Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends for Saturday
Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends for Saturday
By Doug Upstone
Besides the lineup of college football line moves we have below, East Carolina, Arizona, Boise State, Oklahoma, Toledo and Northern Illinois have all moved at least two points since Tuesday in sides action. I will go over the other newest line moves on the board plus check in on the earlier ones I introduced on Tuesday. Make sure to be back here on Sunday for the NFL line moves. Studying line moves can become a very profitable venture if you know what to look for.
CFB – (319) PURDUE at (320) MICHIGAN STATE 12:00 ET BTN
If Purdue fans were disappointed with former coach Danny Hope’s final season at 6-6, with the Boilermakers at 1-5 SU and ATS and losing by 22.3 PPG, they are already making plans for the basketball season. Purdue travels to East Lansing where they are 2-7 ATS recently and they are up two points to +26.5 against Michigan State. Update – The Purdue blood-letting continues with the Boilermakers up to +27.5 or +28, with less than 40 percent of bets placed on the sixth-worst scoring offense. SMW Take – Lean with Michigan State
CFB – (327) TEXAS TECH at (328) WEST VIRGINIA 12:00 ET FS1 *New
The wise guys have been all over this Big 12 battle since Tuesday, lowering Texas Tech from -8 to -5. The thinking is West Virginia already has knocked off Oklahoma State in Morgantown, is rested after the Baylor beatdown and the Red Raiders are unbeaten, playing freshmen quarterbacks. All of those factors matter, along with Texas Tech averaging almost three turnovers a contest in their past five victories. The Mountaineers are 7-0 ATS after being outrushed by 200 or more yards in their last game. SMW Take – Lean with West Virginia
CFB – (333) CONNECTICUT at (334) CINCINNATI 12:00 ET ESPNU
Cincinnati has failed to cover their previous three games and have fallen from -16 to -14 point home favorites in this AAC clash. What makes this odd is Connecticut is winless and the only game they have covered was a magical night against Michigan. With the Huskies 8-18 ATS the past three years, hard to supports these dogs. Update – Universally, the Bearcats are up over the key number to -14.5 and being picked almost 70 percent of the time. SMW Take – Cincinnati covers
CFB – (357) NORTH TEXAS at (358) LOUISIANA TECH 3:30 ET CBSSN *New
At first, a bit of a frown for North Texas being dumped from -6.5 to -3.5 at Louisiana Tech until looking a little deeper. If we forget about the Mean Green at Georgia setback, they failed to win or cover at Ohio U. (+3) or at Tulane (-3) with short numbers. The Bulldogs are hardly imposing with a 2-4 mark and are tied for 106th in scoring at 20 points a game. The adjustment appears to be correct and we find home squad is 11-3 ATS as an underdog the last three seasons. SMW Take – Lean with Louisiana Tech
CFB – (365) LSU at (366) MISSISSIPPI 7:00 ET ESPN2
Points will not be in short supply in this SEC encounter. Ole Miss has been a big disappointment at 3-3 and though it covered against Texas A&M and should have beaten them, a pedestrian defense is being thinned by injury. Nevertheless, LSU is 5-14 ATS after two or more covers and Rebels coach Hugh Freeze is 23-8 ATS lifetime. The Tigers fell from -9 to -7.5. Update – A big time reversal! LSU has not only gone back to the starting number, they are evenly split at wagering outlets at -9.5 or even -10. Over 85% are participating in the change. SMW Take – Lean with LSU
CFB – (371) GEORGIA STATE at (372) TEXAS STATE 7:00 ET ESPN3
Georgia State might be an unsightful 0-6 on the season, but they look like Kate Upton having covered four in a row. This is reason enough for the Panthers to draw wagering support and they have tumbled from -20 to -17.5. In addition, Texas State has failed to cover both times they have been a favorite this season. Update – Texas State continues to be a falling favorite, priced anywhere from -16 to -17. Close to 50% are on the underdog. SMW Take – Texas State covers
CFB – (381) UCLA at (382) STANFORD 3:30 ET ABC/ESPN2
Stanford has shown vulnerability all season and was finally caught at Utah. The Cardinals have to regroup quickly or the Pac-12 North will be over before they face Oregon. UCLA is an imposing challenge with its No. 7 scoring offense (45.8 PPG) and its defense is much improved. Stanford has gone from -7 to -4.5, but is 5-0 and 4-1 ATS vs. the Bruins since 2009. Update – At present, the offshore sportsbooks have stayed with Stanford at -4.5, however in Sin City, the Cardinal have flow to -5 or -5.5. Almost 55 percent are following the home team. SMW Take – Lean with Stanford
CFB – (385) RICE at (386) NEW MEXICO STATE 8:00 ET ESPN3
College football bettors are riding the ‘ugly home dog’ theory, as New Mexico State at 0-6 (1-5 ATS) is down two points to +17.5 against Rice. It is difficult to make a case for the Aggies unless you buy into the belief the Owls will not give a hoot and go through the motions and just want to win the game. The Aggies are 0-10 and 3-7 ATS vs. winning teams. Update – The number has come back slightly on the Owls to -18 and they are attracting almost 95 percent of wagers. SMW Take – Rice covers
CFB – (389) WISCONSIN at (390) ILLINOIS 8:00 ET BTN *New
Illinois might have a new improved offense averaging 36 points a contest, but to those betting football, the Illini have lost 15 straight conference clashes (3-12 ATS) and against stronger offensive team like Wisconsin, they look very beatable. The Fighting Illini is not being thought of to put up much of a fight, blowing up from +10 to +14 point home underdogs. The Badgers rushing offense is averaging 298.2 YPG (5th in the country) and if Illinois surrendered 300 or more yards on the ground, they are an abysmal 2-26 ATS. SMW Take – Wisconsin covers
CFB – (391) GEORGIA at (392) VANDERBILT 12:00 ET CBS *New
All the injuries on both sides of the ball finally caught up Georgia, who fell at home to Missouri 41-26. Football bettors are thinking QB Aaron Murray cannot do it alone and the inexperience around showed in the loss to the Tigers. The Bulldogs began as 9-point road favorite and are down to -6.5.The most promising news for Georgia is RB Todd Gurley is reported close to returning, which helps the offense. Vanderbilt is coming off a bye week and is 0-10 and 3-7 ATS hosting Georgia since 1993. SMW Take – Georgia covers
CFB – (395) UNLV at (396) FRESNO STATE 10:00 ET
At this juncture of the season, Fresno State qualifies as BCS buster at 5-0 and looks to take the next step along the journey. They will face UNLV in a Mountain West clash, who has not had a winning record this late in the season since a quarterback named Randall Cunningham played for the Rebels (1984). Nevertheless, the Bulldogs have risen from -20.5 to -23, with UNLV 4-13 ATS as road underdogs. Update – The onslaught of cash continues on Fresno State, now up to -24.5, at an almost 2-1 wagering ration. SMW Take – Fresno State covers
More Betting News – The Top 5 most wagered on teams (individual bets) against the spread (in order) are: Rice, Oregon State Wisconsin, East Carolina and LSU…..The Top 5 OVER plays are on these home teams: Central Michigan, New Mexico, Boise State, Virginia and Miami-O…..The Top 5 UNDER plays are on these home teams: Louisiana Tech, Houston, Buffalo, Memphis and Eastern Michigan.
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
Arkansas is 0-11 ATS after playing a game at home since last season.
CFB Money Line Trend
Auburn is 15-1 after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games.
CFB Totals Trend
Alabama is 19-3 UNDER at home after five or more consecutive straight up wins.
CFB First Half Trend
Oregon is 12-2 ATS after a win by 21 or more points the last two seasons.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
