At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (260) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (259). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-5) has lost two straight games with their 24-21 loss at Baltimore as a 6.5-point underdog. Cleveland (3-6-1) takes the field again after their 28-16 upset win over Atlanta two Sundays ago as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati is a desperate for a win right now — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after losing three of their last four games. The defense has been the problem for this team. The 403 yards they allowed to the Ravens last week was actually a big improvement from the 509 and 576 yards they allowed in their previous two contests. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 375 yards in their last three contests — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after giving up at least 400 yards in their last two games. Cincinnati will once again be without wide receiver A.J. Green for this game but they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games against teams with a losing record. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of November — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC North opponents. Cleveland is just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after their bye week. They go back on the road where they are on a twenty-five game losing streak. The Browns are 0-4 away from home this season with a -6.0 PPG losing margin due to allowing 31.2 PPG. Cleveland is being out-gained by -90.2 net YPG by their home hosts. The Browns are just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games played on field turf. Furthermore, Cleveland is just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games against fellow AFC North opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have dominated the Browns in the most recent Battle for Ohio showdowns. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight clashes — and they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to Cincinnati. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (260) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (259). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (109) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (110). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (4-6) has lost two straight games with their 22-19 loss to Dallas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (9-1) has won nine straight games with their 48-7 blowout victory over Philadelphia on Sunday as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta managed only 80 rushing attempts on 18 carries in that loss to Dallas last week — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. The Falcons have suffered two straight upset losses with that loss to the Cowboys preceding an upset loss on the road to Cleveland where they were 6-point favorites. But don’t count out Atlanta to keep this game closer than expected in this rivalry game played on a short week. The Falcons know this Saints team very well — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played for Thursday Night Football. Atlanta looks to avenge a 43-37 upset loss to New Orleans as a small 1.5-point favorite back on September 23rd — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss. The underdog in this series has now covered the point spread in 8 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams which makes the opportunity to take all these points very enticing. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as a double-digit favorite — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when laying 10.5 to 14 points. The Saints enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin against the Eagles last Sunday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 46 home games after enjoying a +2 or better turnover in their last game. New Orleans may be due for a bit of a letdown after scoring at least 45 points in three straight games while enjoying a minimum halftime lead of 15 points in those three contests. But the Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after enjoying a halftime lead of at least a touchdown in three straight games. Moving forward, New Orleans has failed to cover the points spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing on Thursday Night Football. The Saints have also failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 53 of the last 87 home games against fellow NFC South foes.

FINAL TAKE: This New Orleans team is not at full strength with their left tackle Terron Armstead questionable with a shoulder along with their right guard Larry Warford still questionable dealing with the concussion protocol. The team will also be without their star rookie defensive end Marcus  Davenport who is dealing with a toe. The Falcons are getting too many points in a heated divisional rivalry game to pass up. 10* NFL Atlanta-New Orleans NBC-TV Special with the Atlanta Falcons (109) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (107) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (108). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 23-21 loss to Houston on Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Dallas (5-5) pulled off their second-straight upset victory on Sunday with their 22-19 win in Atlanta over the Falcons as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: The bigger news for Washington was the gruesome leg injury to quarterback Alex Smith that ended his season in eerily similar ways to what to Joe Theismann for the team over two decades ago. The offense is now in the hands of the nine-year veteran Colt McCoy. I am a bit more bullish on what McCoy can do running this offense than the general public. The former Texas star has 25 professional starts under his belt with a firm understanding of the Jay Gruden offense having been with the Skins for 4 1/2 seasons. McCoy does not have a strong arm — but neither does Smith. I expect McCoy to capably run the offense while limiting his mistakes and letting the stout Skins’ defense keep them in the game. I certainly expect Washington to play hard in this crucial NFC East contest. As it is, the Skins have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a loss at home. Additionally, Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Furthermore, the Skins have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the month of November — and they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 trips to Dallas to face the Cowboys. Dallas returns home after pulling off two straight upset wins on the road against the Eagles and Falcons — but this remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a win on the road by a field goal or less. This is not a franchise that handles short-term prosperity very well. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record at home. Dallas held Atlanta to just 324 yards of offense due in large measure to limiting them to 10 fewer snaps on offense versus their season average. The Cowboys have allowed their last two opponents to average 6.23 and 7.02 Yards-Per-Play — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 6.5 YPP. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games played on a Thursday, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Four of Dallas’ five victories this season have been decided by one scoring possession. They may win this game — but this should be a close contest between divisional rivals with first-place and playoff positioning on the line. Taking the points will be valuable with a Washington team that should rally around each other after the injury to their starting quarterback. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Redskins (107) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (474) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (473). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (9-1) has won four straight games with their 26-14 win over Arizona last week as a 16.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (9-1) enters this game coming off a 36-31 win over Seattle last week as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: The Chiefs have covered the point spread in eight of their ten games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Kansas City has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in eight of their last ten games. I have concerns about the KC pass defense that ranks second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 289.0 passing YPG. Overall, the Chiefs’ defense ranks 30th in the league by allowing 410.7 total YPG. It is this leaky defense that has Kansas City only out-gain their opponents by +12.4 net YPG. The Chiefs are actually being out-gained on the road by -17.4 net YPG. Additionally, while Kansas City has averaged at least 6.47 Yards-Per-Play, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in three straight games. And in their last 5 games in the month of November, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these games. Los Angeles is out-gaining their opponents by +92.8 net YPG this season. The Rams are very tough when playing at home where they are 5-0 while outscoring their visitors by +12.0 PPG and out-gaining them by +133.8 net YPG. Quarterback Jared Goff has been outstanding when playing at home where he has a 14:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio while averaging a spectacular 10.2 Yards-Per-Passing-Attempt. It might be tempting to take the points with such a good team like the Chiefs — but history is not on the side of Andy Reid’s team. Road underdogs (or pick ‘ems) with winning records who have won at least eight of their last ten games have then failed to cover the point spread in 39 of the last 50 situations (78%) where those conditions applied. Furthermore, favorites who have won three of their last four games now facing a team that has won at least eight of their last ten games have then covered the point spread in 30 of the last 36 situations (83%) where these conditions applied.

FINAL TAKE: This Rams team is a bit more battle-tested with contests against the Saints and Minnesota on their resume. The best team the Chiefs have played is likely the Patriots who seem to have taken a step back this season. Kansas City also played the Steelers early in the season — but Pittsburgh was not playing nearly as well as they are right now. Look for Los Angeles to pull away from the Chiefs. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (474) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (457) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (458). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-3-1) takes the field again having won four of their last five games with their 24-9 win over Detroit two weeks ago as a 4.5-point favorite. Chicago (6-3) has won three straight games after their 34-22 win over those same Lions last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears have benefited from a soft schedule which has included the Jets, the Bills and the Lions over their last three games. So while Chicago has won three straight games over those cupcakes, they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after winning three of their last four contests. And while the Bears were a touchdown or better favorites in those last three games, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread as the favorite. Chicago averaged 7.73 Yards-Per-Play against the Lions last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after averaging at least 6.5 YPP in their last game. Furthermore, while the Bears have scored a combined 75 points in their last two games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 30 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Moving forward, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, in their last 7 expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests. Minnesota is the healthiest that they have been all season as they return from their bye week. They should play well building off the momentum of their blowout win over the Lions. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win over a divisional rival — and they are a decisive 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games after a point spread victory. Minnesota goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games. The Vikings have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point Total. And Minnesota has also covered the point spread in their last 4 games in the month of November.

FINAL TAKE: Look for this surging Vikings team to expose the Bears to be not as good as the point spread advertises. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (457) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (454) minus the point versus the Dallas Cowboys (453). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (4-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week in Cleveland where they lost by a 28-16 score despite being a 5.5-point favorite. Dallas (4-5) snapped their two-game losing streak last Sunday night with their 27-20 upset win at Philadelphia as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: We had the Cowboys last week as a sizable underdog in a desperate situation for them — but I was immediately concerned with the satisfied look on the face of head coach Jason Garrett and the rest of this team after that win. As if this team is still not facing dire straits moving forward. Dallas remains very inconsistent — they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They upset the Eagles despite being outgained in yardage by surrendering 421 yards of offense — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Injuries on defense remain a significant concern. The Cowboys will be without their best defensive player once again in linebacker Sean Lee. Dallas is allowing opposing quarterbacks to average a whopping +2.24 more Yards-Per-Attempt when Lee is not on the field. The Cowboys will also be without two starting defensive linemen in Taco Charlton and David Irving due to injuries. This satisfied Dallas team remains on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games. They are 1-4 on the road this season while being outgained by -43.2 net YPG due to their offense that is scoring only 16.2 PPG while averaging 312.0 total YPG when playing away from AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 39 games played in a dome. Atlanta got caught last week playing their second straight game on the road after a triumphant win in Washington the prior week (similar to the spot Dallas finds themselves). The Falcons got beat up by the Browns rushing attack which churned out 211 yards en route to 427 total yards of offense. I do expect head coach Dan Quinn to baton down the hatches with his team’s run defense — and the historical record supports this claim. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they are 38-14-1 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last contest. The Falcons had only allowed 140 rushing yards overall in their previous two contests. Quinn has done a fantastic stitching together a defense that has been ravaged with injuries. Over their last three games, Atlanta is allowing only 20.7 PPG. The Falcons need to recommit to running the football after managing only 71 rushing yards on 19 carries last week — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last contest. Returning home will help the Atlanta offense where they are scoring 32.2 PPG while averaging 436.6 total YPG. Quarterback Matt Ryan has an incredible 14:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio when playing at home. Expect a big effort from this Falcons team that still feels alive in the NFC wildcard race. While Atlanta has only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of November.

FINAL TAKE: This looks to be a de-facto elimination game in the NFC wildcard playoff race. Atlanta has home-field advantage. They have the better head coach in Dan Quinn over Jason Garrett. They have the better quarterback in Ryan versus Dak Prescott. And I expect them to more mentally prepared for this game. 20* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Atlanta Falcons (454) minus the point versus the Dallas Cowboys (453). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (465) plus the points versus the New York Giants (466). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-6) has lost three straight games — as well as six of their last seven contests — with their 16-3 loss to Washington as a 3.5-point favorite last week. New York (2-7) snapped their five-game losing streak on Monday night with their 27-23 win in San Francisco as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: We had the Giants on Monday but we will quickly jump off the bandwagon with this team playing on a short week. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread 13 of their last 16 games after a point spread win. They upset the 49ers despite being out-gained by -97 yards in that contest — and they lost the first down battle by a 24-17 margin. Now they return home where they are winless this season while being outscored by -12.0 PPG due to their anemic offense that scores only 14.7 PPG at home in the Meadowlands. The Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games at home —and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. This team is not reliable in expected close games either as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Tampa Bay dominated the Skins last week by generating 501 yards of offense. They not only outgained Washington by +215 net yards but also almost doubled their first downs by winning that battle by a 29 to 15 margin. A -4 net turnover margin ruined that game for the Bucs facing that Skins team facing massive injuries on their offensive line. Look for Tampa Bay to bounce-back as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 road games after losing six or seven of their last eight games. Behind Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Buccaneers are scoring plenty of points. Tampa Bay is averaging 29.8 PPG on the road with 445.8 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Too much offense from Tampa Bay who should do a better job of limiting their turnovers this week. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Tampa Bay Buccaneers (465) plus the points versus the New York Giants (466). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (462) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (461). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-5) has won three straight games after their 29-26 win over Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (5-4) looks to build off their 34-10 upset win over New England as 6.5-point underdogs last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Titans have pulled off two straight upset wins as their victory over the Patriots was preceded by their 28-14 upset win at Dallas a 4-point underdog back on Monday Night Football. Tennessee looks due for a visit to Letdown City. As it is, they have failed to cover the points spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they are a decisive 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 games after a straight-up win. The Titans did generate 385 yards of offense against the New England defense while averaging 6.31 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP. But now Tennessee goes back on the road where they are scoring only 17.6 PPG while averaging just 304.0 total YPG. The Titans are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams that do not have a winning percentage above .500 at home. Tennessee is also only 10-27-3 ATS in their last 40 games against teams with a losing record. This game has a high Total with the number creeping into the 50s — and this is not the type of game that the Titans do well in. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Indianapolis is one of the hottest teams in the league right now — and they have been propelled by their success in rushing the football. Over their last four games, they are averaging 162.5 rushing YPG while averaging 5.24 Yards-Per-Carry. Perhaps more importantly, they are averaging 30.5 rushing attempts per game over that span — and that commitment to running the ball pays dividends in ways that too many in the analytics community fail to grasp. Moving the chains helps the Colts defense by keeping them off the field and fresh. A credible ground game also helps quarterback Andrew Luck be more effective in the passing game. Luck has tossed at least three touchdown passes in six straight games — and he has his favorite weapon back in tight end Jack Doyle who had missed the first part of the season with an injury. Indianapolis enjoyed an outstanding draft this year with the tear top pick in guard Quentin Nelson out of Notre Dame really paying dividends. Luck has not been sacked in his last 189 pass attempts. Indianapolis has scored 71 points over their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Additionally, the Colts have averaged at least 6.27 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 51 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last two games — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last four games. Indy did allow 415 yards last week to a desperate Jaguars team — but they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Colts stay at home where they are scoring 30.7 PPG while averaging 400.0 total YPG — and they are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Indianapolis has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as the favorite. Lastly, the Colts are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games in the month of November.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis was swept by the Titans last season — so they surely had this date circled on their calendar as a critical point of their 2018-19 campaign. Of course, Andrew Luck was on the shelf last year. Their star quarterback has made a complete recovery from his array of injuries and finally has the support of a strong offensive line. Luck is playing the best football of his career — he should make the difference in this game. 25* AFC South Game of the Year with the Indianapolis Colts (462) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (308) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (307). THE SITUATION: Seattle (4-5) has lost two straight games after their 36-31 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams on Sunday as a 10-point underdog. Green Bay (4-4-1) enters this game coming off a 31-12 win over an injury-depleted Miami team as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle is better then their losing record suggests as all five of their losses were decided by one-scoring possession — and they are outscoring their opponents by +3.1 net PPG. They should rebound with a strong effort tonight as they are a decisive 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games are a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Now this team returns home where they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Seahawks game is predicated on running the football as they lead the NFL by averaging 152.2 rushing YPG — and this attack will be bolstered by the return of running back Chris Carson from injury. This team has the luxury of riding the hot-hand with Rashard Penny, Mike Davis and Carson all likely to get carries early in this game. Seattle should find success against this Packers defense that is 21st in the NFL by allowing 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. Over their last four games, Green Bay is allowing 4.97 YPC while allowing 120.5 rushing YPG. Even without Carson last week, the Seahawks rushed for 273 yards against the Rams — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Seattle is also 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on a Thursday night under head coach Pete Carroll. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Now they go on the road for the third time in their last four games where they are 0-4 while being outscored by -9.5 PPG. The defense has let the Packers down on the road by allowing 31 points three times and 29 points in their other game away from home. Green Bay’s defense is a depleted group right now with linebacker Nick Perry, cornerback Kevin King, and strong safety Kontrell Brice all declared out for this game. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against fellow NFC opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games in the month of November. And in their last 4 games played on the faster field turf, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread all 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: This is likely an elimination game from the playoff race for the losing team. Despite their five losses, the Seahawks seem to be heading in the right direction after their roster shakeup in the offseason — while the Packers seem to be hanging on by a thread with Aaron Rodgers just not having enough help around him on both sides of the football. Expect Seattle to wear down this Green Bay team. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (308) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (275) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (276). THE SITUATION: New York (1-7) has lost seven straight games after their 20-13 loss at home to Washington two Sundays ago as a 1-point underdog. San Francisco (2-7) enters this game coming off their 34-3 upset win against Oakland back on November 1st as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The 49ers got a surprising performance from Nick Mullens who completed 16 of 22 passes for 262 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in his first professional start in his career. I expect Mullens to get a visit from the ole Regression Gods tonight with the Giants having the benefit of eleven days of studying tape of that performance. As it is, San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. San Francisco stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record. The Niners are unreliable favorites considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when laying the points. New York is better than their record suggests. Five of their losses have been by 7 points or less — and they are only being out-gained this season by -13.2 net YPG while out-gaining their home hosts when playing on the road. This team should play well coming off of their bye week. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss to a divisional rival — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after losing five straight games. Furthermore, the Giants have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. New York has to get Saquon Barkley more involved in this game after only rushing for 37 and 61 yards in each of their last two games. The Giants were out-rushed by 147 yards to Washington in their last game but they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after being out-rushed by a least 100 yards in their last game. New York has also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in twos straight contests. Lastly, the Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: For different reasons, both of these teams have experienced disappointing seasons. The Niners are overvalued after their prime-time win over the hapless Raiders in their last game — this should be closer to a pick ‘em which makes the points with the underdog quite valuable. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (275) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (273) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (274). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-5) has lost two straight games after their 28-14 upset loss to Tennessee on Monday where they were laying -4.5-points. Philadelphia (4-4) returns to the field from their bye week after their 24-18 win in Jacksonville as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: This Dallas team has their backs against the wall after suffering two straight upset losses. They had previously been upset on the road in Washington as a small underdog by a 20-17 score before their upset loss to the Titans on Monday. We were against the Cowboys in both those games. But now with the seemingly all the Dallas backers jumping off the bandwagon in favor of the defending Super Bowl champions, this looks like the time to zig against that zag. The Cowboys have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after an upset loss by at least two touchdowns — and this includes them covering the point spread in nine of their last thirteen games when that upset loss by at least 14 points occurred when they were a home favorite. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 35 of their last 55 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Cowboys need to get Ezekiel Elliott going after they only rushed for 75 yards as a team against the Titans. Dallas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Cowboys go back on the road where they may be 0-4 this season but they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 5 games against NFC East rivals, Dallas has covered the point spread in 4 of these contests. Philadelphia has not won two straight games yet this season — and they failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win as they continue to suffer through the not uncommon Super Bowl hangover. Amari Cooper may have his breakout game with the Cowboys against this Eagles pass defense that is allowing 269.1 passing YPG which is 25th in the NFL. Additionally, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Unfortunately for us, I have seen a few teams seemingly quit on their head coach today. I don’t think that happens with this Dallas team that has a lot of years built up with their head coach Jason Garrett who is generally liked. I look for the Cowboys to respond the adversity they are facing to play hard which should be enough to keep this game within one scoring possession. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Dallas Cowboys (273) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (256) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (255). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-3) looks to build off their 37-34 win over Tampa Bay two weeks ago as a 3.5-point favorite. New Orleans (7-1) has won seven straight games after they defeated the Rams last Sunday by a 45-35 score as a small 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a letdown spot for the Saints after a three-game gauntlet at Baltimore and at Minnesota before last week’s showdown with the Los Angeles Rams. Now asking this team to cover the point spread by nearly a touchdown on the road against a possible playoff team is simply too much to ask. As it is, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning at least seven straight games. And while the Saints have covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. New Orleans has been getting off to fast starts as they scored 35 points in the first half last week against the Rams after racing out to a 17-13 lead the previous week against the Vikings — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after scoring at least 17 points in the first-half of two straight games. Defense remains the biggest concern for this team as they allowed 483 total yards to the Rams last week — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Saints are second-to-last in the league by allowing 311.4 passing YPG — and they are also 28th in the NFL by allowing their opponents to score touchdowns in 71.4% of their Red Zone opportunities. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. And while they almost blew their 27-9 halftime lead against the Buccaneers in their last game, they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. The Bengals needed to work on their play on the defensive side of the football during their bye week after allowing the Bucs to generate 576 yards against them in that furious second-half comeback. Cincinnati has allowed at least 451 yards in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 375 yards in three straight games. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. They stay at home where QB Andy Dalton has a 9-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio and where the team enjoys a +9 net turnover margin. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And Cincinnati enjoys the best Red Zone offense in the NFL statistically as they scoring touchdowns in 77% of their trips to the Red Zone.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals will be without wide receiver A.J. Green in this game but I expect the team to still be able to move the ball on offense with a strategy focusing on running back Joe Mixon. These are too many points to pass up for a team that plays tough at home (and away from the lights of a prime-time game). 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (256) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (255). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (265) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (266). THE SITUATION: Detroit (3-5) has lost two straight games after their 24-9 loss in Minnesota last week as a 4.5-point underdog. Chicago (5-3) has won two games in a row after their 41-9 blowout win in Buffalo as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit will be playing with desperation with that bad loss in Minnesota following up a 28-14 loss at home to Seattle. The entire organization is under scrutiny from quarterback Matthew Stafford failing to throw a touchdown pass last week for the first time all season to the offensive line giving up a whopping ten sacks to the Vikings to Matt Patricia seemingly over his head as a rookie head coach to the team appearing to have punted on the season after trading away wide receiver Golden Tate. Expect this adversity to have rallied this team together — they should come out swinging in this game. As it is, the Lions have bounced back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least 14 points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after losing two straight games by at least two touchdowns. Detroit has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games on the road after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The trade of Tate should create more opportunities for their promising young wide receiver Kenny Golladay so I am not too worried about their offense. While the Lions averaged just 3.48 Yards-Per-Play against the Vikings defense, they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 32 games after failing to average more than 4.0 YPP in their last game. Furthermore, Detroit has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Lions have been reliable in situations like this as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Detroit is also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games in the month of November — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against divisional rivals. Chicago is riding high with two straight wins by at least two touchdowns as they defeated the Jets by a 24-10 score before dispatching of a Nathan Peterman-led Bills team last week. Yet the Bears were actually outgained by a 264-190 yardage margin to Buffalo while managing a mere 11 first downs. Two defensive touchdowns and a +3 net turnover margin in that game masked a pretty mediocre performance by Mitchell Trubisky who passed for just 135 yards. My longer-term concern with this team is that head coach Matt Nagy is asking his young quarterback to do too much in lieu of establishing their ground game behind Jordan Howard. Expect a letdown in this game especially with the significant uptick in competition against a divisional opponent. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in two straight games when laying the points as the favorite. Additionally, not only have the Bears failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 28 points but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. Moving forward, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago may win this game with this one being played at Soldier Field — but asking them to cover a point spread around a touchdown against an angry and desperate division rival (who remains alive in the NFC North playoff race) is too much to ask. Expect a close game that the Lions have a chance to steal. 25* NFC North Underdog of the Year with the Detroit Lions (265) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (107) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (108). THE SITUATION: Carolina (6-2) has won three straight games with their 42-28 win over Tampa Bay on Sunday as a 6-point favorite. Pittsburgh (5-2-1) has won four in a row with their 23-16 upset win at Baltimore last Sunday as a +1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: After falling from a double-digit 4th quarter deficit to the Eagles to begin their current winning streak, Carolina has raced out to a 24-7 halftime lead against the Ravens before enjoying a 35-14 lead over the Buccaneers last week. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after owning a double-digit halftime lead in their last two games. Carolina has won the turnover battle in each of these last three games in part because they have not turned the ball over once during that span — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after winning the turnover battle in at least three straight games. The Panthers averaged 7.98 Yards-Per-Play against Tampa Bay — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Now this team goes on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Furthermore, Carolina has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog getting no more than 7 points. Pittsburgh earned a big emotional win over their arch-rivals last week — but playing Baltimore always takes a physical toll out of the Steelers which will be compounded by them playing on a short week. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. The Steelers are just 2-2 this season on their home field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home. Lastly, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Expect the Steelers to be a bit flat in this game — and Carolina is a very tough out. Expect a close game where taking the points will have value. 10* NFL Carolina-Pittsburgh Fox-TV Special with the Carolina Panthers (107) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (473) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (474). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-4) has lost three straight games with their 20-19 loss in London two Sundays ago against the Chargers as a +6.5-point underdog. Dallas (3-4) looks to rebound from their 20-19 loss in Washington two weeks ago as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee has been resilient when facing adversity. They have covered the point spread 13 of their last 17 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, the Titans have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after suffering two straight losses — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after losing three of their last four games. Tennessee did have a strong offensive performance against the tough Chargers defense as they generated 390 yards of offense which helped them control the time of possession for 35:25 minutes. The Titans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Tennessee has an outstanding defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 18.1 PPG. That number drops to just 16.5 PPG that they allow when playing on the road. And despite their 1-3 record on the road, they are outgaining their home hosts by +9.8 net YPG. The Titans held Malcolm Gordon and the Chargers rushing attack to just 47 yards in London — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The stout Tennessee defense keeps them competitive — three of their four losses were determined by one scoring possession. The Titans gave covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Tennessee has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against NFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight appearances on Monday Night Football. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a loss to an NFC East rival. The team has high expectations for Amari Cooper after trading for him from the Raiders during their bye week. But Cooper underperformed in Oakland with his effort being an issue. Plus, the Cowboys plan to use Cooper on the outside where he can function as a deep threat despite his having more success with the Raiders running out of the slot position. Dallas is just 20th in the NFL by averaging 20.0 PPG — and they rank 27th in the NFL by averaging just 320.0 total YPG. The Cowboys defense has been stout but they took a hit this week with defensive lineman David Irving being declared out for about a month with a high ankle sprain. Dallas has not enjoyed a significant home field advantage as of late as they have failed to cover the point spread in 55 of their last 98 home games when laying a touchdown or less. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: I do not think the addition of Cooper is the missing ingredient to make the Dallas offense function at a much higher level. Tennessee should keep this game close while having an opportunity to pull the upset. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Tennessee Titans (473) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (472) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (471). THE SITUATION: New England (6-2) has won five straight games with their 25-6 win at Buffalo on Monday as a -13.5-point favorite. Green Bay (3-3-1) has lost two of their last three games with their 29-27 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams last week as a +7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England should be in prime form for this game as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a Sunday on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. The Patriots have a number of injuries heading into this game but it does look like at least Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon will play despite being listed questionable by Bill Belichick’s very liberal use of the NFL’s “questionable” designation. They return home where they are a perfect 4-0 while outscoring their visitors by +13.8 PPG and outgaining them by +99.5 net YPG. Tom Brady is leading an offense that is scoring 36.5 PPG at home where he is completing 69.9% of his passes while averaging 308 passing YPG and accounting for 12 all-purpose touchdowns. And during their five-game winning streak, the Patriots are scoring 36.4 PPG and converting 50.8% of their 3rd downs which are both the best marks in the NFL during that span. New England has covered the points spread in 7 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games when favored by not more than a touchdown. Additionally, the Patriots held the Bills to just 46 rushing yards last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. And with this being an expected high scoring game, New England has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Green Bay looks to be at a crossroads after the Ty Montgomery controversy last week that culminated in him being shipped to Baltimore before the trade deadline. This veteran team may not respond well to the trade of Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix since he was playing at a very high level with the move suggesting that management does not believe the team has the potential to make a deep run in the playoffs this year. As it is, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Now this team goes on the road where they are winless in three contests while being outscored by -8.0 PPG due to their defense that is allowing 30.3 PPG. Green Bay allowed the Rams to generate 416 yards of offense (with Clinton-Dix) last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. This team is also allowing their opponents to average 4.68 Yards-Per-Carry which the Patriots will certainly take advantage. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. This will be Aaron Rodgers first game ever played in Foxboro as a professional — and that is an ominous circumstance for a quarterback that has led his team to win in just eight of his eighteen starts on the road against an AFC opponent. In those eighteen road games against the AFC, Rodgers has been sacked 50 times. Lastly, Green Bay has failed o cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots looked flat on the road on Monday against the Bills — but they should play much better back at home tonight with the challenge of hosting Rodgers. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (472) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (470) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (469). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (6-1) returns home after their 30-20 win in Minnesota last week as a -2.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (8-0) enters this game coming off their 29-27 win over Green Bay last week as a -7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: I don’t love this situation for New Orleans as this is their third straight expected close game with the point spread in +/- 3-point range after they upset the Ravens on Baltimore before dispatching of the Vikings last week. But this Saints team has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning their last two games on the road. New Orleans has also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up win while going 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a point spread win — so this is a team more likely to build off their momentum rather than suffer an emotional letdown. This is the Saints’ just fourth game at home as well where they are a perfect 3-0 this season. Drew Brees is averaging 348 passing YPG in those three home games with eight touchdown passes and zero interceptions. In fact, Brees has led his team to victory in nine of their last ten games at home while putting up 32.5 PPG in those games. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 29 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And despite surrendering 423 yards to the Vikings last week, the Saints’ defense is steadily improving. New Orleans has allowed only 20.0 PPG over their last four contests while allowing just 74 rushing YPG on just 3.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Even better, the Saints are allowing opposing running backs to average just 2.87 YPC so they have the opportunity to slow down Todd Gurley. New Orleans has also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Saints have covered the point spread in 10 straight games in Weeks Five through Nine. Los Angeles (8-0) is in a difficult situation as they are playing their fourth game in their last five contests on the road. Not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a win at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. The Rams generated 416 yards of offense last week against the Packers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Rams may be the last remaining undefeated team in the league but four of their last five games have been decided by 7 points or less. The LA defense has also allowed at least 27 points in four of their last six games.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams’ defense is allowing opponents to average 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry. The Saints will have success running the football. Look for a few jet sweeps for Alvin Kamara in the first-half which will force the Los Angeles star-studded defensive line to do a lot of running — which could tire them out for the later stages of this game. 10* NFL LA Rams-New Orleans Fox-TV Special with the New Orleans Saints (470) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (457) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (458). THE SITUATION: Carolina (5-2) has won two straight — as well as four of their last five games — with their 36-21 upset win over Baltimore last Sunday as a +2.5-point underdog. Tampa Bay (3-4) has lost four of their last five games with their 37-34 loss in Cincinnati last week as a +3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Panthers may be due for a letdown after pulling off their second straight upset victory as their win over the Ravens followed up an upset win in Philadelphia the week before. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Panthers have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning at least two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contests. Carolina has not committed a turnover in two straight games which has allowed them win the turnover battle in both these upset wins. But the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning the turnover battle in two straight games. Carolina is unscathed in their four home games this year — but they are only outgaining these opponents by +5.3 net YPG. The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow NFC South opponents. And in their last 9 games when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range, Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these contests. Tampa Bay should play hard for their veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick who appears to be the locker room favorite over turnover machine Jameis Winston. The Buccaneers’ defense has been a mess but their offensive led by coordinator Todd Monken has kept them in most games. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread win — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Bucs allowed 402 total yards to the Bengals last week, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay is comfortable getting into a high-scoring game as they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games following a game where at least 80 points were scored. The Buccaneers have scored at least 26 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. On the road, Tampa Bay is scoring 30.2 PPG while averaging 482.0 total YPG. The Bucs have covered the points prawn in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have cord the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Lastly, Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow NFC South opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing three of their last four games.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay’s prolific offense makes them a tough out against any opponent. While I do not expect them to pull the upset, they should keep this game close. 20* NFL Big Dog Surprise with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (457) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (454) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (453). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (2-5-1) finally moved on from the disastrous Hue Jackson regime this week after their 33-18 loss in Pittsburgh as an +8.5-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (7-1) has won two straight games with their 30-23 win over Denver last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: I expect an inspired effort from this Cleveland team that has probably grown sick and tired of the empty suit that is Jackson with his constant politicking rather than simply getting in the trenches to coach. After proclaiming that he was going to get more involved with the offense in the previous week, reports are that Jackson failed to follow through on that promise/threat. Now I think Gregg Williams is a raving lunatic — but I do expect the team to rally around him this week with this opportunity to stick it to the departed Jackson. The Browns have been sticky this year with three of their five losses being decided by a field goal. Cleveland’s defense has tons of talent — and they are allowing only 21.2 PPG at home. The Browns have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. And while they allowed 168 rushing yards last week, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. This team returns home after playing their last two games on the road. Kansas City goes on the road after playing their last two games at home — and they are surrendering 32.8 PPG away from home. Run defense is an issue for this team as they are allowing their opponents to average 5.34 Yards-Per-Carry. The offense has been a machine for the Chiefs behind QB Patrick Mahomes — but they only generated 340 yards of offense last week against the Broncos which might provide a blueprint regarding how to slow down that group. They managed only 49 rushing yards on just 18 carries last week which risks them becoming too-pass dependent moving forward. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to rush for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Chiefs did average 8.09 Yards-Per-Play against the Broncos — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 6.0 Yards-Per-Play in their last game. KC has scored at least 30 points in their last three games while averaging 445.7 total YPG in those contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three contests. Lastly, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of November.

