At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (149) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (150). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-16 loss on the road against the Bengals as an 11-point underdog last Sunday. Cincinnati (12-4) has won eight games in a row after their victory against the Ravens last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: Baltimore is going to be a tough out for the Bengals being a divisional rival who knows them very well. The Ravens are outstanding in two of the three phases of the game. Their special teams rank 3rd in the NFL using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. Head coach John Harbaugh will lean on special teams and his defense which has been outstanding in the second half of the season since acquiring linebacker Roquan Smith from Chicago. Since that trade, Baltimore is holding their opponents to 14.7 Points-Per-Game and 288.8 Yards-Per-Game, ranking 2nd and 3rd in the NFL during that span. Additionally, they lead the league by allowing only 11 touchdowns with Smith on the team while ranking tied for third by allowing only 40 Big Plays — and they are 6th in Sack Percentage per opponent dropback. Anthony Brown was their quarterback last week — he completed only 19 of 44 passes but for 286 yards against the Bengals' defense while leading the Ravens to 386 total yards. Lamar Jackson is not close to ready to return to the field with swelling still in his knee. It looks to be Tyler Huntley back at quarterback tonight — but no matter who is under center, the Ravens will commit to running the ball after sandbagging their rushing attack with only 27 running plays last week, the fewest in 11 games. But the Harbaugh formula success works — his teams have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog. Additionally, Baltimore is 33-13-5 ATS in their last 51 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road in the postseason. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning a game at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. The Bengals have significant injury issues on their offensive line with both La’el Collins and Alex Cappa out with injuries — meaning Joe Burrow will be playing behind backups on the right side of the line. The narrative that this Bengals unit has improved from last year appears overstated on closer analysis. Instead, the improved sack numbers this season are more likely the result of Burrow’s improved mobility in the pocket two years after his ACL injury. Cincinnati has a Pass Block Win Rate of 50% (even when healthy) which is the third-worst in the NFL. They also struggle to run the football — they are averaging only 2.8 Yards-Per-Carry in their last three games with a 60 rushing YPG average. Baltimore has proven to be one of the most difficult opponents for Burrow to move the ball in his career. In their previous two games this season, Burrow only completes 63.6% of his passes for 432 yards and a 5.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with only two touchdown passes. The Ravens play do not blitz Burrow under new defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald — instead, they use eight players in pass coverage while showing exotic looks regarding who and when their four rushers go after Burrow.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the Wildcard Round — and the Bengals are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the AFC Wildcard Round. The Road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these two teams — and I expect those trends to continue. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Baltimore Ravens (149) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (144) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (143). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (9-8) has won five games in a row after their 20-16 win against Tennessee as a 6-point favorite last Saturday night. Los Angeles (10-7) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 31-28 loss at Denver as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville experienced a character-building victory last week by relying on their defense to pull out a “must-have” game against a tenacious Titans team. We had Tennessee last week so it was expected that Mike Vrabel’s team would impose their will on the Jaguars in a low-scoring contest behind a rested Derrick Henry — but Jacksonville forced a late strip-sack on the Titans’ Joshua Dobbs that Josh Allen scooped up and raced into the end zone for the winning score. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games after defeating an AFC South rival in their last game. While Trevor Lawrence is getting most of the attention for this team, their defense has forced 11 turnovers in the last five games. Jacksonville has held their last three opponents to just 272.0 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 7.3 Points-Per-Game they have allowed. The Jaguars are developing a formidable home-field advantage at TIAA Bank Field where they have won five of their seven games this season while holding their guests to just 335.3 total YPG and 19.0 PPG. They were neglected an eighth home game this season with their annual trip to London — but they come into this game on a four-game home winning streak which includes victories against playoff teams Baltimore and Dallas. Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as an underdog. Lawrence does appear to have taken the next step in his development into one of the elite quarterbacks in the league. In his first eight starts this season, Lawrence completed 62.5% of his passes for 1840 yards and a 6.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with 10 touchdown passes, six interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 84.0. In his last nine starts, the former number one pick in the NFL draft completed 69.7% of his passes for 2273 yards and a 7.4 YPA with 15 touchdowns, only two interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 104.6 that leads the league during that span. He should get plenty of help from running back Travis Etienne who averaged 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry en route to his 1125 rushing yards this season. The Chargers rank 29th in the league in Run Defense using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They allow 5.6 YPC on the road which has resulted in home teams generating 156 rushing YPG. James Robinson torched this Chargers' defense for 120 yards in their first meeting on September 25th. Los Angeles head coach Brandon Staley loves his two-high safety shell looks — and that scheme worked when he was the defensive coordinator with the Rams two years ago. But without Aaron Donald patrolling the middle of the line of scrimmage, his Chargers’ defense has been mauled by opposing rushing attacks in his two seasons as their head coach. While the run defense improved in the second half of the season, Los Angeles has allowed their last two opponents to rush for 371 yards — throwing water on the narrative that getting Joey Bosa back elevated their ability to stop the run. The Jaguars are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams from the AFC. Los Angeles has scored 59 points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 25 points in their last two games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after scoring 25 or more points in two games in a row. Furthermore, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing to an AFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing to a divisional rival by seven points or less. And while Los Angeles has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. It should be noted that the Chargers played a weak schedule down the stretch that included Tennessee (in the game where Ryan Tannehill got injured), Indianapolis, the LA Rams, and then the Broncos — all teams that did not make the playoffs. Additionally, the loss of wide receiver Mike Williams is devastating for this team after Staley felt the need to play his key starters for an extended length of time last week despite having little at stake in their game against the Broncos. Williams injured his back in that game which will keep him out of this contest. The Chargers were 8-5 with a healthy Williams while scoring more than 24 PPG and averaging 372 YPG and 276 passing YPG — but they were 2-2 without him while scoring about 20 PPG and averaging just 317 total YPG due to getting 40 fewer YPG in the air. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has quarterback Justin Herbert stuck in a short passing game where his average intended air yards per attempt is just 6.7 yards, ranking the third-lowest amongst starting quarterbacks. In games without Williams, Herbert’s average depth of target drops from 6.7 yards to 5.8 yards — making this offensive attack easier to defend.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t like the vibes with this Chargers team with Staley leading the way — and that dynamic is only made worse after contradicting the logic of not playing starters in the preseason by asking his starters to play last week. Now Williams is injured, the team is traveling east, and Sean Payton is lurking to take over this group. Los Angeles only beat one of the six teams on their schedule that made the playoffs — and that was the 7th-seed Miami Dolphins. Jacksonville has a 3-3 record against playoff teams— and they are in a much better position with a Super Bowl-winning head coach Doug Pederson steering the ship. Los Angeles will have the extra motivation to avenge their 38-10 loss at home to the Jaguars on September 25th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss by 21 or more points. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Jacksonville Jaguars (144) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (460) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (459). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 41-17 victory against Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (8-8) has won four of five and seven of their last nine after their 41-10 win against Chicago as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Green Bay has finally gotten their act together after hitting rock bottom with a 4-8 record going into December. Getting healthy has helped. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers finally embracing their running game has made a big difference as well. The Packers have run the ball at least 32 times in three of their last four games while generating at least 138 rushing yards behind Aaron Jones and A.J. Jones in the backfield. But perhaps the biggest tactical change Green Bay has embraced has been on the other side of the ball. The Packers are blitzing less — going from a 42% blitz rate in their first 15 games to just a 10% blitz rate in their last three. With the extra available pass defenders, Green Bay is playing multiple coverage schemes including more Cover-6 or two high safety looks. After ranking second-to-last in the league by allowing their opponents to complete 59.3% of their passes, their opponent completion percentage has dropped to 52.6% in their last three games, ranking 5th in the NFL. The Packers have picked off seven passes in their last three games with just one dropped which is a significant improvement over ten interceptions in their first 13 games where they dropped six potential interceptions. In these last three games, Green Bay ranks 3rd in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders. The Packers should build off their momentum now as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win against an NFC North foe — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games at home after beating a divisional rival by 21 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. They have covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in their last four games. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning four games in a row. Forcing more turnovers has played a big role in their recent success. The Packers have enjoyed a +3 or better turnover margin in two straight and three of their last four games. They have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after having a +3 or better turnover margin in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after posting a +3 or better turnover margin in two straight games. Back at home at Lambeau Field, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against NFC rivals. Detroit may be due for a letdown since they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after beating an NFC North rival by 21 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after winning four of their last five games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They gained 504 yards against the Bears while averaging 7.41 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after generating 6.5 or more YPP. And while they held Chicago to just 230 total yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. The weather is expected to be in the low-20s tonight in Green Bay — which raises the issue of how Jared Goff and his small hands will perform under these conditions. At home under the dome, Goff has posted a 109.3 Passer Rating while completing 65.8% of his passes with 23 touchdown passes and just three interceptions, a 7.7 Yards-Per-Attempt average, and 247.2 passing YPG. But in his seven starts on the road, Goff has an 87.6 Passer Rating while completing 63.7% of his passes with only six touchdown passes and four interceptions with a 7.4 YPA and only 174.2 passing YPG. It’s an issue. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 road games this season with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay will be looking to avenge a 15-9 upset loss in Detroit to the Lions as a 4-point underdog on November 6th. The Lions rank 5th in the NFL in Passing DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders — but it will be difficult for Goff to replicate those numbers in these cold conditions. The Packers rank 3rd in the NFL in Rushing DVOA which will not be impacted by the cold weather — and they will be running against a Lions defense that ranks 27th in Opponent Rushing DVOA Allowed. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 9 points. 25* NFC North Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (460) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (459). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (455) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (456). THE SITUATION: New York (7-9) lost their fifth straight game after their 23-6 loss at Seattle as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (8-8) has lost five games in a row as well after their 23-21 loss at New England as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has played themselves out of the playoff race — and their offense has been anemic by scoring just nine combined points in their last two games. But I expect second-year head coach Robert Saleh to rally his troops in the role of the spoiler against a reeling Dolphins team that still clings to postseason hopes. The Jets have suffered three-straight upset losses — so turning the tables this week would give them some measure of satisfaction. Quarterback Mike White is out for this game with a rib injury — but I consider that a blessing in disguise since that allows for the veteran Joe Flacco to play under center this afternoon. Flacco may not be the quarterback of the future — but he is a savvy veteran with a Super Bowl championship on his resume. In limited time this season, he has thrown for 902 yards with five touchdowns and just three interceptions.  White thew two interceptions last week in the loss to the Seahawks. Flacco will be using this game as an audition to serve as a backup next season — hopefully, for him, a playoff contender. New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 9 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 6 points in their last game. Flacco will not have any druthers playing in a hostile environment — and the Jets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road. New York has also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 58 road games with the Total set in the 35.5-38 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 road games this season with the Total set in the 35.5-38 point range. Furthermore, the decision to sign Mike Glennon as backup quarterback signals that Teddy Bridgewater will probably not be available — and that means rookie Skyler Thompson gets the start under center. The 6th round pick out of Kansas State is completing only 54% of his 74 passes this season. He has thrown only one touchdown pass while tossing three interceptions — and his low 5.2 yards-per-attempt mark is concerning given the weapons and speed the Dolphins have on offense. It looks like starting left tackle Teron Armstead will not play with the foot injury that has him doubtful. This Jets' defense remains quite good — they hold their home hosts to just 308.3 total Yards-Per-Game which results in just 18.6 Points-Per-Game. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow loss by three points or less. Additionally, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing three games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Miami needs to win this game and then hope New England loses to Buffalo to make the playoffs — but there are rumors that the entire coaching staff will be fired if they do not make the playoffs. I think rookie head coach Mike McDaniel is a bit overrated because I don’t think the inventive play-calling he picked up from Kyle Shanahan necessarily qualifies him for the Hall of Fame quite yet. McDaniel has had some bumps this season — mostly with game management but also with the Tua Tagovailoa situation. Overall, I think he is doing fine and deserves another year — but the team’s owner dreams of Sean Payton or Jim Harbaugh coaching his team. Needless to say, I don’t like the vibes, once again, within this organization. 25* AFC East Underdog of the Year with the New York Jets (455) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (457) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (458). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-9) has lost six games in a row after their 27-13 loss to Dallas as a 14-point underdog last Thursday, December 29th. Jacksonville (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 31-3 win at Houston as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel rested most of his starters last week — but now he gets back running back Derrick Henry along with defensive stalwarts like Denico Autry and Jeffery Simmons for this showdown that will determine the AFC South title. Despite the six-game losing streak, don’t underestimate Vrabel’s ability to manage this game to impose his will of this being a grind-it-out slugfest. Tennessee ranks 2nd in the league in Run Defense using the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They have not given up more than 87 rushing yards in five straight games. The Titans have played three straight Unders under Vrabel — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. Tennessee is also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home. They go back on the road where they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games. Vrabel will keep Joshua Dobbs under center this week after he completed 20 of 39 passes for 232 yards against the Cowboys last week. While he only ran the ball three times for 12 yards, look for the former Tennessee Volunteers quarterback to be used much more in designed runs in this contest. Jacksonville followed up their 19-3 victory on the road against the New York Jets with their four-touchdown victory against the Texans last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after winning two straight games by 14 or more points. The Jaguars have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning their previous game by 28 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than nine points in two straight games. Second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence appears to have taken the next step in his development in the second half of this season — but he has been helped by an effective running game that will probably struggle to get going against an at full-strength Titans defensive front. This will be Lawrence’s biggest game in his NFL career. Jacksonville returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games as a favorite of up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: While commissioner Roger Goodell talks about “competitive equity” to defend the owners’ decision yesterday to change the written rules regarding playoff procedures to potentially set up neutral field games in the AFC playoffs, the league simultaneously shafted the Jaguars in this contest by requiring them to play on a short week against a Titans team that had extra days off after playing on a Thursday. Frankly, this game should be the Sunday night game to offer Jacksonville a normal week of rest and preparation. Tennessee has a huge situational edge that Vrabel was able to magnify by resting his key starters. As it is, the Titans have won five of the last six meetings between these two teams. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 8 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Jaguars in Jacksonville. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with Tennessee Titans (457) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (107) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (108). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-8) has won two straight games — as well as four of their last five — after their 13-10 win against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Baltimore (10-5) has won three of their last four — and seven of their last nine — after their 17-9 victory against Atlanta as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh is playing good football as of late — and it starts with their defense. They have held their last three opponents to 239.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has translated into only 14.0 Points-Per-Game. They are outscoring their opponents by +3.0 PPG and outgaining them by +95.0 net YPG. Kenny Pickett returned at quarterback last week and completed 26 of 39 passes for 244 yards. He did throw a touchdown along with an interception — but that pick was his first one in five starts. He is completing 65.2% of his passes in his rookie season. The Steelers outgained the Raiders last week by +149 while holding them to just 201 total yards. Las Vegas only gained 58 rushing yards last week — and Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. And while the Steelers have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road as an underdog getting up to three points. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 26 games in January under head coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 16-7-3 ATS. Baltimore is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a point-spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after winning three of their last four games. Furthermore, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens have held their last four opponents to 14 points or less — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. But Baltimore has not scored more than 17 points in those four contests — they are averaging just 11.5 PPG during that span. If the Ravens’ offense was limited under Lamar Jackson this season without a legitimate number-one wide receiver after trading away Hollywood Brown in the offseason, then things have been even worse with Tyler Huntley under center for the injured Jackson (who has not yet been cleared to play). Huntley completed only nine of his 17 passes last week for just 115 yards. He added 26 yards on the ground — but he is not nearly the same threat with his legs as Jackson. Huntley has only one touchdown passes in his four games this season — and he is averaging just 138 passing YPG and 5.8 yards per attempt. He is getting sacked once in every 15 dropbacks. Baltimore stays at home where they are getting outgained in yardage despite their 5-2 record. They are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games when favored by seven points or less. The Ravens have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow AFC North opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers are looking to avenge a 16-14 upset loss at home to Baltimore as a 4.5-point underdog on December 11th — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* AFC North Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (107) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-8) has lost five games in a row after their 19-14 upset loss to Houston as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Dallas (11-4) has won five of their last six games after their 40-34 win against Philadelphia as a 4-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: I had been planning a 25* play on the Titans earlier in the week given the initial circumstances. But given all the players that Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel is resting — and his decision earlier today (that I suspected might be happening) that he is resting rookie quarterback Malik Willis for Joshua Dobbs (picked up off the Detroit Lions practice squad last week) — then I simply cannot invest 25* money into this side play. Now Dallas is going to rest players eventually as well — so I am investing 10* money into the Titans as a near 14-point dog out of mostly principle. The Cowboys know that they have this game in hand against the Tennessee backups — and Dallas has been sluggish as a double-digit favorite. They only beat the New York Giants by a 28-20 score as a 10-point favorite in November. They beat Houston by a 23-17 score as a 17-point favorite on December 11th. Even in their 54-19 victory at home against Indianapolis to begin the month was a close game with them taking a 21-19 lead into the fourth quarter before turnovers turned the momentum of that game. Dallas is prone to letdowns as well — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 30 games on the road in the last two weeks of the season, they have failed to cover the point spread 21 times. What can I say that is positive about Tennessee, right now? Well … it takes a lot to not cover a point spread in the 13-point range. Dobbs is a journeyman who played his college ball at Tennessee — but he has mobility and will have the green light to generate yards with his legs (and he is very motivated since this is his audition to the entire league tonight). Rookie running back Hassan Haskins is good after leading Michigan to the College Football Playoff Semifinals last year. The Cowboys can be run on — they have allowed at least 106 rushing yards in three of their last four games. Even worse, three of their last eight opponents have gained 192 rushing yards against them. Even with the Titans' injuries on their offensive line last week against the Texans, they still got 184 rushing yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last game. And while Tennessee has only scored 28 combined points in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games at home after not scoring more than 14 points in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have clinched the top wildcard spot in the NFC playoff race but they are two games behind Philadelphia in the NFC East race — so they probably cannot improve their playoff positioning. In other words, Dallas is going to rest their players once this game is in hand. At that point, I just the value in all these points with the home underdog is too much to pass up. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on a Thursday. 10* NFL Dallas-Tennessee Amazon Prime Special with the Tennessee Titans (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (481). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-9-1) has lost four straight games — and seven of their last eight contests — after their 39-36 loss in overtime at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Los Angeles (8-6) has two straight games — and three of their last four — after their 17-14 win against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Watching Tom Brady last night was excruciating — and I had long concluded that these rumors that he is going to go play for San Francisco or Las Vegas next year as a joke since he is a 45-year old QB with diminishing skills (but the Raiders may still decide to bring him here on as an attraction on the strip). And Tennessee was brutal for us on Saturday. But yet, here we go with the darn Indianapolis Colts tonight (in a situation I have been thinking about for weeks). I know interim head coach Jeff Saturday is a joke. But allow me to offer the gentle reminder that we are betting numbers rather than teams. We have Monday Night Football home dog getting more than a field goal coming off the biggest blown lead in NFL history after going into halftime with a 33-0 lead against the Vikings — and, oh, it’s against a Brandon Staley-coached team. And, by the way, Nick Foles may be an upgrade at quarterback for Indianapolis because he can at least throw the football down the field still (as opposed to Matt Ryan). Success in sports gambling requires being willing to invest in bad teams (with the point spread, of course). In the NFL right now, it is pretty much all bad teams, in one way or another. If one wants to only invest in "good" NFL teams, well, then that is a recipe for passing on the entire card. If you need to hold your nose and look away, I don’t blame you. The Rams played great yesterday after being awful for us on Monday. These bad teams are also fickle. Irrespective of Jeff Saturday still deluding himself into thinking he still has a chance to get another head coaching job, the Colts players are embarrassed. It was only two weeks ago when they got demolished by a 33-0 score in the fourth quarter alone against Dallas. This team has been a laughing stock on national television for two straight weeks — so we are talking about professional pride at this point. As it is, the Colts have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road. They did cover the point spread for the first time in their last three games against Minnesota — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home to Lucas Oil Stadium where they are outgaining their opponents in yardage. Indianapolis is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The defense has played well for long stretches before collapsing in the second half — but they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. The Indy defense ranks 11th in the NFL according to the Defensive DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders — and they improve to 10th in the league when using their weighted numbers that privilege recent results. Foles is making just his second start in over two years — but he held his own for Chicago last year by completing 24 of 35 passes for 250 yards while averaging 7.1 Yards-Per-Attempt in a 25-24 victory against Seattle which included him orchestrating a late fourth quarter drive. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in December. Los Angeles is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December. The inconsistent Chargers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Los Angeles is 4-3 on the road but still getting outgained in yardage. The defense ranks 22nd in the NFL in weighted Defensive DVOA. They rank 28th in Run Defense DVOA — and that unit is not getting any help from an offense that has passed the ball 51 times per game in their last four games. I can’t wait to watch Justin Herbert play for Sean Payton. In the meantime, he is struggling under offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. The Chargers are bottom-six in Early Down Success Rate and Early Down Efficiency which is then asking Herbert to bail them out too often on third-and-long. In their last three games, Los Angeles is scoring only 20.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Colts have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their 7 games this season getting 3.5 or more points including both of their games at home under those circumstances. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Indianapolis Colts (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (481). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (480). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (6-8) has lost two games in a row after their 34-23 loss to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Arizona (4-10) has lost four games in a row after their 24-15 loss at Denver as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has lost six of their last nine games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games. But the books still have them as a road favorite in the touchdown range. It may look easy for many to simply take the home underdog out of principle — but let’s not take the cheese. This Buccaneers team is going to continue to work hard with the playoffs — and an automatic home game in the first round by winning the NFC South — still in their control. Tampa Bay actually outgained the Bengals last week by 159 net yards. They gained 396 yards against the stout Cincinnati defense with Tom Brady completing 30 of 44 passes for 312 yards with two touchdown passes. It was the Buccaneers’ -3 net turnover margin that played a big role in their loss. Tampa Bay held the Bengals’ offense to just 237 total yards — and they are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after holding their last opponent to no more than 250 yards. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss at home — and they are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a double-digit loss at home. The deeper metrics indicate that the Buccaneers should be seeing better results than their win-loss record indicates. They are outgaining their opponents by +28.0 net Yards-Per-Game. They rank 9th in the league in DVOA Defense using the analytics at Football Outsiders with top-12 ranks against both the run and the pass. They have given up 28.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three games — but they held those three opponents to just 313.0 YPG. On the road, they are outgaining their opponents in yardage while holding their home hosts to 317.0 YPG which is resulting in only 18.3 PPG. Despite their recent losing streak, Tampa Bay has outgained their last three opponents by +43.0 net YPG. Injuries have hit this team hard this season — especially on offense with their offensive line and their wide receiving corps. But this makeshift offensive line is starting to play better at this point of the season — and Brady finally has all his weapons back in the receiving game. Running the football has been an issue — but they are now getting productivity from rookie Rachaad White has 291 rushing yards in the last five games on 69 carries. Here now comes this Cardinals team that ranks 29th in Defensive DVOA against the run — and they allow opposing rushers to average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Arizona is a dumpster fire of a hot mess — to mix some metaphors. General manager Steve Keim is on a leave of absence. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury let it slip this week that he wants out of the organization with broken relationships with Keim, the owner, and Kyler Murray (who is out for perhaps the next year with his torn ACL). The team is a M*A*S*H unit with a bevy of injuries on both sides of the football that has exposed an already aging roster. And with the concussion to Colt McCoy (who is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league), the Cardinals have to turn to Trace McSorley under center. The former Penn State quarterback is very limited in his skill set after being mostly a runner in college. He completed only 7 of 15 passes for 95 yards last week coming in after McCoy was knocked out of the game — and he threw two interceptions. In the four NFL games he has played, he has completed only 51.7% of his 29 career passes with three interceptions and no touchdowns. He averages only 5.7 yards-per-attempt. The Buccaneers will be able to put eight defenders in the box to stop the run while daring McSorley to beat them in the passing game. This is all very bad news for an offense that was only scoring 15.5 PPG in their last four games before having to turn to their third-string quarterback. To compound matters, Arizona is 1-6 at home where they are getting outscored by -7.3 PPG and outgained by -64.4 net YPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: To put it kindly, Kingsbury is not one of the best coaches in the NFL. It is telling that the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games at home in the second half of the season. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the second half of the season. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (473). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (6-8) has won three of their last four games after their 24-16 upset win at Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Las Vegas (6-8) has won four of their last five games after their 30-24 win against New England as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders needed one of biggest boneheaded plays in the history of the NFL to survive last week’s game at home against the Patriots — but the final nail to end their playoff hopes will probably be struck tonight. Las Vegas beat New England last week on Chandler Jones’ 48-yard fumble recovery after the Patriots’ Jacoby Meyers’ ill-advised lateral despite that game looking destined for overtime. The Raiders will not enjoy tonight’s weather in Pittsburgh with temperates in the single digits and the wind chill projected at -11. This team left Las Vegas weather that will be in the 50s here today — and, of course, they play their home games in the domed and air-conditioned Allegiant Stadium. Quarterback Derek Carr simply does not have much experience playing in cold weather in his career even going back to his college days at Fresno State. As it is, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game at home where both teams scored 24 or more points. They gave up 206 rushing yards to the Patriots while getting outrushed by 135 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after getting outrushed by 75 or more yards. And while Las Vegas has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. Carr has only won one game as a starting quarterback on the road in a prime-time game in his career. Despite having Davante Adams as his top wide receiver this season, he has only thrown for over 300 yards once this year. Carr’s unwillingness to scramble also limits his effectiveness at this point in his career. In his last seven games, he has run the ball only six times for 21 yards despite still being pretty adept with his feet. He has not rushed for a red zone touchdown in two years — making it easier for the opposing defense since he represents virtually zero threat to take off with the ball. The Raiders have turned the ball over seven times in their last four games — and Carr is responsible for six interceptions during that stretch. And then there is the Raiders' defense which is the only team in the league this season to allow opposing quarterbacks to register a Passer Rating of over 100. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Raiders have also failed to cover the points spread in 12 of their last 15 games against teams with a losing record. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. With T.J. Watt healthy and back on the field, the Steelers are playing a stout defense that has held their last four opponents to just 16.3 Points-Per-Game and 278.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Pittsburgh outgained the Panthers last week by +116 net yards while holding them to just 209 total yards. They ran the ball 42 times for 156 yards which helped them control time of possession for 36:11 minutes — and Pittsburgh is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. Running back Damien Harris has rushed for five touchdowns in his last five games. And after Mitchell Trubisky led them to victory last week, the team gets back Kenny Pickett under center tonight who has won four of his last five starts when able to complete the game. The rookie is doing a great job of managing games — he has not thrown an interception in five straight games and 129 straight throws. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: I was taking Pittsburgh in this game even before the sad news regarding the death of Steelers’ legend Franco Harris. The NFL had already planned a big celebration recognizing the 50th anniversary of Harris’ “immaculate reception” touchdown catch against the Raiders — and Pittsburgh is inducting Harris into their Hall of Fame tonight. Now emotions will be heavy after Harris died in his sleep Wednesday night (after a day full of interviews plugging tonight’s festivities). Teams respond to moments like this. When Walter Payton died in 1999, the Chicago Bears traveled to Green Bay and upset the Packers by a 14-13 score despite being a 9-point underdog and having not won at Lambeau Field since 1993. With so many former players in attendance tonight, head coach Mike Tomlin will impart the value this organization puts on tradition — and it will be an energized crowd to get one for Franco. 25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (464) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (463). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-7) has lost four games in a row after their 17-14 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Houston (1-12-1) has lost nine games in a row after their 30-24 loss in overtime against Kansas City as a 14.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS MINUS THE POINTS: Despite the recent slide, Tennessee can still retain a one-game lead in the AFC South race with a victory this afternoon. The Titans will have to accomplish this feat without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill who is out perhaps the season with an ankle injury — so it will be rookie Malik Willis under center. Regardless, this is going to be the Derrick Henry show today. The bell-cow running back loves playing against the Texans. In his last four games against Houston, Henry has run the ball 120 times for 892 rushing yards — that is an average of 220 rushing Yards-Per-Game on 30 carries per contest. He is averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Carry in those last four games -- and he has scored nine touchdowns in those contests. He should feast once again against a Texans-run defense that ranks second-to-last in the NFL in DVOA Run Defense using the analytics at Football Outsiders. Houston allows 148 rushing YPG on 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road. And while the Titans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Tennessee returns home where they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Titans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow AFC South rivals. Houston has played Dallas and Kansas City to close games in the last two weeks — but they are 8-18-2 ATS in their last 28 games after a point spread win. The Texans took the Chiefs to overtime last week despite surrendering 502 total yards and getting outgained by -283 net yards. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. The Texans are splitting time at quarterback between Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel — but they combined to pass for only 125 yards last week. Houston only generated 219 total yards against Kansas City — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after failing to gain more than 250 yards in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. Houston is getting outgained by -107.5 net YPG this season. On the road, they are getting outscored by -6.8 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog of seven points or less. In their last three games, they are getting outscored by -7.7 PPG and getting outgained by -127 net YPG. The Texans are riddled with injuries — headlined by rookie running back Dameon Pierce and wide receiver Nico Collins being out for this game. Houston will struggle to run the ball against this Titans defense led by Jeffery Simmons which is the top-rated against the run according to the DVOA metrics. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against AFC rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans will be looking to avenge a 17-10 loss at home to the Titans on October 30th in a game that Henry rushed for 219 yards with two touchdowns. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when motivated with revenge. Furthermore, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Tennessee has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC South Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (464) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (463). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Jets (452) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (451). THE SITUATION: New York (7-7) has lost three games in a row after their 20-17 upset loss against Detroit as a 2-point favorite last Sunday. Jacksonville (6-8) has won two straight and three of their last four after their 40-38 upset win in overtime against Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Jaguars have registered two straight upset victories after pulling the upset on the road in Tennessee against the Titans the previous week. But Jacksonville is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after covering the point spread in two straight games. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has received plenty of accolades this week after engineering that upset win against the Cowboys. He is completing 70% of his lasses since Week Nine after completing 27 of 42 passes for 318 yards and four touchdowns against the Dallas defense. But Jacksonville is 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 games after passing for 250 or more yards in their last contest. And while the Jaguars have leaned heavily on Lawrence by asking him to throw 42 passes in two straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after attempting 40 or more passes in two straight games. The lack of a reliable rushing game will hurt Jacksonville tonight. While they rank 6th in the NFL in Passing DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders, they fall to 17th in Rushing DVOA. Making matters worse is the season-ending injury to starting left tackle, Cam Robinson. To compound matters, the weather tonight will hurt the ability of this team to execute in the passing game. The weather will be in the low-40s which makes it harder on receivers (especially when used to Florida weather) to hold on to the football. Even worse, the winds will start in the 15 miles per hour range with gusts adding perhaps another 15-20 MPH — and that will be the challenge for Lawrence who does not have experience in these conditions. Lawrence is dealing with a toe injury that the cold weather may exacerbate. The play of the Jaguars’ defense is a concern as well. They allowed 397 total yards last week with 154 of those yards coming on the ground. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game — and they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 350 or more total yards. The Jaguars rank 28th in Defensive DVOA — and they have allowed their last three opponents to score 32.0 PPG and generate 399.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Jacksonville will now be without two of their best defensive players with linebacker Travon Walker (the top pick in the NFL draft) and defensive end Foley Fatukasi out for tonight’s game. Now the Jags play their third game on the road in their last four games on the road and on a short week under bad conditions for a Florida team. They are just 2-6 on the road while getting outgained by 55.9 net YPG. Jacksonville is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. New York has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. Zach Wilson will be under center again for this game — and while I am nowhere close to being sold on this guy, he did play well against the Lions while looking relaxed on the sidelines despite getting demoted a few weeks ago for Mike White who is now out with his broken ribs. Wilson completed 18 of 35 passes for 317 yards with two touchdown passes and only one interception — and the Jets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for 250 or more yards in their last game. Given the conditions tonight, head coach Robert Saleh will not let offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur ask much of Wilson in the passing game. The Jets will lean on their outstanding defense tonight which ranks 3rd in the NFL in weighted DVOA that prioritizes the more recent results. New York also gets their stud defensive tackle Quinnen Williams back after he did not play last week. The Lions gained 359 total yards last week — but the Jets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. The Jets only ran for 50 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after not rushing for more than 50 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow AFC foes. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the New York Jets (452) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (531) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (532). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-9) snapped their six-game losing streak with their 17-16 upset win at home against Las Vegas as a 6-point underdog on December 8th. Green Bay (5-8) ended their two-game losing streak with their 28-19 victory at Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite on December 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: The “handicapper” technical play is probably with Green Bay tonight — but I am relenting to my skepticism of that perspective for this one. Are the bookies telling us to take Green Bay with what I consider an overly high spread — or are the oddsmakers simply reacting to an overvalued Packers team by the market? I think it’s the latter. Green Bay has won only twice by more than a field goal this season — and both victories came against the Bears. While they are technically still alive in the NFC wildcard race, they would need a complete collapse from several teams ahead of them in the standings while winning out their final four games. Call me skeptical that this situation inspires Aaron Rodgers who has been in “don’t blame me” mode since training camp started. Even in their victory against Chicago two weeks ago, the Packers got outgained by -52 net yards after allowing the meager Bears offense to generate 409 total yards. It was a +3 net turnover margin that helped them win that game. With injuries to left tackle David Bakhtiari and linebacker Rashon Gary, this team is missing two of their best players moving forward. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Green Bay has allowed 27 or more points in three of their last four games and six of their last nine. In their last three contests, they are surrendering 439.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in their opponents scoring 28.7 Points-Per-Game. The Packers return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games this season. While the Packers got the benefit of the bye, I am not sure how helpful that is this late in the season for a Super Bowl contender that is now likely out of the playoffs. Los Angeles has extra time to rest and prepare as well coming off the Thursday game last week. Baker Mayfield gets the start at quarterback after orchestrating the Hollywood-ending comeback victory against the Raiders. He should have a much better feel for Sean McVay’s offense now. This has been a lost season for the defending champions — and, for the record, I thought they were the most vulnerable reigning champion to suffer a hangover from a Super Bowl win in at least 20 years. But now I think the acquisition of Mayfield brings some life and energy to this team who can now revel in the role of the spoiler on national television. I’m not the biggest Mayfield fan — but it is hard to deny that he plays better in the tole of the feisty underdog. He also demonstrated plenty of heart and toughness playing through several injuries for Cleveland last year. He’s healthy now — and finally playing for a non-dysfunctional NFL organization for the first time in his career. McVay still wants to center his play-calling on the run game — and he should have success against this Packers run defense that ranks last in the league missing the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. Cam Akers is showing signs of life with 200 rushing yards in the last four weeks with three touchdowns.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games played in December. Look for them to keep this game close with McVay embracing the rare opportunity to play the spoiler role. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (531) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (303) plus the points versus the Washington Commanders (304). THE SITUATION: New York (7-5-1) is winless in their last four games after their 48-22 loss to Philadelphia as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Washington (7-5-1) is unbeaten in their last four games after their 20-20 tie with the Giants as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago on December 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: After getting embarrassed last win in Philadelphia, New York should respond with a strong effort against an opponent they are very familiar with after just playing them two weeks ago. The Giants have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by 14 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. New York got torched for 253 rushing yards by Philadelphia — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game. The Giants go back on the road where they are only allowing 22.8 Points-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road. Washington is just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point-spread victory. They have the benefit of the bye for this rematch — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with an extra week of rest and preparation. They get the Giants at home this time — but they are only scoring 18.7 PPG and averaging 326.0 total YPG. The Commanders are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in December — and they are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games against NFC East rivals. The Washington defense is outstanding — but they are vulnerable against effective passing attacks as they rank just 14th against the pass using the DVOA Defensive Ratings at Football Outsiders. The Giants rank 10th in Offensive DVOA — and they are 10th in the league in Passing DVOA despite the conventional wisdom surrounding quarterback Daniel Jones.

