At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (312) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (7-6) has won four of their last five games after their 31-0 victory at Houston as a 10-point favorite on December 5th. New England (9-4) won their seventh game in a row with their 14-10 upset win at Buffalo as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 45 games after a double-digit win against an AFC South Rival. The Colts generated 389 yards against Texas to outgain them by +248 net yards. Indy has covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Colts' offense has started to crank with Carson Wentz more comfortable running head coach Frank Reich’s offense. Indianapolis has scored at least 30 points in seven of their last eight games. Since Week Six, this team leads the NFL in points scored and touchdowns and they are second in rushing yards. They held Houston to just 141 total yards — and they are 24-7-1 ATS in their last 32 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They return home where they are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Colts may only have two wins in their seven games against teams with a winning record — but they have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. New England had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a game where they did not score more than 14 points. Some might be surprised that the red hot Patriots are the underdogs in this game — but it relates to rookie quarterback Mac Jones’ home/road splits this season. At home, Jones is averaging 267.1 passing YPG with 13 touchdown passes and five interceptions. He has a Quarterback Rating of 102.5 in those seven home games. But in his six games on the road, Jones sees his QBR drop to 87.7. Even after tossing out his 2 of 3 passing performance in the wind in Buffalo in his last game, Jones is still only averaging 196 passing YPG in his other five road games with just three touchdown passes and three interceptions. New England ran their way to victory against the Bills in that game as they gained 222 yards on the ground. But the Patriots are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last contest. New England is also just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games in December under head coach Bill Belichick. The Patriots will be without Damien Harris in this game as he is out with a hamstring injury.  

