Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends for Saturday
Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends for Saturday
By Doug Upstone
Conference play begins in earnest as October college football begins and we have all the latest Line Moves information. Check back Sunday right here for the NFL version of this article. Studying line moves can become a very profitable venture if you know what to look for.
CFB – (323) GEORGIA STATE at (324) ALABAMA 12:21 ET SECN/ESPN3 New*
The top-ranked Crimson Tide opened as 56.5 point favorites in this almost embarrassing non-conference skirmish against Georgia State. It is clear Alabama can dictate whatever final score they choose, but those betting football are taking the points at almost an 80-percent clip and the Panthers are down to +54. Bama is 7-0 ATS in October, but would dare bet this game either way? SMW Take – Lean with Georgia State
CFB – (333) GEORGIA TECH at (334) MIAMI-FL 3:30 ET ESPNU New*
The Hurricanes believe they are serious contenders in the ACC and they very well could be with their 10-2 ATS record against winning teams. After being upset at home by Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech knows another loss and any hopes they have of winning the ACC Coastal Division are kaput. Those placing college football bets definitely prefer the home team, lifting them from -4.5 to touchdown favorites. SMW Take – Miami covers
CFB – (341) UTSA at (342) MARSHALL 2:00 ET
In just their third year at the FBS level, UT-San Antonio has given a good accounting of themselves and has joined Conference USA. Larry Coker, the former Miami-Fl. head coach, is in charge of the Roadrunners, who play exciting football. UTSA has gone from +13 to +14.5 because the three best offensive teams they have faced, the Roadrunners are allowing 51 PPG. Say hello to Marshall who is averaging 39.7 PPG. Update – Some sportsbooks have kept Marshall at -14.5, but about 65 percent are at -14. The Thundering Herd is attracting almost two-thirds of the wagering action. SMW Take – Marshall covers
CFB – (349) ARKANSAS at (350) FLORIDA 7:00 ET ESPN2 New*
With Florida having to adjust its offense and Arkansas a running team under new coach Bret Bielema, the ESPN Sports Center announcers should not plan on a three hour telecast. Both teams figure to run the ball, but the Gators are thought to have more bite playing in Gainesville and have been beefed up from -10 to -12. Curious to watch if Florida does work on its passing game with trips to Baton Rouge, Columbia and Jacksonville (Georgia) the next three contests. The Hogs are 0-10 ATS after playing at home. SMW Take – Florida covers
CFB – (359) CINCINNATI at (360) SOUTH FLORIDA 7:00 ET ESPN3
South Florida might be 0-4 (1-3 ATS), but because Cincinnati gave a dull 14-0 performance against Miami-O as a 24.5-point favorite without QB Munchie Legaux, the Bearcats have been lowered from -13 to -11.5. Cincy has been the better team in this series with a 7-3 and 8-2 ATS record, including 4-1 ATS in away games. Update – Roughly half the books are back to a dozen points. When this article was released, this was the most one-sided game bet in terms of wagers placed. SMW Take – Cincinnati covers
CFB – (365) MINNESOTA at (366) MICHIGAN 3:30 ET ABC/ESPN2 New*
We thought we knew who Michigan was after they beat Notre Dame, but after discombobulated performances against Akron and UConn, the Wolverines have fallen out of favor. Michigan was three touchdown betting choice over Minnesota, but that has tumbled two points to -19. These teams play for the ‘Little Brown Jug’ trophy, but it should be called “Michigan’s little brown jug” since won 21 of the past 22 meetings, including the past five by an average of 28.2 points. The Wolverines are 12-5 ATS of late in this matchup. SMW Take – Michigan covers
CFB – (371) FRESNO STATE at (372) IDAHO 5:00 ET
It’s a given Fresno State will score, averaging 44 PPG, yet they are 0-4 ATS because their defense is conceding 38 PPG. This is not stopping bettors making college football picks, elevating the Bulldogs two points to -26. Idaho is off a rare home upset over Temple, but Fresno State hung 42 points on Hawai’i and is 16-4 ATS after scoring 35 points or more in a conference game victory.
Update – Fresno State has gone up one more digit to -27, though the betting action is nearly 50-50. SMW Take – Idaho covers
CFB – (377) NEW. MEX. STATE at (378) NEW MEXICO 7:00 ET RSRM
Annually, this rivalry comes up short when listed among the classics in college football, but in this ‘Land of Enchantment’ battle, it means something to the locals. Both New Mexico universities are headed towards losing season again; however, the Lobos are a rising favorite from 8 to 9.5. New Mexico is 10-1 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite. Update – The Lobos are either at -9.5 or -10 and being backed 70% by those on this contest. SMW Take – New Mexico covers
CFB – (365) WASHINGTON at (366) STANFORD 10:30 ET ESPN New*
Important Pac-12 battle and the highly-ranked Cardinal are getting the cash, at least in terms of college football picks. Stanford opened at -6.5 and has flown to -8.5, based on the belief they are the more physical squad who is a proven commodity. It does not hurt the Cardinal are 10-0 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game the last three seasons. SMW Take – Lean with Stanford
CFB – (393) FLORIDA ATLANTIC at (394) UAB 3:00 ET
Florida Atlantic is only 1-4, yet is playing opponents tough with a 3-1-1 ATS record. The Owls possibly could have a couple more wins but have been held back by a -7 turnover margin. With FAU 9-1 ATS on the road under second-year coach Carl Pelini, the Owls have been bet down to +4 from +6 betting odds. Update – Since Tuesday, the trend has been reversing and the Blazers are mostly 5-point faves, with over 65% support. SMW Take – Lean with FAU
CFB – (407) OHIO STATE at (408) NORTHWESTERN 8:00 ET ABC
Ohio State has been among the most impressive college football teams all year, though they are having problems defending the pass. Sportsbooks sent the Buckeyes out as -4 or -4.5 point road favorites and this has been built up to -6. Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald with his Wildcats ready, nonetheless, Ohio State is 6-0 ATS away playing against a team with a winning record. Update – The Buckeyes are up to a solid seven points, with a nearly 4-to-1 bet ratio. SMW Take – Ohio State covers
Betting News – The Top 5 most wagered on teams (by volume, not dollars) are: Cincinnati, Miami-Fl., Oregon, Buffalo and East Carolina…..The Top 5 OVER bets are on these home teams: Buffalo, UAB, Idaho, Vanderbilt and Louisiana…..The Top 5 UDER bets are on these home teams: Wake Forest, Tulsa, Hawai’I, South Florida and Memphis.
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
Colorado is 0-10 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 over the last few seasons.
CFB Totals Trend
Baylor is 10-0 OVER after a win by 17 or more points the last three seasons.
CFB First Half Line Trend
Navy is 2-14 in home games off one or more consecutive Under’s.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