FINAL TAKE: New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and Washington is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with New York Giants (303) plus the points versus the Washington Commanders (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (319) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (320). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (5-8) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 16-14 upset loss against Baltimore as a 1.5-point favorite last Sunday. Carolina (5-8) has won two straight and three of their last four games after a 30-24 upset win in Seattle as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh endured a -2 net turnover last week against their arch-rivals — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. And while they only gained 65 yards on the ground against the stout Ravens run defense, they are then 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Steelers have still rushed for 471 yards in their last three games for a robust 157 rushing Yards-Per-Game average. Pittsburgh has held six of their last eight opponents to 18 or fewer points. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. With rookie Kenny Pickett out for this game, head coach Mike Tomlin turns back to Mitchell Trubisky under center — and the Steelers probably still have the edge at quarterback against the Panthers’ Sam Darnold. He is completing only 58% of his passes and averaging 148 passing Yards-Per-Game since taking over as the starter. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Now the Panthers return home where they are just 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Carolina has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home when favored. Furthermore, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record — and they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers (319) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (310) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (309). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-3) has won four games in a row after their 20-12 victory against the New York Jets as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.  Miami (8-5) has lost two games in a row after their 23-17 upset loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: How the Dolphins will handle the weather has received plenty of attention in the media this week. As of the weather reports Friday night, the low temperature expected Saturday night in Buffalo is 26 degrees with modest winds from 5-10 miles per hour. And while up to 24 inches of snow is expected, most of that should have already taken place by tomorrow night. There may be some flurries — but Tua Tagovailoa will probably not be playing on snow, so his experience with the Alabama winters will offer him some familiarity. Yes, I am worried about how Tagovailoa and his team will handle the cold weather. In his two previous starts in December and January, Tagovailoa completed only 55.2% of his passes while averaging just 5.9 yards-per-attempt and posting a loss Passer Rating of 58.8. Miami got outscored by 61 combined points in those two games. But what I am more concerned about with this Dolphins team is the travel grind they have been on that has led to this chilly environment as their final destination for a three-game road trip. Miami has spent the last two weeks in California playing in San Francisco and Los Angeles. That is a challenging road trip for any NFL team — but it is probably even worse for a southern team who felt the need to use heaters on the sidelines to adjust to the 50-degree weather in LA last week. Even more concerning is the defensive adjustment that the 49ers made against the Mike McDaniel passing attack. While most teams have played zone coverages to account for the speed of Miami wide receivers Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Niners played man-to-man coverage on these wideouts while pressuring them on the line of scrimmage and pushing them off their quick slant passing routes that Tagovailoa has feasted on this season. Tagovailoa thrives in this style of play given his ultra-quick release and sharp accuracy — but he gets into trouble if he has to turn to his second or third options. The Chargers copied this approach last week — and it is something the Bills are most likely going to continue. In his last two games, Tagovailoa has completed only 28 of 61 passes for a 45.9% completed percentage with just 440 passing yards, a lower 7.2 YPA average, and five sacks. Frankly, the Dolphins might be finally getting exposed as a solid but unspectacular team. They are only outscoring their opponents by +0.3 PPG and outgaining them by +17.0 net YPG. They have +3 net close wins decided by one scoring possession. Their five-game winning streak was all against teams currently with losing records with a combined 20-46-1 mark. When Detroit is the team with the best record during a five-game hot streak, perhaps you are a beneficiary of a favorable schedule? On the road, Miami is getting outscored by -6.5 PPG while allowing 31.4 PPG and 387.1 YPG.  The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. Injuries have hit this team hard in the defensive secondary. Safety Brandon Jones and cornerback Nik Needham are both out the season while cornerback Byron Jones has been on the PUP list since July. Now safety Eric Rowe and cornerback Elijah Campbell are out for this game with injuries challenging the team’s depth — and that is a bad way to face Josh Allen. Buffalo is 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games after a point-spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. The Bills miss Von Miller who is out the season with a torn ACL — but this team stocked up with defensive linemen in the offseason providing them the depth to compensate for injuries. The Buffalo defense is allowing only 14.4 PPG and 292.3 YPG in their last three games — and they have only one touchdown in each of their last two games. The Bills are outscoring their opponents at home by +16.8 PPG due to an explosive offense that scores 31.2 PPG and generates 410.6 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45-point range. This team will embrace the cold weather — and Allen’s experience in chilly weather from his collegiate experience at Wyoming is a better preparation for what he will face than Tagovailoa’s winter experiences in Alabama. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: Miami is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games in Buffalo against the Bills. The Bills will be motivated to avenge their 21-19 loss in the Miami heat on September 25th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss by 7 points or less. 25* AFC East Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (310) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (302) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (301). THE SITUATION: Seattle (7-6) has lost three of their last four contests after their 30-24 upset loss to Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (9-4) has won six games in a row after their 35-7 victory against Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle has been a disaster in stopping the run after allowing 209.5 rushing YPG in their last four games. But they expect to have Kenneth Walker back at running back after he missed last week which will help them control the clock after their defense was on the field for 39:16 minutes against the Panthers. The Seahawks' defense simply got gassed last week by staying on the field while Carolina racked up first down after first down. Seattle should step up their game tonight after failing to cover the point spread in four straight games. They have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games at home after getting upset in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to 22.5 Points-Per-Game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. And they are 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 games Thursday Night Football. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games on the road after a win by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games on the road after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road to play in a hostile environment for the first time since October 30th (their lone road game last month was in Mexico against Arizona). Brock Purdy has been a pleasant surprise for the team — but as the book gets written on him as he puts accumulates for game tape with the Niners, this will be his first NFL appearance away from the friendly confines of Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games when favored by up to three points. Purdy looks to get the start tonight despite his ribs and oblique injury — the rookie has a hard assignment on a short week and limited practice. Head coach Kyle Shanahan will likely have a run-heavy game plan tonight even without Elijah Mitchell who is back on the Injured List with an MCL injury. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel is out as well with an ankle and knee injury. This team could sure use Jeff Wilson who they traded to Miami after acquiring Christian McCaffrey. Remember when McCaffrey was only going to be just another weapon in this offense to not risk yet another injury? He looks to get a heavy workload tonight — and Seattle knows it. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on Thursday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE:  This is a rematch of the Niners' 27-7 victory at home on September 18th — and Seattle has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with same-season revenge. San Francisco is just 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games against the Seahawks — and they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in Seattle. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (302) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (127) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (128). THE SITUATION: New England (6-6) has lost two games in a row after their 24-10 loss to Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog back on December 1st. Arizona (4-8) has lost two straight — and four of their last five — after a 25-24 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog two weeks ago on November 27th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England comes off two straight losses — but they were against playoff teams, Minnesota and the Bills last week. Many observers are oh-so quick to criticize Bill Belichick since he has not had Super Bowl contenders since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay — but the sign of a great coach is that your teams are still playing at a .500 level and contending for playoff spots even without a franchise level quarterback. Winning half the games is the floor for Belichick (23-22 post-Brady) — and there are many highly regarded coaches in the league (Sean McVay, Kevin Stefanski, Matt LaFleur) who would love a .500 record right about now. Expect the Patriots to play well tonight as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games this season after a loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss at home. New England gained only 242 total yards while getting outgained by -113 net yards — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 28 games after not generating at least 250 yards in their last game.  And while they have failed to cover the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Now the Patriots go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The thirstiest and lowest-hanging fruit of an argument to make is to criticize Belichick for appointing his former defensive coordinator (and disaster of a head coach in Detroit) Matt Patricia for being tabbed as the team’s offensive coordinator this season. The deeper analytics at Football Outsiders rank New England 25th in Offensive DVOA — ranking 26th in the run game and 22nd in the pass. But “offensive guru” Kliff Kingsbury with Kyler Murray at quarterback ranks 29th in the league in Offensive DVOA -- bottoming out at 27th in the run and 28th in the passing game. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game at home where both teams scored 24 or more points. Murray is regressing — and it starts with his struggles against pressure. He has been sacked 18 times in his last three starts (all losses) — he got sacked once for every 12 of his dropbacks. His Passer Rating of 12.8 when under pressure is in the NFL. Now here comes Matthew Judon with his 13 sacks this season and this Patriots defense that ranks 3rd in the league by sacking the quarterback in 9.01% of their dropbacks. But it is not just handling pressure where Murray is struggling since he signed his large contract extension — it is when he is not dinking and dunking. In passes of at least 10 air yards (which is still technically considered intermediate), he has completed only 49 of 108 passes for a 45.4% completion percentage with two touchdowns on those throws but six interceptions. Furthermore, the 8.4 yards per attempt he is averaging on those throws is the third worst in the NFL — only Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco have lower YPA averages. Murray has also lost sixteen of his last twenty starts at home. Arizona is a bad home where they are just 1-5 this season while getting outscored by -6.2 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -74.4 net Yards-Per-Game. The Carnivals have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home in the second half of the season. Furthermore, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Say what you want about Belichick — but the Special Teams remain above average and his defense is elite. New England ranks 3rd in the NFL in Defensive DVOA — and ranking 8th against the run and 4th against the pass. This formula has helped the Patriots cover the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games against teams with a losing record. 25* NFL Monday Night Special Feature with New England Patriots (127) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (120) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (119). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-20 loss at Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Miami (8-4) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 33-17 loss at San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins may have an 8-4 record — but they are only outscoring their opponents by +0.8 Points-Per-Game. Five of their eight victories were decided by one scoring possession. They are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 14 or more points. Miami only gained 308 total yards against the 49ers — and their mere eight rushing attempts provided them only 33 yards of rushing. While rookie head coach Mike McDaniel is lauded by many as an offensive genius for the passing plays he can draw up, his teams can get lulled into passing the ball too much and burning his tiring defense. The Dolphins were only on offense for 19:26 minutes against the Niners. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. Miami stayed out west this week for this second game on the road — and they allow their home hosts to score 32.8 Points-Per-Game while getting outscored by -6.6 net Points-Per-Game in their six road contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. Los Angeles’ four of six losses have been decided by one scoring possession. They have still covered the points spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Justin Herbert completed 28 of 47 passes for 335 passing yards in the losing effort against the Raiders — and now he gets Mike Williams back this week to join up with Keenan Allen after both wide receivers have missed multiple games this season. While I cannot wait for Herbert to operate in a better-conceived offense next season (most likely designed by Sean Payton), he has a great opportunity to find success tonight against this Dolphins’ pass defense that ranks 23rd in the NFL in Passing DVOA using the analytics at Football Outsiders. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for 250 or more yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: This is the battle of the Game Management Challenged Head Coaches — I shudder at the thought of what the supposed “The Analytics” (that assumes that every statistical moment is the same and that momentum does not exist — it is just “hindsight bias,” a convenient psychological conclusion by these quants to evade what would otherwise be a prima-facie indictment of all their 4th down probability numbers) will compel these coaches to do tonight. The Special Teams DVOA numbers rate Miami as having the worst Special Teams in the NFL — and the Chargers come in at a solid 12th in those rankings. Los Angeles has been an underdog 4 times this season — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of these contests. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (120) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (119). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (102) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (101). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-9) has lost six games in a row after their 27-23 loss to Seattle as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. Las Vegas (5-7) has won three in a row after their 27-20 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles is a mess at quarterback with Matthew Stafford out the season with a spinal injury and backup John Wolford questionable with a neck injury. The Rams signed Baker Mayfield two days ago — and it looks like there is a good chance he will play tonight. I waited until this afternoon waiting for the updated report on who will start at quarterback tonight — head coach Sean McVay will wait on that decision until Wolford goes through pre-game workouts to see how his neck responds. If Wolford cannot go, then McVay will turn to either Bryce Perkins or Mayfield who has been in their building for just two days. No matter who is under center tonight, Los Angeles will want to establish the run to slow this game down — and they might have gotten their best game of the season last week from embattled running back Cam Akers last week who scored two touchdowns while running for 60 yards. Frankly, I am not surprised at all about the fall of this Rams team this season — I considered them the most likely Super Bowl winner in (at least) the last twenty years to suffer from a championship hangover. Playing a living in Los Angeles after surviving several close scares in the postseason last year combined with their lack of depth — I was selling this team in August. But I expect some championship pride to show up for this team on national television tonight — and they really do not have much reason to tank since their first-round draft pick belongs to Detroit in the Stafford trade. Granted, defensive tackle Aaron Donald and wide receiver Cooper Kupp are also all for this game — but that is why the Rams are getting six or so points at home. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a divisional rival. And while they have allowed 26 or more points in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 25 points in four straight games. Las Vegas' three-game winning streak included upset wins at Seattle and Denver before they rallied from a 10-point second-quarter deficit to beat the Chargers last week. The Raiders have gained at least 404 yards in three straight games after generating that amount of yardage last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Las Vegas has averaged 462.3 YPG in those last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging 450 YPG in their last three games. But consistency has remained a problem for the Raiders under quarterback Derek Carr. Las Vegas gained 400 or more yards just once in their first nine games. Running back Josh Jacobs has rushed for 482 yards in those three contests — but he may not be able to maintain that level of effectiveness playing on a short week while being officially listed as questionable with a quad and calf injury. I do expect Jacobs to play — I just remain in doubt about how good he will be on three days of rest. The Raiders stay on the road for the third time in their last four games having scored just 21.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 308.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their seven contests away from home — and they are just 2-5 on the road. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 8 games on the road when favored. Furthermore, Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in December — and Los Angeles is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games in December. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (102) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (477). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (5-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week in a 23-17 upset loss at Cleveland as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (4-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 13-0 loss at San Francisco as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has disappointed this season — and their fundamental flaw on the offensive line this year was made even worse with the lower-leg injury to Tristan Wirfs. I appreciate the impact of this injury. But …  running the ball helps cover the weaknesses of a bad offensive line and the Buccaneers are starting to get nice contributions from rookie Rachaad White who has rushed for 169 yards in the last two games with a 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry average. A veteran quarterback with elite pocket presence helps with a bad offensive line as well — and here comes Tom Brady with the opportunity to still get his team into the postseason with a defense that remains outstanding two years removed from their Super Bowl victory in 2021. The Buccaneers return home after playing their last two games away from home in Germany and then Cleveland last week. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after an upset on the road as a favorite. The Buccaneers are holding their opponents to 18.5 Points-Per-Game and 315.2 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have held their last three opponents to 17.3 PPG and 285.3 total YPG. The DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders ranks Tampa Bay as the 7th best defense in the NFL. New Orleans only gained 260 yards last week in their shutout loss to the  Niners. It is dangerous to fade teams embarrassed by a shutout loss — but the Saints’ issues on offense go much deeper than just a bad day at the office. They are scoring just 12.3 PPG and averaging 256.3 total YPG in their last three games. Alvin Kamara seems to have lost a step — he is averaging only 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry in his last three games with only 163 rushing yards. He has added another 230 yards in the air in those three games — but the problem there is that he serves as a primary receiver for this team that lacks weapons at wideout. The offense misses a number-one option now that Michael Thomas is out the season. And then there are their problems at quarterback with Andy Dalton being given the nod over Jameis Winston since he is less turnover-prone. The Red Rifles’ frontline stats are solid this season — but it is fair to say he lacks juice. Let’s use one of our tools in MLB to break his numbers down further: home/road splits. In his six starts at home at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, Dalton has completed 68.5% of his passes averaging a 7.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with nine touchdown passes and two interceptions. But in his three starts on the road this season, he is completing 63.1% of his passes averaging 7.2 YPA with five touchdown passes and five interceptions. Dalton versus the Tampa Bay defense seems to be the critical matchup that gives the Buccaneers the edge — especially with Kamara faltering as of late. DVOA ranks the New Orleans offense 24th in the league — and their passing attack ranks 24th in the NFL. Not surprisingly, the Saints are bad on the road with a 1-5 record and scoring just 18.3 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: I had higher hopes for Dennis Allen as the head coach for the Saints this season — and he enters this month leading a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. I considered New Orleans’ revenge angle for this game and the sustained success they have had against Brady since he moved to Tampa Bay — but I still concluded the Bucs similarly handle them as they did on September 18th when they won 20-10 in New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (477). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (475) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-7-1) has lost two in a row and five of their last six contests after their 24-17 upset loss to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday. Dallas (8-3) has won two in a row and four of their last five games after their 28-20 win against the New York Giants as a 10.5-point favorite on Thanksgiving.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: I don’t think much of Jeff Saturday as an interim head coach — but the main benefit of his move from Jim Irsay’s drinking buddy to the leader of the 2022-23 team is that he had the leverage to install Matt Ryan back at quarterback. The Colts began the year as a .500 team — and they are still basically a .500 team. Despite their losing record, they are outgaining their opponents by +9.9 net Yards-Per-Game. The opportunity to take them as a double-digit underdog presents too much value to pass up. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. The Indy defense remains solid — they rank 5th in the NFL by allowing only 308.9 YPG and they rank in the top half of the league at 13th according to the Football Outsiders DVOA efficiency ratings. They have held four of their last six opponents to 20 points or less. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They did outgain the Giants last week by +130 net yards on the strength of generating 430 yards of offense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home after outgaining their previous opponent by +100 or more yards. And while the Cowboys have averaged 436.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after averaging 400 or more YPG in their last three contests.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Indianapolis Colts (475) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (471) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 25-24 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Las Vegas (4-7) pulled off their second-straight upset — both requiring overtime — in their 40-34 victory at Seattle as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Raiders are clinging to postseason hopes after losing seven of their first nine games this season in what has been a tumultuous first year under head coach Josh McDaniels. Surviving two straight overtimes is likely to be physically and emotionally draining after upsetting Denver on the road two weeks ago — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after pulling off two straight upsets. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road where they scored 31 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 35 or more points in their last contest. The Raiders gained 576 yards last week against the Seahawks after generating 407 yards against the Broncos two weeks ago — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 400 yards in two straight games. Derek Carr completed 25 of 36 passes for 295 yards with three touchdown passes but two interceptions in the win — but Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Carr struggles against the Rams with a 1-3 record in his last four starts — and he has been sacked 13 times in those games for a sack rate of one in every 9.6 dropbacks. Furthermore, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. Las Vegas has the worst defense in the NFL according to the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher including failing to cover the point spread in seven of those last ten circumstances. Additionally, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when favored including five of their last seven games when laying the points. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win on the road They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Chargers were outrushed in the game by -116 net yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after outrushing their last opponent by 100 or more yards. They did enjoy a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Justin Herbert was exquisite in that game by completing 35 of 47 passes for 274 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions despite still being without wide receiver Mike Williams. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road as an underdog. Furthermore, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against divisional rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders will have revenge on their minds after losing in LA to the Chargers on September 11th by a 24-19 score — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when attempting to avenge a loss and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games when avenging a loss by seven points or less. Los Angeles still remembers losing in Vegas to the Raiders on the last Sunday night of the regular season that cost them a trip to the playoffs last season — but they have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played in the Raiders’ home building in Oakland or on the Vegas strip. 25* AFC West Underdog of the Year with the Los Angeles Chargers (471) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (302) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (301). THE SITUATION: New England (6-5) had their three-game winning streak end in a 33-26 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday. Buffalo (8-3) has won six of their last eight games after their 28-25 victory at Detroit as a 10-point favorite on Thanksgiving.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England outgained the Vikings by +51 net yards but still lost on the road at Minnesota. The Patriots are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 38 of their last 51 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. New England’s defense is the real deal — they rank 2nd in the league in DVOA and first when weighting those defensive metrics to recent games. They hold their guests to just 15.2 PPG and 264.0 total YPG when playing at home. Additionally, in their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 13.0 PPG and 194.0 total YPG. The encouraging aspect of their loss last week was that Mac Jones played one of his best games of the season by completing 28 of 39 passes for 382 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Patriots gained 409 total yards in that game — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. New England returns home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against AFC opponents. Buffalo will be without Von Miller who is dealing with a knee injury. The Bills score 28.1 Points-Per-Game and 415.9 YPG — but those numbers drop to 24.7 PPG and 393.4 YPG when playing on the road.  

