At 3:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (279) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (280). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-4) has lost two games in a row as well as three of their last four contests after their 30-24 upset loss to Tennessee in overtime back on November 22nd. Pittsburgh (10-0) remained unbeaten this season on November 22nd with their 27-3 win at Jacksonville as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: Baltimore enters this game with their backs against the wall with a losing streak, limited practice time, and several players out because of injury. Lamar Jackson, Willie Snead IV, Mark Andrews, and Matthew Judon are not expected to be removed from the COVID list at noon PM ET today. Defensive linemen Brandon Williams and Calais Campbell are out with injuries along with offensive linemen Ronnie Stanley and D.J. Fluker. Yet asking the Steelers to cover a double-digit point spread even under these conditions is probably too much to ask against a bitter divisional rival. The Ravens surrendered 436 yards in their loss to Tennessee while getting outgained by -117 net yards. Yet Baltimore has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 350 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after getting outgained by at least 100 yards in their last game. The Ravens hopes to get J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram back off the COVID list this afternoon for this game. Baltimore will run the ball plenty in this game to burn time off the clock — they rushed the ball 47 times for 265 yards even with a healthy Jackson in the first meeting between these two teams. While the Ravens lost that game by a 28-24 score as a 4-point favorite, they outgained the Steelers in that game by a decisive +236 net yards but were undone by a -3 net turnover margin. QB Robert Griffin III can still move the football with his legs — he rushed for 50 yards in his start against Pittsburgh in Week 17 last season. The Ravens go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games —and they are 31-14-6 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record at home under head coach John Harbaugh. Pittsburgh does struggle with complacency at times — they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games as a double-digit favorite. And while the Steelers have covered the point spread in eight of their ten games this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in at least eight of their last ten games. Pittsburgh gained 373 yards in their win over Jacksonville last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. While the Steelers are not facing the same attrition as the Ravens, they will be without running back James Conner who is on the COVID list. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games against AFC North foes — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Pittsburgh against the Steelers. Look for the Ravens to keep this game close. 10* NFL Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Baltimore Ravens (279) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (276) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (275). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (3-6-1) has lost two games in a row with their 22-17 loss at Cleveland last Sunday as a 2.5-point underdog. Seattle (7-3) snapped a two-game losing streak two Thursdays ago with their 28-21 win over Arizona as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia needs a win — and they have been facing adversity all week given the struggles on quarterback Carson Wentz. The Eagles have not covered the point spread in their last two games either — but they have then covered the point spread in 40 of their last 60 home games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Philadelphia has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after losing two of their last three games. The Eagles are playing better defense as of late. They have allowed 19.3 PPG over their last three games along with just 323.7 total YPG which is over -6 PPG and -19.0 net YPG below their season averages. Five of the Seahawks’ seven wins have been by one scoring margin — so they have not been blowing teams out. They are just +0.2 PPG when playing on the road while allowing 30.4 PPG and getting outgained by -20.2 net YPG. The Seahawks have not been a reliable road favorite under head coach Pete Carroll as they have failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 73 games away from home as a favorite up to 7 points. Head coach Doug Pederson tends to see his team perform well against powerful offensive teams. Seattle is scoring 31.8 PPG while averaging 400 total YPG this season — but the Eagles have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 29 PPG and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games against teams who average at least 375 YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles will have double-revenge on their minds as well after losing twice to Seattle last year by identical 17-9 scores — including in the NFC wildcard playoffs. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Eagles (276) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (274). THE SITUATION: Chicago (5-5) has lost four games in a row after their 19-13 loss at home to Minnesota back on November 16th as a 3.5-point underdog. Green Bay (7-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 34-31 loss in overtime at Indianapolis as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago scored only 6 points in the first half against the Vikings after not scoring in the first half of their last game against Tennessee — but this organization has covered the point spread in a decisive 53 of their last 83 gams after not scoring more than a touchdown in the first half in two straight games. The Bears managed only 149 total yards against Minnesota with just 124 of these yards in the air. Chicago has then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to gain at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. Nick Foles was knocked out of that game last week with a hip injury that will keep him out of this game. Mitchell Trubisky will be the starting quarterback in this game — and I think he should play better than he did earlier in the season. Trubisky has nothing to lose now so the pressure should be off. This will also be his first start with offensive coordinator Bill Lazor calling the plays since he took over those responsibilities two games ago for head coach Matt Nagy. Don’t be surprised if Trubisky is more active with his legs. The team will get running back David Montgomery back for this game as well which will be a big help — he leads the team with 472 rushing yards. Playing Green Bay may help since they are last in the NFL in Red Zone defense with opposing offenses scoring in 97% of their trips inside the Packers’ 20-yard line this season. The Bears’ defense should keep them in this game. They are 9th in the NFL by allowing 340.1 Yards-Per-Game — and they are holding their opponents to 20.9 PPG. Chicago has not allowed more than 96 rushing yards in seven straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in at least two straight games. Chicago has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against fellow NFC North opponents. Green Bay blew a 28-14 lead last week against the Colts — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after owning a two-touchdown or better halftime lead in their last game. Aaron Rodgers completed 27 of 38 passes for 311 yards in that game — but the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Green Bay has averaged 6.8, 6.7, and 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in three straight games. Now the Packers return home where they have struggled in their last two games with a narrow 24-20 win over lowly Jacksonville and getting upset by the Vikings by a 28-22 score. Perhaps the team misses the fans in Lambeau Field? There will be an audience of up to 500 tonight consisting of friends and family — but that will not accomplish much regarding the energy level in the stadium. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Rodgers is just 6-12-1 straight-up in his last nineteen starts again teams with a top-ten defense. And while he is leading an offense that is third in seventh in total yardage, Chicago has won eight of their last eleven games when facing a top-ten offense. A Bears’ victory pulls them within one game of first place of the Packers in the NFC North — expect a close game. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (260) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (259). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (4-6) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 31-28 upset loss to Dallas as a 7-point favorite. Carolina (4-7) comes off a 20-0 shutout victory over Detroit last Sunday as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has been very reliable when picking themselves up off the mat after a loss under head coach Mike Zimmer as they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 51 games after a straight-up loss. The Vikings have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games are a narrow loss by 6 points or less. Minnesota has been playing much better football as of late — and they still have an outside shot to make the playoffs. They have held their last three opponents to just 21.3 PPG along with 315.3 total Yards-Per-Game despite last week’s results. The Vikings have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Kirk Cousins played well last week as he completed 22 of 30 passes for 314 yards with two touchdown passes and join interceptions. Running back Dalvin Cook has been sublime this season (when healthy) — he rushed for 115 yards with a touchdown on 27 carries last week. Minnesota gained 430 yards in the losing effort to the Cowboys — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Vikings are scoring 27.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging 434.0 total YPG. Wide receiver Adam Thielen is out for this game with after a positive COVID test but I expect this to be the Cook show on the ground against a defense that allows opposing rushers to average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Minnesota stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Carolina is likely due for a letdown after their dominant performance against the hapless Lions. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while they held Detroit (with an injured Matthew Stafford who had not practiced all week) to just 185 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Carolina is averaging only 332.0 total YPG in their last three contests — and they will be without running back Christian McCaffrey who was declared out with a shoulder injury for this game. The Panthers snapped a five-game losing streak with their win over the Lions — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after losing at least four of their last five games.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in November under Zimmer’s leadership. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (260) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (259). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (123) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (124). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-7) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-9 victory over Cincinnati as a 2-point favorite. Dallas (3-7) ended a four-game losing streak last week with their 31-28 upset victory at Minnesota as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM PLUS THE POINTS: One good game from the Cowboys has everyone jumping on their bandwagon — even though they were outgained by the Vikings last week by -54 net yards. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Even after scoring 31 points last week, the Cowboys are averaging only 19.7 PPG along with 335.0 total YPG in their last three games. Dallas also surrendered 430 yards to the Vikings last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Cowboys are last in the league by allowing 31.8 PPG — and they are surrendering 36.8 PPG at home along with 396.2 total YPG. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and the Cowboys have long been Fool’s Gold when favored at home as they have failed to pay off those winning tickets in 46 of their last 78 home games laying the points. Additionally, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games as a favorite. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. And while the Football team has only covered the point spread once in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Despite their losing record, Washington is outgaining their opponents by +8.2 net Yards-Per-Game. They have lost all three of their close games decided by one scoring possession. They are winless on the road despite outgaining those opponents by +19.0 net YPG. The Football Team has been the best pass defense in the league that is holding their opponents to just 195 passing YPG. Led by rookie defensive end Chase Young, Washington is tied for third in the NFL with 32 sacks. The offense should turn the ball over less with the veteran Alex Smith under center. While his mobility is not the same as it was before his leg injury last year, he is finding his rhythm as a passer again. Smith has thrown for 325 and 390 yards in his previous two games before completing 17 of 25 passes for 166 yards in the winning effort last week. The Football Team is averaging 397.0 total YPG in their last three games with Smith starting under center. And while the Cowboys are allowing 6.1 Yards-Per-Play this season, the Football team has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 25 games against teams that allow at least 6.0 YPP.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 trips to Dallas to play the Cowboys — and the underdog has covered the point spread in 28 of the last 41 meetings between these two teams in this rivalry. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Football Team (123) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (473) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-3) has won two of their last three games with their 23-16 win against Seattle as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (7-3) has won four of their last five contests with their 46-23 victory in Carolina last Sunday as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game against the Seahawks — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of the last 7 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Rams also generated 389 yards of offense in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Quarterback Jared Goff is only completing 62.8% of his passes on the road as compared to his 71.4% mark when playing at home — but he is averaging 7.7 Yards-Per-Attempt on the road versus his 7.5 YPA mark when at home His Quarterback Rating declines dips from a 97.2 mark at home to a 93.2 mark on the road — so perhaps the conventional wisdom that Goff has disparate home/road splits is a bit overplayed? He will not have his rock at left tackle in Andrew Whitworth who is out at least six weeks with a knee injury. But Los Angeles can lean on their elite defense that leads the league in points allowed (18.7 PPG), total yardage (296.4 YPG), Yards-Per-Play allowed (4.78), and opponent’s Passer Rating (81.0). This defense travels — they are holding their home hosts to just 276.2 total YPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road with the total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Additionally, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they are just 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while the Buccaneers outgained the Panthers by +357 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 200 yards. I don’t love this situation for Tampa Bay. Head coach Bruce Arians identified that his team was “really tired” having played ten straight weeks with a bye. Arians gave the team three days off which may help — but it is certainly not an advantage. The Bucs have also been listless in prime-time games with a 1-2 record with their lone win being their listless effort to begin the month at home against the Giants where they only won by a 25-23 score. Tampa Bay beats up on the bad teams in the league — they are 7-0 against teams with a defense ranked outside the top-ten in yards allowed while averaging 35.8 PPG in those contests. But they are winless in their three games against teams with a top-ten total defense while averaging just 15 PPG. Quarterback Tom Brady has been sacked 14 times this season — with nine of them occurring in their two games against New Orleans and their game against Chicago which accounts for their three losses. Led by Aaron Donald, the Rams began the week tied for second in the NFL with 31 sacks. Brady passed for 341 yards against the Panthers — but the Bucs are just 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining at least 250 passing yards in their last game. They return home to Tampa Bay where they are just 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to 7 points. Furthermore, the Buccaneers are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angels will also have revenge on their minds after getting blasted at home to the Buccaneers with Jameis Winston last year by a 55-40 score despite being a 9-point favorite in that September 29th game. That result may not matter much to Brady but it does to head coach Sean McVay and this Rams team. The Bucs are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games in November. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (473) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (471) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (8-1) has won four games in a row after their 33-31 win against Carolina two Sundays ago as a 10-point favorite. Las Vegas (6-3) has won three straight games with their 37-12 victory against Denver last week as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City should build off their momentum as they are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Chiefs surrendered 435 yards to the Panthers in their winning effort last week, they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 4-0 with an average winning margin of +13.2 PPG while outgaining these opponents by +89.8 net YPG. Kansas City is 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as the favorite. Of course, this situation also has head coach Andy Reid coming off a bye week — and his teams at KC and Philadelphia have gone 24-4 in his career with the bye week to prepare. His teams have covered the point spread in 19 of those 28 games. I tend to think that intangible may no longer translate into point spread value since it is so well-documented — but it doesn’t hurt! Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a straight-up win — and they have to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games after a win. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Las Vegas benefited against the Broncos with a +5 net turnover margin. The Raiders are getting outgained this season by -7.8 net YPG despite their winning record. Las Vegas has covered the point spread in all three games of their winning streak — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs’ lone loss this season was their 40-32 setback at home to the Raiders as a 10-point favorite on October 11th. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 straight games when avenging an upset loss. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (471) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (476) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (475). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-6) has lost two straight games after their 37-12 loss at Las Vegas last Sunday as a 3.5-point underdog. Miami (6-3) has won five straight games after their 29-21 win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday as a 1.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: We have taken Denver the last two weeks to only get burned by the inconsistent play of Drew Lock — so I endorse this after much trepidation. But simply, it will be the regret that I never forget if we do not fade the Dolphins in this spot — more on that below. On the Broncos side of the ledger, they should play better after Lock’s four turnovers helped produce a -5 net turnover margin in that loss to the Raiders. Denver has rebounded to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They also have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. And in their last 16 home games after a loss by double-digits to an AFC West foe, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 13 of these games. Additionally, Denver has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points. Miami is SO due for a visit from the Regression Gods after winning and covering the point spread in five straight games. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in five straight games. Miami is getting it done from smoke and mirrors and special teams and defensive touchdowns. They had been outgained in their previous two games before outgaining the Chargers by 7 yards after their 280-yard output last week. The Tua Tagovailoa offense is averaging just 245.7 total YPG which would get someone like Kirk Cousins lambasted if not complemented by all the mistakes the opposition has been making. The Dolphins are being outgained by -53.9 net YPG this season — and in their three games, since Tagovailoa took over, they have been outgained by -149.6 net YPG. That is not a typo.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49.5 point range. Denver is injured — and I am not sure if it is good or bad that Lock has been upgraded to probable with his rib injury. Trust the process with this one — especially with the Dolphins’ odds moving to them laying more than a field goal on the road. I am not going to be surprised if the Broncos pull the upset — but take the points for insurance. 20* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Denver Broncos (476) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (406) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (405). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-3) looks to bounce back from their 23-17 upset loss at New England as a 7-point favorite last week for Sunday Night Football. Tennessee (6-3) also looks to rebound from a 34-17 loss at Indianapolis on Thursday Night Football last week where they were a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a revenge situation for Baltimore, who got clocked by the Titans in the AFC Divisional round last year at home by a 28-12 score despite being a 10-point favorite. Derrick Henry ran right over the Ravens’ defense with 195 rushing yards in that game. After having the interior of their run defense exposed like that, Baltimore signed defensive linemen Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams to shore up that part of their defense. Problem solved, right? Unfortunately, injuries will keep both of those players out for this game. So, fade the Ravens then, right? Well, not so fast. Sure, I wish those players were available — but it was not just Henry that did in Baltimore in that playoff game. QB Lamar Jackson committed three turnovers in that game, while the Ravens failed to convert on several 4th down opportunities that played a significant role in shifting the momentum of that game. If Lamar plays better — and the offense executes at a higher level — then Baltimore should take the Titans out of the position where they can pound the rock to Henry. The Ravens are outscoring their opponents by +8.8 PPG due to their strong defense that is holding their opponents to just 18.3 PPG along with 323.0 total YPG. Baltimore’s defense is even stingier at home where they limit their guests to only 17.8 PPG along with just 312.3 YPG. Additionally, the Ravens have held their last three opponents to 289.3 total YPG. They outgained the Patriots last week by +49 net yards but they lost the turnover battle and weather played a major role in that game. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in November. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an AFC South rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. And while the Titans surrendered 293 passing yards to the Colts, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. This Tennessee has regressed from that playoff game last year — they are allowing 398.1 total YPG this season. They are also dealing with a host of injuries themselves with potentially six starters out including defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and wide receiver Adam Humphries. Despite their 6-3 record, the Titans are being outgained by -24.8 net YPG this season. Over their last three games, they are being outscored by a touchdown while managing only 321.0 YPG which has translated into just 20.3 PPG. Now they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. One final thing about this Titans team that should always be considered: they are simply a hot mess on special teams, especially with their punter and placekicker. A +10 net turnover margin is the reason why this team has overcome poor special teams play and losing the yardage battle to their opponents. But those turnover Gods are a fickle beast.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC rivals — and the Ravens have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against AFC foes. I don’t love the injury situation for Baltimore — but it is not great with Tennessee either. The bottom line is that I will regret not investing in this situation at a 25* level. Let’s attack! 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (406) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (405). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (322) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (321). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-3) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 23-16 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 3-point underdog. Arizona (6-3) has won four of their last five games after their 32-30 win against Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle should respond with a strong effort tonight. They are a decisive 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an NFC West opponent. They are also 12-5-2 ATS in their last 19 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 51 of their last 83 games after losing two games in a row. And while Seattle has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Injuries have hit this team hard. I did not make a call on this game until Thursday, given the potential attrition to tonight’s roster. Cornerbacks Quinton Dunbar and Shaquille Griffin along with running back Chris Carson are not expected to play. Starting center Ethan Pocic is also out tonight as he continues in the concussion protocol — and that is significant. But head coach Pete Carroll does expect backup center Kyle Fuller to play after the high ankle sprain he suffered on Sunday. That development was essential for me to endorse the Seahawks tonight. Carroll also expects wide receiver Tyler Lockett and running back Carlos Hyde to play as well. Quarterback Russell Wilson needs to reduce his turnovers after being responsible for seven in the last two games. Seattle has lost the turnover battle in these last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 36 of their last 55 games after having a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. The Seahawks defense is worst in the league by allowing 448.3 total YPG — but this unit has been playing better despite the losing streak. They have held their last three opponents to 386.7 YPG which is more than 60 YPG below their current season average. Safety Jamal Adams has been injured but he did return to register seven tackles with two sacks and a forced fumble against the Rams. The Seahawks have also recently acquired defensive linemen Carlos Dunlap and Snacks Harrison who should both improve the pass rush and run defense for this team. Seattle returns home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the total set at 49.5 or higher. The Seahawks are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November. Arizona needed the miracle Hail Mary play from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins to steal that victory over the Bills last week. Yet the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a win at home where they did not cover the point spread. Arizona is also dealing with a host of injuries — especially on their defensive line which makes me a bit less concerned about the Seattle offensive line. Defensive end Zach Allen went on the Injured Reserve with an ankle injury — he is the fourth defensive linemen to get placed on the IR for this team. Nose tackle Corey Peters is already out the season with a knee and Pro Bowl linebacker Chandler Jones is on the IR with his biceps injury. Now defensive end Jordan Phillips has been declared out with a foot injury for tonight. This Cardinals defense has declined as of late (they really miss Jones). They are allowing 32.7 PPG over their last three games along with 417.7 YPG with all three of those opponents scoring at least 30 points. Arizona has gained at least 438 yards in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 375 yards in their last game. And while they have rushed for at least 159 yards in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a Thursday night — and Seattle is 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games played on a Thursday night. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (322) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (275) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (275). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (3-5) has won two games in a row after their 34-20 win at home against Detroit as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Chicago (5-4) has lost three straight games after their 24-17 loss at Philadelphia as a 6.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago outgained the Eagles by +147 net yards in the losing effort last week. They limited Philadelphia to just 228 yards while generating 375 yards of offense. The Bears have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Turnovers are killing Chicago as they have lost the turnover battle in each of the games in their three-game losing streak. But the Bears have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 home games after losing the turnover battle in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 23 games after enduring at least a -1 net turnover margin in at least three straight games. Chicago returns home where they have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 65 home games after losing two games in a row. They are also 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 home games as an underdog. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning at least two games in a row. Minnesota benefited from a +3 net turnover margin against the Lions — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after having at least a +3 net turnover margin in their last game. The Vikings defense has been a disappointment all season — they are allowing 29.3 PPG while surrendering 412.9 total YPG. Detroit gained 421 yards against them last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are getting outgained by -24.0 net YPG. Kirk Cousins will be making his tenth start on Monday Night Football where he has lost all nine previous games — and Minnesota failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against the Bears — and they have failed to cover the points spread in 14 of their last 17 games at Soldier Field. With the temperatures dropping into the low-40s, lets fade the road favorite dome team playing in cold weather. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (275) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots  (274) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (273). THE SITUATION: New England (3-5) snapped a four-game losing streak on Monday with their 30-27 victory over the New York Jets as a 9-point favorite. Baltimore (6-2) has won four of their last five games after their 24-10 win at Indianapolis last Sunday as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road against an AFC East rival. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after losing four of their last five games. And in their last 5 games played on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football, New England has covered the point spread in 4 of these contests. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Additionally, New England has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in November. Baltimore covered the point spread in their upset win over Indianapolis — but that was just the first time in their last three games that they met point spread expectations. The Ravens have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. And in their last 5 games when favored, Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: It is not often that a Bill Belichick-coached team is an underdog in Gillette Stadium — and the Patriots have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home as an underdog. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots  (274) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (265) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (266). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 34-27 loss in Atlanta as a 4.5-point underdog. Las Vegas (5-3) has won three of their last four games after their 31-26 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers last week as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win. Las Vegas won that game despite being outgained by -120 net yards. The Raiders may have won five of their eight games — but they are being outscored by -1.5 PPG while being outgained by -14.1 Yards-Per-Game. Now Vegas returns home where they are just 1-2 this season while being outscored by -7.3 net PPG and outgained by -36.3 net YPG. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Denver has lost two of their last three games but they outgained these opponents by +11.0 net YPG. The Broncos should play tough in this game as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. Denver did generate 405 yards of offense in that game as they outgained the Falcons by 42 net yards. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Denver does expect to get starting cornerbacks A.J. Buoy and Bryce Callahan back for this game after they did not play against Atlanta. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (265) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (277) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (278). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-6) has lost two games in a row with their 31-26 loss at home to Las Vegas last Sunday as a 1-point underdog. Miami (5-3) has won four games in a row with their 34-31 upset win at Arizona as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles lost their fifth game of the season on the final play once again last week with a dropped pass in the end zone taking victory away from head coach Anthony Lynn’s team. Everyone is banging away at Lynn this week for his game management late in the game. Perhaps some of these criticisms are valid — but this dynamic is overplayed. While I disagree with those in the analytics community that thinks winning close games is solely a function of luck, I certainly agree that winning and losing close games often is dependent on one or two plays — and often those plays experience plenty of variance regarding the random events that take place within them (like dropping a touchdown pass). The ability to consistently play close games is the more predictable variable for this Chargers team than what happens in the final moments. Los Angeles’ has had a halftime lead six times this season. All six of their losses have been by seven points or less — and all those losses were by a combined 24 points. And going back to last year, the Chargers have seen 15 of their 17 losses decided by one scoring possession. What is more consistent is yardage numbers — and LA is outgaining their opponents by +61.5 net YPG. The Chargers are getting their ground game going to complement rookie QB, Justin Herbert, as they are averaging 146 rushing YPG over their last five games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two games in a row. They also have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games on the road after a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Chargers outgained the Raiders last week by +120 net yards as they held them to just 320 yards of offense. LA is 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games away from home. Miami was outgained by -130 net yards in their upset win last week. And that accomplishment came on the heels of their upset win over the Rams the previous week where they won despite being outgained by a whopping -326 net yards! The Dolphins scored two defensive touchdowns against the Rams before returning a 36-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown last week against the Cardinals. Scoring defensive touchdowns to overcome getting outgained by more than 100 YPG is simply not sustainable. Miami is being outgained by -61.5 net YPG — and they are losing the yardage battle at home by -106.8 net YPG. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 25 home games after a win by a field goal or less. And while Miami has won five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 29 home games after winning five or six of their last seven contests. Now this team returns home where they are an ugly 22-46-1 ATS in their last 69 games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are 34-15-4 ATS in their last 53 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games as a dog getting up to 3 points. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (277) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (256) minus points versus the Houston Texans (255). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (5-3) comes off their bye week having lost two of their last three games after their 16-6 upset loss at home to Las Vegas on November 1st as a 1-point favorite. Houston (2-6) snapped a two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 27-25 win at Jacksonville as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a double-digit loss at home. They do expect to get running back Nick Chubb back for this game for he missed the last four games with an injury. Chubb and running back Kareem Hunt should have big days against this Texans defense that ranks last in the league by allowing 159.5 rushing Yards-Per-Game. The Browns are 3-1 at home with an average winning margin of +4.5 Points-Per-Game. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The  Browns are also 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games as the favorite. Houston is due for a letdown as they are just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. And while the Texans gained 374 yards in the last game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Houston stays on the road for a second straight week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after playing their last game on the road. The Texans were outgained by -29 net yards to the Jaguars. They are just 1-3 on the road while being outscored by -6.3 PPG and being outgained by -91.3 net YPG. They are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road — and they are only 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Houston has lost and failed to cover the point spread in all five of their games this season against teams with a winning record — and all five of those teams have scored at least 30 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog — and they have not covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 20* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Cleveland Browns (256) minus points versus the Houston Texans (255). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (121) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (122). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (5-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 24-10 upset loss at home to Baltimore as a 1-point favorite. Tennessee (6-2) ended a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 24-17 win against Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Indianapolis outgained the Ravens last week by +79 net yards after holding them to just 260 total yards. Baltimore scored on a defensive touchdown from a 65-yard fumble recovery that helped to make the winning difference. Indianapolis is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Colts are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Indy is scoring a healthy 26.0 PPG this season — and that mark has risen to a 27.3 PPG clip in their last three games with them averaging 378.3 total YPG during that span. Quarterback Philip Rivers is completing 67.9% of his passes with 2087 passing yards and a 7.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average. And while tight end Jack Doyle is out for this game as he recovers from a concussion, Rivers will get wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton, back from the groin injury that has kept him out the last few weeks. The Colts’ offensive line leads the league by allowing only eight sacks this season — and the pass rush is a weakness for the Titans. Rivers should have plenty of time to pick apart the Tennessee secondary. Indianapolis also leads the NFL by allowing only 290.0 total YPG. They go back on the road where they are outgaining their opponents by +46.7 net YPG. The Colts are also 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games in November. Tennessee defeated the Bears last week despite getting outgained by -147 net yards. The Titans managed only 228 total yards against Chicago — and they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Despite winning six of their eight games, Tennessee is getting outgained by -10.2 net YPG. The Titans have eked out five of the six games they have played that have been decided by one scoring possession. Tennessee surrendered 319 passing yards to Nick Foles last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And while the Titans rank 7th in the league by scoring 29.0 PPG this year, they are scoring only 22.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 320.3 total YPG which is -63.6 net YPG below their season mark. Additionally, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow AFC opponents. Furthermore, the Titans will be missing a couple of important players with both wide receiver Adam Humphries and cornerback Adoree’ Jackson out with injuries.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their meetings last season with the road team winning both times. The Colts have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 meetings with the Titans including covering the point spread in six of their last eight trips to Nashville to play Tennessee in their building. Indianapolis is 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 Thursday Night Football games — and the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on Thursday nights. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (121) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (122). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Jets (476) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (475) and THE SITUATION: New York (0-8) lost their eighth straight game last week with their 35-9 loss at Kansas City as a 20-point underdog. New England (2-5) has lost four straight games after their 24-21 loss at Buffalo last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: This New England roster is a far cry from previous Bill Belichick teams — yet his teams have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 road games when favored by 7.5 to 10 points. This team lacks all semblances of a passing attack with Julian Edelman now on Injured Reserve and last year’s draft bust, N’Keal Harry, out with a concussion. Belichick listed 17 players as questionable for this game — and even given his aggressive use of the injury list, this is a ton of players for what was already a depleted roster. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 6 points or less. New England is also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Patriots are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last thirteen games when playing on field turf. New York is an ugly team to play right now with them being a legitimate threat to go winless this season. Yet they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after losing at least five games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing at least six games in a row. And while they have only covered the point spread once this season, the Jets have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Defense has certainly been a problem for this team — they allowed Kansas City to average 7.4 Yards-Per-Play en route to gaining 496 yards last week. But New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.5 YPP. The Jets have not scored more than 10 points in four straight games — yet they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not scoring more than 17 points in four straight games.