FINAL TAKE: Denver ran the ball 30 times for 189 yards which helped them keep that game close despite it being played in Arrowhead Stadium. Expect plenty of Nick Chubb and (finally) some Duke Johnson as the Browns look to ground and pound to keep this game close. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (454) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (453). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (456) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (455). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (4-4) has lost three straight games with their 36-21 upset loss at Carolina last week as a -2.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (4-2-1) has won three straight games with their 33-18 win versus Cleveland last week as an -8.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore has suffered upsets in two straight games as that loss to the Panthers was preceded by an upset loss at home to the Saints. This has been a tough stretch for this Ravens team — and this is a must-win situation for them. John Harbaugh’s team has been reliable when responding to adversity as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore has played four of their last five games on the road so returning home will help. The Ravens are outscoring their visitors by +18.6 PPG while outgaining them by +92.8 net YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by no more than 3 points. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against fellow AFC North opponents — and they are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 games in the month of November. Pittsburgh remains inconsistent as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Steelers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games on the road after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Games on the road in the 1 PM ET time slot have been the Kryptonite for Big Ben Roethlisberger as he averages 275.7 passing YPG in his last six road games in the first slate of Sunday afternoon games which is more than 40 yards below the Steelers’ 318 passing YPG average this season. He has tossed only 8 TD passes in those last six road games at 1 PM ET while also throwing six interceptions. Roethlisberger also struggles in Baltimore where the Steelers have lost seven of their last ten games while accounting for 17 turnovers while being sacked 29 times which occurs once every fourteen passing attempts. Pittsburgh has also lost six of their last seven games in Baltimore. Overall, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against AFC North opponents — and they are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Ravens after losing by a 26-14 score at home back on September 30th. Lastly, this Pittsburgh team remains undisciplined in their play as they are last in the league in penalties and penalty yards — and this could make a big difference in an expected close game.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore remains a very good team despite two straight losses to two of the best teams of the NFC. Look for this team to step up with a crucial victory back at home against their arch rival. 25* NFL AFC North Game of the Year with the Baltimore Ravens (456) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (308) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Oakland Raiders (307). THE SITUATION: Oakland (1-6) has lost three straight games with their 42-28 loss at home to Indianapolis last week as a +3.5-point underdog. San Francisco (1-7) has lost six straight games with their 18-15 upset loss at Arizona last Sunday as a -2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The reeling Raiders have lost three straight games by at least two touchdowns — and that makes them an appealing contrarian option for some tonight. I am not sure the betting line is rewarding that contrarianism with any value with San Francisco only getting the standard home-field 3 points as the favorite — and it certainly is not now with the Raiders being bet to where they are now a small favorite in many locations. Oakland has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after suffering three straight losses by at least 10 points. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing three of their last four games. This offense is down two of their top weapons from the beginning of the season with wide receiver Amari Cooper traded to the Cowboys and running back Marshawn Lynch placed on Injured Reserve with a groin injury. Doug Martin will be the main running back for the Raiders despite his averaging below 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry in the last two seasons playing in Tampa Bay. Oakland goes back on the road where they are scoring only 13.0 PPG while averaging just 320.2 total YPG. The Raiders are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road. The Raiders are unlikely to bounce-back with a strong effort after being thoroughly defeated in their last game (especially on a short week to regroup). The Colts outgained them by 114 net yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after being outgained by at least 100 yards in their last contest. Oakland was outrushed by 119 yards in that loss last week — and they are 0-4-2 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The Raiders are last in the NFL by allowing 144.7 rushing YPG — and San Francisco should be able to take advantage of this deficiency considering that they are 6th in the NFL by averaging 133.6 rushing YPG. Both Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert are listed as questionable for the 49ers at running back but both are expected to play tonight. It is 50-50 if C.J. Beathard will take the field tonight given his injured right wrist. Yet even if third-stringer Nick Mullens has to be under center tonight, look for the 49ers to figure out a way to win this game — in head coach Kyle Shanahan we trust (when it comes to the offensive side of the ball, at least). San Francisco has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a loss to a divisional rival by 7 points or less. Additionally, the 49ers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after an upset loss as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after an upset loss as a road favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. Oakland has found many ways to lose in the 4th quarter so far this season — don’t be surprised if they find another way to lose this game. 10* NFL Oakland-San Francisco FOx-TV Special with the San Francisco 49ers (308) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Oakland Raiders (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (276) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (275). THE SITUATION: New England (5-2) has won four straight games with their 38-31 win over the Bears in Chicago last Sunday as a 1-point favorite. Buffalo (2-5) has lost two straight games with their 37-5 loss to Indianapolis as a 7-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: New England enjoyed a stacked schedule of three straight games at home where they scored a combined 117 points before traveling to Chicago last week. The Patriots are playing just their fourth game away from home tonight — and they are only 1-2 on the road with an average losing margin of -6.6 PPG. New England is being outgained by -152.0 net YPG when on the road which makes their position as a road favorite laying around two touchdowns pretty jarring. The Patriots are allowing home teams to score 29.3 PPG along with averaging 449.3 total YPG. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Patriots have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 road games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. Additionally, New England is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on Monday Night Football. Buffalo has rebounded to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after a loss on the road by at least three touchdowns. The Bills have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread defeat. Buffalo’s loss to the Colts came on the heels of their 20-13 loss at Houston where they went into halftime with a 10-0 deficit. The Bills have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two straight games. And while they fell behind by a 24-0 halftime score to Indianapolis last week, Buffalo has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after trailing by double-digits at halftime in two straight games. It will be Derek Anderson under center despite him laying on his couch earlier this month. The veteran completed 20 of 31 passes for 175 yards but threw three interceptions in that loss to the Colts. He should be better this week — and he will have LeSean McCoy at running back after he passed the concussion protocol yesterday. The Bills have not scored more than 13 points in four straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. A -3 net turnover margin helped to do Buffalo in last week to the Colts — but they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after enduring a -3 or worse net turnover margin.

FINAL TAKE: This is just too many points to pass up on a home underdog facing a divisional rival. No bettor feels great about defending the Derek Anderson Experience tonight. Making money sometimes means having to back ugly teams. Remember, we are betting on point spreads — not on good or bad teams. 10* NFL New England-Buffalo ESPN Special with the Buffalo Bills (276) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (273) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (274). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (5-1) won their fifth straight game last week with their 24-23 win in Baltimore last week as a +2.5-point underdog. Minnesota (4-2-1) has won three straight games with their 37-17 win in New York against the Jets last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans will have revenge on their minds after losing to the Vikings in the playoffs last January on this same field on a last-second touchdown pass that spoiled their chances of playing in the NFC Championship Game in that fateful 29-24 loss to Minnesota. The Saints have won five straight games and they should build off the momentum of their nice win against a tough opponent like the Ravens on the road. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and this includes their last four straight games after a victory. New Orleans is playing outstanding run defense as they are holding their opponents to just 2.87 Yards-Per-Carry while leading the league by allowing only 108 rushing YPG. The Saints have not allowed more than 77 rushing yards in four straight games after Baltimore managed that amount last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in their last game. New Orleans did allow 351 yards overall to the Ravens — but they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Sean Payton’s team usually thrives this time of year as they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 26 games in the month of October. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 road games against teams with a winning record at home. New Orleans certainly will not mind playing in the optimal conditions in the Vikings’ domed stadium — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with Minnesota. The Vikings only generated 316 yards of offense in their 20-point win over the Jets. This team is missing two critical pieces on offense with running back Dalvin Cook and left tackle Riley Rieff both out for this game. Minnesota’s blowout again truth Jets was facilitated by a +4 net turnover margin last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after benefiting from a +4 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Vikings defense is playing better after a slow start this season — they have not allowed more than 71 rushing yards in their last two games. But Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in two straight games. Lastly, the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota signed quarterback Kirk Cousins to win games like this despite them pulling out their miracle win over the Saints in the playoffs last year. But this Saints team remains more powerful on offense improving on defense —and they will be a highly motivated team to get a small measure of revenge from last year’s heartbreaking loss. 10* NFL New Orleans-Minnesota NBC-TV Special with the New Orleans Saints (273) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (269) minus the point(s) versus the Arizona Cardinals (270). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-6) has lost five straight games after their 39-10 loss to the LA Rams last Sunday as an 8-point underdog. Arizona (1-6) has lost two straight games with their 45-10 loss at home to Denver on Thursday Night Football last week as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINT(S): San Francisco will be playing with revenge on their minds from a 28-18 loss to the Cardinals three weeks ago. The Niners were 3-point favorites in that game and dominated the contest at the line of scrimmage by outgaining the Cardinals by +237 net yards but were stymied by a +5 net turnover margin to give that game away. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 34 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss. San Francisco should play better after being overwhelmed by the last remaining undefeated team in the league. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home to an NFC West rival. Despite winning only one game, this team is playing hard for second-year head coach Kyle Shanahan despite the disappointing season-ending injury to quarterback Jimmy Garappolo. San Francisco has lost three of their games by one scoring possession. Second-year QB C.J. Beathard has been solid under center this year save for last week’s game with the Rams. He is supported by a rushing attack that is second in the NFL that averages 127 rushing YPG that will be getting Matt Breida back from injury for this contest. The Niners have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. San Francisco needs to do a better job protecting the football as they suffered a -4 net turnover margin last week after enduring a -3 net turnover margin two weeks ago in Green Bay - and that was the game after their turnover-fest against this Cardinals team. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after suffering at least a -2 net turnover margin in three straight games. Now San Fran goes on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record at home. The Niners have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in Arizona against the Cardinals. Arizona has only forced seven turnovers in their other six games this season besides the game where they were gifted five times by these 49ers. The Cardinals’ offense is a complete mess as was painfully demonstrated in that Thursday night game where they managed only 223 yards of offense while surrendering two pick-six interceptions returned for touchdowns in just the first quarter of that game. That was too much for rookie head coach Steve Wilks who promptly fired offensive coordinator Mike McCoy. As if it is McCoy’s fault for a conservative game plan — this is the same offensive head coach who helped Peyton Manning in Denver along with Philip Rivers in San Diego thrive behind dynamic passing attacks. He was replaced by Bryon Leftwich who is considered a rising star in the coaching ranks. But Leftwich cannot fix a broken offensive line that was already one of the worst units in the league before left guard Mike Iupati suffered his shoulder injury that will keep him out for this game. Leftwich has no experience calling plays as well — save for some authority given to him during the preseason. The Cardinals are last in the NFL in rushing yards (64.6 YPG), total yards (220.9 YPG), 3rd down success rate (23.1%) and Big Plays (26). Leftwich can install flashier schemes for rookie quarterback Josh Rosen — but if the young QB still struggles to grasp the playbook, becoming more aggressive with this offensive line might be the quickest route for a season-ending injury for their franchise quarterback. Wilks is struggling in his first year as a head coach — and one of the benefits McCoy brought was years of coaching experience including a stint as the head coach with the Chargers. This is all bad news for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when being listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: While both these teams have only won one game, the 49ers have been much more competitive in their games. Look for them to avenge their earlier loss to the Cardinals. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (269) minus the point(s) versus the Arizona Cardinals (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (264) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (263). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-3) looks to bounce-back from their embarrassing 45-10 loss on Sunday night in Kansas City to the Chiefs by a 45-10 score. Tampa Bay (3-3) snapped their three-game losing streak last Sunday with their 26-23 win in overtime over Cleveland as a -3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati should rebound with a strong effort in the bland 1 PM ET time slot away from the national spotlight of a prime-time game that apparently still plagues this football team. The Bengals have lost two straight games with that loss to the Chiefs following up their heartbreaking loss at home to the Steelers — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing their last two games. Cincinnati needs to play better on the defensive side of the football after allowing Kansas City to generate 551 yards of offense the week after the Steelers gained 481 yards. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Patrick Mahomes ripped this Cincy defense for 353 passing yards last week — but the Bengals have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after allowing at least 350 passing yards. They also have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 27 games at home after allowing at least 300 passing yards. Cincinnati has covered 5 of their last 7 games at home overall. On offense, the Bengals managed to generate only 239 yards against the Chiefs’ defense — but they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after failing to gain more than 250 yards in their last game. Shipping in the Buccaneers defense might be just what the doctor ordered for Andy Dalton and company. Tampa Bay is last in the NFL by allowing 32.7 PPG — and this unit that is ravaged with injuries has been particularly soft against passing attacks. The Buccaneers are last in the NFL by allowing 327.5 passing YPG while also ranking last in the league by allowing 18 passing touchdowns. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging a 125.8 Passer Rating which is last in the NFL. Tampa Bay has suffered a season-ending injury to cornerback Vernon Hargreaves while placing middle linebacker Kwon Alexander on Injured Reserve. Sam linebacker Kendell Beckwith is out with an ankle injury while Gerald McCoy and Vinny Curry are dealing with injuries that have compelled the team to declare them out for this afternoon. Ouch. As it is, the Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread win. Tampa Bay is also 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the month of October. The Bucs offense is playing well with Jameis Winston again under center. After gaining 456 yards two weeks ago in Atlanta, Tampa Bay generated 456 yards of offense last week. But Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 400 yards in two straight games. But Winston’s return to starting quarterback has also seen plenty of turnovers. After a -2 net turnover margin against the Falcons, the Bucs had a -3 net turnover margin last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after suffering a -2 net turnover margin in their last contest. Now this team goes on the road where they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Back at home playing in this afternoon game, the Bengals should get back to their winning ways with a decisive victory. 20* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Cincinnati Bengals (264) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (103) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (104). THE SITUATION: Miami (4-3) has lost three of their last four games with their 32-21 loss to Detroit as a 3-point underdog on Monday. Houston (4-3) has won four straight games with their 20-7 upset win at Jacksonville last week as a +3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Texans are prime candidates for an emotional letdown after their big upset win on the road on Sunday. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after an upset win — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after an upset win over an AFC South rival. Furthermore, this inconsistent Texans team has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning their last two games under head coach Bill O’Brien. The Texans upset the Jaguars despite generating only 272 yards of offense with quarterback DeShaun Watson completing just 12 of 24 passes for 139 passing yards. The second-year pro is clearly not at 100% as he deals with a collapsed lung and broken rib. These injuries have limited his dual-threat capabilities as he has rushed for only 15 yards in his last two games. Houston returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games. The Texans have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against AFC opponents. And in their last 8 opportunities to play on a short-week on a Thursday, Houston has failed to cover the point spread 7 times. Miami has gotten surprisingly better play out of quarterback Brock Osweiler who seems to perform better in the role of relief pitcher rather than the heir apparent starter. Osweiler is completing 67.5% of his passes while averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Attempt while tossing six TD passes to just two interceptions while Ryan Tannehill completed 65.9% of his passes while averaging 7.5 YPA with eight TD passes but 5 interceptions in his five starts before suffering his shoulder injury. Osweiler did a better job of getting the ball out of his hand as he did not take a sack against the Bears defense two weeks ago (but he did take four sacks last week against the Lions with his team playing from behind). On defense, the Dolphins have allowed their last two opponents to average 8.02 and 7.53 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 6.5 YPP. Miami dumped a few of their high-profile players with high salaries in the offseason — but I liked these moves because they left this group under head coach Adam Gase feisty with a better team environment.