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and New England is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots (302) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (275) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (276). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (3-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 37-20 loss to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (4-6-1) has lost four of their last five games after a 17-16 loss to Philadelphia as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: When observing head coaches like Sean McVay endure a terrible season, it is a remarkable achievement for Mike Tomlin that his Steelers teams have not endured a losing record during his previous 15 seasons with the franchise. That accomplishment is at risk this year — but one thing we can rely on is that his teams will always play hard. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Steelers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing at least 30 points including covering the point spread in five of those last six situations. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after allowing 35 or more points. They are getting solid play from rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett who completed 25 of 42 passes for 265 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. He is not making many mistakes under center while demonstrating composure and a sense of control that transcends the box score. Running back Najee Harris is heating up as of late as he leads a Pittsburgh rushing attack that has averaged 154 rushing yards per game in their last three contests. Harris has run for 185 yards in the last two games. The Steelers have generated 343.3 total YPG in their last three games which is more than 30 yards above their season average. They have also held their last three opponents to 331.7 YPG which is more than 40 YPG below their season average. After playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road for the next two games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last two games at home. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss at home by three points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread after a loss at home where they covered the point spread as an underdog. This is a bad football team despite their on-face defensive numbers that include them ranking 5th in the NFL by allowing only 307.6 YPG. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders rank the Colts' defense as 30th in the league — those analytics measure efficiency to neutralize the slowing down of the clock by running the football which helps Indianapolis’ frontline defensive statistics. The Indy offense ranks 31st using the DVOA numbers including ranking 30th against the pass and 32nd in the run game despite having Jonathan Taylor at running back. The Steelers have a solid run defense that tanks 14th in the league according to DVOA. The Colts are scoring only 14.7 PPG and 273.3 YPG in their last three games. They have a high school head coach running the team in Jeff Saturday. While the team got an initial boost when the former center for Peyton Manning went from owner Jim Irsay’s drinking buddy to head coach in a win over Las Vegas, the honeymoon is over. Every coach in the room knows he will not be back with the team — so morale is a concern for this group moving forward. Saturday posted a 20-16 record coaching for Hebron Christian Academy in Georgia for three seasons.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (275) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (273) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (274). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (4-7) has lost six of their last seven games after their 27-17 upset loss to Tennessee as a 3-point favorite on November 17th. Philadelphia (9-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season by beating the Colts in Indianapolis by a 17-16 score as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Green Bay will get extra time to rest, heal, and prepare for this game after getting the Thursday night game last week. They have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after playing on a Thursday in their previous game. The Packers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss. I expect this team will get back to running the football tonight. After running the ball at least 25 times in three straight games, they only ran the ball 19 times for 56 yards against the Titans. Green Bay ranks 5th in the NFL by the DVOA ratings at Football Outsiders — and they will be running the ball against an Eagles defense that ranks 26th in the league in run defense according to those DVOA analytics. The Packers go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. After winning the turnover battle in their first eight games this season, Philadelphia has seen the Regression Gods appear by losing the turnover battle in each of their last two games. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Eagles' offense has taken a step back as of late as they are scoring just 22.3 PPG and 312.7 YPG in their last three games — -4.0 PPG and -57.3 YPG below their season average. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Philadelphia returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 45 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 meetings with the Eagles. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (273) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (259) minus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (260). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (6-4) has won four of their last five games after their 37-20 victory at Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (7-3) has won seven of their last eight games after their 27-17 upset win at Green Bay as a 3-point underdog on November 17th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINT(S): After an 0-2 start to the season, the reigning AFC champions are clicking now even with injuries to skill players on offense. Running back Joe Mixon is not expected to play again this afternoon — but Samaje Perine stepped up with 82 rushing yards and three touchdown receptions against the Steelers. Wide receiver Ja’Mar Chase is questionable but not expected to play as well — but Joe Burrow continues to roll with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd as reliable weapons in the passing game. They have scored 30.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. Burrow completed 24 of 39 passes for 355 yards with four touchdown passes last week — and Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point-spread victory. Additionally, while the Bengals surrendered 408 total yards against Pittsburgh, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Cincinnati’s no-name defense remains underrated under defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo — they are holding their opponents to just 326.7 YPG. The Bengals also thrive in the hidden yards department — they are the least penalized team in the NFL with only 318 penalty yards assessed against them in their ten games. They go on the road where they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games against AFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Tennessee may be due for a letdown after covering the point spread in eight straight games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after an upset victory by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after a double-digit upset victory as a road underdog. Ryan Tannehill completed 22 of 27 passes for 333 yards against the Packers — but they are 23-49-2 ATS in their last 74 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Titans are eking out low-scoring games despite getting outgained by -54.7 net YPG. At home, they are getting outgained by -28.5 net YPG. Five of their seven victories have been decided by one scoring possession. And while their bend but don’t break defense is allowing only 15.7 PPG in their last three games, they are surrendering 361.0 YPG in those games. Tennessee has the top run defense in the league using the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders — but they are just 13th against the pass using those metrics which is an ominous sign when facing Burrow. Tennessee is also dealing with a bevy of injuries still with defensive lineman Denico Autry out for this game and many other defensive starters listed as questionable.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee will want to avenge their 1816 loss at home to the Bengals in the playoffs last season — but this is still not a good matchup for them. Cincinnati averages 271 passing YPG — and the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after eight games into the season against teams who are averaging 260 or more passing YPG. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (259) minus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (110) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (109). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (8-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 40-3 loss at home to Dallas as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. New England (6-4) has won three in a row after a 10-3 win against the New York Jets as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: In the Report on Dallas last week for our NFL Game of the Month, I leaned heavily on the underwhelming analytics for Minnesota this season despite having only one loss at the time. After getting blown out by 37 points, the Vikings are now being outscored and outgained in yardage this season. But I expect a very strong effort from them tonight to get the bad taste out of their mouths from that game. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 45 of their last 66 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 home games after a loss by 21 or more points. And while they trailed at halftime by a 23-3 score, the Vikings have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games at home after not scoring more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Minnesota only gained 183 total yards in the game while having their offense on the field for just 22:36 minutes of that game — but they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last game. Quarterback Kirk Cousins completed only 12 of 23 passes for 105 yards before getting benched with the game out of hand. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a game where they did not gain at least 150 passing yards in their last game. Now we have a prime-time game with Cousins holding a career 10-18 record as the starter in prime-time games just like this. That said, I do note that Cousins completes 66% of his passes in prime-time with 50 touchdown passes and just 26 interceptions in those 28 prime-time games. The Vikings have a situational edge this week by getting to stay home on a short week — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. New England seemed destined for overtime against the Jets last week before returning a punt for an 84-yard touchdown late in the game to bypass Mac Jones attempt to lead the team on a game-winning drive. Cousins will not have to be great tonight to outduel the Jones-led Patriots’ offense. In their last three games, New England is scoring only 19.3 PPG and 262.7 Yards-Per-Game. The Patriots rank 26th in offense using the DVOA analytics by the Football Outsiders — and they are subpar in both the run and the pass by ranking 24th and 26th in those metrics. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last contest. New England’s defense is keeping them in games — they have allowed 87 combined passing yards in their last two games. But we need to keep in mind that the last two quarterbacks that the Patriots have faced have been Sam Ehlinger and Zach Wilson — and those are two players who have since been benched. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in two straight games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range. Even facing prime-time Cousins is a massive upgrade in talent than what Bill Belichick’s defense has faced in the last two weeks. Minnesota is completing 64% of their passes this season — and the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games against teams who complete at least 64% of their passes.

FINAL TAKE: The flip side of the middling Minnesota analytics is that their two losses this season have come against opponents who entered the week with a combined 16-4 record. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games against teams winning at least 75% of their games. The Patriots are dealing with some injuries on this short week headlined by star left tackle Isaiah Wynn being out for this game. 25* NFL NBC-TV Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (110) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (475) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (476). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-4) has won two games in a row after their 22-16 win against the Los Angeles Chargers as an 8.5-point favorite last Sunday. Arizona (4-6) had lost four of five games before their 27-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, Mexico.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The 49ers held the Chargers to just 238 yards in the victory last week — and that came after holding the Rams to 223 total yards. San Francisco leads the NFL by allowing just 280.6 total Yards-Per-Game. They hold their opponents to just 16.6 first downs per game — also the best mark in the league. The stout San Francisco defense starts with their ability to stop the run. The Niners hold their opponents to 3.43 Yards-Per-Carry and 82.7 rushing YPG — the lowest marks in the league. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. They rushed for 157 yards en route to the 387 total yards they generated against the Chargers. San Francisco has then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against NFC West opponents. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. While head coach Kliff Kingsbury was able to take care of business against the banged-up Rams, his team is absolutely riddled with injuries. Colt McCoy gets the start under center with Kyler Murray dealing with a hamstring. I think McCoy is solid — but he lacks Murray’s play-making and scrambling abilities. While he completed 26 of 37 passes last week in the win against the Rams, Arizona only gained 298 total yards in the game. Wide receiver Marquise Brown is still on Injured Reserve and tight end suffered a season-ending knee injury. The offensive line is also a mess with four protected starters from preseason camp not playing tonight. Left tackle D.J. Humphries and center Rodney Hudson have been declared out — and left guard Justin Pugh and right guard Will Hernandez have missed most of the season with injuries. The Cardinals' defense remains solid with stars line J.J. Watt and Budda Baker anchoring the unit — but they are missing some key pieces as well. Cornerback Byron Murphy is out with a hamstring and nose tackle Rashard Lawrence is on Injured Reserve with a shoulder. This is an 8-13 team since they opened 7-0 last year. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against NFC West rivals.

FINAL TAKE:  The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on Monday Night Football — and San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 straight games on Monday nights. I don’t love laying more than a touchdown to a divisional underdog — but the circumstances warrant it. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (475) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (469) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (470). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (7-2) has won five of their last six games after a 27-17 win against Jacksonville as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-4) has lost two of their last three games after a 22-16 loss at San Francisco as an 8.5-point underdog last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City generated 486 total yards last week in their double-digit win against the Jaguars. They are scoring 30.3 Points-Per-Game and generating 504.7 Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests despite some injuries in their wide receiver corps. Patrick Mahomes will be without JuJu Smith-Shuster and Mecole Hardman due to injuries — but Marquez Valdes-Scantling returns to the field tonight and they acquired Kadarius Toney from the Giants at the trade deadline who should get plenty of reps tonight. And, of course, there is nothing wrong with Travis Kelce. Mahomes has seamlessly led the transition of this offense to one that is more balanced since they traded away Tyreek Hill in the offseason. Led by Isiah Pacheco’s 82 yards on 16 carries, the Chiefs churned out 155 rushing yards last week. The rookie from Rutgers has taken over the starting tailback job and he is poised for a big game against this Chargers defense that allows 5.3 Yards-Per-Carry and has surrendered 191 rushing YPG in their last three games. The Chiefs running the football should make their offense even more dynamic since it will open up more opportunities in the passing game. I do worry about this KC offense when they become too pass-reliant. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 36.5 PPG — and they are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games against teams with at least a 50% winning percentage at home. Los Angeles only gained 238 yards last week in their loss to the 49ers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Quarterback Justin Herbert does hope to get his top two wide receivers back tonight after Mike Williams and Keenan Allen have practiced this week after missing multiple games apiece to injury. But much of their problems on offense have been due to the defense being on the field too long given that porous run defense. Herbert and the Chargers’ offense was only on the field for 23:01 minutes against the Niners. Los Angeles does not have much of a home-field advantage at SoFi Stadium which they share with the Rams. There may be as many Chiefs fans in the crowd tonight. The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road against the Chargers. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (469) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (471) minus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Vikings (472). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday in a 31-28 upset loss in overtime as a 4-point favorite. Minnesota (8-1) is on a seven-game winning streak after their 33-30 upset win in overtime at Buffalo as a 6.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINT(S): Many observers have expressed surprise that the Vikings are home underdogs in this game. Well, the laptops don’t think their 8-1 record corresponds with their underlying numbers. The analytics at Football Outsiders ranks Minnesota as the 17th-best team in the league — ranking a middling 17th on offense and 19th on defense. This is a team that is solid but not spectacular in an area — their run offense ranks 10th in the league using the Football Outsiders DVOA metrics which is their best specific showing. They rank in the teens in Passing Offense, Run Defense, and Pass Defense. They are just 25th in Special Teams DVOA. They are getting outgained in yardage by -25.3 net Yards-Per-Game. All seven of their wins during this winning streak have been by one scoring possession. If they win four of those seven games, then no one bats an eye if a 5-4 team is a home dog to a 6-3 road team. The Vikings were very fortunate to leave Buffalo with a victory last week — it required Josh Allen red zone interceptions, Sean McDermott bypassing chip shot field goals on 4th downs, the Bills’ lacking a four-minute offense, and a miracle fumble recovery on the Buffalo goal line with less than a minute to go. Minnesota may be due for an emotional letdown after that huge comeback victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by six points or less. They did surrender 486 yards in that game with 175 of those yards coming on the ground. The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing 350 or more yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards. And while Kirk Cousins completed 30 of 50 passes for 357 yards, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after passing for 250 or more yards. Cousins has a 2-8 record against Dallas in his career. The Vikings are also dealing with some injuries on defense with defensive end Dalvin Tomlinson out and linebacker Za’Darius Smith questionable with a knee. Dallas, on the other hand, ranks 4th in the NFL using the DVOA metrics with the 2nd best rushing attack and the 4th best pass defense. The Cowboys have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. They did gain 421 yards against the Packers' defense — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining 350 or more yards in their last game. Dallas has averaged 431.5 Yards-Per-Game in their last two contests. And while they gave up 415 yards last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after giving up 350 or more yards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. The Cowboys lead the league with 35 sacks — and Cousins is notorious for struggling if he is under duress. Dallas is staying on the road where they are outscoring and outgaining their home hosts — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 4 straight road games with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against NFC opponents — and the Vikings are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against conference rivals. The books will likely be vindicated for treating Minnesota as closer to a .500 team this afternoon. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (471) minus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Vikings (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (311) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (312). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (6-3) has won six of their last seven games after their 17-10 win at home against Denver as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Green Bay (4-6) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 31-28 upset win in overtime against Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee will be without four starters tonight (one being their kicker Randy Bullock) — but I am comfortable endorsing them after getting confirmation at noon PM ET from the reports that Jeffery Simmons is expected to take the field. Simmons is their criminally-underrated defensive tackle that anchors their defense that the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders rank as the best against the run in the NFL. Simmons is listed as questionable with an ankle injury and only took part in limited practice on Tuesday — but he has not practiced for weeks but has still played at a high level in their last two games against Kansas City and then the Broncos. I suspected Simmons would play — but on a short week, I wanted further confirmation from the Thursday reports. The Titans expect quarterback Ryan Tannehill to again play tonight after he completed 19 of 36 passes for 255 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions on Sunday. The only loss for Tennessee since September 19th was their 20-17 overtime loss at Kansas City when they had to use rookie Malik Willis under center. The Titans controlled the tempo of that game — 5th-year head coach Mike Vrabel is one of the best in the business in preparing his team to impose their will on their opponent. Tennessee knows who they are and what they want to do — and it all starts with running back Derrick Henry who is playing at a very high level right now. Henry only gained 53 rushing yards on 19 carries against Denver — but that was the first time in his last six games that he did not rush for at least 102 yards. In his last six contests, he has gained 731 yards on the ground with seven rushing touchdowns and a 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry average. With his lighter workload on Sunday, he should be ready for a big performance tonight against a Packers defense now playing with Rashan Gary who suffered a season-ending torn ACL. Green Bay has been one of the worst defensive teams against the rush all season (even with Gary in the front seven). They have the worst run defense in the NFL according to the DVOA analytics. They rank 28th in the league by allowing their opponents to average 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry. It has been even worse for the Packers when playing at home as they rank second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 5.5 YPC and a whopping 171.3 rushing YPG. The Titans’ ability to run puts their defense in a position to better succeed — they have not allowed more than 17 points in five of their last six games (with the Chiefs’ field goal in overtime being the lone exception during that span). Tennessee has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread victory. The Titans have covered the point spread in seven straight games. While some bettors and handicappers may feel that is evidence of them being due for a letdown, that sounds like the gambler’s fallacy to me. The counter-take is that Tennessee remains undervalued by the betting market given their less-than-glamorous formula for success. When it comes to evidence, Tennessee has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after covering the point spread in five straight games. This is what this team does when they get on a roll under Vrabel’s leadership. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after the first month of the season. Green Bay seems more likely to be vulnerable for a letdown after the highly emotional victory against the Cowboys in the Mike McCarthy versus Aaron Rodgers Bowl last week. Playing on a short week only compounds that matter. As it is, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Green Bay found success by finally committing to running the ball for a full game. Rodgers only passed the ball 20 times — and they ran the ball 39 times for 207 rushing yards. For context, the previous fewest pass attempts that the Packers have had in a game was back in September when Rodgers threw the ball 25 times while handing the ball off 38 times — although many of those rushes came in the second half after they took a double-digit lead. Green Bay had success running against a Cowboys defense that got torched for 240 rushing yards by the Bears the previous week. It will be much harder to run the ball with success against this Titans defense (with Simmons in the middle) — especially if left tackle David Bakhtiari and/or right tackle Elton Jenkins are not at 100% or not able to play. Both tackles are listed as questionable for tonight after dealing with injuries all season — so playing on the short week is not a given. The Packers surrendered 421 yards in the victory — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Besides Gary, Green Bay will also be without linebacker De’Vondre Campbell who is out with a knee injury. The Packers' defense has been a disappointment this season — they rank 17th in the NFL according to the DVOA analytics. Green Bay has given up at least 23 or more points in six of their last seven games (and seven of their ten this season). 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Tennessee Titans (311) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (265) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (266). THE SITUATION: Washington (4-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in a 20-17 loss to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog. Philadelphia (8-0) remained unbeaten after their 29-17 win at Houston as a 14-point favorite for Thursday Night Football on November 3rd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS PLUS THE POINTS: If it is after Halloween, then Ron Rivera has his Washington team starting to click. The Commanders started 1-5 in 2020 before winning six of their last ten games to win the NFC East and make the playoffs. Last year, Washington started the season 2-6 before closing out the year by winning five of their last nine games. The Commanders lost four of their first five games this season — but they have won three of four and just played the one-loss Vikings well in a narrow loss last week. Washington is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record with Rivera as their head coach. It starts with the play of their defense. Even with defensive end Chase Young still out with an injury, the Commanders boast one of the best defensive lines in the league with Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne at defensive tackle and Montez Sweat at defensive end. Those are all first-round picks with both tackles products of Alabama and Sweat a former star at Mississippi State. Washington has held their last five opponents to 17.0 Points-Per-Game with no team scoring more than 21 points. They have held four of their last five opponents to no more than 324 yards — and they have held their last three opponents to 285.7 total YPG. Furthermore, the return of rookie running back Brian Robinson who missed the start of the season after being the victim of a shooting in the preseason. He ran the ball 13 times for 44 yards last week — and while those are not spectacular numbers, his presence opens up other options for the offense with Antonio Gibson who does have to then be the bell-cow running back. Additionally, Taylor Heinicke may be an upgrade at quarterback over Carson Wentz. He gives the team a spark. He is quicker to distribute the football than Wentz who takes too many sacks and melts under pressure. Heinicke is completing 63.0% of his passes for 629 passing yards in three starts with five touchdowns and three interceptions. Last year in 15 starts (16 games), he completed 65% of his passes last year while throwing for 3419 passing yards last season with 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions while adding 313 rushing yards. Heinicke has a great connection with wide receiver Terry McClaurin who has been targeted at least eight times in each of his three starts for 16 receptions and 242 receiving yards. Heinicke is a solid game manager who avoids the trouble that buries Wentz — and this team has weapons with an energized McClaurin along with Robinson and Gibson out of the backfield. The defense will keep them in games. Washington has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a point spread win. And while they outrushed the Vikings by 81 net yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after outrushing their last opponent by 75 or more yards. The defensive metrics at Football Outsiders rank the Commanders as the second-best run defense in the league. Philadelphia is averaging 391.0 total YPG — but Washington has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams generating at least 350 YPG. The Eagles are completing 68% of their passes behind quarterback Jalen Hurts — but the Commanders have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 55 games in the second half of the season against teams completing at least 64% of their passes including eight of those last eleven circumstances. And while Philly controls the ball for 32:14 minutes per game, Washington has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams who control time of possession for at least 32 minutes per game. Philadelphia gained 360 yards in their win against the Texans last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They held Houston to just 135 passing yards in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. The Eagles are playing great — but one of their keys to success has been dominating the turnover battle which can be fickle as the season moves on. Philly has only committed three turnovers this season while enjoying a league-leading +15 net turnover margin. Now they host a Washington team that has only committed three turnovers in their last four games — and they have forced six turnovers during that stretch. The Eagles are vulnerable. They rank 27th in run defense according to the DVOA metrics. And while they are averaging 391.0 YPG, that mark has dropped by almost 50 YPG in their last three games as they have averaged only 343.0 YPG in those three contests. Philadelphia ranks only 27th in Special Teams DVOA — and the Commanders rank 7th in the league in Special Teams DVOA. Washington is allowing 5.7 Yards-Per-Play — and the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 5.6 or more YPP. Philly has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against NFC East rivals.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Eagles’ 24-8 victory at Washington on September 25th. Wentz was under center in that game — and he was awful. Robinson had yet to be medically cleared at that point of the season. But what was most interesting in that contest was that after the Eagles scored 24 points in the second quarter, the Commanders held them scoreless in the second half. Look for an even better defensive game plan in this rematch against the heavy RPO offense that Philadelphia deploys. Defending the run-pass option requires the defensive players to embrace assignment football — and that is something that can be initially uncomfortable for players trained to attack the football. Washington did a great job in stopping the run in that game with the Eagles only gaining 72 rushing yards on 30 carries. But Hurts torched them in the passing game for 340 yards with 169 of those yards going to DeVonta Smith. Rivera and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio will have an effective rebuttal tonight. The Commanders have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Commanders (265) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (263) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (264). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-3) has won four of their last five games after their 20-17 win at Atlanta as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (4-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 31-14 upset win at Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1-point underdog on October 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles is riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball — Joey Bosa and J.C. Jackson headline the players missing on defense while the offense is without wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. But the team is still winning with Justin Herbert finding a way to win games. Herbert has found a new reliable receiver in second-year pro Joshua Palmer who he has targeted 22 times in the last two weeks for 17 receptions and 163 receiving yards. Palmer was a third-round pick last year from Tennessee. Running back Austin Ekeler had an off day in the victory in Atlanta as he only had 71 total yards on 21 touches. But Ekeler had been doing everything for this team in the previous three weeks given the attrition at wide receiver — he has 240 rushing yards and another 169 receiving yards with four touchdowns from 65 touches in the previous three games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road. And while they gave up 201 rushing yards to the Falcons' run-first offense, they have then covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game. Despite the injuries at wide receiver, Herbert has completed at least 30 passes in three straight games. He has thrown the ball at least 40 times in each of their last three games — and the Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after attempting at least 40 passes in two straight games. The defense has played better lately as they have held their last three opponents to 23.3 Points-Per-Game and 325.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Los Angeles ranks 10th in the league in defending the pass according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Francisco is dealing with plenty of injuries of their own — especially on defense. The 49ers' secondary is without Emmanuel Moseley and Jason Verrett for the rest of the season — but the issues on their defensive line might be even worse. San Francisco will be without defensive tackles Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw tonight (after already being without defensive tackle Maurice Hurst for the season) along with defensive end Samson Ebukam. The Niners still have Nick Bosa — but those are three starters on the defensive line they will be without which changes the dynamic for a unit that was ranked 4th in the league in run defense using DVOA. The 49ers have allowed 28.7 PPG and 347.0 YPG in their last three games — much higher than the 18.4 PPG and 285.9 total YPG they are giving up for the season. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are allowing 25.8 PPG this season — but the 49errs have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against opponents who are allowing at least 24 PPG. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (263) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (254) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (253). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (6-2) had their four-game winning streak snapped with a 20-17 upset loss in New York against the Jets as an 11-point favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (7-1) has won six games in a row after their 20-17 win at Washington as a 3-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: If Case Keenum was the starting quarterback for the Bills today, then I was prepared to endorse Buffalo (especially with the line likely dropping with that confirmation). Instead, it looks like Josh Allen will play despite his UCL injury with the team indicating their doctors do not think he can make things worse for his elbow at this point. With the point spread under six points, I am still endorsing the Bills. We want to play against this Vikings team against a high-quality opponent. Minnesota has won all six of their games decided by one possession which is propping up their record. The laptops don’t love them — they rank just 18th in the overall DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They are getting outgained by -28 net Yards-Per-Game. Now they are playing outdoors in the cold Buffalo air where they have not scored more than 24 points this season. They are averaging just 17 PPG in outdoor stadiums with the Kirk Cousins passing attack averaging a mere 201 passing Yards-Per-Game. Overall on the road, the Vikings are scoring 19.8 PPG and averaging 285.8 total YPG. They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games on the road after a win by three points or less. They got outrushed by 81 yards to the Commanders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after getting outrushed by 75 or more yards. Buffalo is 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread loss. Allen has struggled with four interceptions in his last five quarters of play. Perhaps the elbow issue will compel the Bills to run the ball more. I do not think Buffalo’s problem is a lack of quality running backs — they need more conviction to lean on their ground game. They do return home where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games a home — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams from the NFC. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (254) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (253). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (114) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (113). THE SITUATION: Carolina (2-7) has lost five of their last six games after a 42-21 loss at Cincinnati as a 7-point on Sunday. Atlanta (4-5) has lost two of their last three games after a 20-17 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Falcons only managed 315 total yards last week in their loss to the Chargers. They are a run-first team under second-year head coach Arthur Smith — they are running the football on 61% of their offensive plays from scrimmage. Atlanta ranks 8th in efficiency on offense according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — but this run focus has them averaging only 280.5 total YPG in their four road games which is resulting in just 21.5 Points-Per-Game. The Falcons are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread loss. They are allowing 450.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 450 YPG over a three-game stretch. Atlanta ranks 29th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA. In their four games on the road, they are giving up 27.5 PPG and 428.5 total YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on Thursday Night Football. Carolina will go back to Baker Mayfield under center this week after P.J. Walker only completed 3 of 10 passes last week for a mere nine yards — he had tossed two interceptions. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a loss on the road by 21 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after allowing 40 or more points in their last contest. And while they got outgained by -236 yards to the Bengals last week, they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 home games after getting outgained by at least 100 yards in their last contest. We had Cincinnati in that game last week — frankly, Carolina caught an angry Bengals team that got embarrassed on Monday Night Football by Cleveland. And while the Panthers traded away Christian McCaffrey, they did not unload their valuable assets on defense like defensive end Brian Burns. Carolina allows only 21.2 PPG when playing at home — but they are scoring just 19.6 PPG and generating a mere 285.0 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers are going nowhere this season — but these bad teams playing in front of a nationally-televised audience usually play hard especially if they come off an embarrassing loss themselves. Carolina will want to avenge a 37-34 loss at Atlanta on October 30th — and they have covered the point spread in 45 of their last 66 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up at least 28 points. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Carolina Panthers (114) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (474) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (473). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (3-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 24-0 shutout win at home against Las Vegas as a 1-point underdog. Baltimore (5-3) has won three of their last four games after their 27-22 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 2-point underdog back on October 27th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: The laptops love this Ravens team despite them getting outgained by -4.6 net Yards-Per-Game this season. Injuries continue to hit this team hard. The run game will take a hit with Gus Edwards doubtful to play this week with a hamstring injury — and J.K. Dobbins is already out. That leaves Kenyon Drake and Justice Hill as the primary running backs to complement Lamar Jackson’s rushing skills (BTW, Jackson does not have a rushing touchdown in five straight games). Jackson will also miss wide receiver Rashod Bateman and tight end Mark Andrews for this game. Baltimore did gain 453 yards against the Buccaneers last week (with Edwards the primary ball carrier) — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. They are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point-spread win. The Ravens are scoring just 23.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three contests. Their run defense is vulnerable against a good running back like Alvin Kamara — they rank 24th in the league in run defense according to the DVOA metrics used by Football Outsiders. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by 14 or more points. They held the Raiders to just 183 yards of offense — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last contest. Derek Carr managed only 145 passing yards in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. The New Orleans defense has held their last three opponents to just 285.7 total YPG, They stay at home where they have held their guests to just 20.5 PPG and 296.8 YPG. They are outscoring their opponents at home by +4.3 PPG and outgaining them by a healthy +81.2 net YPG.  

