At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (302) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (301). THE SITUATION: Eastern Michigan (6-4) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 34-26 upset loss to Ohio as a 6-point favorite last Tuesday. Western Michigan (6-4) ended their two-game losing streak with a 45-40 win against Akron as a 26-point favorite last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Eastern Michigan still has plenty to play for this season even if their 3-3 conference record likely has them out of contention to play in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. Reaching eight wins would be a milestone for this program as would winning the Michigan MAC Title involving the four directional teams from the state in the conference. Reaching a fourth bowl in the last six seasons under head coach Chris Creighton would cement his legacy. The Eagles have bounced back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset loss. Eastern Michigan has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home to a conference rival. Ben Bryant complete 41 of 57 passes for 354 yards in the losing effort to the Bobcats. The graduate transfer quarterback from Cincinnati is completing 69.7% of his passes and has thrown for at least 300 yards in four straight games. He leads an offense ranked 27th in the nation by scoring 34.0 PPG. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games after passing for at least 280 yards. They return home where they are outscoring their guests by +8.8 PPG. Eastern Michigan rarely gets soundly defeated — they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when getting 3.5 to 10 points. Western Michigan has been inconsistent under head coach Tim Lester. They are just 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win against a conference rival. The defensive play of the Broncos has been holding them back. They are tied for 91st in the nation by allowing 30.0 PPG — and they surrender 34.8 PPG and 413.3. total YPG in their four games on the road. Western Michigan has allowed at least 31 points in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after giving up at least 31 points in their last two contests. The offense has taken a step back this year as well. Quarterback Kaleb Eleby led the team to score 41.7 PPG last season — but the loss of two players to the NFL from that group may be playing a role in their averaging 11.0 fewer PPG this season. On the road, the Broncos are scoring just 24.3 PPG. Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 37 points in their last contest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Western Michigan was a favorite to win the MAC West Title — so their 3-3 record in the MAC has been another disappointment under Lester. It could be worse — the Broncos have won all three of their games decided by one scoring possession. Eastern Michigan has played an incredible 45 of their last 58 games within one scoring possession. They are 2-3 in their five one-score games this year continuing a string of tough luck where they have won only four of their last fourteen games decided by eight points or less. Eastern Michigan has upset Miami (OH) and Toledo this year making it 15 upset wins under Creighton in the last six seasons. Getting 5.5 to 6 or so points offers a nice cushion in a game where the Eagles should be in a position to pull the upset. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (302) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (221) and the San Jose State Spartans (222). THE SITUATION: Utah State (7-2) has won four games in a row after their 35-13 win at New Mexico State as an 18.5-point favorite on Saturday. San Jose State (5-5) had their two-game winning streak end with their 27-24 loss at Nevada as a 12.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 18 of their last 25 road games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Quarterback Lucas Bonner completed 23 of 32 passes for 349 yards in the victory against the Aggies — but Utah State has played 4 straight Unders after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Bonner passed for 406 yards in their previous game against Hawai’i -- but the Aggies have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after passing for at least 325 yards in two straight games. Utah State stays on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. And in their last 61 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range, the Aggies have played 40 of these games Under the Total. San Jose State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss on the road —  and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Spartans have also played 13 of their last 16 home games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. San Jose State has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then played 6 straight home games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. The Spartans scoring numbers on the season are lower than expected because quarterback Nick Starkel has missed a handful of games. He was back last week to help the offense pass for 288 yards — but San Jose State has played 8 straight Unders after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Spartans return home where they hold their opponents to just 21.3 PPG — and the 319.0 total Yards-Per-Game they give up to their guests is -36.0 net YPG below their season average. San Jose State has played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Spartans have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record Utah State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (221) and the San Jose State Spartans (222). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (162) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (161). THE SITUATION: UCLA (5-4) has lost two games in a row after their 44-24 loss at Utah as a 6.5-point underdog two weeks ago. Colorado (3-6) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 37-34 upset victory against Oregon State in double-overtime as an 11.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Chip Kelly’s seat is getting warmer in Los Angeles after a two-game slide — although both losses were without quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The bye week helped DTR and some other injured players get healthy again for the stretch run of the season that will determine whether or not this has been a successful season. With USC on deck, UCLA will want to establish some momentum. They narrowly lost at home to Oregon by a 34-31 score in their previous game before being flat against the Utes. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. And while they spotted Utah 28 points in the first half in their last game, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Additionally, UCLA has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after losing two in a row to a Pac-12 foe while allowing at least 31 points in both contests . Hosting the Buffaloes may be just what the doctor ordered as they have allowed at least 200 rushing yards five times in this season including in each of their last three games. In their last seven contests, Colorado is giving up 211 rushing YPG with their opponent scoring at least three rushing touchdowns in four of those games. UCLA running backs Zach Charbonnet and Brittain Brown along with Thompson-Robinson combine to average 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry with 20 rushing touchdowns. They host the Buffaloes at the Rose Bowl where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when laying 14.5 to 21 points. Colorado is getting better play from freshman quarterback Brendon Lewis who has led them to score 33 PPG in their last two games after they averaged just 12 PPG in their first six games against FBS opponents. But the Buffaloes winless on the road in four games with an average losing margin of -17.8 PPG. They only score 13.0 PPG and average 238.8 total YPG on the road — and they allow their home hosts to average 433.3 total YPG. This will be Colorado’s third game in their last four on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. The Buffaloes surrendered 475 yards to the Beavers in their upset win — and they have failed to cover the pint spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. And while they have not committed a turnover in two straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after not committing a turnover.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado has lost by at least 22 points in all four of their setbacks in the Pac-12 this season. UCLA has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the UCLA Bruins (162) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (161). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (206) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (205). THE SITUATION: Arkansas (6-3) has won two straight games after their 31-28 win against Mississippi State as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. LSU (4-5) looks to rebound from their 20-14 loss at Alabama as a 29.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. And while Arkansas has not covered the point spread in their last three games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Razorbacks go back on the road where they are just 1-2 this season in their three games away from home. They score only 23.7 PPG in these three away games — and their defense allows 33.0 PPG and 409.3 total YPG. Playing away from Fayetteville has been a problem for this program — they have won just once in their last fifteen road games since 2018. This team has won only one road game in their seven played under head coach Sam Pittman. Arkansas has lost both of their two true road games when playing in a hostile environment rather than a neutral field. Now they are favored despite having failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games when favored. LSU may have lost last week — but they feel good about themselves for holding the potent Crimson Tide offense to just 308 total yards. The Tigers stuffed Alabama in 14 of their 22 rushing attempts while holding them to only 3.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. LSU dialed up their pressure by generating four sacks and eight tackles for loss against the Tide — and Razorbacks’ QB K.J. Jefferson struggles against the blitz. While the Tigers are playing for a lame-duck head coach in Ed Orgeron who will not be retained at the end of the season, I expect the players to rally around him and each other in this night game in Death Valley. This group does not want the embarrassment of not becoming bowl eligible. As it is, LSU has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. And while the offense has only scored 31 points in their last two games, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. Orgeron is looking for a spark on offense which is why freshman quarterback Garrett Nussmeier will get plenty of snaps tonight — and he has a cannon for an arm.

FINAL TAKE: LSU has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as a dog. Arkansas is just 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 games when favored. Don’t be surprised if the Tigers pull the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 20* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the LSU Tigers (206) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (205). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (150) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (149). THE SITUATION: Baylor (7-2) looks to rebound from a 30-28 upset loss at TCU as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma (9-0) remained unbeaten with their 52-21 victory against Texas Tech as a 19.5-point favorite as a 19.5-point favorite on October 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Sooners are right in the heart of the College Football Playoff conversation with their unbeaten record — but this will be the most difficult game they have played so far this year when considering that their eight FBS opponents have combined for a 28-45 record (not including their victory against Western Carolina from the FCS). Their best win up to this point is probably their six-point win against a 6-3 Kansas State team. Five of their victories have been by a touchdown or less. Even with this soft schedule, the play of the Oklahoma defense once again appears to be a liability. They allow 24.2 Points-Per-Game and 383.9 total Yards-Per-Game — ranking 60th and 63rd in the nation. Injuries have not helped matters — but this remains a defense that is allowing 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt from opposing quarterbacks while ranking 113th in the nation by giving up 272.9 passing YPG. Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch lost two cornerbacks to the NFL from last year — and sophomore cornerback Woodi Washington has been out with an injury — but these are ominous numbers heading into the most difficult part of their schedule. They do come off a bye week — but they are just 6-6 ATS in the 12 games under Lincoln Riley with an extra week to prepare. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by 20 or more points. And while freshman quarterback Caleb Williams passed for over 400 yards against the Red Raiders to lead an offense that generated 541 yards, the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 375 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Oklahoma has scored at least 37 points in seven straight games after their narrow 16-13 escape at home against West Virginia in early September — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 31 points in five straight games. Baylor may have been caught looking ahead to this showdown last week in their upset loss to a Horned Frogs team motivated to play for head coach Gary Patterson who resigned after their previous game. The Bears can remove the bad taste in their mouth from that disappointing performance by stunning the undefeated Sooners — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss to a Big 12 rival where they were laying at least six points. Baylor has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. The Bears need to tighten up on defense after allowing TCU gain 570 yards. Baylor has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards. Head coach Dave Aranda has talent on defense with ten starters back from the COVID-marred rookie campaign with the team last year. The Bears had not allowed 30 points before last week with only Iowa State scoring more than 24 points against them. Baylor has a potent rushing attack that averages 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry and ranks seventh in the nation by generating 230.9 rushing YPG. By not asking junior quarterback Gerry Bohanon to do too much, the Bears are averaging a healthy 8.8 Yards-Per-Attempt. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games as an underdog. Furthermore, Baylor has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Aranda schemed a defense last year that limited the Sooners to just 269 total yards and 10 points in the first half in a 27-14 Oklahoma victory in Norman. Now the Bears host Oklahoma in Norman where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Sooners. The inexperience of Williams at quarterback may lead to some nervy moments for the National Championship aspirations of Oklahoma. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Year with the Baylor Bears (150) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (119) and the Boise State Broncos (120). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (5-4) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 31-17 upset win against Colorado State as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Boise State (5-4) has won two in a row with their 40-14 upset win at Fresno State as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys had their second-highest scoring game this season with the 31 points they put on the scoreboard against the Rams. They are still averaging just 23.0 PPG this season — and they have scored 18.0 PPG in their last three games even after their 31 points last week. Wyoming has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory.  And while the Cowboys generated 477 yards of offense last week, the Under is a decisive 40-18-1 in their last 59 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The strength of Wyoming is their defense as they hold their opponents to 21.3 PPG. They have held seven of their nine opponents to 22 or fewer points — and their last three opponents averaged just 19.3 PPG. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Wyoming is fourth in the nation by allowing only 157.9 passing YPG — and they rank 22nd in Opponent’s Pass Success Rate so the low counting pass yards they allow is not purely a function of slower-paced games. The Cowboys do run the ball 63% of the time — so the clock will keep running tonight. Head coach Craig Bohl has moved to Levi Williams as his starting quarterback in the last two games — but he is completing only 55% of his passes. Wyoming goes on the road where the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 road games as an underdog. Boise State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Broncos have not allowed more than 24 points in eight of their last nine games — and they have held their last three opponents to just 19.0 PPG. Boise State gained 470 yards against the Cowboys — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. This is not a good matchup for the Broncos since they are so dependent on the arm of quarterback Hank Bachmeier. Boise State only averages 110 rushing YPG with their rushers averaging 2.8 Yards-Per-Carry. Not only are they 117th in rushing YPG but they are 114th in Rush Success Rate. They host this game where they have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total on the blue turf against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Expect plenty of stalled drives tonight as Wyoming and Boise State rank 20th and 29th in the nation in Opponent Finishing Drives. The last four meetings between these two teams have averaged only 37 combined points. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against each other — and there have been 6 straight Unders between these two teams when playing in Boise. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (119) and the Boise State Broncos (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (116) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (115). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-2) has won five of their last six games with their 54-29 win at Duke as a 21-point road favorite on Saturday. North Carolina (5-4) has won two of their last three games with their 58-55 win against Wake Forest as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 home games after a double-digit win against an ACC rival. Led by quarterback Kenny Pickett, the Panthers generated 638 yards of offense against the Blue Devils — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Pitt returns home where they are scoring 46.0 Points-Per-Game and averaging 569.2 total Yards-Per-Game. They are outscoring their guests by +23.4 PPG due to a defense that is only allowing 22.6 PPG. Despite the Panthers being coached by a defensive guru in Pat Narduzzi, they are thriving due to the play of their offense and the emergence of Pickett at quarterback. Pitt has averaged 562.3 total YPG in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after averaging at least 525 YPG in their last three contests. We had North Carolina last Saturday in their victory against the Demon Deacons — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win against an ACC foe and in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are winless in three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games. The weak link for North Carolina is their defense that allows 35.3 PPG and 404.3 total YPG on the road. The Tar Heels do not disrupt the quarterback — they rank 109th in the Pass Rush Pressure Rate. They also don’t protect their quarterback enough with their Havoc Rate Allowed that ranks 106th — and Narduzzi’s defense is 17th in the nation in Havoc Rate.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB North Carolina-Pittsburgh ESPN Special with the Pittsburgh Panthers (116) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (115). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (399) and the Washington Huskies (400). THE SITUATION: Oregon (7-1) has won three straight games after their 52-29 win against Colorado as a 24.5-point favorite last Saturday. Washington (4-4) has won their last two games after their 20-13 upset win at Stanford as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Washington held the Cardinal to just 261 total yards in the victory. The Huskies have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. Washington only gives up 146.9 passing YPG this season — the lowest mark in the nation. The Huskies give up 18.9 PPG and 325.4 total YPG — ranking tied for 18th and 24th in the nation. But the Washington offense is limited after scoring just 19.3 PPG and averaging 315.7 total YPG in their last three games. The Huskies have played 5 straight Unders against winning teams. Additionally, they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Oregon has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while they generated 568 total yards against the Buffaloes last week, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Ducks defense has not allowed more than 117 rushing yards in their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in their last game.  They are holding their opponents to just 3.5 rushing Yards-Per-Carry which will put pressure on Huskies’ quarterback Dylan Morris to move the ball with his arm. Oregon has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Weather will play a role in Seattle tonight — rain is expected with winds at 14 MPH and gusting to 22 MPH. Both of these teams already have limited vertical passing attacks — so the weather will allow both defenses to cheat another defender in the box. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at Washington. 10* CFB Oregon-Washington ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (399) and the Washington Huskies (400). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (394) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (393). THE SITUATION: Purdue (5-3) enters this game coming off three 28-23 upset victory at Nebraska as a 7.5-point underdog last Saturday. Michigan State (8-0) comes off a 37-33 upset win at home against Michigan as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Purdue committed five turnovers two weeks ago in a loss to Wisconsin — but they turned the turnover tables on the Cornhuskers last week by generating a +4 net turnover margin. The Boilermakers handed Iowa their first loss of the season by a 24-7 score in Iowa City three weeks ago. Purdue returns home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games as an underdog. The Boilermakers are stout on defense. They hold their opponents to just 17.1 Points-Per-Game and 313.8 total Yards-Per-Game — ranking tied for 10th and 17th in the nation respectively. They also rank 16th in the nation by averaging 307.0 passing  YPG. This combination of defense and a potent passing attack makes them a dangerous underdog. Purdue has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They may be catching Michigan State on a hangover after their emotional comeback victory against their hated rival Michigan last week. The Spartans were trailing by two touchdowns in the second half before outscoring the Wolverines by a 23-3 margin to pull out the victory. Michigan State has covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. The Spartans defeated Michigan despite getting outgained by -157 net yards. Michigan State surrendered 552 yards in that game. The Achilles’ heel of this team is the play of their defense. Opponents average 424.6 total YPG against them — ranking 101st in the nation. Sparty is particularly vulnerable against the pass as they rank 127th in the nation by allowing 300.5 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan State ranks third in the first College Football Playoff poll which may add some pressure on them for this game as they go from feisty overachievers under second-year head coach Mel Tucker to controlling their destiny to reach the playoffs. The Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in November — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at Purdue. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Purdue Boilermakers (394) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (393). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (340) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (339). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (4-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 44-34 loss at Notre Dame as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Wake Forest (8-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 45-7 victory at home against Duke as a 16-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: The Demon Deacons raced out to a 28-0 halftime lead last week against the Blue Devils — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after taking at least a 24 point lead at halftime of their last game. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Additionally, the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a win by at least four touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a win at home by 28 or more points. Quarterback Sam Hartman had another big game as he completed 24 of 37 passes for 402 yards with three touchdown passes while leading an offense that generated 677 total yards. But Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. Turnover luck has helped the Demon Deacons cause as they have not committed more than one turnover in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not committing more than one turnover in five straight games. Wake Forest has benefited from a soft schedule up to this point. Only Virginia and Army are FBS opponents that they have beaten that currently have winning records. While the Demon Deacons score plenty of points, that has overshadowed their suspect play on defense. They rank 99th in the FBS by allowing 421.5 total YPG. They have allowed their last three opponents to score 33.3 PPG and 474.4 total YPG. In their three road games, they have allowed their home hosts to score 36.7 PPG and average 538.3 total YPG. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on grass (with their home games at Truist Field being played on field turf). North Carolina may possess the most potent offense that they placed all season. The Tar Heels are 12th in the nation by averaging 482.8 total YPG. Sam Howell completed 24 of 31 passes for 341 yards and added another 101 yards on the ground in their loss in South Bend. North Carolina has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road. The Tar Heels did outgain the Fighting Irish last week by 39 yards by generating 564 yards of offense. They should be able to move the ball at will against the Demon Deacons. This team began the season with National Championship aspirations but an opening loss to Virginia Tech changed their realistic expectations. Ruining Wake Forest’s perfect season would give this group something to hang their hats on. North Carolina has not covered the point spread in four of their last five games — but they have then covered the point spread in 33 of their last 50 games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Tar Heels return home where they are 4-1 this season with an average winning margin of +17.2 PPG. They average 45.2 PPG and 512.5 total YPG at home — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest could not stop Howell and the Tar Heels’ offense last season — they lost in Chapel Hill by a 59-53 score. The Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at North Carolina. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Year with the North Carolina Tar Heels (340) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (339). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami (OH) (305) and the Ohio Bobcats (306). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (3-4) has won two in a row after their 24-17 upset win at Ball State as a 3.5-point underdog on October 23rd. Ohio (1-7) has lost three in a row after their 34-27 loss to Kent State as a 5-point underdog on October 23rd.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The RedHawks held the Cardinals to just 329 total yards in that victory. Miami (OH) has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 straight Unders after a point spread victory. Additionally, the RedHawks have played 6 straight games Under the Total after an upset victory against a conference rival. Miami did get quarterback Brett Gabbert back last week after the third-year sophomore quarterback missed the previous two games to injury. While he completed 20 of 24 passes in the win, he is still only completing 58.8% of his passes this season. The RedHawks are scoring only 21.1 PPG — and that average drops to just 17.2 PPG along with a 319.2 total YPG mark in their three previous road games with Gabbert the starter in two of those games. Gabbert is an upgrade over fourth-year sophomore A.J. Mayer  — but Brett is not the prospect that his brother, Blaine, was. Miami (OH) has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 13 of their last 19 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The RedHawks have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total when favored. Ohio has palled 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss. And while the Bobcats generated 457 yards in their loss to the Golden Flashes, they have then played 4 straight Unders after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. This has been a lost season for the Bobcats after the surprise retirement of head coach Frank Solich in July after serving as the head coach for the program for 16 years. Offensive coordinator Tim Albin inked a four-year deal to become the new head coach — but this team is scoring only 21.1 PPG while averaging just 360.1 total YPG. Ohio wants to run the football — they average 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Sophomore Kurtis Rourke, another younger brother of a quarterback with higher stature as he follows Nathan’s career as the Bobcats’ signal-caller, is overseeing an offense that averages just 166.8 passing YPG, 115th in the nation. Rourke will probably struggle against this RedHawks team that ranks 15th in the nation in Havoc Rate. Ohio stays at home where they have played13 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: The weather will be chilly in Athens tonight with temperates dropping into the 30s as the game goes on. Cold weather does not help the passing game — especially when the players are not the best in the world in adapting to harder footballs. Ohio has played 4 straight Unders against Mid-American Conference opponents — and the Under is 10-3-1 in Miami (OH)’s last 14 games in November. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami (OH) (305) and the Ohio Bobcats (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (126) minus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (125). THE SITUATION: North Carolina State (5-2) had their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 31-30 loss at Miami (FL) as a 3.5-point favorite. Louisville (4-3) has won four in a row after a 28-14 win against Boston College as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLFPACK MINUS THE POINTS: NC State suffered their second upset loss this season with their loss to the Hurricanes. But the Wolfpack have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road by three points or less. NC State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Quarterback Devin Leary completed 24 of 42 passes for 310 yards with two touchdown passes and a rushing touchdown in the loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Leary is completing 65% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes and two interceptions. The Wolfpack also has a stout defense. They are fourth in opponent’s Rush Success Rate — and they are allowing only 93.3 rushing YPG which is the tenth lowest in the nation. NC State is also 22nd in the nation in opponent’s Pass Success Rate. They return home where they are 4-0 this season with an average winning margin of +24.0 PPG. They are holding their guests to just 13.8 PPG and 290.3 total YPG — and they are scoring 37.8 PPG and 458.5 total YPG at home. The Wolfpack have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in all 6 games at home against ACC opponents. Louisville held the Eagles to just 266 total yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Despite that good effort, the Cardinals are still allowing 27.0 PPG ranking 76th in the nation — and they have given up at least 30 points four times this season. They lack a pass rush to put pressure on Leary. They also go on the road where they allow their home hosts to average 34.3 PPG and 507.7 YPG. Louisville is just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games on the road — and they are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Cardinals are 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: NC State did not force a turnover last week — but they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after not forcing at least one turnover in their last game. Louisville committed four turnovers last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 44 games after committing at least four turnovers in their last game. 25* CFB Game of the Month with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (126) minus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (125). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (198) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (197). THE SITUATION: Florida (4-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 49-42 upset loss at LSU as a 12.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Georgia (7-0) remained unbeaten with their 30-13 win against Kentucky two Saturdays ago as a 21.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GATORS PLUS THE POINTS: Turnovers did Florida in on the road in Baton Rouge two weeks ago. The Gators suffered a -4 net turnover margin in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games away from home after a game where they committed at least three turnovers. The ex-factor for head coach Dan Mullen is freshman quarterback Anthony Richardson who completed 10 of 19 passes for 167 yards while adding 37 rushing yards with a touchdown on the ground. The bye week should allow them time to develop more plays tailored for the exciting player who is averaging 12.6 Yards-Per-Carry and 18.7 Yards-Per-Completion. Florida gained 488 total yards against the Tigers in the loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Gators have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road after a loss by seven points or less to an SEC rival. Additionally, Florida has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 20 games after a bye week, the Gators have covered the point spread in 14 of these games. Georgia dominated the Wildcats two weeks ago by averaging 8.9 Yards-Per-Play while holding them to 3.5 YPP — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP and limiting their last opponent to 3.75 YPP in their last game. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in five of their seven games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Georgia is outstanding on defense as they have not allowed more than 13 points in a game all season — and they have held their last five opponents to 96 or fewer rushing yards. But the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in four straight games. Georgia has not committed a turnover in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. Quarterback J.T. Daniels is available to play this afternoon — but that may add some chaos into the equation for the favorites who have been riding senior Stetson Bennett for most of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia has the pressure of being the number one ranked team in the nation — and they have never been favored by more than 13 points against Florida in program history. Their 10-7 opening week win against Clemson does not look nearly as impressive two months later. The Gators will have the confidence that they can pull the upset. After playing Alabama close in the SEC Championship Game last year, Florida lost to the Crimson Tide by a 31-29 score as a 14-point underdog back on September 18th this season. And the Gators upset this Bulldogs team last year by a 44-28 score as a 3-point favorite in last year’s World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. 10* CFB Georgia-Florida CBS-TV Special with the Florida Gators (198) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (197). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (139) minus the point(s) versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (140). THE SITUATION: Rutgers (3-4) return to action on a four-game losing streak after their 21-7 upset loss at Northwestern as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Illinois (3-5) has won two of their last three games after their 20-18 upset win at Penn State in nine overtimes as a 24.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SCARLET KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINT(S): The bye week could not come soon enough for head coach Greg Schiano in his second year back coaching the Rutgers program. Injuries had hit both sides of the ball including quarterback Noah Vedral who played against Northwestern despite a nagging arm injury. The Scarlet Knights have already endured most of the brutal part of the Big Ten schedule against the powers in the East Division having played Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State during their recent losing streak. Rutgers has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset loss to a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. And while they managed only 222 total yards against the Wildcats, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games. The Scarlet Knights thrive at defending against the run — they rank 21st in the nation in opponent’s Rushing Success Rate. Illinois is one-dimensional on offense running the ball 58% of the time. They lost quarterback Artur Sitkowksi to a season-ending broken arm in the upset win against the Nittany Lions last week. The former Rutgers transfer took the starting job away from Brandon Peters early in the season. Peters, a former transfer from Michigan, is completing under 49% of his passes while averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt this season. He has not thrown for more than 200 yards this season. There is a reason he left the Wolverines program. The Fighting Illini have passed for just 280 combined yards in their last four games. This group may be due for an emotional letdown after surviving the 2-point contest that their overtime game with Penn State devolved into. The Illini have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win as a double-digit road underdog. The Fighting Illini ran the ball 67 times for 357 yards in the victory — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games at home after rushing for at least 300 yards. They only gained 38 yards in the air last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not passing for more than 75 yards in their last game. They host this game at Memorial Stadium where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 42 or less.

FINAL TAKE: First-year head coach Brett Bielema caught Penn State relying on quarterback Sean Clifford who was not 100% dealing with an undisclosed injury that clearly limited his mobility. Rutgers may be winless in Big Ten play — but they swept their three non-conference games including an impressive victory at Syracuse. The Scarlet Knights have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (139) minus the point(s) versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (140). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (407) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (408). THE SITUATION: USC (3-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-26 upset loss at home to Utah as a 2.5-point favorite on October 9th. Notre Dame (5-1) takes the field again after their 32-29 upset win at Virginia Tech as a 1-point underdog on October 9th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: USC outgained the Utes two weeks ago by seven yards but lost the turnover battle en route to losing the game. The Trojans are 38-17-1 ATS in their last 56 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a double-digit loss at home. USC has also covered the pint spread in 12 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 42 points in their last game. The Trojans are in transition after firing head coach Clay Helton earlier in the season. Interim head coach Donte Williams is auditioning for a head coaching gig moving forward — and both coordinators have plenty to work for regarding future coaching gigs. USC seems to always be inconsistent — but after losing to Utah, the players should be motivated to play in South Bend against an arch-rival on national television. USC has covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And while the Trojans have played three straight Overs, they have then covered the point spread in 13  of their last 16 road games after playing at least three straight overs. Quarterback Kedon Slovis was banged up earlier in the season — but he is getting healthy again. He completed 33 of 53 passes for 401 yards with two touchdowns against a good Utah defense. The extra week of rest should help — and USC has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a bye week. Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a close win by three points or less on the road. That was the Fighting Irish’s third victory this season by just a field goal against mediocre competition after also just getting by Florida State and Toledo before the Hokies. Notre Dame is younger this year — and they are dealing with injuries. This Trojans team has more talent than those three teams they beat by a field goal — USC’s issue is focus. The Irish return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite. Notre Dame pinned their hopes on Wisconsin grad transfer Jack Coan at quarterback who lost his job to the guy struggling under center for the Badgers now. The Fighting Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: USC has lost by just seven and three points — while covering the point spread — in their previous two encounters when unranked against an Irish team ranked in the top-15. 10* CFB USC-Notre Dame NBC-TV Special with the USC Trojans (407) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (408). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma State (383) and the Iowa State Cyclones (384). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (6-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 33-24 upset win at Texas as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Iowa State (4-2) enters this game coming off a 33-20 win at Kansas State as a 6.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys contained the potent Longhorns offense coached by Steve Sarkisian to just 317 total yards last week. This could be the best defensive team under head coach Mike Gundy in Stillwater. Oklahoma State is holding their opponents to just 19.5 Points-Per-Game and 307.2 total Yards-Per-Game this season. They rank ninth in the nation by forcing three-and-outs in 43% of their opponent’s possessions. They also rank 11th in the nation in run stuff rate and 17th in sack rate. But the typical high-powered Cowboys offense under Gundy has been mostly absent this year. Oklahoma State is scoring only 26.5 PPG this season — and they generate just 363.0 YPG on the road. The Cowboys have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Oklahoma State has played 24 of their last 32 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 15 of their last 18 road games as a road underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Iowa State held Kansas State to just 342 total yards in their road victory in that Big 12 rivalry game. The Under is 24-6-2 in their last 32 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 21-6-1 in their last 28 games after a point spread victory. The Cyclones have also played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a win against a Big 12 rival. Iowa State is allowing only 16.3 PPG and 250.7 total YPG this season — and they have held three of their six opponents to 10 points or less. They return home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Cyclones have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when favored by no more than seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma State won last year’s meeting in a relatively low-scoring 24-21 victory in Stillwater back on October 24th. The Under is 19-6-1 in Iowa State’s last 26 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CFB Big 12 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma State (383) and the Iowa State Cyclones (384). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (358) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (357). THE SITUATION: Army (4-2) has lost two games in a row after their 20-14 loss at Wisconsin as a 14-point underdog last Saturday. Wake Forest (6-0) returns to action after surviving a 40-37 win at Syracuse in overtime on October 9th as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Army opened the season winning their first four games before getting upset at Ball State two weeks ago before their challenging trip to Madison to play the Badgers. The Black Knights managed only 266 total yards last week against the stout Wisconsin run defense — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not gaining at least 275 yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. Army once again is one of the best rushing teams in the nation as they are averaging 295 rushing Yards-Per-Game with a 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Now Army returns home where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Black Knights have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. Army also plays tough defense. They are allowing only 20.7 PPG along with 281.7 total YPG — and they have held four of their six opponents to 21 points or less. Army limited Wisconsin to just 310 yards last week. Wake Forest remained unbeaten two weeks ago with their victory at Syracuse despite being outgained by -88 net yards. The Demon Deacons were also outgained by Louisville three weeks ago but also survived that game with a narrow win by a field goal. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by three points or less on the road. Quarterback Sam Hartman did complete 19 of 32 passes for 330 yards against the Orange — but the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last  8 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The play of the Wake Forest defense is a significant cause for concern after allowing the Cardinals and Orange to each generate over 500 yards. Both Louisville and Syracuse exposed the Wake Forest run defense by generating 213 and 354 rushing yards. Head coach Dave Clawson does have the extra week to prepare for the unique Army spread triple offense — but how much can be done to fix a defense that is allowing 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry? The Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the ACC. Wake Forest stays on the road for the second straight game where they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in then 52.5 to 56 point range. Additionally, the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games when favored by up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: Army has been an underdog against a Power Five conference team 9 times since 2016. They have covered the point spread in 7 of these games with two upset victories. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Army Black Knights (358) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Appalachian State Mountaineers (308) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (307). THE SITUATION: Appalachian State (4-2) looks to bounce-back from their 41-13 upset loss at Louisiana-Lafayette as a 4-point favorite last Tuesday. Coastal Carolina (6-0) remained unbeaten this season by winning their seventh game in their last eighteen since the start of last season with their 52-20 victory at Arkansas State as a 20-point favorite back on October 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Appalachian State was flat on the road against a Ragin’ Cajuns team motivated to avenge a loss against them last year. We had Louisiana last week in that spot — and that loss sets up a nice situation for the Mountaineers. Head coach Shawn Clark can still have his team in the driver’s seat to win the Sub Belt East Division with a victory tonight. Appalachian State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a conference opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by 20 or more points — and in their three losses by at least four touchdowns in program history, they have responded to cover the point spread all 3 times. The Mountaineers have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Appalachian State returned ten starters and their top seven tacklers from their defense that was 18th in the nation by allowing only 328.8 total YPG. The bigger concerns may be on offense after former Clemson and Duke transfer quarterback Chase Brice may have played the worst game of his career by throwing two interceptions to the Ragin’ Cajuns while completing 15 of 27 passes for only 135 yards. The Mountaineers are banged up at running back as well with Camerun Peoples missing the last two games and Daetrick Harrington and Nate Noel questionable. Former Notre Dame transfer Jahmir Smith is healthy — so Appalachian State still has talent at the position even if all three of those other backs cannot take the field. The Mountaineers rank 20th in the nation in Offensive Success Rate. They should play better. Coastal Carolina had failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. And while sophomore quarterback Grayson McCall completed 18 of 23 passes for 365 yards against the Red Wolves — but the Chanticleers have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after passing for at least 325 yards in their last game. Coastal Carolina has benefited from a soft early schedule — their wins have come against one FCS program in The Citadel and just one FBS team in Kansas. Their Group of Five campaign so far has been against Massachusetts, UL-Monroe, Buffalo, and then Arkansas State. This is — by far — their biggest test this season after being a two-touchdown favorite or better in their first six games. The Chanticleers are playing their second straight game on the road — and playing in hostile environments is not a normal occurrence for this team that benefited from limited crowds in their road games during the pandemic in their 11-1 season a year ago. Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: Appalachian State is not an underdog often when playing at home at Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone. The Mountaineers have lost only five times at home since 2015. Appalachian State has covered the point s spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 10 points. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Appalachian State Mountaineers (308) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (198) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (197). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 37-31 loss to Oklahoma two weeks ago on October 2nd as a 12-point underdog. Iowa State (3-2) has won two of their last three games after their 59-7 win against Kansas as a 34.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas State lost to the Sooners despite outgaining them by +28 net yards. Quarterback Skylar Thomson completed 29 of 41 passes for 320 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions in a losing effort. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Kansas State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their las 5 games after losing two of their last three games. This program under head coach Bill Snyder and now Chris Klieman have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a bye week. They stay at home where they are scoring 33.3 PPG and outgaining their guests by +66.3 net Yards-Per-Game. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as an underdog. Kansas State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games as a dog overall — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against Big 12 opponents. And in their last 55 games in October, the Wildcats are 37-16-2 ATS. Iowa State may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 28 or more points. Additionally, the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 50 points in their last game. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. After committing four turnovers in their showdown with Iowa last month, the Cyclones have not committed more than one turnover in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. Now this team goes on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas State has likely had this game circled after getting embarrassed in Ames last year where the Cyclones crushed them by a 45-0 score. The Wildcats will have revenge on their mind — and they upset Iowa State two years ago in Manhattan by a 27-17 score as a 4-point underdog. 25* CFB Saturday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Kansas State Wildcats (198) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (197). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (181) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (182). THE SITUATION: Purdue (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-13 upset loss to Minnesota as a 1.5-point favorite last Saturday. Iowa (6-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 23-20 win against Penn State as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Boilermakers lost to the Golden Gophers despite holding them to just 300 total yards. Purdue has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a  home favorite against a Big Ten opponent. And while quarterback Aidan O’Connell completed 34 of 52 passes for 371 yards in the losing effort, they have then played 4 straight Unders after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Boilermakers have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in three straight games. Purdue has an underrated defense that is fifth in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate and tenth in points allowed per drive. They are allowing 15.4 PPG and 299.6 total YPG. But the Boilermakers’ offense is scoring just 23.6 PPG and only 5.5 Yards-Per-Play. They average just 90.2 rushing YPG with a 2.9 Yards-Per-Carry rushing clip. Furthermore, they play at a very slow pace averaging 25.5 seconds per play. They go back on the road where they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Purdue has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against conference opponents. Iowa beat the Nittany Lions despite only gaining 305 yards in that game — but they held Penn State to just 287 total yards. The Hawkeyes have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win at home against a Big Ten foe. Iowa has also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Iowa has covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Hawkeyes are not efficient on offense with just a 36.5% success rate. They also play at a slow pace as they average 29.2 seconds-per-play. Iowa may score 31.5 PPG but they are generating just 317.5 total YPG. But the Hawkeyes’ defense is elite as they hold their opponents to just 13.0 PPG and 270.4 total YPG. They are tenth in the nation by allowing just 90.3 rushing YPG. Iowa has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Under is also 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games when favored — and they had played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when laying 10.5 to 21 points.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in October — and Purdue has played 5 straight Unders in October. While the number in the low-40s for this game makes the Under bet ominous, both these teams have great defenses and limited offenses that play at a slow pace. The first team to 20 points probably wins. 25* CFB Big Ten Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (181) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (182). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (174) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (173). THE SITUATION: Texas (4-2) looks to rebound from their 55-48 loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry as a 4-point underdog last Saturday. Oklahoma State (5-0) remained undefeated two weeks ago with their 24-114 win against Baylor as a 4-point favorite on October 2nd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas blew a 41-23 lead to lose to the Sooners last week. The Longhorns did eclipse the 45 point mark last week for the third time this season. Under first-year head coach Steve Sarkisian, Texas has been explosive on offense averaging 44.5 PPG, fifth-best in the nation. Sarkisian has one of the best running backs in the nation in Bijan Robinson who is third in the nation in rushing yards. But this offense became even more potent when Sarkisian moved to Casey Thompson as his starting quarterback. The fourth-year junior averaged 11.4 Yards-Per-Attempt last week against the Sooners’ defense. He completed 20 of 34 passes for 388 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. The Longhorns are scoring 52 PPG and generating 547.3 total YPG since Thompson became the starting quarterback. Texas has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Texas is also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Longhorns averaged 8.6 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP in their last game. Texas did not commit more than one turnover last week for the sixth straight time this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not committing more than one turnover in four straight games. Oklahoma State committed three turnovers in their win against the Bears two weeks ago — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after committing at least three turnovers in their last game. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Oklahoma State is playing great defense this season — they are holding their opponents to 18.6 PPG. But despite that nice number, they rank just 105th in the nation in tackling effectiveness — a daunting metric when now facing Robinson who broke ten tackles last week. And while the Cowboys have not allowed more than 123 rushing yards this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in at least four straight games. The Oklahoma State offense will struggle to keep up with the Longhorns. Their four victories against FBS opponents were by only 1, 5, 10, and 11 points. They are scoring just 25.4 PPG and averaging only 3.7 rushing Yards-Per-Carry. Quarterback Spencer Sanders has only thrown for five touchdown passes in five games — and he has committed six turnover-worthy plays. He threw three picks against Baylor in his last game. Now this team goes on the road for just the second time all season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 road games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Texas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when favored. Look for the unbeaten Cowboys to get exposed this afternoon. 10* CFB Oklahoma State-Texas Fox-TV Special with the Texas Longhorns (174) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (173). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (108) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (107). THE SITUATION: Louisiana (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 20-18 win at South Alabama as a 12-point favorite on October 2nd. Appalachian State (4-1) has won three games in a row with their 45-16 win against Georgia State as a 10.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisiana is not being given much respect by bettors after three of their victories have been by eight points or less. The Ragin’ Cajuns have only covered the point spread in a 49-14 blowout win against Ohio this season — by they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. The team misses their running back duo from last season in Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas who moved on to the NFL (with Mitchell now a primary back for San Francisco). But in head coach Billy Napier I trust — and he has a senior-laden team with 20 starters back from last year’s group that qualified for the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game for the third straight season. The offense is led by fifth-year senior and third-year starter Levi Lewis who has won a bunch of games for this team. The dual-threat quarterback only passed for 49 yards last week — but Louisiana has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not passing for more than 75 yards in their last game. Lewis is completing 62.7% of his passes with only one interception in his 150 pass attempts. The Ragin’ Cajun defense has not allowed more than 24 points in their last four games after giving up 38 points in their opening game loss at Texas to begin the season. Louisiana has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. And after playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 home games when getting up to 7 points. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by 21 or more points against a conference rival. The Mountaineers generated 502 yards against the Panthers last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Second-year head coach Shawn Clark has 17 starters back from the team that finished 9-3 last year. But they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Louisiana had lost all eight of their games with Appalachian State since 2014 -- including twice in 2019 including the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game — before avenging that loss last season with a 24-21 upset win in Boone on December 4th as a 3-point underdog. This is a crucial game for the Mountaineers who have Coastal Carolina on deck and little wiggle-room in the SBC West Division to take a loss. As it is, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when favored. The Ragin’ Cajuns are in better shape in the East Division to reach the championship game for a fourth straight season (last year’s game was a COVID cancellation) — but the Mountaineers remain their white whale even after last year’s triumph. Expect a close game with Louisiana in a position to win late. 10* CFB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (108) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (347) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (348). THE SITUATION: Utah (2-2) comes off a 24-13 win against Washington State as a 15-point favorite back on September 25th. USC (3-2) beat Colorado by a 37-14 score in Boulder as a 9.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES PLSU THE POINTS: Utah lost two non-conference games at BYU and San Diego State — but they are unbeaten in Pac-12 play. Head coach Kyle Whittingham will have his team ready to play with an extra week to rest and prepare. The Utes have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 57 games after a bye week. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win in conference play. Utah has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win in Pac-12 play. The Utes defense is consistently good — and they are allowing only 22.3 PPG and 304.0 total YPG despite a challenging early schedule. Utah has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. They are stable at quarterback now under sixth-year senior Cameron Rising being the clear starter after Charlie Brewer left the team (after losing this job). Now this team goes on the road where they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games against teams with a winning record. Utah is 46-22-2 ATS in their last 70 games as an underdog — and they are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 road games as an underdog. The Utes have covered the point spread in 7 straight games in October under Whittingham. USC may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Interim head coach Donte Williams called out his team this week despite the victory given the group’s loose play with fumbles, penalties, and too many celebrations. The players are behaving like they have a substitute teacher — and that is not a good way to then play a well-coached team like Utah. The Trojans are 1-2 at home in the Coliseum where they are getting outscored by a field goal and surrendering 31.3 PPG and 428.7 total YPG. USC has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games when favored by up to a field goal.

FINAL TAKE: Utah will be motivated to avenge a 33-17 loss at home to USC last season as a 1-point underdog. The Utes have cord the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games under Whittingham in conference play. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Utah Utes (347) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (348). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (359) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (360). THE SITUATION: LSU (3-2) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 24-19 upset loss at home to Auburn as a 3-point favorite. Kentucky (5-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 20-13 upset win at home against Florida as a 7.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: LSU suffered their second upset loss this season after opening the year with an upset loss at UCLA. The Tigers have been resilient under head coach Ed Orgeron. LSU has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after an upset loss to an SEC rival as a home favorite — and they have covered the point spread 16 of their last 22 games on the road after an upset loss. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, LSU has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Tigers are scoring 31.4 PPG this season. They are getting good play from sophomore quarterback Max Johnson who is completing 62.4% of their passes with 16 touchdowns. He completed 26 of 46 passes for 325 yards in the loss to Auburn. LSU’s defense gave up 453 yards to Auburn — but they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Despite the loss, they have not given up more than 25 points in four straight games. The Tigers go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 road games against teams with a winning record at home. LSU has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games in October. Kentucky enjoyed their biggest victory of the season buy upsetting the Gators — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after an upset victory against an SEC rival where they were getting at least six points. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win at home against a conference rival. Kentucky pulled off the upset despite getting outgained by -158 net yards and losing the first down battle, 21-13.3 The Wildcats upset a Florida team that was competitive against Alabama — but they also only beat UT-Chattanooga by five points despite being a 31-point favorite. Kentucky is living dangerously with a -9 net turnover margin. They have only forced three turnovers all season with one takeaway in three games. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not forcing more than one turnover in five straight games.

FINAL TAKE: This is an important game for this LSU program since they will likely be underdogs in the subsequent three games over a difficult stretch where they play Florida then at Mississippi and at Alabama. 25* CFB SEC Underdog of the Month with the LSU Tigers (359) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (360). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (341) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (342). THE SITUATION: Boise State (2-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 41-31 upset loss at home to Nevada as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. BYU (5-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 34-20 victory at Utah State as an 8.5-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Boise State outgained the Wolf Pack by +57 yards but they were undone by a -3 net turnover margin. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after playing a game where they had a -3 or worse net turnover margin. Boise State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two of their last three contests. It has been a disappointing start for new head coach Andy Avalos — but his team has played a tough schedule. Their three losses were to Oklahoma State, Central Florida, and then a solid Nevada team last week. Boise State can rack up points with Hank Bachmeier under center. They rank 17th in Success Rate in the passing game with a star wide receiver in Khalil Shakir and Bachmeier averaging 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt. He completed 34 of 48 passes for 388 yards with four touchdowns against the Wolf Pack. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread 7 of their last 8 games on the road as an underdog. BYU got the benefit of a +2 net turnover margin in their win against the Aggies on October 1st. The Cougars have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games at home after a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. BYU has only committed two turnovers all season — and they have not turned the ball over in their last two games. But the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not turning the ball over in two straight games. BYU is only outgaining their opponents by +27.0 net Yards-Per-Game this season. Boise State should be able to move the ball in the air against this Cougars defense that ranks 98th in Success Rate in the passing game. BYU is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games when favored — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. 

