NASCAR Picks This Week: Southern 500 Best Bets & Predictions
Cook Out Southern 500 – Darlington Raceway – Sunday, September 6, 2026
Looking for the best NASCAR picks this week? Rocketman Sports breaks down the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway with race-winner odds, driver analysis, value bets, longshots and our strongest early NASCAR betting positions.
The Southern 500 is one of NASCAR’s biggest races, and this year’s event carries even more importance because it opens the 2026 NASCAR Chase.
Darlington is also one of the most demanding tracks on the Cup Series schedule.
Tire wear, track position, long-run speed, driver experience and avoiding the famous Darlington stripe can all determine who survives 500 miles at the Track Too Tough to Tame.
Our objective is not simply to select the driver most likely to win.
We want to identify drivers whose available betting odds may be better than their actual probability of winning or finishing near the front.
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Southern 500 Picks – Quick Picks
| NASCAR Bet | Rocketman Early Pick | Betting Angle |
|---|---|---|
| Race Winner | Tyler Reddick +500 or Better | Best Outright |
| Race Winner | Chase Briscoe +600 or Better | Best Southern 500 History |
| Top-3 Finish | Denny Hamlin +150 or Better | Best Conservative Position |
| Longshot Winner | Brad Keselowski +2200 or Better | Best Longshot |
NASCAR odds can move considerably after practice and qualifying. The prices listed above are part of each recommendation. If a driver’s price moves substantially below our target, the value can disappear.
Best NASCAR Bet #1: Tyler Reddick +500 or Better
Pick: Tyler Reddick to Win +500 or Better
Tyler Reddick is our favorite early outright bet for the 2026 Southern 500.
The biggest reason is simple:
Reddick has already proven he can dominate Darlington with the current 2026 package.
He won the Goodyear 400 at Darlington earlier this season after starting from the pole and overcoming multiple issues during the race.
Reddick eventually drove back through the field and won by more than five seconds.
That victory was not an isolated performance.
Over the most recent group of Darlington races, Reddick has produced one of the strongest combinations of average finish and driver rating in the field.
Darlington rewards drivers who can manage tire fall-off while remaining fast over a long green-flag run.
That style fits Reddick extremely well.
He is particularly strong when the racing surface loses grip and drivers must search for different lines around the track.
The betting question is whether we are paying too much.
At approximately +500, Reddick is one of the favorites.
We still believe that price is playable because his Darlington performance justifies being near the top of the odds board.
If Reddick drops dramatically below +400 after qualifying, we would become less interested.
Rocketman NASCAR Pick: Tyler Reddick +500 or Better to Win the Southern 500.
NASCAR Pick #2: Chase Briscoe +600 or Better
Pick: Chase Briscoe to Win +600 or Better
There may not be another driver in the field with a more obvious Southern 500-specific argument than Chase Briscoe.
Briscoe has won the last two Southern 500s.
He now attempts to make it three consecutive victories in one of NASCAR’s crown-jewel races.
Winning once at Darlington can involve strategy and timing.
Winning this particular race twice consecutively demonstrates that Briscoe understands what it takes to survive 500 miles at this track.
The No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing team also gives him equipment capable of winning outright.
Briscoe has not dominated every Darlington race. He finished 12th here during the spring event.
But his Southern 500 history gives us enough confidence to include him at the proper price.
The market currently has Briscoe behind Reddick and Hamlin.
We want approximately +600 or better.
If the betting public pushes him down near +450 because of his back-to-back victories, we would rather pass than pay for the narrative.
Rocketman NASCAR Pick: Chase Briscoe +600 or Better.
NASCAR Pick #3: Denny Hamlin Top 3 +150 or Better
Pick: Denny Hamlin Top-3 Finish +150 or Better
If you want a NASCAR wager that does not require picking the actual race winner, Denny Hamlin provides our favorite early position.
Hamlin has one of the greatest Darlington resumes in the active field.
He owns five victories at the track along with a huge collection of Top-5 and Top-10 finishes.