FINAL TAKE: The Colts surge has been led by running back Jonathan Taylor — they are 7-0 straight-up when he rushes for at least 100 yards. The Patriots have a great defense — but they are vulnerable against the run as they allow 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry and rank 18th in the NFL by giving up 114 rushing YPG. 25* AFC Game of the Month Indianapolis Colts (312) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (302) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (301). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-5) won their third game in their last four with their 37-21 win against the New York Giants as a 9.5-point favorite last week. Kansas City (9-4) has won six straight games after their 48-9 win against Las Vegas as a 10-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: I thought Los Angeles was in a letdown situation last week against a Giants team that had been playing well on defense — but the Chargers dominated with 423 yards of offense which helped them win the yardage battle by +107 net yards. Los Angeles had a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Chargers stay at home where they are scoring 30.6 Points-Per-Game and averaging 408.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. The Chargers are not at full strength with rookie left tackle Rashawn Slater out due to his being on the COVID list. Wide receiver Keenan Allen was out with COVID last week — but he is back. Running back Austin Ekeler should also be able to play despite an ankle injury. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Chiefs benefited from a +5 net turnover margin to easily defeat the Raiders last week. Kansas City has won the turnover battle in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after enjoying a +1 or better net turnover margin in five straight games. The Chiefs will likely be without defensive tackle Chris Jones who is on the COVID list with the team not optimistic he can clear the protocols in time for tonight’s game. The Kansas City’s defense made their transformation this season when Jones moved back to defensive tackle after the team picked up defensive end Melvin Ingram from Baltimore. The Chiefs will also be without starting linebacker Willie Gay, Jr. who is on the COVID list, and starting cornerback L’Jarius Sneed who is dealing with a personal family issue. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against the Chargers. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (302) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (129) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (130). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-4) ended a three-game losing streak with a 37-5 victory against Jacksonville as a 14-point favorite last Sunday. Arizona (10-2) has won two games in a row after their 33-22 win at Chicago as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles dominated the Jaguars last week by outgaining them by +221 net yards. The Rams have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 road games after scoring at least 35 points in their last game. Los Angeles covered the point spread for the first time in their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread just once in their last three games. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. What was encouraging from the Jaguars game was that Los Angeles ran the ball 28 times for 128 yards. That was the most rushing attempts and yards for the Rams in four games. They will be without Darrell Henderson tonight with him being on the COVID list — but Sony Michel is capable in taking on the lead back role. Their 6.3 Yards-Per-Play average is the best in the NFL — and they average 6.3 YPP on the road with the offensive execution not dropping off. Los Angeles is 4-2 on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. The Rams are also 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games in the NFC — and they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games in December. Arizona has won three of their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7games after winning three of their last four games. The Cardinals host this game where they are just 3-2 this season with an average winning margin of +1.4 net Points-Per-Game. They are only scoring 22.6 PPG at home. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Cardinals have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals won the first meeting between these two teams by a 37-20 score in Los Angeles as a 3.5-point underdog. The Rams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games against the Cardinals — and they have covered their last 6 games against them in Arizona. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (129) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (127) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (128). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-8) lost their sixth contest in their last seven games after their 33-22 loss at home to Arizona as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (9-3) won their second game in their last three with a 36-287 upset win against the Los Angeles Rams as a 2-point underdog on November 28th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago outgained the Cardinals by +72 net yards last week but a -4 net turnover margin dug them into a hole they could not climb out. Andy Dalton threw four interceptions in the game — and he will not be playing tonight with Justin Fields recovered from the rib injury that kept him out last week. Fields is playing better since offensive coordinator Bill Lazor took over calling the plays for him — he is not allergic to calling plays that take advantage of Fields’ mobility. The Bears have not covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in their last three games. Chicago signed fullback Ben Mason off the Baltimore practice squad which is a good indicator that they are going to offer Fields an extra blocker and threat with the football out of the backfield after he thrived in a similar role in college at the University of Michigan. The Bears have outgained their last three opponents by +88.3 net Yards-Per-Game. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a bye week. And while the Packers have covered the point spread in ten of their twelve games this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in at least eight of their last ten games. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Green Bay may be 5-0 at home — but they are only outgaining their guests by +33.8 net Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers gained only 323 total yards in their 24-14 win at Chicago on October 13th. While the Bears may be getting outscored by -7.1 net PPG this season, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games at home in the second half of the season when hosting a team getting outscored by at least -6.0 PPG. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (127) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (123) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (124). THE SITUATION: New York (4-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-9 loss at Miami as a 6.5-point underdog last week. Los Angeles (7-5) has won two of their last three games with their 41-22 win at Cincinnati as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: Despite their losing record, New York is playing much better on defense as of late. They have held five of their last six opponents to no more than 20 points. The Giants have forced multiple turnovers in five of their last eight games. Since Week Seven, New York is allowing just 16.0 Points-Per-Game and 4.8 Yards-Per-Play which both rank fourth-best in the NFL during that span. Opposing quarterbacks have a Passer Rating of 70.7 since Week Seven as well — the fifth-lowest mark in the league. The Giants should play better this week as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. New York has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after losing two of their last three games. And they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. With quarterback Daniel Jones still nursing a neck injury, the Giants will have Mike Glennon under center once again this week. Glennon was just OK last week — he completed 23 of 44 passes for 187 yards with an interception. One of the problems for the Giants is that Jones is not putting up much better numbers at this point in his career. Glennon is a capable backup with a completion percentage of 60.8% in 1049 career passing attempts. He has 44 touchdown passes to just 28 interceptions. The Giants have been ravaged with injuries but they are getting healthier with Saquon Barkley getting 17 touches last week in his third week back since missing over a month. It was encouraging for New York to limit the Dolphins to just 68 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Giants have been reliable on the road where they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games as an underdog. Los Angeles has been inconsistent this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Chargers are also only 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games after a game where they scored at least 30 points. After taking a 24-0 lead against the Bengals, Los Angeles let the Bengals back in the game with Cincinnati scoring a potential game-tying touchdown before they missed the two-point conversion. The Chargers then recovered a fumble on their 39-yard line which they returned for a touchdown early in the fourth quarter to take a nine-point lead and re-take control of the game. That upset victory was Los Angeles’ first point spread cover in their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home after only covering the point spread once in their last three games. The Chargers return home where they are only 3-3 — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 range. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games at home when favored. The Chargers’ challenge is complicated with a COVID outbreak in their locker room. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is out and wide receiver Mike Williams is among a handful of players questionable as they look to clear quarantine protocols.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and New York has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. The Giants’ defense should keep them in this game against a Chargers’ team that had allowed at least 24 points in seven straight games before the Bengals only scored 22 points. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (123) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (102) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (101). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-7) has lost two games in a row after their 29-27 upset loss at Detroit as a 7-point favorite last week. Pittsburgh (6-5-1) snapped a three-game winless streak with a 20-19 upset win against Baltimore as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has a losing record despite outscoring and out-gaining their opponents this season. All seven of their losses have been by one-scoring possession. They have scored at least 26 points in five straight games. This is as near a “gotta have it” game for the Vikings as there will be. They have typically played well under situations like this under head coach Mike Zimmer. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 42 of their last 61 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss to a division rival. And in their last 5 games after a loss by three points or less, the Vikings have covered the point spread 4 times. Minnesota has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two games in a row. Quarterback Kirk Cousins will not have wide receiver Adam Thielen tonight with him being out with an ankle injury — but his productivity outside the Red Zone has declined this season. Dalvin Cook is a game-time decision to return to action earlier than expected from his shoulder injury — but Alexander Mattison is a very good running back if he does play. Cousins is enjoying a great season, albeit under the radar. He is completing 68.4% of his passes for over 3300 yards with 25 touchdown passes and just three interceptions. He has not tossed an interception in 246 straight pass attempts. Pittsburgh may be due for an emotional letdown after grinding out a win against their arch-rivals in the Ravens. As it is, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss. Additionally, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. The Steelers go back on the road for the third time in their last four games — and doing so on a short week will be a challenge. Pittsburgh has surrendered 41 points in each of their last two games away from home — and they are giving up 27.0 PPG and 389.4 total Yards-Per-Game on the road. Injuries have made things worse for the Steel Curtain — they are without cornerback Joe Haden and linebacker Robert Spillane. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in December. The Steelers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against NFC foes.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have been a disappointment in losing seven closes games this season — but they have finally completed a difficult stretch with four of their last five games being on the road. The last time they played at home, they upset Green Bay — and this will be an angry and embarrassed team after they shipped the Lions their first win of the year. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (102) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (7-4) has won two of their last three games after their 31-6 win at New Orleans as a 7-point favorite last week. New England (8-4) won their sixth straight game in a row with their 36-13 victory against Tennessee as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: My initial thought for this situation was to prefer Buffalo but I do like to make final decisions with fresh eyes. The biggest questions for tonight's game are (1) how significant of an impact will the weather have on the game and (2) how significant is the line movement in reaction to the weather? After waiting for the early afternoon forecast to make my final calls, the temperates appear destined to be in the 20s (wind chill in the teens) with winds 25-35 MPH and gusting up to 40 MPH. Precipitation does not seem likely by game-time -- so probably not blizzard conditions. I think there is a significant edge at Quarterback tonight. Josh Allen played four years in the cold at Wyoming. His big arm can cut through the wind a bit more -- and he has a few more years of big games under his belt. I like Mac Jones but his arm strength is not one of his best qualities (accuracy, decision-making, intellect) -- and his background is Florida then Alabama. Will these be the coldest temperatures he has ever played in? As it is, the New England offense only averages 309.0 total Yards-Per-Game on the road — a drop-off of -46.3 net YPG from their season average. Jones averages only 178 passing YPG in his five starts on the road with his 231 passing yards at Houston being his season-high away from home. The Patriots' recent winning streak has been fueled by them winning the turnover battle in each of those six games. They have forced four turnovers in two straight games while committing just one turnover themselves in those two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 8 games after enjoying a +3 or better turnover margin in each of their last two games. New England surrendered 270 rushing yards to a Titans team without Derrick Henry last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Buffalo is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a victory by 14 or more points. The Bills are also 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Buffalo gained 361 yards against the Saints last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Bills held New Orleans to just 190 total yards — and they are 9-1-2 ATS after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Buffalo held the Saints to just 44 rushing yards as well — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Patriots will lean heavily on running the football on the road and in these weather conditions — but the Bills are fourth in the NFL by allowing just 3.9 rushing Yards-Per-Carry. Buffalo returns home where they are outscoring their guests by +8.8 Points-Per-Game and outgains them by +135.4 net Yards-Per-Game. The Bills are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games at home — and they are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in December. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. 25* AFC East Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City (458) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (457). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (7-4) has won four games in a row after their 19-9 win against Dallas as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Denver (6-5) has won three of their last four games after their 28-13 upset win against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City has won their last two games by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning their last two games by 10 or more points. The Chiefs gained 370 yards against the Cowboys' defense — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Kansas City is on a winning streak due to the improved play of their defense. Acquiring linebacker defensive end Melvin Ingram from Pittsburgh allowed Chris Jones to move back inside to defensive tackle where he prefers — and he has thrived. The Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight games — and they have held their last three opponents to 10.0 PPG and just 292.0 total YPG. Don’t count out a defense coached by Steve Spagnuolo to improve as the season moves on. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in December. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. The Chiefs stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Denver is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a win by 14 or more points. The Broncos offense is limited with Teddy Bridgewater under center. They are scoring just 20.7 PPG — and they have scored under 20 points in five of their last eight games. Bridgewater completed 11 of 18 passes for 129 yards last week. While a quarterback that is allergic to taking chances is a good fit with a defense-first team, his unwillingness to throw the ball down the field makes it difficult to stay competitive with a team that averages 25.5 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City (458) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (457). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (463) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (464). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-5) has lost two of their last three games after a 28-13 upset loss at Denver as a 2.5-point favorite last week. Cincinnati (7-4) has won two in a row after their 41-10 win against Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles outgained the Broncos last week by +55 net yards after holding Denver to just 302 yards. Denver benefited from a 70-yard interception returned for a touchdown to flip the score. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss by 14 or more points. Los Angeles is playing close games — two of their losses were by just three points apiece. They are outgaining their opponents by +33.6 net Yards-Per-Game. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Cincinnati dominated their arch-rivals in the Steelers last week which may set them up for an emotional letdown. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home. And while Cincinnati has scored at least 73 combined points in their last two weeks, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 25 points in their last two games. Led by Joe Mixon, the Bengals rushed for 198 yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Chargers give up a lot of rushing yards — but that is because they are focusing on defending the pass. Los Angeles only allows 331.2 total Yards-Per-Game on the road. Cincinnati is only outgaining their opponents by +7.3 net YPG despite their 7-4 record — and they are getting outgained when playing at home. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road (Chargers: 3-2 on the road). Four of Cincinnati’s wins have come against Detroit, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh twice. They are just 3-4 against the rest of their competition. And Joe Burrow has been sacked 13 times in the last four weeks — the second-most of all quarterbacks during that span. Now here comes the Chargers’ Joey Bosa.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles is 35-16-4 ATS in their last 55 road games as an underdog. 25* AFC Underdog of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (463) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (301) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (302). THE SITUATION: Dallas (7-4) has lost two straight games and three of their last four after a 36-33 upset loss at home to Las Vegas as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. New Orleans (5-6) has lost three in a row after their 31-6 loss to Buffalo as a 7-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: The injury update for the Saints this morning was not good. Running back Alvin Kamara will miss his fourth straight game — he is the team’s best weapon on offense. New Orleans will also be without their bookend tackles with Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk out again this week with knee injuries. It is not just that the Saints are missing starting tackles, it is that Armstead and Ramczyk are two of the best offensive linemen in football. These absences simply cripple this offense that is already without top wide receiver Michael Thomas and starting quarterback Jameis Winston. But it is not just the offense that is missing key players. Their best pass rusher, Marcus Davenport, is out once again with a shoulder. New Orleans is also without defensive end Tanoh Kpassagnon and linebacker Kaden Ellis. This is just too much for head coach Sean Payton to overcome in what was already a rebuilding season. Taysom Hill gets the start at quarterback — but he was unable to win the job in the preseason over Jameis Winston. Hill has thrown only eight passes with 20 rushing attempts this season. If he was such a dangerous threat as a dual-threat, he would be averaging more than 4.5 touches of the football per game (when healthy). Who is he going to throw to? And it is not as if Hill is the only mobile quarterback in the league. Having to defend running quarterbacks is standard fare in the NFL. New Orleans is scoring only 18.7 PPG and averaging 295.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games. They have allowed 31 PPG in their last four games — and they have surrendered 167.5 rushing YPG in their last two games. The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after a double-digit loss at home. They are 1-3 at home this season where they have failed to cover the point spread 3 times. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Dallas is getting healthier with wide receivers Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb expected back on the field and defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence healthy again. The Cowboys need a win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points. Dak Prescott played much better last week after looking rusty two weeks ago. He completed 32 of 47 passes for 375 yards with two touchdown passes despite not having Cooper and Lamb as targets. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while they gave up 509 yards to the Raiders with 366 coming in the air, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after allowing at least 350 passing yards. Dallas goes back on the road where they are 3-2 — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored by up to seven points. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against NFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the NFC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Dallas-New Orleans Fox-TV Special with the Dallas Cowboys (301) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (273) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Washington Football Team (274). THE SITUATION: Seattle (3-7) lost their fifth game in their last six after their 23-13 upset loss to Arizona as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (4-6) pulled off their second straight upset victory with their 27-21 win at Carolina as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS: This is a fishy line at first glance. The Football team has just upset Tampa Bay and Carolina — and now they host a reeling Seahawks team but they are not favorite? This is a “gotta have it” game for Seattle — and they have been pretty reliable in these situations under head coach Pete Carroll who has overseen this franchise with the most active consecutive winning seasons in the NFL. Bill Belichick does not hold that distinction. Nor does Mike Tomlin or Andy Reid or Sean Payton. It’s Pete Carroll. Seattle is 36-16-4 ATS in their last 56 games after a straight-up win. The Seahawks have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to a NFC West opponent. Furthermore, Seattle has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after losing two in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing three of their last four games. Quarterback Russell Wilson has struggled in his two games since returning, perhaps prematurely, from his finger injury. He did play better last week against the Cardinals than he did in his first game back against Green Bay in a shutout loss. In hindsight, those were two tough assignments against the stout Packers and Cardinals defenses. And the Seahawks only had the ball for 19:38 minutes in the game. In his third week back, I do expect Wilson to look closer to his old self. Seattle has covered the point spread in 41 of their last 61 games after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games. The Seahawks go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog. Seattle’s defense has steadily improved this season — they have held their last three opponents to 15.7 PPG. Washington controlled time of possession against the Panthers in their six-point victory — they were on offense for 35:53 minutes. The Football Team rushed for 190 yards in the win — but they have failed to cover the point spread 19 of their last 25 home games after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last game. Washington allowed only 297 yards to Carolina but they did give up 6.2 Yards-Per-Play. The Football Team has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after allowing at least 6.2 YPP in their last game. Washington returns home where they are 2-3 while allowing 26.7 PPG and 391.2 total YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games as an underdog getting up to seven points. Washington has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Football Team has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games on Monday Night Football. Wilson has led the Seahawks to victory in ten of his twelve starts on Monday Night Football — and Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on Monday Night Football. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (273) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Washington Football Team (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (271) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (272). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (6-5) has won two of their last three games after a 13-10 win at home against Detroit as a 14-point favorite last week. Baltimore (7-3) has also won two of their last three games with their 16-13 win at Chicago as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland has not looked very good in the last two weeks. They were flat against the winless Lions last week despite wanting to make a statement after their embarrassing 45-7 loss in New England the prior week. But injuries have played a role in the Browns’ subpar play — and they are getting healthy again. Nick Chubb returned to action last week to run the ball 22 times for 130 yards. Now both All-Pro right tackle Jack Conklin and running back Kareem Hunt are expected to play tonight. Cleveland is a different team when their potent ground game is at full strength. The Browns have scored 41 or more points twice this season. They should raise their level of play in this AFC North showdown as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win at home where they did not cover the point spread. Cleveland held the Lions to only 245 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. Baker Mayfield has been in a funk — but he loves playing against the Ravens. In his six career starts against Baltimore, Mayfield has thrown for at least 300 yards four times — and he has averaged 297 passing YPG in those six games. The rushing attack of the Browns travels — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, Cleveland has covered the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread win. And while Baltimore gave up 353 yards to Bears’ defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Ravens return home after a two-game road trip — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 57 games after playing their last two games on the road. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points. The Ravens have failed to score more than 17 points in three of their last four games. Lamar Jackson is expected to play tonight (he claimed to be “120%” confident he will play) after missing last week because of a non-COVID illness. But the Ravens have yet to demonstrate they have the full fix to the eight-man front that Miami deployed against them in their loss on Thursday Night Football that took away Jackson’s rushing lanes and forced him to pass. Baltimore scored only 10 points with 304 total yards against the Dolphins.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November. 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Cleveland Browns (271) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (270) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (269). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (8-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 34-31 upset loss at Minnesota as a 1-point favorite last week. Los Angeles (7-3) looks to rebound from a 31-10 upset loss at San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite back on November 15th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Green Bay has been very reliable in bounce-back situations coming off a loss. Since 2019, the Packers are 7-0 off a loss while averaging 30.0 Points-Per-Game and topping the 31-point threshold five times. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after a point spread loss. The Packers should play better on defense after allowing the Vikings to generate 408 yards of offense. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after giving up at least 30 points in their last contest. The Packers did gain 467 yards against the Minnesota defense last week — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after gaining at least 350 yards. Green Bay has their ground game cranking behind A.J. Dillon who will have an elevated role this afternoon given the injury to Aaron Jones. The Packers are averaging 118 rushing YPG in their last four contests. They return home to Lambeau Field where they are 4-0 this season with an average winning margin of +15.0 PPG. Green Bay holds their guests to 11.0 PPG and 316.0 total YPG. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has an 18-2 record straight-up at home in his last 20 starts which makes the Pack a surprising underdog in this one. The Packers have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Part of the brilliance of Rodgers is that he is so careful with the football. He has thrown only one interception in his last 198 pass attempts (knock on wood …). Los Angeles may lead the NFL in Yards-Per-Play — but their only victory against a team with a winning record is Tampa Bay. The Rams have lost two in a row which halted a four-game winning streak — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning four or five of their last six games. I think “offensive genius” Sean McVay has become too enamored with the dopamine hit he receives when Matthew Stafford connects on a long pass. In his jouissance of no longer having to manage the play of Jared Goff, McVay has abandoned the play-action rushing attack that made the offense so effective in propelling the Rams’ Super Bowl run. The Rams only rushed for 52 yards against the 49ers — and they have failed to generate more than 94 rushing yards in three of their last four games. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 90 yards in their last game. I also think that McVay has overrated the talents of Stafford. I like Stafford — and I think he has incredible natural ability. His decision-making was sometimes questionable with Detroit — and he certainly lacks big-time playoff experience even going back to his days with Georgia. I think he got lulled into forcing the football to Calvin Johnson when those two stars were paired together — and I think he matured as a quarterback and as a leader after Johnson’s premature retirement. The addition of Odell Beckham worries me because it may play into McVay’s dopamine addiction for the long ball and because Stafford may succumb to the pressure to get him the football rather than taking what the defense offers him. Maybe the Rams are the organization where Beckham will stop being failed by everyone around him — or perhaps Beckham is part of the problem. Granted, they need him now after the season-ending injury to Robert Woods. Stafford’s four interceptions in his last two starts are as many as he had in his first eight starts with his new team. He has also been sacked seven times in the last two games. These mistakes have helped their opponents score 17 and 21 points in the first half in the last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after allowing at least 17 points in the first half in two straight games. Maybe McVay fixed these problems during the bye week — but the Rams are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when favored — and Green Bay has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. The Packers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (270) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (263) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (264). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (5-4-1) looks to rebound from a 41-37 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Cincinnati (6-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 32-13 victory at Las Vegas as a 2.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Pittsburgh defense was hit hard with injuries last week but head coach Mike Tomlin expects T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick to be back for this game (but cornerback Joe Haden appears doubtful to play). Fitzpatrick is an outstanding safety — but getting Watt back on the field is a game-changer. The Steelers are 0-4 without Watt this season — and he loves playing against the Bengals. Pittsburgh has a 7-1 record with Watt against Cincinnati — and he has eight sacks, 12 quarterback hits, eight more tackles for loss, and three forced fumbles in those contests. The encouraging aspect of the Steelers' loss last week was the offense scoring 37 points. Ben Roethlisberger completed 28 of 44 passes for 273 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in the loss in his return to action after being out with COVID. In his last five starts, Roethlisberger has nine touchdown passes — and he is the only quarterback in the league without an interception during that span. Pittsburgh is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Steelers are a reliable road team under Tomlin. They are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games. Pittsburgh is also 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games as an underdog. Cincinnati only gained 288 total yards in their victory against the Raiders last week despite controlling the clock for 37:20 minutes in that game. They averaged a mere 4.2 Yards-Per-Play. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Cincinnati has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Joe Mixon led the way for the Bengals last week as he spearheaded a ground game that generated 159 rushing yards — but Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Bengals return home where they have a 2-2 record but they are getting outscored by -4.9 PPG and getting outgained by -17.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Cincinnati only scores 22.3 PPG at home. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers will be motivated to avenge a 24-10 upset loss at home to Cincinnati as a 2.5-point favorite on September 26th. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing with revenge on their minds from a loss at home by at least 14 points. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Pittsburgh Steelers (263) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (109) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (110). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (6-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 41-15 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (5-5) lost their third straight game with their 40-29 loss at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: Buffalo should respond with a strong effort tonight as they are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a loss by 14 or more points. The formula for success for head coach Sean McDermott tonight will likely be to play conservative, get a lead, and then don’t risk losing it. After getting upset on the road to Jacksonville by a 9-6 score three weeks ago, the Bills finally made a schematic change by putting quarterback Josh Allen under center to operate a more conventional rushing attack. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has probably been asking Allen to do too much — especially out of the shotgun formation. Buffalo also incorporated running back Matt Brieda in more rushing plays against the Jets. The result was a 45-14 victory where they ran the ball 24 times for 139 yards. But the Bills got away from that last week as they ran the ball just 13 times in their loss to Colts while having their offense on the field for just 22:13 minutes. Running the football will help the Buffalo offensive line and keep the energy up for their defense. The Bills have been outstanding on defense for most of the season — they should bounce-back after giving up 370 yards last week. Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after surrendering at least 30 points in their last game. They are allowing just 17.6 PPG along with 283.7 total Yards-Per-Game — and they hold their home hosts to 16.0 PPG and 310.8 total YPG in their five road games. New Orleans only gained 323 yards last week in their loss at Philadelphia. The Saints’ offense is ravaged with injuries in their first year in the post-Drew Brees era. Running back Alvin Kamara will miss his third straight game with a knee. Mark Ingram is questionable with his knee injury — and he was simply a rotation running back with Houston before being re-acquired by New Orleans midseason. Quarterback Jameis Winston is out the season with his torn ACL and Taysom Hill is not 100% with a foot injury that limits his mobility. The offensive line is banged up — and wide receiver unit lacks a true number one with Michael Thomas not playing this year. Quarterback Trevor Siemian was effective early coming on in relief in the Saints’ upset win against Tampa Bay — but he is winless in his three starts while regressing in his quality of play as opposing defenses build their book up against him. He completed only 22 of 40 passes for 214 yards with two interceptions last week. That 5.4 yards-per-attempt passing average he had against the Eagles is sub-standard. He is ineffective if placed into obvious passing downs when playing from behind. New Orleans. The Bills are 3-2 on the road this season — and the Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games in non-conference play. They should overwhelm a struggling and undermanned Saints’ team that head coach Sean Payton has been using mirrors to get by with this season. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (109) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (477) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478). THE SITUATION: New York (3-6) has won two of their last three games after their 23-16 upset victory against Las Vegas as a 3-point underdog back on November 7th. Tampa Bay (6-3) has lost two in a row after their 29-19 upset loss at Washington as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 37 of their last 54 games on the road after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. The Giants are likely undervalued right now — they have three losses to Washington, Atlanta, and Kansas City decided by a combined seven points. Injuries have hit this team hard but they hope to get left tackle Andrew Thomas and running back Saquon Barkley back on the field tonight. New York’s defense has steadily improved this season. They have held their last three opponents to just 13.0 PPG and 314.7 total YPG. The Giants have been very consistent when playing on the road where they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 27 games. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games as an underdog. The Buccaneers have suffered two straight upset losses after losing in New Orleans as a 3.5-point road favorite on October 31st. Tom Brady misses his security blankets in wide receiver Antonio Brown and tight end Rob Gronkowski. Brown remains out tonight but Gronkowski could return to the field with his being listed as questionable — although how effective he will be with his sore back remains an issue. Tampa Bay gained only 273 yards against the Football Team. Maybe the Buccaneers can simply flip the switch and cover a double-digit spread tonight — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after suffering two straight upset losses. Tampa Bay has not covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games. Tampa Bay misses Vita Tea on their defensive line who has been out with a knee injury. He is doubtful to play tonight. The Buccaneers' defense has allowed 122 rushing YPG in their last four games after holding their first five opponents to just 46 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored — and they are just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games in November. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (477) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (476) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (475). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-20 upset loss to Minnesota as a 3-point favorite last week. Pittsburgh (5-3-1) had their four-game winning streak snapped with a 16-16 tie with Detroit as a 6-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: I consider the Steelers a bit overrated — and they are ravaged with injuries for this one. Big Ben Roethlisberger will play after being removed from the COVID list — but he has not practiced in a couple of weeks. Granted, Roethlisberger is not a gym rat — but I still expect him to be rusty after being in quarantine. Left guard Kevin Dotson is out with a foot injury. The Pittsburgh defense is without their three best players in linebacker T.J. Watt, safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, and cornerback Joe Haden. Those losses on defense are devastating. As it is, Pittsburgh is being outscored and outgained this season. They are getting outgained by -46.7 net Yards-Per-Game on the road. The Steelers winning record is due to their 5-0-1 record in games decided by one-scoring possession. Mike Tomlin’s team could easily be 3-6 instead of 5-3-1. Their record is also skewed when considering that six of their nine games have been at home at Heinz Field. They are scoring just 18.3 PPG and averaging 301.3 total YPG in their three road games. Pittsburgh did game 387 yards last week against the Lions — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after playing their last game Under the Total including failing to cover the point spread in four of their five games this season after an Under. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 games after an upset loss at home as the favorite. The Chargers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles gave up 278 passing yards to the Vikings last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 250 yards in their last game. The good news for the Chargers is that they expect defensive end Joey Bosa to be back on the field after being on the COVID list. On their home field, Los Angeles is scoring 27.2 PPG while averaging 380.6 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against fellow AFC opponents. Against a depleted Steelers’ defense, Los Angeles should reach their home scoring average in the high-20s — and that is a mark that will be hard for Pittsburgh to match. The Steelers have not scored more than 17 points in five of their games. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (476) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (461) minus the point(s) versus the Chicago Bears (462). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 22-10 upset loss at Miami as an 8.5-point underdog on November 11th. Chicago (3-6) has lost four in a row after their 29-27 loss at Pittsburgh as a 7-point underdog on November 8th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINT(S): This situation probably triggers a 25* play on Baltimore if Lamar Jackson is playing in this game. But Jackson has been declared out this morning with a non-COVID illness — so it will be Tyler Huntley under center. I still like the Ravens now as a small favorite in this game (albeit, as a 20* play). Baltimore likes the former Utah Utes’ quarterback because he is mobile and can operate the basic schemes designed for Jackson. In offensive coordinator Greg Roman, I trust, for this one. Look for Huntley to be very active in the run game this afternoon against a depleted Bears defense missing Khalil Mack (out the season) and Akeem Hicks. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score at least 15 points in their last game. The Ravens defense surrendered 290 passing yards to the Dolphins last week — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Additionally, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when favored by 7 points or less. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a straight-up loss. The Bears have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread win — and in their last 16 home games after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of these games. I expect rookie QB Justin Fields to struggle in this one. He has thrown seven interceptions this season while being sacked 27 times. He has struggled against man-to-man coverage and pressure — and the Ravens will offer heavy doses of both this afternoon. Baltimore is third in the NFL by playing man-defense 40% of the time. They blitz 30.4% of the time on passing downs, the fifth-highest mark in the NFL — and their 31.8% pressure rate is ninth-best in the league. The Bears are coming off their bye week — but they are winless in seven games played off the bye under head coach Matt Nagy and they are just 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games coming off a bye. They are banged up on defense, as mentioned above, and they have surrendered 586 rushing yards in their last four games. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. While it is a disappointment that Jackson is not playing, that is why the line dropped to the Ravens laying just a point or so. John Harbaugh will find a way for his team to win this game. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Baltimore Ravens (461) minus the point(s) versus the Chicago Bears (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (312) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (4-5) looks to rebound from their 43-3 loss at Dallas an 8-point underdog on Sunday. New England (6-4) has won four in a row with their 45-7 win against Cleveland as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: The Falcons have lost two of their last three games after catching an angry Cowboys team that was coming off their worst game of the season in an upset loss at home to Denver. Despite Atlanta being hit hard by injuries, rookie head coach Arthur Smith has done a good job with this team. After losing their first two games of the season by 49 combined points, the Falcons won four of their next six games with each of those contests decided by one-scoring possession. If there was a silver lining from Sunday’s blowout loss, it was that Matt Ryan left the game in the third quarter. The veteran quarterback will be rested and ready for this game on a short week. Atlanta went into halftime trailing by a 36-3 score — but they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after trailing by at least three touchdowns at halftime in their last game. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. A blocked punt returned for a touchdown and a -2 net turnover margin did not help matters — but Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after suffering a -2 or worse turnover margin in their last game. The Falcons only gained 214 total yards in the loss — but they are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. And while the Cowboys gained 431 yards against them last week, Atlanta has then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. New England is peaking in terms of market value after their 38-point win against the Browns — but they are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a straight-up win. The Patriots have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home — and they are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread win. Additionally, New England is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Patriots have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Now they go back on the road where they are 4-0 — but they are gaining just 309.3 total YPG in those contests. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones has played much better than expected under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels — but New England has supported him with a quality rushing attack. The Patriots rushed for 184 yards last week after gaining 151 yards on the ground in their previous game at Carolina. The Patriots are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: After playing their last two games on the road, Atlanta returns home which gives them a situational edge in this matchup. The concept of selling high and buying low when handicapping football gets thrown around too loosely in my opinion — but this is a genuine opportunity to take advantage of that axiom fading a Patriots team that opened around a 4-point favorite but has been bet up to a touchdown or so favorite on the road on a short week. The market is overreacting to the blowout results both teams incurred last week. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month on the Atlanta Falcons (312) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (266) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (265). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (3-5) has lost five of their last six games after their 31-17 upset loss at home to Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite last week. Los Angeles (7-2) had their four-game winning streak snapped last week with their 28-16 upset loss to Tennessee as a 7-point favorite last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: Matthew Stafford had his worst game in a Los Angeles uniform by completing 31 of 48 passes for 294 yards but with two interceptions with one returned for a touchdown. The Rams’ offensive line struggled to slow down the Tennessee four-man rush and Stafford’s play reminded Detroit Lions fans of the quarterback they would often witness. Stafford will be without Robert Woods for the rest of the season after suffering a torn ACL on Friday. That injury came a day after the team signed Odell Beckham. I am skeptical but keeping an open mind on how Beckham will work with the Rams. There may be early growing pains in getting Stafford and Beckham on the same page. Stafford struggled at times keeping the Lions' offense in synch under the pressure of feeding Calvin Johnson the football. Los Angeles only gained 347 total yards last week with head coach and play-caller Sean McVay abandoning the run game and the play-action game that brought him so much initial success with this offense. Scoring 38 points against the New York Giants and Houston Texans is great — but the Rams have not scored more than 28 points in their other four games since peaking in a 34-24 win against Tampa Bay the last Sunday night in September. Those 28 points were scored at home against Detroit, by the way. Los Angeles did hold the Titans to just 194 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after not allowing more than 200 yards in their last game. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. The Rams are also 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games in November under McVay. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after getting upset by an NFC West rival in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival as a home favorite. The 49ers only gained 337 yards against the Cardinals but they only had the ball on offense for 23:13 minutes. They averaged a healthy 6.6 Yards-Per-Play last week after averaging 8.6 YPP the previous week in a 33-22 win at Chicago. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. San Francisco has lost eleven of their last twelve games at home — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog. They may be winless at home this season but they are outgaining their opponents by +13.2 net YPG. The Niners are outgaining their opponents by +27.5 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 appearances on Monday Night Football — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 meetings with the Rams while sweeping them in both divisional games the last two seasons. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (266) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (264) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (263). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (5-3) had their two-game losing streak snapped with a 23-16 loss at New York against the Giants as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (5-4) has won two in a row after their 13-7 win against Green Bay as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Las Vegas dominated the statistics against the Giants last week. They won the first down battle by a 24-16 margin — and they outgained them by a 403 to 245 margin in yards. A -2 net turnover margin did the Raiders in — including a 41-yard interception returned for a touchdown by the Giants. Las Vegas returns home where they are 3-1 this season while outgaining their opponents to +85.8 net Yards-Per-Game. The Raiders have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as an underdog. Las Vegas has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Kansas City beat a Packers team playing without Aaron Rodgers despite only gaining 237 yards and getting outgained by -64 net yards. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not giving up more than 14 points in their last contest. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in November. Furthermore, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against AFC West rivals — and the Raiders have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against division foes. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Las Vegas Raiders (264) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (255) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (256). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (3-5) looks to rebound from a 34-31 loss in overtime as a 7.5-point underdog against Baltimore last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 27-24 victory at Philadelphia as a 1-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: All of Minnesota’s losses this season have been by a touchdown or less this season. They should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 59 games after a straight-up loss. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two in a row. Minnesota was outgained by -182 yards against the Ravens after being outgained by -141 yards to Dallas in their previous game — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after getting outgained by at least 100 points in two straight games. The Vikings are still outgaining their opponents overall this season. They have forced multiple turnovers in four straight games — and they lead the NFL by averaging 3.4 sacks per game. Minnesota has also scored at least 30 points in four of their games. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is completing 68.8% of his passes on the road with a 111.3 Passer Rating — the fourth-best QB mark on the road this season. He has ten passing touchdowns on the road and no interceptions. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record a home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Los Angeles generated 445 yards last week against the Eagles en route to outgaining them by +114 net yards. But the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +100 yards. Los Angeles returns home where they are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Chargers have the worst run defense in the NFL as they are allowing 162 rushing YPG. Minnesota should have success in this department as they average 143 rushing YPG on the road — and they have generated 550 rushing yards in their last four games. Vikings running back Delvin Cook may come out with a big game in response to the off-the-field problems he had this week. Los Angeles is also banged up in their secondary with at least two cornerbacks out and more defensive backs questionable with injuries.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in November — and Minnesota has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog. Don’t be surprised if the Vikings win this game — but take the points for some insurance. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Minnesota Vikings (255) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (114) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (113). THE SITUATION: Miami (2-7) snapped their seven-game losing streak with their 17-9 win against Houston as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. Baltimore (6-2) has won six of their last seven games with their 34-31 win in overtime against Minnesota as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami should build off their recent momentum as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a point spread win. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games in the second half of the season. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when getting 7.5 to 14 points as an underdog. The biggest difference between Brian Flores' team this season and last year has been the turnover game. Miami led the NFL by forcing 29 turnovers last season. The Dolphins have forced only 13 turnovers in their nine games this year — but they have also committed 18 turnovers to saddle them with a -5 net turnover margin. Now they host a Ravens team that has only forced seven turnovers this season — and they have not had more than one takeaway in six straight games. If Miami can just stay even in the turnover battle, they should be competitive tonight. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now after playing their last four games at home, the Ravens return to the road where they have scored 23 or fewer points in two of their three games. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when laying 7.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is a game-time decision with his finger injury that kept him out last week. Jacoby Brissett is one of the better backups in the league — so if he plays, the Dolphins should still be competitive after he led them to victory against the Texans last week. Brissett also kept Miami alive in a tight game in Las Vegas earlier in the season before the Raiders won in overtime by a 30-27 score. The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November — and the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in November. 10* NFL Baltimore-Miami Fox-TV Special with the Miami Dolphins (114) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (476) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (475). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (4-3) has won three games in a row after their 15-10 upset victory at Cleveland as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Chicago (3-5) has lost three in a row with their 33-22 loss to San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh is playing better football due to improved play from their offensive line. After not rushing for more than 75 yards in their first four games, the Steelers have rushed for at least 115 yards in their three-game winning streak while averaging 127 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Rookie running back Najee Harris has been the main beneficiary as he has gained 294 rushing yards in these last three games. They have averaged 368.7 total YPG during their winning streak — a +38.4 net YPG bump over their season average. The improved rushing attack has taken some of the pressure off Ben Roethlisberger. While the veteran quarterback is in decline, he still can be effective in leading the passing game. He has not thrown an interception in 99 straight passes. Pittsburgh should build off their momentum tonight. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win by six points or less. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning two games in a row. Head coach Mike Tomlin’s team continues to be built around their defense. They have held their last three opponents to 16.3 PPG and 329.7 total YPG. Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 10th in the NFL in the DVOA metric by the Football Outsiders. They rank 6th in DVOA run defense which will offer a challenge to the Bears’ offense. Chicago is 30th in offensive DVOA and last rushing DVOA. Rookie Justin Fields may have played his best game as a pro last week against the 49ers. He completed 19 of 27 passes but for just 175 yards. Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor finally got Fields using his legs in some designed run plays as he gained 103 yards on ten carries. Head coach Matt Nagy was not on the sidelines last week due to his testing positive for COVID. Nagy is back with the team tonight — so he may impose the offensive game plan for Patrick Mahomes he borrowed from Andy Reid when getting the Bears coaching gig. After failing with Mitchell Trubisky, Nagy has not gotten much from Fields. The former Ohio State star is completing only 59.5% of his passes and averaging 123.9 passing YPG. He has only thrown three touchdown passes but he has seven interceptions. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games after a loss at home. The Bears have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a double-digit loss at home. Chicago is averaging only 15.4 PPG and 264.0 total YPG this season — and those numbers drop to 10.8 PPG and 233.0 total YPG in their four games on the road. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The play of the Chicago defense is a concern tonight as well with linebacker Khalil Mack out with a foot injury and safety Eddie Jackson doubtful with a hamstring. The loss of Mack particularly stings since he is vital to the Bears’ run defense. Even with Mack, the Bears rank 18th in DVOA run defense. Chicago allowed 467 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games under Tomlin. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers (476) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (7-1) has won four straight games after their 38-22 win at Houston as a 17-point favorite last week.
Tennessee (6-2) has won four straight games after their 34-31 upset win in overtime at Indianapolis as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles did not cover the 17-point spread despite the victory by two touchdowns last week — but they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. And while the Rams have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games. The Rams have the best offense in the NFL according to the DVOA metric by Football Outsiders — and they are averaging 6.5 Yards-Per-Play. They are scoring 30.6 PPG — and they have scored at least 26 points in seven of their eight games. Now they will be playing a Titans defense that has allowed at least 27 points five times. Los Angeles leads the NFL in sacks — and they added Von Miller this week in a swap with Denver at the trade deadline. Will Tennessee be able to score into the 20s without Derrick Henry who is out with a foot injury? Ryan Tannehill’s Passer Rating drops by 20 points in his Titans’ career in games when he did not have Henry available in the backfield. After pulling off three straight upsets against Buffalo and Kansas City before the Colts last week, the bubble may be about ready to burst for this team. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Titans have not allowed more than 83 rushing yards in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in two straight games. These nice run defense numbers may say more about the lack of a rushing attack from Buffalo and Kansas City than it does about the effectiveness of the Tennessee run defense. That unit ranks 28th in DVOA in run defense.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (312) minus the points versus the New York Jets (311). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (3-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped with their 34-31 upset loss in overtime to Tennessee on Sunday. New York (2-5) comes off a 31-24 upset win against Cincinnati as an 11.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS THE POINTS: Perhaps the best thing for this Indianapolis team is to get back on the field as soon as possible after the sting of losing their second game this season to their AFC South divisional rival in the Titans. Head coach Frank Reich should have his team ready to go in a must-win game for them to keep their playoff hopes alive. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home. They are also 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread loss. The Colts got lulled away from their rushing attack in that game as they ran the ball only 20 times for 83 yards. Expect more touches for Jonathan Taylor tonight — and Indy has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Colts should have a big edge in the turnover battle which should help them cover a double-digit spread. Indianapolis ranks second in the NFL with a +8 net turnover margin — and the Jets are 30th in the league with a -10 net turnover margin. Enter Mike White who will be making his second career start on a short week. He surprised in his first career start on Sunday by completing 37 of 45 passes for 405 yards with three touchdown passes — but he did throw two interceptions. The former Western Kentucky quarterback lived off short passes against the Bengals -- running back Michael Carter had 14 targets with nine receptions and running back Ty Johnson had another five catches from six targets out of the backfield. Jamison Crowder also had eight catches for 84 yards coming mostly from short routes. With White under center again this week since Zach Wilson is still injured, the Colts’ defense will adjust to this short game and dare White to throw the ball vertically down the field — and the Jets will once again be without their best deep threat in Corey Davis. Indianapolis has the fifth-best defense in the NFL according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — and they lead the league in Run Defense DVOA. The Jets are 28th in DVOA Offense with their best work coming from their rushing attack that ranks 19th in DVOA — but running the ball against the Colts will be problematic as they hold their guests to 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry when playing at home. New York scores only 16.3 PPG and averages 235.6 total YPG this season — and those numbers drop to 11.8 PPG and 235.6 total YPG in their four road games. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they are just 9-23-3 ATS in their last 35 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. New York’s defense is an issue after allowing their last three opponents to score 37.3 PPG and generate 439.7 total YPG. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. New York goes back on the road on this short week where they are 0-4 with an average losing margin of -19.7 PPG. They allow their home hosts to score 31.5 PPG. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road — and they are 14-33-4 ATS in their last 51 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: New York has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and the Colts are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games on Thursday Night Football. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Indianapolis Colts (312) minus the points versus the New York Jets (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (277) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (278). THE SITUATION: New York (2-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 25-3 upset win against Carolina as a 3-point underdog last week. Kansas City (3-4) looks to rebound from their 27-3 upset loss at Tennessee last week as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: Many observers expect the Chiefs to take out the frustration of their 24-point loss last week — but Kansas City just needs a win more than they need to make any statements. Be careful laying double-digit points with a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a loss by at least 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least three touchdowns. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. Kansas City will probably still make the playoffs — but they have some fundamental problems they need to address. Their defense cannot stop anyone — they are allowing 29.0 Points-Per-Game. Using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders, the Chiefs have the second-to-worst defense in the league while ranking 31st in both run defense and pass defense. The Titans gained 369 yards against them last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. To make matters worse, Kansas City is turning the ball over too much. Patrick Mahomes has nine interceptions already this season. Mahomes is great — but he is trying to do too much behind a rebuilding offensive line. He might have been lulled into thinking he can consistently avoid trouble after only throwing six interceptions last year. He was very fortunate last season since he had another eight likely interceptions that were dropped by the defensive player. Kansas City has lost the turnover battle in five straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing the turnover battle in at least four straight games. The Chiefs have attempted at least 47 passes in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after attempting at least 40 passes in two straight games. Kansas City needs to run the ball more — we will see if that happens. They only ran the ball 13 times last week for 77 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Chiefs return home where they have lost two of their three games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. New York will be confident entering this game after playing their best game of the season last week. But with just two wins on the season, there is little room for complacency for this group in the second season under head coach Joe Judge. They held the Panthers to just 173 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. The Giants have been a surprisingly reliable team on the road with Daniel Jones at QB. New York has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 road games as an underdog including twelve of the last sixteen of those circumstances. The Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road with the Total set at 45.5. or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home when laying the points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (277) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (276) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (275). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (3-3) has won three of their last four games after their 34-28 win at Carolina in overtime as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Dallas (5-1) has won five in a row after their 35-29 win at New England in overtime as a 3.5-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: I am assuming that Dak Prescott will play — although his calf injury may limit his ability to scramble and keep him from being close to 100%. If the Cowboys opt to rest him another week and play Cooper Rush at quarterback, that only makes this Minnesota investment more attractive. The Vikings are underrated after three losses all decided by seven points or less. Minnesota is outgaining their opponents by +55.9 net Yards-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 home games after a win by six points or less. In generating 571 yards against the Panthers, the Vikings rushed for 198 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last game. Kirk Cousins is enjoying a big season that is going mostly under the radar. He is completing 69.5% of his passes with 13 touchdown passes only two interceptions. Minnesota returns home where they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Vikings are also 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games in October. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after playing a game where at least 50 points were scored. The Cowboys gained 567 yards in that game against the Patriots — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game. Dallas outgained New England by +232 net yards despite needing overtime to pull out that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards including failing to cover the point spread in five of these last seven circumstances. And while the offense is averaging 7.2 Yards-Per-Play in their last three games, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last three games — a situation made even worse if Rush is their quarterback.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played at Minnesota. Even with a healthy Prescott, I was liking the Vikings in this spot all week. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (276) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (274) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (273). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (4-2) has won two games in a row — both on the road — after a 13-10 win at Seattle as a 6-point favorite on Monday Night Football. Tampa Bay (6-1) has won four in a row after their 38-3 victory against Chicago last Sunday as a 12.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay benefited from an overwhelmed rookie at quarterback in the Bears Justin Fields who helped them earn a +4 net turnover margin in that game. But the Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 14 points. Now this team goes on the road where they are being outscored this season by -0.6 net Points-Per-Game. Tom Brady and company lost by 10 points in Los Angeles against the Rams before beating New England in overtime by two points and defeating Philadelphia by just six points 2 1/2 weeks ago on Thursday Night Football. The high-powered Patriots offense is scoring only 23.7 PPG in their three road games this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored. The reigning Super Bowl champions have been piling up style points against weak competition — they have played Miami, the Eagles, and the Bears in the last three weeks after the Brady versus Bill Belichick overtime thriller in Foxboro that began their winning streak. The Bucs are not at full health with Antonio Brown out at wide receiver and the secondary banged up including last year’s starting cornerbacks, Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy-Bunting on IR. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul, cornerback Richard Sherman, and linebacker Lavonte David are among the players listed as questionable. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games after winning their last two games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Head coach Sean Payton has transformed this team into a defense-first group that is risk-averse on offense. The Saints defense is allowing only 16.8 Points-Per-Game — and they rank third in the Football Outsiders DVOA metric for defense. Jameis Winston has been underappreciated at quarterback this season — he has not turned the ball over in his six of his games and he has 10 touchdown passes without an interception in the red zone. The organization made a savvy trade this week by re-acquiring veteran running back Mark Ingram from Houston to spell Alvin Kamara who cannot keep touching the ball 30 times per game. Now New Orleans returns to the Big Easy for just the second time all season given a front-loaded road schedule compounded by them playing their opening game in Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida. The Saints have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 52 games as an underdog including seven of their last eight games. And in their last 9 home games as an underdog, New Orleans has covered the point spread 7 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints' defense did a good job of containing Brady in their three games last year. While the Buccaneers beat New Orleans in the playoffs last year by a 30-20 score as a 2.5-point underdog, they lost both regular-season games while scoring just 26 combined points. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Buccaneers — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against NFC South opponents. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (274) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (270) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (269). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-2) had their three-game winning streak snapped two weeks ago in their 34-6 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog. New England (3-4) has won two of their last three games after their 54-13 win against the New York Jets as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles should respond with a vengeance after getting embarrassed by the Ravens. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by 14 or more points. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after their bye week. The team is getting healthier with linebacker Drue Tranquill and safety Nasir Adderley returning to action and running back Austin Ekeler expected to be active for this game. They return home where they are scoring 30.7 PPG and generating 427.0 total YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored. The Chargers are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October. New England dominated the Jets last week — but all their wins have been against rookie quarterbacks in Zach Jones twice and Davis Mills. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a win by 14 or more points. They are also 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers’ Justin Herbert is no rookie any longer — and he will be motivated to exact revenge from the 45-0 thumping Bill Belichick and the Patriots exacted on him and his team on December 6th last year. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Los Angeles Chargers (270) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (263) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (264). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (3-3) has won two games in a row after their 23-20 win in overtime against Seattle as a 5.5-point favorite back on Monday Night Football on October 17th. Cleveland (4-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 17-14 win against Denver as a 1.5-point favorite back on Thursday Night Football on October 21st.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win at home. The Steelers are undervalued right now because Ben Roethlisberger is underrated at this point in his career. While Big Ben’s fantasy value has declined as he continues to age, he is a savvy veteran under center who can still move the offense when he has to. Pittsburgh upset Buffalo to begin the season. Roethlisberger’s problems have more to do with the Steelers' offensive line — but that unit is improving which also helps rookie running back Najee Harris make an impact on the game. Pittsburgh still has a top-ten defense — they rank ninth in Football Outsiders DVOA metric and they also rank ninth in run defense DVOA. The Steelers are dangerous underdogs under head coach Mike Tomlin — they are 25-9-2 ATS in their last 36 games as the dog while covering the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, Pittsburgh is 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games with the over/under in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Baker Mayfield will be under center again after backup Case Keenum looked just as capable in leading the offense against the Broncos — but he is still not at full strength with that bum shoulder. The Browns stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 home games with the Total in the 42.5-49 point range. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: Roethlisberger has a 24-3-1 straight-up record against the Browns in his career after growing up in the Cleveland suburbs. Cleveland is just 10-25-1 ATS in their last 36 games against AFC North competition. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers (263) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (107) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (108). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (6-1) won their sixth game in a row with their 24-10 victory against Washington as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Arizona (7-0) won their seventh straight game to start the season with their 31-5 win against Houston as a 20.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Green Bay has experienced two big losses themselves this week with wide receivers Davante Adams and Allen Lazard both entering COVID protocol this week. The duo has caught more than 50% of Rodgers’ passes this season. But Rodgers has been in this situation before — and he does what it takes to keep moving the football down the field. In his six games played without his favorite target in Adams, Rodgers has completed over 70% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes and just one interception. Even more interesting, while Rodgers averages 246 passing Yards-Per-Game with Adams playing, he averages 310 passing YPG in these six games without Adams. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is expected back at wide receiver after he has been out with a hamstring injury — he joins Randall Cobb, Equanimeous St. Brown, and tight end Robert Tonyan as reliable targets. This shapes up to be a big game for Aaron Jones not only running the football but catching the ball out of the backfield. Forcing Rodgers to be more creative in finding other targets and doing more with his legs is not necessarily a bad thing. This is a much different challenge for the quarterback who was threatening to sit out the season to force a trade in the summer. The same competitive juices that had him taunting Chicago fans with “I still own you” should motivate him tonight. As it is, the Packers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. They are also 39-19-2 ATS in their last 61 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Green Bay is allowing only 316.0 total YPG in their four games on the road. Aaron Rodgers is second in the NFL over the last two seasons with 15 victories as the starting quarterback on the road. The Packers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games on the road — including four of their last five. Green Bay has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Arizona is the lone undefeated team in the league — but I think this speaks more to the opponents they have drawn rather than a significant improvement in their defense. They faced two rookie backup quarterbacks last week in rookie Davis Mills with the Texans and Trey Lance with San Francisco three weeks ago. They caught a Cleveland offense ravaged with injuries at running back, the offensive line (both starting tackles were out), and at wide receiver two weeks ago. They even got the Los Angeles Rams flat in a letdown situation after they had just upset Tampa Bay the previous week. Throw in a third rookie quarterback in Week Three when they played Trevor Lawrence at Jacksonville — that is what Arizona has faced since a narrow 34-33 win at home against Minnesota in Week Two. But the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a win by 21 or more points at home in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 home games following a victory at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored. The Cardinals suffered a big loss Wednesday night with the announcement that not only would J.J. Watt miss this game with a shoulder injury but he needs shoulder surgery that will keep him out the rest of the season. Watt has lost a step or two — but he is a savvy veteran who was drawing tons of attention so this is a big loss. Arizona held the hapless Texans to just 160 total yards last week — but they are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against NFC opponents — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on Thursday Night Football. In Rodgers, We Trust to keep it close tonight. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (107) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (474) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (473). THE SITUATION: Seattle (2-4) has lost two straight games and four of their last five after their 23-20 loss in overtime at Pittsburgh as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. New Orleans (3-2) has won two of their last three games with their 33-22 victory at Washington as a 2.5-point favorite on October 10th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle started slowly against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football last week as they went into the locker room trailing by a 14-0 deficit. But the Seahawks remained resilient to outscore Pittsburgh in the second half by a 20-6 score to force overtime. Geno Smith was solid under center as the proverbial “game manager.” He completed 23 of 32 passes for 209 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. He did lose the football in overtime paving the way for the Steelers’ winning field goal — but that play had a lot more to do with the greatness of linebacker T.J. Watt than it did Smith making a mistake. Smith now has 32 career starts in the NFL under his belt. He will be supported by a Seattle rushing attack that gets former first-round pick, Rashaad Penny, back from injury tonight. Alex Collins was very effective last week as the lead back for the Seahawks as he ran the ball 20 times for 101 yards with a touchdown. While he has been slowed in practice all week with a groin injury, head coach Pete Carroll says he is “ready to go” tonight. This is a “gotta have it” game for Seattle with four losses in their first six games. The Seahawks are 34-15-4 ATS in their last 53 games after a straight-up loss with seven-point spread covers in their last ten games after getting beat in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a loss on the road. We had Seattle last week. One of my arguments was the absence of Russell Wilson would actually help the defense since there would be less pressure to “Let Russ Cook.” The Seahawks went into that game averaging just 25:16 minutes per game on offense. The bad defensive numbers the team was putting up were made worse by requiring them to be on the field for almost 35 minutes per game. Seattle did lose the time of possession battle to Pittsburgh last week — but they did hold Pittsburgh to just 345 total yards of offense. The 5.8 Yards-Per-Play they held the Steelers to was half a yard less than the 6.3 YPP their opponents were averaging entering that game. The 20 points allowed in regulation and 345 yards allowed was the Seahawks’ best defensive effort since the opening week of the season when they beat Indianapolis on the road by a 28-16 score. Carroll is happiest when he can run the football to control the time of possession and keep his defense off the field. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog. New Orleans returns to action after their bye week having beaten the Football Team despite getting outgained in yardage in that game. The Saints also lost the first down battle by a 26 to 18 margin. New Orleans is 3-2 but they are getting outgained by -58.2 net Yards-Per-Game. The Saints have been outgained in four of their five games this season. They are averaging just 295.2 total Yards-Per-Game with head coach Sean Payton keeping a short leash on quarterback Jameis Winston. New Orleans is running the ball in 54.9% of their plays on offense — and they are averaging only 24 pass attempts per game. Payton is trying to keep Winston from reverting back to his form with Tampa Bay when he was an interception machine. Keeping Winston from making mistakes in the Bomb Cyclone conditions tonight may be impossible. Like last night in Santa Clara, rain is expected all game with winds averaging 18 miles per hour and gusting to 23 miles per hour. Payton will not have his short-yardage specialist Taysom Hill tonight who is out as he recovers from a concussion. Wide receiver Michael Thomas is also still on Injured Reserve leaving the Saints without threats at wide receiver. New Orleans’ elite left tackle, Terron Armstead is also out indefinitely with an elbow injury. Even with the bye week, the Saints continue a challenging stretch of game with this being their second straight and fifth of their first six games away from New Orleans.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on Monday Night Football -- and Seattle owns MNF. Not only are the Seahawks 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games on Monday Night Football, but they have won eleven of their thirteen appearances on MNF in the Carroll regime. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (474) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (472) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (471). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (2-3) comes off their bye week looking to snap a three-game losing streak after a 17-10 loss at Arizona as a 6-point underdog two weeks ago. Indianapolis (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 31-17 win against Houston as an 11.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The 49ers need a victory desperately in the uber-competitive NFC West after losing at home to Seattle before their loss to the Cardinals. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after losing two in a row to division rivals. Additionally, the 49ers have covered the point spread in their last 3 games after a bye week under head coach Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco is the only team with a losing record in the league to be outgaining their opponents in yardage. They have a +38.4 net YPG mark due to their defense that is holding their opponents to just 329.8 total YPG. And while they are winless at home in their first two games, they have outgained Green Bay and the Seahawks by +84.0 net YPG while holding them to just 293.5 total YPG. They get Jimmy Garoppolo back under center for this game. The main reason why the franchise felt the need to trade up in the draft to select Trey Lance is because of Garoppolo’s injury history. When he is healthy, he is good. Garoppolo has a 24-10 record as a starting quarterback since 2017 with a 98 Passer Rating and a completion percentage of 67%. The Colts average 4.7 Rushing Yards-Per-Carry this season — but the Niners have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams who average at least 4.5 YPC. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in three straight games as well as four of their last five contests. But the Colts have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. This is a tough spot for Indianapolis with them playing their fourth game on the road in their last five games. And with a showdown with Tennessee on deck, the urgency of this game is lessened. Sure, Indy wants to win this game — but having already lost to the Titans earlier this year, being ready to play that game is of higher importance. That could impact the playing time for some of their injured players. As it is, safety Julian Blackman is out for the rest of the season with an Achilles’ injury. Cornerback Rock Ya-Sin is also out tonight. The offense is without T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell at wide receiver. Right tackle Braden Smith is also out. Quarterback Carson Wentz has been playing better — but perhaps his four straight games without an interception only indicate he is well overdue. The weather forecast calls for a bomb cyclone on the west coast tonight — meaning high winds and perhaps lots of rain. Wentz does not handle adversity very well.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games against teams winning 40-49% of their games. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (472) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (309) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (310). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-3) has lost three straight games after their 34-24 upset loss at home to Las Vegas last week as a 5-point favorite. Cleveland (3-3) has lost two in a row after their 37-14 upset loss at home to Arizona as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: This is an interesting game since both teams enter with similar profiles: both dealing with a ton of injuries, both coming off upset losses, both on multi-game losing streaks, both committed multiple turnovers last week. And the weather is going to be rough with rain and high winds. After conducting the due diligence regarding who should play tonight from the questionables (after getting burned on Sunday with both Cleveland tackles listed as questionable did not play against Arizona; "questionable" in the NFL generally means the player is taking the field), I am not sure the Browns have much of a team out there tonight. It does look like LT Jedrick Wills will play (but the RT and center are doubts), but their offenses consist of quarterback Case Keenum (who I am fine with — but Denver’s Teddy Bridgewater is better) with backup running backs and backup wide receivers (UPDATE: Jarvis Landry was activated from IR this afternoon although his effectiveness remains a question -- his availability does not impact this play) behind a banged-up line. And the defense is banged up (a unit I think was overrated to start the season). The Denver injury situation is not good either (in particular, the linebackers are decimated). But the deciding factor is the team trends -- the Broncos are reliable in these situations and the Browns are awful. Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset loss to an AFC West rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss. The Broncos suffered a -4 net turnover margin against the Raiders — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after enduring a -2 or worse turnover margin in their last game. Denver goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 38.5-42 point range. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss at home. And while the Browns had a -3 net turnover margin against the Cardinals, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Cleveland has the advantage of staying at home on the short week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home when favored. 

FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on Thursday Night Football. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when playing between Week Five and Week Nine. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (309) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Note to subscribers: due to a clerical mistake on my end, I cannot load my 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month report. The Reasons to Take Over the Total for Buffalo-Tennesse are provided after the Titans Report (and it is a bonus for those purchasing this package). I apologize for the confusion (and my clerical mistake that is not easily rectified) -- Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (276) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (275). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-2) has won three of their last four games after their 37-19 win at Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite last week. Buffalo (4-1) has won four in a row with their 38-20 upset win at Kansas City as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win against an AFC South rival. The Titans did allow 256 passing yards to the Jaguars — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Tennessee has seen at least 51 combined points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after playing two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. Both of those games were on the road — now the Titans return home for just the third time this season. Tennessee has not been a home underdog often in the last few seasons — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Buffalo comes off their triumphant victory against a Chiefs team that beat them in the playoffs last season — but they may be due for an emotional letdown playing their second straight game on the road. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after winning at least four games in a row. The Buffalo defense has been lauded for its two shutouts this season — yet they were both against backup quarterbacks. The Bills are only allowing 12.8 PPG — but they have played backup quarterbacks in Jacoby Brissett (for the majority of their game with the Dolphins), Taylor Heinecke, and Davis Mills. While I expected the Buffalo defense to be improved this season under head coach Sean McDermott with their influx of rookies on the defensive line and the return of Star Lotulelei and Matt Milano who did not play much (or at all) last season, this was still a middling defense that ranked 16th and 14th in the NFL by allowing 23.4 PPG and 352.5 YPG. The Bills have benefited from a bunch of giveaways during their winning streak. Patrick Mahomes threw two interceptions last week with Buffalo enjoying a +4 net turnover margin in that game. The Bills had at least three giveaways in four straight games for a +12 net turnover margin over that span. Not coincidentally, Buffalo lost the turnover battle in their opening game against Pittsburgh in their line loss of the season. They now play a Titans team that has not committed a turnover in two straight games. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning the turnover battle in four straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 appearances on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Tennessee Titans (276) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Hollywood Sports’ 25* NFL MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE MONTH

