At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri Tigers (320) minus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (319). THE SITUATION: Missouri (0-1) looks to bounce-back from an upset 37-31 loss at Wyoming last Saturday despite being a 15-point favorite. West Virginia (1-0) comes off a 20-13 win at home over James Madison as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Missouri raced out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter while dominating the yardage battle with the Cowboys by a 144 to 28 margin. But then the turnover bug hit the Tigers with Wyoming taking full advantage to go into halftime with a 27-17 lead. Missouri outgained the Cowboys by a dominant 537 to 389 yardage margin but their -3 net turnover margin cost them the game — including a fumble that Wyoming returned for a 33-yard touchdown. The Tigers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after an upset loss on the road laying at least a touchdown — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. Additionally, Missouri has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 33 of their last 49 home games after a loss on the road. The silver lining for this team was the strong play under center of quarterback Kelly Bryant. The former Clemson quarterback completed 31 of 48 passes for 423 yards with two touchdowns. The transfer looks to be a fine replacement for the graduated Drew Lock who was drafted by the Denver Broncos. Thirteen starters returned from an 8-5 team last year with seven joining Bryant on offense and six starters along with five of the top seven tacklers back on defense. Now this team returns home where they have covered the point spread 8 of their last 11 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. West Virginia escaped suffering an upset loss to a James Madison team that ranks #2 in the nation in the FCS. But it is not a good sign for this team that the Dukes dominated both sides of the line of scrimmage. That does not bode well when now traveling to face an SEC team with five offensive linemen that all weigh at least 310 pounds. The Mountaineers survived that game through special teams and turnovers. West Virginia blocked a field goal and recovered a muffed point en route to a +3 net turnover advantage. The Mountaineers only generated 13 first downs against the Dukes defense while losing the yardage battle by a 328 to 294 margin. This is a football program in transition after head coach Dana Holgorsen departed on his own volition to take the head coaching job at Houston after an 8-4 season that finished with a 34-18 loss to Syracuse in the Camping World Bowl. Perhaps Holgorsen saw the writing on the wall this year with only three starters returning on offense from a group that lost its top five players including QB Will Grier, their top three wide receivers, and left tackle Yodney Cajuste. The new head coach is Neal Brown who did a good job at Troy — but only after enduring a 4-9 record in his first year rebuilding that program. Brown brought in Oklahoma grad transfer Austin Kendall to be his starting quarterback — but he kept him on a short leash least week with him mostly dinking-and-dunking to completing 27 passes of his 42 attempts for 260 yards. West Virginia only rushed for 34 yards in that game which is not a good sign traveling on the road to Mizzou — they are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. The Mountaineers are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games after a straight-up win.

FINAL TAKE: West Virginia is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. They face a more talented team that will be very angry after suffering a bad upset loss on the road. 25* CFB ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Missouri Tigers (320) minus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (303) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (304). THE SITUATION: Marshall (1-0) looks to build off their 56-17 win over VMI last Saturday as a 44-point favorite. Boise State (1-0) is riding high after pulling off a 36-31 upset win in Tallahassee against Florida State as a 6.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos found themselves trailing by 24-6 and 31-13 scores in the second quarter before skunking the Seminoles in the second-half by a 17-0 score to pull off that 18-point comeback for the upset win. Florida State head coach Willie Taggart blamed a lack of conditioning for his team’s collapse with many players dealing with cramps in the August Florida heat. Boise State will not receive similar luck this week against this well-coached Marshall team in the tenth season under head coach Doc Holliday. The key for this Broncos team this year will be the play of their quarterback after seeing their four-year starter in Brett Rypien finally graduate and move on to the NFL in the offseason. The highly touted true freshman, Hank Bachmeier, played as great as could possibly be expected on Saturday by completing 30 of 51 passes for 407 yards. But this sets up this very young quarterback and the rest of this team to suffer a huge emotional letdown after last week’s second-half triumph. Remember, these are the same players that dug that 18-point hole. Despite the mystique of the blue field in Boise, the Broncos have not been a very good team relative to point spread expectations at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games. Boise State has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. This remains a team that lost a number of important pieces on offense last year from their 10-3 team. Besides replacing the four-year starting quarterback, the Broncos lost their workhorse running back, Alexander Mattison, who rushed for over 1400 yards last year along with their top two receivers. These veterans helped the offense convert on 52.5% of their 3rd downs which was 3rd best in the nation — that is a number that is bound to regress. Boise State is also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The defense returns seven starters but lost four of their top five players in tackles-for-loss. But this is a unit that only picked off seven passes which is the fewest for this program since 1968. The Broncos were also third-best in the nation by recovering 74% of the fumbles they saw on the field. If that number regresses back to the expected 50% mean, this team probably does not win 10 times last year. Marshall should be very excited to prove that they belong in the conversation regarding the top non-Power Five conference teams in the FBS. They return fourteen starters from last year’s 9-4 team that concluded their season by crushing South Florida in their stadium by a 38-20 score in the Gasparilla Bowl. Quarterback Isaiah Green led an offense that generated 503 yards against the Bulls — he enters his sophomore year with confidence who will likely take a big step in his development. Green completed 18 of 28 passes (to eleven different targets) for 238 yards and four touchdown passes while adding another 46 yards on the ground in a good tune-up for this team. The Thundering Herd bring an underrated defense into this game as well with six starters back from last year’s group that was tied for 27th in the nation by limiting opponents to just 338.7 total YPG. The Marshall run defense ranked 8th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 104.3 rushing YPG — and this was no fluke after ranking 19th in the nation in run defense in 2017. The Thundering Herd held VMI to only 56 rushing yards while outrushing them by 222 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +200 yards. Marshall has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in fifteen straight games — so they will likely force the true freshman quarterback to beat them. The Thundering Herd forced 24 turnovers last season — don’t be surprised if an overconfident Bachmeier makes some mistakes tonight. Holliday usually has his team ready to play in the early part of the season — they are 15-7-3 ATS in their last 25 games in the month of September.

FINAL TAKE: Marshall embraces the role of the underdog — they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games getting the points which include them covering the point spread in five of their last six games on the road as an underdog. Expect the Thundering Herd to keep this game closer than expected. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Marshall Thundering Herd (303) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (218) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (0-0) returns thirteen starters from the team that lost to Clemson in the National Semifinals by a 30-3 score. Louisville (0-0) has sixteen starters back from last year’s dumpster fire that limped to a 2-10 season record.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisville was a complete dumpster fire last year under head coach Bobby Petrino who checked out from working hard as a football coach a number of years ago. The Cardinals were kryptonite to bettors last year as they suffered point spread losses by an average of -17.5 PPG — and they failed to cover the point spread by -21.8 PPG over their last five games when the players had clearly quit on the team. Kudos to those who consistently bet against Louisville down the stretch of the season (I just stayed away since any nominal increase in effort would have likely produced a point spread cover as double-digit dogs in those games). The Cardinals still have talent that first-year head coach Scott Satterfield has inherited including fourteen returning starters. While the Louisville defense allowed at least 52 points in each of their last five games, they held their first five opponents to a more manageable 26.0 PPG along with 385.8 total YPG — and those numbers are a better guide as to what to expect this season before this team went off the rails. Satterfield did a great job rebuilding the Appalachian State program — and while it will take awhile to rebuild the culture at Louisville, he will get this team playing hard again. The defense seems rejuvenated playing for defensive coordinator Bryan Brown after their humiliating end to last season — he brings an attacking system that emphasizes speed and smarts that was very effective for the Mountaineers. Satterfield also tapped Cort Dennison to serve as the co-defensive coordinator as he returns to the program after coaching at Oregon last year after a four-year stint as an assistant defensive coach for Petrino with the Cardinals — so he knows the players when they were younger and playing in a much more confident group. Notre Dame may be looking past this Louisville team after losing to the eventual national champions in the College Football Semifinals in their last game. Facing the Cardinals is a steep drop in glamour after hosting Michigan to begin last season. The Fighting Irish defense is likely to take a step or two back with the loss of three key members of last year’s unit that have moved on to the NFL. The middle of the defense appears vulnerable with the Irish replacing two good defensive tackles along with two good linebackers — that level of the defense is now inexperienced and lacking in depth. And while Notre Dame has two great safeties in seniors Jalen Elliott and Alohi Gilman, it will be tough to replace the elite cover cornerback Julian Love who bypassed his senior year to go to the NFL. On offense, the Irish are excited about what senior Ian Book can do as the starter for the entire season — they averaged 36.6 PPG in his eight regular-season starts last year (before being exposed by the outstanding Clemson defense). But Book is missing two of his important targets in wide receiver Michael Young and tight end Cole Kmet who are both out with collarbone injuries. Notre Dame is also dealing with some significant attrition on offense with running back Dexter Williams along with wide receiver Miles Boykin and tight end Alize Mack moving on to the NFL. The Irish are not quite at the level of the elite college football teams in their ability to just reload after seeing significant losses to the NFL. The last time Notre Dame lost this much talent, they suffered a 4-8 season the next year.

FINAL TAKE: The Fighting Irish have won twenty-two of their last twenty-six games — but they have also won their last seven games decided by one possession including four net close wins by 8 points or less last season. While Kelly deserves credit for the leadership he has provided for this team to win these close games, those results help to inflate the perceived value of this team. Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games when laying 14.5 or more points. 10* CFB Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Louisville Cardinals (218) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217) and the Louisville Cardinals (218). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (0-0) returns thirteen starters from the team that lost to Clemson in the National Semifinals by a 30-3 score. Louisville (0-0) has sixteen starters back from last year’s dumpster fire that limped to a 2-10 season record.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Fighting Irish return seven starters with an offense that might be the most potent in head coach Brian Kelly’s ten years with the program. Kelly’s decision to elevate Ian Book to be his starting quarterback despite a 3-0 start to the season was inspired as the team averaged 36.6 PPG in his eight starts. The move to Book gave the Notre Dame offense a legitimate passing threat that they have not had in years to balance their strong rushing attack. Book threw at least two touchdown passes in all eight of his regular-season starts. While the Irish are dealing with injuries to junior wide receiver Michael Young and junior tight end Cole Kmet, the Irish have depth at the running back and wide receiver skill positions. The offense also has the benefit of four returning starters on offense. However, the Notre Dame defense is likely to take a step or two back with the loss of three key members of last year’s unit that have moved on to the NFL. The middle of the defense appears vulnerable with the Irish replacing two good defensive tackles along with two good linebackers — that level of the defense is now inexperienced and lacking in depth. And while Notre Dame has two great safeties in seniors Jalen Elliott and Alohi Gilman, it will be tough to replace the elite cover cornerback Julian Love who bypassed his senior year to go to the NFL. The Fighting Irish have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total when laying 14.5 to 21 points. Notre Dame has also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total with the number set in the 49.5 to 56 point range — and this includes them playing four of their last five games on the road Over the Total with the number set in that range. Louisville cannot help but be better on defense this season after they ranked 122nd in the nation by allowing 483.6 total YPG. While ten starters return from that group, new head coach Scott Satterfield and his defensive coordinator at Appalachian State, Bryan Brown, have a major rebuilding task to clean up the hot mess that Bobby Petrino left behind after being fired late in the season. The Cardinals surrendered at least 52 points in each of their last five games — so it will likely be a long road back for this group. Louisville’s improvement should happen faster on the offensive side of the football under Satterfield who emphasized more running in the spread offensive attacks as the head coach at Appalachian State. Satterfield has tapped junior quarterback Jawon Pass to be his starter with a simplified playbook from the 2007 NFL playbook Petrino was still relying on from his year with the Atlanta Falcons. Satterfield will likely also give reps to Malik Cunningham who led the team in rushing last year and can better execute the rushing attack under center. The Cardinals have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Louisville has also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog — and this includes them playing four of their last five home games Over the Total as the dog. And in their last 22 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points, the Cardinals have played 14 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Louisville averaged just 19.8 PPG last year (tied for 121s in the nation) while Notre Dame surrendered just 18.2 PPG (13th in the nation). Look for the Cardinals to score at least 20 points tonight with their offense improved and the Irish defense losing three players to the NFL. With the Irish a favorite approaching 20 points, Louisville scoring 20 points should put this game way Over the number given the number the Notre Dame is likely to put up in this game. 25* CFB ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217) and the Louisville Cardinals (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (215) and the Oklahoma Sooners (216). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-0) returns twelve starters from a team that finished 8-5 after suffering a humiliating 70-14 loss to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl. Oklahoma (0-0) has twelve starters back from the group that lost to Alabama in the College Football Playoff Semifinals by a 45-34 score.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sooners led the nation last year by averaging 48.4 PPG along with generating 570.3 total YPG. After seeing their offense improve their numbers in each of the last four seasons, the Regression Gods were likely to make a visit to Norman this year. But with Jalen Hurts the new starting quarterback for this team after his transfer from Alabama. Hurts has outstanding leadership skills as he led (the uber-talented) Crimson Tide to a 24-2 record as a starter. But Hurts does not have the same talent as Tua Tagovailoa nor Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray who have been the two Heisman Trophy winners that Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley has had at his disposal over the last two years. In four playoff game appearances, Hurts completed just 43% of his passes for the Tide while averaging just 3.7 Yards-Per-Attempt. There is a reason he was benched at halftime of the 2017 National Championship game against Georgia. The Sooners are also almost completely rebuilding their offensive line with four starters from last year departed to play in the NFL. Mayfield had the benefit of five returning starters on the offensive line two years with Murray having three returning starters last year. Hurts is not getting the same good opening hand as his two predecessors at Oklahoma. Even if the Sooners just reach their 48.4 PPG scoring mark from last year in this game, the Under should still be in pretty good shape with them being 23 or so point favorites against the Cougars. Of course, the Oklahoma defense was a mess last year as they ranked last in the Big 12 by allowing 33.3 PPG along with 453.8 total YPG. This unit can probably not help but improve under new defensive coordinator Alex Grinch who oversaw a very good defense in a previous stint at Washington State. Grinch has installed a new “positionless” scheme that emphasizes aggressiveness and play-making. This may be a better fit than the staler ideas of previous coordinate Mike Stoops. The Sooners’ secondary should be better with three juniors returning as starters who have received a baptism by fire last year. Houston will be installing a new offensive Air Raid scheme under new head coach Dana Holgorsen. The Cougars are happy to have a fully-healthy D’Eriq King back under center after he suffered a season-ending injury in mid-November. But this is an offense that Oklahoma is very familiar with given its deployment by many of the teams in the Big 12. Houston also had defensive issues last season after allowing 37.2 PPG along with 496.4 total YPG. That unit was ravaged by injuries — they allowed a more manageable 28.0 PPG in their first six games before their depleted unit surrendered 45.0 PPG in their final seven games. This defense will have something to prove after their embarrassing effort against Army in their bowl game where the team had checked out on head coach Major Applewhite. Holgorsen has proclaimed that playing good defense is a “high priority” for him — he has hired a good defensive coordinator in Joe Cauthen whose attacking style running the defense at Arkansas State led to 146 sacks over the last four seasons. Holgorsen has added six junior college transfers to improve the talent of this group led by cornerback Damarion Williams who was a junior college All-American last year. The Cougars have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in the first half of the regular season. Houston has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams from the Big 12.

FINAL TAKE: With the Total eclipsing the 80 point mark in some spots, it will take a high level of offensive production of both teams to reach the Over. Don’t be surprised if both of these potent offenses make some execution mistakes in this opening game. This logic helps to inform a historical angle supporting the Under that has been 75% effective since 1992. In games in the first two weeks of the season with the Total set at 63 or higher between two teams from major 1-A conferences, when at least one of the teams returns a starting quarterback from the previous season, the game finished Under the Total in 40 of these last 53 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFB ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (215) and the Oklahoma Sooners (216). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:44 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (208) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (207). THE SITUATION: Auburn (0-0) returns fourteen starters from last year’s team that finished off an 8-5 season by destroying Purdue by a 63-14 score in the Music City Bowl. Oregon (0-0) has seventeen starters back from their 9-4 campaign last year that concluded with a 7-6 win over Michigan State in the Redbox Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Ducks are intriguing to many bettors with all those returning starters to a program that once represented the Pac-12 on the national stage in high profile games like this. Oregon also has one of the top NFL quarterback projects in Justin Herbert who bypassed going pro to return to this team. But this Ducks team has made most of their noise as of late when playing at home in Autzen Stadium where they enjoy a significant advantage. But Oregon has lost eight of their last twelve games away from home on neutral fields or hostile environments. The Ducks were outscored in those games by -5.1 net PPG while scoring just 25 PPG. Oregon has also been outgained by -61 net YPG in those twelve away games. This compares unfavorably to their 12-2 record in their last fourteen games at home where they are scoring 44.4 PPG while outscoring their opponents by +19.4 PPG. Herbert was not nearly as effective away from home last year as well. The Ducks scored only 27.3 PPG on the road last year which was -7.5 PPG lower than their season average — and they also averaged just 209 passing YPG in those games which was almost 40 yards less than their 248 passing YPG mark overall. The Oregon defense is also an issue for this team if they wish to take a step up in competition — they ranked just 55th in the nation by allowing 385.9 total YPG. The Ducks have lost four straight games away from home when facing a ranked opponent. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the Pac-12. And in their last 10 games as an underdog, Oregon has failed to cover the point spread 7 times. Auburn will be starting a freshman at quarterback in Bo Nix after he enjoyed a prolific high school career in Alabama. But this is a program that is well versed in high profile games like this. Besides their SEC competition including the Iron Bowl with Alabama every year, the Tigers defeated Washington in Atlanta on the neutral field of Mercedez Benz Stadium last year by a 21-16 score — and I consider that Huskies team to be much better than this Ducks team now. Auburn has won eleven of their last thirteen opening games to a new season. Oregon has received tons of accolades in the offseason with their five returning starters on the offensive line who lead the entire FBS with 153 combined starts between them. But the Tigers have five 5th year senior starters on their offensive line to help protect Nix. Furthermore, Auburn may very well have the best defensive line in the country. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Auburn has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on field turf.

FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have won six straight games straight-up against Pac-12 opponents when playing on a neutral field with their win over the Huskies adding to that streak last year. While the departed Jarrett Stidham has looked very good in the preseason for the Patriots (and he just won the backup job today with New England releasing Brian Hoyer), Nix may be a better fit for the Gus Malzahn offense given his ability to move the ball with his legs. 10* CFB Oregon-Auburn ABC-TV Special with the Auburn Tigers (208) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (207). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Toledo Rockets (171) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (172). THE SITUATION: Toledo (0-0) returns eleven starters from last year’s 7-6 team that lost to Florida International in the Bahamas Bowl by a 35-32 score. Kentucky (0-0) has ten starters back from last year’s triumphant 10-3 squad who defeated Penn State in the Citrus Bowl by a 27-24 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS PLUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats are the only team in the nation to not take a step backward regarding their win-loss record in the last six seasons. Seventh-year head coach Mark Stoops has done a fantastic job building this program. But this Kentucky team will be very hard-pressed to keep that streak alive this season. This is a program that is simply not used to losing All-SEC talent — but Stoops must replace three players on defense who have taken their talents to the NFL in safety Mike Edwards, linebacker Jordan Jones and their leader on defense in linebacker Josh Allen who bypassed going to the NFL as a junior last season. The Wildcats return only four starters on defense. The identity of the offense will also change with running back Benny Snell decided to go pro. Kentucky will rely on a committee of running backs this season while putting more of the onus on offense on junior quarterback Terry Wilson. The Wildcats were a defense-first team last year that leaned heavily on Snell — a change in identity may not fit the skill set of Wilson who passed for only 1889 yards last year while throwing just 11 touchdowns along with eight interceptions. Kentucky finished 5-3 in SEC play last year but they were outgained by -18 net YPG in those games. This team has pulled ten upset victories in the last three years under Stoops — but being a double-digit favorite is a role they are not nearly as comfortable with embracing. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games when laying the points. Additionally, Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams outside the SEC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in six straight non-conference games at home. Toledo will be relishing this opportunity to knock off a Power-Five school. They should get much better play from quarterback Mitchell Guadagni who returns for his senior season. Guadagni was slowed by both a concussion and a broken collarbone last year but still managed an efficient 13-to-3 touchdown to interception ratio. He is supported by a backfield of Bryant Koback and Shakif Seymour who combined to rush for 1482 yards last year. The Rockets have typically been tough road warriors under Candle as they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games on the road. Toledo has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games in the month of August.

FINAL TAKE: Kentucky would like to think they are simply reloading this season — but this is a program that more often than not finds themselves rebuilding after outlier seasons like last year. Look for the Rockets to give this Wildcats team all that they can handle. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Kickoff with the Toledo Rockets (171) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (172). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (169) and the Indiana Hoosiers (170). THE SITUATION: Ball State (0-0) returns seventeen starters from their team that finished 4-8 last season. Indiana (0-0) returns fourteen starters from last year’s 5-7 team. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals were hit hard by transfers in the offseason with six players leaving the program. The offense lost two incumbent starters from last year in senior quarterback Riley Neal who transferred to Vanderbilt and senior running back James Gilbert who moved to Kansas State. There is an argument to be had that perhaps both these players were going to lose their jobs this season. On the other hand, Neal had started 32 games for Ball State while throwing for 7393 yards and 46 touchdown passes while Gilbert rushed for 2806 yards in his career with the program — and that was good enough to entice two football programs in Power Five conferences. Ball State was just 102nd in the FBS last year by scoring just 4.2 points per trip inside the 40-yard line. Any improvements on offense will likely not materialize right away. As it is, the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. I do expect to see significant improvements from the Ball State defense that returns nine starters. This is the second year for this unit playing in a 3-4 formation. This move worked for the first seven games last year under defensive coordinator David Elson as they hold those first seven opponents to just 23.9 PPG. But injuries eventually took their toll as the Cardinals allowed their last five opponents to score 44.4 PPG as their lack of depth was exposed. Back at full health and with better depth from the experiences from last season, Ball State should be much improved in the second year playing in the 3-4 look. They return seventeen players who registered at teals ten tackles last year. The Cardinals have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the Mid-American Conference — and they have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against Big Ten foes. Ball State has also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Indiana has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big Ten. The Hoosiers defense regressed last year with only three returning starters — they allowed 423.8 total YPG which was 83.7 YPG more than what they surrendered in 2017 when they ranked 27th in the nation in total defense. Don’t be surprised if this unit approaches those strong defensive numbers from two years ago with seven starters back along with eight of their top eleven tacklers from last year. Tom Allen feels confident enough with this group that he promoted linebackers coach Kane Wommack to defensive coordinator to free up his time focus exclusively with his head coaching duties. Allen has already made a big move by tapping redshirt freshman Michael Penix as the starting quarterback to replace returning starter Peyton Ramsey. Penix has a better runner with a stronger arm — but with this team playing in a new system under first-year offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer, it might take some time for this unit to gel. The Hoosiers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. They also have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with the number set in the 56.5 to 63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Indiana won last year’s rivalry game between these two schools by a 38-10 score with that result falling well short of the 62.5 point Total. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (169) and the Indiana Hoosiers (170). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (159) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (160). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (0-0) returns twelve starters from a team that finished 7-6 after upsetting Missouri in the Liberty Bowl by a 38-33 score. Oregon State (0-0) returns sixteen starters from last year’s team that stumbled to a 2-10 record.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma State is usually a reliable double-digit favorite even on the road under head coach Mike Gundy beginning his fifteenth year with the program. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games when laying 10.5 to 14 points. After three straight seasons with double-digit victories, Oklahoma State took a step back last year. Despite scoring 38.4 PPG (13th in the FBS) and averaging 500.2 total YPG (10th in the FBS), the offense took a step back from the previous season in large part because their quarterbacks completed only 59.4% of their passes while throwing 13 interceptions. In 2017, the Cowboys scored 45.0 PPG while generating 569.8 total YPG which was 4th and 2nd best in the country. Gundy may have found a gem to be his new offensive coordinator in Sean Gleeson who ran a very innovative offense at Princeton. Oklahoma State will have the benefit of surprise regarding what specialty plays Gleeson unveils in his debut with this offense. The Cowboys have not named a starting quarterback between redshirt freshman Spencer Sanders and graduate transfer Dru Brown who both were on the roster last season learning this offense. Gleeson often used more than one QB at Princeton so don’t be surprised if Oklahoma State rotates both quarterbacks tonight to confuse the Beavers with different looks. The Cowboys remain loaded with talent at the skill positions with three of their top four receivers returning this season — headlined by junior All-American Tylan Wallace — along with running back Chuba Hubbard who averaged over 100 rushing YPG against the gauntlet of Oklahoma, West Virginia, TCU and Missouri. Gundy’s teams start strong as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played in the month of August. Oklahoma State has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games outside the Big-12. And in their last 17 contests in expected high-scoring affairs with the Total set at 63 or higher, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 11 of these games. The defense should improve in the second season under defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. Oregon State’s passing attack is the strength of their offense with returning starters at wide receiver and a sixth-year senior Jake Luton who has received medical exemptions after injuries have limited him to just nine starters in the last two seasons. But the strength of the Cowboys defense will likely be their secondary with all four starters returning. Oregon State will be without their top wideout in the speedy Trevon Bradford as the senior is out with a back injury. The Beavers may also be without their senior safety Jalen Moore who is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. These are two tough opening week injuries that will make it more difficult for Oregon State to stay competitive in this game. The Beavers were outscored by -20 PPG last season while also losing the yardage battle by -132 net YPG — and that margin was even worse in Pac-12 play where they were outgained by -178 YPG. Moore had 102 tackles last season — and even with him on the field, Oregon State allowed their opponents to have a Success Rate of 53.4% which was 129th in the FBS. That is an ominous number when facing this powerful Cowboys offensive attack. The Beavers allowed 45.7 PPG along with 536.8 total YPG which both ranked 128th in the nation. Home field has not been much of an advantage for this team as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games as an underdog. Additionally, Oregon State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. The Beavers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of August.

FINAL TAKE: While the Cowboys allowed 452.5 total YPG last year, they do return five starters from that group which is a good sign for improvement (or at least that this team is undervalued right now) — and that helps place Oklahoma State into an early-season historical angle that has been 69% effective since 1992. In games played in the first two weeks of the season, road teams who allowed at least 400 YPG last season but return at least five defensive starters have then covered the point spread in 61 of the last 88 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (159) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (154) minus the points versus the Massachusetts Minutemen (153). THE SITUATION: Rutgers (0-0) return thirteen starters from a team that finished just 1-11 last season. UMass (0-0) has eight starters returning from a team that was 4-8 last year playing as an independent.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SCARLET KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Chris Ash is on the hot seat in his fourth year in the program with a 7-29 record in his tenure. Rutgers has particularly struggled in Big Ten play where they are just 3-24 in the Ash era. It is very important for this team to get off to a good start which is why I expect a blowout tonight. The Scarlet Knights have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of August. There are reasons for optimism. The Rutgers defense made dramatic improvements midseason last year when Ash started working directly with the group. The former Ohio State defensive coordinator saw that group allow 26.5 PPG over their last six games which was almost a 10 PPG improvement over the 36.3 PPG they allowed in their first six games. There is also continuity on offense for the first time in a decade with coordinator John McNulty returning for his second season overseeing that group. While the Scarlet Knights have not named a starter, don’t be surprised if McLane Carter is tapped over redshirt sophomore Artur Sitkowski who struggled last year. Carter is a graduate transfer from Texas Tech who was brought in to offer competition to Sitkowski who was last in the nation with a 76.4 Passer Efficiency Rating. Rutgers has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing at home. UMass is an appetizing opponent for the Scarlet Knights as they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games played in the opening two weeks of the season. Former Arkansas State offensive coordinator Walt Bell makes his debut as a head coach tonight for this program that lost all eight of their games last year by double-digits. Bell is considered a good recruiter but it will take time for that strength to start paying dividends wit this program. I expect a significant decline in the offensive production of this team with three-year starter, Andrew Ford, finally graduating. Bell has yet to name a starter between Michael Curtis, Randall West, and junior college transfer Andrew Brito. Without Ford under center, it will be very difficult for UMass to continue to average 7.2 Yards-Per-Play on first down as they did last season which was 8th best in the FBS. On defense, is it good news or bad news that the Minutemen return only three starters from last years team that ranked 123rd in the FBS by allowing 484.8 total YPG? UMass surrendered at least 55 points in six games last season. The cupboard may be very bare for this independent program that lost seven of their top eleven tacklers from last year. The Minutemen registered only ten sacks last year while ranking 125th in the FBS by allowing 274.8 rushing YPG. UMass has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. The Minutemen have also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points.