FINAL TAKE: New England is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. Hold your nose if you need to (I will!) — but the Jets’ is the “right” side tonight. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Jets (476) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (473). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (6-2) enters this game coming off a 25-23 win at New York against the Giants as a 13-point favorite for Monday Night Football. New Orleans (5-2) comes off a 26-23 win at Chicago in overtime last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay was flat on Monday as a double-digit favorite as they were perhaps looking ahead to this NFC South showdown. The Buccaneers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on a short week on Sunday after featuring on Monday Night Football. Tampa Bay allowed 367 yards to the Giants in the win — but they are 20-9-3 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bucs have one of the best defenses in the league as they are allowing only 20.6 PPG along with just 299.5 total YPG. Tampa Bay also boasts the best-run defense in the league as they hold their opponents to just 70.4 rushing YPG. They have held three opponents to under 50 rushing yards this season. This stout defense is a great combination with the Tom Brady-led offense. What is underrated about Brady is that his offenses limit turnovers. He threw two interceptions in the opening game loss in the Big Easy against the Saints — but he has thrown only two interceptions in his last six games. Furthermore, New Orleans has committed just five turnovers in their last seven games — and they have won the turnover battle in six of their last seven games. Brady is getting comfortable in the Bruce Arians offense. He is averaging 2 touchdown passes per game over his last three starts — and he is completing over 70% of his passes in his last two starts. Since Week Three, Brady has 17 touchdown passes to just one interception. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after a win on the road by 3 points or less. Their victory over the Bears came off a 27-24 win against Carolina — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning their last two games by a field goal or less. And while some bettors may consider the Saints “due” because they have not covered the point spread in their last three games, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning their last two games where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Saints defense is an issue as they are allowing 28.1 PPG this season. They are just 16th in the league by allowing 237.9 passing YPG — and they ave allowed two touchdowns of more than 60 yards. Their win over the Bears flew Over the 41 point Total — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams met in Brady’s first game in a Tampa Bay uniform with the Saints winning by a 34-23 score. Brady completed only 23 of 36 passes for what is now his third-lowest completion percentage with the Buccaneers. But New Orleans managed only 82 rushing yards in that game which is their lowest output of the season. Wide receiver Michael Thomas is questionable to return to the field today after missing much of the season. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games when playing with revenge against a team that scored at least 28 points against them. 25* NFC South Game of the Year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (468) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Las Vegas Raiders (467). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-5) looks to bounce back from a 31-30 loss at Denver last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Las Vegas (4-3) has won two of their last three games after their 16-6 upset win at Cleveland as a 1-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): That was the fifth game this season that Los Angeles has lost a game decided by seven points or less. All five of the Chargers’ losses have been decided by a combined 19 points. Despite winning only two of their seven games, head coach Anthony Lynn’s team is outgaining their opponents by +51.1 net YPG. They should respond with a strong effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering an upset loss in their last game. Additionally, the Chargers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Chargers’ offense is beginning to click under rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. They are scoring 32.0 PPG while averaging 439.7 total YPG with Herbert getting his top two weapons in the passing game, wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, healthy and on the field together at the same time. Los Angeles has scored at least 27 points in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 25 points in four straight contests. The Chargers are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two of their last three contests. The Raiders held the Browns to just 223 yards last week in the weather that limited the passing attacks for both teams. But Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not giving up more than 14 points in their last contest. Despair their winning record, the Raiders are only outgaining their opponents by +1.7 net YPG — and they are getting outscored by -2.3 PPG. They stay on the road for a second straight week where they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games when favored. And in their last 8 games played on field turf, Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have had this game circled on their calendars all year after getting swept by the Raiders last year. Los Angeles lost the first meeting in Oakland by a 26-24 score before getting upset in the rematch in LA by a 24-17 score as a 7-point favorite on December 22nd. This is expected to be a high-scoring game with the Total set in the low 50s — but the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher and the Chargers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. 25* AFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (468) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Las Vegas Raiders (467). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (453) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (454). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-4) has won three of their last four games after their 31-30 upset win at Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point underdog. Atlanta (2-6) has won two of their last three games with their 25-17 win at Carolina as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Falcons are not a reliable favorite laying more than 4 points. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games when laying up to a touchdown. They do come off an upset win where they averaged 6.08 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. The Falcons also allowed the Panthers to average 6.20 YPP — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight home games after allowing their last opponent to average at lest 6.0 YPP. Defense is the Achilles’ heel for this team as they are allowing their opponents to score 28.0 PPG while averaging 410.6 total YPG. Atlanta returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Denver generated 351 yards in their win over the Chargers despite only having the football for 24:07 minutes in that game. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while Denver has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games. The Broncos have a stout defense that is third in the NFL in Red Zone Defense. Over their last three games, they have held their opponents to just 22.0 PPG along with only 339.7 total YPG. This defense makes them dangerous underdogs as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when getting the points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Denver has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in November — and the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but take the points) Underdog Special with the Denver Broncos (453) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (302) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (301). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (4-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 37-27 loss at Seattle as a 1-point underdog. Green Bay (5-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 28-22 upset loss at home to Minnesota as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: This game opened as a pick ‘em before more injury news and a COVID outbreak in San Francisco has moved the Packers to around a touchdown road favorite. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and tight end George Kittle are out indefinitely. Running back Tevin Coleman has been downgraded to out with a knee. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Deebo Samuel are on the COVID list. Nick Mullens will run the offense — and this will be a run-heavy game-plan against the suspect Packers run defense that is allowing their opponents to average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. San Francisco swept the two meetings between these two teams last year — including in the NFC Championship Game where they won by a 37-20 score. The formula for success was running the football and dominating the physical battle — and head coach Kyle Shanahan will certainly keep this same approach for this rematch. Mullens has been fine under center — he is completing 70.4% of his passes this season with an 8.7 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He completed 18 of 25 passes for 238 yards in relief last week in Seattle. The Niners gained 351 yards in that game — and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. San Francisco has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to a divisional rival. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. Despite a host of injuries on defense headlined by the losses of Nick Bose, Richard Sherman, and Dee Ford, the Niners are still only allowing 21.6 PPG along with 314.6 total YPG — and those numbers have dropped to 19.7 PPG and 300.7 YPG over their last three games. San Francisco has an outstanding defensive coordinator in Robert Saleh who will have certainly studied closely the Bowles’ game plan from three weeks ago. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Green Bay has covered the point spread in expectations in five of their seven games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Packers’ offense has slowed down significantly since playing Tampa Bay three weeks ago when defensive coordinator Todd Bowles designed a game plan of complicated stunts and disguised schemes that stymied Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay is scoring only 22.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 326.7 total YPG in this copycat league. The Packers will not be at full strength with running backs A.J. Dillon and Jamal Williams on the COVID list. Running back Aaron Jones is also questionable with a calf injury — so he is a game-time decision. If Jones cannot play, the available running backs to the Packers’ offense is Tyler Ervin (who is mostly a pass-catching back) and Dexter Williams who would be activated off the practice squad. Now Green Bay stays on the road for a second-straight week — and they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing at San Francisco after getting swept last year by a combined 74-28 score. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (302) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (274) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (273). THE SITUATION: New York (1-6) looks to rebound from their 22-21 loss at Philadelphia two Thursdays ago as a 5-point underdog. Tampa Bay (5-2) has won two straight as well as five of their last six games after their 45-20 victory in Las Vegas last Sunday against the Raiders as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. The extra time to rest and prepare should help rookie head coach Joe Judge in this spot. As it is, the Giants have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after playing their last game on a Thursday night. Additionally, New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing three of their last four contests. The Giants allowed 442 yards to the Eagles while enduring a -2 net turnover margin. But New York has then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The team had a COVID scare last week but the only player that will miss this game will be offensive lineman Will Hernandez. Tampa Bay is just 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Tom Brady completed 33 of 45 passes for 369 yards to lead the Bucs to victory — but they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards. Tampa Bay allowed the Raiders to generate 271 passing yards as well — and they are just 19-41-1 ATS in their last 61 games after a game where they allowed at least 250 passing yards. The Bucs are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November. They stay on the road this week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. New York is getting too many points to pass up. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (274) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (271) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (272). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-5) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 25-3 upset loss at Washington last week. Philadelphia (2-4-1) looks to build off their 22-21 win over the New York Giants last week as a 5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Hold your nose if you must — but the Eagles are simply laying too many points to a divisional rival who have been humiliated in their last two games. They will be turning to rookie Ben Dinucci under center with Andy Dalton on the shelf after suffering a concussion last week. Frankly, the 7th round pick from James Madison cannot do much worse than Dalton has for this team. He passed for over 3400 yards in his senior season taking the Dukes to the national championship game. He adds desperately needed mobility to the position that Dalton lacks — he rushed for 569 yards with seven touchdowns last season for James Madison. I expect offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to get creative with Dinucci with some designed run plays. I also expect more creativity from Moore in getting the ball in the hands of the uber-talented Dallas wide receiving corps. And I expect more from running back Ezekiel Elliott after the Cowboys managed only 83 rushing yards last week against the Football Team. As it is, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a double-digit loss on the road. And while they surrendered 208 rushing yards last week to the Football Team, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 road games after allowing at least 175 rushing yards in their last game. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a losing record on the road. Philadelphia is just 1-2 at home this year — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Eagles remain a banged-up football team with three starters injured on their offensive line and several other starters out on both sides of the football including runny back Miles Sanders. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games when favored. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against NFC East foes — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 trips to play the Eagles in Philadelphia. Take all the points. 10* NFL Sunday Daily Discounted Deal with Dallas Cowboys (271) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (269). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-1) looks to rebound from their 37-34 upset loss in overtime at Arizona as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday night. San Francisco (4-3) pulled off their second-straight upset victory last week with their 33-6 victory at New England as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle should respond with a strong effort as they are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 6 points or less. The Seahawks are also 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 games after a point spread loss. Seattle dominated time of possession having the football for over nine minutes longer than the Cardinals — and they outgained them by +53 net yards. If not for a late personal foul that kept an Arizona drive alive, the Seahawks likely win that game. Seattle went into the locker room at halftime with a 27-17 lead — that was the first game in the Pete Carroll/Russell Wilson era where they lost a game after enjoying a halftime lead of at least four points. Wilson completed 33 of 50 passes for 388 yards while adding another 84 yards on the ground. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. Wilson leads an offense that is tops in the NFL in both scoring 33.8 PPG and in averaging 425.2 total YPG. The Seattle defense is a weakness — and the recently acquired Carlos Dunlap will not be able to play this week given COVID restrictions for newly acquired players. But Carroll expects to get Jamal Adams back on the field after he has been out with a groin injury. The Seahawks surrendered 360 yards last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Seattle returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. And in their last 6 games in November, the Seahawks are 5-0-1 ATS. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after not allowing more than 6 points in their last game. The 49ers are slowly getting a bit healthier — but this remains a shell of the Super Bowl team last season with Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Dee Ford, and Raheem Mostert all on Injured Reserve as they headline a still very long injured list. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They are also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November. Furthermore, the Niners have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against NFC West foes.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games against the Seahawks — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in Seattle. They did upset the Seahawks on the road in the last meeting between these two teams by a 26-21 score last December 29th — but that will likely be even more motivation for Seattle to get back to their winning ways this week. 25* NFC West Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (101) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (102). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (1-6) looks to bounce back from their 23-22 upset loss at home to Detroit as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Carolina (3-4) has lost their last two games after their 27-24 loss at New Orleans as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta blew their third game where they had a late lead when running back Todd Gurley could not stop himself from stumbling into the end zone after getting first down inside the Lions’ 10-yard line late in that game. The touchdown gave Matthew Stafford one last opportunity to score a touchdown — which he did on the last play of the game — to steal the victory. The Falcons have suffered four upset losses this season — and they have four net close losses in games decide by one scoring possession. Yet Atlanta still has the better roster than the Panthers. And their defense has played better as of late as they have held each of their last three opponents to just 23 points. The Falcons allowed Detroit to gain 386 yards — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Atlanta goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. And in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record, the Falcons have covered the point spread 5 times. Carolina was outgained by the Saints last week by -132 net yards. The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by 6 points or less. All three of Carolina’s victories have been as an underdog. They return home where they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 11 games as a favorite, Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these contests. There had been speculation that the Panthers would activate Christian McCaffrey for this game — but he remained on the Injured Reserve list this afternoon with his ankle sprain. Carolina is missing some players on their offensive line with tackle Russell Okung downgraded to doubtful with his calf injury and Michael Schofield III on the COVID list. The Panthers are also missing defensive tackle Kawan Short, defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos, and strong safety Juston Burris who are all on IR.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta will be looking to avenge a 23-16 upset loss at home to Carolina on October 11th which was the final game for both head coach Dan Quinn and general manager Thomas Dimitroff before both were fired the next day. Wide receiver Julio Jones did not play in that game either with his hamstring injury — but he is in better health now after hauling in eight catches for 97 yards last week against the Lions. The Falcons are wavering 28.4 PPG when Jones is in the lineup. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (101) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (476) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (475). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-2) looks to bounce back from their 24-16 upset loss at San Francisco last Sunday night as a 2.5-point favorite. Chicago (5-1) has won two games in a row after their 23-16 upset win at Carolina as a 2-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles should respond with a strong effort as they have coved the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss. They are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Now the Rams return home to SoFi Stadium where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when laying up to 7 points. Los Angeles is also 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 games when favored. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The Bears are averaging only 21.3 PPG this season — and tapping Nick Foles as their savior for a post-Mitchell Trubisky era has not solved the problem. Chicago has scored only 43 combined points in their last two games while settling for five field goals after stalled drives along the way. Foles is averaging only 5.9 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt over his last two starts. He is not getting much help from the Bears’ rushing attack that is without running back Tarik Cohen is out the season with a torn ACL. In their two last two victories, Chicago has accumulated only 98 total rushing yards while averaging just 2.5 Yards-Per-Carry. They managed only 63 rushing yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread 7 of their last 10 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams usually play above expectations when facing a familiar team under head coach Sean McVay as they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games against NFC foes. These two teams will be playing for the third straight season after Los Angeles won in Chicago last November 17th by a 17-7 score. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (476) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (467) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (468). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-0) returns to the field after their bye week after last defeating Minnesota by a 27-26 two weeks ago as a 6.5-point favorite. Arizona (4-2) comes off a 38-10 upset win at Dallas on Monday as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle started slowly against the Vikings by going into halftime with a 13-0 deficit — but they rallied to outscore Minnesota in the final 30 minutes by a 27-13 score. The Seahawks are 39-19-4 ATS in their last 62 games are a point spread loss — and this includes them covering the point spread in ten of these last twelve situations. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Seahawks should benefit from the self-scout during their bye week — they have won their last four games under head coach Pete Carroll after this experience. The Seattle offense is clicking behind QB Russell Wilson — they have scored at least 27 points in all five of their games. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 8 straight road games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Arizona may be due for an emotional letdown after their big win on national television. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win by at least 28 points. Additionally, while the Cardinals have held their last two opponents to just 10 points each, they are just 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. They return home after playing their last two games on the road but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after winning their last two games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle usually wins expected close games — they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. That is the Russell Wilson effect. The Seahawks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Arizona against the Cardinals. 10* NFL Seattle-Arizona NBC-TV Special with the Seattle Seahawks (467) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (470) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (469). THE SITUATION: New England (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 18-12 upset loss to Denver last Sunday as a 7-point favorite. San Francisco (3-3) enters this game triumphant after their 24-16 upset win over the Los Angeles Rams last Sunday as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: This is the first time that Bill Belichick’s team has been below .500 in October in 225 games. Their 26-10 loss at Kansas City two weeks ago was not a surprise since they were without Cam Newton in that game. Do not underestimate the negative impact the lack of practices has had on this team over the last two weeks. I believe Belichick and his coaching staff were able to address a host of issues this week in what was their first uninterrupted normal week of preparation since their 36-20 victory over the Raiders three weeks ago. Belichick’s teams in New England are a decisive 49-24-1 ATS in their last 74 games after a straight-up loss. I expect this Patriots’ offense to improve significantly this week after struggling against the Broncos. New England has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after not scoring more than 14 points in two straight contests. The Patriots defense is playing quite well — they held the Chiefs to just 19 points from their offense while limiting them to only 323 yards two weeks ago before holding the Broncos to 299 yards last week. Belichick teams usually are reliable in October as they are 42-17-2 ATS in their last 61 games in this month — and the Patriots have covered the point spread in seven of their last ten games in October. New England has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games as a home favorite of 7 points or less. San Francisco may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset win at home against an NFC West rival. The 49ers are starting to get healthy again — but they are still a shell of the team that made it to the Super Bowl. The defense remains a M*A*S*H unit with Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, and Richard Sherman out indefinitely. The Niners will also be without the glue of their defense for the second straight week in linebacker Kwon Alexander who is dealing with a high ankle sprain. On offense, the team put running back Raheem Mostert on IR this week to join Tevin Coleman on that list. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games in October. They are also just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Belichick should have a special game plan for 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo who he drafted and groomed in New England for years before trading him to San Francisco. 25* NFL CBS-TV Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (470) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (477) plus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (478). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (5-0) looks to build off their 38-7 win over Cleveland last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Tennessee (5-0) also remained undefeated last week with their 42-36 win in overtime against Houston as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh should build off their momentum as they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Furthermore, the Steelers are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games after both a straight-up win and after a point spread victory. Pittsburgh is also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Now the Steelers go back on the road where they are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 home games after a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Titans rolled up 607 yards of offense against the hapless Texans defense last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game. QB Ryan Tannehill completed 30 of 41 passes for 366 yards in that game — but Tennessee is 18-44-2 ATS in their last 64 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Titans are rolling — but they suffered a massive blow when their left tackle, Taylor Lewan, suffered a season-ending knee injury. Moving forward, Tennessee’s lack of a pass rush may hold them back when facing elite teams. This helps explain why they are last in the league in third-down defense. And in their last 15 games in expected high-scoring games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Big Ben Roethlisberger and this Pittsburgh team are very tough when playing the role of the underdog. The Steelers are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games when getting the points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road as a dog. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers (477) plus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Giants (303) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (304). THE SITUATION: New York (1-5) snapped their five-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-19 win over Washington as a 2-point favorite. Philadelphia (1-4-1) has lost two games in a row with their 30-28 loss at home to Baltimore as a 10.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York should build off the momentum of winning their first game of the season under rookie head coach Joe Judge. Remember, Judge did not have a typical offseason to implement his program — so the first month of the season had to be a continuation of that work. I expect continued improvement from this team under Judge. As it is, the Giants have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. New York has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. the Giants’ defense has been playing pretty good — they are holding their home hosts to just 315.3 total YPG this season. This has helped New York cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Giants have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. And they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against fellow teams from the NFC. Additionally, New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Eagles generated 364 yards against the Ravens defense last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Philly offense is riddled with injuries. They will be without running back Miles Sanders for a few weeks with his knee injury which means their lead back tonight will be the 5’7 Boston Scott who has rushed for only 67 yards on 21 carries. QB Carson Wentz is without a number of his best targets in the passing game. Wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey and tight end Dallas Goedert are out for tonight. Star tight end Zach Ertz has yet to be ruled out but he suffered ankle injuries that the doctors think will keep him on the shelf for weeks. Wide receiver DeSean Jackson plans to take the field tonight after missing the last three games but it remains to be seen how effective the 33-year old can be coming off a hamstring injury that may impact his speed. The Eagles offensive line is even in worse shape. Starters Brandon Brooks, Andre Dillard, and Isaac Seumaol are all out. The team brought back Jason Peters after Dillard suffered his season-ending biceps injury — and he is also on the Injured Reserve. Tackle Lane Johnson will take the field despite his ankle injury but rookie backup Jack Driscoll is out tonight with an ankle. Wentz has been sacked 25 times this season — and being hurried has contributed to his nine interceptions. The Giants have a good pass rush that ranks 10th in the legacy with 15 sacks. Philadelphia stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have won the last six meetings between these two teams after sweeping both games last season. But Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when laying the points. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (303) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (276) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (275). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-3) enters this game coming off a 37-34 win at home over the New York Giants last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Arizona (3-2) looks to build off their 30-10 win at New York against the Jets as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: The big news for Dallas is the season-ending injury to Dak Prescott. I think the offense will continue to be productive with Andy Dalton under center. The Red Rider is a veteran with playoff experience who needed to get out of Cincinnati. He has tons of offensive weapons with the Cowboys with Ezekiel Elliott at running back along with one of the most talented and deepest wide receiving corps in the league. I also think the strength of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is his initial scheming (not so much with his ability to adapt) — so I think Dallas will have a short-term advantage with Moore’s wrinkles with the offense as he shapes it to Dalton’s strength. Look for the Cowboys to come out with plenty of energy as they look to salvage their season — and they are still in first place in the hapless NFC East. Dallas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home where they scored at least 31 points. And while the Cowboys have not covered the point spread in any of their games this season, Dallas has then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least four straight games. The Cowboys lead the NFL by averaging 488.0 total YPG — and that usually is a good sign for them moving forward. After scoring 75 combined points in their last two games, Dallas has scored at least 31 points in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 35 points in their last two contests. The Cowboys have gained at least 408 yards in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after gaining at last 400 yards in three straight games. And while Dallas has averaged at least 6.48 Yards-Per-Play in their last four contests, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in four straight contests. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Cardinals dominated the woeful Jets by outgaining them by +211 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +200 net yards. Quarterback Kyler Murray completed 27 of 37 passes for 380 yards in the victory — but Arizona is just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games after passing for at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Cardinals are just 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. This Arizona team is also without their All-Pro linebacker Chandler Jones who suffered a season-ending biceps injury. Not only will the Cardinals miss his 19 sacks from last season but they are also without linebacker Devon Kennard.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing on Monday Night Football while Dallas has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on MNF. Look for the Cowboys to pull out the victory behind Dalton. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (276) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (274) minus the points versus Los Angeles Rams (273). THE SITUATION:  San Francisco (2-3) was upset for the second straight week last Sunday with their 43-17 shellacking at the hands of Miami as an 8.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (4-1) has won two straight games with their 30-10 win at Washington as a 7-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a critical game for San Francisco after they have been upset in two straight games as a favorite laying more than a touchdown in two straight weeks in what was supposed to be a fruitful three-game homestand. The Niners were upset at home two weeks ago on Sunday Night Football against the Eagles (when we successfully had Philly) before their upset loss at home to the Dolphins last week. San Francisco goes on the road next week for a brutal two-game swing at New England and then Seattle. With the NFC West also including an up-and-coming Arizona team, head coach Kyle Shanahan simply needs to get a victory from his team tonight. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss by at least 21 points. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. QB Jimmy Garoppolo was probably rushed back to action last week with his bum ankle as he could not plant his leg which led to him completing only 7 of 17 passes while throwing two interceptions last week before Shanahan got him out of there at halftime. Garoppolo should be better this week — and the pressure will be on for him to perform. The 49ers are also simply ravaged with injuries especially on defense where Richard Sherman, Joey Bosa, and Dee Ford are on IR while linebacker Kwon Alexander is out with an ankle. Yet despite all this attrition, San Francisco is fifth in the NFL by allowing only 323.0 YPG — and they are third in the league by allowing only 215.6 passing YPG and only six touchdown passes. The 49ers should step up in this game as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Los Angeles may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning two games in a row. And while they have not allowed more than 10 points in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. The Rams held the Football Team to just 108 yards of offense last week while limiting them to only a 2.45 Yards-Per-Play average. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after not allowing more than 200 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after holding their last opponent to no more than 3.5 YPP. And while the combination of Alex Smith and Kyle Allen only managed 70 total passing yards last week, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 100 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: All four of Los Angeles’ victories have been against the weak NFC East teams — so their great stats may be propped up by a favorable early schedule. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (274) minus the points versus Los Angeles Rams (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (462) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (461). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-0) finally takes the field again after last playing on September 27th where they defeated the Vikings in Minnesota by a 31-30 score as a 3-point favorite. Buffalo (4-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 30-23 win at Las Vegas as a 3-point favorite on October 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Endorsing Tennessee for this game first required an up-to-date assessment regarding who will be playing tonight. The news early this afternoon is that both left tackle Taylor Lewan and wide receiver A.J. Brown are expected to play after being listed as questionable on the last official injured list submitted to the league on Saturday. I thought this would be the case with the extra days to rest and rehabilitate — but confirmation was essential for me to push the proverbial button on this play. The Titans have a long lost of players out due to COVID with wide receivers Adam Humphries and Corey Davis being two of those players. I do have sources at the private high school in Nashville where Tennessee conducted informal workouts last week violating NFL guidelines. These workouts were on multiple days (good!) that involved quarterback Ryan Tannehill (good!) working with coaches (good!) in passing drills which are presumably the players that will be taking Humphries and Davis spots tonight (good!). I am not thrilled that the Titans will have had only two practices back at their open facilities since Saturday — but that is similar to the regimen for teams playing on a Thursday after a short week. At least Tennessee has stayed at home this entire time. And getting seventeen days of rest does not hurt. I think this will be a big night for running back Derrick Henry (who was not at the informal workouts — he was resting, which is good!) who may be poised to have his best game of the season running behind Lewan. I also like the extended time that head coach Mike Vrabel and his staff have had to devise a scheme-specific against the Bills’ QB Josh Allen. The only other significant loss for the Titans from COVID is defensive end, Jeffery Simmons. Tennessee has not covered the point spread yet this season — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after both a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread in and after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. Tannehill led an offense that generated 444 yards against the Vikings in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 400 yards. And in their last 12 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, Tennessee has covered the point spread 8 times. Buffalo has won and covered the point spread in all four of their games this season — but I don’t like it when teams that are red hot get out of their routine. As it is, the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after winning at least four games in a row. Additionally, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 38 of their last 60 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Bills have won all three of their games decided by one possession including two wins by just a field goal. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in their win over the Raiders — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after generating a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against fellow AFC opponents while Buffalo is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against AFC foes. While skepticism over the Titans after their long break is deserved, the market has over-adjusted (fueled by the Allen-hype) in making them road favorites of at least a field goal where they would typically be small road dogs according to most power rankings. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Tennessee Titans (462) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (477) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (478). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-3) has lost three straight games after their 38-31 loss at Tampa Bay as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. New Orleans (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 35-29 victory in Detroit against the Lions as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. New Orleans is a banged-up football team. On defense, cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins and Marston Lattimore along with defensive end Marcus Davenport are all questionable with injuries. On offense, the offensive line is dealing with injuries to Andrus Peat and Ryan Ramczyk that leave them questionable for tonight. And while wide receiver Michael Thomas was questionable with the ankle that kept him out the previous two games, he was suspended for tonight’s game by the field after a physical altercation with a teammate. All these issues will make it harder for a team to cover a point spread of about a touchdown — the Saints just want the victory. They are scoring 30.8 PPG — but they are also allowing 30.8 PPG so far this season. They return home to the Big Easy where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games when laying the points. Los Angeles has lost all three of their games by 7 points or less. The Chargers had a 24-7 lead in the second quarter against the Buccaneers before blowing that lead to Tom Brady and company. They also blew a lead against Kansas City before losing that game in overtime — and a fumbled lateral in the waning moments of their game with Carolina probably cost them that victory. This is a quality roster with a good head coach in Anthony Lynn. I am worried about their injuries — particularly on the offensive line. But the Chargers put up 31 points against a very good Tampa Bay defense despite the injuries to Trai Turner and Bryan Bulaga who are starters on their offensive line. They seem to have made the right decision in drafting Justin Herbert at quarterback. The rookie has completed 72% of his passes for 831 yards and an 8.7 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt average. Running back Austin Ekeler is out but they have a solid stable of running backs with rookie Joshua Kelley out of UCLA and former Northwestern Wildcat Josh Jackson. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 31 road games after losing at least three games in a row. The Chargers are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games with the total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles is 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog — and they are 33-15-4 ATS in their last 52 road games when getting the points. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on Monday Night Football — and remember that they will not have a packed and rowdy home crowd for this game given COVID restrictions. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (477) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (475) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (476). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-3) won their first game of the season last Sunday with their 31-23 upset win at Houston as a 3.5-point underdog. Seattle (4-0) remains unbeaten this season after they defeated Miami on the road last week by a 31-23 score as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Earning their first win of the season was a good start — but Minnesota remains in an urgent situation with Green Bay and Chicago only having one loss between the both of them in the NFC North. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after losing two of their last three games. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has received his usual level of criticism during the losing streak — but he has led an offense that has scored 61 combined points over the last two games and that has reached the 30-point threshold in three of their four games this season. Justin Jefferson has emerged as a solid replacement for Stefon Diggs and a good complement to Adam Thielen — he has 11 receptions for 278 yards. Minnesota generated 410 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. Delvin Cook has been outstanding this season with two straight 100-yard rushing efforts. He ran the ball 27 times for 130 yards and two touchdowns last week. Cook’s success running the football allowed the Vikings to control the time of possession for 36:31 minutes — and this will be the formula for success tonight to keep Russell Wilson off the field. Minnesota rushed for 162 yards overall against the Texans — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Vikings are also 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games in October. Seattle looks to become 5-0 on the season for the first time in franchise history. They have passed for at least 275 yards in all four of their games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 275 yards in three straight games. But the bigger concern is their defense that is allowing 476.8 total YPG. The Seahawks are being outgained by -60.5 net YPG this season — it is their +5 net turnover margin that has helped them overcome that disparity. But the turnovers are fickle — and Seattle will not have the services of their star defensive back Jamal Adams for this game as he deals with a groin injury. As it is, the Seahawks have allowed at least 312 passing yards in all four of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 275 passing yards in three straight games. Seattle returns home where they will not have any fans in the stadium — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games. The Seahawks are also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Cousins has the reputation of folding under the bright lights of nationally-televised prime-time games — but the numbers do not support that claim for Sunday Night Football. Cousin has led his team to a victory in four of his six starts on a Sunday night. Furthermore, his 320.5 passing YPG average, 73.3% completion percentage, and his 117.3 Passer Rating represent the best marks of all NFL quarterbacks playing on Sunday Night Football. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (475) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (452) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (451). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-4) remained winless this season after their 30-16 loss at Green Bay on Monday as a 5-point underdog. Carolina (2-2) pulled off their second straight upset victory last Sunday with their 31-21 win at home against Arizona as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: Atlanta has had success playing a short week after a game on Monday Night Football as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games at home after playing on MNF. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after losing four in a row. Atlanta’s secondary is a disaster right now with injuries — but head coach Dan Quinn activated rookie A.J. Terrell after he was diagnosed with COVID. Keanu Allen and Ricardo Allen might be able to play with both listed as questionable. The 403 yards they surrendered to the Packers was the lowest amount in their last three games — and not only have they covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game but they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 52 games after allowing at least 375 yards in two straight games. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now the Panthers go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Carolina has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. And in their last 26 games against teams with a losing record, they are just 7-18-1 ATS. The Panthers will be without defensive back Eli Apple who is out with a hamstring injury. Considering that Carolina is last in the NFL with only three sacks on the season, Matt Ryan should have a field day picking apart the Panthers secondary.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC South opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight trips to Atlanta to face the Falcons. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Atlanta Falcons (452) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (460) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (459). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-4) remained winless last week after their 31-23 upset loss at Minnesota last Sunday despite being a 3.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (1-3) has lost three straight games after their 33-25 loss at Cincinnati last week as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston sacked head coach and general manager Bill O’Brien after Sunday’s loss. The speculation is that J.J. Watt’s frustration with O’Brien finally boiled over which resulted in a verbal altercation between the two. When the star players begin to turn on you, then ownership needed to make a move to change the atmosphere. Because Watt demonstrated leadership to take on O’Brien in a move he had to think would cause waves, I expect a big from him and the rest of the team as they rally around each other and interim head coach Romeo Crennel who is universally-liked on the team. At 73-years old, Crennel not only replaces Pete Carroll as the league’s elder statesman at head coach but he will be the oldest head coach in NFL history. As it is, the Texans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when staying at home after a loss at home. Houston has also covered the point spread in their last 3 games after an upset loss at home. The biggest problem for this team is their run defense as they rank last in the league by allowing 181.1 rushing YPG. They have allowed all four of their opponents to rush for at least 162 yards this season — but not only have they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yard in two straight games but they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in three straight games. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Jaguars’ defense has issues of their own after allowing the Bengals to rack up 505 yards last week with 205 of those yards coming on the ground. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 30 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards. The Jags will be without cornerback D.J. Hayden who was placed on injured reserve this week with a hamstring injury. Look for Deshaun Watson to have a big game against the inexperienced Jacksonville secondary. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. And in their last 9 games in October, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Teams that fired their head coach midseason have only covered the point spread twice in these last eight situations — but that limited sample size deserves some context. Often these moves are made later in the season when the team is out of playoff contention and planning their offseason. And often the fired head coach was generally liked and respected — Carolina laid an egg in their first game after Ron Rivera was fired late in the year as they appeared dejected with the move by ownership. I suspect the Houston players have had the Wizard of Oz on loop all week because they think that the “wicked witch is dead.” The Texans won both meetings between these two teams last season so they have to think this is a winnable game if they get back to basics. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Houston Texans (460) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (459). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (302) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-1) lost their first game of the season on Sunday with their 19-11 loss at home to Indianapolis as a 3.5-point underdog. Tampa Bay (3-1) has won three straight games with their 38-31 win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Nick Foles struggled in his first start in a Chicago uniform but he did look more in synch in the second half of that game where he led the offense to their only touchdown. He completed 26 of 42 passes for 249 yards. He did not get much help from the rushing game last week — but eight penalties that accounted for 103 total yards were killers for the Bears. The Chicago defense played well by limiting the Colts to only 289 total yards. And for the second straight game, the Bears lost the turnover battle. But Chicago has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 home games after enduring a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. The Bears are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Chicago is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games as an underdog. Tampa Bay has won three in a row against less than the stellar competition with victories over Carolina and Denver before the Chargers last week. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Injuries will likely slow down this team this week. Quarterback Tom Brady did not have his top four wide receivers available to practice on Tuesday. Chris Godwin and Justin Watson are now out for this game with Mike Evan a game-time decision and Scottie Miller likely to play despite being questionable. Tight end O.J. Howard was already lost for the season on Sunday with his Achilles’ injury. This leaves Brady without many weapons — and while he might have been able to manufacture offense with the players he knew very well back in his New England days, playing on a short week with a new cast of characters and a new offense presents a much different challenge. Furthermore, while Brady completed 30 of his 46 passes for 369 yards last week against the Chargers in his best game as a Buccaneer, Tampa Bay is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards. Furthermore, the Bucs are just 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games when favored — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Look for Chicago to play much better tonight than they did on Sunday. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (302) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (279) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (280). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-3) will be playing with desperation tonight after losing their third straight game last Sunday by a 30-26 score despite being a 2.5-point favorite. Green Bay (3-0) is unbeaten so far this season after they upset New Orleans last Sunday night by a 37-30 score on the road as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta had a 26-10 lead with 6 1/2 minutes to go in that game before surrendering the final 20 points in that game to lose to the Bears. That collapse came on the heels of them blowing a 39-24 lead with 5 minutes left in the game two weeks ago against the Cowboys in their 40-39 loss. The Falcons may not be able to keep a lead — but they remain competitive. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Atlanta is moving the ball on offense — they are scoring 30.0 PPG while averaging 419.0 total YPG. They generated 371 yards last week against the Bears — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They should be able to score against this Packers defense that is last in the NFL by allowing 6.6 Yards-Per-Play. Opposing quarterbacks have racked up a Passer Rating of 113.4 which is the 3rd highest in the league. Green Bay is also allowing opposing rushers to average 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Falcons’ biggest problem is their defense that is ravaged with injuries in their secondary. They allowed the Bears to gain 437 yards last week after the Cowboys gained 570 yards against them. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Falcons have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning three games in a row. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games off a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. They will not have the services of their best wide receiver, Davante Adams, who will not play with a hamstring injury despite him participating in practice at the end of the week. Green Bay is dealing with a number of injuries with wide receiver Allan Lazard and linebacker Christian Kirksey out tonight.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Look for them to keep this game close and perhaps pull the upset. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Special Feature with the Atlanta Falcons (279) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (277) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (278). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (0-2-1) enters this game coming off a 23-23 tie with Cincinnati where they were 5.5-point favorites. San Francisco (2-1) returns home after winning their two games in the Meadowlands which concluded with their 36-9 win against the Giants last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The 49ers are simply being asked to lay too many points in this situation. The Niners return home after winning both their games in the Meadowlands against the Jets and Giants. Those could be the two worst teams in the league this season — so let’s not start engraving San Francisco’ return to the Super Bowl just yet. As it is, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. They return home where they are just 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games when favored. They are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Jimmy Garoppolo remains out with his ankle injury so the offense will be led by backup Nick Mullens. San Francisco is dealing with a long list of injuries but the bigger concerns are on defense. Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Dee Ford along with cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and Akhello Witherspoon are all out for this game. Much has been made of the struggles Carson Wentz is experiencing. He has lowest Passer Rating of all qualifying quarterbacks in the league. He is completing only 59.8% of his passes which is just 28th of qualifying NFL quarterbacks. He is working behind a depleted offensive line riddled with injuries. Yet despite all this, the Eagles did generate 381 yards last week with 185 of those yards coming on the ground. The good news for Wentz is the Miles Sanders has been upgraded to probable to offer him a credible rushing threat that should take some of the pressure off him. The running back has generated 190 rushing yards over his last two games with a crisp 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Turnovers are holding Philadelphia back as they have given the ball up eight times in their three games while forcing only one turnover this season. But turnovers tend to even out over time. The Eagles had a -2 net turnover margin last week — but they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Additionally, Philadelphia is allowing just 330.7 total YPG — and they are outgaining their opponents by 5.6 net YPG. They are playing better than their record. The Eagles go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: With Baltimore and Pittsburgh on deck, this is a critical game for the Eagles as they look for their first win on the season. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in October. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games in October. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Eagles (277) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (251) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (252). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (2-1) enters this game coming off a 36-7 win over the New York Jets last Sunday as a 12.5-point favorite. Chicago (3-0) remains unbeaten this season after their 30-26 upset win at Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS THE POINTS: It seems son for many observers that the undefeated Bears are a home underdog in this situation — especially with this team liberated from Mitchell Trubisky with head coach Matt Nagy moving on to the veteran Nick Foles. Yet Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. And while the Bears generated 437 yards of offense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, while Chicago allowed the Lions to gain 371 yards in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in October. The Bears have not been dangerous underdogs as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when getting the points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. Indianapolis scored two defensive touchdowns in their dominant win over the Giants — and their defense limited them to just 260 total yards. Philip Rivers was masterful running the offense as he completed 17 of 21 passes for 217 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions. The Colts have won two straight games with this win preceded by a 28-11 victory over the Giants — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Indy has also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after they won two straight games by at least two touchdowns. Indy is favored because of their still underrated defense. They lead the NFL by allowing only 225.3 total YPG — and their defense ranks top-five in run defense, pass defense, sacks, and interceptions.

