At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (202) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (201). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-8) returns to the field after their bye week after a 24-10 loss in London to the Los Angeles Rams as a 12-point underdog. Baltimore (6-2) has won four games in a row after their triumphant 37-20 win over New England last Sunday night as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: Nothing like taking a winless NFL team after a dreary Saturday in College Football! I would hate myself more for not endorsing this play (and the Bengals cover) than I will if the Ravens blow out this team today. If we are not willing to invest in this fantastic “play-against” situation, then it is time to get out of the business. Baltimore’s value with the betting public will never be higher after they pulled off two straight upset victories with their win over the Patriots preceded by a 30-16 upset win at Seattle as a 3-point underdog two weeks ago. But the personality of this team suggests they will suffer an emotional letdown. Not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after winning two straight games by at least 14 points. The Ravens have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. And while the Baltimore defense surrendered 268 passing yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. Baltimore has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games against AFC North opponents. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against fellow AFC North foes. They have had the benefit of their bye week to prepare against the Ravens’ ground game behind Lamar Jackson. They also should have a specific offensive game plan for rookie quarterback Ryan Finley who takes over for Andy Dalton. I like Finley from his NC State days — and he played well in the preseason. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Cincinnati has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing at least eight straight games. They do return home where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And while they allowed 372 passing yards to the Rams in London, the Bengals have then covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games after allowing at least 300 passing yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch from the Ravens’ 23-17 win last month on October 13th played in Baltimore. But this Baltimore team has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games played in Cincinnati. Hold your nose if it helps (I will …) but this is too many points to pass up for a home dog in a divisional matchup playing with revenge and off their bye week. 10* NFL Big Dog Surprise with the Cincinnati Bengals (202) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (201). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (266) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (265). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-5) has lost four games in a row with their 22-14 loss at Philadelphia as a 5-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (3-4-1) has lost four of their last five games after their 31-24 loss in Oakland last week as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Taking Chicago was on my short list of sides to still consider this morning after taking into account the final injury reports — and, lo and behold, Matthew Stafford will not playing in this game with doctors ruling him out because of some broken vertebrae in his back. That makes a potentially good play into a great situation. Stafford has been quietly having an MVP level season for this Lions team that ranks 5th in the NFL in total offense. Jeff Driskel will be the quarterback under center for this team despite him not taking part in training camp as he signed with the team during the regular season. Driskel played in nine games with five starts last year for the Bengals where he completed 59.7% of his passes but averaged only 5.7 Yards-Per-Attempt. It is not encouraging that he was cut by Cincinnati after their second preseason game this season after completing just 13 of 27 passes for 136 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. I also assign zero credibility to the fact that he was picked up by the Lions as their management has been disorganized with many/most of their personnel decisions (not involving former Patriots players) — Detroit has rolled through at least three backup quarterbacks this season with Tom Savage, David Fales, and Josh Johnson (offhand) who have all been cut since. Perhaps Driskel is an upgrade over that list of names (perhaps) but he did not have the benefit of training camp to learn the Darrell Bevell offense. Quite simply, Plan A for this team has been Stafford at quarterback — and Plan B is to not worry about Plan B. For a fragile team about ready to form a mutiny against head coach Matt Patricia, this is not a good turn of events. As it is, Stafford was holding things together for this team that has collapsed on the defensive side of the football. The Lions are allowing 27.1 PPG (27th in the NFL) while ranking second-to-last by giving up 424.1 total YPG. They have allowed 33.0 PPG over their last three contests along with 441.0 total YPG — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. Their beleaguered secondary is also 31st in the NFL by surrendering 288.4 passing YPG after giving up at least 277 passing yards in five straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 275 passing yards in three straight contests. Additionally, Detroit is just 13-27-2 ATS in their last 42 road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November. The Lions are also 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow NFC North opponents. This defense may be just what the doctor ordered to get quarterback Mitchell Trubisky back on track. Chicago managed just 164 yards of offense last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after failing to generate at least 200 total yards in their last game. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score at least 15 points in their last game. And while Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after not covering point spread expectations in three straight contests. Returning home will help this team as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And look for the Bears’ defense to help by forcing Driskel and this Lions’ offense (without their injured running back Kerryon Johnson) to force mistakes and turnovers in this one. Chicago has lost the turnover battle in three straight games — but not only have they covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after suffering a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games but they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after losing the turnover war in three straight contests. This is also a team that has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams from the NFC North — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Bears after getting swept last season — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games at Soldier Field playing the Bears. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (266) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (108) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Chargers (107). THE SITUATION: Oakland (4-4) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 31-24 win over Detroit as a 2.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (4-5) has won two straight games after their 26-11 upset win at home over Green Bay on Sunday as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): The Chargers have pulled off two straight upset victories as they proceeded their win over the Packers with a 17-16 upset win at Chicago where they were getting a field goal. But this team is likely to suffer an emotional letdown now playing on a short week. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after an upset victory in their last game as a home underdog. The Chargers are also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Chargers are playing better defense as of late as they have surrendered only 27 combined points in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. Furthermore, while Los Angeles held Green Bay to only 184 yards of offense last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Chargers are just 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games against teams from the AFC. Oakland will be playing in just their fourth true home game of the season after a five-game stretch which were all played away from Oakland Coliseum were two road games sandwiched their game in London where they were the technical home team. The Raiders have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in their last 3 home games as the underdog getting up to 3 points. Furthermore, Oakland has allowed at least 388 yards in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 contests after allowing at least 375 yards in two straight games. Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn recently replaced his offensive coordinator, Ken Whisenhunt, for a faltering offense — and while tapping Shane Steichen as the new OC, he called on the offense to commit to running the ball more. This focus on running the football will play into the Raiders’ strength on defense as they rank 7th in the NFL by allowing just 92.5 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have won the last four meetings between these two teams after sweeping this AFC West series in the last two seasons. But with this being an emotional night in Oakland’s Coliseum in the last meeting between these two teams in this venue, expect a close game where the Raiders will have the opportunity to pull the upset. 3* NFL LA Chargers-Oakland Fox-TV Special with the Oakland Raiders (108) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Chargers (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (476) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (475). THE SITUATION: New York (2-6) has lost four straight games after their 31-26 loss in Detroit to the Lions as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Dallas (4-3) snapped their three-game losing streak back on October 20th with their 37-10 win over Philadelphia for Sunday Night Football as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys may be due for an emotional letdown after their long layoff from their big success on national television. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after a blowout win at home by at least three touchdowns. The Cowboys raced out to a 27-7 halftime lead over the Eagles in that game but they might not be a good sign for them in this game considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. The Dallas offense slows down when away from AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys are scoring 27.1 PPG along with 437.9 total YPG this season — but those numbers drop to just 21.0 PPG along with 376.0 total YPG on the road this year. Dallas is also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after holding their last opponent to 14 points or less. The Cowboys are 5th in the NFL by giving up only 17.7 PPG — but they have allowed their last three opponents to score 22.7 PPG which makes getting another touchdown or so with the point spread very attractive. This defense will also be without one of their best players in linebacker Leighton Vander Bosch who is likely out with a neck injury for this game. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on Monday Night Football. New York should play well in this divisional rematch as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after losing at least four straight games. The Giants’ loss in Detroit last week came on the heels of a 27-21 loss at home to Arizona the previous week. The Giants went into halftime against the Lions trailing by a 17-13 score after trailing to the Cardinals after the first 30 minutes by a 17-14 margin. New York has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 25 points in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 20 games after allowing at least 17 points in the first half of their last two contests. The Giants did generate 370 yards against the Detroit defense — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. This offense is getting healthy once again with Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram back on the field after missing time with injuries. And while wide receiver Sterling Shepard will likely not play in this game as he re-entered the concussion protocol, they have an emerging target for rookie Daniel Jones in fellow rookie wideout Darius Slayton who starred at Auburn. The New York run defense was then fortified at the trade deadline with the Giants acquiring the 300-LB defensive lineman Leonard Williams from the Jets. New York has played much better on defense when playing at home this season — their four visitors are scoring just 17.2 PPG while averaging only 308.2 total YPG. The arrow is pointing up for this Giants team that is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 4 games in November.

FINAL: This is a rematch of the Cowboys’ 35-17 victory at home over the Giants back on September 8th — and New York has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road to their opponent. 10* NFL Dallas-NY Giants ESPN Special with the New York Giants (476) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (474) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (473). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (5-2) returns off their bye week after winning their third straight game in a row with their 30-16 victory at Seattle as a 3-point underdog. New England (8-0) remained undefeated last week with their 27-13 win over Cleveland as a 10-point favorite. Baltimore (5-2) returns off their bye week after winning their third straight game in a row with their 30-16 victory at Seattle as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach John Harbaugh will have his team very prepared this showdown — Baltimore has won nine of their last eleven games straight-up when playing after their bye week and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games when playing with two weeks off between games. The Ravens have only covered the point spread once in their last six games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Quarterback Lamar Jackson completed 9 of 20 passes in that win over the Seahawks for 143 yards — but Baltimore is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games after failing to pass for at least 150 yards in their last game. Jackson does get his best deep threat back for this game in Marquise “Hollywood” Brown who has been out for weeks with his ankle injury. Jackson is also a big threat with his legs as he rushed for 576 yards this season while averaging 6.94 Yards-Per-Carry. Baltimore is 2nd in the NFL by averaging 30.6 PPG — and they also rank 2nd in the league by averaging 434.9 total YPG. The Ravens defense should also have success in stuffing the Patriots rushing attack and force Tom Brady to beat them with his depleted wide receiving corps — they rank 3rd in the league by allowing only 84.3 rushing YPG. Over their last three games, Baltimore has held its opponents to just 18.7 PPG along with only 288.7 total YPG. New England has thrived off a very easy schedule to start the season. Remember, the best team they have faced has been a Bills team they played on the road where they won by just a 16-10 score. the Patriots are averaging just 342.5 total YPG over their last three games which is -27.4 net YPG below their season average that ranks just 16th in the league. New England has a banged-up offensive line — and they lack reliable deep threats from their wide receivers from a group that has moved on from both Antonio Brown and now Josh Gordon. Remember that the Patriots have scored four defensive touchdowns while adding another two special teams touchdowns this season. Take away those 42 points (with the extra point) — and the Patriots scoring average of 31.2 PPG drops to 25.95 PPG. They face a Ravens team that has not committed a turnover in four of their seven games — so they are unlikely to be gifted the ball the way the Browns, Jets, and Giants have over the last three weeks where New England forced 13 combined turnovers. The Patriots have won the turnover battle in five straight games — and they have enjoyed a +5 and +3 net turnover margin in their last two games. But New England has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after having a +1 or better turnover margin in at least five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying a +3 or better turnover margin in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The 27-13 final score for the Patriots last week looks like it was an easy victory over the Browns — but they only outgained Cleveland by a 318 to 310 mark in yardage. Their +3 net turnover margin in that game helped them overcome losing the battle of the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football — and this is an area of strength for the Ravens. Expect a close game with Baltimore in a position to pull the upset. 10* NFL New England-Baltimore NBC-TV Special with the Baltimore Ravens (474) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (472) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (471). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-5) looks to build off their 17-16 upset win in Chicago last week as a 3.5-point underdog. Green Bay (7-1) has won four straight games with their 31-24 win in Kansas City as a 5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. Green Bay is also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. This Packers team looks to have plenty of fans in Los Angeles for this game — but it would be a mistake to say they will have the “advantage” since much of the inherent edge for home teams comes from the familiarity of playing on that field in that specific stadium at least nine times a season (including preseason games). Green Bay is 7-1 this season being outgained by their opponents overall in yardage. They are surviving because their +8 net turnover margin — but the Turnover Gods are fickle. The Packers have enjoyed three net close victories by one scoring possession. And while they are 3-0 away from Lambeau Field this season, they are being outgained by -77.4 net YPG due to their offense only averaging 307.3 total YPG. Los Angeles enters November where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games. They were outgained by 126 rushing yards last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after being outrushed by at least 100 yards in their last game. Getting a healthy Russell Okung back into the mix full time should help get their ground game going. And this is still Phillip Rivers under center — and he has been the quarterback for the vast majority of the 61 of the team’s last 109 games they have covered as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. While the Chargers are 3-5 this season, they are outgaining their opponents by +10.5 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay is just 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games in November. They are laying too many points to pass up with a veteran team that made the playoffs last year. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (472) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (458) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (457). THE SITUATION: Carolina (4-3) saw their four-game winning streak crumble last Sunday in an embarrassing 51-13 loss at San Francisco as a 4-point underdog. Tennessee (4-4) has won two straight games with their 27-23 win over Tampa Bay as a 2-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINSU THE POINTS: Carolina should respond with a strong effort after this big loss. Tight end Greg Olsen addressed the team about the importance of responding with a strong effort for this game with the memory of this team going on a seven game losing streak after getting humiliated in Pittsburgh last season by a 52-21 score. The Panthers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a loss on the road by at least 21 points. Carolina went into halftime trailing by a 27-3 score as they were never competitive in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after trailing by at least 14 points at halftime of their last game and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after trailing by at least 21 points at halftime of their last contest. Kyle Allen had his worst game as a starter for this team as he threw three interceptions while completing just 19 of 37 passes for 158 yards. The Niners were the first team to pick off an Allen pass this season — the former high school phenom (before a disjointed college career marred by tough internal competitions with Kyler Murray and head coaches jumping ship on him to bigger programs) is still completing 62.3% of his passes this season with 7 touchdowns and just those three interceptions. A healthy Murray under center is in a much better position to execute the schemes of offensive coordinator Norv Turner than a gimpy Cam Newton has been able to in the past. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 14 points. Additionally, Carolina has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. This remains a ream that has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 home games after winning at least four of their last five games. Tennessee comes off a perfect 2-0 home stand with their win against the Buccaneers preceded by a 23-20 win over the Rams. But the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning their last two games by 6 points or less. This inconsistent Tennessee team is also 14-29-1 ATS in their last 44 games after a point spread win. The Titans did show some cracks with their defense as they allowed 389 yards to the Bucs — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The bigger concerns for this team is on offense with a group that ranks 27th in the NFL by averaging just 299.0 total YPG. Ryan Tannehill has replaced Marcus Mariota under center — but this team is still scoring just 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 284.3 total YPG over that span. With defenses being able to stuff the box to stop the Titans running backs, Tennessee has not managed more than 97 rushing yards in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in three straight games. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans are just 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games in November. Carolina has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against non-conference opponents. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Carolina Panthers (458) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (457). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (453) minus then points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (454). THE SITUATION: Houston (5-3) has won three of their last four games after their 27-24 win over Oakland last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (4-4) has won two straight contests with their 29-15 win over the NY Jets last Sunday as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINT(S): Houston has covered the point spread in 6 straight games away from home after a straight-up win. The Texans are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Houston has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after they won at least three of their last four games. This team has lost their star linebacker, J.J. Watt, to a season-ending pectoral injury. But this Texans team is winning because of their offense that ranks 4th in the NFL by averaging 395.0 total YPG. Head coach and acting general manager Bill O’Brien was chastised by many for the trade with the Dolphins that brought over Laremy Tunsil but he has played like a top-ten left tackle in the league while stabilizing what has too often been a leaky offensive line for star quarterback Deshaun Watson. Houston has averaged 417 YPG over their last three games — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after averaging at least 375 YPG over their last three contests. The Texans have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November. Jacksonville followed up their 27-17 win at Cincinnati with their 14-point win against the Jets. But not only have the Jaguars failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after a double-digit win but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning their last two games by at least 10 points. Jacksonville was favored in both those games as well but they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after covering the point spread in two straight games where they won straight-up as the favorite. Gardner Minshew completed 22 of 34 passes for 279 yards against the Jets defense but the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Jacksonville has generated 389 and 460 yards in their last two games. However, they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games after gaining at least 375 yards in two straight games. The concern with this Jags’ offense is their productivity in the Red Zone as they are scoring touchdowns in just 35.7% of their trips inside the 40-yard line which is 30th in the NFL. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has won sixteen of their last twenty-one games going back to last season — and Watson is 15-5 in his career when starting after September. This is a rematch of the Texans’ 13-12 victory at home over the Jaguars back on September 15th. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread 9 of their last 14 games when attempting to avenge a loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread 10 of their last 14 games against fellow AFC South opponents. 10* NFL Houston-Jacksonville London Calling Special with the Minshew should have success in this Texans defense missing Watt that was already allowing 276.1 passing YPG which is 28th in the NFL. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (302) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (301). THE SITUATION: Arizona (3-4-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 31-9 win at New Orleans as an 11-point underdog. San Francisco (7-0) remained undefeated this year with their 51-13 blowout win over Carolina as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: The final score is not indicative of how close Arizona’s game was last week as they entered the fourth quarter trailing by just a 17-9 score before the Saints pulled away by scoring two final touchdowns. The Cardinals have bounced back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least 21 points. Arizona only had the ball for 22:01 minutes in that game which provides some context as to why they only generated 237 yards of offense. The Cardinals are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Arizona needs to tighten up on defense after allowing New Orleans to gain 510 total yards of offense. The Cardinals have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 500 yards in their last game. This team had been playing better under rookie head coach Kliff Kinsbury who has shown promise with his offensive schemes by not staying rigid with the Air Raid offense that he deployed at Texas Tech while incorporating more two-tight end formations to embrace the sophistication of the NFL. Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray continues to improve as well — he is completing 64.8% of his passes while throwing for 1768 passing yards in his first eight starts. Murray will not be complemented by a talented running back in Kenyon Drake who was acquired from Miami at the trade deadline to replenish an injury-depleted backfield. San Francisco may be due for a letdown playing on a short week after their dominant win on Sunday. The 49ers are just 15-32-4 ATS in their last 51 games after a win by at least 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 52 games on the road after win by at least two touchdowns. San Francisco has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Niners rushed for 232 yards which helped them gain 388 total yards. But San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they are just 14-30-1 ATS in their last 45 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The 49ers defense has been outstanding this season — the 13 points that the Panthers scored on Sunday was the most they have allowed in their last four games. But they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 17 points in four straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona won’t lack for confidence in this game after sweeping the 49ers in their two meetings last year. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against division rivals — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games when favored by 7.5 to 10 points. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Arizona Cardinals (302) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (278) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (277). THE SITUATION: Miami (277) has lost their first six games of the season after their 31-21 loss at Buffalo last Sunday as a 17-point underdog. Pittsburgh (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 24-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6-point underdog two weeks ago back on October 13th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS: There are two technical handicapping angles (for my eyes only) that compel me to love this situation for the Steelers. However, I am reticent to lay so many points in the NFL. But, what I like so much about these NFL primetime games is that I can invest a few hours of time to address and solve concerns I have regarding a handicapping situation. So, I went back to 2017 to look at how double-digit favorites perform. The bottom line reads that favorites laying 10 or more points are just 37-43 ATS since the start of the 2017 season. But, looking deeper, when these favorites are laying at least 14 points, these teams become a profitable 20-13 ATS including 6-3 ATS this season. Now, 20-13 ATS is not a reason to take favorite laying 14 or more points. However, that is enough for me to remove my predisposition to avoid otherwise good situations only because the point spread is so high. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye and needs this victory to stay competitive in what is a still wannabe AFC North division. They are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a point spread victory. The Steelers are also a decisive 50-24-2 ATS in their last 76 games in October which includes them covering the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played in October which is likely a testament to the continued improvement this team makes under Mike Tomlin and his coaching staff. The defense is certainly playing better as they have held their last three opponents to just 19.0 PPG along with only 292.3 total YPG. Pittsburgh returns home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 appearances on Monday Night Football. Miami is last in the NFL by scoring 10.5 PPG and averaging just 258.7 total YPG — it might not take many points for the Steelers to be covering this point spread. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, Miami is 7-24-1 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 12 road games as the underdog. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a double-digit underdog.

FINAL TAKE: I have often worried about this Steelers team in situations where they can get complacent. But with Ben Roethlisberger out the season and Mason Rudolph returning at quarterback, I think the sense of urgency should still permeate their locker room. Ryan Fitzpatrick is back as the starting QB for Miami — and he has thrown five interceptions already this season. Pittsburgh is 2nd in the league with 15 takeaways (all since Week Two) — and they are undefeated in their six games against Fitzy as a starter. Finally, I suspect Tomlin will not take the foot off the accelerator tonight as he looks to boost Rudolph’s confidence with a big offensive effort. Lets lay the wood. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (278) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (216) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (215). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (5-2) snapped a two-game losing streak two Thursdays ago with their 30-6 win at Denver as a 3-point favorite. Green Bay (6-1) has won three straight games after their 42-24 win over Oakland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas City will be without Patrick Mahomes who was not cleared to play by the Chiefs medical staff — so it will be Matt Moore under center for this team. Moore is capable to run the Andy Reid offense albeit without the mobility and dynamic playmaking ability of Mahomes. Moore has 30 career starts under his belt whose 46 career touchdown passes are more than his career 36 interceptions. He will benefit from a full week of practice — and he has a healthy Tyreek Hill back at wide receiver with whom he connected for a touchdown last week. Moore was 10 of 19 for 117 yards with that TD and no interceptions in relief last week. The Chiefs should build off their momentum (and extra time to rest and prepare) after that win over the Broncos. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win over an AFC West foe — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win on the road. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Now KC returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record on the road. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a double-digit victory — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. And while the Packers have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the spread in two of their last three contests. Green Bay is also just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. This Packers offense is scoring only 22.0 PPG on the road while averaging just 274.0 total YPG away from home — and this is just their third game on the road this season. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. QB Aaron Rodgers will likely still be without his top target in wide receiver Davante Adams who is listed as doubtful with his turf toe injury.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City is not often an underdog anymore in the Mahomes era — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as the dog. The Chiefs remain loaded with talent even without their starting quarterback while this Packers team is a bit overrated when considering that they have a 6-1 record despite being outgained in yardage (-7.6 net YPG). 10* NFL Green Bay-Kansas City NBC-TV Special with the Kansas City Chiefs (216) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (215). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (251) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (252). THE SITUATION: New York (2-5) has lost three games in a row with their 27-21 upset loss at home to Arizona last week as a 3.5-point favorite. Detroit (2-3-1) has also lost three in a row with their 42-30 loss at home to Minnesota last week as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss to a divisional rival. While the loss to the Vikings was deflated, the players on this team were then dealt what they consider to be a sucker punch by management when starting safety Quandre Diggs was traded to the Seattle (who are overjoyed in snagging him). Diggs was a captain of this team — and the Lions only received a fifth round draft pick in return — which is why many players spoke out in anger about this move. Strong organizations could handle these kind of rifts but this is not the Detroit Lions who already had a shaky relationship with second-year head coach Matt Patricia. Don’t be surprised if this team comes out very flat as a touchdown favorite after this recent series of events. The Lions had been playing well by covering the point spread in four straight games before that double-digit loss to Minnesota — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 53 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The play of the defense has collapsed as of late which is not a good sign for Patricia who got this head coaching gig by being considered a defensive guru. After holding their first three opponents to 20.3 PG along with 397.4 total YPG, they have allowed their last three opponents to score 33.0 PPG while averaging 463.0 total YPG with that latter number being last in the NFL over that span. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. Injuries are also beginning to impact this team. Cornerback Darius Slay is not available with a hamstring injury which challenges this defense even further — and starting running back Kerryon Johnson was placed on Injured Reserve with a knee injury. The Lions have been outrushed by -85 and -114 yards in their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after being outrushed by at least 75 yards in two straight games. New York has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing three in a row. The Giants need to get off to a faster start after allowing Arizona to take a 17-14 halftime lead last week. Minnesota took an 18-7 halftime lead against them in the previous week — but New York has then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 17 first half points in two straight games. This team does have running back Saquon Barkley healthy along with tight end Evan Engram — and rookie quarterback Daniel Jones has been solid. Jones completed 22 of 35 passes last week for 223 yards while adding 35 rushing yards as he displays mobility that Eli Manning was not able to offer this offense. The Lions do not have an elite pass rusher so Jones will benefit from the lack of pressure. The Giants have been a reliable road team as of late as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a losing record at home. New York has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Giants need to limit turnovers as they have lost the turnover battle in two straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after enduring a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. And while New York has allowed at least 27 points in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 25 points in three straight contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 52 of their last 83 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. With this unstable Detroit team beginning to show the signs of fracture, expect a close game from a Giants team that is optimistic about the future with Jones under center. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the New York Giants (251) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (259) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (260). THE SITUATION: New York (1-5) looks to rebound from their embarrassing 33-0 loss at home to New England on Monday Night Football as a 9.5-point underdog. Jacksonville (3-4) comes off a 27-17 win at Cincinnati last Sunday as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: New York and quarterback Sam Darnold hit rock bottom last week against the outstanding Patriots defense. Darnold was “seeing ghosts” by leading an offense that generated only 154 total yards — and the Jets committed a whopping six turnovers for an insurmountable -5 net turnover margin. But this was also the team that had just defeated Dallas the previous week by a 24-22 score. Darnold had looked like he had turned a corner in his development before last week. Over his last four games last season, Darnold had a Quarterback Rating of 99.1 while throwing six touchdown passes and just one interception. And then in his two starts this season, Darnold had a QBR of 97.6 while completing 69.9% of his passes for 513 yards with three touchdown passes and just one interception before the debacle against the Patriots. I expect a bounce-back effort this afternoon. The Jets have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after playing on Monday Night Football. New York has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Jets have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 15 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Jacksonville may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit victory on the road. Furthermore, the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. And while the Jags benefited from a +4 net turnover margin last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after enjoying a +3 or better turnover margin in their last game. Jacksonville generated 460 yards of offense last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Despite that offensive output, rookie Gardner Minshew is regressing as a quarterback after his fantastic start. Minshew completed 66.7% of his passes with a 105.6 Passer Rating while averaging 255.8 passing YPG with nine touchdown passes and one interception in his first five starts. But over his last two games, Minshew has just a 68.9 Passer Rating while averaging only 209 passing YPG while completing just 47.5% of his passes with one TD pass and an interception. Now this team returns home where they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars did suffocate the struggling Bengals rushing attack to just 33 rushing yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the New York Jets (259) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (101) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (102). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-6) enters this short week coming off a 9-0 loss at home in torrential rain against San Francisco as a 10-point underdog. Minnesota (5-2) has won three straight games with their 42-30 win at Detroit last Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: This is simply too many points for an underdog on a short week that has a solid defense. I know that Washington is an ugly team to take in this situation — but that explains why the line keeps rising with bettors preferring the “better” team. Washington has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where no more than 14 combined points were scored. And while the Skins have only covered the point spread once in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Washington has also covered the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games on the road after losing five or six of their last seven contests. Furthermore, the Skins have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Minnesota has won three games in a row all by at least 12 points — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after at least two straight wins by double-digits. And while the Vikings have been favored (and covered the point spread) in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after three straight games as the favorite. Despite the recent success of their three-game winning streak, the Minnesota defense has 400 and 433 yards in each of their last two games. The Vikings have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight contests.