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (275) and the Tennessee Titans (276). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (4-1) has won four in a row with their 38-20 upset win at Kansas City as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday night. Tennessee (3-2) has won three of their last four games after their 37-19 win at Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bills generated 436 yards of offense against the Chiefs despite only being on offense for 27:35 minutes in that game. Buffalo has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points. The Over is also 14-5-1 in their last 20 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, the Bills have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 5 straight Overs after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. But Buffalo also gave up 392 yards in that game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bills’ defense has been lauded for its two shutouts this season — yet they were both against backup quarterbacks. Buffalo is only allowing 12.8 PPG — but they have played backup quarterbacks in Jacoby Brissett (for the majority of their game with the Dolphins), Taylor Heinecke, and Davis Mills. While I expected the Bills’ defense to be improved this season under head coach Sean McDermott with their influx of rookies on the defensive line and the return of Star Lotulelei and Matt Milano who did not play much (or at all) last season, this was still a middling defense that ranked 16th and 14th in the NFL by allowing 23.4 PPG and 352.5 YPG. Now this team stays on the road where they have scored 37 PPG in their last six games going back to last season. Buffalo has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total. Tennessee has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a win by at least 14 points — and the Over is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games after a point spread win. Led by Derrick Henry, the Titans rushed for 184 yards last week — and they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Tennessee gained 368 yards last week against the Jaguars — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the Titans gave up a whopping 4554 yards to Jacksonville in that game — and they have then played 4 straight Overs after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Tennessee is allowing 26.0 PPG and 377.4 total YPG. They return home where they have played 11 of their last 16 home games Over the Total — and the Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total when an underdog. These are two high scoring teams whose explosive offenses outshine their middling defenses. Expect both teams to score both score in the high-20s (at least). 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (275) and the Tennessee Titans (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (273) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (274). THE SITUATION: Seattle (2-3) has lost three of their last four games with their 26-17 loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams as a 2.5-point underdog back on October 7th. Pittsburgh (2-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 27-19 upset victory as a 2-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. The Seahawks will be without Russell Wilson in this game — but I think this presents an opportunity for Seattle to get back to running the football and burning time off the clock. Wilson is great — but he sometimes gets so enamored with his moon-shot deep passing skills that it hurts his team when these plays don’t work. The Seahawks’ offense is on the field for just 25:16 minutes per game this season. Asking this Seattle defense to be on the field for over 34 minutes per game is wearing them out. The Seahawks have allowed at least 457 yards in four straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in two straight games. “Let Russ Cook” can sometimes be a curse for this team as they move away from what makes this team most successful. The Seattle defense allowed only 16.0 PPG in their last eight games last year after a similar terrible start statistically — and the improvement coincided with less “Russ Cooking” as the offense did not generate more than 236 passing yards in those final eight regular-season games. Most of the analytics folks have simply not accounted for the belief held by most NFL coaches that controlling the time of possession helps their own defense. Don’t be surprised if Geno Smith plays well at quarterback for this team — especially in a more structured offense under offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. He had some good moments last week in leading the Seahawks offense to one touchdown drive and keeping them competitive after the Wilson injury. He completed 10 of 17 passes for 131 yards with a touchdown and an interception — and he added 23 rushing yards. Seattle has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games as an underdog. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an underdog loss. And while they enjoyed their best offensive game of the season by generating 391 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Steelers’ defense has not been as stout this season as they are giving up 361.7 total YPG — way above their 305.8 total YPG defensive mark last season which was third-best in the NFL. The Broncos gained 374 yards against them last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh is averaging only 18.8 PPG and 319.6 total YPG at home this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Expect a close game where having the points will offer valuable insurance. 20* NFL Seattle-Pittsburgh NBC-TV Special with the Seattle Seahawks (273) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (268) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (267). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (3-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped with their 47-42 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Arizona (5-0) remained undefeated this season with their 17-10 victory at home against San Francisco as a 6-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland lost to the Chargers despite outgaining them by +38 net yards. The Browns have won the yardage battle in all five of their games this season — but two blown double-digit leads represent the two blemishes on their record. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Browns have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after playing a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. This is a bad matchup for the Cardinals who allowed their opponents to average 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Cleveland leads the NFL by averaging 188 rushing YPG and 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Granted, the Browns are missing Nick Chubb for this game — but this is an opportunity for Kareem Hunt to be the featured back. Cleveland’s ground game thrives from one of the best offensive lines in the league. They rushed for 230 yards last week against the Chargers — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. And while they outrushed the Chargers by +118 rushing yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +100 yards. Cleveland has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games against non-conference opponents. Arizona may be due for a letdown after their undefeated start to the season. They have covered the point spread in three straight games with their last two games against the Rams and 49ers. But the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning their last two games against NFC West opponents. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And in their last 36 games after winning three games in a row, they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of these games. As if traveling east was enough of a challenge, the Cardinals are dealing with a COVID outbreak that will keep not only head coach Kliff Kingsbury but also their quarterbacks' coach from traveling with the team. My cynical reaction to this news is that Arizona may be better off without Kingsbury — but he is the play-caller for the team. The loss of the QB coach is also big since he is the one who communicates Kyler Murray’s in-game thoughts and preferences to the play-caller. The loss of these coaches on the sidelines creates chaos — the Saints got beat badly by 19 points at Carolina in Week Two after their COVID outbreak left them without some coaches on the sidelines. Their best pass rusher Chandler Jones is also out with COVID. Murray is not 100% either as he is dealing with an arm injury. Murray only ran for one yard last week while dealing with that injury. Arizona is just 1-7-1 straight-up when Murray does not rush for at least 15 yards.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. To compound matters even more for the Cardinals, high winds in the 20 miles-per-hour range are expected in Cleveland this afternoon — making a good rushing attack even more valuable with the wind impacting balls in the air. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Cleveland Browns (268) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (267). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (262) minus the points versus the Los Angles Chargers (261). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (4-1) won their fourth game in a row on Monday with their 31-25 win against Indianapolis in overtime as a 7.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (4-1) has won three games in a row with their 47-42 victory at home against Cleveland as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore should build off their momentum after playing a bad game for three quarters against the Colts. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after winning at least four games in a row. And in their last 5 games after a point spread loss, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 of these games. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Baltimore averages 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry and 168 rushing Yards-Per-Game when playing at home which will present a challenge for this Chargers team that struggles to stop the run. Los Angeles ranks second-to-last in run defense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. They are last in the NFL by allowing 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry — and they have allowed at least 180 rushing yards in three of their five games. The Chargers are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while they generated 493 yards last week, they have failed to cover the appoint spread in 10 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. Special teams are also an issue for this team with four missed extra points already this season. Los Angeles ranks 29th in the special teams in DVOA — and the Ravens are 2nd in the NFL in special teams DVOA.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Baltimore Ravens (262) minus the points versus the Los Angles Chargers (261). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (251) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (252). THE SITUATION: Miami (1-4) has lost four in a row after their 45-17 loss at Tampa Bay as an 11-point underdog last Sunday. Jacksonville (0-5) has lost 20 games in a row going back to last season after their 37-19 loss to Tennessee as a 4-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: In this battle of struggling AFC teams, I side with the better head coach and better team culture in Brian Flores in his third year with Miami — especially in handling the challenge of traveling across the Atlantic Ocean to play in this game. Perhaps regression was due for the Dolphins after their 10-6 campaign last year — but injuries have played a role in their four-game losing streak. Miami should play better this morning. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Flores is a defensive coach — he will address this unite that got shredded by Tom Brady for 558 total yards last week. Miami does get Tua Tagovailoa back for this game after he was knocked out early in Week Two. I guess I am a Tua supporter only because I find the arguments that he is a bust to be vastly premature. Without the benefit of training camp last season and coming off his hip injury that shortened his career at Alabama, he still completed 64.1% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and just five interceptions in a timeshare with Ryan Fitzpatrick. He won six of the nine games he started — and he won his first start this season at New England. But this is an In Flores I Trust situation. The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record. Miami has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games under Flores between Weeks Five and Nine. Urban Meyer needs to send Thank You notes to Jon Gruden for bumping his name off the Coaches in Crisis headlines this week. After Meyer’s controversy with not flying back with his team after their loss at Cincinnati, it was telling that the Jaguars did not rally around their career-college head coach in their 18-point loss to the Titans. There are numerous reports that Meyer has lost the room. This was not the first controversy that Meyer has had since taking the job with the Jaguars. From hiring the strength coach from Iowa with a history of “racially-charged” language to then the Tim Tebow vanity project in August, Meyer has consistently demonstrated that he thinks he is above normal professional behavior in the league. That is the wrong look for college head coaches attempting to make the jump to the league. The long trip to London tends to expose internal disfunction. As it is, this is a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a double-digit loss to a divisional rival. Jacksonville has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 14 or more points. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Trevor Lawrence did complete 23 of 33 passes for 273 yards last week in a losing effort — but the Jaguars are just 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. After the New York Jets loss to Atlanta last Sunday morning with rookie Bryce Wilson under center, teams using a rookie quarterback are 0-5 when playing in London while being outscored by -85 net points in those games. Rookies QBs have not passed for more than more touchdown passes in any of those five games. 20* NFL Miami-Jacksonville London Special with the Miami Dolphins (251) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (110) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (2-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 21-18 upset win at Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Tampa Bay (4-1) has won their last two games after their 45-17 victory against Miami as an 11-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The Eagles pulled off a nice win against a solid Panthers team last week. They held Carolina to just 267 yards in the win. Philadelphia had lost three games in a row where they did not cover the point spread — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after only covering the point spread once in their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after losing two of their last three games. And in their last 65 home games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games, the Eagles have covered the point spread a decisive 42 times. Philly is winless at home this year in difficult games against San Francisco and Kansas City — but they outgained both those teams by a combined +6.0 net Yards-Per-Game. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. Tampa Bay may be due for a letdown after their blowout win against the Dolphins. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after playing a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Tampa Bay has enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning the turnover battle in two straight games. The Buccaneers have a stout run defense — but they are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.9% of their passes for a whopping 314 Yards-Per-Game in the air. The Tampa Bay defense will be without two important starters in linebacker Lavonte David and free safety Antoine Winfield as they are dealing with injuries. Now they go on the road where they are getting outscored by -4.0 PPG. They are scoring just 21.5 PPG in their first two games away from home — and quarterback Tom Brady is dealing with an injured right hand which may slow him down in the passing game. His safety valve in Rob Gronkowski is also still out tonight with a rib injury. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. Tampa Bay is also 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers have been inconsistent this season which is not a big surprise for teams coming off Super Bowl triumphs. These are the types of games where these champions tend to underachieve — especially when on a short week. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played on a Thursday night. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (110) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (480) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (479). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (3-1) has won three games in a row after their 23-7 upset win at Denver as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (1-3) snapped a three-game losing streak on Sunday with their 27-17 upset win at Miami as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore is dealing with injuries — but head coach John Harbaugh has instilled the “next man up” culture with his team. The Ravens outgained the Broncos by +152 net yards by holding Denver to just 254 total yards. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after outgaining their last opponent by +150 or more yards. Quarterback Lamar Jackson continues to improve in the passing game. He leads the NFL by averaging 12.1 air-yards per pass attempt — and his 14.4 yards-per-completion also leads the league. He completed 22 of 37 passes for 316 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions while only running for an additional 28 yards — he beat the tough Broncos defense with his arm. Now after playing their last three games on the road, the Ravens return home for just the second time this season. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 straight home games — and they have coiffed the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored. Additionally, the Ravens have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after the first month of the season under Harbaugh. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while they held the Dolphins to just 35 yards, they have then lost 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. This Colts team is riddled with injuries — and they do not have the quality of depth that the Ravens do. Twelve players are on  Injured Reserve — and starting guard Braden Smith and cornerback Rock Ya-Son and first-round draft pick defensive end Kity Paye are all out for tonight. Indianapolis is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis is being outgained and outscored this season — and Baltimore is outgaining their opponents by +61.2 net Yards-Per-Game. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on Monday Night Football. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (480) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (478) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (477).  THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 42-30 win at Philadelphia as a 7.5-point favorite last week. Buffalo (3-1) has won three games in a row after their 40-0 shutout win against Houston as a 19-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: The Bills look amazing on paper — they lead the NFL in point differential and they have only trailed in 11 total minutes in their first four games. But after a flat opening week performance against a Steelers team that is winless ever since, Buffalo has feasted on three backup quarterbacks in the last three weeks in Jacob Brissett (off the bench for most of that game after the Tua Tagovailoa injury), Taylor Heinicke, and then Davis Mills last week. Sorry, I am not ready to anoint this unit the second coming of the 1986 Bears — and their star linebacker Matt Milano is questionable with a hamstring injury. They are also benefiting from turnovers against these backup quarterbacks — they won the turnover battle in each of those three games while sporting a +3 and +4 net turnover margin in the last two weeks. But the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 22 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. And while Buffalo outrushed the Texans by +151 net yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least 150 yards. Additionally, the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in October. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in October. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win on the road. Kansas City has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing two of their last three games. The Chiefs got their ground game going by rushing for a season-high 199 yards to help them generate 471 total yards. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott may be tempted to play two-high safeties to dare the Chiefs to run the football — but KC can still gouge them for first down after first down gobbling up five yards at a time. Defense is the concern for the Chiefs after allowing at least 29 points in all four of their games. But Kansas City has covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after allowing at least 25 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 25 points in three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo will be motivated to avenge a 38-24 loss at Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game — but they have still failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings against the Chiefs. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Let’s back Patrick Mahomes at home laying no more than a field goal. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (478) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (477). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (470) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (469). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (3-1) lost their first game of the season after their 28-14 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3.5-point underdog for Monday Night Football. Chicago (2-2) evened their record with a 24-14 win against Detroit as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread victory. Chicago gave up 351 yards to the Lions with their banged-up offensive line and limited weapons at wide receiver — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bears travel west with some difficult injuries. Defensive end Akiem Hicks is out with a groin injury which will hurt their defense. They are also without their top running back David Montgomery who is on IR with a knee injury. And while Justin Fields is in much better hands with offensive coordinator taking over the play-calling duties for head coach (and “My Way or the Highway” schemes that he permanently borrowed from Andy Reid), he is still a rookie quarterback making a start in a hostile environment (and it is loud here in Allegiant Stadium). Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Bears have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Chicago is 0-2 on the road where they are getting outscored by -20 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by —217.5 net YPG. The Bears are giving up 30 PPG on the road while scoring just 10.0 PPG from 184.5 total YPG. They face an angry Raiders team that is 2-0 in their new building with fans allowed to attend while scoring 32.0 PPG and generation 494.0 total YPG. Las Vegas was flat on Monday in their loss against the Chargers after falling behind by at least two touchdowns for the third time in four games. Their ability to rally from deficits has led to the Raiders getting too complacent — and the lightning weather delay that night did them no favors to offset their growing habit of starting slow. Spotting Justin Herbert three touchdowns was too much to overcome. The slow start contributed to Las Vegas only running the ball 18 times for 48 rushing yards — and they were outgained by 120 rushing yards by the Chargers. Gruden’s teams have covered the point spread in 15 of their 22 games in his coaching history after a game where they were outrushed by at least 100 yards. Gruden believes in the run game — and he has a healthy Josh Jacobs who should be in good shape after playing on Monday.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played in Weeks 5-9 — and the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in October. I suspect that the Raiders finally get off to a fast start in this one. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Las Vegas Raiders (470) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (301) minus the point(s) versus the Seattle Seahawks (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-1) lost their first game of the season on Sunday with their 37-20 upset loss to Arizona as a 3.5-point favorite. Seattle (2-2) comes off a 28-21 upset at San Francisco as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINT(S): Los Angeles should bounce-back after losing their first game of the season five days ago. The Rams have rebounded to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. Additionally, Los Angeles is 12-3-1 ATS after a double-digit loss at home. The Rams typically respond well to setbacks under head coach Sean McVay. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles did gain 401 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the Rams defense disappointed by surrendering 465 yards and 37 points. Los Angeles is 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Seattle has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Seattle only gained 234 yards last week against the 49ers but benefited from a +2 net turnover margin. Russell Wilson passed for just 149 yards in the game. The Seahawks may be without running back Chris Carson who is questionable with a neck injury which would leave them to just Alex Collins with Rashaad Penny on IR. But the bigger issue for Seattle has been on defense with them allowing 444.5 total Yards-Per-Game. They are being outgained by -94.5 net YPG. The 49ers gained 457 yards against them last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Seahawks have allowed at least 313 passing yards in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Seahawks including their 30-20 win in Seattle in the playoffs last January. The Rams are also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games against NFC West opponents — and the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against divisional rivals. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (301) minus the point(s) versus the Seattle Seahawks (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (279) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (280). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (3-0) won their third straight game with their 31-28 win in overtime against Miami as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (2-1) comes off a 30-24 upset win at Kansas City as a 6.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Raiders rallied from a two-touchdown deficit for the second time this season as they spotted the Dolphins a 14-0 lead before scoring 25 unanswered points. Miami got on the board with an 85-yard interception return for a touchdown that served as a 14-point swing in the first quarter as Las Vegas appeared poised to score the opening touchdown. The Raiders outgained the Dolphins by +167 net yards. Las Vegas is outscoring their opponents by +6.0 PPG and they are dominating their opponents in yardage by a +115.3 net Yards-Per-Game. The Raiders were top-ten in scoring and total offense last year — but it is the improved play of their defense that has made the winning difference this season. It starts with the pass rush under first-year defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. Despite only blitzing 9% of the time, the Las Vegas defense is generating pressure in 44% of opposing snaps. Now the Raiders go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. Las Vegas has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when priced in the +/- 3-point range. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Chargers have covered the point spread in two of three games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Los Angeles has two upset wins so far this season — but they are only outscoring their opponents by +2.3 PPG and outgoing them by +23.0 net YPG. The defense has been hit with injuries with starters Kenneth Murray and cornerback Chris Harris questionable. Depth defensive tackle Justin Jones is out with a calf injury. The Chargers are also giving away too many yards in penalties to their opponents. They are averaging 8.7 penalties per game which is producing 81 penalty Yards-Per-Game which is the most in the league. Los Angeles returns home where they are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Chargers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two meetings last season with the road team winning both times. The underdog has covered the point spread in 18 of the last 24 meetings between these two teams. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Las Vegas Raiders (279) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (278) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (277). THE SITUATION: New England (1-2) looks to rebound from their 28-13 upset loss at home to New Orleans as a 3-point favorite last week. Tampa Bay (2-1) lost their first game since winning the Super Bowl last season in a 34-24 upset loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1-point road favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: If the choice is between Tom Brady and Mac Jones, then the answer is easy. If the choice is between Brady and Bill Belichick, the answer gets tougher. But if the choice is between Brady or Belichick at home getting points, then I will take Belichick coaching as a home dog. New England has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 home games getting the points — including nine of these last eleven situations. The Patriots are also 42-18-2 ATS in their last 62 games in October under Belichick. He will have his team ready to play after their disappointing effort at home against the Saints last week. New England has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after an upset loss by 14 or more points at home. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. Don’t underestimate the quality of this Patriots defense as they are allowing only 17.0 PPG and 282.3 total Yards-Per-Game. It will be fascinating to observe what Belichick has in store in defending against his former quarterback. Jones has been impressive as a rookie quarterback — he completed 30 of 51 passes for 270 yards while rushing for another 28 yards in a losing effort to the Saints. His three interceptions hurt — but the Patriots have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Buccaneers are dealing with some injuries on defense. Linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul is out with a shoulder injury and the Bucs are dealing with other injuries at cornerback including Sean Murphy-Bunting who is IR. Tampa Bay is allowing 29.3 PPG and 402.2 YPG — and they have allowed at least 25 points in all three of their games this season. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 25 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 25 points in three straight games. The Rams averaged 6.56 Yards-Per-Play against this defense last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.5 YPP. Tampa Bay is giving up 338 passing YPG with all three of their opponents passing for at least 293 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games after allowing 275 or more passing YPG in a three-game stretch.