FINAL TAKE: We need to remember that we are not betting for or against teams: we are betting for or against point spreads. Asking the Texans to win by a touchdown or more is simply too much to ask of them. Somehow, look for this Dolphins team that has embraced the concept of being the whole being stronger than the individual parts to keep this game close. 10* NFL Miami-Houston Fox-TV Special with the Miami Dolphins (103) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (476). THE SITUATION: New York (1-5) takes the field again after an embarrassing 34-13 loss at home to Philadelphia as a +1.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago on national television. Atlanta (2-4) survived a 34-29 victory at home last Sunday against Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has lost three straight games amidst internal drama about the play of Eli Manning. But this team gets an important piece back on offense in tight end Evan Engram who has been out with a knee injury. His presence on the field should help Manning while opening things up for Odell Beckham Jr. and their rookie running back Saquon Barkley. The Giants passing game has not been bad with Manning under center — they rank 13th in the league by averaging 260.8 passing YPG. But New York is scoring only 19.5 PPG which is 27th in the NFL. Engram should really help their Red Zone offense. As it is, the Giants have rebound to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they are 13-6-2 ATS in the last 21 games after a double-digit loss at home. New York did generate 401 yards of offense against the reigning Super Bowl Champions while outgaining the Eagles by +22 yards. The Giants have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points. New York trailed after the first thirty minutes of this game by a 24-6 score after going into halftime the previous week against Carolina by a 20-13 score. A better start tonight is critical — and this team has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 17 points in the first half of their last two games. New York goes on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They also have covered the point spread in when playing with extra rest and preparation after playing a Thursday game. Perhaps facing the M*A*S*H unit which is this Falcons team is just what the doctor ordered. Injuries on defense have decimated that unit for Atlanta — they rank second-to-last in the league by allowing 32.0 PPG while ranking 30th in the NFL by giving up 417.2 total YPG. Additionally, the Falcons rank last in the NFL by giving up 24 touchdowns so far this season — and they are last in the NFL by allowing their opponents to convert on 56.2% of their third downs so Manning should have a good game tonight. As the injuries have mounted, Atlanta has allowed 35.0 PPG over their last four contests. The Falcons outlasted the Buccaneers last week despite allowing 510 yards of offense (389 passing yards) and getting outgained by -93 yards. They benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game. But that does not bode well for Atlanta tonight as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 30 home games after a win at home. Matt Ryan did lead Atlanta to outscore the Bucs in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after generating at least 400 yards in their last game. Additionally, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of October under head coach Dan Quinn.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are looking to salvage seasons that started with high expectations. Atlanta’s fall has been more devastation when considering they made the Super Bowl just two seasons ago but have now experienced seemingly insurmountable injuries. Add running back Devonta Freeman and their veteran kicker Matt Bryant who are also out for this game. The Giants are getting healthier — and they have played pretty well on the road where they are only being gained by -3.0 net YPG. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (463) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (464). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-2) looks to bounce-back from their 28-21 upset loss to Pittsburgh last week as a -1.5-point favorite. Kansas City (5-1) looks to rebound as well from their narrow 43-40 loss at New England last Sunday night as +3.5-point underdogs.

REASONS TO TAKE THEN BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati played good enough to finally defeat their AFC North rivals in the Steelers — but they gave Ben Roethlisberger too much time to engineer a game-winning drive after they tied the score up late in the 4th quarter. Marvin Lewis’ team should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread setback. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss as a home favorite to an AFC North rival. Cincinnati needs to play better on the defensive side of the football after allowing 369 passing yards to Pittsburgh. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. But this team is an underrated offensive machine under coordinator Bill Lazor as they rank 6th in the league by scoring 29.0 PPG. This scoring average rises to a 30.7 PPG mark when they are on the road — and they generating 417.3 total YPG away from home as well. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road. They also have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against AFC opponents. Kansas City saw their undefeated season end last week in front of a nationally televised audience — but this remains a team favored by the betting public with Patrick Mahomes almost pulling off the comeback win against the Patriots. The Chiefs have paid off bettors in all six of their games this season — but that is a dangerous bandwagon to jump on to now. As it is, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after riding a six-game point spread winning streak. The Chiefs offense is certainly dynamic as they have averaged at least 424 yards of offense with a 6.24 Yards-Per-Play average in each of their last three games. But the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after averaging at least 400 yards in three straight games. Kansas City has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in three straight games. But with all those passing attempts are also possibilities to turn the ball over — and Mahomes has thrown multiple interceptions in two straight games. The problem for this Chiefs team is their porous defense that is allowing 28.7 PPG which is the sixth-most in the league. Kansas City really misses their veteran leader Eric Berry in their secondary who does not appear close to returning to the field. They will also be without linebacker Justin Houston who is dealing with an injured hamstring.

FINAL TAKE: Despite losing to the Steelers last week, the Bengals are an underappreciated team in the AFC. Expect a close game with the points being very valuable. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (463) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (474) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (473). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-5) comes off a heartbreaking 33-30 loss at Green Bay on Monday as a 9-point underdog. Los Angeles (6-0) remained the lone unbeaten team in the NFL with their 23-20 win in Denver last Sunday as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread in as the favorite. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. This is a challenging situation for this Rams’ team as near double-digit favorite when considering that they are playing on the road for the third straight week. While Los Angeles is a power rushing team at their core that generated 270 rushing yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Despite their perfect record, the Rams are not playing great on the defensive side of the football. Over their last three games, they are allowing 27.3 PPG. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow NFC opponents. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against the Niners while also failing to cover the point spread in four of their last 5 trips to San Francisco. The 49ers may be disappointed with the late 4th quarter loss to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on Monday but their ability to remain competitive despite the season-ending injury to Jimmy Garoppolo will boost their confidence in this game. C.J. Beathard led an offense that generated 401 yards of offense in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. San Francisco almost stole that game despite a -3 net turnover margin after enduring a -5 net turnover margin the previous week in a loss to Arizona — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after having a -3 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. The 49ers need to play better on defense after allowing 521 yards to Green Bay while giving up at least 27 points in the fifth straight game. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 500 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 25 points in five straight games. Despite their record, the Niners have covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in two of the last three games. Lastly, the 49ers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow NFC West opponents.

FINAL TAKE: While it is understandable why bettors would want to take the better team in the Rams, it is difficult for even the best of teams to defeat a divisional rival on the road by double-digits. Expect this feisty 49ers team to keep things closer than expected. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (474) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (472) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (471). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-2) looks to build off their 23-17 upset win over Carolina last week as a 1-point underdog. Dallas (3-3) hopes to build off their 40-7 blowout win over Jacksonville last Sunday as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys are feeling pretty good about themselves after thoroughly dominating the Jaguars last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games after a victory at home by at least three touchdowns. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a win by at least four touchdowns. Dallas is a perfect 3-0 at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +14.0 PPG — but it has been a completely different story when they go on the road where they are 0-3 with an average losing margin of -7.4 PPG. The Cowboys are scoring just 12.3 PPG away from home and generating a mere 275.7 total YPG while being outgained by -74.3 net YPG. The decline in offensive production is coming from Dak Prescott and their passing attack that is producing only 156 passing YPG on the road. And while this Dallas team has an underrated defense, they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 30 road games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game. The Cowboys have also not covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Washington benefited from a +3 net turnover margin last week against the Panthers — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. This team is doing a great job in protecting the football as they are second in the NFL with the fewest giveaways. The Skins did a great job of playing keep-away as they had a Time of Possession of 35:24 minutes in that game. But Washington will look to play better on defense after surrendering 6.03 Yards-Per-Play along with 269 passing yards. The Skins have covered the points spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 6.5 YPP — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Washington stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games at home with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Jay Gruden and the Skins coaching staff has certainly spent plenty of time in the offseason preparing for the Cowboys after losing their last four games against their NFC East rivals. Washington has not defeated Dallas since January 3rd of 2016 but that was in the Kirk Cousins era. The Skins have new hope to dispatch of their divisional rivals with Alex Smith under center. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Redskins (472) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (454) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (453). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-2) looks to rebound from a 31-28 upset loss in overtime at Miami as a 7.5-point favorite. New England (4-2) comes off their triumphant 43-40 win over Kansas City last Sunday night as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: I thought Chicago would not enjoy playing in the Miami heat — and their defense allowed a whopping 541 yards of offense to a Brock Osweiler-led offense. Expect the stout Bears defense to play better this afternoon as they are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing at least 350 yards and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Furthermore, Chicago has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread defeat. Now this team returns home to Soldier Field where they are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games — and they are also 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 10 home games as an underdog, the Bears have covered the point spread in 9 of these games. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win at home where they scored at least 31 points. While the Patriots offense has cranked up over the last few weeks, their defense remains an issue after they allowed 446 yards to a Chiefs team that had no trouble moving the football in the second-half of their game last week. New England allows their home hosts to score 28.5 PPG along with 447.5 total YPG — and that was against Jacksonville and Detroit who are not exactly offensive juggernauts. Chicago head coach Matt Nagy should be able to pull out a nugget or two from what his former team did to this Patriots defense last week. New England sees their offense slow down when away from home as well — they are scoring just 15.0 PPG while averaging only 255.5 total YPG. Lastly, the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: It might look easy to take the Patriots since they are laying only a field goal — but that is likely to suggest a wisdom in the point spread. Expect this New England team to struggle on the road after playing three straight games at home. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Chicago Bears (454) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (453). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (468) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (467). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (3-3) looks to bounce-back from their ugly 40-7 upset loss at Dallas last week as a 3-point favorite. Houston (3-3) has won three straight games with their 20-13 win over Buffalo as a 10.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINTS: I have no illusions about this Jacksonville team that seems to be a shadow of the group that almost upset New England in last year’s AFC Championship Game. The Jags have lost six of their last eleven games and have taken a (predictable) step back on defense. And the Blake Bortles situation only seems to be worsening before it reaches its inevitable end. That all said — and after getting burned on this team last week — we want to be investing in situations like this. This is an embarrassed team that has lost two straight games by at least 16 points — but they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Jacksonville has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread setback. Now after playing their last two games on the road, this team returns home where they are outscoring their opponents by +9.0 PPG and outgaining them by +167.6 net YPG. Bortles tends to play better on his home field where he is leading an offense that is generating 405.3 total YPG. The team traded for running back Carlos Hyde this week but he is not expected to suit up with the short turnaround — but they still have a capable running back in T.J. Weldon. While their offense managed only 204 yards last week, they ave then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. The Jags’ defense should also play better at home where they are limiting their opponents to just 13.7 PPG along with only 232.7 total YPG. Jacksonville is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Jaguars have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on their home field. And in their last 10 games against fellow AFC South opponents, Jacksonville has covered the point spread 7 times. Houston may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Texans won that game despite Deshaun Watson passing for only 142 net yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to pass for more than 150 team yards. Watson is protected by one of the weakest offensive lines in the NFL — expect for him to be in trouble all afternoon against this stout and deep Jaguars defensive line. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Houston goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. And in their last 6 games against AFC South foes, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Even if Jacksonville is just a .500 team at this point, they should play one of their best games of the season at home against a divisional rival. 25* NFL AFC South Game of the Month with the Jacksonville Jaguars (468) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (467). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (451) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (452). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-3) looks to bounce-back from a 21-0 shutout loss at home to Baltimore last Sunday as 2.5-point underdogs. Los Angeles (4-2) has won three straight games after their 38-14 triumph on the road at Cleveland as a small 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee’s offense was simply dormant last week as they managed only 106 yards of offense against the stout Ravens defense. The Titans need to get back to running the football — Derrick Henry ran the ball only 7 times in that loss last week. The shutout loss should get the attention of the offense in practice and meetings this week. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to generate at least 275 yards of offense. The Titans have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and this includes then covering the point spread in six of their last eight contests after a setback. Tennessee also surrendered 361 yards of offense in that game to Baltimore — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 375 yards of offense. Defense is a strength of this team as the Titans ranked 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 17.8 PPG while also ranking 8th in the league by only giving up just 337.8 total YPG. These difficult trips to London test the character of teams — and I expect head coach Mike Vrabel’s team to respond with a strong effort. This team’s play on defense improves on the road as they limit their opponents to just 15.3 PPG and just 265.7 total YPG. Tennessee ranks 5th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 214.7 passing YPG — so they should be able to slow down Phillip Rivers and the Chargers’ passing attack. The Titans have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles has the difficult trip of traveling to London from the west coast — and they were already coming off a game on the road in Cleveland. A letdown looks possible for this Chargers team that is feeling pretty good about themselves right now. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Chargers are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while LA generated 449 yards of offense against the Browns defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Expect a spirited effort from this Titans team after their embarrassing performance last week. Their strong defense and a commitment to winning the game at the line of scrimmage should help them keep things close. 25* NFL London Calling Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (451) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (302) plus the point(s) versus the Denver Broncos (301). THE SITUATION: Arizona (1-5) looks to bounce-back from their 27-17 loss at Minnesota last Sunday as a 10-point underdog. Denver (2-4) has lost four straight games after their 23-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Arizona should play better in this game as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. After playing their last two games on the road, the Cardinals return home where rookie quarterback Josh Rosen will be making his first start in front of the home fans. Rosen helps this offense because he has a better arm than Bradford which allows him the Arizona offense to design route schemes where the former UCLA star can hit tight windows. His pocket awareness also will help with their depleted offensive line. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, Arizona is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record. Denver is reeling with second-year head coach Vance Joseph on the hot seat after their encouraging 2-0 start and Broncos’ fans already clamoring for Chad Kelly to replace the struggling Case Keenum who has already thrown 8 interceptions to just 7 touchdown passes. But the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread setback. Denver’s once strong defense has fallen apart as they rank 27th in the league by allowing 407.3 total YPG. It is the run defense that has let the Broncos down as they have allowed a whopping 225.7 rushing YPG over their last three contests with opposing rushers averaging 7.6 Yards-Per-Carry. This could be the breakout game for the Cardinals running back David Johnson who hopes to reimagine his form from 2015 where he generated 2118 yards from scrimmage before seeing his last two seasons derailed by injury. The Broncos are last in the NFL by allowing 161.3 rushing YPG. They gave 270 rushing yards last week to the Rams en route to surrendering 444 yards overall — and they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. To compound matters, the Broncos are dealing with a host of injuries including their spark-plug outside linebacker Shane Ray who has been declared out for this game with a knee. This team is also dealing with attrition on their offensive line with right tackle Jared Veldheer declared out tonight and left guard Ron Leary already on IR. Now Denver goes on the road on a short week where they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games. The Broncos have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: These Thursday games are a test of a team’s character and a litmus test regarding the health of a team’s culture. These are two teams moving in opposite directions. Denver is in free-fall with injuries robbing Joseph of the opportunity to save his job. Arizona went through this last year but still managed to eke out an 8-8 season. Despite winning only one game so far this season, there is a sense of optimism with the Cardinals having gone younger after having the oldest roster in the league last year. Rosen and first-year head coach Steve Wilks offer this team hope which can be validated by the team earning their first win at home this season. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Arizona Cardinals (302) plus the point(s) versus the Denver Broncos (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (277) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (278). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-4) has lost three in a row with their 28-18 upset loss to Arizona last week as a 3-point favorite. Green Bay (2-2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 31-23 loss in Detroit as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: San Francisco should play much better tonight than they did last week. They have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival — and this includes them covering the point spread in six of their last nine games when that upset loss to an NFC West rival was when they were a home favorite. Head coach Mike Shanahan did get a solid game from quarterback C.J. Beathard running his offense. The second-year QB completed 34 of 54 passes for 349 yards in that game — and the Niners have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. The 49ers go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Green Bay generated 521 yards of offense in their last loss to the Lions — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after generating at least 500 yards in their last game. Even in defeat, the Packers outgained the Lions by a whopping +257 yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +100 yards. And Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Don’t be fooled by Green Bay’s good defensive numbers — they rank 4th in the NFL in total defense by allowing only 313.8 total YPG. But those numbers are skewed with their shutout victory at home over the hapless Buffalo offense two weeks ago. Take out that Bills game, the Packers are allowing 28.5 PPG along with 356.0 YPG. Lastly, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against fellow NFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay is being asked to lay too many points in this one. Expect the 49ers even with Beathard under center to keep this game closer than expected. 10* NFL San Francisco-Green Bay ESPN Special with the San Francisco 49ers (277) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (276) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (275). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (5-0) remained undefeated last week with their 30-14 win over Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite. New England (3-2) has won two games in a row with their 38-24 win over Indianapolis last Thursday as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Chiefs have covered the point spread in all five of their games this season with the last three occurring when they were laying the points as the favorite. Foxboro is where these point spread streaks go to die. As it is, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering point spread expectations in five straight games. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three straight games as the favorite. KC has scored at least 27 points in all five of their games this year — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 25 points in four straight games while also failing to cover the point spread in 3 of the last 4 games after scoring at least 25 points in five straight contests. And while they generated 424 yards in that win over Jacksonville last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. New England has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They generated 438 yards of offense in their win over the Colts — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Patriots did surrender 439 yards in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after allowing at least 350 yards as well. New England is also 36-14-2 ATS in their last 52 games in the month of October.

FINAL TAKE: Bill Belichick coached-teams are a perfect 23-0 at home when facing quarterbacks below the age of 25 — and while that does not take into account the point spread, his coaching staff has the benefit of a few extra days to prepare for Patrick Mahomes after their Thursday game last week. This will be a fired-up Patriots team that will remember the 42-27 beatdown they suffered at the hands of the Chiefs in Game One of last year. 10* NFL Kansas City-New England NBC-TV Special with the New England Patriots (276) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (271) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (272). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (3-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 30-14 loss in Kansas City last week as a 3-point underdog. Dallas (2-3) has also lost two of their last three games with their 19-16 loss in overtime in Houston last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Quarterback Blake Bortles did pass for 430 yards in that game while leading an offense that generated 502 yards of offense. But he also threw four interceptions which buried his team. He tends to play better after embarrassing efforts — and Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Jags surrendered 298 passing yards to the Chiefs in that game — but they are a decisive 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after not allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. They should slam the door on this one-dimensional Cowboys’ offense that lacks credible targets in the passing game. Jacksonville will be able to play eight players in the box to slow down Ezekiel Elliott since Dallas cannot burn them down the field in the passing game given their outstanding cover corners led by Jalen Ramsey. Dallas (2-3) is a mess given the turmoil surrounding this team with the Dez Bryant fallout and now the questioning of head coach Jason Garrett after he decided to punt on 4th down in overtime against the Texans which contributed to that outright loss. Bad vibes in Big-D. They have not covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three contests. Frankly, they were fortunate to even see overtime against the Texans considering that they were outgained by a 462 to 292 margin in yards. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. This Cowboys team also does not retain much of a home-field advantage in Jerry World either — in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Bortles should do a better job protecting the football in this game where the offense does not have to play aggressively — this is his kind of game with the outstanding Jaguars’ defense leading the way. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Jacksonville Jaguars (271) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (270) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (269). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-0) remained undefeated this season with their 33-31 win in Seattle last week as a 7.5-point favorite. Denver (2-3) looks to bounce-back from their 34-16 loss in New York against the Jets as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Rams may get caught reading the press clippers regarding their supposed inevitable Super Bowl appearance this season. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road off a game they won but failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. Los Angeles is certainly clicking on offense after generating 468 yards of offense last week against the Seahawks. The Rams have scored at least 33 points in all five of their games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 30 points in five straight games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is struggling with his defense despite all the high profile acquisitions in the offseason. The secondary is missing Aqib Talib who is on Injured Reserve which has left cornerback Marcus Peters too often exposed against number one wide receivers. Opposing QBs have throw 8 touchdown passes with zero interceptions over their last three games. The lack of a pass rush is not helping — your Super Bowl locks are actually last in the NFL with just ten sacks this season while ranking eighth from the bottom with just 24 hits on the quarterback. Yet it is the run defense that may be the biggest concern for this unit as they are allowing opposing rushers to average 4.86 Yards-Per-Carry. Denver will run the football to burn time off the clock to keep the Rams’ potent offense off the field. The Broncos are averaging 5.6 YPC which has resulted in 137 rushing YPG — so they should have success running the football. This formula almost worked against Kansas City two weeks ago as they held the lead until Patrick Mahomes engineered that late drive that allowed them to escape Mile High with a 27-23 win. Denver needs to play better on defense after allowing the Jets to generate 323 rushing yards en route to their overall 512 yards of offense. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 150 yards in their last game. And in their last 16 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game, Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of these contests. The Broncos do play better at home where they are 2-1 while outgaining their opponents by +38.3 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams are laying too many points — expect Denver to keep this a close game. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Special with the Denver Broncos (270) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (258) plus (or minus) the points versus the Carolina Panthers (257). THE SITUATION: Carolina (3-1) has won two straight games with their 33-31 win over the Giants last Sunday as a 7-point favorite after Graham Gano nailed a 63-yard field goal as time expired in the fourth quarter. Washington (2-2) picks themselves off the mat on a short work week for them after they were humiliated on national television by a 43-19 score in New Orleans as a +5.5-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE WASHINGTON PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: The Skins should bounce-back with a strong effort as they are a better team than what they showed on Monday. Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread setback. The Skins have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Returning home will help where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. This team needs to get back to running the football as they attempted only 18 rushes for a measly 39 yards against the Saints. Chris Thompson ran the ball only 8 times for 17 yards. Washington has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. Expect the Skins to play better on the defensive of the football as well after being torched by Drew Brees for 349 passing yards. The Skins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 300 passing yards. And while New Orleans averaged 7.45 Yards-Per-Play, Washington has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 7.0 YPP. Carolina has won their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win while also failing to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning two straight games. The Panthers have scored 64 points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Carolina did surrender 432 yards to the Giants(!) offense last week — and they are just 6-14-2 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. This is not a reliable road favorite as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when laying no more than 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams are closer in quality than the point spread suggests. Don’t be shocked if Washington pulls the upset but take the points for some insurance. 20* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Washington Redskins (258) plus (or minus) the points versus the Carolina Panthers (257). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (262) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (261). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (2-2-1) is feeling pretty good about themselves after their 41-17 dismantlement of the M*A*S*H unit that is the Atlanta Falcons last Sunday as a 3.5-point favorite. Cincinnati (4-1) has won two straight games with their 27-17 win over Miami as a 6.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, Pittsburgh is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Steelers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 5 games against AFC North opponents, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in all 5 games. Cincinnati tends to play better with the confidence compiled from positive momentum. They have covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and not only have they covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread win but they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after paying off bettors in two of their last three games. Additionally, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. And in their last 8 games against fellow AFC opponents, Cincinnati has covered the point spread all 8 times — and this includes four straight games against fellow AFC North foes.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have won the last six meetings between these two teams — so this is a huge game for the Bengals. Pittsburgh is making tons of mistakes this year but relying on Big Ben Roethlisberger to save them time and time again. Look for them to make one mistake too many against this Cincinnati team that is playing confident football with six big chips on their shoulder having not defeated the Steelers since the idyllic days of our innocence back on November 1st, 2015. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (262) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (261). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (256) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (255). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-1) has won three straight games after they dismantled Tampa Bay two weeks ago by a 48-10 score as a 3-point favorite. Miami (3-2) has lost two straight games with their 27-17 loss at Cincinnati as a 6.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears are the toast of the NFL right now with their intimidating defense led by Khalil Mack and their new wave offense under rookie head coach Matt Nagy. But before we anoint this team as the reincarnation of the 1985 Bears, let’s remember that this team has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home at Soldier Field. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a bye week. Nagy’s game planning was clicking on all cylinders against the Buccaneers defense as they raced out to an incomparable 38-3 lead at halftime of that game while generating a total of 483 yards of offense. But the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. They were some cracks in the armor of this Chicago defense as they surrendered 251 passing yards in that game — and they are then a decisive 18-39-1 ATS in their last 58 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And in their last 18 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of these contests. Miami will be looking to play better in this game after following up getting trounced in New England they blew a 14-0 halftime lead against the Bengals in Cincinnati last week. They were done in the second-half by a 22-yard interception return for a touchdown as well as a 19-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. The Dolphins have rebounded to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after suffering two straight double-digit losses. Miami has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not allowing more than a field in the first half of their last game. This is a scrappy group that head coach Adam Gase has kept together this season after they let go of some of their underperforming big personalities in this offseason. This team returns home where they are tough to play against. The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog getting less than 7 points. UPDATE: the reports coming in late Saturday night is that QB Ryan Tannehill has an ankle sprain and is listed as questionable for this game. The point spread is moving is adjusting with the Dolphins getting more than 4 points in most locations. Brock Osweiler will go under center for Miami if Tannehill cannot go. While that is a downgrade, that is a QB with plenty of experience. The recipe for success with Miami remains winning this game on both sides of the line of scrimmage.