FINAL TAKE: This remains Kirk Cousins playing in a primetime game where he has a 4-12 straight up record in his career. And this primetime game also offers a stage for Adrian Peterson to earn a measure of revenge against his old team in the Vikings. Minnesota can struggle with complacency — it is too much to expect them to cover this big point spread. 10* NFL Washington-Minnesota Fox-TV Special with the Washington Redskins (101) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Jets (476) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). THE SITUATION: New York (1-4) looks to build off their 24-22 upset win at home against Dallas last Sunday as a 7-point underdog. New England (6-0) comes off a 35-14 win at the New York Giants as a 16.5-point favorite two Thursdays ago back on October 10th. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: New York played much better with Sam Darnold back under center after missing three games after contracting mononucleosis. The second-year quarterback completed 23 of 32 passes for 338 yards with two touchdown passes while leading the Jets’ to 382 yards of offense in their upset victory over the Cowboys. Darnold seemed to have taken a big step in his development in the last quarter of the season last year. Over his last four games, Darnold had a Quarterback Rating of 99.1 while throwing six touchdown passes and just one interception. In his two starts this season, Darnold has a QBR of 97.6 while completing 69.9% of his passes for 513 yards with three touchdown passes and just one interception. While the Jets are scoring only 12.6 PPG this season, that number does bump up to 18 PPG in Darold’s two games which looks pretty good when adding the ten or so points as the underdog in this game. New York has covered the point spread in a decisive 35 of their last 55 home games after playing a game at home in their last game. The Jets are also 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, New York has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games in the month of October. New England was a 16-point favorite in their 33-7 win at Washington two weeks ago before their easy win at MetLife against the Giants last week. But the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning their last two games by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in two straight games as a double-digit favorite. And while New England has outgained their last two opponents by 214 and 222 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after outgaining their last two opponents by at least 150 net yards in both contests. Furthermore, while the Patriots lead the NFL by averaging 31.7 PPG this season, that number drops to 25.9 PPG when taking away their three defensive touchdowns and two additional touchdowns coming from special teams. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 road games when favored by 7.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to the Meadowlands to face the Jets on the road. Expect a closer than expected contest in this rematch from New England’s 30-14 victory in Foxboro back on September 22nd again a New York team playing without Darnold. The Jets have covered the pint spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least two touchdowns. 10* NFL New England-NY Jets ESPN Special with the New York Jets (476) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (474) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (473). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-3) looks to bounce-back from their 24-22 upset loss in New York against the Jets as a 7-point favorite. Philadelphia (3-3) also looks to rebound from a 38-20 loss at Minnesota where they were 3.5-point underdogs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: This is one of those games where careful handicappers and bettors wait for the final active/inactive reports before making a final call. The good news for Dallas is that they look to get a handful of important players back tonight. Most importantly, their outstanding left tackle, Tryon Smith, will be protecting Dak Prescott’s blind side tonight as he returns from his ankle injury. Offensive linemen La’el Collins and Zack Martin have also been upgraded to probable which is critical for this team — the offensive line is the straw that stirs the drink for this team as it both fuels the ground game for Ezekiel Elliott while also protecting Prescott who is a much better passer when his jersey is clean. Prescott will also have his top two receiving targets in Amari Cooper and Randall Cobb for this game. The Cowboys have pulled off the rare and dubious feat of being upset in three straight games — usually, these teams eventually become underdogs. It is telling that Dallas remains favored for this NFC East showdown tonight. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing three of their last four contests — and they have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against fellow opponents from the NFC East. The Cowboys did manage to generate 399 yards last week even with their injuries on offense — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They return home where they are scoring 30.0 PPG while averaging 511.0 total YPG. Dallas did surrender 326 passing yards to the Jets last week — but they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 300 yards in their last game. Philadelphia is also feeling with a bevy of injuries but the news is not as good for them. On offense, wide receiver DeSean Jackson, running back Darren Sproles, and left tackle Jason Peters are all out. Sproles is a nice change-of-pace back but the Eagles have other options. The absence of Jackson really hurts as he is the team’s most credible deep threat which opens up the field for Carson Wentz. Peters is an All-Pro left tackle. On defense, Philly looks likely to get cornerback Jalen Mills back on the field but his partner Ronald Mills remains questionable with his hamstring. But linebacker Nigel Bradham is out along with nickel back Avonte Maddox. The defense is already without starting linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill and defensive linemen Tim Jernigan and Malik Jackson. The depth this team enjoyed at the beginning of the season is already being severely tested. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road. Philadelphia allowed 447 yards to the Vikings last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They stay on the road for a second straight week where they are allowing 29.5 PPG along with 435.0 total YPG. On offense, the Eagles are only averaging 349.3 total YPG which is 20th in the NFL. Philly has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing on field turf.

FINAL TAKE: Wentz has not been as nearly as successful when playing on the road where he has lost fourteen of his twenty-three starts. In this gut-check game for both teams, look for the home field to make the difference. 10* NFL Philadelphia-Dallas NBC-TV Special with the Dallas Cowboys (474) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (472) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (471). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-2) returns to the field again after getting embarrassed in London back on October 6th in their 24-21 upset loss to Oakland as a 6.5-point favorite. New Orleans (5-1) has won four games in a row with their 13-6 upset win at Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Chicago should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. And while the Bears managed only 236 yards of offense, Chicago has then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. Chase Daniel was the starting quarterback across the pond but Mitchell Trubisky will be back under center with the additional time to rehab his bum shoulder. Trubisky has struggled this season but I think he will benefit from the time off to regain perspective about his role in the offense. That game with the Raiders flew over the 40 point total — and Chicago has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a game that finished Over the Total. The Bears also get one of their important offensive weapons back in Taylor Gabriel who scored a touchdown in his last game on Monday Night Football before suffering a concussion that has kept him out this month. Chicago returns home where they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 7 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Chicago has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams from the NFC. New Orleans will be without running back Alvin Kamara who is dealing with an ankle. While Teddy Bridgewater has been solid in relief of the injured Drew Brees, the absence of Kamara leaves this Saints’ offense lacking star power on the offensive side of the football. That is not a good sign when facing this elite Bears defense that is allowing only 13.8 PPG along with just 312.2 total YPG. New Orleans is scoring only 18.3 PPG on the road while averaging just 278.3 total YPG. The Saints outgained the Jaguars by +100 yards last week after winning the yardage battle against Dallas by +205 yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 30 games after outgaining their last two opponents by +100 net yards. And while the Jaguars managed only 75 rushing yards last week, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints’ 5-1 record is accompanied by a mere +4.0 net YPG margin this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (472) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (457) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (458). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (4-2) has won two straight games after their 38-20 win over Philadelphia last week as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (2-2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 23-22 loss at Green Bay on Monday Night Football as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKING MINUS THE POINTS: Don’t be surprised if the Lions are emotionally flat in this game after they feel they were jobbed by the referees on Monday night. This is a losing franchise that has little experience with successfully picking themselves off the mat when facing adversity. That narrow loss came on the heels of their 34-30 loss at home to Kansas City in their previous game before a bye week where everything was focused on the Packers. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after losing two straight games by 6 points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing their last two games where they did cover the point spread in both games. The Lions have met point spread expectations in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. Detroit has won the turnover battle in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after having at least a +1 net turnover margin in three straight contests. Now the Lions return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games as an underdog getting up to 3 points. They host a Vikings team that has owned them as of late. Minnesota swept the divisional series last season while not allowing Detroit to score more than 9 points in either contest. Matthew Stafford has lost his last three starts against the Vikings with only two touchdown passes in those three contests — and two of those games were at home at Ford Field. Minnesota has seen much better play from their quarterback since wide receiver Adam Thielen called him out publicly for his need to be more aggressive in the passing game. Kirk Cousins has responded with two straight 300-yard passing games with six touchdown passes. He has completed 78.5% of his passes in those games while averaging a healthy 11.4 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Vikings are very tough to beat when they get their offense cranking since their defense has not allowed more than 21 points all season. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Minnesota has generated 447 and 490 yards over their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 375 yards in two straight games. The Vikings go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams who are not winning more than 50% of their games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games when playing in a dome. Furthermore, Minnesota has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is 17-8-3 ATS in their last 28 meetings with the Lions — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Detroit. Look for the Lions to find a way to lose another one. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (457) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (303) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (304). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (4-2) has lost two games in a row after their 31-24 upset loss at home to Houston on Sunday. Denver (2-4) has won their last two games with their 16-0 shutout win over Tennessee as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City is struggling with a bevy of injuries — but they did get Patrick Mahomes’ favorite target back last week in wide receiver Tyreek Hill. After suffering two straight upset losses at the hands of the Colts and then the Texans last week, look for the Chiefs to get back to their winning ways tonight. Kansas City is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games against teams from the AFC. Additionally, the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams from the AFC West. And while Kansas City surrendered 472 yards of offense to the Texans last week, they have then covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 games on the road after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Denver is scoring just 17.7 PPG this season which is 26th in the NFL — and they are averaging only 336.2 total YPG which is also 25th in the league. The Broncos are likely to settle for field goals with the Chiefs scoring touchdowns to pull out this game. Denver has played their last two games Under the Total which has helped them win both games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after playing their last two games Under the Total. The Broncos are also 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing 14 or fewer points. Additionally, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against fellow AFC West opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 meetings with the Broncos — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against them in Denver. 10* NFL Kansas City-Denver Fox-TV Special with the Kansas City Chiefs (303) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (275) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (276). THE SITUATION: Detroit (2-1-1) takes the field again after their 34-30 loss at home to Kansas City as a 7.5-point underdog two weeks ago back on September 29th. Green Bay (4-1) comes off a 34-24 upset win in Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit has gotten healthy with the benefit of their bye week. The Lions have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a bye week. The eye test suggests that the Lions played pretty good defense to slow down Patrick Mahomes. Head coach Matt Patricia has proven himself one of the best schematic defensive coaches in the league — and it is telling that the Chiefs have scored only 37 combined points in their last two games since that game with Detroit. Bill Belichick also used some of the Patricia blueprints in the Lions’ defensive game plan against the Rams in last year’s Super Bowl. Detroit has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. And while the Lions allowed 438 yards to the Chiefs in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Detroit did generate 447 yards in that contest. The Lions are a surprising 6th in the NFL by averaging 387.5 total YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Matthew Stafford is finding success in an offense that is asking him to do less — he completed 21 of 34 passes for 291 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions against Kansas City. Detroit has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now the Lions go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road — and they are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread win. The Packers defeated the Cowboys despite being outgained by a 563 to 335 margin. A +3 net turnover margin played a big role in Green Bay pulling off that upset. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Packers have won four of their five games despite being outgained by -39.6 net YPG. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow NFC North foes.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing on Monday Night Football — and the Lions have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on Monday Night Football. Detroit has won four straight games against the Packers while winning three of their last four games in Lambeau Field — so they will be confident playing this game. Expect a close one where the dog will have a chance to win outright. 10* NFL Detroit-Green Bay ESPN Special with the Detroit Lions (275) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (273) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (274). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-4) looks to rebound from their 26-23 loss in overtime last week at home against Baltimore as a 7.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (2-3) looks to bounce-back from a 20-13 upset loss at home to Denver as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Chargers are overvalued right now with bettors remembering their nice playoff run last season. Injuries have devastated this team. The defense is playing without their best player in safety Derwin James. The offensive line is down two starters with left tackle Russell Okung on the PUP list with his heart issue and now center Mike Pouncey being played on Injured Reserve this week with a neck injury. Los Angeles was outgained by -104 net yards last week to a winless Broncos team. They do have running back Melvin Gordon back — but Austin Ekeler was doing quite fine (or better?) as they lead running back in his absence. Quarterback Philip Rivers may be showing the signs of his age — the Charters offense only generated 246 yards last week. The Chargers have then ailed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Los Angeles stays at home where they simply do not have much of an advantage playing in a smaller soccer stadium in front of a fan base that is more enamored with the Rams. The Chargers are 1-2 at home this season where they are being outscored by -2.7 PPG and outgained by -18.3 net YPG. Los Angeles is 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Pittsburgh will be relying on Devlin Hodges as their quarterback with Mason Rudolph not yet having cleared the concussion protocol. I first learned about Hodges when handicapping preseason football which requires getting a good grasp on every backup QB. Hodges broke the all-time passing yards record in the FCS last year playing for Samford. He has impressed NFL scouts with his moxie and ability to operate practice squad offenses. The Steelers were so impressed with him from raining camp that they felt comfortable trading away Josh Dobbs despite the possibility that they would need their third-string QB. And Hodges was confident and effective in relief last week as he completed 7 of 9 passes for 68 yards while adding another 20 yards on the ground in leading the offense to a scoring drive and getting his team into overtime. I suspect the Steelers’ coaching staff do not feel they will miss a beat with him under center when compared to Rudolph. And this Pittsburgh franchise still thinks they can make the playoffs with them just two games behind the Ravens. Remember, Indianapolis made the playoffs last year despite a 1-4 start. Pittsburgh has one of the most underrated defenses in the league right now who have forced 12 turnovers since Week Two. The Steelers defense has also given up no more than 139 passing yards in two straight weeks. This organization was very high on what their defense would do this season after they drafted Devin Bush in the first round which provided them speed at the linebacker position that they have lacked since the injury to Ryan Shazier. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home. The Steelers are also 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of October — and they are a decisive 49-24-2 ATS in their last 75 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: Bet against this Steelers franchise as a road underdog at your own peril. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 63 of their last 104 road games when getting the points — and this includes them covering the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games when getting up to 7 points. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (273) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (267) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (268). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (1-4) has lost three straight games after their 53-32 loss at Houston last week as a 4-point underdog. Arizona (1-3-1) earned their first victory of the Kyler Murray (and Kliff Kingsbury) era with their 26-23 upset win at Cincinnati last week as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a “gotta have it” game for this Atlanta team. The urgency of the situation compelled head coach Dan Quinn to keep his team out west to prepare for this game. I like the road trip workweek mentality — and it should help this team address some of their problems on defense. The biggest problem for this team is they have been once again hit by the injury bug with the Regression Gods paying them back for their Super Bowl season three years ago where their starting five on the offensive line played every game. The Falcons have bounced back to cover the pint spread in 9 straight games after a loss by at least three touchdowns. Atlanta surrendered 592 yards last week with 166 of those yards being on the ground. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 53 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. And while Houston averaged a whopping 7.49 Yards-Per-Play last week, Atlanta has covered the point spread in 34 of their last 51 road games after a game where they allowed at least 6.5 YPP. While this Falcons team may be permanently damaged with their psyche after blowing that Super Bowl game against the Patriots, Quinn has not forgotten how to coach defense. Not many individuals have served as defensive coordinator for a Super Bowl champion and then later served as the head coach for a second team to reach the Super Bowl. He should have his team prepared for the Texas Tech offense that the Cardinals operate. The offense is still clicking behind Matt Ryan. They gained 373 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. I don’t give Arizona much credit for defeating a Bengals team riddled with injuries and down to their fourth left tackle. Yet they still allowed that offense to generate 370 total yards — and they are just 11-24-1 ATS in their last 36 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Cardinals are 28th in the NFL by allowing 27.6 PPG — and they are 29th in the league by allowing 408.0 total YPG. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they are 4-13-2 ATS in their last 19 games after a straight-up win.

FINAL TAKE: Look for the Falcons’ veteran experience to make the difference in this one. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Atlanta Falcons (267) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (266) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (265). Los Angeles (3-2) looks to bounce-back from their 30-29 loss at Seattle as a 1.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago back on October 3rd. San Francisco (4-0) remained one of two undefeated teams this season with their 31-3 win over Cleveland as a 5-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles should benefit from the extra time to prepare for this game. Excluding last year’s Super Bowl, head coach Sean McVay has won ten straight games when coaching with extra days to prepare with his offense scoring 37 PPG — and the Rams are 8-1-1 ATS in those ten games. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. Los Angeles will be without running back Todd Gurley for this game but they have talent behind in Malcolm Brown who starred at Texas along with their rookie Darrell Henderson who was a juggernaut at Memphis. The Rams managed to rush for only 82 yards against the Seahawks — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards. Now they return home where QB Jared Goff usually plays much better than on the road. Los Angeles is scoring 33.5 PPG at home while averaging 449.0 total YPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles has to tighten things up on defense after allowing 429 yards in their last game. 262 of those yards were in the air — but the Rams have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Niners have been anointed to the Super Bowl by many after their dominant performance in primetime on Monday. But San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The 49ers have also failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after playing on Monday Night Football. San Francisco generated 446 yards of offense in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 road games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. This team was already playing with their left tackle Joe Staley — but their vaunted ground game has taken two more big hits for this game with both right tackle Mike McGlinchey and blocking fullback Kyle Juszczyk both out for this game with knee injuries. This is a team that has benefited from an easy early schedule against four teams that have combined for a 4-15 record after the Buccaneers loss this morning. The Niners are just 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams from the NFC West — and Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC West foes. The Rams have a significant experience edge when it comes to playing in high profile games as of late. They should pull away for a comfortable win. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (266) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (260) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (259). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (2-3) looks to bounce-back from their 34-27 loss at Carolina last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. New Orleans (4-1) has won three straight games after their 31-24 win at home against Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINTS: At first glance, it might look easy to take the Saints coming off three straight victories with two of them against quality competition in Dallas and Seattle despite being without Drew Brees under center. Teddy Bridgewater has proven himself very capable as the starting quarterback for this team. Yet after two upset wins against the Cowboys and Seahawks and then grinding out a win against a divisional rival that always plays them tough, this Saints team may be due for an emotional letdown against an unfamiliar AFC opponent. All four of New Orleans wins have been by one scoring possession — so they are living dangerously. This team has given up more points than they have scored this season — and they are being outgained by -15.2 net YPG. The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a game against an NFC South rival. This is also a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on grass. In their two games on the road, they have generated just 244 and 265 yards of offense. Remember, that win in Seattle was fueled by a defensive touchdown and a special teams touchdown that helped them overcome getting outgained by -250 yards! Star running back Alvin Kamara will play in this game despite an ankle injury but he does not appear to be playing at 100%. Jacksonville returns home after playing their last two games on the road — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams who are not winning more than 50% of their games on the road. The Jaguars are very happy with the play of rookie Gardner Minshew. He is only the third quarterback in the Super Bowl era to post a Quarterback Rating over 100 after his first three starts. Minshew has nine touchdown passes to zero interceptions in his career after completing 26 of 44 passes for 374 yards with two TD passes last week — and he added another 42 yards on the ground. The Jaguars generated 507 yards last week against a good Panthers defense while averaging 6.76 Yards-Per-Play after gaining 455 yards at Denver the week before while averaging 6.1 YPP — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. Running back Leonard Fournette vowed to have a big year this season and he has rushed for over 100 yards in his last two games while accumulating 305 yards after contact which is tops in the league. The Jacksonville defense has to play better after allowing 445 yards to the Panthers. Carolina averaged 7.67 YPP in that game — but Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 7.0 YPP in their last game. The good news for this defense is that Jalen Ramsey will be back on the field again after having a heart-to-heart this week with the owner.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars are favored in this game because the underlying numbers suggest these teams are much closer to being even — especially with Brees still out. Let’s trust the numbers. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars (260) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (259). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (256) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (255). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (2-3) looks to rebound from their 31-3 loss at San Francisco last Monday night as a 5-point underdog. Seattle (4-1) comes off a 30-29 win over the Los Angeles Rams back on October 3rd two Thursdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Young but talented teams tend to be inconsistent. I look for Cleveland to bounce-back with one of their better efforts of the season this afternoon. The Browns have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, Cleveland has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Quarterback Baker Mayfield plays better when humbled rather than when overconfident. The Browns have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Look for the Cleveland defense to play better — and they are getting Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams back in their secondary for this game. The Browns have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Cleveland defense is 5th in the NFL by limiting their opponents to converting on just 31.3 of their 3rd downs. And led by Myles Garrett, the Browns are tied for 6th in the league with 16 sacks — and they are 7th in the NFL by allowing only 206.4 passing YPG. This is a tough assignment for a Seahawks team that is without two starters on their offensive line in Duane Brown and D.J. Fluker who are dealing with biceps and hamstring injuries respectively. Don’t be surprised if the Seahawks suffer a letdown traveling east for this early kickoff after they defeated Arizona by a 27-10 score before their big win over the Rams. Seattle has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning their last two games against NFC West foes where they scored at least 24 points in both games. The Seahawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning four of their last five games. Seattle held the ball for over 35 minutes of that game while churning out 25 first downs against LA — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a game where they controlled the clock for at least 34 minutes while getting at least 24 first downs. And while Russell Wilson completed 17 of 23 passes for 268 yards in that win, the Seahawks are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland matches up with Seattle when it comes to overall talent. Look for the Browns to take a page out of the Seahawks playbook by running the ball and controlling the clock to keep Wilson off the field. Cleveland opened as a small favorite and now find themselves bet down to a small underdog in many spots. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but take the points for some insurance) Underdog Special with the Cleveland Browns (256) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (255). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Giants (103) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (104). THE SITUATION: New York (2-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 28-10 loss at home to Minnesota as a 5.5-point underdog. New England (5-0) returns home after playing their last two games on the road after their 33-7 win at Washington as a 15.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York should respond with a strong effort — they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. Admittedly, the Giants are a M*A*S*H unit right now. The Giants were already without star running back Sequon Barkley with his knee injury but the injuries began to mount in that game with the carry-over being significant for this game being played on a short week. Barkley’s backup, Wayne Gallman, is out tonight having not cleared the concussion protocol leaving the rushing duties to Jon Hillman who came off the practice squad a few weeks ago. Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones is also without his top two receiving threats in wide receiver Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram as they deal with a concussion and MCL injuries respectively. But at least this team got wide receiver, Golden Tate, back last week after he served his four-game suspension. And this is a team playing with optimism given the hope that rookie quarterback Daniel Jones provides for the future. The Giants had the best statistical offense in the preseason with Jones getting plenty of experience playing with the backup weapons so there will be familiarity for this offense when it takes the field tonight. New York managed only 211 total yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to gain at least 250 total yards in their last contest. The Giants were outrushed by 147 net yards to the Vikings last week — but they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after being outrushed by at least 75 yards in their last game. Additionally, New York has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Patriots will be leaning on their defense for this game given the injuries this team is experiencing on offense. Wide receiver Phillip Dorsett is out with a hamstring injury while wide receivers Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman are both listed as questionable with a knee and chest injury. The targets for Tom Brady in the passing game were already a big question mark for this team as they transition away from the Rob Gronkowski era. The lack of an elite weapon in the passing game is why the team took a chance on Antonio Brown before he proved to be too much trouble for what he offered. It was the Brown signing that compelled the Patriots to trade away wide receiver Demaryius Thomas early in the season when it looked like they had too many bodies at that position. Now this team could use a reliable healthy body at that position with their first-round draft choice, N’Keal Harry, on Injured Reserve with a knee injury. New England is scoring 31.0 PPG this season — but that includes their defense scoring four times already this year with another touchdown scored by their special teams via a blocked punt. Take away those five defensive/special team scores and the Patriots scoring average drops by a full touchdown to a 24.0 PPG clip — and those 17 or so points they are laying tonight begins to look pretty thin. The defending Super Bowl champions have also benefited from an easy early schedule. Take away their 16-10 victory over Buffalo where they were outgained by a 375-224 margin and out-first downed by a 23 to 11 gap, the remaining four teams on the New England schedule consisting of Pittsburgh, Miami, the Jets, and the Skins are a combined 1-17. Throw in some 20 MPH winds with light rain and the Patriots content with an easy win where the team remains healthy — and I will hold my nose while investing in the value of all those points with the dog.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants have covered the point spread in 5 straight meetings with the Patriots — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Foxboro to face New England. 10* NFL NY Giants-New England Fox-TV Special with the New York Giants (103) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (477) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (478). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (2-2) looks to build off their 40-25 victory in Baltimore against the Ravens last Sunday night. San Francisco (3-0) takes the field again after their 24-20 victory over Pittsburgh as a 6-point favorite back on September 22nd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: San Francisco generated 436 yards of offense against the Steelers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The 49ers have also failed to covet the point spread in 6 straight games after their bye week. This team entered the regular season with significant concerns about the health of quarterback Jimmy Garappolo with his returning from knee surgery. Now this team has been overhyped with the two weeks of remaining one of the two remaining undefeated in the league. Yet the Niners have benefited from an easy schedule that has featured Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, and Mason Rudolph. San Francisco has also won their first three games despite committing eight turnovers. The 49ers turned the ball over five times in their win against the Steelers while winning that game despite a -3 net turnover margin. The 49ers have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. San Francisco stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games when favored by no more than 7 points. San Francisco has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of October. Cleveland got back to their ground game going last week in their win on the road against the Ravens. They rushed for 193 yards in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Browns generated 528 yards of offense in that game while averaging 6.5 Yards-Per-Play — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 6.5 YPP in their last game. Cleveland stays on the road this week where they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Browns are still dealing with injuries in their defensive backfield with Denzel Ward and Phillip Gaines still out with injuries — but this team has veterans that played well against the Ravens last week in their absence. San Francisco is also dealing with some significant injuries with left tackle Joe Staley and defensive back Ahkello Witherspoon both out for this game. 10* NFL Cleveland-San Francisco ESPN Special with the Cleveland Browns (477) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (2-2) looks to rebound from their 31-24 upset loss at home to Oakland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (4-0) remained undefeated last week with their 34-30 win at Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis should bounce-back with a strong effort in this game — they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 38 of their last 56 games after a straight-up loss. And while they have played two straight games where at least 51 combined points were scored, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing at least two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. Jacoby Brissett has proven himself as a legitimate starting quarterback with over 900 passing yards in his first four starts with 10 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. It looks like Brissett will have the benefit of his wider receiver T.Y. Hilton on the field for this game with the reports indicating he will play despite his quad injury. He should be able to keep his team close in this game (as a double-digit underdog) against this Kansas City defense that is allowing 259 passing YPG this year. The Chiefs have been even worse with their run defense as opposing rushers are averaging 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry which is translating into 150 rushing YPG. The Colts have finally developed a strong offensive line — and while that group cannot salvage Andrew Luck’s career, they will help the Indy offense in the ground game and in giving Brissett time to pick apart the Kansas City defense. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. The Colts are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Kansas City was actually outgained by the Lions last week by a 447 to 438 yardage mark — their controversial 100-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown ended up playing a critical role in that win. The Chiefs surrendered 447 yards to the Detroit offense — and they have allowed their last three opponents to average 402 total YPG. Kansas City remains undefeated because of their dynamic offense as they have averaged 474.0 total YPG along with 468.3 total YPG over their last three contests. But the Chiefs have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after averaging at least 450 YPG in their last three games. Furthermore, Kansas City has scored 28 points in all four of their games this season — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after scoring at least 25 points in four straight contests.