FINAL TAKE: The Cougars are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Boise State Broncos (341) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (342). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Charlotte 49ers (309) and the Florida International Golden Panthers (310). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 24-14 loss at Illinois as a 10-point underdog last Saturday. FIU (1-4) has lost nine of their last ten games going back to last season after a 58-21 loss at FAU as a 10.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Charlotte managed only 263 yards of offense against the Fighting Illini defense — but they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after gaining at least 275 yards in their last game. The 49ers have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. They are scoring 26.8 Points-Per-Game while generating 411.8 total YPG. Quarterback Chris Reynolds is averaging a robust 8.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game with 11 touchdown passes. He faces a porous Golden Panthers pass defense that lacks a pass rush and allows opposing quarterbacks to average 8.9 YPA. FIU is giving up 41.5 PPG and 555.8 total YPG. They have allowed at least 397 passing yards against their last three opponents. Charlotte has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as a favorite. FIU has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 18 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. The Owls generated a whopping 704 yards against them last week — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. After playing their last three games on the road, they return home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Between Max Bortenschlager and Grayson Games, they passed for 319 yards last week — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. They face a suspect 49ers defense that ranks 111th in the nation in Big Plays Allowed. Charlotte is surrendering 7.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — 125th in the FBS. Their run defense is giving up 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry and a whopping 255 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total. Expect a competitive and high-scoring game. 25* CFB Friday CBS Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Charlotte 49ers (309) and the Florida International Golden Panthers (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (304) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (303). THE SITUATION: Tulane (1-4) looks to bounce-back from their 52-29 upset loss at East Carolina as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Houston (4-1) won their fourth game in a row after their 45-10 upset victory at Tulsa as a 3.5-point underdog last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE PLUS THE POINTS: Tulane has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. The Green Wave has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss by 20 or more points under head coach Willie Fritz. Tulane started the season with optimism with 16 starters back from a team that finished 6-6 after losing to Navy, SMU, and Tulsa on the final play of the game. A 40-35 loss in Norman at Oklahoma to begin the season was encouraging before they crushed Morgan State. They had a tough assignment at Ole Miss the next week — but they have been favored the last two weeks at home against UAB and then at East Carolina last week. The schedule has been a challenge. Turnovers are killing this team — they are fourth in the nation by averaging three turnovers per game with second-year freshman quarterback Michael Plitt responsible for nine of them. The defense is getting mauled — but the schedule has not helped. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Tulane has been a much more reliable team at home under Fritz where they are 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 games. The Green Wave have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games as an underdog. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in October. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Houston has had just a 7-13 record in the first two seasons under head coach Dana Holgorsen. He has talent with a bevy of transfers adding to his slew of redshirts from two seasons ago when he shut a bunch of players down in his first year with the team after four games to maintain their eligibility. After a 17-point loss at home Texas Tech, a favorable schedule against Rice, Grambling, a struggling Navy team, and then the Golden Hurricane has helped them put up great numbers on both sides of the football. But in Houston’s last 16 games on the road when favored, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The home team has won and covered the point spread in the last four meetings between these two teams. Fritz will remind his team of their 49-31 loss at Houston last season. 10* CFB Houston-Tulane ESPN Special with the Tulane Green Wave (304) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (214) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (213). THE SITUATION: Middle Tennessee (1-3) looks to rebound from their 42-39 loss at Charlotte as a 2.5-point underdog last Friday. Marshall (2-2) comes off a 31-30 loss at Appalachian State as a 7-point underdog last Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Middle Tennessee has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss to a Conference USA rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow loss to a conference opponent by seven points or less. After winning their opening game at home at Monmouth, the Blue Raiders have lost three in a row — all on the road — to Virginia Tech, UTSA, and the 49ers last week. Tough stretch. Veteran head coach Rick Stockstill will tell his team to take advantage of playing back at home at Floyd Stadium since they head back on another three-game road swing. This is the middle of a brutal stretch where six of their seven games are away from home. Middle Tennessee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in October under Stockstill, coaching the team in his sixteenth season. Quarterback Bailey Hockman left the team after the loss at UTSA to tend his new family — but the Blue Raiders are in fine hands under Chase Cunningham. The redshirt junior completed 28 of 40 passes for 379 yards and five touchdowns without an interception last week. Middle Tennessee needs to shore up their defense after allowing 559 yards including 330 yards in the air. The Blue Raiders have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a point spread win. The Thundering Herd got outgained by -169 net yards after surrendering 566 yards to the Mountaineers last week. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after getting outgained by at least 125 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. The Thundering Herd has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Former Alabama running backs coach Charles Huff is in his first season as the Marshall head coach — but his football team has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when favored including four of these last five situations. Stockstill has 19 starters back from the team that lost at Marshall last November 14th by a 42-14 score. Expect a close game. 10* CFB Big Dog Surprise with the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (214) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (213). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Southern Eagles (204) minus the point(s) versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (203). THE SITUATION: Georgia Southern (1-3) has lost three straight games after their 28-20 loss to Louisiana as a 14.5-point underdog last Saturday. Arkansas State (1-3) has also lost their last three games after their 41-34 loss at Tulsa as a 14.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINT(S): Georgia Southern won the yardage battle, 453 to 378, against a Ragin’ Cajuns team that fancies themselves as the best Group of Five football team in the nation this season (despite an opening loss at Texas). But after blowout losses on the road at FAU and Arkansas before that loss, the Eagles administration decided to relieve head coach Chad Lunsford of his duties. Georgia Southern has not been satisfied with its football program since Willie Fritz left for Tulane in 2016. They brought in Colorado State defensive coordinator Tyson Summers but he was not a good fit for the program. Lunsford took over midway through Summers’ second season after a disastrous 0-6 start. The longtime assistant did a fine job of re-establishing the culture that Fritz had established — but he was probably not the coach to keep this program at the level it had been under Fritz. Georgia Southern will likely take a long time in conducting a national search to correct the mistake they made in tapping Summers over five years ago. Cornerbacks coach Kevin Whitley takes over as the interim head coach in the meantime. Lunsford was liked by the players — but his firing also called out the 16 starters returning from last year’s 8-5 team. Look for this team to rally around each other — and Whitley — in this important game for the program. As it is, the Eagles have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a Sun Belt Conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 home games when playing with six days or less of rest. Furthermore, Georgia Southern has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Arkansas State covered the two-touchdown spread against the Golden Hurricane last week benefitting from a 63-yard punt return for a touchdown and a 93-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. But the Red Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread win. Arkansas State surrendered a whopping 663 yards of offense to Tulsa while getting outgained by 304 net yards. The Red Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Arkansas State surrendered 8.96 Yards-Per-Play last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing their last opponent to generate at least 7.25 YPP. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games coming off a road game where both teams scored at least 31 points. Arkansas State opened their season by defeating Central Arkansas, an FCS opponent. After losing by just five points to Memphis, they got housed on the road at Washington two weeks ago by a 52-3 score against a previously winless Huskies team.

FINAL TAKE: This is a tough situational spot for the Red Wolves with this being their third straight game away from home and out-of-state. And Whitley will be able to squeeze out some extra motivation from his team by reminding them of their 38-33 loss at Arkansas State two years ago as a 1-point underdog in their last meeting on November 23rd of 2019. 20* CFB Saturday Discounted Deal with the Georgia Southern Eagles (204) minus the point(s) versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (203). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (165) and the Stanford Cardinal (166). THE SITUATION: Oregon (4-0) has won their first four games of the season with their 41-19 win against Arizona as a 29.5-point favorite last Saturday. Stanford (2-2) looks to bounce back from heir 35-24 loss at home to UCLA as a 3.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Ducks have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight-road games Over the Total after a win at home. Oregon has also played 4 straight Overs after a blowout win by 20 or more points. The Ducks’ offense is predicated on running the football under head coach and former Alabama offensive line coach Mario Cristobal. Oregon averages 5.2 rushing Yards-Per-Carry to lead them to generate 204 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they will be running against a porous Cardinal run defense that is allowing their opponents to average 5.2 YPC. The Ducks are scoring 38.8 PPG — and they have scored at least 31 points in all four of their games. Oregon’s defense would have surrendered more points if not for the Wildcats’ five turnovers last week — Arizona gouged them for 435 total yards. As it is, the Ducks have played 6 straight games Over the Total after allowing no more than 20 points in their last game. Fresno State and Ohio State scored 24 and 28 points respectively — so Stanford scoring in the mid-20s as a floor is a reasonable expectation. Oregon has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total when the favorite. Stanford has played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Cardinal has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Stanford went into the locker room at halftime trailing by a 21-7 score — but Tanner McKee rallied the team in the third quarter with two unanswered touchdowns to tie the game. The sophomore quarterback completed 19 of 32 passes for 293 yards and three touchdown passes. He also added 42 yards on the ground. Since McKee took over the starting job after the Cardinal’s 24-7 opening loss at Kansas State, Stanford is scoring 35.7 PPG and averaging 385.7 total YPG — and the Cardinal scored 42 and 41 points on the road against both USC and Vanderbilt. McKee is completing 68% of his passes without an interception — and head coach David Shaw appears very comfortable with the offense revolving around his arm, especially with some injuries at running back. While the final score against the Bruins finished just under the 60.5 point total, Stanford has played 7 straight Overs after playing an Under in their last game. The Cardinal defense has not been great — they are allowing 27.5 PPG and 401.3 total YPG. Stanford stays at home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total. The Cardinal has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon scored five touchdowns last season in their 35-14 victory at Eugene with the Total closing around 40. These two teams have played 11 of their last 16 meetings Over the Total. The Ducks are 8-point road favorites — but Stanford should be a feisty dog that will push them to score more points. 25* CFB Pac-12 Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (165) and the Stanford Cardinal (166). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (415) and the Washington Huskies (416). THE SITUATION: California (1-2) won their first game of the season last week with their 42-30 victory against Sacramento State as a 23.5-point favorite. Washington (1-2) got their first victory of the year last week as well after their 52-3 win against Arkansas State as a 17.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies only scored 17 combined points in their first two games against Eastern Washington and Michigan before their offensive outburst against the Red Wolves. But the Under is 11-4-1 in Washington’s last 16 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total at home after scoring at least 42 points. The Huskies generated 598 yards last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Head coach Jimmy Lake is a defensive coach who wears “Run the Damn Ball” baseball caps to communicate his philosophy. He hired the former Penn State offensive coordinator John Donovan who could not get work after a failed stint there under head coach James Franklin before being replaced by Joe Moorehead who had an immediate impact on the their offensive production by bringing the Nittany Lions into the 21st century. Sophomore Dylan Morris has been inconsistent this season but he does come off his best game. What remains dominant is the Washington defense that has elite future NFL talent in defensive end Zion Tupola-Fetui and cornerback Trent McDuffie. Washington is allowing only 15.7 PPG and 295.7 total YPG. They held Arkansas State to just 268 total yards — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Under is also 18-7-1 in the Huskies’ last 26 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Furthermore. Washington has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 12 of their last 14 games in September Under the Total. Cal rushed for 248 yards last week in their victory — and they have played 4 straight Unders after rushing for at least 200 yards. The Golden Bears will look to run the football in this game to control time of possession. Quarterback Chase Garbers completed 22 of 34 passes for 288 yards last week — and Cal has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Bears gave up 467 yards last week to Sacramento State — but they have then played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after giving up at least 450 yards in their last contest. Head coach Justin Wilcox returns eight starters from a unit that held their opponent’s 67 Yards-Per-Game below their season average, 18th best in the nation. Cal goes back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Golden Bears have upset the Huskies in the last two meetings between these two teams with 39 and 22 combined points scored in those games. These two teams have played 10 of 11 meetings Under the Total including 6 straight Unders when playing in Seattle. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (415) and the Washington Huskies (416). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (387) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (388). THE SITUATION: UTSA (3-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 27-13 victory against Middle Tennessee as an 11.5-point favorite last Saturday. Memphis (3-0) comes off a 31-28 upset win at home against Mississippi State as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Tigers were very fortunate to pull off the upset victory against an SEC opponent last week. They needed a 49-yard interception return for a touchdown and a 94-yard punt return for a touchdown to overcome them getting outgained by -222 net yards. Memphis only gained 246 yards and 12 first downs in the game. Now off the emotional high from a signature win against a Power-Five conference opponent and with a date at conference rival Temple next week, this is a dangerous sandwich game against a talented UTSA squad that has had this game circled to make the statement they hope to make this season. As it is, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. After Brady White graduated, head coach Ryan Silverfield hoped to place another former Arizona State transfer under center in Grant Gunnell — but a preseason leg injury has kept him out of action. Silverfield has turned to true freshman Seth Henigan as his starting quarterback. While the rookie has passed for 841 yards, he struggled last week by passing for just 159 yards despite completing 16 of 28 passes. The running game did not offer much help either as the Tigers ran for just 87 yards on 25 carries. The Memphis pass defense has been exposed so far this season as well — they rank 102nd in opponent’s Pass Success Rate and 82nd in Havoc Rate. The Tigers do have a 17-game winning streak at home at the Liberty Bowl — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. UTSA wants to claim the prize of being the best Group of Five teams in the nation. Second-year head coach Jeff Taylor has 21 starters back from the team that finished 7-5 that only lost to Louisiana by a 31-24 score in the First Responder Bowl. They opened their season by upsetting Illinois on the road. The Roadrunners returned their top 14 tacklers from last year and added three transfers from Power-Five programs. They held the Blue Raiders to just 199 yards last week. The offense has all five starters back on the offensive line plus both quarterbacks who played last year. Dual-threat Frank Harris ran for 56 yards last week — and he completed 24 of 39 passes for 264 yards with two touchdown passes. Running back Sincere McCormick rushed for 1476 yards last season. Traylor did not have the benefit of spring practices due to COVID — so this season has presented his first offseason with the program from the former SMU running backs coach. UTSA has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Roadrunners have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: UTSA has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored. UTSA wants to make a similar statement that the Tigers were fortunate to make last week. With Memphis perhaps looking ahead to American Athletic Conference play — and relying on a true freshman in what may become an anxious game — don’t be surprised if the Roadrunners pull the upset (but take the points for some insurance). 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (387) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (388). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (390) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (389). THE SITUATION: TCU (2-0) is undefeated so far this season after their 34-32 win against California two weeks ago as an 11.5-point favorite. SMU (3-0) is also unbeaten this year after their 39-37 win at Louisiana Tech last Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS MINUS THE POINTS: TCU outgained the Golden Bears by a 505-442 yardage mark two weeks ago — but Max Duggan throwing an 84-yard interception that was returned for a touchdown helped Cal stay competitive in the game. TCU controlled possession for 36:23 minutes in the game which is a good sign for head coach Gary Patterson. The extra week to rest and prepare for the Mustangs will help the defensive mastermind shore up a unit that gave up an uncharacteristic 442 total yards. TCU has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 43 of their last 68 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Horned Frogs gained 505 total yards against Cal — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game. TCU’s offense had to overcome many injuries early in the season last year. After a rough 1-3 start, the Horned Frogs finished strong by winning five of their last six games — so they enter this contest on a seven of eight-run overall. Duggan is a third-year sophomore quarterback who looks poised for a breakout season. He completed 17 of 31 passes for 2234 yards with three touchdowns against Cal while adding 71 rushing yards with another touchdown on the ground. Running back Zach Evans added 190 rushing yards in that game. The Horned Frogs’ defense should play better with seven starters back from the unit that allowed 24.2 PPG and 351 total Yards-Per-Game. TCU hosts this game where they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games when favored. SMU got a 33-yard hail mary touchdown pass from quarterback Tanner Mordecai on the final play of the game to avoid being upset by Louisiana Tech last weekend. But the Mustangs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road after a victory where they did not cover the point spread — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 21 games after a close win decided by three points or less. The defense for head coach Sonny Dykes looks to be a problem once again this season. After giving up 506 yards to North Texas two weeks ago, Louisiana Tech generated 483 yards. Now they face another spread offensive attack but now with Power-Five conference recruits. The deeper metrics indict the unit. The Mustangs are just 88th in the nation in Adjusted Line Yards allowed indicating their struggles in stopping the run. They rank 74th in opponent’s Success Rate against the pass — and they are just 96th in Havoc Rate on defense. They have allowed 384 and 351 passing yards in their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 325 passing yards in their last game. SMU stays on the road for the second straight week where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. The Mustangs have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in expected high-scoring games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Patterson has had two weeks to pound into his team the memory of their 41-38 loss at home to SMU back on September 21st in the last meeting between these two teams. TCU was a 7.5-point favorite in that game. 25* CFB Saturday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the TCU Horned Frogs (390) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (389). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (308) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (307). THE SITUATION: Virginia (2-1) lost the first game of their season last Saturday with their 59-39 loss at North Carolina as a 7.5-point underdog. Wake Forest (3-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 35-14 victory at home against Florida State as a 4.5-point favorite as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS MINUS THE POINTS: Virginia was facing a Tar Heels team already with one loss on the season highly motivated to avenge a loss from last year — so that was a tough situation (and we had North Carolina in that one). The Cavaliers have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Virginia generated 574 yards against the Tar Heels defense in the loss — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Now the Cavaliers return home where they have won 19 of their last 21 games under head coach Bronco Mendenhall. Virginia may have been just 5-5 last year in the season impacted by COVID following their big 2019 campaign where they made it to the ACC Championship Game and played in the Orange Bowl — but they were 5-1 straight-up at home. The Cavaliers are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home when favored. Virginia is also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Mendenhall has 14 starters back plus some high-profile transfers back this season that won four of their last five games after a rough 1-4 start in an injury-riddled campaign. Junior quarterback Brennan Armstrong is back after he passed for at least 200 yards while rushing for at least 45 yards six times last year. He completed 39 of 54 passes for 554 yards with four touchdown passes against North Carolina last week. The play of the Virginia defense should improve under Mendenhall who is one of the best defensive teachers in the nation. The Cavaliers are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games against teams with a winning record. Wake Forest comes off a big win against a reeling Seminoles team that remains winless this season — and they benefited from a +4 net turnover margin in that contest. Now the Demon Deacons play their first game away from Winston Salem this season — and they are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road this season. Wake Forest has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Demon Deacons are tough to beat at home where they now have an 11-2 straight-up record in the last three seasons — but they have only won three of their last eleven games on the road during that span. Head coach Dave Clawson has 19 starters back from the group that finished 4-5 last year after a 45-28 loss to Wisconsin in the Mayo Bowl. Wake Forest was 3-4 in ACC play — but they were outgained by -55 net Yards-Per-Game. They were also outscored by -23 Points-Per-Game in their eight games against FBS opponents last year. They allowed 37 or more points five times last season. Their first two games this season were against Old Dominion and Norfolk State before their victory against Florida State last week. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia will be motivated to avenge a 40-23 loss at Wake Forest as a 2.5-point underdog last season on October 17th. After the Cavaliers lost to a one-loss Tar Heels team playing at home with the opportunity to avenge a loss from last year, now Virginia finds themselves in that same spot. While that scenario is certainly not an auto-bet situation, the Cavaliers are tough at home at Scott Stadium and the Demon Deacons struggle on the road. 25* CFB Friday Television Game of the Month with the Virginia Cavaliers (308) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (203) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (204). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (2-1) comes off a 63-10 victory against Cal-Poly SLO last week as a 32.5-point favorite on Saturday. UCLA (2-0) returns to action after their 38-27 upset win at home against LSU as a 1-point underdog two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bruins have been hearing about how good they all are for the last two weeks and how they are destined to play for the Pac-12 Championship. After head coach Chip Kelly compiled a 10-21 record in his first three seasons with the program, the only place to go was up. But handling the weight of expectations is new to these players. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored. It has been as close to an ideal start as possible for this team. They have yet to commit a turnover — and they are holding their opponents to just 5.8 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. But perhaps their first two opponents were just not very good. Hawai’i just lost to Oregon State by a 45-27 score last week. LSU is a mess and probably overconfident in that game playing a Pac-12 program that finished 3-4 last season. Senior quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson still has his shaky moments. The Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Fresno State is dangerous — as they demonstrated in a 31-24 loss at Oregon, the team that then upset Ohio State in Columbus the next week. Some critics discount that result as the Ducks looking ahead to the Buckeyes — but I don’t buy it. The Bulldogs rebounded from that loss to beat their last two opponents by a 108-10 point margin. Fresno State should enter this game with confidence as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win by 20 or more points. Head coach Kalen DeBoer has 19 starters back from the team that finished 3-3. For the third straight season, the Bulldogs averaged at least 30 Points-Per-Game with their 32.8 PPG scoring mark. Led by senior quarterback Jake Haener once again after he lead the Mountain West Conference by averaging 336.8 passing YPG, Fresno State is scoring 44.0 PPG this year. The former Washington transfer completed 17 of 22 passes last week for 380 yards and four touchdowns while leading the offense to 671 yards of offense. The Bulldogs are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games after gaining at least 280 yards in the air in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 39 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. With 1st-Team All-Mountain West Conference running back Ronnie Rivers back along with four returning starters at wide receiver and tight end, this team has the offensive firepower to keep up with the Bruins. Fresno State is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games in September — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against non-conference opponents. UCLA is 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games in September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against non-conference foes. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with Fresno State Bulldogs (203) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (204). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (186) minus the points versus Virginia Cavaliers (185). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (1-1) bounced-back from their opening week loss to Virginia Tech by crushing Georgia State by a 59-17 score as a 26-point favorite last Saturday. Virginia (2-0) is unbeaten after their 42-14 win against Illinois as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: I was not terribly surprised that North Carolina got upset on the road against the Hokies two weeks ago. Mack Brown’s team may have been a bit overrated after returning 21 of the 22 starters that played in the Orange Bowl against Texas A&M last season. But this is a talented team that Brown has assembled — he is recruiting great in Chapel Hill. Sophomore quarterback Sam Howell rebounded by completing 21 of 29 passes for 352 yards with two touchdown passes as he continues to get more comfortable with his new set receivers after Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome went pro in the offseason. North Carolina absolutely dominated the Panthers by gaining 607 yards and allowing only 271 yards. The Tar Heels averaged 8.54 Yards-Per-Play while holding Georgia State to 3.61 YPP — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a game where they averaged at least 6.75 YPP and held their opponent to 3.75 YPP. Furthermore, North Carolina has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. The Tar Heels returned ten starters and 82% of their production on defense from last season. Furthermore, North Carolina has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored. Virginia has dominated their first two opponents in William & Mary and the Illini. But this is a program that does not fare well after consecutive dominating performances. The Cavaliers gained 545 and 556 yards in their first two games but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last two games. And while Virginia outgained those two opponents by +382 and +221 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after outgaining their last two opponents by at least +125 yards. Now this team plays their first road game of the season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: North Carolina’s dreams of a perfect season may be gone — but they can still earn the right to play in the ACC Championship Game. They can also avenge their 44-41 loss at Virginia last season where they were 8-point road favorites. The Tar Heels were second in the ACC last year by outgaining their opponents by +148 net Yards-Per-Game. They tend to be reliable favorites (despite the upset loss on the road to the Cavaliers last year). 25* CFB ACC Game of the Month with the North Carolina Tar Heels (186) minus the points versus Virginia Cavaliers (185). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Alabama Crimson Tide (143) and the Florida Gators (144). THE SITUATION: Alabama (2-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 48-14 victory against Mercer as a 54-point favorite last Saturday. Florida (2-0) is also undefeated so far this season after their 42-20 win at South Florida as a 29-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Crimson Tide enters this game as a favorite laying two touchdowns — and they are the biggest road favorite against a top-15 team in the Associated Press poll since 2000. Head coach Nick Saban has changed the focus of his program from emphasizing a ferocious defense to showcasing a high-powered offense. With the innovations of using tempo to the offense’s advantage to getting the ball out to speedsters in space, Saban concluded that “if you can’t beat ‘em, then join them”. Alabama has scored at least 31 points in 40 of their last 43 games — including 28 games in a row where they reached the 31-point plateau. Saban has prioritized bringing in the top high school quarterbacks in the country starting with Tua Tagovailoa — and sophomore Bryce Young may be his crown jewel just yet. Young completed 19 of 27 passes for 227 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions last week. In his debut two weeks ago against Miami (FL), Young completed 27 of 38 passes for 344 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Crimson Tide has scored in 14 of their 19 drives so far this season. The Bama offense should continue to crank this week. The Over is 14-6-1 in their last 21 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win at home by at least four touchdowns. The Tide’s defense has taken some hits at linebacker. Senior Christopher Allen is out indefinitely with a foot injury and sophomore Will Anderson is questionable with a knee. Alabama did hold the Tigers to just 216 yards — but they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Over is also 19-6-1 in their last 26 games after not allowing more than 20 points — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not giving up more than 14 points in their last contest. And while Alabama did not allow a point in the first half last week, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after not giving up more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Additionally, the Over is 7-3-1 in the Tide’s last 11 games against teams with a winning record — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total in September. Florida is the only team to stay within one scoring possession of Alabama in the Crimson Tide’s last 16 games. Head coach Dan Mullen knows he will have to be aggressive like he was last season in their 52-46 loss in the SEC Championship Game. While quarterback Kyle Trask, tight end Kyle Pitts, and wide receiver Kadarius Toney have moved on to the NFL, Mullen still has explosive talent at his disposal. Quarterbacks Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson have combined for 456 yards passing and 430 yards rushing while frustrating defenses with the different looks they offer. Running back Malik Davis is averaging 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry — and four different wide receivers have registered a reception of at least 20 yards. The Gators offense has already had 17 plays that accumulated at least 20 yards. Florida gained 666 total yards against the Bulls last week with 363 of those yards on the ground. The Gators have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 350 yards in their last game. Florida has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Additionally, the Gators have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Florida has only given up 34 points this season — but the test is much stiffer this week after cupcake games against the Bulls and FAU. The Gators have played 4 straight Overs as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight Overs against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight meetings Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing in Gainesville. 25* CFB SEC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Alabama Crimson Tide (143) and the Florida Gators (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arkansas State Red Wolves (370) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (369). THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (1-0) opened their season with a 40-21 victory against Central Arkansas as a 14-point favorite last Saturday. Memphis (1-0) comes off a 42-17 win against Nicholls State last Saturday as a 22.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED WOLVES PLUS THE POINTS: So far, so good for the new Butch Jones era. The former head coach at Central Michigan, Cincinnati, and Tennessee has a career 84-54 record before serving as an offensive analyst at Alabama the last two seasons. Jones’ era in Knoxville failed (it is a tough job) — but he is a gifted offensive mind who had success everywhere else before failing in the SEC (but still be given the Nick Saban blessing). Jones brought in a bunch of transfers to inject the program with talent. One of the high-profile transfers was former Florida State quarterback James Blackman who completed 16 of 26 passes for 169 yards last week. Layne Hatcher is still with the program after being in a timeshare with Logan Bonner. Bonner transferred to Utah State to stay with former Arkansas State head coach Blake Anderson who took that head coaching job, but it looks like the time-share will continue. Bonner did his part last week — he completed all 12 of his passes for 150 yards and four touchdown passes. The Red Wolves generated 515 total yards last week. Arkansas State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home. Additionally, the Red Wolves have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in September. Furthermore, Arkansas State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. Memphis dominated an FCS opponent last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Memphis has sixteen starters back from the team that finished 8-3 after beating FAU in the Montgomery Bowl by a 25-10 score. Head coach Ryan Silverfield was counting on Arizona transfer Grant Gunnell as his starting quarterback but a leg injury has him out. True freshman Seth Henigan gets the start after completing 19 of 32 passes for 265 yards as the starter last week. Playing at home against an FCS opponent is one thing, playing on the road against an FBS in your first career collegiate start on the road is quite another. As it is, Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Tigers may have issues in pressuring the quarterback after getting only one sack and only two quarterback hurries against Nicholls State last week. Arkansas State will have revenge on their mind after losing at Memphis last season by a 37-23 score as an 18.5-point underdog. While rotating quarterbacks may not be a good formula to win National Championships, it is disruptive to the opposing defenses which help underdogs cover. Expect a close game. 10* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but take the points for some insurance) Special with the Arkansas State Red Wolves (370) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (369). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (350) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (349). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (1-0) comes off a 16-10 win against Northern Iowa as a 28.5-point favorite last Saturday. Iowa (1-0) smothered Indiana last week by a 34-6 score as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: Money is pouring in on the Hawkeyes after Iowa State did not look particularly impressive last week against an FCS program. The close score did not bother me at all. The Cyclones were slowed down by a -2 net turnover margin. It is not uncommon for the Panthers to play Iowa and Iowa State tough when they get their opportunities to play the two biggest schools in the state. Additionally, head coach Matt Campbell tends to see his teams start slow in September — he saves many of his best schemes for Big 12 play. But after his team reached the Big 12 Championship Game last year, the Cyclones are a legitimate playoff contender — so I expect Campbell to unleash their “A-Game” for this nationally televised showdown. Campbell has 20 starters back from his team that finished 9-3 last season after beating Oregon, 34-17, in the Fiesta Bowl — and they had an 8-1 mark in the Big 12. They outgained Big 12 opponents by +112 net Yards-Per-Game. Iowa State should play very well in this game. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after playing a game where no more than 29 combined points were scored. The Cyclones debunk the stereotype that Big 12 teams do not play defense as they ranked 21st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 340.4 total YPG. They have an underrated defensive coordinator in Jon Heacock — and he is an expert at making adjustments. Iowa State only allowed 16 combined points in the second half of their last five games. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after not allowing more than 17 points in their last game. The offense has all 11 starters back from a unit that scored 32.9 PPG last year — the second-highest mark in school history. The Cyclones scored at least 30 points eight times. Brock Purdy is a senior three-year starter who was the first-team All-Big 12 quarterback last season. Breece Hall is a returning All-American running back who averaged 146 yards from scrimmage per game. Charlie Kolar is a returning All-American tight end. the offensive line returns all five starters from a unit that was one of the 11 semifinalists for the Joe Moore Award for the nation’s best offensive line — and they get back their best offensive lineman in guard Trevor Downing who was injured last year. This team is loaded - and there is NFL talent on both sides of the ball. Campbell has led his team to nine victories against ranked opponents since 2017 — tied for the third-most in the nation. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. Iowa has won seven straight games going back to last season when they rallied from an 0-2 start. Fourteen starters are back — but they lost some critical pieces on their defense. Defensive tackle Daviyon Dixon, defensive end Chauncey Golston, and linebacker Nick Niemann all moved on to the NFL. The Hawkeyes lack elite talent so these losses hurt. Head coach Kirk Ferentz’s program is consistent because of their player development that gets the most out of their recruits — but the Hawkeyes took a big hit when he dismissed their outstanding strength and conditioning coach Chris Doyle for his history of making racist comments. Ferentz looked the other way for years — and there is a reason that Urban Meyer hired him for the same position with Jacksonville before finally relenting to the outside pressure. Iowa develops a great defense because of their physical development — it will be difficult to simply mimic his practices. Junior quarterback Spencer Petras improved as the season went on last year — but he only completed 59% of his passes while averaging 176 passing YPG during their six-game winning streak. Petras completed only 13 of 27 passes for 145 yards last week against the Indiana defense with his accuracy issues remaining a problem. Iowa State has a definitive edge at quarterback. The Hawkeyes will want to run the football with junior All-Big Ten honoree Tyler Goodson — but their offensive line is a question with three new starters including both tackles. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This is a huge game for Iowa State who has lost their last five rivalry games against Iowa. This group did not get the opportunity to avenge an 18-17 loss to Iowa in Iowa City two years ago. Campbell has not coached his team to a victory against the Hawkeyes in four tries. The home team has covered the point spread in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. Iowa State has the talent and motivation edge — they should put up too many points for this Iowa team to keep up. 25* CFB Non-Conference Game of the Year with the Iowa State Cyclones (350) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (349). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (345) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (346). THE SITUATION: Cal (0-1) looks to bounce back from a 22-17 upset loss to Nevada last Saturday as a 3-point favorite. TCU (1-0) comes off a 45-3 thrashing of Duquesne last week as a 42-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal jumped out to a 13-point lead before going away from their rushing attack that was finding success. Red Zone problems played a role as well — but coaches often find they see the biggest jump in execution from the first to the second game of the season. The Golden Bears are not always reliable favorites — but they have consistently overachieved under head coach Justin Wilcox when getting the points. Cal has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games as an underdog with twelve upset wins. They have pulled off seven upsets over that span when getting more than a touchdown. Furthermore, the Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games as a dog since 2019 with six outright wins. Wilcox has seventeen starters back from the team that finished a disappointing 1-3. They have a third-year starting quarterback in Chase Garbers. Cal has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games as an underdog. TCU took care of business against their FCS opponent last week — but they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Horned Frogs have eighteen starters back from their 6-4 campaign last year. But TCU has not been a reliable favorite when played at Amon G. Carter Stadium. The Horned Frogs are just 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Cal has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record on their home field — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games when getting 10.5 to 14 points. 10* CFB Cal-TCU ESPNU Special with the California Golden Bears (345) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (346). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (225) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (226). THE SITUATION: Louisville (0-0) returns thirteen starters from their team that finished 4-7 last season. Mississippi (0-0) has seventeen starters back from the team that completed their 5-5 campaign with a 26-20 victory over Indiana in the Outback Bowl. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisville overachieved in their first season under head coach Scott Satterfield — but they underachieved last year by settling with a 4-7 record. The Cardinals outgained their opponents in yardage in nine of their eleven games — but turnovers often neutralized that edge. Louisville had their offensive possessions end in a turnover 18.2% of the time, the sixth-worst mark in the FBS. With 24 turnovers, the Cardinals had a -12 net turnover margin that overwhelmed their +75 net YPG clip. Louisville appears to be moving in the right direction on the field under Satterfield. They got in seven of their fourteen spring practices last year before COVID shut things down — but a full offseason should help the coaching staff address this problem. Junior quarterback Malik Cunningham was the main culprit — he threw 12 interceptions and lost another three fumbles. A year of maturity should help. He will be playing behind the best Cardinals’ offensive line in years with four starters back and another four with starting experience including a transfer from Virginia Tech. The defense has improved under Satterfield as well — Louisville ranked 39th in the nation by holding their opponents to 369.1 total YPG. Satterfield’s teams have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. His teams have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral field going back to his time at Appalachian State. Mississippi has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the first month of the season — and Lane Kiffin’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of his team’s last 16 games played in the first two weeks of the season. Kiffin had an immediate impact on the offense last season in his first year with the program — but that success may have raised expectations too high for bettors this season. It is just not likely that this team will average 555.5 total YPG again — third-best in the FBS. I don’t like the circumstances regarding Kiffin dismissing his offensive line coach days after spring practice ended. And Kiffin will not be on the sidelines tonight after testing positive for COVID. I don’t think his absence hurts the offense much — but he is a great play-caller, so there will be key moments in the game when the team needs a big play where they will not have insight. The Rebels’ defense is the real concern after they allowed 38.3 PPG and 519.0 total YPG last year — ranking 117th and 126th in the FBS. The unit lacks the size and grit in their front seven after years of a recruiting decline at the position when the program imploded under head coach Hugh Freeze. Senior linebacker Jacquez Jones’ late spring decision to transfer to Kentucky does not help the situation. Kiffin’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in expected high-scoring shootouts where the Total was set at 70 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Louisville has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against non-conference opponents — and Kiffin’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games against non-conference opponents. 10* CFB Louisville-Mississippi ESPN Special with the Louisville Cardinals (225) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (226). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (223) and the Florida State Seminoles (224). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (0-0) returns eight starters from the team that finished 10-2 after losing to Alabama by a 31-14 score in the College Football Playoff Semifinals. Florida State (0-0) has fourteen starters back from the group that finished 3-6 last season.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Brian Kelly has settled into a reliable formula to get the most out of his talent in South Bend. Kelly has overseen some elite defenses coached by the best young defensive minds in college football while operating a ball-control run-first offense that limits mistakes and burns time off the clock. With only three starters back on offense and starting over with the offensive line with just one starter back, Kelly is likely to be happy to grind out games early in the season — especially when he thinks he has an edge in talent. If there was any doubt about this approach, it should have been rescinded when he brought in senior graduate transfer Jack Coan. The former Wisconsin quarterback was the epitome of the game-manager when playing for the Badgers. He completed nearly 70% of his passes in 2019, the year he led Wisconsin to ten wins and the Rose Bowl. But he is not about to air out for the Irish — and, even if Kelly had a change of personality, Notre Dame does not have the established talent at wide receiver to embrace that strategy in the opening game of the season. Notre Dame has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total in the first two games of the season. Kelly lost his star defensive coordinator, Clark Lea, who took the head coaching job at Vanderbilt. But Kelly might have poached the best defensive coordinator in the country at a Group of Five program when inked Cincinnati’s Marcus Freeman to take over the Notre Dame defense. Freeman has an All-American he can rely on his secondary in junior free safety Kyle Hamilton. The defensive front for the Irish should be stout again with two returning starters and two blue-chippers being promoted to a unit that was sixth in the FBS last year by generating a tackle-for-loss at a 12.1% rate last season. Notre Dame was 14th in the nation by allowing 19.7 PPG. With six starters back and young talent ready to take on new roles, it will be difficult for this Seminoles team to top that number. The Irish offense is not likely to match their 33.4 PPG scoring average from last year — especially when playing on the road. Notre Dame has played a decisive 37 of their last 57 games Under the Total against ACC opponents — including four of their last five games from last season in their dalliance with the conference as a one-time member given the pandemic. Florida State should be much better on defense after a full set of practices in the spring and fall under head coach Mike Norvell in his second year with the program. Norvell and defensive coordinator Adam Fuller only had three spring practices with their new team last year. Fuller did a fine job of improving the defense at Memphis when Norvell hired him for that job the prior season. The Seminoles allowed 36.0 Points-Per-Game which was the most in school history. Seven starters are back — and Norvell brought in five impact transfers including Georgia defensive end Jermaine Johnson and South Carolina nickel back Jammie Robinson. Florida State was also hit hard by COVID throughout the season before injuries, transfers, and opt-outs compounded the problem. Some teams just need a mulligan from last year — and Norvell’s Seminoles is likely one of them. His teams have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the opening two weeks of the season. He is not naming his starting quarterback until tonight — but he is likely to use both McKenzie Milton and Jordan Travis. Milton is the former Central Florida quarterback who suffered a devastating knee injury. Travis was one of the four quarterbacks Norvell used last season. Both have upside — but this offense will be a work-in-progress still.

FINAL TAKE: The Seminoles have played 4 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total when an underdog getting up to seven points. Expect a lower-scoring game between these two teams. 10* CFB Notre Dame-Florida State ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (223) and the Florida State Seminoles (224). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (208) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (207). THE SITUATION: Clemson (0-0) returns 14 starters from the team that finished 10-2 after a 49-28 loss to Ohio State in the College Football Playoff Semifinals. Georgia (0-0) has 13 starters back from their 8-2 campaign last year which ended with them beating Cincinnati by a 24-21 score in the Peach Bowl. This game will be played on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia recruits like a National Championship team. In terms of core talent, the Bulldogs rosters compare with Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State in the Kirby Smart era. Yet this program cannot yet get over the hump — and that nagging insecurity will not help them in this opening heavyweight fight. Smart realized that he needed to evolve his offense — so he brought in offensive coordinator Todd Monken who was able to match his schemes with quarterback J.T. Daniels when the former USC transfer took over under center. What took so long to make that change from Stetson Bennett? The losses to Florida and Alabama? Daniels is a former 5-star recruit — but he was losing favor with the Trojans even before his knee injury that kept him out a year. He is lacking weapons for this showdown. His favorite target last year was George Pickens who caught 23 balls for 373 yards after Daniels assumed the starting QB duties. Pickens suffered a torn ACL in the spring. The Bulldogs are loaded with talent at wide receiver — but the group is young and the cohesion with Daniels is not as developed. Georgia has a great tight ends room with sophomore Darnell Washington and LSU transfer Arik Gilbert — but both players are out for this game. Ouch. The defense has elite talent — and they think they can simply reload once again despite losing six players to the NFL. But while the total defense of allowing 321.0 total YPG ranked 12th in the FBS, the more sophisticated Expected Points Allowed per Play metric drops them to 27th in the nation. A hidden flaw that may speak to defensive coordinator Dan Lanning’s schemes relates to the Red Zone performance. Georgia allowed 14 touchdowns and seven field goals in the 22 Red Zone trips their opponents made — that 95.5% scoring rate was 124th in the nation. The Bulldogs lost their top four cornerbacks, with two going to the NFL and one transferring. In theory, there is great freshman talent — and Smart is aggressive in the transfer market by bringing in former Clemson cornerback Darion Kendrick and West Virginia nickel back Tykee Smith. Are any of these players lockdown corners? The Bulldogs would have been better served with this showdown occurring later in the season. I have more faith in Clemson’s reload — six straight appearances in the playoffs will do that (with two National Championships). Sophomore quarterback D.J. Uiagalelelei is proven with two starts last season against Boston College and Notre Dame where he completed 78 of 117 passes for 914 yards and five touchdowns without an interception. He threw for 438 yards on the road at night in South Bend against a good Fighting Irish defense. And both those games were tight (including a double-overtime loss to the Irish) — so he has experience playing under pressure in tight games. Clemson missed wide receiver Justyn Ross who missed last season with an injury — but he appears ready to return to the field tonight to challenge the Bulldogs’ secondary. He is a likely future first-round pick in the NFL draft. The Tigers defense has something to prove after getting burned for 639 yards by the Buckeyes — but led by perhaps the best defensive front in the nation, this may be their most talented defense since their 2018 National Championship team.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games played on a neutral field when the Total is in the 49.5 to 56 range. Now they play at a familiar field for Clemson where they have won the ACC Championship Game the last four seasons. The Tigers have covered the point spread in all 6 games under Dabo Swinney on a neutral field with the Total in that 49.5 to 56 range. And Clemson has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 postseason games consisting of conference championship games, playoff games, and bowl games — and while this contest does not fit that template, it speaks to how Swinney gets his team prepared for big games. 20* CFB Georgia-Clemson ABC-TV Special with the Clemson Tigers (208) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (207). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Penn State Nittany Lions (165) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (166). THE SITUATION: Penn State (0-0) returns 16 starters from the team that finished 4-5 last season. Wisconsin (0-0) has 17 starters back from their team that finished 4-3 after a 42-28 win against Wake Forest in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NITTANY LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: Penn State started 0-5 last season in a snake-bitten start of bad luck involving injuries, turnovers, and COVID complications. When their star linebacker Micah Parsons opted-out of the season, the team was left without their best player. Indiana upset them at home in overtime in the opening game of the season as a 6-point dog despite being outgained by +277 net yards. Penn State had Ohio State next who they were competitive against in a 38-25 loss as a 10-point dog. The season was lost after two games — and they were flat in a 35-19 upset loss to Maryland where they were laying 27 points. They then got upset at Nebraska by a 30-23 score as a 3-point favorite despite outgaining the Cornhuskers by 203 yards. Wounded with an 0-4 record, they then hosted Iowa where they lost by a 41-21 score. But give James Franklin credit for rallying this team after this disastrous 0-5 start. They upset Michigan on the road in a battle of bruised blue bloods which began their four-game winning streak to end the season. There are definitely problems — and the lack of spring practice hampered Franklin’s hiring of Minnesota offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarocca. A lack of explosiveness on offense was one of the reasons that Franklin did not retain Ciarocca (now the head coach of West Virginia). Franklin tapped Texas offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich as his new OC. Turnovers played a big role as the Nittany Lions lost eight of their ten fumbles on offense en route to 17 turnovers. Junior quarterback Sean Clifford probably tried to do too much early as well — but after throwing eight interceptions in his first five games, he had only one interception in his last four games with five touchdown passes. The Penn State defense also held their last five opponents to just 17.3 PPG. Overall, the Nittany Lions may have allowed 27.7 PPG (with turnovers hurting the cause) — but they ranked 17th in the nation by giving up just 328.8 total YPG. They have one of the most underrated defensive coordinators in the business in Brent Pry. Nine starters return on offense including a third-year starter in Clifford. This is a team that outgained their opponents by +102 net YPG. Penn State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in September. Wisconsin was also hit hard by COVID — so perhaps that explains why they scored in single-digits in three straight games midway through the year. But don’t read too much into their 42-28 closing win against Wake Forest in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl since they got outgained by a 577 to 266 yardage margin. Sophomore quarterback Graham Mertz returned from his positive COVID test (and not getting to play Illinois again) by completing only 56.9% of his passes with four touchdown passes and five interceptions in his last six games. Perhaps it was just a nagging shoulder injury for the highly touted phenom? The running backs averaged only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry amidst speculation that the typical stout Badgers’ offensive line has taken a step back in talent. Wisconsin started fast amidst a favorable schedule in 2019 — but they gave up 26 PPG in their final eight games before they could grab on COVID excuses last year. The data says they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against Big Ten opponents — and Penn State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against conference opponents. While both these teams have much to prove in this game. the Nittany Lions still recruit better than the Badgers. Expect a close game where getting the points offers much value. 20* CFB Penn State-Wisconsin Fox-TV Special with the Penn State Nittany Lions (165) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (166). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Northwestern Wildcats (154) minus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (153). THE SITUATION: Northwestern (0-0) returns eight starters from the team that finished 7-2 last season with a 35-19 win over Auburn in the Citrus Bowl. Michigan State (0-0) has 16 starters back from their team that finished 2-5.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Once again, bettors appear to be undervaluing the program that head coach Pat Fitzgerald has built in Evanston. In his sixteenth year with the program, Fitzgerald led a Wildcats team to finish in the top 25 for the fourth time since 2015 last year after playing for the Big Ten Championship where they lost to Ohio State by a 22-10 score. Now this program is laying only a field goal to a rebuilding Michigan State team? Fitzgerald can make the argument that he has assembled a coaching staff that gets the most out of their talent in the conference (and the nation?). And this new era of the transfer portal helps a program like Northwestern that cannot hang with the blue bloods in attracting blue-chippers — but now becomes attractive for the talent who needs the spotlight with a starting assignment with a coaching staff that just sent saw two players drafted in the first round in the NFL draft. The Wildcats’ defense has always been fundamentally sound under Fitzgerald — and they were 5th in the nation last year by allowing only 15.9 PPG. This year’s defense is as athletic as any of the units in the Fitzgerald tenure — and the defensive line may be the best yet in his sixteen years. They bring back defensive end Samdup Miller who opted out last year. Safety Brandon Joseph is an All-American — and they have a breakout star in cornerback Cameron Mitchell. A Northwestern program may have been in a better position to navigate COVID-ball last year — but a full offseason can only help a program that thrives when they can coach up their players. Fitzgerald brought in former South Carolina Ryan Hilinski to compete for the starting QB job. The fact that fifth-year senior Hunter Johnson has been named the starting QB suggests to me that the veteran has earned the spot. Johnson is a former five-star recruit that transferred to the program from Clemson — and while he has yet to achieve his vast potential, he has now been under Fitzgerald’s mentorship for three years (including a pandemic). This is a team that has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they are a dominant 33-16-3 ATS in their last 52 games in conference play under Fitzgerald. I am optimistic about what Michigan State can do under second-year head coach Mel Tucker. I like the direction — but I think the betting market is mistaking long-term optimism with short-term rationality. Sparty has endured a decline in talent for years under the bloat of Mike Dantonio for years — especially on the offensive line. The recruiting war arms race in the Big Ten East with Michigan and Penn State investing furiously to try to catch up to Ohio State left Sparty far behind while Dantonio preached an outdated model while fueling all his attentions on his in-state rival. The paradigm where Michigan State played Alabama in the BCS college football playoff in 2016 has long since been transformed. It will take longer than a year for Tucker to rebuild this program. He is trying to ride transfer roulette wheel for this year — and he may have improved the program he inherited. More than 20 players left the program in the offseason but he brought in more than 20. Whoo-hoo! I mean, guys aren’t leaving starting jobs at elite programs. The Michigan State defense has declined — they allowed 35.1 PPG last year (100th FBS and the worst mark in program history) and lost the best player on all three levels. I think second-year defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton is great who will benefit from a full year of teaching — but he can only do so much. The talent on offense may not yet fit the scheme of second year offensive coordinator Jay Johnson who brought 21st century principles with him when he came over with Tucker from Colorado. The rushing attack has ranked 122nd, 113th, and 114th in the nation in the last three seasons. Tucker brought in Temple QB Anthony Russo as a graduate transfer — but he agrees with all of us in wondering if that was an upgrade over sophomore Payton Thorne who made one start last year. Tucker has yet to name a starter as of my last deep dive — but it doesn’t matter, let him start the turnover machine from Temple. Or not. There is simply a talent deficit still between these two teams. Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road in the opening two weeks of the season. Additionally, the Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games in Big Ten play.