FINAL TAKE: I hate this situation for the Bears. I don’t like it when teams on hot streaks go into their bye week as it tends to cool off their momentum. And speaking of cooling off, this Chicago team will likely be dreaming of their hotel air conditioners or at least the crisp fall air in the Windy City about ten minutes into this game at South Beach where it remains hot as blazes. Former Miami Dolphin Brian Cox claimed that this Bears team is going to “melt” before this game is over — we have certainly seen the Patriots perform poorly in the Miami heat once it turns into fall in the north. The Dolphins should play very well in this game. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Miami Dolphins (256) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (255). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (103) minus the point(s) versus the New York Giants (104). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (2-3) has lost two straight games after their 23-21 loss at home to Minnesota last week as a 3.5-point favorite. New York (1-4) has also lost two in a row after their hearts were broken by Graham Gano’s 63-yard field goal which allowed the Panthers to steal a 33-31 victory in Carolina as a 7-point home favorite over the Giants.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The reigning Super Bowl Champions will be playing with a sense of desperation in this game playing on a short week after losing their last two games. As this team showed last year, they play their best football with their backs against the wall. And this is a gut check moment for this team with the injuries on offense with running backs Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles out along with their All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson now added to the injury list this morning with an ankle injury. But the strength of this Eagles team remains their depth along with their outstanding play on lines of scrimmage — and I find this component to be critical to level their record at 3-3 against this struggling Giants team. This team is still playing quality football — they have only lost these last two games by 5 combined points. Even with these injuries on offense, the Eagles generated 364 yards of offense against an angry Vikings’ defense that was embarrassed in their previous game against the Rams — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. The Philly defense gave up 298 passing yards to Minnesota — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Eagles are still playing stout on the defensive side of the football as they are allowing only 20.8 PPG which is 7th in the NFL. This defense ranks second in the league by only allowing 66.4 rushing YPG — and opposing rushers are averaging 2.78 YPC. This should help them play well on this short week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on Thursday Night Football. Philadelphia has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of October — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against fellow NFC opponents. Furthermore, the Eagles are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 trips to the Meadowlands to face the Giants. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The state of the Giants defense is a concern as they are allowing 124.4 rushing YPG which ranks 27th in the NFL. Those 31 points they scored against the Panthers were the first time that the Giants reached the 30-point threshold in their last 37 games. But this remains an unbalanced offense even with rookie Saquon Barkley as they are scoring only 20.8 PPG which is 23rd in the NFL while averaging just 75.6 rushing YPG which ranks 28th in the league. With tight end Evan Engram not yet recovered from his knee injury, quarterback Eli Manning has only three viable targets in the passing game in Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard along with Barkley out of the backfield. This lack of diversity should help defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz to dial up a good defensive game plan. Back at home in the Meadowlands, the Giants are scoring only 16.5 PPG while averaging just 311.5 total YPG. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 home games as an underdog getting up to 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: In this gut check game played on a short week for both teams, coaching and team chemistry will play important roles in making small differences in this game. The defending Super Bowl Champions have a significant advantage in both those intangibles than this Giants’ team that has seen their internal squabbles about Manning’s declining skills go public. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Eagles (103) minus the point(s) versus the New York Giants (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (478) minus the points versus the Washington Redskins (477). THE SITUATION: Washington (2-1) returns to the field after their bye week after upsetting Green Bay two weeks ago by a 31-17 score as a 2.5-point underdog. New Orleans (3-1) enters this game coming off their 33-18 win at New York against the Giants as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Skins are likely to suffer a letdown in this game as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory. Washington has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset win by at least two touchdowns as a home underdog. The extra week to rest and prepare is not likely to help the Skins considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a bye week. This Washington team has a good defense — but stopping the run is an issue that opponents with balanced offenses can exploit. The Skins were last in the NFL last season by allowing 134.1 rushing YPG. This season, the rush defense looks better on paper because they are only allowing 91 rushing YPG. However, opponents are only averaging 20 rushing attempts per game. The 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry average Washington is allowing this season is exactly the same mark they allowed last year. The Saints are seeing the return of running back Mark Ingram at just the right time after he served a four-game suspension. Additionally, the Skins have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games when playing on Monday Night Football. New Orleans should build off the moment of their three-game winning straight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win on the road. The Saints have paid off bettors in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. New Orleans returns home after playing their last two games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after playing their last two games on the road. The Saints have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 28 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. This is a good time to back New Orleans as well as they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games in the month of October.

FINAL TAKE: Expect the Saints to simply have too much on offense against this solid but unspectacular Washington team. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the New Orleans Saints (478) minus the points versus the Washington Redskins (477). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (475) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (476). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-2) looks to build off their 26-24 win over Detroit yesterday as a 2.5-point favorite. Houston (1-3) earned their first victory of the season last Sunday with their 37-34 win in overtime at Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys got their ground game cranked up against the Lions. Running back Ezekiel Elliott ran the ball 25 times for 152 yards to the lead for the Dallas offense- The Cowboys have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game (although don’t be surprised if Elliott a nice game catching the ball out of the backfield). Dallas tends to raise their level of play in the month of October under head coach Jason Garrett — they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in October. Now the Cowboys go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Dallas defense is underrated — they are allowing only 20.0 PPG along with just 294.0 total YPG on the road so far this season. They are third in the NFL in sacks led by linebacker DeMarcus Lawrence who leads the league with his 5.5 sacks. He should feast on this terrible Texans offensive line that has allowed 45 hits to the quarterback which is the most in the NFL. Deshaun Watson has been sacked 17 times this year which is the second most in the NFL. He did pass for 375 yards while leading his offense to 466 total yards against the suspect Colts’ defense — but Houston has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. The Texans got a jolt of confidence by earning their first win of the season — but they have then failed to cover in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up victory. Houston has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: While the Texans entered the season as a trendy dark horse Super Bowl team, bettors have not seen to have caught up to the fact that their weaknesses on their offensive line and defense most likely will limit what this team can do this season. Dallas is a solid football team with a good opportunity to win this game outright. 10* NFL Dallas-Huston NBC-TV Special with the Dallas Cowboys (475) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (469) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (470). THE SITUATION: Arizona has lost two straight games after their 20-17 loss to Seattle last Sunday as a +3.5-point underdog. San Francisco (1-3) looks to rebound from a 29-27 loss in Los Angeles to the Chargers as +10.5-point underdogs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Arizona has bounced-back to cover the points spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home. Arizona remains the last remaining winless team in the NFL — but they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after losing their last two contests. They will certainly be playing with a level of desperation. And this team can find confidence in the encouraging play of quarterback Josh Rosen. The rookie completed 15 of 27 passes for 180 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions last week — and his ability to hit tight windows with his strong arm gives this offense a new dynamic that simply was not there with Sam Bradford. The improving hamstring of wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald helps matters as well. The Cardinals need to do a better job of protecting the football as they have lost the turnover battle in their last two games. Arizona has covered the point spread in 47 of their last 76 games after suffering a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. San Francisco got a good game out of their second-year quarterback C.J. Beathard who passed for 298 yards while leading an offense that generated 364 yards of offense. But the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Arizona will benefit from getting recent tape on Beathard from last week. San Fran has issues on defense — after giving up 35 first-half points to Kansas City two weeks ago, they surrendered another 17 points in the first 24 minutes against the Chargers. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after giving up at least 17 first-half points in two straight games. San Francisco returns home after playing their last two games on the road. But the Niners have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after playing their last two games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona is playing solid football — they have lost their last two games by just five combined points. This should be another close game that the Cardinals can win with Rosen under center. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Arizona Cardinals (469) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (468) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (467). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-2) looks to build off their 29-27 win over the 49ers last week as a 10.5-point favorite. Oakland (1-3) earned their first victory of the season last week with their 45-42 overtime win at home against Cleveland.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders have been a hot mess under head coach Jon Gruden — they have been consistently disorganized while players and coaches are making too many mental mistakes. They were given a few gifts from the referees to survive that game with the Browns. But Oakland has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win. The Raiders are generating plenty of offense — QB Derek Carr passed for 437 yards last week to lean an offense that gained 565 total yards. Carr passes for 325 yards in his previous game — but the Raiders have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 300 passing yards in two straight games. That offense has suffered a big blow with the need to place their veteran left tackle Donald Penn on Injured Reserve. Carr has not been nearly as effective when playing on the road where he has lost eight of his last nine games while committing 13 turnovers. While the Raiders may have a large contingent of fans at this game with it being played on Los Angeles where there is not a ton of love for the Chargers, this is still an unfamiliar playing environment for Carr. The Oakland offense will not have much room for error considering how terrible their defense is — they are allowing 30.7 PPG and the 123 points they have allowed is worst in the NFL. Their defense without Khalil Mack is last in both sacks and hits on the quarterback. Philip Rivers will have a clean pocket with all the time he needs to pick apart this Raiders’ secondary. Rivers enjoys a 15:2 touchdown to interception ratio over his last six starts going back to last season. The Chargers should play well in this game as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while LA allowed 288 passing yards to the 49ers, they are then 3-1-1 ATS after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Chargers are playing high-scoring games with all four of their contests seeing at least combined 51 points scored. But Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after seeing at least 50 combined points scored in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games after a game where both teams scored at least 24 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders just surrendered 42 points to Baker Mayfield who was making his first professional start. Mayfield may have tons of potential — but Philip Rivers is a bad mad with plenty of healthy weapons right now. While the Chargers do not enjoy much of a favorable home crowd, these critics fail to appreciate that familiarity plays a large role in creating home field advantage. 25* NFL AFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (468) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (467). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (460) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Denver Broncos (459). New York (1-3) looks to snap a three-game losing streak with their 31-12 loss in Jacksonville yesterday. Denver (2-2) looks to rebound from their 27-23 loss to Kansas City on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): The Broncos face a difficult situation traveling east to play in the 1 PM ET slot of games after playing on a short week. As it is, Denver is just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games when playing on a Sunday after a game for Monday Night Football. The Broncos have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. Denver did generate 385 yards of offense in that game — but they are just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. QB Case Keenum is second in the NFL with six interceptions and he has not thrown a touchdown pass in three weeks. His 60.1 Passer Rating is third from the bottom of all NFL starting QBs. The Broncos defense surrendered 446 yards to the Chiefs in that game — and they are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. This is Denver’s just second game away from home this year — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on the road. New York will be desperate for a win after losing three straight games. They do return home to the Meadowlands for just the second time this season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home. The offense only generated 178 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. It has been a trial by fire for Sam Darnold who played three games in the first eleven days of the season before then traveling to play the elite Jaguars defense last week. Don’t be surprised if the rookie steps up to play his best game of the season this afternoon. The Jets defense should play better as well — they rank in the top six in the league by holding their opponents to just 5.2 Yards-Per-Play and they have also forced 10 turnovers. New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Look for the Jets’ defense to step up and help New York end their three-game losing streak. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Kickoff with the New York Jets (460) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Denver Broncos (459). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (458) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (457). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (1-3) looks to bounce-back from their 22-0 shutout loss at Green Bay as an 8.5-point underdog. Tennessee (3-1) has won three straight games after their 26-23 upset win over Philadelphia in overtime as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen was even worse on the tape that his stats indicate. He completed just 16 of 33 passes for 151 yards with two interceptions. The rookie is going to be inconsistent — but remember how good he was two weeks ago at Minnesota against a stout Vikings defense where he completed an efficient 15 of 22 passes for 196 yards with a touchdown pass and no picks. The Bills should play closer to the one that made the playoffs last season as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Buffalo is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last game. Returning home will help after playing their last two games on the road — and the Bills have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 69 home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. Allen should be helped by LeSean McCoy who continues to see his injured ribs improve — he will be running against a mediocre Titans’ run defense that is allowing 118 rushing YPG along with 4.9 rushing Yards-Per-Carry. This Buffalo defense needs to play closer to the team that stymied the Vikings in Minnesota two weeks ago. The Bills surrendered 423 yards last week to the Packers — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Tennessee risks being overconfident in this game as they are favored for the first time all season. The Titans have pulled off three straight upset victories — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win as an underdog. Tennessee averaged 6.11 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have fled to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight road games after averaging at least 8.0 YPP. The Titans struggle to move the ball away from home as they are scoring only 14.5 PPG on the road while averaging 284.5 total YPG. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, the Titans are an awful 9-26-3 ATS in their last 38 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Look for Tennessee to be flat in this contest after pulling off three straight upsets. The Bills should play much better than their uninspired effort last week. 25* NFL AFC Underdog of the Month with the  Buffalo Bills (458) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (457). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (301) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (302). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (1-3) has lost two straight games after their 37-34 loss in overtime at home to Houston on Sunday as a 1-point underdog. New England (2-2) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 38-7 blowout win over Miami on Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Rookie head coach Frank Reich made a questionable decision to go for it on 4th down on their side of the field in overtime which they failed to convert. That left just enough time left for Deshaun Watson to complete a pass to give his team the opportunity to kick the game-winning field goal. The Colts may very well wish they had the tie on their final record rather than a loss as the playoff race heats up — especially with more and more of these overtime games ending in ties given the shortening of the extra time to just ten minutes. But Reich’s aggressive decision may have served to galvanize the locker room around him which will pay dividends moving forward. As it is, Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games after a straight loss. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 3 points or less. Quarterback Andrew Luck has been outstanding so far this season after missing all of last year with his bevy of injuries. Luck completed 40 of 62 passes for 464 yards with four touchdown passes as he is almost single-handedly carrying this team. The Indianapolis defense did allow 466 total yards to the Texans as they averaged 6.05 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after they allowed at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Moving forward, the Colts have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two straight games. Indy has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games the road — and they are a decisive 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games played on Thursday Night Football. New England got back to their winnings ways last week — but there are still concerns about this team. The offense lacks credible down-the-field targets — and tight end Rob Gronkowski is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. The offense is averaging only 337.2 total YPG — and the Patriots are being outgained by -10.2 net YPG this season. Despite reaching the Super Bowl last year, New England only outgained their opponents by +28.1 net YPG. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when listed as a favorite laying 7.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots are being asked to lay too many points on a short week. The Colts have lost two straight games but they those setbacks were by just seven combined points. Luck should help keep his team competitive and within single digits in this contest. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Indianapolis Colts (301) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (278) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (277). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (3-0) remained undefeated last week with their 38-27 win over San Francisco last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Denver (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 27-14 loss at Baltimore as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Chiefs raced out to a 35-10 lead at halftime last week against the 49ers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 54 games after leading by at least two touchdowns in their last game. The seeds of impending trouble for this team may have sown in the second-half of that contest as they were outscored by the 49ers by a 17-3 margin. Kansas City generated 384 yards in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Chiefs are struggling to find balance as they are averaging only 103 rushing YPG (just 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry) after only managing 77 yards on the ground against San Francisco. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. The Chiefs have scored at least 38 points in all three of their games so far this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points in each of their last three games. And while Mahomes has passed for 322 and 307 yards in his last two starts, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after passing for at least 300 yards in two straight games. While the Chiefs offense is clicking, the same cannot be said for their defense that ranks third to the bottom in the league in points allowed (30.7 PPG), total defense (474 YPG) and Yards-Per-Play Allowed (6.7 YPP). Denver has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in the first month of the season. This team has had this night circled on their calendar considering that they have lost five straight meetings with the Chiefs while also losing their last three opportunities to host Kansas City in Denver. They also were the first team to get first-hand experience against Watson as he made his first professional start last year on what resulted in a 27-24 win for the Chiefs back on December 31st. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 34 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The underdog has covered the point spread in 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams. The Kansas City offense is bound to come back to Earth at least somewhat — and the Chiefs defense and offensive line remain concerns. Expect the Broncos to play Kansas City very tough. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (278) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (275) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-1) enters this game coming off a 27-14 win at home hosting Denver last week as a 5.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (1-1-1) looks to build off their 30-27 upset win at Tampa Bay on Monday night as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: The Steelers struggle with consistency as of late — they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a straight-up win while also failing to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Pittsburgh is just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games played on a short week on a Sunday after playing on Monday Night Football. Their offense is getting a solid contribution from running back James Connor who has been pressed into duty given the holdout of Le’Veon Bell. But Connor has 70 touches already and risks losing steam without much help in the backfield — especially when playing on a short week. The absence of Bell has put more of the burden on the arm of Ben Roethlisberger who passed for 353 yards against the porous Buccaneers defense (that just made Mitchell Trubisky look like a Hall of Famer today). The Steelers are averaging 363 passing YPG in their first three games this season without Bell. But not only has Pittsburgh failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after averaging at least 275 passing YPG in their last three contests. This team has become sloppy under head coach Mike Tomlin as they are the most penalized team in the NFL entering Week Four by a wide margin with the next most penalized team committing nine fewer infractions. The Steel Curtain defense has also taken a step (or two) back in the wrong direction since losing Ryan Shazier at linebacker. Since he suffered that spinal injury last year, the Steelers have allowed their last ten opponents to score 28.8 PPG. Pittsburgh returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games. And in their last 4 games against fellow AFC North opponents, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread all 4 times. Baltimore lead the NFL in total defense by limiting their opponents to just 273.0 total YPG. But what might be surprising is that this team is fifth in the NFL by scoring 32.3 PPG. Going back to last season, the Ravens have scored at least 27 points in six of their last eight contests. Baltimore is a perfect 12 for 12 in the Red Zone in translating those opportunities into touchdowns. Quarterback Joe Flacco is having one of his best seasons as he clearly benefited from being healthy for training camp and the preseason. The veteran completed 25 of 40 passes last week for 277 yards — and the Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Head coach John Harbaugh’s team has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against fellow AFC North foes. Lastly, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 43 road games as an underdog getting no more than 3 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have an axe or two to grind with their arch rivals after the Steelers swept both games between these two teams. Baltimore might pull the upset outright — but taking the points will certainly be valuable in what should be a close game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (275) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). THE SITUATION: Oakland (0-3) is still looking for their first win of the season after they lost in Miami last week by a 28-20 score as a 3-point underdog. Cleveland (1-1-1) earned their first victory in two seasons last week with their 21-17 win over the New York Jets as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oakland dominated that game with the Dolphins when looking at the statistics. They outgained Miami by a 434 to 373 yardage edge. They churned out 25 first downs while holding the Dolphins to only 13 first downs. The Raiders also controlled the clock for 38:31 minutes of the game. Those are good fundamentals moving forward which should produce good results — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a game where they controlled Time of Possession for at least 34 minutes while also generating at least 24 first downs. Oakland should respond with a good effort as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread setback. It has been easy to criticize head coach Jon Gruden in his return to coaching as he has made some moves that deserve scrutiny. But the Raiders have also faced a very difficult schedule: the LA Rams, Denver Broncos and them the Dolphins last week have a combined 8-1 record entering Week Four. Furthermore, Oakland has been competitive in all these games as they have enjoyed second-half leads in all these games before suffering from letdowns in the 4th quarter. It was only in 2016 that quarterback Derek Carr tied an NFL record by engineering seven 4th quarter comebacks to win games — so these blown leads are a relatively new phenomenon for this Raiders’ quarterback. Carr is completing 76.6% of his passes so far this season. Cleveland is feeling as good about themselves in years after rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield came off the bench to rally the team from a 14-3 deficit to defeat the Jets on national television on Thursday Night Football. But traveling out west to make his first professional start will be a difficult assignment for Mayfield. The Browns are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games as an underdog. The Browns benefited from a +3 net turnover margin in their win against the Jets who were also relying on a rookie quarterback in Sam Darnold. Cleveland has played their last two games Under the Total with the help of their stout defense. But the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing two straight games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Gruden has assembled a group of veterans on his roster who know full well this is a desperate moment for the team. The Raiders have a big edge over the Browns at quarterback in this game — and Cleveland has not felt what it was like to play a game after a victory since when Barack Obama was President. 25* National Football League Game of the Month with the Oakland Raiders (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (262) minus the points versus the New York Jets (261). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 9-6 loss to Tennessee last week as a 10-point favorite. New York (1-2) looks to rebound from a 21-17 loss in Cleveland on Thursday Night Football as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville suffered a big emotional letdown last week after earning a small measure of revenge in their previous game against New England who defeated them in the AFC Championship Game. Quarterback Blake Bortles has improved — but it is evident that when he lowers his intensity, he becomes a below-average quarterback. The Jaguars managed only 232 yards of offense last week with Bortles passing for just 155 yards. Jacksonville should respond from that wake-up call last week. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread setback. Furthermore, the Jags have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards of offense. The team does look to get their star running back Leonard Fournette back for this game which will take some of the pressure off Bortles. This remains a team that is 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense by holding their opponents to just 14.7 PPG. They have allowed only three offensive touchdowns which is the fewest in the NFL. Jacksonville has also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against fellow AFC opponents. New York had a 14-point lead at halftime against the Browns but a -3 net turnover margin eventually led to their downfall. Now this team stays on the road for the second straight week where they are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They are still relying too much on a quarterback in Sam Darnold who is averaging 33 pass attempts per game. The rookie has showed flashes of brilliance but remains inexperienced. The Jets have also been slow starters this year as they have scored only 7 points in their three opening quarters this year — and that is a daunting number when facing this outstanding defense that becomes even more difficult when their opponents are playing from behind. Dealing with the Florida heat will also be an issue for this team that lacks depth. As it is, the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played in the month of September. And in their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents, New York has failed to cover the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars’ defense always shows up — and that spells trouble for Darnold and this subpar Jets’ offense. But with Fournette returning and Bortles embarrassed from last week’s game, this should be a blowout. 20* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Jacksonville Jaguars (262) minus the points versus the New York Jets (261). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (258) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (257). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (1-2) enters this game coming off a 27-6 upset win in Minnesota where they were big 16.5-point underdogs. Green Bay (1-1-1) looks to rebound from their 31-17 upset loss at Washington last Sunday as 2.5-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Bills caught the Vikings napping last week as they might have been looking ahead to their Thursday night showdown with Minnesota. Buffalo played very hard to earn that victory — but it is difficult to maintain that high level of focus and energy for two straight weeks. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after a double-digit victory as a road underdog getting at least 6 points. Buffalo has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games after a win by at least three touchdowns. Furthermore, while the Bills raced out to that 27-0 halftime lead to shellshocked Minnesota, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. This will be rookie Josh Allen’s first professional start in a hostile environment. He leads an offense that is scoring less than 17 PPG. And while the defense played well last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. Green Bay surrendered 386 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Skins. The Packers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 59 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Aaron Rodgers did participate in more practice this week with his sprained ACL being an injury that will get better over time. He should be better this week — and he has won eleven of his twelve starts at home against AFC opponents unfamiliar with him and Lambeau Field. Rodgers has not thrown an interception this season — and he owns a career 60-15-1 record at Lambeau. While those straight-up numbers do not take into account the point spread, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Packers have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay should bounce-back with a strong effort with the benefit of home-field advantage again at Lambeau Field. Buffalo will struggle to score enough points to keep up with Rodgers. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (258) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (257). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (252) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (251). THE SITUATION: New England (1-2) looks to bounce-back from their 26-10 loss at Detroit as a 7-point favorite last Sunday night. Miami (3-0) remains undefeated last week with their 28-20 win over Oakland.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England has endured two straight upset losses — but those games were on the road with some extenuating circumstances. That first loss was in Jacksonville with the Jaguars looking to avenge a playoff loss to New England — and then last week’s game was against a desperate Lions team that was winless and coached by their former defensive coordinator, Matt Patricia. Returning home should help the Patriots right their ship. This team is an incredible 43-19-1 ATS in their last 63 games after a straight-up loss and they have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. New England lost that game with the Lions because they were able to successfully play keep-away — the Patriots only had the ball for 20:45 minutes of that game. That explains why New England managed only 209 yards of offense — but they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 32 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And while New England allowed 414 yards in that contest, they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after allowing at least 350 yards. Furthermore, the Patriots have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC East opponents. And in their last 53 games at home, New England is a dominant 35-16-2 ATS. Miami entered this season under-the-radar as they felt they improved the culture of their football team by letting some of their big ego players go elsewhere. The Dolphins defeated the Raiders last week despite being outgained by -61 net yards. The Miami defense surrendered 434 yards in that game including 345 passing yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 27 games after allowing at least 250 yards in their last game. QB Ryan Tannehill completed 17 of 23 passes for 289 yards in that win but the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Now this team goes back not the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 contests. Furthermore, Miami is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games against fellow AFC East opponents. The Dolphins have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight trips to New England.