FINAL TAKE: Don’t underestimate what this game means to Colts’ head coach Frank Reich after his team lost in Kansas City last January 12th in the AFC Divisional Playoffs with their 31-13 loss. Yet Indianapolis has still covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 meetings with the Chiefs — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played in Arrowhead Stadium. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Kansas City NBC-TV Special with the Indianapolis Colts (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (451) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (452). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-2) looks to bounce-back from their 40-25 upset loss at home to Cleveland last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (1-3) looks to build off their 27-3 victory at home over Cincinnati on Monday as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: The Steelers finally earned their first win of the season on Monday — but I expect them to suffer a letdown having to play on a short week. Pittsburgh is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games played after Monday Night Football. And while the Steelers held the listless Bengals to just 175 yards of offense, they are then 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 250 total yards in their last game. At first glance, it looked like quarterback Mason Rudolph had a great game as he completed 24 of 28 passes for 229 yards — but a handful of those completions were forward lateral jet sweep routes that are just glorified run plays. Head coach Mike Tomlin admitted that the offense reached into their bag of gimmicks to provide some spice to their offense. Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh and his staff have now had a week of practice to deal with their wildcat look with Jaylen Samuels under center along with the other tricks they employed against the Bengals. Overall, Pittsburgh passed of 260 yards in that game — but they are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. While the demise of the Steelers was overblown going into Monday with their opponents currently owning a combined 11-1 record, this team still has some significant problems that help account for their 0-3 start. The Pittsburgh offensive line has struggled which has hurt James Connor’s ability to get the ground game going. The lack of a proven true number one wide receiver has also put pressure on the rushing attack — and there has yet to emerge a reliable second wide receiver to complement JuJu Smith-Shuster. And, of course, Rudolph is not nearly the quarterback that the injured Ben Roethlisberger is. Furthermore, the Pittsburgh pass defense had allowed at least 268 passing yards in their three losses before getting to play the Bengals without their top wideout A.J. Green. Baltimore will be feisty to earn a win after dropping their last two games to Kansas City and the Browns last week. The Ravens have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an AFC North rival. And while Cleveland outgained them by 133 net yards in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games on the road after being outgained by at least 100 net yards. Baltimore needs to play better on defense after allowing 528 and 503 yards of offense in their last two games. The Ravens should tighten up on that side of the field as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at last 450 yards in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after allowing at least 375 yards in two straight contests. Both of their last two games finished Over the Total — but Baltimore has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing at least two straight Overs. The Ravens have been a good team on the road under Harbaugh — they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road while also covering the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens usually bring their “A-Game” when facing the Steelers. Baltimore is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against Pittsburgh — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing the Steelers on their Heinz Field. 25* NFL AFC North Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (451) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (469) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (470). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 16-10 loss at home to New England last week as a 7-point underdog. Tennessee (2-2) looks to build off their 24-10 upset win on the road in Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: The Titans may be due for a letdown after that upset victory last week. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after an upset victory on the road by at least two touchdowns as an underdog. Tennessee got their offense going by generating 415 yards of offense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. While this offense will get a shot in the arm with the return of left tackle Taylor Lewan after he served his four-game PED suspension, this remains a group that is averaging just 321.5 total YPG. Marcus Mariota is just 30-30 in his sixty career starts — and he has thrown 29 interceptions in those 30 losses which does not speak well when facing elite defenses. The Bills have one of the best secondaries in the business. Tennessee is also due for a visit from the Regression Gods as they have fumbled eight times this season but has only turned the ball over once in those mishaps. The Titans hang their hats on their defense that ranks fourth in the league by allowing just 15.5 PPG. But Tennessee did allow 422 total yards to the Falcons last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Titans return home for just their second game all season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Tennessee is also just 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Buffalo is 2-0 on the road this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. The Bills played well against the Patriots last week as they outgained them by +151 net yards while winning the first down battle by a 23 to 11 margin. Surrendering a blocked punt for a touchdown played a role as well as having their quarterback get knocked out with a head injury. The Bills frustrated Tom Brady all day as he completed just 18 of 39 passes for only 150 yards. Buffalo is fifth in the league by allowing 15.7 PPG — and they rank second in the NFL by giving up just 286.7 total YPG. Head coach Sean McDermott has ten starters back from last year’s defense that led the league in total defense. McDermott should have his team ready to play as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss at home where they covered the point spread as the underdog — and the Bills have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after failing to score more than 14 points. The good news for Buffalo is that Josh Allen has been cleared from the concussion protocol to be able to play in this game. The Bills have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams has allowed more than 20 points — and, considering that the last three meetings between these two teams have been decided by just one point, a very close game is likely. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Buffalo Bills (469) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (302) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 55-40 loss to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 9-point favorite. Seattle (3-1) comes off a 27-10 win at Arizona on Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINT(S): Seattle bounced-back from their loss at home to New Orleans by getting back to their ground game on the road in Arizona. After quarterback Russell Wilson threw 50 passes against the Saints in their 76 offensive plays from scrimmage, head coach Pete Carroll got his team back to almost a 50-50 run/pass ratio with 27 rushing attempts and 28 pass attempts for Wilson. Seattle actually outgained the Saints by a whopping 515 to 265 yardage differential in that game but surrendering a special team's touchdown and a defensive touchdown helped New Orleans seize and maintain the lead in that game. Carroll credits his team's courage to commit to the run last season as the reason why they rallied from an 0-2 start to make the playoffs. While it may be boring, running plays up the middle lull the strong safety into the box which makes him a step behind in providing double coverage in the deep shots they then want Wilson to take. Now the Seahawks return home where they will be very motivated to play better at home this week after their loss to the Saints — and they will also be looking to avenge getting swept by this Rams team last season. In fact, Los Angeles has won their last two visits to Seattle as well as three of their last four games there — so this is a critical game on the Seahawks calendar. Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games against fellow teams from the NFC. The Seahawks have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the month of October. And Seattle has been outstanding when playing on Thursday nights on the Carroll regime as they are 7-0-2 ATS in their last 9 games played for Thursday Night Football. Los Angeles has struggled in these contests as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 appearances on Thursday Night Football. The Rams are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles is struggling to find themselves on offense after Todd Gurley ran the ball only five times last week despite head coach Sean McVay proclaiming he wanted to get his running back 25 touches. Gurley did not even get his first touch in that game until their fourth possession in the eighteenth offensive play of the game. In fact, Gurley has rushed the ball only 19 times in the first half in the first four games of the season with that mark rising to 30 combined carries in the second half so far this year (with a nice 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry mark). Jared Goff completed 45 of 68 passes in that game for 517 yards — but the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where they generated at least 350 yards. They are also just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The failure to establish Gurley as a viable option has ruined the team’s play-action passing attack from which Goff thrived last season. He has a low 60 Passer Rating on play-action passes this season because defenses are not taking the bait on the potential handoff to the running back. Goff has also not been nearly as effective in the passing game on the road. Los Angeles is averaging 298 passing YPG this season with Goff completing 64.2% of his passes while averaging 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt — but those marks drop to just 219 passing YPG into their two road games this season with Goff completing just 61.7% of his passes while averaging just 5.7 YPA. Additionally, the concerns of this Rams offense has much to do with their reconfigured offensive line after they let two veterans in Robert Safford and John Sullivan go in the offseason to make room for two of their 2018 draft choices in Joseph Noteboom and Brian Allen. This line has taken a few steps back this season with Pro Football Focus rating them as the lowest-graded unit in the league this season. All the passing from Goff also leads to turnovers — he had three interceptions against the Buccaneers after throwing two interceptions the previous week at Cleveland. Goff has six interceptions on the season which has played a direct role in the Rams’ having a -2 and -3 net turnover margin over their last two games. Los Angeles has then failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games after having a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: While the Rams have won six of the last eight meetings between these two teams straight-up, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Seahawks — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 trips to Seattle to face this team. 10* NFL LA Rams-Seattle Fox-TV Special with the Seattle Seahawks (302) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (278) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (277). THE SITUATION: THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-3) remained winless this season with their 24-20 loss at San Francisco last Sunday as a 6-point underdog. Cincinnati (0-3) looks to bounce-back from their 21-17 loss at Buffalo last Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. 
 
REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: In Mike Tomlin, I trust for him to rally his team tonight to earn their first victory of the season. In spite of the Steelers’ disappointing start to the season along with the season-ending injury to Ben Roethlisberger, the fact remains that a win tonight pulls Pittsburgh within one game of first place of the AFC North — and with two divisional games still on tap with Cleveland and Baltimore. This is far from a lost season for this franchise. And while Mason Rudolph was not great last week in completing 14 of 27 passes for 174 yards with two touchdown passes and one interception, this franchise liked him enough to trade away Joshua Dobbs after the preseason. The Steelers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Pittsburgh has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 48 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Steelers need to play better on defense after allowing all three of their opponents to generate at least 425 yards. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. It needs to start up from for the Steelers after they have allowed their last two opponents to rush for 151 and 168 yards. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in two straight games. Hosting this Bengals team may be just what the proverbial doctor ordered. The problems with the Cincy offense starts with their ground game. After managing to average 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry against the Bills last week, they actually raised their YPC mark for the season to just 2.4 YPC which remains dead last in the league. The Bengals running backs are not getting much help at all from their offensive line — they are averaging just 0.3 yards before contact which is also last in the NFL. These limitations in their rushing attack have made Cincinnati one-dimensional. Quarterback Andy Dalton is averaging 43.3 passing attempts per game which is well above his previous season-high of 36.6 passing attempts per game. While the Bengals’ 67 rushing yards last week topped the 59 rushing yards they combined to produce in their first two games combined, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. Rudolph should have a better passing game returning home with a start under his belt. Cincinnati ranks 29th in the NFL with an opponent’s Passer Rating of 136.7. The Bengals have yet to force an incompletion when the opposing quarterback is working from a clean pocket — and these quarterbacks are 13.6 Yards-Per-Reception in those situations which is 30th in the NFL. Cincinnati is allowing 407 total YPG this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. The Bengals suffered a -2 net turnover margin last week while falling behind by a 14-0 halftime score to the Bills. Cincinnati has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin — and they have filled to cover the point spread in a decisive 39 of their last 62 games after trailing by at least 14 points at halftime of their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 clashes with the Steelers. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on Monday Night Football. In this contest between two desperate teams looking to win their first game of the season, look for the Steelers to earn a decisive win. 10* NFL Cincinnati-Pittsburgh ESPN Special with the Pittsburgh Steelers (278) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (275) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (276). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-0) looks to continue their winning ways after their 31-6 win over Miami as a 22-point favorite last week. New Orleans (2-1) comes off a 33-27 upset victory at Seattle as a 5-point favorite.

THE SITUATION: The Cowboys offense amped up in the second half of last season after they acquired wide receiver Amari Cooper from the Raiders as he offered the team the reliable weapon in the passing game that opened things up for running back Ezekiel Elliott. The elevation of Kellen Moore to offensive coordinator has now opened up the playbook to better take advantage of quarterback Dak Prescott’s talents. Prescott has passed for 920 yards in his first three games with nine touchdown passes. The deeper metrics are bullish on Prescott as well. Prescott is second in the NFL by averaging 9.8 Yards-Per-Passing Attempt. He is completing 74.5% of his passes — and his adjusted completion rate of 81.4% is the best in the league. Dallas has scored at least 31 points in all three of their games and they are second in the NFL in Expected Points Added Per Play. Furthermore, with the weapons Prescott has at his disposal in what is now a diverse offense with added pieces like Tony Pollard, Reggie Cobb and the (thankful) return of tight end Jason Witten from the television booth, the Cowboys lead the NFL in 3rd and 4th Down Success Rates. Needless to say, Jerry Jones team is at its best when their offense is humming. Dallas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in two straight contests. Furthermore, the Cowboys have generated at least 474 yards of offense in all three of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 400 yards in three straight games. They should build off the momentum of their easy win over the Dolphins as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Dallas is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The defense has also been quite good for this team as they are allowing only 14.6 PPG along with just 336.0 total YPG. The Cowboys defense has registered 20 hits on the quarterback this season which should start producing more than the five sacks they have tallied this year. Additionally, Dallas has not allowed more than a touchdown in the first half all season — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 7 points in the first half of two straight games. New Orleans may be due for a letdown after their dominant win on the road in Seattle as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win. Teddy Bridgewater may have won thirteen of his last nineteen games as a starting quarterback but I think he limits how this Saints offense can operate. He did not attempt a pass of more than 20 yards last week. And with him playing in seven of the team’s twelve quarters this season, New Orleans is just 21st in the league by averaging 339.7 total YPG. But perhaps the more surprising aspect of this Saints team has been the disappointing play of their defense. The Football Outsiders metrics’ ranks New Orleans 28th in the league in Defensive DVOA. They upset the Seahawks last week despite getting outgained by 249 net yards after they surrendered 514 total yards with 450 of those yards coming in the air. New Orleans is 30th in the NFL by allowing 301.7 passing YPG. The Saints have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards. Furthermore, while Seattle averaged 6.76 Yards-Per-Play last week, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 home games after allowing at least 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in their last game. The Saints benefitted from a punt return for a touchdown along with a fumble recovered for a touchdown — but special teams and defensive touchdowns are difficult to rely on to overcome massive yardage deficits. This New Orleans team has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Will hosting this game in the Superdome make the difference for the Saints? They have failed to cover the point spread in their last 5 games at home. Dallas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as the favorite. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (275) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (274) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (273). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-3) is still looking for their first win of the season after they lost in Green Bay last Sunday by a 27-16 score as a 7-point underdog. Jacksonville (1-2) comes off a 20-7 upset victory at home to Tennessee as a 1.5-point underdog back on September 19th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: It is surprising that Denver has not won a game considering that they are outgaining their opponents by +28.0 net YPG. The Broncos controlled the clock for 35:34 minutes last week at Lambeau Field and were only outgained by 2 yards in that 11-point loss. In their lone game at home against Chicago this season, Denver dominated the Bears in yardage by a 372 to 273 margin yet still lost by a 16-14 score. As if these results represent enough of an outlier, the Broncos are doing well in the yardage battle despite not registering a single turnover or a single sack in their first three games this season. Considering they have Von Miller and Bradley Chubb who combined for 26.5 sacks last year along with a defensive guru in first-year head coach Vic Fangio, I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods in this game for this Denver defense who is still playing well this year. The Broncos are allowing only 22.3 PPG while limiting their opponents to just 314.0 total YPG without the benefit of a turnover nor sack. On offense, Denver is doing a good job of controlling the line of scrimmage behind their one-two punch in their backfield of Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay. The Broncos lead the NFL by averaging 7.61 plays per drive — and this remains a reliable formula for success. Expect Fangio to dial up a game plan to make life very difficult for the Jaguars’ rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew. The Titans had a short week to prepare for the former Washington State quarterback last week but the Broncos defensive coaching staff has almost three full games of game tape on him now running the Jacksonville offense with ten days to dissect. Minshew is not mobile — and the Jaguars lack dynamic receivers so do not surprised if the sacks finally start coming in for this Denver defense. Jacksonville upset Tennessee despite being outgained by 38 net yards — they only gained 292 yards of offense with Minshew under center. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games after a double-digit victory. And while Jacksonville had a 14-0 halftime lead in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after enjoying a halftime lead of at least two touchdowns. Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 2-5-1 ATS. This team is getting outgained by -27.0 net YPG this year. They also are just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Run defense has been an issue for this team as they are allowing 109.3 rushing YPG which is just 16th in the NFL — and opposing rushers are averaging 4.0 Yards-Per-Carry while scoring five times this year. To compound matters, star cornerback Jalen Ramsey has been a distraction all week with his litany of excuses that he has deployed to miss practice. He still wants to be traded and his status for this game is questionable.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville was the desperate team two Thursdays ago — and they won that home game over the Titans. Now it is Denver who needs the victory — and this is a franchise with its first 0-3 start since 1999. Look for this solid Broncos team to finally earn a win by running the football combining with a dominant defensive performance. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Denver Broncos (274) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (273). Best of luck for us — Frank (and check out his 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month to close his Sunday card).

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (255) plus the points versus the New York Giants (256). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-3) remained winless this season after their 31-15 loss to Chicago on Monday as a 5-point underdog. New York (1-2) looks to build off their 32-31 upset win in Tampa Bay on Sunday as a 5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDSKINS PLUS THE POINTS: Washington will be playing with desperation having not yet won a game this season. Rumors coming from a Washington Post article suggests that head coach Jay Gruden will be fired immediately after this game if the Skins do not win this game. I do expect a strong effort from this team. Washington has covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. I would not sign off on this game without first getting up early today to get the latest updates on the injury report as this team has been a M*A*S*H unit. I don’t love the news about their offensive line — but quarterback Case Keenum has been upgraded to probable with his foot injury along and even  Colt McCoy could be available to play at quarterback in this game as he has been upgraded to probable after suffering that season-ending leg injury last year. Remember, this was a team that was in first place in the NFC East last season before Alex Smith suffered his season-ending injury. And all three of the Skins losses this season have been to teams that made the playoffs last year. While injuries have really hurt this year, the roster is not bad at all. Washington has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. I am not quite ready to put Daniel Jones in the Hall of Fame after last week’s spectacular performance where he completed 23 of 36 passes for 336 yards with two touchdown passes. Jones’ mobility was like mana from heaven for head coach Pat Shurmer — but the Skins will be ready for his willingness to move with his feet this week. Getting Jones down on tape in a real NFL game will help the Washington defense this week (and they have a much better defense than the Buccaneers). Jones will miss star running back Saquon Barkley who will be out for at least a few weeks. That is not good news for a team that is just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a point spread win. The defense remains a significant problem for this team after allowing the Bucs to generate 499 yards last week. 355 of those yards came in the air — and New York has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games after allowing at least 350 passing yards. The Giants have also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. This New York defense is last in the NFL by allowing 10.5 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt — and 24.2% of the completed passes they have allowed have been of at least 15 yards which is also the worst mark in the league. Now the Giants return home where they are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. New York has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the month of September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow NFC East opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Washington is injured — but so are the Giants with them being without linebackers Alec Ogletree and Tae Davis being downgraded to being out for this game. Expect a close game where the Skins may pull the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Washington Redskins (255) plus the points versus the New York Giants (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (101) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (102). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-2) has lost two straight games after their 27-24 upset loss at home to Detroit on Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Green Bay (3-0) remained unbeaten on Sunday with their 27-16 win over Denver as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia will be desperate tonight to not fall to 1-3 this season. They have suffered two straight upset losses — both decided by one scoring possession — after they lost to the Falcons in Atlanta the week before for Sunday Night Football by a 24-20 score where they were laying a 1-point favorite. Injuries have battered this team — they will be without wide receiver DeSean Jackson, defensive tackle Marlin Jackson, linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill, and cornerback Ronald Darby for this game. Dealing with injuries is not new for head coach Doug Pederson and his coaching staff as the Eagles lost 198.5 adjusted games to injury last season which was the most in the NFL. Yet this Philly roster is one of the deepest in the league — and the quality of their overall roster helped them return to the playoffs last season to avoid becoming the ninth team in the last nineteen seasons to miss the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl the previous season. Philadelphia will be getting wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey back for this game which will help after quarterback Carson Wentz saw seven of his passes dropped last week against the Lions. The Eagles dominated the Lions last week by outgaining them by +86 net yards. Philly has been tough with their run defense this season as they have held their three opponents to just 57 rushing YPG on only 2.9 Yards-Per-Carry. The Eagles have not allowed more than 86 rushing yards in any of their three games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in at least two straight games. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games away from home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. Green Bay benefited from a +3 net turnover margin last week in their win over the Broncos — that made up for them only outgaining the Denver by 2 yards. But the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread win. On the short week, the Eagles have a significant edge with their coaching staff preparing for this game versus the Green Bay rookie head coach Matt LaFleur. Defenses have been adjusting to the Packers in the second half as they have only scored 13 of their 58 points this year in the second half. Green Bay has scored 21 and 17 points in the first half of their last two contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 36 games after scoring at least 17 points in the first half of their last two games. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has not yet clicked with the LaFleur’s system as the Packers are scoring only 19.3 PPG while averaging just 286.7 total YPG which is 28th in the league. The Green Bay defense has been a pleasant surprise this season — but they have also had Mitchell Trubisky, Kirk Cousins, and Joe Flacco as their opposing quarterbacks. The Packers are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games against fellow NFC foes.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has won their four Thursday night games with Pederson as their head coach. The Eagles won three of those games outright as the underdog — and they have covered the point spread in all 4 of those games. Expect a close game with Philly having the chance to pull out this game even in Lambeau Field. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (101) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (490) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (489). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-21 loss at home to Dallas as a 6-point underdog last week. Chicago (1-1) looks to build off their 16-14 win in Denver last Sunday as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears are precarious road favorites when playing more than 4 points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They were outgained by 99 net yards last week against the (winless) Broncos while losing the first down battle by a 27 to 16 margin but still managed to pull out that game. The biggest problem for this team has been with their offense as they have managed only one touchdown. Third-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky looks like he has taken a step back this season — he is completing only 58.3% of his passes. Perhaps in what is more telling, head coach Matt Nagy does not seem to trust Trubisky to move the ball with his arm given his play-calling in the first two weeks of the season. The Bears are averaging a mere 265.3 total YPG this season — and defenses are quickly adapting to the lack of a vertical passing attack given Nagy’s apparent discomfort in enabling Trubisky to take chances down the field. Trubisky was just 16 of 27 last week for 120 yards — and he only ran the ball once for 8 yards. Chicago’s offense was entirely dependent on their ground game as they rushed the ball 29 times for 153 yards — but they are just 13-37-1 ATS in their last 51 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Of concern was also the Bears defense as they gave up 372 yards including 282 yards in the air which is not a good sign for this team. They are just 19-42-1 ATS in their last 62 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Additionally, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games in the month of September. Washington is a desperate team that needs to put together four straight quarters of good play after blowing leads in two straight games. Look for this team to rally with their most complete effort of the season tonight. The Skins have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September. They need to play better on defense after allowing 474 total yards with the Cowboys averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Play. Washington has covered the point spread in 8 straight games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.5 YPP. The Skins are still capable when playing at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in their last 5 games against the Skins. Expect a close game from a Washington team that really needs to get a win. 10* NFL Chicago-Washington ESPN Special with the Washington Redskins (490) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (489). Best of luck for us — Frank. (Follow Frank on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper post regarding what team “identity” means and its connection to have a method for handicapping.)

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (487) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (488). THE SITUATION:  Los Angeles (2-0) looks to build off their 27-9 win over New Orleans last week as a 2-point favorite. Cleveland (1-1) comes off a 23-3 win in New York against the Jets on Monday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Now this team returns home with huge expectations this season given the accumulation of talent they have acquired on both sides of the football. But I worry that this organization has put the cart ahead of the horse when it comes to building a winning culture. With the personalities of Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham (among many) along with a rookie head coach in Freddie Kitchens, it is a volatile mix in Cleveland. They have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Browns are also just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning record. And while this Cleveland team has a very good defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Rams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. This team goes back not he road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games.