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New Orleans Saints (474) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (471) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (472). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (5-2) has won five straight games after their 17-10 upset win at Houston as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (5-2) has won three of their last four games after their 44-23 win at San Francisco as a 1-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: We won’t know who the starting quarterback for the Titans will be until kickoff with Ryan Tannehill a game-time decision with his high ankle injury. If Tannehill cannot go, then it will be rookie Malik Willis under center. Frankly, both options are limited in the passing game, especially given the lack of reliable weapons the team has at wide receiver. It will be the Derrick Henry Show tonight for the Titans — and he is in great form after rushing for 219 yards last week on 32 carries. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Chiefs may rank 3rd in the NFL by giving up only 92 rushing Yards-Per-Game, which comes from only 22 rushing attempts per game by their opponents who typically abandon their running game because they are trailing. Kansas City allows their opponents to average 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank 17th in run defense Football Outsiders’ DVOA defensive ratings. The Chiefs have allowed at least 100 rushing yards in three straight games with those opponents averaging 127 rushing YPG and 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. Tennessee beat Houston last week even with Willis under center because they controlled time of possession by being on the field for 34:48 minutes and outgaining the Texans by +193 net yards. The Titans have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point-spread victory. Tennessee can stay competitive in this game because of their defense. The Titans have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight games — and those four opponents combined for only 54 points. Their last three opponents have been held to 12.3 PPG and just 279.3 total Yards-Per-Game. The Tennessee defense ranks 10th in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings — and they have the best run defense in the NFL according to those metrics led by the criminally underrated Jeffery Simmons. The Titans lead the league in 3rd Down defense as well. Tennessee has covered the point spread in five straight games — and some bettors who commit the Gambler’s Fallacy prescribe to the belief that this is a reason to fade a team. But Tennessee has covered the points spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in five straight games. Their run game and defense travel as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Titans have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games as an underdog. If I had a nickel for every time I heard this week that Andy Reid’s teams have a 20-3 record coming off a bye. It was never mentioned that the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games coming off their bye week. Winning is one thing — covering a point spread approaching 14 points is quite another — and every square betting tonight’s game knows about Reid’s resume when he gets another week of preparation. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after playing a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Chiefs’ offense has averaged 458 yards in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after averaging at least 450 yards over a two-game stretch. And while the 49ers averaged 6.63 Yards-Per-Play against them two weeks ago, they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.0 YPP. They return home where they are scoring only 25.7 PPG and averaging just 358.0 YPG — and they have failed to cover the points spread in 4 straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Mike Vrabel’s philosophy is designed as the kryptonite to high-flying offenses like the Chiefs. Tennessee dominated Kansas City last year by a 27-3 score while gaining only 334 yards of offense. Reid has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of his last 7 coached games against the Titans. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against AFC opponents — and they have failed to cover the points spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against AFC rivals — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games in Weeks 5 through 9. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Tennessee Titans (471) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (464) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (463). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-4) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 32-13 upset loss as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Carolina (2-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 37-34 loss in overtime at Atlanta on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: The Cincinnati offense struggled to move the football on Monday with wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase out with an injury. They only gained 229 total yards in that game. But the Bengals' anemic effort probably had more to do with Myles Garrett and the inspired Browns' defense along with their shaky defensive line. Now they host a Panthers team that is allowing 26.7 Points-Per-Game. Cincinnati should get their offense going again by running the darn football — they have only gained 189 rushing yards in their last three games. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by 14 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 14 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last contest. They return home where they are scoring 27.3 PPG while generating 446.7 total Yards-Per-Game. They are also holding their guests to 18.3 PPG and 286.3 YPG. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They stay on the road where they are 0-3 this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (464) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (463). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (310) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (309). THE SITUATION: Houston (1-5-1) has lost five of their last six games after a 17-10 loss to Tennessee on Sunday. Philadelphia (7-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 35-13 victory against Pittsburgh as an 11-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston may look overmatched in this game — but there are plenty of ways that a home underdog can cover a point spread in the two-touchdown range when playing on a short week. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They allowed 354 yards to the Titans last week — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. And while they gained only 43 yards on 18 carries last week, they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. Houston can find success with their ground game tonight. While the Eagles rank 2nd in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders, Philly is only 22nd against the run according to those analytics. The Eagles have allowed 134 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last three games with each of those opponents averaging at least 124 rushing YPG and 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry. Second-year quarterback Davis Mills has a dismal 1-7-1 record in his nine career starts at home — but he has thrown 17 touchdown passes in those games.  On the other side of the ball, the Houston defense has been solid. They are holding their opponents to 22.0 PPG. They have held five of their seven opponents to 23 points or less — and they have played held four of those seven opponents to 20 points or less. Philadelphia is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. And while they generated 401 total yards against the Steelers last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Eagles did acquire Robert Quinn from Chicago last week — but he is replacing the injured defensive tackle Jordan Davis in their defensive line rotation since he was placed on Injured Reserve earlier this week. After playing their last two games at home, Philly goes back on the road where they are generating 342.0 total YPG which is over 50 YPG below their season average. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Four of Philadelphia’s victories this season have been by single digits. It is likely too much to ask of them to win this game by two touchdowns on the road and playing on a short week — especially when they will be satisfied with simply the victory. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Houston Texans (310) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (278) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (277). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (23-20) looks to snap a four-game losing streak after their 23-20 loss at Baltimore as a 6.5-point underdog last week. Cincinnati (4-3) has won four of their last five games after their 35-17 win against Atlanta as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland has lost five of their seven games this season — but this team can’t buy themselves a break. Four of their five losses have been by three points or less — and those four losses were by a combined nine points. The Browns are outgaining their opponents by +32.0 net Yards-Per-Game.  Turnovers are killing this team as they have lost the turnover battle in four straight games. But Cleveland has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 36 games after losing the turnover battle in at least three straight games. Now the Browns host a Bengals team that has only forced eight turnovers this season — and they have played three games where they did not have a takeaway. Injuries have played a role for the underperforming defense this season — but they will have both Myles Garrett and JaDeveon Clowney tonight. Cleveland held Baltimore to just 254 total yards last week which was very encouraging for a unit that was tied for 5th in the league last season by allowing only 311.5 total YPG. Cincinnati generated 537 yards in their victory against the Falcons last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after gaining at least 500 or more yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Bengals have played two straight Overs while generating 65 combined points in their last two games — but they will now be without wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase for this contest who is out with a hip injury. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing two straight Overs. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring only 22.8 Points-Per-Game while averaging just 305.8 Yards-Per-Game and getting outgained by -41.5 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be confident — they have won all four of their games against the Bengals under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Expect a close game. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (278) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (276) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (275). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-1) has won three games in a row after their 24-20 win at Kansas City two Sundays ago as a 2.5-point favorite. Green Bay (3-4) has lost three games in a row after their 23-21 upset loss as a 4-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: I generally do not like to lay double-digits in the NFL (although sometimes it is appropriate). I know what happens if Green Bay covers: they finally run the ball more, they play more two RB sets with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, they use more two tight end sets and play heavy, etc). Frankly, it seems as if Aaron Rodgers is resisting these moves (see his audibles on the one-yard line in the game in London against the Giants). Head coach Matt LaFleur lacks the gravitas to overrule Rodgers’ preferences when it comes to game-planning. Rodgers is working very hard to let everyone know how his team (and the world) continue to let him down. In the meantime, he misses open receivers, freezes out receivers, and throws too many lazy passes because the play is not developing to his delicate standards. Cue: eye roll. Even if the Packers started investing in the tactics I mentioned above, I don’t think they can successfully execute them against this Bills juggernaut. Buffalo has the best-run defense in the league according to the advanced DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The underperforming offensive line is dealing with injuries to Davi Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins questionable and likely not near 100% effectiveness. Rodgers is without his pet receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb for this game who are both out with injuries. Rodgers is dealing with a thumb injury that he will make sure to grab after he makes another bad mental decision — he did not practice on Wednesday with an inexperienced group of wide receivers that he needs every moment of preparation time with nurturing. The 4.2 air yards Rodgers is averaging per completion is the lowest in the NFL. The Packers are converting just 25% of their 3rd downs in their last three games. If there was a switch that Rodgers could simply flip with this challenge, why did he not do it after the upset loss against the Giants? Or the next week in the upset loss against the Jets (when I still thought they could Get Smart)? The loss to the Commanders last week just seemed like the evidence of what this team now is. I still thought the Packers would win the NFC North even after the loss of Davante Adams — but besides the decline of the offensive line and the lack of creativity using their two excellent running backs, the defense has regressed significantly. The Packers rank 25th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA. Maybe — even after all this — Green Bay steps up if they were playing at home at Lambeau. But they are on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. They gave up 364 total yards to the Taylor Heinicke-led Commanders last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after alloying 350 total yards in their last game. Furthermore, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. To make matters worse: they are catching Buffalo almost completely healthy, rested, and off a bye. The Bills may have the best roster depth in the league — and only defensive tackle Spencer Brown is injured so David Quessenberry, a starter for Tennessee last season, seamlessly steps in. Buffalo is 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a bye week. After their statement win against Kansas City, they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up win. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home — and they are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. And guess what? This is just their third game at home this season after beating their previous two opponents at home by an average score of 39.5-5.0 with the Bills generating 483.0 Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: I can live with myself losing a 25* play on Buffalo tonight; however, I would be apoplectic if I followed the "sharp" play and took Green Bay, and then they got buried. That litmus test is usually effective for me. Rodgers has never been a bigger underdog in his career before tonight. He might relish in a blowout loss to let his coach and management know: “I told ya so!” (I have no idea what the “told ya” means …). 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Buffalo Bills (276) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the New York Giants (269). THE SITUATION: Seattle (4-3) has won three of their last four games after their 37-23 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (6-1) is on a four-game winning streak with their 23-17 upset win at Jacksonville last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: These are two similar teams overachieving preseason expectations. Both teams coming off multiple upset victories and now have resumes that include them getting outgained in yardage on the season. I suspect it is the Giants’ bubble that gets burst with the challenging trip out west to play in Lumen Field and their “12th man” with the fans. All six of the Giants’ victories have been by one scoring possession including near-miracle finishes against Tennessee, Green Bay, and Baltimore. Rookie head coach Brian Daboll is doing a fantastic job in game managing — and he has Daniel Jones operating as a junior Josh Allen. But the offense lacks a vertical passing threat. After the season-ending injury to Sterling Shepard, the trade to Kadarius Toney earlier this week, and Kenny Golladay in the dog house, the Giants starting wide receivers are Darius Slayton and rookie slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson. Rookie tight end Daniel Bollinger is out with an injury for this game. The Giants' offensive line will also be missing rookie right tackle, Evan Neal, along with Ben Bredesen. New York is last in the NFL with only seven pass plays of more than 20 yards — the second-lowest mark in the league is then 14 pass plays of 20 or more yards. But the biggest difference between these two teams is on defense. Despite defensive coordinator Don Martindale’s blitz-heavy clever schemes, the Giants rank 29th in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ Defensive DVOA metrics. They rank 30th in Run Defense using those metrics — and they are last in the league by allowing 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry. The Pass Defense ranks 26th in DVOA — and they have registered only one interception this season. The defensive woes start on first down where they are allowing 6.7 Yards-Per-Carry and 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. New York has registered three straight upsets with their last two wins against the Ravens and Jaguars finishing Under the Total — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing two straight Unders. Seattle has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games after playing a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Seahawks may have the Offensive Rookie of the Year in Kenneth Walker who offers the team an explosive weapon in the backfield since he took over as the bell-cow back after the injury to Rashaad Penny. Walker helped Seattle run for 214 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. Quarterback Geno Smith is poised to win the Comeback Player of the Year award as now a season-veteran who has learned his craft after playing behind Philip Rivers and Russell Wilson for years. Talent was never the issue for this former first-round draft pick. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has done a great job with him. On first downs, Smith is completing 81.5% of his passes while averaging 8.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. On third downs needing at least seven yards, he has completed 17 of 22 passes (77.3%). After both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett were on the injured list this week, it appears both will take the field today. The Seahawks rank 3rd in the NFL in Offensive DVOA. On defense, they are middle of the road — ranking 19th in Defensive DVOA and 17th against the run (both marks higher than the Giants). Overall, Seattle ranks 7th in overall DVOA versus New York ranking 14th (for what that is worth).    

FINAL TAKE: Home field should make the difference in this game where the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. 25* NFC Favorite of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the New York Giants (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.     

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) minus (or plus) the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (101). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-4) has lost four of their last five games after their 21-3 upset loss at Carolina as a 13-point favorite on Sunday. Baltimore (4-3) has won two of their last three games with their 23-20 win against Cleveland as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: What is going on with Tampa Bay — and can they pick themselves off the mat at this point? They have been ravaged by injuries on both sides of the ball. The offensive line remains a mess and the defensive backfield is banged up — but quarterback Tom Brady at least has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin back. The team misses left guard Ali Marpet who retired in the offseason and linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul who signed with the Ravens as a free agent. The quality of the roster has declined since their Super Bowl victory in 2020. Brady seems distracted with his divorce and desire to attend Robert Kraft weddings. Despite their losing record, the analytics at Football Outsiders still rank Tampa Bay as the 8th-best team in their overall DVOA ratings. They are outgaining their opponents by +22.5 net Yards-Per-Game. I think much of what is going on is simply malaise. The team started strong — despite the injuries — with victories at Dallas and New Orleans. They lost a low-scoring game at home to Green Bay. They lost at home to Kansas City after falling behind the eight-ball early by fumbling the opening kickoff. They rebounded by beating a feisty Atlanta team at home, raising their record to 3-2. They then traveled to Pittsburgh with their rookie quarterback as a 9.5-point favorite — two days after Brady attends the Kraft wedding — and they play flat in a 16-10 upset loss. They stay on the road to play at Carolina as a nearly two-touchdown favorite against a tanking Panthers team who just traded Christian McCaffrey and who were using P.J. Walker at quarterback — and they lacked energy in that embarrassing loss. Evans dropped an early touchdown pass that might have changed the tone of that game. Now after two bad upset losses, I suspect the Buccaneers rally around each other on the short week with the challenge of hosting a good Ravens team. I like how Brady is responding to the adversity by showing positive leadership toward his teammates. He does not show dramatic signs of decline like some of the other older guard of quarterbacks. He is completing 66.9% of his passes while averaging 277.4 passing YPG. His eight touchdown passes are low — but he has only thrown one interception this season. The Tampa Bay passing attack ranks 10th in the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. So, I think the Buccaneers can continue their team trend of covering the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after getting upset on the road as a favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss as a road favorite. They are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Bucs have lost two of their three games at home — but they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The defense remains stout — ranking 5th in Defensive DVOA with top-11 marks in run defense and pass defense. In their last three games, they have held their opponents to 18.7 PPG and 293.3 total YPG. Baltimore is dealing with attrition as well with defensive end Calais Campbell out with an illness and several other starters questionable going into tonight. Perhaps left tackle Ronnie Stanley along with both starting cornerbacks Marlon Humphries and Marcus Peters all play tonight — but how effective will they be with their injuries and can they play the entire game? The Ravens outlasted the Browns despite getting outgained by a 336 to 254 yardage margin. They are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a win at home. Baltimore is only one of two teams to hold double-digit leads in all their games — but why have they blown those big leads in three of their games? They are getting outgained by -20.1 net YPG. The Ravens rank 23rd in run defense by DVOA — so perhaps this is the opponent that Tampa Bay can get Leonard Fournette going with their ground game. Baltimore has allowed four of their last five opponents to rush for at least 101 yards. The Ravens have not scored more than 23 points in four straight games — and they are averaging only 328.3 total YPG in their last three contests. The passing game has not been as effective with the team failing to gain more than 195 yards in the air in four straight games. Statistically, there was a correlation between Lamar Jackson putting up bigger numbers with Rashod Bateman being healthy and on the field. Bateman was considered the key piece for the offense to move on from Marquise Brown who they traded to Arizona. But Bateman has struggled with drops before missing two games with an injury. He returned in the Browns game and caught four balls for 40 yards — but Jackson only had 120 passing yards in the game. The Ravens have played three of their last four games at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in October. Look for Brady and company to find a way to win this critical game for them. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) minus (or plus) the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (476) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (475). THE SITUATION: New England (3-3) is on a two-game winning streak after their 38-15 upset win at Cleveland as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Chicago (2-4) has lost three in a row after their 12-7 loss to Washington as a 1-point underdog two Thursdays ago on October 13th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: While many observers pre-judged Bill Belichick’s decision to have Matt Patricia, those of us who were willing to just wait and evaluate the evidence as it develops (and Week One does not offer enough “evidence”) are now not handcuffed by the need to confirm prior assumptions. And guess what? The Patriots’ offense is starting to purr under Patricia’s guidance — even with rookie Bailey Zappe at quarterback. After only scoring 24 combined points in their first two games, New England has scored at least 24 points in four straight games while averaging 28.8 Points-Per-Game during that stretch. They are getting it done by running the football behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL — they are generating 146.5 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last four games. In their two home games, they are averaging 160 rushing YPG on 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry. That level of productivity affords the Patriots the luxury of not having either of their young quarterbacks have to do too much in the passing game — but the team has passed for over 300 yards in two of their last four games. Belichick has yet to name a starter for tonight — but it was Mac Jones working with the first team on Saturday, so that is who I expect gets the nod. Frankly, it does not matter as both are capable in this offense. Zappe completed 24 of 34 passes for 309 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. While Buffalo and Kansas City get most of the attention with their dynamic passing attacks, it is teams like Philadelphia, Dallas, Seattle, and the New York Giants who rank in the Football Outsiders' top ten in offensive DVOA with run-first philosophies on offense. Now they host a Bears’ team that ranks 26th in Run Defense DVOA according to the Football Outsiders metrics. New England are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. Additionally, they are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. And while they generated 399 yards of offense against the Browns, they are then 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Patriots are 48-20-2 ATS in their last 70 games in October — and they have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 52 games against teams with a losing record under Belichick’s leadership. In regards to the Bears, it is too easy to criticize the Bears management for not getting Fields more weapons — these observers fail to appreciate that first-year general manager Ryan Poles inherited a salary-cap disaster courtesy of previous general manager Ryan Pace which will take two years to address. Fields is getting better after not being coached well last season under “offensive” head coach Matt Nagy. But this team lacks weapons in the passing game while Fields works behind one of the worst offensive lines in the game. And the Bears' defense has regressed — they rank 21st in the league using the Defensive DVOA metrics. In their three games on the road, the Bears are allowing 25.3 PPG and 392.0 YPG. Chicago is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a loss. They did gain 392 yards last week - but they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They held Washington to just 204 total yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t love laying more than a touchdown in the NFL — but there are times when it is appropriate. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots (476) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (474) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (473). THE SITUATION: Miami (3-3) has lost three in a row after their 24-16 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Pittsburgh (2-4) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 20-18 upset victory against Tampa Bay as a 10-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: The Steelers had not scored more than 20 points in any of their games during their four-game losing streak — they were scoring just 13.5 Points-Per-Game during that losing streak. And they only gained 270 yards against the Buccaneers last week — so it is not as if they discovered the keys to the offensive engine with rookie Kenny Pickett under center. But after an embarrassing 38-3 loss to Buffalo the previous week, head coach Mike Tomlin demanded a better effort from his team against Tom Brady and company. But the Steelers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point-spread win. Now they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games. Pittsburgh is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against fellow AFC rivals. They rank only 24th in Offensive DVOA according to the analytics at Football Outsiders — and they cannot get their ground game going to help out Kenny Pickett or Mitchell Trubisky as they rank second-to-last in Rushing DVOA. In their three games on the road, they are scoring 14.3 Points-Per-Game. Miami gets Tua Tagovailoa back from concussion protocol for this game which should help get their offense clicking in the Red Zone. The Dolphins to did generate 458 yards of offense last week against the Vikings — and they held Minnesota to just 234 total yards. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last contest. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Dolphins. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Miami Dolphins (474) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (455) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (456). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (3-2-1) has won three of their last four games after their 34-27 win against Jacksonville as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (3-2) returns from their bye week on a three-game winning streak after their 21-17 victory at Washington two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis gets back running back Jonathan Taylor for this game to offer some balance for this Colts offense — and that should put quarterback Matt Ryan in an even better position to succeed. After a slow start to the season behind a struggling offensive line, head coach Frank Reich and the veteran Super Bowl quarterback have put things together in the passing game. Ryan completed 42 of 58 passes for 389 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions in the win against the Jaguars. The emergence of rookie wide receiver Alec Pierce has provided Ryan with a viable receiving option to complement Michael Pittman. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win against a divisional rival. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after winning two of their last three games. And while they ran the ball only 16 times for 45 yards last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not rushing for more than 90 yards — and getting Taylor back will be a boon for this offense. The Colts' defense did hold the Jags to just 136 passing yards last week — and they are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. Indy ranks 10th in the NFL by allowing only 323.7 Yards-Per-Game — and they are third in the league in 3rd Down defense. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in October. The Colts are dealing with some injuries with Shaq Leonard not ready to return to linebacker this afternoon and defensive end Kwity Paye injured — but the Titans have their share of missing starters as well. Left tackle Taylor Lewan and top linebacker Harold Landry III are out the year with injuries. Linebacker Zach Cunningham and right guard Nate Davis are also out for today’s game. The Titans gained only 241 yards in their win against the Commanders — and they got outgained by -144 net yards after surrendering 385 total yards to Washington two weeks ago. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. The draft day trade of wide receiver A.J. Brown has left the offense too one-dimensional. The team signed Robert Woods as a free agent and drafted rookie Treylon Burks from Arkansas — but he is injured and out for today’s game. Ryan Tannehill completed 15 of 25 passes against the Commanders for only 181 yards. Their 136 net passing yards (after sacks) was their third-lowest passing yardage effort this season. They are an unreliable favorite who have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games laying up to three points. Despite their winning record, they are getting outscored by -4.2 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -112.6 YPG  due to an anemic offense gaining only 278.2 YPG. They only generate 25.4 yards per drive on offense while surrendering 37.4 yards per drive — and that -11.75 net yardage difference per drive is last in the league. Indianapolis, on the other hand, has outgained their opponents by +26 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have won their last four games against the Colts after their 24-17 win at Lucas Oil Stadium as a 4-point underdog on October 2nd. But Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against Tennessee at their Nissan Stadium. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (455) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (303) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (304). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (2-4) has lost four of their last five games after their 30-26 loss to Cincinnati as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Arizona (2-4) has lost two in a row after their 19-9 upset loss at Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans has lost four of their six games despite outgaining their opponents by +39.5 net Yards-Per-Game this season. Three of their four losses were decided by one-scoring possession. They outgained the Bengals last week by a 399 to 348 yardage margin in the loss. Turnovers have been a problem — with many of them coming from interceptions from Jameis Winston. The Saints’ special teams are a mess as well with them ranking 31st in the DVOA rankings of special teams units at Football Outsiders. But they play a Cardinals team that ranks just 29th in special teams. And while head coach Dennis Allen has not named a starting quarterback, reports indicate that he will likely tap Andy Dalton as his starter once again this week with Winston not 100% with a back and ankle injury that kept him limited in practice on this short week. Dalton has thrown only one interception in three games this season with a 1.2% interception rate for his 82 passes. That is what this Saints team needs right now — play smart, lean on their defense, and avoid mistakes. They are ravaged with injuries (but so are the Cardinals). Wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are out along with tight end Andrew Trainman. Starting left guard Andrus Peat is also out. Winston would not have the skill players he would need to take advantage of his arm strength while perhaps needing to be savvier given the offensive line issues. Dalton is the better option on a short week — and he did work with the starting offense on Tuesday. Furthermore, offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael is going a nice job incorporating Taysom Hill as a weapon at quarterback or running back to throw off opposing defenses — something this Cardinals team will be susceptible to on a short week. The Saints are also without cornerback Marshon Lattimore. The good news is that rookie wide receiver Chris Olave is expected to play. Even better news: running back Alvin Kamara is heating up with 52 touches in the last two games. New Orleans ranks second in the league in Rushing DVOA according to Football Outsiders. The Saints have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 58 games on the road after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. They are outgaining their opponents by +32.0 net YPG in their three road games — and they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 54 games on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss as a road favorite. The injury list for the Cardinals is even worse than the Saints for this game on a short week. Wide receiver Marquise Brown is out for at least a month with a foot injury. Quarterback Kyler Murray does get DeAndre Hopkins back from his six-game suspension — but that is probably not a net-plus switch. Arizona is tied for last in the league by averaging only 4.1 air yards per completion — and Brown is more of a deep threat than Hopkins is at this point in his career. Running back James Conner is questionable with a rib injury. Additionally, the offensive line is hit hard with two starters out: left guard Justin Pugh is out the season with a knee, and center Rodney Hudson is out tonight. These issues on the offensive line are one of the reasons why Murray is struggling — but he does seem to be too often bailout out of the pocket and relying on his physical talent which can generate amazing highlight reels while not being the optimal route for efficiency on offense. The Cardinals are generating 19.0 PPG along with 346.0 YPG — and they rank 26th in Offensive DVOA and 26th in the passing game specifically which is an indictment of both Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury. If Kingsbury follows through with his consideration of giving up play-calling duties, then I am not sure what is left for the guy who had a losing record at Texas Tech before falling forward with this gig after getting sacked by his alma mater. The injuries on defense are also significant with linebacker Dennis Gardeck out and cornerback Trayvon Muller and safety Jalen Thompson questionable. The Cardinals rank 20th in Defensive DVOA — and they are allowing 28.0 PPG and 394.7 YPG in their three home games where they are getting outscored by -11.3 PPG. Arizona is winless in their three home games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games at home when favored.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against Arizona. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. After a 7-0 start last season, Arizona has lost 11 of their last 17 games with everything seeming to be moving in the wrong direction. In an expected close game, I find Dalton, Kamara, and the Saints' defense along with Dennis Allen as more reliable. 25* NFC Game of the Month with New Orleans Saints (303) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (275) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (276). THE SITUATION: Denver (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 12-9 loss in overtime as a 3-point favorite two Thursdays ago on October 6th. Los Angeles (3-2) has won two games in a row after their 30-28 win at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: I will be holding my nose taking this Denver team — but I suspect we will see an inspired effort from a desperate team who comes off the longest possible break in-between games save for the bye weeks. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after playing on Thursday in their last game. Denver did outgain the Colts by a 375 to 306 margin. Russell Wilson has been a big disappointment this season which was a surprise to me — but while I am skeptical of his long-term potential, he is still a savvy veteran who knows he needs to step it up. He claims some of his struggles are due to an arm injury — and he did get a shot in his right lat last week so perhaps he will have more zip again on his long ball. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a loss by three points or less. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Denver is playing better on defense than I expected. They were third in the league last year by allowing 18.9 Points-Per-Game — but I thought that number was misleading by the ball-control offense under head coach Vic Fangio. But the Broncos are allowing just 16.0 PPG this year while limiting their opponents to 289.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Furthermore, while ranking just 20th in the defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders last season, they currently sit second in the league in those analytics this year. Denver has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games on the road as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Chargers gained 465 total yards against the Browns with 238 of those yards on the ground. But this team has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has scored at least 30 points in their last two games while playing three straight Overs. But they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after playing three straight Overs. This team is dealing with several crushing injuries. Joey Bosa is on injured reserve hurting the defense that is allowing 28.5 PPG at home. Left tackle Rashawn Slater is out the year with a biceps injury. Wide receiver Keenan Allen was declared out for tonight as he recovers from a hamstring injury that has kept him out so far this season.