His career average finish at Darlington is also among the best of active drivers.
Hamlin enters the Chase as the regular-season champion and the top seed.
His outright price is roughly the same as Reddick’s.
We slightly prefer Reddick on the outright because of his recent Darlington performance.
But Hamlin’s long history of consistently running near the front makes the Top-3 market particularly appealing.
Instead of requiring Hamlin to defeat the entire field, the wager cashes if he finishes first, second or third.
At approximately +150 or better, that is our preferred way to back Hamlin.
Rocketman NASCAR Pick: Denny Hamlin Top 3 +150 or Better.
Best NASCAR Longshot: Brad Keselowski +2200 or Better
Pick: Brad Keselowski to Win +2200 or Better
Brad Keselowski is our favorite higher-priced driver on the board.
The price is the primary attraction.
Keselowski has already won twice at Darlington during his Cup Series career.
More importantly for Sunday’s race, he finished second behind Tyler Reddick at Darlington earlier this season.
That tells us the current RFK Racing package can compete at this track.
The market still offers Keselowski at roughly +2200 to +2500 depending on sportsbook.
He obviously has a lower probability of winning than Reddick, Hamlin or Briscoe.
But his odds are four to five times larger.
That creates the type of risk/reward profile we want from a NASCAR longshot.
This should be treated as a smaller wager than our primary selections.
Rocketman NASCAR Longshot: Brad Keselowski +2200 or Better.
Southern 500 Drivers to Watch
Kyle Larson
Kyle Larson always deserves attention at Darlington.
Few active drivers have led more laps at this track, and his ability to run inches from the wall makes him a natural fit for Darlington.
Larson is currently available at a longer price than the top three favorites.
If his number remains around +1000 or better after practice and qualifying, he becomes much more interesting.
Christopher Bell
Christopher Bell has repeatedly shown front-running speed at Darlington and enters the weekend as another legitimate Joe Gibbs Racing threat.
At roughly +1000 or +1100, Bell is worth monitoring.
Our preference is to wait for Saturday’s practice and qualifying before deciding whether he belongs on the betting card.
Chris Buescher
Chris Buescher is another driver who deserves attention deeper down the board.
His recent Darlington finishes have generally been strong, and his price is considerably larger than the favorites.
He could become particularly interesting in Top-5, Top-10 or driver-matchup markets once those numbers are finalized.
Erik Jones
Darlington has historically been one of Erik Jones’ strongest tracks.
Jones won the Southern 500 in 2022 and owns multiple strong finishes at the track.
At approximately +2500 to +3000, he qualifies as a true longshot.
We prefer Keselowski, but Jones remains worth monitoring.
Our Projected Southern 500 Top 5
- Tyler Reddick
- Chase Briscoe
- Denny Hamlin
- Kyle Larson
- Brad Keselowski
This is a projected finishing order, not five separate betting recommendations.
NASCAR contains enormous variance from pit strategy, cautions, mechanical failures and crashes.
Why Darlington Is Different
Darlington Raceway is a 1.366-mile oval with dramatically different corners at each end.
Teams cannot simply build a perfect setup for both turns.
Drivers must compromise.
The abrasive racing surface also creates severe tire wear.
A car that is extremely fast for five laps may become much slower after 25 or 30 laps.
That makes long-run speed and tire management extremely important.
Why Practice and Qualifying Matter This Week
We are publishing our early NASCAR positions before Saturday’s final practice and qualifying information is available.
That means these picks can still be adjusted.
Darlington has historically rewarded drivers who start near the front more than chaotic drafting tracks such as Daytona or Talladega.
Qualifying therefore matters.
If one of our selected drivers qualifies near the front and shows excellent long-run practice speed, his betting odds may shorten considerably.
That creates the tradeoff NASCAR bettors constantly face:
Bet early for the better price or wait for more information.
NASCAR Betting Against Public Perception
Public bettors naturally gravitate toward recognizable stars and recent winners.
That can create inflated prices.
Our goal is not to automatically fade popular drivers.