FINAL TAKE: Look for this to be a close game before the Rams’ eventually pull away. I don’t like the situation for the Browns — playing this game on a short week from Monday Night with the weight of the world on their shoulders with their thirsty fan base. The Rams have a significant edge in coaching with defensive coordinator Wade Phillips along with head coach Sean McVay battling wits with rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens with his coordinators, Todd Monken and Steve Wilks (who I like — but Phillips is the Dean of defensive coaches in the NFL). With LA also enjoying an experience edge with a host of big games under their belts, look for them to pull out the win. 10* NFL LA Rams-Cleveland NBC-TV Special with the Los Angeles Rams (487) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (485) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (486). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-2) remained winless this season after their 28-26 upset loss at home to Seattle as a 4-point favorite. San Francisco (2-0) comes off a 41-17 blowout victory at Cincinnati last week as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh was beating the Seahawks before Big Ben Roethlisberger suffered his season-ending elbow injury in that game. Now this organization is in a desperate situation with their franchise quarterback out and with them winless so far this season with a challenging trip out west on deck against an undefeated team. But the reason why we should have confidence that this football team has not thrown in the towel is that they traded valuable draft picks this week for Dolphins’ cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick who will offer the team an immediate upgrade in their secondary. The Steelers have a 10-6 straight-up record in their last sixteen games played without Roethlisberger — they are essentially a playoff team without him still. This team feels good enough about backup Mason Rudolph running the offense that they traded away their other young backup in Joshua Dobbs after the preseason. Rudolph completed 12 of 19 passes last week against Seattle for 112 yards with two touchdown passes. He will have the benefit of a strong offensive line as well. Look for the Steelers to rally around each other and head coach Mike Tomlin in this moment of adversity — they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 43 games after an upset loss. Pittsburgh has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, the Steelers have covered the point spread in a decisive 62 of their last 103 road games as the underdog — and this includes them covering the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as the dog. And while Pittsburgh has allowed 61 points this season, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 25 points in their last game. San Francisco returns home after a successful two-game road trip out east with wins in Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. But this team has not enjoyed much of a home-field advantage at Levi Stadium where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 home games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. This is a young team that does not have much of a track record handling success — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games as the favorite. Even without running back Tevin Coleman, the 49ers rushed for 259 yards last week against the Bengals defense — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards. Coleman will still be out this week with his ankle injury — but the bigger concern is with the fibula injury to left tackle Joe Staley that will keep him out for the next six to eight weeks. San Fran also has injuries on their defensive line after allowing the Bengals to pass for 291 yards. The Niners have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is committing too many penalties right now — they are averaging 10 penalties per game which is accounting for 80 Yards-Per-Game. The 49ers may win this game — but this should be a dog fight against a desperate but veteran Steelers team with a winning culture. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (485) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (486). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (479) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (480). THE SITUATION: Carolina (0-2) looks to bounce-back from their 20-14 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 6.5-point underdog back on September 12th. Arizona (0-1-1) looks to rebound from their 23-17 loss at Baltimore last Sunday as a 13-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a gut check game for this Carolina team after also losing their opening game of the season at home to the Los Angeles Rams by just a field goal. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two games in a row at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing those two games at home by 7 points or less. Carolina has also covered the point spread in 35 of their last 57 games after a point spread loss under head coach Ron Rivera. The team will be without quarterback Cam Newton who is being given time off given a bevy of injuries including his leg and his shoulder. Frankly, the Panthers will likely be better off with Kyle Allen under center since he is at least healthy. Newton is at his most effective when he offers a legitimate running option but his bum ankle has neutralized that part of his game as he only had one rushing attempt last week. Newton’s shoulder injury has negatively impacted his accuracy — and he has not thrown a touchdown pass in his last 178 pass attempts. Look for offensive coordinator Norv Turner to have a nice game plan for his second-year QB in Allen.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (464) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (463). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 24-20 upset loss in Atlanta last Sunday night as a 1-point favorite. Detroit (1-0-1) looks to build off a 13-10 upset victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Detroit should be 2-0 if not for their 4th quarter collapse in Arizona where they allowed rookie quarterback Kyler Murray to rally his team from a 24-6 4th quarter deficit to eke out a tie. The Lions then upset the Chargers playing in an early 1 PM ET kickoff game despite getting outgained by a 424 to 339 yardage margin. Detroit is likely due for a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a narrow win at home by no more than a field goal. The Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 29 of their last 43 road games after a win by 6 points or less. Detroit has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The biggest issue with this team is their lack of playmakers on both sides of the football. Quarterback Matthew Stafford remains solid if not spectacular and a bit of a disappointment as a former number one pick in the league. He lacks targets in the passing game that demands a double-team. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Detroit’s defense has been built of capable playmakers but none strike fear in an offense. They are just 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Furthermore, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow NFC opponents. Philadelphia will be looking to get back their winning ways after laying an egg in Atlanta. The Eagles are dealing with a host of injuries including their top two wide receivers in DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery are both likely out for this game and defensive tackle Tim Jernigan out for four to six weeks. But this Philly team has one of the deepest rosters in the NFL — particularly on both lines of scrimmage. Quarterback Carson Wentz still has tight end Zack Ertz as well as a deep cadre of running backs. The Eagles enter this game 2nd in the NFL in 3rd down offense. And while they surrendered 310 passing yards last week to the Falcons, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 250 passing yards in their last game. Philly did hold the Falcons to just 58 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Eagles have held their first two opponents to just 42 rushing YPG which is third-best in the NFL. Detroit has become a run-first offense under head coach Matt Patricia with Stafford becoming more of a game-manager. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. And don’t underestimate the value of the inside knowledge defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz possesses on Stafford after serving as his first head coach in his tour of duty as the Lions head coach from 2009 to 2013.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Philadelphia. The Eagles would likely be laying at least a touchdown if not for their injuries. While I don’t love the fact that they did not scrimmage in pads on Wednesday, the effect of that is probably overvalued. The Philadelphia depth along with their edges in coaching should lead them to a relatively easy victory. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (464) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (463). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (302) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (301). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (0-2) also looks to rebound from a 13-12 loss at Houston on Sunday as a 7.5-point underdog. Tennessee (1-1) looks to bounce-back from their 19-17 upset loss at home to Indianapolis last week as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: Jacksonville finds themselves in a desperate situation after losing the first two games of their season. This team is seventeen months removed from playing in the AFC Championship Game. The Jaguars took a few steps back last season with a 5-11 mark — but they suffered four net close losses in games decided by one scoring possession. They were only outgained by -9.4 net Yards-Per-Game last season which generally equates with teams finishing with a 7-9 record. A plethora of injuries on offense along with a -12 net turnover margin (tied for 29th in the league) did not help matters. Jacksonville remains an elite defensive team that allowed only 19.8 PPG last year (4th in the NFL) while giving up just 311.4 total YPG (5th in the league). The Jaguars held Deshaun Watson and the prolific Texans passing attack to only 137 passing yards while registering four sacks along the way. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a game where neither team scored nor allowed more than 14 points. Jacksonville has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less — and this includes them covering the point spread in three straight games after a loss by a field goal or less on the road. Jacksonville is playing with a backup quarterback Gardner Minshew who was solid last week by completing 23 of 33 passes for 213 yards with a touchdown pass. While I think the former Washington State quarterback has potential to be successful in the league, expect a heavy dose of running back Leonard Fournette tonight. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss to an AFC South rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a loss at home by 3 points or less. The Titans managed only 242 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Colts despite playing on their home field. Quarterback Marcus Mariota completed 19 of 28 passes which is efficient — but they generated just 154 passing yards. Tennessee seems to have abandoned all hope in even demonstrating a drop-back passing game with Mariota — and that likely means that the whispers to have Ryan Tannehill replace him under center are legitimate since at least the former Dolphins quarterback can matriculate the football down the field. Defenses are already adapting to these tendencies by crowding the box to slow down the horizontal passing game along with the rushing attack led by Derrick Henry. The ineptness of the Titans offense is illustrated by their failures on 3rd down — they have converted only three 3rd down plays in twenty chances this season. These are not encouraging developments for an offense that scored only 19.4 PPG last season (27th in the NFL) while averaging just 312.6 total YPG (25th in the NFL). Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They also are just 16-34-3 ATS in their last 53 games again teams with a losing redo. And in their last 5 games against fellow teams from the AFC South, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Jacksonville to play the Jaguars. 10* NFL Tennessee-Jacksonville NFL Network Special with the Jacksonville Jaguars (302) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Jets (290) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (289). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) looks to rebound from an upset loss in their 17-16 setback at home to Buffalo where they were laying 2.5-points. Cleveland (0-1) also looks to bounce-back from their embarrassing 43-13 upset loss at home to Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: The Browns entered this season with sky-high expectations after being just two years removed from a winless season. Despite all the talent on the roster, these players simply cannot fiat a culture change without going through the process of learning how to win games. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 46 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss at home. The Browns have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss by at least 10 points as a home favorite. Cleveland was completely undisciplined last week as they committed eighteen penalties that produced another 182 negative yards accompanying a -3 net turnover margin, the Titans were able to put up 43 points on the board. Facing an uninspiring opponent dealing with a bevy of injuries may not be the assignment that scares this overconfident team straight. As it is, the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as the favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points. And in their last 8 appearances on Monday Night Football, the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games. The Jets are a hot mess of M*A*S*H Unit right now with a couple of suspensions making this attrition even worse. Quarterback Sam Darnold is out weeks while he loses weight dealing with mono. Wide receiver Quincy Enunwa is on Injured Reserve with a neck issue. Three starters on the offensive line are questionable. Trevor Siemian will be the starting quarterback tonight — and he does have 24 career starts under his belt with his time in Denver. Running back Le’Veon Bell is dealing with a bum shoulder — but he has been upgraded to probable tonight. The defense is also dealing with some tough injuries headlined by linebacker C.J. Mosely and rookie defensive tackle Quinnen Williams out with a groin and an ankle. But I still expect an inspired effort from this group led by defensive coordinator Gregg Williams who will be chomping at the bit to have his defense go after the quarterback he served as the interim head with last season. The Jets have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games after a loss at home — and they have coved the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss by 3 points or less at home. New York has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a dog getting 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: This will be an emotional night for the Browns with them facing their ex-interim head coach in Williams — and this is also Odell Beckham’s first return to MetLife Stadium since being traded by the Giants in the offseason. This is also a must-win game for Cleveland with a brutal stretch of games coming up against the Rams, then a trip to Baltimore and San Francisco before hosting Seattle and New England and then a trip to Denver — so a loss tonight puts them in a very precarious situation. I don’t think this team has the maturity to convincingly win a game on the road against another desperate team. Expect a close (and ugly) game. 10* NFL Cleveland-NY Jets ESPN Special with the New York Jets (290) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (289). Best of luck for us — Frank (follow on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper where he looks back to explain why he, fortunately, passed on a tempting CFB situation on Saturday that perhaps looked too good to be true).

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (288) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (287). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 28-12 loss at Minnesota last week as a 3.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (1-0) won their opening game of the season last week with their 32-27 win over Washington as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINT(S): Atlanta should respond with a strong effort after getting routed in the first half of that game by a 21-0 score. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after trailing by at least three touchdowns in their last game. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after failing to score at least 15 points in their last game. While putting their rookie right guard, Chris Lindstrom, on Injured Reserve derails some of the plans this team had with their offensive line, the Falcons should get their offense cranking back at home in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Quarterback Matt Ryan oversaw a potent offense last season even with the deficiencies on their offensive line. The Falcons were 6th in the NFL in total offense by averaging 389.1 total YPG — and they have a healthy Devonta Freeman back in their backfield after he missed all but two games. The Falcons were also burdened with the third-worst starting field position in the NFL with their average starting point at their 26.3-yard line. Atlanta averaged 37.97 Yards-Per-Drive which was 4th best in the NFL. Ryan was more effective at home where he completed 72.7% of his passes while averaging 8.82 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt — and he tossed 18 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 34 games as a home dog getting up to a field goal. Philadelphia has now failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of September.  The Philly pass defense was torched by Skins’ quarterback Case Keenum who passed for 380 yards against them. This is an area of concern for the Eagles after they ranked 30th in the NFL last season by allowing 269.3 passing YPG. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 total yards in their last game. Those are ominous numbers when facing this Falcons team who were 4th in the NFL last year by averaging 290.8 passing YPG. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games are allowing at least 350 passing yards in their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: The Falcons were ravaged by injuries last year with eight major contributors to the team hitting the Injured Reserve list at one point in the season. With head coach Dan Quinn now on the hot seat in his fifth year in Atlanta, look for this team to play inspired football tonight. 10* NFL Philadelphia-Atlanta NBC-TV Special with the Atlanta Falcons (288) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (283) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (284). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-0) looks to build off their 30-27 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 1.5-point favorite. New Orleans (1-0) comes off a dramatic last-second 30-28 win over Houston at home as a 6.5-point favorite on Monday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: The Saints were fortunate to pull out that victory over the Texans — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. And while their offense generated 510 yards of offense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Despite his 370 passing yards in that game, the ole eyeball test has me worried that quarterback Drew Brees has lost arm strength which diminishes his capacities to throw the long ball — and that allows defenses to creep in a bit closer. Brees has also been a different quarterback when playing on the road versus at home in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. While Brees averaged 321.6 passing YPG last year with an 11.1 Yards-in-the-Air Average and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 21:1, those numbers plummet on the road where he averaged just 217.6 passing YPG with just a 7.0 Yards-in-the-Air average and just 11 touchdown passes. The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. Jared Goff, on the other hand, gets to play his first game back at home since he led his team to the 26-23 victory in New Orleans in the NFC Championship Game — and he plays much better on his home field. Goff was 7-1 at home last year while averaging 342.1 passing YPG with a 116.7 Passer Rating while passing for 22 touchdowns and just three interceptions. The Rams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against fellow NFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of September.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints will have revenge on their minds for this game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against the Rams. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in Los Angeles against the Rams. 20* NFL New Orleans-LA Rams Fox-TV Special with the Los Angeles Rams (283) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (278) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (277). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 21-20 narrow loss at Seattle last week as a 9.5-point underdog. San Francisco (1-0) looks to build off their 31-17 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Cincinnati had a moral victory by outplaying the Seahawks in their own stadium as they outgained them by a whopping 429 to 233 yardage margin while holding on to the football for 35:50 minutes of that game. A -2 net turnover margin was what held the Bengals back in that game. Now this team returns home with renewed optimism in the post-Marvin Lewis era under new head coach Zac Taylor. The offensive-minded head coach did a great job to put quarterback Andy Dalton into positions to succeed as he completed 35 of 51 passes for 418 yards which was a career-high. That is a good sign for this team moving forward as they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread win. Additionally, this team has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bengals defense played well in shutting down the Seahawks ground game — Seattle wants to run the ball to control the Time of Possession yet that rushed for a mere 72 yards. That is another good sign for Cincy as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. San Francisco has stayed out east this week making their base camp in lovely Youngstown. I worry about how younger teams respond to being on the road for two straight weeks. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 50 road games coming off a victory by at least two touchdowns. San Francisco has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. The Niners are a trendy pick to see a significant improvement in their win-loss record this season — but quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo did not have a good training camp and he continued to look rusty coming off knee surgery last week by passing for only 166 yards on 18 of 27 passing against the suspect Buccaneers defense. San Francisco generated only 256 yards of offense — but they scored two touchdown passes from pick-sixes at the hands of Jameis Winston. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams have injuries at running back with Tevin Coleman out for San Francisco with an ankle and Joe Mixon questionable with an ankle. Mixon will be a game-time decision as he wants to take the field. The Bengals do have a quality running back still available in Giovani Bernard. Home field should make the difference with a big crowd expected to provide new energy for the Bengals who have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Kickoff with the Cincinnati Bengals (278) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (276) minus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (275). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 33-3 loss at New England last Sunday night as a 5.5-point underdog. Seattle (1-0) looks to build off their 21-20 win at home over Cincinnati as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh should respond with a strong effort after being embarrassed on national television. The Steelers have won eight of their nine games in the Ben Roethlisberger era straight-up after enduring a loss by at least 20 points. That number does not take into account the point spread — but it does point to the resolve this team should have this afternoon under his leadership. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a loss by at least 21 points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road by at least three touchdowns. I just think they got caught by a good team with a great defense — and playing in Foxboro did not help matters as that is a place where they have always struggled in the Roethlisberger and head coach Mike Tomlin era. The Steelers have a good defense that should take the next step this season after they drafted linebacker Devin Bush out of Michigan who gives them the speed in the middle of the field that they have lacked since the career-ending injury to Ryan Shazier. Pittsburgh allowed the Patriots to generate 465 yards last week with a 7.01 Yards-Per-Play clip — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 7.0 YPP. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. There is a concern that JuJu Smith-Shuster does not have the skills to take over the number one receiving job for the departed Antonio Brown. I think he will be fine — especially when Pittsburgh gets their rushing attack going. The Steelers only ran the ball 13 times last week for a meager 32 rushing yards. Look for Pittsburgh to get back to running the football behind their big offensive line — they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 50 yards. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams from the NFC. Seattle faces a situational challenge having to fly to the east coast to play in the 1 PM ET window of games. Head coach Pete Carroll has done a good job of preparing his team for the body clock issues of these early Sunday games out east. However, the Seahawks have been poor starters under Carroll when it comes to meeting point spread expectations in the early part of the season. Seattle is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the month of September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in the second week of the season. Furthermore, the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 road games in the month of September. They were fortunate to escape last Sunday with a victory considering that they were outgained by a 429 to 233 yardage margin. Cincinnati dominated the Time of Possession — an aspect of the game that Carroll finds very important — as they held the ball for almost 36 minutes of that game. Seattle was able to survive given a +2 net turnover margin — yet they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after enjoying at least a +2 net turnover margin in their last game. It is not a good sign for the Seahawks defense that they allowed Andy Dalton to shred them apart for 418 passing yards with him averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Passing-Attempt even without an injured A.J. Green at wide receiver. Dalton had a Passer Rating of 143.9 when targeting Seahawks cornerback Tre Flowers — expect James Washington or Donte Moncrief to have a big game this afternoon depending on who Seattle elects Flowers to cover (I doubt they will have him assigned to Shuster). Seattle is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games gains teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Pittsburgh to play the Steelers. Despite their 10-6 record last year, they were a team that did not outgain their opponents in total yardage last year as they averaged 353.3 total YPG while allowing the same number. Look for an angry Pittsburgh team to take out their frustrations against the traveling Seahawks. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (276) minus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (102). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 31-17 upset loss at home to San Francisco on Sunday. Carolina (0-1) comes off a 30-27 loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams where they closed as a small +1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay should respond with a strong effort tonight as they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Bucs actually outgained the 49ers last week by 39 net yards by it was a -2 net turnover margin stemming from three interceptions from Jameis Winston that made the difference in that game. San Francisco scored two touchdowns from interceptions in that game. First-year head coach Bruce Arians inherited a team that was probably much better than their 5-11 record suggests. The Buccaneers were ravaged by injuries last season as they lost 109.3 adjusted games to injury including 92.0 games on defense which was the highest in NFL history according to that metric. Turnovers put this team too far in a hole last year as well as their -18 net turnover margin was second-to-last in the league. Tampa Bay had a -3 net close losses in their games decided by one scoring possession — and they outgained their opponents by +32.1 net YPG which typically translates into a 9-7 season. One of Arians' main assignments is to get Winston to reduce his turnovers so that has absolutely been a topic of a few conversations this week. The encouraging aspect of that loss to San Francisco was the improved play of the defense under first-year defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. After ranking 27th in the NFL by allowing 383.4 total YPG, Bowles defense limited the 49ers to only 256 total yards. Arians and Bowles also significantly remodeled this defense with draft picks and free-agent acquisitions headlined by bringing in Ndamukong Suh. The Buccaneers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in Week Two of a new season. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. Quarterback Cam Newton was not very impressive in that loss as he completed 25 of 38 passes for just 239 yards with zero touchdown passes and an interception while failing to gain positive rushes with his legs. While head coach Ron Rivera claims Newton is completely healthy, he did injure his leg in the preseason which might be slowing him down now. Furthermore, Newton may not be fully recovered from the shoulder problems from last year which severely limited his effectiveness in the second half of last season — there was talk at one point of the team shutting down their franchise quarterback for the entire season like Indianapolis did with Andrew Luck two years ago. Newton enjoyed a sensational month of October in his first season under offensive coordinator Norv Turner before things went south when the team lost seven of their last eight games with Newton’s arm strength limited with his shoulder injury. But according to the DVOA metric used by Football Outsiders, the Panthers have only ranked in the top-ten in offensive efficiency just once in their last five seasons with their average finish being 16th in the NFL — so this will likely remain a middling offense. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the NFC. The Panthers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a Thursday night.