FINAL TAKE: Home teams at SoFi Stadium do not enjoy much of a home-field advantage — the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles is an unreliable favorite — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Look for this divisional rivalry to be a close game. 25* AFC West Game of the Month is with the Denver Broncos (275) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (274) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (273). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (5-0) remained the lone unbeaten team this week with their 20-17 victory at Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (4-1) has won four in a row after their 22-10 upset win at Los Angeles against the Rams as a 5.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: The laptops love this Philadelphia team. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders rank them as the second-best team in the league behind Buffalo. They rank 5th in both offensive DVOA and defensive DVOA according to their metrics. They enjoy the best turnover ratio in the NFL by a mile — their 11 takeaways are the most in the league and their two giveaways are the fewest in the league. Their RPO-heavy offense catches most teams off-guard while exposing defensive rosters designed to stop pass-heavy offenses using three or more wide receivers. They lead the NFL by controlling the time of possession for 33:53 minutes per game. But they combine a ball-control offense with explosiveness — they lead the league with 44 “Big Plays” (a rushing gain of 12 or more yards or a passing gain of 16 or more yards). They are outscoring their opponents by +9.4 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +125.4 net Yards-Per-Game. I am anxious to see the Eagles play against teams that made deep playoff runs last year — but they host a division rival with a backup quarterback tonight. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow win by three points or less. They return home where they have outgained their opponents by +202.0 net YPG this year. Philadelphia is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Dallas only gained 239 total yards last week against the Rams — and they were outgained by -84 net yards in pulling off that upset victory. A +3 net turnover margin including a defensive touchdown played a big role in that win against the defending Super Bowl champions who are facing an existential crisis with the injuries on their offensive line. Dallas has been very fortunate with their schedule after looking hapless in their opening game at Tampa Bay where they only scored a field goal. They got Cincinnati the next week who was dealing with offensive line cohesion issues along with Joe Burrow still rusty after his appendectomy limited his preseason work — and the Bengals almost rallied to win in the second half. They then got the New York Giants, with all due respect to the job Brian Daboll is doing in his first year with that dysfunctional organization. That win was followed up with a game against Washington and Carson Wentz who melts under defensive pressure (and Dallas’ pass rush is elite). This will be the Cowboys’ third game on the road in the last four weeks — a stiff challenge particularly for backup quarterback Cooper Rush. While the faux quarterback controversy provides national headlines for owner Jerry Jones, remember that general manager Jones cut Rush in late August before reclaiming him a day later when the entire league passed on him. Rush has benefited from playing with a lead for almost his entire stint since Dak Prescott got injured. He will likely have to play from behind tonight. The Cowboys rank 29th in the league in third-down offense with Rush under center. To compound the matter, he split time this week in practice with Prescott who flirted with playing in this game. The Dallas defense has helped them play two straight Unders — but the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 road games after playing two straight Unders.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia will have revenge on their mind against this Dallas team that toasted them 41-21 and then 51-26 in their two meetings last season. Admittedly, that 51-26 loss in Week 17 was against an Eagles team resting key starters with their wildcard game already set. Still, surrendering 92 points and losing by 45 combined points has certainly been a strong point of emphasis all offseason. If Philly wants to make a deep playoff run, then taking care of the Cowboys is high on their agenda. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (274) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (260) minus the points versus the New York Jets (259). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (3-2) looks to rebound from a 27-22 upset loss to the New York Giants as an 8.5-point favorite in London last Sunday. New York (3-2) pulled off their second-straight upset victory with a 40-17 upset win against Miami as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Green Bay controlled most of their game with the Giants — they held a 20-10 lead at halftime — but sleepwalked through the second half overconfident that they would always find a way to pull the game out against Daniel Jones. But Aaron Rodgers audibled out of likely successful running plays at the goal line to telegraph his little slant throw that everyone knows he likes — and the Giants’ defense successfully batted the last pass down to steal the game. Players called out Rodgers afterward — and maybe what this team needs is some internal tension to raise the level of urgency. As it is, Rodgers has led the Packers to nine straight wins after losing their last game with the average winning margin being by more than 14 points — and he has nine touchdown passes without an interception in those nine games. Green Bay has been resilient when facing (regular season) adversity — they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a point spread loss. The Packers have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss. Returning home to Lambeau Field will make a big difference where Green Bay has a 24-3 record since the beginning of the 2019 season. Rodgers’ personal record as the starter at Lambeau is 23-1 in his last 24 with 15 straight wins. The Packers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. New York has pulled off two straight upset wins after stunning Pittsburgh on the road two weeks ago. We had the Steelers in that game — Mitch Trubisky gets benched at halftime for Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh run defense collapsed late in that game when the Jets seemed satisfied to just burn time and kick a field goal to force overtime. The fortunate breaks continued last week with Teddy Bridgewater getting injured for the Dolphins in his first series of the game leaving Miami to have to play 7th-round draft pick, Skylar Thompson, at quarterback after not practicing with the first-team offense all week. But remember that it was still a 19-17 game five minutes into the fourth quarter before mistakes by Thompson contributed to the Jets scoring three late touchdowns to produce a final score that was not indicative of how close the game was. New York has skated by facing some of the least threatening quarterbacks in the league: Jacoby Brissett, Trubisky/Pickett, Bridgewater/Thompson. In their two games against Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, the Jets’ defense has surrendered six touchdown passes with only one interception. The Jets should get exposed in this one. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win by three or more touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. Having had action against the Jets the last two weeks, I have seen some of the sketchy plays that second-year quarterback Zach Wilson has made that do not translate into the box score. He benefited from facing an injury-depleted Dolphins secondary — but the assignment is much tougher against this angry Packers defense. New York is still banged up at tackle having to rely on fourth and fifth stringers. Wilson has a 3-6 record in his nine career starts on the road. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 road games against teams wit ha winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Execution should lead to the Packers pulling away in this one. The Jets rank 28th in 3rd Down Defense even with that rogue's gallery of quarterbacks they have played in three of their games — and here comes Rodgers with a chip on his shoulder after last week. The Green Bay defense has held their opponents to converting just 3 of 23 third downs of seven or more yards.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. This is a “relax” game for Rodgers against this Jets’ team playing over their head. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (260) minus the points versus the New York Jets (259). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (105) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Chicago Bears (106). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-4) lost for the fourth straight time on Sunday in a 21-17 loss at home to Tennessee as a 1-point underdog. Chicago (2-3) has lost two in a row after a 29-22 loss at Minnesota as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Washington has been a mess this season with Carson Wentz being responsible for seven giveaways with six interceptions including his pick at the goal-line to spoil a potential game-winning drive against the Titans. The Commanders dominated everything but the scoreboard in that game by gaining 385 yards and only giving up 241 yards. That is a good sign for them moving forward as they are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing no more than 250 yards in their last contest. Furthermore, Washington has covered the point spread in 4 straight games when on a four-game losing streak. Chicago rallied against an over-confident Vikings team last week before Minnesota pulled away. The Bears only gained 271 yards in that contest while surrendering 429 total yards. Chicago is 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a point spread victory. They return home where they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games at home as an underdog. This is a limited Bears offense right now with Justin Fields being asked to pass the ball only 88 times in five games this season. Chicago ranks 30th in Passing DVOA offense according to the metrics at Football Outsiders. The Bears want to run the ball — but the Commanders are tough against run by holding their last three opponents to 2.6 Yards-Per-Carry and just 80 rushing YPG. They rank 6th in Run Defense DVOA. Additionally, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in October — and they are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games on Thursdays.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Bears — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when playing them in Soldier Field. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Washington Commanders (105) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Chicago Bears (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (480) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (479). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (3-1) comes off a 41-31 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 2-point underdog last Sunday night. Las Vegas (1-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 32-23 win against Denver as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City demonstrated that their offense will continue to roll even without Tyreek Hill by overwhelming an outstanding Buccaneers last week. Patrick Mahomes is doing a great job in distributing the football to open receivers — and head coach Andy Reid is willing to dial up the running game against defenses that playing the in-vogue two high safety shell schemes to take away big plays in the passing game. The Chiefs ran for 189 yards against the stout Tampa Bay run defense while generating 417 total yards. They have scored at least 27 points in three of their four games while scoring 41 or more points twice. They are second in the NFL by averaging 32.3 Points-Per-Game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. And while they allowed 376 total yards to the Buccaneers last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Raiders will struggle to run the ball against the Chiefs' defense that leads the NFL by allowing only 66 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Admittedly, that number is lower because opponents abandon the ground game — but their opponents are averaging just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry and they rank third in run defense DVOA at Football Outsiders. The 23 points that Las Vegas gave up to the Broncos were the fewest points they have allowed this season. The Raiders’ defense is allowing 25.0 PPG and 357.0 total YPG. They did hold Denver to just 299 total yards — but the Broncos only had 45 offensive plays in the game. They allowed Denver to average 6.64 Yards-Per-Play a week after allowing Tennessee to average 6.69 YPP the previous week. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 6.0 YPP — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing two at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. The Raiders did control the clock for 34:52 minutes against the Broncos last week while generating 25 first downs — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a dominating effort where they gained at least 34 first downs while having their offense on the field for at least 34 minutes. If — and when — Las Vegas falls behind in this game, they will not have the luxury to try to keep Mahomes off the field by controlling the time of possession.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against the Chiefs — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against them at Arrowhead Stadium. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (480) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (477) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (478). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-2) won their second-straight game with their 27-15 victory against Miami as a 4-point favorite two Thursdays ago. Baltimore (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 23-20 loss to Buffalo as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bengals have addressed the sack issues that plagued them in their opening two games. After getting sacked an unsustainable 13 times in their first two games, Joe Burrow has only been sacked three times in his last two games for just 20 yards. Cincinnati invested heavily to upgrade their offensive line in the offseason by bringing in center Ted Karras from New England, right guard Alex Cappa from Tampa Bay, and right tackle La’El Collins from Dallas. It may have taken some time after not enough work in the preseason for this group to start developing cohesion. But the other factor was that Burrow was simply holding on to the ball too long looking for his dynamic win receivers to get open. He has done a better job over the last two games in getting the ball out faster. Don’t underestimate the impact of Burrow’s appendectomy in August in slowing down his getting up to speed. But now over his last three games, Burrow has six touchdown passes and no interceptions while posting a 107 Passer Rating. He completed 20 of 31 passes for 287 yards last week — and Cincy has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where they gained at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Now Burrow plays a limping Ravens’ pass defense that he torched for over 900 passing yards against in his two games against them last year. Baltimore is last in the NFL this season by surrendering 315 Yards-Per-Game. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. They gained 371 yards against the Dolphins last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bengals did give up 378 yards to Miami in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after allowing 375 or more yards in their last contest. Despite that yardage allowed, Cincinnati has been impressive on defense this season. They rank 8th in the league by holding their opponents to just 327.5 total Yards-Per-Game — and the five touchdowns they have conceded is the second-fewest in the NFL. The Bengals are 4th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 86 rushing YPG — and they are 4th in the league in 3rd Down defense. They are holding their opponents to just 17.5 PPG. Cincinnati goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. Baltimore only gained 295 total yards last week in a showdown with the Bills that many observers expected to be a scoring fest. The Ravens miss Marquise Brown at wide receiver who now plays for Arizona — he accounted for 91 receptions and 1008 yards last year. Rashod Bateman drops too many passes and has not been able to emerge as a legitimate number-one option. The passing attack now runs almost exclusively through tight end Mark Andrews — but the lack of threatening options on the outside is one of the reasons why the Ravens are averaging only 217 passing YPG. Baltimore has lost five straight games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points. The Ravens are also 11-27-2 ATS in their last 40 games in October. As seemingly always, injuries have hit this team hard. Baltimore has a long list of players out impacting their depth — and starting left tackle Ronnie Stanley and Bateman are out for tonight’s game. On defense, defensive tackle Michael Pierce is out and cornerback Marcus Peters is questionable.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals scored 41 points in both their victories against the Ravens last year. While Baltimore has been planning for revenge all off-season, Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games against AFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against AFC North rivals. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Baltimore against the Ravens. In Burrow, I Trust -- he should keep this game close (even if he does not lead his team to victory). 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (477) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (465) minus the points versus the New York Jets (466). THE SITUATION: Miami (3-1) returns to the field after their 27-15 loss as a 4-point underdog at Cincinnati back on September 29th. New York (2-2)  has won two of three after their 24-20 upset win at Pittsburgh as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: I needed to get the final active/inactive list for Miami before endorsing this play. The good news is that wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both active and expected to play after both names popped up on the injured list this week. Left tackle Terron Armstead is also active. The bad news is that the Dolphins’ elite cornerback, Xavien Howard, is inactive — but we can live with that against Zach Wilson. Tua Tagovailoa is also out — but that was expected and Teddy Bridgewater is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. Bridgewater has 63 career starts in the NFL. He completed 14 of 23 passes for 193 yards with a touchdown in relief last week against the Bengals. Miami is 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Dolphins passed for 294 yards last week, they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. They did give up 371 yards to the Bengals — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against AFC East rivals. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Second-year quarterback Zach Wilson demonstrated some moments of brilliance in the fourth quarter last week — but the Steelers also displayed some exasperating defense late in that game (to ruin our play on them where at least a push seemed salvageable before they seemingly let the Jets score on late running plays even though it looked like New York was settling for a field goal to send the game into overtime … still bitter). But Wilson had plenty of shaky moments including two interceptions where his judgment was not good at all. I still worry about his lack of seasoning in the preseason after his injury — and the Jets are still on their fourth and fifth offensive linemen (if my math is right) after getting decimated by injuries at the position. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games against AFC East opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Miami is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games against the Jets — and they have covered 4 straight times against them playing against them at MetLife Stadium. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Miami Dolphins (465) minus the points versus the New York Jets (466). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (302) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (301). THE SITUATION: Denver (2-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 32-23 loss at Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog. Indianapolis (1-2-1) looks to rebound from their 24-17 upset loss to Tennessee as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver had allowed only 36 combined points in their first three games before a desperate Raiders team exposed them for 32 points on Sunday. The Broncos have bounced back to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games at home after a loss on the road to a fellow AFC West rival. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. For the season, Denver is still only giving up 17.0 Points-Per-Game and 284.8 total Yards-Per-Game. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record on the road. Indianapolis gained 365 total yards in their last upset loss to the Titans last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards run their last game. And while the Colts have played all four of their Under the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing at least three straight Unders. Matt Ryan is struggling under center with his new team. Indianapolis is last in the NFL by scoring only 14.3 PPG — and they are generating just 339.8 total YPG. The Colts offense has not scored more than 20 points in a game all season.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are hit hard with injuries for this game being played on a short week. Denver will miss running back Javonte Williams — but at least they have Melvin Gordon along with capable veteran backups in Mike Boone and now Latavius Murray who they signed off the New Orleans practice squad. The Colts will be without running back Jonathan Taylor which is devastating for them since he may be the best back in the league — and backup Nyheim Hines is really more of a third-down back. Indianapolis is also dealing with some significant injuries on defense with linebacker Shaquille Leonard and safety Julian Blackmon out for this game. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow AFC rivals — and Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games for Thursday Night Football. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (302) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (280) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (279). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-2) looks to bounce back from an 11-10 upset loss at Denver as a 1.5-point favorite last Sunday night. Los Angeles (2-1) has won two in a row after their 20-12 win at Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: San Francisco was held back last week by a -3 net turnover margin on the road against the Broncos. Another full week of practice should help Jimmy Garoppolo get back up to speed with the offense after not even working with his teammates in the preseason after Trey Lance was given the starting quarterback job. He was solid last week by completing 18 of 29 passes for 211 yards with a touchdown and an interception — but some areas could be cleaned up. The 49ers have rebounded to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games after suffering an upset loss on the road as the favorite. Additionally, San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at Levi’s Stadium. Despite their losing record, San Francisco remains a very good team on both sides of the ball. They lead the NFL with only two three-and-out drives all season. On defense, they are the only team in the league to be holding their opponents to under 4.0 Yards-Per-Play. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow NFC West rivals. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after winning two games in a row. The Rams did allow the Cardinals to gain 365 yards in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after giving up at least 350 yards in their last contest. And while they averaged 7.5 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 6.5 YPP in their last contest. The reigning Super Bowl champions have been sloppy to start the season — they have seven giveaways in their three games. Matthew Stafford has been the main culprit with five interceptions already — and this comes off a year where he threw 17 interceptions which were tied for the most in the NFL (and remember he had four pick-sixes last year). The injuries are mounting up for the Rams as well. They will be missing two starting offensive linemen in left guard David Edwards and center Brian Allen — and this group had already taken a big step back with the retirement of left tackle Andrew Whitworth in the offseason. The defense is down several defensive backs including starting cornerback Troy Hill. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco swept the two regular-season meetings between these two teams — but they will be motivated to avenge their 20-17 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against the Niners — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at San Francisco. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on Monday Night Football. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (280) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (279). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (277) plus the point(s) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (278). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-1) looks to rebound from their 20-17 loss at Indianapolis as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (2-1) comes off a 14-12 upset loss to Green Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINT(S): We were on the Colts last week — and we were fortunate that Kansas City did not run away with that game. The Chiefs had several blunders on special teams including a muffed punt, a missed extra point, a missed 34-yard field goal, and a failed fake field goal attempt. Kansas City held Indianapolis to only 259 total yards — and they outgained them by +46 net yards despite only having their offense on the field for 26:28 minutes of that game. The Chiefs’ defense is playing quite well by holding their opponents to 21.7 Points-Per-Game along with 314.0 total Yards-Per-Game. They are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Kansas City has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Tampa Bay is getting healthy again at wide receiver with Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, and Russell Gage all expected to join Mike Evans on the field after he was suspended for last week’s game. But those injured players have not practiced this week so the passing game may not be in synch quite yet for Tom Brady. The Buccaneers have not scored more than 20 points this season — they are scoring just 17.0 PPG while averaging 297.3 total YPG. The issue for the Bucs is their beat-up offensive line. After the surprise retirement of All-Pro left guard Ali Marpet, the line is without Ryan Jensen, Aaron Stinnie, and Josh Wells — and Donovan Smith was limited in practice this week. They are using rookie Luke Goedeke at left tackle and the depth is razor thin. Tampa Bay cannot get their rushing game going as they have only gained 106 yards on the ground in the last two weeks after getting a mere 36 rushing yards last week. The Buccaneers do have a great defense that has only given up 27 points all season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. They are also 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams not giving up more than 17 PPG — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (277) plus the point(s) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (261) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (262). THE SITUATION: Seattle (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 27-23 upset loss at home to Atlanta as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (1-2) comes off a 28-24 loss at Minnesota as a 5.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: The Lions have become America’s Loveable Losers after appearing on HBO’s Hard Knocks — and gamblers are currently infatuated with them after they have covered the point spread in all three of their games this season. But this is a team that is decimated with injuries at their skill positions on offense. Running back D’Andre Swift along with wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown (who has been fantastic) and D.J. Chalk are all out for this game. Quintez Cephus and Josh Reynolds will be the starting wide receivers for Detroit in this one. Quarterback Jared Goff has played very well at home at Ford Field for the Lions — but he now faces a Seahawks team that is quite familiar with him during his time in the NFC West with the Los Angeles Rams. While he has a 6-4 record in his ten starts against Seattle, he has only thrown in touchdown passes and has 11 turnovers in those games. He has been sacked once every 19 pass attempts against a Pete Carroll defense. Detroit has been scoring points in bunches — the problem is that they are giving up even more points. The 31.0 Points-Per-Game they are giving up is last in the league — and they are also last in the NFL by giving up ten touchdowns in the Red Zone. All three of their games have seen at least 52 combined points scored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after playing three straight games where 50 or more combined points were scored. Seattle has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss — and they are a decisive 39-19-4 ATS in their last 62 games after a straight-up loss under Carroll. Additionally, the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two in a row. We had the Seahawks last week and lost the play — despite their outgaining the Falcons by a 420 to 386 yardage margin. A late penalty when Seattle was driving may have been the difference in that coin flip game. Now they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams who lack a winning record at home. And while the Seahawks have allowed 189 and 179 rushing yards in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after giving up 150 or more rushing yards in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit has not been favored by more than three points in over three years — and this remains a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 54 of their last 85 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (261) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (264) minus the points versus the New York Jets (263). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 29-17 loss at Cleveland as a 3.5-point underdog on Thursday, September 22nd. New York (1-2) looks to rebound from their 27-12 loss at home to Cincinnati as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS:                                    Pittsburgh was only on the field for 23:51 minutes last week against the Browns for that Thursday Night Football game — and that game was closer than the final score indicated with Cleveland scoring a final touchdown on a fumble recovery that they scooped into the end zone. The Steelers actually had a 14-13 lead at halftime. Now after pulling off their Week One upset at Cincinnati, Pittsburgh needs this game to even their record at 2-2. With the extra days off from last week to rest and prepare for this contest, expect a spirited effort from head coach Mike Tomlin’s group. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a double-digit loss to a fellow AFC North rival. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Mitchell Trubisky completed 20 of 32 passes for 207 yards in the loss with no interceptions. What was encouraging for Pittsburgh in this game is that he threw the ball downfield a bit more. While I am expecting Trubisky to embark on a Hall of Fame career anytime soon, this is a quarterback with a career 30-23 record as a starter. Frankly, I worry more about offensive coordinator Matt Canada — the Steelers need to get their talented receiving corps more involved in the game and trust Trubisky (something Tomlin called on after their loss to New England in Week Two). Now after that short week, I expect a better offensive plan — and I also expect Pittsburgh to lean into deploying Trubisky’s mobility. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in October under Tomlin. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home at the newly renamed Acrisure Stadium. The Jets get second-year quarterback Zach Wilson back under center after he was out for about six weeks with the knee he injured early in the preseason. In the short-term, New York is swallowing a downgrade at quarterback going from the veteran Joe Flacco to Wilson — especially since the former BYU quarterback has been not practicing after not playing in the preseason. This situation is compounded by the decimation this team has already faced with injuries on their offensive line. The Jets are already on their fifth and sixth-string offensive tackles (in a league where depth at tackle is already lacking — for the good teams). Wilson was raw last year after not playing in a pro-style offense in college. His 69.7 Passer Rating was the worst in the NFL. He played better late in the season — but he needed the preseason to continue his development. He still has issues with his mechanics, footwork, decision-making, accuracy, handling the pass-rush, and his decision-making. Did I forget anything? I understand why the Jets are putting him out there even with their significant issues at offensive line, they need to give him time to grow — but if they wanted to win games in the short-term, the veteran Flacco would be out there, even with his limitations in his 15th season. Are the Jets going to ask Wilson to throw the ball 52 times as they did with Flacco last week? That is a recipe for a disaster — the kid is going to make mistakes. Wilson was 3-10 as a starter last year with only nine touchdown passes and 11 interceptions. He was sacked 44 times behind a better offensive line — he got sacked every 9.7 pass attempts. New York has thrown the ball at least 45 times in each of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after attempting at least 40 passes in two straight contests. The Jets are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE:  The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at Pittsburgh. New York continues their rebuild after 11 straight seasons not making the playoffs versus a Steelers team that has not had a losing season under Tomlin. Maybe Wilson improves this season — but on the road with that offensive line after missing most of the preseason, it is going to be bumpy. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (264) minus the points versus the New York Jets (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (102) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (101). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (1-2) comes off a 27-12 victory in New York against the Jets as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (3-0) remained undefeated this season after their 21-19 upset victory at home against Buffalo as a 4-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS: Miami comes off the emotional high of beating the Bills just four days ago — and they are ripe for a letdown for this game on the road being played on a short week. It’s rookie head coach Mike McDaniel’s first game preparing his team to play on a short week for Thursday Night Football. Even more challenging is that the defense was on the field for a whopping 90 plays in the Miami heat. If the Dolphins were playing on Sunday, then the defensive players would probably not even be practicing on Thursday — but now they are playing another game on this quick turnaround. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games after upsetting a fellow AFC East rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after upsetting a division rival as a home underdog. With the Dolphins' offense only on the field for 19:20 minutes of that game, they got outgained by the Bills by a 497 to 212 yardage margin — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games on the road after getting outgained by 100 or more yards in their last game. Despite their 3-0 record, Miami is only generating 355.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have only gained more than 307 yards in one of their games. They are surrendering a whopping 413.7 total YPG — more than 76 YPG than they did last season when they ranked 15th in the NFL. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 45 games after allowing at least 400 YPG in their last three games including failing to cover the point spread just once in the last five circumstances when those conditions applied. Tua Tagovailoa has played great in the McDaniel offense getting the ball out to his playmakers — but he is far from 100% for this game dealing with a back and ankle injury. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range. Cincinnati was flat against Pittsburgh in their opening game before falling behind at halftime against Dallas by a 17-3 score in their second game. But in their last six quarters, they have looked like the team that reached the Super Bowl by outscoring their opponents by a 41-15 margin. They should build off their momentum from their victory last week as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing two of their last three games. And while their game with the Jets finished Under the 45.5 point Total, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after playing an Under in their last game. Despite Joe Burrow not playing in the preseason as he recovered from his appendectomy and despite the continuing problem with sacks with Burrow getting mauled for 13 sacks in the first two games of the season, this team would still be 3-0 if not losing both of their first two games on the final play of the game. Burrow only took two sacks last week — and he has four touchdown passes and no interceptions in his last two games. He completed 23 of 36 passes last week for 275 yards — and Cincy has covered the points spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The Bengals are outscoring and outgaining their opponents this year — and their defense has played well by allowing just 18.3 PPG and 310.7 total YPG. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a winning record. They enjoy a significant situational edge against a Dolphins team coming off an emotional high but likely to be gassed by the second half tonight. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (102) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (489) plus the point(s) versus the New York Giants (490). THE SITUATION: Dallas (1-1) looks to build off their 20-17 upset victory against Cincinnati as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-0) pulled off their second-straight upset win in a 19-16 victory at home against Carolina as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINT(S): New York opened their season with a 21-20 upset win at Tennessee in a game when they stole the game by converting a late 2-point conversion. But both of their wins have been by a combined four points. They were outgained by a 275 to 265 margin in yardage last week against the Panthers despite being on offense for 35:57 minutes of that game. The Giants averaged a meager 3.96 Yards-Per-Play last week. They only scored six points in the first half against Carolina after getting shutout in the first half against the Titans. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not scoring more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. Additionally, the Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. They return home where they are just 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 games at MetLife Stadium. New York has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow NFC East opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range. Dallas outgained the Bengals last week by a 337 to 254 yardage margin despite only having their offense on the field for 26:12 minutes of that game. While I am not buying the hype from the owner/general manager Jerry Jones about how good Cooper Rush is, it is hard to deny that he has been steady when given the opportunity to play under center for this team. He completed 19 of 31 passes for 235 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. In his five games last year which included one start, he completed 30 of 47 passes for 422 yards with three touchdown passes and only one interception. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore did a good job of helping to put Rush into a position to succeed by getting the ball to playmakers. Dallas has a great rushing combination in Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. The Cowboys go on the road for the first time this season — but they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games away from home. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games against NFC East rivals — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in September. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Rookie head coach Brian Daboll has done a nice job in motivating his team and getting them to believe in themselves — but I expect the bubble to burst tonight against a team with a better overall roster. Dallas has won nine of their last ten meetings with the Giants. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against them — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against them in the Meadowlands. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (489) plus the point(s) versus the New York Giants (490). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (488) plus the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (487). THE SITUATION: Denver (1-1) got their first win of the season with their 16-9 victory at home against Houston as a 10.5-point favorite. San Francisco (1-1) comes off a 27-7 win against Seattle as an 8.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLSU THE POINTS: The problem for Denver is getting their offense going under rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett. Denver is last in the NFL in Red Zone offense. They have yet to score a touchdown in their six Red Zone drives. They are scoring just 16.0 PPG — but they are generating 391.5 total Yards-Per-Game so moving the ball is not the problem. The Broncos are outgaining their opponents by +148.0 net YPG. Wide receiver Jerry Jeudy has been limited in practice sessions this week but it looks like he will attempt to take the field tonight. Denver ranked third in the NFL last year by allowing only 18.9 Points-Per-Game — so their continued good play on defense should continue. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 38 of their last 60 games on the road after a win by two or more touchdowns. They held the Seahawks to only 36 rushing yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games on the road after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last game. The 49ers did gain 373 yards of offense against the Seahawks last week with Jimmy Garoppolo playing most of that game after the injury to Trey Lance. Garoppolo was solid by completing 13 of 21 passes for 154 yards against a Seattle defense that did not game plan for him — and I do expect him to be rusty after not taking part in even the most basic of preseason practices with the team when the organization was planning on trading him. The Niners' game plan will be to run the football with them averaging 182 rushing YPG this year. But the offense will be without both Elijah Mitchell and rookie third-round draft pick Tyrion Davis-Price to injuries meaning Jeff Wilson will be the primary ball carrier. He averaged only 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry last year. San Francisco has held their first two opponents to 204 and 216 total yards this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Hollywood Sports regulars already know that I was not as high on Denver and Russell Wilson as others early in the season. But I think the hype train against their rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett has now gone overboard. Like Indianapolis and Tennessee earlier today, I expect the Broncos to have corrected a lot of their problems in this third week of the season — and I do not think it will be a seamless transition for the Niners back to Garoppolo after he was dumped and did not practice with the team in the offseason. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (488) plus the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (487). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (476) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (475). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-1) looks to rebound from their 36-27 upset loss at Detroit as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (2-0) has won their first two games of the season after their 24-7 victory against Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Washington is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss. And while they allowed 425 yards to the Lions, they are then 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. The Commanders did game 396 yards in the losing effort — and they are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Carson Wentz should be motivated to play at his best in this game in this revenge contest against the organization that drafted but then abandoned him. He is having a great season so far this year. He is second in the NFL by averaging 325.0 passing Yards-Per-Game — and his seven touchdown passes is tied for first in the league. Washington returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Philadelphia has been the talk of the league all week after their dominant win against the Vikings on Monday Night Football — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a short week on Sunday after a game on Monday. The Eagles are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a victory by 14 or more points. They are also 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Philly goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: Washington lost both games to the Eagles last season — but both games were played late in the season in December and January when Philadelphia had transitioned to their run-first heavy RPO system. It is a certainty that Washington head coach Ron Rivera dedicated hours and hours devising schemes to address this unique offensive attack — look for plenty of cornerback and safety blitzes from the Commanders to force Jalen Hurts into quick run/pass decisions this afternoon which is something Minnesota failed to do earlier this week. The Eagles are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against their fellow and familiar NFC East rivals. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Matinee with the Washington Commanders (476) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (472) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (471). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (0-1-1) looks to rebound from their 24-0 upset loss at Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (2-0) returns to action after their 27-24 win against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 4-point favorite for Thursday Night Football last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis has been a train wreck so far this season. They entered the fourth quarter of their opening game at Houston trailing by a 20-3 score before scoring 17 points in the fourth quarter to force overtime — but they fired their kicker when he failed to convert the potential game-winning kick in that game as they settled for the tie (ie: half-win). The Colts then managed only 218 yards in getting shutout last week against the Jaguars. Their -3 net turnover margin did not help their cause last week. All of the sudden, Matt Ryan looks old — he has four interceptions and been involved with five fumbles. Injuries have played a role with linebacker Shaquille Leonard out and the wide receiver corps depleted last week. The good news for head coach Frank Reich is that he expects both Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce to return to action after being out last week — so getting these targets back will help Ryan. While the 37-year-old’s arm strength has declined, he did still complete 67.0% of his passes last year for 3968 yards for a bad Atlanta team. After getting shutout last week, this is a “put-up or shut-up” game for this team. Look for the Colts to play their best game of the season against the Chiefs. This remains a team that was 9-8 last year while outscoring their opponents by +5.8 Points-Per-Game. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss to an AFC South rival. Additionally, the Colts have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. Furthermore, Indy is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. This team needs to show more urgency earlier in the game to not dig themselves a hole and require them to abandon Jonathan Taylor and their running game. The Colts only rushed for 54 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not rushing for at least 90 yards in their last game. After playing the first two games of the season on the road, Indianapolis returns home for their first game of the year at Lucas Oil Stadium where they are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games when an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Kansas City was in danger of getting upset at home last week before they picked off a Justin Herbert pass at the goal line and returned it 99 yards for the game-winning touchdown. That was a 14-point swing. The Chiefs got outgained, 401-319, in the victory. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a narrow win by a field goal or less at home. And while Kansas City has scored 71 combined points in their first two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. I don’t have many bad things to say about the Chiefs — as I expected, Patrick Mahomes is doing a great job spreading the ball around in the post-Tyreek Hill era. But stopping the run can be an issue for this team — they ranked 21st in the league by allowing 117.6 rushing YPG last year. The defense will be without linebacker Willie Gay for this game as he serves out a suspension. Defensive end Mike Danna did not practice on Thursday and is questionable to play with a calf — and he is one of the team’s best run defenders. Running teams like the Colts are the type of team that can give Kansas City problems. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They shave also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City just wants to leave Indianapolis with the win rather than cover the point spread — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games against teams with a winning record. The Colts have looked as bad as any team in the league in the first two weeks — but they still may have the best roster in the AFC South and this is an urgent situation for them. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (472) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (302) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (301). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (1-1) looks to bounce back from a 31-30 upset loss at home to the New York Jets as a 6.5-point favorite last week. Pittsburgh (1-1) looks to rebound from a 17-14 loss to New England as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland has allowed 27.5 PPG despite holding both opponents to 331.5 total YPG. They still have an outstanding defense that ranked 5th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 311.5 total YPG. JaDeveon Clowney will miss this game due to injury but Myles Garrett is expected to play after missing practice on Thursday. And despite not having the services of Deshaun Watson, the offense has been fine under veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett. The Browns are scoring 28.0 Points-Per-Game while generating 380.0 Yards-Per-Game after scoring 26 points in their opening game victory against Carolina. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 after losing at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. And while their first two games have finished Over the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing two straight Overs. The Pittsburgh offense is held back by an offensive line that is still a work in progress — and they are not getting challenging defenses with their vertical passing game under quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. The Steelers are scoring only 18.5 Points-Per-Game — and seven of those points came from a pick-six in their opening week upset win at Cincinnati. Pittsburgh has only managed two offensive touchdowns from the 255.0 total Yards-Per-Game they are averaging. Pittsburgh has played their first two games Under the Total — and not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after an Under but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing two straight Unders. They get outgained by -133 net yards last week against the Patriots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after getting outgained by at least 100 yards in their last game. New England passed for 252 yards against the Steel Curtain defense last week — and they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after giving up at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And in their last 7 games with a low Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland got swept by the Steelers in their two games last year — so preparing for this game so an urgent concern for head coach Kevin Stefanski. The Browns have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on Thursday Night Football. The reliable combination of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should make the difference in this game. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (302) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (292) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (291). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-0) comes off a 38-35 win at Detroit as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (1-0) defeated Green Bay by a 23-7 score as a  2.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia generated 455 total yards against the Lions with 215 of that production coming on the ground. Jalen Hurts completed 18 of 32 passes for 243 yards — and he added 90 yards on the ground on 17 carries with a touchdown. This season is the first year Hurts has had the same offensive coordinator for a second straight season since when he was playing in high school — don’t be surprised if he has a breakout season. The Eagles are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a game where they gained at least 150 yards rushing the football. Philly returns home where they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Minnesota may be due for a letdown after their emotional victory against their arch-rivals in the Packers. But the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Kirk Cousins had a great game against Green Bay by completing 23 of 32 passes for 277 yards — but Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. But here comes a prime-time game where Cousins tends to shrink in the national spotlight. He has lost nine of his eleven career starts on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing on Monday Night — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing the Eagles in Philadelphia. 10* NFL Minnesota-Philadelphia ABC-TV Special with the Philadelphia Eagles (292) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (291). Best of luck for us — Frank.