FINAL TAKE: Brady has failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight appearances on Prime-Time television. That probably speaks to a “Brady tax” that bettors must swallow if wanting to back the G.O.A.T. with their bet. Either way, the value is with the Patriots tonight. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots (278) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (256) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (255). THE SITUATION: New York (0-3) remained winless on the season after their embarrassing 26-0 shutout loss at Denver last Sunday as a 10.5-point underdog. Tennessee (2-1) comes off a 25-16 win against Indianapolis as a 4.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: NFL teams coming off shutouts tend to respond with a strong effort the next week. This was the case for our 25* play on Miami last week who got shutout 35-0 the week before against Buffalo. For what it is worth, NFL teams have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 27 games after getting shut out in their previous game. The Jets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least 21 points on the road in their previous game. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as an underdog. They have played a tough schedule against Carolina, New England, and the Broncos who all feature tough defenses. That is not the case this afternoon against the Titans who are allowing 28.0 Points-Per-Game. Tennessee will be without their starting wide receivers with A.J. Brown and Julio Jones out with injuries. This leaves them one-dimensional on offense. This is a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road when favored — and they are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets are desperate for a win — and they are playing hard for head coach Robert Saleh. The former San Francisco defensive coordinator has his team playing solid defense — they are holding their opponents to 328.3 total YPG. With the Titans missing their two wide receivers, the Titans just need to escape with a win. Take the points! 10* NFL Big Dog Surprise with the New York Jets (256) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (255). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (101) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (102). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (0-3) lost their third straight game to start the season with a 31-19 loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point underdog on Sunday. Cincinnati (2-1) comes off a 24-10 upset win at Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: Successful long-term gambling in football requires the willingness to back bad teams — the ones that the betting public does not want to touch. Two bad teams are playing tonight — so taking the one getting a touchdown in points offers value. This is just the fourth time in head coach Zac Taylor’s three-year year tenure as the head coach of the Bengals — and this is the first time that Cincinnati is laying more than a field goal. The Bengals lost the two games they were favored in Taylor’s rookie season. Their lone win and point spread cover as a favorite under Taylor was their 33-25 win against the Jaguars last October as a 1-point favorite. With Urban Meyer now the head coach and Trevor Lawrence under center, this is a different Jacksonville team. Frankly, the Bengals are primed for a letdown after their triumph against their heated AFC North rival in the Steelers. Did Cincinnati win that game — or did Pittsburgh lose it? The Bengals gained only 268 yards. They ran only 42 plays while the Steelers took 77 snaps under center. Cincy converted only three of nine of their third-down opportunities — a disturbing continuation from last season when they were 30th in the NFL by converting 36.2% of their third-down opportunities. But the Bengals pulled off their second upset victory of the season after beating Minnesota in Week One as an underdog. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. I like quarterback Joe Burrow — and would like him even more if played behind an even average offensive line. The Bengals allowed 48 sacks last season — and they have surrendered 10 sacks so far this season despite the Steelers failing to sack Burrow even once. Cincinnati got the memo to run the ball more after Burrow’s season-ending injury last year just to keep Burrow out of harm’s way. The Bengals are running the ball 52% of the time. But that also means that they are scoring only 22.7 Points-Per-Game while averaging just 291.0 total YPG. I am not sold on Taylor as a head coach, yet another beneficiary of once being in the same room as Sean McVay. With offensive coordinator Brian Callahan and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, he has assembled a support staff that will not threaten his authority. The Bengals are dealing with injuries in their secondary as well. Two starters are likely out with cornerback Chidobe Awuzie doubtful with a groin and free safety Jessie Bates out with a neck injury. Backup safety Ricardo Allen, a free agent signing from Atlanta in the offseason, is on IR. Cincinnati gave up 297 passing yards last week (after surrendering 336 passing yards to the Vikings in Week One) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Jacksonville held a 19-10 lead against an undefeated Arizona team midway through the third quarter. A 29-yard interception returned for a touchdown near the end of the third quarter gave the Cardinals the lead for good. Turnovers are killing the Jaguars — their nine giveaways are most in the NFL. Lawrence has thrown seven interceptions already this season after not having a problem with picks in his college career at Clemson. Jacksonville had five net close losses within one scoring possession last season. They lost at home to Denver the previous week by a 23-13 score — but the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing two in a row by double-digits at home. Jacksonville did rush for 159 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Running the football will protect Lawrence from trying to do too much — and Chicago was able to rush for 123 yards against the Bengals in their only loss so far this season. Cincinnati was 29th in the NFL last year by allowing 148.0 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Meyer is not used to losing — and this is one of the most getable games on the Jacksonville schedule. With veteran offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and former Baltimore defensive backs coach Joe Cullen as the defensive coordinator, Meyer has a veteran staff with experience operating on a short week. This should be a close game against a Bengals team feeling very good about themselves. And Burrow is without one of his important weapons in wide receiver Tee Higgins who is out with a shoulder injury. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Jacksonville Jaguars (101) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (498) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (497). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-1) looks to rebound from their 17-11 loss at home to San Francisco as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Dallas (1-1) looks to build off their 20-17 upset win at Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas is highly valued by the betting public right now after following up their nationally-televised 2-point loss at Tampa Bay to open the season with an upset win on the road against Justin Herbert’s Chargers. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 47 of their last 69 home games when laying the points. Even if you like the potential of this Cowboys’ team, they have already been hit hard by injuries. Starting defensive linemen DeMarcus Lawrence and Neville Gallimore are both on IR. So is cornerback Kelvin Joseph, their second-round draft pick from Kentucky. Three more depth defensive linemen are out with injuries. Starting strong safety Donovan Wilson is doubtful with a groin injury. A COVID outbreak will keep linebacker Keanu Allen and defensive end Bradley Anae out tonight. On offense, right tackle La’el Collins is suspended for missing drug tests and backup tackle Ty Nsekhe is out with an illness. Wide receiver Michael Gallup is on IR and fellow starting wide receiver Amari Cooper is dealing with a ribs injury (but it looks like he will play). This is just a bunch of attrition for an organization that has not met point spread expectations in situations like this. Dallas did gain 419 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. The Cowboys allowed 408 yards to the Chargers — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. The Dallas defense gave up 431 yards to the Buccaneers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 375 yards in two straight games. Philadelphia outgained the 49ers last week by a 328-306 margin despite only having the ball for 25:06 minutes of the game. They averaged 6.2 Yards-Per-Play while holding the Niners to just 4.0 YPP. They crushed Atlanta on the road in their opening game by a 32-6 score. This appears to be a well-coached team. Rookie head coach Nick Sirianni may not be ready for prime-time when it comes to televised press conferences, but his game plans have been sound — and the players seem to have completely bought in. Coordinators Shane Steichen and Jonathan Graham have been effective. Graham’s defense is allowing only 11.5 Points-Per-Game and 283.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Steichen’s offense is generating 381.0 total YPG. They have schemed well for quarterback Jalen Hurts who has been effective with his passing and his rushing. The Eagles hit rock bottom last season but the impact of injuries should not be underestimated. Philadelphia was last in the NFL in adjusted games lost to injury on offense with the wide receiver and offensive line unites decimated. While right guard Brandon Brooks went on IR this week, the line is in much better shape now as is the wide receiver room which was bolstered with the drafting of DeVonta Smith in the first round. Sirianni inherited a pretty good roster. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games played on Monday Night Football. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 appearances on Monday Night Football. And in the Cowboys’ last 6 games against NFC East rivals, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (498) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (497). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (496) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (495). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (2-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 17-11 victory at Philadelphia last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Green Bay (1-1) comes off a 35-17 win at home against Detroit as an 11.5-point favorite for Monday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The 49ers are dealing with injuries which is situation normal for head coach Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco had 161.6 adjusted games lost to injury last season — and that is before looking at lost time because of COVID — which was the most games lost since the Chicago Bears in 2017. Shanahan and general manager John Lynch have done a great job in establishing depth and developing a next-man up mentality. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games when favored under Shanahan’s leadership. While San Francisco led the NFL with 32 players in Injured Reserve last season, it was the loss of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo that was the biggest loss. Much was made of the Niners selected quarterbacks Trey Lance as the third pick in the NFL, that pick said more about Garoppolo’s propensity to get injured than it did about his talent. Garoppolo led this team to a Super Bowl — and he is healthy right now. Lance offers the team a threat with his legs under center. After not playing much last week, don’t be surprised if Shanahan rope-a-doped the Packers’ coaching staff and will have some special Lance packages for this showdown. The 49ers have been hit hard with injuries at running back — but this is the position on the field most resilient to injuries. Ohio State rookie Trey Sermon oozes with talent after being picked in the third round — and Shanahan has claimed he has looked great in practice this week. The running game is predicated on the offensive line — and this unit is heathy and clicking for the Niners. San Francisco has allowed only one sack so far this season. The 49ers will be playing with revenge from their 34-17 loss at home to Green Bay last year — but that game was played on November 5th when the team was already decimated with injuries. San Francisco not only swept the Packers in their two meetings at Levi’s Stadium in the 2019-20 season, they overwhelmed them by a 74-28 scoring edge. The 49ers controlled the line of scrimmage in both games — and they rushed for 285 yards on 42 carries in the NFC Championship Game that year. Green Bay is soft — they struggle against physical teams. Their best chance of fighting back has been their good offensive line — but injuries and free agent defections leaves them without their three best lineman from the 2019-20 team that got embarrassed. ,b>All-Pro center Corey Linsley was allowed to sign with the Chargers. All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari is still recovering from the torn ACL he suffered on December 31st. And now their emerging stud at left guard (playing left tackle for Bakhtiari), Elgton Jenkins, is out with an ankle which leaves them relying on Yosh Nijman on the left side. I think the Aaron Rodgers drama is a distraction that is eroding the chemistry and morale of this team — but do not underestimate the simple loss of talent on the offensive line for this team. Here comes Nick Bosa and three other former first round picks on the offensive line. In Rodgers’ last four games against the Niners since October 2018, he has been sacked 12 times while losing four fumbles. The Packers were losing at halftime against Detroit on Monday before the Lions’ failed fourth down within field goal range changed the momentum of that game. Green Bay’s defense has surrendered 17 points in the first half in each of their first two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after giving up 17 or more first half points in two straight contests. The Packers’ defense has registered only one sack this season. Cornerback Kenny King has become a liability after getting burned at the end of the first half against Tampa Bay in last year’s NFC Championship Game. Green Bay is also missing their second-best defensive player (to cornerback Jaire Alexander) in linebacker Za’Darius Smith who is on IR with a back injury. Former Michigan first-round draft pick Rashan Gary has disappointed in his development as a pass rusher. Now Green Bay goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The weight of losing two straight NFC Conference Championship Games seems to be too much for the Packers. General manager Brian Gutenkunst poured gasoline on this situation by wasting a precious first round draft pick (and the traded draft picks) for quarterback Jordan Love. Head coach Matt LaFleur demonstrated a lack of confidence in Rodgers by electing to kick a field goal down 8 points late in the NFC Championship Game against Tampa Bay despite being inside the 10-yard line. And now after the team claimed to “not ready to play” in San Francisco in the 2020 NFC Championship Game, this group is going to rally with all this going on — on a short week? I don’t think so. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the  San Francisco 49ers (496) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (495). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (492) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (491). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-0) won their second-straight game to start the season with their 27-24 win at Indianapolis as a 4-point favorite last week. Tampa Bay (2-0) comes off a 48-25 win against Atlanta as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): After Los Angeles demonstrated their potential with Matthew Stafford under center in the first week of the season, they played poorly last week but did enough to beat the Colts. Indianapolis recovered a fumble in the end zone to score a touchdown to keep the game close. The Rams have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles did generate 371 yards against the Colts defense — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They return home to SoFi Stadium where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games. The Los Angeles Rams defense led the NFL by holding their opponents to just 18.5 PPG and 281.9 total YPG — and they led the league by holding their opponent’s to just 4.6 Yards-Per-Play. They are allowing 19.0 PPG so far this season. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by two or more touchdowns. I do worry about the Super Bowl hangover effect for this team. This is a team that already had the most game-to-game variance using the DVOA metric by Football Outsiders. They were up by a 27-24 score against the winless Falcons early in the fourth quarter. They needed Tom Brady heroics with less than two minutes left in the game to rally to defeat the Cowboys at home. Now the Buccaneers play their first game of the season on the road — and with the looming media circus drama upcoming the following week when the team travels to New England in Brady’s first game back in Foxboro against the Patriots. Tampa Bay lost only 30.6 adjusted games to injury last season — the lowest number in the league. But they will be without pass rush special Jason Pierre-Paul to injury and wide receiver Antonio Brown to the COVID list for this showdown.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games against NFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record under McVay. This is a statement game for McVay’s team — but it is just another game to the Super Bowl champions. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-LA Rams’ Fox-TV Special with the Los Angeles Rams (492) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (491). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (487) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (488). THE SITUATION: Miami (1-1) looks to pick themselves off the mat after a 35-0 loss at home to Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Las Vegas (2-0) pulled off their second-straight upset victory in their 26-17 upset win at Pittsburgh as a 5.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a situation too good to pass up despite some injury and offensive line concerns. I am trusting the process — and the wisdom of the point spread — in this one. The Dolphins were completely flat last week in their divisional loss to the Bills. They may have been suffering the hangover of returning from New England where they just beat the Patriots. The early injury to Tua Tagovailoa did not help matters. But Miami ran into a buzzsaw that was an angry Bills team coming off an upset loss to Pittsburgh. There is nothing like an NFL team getting shut out that will generate attentive minds in practice the next week. In Brian Flores, I Trust in righting the Dolphins’ ship this week. Miami has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after a loss by 14 or more points. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 11 games after surrendering at least 30 points, Miami has covered the point spread 10 times. The Dolphins have a good defense that was tied for fifth in the league by allowing 21.1 PPG last season. Miami led the NFL in third-down defense, three-and-outs, and yards allowed per drive, and takeaways last season. They were also fourth in the league in Red Zone points allowed. They held the Bills to just 314 yards last week despite the 35 points. After gaining only 214 total yards, the Dolphins need to reconfigure their offense. Flores has overseen the reshuffling of their offensive line. Getting wide receiver Will Fuller into the mix after the former Houston Texan missed the opening two games help — he is a speedster who had eight touchdowns in eleven games last year. Fuller alongside rookie Jaylen Waddle could be a game-changer for this offense. Jacoby Brissett completed only 24 of 40 passes for 169 yards in relief last week — but the veteran is one of the better backups in the league with 32 career starts. He has tossed 31 career touchdown passes to just 14 interceptions — and he adds a threat with his legs. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 5 straight road games with the Total set at 42.5 to 45 — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games as an underdog. Miami has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Las Vegas may be due for an emotional letdown after pulling off two straight upset victories. We had the Raiders in their home opener with fans finally in Allegiant Stadium in their Monday night upset win against Baltimore. And while most of the world faded Las Vegas last week at Pittsburgh, we successfully avoided that trap (the Steelers' side of that situation was unappealing). Now the Raiders return home triumphant heroes — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after two straight upset wins. Las Vegas has not been a reliable favorite under head coach Jon Gruden. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. They will likely be without starting running back Josh Jacobs and right guard Richie Incognito. Missing Jacobs will put more pressure on Derek Carr.  the Raiders only rushed for 52 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. And while Carr has passed for at least 373 yards in his first two games, Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 300 yards in two straight games. The Raiders’ defense has played better (the August acquisitions of linebackers K.J. Wright and Denzel Perryman was massive for this team to overcome general manager Mike Mayock’s whiffs in the draft) — but I am not sold that this is an elite unit quite yet. Baltimore gained 406 yards against them before Ben Roethlisberger passed for 292 yards last week.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the Raiders. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Miami Dolphins (487) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (302) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (301). THE SITUATION: Houston (1-1) looks to rebound from a 31-21 loss at Cleveland as a 13.5-point underdog on Sunday. Carolina (2-0) comes into this game after a 26-7 upset win against New Orleans as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS PLUS THE POINTS: The Panthers are the toast of the NLF right now with their 2-0 start after their decisive victory against the Saints. But that win against New Orleans was against a team that was without eight coaches due to a COVID outbreak — wreaking havoc on their in-game coaching, sideline management, and who knows what else. The Saints were also dealing with some tough injuries on defense with Marshon Lattimore, Marcus Davenport, and Kwon Alexander all out. The Panthers held New Orleans to just 128 yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Sam Darnold has played well so far in his liberation from the Jets and Adam Gase — but this will be his first game in a hostile environment after Carolina’s first two games were at home. The schedule for the Panthers has been fortunate with them hosting the hapless Jets and then the undermanned Saints last week. While the defensive numbers have improved, this remains a team that was bottom-five in opponents rushing Yards-Per-Carry for two straight seasons. Carolina was 27th in Red Zone Offense and 30th in goal-to-go situations last season despite having wunderkind Joe Brady as their offensive coordinator last year. The Panthers’ defense was second-to-last in the league by allowing their opponents to convert on 49.2% of their third downs. I am just not ready to buy that Carolina should be laying more than a touchdown on the road in a short week. As it is, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games playing on a Thursday Night. Houston beat Jacksonville at home before covering the point spread but losing to the Browns on the road last week. The Texans will be without starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor who will be out at least four weeks after being put on IR for a hamstring injury. That means rookie Davis Mills will be the starting quarterback. The third-round pick from Stanford has upside — but he is raw after not playing much in his collegiate career after COVID shortened his junior season as a Cardinal to just five games. Houston is not going to ask Mills to win this game with his arm — they will likely deploy their rushing attack behind Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay, and David Johnson being a solid offensive line that features Laremy Tunsil at left tackle and Tytus Howard at right tackle. Mills completed 8 of 18 passes for 102 yards with a touchdown and an interception in relief of Taylor last week. In the preseason, Mills completed 31 of 65 yards for 333 yards with two touchdowns (and four interceptions). There have been comparisons with him and Andrew Luck besides the obvious same alma mater. Mills is smart and has arm talent — offensive coordinator Tim Kelly will likely not ask him to do more than what he is capable of. They prepared for this possibility/eventuality of Mills playing in the preseason — so the short week probably helps the Texans than it does the Panthers in preparing for the new quarterback.

FINAL TAKE: Houston is a mess of a franchise with the Deshaun Watson issues and the creepy Jack Easterby having too much influence over team decisions despite having no football background. This is an Island of Misfit Toys — but they have brought in a bunch of castoff veterans who have bought in 65-year-old rookie head coach David Culley. This team is going to play hard — and they have covered the point spread 4 straight games as an underdog. Carolina is just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 road games as a favorite. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Houston Texans (302) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (297) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (298). THE SITUATION: Detroit (0-1) enters this game coming off a 41-33 loss to San Francisco as a 9.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 38-3 upset loss against New Orleans in Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: The Packers were complacent traveling to Jacksonville to play a Saints team learning to live life without Drew Brees. And when teams get close to winning a championship, they can get lulled into thinking the first game of the new season is the continuation of the previous season — so they can just flip the switch. Green Bay has lost in the NFC Championship Game two years in a row. After a tumultuous offseason where Aaron Rodgers threatened retirement, the culture inside the room is not very good for this team. But this team was still in first place after Week One with all four of the NFC North teams losing. Now returning home to host Detroit, I do not see the team suddenly embracing a sense of urgency. I will not be surprised if they remain somewhat complacent tonight. As it is, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Despite winning 13 games in the regular season last year, they only outgained their opponents by +55.0 net Yards-Per-Game — and that is not the formula to cover a point spread this big. A strength of this team has been their offensive line — but they are now without two All-Pros from last year with left tackle Davis Bakhtiari on IR and center Corey Linsley gone in free agency. But the defense of the Packers is perhaps the bigger issue. After nose tackle Kenny Clark and cornerback Jaire Alexander, the talent level of this group assembled by general manager Brian Gutekunst is questionable — and they are dealing with injuries. Linebacker Za’Darius Smith is on Injured Reserve and depth safety Vernon Scott is out with a hamstring. Additionally, starting safety Darnell Savage is questionable with a shoulder leaving the Pack thin at the position. LaFleur hired Joe Barry, the former defensive coordinator of the winless Lions team under Rod Marinelli as his defensive coordinator. At least Marinelli had the excuse of Barry being his son-in-law. Barry has never coached a defense that finished better than 27th in total defense in his time with Detroit and later with Washington. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. It was encouraging for the Lions not ever giving up as they scored 33 points and gained 430 yards against the stout San Francisco defense. Quarterback Jared Goff was effective even without being scripted to death by boy-genius Sean McVay. Goff completed 38 of 57 passes for 338 yards and three touchdowns operating the Anthony Lynn-coached offense. Wide receiver Tyrell Williams is in the concussion protocol and out for this game — but his presence on the field was never going to transform this Lions’ offense. Detroit is going to run the football and pass the ball to tight end T.J. Hockenson before looking for open wide receivers — and a majority of their points last week was after the former Raiders’ wide receiver left the game. The Lions have an underrated offensive line — and rookie Penei Sewell thrived at left tackle replacing the injured Taylor Decker. After struggling in the preseason in making the move to right tackle, Sewell eased back into the left tackle slot and handled Nick Bosa. D’Andre Swift is expected to play tonight at running back joining a dynamic duo with Jamaal Williams.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in September — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the NFC. Detroit is undervalued right now — while this is not a playoff team, this organization is so much better off simply by getting rid of Patricia and Quinn. The players hated them both, and that impacted how hard they would play. This group is playing hard for Campbell, who they think is one of them. Addition by subtraction. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Detroit Lions (297) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (298). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (296) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (295). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (0-1) looks to rebound from their 33-29 upset loss in overtime at Las Vegas as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Kansas City (1-0) comes off a 33-29 win against Cleveland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: The Chiefs overcame a slow start at home against the Browns by rallying from their 12-point halftime deficit to win that game. But Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. But of concern is the Chiefs’ defense that allowed 457 yards to the Browns last week. The deeper analytics exposed the KC defense as worse than their raw numbers suggest. They ranked 22nd last season in the Football Outsiders DVOA numbers — and they were 31st in run defense DVOA. There is a fundamental flaw with the Chiefs’ defense with their reliance on linebacker William Gay. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo needs Gay on the field to help shore up his run defense — yet he is a liability in the pass coverage. KC was second-to-last in the NFL last season in DVOA in pass coverage against running backs. These are weaknesses that the Baltimore run-oriented offensive attack can exploit. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now Kansas City goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Baltimore averaged 6.3 Yards-Per-Play last week en route to ganging 406 yards against the Raiders. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after generating at least 6.0 Yards-Per-Play in their last game. Quarterback Lamar Jackson accounted for 321 total yards combined from the air and ground last week. But the Baltimore defense gave up 491 yards in that game with Las Vegas playing catchup all night before winning the game in OT. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Baltimore is dealing with many injuries — but head coach John Harbaugh is fully committed to the “next man up” mentality.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog — and the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Baltimore Ravens (296) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (295). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (102) minus the points versus the New York Giants (101). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-1) looks to rebound from a 20-16 upset loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. New York (0-1) comes off a 27-13 loss at home to Denver as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM MINUS THE POINTS: Washington let us down on Sunday in blowing their game with the Chargers — but they were in a position to win that game late even after the early injury to quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. After turning Los Angeles over inside their own ten-yard line, Washington fumbled on their 3-yard line to give the ball right back and allow Justin Herbert to score the winning touchdown in the fourth quarter. The boxscore says that the Football Team only generated 259 total yards — but they only had the ball for 23:57 minutes of that game. They averaged 5.40 Yards-Per-Play which is not great, but not nearly as bad as the 259 total yards appears at first glance. Head coach Ron Rivera is high on Taylor Heinicke who will be his quarterback. He completed 11 of 15 passes for 122 yards with a touchdown pass against the Chargers on Sunday. He also kept the Football Team competitive in his start against Tampa Bay in the playoffs last year. The key for this game is to control the time of possession to wear out the suspect Giants' defense while keeping their defense fresh. Washington passed for only 133 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not passing for at least 150 yards in their last game. And while they allowed 424 yards (but only 5.57 Yards-Per-Play), they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. New York was dominated at home last week against a Broncos team that outgained them by +106 net yards. The Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss at home. New York continued a seemingly endemic characteristic of this franchise to start the new slowly to the new season — they have now failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games in September. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 appearances on Thursday Night Football. The Giants’ offense was 31st in the NFL last season by scoring only 17.5 PPG and generating just 299.6 total YPG. Running back Saquon Barkley rushed only ten times for 26 yards against Denver as he nurses a sore knee. While he will play, the quick turnaround on a short week does not help. Tight end Evan Engram has been declared out with the calf injury that kept him off the field on Sunday. The Giants’ offensive line was a mess last year — and after losing guard Kevin Zeitler in the offseason in a salary-cap move, they brought in Zach Fulton who then became one of three players to retire early in head coach Joe Judge’s training camp. Now they face the ferocious Washington defensive line with four former first-round draft picks led by Chase Young. The Football Team was second in the NFL last year by holding their opponents to just 304.6 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Despite Justin Herbert’s big numbers, the Football Team has still not allowed more than 20 points in seven straight games. Washington started last season 1-5 — but they closed the year by winning six of ten before losing by a 31-23 score to the Buccaneers. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Washington Football Team (102) minus the points versus the New York Giants (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (481). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (0-0) comes off an 8-8 campaign last season in the third year under head coach Jon Gruden. Baltimore (0-0) lost to Buffalo by a 17-3 score in the AFC Divisional Playoffs after an 11-5 record in the regular season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: It will be a madhouse at Allegiant Stadium tonight in the first home game in Las Vegas where fans will be in attendance. As it is, the Raiders are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on Monday Night Football. Gruden thinks his team is close to breaking through as a playoff team. Las Vegas blew three leads with less than 1:43 minutes left in the game last season. Finishing has been the biggest problem for this team under Gruden. The Raiders lost five of their final seven games of the season to blow their playoff chances. But Gruden got his team off to a fast start by winning six of their first nine games. Las Vegas has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new season. They host a wounded Ravens team that has been ravaged by injuries. Twelve players are on Injured Reserve including starting cornerback Marcus Peters and starting linebacker L.J. Fort. Baltimore will also be without starting defensive end Derek Wolfe who is dealing with a back injury. The offense has also taken several hits at running back and wide receiver. The Ravens have lost J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill at running back. Undrafted free agent, Ty’Son Williams, and Latavius Murray will be the primary running backs tonight. Murray lost the backup job in New Orleans to Tony Jones in training camp. Baltimore will also be without wide receivers, Miles Boykin and Rashod Bateman. Boykin is on IR with a hamstring injury and Bateman, their first-round draft pick from Minnesota, is on IR with a groin injury. Despite winning eleven games in the regular season, the Ravens only outgained their opponents by +33.3 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games in expected higher-scoring games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with Las Vegas Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (479) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (480). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-0) comes off an 8-8 season where they lost to New Orleans by a 21-0 score in the NFC Wildcard playoffs. Los Angeles (0-0) was 10-6 last season and lost in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs in a 32-18 loss to Green Bay.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Matthew Stafford is getting almost all the attention for the Rams this season after they acquired the veteran quarterback in the offseason in a blockbuster trade with Detroit. I like Stafford at quarterback — but I am in the “pump the brakes” crowd for those who think he will the league’s MVP while leading the Rams to the Super Bowl. The days of head coach Sean McVay scheming against eight defenders in the box to dare Jared Goff to throw are long gone. And the Rams took a major hit with the season-ending injury to Cam Akers. Darrell Henderson gets the initial starting job at running back — but I am not as high on the former Memphis all-purpose back because all indications are that the Rams do not have confidence in him. They have rarely allowed him to be the lead back in his first two seasons in the league despite the declining physical skills of Todd Gurley and an unsettled backfield last season. They signed Sony Michel last month for a reason — but he was the odd man out in New England who is seeing his skills decline as well. Stafford plays against an underrated defense in this Bears unit that is quite familiar with his tendencies. Chicago was just 11th in the NFL last year by holding their opponents to 344.9 total YPG — but they faced the most difficult schedule in terms of offensive efficiency last year. They have elite players in their back seven in free safety Eddie Jackson and linebacker Roquan Smith and Khalil Mack. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. Chicago has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in September. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Andy Dalton may not be the exciting choice at quarterback by head coach Matt Nagy — but the savvy veteran should be able to keep Chicago in the game without making costly mistakes that rookie Justin Fields might.

FINAL TAKE: These are two playoff teams from last season. While the ceiling for the Bears appears lower, the Bears' defense should keep them within one scoring possession. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Chicago Bears (479) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (462) minus the point(s) (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Chargers (461). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-0) comes off a 7-9 campaign which was still good enough to win the NFC East before giving Tampa Bay a competitive contest in a 31-23 loss in an NFC Wildcard playoff matchup last January. Los Angeles (0-0) won their last four games of the season to conclude a 7-9 season last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The Chargers opened as a small favorite in this game before the line moved to see Washington a small favorite as of this writing. I do not like this spot for Los Angeles. It is always an extra challenge for west coast teams to travel east to play in a 1 PM ET game with the body clocks thinking it is 10 AM. The Chargers sacked head coach Anthony Lynn for not winning enough close games in his four-year tenure — despite his team winning three games by just three points in their closing four-game winning streak. 38-year-old Brandon Staley is the new head coach after serving as the defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams last season. First-year head coaches have a spotty record in their opening games in the league — they are 1-12-1 straight-up, an ominous number given the point spread in this contest. I am more optimistic long-term about this team than I am for this contest. The defense is going to take a step back given a system change and a loss of talent. Melvin Ingram and Denzel Perryman must be replaced in the front seven and the secondary replaces Casey Hayward and Rayshawn Jenkins. The Chargers are banking on injured players like Joey Bosa and Derwin James to immediately return to form. But Staley’s defensive system is much different than previous defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s schemes. Staley’s success with the Rams came from an aggressive man defense with two high safeties — but we will see if having Aaron Donald controlling the line of scrimmage was essential for that system to thrive. The run defense ranked 26th in the league in Football Outsiders DVOA metric — and it might get worse this season with the system change. Staley embraced the new-school philosophy of Sean McVay to not play starters in the preseason games — so the best reps his team got to implement his packages were in joint practices. The offensive line breaks in four new starters which is a terrifying thought against this Washington defensive line. Second-year quarterback Justin Herbert was great in his rookie campaign — but he is not likely to make a big leap this season since his first year was so good. The analytics suggest his next growth spurt in development will occur in his third season. The data also indicates that he is likely to see regression in how he handles pass-rush pressure and in third-down efficiency. Top running back Austin Ekeler is questionable to play with a hamstring. Staley inherits a team that is just 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 games in September. The Chargers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Washington may still be underappreciated for their losing record last year despite overcoming a 1-5 start. They gave the Buccaneers one of the most difficult games in their Super Bowl run. They should be even better in the second year of the Ron Rivera regime. The Football Team’s defense is ferocious with four former first-round draft picks anchoring the front four. With Chase Young, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen, and Montez Sweat, coordinator Jack Del Rio can generate a pass rush without blitzing — allowing him to have more players in pass coverage. Washington rushed only four defenders 68% of the time last season — a simple but devastating formula for success if it still pressures the opposing QB. The Football Team allowed only 1.69 points per drive last season — the third-lowest mark in the league. The unit added linebacker Jamin Davis in the first round of the NFL draft and cornerback William Jackson from Cincinnati who possesses elite cover skills. The defense did not allow more than 20 points in their final seven regular-season games. On offense, I like the addition of Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. The veteran has a reputation for being loose with the football — but he has usually played for bad teams. This is the best defense the former Harvard quarterback has played with. He will operate a sophisticated offensive under coordinator Scott Turner that emphasized getting rid of the football quickly into the hands of speedy playmakers. There is depth on the offensive line and at wide receiver. Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on their home field.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Football Team has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in expected close games listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Washington Football Team (462) minus the point(s) (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Chargers (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (451). THE SITUATION: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) won the Super Bowl on their home field at Raymond James Stadium — and their first game defending that championship will be in the same building tonight. Dallas (0-0) comes off a 6-10 season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has all 22 starters back from last year’s Super Bowl team (although Whitehead is out). After their bye week in Week Twelve, Tom Brady sat down with head coach Bruce Arians to tinker with the offensive game-planning to incorporate more of the concepts that Brady thrived in when playing in New England: more play-action pass, more pre-snap motion, and a bigger commitment to running the football earlier in the game. In their last eight games including their four playoff contests, the Buccaneers scored 33.9 PPG while reaching the 30-point threshold seven times. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games with the total set at 49.5 or higher. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opening games to a new season.