FINAL TAKE: The Colts have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 road games when favored by no more than 3 points. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Chicago CBS-TV Special with the Indianapolis Colts (251) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (257) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (258). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (1-2) looks to rebound from their 31-13 upset loss at home on Thursday night in Week Three as a 2.5-point favorite. Cincinnati (0-2-1) comes off a tie last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: We had the Dolphins in that game — and Jacksonville did outgain the Dolphins +24 net yards despite only having the ball for 25:38 minutes in that game. The Jags fell behind to trail by a 21-7 score at halftime to get them out of their rushing attack. Look for the undrafted rookie running back James Robinson to have a good game against this Bengals run defense that is allowing 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry while ranking last in the NFL by allowing 182 rushing YPG. Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in the first month of the season. Additionally, the Jags have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents. Cincinnati eked out the tie despite being outgained by -77 net yards last Sunday. But the Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. The Eagles outrushed Cincinnati in that game by a 175 to 48 margin which is a bad sign for now hosting this Jacksonville team. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after being outrushed by at least 100 yards in their last game. Cincinnati surrendered 381 yards to that decimated Philly offense hit hard by injuries — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bengals return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have failed to cove the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when laying the points. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but take the points for some insurance) with the Jacksonville Jaguars (257) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Jets (102) minus the point(s) versus the Denver Broncos (101). THE SITUATION: New York (0-3) has lost their first three games this season after their 36-7 loss at Indianapolis on Sunday. Denver (0-3) is also winless so far this season with their 28-10 loss at home to Tampa Bay on Sunday as a 6-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS MINUS THE POINTS: New York has failed to cover the point spread in their three games this season — and rumors are flying that head coach Adam Gase may lose his job if his team loses tonight. The Jets have looked like the worst team in the league — and bettors are avoiding them tonight. But this team has cord the point spread in 26 of their last 43 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games and this includes them covering the spread in four of these last six situations. And while the New York defense has allowed at least 27 points in all three of their games, they have then covered the point spread in 3 straight games after allowing at least 25 points in their last game. The injuries have ravaged both teams, which is not a surprise considering neither of these teams has yet to win a game. But the news has been encouraging for the Jets side of things as the week has moved forward. Starting tackle George Fant, wide receiver Jamison Crowder, and cornerback Quincy Wilson have all been upgraded from questionable to probable. Those additions — especially Fant and Crowder — are important. Quarterback Sam Darnold has struggled this season but he should play better after throwing two pick-sixes last week. He will be the better quarterback on the field tonight. The Denver offense was considered a work in progress even before being hit hard by the injury bug. Quarterback Drew Lock is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Jeff Driskel led an offense that generated only 226 yards last week. He was relieved by Brett Rypien in that game — and after the former undrafted QB out of Boise State completed 8 of 9 passes for 53 yards (and an interception in the end zone), head coach Vic Fangio named him the starter for this game despite it being played on a short week. Wide receiver Cortland Sutton is on the IR with an ACL injury while running back Phillip Lindsay is questionable with his injury. The defense is also riddled with a long list of injuries with Von Miller’s ankle injury that put him on IR being the most significant. They have forced only two turnovers this season. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss. And while they allowed 353 yards last week to the Buccaneers, they have are then just 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Denver opened as a small road favorite in the 2-point range before being bet too small underdog by today. The injury updates this week have mostly gone in the Jets’ direction. The Broncos have nine players on IR and linebacker Jeremiah Attaochu has been ruled out for tonight’s game. Either way, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the New York Jets (102) minus the point(s) versus the Denver Broncos (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (490) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (489). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-0) enters this showdown coming off a 33-16 win at Houston last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Kansas City (2-0) rallied from a 17-6 deficit in the 3rd quarter to defeat the Chargers in Los Angeles in overtime by a 23-20 score as an 8.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore comes into this game as the top team in the league in point differential with their 38-6 opening week against Cleveland. The Ravens have now won fourteen straight games in the regular season — and the 22 points they have allowed are the fewest in the league going into Week Three. Baltimore should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Ravens have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in two straight contests. They return home to M&T Bank Stadium where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Kansas City is showing signs of a Super Bowl hangover — the successful Patrick Mahomes’ rally against the Chargers last week was the fourth time in their last five games where he had to lead his team back from a double-digit deficit. I think the hole they dug themselves in last week is a canary in the coal mine regarding the champs thinking they can turn on and off their switch. This Ravens team is the wrong group to do that against. The Chiefs were outgained by the Charger by 65 yards — and rookie quarterback Justin Herbert led an offense that racked up 479 yards against their defense in his first game as a professional. Not great, Bob. Run defense was one of the liabilities for Kansas City last season in their Super Bowl run — and they are allowing 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry this season which is resulting in 150.4 rushing YPG. They are allowing their opponents a 62% Success Rate in their ground game as well which is 30th in the league. Baltimore is averaging 168 rushing YPG so far this season while averaging 34 rushing attempts per game. The Chiefs are also just 22nd in the NFL in Explosive Play Rate allowed while ranking last in Explosive Pass Play Rate allowed. The tackling for the Kansas City defenders has been shoddy — a product of the lack of a normal preseason along with perhaps some champions’ complacency. These are all bad signs for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss where they failed to cover the point spread — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 6 points or less. And in their last 8 games on field turf, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has had this game circled all offseason after losing to the Chiefs last year by a 33-28 score on September 22nd — and that was after they lost to them in December of 2018 against Mahomes by a 27-24 score in overtime. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (490) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (489). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (488) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (487). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-1) looks to rebound from their 34-24 upset loss in Las Vegas against the Raiders on Monday as a 4-point favorite. Green Bay (2-0) has started the season unbeaten after defeating the Lions at home in Lambeau Field last week by a 42-21 score as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Sean Payton was livid with his team after they committed ten penalties accounting for 129 yards with five of those penalties accounting for first downs for the Raiders. The Saints are the most-penalized team in the league with 248 penalty yards after two games. Payton kept his team in Vegas overnight to discuss the mistakes his team has been making. Expect this team to come out on fire. As it is, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. New Orleans has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 38 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Drew Brees is getting plenty of criticism this week for not throwing the ball downfield. Is he losing arm strength? Yeah, probably — but that is probably an overrated quality (at least, Brett Favre and Phill Simms say so). Certainly Brees misses wide receiver Michael Thomas who will be out for this game with his ankle injury. But even without Thomas last week, Brees led an offense that averaged 7.44 Yards-Per-Play — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after averaging at least 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in their last contest. The problem for New Orleans besides the penalties — or, another result of the penalties that kept FIVE drives alive — was that they only had the ball for 23:42 minutes in that game. The Saints gained 424 yards on Monday — and they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. The short week should not be a problem as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when playing with six days or less of rest. And in their last 41 games against teams with a winning record, New Orleans is 27-13-1 ATS. Before we crown the Packers the Super Bowl Championship for scoring 85 points in their first two games, lets remember that they did this against an injured Detroit defense and a Minnesota defense that lost five starters from last year’s team. Remember, Green Bay was outgained last season by their opponents but made it to the NFC Championship Game because they were 9-1 in one-possession games. They were closer to an 8-8/9-7 team, in practice, that a 13-3 team. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Additionally, they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers may be without Rodgers’ favorite target in Davante Adams after he injured his hamstring which kept him out of the second half last week against the Lions. Adams is going to try to play it looks like (and he is my fantasy line up tonight for Guinea Pig Nation) — but I am not optimistic. But Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Saints. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (488) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (487). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (485) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (486). THE SITUATION: Dallas (1-1) looks to build off their miracle 40-39 victory over the Falcons in Atlanta last Sunday where they were 3-point favorites. Seattle (2-0) comes off a 35-30 victory at home over New England last Sunday night as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas should be emboldened from their late rally which saw them score 16 points in under five minutes to play in that game. The Cowboys did dominate Atlanta by generating 570 yards while outgaining them by +190 net yards. Dallas has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a win at home where they scored at least 31 points. And while the Cowboys trailed by a 29-10 score at halftime, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 road games after trailing by at least two touchdowns in their also game. And Dallas has also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 road games after allowing at least 35 points in their last contest. Seattle comes off an emotional win on national prime-time television against the Patriots. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and there will not be fans in the stand for this game given COVID-10 precautions. The Seahawks are also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents. While Russell Wilson is getting all the headlines, Seattle’s defense is a growing problem. New England outgained them last Sunday by a 464 to 429 margin. The lack of a credible pass rush is allowing opposing quarterbacks to tee-off against the Seahawks’ secondary. Seattle is last in the NFL by allowing 416 passing YPG — and the 485 total YPG they are allowing is also last in the league. Pay Dak his $$$! Prescott completed 33 of 47 passes for 450 yards in orchestrating the Cowboys’ comeback last week — and that offense was at its most effective when it was running through him rather than Ezekiel Elliott.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home when favored. The Cowboys are dangerous underdogs who have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games — and this includes them covering the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Dallas-Seattle Fox-TV Special with the Dallas Cowboys (485) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (486). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (462) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (461). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce back from their heartbreaking 35-30 loss at Seattle last Sunday night as a 4.5-point underdog where they failed to convert on the goal-line on the final play of the game that would have given them the victory. Las Vegas (2-0) comes off a triumphant 34-24 upset victory at home on Monday Night Football against New Orleans as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders earned an emotional win in their debut in their new Allegiant Stadium (down the road from the Hollywood Sports office) — but they now find themselves in a letdown situation after their perfect 2-0 start to the season. On a short week, Las Vegas has to make their second trip out east in three weeks to play at a 1 PM ET start — during a pandemic! — with the old 10 AM PT body clock problem. As it is, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 28 games after an upset victory as a home underdog. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win at home. The Raiders did generate 377 yards of offense against the Saints defense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the bigger concern is that they were outgained by -47 net yards with New Orleans generating 424 yards despite only having the football for less than 24 minutes in that game. The Saints also gifted the Raiders 129 yards from their ten penalties with five of them directly producing first downs. New Orleans averaged a whopping 7.44 Yards-Per-Play on Monday. They are allowing 6.54 YPP after two games. They are also just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. New England should respond with a strong effort as they are 48-23-1 ATS in their last 72 games after a straight-up loss in the Bill Belichick era. The Patriots’ offense looks fantastic under the direction of (a completely healthy again) Cam Newton. After rushing the ball 15 times for 75 yards with two touchdowns in the opening week, he torched the Seahawks for 397 passing yards by completing 30 of 44 passes — and he added another 44 yards on the ground with two more rushing scores. These are all great signs for Belichick whose teams have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games after scoring at least 30 points. New England outgained Seattle by a 464-429 margin despite losing on the scoreboard. The Patriots are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. New England needs to tighten things up on defense — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game. Belichick is the best in the business in having his defense take away the opposing offenses’ best weapon — so that means plenty of attention Raiders’ tight end Darren Waller who caught 12 passes for 103 yards on Monday. Las Vegas receiving corps drops off after Waller and first-round draft pick Henry Ruggs III is still dealing with an injury. The Patriots return home where they are a decisive 43-21-3 ATS in their last 67 games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the total set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have been a great early story to the season — but they remain a team that averaged only 15 PPG over their final seven games while never topping 24 points so I am not completely sold that this is now a 30 PPG scoring attack despite scoring 68 points so far this season. This is also a team that got blown out by a 42-21 score to Tennessee, a 40-9 score at Kansas City, and a 34-3 score in New York to the Jets (!) in the final six weeks of the season. 25* NFL Blowout Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (462) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (301) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-2) is winless in their first two games of the season after their 31-28 loss at home to Buffalo last Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. Jacksonville (1-1) comes off a 33-30 loss at Tennessee as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: There sure is a lot of love all of the sudden for this Jaguars’ team that was considered to be “tankin’ for Trevor” to get the opportunity to draft Trevor Lawrence as their franchise quarterback. But second-year QB Gardner Minshew is completing 75.4% of his passes with six touchdown passes and undrafted rookie running back James Robinson has emerged with 164 rushing yards to make their supporters understand why they released Leonard Fournette in training camp. Yet Jacksonville has still failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to an AFC South rival. And while Minshew threw for 339 yards against the Titans defense, the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. Keep in mind that it was Minshew’s two interceptions on Sunday that helped the Titans overcome being outgained by a 480 to 354 yardage margin to the Jaguars. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 43 of their last 69 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 100 yards. Minshew may be without one of his top targets in wide receiver D.J. Chark who is listed as questionable with a chest injury. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home game when favored. And not only have the Jaguars failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after surrendering at least 30 points. Miami has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and the have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two straight contests to AFC East rivals. In head coach Brian Flores I trust to get this team focused on a short week. Remember, this team was supposedly “tankin’ for Tua” last year before they rallied from an 0-7 start to the season by then winning five of their last nine games. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is inconsistent but it was the good version of him on Sunday as he completed 31 of 47 passes against an outstanding Bills defense for 328 passing yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. Getting wide receiver DeVante Parker healthy and back on the field is a big help for Fitzmagic — Parker has 78 catches for 1227 receiving yards with 10 touchdown passes in his last sixteen games. The Dolphins generated 410 yards of offense last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Miami has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: There is inherent value with the underdog in this one — and the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as the dog. Miami has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month is on the Miami Dolphins (301) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (290) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (289). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (1-0) comes off a 34-30 win at Carolina where they were 3-point favorites. New Orleans (1-0) enters this game coming off a 34-23 win at home to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is one of the rare instances in professional sports where the home field advantage will be at it’s most diminished. Not only will there be no crowd support tonight given COVID-19 restrictions but head coach Jon Gruden’s team lacks a familiarity and comfort level edge (which I think is under-appreciated) since will be their very first game played at Allegiant Stadium. I have studied home advantage closely — especially over the summer when handicapping European soccer that began the crowd-free experiences in the globe’s Project Restart. Psychologists do make an argument that there is an edge for home teams given their sense of territoriality. It is a theory — and impossible to quantity since it is difficult to accurately measure this motivation. This Raiders team will certainly want to establish that their new “Death Star” is their “turf.” Las Vegas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home as an underdog — and while the “home” part is not a strong lagging indicator for this game, it is telling that they have performed better when their opponent lacks a home crowd and familiarity advantage. And while the Raiders did allow 260 passing yards last week to the Panthers, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And in their last 5 games on Monday Night Football, Las Vegas (as the Oakland Raiders) are 4-1-1 ATS. The final score for the Saints was a bit deceiving with one of their touchdowns being score from a 36-yard interception. New Orleans had a +3 net turnover margin — but they managed to generate only 271 yards of offense. This team has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games after enjoying a +3 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Saints averaged just 4.1 Yards-Per-Play against the Buccaneers which was the 2nd lowest average of all teams in Week One. Quarterback Drew Brees completed just 18 of his 30 passes for only 160 yards. His adjusted completion percentage was just 24th best in the league last week after missing a handful of open receivers. Maybe it was just one bad week without the benefit of the preseason — or maybe Father Time is beginning to catch up with the 41-year old. Brees will not have the benefit of his favorite target in Michael Thomas who is out with an ankle injury. The Saints did add wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders in the offseason — and I expect them to use running back Alvin Kamara as a slot receiver in passing downs — but this is an offensive not at full strength without their best weapon in the passing attack. Thomas caught a whopping 149 catches last year for 1725 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win over an NFC South rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit win over a divisional foe. The Saints were outgained in that contest against the Buccaneers by -41 yards last week. Tampa Bay was 2nd in the league last year with +15 net turnovers — but what happens to this team if they do not win the turnover battle?

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the first two weeks of the new season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in Week Two of the season under head coach Sean Payton. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Las Vegas Raiders (290) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (289). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (287) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (288). THE SITUATION: New England (1-0) won their opening game of the season last week with their 21-11 win over Miami as a 7-point favorite. Seattle (1-0) also won their debut to the 2020 season with their 38-25 victory over Atlanta where they closed as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England should build off their momentum from last week as they are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games after a point spread win. The new-look Cam Newton run offense was clicking on all cylinders last week as they generated 357 total yards of offense on the strength of 202 rushing yards on 42 rushing attempts. The analytics folks tend to dismiss time of possession — perhaps that is one of the reasons they tend to replicate coin flips when making ATS prognostications? I assign plenty of value to the Patriots’ controlling the clock for 34:49 minutes last week. Not only does that keep the opposing offense off the field, but it keeps your own defense relatively fresh with one or two fewer defensive possessions they have to play in the game. That makes a big deal when coaching-up younger players. It is telling that New England is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they are also an impressive 42-20-2 ATS in their last 64 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Cam Newton looked like a young man fully-healthy again with the mental reset of playing in a new environment. Don’t underestimate how much injuries have slowed him down since his Super Bowl run with Carolina a few years ago. Newton was an efficient 15 of 19 for 155 yards while averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt last week. He also ran the ball 15 times for 75 yards with two touchdowns. When he is healthy, he is simply money in short-yardage situations. And don’t sleep on the New England defense despite losing a handful of players who opted-out this season. The Patriots’ secondary remains elite led by cornerback Stephon Gilmour. The front-seven is a work-in-progress which is why controlling possession is so important. New England limited the Dolphins to just 169 yards of offense last week while averaging a mere 4.6 Yards-Per-Play — and they forced three turnovers. Since the start of 2019, the Patriots lead the NFL in these defensive categories still: allowing 13.9 PPG; allowing only 275.5 total YPG; 28 interceptions; opponent Passer Rating of 61.7. New England has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. It is not often that Belichick-coached teams are underdogs — and New England is 34-15-3 ATS in their last 52 games when getting the points. Seattle defeated the (now 0-2) Falcons last week despite being outgained by -123 net yards in that game. The Seahawks surrendered a troubling 506 yards to Atlanta in that game. Seattle has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win. The defense improved significantly with the acquisition of Jamal Adams — but this team remains suspect with both their offensive and defensive lines. The Seahawks are just 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has the reputation for having a strong home-field advantage — but they will be without their “twelfth man advantage” with no fans in the crowd raising the decibel levels. As it is, the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (287) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (272) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (271). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 21-11 loss at New England as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (1-0) comes off a 27-17 win at home against the New York Jets as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami struggled to generate offense against the tough Patriots defense — they managed only 169 yards of offense last week. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick struggled with three interceptions last week. But Fitzmagic has a nice track record when facing the Bills. In his last four games against Buffalo, Fitzpatrick is averaging 297.3 passing YPG while completing 68.8% of his passes with four touchdown passes and just one interception while posting a Passer Rating of 100.1. Head coach Brian Flores usually gets every ounce of talent from his roster — and he should have his team play hard this afternoon. The Dolphins have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road. Miami has also been a dangerous underdog under Flores as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when getting the points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as the underdog. Additionally, the Dolphins should have a home edge with the Bills traveling to muggy South Beach. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after a win at home against an AFC East rival. The Bills have also failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 30 games after a double-digit win over a divisional foe. Buffalo has sky-high expectations this season with New England perhaps taking a step back in the post-Tom Brady era. But the Bills are loaded with injuries — especially at linebacker with starters Matt Milano and stud Tremaine Edmunds out for this game. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has won the last three meetings between these two teams after sweeping both games last year. The Bills won in South Beach in the most recent encounter on November 17th by a 37-20 score as a 7-point favorite. Flores probably had Buffalo as his number one work priority in the offseason — and in Flores I trust. 25* AFC East Game of the Month with the Miami Dolphins (272) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (102) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (101). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (0-1) got shellacked in Baltimore against the Ravens by a 38-6 score as a 7-point underdog. Cincinnati (0-1) began the Joe Burrow era on Sunday with a disappointing 16-13 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: It is already a gut-check moment for this Cleveland team who cannot afford to start the season 0-2 with two losses against divisional rivals. This team is ravaged with injuries on both sides of the football (especially on defense) — but they did get some good news that wide receiver Jarvis Landry will likely be able to play tonight. This team is loaded with talent so the injuries are not nearly as devastating as what the Bengals are also facing. The formula for success should be to run the football with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt against a suspect Cincinnati defense to set up the play-action pass to Landry and Odell Beckham. Falling behind by a 24-6 score by halftime took Cleveland out of what they want to accomplish on offense with their running game. Yet Chubb and Hunt were the only running backs in Week One to average over 3.0 Yards-After-Contact (Chubb: 3.5 Yards-After-Contact average; Hunt: 3.3 Yards-After-Contact average) — so the potential is there for them to dominate this Bengals defense. If and when the Browns take the lead, they will get the Bengals to play from behind which will afford Myles Garrett and company to expose a weak and depleted offensive line to attack a rookie quarterback playing on a short week. That recipe is easier to execute than asking a new head coach Kevin Stefanski to have his team ready to play a 14-win Baltimore team with new schemes and a new coaching staff without the benefit of preseason games in the opening week of the season. Cleveland should respond with a better effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least four touchdowns to an AFC North rival. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game. Additionally, the Browns are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home as a favorite. Cincinnati only generated 295 yards of offense last week against the Chargers’ defense. Burrow completed 23 of 36 passes for 193 yards with no touchdown passes and an interception — but he was not given much time. Burrow averaged only 2.21 seconds per throw in his 36 attempts which is not much time for a rookie quarterback. The Bengals have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL — and that unit will be without right guard Xavier Su’a-Filo who is out with an ankle injury. Now the rookie quarterback is challenged with learning from his mistakes on Sunday while preparing for the Browns defense on a short week. Rookie quarterbacks have a dismal record in the first half of the season when playing on a short week for Thursday Night Football. These rookie QBs have only won once in seven starts while throwing ten interceptions to just one touchdown. Cincinnati is also banged up on defense with defensive tackles Geno Atkins and Mike Daniels out tonight and starting cornerback Trae Waynes already on injured reserve. Moving forward, the Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after playing a low-scoring game that finished Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing on Thursday Night. The Browns will play much better tonight simply by substituting out a loaded Ravens team for this Bengals group. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (102) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (477) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (478). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) begins the new era of head coach Mike McCarthy tonight as he replaces Jason Garrett after his ten-year tenure ended with the Cowboys’ 8-8 finish last season. Los Angeles (0-0) looks to get back to the playoffs after missing the postseason last year despite their 9-7 record.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): I was leaning to taking Dallas in this game before conducting my deep dive — and I am more convinced after that survey while being pleasantly surprised that the steam has been on the Rams to make them a small favorite in many spots. I think the oddsmakers were right to install Dallas as the initial favorite. They deserved better last season. They outscored their opponents by +7.0 PPG while outgaining them by +104.5 net YPG. Those are numbers that usually equate with teams that finish in the 11-5 range. What happened? The Cowboys endured five net close losses in their six games decided by one possession. That is the ultimate reason why Garrett is gone a former Super Bowl-winning head coach is now in charge. McCarthy is not enlisted to win more close games but to also oversee his team pulling away in games they are winning so they do not get decided by one or two bad breaks. Dallas was a very good road team last year who outgained their opponents by +65.8 YPG away from home. This consistency also made Dallas a very live dog. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when getting the points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games on the road with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Los Angeles hosts this game but does has only the thinnest of home-field advantages. Without fans, these home teams lack the energy that a crowd can offer. In the NFL, that does play more of a role than the other sports taking place right now because loud stadiums disrupt the quarterback’s ability to communicate at the line of scrimmage. The noise the NFL is allowing home teams to pipe into their stadium is so minimal it has little effect. Prescott will be able to audible verbally at the line of scrimmage tonight without any issues. But the Rams are also making their debut in their new SoFi Stadium — so they do not even get the underrated advantage of familiarity when playing at home. Head coach Sean McVay’s team has had two practices in their new facility — big deal.