 At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (287) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (288). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-0) won their opener with a 19-10 upset win against San Francisco as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay looks to rebound from their 23-7 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Packers should be more effective on offense this week after Aaron Rodgers was ineffective in his first game playing without his security blanket Davante Adams. But Rodgers is clearly not comfortable with the two rookies the team drafted, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, and he does not have the same confidence in veterans like Sammie Watkins or Randall Cobb as he did with Adams. Unlike Patrick Mahomes who had his group of wide receivers spend time with him in Fort Worth, Texas to bond and develop some passing chemistry with him, Rodgers did whatever he does in the offseason that is away from football. His tough-love approach to freeze out Watson after he dropped a likely touchdown pass from a bomb from Rodgers in his first target in the game was not the best way to nurture his confidence. The passing game is going to be a work in progress for the Packers for a while. Granted, injuries played a role last week with both starting tackles, David Bakhtiari and Elton Jenkins, not playing and wide receiver Allen Lazard — perhaps the top receiver for the team this season — also out with an ankle. Lazard took part in practice but was limited on Friday — if he plays, he will probably not be 100%. It looks like Jenkins will play but not sure about Bakhtiari who was limited in his first practice this week on Friday. It’s still far from ideal for this team with their best players banged up learning to live life without Adams. Green Bay’s formula for success will be to run the football behind Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon — but the Bears know this. San Francisco stymied the Packers in the playoffs last year by keying on Adams and Jones. As he enters the “get off my lawn” stage of his career, Rodgers has not demonstrated that he is willing to give what the defense gives him. As it is, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a double-digit loss to a divisional rival. And while their defense allowed 395 yards to the Vikings last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. Chicago has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win at home. And while they got outgained by -127 net yards last week to the 49ers, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after getting outgained by at least 75 yards. And in their last 10 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range, they have covered the point spread 7 times — and they are 3-1 ATS in those circumstances when playing on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Despite their 6-11 record last year, the Bears only got outgained by -9.3 net yards last season. Green Bay only outgained their opponents by +37.4 net YPG last year — their 13-4 record overall was buoyed by a 6-3 record in games decided by one possession. The Rodgers-to-Adams connection played a large role in that overachievement. I’m not selling my Packers stock, long-term, but beating division rivals by more than a touchdown is a tough business — and I don’t think Green Bay is stable enough to get that done, especially when all they really want (and need) is to win the scoreboard. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (287) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (275) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). THE SITUATION: New England (0-1) looks to rebound from their 20-7 loss in Miami to the Dolphins as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh (1-0) comes off a 23-20 upset victory in overtime at Cincinnati as a 7.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England fell behind early and went into halftime trailing by a 17-0 score. One of those Dolphins’ touchdowns came from a fumble recovery on the Patriots' 2-yard line that they scooped a returned into the end zone. New England had a -3 net turnover margin. It was a disappointing effort — and the critics of Bill Belichick were quick to use this first game as evidence that he is past his prime. Look, I’m not a fan of Matt Patricia — but his impact as the team’s offensive coordinator is overblown. Belichick started as a wide receiver’s coach in the 70s. Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris coached the offensive side of the ball when on the Atlanta Falcons’ staff during the Dan Quinn era. Coaches like Belichick simply think that “coaching is coaching” — and that a defensive coach moving to the other side of the ball is akin to a prosecutor moving into private practice as a defense attorney. It is simply too early to pass judgment — especially when Belichick has declared on many occasions that he does not finish the installation of the offense each season until the end of September. So, let’s not overreact. New England has often struggled when playing at Miami. Tom Brady lost ten of his eighteen starts on the road against the Dolphins when playing for the Patriots. In those ten losses, New England scored just 17.5 Points-Per-Game and averaged 293.5 total Yards-Per-Game. In Brady’s trip to Miami in 2006, the Dolphins shut him out while holding him to 189 total yards. For the record, the Patriots finished 12-4 that season before losing to Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship Game. New England only ran the ball 22 times against the Dolphins — and the strength of this team will be them running the ball and leaning on their outstanding defense. The Patriots were second in the league by allowing 17.8 PPG. Belichick is not receiving enough credit for leading his team into the playoffs last year with a rookie quarterback. They outscored their opponents by +9.4 PPG with them generating 27.2 PPG and ranking 15th in the NFL by averaging 353.4 total YPG. It is telling that despite all the naysayers about this team this week, the bookies still list New England as the road favorite for this game. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a double-digit loss to a divisional rival. And while they held the Dolphins to just 65 rushing yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, New England has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Week Two of the regular season under Belichick — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored. We were on Pittsburgh last week — and it was great to see them benefit from a +5 net turnover margin including a 31-yard interception return for a touchdown. The Steelers got outgained by -165 net yards. It was a huge win for this team — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset victory as an underdog. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a victory by seven points or less. The Steelers only gained 267 yards of offense with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky averaging just 5.1 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. They allowed the Bengals to gain 432 total yards — and not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after getting outgained by at least 100 yards in their last contest. Now Pittsburgh returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. Furthermore, the Steelers will be without T.J. Watt who is on Injured Reserve after tearing his pectoral muscle last week.

FINAL TAKE: While Belichick tends to struggle on the road against the Dolphins, he has a great track record when coaching against Tomlin. New England has beaten Pittsburgh in five of their last six meetings with the average score being 30-18.7 — they have a +68 net point differential in those six games. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 trips to Pittsburgh. The last time New England began the season 0-2 was in 2001 which happens to the season Brady took over as the team’s quarterback. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (275) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (103) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (104). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-0) began the regular season with a 24-19 victory against Las Vegas as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (1-0) opened the season with a 44-21 win at Arizona as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory against an AFC West rival in their last game. The Chargers flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Raiders to just 320 yards of total offense. Linebacker Khalil Mack looked rejuvenated in a Chargers uniform after being signed in the offseason from Chicago. He joined linebacker Joey Bosa to combine for 16 hits on Las Vegas quarterback Derek Carr. I am expecting a significant bump in the play of this Los Angeles defense in the second season under head coach Brandon Staley. The team hopes to have free agent cornerback J.C. Jackson take the field tonight after he missed Sunday’s game with an ankle injury. The former New England star is one of the best cover corners in the league. Losing Keenan Allen to a hamstring injury is significant — but with the addition of Sony Michel who was cut by Miami, look for the Chargers to run the ball more with a rotation of Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley, Isaiah Spiller, and Michel. I definitely expect Staley to have his defense play a two-high safety zone that frustrated Patrick Mahomes last season. Inexplicably the Cardinals opted to play a single high safety and bring the blitz early and often against Mahomes last week. I like Arizona defensive coordinator Vance Joseph — but I would sure like to hear his rationale for bypassing the two high safeties and opting to blitz on 53% of the Chiefs’ dropbacks. Mahomes punishes the blitz. Opposing defenses found success against him by playing that two-high safety zone defense that takes away the deep ball. With Justin Herbert under center, the Chargers are consistently live underdogs — even on the road. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they are 36-16-4 ATS in their last 57 road games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in September. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Chiefs generated 33 first downs and controlled the clock for 34:42 minutes in their easy win against the Cardinals, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing a game where they gained at least 24 first downs and controlled the clock for at least 34 minutes. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Additionally, Kansas City kicker (and fantasy gem) Harrison Butker is out for this game — they activated Matt Ammendola from the practice squad to kick field goals and extra points (which does not hurt our case for the Chargers).

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers will not be intimidated playing at Arrowhead Stadium — they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road against the Chiefs including last season when they upset them by a 30-24 score as a 7-point underdog on September 26th. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (103) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). THE SITUATION: Seattle (0-0) begins the post-Russell Wilson era coming off a 7-10 season. Denver (0-0) begins their Russell Wilson era after finishing 7-10 last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Many pundits consider the Broncos as a Super Bowl favorite after their heavy investment in Wilson as their franchise quarterback. Yet this is a flawed football team that has endured five-straight losing seasons. There are depth concerns at wide receiver after Tim Patrick suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason. Wilson is getting a downgrade at wide receiver after enjoying the talents of Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. Jerry Jeudy did not have a touchdown pass last year and Courtland Sutton has failed to seize the mantle as a number one receiver for this team. The Denver defense is overrated with good frontline numbers bolstered by a ball control offense. The Broncos' offense under head coach Vic Fangio ranked 5th in the league by averaging 29.45 seconds per play last year. Their opponent’s average starting position was on the 26.0-yard line, the second-best mark in the league. Denver ranked 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 18.9 Points-Per-Game but they also lead the league by holding their opponents to just 16.2 drives per game. They ranked 8th in total defense — but the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders ranked their defense as 20th in the league which is probably a more accurate measure as to what to expect this season. Now a rookie head coach takes over the team with first-time offensive and defensive coordinators. Maybe this team makes a deep playoff run — but at the very least I expect some growing pains. Maybe Nathaniel Hackett will be an instant success — but I remain puzzled how he is the boy genius as the Green Bay offensive coordinator who gets none of the blame for the Packers' postseason issues while all the blame goes to Aaron Rodgers and head coach Matt LaFleur. Seems pretty convenient  — and Sutton and Jeudy were innocent victims of bad quarterback play. And, of course, Russell Wilson is the only reason why Seattle enjoyed nine-straight winning seasons with Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll holding him back from even more success because he simply would not “let him cook.” To buy into the Denver hype, one must be willing to assess all blame elsewhere. I’m skeptical that it is that simple. If Wilson has lost a step with his mobility and has to rely more on his dropback skills, he may not be quite as good as he was in the past. His size prohibits him from making certain throws on the field. That is not a death knell — Drew Brees was quite effective even in the latter years of his career. But Wilson does not have Brees’ accuracy. Wilson tends to not see open receivers and can be too “all-or-nothing.” Maybe that changes with a better offensive line — but he is adjusting to a new system. Yes, Wilson had input in the offense to have it tailored to his expectations — but that was exactly what we heard last year when Carroll hired Shane Waldron as his offensive coordinator from the Los Angeles Rams (Sean McVay! Sean McVay!). As it is, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when favored. And in their last 6 games on Monday Night Football, the Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS. Seattle needed the influx of young talent after years of decline in the quality on the roster. Wilson’s big contract did not help the organization’s ability to manage the salary cap. The Seahawks had their first top-ten draft pick in a decade in the spring — and they brought in several rookies who will make an impact tonight. Seattle had 9.3 wins using the Pythagorean model — so this was probably a better team than their 7-10 record suggests. They lost five of their eight games decided by one scoring possession. They outscored their opponents by +1.7 Points-Per-Game. Yes, moving to Geno Smith at quarterback is a downgrade to Wilson with the team likely to draft a rookie in the first round to become their franchise quarterback next year. But Smith did have a Passer Rating of 103.0 last year as compared to Wilson’s 103.1 Passer Rating (albeit playing through an injury). What Smith does offer is the elimination of any pressure to force the passing game to make the quarterback happy as has been the case in the past. Seattle is going to run the football and attempt to control time of possession — the formula that helped Denver produce their good defensive numbers in the past. Rashaad Penny rushed for 671 yards with seven touchdowns in his final seven games last year — and he averaged +2.1 yards-per-carry above the metrics expected yards-per-carry. The offensive line has been significantly upgraded with free agent Austin Blythe from Kansas City at center and two early draft picks in Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas joining the mix. The defense will be better simply by being on the field less. While the offense averaged only 56.1 plays per game, the defense was on the field for 70.6 plays per game. That -14.5 net difference was the 4th worst in the NFL since 1950. It is that dynamic that Carroll gets to address with Wilson gone. No, this is not a Super Bowl team — but the rebuild begins and this defense shapes up to be sneaky better than expected. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games as an underdog. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Wilson will feel some pressure returning to Lumen Field — and he is the one with Super Bowl expectations. Seattle has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in September — and no one knows Wilson better than Carroll who has had the entire offseason to prepare to defend against his former quarterback. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (480). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-0) comes off a 13-4 season after losing at home to the Los Angeles Rams by a 30-27 score in the NFC divisional round of the playoffs. Dallas (0-0) lost in the NFC wildcard round in a 23-17 loss at home to San Francisco.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has significant offensive line issues after former Pro Bowler Ali Marpet retired in the offseason and then center Ryan Jensen got injured during the preseason. But the Buccaneers still have All-Pro Tristan Wirfs at right tackle — and they signed Shaq Mason from New England to replace Market at guard in the offseason. Tampa Bay’s starting offensive line should still be fine — the bigger problem is the lack of any margin for error when it comes to injury since the depth has been depleted. It certainly helps to have Tom Brady under center who not only is one of the best ever with his footwork in his pocket but also has the veteran savvy to manage a pass rush. Brady missed much of the preseason for his mysterious mid-camp “sabbatical” — but the reports out of camp were that he was quite good in his abbreviated time with the team. This is a redemption season for Brady and this team after they seemed to lose focus last year after winning the Super Bowl. The Bucs were flat in the first half when hosting the Rams in the playoffs before almost pulling off a big rally in the second half. The sting of that loss and the reset this organization made by elevating Todd Bowles from defensive coordinator to their head coach should motivate this team. Brady will not have wide receiver Chris Godwin tonight — but he still has a loaded wide receiver room that added Julio Jones and Russell Gage in the offseason along with tight end Kyle Rudolph to complement Mike Evans and Scottie Miller. The Buccaneers’ defense should be outstanding after ranking 5th in the league by allowing 20.8 Points-Per-Game. Injuries played a role in their Super Bowl hangover last year — but this team still outscored their opponents by +9.3 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against NFC opponents. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Dallas has even more troubling offensive line issues. Left tackle Tyron Smith injured his hamstring in the preseason which will keep him out indefinitely — and the Cowboys have historically seen a significant dip in their scoring output when Smith is not available. Frankly, quarterback Dan Prescott is likely playing behind the worst offensive line since being drafted by Dallas. His early success with the team came with him playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Only right guard Zack Martin remains from those units (with Smith injured). They cut right tackle La’El Collins in the offseason. The Cowboys will be relying on rookie first-round draft pick Tyler Smith at left tackle — but he committed 12 penalties in his 12 starts for Tulsa last year. Jason Peters may eventually be their left tackle after he was signed off the street — but the 40-year-old is on the practice squad getting into shape. The Dallas wide receiver room lost two key contributors in Amari Cooper and Cedric Wilson in the offseason — and they will not have the injured Michael Gallup for this game. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. In Brady, I Trust for this one. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (475) plus (or minus) the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (476). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (0-0) comes off a 13-4 season where they lost to San Francisco in the NFC Divisional Playoff round by a 13-10 score. Minnesota (0-0) missed the playoffs after an 8-9 campaign last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: Don’t be surprised to see Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers come out with a chip on their shoulder in this game after an offseason where the team was being discounted after making the decision to not pay the big contract to wide receiver Davante Adams. Certainly, the Packers will miss his 123 receptions for 1553 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. But the Green Bay offense stalled at times last year even with Adams. Green Bay lost at home in the NFC Championship Game despite the 49ers failing to score an offensive touchdown. It was the second-straight time that Aaron Rodgers saw his team get upset at home at Lambeau Field in the postseason. Rodgers has won two-straight Most Valuable Player Awards, but he underachieved in the playoffs for the second-straight season. Since leading Green Bay to the Super Bowl twelve years ago, Rodgers has a 7-9 record in his 16 playoff games. Firing Mike McCarthy and bringing in a head coach who had lunch once with Sean McVay was supposed to be the solution for the Packers’ offense when they hired  Matt LeFleur in 2019. But despite a 39-10 regular season record, the offense has stagnated for this team in the playoffs. The now 38-year-old veteran seems to have become finicky in his later years in the league. His “trust” factor with his wide receivers seems to be much higher than it is for Tom Brady and Peyton Manning back in his day who both seemed to need to a few workout sessions before being comfortable in throwing the ball to (wide open) secondary targets. Of course, Brady and Manning are notorious for vigorous offseason programs designed to facilitate this trust and comfort. That’s not necessarily Rodgers’ thing. He seems to need years of experience and familiarity with his wide receivers before he develops trust. That helps explain why he drew a line in the sand last year for management to support his wishes by acquiring former Packer Randall Cobb as a free agent from Dallas despite his being on the wrong side of 30 years-old. Cobb caught 28 balls for 375 yards last year. It is easy to understand why Rodgers would key-on Adams. The now-former Packer has great hands with a huge catch-radius and runs very precise routes. But when it becomes clear to everyone — including the 49ers defense and the bettors backing the Packers in the NFC Championship Game — that Rodgers is either going to throw the ball to Adams, running back, Aaron Jones, or an occasional lob to the 37-year-old tight end Marcedes Lewis, good defenses are capable enough to stop that. Like a parent hiding the video game console to get their child to do their home work, Rodgers will have to find new receivers to move the ball downfield if he wants to counting to throw the football in 61% of their snaps. Allen Lazard has potential to step up as a primary option (although his availability is in question for this afternoon’s game). Second round pick Christian Watson from North Dakota State has demonstrated flashes of brilliance in college. Amari Rodgers is a second-year player from Clemson who was drafted with fanfare but only caught four balls last year. Sammy Watkins was signed as a free agent from Baltimore with still tremendous albeit unfulfilled upside. Cobb is still around, as is Jones and A.J. Dillon catching balls out of the backfield. Green Bay is going to run the ball and lean on their outstanding defense that may be the best group they had since their last Super Bowl. And Rodgers will throw the ball to open receivers from the schemes of LaFleur and his adjustments at the line of scrimmage. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in September. Minnesota was outgained by -19.8 net Yards-Per-Game last season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games at home. They have a rookie head coach in Kevin O’Connell who is implementing new schemes on both sides of the ball. I expect a bumpy road for this team out of the gates. And while I have heard the narrative that Minnesota will finally “Let Kirk Cook” regarding Kirk Cousins getting an offensive coach who will not hurt his feelings and make him feel insecure. But wasn’t that what he had in Washington with head coach Jay Gruden? How did that work out? Maybe the “You like that!” guy who put his team at risk for missing games last year by not getting vaccinated is exactly the type of player who needs some tough love rather than 100% affirmation? O’Connell comes from the Sean McVay school as the Rams offensive coordinator last year. How many interceptions did Matthew Stafford throw on Thursday (answer: three)? Maybe, just maybe, 100% positive reinforcement is the formula  for a ton of interceptions for guys like Cousins.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay will remember their embarrassing 38-3 loss to New Orleans in the opening week of last year’s season. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against NFC North opponents. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (475) plus (or minus) the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (476). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (461) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (462). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-0) begins the post-Ben Roethlisberger era coming off a 9-7-1 campaign where they made the playoffs but got soundly defeated at Kansas City in the AFC Wildcard round by a 42-21 score. Cincinnati (10-7) comes off their 23-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl.

