The Phillies and Braves play a winner-take-all Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series on Thursday, October 1, at Truist Park in Atlanta. First pitch is set for 2 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock. If it ends up as the only Wild Card game left on Thursday, MLB moves it to 8 p.m. ET.
The series is tied 1-1. Atlanta won Game 1, 5-3. Philadelphia answered with a 4-3 win in 10 innings on Wednesday, after Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper hit back-to-back home runs off Dylan Lee in the eighth to tie it. Alec Bohm then won it with a two-out solo homer in the 10th.
The Braves won the NL East at 94-68 and went 53-30 at home. The Phillies finished 88-74 and are 46-37 on the road, including the playoffs. The winner moves on to the NL Division Series, which starts October 3.
Phillies vs Braves Game 3 odds
The market sees this as close to a coin flip, and early prices disagree on the favorite.
| Source | Phillies | Braves | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening price (Kalshi) | -104 | -113 | Not posted |
| SportsLine consensus | -115 | Not listed | 7.5 |
Lines will move once both starters are confirmed, so check your book’s current number before betting.
Pitching matchup: Aaron Nola vs Grant Holmes
Neither team had confirmed its starter as of Wednesday night, but Aaron Nola and Grant Holmes are the expected names.
| Pitcher | Record | ERA | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 7-12 | 4.67 | 3.12 ERA over his final 15 starts; 4.50 ERA in 3 starts vs Atlanta |
| Grant Holmes (ATL) | 10-6 | 3.44 | May follow a lefty opener; held Philly to 7 runs in 20.2 innings this year |
Nola’s season came in two halves. He had a 6.04 ERA through June 29, then pitched much better after that. His last outing is the worry: on short rest Saturday against Tampa Bay, he gave up three runs in one inning of a 12-1 loss.
Atlanta may not start Holmes. The Braves could open with a lefty, likely Ray Kerr or Brent Suter, to face Schwarber and Harper in the first inning. Holmes would then pitch the bulk. The Phillies hit him for 19 hits and 4 homers this season but scored just 7 runs off him.
Both bullpens are stretched. Game 2 went 10 innings. Andrew Painter threw three scoreless innings for Philadelphia, so he’s likely limited Thursday. Closer Jhoan Duran sat out Game 2, and the Phillies hope he’s available. Zack Wheeler (14-5, 3.00) pitched Sunday and is not expected to start, but he could appear in relief. For Atlanta, Dylan Lee was hit hard in Game 2.
Lineup note: Edmundo Sosa left Game 2 with a right leg injury. If he sits, Harper likely moves back to first base and Derek Hill plays right field.
Key betting angles for Game 3
- Home field vs. a near pick’em price. Atlanta went 53-30 at Truist Park. When a team that strong at home is priced near even money, the home side deserves a long look.
- First five innings vs. full game. Both bullpens are tired after a 10-inning Game 2. If you trust the starters more than the relievers, the first-five-innings line isolates Nola and Holmes and takes the tired bullpens out of the bet.
- The total at 7.5. Holmes has kept the Phillies’ scoring down this year, and Nola has been better since July. But two worn bullpens and a lineup that just hit three late homers make late runs a real risk.
- The opener and the first inning. If Atlanta opens with a lefty, it’s a direct play against Schwarber and Harper at the top of the order. First-inning run props are worth watching if the Braves go that route.
- Don’t overrate momentum. Philadelphia’s comeback was dramatic, but Game 3 starts fresh. Price it on pitching and bullpen availability, not the walk-off feeling.
Top MLB experts for the Wild Card round
Two leaderboards are worth checking before Game 3. Here are the top MLB handicappers on each, as of September 30, 2026.
Rocketman Sports MLB leaderboard
| Rank | Expert | MLB record | Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marc Lyle | 330-240 (57.9%) | +$4,778 | +6.6% |
| 2 | Brooke Bennett | 215-176 (55.0%) | +$4,769 | +10.6% |
| 3 | Dana Lane | 393-393 (50.0%) | +$2,789 | +3.1% |
| 4 | Sean Higgs | 382-344 (52.6%) | +$2,632 | +3.1% |
| 5 | Matt Fargo | 170-216 (44.0%) | +$1,458 | +3.7% |
Dana Lane and Matt Fargo profit while winning half or less of their picks because they mostly bet underdogs at plus prices. See the full MLB leaderboard for all 23 ranked experts.
Hot MLB experts at Winning Cappers
| Expert | Recent form | Picks |
|---|---|---|
| Pure Lock | 62-39 (61%) over his last 101 picks; No. 1 on the 60-day leaderboard at +$17,650 | Winning Cappers |
| Rob Vinciletti | 17-6 on recent MLB sides; No. 1 on the 30-day leaderboard at +$17,065 | Winning Cappers |
| C-Stars Sports | +$7,816 over the last 30 days; 2-0 on Tuesday’s MLB card | Winning Cappers |
| Tim Buzan | 6-0 active streak (+$6,070); 40-34 (54%) this season | Winning Cappers |
| R&R Totals | MLB totals specialist; 1,293-1,112 since 2013, +$90,780 at $1,000 per game | Winning Cappers, Rocketman Sports |
Winning Cappers profit figures assume $1,000 per game and come from its leaderboards. They cover all sports, not only MLB.
Phillies vs Braves prediction
Our lean
Braves moneyline at a near pick’em price
Atlanta holds the edge in three areas that matter most in a one-game series: home field (53-30), a starter who has kept Philadelphia’s scoring down this season, and a bullpen in better shape after the Phillies needed three innings from Andrew Painter on Wednesday.
Nola’s 4.50 ERA against Atlanta this year and his rough short-rest outing Saturday add to the case. The risk is a Zack Wheeler relief appearance and a Phillies lineup that just homered three times late in Game 2.
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