FINAL TAKE: The road team has covered the point spread in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. The underdog has also covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these NFC South rivals. Expect a close game between these two teams. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-Carolina NFL Network Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). THE SITUATION: Oakland (0-0) looks to improve from their 4-12 campaign last season. Denver (0-0) also looks to better themselves this year after suffering a 6-10 record last season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: It should be an energetic environment in the Coliseum in what will be the last home opener for these fans before the franchise relocates to Las Vegas. Oakland is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 appearances on Monday Night Football. This should be an improved football team in the second year under head coach Jon Gruden with groups usually making a big jump in Year Two under new systems. I also expect this group of players to rally around each other to play inspired football in the wake of the Antonio Brown debacle. It is hard to call his departure to New England to be a big loss since he never really practiced with the team in the preseason. Tyrell Williams was a nice pickup from the Los Angeles Chargers which upgrades the wide receiver corps from last season and tight end Darren Waller looks poised to enjoy a breakout season after a strong training camp. But I expect the gem in this offense to be rookie running back Josh Jacobs who was sensational for Alabama in what was often a reserved role under head coach Nick Saban. Look for Gruden to fully unleash Jacobs now. The Raiders have also covered the point spread in 3 of the last 4 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. Denver is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in the month of September. The Broncos should improve under new head coach Vic Fangio who has finally received a chance to be a head coach. Fangio is one of the best defensive coaches in the business but it often takes a year for his players to fully embrace his complex schemes. The offense is also undergoing a system change with first-year offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello installing a run/play-action based attack. But the former 49ers’ quarterback coach’s highest experience of calling plays was at the FCS level so there may be some growing pains early on as he gets comfortable with new quarterback Joe Flacco. The hope of team president John Elway is that Flacco will offer the veteran leadership under center that he once did for this franchise which was then replicated with Peyton Manning leading the team a third Super Bowl championship. But Flacco has seen is adjusted net yards per passing attempt decline in each of his last four seasons which raises concerns that the 34-year old has seen a decline in his skills. His lack of mobility in the pocket is also at odds with where many offenses are moving in the modern NFL. Flacco will be working under a retooled offensive line that is replacing 36 starts from last year’s group. The hope is that offensive line coach Mike Munchak will coach this group up — but there are questions regarding the talent level of this unit with left tackle Garrett Bolles being a disappointment in his first two seasons and second-year center Connor McGovern coming off a disappointing rookie season. These are all troubling issues for a team that failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road. Denver also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the AFC West — and they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 appearances on Monday Night Football. Additionally, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when not laying more than 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with Oakland. With the Raiders motivated by the home crowd and to prove themselves with the Brown drama behind them, look for this team to play inspired football tonight. 25* AFC West Game of the Month with the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (480) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (479). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (0-0) enter this season coming off a 13-3 campaign that ended in bitter disappointment with the no-call pass interference in the NFC Championship Game that eventually ended in a 26-23 loss in overtime to deny their opportunity to return to the Super Bowl. Houston (0-0) takes the field again after an 11-5 season that ended with a 21-7 loss at home to Indianapolis in the first round of the AFC playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans should be very fired up to get the bad taste out of their (and their fans) mouth from that disastrous finish in the NFC Championship Game. The Saints scored 31.6 PPG at home last year while averaging 391.6 total YPG — and they outscored their opponents by +7.1 PPG. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when laying 3.5 to 7 points. While it looked like quarterback Drew Brees tired last year as the season went on, he was on fire for the first half of the year as they won ten of their first eleven games. The Saints have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in the first half of the regular season. Yet this is also a team that has lost five straight opening games in a row. After getting upset at home last year to Tampa Bay, this New Orleans team should be very focused to start this season with a decisive victory. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. I like the trades they made in the preseason to bring on Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills in the Jadeveon Clowney move — while they might have mortgaged their future, they improved their team this year. However, it might take some time for Tunsil to get completely in-synch with his mates on the offensive line along with quarterback Deshaun Watson. The Texans are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Houston has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games played in a dome.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games played on Monday Night Football. Look for the Saints to win comfortably. 10* NFL Houston-New Orleans ESPN Special with the New Orleans Saints (480) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (478) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (477). THE SITUATION: New England (0-0) lifted the Lombardi Trophy once again last year with their 13-3 win over the Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh (0-0) looks to get back to the postseason after they were left on the outside looking in after a 9-6-1 campaign last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England starts slow in September, right? That was my first reaction when looking at this matchup from afar. But let’s look closer as to how the Patriots have faired in their five previous openers — all at home — after winning the Super Bowl in the previous season. And these are all in the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era, of course. In a situation very similar to this one, New England covered the point spread as a 6-point favorite hosting Houston in 2018 (after their comeback victory over Atlanta in the Super Bowl) by a 27-20 score despite the storyline of Texans’ head coach Bill O’Brien knowing all the Belichick secret sauce. The Patriots were clocked in 2017 by Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs by a 42-27 score (as an 8-point favorite) after they defeated Seattle in the Super Bowl (when the Seahawks did not continue to feed Marshawn Lynch as the goal line). In 2005, New England beat Oakland by a 30-20 score as a 7.5-point favorite. In 2004, the Patriots beat Indianapolis with Peyton Manning by a 27-24 score laying 3 points. Finally, in 2002, New England upset the Steelers as a 2.5-point underdog in the idyllic days when the conventional wisdom was that the Pats were fortunate to upset the St. Louis Rams behind a young QB that was only drafted in the 6th round. That makes New England 3-1-1 ATS in their previous five home openers when celebrating a Super Bowl win. While that does not make us zombies to take the Patriots in this spot, it should make us take serious pause regarding the “start slow” theory for the defending champs. In fact, New England is 27-22 ATS in their last forty-nine games in the first two weeks of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 40 of their last 58 home games when laying 3.5 to 7 points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when laying no more than a touchdown. Additionally, the Patriots have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Pittsburgh is actually the slower starting team under head coach Mike Tomlin. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of September — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 opening weeks to a new season. The Steelers have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 road games in the month of September. The assumption with this team is that the offense will be just fine without Antonio Brown with JuJu Shuster easily becoming the go-to wideout with Donte Moncrief and James Washington all ready to step up. Those are all roles none of these players have proven in the past that they can handle — so, in practice, this might be easier said than done. The Steelers averaged only 20.3 PPG in their last three games last season — and they also only scored 23.5 PPG on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots have been the thorn in the side for this Pittsburgh team more often than not. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 meetings with Pittsburgh — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 trips to Foxboro to play New England. 10* NFL Pittsburgh-New England NBC-TV Special with the New England Patriots (478) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (477). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) enters the new season looking to improve on a 5-11 campaign last year. Dallas (0-0) has Super Bowl expectations after a 10-6 regular season before losing in Los Angeles to the Rams in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs by a 30-22 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys have the swagger of a team that believes they will pick right up where they left off after losing on the road to the eventual NFC representative in the Super Bowl in the Rams. But teams that treat Week One of the new season as just the carryover of the previous week of last year tend to get bit — Chicago was the latest example of this phenomenon on Thursday night when they were upset at home against a divisional rival in the Packers. As it is, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening weeks to a new season. This is a new that has some kinks to still work out with a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore. Running back Ezekiel Elliott is back with the team this week after being given his new contract despite two years remaining on his deal. But not only will he have some game rust but there has not been much practice time for him to get back into synch with QB Dak Prescott and the rest of this offense. Elliott will likely get 20 to 25 touches in this game. The Cowboys host this contest but they have only failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Dallas defense is a concern as well entering the new season. They entered that playoff game with the Rams having allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.1% of their passes since Week 13 with those QBs averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Pass Attempt along with seven touchdown passes to just one interception. They also had registered just five sacks in their previous five games before failing to sack Jared Goff even once in that loss. The Cowboys run defense then allowed the Rams (even with an injured Todd Gurley) to rush for 273 yards on 48 carries for a robust 5.69 Yards-Per-Carry average. Here comes Saquon Barkley who was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year by rushing for 1307 yards while averaging 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. While it would be foolish to read too much into preseason numbers, I am not ignoring how efficient the Giants’ offense was in the preseason with all four of their quarterbacks under center in the second year under offensive coordinator Mike Shula. New York led all teams in the preseason with nine touchdowns and 119 total points while averaging 305.5 passing YPG and 393 total YPG. Shula’s schemes were working — I do not expect this offense to suffer from the sluggishness that we saw on Thursday from both the Packers and the Bears after their offensive starters did not play much in the preseason. QB Eli Manning got plenty of reps in August after playing in the first three preseason games. While the hype around rookie Daniel Jones intensified, what has continued to go under the radar is the fine season Manning enjoyed last year where he completed 66% of his passes for 4299 passing yards with 21 touchdown passes and just 11 interceptions in what was one of the best statistical seasons of his career. Golden Tate will not be available in this game given his PED suspension for the first four regular-season games but Sterling Shepard is listed as probable despite his thumb injury — and tight end Evan Engram is poised for a breakout season in his third year in the league. The defense should be much improved with the additions of Jabrill Peppers (in the Odell Beckham trade) along with the drafting of Clemson’s massive defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence and Georgia cover cornerback Deandre Baker in the first round of the NFL draft. New York has covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road. The Giants have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games getting 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: New York has certainly had this opening game circled after getting swept by the Cowboys last year. The Giants played in twelve games last year decided by one scoring possession — and they lost eight of those contests for a -4 net close loss number. They should be very competitive in this contest (and don’t be shocked if they follow Green Bay’s lead and pull off the road upset against a divisional rival coming off a playoff run — but still take the points for some insurance). 25* NFL NFC East Game of the Month with the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (455) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (456). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-0) looks to improve their 7-9 record from last season where they missed the playoffs. Philadelphia (0-0) comes off a 9-7 season where they lost in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs in a 20-14 loss in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDSKINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Eagles are a trendy pick to return to the Super Bowl with quarterback Carson Wentz healthy again at quarterback. But after playing much in the preseason, Wentz made still be a bit rusty for this opening game after not playing in last year’s playoffs because of injury. Timing is important when executing Run-Pass Option plays so the lack of repetitions in the preseason exhibition games where the conditions more closely approximate the regular-season atmosphere (as compared to inter-team scrimmages which remain controlled environments). Philadelphia was 5-3 at home last year but they only outscored their eight guests by +2.1 PPG — so asking them to cover a point spread of more than a touchdown against a division rival is asking a lot of this team. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of September. Washington is an ugly dog opening the season after the highly publicized holdout of their left tackle Trent Williams that remains unresolved. The Skins are also without one of their best-receiving targets in tight end Jordan Reed who is still in the concussion protocol. And the new Washington quarterback is Case Keenum who no one gets excited about. But the Skins have running back Derrius Guice healthy again who looked poised for an outstanding season before suffering a season-ending leg injury last year. Washington also has a very underrated with Alabama alumni Da’Ron Payne and Jonathan Allen up front and Josh Norman still patrolling the secondary. The Skins held their home hosts to only 20.2 PPG last year which helped them be dangerous road warriors where they won four of their games. This unit should be improved with the addition of first-round draft pick in defensive end Montez Sweat from Mississippi State and strong safety Landon Collins from the Giants via free agency. Washington has covered the point spread in 3 straight games on the road getting 7.5 to 14 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 5 games in the month of September, the Skins have covered the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: Washington certainly had this game circled in the offseason after being swept by the Eagles in their two regular-season games by 28-13 and then 24-0 scores. That shutout loss at home on December 30th really stung — look for the Skins to be a very tough out for Philly this afternoon. 10* NFL Big Dog Surprise with the Washington Redskins (455) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (452) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (451). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-0) enters the new season looking to build off their 12-5 season that culminated in their heartbreaking 16-15 loss in the NFC Wildcard playoff game at home in Soldier Field against Philadelphia where a missed field goal that hit the uprights cost them the victory. Green Bay (0-0) looks to improve on a disappointing 6-9-1 campaign last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: There are a host of reasons why Chicago will have a worse record this season despite possibly being a better team overall. For starters, the Bears lost the second-fewest number of starters games to injuries last season which will be difficult for them to sustain. But this is a healthy team now that has been anxious to get back to Soldier Field to redeem themselves from that devastating playoff loss to the Eagles. Chicago was outstanding at home last year where they finished 7-2 with an average winning margin of +10.4 PPG. The Bears outgained their visitors by +78.5 net YPG as well given the strength of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky’s better play at home at Soldier Field. Chicago averaged 26.7 PPG at home while generating 365.7 total YPG. The Bears are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games as the favorite. Chicago has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Bears will once again have an outstanding defense led by Khalil Mack — they led the NFL by allowing only 17.7 PPG. And while they also allowed 299.7 total YPG (3rd in the NFL), that number dropped to 287.2 total YPG when playing at home. Furthermore, Chicago typically plays very well against fellow NFC North foes as they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games against divisional foes. Green Bay hopes to bounce-back from a 6-9-1 season — but this may be a team moving in the wrong direction considering that they are just 13-18-1 over the last two seasons. They only defeated one team with a winning record last year. Matt LaFleur will be making his debut as an NFL head coach in this game despite overseeing an offense in Tennessee last year that ranked just 25th in the league. But the offense looks in far better shape than the Packers defense that Football Outsiders ranked as fourth-worst in the NFL last year with their metrics. This unit did add Ames from the Bears via free agency to bolster their secondary — but this group has also seen attrition with them cutting veteran defensive lineman Mike Daniels and then losing starting linebacker Oren Burks to a pectoral injury. Green Bay drafted Rashan Gary as the 13th pick in the first round of the NFL draft — but he struggled in training camp while adapting to a new position at outside linebacker which is a strange way to deploy a player who was at best at Michigan when playing defensive tackle. The Packers allowed their home hosts to score 29.4 PPG last year while averaging 374 total YPG. Green Bay is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two meetings last year with Green Bay winning their first meeting in September by a 24-23 score before the Bears avenged that loss in December back at Soldier Field with their 24-17 victory as a 5.5-point favorite. The Packers have been overvalued in these divisional rivalries as of late as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 meetings with an NFC North opponents — including failing to cover the point spread in their last four divisional games. 10* NFL Green Bay-Chicago NBC-TV Special with the Chicago Bears (452) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (101) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: New England (13-5) has reached the Super Bowl for the third straight year along with fourth time in the last five seasons with their 37-31 win in overtime at Kansas City as a 3-point underdog. Los Angeles (15-3) earned the right to play them with their 26-23 upset win in overtime in New Orleans as a 3-point underdog. Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta will host Super Bowl LIII.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS POINTS: The Rams were one of the top two betting favorites to win the Super Bowl before the season started but I always considered them overrated. Playoff wins over a Cowboys team that finished 3-6 on the road while scoring 17.4 PPG in those contests and then the controversial way they won in New Orleans in the NFC Championship Game did little to change this initial opinion. The travesty non-call on wide receiver Tommylee Lewis likely cost the Saints the game — and that call obscured another bad non-call penalty interference on Ted Ginn on the previous drive that probably sets up another New Orleans scoring drive. Admittedly, the officials missed a face mask call on Jared Goff in their game-tying drive that ended in a field goal — but the terrible officiating did more to keep the Rams in the game, all things considered. This represents the signature victory for Los Angeles this season — yet it lacks any definitive statement moving forward given the shaky circumstances from which they escaped with the win. The Rams defeated a still-improving Chargers team earlier in the season before beating Kansas City at home who proved to be a team that simply could not stop any quality offense. I had concerns over whether the Rams’ collections of free agent splurges could come together to form a cohesive unit given the history of Dan Snyder’s teams in Washington and the so-called “dream team” of the 2011 Philadelphia Eagles. I have never loved the collection of egos that were assembled with this team — and the two weeks of Super Bowl hype is not the best way for hired guns to mentally prepare for a game of this magnitude. And given that this franchise is facing a salary cap crunch in the offseason, there is tremendous pressure on this team to take advantage of this moment. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games in expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Patriots have a substantial advantage at quarterback given the experience of Tom Brady versus a Jared Goff playing in just his fourth playoff game. Goff was exposed late in the season when made uncomfortable against the Bears and Eagles in a game plan that Bill Belichick will have completely mastered. While Goff made some great plays in the second-half against the Saints, this is still a quarterback who did not play nearly as well on the road and who clearly missed his security blanket in wide receiver Cooper Kupp who suffered a season-ending injury midseason. The weakness of the Rams’ defense has always been their linebackers after they traded Robert Quinn and Alec Ogletree in the offseason to clear cap room space. That left that group thin on the edge which has been compounded by the decline of inside linebacker Mark Barron whose past Achilles’ injury has seen his speed and athleticism dwindle to subpar levels. Los Angeles is second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 8.8 Yards-Per-Attempt from play-action passes. Brady is going to pick apart this Rams’ defense in the middle of the field with his assortment of weapons that feasts on mismatches like this. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has been stubborn with his cornerback positioning by keeping Talib Aqib on the left side of the field which allowed opponents to exploit Marcus Peters. LA ranked 2nd in the NFL in pass defense on Aqib’s side of the field when he was healthy while ranking 24th in the league on Peters’ left side — and these vulnerabilities are exactly the things that Brady will have a field day exploiting. This is an opportunity for New England to redeem themselves from last year’s loss in the Super Bowl. While the final score indicated that the Eagles won by 8 points, remember that the Patriots had a 33-32 lead with under 3 minutes to go before letting that game slip away. Brady was sensational in that game against a defense better than this Rams’ unit — he completed 28 of 48 passes for 505 yards with three touchdowns all without the services of the injured Julian Edelman. Brady’s offensive support is better this time around with a healthy Edelman and an improved offensive line. Brady was not sacked in 90 passing attempts in this year’s playoffs. And don’t underestimate the positive impact of rookie running back Sony Michel who has given the Patriots their most talented running back in years. Finally, I just find the playoff experience that this New England team enjoys to offer this franchise a decisive edge. This is Brady and Belichick’s ninth Super Bowl appearance in eighteen seasons. Belichick’s assistants have been with him for years as well: offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has been with New England for fifteen of Belichick’s nineteen seasons there; offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia has been with them for seventeen of Belichick’s nineteen seasons; running backs coach Ivan Fears has been there for all nineteen seasons. From the two weeks of preparation and planning for the Super Bowl to the management of the game, the Patriots simply have a huge edge. While Sean McVay is the wunderkind of the league now, his reputation was saved by the bad non-call late in the game against the Saints that pushed to the background his bad decision to not go for the touchdown earlier in the 4th quarter when he elected to kick a tying field goal. Rams’ backers for this game mention things like the “value” they offer as a small underdog. I think those are sentiments that are rationalizing hype from the preseason. Let’s also remember that New England has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record while also covering the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams opened as a 1.5-point favorite but were quickly bet down to a 1-point underdog to the Patriots. Since that time, New England has been bet up to 2.5 to 3-point favorites as of a week before the game. This line movement is consistent with how I initially handicapped this matchup. I did consider a contrarian angle regarding the Rams being pushed by the commentary that New Orleans was robbed by the referees but I quickly dismissed it. I don’t think the Rams need any more bulletin board material for them to get motivated to win a championship. Besides, the referee's storyline from last week will be old news by kick off for this game. The Patriots traveled to Arrowhead Stadium and outgained Kansas City by a decisive 524 to 290 margin. With the edges in coaching, quarterback, and playoff experience (after losing last year’s Super Bowl that I saw as basically a coin flip or two away from them winning), New England is the strong play. 25* NFL Super Bowl A-List Special with the New England Patriots (101) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. For those interested in Super Bowl Props, I will have my Betting Card for a Best Bet, Top Overlay Bet (offering the best value relative to the odds), and my top Long Shot Bet by Saturday (2/2) with it attached as a Free Bonus to a Saturday (and Sunday) College Basketball play.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (313). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-4) has won their last two games after their 31-13 win over Indianapolis last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. New England (12-5) reached the AFC Championship Game last Sunday with their 41-28 win at home over the LA Chargers as a 3.5-point favorite.  This is a rematch of the Patriots’ 43-40 win against the Chiefs in Foxboro back on October 14th as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: I would have raced to make a call on this game earlier in the week, I might have endorsed the Patriots. With the weather projections being of an Arctic Blast that would see wind chill temperatures well below zero degrees, I needed to strongly consider that Tom Brady’s experience with below-freezing weather could be overwhelming for Patrick Mahomes and the high-precision Kansas City offense to overcome. But the 48-hour projection is for highs to be in the low-30s with game-time temperatures expected to stay in the 20s. It will be difficult for the Patriots to come close to replicate the near-perfect game they played against the Chargers last Sunday. It certainly helped that Los Angeles was traveling east for the second straight week to play in an earlier 1 PM ET kickoff with that being their third straight game on the road. The Chargers only flew in the day before — so their travel management did themselves no favors to get ready for that showdown. But now the Patriots go on the road where they have not won a playoff game since 2007. New England was a perfect 9-0 at home this season where they scored 33.8 PPG — but the Patriots were just 3-5 on the road with an average losing margin of -2.4 PPG. New England only scores 21.6 PPG while allowing their home hosts to average 399.0 total YPG The DVOA defensive ranking by the analytics folks at Football Outsiders ranks the Patriots as the second worst defensive unit on the road this season. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 opportunities to play in the AFC Conference Championship Game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while the Chiefs have covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two straight contests. Mahomes was more than capable playing in temperatures in the 20s against the Colts by completing 27 of 41 passes for 278 yards while leading the offense to 433 yards (which was above their league-leading yardage average). Kansas City is now 8-1 at home with an average winning margin of +14.8 PPG. The Chiefs have scored at least 26 points in every game this season — but it is the play of their defense that home has them so tough to beat in Arrowhead Stadium. While KC allows 34.3 PPG on the road, that number plummets to just 17.4 PPG at home which is tied for the third-best mark in the NFL. The noise of the home crowd certainly helps to disrupt opposing offenses snap counts and the ability of opposing quarterbacks to call audibles at the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs’ pass rush thrives at home as well — they lead the NFL with 34 sacks at home and a pressure rate of 36.9% as compared to their 25.9% pressure rate on quarterbacks on the road which ranks only 26th in the league. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: While the Chiefs defense plays much better when playing at home when they are bolstered by the crowd noise, Kansas City’s formula for success still requires their offense to outperform what Brady can do with the Patriots’ offense. While the cold is not ideal for Mahomes, the prospect of temperatures below 10 degrees would have been a much more difficult challenge. This year’s Patriots’ team has not been nearly as good when playing away from Foxboro. 25* NFL Sunday Night Special Feature with the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (311). New Orleans (14-3) reached the NFC Conference Championship Game with their 20-14 win over Philadelphia last Sunday as an 8.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (14-3) has won three straight games with their 30-22 win over Dallas as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. This is a rematch of the Saints’ 45-35 win in New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog back on November 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans showed resiliency to pull out that game last week despite falling behind 14-0 in the first-quarter. The Saints surrendered 150 yards in the opening quarter to the reigning Super Bowl Champions before clamping down to limit the Eagles offense to only 100 more yards of offense. The officials certainly did New Orleans few favors as they were pretty whistle-happy in calling holding penalties on their offensive line — yet Drew Brees and this team could not be denied winning this game on their home field. Remember, the Saints cover the point spread if they hit a late field goal attempt. They out-gained Philly by a 420 to 250 yards margin. They also took the lead and seized control of this game with an eighteen play drive in the 3rd quarter that ate over 11 minutes of time off the clock while overcame 25 yards in penalties to result in a touchdown that started on their 8-yard line. Those efforts are good signs for New Orleans today as they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after out-gaining their last opponent by at least +100 yards. And while the Saints have not covered the point spread in four straight contests, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. Much has been said this week about the “struggling” Saints offense that has scored only 19 PPG over their last six games. Some caveats should be offered when presenting that statistic — most notably, that the offense was missing their top offensive lineman in Terron Armstead to close out the the regular season before getting him back on the field last week. Furthermore, we can throw out the meaningless Week 17 game against Carolina while remembering two of those games were on the road against two good defenses with Carolina and Dallas. New Orleans did put up 31 points at home in an important win over the Steelers during this final stretch that never seems to get mentioned. The Saints score 32.6 PPG at home this season — and the 420 yards they generated last week were higher than their 402.9 YPG season average in the Superdome. Brees completes 75.9% of his passes in the dome while averaging 9.31 Yards-Per-Attempt with an incredible 23 touchdown passes to just 2 interceptions. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 32 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The defense should get some of the credit for the drop in the Saints’ scoring numbers, as well, since head coach Sean Payton does not have to game plan to reach 30 points to have a chance to win. Throw out that Week 17 game with the Panthers and the Saints have allowed just 14.5 PPG over their last eight contests while holding seven of those opponents to under 17 points. Los Angeles has won and covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three in a row. That victory over the Cowboys was against a team that finished just 3-6 on the road while averaging only 17.9 PPG in those contests. The Rams have morphed into a rushing team to close out the season — they have rushed for at least 155 yards in three straight games. But while LA has scored at least 30 points in three straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in three straight contests. Of course, one of the reasons why head coach Sean McVay has decided to run the ball more is to hide quarterback Jared Goff who was exposed in a two-game stretch against the Bears and Eagles. Goff struggles against teams with good pass rushes — he ranks 28th in the league in Passer Rating when facing pressure and gets off the McVay script. The Saints' defense rank 5th in the NFL when playing at home in both sacks and QB Pressures. Goff has thrown for more than 220 yards only once in his last six games. Goff clearly misses wide receiver Cooper Cupp who was his security blanket. In his six career starts without Cupp, Goff sees his passing YPG drop by 22.6 yards while his Yards-Per-Attempt drops a whopping 1.3 YPA. Goff also is a much better passer at home where he averages 8.8 YPA with a 22:3 TD-to-interception ratio — but those numbers plummet to just 7.56 YPA with a middling 10:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio when he is playing on the road. Those are ominous numbers for this young quarterback now playing in one of the loudest football stadiums in the NFL. Goff may be required to win this game with his arm considering this Saints’ defense is outstanding against the run. New Orleans is second in the NFL by allowing just 80.2 rushing YPG — and they rank 3rd in the league by limiting opposing rushers to just 3.98 Yards-Per-Carry. This is an expected higher-scoring game with the Total set in the high-50s — but the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. And while LA has revenge on their minds from the first meeting, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when attempting to avenge a same-season upset loss as a road favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints are very reliable in expected close games as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. This is their fourth straight game at home as well so they hold a big situational edge which afforded them the opportunity to coast out the close of the regular season. New Orleans will miss defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins who suffered a season-ending knee injury last week — but he was often double-team which put the onus on his teammates to make plays. With their playoff experience and the better quarterback, look for the Saints to seize this moment and play their best game since peaking with that 48-7 win over the Eagles in mid-November. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (308) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (307). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (13-3) closed out their regular season with a 33-14 upset loss to Carolina as an 8-point favorite. Philadelphia (10-7) has won four straight games with Nick Foles under center after their 16-15 upset win at Chicago last Sunday as a 6.5-point underdog. This is a rematch of the Week Eleven meeting between these two teams back on November 18th where the Saints destroyed the Eagles in the Superdome by a 48-7 score.

REASONS TO TAKE NEW ORLEANS MINUS THE POINTS: If I am going to play-against a team with a chip on their shoulder looking to avenge a 41-point same-season loss — with the point spread value that often creates in the betting market — I am going to very comfortable with that decision. I am. We can’t be zombies in these situations — especially because appealing betting situations often run into conflict other reliable betting situations pointing to the other side. Playoff teams looking to avenge a loss of at least 30 points in the regular season have lost nine of those fourteen showdowns. I never researched the against-the-spread numbers on those — but seeing five outright wins is certainly not an argument against the Eagles. Frankly, I just assumed the worst about how these avenging dogs generally do in these playoff situations. But that the personality of this Philly team goes the other way as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss on the road by at least two touchdowns. I also am not going to haphazardly bet against any team that has pulled off four straight upset victories in the playoffs while winning five of their last six games outright when getting the points. I was on the wrong side of too many of those playoff upset victories. But each new situation is unique — and I hate the circumstances this Eagles team faces entering this game. This is Philly’s third straight game on the road — and it is their fifth game in their last six contests away from home. And let’s remember that despite all the Foles magic, this is a team that needed a missed game-ending field goal to escape Chicago with that win. They were out-gained by the Bears by 56 net yards after gaining just 300 yards in that game. Philly is going to struggle to run the football this afternoon as they have averaged just 3.23 Yards-Per-Carry since Foles took over at quarterback. They now face a stout Saints’ run defense that is second in the NFL by allowing just 80.2 rushing YPG and third best in the league using the advanced metrics by Football Outsiders. New Orleans allows opposing rushers to average just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry when playing at home. Making the Eagles one-dimensional was one of the keys to their blowout victory in November. Furthermore, the Philadelphia defense has been decimated with injuries — and while the three new defensive backs that were exposed in the first meeting between these two teams have developed, that does not change the fact these remains NFL-level backup players with size and/or speed deficiencies now facing Drew Brees. Four of the last five opponents that the Eagles have faced have generated at least 300 passing yards. Brees will be facing a defense that has allowed their last four of their last five opposing quarterbacks to average 11.6 Yards-Per-Attempt while throwing five touchdown passes of over 20 yards in the air. Brees has an impeccable 128.6 Passer Rating of passes of at least 20 yards in the air this season. Philadelphia has simply been exposed by good offenses. In their six games against playoff teams during the regular season, the Eagles surrendered 28.8 PPG with that number rising to a 33.3 PPG mark when playing on the road as compared to the 17.5 PPG they held their twelve opponents who did not make the playoffs with that mark actually falling to 16.8 PPG surrendered when playing non-playoff teams on the road. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards. And don’t underestimate the problem playing on the faster field turf in the Superdome presents to this Philly team as it will exacerbate the speed issues they have with their backup in their secondary. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played on field turf. Saints’ head coach Sean Payton had the luxury of resting most of his key starters in that loss to the Panthers that should be ignored when handicapping this game. The New Orleans starters have essentially has had three weeks off to get rested and ready for the playoffs. This team is getting healthy again with the biggest boost being with the return of left tackle Terron Armstead whose shoulder injury played a big role in Brees’ mini-slump late in the season. The Saints’ offense is a machine when they are playing at home — they average 34.1 PPG while putting up over 400 yards of offense this season. Brees has an impeccable 21:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio when playing at home while averaging 9.54 Yards-Per-Attempt as compared to his 11:4 ratio and 6.88 YPA marks on the road. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 25 of the last 31 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Saints defense has also been underappreciated down the stretch of the season. Take out the meaningless Carolina game in Week 17 and New Orleans has held their last seven opponents to just 14.6 PPG while ranking 5th in the NFL with 49 sacks and 101 quarterback hits over that span. This team under Payton has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of January.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles were my Best Bet to win the Super Bowl back in August — so I really appreciate what Doug Pederson has done with this franchise. Too many injuries, too many road games, too many hurdles to overcome — and now they run into a rested, tanned and ready Saints bulldozer of a team at home. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (308) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (306) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (305). THE SITUATION: New England (11-5) has won two straight games to close out the regular season with their 38-3 win over the New York Jets as a 14.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Los Angeles (13-4) has won six of their last seven games with their 23-17 upset win at Baltimore last week as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: I like this Chargers team behind Philip Rivers — they have made us a lot of money this season. However, this is just too challenging of circumstances. It is just brutal to ask this west coast team to travel east for the second straight week to play in an early 1 PM ET contest. Los Angeles will have traveled over 10,000 miles over their three-game road trip since Week 17 of the regular season — now they have to play in cold weather with temperatures projected to be in the 20s. It is so hard for the best of teams to play close to their maximum ability with these sets of obstacles. As it is, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game on the road — and they have failed to cover there point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory on the road. Furthermore, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset victory. And while the Chargers defense held the Ravens to just 229 yards of offense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in each of their last two games. Rivers has seen his production decline as of late — he only has one touchdown pass in his last three games. Over that span, the Chargers are scoring just 18.7 PPG over these last three games while average just 239.0 total YPG. Rivers has averaged just 153.7 passing YPG in those last three games with a Passer Rating of only 55.2. In this team’s first fourteen games, they averaged 28.2 PPG along with 392.0 total YPG with Rivers averaging 270.1 passing YPG and posting a 112.4 Passer Rating. Maybe Rivers is fatiguing? These are simply far from ideal conditions for a veteran quarterback who has a career 1-8 mark against the Patriots. In his last four starts against a Bill Belichick defense, Rivers has led his team to only 17.0 PPG. And to compound matters even more, he is facing a New England defense that leads the NFL by playing man-to-man in 57% of their defensive snaps. All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore may be enjoying his best season — he has allowed the second fewest yards after catch this year. He will make things very difficult for wide receiver Keenan Allen. And Rivers averages 7.99 Yards-Per-Attempt against man-to-man coverage this season as compared to his 9.55 YPP mark against zone defenses. New England has allowed only 32 combined points over their last three games. This Patriots team is very tough to beat when the defense is playing well. They have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 17 points in three straight contests. The New England defense is very stingy at home as they hold their guests to just 16.6 PPG along with a mere 319.5 total YPG. While we are witnesses the inevitable deterioration of Tom Brady’s skills — this remains a Patriots team was unbeaten at home this year with a +16.3 net point differential in those games. But the Patriots offense still cranks it up when playing in Foxboro as they average 32.9 PPG along with 430.6 total YPG. New England is 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games when favored by no more than 7 points. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games at home.