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles was actually outgained and outscored when playing at home last year — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Would the Rams be favored if this game was being played on a neutral field? I don’t think so — and this is essentially what SoFi Stadium is for McVay’s team without cheering fans in the stadium nor a sense of familiarity or comfort in the confines. Dallas crushed LA last December 15th by a 44-21 score. While I do not expect another 23-point win, are the changes between these two teams that dramatic? I think this Cowboys team is better with McCarthy leading the way. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Dallas Cowboys (477) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (476) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (475). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (0-0) returns to the field again after losing in overtime in the NFC Divisional Playoffs to Minnesota last year by a 26-20 score. Tampa Bay (0-0) comes in with big expectations after signing Tom Brady in the offseason to upgrade their team that finished 7-9 last season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Buccaneers are a trendy Super Bowl pick with Brady joining a team loaded with offensive talent along with an underrated defense. But I suspect that it will take some time for this team to begin to gel on offense. Tampa Bay could have used preseason games to help get Brady and his offense in synch against hostile competition. Brady had a tendency to start slow with the Patriots — they were just 4-4 ATS in their last eight games played in September. He may not have one of his best weapons available to him either with wide receiver Mike Evans listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. In theory, Brady improves this team because he will eliminate all the interceptions that Jameis Winston threw over the years. But on the other hand, the Buccaneers were 3rd in the NFL last year by scoring 28.6 PPG while averaging 397.3 total YPG — and there is no guarantee that this offense maintains that level of productivity under Brady who does not have as strong an arm as Winston. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC South opponents. The Buccaneers are also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog. New Orleans has a big edge in continuity with Drew Brees and the entire coaching staff returning to make one last push for another Super Bowl championship. The Saints have few weaknesses with all their units on both sides of the ball being at least considered above average — and they have an elite offensive line along with their special teams. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games in the first half of the season. They also have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Brady inherits a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with the Saints. The continuity edge for New Orleans should help them exceed point spread expectations in this Week One showdown. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-New Orleans Fox-TV Special with the New Orleans Saints (476) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (451). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (0-0) kicks off the 2020-21 season at home after their 31-20 triumph in the Super Bowl over San Francisco. Houston (0-0) has the first crack at them with revenge on their minds after losing to them at Arrowhead Stadium by a 51-31 score. There will be fans in the stadium tonight with capacity capped around 22% given concerns social distancing protocols.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: If the importance of coaching staff will be even more significant after an offseason adapting to COVID-19 and the lack of preseason games, then assign a big advantage to Andy Reid and his assistants. Reid’s success coming off bye weeks have become legendary — but he usually also gets his team to outperform expectations early in the season. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games in September — and this includes them covering the point spread in four of their last five opening games to a new season. The Chiefs will also have the benefit of continuity with twenty of their twenty-two starters back from last year’s championship team along with the entire coaching staff. Kansas City is without their Super Bowl starting running back in Damien Williams who opted out due to COVID-19 concerns — but they addressed that issue by drafting LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first round. The rookie has been compared to pass-catching running backs like Darren Sproules — but assistant coach Kevin Faulk made the eye-popping comparison to Barry Sanders which would make this offense downright scary if even close to being accurate. The Kansas City defense did improve in the second half of the season under first-year defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo — they led the NFL after Week Ten by holding their opponents to just 11.5 PPG with Baltimore being the next stingiest by limiting teams to only 13.3 PPG during that span through the regular season. Spagnuolo runs a complicated system that takes time for defenses to master — so a big jump in competency for this unit now in his second season is likely. The Chiefs are led by safety Tyrann Mathieu who may very well have been the most valuable player on defense in the league last year. Kansas City will have the advantage of familiarity playing at home tonight where they are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games. The Chiefs are also 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games when favored. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Texans’ big move in the offseason was trading wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona for running back David Johnson. Houston has an interesting set of wide receivers that are probably underrated — but it will take for them to gel with quarterback Deshaun Watson. Brandin Cooks was brought in from the Rams but he is listed as questionable with a quad injury for this game. The absence of Hopkins in being Watson’s go-to receiver will have its biggest impact early in the season. And while I think head coach Bill O’Brien is too often a punching bag for pundits, a fair assessment would be that he may face bigger obstacles in getting his team ready to play this season. The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the opening two weeks of the season. Furthermore, Houston’s 10-6 regular season record was deceptive of a team that was both outscored and outgained by their opponents during the regular season. The Texans survived +5 net close victories decided by one-scoring possession last year. They only held a lead for just over 37% of their games last year as well.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 appearances on Thursday Night Football. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (101). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-4) has won eight straight games with their 35-24 victory over Tennessee on January 19th in the AFC Conference Championship Game as a 7.5-point favorite. San Francisco (15-3) joined them in the Super Bowl later that day with their 37-20 victory over Green Bay as an 8-point favorite. The Super Bowl will be played on a neutral field in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Frankly, I began to consider Kansas City a team of destiny when they rallied from their 24-0 deficit to Houston to win that game by a 51-31 score in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. With New England losing to the Titans that weekend, it just looked like the seas were beginning to part for head coach Andy Reid to finally win his first Super Bowl after long being considered one of the dean’s of NFL coaches. Reid has led his teams to victory in twenty-one of their last twenty-four games after a bye week with his teams also posting a 19-9 ATS record after a bye week in his coaching career. After everything went as I expected in both Conference Championship Games, I was prepared to officially endorse the Chiefs in this game — but I decided to wait to watch the line movement for a few days while also clearing my head to help ensure I was not succumbing to confirmation bias. The best argument for the San Francisco side of the equation relates to the success of underdogs in the Super Bowl coming in with the better defense. So I looked at the Chiefs record against Top-Ten defenses (as decided by the weighted DVOA metric at Football Outsiders). Kansas City faced three top-seven defenses this season: at New England (#4th in DVOA weighted defense); home to Minnesota (#7th in DVOA weighted defense); home to Baltimore (#2nd in DVOA weighted defense). The Chiefs won all three games with the average score being 27.3-22.3. Furthermore, Kansas City averaged 408.7 YPG in those three games with 288 of those yards coming in the air at a 7.71 Yards-Per-Attempt clip — and those numbers compare pretty favorably to their 29.8 PPG, 383.4 total YPG and 283 passing YPG at a 7.9 YPA season average entering this game. The most telling game seems to be the Chiefs’ 33-28 win against the Ravens since the Baltimore team’s physical presence along with their emphasis on a power rushing attack is similar to the San Francisco formula for success. I then looked at how Kansas City performed against Top-Ten rushing attacks (as defined by DVOA). The Chiefs had five games against Top-Eight rushing offenses according to DVOA. I threw out the loss to Green Bay since that was one of the two games that Patrick Mahomes missed due to injury. Kansas City was 2-2 in those other four games as they defeated the Ravens while losing to Indianapolis and splitting two games with the Titans. The average score in those two games was 28.3 to 26.8 in favor of the Chiefs. And while they allowed 173.3 rushing YPG in those four contests with opposing rushers averaging 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry, that did not stop the Mahomes-led offense to average 440.3 total YPG (almost 60 YPG above their season average). With those past results, I am unpersuaded that the elite 49ers defense nor their ability to effectively run the football will significantly slow down Mahomes and this powerful KC offense. It is hard to then ignore that the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least two in a row by double-digits. Kansas City has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game including those last four situations. San Francisco is riding high after their easy win over the Packers where they raced out to a 24-0 halftime lead. But the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 35 of their last 54 road games after a victory by at least 14 points. Furthermore, San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. The red flag regarding the outstanding 49ers’ defense is they have tended to struggle against mobile quarterbacks. In looking at their four games against NFC West rivals Seattle and Arizona with Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray along with their game against Baltimore with Lamar Jackson, San Francisco did win just three of those games with the average scoring being 26.2-23.8 (and while that is still a winning margin, it is -9.9 net PPG plummet from their +12.3 PPG net differential for the season). The Niners held the offenses in those five games to 318 YPG which is still very low — but it is also +39 YPG more than their season average. Those quarterbacks completed 67.5% of their 154 combined passes in those games while averaging 192.0 passing YPG which was +22.8 passing YPG above their season average. Perhaps most importantly for this game, the quarterbacks ran for a combined 284 yards in those five games on 43 carries for 6.6 Yards-Per-Carry average while adding 56.8 rushing YPG. What is critical about these rushing numbers is that they are more likely to occur on 3rd and 4th downs and/or in the Red Zone. Mahomes is usually frugal when deciding to run the football — but he did average 15.6 rushing YPG this season on 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry. This is an area where he may take advantage of the Niners’ outstanding four-man rush. Mahomes will likely also pick on 49ers’ cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon who Pro Football Focus ranks as the 50th of the 95 cornerbacks who had at least 300 snaps this season. Witherspoon has wilted at times this season when his confidence gets shaken while struggling in the Red Zone — and this Chiefs’ offense is loaded with weapons that will preclude the Niners from hiding Witherspoon. The Niners did bench Witherspoon in the playoffs for undrafted free agent Emmanuel Moseley — but at 5’11 and 190-lbs, he is a matchup nightmare against the 6’5 and 260-lb Travis Kelce even if his player was an improvement over Witherspoon. Kansas City is 5th in the NFL by averaging 281.1 passing YPG — and the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after eight games into the season against teams who average at least 260 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Once I concluded that the San Francisco defense is not likely to slow down Mahomes and this Chiefs’ offense, the edge Kansas City has at quarterback will likely be the difference. Jimmy Garoppolo is a fine QB who has executed quite well on 3rd down and deserves tons of credit for outdueling Drew Brees in the Niners’ 48-46 win in New Orleans. But Garoppolo is still a bit inexperienced in big games when compared to Mahomes who was winning a coin flip away from winning the AFC Championship Game in overtime last year against the Patriots from reaching the Super Bowl. There are also some throws that Garoppolo struggles with as he continues to develop. While it doesn’t mean everything, it does something that head coach Kyle Shanahan asked Garoppolo to throw the ball only 14 times after his bad interception in the NFC Divisional Playoff round game against Minnesota. Frankly, probably every QB in the NFL right now is at a disadvantage to Mahomes. KC also has a decided edge in Special Teams in this game. With the point spread closer to pick ‘em than the hook, look for Superman Mahomes to fulfill what seems to be his destiny while finally codifying Reid in the pantheon of the elite head coaches in NFL history. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (312) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (311). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (14-3) has won three straight games after they dispatched of Minnesota last week by a 27-10 score as a 7-point favorite. Green Bay (14-3) has won six straight games with their 28-23 win over Seattle last week as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least three games in a row. This Green Bay team has been difficult to figure out when considering that they are being outgained this season. The Packers have seen ten of their opponents win the yardage battle against them which is a hard way to win fourteen of one’s seventeen games. The football analytics community is well behind other sports (most notably, basketball) in appreciating that, while winning or losing close games often is a function of luck (or, better phrased: coin flip situations that can go either way that then have a disproportionate impact on the outcome of the game), there are attributes that help teams win close games. Free throw proficiency helps teams win close games in basketball. Outstanding quarterback play helps teams win close games in football. Aaron Rodgers may have seen his productivity decline since 2016 — but he is still very good in crunch time (and he avoids negative plays like interceptions). So, having said all that regarding my appreciation for this Packers’ team, this is a bad matchup for them. San Francisco controls the clock on offense for 32:01 minutes per game — and Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams who average at least 32 minutes per game on offense. The Niners are 2nd in the NFL by averaging 29.9 PPG — and the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 24 PPG. And while the San Francisco defense holds their opponents to just 5.2 Passing Yards-Per-Attempt, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who do not allow more than 5.2 YPA in the passing game after eight games into the season. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win at home. The 49ers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The San Francisco defense flexed their muscles in that game by holding the Vikings to just 147 total yards. The 49ers have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 200 yards in their last contest. And while their game last week finished well below the 44.5 point total, San Francisco has then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Niners defense ranks 2nd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 281.8 total YPG — and this unit has been fortified with the return of Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford from injuries. The 49ers get to host this game in Levi Stadium where they are 7-2 this season with an average winning margin of +13.2 PPG. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The 49ers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay is looking to avenge a 37-8 loss at San Francisco back on November 24th. A concern with this Packers team is that they are soft on the offensive and defensive line — and the physical 49ers were able to expose that vulnerability. Maybe (probably). I am persuaded with Green Bay failing to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they surrendered at least 28 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least four touchdowns. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (312) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (313). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-4) rallied from a 24-0 deficit last Sunday to crush Houston by a 51-31 score. Tennessee (11-7) comes off a 28-12 upset win at Baltimore as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: I suspect that the Titans are due for a huge emotional letdown after pulling off two straight upset victories. Tennessee has been on the road for three straight weeks — and pulling off three “must-win” games away from home is a very difficult achievement. Asking this team to pull this feat on the road for a fourth consecutive week is simply a bridge too far. As it is, the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Tennessee has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after pulling off an upset win by at least 14 points on the road as an underdog. Furthermore, the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least three straight games. The formula for success for this team is to run Derrick Henry against the suspect Chiefs run defense. However, that is a plan that will not work if Kansas City takes an early lead which I expect them to do on their home field. Even during their three-game winning streak, Tennessee has been outgained by -33.0 YPG. And in their ten games on the road, the Titans have been outgained by -2.3 net YPG despite their 7-3 record away from home. Additionally, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Kansas City should build off their momentum from last week as they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Chiefs are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a victory by at least two touchdowns. Kansas City generated 434 yards of offense against the Houston defense in that win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. But the Chiefs defense did look vulnerable by allowing 442 yards to the Texans. However, Kansas City is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Chiefs get to host this game in Arrowhead Stadium where they have outscored their opponents by +6.6 PPG. They have also outscored their last three opponents by +17.7 PPG while putting up 36.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. The Chiefs average 281.1 passing YPG — and the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after eight games into the season against teams who average at least 260 passing YPG. 20* NFL Tennessee-Kansas City CBS-TV Special with the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (307) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (308). THE SITUATION: Seattle (12-5) snapped a two-game losing streak last week with their 17-9 upset win at Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog. Green Bay (13-3) has won five straight games after they closed out the regular season with a 23-20 win at Detroit as a 13.5-point favorite back on December 29th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Even with all their injuries at running back and on the offensive line, Seattle generated 382 yards of offense against the solid Eagles defense that had been holding their visitors to just 273.6 YPG before that game. In Russell Wilson, we trust. He completed 18 of 30 passes for 325 yards with a touchdown while adding another 45 yards on the ground. Wilson did not throw an interception in that game either — and his mere 5 interceptions this season on 516 passes for a microscopic 1% interception rate will likely play a big role in this game. How did the Packers win 13 games despite getting outgained in yardage this season? One of the reasons is certainly their +12 net turnover margin — but they are unlikely (don’t jinx it, Sawyer) to enjoys a turnover advantage against this Seahawks’ team that emphasizes minimizing negative risk under head coach Pete Carroll. The Seahawks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after gaining at least 300 passing yards in their last game. Seattle is a dangerous underdog given the high level coaching of Carroll and the playmaking of Wilson with that combination leading to an incredible 11-2 mark in one-scoring games (something I do not think is merely a fluke since it is precisely Carroll’s formula for success this season with a somewhat limited roster). The Seahawks is 34-16-3 ATS in their last 53 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, Wilson has led his teams at Seattle to a 26-13-2 ATS mark an underdog in his career which includes covering the point spread in ten of these last twelve situations as the dog. Wilson has also seen his team cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games with seven outright upset victories as an underdog getting at least 4 points. The Seahawks are road warriors this season with an 8-1 record away from home while outscoring their home hosts by +4.3 PPG due to their defense allowing just 19.8 PPG. Seattle is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games on the road — and they are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win on the road. The Packers return home to Lambeau Field after playing their last two games on the road — but not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after playing a game on the road, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing two straight games on the road. And while Green Bay has covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Packers were a bit more fortunate to pullout all eight of their games decided by one scoring possession. I do give credit to Aaron Rodgers for that success — the football analytics community is a few laps behind the basketball community in beginning to appreciate that winning close games is not purely an issue of luck. But avoiding bad luck in winning one-possession games is at least somewhat a result of good fortunes. The Pythagorean-calculated win total for Green Bay drops to 9.8 wins. Additionally, the Packers have only defeated one team with a quarterback that led his team to the playoffs — Kirk Cousins. Green Bay defeated Kansas City when Matt Moore was playing for an injured Deshaun Watson while losing by a 34-27 score to Philadelphia and getting blown out by a 37-8 score to San Francisco.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers game failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Seattle has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games as an underdog. 10* NFL Seattle-Green Bay Fox-TV Special with the Seattle Seahawks (307) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (305). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-4) ended the regular season winning six straight games with their 31-21 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 10-point favorite. Houston (11-6) has won three of their last four contests with their 22-19 win over Buffalo in overtime last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They should build off the momentum of their six-game winning streak as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit win against a divisional rival. And in their last 7 games after a home win against an AFC West foe, Kansas City has covered the point spread 6 times. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has not had as spectacular a fantasy season this year — but he still leads a potent offense that is 5th in the NFL by scoring 28.2 PPG while leading a passing attack that is also 5th in the league by averaging 281.5 passing YPG (despite their dynamic wide receiver, Tyreek Hill, missing some games). But the impressive aspect of this Chiefs’ team is the bump in the play of defensive coordinator’s Steve Spagnuolo unit in the second year in his system which has become commonplace after similar results occurred at his previous spots (including with a Super Bowl-winning NY Giants team). Kansas City has held its last six opponents to just 11.5 PPG — and their last three opponents have scored only 9.0 PPG while averaging just 283.7 total YPG. The Chiefs ended the season 8th in the NFL in opponent’s Expected Points Added per play and 7th in opponent’s EPA on pass plays. Kansas City now retains big situational advantages getting an extra week to rest and prepare while staying at home for three weeks. Head coach Andy Ryan has seen his teams cover the point spread in 18 of their 27 games coming off a bye week in his career. The Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home. And in their last 10 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 7 of these games. Houston may be due for a letdown as they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Frankly, this is a team that has been carried by Deshaun Watson who is frequently asked to overcome a shaky defense and a head coach in Bill O’Brien who does not always put his team in the best position to succeed given his tactical decisions. The Texans are being outscored this season by -0.5 PPG. They are also being outgained by -26.3 YPG — and this gets worse on the road where they have been outgained by -48.0 net YPG when playing on the road. Houston’s defense is below average as they allow 388.3 total YPG which is 28th in the league — and they have surrendered 442.3 total YPG over their last three contests. The Texans have spent much of the season trailing in their games which is very strange for a team that won eleven games in the regular season. And this Houston team has been outscored by a 34-0 score in the first half of their last two playoff games under O’Brien’s command after going into halftime last week at home by a 13-0 score to the Bills. Mahomes will punish this Texans team if they continue to be that anemic in the first half of this one. Now after playing their last two games at home, Houston goes on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the October 13th encounter between these two teams in Arrowhead Stadium as well where the Texans pulled off a 31-24 upset victory as a 3.5-point underdog. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss decided by a touchdown or less — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with same-season revenge from an upset loss. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (304) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (303). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (14-2) has won twelve games in a row with their 28-10 upset win at Pittsburgh to end the regular season as a 2-point underdog back on December 29th. Tennessee (10-7) has won their last two games after their 20-13 upset victory at New England as a 4.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: It was a very emotional victory for head Mike Vrabel who led his Titans team into Foxboro to defeat his former team where he starred as a player. They survived that game despite managing only 272 yards of offense while being outgained by -35 net yards — and remember that the score looks more decisive only because of their pick-six interception return for a touchdown that ended the game. If the Patriots convert a touchdown late in the first half when they were on the 1-yard line rather than settle for a field goal, then the complexion of that game probably changes. Don’t be surprised if this team experiences an emotional letdown after two monster games where they had to defeat Houston on the road to even make the playoffs before knocking off the reigning champions on the road last week. Tennessee benefited from winning the turnover battle in these last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enjoying a +1 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. Derrick Henry has led the way for this team as they have rushed for 245 and 201 yards in these last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in two straight contests. The Titans have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Consistency has been a problem for this team as they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning at least two in a row. Tennessee has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. This is a very difficult assignment now facing a playoff team on the road for the third consecutive week. The Ravens are outscoring their opponents by +15.2 PPG — and the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +10 PPG. And while Baltimore leads the NFL by scoring 33.2 PPG, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 28 PPG. The Ravens were an underdog last week with the Steelers because they rested key players including quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Ravens still scored four touchdowns with Robert Griffin III under center against a good Pittsburgh defense that needed a win along with a Titans loss to reach the playoffs. So here comes a rested Jackson along with Mark Ingram whose injured calf is improving late this week who leads an offense that leads the NFL by scoring 33.2 PPG while ranking 2nd in the league by averaging 407.6 total YPG. What makes this Ravens’ offense so difficult to stop is their ability to play in “13” personnel with one running back and three tight ends who can all catch the ball. While the formation helps a heavy rushing attack, all three of those tight ends can catch the ball while offering Jackson a huge target down the field. Jackson faces a Titans’ defense that ranks 24th in the NFL by allowing 255.0 passing YPG. Baltimore also boasts the NFL’s top rushing attack that averages 206.0 rushing YPG. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory by at least two touchdowns. But while the Baltimore offense gets most of the credit, don’t sleep on this Ravens defense that is 3rd in the NFL by allowing 17.6 PPG and 4th in the league by giving up only 300.6 total YPG. And since the team acquired Marcus Peters with Jimmy Smith getting healthy again to give the defense two elite cover cornerbacks, the Ravens have boasted the top statistical defense in the NFL in points allowed and yardage allowed. Those two cover corners provide the Ravens the luxury to place eight defenders in the box to slow down Henry rushing out of the backfield.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams from the AFC. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 playoff games under head coach John Harbaugh. Tennessee is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Baltimore. 10* NFL Tennessee-Baltimore CBS-TV Special with the Baltimore Ravens (304) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (302) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (301). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (13-3) closed out the regular season winning their last two games after their 26-21 victory at Seattle for Sunday Night Football back on December 29th as a 3.5-point favorite. Minnesota (11-6) snapped a two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 26-20 upset win in overtime at New Orleans as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: That was a huge emotional victory for tat Vikings team on the road and particularly for Kirk Cousins who may have permanently removed the proverbial money that has been on his back regarding his failure to step up in big games. Cousins was solid but not spectacular against the Saints by completing 19 of 31 passes for 242 yards with a touchdown pass. But this situation is eerily similar to Minnesota’s miracle victory over New Orleans in the playoffs two years ago under head coach Mike Zimmer which was then followed up by them being completely flat on the road to another number one seed in the NFC at Philadelphia with the Eagles crushing them by a 38-7 score. As it is, the Vikings have only covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. Frankly, I don’t think Minnesota wins that game if Drew Brees does commit that rare fumble that he suffered in what looked like a go-ahead drive midway through the 4th quarter. And then winning the coin flip in overtime helped tremendously as the Vikings then scored a touchdown to negate Brees get another chance with the football. Despite the victory, Minnesota is still only scoring 18.3 PPG over their last three contests while averaging just 267.0 total YPG over that span which is far below their 25.4 PPG and 353.5 total YPG season average. They did get running back Dalvin Cook back last week after he took the last couple of games off to close out the regular season — but he is still averaging just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry in his last seven games. The Vikings wide receivers are also less than 100% this week with Stefan Diggs dealing with an illness and Adam Thielen suffering an ankle injury that may slow him down. These are not great developments for a team that is used to playing on artificial turf as they did again last week. But when playing on grass as will be the case in Levi Stadium, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games. San Francisco secured their bye week and home field throughout the NFC playoffs with their clutch victory on the road against the Seahawks. The 49ers held Seattle scoreless in the first half of that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. QB Jimmy Garoppolo was very sharp in that game as he completed 18 of 22 passes for 285 yards while leading an offense that generated 398 total yards. The Niners are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. San Francisco has won five of their last seven games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The 49ers are 2nd in the league by scoring 29.9 PPG — and that number rises to 32.4 PPG at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +12.8 PPG and outgained their guests by +108.3 net YPG. San Francisco is also 2nd in the NFL by limiting their opponents to only 281.8 total YPG — and they will be getting the heart and soul of their defense back for this game in Kwon Alexander who has missed half the season with his chest injury.

