Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends
Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
On Friday, besides the games listed below, the college football line moves have made Ohio U. Bowling Green, LSU and Oregon larger favorites by at least 1.5 points. On Saturday, besides what we have already posted, Rutgers and South Alabama has fallen by two points are road faves. Studying line moves can become a very profitable venture if you know what to look for. Be back here on Sunday for the NFL line moves.
CFB – Friday (333) SOUTH FLORIDA at (334) CENTRAL FLORIDA 8:00 ET ESPN
Central Florida continues its quest to win the AAC and snag the automatic invite to the BCS. The Knights face in-state partner South Florida, who is having another despicable season at 2-8 and the Bulls have been taken from +25 to +27. UCF should have no trouble winning, but USF coach Willie Taggert is an amazing 17-2 ATS for the teams he’s coached in his college career. Update – Roughly half the sportsbooks checked have stuck with 27 and the rest are at 26.5. UCF has nearly 70% backing. SMW Take – Lean with South Florida
CFB – Friday (339) WASHINGTON STATE at (340) WASHINGTON 3:30 ET FOX *New
Washington righted the ship in wiping out Oregon State last week and goes after its first 8-win season since 2001 in the Apple Cup. Football bettors certainly like their chances moving them from -14 to -16.5 in afternoon action. These kinds of rivalry games can be tricky to forecast and with Washington State off a pair of wins and 8-3 ATS on the season, it would appear to be even more so. The key for the Huskies would appear to be reaching 28 points, since they are 16-6 ATS when do so, winning by more than 17 points a contest. SMW Take – Lean with Washington
CFB – (345) OHIO STATE at (346) MICHIGAN 12:00 ET ABC
For only the second time in 20 years, the road team will be favored by 10 or more points, as No. 3 Ohio State tries to stay unbeaten. The betting public certainly likes their chances, moving the Buckeyes from -12 to -14.5, as Michigan’s season has turned into a major disappointment. The Wolverines are 2-10 ATS at home after being outgained by 175 or more total yards. Update – According to line moves, this is heading to blowout territory, with Ohio State at -16 and couple of -17’s are popping up, with the number likely headed there in “The Big Game”. Over 85 percent are pounding the Buckeyes. SMW Take – Lean with Ohio State
CFB – (355) IOWA STATE at (356) WEST VIRGINIA 4:00 ET FS1 *New
This is a nothing game in the Big 12, other than the curiosity of those wagering on football making this contest taking on added significance. Iowa State is the people choice, at least according to sportsbooks, as the Cyclones were dumped two points to +7. In looking over the stats, the justification does not seem overwhelming for this large of a shift other then Iowa State coming off it its first Big 12 shutout in 12 years. SMW Take – Lean with Iowa State
CFB – (367) TEMPLE at (368) MEMPHIS 12:00 ET ESPN News
While these teams have just four wins between them, Memphis is getting the call being taken from -7 to -9. The Tigers edge is they have the superior defense (20.9 vs. 30.6 points per game allowed) and are 7-0 ATS in November the last two years. But Temple is a fantastic 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season and deserves a look. Update – Most of the Nevada wagering outlets still have Memphis at -9, with most offshore places at -8.5 or even -8.Temple is catching almost 60% of the action. SMW Take – Temple covers
CFB – (375) COLORADO at (376) UTAH 2:00 ET PAC-12N
These Pac-12 squads might both have 4-7 records, but according to oddsmakers, that is where the similarity ends. Utah has been pumped up from -14 to -17 and the case is made playing in conference. Each team is 0-6 and 2-4 ATS, but the Utes have lost by 10.1 points a game, while the Buffaloes have been blown out by 28.8 PPG. Figure the difference and the spread makes sense. Update – About 50 percent of the sportsbooks looked into have dropped Utah to -16 or -16.5, with the rest still holding from the early week adjustment. Not quite 65% are on the home team. SMW Take – Lean with Utah
CFB – (379) TULANE at (380) RICE 3:00 ET FCS *New
Rice can wrap up C-USA West with a victory and head to the championship game. While this is big news for the Owls, the task might not be all that simple and Rice has been pushed from -13 to -10. Here is the rub, if Rice were to be upset and UTSA was to be defeated, the Green Wave are the division champs. Tulane can only control what they can do in this matchup and they are 8-3 ATS this season and 15-6 ATS under coach Curtis Johnson since last year. The key to the game will be Rice’s No. 14nationally ranked rush offense against Tulane’s No. 15 run defense. The Owls are a nasty 18-6 ATS versus conference competition at home, but I found their margin of victory was only 6.8 PPG. SMW Take – Tulane covers
CFB – (401) LOUISIANA TECH at (402) UTSA 3:30 ET CSBA
It has been a remarkable job by veteran coach Larry Coker, who has UTSA bowl eligible in just their second season of FBS football and first in Conference USA. In fact, if Rice was to lose at home to Tulane and the Roadrunners win this contest, they would win the West Division and play for the C-USA title. UTSA has been elevated from -14 to -16. Update – Other than a couple of stragglers, the 16 points has held and UTSA is the play by 95 percent of those betting this contest! SMW Take – UTSA covers
CFB – (409) NORTH TEXAS at (410) TULSA 2:30 ET FSN Affiliates
North Texas was thoroughly out-played in their home finale against UTSA which ended their hopes of playing in the Conference USA championship. The Mean Green will look to instead finish the regular season on a 6-1 SU and ATS roll and is up two points to -5 at Tulsa. This has been an abysmal campaign for the Golden Hurricane and they are 1-4 SU and ATS at home. Update – A bit of a buyback to 4.5 points with concerns about North Texas still carrying last week’s loss which cost them a chance for a C-USA title game appearance. The Mean Green is still a 3-to-1 pick. SMW Take – Tulsa covers
CFB – (421) ARIZONA at (422) ARIZONA STATE 9:30 ET PAC-12N
Arizona State tumbling from -14 to -12 almost had to be expected, given the history of the Territorial Cup, which by the way is the oldest trophy in college football. Here is why the Sun Devils are sinking favorites. In the past 20 years, the road team is a quirky 16-4 against the spread, winning outright 65 percent of the time. Update – For books in Las Vegas, 12 seems to the right number, but offshore locales are even lower to 11.5 or 11. Almost two-thirds action on the visitor. SMW Take – Arizona covers
More Betting News – The Top 5 college football plays based on percentages are in order: Colorado State, UTSA, Tulane, Mid. Tenn. State and Kansas State…..The Top 5 OVER plays based on percentages are these home teams: North Carolina, Illinois, Florida, Colorado State and Utah….. The Top 5 UNDER plays based on percentages are these home teams: Syracuse, Georgia State, Tulsa, Western Kentucky and Connecticut.
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
Arkansas is 1-12 ATS after playing a game at home the last two seasons. (Friday)
CFB Totals Trend
Florida State is 8-0 OVER after allowing 14 points or less in last game this season.
CFB First Half Trend
UTEP is 0-8 ATS as an underdog vs. the first half line this season.
CFB Money Line Trend
Auburn is 19-1 after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games since 1992.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