FINAL TAKE: UMass has lost seven straight road openers since joining the FBS in 2012 — with the average losing margin being -26 PPG. Ash and this Scarlet Knights program needs a blowout victory to establish positive momentum so expect them to keep their foot on the accelerator all night. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (154) minus the points versus the Massachusetts Minutemen (153). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (143) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (144). THE SITUATION: Utah (0-0) looks to build off a 9-5 season that concluded on a down note with a 31-20 loss to Northwestern in the Holiday Bowl. BYU (0-0) finished 7-6 last season after defeating Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl by a 49-18 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: BYU returns seventeen starters from last year’s team along with twenty-six sophomores that played in games last season. But this team still lacks in experience and talent when compared to their in-state rival that is loaded with senior talent and future NFL players. The Cougars have lost eight straight Holy Wars against Utah. They lack a bell-cow running back with Squally Canada graduated from last year’s team. BYU will have a hard time running the football against a stout Utah defense that returns all four starters on the defensive line that finished 5th in the nation by allowing only 100.3 rushing YPG. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in the first month of the season. BYU has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in three straight home games as the underdog. Furthermore, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Utah is a sleeper team to make a run for the College Football Playoffs with fourteen returning starters. The Utes won their first nine games last year before enduring two tough injuries to QB Tyler Huntley and running back Zack Moss with both unable to play the final five games of the season. The Utah offense rattled off five straight games where they scored at least 40 points with a healthy Huntley and Moss. Head coach Kyle Whittingham has bolstered this offense by getting Andy Ludwig to return to the program to serve as their offensive coordinator. Utah averaged 36.9 PPG in their 2008 Sugar Bowl season with Ludwig coordinating the offense. The Utes defense is always quite good under Whittingham — they have held their opponents to under 20 PPG ten times in the past twenty-two seasons while surrounding more than 25.0 PPG just twice during that long span. Utah returns seven starters from a group that ranked 17th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 19.4 PPG — and they also ranked 14th in the nation by limiting opponents to only 315.6 total YPG. The Utes have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of August — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games against non-conference opponents. Additionally, Utah has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: BYU will be looking to avenge a 35-27 loss at Utah last November where they blew a 27-7 third-quarter lead. But the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 meetings with the Utes including their last four opportunities to host Utah. 10* CFB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Utah Utes (143) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (133) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (134). THE SITUATION: UCLA (0-0) looks to rebound from a 3-9 campaign last season. Cincinnati (0-0) enjoyed an 11-2 record last season that was capped by a 35-31 victory over Virginia Tech in the Military Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: UCLA started the season losing seven straight games last year under first-year head coach Chip Kelly. But a rotation of players loaded with freshmen and sophomores continued to improve with the Bruins winning three of their last five games including a 34-27 upset win over USC in the second-to-last game of their season. This should be a vastly improved team this year under a very good head coach in Kelly. The UCLA offense now has a clear direction with sophomore Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center who is a great fit for Kelly’s up-tempo spread offense schemes. The Bruins started last year with senior transfer from Michigan Wilton Speight as the starting quarterback who was not a great fit for Kelly’s typical offense since he lacked mobility as a pocket passer. UCLA also saw the emergence of senior running back Joshua Kelley who shined during conference play (including 289 yards against USC) en route to 1243 rushing yards. The Bruins offense averaged only 312 YPG in their first four games but generated 432 total YPG over their last eight games. With nine starters returning this season in the second-year of Kelly’s system, that level of productivity is probably the floor for this team. The defense should also be better after Kelly inherited a unit that allowed 36.6 PPG while ranking 122nd in the FBS by allowing 483.7 total YPG. Last year’s group allowed -2.5 fewer PPG along with 90 less rushing YPG — and with ten starters back which includes four sophomores who started as a freshman last season, this group should also make a big jump in their quality of play. UCLA has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 44 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. Cincinnati returns fourteen starters from last year’s team including redshirt sophomore quarterback Desmond Ridder who led the team last season. This was an offense that was perhaps too dependent on big plays last season — they averaged 3rd and long on 46.7% of their third downs last year. The biggest concern for the offense is the offensive line that returns only two starters. The defense returns seven starters from an outstanding group that was 11th in the nation by allowing just 303.5 total YPG. But the stout Bearcats defensive line from last season must replace all three of their starters including two outstanding leaders in defensive tackles Cortez Broughton and Marquise Copeland. Cincinnati has not retained much of a home-field advantage as of late as they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games at home. The Bearcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when favored by 3 points or less. Furthermore, Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games against teams outside the American Athletic Conference. And in their last 6 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the opening game between these two teams last season where Cincinnati pulled the upset on the road in a Rose Bowl by a 26-17 score despite being a two-touchdown underdog. Too much was being expected about that Kelly team in his first year with the Bruins program — but with an entire offseason to prepare for this rematch, look for UCLA to be primed to pull the upset in this revenge opportunity that can immediately launch this program into gear in Kelly’s second season. But take the points for a little road dog insurance. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Month with the UCLA Bruins (133) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (294) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (293). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (0-0) looks to build off an 8-6 campaign last year the culminated in a 31-14 loss to Louisiana Tech in the Hawai’i Bowl. Arizona (0-0) looks to improve on a 5-7 campaign last year where they failed to reach a bowl game in the first year under head coach Kevin Sumlin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats are expected to improve this season to at least be bowl eligible this year with fifteen starters back. The hope is that senior quarterback Khalil Tate will return to his 2017 form after an early ankle injury limited his ability to move the ball with his legs. Tate rushed for only 224 yards last year after gaining 1141 yards on the ground in 2017. But Tate regressed as a passer as well as he completed only 56% of his passes which was a 6.2% drop from his 62% completion percentage in his sophomore season. While some of that can be explained away from being stuck in the pocket dependent on his arm, it seems also true that Tate simply struggled to adjust to offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone’s system. Tate is a phenomenal athlete — but he is not the most cerebral of quarterbacks. The pressure will be on him to keep Arizona one step ahead of their opponents with a suspect defense that was 92nd in the nation last year by allowing 432.0 total YPG. Eight starters return for defensive coordinator Marcel Yates — but this is a small unit that still lacks an identity. Sumlin’s teams tend to underachieve on the road — the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games on the road. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when favored by more than a touchdown but no more than 14 points. This is expected to be a high-scoring contest — but the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set at 63 or higher. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games with the number set at 70 or higher. And in their last 11 games against teams outside the Pac-12, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these games. Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the Pac-12. They also have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games with the Total set at least at 70. Fourth-year head coach Nick Rolovich returns eighteen starters from last year’s group that far exceeded preseason expectations. Junior quarterback Cole McDonald is not being given nearly as much benefit of the doubt as Tate is for Arizona despite his dealing with injuries last season that impacted his productivity in the second half of the season. The Rainbow Warriors averaged 42.0 PPG in their first eight games last year — and McDonald is fully healthy again with eight other returning starters on offense. I expect a big day from the dual-threat QB against this suspect Wildcats defense that finished second-to-last in the Pac-12 in defensive pass efficiency. I also think the defense will take a step in the right direction under Corey Baton who is the first returning coordinator in nine years for this unit. Baton has nine returning starters back.

FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i typically starts the season strong as they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games in the first two weeks of a new season which includes five straight point spread covers in the month of August. This is a dangerous opening contest on the road for this Arizona team. Expect a close game. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (294) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (293). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (292) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (291). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-0) kicks off their season looking to improve on a 7-6 campaign last year that concluded with a 35-3 loss to Wisconsin in the Pinstripe Bowl. Florida (0-0) ended last year on a high note with a 41-15 blowout victory over Michigan in the Peach Bowl. This game is being played on a neutral field in Orlando, Florida at Camping World Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES PLUS THE POINTS: The Gators come off a strong final impression from last season with their high profile victory over Michigan on New Year’s Day — but that result probably inflates their value for this opening contest. The Wolverines saw a number of their best players sit out that game to protect their potential draft value including two future first-round NFL picks in Rashan Gary and Devin Bush. And, frankly, Michigan was simply uninspired to play that game after suffering a humiliating loss at Ohio State to close out their season and ruin their potential College Football playoff chances. The bowl committee then linked the Wolverines with a Florida team that they had crushed by a 41-7 score in the 2015 Citrus Bowl before soundly defeating them again to open the 2017 season in AT&T Stadium in Dallas by a 33-17 score. For head coach Dan Mullen, it was easy to motivate his team to pull the upset over Michigan as a measuring stick for the growth of the program in his first year. The Gators return five starters on offense led by junior quarterback Feleipe Franks — but the biggest question mark for that unit is an offensive line that replaces four multi-year starters who had combined for 141 starts in their tenure. Outside of right tackle Jack Delance who is a former four-star recruit who transferred to Gainesville, Mullen has a crop of former three-star recruits who were previously relegated to backup roles before this season. This is a very difficult opening assignment against a stout Miami defense that once again likely sports one of the top ten defensive lines in the country. The Florida defense lost three players to the NFL. While they return eight starters, that unit has holes to fill at linebacker. Miami brings a renewed sense of optimism this season under first-year head coach  Manny Diaz who was the defensive coordinator last season. Diaz accepted the head coaching job at Temple in the offseason before the Hurricanes accepted third-year head coach Mark Richt’s sudden “retirement” which compelled them to reach out to Diaz to wiggle out of his deal with the Owls and return to South Beach as the lead man. Diaz returns six starters from his defense that was 4th in the nation by holding opponents to just 278.9 total YPG. The offense was the bigger problem for the Hurricanes under Richt. Last year, Miami endured a four-game stretch where they failed to eclipse 21 points. Diaz addressed that issue by poaching Dan Enos who was Alabama’s quarterback coach last season (after first agreeing to join the offensive coaching staff at Michigan). The former Central Michigan head coach will install a “spread coast” offense that should be more dynamic. Diaz has also broken from the past by naming redshirt freshman Jarren Williams his starting quarterback. The dual-threat QB must have impressed in fall camp because he had stiff competition from returning starter in N’Kosi Perry and Ohio State transfer Tate Martell who was likely the incumbent quarterback in Columbus this year before the Buckeyes acquired Justin Fields in his transfer from Georgia. Williams has talent at his disposal at the skill positions that Enos’ new offense is designed to get into space.

FINAL TAKE: This Miami team suffered five net upset losses last season as they were a program that expected to find ways to lose games given the quarterback struggles of Perry and the graduated Malik Rosier. The slate is now clean — and this is a great opportunity to hit the ground running by pulling the upset against a high-profile in-state rival in the first meeting between these blue blood programs since 2013. The Gators benefitted from a +12 net turnover margin last year which was tied for 7th best in the nation. But on a neutral field in what will be very hot temperatures, their offensive line will be severely challenged by a tough defensive line that can rotate plenty of bodies. The Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams — and the underdog has also covered the point spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two rivals. 10* CFB Miami (FL)-Florida ESPN Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (292) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (291). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (151) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). THE SITUATION: Clemson (14-0) reached the National Championship Game two Saturdays ago with their dominant 30-3 win over Notre Dame as a 10.5-point favorite. Alabama (14-0) later matched that effort in the nightcap of the College Football Playoff Semifinals with their 45-34 victory against Oklahoma as a 14.5-point favorite. These two teams play for the National Championship in Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Back in August, my Best Bet to win the National Championship was on Clemson because I preferred the value in their future odds in the 4:1 to 5:1 range as more appetizing than Alabama’s odds in the 2:1 to 3:1 range. With this final pairing set, I have observed some pundits claim that there is little value in Clemson getting +4.5 to +6 or so points. Say what? The Tigers lost the first playoff meeting between these two teams in 2016 by a 45-40 score before upsetting the Tide by a 35-31 score in the second meeting the next year. Nick Saban then had a month to prepare for last year's third showdown which Bama won by a 24-6 score — and that game exposed the limitations of Clemson QB Kelly Bryant. It is with this fourth chapter in mind that Dabo Swinney made the difficult decision to bench an effective Bryant this season for freshman Trevor Lawrence. In hindsight, that move looks brilliant as it jumpstarted the Tigers offense who they closed the season ranked 4th in the nation by scoring 44.3 PPG while ranking above Bama at 3rd in the FBS by averaging 530.4 total YPG. Lawrence looked great in decimating a good Notre Dame defense by completing 27 of 39 passes for 327 yards while tossing three touchdown passes. He now faces a vulnerable Crimson Tide secondary that has surrendered 308 and 301 passing yards to Oklahoma and Georgia in their last two games. The Alabama defensive backfield was an initial concern for me this season considering that they replaced their top four starters along with their top six on the depth chart. It is more difficult to repeat as champions since it is challenging to muster the same level of energy and urgency as that which drove the team in their first triumph over the proverbial mountain. And I see red flags when defending champions start losing focus by getting chippy with trash talk and cheap shots — and that is exactly what happened to Alabama when they blew their point spread cover against the Sooners. Rather than tactics of intimidation, I fount it indicated a lack of confidence — or, perhaps it displayed chemistry issues for a group with national championship or bust expectations that has played all season with a divided locker room over their two quarterbacks? Something seems off — and now they will face a program that has reached their level over the last four seasons. That is not a good sign for the Crimson Tide who have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in January — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by less than 7 points. Clemson has notched 54 victories over the last four seasons while perhaps being more talented than the team that won the 2016 National Championship. Even without Dexter Lawrence with his PED suspension, this could be their best defense under star defensive coordinator Brent Venables. This group ranks above Bama in all major defensive categories for what that is worth. Clemson has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 bowl games — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 bowl games as the underdog while winning six of those games straight-up.

FINAL TAKE: I lean to Clemson to win this game outright given the lingering chemistry/cohesion issues with Alabama that reared its ugly head in the Semifinals along with the motivational edge this team has in revenge against a reigning champion that might be just a little less hungry this time around. But please take as many points as you can for some valuable insurance. 25* CFB National Championship A-List Special with Clemson Tigers (151) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (151) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). THE SITUATION: Clemson (14-0) reached the National Championship Game two Saturdays ago with their dominant 30-3 win over Notre Dame as a 10.5-point favorite. Alabama (14-0) later matched that effort in the nightcap of the College Football Playoff Semifinals with their 45-34 victory against Oklahoma as a 14.5-point favorite. These two teams play for the National Championship in Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both these teams have top-five scoring offenses and defenses — but I think both teams’ offenses seem a little of their defense and the urgency of this contest should eventually push the scoring Over the Total. Alabama is second in the nation by scoring 47.7 PPG while ranking fourth in the FBS by averaging 527.6 total YPG. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa competed 24 of 27 passes against the Sooners defense last week for 318 yards with four touchdown passes to lead the Crimson Tide to victory. The Over is 19-9-1 in Alabama’s last 29 games after they pass for at least 280 yards in their last game. This dynamic passing attack is a new wrinkle for a Nick Saban Crimson Tide team as they rank 6th in the nation by averaging 325.6 passing YPG. While Bama has sported elite wide receivers who have found great success in the NFL, Saban may have recruited his most diverse set of receiver targets for this season’s offense. They should exploit a vulnerable Clemson secondary that was torched for 430 passing yards by Texas A&M and 510 passing yards by South Carolina. Alabama has played 23 of their last 32 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field when favored — and they have played eleven of their last sixteen bowl games Over the Total including six of their last seven major bowl games played in January. The Tide have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams outside the SEC. Furthermore, Alabama has played 7 straight games Over the Total with the number set in the 56.5 to 63 points range. But the Crimson Tide displayed some weaknesses in their defense again Oklahoma by allowing 471 yards of offense. The Over is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Bama secondary was a question mark for this team entering the season with them losing their top six defensive backs from last year’s depth chart. Alabama allowed the Sooners to pass for 308 yards after Georgia passed for 301 yards in their last two games. Dabo Swinney made the move at quarterback early in the season to prepare freshman Trevor Lawrence for this potential rematch because of his strong arm. The 6’5 gunslinger completed 27 of 39 passes against the Fighting Irish for 327 yards with three touchdowns. He leads an offense that has averaged 567.0 total YPG over their last three games. Overall, Clemson ranks 4th in the nation by averaging 44.3 PPG while generating 530.4 total YPG which ranks 3rd in the FBS. The Tigers have only allowed 13 combined points over their last two games — but they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game while also playing 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not giving up more than 14 points in two straight games. Furthermore, the Tigers have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And in their last 5 games played in the month of January, the Tigers have played 4 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: This is the fourth straight season that these two teams have met in the College Football Playoffs. Alabama won the first game by a 45-40 score before Clemson won the rematch in January 2017 in a 35-31 contest. The Tide won in last year’s Semifinals in a defensive contest with Clemson using Kelly Bryant at quarterback in a 24-6 result. Expect the fourth chapter of this series to resemble the first two in it being a high-scoring shootout. 25* College Football Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (151) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (277) and the Georgia Bulldogs (278). THE SITUATION: Texas (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 1st with their 39-27 loss to Oklahoma as a 9.5-point underdog in the Big 12 Championship Game. Georgia (11-2) looks to bounce-back from their heartbreaking 35-28 loss to Alabama as an 11-point underdog in the SEC Championship Game. These two teams meet in a consolation prize in New Orleans in the Sugar Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Georgia generated 454 yards in that loss to the Crimson Tide — and they have seen the Under go 4-1-2 in their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Georgia plays outstanding defense as they rank 14th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 18.5 PPG and limiting them to only 311.2 total YPG. The Bulldogs’ pass defense is particularly stout as they hold their opponents to only 180.5 passing YPG which is 12th best in the country. Texas may struggle to move the football as they relied heavily on their passing attack. The Longhorns averaged 264.5 passing YPG which ranked 33rd in the nation — and they often went to the pass because they average only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry when running the football. Georgia has played three straight games Over the Total — but they have then played 7 straight games on the road Under the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. And in their last 10 bowl games, the Bulldogs have played 7 of these games Under the Total. Texas has played three straight games Under the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after playing an Under while they have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. The Longhorns have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while Texas surrendered 508 yards to the Sooners in that game, they have then played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Despite that game with Oklahoma, the Longhorns have played better on the defensive side of the football where they have held their last three opponents to just 22.0 PPG along with only 338.0 total YPG. This is a team that has played 31 of their last 42 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, Texas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog on a neutral field getting 7.5 to 14 points. The Longhorns have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are run-first oriented teams. With the Total in the high-50s approaching 60, expect a lower-scoring contest. 10* CFB New Year’s Day Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (277) and the Georgia Bulldogs (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (277) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (278). THE SITUATION: Texas (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 1st with their 39-27 loss to Oklahoma as a 9.5-point underdog in the Big 12 Championship Game. Georgia (11-2) looks to bounce-back from their heartbreaking 35-28 loss to Alabama as an 11-point underdog in the SEC Championship Game. These two teams meet in a consolation prize in New Orleans in the Sugar Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia fancies themselves as an elite program despite rarely winning a big game since Hershel Walker led them to a national championship just before Ronald Reagan took office as President of the United States. The Bulldogs feel they were robbed out of being one of the top four teams in the country tapped to play in the College Football Playoffs despite blowing a 28-14 lead to the Crimson Tide and despite a 20-point loss to LSU (and playing a weakling non-conference schedule). Georgia are worse than blue bloods because they think they have earned the privileges of the elite without putting in any of the work to garner requisite achievements. If only the Bulldogs could rely on nepotism to get into the playoffs! This is all to say that I expect Georgia to be over-confident in this matchup as they will likely expect the Longhorns to faint at the sight of them taking the field. Star cornerback DeAndre Baker might have set the tone for this team when he decided to bypass this game to stay healthy for the upcoming NFL draft. His absence does leave the Bulldogs secondary vulnerable to Texas’ pair of big wide receivers in Collin Johnson (6’6) and Jordan Humphrey (6’4) who combined to accumulate 1964 receiving yards with 16 combined touchdowns. Georgia also displayed some issues in their run defense against the better teams on their schedule as they allowed Alabama, Auburn, and LSU to rush for over 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The Bulldogs allowed 25.2 PPG when away from home which is almost a touchdown more than their season average. Georgia got into some high-scoring affairs down the stretch of the season with at least 63 combined points scored in each of their last three games. That is not exactly the style of play that Kirby Smart likes to nurture as a defensive-minded head coach — and the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after playing at least three straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. Quarterback Jake Fromm completed 25 of 39 passes for 301 yards in their loss to Alabama — and Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Texas is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. Their sophomore QB Sam Ehlinger played well in defeat by completing 23 of 36 passes for 349 yards while adding another 42 rushing yards and accounting for four overall touchdowns in their loss to the Sooners. The Longhorns are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Ehlinger has done a very good job of protecting the football as he threw 25 TD passes while tossing only five interceptions with eleven games this season where he did not throw an interception. But Texas did surrender 379 passing yards to Oklahoma in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 15 of the last 19 games after allowing at least 375 passing yards in their last game. This Texas defense has steadily improved as they held their last three opponents to just 338.0 total YPG. The Longhorns play well in these big games under head coach Tom Herman as they are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on a neutral field with the Total set in the 56.5 to 62 point range. Furthermore, Texas has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and this includes them covering the point spread in four of their last five games played on a neutral field as the dog.