FINAL TAKE: Teams unfamiliar with this Niners team has struggled as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against non-divisional opponents. San Francisco has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Minnesota’s victory last week was just their first win on the road against a team with a winning record all season. It was also just their first playoff win on the road since 2004. Yet the Vikings have still failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (302) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (148) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (147). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (9-7) has won four straight games with their 34-17 win at New York against the Giants as a 4-point favorite. Seattle (11-5) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Both of these teams are hit hard by injuries. The good news for Philadelphia is that it looks like tight end Zach Ertz, running back Miles Sanders, and cornerback Jalen Mills will take the field today. Yet even relying on former practice squad, head coach Doug Pederson and his offensive coaching staff have been making things work. Over their last three games, the Eagles have scored 29.3 PPG along with averaging 415.3 total YPG. The foundation has been quarterback Carson Wentz who has asserted himself as the leader of this team. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a double-digit victory. The coaching staff has been forced to be innovative with all their injuries but they are finding ways to move the football. For example, since Week Fourteen, Wentz has completed 28 of his 31 screen passes for 237 yards which is the most in the NFL over that span. Pederson is not stranger to coaching his team up in the playoffs as an underdog — over the last three seasons, he has lead his team to four upset wins in five playoff games when getting the points. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 playoff games as the underdog. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games in January. Furthermore, Philadelphia has held their eight visitors to just 16.7 PPG along with only 273.6 total YPG which has helped them cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. Seattle has been the beneficiary of turnover luck and mossed field goal luck which has helped them overcome getting outgained in yardage this season. And while the Seahawks are 7-1 on the road this year, they are being outgained by -6.8 net YPG overall in those games. Seattle has lost their original top three running backs on their depth chart to injury. Left tackle Duane Brown is also out with his biceps injury which takes away the most effective offensive lineman from a unit that ranks just 24th in Adjusted Sack Rate. The Seahawks are being outgained by -74.7 net YPG over their last three games given a slowed-down offense that is scoring only 21.3 PPG while averaging 333.3 total YPG during that span. Russell Wilson’s potential MVP campaign has waned in the second half of the season. After posting 100+ QB Ratings in eight of his first nine games, Wilson has registered just one game earning a QBR of 100 or better over his last seven starts. Seattle did not score in the first half last week against the 49ers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread after failing to score at least a field goal in the first half of their last game. They also are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against NFC opponents. And in their last 7 games in the playoffs, the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Seattle’s 17-9 victory in Philly back on November 24th. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 52 games when looking to avenge a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 52 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score at least 14 points. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Philadelphia Eagles (148) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (146) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (145). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-6) has lost two straight games with their 21-19 loss to Chicago at home last week as a 5-point underdog. New Orleans (13-3) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 42-10 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 13.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Vikings have not won on the road in the playoffs since 2004 — and they have lost eleven of their last thirteen road games in the playoffs going back to 1988. And with zero wins on the road against a team that finished with a winning record this season, I don’t think this team has the confidence to hang with the Saints when playing in the Big Easy in what will be a very energetic environment. A blind-spot with analytics in sports across the board is the tendency to treat every statistical moment as the same. But as we saw yesterday when the Buffalo Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen went on tilt late in that game where the urgency of the moment compelled him to make ill-advised backward pitches. The pressure of the playoffs impacts even professional athletes (ask the Houston Rockets when they were missing 28 3-pointers in a row in a Game Seven against Golden State). Maybe if Kirk Cousins had not gone 12 of 21 for just 126 yards in a critical game at home against Green Bay two weeks ago, I would feel better about his progression as a quarterback. Cousins clearly feels the pressure of leading this team that has Super Bowl talent at most other positions. I just cannot get over numbers like this: Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning record; they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. They are scoring only 22.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 261.0 total YPG over that span. They are also just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread win. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Ever since their 26-9 loss at home to Atlanta on November 10th, the Saints have been dynamite on offense as they have scored at least 26 points in all seven games while scoring at least 34 points in each of their last four contests. Quarterback Drew Brees has a sensational 15:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those last four games — and he is completing 75.9% of his passes with 19 touchdown passes and a Passer Rating of 125.9 since Week 11. Furthermore, since Brees’ return in Week Eight after missing five games earlier to injury, New Orleans has ranked 3rd in the NFL in Expected Points Adder per play. The emergence of tight end of Jared Cook as a viable deep threat for this offense has made a big difference. Cook has six catches of at least 20 yards since Week Eleven. New Orleans is scoring 28.4 PPG at home while averaging 420.4 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 38 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when facing the Saints. Look for the Saints to pull away to cover this point spread. 10* NFL Minnesota-New Orleans Fox-TV Special with the New Orleans Saints (146) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (144) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (143). THE SITUATION: New England (12-4) looks to rebound from their 27-24 upset loss to Miami at home last week as a 17.5-point favorite. Tennessee (9-7) clinched the final spot in the AFC playoffs last Sunday with their 35-14 win at Houston as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England blew the opportunity to claim the second seed in the AFC playoffs last week which would not only have given them this week off but would have also ensured they played at home next week. The Patriots have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset loss to an AFC East rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. The Dolphins Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 326 yards to lead his team to the upset victory — but New England has then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards. This remains an outstanding Patriots defense that leads the NFL by allowing only 14.1 PPG and just 275.9 total YPG. Frankly, I think the rumors of the reigning Super Bowl champions have been overly exaggerated. Losing home field advantage certainly does not help their chances. And the Patriots have been challenged on offense without Rob Gronkowski and a viable deep threat (Antonio Brown fit that role perfectly) which was then made worse with injuries to their offensive line and at fullback which hurt their running game. Even with all these issues, New England is scoring 27.3 PPG over their last three games. The Patriots gained 352 yards against the Dolphins defense last week — and they are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. New England was 6-2 at home this season where they outscored their guests by +10.2 PPG while outgaining these opponents by +82.1 net YPG. The Patriots are 42-20-3 ATS in their last 65 games at home — and they are 17-8-3 in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. New England has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in the playoffs — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games in the playoffs. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Titans have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Ryan Tannehill led the Tennessee offense to 467 yards of offense last week — but they are then 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Titans are also 16-37-1 ATS in their last 54 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Tannehill has been a revelation for this Tennessee team — but Bill Belichick and the Patriots coaching staff are very familiar with him after facing him twice a year during his time in Miami. New England won all six of their games against Tannehill as a starter when playing the Dolphins with just five touchdown passes and ten interceptions while posting a low 70 Passer Rating in those six games.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Patriots. And while New England is typically laying more than a touchdown when playing at home, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when laying 3.5 to 7 points. 25* AFC Playoff Wildcard Game of the Year with the New England Patriots (144) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (141) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (142). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-6) enters the playoffs having lost their last two games along with three of the last four games with their 13-6 loss at home to the New York Jets last Sunday as a 1.5-point underdog. Houston (10-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 35-14 loss at home to Tennessee as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss to an AFC South rival. While Houston had nothing to play for in that game, the fact that they surrendered 245 rushing yards to the Titans is a significant cause for concern. The Texans are allowing 121.1 rushing YPG which is 25th in the league — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Houston stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Texans have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games as a favorite. Houston is being outscored and outgained by their visitors when playing at home — and they are also being outscored and outgained overall this season given their suspect defense that is just 28th in the league by allowing 388.3 total YPG. The Texans will be without wide receiver Will Fuller for this contests who has been downgraded to doubtful with his groin injury. Fuller plays a critical role in this offense with his speed giving Houston the ability to stretch the field. In their 325 passing plays with Fuller on the field, the Texans averaged 7.0 yards per passing plays with 31 plays that gained at least 20 yards — but in their 303 passing plays without Fuller, they averaged just 5.8 yards per play with just 17 plays gaining at least 20 yards. Buffalo rested quarterback Josh Allen and some of their key starters in their game with the Jets with them locked-in as the 5th seed in the AFC playoffs. The Bills have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread setback. Buffalo has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Buffalo plays outstanding defense — they rank 2nd in the NFL by allowing only 16.2 PPG and they rank 3rd in the league by giving up just 298.2 total YPG. The weakness of this team is with Allen in the passing game — but he has been more effective on the road this season. He leads an offense that is scoring 21.5 PPG while averaging 340.5 total YPG which are both better than their overall season marks. The Bills were 6-2 on the road this season while outscoring their opponents by +5.9 PPG. Buffalo is 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road — and they are also 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: While Deshaun Watson is the better quarterback in this game, the best unit in this contest belongs to the Bills’ defense. Buffalo is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Buffalo-Houston ABC-TV Special with the Buffalo Bills (141) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (130) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (129). THE SITUATION: Seattle (11-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 27-13 upset loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point favorite lat Sunday. San Francisco (12-3) has won two of their last three games with their 34-31 win over the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point favorite last Saturday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Much is at stake in this game with the winner taking the NFC West crown with the loser taking the 5th seed in the playoffs and a date on the road next week. If the 49ers win this game, they also secure the top seed in the NFC side of the playoff bracket. Seattle is a M*A*S*H unit right now with their stable of running backs decimated by injuries and left tackle Duane Brown out with a bicep injury. The Seahawks had to resort to signing former players Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin off the street to serve as the running backs this week. While this is not ideal, if there is one position (outside of kicker) where a team could sign a player off the street and still see success that week, it is at running back — and both players are familiar with the playbook already. In head coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Russell Wilson, we will trust in this one to develop a game plan that puts his offense in a position to succeed even with this attrition. Seattle is 37-18-14 ATS in their last 69 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss at home. The Seahawks have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. The offense has struggled as of late with the offensive line not giving Wilson enough time in the pocket — he has been sacked 26 times over the last six games. Yet Seattle has scored at least 27 points in three of those contests. The Seahawks are also just 4-3 at home this season — but it would be foolish to diminish the home field edge they will enjoy tonight. Seattle is 33-15-3 in their last 51 games as an underdog — and they have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games at home as the dog. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Niners play on defense has collapsed since the injury of the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Kwon Alexander. After holding their opponents to just 11 PPG in their first seven contests, they have allowed their last eight opponents to average 26.5 PPG. This defense has become even more banged up as the season goes on with this unit now missing defensive lineman Dee Ford and safety Jaquiski Tartt. The Niners have allowed their last three opponents to score 35.3 PPG while averaging 383.3 total YPG which is -105.9 net YPG above their defensive season average. San Francisco has allowed their last three opponents to score at least 29 points — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 62 games after allowing their last two opponents to score at least 25 points. The Niners allowed the Rams to pass for 323 yards last week — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. This team does not embrace the role of the favorite as they are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games when laying the points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road as the favorite. San Francisco is also just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games against teams from the NFC with this including them going 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against fellow NFC West foes.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers will be looking to avenge a 27-24 upset loss at home in overtime to the Seahawks back on November 11th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss at home. San Francisco is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Seattle to play the Seahawks. 25* NFC West Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (130) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (132) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (131). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-9) has won three of their last four games with their 27-17 win over Detroit as a 9.5-point favorite last Sunday. Oakland (7-8) remained alive in the AFC playoff race last week with their 24-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders need to win this game and then see Tennessee and Pittsburgh lose with Indianapolis winning (for strength of victory tie-break implications) and then a little more help to bolster their strength of victory tie-breaker resume (like New England winning) — so the pressure is on head coach Jon Gruden’s group. The Steelers and Titans are both on the road so this playoff scenario is not completely out of the realm. But I do not expect Oakland to play well. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 47 of their last 74 games after an upset victory — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in seven of these last nine situations. Oakland has also failed to cover the point spewed in 23 of their last 32 games after an upset victory over an AFC West rival — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in these last four situations. Additionally, the inconsistent Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after a point spread victory. Oakland enters this game far from at full strength with rookie phenom Josh Jacobs out with his shoulder injury and the offensive line banged up with left tackle Trent Brown out and guard Richie Incognito questionable with an ankle. The Raiders defense is also depleted with injuries to safety Karl Joseph and defensive end Arden Key making the season-ending suspension to linebacker Vontaz Burfict even more devastating. There is a reason why this team had lost four straight games before they upset a reeling Chargers team. Oakland stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing three of their last four games. The Raiders are being outscored by -10.8 PPG away from home while allowing their home hosts to score 29.9 PPG. Oakland is 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, Oakland has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams from the AFC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. Denver is playing for next season as they hope to build momentum under first-year head coach Vic Fangio and quarterback Drew Lock. The rookie has played well since getting a look under center — he completed 25 of 33 passes last week for 192 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions in leading the Broncos to victory. Denver is completing 65.3% of their passes over their last three games while averaging 233 passing YPG on a solid 6.9 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt average with Lock taking the vast majority of those snaps. The Broncos are scoring 22.7 PPG while averaging 330.0 total YPG over those last three games which is a nice improvement over their 17.7 PPG and 302.6 YPG season averages. Any bump in offensive production makes this a much better team given the outstanding defense this team still plays. Denver ranks 10th in the NFL in both allowing only 20.1 PPG and surrendering just 327.7 total YPG. The Broncos are even stingier at home where they hold their visitors to just 18.3 PPG along with only 300.6 total YPG. Denver has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games with the Total set at 38.5 to 42. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Denver will be motivated not only to build momentum for next season but also to play the role of spoiler for the Raiders’ playoff hopes. The Broncos will also be looking to avenge a 24-16 upset loss in Oakland back on September 9th where they were 3-point favorites. Denver has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* AFC West Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (132) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (482) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (481). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-4) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 39-10 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 1-point favorite. Green Bay (11-3) has won three in a row with their 21-13 win over Chicago as a 4-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota will be without their top two running backs tonight with Delvin Cook and Alexander Mattison dealing with injuries. The Vikings still have capable running backs tonight with former Cincinnati Bearcat Mike Boone along with a former first-round draft pick in Ameer Abdullah so I am not very concerned about Minnesota having to dig deeper into their depth chart. Boone was great in the preseason so he should be fine as the lead back tonight. The Vikings are very tough to beat at home where they are 6-0 for the first time since 2009. They are outscoring their guests by +13.5 PPG while outgaining these foes by +53.6 net YPG. The Vikings have a great defense that ranks 6th in the NFL by allowing just 18.5 PPG. The Vikings defense is even better when playing at home where they are holding their opponents to just 14.2 PPG along with only 314.7 total YPG. Minnesota is 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Vikings are also 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games as the favorite. This team has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the NFC — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games in December. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. This Packers team has been grinding out victories in close games this season — they have six net close wins decided by one scoring possession. But Green Bay is being outgained by -35.7 net YPG this season — and they have been outgained by -19.0 YPG over their last three contests. And while the Packers are 4-2 on the road this year, they are being outscored in those games while also being outgained by -107.3 net YPG in those contests. Green Bay is averaging only 271.0 total YPG away from Lambeau Field. First-year head coach Matt LeFleur has this team running the ball more — but he has been very predictable with his game planning. Not including the first quarter (with initial scripted plays), quarterback Aaron Rodgers is completing less than 60% of his passes with only four touchdown passes over his last eighteen (non-first quarter) quarters. Those unimpressive numbers suggest LeFleur is getting out-schemed as the game moves forward. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the road as an underdog. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota will be looking to avenge a 21-16 loss at Green Bay back on September 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to host the Packers. 10* NFL Green Bay-Minnesota ESPN Special with the Minnesota Vikings (482) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (480) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (479). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (10-4) has won four straight games with their 23-3 win over Denver last Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Chicago (7-7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week in their 21-13 loss at Green Bay as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago was eliminated from the playoffs last week with that loss to the Packers along with Minnesota’s victory — so there is a question regarding their motivation tonight. However, the opportunity to play the role of the spoiler on national television with the weight of the pressure of the high expectations they entered the season with will likely be liberating for this group. The Bears outgained Green Bay last week by +123 net yards but a -3 net turnover margin spoiled their effort. Chicago suffered a -2 net turnover in their win against Dallas the previous week — and they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games at home after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover in two straight games. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has played better as of late — he has averaged 299 passing YPG over his last four games while averaging 2.0 touchdown passes per game. Trubisky is also being more aggressive with his legs in critical situations — he rushed for 29 yards last week. Chicago returns home where they are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bears are also 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 36 home games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The Bears still have an elite level defense as they rank 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 18.1 PPG — and they rank 8th in the league by giving up just 324.8 total YPG. Chicago’s defense is even tougher at home where they are allowing just 17.1 PPG along with only 299.7 total YPG. Kansas City may be due for a letdown after covering the point spread in four straight games as well as six of their last eight games. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Kansas City has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning four of their last five games. Despite their four-game winning streak, the Chiefs are averaging only 341.3 total YPG which is over 40 YPG below their 384.4 total YPG season average. Kansas City will also be undermanned in their secondary tonight with cornerback Morris Claiborne out with a shoulder injury.

FINAL TAKE: It will be chilly in Chicago tonight with temperates dropping to the mid-30s — and the Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in December. 10* NFL Kansas City-Chicago NBC-TV Special with the Chicago Bears (480) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (451) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (452). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 44-21 upset loss at Dallas as a 1-point favorite. San Francisco (11-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 29-22 upset loss at home to Atlanta as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles was embarrassed last week on the late window game on national television. They should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Rams have covered the point spread in 11 go their last 17 games after suffering an upset loss by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in all 3 of their games after being upset this season. They need to get the ball to running back Todd Gurley more after he only rushed the ball 11 times last week. While Gurley seems to have lost his lateral speed, the Los Angeles offense has been at its most effective when they remained committed to running the football to better set up their play-action passing for quarterback Jared Goff. After experiencing a midseason slump, Goff has averaged 333.7 passing YPG over his last three games while tossing two touchdown passes in each contest. The Rams’ improvement this week needs to be on the other side of the football after surrendering 475 yards to the Cowboys while falling behind by a 28-7 score at halftime. The Los Angeles defense has not allowed more than 20 points in ten games this season so they should respond with a strong effort. The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Surprisingly, LA has been a better road team this season after having a significantly better at home last year. In their six true home games, the Rams are 3-3 while being outscored by -3.9 PPG and outgained by -13.4 net YPG. In their eight games away from the Los Angeles, the Rams are 5-3 with an average winning margin of +6.2 PPG while winning the yardage battle by +69.1 net YPG. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. San Francisco is also looking to rebound from an upset loss — but injuries on defense have changed the dynamic of this team. Losing linebacker Kwon Alexander took away the heart and soul of that unit — and that group has suffered a string of injuries ever since that late-October season-ending injury. The 49ers have allowed 25.9 PPG over their last seven games after limiting their first seven opponents to a mere 11 PPG. They have picked off only one pass over those last seven games and they have managed only three sacks over their last three games. San Fran has allowed 75 combined points over their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 61 games after allowing at least 25 points in two straight contests. The Niners have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. San Francisco stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. Additionally, the 49ers are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games this season when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games against fellow NFC West foes — and they have a more important game on deck with Seattle next week that will likely determine the NFC West champion so they may be caught looking ahead. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against divisional opponents — and they will be motivated to avenge a 20-7 upset loss at home to the Niners back on October 13th as a 3-point favorite. The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Rams (451) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (456) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (455). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (7-7) has won four straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 38-17 win at Detroit last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Houston (9-5) has won three of their last four games with their 24-21 upset win at Tennessee last week as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Texans may be due for an emotional letdown on this short week after pulling off that big upset victory that was critical for their AFC South title aspirations. But Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after pulling off an upset victory over an AFC South foe. Furthermore, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less against a divisional rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. Houston was outgained by the Titans by -58 net yards after surrendering 432 total yards. Defense has been an issue for this team as they have allowed 27.0 PPG over their last three contests along with 423.7 total YPG which is -44.6 YPG worse than their season average that already ranked 28th in the league. This is not a good sign for this team as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. And while Houston has allowed their last two opponents to average 7.24 and 6.65 Yards-Per-Play, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 6 YPP. The Texans are unreliable as a favorite considering that they are being outgained in yardage overall this season. They are also being outscored and outgained on the road while being outscored and outgained in their last three contests despite winning two of those games. Seven of Houston’s victories this season have been decided by one scoring possession — and they have four net close wins decided by one possession. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when favored. They are also just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games in December. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after scoring at least 35 points in their last game. The Buccaneers are significantly undermanned at wide receiver for this game with both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out for this game. But in head coach Bruce Arians I trust when it comes to devising an offensive game plan with a week to prepare. Expect a creative use of tight ends and running backs in the passing game. The under-appreciated aspect of this Bucs team is the continuing improved play of their defense that ranks tops in the NFL by allowing only 73.3 rushing YPG under defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Over their last three games, Tampa Bay is allowing only 21.0 PPG along with just 282.0 total YPG. This solid play on defense helps explain why the Bucs are outgaining their opponents by +50.0 net YPG this season. Of course, Winston’s turnovers tend to ruin the good work this team does in the yardage battle — but the Texans have only had three takeaways over their last five games. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when getting no more than 7 points as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games in December. While quarterback Jameis Winston has not been in many games that had playoff implications, he does seem to relish the role of playing the spoiler. Expect a close game where Tampa Bay has a late chance to pull the upset. 10* NFL Houston-Tampa Bay NFL Network Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (456) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (333) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (334). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-7) has lost three straight games with their 38-35 loss at Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. New Orleans (10-3) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 48-46 upset loss at home to San Francisco as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Saints may have a hard time recovering from the physical and emotionally draining experience of that showdown with the 49ers last week — and facing another physical team with this Indianapolis team will be a tough test. As it is, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games coming off a loss at home in their last game. And while the Saints have won nine of their last eleven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight home games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. Injuries are beginning to play a bigger role with this team. Not only is the offensive line banged up, but now they have lost defensive linemen Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins may be out for the rest of the season. The Saints stay at home where they are 5-2 in the Superdome but they are only outscoring their visitors by +2.5 net PPG. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. The Saints have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in December. Indianapolis will be playing with desperation tonight to keep their playoff hopes alive — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. The Colts have allowed 69 combined points over their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 25 points in two straight games. Indianapolis is also 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The encouraging aspect of this team is they are finding success on offense despite being without wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (who is not likely to play tonight). Getting Marlon Mack at running back last week helped — and the Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Indianapolis stays on the road where they are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 appearances on Monday Night Football. Look for Indianapolis to keep this game closer than expected. 10* NFL Indianapolis-New Orleans ESPN Special with the Indianapolis Colts (333) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (321) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (322). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 24-17 loss at home to Baltimore as a 6.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (8-5) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 23-17 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Buffalo should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss. And while the Bills could only manage 209 yards of offense against the tough Ravens’ defense, they are then 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Buffalo has a team that is built to play well on the road with their strong defense and good running game. The Bills are 2nd in the NFL by allowing just 16.3 PPG — and they rank 3rd in the league by holding their opponents to just 296.3 total YPG. Buffalo is also 5th in the NFL by averaging 135.3 rushing YPG. Buffalo is 5-1 on the road this season while outscoring their home hosts by +7.8 PPG. The Bills are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Buffalo has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Buffalo has has six games decided by one scoring possession this season — they are 3-3 in those games. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has had nine games decided by one scoring possession where they have won six of those contests — so a double bad breaks going the other way and this could be a 6-7 football team. The Steelers are being outgained by -20.8 net YPG. Pittsburgh is getting it done despite having an anemic offense. Since Week 10, the Steelers are scoring only 16.6 PPG which is tied for 28th in the league during that span while averaging a mere 289.0 total YPG which is also 28th in the NFL. Even worse, Pittsburgh has turned the ball over 10 times since Week 10 which is tied for fourth worst during that span and their quarterbacks have a Passer Rating of just 74.5 in those games which is 29th. Rookie QB Devlin Hodges has been a gamer for this team — he completed 16 of 19 passes last week for 152 yards. But as the game tape grows on him, good defenses will begin to devise more specific game plans. Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott is one of the brightest defensive minds in the business — they held the juggernaut Baltimore offense led by likely league MVP Lamar Jackson to just 257 total yards last week. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a win by 6 points or less. And while Pittsburgh has responded from an 0-3 start with eight wins in their last ten games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning eight of their last ten contests. Furthermore, they managed only 135 net passing yards last week — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to pass for at least 150 net yards. The Steelers do expect to get running back James Conner back for this game but wide receiver Juju Smith-Schuster has been downgraded to doubtful as he continues in the concussion protocol.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played five straight Unders with them winning five of their last six games decided by one scoring possession. Look for the Steelers good fortunes to run out tonight. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (321) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (330) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (329). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-7) has lost three straight games after their 31-24 upset loss at Chicago back on December 5th where they were 3-point favorites. Los Angeles (8-5) has won two straight games as well as five of their last seven with their 28-12 win over Seattle as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas is being given zero respect by many bettors right now with the oddsmakers installing them as a 3-point favorite before bet down to a home underdog against this hot Rams team. Look for the Cowboys to respond with an inspired effort. Dallas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after dropping three of their last four contests. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. And Dallas should benefit from the extra days off since playing that Thursday night game as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing on a Thursday night. The Cowboys did out gain the Bears by +26 net yards in that loss. In fact, Dallas has outgained each of their last nine opponents — and only New Orleans has won the yardage battle against them all season (by just 9 yards)! Perhaps the talent on this roster has been overrated — but the coaching and special teams on both sides of the ball in key circumstances have also let this team down. Despite losing their last three games, the Cowboys have outgained those opponents by +45.0 net YPG. This character certainly makes Dallas unreliable when laying points — but the flip side is that they do offer value as an underdog (especially if they will come close to winning the yardage battle). Not surprisingly then, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 38 home games as a dog getting up to 7 points. Look for Dallas to get their rushing attack going after they managed only 82 rushing yards on just 22 carries against the Bears. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards. While the Rams’ defense has been outstanding this season, they are only middling against the run by allowing 104.3 rushing YPG which is 12th in the league. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 contests after covering the point spread in three of their last four. Quarterback Jared Goff has played better as of late by leading his offense to average 303 passing YPG over their last three games — but the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after averaging at least 275 passing YPG over their last three contests. And while Los Angeles has averaged 502 total YPG in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after averaging at least 500 YPG in their last two contests. Furthermore, the Rams have only allowed 19 combined points over their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas will have the extra motivation to avenge last year’s loss in the playoffs in Los Angeles by a 30-22 score. The Cowboys host this rematch where despite being just 3-3 this season they are outscoring their guests by +7.5 PPG and outgaining them by +118.5 YPG. 10* NFL LA Rams-Dallas Fox-TV Special with the Dallas Cowboys (330) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (329). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (313) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (314). THE SITUATION: Houston (8-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week at home against Denver in an embarrassing 38-24 loss despite being an 8-point underdog. Tennessee (8-5) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 42-21 win at Oakland as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston should respond with a strong effort this afternoon — they have not lost two straight games in their last twenty-seven contests. The Texans have been consistently reliable this season coming off a loss this season. They have won all four of their games after a defeat so far this season while averaging 28.3 PPG along with 409.8 total YPG fueled by a ground game that has averaged 130.3 rushing YPG in those contests. Houston has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 ames after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss as a favorite laying at least 6 points. Additionally, the Texans are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread loss. And Houston has covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after playing a game on their home field. The Texans did end up outgaining the Broncos by 23 net yards but could not dig themselves out of the hole from their 31-3 halftime deficit. Houston has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Tennessee has been one of the hottest teams in the league since Ryan Tannehill has taken over as the starting quarterback — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least three games in a row. The Titans have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Furthermore, Tennessee is just 16-36-1 ATS in their last 51 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Tannehill was spectacular against the porous Raiders’ defense as he completed 21 of 27 passes for 391 yards while leading an offense that generated 552 total yards. But the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 350 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game. But a concern for this team is their defense after they allowed Oakland to gain 355 yards. Tennessee is just 19th in the NFL this season by allowing 361.5 total YPG — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Opponents have found success in the passing game against this Titans defense that allows 259.9 passing YPG which is 25th in the NFL — and their secondary is banged up entering this game. Tennessee is also being outgained at home by -44.9 net YPG when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans are just 16-33-1 ATS in their last 50 games against fellow AFC South opponents — and they are just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games against the Texans. And wide receiver Will Fuller is expected to play again for the Texans — and they have won eleven of their last fourteen games with a healthy fuller complement wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Expect a close game where Houston will be in a position to pull the upset. 25* AFC South Underdog of the Year with the Houston Texans (313) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (502) minus the points versus the New York Jets (501). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (11-2) has won nine straight games after their 24-17 win at Buffalo last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite. New York (5-8) has won four of their last five games with their 22-21 win at home against Miami last week as a 5-point favorite.

