Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends for Saturday
Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends for Saturday
By Doug Upstone
I am guilty of letting one game go, with Troy tumbling from -19 to -16.5 at Georgia State. I thought that might be as well read as – Who’s the Boss, Where are they Now? Anyways, here is the latest on college football line moves, with several new additions and free picks. Studying line moves can become a very profitable venture if you know what to look for.
CFB – (111) OKLAHOMA vs. (112) TEXAS 12:00 ET ABC
For all the hoopla surrounding the Red River Rivalry, it seldom is a compelling game. Since 1998, only once has a game been decided by less than a touchdown and the average margin of victory has been 23.2 points. It could be more of the same with Oklahoma being lifted from -13 to 15. The Sooners have won and covered three straight. Update – Starting Friday morning, the cash started flowing in this RRR and Oklahoma is up to -14, at almost 80 percent of wagering outlets. Over 80% are riding the Sooners. SWM Take – Lean with Texas
CFB – (119) BOSTON COLLEGE at (120) CLEMSON 3:30 ET ABC/ESPN2
Clemson has a lot of NFL body-types on their roster and they overwhelm opposing teams with their skill and athleticism. Though Boston College gave Florida State a game at home, this is a road contest in Death Valley and Clemson has won its past four outings by 33.7 PPG. Little wonder the Tigers have gone from -23 to -26. Update – A definite buyback, with Clemson having receded back to -24 or -24.5. Part of the hesitation is the Tigers focus, with Florida State on tap. B.C. is attracting 55 percent of wagers. SWM Take – Lean with Clemson
CFB – (137) KENT STATE at (138) BALL STATE 3:00 ET ESPN3
Ball State became the latest MAC team to knock off a BCS opponent (Virginia) and improved to 5-1. The Cardinals are considered a legitimate threat Northern Illinois in the MAC West and are a growing favorite over Kent State, up 1.5-points to -16.5. Ball State is 14-5 ATS since last year and 6-0 ATS as a home favorite. Update – In a mildly dumbfounding turn of events, Ball State have fallen below their original release and is found presently at -14 or -14.5. Kent State bettors number just over 40 percent. SWM Take – Ball State covers
CFB – (139) BOWLING GREEN at (140) MISS. STATE 7:30 ET ESPN3
Bowling Green could present challenges to Mississippi State, depending on their frame of mind. The Falcons are a solid defensive club, but lack the foot speed to stay with the Bulldogs who are in a SEC sandwich and off a bitter defeat. The wagering public prefers the SEC and moved Miss. State two points to -11. The Bulldogs are 12-4 ATS as home favorites. Update – Of no surprise to this reporter, Mississippi State has back up to -10. Not saying Bowling Green is the play, but as stated, the Bulldogs are iffy this week to be at their best. Nonetheless, almost 90 percent prefer the SEC home squad. SWM Take – Slight Lean with Miss. State
CFB – (143) IOWA STATE at (144) TEXAS TECH 12:00 ET FS1 *New
Kliff Kingsbury can become the first coach in Texas Tech football history to start his career 6-0. And while nobody is suggesting he will not, the line on the game has gone from the Red Raiders favored by 16 to 14 points. The concern is the possible loss quarterback Baker Mayfield, who ranks second in the Big 12 in passing, with a knee injury. But Iowa State is off a deflating defeat to Texas, has to go on the road and is 3-14 ATS away off a loss by seven points or less to a conference foe. SWM Take – Texas Tech covers
CFB – (145) RICE at (146) UT- SAN ANTONIO 4:00 ET *New
UTSA moving from a 3.5-point home underdog to a 1.5-point favorite was quite a surprise. At first I thought Rice had a couple of injuries, which proved untrue. While I and others are impressed with the Roadrunners offense, the defense is allowing 35.2 PPG. Consider this: Home teams like USTA when the line is +3 to -3, off one or more consecutive Under’s, in a game involving two average offensive teams (21-28 PPG), are 15-47 ATS. SWM Take – Rice covers
CFB – (157) BAYLOR at (158) KANSAS STATE 3:30 ET FOX
A strong case could be made Baylor has been the most impressive team in college football, particularly on offense, averaging 70.5 PPG. However, this is their first road adventure, where trouble can lurk. This has been especially true for the Bears who are 1-8 and 2-7 ATS on the Big 12 road in the last nine tries. Baylor is down two digits to -18. Update – Sharps are on the home underdog, lowering the number to +17.5, in spite of 88% backing on the Bears. SWM Take – Kansas State covers
CFB – (161) COLORADO at (162) ARIZONA STATE 10:00 ET PAC12N
Arizona State frenetic-style was kept under wraps long enough to lose to Notre Dame. The Sun Devils can now focus their attention on what really matters, winning the Pac-12 South and can take the new step by crushing Colorado. Football bettors think this happen and pushed the fierce forks from -24 to -26. The Buffalos are 0-7 ATS against teams scoring 37 or more points. Update – The betting market is satisfied with earlier adjustment. ASU has over 75% wagering support. SWM Take – Arizona State covers
CFB – (181) SYRACUSE at (182) N.C. STATE 3:30 ET ESPN3
It is a bit surprising to see this ACC confrontation draw attention with both squads off decided defeats. N.C. State opened at -4.5 and was shoved to -6 and has not shown any skills to warrant being a larger favorite. The one shining light for the Wolfpack is they are 8-1 ATS at after the first month of the season at Carter-Finley Stadium. Update – While a few books are at 6.5, the large major have elevated the Wolfpack to touchdown favorites, with six out 10 football bettors riding them. SWM Take – N.C. State covers
CFB – (183) MEMPHIS at (184) HOUSTON 12:00 ET ESPN News *New
Memphis is playing much better football under second-year coach Justin Fuente, having beaten the spread in three straight games. The Tigers are getting even more love and have been lowered from +11.5 to +9 at Houston. Here is why I think this could be wrong. In spite of Memphis showing better, they are -5 in turnover margin in those contests. The Cougars on the other hand are 4-0 SU and ATS this season and +11 in turnover margin and have superior speed edge. SWM Take – Houston covers
CFB – (187) MARSHALL at (188) FLORIDA ATLANTIC 7:00 ET DTV623 *New
Kudos to FAU head coach Carl Pelini, who has made the Owls give hoot. Florida Atlantic is playing just their second home game (2-4 SU) and proved its ability to play with heart, sporting a 4-0-1 ATS road record. This is enough to draw those betting football towards the home team and the Owls have swopped from +13 to +10.5 versus Marshall in this C-USA confrontation. FAU is 12-4 ATS under Pelini when catching points. SWM Take – Lean with Florida Atlantic
Other Betting News – Here are the Top 5 teams in order of bets placed the public is backing: Northern Illinois, Maryland, Ohio U., Nebraska and UAB……Here is the Top 7 OVER bets as listed by the home teams (they were all equally bet): Duke, Georgia State, Mississippi State, Arizona State, Arkansas State and UNLV…..……Here is the Top 5 UNDER bets as listed by the home teams: North Texas, Houston, Colorado State, UMass and BYU
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
Arkansas State is 14-1 ATS off one or more consecutive Under’s the last three seasons.
CFB Totals Trend
South Florida is 12-0 UNDER after a win by six or less points.
CFB First Half Trend
California is 3-14 in all games since last season.
CFB Money Line Trend
Washington State is 1-10 vs. passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 58% or higher the last three years.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