FINAL TAKE: Herman has certainly thrived in these underdog situations in his head coaching tenure at Houston and now in Austin, Texas. His teams are 12-3 ATS in their fifteen games as an underdog with Herman leading his team to the upset victory in ten of these contests. Texas certainly has more to prove in this game with a high-profile win in this bowl game doing wonders for their psyche and recruiting profile moving forward — while Georgia still complains that they would have beaten Notre Dame and Oklahoma last Saturday. Expect a close game. 25* College Football Bowl Game of the Year with the Texas Longhorns (277) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (275) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (276). THE SITUATION: Washington (10-3) has won four straight games after they defeated Utah by a 10-3 score back on November 30th in the Pac-12 Championship Game where they were 4.5-point favorites. Ohio State (12-1) has won five straight games after they defeated Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 1st by a 45-24 score as a 16.5-point favorite. These two teams meet in Pasadena in the Rose Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Washington held the Utes to just a 188 yards of offense in that contest — and they have played  8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Huskies are one of the best defensive teams in the nation as they hold their opponents to just 15.4 PPG which is 4th best in the nation while also holding these foes to only 301.8 total YPG which is 10th best in the country. This defense travels as they only allow 16.0 PPG when on the road along with just 307.0 total YPG. And in their last three contests, Washington is allowing only 13.7 PPG along with just 262.7 total YPG. But the Huskies offense has held them back this season — they are scoring only 20.4 PPG when away from home while averaging just 381.0 total YPG which is over 30 YPG less than their season average. Washington has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when facing a team with a winning record. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral field, the Huskies have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Ohio State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Buckeyes generated 525 yards of offense against the Wildcats’ defense — but they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. Many bettors will take the Over based on the explosiveness of the Ohio State offense that ranks second in the nation by averaging 548.8 total YPG. The 62 points they put on Michigan was certainly impressive. But the Wolverines suffered some key injuries to a few of the best players on their defense in that game — and the unwillingness of their defensive coordinator to not get out of man coverage facilitated the Buckeyes’ ability to continually burn the Michigan secondary. Washington has perhaps the best secondary in the country and plays a base nickel scheme which should mitigate the advantages Ohio State enjoyed in their big rivalry game. The Buckeyes defense underperformed all season as well — the talent that team has on defense is much better than the 25.7 PPG they allowed suggests. Ohio State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after their bye week. The Buckeyes have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio State’s defense should play better with the extra weeks of preparation against a specific offense. Washington allowed more than 24 points only once this season. 20* CFB Washington-Ohio State ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (275) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (275) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (276). THE SITUATION: Washington (10-3) has won four straight games after they defeated Utah by a 10-3 score back on November 30th in the Pac-12 Championship Game where they were 4.5-point favorites. Ohio State (12-1) has won five straight games after they defeated Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 1st by a 45-24 score as a 16.5-point favorite. These two teams meet in Pasadena in the Rose Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Washington has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a victory by no more than a touchdown against a Pac-12 rival. The Huskies dominated the Utes in that game by limiting them to just 188 yards of offense while out-gaining them by +118 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after out-gaining their last opponent by +125 or more yards. The Huskies are one of the best defensive teams in the nation as they hold their opponents to just 15.4 PPG which is 4th best in the nation while also holding these foes to only 301.8 total YPG which is 10th best in the country. This defense travels as they only allow 16.0 PPG when on the road along with just 307.0 total YPG. And in their last three contests, Washington is allowing only 13.7 PPG along with just 262.7 total YPG. But the Huskies offense has held them back this season — they are scoring only 20.4 PPG when away from home while averaging just 381.0 total YPG which is over 30 YPG less than their season average. Washington entered the year with high expectations — they were my Top Underlay Bet regarding future wagers to win the National Championship. Their opening game 5-point loss in Atlanta to Auburn placed those plays aspirations in jeopardy right away — but this is still a team that was three plays away from being undefeated this season with their other two losses occurring by just 3 and 2 points. Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win by at least three touchdowns against a Big Ten rival. Furthermore, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after winning at least five games in a row. And while Ohio State has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the spread in three of their last four. The Buckeyes have an explosive offense but the defense has underachieved all season by allowing 400.3 total YPG which ranks 68th in the nation. It was even worse away from the Horseshoe for this team as they surrendered 465.5 total YPG when playing on the road. Too often, the four and five-star players did not respond to coaching by committing fundamental blunders when it comes to assignment football. Ohio State gave up 38.0 PPG over their last three games. The Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on grass — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: This will be Urban Meyer’s last game coaching the Buckeyes with him retiring after this game. While there are certainly sentiments inside the program that would love to have him go out a winner, wasn’t there a similar motivation to redeem Meyer after the scandals in the fall that triggered his three-game suspension? I find that analysis overplayed and likely accounted for in the point spread where they are laying around 7 points. This game presents the Washington football team the opportunity to earn another signature win after losses to Alabama in the College Playoff two years ago before their loss to Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl last season and their opening week loss to Auburn this year. 10* CFB Washington-Ohio State ESPN Special with the Washington Huskies (275) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (273) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (274). THE SITUATION: LSU (9-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in their final regular season game with their 74-72 loss in overtime at Texas A&M as a 3-point underdog back on November 24th. Central Florida (12-0) won the American Athletic Conference Championship Game to remain unbeaten over the last two seasons with their 56-41 win over Memphis as a 1-point favorite on December 1st. These two teams meet in Phoenix for the Fiesta Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Central Florida has once again feasted on non-Power Five Conference competition this season. While the Knights put up Top-Five offensive numbers this season, they only faced one team ranked in the top-25 statistical defenses in the nation — and that was a Cincinnati team that surrendered 31 points to a Virginia Tech team that few would describe as an offensive dynamo this season. On paper, the Knights have a strong defense that ranked 25th in the nation by allowing only 21.3 PPG. But their defense also ranked 83rd in the FBS by allowing 423.6 total YPG. The huge weakness of this UCF defense is their run defense as they ranked 117th in the nation by allowing their opponents to average 227.4 rushing YPG. Lazy observers might attribute that terrible number on them playing the strong rushing attack of Memphis twice who gashed them for 280 and then 401 yards in their two meetings. OK … and I suppose we get to throw out the 374 rushing yards Navy gouged them for because they run the run-dominant spread triple option. Well, what is the excuse for the 320 rushing yards Florida Atlantic racked up against them? Or the 252 rushing yards accumulated by Cincinnati? Or the 226 rushing yards that Temple produced? Or the 220 yards that the offensive juggernaut of UConn managed to compile? Or South Florida’s 196 rushing yards? LSU’s running back Nick Brossette should have a big day against the Knights’ defensive line that was run over by the smaller offensive line and less talented tailbacks. The reason that UCF was able to survive from their bend but not break defense was in large part due to some fortunate bounces with turnovers as they are 3rd in the nation by a +1.17 net turnover margin. Unfortunately for the Knights, outlier turnovers margins like that are rarely sustainable — and they do not face a friendly competitor this afternoon when it comes to giving the ball away. LSU averages 0.9 turnovers per game this season — and UCF has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against opponents who do not turn the ball over more than 1.0 times per game. On offense, Knights’ freshman quarterback, Darriel Mack, accounted well for himself to win the AAC Championship by completing 19 of 27 passes for 348 yards while adding another 59 yards on the ground. But facing the Memphis Tigers defense is not nearly the same as facing the LSU Tigers defense with their NFL talent they put on the field. Expect the freshman to struggle against the advanced schemes LSU will throw at the rookie in just his second start of the season after he took over for the injured McKenzie Milton. UCF has averaged 7.76 and 6.80 Yards-Per-Play over their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. LSU should be playing with a chip on their shoulder after their infuriating seven overtime loss to Texas A&M to end their season. They now face the intriguing fashion of attempting to expose the weaknesses of this upstart Group of Five Conference opponent has not lost a game in two seasons. Auburn appeared to be unmotivated by this challenge last season in the Peach Bowl as they were upset by 34-27 score. If that does not get the Tigers’ attention, I think they have the perfect head coach for this situation in Ed Orgeron who is a motivator and well-liked by his players — and his humble background should ensure he does not take this UCF team lightly. LSU is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last three games, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Furthermore, LSU has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games played on grass. And in their last 6 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points, the Tigers have covered the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: LSU hammered Georgia by 20 points — so they have the talent still that can hang with the very best teams in College Football. Central Florida’s twenty-five game winning streak has seen more than its share of good bounces and beats. I think the luck finally runs out against an LSU team coached by an individual who will not let them make the mistakes Auburn did last year. 10* CFB LSU-Central Florida ESPN Special with the LSU Tigers (273) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (271) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (272). Kentucky (9-3) has won two straight games with their 56-10 victory at Louisville as a 17-point favorite to close out their regular season back on November 24th. Penn State (9-3) has won three straight games with their 38-3 victory against Maryland back on November 24th as a 12-point favorite. These two teams meet in Orlando for the Citrus Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games away from home after a game where they did not allow more than 6 points. And while the Nittany Lions have not allowed more than 269 total yards in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in three straight games. Penn State has a 4-1 record on the road this year but they are only out-gaining these opponents by +0.8 net YPG. The Nittany Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games played on a neutral field with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. This team has also failed to cover the point spread in their last 4 meetings with a team from the SEC. Run defense is an area of concern for this team as they allowed their opponents to rush for 168.4 rushing YPG. Enter running back Benny Snell and this Kentucky offense that ranked 35th in the nation by averaging 201.3 rushing YPG. The Wildcats gobbled 300 rushing yards in their victory over the Cardinals in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Kentucky has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 17 points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Wildcats dominated that game with Louisville as they out-gained them by +296 net yards which is a good sign for them now as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after out-gaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. This Kentucky team plays outstanding defense as they ranked 7th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 16.3 PPG — and they also ranked 21st in the FBS by allowing only 332.2 total YPG. Defense travels — and the Wildcats outscored their five opponents on the road by +7.0 PPG. This stout defense should keep them in this game as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: Kentucky has lost two bowl games in a row in the last two seasons after losing a heartbreaker to Northwestern by a 24-23 score in last year’s Music City Bowl. With star linebacker Josh Allen shunning the en vogue trend of NFL-caliber players skipping this game to “prepare” for the NFL draft, look for his teammates to rally around him as they look to finally win a bowl game in the six-year tenure of head coach Mike Stoops. 10* CFB Kentucky-Penn State ABC-TV Special with the Kentucky Wildcats (271) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the LSU Tigers (273) and the Central Florida Knights (274). THE SITUATION: LSU (9-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in their final regular season game with their 74-72 loss in overtime at Texas A&M as a 3-point underdog back on November 24th. Central Florida (12-0) won the American Athletic Conference Championship Game to remain unbeaten over the last two seasons with their 56-41 win over Memphis as a 1-point favorite on December 1st. These two teams meet in Phoenix for the Fiesta Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: LSU has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Under is 5-2-2 in the Tigers’ last 9 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 18 of their last 25 road games after a game where at least a combined 60 points were scored. The LSU defense was once again one of the best units in the nation as they ranked 24th in the nation by allowing only 20.9 PPG and they also ranked 29th in the FBS by giving up just 346.1 total YPG. Even with that multiple overtime game against the Aggies, the Tigers only allowed 311.7 total YPG over their last three games. Their secondary will be without their two starting cornerbacks with Greedy Williams taking the game off to prepare for the NFL draft and Kristian Fulton dealing with a foot injury. But LSU always has talent at the cornerback position — and the Tigers coaching staff has had a month to develop the next players up on the depth chart. LSU has played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing with at least two weeks between games. The Tigers outstanding defensive line will help alleviate some of the pressure that the Knights wide receivers will offer to their secondary. LSU has played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total as the favorite. The Tigers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 5 of their last 7 bowl games Under the Total. Central Florida has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Knights have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 40 points — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 50 points. And while UCF generated a whopping 698 yards of offense against the Memphis defense, they have then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. But the Knights surrendered 583 yards to the Memphis offense with 401 yards being on the ground. UCF has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after giving up at least 275 rushing yards in their last contest. The Knights have had a bend but not break defense that has allowed only 21.3 PPG which is 25th best in the nation. UCF has covered the point spread in five of their last six games — but they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Knights’ freshman quarterback, Darriel Mack, accounted well for himself to win the AAC Championship by completing 19 of 27 passes for 348 yards while adding another 59 yards on the ground. But facing the Memphis Tigers defense is not nearly the same as facing the LSU Tigers defense with their NFL talent they put on the field. Expect the freshman to struggle against the advanced schemes LSU will throw at the rookie in just his second start of the season after he took over for the injured McKenzie Milton. The big question for this game is how this Group of Five team will handle the significant step up in competition against an elite Power-Five Conference opponent. This year’s UCF team faced only one top-25 statistical defense in Cincinnati (who just surrendered 31 points to a mediocre Virginia Tech offense). Tellingly, the Knights have seen the Under go 8-0-1 in their last 9 games against fellow SEC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: LSU will commit to running the football to control the line of scrimmage and keep the explosive UCF offense off the field. That dynamic should help contribute to this being a lower-scoring game. 25* CFB New Year’s Six Bowl Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the LSU Tigers (273) and the Central Florida Knights (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (269) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (270). Iowa (8-4) has won two straight games with their 31-28 win over Nebraska to close out their regular season back on November 23rd as a 7.5-point favorite. Mississippi State (8-4) has won two games in a row as well with their 35-3 win at Ole Miss back on November 22nd as a 12.5-point favorite. These two teams meet in Tampa Bay in the Outback Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Mississippi State preceded their big rivalry game win over the Rebels in the Egg Bowl with a 52-6 win over Arkansas. But the Bulldogs may be due for a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning two straight games by double-digits against conference rivals. Mississippi State has won four of their last five games while covering the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Bulldogs are led by their defense that is tops in the nation by allowing only 12.0 PPG and just 268.4 total YPG. They have held their last three opponents to only 237.7 YPG — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after holding their last three opponents to no better than 250 YPG. Furthermore, while Mississippi State has allowed just a field goal in the first-half of two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games on the road after not allowing more than 7 first-half points in two straight games. The problem for this Bulldogs team is that when they are playing away from home, they are scoring only 15.2 PPG while averaging just 317.6 total YPG. Their offense is too one-dimensional as they are averaging just 175.6 passing YPG behind senior quarterback Nick Fitzgerald which ranks 110th in the nation. Mississippi State has committed no more than one turnover in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight games. Additionally, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 major bowl games played in January — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field when the favorite. Iowa has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a narrow win at home by 3 points or less. And while the Hawkeyes have not covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. This Iowa team has an outstanding defense themselves that ran 11th in the nation by allowing just 17.4 PPG while also ranking 7th in the FBS by giving up only 289.7 total YPG. Their defensive line has racked up an impressive 28.5 combined sacks. This strong defense helps them play well on the road — the Hawkeyes are outscoring teams by +19.6 PPG when playing away from Iowa City while out-gaining these opponents by +83.0 net YPG. Iowa has also outscored their last three opponents by +20.7 PPG while out-gaining them by +71.7 net YPG. Junior QB Nate Stanley will not have the services of his star tight end Noah Gant who is skipping this game to stay healthy for the NFL draft — but he still has Mackey Award winner T.J. Hockenson as another tight end target which is not too shabby. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Big Ten.

FINAL TAKE: The opportunity to take an underdog getting around 7 points in an expected low-adoring game offers us nice value. Mississippi State’s lack of a potent passing attack should help head coach Kirk Ferentz oversee a defensive scheme that will limit the Bulldogs’ scoring chances which will keep the Hawkeyes in this game. 20* CFB New Year’s Day Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Iowa Hawkeyes (269) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (267) and the Texas A&M Aggies (268). NC State (9-3) has won three straight games with their 58-3 win over East Carolina back on December 1st as a 24.5-point favorite. Texas A&M (8-4) has also won three straight games with their 74-72 win in multiple overtimes against LSU as a 3-point favorite back on November 24th. These two teams meet in Jacksonville for the Taxslayer Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: NC State has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Led by senior quarterback Ryan Finley, the Wolfpack offense scores 35.6 PPG while averaging 471.3 total YPG — those numbers rank 20th and 15th best in the nation. Over their last three games, this offense was clicking on all cylinders by scoring 48.0 PPG while averaging 526.7 total YPG. Finley will be without wide receiver Kelvin Harmon who is skipping this game to avoid injury prior to the NFL draft but he still has a host of other weapons including a 1000-yard receiver in Jakobi Meyers. He will be using this game to build his own NFL draft resume — and he should feast off an Aggies secondary that ranked 111th in the nation by allowing 262.7 passing YPG. Opposing quarterbacks completed 61% of their passes against the Texas A&M defense while throwing 25 touchdown passes to just 5 interceptions. But the Wolfpack defense will likely struggle to slow down the Aggies’ offense. In their five games on the road, NC State surrendered 30.0 PPG while allowing those opponents to average 439.2 total YPG. Their defense will be without their best player and top tackler in linebacker Germaine Pratt who is also bypassing this game for NFL prep. This is a defense that was torched by opposing quarterbacks as they ranked 120th in the nation by allowing 271.2 passing YPG. The Over is 11-4-1 in the Wolfpack’s last 16 games against non-conference opponents. NC State has also played 6 straight bowl games Over the Total — and they have played 8 straight games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field. The Wolfpack have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing as an underdog on a neutral field. Texas A&M has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Aggies have also played 4 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing at least 42 points in their last game. Texas A&M has their own dynamic quarterback in Kellen Mond who threw 23 touchdown passes while leading an offense that scored 34.7 PPG (26th in the nation) and averaged 465.8 total YPG (19th in the FBS). The Aggies have played 4 of their last 5 bowl games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: NC State and Texas A&M have run defense that rank 13th and 2nd in the nation respectively — so don’t be surprised if the running games are abandoned for more passing. More passing means more possessions which helps our Over play. This shapes up to be a wild high-scoring affair. 25* CFB Bailout Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (267) and the Texas A&M Aggies (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (261) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (262). Michigan State (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak to close out their regular season on November 24th with their 14-10 win over Rutgers as a 24.5-point favorite. Oregon (8-4) has won three of their last four games with their 55-15 win at Oregon State on November 23rd as an 18-point favorite. These two teams meeting Santa Clara’s Levi Stadium for the newly named Redox Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: Michigan State had sky-high expectations this season with nineteen starters back from a team that went 10-3 last season which culminated in a 42-17 drubbing of a Washington State team in the Holiday Bowl who then defeated these Ducks this season by double-digits. Injuries on offense held Sparty back this year with quarterback Brian Lewerke and running back L.J. Scott both battling injuries all season. Both players have had five weeks to heel and both should as healthy as they have been in months for this bowl game as the Spartans look to end their season on a high note. There is little wrong with the Michigan State defense that ranked 12th in the nation by allowing just 18.0 PPG while also ranking 14th in the FBS by allowing their opponents to average just 311.5 total YPG. Sparty was also 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to -106 YPG below their season offensive average. They limited Ohio State to just 347 yards of offense — so they should be able to contain Justin Herbert and this Ducks’ offense with the few weeks of preparation. Michigan State has allowed only four offensive touchdowns in their last five games. After shutting down the Buckeyes offense, the Spartans then limited Nebraska to 248 yards of offense before allowing Rutgers to gain a mere 217 yards in their final regular season game. Michigan State is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in two straight games. This defense travels as well as they only allowed 13.2 PPG in their five games away from East Lansing while limiting those opponents to just 294.0 YPG. The Spartans out-gained their five opponents on the road by +64.0 net YPG. Head coach Mark Dantoni should have his team ready to play this game as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 bowl games — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games when played on a neutral field. Oregon has been reliably inconsistent as of late. The Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 11 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, Oregon is just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread victory. And while the Ducks offense generated 510 yards against Beavers, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring at least 50 points in their last contest. This Oregon team was riding high after they pulled off an upset win over Washington — but then they fell to earth with double-digit losses to Washington State and Arizona while allowing an offensively-challenged Utah team score 32 points against them. In their five games away from home, the Ducks were out-gained by -24.8 net YPG. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Pac-12. The Ducks have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played on a neutral field when favored by no more than 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan State is a very physical team with five weeks to rest up and heal for this game. The team with the closest profile to their style of play that Oregon played was Stanford — and the Cardinal defeated the Ducks by a 38-31 score. Dantoni relishes the underdog role for his Spartans. His teams have covered the point spread in their last five bowl games as the dog with Dantoni leading his team to the straight-up upset win in those last four bowl contests. Expect another upset — but take the points for some valuable insurance. 25* CFB Bowl Game of the Month with the Michigan State Spartans (261) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (260). Pittsburgh (7-6) has lost two straight games after their 42-10 loss to Clemson as a 27-point underdog on December 1st in the ACC Championship Game. Stanford (8-4) has won three straight games with their 23-13 win at California on December 1st as a 3-point favorite. These two teams meet in El Paso, Texas in the Sun Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh had won four straight games to put themselves in position to play for the ACC Championship before a 21-point loss at Miami preceded their blowout loss to the Tigers. Head coach Pat Narduzzi should have his team ready to play in this game as his team has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games are a loss by at least 20 points. Furthermore, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their last game. Quarterback Kenny Pickett suffered an embarrassing game against the outstanding Clemson defense as he completed only 4 of 16 passes for a mere 8 yards. That eye-popping stat line should have served as motivation for Pickett to work even harder in bowl practices for this game. Pitt has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to pass for at least 75 yards in their last game. While the play of Narduzzi’s defense remains a disappointment given the reputation he established as the defensive coordinator at Michigan State, the young talent on that unit should have benefitted from the extra weeks of bowl preparation. Pittsburgh saw their nine-year bowl streak snapped last year so this group should have something to prove in this game. Stanford has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win on the road — and they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last games after a point spread win. Frankly, the Cardinal was fortunate to pull off that final win over the Golden Bears as they were out-gained by -23 net yards. A +2 net turnover margin helped to make up that difference in yardage — but Stanford has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a game where they had a +2 or better turnover margin. This is not a typical team for head coach David Shaw in his eighth year with the program. This Cardinal group ranked 122nd in the FBS by averaging just 108.3 rushing YPG. Superstar running back Bryce Love battled injuries all season — and he has decided to skip this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Stanford is very vulnerable on pass defense as they allowed 274.7 passing YPG which ranked 121st in the FBS. And when this team played away from Palo Alto, the Cardinal were out-gained by -90.3 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Motivation has to be questioned for this underachieving Stanford team as they will be playing their third straight bowl game in a second-tier contest hosted in the State of Texas. This is the Cardinal’s second appearance at the Sun Bowl in the last three years as well. Pitt is motivated to redeem themselves from two bad losses to end the season — and the opportunity to knock off a blue-blood like Stanford has to be appealing. Expect a close game. 10* CFB Pittsburgh-Stanford CBS-TV Special with the Pittsburgh Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (257) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (258). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (6-6) became bowl eligible by winning their last two games of the season culminating in their 41-20 blowout win over Marshall on December 1st as a 3.5-point favorite. Cincinnati (10-2) has won four of their last five games with their 56-6 blowout win over East Carolina as a 15.5-point favorite. These two teams meet in Annapolis in the Military Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Virginia Tech ended the season with just twelve starters back from last year’s 9-4 season. Three-fourths of the incoming roster was just freshman and sophomores — so depth was very thin. Unfortunately for the Hokies, this team was hit hard with injuries including three starters on defense and their incumbent starting quarterback all being lost for the season. A handful of other contributors were also dismissed by third-year head coach Justin Fuente. This team could have folded up the tent and gone home to end their season after upsetting a solid Virginia team at the end of November — but this team played hard with the opportunity to play the Thundering Herd in a rescheduled game from earlier in the season and they earned the opportunity to play in this game. I think the extra week of bowl preparation will be of enormous benefit for Fuente defensive coordinator Bud Foster further develop this young team with the benefit of tailoring their practices to a specific opponent in the Bearcats. So, throw out the Hokies underwhelming offensive and defensive numbers for this one. Virginia Tech disappointed with six straight point spread losers before covering the point spread in their final two games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after failing to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Virginia Tech is seeing the continued development of their 6’4 junior quarterback Ryan Willis who completed 18 of 26 passes for 312 with four touchdown passes against Marshall. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while Virginia Tech has played their last two games Over the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing two straight Overs. Furthermore, the Hokies have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the month of December which is good evidence of the continued development this coaching staff sees in their players. Cincinnati has enjoyed a surprising 10-win season after only winning eight of their previous twenty-four games over the last two seasons. They fit the blueprint of a team happy to reach a bowl game for the first time in three seasons and may let up a bit when reading that they are nearly a touchdown favorite in this game. As it is, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win at home against an American Athletic Conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win over a conference rival. Cincinnati has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 37 points in their last game. The Bearcats average 34.9 PPG and 458.2 total YPG this season which is 25th and 24th in the nation respectively — but those numbers plummeted in their six games away from home to just 25.3 PPG and 393.8 total YPG marks. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a neutral field as a favorite. Additionally, Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 bowl games — and they are just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the month of December. Lastly, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech certainly played the more difficult schedule this season with the ACC being a better conference than the American Athletic Conference. Expect the Hokies to be an improved team this afternoon after a month of additional practice — they should (at least) keep this game close. 10* CFB Virginia Tech-Cincinnati ESPN Special with the Virginia Tech Hokies (257) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (254) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (253). Alabama (13-0) won the SEC Championship Game back on December 1st with their 35-28 win over Georgia as an 11-point favorite. Oklahoma (12-1) won the Big 12 Championship Game with their 39-27 win versus Texas as a 9.5-point favorite. These two teams meeting in Miami, Florida in the Orange Bowl for the second Semifinals showdown in the College Football Playoff.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: The Sooners were playing with revenge on their minds when facing the Longhorns to begin this month — but I suspect they get exposed tonight for their subpar play on defense. Oklahoma allows 32.4 PPG which is 96th in the nation along with 448.1 total YPG which is 108th in the nation. Over their last three games, the team has not improved as they have surrendered 41.0 PPG along with an incredible 555.0 total YPG. In their six games on the road this year, the Sooners have given up 472.8 YPG. The team’s lack of competent safeties has consistently burned them all season — they rank 129th in the nation by giving up 291.4 passing YPG. This team allowed their opponents to average +31 YPG above their season average. These are very ominous signs when considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The theory for Oklahoma backers is that they will simply outscore Bama in this game. Heisman Trophy winner Kyle Murray led the nation’s number one statistical offense in the nation — and he passed for 379 yards in their win over Texas. But the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 325 yards in their last game. Murray may not have his best target available — or at full strength — given the foot injury to Marquise Brown that he suffered in the Big 12 Championship that did not look very encouraging at the time. These circumstances are not encouraging given that this is a football team that has is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Oklahoma has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 bowl games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games played on a neutral field. Furthermore, the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against SEC opponents. Alabama played their closest game of the season in their comeback win over the Bulldogs. Head coach Nick Saban typically gets his team to respond with a strong effort after a game where he can show them the bad game tape. The Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road game after a narrow victory of 7 points or less against a conference rival. The theory that Oklahoma will simply outscore Bama has to account for the fact that the Tide are the second-best scoring team in the nation by putting up 47.9 PPG — and they rank 5th in the nation by averaging 527.6 total YPG. When Alabama plays outside Tuscaloosa, they see their offensive production rise to them scoring 50.0 PPG while averaging 533.0 total YPG. This team averaged +155 YPG more than what their opponents allowed on average this season which was the third-best mark in the nation. The Crimson Tide did allow 454 yards against Georgia — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Alabama did take a step back on defense this season after losing eight starters along with their top six defensive backs from last year’s National Championship team. But this remains a unit loaded with blue-chippers (as opposed to Oklahoma) who should benefit from the extra week of bowl practices. The Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Alabama has suspended a few players — but they have the depth on the offensive line to sustain those losses for this game. Tua Tagovailoa seems to be 80-85% with his foot injury that he suffered against Georgia. I would worry about these issues more if they were playing a better defensive unit. Jaylen Hurts proved in the SEC Championship Game that he is willing and able to provide this team a spark if Tagovailoa is not effective. Ultimately, I think the Alabama defense will be able to generate at least some defensive stops — and I don’t think Oklahoma can slow down the Tide’s powerful offense. 25* CFB Playoff Game of the Year with the Alabama Crimson Tide (254) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (253). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma Sooners (253) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (254). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (12-0) closed out their perfect regular season with their 24-17 win at USC as a 13.5-point favorite back on November 24th. Clemson (13-0) won the ACC Championship Game on December 1st with their 42-10 win against Pittsburgh as a 27-point favorite. These two teams meet in Dallas’ AT&T Stadium in the Cotton Bowl which serves as a proxy for the College Football Semifinals.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Sooners have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Oklahoma generated 508 yards in that contest with the Longhorns — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 405 yards in their last contest. The Sooners led the nation by scoring 49.5 PPG while also leading the FBS with an average of 577.9 total YPG. They also led the country by averaging +196 YPG above their opponent’s defensive YPG average this season. QB Kyle Murray fits the prototype of the quarterback that has given Nick Saban’s defense fits over the years with his dual-threat capabilities. He passed for over 4000 yards while averaging 11.9 Yards-Per-Passing attempt. The Heisman Trophy winner rushed for 943 yards with 642 of those yards accounted for from designed running plays where he averaged 7.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Texas A&M’s QB Kellen Mond rushed for 129 yards against the Bama defense with 92 of those yards coming from designed plays earlier this season. But the bigger defensive concerns below to the Sooners. Oklahoma allows 32.4 PPG which is 96th in the nation along with 448.1 total YPG which is 108th in the nation. Over their last three games, the team has not improved as they have surrendered 41.0 PPG along with an incredible 555.0 total YPG. In their six games on the road this year, the Sooners have given up 472.8 YPG. The team’s lack of competent safeties has consistently burned them all season — they rank 129th in the nation by giving up 291.4 passing YPG. This team allowed their opponents to average +31 YPG above their season average. Oklahoma has paled 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams outside the Big 12. Alabama’s defense looked vulnerable against a Georgia team that generated 454 yards against them. The Crimson Tide have seen the Over go 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Tide are the second-best scoring team in the nation by putting up 47.9 PPG — and they rank 5th in the nation by averaging 527.6 total YPG. When Alabama plays outside Tuscaloosa, they see their offensive production rise to them scoring 50.0 PPG while averaging 533.0 total YPG. This team averaged +155 YPG more than what their opponents allowed on average this season which was the third-best mark in the nation. The Crimson Tide have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams outside the SEC. Alabama has also played 11 of their last 15 bowl games Over the Total — and they have seen the Over go 20-5-2 in their last 27 games played on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: The Total set is at Big 12 level heights in the high-70s which is not uncommon for Oklahoma games. Alabama has a better offense than what the Sooners have seen all season. The pressure to continue scoring creates a self-fulfilling prophecy — expect a wild high-scoring game. 10* CFB Oklahoma-Alabama ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma Sooners (253) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (255) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (256). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (12-0) closed out their perfect regular season with their 24-17 win at USC as a 13.5-point favorite back on November 24th. Clemson (13-0) won the ACC Championship Game on December 1st with their 42-10 win against Pittsburgh as a 27-point favorite. These two teams meet in Dallas’ AT&T Stadium in the Cotton Bowl which serves as a proxy for the College Football Semifinals.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH PLUS THE POINTS: Notre Dame has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. This is a team that raised their level of play on offense when head coach Brian Kelly elevated sophomore Ian Book to be his starting quarterback as he completed 70% of his passes while averaging 8.84 Yards-Per-Passing Attempt to give the offense a legitimate deep threat. Clemson has been vulnerable against vertical passing attacks — they have allowed Texas A&M to pass for 430 yards against them along with South Carolin to pass for 510 yards. The Irish have the size in the wide receiving corps with 6’4 Miles Boykin, 6’4 Chase Claypool and tight end Alize Mack all have size advantages over a smaller Clemson secondary. The Irish have averaged at 462 Yards-Per-Game in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in three straight games. Notre Dame is ab outstanding defensive team that ranked 10th in the nation by allowing only 17.3 PPG — and they also ranked 20th in the FBS by giving up just 331.5 total YPG. This team has not allowed an opponent to score more than 27 points all season. The key to their efforts has been to minimize big plays — they gave up only five plays that accounted for more than 40 yards this season. They also have a stout run defense that limits their opponents to just 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Notre Dame has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing on a neutral field. Clemson has covered the point spread in six of their last eight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. They have rushed for 301 and 350 yards in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 300 yards in two straight games. Their defense did hold Pittsburgh to an incredible 8 passing yards in the ACC Championship Game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last game. That unit will miss Dexter Lawrence after the 340-lb defensive tackle was suspended for this game for a positive PED test. Moving forward, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against opponents outside the ACC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing on a neutral field laying 10.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame has played a challenging schedule this season and answered the bell every time. Their good defense, as well as their advantage with the height of their receiving targets, should help them keep this game very close. 10* CFB Notre Dame-Clemson ESPN Special with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (255) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (255) and the Clemson Tigers (256). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (12-0) closed out their perfect regular season with their 24-17 win at USC as a 13.5-point favorite back on November 24th. Clemson (13-0) won the ACC Championship Game on December 1st with their 42-10 win against Pittsburgh as a 27-point favorite. These two teams meet in Dallas’ AT&T Stadium in the Cotton Bowl which serves as a proxy for the College Football Semifinals.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers have won three straight games by at least three touchdowns — and they have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total after winning at least their last two games by 21 points. They also have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Clemson once again boasts an outstanding defense that ranks 2nd in the nation by allowing 13.7 PPG while also ranking 3rd in the FBS by only giving up 276.7 total YPG. Those defensive numbers drop to 12.8 PPG and 252.0 YPG allowed in their six games played away from home. The Tigers are going to make things very difficult for this Irish offense. Clemson leads the nation by pressuring the quarterback in 45.8% of opponent passing plays. They also rank tops in the country by limiting opposing rushers to just 0.9 Yards-Per-Carry before delivering the first hit on the runner. Notre Dame has relied on clean holes from their offensive line as they average 2.5 Yards-Per-Carry before their rusher is hit which ranks 37th in the nation. While the Clemson will be without defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence for this game as he was suspended for this contest for positive PED test, their defensive line is loaded with talent and depth. This group should be even more ferocious with the extra rest and preparation — and this team has played 29 of their last 41 games Under the Total when playing with two or more weeks of rest. The Tigers do have a dynamic offense that became more powerful when freshman Trevor Lawrence took over under center early in the season. Clemson has scored 98 points over their last two games — but they have played 15 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least 42 points in two straight games. The Tigers have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Clemson has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total in bowl games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Notre Dame has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they generated 473 yards of offense against the Trojans defense, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Irish surrendered 349 passing yards in that game with USC — but they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Notre Dame is an outstanding defensive team that ranked 10th in the nation by allowing only 17.3 PPG — and they also ranked 20th in the FBS by giving up just 331.5 total YPG. This team has not allowed an opponent to score more than 27 points all season. The key to their efforts has been to minimize big plays — they gave up only five plays that accounted for more than 40 yards this season. They also have a stout run defense that limits their opponents to just 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry. The Fighting Irish have played 4 of the last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Notre Dame has also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog giving 10.5 to 21 points.