FINAL TAKE: The icing on the cake is that Northwestern will be motivated to avenge a 29-20 upset loss in East Lansing against Sparty as a 13.5-point favorite. The Wildcats fell behind by a 17-0 score before scoring 20 unanswered points — but turnovers in the fourth quarter led to their 9-point loss. The grind of the Big Ten — where emotions at home can play a big role. Northwestern has that emotional edge this time around — something that Fitzgerald has been pounding into his team since August practices started. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Northwestern Wildcats (154) minus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (153). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (137) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (138). THE SITUATION: Boise State (0-0) returns 17 starters from the team that finished 5-2 after a 34-20 loss to San Jose State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Central Florida (0-0) has 17 starters back from their team that ended the season with a 6-4 record after a 49-23 loss to BYU in the Boca Raton Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Boise State is under new management after Bryan Harsin took the head coaching job at Boise State. The Broncos hired a former player and defensive coordinator in Andy Avalos to rework their defense that allowed 27.1 PPG last season. Those were the most points that Boise State surrendered since 1998. Avalos was previously the defensive coordinator at Oregon. He should improve a defense that allowed at least 30 points in four of their seven games last year. It was a lost season for the Broncos that started on the wrong foot when COVID led to them canceling their entire spring practice schedule. The team was hit hard by COVID and injuries during the regular season with both their highly-touted quarterbacks, Hank Bachmeier and Jack Sears, missing time. Sears, a former USC transfer, only played one game. Bachmeier started four games last season including the end of the season despite not being 100%. He has been tabbed the starter for this game. He displayed a big upside in his freshman season as one of the biggest recruits in the history of the program by averaging 8.6 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. He has two returning starters at wide receiver in seniors Khalil Shakir and C.T. Thomas who have combined for 248 receptions and 24 touchdown catches in their career. The Boise State offense has a new offensive coordinator in Tim Plough who brings his Air Raid attack to Boise from UC-Davis. In his time as the Aggies' offensive coordinator, they averaged just 23 seconds between plays — so except a very fast pace. The Broncos should carve up a suspect Knights pass defense that was 110th in the nation last year by allowing 8.5 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. Central Florida’s best defensive back last season was free safety Richie Grant who was drafted by the Atlanta Falcons. The Knights will miss the three-time All-Conference player. Boise State opted out from playing in a bowl game — so this nationally televised game is important for them to re-establish themselves on the national stage. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the first half of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 range. Central Florida also has a new coach in Gus Malzahn — the guy that Boise State’s previous coach is replacing at Auburn. He replaces Josh Heupel who took the Tennessee head coaching job. While the Knights bring back 17 starters, they lost talent on both sides of the ball to the NFL — and this is not a program that simply reloads. UCF lost their top two running backs in Greg McRae and Otis Anderson and their leading receiver in Marlon Williams who had five 100-yards receiving games last year. Expectations are high for the Knights with junior Dillon Gabriel under center — but he is adjusted to the new Malzahn system on offense. It is the Knights’ defense that will likely be their downfall in this game. They allowed their opponents to average +86 YPG above their season average last year — 123rd in the nation. They allowed at least 30 points six times. UCF benefited from a +12 net turnover margin last year that made up for their defense that allowed 491.8 total YPG (123rd in the FBS). The Knights cannot rely on having the fifth-best net turnover margin once again this season. This shapes up to be a shootout — but that usually does not bode well for this football team. Central Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games with the Total set at 63 or higher — and they failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home with the Total at 63 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Boise State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games when an underdog getting up to 7 points. Central Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home when favored. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Month with the Boise State Broncos (137) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (138). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Golden Gophers (146) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (145). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (0-0) returns 20 starters from a team that finished 3-4 last season. Ohio State (0-0) has 11 starters back from their group that lost to Alabama in the National Championship Game by a 52-24 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN GOPHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Expectations have been raised for this program under head coach P.J. Fleck after their 11-2 campaign in 2019 that concluded a victory against Auburn in the Outback Bowl. The team was likely going to take a step back last year given the loss of five of their top six tacklers on defense and offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca to Penn State. But this program was given no favors when the pandemic hit. The team kept fighting and ended the season playing good football — they took Wisconsin to overtime in their last game before losing by a 20-17 score. Now with a full offseason again and more time to learn second-year offensive coordinator Mike Sanford’s schemes, Minnesota should be very confident tonight as they begin the fifth season under Fleck. His teams at Minnesota and Western Michigan have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games in September. He has a senior quarterback in Tanner Morgan who is a four-year starter. They have the reigning Big Ten Running Back of the Year in Mohamad Ibrahim. They have three returning starters at wide receiver in a unit blessed with speed — and senior Chris Autman-Bell is a game-time decision from the latest reports after he suffered a leg injury in camp last month. The Gophers have four starters back on an offensive line that is big, deep, and experienced — and they get right tackle Daniel Faalele and his 6’9, 400-lb frame after he opted out last season. The defense played better in the second half of the season — they held their last five opponents to just 23.4 PPG. Ten starters return — and they brought in one of the most impactful grad transfers in defensive tackle Nyles Pinckney who was the captain of the Clemson defense. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Big Ten opponents. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog. Ohio State usually does not schedule as strong as an opponent as this in their opening game. They especially do not schedule road games in conference play as their opening game. While the Buckeyes are loaded with talent, they have ten new starters including redshirt freshman C.J. Stroud. Remember, Ohio State did not play in front of hostile crowds against Big Ten foes last year given conference restrictions on attendance. They lost ten players who were drafted into the NFL. With a showdown with Oregon next week, the Buckeyes just need to survive this game. Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The weather influenced my decision to sign off on this play today — there is a 50% chance for rain in Minneapolis tonight at Huntington Bank Stadium. Rain creates chaos — and I don’t like road favorites amidst chaos playing at night in a hostile environment. I especially do not like chaos with a freshman quarterback making his first career start under expectations that he is supposed to lead his team to a national championship. As it is, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 trips to Minneapolis to play the Golden Gophers. 10* CFB Ohio State-Minnesota Fox-TV Special with the Minnesota Golden Gophers (146) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (301) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (302). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (0-0) returns 18 starters from the team that finished 5-4 last year after a 28-14 win against Houston in the New Mexico Bowl. UCLA (0-0) comes off a 3-4 campaign in the third year under head coach Chip Kelly.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: There seems to be more excitement about what the Bruins may finally accomplish in the fourth year under Kelly nationally than there is in Los Angeles where the Rose Bowl will not offer a strong home-field edge. The biggest problem with this UCLA team starts with Kelly’s stubbornness to continue to employ his buddy Jerry Azzinaro as his defensive coordinator. Entering last season, Azzinaro had overseen six straight college defenses that ranked 113th, 102nd, 100th, 89th, 105th, and 110th in total defense. Some might say that the Azzinaro-way finally started to demonstrate itself last year when the Bruins “improved to 69th in the nation by holding their opponents to 409.9 total YPG. Unfortunately, that number may have more to do with playing opponents slow to get up to speed on offense in a pandemic. UCLA allows 482 YPG in their final three games against Arizona State, USC, and Stanford — not exactly an endorsement of coaching improvements out of one’s players. The UCLA defense also lost their best player in defensive end Osa Odighizuwa who got drafted by Dallas. Kelly’s recruiting classes have catered amidst losing seasons — and he has lost talent from the loosened transfer rules. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the returning starter at quarterback — but he has failed to meet the expectations of operating the Chip Kelly dual-threat offense. Pro Football Focus graded four of his five starts last year below 57.0 (which is bad). Injuries have held him back — but when he has been the starter in his career, the Bruins’ pass attack ranks second-to-last in the Pac-12 on efficiency. Kelly’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in the opening two weeks of the season. UCLA has not covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 non-conference games with Kelly as their head coach. And in Kelly’s last 22 home games as a head coach with his team playing at home with the Total set at 63 or higher, his teams have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of those games. Hawai’i deployed a new up-tempo attack against Houston in their bowl game to success that will carry over into this season. Say what you want about head coach Todd Graham after his tenure at Arizona State — but the dude can coach up football teams as he owns a 100-65 overall record with 11 bowl appearances in his 12 seasons coaching at Rice, Tulsa, and Pittsburgh before the Sun Devils and Rainbow Warriors. Graham has tightened the ship by making things a family affair with him placing his eldest son, Bo, as offensive coordinator while he takes over the defensive coordinating duties. Graham brought in six Division-I transfers to a defense that returns 11 starters. The defense will be better. The offense brings back fourth-year QB Chevan Cordeiro who threw for over 2000 yards and ran for more than 480 yards in nine games. Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games in the first two weeks of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played in August. The Rainbow Warriors have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in non-conference play — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set at 63 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Graham’s teams have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. UCLA has a big game with LSU on deck, which may compel Kelly to call off the dogs if they are winning easily — so a back door cover is alive in this one. 10* CFB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (301) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Nebraska Cornhuskers (299) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (300). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (0-0) returns 17 starters from the team that settled for a 3-5 record in a COVID-shortened season last year. Illinois (0-0) begins the Bret Bielema head coaching era after Lovie Smith was sacked before the final game of the 2020 season where they finished 2-6.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CORNHUSKERS MINUS THE POINTS: If fourth-year head coach Scott Frost was not on the hot seat after posting a 12-20 record in his first three seasons at his alma mater in Lincoln, the NCAA violations issued against the football program under his watch certainly raised the stakes this season for Frost with another album as athletic director in Trev Alberts who did not hire him. After four straight losing seasons, Frost must deliver — and the schedule gets tougher in the second half of the season with dates Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Iowa. This is a must-win situation for the Cornhuskers. Frost has problems — players are transferring and his recruitment has waned. But 17 starters return from a group that outgained their opponents last season by +5 net Yards-Per-Game. Nebraska was just 1-4 in close games decided by one possession. Turning the ball over in 18.95% of their possessions on offense was a killer. Yet there is stability on offense under senior quarterback Adrian Martinez. While the dual-threat QB is not likely to meet the expectations surrounding his early hype, he is a veteran who completed 71.5% of his passes last season while running for another 521 yards with his 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry average. With a wide receiving corps that is the most talented in the Frost era, this should be a better offensive team. With USC transfer Markese Stepp and a handful of talented freshmen at running back, someone should step up. The defense has 90% of their production return led by five “super seniors” playing in their sixth season. The Cornhuskers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Scott Frost’s teams at Nebraska and Central Florida have covered the point spread in 5 of their 8 road games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Lovie Smith did not leave the cupboard bare for Bielema at Illinois — in fact, I think Smith was moving this program in the right direction before COVID put a monkey wrench in many coaches' plans last season (especially the ones who are effective teachers who rely on practices). In comes Bielema who bolted from his success at Wisconsin for the money in the SEC where he failed to elevate the Arkansas program. He returns to Big Ten country where he is moving from a spread offense to probably more of a power running game. The defense moves from a 4-3 to a 3-4 — and these system changes on both sides of the ball can see transition problems in these early games. As it is, Bielema’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games in the opening two weeks of the season. His quarterback is sixth-year senior Brandon Peters who transferred from Michigan a few years ago when the writing was on the wall that he would not get the starting job after a bad bowl game sealed his fate. The inconsistent QB has averaged only 144.6 passing YPG with the Illini. He led an offense last year that ranked 119th in the FBS in Expected Points Added per Pass Attempt — and the returning wide receiving corps lacks a clear number one option. The Illini defense has finished 12th or worse in total yardage in four of the last five seasons under a former NFL head coach whose defensive acumen propelled the Chicago Bears to reach the Super Bowl with a defense that carried Rex Grossman at QB. Defensive coordinator Ryan Walters, previously the coordinator of the Missouri defense the last six seasons, is not an upgrade. Bielema is in a rebuild — so he has time. His teams have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 home games when an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home where they do not retain a great home edge — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 37 home games as a dog getting up to 7 points. The Illini have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in August.