FINAL TAKE: Playing the physical Ravens team on both sides of the ball in two of their last three games may be yet another under- appreciated concern for this Chargers team. They now face the gauntlet of this New England team that has won eleven of their last twelve home playoff games in the AFC Divisional playoffs. 25* AFC Playoff Game of the Year with the New England Patriots (306) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (304) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (303). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (13-3) takes the field again after their 48-32 victory over San Francisco two weeks ago to close out their regular season. Dallas (11-6) advanced to the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last Saturday with their 24-22 win over Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles rebounded from a late-season swoon by winning their last two games of the season. Their 16-point win over the 49ers was preceded by a decisive 31-9 victory at Arizona. Those wins are a good sign for the Rams now as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by at last four touchdowns in their last game against an NFC West rival. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after winning their last two games over divisional rivals. And while the Rams have raced out to 12 and 21 point halftime leads in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after holding double-digit leads in two straight games. Quarterback Jared Goff was exposed in losses at Chicago and home to Philadelphia down the stretch of the season. While I considered Goff a bit overrated in relation to the peak of Rams/Sean McVay worship earlier this season, there has been an overreaction to Goff’s struggles against two good defenses with that Bears game being in a very chilly environment. McVay made some adjustments to help Goff play better over his final two games where he completed 68% of his passes with an 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt average while tossing 5 touchdown passes with no interceptions and just one sack. Goff has been a much better quarterback this season when playing at home where he enjoys an incredible 22-to-3 touchdown to interception ratio while averaging 9.03 Yards-Per-Attempt — as compared to his 10:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the road with a 7.56 YPA mark. He is supported by what might be the best offensive line in football along with a rested Todd Gurley who torched this Dallas defense last year for 215 yards. The Rams are very tough when playing at home where they are 7-1 with an average winning margin of +9.0 PPG due to their explosive offense that scores 37.1 PPG while averaging 452.3 total YPG. Admittedly, the Cowboys will have plenty of fan support in this game — the crowd advantage will be minimal at best for the Rams. But many observers fail to appreciate that one of the main sources of advantage that home teams seize when they play at home comes from familiarity and routine. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games on the road. They enter this game having won eight of their last nine games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least eight of their last ten contests. The Cowboys ended the regular season with a 36-35 win in New York against the Giants in their most recent game away from home. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning their last two contests by no more than 6 points in both games. The Cowboys have struggled on the road where they are just 3-5 this season with an average losing margin of -4.6 PPG. Dallas only scores 17.4 PPG when playing on the road while averaging just 324.2 total YPG. Wide receiver Amari Cooper averaged just 4.5 receptions per game since joining the Cowboys when playing on the road for just a 43.5 receiving YPG while failing to score a touchdown. Those numbers are in stark contrast to the 7.0 receptions per game he averaged at home in Dallas with a 109.5 receiving YPG mark while averaging a touchdown per game. The Cowboys defense also allows 367.6 YPG when playing away from home which is almost 40 YPG higher than their season average. The Dallas pass defense has declined down the stretch of the season after peaking in that big Thursday night win when they hosted New Orleans. Since that victory in Week 13, the Cowboys have allowed opposing passers to complete 65.1% of their passes while averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Attempt. These opposing QBs have thrown 7 touchdown passes with just one interception while the Dallas defense has registered only seven sacks in those last five games. The Cowboys rush defense has also struggled as of late when playing on the road. In their last four road games, Dallas has allowed 105.5 rushing YPG along with a 5.02 Yards-Per-Carry average against the middling rushing attacks of Atlanta, Philadelphia, the NY Giants and Indianapolis. Dallas has allowed their last three opponents to score 25.7 PPG along with 374.3 total YPG which is more than 5 PPG and 40 YPG more than their season averages. Those are not encouraging trends for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has been a much better team at home this year than they have been on the road. After their win over the Seahawks last week, the pressure is off this franchise. While some would say that they are playing with the proverbial house money, I suspect this lack of urgency will result in a loss of edge when facing this Rams’ team that absolutely must win this game after being upset at home to the Falcons in their lone playoff game last year. 10* NFL Dallas-LA Rams Fox-TV Special with the Los Angeles Rams (304) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (302) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (301). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-4) closed out their regular season with a 35-3 victory over Oakland back on December 30th as 14.5-point favorites. Indianapolis (11-6) advanced to the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs with their 21-7 upset win at Houston last Saturday as a 2-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: The Colts have won two crucial de-facto playoff games in a row with their triumph in Houston last week preceded by their victory at Tennessee for Sunday Night Football two weeks ago that was necessary for them to clinch the sixth and final AFC playoff spot. It is very hard to continue to be road warriors like this in single-elimination football games — a bad break or two can offer the home team insurmountable momentum. Indianapolis looks due for a letdown after covering the point spread in four of their last five games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after they covered the point spread in at least three of their last four games. And while the Colts rushed out to a 21-0 halftime lead last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying at least a two-touchdown lead in the first-half of their last game. Andrew Luck led the offense 422 yards in that win but Indy has then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after they gained at least 400 yards in their last game. Remember that the Colts offense stalled in the second-half as they did not score a single point. Indianapolis has benefited from the second easiest regular season record according to some of the analytical breakdowns with some of the metrics grading out the opposing quarterbacks they encountered as the easiest cast of characters as any team faced this season. The best statistical offense they faced was against the Patriots — and Tom Brady lit up the Colts defense for 38 points. These are all ominous circumstances for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Chiefs are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while KC has only covered the point spread once in their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five contests. Patrick Mahomes may be set up to enjoy a fantastic game against this Colts team that leads the NFL in playing Cover-2 or Cover-3 zone defenses. These schemes that dedicate two or three defensive backs in zone coverage leaves the middle of the field in intermediate areas wide open. Andy Reid’s schemes rip these defenses apart with Mahomes quickly mastering these skills. Mahomes has averaged an 8.8 Yards-Per-Attempt this season — and that number rises to a 9.2 YPA mark when he is facing Cover-2 or Cover-3 schemes this year. Furthermore, in their five games against teams that rank in top-eight in the frequency of deploying zone schemes, Mahomes has completed 64.5% of the 167 passes he has attempted while generating 14 touchdown passes to zero interceptions. Reid’s effectiveness in coaching with the benefit of the bye week is legendary — his teams have won twenty-one of their twenty-five games when playing with this advantage. Reid has also overseen four victories in five playoff games with the benefit of a second week of prep.

FINAL TAKE: Lastly, it is going to be cold in Kansas City for this game with temperatures topping in the mid-30s with a 90% chance of precipitation (as of this writing) with a good possibility of snow. Those are not ideal conditions for a dome team, to say the least. The Chiefs should win and cover the spread. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Kansas City NBC-TV Special with the Kansas City Chiefs (302) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (108) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (107). THE SITUATION: Chicago (12-4) has won four straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 24-10 upset at Minnesota last week as a 6-point underdog. Philadelphia (9-7) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six games with their 24-0 win at Washington as a 6-point favorite last week to sneak into the playoffs with that Vikings loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Chicago has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. And while the Bears held the Vikings to just 164 yards of offense last week, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. This Chicago defense is outstanding — they are holding their opponents to less than 1.5 points-per-drive while forcing a turnover in almost 20% of their opponent’s possessions. They rank first in the NFL by allowing only 17.7 PPG while also ranking 3rd in the NFL by giving up just 299.7 total YPG. Furthermore, over their last three games, the Bears are allowing only 12.0 PPG along with just 255.3 total YPG. Chicago has been very tough to beat at home where they are 7-1 with an average winning margin of +10.6 PPG. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky plays his best at home where he leads an offense that scores 28.1 PPG along with averaging 366.9 total YPG. The Bears are a decisive 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games at home — and they are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Chicago has also covered the point spread in 7 straight home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point spread. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia took care of business against a Washington team ravaged with injuries — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after a win by at least three touchdowns. The Eagles held the Skins to just 21 rushing yards along with only 68 passing yards in their win — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 30 rushing yards in their last game and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. While it may be tempting to think this team is set up to make another improbable playoff run with Nick Foles again under center, keep in mind that the deeper metrics for this team indicate this is a completely average football team which is a stark contrast from what those numbers were indicating at this time last season. Injuries have hit this team very hard particularly in their secondary with Rodney McLeod, Ronald Darby, and Jalen Mills out the season and now cornerback Sidney Jones out for this game with a hamstring injury. On offense, their rushing attack misses Jay Ajayi from last year while the offensive line has not been as dominant as last year’s group. The Eagles’ offense tends to stall if they cannot establish a credible rushing attack — and they are now facing the NFL stingiest run defense in the league as the Bears allow only 80.0 rushing YPG. Philadelphia has only scored more than 24 points twice in their eight road games this season — and they have yet to play a defense as stout as this Chicago unit. The Bears have the personnel to not have to blitz Foles. Last year’s Super Bowl MVP has struggled when facing zone defenses against which he averages just 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt with zero touchdown passes with three interceptions and five sacks — as compared to his 10.6 YPA mark against man-to-man defense with 5 five touchdown passes, zero interceptions and just one sack. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia’s run as reigning Super Bowl champions likely ends tonight. They have a -6 net turnover margin for the season which is an ominous number when facing this Bears team that enjoys a +12 net turnover margin. Expect Chicago to eventually pull away for an easy win. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Chicago Bears (108) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (105) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (106). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (12-4) has won five of their last six games with their 23-9 win at Denver as a 7-point favorite last week. Baltimore (10-6) has won three games in a row with their 26-24 victory over Cleveland as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. This is a rematch of the Ravens’ 22-10 upset victory in Los Angeles back on December 22nd as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 49 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Head coach Anthony Lynn should have this team ready to play in this revenge spot from two weeks ago as the Chargers have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 36 opportunities to avenge an upset loss. Los Angeles stays on the road for the third time in four weeks — but this team under veteran quarterback Philip Rivers are the epitome of road warriors. The Chargers are 8-1 this season with an average winning margin of +7.1 PPG due to a defense that limits their home hosts to just 19.8 PPG. Los Angeles is 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games on the road — and this includes them covering the point spread in seven of their last eight games away from home. The Chargers have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games on the road. The Chargers have a huge benefit in facing the new run-dominant Ravens offense two weeks ago. It is a challenge to prepare for this Baltimore offense since practice squads do not have players that can adequately replicate rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson’s skill set. In this quick turnaround rematch, look for the Chargers’ defense to stay committed to assignment football which is the most effective way to slow down these wishbone style rushing attacks. Don’t be surprised if Los Angeles also has their defensive backs employ inside presses along while running some corner or safety blitzes to put the pressure on Jackson. The rookie has completed only 17 of 34 passes when facing a blitz this season while getting sacked 5 times. The Chargers should force Jackson to beat him with his arm — and he was not adept in his college career in accurately delivering fade route passes that he should be forced into making this afternoon. 115 of Jackson’s 185 pass attempts this season (68%) have been no longer than 10 passing yards — so daring him to execute medium and longer passes should be the order of the day. Baltimore allowed only a touchdown to the Browns in the first-half last week after holding the Chargers scoreless in the first-half in the previous week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than a touchdown in the first-half in two straight games. And while the Ravens have covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Despite the winning streak this team has enjoyed behind Jackson, they have averaged just 22.7 PPG over their last three games. They host this game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Ultimately, this playoff game comes down to a rookie quarterback who is untested in winning games with his arm versus a likely first-ballot Hall of Famer. It is telling that the Ravens have not won a game this season if they trailed in it after the end of the third quarter. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers pull the upset but take the points for some insurance. 10* NFL LA Chargers-Baltimore CBS-TV Special with the Los Angeles Chargers (105) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (104) minus the point(s) versus the Seattle Seahawks (103). THE SITUATION: Dallas (10-6) has won two straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests with their 36-35 upset win in New York against the Giants as a 7.5-point underdog. Seattle (10-6) has also won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 27-24 win over Arizona as a 14-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINT(S): Dallas closed out their season with a win over a divisional rival despite resting much of their players — that is why they closed that game as an underdog getting around a touchdown. The Cowboys are such a fragile team — they feel great about winning that meaningless way given the way they celebrated afterward — and they should feed off that momentum for this contest. Dallas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after an upset victory — and they have also covered the point spread 5 of their last 7 games after an upset victory over an NFC East rival. Furthermore, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. Dallas will benefit from having a fresh Ezekiel Elliott in this game. This team is also getting as healthy again on their offensive line with Tyron Smith, Connor Williams and Zack Martin all upgraded to probable for this game. The Cowboys should be able to find success running the football against this Seahawks defense that has allowed opposing rushers to average 5.13 Yards-Per-Carry since Week Nine. Dallas gets to host this game where they score 25.0 PPG while averaging 363.4 total YPG. Of course, the Cowboys season numbers on offense are skewed down because their acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper transformed their offense by offering QB Dak Prescott a legitimate number one wide receiver target — and the mere threat of Cooper down the field opens the running game up for Elliott. In their three-game home stand from Thanksgiving until the second Sunday in December against Washington, New Orleans, and Philadelphia, Dallas averaged 429.3 YPG which demonstrates the positive impact Cooper had on their offense. Dallas is a near perfect 7-1 at home with an average winning margin of +6.5 PPG where they are scoring 25.0 PPG while averaging 363.4 total YPG. The Cowboys defense has been very stingy at home as well as they hold their opponents to just 18.5 PPG along with limiting them to only 290.9 total YPG. Dallas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on their home field — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against NFC foes. Seattle has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a win at home — and they may be due for a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning four of their last five games. Their narrow win over the Cardinals followed up that 38-31 win at home over Kansas City — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after winning their last two games at home by 7 points or less. Seattle has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys used to have middling results when playing at home in AT&T Stadium but Jerry’s World has finally given this team a significant home-field advantage behind an exuberant crowd that helps their role players play better. Dallas is a much-improved team with Cooper in the mix than they were when these two teams first played in late September. Head coach Pete Carroll has done a great job with the Seahawks this season — but look for them to fall short on the road against a Dallas team that is very tough at home these days. 10* NFL Seattle-Dallas Fox-TV Special with the Dallas Cowboys (104) minus the point(s) versus the Seattle Seahawks (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (102) minus the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (101). THE SITUATION: Houston (11-5) has won two of their last three games after their 20-3 win over Jacksonville as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (10-6) has won four straight games after they defeated the Titans in Tennessee last Sunday night to clinch the final wildcard spot in the AFC. These two teams will be meeting for the third time: the Texans won the first matchup on September 30th by a 37-34 score as a 1-point favorite before the Colts won the rematch on December 9th by a 24-21 upset score despite being a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE HOUSTON MINUS THE POINT(S): This is a tough spot for Indianapolis who stay on the road for the second straight week in a must-win situation. It might be difficult for the Colts to maintain the intensity they needed to bring last Sunday night to defeat the Titans in Nashville. As it is, Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they are just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Colts rushed for 158 yards in that game as this has become a team that likes to run the ball to establish their offense. But getting their ground game going will be difficult against this Texans defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL by allowing just 82.7 rushing YPG. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after covering three of their last four contests. Quarterback Andrew Luck is having a great comeback season but he is leading a team that is just 4-4 on the road this season while scoring 24.2 PPG and averaging 369.4 total YPG — and those numbers are -2.9 PPG and -16.8 YPG below their overall season averages. The Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games as an underdog getting no more than 3 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games on the road. Houston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. The team is getting relatively healthy for this game with running back Lamar Miller returning to the field last week while rookie slot receiver Keke Coutee (who caught 10 passes in the first encounter with the Colts this year) looks set to finally play again after missing significant time with his hamstring. One of the reasons I give the Texans the edge in this game is they have more established star talent. This is the first season that head coach Bill O’Brien has had the services of defensive ends J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney for the entire season along with linebacker Whitney Mercilus healthy and playing together. I expect defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel will dial up a good scheme in his third opportunity to slow down Luck on offense. Houston also has DeAndre Hopkins who might have enjoyed the best season of all the wide receivers in the NFL simply because he catches everything thrown his way. Second-year DeShaun Watson is also a dynamic player who can match Luck on the field. Home field advantage certainly plays a role in this game as the Texans are 6-2 at home with an average winning margin of +8.9 PPG — and they out-gain their opponents by +52.2 net YPG. Houston’s defense flexes their muscles at home where they hold their visitors to just 17.0 PPG along with only 327.2 YPG. The Texans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games as a favorite laying no more than 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 opportunities to avenge a loss when playing on their home field. While Watson lacks the playoff experience of Luck, the core of this Texans team got playoff experience after winning two straight AFC South titles before injuries derailed their campaign last year. Expect home field advantage to make the difference between these two teams. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Houston Texans (102) minus the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (322) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (321). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (9-6) has won four straight games with their 25-16 win over Washington last Saturday where they failed to cover the -11.5-point spread they were laying as the favorite. Indianapolis (9-6) has won three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests with their 28-27 win over the Giants as a 10-point favorite. This is a de-facto playoff game for both teams: the victor wins the AFC South title and plays next week in the AFC playoffs while the winner goes home.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: It certainly is tempting to take Andrew Luck with the Colts in this game as he offers a significant edge at the quarterback position over Blaine Gabbert who was named the starter this afternoon after Marcus Mariota was officially ruled out with his stinger injury. This situation is a perfect example why it is often prudent to wait on the decision to invest in certain situations. And after the news of Gabbert being the quarterback, I had to get in the trenches with research to block my natural inclination to want to bet-against this quarterback that has failed to meet his prior expectations. All the while, I have watched most of the betting world take the Colts in this game — and that has compelled me to believe that it looks awfully easy to take that side of the equation right now. Well, let’s not forget that it is this Tennessee team that has the playoff team — and it is this Titans team with the better defense that will also have the benefit of home field and an energetic crowd for this nationally-televised night game. Tennessee is second in the NFL by allowing only 18.0 PPG — and that number drops to just 16.9 PPG when they are playing at home. The Titans have held their last three opponents to a mere 8.0 PPG while limiting them to just 269.0 total YPG. The 16 points that Washington scored last week was the most that this defense has allowed in three straight games. They limited the Skins to just 131 passing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Admittedly, this Tennessee defense is dealing with some tough injuries with defensive lineman Jurrell Casey, cornerback Logan Ryan and linebacker Brian Orakpo all out for this game. With everything at stake, head coach Mike Vrabel will be preaching the “next man up” — and it helps that this team is playing at home with these subs being energized by the crowd. The Titans are 6-1 at home this year with an average winning margin of +6.1 PPG. Tennessee is 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games as an underdog. The Titans have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of December. And in their last 9 games against fellow AFC South opponents, Tennessee has covered the point spread in 7 of these games. This team is further motivated to avenge their ugly 38-10 loss at Indianapolis back on November 18th. The embarrassment of that loss should ensure this team is primed and ready for this game. The Titans have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when avenging a loss where their opponent allowed at least 35 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least four touchdowns. Going full circle back to Gabbert, the fact is that he has been a capable professional quarterback since leaving the team that drafted him in Jacksonville. Gabbert completed 11 of 16 passes in relief in that game last month with the Colts albeit in garbage time. Gabbert has won his two starts for this team this season when playing for Mariota. He has completed 18 of 27 passes over his last two appearances for 219 yards for a nice 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average while completing 67% of those passes. He has two TD passes and only one interception in those games. He is capable — but perhaps his presence on the field will ensure that Tennessee commits to pounding the football. Running back Derrick Henry is in the zone right now with 492 rushing yards in his last three games. A decision to use heavy personnel with Henry leading the way can exploit the Colts’ Tampa-2 defense which is a scheme that is vulnerable to teams that decide to run the ball since the onus becomes so important on the weak side linebacker to be the primary help in stopping the rushing attack — and that is rookie Darius Leonard who has played very well this season but it is not quite Derrick Brooks or Lance Briggs at that position. Indianapolis is just 6-13-2 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home. Furthermore, the Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games coming off a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. Luck passed for 357 yards last week while leading an offense that gained 402 yards. But Indy has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 300 yards — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. The Colts have been much better at home in Lucas Oil Stadium: on the road, they are just 3-4 while being outscored by -0.4 PPG. Indianapolis had that stinker of a game last month where they were shutout on the road in Jacksonville. They have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games after winning at least eight of their last ten games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games after gaining at least 400 yards.