FINAL TAKE: This is a matchup between two similar teams that employ run-first offenses that help to protect talented but inexperienced quarterbacks — and both teams like to rely on their strong defensive units. Expect this to be a lower-scoring game. 25* CFB Playoff Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (255) and the Clemson Tigers (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (252) plus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (251). THE SITUATION: Virginia (7-5) has lost two straight games after their 34-31 overtime loss on the road at Virginia Tech as a 4-point favorite on November 23rd. South Carolina (7-5) has won two of their last three games with their 28-3 win over Akron as a 28.5-point favorite on December 1st. These two teams meet in Charlotte for the Belk Bowl this afternoon.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Virginia endured a brutal ending of their season by losing their last two games on the road in overtime with setbacks to the Hokies and Georgia Tech. Head coach Bronco Mendenhall should have his team ready to play as the Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less on the road. Virginia has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after losing two straight games that were played on the road. The Cavaliers’ offense did average 6.33 Yards-Per-Play against Virginia Tech — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after averaging at least 6.2 YPP in their last game. Virginia plays good defense which is typical of a Mendenhall-coached team. The Caves rank 27th in the nation by allowing just 21.8 PPG — and they also rank 23rd in the FBS by allowing only 337.2 total YPG. This strong defensive play helped them out-gain their opponents by +22.8 net YPG when playing on the road. Virginia has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the ACC — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. South Carolina enter this game undermanned with a host of injuries along with their top wide receiver Deebo Samuel sitting out this game to prepare for the NFL draft. The Gamecocks held the Zips to just 260 yards of offense in their victory to begin the month — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. South Carolina had covered the point spread in their previous two games before putting on the brakes at halftime against Akron after taking a 28-3 lead to then fail to cover the -28.5 point spread. But the Gamecocks  has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Defense remains a concern for this team who allowed their last three Power-Five conference opponents to average a whopping 629 YPG. They are being out-gained when playing away from home by -29.6 PPG due to their defense that surrenders 499.8 total YPG. Not surprisingly, South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field as  the favorite. Run defense is the primary concern for this team as they rank 93rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to average 194.5 rushing YPG. To make matters worse for the Cavaliers, they are missing two of their key players on defense due to injuries to defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw and cornerback Keisean Nixon. Virginia’s solid running back Jordan Ellis who rushed for 920 yards this season should be able to find space to move the football. The Gamecocks will rely on the arm of QB Jake Bentley — but he faces a tough Cavaliers’ pass defense that ranks 14th in the nation by allowing only 180.1 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia is undervalued in this spot given those two overtime losses. The Cavaliers play the better defense — and they face a Gamecocks team that is missing some pieces. Expect a close game. 10* CFB South Carolina-Virginia ABC-TV Special with the Virginia Cavaliers (252) plus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (251). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (244) plus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (243). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (8-3) has lost their last two games with their 59-56 loss to Oklahoma as a 3-point underdog back on November 23rd. Syracuse (9-3) enters this game coming off a 42-21 upset win at Boston College as a 6-point underdog back on November 24th. These two teams trade to Orlando, Florida to take part in the Camping World Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The big news with this West Virginia team relates to the players who will not be playing in this bowl game. The Mountaineers’ offense will be without quarterback Will Grier along with their star left tackle Yodney Cajuste and slot wide receiver Gary Jennings who have chosen to not play due to nagging injuries and the prospects of staying healthy for the NFL draft in the spring. Their absence explains why West Virginia opened as a 7.5-point favorite but now find themselves as 3-point underdogs. Frankly, those players are not worth the 10-point swing with this point spread. In head coach Dana Holgorsen, we trust — at least when it comes to the offensive side of the football. Frankly, I always found Grier a bit overrated as a quarterback. Holgorsen’s offensive system is the star of this program and he has a comer four-star recruit in Miami (FL) transfer in Jack Allison to step in as his starting quarterback after getting all the first-team reps in practice. The West Virginia offense will be just fine. And this team should play hard as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight up loss. Furthermore, the Mountaineers are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. West Virginia almost pulled the upset against a Sooners’ team that advanced to the College Football Playoffs. Oklahoma scored two touchdowns from fumble recoveries that made the winning difference in that game. The Mountaineers are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the Big 12. Syracuse may be due for a big letdown after the 21-point upset victory over the Eagles. The Orange have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after an upset victory by at least two touchdowns as an underdog. Syracuse has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after an upset win by at least three touchdowns as an underdog. Furthermore, the Orange have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after an upset win over an ACC conference rival. And while Syracuse out-gained Boston College by +219 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after out-gaining their last opponent by at least +225 yards. Pass defense is an area of concern for this team as they ranked 112th in the nation by allowing 263.0 passing YPG. That is a big concern when facing a Holgorsen offense (who will be calling the plays in this game after offensive coordinator took the head coaching job at Texas State). The Orange also struggled on the road where they were out-gained by -46.0 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Syracuse will be playing in their first bowl game since 2014 — so this may be a group that is just happy to be here. West Virginia should be feisty after their loss to the Sooners while motivated to make a good start to next season with this program moving forward from Grier and company. 10* CFB Syracuse-West Virginia ESPN Special with the West Virginia Mountaineers (244) plus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (243). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (241) and the Purdue Boilermakers (242). THE SITUATION: Auburn (7-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 52-21 loss at Alabama as a 25.5-point underdog back on November 24th. Purdue (6-6) snapped their two-game losing streak on that November 24th with their 28-21 victory at Indiana as a 3-point favorite. These two teams meeting in Nashville in the Music City Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Auburn has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Under is also 19-6-2 in their last 27 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Tigers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by at least three touchdowns. The Auburn defense was humiliated by the arch-rivals in the Iron Bowl as they surrendered 500 yards of offense in their loss to Alabama. While most of the attention has since been on the Tigers offense that saw their offensive coordinator in Chip Lindsey leave for the same job at Kansas, the Tigers defense has much to prove in this game. The Under is 4-0-1 in Auburn’s last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after surrendering at least 450 yards in their last game. The Tigers had not given up more than 30 points in one game all season before their showdown with the Crimson Tide — they still enter this bowl game ranked 18th in the nation by allowing only 19.6 PPG. There is plenty of talent on the defensive side of the football, particularly on the defensive line. Head coach Gus Malzahn takes over the play-calling once again with Lindsey defection but I do not see this leading to a transcendent difference in the play of their offense. This will be junior QB Jarrett Stidham’s last collegiate game before he makes himself available for the NFL draft but he oversaw an underperforming offense that scored just 18.4 PPG — almost 10 PPG below their season average — in their five games played on the road. The history of this team suggests this will be a lower-scoring game than expected. Auburn has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 3-point range — and the Under is 15-4-2 in their last 21 games against teams outside the SEC. The Under is also 6-0-2 in the Tigers’ last 8 games played on a neutral field — and the Under is also 4-0-1 in their last 5 bowl games. Purdue has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Senior QB David Blough passed for 310 yards in their last win over the Hoosiers to end the season — but the Boilermakers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Purdue has only committed one turnover in three straight games — but they have then played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. Some observers are expecting a big offensive output from this team with head coach Jeff Brohm staying with the program after turning down overtures from Louisville where he oversaw huge offensive numbers as their quarterback. The Boilermakers put up 49 points against Ohio State in their upset win over the Buckeyes this season — but that was against a mess of an OSU defense that was not responding to coaching and basic fundamentals at that point of the season. This same offense scored only 13 points at Michigan State and a mere 10 points at Minnesota. Over their last three games, Purdue has averaged just 378.3 total YPG. This offense will likely struggle against the size and speed of the Auburn defensive line. Lastly, the Boilermakers have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after playing a conference rival.

FINAL TAKE: While both these teams have intriguing offensive head coaches, expect this bowl game to be a lower-scoring game this afternoon. 25* CFB Bowl Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (241) and the Purdue Boilermakers (242). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vanderbilt Commodores (239) and the Baylor Bears (240). THE SITUATION: Vanderbilt (6-6) has won three of their last four games with their 38-13 win over Tennessee as a 3.5-point favorite back on November 24th. Baylor (6-6) snapped their two-game winning streak on November 24th with their 35-24 upset win at Texas Tech as a 6-point underdog. These two teams meeting at Houston’s NRG Stadium in the Texas Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Vanderbilt has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Commodores held the Volunteers to just 242 yards of offense in that game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Vandy has held their last two opponents to just 121 and 103 rushing yards — and they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two straight games. But offense remains an issue for this team that scores just 22.0 PPG when playing away from their home in Nashville. The Commodores are bottom-ten in the nation with a Red Zone scoring percentage of just 74.5%. That is far below the national average of scoring at least a field goal in 83.9% of Red Zone opportunities. Baylor is not much better with a Red Zone scoring percentage of 75.5%. The Bears are scoring just 19.3 PPG over their last three contests. With their star tight end Jalen Hurd skipping this bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft, Baylor will now be missing one of their best weapons on offense. But the Bears defense has steadily improved this season as they have held their last three opponents to just 22.7 PPG along with only 337.7 total YPG. Baylor has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Bears have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of December — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: In a game between two teams that struggle to take advantage of their Red Zone opportunities, expect at least one of these teams to struggle to score points. 20* CFB Vanderbilt-Baylor ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Vanderbilt Commodores (239) and the Baylor Bears (240). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Take the Baylor Bears plus the points versus the Vanderbilt Commodores in the Texas Bowl. Baylor (6-6) looks to build off their 35-24 win at Texas Tech in their last game as a 6-point underdog. The Bears got their offense going by generating 478 yards of offense in that game. Baylor has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games in the month of December. Vanderbilt (6-6) has won three of their last four games with their 38-13 win over Tennessee to close out their regular season. The Commodores held the Volunteers to just 139 yards of offense in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last game. Additionally, while Vanderbilt did not force a turnover in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. Take Baylor plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports CA$HED the Denver-Oakland Under in the NFL on Monday in their last Football Totals play which continued their 19 of 28 (68%) FOOTBALL TOTALS TEAR! Now after passing in CFB Bowl Totals plays yesterday, Frank’s TOP THURSDAY TOTAL is with the Vandy-Baylor O/U winner on ESPN at 9 PM ET! WATCH & WIN — and BANK on Frank!

At 1:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (235) plus the points versus the Temple Owls (236). Duke (7-5) stumbled into the postseason losing their last two games after their ugly 59-7 upset loss to Wake Forest as a 9.5-point favorite. Temple (8-4) has won three straight games after their 57-7 win at UConn as a 32-point favorite. These two meet in the hotbed that is Shreveport, Louisiana for the Independence Bowl this afternoon.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: Duke’s loss to the Demon Deacons was preceded by a 35-6 loss at Clemson the previous week. Those bad losses make these Blue Devils pretty unappetizing to many bettors — but this team has rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing their last two contests by at least four touchdowns. Injuries took their toll on this team particularly on the defensive side of the football. Duke held their opponents to just 341 total YPG in their first seven games but then surrendered 529 YPG over their last five games. While the Blue Devils are still banged up on defense, the extra weeks of preparation allows teams to coach-up the younger players as these football teams make the turn to beginning the groundwork for their next season. There is no one better in the business in coaching up his players than Duke’s head coach David Cutcliffe who is finishing his eleventh season running this football program. It is telling that the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 4 straight bowl games — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Duke surrendered over 500 YPG over their last three contests — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last three games. The Blue Devils are due for some luck when it comes to the bouncing-ball that plays a big role in the turnover game. Duke has not forced a turnover in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after not forcing more than one turnover in three straight games. Additionally, the Blue Devils are a decisive 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games against teams outside the ACC — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as an underdog. Temple will be playing with an interim head coach with their special teams/tight end coach Ed Foley handling these duties for Geoff Collins who left the program for the Georgia Tech job. While predicting how this will impact the morale of the players when a head coach departs is often just a guessing game, it is safe to say the Owls do not benefit from this turnover in leadership. Temple grounded out 293 rushing yards in their last game against the Huskies — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last contest. The Owls have used three quarterbacks this season due to injuries and poor play — they all combined to throw 17 touchdown passes along with 18 interceptions. It looks like sophomore Anthony Russo will be healthy to get the start this afternoon — but he has thrown 13 of the team’s interceptions. Run defense is also an issue for this team as they allowed their opponents to average 190.3 rushing YPG which is 90th in the nation — and Duke is a run-first team. Furthermore, the Owls have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when played on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: Temple had a better record this season but faced inferior competition than Duke given their American Athletic Conference schedule. Cutcliffe will have his team prepared to play as he always does in bowl games — and he had the leverage of imposing his will on a group of players who played poorly in their last two games. Expect a close game that the Blue Devils have an opportunity to win — but take the points for some insurance. 10* CFB Duke-Temple ESPN Special with the Duke Blue Devils (235) plus the points versus the Temple Owls (236). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (232) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (231). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-6) closed out their regular season winning two of their last three games with a 37-15 upset win at Wisconsin as a 12-point underdog on November 24th. Georgia Tech (7-5) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on November 24th with their 45-21 loss at Georgia as a 17-point underdog. These two teams meet for the first time ever in Detroit’s Ford Field in the Quick Lane Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YELLOW JACKETS MINUS THE POINTS: While this is the first bowl game for this team in head coach P.J. Fleck’s coaching tenure at Minnesota, there are reasons to believe the team already won their “proverbial” bowl game when they pulled the upset over Big Ten West powerhouse Wisconsin to close out their season. Two of their best players in linebacker Blake Ashman and offensive lineman Donnell Greene have opted to skip this game to stay healthy for the NFL draft in the spring. Fleck has also suspended at least one player for this game after violating team rules — and because he is being cagey on this front, we cannot dismiss the possibility that a rash of suspensions may be pending tonight with the head coach looking to next season. As it is, the Golden Gophers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least three touchdowns against a conference rival — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a victory by at least 20 points. Minnesota is also 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Despite their upset win in Madison against an injured Badgers team, the Golden Gophers were not a very good team on the road where they were just 1-4 while being outscored by -14.4 PPG. Their defense surrendered 520.0 Yards-Per-Game on the road which led to them being out-gained by -140.8 net YPG away from home. Minnesota also struggled against the run this season which is not a good sign when facing this Georgia Tech spread triple option that led the nation by averaging 334.9 rushing YPG. The Golden Gophers surrendered 430 yards to Illinois and another 383 rushing yards to Nebraska en route to them being routed by 49 combined points to both teams. They allowed their opponents to average 7.9 Yards-Per-Carry when playing away from home. Minnesota has covered the point spread in two of their last three games but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Georgia Tech has not covered the point spread in two of their last three games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 37 points in their last game. The Yellow Jackets managed only 219 total yards in their last game against the Bulldogs — but they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after failing to gain at least 225 yards in their last game. Georgia Tech’s ground game travels which helps explain why they out-gained their opponents by +87.2 net YPG when playing on the road. The Yellow Jackets offense has been cranking it up as of late as they have scored 144 combined points in their last four games. Additionally, much like the speculation about who will have the home crowd edge in a bowl game that will have less than 20,000 in attendance in a cavernous large stadium (as if that crowd noise will play a lick of difference then in the game), there is the conventional wisdom that the Yellow Jackets underachieve in bowl games since their opponents have extra time to prepare for their unique offense. Yet Georgia Tech has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of December — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Paul Johnson has plenty of wrinkles he can add to his spread triple option with the extra weeks of preparation. This will be the eleven year veteran at Georgia Tech his last game as a head coach with his decision to retire after this game. Expect plenty of surprises from this team. Most importantly, his players should be very motivated to play for their head coach in his final game and have him leave as a winner. Don’t be surprised if this one is a blowout. 10* CFB Minnesota-Georgia Tech ESPN Special with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (232) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (231). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (227) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (228). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (7-5) has lost their last two games after closing out their regular season on November 24th with a 30-15 upset loss at Western Kentucky as a 10.5-point favorite. Hawai’i (8-5) has won two straight games after they pulled off a 31-30 upset victory at San Diego State on November 24th as an 18-point underdog. The Rainbow Warriors are the host team in the Hawai’i Bowl taking place a couple days earlier than it’s traditional Christmas Eve or day spot.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINT(S): If there is one coach I am not going to worry too much about having his team ready to play even in Hawai’i over winter break, it is Skip Holtz who has led Louisiana Tech to win all four of their bowl games under his guidance in the previous five seasons with the program. Even better, the average winning margin for the Bulldogs under Holts has been by -20.5 PPG. After this team lost three of their last four games of the regular season, this is a business trip for this team. As it is, Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 17 games after a loss by at least 10 points on their home field. The Bulldogs did out-gain the Hilltoppers by a decisive +92 net yards in that contest while holding them to just 288 net yards but lost the Time of Possession battle by having the ball for only 25:57 minutes of that game. Little worries of that History Repeating itself tonight against this pass-happy Warriors offense. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Louisiana Tech ranks 32nd in the nation by holding their opponents to just 350.9 total YPG — and they have held their last three opponents to only 298.0 total YPG. Defensive coordinator Blake Baker will benefit from the extra few weeks to prepare for the unique relic of an offense that Hawai’i operates with their old Run-and-Shoot resurrected by their third-year head coach Nick Rolovich. Four close wins decided by one scoring possession for this Rainbow Warriors team obscures the fact that they were out-scored and out-gained in yardage by their opponents this season. They do have the home field advantage for this game but despite their 5-2 home record, they are only outscoring their visitors by 1.0 PPG. Over their last three games, Hawai’i was outscored by -10.3 PPG. They did generate 516 total yards against a collapsing San Diego State defense to end the season — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Louisiana Tech should be able to move the ball at will against this suspect Rainbow Warriors defense that ranked 101st in the nation by allowing 438.7 total YPG. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games against teams with a winning record — and they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference.

FINAL TAKE: Home field advantage is tempting for the Rainbow Warriors tonight — but that edge only goes so far. A motivated Bulldogs team that is well-coached with a very good defense should overwhelm this Hawai’i team that has become too one dimensional on offense with the Run-and-Shoot gimmick. 25* CFB Bailout Game of the Year with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (227) (or plus) the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (228). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bulls (225) and the Troy Trojans (226). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 3-29 upset loss to Northern Illinois in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game as a 3-point favorite back on November 30th. Troy (9-3) looks to bounce-back from a 21-10 loss at Appalachian State back on November 24th as a 12-point underdog. These two teams meet in Mobile, Alabama for the Dollar General Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Buffalo has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a narrow loss by just 3 points or less against a conference rival — and the Over is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. This Bulls team has a balanced offense that averages 195.8 rushing YPG (44th in the nation) and 221.6 passing YPG (73rd in the FBS) to produce an offense that ranks 24th in the nation by scoring 34.8 PPG. But stopping opposing offenses can be an issue for this team after they allowed a Northern Illinois offense that has been rather meek this season to generate 409 yards of offense. 300 of those yards were in the air in that game — and Buffalo has played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Over their last three games, the Bulls are allowing 420.0 total YPG which is over 70 YPG more than their defensive average for the season. Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against non-conference opponents — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Bulls have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing with more than two weeks between games — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Troy has played 19 of their last 26 road games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total after a loss on the road where they covered the point spread as an underdog. The Trojans have a good defense that ranks 23rd in the FBS by allowing just 21.2 PPG. But Troy has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 38 of their last 55 games Over the Total against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference. Furthermore, the Trojans have played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total in expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range. Lastly, Troy has played 7 straight games Over the Total played on a neutral field — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total in bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: Troy lost their starting quarterback, Kaleb Barker, to a season-ending ACL injury in the middle of the year — so the extra few weeks of practice and repetitions should really help sophomore QB Sawyer Smith. Boise State, UL-Monroe, Georgia State and South Alabama all had success moving the football against the Trojans defense. This should be a competitive game which should help push the Total over the number. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bulls (225) and the Troy Trojans (226). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (223) and the Army West Point Black Knights (224). THE SITUATION: Houston (8-4) has lost three of their last four games with their 52-31 loss at Memphis as a 9.5-point underdog back on November 23rd. Army (10-2) has won eight straight games after their 17-10 win over Navy two Saturdays ago as a 7-point favorite. These two teams face off in Fort Worth, Texas in the Armed Forces Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Houston has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. The Cougars are dealing with a host on injuries on both sides of the ball. The most significant issue on offense is the season-ending injury to their dynamic starting quarterback D’Eriq King. With his backup Quinten Dormady out the door in a likely transfer to Central Michigan, the starter for this game falls on the shoulders of freshman Clayton Tune. In his first career start against Memphis, Tune completed only 18 of 43 passes for 256 yards while not offering much of a rushing threat as he gained just 12 yards on 13 carries on the ground. Tune is completing just 44.7% of his 85 pass attempts this season — and his top two wide receiver targets are listed as questionable. Tune will struggle against the fundamentally sound Black Knights’ defense that ranks 9th in the nation by allowing only 293.5 total YPG. Over their last three games, Army is allowing just 12.3 PPG along with only 206.0 total YPG. The bigger concern for the Cougars is their defense that ranks 124th in the FBS by allowing 488.5 total YPG. But those are tempo-free numbers that are exacerbated by the fact that Houston’s fast pace offense places them 129th in the nation by averaging just 25:04 minutes per game. The Cougars allowing 5.71 Yards-Per-Play which ranks 74th in the nation — and is just a smidge below the 5.72 YPP defensive average for this Army team that protects their defense by leading the nation by averaging 38:51 minutes per game. Houston allowed 610 yards against the Tigers in their last game with 401 of those yards coming on the ground. But the Cougars have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have also played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after giving up at least 300 rushing yards in their last contest. And to stay consistent with tempo-free numbers, while Houston allowed Memphis to average 6.63 Yards-Per-Play on their whopping 93 plays on offense in that last game, they have then played 31 of their last 44 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.25 YPP. The Cougars have faced a spread triple option offense already as Navy torched them for 344 rushing yards — and now their defensive line is without future NFL star Ed Oliver who is bypassing playing in this game along with two other starters who are injured. But the extra weeks of practice for this offense as well as the experience of that game with the Midshipmen will help immensely. Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with at least one bye week between games. Army has played 23 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Black Knights have also played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total in the month of December. And in their last 22 games played on a neutral field, Army has played 17 of these games Under the Total. And staying true to tempo-free stats, their defense has improved as of late by allowing just 4.5 Yards-Per-Play over their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: I am passing on the side on this game (lean Army) — but the best betting proposition for this game is the Under given the high Total that is undervaluing the quality of the Cougars defense. Houston will struggle to fully execute their aggressive up-tempo offense with the freshman under center which will allow Army to control the Time of Possession. While I am not sure that leads them to cover the point spread, the fewer offensive possessions should ensure an Under. 10* CFB Houston-Army ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (223) and the Army West Point Black Knights (224). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (221) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (222). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (6-6) became bowl eligible by winning two of their final three games after their 59-7 upset win at Duke as a 9.5-point underdog on November 24th. Memphis (8-5) saw their four-game winning snapped in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game with their 56-41 loss to Central Florida back on December 1st where they were 1-point underdogs. These two teams meet in Alabama for the Birmingham Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DEMON DEACONS PLUS THE POINTS: It might be difficult for Memphis to pick themselves off the mat for this second-tier bowl game after they blew a 38-21 halftime to once again lose the Knights. There has been plenty of attrition over the last couple of weeks with three assistant coaches (including the offensive and defensive coordinator) taking new jobs and running back Darrell Henderson opting not to play in this game. The Tigers still have talent at running back — but it will be hard to replace his 1909 rushing yards that resulted in 22 touchdowns and an 8.9 Yards-Per-Carry average. Memphis has covered the point spread in six of their last eight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Tigers have also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a game where at least 80 combined points were scored. Memphis generated 583 yards of offense against UCF after gaining 610 yards in their previous game against Houston — but the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after gaining at least 575 yards in their last game while also failing to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after gaining at least 525 yards in two straight games. This is a team that ranked 92nd in the nation by allowing 31.5 PPG — and that number increased to 40.3 PPG in their six games away from home along with 513.0 Yards-Per-Game that they allowed their opponents to generate. This porous defense makes them precarious favorites — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Tigers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in the month of December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against non-conference opponents. Wake Forest has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game where at least 63 combined points were scored. The encouraging aspect from this Demon Deacons team down the stretch was the improved play of their defense. Over their last three games, their run defense got significantly better as they allowed only 307 combined rushing yards and held opposing rushers to just a 2.8 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Blue Devils managed only 105 rushing yards and 145 passing yards against this defense. Wake Forest has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last contest. Wake held a 31-7 halftime lead in that game as well — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after not allowing more than 7 points in the first-half of their last game. The offense is clicking by the continued improvement of sophomore quarterback Jamie Newman who took over under center after freshman Sam Hartman suffered a season-ending leg injury. He oversees an offense that ranks 31st in the nation by averaging 443.2 total YPG — and the Demon Deacons have scored 33.0 PPG over their last three games. Wake Forest has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 bowl games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field where they are underdogs. Together, these team trends produce our specific 145-53 combined angle for this situation.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest played the more difficult schedule with a full tilt of ACC opponents. The Demon Deacons will not have their star sophomore slot receiver in Greg Dortch who is out with an injured finger but their run-oriented spread offense should still move the ball against the Tigers defense. 10* CFB Wake Forest-Memphis ESPN Special with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (221) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (222). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (221) and the Memphis Tigers (222). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (6-6) became bowl eligible by winning two of their final three games after their 59-7 upset win at Duke as a 9.5-point underdog on November 24th. Memphis (8-5) saw their four-game winning snapped in the Conference USA Championship Game with their 56-41 loss to Central Florida back on December 1st where they were 1-point underdogs. These two teams meet in Alabama for the Birmingham Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Memphis has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. The Tigers have covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five contests. The offense took a hit with their star running back Darrell Henderson opting out of this game to avoid injury before making himself available for the NFL draft. But this Memphis offense still has Patrick Taylor and Tony Pollard in the backfield who combined to rush for 1455 yards with 20 touchdowns. The Tigers will be able to move the ball against this Demon Deacons defense that ranked 116th in the nation by allowing 465.3 total YPG. But Memphis has struggled to stop opposing offenses as well as they rank 92nd in the nation by giving up 31.5 PPG — and they gave up 40.3 PPG along with 513.0 Yards-Per-Game in their six games away from home. Central Florida generated 698 yards against them — and Memphis has played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Tigers have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Furthermore, Memphis has played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams outside the American Athletic Conference — and they have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the month of December. The Tigers have also played 30 of their last 46 games Over the Total in expected high-scoring games with the Total set at least at 63. Wake Forest has a powerful offense as well as they rank 31st in the nation by averaging 443.2 total YPG — and that number rises to 492.0 YPG along with 36.4 PPG in their five games on the road.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Western Michigan Broncos (220) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (219). THE SITUATION: Western Michigan (7-5) enters the postseason coming off a 28-21 upset win over Northern Illinois as a 6.5-point underdog back on November 20th. BYU (6-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on November 24th with their 35-27 loss at Utah as a 10.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Michigan has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win at home. And while some teams may suffer an emotional letdown after an upset victory, I suspect that victory for this Broncos team will be galvanizing for them. Second year head coach Tim Lester fired his defensive coordinator before that game against the Huskies and the result was his defense played their best game of the season by only allowing 262 yards of offense. Western Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset victory as a home underdog — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after pulling an upset over a conference rival. Western Michigan dominated that Northern Illinois team that then went on to upset Buffalo in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game as they out-gained them by +137 net yards. The Broncos have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after out-gaining their last opponent by at least +125 yards. The extra weeks of bowl practice should help in the continued development of freshman quarterback Kaleb Eleby who has started the last three games for the injured Jon Wassink. Eleby completed 19 of 35 passes for 285 yards against a stout Huskies defense — and he is completing 64.5% of his passes this season. Western Michigan has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after passing for at least 285 yards in their last game. And in their last 17 games on the road after losing three of their last four games, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 14 of these contests. BYU has questionable motivation issues after blowing a 20-0 halftime lead against their in-state rivals to close out the season. Losing that game cost the Cougars a more attractive bowl site — now they travel north to bland Boise to play a team not representing a Power Five conference. This BYU team has a host of distractions as well with some players out getting married with others out due to injuries and a number of players taking exams while on this trip. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a bye week. They also have a freshman at quarterback with Zach Wilson starting the last six games for the team when he was tapped by head coach Kalani Sitake to take over as the starter. BYU relies on their defense as they grind out games with an offense dedicated to running the ball and winning the battle at the line of scrimmage. While that is a consistent way to be be successful and stay competitive in all their games, it is not a reliable way to cover double-digit point spreads. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field. Together, these team trends produce our specific 74-24 ATS combined angle for this situation.