FINAL TAKE: This is a must-win game for the Patriots who cannot afford to fall three games behind the Dolphins in the AFC East standings. New England will also remember their 27-20 upset loss as a 10-point favorite the last time these two teams played on a Thursday night last December 11th. The home team has covered the point spread in this series in 11 of the last 12 encounters between these two football teams. 25* NFL AFC East Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (252) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (251). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (101) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-1-1) looks to bounce-back on a short week after being upset on Sunday at home against Buffalo by a  27-6 score despite being a big 16.5-point favorite in that game. Los Angeles (3-0) remained undefeated last week after winning the “Battle of Los Angeles” with their 35-23 victory over the Chargers at home as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Minnesota got caught napping last week as they perhaps began reading their own press clippings a bit too much. They should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 61 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Head coach Mike Zimmer has been vocal about the challenge his team faces about traveling out west on a short week to face a team that got to stay at home after their Week Three game. But this is why the Vikings are getting about a touchdown in this game as an underdog — and Zimmer has studied the best methods to handle this tough part of the schedule with the conclusion that getting his team into Los Angeles on Tuesday put his team in the best position to succeed. I expect Minnesota to play well by embracing this “us against the world” mentality. There are a few things the Vikings will want to do better in this game. First, they need to get off to a better start after trailing Green Bay by a 17-7 score at halftime two weeks ago before going into the locker rooms at halftime last week with a shocking 27-0 deficit to the winless Bills. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after trailing by double digits in each of their last two games. Second, the Vikings need to get more production out of their ground game after rushing the ball only six times last week for a mere 14 yards. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after failing to generate at least 90 rushing yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not even rushing for 30 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Vikings have still covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in the month of September despite failing to win games as the favorite in their last two games. Additionally, while the Vikings’ star defensive end Everson Griffen will not be playing in this game as he deals with some significant off-the-field issues, Minnesota is still loaded with talent on their deep defensive line (particular on the ends). Los Angeles generated 521 yards in their victory over the Chargers last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. This Rams team enters Week Four with some difficult injuries to overcome which is a relatively new phenomenon for this franchise that has led the NFL in the previous two seasons with games lost by prospective starters to injury. LA might be without both their new starting cornerbacks duo this season with Aqib Talib going on Injured Reserve with an ankle injury and Marcus Peters questionable with a calf injury. Starting interior linebacker Mark Barron is also listed as questionable with an ankle which might leave their vulnerable linebacking corps even thinner for this game. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games for Thursday Night Football.

FINAl TAKE: The Vikings dominated this matchup last year with their 24-7 win over the Rams back on November 19th. While LA is motivated by revenge, laying up to the touchdown for this game is probably too much to ask against an uber-talented and now angry Minnesota team. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Minnesota Vikings (101) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (489) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (490). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-1-1) is still looking for their first win of the season after losing at home to Kansas City by a 42-37 score despite being 4.5-point favorites in that game last Sunday. Tampa Bay (2-0) looks to continue their success after they upset Philadelphia at home last week by a 27-21 score as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh should bounce-back with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after suffering an upset loss. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 30 points inter last game. Pittsburgh did outgain the still-undefeated Chiefs in that game by a 475 to 449 margin. Moving forward, the Steelers are 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 12 expected close games with the point spread in the +/- 3-point range, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. Tampa Bay is getting great production out of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick but their defense remains a grave concern. They allowed Nick Foles to pass for 321 yards en route to the Eagles churning out 412 yards of offense. The Buccaneers are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Injuries are already ravaging this defensive unit with cornerback Vernon Hargreaves on Injured Reserve while rookie defensive tackle Vita Vea is out with a calf injury and cornerback Brent Grimes questionable with a groin. Tampa Bay had to rely on two rookie cornerbacks (M.J. Stewart and Carlton Davis) as their starters last week. They survived Foles and Philadelphia with that game finishing above the 46.5 point total — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Fitzpatrick is 0-5 as a starting quarterback when facing this Steelers team. Lastly, the Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Fitzpatrick has been great — but his defense has too many injuries right now. Pittsburgh should bounce-back with a strong effort. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with Pittsburgh Steelers (489) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (490). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (488) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (487). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 31-20 loss at Jacksonville last Sunday as a 2-point favorite. Detroit (0-2) remained winless so far this season last Sunday when they lost in San Francisco by a 30-27 score as a 6-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit has not looked very organized in their first two games under rookie head coach Matt Patricia. Their opening week loss at home to a rookie quarterback in Sam Darnold and the New York Jets was a nightmare. The Lions then had a difficult challenge to then head out west to face another team in the 49ers who also lost their opening game. Detroit outgained San Francisco by a 427 to 346 margin but returned home still winless in the Patricia era. Now with rumors of the veteran players rebelling against Patricia’s attempt to impose disciple and an increased work effort, this Lions team looks to be on the brink of a complete meltdown. What’s new in Detroit? But I think this team fits nicely into the ole “wounded animal” theory and I expect them to play their best game of the season with their backs against the wall while rallying around their head coach who has something to prove against his former team with which he won a Super Bowl as a defensive coordinator. QB Matthew Stafford played one of his worst games as a professional in that loss to the Jets on Monday Night Football as he threw five interceptions while too often looking lost in the pocket. But he rebounded nicely last week by completing 34 of his 53 passes for 347 yards while tossing three touchdown passes and no interceptions against the 49ers last week. Detroit has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. All is not lost with this team just yet as they have won nine games in each of their last two seasons. Talent exists on both sides of the football for this team. New England reaches the Super Bowl once again last year but there are certainly cracks in their armor as they only outgained their opponents by +28.1 net YPG. The Jaguars dominated the yardage battle last week by outgaining the Patriots by a 480 to 302 margin. While they faced an outstanding defense last week, this Patriots team is depleted at the wide receiver position — and the recently acquired Josh Gordon is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury after he came over in that trade with Cleveland. It is asking an awful lot of any team to cover the point spread on the road laying almost a touchdown. As it is, New England has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Expect the Lions to be fired-up at home in front of an energetic crowd with the opportunity to immediately right their proverbial ship by pulling the upset against the blue bloods of the NFL in the Patriots. While Detroit may not win the game, they should keep it close. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Detroit Lions (488) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (487). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (484) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (483). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-1) earned their first win of the season on national television on Monday with their 24-17 victory over Seattle as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday Night Football. Arizona (0-2) looks to pick themselves off the mat after they were shutout by a 34-0 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS: Arizona has looked like the worst team in the NFL after getting outscored by an embarrassing 58 to 6 mark in their first two games under first-year head coach Steve Wilkes. Expect the Cardinals to play their best game of the young season this afternoon after these awful efforts. Arizona has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a loss by at least four touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after being shutout. Furthermore, the Cardinals have covered the point spread in 43 of their last 65 home games after losing their previous two games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Arizona offense was pathetic last week as they managed only 137 yards of offense against the stout Rams defense. But this Cardinals offense is not nearly as bad as those numbers suggest under veteran quarterback Sam Bradford — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards of offense. Arizona needs to play better on both sides of the ball after giving up 342 passing yards and 432 yards overall. The Cardinals are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards. And in their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points, Arizona has covered the point spread 4 times. Chicago does not deserve to be a road favorite laying close to a touchdown against any of their NFL peers. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as the favorite. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a game at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road. The Bears benefited from a 49-yard interception return for a touchdown that ended up being the winning difference against the Seahawks. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the month of September. And while the Bears defense limited Seattle to just 74 rushing yards in their last game, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona is not as bad as their terrible numbers suggest after facing an underrated Washington team before a juggernaut in the Rams last week. It is hard seeing the Bears beating anyone by almost a touchdown when they are playing on the road. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Arizona Cardinals (484) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (483). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (474) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (473). THE SITUATION: Oakland (0-2) remained winless in the second incarnation of the Jon Gruden era last week when they lost to the Broncos in Denver by a 20-19 score as a 5.5-point underdog. Miami (2-0) is a surprise undefeated team after their upset the Jets in New York last week by a 20-12 score as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. And while QB Derek Carr passed for 288 yards last week, Oakland is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards. Some stats would suggest that the marriage of Gruden with Carr has worked wonders since Carr is completing a magnificent 85% of his passes this season. Yet those passes have too often been an exercise in dink and dunks as the gunslinger has thrown only one touchdown pass this year. Carr has now lost his last six starts while possessing a meager 6:8 touchdown to interception ratio while leading an offense that is scoring only 14 PPG. The defense has registered only two sacks while allowing their opponents to convert on 45% of their third-down opportunities. The Raiders stay on the road where they have lost seven of their last eight games. Oakland is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road while also going only 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Even more troubling for this team is that while they are outscoring their opponents by a 25-10 margin in the first half this season, they have been outscored by a whopping 43-7 mark in the second half. That points to poor coaching — and it is a terrible omen for a team that has to travel east to play an early 1 PM ET start with their body clocks still thinking it is 10 AM. Miami started fast last week by seizing a 20-0 lead at halftime against the Jets — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 3 points in the first half of their last game. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. This Miami team entered the season under the radar but I saw potential with a group that head coach Adam Gace felt very good about after the team cleaned house with some of the underachieving egos on the roster. QB Ryan Tannehill has now won nine of this last ten starts as well as going an impressive 17-7 straight-up in his last twenty-four starts. While the Dolphins had only 122 passing yards last week after accounting for sack yardage, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to pass for at least 150 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: I thought Gruden might see early success before the toll of having so many aging veterans began to expose itself. Instead, things look as bad as the biggest cynics suggested. I hate the travel situation for the Raiders in this game who have relied on fast starts in their first two games — it is typical for west coast teams to start slow when playing out east for the early games. The icing on the cake is that the Dolphins are playing with revenge from a  27-24 loss to Oakland last November. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Kickoff with the Miami Dolphins (474) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (462) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (461). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 27-21 upset loss in Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite last week. Indianapolis (1-1) enters this game coming off a 21-9 upset victory in Washington as a 6-point underdog against the Skins.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss . The big news for this game is that Carson Wentz will return to the field and start this game at quarterback. The offense was not bad last week under Nick Foles who completed 35 of 48 passes for 334 yards while leading the unit to generate 412 total yards. But Wentz is a different breed — and even if he is not 100% from his torn ACL from last year, he is a big upgrade as an offensive weapon. His 33 touchdown passes led the NFL at the time of his Week 13 injury last year. As it is, Philly has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Eagles defense allowed 436 yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Philadelphia is missing some weapons at wide receiver and running back — but they are close to full strength on their offensive and defensive lines that I consider the best units in football. That should make the difference in this game. Indianapolis is a M*A*S*H unit already this year. They entered the season with a whopping twelve players on Injured Reserve which is devastating for a franchise that already had significant talent and depth issues. It has since only gotten worse with the following notable starters out for this game: left tackle Anthony Castanzo, tight end Jack Doyle, running back Marlon Mack, cornerback Quincy Wilson, defensive tackle Hassan Ridgeway. This is terrible news for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. The Colts have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Too many injuries for this Indianapolis team now traveling to face an angry Philly team who proved last year that their depth on the roster was one of the strengths that helped them win the Super Bowl. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Philadelphia Eagles (462) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (479) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (480). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-0) returns home for their first game of the season at the new Arrowhead Stadium after their 42-37 upset win at Pittsburgh. San Francisco (1-1) looks to build off their 30-27 win over the Lions at home last week as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: I would not respect myself if I did not puts some chips in to invest against the Chiefs with a contrarian play given all the love this team is getting from bettors. Kansas City’s perceived value will never be higher than it is right now after pulling off two straight upset victories on the road with Patrick Mahomes wowing on-lookers (and genius fantasy football enthusiasts) with his video game numbers so far. There will be a learning curve for Mahomes as opposing defensive coaches staffs gather tape on the new offense head coach Andy Reid has designed for his new quarterback. The Chiefs topped their 362 yards of offense in Week One against the Chargers by compiling 475 yards against a perhaps overrated Steelers defense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. KC has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 35 points in two straight games. Furthermore, what has been lost in the rush to put Mahomes into the Hall of Fame is that the Chiefs abysmal play on defense as they are allowing 32.5 PPG and 508.0 total YPG. Kansas City has surrendered more than 400 passing yards in each of their first two contests which should raise red flags for a defense that severely misses Eric Berry in their defensive backfield. San Francisco probably entered this season overrated after winning their last five games. QB Jimmy Garoppolo perhaps was a harbinger for what Mahomes will soon experience as his incredible numbers have come back down to earth as defenses adapt. But this 49ers team is certainly good enough to stay within a touchdown’s length of most teams even when playing on the road. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. The 49ers have also covered the point spread in 3 straight games after a narrow win by 3 points or less.

FINAL TAKE: I often tease (sometimes mock) the overblown chatter about sharp and square plays — so-called sharp bettors lose all the time while public “square” bets certainly win enough to keep those bettors engaged. But we want to be invested in conventional “sharp” bets like this with the overwhelming majority of the money going on the Chiefs. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (479) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (476) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (475). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a sluggish 21-9 upset loss at home last week to Indianapolis as a 6-point favorite. Green Bay (1-0-1) kissed their sister last week but probably feel pretty good about their 29-29 tie with Minnesota considering that they were 2-point underdogs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: Washington should respond with a strong effort in this game as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Skins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home while they have also covered the point spread in 3 straight games after a double-digit upset loss as a home favorite laying at least 6 points in that game. Washington was feeling pretty good about themselves after a dominating opening win on the road at Arizona by a 24-6 score. Head coach Jay Gruden has an under-appreciated defense that is poaching Alabama defensive talent. Defensive end Jonathan Allen was off to a great start last year before his rookie season was cut short after five games with a foot injury. He reunited this year with nose tackle Da’Ron Payne whom the Skins drafted with their first-round pick this offseason. With cornerback Josh Norman leading the way, Washington was 9th in the NFL in pass defense. They collapsed to finishing last in the league in run defense but they were much better in those first five games with Allen in the mix. This season, the Skins are second in the NFL by allowing only 13.5 PPG while leading the league by giving up only 247.0 total YPG. They should play better on offense this afternoon behind QB Alex Smith as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. This will be the Packers first game away from Lambeau Field this season. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games when laying no more than a field goal. Green Bay pulled out the tie with the Vikings last week after getting outgained by 129 net yards last week. They survived that game due to a touchdown they scored after blocking a punt in the end zone. This team could easily be winless entering this game if what was not for the miracle comeback from Aaron Rodgers on Sunday Night Football in the opening week of the season. But Rodgers is still gimpy and only one bad hit away from the Pack relying on the disastrous DeShone Kizer under center. As it is, Rodgers is not the same quarterback away from Green Bay as he holds only a 43-42 career record on the road while losing ten of his last seventeen starts on the road. Furthermore, I think the Packers are at a disadvantage on both sides of the line of scrimmage in this game against the Skins. Green Bay is averaging only 83 rushing YPG while giving up 103 rushing YPG. Lastly, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The opportunity to take Washington as a home dog in this spot is a great situation for us. Let’s attack. 25* NFL NFC Underdog of the Month with the Washington Redskins (476) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (467) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (468). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-1) looks to build off their narrow 21-18 win over Cleveland last Sunday. Atlanta (1-1) also earned their first win of the season last Sunday with their 31-24 win over Carolina.

THE SITUATION: The Falcons are simply ravaged with injuries right now. The defense took two devastating losses in their opening game of the season against the Eagles when safety Keanu Neal and Deion Jones both suffered what are likely season-ending injuries. Those two players might very well be the best two players that head coach Dan Quinn has on that side of the ball. To make matters worse when facing Drew Brees and company, Atlanta will be without last year’s first-round draft pick in Takkarist McKinley after the defensive end was downgraded to being out with a groin injury. The Falcons surrendered 318 passing yards last week to the Panthers that does not have the weapons that the Saints enjoy — and Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. On offense, the Falcons are also without their top running back DeVonta Freeman who is dealing with an ankle injury — his absence will not make things easier for this team in the Red Zone. Of course, Atlanta still has wide receiver Julio Jones — but he has only one touchdown catch in his last nine games. Jones has not saved his prolific games for the Saints either as he has only one touchdown catch in his last eight games against New Orleans. These are all bad signs for a Falcons team that tends to suffer letdowns. Not only has Atlanta failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win but they have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 50 games after a win at home against an NFC South rival. Even worse, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 29 home games after a win at home. New Orleans has yet to cover a point spread this season — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to cover point spread expectations in each of their last two games. Both of the Saints’ first two games have finished Under the Total — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after playing two straight Unders. Furthermore, New Orleans has lost the turnover battle in each of their first two games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after suffering at least a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games. Brees owns a 16-9 career record against Atlanta and should be prepared to outgun Matt Ryan in this one. Fading the Saints away from the Superdome had a brief period of success — but it is a sucker’s bet these days (if that is one’s only reason). New Orleans has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games on the road while also covering the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games as an underdog. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games played on grass.

FINAL TAKE: The underdog has covered the point spread in 7 of the last 9 meetings between these two teams. I just hate the injuries that Atlanta has endured so far this season — their losses on defense will be too much to overcome when facing Brees while being undermanned on offense without Freeman and still working out their Red Zone issues with offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. 25* NFL NFC South Game of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (467) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (302) minus the points versus the New York Jets (301). THE SITUATION: New York (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 20-12 upset loss at home to Miami last week as a 3-point favorite. Cleveland (0-1-1) also looks to rebound from a 21-18 loss in New Orleans as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a very tough challenge for the Sam Darnold with this game being played on a short week against a Gregg Williams-coached defense that will show him plenty of exotic looks. To compound matter, this is the rookie’s third game in just eleven days which is a very difficult way to start an NFL career. Darnold did complete 25 of 41 passes for 334 yards but don’t be surprised if Darnold looks overwhelmed at times in this game. As it is, the Jets are just 1-4-1 in the Jets’ last 6 games after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards in their last game. And while Darnold has led the offense to average 6.12 and 6.03 Yards-Per-Play in their first two games this season, New York has then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in each of their last two games. Now the Jets go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games as an underdog. And in their last 13 games played on grass, New York is just 3-9-1 in those contests. Cleveland should respond with a strong effort tonight as they continue to play with a chip on their shoulder looking for their first victory since December 24, 2016. Don’t blame the Browns for that loss in the Big Easy as they held the potent Saints’ offense to just 275 yards of offense. This is a unit that is emerging into one of the better units in the league. Led by second-year defensive end Myles Garrett, Cleveland has already registered 7 sacks this year which is 5th best in the NFL. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 22 games after a loss on the road by no more than a field goal. The Browns have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on Thursday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: After playing two playoff teams to tough games with their tie against the Steelers in Week One before their 3-point loss in the Superdome to the New Orleans last week, look for an energized crowd to help the Browns to victory tonight. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (302) minus the points versus the New York Jets (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (289) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (290). THE SITUATION: Seattle (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 27-24 loss at Denver last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Chicago (0-1) also looks rebound from a narrow loss after they lost in Green Bay last Sunday night by a 27-24 score as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle should play well tonight as they are 10-3-2 ATS in their last 15 games after a straight-up loss. And while they come off a scoring fest last week against the Broncos, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total while also covering the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. Many bettors are down on this Seahawks team after their disappointing 2017-18 season which saw them move on from a number of veterans in the offseason. But head coach Pete Carroll has created a younger roster this year — and he has a proven track record of getting the most of a group of youthful players. Seattle is 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Seahawks are also 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on Monday Night Football. Chicago played great in the first-half last week as they raced out to a 17-0 lead going into halftime at Lambeau Field — but they were outscored by a dominant 24-7 margin in the second-half. The Bears held the Packers to just 69 rushing yards in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight gams after allowing no more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. An injured Aaron Rodgers did torch the Chicago secondary for 301 yards — and they are a rough 17-39-1 ATS in their last 57 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Bears did manage only 294 yards on offense with their offense slowing down considerably after running through their set of scripted plays from rookie head coach Matt Nagy to quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. Moving forward, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the month of September — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played in the second week of the season. Furthermore, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 8 games against fellow NFC opponents, Chicago is 2-5-1 ATS.