THE SITUATION: In theory, I don’t love laying all these points in an NFL game. However, in practice, NFL teams laying at least 14 points are 20-13 ATS in these last 33 situations since the start of the 2017-18 season with favorites laying at least two touchdowns this season being 6-3 ATS. This is the first favorite laying at least 14 points since Week 8 when Minnesota was laying around -16.5 points for a Thursday night game against Washington. We took the underdog Skins that night in the Vikings’ 19-9 victory — but I am taking the chalk in this game under these different circumstances. The Jets are a M*A*S*H unit with a whopping fifteen players on Injured Reserve or otherwise out for the rest of the season. Those missing players do not include safety Jamal Adams cornerback Brian Poole, defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, and tack Chuma Edoga who are four more starters declared out or doubtful for this game. This is bad news for a team that is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. The Jets now go back on the road where they are just 1-5 while scoring just 15.5 PPG and averaging a mere 239.7 total YPG. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Jets are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 road games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a double-digit underdog. And New York is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December. The Baltimore defense ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 18.2 PPG and 6th in the league by limiting their opponents to only 314.6 total YPG. The Ravens have also held their last three opponents to just 13.3 PPG along with only 253.7 total YPG. Baltimore’s defense starts with their outstanding secondary that might have become the best unit in the league with the midseason trade of cornerback Marcus Peters. Not only do strong cover skills help the pass rush, but it also gives defensive coordinator Wink Martindale the freedom to take more chances with the blitz. The Ravens lead the NFL by blitzing on 54.5% of the time — and now they face Sam “I see ghosts” Darnold tonight. In that Monday night game against the Patriots on October 21st when Darnold was caught on mic admitting he was seeing “ghosts” in the backfield against the Patriots blitz, he completed just 8 of 16 passes for only 66 yards with no touchdown passes and three interceptions when facing a blitz. For the season, Darnold ranks 30th of 32 quarterbacks with a 48.2 Passer Rating when facing the blitz. Defense is consistent on a week-to-week basis — and so are strong rushing attacks which is what this Baltimore team possesses behind Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram as they lead the NFL by averaging 200.8 rushing YPG. Perhaps this is why the Ravens have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Baltimore returns home where they are 5-1 this season with an average winning margin of +8.5 PPG. This team is also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games under head coach John Harbaugh when playing on a Thursday night.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least seven games in a row. And while Baltimore has covered the point spread in six of their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. 10* NFL NY Jets-Baltimore Fox-TV Special with the Baltimore Ravens (502) minus the points versus the New York Jets (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (159) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (160). THE SITUATION: New York (2-10) has lost eight games in a row with their 31-13 loss at home to Green Bay last week as a 6.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (5-7) has lost three games in a row after their embarrassing 37-31 upset loss at Miami last week as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Giants have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Eli Manning will be back under center for this game with rookie Daniel Jones out with an ankle injury. I expect Manning to be solid tonight and careful with the football after not playing for most of the year. The Giants have been a reliable road team relative to point spread expectations. New York has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games as an underdog. The Giants’ defense has also played better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 317.0 total YPG. The Giants are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. The Eagles surrendered 409 yards of offense to the Dolphins last week but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Philadelphia did gain 386 yards in the loss — but they have then failed to cover the point spread 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Eagles are limited in what they can accomplish on offense with DeSean Jackson on Injured Reserve with his abdominal injury. They lack a credible vertical threat without Jackson which allows opposing defenses to cheat their strong safety into the box. Philadelphia is scoring just 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 328.3 total YPG. The Eagles return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles will probably win this game — but the Giants should revel in the opportunity to play the role of spoiler. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL NY Giants-Philadelphia ESPN Special with the New York Giants (159) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (157) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (158). THE SITUATION: Seattle (10-2) has won five games in a row with their 37-30 win over Minnesota as a 3-point favorite for Monday Night Football. Los Angeles (7-5) has won two of their last three games after their 34-7 win at Arizona last Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The Rams bounced-back from their embarrassing 45-6 loss at home to Baltimore by crushing the Cardinals — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in their last game. Arizona has the worst defense in the NFL by allowing 426.3 total YPG — and they have surrendered 482.7 total YPG over their last three games in what are Texas Tech-like numbers for rookie head coach Kliff Kingbury so I am not ready to read too much into the Rams’ offense after that effort. Remember, the Rams had averaged 10.7 PPG in their previous three games before that date while averaging a mere 270 YPG in those contests. So while QB Jared Goff completed 32 of 43 passes for 424 yards, it is telling that LA is then 13-27-2 ATS in their last 42 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Rams return home where they are scoring just 19.4 PPG while averaging just 313.4 total YPG. Los Angeles is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after a home game where both teams scored at least 24 points including seven of these last nine situations. The Seahawks got it going with their ground game as they outrushed the Vikings by +140 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least 75 yards. Seattle is a perfect 6-0 on the road where they are outscoring their home hosts by +6.8 net PPG. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they are 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 8 straight road games with the Total set in the 45 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams will be looking to avenge a 30-29 loss in Seattle back on October 3rd — but they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 40 of their last 58 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 10* NFL Seattle-LA Rams NBC-TV Special with the Seattle Seahawks (157) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (158). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (156) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (155). THE SITUATION: Oakland (6-6) has lost two straight games after their 40-9 loss at Kansas City last week as an 11-point underdog. Tennessee (7-5) has won three games in a row with their 31-17 win at Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Oakland has been outscored by a humiliating 74 to 12 margin over their last two games with trips to coach weather New York against the Jets before their trip to a chilly Kansas City last week. Perhaps the playoff talk for this team was premature — but this is still a hardworking and well-coached team. They should rebound with a stronger effort today as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. They did outgain the Chiefs last week by +73 net yards so that final score was much worse than the reality on the ground where a Kansas City interception return for a touchdown along with some big plays on offense made the difference. Now Oakland returns home to the Coliseum where they are 4-1 this season to begin a final two-game homestand before moving to Las Vegas next season. The Raiders have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home. Oakland has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games as the underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games when getting 3 points or less. Tennessee has won five of their last six games behind quarterback Ryan Tannehill who has jumpstarted the offense — but this team looks primed for an emotional letdown after defeating an AFC South rival on the road. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They only gained 292 yards of offense last week against the Colts in a game where they were outgained by -99 net yards — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. They are also 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Now this team goes back on the road for just the third time in their last seven contests after playing four of their last six games in Nashville. UPDATE: Runnin back Josh Jacobs has been declared inactive for this game with his shoulder that now looks like he re-injured last week. He has been dealing with a shoulder injury for weeks that has not stopped him from playing. While disappointing, the Raiders remain a 25* play — Oakland has serviceable replacement level players at running back while this is a bounce-back situation for QB Derek Carr (and the Raiders defense) playing back at home after two bad games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee is being outgained on the road by -20.0 YPG — and they are just 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 road games as the favorite. 25* AFC Underdog of the Year on the Oakland Raiders (156) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (147) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (148). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-6) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests after their 31-17 loss to Tennessee last week as a 1-point underdog. Tampa Bay (5-7) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 28-11 win in Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis is just ravaged with injuries on offense with wide receiver T.Y. Hilton along with tight end Eric Ebron and running back Marlon Mack all on the shelf with injuries. There is no question that the Colts are limited with their skill position players to help out quarterback Jacoby Brissett. But even with those limitations last week, Brissett still completed 25 of 40 passes for 319 yards while leading an offense that generated 391 yards against the Titans defense. Indianapolis outgained Tennessee by +99 net yards. Look for head coach Frank Reich to inspire a big effort from his team to stop this losing streak in this winnable game. The Titans have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games. The Colts are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 4 road games as an underdog. Tampa Bay has been consistently inconsistent this season as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 18 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Now this team returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games. The Buccaneers are very unreliable when laying the points as well. Not only has Tampa Bay failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as the favorite but they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games when laying the points.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers won the turnover battle against the Jaguars last week with a +3 net turnover margin — but that was the first time they had more takeaways than giveaways in seven games. Tampa Bay has turned the ball over 28 times this season for an ugly 2.3 turnovers per game margin with Jameis Winston throwing 20 interceptions this season. That Indy loss last week was their first loss this season decided more than 6 points. 20* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Indianapolis Colts (147) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (141) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (142). THE SITUATION: Carolina (5-7) has lost four games in a row with their 29-21 upset loss to Washington as a 10.5-point favorite last week. Atlanta (3-9) has lost two in a row with their 26-18 loss at home to New Orleans on Thanksgiving as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Carolina fired their long-time head coach, Ron Rivera, this week in this lost season. Perry Fewell takes over as the interim head coach in a role he also served on an interim basis in Buffalo back in 2009. Scott Turner has also been elevated to the interim offensive coordinator with his father, Norv, installed as an assistant to the head coach. Now the everyone’s job on the line, look for an inspired effort from this Panthers’ team today — and they also will have an element of surprise with the changes that will come from the assistant coaching staff changes. Carolina has bounced back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while the Panthers surrendered 362 yards to the Skins last week, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Carolina has been a solid road team this season — they are 3-3 on the road while averaging a healthy 25.2 PPG. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, while Carolina has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. The Falcons are playing for next year with an offensive line that was not fixed in the offseason (albeit, injuries did not help). Atlanta has allowed 40 sacks this season after the Saints dropped Matt Ryan nine times last week. The Falcons are just 1-5 at home this season where they are scoring only 17.3 PPG while being outgained by -10.9 PPG. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as the favorite. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina will also be motivated to avenge an ugly 29-3 upset loss at home to the Falcons as a 4.5-point favorite. The Panthers have covered the point spread in a decisive 39 of their last 54 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 25* NFC South Underdog of the Year with the Carolina Panthers (141) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). THE SITUATION: Chicago (6-6) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 24-20 win at Detroit last Thursday on Thanksgiving Day as a 5.5-point favorite. Dallas (6-6) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 26-15 upset loss to Buffalo as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: After starting the season with three straight wins by double-digits, the Cowboys have lost six of their last nine games. Frankly, if Dallas was going to step-up, the moment was last week at home against a solid Bills team. And they outplayed the Bills by winning the first-down battle by a 32 to 22 margin while outgaining them by +70 yards. Yet this team is finding ways to lose. Dallas has not forced a turnover in four straight games. And while they have gained a healthy 418.7 total YPG over their last three contests, that has translated into just 19.7 PPG. Rookie offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is getting outfoxed by veteran defensive coordinators on big downs. The Red Zone success rate for scoring touchdowns in these last three games is just at 45.5% which represents a decline from their 54.8% touchdown success rate in the end zone for the season. Kicking woes are certainly playing a part in the malaise with this team after placekicker Brett Maher missed two gimme-field goals last week. Maher has missed five of his eleven field goal attempts from 30 to 49 yards which is the second-worst in the league. Head coach Jason Garrett is clearly on the hot seat but perhaps the players are ready for a change. Now this team goes back on the road where they are scoring 24.0 PPG while averaging 398.0 total YPG which is not nearly as impressive as their 27.7 PPG scoring mark at home where they also generate 468.1 total YPG. The Bears average only 281.8 total YPG — but Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 road games against teams who do not average more than 285 total YPG. And while the Cowboys surrendered 356 yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The team got more bad news this week with their star linebacker, Leighton Vander Esch, declared out for tonight’s game with a neck injury. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on Thursday Night Football. This has also been an unreliable team in expected close games as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by up to 3 points. Chicago has gotten back to winning helped by facing a weak schedule — but that has given this team confidence. The Bears have then covered the point spread in 6 of the last 9 games after a win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 6 points or less. Mitchell Trubisky has been playing with more confidence and verve as well as of late. Over his last four games, he has completed 94 of his 145 passes (65%) for 979 yards with eight TD passes and just four interceptions for a solid 91.1 Quarterback Rating. Over their last three games, the Bears are averaging 340.3 total YPG which is almost 60 YPG above their 281.8 total YPG season average. Just average production on offense will make a big difference for this team that is still playing outstanding defense. Chicago ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 17.3 PPG while also ranking 7th in the league by giving up just 319.7 total YPG — and this team holds their visitors to just 16.0 PPG along with only 281.7 total YPG when playing at home. This elite defense makes this team a very dangerous home dog — they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games at home while going 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games as the underdog. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set at 42.5 to 49. And while the Cowboys average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry, Chicago has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 home games against teams who average at least 4.5 YPC.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog getting up to a field goal. These are two playoff teams from last season who had deeper metrics that predicted the downturn we are now witnessing. However, Chicago is feeling a little better about themselves right now — and Dallas is a dome team favored on the road in cold weather with temperatures expected in the low-40s. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Chicago Bears (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (476) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (475). THE SITUATION: Seattle (9-2) has won four straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 17-9 win at Philadelphia as a 1-point favorite last week. Minnesota (8-3) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 27-23 win over Denver at home as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: With Seattle being around a field goal favorite at home in this NFC showdown, I expect Russell Wilson to outduel Kirk Cousins. The Seahawks have won twenty of their last twenty-two games in Prime-Time. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Seattle returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Wilson is leading an offense that is 3rd in the league by averaging 385.4 total YPG. The Seahawks defense has been playing better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to 22.3 PPG along with 354.7 total YPG which is -1.6 PPG and -15.6 YPG below their season averages. This Seattle defense has also been more opportunistic as of late as well as they have forced sixteen turnovers over their last six games as well triggering eight takeaways in their last two games. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in four of their last six games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Additionally, Seattle has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in Weeks 10 through 13 of the regular season under head coach Pete Carroll — and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 appearances on Monday Night Football. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win. The Vikings have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 road games after a straight-up win at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Minnesota does have an elite roster — but they have still failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Cousins has lost eight of his last twelve starts over the last two seasons against teams with a winning record as well. And despite their string of victories, there are some warning signs for this team. The offense is averaging just 331.0 total YPG over their last three games which is -47.6 net YPG below their season mark. The Vikings are also allowing 24.3 PPG along with 404.7 total YPG over those last three contests which are +5.7 PPG and +66.1 YPG above their season average.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 appearances on Monday Night Football — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Seattle to play the Seahawks. I am not standing in the way of that evidence. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year is on the Seattle Seahawks (476) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (473) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (474). THE SITUATION: New England (10-1) has won their last two games after their 13-9 win over Dallas last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Houston (7-4) has won three of their last four games after their 20-17 win over Indianapolis two Thursdays ago as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The weather played a role for the Patriots gaining only 282 yards last week against the Cowboys. But the ability of Tom Brady to move the ball down the field should improve with Isaiah Wynn healthy again at left tackle. Wide receivers Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett will be both be active for this game as well — and rookie first-round draft pick N’Keal Harry continues to get more involved with this offense after being injured for the first part of the season. New England has also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after covering the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. The Patriots’ defense is leading the way for this team — that unit ranks number one in the NFL by allowing only 10.6 PPG and they are second in the league by giving up just 256.4 total YPG. New England goes back on the road where they are outscoring their home hosts by +16.3 PPG. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a close win at home by 3 points or less. The Texans outgained the Colts by +100 yards in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 100 yards. Houston stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Despite winning two of their last three games, the Texans have been outgained by -35.0 net YPG over that stretch. New England’s shutdown cornerback, Stephon Gilmore will likely neutralize Texans’ wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins — and while Will Fuller has played better as of late, the Patriots’ discipline on defense should contain him. This Houston team has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans are just 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games in December — and the Patriots have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in December. Look for Brady to do what it takes to outduel Deshaun Watson. 10* NFL New England-Houston NBC-TV Special with the New England Patriots (473) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (461) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (462). THE SITUATION: Oakland (6-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 34-3 upset loss in New York against the Jets as a 3.5-point favorite. Kansas City (7-4) has won two of their last three games with their 24-17 win over the Chargers in Mexico City back on November 18th as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Andy Reid is renowned for his amazing 22-4 straight-up record after a bye week but he has led the Chiefs to a milder 5-3 record in his eight games coached after a bye week in Kansas City. More importantly for our purposes, the Chiefs are just 4-4 ATS in those 8 games after a bye week under Reid’s leadership — so we should not be scared off betting against this team simply because Reid has had more time to prepare. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when playing after a game on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs were outgained by -128 net yards to the Chargers due to their leaky defense allowing 438 yards in that game. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. Oakland should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Raiders have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Oakland should have success running the football behind rookie phenom Josh Jacobs against this Chiefs’ defense that ranks 30th in the NFL by allowing 143.1 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders will also be looking to avenge a 28-10 loss to Kansas City back on September 15th. The Chiefs are just 2-2 at home this season where they are actually being outgained by -17.4 net YPG. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Oakland Raiders (461) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (472) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (471). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (6-5) has won five of their last six games with their 16-10 win in Cincinnati last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Cleveland (5-6) has won three straight games with their 41-24 win over Miami last week as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: There is the old saying: “Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.” A pissed off Mike Tomlin might come in a close second. The Pittsburgh head coach was seething after the Thursday night game back on November 14th between these two teams that ended with the ugly fight on the field that resulted in the Browns’ star defensive end Myles Garrett being suspended indefinitely for using his helmet as a weapon. The rough-house did not start then — Cleveland had already knocked out the Steelers’ top two wide receivers in that game with cheat shots to the helmet. The Browns beat-up Tomlin’s team before the final events of that game. And Tomlin will have his team ready to respond. I don’t quote players or coaches often in my Reports but here is Tomlin this week: “We love being in hot-button games. We love being in hotly contested AFC North games … To be quite honest with you, we're not a group that runs from these types of games. We're the type of group that runs to these types of games. We view it as an honor to be the consistent team in these battles.” Add into this volatile mix that the Steelers are a home underdog to the Browns for the first time since 1989 and Tomlin has a treasure trove of items to motivate his team. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog. They also are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up win. Now they return home after playing their last two games on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Tomlin has also benched the ineffective Mason Rudolph at quarterback by tapping Devlin Hodges as the starter. Hodges is a gunslinger who broke FCS passing records at Samford before wowing coaches who have loved his moxie. It is hard to bench a high draft choice for an FCS guy — but Tomlin’s move in this situation speaks to his coaching staff’s confidence in his skills. In a previous start this season in a victory against the Chargers, the Pittsburgh offensive playbook seemed closer to the one Ben Roethlisberger uses as compared to the lack of a vertical passing game that has been a problem with Rudolph. Hodges completed 15 of 20 passes in the win over the Chargers — and he has completed 27 of his 40 passes this season for a 67.5% completion percentage while averaging a healthy 8.0 Yards-Per-Attempt for 318 passing yards. He has thrown only one interception this season. Injuries have hurt this team on the offensive side of the ball with wide receiver Juju Shuster now declared out for this game as he recovers from his concussion and running back James Conner not doubtful with his shoulder. But the Steelers did rush for 159 yards last week — and they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh is scoring 24.3 PPG in their six home games — and they are holding their visitors to just 17.8 PPG along with only 290.2 total YPG. This Steelers’ defense has developed into a top unit with the continued development of rookie linebacker Devin Bush and the midseason acquisition of cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick — they rank 6th in the league by allowing just 320.6 total YPG. Pittsburgh has held its last three opponents to only 14.3 PPG along with just 281.6 total YPG. Cleveland has been inconsistent this season with their talent on paper not matching their mental discipline nor leadership from their rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while Cleveland’s win over the Dolphins came on the heels of their victory over the Steelers, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two straight games by double-digits. The Browns gained 467 yards against Miami — but they are 13-30-1 ATS in their last 44 games after gaining at least 350 yards and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Browns go back on the road where they are just 2-3 while scoring only 19.6 PPG. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. This also remains a team that is just 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings of these divisional rivals. Tomlin’s teams have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC North foes. And in the Steelers’ last 43 opportunities to avenge a loss where they scored no more than 14 points, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 29 of these games. 25* AFC North Underdog of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (472) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (310) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (309). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (9-2) has won their last two games after their 34-31 win over Carolina last Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Atlanta (3-8) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 35-22 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after suffering an upset loss as a home favorite. And while the Falcons surrendered 446 yards to the Buccaneers last week, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Falcons had found success after their bye week to begin the month by running back to running the football. In their upset wins over New Orleans and Carolina, Atlanta ran the ball 34 and 26 times. The Atlanta defense also started playing better when head coach Dan Quinn relinquished the defensive play-calling to his assistants while moving Rakeem Morris from offense back to defense (where he built his reputation that eventually got the head coaching gig in Tampa Bay) to coach the defensive backs while calling plays on 3rd down. The Falcons have held their last three opponents to just 15.7 PPG. The Falcons stay at home where they are scoring only 17.2 PPG. They will have Devonta Freeman available to run the football but Jones is a game-time decision at wide receiver. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on Thursday Night Football. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread. The Saints have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games. The Saints remain banged up with their offensive line with left tackle Terron Armstead and left guard Andrus Peat both out for this game. Remember that this New Orleans offense slowed down significantly last season when Armstead went down with an injury. New Orleans is averaging just 317.4 total YPG in their five games on the road which is -51.5 net YPG below their season average.

FINAL TAKE: This is the Saints’ fourth straight game against an NFC South opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing at least their last two games against a divisional rival. New Orleans will want to avenge their 26-9 loss at home to the Falcons back on November 10th — but Atlanta can play loose with the opportunity to play the role of spoiler once again to their arch rival. Expect a close game. 10* NFL New Orleans-Atlanta NBC-TV Special with Atlanta Falcons (310) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (308) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (307). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 13-9 loss in New England on Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. Buffalo (8-3) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 20-3 win over Denver last week as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas is feeling the heat this week with owner (and general manager!) Jerry Jones making his frustration with the coaching of Jason Garrett after the loss to the Patriots last week. Expect this team to play with a sense of urgency in this game. Many pundits have noted that the Cowboys are 0-4 this season in their four games against teams with a winning record. However, these “experts” are not observing that Dallas has actually outgained these four winning teams by +84.2 net YPG. The Cowboys outgained the Patriots last week by +39 net yards. Dallas also outgained Minnesota by +228 net yards while winning the yardage battle with Green Bay by +230 net yards. New Orleans is the only one of the four winning teams that the Cowboys have faced that outgained them in yardage — and they only managed to so so by 9 yards. Put another way, if a pundit’s hot take this week had been that Dallas is averaging 396 total YPG against teams with a winning record while holding these winning teams to just 311.8 total YPG, then taking the Cowboys would start to look pretty, pretty, pretty good (to quote Larry David). Garrett’s in-play decision-making is probably not helping matters. Dallas also has the worst Special Teams unit as measured by Football Outsiders (for what that is worth). But they are hosting a Bills team that FO ranks only at 26th in Special Teams this season. Frankly, I suspect Dallas’ 0-4 record versus teams with a winning record speaks largely to some bad luck that is due for regression. The Cowboys have played their last two games on the road — and now they return home where they are outscoring their opponents by +11.2 net YPG while outgaining these opponents by +128.6 net YPG. Dallas’ offense has been tough to stop at home where they are scoring 30.2 PPG while averaging 475.6 total YPG. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in November. And it is not as if these Bills are battle-tested. Buffalo has only faced one team with a winning record — and they lost to the Patriots at home by a 16-10 score. So the Bills are scoring only 21.0 PPG while averaging 352.7 total YPG — ranking 21st and 18th in the NFL — despite playing ten of eleven teams that do not have winning records. This lack of quality of competition puts the development of quarterback Josh Allen in his second season into a bleaker perspective. Buffalo did outgain the Broncos on the ground last week by 145 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +150 yards. The Bills win last week came on the heels of their 37-20 win in Miami the previous week as a touchdown favorite — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two games in a row. Buffalo has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after winning two straight games where they also covered the point spread as the favorite. This is a challenging situation for this team to be plashing their third game in eighteen days on the road on a short week of rest and preparation. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a Thursday. And in their last 13 games played with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 8 times.