FINAL TAKE: This is the first bowl game for Western Michigan under head coach Lester after they were one of the few teams passed over despite having six wins last season. They should be motivated to make a statement in this game to close out their season. BYU has hire expectations as an independent modeling their program as the Notre Dame of the west. BYU’s defense may be the difference in this game — but they are laying way too many points as a double-digit favorite. 10* CFB BYU-Western Michigan ESPN Special with the Western Michigan Broncos (220) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (219). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Western Michigan Broncos (220) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (219). THE SITUATION: Western Michigan (7-5) enters the postseason coming off a 28-21 upset win over Northern Illinois as a 6.5-point underdog back on November 20th. BYU (6-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on November 24th with their 35-27 loss at Utah as a 10.5-point underdog. These two teams travel to Boise, Idaho for the Potato Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Michigan has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win at home. And while some teams may suffer an emotional letdown after an upset victory, I suspect that victory for this Broncos team will be galvanizing for them. Second-year head coach Tim Lester fired his defensive coordinator before that game against the Huskies and the result was his defense played their best game of the season by only allowing 262 yards of offense. Western Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset victory as a home underdog — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after pulling an upset over a conference rival. Western Michigan dominated that Northern Illinois team that then went on to upset Buffalo in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game as they out-gained them by +137 net yards. The Broncos have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after out-gaining their last opponent by at least +125 yards. The extra weeks of bowl practice should help in the continued development of freshman quarterback Kaleb Eleby who has started the last three games for the injured Jon Wassink. Eleby completed 19 of 35 passes for 285 yards against a stout Huskies defense — and he is completing 64.5% of his passes this season. Western Michigan has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after passing for at least 285 yards in their last game. And in their last 17 games on the road after losing three of their last four games, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 14 of these contests. BYU has questionable motivation issues after blowing a 20-0 halftime lead against their in-state rivals to close out the season. Losing that game cost the Cougars a more attractive bowl site — now they travel north to bland Boise to play a team not representing a Power Five conference. This BYU team has a host of distractions as well with some players out getting married with others out due to injuries and a number of players taking exams while on this trip. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a bye week. They also have a freshman at quarterback with Zach Wilson starting the last six games for the team when he was tapped by head coach Kalani Sitake to take over as the starter. BYU relies on their defense as they grind out games with an offense dedicated to running the ball and winning the battle at the line of scrimmage. While that is a consistent way to be successful and stay competitive in all their games, it is not a reliable way to cover double-digit point spreads. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field. Together, these team trends produce our specific 74-24 ATS combined angle for this situation.

FINAL TAKE: This is the first bowl game for Western Michigan under head coach Lester after they were one of the few teams passed over despite having six wins last season. They should be motivated to make a statement in this game to close out their season. BYU has higher expectations as an independent team modeling their program as the Notre Dame of the west. BYU’s defense may be the difference in this game — but they are laying way too many points as a double-digit favorite. 10* CFB BYU-Western Michigan ESPN Special with the Western Michigan Broncos (220) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (219). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Florida International Golden Panthers (217) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (218). FIU (8-4) looks to bounce-back from their 28-25 loss to Marshall as a 3.5-point underdog on November 25th. Toledo (7-5) has won two straight games after their 51-13 win over Central Michigan as a 19-point favorite on November 23rd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: FIU has rebounded to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss to a conference rival. The Golden Panthers will be without their starting quarterback James Morgan in this game as he has been declared out with an injury he sustained in that final game against the Thundering Herd. Junior Christian Alexander has experience under center this season and he will get the start tonight. He benefits from getting most of the starter’s reps in bowl practice — and he is the likely starter next season. He will also be protected by a good offensive line that allowed only 10 sacks this season. The Golden Panthers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Mid-American Conference. FIU has also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games as an underdog. And while they have played five straight games Over the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after playing at least two straight Overs. Toledo has played two straight games Over the Total — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after playing at least two straight Overs. The Rockets have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points. This Toledo team has a leaky defense which makes them precarious favorites now when laying at least a touchdown. They rank 94th in the nation by allowing 430.1 total YPG — and they are giving up 30.2 PPG. When playing away from home, the Rockets are being out-gained by -21.6 Yards-Per-Game. This is also a team playing with their second-string quarterback with sophomore Eli Peters now their starter after the season-ending injury to Mitchell Guadagni last month. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against non-conference opponents. Lastly, the Rockets are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in the month of December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with more than two weeks of rest and preparation.

FINAL TAKE: I am adding this as a late play given the line movement on Toledo that has elevated the Golden Panthers to an underdog getting (at least) 7 points in most spots. The FIU offense will be fine with Alexander — especially against this porous Rockets defense. Too many points to lay. Both of these teams will be motivated to play in the Bahamas. Toledo was shutout by Appalachian State in the Dollar General Bowl last season but FIU was embarrassed in a 28-3 loss to Temple in the Gasparilla Bowl in a game where they had to rely on unprepared backup quarterbacks after an injury to senior QB Alex McGough. 10* CFB FIU-Toledo ESPN Special with the Florida International Golden Panthers (217) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the South Florida Bulls (216) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (215) in the Gasparilla Bowl. THE SITUATION: Marshall (8-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 1st with their 41-20 loss at Virginia Tech as a 3.5-point underdog. South Florida (7-5) has lost five straight games after their 38-10 loss to Central Florida as a 16.5-point favorite back on November 23rd. With this bowl game being moved from St. Petersburg to Raymond James Stadium on Tampa Bay, the Bulls playing in their home stadium for this bowl game.

REASONS TO TAKE SOUTH FLORIDA PLUS THE POINTS: Not only are the Bulls 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up loss but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss at home. Furthermore, South Florida has covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home after a loss by at least four touchdowns. It has almost been a month since the Bulls last played and second-year head coach Charlie Strong needed to take full advantage of bowl preparation as looks to build this team for next season. Things started very well for this team with second straight wins to begin the season — and a victory now will remove the bad taste that is in everyone’s mouth after this team dropped its last five games. South Florida has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with at least two weeks between games. The big question for this team is whether or not junior quarterback Blake Barnett will be able to take the field in this game. The former Alabama QB injured his ankle two games ago which kept him out of that final game with UCF. Barnett is officially listed as questionable for this contest and while he has taken off his walking boot this week, there is little other indication that he is actually ready to play in this game. I suspect that second-year head coach Charlie Strong will not risk further injury to his likely incumbent starter who has not practiced for this game and who will not be at 100%. The Bulls have only scored 27 combined points in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. South Florida remains a football team that has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after winning three of their last four games. This is the Thundering Herd’s third straight game away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after playing a game on the road. There are some concerns with the Marshall defense after a suspect Virginia Tech offense that generated 454 yards of offense. The Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. While Marshall boasted an outstanding run defense this year, they did allow opponents to average 231.7 passing YPG against them which ranks 69th in the FBS. They also allowed home teams to average 372.8 total YPG against them which was over 35 more YPG than their season average. The Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road as the favorite. Additionally, Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games as the favorite. And in their last 7 games with the Total in the 49.5 to 56 point range, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Thundering Herd were flat in their opportunity to upset a vulnerable Virginia Tech team which would have been a nice accomplishment for them. Their motivation to play a true road game in Tampa Bay against a team on a five-game losing streak with a 10-win season no longer possible will be a big challenge for Holliday as a head coach. On the other side of the field, home field advantage should have helped Strong get his team focused on salvaging their season and building for next year. Taking the points with the underdog is where the value is for this situation. 10* CFB Marshall-South Florida ESPN Special with the South Florida Bulls (216) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (215) in the Gasparilla Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Gasparilla Bowl between the Marshall Thundering Herd (215) and the South Florida Bulls (216). THE SITUATION: Marshall (8-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 1st with their 41-20 loss at Virginia Tech as a 3.5-point underdog. South Florida (7-5) has lost five straight games after their 38-10 loss to Central Florida as a 16.5-point favorite back on November 23rd. With this bowl game being moved from St. Petersburg to Raymond James Stadium on Tampa Bay, the Bulls playing in their home stadium for this bowl game.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 21-9-1 in South Florida’s last 31 games after a straight-up loss. The Bulls have also played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after a loss by at least 17 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total after a loss by at least four touchdowns. Furthermore, not only has South Florida played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after suffering three straight losses to conference rivals but they have also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. The big question for this team is whether or not junior quarterback Blake Barnett will be able to take the field in this game. The former Alabama QB injured his ankle two games ago which kept him out of that final game with UCF. Barnett is officially listed as questionable for this contest and while he has taken off his walking boot this week, there is little other indication that he is actually ready to play in this game. I suspect that second-year head coach Charlie Strong will not risk further injury to his likely incumbent starter who has not practiced for this game and who will not be at 100%. But even if he plays, he will be running an offense that has scored only 16.7 PPG over their last three contests while wavering only 296.0 total YPG over that span. South Florida will lean on their rushing attack that averaged 202.5 rushing YPG which was 34th best in the nation. But running the ball will be difficult against this Thundering Herd defense that ranks 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 105.3 rushing YPG — and they limit opposing rushers to just a 2.98 Yards-Per-Carry. The Bulls only managed to pass for 113 yards against Central Florida in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 14 games at home Under the Total after a game where they failed to pass for at least 125 yards. South Florida has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing at home. Marshall has played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 17 points. The Thundering Herd allowed the Hokies to average 7.09 Yards-Per-Play in their last game — but they have then played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total after allowing at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Head coach Doc Holliday should see his defense rebound with a better game tonight as they rank 23rd in the nation by allowing just 336.9 total YPG while also ranking tied for 29th in the FBS by giving up only 22.0 PPG. Marshall did not force any Virginia Tech turnovers in their last game — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after not forcing a turnover in their last game. Furthermore, the Thundering Herd have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total when favored by no more than 3 points. And in their last 7 bowl games, Marshall has played 5 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The challenges for the South Florida offense increased when their offensive coordinator, Sterlin Gilbert, left for the McNeese State head coaching job during bowl prep. Strong has tapped Justin Blake to be his interim play-caller despite his lack of experience with those duties. With the Total set in the low-50s, expect this to be a lower-scoring game. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Gasparilla Bowl between the Marshall Thundering Herd (215) and the South Florida Bulls (216). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (214) plus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (213). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (7-5) limps into the bowl season having lost three straight games after their 31-30 upset loss at home to Hawai’i to end their regular season despite being an 18-point favorite in that game back on November 24th. Ohio (8-4) has won two straight games with their 49-28 win over Akron as a 24-point favorite back on November 23rd. These two football programs meet for the first time in the Frisco Bowl in Frisco, Texas tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS PLUS THE POINTS: It was a strange season for San Diego State. After an opening week loss at Stanford, the Aztecs rattled off six-straight wins including impressive wins against Arizona State and at Boise State. But Rocky Long’s team was hit with the injury bug with starting quarterback Christian Chapman and running back Juwan Washington missing significant time with injuries — and that coincided with a difficult stretch of the season where they had challenging road games at Nevada and Fresno State. San Diego State lost three of four games down the stretch against Mountain West Conference rivals that were decided by just 15 combined points. The team was then flat in their season finale where they got upset by Hawai’i. But now Chapman and Washington are healthy again — and one thing this program has been under Long’s leadership is reliable when bouncing-back a from loss. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after a loss decided by 3 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 road games after a loss to a conference rival. Additionally, San Diego State has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games on the road after losing three of their last four games. Having Washington healthy should jumpstart this offense as he rushed for 870 yards with ten touchdowns despite playing in just eight games. The Aztecs are once again outstanding on the defensive side of the football where they rank 20th in the nation by limiting their opponents to only 327.4 total YPG. The Bobcats want to run the football as they rank 9th in the nation by rushing for 262.2 rushing YPG. But San Diego State ranks 4th in the nation by allowing only 94.5 rushing YPG this season — and opposing rushers averaged just 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry. The Aztecs faced six teams that qualified for bowl games this season — and those six teams averaged only 64.3 rushing YPG against this stout San Diego State defense. The Aztecs entered this season with a 32-9 record over their last three seasons. They are rarely an underdog under Long’s leadership — but when they are, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when getting the points. Ohio has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Bobcats preceded that 21-point win over the Zips with a 35-point win over Buffalo the previous week — but Frank Solich’s team has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning their last two games by at least three touchdowns. Ohio has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing away from after winning their last two games by double-digits. The Bobcats out-rushed Akron by a whopping 349 net yards in their last game — but they have failed cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after out-rushing their last opponent by at least 200 yards. Ohio has benefited from averaging +1.08 net turnovers per game this season which is the 5th best mark in the nation. They have not committed more than one turnover in six straight games. But after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. They will be facing an Aztecs team that has not committed a turnover in two straight games. The Bobcats thrived at home where they were a perfect 6-0 this season — but they were just 2-4 on the road while being out-gained by -30 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio has reached a bowl game in nine of the last ten seasons under Solich while enjoying a 41-6 blowout win over UAB in the Bahamas Bowl last year. San Diego State has reached a bowl game in all eight years in Long’s tenure but fourteen returning starters will look to redeem themselves from a 42-35 upset loss to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl as a 7-point favorite. With the Aztecs healthy again, they are probably the better team in this game — and they will be doubly motivated to use this game to erase last year’s underwhelming performance as well as the poor effort over three weeks against Hawai’i. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Game of the Year with the San Diego State Aztecs (214) plus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (213). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (212) minus the point(s) versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (211). THE SITUATION: UAB (10-3) won the Conference USA Championship with their 27-25 upset win at Middle Tennessee as a 1.5-point underdog back on December 1st. Northern Illinois (8-5) snapped a two-game losing streak on November 30th by upsetting Buffalo by a 30-29 score as a 3-point underdog to win the Mid-American Championship. These two conference champions meet in the Boca Raton Bowl in Florida tonight.

REASONS TO LAY THE POINTS WITH THE BLAZERS: Alabama-Birmingham should play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games off win on the road against a conference opponent. UAB has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. And while the Blazers surrendered 456 yards in that contest, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. This team is led by one of one most underrated head coaches in the nation in Bill Clark who pulled off a minor miracle getting this team to a bowl game for two straight seasons despite the football program disbanded in the previous two years. UAB is led by an outstanding defense that is 10th in the nation by allowing 17.3 PPG while also holding their opponents to only 300.2 total YPG which is 11th best in the FBS. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games when getting at least two weeks to prepare. And in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record, UAB has covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. Northern Illinois is a strange team to handicap. On the one hand, the fact that they were outscored and out-gained by their opponents this season should throw up some red flags. On the other hand, the Huskies played one of the most difficult non-conference schedules in the nation with games against Iowa, Utah, Florida State, and BYU — so those negative numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt for this non-power five conference team. The offense has been an issue for this team as they rank 119th in the nation by scoring just 20.7 PPG and they also rank 122nd in the FBS by averaging only 325.0 total YPG. In situations like this, looking to the team trends helps illuminate things if we can get a sense of the personality of the team in question when faces situations like this. Northern Illinois’ win over Buffalo went Over the 51.5 point Total — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Huskies have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in five of their last seven games with the over/under in that range. Furthermore, head coach Rod Carey is 0-5 in the five bowl games he has coached with an average losing margin of -25 PPG in those contests. While those results need to be taken with a grain of salt, it certainly is not a ringing endorsement for Carey’s vigor in getting his team ready to play in these postseason games. The Huskies are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games played on a neutral field as an underdog. At a certain point, we need to follow the numbers.

FINAL TAKE: Northern Illinois will certainly be motivated to end their bowl losing streak — and fourteen starters returned from last year’s team that was embarrassed by a 36-14 score to Duke in the Quick Lane Bowl. But UAB has sixteen starters back from last year’s team that got blown out by Ohio by a 41-6 score in the Bahamas Bowl. In hindsight, the Blazers may have just been happy to reach a bowl game since they were not playing football in the previous two seasons. Now this team travels to Florida with a conference championship and an opportunity to avenge that loss to another MAC opponent. I am trusting the team trends and the better defense in this bowl game. 10* CFB Boca Raton Bowl ESPN Special with the UAB Blazers (212) minus the point(s) versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (211). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (209) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (210). THE SITUATION: Middle Tennessee (8-5) has lost two of their last three games after they 27-25 loss to UAB at home in the Conference USA Championship Game two weeks ago as a 1.5-point favorite. Appalachian State (10-2) has won five straight games with their 30-19 win over Louisiana-Lafayette as a 17.5-point favorite in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game back on December 1st. These two teams meet in the Big Easy for the New Orleans Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach Rick Stockstill will have his team ready to play this bowl game with it being the final collegiate game for his son, Brent, as his starting quarterback. As it is, Middle Tennessee has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and this includes them covering the point spread in five of their last six games after a defeat. The Blue Raiders has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. That was a difficult situation for this Middle Tennessee team (that we jumped all over) as they ended up playing the Blazers in two straight weeks after qualifying for the conference championship game by defeating UAB the previous week. After out-rushing the Blazers by +132 yards in their victory, they were then out-rushed by -129 yards the next week in that rematch. The Blue Raiders have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after being out-rushed in their last opponent by at least 125 yards. This team has still won five of their last seven games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 6 games against Sun Belt Conference opponents, Middle Tennessee has covered the point spread 5 times. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. This team will be playing without their six-year head coach Scott Satterfield who left the program to take the Louisville head coaching job. Defensive line coach Mark Ivey will serve as the interim head coach for this game. This team may be due for a letdown after winning the Sun Belt Championship. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning their last two games by at least double-digits against conference rivals. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games.

FINAL TAKE: This is the eighth bowl back for Stockstill as the head coach of Middle Tennessee. The extra time to prepare for the Mountaineers spread offense should help the Blue Raiders defense. With Middle Tennessee having the benefit of a gunslinger at quarterback playing his final game, expect a close game. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (209) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (210). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (207) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (208). Eastern Michigan (7-5) has won three straight games with their 28-20 win at Kent State as a 12.5-point favorite back on November 23rd. Georgia Southern (9-3) has won two straight contests after their 35-14 win at Georgia State back on November 24th as a 10-point favorite. These two teams face off in the Camellia Bowl in Birmingham, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE EASTERN MICHIGAN PLUS THE POINTS: These Eagles should build off their momentum of becoming bowl eligible with their November success. Eastern Michigan has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. Eastern Michigan is led by a stout defense that ranks 32nd in the FBS by allowing only 22.0 PPG. This strong play has helped them stay competitive in almost all of their games. Despite facing teams playing in bowl games this season, five of their losses were decided by a combined 31 points with three of those losses by 3-point setbacks. Eastern Michigan’s defense has helped them play three straight Unders which is a good sign for them now. They have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after playing an Under — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after playing two straight Unders and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after playing three straight Unders. Eastern Michigan has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 17 games against non-conference opponents, Eastern Michigan has covered the point spread 14 times. Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning their last two games against conference rivals. This team relies on their spread rushing attack to move the football — they have generated 276 and 409 rushing yards in their last two games. But Georgia Southern has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in two straight games. They have out-rushed their last two opponents by +182 and +335 yards in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after out-rushing their last two opponents by at least +125 yards. But this Eagles’ offense is one-dimensional as they rank 127th in the FBS by averaging just 82.8 passing YPG. Georgia Southern is averaging 66 YPG below what their opponents typically allow per game. They will be facing an Eastern Michigan team that already has played a similar offense from Navy before having two weeks to prepare for this specific scheme. Lastly, Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games played on field turf.

FINAL TAKE: Eastern Michigan is extremely well-coached by Chris Creighton who gets the most out of his talent. With a strong defense with extra time to prepare for the Georgia Southern offense, expect another close game from this Eagles defense from the Mid-American Conference. 10* CFB Eastern Michigan-Georgia Southern ESPN Special with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (207) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (208). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (206) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (205). Fresno State (11-2) won the Mountain West Conference Championship with their 19-16 upset win at Boise State in the snow as a 1.5-point underdog two weeks ago. Arizona State (7-5) has won four of their last five games with their 41-40 win at Arizona as a 1.5-point favorite back on November 24th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Fresno State should build off the momentum from that victory in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have covered the points spread in 16 of their last 21 games after failing to score more than 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 20 points. That game finished below the 51.5 point total — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games after a game that finished Under the Total. This is a team that thrives on defense — they rank 2nd in the nation by allowing only 13.7 PPG while also ranking 17th in the FBS by giving up just 323.8 total YPG. Their defense travels as the Bulldogs are 5-2 on the road this season with an average winning margin of +15.3 PPG due to them only allowing 12.6 PPG away from home. This stout defense is a great complement to the Fresno State offense overseen by head coach Jeff Tedford who is considered an offensive guru and a quarterback whisperer with stints in the NFL and CFL following his coaching tenure at Cal. Senior quarterback Marcus McMaryion has passed for 3453 yards this season while posting an outstanding 25:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The coaching staff will be very familiar with the 3-3-5 defensive scheme they will see from Arizona State under defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales who came over from San Diego State which the Bulldogs compete against every year running the same defensive system. That is a good sign for a football team that has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference. Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games after a victory on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 25 games on the road after winning four or five of their last six games. The Sun Devils have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Arizona State offense will be without their most dangerous weapon in wide receiver N’Keal Harry who is sitting out this game to keep himself healthy for the NFL draft that he is leaving school early to enter. First-year college head coach Herm Edwards looks to be using this game more as an opportunity to get his younger players experience for next season than a crucial contest that he wants his team to win. Sophomore quarterback Dillon Sterling-Cole is likely to get time in this game for senior QB Manny Wilkins. Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing on a neutral field. The Sun Devils have struggled away from Tempe this season as they have lost four of their six games on the road wheel being out-gained by -85 net YPG. Furthermore, over their last three contests, Arizona State has been out-gained by -67.6 net YPG. The Sun Devils are vulnerable against the pass as they rank 82nd in the nation by allowing 238.7 passing YPG — and the Bulldogs rank 25th in the FBS by averaging 274.2 passing YPG. Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams outside the Pac-12 — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of December.

FINAL TAKE: Tedford is 6-3 in his nine opportunities to coach in bowl games — and his team will be motivated to not only knock off a school from a Power-Five conference while earning a twelfth win this season which would be the most in program history. The Sun Devils have not been very good away from home and it looks like Edwards is using this game to prepare for next season. 20* CFB Arizona State-Fresno State ABC-TV Special with the Fresno State Bulldogs (206) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (205). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (201) plus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (202). THE SITUATION: North Texas (9-3) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four games with their 24-21 win over UTSA as a 25-point favorite back on November 24th. Utah State (10-2) saw their ten-game winning streak snapped on that Saturday when they lost by a 33-24 score at Boise State as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN PLUS THE POINTS: I do not like the dynamic from which Utah State enters this game. They suffered a deflating loss to the Broncos that ruined their Mountain West championship aspirations. As it is, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when bouncing back from a loss on the road to a conference rival. And while Utah State has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The team is also without their head coach Matt Wells who left the program after that game to become the new head coach for Texas Tech. With interim head coach Frank Maile operating as a lame duck before Gary Andersen returns to the program to serve as the Aggies’ head coach again, it is questionable as to just how motivated this team will be for this game. Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in the month of December. The Aggies have benefited from a +0.92 net turnover margin per game which is 8th best in the nation — but they did not force a turnover and suffered a -2 net turnover margin in that loss to Boise State. Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after failing to force a turnover in their last game. Defense is also a concern for this team as they have allowed 471.1 total YPG which is over 85 YPG above their season average. Teams can pass on this team as they rank 84th in the nation by giving up 240.1 passing YPG. This is also a team that thrives at home with a dominant 35-9 mark at home over the years. Both of the Aggies’ losses were on the road this year where they were out-gained away from home by -47.8 net YPG. Additionally, Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. North Texas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 3 points or less against a Conference USA rival — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after winning two straight games against conference rivals. Furthermore, the Mean Green has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. North Texas may scare off some bettors considering that they have only covered the point spread once in their last eight games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Led by quarterback Matt Fine who has passed for over 3700 yards this season while posting a sterling 27:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, the Mean Green has generated 511 and 516 yards in each of their last two games. North Texas has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in two straight contests. Fine should find success against this Aggies pass defense as he leads an offense that ranks 11th in the nation by averaging 316.3 passing YPG. While the UNT pass defense is vulnerable, the Mean Green defense can make Utah State one-dimensional as they rank 15th in the nation by allowing only 113.5 rushing YPG. Lastly, North Texas has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against non-conference opponents.

FINAL TAKE: North Texas has reached a bowl game in each of the first two seasons under third-year head coach Seth Littrell — but they have yet to win that final game. The Mean Green should be very motivated to earth their first bowl win under Littrell while reaching the ten-win milestone this season. 25* CFB New Mexico Bowl Special Feature with the North Texas Mean Green (201) plus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (203) minus the points versus the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (204). THE SITUATION: Tulane (6-6) became bowl eligible by winning four of their last five games with their 29-28 victory over Navy on November 24th as a 5-point favorite. UL-Lafayette (7-6) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 1st in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game where they lost at Appalachian State by a 17.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: Tulane will be very excited to be playing in their first bowl game since 2014 — and their first postseason game under third-year head coach Willie Fritz. The Green Wave were inches away from being bowl eligible last season before getting stuff on the goal line in their upset bid against SMU leaving them at 5-7 and ailing to become bowl eligible. This moment has been a long time coming for this program that returned fourteen starters from last year’s team. Tulane has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a narrow win at home by 3 points or less. The Green Wave have lost three games this season decided by 7 points or less. And while they have not covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. This team has improved on offense since Justin McMillan took over at quarterback. The graduate transfer from LSU has throw ten touchdown passes in his last five games after completing 18 of 29 passes for 291 yards with three TD passes against the Midshipmen while adding another touchdown with 51 rushing yards in that victory. The Green Wave have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Tulane did not force a turnover in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to force at least one turnover in their last contest. This team led the American Athletic Conference by allowing just 5.4 Yards-Per-Play in conference games. They are particularly tough against the run as they ranked second in the AAC by allowing just 152.6 rushing YPG — and they held their opponents to only 3.95 Yards-Per-Carry. They held their opponents to 38 YPG below their offensive season average. Furthermore, the Green Wave have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. UL-Lafayette has covered the point spread in eight of their last ten games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. This is not a good matchup for this Ragin’ Cajuns team facing an opponent from a superior conference. UL-Lafayette relies on running the football so they will be playing into the strength of the Tulane defense — and they only average 208.0 passing YPG which is 89th in the FBS. The Ragin’ Cajun defense struggles to defend the run as they rank 107th in the nation by allowing 210.0 rushing YPG — and their opponents average 5.8 Yards-Per-Carry. They face a big challenge when facing this Green Wave offense that is 30th in the nation by averaging 208.3 rushing YPG. UL-Lafayette may be facing some new wrinkles as well after Fritz fired his offensive coordinator Doug Ruse after the Navy game. Alex Atkins will be calling the plays for this game. The Ragin’ Cajuns allowed their opponents to average 41 YPG above their offensive season average. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. And while they have played two straight games Under the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing two straight Unders.