FINAL TALE: Dallas will likely be without right guard Zach Martin who is on their COVID list — and that does not help their cause against the outstanding Buccaneers’ pass rush. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against NFC opponents — and Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC foes. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (101). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (14-5) upset Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game by a 31-26 score as a 2.5-point underdog. Kansas City (16-2) defeated Buffalo by a 38-24 score as a 2.5-point favorite in the AFC Championship Game to advance to their opportunity to defend their Super Bowl championship from last season. This game will be played in Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay making the Buccaneers the first team to playing in their home stadium in a Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas City played their best game of the 2020-21 season against the Bills in their two-touchdown victory. That is the Chiefs’ team I expected to show-up in the second half in our 25* play on KC against Cleveland. And we had Patrick Mahomes and company against Buffalo last week — so I do not recommend betting against the reigning champs lightly. I was tickled when hearing the pundits talk about the Chiefs inability to cover point spreads as of late — they went into the AFC Championship Game having only covered the spread once in their previous nine games. As if just winning 15 of 17 games was not impressive enough. Yet it took 45 minutes of great football from the Chiefs (after falling behind 9-0) for the conventional wisdom to dramatically shift to just how invincible they are. The truth is somewhere in the middle. But it remains hard to repeat as a Super Bowl champion — and Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not covering the point spread more than once in their last three games. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win at home — which is usually when the public starts bandwagoning Mahomes again. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsider consider the Buccaneers the best team in the NFL (and before home field advantage). I do take their numbers with a few grains of salt — a bettor will go bankrupt fast relying exclusively on them. But, their analytics provide evidence that the Chiefs are perhaps overvalued in this game. And that is before the injury situation — which I consider severe. I have worried all postseason about KC being without right tackle Mitchell Schwartz who is on Injured Reserve with a back injury. Head coach Andy Reid said that he did not expect Schwartz to be available for the Super Bowl. The Achilles’ injury to Eric Fisher late in the Bills’ game leaves the Chiefs without their starting tackles — and the Buccaneers’ pass rush is ferocious now that have Vita Vea and Shaq Barrett back from injury to join Ndamukong Suh clogging the middle and Jason Pierre-Paul rushing from the outside. I do begin to worry about Mahomes’ left toe a bit when thinking about him missing both tackles — he was better on Sunday but not 100%. Tampa Bay was always going to be a work-in-progress in a year without a full training camp to get Tom Brady in-synch with head coach Bruce Arians. Adding Leonard Fournette and then Antonio Brown midseason to a team already loaded with talent at the skill positions made the challenge more difficult — but this team is peaking at the right time with two weeks to further grow. Since their loss to the Chiefs by a 27-24 score on November 29th, Tampa Bay is 7-0 with an average winning margin of +13.7 PPG while averaging 34.3 PPG and 424.0 Yards-Per-Game. Home field is also significant — not for the cheering crowd, which doesn’t hurt. The Buccaneers getting to play in a Super Bowl in their comfortable and familiar facilities while sleeping in their own beds is a big deal.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as a favorite. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they will be a bit better on February 7th than they were when they last played over two months ago. 25* NFL Super Bowl *A-List* Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (101). Best of luck for us — Frank (and look for my Super Bowl Prop Bets Report the morning of the Super Bowl).

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (313). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (15-2) advanced to their opportunity to defend their Super Bowl championship last Sunday with their 22-17 win against Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite. Buffalo (15-3) reached the AFC Championship Game with their 17-3 win against Baltimore last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes cleared the concussion protocol on Friday but there is still the issue of the turf toe in his left foot. He will not be 100% with the pain and discomfort that he will experience — yet I still expect Kansas City to cover point spread expectations. I do think the reigning Super Bowl champions were able to flip a switch once the playoffs started last week. They raced out to a 19-3 lead at halftime (which could have been an even bigger lead if not for missed kicks). This is a good sign for them this week — the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after owning a halftime lead by at least two touchdowns. KC has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. The Chiefs gained 438 yards overall even with Mahomes leaving the game in the third quarter — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Many observers fading Kansas City in this game cite that they have only covered the point spread once in their last nine games. But the Chiefs have coved the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after not covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. So much criticism for a team that won fifteen of their seventeen games this season. And they will be playing in Arrowhead Stadium where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games when laying no more than 7 points. Buffalo has won eight straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after winning at least four in a row. And after playing their last three games at home, the Bills go back on the road for the first time since December 28th — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after playing at least two straight games at home. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Kansas City to play the Chiefs.

FINAL TAKE: Josh Allen and the Bills have been a great story in the second half of this season — but they face a significant disadvantage in playoff experience. This is all new territory for Allen, head coach Sean McDermott, offensive coordinator Brian Daboll (as an OC), and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. The Chiefs’ Andy Reid has been the head coach in two Super Bowls and eight championship games between his time with Philadelphia and Kansas City. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has won two Super Bowls running the defense for the Chiefs last year and previously with the New York Giants. And then there is the battle between Allen and Mahomes. Kansas City should win this game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (312) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (14-3) has won seven games in a row after their 32-18 victory over the Los Angeles Rams last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. Tampa Bay (13-5) has won six games in a row with their 30-20 upset win at New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Buccaneers are playing the best football of their season right now which is just how head coach Bruce Arians and quarterback Tom Brady planned. However, this is a very challenging situation for them to travel up to Lambeau Field under their recent circumstances. They overcame a huge obstacle in upsetting the Saints on the road after they had lost the previous two times against this season by a combined 72-26 score. They also benefited from a +4 net turnover margin on Sunday. They are not likely to be so fortunate against a Packers team that has a +6 net turnover margin this season and that has only turned the ball over 12 times all year. Green Bay has committed only two turnovers in their last seven games — and Aaron Rodgers has just five interceptions all season. Part of head coach Matt LaFleur’s system is to ask Rodgers to do less in the passing game. It is working. And Tampa Bay is now playing their third straight game away from home which adds to the stress and complications of their situation. The Bucs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last two games away from home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 35 games after pulling off an upset win. Additionally, Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games this season after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Buccaneers are also surviving high-scoring games with at least 50 combined points scored in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least three straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. We had Tampa Bay last week — but did so understanding that the Bucs had a 1-5 record against teams that made the playoffs (during the regular season). Every other team playing in the divisional round had registered at least four victories against teams that made the playoffs. Tampa Bay’s six-game winning streak came against Atlanta (twice), Detroit, Minnesota, and then Washington and New Orleans in the playoffs. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games as an underdog getting up to 7 points. Green Bay will be very comfortable in this situation being led by Rodgers. They dominated the Rams by a 484 to 244 margin in yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Packers have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games at home. And in their last 10 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 7 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers will retain a significant home-field edge — not only in not traveling this week and playing in front of a loud crowd (as were the reports last week) even if not at full capacity at Lambeau Field last week. Yet the biggest edge for Green Bay in this game is that they will be very comfortable in playing in the cold weather. The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in January — and Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in January. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (312) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (307) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (308). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (12-5) advanced from the NFC Wild Card playoffs last Saturday night with their 31-23 victory at Washington as a 10-point favorite. New Orleans (13-4) has won three straight games after their 21-9 victory against Chicago last Sunday as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay is playing their best football of the season with five straight victories. They generated 507 yards against a good Washington defense with one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. The Buccaneers have then covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 43 of their last 69 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. This Buccaneer’s offense hit rock bottom on November 8th in their most recent encounter with the Saints in a 38-3 loss at home as a 3-point underdog. Tampa Bay was simply a mess on offense in that game with Tom Brady making ill-advised deep passes on short third-down situations. The Buccaneers ran the ball a mere five times — making a mockery of the analytics grifters who write articles every couple of years calling for offenses to pass on every down (as if there is not an adequate sample size from the Big 12 conference to assess the effectiveness of such a strategy). That game was also the debut of Antonio Brown with the team with the Bucs seeming to think he was just a “plug-and-play” solution. If there was a silver lining from that humiliation, it was that it forced Brady to get on the same-page Bruce “no risk it, no biscuit” Arians on the offensive philosophy of this team. Slowly, this offense is looking more like the ones he operated in New England — albeit with more deep throws still (but he has the talent to do it with his receiving corps). I expect this game plan to rely plenty on Brady’s assessment regarding how to attack this Saints’ defense he has played twice already — and that has just the 29th ranked Red Zone defense. The Tampa Bay offense enters this game clicking on all cylinders by scoring 40.7 PPG and averaging 527.6 total YPG. Brown has found his niche as one of the weapons at Brady’s disposal. Brady has been more accurate with his deep balls — he is averaging 9.7 Yards-Per-Attempt since their bye in Week 13 which is over 2.0 YPA above what he was averaging before the extra time to self-audit the offense. Granted, Brady’s recent success has been against teams with losing records in Detroit, Atlanta, and Washington (with Minnesota and the Falcons again since the bye week). How much of Brady’s success is legitimate and how much of it was a product of playing the Lions, et al, defenses? The metrics at Football Outsiders say the improvement is legit with the Buccaneers’ weighted DVOA on offense now ranked second in the NFL. Maybe the Tampa Bay offensive problems is as simple as two grizzled veterans in Brady and Arians needing (and using) the regular season to figure out how to mesh philosophies without the benefit of a normal offseason? The Bucs’ defense gets a shot in the arm with linebacker Devin White returning to action after testing positive for COVID. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set at 49.5. They are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread covers as a double-digit underdog. Brees has not looked 100% since his return from his rib injury — the Football Outsiders’ folks have assessed him a negative DVOA game grade in two of his four starts since his return. The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. New Orleans has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games when favored by 3 points or less. Additionally, the Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 52 home games after winning three of their last four games. Furthermore, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: While it may not be impossible to defeat a team three times in one season, the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when playing with revenge from two straight losses to their opponent where they allowed at least 28 points. Tampa Bay has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when averaging a loss at home by at least three touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss at home by at least four touchdowns. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (307) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-2) rested starters with the top seed in the AFC playoffs locked last week in a 38-21 loss to the Los Angels Chargers as a 7-point underdog. Cleveland (12-5) has won their last two games as well as seven of their last nine contests after their 48-37 upset win at Pittsburgh as a 5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: I really liked the situation for the Browns in that playoff game playing with no pressure given all the COVID adversity with the Steelers seeming to dismiss that their AFC North “younger brother” offered any threat with Ben Roethlisberger owning a 13-0 record at home against Cleveland in his career. Well, I “so right” about the Browns that it ruined our bigger play on the Under. With hindsight being 20/20, upgrading the Under play above the Cleveland side play was the sound fundamental play given the evidence at hand. That opening fumble in the end zone that the Brown recovered and then Roethlisberger throwing four interceptions to help Cleveland go into halftime with a 35-10 lead changed the entire dynamic of that game (while forcing the Steelers to abandon the run for their 2-minute offense). In winning that playoff game under those circumstances — without their head coach Kevin Stefanski — against their most-hated division rival was not only the Browns winning their Super Bowl but may very well be the biggest victory in the Super Bowl era. I like Baker Mayfield and this team when they can play with a chip on their shoulder about being disrespected. I hate Baker Mayfield and this team when they start feeling themselves after experiencing positive results. It will be an emotional two weeks by kickoff — and that is difficult to sustain for even the most battle-tested veteran group. The team hopes Stefanski returns to the building on Thursday. I expect Cleveland to be flat in this game despite playing with the proverbial “house money”. Let’s look at the team trends regarding how this team responds to situations like this. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a win on the road by at least 10 points against an AFC North rival. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. And while Cleveland needed to defeat Pittsburgh in Week 17 to make the playoffs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last two against divisional opponents. And remember how unimpressive the Browns were in eking out that 24-22 win against Mason Rudolph and the Steelers’ second string? This is a team with Bluto for Animal House’s 0.0 when it comes to their net PPG differential — and they are outgained in yardage on the season. On the road, Cleveland was outscored and outgained. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games on the road — and this is an uber-difficult fourth game in their last five away from home. Winning the turnover battle in the last two weeks certainly helps — but the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying a +1 or better net turnover edge in their last two games. Here comes rested Kansas City under head coach Andy Reid who has covered the point spread in 19 of his 29 games when getting the benefit of a bye week. Worried about the Chiefs only covering the point spread once in their last eight games? KC has covered the point spread in 31 of their last 46 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Worried about the Browns running the ball against a run defense that experts at Football Outsiders (who do not incorporate Time of Possession into their metrics) rank as the 31st in the NFL in DVOA? Well, this was an issue last year as well in their Super Bowl championship run. Cleveland won’t be running the ball when down 10 points. The bigger question is how will the Browns’ pass defense that allows 262.5 passing YPG which is 25th in the league (and DVOA! ranks this unit 25th against the pass, as well) stop Patrick Mahomes? Not only has their secondary been banged up all year, but the Browns also lost their second-best pass rusher in Olivier Vernon to a season-ending injury. The Cleveland defense is not good at this point of the season. Big Ben passed for 501 yards against them on Sunday — and Rudolph passed for 309 yards while leading an offense that gained 394 yards. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 450 YPG. Cleveland is also 9-26-2 ATS in their last 37 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games at home. And all this assumes the best case scenario with Cleveland getting everyone back who were in quarantine last week because of COVID. To quote Larry David, this situation is “pretty, pretty, pretty good” (with the caveat that there are never anything “sure things” — but this is as good as it gets. Please don’t bet the house). 25* National Football League Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (304) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (303). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (14-3) defeated Indianapolis at home last Saturday in their Wild Card playoff game by a 27-24 score as a 7-point favorite. Baltimore (12-5) has won six games in a row with their 20-13 win at Tennessee as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: I hate this situation for the Ravens as they will be playing their third straight games on the road in this one. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning their last two games on the road. The Ravens have also failed to cover the point spread in in 35 of their last 55 games after being on the road in their last two contests — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in three of those last four situations. And while they have covered the point spread for bettors in seven straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games as the favorite. It will be cold with flurries in this game — and quarterback Lamar Jackson has said he has never played in snow in his career. Some quarterbacks love the cold and snow — Josh Allen has performed well in these conditions. This remains to be seen for Jackson — and he may lose mobility playing in these conditions if he is not wearing the correct cleats for his game (and this is not a given that he and the trainers will easily figure it out in this initial trial). Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, the Bills have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 52 games after a close win by a field goal or less — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after a win at home by 3 points or less. Buffalo hosts this game where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored. The Bills have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has become a juggernaut with the maturation of Josh Allen this season. The Bills have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against AFC foes while also covering the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Home field edge probably makes the difference in this one — not the fans (although Buffalo is allowing limited attendance for this game) but the cold weather and avoiding continued travel like the Ravens are enduring simply puts the Bills is a better position to execute this week. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (304) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (13-3) returns to action off a bye week after defeating Chicago on the road by a 35-16 score on January 3rd as a 4.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (11-6) has won two in a row after defeating Seattle on the road as a 3-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Rams may be due for a letdown after pulling off that upset victory against their NFC South rival — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after pulling off an upset win on the road against a divisional foe. Additionally, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last two games — and while they covered the point spread in those two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. With John Wolford dealing with the neck injury he suffered against the Seahawks, Jared Goff will be the starting quarterback in this game. Under normal circumstances, I worry about the California product playing in cold weather — he does not have a great history playing in the cold in those rare occasions in his career. Yet asking Goff to control a hardened ball from the cold with screws in his hand may be too much to ask. Highs are expected to be in the 30s for this game. Goff completed just 9 of 19 passes last week for 155 yards. The Rams’ offense relied on their ground game as they rushed for 164 yards — but Los Angeles has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. This is an offense that is scoring only 19.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 333.3 total YPG in those games. This is old hat for Green Bay — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win against a divisional rival. They return home to Lambeau Field where they are 7-1 this season with an average winning margin of +12.1 net PPG. They are holding their guests to just 19.5 PPG along with 308.9 total YPG. They are also scoring 31.6 PPG while averaging 406.9 YPG in their eight home games. The Packers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Green Bay has scored at least 24 points in nine straight games with them reaching 30 points in seven of those contests. Furthermore, the Packers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the playoffs — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoffs games at home in the Green Bay cold weather. Aaron Rodgers’ team has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The favorite has covered the point spread in 9 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams — and the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in the last 6 of these games. It is tough to see Goff at less than 100% keeping up with Rodgers at Lambeau Field. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (151) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (152). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (11-5) has won two of their last three games after defeating the Steelers at home last Sunday by a 24-22 score as a 10.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (12-4) has lost four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: The COVID situation that has hit this Cleveland organization is far from ideal. The Browns have lost eight players to COVID quarantine including Pro Bowl guard Joel Bitonio and cornerback Denzel Ward. They will also be without head coach Kevin Stefanski who has tested positive. Special teams coach Mike Priefer will be the acting head coach for this game with offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt calling the plays. I think that the coaching situation will be fine in-game. The fact that Stefanski prepared and coached against the Steelers for their must-win contest last week really helps to soften the blow — this Cleveland team will be well prepared for this game. Will all the absences make Pittsburgh just a bit more complacent after almost pulling the upset last week despite benching some starters including Ben Roethlisberger? Back to that point in a moment. I love these circumstances for the Browns as they play this game without any pressure coming from expectations. This team in the Baker Mayfield era tends to be at their worst after success when they start believing their hype. Now the only hype is how outclassed they will be — so Myles Garrett and company can play with a chip on their shoulder. As it is, Cleveland has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory where they failed to cover the point spread. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home where they did not cover the point spread. Furthermore, the Browns have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. This team still has the two-headed monster of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the backfield who helped them rush for 192 yards against this defense last week with a 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry average. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last game. The Browns generated 358 yards last week — and Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Steelers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss. This is a team that stumbled down the stretch with four losses in their last five games. Can they just flip the switch? Yes, Big Ben Roethlisberger should be in better health this week after getting last week off to rest with Pittsburgh already locked as the three seed in the AFC playoffs. Outside a second half against the Colts where Roethlisberger ignored his offensive coordinator to lead the offense to 17 points, the Steelers’ offense has looked stagnant in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh is struggling to run the football — they are averaging only 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry. This has contributed to the Steelers’ relying on quick passing routes — but with Roethlisberger’s struggles to execute the vertical passing game because of his health, a decline in his skills, or the lack of balance in the Pittsburgh offense — and that has made their offensive attack too predictable. The Steelers failed to score more than 19 points in five straight games before that second half against Indianapolis produced their 28 points in the final score. Pittsburgh has a COVID issue of their own with cornerback Joe Haden out for this game. The Steelers’ outstanding defense continues to get depleted with linebackers Devin Bush and Marcus Dupree already out the year.