FINAL TAKE: Many bettors will remember how good the Bears looked in the first-half of their prime time game against Green Bay which is why the original -2.5 points they were laying have been bet up to more than 4 points in many spots. The Seahawks are a bit underrated right now — making these points very valuable. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Seattle Seahawks (289) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (290). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (288) minus the points versus the New York Giants (287). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 20-15 loss a home to Jacksonville last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Dallas (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 16-8 loss at Carolina as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas has stepped up to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the second week of the NFL season. Their defense played quite well by holding the Panthers to just 16 points at home — this Cowboys defense should continue to play well given their balance after finishing last year 8th in the NFL in run defense and 11th in pass defense. Look for the Dallas offense to play better back at home. Remember that the Cowboys had won eighteen of their last twenty-four games before the Ezekiel Elliott four-game suspension last season. This team was also hit hard by two tough injuries to left tackle Tyron Smith and linebacker Sean Lee. Dallas is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow teams from the NFC East. New York (0-1) has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against NFC opponents. The problems for this team last week as they managed to generate only 324 yards of offense. The Giants ranked 31st in the NFL last year by scoring only 15.4 PPG — and their 15 points last week included a defensive 32-yard interception returned for a touchdown. New York has failed to cover the point spread in has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played in the month of September — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in Week 2 of the new season. Moving forward, the Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games as an underdog getting 7 or less points. New York has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas should flex their muscles with the benefit of home field advantage — and they swept the Giants in their two games last year. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Dallas Cowboys (288) minus the points versus the New York Giants (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (102) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Baltimore Ravens (101). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (1-0) opened their season in glowing fashion by crushing Buffalo by a 47-3 score last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Cincinnati (1-0) also enters this divisional game with a victory as they defeated the Colts in Indianapolis by a 34-23 score as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The Ravens were perhaps the most impressive looking team in the opening week of the season (and we were on them) — but they look likely to suffer a bit of a letdown now. Baltimore is 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road after a win by at least three touchdowns. And while the Ravens held the Bills to just 153 yards of offense which allowed them to outgain them by +116 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +100 yards. Baltimore is also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after failing to allow more than 14 points in their last contest. Now the Ravens travel to Cincinnati on a short week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on field turf. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Cincy defense did allow 380 yards in that contest, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bengals under head coach Marvin Lewis typically overachieve relative to point spread expectations as they are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games in the month of September. And in Cincinnati’s last 5 games against AFC North foes, the Bengals have covered the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore will certainly be feisty in this game after seeing their playoff aspirations destroyed last year with their 31-27 upset loss at home to the Bengals in the final week of the regular season. But Lewis can call on his team being shutout at home by a 20-0 score to these Ravens in the first meeting between these two teams back on September 10th. The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 trips to Cincinnati. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (102) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Baltimore Ravens (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (481). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-0) is one of the top favorites to reach the Super Bowl this season after their 11-5 campaign last year. Oakland (0-0) looks to recapture past glory by bringing back head coach Jon Gruden after their disappointing 6-10 season last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: I will admit that I am skeptical of some of the moves that Gruden has made since returning to Oakland. Letting Khalil Mack go is not one of them. While the linebacker is one of the best defensive players in the league, the Raiders simply cannot afford him. It is just that simple. Perhaps Oakland can entertain the debate once they move to Las Vegas the wisdom of spending 40% of their salary cap on just two players. The Lions tried that out with Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Ndamukong Suh (OK, that is three players) — and we know how that plan worked out. In the meantime, before the Raiders move to Vegas where the purse strings will be loosened, Gruden’s plan is to lean heavily on veterans who can execute his sophisticated game plans in a new league where practice times are limited during the season. I do expect the Raiders’ offense to come out with plenty of new wrinkles that Gruden has been accumulating in the nine years since he left Tampa Bay for the Monday Night Football television booth. He does have the quarterback who can execute these schemes in Derek Carr. While Oakland was probably not as good as their 12-4 record back in 2016, they are better than what their 6-10 mark last year suggests. Frankly, just the move of removing last year’s offensive coordinator Todd Browning will represent an upgrade for this team. They should play well out of the gate for Gruden as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the month of September including covering the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new season. The Raiders are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on Monday Night Football. Gruden’s teams have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 7 point range. Los Angeles has added the aforementioned Suh along with cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib amongst a handful of splashy free agent acquisitions. I remain skeptical that the sum of these parts will be as good as advertised as this is now a roster with plenty of big personalities — and the formula of buying a Super Bowl has a bad track record in the NFL. This Rams team was exposed in the playoffs when they were upset by Atlanta by a 26-13 score despite playing that game at home. Los Angeles may start this season slow under the weight of Super Bowl expectations as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 opening games to a new season. And while the Rams were 7-1 on the road last year, they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games in the opening two weeks of the season. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 7 appearances on Monday Night Football, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams roster is loaded but expecting them to cover a point spread more than a field goal against a quality opponent is simply too much to ask. Don’t be surprised if the Raiders pull the upset in Gruden’s official return to Oakland — but definitely grab the valuable points in this game for some insurance. 25* NFL Bailout Game of the Year with the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (480) minus the points versus the New York Jets (479). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) officially begins the Sam Darnold era tonight as they hope to improve on their 5-11 season last year. Detroit (0-0) missed the playoffs last year after their second straight 9-7 campaign.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: Darnold demonstrated that he might be the most advanced of all the incoming rookie quarterbacks in the preseason — but he has still yet to encounter sophisticated defenses with defensive coordinators sticking to vanilla schemes in exhibition games. Rookie head coach Matt Patricia will surely make sure that the Lions’ defense will employ some of the same sophisticated defensive concepts that he used as the defensive coordinator for the New England Patriots. Darnold had turnover issues in college at USC — he threw 13 interceptions in his last fourteen starts. Playing in a hostile environment will also represent a new challenge for Darnold. As it is, the Jets are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. Additionally, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games as an underdog. The Jets were only 1-7 straight up on the road last year with four of those losses being against teams with a losing record.  New York was the fifth most penalized team in the league last year which did no favors for their defense which was 25th in the NFL by allowing 352.3 total YPG. The Jets also are likely to start this season slow considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September. Detroit has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new season with Matthew Stafford at quarterback. The ten-year veteran thrives when playing at home at Ford Field where he has an outstanding 60:19 touchdown-to-interception ratio while averaging 7.78 Yards-Per-Attempt with his passing game over the last two seasons as compared to his more modest 47:26 ratio along with a 6.94 YPA when playing on the road. The Lions were hit hard by injuries particularly on their offensive line as they had twelve different starting lineups on their line while trying twenty-one difference combinations last season. That group begins this season healthy while significantly upgrading their rushing attack by drafting Kerryon Johnson from Auburn while signing LeGarrette Blount from the Eagles. Patricia wants to run the ball more to keep his defense off the field. He inherits a defense that was second in the NFL by forcing turnovers in 16.8% of their opponent’s possessions. Detroit has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Lions have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit did not look very good in the preseason but Patricia did not reveal much of his new plans for the team. A healthy Lions team that runs the ball more should help Stafford be even more effective — and he has developed into one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league as it is. Detroit should overwhelm a Jets team that has not done much to upgrade their roster outside of placing their future in the hands of Darnold. 25* NFL Monday Night Special Feature with the Detroit Lions (480) minus the points versus the New York Jets (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (477) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (478). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-0) begins play under their new head coach Matt Nagy after John Fox was let go after their 5-11 campaign last season. Green Bay (0-0) is happy to get Aaron Rodgers back after he missed seven games last year with a broken collarbone in what ended up being a 7-9 season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: It might look easy to take the Packers with Rodgers healthy again given the quarterback’s 16-4 record in his last twenty starts against Chicago. And without counting the two games that he has had to exit with his two broken collarbone injuries, Green Bay is 94-46 straight-up in Rodgers’ last one-hundred and forty starts. But winning this game at home in Lambeau Field is one thing — and defeating a highly-motivated divisional rival by at least a touchdown is another. There are signs of decline in Rodgers game as his 5.5 yards per completion rate last year was the third lowest amongst NFL starters last year. That decline continues a disturbing trend that has seen Rodgers’ Yards-Per-Attempt average drops to a 6.91 mark over his last three seasons which is not only below the higher numbers earlier in his career but it is also a bit below the 7.24 YPA NFL average. A below-average rushing attack has been one of the culprits as it has decreased the effectiveness of their play-action passing attack. Green Bay averaged just 5.8 Yards-Per-Attempt in Play-Action passes — and they are averaging only 6.4 YPA for these plays since 2015 which is also far below the 10.8 YPA average Rodgers enjoyed at the peak of his tenure with the Packers. Second-year running back Aaron Jones is out for this game with a two-game suspension which leaves the rushing duties primarily to former BYU tailback Jamaal Williams who averaged just 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry in his rookie year. To compound matters, Rodgers’ wide receiving crew may be the weakest he has had in Green Bay yet it is the offensive line that is probably still the weak link with the unit. The Packers’ defense was last in the NFL last year by allowing 2.2 Points Per Drive which makes the 24.0 PPG (26th in the NFL) they allowed look even worse. While the Packers won only seven games last year, they also enjoyed three net close wins decided by one scoring possession. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home in Lambeau Field. Chicago’s record suffered from three net losses in games decided by 8 points or less. Injuries have riddled this team over the years: they have lost 366 (adjusted) combined games to likely starters who were out because of injuries going back to 2015 which is not only the worst mark in the NFL during the span but well above the 214.4 averaged adjusted number games impacted by injury. This is a healthy Bears team tonight with none of their projected starters dealing with any issues. The Bears’ offense averaged only 16.5 PPG last year but I am expecting significant improvement from this unit this season. Nagy was brought in to play the role of Sean McVay who helped quarterback Jared Goff blossom in his second year. Mitchell Trubisky showed glimpses of his enormous potential last year but was often held back by the conservative play-calling of the offense. Trubisky also lacked weapons at wide receiver — and this was addressed in the offseason with Chicago signing Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and tight end Trey Burton in the offseason. Those targets will help open things up for running backs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. Nagy and his offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich revealed very little of their plans for their new offseason with plenty of Run-Pass-Options expected — so Green Bay’s defense may be caught by a few surprises tonight. The defense was a top-ten unit last year in both points allowed (20.0 PPG) and yards allowed (319.1 YPG) — and they have added Kahlil Mack to provide the pressure from the edge this unit has lacked. Mack has only been with the team seven days but he should certainly be on the field for all the passing downs. The Packers tend to play closer than expected games against familiar foes as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against NFC opponents while also failing to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC North rivals.

FIANL TAKE: Chicago lost both games to the Packers last year by 21 points at Lambeau and then by 7 points at home at Soldier Field. While expecting them to pull the upset may be too much to ask, I do expect a feisty battle from them — with a healthy roster — against a foe they are very familiar with. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (477) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (470) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (469). Kansas City (0-0) begins the Patrick Mahomes era at quarterback this afternoon after they made a change at quarterback after another early exit in the playoffs after a 10-6 regular season campaign. Los Angeles (0-0) hopes to get off to a faster start this year after they finished 9-7 last year after enduring a horrendous start to the 2017 season under new head coach Anthony Lynn.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Chargers closed out last year winning nine of their last twelve games as well as six of their last seven games so there is plenty of optimism inside this franchise. This opening game was certainly circled not only because of the imperative to get off to a better start but also because Los Angeles was swept by the Chiefs last year. The Chargers lost in Kansas City by a 24-10 score on September 24th before then losing by a 30-13 score at home on December 16th despite being a 1-point favorite. Despite that loss, Los Angeles outscored their visitors by +9.9 PPG at home (despite playing in that soccer stadium without rabid fan support). The Chargers clearly feel more comfortable playing in StubHub Stadium as they outgained by their opponents by +75.0 net YPG. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games. The Chargers are also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 opening games to a new season. Kansas City decided to move on from Alex Smith at quarterback after they became enthralled with the passing potential of their second-year QB Patrick Mahomes. But the most under-appreciated aspect of “check-down Charlie” was that Smith did a great job in protecting the football. Smith threw only 5 interceptions last year. Head coach Andy Reid may be humming some Cinderella “Don’t Know What You Got (Till It’s Gone)” as Mahomes’ potent arm also risks many more turnovers — especially when playing in a hostile environment. Remember that Mahomes played in only one game last year — and this will be his first professional start. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. The bigger problem for this team is their defense that will have seven new starters on the field this afternoon. The team will be without their leader in safety Eric Berry who is out with a sore heel. Berry was injured for last year which contributed to the KC defense ranking 29th against the pass and 25th against the run. When the Chiefs went on the road last year, they allowed their home hosts to generate 389.9 total YPG. Mahomes will have to outduel Philip Rivers in this one — and the veteran QB was outstanding last year by passing for more than 4500 yards to rank second in the NFL while tossing 28 touchdown passes. 

FINAL TAKE: With Mahomes making his first professional start on the road and the Chargers very motivated after suffering not only two losses to the Chiefs last year but eight straight losses to their AFC West rivals with their last victory being way back on December 29th, 2013. What all those losses to Kansas City have in common was Alex Smith under center delivering the daggers to their defense. Smith is now in Washington which gives LA a clean slate to exact a small measure of revenge. 25* NFL AFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (470) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (456) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (455). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (0-0) takes the field again after they lost in Philadelphia to the Eagles in the NFC Conference Championship Game. San Francisco (0-0) has renewed optimism after winning their final five games to finish 6-10 last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: The Vikings were very tough when playing at home in the Metrodome last year. Minnesota was 7-1 at home last season with an average winning margin of +11.4 PPG. While the offense scored a healthy 25.2 PPG, the defense was absolutely nasty when playing at home as they held their guests to just 13.8 PPG while limiting them to only 260.7 total YPG. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when laying 7 points or less. The offense should be better this season. The team has upgraded at quarterback by dumping all their QBs from last year and getting out their paycheck to sign Kirk Cousins from Washington. While Case Keenum was a pleasant surprise last year, Cousins is a more dangerous passer with a host of intriguing weapons at his disposal. And don’t forget the team gets back their spark-plug in Dalvin Cook who is tearing up the league before he suffered his season-ending injury. The Vikings usually start strong as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of September. San Francisco is very excited about continuing the Jimmy Garappolo era after he won all five of his starts last season. But the former Patriot is likely to see the Regression Gods make an appearance with his gaudy numbers from last year — and his subpar 7-to-5 touchdown to interception ratio from last season looms as a red flag. Garappolo still lacks a tall target from his cadre of receivers for Red Zone action — and the team received terrible news when their big offseason signing of running back Jerick McKinnon from these Vikings when he tore his ACL to end his season. The 49ers starting running back this afternoon will be journeyman Alfred Morris which is a bad sign when facing this stout Vikings defense. The San Fran defense remains a work in progress this year with pass rush being perhaps the biggest concern. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games in the first-half of the season. The 49ers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing on field turf. And in their last 9 games as an underdog in the +3.5 to +9.5 point range, San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers are a trendy sleeper team to make a playoff run in the NFC — but they will likely have a rude awakening traveling east to play in Minnesota for this early game. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (456) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (460) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (459). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (0-0) enters this season with a sense of urgency after missing the playoffs despite a 9-7 season. Buffalo (0-0) seized the Ravens’ final slot in the AFC playoffs in the final week of the season when they ended the year with a 9-7 mark and eked them out in the tie-breaker before losing a tight game in Jacksonville the next week in the AFC Wildcard round.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore lost five games last year decided by one-possession including that last game of the regular season against the Bengals where they blew a 4th quarter lead by allowing a 44-yard touchdown pass with just 44 seconds left in that game. The Ravens returned this season with a sense of purpose led by quarterback Joe Flacco who was able to workout during the entire offseason after missing last year’s preseason after recovering from his ACL injury. Flacco seems poised to have his best season in years. The defense was outstanding last year including registering three shutouts during the season. Baltimore led the NFL with 3 takeaways including ten forced turnovers in the first two weeks of the season. The Ravens have covered the point sported in 15 of their last 20 games in the first two weeks of the season under head coach John Harbaugh — and this includes them covering the point spread in seven of their last ten opening weeks to a new season. Facing this defense should be a scary proposition for Buffalo who will be starting quarterback Nathan Peterman on the road who was an interception machine in his lone start last year by throwing five picks in the first half against the Chargers. While the Bills made the playoffs last year, this team looks likely to take a number of steps backward this season. QB Tyrod Taylor was steady under center for the team last year while perhaps doing his best work by not turning the ball over. The franchise moved on from Taylor by drafting Josh Allen in the first-round of the NFL draft but the rookie from Wyoming demonstrated he was not ready to start in the NFL in the preseason. The Bills also have significant issues on their offensive line. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on field turf — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Baltimore.

FINAL TAKE: While Buffalo stole the Ravens playoff spot last season, these teams look to be moving in the opposite direction. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Kickoff with the Baltimore Ravens (460) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (459). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (462) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (461). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (0-0) returns to the field again after losing in the AFC Championship Game in which they lost in New England by a 24-20 score. New York (0-0) has undertaken a new start after crashing and burning last year with a 3-13 record.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Jaguars return 21 of 22 starters from last year — but one of those starters remains embattled quarterback Blake Bortles. The team signed him to a two-year extension after he did not commit a turnover in the playoffs. However, Bortles threw 13 interceptions in the regular season (7th most in the NFL) while only attempting 547 passes through the playoffs which was his lowest amount since his rookie season. Significant issues remain for this quarterback for which it is rumored that head coach Doug Marrone and his coaching staff limits his practice time against the Jags’ defense so as to not impair his confidence. Short-to-medium range accuracy remains an issue for the former Central Florida quarterback while his capacity to read NFL wide receiver routes is still a question mark. And while all quarterbacks struggle under pressure, Bortles’ becomes almost completely ineffective against quality pass rushes with his Passer Rating of 96.0 dropping to 55.2 — and that 40.8 drop in Passer Rating under pressure is the biggest collapse of all NFL quarterbacks. Bortles is also without one of his key weapons with wide receiver Marquise Lee out the season with a knee injury. Of course, the strength of this Jacksonville defense is their defense that was 2nd in the NFL in points allowed (16.8 PPG) and total yards allowed (286.1 YPG). But the Regression Gods are likely to make a visit with this team given those outstanding numbers — especially for a pass defense that was historically excellent. A favorable strength of schedule helped prop up those numbers last year. And run defense was an issue as they allowed opposing rushers to average 4.3 Yards-Per-Carry. The formula for success for this team was for the defense to ensure that they took a lead which allowed Bortles to execute most of his passes from play-action plays. But this team is not equipped to come-from-behind. The Jags only won one game last year when trailing at halftime — and they were 2-5 straight-up when their opponents scored first. That is not a good sign when playing on the road where they were just 4-4 last year with questionable losses at Arizona, San Francisco and Tennessee. Jacksonville failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against NFC opponents. The Jaguars have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games in expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range. And the Jaguars tend to start the new season slow as they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games in the month of September — including failing to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to the season. New York should make significant improvements this season being just one year removed from their 11-5 campaign in 2016-17. The Giants suffered four net close losses decided by one possession. Furthermore, the team was ravaged by injuries particularly on offense with their wide receivers and their offensive line. QB Eli Manning will have a significant upgrade of talent in his huddle today with Odell Beckham, Jr. healthy and happy with his new contract along with rookie Saquon Barkley at running back along with a healthy line that has added left tackle Nate Solder from New England. The defense hopes to return to their outstanding 2016 form under new defensive coordinator James Bettcher after the unit was a dysfunctional mess as they rebelled against former head coach Bob McAdoo. Butcher brought in a former player with the Cardinals in defensive end Kareem Martin who will serve as a de-facto coach on the field. The Giants are not home underdogs very often in the Manning era — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as a home underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This is a good opening situation to invest in with Jacksonville a bit overrated after their deep playoff run last year while New York being undervalued after they hot rock bottom last year. Grab the points and don’t be surprised if the Giants pull the upset. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (462) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (452). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (0-0) will have their Super Bowl Ring Ceremony at home at Liberty Financial Field as they open the NFL season at home after defeating New England in last year’s Super Bowl. Atlanta (0-0) will be playing with revenge on their minds after losing in this building last January 13th in a 15-10 loss to the Eagles in the NFC Divisional Round of the Playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE ATLANTA PLUS THE POINTS: The Falcons have spent the entire offseason stewing about that loss as they had the ball inside the 10-yard line with the opportunity to win that game before failing to reach pay dirt in four plays. That final series of plays demonstrated the difficulties Atlanta had all season in the Red Zone. While the Falcons were 8th in the NFL in total offense by averaging 364.8 total YPG, they dropped to 15th in the league by scoring 22.1 PPG. Most of that blame has been placed on their first-year offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian — and I consider those criticisms very fair for a cronyism hire for Dan Quinn with both coaches in the Pete Carroll coaching tree. Sarkisian’s only previous NFL experience was a Quarterback’s Coach with the Raiders under Bill Musgrove in middle-aughts before serving as Carroll’s OC at USC before taking that head coaching job when Carroll dashed to Seattle before NCAA penalties were handed down on the Trojans’ program. Sarkisian was last seen serving as the OC for Alabama when they lost to Clemson in the 2017 National Championship Game when he took over for the departing Lane Kiffin. While I presume my feelings for Sark have not been hidden, I do think he will improve with his Red Zone play-calling — and the team adding wide receiver Calvin Ridley in the 1st Round of the draft gives him another weapon. The fact remains that the Falcons have lost to the Super Bowl Champions in the playoffs in each of the last two seasons. This is a good team on both sides of the football who are well-positioned t make another run. Their offense last year was destined to take a step back after a historical 2016-17 campaign where they averaged 33.8 PPG. The deeper metrics suggest that quarterback Matt Ryan may have actually had a better season last year — he was victimized by five tipped balls that resulted in interceptions which were the most any QB has endured since the 2010 season. The defense steadily improved last year before flexing their muscles in the playoffs by completing the Rams offensive attack in Los Angeles in their 26-13 win in the Wild Card round before liming the Eagles to just 15 points and only 334 yards of offense the next week. That playoff game is when Philly unveiled the Nick Foles’ offense that featured head coach Doug Pederson’s version of the Run-Pass-Option offense that Foles ran previously under Chip Kelly — and that offense would go on to destroy the Minnesota and New England defenses. Perhaps the most important thing that Quinn has done this offseason was address a subpar Special Teams unit. Quinn hired a new assistant Special Teams coach in Mayur Chaudhari while focused the third day of the draft on potential new special teamers — and the team added a Pro Bowl Special Teamer in free agent Justin Bethel from Arizona. Atlanta begins the season almost completely healthy with zero players on Injured Reserve (as opposed to teams like Indianapolis who have 20 players on IR). The Falcons usually start strong as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of September. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog getting 7 or fewer points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 13 opportunities to play on Thursday Night Football, the Falcons have covered the point spread 11 times. I am not down on this Philadelphia team — but I do think the prospects of them suffering a letdown after their celebratory offseason is very high. The team is missing two key pieces in this game with QB Carson Wentz still out with his torn ACL and wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey doubtful with a shoulder injury. The Eagles are confronting a challenging history where seven of the last seventeen Super Bowl winners failed to even make the playoffs the next season. Remember that this Philadelphia defense surrendered over 500 yards of passing yards to Tom Brady before lifting the Lombardi Trophy. The Eagles defense begins this season with questions with their weak-side linebacker and their nickel cornerback.

FINAL TAKE: Ring ceremonies are tough on the home teams as it is very hard to get their minds off of celebrating last year’s accomplishments while their opponents are completely focused on the task at hand. With the Falcons filled with revenge as well, they should be very motivated to find a small measure of redemption from their disappointment from last January. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 4th, we will be playing the New England Patriots (102) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (101) in the Super Bowl. Everything for Philadelphia (15-3) went right after falling behind in the NFC Championship Game after they fell behind by a 7-0 score as they then rattled off 38 unanswered points to upset the Vikings by a 38-7 score. Their momentum was triggered by a 50-yard interception return for a touchdown that tied the score at 7-7 and settled down Nick Foles and the Eagles offense while also igniting the crowd. We had Minnesota in that game — and, frankly, I am largely dismissing that result as the outcome of two outlier performances. The Vikings probably played their worst game of the season as they admitted in retrospect that they were emotionally spent after their dramatic last-second win over the Saints the previous week. Philadelphia also played one of their best games of the season — and I am expecting a big letdown for this team after such a dominant performance. As it is, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. But Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset win by at least three touchdowns as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games after an upset win by at least three touchdowns as a home dog. Remember, this Eagles team squeaked by Atlanta in their previous playoff game due in large measure to the ineffective Falcons Red Zone offense this season. Despite how good Foles’ playoff numbers are (that we will hear about for two weeks), the Eagles scored only 15 points against Atlanta despite being at home. Over their last three games, Philly is scoring just 17.7 PPG while averaging a mere 336.3 total YPG. In Foles’ first four games since taking over for Carson Wentz, he was Checkdown Charlie who completed just 2 of his 15 passes of more than 20 yards in the air for a miserable 13.8 Passer Rating. Foles exploded against Minnesota by completing 4 of 6 passes of 20 or more yards in the air for 172 yards and two TD passes — but I have to credit some of that to the Vikings’ simply being shellshocked during what turned out to be a 38-0 run. Foles looked awful in his final two regular season games. I expect the true Nick Foles is somewhere in the middle of these performances — and that is not in Tom Brady’s dimension. The Philadelphia defense also deserves mention as they have flexed their muscles by allowing just 33 combined points over their last four games while never allowing more than 10 points in any of those games. But all those games were at home. In their three previous games on the road (before this recent stretch), the Eagles allowed 88 combined points at Seattle, at the Los Angeles Rams and at the New York Giants (and no doubt the Patriots will study what Eli Manning did in shredding the Philly defense for 795 passing yards in two games this season). Philadelphia allowed 23.5 PPG on the road this season with six of their eight opponents scoring at least 23 points — their seasonal stats are skewed by allowing just 9 points against that Cowboys team without both Ezekiel Elliott and left tackle Tyron Smith. Playing on turf might also be an issue for this team after playing on field turf just three times this season. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the faster field turf. Throw-in their lack of recent playoff experience playing away from home and the lack of Super Bowl experience for most of the players and coaches on the staff and this is all new territory for this team. With the back of all the members of this organization knowing that they reached the Super Bowl without QB Carson Wentz, left tackle Jason Peters and linebacker Jordan Hicks, this team has the profile of a group that may turn out to just be happy to be in the Super Bowl.