FINAL TAKE: I like the dynamic this Tulane team has entering this game with the challenge of a new offensive coordinator helping to focus their attention as they play their first bowl game in years. UL-Lafayette usually is tapped to play in the New Orleans Bowl in the opening Saturday of the bowl season. This Green Wave is more battle-tested having played in an American Athletic Conference that is significantly better than the Sun Belt. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Game of the Year with the Tulane Green Wave (203) minus the points versus the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (204). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (103) plus the points versus the Army West Point Black Knights (104). THE SITUATION: Navy (3-9) enters their rivalry game coming off a 29-28 loss at Tulane as a 5-point underdog back on November 24th. Army (9-2) has won seven straight games with their 28-24 win over Colgate as an 11-point favorite back on November 17th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MIDSHIPMEN PLUS THE POINTS: Navy had dominated this series by winning fourteen straight meetings starting in 2002 but they have lost these last two encounters with their arch rival. This has been a lost season for head coach Ken Niumatalolu in his eleventh season with the Midshipmen. Expectations were certainly high that with nine returning starters (not uncommon for a service academy program) from last year’s 7-6 team that lost six of their last seven games that this year’s team would take a step back up. Instead, the rigors of playing in the American Athletic Conference has taken its toll on the win-loss record of this football team. Yet an upset win over the Black Knights would offer this team plenty of positive feelings going into next season. Senior Zach Abbey will be concluding his career this afternoon back at quarterback after initially being moved to wide receiver to start the season — and he should offer the team an emotional lift since he played the last time the Midshipmen won this rivalry game. Expect the strongest effort of the season from Niumatalolo’s team as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a loss on the road against a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after a loss by 6 points or less. Navy has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing eight of their last ten games. The Midshipmen are doing a good job of protecting the football as they have won the turnover battle in each of their last two games. Navy has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 road games after enjoying a +1 or better turnover margin in at least two straight games. Army had a 14-0 halftime lead over Colgate in their last game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 3 points in the first-half of their last game. The Black Knights have not allowed more than 241 yards of offense in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in at least two straight games. Furthermore, Army has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games in games with the Total set no higher than 42. Lastly, the Black Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games after a bye week(s) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing on a neutral field as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The last four games between these two teams have been decided by 7 points or less. Expect another close game between these two rivals. 10* CFB Army-Navy CBS-TV Special with the Navy Midshipmen (103) plus the points versus the Army West Point Black Knights (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Navy Midshipmen (103) and the Army West Point Black Knights (104). THE SITUATION: Navy (3-9) enters their rivalry game coming off a 29-28 loss at Tulane as a 5-point underdog back on November 24th. Army (9-2) has won seven straight games with their 28-24 win over Colgate as an 11-point favorite back on November 17th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These two teams have played 10 straight Unders — and there are a few fundamental reasons why that is the case. For starters, both teams run similar spread triple options — so the usual advantage that these teams enjoy during the regular season with facing opponents that are not as familiar with their unique offenses are gone in this matchup. Both these defenses practice against this offense every day. Second, both teams have extra weeks to prepare their defenses for the particular nuances of their opponent’s offense. In theory, this extra time could also be used to add a few wrinkles to the offenses. However, in practice, both these teams lack the personnel to all of the sudden start running the West Coast Offense (for example). Now, we cannot simply be zombies and automatically take the Under in each Army-Navy game. This year’s Total has dropped to the 40 point range which is the lowest number over those last ten encounters. Eventually, the Over will be the appropriate play. But when considering that five of the last six meetings between these two teams have not seen more than 38 combined points scored, I am still very comfortable taking the Under in this game. Army should slow down the Midshipmen rushing attack as they rank 12th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 106.5 rushing YPG. The Black Knights have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the month of December. Furthermore, Army has played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing with a bye week — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing on grass. Navy has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total in the month of December. Additionally, the Midshipmen have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Navy only scores 21.7 PPG when playing away from home — and they average just 310.4 total YPG on the road. Lastly, the Midshipmen have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams in cold temperatures (but no snow) with Philadelphia forecasting to have their temp in the 30s. 25* CFB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Navy Midshipmen (103) and the Army West Point Black Knights (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Northwestern Wildcats (321) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (322). THE SITUATION: Northwestern (8-4) has won three straight games with their 24-16 win over Illinois as a 16-point favorite last week. Ohio State (11-1) has won four straight games with their triumphant 62-39 upset win over Michigan as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: No one doubts the talent level with this Buckeyes team — but this team has been underachieving all season. The issues regarding Urban Meyer were a distraction for this team early on — but it just seems like the culture of this team has gone in the wrong direction considering their 29-point loss at Purdue along with a narrow victory at Maryland that might have been decided when the Terrapins decided to go for the win rather than the tie with a 2-point conversion attempt in overtime. Ohio State has much more talent than either of those teams — and they will be facing a Wildcats team that is more talented than either of those two Big Ten rivals. The Buckeyes played their best game of the season — or in many seasons — last week against their arch rival. The last time Ohio State was a home underdog was in 2011 when they hosted Wisconsin — and they had not been an underdog to the Wolverines since 2004. This was a team clearly motivated to make a statement. But emotional letdowns are common after big wins like that — and this Buckeyes’ team is particularly susceptible to inconsistency. Not only has Ohio State failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 20 points. Furthermore, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning their last four games. No tricks were saved on offense last week against the top statistical unit in the country — and Ohio State ripped the Michigan defense for 567 total yards while averaging 8.46 Yards-Per-Play. But the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP. Failure to play fundamental football has been the biggest weakness for this team this season — it is as if the players have stopped listening to the coaches. The Michigan game was probably an exception with all the players on notice — but this defense ranks 67th in the nation by allowing 398.8 total YPG despite being loaded with NFL talent. It is even worse when they play away from home as they are allowing 470.2 total YPG when playing on the road. Northwestern is battle-tested with a 3-point loss to Michigan and a 10-point loss to Notre Dame. The Wildcats play strong defense as they rank tied for 29th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 21.7 PPG — and that marks drop to a mere 17.0 PPG when this team is playing away from home where they are a perfect 5-0 this year. Under head coach Pat Fitzgerald, this team is 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games in conference play — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. This team is the epitome of dangerous underdogs given their strong fundamental play. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games as a dog with nine outright wins. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games as a double-digit underdog — and they have seven outright wins in those games. Northwestern has also covered the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog against Big Ten opponents with six of those games being where they pulled the upset.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio State needs a statement victory to overcome Oklahoma to reach the final four in the playoff race (assuming that Georgia does not upset Alabama). When in a similar situation in 2014, the Buckeyes responded by destroying Wisconsin by a 59-0 score. We had Ohio State in that game — but I don’t think this group can flip the switch the way this program could under Meyer a long four years ago. These two teams last played in late of October of last season where another uber-talented Buckeyes team only won by a 24-20 score. In this classic letdown spot, I look for Ohio State to struggle against a sound opponent. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Year with the Northwestern Wildcats (321) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (317) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (318). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (10-2) reached the Mountain West Conference Championship Game with their 31-13 win over San Jose State last Saturday as 32-point favorites. Boise State (10-2) matched them last week with their 33-24 win over Utah State as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Fresno State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread setback. The Bulldogs generated 515 yards of offense against the Spartans last week — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Led by quarterback Marcus McMaryion, Fresno State averages 282.8 passing YPG which is 23rd best in the nation. Pass defense is a vulnerability for the Broncos as they rank 79th in the nation by allowing 238.9 passing YPG. But where this Bulldogs team shines is on the defensive side of the football where they rank 2nd in the nation by allowing only 13.5 PPG — and they rank 17th in the nation by giving up 321.7 total YPG. Fresno State has been even stingier on the road as home teams are scoring just 12.0 PPG against them while averaging a mere 324.8 total YPG. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Additionally, Fresno State is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Fresno State has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. Boise State (10-2) has played two straight clean games when it comes to committing turnovers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after not committing a turnover in their last game. The Aggies passed for 363 yards last week in that loss — and the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after allowing at least 325 passing yards in their last game. Boise State has scored 78 combined points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. They get to host this game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games on their blue home field. Furthermore, not only have the Broncos failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in that range.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of a 24-17 upset win that Boise State pulled off back on November 9th as a 2-point underdog. After losing at home to San Diego State in October, the Broncos survived two games at home against the Bulldogs and BYU that were settled by one scoring possession before scoring with four (darn) seconds left in the game last week to pull away from Utah State. Look for Boise State’s good fortunes at home in close games to finally run out tonight against an opponent with an elite defense that will be motivated with double-revenge from not only this year but also losing in Boise in last year’s Mountain West Conference Championship Game. 25* CFB Saturday Night Special Feature with the Fresno State Bulldogs (317) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (320) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (319). THE SITUATION: Clemson (12-0) remained undefeated last week with their 56-35 win over South Carolina as a 25.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (7-5) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with their 24-3 loss at Miami as a 6-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers played their worst defensive season of the year last week against the Gamecocks as they allowed 600 yards of offense. 510 of those passing yards were in the air — but the Under is 3-0-1 in Clemson’s last 4 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. That game flew way over the 58.5 point total — and the Tigers have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Head coach Dabo Swinney will be demanding better play out of his defense the still ranks 7th in the nation by allowing 283.2 total YPG — and that unit ranks 4th in the FBS by giving up only 14.0 PPG. This defense played even better when they play away from home as they are allowing only 13.4 PPG along with just 262.6 total YPG on the road. But who many points with this powerful Clemson offense put up tonight as they approach being four-touchdown favorites after generating an incredible 744 yards of offense last week. Some insight to that question is that the Tigers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Additionally, the Tigers have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of December. Pittsburgh has seen the Under go 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is also 7-2-1 in their last 10 gamers after a point spread loss. The Under is also 14-6-1 in their last 21 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Panthers are run-dependent as they rank 17th in the nation by averaging 232.7 rushing YPG. But they will be running into one of the best defensive lines in the nation as Clemson ranks 2nd in the country by giving up only 84.8 rushing YPG. That will force the Panthers to rely on the passing arm of sophomore quarterback Kenny Pickett — but he is overseeing an offense that ranks 120th in the nation by averaging 153.4 passing YPG. Pitt has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Clemson has held six of their twelve opponents to 10 points or less this season. With the Panthers being so one-dimensional, it is difficult seeing them score many points tonight. 10* CFB Clemson-Pittsburgh ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (320) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (317) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (318). Georgia (11-1) has won five straight games with their 45-21 win over Georgia Tech as a 17-point favorite last week. Alabama (12-0) remained undefeated with their 52-21 win over Auburn last Saturday as a 25.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia is one of the few teams that take the field with the Crimson Tide with the confidence that they can pull off the victory. Thirteen starters return from the team that went into halftime of the National Championship Game last January with a 13-0 lead before losing that game in heartbreaking fashion in overtime by a 26-23 score. Alabama enjoys a significant talent advantage against most football teams in the country — but the Bulldogs are one of the few teams that can hang with their high-level players given their strong recruiting classes. Certainly, this is the game that this Georgia has wanted to play over the last eleven months. The Bulldogs enter this game with confidence as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a win by at least three touchdowns. Georgia held the Yellow Jackets to just 219 yards of offense — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing no more than 275 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 6 straight games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of December. Alabama likely does have the same level of urgency to win this game against a revenge-minded Georgia team. The likelihood is that the Crimson Tide can still lose this game but still make into the College Football Playoff just as they did last year with one loss. Alabama did not commit a turnover last week in the Iron Bowl — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after not committing a turnover in their last game. And while the Crimson Tide have scored 111 combined points in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 42 points in two straight games. Auburn was not able to challenge them in the passing game as they only managed 153 passing yards — but Bama has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last game. Alabama has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 encounters with the Bulldogs.

FINAL TAKE: This Crimson Tide team looks invincible right now — but their non-conference schedule was light with Louisville being the high-profile game, in theory. LSU is a step below in class and Auburn took a step back as well. This is, by far, the biggest challenge this team has faced all season in facing Georgia. Expect a close game. 10* CFB Alabama-Georgia CBS-TV Special with the Georgia Bulldogs (317) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (309) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (310). THE SITUATION: Central Florida (11-0) continued their undefeated season last week with their 38-10 thrashing of South Florida on the road laying 16.5 points. Memphis (8-4) has won four straight games with their 52-31 win over Houston as a 9.5-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: It was a Pyrrhic victory for the Knights last week with their third-year starting quarterback Mckenzie Milton suffering a season-ending knee injury. While UCF owns the nation’s longest winning streak, Milton started at quarterback in all twenty-four of those games. Head coach Josh Heupel now turns to redshirt freshman Darriel Mack to lead the team to the American Athletic Conference championship this afternoon. While the 6’3, 230-lb phenom oozes with physical talent, he is a complete unknown regarding his mental and emotional ability to handle the pressure of the moment. Mack completed only 5 of 14 passes for 81 yards in relief last week against the Bulls. Central Florida earned the right to host this game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as the favorite laying no more than 3 points. The Knights have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. There are two other areas of concern I have for this team. First, UCF has been very fortunate with the bouncing ball as they rank 2nd in the nation by averaging a +1.45 net turnover margin per game. Milton was excellent at protecting the football in both the passing and running game. Mack’s inexperience combined with the pressure of the moment may lead to a visit from the Regression Gods regarding this very favorable turnover ratio. Second, the Knights are very vulnerable in their run defense as they rank 109th in the nation by allowing 211.6 rushing YPG. Enter Darrell Henderson and the vaunted Memphis rushing attack. The Tigers are 5th in the nation by averaging 275.9 rushing YPG. Not only can this Memphis team move the chains by running the football but this can also keep their defense fresh. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win over a conference rival. They generated 610 yards of offense last week against the Cougars defense — and they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And in their last 21 games in conference competition, Memphis is 15-5-1 ATS. Together, these team trends produce our specific 60-20-1 ATS combined angle for this situation.

FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have lost twelve straight meetings with UCF including losing by a narrow 31-30 score earlier this year as a 4.5-point underdog to the Knights. The loss that stung, even more, was when they surrendered a late interception that served as the winning score in a 62-55 loss to UCF in last year’s American Athletic Conference Championship Game that was also played in Orlando. Memphis’ running game helps them play this team as tough as anyone during their 23-game winning streak. But with the injury to Milton, the Tigers have a great opportunity to earn some well-deserved measure of revenge against this team that has been a thorn in their side for years. 20* CFB Memphis-Central Florida ABC-TV Special with the Memphis Tigers (309) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (334) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (333). THE SITUATION: This game was rescheduled from a couple of weeks ago that was canceled due to the fires in northern California. California (7-4) enters the same having won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 33-21 win over Colorado as a 10.5-point favorite last week. Stanford (7-4) has won two straight games with their 49-42 win at UCLA as a 7-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Cardinal has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a win over a conference rival. Stanford averaged 7.01 Yards-Per-Play last week against the Bruins — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 6.75 YPP. The Cardinal has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 42 points in their last contest. But the concern for head coach David Shaw has to be his defense after UCLA shredded them for 528 yards of offense. Stanford has failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after allowing at least 525 yards. The Cardinal is just 3-2 on the road this year — but they are being out-gained by -106.2 net YPG due to their defense that is allowing home teams to average a whopping 482.0 total YPG. Cal should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. The Bears defeated the Buffaloes last week despite generating only 211 yards of offense — but they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Cal is 4-2 on their home field this season — and they have are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games on their home field. The Golden Bears have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog getting no more than 7 points. Furthermore, Cal has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Together, these team trends produce our specific 70-19-1 ATS combined angle for this situation.

FINAL TAKE: This is the best team at Cal in their last three seasons — and that makes this the best opportunity for this team to end the eight-game losing streak they have endured against their arch-rivals across the bay. Stanford only won this rivalry game last year by a 17-14 margin despite playing the game at home in Palo Alto as a 13.5-point favorite. Don’t be surprised if the Golden Bears pull the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 10* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the California Golden Bears (334) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (333). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (307) plus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (308). THE SITUATION: These two teams meet again in Murfreesboro for the second straight week after Middle Tennessee (8-4) won last Saturday’s game by a 27-3 score in an upset where they were 3-point underdogs. UAB (9-3) travels back looking to avenge that loss and to win the Conference USA Championship Game.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: UAB had their spot in this championship game clinched before playing last week — but winning that game would have ensured that they hosted the conference championship game back in Birmingham. Perhaps head coach Bill Clark preferred to hold back some plays last week and ensure the opportunity to face these Blue Raiders again this week even if it meant playing on their home field? Either way, it looks pretty evident that Clark had the Blazers take their foot off the proverbial gas pedal after falling behind by a 13-3 score at halftime in that game. UAB managed only 89 yards of offense in that game. Clark is an outstanding coach who has pulled off a minor miracle to get this team to the conference championship game despite going on a two-year hiatus four years ago. Clark was rewarded on Friday with a big contract extension that makes him the highest paid football coach in Conference USA. He should have his team ready to play a great game. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after suffering an upset loss by at least 17 points despite being favored in that game. UAB is also 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up loss as well as being 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a loss by at least 20 points — so this group has proven themselves to be very resilient under Clark’s leadership. Furthermore, the Blazers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 9 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss by at least three touchdowns to their opponent. UAB has lost their last two games with both those contests being played on the road. But the Blazers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after losing their last two contests on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after suffering two straight losses on the road by double-digits. UAB should get their offense going this week — they rank 30th in the nation by averaging 207.5 rushing YPG. They are 20-8-2 ATS in their last 30 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game — and they are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. But where this team should really see improvements in this rematch is on the other side of the football where they rank 8th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 287.2 total YPG. UAB is also 9th in the FBS by allowing just 16.7 PPG — and they out-gain their home hosts when playing on the road by +46.7 net YPG. This stout defense has helped the Blazers cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Middle Tennessee may not be able to prevent themselves from suffering from a bit of a letdown after winning easily last week to earn their opportunity to win the conference championship. As it is, the Blue Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home by at least 17 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset win as an underdog. Middle Tennessee did not commit a turnover last week but that might not bode well for them now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game where they did not commit a turnover. The Blue Raiders get the opportunity to host this game at their Floyd Stadium where they are 5-0 this season — but they are only out-gaining their visitors by +35.8 net YPG. Middle Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of December. And in their last 9 expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Blue Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: I suspect that Clark kept a few tricks up his sleeve with the expectation that this rematch would be occurring this week. He will have a very eager and motivated team looking to redeem themselves from the thumping they received last week. It will be difficult for the Blue Raiders to maintain the intensity and sense of urgency that they displayed last week. 25* CFB Game of the Year with the UAB Blazers (307) plus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (311) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (312). THE SITUATION: Texas (9-3) has won three straight games with their 24-17 win at Kansas as a 15.5-point favorite last Friday. Oklahoma (11-1) has won six straight games after their 59-56 win at West Virginia as a 3-point/3.5-point favorite last Friday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: With Michigan losing last week, the Sooners are in a great position to reach the College Football Playoffs again this year if they can defeat their arch-rivals. But that pressure will be very heavy this afternoon. I know there are pundits on ESPN that describe the Oklahoma offense as the best one ever in College Football. Those dudes need to get a grip. Kyler Murray passed for 364 yards last week against the Mountaineers defense — but the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Additionally, Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played on a neutral field — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record. The Sooners are playing with revenge on their mind with their lone loss this season being that 48-45 barnburner back on October 6th where they were 7-point favorites. But Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when looking to avenge a loss where they surrendered at least 42 points. And that is the rub: this Sooners’ defense is a mess. Head coach Lincoln Riley fired his defensive coordinator Mike Stoops after that game — but the defense has not improved. In fact, Oklahoma has allowed 623 YPG over their last three contests which is -182 net YPG worse than what they were allowing before that stretch. The Sooners have won their last three games by an average winning margin of 6 PPG — but they were favored by an average of 18 PPG so this defense has them significantly underachieving. Texas is 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 games against teams with winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams playing on a neutral field. Head coach Tom Herman should be able to oversee an offensive game plan that will be even more effective than the one that led to their victory in the first incarnation of the Red River Rivalry this season. Quarterback Sam Ehlinger has thrown 23 touchdown passes with only four interceptions. The Longhorns have lost three times this season with the losing margins being by just 5, 3 and 1 point. And Herman simply thrives when his teams are playing the role of the underdog as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 14 games as the dog which includes ten outright victories.

FINAL TAKE: Texas has covered the point spread in the last 6 meetings between these two teams — and the last five meetings have been decided by 7 points or less. The pressure to make the playoffs and the bad defense will likely lead to this being another close game. 10* CFB Texas-Oklahoma ABC-TV Special with the Texas Longhorns (311) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (313) and the Appalachian State Mountaineers (314). THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (7-5) reached the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game with their 31-28 upset win at UL-Monroe last Saturday as a 1.5-point underdog. Appalachian State (9-2) has won four games in a row with their 21-10 win over Troy last week as a 12-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a double-digit win over a conference rival. Appalachian State held the Trojans to just 223 yards of offense while winning the rushing battle by a decisive 139 net yards. The Mountaineers have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after out-rushing their last opponent by at least 125 yards. Appalachian State’s spread option offensive attack defines the program — but that aspect of their game should not distract from the outstanding defense that head coach Scott Satterfield has overseen in his sixth year with the program. Five starters returned to a defense that was tied for 21st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 20.2 PPG — and they also ranked 29th in total defense by allowing only 342.5 total YPG. This year’s unit has been even better as they rank 5th in the nation by allowing just 15.4 PPG — and they also rank 4th in the FBS by giving up only 278.2 total YPG. The Mountaineers are even stingier playing at home where they give up only 11.6 PPG along with just 271.4 total YPG — and over their last three games, this group is allowing a mere 11.3 PPG along with 259.7 total YPG. Appalachian State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total with the number set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. UL-Lafayette raced out to a 24-21 halftime lead against the Warhawks last week before hanging out to win by a 31-28 score. The Ragin’ Cajuns have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win by 3 points or less — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after scoring at least 24 points in the first-half of their last contest. UL-Lafayette has scored at least 31 points in three straight games — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games. Furthermore, the Ragin Cajuns have seen the Under go 17-8-1 in their last 26 games in Sun Belt Conference play — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of December. This championship game is a rematch of the October 20th meeting between these two teams that the Mountaineers won by a 27-17 score in their Kidd Brewer Stadium. The Ragin’ Cajuns did a pretty good job of slowing down the Appalachian State offense as they generated only 364 total yards which were over 118 yards below their season offensive average when playing at home. UL-Lafayette has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when looking to avenge a loss on the road to their opponent.

FINAL TAKE: The Ragin Cajuns should play even better on defense in this rematch with the benefit of their experience facing this offensive scheme in October. UL-Lafayette ranks 104th in the nation by allowing 443.3 total YPG but they have allowed over -45 YPG less than that over their last three games. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* CFB Conference Championships Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (313) and the Appalachian State Mountaineers (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (329) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (330). THE SITUATION: Marshall (8-3) has won three straight games with their 28-25 win at Florida International as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. Virginia Tech (5-6) comes off a 34-31 win in overtime at home against Virginia as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD PLUS THE POINTS: I hate this situation for the Hokies. This game is only being played because Virginia Tech’s game with East Carolina in September was canceled. The Hokies reached out to Marshall to arrange for this possible game if it was necessary for them to become bowl eligible — and with their upset win over Virginia last week, they need one more victory to reach a bowl game this year. So this is all happening for Virginia Tech to play in one more game — but that can also lead to plenty of pressure on this team that has underachieved all season. Frankly, the Hokies were very fortunate to earn the win over the Cavaliers last week. They scored on a fumble recovery for a touchdown early in that game to seize a 14-0 lead yet needed a second fumble recovery in the end zone to tie the game with under two minutes to go to force overtime which they did win. But Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Hokies have been uninspired at home this season where they are just 2-4 while being outscored by -4.9 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. What has happened to the Bud Foster-coached defense? They are allowing 435.4 total YPG this season which is 96th in the nation — and they are allowing 472.0 total YPG over their last three games. They do face a non-power conference opponent this afternoon — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against Conference USA opponents. Marshall is bowl bound with their eight wins — so one might question what they have at stake in this game. But head coach Doc Holliday will have his team licking their chops with this opportunity to knock off one of the heavyweight programs in their geographical region — there is a reason he agreed to take this game midyear. His teams have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games as an underdog. The Thundering Herd have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of December. Furthermore, not only is Marshall 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games against teams outside Conference USA but they are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams from the ACC. The Thundering Herd are 4-1 on the road this year with an average winning margin of +6.6 PPG. Together, these team trends produce our specific 55-14-2 ATS combined angle for this situation.

FINAL TAKE: This extra game gives Marshall a chance to reach ten wins this season. All the pressure is on the Hokies — but the Herd gets to relish in their role as the spoiler. Don’t be surprised if they pull the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 10* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Marshall Thundering Herd (329) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (305) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (306). THE SITUATION: Utah (9-3) has won three straight games with their 35-27 win over BYU last Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite. Washington (9-3) has also won three in a row after they upset Washington State on the road last Friday as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES PLUS THE POINTS: In head coach Kyle Whittingham I trust to have his team ready to play this game. Utah has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. The team has handled the adversity of losing starting quarterback Tyler Huntley and starting running back Zack Moss to season-ending injuries. During their three-game winning streak, the Utes are scoring 32.3 PPG while averaging 393.3 total YPG operating the Air-Raid spread offense under second-year offensive coordinator Troy Taylor. Utah has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against Pac-12 opponents — and they are also 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Utes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral field. This Utah team is looking to avenge a 21-7 loss to the Huskies back on September 15th. Utah is very tough under Whittingham when motivated by revenge. The Utes have covered the point spread in 6 straight games when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. Furthermore, Utah has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when avenging a loss by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they failed to score at least 14 points. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Furthermore, while Washington gained 487 yards against the Cougars last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against Pac-12 rivals — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games as the favorite, Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Huskies were a dark horse National Championship contender for me to begin the season but the season-ending injury to left tackle Trey Adams has hampered their offensive line. Washington is just 3-3 away from home this season with losses at Oregon, California and in Atlanta against an Auburn team that has also disappointed. The Huskies may win this game — but I look for the Utes to be a very difficult out. 10* CFB Utah-Washington Fox-TV Special with the Utah Utes (305) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the Washington Huskies (306). THE SITUATION: Utah (9-3) has won three straight games with their 35-27 win over BYU last Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite. Washington (9-3) has also won three in a row after they upset Washington State on the road last Friday as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Washington held the powerful Cougars offense to only 237 total yards in an outstanding defensive effort — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Huskies were one of my dark horse candidates to win the National Championship this season in large part because they returned nine starters from a stout group that was 5th in the nation by allowing only 16.1 PPG while ranking 8th in the FBS by holding their opponents to just 298.8 total YPG. This year’s defense ranks 8th in the FBS by allowing 16.5 PPG while also ranking 13th in the nation by limiting their opponents to 311.3 total YPG — so this group has only a slight decline in their outstanding numbers. What has held this Washington team back has been a disappointing offense that is scoring only 28.0 PPG (tied for 75th in the nation) after averaging 36.2 PPG last season with quarterback Jake Browning and running back Myles Gaskin as juniors. The offensive line has taken a step back this season with the unit suffering a big loss with the season-ending injury to senior left tackle Trey Adams who was projected as a potential top-ten pick in the NFL draft. The Huskies did generate 487 yards against the Cougars last week — but they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The formula for success for head coach Chris Petersen’s team is winning the war in the trenches. They have out-rushed their last three opponents by at least 100 yards — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after out-rushing their last three opponents by at least 100 yards. Washington has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their 10 games Under the Total as the favorite. Utah has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing on the road after a victory on their home field. Furthermore, the Utes have played 20 of their last 28 road games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Utah only gained 296 yards of offense against the Cougars but benefited from a 27-yard interception that they returned for a touchdown. The Utes have an elite defense that allows only 19.3 PPG (17th in the nation) — and they rank 15th in the FBS by only allowing 315.8 total YPG. Utah has the nation’s 5th best rushing defense that holds their opponents to only 100.3 rushing YPG — led by defensive line coach Gary Andersen who was a steal of a hire by head coach Kyle Whittingham after his stint at Oregon State soured last season. This is a rematch of the Huskies’ 21-7 victory over the Utes back on September 15th. Utah had junior Tyler Huntley under center for that game along with junior Zack Moss in their backfield — but both leaders on offense have since suffered season-ending injuries. For this rematch, the Utes will be using redshirt freshman Jason Shelley under center. While he has played well, he is likely a step back from Huntley who led an offense that only generated 261 yards with the one score. The defense did limit the Huskies to just 327 yards in that initial game — and I expect another gritty defensive performance. Utah has played 31 of their last 48 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Utah knows they cannot get into a high-scoring affair with the Huskies given the injuries they have suffered on offense. This Washington team only scores 22.2 PPG in their six games away from home — so this game shapes up to be a low-scoring contest. 25* CFB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the Washington Huskies (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (303) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (304). Northern Illinois (7-5) limps into the Mid-American Conference Championship Game with their 28-21 upset loss at Western Michigan back on November 20th as a 6.5-point favorite. Buffalo (10-2) clinched their opportunity to win the conference championship with a 44-14 win at Bowling Green last Friday as a 16-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Northern Illinois has suffered two straight upset losses in a row as their loss to the Broncos was preceded by a 13-7 upset loss at home to Miami (OH) as a 6.5-point favorite. But because the Huskies raced out to a 6-0 record in conference play, the team was in firm control of winning the MAC West Division despite then losing their last two games. There is no better way for Rod Carey’s team to erase the memory of these last two setbacks then by winning this game and winning their conference title. This team returned fourteen starters from last year’s group that finished 8-5. This is the team’s first trip back to Ford Field in Detroit to play in this game in the last three years. As usual, this is a battle-tested team that played Utah at home while also traveling to play Iowa, BYU and Florida State in their non-conference schedule. They should play very well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a loss by 7 points or less against a conference opponent. Northern Illinois did allow 285 passing yards to Western Michigan in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. The Huskies are led by their outstanding defense that ranks 26th in the nation by allowing only 344.0 total YPG. They rank 13th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 107.0 rushing YPG. Northern Illinois has only allowed 94 rushing yards in each of their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two straight games. The Huskies are due for some better luck when it comes to the bouncing ball that often determines turnovers as they have endured a -2 or worse net turnover margin in three straight games. But Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing the turnover battle in three straight games. Moving forward, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games in the month of November. Buffalo raced out to a 34-7 halftime lead over Bowling Green last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after holding at least a 24-point halftime lead in their last game. The Bulls are led by one of the best offensive lines in the country that helped them churn out 332 rushing yards against the Falcons meager defensive line (as we predicted when taking Buffalo in that game) — but this team has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 300 yards in their last game. The Bulls held the Bowling Green offense to only 58 rushing yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last contest. But run defense is an issue for this team as their opponents are averaging 169.5 rushing YPG this season which is 74th in the nation. On paper, the Northern Illinois offense looks weak as they rank 124th in the FBS by averaging only 318.0 total YPG — but that mark rises over 50 YPG to a 369.0 total YPG mark in conference play. This is Buffalo’s third straight game away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when playing on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: Northern Illinois is in a better position to win this game given their experience in this game along with their brutal non-conference schedule and the extra days they have had to rest and prepare for this showdown. Their defense should frustrate a Bulls’ offense that ranks last in the MAC in Red Zone offense. This is the biggest football game for this Buffalo team perhaps in program history — they have not even played in a bowl game since 2013. 25* CFB Underdog of the Month with the Northern Illinois Huskies (303) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah State Aggies (181) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (182). THE SITUATION: Utah State (10-1) enters their final game of the regular season coming off a 29-24 win at Colorado State as a 30.5-point favorite. Boise State (9-2) enters this game coming off a 45-14 win at New Mexico as a 21-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES PLUS THE POINTS: The close call with the Rams should get the attention of this team. Those 29 points were the second-fewest that Utah State has scored all season — and two of their touchdowns were scored on defense. The Aggies are second in the nation by scoring 49.3 PPG but they only had the ball for 17:55 minutes in that game against Colorado State. The weather did play a role in that contest — but that close call will help head coach Matt Wells communicate that his team can take nothing for granted tonight. Utah State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Aggies have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up victory. Utah State has been very good on the road this year where their only loss was a 7-point loss at East Lansing against Michigan State in their opening game of the season. The Aggies are 4-1 away from home this year while outscoring their hosts by +14.0 PPG. Utah State needs to play better on defense this week after allowing 506 yards to Colorado State last week. The Rams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Utah State ranks 34th in the nation by allowing only 22.1 PPG. The Total is set in the high-60s for this game — and the Aggies have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Boise State had only scored 45 combined points in their previous two games at home against San Diego State and Fresno State before traveling to Albuquerque to face the Lobos last week. The Broncos are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Boise State held New Mexico and their run-based spread offense to just 103 passing yards (on just 14 pass attempts). The Broncos’ previous five opponents had generated at least 242 passing yards with that lowest number being from a run-oriented Air Force team that averaged 15.1 Yards-Per-Attempt in the air. Boise State allows 226.9 passing YPG which is just 63rd in the nation — and that likely spells trouble when now facing quarterback Jordan Love who leads an offense that is 22nd in the nation by averaging 282.1 passing YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after not allowing more than 125 passing yards in their last game. Boise State enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin in that win over the Lobos after not committing a turnover in that game. But the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after a game where they did not commit a turnover. Boise State has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on their blue field at home. And in their last 19 games against teams with a winning record, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: The winner of this game advances to the Mountain West Conference Championship Game — so the stakes could not be higher. The Aggies also will have revenge on their minds after getting blown out by the Broncos last year by a 41-14 score. Eighteen starters returned from that team. Wells’ teams in the past could not win close games — they entered this season having lost their last eight games decided by one scoring possession. But after that opening loss to Michigan State, Utah State has won their only two games decided by one score with the experience of this team finally paying off. Don’t be surprised if this team pulls the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 25* CFB Saturday ESPN Bailout Game of the Year with the Utah State Aggies (181) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (182). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (208) minus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (207). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (6-4) saw their five-game winning streak snapped last week with their 24-10 loss at Texas as a 1-point underdog. Kansas State (5-6) has won two in a row after their 21-6 upset win against Texas Tech as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO LAY THE POINTS WITH THE CYCLONES: Iowa State should rebound with a strong effort on Senior Night. They have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. And while Iowa State only generated 210 yards of offense, they are then 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game — and they are also 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 games after failing to gain at least 20 points in their last contest. Now this team returns home where they are 4-1 this season while outgaining their opponents by +61.0 net YPG. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, Matt Campbell’s team has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points — and this tightens to them covering six of their last seven games when laying more than 10 points but no more than two touchdowns. Kansas State can be a dangerous underdog under head coach Bill Snyder — but that rarely extends for two straight weeks. The Wildcats ave failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win as an underdog — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after an upset victory over a conference rival as an underdog getting at least 6 points. Furthermore, Kansas State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 0-4 this year with an average losing margin of -17.5 PPG due to a defense that allowed 34.2 PPG along with 499.5 total YPG. Together, these team trends produce our specific 112-34-3 ATS combined angle for this situation.

