Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends for Saturday
Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends for Saturday
By Doug Upstone
After a couple of Thursday contests which helped reshape the national landscape, we move ahead to Saturday and review all the college football line moves, from earlier in the week and the new ones. Studying line moves can become a very profitable venture if you know what to look for. Be back here Sunday for the latest from the NFL.
CFB – (123) SMU at (124) CINCINNATI 12:00 ET ESPN3 *New
While Cincinnati might be 6-2, many college football handicappers and bettors alike see the Bearcats having played a soft slate and are not all that impressed with what Tommy Tuberville has done in his first year. Hard to argue, as the two Cincinnati defeats were to Illinois and South Florida, who are a combined 5-11 SU. The Bearcats have stumbled from -10 to -8 home favorites for this AAC encounter and the justification might not be all there. SMU has won their last two contests, however, defeating Memphis and Temple (2-14 combined) is not cause for celebration. We do acknowledge the Mustangs June Jones is 9-2 ATS versus defenses allowing 120 or fewer rushing yards, but let’s just take the whole picture into context. SWM Take – Lean with Cincinnati
CFB – (135) UAB at (136) MARSHALL 12:00 ET CSS *New
Marshall moving from -21 to -23.5 like a thundering herd has credibility, because, well, they are the Thundering Herd. At home, Marshall is averaging 50.5 PPG and UAB would not be on Craig’s List as “Road Warriors”, at 1-4 SU and ATS and conceding over 43 points a contest away from Birmingham. The Blazers are 0-6 ATS in road games after playing at home since last season. SWM Take – Marshall covers
CFB – (151) TULANE at (152) UTSA 2:00 ET
One of the most consistent teams to have lines move towards them has been UTSA. The Roadrunners 5-3 ATS record does not indicate unusual skill, yet six of their games have moved at least 1.5 points at some time this season. Once again, UTSA is on the move, lifted two points to -9 against Tulane. The Roadrunners are 4-16 ATS vs. winning teams. Update – The line has not moved despite the Green Wave attracting 70 percent of the action. SWM Take – Lean with Tulane
CFB – (153) FRESNO STATE at (154) WYOMING 10:15 ET ESPN2
Fresno State might be 8-0, but they are not attracting positive vibes with those making sports picks with their 2-6 ATS mark. The Bulldogs have lost some bite, down from -14 to -10 for their trip to Laramie. After a good start to the season, Wyoming is 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four contests and will have has two weeks to fix what has been wrong. Update – After briefly going down to 9 points on Thursday, we have witnessed the number hedging back to 9.5 or 10 points. Almost 60 percent are on the favorite. SWM Take – Wyoming covers
CFB – (161) NEVADA at (162) COLORADO STATE 3:30 ET
Colorado State may have lost to Boise State, yet they racked up 626 yards on the Broncos and are averaging 40.6 PPG since facing Alabama five games ago. With Nevada on a four-game losing streak, those betting football have lifted the Rams from -7 to -9. Nevada is allowing 6.4 yards a carry this season and they are 2-12 ATS when they concede 5.5 or higher. Update – Here is another MWC matchup which is going backwards with Colorado State primarily at -8.5 and a few sportsbooks at -8 with 70 percent backing. SWM Take – Colorado State covers
CFB – (163) COLORADO at (164) WASHINGTON 8:00 ET PAC-12N
After a descent start, Colorado is laboring against better competition and is 0-5 and 1-4 ATS in league action. Washington ended their three-game losing streak the last time out and wants to have their house in order before a treacherous road trip. With the Buffalos 10-23 ATS since joining the Pac-12, they have roamed from +26 to +28, heading to Seattle. Update – Like the nearby Cascade Mountains, this Pac-12 number has not budged an inch. Washington has 80 percent of the action. SWM Take – Lean with Washington
CFB – (179) NOTRE DAME at (180) PITTSBURGH 8:00 ET ABC
The Fighting Irish have won four in a row and have to keep winning to keep their dim hopes alive of reaching the BCS mix. Four of the previous five battles with Pittsburgh have been determined by five or fewer points, which is why it was a slight surprise to see Notre Dame rise from -3.5 to -5. Pitt is 6-0 ATS after losing two of three. Update – A definite buyback with Pittsburgh back to +4 or +4.5, in spite of having less than 30% of the wagers placed on them. SWM Take – Notre Dame covers
CFB – (189) ARKANSAS STATE at (190) UL-MONROE 7:00 ET ESPN3 *New
Have to admit, mildly surprised to see the home team be stripped from -6 to -3 with how they are playing. UL-Monroe has won and covered a trio of contests and has talented Kolton Browning back under center. Granted, Arkansas State has had the Warhawks number with three wins and covers and has done a great job slowing them, holding Monroe to just over 20 points a game, well below their Sun Belt average. The winner still stays in the conference chase and the Red Wolves have been money late in year with their 12-3 ATS record in the second half of the season since 2011. SWM Take – Lean with UL-Monroe
CFB – (197) UCLA at (198) ARIZONA 10:00 ET ESPN *New
The last time UCLA went to Tucson and came home a winner was 2003 and football bettors are banking on that streak continuing. The Bruins opened a one-pointfavorites and have steadily been bet to +2 point road underdogs. Arizona can play the revenge card, having been ambushed in L.A. last season 66-10 by the Bruins. This is a pretty difficult call since UCLA is 5-15 ATS on the road after scoring 42 or more points and the Wildcats are 3-12 ATS after posting three consecutive W’s. SWM Take – Lean with Arizona
CFB – (199) LSU at (200) ALABAMA 8:00 ET CBS
Football bettors are saying “Roll Tide Roll”, moving Alabama from -10.5 to -13. With LSU vulnerable to the run, how they will contain the Crimson Tide’s running game is a major concern. Chance are it will be left up to QB Zach Mettenberger and the offense to make a close confrontation and the Tigers are 7-3 and 6-2-2 ATS at Bama. Update – Just a minor regression on the country’s top team to 12.5 points. Just over 55% are thinking the Tide will roll. SWM Take – Lean with LSU
More Betting News – The Top 5 teams football bettors are backing by percentage are in this order: North Texas, Louisiana Tech, Missouri, Mid. Tenn. State and Minnesota…..The Top 5 OVER plays by percent looking the home teams are: Wake Forest, Colorado State, Navy, Texas A&M and San Jose State…..The Top 5 UNDER plays by percent looking at home teams are: Mid. Tenn. State, Duke, UTSA, Florida and Pittsburgh.
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
Arkansas is 0-12 ATS after playing a game at home over last two seasons.
CFB Totals Trend
Oklahoma State is 13-0 OVER at home after scoring 37 points or more in two straight contests.
CFB First Half Line Trend
USC is 9-0 ATS against teams outscored by 17 or more points per game on the season.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