FINAL TAKE: Roethlisberger is a perfect 13-0 at home in his career against the Browns — but I think this history of success may only serve to fuel the hints of complacency the players may have for this game. The Steelers have a recent history of underachievement in the playoff as well. They are 2-5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in the postseason — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games when favored. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (151) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (150) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (149). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (12-4) has won two games in a row with their 33-7 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 6-point favorite. Chicago (8-8) saw their three-game winning streak end last week with their 35-16 loss at Green Bay as a 4.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans should build off their momentum off a divisional game where I thought they might be vulnerable against an underdog playing the role of the spoiler. Instead, the Saints outclassed their NFC South rival who, like the Bears, were motivated by same-season revenge. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. New Orleans is scoring 38.0 PPG in their last three games while averaging 405.0 Yards-Per-Game over that span. They return home where they are scoring 31.6 PPG. The Saints are also fourth in the league by allowing only 310.9 total YPG. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Chicago backed into the playoffs despite the loss to the Packers. They have been outgained by -13.5 net YPG this season. The Bears are not likely to respond with an inspired effort after their loss to Green Bay as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a double-digit loss at home. Mitchell Trubisky completed 33 of 42 passes for 252 yards in the losing effort — but he did throw an interception without a touchdown pass. Improved play from the offensive line has helped Trubisky to put up better numbers in this second stint as the Bears’ starting quarterback this season. But that game against the Packers was the first time this team played a playoff team since November 29th when they lost at home to Green Bay by a 41-26 score. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. In theory, the Bears’ defense is supposed to keep them in games — and their frontline numbers looked decent last week as they only gave up 316 yards to the Packers. But Chicago allowed Green Bay to average 7.34 Yards-Per-Play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 7.0 YPP. The Bears stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 8 games in the playoffs, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and New Orleans has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the total set in that 42.5 to 49 range. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (150) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (147) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (148). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (11-5) has won five games in a row with their 38-3 win at Cincinnati last Sunday as a 13.5-point favorite. Tennessee (11-5) has won three of their last four games after their 41-38 win at Houston as a 7-point favorite as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: The Titans have been living dangerously in outlasting their opponents in high-scoring games. They generated 492 yards against the Texans while surrendering 457 yards along the way. But Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games including five of their last seven after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. But the Titans have given up 40 points along with 448 yards in their previous game against the Packers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight games and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last two contests. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a game where at least 70 points were scored. This team does not fare well relative to point spread expectations with the number high — they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games with the number at 49.5 or higher and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home with the Total at 49.5 or higher. Let’s fade the inferior defense in this game that lacks a pass rush and allows opponents to score 28.3 PPG along with 414.6 total YPG when playing at home — and they have allowed 445.0 YPG in their last three contests. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Over their last five games, they are averaging 37.2 PPG while converting 61.3% of their third-down opportunities. They stay on the road where they are scoring 29.3 PPG. This team is tough to beat when they get their ground game going — and they can rotate three running backs for fresh legs. Baltimore has rushed for at least 150 yards in five straight games after rolling up an incredible 404 yards last week against the Bengals. The Ravens have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in three straight games. Additionally, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games in the playoffs. Furthermore, the Ravens are 32-13-6 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record under head coach John Harbaugh — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: This is the most important game for this Baltimore franchise all year after getting upset against the Titans in the playoffs last year by a 28-12 score as a 10-point favorite. They blew their opportunity for revenge in November when they were upset at home against Tennessee by a 30-24 score in overtime as a 6-point favorite. The third installment in this trilogy moves to Nashville — and the road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. 10* NFL Baltimore-Tennessee ABC-TV Special with the Baltimore Ravens (147) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (146) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (145). THE SITUATION: Washington (7-9) has won five of their last seven games after their 20-14 win at Philadelphia last Sunday night as a 6.5-point favorite. Tampa Bay (11-5) has won four games in a row after the crushed Atlanta last week by a 44-27 score as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM PLUS THE POINTS: I am not a zombie blindly following these numbers — but Tom Brady has been underachieving in night games. Not only have the Buccaneers lost three of their four prime-time games but they have not covered the spread in all 4 games. Furthermore, Brady has not covered the point spread in 7 straight prime-time games going back to his New England days last season. Those numbers are not encouraging — and I do give even more stock into the fact that Tampa Bay lost five of their six games against teams that made the playoffs. Brady and head coach Bruce Arians just want to win — they don’t care about covering a point spread. The Bucs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. They may due for an emotional letdown as well as they are 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in their last two games as well — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. Washington is a much better team with Alex Smith at quarterback — they have won five of the six games he has started this season. His numbers are not great — but I think he can move the team down the field if pressed to be more than a game manager not making mistakes. Smith should find success against a vulnerable Tampa Bay pass defense that allows 247 passing YPG which is 21st in the league. The Football Team has an outstanding defense that it is second in the NFL by allowing only 304.6 YPG. They have a great pass rush that fits the profile that has given Brady problems in the past in that they can rotate fresh bodies while generating pressure from a four-man front without relying on a blitz that takes away someone in pass coverage. Washington is sixth in the NFL with 47 sacks. In their last three games, the Football Team has only allowed 18.0 PPG along with just 266.0 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: I love this situation for Washington who can play in their familiar building without any pressure. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games as a favorite. 25* NFL ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Washington Football Team (146) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (144) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (145). THE SITUATION: THE SITUATION: Seattle (12-4) has won four games in a row with their 26-23 win at San Francisco as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (10-6) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 18-7 win against Arizona as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow win by 3 points or less against an NFC West foe — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Seahawks are also 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 games after a point spread loss. Russell Wilson seems to be in a slump with the team scoring only 22.0 PPG in their last three games. But he did not suddenly forget how to play football — and the Seahawks were cruising into the playoffs in the second half of the season while intentionally working on improving their running game (which will help their defense). Yet Seattle remains a team that is scoring 29.6 PPG at home — and I have full faith in Wilson to continue to score points if the Rams are scoring in a competitive game. The Seahawks return home where they were 7-1 this season even without fans with an average winning margin of +9.1 net PPG. Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games when favored by up to 7 points. In Wilson and head coach Pete Carroll, I trust in situations like this. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 7 games in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs, the Seahawks have covered the point spread 6  times. Whoever Los Angeles starts at quarterback, they will be at a significant disadvantage in comparison to Wilson. Jared Goff plays better at home — and he will not be close to 100% with screws in his throwing hand even if he plays. John Wolfed will be playing in his first playoff game if he takes the field. The former Wake Forest QB only completed 22 of his 38 passes last week against the Cardinals defense. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Los Angeles is scoring only 15.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 323.3 YPG in that stretch. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 55 road games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in Seattle. And while they will be looking to avenge their 20-9 loss in Seattle two weeks ago on December 27th, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 62 opportunities to avenge a loss. 10* NFL Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (144) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (141) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (142). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (11-5) has won four of their last five games after their 28-14 win against Jacksonville last Sunday as a 15.5-point favorite. Buffalo (13-3) has won six games in a row with their 56-26 upset win against Miami as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills have been a freight-train in the second half of the season with all six of their victories being by double-digits. Quarterback Josh Allen has taken his game to the next level — fueled by a rigorous offseason program motivated by his embarrassing performance in the playoffs last year. But I expect things to become more difficult for Buffalo — especially against this Indianapolis team that can deploy the strategy that has given them the biggest problems this season. The Bills are small upfront on defense after losing some important players from last season that were then magnified when defensive tackle Star Lotulelei opted-out this season. Buffalo is allowing opposing rushers to average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry which is 26th in the league. In their three losses this season, the Bills were torched on the ground. Tennessee ran the ball 34 times for 139 yards while also using the commitment to their ground game to set up play-action passes in their 42-16 thrashing of Buffalo. Kansas City ran the ball 46 times for 245 yards in their 26-17 victory over the Bills. And Arizona ran the ball 35 times for 257 yards in a 32-30 upset victory that ended with that Hail Mary touchdown pass to DeAndre Hopkins. Indy can deploy a similar strategy with rookie running back Jonathan Taylor peaking just in time for the playoffs. The former Wisconsin Badger ran the ball 30 times for 253 yards with two touchdowns in the Colts’ win against the Jaguars. Over his last six games, Taylor has rushed for 741 yards with a 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry average along with seven touchdowns. As it is, Buffalo looks primed for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after winning four games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning five in a row. And while the Bills were underdogs against the Dolphins because they had little at stake last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win at home by at least two touchdowns. Buffalo has also failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games after a double-digit win over an AFC East foe. Additionally, while the Bills are 7-1 at home, they are being outgained by -18.3 net YPG in those games. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win over an AFC South rival — and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after a double-digit win over a divisional rival. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. Furthermore, Indy has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Colts have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo is averaging 396.4 YPG — but Indy has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams who average at least 350 YPG. The Bills are banged up at wide receiver Stefan Diggs probable but dealing with an oblique and Cole Beasley questionable with a knee. Allen needs both at peak effectiveness. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Indianapolis Colts (141) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (101) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (102). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-9) has lost two straight games with their 20-13 loss to Carolina as a 1-point underdog. Philadelphia (4-10-1) has lost two straight games as well as six of their last seven games after their 37-17 upset loss at Dallas as a 3-point underdog. Washington must win this game to win the NFC East and make the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM MINUS THE POINTS: My initial thoughts on this game earlier this week was that the home dog tonight would be intriguing against this Washington team that must win this game to make the playoffs. But I hate this situation for the Eagles. Philadelphia declared nine players out yesterday — and this list includes running back Miles Sanders, wide receiver DeSean Jackson, and tight end Dallas Goedert no offense. The Eagles are simply getting very thin when it comes to injuries their skill position and offensive line units. The losses on defense are just as significant with defensive linemen Fletcher Cox and Derek Barnett out along with linebacker Duke Riley. There goes the potent Philly pass rush. What will the morale be for this team at this point? Sure, they want to play the role of the spoiler. But defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz declaring he plans on taking next year off (and leave the team) sends a strange message. So too does the rumors that head coach Doug Pederson will be retained for next season — OK, but does that take him off the hook for this game? The nine players declared out combined with cornerback Jalen Mills being on the COVID list and the 14 other players this season they have lost — this is beginning to look like the junior varsity. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has played quite well in his first three starts at quarterback — he led the Philly offense to 477 total yards last week. But expect head coach Ron Rivera and the Washington defensive staff to have a good game plan against Hurts. It is usually about three games worth of tape in the NFL before opposing defenses begin to get a good book on quarterbacks to design more effective schemes. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Furthermore, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC East foes. Washington has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional foes. They gained 386 yards last week in the loss to the Panthers — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. It does look like it will be Alex Smith back under center for this game with his taking part in a limited practice on Friday after missing the last two games with a calf injury. This team also looks to get back running back Antonio Gibson and wide receiver Terry McLaurin. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Look for a conservative game plan that limits mistakes and leans heavily on the Football Team’s outstanding defense that ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 310.5 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: I expect an inspired effort from the Football Team. Sure, they need the win to make the playoffs. But with Smith’s comeback from his gruesome leg injury along with Rivera getting cancer treatments during the season, I just think there is a different resolve for this team. And Rivera dared to dump the apparent dead weight that was Dwayne Haskins — I think the locker room will appreciate no longer coddling the former top draft pick. Washington has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing in Philadelphia. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Washington Football Team (101) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (114) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (113). THE SITUATION: Carolina (5-10) snapped a three-game losing streak last Sunday with their 20-13 win at Washington as a 1-point favorite. New Orleans (11-4) ended a two-game losing streak with their 52-33 win against Minnesota as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Rookie head coach Matt Rhule has said he will play his starters in this game as he tries to instill a winning culture with his program. Carolina has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road. And while that game flew Under the 41.5 point total, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Panthers did surrender 386 yards in that game while being outgained by -106 net yards. But Carolina has then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 42 games at home after being outgained by at least 100 yards in their last game. The Panthers are dangerous underdogs who have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when getting the points. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when at least 50 combined points were scored. The Saints took a terrible blow to their offense with the news that Alvin Kamara tested positive for COVID. The offense is already without their top wide receiver, Michael Thomas. And Drew Brees has not been the same after returning from his broken ribs injury. He is completing only 56% of his passes with a Passer Rating of 83 since getting back on the field. It is not only Kamara but the entire running back department that is out for this game given tracing protocols — so it will not be Latavious Murray who running the football. Instead, it will be practice squad running backs and Taysom Hill supporting Brees in the backfield. They did outrush the Vikings by +174 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after outrushing their last opponent by at least 150 yards in their last game. The Saints’ defense has taken a step back as of late as well — they have allowed 55 combined points in their last two games. New Orleans has also allowed their last three opponents to average 171 rushing YPG. In those three games, the Saints allowed 29.7 PPG along with 396.0 total YPG. They allowed 274 passing yards last week — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina will be looking to play spoiler for the Saints’ attempt to earn the top-seed in the NFC playoffs. They are also motivated to avenge a 27-24 loss at New Orleans on October 25th as a 7-point favorite. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Saints. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Carolina Panthers (114) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (108) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (107). THE SITUATION: New York (5-10) has lost three straight games after their 27-13 loss at Baltimore as a 10-point underdog last Sunday. Dallas (6-9) has won three straight games with their 37-17 upset win at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog. The winner of this game puts themselves in position to make the playoffs from winning the NFC East if Washington loses on Sunday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): New York has lost three straight games — but they have all been against good teams looking to qualify for the playoffs in Arizona, Cleveland and then the Ravens last week. And while Daniel Jones was at his best this season before his hamstring injury since he was a threat with his legs, he still has been solid in the passing game since his return. He completed 25 of 41 passes for 252 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions last week — and he has not thrown an interception in five straight games. I thought the Giants were perhaps overvalued during their four-game winning streak in the second-half of the season — but they are being too quickly dismissed now. This is a gritty team under first-year head coach Joe Judge that plays solid fundamental football. They should play their best game in a month this afternoon. As it is, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing three of their last four games. They fell behind at halftime by a 20-3 score to the Ravens after falling behind by a 13-3 score at halftime to Cleveland the week before — but they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after trailing by double-digits at halftime in two straight games. Additionally, New Giants have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Look for the New York offense to center around Wayne Gallman who has rushed for 617 yards in place of the injured Saquon Barkley. He will be going against the worst run defense in the league that allows 161.1 rushing YPG this season. Facing the Cowboys may be just what the doctor ordered after this difficult stretch of games as the Giants have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional opponents. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in January. And in their last 10 games as an underdog, New York has covered the point spread in 7 of these games. Dallas is the toast of the town — again — right now with three straight wins including the last two as upset victories over the 49ers and then the Eagles last week. Their victory over the Bengals started the winning streak — but the Cowboys have not beaten a team with a winning record over this stretch. Don’t be surprised if and when Dallas disappoints yet again after playing themselves back into the playoff picture. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. The Dallas offense has found a rhythm as of late with Andy Dalton under center as they have scored at least 30 points in three straight games. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. They generated 513 yards again the Eagles’ defense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the Cowboys have up 477 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road in January. Furthermore, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread 16 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in these last six situations.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional opponents. They did defeat the Giants at home on October 11th by a 37-34 score as a 7.5-point favorite — but New York has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge. 25* NFC East Game of the Year with the New York Giants (108) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (482) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (481). THE SITUATION: New England (6-8) has lost two games in a row after their 22-12 upset loss at Miami as a 1.5-point favorite at the kickoff of that game. Buffalo (11-3) has won four straight games with their 48-19 win at Denver last Saturday as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills are the trendy team many observers are tabbing as the best team in the NFL as they ride their four-game winning streak while paying off bettors in six straight weeks. But these are the circumstances that could lead to an emotional letdown for this team — especially after an easy 29-point victory against a Broncos team with almost their entire secondary wiped out by injury. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win on the road by at least three touchdowns. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Additionally, the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after they won at least four games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in six straight games. Despite their 11 wins this season, Buffalo is only outgaining their opponents by +30.7 net YPG. They have won five of their six games decided by one scoring possession. This team now plays on Monday Night Football where they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games. The Bills are also 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against AFC East foes. New England has rebounded to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after an upset loss by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after an upset loss by at least 10 points as a road favorite. Now after playing their last three games on the road, the Patriots return home where they are 4-2 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. New England should stay competitive in this game because of their defense — they limit their visitors to just 19.3. They have held their last three opponents to just 15.3 PPG along with 319.7 YPG. They held the Dolphins to just 133 passing yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Remember, the Patriots have won their last two games at home against Baltimore and Arizona who are looking to make the playoffs this weekend. They are 38-13-3 ATS  in their last 54 games as an underdog under Bill Belichick — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home as an underdog. New England has also covered the point spread in 35 of their last 53 games in the final two weeks of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Belichick has been coy about who his starting quarterback will be tonight — but I do expect his team to revel in the opportunity to play the role of the spoiler. The Patriots lost the first meeting between these two teams on November 1st by a 24-21 score — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when avenging a loss by a field goal or less. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots (482) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (480) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (479). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (11-3) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven with their 24-16 win over Carolina as a 9.5-point favorite last Saturday. Tennessee (10-4) has won four of their last five games with their 46-25 win over Detroit last Sunday as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Green Bay has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. The Packers won this game despite Aaron Rodgers passing for just 143 yards. He was efficient — he completed 20 of 29 passes. And he was supported by an effective rushing attack that generated 195 yards on 27 carries. These are good signs for this game as the Packers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a game where they did not pass for at least 150 yards. They stay at home where they are 6-1 this season with an average winning margin of +10.1 net PPG. They are also outgaining their visitors by +86.1 net YPG. The Green Bay defense is playing better as the season moves on as they have held their last three opponents to just 18.7 PPG along with 311.7 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 65 home games after winning at least five or six of their last seven games. And while they have not covered the point spread in four of the last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 40 of their last 61 games at Lambeau after only covering the point spread once or twice in their last six games. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after playing a game at home where both teams scored at least 24 points. And while they raced out to a 24-15 lead in the first half last week against the Lions, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. They benefited from a +3 net turnover margin against Detroit last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games after a turnover margin of +3 or better in their last game. The Titans lack a pass rush — even when their supposed specialist, Jadeveon Clowney was not on Injured Reserve. When Tennessee takes the lead, their opponents can keep scoring relying on their passing attack. The Titans are 29th in the NFL by allowing 276 passing YPG — and opposing quarterbacks are completing 66% of their passes against their defense. Tennessee is 27th in the league by allowing 390.5 total YPG — and they are giving up 414.0 YPG over their last three contests. Now Tennessee goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (480) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

A 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Washington Football Team (470). THE SITUATION: Carolina (4-10) has lost three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 24-16 loss at Green Bay last Saturday as a 9.5-point underdog. Washington (6-8) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 20-15 loss at home to Seattle.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The news that Alex Smith would be out for the Football Team leaving Dwayne Haskins as their starting quarterback is enough to push the Panthers from a 10*/20* range to a strong 25* play. Carolina is underrated. They have been in a position to win or tie the game in the fourth quarter in all eight of their losses — and they are a frustrating 2-8 in games decided by one scoring possession. Despite their record, the Panthers are only being outgained by -2.3 net YPG — and they are losing the yardage battle by just -1.7 net YPG in their seven road games. Despite losing three in a row, they have outgained their opponents by +21.6 net YPG after dominating the Packers last Saturday in that department by a 364 to 291 yardage margin. These are the underlying numbers of a team that would usually be 7-7. In an expected close game that will likely be decided in the fourth quarter, I will take Teddy Bridgewater over Haskins. The veteran is completing 69.8% of his passes for 3360 yards this season. Carolina has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while they trailed at halftime last week by a 21-3 score, the Panthers have then covered the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after not scoring more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Now this team stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Football Team gave up 181 rushing yards to the Seahawks last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Haskins completed 38 of 55 passes for 295 yards last week — but he also threw two interceptions. He is completing only 62.9% of his passes this season with just a 6.0 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He has five interceptions along with five touchdown passes. He also seems to have completely lost the confidence of the coaching staff and teammates. Remember, he was relegated to the third-string quarterback early in the season — he is starting this game only because of injuries to Smith and Kyle Allen. Haskins breaking COVID protocols by visiting an adult establishment last week does not inspire confidence about his leadership skills. The announcement that Smith cannot play was likely demoralizing for this team fighting for a playoff spot. The Football Team has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against a team with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina will be doubly motivated — not only to play the role of spoiler to Washington’s playoff hopes but in facing their former coach in Ron Rivera. While Rivera was well-liked, facing their old coach should ensure a spring in the steps of this Panthers team. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Carolina Panthers (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Washington Football Team (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (466) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (465). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-3) is reeling with three straight losses after their embarrassing 27-17 upset loss at Cincinnati on Monday as a 14.5-point favorite. Indianapolis (10-4) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 27-20 win against Houston as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: We had the Bengals as out AFC North Game of the Year — so I am well aware of the problems of this Steelers’ team right now. They are decimated by injuries at linebacker and their offensive line is beat-up. And Big Ben Roethlisberger looks old and cannot deliver the ball down the field. Got it. But this a good buy-low spot for Pittsburgh. Part of the problem with the Bengals’ game was that the Steelers were taking them lightly while it was the de-facto Super Bowl for Cincinnati. Pittsburgh did play better in the second half of that game but could not rally from the 17-0 hole they dug themselves at halftime. The Steelers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games at home after an upset loss to an AFC North rival — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a double-digit loss to a divisional foe. Part of the problem for Pittsburgh has been their lack of running game — their 86 rushing yards last week were the most they generated in their last four contests. But the Steelers have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not rushing for at least 100 yards in three straight games. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning at least three games in a row. Pittsburgh does expect a healthier James Connor for this game which should help them get their ground game going again. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning at least three games in a row. And while the Colts have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. Indianapolis defeated the Texans last week despite being outgained by -75 net yards after surrendering 42 yards. The Colts gave up 362 passing yards in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. And while Indy has not allowed more than 90 rushing yards in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing 100 or more rushing yards in at least three straight games. The Colts’ defense has taken a step back as of late as they have allowed their last three opponents to average 415.7 total YPG. Indy is also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC opponents. Look for a desperate and angry Steelers team to play their best game in a month. 20* NFL Indianapolis-Pittsburgh CBS-TV Special with the Pittsburgh Steelers (466) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (465). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (462) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (461). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (7-7) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 30-27 upset loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point favorite. Miami (9-5) has won three of their last four games with their 22-12 upset win against New England that closed with them being a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins are due for an emotional letdown after defeating Bill Belichick and his Patriots. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after an upset victory as a home dog against a divisional rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after pulling an upset against an AFC East foe. The Dolphins got a surprising rushing effort from undrafted rookie Salvon Ahmed who ran for 122 yards while leading an attack that generated 250 yards on the ground. But Miami has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. And while rookie Tua Tagovailoa completed 20 of 26 passes, it was for only 145 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not passing for more than 150 yards. This team is living off forcing turnovers — they lead the NFL with 26 takeaways. But turnovers are fickle — and if they dry up, the Dolphins are a team that has to win games despite being outgained by -30.5 net YPG. On the road, it is even worse as Miami is being outgained by -36.0 net YPG. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Las Vegas has likely played themselves out of the playoffs — but they can still play the role of spoiler. Despite the losing streak, they have outgained their last three opponents by +26.4 net YPG. The Raiders allowed 402 yards to the Chargers in that heartbreaking loss last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 402 yards in their last game. Derek Carr is available to play in this game after leaving the game last week with a groin injury. Marcus Mariota was impressive in relief as he completed 17 of 28 passes for 226 yards while adding another 88 yards on the ground. But it is the running game that will be key for the Raiders in this game. They rushed for 173 yards against the Chargers — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. They also outrushed LA by 77 net yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least 75 yards.