FINAL TAKE: Some might argue that Iowa State has little to play for tonight after they saw their chances to play for the Big 12 Championship next week fall by the wayside with their loss to the Longhorns. Of course, these same pundits will talk about relative motivations for winning their bowl game next month. The fact is that the Cyclones would love to end their ten-game losing streak to the Wildcats with their last victory in this series coming all the way back in 2007. Iowa State lost a 20-19 heartbreaker to Kansas State in Manhattan last year — look for them to win by double-digits to earn some revenge. 10* CFB Kansas State-Iowa State FS1 Special with the Iowa State Cyclones (208) minus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (207). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (146) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (145). THE SITUATION: Miami (6-5) snapped a four-game losing streak last Saturday with their 38-14 win at Virginia Tech as a 6.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (7-4) has won four games in a row with their 34-13 win at Wake Forest as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS THE POINTS: Miami has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a win by at least 17 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 27 games after not allowing more than 20 points — and this includes them covering the point spread in nine of these last eleven situations. Furthermore, Miami has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing four of their last five games. Head coach Mark Richt should be able to have his team very motivated to avenge a 24-12 loss at Pittsburgh last season as a 12-point favorite which ruined their perfect season and College Playoff aspirations. The Hurricanes get this rematch in South Beach where they are 4-1 with an average winning margin of +24.2 net PPG and out-gaining these opponents by +193.8 net YPG. While Miami’s offense comes to life at home, it is their defense that really shines as they limit their guests to just 14.8 PPG along with a mere 216.8 total YPG. Pittsburgh (7-4) may be caught looking ahead to the ACC Championship Game next week against Clemson. And after a cold few weeks in Pennsylvania, this Panthers team may be in for a shock playing in the still warm Florida weather. As it is, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning at least four straight games. Pittsburgh is also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. And while the Panthers have generated 470 and 654 yards of offense in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 450 yards in two straight games. Pitt plays their third game on the road in their last four contests where they are just 2-3 while being out-gained by -46.2 net YPG. The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 road games when favored in the 3.5 to 7 point range.

FINAL TAKE: With Pittsburgh looking ahead to Clemson, Miami should be very motivated to exact some revenge from their loss last season with this being Senior Day. 10* CFB Pittsburgh-Miami ESPN Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (146) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (189) and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (190). THE SITUATION: UAB (9-2) looks to bounce-back from a 41-20 loss at Texas A&M last Saturday as a 17-point underdog. Middle Tennessee (7-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with their step up in class against a team from the SEC last week in their 34-23 loss at Kentucky as a 16.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the Blue Raiders defense for their loss to the Wildcats as they held Kentucky to just 324 yards of offense. A -2 net turnover margin played a critical role in deciding that game. The Under is 7-1-1 in Middle Tennessee’s last 9 games after a straight-up loss. The Blue Raiders surrendered 203 rushing yards to Kentucky in that game — but the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Senior quarterback Brent Stockstill did pass for 293 yards in that game — but the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. Now Middle Tennessee returns home where they are allowing only 21.0 PPG which is 6.2 PPG lower than their season average. The Under is 8-1-1 in the Blue Raiders’ last 10 games at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Middle Tennessee has also played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 49.5 to 52 point range. UAB has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. This team did surrender 41 points to the Aggies last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. UAB holds their home hosts to just 19.0 PPG along with only 294.2 total YPG when playing on the road. But the Blazers see their 31.9 PPG scoring margin for the season drop to just 26.6 PPG when playing away home. UAB has played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total. Furthermore, the Blazers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against fellow Conference USA opponents.

FINAL TAKE: UAB has clinched a spot in the Conference USA championship game next week — and they could face this Blue Raiders team again next week if they lose this game while FIU loses at Marshall (as now a home dog). The Blazers may hold back a trick or two on offense because of this possibility. UAB won last year’s game by a 25-23 score with that total set in the 55.5 range. Expect another lower-scoring game. 25* CFB Conference USA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (189) and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (190). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Liberty Flames (180) minus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (179). THE SITUATION: Liberty (4-6) has lost three straight games with their 53-0 loss at Auburn last week. New Mexico State (3-8) has lost four of their last five contests with their 45-10 loss at BYU last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FLAMES MINUS THE POINTS: Liberty returns home to close out their season where they are 3-1 this year. The Flames should respond with a strong effort under seven-year head coach Turner Gill. Liberty has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Flames managed only 134 yards of offense against the Tigers defense — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. Liberty has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. And while Auburn rolled up 531 yards of offense against them, the Flames have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. New Mexico State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread setback. Furthermore, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss by at least 20 points. Additionally, not only has New Mexico State failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score at least 20 points but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 20 points. They stay on the road where they are just 1-5 this season while being outscored by -24.7 net PPG. They are allowing their hosts to score 44.3 PPG while generating over 500 YPG. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. Together, these team trends produce our specific 71-15 ATS combined angle for this situation.

FINAL TAKE: Liberty will have the extra motivation to avenge an upset loss to this New Mexico State team back on October 6th where they fell by a 49-41 score. The Aggies score only 19.7 PPG on the road so it will be difficult for them to keep up the pace in this rematch. It is hard to see what the motivation for this New Mexico State team will be either as they play out the string of this season. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Liberty Flames (180) minus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (179). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (165) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (166). THE SITUATION: Georgia Tech (7-4) has won four straight games with their 30-27 win over Virginia last week as a 6.5-point favorite. Georgia (10-1) has won four in a row as well with their 66-27 win over UMass as a 41-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YELLOW JACKETS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia Tech is looking to avenge an ugly 38-7 loss to the Bulldogs last season. That was just the second time in the last fifteen meetings between these two teams that the game was decided by more than two touchdowns in this rivalry game. The Yellow Jackets usually play very well in Athens where they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Georgia. Georgia Tech is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a straight-up win. And while the Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 road games after covering point spread expectations in five or six of their last seven contests. Additionally, Georgia Tech is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams outside the ACC. Georgia may get caught looking ahead to their rematch of the National Championship Game with Alabama next week in the SEC Championship Game. As it is, they may be due for a letdown. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 41 home games are winning their previous three games. This is Georgia’s third straight game at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 120 home games after playing at least their last two games at home. The Bulldogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after winning their last two games at home. And while Georgia has covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Together, these team trends produce our specific 128-45-4 ATS combined angle for this situation.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia used to attempt to schedule a team that ran an offense similar to the spread triple option that they will see from Paul Johnson’s team today — but they have not had that opportunity this season. The road team is 17-4-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings between these two teams. Expect a close game once again between these two rivals with the Yellow Jackets much more invested in this contest. 10* CFB Big Dog Surprise with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (165) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (166). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (214) minus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (213). THE SITUATION: Tulane (5-6) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Thursday with their 48-17 loss at Houston as a 7.5-point underdog. Navy (3-8) snapped their seven-game losing streak with their 37-29 win over Tulsa last Saturday as 5-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: Tulane has failed to cover the point spread in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two contests. The Green Wave is also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. Now, this Tulane team returns home where they are outscoring their visitors by +7.4 PPG while out-gaining these opponents by +46.5 net YPG. The Green Wave have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 home games again teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, Tulane has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games when favored in the 3.5 to 7.5 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. The Green Wave are doing a good job of implementing head coach Willie Fritz’s run-first spread offense as they rank 25th in the nation by averaging 215.5 rushing YPG. This ground game should have plenty of success against the faltering Midshipmen defense that ranks 92nd in the nation by allowing 194.5 rushing YPG. It has been a lost season for this Navy team that returned only nine starters from a team that dropped six of their last seven games in the regular season last year. With this group not eligible for a bowl with just three wins, this team may be looking ahead for their rivalry game with Army. As it is, the Midshipmen are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Navy has been a disaster on the road this season where they are 0-6 with an average losing margin of -20.3 net PPG. They are also being out-gained by -154.1 net YPG in these six road games. The Midshipmen have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games. Navy has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Tulane needs this victory to become bowl eligible for the first time in Fritz’s three years with the program. They are also playing with revenge on their mind after losing to the Midshipmen last year by a 23-21 score. The Green Wave did limit Navy to just 194 rushing yards in that game as they contained their spread triple option to averaging just 3.73 Yards-Per-Carry. I like that Tulane had an extra two days of rest and preparation for this unique offense. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Tulane Green Wave (214) minus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (213). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (142) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (141). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (8-2) looks to bounce-back from a 45-41 upset loss at Oklahoma State last week as a 6-point favorite. Oklahoma (10-1) has won five straight games with their 55-40 victory over Kansas last week as a 35-point favorite. The winner of this game earns the right to play Texas next week in the Big 12 Championship Game.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: West Virginia had won three straight games before being upset by the Cowboys — but Dana Holgorsen’s team can redeem themselves from that loss with a win tonight. Led by Heisman Trophy candidate Will Grier at quarterback, the Mountaineers have a powerful offense that ranks 10th in the nation by averaging 502.0 total YPG. West Virginia has scored at least 41 points in four straight games and they generated 553 yards of offense last week against Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. They return home where they are a perfect 5-0 while scoring 46.0 PPG and generating 540.2 total YPG. Grier leads a passing attack that is 5th in the nation by averaging 340.0 passing YPG — and he should have plenty of success against this Sooners’ pass defense that ranks 107th in the nation by allowing 263.6 passing YPG. Defense is an issue for this West Virginia team (as it is for all Big 12 teams). But they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Playing back in Morgantown should help this team as they are allowing only 13.8 PPG along with just 281.2 total YPG at home. West Virginia is outscoring their opponents by +32.8 net PPG while out-gaining their guests by +259 net YPG. The Mountaineers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as the underdog. West Virginia is also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record. Oklahoma may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win over a conference rival. The Sooners did generate 568 yards against the Jayhawks — they averaged 7.89 Yards-Per-Play in that game. Oklahoma had averaged 9.12 YPP in their previous game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP in their last two games. The bigger concern for this team is on the other side of the football where they have allowed at least 40 points in three straight games. The Sooners are allowing 425.8 total YPG which not only ranks 87th in the nation but is -73.6 net YPG worse than what West Virginia allows. Oklahoma allowed the Kansas offense to generate 524 yards against them — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, not only have the Sooners failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Last year’s Oklahoma team allowed under 395 yards per game — yet head coach Lincoln Riley fired defensive coordinator Mike Stoops for that unit finishing outside the top-50 in defense for the sixth time since 2012. This defense appears even worse. Look for West Virginia to outscore this Sooners team back on their home field. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Year with the West Virginia Mountaineers (142) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the South Florida Bulls (134) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (133). THE SITUATION: South Florida (7-4) has lost four straight games with their 27-17 loss at Temple as a 14-point underdog last week. Central Florida (10-0) remained undefeated with their 38-13 win at home against Cincinnati last Saturday night as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: South Florida can earn a signature win by giving the Knights their first loss of the season — and they will certainly be confident in this game after being upset by a 49-42 score to UCF in a back-and-forth affair last November despite being a 10.5-point favorite in that contest. Head coach Charlie Strong should get a strong effort from his team as USF is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight up loss. South Florida managed only 266 yards of offense against the Owls but they have a good chance to get their offense that ranks 27th in the nation by averaging 456.6 total YPG going in this game. The Bulls have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last contest — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. They return home where they are 4-1 this season after playing three of their last four games on the road. Playing a full 60 minutes will be one of the messages that Strong has for his players in this game after they went into the locker room against Temple with a 17-0 lead. The Bulls have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after enjoying at least a 17 point lead at halftime of their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 home games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Additionally, South Florida has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the month of November. Central Florida defeated the Bearcats by 25 points despite only being on offense for 22:48 minutes of that game. The Knights only out-gained Cincinnati by 23 net yards. UCF may be undefeated but their suspect run defense is going to catch up with them sooner rather than later. The Knights rank 111th in the nation by allowing 213.2 rushing YPG. They have allowed their last three opponents to generate at least 226 rushing yards. Not only has UCF failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 225 rushing yards in their last game but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after allowing at least 225 rushing yards in three straight contests. They face a USF team that averages 203.1 rushing YPG this season. Central Florida has also benefited from a favorable schedule that has seen them play at home for their last three games. The Knights go on the road for just the fourth time this season with easy trips already in the books against UConn and East Carolina. Their closest game of the season came on the road where they defeated Memphis by a 31-30 score which demonstrated their vulnerability away from home. They are allowing their home hosts to average a whopping 490.7 total YPG. Central Florida is being asked to lay a bunch of points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games when laying 14.5 to 21 points. Together, these team trends produce our specific 84-32-2 ATS combined angle for this situation.

FINAL TAKE: UCF has clinched their spot in the American Athletic Conference championship game next week — but a loss here in the “War on I-4” could ruin their hope to at least lay claim to the one non-Power Five conference New Years Day bowl slot. There is also the pressure this team faces in maintaining their two-year win streak. Expect the Bulls ground game to keep this game close. 10* CFB Central Florida-South Florida ESPN Special with the South Florida Bulls (134) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (133). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bulls (121) minus the points versus the Bowling Green Falcons (122). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (9-2) saw their five-game winning streak snapped back on November 14th with their 52-17 loss at Ohio as a small 2.5-point underdog. Bowling Green (3-8) has won two straight games after their 21-6 upset win at Akron as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS MINUS THE POINTS: Buffalo had the opportunity to clinch a spot in the Mid-American Conference championship game in that game with the Bobcats but they were simply flat and mentally unprepared for that game. We took Ohio in that midweek MACtion game — and we were rewarded with the Bobcats enjoying a +4 net turnover margin while out-gaining the Bulls by a whopping 646 to 277 yards advantage. Head coach Lance Leipold should have his team ready to play this afternoon — they have a big preparation edge with the extra days off and now facing a Falcons team playing on a short week from last Saturday. Buffalo still advances to face Northern Illinois next week in the MAC championship game with a victory this afternoon. Buffalo has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Furthermore, the Bulls have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Buffalo has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record. The Bulls have one of the best offensive lines in the nation — they should overwhelm a Falcons team with a weak defensive line that has let their opponents average 275.8 rushing YPG which is 127th in the nation. Interim head coach Carl Pelini has seen his team upset Central Michigan and then Akron in their last two games — but the Chippewas are a hot mess at 1-10 this season and the Zips offense makes every defense look good as they rank 126th in the nation in total offense. Bowling Green has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. The Falcons return home where they have only won once in the last two seasons while allowing this year’s guests to score 39.0 PPG along with gaining 484.2 total yards of offense. Bowling Green has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Together, these team trends produce our specific 70-20 ATS combined angle for this situation. 

FINAL TAKE: This Buffalo team is angry and motivated — and their ground attack travels as they average 185 rushing YPG on 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry on the road. The Bulls should overwhelm this Bowling Green that has taken a few steps back which prompted the firing of their third-year head coach Mike Jinks. 20* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Buffalo Bulls (121) minus the points versus the Bowling Green Falcons (122). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (124) minus the points versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (123). THE SITUATION: Iowa (7-4) snapped their three-game losing streak last Saturday with their dominant 63-0 win at Illinois as a 15-point favorite. Nebraska (4-7) has won two straight as well as four of their last five games with their 9-6 win over Michigan State as a 1.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa should build off the momentum of their blowout victory. They have covered the point spread in 5 of the last 7 games after both a straight-up win as well as after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Hawkeyes are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Head coach Kirk Ferentz’s team is one of the best defensive teams in the nation. They rank 9th in the FBS by allowing only 16.5 PPG — and they rank an even better 6th in the nation by giving up only 279.5 total YPG. After playing three of their last four games on the road, they return home to Iowa City for Senior Day where they are outscoring their opponents by +11.3 PPG due their stifling defense that limits their visitors to just 11.0 PPG along with a mere 243.8 total YPG. Iowa is also out-gaining their guests by +125.4 total YPG. The Hawkeyes are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games on their home field. Iowa has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Nebraska defeated Sparty in the snow last Saturday despite being outgained by -41 net yards. The Cornhuskers managed only 248 yards of offense against the Michigan State defense. That is not a good sign for this contest. Not only are they just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game but they are also 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after failing to generate more than 275 yards of offense in that contest. Head coach Scott Frost’s team is also just 2-10-2 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread victory. Not they finish their disappointing season on the road where they are 0-4 this year while being outscored by -17.7 net PPG and out-gained by -102.5 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Frost has to get his team into the weight room as he looks to change the nature of this Nebraska program. The Cornhuskers’ defense has plummeted over the years — these Blackshirts rank tied for 96th in the nation by allowing 434.8 total YPG. These soft defenses are the type of teams that the Hawkeyes expose in the Ferentz era — especially when playing at home in Kinnick Stadium. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Iowa Hawkeyes (124) minus the points versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (123). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (114) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (113). THE SITUATION: Mississippi (5-6) has lost four straight games with their 36-29 loss in overtime at Vanderbilt as a 3-point underdog last Saturday. Mississippi State (7-4) has won three of their last four games after enjoying their biggest victory of the season last week with their 52-6 blowout win over Arkansas as a 23.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: Ole Miss seemingly scored the winning touchdown in overtime before a penalty erased that play. It has been a disappointing season in the first-year under head coach Matt Luke who had the interim job last year after the program imploded when the actions of grifter Hugh Freeze came to light. The football program imposed a bowl ban for this year’s team — so this is the proverbial de-facto bowl game for this team with its nineteen seniors. In this rivalry game, don’t be surprised if Ole Miss plays their best game of the season. They have lost four games in a row — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing four straight games. They outgained the Commodores last week by a decisive 578 to 387 yardage margin but somehow found a way to lose that game. But this team plays their opponents close — they are out-gaining their opponents by +50.5 net YPG while out-gaining their last three opponents by +78.4 net YPG despite losing all three contests. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Ole Miss returns home where they are outscoring their out-gaining their opponents by +79.6 net YPG. This Rebels offense can score points on anyone. They rank 5th in the nation by averaging 539.7 total YPG — and they score 41.8 PPG while generating 572.3 total YPG when playing on their home field. Senior quarterback Jordan Ta’amu has passed for 3831 yards this season while tossing 19 touchdowns while throwing just seven interceptions. Ta’amu is second in the NFL by averaging 348.2 passing YPG — and he has a dynamic target in wide receiver A.J. Brown who has 1259 receiving yards this season. This duo makes Ole Miss a dangerous underdog — they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. The Rebels have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 22 games at home with the Total set int one 56.5 to 63 point range. Ole Miss has played their last two games Under the Total — but they have then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 40 games after playing their last two games Under the Total. And in their last 7 games played on a Thursday, the Rebels have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. Mississippi State may be due for a letdown after playing their best game of the season. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning three of their last four games. And while the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 29 of their last 44 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in five of these last six situations. Furthermore, Mississippi State has failed to cover the points spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win over a conference rival. Don’t be surprised if turnovers play a role in this game. While the Bulldogs have not committed more than one turnover in four straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when not experiencing more than one turnover in four straight contests. They go back on the road where they are 1-3 this season while being outscored by -10.0 net PPG. The problem for this team away from home is they are scoring only 10.2 PPG away from home. The hope of first-year head coach Joe Moorhead was that he could establish a vertical passing attack for senior quarterback Nick Fitzgerald. Instead, Mississippi State is completing only 44.7% of their pass attempts on the road while averaging a mere 121.0 passing YPG which is 60 YPG below their season average. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games against teams without a winning percentage higher than 50% at home. Furthermore, the Bulldogs are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 trips to OIe Miss in the Egg Bowl.