FINAL TAKE: I recommend holding out as long as possible to see if you can grab a +6 with the Titans — all anything at +4.5 points or higher is nice for this situation. The question is not “who will win this game” — it is whether or not Luck and company cover the point spread they are being required to lay with Mariota out against a team with a great home field edge and an even better defense that is through-the-roof motivated to avenge a loss and get back to the playoffs. The value is all on the side of the Titans given this situation. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (322) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (315) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (316). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (7-7-1) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 26-18 win over Cincinnati as a 10-point favorite last week. Baltimore (9-6) has won five of their last six games as well with their 22-10 upset win at Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 4-point underdog last Sunday. The Ravens clinch the AFC North with a victory — but things can get dicey if they lose this game.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: This is Cleveland’s de-facto Super Bowl this season. Not only do they want to sustain the momentum they have garnered in the second-half of this season but they would love to play the role of spoiler to the Ravens. And they would like to add one final piece of evidence that management should retain their interim head coach Gregg Williams as their full-time leader. The Browns have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. The transformation of this team has started with their rookie quarterback who has silenced all doubters with his outstanding play. Over his last six games, Baker Mayfield has thrown 14 touchdown passes while tossing just four interceptions to lead his team to five victories. His offensive line is doing a great job of protecting him as well as he has been sacked only three times in his 189 pass attempts in these last six games — and Mayfield has been sacked only once in his last 90 pass attempts. Cleveland averaged 7.47 Yards-Per-Play against the Bengals — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after averaging at least 6.5 YPP. The Browns defense is also playing quite well as they have held their last three opponents to just 18.0 PPG along with averaging just 298.7 total YPG. Cleveland is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog. Baltimore has only allowed 22 combined points in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games at home after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. The Ravens defense has been the best in football as they are holding their opponents to just 17.5 PPG along with only 284.0 total YP — but AFC North foes have had better success against them as they are scoring 20.8 PPG while wavering 344.6 total YPG so familiarity seems to help out in finding solutions to the problems they present opposing offenses. Baltimore has found success controlling the time of possession behind the rushing attack anchored by rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson. But the Ravens are scoring only 22.0 PPG while averring 350.7 total YPG over their last three games. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Lastly, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with fellow AFC North rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore was in a similar situation last season where they needed a win over Buffalo to clinch a playoff spot. The Ravens saw victory slip away with the last minute long-pass that spoiled their playoff hopes. Baltimore may win this game — but the pressure will make things a challenge. And they are facing a danger underdog who is brimming with confidence after upsetting the Ravens by a 12-9 score as a 3.5-point underdog in early October. 20* NFL Big Dog Surprise with the Cleveland Browns (315) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (328) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (327). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-9) has lost three straight games with their 27-14 loss at Oakland as a 2.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (11-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with their 22-10 loss at Baltimore as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Chargers have clinched a playoff spot and will the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs unless Kansas City gets upset at home against the Raiders as near two-touchdown favorites. Head coach Anthony Lynn may be scoreboard watching and may decide to rest his key starters (like QB Philip Rivers) if things get out of hand at Arrowhead. As it is, I do not expect an easy time of things for this Chargers team that has lost their last five games at Denver. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a double-digit loss. There are lingering concerns with this team moving forward after they managed to generate just 198 yards of offense against the Ravens. Over their last three games, the Chargers have averaged just 21.7 PPG along with only 297.7 total YPG. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Some of the issues on offense has been a breakdown with their offensive line. Rivers has been sacked 20 times over their last six games after enduring just 12 sacks in their first nine contests. That is an ominous sign for Rivers when now facing Von Miller and rookie phenom Bradley Chubb on the other side of the line of scrimmage. It is December as well — and the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the last month of the regular season. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after a double-digit loss to an AFC West rival. While this team has been eliminated from the playoffs, they should be motivated to play hard to end their season. It is likely Vance Joseph’s last game as the head coach with John Elway likely to sack him tomorrow. But Joseph is well-liked in the locker room and his players should play hard for him. Quarterback Case Keenum is also playing for his job with it being a disappointing season for after the Broncos signed him as a free agent in the offseason. The team will be without rookie running back Phillip Lindsey who suffered a season-ending wrist injury — but that creates space for their higher-drafted rookie Royce Freeman to show off his skills in this game. While Freeman lacks Lindsey’s pass-catching abilities, he is a tough inside runner — and the team can turn to Dovontae Booker in passing downs. Denver may be down to young players as receiving targets for Keenum but their defense should keep them competitive in this game. The Broncos have allowed their last three visitors to Denver to average just 323.7 total YPG. Their loss to the Raiders on Monday was helped by a -2 net turnover margin along with allowing a 99-yard punt return for a touchdown earlier in the first quarter that took the winds out of their sails. They did out-gain Oakland by +23 net yards in that game. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has suffered three straight upset losses to ruin their season — but they have played much better at home than they have on the road. This is a team that plays up or down to their competition. They should play one of their better games of the season in this one in their last home contest facing a divisional rival that they will be very confident against after they defeated them in LA last month by a 23-22 score. 25* AFC West Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (328) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (327). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (318) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (317). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (5-10) has lost three straight games after their 27-20 loss at Dallas as a 7.5-point underdog last week. Atlanta (6-9) has won their last two games after enduring a five-game losing streak with their 24-10 win at Carolina as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up loss. The Bucs held the Cowboys to just 232 yards of offense — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. This Tampa Bay team has finally solved some of their problems on defense as they have held their last three opponents to only 300.0 total Yards-Per-Game. This improved play has led the Bucs to play five straight Unders — and they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing at least two straight Unders. Jameis Winston has played better at the quarterback position since taking back the starting job for perhaps the last time. He completed 34 of 48 passes for 336 yards with a touchdown — and, perhaps most importantly, no interceptions. The Bucs have only committed five team turnovers in their last five games — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the month of December. This team will be motivated to avenge a 34-29 loss in Atlanta back on October 14th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with revenge. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 28 points. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. And while the Falcons have only allowed 24 combined points in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. They did allow Taylor Heinicke to pass for 295 yards against them last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 250 yards in their last game. Atlanta stays on the road for a second week where they are just 2-5 this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Lastly, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay head coach Dirk Koetter will likely be fired tomorrow on the annual “Black Monday” in the NFL. Winston is motivated to make a final good impression on the team who needs to make a decision whether to tender him an offer sheet to keep him from becoming a free agent. Expect a spirited effort from the Buccaneers. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Kickoff with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (318) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (317). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (320) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (319). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-10) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-12 loss at New England last Sunday as a 13.5-point underdog. Miami (7-8) has lost two in a row with their 17-7 upset loss at home to Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins are playing out the string with head coach Adam Gase and quarterback Ryan Tannehill likely to lose their jobs after this game. While both those individuals are competing for their next job, their lame duck statuses make this an uninspiring game for the rest of the roster and staff who are likely thinking about their offseason plans. That is not a good way for a team to end a season. As it is, Miami is just 12-25-1 ATS in their last 38 games after a point spread loss — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in eight of their last nine games on the road after a point spread loss. The Dolphins are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. To compound matters, Miami has been a dreadful road team this season where they are 1-6 with an average losing margin of -14.0 PPG while being out-gained by -131.9 net YPG. The Dolphins are allowing their home hosts to score 31.1 PPG along with averaging 402.9 total YPG. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road. Furthermore, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Buffalo where they are scoring just 15.2 PPG. Tannehill has struggled in these contests as he is 0-4 in his last four starts at Buffalo while throwing only two touchdown passes and getting sacked 16 times. Unquestionably, the cold weather will bother this Miami team — they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of December. While they rank 30th in the NFL by averaging 294.2 total YPG, that number has dropped to just 262.7 total YPG over their last three games. The Dolphins defense also ranks 30th in the league by allowing 391.7 total YPG. Those abysmal numbers explain why Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 51 games in the last two weeks of the regular season, the Dolphins has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of these contests. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 30 games after a loss where they covered the point spread as the underdog. And while that was the first point spread cover for the Bills in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. This Buffalo team sports an outstanding defense as they rank 2nd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 298.7 total YPG — and that number drops to only 291.6 total YPG when playing at home. This team has plenty to play for as they want to use this game as a building block into next season behind their rookie quarterback Josh Allen. Head coach Sean McDermott is underrated — not only has he overseen the development of a strong defense but he also gets his team ready to play against divisional rivals. While Buffalo lacks offensive weapons, they are averaging 371.2 YPG in their six games against AFC East rivals which is over 80 YPG above their season average. The Bills also hold their divisional opponents to just 279.8 total YPG. Buffalo has also covered the point spread in 44 of their last 80 home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Defensive lineman Kyle Williams has announced that he will retire after this game — and this added emotional element for this player who has served as the foundation of this defense for years should inspire his teammates to play hard so that he goes out a winner. The Bills will also be motivated by a 21-17 loss in Miami back on December 2nd. Buffalo is moving forward and will remain motivated to have a great game — while this Dolphins team looks to have already moved on. 25* AFC East Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (320) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (132) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (131). THE SITUATION: Oakland (3-11) has lost three of their last four games with their 30-16 loss at Cincinnati last week as a 3-point underdog. Denver (6-8) has lost two straight games with their 17-16 upset loss at home against Cleveland two Saturdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos have suffered two straight upset losses as their setback to the Browns was preceded by a 6-point loss at San Francisco as a 3-point road favorite in that game. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of the last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a point spread setback. The Broncos have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Denver is struggling to move the football with injuries to their offensive line impacting their rushing game. The Broncos are scoring just 18.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging only 301.7 Yards-Per-Game. The injuries are also piling up on the defensive side of the football. The lynchpin of their secondary, cornerback Chris Harris, was placed on Injured Reserve with a fibula injury and cornerback Isaac Yiadom is questionable tonight with a shoulder issue. Now Denver goes back on the road where they are 3-4 this season with an average losing margin of -26.8 net YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record overall — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against fellow AFC West opponents. The Broncos are also just 2-8-2 ATS in their last 14 games when playing on Monday Night Football. Oakland lost at Cincinnati last week despite out-gaining them in yardage while holding the Bengals to just 294 yards of offense. The Raiders held Cincinnati to just 3.97 Yards-Per-Play in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after holding their last opponent to no better than 4.0 YPP. Oakland is playing better football as of late as they defeated the Steelers while losing by just a touchdown at Kansas City to the Chiefs in their previous two games before their letdown against Bengals. They return home where they are scoring 24.8 PPG while averaging 403.3 total YPG which is much better than their 18.6 PPG and 343.9 YPG seasonal averages. The Raiders have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Oakland will also be motivated to avenge a 20-19 loss to the Broncos back on September 16th. Denver has nothing to play for having been eliminated from the playoff hunt — and it looks like head coach Vance Joseph is a lame duck who will be relieved of his duties on Black Monday next week. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Oakland Raiders (132) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (130) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (129). THE SITUATION: Seattle (8-6) looks to rebound from their 26-23 upset loss in overtime at San Francisco last Sunday. Kansas City (11-3) looks to bounce-back from their 29-28 upset loss to the Los Angeles Chargers back on December 13th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINT(S): Seattle should respond to their upset loss last week with a strong effort tonight. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss. Furthermore, Seattle is 35-17-3 ATS in their last 55 games after a straight-up loss in head coach Pete Carroll’s tenure — and this includes them covering the point spread in nine of their last thirteen games after a loss. The Seahawks did generate 168 rushing yards last week — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They return home where they are 4-2 this season while outscoring their opponents by +8.0 PPG — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home. Seattle is particularly a difficult place to play in prime time games as they have won outright sixteen of their last eighteen games at home played in prime time while averaging 29.1 PPG in those contests. Quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown 35 touchdowns with just nine interceptions in those eighteen prime-time games at home. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spare in 5 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Seattle is also 23-10-1 ATS in their last 34 games in the month of December under Carroll’s command. Kansas City is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread loss. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road after winning two of their last three contests. Defense remains a deep concern for this team after they allowed 407 yards to the Chargers last week with the complete inability to stop Philip Rivers in clutch situations. Kansas City is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They go back on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to score 34.1 PPG along with averaging 455.1 total YPG. Running the football is another problem for this team since they cut Kareem Hunt. Spencer Ware is capable but he is listed as doubtful tonight with his shoulder injury. They managed only 60 rushing yards last week against the Chargers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last game. And while KC has scored 26 points in all fourteen of their games this season, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 25 points in five straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Look for Seattle’s rushing attack to control the tempo and pace of this game while keeping Patrick Mahomes and the KC offense off the field. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (130) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (128) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (127). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (12-2) has won their last two games with their 12-9 win at Carolina last Monday as a 6-point favorite. Pittsburgh (8-5-1) comes off their big 17-10 upset win at home over New England as a 2-point in the high-profile nationally televised spot during the second window of afternoon games last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after playing on Monday Night Football. Some observers are worried about the Saints offense that has scored only 12.0 PPG over their last three games. I think much of that can be explained by the fact that all three of those games were on the road — and this is a team that has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing their last two games on the road. Now New Orleans returns home where they are 5-1 with an average winning margin of +14.0 PPG due to an offense that scores 38.0 PPG on the field turf of the Superdome. The Saints have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 30 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. New Orleans also looks to run the ball a bit more on the road to win the Time of Possession battle and prepare themselves for a potentially challenging situation away from home in the playoffs. The Saints rushed for 155 yards last week against the Panthers — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. New Orleans defense has steadily improved this season. They have held their last five opponents to just 12.0 PPG along with only 278.0 total YPG. Pittsburgh may be due for a big emotional letdown after finally conquering their Moby Dick in the Patriots last week. The Steelers covered the point spread for the first time in their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Pittsburgh gained 376 yards against the New England defense last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And in their last 9 games in the month of December, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have the best net point differential in the NFL right now. Don’t be surprised if their offense reawakens back in the Big Easy. 20* NFL Pittsburgh-New Orleans CBS-TV Special with the New Orleans Saints (128) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (127).  Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (125) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (126). THE SITUATION: Chicago (10-4) has won seven of their last eight games with their 24-17 win over Green Bay last week as a 5.5-point favorite. San Francisco (4-10) pulled off their second-straight upset victory with their 26-23 win in overtime versus Seattle.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: The 49ers were ripe to play the role of the spoiler last week after being humiliated by the Seahawks just two weeks prior in a 43-16 loss. But San Francisco has then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. The Niners generated 351 yards of offense in that victory — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. This team stays at home for the third straight week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents. Chicago has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. They should continue to build off their momentum after covering point spread expectations in two straight games. The Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning four or five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Chicago defense will make things very difficult on 49ers’ quarterback Nate Mullens — they are allowing just 17.7 PPG over their last three games while holding these opponents to just 291.7 total YPG. Mullens has been a nice surprise for the Niners but he has been able to pad much of stats in garbage time when his team has been trailing by a bunch of points. Chicago also leads the NFL in takeaways so don’t be surprised if their defense creates some scoring opportunities. The Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of December.

FINAL TAKE: While we should always be wary of road favorites laying more than a field goal, the Niners are due for a letdown after their emotional win over a divisional rival. Chicago’s defense travels and remains consistent from week-to-week. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (125) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (126). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (102) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101). THE SITUATION: Dallas (8-6) saw their five-game winning streak snapped last week with their 23-0 loss at Indianapolis. Tampa Bay (5-9) has lost two straight games with their 20-12 loss at Indianapolis as an 8.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Dallas returns home where they are 6-1 this season with an average winning margin of +6.4 PPG. Dak Prescott has been outstanding when playing at home where he owns a 71.1% completion percentage while throwing 13 touchdown passes to just three interceptions. The Cowboys are almost perfectly balanced between the pass and the run at home as well given their 223 pass attempts and 222 rushing attempts at home this season. Dallas has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Their defense has also registered 23 sacks at home this season. Speaking of the Cowboys’ defense, they have held each of their last six opponents to below 25 points. Tampa Bay had been dynamic on offense for much of the season but they have only scored 26 combined points over their last two games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a loss on the road — and they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games are a straight-up loss. The Buccaneers were out-gained by the Ravens by -119 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after being out-gained by at least 100 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay managed only 85 rushing yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Bucs allowed Baltimore to rush for 242 yards in that game — and they are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: A porous run defense is not a good characteristic to have when facing Ezekiel Elliott and this Cowboys offense. Quarterback Jameis Winston has lost his last thirteen starts on the road — and it looks unlikely he will be able to keep his team close in this one. 20* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Dallas Cowboys (102) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (113) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (114). THE SITUATION: Houston (10-4) has won ten of their last eleven games with their 29-22 win in New York against the Jets as a 7-point favorite last Saturday. Philadelphia (7-7) has won three of their last four games with their 30-23 win at Los Angeles against the Rams as a +13.5-point underdog last Sunday night.

THE SITUATION: The Eagles found life last week behind Nick Foles as they pulled the shocking upset over the Rams. However, this remains a team ravaged with injuries on both sides of the football and I expect a big emotional letdown for the defending Super Bowl Champions. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. The Eagles were out-gained by 26 net yards to Los Angeles as they gave up 407 yards in that game but benefited from a +2 net turnover margin. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now the Eagles return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Houston (10-4) should build off their continued momentum after their bad 0-3 start as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. The Texans are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. This team has outscored their last three opponents by +6.6 Points-Per-Game. Houston is 5-2 on the road this season — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles play an inspired game last week behind their Super Bowl MVP — but that effort may have said more about the problems with the Rams than it did about the possibility of another Philly resurgence behind Nick Foles. Look for Houston to pull the upset in this game — but take the points for some insurance. 25* NFL Non-Conference Underdog of the Year with the Houston Texans (113) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (123) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (124). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (8-6) has won four of their last five games with their 20-12 win over Tampa Bay as an 8.5-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (11-3) teaks the field again after their triumphant 29-28 upset win at Kansas City last Thursday where they were a +3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a win at home. With the switch to rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson under center, the Ravens have become very difficult to prepare for since they have moved to a run-oriented offense that is more akin to a college system than what any teams in the NFL operate. The Chargers do not have a player on their roster who can duplicate Lamar Jackson’s skill set in practice. Baltimore leads the NFL in rushing since Jackson became the starting quarterback. The Ravens rushed for 242 yards last week against the Buccaneers which helped them control the football for 37:10 minutes of that game. Baltimore is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. And while they out-rushed by Tampa Bay by +157 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after out-rushing their last opponent by at least +150 yards. Now the Ravens go back on the road where they are out-gaining their opponents by +74.6 net YPG. Baltimore is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the road — and they are also 18-7-4 ATS in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Los Angeles has gone from being under the radar to the hipster pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl after their high-profile victory over the Chiefs last week. But the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. But there are cracks in the armor for this group. The Los Angeles defense has allowed 26.3 PPG over their last three games which is 5.0 PPG higher than their season average. Their offense is averaging just 355.3 total YPG over those last three games as well which is almost 47 YPG below their season average. The Chargers return home where they have little native home field advantage playing in the smaller soccer stadium. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Baltimore defense and outstanding rushing attack should keep them in this contest. The Ravens have generated at least 198 rushing yards in five straight games. If the Chargers take a lead in this game, don’t be surprised if Baltimore then changes gears by turning to their Super Bowl-winning quarterback in Joe Flacco to attack the Chargers in the air. 10* NFL Baltimore-LA Chargers NFL Network Special with the Baltimore Ravens (123) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (108) minus the points versus the Washington Redskins (107). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (8-6) has won three straight games with their 17-0 win at New York against the Giants last Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite. Washington (7-7) snapped a four-game losing streak last week with their 16-13 upset win at Jacksonville as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS MINUS THE POINTS: The Skins have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up victory. Their win over the Jaguars may speak more to the sorry state of that team than it does about themselves. Behind Cody Kessler at quarterback, Jacksonville managed only 20 passing yards — those 20 passing yards are not a typo. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after not allowing more than 100 passing yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Skins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after not allowing more than 250 total yards in their last contest — and they are just 7-18-3 ATS in their last 28 games after not allowing more than 14 points. This Washington team is ravaged with injuries on both sides of the football. They are using third and fourth stringers at the guard position at this point while relying on quarterback Josh Johnson who preparing to play in one of the new spring leagues before being picked up off the street. While he passed for 151 yards last week and added another 49 rushing yards, the Titans will benefit from the fresh tape on him after he has been out of the league for years. The Skins are scoring only 15.0 PPG over their last three contests while averaging just 256.0 YPG — and they are allowing 27.0 PPG along with 343.3 total YPG over that span. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a point spread victory. The Titans have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. This Tennessee defense will be confident and licking their chops against this depleted Washington offense. The Titans allow only 17.0 PPG at home which has helped them win five of their six home games the season. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams from the NFC. Lastly, the Titans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of December.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee should generate enough points in this game back on their home field to cover the double-digit point spread in this game. 10* NFL Washington-Tennessee NFL Network Special with the Tennessee Titans (108) minus the points versus the Washington Redskins (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (332) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (331). THE SITUATION: Carolina (6-7) has lost five straight games after their 26-20 upset loss at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (11-2) enters this game coming off a 28-14 win at Tampa Bay last week as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Carolina has had this night circled on their calendar all season as it is their first opportunity to avenge being beaten three by the Saints last year. The Panthers lost both regular-season games to New Orleans before losing in the first round of the playoffs by a 31-26 score on the road in the Superdome. Carolina should play one of their best games of the season as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Panthers remain alive in the NFC playoff hunt but they must win this game tonight. Quarterback Cam Newton is not at full strength as he is dealing with a shoulder issue that is limiting his ability to throw longer passes. Yet going deeper into the numbers, it is the not offense that has been holding this team back. Carolina is averaging only 21.3 PPG in their last three games despite averaging a robust 437.7 Yards-Per-Game over that span — that is almost 60 YPG above their season average. The 393 yards they generated last week against the Browns was the lowest offensive output in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 375 yards in three straight games. The Panthers out-gained Cleveland last week by 50 yards — in fact, they have out-gained their last four opponents despite losing all four games on the scoreboard. Carolina’s run defense is playing quite well at this point of the season. Over their last three games, they are allowing only 60 rushing YPG while holding opposing rushers to just a 3.05 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Carolina returns home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games. New Orleans has covered the point spread in ten of their last eleven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Saints have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 40 games after a win on the road against a fellow NFC South rival. Despite their continued success, the New Orleans offense has slowed down a bit as they are averaging only 23.0 PPG along with just 262.0 total YPG over their last three games. Opposing defenses are finding success by focusing on taking away Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara in the passing game to make Drew Brees use his other less-talented passing targets. Defenses are also finding success by going into dime coverage on third down. These defensive adjustments are taking away the Saints explosiveness. Brees has passed for at least 200 yards just once in his last three games — and only six of his passes over those last three games have resulted in more than 20 yards. Lastly, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina has been snake-bit during their losing streak — they are a better team than their losing record indicates. The Panthers should have a few tricks up their sleeve for this first opportunity to avenge their three losses to the Saints last season which defined their year. New Orleans may win this game — but it is difficult to defeat a divisional rival on the road by this many points that they are laying. 25* NFC South Game of the Year with the Carolina Panthers (332) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (330) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (329). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (6-7) looks to rebound from their 29-23 overtime loss in Dallas last week as a 3.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (11-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped with their 15-6 loss in Chicago last Sunday night as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: I don’t like passing up the opportunity to take an underdog getting near two touchdowns — but I hate this situation for this Eagles team that lost their realistic chances to make the playoffs with that devastating loss to the Cowboys. This team is ravaged with injuries on both sides of the football leaving just a shell of last year’s Super Bowl team. Philadelphia’s defense will be without middle linebacker Jordan Hicks and cornerback Sidney Jones who are both out with a calf and hamstring injuries respectively. They join defensive end Derek Barnett, defensive tackle Tim Jernigan, linebackers Mychal Kendricks and Paul Worrilow, strong safety Rodney McLeod, and cornerbacks Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills who are already on Injured Reserve. As it is, the Eagles are surrendering 139.7 rushing YPG over their last five contests while allowing opposing rushers to average 6.06 Yards-Per-Carry. On offense, Carson Wentz will not play in this game as he deals with a sore back and will likely put on the shelf for the rest of the season. Philly will turn to last year’s Super Bowl Most Valuable Player in Nick Foles to be their quarterback — but without offensive coaches Frank Reich and John DeFilippo from last year, this team will be unlikely to come close to recapturing the magic from last year’s playoff run. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. It was a minor miracle that Philly was able to stay competitive against Dallas last week when considering that they surrendered 576 yards of offense while being out-gained by -320 yards. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 305 ads in their last game. Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents. Furthermore, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of December. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Rams rushed the ball only 13 times last week against the Bears for a mere 52 rushing yards — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. Now Los Angeles returns home where they are a perfect 6-0 with an average winning margin of +10.5 PPG while out-gaining their opponents by +96.1 YPG. Jared Goff has struggled as of late — but returning home will help where he owns an 18:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio while averaging 9.67 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Rams average 37.7 PPG at home — and their defense has allowed only 31 combined points in their last two games. LA has then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The struggling reigning Super Bowl champions are catching the Rams on the wrong week. While I rarely like laying this many points in the NFL, the injuries this Eagles team has sustained makes the chances of a blowout likely. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (330) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (329). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (327) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (328). THE SITUATION: New England (9-4) looks to bounce-back from being on the wrong end of the “Miracle in Miami” with their last second 34-33 loss to the Dolphins as a 9.5-point road favorite. Pittsburgh (7-5-1) has lost three straight games with their 24-21 loss in Oakland as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Steelers will be without running back James Connor again this week after he was downgraded to doubtful for this game. His absence (along with LeVeon Bell no longer being eligible to play for this team) cripples the Pittsburgh offense. In their three-game losing streak, the Steelers are only rushing the ball in 25% of their plays leaving them terribly imbalanced. They ran the ball only 19 times last week for a mere 40 rushing yards with Jaylen Samuels not able to be as effective as the main rushing back. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards. The Steelers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Over their last three games, they are scoring just 22.7 PPG — and their defense is giving up 27.0 PPG. Pittsburgh does return home but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of December. New England has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in the month of December. This is a must-win game for both teams — but it is Bill Belichick who is more reliable in getting his team focused to bounce-back after a loss. The Patriots are 45-19-1 ATS in their last 65 games after a straight-up loss — and they are also 39-19-2 ATS in their last 60 games after a point spread loss. New England stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Over their last three games, the Patriots are scoring 28.0 PPG while averaging 463.3 total YPG — they are outscoring their last three opponents by +9.0 PPG while out-gaining them by +120.6 net YPG. New England has also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Tom Brady owns the Steelers — he has led the Patriots to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with them while New England has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against them in Pittsburgh. In this important game for both teams off losses, expect both teams to stay true to form — and that means the Patriots play smart while the Steelers make costly mistakes. 20* NFL New England-Pittsburgh CBS-TV Special with the New England Patriots (327) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (328). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (308) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (307). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-6-1) has lost two straight games after their 21-7 loss at Seattle on Monday as a 3-point underdog. Miami (7-6) enters this game still buzzing off the “miracle in Miami” where they scored on a last-second hook-and-ladder play to pull a 34-33 upset over New England as a 9.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota should play well this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 37 games after a straight-up loss. Their loss on Monday was preceded by a 24-10 loss in New England the previous week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two straight games by at least two touchdowns. Returning home will help where they are 4-2 while out-gaining their opponents by +91.1 net YPG. The Vikings hold their guests to just 19.3 PPG along with only 270.2 YPG. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 16  of their last 22 games on their home field. There should also be a better atmosphere on the sidelines after head coach Mike Zimmer fired offensive coordinator John DeFilippo and replaced him with Kevin Stefanski. DeFilippo was not a good personality fit with the demanding Zimmer who has a different philosophy. Stefanski is very highly regarded around the league and appears to be a better fit with Zimmer’s style. He takes over an offense for a team that has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games in the month of December. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after an upset win over a divisional rival. Furthermore, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Additionally, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games off a home game where both teams scored at least 24 points. Now the Dolphins go back on the road where they are 1-5 with an average losing margin of -12.3 PPG while being out-gained by -116.3 net YPG. Miami allows their home hosts to score 29.5 PPG while gaining 400.3 total YPG. Defense is a concern for this team as they have surrendered at least 377 yards in four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing at least 375 yards in four straight games. They are allowing 430.3 total YPG over their last three contests. And in their last 11 games on the road, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread 9 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have endured a difficult stretch of games but remain alive in the NFC playoff hunt. Look for them to take out their frustrations on an overachieving Dolphins team that is not very good when playing away from south beach. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (308) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 20-14 loss at San Francisco as a 3-point favorite. Cleveland (5-7-1) has won three of their last four games with their 26-20 upset win at home over Carolina last week as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver was caught flat last week after winning three straight games and playing a 49ers team that will be missing the playoffs. But the Broncos have rebounded to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after suffering an upset loss on the road as the favorite. Denver had covered point spread expectations in their three previous games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after covering two of their last three games. Now after playing their last two games on the road, returning home should help this team. They are playing outstanding run defense right now as they have held their last seven opponents to just a 3.58 Yards-Per-Carry mark song with only 72.7 rushing YPG. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after the first month of the season. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents. Cleveland may be due for a letdown after pulling the upset at home against the reeling Panthers. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. That game finished below the 47.5-point Total — but Cleveland has then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And while the Browns have played their last two games Under the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after playing at least two straight Unders. Cleveland is flirting with danger having lost the turnover battle in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after suffering a -1 or worse turnover battle in two straight games. The Browns defense surrendered 393 yards to Carolina in their victory but they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They have allowed their last three opponents to rush for 108 rushing YPG while averaging 5.06 YPC — and those are scary numbers when facing this Broncos team that is 7th in the NFL by averaging 130.2 rushing YPG. Cleveland now plays their third game in their last four contests on the road where they are 1-5 this season while surrendering 29.0 PPG along with 412.2 total YPG. The Browns are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games on the road while failing to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting no more than 7 points. And in their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Expect this Browns team to struggle in the high-altitude in Denver where the Broncos typically enjoy a significant home-field advantage. Both those teams remain technically alive in the playoff race — but it is Denver that has a more realistic chance of qualifying for the playoffs if they win their remaining games. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (303) minus the points versus the New York Jets (304). THE SITUATION: Houston (9-4) looks to bounce-back from their 24-21 upset loss to Indianapolis last week where they were a 4-point favorite. New York (4-9) enters this Saturday game coming off a 27-23 upset victory at Buffalo as a 4.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston has rebounded to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less against a divisional rival. Now the Texans look to start another winning streak on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record at home. Houston has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow AFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 42.5 to 49. The Texans need to tighten up on defense after allowing 409.7 total YPG over their last three games — but they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three contests. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up victory. The Jets pulled the upset over Buffalo despite being out-gained by -120 net yards in that contest. The New York offense is riddled with injuries with running back Isaiah Crowell going on IR with a foot injury and wide receiver Quincy Enunwa being declared out with an ankle. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold is left without much help at the skill positions. He has only passed for 300 yards once in his ten starts and his lead running back is now third-stringer Elijah McGuire. The Jets have scored only 20.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging a mere 288.7 total YPG. Against the Bills, New York only gained 78 rushing yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last contest. Their defense also surrendered 368 yards in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t love laying a touchdown with teams playing on the road — but the Texans will be dialed in for this game after suffering the upset at home last week. The Jets are facing a stiff uptick in competition this week with an angry Houston team as opposed to the Bills last week. 10* NFL Houston-NY Jets NFL Network Special with the Houston Texans (303) minus the points versus the New York Jets (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (301). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-3) has won three straight games as well as nine of their last ten games with their 26-21 win over Cincinnati as a 17-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (11-2) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 27-24 win in overtime against Baltimore as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a victory at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least two straight games. The Chiefs stay at home on the short week giving them a nice situational advantage where they have won nine straight games. KC is 6-0 this season at home at Arrowhead Stadium while outscoring their visitors by +14.0 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Their defense has surrendered at least 24 points in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread 6 straight games after allowing at least 24 points in three straight games. The Chiefs also gave up 198 rushing yards to the Ravens — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Furthermore, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games against fellow AFC West opponents. Los Angeles is hit hard with injuries at running back with Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler listed as doubtful for this game with injuries which will make it difficult for either of them to play on a short week. The team will likely depend on Northwestern rookie Justin Jackson as their lead back tonight. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games played in the month of December. The Chargers are an impressive 6-1 on the road this year but they are only out-gaining these opponents by +7.0 net YPG. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in their last 4 meetings with the Chiefs. They are playing with revenge from a 38-28 loss at home to Kansas City in the opening week of the season where they were installed as 3.5-point favorites. But the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 28 points.