New England (15-3) is clearly focused on winning a second straight Super Bowl while adding credentials to the mark in the history books. Remember that this team began the year with talk of them going through the season undefeated. While that did not happen, they have now won five straight games with their 24-20 win over Jacksonville in the AFC Championship Game — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning at least five straight games. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in ten of their last twelve games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Eagles were able to seize momentum against the Vikings not only with that defensive touchdown but also with a +3 net turnover margin. It is highly unlikely that the Patriots will be as giving as Minnesota was. New England has only turned the ball over three times in their last five games — and never more than one time during those five games. In fact, the Patriots only had 13 turnovers all season with just four of those games seeing them turn the ball over more than once and never more than twice in a game. New England has turned the ball over twice in only two games over their last twelve contests. This is a team that emphasizes protecting the football. They also have a significantly better Special Teams than the Eagles (at least according to Football Outsiders than ranks the Patriots as 2nd in the NFL while rating the Philly Special Teams unit 21st in the league). Additionally, let me state something that will appear obvious at first glance but perhaps a subtler reason to like New England in this game upon deeper reflection: the key to this game for the Eagles is to prevent the Patriots from getting off to a fast start. New England has played ten playoffs games over the last four postseasons where they are 9-1 straight-up with two Super Bowl trophies and a third pending. The Patriots have gone into halftime with a lead in five of those games — and they have gone on to win all five of those games by an average winning margin of +20.6 PPG with the closest final score being their 27-20 win over Kansas City in the Divisional round in January 2016 where they went on to lose at Denver. In those remaining five games where they either trailed or were tied at halftime, they still on to win four of those games. Three of those wins were by 4 points with last year’s Super Bowl being that 34-26 overtime win over the Falcons. So perhaps Eagles bettors will take comfort in their potential halftime lead given those numbers? Yeah, maybe — as if those three 4-point wins represents overwhelming evidence versus a point spread that looks destined to be in the -4.5 to -5.5 point range (as of this writing). But I took note of the fact that the Patriots have not gone to halftime without a lead in two straight playoff games since this latest Super Bowl run started in the 2014-15 season. After trailing Jacksonville last week at the half by a 14-10 score and the memory of their near-disastrous 21-3 halftime deficit to the Falcons in last year’s Super Bowl, I think that Bill Belichick will place a premium on getting off to a good start. And with their vast playoff experience and the fact that almost everything went right for the Eagles in the first-half last week when they went to the lockers with a 24-7 lead, why would one not expect New England to once again avoid trailing (or being tied) at halftime in two straight playoff games? Consistency defines Belichick and Tom Brady. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. And in their last 36 games as the favorite, the Patriots have then covered the point spread in 27 of these games. Perhaps the Eagles pull off their third straight upset victory? Perhaps the Patriots will win yet another Super Bowl by 4 points or less like they have done in four of their five Super Bowl Championships in the Belichick-Brady era? Perhaps … but it seems like almost everything has to go right for the Eagles to be in that position. New England has shown that even if everything does not go right for them, they still enter into coin-flip situations regarding if they will cover the point spread. And if the breaks go mostly their way, the Patriots cover the point spread easily. That is a great betting scenario when our worst case scenario still puts us in solid shape. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the New England Patriots (102) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (101) in the Super Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (313) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Philadelphia (14-3) has won four of their last five games with their 15-10 upset win at home against the Falcons last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. The Eagles got out their Dog Masks after the game to bask in their pulling the upset against Atlanta — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after an upset win at home as an underdog. Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up victory. The Eagles survived that game despite a -2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a game where they committed at least two more turnovers than their opponent. QB Nick Foles is the reason why this team is an underdog yet again in this game — but it is for good reason. He was solid against the Falcons after completing 23 of 30 passes for 246 yards with no interceptions. But he did not throw a touchdown pass - -and he rushed for -2 yards. Unfortunately for the Eagles, that was probably the most they can expect to get out of their backup QB. Remember that Foles struggled in his previous two starts against Dallas and Oakland — he completed just 23 of 49 passes for 202 yards with one TD pass and two interceptions in those two games combined. The Eagles did use the bye week to redesign their offense by having Foles run the read-option plays that he thrived executing in his one season running the Chip Kelly offense with the Eagles a few years ago. Who knows if the Falcons spent much time preparing for that blast from the past last week in practice — but it is a guarantee that the Mike Zimmer will make sure his team invests a significant amount of time preparing for read-options that other teams like the Cowboys and Panthers also deploy. So the element of surprise for Philadelphia running this offense is gone. Foles sees his effectiveness decline significantly when facing pressure — and he does not do a great job making quick decisions regarding his read progressions with wide receivers. Those are bad qualities to have when facing this ferocious Vikings’ defense. The Eagles are scoring just 11.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging only 256.3 total YPG. The rushing game has not been able to step up to take pressure off Foles. Philadelphia has not rushed for more than 96 yards in three straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to rush for more than 100 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs.

Minnesota (14-3) survived their game with New Orleans last week with their 29-24 win Saints salvaged by the 61-yard touchdown pass to Stefan Diggs as time expired. I think that miraculous victory will galvanize this team and give them confidence moving forward — and it certainly cements any lingering doubts about the ability of Case Keenum to lead this team to the promise land. As it is, the Vikings have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. And while Minnesota failed to cover the 5.5-point spread as the favorite, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Keenum completed 25 of 40 passes for 318 yards and a touchdown pass against the Saints — and the Vikings have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Minnesota defense did give up 358 yards to the Drew Brees-led New Orleans offense — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The encouraging aspect of the Vikings defense for this game is their run defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL by limiting team to just 83.6 rushing YPG. They have allowed only 74 rushing YPG over their last  three games after giving up just 30 and 80 rushing yards in each of their last two games. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. This stout Vikings defense is particularly good on 3rd Down where they were tops in the NFL in limiting opposing offenses in converting 3rd Down plays. In fact, Minnesota only allowed opposing offenses to convert 51 3rd Downs during the regular season. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games as the favorite. 25* NFC Playoff Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (313) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

BRADY WRIST-GATE UPDATE (Friday): The line has moved down to New England in the -7.5 point range with the news that Tom Brady injured his throwing wrist in practice. I released my AFC plays before this took place (taking the Patriots at -8.5). The Patriots’ Beat Writer says that the “chatter” is that Brady injured the area between his thumb forefinger. Brady can still throw but his snaps under center may be limited. Pain is the biggest issue (and he will likely be shot up before kickoff). That all said, in general, I don’t let rumors of injuries sway my handicapping on a game — so my recommendation is to just ride things out (like I am) if you you have already invested in this play. If you have yet to bet, I would jump all over any -7s you can find and be happy with -7.5. I am not letting these rumors diffuse from the strong fundamental play on the Patriots. For those needing a pick me up, I did hear that Brady has, in fact, thrown some passes in practice. It makes sense for the Pats to exhibit extreme caution with their veteran. Brady still benefited from just walking through the Thursday/Friday practices where specific offensive game plans and Red Zone plays were worked on — and many former NFL QBs argued that just walking through those plays to intellectualize them is all Brady really needs. Thanks, Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (312) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (311). Jacksonville (12-6) caught the Steelers looking way ahead to a possible rematch with their arch-nemesis New England last Sunday — and they raced out to a 21-0 lead in Pittsburgh before surviving by a 45-42 score as a 7-point underdog. I do expect this Jaguars team to suffer from an emotional letdown after that upset victory on the road. Not only has this team failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they enjoyed a 28-14 lead at halftime in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after holding at least a two-touchdown lead at halftime of their last game. Now this team stays on the road for the fourth time in their last five games which is a dangerous proposition for a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games on the road. Some are comparing this team to the Baltimore Ravens and New York Giants teams that have had success against  the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady teams of the Patriots in the playoffs — and Tom Coughlin is an executive with this team with plenty of influence. But those teams had two significant differences with this Jaguars team. First, Blake Bortles has yet to prove he is (even) in the Joe Flacco or Eli Manning class of quarterbacks. Admittedly, he did not turn the ball over last week while completing 14 of 26 passes for 214 yards and a touchdown pass — and this performance earned rave reviews from many NFL pundits who lower than standards when assessing him. Keep in mind that Bortles completed only three passes that traveled in the air more than 10 yards against the Steelers. And Jacksonville was able to never ask Bortles to do too much after racing out to that early lead — helped greatly by yet another defensive touchdown against that Pittsburgh team. Remember that it was just a short week ago when Bortles became just the 5th NFL passer to not generate at least 100 yards in the air in a playoff game since 2006 in that contest with the Bills where he visibly looked uncomfortable to throw the ball downfield. Second, this Jaguars defense is good — but this is not an elite unit like those Giants or Ravens groups. Yes, the Jaguars finished 2nd in the NFL in both points allowed (16.8 PPG) and total yardage (286.1 total YPG) — but check out their strength of schedule. Jacksonville was able to pad their numbers with NFL’s least productive division in terms of offense in the AFC South against Tennessee, Indianapolis and Houston (they were fortunate to avoid QB DeShaun Watson both times). Throw in additional games against Cleveland, Baltimore in Week Three (that London game when their offense was ravaged with injuries and still finding itself), Cincinnati in Week Seven (when their offensive line was imploding) and then Buffalo in the Wild Card game. Then throw in their first game with the Steelers where they won by a 30-9 score with the benefit of two defensive touchdowns and five interceptions — and they allowed 65 combined points for a measly 6.5 PPG scoring average in those top ten defensive performances. There are six games — representing 33% of their results this year that should raise eyebrows for the wrong reasons: last week against the Steelers where they allowed 42 points and 545 yards of offense; allowing 44 points and 364 yards of offense against a Jimmy Garoppolo-led 49ers offense on December 24th; allowing 27 points and 344 yards of offense led by Blaine Gabbert; allowing 27 points in a loss to the LA Rams on October 15th; allowing 23 points and a whopping 471 yards in a loss to the Jets on October 1st; allowing 37 points and 390 yards of offense to Titans back on September 17th. Of their eighteen games including their two in the playoffs, Jacksonville has played six playoff teams (with the Bills and Steelers’ second-meeting being in the actual playoffs). They are 3-3 overall in those games — but they are allowing 22.2 PPG and 341.7 total YPG in those six contests. Of course, the Jaguars had the benefit of facing the likely two worst teams to make the playoffs in Tennessee (twice) and Buffalo in the Wildcard round. Take away those three games to just assess how this Jaguars defense performed against Pittsburgh (twice) and the LA Rams and the results are simply unimpressive: 26.0 PPG and 388.3 total YPG allowed. Where this Jags’ defense struggles when compares to those Super Bowl winning Ravens and Giants teams that defeated the Brady/Belichick combo is in run defense. Jacksonville ranked 21st in the NFL during the regular season by allowing 116.2 rushing YPG. This is where the Patriots will attack. And while the Jaguars held the Steelers to just 83 rushing yards (on only 18 carries with Pittsburgh playing from a big deficit), they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game.

New England (14-3) will focus their defensive efforts on taking away the Jaguars’ best offensive weapon — and that means their rookie running back Leonard Fournette. In their 35-14 win over the Titans last week, the Patriots held Tennessee to just 65 rushing yards on only 16 rushing attempts. I made the same argument last week that the Pats would focus on stopping Derrick Henry and force QB Marcus Mariota to beat them. Marietta threw the ball 37 times for only 202 yards. Pundits that are still assessing the Patriots’ season-long statistics are missing the point. Ignore the fact that New England ranks 20th in run defense (114.8 rushing YPG). Over their last three games, the Patriots are holding teams to just 63 rushing YPG along with a 3.2 Yards-Per-Carry average. They have allowed only three rushing TDs since Week Five which is the second stingiest number in the league. In fact, since Week Five, the New England defense leads the NFL by holding opponents to just a 64.7% scoring success rate in the End Zone — and they also lead the NFL by allowing only 14.0 PPG since Week Five. And forget the Hot Take that the Patriots lack a pass rush as this year’s team ranks 6th in the NFL since Week Five with 34 sacks — and that was before they sacked Mariota last week eight times. New England has not allowed more than 17 points in each of their last six games at home. This team is rolling having won and covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a double-digit win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring at least 30 points int heir last game. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 5 playoff games at home, New England has covered the point spread all 5 times. 20* NFL Jacksonville-New England CBS-TV Special with the New England Patriots (312) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (307) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (308). New Orleans (12-5) proved their playoff experience mettle last week in a gritty 31-26 victory over Carolina as a 6.5-point favorite. QB Drew Brees led an offense that generated 410 yards against a very good Panthers defense despite having the football for only 26:11 minutes in that game. The Saints have not paid off betting tickets in two straight weeks — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. The conventional wisdom regarding this team stubbornly remains that they are not as good on the road as they are at home in the Superdome. While they were 4-4 away from home this season, they outscored their opponents by +7.7 PPG due to an improved defense that holds their home hosts to just 18.2 PPG along with only 326.9 total YPG. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road — and this includes covering the point spread in eight of their last nine road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of January. Additionally, they are a decisive 42-20-1 ATS in their last 63 games against teams with a winning record. New Orleans is a very dangerous underdog in this situation — as it is, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, this Saints team will be playing with revenge on their mind after their 29-19 loss to the Vikings in the opening week of the season. This New Orleans team has improved on both sides of the ball since then — led mainly by the continued improvement of the rookies they drafted on both offense and defense. The Saints are much more balanced on offense now than they were in those salad days of early September — and they have will have seven different starters on the field today than they did in that opening game). Rookie running back Alvin Kamara ran the ball only 8 times for 18 yards with Adrian Peterson still on the team then taking away 6 carries while being limited in passing situations as a receiver and blocker. This New Orleans team has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing with revenge. Additionally, keep in mind that this Saints team has defeated five teams that made the playoffs this season — as opposed to the Vikings who beat three teams that made the playoffs (with New Orleans being one of those teams back in Week One).

Minnesota (13-3) has won three straight games with their 23-10 victory over the Bears on December 31st. The Vikings held a 16-7 lead at halftime in that game which was the third straight week that they went to the locker rooms at halftime with a double-digit lead. Unfortunately for Mike Zimmer’s team, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after holding at least a touchdown lead in their last three games. QB Case Keenum has earned a lot of money for himself by playing great football this season — particularly since Week 10. But this will be his first playoff start in his career while Brees will be making his thirteenth playoff start which includes one where he led his team to a Super Bowl victory. Brees should have a big advantage late in this game — his moxie and experience should ensure that his team is in a position to win this game before the final seconds tick away. Lastly, because the Saints have averaged 11.2 and 7.0 Yards Per Passing Attempt in their last two games, that helps place the Vikings into a nasty “play-against” angle that has been 77% effective over the last five seasons. Minnesota held the Bears to just 4.6 Yards Per Passing Attempt in their last game — but home favorites who held their last opponent to 5.5 or less Yards Per Passing Attempt in their last game now facing a team that has generated at least a 7.0 YPP in each of their last two games have then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of the last 35 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (307) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (306) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (305). Pittsburgh (13-3) has experienced an interesting week with Le’Veon Bell publicly speculating about sitting out next season given a potential contract dispute while other players already discussing a possible matchup with the Patriots next week. But I think that any chance of this team taking the Jaguars lightly in practice this week was eliminated when they got crushed by this Jacksonville team back on October 8th by a 30-9 score despite being a 7-point favorite at home. Ben Roethlisberger certainly remembers that game as he threw 5 interceptions in that defeat — so he has much to make up for in this rematch. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home. Pittsburgh has a significant experience advantage in this contest. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games in the playoffs. The Steelers are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 Divisional Playoff games. On the plus side, Pittsburgh does look to get wide receiver Antonio Brown on the field — although it remains unclear how effective he can be with that calf.

Jacksonville (11-6) outlasted Buffalo last week in their 10-3 win over the Bills as an 8-point favorite. The Jaguars continued to be dominant on defense as they held the Bills to just 263 yards of offense while limiting them to only 3.65 Yards-Per-Play. Unfortunately for this Jacksonville team, such dominating defensive efforts has not translated into point spread success in the following week. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have not covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games not allowing their opponents to score more than 9 points in their last contest. Additionally, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 4.0 YPP in their last game. The offensive side of the football is the problem for this team. Any sense of optimism regarding the growth of QB Blake Bortles during the regular season has been dissipated after his lackluster effort last week. It is not just that he completed only 12 of 23 passes for 87 yards which made him only the 4th starting quarterback to fail to pass for least 100 yards in a playoff game since 2006, it is the evident lack of confidence he now has in throwing the football. He was wildly inaccurate in his misses — and the wind is only so much of an excuse. Too often against the Bills, Bortles abandoned passing the football and tried to move the ball with his legs. The Jaguars managed only 230 yards of offense. The Steelers will clearly stack the box to slow down Leonard Fournette and dare an insecure Bortles to beat them with his arm. That is an uncomfortable formula for this Jacksonville team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games as well as in 5 of their last 6 playoff games on the road. 25* AFC Playoff Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (306) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (304) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (303). New England (13-3) has been a favorite laying at least 13 points at home in the AFC Playoffs three times in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era — and all were in the Divisional Round of the Playoffs. They have covered the point spread twice — defeating the Texans by a 34-16 score as 16-point favorites last season as well as beating Denver by a 45-10 score as 14-point favorites back in 2012. Their lone point spread defeat in a similar Playoff situation was back on 2008 when they “only” beat Jacksonville by a 31-20 score when they were laying 13.5-points. Furthermore, the Patriots have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games when laying more than 10 points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a favorite laying 10.5 to 14 points. So while laying close to two touchdowns can be risky business in the NFL, backing Brady and Belchick in that situation has been profitable. New England has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games against AFC opponents. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Additionally, New England has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the Playoffs including their last four games at home in the Playoffs.

Tennessee (10-7) rallied from a 21-3 halftime deficit to secure eke out a 22-21 win at Kansas City as an 8.5-point underdog last Saturday. But this Titans team is 16-38-2 ATS in their last 56 games after a straight-up victory — and they are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of the last 6 after a win by 3 points or less. And in their last 6 games after an upset win as an underdog, the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in all 6 games. This is a very tough assignment for a team that has been outscored and outgained by their opponents this season. Additionally, not only has this Tennessee team failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of the last 11 road games as an underdog in the 10.5 to 14 point range. The Titans will want to run the ball — but those plans will have to be abandoned if and when they fall behind. QB Marcus Mariota leads the NFL with 13 interceptions when he is not facing pressure — so things will probably get ugly. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots (304) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (302) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (301). Philadelphia (13-3) is the first top seed in the Divisional Round of the playoffs to be listed as a home underdog in the history of the NFL — and this will certainly add more fuel to their fire in this game. The Eagles are getting the points in this game in large part because they are facing a surging Falcons team that reached the Super Bowl last year. But QB Nick Foles has struggled in his last two starts taking over under center after the season-ending injury to Carson Wentz. The Eagles struggled on national television on Christmas night in their 19-10 win over the Raiders — and the offense was listless in Week 17 of the regular season when they could not score a point against the Cowboys in their 6-0 loss at home to Dallas a 4-point underdog (with that underdog status predicated on the team benching starters for much of that game). Don’t be surprised if this Philadelphia team comes out and plays their best game of the season since the Wentz injury. The Eagles defense remains loaded as they showed even with the offense struggling. Philadelphia ranks 4th in the NFL by limiting their opponents to just 18.4 PPG — and they also rank 4th in the league by allowing just 306.5 total YPG. On their home field, the Eagles see those numbers drop of just 13.4 PPG along with 280.6 total YPG. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Foles does struggle when facing pressure — like most quarterbacks. But he has plenty of starting experience and has thrived as a starting quarterback when given time to pass. Look for the Eagles coaching staff to design a very good game plan to help put Foles in a position to win. This Falcons pass rush is solid but certainly not spectacular. They were 13th in the league by averaging 2.44 sacks per game. Over their last six games in this crucial stretch of the season, Atlanta has seen their sack total drop to just 2.0 sacks per game. Foles will get help from the Eagles rushing attack behind Jay Ajayi and LaGarrette Blount who helped the team finished 3rd in the NFL by averaging 132.2 rushing YPG. Philadelphia was 7-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +15.2 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.

Atlanta (11-6) is finally getting tons of respect from bettors and NFL pundits after being dogged for most of the season as overachievers after making the Super Bowl last year but blowing that epic 28-3 halftime lead to the Patriots. But after the Falcons dominated the Los Angeles Rams last week on the road with their 26-13 victory, all those that hitched the ride on the advanced analytics that fell in love with that Rams team have to quickly find a new target for their affections. We loved the Falcons last week in that contrarian situation — and this is now a dangerous letdown spot on the road playing on grass in weather that looks to be under 50 degrees. Atlanta has failed to over the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Philadelphia. This will be the fourth game over Atlanta’s last five contests where they will be away from home — and that type of strenuous schedule continues to fatigue and costly mistakes. The Falcons’ defense has been playing their best football this season over the last few weeks — they have only allowed 23 combined points over the last two weeks after clinching their spot in the playoffs in the last game of the regular season with their 22-10 win over Carolina. But Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 14 points in at least two straight games. The Falcons are also precarious road favorites — they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games as the favorite. They are only outscoring their opponents on the road by +0.5 PPG due to an offense that scores just 22.1 PPG away from home. Additionally, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 playoff games overall despite their Super Bowl run last year. 10* NFL Atlanta-Philadelphia NBC-TV Special with the Philadelphia Eagles (302) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (107) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (108). Carolina (11-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in their 22-10 loss in Atlanta as a 5-point underdog. The Panthers have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, while Carolina surrendered 311 passing yards to Matt Ryan in that game, they are then 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Panthers stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. Carolina has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of January. This Panthers team lost both their encounters with the Saints this season — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 37 games when playing with double-revenge. Carolina lost to this team by a 31-21 score back on December 3rd — and they have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 50 games when looking to avenge a loss where their opponent scored at least 28 points.