FINAL TAKE: The pressure is off the Raiders given their recent slide — but they can make things difficult for Miami who is not used to playing games with playoff implications. The Dolphins control their fate to claim the final wildcard spot in the AFC — but a loss would put Baltimore back in play to take their spot. 25* NFL Bailout Game of the Month with the Las Vegas Raiders (462) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (459) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (460). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-9) has lost three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 41-33 upset loss at Dallas as a 4-point favorite. Arizona (8-6) has won their last two games with their 33-26 win against Philadelphia last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: San Francisco has suffered three straight upset losses to eliminate them from the playoff race. The reigning NFC champions have simply been ravaged by injuries. Yet they can play the role of the spoiler this afternoon against a divisional rival. They have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. The Niners have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after an upset loss on the road as the favorite. The 49ers’ defense is playing pretty well — hey are allowing only 311.0 net YPG in their last three games while holding their home hosts to just 286.3 total YPG. Third-string quarterback C.J. Beathard will be under center given injuries to Jimmy Garappolo and Nick Mullens. This is his first start since 2018 — but he does have ten professional starts under his belt. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in the last 10 road games as an underdog, the Niners have covered the point spread in 7 of these games. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 home games after a win at home. And while Kyler Murray completed 27 of 36 passes for 406 yards last week against the Eagles, the Cardinals have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Arizona gained 526 yards against the Eagles after gaining 390 yards against the New York Giants in their previous game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 375 yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (459) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (451) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (452). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-8) has lost two games in a row with their 33-27 loss to Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (10-4) has lost two games in a row after their 32-29 loss to Kansas City as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after losing two games in a row. Head coach Mike Zimmer’s team has started slow in both losses as they trailed the Bears by a 20-10 score at halftime last week after being behind to Tampa Bay by a 17-6 halftime score in their previous game. But the Vikings have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after trailing by double-digits at halftime in two straight contests. Additionally, Minnesota has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss to an NFC North rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home after a point spread loss. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 home games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Furthermore, the Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Additionally, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 56 home games in the final four weeks of the season.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games as an underdog. 10* NFL Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (451) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (370) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (369). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-10-1) has lost five games in a row after their 30-7 loss at home to Dallas last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Pittsburgh (11-2) has lost two games in a row with their 26-13 loss at Buffalo last Sunday night as a 2-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a good opportunity to offer the reminder that we don’t bet on teams — we bet on point spreads. The Steelers are in no position to be a favorite of around two touchdowns to anybody right now. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 games as a double-digit favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games when favored by 10.5 to 14 points. Ben Roethlisberger is banged up right now. He denies he has a knee issue but he lacks any ability to move in the pocket and he is having difficulty planting his foot for deeper balls. Pittsburgh is limited to mostly quick passes which Roethlisberger is still good at. However, when opposing defenses can key-in on these quick strikes and lay off worrying too much about deep balls, then this approach can get stuck in the mud. The Steelers have not scored more than 19 points in three straight games. Pittsburgh is averaging only 294.7 total YPG during that stretch. To compound matters, the Steelers are getting very little from their running game. They have run for only 136 combined yards in their last three games. Pittsburgh has not rushed for more than 48 yards in five of their last seven games. James Conner has been injured but he ran the ball only ten times for 17 yards in his return to action last week. He is questionable tonight with the quad injury that has slowed him down. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. And while these problems on offense has contributed to them playing four straight Unders, Pittsburgh has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing four straight Unders. Furthermore, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 6 games in December, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread all 6 times. Cincinnati should play well after their embarrassing effort at home. Not only have the Bengals covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss at home. Cincinnati has been pretty sneaky good at home this season before laying an egg against the Cowboys in that Andy Dalton revenge game. The Bengals have a 2-point loss to New England and a 3-point loss to Cleveland at home — and their two wins against Tennessee and Tennessee were at home. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. They are down to their third-string quarterback tonight with Ryan Finley with Joe Burrow out the season and then Brandon Allen being declared out tonight with a knee injury. Finley has plenty of NFL experience — he has thrown 106 passes in the regular season for 549 yards with two touchdown passes. Finley cannot be much worse than Allen as the Bengals have not scored more than 17 points in five straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after not scoring more than 17 points in five straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati will be looking to avenge a 36-10 loss at Pittsburgh on November 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* AFC North Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bengals (370) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (369). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (362) plus the point versus the Cleveland Browns (361). THE SITUATION: New York (5-8) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last week with their 26-7 loss to Arizona as a 3-point underdog. Cleveland (9-4) comes off their dramatic 47-42 loss to Baltimore on Monday Night Football as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has plenty to play for in this game with a victory giving them a tie for first place in the NFC East after Washington lost to Seattle this afternoon. The Giants have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. New York has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. And while the Giants managed only 159 total yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Daniel Jones was back under center last week but he might have been rushed back on the field with his hamstring injury. Jones has been a threat with his legs but that injury left him immobile in the pocket — he was sacked six times. The veteran Colt McCoy will be starter again tonight after he was the starter two weeks ago when the Giants upset Seattle on the road. The New York defense has been the catalyst to their improved play. They have held their last three opponents to jut 18.3 PPG along with 290.7 total YPG. The Giants have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog. Cleveland is vulnerable to being satisfied with their competitive loss to the Ravens on Monday — this is a group that too often makes their own announcement as to just how good they are. Yet the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they are just 16-41-1 ATS in their last 58 games after a straight-up loss. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. Despite their 9-4 record, the Browns are being outscored by -1.5 PPG. They go on the road where they are being outgained by -24.2 net YPG while being outscored by -6.9 PPG despite their 4-2 record. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite. Cleveland may win this game — but this should be a close game. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the New York Giants (362) plus the point versus the Cleveland Browns (361). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (366) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (365). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (10-3) looks to rebound from their 24-21 upset loss at Philadelphia last week as a 7.5-point favorite. Kansas City (12-1) looks to build off their 33-27 win at Miami last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans should respond with a big effort in this game as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss —and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less on the road. The Saints’ defense surrendered 413 yards against the Eagles but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. And while they gained 358 yards behind Taysom Hill at quarterback, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards. New Orleans does not play at home often as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games as a dog. Drew Brees returns under center for this team in this game but he will not have Michael Thomas who will not play because of an injury until the playoffs. The Saints’ defense should play better in this one. They are holding their opponents to just 20.4 PPG along with 298.3 total YPG — and they have held their last three opponents to only 14.3 PPG along with 285.7 total YPG. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win where they did not cover the point spread. The Chiefs are getting comfortable living dangerously with five straight victories by six points or less — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last two games by six points or fewer. And while Kansas City is getting used to their offense bailing them out by averaging 479.3 total YGP, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games after averaging at least 450 YPG in three straight contests. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range including four of these last five situations. 10* NFL Kansas City-New Orleans CBS-TV Special with the New Orleans Saints (366) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (365). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (358) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (357). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-7) looks to bounce back from their 26-14 loss at Tampa Bay last week as a 7-point underdog. Chicago (6-7) snapped a six-game losing streak last Sunday with their 36-7 upset victory at home against Houston as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has been very reliable when placed in the bounce-back mode as they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. The Vikings have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Minnesota did get 162 rushing yards last week with Delvin Cook leading the way which is a good sign for this game as they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They return home for the last time for this game where they are scoring a healthy 29.1 PPG while averaging 419.3 total YPG. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 home games with the total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range including covering the spread in five of these last six situations. Chicago enjoyed a transcendent game from Mitchell Trubisky who completed 24 of 33 passes for 267 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. But look for the Bears to take a step back as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a win by at least three touchdowns. And while the Bears dominated the Texans by outgaining them by +153 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards. That game was the first time that Chicago had met point spread expectations in their last five games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after only covering the point spread once in their last four contests. They go back on the road where they are being outscored by -3.7 net PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Despite the strong defensive effort last week, they have still allowed their last three opponents to score 27.3 PPG while averaging 372.0 total YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against NFC North foes — and the Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional foes. Chicago will be playing with revenge on their minds after losing at home to Minnesota by a 19-13 score as a 3-point underdog — but the home team has still covered the point spread in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFC North Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (358) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (346) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (345). THE SITUATION: Denver (5-8) snapped a two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 32-27 upset victory at Carolina as a 4-point underdog. Buffalo (10-3) comes off a high-profile victory last Sunday night against Pittsburgh by a 26-13 score as a 2-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills doubled-up the Steelers score last week despite gaining only 334 yards of offense. But this Buffalo team may be due for an emotional letdown now facing a 5-8 Broncos team on the road. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games after winning at least four of their last five games — including failing to cover the point spread in four of these last six circumstances. Buffalo has won ten of their thirteen games despite only outgaining their opponents by +11.6 net YPG. And while they are 4-2 in their six games on the road, they have a flat net PPG margin of 0.0 in those contests. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. And while Buffalo is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.9% of their passes, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams who allow their opponents to complete at least 64% of his passes. Drew Lock comes off his best game in the NFL last week as he completed 21 of his 27 passes of 280 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. He led an offense that generated 365 yards — and Denver has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Broncos have lost four of their last six games, the Broncos have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Denver has lost the turnover battle in five straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after enduring a -1 or worse net turnover margin in at least four straight contests. The Broncos have suffered some key injuries on defense this season — but they have still held their guests to just 336.0 YPG when playing at home. This Denver is dealing with some significant injuries (and one suspension) — and they are particularly thin at cornerback for this game. That is certainly not ideal — but head coach Vic Fangio is a defensive coach who is as good as it gets in finding solutions. Remember, we are not betting teams, we are betting point spreads that take into account injuries before the market gets involved. The good news is that Denver does expect to have their vastly improved left tackle Grant Bolles as well as tight end Noah Fant available for this game (and I am not too worried about them not having their top place kicker, Brandon McManus, either — they have been working with a backup kicker after their quarterback debacle that left them without options a few weeks ago).

FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against AFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December. Look for the Broncos to keep this game close as they embrace the role of the spoiler without any pressure in this game. 25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (346) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (345). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (301) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-9) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-17 win over Atlanta as a 3-point favorite. Las Vegas (7-6) has lost three of their last four games with their 44-27 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 3 points or less. And while Los Angeles has only covered the point spread once in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 30 of their last 44 games on the road after failing to cover the point spread in at least three of their last four games. Despite their losing record and -5.0 net PPG average on the season, the Chargers are outgaining their opponents by +45.9 net YPG with an offense and defense that are both top-nine in the league in yardage. LA is also outgaining their home hosts when playing on the road. Anthony Lynn’s team is too often finding ways to lose — but they are playing close games with seven of their losses decided by one scoring possession. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They are also 32-15-1 ATS in their last 48 road games as an underdog. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games after not covering the point spread in at least three straight games. Head coach Jon Gruden has a mess on his hands-on defense. Not only did he fire his defensive coordinator, Paul Guenther, this week after they allowed over 200 rushing yards for the second straight week, but injuries have ruled our four defensive starters tonight in defensive backs Johnathan Abram and Damon Arnette along with linebacker Nicholas Morrow and defensive end Clelin Ferrell. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in two straight games. Las Vegas has been outrushed by 133 and 134 yards in each of their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after being outrushed by at least 75 yards in two straight games. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. And in their last 8 games in December, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are playing out the string — but they can not only spoil the Raiders’ playoff hopes but they can also avenge a 31-26 loss to Las Vegas on November 8th. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing in the Raiders’ home stadium. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (301) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (179) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (180). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (7-5) snapped their three-game losing streak last Sunday with their 34-17 win over Dallas as an 8.5-point favorite. Cleveland (9-3) has won four games in a row with their 41-35 upset win at Tennessee as a 4-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore got the ground game cracking last week with 294 yards on a 7.9 Yards-Per-Carry average which they will certainly rev-up again tonight. This is a very good sign for head coach John Harbaugh’s team as they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games on the road after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Ravens allowed 388 yards to the Cowboys, they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Ravens’ recent losing streak took place while defensive tackles Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams were out with injuries — but they both returned last week for the Cowboys game. Campbell is listed as questionable with his calf injury but hopefully, he will play. Baltimore is allowing only 19.2 PPG this season which is 4th best in the league. Now Baltimore goes back on the road where they are 4-2 this season with an average winning margin of +6.0 PPG. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they are 32-14-6 ATS in their last 50 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Harbaugh’s team has also covered the point spread in 6 straight road games in December. Additionally, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against AFC North opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when playing on Monday Night Football. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 appearances on Monday Night Football. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. They return home where they are just 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 home games as an underdog. The Browns are dealing with injuries in their secondary with their best cornerback, Denzel Ward, out with a calf injury. They surrendered 431 total yards last week to the Titans — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland got thrashed in the first meeting between these two teams in the opening week of the season when Baltimore beat the Browns by a 38-6 score. But the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with revenge. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 meetings with the Browns — and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games against them when playing Cleveland. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Baltimore Ravens (179) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (180). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (177) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (178). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-1) suffered their first loss of the season on Monday in their 23-17 upset loss at home to Washington as a 5.5-point favorite. Buffalo (9-3) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 34-24 upset win at San Francisco as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): The loss on Monday may have been a bit of a relief to head coach Mike Tomlin who has been complaining about the play of his team despite their unbeaten record before that setback. Tomlin likely had an attentive team this week in practice. Pittsburgh needs to get back to running the football more after putting too much pressure on Ben Roethlisberger to carry the offense with his arm. Big Ben has attempted at least 45 passes in five straight games. The talented wide receiving corps has been feeling the pressure with their league-leading 34 dropped passes this season. Fortunately, Tomlin expects his All-Pro center, Maurkice Pouncey, and running back James Conner back for this game just in time. This team should back to basics — run the ball, don’t ask too much of your quarterback, and lean your our outstanding defense. The Steel Curtain leads the NFL by allowing only 17.6 PPG this season — and they are third in the league by giving up only 300.5 total YPG. They have suffered injuries at linebacker with Bud Dupree joining Devin Bush in incurring a season-ending injury — but they still only allowed 13.3 PPG along with 247.7 YPG in their last three games. As it is, the Steelers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Now Pittsburgh goes back on the road where they are 5-0 with an average winning margin of +9.2 PPG. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games as an underdog. Buffalo may be due for a letdown after their high-profile win in prime-time on Monday. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 47 games after winning four of their last five games. Despite their 9-3 record, Buffalo is only outgaining their opponents by +3.4 YPG. The Bills’ defense has taken a step back this season as they are allowing 375.4 total YPG which is 21st in the league. This unit lost some key pieces from the group that was third in total defense last season — their heart-and-soil leader, Lorenzo Alexander, retired in the offseason and defensive linemen Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson along with cornerback Kevin Johnson were  all poached in free agency. Defensive tackle Star Lotuleilei then opted out because of COVID. These losses have left this Bills’ defense small — they are allowing their opponents to average 126.0 rushing YPG which is 9th worst in the league. The Niners’ offense led by Nick Mullens gained 402 yards against them on Monday — and they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams from the AFC — and Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against AFC foes. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (177) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (175) minus points versus the Washington Football Team (176). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-7) looks to rebound from their 34-24 upset loss in their temporary home at Glendale, Arizona on Monday. Washington (5-7) has won three games in a row after their 23-17 upset win at Pittsburgh on Monday as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: After the emotional high of giving the Steelers their first loss of the season, look for the Football Team to be flat in this game. As it is, Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. This is a very difficult situation for Ron Rivera’s team to be playing on a short week while being away from home for the third straight week. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after a game played on Monday Night Football. The Football Team has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing their last two games on the road. They will be without one of their best weapons on offense in running back Anthony Gibson who suffered an injury early in that game against Pittsburgh. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games away from home after suffering an upset loss. They did gain 402 yards against the Bills defense in the losing effort — and they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Niners have just seven points in each of the first halves of their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than 7 points in the first half in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is slowly getting healthier — and they could still make the playoffs if they win out the rest of their games. I don’t see this team giving up on Kyle Shanahan — and they have an opportunity to catch a Washington team that is not used to handling good times. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the San Francisco 49ers (175) minus points versus the Washington Football Team (176). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (157) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the New York Giants (158). THE SITUATION: Arizona (6-6) has lost three games in a row after their 38-28 loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams last week as a 2.5-point underdog. New York (5-7) has won four straight games after their 17-12 upset victory at Seattle last Sunday as an 11-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The Giants are a popular play this week in many circles after their high-profile signature victory — but they are just 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games after a point spread win. New York is playing great defense as of late as they are allowing only 16.5 PPG over their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Backup quarterback Colt McCoy completed 13 of 22 passes for 105 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the win — but the Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not passing for more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Daniel Jones is expected to return to this game but his hamstring injury will limit the mobility that he has relied on to energize the offense since the season-ending injury to Saquon Barkley. Now New York returns home to MetLife where they are just 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games as an underdog. The Giants score only 19.0 PPG at home while averaging 300.2 total YPG — they are being outscored by -5.6 PPG while being outgained by -59.0 net YPG when playing at home. Arizona managed only 232 yards last week while only having their offense on the field for 21:07 minutes in their loss to the Rams — but they are then 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. The Cardinals surrendered 463 yards to the Rams as well with 344 of those yards coming in the air — but they are then 23-11-3 ATS in their last 37 games after allowing at least 250 pain yards in their last game. Arizona goes back on the road where they are 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games — and they have covered the point span in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona misses Chandler Jones on defense who suffered a season-ending injury earlier in the year. And Kyler Murray has not been as productive as of late either because of an undisclosed injury or a sophomore slump. Yet the Cardinals have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips east to play the Giants. They are still holding home teams to just 19.8 PPG along with 327.77 total YPG — and they are outscoring their home hosts by +5.4 PPG while outgaining them by +41.2 net YPG. 10* NFL Road Warrior Wipeout with the Arizona Cardinals (157) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the New York Giants (158). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (102) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (101). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-4) has won three of their last four games with their 38-28 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. New England (6-6) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 45-0 victory in Los Angeles against the Chargers.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles had their offensive clicking on all cylinders against the Cardinals. They held the ball for 38:53 minutes while cranking out 463 yards. Quarterback Jared Goff completed 37 of 47 passes for 351 yards. The Rams should build off their momentum for this game as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Additionally, while LA generated 30 first downs against Arizona, they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after controlling the clock for at least 34 minutes while gaining at least 34 first downs in their last game. The Rams shined on defense as well as they held the Cardinals’ offensive attack to just 232 yards. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 150 yards. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points. New England outclassed the Chargers last week despite only gaining 291 total yards. The Patriots scored two special teams touchdowns from a 70-yard punt return for a touchdown along with a 44-yard blocked field goal returned for a TD. But Bill Belichick’s team has not been very good at maintaining consistency as they are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. New England is also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Patriots have simplified their game-plan with Cam Newton under center to be a run-first team that does not try to rely on his arm. Newton attempted only 19 passes on Sunday for a mere 69 yards. New England is third in the NFL by averaging 150.9 rushing YPG — but they now face the stout Rams’ defense that is third in the league by holding their opponents to just 93.1 rushing YPG. If the Patriots do not find success running the football, they lack a credible Plan B. Even if Newton was a better gunslinger at this point of his career, he lacks the weapons at wide receiver to be productive — especially against this Rams secondary which might be the best in the league. Despite their 6-6 record, Los Angeles is getting outgained in yardage this season.

FINAL TAKE: New England has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the final four weeks of the season — and the Rams are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in December. Head coach Sean McVay has been thinking about this opportunity to avenge his team’s loss in Super Bowl 53 for a long time. His team has a decided talent edge this time around. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Rams (102) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (483) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (484). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-8) has lost five of their last six games after their 41-26 upset loss to Washington on Thanksgiving as a 2.5-point favorite. Baltimore (6-5) has lost three straight games as well as four of their last five contests after their 19-14 loss at Pittsburgh last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Baltimore may be flat in this game after playing their arch-rivals on a short week (as Pittsburgh was last night against Washington). As it is, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. Baltimore has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The Ravens really miss left tackle Ronnie Stanley who is out the season with an ankle injury. His absence explains much of the reason why Baltimore is averaging 18.3 PPG in their last three games with just 294.0 total YPG over that span. Their offense does get Lamar Jackson back for this game — but remember that Cam Newton struggled both physically and mentally (COVID has been shown to negatively impact brain functioning with many sufferers complaining of being in a fog for an extended period of time even after recovery). Don’t expect Jackson to be back at 100% tonight. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 home games when favored. Baltimore has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games with the total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Dallas was humiliated on national television in their last game — and they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after an upset loss by at least three touchdowns. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after an upset loss by at least two touchdowns. Dallas will certainly have the situational edge with almost two weeks of rest and preparation for this contest. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after playing on a Thursday. They also have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. And while Dallas surrendered 182 rushing yards to the Football Team, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after allowing at least 175 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Dallas can pull within one game of the NY Giants and Washington in the NFC East race — but the opportunity to play spoiler against the Ravens may be more realistic for this football team. Pride is on the line after how they played on Thanksgiving. 10* NFL Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with the Dallas Cowboys (483) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (484). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (486) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (485). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-6) snapped their three-game losing streak last Sunday with their 23-20 upset win in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 5-point underdog. Buffalo (8-3) has won four of their last five games after their 27-17 win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week as a 4.5-point favorite. With COVID regulations precluding football games to be played in Santa Clara County, the 49ers have moved to Glendale, Arizona for their temporary home with this contest being played in the Cardinals’ State Farm Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINTS: San Francisco outgained the Rams by +37 net yards by controlling the time of possession by over 34 minutes and limiting them to just 308 yards of offense. The Niners held a 7-3 halftime lead in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. And while San Francisco has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Head coach Kyle Shanahan’s team is getting back some important players on both sides of the football. Running backs Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman along with wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are back on offense. They got back Richard Sherman on defense last week to help a unit that is 4th in the league by allowing just 206.7 passing YPG. Despite a host of injuries all season, the Niners’ defense has been consistently strong under the guidance of defensive coordinator Robert Saleh — they are allowing only 315.2 total YPG which is 5th best in the NFL. The 49ers also rank 6th in the NFL by holding opposing rushers to just 3.65 Yards-Per-Carry. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams from the AFC — and they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 43 games on Monday Night Football. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 46 games after winning four of their last five games — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in their last four games under those circumstances. And while the Bills have covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 39 of their last 61 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Quarterback Josh Allen has not played as well after a hot start to the season. Allen completed 69.3% of his passes for his first four games for a 330 passing YPG average with a 9.1 Yards-Per-Attempt rate while averaging 3.0 touchdown passes per game. But in his last seven games, Allen is averaging only 243.1 passing YPG with a 7.43 YAP while tossing only 1.43 touchdowns per game. Buffalo is not playing as well on defense this season either. They are 18th in the league by allowing 243.5 passing YPG — and they are 25th in the NFL by allowing 129.6 rushing YPG. The Chargers gained 367 yards against them last week — and the Bills are 1-4-1 ATS  in their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo is getting outgained this season despite their 8-3 record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (486) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (485). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (487) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (488). THE SITUATION: Washington (4-7) has won two straight games after their 41-16 upset victory at Dallas on Thanksgiving by a 41-16 score as a 2.5-point underdog. Pittsburgh (11-0) remained unbeaten last Wednesday with their 19-14 win over Baltimore as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM PLUS THE POINTS: Washington has the situational edge in this game with them having eleven days between games while the Steelers are on a short week after playing their rescheduled game with the Ravens on Wednesday. The Football Team is finding their groove under first-year head coach Ron Rivera now that he has found his quarterback in Alex Smith. Washington has scored 29.3 PPG in the three games Smith has started. He is completing 69% of his passes (5th best in the NFL) while leading an offense that is 5th in Success Rate in those three games. The Football Team tends to build off their momentum when they are playing well. Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win. Furthermore, the Football Team has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least 21 points against an NFC East rival. Their triumph over the Cowboys came after they defeated Cincinnati by a 20-9 score — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning two straight games by double-digits. Smith’s efficient game-management is complementing the tough Washington defense that is 8th in the NFL against the pass and 5th against the run. The Football Team has 36 sacks and 66 hits on the quarterback which are both the second-best marks in the league. Pittsburgh returns to action after that physical game with the Ravens — they were flat and had to conduct a second-half comeback to eke out a 24-19 win against Dallas after their first game with Baltimore this season. And while the Steelers have covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Pittsburgh is the lone undefeated team in the league but they have benefited from the second-easiest schedule. They have survived five close games decided by one possession. The Steelers have not allowed more than 14 points in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after not allowing more than 17 points in three straight games. Pittsburgh will be without running back James Conner again this week after they rushed for only 68 yards last week. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh is dealing with some injuries with star linebacker Bud Dupree out the season which makes them a bit thin at that position with Devin Bush already out the year. They will miss his eight sacks and eight hits on the quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger also missed the last three practices given his injured knee. Expect Washington to keep it close. 10* NFL Washington-Pittsburgh Fox-TV Special with the Washington Football Team (487) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Denver (4-7) has lost three of their last four games with their 31-3 loss at home to New Orleans last week as a 17-point underdog. Kansas City (10-1) has won six games in a row after their 27-24 win at Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Denver was embarrassed as an organization last week with their four-touchdown loss the culmination of their COVID outbreak that left them with their entire active quarterback depth chart inactive. The Broncos have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss at home. Denver has also covered the point spread i 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The Broncos did not have a credible passing attack last week with wide receiver Kendall Hinton serving as the quarterback. He completed only one pass of 13 yards. Denver does get Drew Lock back this week under center who should have something to prove. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And while they managed only 112 yards of offense last week, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. The key to this game will be slowing down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Denver has held their last three opponents to just 290.7 total YPG. They go on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up victory where they did not cover the point spread. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Kansas City is averaging a robust 466.7 total YPG over their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 straight games after averring at least 450 YPG in their lat three games. Despite that offensive productivity, the Chiefs are only outscoring these three opponents by +3.0 PPG. These last three games have been decided by just nine combined points. Furthermore, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 12 games in Weeks 10 through 13.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs won the first meeting between these two teams by a 43-16 score — with two of those touchdowns coming from a defensive score and a special teams TD. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (465) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (466). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (8-3) has won three in a row after their 27-25 win at Jacksonville last week as a 7.5-point favorite. Tennessee (8-3) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 45-26 upset win at Indianapolis as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee has pulled off two straight upset victories with their revenge triumph over the Colts preceded by their 30-24 win at Baltimore. But the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after an upset win on the road by at least two touchdowns. Tennessee raced out to a 35-14 lead over Indianapolis last week — yet they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Additionally, the Titans are 19-39-1 ATS in their last 59 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while Tennessee surrendered 280 passing yards to the Colts in the winning effort, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Titans have the kind of defense that Browns’ QB Baker Mayfield tends to play his best against because they lack a pass rush which pushes him to hurry his throws in the pocket. Cleveland has won eight straight games when Mayfield posts a Passer Rating of at least (a modest) 70. He completed 19 of 29 passes for 258 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions last week. Mayfield has now played three straight games without throwing an interception. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Browns lead the NFL by averaging 161 rushing YPG this season — and Nick Chubb has rushed for at least 100 yards in three straight games. The Titans are vulnerable against good rushing teams where they rank in the middle of the pack by allowing 116 rushing YPG (15th) and 4.3 Yards-Per-Carry (16th). Cleveland rushed for 207 yards last week on 33 carries — and not only have they then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards but they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. They averaged 7.4 Yards-Per-Play overall last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Cleveland is banged up in their secondary with injuries but they do get defensive end extraordinaire Myles Garrett back from the COVID list for this game. 

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee is only outgaining their opponents by +1.1 net YPG this season despite their 8-3 record — and they are being outgained by -54.3 net YPG when playing at home. The Titans have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite. Expect a close game. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (465) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (466). Best of luck for us — Frank.