Our goal is to determine whether the sportsbook price properly reflects each driver’s probability of winning.
Chase Briscoe is a good example.
His consecutive Southern 500 victories will attract attention.
At +600 or better, we are comfortable backing that history.
At +400, the same driver becomes a much less attractive wager.
Best NASCAR Outright Bet This Week
Tyler Reddick +500 or better is our favorite outright wager.
He won at Darlington earlier in 2026 and owns elite recent performance at the track.
Reddick’s ability to manage worn tires while maintaining speed fits exactly what the Southern 500 requires.
Best NASCAR Value Bet This Week
Chase Briscoe +600 or better gives us our favorite combination of price and Southern 500 history.
Winning this event three consecutive times would be extraordinary.
But two straight victories already demonstrate that his success here is not random.
Best NASCAR Longshot This Week
Brad Keselowski +2200 or better is our favorite longshot.
He has two career Darlington victories and finished second here earlier this season.
That is a stronger track-specific resume than we normally find on a driver available at more than 20-1.
Best Conservative NASCAR Bet
Denny Hamlin Top 3 +150 or better is our preferred wager for bettors who do not want to rely entirely on an outright winner.
Hamlin’s exceptional Darlington history gives him multiple paths to finishing near the front even if someone else ultimately wins the race.
How We Handicap NASCAR Picks This Week
Rocketman Sports evaluates more than each driver’s position in the season standings.
Important NASCAR factors include:
- Track-specific history
- Current car speed
- Practice speed
- Long-run speed
- Qualifying position
- Tire wear
- Driver matchup history
- Pit-road performance
- Manufacturer strength
- Current form
- Betting price
Every factor needs to be viewed in context.
A driver with a great historical record at Darlington may not offer value if the sportsbook price becomes too short.
Best NASCAR Handicappers This Week
Rocketman Sports has also created a separate ranking of the Best NASCAR Handicappers for 2026.
Our current documented NASCAR profit leaders include Pure Lock, Mikey Sports, Rocketman Sports and John Ryan.
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Pure Lock NASCAR Picks
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NASCAR Picks This Week FAQ
What is the best NASCAR bet this week?
Tyler Reddick +500 or better is our favorite early outright wager for the Southern 500. He won the spring Darlington race and has produced excellent recent performance at this track.
Who is the best NASCAR longshot this week?
Brad Keselowski +2200 or better is our preferred longshot. Keselowski has two career Darlington wins and finished second at the track earlier this season.
Who has won the last two Southern 500 races?
Chase Briscoe has won the previous two Southern 500s and will attempt to win the race for a third consecutive year.
Who has the best Darlington history?
Denny Hamlin owns one of the strongest active-driver resumes at Darlington with five victories and numerous Top-5 and Top-10 finishes.
When is the Southern 500?
The 2026 Cook Out Southern 500 is scheduled for Sunday, September 6 at 5:00 PM ET at Darlington Raceway.
Should I wait until NASCAR qualifying before betting?
There are advantages to both approaches. Betting early can secure better odds, while waiting until after practice and qualifying provides additional information about car speed and starting position.
Who are the best NASCAR handicappers?
Our current documented NASCAR rankings are led by Pure Lock, followed by Mikey Sports, Rocketman Sports and John Ryan.
Final Southern 500 Picks
Our early NASCAR picks this week for the Cook Out Southern 500 are:
- Tyler Reddick +500 or better to win
- Chase Briscoe +600 or better to win
- Denny Hamlin Top 3 +150 or better
- Brad Keselowski +2200 or better to win – smaller longshot wager
Best Outright: Tyler Reddick +500 or better
Best Value: Chase Briscoe +600 or better
Best Conservative Bet: Denny Hamlin Top 3 +150 or better
Best Longshot: Brad Keselowski +2200 or better
The betting number remains part of every selection.
We will reassess the board after Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions.
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NASCAR odds referenced on this page were reviewed September 3, 2026 and are subject to change. Practice, qualifying, weather and other race-week developments can change the value of a wager. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please wager responsibly.