FINAL TAKE: Having watched Dak Prescott a bunch this season, I have been impressed — he passes my “eyeball test” when it comes to whether Dallas should sign him to a long-term deal. The Cowboys are more desperate and have the better quarterback — look for them to secure a decisive win at home. 25* NFL Thursday Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (308) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (276) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (275). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-4) has won three of their last four games with their 17-7 win over Chicago last Sunday as a 5-point favorite. Baltimore (8-2) has won six straight games with their 41-7 win over Houston at home last week as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a handicapper play tonight — with the public and the so-called “sharps” on the side of the Ravens, this appears to be a situation where taking the contrarian route will prove to be fruitful. Los Angeles has been playing better football as of late. They have outscored their last three opponents by +6.0 PPG while outgaining these foes by +39.3 net YPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. And while Los Angeles has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The conventional wisdom on the Rams has been their play-action offense has been slowed down since the tail end of last season when defenses started playing 6-1 fronts. But head coach Sean McVay has begun to change the identity of his offense to rely more heavily on his rushing attack. Los Angeles has averaged 30 rushing attempts over their last four games. A commitment to running the football has many non-tangible advantages (that continue to elude the football analytics community). Run-blocking is an easier skill to accomplish — so more running helps to put a struggling offensive line in a better position to succeed. With two second-year players entering the starting lineup this season, the play of the offensive line has been an issue. More running of the football also decreased the pressure and expectations on quarterback Jared Goff. During their three-game losing streak earlier in the season, Goff attempted a combined 117 passes in losses to Tampa Bay and Seattle — and that was simply asking too much of this quarterback. Running the football also burns time off the clock which keeps the team’s defense rested. The Rams have held their last three opponents to just 11.3 PPG along with only 313.7 total YPG. The acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey has certainly helped this talented unit play even better. Ramsey will have the assignment of blanketing the Ravens’ Marquise Brown which will likely eliminate the Baltimore deep passing attack. Led by Aaron Donald, Los Angeles has an outstanding run defense that ranks 4th in the league by allowing only 89.1 rushing YPG. The Bears only ran for 74 yards last week — and the Rams have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Goff will benefit from the return of wide receiver Robert Woods who missed the last few games due to personal issues. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks has also been upgraded to probable after getting cleared from the concussion protocol. Moving forward, the Rams have lost the turnover battle in two straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after having -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams from the AFC. Baltimore has looked invincible as of late with wins over Seattle and New England followed up by 36 and 34 point blowout victories over their last two games. The Ravens have covered the point spread in their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games while also failing to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. Baltimore had a 28-10 halftime lead over Cincinnati two weeks ago before taking a 14-0 halftime lead over the Texans last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after having double-digit halftime leads in two straight games. The Ravens dominated Houston last week by generating 25 first downs while holding the ball for 36:19 minutes and totaling 491 yards of offense. But Baltimore has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes while gaining at least 24 first downs. The Ravens also held the Texans to just 110 passing yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Baltimore has been vulnerable against opposing passing attacks as they are allowing 238.8 passing YPG which is 17th in the NFL. And while Baltimore has only allowed 20 combined points in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after holding their last two opponents to 14 or fewer points.

FINAL TAKE: While the Rams have not looked as formidable this season as they did last year in making their Super Bowl run, they still are loaded with talent on both sides of the football. And they have plenty of big-game experience. Look for defensive coordinator Wade Phillips to dial-up a scheme that slows down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ vaunted rushing attack. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (276) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (9-1) looks to build on their 36-26 win at home over Arizona last Sunday where they were 10-point favorites. Green Bay (8-2) has won five of their last six games with their 24-16 win over Carolina two Sundays ago where they were 5-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: It is foolish to finish handicapping many of these NFL games without first getting the final M*A*S*H* unit reports for both teams. Philadelphia was tempting to me this afternoon — but they simply lacked the reliable healthy targets on offense to make that a worthwhile play even with the avalanche of public money going on the Seahawks. San Francisco looks like they will be in decent shape tonight with both tight end George Kittle and wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel healthy enough to play. Although Jimmy Garoppolo continues to improve after completing 34 of 45 passes for 424 yards with four TD passes last week against the Cardinals even without those weapons. The 49ers will look to run the ball more tonight after they attempted only 19 rushes for 34 yards last week. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last contest. They should have tons of success running the ball again this Packers defense that is allowing 126.9 rushing YPG which is 25th in the NFL. The problem for this Green Bay defense is they play a Wide-Nine technique that puts tons of pressure on their interior linemen who struggle to hold the line of scrimmage. Those defensive tackles are vulnerable to double-teams — and their Wide-Nine spaces out defenders who could come in to help. The Packers are allowing 4 Yards-Per-Carry on both 1st and 2nd downs which is setting up effective play-action pass opportunities. Green Bay is also 31st in the NFL in Tackles-For-Loss. San Francisco should have great success running the football as they rank 2nd in the league by averaging 149.0 rushing YPG. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they enjoy a situational advantage by playing at home for their third straight week. The Niners are 4-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +14.4 net PPG due to their stifling defense that limits their guests to just 17.8 PPG along with only 250.2 total YPG. Green Bay is just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread win — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a bye week. This team traveled just yesterday to the west coast from Milwaukee with head coach Matt Nagy not trusting his players to not party all night as they did in their trip to Los Angeles where they preceded to lay an egg against the Chargers. Don’t be surprised if this team struggles with jet lag. More importantly, one of the reasons we took the Chargers in that game three weeks ago was that the underlying members are not great for this team cruising with just two losses. Five of their wins are by one scoring possession — and the Packers are actually being outgained this season by -18.7 net YPG which usually translates into a 4-6 record after ten games. And while Green Bay is 3-1 on the road, they are being outgained by a whopping 399 to 276.5 yardage margin in those four games. Furthermore, the Packers are being outgained by 78.0 net YPG over their last three contests. Somehow this team continues to win despite leading the league with 2 false starts on offense.

FINAL TAKE: The challenging travel arrangements for the Packers compounds the fact that this is the team’s fourth road game in their last five games. That is not a good sign for a team that faces an opponent that will look to out-muscle them in the trenches. Green Bay is also just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games in November. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (251) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (252). THE SITUATION: Miami (2-8) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 37-20 loss to Buffalo as a 7-point underdog. Cleveland (4-6) has won two straight games after they defeated Pittsburgh on November 14th by a 21-7 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Browns has been inconsistent this season — they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. This team benefitted from playing a depleted Steelers' offense that lost more players in that game after some questionable cheap shots that left Pittsburgh without their three best offensive weapons to complement quarterback Mason Rudolph who was starting in just his second game on the road. The Browns held the Steelers to just 236 yards of offense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 250 total yards. Cleveland stays at home where they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games. The Browns have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 26 games in November, Cleveland is just 7-18-1 ATS. Miami should respond with a strong effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Despite the tanking strategy by management, rookie head coach Brian Flores has this team playing hard — and they are dangerous with the savvy veteran in Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Over their last three games with Fitzpatrick back as the starting quarterback, the Dolphins are scoring a healthy 20.7 PPG. The Miami defense is also playing better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 22.3 PPG along with only 348.3 total YPG which is -46.2 net YPG below their season average. The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after the first month of the season. Miami has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 20 road games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 14 points. And in their last 5 games against AFC opponents, the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 4 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be without their top three pass rushers in this game with Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi suspended for this game after last week’s debacle at the end of the Steelers game and with Olivier Vernon out with a knee injury. This takes a big chunk out of the talent edge this Browns’ roster has against many teams. When considering that Cleveland gives back 103 yards in penalties when playing at home, take the double-digit underdog. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Miami Dolphins (251) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (257) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (258). THE SITUATION: New York (2-8) has lost six straight games after their 34-27 upset loss to the Jets two weeks ago back on November 10th as a 3-point favorite. Chicago (4-6) us reeling as well with five losses in their last six games after their 17-7 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears are a risky favorite laying close to a touchdown against any NFL opponent right now because of the utter collapse in the confidence of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. The third-year pro completed 24 of 43 passes last week for 190 yards while leading his offense to just 267 total yards. Chicago is 28th in the NFL by averaging 16.9 PPG — and they are 30th in the legacy by averaging only 262.7 total YPG. Things do not get better at home where they are scoring only 16.0 PPG while averaging winning just 277.8 total YPG. It has become clear that head coach Matt Nagy has lost confidence in Trubisky as he has taken plays out of the playbook — yet the stubborn offensive “genius” is unwilling to adapt the play-calling to Trubisky’s skill set because (and I am paraphrasing) he was not hired by the franchise to deviate from his basic offensive principles. We all can be geniuses if Patrick Mahomes is the one executing our chicken scratches in the sand. With defenses daring the Trubisky to throw the ball down field as they stack the box, the Bears are scoring a mere 13.7 PPG while averaging 219.0 total YPG over their last three games. Chicago rushed for only 74 yards last week — and they have not topped 81 rushing yards in each of their last three games. That is a bad sign for this team moving forward as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to top 99 rushing yards in their last two games. Furthermore, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after not averaging more than 225 Yards-Per-Game over their last three games. Additionally, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The defense has been helping the offense out as of late with the Bears winning the turnover battle in two straight games — but this team has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 53 games after enjoying a +1 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. New York has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing six games in a row. This team should benefit from their bye week — and head coach Pat Shurmur certainly used the time to vigorously prepare for this game with him being on the hot seat for next season. Expect running back Saquon Barkley to also benefit from the extra week off after he was embarrassed with just one rushing yard against the Jets in 13 carries. The Giants managed only 23 rushing yards overall in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 42 road games after only rushing for up to 75 yards in their last game. Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones has been playing better as of late Since Week Eight, Jones has completed 65.6% of his passes while averaging 280.0 passing YPG with 9 TD passes and only one interception. He has a nice Passer Rating of 100.6 over that span. He will not have tight end Evan Engram for this game as he still deals with his injured foot but wide receiver Sterling Shepard is set to return to the field after clearing the concussion protocol. The Giants have been a good road team relative to the point spread as of late — they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games away from home while also covering the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a losing record at home. New York has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games on the road as an underdog — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. And while the Giants have lost the turnover battle in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after having a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants just 27th in the league in total defense — but facing Trubisky will help them this afternoon. Chicago cannot even bank on piling up field goals with kicker Eddie Pineiro having missed three straight field goals along with four of his last seven attempts. New York has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Bears — expect a close game. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (257) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (110) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (109). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-4) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 33-13 win over Jacksonville as a 2.5-point favorite. Houston (6-4) saw their two-game winning streak end on Sunday with their 41-7 loss at Baltimore as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: The Texans should respond with a strong effort after their embarrassing effort on Sunday as they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread loss. They also are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games are failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Quarterback Deshaun Watson completed 18 of 29 passes against the Ravens for just 169 yards in that game with Houston only finishing with 110 net passing yards — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to pass for at least 150 passing yards. Now the Texans return home where they are 3-1 this season where they are outgaining their opponents by +44.5 net YPG. Houston has been playing much better defense as those where they are holding their visitors to just 21.0 PPG along with only 332.2 total YPG. They were gouged for 263 rushing yards to the Ravens’ rushing attack last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. And while Houston has given up 408.3 total YPG over their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after allowing at last 400 YPG over their last three games. The Texans have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win at home. And while the Colts have won four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The Indianapolis offense will be hampered with injuries for this game being played on a short week. Running back Marlon Mack will also be out several weeks after fracturing his hand last week in the third quarter after leading the team with 108 rushing yards. And while wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and tight end Eric Ebron has practiced yesterday and are expected to play tonight, their respective effectiveness remains in question as they are dealing with their calf and ankle injuries. Even backup running back, Jordan Wilkins, is slowed with a hamstring injury. QB Jacoby Brissett completed 15 of 24 passes for 148 passing yards last week — and Indy has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for no more than 150 passing yards in their last game. These are far from optimal conditions for an offense that ranks 21st in the NFL by averaging 343.8 total YPG — and that number drops to just 330.7 total YPG that they average on the road. The Colts go back on the road after playing their last two games at home — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of the last 7 games after a two-game homestand. And while Indianapolis has not allowed more than 90 rushing yards in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Colts’ 30-23 win over the Texans back on October 20th in Indianapolis where they were 1.5-point favorites. Houston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 28 points. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Houston Fox-TV Special with the Houston Texans (110) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (476) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (475). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (6-4) has lost two of their last three games as well as four of their last six contests after their 35-32 upset loss at Tennessee as a 5-point favorite last week. Los Angeles (4-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped two Thursdays ago with their 26-21 upset loss at Oakland as a 1-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after suffering an upset loss. Additionally, the Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after a close loss by 3 points or less. Los Angeles is also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a point spread setback. The Chargers are playing better football as they get relatively healthy and running back Melvin Gordon gets himself into playing shape after ending his contractual holdout. Gordon comes off his best game this season with 108 rushing yards against the Raiders. The Chargers have an underrated defense — they are 6th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 19.4 PPG and they are also 6th in the league by limiting these foes to only 318.6 total YPG. Los Angeles has held its last three opponents to just 17.7 PPG along with only 283.3 total YPG. Improved run defense has been fundamental to Chargers’ playing even better on that side of the football. After getting gouged for 162 rushing yards at Chicago three weeks ago, Los Angeles held the Packers to only 45 rushing yards before limiting the Raiders last week to just 78 rushing yards. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in November — and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher including covering the point spread in these last five situations. Kansas City has failed to cove the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by 6 points or less. The suspect Chiefs defense gave up 371 yards to the Titans last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 total yards in their last game. Kansas City is 23rd in the NFL by allowing 369.5 total YPG. The Chiefs have surrendered 29.7 PPG over their last three games. Kansas City’s biggest vulnerability with their defense is in stopping the run as they are allowing 148.1 rushing YPG which is 30th in the NFL. The Chiefs lean on Patrick Mahomes to bail their defense out — and they have averaged 453.5 YPG over their last two contests. But Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after averaging at least 450 YPG in their last two games. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in Week 10 through 13.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers practiced all week at the football facilities at the Air Force Academy in Colorado where the altitude is similar to what they will experience tonight in Mexico City. Don’t be surprised if the Chiefs struggle a bit in the second half of this game. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games as an underdog. 10* NFL Kansas City-LA Chargers ESPN Special with the Los Angeles Chargers (476) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (474) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (473). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-5) snapped their four-game winning streak last week with their 20-10 win at home over Detroit as a 6-point favorite. Los Angeles (5-4) had their two-game winning streak end last week with their 17-12 loss at Pittsburgh as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles should rebound with a strong effort. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Rams rushed for only 88 yards in that game against the Steelers — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not rushing for at least 90 yards in their last game. Los Angeles is getting better play from their defense since the acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey. They have held their last three opponents to just 12.3 PPG along with only 299.3 total YPG. The Steelers rushed for only 42 yards last week — and the Rams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the NFC — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after win by no more than 7 points against an NFC North rival. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky completed 16 of 23 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns passes — but if you think those numbers are a refection of a sudden improvement in his play, the ole eyeball test suggested otherwise during this game. The Bears only held a 7-6 lead at halftime against the Lions team playing without Matthew Stafford. Chicago only had 13 first downs in that game while being outgained by -131 net yards due to their stagnant offense that managed only 226 yards against a Detroit team that entered that game ranked second-to-last in total defense. Trubisky looks lost in his third season as a professional — and perhaps the bigger indictment of his development is that head coach Matt Nagy has lost confidence in him as evidenced by his conservative play-calling. The Bears are 29th in the league by averaging 262.2 total YPG — and they are scoring just 16.7 PPG while averaging 259.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Chicago defense allowed a Lions; offense playing with the injured Stafford to gain 357 yards last week — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bears’ rushing attack did not do much to help Trubisky out last week as they managed only 81 yards on the ground. Chicago has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards. Furthermore, the Bears only gained 164 yards the previous week in Philadelphia against the Eagles — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Sean McVay and the rest of this Rams team will have revenge on their mind from their embarrassing 15-6 loss in the frigid December weather in Chicago at night last season. It was just a short week ago where the conventional wisdom had evolved that the Rams had turned the corner from their slow start with a two-game winning streak. Look for LA to earn a decisive victory. 10* NFL Chicago-LA Rams NBC-TV Special with the Los Angeles Rams (474) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (456) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (455). THE SITUATION: Carolina (5-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 24-16 loss at Green Bay last week as a 5-point underdog. Atlanta (2-7) snapped their six-game losing streak with their 26-9 loss at New Orleans as a 14-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: Carolina should respond with a strong effort as they have consistently done under the leadership of head coach Ron Rivera. The Panthers have covered the point spread in a decisive 62 of their last 100 games after a loss on the road including covering point spread expectations in seven of these last ten situations. And while Carolina has won five of their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 30 of their last 44 home games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Panthers have only covered the point spread once in their last three games but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three contests. Quarterback Kyle Allen completed 28 of 43 passes for 307 yards against the Packers while displaying grit by almost leading his team to victory in the snowy conditions at Lambeau Field before seeing his last-minute drive fall one yard short as time expired. Carolina gained 401 yards against Green Bay — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. And while Carolina endured a -2 net turnover margin, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Atlanta will likely suffer a letdown after their emotional upset win in the Big Easy last week. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. This team stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games when playing at least two straight games away from home. The Falcons running game is in shambles with Devonta Freeman out for this game with his ankle injury. With his primary backup, Ito Smith, on Injured Reserve, it looks like the primary ball-handling chores will go to Brian Hill whose experience escapes me right now (and no time to check …). Quarterback Matt Ryan will also be without the most productive tight end in fantasy football in this game in Austin Hooper — and remember that this team traded away Mohamad Sanu which leaves the supporting cast with this loaded offense suddenly a bit thin. The Falcons defense played their best game of the season last week by limiting the Saints to just 310 yards after head coach Dan Quinn handing over playcalling duties to his assistant coaches (Raheem Morris is now responsible for calling the plays on passing downs). That one trick pony worked as a surprise last week against New Orleans but now Rivera and company can adapt. Atlanta is 28th in the NFL by allowing 28.8 PPG. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has won six of the last seven meetings between these two teams — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in Carolina against the Panthers. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Carolina Panthers (456) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (309) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (310). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (5-4) has won four straight games with their 17-12 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Rams as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Cleveland (3-6) snapped their four-game losing streak on Sunday with their 19-16 win at home over Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: There are some situational aspects to this game which I think I give the Browns the edge. However, in what is considered a coin flip outcome by the oddsmakers, I think there are some overwhelming intangibles where the Steelers have the edge. First, Mike Tomlin and his staff have a significant advantage in preparing for this game on a short week. Rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens is experiencing growing pains going from a running backs coach at the beginning of last season to now being a deal head coach and offensive coordinator for the first time (for an entire season) this year — and his job is complicated by all the personalities on his roster along with the unreasonable expectations placed on this squad which would be a challenge for even the most savvy veteran NFL coach. Second, Cleveland gives away tons of yardage in their mistakes via penalties. They are averaging nine penalties a game which is accounting for 78 YPG — and they have averaged 10 penalties per game over their last three contests which has accounted for 99 YPG. The Browns have been consistently inconsistent as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Third, Cleveland’s proclivity to make mistakes extends to turning the ball over — they are averaging 1.9 turnovers per game with a -0.90 net turnover margin per game. The Steelers are second in the league with 26 takeaways which have all taken place after the first week of the season. Pittsburgh averages 2.9 takeaways per game with that number rising to a 3.7 average over their last three games. There is a reason this underachieving franchise is now 5-21-2 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. The Browns are also just 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as the favorite. Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as the favorite. And while the Browns gained 368 yards last week against the Bills, they are then just 12-30-4 ATS in their last 46 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh’s winning culture has helped them go 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a point spread victory. The Steelers are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on Thursday night. Pittsburgh has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games as a dog getting up to 7 points. The surging Steelers’ defense is holding their opponents to just 16.7 PPG over their last three games along with only 288.0 total YPG over that span. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow opponents from the AFC North. With James Connor returning to the field to jumpstart their running game, look for Pittsburgh to be in position to pull the upset (but take the points for some insurance). 10* NFL Pittsburgh-Cleveland Fox-TV Special with Pittsburgh Steelers (309) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (273) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (274). THE SITUATION: Seattle (7-2) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 40-34 win over Tampa Bay last week in overtime as a 4-point favorite. San Francisco (8-0) remained unbeaten two Thursdays ago with their 28-25 win at Arizona as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after playing a game where both teams scored at least 30 points. The Seahawks have also played 6 straight games on the road Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. Russell Wilson should keep his team within one scoring possession (at least) in this game — he leads an offense that is tops in the NFL in the 2-minute drill. Seattle has scored at least 27 points in their last two games as well as in seven of their nine contests this season — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Wilson completed 29 of 43 passes last week against the Buccaneers for 378 yards with five touchdown passes and no interceptions — and the Seahawks are 27-12-3 ATS in their last 42 games after a game where they generated at least 250 passing yards. Seattle goes back on the road where they are 4-0 this season with an average winning margin of +7.5 PPG. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record at home. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 6 straight road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Moving forward, the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in November. Seattle is also 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games played on Monday Night Football. San Francisco generated 411 yards last week against the Cardinals — but they are 14-30-1 ATS in their last 45 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after playing a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Furthermore, this franchise has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning at least eight straight games. San Francisco has only covered the point spread once in their last three games as well — and they have failed to cover the point spread 8 of their last 12 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Niners also lost the heart and soul of their defense last week with the season-ending chest injury to linebacker Kwan Alexander. Now they return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home laying no more than 7 points. San Francisco is also just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 8 games against teams from the NFC West, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings with the 49ers — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against the Niners in San Francisco. 10* NFL Seattle-San Francisco ESPN Special with the Seattle Seahawks (273) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (271) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (272). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-3) looks to bounce-back from their 26-23 upset loss at Kansas City last week as a 5.5-point favorite that snapped their four-game winning streak. Dallas (5-3) has won two straight games with their 37-18 win in New York against the Giants last Monday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Minnesota should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road. The Vikings have also rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. This is a dreaded prime-time game for quarterback Kirk Cousins. He has 5-12 straight-up record as the starting QB in televised prime-time games — but the underlying numbers are not bad that accompany those seventeen starts. Cousins was very sharp in his prime-time game last month against Washington where he completed 23 of 26 passes for 285 passing yards on Thursday Night Football. Wide receiver Adam Thielen is out for this game — but Minnesota is likely to lean heavily on their dynamic rushing attack with Delvin Cook leading the way for them to average a robust 153.0 rushing YPG which is third in the NFL. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 18 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And the field turf will not be anything new for this team that plays on this same surface for their home games — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games played on field turf. The Vikings will lean on their defense that ranks 4th by allowing only 17.6 PPG while also ranking 8th by giving up just 320.9 total YPG. Dallas dominated the Giants last week by outgaining them by a 429 to 271 yardage margin — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards in their last game. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a short week after a game on Monday Night Football. Dallas has benefited from a soft schedule so far this season that has included the Giants twice along with the Jets, Washington and Miami who entered the day with a combined 6-30 record with none of those four teams having won more than two victories. Of course, the Cowboys lost to that Jets team that later handed the Dolphins their first win of the season. Dallas’ only win against a team with a winning record this year was against the Eagles — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 36 home games when favored to up to 3 points, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have covered the point spread in their last 4 meetings with the Cowboys. Look for a close game where Minnesota will have the opportunity to pull the upset. 10* NFL Minnesota-Dallas NBC-TV Special with the Minnesota Vikings (271) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.