Sports Betting Football Line Moves and MLB Top Trends
Sports Betting Football Line Moves and MLB Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
The excitement has been building all week and today at 6:00 PM Eastern, real football starts with the battle of the Carolina’s. This is one of four college football games in which the football bettors have messed with the oddsmakers opening lines. We ask you to review all the line moves and we also share our opinions on the outcomes.
CFB – (133) NORTH CAROLINA at (134) SOUTH CAROLINA 6:00 ET ESPN
The 2013 FBS season kicks off tonight night, as sixth-ranked South Carolina plays host to the North Carolina. The Gamecocks opened as 10.5-point favorite against their neighbors to the north in non-conference action. South Carolina will play two quarterbacks to start the season, with Connor Shaw the better runner and game-manager and Dylan Thompson the better passer. North Carolina is off probation and can play for real in the ACC. Having QB Bryn Renner in his third season starting is a huge plus for UNC coach Larry Fedora. Football bettors are all over the home team raising them to as high as -13.5 points yesterday, before settling at -13. If the Tar Heels can manufacture a semblance of a running game, they will have a chance to cover, if not, DE Jadeveon Clowney and teammates and gear up and rush the passer. SWM Take – Lean with North Carolina
CFB – (137) TULSA at (138) BOWLING GREEN 7:00 ET ESPNU
Tulsa is still the favorite to defend their title as Conference USA champions in spite of heavy personnel losses and travel to Ohio to face the MAC East favorites Bowling Green. The Golden Hurricane will rely on a top notch running game against a very good Falcons defense which returns nine starters after finishing in the top 10 in the nation in both total defense (296.6 ypg) and scoring defense (16.8 ppg). Tulsa only has two starters back on defense and this is where those betting football believe QB Matt Schilz of Bowling Green can exploit the Golden Hurricane and move the total from 48 to 50.5. We still look at the Falcons 10-2 UNDER mark from a year ago and see the trend continuing in the opener. SWM Take – Play Under
CFB – (141) UTAH STATE at (142) UTAH 8:00 ET FS1 (previous entry)
Utah State has covered the last two meetings and won outright as a touchdown underdog a year ago. If coach Gary Anderson was still with the Aggies, they might have held as a Pick, but enough are concerned Utah State might lose their edge even with QB Chuckie Keaton and 15 other starters back. Utah has not always taken the “Battle of the Brothers” rivalry seriously; they might this time as three-point favorites. Update – As of Thursday morning, the number has moved back to 2.5 with Utah still the favorite. Just under 60 percent of sportsbooks checked have the wagers coming in on Utah State. SWM Take – Utah covers
CFB– (147) USC at (148) HAWAII 11:00 ET CBSSN
USC was a colossal failure as the preseason top-ranked team in the country last year and start with dramatically lower expectations in 2013. Head coach Lane Kiffin was deservedly given most of the blame and he remains waist deep in criticism for not naming either Max Wittek or Cody Kessler as the Trojans starting quarterback. Hawaii does not figure to provide much opposition after a 3-9 campaign under second-year coach Norm Chow, having many slots to fill. USC was a three-touchdown favorite and the new numbers is -24 or higher. The Rainbow Warriors are 0-9 SU against non-conference ranked teams, losing by an average of 25.7 PPG. SWM Take – Lean with USC
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Manager Ron Roenicke and the Brewers are 10-32 playing on Thursday’s.
MLB Totals Trend
Manager Fredi Gonzalez and the Braves are 15-4 UNDER at home vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs a game on the season.
MLB Run Line Trend
Manager Eric Wedge and the Mariners are 4-21 after a game where the bullpen threw six or more innings.
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