FINAL TAKE: Look for the Chiefs to pull away in this game with the benefit of staying at home on this short week where they have been dominant this season. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (134) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (133). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-5-1) has lost two of their last three games with their 24-10 loss at New England as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Seattle (7-5) has won three straight games with their 43-16 win over San Francisco as a 10-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory.  The Seahawks have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 30 points. Seattle is clicking with a run-oriented offense. During their three-game winning streak, they are scoring 33.3 PPG — and they have scored at least 27 points in seven of their last eight games. Quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown at least two touchdown passes in all eight of those games to complement their ground game that leads the NFL by averaging 148.8 rushing YPG. The Seahawks have allowed 454 and 476 yards in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight games. Seattle stays at home this week where they are outscoring their opponents by +6.2 PPG — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their 5 games at home. The Seahawks are also 22-9-1 ATS in their last 32 games in the month of December. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. This team is struggling on offense with Kirk Cousins not being able to do enough (especially in Prime Time games) to overcome a struggling offensive line along with a less than 100% Stephon Diggs who is slowed by a knee injury. The Vikings are scoring only 18.0 PPG over their last three games while generating only 320.7 total YPG. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Minnesota has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. That is not a good sign when facing this Seahawks team that has not covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Seattle. And in their last 9 appearances on Monday Night Football, the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread 7 times.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle certainly has the situational edge this week as they get to stay at home for the second-straight week while Minnesota travels west after a tough game on the east coast against the Patriots. These teams also seem to be moving in the opposite direction. Momentum along with home-field advantage should carry the Seahawks to a comfortable victory. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (134) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (133). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (120) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (119). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (11-1) has won three straight games with their 30-16 win at Detroit last week as a 10.5-point favorite. Chicago (8-4) saw their five-game winning streak snapped last week with their 30-27 upset loss in New York to the Giants as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago should respond with a strong effort in front of their home fans for this nationally-televised game. The Bears have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread setback. Chicago did generate 376 yards of offense with quarterback Chase Daniels under center — and they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Starter Mitchell Trubisky is slated to return tonight after missing the last two weeks with his injured shoulder. Now this team returns home where they are 5-1 this season while outscoring their visitors by +11.5 PPG and out-gaining them by +94.0 net YPG. The Bears’ offense has been potent when playing at home in Soldier Field where they are scoring 31.0 PPG while averaging 385.3 total YPG. Chicago is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games as the underdog. Los Angeles is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win. And while the Rams have scored at least 30 points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 25 points in four straight games. It remains questionable if the Sean McVay offense will still click on all cylinders when playing in the expected temperatures in the 20s tonight. Quarterback Jared Goff is a California kid who has limited experience throwing the football in cold conditions. As it is, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the month of December. And in their last 7 games against fellow NFC opponents, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: The cold weather should play right into the hands of the Bears playing at home. Expect a close game where having the points with the underdog will be very valuable. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (120) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (119). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (129) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (130). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (6-6) has won two straight games with their 28-13 win over Washington on Monday as a 5.5-point favorite. Dallas (7-5) has won four straight games with their triumphant 13-10 upset win over New Orleans back on November 29th as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys acted like they won the Super Bowl two Thursdays ago with their upset win over the Saints on that short week. We had Dallas in that game — and the fringe benefit to that victory was that it set up this letdown situation. The Cowboys have been fortunate to reach their 7-5 record given that six of their victories have been decided by one scoring possession. They are only out-gaining their opponents by +13.6 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in four straight games along with five of their last seven — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 39 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. They held the Saints to just 176 yards of offense last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 205 total yards of offense. Dallas is also just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing no more than 14 points in their last game. Philadelphia enters this critical game for them with momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning two straight games. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win at home against a divisional rival. They also have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after playing their last two games at home. Carson Wentz is heating up as he completed 27 of 39 passes against the Skins for 306 yards with two touchdown passes. Wentz loves facing NFC East foes against which he has a 7-1 record with a 17:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio while averaging 262.4 passing YPG along with a 106.2 Passer Rating. Wentz led his offense to 436 total yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 350 yards of offense in their last game. The defense has been the biggest issue for this team simply ravaged by injuries which was made even worse this week with the news that they placed cornerback Jalen Mills on Injured Reserve. The Eagles have allowed their last two opponents to average 6.03 and 7.31 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games after allowing at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. The Philly run defense remains stout as they rank 10th in the NFL by allowing 103.7 rushing YPG — and asking Dak Prescott to beat them with his arm is the preferred strategy anyways. The reigning Super Bowl Champions are tough in expected close games as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: As opposed to last week when the Cowboys had the gigantic chip on their shoulder hosting the Saints on a ten-game winning streak, it is the Eagles now with something to prove in this game after Dallas won their proverbial Super Bowl to (temporarily) quell all their insecurities. Philadelphia is looking to avenge a 27-20 loss at home to the Cowboys back on November 11th despite being 7.5-point favorites in that game. Not only have the Eagles covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games on the road when playing with same-season revenge but they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging an upset loss where they were home favorites laying at least a touchdown. 25* NFC East Game of the Year with the Philadelphia Eagles (129) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (124) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (123). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (2-10) has lost three straight games with their 43-16 loss at Seattle last week as a 10-point favorite. Denver (6-6) has won three straight games with their 24-10 win at Cincinnati last week as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: Returning home will help San Francisco after they played their last two games on the road. The 49ers are 2-3 at home this season but they are out-gaining these opponents by +60.6 net YPG. They average a robust 142.2 rushing YPG at home while converting on 45.3% of their 3rd down plays. Nick Mullens is playing well for this team under center as he has led an offense that has averaged 389.3 total YPG over their last three games. Against the Seahawks, Mullens completed 30 of 48 passes for 414 yards with two touchdown passes. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. Reducing turnovers is critical for this team after they suffered a -2 or worse net turnover margin in three straight games. It is encouraging that the 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after having a -2 or worse turnover margin in three straight contests. San Francisco has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of December. Denver has been leaning on their defense which has helped them play five straight Unders. But the Broncos have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after playing at least two straight Unders. Furthermore, Denver is just 5-12-1 ATS in their 18 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Broncos will be even more dependent on their rushing attack with the news of the season-ending torn Achilles injury to wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders. Denver rushed for 218 yards last week while out-rushing the Bengals by 1-7 nets yards. But the Bengals have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after rushing for at last 150 yards in their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after out-rushing their last opponent by at least 75 yards. Denver stays on the road again this week where they are being out-gained by 12.0 net YPG. There are growing concerns about the Broncos defense considering that they have allowed 439.0 total YPG over their last three games. Denver is only averaging 331.3 total YPG in those last three games.

FINAL TAKE: It is hard to win three straight games when you are being out-gained by more than 100 YPG in those contests. While the Broncos won the yardage battle versus Cincinnati, they were out-gained in their upset wins over the Chargers and the Steelers in the previous two weeks. Expect this to be a close game with the Niners being in a position to pull the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the San Francisco 49ers (124) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (123). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (106) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (105). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (10-2) has won five of their last six games with their 40-33 win at Oakland last week as a 14-point favorite. Baltimore (7-5) has won three straight games with their 26-16 upset win at Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread loss. The Chiefs did allow 442 yards of offense against the Raiders in that victory — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Defense remains the thorn in this Kansas City team’s side as they allowed 455 yards in their loss two weeks ago in Los Angeles to the Rams — but they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight games. KC has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now the Chiefs return home after being on the road for their last two games where they are a perfect 5-0 with an average winning margin of +16.2 PPG. Their defense plays much better at Arrowhead Stadium where they are giving up just 17.6 PPG as compared to the 33.7 PPG they allow on the road. KC also allows 49.4 fewer YPG at home when compared to their season average. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games when laying 3.5 to 7 points on their home field. Additionally, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against fellow AFC opponents — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of December. Baltimore may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win on the road. Baltimore’s defense shined in Atlanta last week by holding the Falcons to just 131 yards of offense. But the Ravens are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. And while the Ravens have allowed just 34, 67, and 48 rushing yards in each of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in three straight games. Lamar Jackson continues to impress since being pressed into starting duty at quarterback with his threat with running the football giving a burst of energy to the Baltimore offense. The Ravens generated 25 first downs last week while controlling the time of possession for over 39 minutes — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a dominating effort where they had at least 25 first downs while dominating then clock for at least 34 minutes. But Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: This is the first big challenge for Jackson as a starter in the NFL playing in a hostile environment against a playoff team. I don’t like the dynamic for this Ravens team with Joe Flacco healthy again and looming on the sidelines. The Chiefs are undervalued when playing at home where their defense has been more effective. 20* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Kansas City Chiefs (106) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (107) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (108). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-6) looks to rebound from their humiliating 6-0 shutout loss on the road to Jacksonville last week despite being a 4-point favorite. Houston (9-3) has rattled off nine straight victories with their 29-13 win over Cleveland last week as a 5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis should be very feisty in this game after being shutout — they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. If there is anything encouraging from that loss to the Jaguars, it was the continued improvement of the Colts defense that held Jacksonville to just 211 yards of offense. Over their last three games, Indianapolis has allowed only 13.3 PPG along with just 262.7 total YPG. Indy is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after not allowing more than 250 yards of offense in their last game. Additionally, the Colts have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Furthermore, Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a low-scoring game where neither team scored more than 14 points. This is a challenge for this team when facing this ferocious defense that has registered 34 sacks for the season. But this strong Colts’ offensive line has allowed only 14 sacks this season — so Andrew Luck should have an opportunity to find receivers this afternoon. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The Colts are also 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 games against their AFC South rivals — and this includes them going 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Houston. The Texans generated 384 yards of offense last week against the Browns — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But a concern for this team is their defense that allowed 428 yards to the Browns with rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield gaining 397 of those yards in the air. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 305 yards in their last game. This shapes up to be a higher scoring game with the Total set in the low-50s — but this is not the type of game that this team prefers. The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Furthermore, Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of December under head coach Bill O’Brien.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans won the first meeting between these two teams back on September 30th by a 37-34 score despite that game being played in Indianapolis. The Colts have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. Don’t be surprised if Indy pulls the upset — but take the points for some nice insurance in what should be a close game. 25* AFC South Underdog of the Year with the  Indianapolis Colts (107) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (102) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (101). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (6-6) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 26-22 win over the New York Jets as a 10.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (4-8) ended their seven-game losing streak with their 6-0 shutout victory over Indianapolis as a 4-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS MINUS THE POINTS: The Jaguars’ defense may have been inspired to make a statement with head coach Doug Marrone’s decision to end the Blake Bortles era last week with him being benched for Cody Kessler at quarterback. Jacksonville stepped up t shutout Andrew Luck and the Colts’ offense while holding them to just 265 yards of offense. But this remains a lost season for the Jaguars who need to win their final four games just to get to an 8-8 record. Sure, Jacksonville can also try to motivate themselves to play the role of the spoiler — but that seems unlikely for this group at this point particularly with them playing on a short week. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after an upset victory as a home underdog. Jacksonville is also 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Jags held Indy to averaging just 3.90 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 4.0 YPP in their last game. The bigger problem for this team remains their offense now reliant on Kessler running the show. He passed for just 150 yards in that game leading an offense that generated a mere 211 yards. Jacksonville was out-gained by 54 net yards even in that victory. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. While the Bortles narrative has received most of the attention this season, one of the biggest reasons why this team has underachieved this season has been that they have ravaged by injuries. Jacksonville has a whopping fifteen players on Injured Reserve at this point of the season including three of their opening day starters on the offensive line headlined by their All-Pro left guard Andrew Norwell. Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 1-5 this season while being outscored by -9.3 PPG while allowing their home hosts to score 27.0 PPG. The Jags are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road. Furthermore, Jacksonville is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against fellow AFC South opponents — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Titans. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. The Titans held the Jets to just 124 passing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Tennessee stays at home on this short week where they are 4-1 this season — and they are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games at home. Additionally, the Titans have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by 7 points or less. The Tennessee defense is a top-nine unit in yards allowed while ranking 6th in the league by holding their opponents to only 20.4 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: I would put more credence into the potential role of the spoiler for the Jaguars if they had a whole week to prepare — instead, I suspect they rested on their laurels after stepping up last week against the Colts. Quarterback Marcus Mariota is playing better football as of late as he gets back to 100% health. Look for this tough Titans team to take care of business on their home field. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (102) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (379) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (380). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-5) has lost two straight games after their 31-23 win at Dallas back on Thanksgiving as a 7-point underdog. Philadelphia (5-6) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 25-22 win over the New York Giants as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDSKINS PLUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia needed to rally from a 19-11 halftime deficit to get by the lowly Giants in that game. This is a team that has been decimated with injuries on both sides of the football. I count ten players on their original two-deep roster that have been placed on Injured Reserve. To make matters worse, running back Darren Sproles is not yet ready to take the field and defense will be without their best linebacker in Jordan Hicks who is listed as doubtful tonight with his calf injury. This is simply not the same team as the one that won the Super Bowl last year — and it also appears that the loss of assistant coaches Frank Reich and John DeFilippo who both took promotions in the offseason was significant. For those waiting for the Eagles to simply flip the switch and play better with the Super Bowl winners still on their roster, keep in mind that they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games at home. Furthermore, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC East rivals — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of December. Perhaps most noteworthy for tonight’s situation, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when favored laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Washington is going to play well tonight as they remain alive in the NFC East race and have had extra days to prepare for a divisional rival who swept them last season. The Skins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread setback. Additionally, Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing three of their last four contests. The Skins allowed 404 yards of offense against the Cowboys — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Colt McCoy did play pretty well at quarterback in his first start of the year playing for the injured Alex Smith. McCoy completed 24 of 38 passes for 268 yards with two touchdown passes — and the Skins have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. But it was McCoy’s three interceptions that did Washington in against Dallas. The Skins endured a -3 net turnover margin in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after suffering -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Washington stays on the road where they are 3-2 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Skins have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 meetings with the Eagles — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 trips to Philadelphia. Expect them to play their struggling divisional rival tough tonight in what remains an important game in the NFC East race. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Washington Redskins (379) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (380). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (354) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (353). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-3) has won seven of their last eight games with their 45-10 win over Arizona last week as a 14-point favorite. Pittsburgh (7-3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 24-17 upset loss at Denver as a 3-point favorite. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-3) has won seven of their last eight games with their 45-10 win over Arizona last week as a 14-point favorite. Pittsburgh (7-3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 24-17 upset loss at Denver as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh returns home after playing the last two games on the road where they should play much better than their last two flat performances. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. Big Ben Roethlisberger completed 41 of 56 passes for 462 yards against the Broncos last week while leading the offense to produce 527 total yards of offense which is a good harbinger for things to come tonight. Pittsburgh is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game. Back at home, the Steelers are scoring 35.4 PPG while outscoring their opponents by +10.6 net PPG. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning their last game by at least two touchdowns. The Chargers dominated the hapless Cardinals last week by out-gaining them by +265 yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after out-gaining their last opponent by at least +200 yards. LA generated 414 yards of offense in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Chargers are also 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Their offense took a major hit in that game when running back Melvin Gordon suffered a knee injury that will keep him out of tonight’s contest. That is not a good sign with the calendar turning to December where this team has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in this month.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has scored at least 33 points in four of their five games at Heinz Field this season. With the Chargers being without one of their key offensive weapons in Gordon, Los Angeles lacks the firepower to keep up with an angry Steelers team. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers (354) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (353). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (366) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (365). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-6) has lost three straight games after their 35-20 loss to Cleveland as a 1-point underdog last week. Denver (5-6) has won two straight games after their 24-17 upset win over Pittsburgh last Sunday as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THEN BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: Denver has pulled off two straight upsets as their underdog win over the Steelers last week came on the heels of their 23-22 upset victory in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 7-point dog. But the Broncos may be due for a letdown as they go back on the road. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning two of their last three games. The Broncos allowed 527 yards of offense in their game with Pittsburgh — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now Denver hits the road again where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games away from home. The Broncos have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games against AFC foes. And in their last 8 games in the month of December, Denver has failed to cover the point spread 6 times. Cincinnati is quickly losing control of their season — and things got worse this week with the announcement that quarterback Andy Dalton will miss the rest of the season with his thumb injury. But look for this team to play hard for head coach Marvin Lewis. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing three of their last four games. Cincinnati has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Jeff Driskel takes over at quarterback for this team — and he was solid last week in relief by completing 17 of 29 passes for 155 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions. He will have the benefit of wide receiver A.J. Green returning to the field this afternoon after he has missed the last few games with a foot injury. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against fellow AFC opponents — and they are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games in the month of December under Lewis.

FINAL TAKE: With the Broncos likely to experience a letdown traveling east for this early kickoff, taking the home team getting more than 4 points is too good to pass up. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (366) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (365). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (362) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (361). THE SITUATION: Miami (5-6) has lost two straight games with their 27-24 loss at Indianapolis last week as a 9-point underdog. Buffalo (4-7) has won two straight games with their 24-21 upset victory over the Jaguars last Sunday as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami has played their last two games on the road but they return home where they are 4-1 this season. The Dolphins’ has a healthy Ryan Tannehill back at quarterback — and they score a healthy 24.0 PPG while averaging 349.2 total YPG. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing their last game on the road. Furthermore, while the Dolphins have allowed 7.11 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in two straight games. Buffalo (4-7) has pulled off two straight upset victories with their win over Jacksonville preceded by their 41-10 win in New York against the Jets where they were a touchdown underdog. But the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two games in a row. Buffalo gave up 226 rushing yards last week to the Jaguars — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. The Bills success over their last two games by running the football — they have gained 167 and 212 rushing yards in each of their last two games. But Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in two straight games. The Bills go back on the road where they are 2-4 while getting outscored by -8.9 PPG. Buffalo scores only 14.8 PPG away from home while averaging a mere 262.2 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Miami will also have revenge on their mind as they lost their last game with their AFC East rivals by a 22-16 score back on December 31st. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Miami Dolphins (362) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (361). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (302) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (301). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (10-1) has won ten straight games after their 31-17 win over Atlanta last Thursday as an 11.5-point favorite. Dallas (6-5) has won three games in a row with their 31-23 win over Washington at home last Thanksgiving as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas is playing with plenty of confidence right now — and the trade of Amari Cooper seems to be exactly what the doctor ordered to open up their offense. Cooper was spectacular on Thanksgiving by catching 8 balls for 180 yards with two touchdowns passes. Dallas generated 404 yards against the Skins in that game — not only have the Cowboys covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game but they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. Dallas has covered the point spread in each of their last three games — and they are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after a point spread win while they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in three straight contests. The Cowboys stay at home where they are 4-1 with an average winning margin of +7.2 PPG while out-gaining their opponents by +55.8 net YPG. Dallas scored 26.2 PPG at home — and they have not allowed more than 28 points in all eleven games they have played this season. They have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 44 home games as the underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games getting 3.5 to 7 points. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 home games after winning three of their last four games. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite in their last game. And while the Saints have raced out to at least a two-touchdown lead in each of their last three games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after holding double-digit halftime leads in three straight games. And while New Orleans has scored at least 30 points in five straight games, they have then failed to cover the points spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 25 points in their last five games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on the road after scoring at least 25 points in their last three contests. Furthermore, the Saints have benefited from at least a +2 net turnover margin in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games are enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in at least three straight games. And in their last 8 games played on Thursday Night Football, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints may win their eleventh game in a row tonight — but they are likely in for a close game with a confident home team with plenty of momentum. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Dallas Cowboys (302) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (274) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (273). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (5-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 38-10 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog. Houston (7-3) has won seven straight games with their 23-21 win at Washington as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: Tennessee fell behind by a 24-3 score at halftime to the Colts which is not a good sign for them now. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after allowing at least 24 points in the first-half of their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after trailing by at least two touchdowns at halftime of their last game. Additionally, Tennessee is just 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now the Titans stay on the road where they are 2-4 this season while being outscored by -3.4 PPG. The anemic Tennessee offense scores only 16.3 PPG while averaging just 297.2 total YPG. It does look like quarterback Marcus Mariota will get the start tonight but he may not be at 100% given his stinger injury. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games on the road. The Titans have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight trips to Houston. The Texans defense has stepped up their level of play as they are allowing only 17.5 PPG since Week Five. After playing on the road for the last two weeks, Houston returns home where they are 3-1 with an average winning margin of +6.0 PPG. Houston averages a robust 383.0 YPG at home while holding their opponents to just 19.7 PPG along with only 317.5 total YPG. Over their last three games, the Texans are scoring 28.0 PPG. This team will motivated to avenge a 20-17 upset loss at Tennessee back on September 16th as a 3-point favorite — and they have covered the points spread in 26 of their last 39 home games when playing with revenge. And in their last 5 games against AFC opponents, Houston has covered the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans will have additional motivation tonight as it is their first game since the passing of their owner Robert C. McNair. While he may not have been the most popular owner in the league (given some of his comments), the team will be playing with plenty of emotion. Look for this surging Houston team to overwhelm their AFC South rival. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Houston Texans (274) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-4-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 25-20 loss last Sunday night in Chicago to the Bears as a 2.5-point underdog. Green Bay (4-5-1) has lost three of their last four contests with their 27-24 loss in Seattle last Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has been incredibly resilient under head coach Mike Zimmer. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 35 games after a straight up loss. They return home where their defense thrives by holding their visitors to just 19.0 PPG along with 273.4 total YPG. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota is also a decisive 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games on their home field. Additionally, the Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of November. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. And while they allowed 378 yards of offense to the Seahawks last week, they are then just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay stays on the road this week where they are winless in five games while being outscored by -8.2 PPG in those games due to them allowing 29.8 PPG with the fewest points allowed being 27 to their home hosts. The Packers are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games away from home. Furthermore, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games in the month of November — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games against NFC North foes.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t like where this Packers team is headed this season with head coach Mike McCarthy seemingly now a lame duck while Aaron Rodgers ignores his play selections at the line of scrimmage. Minnesota is also reeling — but their vastly superior roster depth should help them do what it takes to win this game in convincing fashion. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (264) minus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (263). THE SITUATION: Carolina (6-4) has lost two straight games with their 20-19 upset loss at Detroit as a 4-point favorite last week. Seattle (5-5) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 27-24 win over Green Bay last week as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a crucial game for head coach Ron Rivera and his team. After losing at Pittsburgh by 31 points before their upset loss at Detroit, Carolina returns home where they are a perfect 5-0 with an average scoring margin of +9.8 PPG as compared to their 1-4 record when playing on the road. The turnover battle is dramatically different for the Panthers at home where they have a +10 net turnover margin as compared to their -5 net turnover margin when playing on the road. Carolina has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing their last two games on the road. Rivera should see a strong effort from his team. The Panthers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread setback. Furthermore, Carolina has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of November. Seattle has a difficult travel situation having to go out east to play at 1 PM ET contest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. Defense is becoming a problem for this team as they have allowed 28.3 PPG along with 396.7 total YPG over their last three games. They allowed 311 passing yards to the Packers last week after giving up 307 passing yards the previous week to the Rams. Not only are the Seahawks just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 300 passing yards in two straight contests. They did hold Green Bay to just 48 rushing yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 50 rushing yards in their last game. Seattle is allowing their opponents to average 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry — and that is an ominous number when facing these Panthers that average 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina has won ten straight games at home while averaging nearly 31 PPG over that stretch and allowing just 21 PPG in those games. Look for the Panthers to take their frustrations out on this young Seattle team. 20* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Carolina Panthers (264) minus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.