THE SITUATION: Not many are giving the Steelers much of a shot this year with many publications picking them fourth in the AFC North with their season victory total topping out in the eight-win range. But Pittsburgh continues to have confidence and the resolve of a winning franchise that sets their own standards. They have not had a losing season in the 15 years under head coach Mike Tomlin. The reports out of training camp were that they were an angry and focused group looking to prove something after their three-touchdown loss to the Chiefs. They are the only team in the NFL to engage in tackling each and every day in practice during the preseason. The retirement of Roethlisberger provides the team the opportunity to reset themselves and look in new directions.  Offensive coordinator Matt Canada appears anxious to modernize the offense with plenty of quarterback run option plays  — something they can deploy with Mitchell Trubisky. I am not expecting Trubisky to play like a Hall of Famer. However, a year removed from his exit from Chicago does have him looking in a better light after the disastrous coaching job Matt Nagy did with Justin Fields last year. Remember, Trubisky had a career 29-21 record with the Bears despite Nagy. Pittsburgh also has a big edge in this opening game with the element of surprise since the Bengals lack game tape of how the new offense will operate. The Steelers have an underrated wide receiver room with Deontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, tight end Pat Freiermuth, and the preseason rookie phenol, George Pickens. With Trubisky under center, Pittsburgh has a quarterback with the arm strength to open up the vertical passing game — something Roethlisberger could not do in the twilight of his career. The defense should be a strength of the team. For the fifth straight season, they led the league in sacks. Despite dealing with a host of injuries, the Steel Curtain improved over the final six weeks of the season where they forced 17 turnovers. Pittsburgh loves spots like this where they are discounted — they are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games as an underdog. Furthermore, they are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games under Tomlin when an underdog against an AFC North rival. I thought Cincinnati should have won the Super Bowl if not for the ill-advised running back rotation of head coach Zac Taylor which convinced him to keep Joe Mixon off the field in crucial down-and-distance situations against the Los Angeles Rams. I love Burrow — but the offense was too often boom-or-bust which I think is a function of Taylor’s play-calling (one of many offensive “geniuses” head coaches who would better serve to let their offensive coordinator call plays so that they can full attention to the game management responsibilities of a head coach. The Bengals brass attempted to upgrade the offensive line with three free agent signings along with a fourth-round draft pick. The group should be better — but since Taylor is a Sean McVay disciple (save for relying on play-action which would have helped the suspect offensive lines of the past perform better), he did not play his offensive line together much in the preseason leaving cohesion issues against hostile competition still an issue. The Cincinnati defense was middling last year — they ranked 18th in total defense by allowing 350.8 total Yards-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is one of the best in the business in play design — but the talent of this unit remains a concern. They ranked 26th in passing yards allowed and 24th in the passing defensive DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. They ranked 26th in completion rate allowed which may be a problem against a Steelers’ offense that likes to get the ball to their speedy receivers in space to take advantage of YAC (yards after the catch). And then there is the fact that the loser of the Super Bowl has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of the last 22 opening weeks to the new season.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati dominated Pittsburgh in their two meetings last year — winning both games by a combined 65-10 score. Tomlin certainly used this as a constant reminder to his team in the preseason. The Steelers have still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against division rivals. Expect a close game. 25* AFC North Underdog of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (461) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (451) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (452). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (0-0) comes off an 11-6 season where they lost on the road at Kansas City by a 42-36 score in the AFC Divisional round. Los Angeles (0-0) are the reigning Super Bowl Champions after beating Cincinnati in the Super Bowl by a 23-20 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: The Bills are favorites in the betting market to win the Super Bowl this season with the expectation being that they will have a chip on their shoulder after their heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs when their defense allowed a game-tying field goal with just 13 seconds left in regulation. After Kansas City scored a game-tying field goal to force overtime, they won the coin flip and Patrick Mahomes did not let Josh Allen get the ball again by leading the Chiefs on a touchdown drive that ended the game — and prompted a change in the NFL overtime rules (by kicking the can on the inevitable “but why can’t the other team get one more chance” dilemma when removing the clock, even if for good reasons). Allen and the Bills’ offense should be loaded for bear this season. They were 3rd in the NFL last year by scoring 28.4 Points-Per-Game — and they were 5th by generating 408.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Allen was transcendent in the playoffs last year with nine touchdown passes and a Passer Rating of 149.0. The interesting thing about him is that he tended to save his best games for the national spotlight. According to the metrics at Football Outsiders, while he had a DVOA of 27.8% for the season overall, that mark rose to a 43.5% clip when playing in prime-time games on national television. Nine starters return on offense — and while offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is the head coach for the New York Giants, his quarterback coach and now offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey has been considered one of the brightest young offensive minds in the game. He should have more reliable weapons to compliment Stefon Diggs in the passing game this season. Gabriel Davis had a breakout game against the Chiefs in the playoffs with four touchdown catches. Buffalo added slot receiver, Jamison Crowder, from the New York Jets in the offseason. The Bills have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in September. Los Angeles returns to SoFi Stadium where they had the advantage of playing the Super Bowl against one of the weakest opponents in years (decades?) in the Bengals (apologies to Joe Burrow — and we covered with Cincinnati!). Cincinnati had a below-average offensive line and just a middle-of-the-road — but they still were in a position to win that game before head coach Zac Taylor bungled his play-calling and kept Joe Mixon off the field on crucial third and fourth downs. And remember that Matthew Stafford is not the new Baker Mayfield selling everything he can in advertisements (with his T-Mobile smirk dogging Detroit seemingly on perpetual loop) — if only the 49ers’ Jaquiski Tartt catches the wounded duck of a pass he threw up in the 4th quarter of the NFC Championship Game. Remember, Stafford led the NFL with 17 interceptions last year — and four were returned for pick-sixes. He becomes a national goat (the bad kind, not the G.O.A.T. kind) if Tartt catches that ball. This is a game defined by moments — and the Rams were beneficiaries of many fortunate breaks while winning their final three playoff games by just a field goal last year. Los Angeles only outgained their opponents by +27.2 Yards-Per-Game last year — and the roster has sustained some significant losses.

FINAL TAKE: It will be foolish to be committed to a “Fade Rams” campaign — it always is shortsighted to become an ideologue to these initial assumptions. Besides, we bet for or against numbers — not for or against teams. For this opener, I think it is the Rams who are overvalued against a Bills team not laying a field goal. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (451) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (102) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-7) advanced to the Super Bowl with their 27-24 upset win at Kansas City in overtime as a 7-point underdog on Sunday (January 30th). Los Angeles (15-5) joined them later that evening with their 20-17 victory against San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite. This game takes place in the Rams’ SoFi Stadium, making them the de-facto home team.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: The best player on the field in the AFC Championship Game was Joe Burrow. The stats say he completed 23 of 38 passes for 250 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He miraculously avoided defensive tackle, Chris Jones, twice on a crucial play to run for a first down in the second half — part of the 25 yards he added on the ground. But his biggest influence remains in his unwavering belief that he will lead his team to a victory. This is what he did at LSU — and he is already doing it in Cincinnati. It is time to jump on board — and the evidence is staring at us. The Bengals have nine games this season against teams who made the playoffs. They won and covered the point spread in 7 of those contests. They beat and covered the point spread twice against Kansas City, Las Vegas, and Pittsburgh — and they beat and covered the point spread on the road against the AFC top-seeded team in Tennessee (that beat Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, and these Rams in Los Angeles during the regular season). Furthermore, their two losses to playoff teams were against Green Bay and the 49ers by just a field goal in each occasion. The debate over whether or not this Bengals team is battle-tested is over. And while I was already sold on Burrow, the convincing case made by Cincinnati in their victory against the Chiefs was the play of their defense in holding Patrick Mahomes to just a field goal in the entire second half for the second time this month. The Bengals have not allowed more than 21 points in five of their last seven games — those two exceptions were against Kansas City in games where they still pulled off the victory. Cincinnati has now covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Additionally, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games if they are riding a point spread streak of at least three games (they enter the Super Bowl on a 7-0 ATS run). Cincinnati has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Cincinnati is a dangerous underdog playing with house money this early in Burrow’s career after entering the season with 150-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. Matthew Stafford, Sean McVay, and the rest of this Los Angeles team, on the other hand, have the weight of the world on them to win the Super Bowl. For the second straight season, a team will be playing in their home stadium for the Super Bowl — but I do not see the Rams enjoying the same advantage as the Buccaneers did last season. Los Angeles did not have the home crowd edge in their two games with the 49ers this month — it is highly unlikely they will have an overly partisan crowd advantage now. Staying at home in Los Angeles leaves this Rams roster full of big personalities with plenty of distractions that did not exist in Tampa Bay last year — and they do not have a Tom Brady providing executive leadership either. Playing at home may play into the pressure issues the Rams are already facing. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Regarding Stafford and his ability to handle pressure, if Jaquiski Tartt does not drop the wounded duck of a pass that he threw midway through the fourth quarter, the Niners might/probably win that game. The last time McVay had his team in the Super Bowl, they only scored three points in their 13-3 loss to New England in 2018. Looking at the team trends evidence, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after winning two games in a row. And while they have won six of their last seven games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Stafford did pass for 337 yards against San Francisco — but Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. The Rams played ten games against teams who made the playoffs this season — but they won only five of those contests (after winning three games in the postseason) while failing to cover the point spread in 6 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Underdogs have covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games in this postseason starting in the divisional round of the playoffs. While I don’t consider that actionable evidence by itself, I do think it is illustrative that this NFL season has consisted of flawed teams competing for the championship. I don’t think either of these teams would fare well against the recent Super Bowl winners — but maybe that assessment is still under-appreciating what the Bengals have accomplished. Cincinnati has the edge at quarterback. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bengals (102) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (324) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (323) in the NFC Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (14-5) won their fifth game in their last six with their 30-27 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. San Francisco (12-7) won their fourth straight game with their 13-10 upset victory at Green Bay as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: This is just a very tough set of circumstances for the 49ers. To advance to the Super Bowl, they have to pull off their fourth straight upset while playing their fourth straight game on the road. While I appreciate that the Niners are a veteran team that runs the ball and plays stout defense — two skill sets that tend to travel — the wear and tear of all that travel is bound to take a toll on San Francisco. They have a ceiling in their passing game with Jimmy Garoppolo, who had the opportunity to win a Super Bowl a few seasons ago if he could successfully execute Kyle Shanahan’s plays in the fourth quarter against Kansas City. Garoppolo only passed for 130 yards with no touchdown passes and an interception against the Packers last week — and the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. And while the Niners have not allowed more than 27 combined points in the playoffs, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 17 combined points in their last two games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games when favored by seven points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home with the Total in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Additionally. the Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams from the NFC — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has lost their last six games against San Francisco after following up their 31-10 loss on the road to the Niners on November 15th with their 27-24 loss in overtime at home in the final week of the regular season on January 9th. The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (324) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (323). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (322) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (321) in the AFC Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-5) won their 11th game in their last 12 contests with their 42-36 victory in overtime against Buffalo as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Cincinnati (12-7) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 19-16 upset win at Tennessee as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City’s ability to survive their instant-classic with the Bills should only embolden them to reach the Super Bowl for the third straight season. They should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win. And while they have covered the point spread in both their playoff games as a favorite this postseason, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after covering their last two games as the favorite. The Chiefs did surrender 422 yards to Josh Allen and the Bills — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Kansas City has a significant experience edge with this team playing in their fourth straight AFC Championship Game. It starts with Patrick Mahomes who owns an 8-2 record in the postseason with his two lone losses being to Tom Brady. In his eight playoff games at home, Mahomes is 7-1 with 23 touchdown passes, just one interception, and a Passer Rating of 120.5. In the playoffs this year, Mahomes is completing 76% of his passes for 782 yards with 10 touchdown passes and one interception in his two games. The early-season problems he was encountering with two-high safety looks are long gone. The emergence of two dangerous counter options to Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have helped. In the last five games, wide receiver Byron Pringle had 24 receptions from 33 targets for 232 yards with five touchdowns. Running back Jerick McKinnon has 33 touches for 220 yards in the two playoff games. And Mahomes brings two additional important intangibles to these playoff games. First, he is more likely to do damage with his legs. He ran the ball seven times for 69 yards against the Bills. In his ten playoff games, he has 52 rush attempts with a 5.8 Yards-Per-Carry average with five touchdowns — as opposed to the 3.8 rush attempts he averages per game in the regular season with only eight touchdowns in those 63 games. Second, Mahomes protects the football. He has thrown only one interception in his last 192 pass attempts. In his postseason career, he throws an interception once in every 77 throws and he has never fumbled. Kansas City hosts this game at Arrowhead Stadium where they will enjoy a significant home-field edge with a very loud crowd disrupting Joe Burrow. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 playoff games at home. Cincinnati is happy to be in this position — but they might impact their sense of urgency. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win. I love Burrow — but they beat a flat Titans team last week that was the lowest-rated number one or two seed according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. Cincinnati only outgained their opponents in the regular season by +5.1 net Yards-Per-Game. On the road, the Bengals are getting outgained by -18.1 net YPG despite playing only two playoff teams away from home in the regular season (and they got outgained last week to the Titans). Burrow was sacked nine times against the Titans with head coach Zac Taylor failing to change schemes to offer him more short or intermediate routes (or a screen pass!) rather than condemning him to yet another coverage sack. Cincinnati does not have a good offensive line. And I think the Chiefs’ have a significant advantage with Andy Reid along with his coordinators Eric Bienemy and Steve Spagnuolo. The Bengals are an organization that is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City will not take this Bengals team lightly after getting upset by them in Cincinnati on January 2nd by a 34-31 score as a 3.5-point underdog. The Chiefs blew a 14-point lead in that game while committing 10 penalties and too many mental errors in that game. Mahomes has won four of his five opportunities in the playoffs to avenge a regular-season loss to their opponent — and Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when avenging an upset loss. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (322) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (318) minus the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (317) in their AFC Divisional playoff game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-5) has won ten of their last eleven games after their 42-21 victory against Pittsburgh last Sunday as an 11-point favorite. Buffalo (12-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 47-17 win against New England as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: After an early-season slide where they lost four of their six games, this Kansas City team was driven to redeem themselves from losing in last year’s Super Bowl are clicking on all cylinders now. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Kansas City seized the better record over the Bills in the regular season which allows them to host this crucial showdown. Patrick Mahomes has won six of his seven starts at home at Arrowhead Stadium while averaging 310.3 passing Yards-Per-Game. He has thrown 20 touchdown passes to just one interception in his seven home playoff games while posting a 120.1 Passer Rating. Head coach Andy Reid will give him the green light to run the ball more given the winner-takes-all stakes of this game. The Chiefs’ defense has been tough at home as well as they hold their opponents to 17.9 Points-Per-Game and just 337.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games at home. The Chiefs have also found themselves yet another weapon on offense with the emergence of running back Jerick McKinnon. The former Vikings and Niners player had 18 touches for 143 yards from scrimmage against the Steelers last week while giving Mahomes a nice weapon in the screen passing game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Buffalo propped up their stats with some blowout wins (mostly against lesser opponents) this season. But they lost all five of their games decided by one-scoring possession — one of the biggest reasons why I side with Mahomes versus Josh Allen tonight. The Bills are just 1-3-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while they enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin last week against the Patriots, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. But now they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games after winning at least four games in a row. And while Buffalo has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Bills’ 38-20 upset victory in Kansas City on October 10th as a 2.5-point underdog. The Chiefs left many points on the field with many mental miscues and a few bad bounces that ruined drives. KC was also missing defensive stars Chris Jones and Charvarius Ward to injury in that game — and they had yet to acquire Melvin Ingram from Pittsburgh. After adding Ingram to their defensive line, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo moved Jones back to his preferred inside position on the line — and the defense immediately improved. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* NFL Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (318) minus the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (317). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (316) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (315) in their NFC Divisional playoff game. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (14-4) has won four in a row and eight of their last nine with their 31-15 victory against Philadelphia as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (13-5) won their sixth game in their last seven with their 34-11 victory against Arizona as a 3-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. And while their game with the Eagles finished just Under the 47.5 point total, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total in their last game. The Buccaneers get to host this game at Raymond James Stadium where they are 8-1 this season with a +16.1 net point differential. They score 33.0 Points-Per-Game and average 409.8 total Yards-Per-Game at home while holding their opponents to just 16.9 PPG and 328.9 total YPG. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And in their last 9 games after winning at least five or six of their last seven contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these games. The Rams will be without left tackle Andrew Whitworth for this game which will put pressure on Matthew Stafford without the All-Pro protecting his blindside. Los Angeles goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 45.5-49 range. Interestingly, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on grass.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (316) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (315). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (304) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (303) in their NFC Divisional playoff series. THE SITUATION: Green Bay (13-4) takes the field again after their 37-30 upset loss at Detroit as a 4-point favorite to close out their regular season on January 9th. San Francisco (11-7) won their third straight game and fifth of their last six contests with their 23-17 upset win at Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog in the wild card playoff round last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Even assuming that Jimmy Garoppolo is close to full strength with his nagging thumb and shoulder injuries that have kept him questionable to play all week, this is a very challenging set of circumstances for the 49ers. They have pulled off two straight upset victories in must-win circumstances after reaching the playoffs in Week 18 with their underdog win in Los Angeles against the Rams. This is the third straight game on the road for the Niners — and that is a ton of air travel for a team that has flown back home after their last two wins. Now San Francisco travels across the country east for the second straight week — albeit on a short six-day week as well. As it is, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing at least two straight games on the road. And while San Francisco has covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in their only three games in the last three seasons under head coach Kyle Shanahan when they had covered the point spread three games in a row. I do worry about an even 100% Garoppolo if asked to keep up with Aaron Rodgers tonight. How will he perform in weather conditions in the single digits and probably below zero with the wind chill? He struggles when put off script — he is completing just 54% of his passes in the second half in playoff games when off script with a low Passer Rating of 49 in those situations. Green Bay is rested and ready for the challenge — and they should be feisty after getting upset by the Lions. Granted, head coach Matt LaFleur rested starters in the second half of that game — but the Packers went into halftime trailing by a 17-13 score despite Rodgers playing the entire first half. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after getting upset in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Packers get some reinforcements back on defense with linebacker Za’Darius Smith and Whitney Mercilus and cornerback Jaire Alexander all expected to return to action tonight. The offensive line also gets starters David Bakhtiari, Billy Turner, and Josh Myers back from injury. Rodgers will not mind the frigid temperatures — he has a 29-1 record straight-up when the temperature is no higher than 32 degrees. Against playoff teams this season, Green Bay has a 5-0 record with Rodgers throwing 10 touchdown passes with only one interception. The Packers are 8-0 at home in Lambeau Field this season with a +15.8 net point differential. Rodgers has 20 touchdown passes and just one interception in those games with the offense scoring 30.6 PPG. The Green Bay defense has held their opponents to just 16.8 PPG. The Packers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Green Bay has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games at home.

FINAL TAKE: Dealing with the physical style of play that the 49ers bring to the table under Shanahan had been a problem for the Packers — highlighted by their 37-20 loss in the playoffs two years ago when they gave up 285 rushing yards. But that game was in San Francisco — and Green Bay has won both meetings with the Niners since including a 30-28 victory back at Levi’s Stadium on September 26th. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when motivated by revenge. 25* NFL Saturday Night Television Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (304) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (301) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (302) in their AFC Divisional Round playoff game. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (11-7) advanced from the AFC Wild Card playoffs with their 26-19 win against Las Vegas as a 6-point favorite last Saturday. Tennessee (12-5) returns to action after their 28-25 victory at Houston as an 11-point favorite on January 9th in their final regular-season game.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati should continue to build off the momentum they have built late in the season. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. And while they allowed 385 yards to the Raiders last week, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Second-year quarterback Joe Burrow has passed for 525, 446, and then 244 yards last week in his last three starts (he did not play in the Bengals’ final regular-season game against Cleveland). He has 10 touchdown passes and no interceptions in these last three starts — and completed at least 70.6% of his passes with at least a 110.4 Passer Rating in each of those three games. Burrow may have the best trip of wide receivers in the NFL with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd of the Bengals. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road as an underdog. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. Tennessee is on a three-game winning streak — but they were almost upset for the second time this season by the lowly Texans in their narrow three-point win to end the regular season. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. Tennessee only outgained their opponents by +12.7 net Yards-Per-Game. Their record was propped up by a 6-2 record in games decided by one possession. The analytics do not look at this team well. Not only do the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders consider the Titans the weakest top seed in the conference playoffs ever, but they also rank below all previous AFC or NFC playoff second seeds.

