Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends for this Weekend
Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends for this Weekend
By Doug Upstone
Besides our grouping below, we have witnessed significant college football line moves on Akron, Miami-Fl., Washington, Clemson, Kansas State and San Jose State. Be back here on Sunday when we go over the NFL line moves. Studying line moves can become a very profitable venture if you know what to look for.
CFB – Friday (109) BOISE STATE at (110) BYU 8:00 ET ESPN *New
While BYU’s defense was exposed by the speed of Houston last week, Boise State does not present that kind of challenge. Besides, the Cougars are back home in Provo, where they are allowing 17.7 PPG this season. The total has fallen from 62.5 to 60 and take into consideration the Broncos have a new starting quarterback Grant Hedrick, taking over for in injured Joe Southwick. Hedrick was exceptional last week against Nevada, but that was in Boise. BYU is 10-2 UNDER at home vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per contest on the season. SMW Take – Play Under
CFB – (119) BUFFALO at (120) KENT STATE 3:30 ET ESPN3 *New
Football bettors are ignoring Buffalo’s recent 5-0 SU and ATS record and have flipped them from a 2-point road favorite to a single digit underdog. Evidently they were not impressed with the opponents the Bulls have whipped and are discarding their +14 turnover margin in this stretch. Having all-purpose Dri Archer is a big plus for Kent State, who is 15-6 ATS versus MAC competition the last three years. SMW Take – Buffalo covers
CFB – (123) HOUSTON at (125) RUTGERS 12:00 ET ESPN News
For those betting football, it is impossible to ignore the speed of Houston. They are easily the fastest team in the AAC and while they might lack size at many positions, they do have a quickness edge, which is the primary reason why they have fallen from +9 to +7. The Cougars are 6-0 ATS this season and 13-3 ATS if they gained 6.75 yards or more yards per play in their last game. Update – On the Thursday, Rutgers was down to -6.5 but by Friday was back to -7. Houston is the betting choice in seven of 10 wagers. SMW Take – Lean with Houston
CFB – (125) BOSTON COLLEGE at (126) NORTH CAROLINA 3:30 ET FSN Affliates
Boston College is already 3-0 ATS in ACC action and the betting odds are following them for their matchup with North Carolina. The Eagles have flown south from +9 to +7.5 against the disappointing Tar Heels, who are 1-5 and off a bitter loss to the Hurricanes. Just remember, B.C. is 1-7 against the number after facing Clemson. Update – The money trail has continued on Boston College, now listed under a touchdown underdog with almost 80 percent backing. SMW Take – Lean with Boston College
CFB – (135) TEMPLE at (136) SMU 3:00 ET ESPN3 *New
Is SMU going to make a run towards another bowl bid in spite of a 2-4 record? At least some of those making college football picks think so, bumping the Mustangs from -10.5 to -14. The reasoning is simple, SMU is ninth in passing offense in the country at 354 yards and Temple is 116th in passing defense and that is after facing option running team Army. Here is where it gets strange; the Ponies are 2-10 ATS against defenses allowing eight or more passing yards per attempt under coach June Jones. SMW Take – Lean with Temple
CFB – (139) ARIZONA at (140) COLORADO 8:00 ET PAC12N
Colorado ended their three-game losing streak against FCS Charleston Southern 43-10 as 27-point favorites and will have a better indication if they are really improving when they host Arizona. For those making college football picks, they are backing the Buffalos, lowering them from +16.5 to +15. Nevertheless, difficult to ignore Colorado is 3-15 ATS facing teams with winning records. Update – On Thursday, the Buffs were roaming at +12.5. However, a slight buyback was in the works and Arizona was at -13 by Friday afternoon with just over 50 percent support. SMW Take – Lean with Colorado
CFB – (143) FLORIDA ATLANTIC at (144) AUBURN 7:30 ET ESPN3
What a difference a coach makes. Last year, Auburn was 3-9 and Gene Chizik was fired two years after winning national championship. Enter Gus Malzahn, the former offensive coordinator, and the Tigers turnaround has them at 6-1. Off Auburn’s upset at Texas A&M, this is a true flat spot and the Tigers are down from -26 to -24.5. Florida Atlantic is 10-1 ATS as a road underdog. Update – The most common numbers for this nonconference clash are 23.5 or 24 and the Tigers are a 2-to-1 choice by the betting public. SMW Take – Florida Atlantic covers
CFB – (155) WEST VIRGINIA at (156) KANSAS STATE 3:45 ET FS1
Neither Big 12 team has been in good form, but Kansas State is getting the benefit of the doubt from football bettors, who have altered the college football line on this game. The Wildcats opened at -9 and have jumped to -10.5 and they are 6-0 ATS after one or more losses the past few years. This just seems like a lot of points for K-State to hand out. Update – In spite of the wagering action almost a dead heat, K-State has zoomed to -11.5. SMW Take – Lean with Kansas State
CFB – (161) N.C. STATE at (136) FLORIDA STATE 3:30 ET ABC/ESPN2 *New
The wagering public loved what they saw from Florida State in executing Clemson in Death Valley. The Seminoles are 8-2 SU, but only 4-6 ATS against N.C. State in Tallahassee in the last 10 meetings, but the Noles have grown as favorites by four points to 32.5. This appears to be a flat spot for FSU with Miami- FL up next, yet they are 9-1 ATS at home after gaining 575 or more total yards in their last two games. SMW Take – Lean with Florida State
CFB – (169) UNLV at (170) NEVADA 6:00 ET ESPN3
In the battle for the ‘Fremont Street Cannon’, the home team is 10-3 ATS since 2000 and Nevada has covered the last five in a row. The Wolf Pack is drawing the vast majority of the support and has been shifted from -4.5 to -6. After being a deplorable road team for years, UNLV has two road covers this season, the most in six years. Update – About half the sportsbooks have taken the home team to -6.5 and they are being bet 70 percent of the time. SMW Take – UNLV covers
CFB – (191) OKLAHOMA STATE at (396) IOWA STATE 12:00 ET PSN Affiliates
It is unusual to not see Oklahoma State averaging at or above 40 points on the season, but this Cowboys team is less explosive and does not have the quarterback play, which is why the offense is down a bit to 35.7 PPG. This condition impacts their road conflict at Iowa State and they have crumbled from -15 to -13.5. The Cyclones are 5-2 SU and ATS when Okie State visits. Update – The support for Cowboys has continued to wane, now positioned at -12.5 or -13. The wagering is a couple ticks from 50-50. SMW Take – Iowa State covers
More Betting News – The Top 5 most popular teams football bettors are backing based on wagers are in this order: North Texas, Georgia Tech, Buffalo, Louisville and Clemson…..The Top 5 OVER bets (percentage) are listed with these home teams: Oregon State, Nevada, UTSA, Texas State and Rice…..The Top 5 UNDER bets (percentage) are with these home teams: Florida International, UMass, UCF, Illinois and Colorado
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
California is 0-10 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70.
CFB Totals Trend
Akron is 10-0 UNDER after playing a MAC game the last two seasons.
CFB Money Line Trend
Fresno State is 1-6 after gaining 525 or more total yards in two consecutive games.
CFB First Half Line Trend
Virginia is 0-9 at home after a game where they forced one or less turnovers since 2011.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