New Orleans (11-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 31-24 loss at Tampa Bay as a 6-point favorite. This team typically does not respond to setbacks like that as they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games as an upset loss as a road favorite. The Saints surrendered 455 yards in that game — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. This New Orleans defense showed marked improvement this season — but this unit has been plagued with injuries as of late with the loss of starting Sam linebacker A.J. Klein and their Jack of All Trades strong safety Kenny Vaccaro being the biggest blows. The Saints also endured a -2 net turnover margin against the Buccaneers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 43 home games after suffering a -2 or worse turnover margin in their last game. The Trilogy of this NFC South battle between two teams with a head coach and quarterback combination that has been in the Super Bowl shapes up to be a very close game — giving value to the underdog with the points who can pull off the upset. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Carolina Panthers (107) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (106) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (105). Jacksonville (10-6) had nothing at stake last week but still played their starters in what ended up being a 15-10 loss in Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog. That setback should eliminate any chance of this team being overconfident in this game despite being a favorite but more than a touchdown. As it is, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. And while the offense managed only 232 yards of offense, Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards of offense. The Jaguars managed only 83 rushing yards in that game with Leonard Fournette handily a relatively light load by rushing the ball only 19 times for 69 yards. The good news for Jacksonville is that Fournette should be fresh for this game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not rushing for more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Now the Jags return home where they outscore their opponents by +7.5 net PPG. The Jacksonville defense gets most of the attention — and they have been outstanding at home by holding their opponents to just 18.4 PPG along with only 283.7 total YPG. But the Jaguars offense has been strong at home where they are scoring 25.9 PPG while averaging 402.7 total YPG. Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of these games.

Buffalo (9-7) is a surprise entry into the postseason as they needed a late and improbable Cincinnati comeback victory over Baltimore to make into the playoffs after they defeated the Dolphins in Miami by a 22-16 score as a 2.5-point favorite. But their best offensive player LeSean McCoy suffered an ankle injury in that game which makes him a game time decision for this contest. Even if he plays, McCoy is not likely to be close to 100% — and that is very tough blow for this offense of which he accounts for 33% of its production. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They were outscored this season by -3.5 net PPG this season while also being outgained by -52.6 net YPG. They were just 3-5 on the road where those disparities were even worse. Buffalo was outscored by -7.0 PPG on the road this year while being outgained by -64.1 net YPG. Lastly, this will be the Bills third straight game away from home which may contribute to their fatigue. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year on the Jacksonville Jaguars (106) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (103) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (104). Atlanta (10-6) enters this Wildcard Playoff game playing as good of football as they have played all season after their 22-10 win at home over Carolina that clinched their spot in the playoffs. The Falcons have won three of their last four games to earn the opportunity to defend their NFC Championship. Playoff experience is a big advantage this team has when facing the Rams. This Atlanta team is underrated on the defensive side of the football. They held their opponents to just 19.7 PPG while limiting them to only 318.4 total YPG. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Atlanta did generate 371 yards against the Panthers defense — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And in their last 19 games against fellow NFC opponents, the Falcons have covered the point spread 13 times.

Los Angeles (11-5) rested their starters last week in their 34-13 loss to San Francisco. I am comfortable ignoring the results of that game. However, that was the Rams’ fourth loss at home this season where they are struggling to create a fervent local group of supporters. This has to be one of the weakest home field advantages that a playoff team has ever had when considering this franchise is relatively new again in Los Angeles. The Rams are just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games at home — and this includes have failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Looking deeper at the numbers, while the Rams outscored their opponents by +9.3 net PPG, they only outgained these opponents by +21.6 net YPG. The Los Angeles’ run defense ranks only 28th in the NFL by allowing 122.3 rushing YPG — and they allowing opposing rushers to average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. While the Falcons will be without guard Andy Levier, they will have both their running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman healthy for this game after both backs have been dealing with injuries in the closing weeks of the season. Additionally, I think there is a significant edge for the Falcons with their head coach Dan Quinn and their quarterback Matt Ryan as compared to the Rams’ Sean McVay and QB Jared Goff. While McVay is being hailed as an offensive guru, he has never coached a playoff game while coming from an organization in Washington that is not a perennial playoff team. For my tastes, his head is buried in his iPad too often and I worry this will result in game management issues. When it comes to Goff, I am not convinced he has progressed beyond being a product of the McVay system. In clutch situations, Goff has not delivered this season — and I have been watching closely with their home losses to Philadelphia and Seattle being two examples of this. Furthermore, while this Rams team has an outstanding Special Teams, they will really miss one of the best place kickers in the league with Greg Zuerlein going on Injured Reserve to a few weeks ago. All these intangibles provide context for a football team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of January — and this franchise has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. The Rams may win this game — but I expect a very close contest with this Falcons team that will be a tough “out” with their experience of playing in the Super Bowl last season. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Atlanta Falcons (103) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

SUBSCRIBERS, PLEASE NOTE: I have upgraded this Kansas City play to a 20* selection (from a 10* play initially). Thanks, Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (101). Kansas City (10-6) has won four straight gams after their 27-24 upset win at Denver as a 3-point underdog. That was a great result for the Chiefs as they won the game to maintain their momentum going into the playoffs but did so while resting their key starters. Look for KC to play very well in this game as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. The Chiefs have been very good at home where they are 6-2 this season with an average winning margin of +7.2 PPG. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on their home field.

Tennessee (9-7) clinched a spot in the playoffs with their 15-10 win over Jacksonville last Sunday. The Titans only managed 232 yards of offense in that game but benefited from two Blake Bortles interceptions and a +3 net turnover margin to win that game. Tennessee did limit the Jaguars to just 229 yards of offense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. This Titans team is being outscored by -1.3 net PPG while being outgained by -14.0 net YPG. On the road, it is even worse as Tennessee is being outscored by -6.4 net PPG while being outgained by -41.2 net YPG. The problem is Marcus Mariota and this Titans offense as they score just 17.5 PPG while averaging a mere 270.7 total YPG when on the road. Not surprisingly, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games on the road — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in ten of their last thirteen road games against teams with a winning record at home. 20* NFL Tennessee-Kansas City ESPN Special with the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (308) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (307). Atlanta (9-6) looks to bounce-back from their 23-13 loss in New Orleans last Sunday that snapped a two-game winning streak. The Falcons need a win here to clinch a Wild Card spot in the playoffs. Returning home will help after playing their last two games on the road. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing their last two games on the road. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And while they managed only 67 rushing yards last week, Atlanta has then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to rush for more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Falcons will also be playing with revenge on their minds from a 20-17 loss in Carolina back on November 5th — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when looking to avenge a loss by field goal or less in their last game against their opponent.

Carolina (11-4) will be watching the scoreboard during this game as confirmed by head coach Ron Rivera this week. It is very possible that Rivera will bench his starters if he sees that New Orleans looks destined to defeat the Buccaneers in a game that will be occurring at the same time. The Panthers are relegated to the 5-seed as the top Wild Card team if they cannot surpass the Saints to win the NFC South. The Saints are nearly a touchdown favorite on the road against a Tampa Bay team that has lost five straight games — and I do not like the Bucs enough to even take the points this afternoon. So I will not be surprised if the Panthers eventually throw in the towel in this game. As it is, Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against NFC South opponents. The Panthers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played in a dome. Carolina enters this game coming off their 22-19 win over the Buccaneers last week. The Panthers defense did show some vulnerabilities after allowing 392 yards of offense — and they are just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Carolina has been winning the turnover battle as of late — they have enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in three straight games. But the Panthers have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after having a +2 net turnover margin in two straight games. 25* NFL Sunday Afternoon Special Feature with the Atlanta Falcons (308) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) plus the points versus Tennessee Titans (312). Jacksonville (10-5) looks to rebound from their 44-33 upset loss at San Francisco last week despite being a 4-point favorite. The Jaguars have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after both a straight-up loss as well as after a point spread setback. Head coach Doug Marrone has indicated his team will play-to-win this game without resting their starters despite their slot in the playoffs locked-in. They need to get their defense in order after that rare bad game — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Jacksonville will be also playing with revenge on their minds after losing to the Titans back on September 17th by a 37-16 score. The Jaguars have covered then point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against fellow AFC South opponents. Jacksonville has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road. Additionally, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 games in the month of December, Jacksonville has covered the point spread 5 times.

Tennessee (8-7) has lost three straight games with their 27-23 loss to the Rams at home last week. The Titans are meeting point spread expectations despite this slide as they have covered the point spread in two straight games as well as four of their last five contest. This Tennessee team needs to win this game to clinch a spot in the playoffs — but this group has been laying eggs for weeks so I do not expect them to step it up now. Their pass defense has been shredded there last two weeks by allowing 680 passing yards along with five TD passes. They surrendered 286 passing yards last week to the Rams — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. They will face a hot Blake Bortles (!) who has thrown for almost 1300 passing yards over the last four weeks while tossing nine TD passes. Tennessee has not performed well relative to point expectations at home as they are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games at home against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 28 games in the month of December, the Titans are 7-19-2 ATS. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) plus the points versus Tennessee Titans (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (320) plus the points versus the Washington Redskins (319). New York (2-13) has lost five straight games after their 23-0 shutout loss in Arizona last week. Many bettors were sky-high on the Giants in that game after their very good showing the previous week in a 34-29 loss at home to the Eagles. While we had the Cardinals in that game, look for the Giants to play better this week as they look to redeem themselves from being shutout last week as a 3-point underdog. New York also looks to avenge a 20-10 loss in Washington back on November 23rd. The Giants have not defeated a divisional rival this season — so a good effort this afternoon goes a long way to get the terrible taste in their mouth from this lost season. Eli Manning will likely play every snap with the team likely to look to resign him under new general manager Dave Gettleman. New York is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a point spread win. The Giants have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as the underdog. And while they have failed to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to top 75 rushing yards in two straight games. And in their last 13 games played in Week 17 of the regular season, the Giants have covered the point spread 9 times.

Washington (7-8) has won two straight games with their 27-11 win over Denver last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. But the Skins have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. This franchise may be caught looking forward with the decision to retain head coach Jay Gruden with him and his staff being offered contract extensions. Their next decision regards what to do with QB Kirk Cousins. However, in the meantime, the Skins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against NFC East opponents. 10* NFL  Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (320) plus the points versus the Washington Redskins (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (132) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (131). Philadelphia (12-2) returns home after playing their last three games on the road that culminated in a 34-29 win in New York over the Giants last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. The Eagles have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up victory. Philadelphia has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Nick Foles seems capable of leading this team deep into the playoffs even after the injury to Carson Wentz. Foles completed 24 of 38 passes for 237 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in the win over the Giants. The Eagles did surrender 504 yards to the Giants last week - but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 8 games played on Monday Night Football, Philadelphia has covered the point spread 6 times.

Oakland (6-8) has lost two straight games with their 20-17 loss to Dallas last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. The Raiders are without left tackle Donald Penn for the rest of the season which will further derail a struggling offense that is scoring only 17.0 PPG away from home this season. Oakland is just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. The Raiders are also 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, this Oakland team is just 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 games in the month of December. 10* NFL Christmas Night Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Eagles (132) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (130) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (129). Pittsburgh (11-3) has spent the week not only recovering from their loss to the Patriots and all that it means in terms of home-field advantage in the AFC Playoffs but they are also dealing with the fallout of Ben Roethlisberger throwing an interception on the goal line that could have won (and covered the point spread) in that game. We are on a nice run right now — but things have been helped by seeing close games like that turn our way as we had a big play on the Patriots. Critics who think Roethlisberger should have just spiked the ball should have their Pundit Cards revoked permanently. Ask any New England bettor — or any Patriots player or coach — and they will tell you that they were praying for that game to go into overtime. The opportunity to win that game on one play — on the darn goal line — must be seized. Yes, bad things can happen when one takes risks — and we will always remember that play or the Russell Wilson interception in the Super Bowl. But the fact remains that even a high-risk pass into the middle of the field rarely results in an interception. Sure, in hindsight, Big Ben should not have thrown into double-coverage. But it is also a fact that these same pundits (along with the entire Football Analytics community) would be applauding Roethlisberger for pulling a Dan Marino fake-spike touchdown pass (just like they always call for on Twitter!) if the play would have worked. Rant aside, I think the Steelers’ suffered what we call a Deflating Loss that will negatively impact them now on the road as a big favorite. As it is, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. They are also a mere 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Roethlisberger did have a good game against the Pats by completing 22 of 30 passes for 281 yards — but the Steelers have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games passing for at least 250 passing yards. Big Ben not having his superstar wide receiver Antonio Brown certainly does not help matters. Brown has simply been spectacular this year. Pittsburgh surrendered 283 passing yards to the Patriots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of December. Pittsburgh has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents. And in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record, the Steelers are just 1-3-1 ATS.

Houston (4-10) looks to bounce-back from a humiliating 45-7 loss at Jacksonville last week. The Texans could do almost nothing on offense as they managed only 186 yards against the stout Jaguars defense. But look for head coach Bill O’Brien to get his offense working better back at home. O’Brien seems to always be ravaged with injuries — and he is dealing with his third-string QB in T.J. Yates. But there is a reason that Houston is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. The Texans are also 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And while they have not scored more than 16 points in four straight games, O’Brien’s team has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after failing to score more than 17 points in at least two straight games. Defense has been a problem for this Houston team as well with injuries playing a big role — they are allowing 408.0 total YPG over their last three games. But Houston has covered the point spread in a decisive 19 of the last 24 games after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. 10* NFL Pittsburgh-Houston NBC-TV Special with the Houston Texans (130) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (126) minus the points versus the New York Giants (125). Arizona (6-8) has lost four of their last six games after their 20-15 loss at Washington last week as a 4-point underdog. The Cardinals have bounced-back to win 27 of their last 40 games at home after a loss by 6 points or less. Arizona has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread setback. The team is turning back to QB Drew Stanton who is one of the better backups in the league. While the team has dealt with Blaine Gabbert under center, the Cardinals defense has been playing quite well. Since Week 10 of the regular season, Arizona is tops in NFL by allowing just 264.7 total YPG. During that span, the Cardinals are allowing just 183.7 passing YPG which is also best in the league — and they are third in the NFL by giving up only 81.0 rushing YPG.

New York (2-12) enters this game coming off their 34-29 win loss to the Eagles despite generating their highest scoring and yardage totals on offense since 2015. We had the Giants in that game as 7.5-point underdogs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. New York has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And while they gained 504 yards against the Eagles, the Giants have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 305 yards in their last game. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents, the Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games. 10* NFL Giants-Cardinals Special with the Arizona Cardinals (126) minus the points versus the New York Giants (125). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (127) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (128). Seattle (8-6) might have experienced their most humiliating loss in the Pete Carroll era last week in their 42-7 loss to the Rams. The season began with locker room angst between the defensive and offensive units and while those issues appeared to have been put aside during the season, injuries have decimated their roster. Now that they are out of the playoff hunt, this Seahawks team is playing for pride. But I do expect that to be enough motivation for this team as they look to make amends to each other for last week’s terrible effort. Seattle is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. And while they have played two straight games Over the Total, they have then covered  the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after playing two straight games Over the Total. The team is getting back a healthier Bobby Wagner on defense who did practice this week after trying to take the field last Sunday. His presence on defense will be a big help. The Seahawks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. And in their last 29 games in the month of December, Seattle is 20-8-1 ATS.

Dallas (8-6) has won three games in a row with their 21-17 win in Oakland against the Raiders as a 3-point favorite. The Cowboys now get Ezekiel Elliott back after he completed his six-game suspension — and it looks like Dallas plans on giving him a ton of touches this afternoon. But the straw that stirs the drink is their left tackle Tyron Smith who is listed as questionable with the knee injury that has been slowing him down for the second-half of the regular season. Even if Elliott has been keeping in shape by running the beaches of the tropical locale from which he spent most of his suspension time, he might not have the endurance yet to be at 100% as he normally would be at midseason. As it is, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. The Cowboys have not enjoyed much of a home field advantage either in AT&T Stadium where they are just 3-4 this season while being outgained by -18.0 net YPG and being outscored by -1.1 PPG. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. 25* NFC Underdog of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (127) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (227) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (228) in the Hawai’i Bowl. Houston (7-4) travels to Hawai’i after their 24-14 win over Navy as a 6.5-point favorite back on November 24th. The Cougars have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing no more than 20 points in their last game. The Cougars sport a strong defense that ranked 40th in the FBS by allowing just 23.0 PPG. They ave played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And Houston has played 5 straight games Under the Total against non-conference opponents.

Fresno State (9-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game in a 17-14 loss at Boise State as a 10-point underdog. The Bulldogs have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Fresno State has also played 7 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Additionally, the Bulldogs have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 games in the month of December, the Under is 5-0-1. This Fresno State team also has a very good defense as they are holding their opponents to just 17.2 PPG along with 319.0 total YPG which is 9th and 16th best in the FBS respectively. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* CFB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (227) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (228). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (110) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (109). Los Angeles (10-4) was dominant last week in their triumphant 42-7 win in Seattle over the Seahawks last week that avenged an earlier loss to their NFC West rivals. But I look for a letdown for this team as they travel east for this non-conference clash in a game where their body clocks will feel like it is 11 AM at kickoff. I also think this is a challenging test for the Rams to face this Titans team whose formula for success is winning the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football by outmuscling their opponents. Furthermore, Tennessee endured a tough injury this week when placekicker Greg Zuerlein was placed on Injured Reserve with a back injury. Zeurlein played an important role in the Rams having one of the top two Special Teams units in the NFL — and they will be experiencing a big drop-off when going to the inexperienced Sam Thickett whose best experience is kicking in college for Penn State. As it is, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. The Rams held the Seahawks to just 149 yards of offense — but they are then 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games are allowing no more than 250 yards in their last game. Furthermore, while LA gained 352 yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And in their last 7 games in the month of December, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

Tennessee (8-6) looks to bounce-back from their 25-23 loss at San Francisco last week as a 2.5-point underdog. The Titans have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Now after playing two straight games on the road — as well as four of their last five away from home — Tennessee returns home where they are 5-1 this season. The offense improves greatly at home where the Titans average 26.0 PPG while averaging 376.7 total YPG. They also crank up their ground game as they average 151 rushing YPG along with 5.3 Yards-Per-Carry — and they will be facing a Titans’ team that allows opposing running backs to average 4.9 YPC when they are on the road. Tennessee is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games on their home field. Together, these team trends produce our specific 43-15-2 ATS combined angle for this situation. 25* NFL Sunday Afternoon Special Feature with the Tennessee Titans (110) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (116) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (115). New Orleans (10-4) will be looking to avenge a 20-17 loss in Atlanta back on December 7th in this game. The Saints rebounded from that loss last Sunday with their 31-19 win over the Jets as a big 17.5-point favorite. New Orleans have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. The Saints generated 412 yards of offense in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now New Orleans gets the Falcons back at home in the Superdome where they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. In his last four games at home against Atlanta, Drew Brees has thrown for 1358 passing yards along with seven TD passes — so don’t be surprised if the veteran QB has a big day this afternoon. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow NFC South opponents.

Atlanta (9-5) has won five of their last six games with their 24-21 win in Tampa Bay. The Falcons secondary showed vulnerabilities in that game by allowing the Buccaneers to pass for 289 yards in that contest — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Atlanta also limited Tampa Bay to only 84 rushing yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing no more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Moving forward, the biggest difference between this year’s Falcons and the one that made the run to the Super Bowl might very well be dropped passes. Led by Julio Jones’ seven drops, Atlanta leads the NFL in dropped passes. Last year, the Falcons led the NFL with only sixteen dropped passed combined amongst their wide receivers, tight ends and running backs. Perhaps the Regression Gods return to this team was inevitable when considering that they led the NFL the prior year with 32 drops. Those drops are most likely cost the team first downs. Lastly, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. 25* NFC South Game of the Year is on the New Orleans Saints (116) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (115). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (104) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (103). Green Bay (7-7) were eliminated from the playoffs last week after their 34-21 loss in Carolina. Now with Aaron Rodgers placed on Injured Reserve with this being a lost season, it would be easy to dismiss the Packers in this contest. But this proud Green Bay franchise has the opportunity to play spoiler against their rivals in the Vikings while avenging a 23-10 loss in Minnesota on October 15th. And this will be the final home game at Lambeau Field this year. The Packers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in the month of December. Green Bay has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 opportunities to avenge a loss to their opponents. And while the Packers have played their last two games on the road, they return home where they have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 62 games after playing their last two on the road. QB Brent Hundley has played significantly better before giving way to Rodgers return from Injured Reserve last week. Green Bay was 2-1 over Hundley’s last three starts with two of those games being on the road. The lone loss was a narrow 31-28 loss in Pittsburgh over the Steelers. In his last three starts, Hundley completed 65 of 94 passes for an impressive 69.1% completion percentage while tossing 6 touchdown passes to just one interception. He passed for 594 yards in those three games with a solid and improving 6.32 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt average. Huntley also added 103 rushing yards over those last three games on 15 carries. He has helped the Packers play their last four games Over the Total — and they have then covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after playing at least three straight games Over the Total. Green Bay allowed 387 yards last week in Carolina — and they have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 57 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest.

Minnesota (11-3) has won nine of their last ten games with their 34-7 win over Cincinnati last week. While this team is playing very well with Case Keenum ranked as the top statistical passer in the NFL since Week 10, asking them to cover the point spread of more than a touchdown on the road is simply too much to ask. The Vikings defense has been a bit more penetrable when on the road where they are allowing 21.7 PPG along with 312.6 total YPG as compared to their 17.3 PPG and 283.9 total YPG for the season. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 44 of their last 71 games on the road as the favorite. The Vikings have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. Furthermore, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of the last 10 games when playing on grass. Lastly, the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 trips to Green Bay to play the Packers at Lambeau Field. 25* NFC North Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (104) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (101) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (102). Baltimore (8-6) has won four of their last five games after their 27-10 win in Cleveland last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite. Now after covering the point spread in their last three games while playing their last two games on the road, the Ravens return home. It may be difficult for this Baltimore team to not be flat in this contest when considering that they are laying nearly two touchdowns. As it is, the Ravens are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore is also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Additionally, Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. And in their last 6 games after playing their last two contests on the road, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games.

Indianapolis (3-11) has lost five straight games after their 25-13 loss to Denver as a 3-point underdog back on December 14th. Look for the Colts to play well with some extra days to prepare as they look to redeem themselves from that bad loss on national television. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, while Indy failed to generate more 228 yards against the Denver defense, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last contest. And in their last 29 games as a double-digit underdog, the Colts have covered the point spread in 18 of these contests. Hold your nose if you need to — but the sharp play here is to take all the points. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Baltimore NFL Network Special with the Indianapolis Colts (101) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (332) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (331). Atlanta (8-5) enters this game after their triumphant 20-17 win over New Orleans two Thursdays ago. If you think this game looks eerily similar to last Monday night’s New England at Miami game, then you are not alone. The Falcons easily took care of the Buccaneers in the first meeting between these two teams back on November 26th in a 34-20 score in Atlanta. And with the rematch with the Saints in the Big Easy on deck this weekend, this Falcons team may be caught looking ahead. As it is, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games after a home win against a divisional rival. And while Atlanta has won four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning at least three of their last four games. The Falcons held New Orleans to just 50 rushing yards last night — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Atlanta did suffer a -2 net turnover margin to the Saints in that victory — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after having a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Moving forward, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 32 games as the favorite.

Tampa Bay (4-9) has lost three straight games with their 24-21 loss to Detroit last week. The Buccaneers have not only failed to cover in those three games but they have only paid off bettors in two of their last seven contests. But Tampa Bay has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after losing at least three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. This Buccaneers team entered the season with high expectations. While this year has been ruined, they can still play the role of spoiler against a divisional rival which should motivate them to play well without the burden of high expectations. Tampa Bay did allow 434 yards to the Lions in that loss — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Buccaneers did hold Detroit to just 53 rushing yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing at least 75 rushing yards in their last  game. Expect Tampa Bay to be inspired by the Miami Dolphins who pulled the upset last Monday night at home as the underdog against another divisional rival that played in last February’s Super Bowl. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (332) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.