FINAL TAKE: Mississippi State does bring a great defense into this game — but they will be facing a confident Rebels team that returned 15 starters (including Ta’amu and Brown) who pulled a 31-28 upset on the road as 14-point underdogs last season. This is where the hiring of Moorhead from Penn State where he was offensive coordinator may be a negative since as an outsider he lacks an appreciation for this rivalry game. The underdog has covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Expect Ole Miss to keep this game closer than expected. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Year with the Mississippi Rebels (114) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (378) minus the points versus Arizona Wildcats (377). THE SITUATION: Washington State (9-1) has won six straight games with their 31-7 win at Colorado last week as a 5.5-point favorite. Arizona (5-5) has won two straight games with their 42-34 win over that same Buffaloes team two Saturdays ago as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: Washington State should continue to build off their momentum. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory by at least 20 points. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games after a point spread victory. Washington State returns home where they are a perfect 5-0 this season while outscoring their opponents by +18.0 PPG and out-gaining them by +189.0 net YPG. Led by quarterback Gardner Minshew, the Cougars lead the nation by averaging 392.3 passing YPG. He leads an offense that averages 473.4 total YPG when playing at home. But the improvement of this Washington State in the seventh year of head coach Mike Leach can be attributed to the play of their defense that is holding their visitors to just 16.2 PPG along with 284.4 total YPG. This strong defensive play helps explain why they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home. Arizona has covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. But the Wildcats look due for a big letdown now having to go back on the road where they are just 1-3 this season. Arizona is being outscored by -9.8 net PPG away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on the road. The Wildcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after playing their last two games against fellow Pac-12 opponents — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games away from home after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. And in their last 10 games played in the month of November, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Washington State needs to win this game to make their impending showdown with Washington next week being the deciding game as to which team will represent the Pac-12 North Division in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Cougars are unlikely to be looking ahead to that game as they will be motivated to avenge a 58-37 loss to the Wildcats last season. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the Washington State Cougars (378) minus the points versus Arizona Wildcats (377). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (353) plus the points versus the Central Knights (354). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (9-1) has won three straight games with their 35-23 win over South Florida last week as a 15-point favorite. Central Florida (9-0) remained one of four undefeated teams in the FBS with their 35-24 win over Navy as a 23.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: The Knights have won three straight games by at least 12 points after surviving a 31-30 victory at Memphis back on October 13th. But Central Florida has failed to cover then points read in 3 of their last 4 games after winning two straight games by double-digits over American Athletic Conference opponents. The UCF offense has averaged 6.81 and 8.29 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP in their last two games. But despite being undefeated, the Knights are vulnerable to good rushing teams. They have allowed their last two opponents average a whopping 600 rushing yards in their last two games (374 and 226 rushing yards respectively). Central Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 225 rushing yards in two straight games. The Knights rank 104th in the nation by allowing 208.9 rushing YPG — and this Bearcats team is 19th in the nation by rushing for 235.8 rushing YPG. Cincinnati has generated at least 238 rushing yards in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after rushing for at least 225 yards in two straight games. The Bearcats have won their last two games by at least 12 points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their 16 games after winning their last two games by double-digits against conference opponents. Both of those victories were at home — and Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning their last two games at home. The Bearcats have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread as the favorite in what was otherwise a straight-up win. Cincy goes back on the road where they are 4-1 with an average winning margin of +14.2 net PPG while out-gaining their home hosts by +109.2 net YPG. The Bearcats only loss this season was an overtime loss at Temple — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Even at home, Central Florida will be feeling the pressure of maintaining their perfect two-year run — and they also need to win this game to ensure they reach the American Athletic Conference championship game. But the Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the month of November. 10* CFB Cincinnati-Central Florida ABC-TV Special with the Cincinnati Bearcats (353) plus the points versus the Central Knights (354). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (417) and the Texas Longhorns (418). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (6-3) has won five straight games with their 28-14 win over Baylor last week as a 17-point favorite. Texas (7-3) snapped their two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 41-34 win at Texas Tech as a 2-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Longhorns have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Quarterback Shane Ehlinger did pass for 312 yards in a winning effort last week — but Texas has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. The Longhorns has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 40 points in their last game. And while Texas allowed 595 yards of offense to the Longhorns last week, they have then played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Texas returns home to Austin to where they are allowing only 22.0 PPG. The Longhorns have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total at home — and the Under is also 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Texas has also played a decisive 29 of their last 40 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Iowa State has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Cyclones won that game despite gaining only 357 yards of offense in that contest. They did surrender 505 yards to the Bears — but they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Iowa State allows only 20.4 PPG which is 22nd best in the nation — and that number drops to just an 18.7 PPG make when they are playing on the road. But the Cyclones also only score 23.0 PPG on the road while generating a mere 311.2 total YPG. Iowa State has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 17-7 score in Ames last season with that Total set at 62. With this year’s battle back in Austin where these two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total, expect another low scoring game. 25* CFB Big 12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (417) and the Texas Longhorns (418). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (386) minus the points versus the UAB Blazers (385). Texas A&M (6-4) looks to build off their 38-24 win over Ole Miss last week as a 13-point favorite. UAB (9-1) comes off a 26-23 win in overtime over Southern Miss as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: The Blazers have enjoyed a remarkable season in just their second season back playing college football after a two-year hiatus. Head coach Bill Clark has done a fantastic job resuscitating this program — winning nine of their first ten games might be even impressive than the 8-5 record he oversaw last year after the program was dormant. But UAB has also benefited from a front-loaded early schedule filled with home dates and winnable games. The Blazers have not faced a difficult list of opponents either with Louisiana Tech, Tulane or North Texas being their best team they have played this season. This will be the first Power-Five opponent they will have faced all season. UAB played only one Power-Five team last year — and that resulted in a 36-7 loss at Florida. The Blazers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against SEC opponents. UAB has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a no-cover victory where they won the game straight-up as the favorite. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 8 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. This team may be without their starting quarterback again this week with senior A.J. Erdely questionable with a shoulder injury. Freshman Tyler Johnson III has a very difficult assignment playing in a very hostile environment in College Station. Johnson III is completing only 54.7% of his passes this season with an unfavorable 4:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Texas A&M should build off the momentum of their victory last week under first-year head coach Jimbo Fisher who will be cracking the whip for this game. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a win at home. Texas A&M stays at home where they are 5-1 this season with an average winning margin of +19.1 PPG while outgaining these opponents by +200.0 net YPG. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored by 14.5 to 17 points. Furthermore, Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against non-conference opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Texas A&M is one of the few teams that gave Alabama a competitive game. They should overwhelm these upstart Blazers who are simply not ready for this level of competition. 20* CFB UAB-Texas A&M ESPN2 Special with the Texas A&M Aggies (386) minus the points versus the UAB Blazers (385). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (326) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (325). THE SITUATION: Purdue (5-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 41-10 loss at Minnesota as a 10-point favorite last week. Wisconsin (6-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 22-10 loss at Penn State last week as a 7.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Purdue should bounce-back and play well in this game. The Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least 20 points. Purdue has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Boilermakers have enjoyed a soft and light schedule on the road that caught up with them last week — and they were flat after pulling a big upset over Iowa in the previous week. But returning home will help where they are scoring 33.3 PPG while gaining a healthy 484.5 total YPG. Purdue has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home. Wisconsin seems to be in a downward spiral as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against Big Ten opponents who are seeing their opportunity to take out their revenge from past losses to the Badgers. This team has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have problems at quarterback with junior Alex Hornibrook still in the concussion protocol. Sophomore Jack Coan completed only 9 of 20 passes last week against the Nittany Lions for a mere 60 yards with two interceptions which left Wisconsin even more one-dimensional on offense than they have been in the past. That does not bode well for them here as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to pass for at least 170 yards in their last game. The Badgers have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. They go on the road where they are just 1-3 this season with an average losing margin of -10.0 PPG due to a stagnant offense that is scoring only 17.0 PPG while averaging 322.5 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Purdue will be excited to play this game with it being Senior Day with their last home game of the season. The Boilermakers will also be motivated to avenge a 17-9 loss to the Badgers last season and join their name to the list of teams who successfully enjoyed the sweet taste of revenge on Wisconsin this year. Purdue’s offensive firepower may lead them to an easy win. 20* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Purdue Boilermakers (326) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (325). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (390) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (389). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (5-5) has lost two straight games — as well as four of their last five games — with their 48-47 loss at Oklahoma last Saturday as a 21.5-point underdog. West Virginia (8-1) has won three straight games with their 47-10 win over TCU last week as a 13.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. The Cowboys generated 640 yards in their loss to the Sooners — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. This powerful Oklahoma State offense should keep them in this game against this Mountaineers team with a shaky defense. They return home after playing their last two games on the road where they are scoring 42.3 PPG along with averaging 512.7 total YPG — and this helps them out-gain their guests by +13.1 net PPG along with out-gaining them by +116.7 net YPG. The Cowboys have seen at least 66 combined points scored in each of their last three games — and they are very comfortable getting into shootouts with this Total in the mid-70s. Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after playing at least two straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. And while the Cowboys did not force a turnover last week, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 home games after failing to force a turnover in their last game. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 4 of these contests. West Virginia dominated a reeling Horned Frogs team last week as they out-gained them by +313 net yards by churning out 535 yards of offense while limiting them to just 222 yards. But not only have the Mountaineers failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they are also just 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while Dana Holgorsen’s team has covered the point spread in three straight games, his team is likely due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 42 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. Now West Virginia goes back on the road where they are 3-1 this season — but they are being out-gained in yardage in those games because their defense is allowing 445.5 total YPG in those games. Pass defense is the biggest vulnerability of the Mountaineers as they rank 74th in the nation by allowing 233.2 passing YPG — and that mark rises to 269 passing YPG when they are playing on the road. Those are ominous defensive numbers when facing quarterback Taylor Cornelius who is leading an offense that ranks 10th in the FBS by averaging 317.6 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: This has been a disappointing season for Oklahoma State who returned twelve starters from a team that finished 10-3 last season. Three of their losses this year have been decided by just one possession total a mere 11 points. But the Cowboys should be motivated to pull off the upset in their last home game of the season. Expect Oklahoma State to keep this one close with a real shot of scoring the straight-up win. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Year with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (390) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (389). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Syracuse Orange (367) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (368). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (10-0) remained undefeated this season with their 42-13 win over Florida State last week as a 17-point favorite. Syracuse (8-2) has won four games in a row themselves with their 54-23 win over Louisville as a 20-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ORANGE PLUS THE POINTS: This is the time of the season that the Fighting Irish begin to fade. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in the month of November. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning at least eight straight games. Notre Dame is the technical home team with this game being played in Yankee Stadium. And while there might be more Irish fans in the stadium than fans up from upstate New York, considering the crowd edge as being the essential component to what makes up the home advantage in football misunderstands the concept. It not just enjoying the cheers of the crowd — the advantage of playing at home includes playing a very familiar environment while avoiding the challenges of being on the road. Notre Dame does not enjoy either of those advantages in this game — so I consider this a neutral field situation just as I do all bowl teams that are not playing in their home stadium (despite possible crowd advantages). Moving forward, the Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Syracuse will not be shy about being aggressive about pulling the upset this afternoon after losing to Clemson by just four points earlier this season after pulling upsets against the Tigers last year along with Virginia Tech in 2016. The Orange also played LSU and Miami (FL) tough last year — this is a team that will be very confident in the third season under head coach Dino Babers. Syracuse enters this game with momentum after their 54-23 blowout win over the Cardinals that cost Bobby Petrino his job (so the Karma Gods will certainly be on their side after that service to humanity). The Orange have then covered the points pray in 27 of their last 39 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they are also 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. The Babers’ up-tempo offense might prove difficult for Brian Kelly and his staff to slow down. Syracuse ranks 6th in the nation by scoring 44.4 PPG — and they also rank 14th in the nation by generating 482.2 total YPG. The Orange should be able to run the ball against the Irish defense that allows their opponents to average 128.9 rushing YPG which ranks 41st in the nation. Syracuse averages 216.1 rushing YPG which is 28th in the nation — and the fast tempo is designed to wear down opposing defenses. The Orange has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Syracuse has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field while also covering the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame is undefeated despite four of their games being decided by one scoring possession. A loss this afternoon might devastate their College Playoff aspirations — and that pressure should help ensure this is a close game. The Irish lost on the road to Miami in November last year to ruin their undefeated season. 20* CFB Syracuse-Notre Dame NBC-TV Special with the Syracuse Orange (367) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (368). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (415) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (416). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (6-4) looks to bounce-back from a 26-6 loss at home to Ohio State as a 3.5-point underdog. Nebraska (2-7) has won two of their last three games with their 54-35 win over Illinois as a 17-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Michigan State was playing the Buckeyes close as that game was just a 7-3 score at halftime before a bungled punt in their own end zone shifted momentum to Ohio State in the second-half of that game. But the Michigan State defense played quite well in holding the Buckeyes to just 347 yards. Sparty has held their last two opponents to just 223.5 net YPG — and they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after allowing no more than 225 YPG over their last two games. Michigan State will offer a very tough test for the Cornhuskers as they lead the nation by only allowing 76.5 rushing YPG. The Spartans should bounce-back with a tough effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, Michigan State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. The Spartans have issues at quarterback with starter Brian Lewerke dealing with an arm injury that left him ineffective last week. Backup Rocky Lombardi may get more playing time in this game with head coach Mark Dantonio looking at his options for next season. But Michigan State should have success running the football against this Cornhuskers defense that ranks 90th in the FBS by allowing 190.4 rushing YPG. Sparty’s defense travels as they are 3-1 away from East Lansing this season while outscoring their opponents by +9.0 PPG and outgaining them by +69.7 net YPG. Michigan State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. Nebraska benefited from a +3 net turnover margin over the Illini last week while surrendering 510 yards of offense. The Cornhuskers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they are just 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games after a straight-up win. Nebraska has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Cornhuskers have lacked little home field advantage in Lincoln as of late as well as they are just 3-13-2 ATS in their last 18 games at home while also being 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 opportunities to host a team with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan State upset Penn State and played Ohio State tough last week — they are still one of the better teams in the Big Ten. Nebraska has hit rock bottom with a roster that is not to the satisfaction of rookie head coach Scott Frost. Wins over Minnesota and the Illini do not change this fact. The elite Spartans’ defense should dictate how this game plays out. 10* CFB Michigan State-Nebraska Fox-TV Special with the Michigan State Spartans (415) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (416). Bets of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the SMU Mustangs (316) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (315). THE SITUATION: SMU (5-5) has won two straight games with their 62-50 win at UConn last Saturday as an 18-point favorite. Memphis (6-4) has also won two straight games with their 47-21 win over Tulsa as a 17-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MUSTANGS MINUS THE POINTS: For the second straight game, SMU raced out to a big halftime lead with Sonny Dykes team going into the locker room with a 31-10 lead over the Huskies after the first thirty minutes of play. The Mustangs enjoyed a 31-14 halftime lead in the previous week in their 45-31 upset win over Houston the previous week. SMU has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after holding at least a two-touchdown lead at halftime in two straight games. The Mustangs generated 595 yards of offense against the Cougars — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. This offense has improved under Dykes once junior quarterback Ben Hicks got more acclimated to his expectations. The third-year starter lost his spot under center for freshman William Brown but after a strong performance in a losing effort against an undefeated Central Florida team, Hicks has significantly stepped up his game as the starting quarterback. Hicks has averaged 303.3 passing YPG over his last four games with throwing 10 touchdown passes while throwing only two interceptions. SMU has scored 53.5 PPG over their last two games which makes them a very dangerous underdog tonight. They lost at home to a one-loss Cincinnati team by just 6 points three weeks ago. The Mustangs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games in expected shootouts with the Total set at 70 or higher. SMU did not commit a turnover against UConn last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where they did not commit a turnover. And while the Mustangs’ defense is giving up plenty of points, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Memphis has scored 106 points over their last two games after they defeated East Carolina by a 59-41 score in the week prior to their win over the Golden Hurricanes last week. But the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning their last two games by at least 17 points. Additionally, Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 44 games after scoring at least 42 points in their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 42 points in two straight games. Furthermore, while the Tigers have rushed for at least 277 yards in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when rushing for at least 275 yards in two straight games. But now this team goes on the road again where they have lost three of their four games this season while being outscored by -7.8 PPG and being outgained by -78.0 net YPP. The Memphis defense allows their home hosts to score 42.0 PPG along with 503.5 total YPG. Quarterback Brady White has not fared well when asked to win shootouts. In the Tigers’ four losses, he is completing only 50.4% of his passes while averaging just 202 passing YPG (almost 60 passing YPG below the team’s season average) with only a 4:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. This makes the Tigers unreliable road favorites — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 52 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points which includes them failing to cover the point spread in five of their last six games when laying those points.

FINAL TAKE: SMU will be very motivated to pull the upset in this game. Not only are they looking to avenge a 66-45 loss to Memphis last season but a victory tonight keeps them in control of their own destiny to win the American Athletic Conference West Division as they hold the tie-breaker against Houston. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the SMU Mustangs (316) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (315). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (314) minus the points versus the Florida Atlantic Owls (313). THE SITUATION: North Texas (7-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 34-31 upset loss at Old Dominion last Saturday as a 14-point favorite. FAU (5-5) has won two straight games with their 34-15 win over Western Kentucky as a 17.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN PLUS THE POINTS: North Texas raced out to a 28-0 lead in the first quarter but then went on autopilot to lose that game to the Monarchs. The Mean Green have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset loss to a conference rival. They also have covered the points spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first-half of their last game. This is a balanced team that ranks in the top-22 in scoring offense and defense while also ranking in the top-29 in total offense and total defense. North Texas is outscoring their opponents by +16.9 PPG. They return home where they are 4-1 with an average winning margin of +22.0 PPG while outgaining these opponents by +188.0 net YPG due to their potent offense that scores 40.4 PPG along with averaging 315.4 total YPG. Despite the loss to Old Dominion, the Mean Green have still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played in the month of November. FAU has a tough assignment traveling to Denton, Texas on a short week after playing on Saturday — and this is their second game on the road in their last three games. Florida Atlantic is just 1-4 on the road with an average losing margin of -11.8 net PPG. The Owls have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. FAU forced one turnover against the Hilltoppers in their win last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. The Owls have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Together, these team trends produce our specific 42-16 ATS combined angle for this situation.

FINAL TAKE: North Texas also has the opportunity to avenge their two losses to Florida Atlantic last season including their 41-17 loss last December 2nd in the Conference USA championship game. While their 3-3 conference record was a disappointment for the Mean Green, getting revenge against the Owls offers this team the opportunity to highlight their season. 20* CFB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the North Texas Mean Green (314) minus the points versus the Florida Atlantic Owls (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (312) minus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (311). THE SITUATION: Houston (7-3) has lost two straight games after suffering their second-straight upset loss in a row with their 59-49 loss to Temple on Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite. Tulane (5-5) has won three straight games with their 24-18 win over East Carolina on Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston may have been suffering from the hangover of their 45-31 upset loss at SMU the previous week despite being a two-touchdown favorite in that game. The Cougars are still alive to reach the American Athletic Conference championship game but they need to win their remaining two regular-season games while then hoping SMU loses again. This is a team that has also been riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball with the biggest loss being their star defensive tackle Ed Oliver who will likely not take the field tonight with his knee injury. But Houston still has their starting quarterback D’Eriq King who has led an offense that ranks 2nd in the nation by averaging 546.1 total YPG along with scoring 47.8 PPG which is the 4th most in the FBS. The Cougars generated 527 yards of offense in their loss to the Owls last week despite having possession of the football for just 25:37 minutes of that game — and this team’s offense should overwhelm the Green Wave tonight. Houston has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after an upset loss at home to a conference rival despite being the favorite. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Being at home on a short week should help after playing three of their last four games on the road. Houston is 4-1 at home with an average winning margin of +21.6 net PPG while outgaining the visitors by +121.7 net YPG due to their offense that scores 52.4 PPG at home while averaging 581.6 total YPG in those games. The Cougars have struggled on defense after allowing 104 combined points in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after allowing at least 37 points in two straight games. Tulane is scoring only 23.2 PPG along with averaging just 342.0 total YPG when playing away from home. With their senior dual-threat quarterback Jonathan Banks still questionable with an injury, head coach Willie Fritz will likely have to depend on LSU graduate transfer Justin McMillan who led them to victory last week. McMillan can operate the run-first spread offense that Fritz prefers but accuracy in the passing game is an issue as he has completed only 46% of his 87 pass attempts this season. The Green Wave averaged 6.94 Yards-Per-Play against the suspect Pirates defense last week but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Tulane has only committed one turnover in three straight games as well — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not turning the ball over in two straight games — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in those last four situations. This is the Green Wave’s third game on the road in their last four contests which is a very tough assignment when playing on a short week. Tulane has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 trips to Houston to face the Cougars.

FINAL TAKE: Houston should take out their frustrations over the last two weeks with a big win over a Tulane team being outscored by -6.6 PPG on the road while being outgained by more than 100 yards in those road contests. 25* CFB Thursday Night ESPN Game of the Year with the Houston Cougars (312) minus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Ohio Bobcats (304) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (303). THE SITUATION: Ohio (6-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Wednesday in their 30-28 upset loss at Miami (OH) despite being a 4.5-point favorite. Buffalo (9-1) has won five straight games with their 48-14 win over Kent State last Tuesday as a 17-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOBCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio remains statistically alive to win the MAC East Division but their loss to the RedHawks was devastating to their realistic chances. The Bobcats need to win out their last two games with the Bulls needing to then lose next week to a lowly Bowling Green team to keep their chances alive of reaching the MAC Championship Game. But Frank Solich’s team can still play the role of the spoiler tonight as they look to redeem themselves from their upset loss to their arch rival in Miami (OH). As it is, Ohio has rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 6 points or less. The Bobcats return home where they are a perfect 4-0 while outscoring their visitors by +23.7 net PPG and outgaining these opponents by +146.5 net YPG. Ohio has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on their home field. Led by quarterback Nathan Rourke, the Bobcats are scoring 39.3 PPG which is 12th best in the nation. Expected higher scoring games plays into this teams hands as the Bobcats have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Ohio has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. Buffalo is in the midst of perhaps their best season in school history — but with their two-game lead in the MAC East Division, they can afford to lose this game and still reach win this title. This team returned fourteen starters from a group that finished 6-6 last year but was snubbed in getting an opportunity to play in a bowl game. This will be a very tough test for this program not used to pressure situations — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in Athens to face this Ohio team. The Bulls have also failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 47 road games after playing their previous three games against MAC competitors. Buffalo raced out to a 34-0 lead last week against the Golden Flashes — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. They also outrushed Kent State by +258 net yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 gamed after outrushing their last opponent by at least 150 yards. Lastly, while the Bulls have covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in five straight games — so this is a team that might be primed for a letdown.

FINAL TAKE: Any chance that Ohio might be flat in this game is likely mitigated by Solich’s ability to invoke the memories of last year’s encounter between these two teams. The Bobcats fell behind by a 24-7 score in the first quarter on the road in that game but called to tied that game before falling behind again by 31-24 score. Rourke rallied his team for one final drive to tie the game — but he was intercepted in the end zone with just 1:20 minutes left in the 4th quarter to conclude that upset loss despite them being 6.5-point favorites. Look for Ohio to avenge that loss tonight against a Buffalo team that can still reach the MAC Championship Game with a victory next week. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Year with the Ohio Bobcats (304) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (171) plus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (172). THE SITUATION: Colorado State (3-6) has lost two games in a row after their 34-21 loss to Wyoming back on October 26th as a +3.5-point underdog. Nevada (5-4) pulled off their second-straight upset win with their 28-24 win at home over San Diego State two Saturdays ago as a +2-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: The Wolf Pack upset the Aztecs just a week after they crushed Hawai’i on the road by a 40-22 score as a small +1.5-point underdog. Now Nevada finds themselves as two-touchdown favorites — but an emotional letdown for this team is likely. As it is, the Wolfpack have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home. Furthermore, Nevada has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. The Wolfpack were outgained by San Diego State by a decisive -159 net yards but rallied from a 24-15 halftime deficit by enjoying a +2 net turnover margin. Nevada has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a game where they enjoyed a +2 or better net turnover margin. The Wolf Pack have won three of their games this season by one scoring possession — and they are actually being outgained at home by -17.6 net YPG. Defense is an issue for this team as they are allowing 31.2 PPG due to a weak pass defense that ranks 108th in the nation by allowing 264.2 passing YPG. Colorado State should bounce-back from their loss at home to the Cowboys as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Rams went into the locker room at halftime trailing by just a 3-0 score — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than a field in the first-half of their last game. Colorado State was burdened by a -3 net turnover margin in their loss to Wyoming — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enduring a -3 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Head coach Mike Bobo needed the bye week at this point of the season with his team still fighting to become bowl eligible. The Rams’ defense shifted to a 4-3 formation in the offseason so an extra week of practice should help on that side of the football. Bobo also got an extra week of work with sophomore quarterback Collin Hill who has started the last two games after a long recovery from what has been two torn ACL injuries that have derailed him since being initially tapped to be the starting quarterback for this team in the fall of 2017. Despite this team’s struggles this season, Bobo has still overseen an explosive passing attack that ranks 15th in the nation by averaging 310.3 passing YPG. This potent passing game should keep the Rams competitive in this game — they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Colorado State has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 expected higher-scoring games on the road where the Total is set at least at 63. And in their last 16 games played in the month of November under Bobo’s leadership, the Rams have covered the point spread 11 times.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado State has underachieved this season while Nevada has overachieved a bit. As both teams meet for their tenth game of the season coming off a bye week, expect the Rams to keep his game closer than expected. 25* CFB Mountain Western Conference Underdog of the Year with the Colorado State Rams (171) plus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (172). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boston College Eagles (122) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (121). THE SITUATION: Boston College (7-2) has won three games in a row with their 31-21 win at Virginia Tech last Saturday as a 2-point favorite. Clemson (9-0) remained undefeated last week with their 77-16 thrashing of Louisville as a 38-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The Tigers are on a roll having not allowed more than 16 points while blowing out all four of their opponents by at least 34 points since their narrow 27-23 win at home over Syracuse. But Clemson may be due for some nervy moments tonight as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last four games by at least 17 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 17 points in at least four straight games. The Tigers did generate 661 yards of offense against the Cardinals last week — but they are then just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Clemson has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have scored at least 136 points in their last two games. But the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after scoring at least 42 points in their last two games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Furthermore, Clemson has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing on field turf. Boston College will enter this game with momentum as they have covered the point spread in four straight games. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Boston College is also 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they are 14-2-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a point spread victory. The Eagles have the components to keep this game close by running the football and defending against the Tigers rushing attack. Led by A.J. Dillon, Boston College averages 283 rushing YPG on their home field while averaging 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry. Dillon should be able to keep the high-powered Tigers offense off the field. And the Eagles hold visiting teams to just 3.3 YPC — and this Clemson team has become very dependent on the run. Freshman QB Trevor Lawrence passed for only 59 yards last week on 12 passes — this will be the biggest game of his young career. Boston College is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. On their home field, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games while outscoring their opponents by +24.6 PPG and outgaining these guests by +207.0 net YPG. Boston College has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog getting 14.5 to 21 points.

FINAL TAKE: The weather will not be doing the Tigers any favors tonight with the temperature dropping below 40 degrees. With the BC faithful revved up to see their team pull the upset, expect a closer game than what is expected. 20* CFB Clemson-Boston College ABC-TV Special with the Boston College Eagles (122) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (121). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (199) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (200). THE SITUATION: LSU (7-2) looks to pick themselves off the mat after their embarrassing 29-0 shutout loss at home to Alabama last week where they were +14-point underdogs. Arkansas (2-7) comes off a 45-31 loss to Vanderbilt as a 1-point underdog two Saturdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: LSU should rebound with a strong effort as they look to make the best of the rest of their season. Their players represent a football program that has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Additionally, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 20 points. And while they surrendered 576 yards of offense to the Tide, LSU has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after allowing at least 450 yards. The Tigers have covered a decisive 10 of their last 12 games in SEC play — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. LSU has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of November. Facing this Arkansas team may be just what the doctor ordered as the Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Arkansas has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games. Additionally, the Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Arkansas generated 207 rushing yards in their loss to the Commodores while averaging 6.88 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but that does not bode well for them now. The Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP in their last game — and are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: While LSU was overwhelmed against Alabama last week, they will be motivated to play the role of the bully this week. The Razorbacks are in a major rebuild under first-year head coach Chad Morris. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the LSU Tigers (199) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (200). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (119) plus the points versus Pittsburgh Panthers (120). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (4-4) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 31-21 loss to Boston College last week as a 2-point underdog. Pittsburgh (5-4) has won three of their last four games with their 23-13 upset win at Virginia last Friday as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Virginia Tech remains alive in the Coastal Division race with a 3-2 record in conference play — but they need to win out their games which starts with giving a second loss to this Panthers team that currently resides in first place with their 4-1 record in ACC play. The Hokies should respond with a strong effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games after losing two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after losing two straight against conference rivals. Don’t blame junior quarterback Ryan Willis who completed 25 of 42 passes for 281 yards with three touchdown passes against the Eagles defense while adding another 49 yards on the ground. The transfer from Kansas has played well since stepping in for incumbent starter Josh Jackson who suffered a season-ending knee injury at the end of September. Willis has seen his wide receivers drop too many of his passes — and team turnovers have not helped the cause. Virginia Tech has lost the turnover battle in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games after suffering a -1 or worse net turnover margin in at least two straight games. This is a very young defense that was rebuilding from their outstanding unit last season — but in defensive coordinator Bud Foster we trust to continue to get improvement out of his group. This is a team that is 3-1 on the road while outscoring their home hosts by +6.8 PPG — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7.5 points. Pittsburgh followed up their 54-45 upset win over Duke as a small 2-point favorite with that upset win at Virginia last Friday. But a letdown is likely for this team that is not used to being in control of their own destiny when it comes to the ACC conference championship. The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after pulling off two straight upset wins. Pittsburgh has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. And while they held the Cavaliers to just 249 yards of offense, they have not covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. Pitt has covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. The Panthers are unreliable home favorites. They might be 4-1 on their home field but they are only outscoring their visitors by +0.4 net PPG — and they are being outgained in net yardage at home. Lastly, Pitt has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have been dangerous underdogs in the Pat Narduzzi regime — but this team has been an unreliable favorite as well with a defense that has not come close to taking on the characteristics of the Michigan State defenses that he served as the coordinator of. Look for a close game where taking the points with the underdog will offer plenty of value. 10* CFB Virginia Tech-Pittsburgh ESPNU Special with the Virginia Tech Hokies (119) plus the points versus Pittsburgh Panthers (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (194) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (193). THE SITUATION: Florida (6-3) looks to bounce-back from their 38-17 upset loss to Missouri last Saturday as a 6.5-point favorite. South Carolina (5-3) has won two straight games with their 48-44 upset win at Ole Miss last week as a 2-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GATORS MINUS THE POINTS: Florida should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. The Gators have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss at home. Florida has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Gators have not forced a turnover in two straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to force a turnover in their last game. Florida will be hosting a Gamecocks team that ranks 105th in the FBS with a -0.63 net turnover margin per game. Even after last week’s loss in the Swamp, the Gators are outscoring their visitors by +12.2 PPG at home. South Carolina looks due for a big emotional letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 37 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where both teams scored at least 37 points. South Carolina did surrender a whopping 616 yards of offense to the Rebels last week — they were outgained by -108 net yards but pulled out the win due to a 90-yard kick off return for a touchdown. Run defense is an issue for their defense as they rank 86th in the FBS by allowing 182.0 rushing YPG. The Gamecocks stay on the road this week to play just their fourth game away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games with the Total set int he 52.5 to 56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Florida will not only be looking to redeem themselves from last week’s upset loss but they will have revenge on their minds after losing to South Carolina last year by a 28-20 score. 10* CFB South Carolina-Florida ESPN Special with the Florida Gators (194) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (193). Best of luck for us — Frank.