FINAL TAKE: I do take DVOA with a grain or two of salt. That metric does not attempt to incorporate Time of Possession finding it either too not relevant or difficult to measure its impact accurately. That is a problem when attempting to assess the value of a running team like Tennessee. And the Titans have not been at full strength on offense for most of the season. But Julio Jones has largely been a disappointment even when on the field this season — and there sure seems to be an assumption that running back Derrick Henry can simply flip the switch and immediately return to midseason form. I am skeptical he can be that good. I know that the Titans are 8-0 straight and ATS when head coach Mike Vrabel has at least eight days to prepare. But the Bengals have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. I’m siding on Burrow as an underdog against Tannehill. 10* NFL Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (301) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (151) plus the points versus the Los Angles Rams (152) in their NFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: Arizona (11-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 38-30 upset loss to Seattle as a 5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (12-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped with their 27-24 upset loss at home to San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Arizona took a step back in the second half of the season with five losses in their last eight games after an 8-1 start. I thought the Cardinals were overvalued after that fast start (and I am not the biggest Kliff Kingsbury fan) — but they are bit undervalued in this spot. Arizona was hit hard by injuries in the second half of the season including playing three games with quarterback Kyler Murray. The loss of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has hurt the offensive significantly — but it does look like defensive end J.J. Watt will be available to play some snaps tonight. The decline on defense corresponded to Watt’s shoulder injury. The pressure appears to be off this team — and that makes them dangerous. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Cardinals defense should play better after allowing the Seahawks (emboldened in the role of the spoiler in what Pete Carroll described as their “Super Bowl”) to generate 431 yards with a 7.70 Yards-Per-Play average. Arizona has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. And in their last 38 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 7.0 YPP, they  have covered the point spread in 27 of these contests. The Cardinals played their best football on the road where they were 8-1 with an average winning margin of +10.8 net Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s unit holds their home hosts to just 18.9 Points-Per-Game and 319.0 total YPG. They are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight road games as the underdog. Furthermore, Arizona is 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Cardinals had a 5-2 record against the playoff teams — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of these 7 games. Los Angeles only won twice in their seven games against playoff teams — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those 7 games against playoff teams. The Rams took a 17-3 lead into the first half last week against the 49ers before getting outscored by a 24-7 margin in the second half. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after taking a two-touchdown lead or more in the first half of their last game. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Despite pundits wanting to believe in the high-ceiling of this LA All-Star team, there are significant flaws. Matthew Stafford has demonstrated that perhaps he was not an innocent victim during his time playing for the Detroit Lions after committing nine turnovers in the last four games. He has thrown four pick-sixes this season — yet head coach Sean McVay continues to call plays that put his new shiny toy at quarterback in the best position to succeed. Stafford struggles against pressure up the middle — and that is an area where the return of Watt could make a big difference. The season-ending injury to Robert Woods has played a role in Stafford’s inconsistent play in the second half of the season. He has thrown 11 interceptions in since Week 10 — and his Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game has dropped a full yard to 7.6 YPA over that span. While Stafford was lighting up the league with a Passer Rating of 111.6 in the first nine weeks of the year, he only had a Passer Rating of 93.7 in the final nine weeks. A decline of the running game has not helped with Darrell Henderson going on Injured Reserve. Los Angeles has only ran for 73 and 64 yards in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after not rushing for more than 75 yards in two straight games. The defense has underperformed expectations as well. They allowed 449 yards to San Francisco last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They stay at home where, as Stafford’s wife will attest, they will not necessarily have a vociferous crowd advantage. Arizona fans will travel as Niners fans did last week. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games at home. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona upset the Rams in LA in the first meeting on October 3rd by a 37-20 score. Los Angeles won the rematch on December 13th in Glendale by a 30-23 score as a 3-point favorite. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games when playing on the road motivated to avenge a loss to their opponent. 25* NFL Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Arizona Cardinals (151) plus the points versus the Los Angles Rams (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (150) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (149) and in their AFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-5) won their ninth game in their last ten in a 28-24 win at Denver as an 11-point favorite on Saturday. Pittsburgh (9-7-1) has won two games in a row to sneak into the playoffs after their 16-13 victory in overtime at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh seemed resigned that their season was over after they upset the Ravens last week — but the Colts getting upset by the Houston Texans changed their playoff odds dramatically. Now Big Ben Roethlisberger and this Steelers’ team is playing with proverbial house money — but the casinos on the strip also give away “house money” for a reason. As it is, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and the have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. And in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 15 points in their last game, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these games. Pittsburgh lost five of their seven games against teams who made the playoffs — and they failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those 7 games. They got outscored in the regular season by -3.2 net Points-Per-Game — and they were outgained by -45.7 net Yards-Per-Game. The Steelers are also just 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 playoff games — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the Wild Card round. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a win against an AFC West rival - and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Kansas City has won six of their nine games against playoff teams this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against these playoff teams.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh will be looking to avenge a 36-10 loss in Kansas City on December 26th when they were 10-point underdogs. The Steelers are 2-3 ATS in their last 5 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss — so I am not assigning them much value on that front. The Chiefs have an extra day of rest to prepare for this game — and I expect the game script where Kansas City takes a lead and Roethlisberger will need to rally his team with his arm will produce the events where the double-digit point spread is covered. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (150) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (148) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (147). THE SITUATION: Dallas (12-5) enters the postseason having won four of their last five games after their 51-26 win at Philadelphia as a 6.5-point favorite last Saturday. San Francisco (10-7) has won two in a row and seven of their last nine contests after their 27-24 upset win at Los Angeles against the Rams as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas should build off the momentum they continued last week in their easy victory against an undermanned Eagles team. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread win. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Cowboys earned the right to host this game where they are outscoring their opponents by +14.3 net Points-Per-Game. The 49ers may be 6-3 on the road — but Dallas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games against NFC opponents. Dak Prescott has his offense clicking right now as they averaged 424.4 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and they Cowboys have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 400 Yards-Per-Game over their last three games. Prescott gives Dallas a significant advantage at quarterback in this game. He has thrown 13 touchdown passes without an interception in his last four starts. The 49ers primarily play cover-3 zone defenses — and Prescott has generated 30 explosive passing plays against zone defenses this season. Furthermore, Prescott has completed 97 of 174 passes for 1357 yards with 17 touchdown passes and just three interceptions against Cover-3 this year. His Passer-Rating of 106.4 against Cover-3 is the fourth best mark this season for all quarterbacks with a minimum of 100 pass attempts. Then there is Jimmy Garoppolo who continues to demonstrate a ceiling to his potential at quarterback. His 10 interceptions he has thrown out of play-action this season have been infuriating. And Jimmy G simply lacks a credible vertical threat for the 49ers. In his 33 passes of more than 20 yards in the air, he has completed 11 of them for 392 yards with three touchdowns but three interceptions. His Passer Rating of 71.8 on passes of 20 or more air yards ranks 28th in the league. Just as importantly when it comes to dictating defensive schemes. Garoppolo only throws it 20 or more yards in the air in 7.8% of his attempts. That number is tied with Tau Tagavailoa and just ahead of Andy Dalton and Daniel Jones in a neighborhood that does not smell of deep playoff run. Garoppolo did completed 23 of 32 passes for 316 yards last week against the Rams while leading the Niners offense to 449 total yards. But San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (143) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (144) in their AFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: New England (10-7) has lost three of their last four games after a 33-24 upset loss at Miami as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. Buffalo (11-6) won their fourth straight game with their 27-10 win against the New York Jets as a 16-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills enter the postseason feeling very good about themselves after holding the hapless Jets to just 53 total yards of offense. But Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread win. The Bills have also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after winning at least four games in a row. But the pressure is on this team and quarterback Josh Allen to reach the AFC Conference Championship Game — at least. Allen enjoyed his nest postseason last year — but remember that those games were played without packed stadiums. The weight of expectations could become heavy on Allen especially with this being a home game. In that respect, facing off against the Patriots in this opening round for the third time this season might very well be the worst-case scenario for this franchise. The Patriots’ defense was tough to score against especially on the road they allowed only 16.0 PPG and 284.1 total YPG. Bill Belichick has had great success in frustrating Allen in his career. Allen completes only 57.1% of his passes against New England in his career while averaging just 215.9 passing YPG and a QBR of 82.7. Allen has not been great in his career in cold weather despite his college experience at Wyoming and his strong arm. His career completion percentage of 62.3% drops to 50.3% in his five games played in below-freezing temperatures. He averages only 166.6 passing YPG in those games with six touchdown passes and seven interceptions. Belichick should have the Patriots ready to play in this game. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. New England is a tough opponent in the playoffs under Belichick — they have covered the points spread in 10 of their last 14 postseason games including four of their last five playoff games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: While it will not be as windy as the first game between these teams in Buffalo, it will be colder with temperatures dropping into the single digits. Belichick out-coached Sean McDermott in that game — it is hard to match his big-game experience when dealing with the elements like what will be experienced tonight. The Patriots have a situational edge with Belichick calling the shots — expect him to channel the Bill Parcels philosophy of letting the other guy start making coaching mistakes. New England has covered the point spread in 33 of their last 50 games when avenging a loss. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 trips to Buffalo. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots (143) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (142) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (141) in their AFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (10-7) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 21-16 loss at Cleveland as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. Las Vegas (10-7) won their fourth game in a row with their 35-32 upset victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: Las Vegas benefited from Chargers’ head coach Brandon Staley misreading analytics by taking silly chances like going for it on 4th-and-2 on their own 18-yard line to pull the upset last week. Coaching mistakes like that helped the Raiders overcome getting outgained by 94 net yards — but a +2 net turnover margin helped even that game as well. The result had a feel of Las Vegas winning their Super Bowl by giving the home fans their first taste of the playoffs since the club moved from Oakland — made all the sweeter given all the turmoil this team has encountered this season starting with the removal of Jon Gruden as their head coach. An emotional letdown is likely — especially for a team that has pulled off three straight upset wins to reach the playoffs. All four of their games during their current winning streak were decided by just a field goal — and they have benefited from a 7-2 record in games decided by one scoring possession including a 4-0 mark in games that went to overtime. In other words, the Raiders are a few breaks going against them from being an 8-9 (or worse) football team. There were outscored by -3.8 Points-Per-Game this season — and they were outscored by -4.1 PPG when playing on the road. And on the road this teams goes under very challenging circumstances coming from a long overtime game on Sunday Night Football to the opening playoff context on Saturday afternoon — and they have to travel across the country to boot! As it is, Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after upsetting a divisional rival as a home underdog. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a close win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after covering the point spread in each of their last three games. They go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games after winning four or five of their last six games. Weather will be a factor with temperates expected to drop below freezing with a chance of snow. Quarterback Derek Carr has played five games when the temperature was under at 37 degrees or less: he lost all five games with the Raiders never scoring more than 17 points. Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow grew up in Ohio — so he is used to the cold weather. Burrow comes into this game rested after the Bengals clinched home field in the opening round of the playoffs two weeks ago. Their team dominated by second-stringers still were competitive against the Browns — and Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: These teams played in Las Vegas on November 21st when the Bengals scored 19 points in the fourth quarter to pull away with a 32-13 victory. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 61 when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points — including six of these last nine circumstances. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bengals (142) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (481) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (482). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (9-7) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 34-13 win against Denver as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Las Vegas (9-7) is on a three-game winning streak after their 23-20 upset win at Indianapolis as an 8.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders come off two straight upset wins after they beat Denver at home by a 17-13 score as a 1-point underdog two weeks ago. Las Vegas has benefited from some favorable opponent quarterback situations during their winning streak. They beat a Cleveland Browns team ravaged by COVID three weeks ago who had to resort to three-stringer Nick Mullens at quarterback. They faced Broncos’ backup quarterback Drew Lock two weeks ago — and they then got Carson Wentz not at 100% last week after the unvaccinated quarterback returned from his inevitable case of COVID. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a narrow win by a field goal or less on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least two games in a row. Las Vegas got outgained in yardage by the Colts, 362-326. The Raiders have been fortunate with a 6-2 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They are getting outscored by -4.2 Points-Per-Game on the season. They only managed to rush for 85 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game. Las Vegas has not been an effective team on offense — especially after Jon Gruden was let go by the franchise. The Raiders rank 25th in Third Down Percentage and 29th in Red Zone Scoring. They expect to play tight end Darren Waller and running back Josh Jacobs who are both listed as questionable — but it remains a question how effective they can be playing through their injuries. Las Vegas is scoring only 18.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 332.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and they have scored more than 17 points just twice in their last eight games. They are 4-4 at home despite getting outscored by -4.4 PPG. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Los Angeles has scored at least 28 points in five straight games. Since Week 11, the Chargers lead the NFL in total offense and rank second in scoring. They are scoring 30.3 PPG and averaging 395.3 total YPG in their last three games. Second-year quarterback Justin Herbert leads the NFL in third-down effectiveness — and that includes Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC West opponents — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games in January. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against the Raiders.

FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas wants to avenge a 28-14 loss to the Chargers in Los Angeles on October 4th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least 14 points. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Chargers (481) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (482). Best of luck for us  — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (472) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (471). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (8-8) is on a five-game losing streak after their 20-19 loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Pittsburgh (8-7-1) has won two of their last three games after their 26-14 upset win against Cleveland as a 1-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Both of these teams have slim playoff hopes still alive — the winner of this game needs Indianapolis to get upset by Jacksonville as a two-touchdown underdog. That is not likely to happen, of course. And it sure looked like the Steelers put everything into their Monday night win against the Browns in what was Ben Roethlisberger’s likely last game at home in Heinz Field. An emotional letdown appears imminent. As it is, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Pittsburgh is just 2-5 on the road with an average losing margin of -9.6 Points-Per-Game. They allow their home hosts to score 29.6 PPG and generate 398.0 total Yards-Per-Game. I have little doubt that head coach John Harbaugh will have his team ready to play. The Ravens want to end their losing streak — and they would love to end Roethlisberger’s career with a loss. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. It will be Tyler Huntley under center with Lamar Jackson still nursing his ankle injury. The backup has played well in Jackson’s absence — he has completed 67.5% of his 162 passes with 955 passing yards and another 222 rushing yards on a 6.3 Yards-Per-Carry average in six games. Baltimore is 5-3 at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh won the first game between these two teams by a  20-19 score as a 4-point underdog on December 5th. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss. 25* AFC North Game of the Year with the Baltimore Ravens (472) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (469) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (470). THE SITUATION: Dallas (11-5) had their four-game winning streak snapped with their 25-22 upset loss at home to Arizona as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (9-7) is on a four-game winning streak after their 20-16 win at Washington as a 6.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Injuries and COVID plays a defining role in this game — but it is Philadelphia that is impacted more heavily. The Eagles have 11 players on the COVID list. Running back Miles Sanders is out with a hand injury — and Philly may only have rookie Kenneth Gainwell healthy and available in their backfield tonight. Right tackle Lane Johnson is dealing with a knee - and Jalen Hurts is less than 100% with an ankle injury. Given that Philadelphia has already clinched a wildcard spot in the NFC playoffs but they cannot secure a home game next week and have little idea who they will be playing, rookie head coach Nick Sirianni may opt to rest key players including Hurts. As it is, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row. And while Philadelphia has only allowed 26 combined points in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. This is the 4th time this season that the Eagles are playing at home as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of those games. Dallas has some COVID issues themselves most notably with rookie sensation Micah Parsons out for this game. Running back Tony Pollard is questionable with a foot injury — and Ezekiel Elliott has been saddled with a knee injury for much of the season. Wide receiver Michael Gallup is out the season with a torn ACL. But Dallas still has quarterback Dan Prescott along with wide receivers Cee Dee Lamb and Amari Cooper. And the Cowboys have plenty to play for despite having clinched the NFC East title when ensures them no worse than the fourth seed. Losses by Tampa Bay and the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday would put the Cowboys in the position to take the second seed in the NFC playoffs — so head coach Mike McCarthy needs to play for the win tonight. Dallas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games when they are favored. Furthermore, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points — including seven of these last nine occasions. Dallas has covered the point spread in 8 of their 11 games this season when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. And in their last 5 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, the Cowboys have covered the point spread all 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games against NFC East opponents — and Philadelphia is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against divisional rivals. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against the Eagles in Philadelphia. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Dallas Cowboys (469) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (132) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (131). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-7-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 36-10 loss at Kansas City as a 10.5-point underdog last Sunday. Cleveland (7-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-22 loss at Green Bay as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh still has a narrow path to make the playoffs — but the chances are remote so the weight of playoff expectations are not likely to be heavy. Instead, tonight’s game is being viewed as Big Ben Roethlisberger’s final game at home at Heinz Field. It should be a wild and emotional night for the fans and the team that will want to send out the future Hall of Fame a winner. Roethlisberger loves playing against his childhood team. Big Ben has a 24-2-1 against the Browns in his career with 42 touchdown passes and just 22 interceptions. He has a career Passer Rating of 94.2 against the Browns. Even better, the Steelers have a perfect 14-0 record at home against Cleveland under head coach Mike Tomlin. They should play well tonight after getting handled by the Chiefs last week. Pittsburgh has covered the point speed in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by at least 21 points. The Steelers fell behind early and went into halftime with a 23-0 score — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after trailing by at least 14 points at halftime of their last game. Pittsburgh had a -2 net turnover margin in that game as well — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Steelers should also play better defense — they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game. Pittsburgh does get back T.J. Watt back on defense — and they have a 7-2 straight up record this season when Watt plays at least 60% of the snaps on defense. The Steelers are 5-2 at home this year — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored at home by up to three points. Cleveland may be flat after getting eliminated from the playoff race after yesterday’s results. As it is, the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a loss on the road. And while Cleveland has covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after covering two of their last three games. The Browns stay on the road where they are just 2-5 this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the last two weeks of the season. They are also just 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 games against AFC North opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be motivated to avenge a 15-10 loss at home to Pittsburgh on October 31st. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with same-season revenge — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (132) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (129) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (130). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (7-8) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 30-23 loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (12-3) is on a four-game winning streak with their 24-22 victory against Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: It has been a mystifying season for Minnesota with all eight of their losses decided by one-scoring margin — and they have held a lead at one in each of those games. But the Vikings have been consistently resilient under head coach Mike Zimmer. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 43 of their last 62 games after a straight-up loss. The Vikings will have to rely on backup Sean Mannion at quarterback with Kirk Cousins out after a positive COVID test. Minnesota is going to rely heavily on running back Dalvin Cook who was removed from the COVID list and will play tonight — but he will be running against a Packers run defense that ranks second-to-last in the NFL by allowing opposing rushers to average 4.8 yards-per-carry. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Despite enjoying a +4 net turnover margin at home last week against the Browns, the Packers only managed to gain 311 yards in their narrow victory against a Cleveland team hit hard by COVID. Aaron Rodgers completed 24 of 34 passes but for only 202 yards. Green Bay needs to tighten up on defense after allowing the Browns to gain 408 total yards in that game. They seized an early lead and took a 21-12 advantage into halftime before only scoring a field goal in the second half. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning their last game as a favorite but failing to cover the point spread as a favorite. And while Green Bay will be motivated to avenge their 34-31 loss at Minnesota where they were a 1-point favorite, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging an upset loss to their opponent.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Mike Zimmer has had success slowing Rodgers down in his coaching career. Zimmer has led Minnesota to a 6-4-1 record against the Packers in his last 11 games as head coach of the Vikings. Getting 13 or so points in a divisional rivalry is a ton -- especially for this talented Minnesota roster that plays everybody close. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (129) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (481) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (482). THE SITUATION: Miami (7-7) won their sixth straight game last Sunday in a 31-29 victory against the New York Jets as a 10.5-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (7-7) won their second-straight game with their 9-0 upset win at Tampa Bay as an 11.5-point underdog last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: If the Dallas Cowboys (unfortunate, for us) blowout victory against Washington last night re-affirmed to me, it is to not underestimate the physical, mental, and emotional toll COVID outbreaks have on teams. Not that we should become zombies to simply fade teams dealing with significant outbreaks — and good luck finding matchups where only one team is dealing with that problem — but it is certainly a factor. We hope that Omicron is resulting in milder cases, but we just don’t know yet (the “analytics” are too early to evaluate). And we think professional athletes are in the best position to overcome. But dudes are still getting sick for a few days. A momentum swing like an early interception (as from last night) can play into the game script putting one team on defense for an extended period — and then suddenly a team dealing with the challenges and complications from COVID all week can find themselves on their heels. New Orleans has 20 players out because of COVID including quarterbacks Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian. On defense, stalwarts in linebackers Demario Davis and Kaden Ellis along with strong safety Malcolm Jenkins who all played important roles in shutting out Tom Brady last week are now out as well. Head coach Sean Payton is on to his fourth-string quarterback in rookie Ian Book. The former Notre Dame star is an interesting project — but he left South Bend with a ceiling to his talents and there is a reason that there was little to no consideration of using him at quarterback up until tonight despite all the attrition at this position starting with the season-ending injury to Jameis Winston. In the preseason, Book completed 9 of 16 passes for 126 yards and an interception. Payton is an offensive wizard — but Book lacks Hill’s mobility to run the “Cam Newton Carolina” offense and his passing skillset is similar to Siemian’s but without the NFL experience. The Saints have Alvin Kamara back — but the Dolphins are likely to put eight men in the box to slow him down and dare New Orleans to beat them with Book’s arm (with a suspect receiving corps still missing Michael Thomas). Besides all that, the Saints are in a letdown spot after the shocking shutout victory against the Buccaneers. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win as an underdog of six or more points against an NFC South rival. The Saints have covered the point spread in their last two games but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering point spread expectations in two of their last three games. New Orleans benefited from a +2 net turnover margin against Tampa Bay — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 56 home games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Saints return home where they are just 1-4 this season while getting outscored by 27.8 Points-Per-Game and surrendering 402.0 total Yards-Per-Game. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread 14 of their last 22 home games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 38 point range. The Saints also remain without their starting tackles with Ryan Ramczyk out with COVID and Terron Armstead still dealing with a knee injury. That is not a good sign for a team that ranks second to last in the league over the last six weeks in Expected Points Added per snap on offense. Miami’s defense leads the NFL during that span in Expected Points Allowed per snap. Admittedly, the Dolphins have been feasting on the lesser teams in the league with less than ideal quarterback situations — but this is a team that is confident with a formula for success. And this team is pretty healthy with few COVID cases. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a victory at home. They had covered the point spread in five straight games before their narrow win over the Jets last week - and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points. Tua Tagovailoa has found a rhythm under center as of late — he has completed 100 of his 129 passes in his last four games for a 77.8% completion percentage with 943 passing yards, seven touchdown passes, and just three interceptions. And while Miami allowed just 228 yards to the Jets last week, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games under head coach Brian Flores in December. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is on the Miami Dolphins (481) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (479) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (480). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-8) lost their second straight game in a 27-17 loss at Philadelphia as a 10-point underdog on Tuesday. Dallas (10-4) won their third straight game with a 21-6 victory in New York against the Giants as an 11.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM PLUS THE POINTS: Washington is a tough out under head coach Ron Rivera. The Football Team has covered 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the second half of the season. They did allow 519 total yards to the Eagles on Tuesday — but they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They stayed competitive against Philadelphia with their +2 net turnover margin — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after owning a +2 or better turnover margin in their last game. Washington managed only 237 yards in that game with Garrett Gilbert signed just days earlier as an emergency quarterback. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after not gaining more than 350 yards in their last game. The good news for the Football Team is that starting quarterback Taylor Heinicke and backup Kyle Allen have been cleared off the COVID list to play tonight. Dallas is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. But injuries are slowing this team down on offense. The biggest loss is Tyron Smith at left tackle — he might be the most important player on the team outside of Dak Prescott. Running back Ezekiel Elliott has been slowed with injuries this season. The Cowboys do get running back Tony Pollard back tonight but it remains a question how effective he will be with his foot injury. Dallas has not scored more than 27 points in four of their last five and six of their last eight contests. They did benefit from a +3 net turnover margin against the Giants last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning the turnover battle in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys won the first meeting between these two teams just two weeks ago in a 27-20 victory in Washington on December 12th. The Football Team has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when motivated to avenge a loss at home to their opponent. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Washington Football Team (479) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (468) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (467). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (7-7) has won two in a row after their 17-9 win at Chicago as a 7-point favorite last Monday. Los Angeles (10-4) has won three in a row with their 20-10 win against Seattle as a 7.5-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a challenging situation for the Rams traveling east to play in Minnesota on a short week — made all the worse with a COVID outbreak on the team. Star left tackle Andrew Whitworth is out to significantly impact an offensive line that was already dealing with COVID issues. As it is, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by 10 or more points at home. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning three of their last four games. And while the Rams have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. Minnesota only needed 193 yards of offense in their victory against the Bears on Monday. The Vikings have still covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 home games as an underdog. They will be without running back Delvin Cook who is on the COVID list — but backup Alexander Mattison is more than capable in his absence. The team does get back wide receiver Adam Thielen who was out last week on the COVID list.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. Don’t be surprised if the Vikings pull the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but take the points) Underdog Special with the Minnesota Vikings (468) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (467). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (456) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (455). THE SITUATION: Arizona (10-4) has lost two straight games after their 30-12 upset loss in Detroit as a 13-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (8-6) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 27-17 win against New England as a 1-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS MINUS THE POINTS: The Cardinals have now suffered two straight upset losses after beginning last week with a 30-23 upset loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams as a 3-point favorite on Monday Night Football. Arizona has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after getting upset in two straight games as the favorite. The Cardinals have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Arizona has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 14 points in the last game. The Cardinals did generate 398 yards in the losing effort to the Lions — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Indianapolis has won two games in a row after their triumph against the Patriots last Saturday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after winning two games in a row. The Colts have covered the point spread in their last two games as well as four of their last six games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in two games in a row and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The defense for Indianapolis has played great during this stretch as they have only allowed more than 17 points once in their last six games. But the Colts did give up 284 passing yards to the Patriots and Mac Jones last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Indianapolis gained only 275 yards in that game with 226 of them coming from their rushing attack. It will be difficult for Indy to replicate that performance on the ground tonight with them missing three starting offensive linemen. Quenton Nelson and Mark Glowinski are on the COVID list while Ryan Kelly is taking personal time after the death of his child. The pressure will be on Carson Wentz to make plays with his arm after he completed only five passes in his 12 attempts for 57 yards last week. The Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not passing for more than 100 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Arizona NFL Network Special with the Arizona Cardinals (456) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (452) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (451). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (9-5) lost their third game in their last four in a 19-13 loss at Pittsburgh as a 1-point underdog on December 19th. San Francisco (8-6) has won five of their last six games after a 31-13 win against Atlanta as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: The Titans went into halftime with a 13-3 lead against the Steelers but did not score in the second half in their loss last week. A -4 net turnover margin spoiled Tennessee winning the yardage battle by a 318 to 170 margin. They did rush for 201 yards in the setback with D’Onta Foreman running the ball 22 times for 108 yards — and that is a good sign for this team if they can avoid fumbling the ball three times like they did last week. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Titans have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road. Injuries have depleted the skill position players on offense — but the running game is still functioning even without Derrick Henry and after getting wide receiver Julio Jones back last week, wide receiver A.J. Brown is expected to return to the field this week after dealing with a chest injury. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 58 games on the road after a win by at least 14 points. And while they have covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Titans are dealing with injuries on their offensive line with three players out including two starters — but they can move some players around to still form a capable starting five which will now likely include their second-round draft pick, Dillon Radunz. The Niners are dealing with several missing pieces on defense including recent injuries to two of their starters at linebacker (and Dre Greenlaw has been declared out). I concluded the impact of the losses still offers us value relative to the line.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco travels east on a short week to Nashville — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 appearances on Thursday Night Football. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Tennessee Titans (452) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (337) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (338). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-8) has won two games in a row with their 33-13 win at Houston as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (9-4) has won two games in a row after their 30-23 upset victory at Arizona as a 3-point underdog last Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: After struggling initially after his faster-than-expected return from a finger injury, Russell Wilson has regained his old form after completing 17 of 28 passes for 260 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the win against the Texans. Wilson is completing more than 70% of his passes with a Passer Rating of 109 in his last three starts. He has averaged 246 passing Yards-Per-Game in those contests with six touchdown passes and just one interception. The Seahawks are 35-17-3 ATS in their last 55 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. While this game was originally postponed because of a COVID outbreak in the Rams’ locker room, it is now Seattle that has been hit harder with positive cases. The Seahawks are without a handful of players including wide receiver Tyler Lockett, running back Alex Collins, cornerback D.J. Reed, and right tackle Brandon Shell. The absence of Lockett hurts but Wilson still has D.J. Metcalf as a prime target. The loss of Collins is not as big a deal with the emergence of running back Rashaad Penny who rushed the ball 16 times for 137 yards last week. The line has moved to account for the players Seattle will not have tonight — but they still have Wilson who usually makes them dangerous underdogs. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Seattle has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. The Seahawks have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. Seattle is also a dangerous dog since they protect the football — they are tied for the fewest giveaways in the league. The national punditry seems to believe the Rams have solved all their problems after beating and covering the point spread in their last two games against Jacksonville and the Cardinals last week. We had LA against Arizona in that game — but the Rams have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a win by at least 14 points. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. Furthermore, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 15 points in their last game. Consistency has not been a hallmark for this team under head coach Sean McVay. And problems remain — a +2 net turnover margin helped them overcome betting outgained by 89 yards to the Cardinals. Arizona generated 447 yards against them — and the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 home games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Los Angeles still has many players out on the COVID list including starting tight end Tyler Higbee — but they do expect to get Von Miller back.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored. 25* NFC West Underdog of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (337) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (338). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (332) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (331). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-9) lost their second straight game win a 45-30 loss at Green Bay as an 11.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (6-7) won their third game in their last five contests with a 36-28 victory against Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday Night Football last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago has lost seven of their last eight games — but they have the opportunity to play the role of spoiler tonight. The Bears have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games after not covering the point spread in three straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after not covering the point spread in four straight games. Chicago has suffered -4 and -3 net turnover margins in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games at home after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. They host a Vikings team that is just 2-5 on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Despite two interceptions last week, rookie quarterback Justin Fields has played well as the Bears’ starting quarterback. He completed 18 of 33 passes for 224 yards with two touchdown passes and another 74 rushing yards. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their last game at home. The Vikings have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game at home where both teams scored 24 points. And while Minnesota has played four straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after playing at least four straight Overs. They allowed the Steelers to gain 375 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Vikings have gained 426 and 458 yards in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 375 yards in their last game. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a losing record. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on Monday Night Football — and Kirk Cousins has lost nine of his ten starts in prime-time. The Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on Monday Night Football. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 meetings with Minnesota — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to host the Vikings at Soldier Field. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (332) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (330) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (329). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (10-3) won their fourth straight game with their 33-27 victory against Buffalo as a 3.5-point favorite last week. New Orleans (6-7) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 30-9 win at New York against the Jets as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a victory. The Buccaneers have scored at least 30 points in all four of their wins on this streak — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in at least three straight games. Tampa Bay is a perfect 6-0 at home with an average winning margin of +19.0 Points-Per-Game — so I am comfortable laying double-digits. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games - and they habit veered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. The Buccaneers do have Vita Vea back on their defensive line who helps them become very tough to run on. Tampa Bay is third in the NFL by allowing only 91.2 rushing YPG — it will be a challenge to run the ball against this team without a credible passing attack. The Saints’ pass attack has averaged only 180 YPG in their last three games with a low 5.9 Yards-Per-Attempt average and a 55.4% completion percentage. The Bucs will be able to put eight defenders in the box in this rematch. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread win. A big concern for New Orleans in this game is their anemic offensive under quarterback Taysom Hill. The Saints are scoring only 17.7 PPG while averaging 313.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams from the NFC.

FINAL TAKE: The Halloween meeting between these teams was a game that Jameis Winston started but got injured in before Trevor Siemian came off the bench to play one of his best games in his career in unusual circumstances. Brady will be motivated to make a statement in these revenge circumstances — and the Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as a double-digit favorite. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (330) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (329) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.