FINAL TAKE: If the stakes were not high enough for Nebraska, they will have revenge on their mind after getting upset by Illinois last year at home by a 41-23 score as a 16-point underdog on November 21st. Good bulletin board material for Frost in a game Bielema had no connection with. 25* CFB Television Game of the Month is with the Nebraska Cornhuskers (299) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (300). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (500) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (499) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Alabama (12-0) defeated Notre Dame by a 31-14 score on New Year’s Day in the Rose Bowl College Football Semifinals as an 18.5-point favorite. Ohio State (7-0) upset Clemson as a 7-point favorite later that night in the Sugar Bowl to earn the right to play for the National Championship. This game will be played on a neutral field at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: We had the Buckeyes in their revenge opportunity defeat a Tigers team that beat them in last year’s Semifinals by a 29-23 score. I loved Ohio State in that situation as an underdog — but I hate this spot for them now. Head coach Ryan Day and his team just triumphed against their proverbial white whale — but the job is not done. I worry about a big emotional letdown for this team. As it is, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 20 points. The continued COVID situation for Ohio State adds a very troubling complication for this team. Remember, it was the surprise announcement of a slew of Buckeyes’ players dealing with COVID that contributed to their sluggish effort in the Big Ten Championship Game against Northwestern. Fields struggled without his top weapons in that game — and he may be slowed in this game with the ribs injury he suffered against Clemson. If he is not 100%, the Buckeyes are in trouble. I was unwilling to make a call on the Total for this game without knowing if there is a position group that will not be available to play in this game — if an offensive position group is out, then that helps the Under; if a defensive position group is out, then it helps the Over. Either way, if Ohio State goes into this game undermanned, it could be devastating. Even if everyone takes the field on Monday, the practice and preparation for this team have been less than ideal. Alabama will be primed and ready for this game. Head coach Nick Saban’s team comes into this contest having not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last game. Additionally, the Tide have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 67 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in a dominant 23 of their last 28 games after winning but not covering the point spread in their last two games. This Alabama team is simply overwhelming on offense — they are scoring 48.2 PPG while averaging 535.6 total YPG. And the Buckeyes are vulnerable in their passing game — especially on the edges with what is still a young defensive backfield with only seven games under their belts this season. Ohio State is 116th in the nation by allowing 281.1 passing YPG — and the QB Mac Jones leads a quick-strike attack that is fifth in the nation by averaging 349.3 passing YPG. The rich might get richer as well with the possibility that wide receiver Jaylen Waddle may be able to return to action in this game after being injured for months. Alabama has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on a neutral field favored by 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the SEC. Alabama has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against Big Ten foes. 25* CFB National Championship *A-List* Special with the Alabama Crimson Tide (500) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (499). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (499) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (500) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (7-0) upset Clemson as a 7-point favorite later that night in the Sugar Bowl to earn the right to play for the National Championship. Alabama (12-0) defeated Notre Dame by a 31-14 score on New Year’s Day in the Rose Bowl College Football Semifinals as an 18.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Crimson Tide flexed their muscles on defense against the Fighting Irish offense by limiting them to 375 yards and just the two scores. Alabama has not only then played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not giving up more than 14 points in their last contest. And while that game flew Under the 65.5 point Total, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing an Under. The Crimson Tide has been vulnerable against explosive offenses — Florida generated 462 yards against the Bama defense (including 408 in the air) while Ole Miss put up 268 rushing yards and another 379 passing yards for 647 total yards of offense against a Nick Saban-defense. There is no question that Ryan Day and his offensive coaching staff have dissected the Lane Kiffin game plan he installed for his Rebels’ offense in that game. Alabama has won the turnover battle in three straight games — and they have played 28 of their last 40 games on the road Over the Total after enjoying a +1 or better turnover battle in two straight contests. This Alabama team is simply overwhelming on offense — they are scoring 48.2 PPG while averaging 535.6 total YPG. And the Buckeyes are vulnerable in their passing game — especially on the edges with what is still a young defensive backfield with only seven games under their belts this season. Ohio State is 116th in the nation by allowing 281.1 passing YPG — and the QB Mac Jones leads a quick-strike attack that is fifth in the nation by averaging 349.3 passing YPG. The rich might get richer as well with the possibility that wide receiver Jaylen Waddle may be able to return to action in this game after being injured for months. The Over is 22-9-2 in the Crimson Tide’s last 33 games played on a neutral field — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total on a neutral field as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. Ohio State has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset win by at least two touchdowns. And while they generated 639 yards against the Clemson defense — the Over is then 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Buckeyes have gained at least 491 yards in all seven of their games this season — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 475 yards in two straight games. Additionally, Ohio State has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total with the total set at 63 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Yes, this is a biggggg number in the mid-70s. But Ohio State has scored at least 38 points in six of their seven games with their COVID-impacted Big Ten Championship Game against a Northwestern team slowing the game down being the exception. Notre Dame deployed a similar strategy in “holding” Alabama to their lowest scoring total of the season — but the Tide has scored at least 41 points in their other ten games. If both teams hit those floors, the Over comes in. Both of these teams are going to try to “out-offense” the other in what should be a very competitive contest. Tellingly, Saban’s teams have played 13 of their last 19 January Bowl games Over the Total — and this includes all 4 National Championship Games. 25* College Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (499) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (500). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (498) minus the points versus North Carolina Tar Heels (497) in the Orange Bowl. THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (8-1) enters the postseason coming off a 34-13 win at Tennessee as a 13.5-point favorite on December 19th. North Carolina (8-3) comes off a 62-26 upset win at Miami (FL) as a 3-point underdog on December 12th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Texas A&M has a chip on their shoulder for this game after not getting what they considered to be the “second” automatic bid into the College Football Playoff semifinals after getting bypassed by Notre Dame and an Ohio State team that “only” played six games (after seeing their non-conference schedule consisting of Bowling Green and Buffalo cut due to COVID). Will the Aggies come into this game with something to prove — or will they be complacent? The history of Jimbo Fisher teams is to take bowl games seriously. Fisher’s teams have won seven of their nine bowl games while covering the point spread in 6 of these 9 bowl games. And Fisher is regime building in College Station with a 25-10 record in his first three seasons there including two bowl wins after they crushed NC State in the Gator Bowl last year by a 55-13 score. This is a prestigious New Year’s Six bowl game in the cushy Saturday night prime-time slot with plenty of eyeballs from recruits to playoff committee members to AP voters that will make their preseason rankings which sets the table to rig the game for Power Five conference teams for playoff considerations — and the rich Texas A&M alumni are always watching with interest. So, yeah, I think Fisher has had his whip out for his team in practice to prepare for this game. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least 20 points. And while they gained 497 yards against the Volunteers, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game. Senior Kellen Mond completed 26 of 32 passes for 281 yards in the win — and Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Aggies also have an outstanding defense that ranks 11th in the nation by allowing 316.6 YPG. North Carolina may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset victory on the road by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after pulling off an upset win on the road by at least three touchdowns. Additionally, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win over an ACC opponent. UNC exploded for 778 yards against the Hurricanes while outgaining them by +464 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. Head coach Mack Brown is dealing with several opt-outs for this game with three of his top skill players on offense in wide receiver Dyami Brown and running backs Michael Carter and Javonte Williams and his best defensive player in linebacker Chazz Surratt bypassing this game. Brown has young but untested talent filling their shoes. The Tar Heels rushed for a whopping 554 yards against Miami — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last game. Now they face a stout Aggies run defense that holds opposing rushers to just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry — while ranking second in the nation by allowing only 92.2 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. They also have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams outside the SEC. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Texas A&M Aggies (498) minus the points versus North Carolina Tar Heels (497). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (496) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (495) in the Fiesta Bowl. THE SITUATION: Iowa State (8-3) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in the Big 12 Championship Game with their 27-21 loss to Oklahoma as a 5-point underdog on December 18th. Oregon (4-2) ended their two-game losing streak in the Pac-12 Championship Game with their 31-24 upset win against USC on December 18th as a 3-point underdog. This game will be played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa State should bounce-back with a strong effort for head coach Matt Campbell. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 6 points or less. The Cyclones have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after winning at least three of their last four games. Quarterback Brock Purdy completed 27 of 40 passes for 322 yards against a quality Oklahoma defense but his three interceptions did the Cyclones in — including one in the waning moments of the game when Iowa State was driving for the potential winning score. Iowa State outgained Oklahoma by +43 net yards in the Sooners’ opportunity to avenge their earlier loss to them. The Cyclones have held their last two opponents to just 120 and 54 rushing yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games are not allowing their last two opponents to rush for at least 125 yards. Oregon was did not earn the right to play in the Pac-12 Championship Game but took full advantage of their opportunity after Washington had to pull out of that game because of COVID. But the Ducks needed a +2 net turnover margin in that game overcome the Trojans outgaining them by 115 net yards. Oregon was outgained by -27.3 net YPG in their last three games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a point spread win. The Ducks did surrender 320 passing yards to USC which is not an encouraging sign now when facing the gunslinger Purdy. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after allowing at least 280 yards in their last game. QB Tyler Shough struggled in the game as well as he completed only 8 of 15 passes for 91 yards.

FINAL TAKE: The Ducks are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games against non-conference opponents — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games played on a neutral field with a total set at 56.5 to 63. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Iowa State Cyclones (496) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (495). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (493) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (494) in the Outback Bowl. THE SITUATION: Mississippi (4-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 19th with their 53-48 upset loss at LSU as a 1-point favorite. Indiana (6-1) has won their last two games with their 14-6 upset victory at Wisconsin on December 5th as a 12-point underdog on December 5th. This game will be played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: Ole Miss surrendered 593 yards against the Tigers in what has been a horror show of a season for them on defense. But they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Rebels committed six turnovers in that game with quarterback Matt Corral throwing five interceptions in the loss. He should clean that up a bit in this bowl game. Ole Miss has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road after a game where they turned the ball over at least four times — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games on the road after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Corral will be without his top two targets in wide receiver Elijah Moore and tight end Kenny Yeboah who have opted out for the NFL draft. But those two did not play against LSU — and they still gained 558 total yards with 251 of those yards in the air. Corral needs to make better decisions — and head coach Lane Kiffin’s offensive schemes should generate plenty of yardage no matter who is out there. The Rebels rushed for 307 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last game. They may be without running back Jerron Early who is questionable with an injury. Ole Miss has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after pulling off an upset win as a double-digit dog. The Hoosiers won that game despite being outgained by -125 net yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 6 points in their last game. Indiana defeated Maryland in their previous game by a 27-11 score — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. This team did most of their good work this season with the dynamic Michael Penix, Jr. but he is out the season with an ankle injury. The offense is simply not the same with Jack Tuttle under center. The Hoosiers gained only 217 yards against Badgers — and they have thrown for only 130 and 115 yards in their two games since Tuttle inherited the quarterbacking gig. Indiana is 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams will be motivated since the Hoosiers have not won a bowl game since 1991 while the Rebels have not won a bowl game since 2016. But Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field — and Ole Miss is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games on a neutral field. The Rebels are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games. Look for a close game with Ole Miss’ offense keeping them in this game. 25* CFB ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Mississippi Rebels (493) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (494). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (491) minus the point(s) versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (492) in the Gator Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kentucky (4-6) looks to close out their season after a 41-18 win against South Carolina as an 11.5-point favorite on December 5th. NC State (8-3) has won four games in a row with their 23-13 win against Georgia Tech as a 7-point favorite on December 5th. The Gator Bowl is played at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Kentucky looks pretty unappealing to bettors with their 4-6 record — but they are battle-tested from their SEC schedule. Head coach Mark Stoops’ team should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a victory by at least 20 points. The Wildcats did get their offense cranking as they generated 492 yards against the Gamecocks. Kentucky is tough when they can match some scoring punch with their consistent quality defense. The Wildcats have covered the  point spread in 6 straight games after gaining at least 475 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Kentucky’s spread option attack was good for 291 rushing yards — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. They will have an interim offensive coordinator for this game after Stoopes sacked their current OC for the quarterbacks coach for the Los Angeles Rams. They should have some wrinkles for this game. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing for more than 20 points in their last game. They are also 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. NC State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a win at home against a conference rival. The Wolfpack have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread victory. And they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Despite their 8-3 record, NC State is being outgained by -26.7 net YPG — and they were outgained by -58.2 net YPG in their five games away from home.

FINAL TAKE: The Wolfpack have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field as a dog. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the ACC. Kentucky has covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams outside the SEC — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as a favorite. 10* CFB Gator Bowl ESPN Special with the Kentucky Wildcats (491) minus the point(s) versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (492). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (333) and the Clemson Tigers (334) in the Sugar Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (6-0) won the Big Ten Championship Game with their 22-10 win over Northwestern as a 16.5-point favorite on December 19th. Clemson (10-1) won the ACC Championship Game with their 34-10 win against Notre Dame on December 19th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers cruise into this game with three straight point spread covers since Trevor Lawrence returned to action after his positive COVID test. Clemson has played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their last two games as a favorite. They crushed Virginia Tech by a 45-10 score prior to the ACC Championship Game — and they have played 22 of their last 31 games on the road after winning their last two games by at least three touchdowns. The Tigers have not allowed more than 17 points in their last three games — and they have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in three straight games. Clemson did generate 541 yards against the Irish — but they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Tigers are fifth in the nation by allowing only 298.5 YPG. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field as a favorite — and they have played 19 of their last 28 game Under the Total in bowl games. Ohio State rushed for 399 yards in the Big Ten Championship Game — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 350 yards in their last game. The Buckeyes will want to build off that effort to keep Trevor Lawrence off the field. They have gained at least 491 yards in all six of their games — but they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in four straight games. Additionally, Ohio State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in bowl games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This is Clemson’s sixth straight College Football Semifinals appearance — and the previous five Semifinals all finished Under the Total. The Tigers’ defensive coordinator Brent Venables is the best in the business — and he has his defenses ready to go on all cylinders for these games. This is a rematch of last year’s College Football Semifinals which Clemson won by a 29-23 score. Stalled drives kept that game Under (frustratingly for us, last year). Ohio State generated 516 yards but only scored those 23 points. With both Josh Fields and Trevor Lawrence playing once again in this rematch, both teams’ defensive coaching staffs have worked on this hypothetical rematch against these specific quarterbacks for over a calendar year. 10* CFB Friday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (333) and the Clemson Tigers (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (333) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (334) in the Sugar Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (6-0) won the Big Ten Championship Game with their 22-10 win over Northwestern as a 16.5-point favorite on December 19th. Clemson (10-1) won the ACC Championship Game with their 34-10 win against Notre Dame on December 19th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: It cannot be understated how significant a negative impact it was for Ohio State to have 22 players out in the Big Ten Championship Game — including their best wide receiver Chris Olave and one of their best defensive players in linebacker Baron Browning. Now, more than ever, I am embracing patience and due diligence before releasing plays after getting burned that morning (and we still should have covered that game with the Buckeyes’ final offensive drive stopping at the 1-yard line as time expired). A few important thoughts guided my decision this morning. The Buckeyes declared wide receiver Chris Olave as available to play this morning (along with their other players including Browning). Many of the 22 players impacted by COVID did not take part in full practice -- but that is not all that uncommon during the season (although not ideal). Now there is a narrative developing that Clemson has a situational advantage for this game having played in five more games. Maybe — although I have never heard the same argument made in college basketball (e.g. Duke has played in five more games than North Carolina — edge Blue Devils!). I just think this intangible is being significantly overplayed. Even though Ohio State has played six fewer games, they have been practicing the entire time! I mean, Ryan Day was pulling two-a-days in August even when the Big Ten canceled their darn season. And it is not as if Ohio State has been practicing against the local Columbus high school team in place of getting those five extra games against The Citadel and Syracuse that Clemson enjoyed. They were practicing and being coached-up playing against each other. Yes, statistically-speaking, elite teams improve in their efficiency numbers as the season moves forward — but not all of that improvement is contained to their game-day experiences. And, by-the-way, if we are going to become laptop fundamentalists on this point (despite the lack of data distinguishing between more practice time experience versus more practice and game time experience, then I would like to gently suggest that those same laptops give the edge to Opponent Adjusted Efficiency to the Buckeyes rather than the Tigers (with Pitt and Boston College and Syracuse and the Citadel). Furthermore, won't the five fewer games played now make this Buckeyes’ team relatively fresher? I remember all the darn Hot Takes four months ago that the potential postponement of the fall season until the spring would be devastating to the “student-athletes” who did not get a full offseason to recover before the fall because the regular season is so grueling. These are just bullshit arguments. What edge Clemson has in being a bit more battle-tested is likely mitigated with Ohio State being a little fresher. The Buckeyes have been motivated by revenge for this potential rematch for over a calendar year — with QB Josh Fields particularly anxious to redeem himself from that late interception in their 29-23 loss in the College Football Semifinals. Clemson has been mediocre at running the football as they average just 163.8 rushing YPG (68th in the nation) with little explosiveness as they had only three rushes for more than 40 yards.

FINAL TAKE: The laptops think this is closer to a coin flip game — and I agree. It not often that the Buckeyes are getting around a touchdown — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games as an underdog when getting 3.5 to 7 points. They have also covered the point spread in their last 4 games played in January. 25* CFB Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (333) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (331) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (332) in the Rose Bowl in the College Playoff Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (10-1) looks to bounce back from their 34-10 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game as an 11.5-point underdog on December 19th. Alabama (11-0) won the SEC Championship on December 19th with their 52-46 win over Florida as a 16.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH PLUS THE POINTS: Notre Dame will not be intimidated playing Alabama after two showdowns with a Clemson team that is as talented as the Crimson Tide. The Fighting Irish should come out swinging in this game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Notre Dame has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They also have covered the point spread in 9 straight games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Additionally, the Irish have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played in January. The Crimson Tide has scored at least 42 points in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 42 points in four straight games. Bama has been fortunate in the turnover battle having at least a +1 net turnover margin in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning the turnover battle in two straight games. They will be without starting center Landon Dickerson who suffered a season-ending injury against Florida — and he was the glue of that elite offensive line who called the line formations. Tide quarterback Mac Jones has been vulnerable when facing pressure — and the Irish rank 8th in the nation in pressure rate while also ranking 32nd in sack rate. Both Florida and OIe Miss proved that good offenses can move the ball against their defense: the Gators generated 462 yards of offense (with their 46 points) while the Rebels gained a whopping 647 yards against them for 48 points. The other nine teams Alabama played this season combined to average only 13.3 PPG along with just 4.5 Yards-Per-Play. The Tide’s defensive numbers appear inflated by a weak strength of schedule.

FINAL TAKE: Ultimately, the Irish appear undervalued in this spot against all might Alabama that the public loves to support. The laptops project this to be closer to a two-touchdown spread — so the value is on Notre Dame. Considering that there is a decent chance of some backdoor cover action even if Bama rolls since Nick Saban will want to conserve energy while Ian Book will still be airing it out, I expect the Irish to stay within the inflated number. 10* CFB Rose Bowl ESPN Special with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (331) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (332). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (331) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (332) in the Rose Bowl in the College Playoff Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (10-1) looks to bounce back from their 34-10 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game as an 11.5-point underdog on December 19th. Alabama (11-0) won the SEC Championship on December 19th with their 52-46 win over Florida as a 16.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Crimson Tide are going to score their share of points. They have scored at least 38 points in all eleven of their games while reaching at least 41 points in each of their games since their opening contest. They have the top Success Rate in the country which suggests they will convert first downs and score touchdowns in the Red Zone. Alabama has played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total after scoring at least 42 points in their last game — and they have scored at least 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after scoring at least 50 points in their last contest. And while they have scored at least 42 points in five straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 42 points in four straight contests. They raced out to a 35-17 lead at halftime against Florida — and they have played 18 of their last 24 games Over the Total after leading by at least 17 points at halftime of their last game. Both Florida and OIe Miss proved that good offenses can move the ball against their defense: the Gators generated 462 yards of offense (with their 46 points) while the Rebels gained a whopping 647 yards against them for 48 points. The other nine teams Alabama played this season combined to average only 13.3 PPG along with just 4.5 Yards-Per-Play. The Tide’s defensive numbers appear inflated by a weak strength of schedule. Can Notre Dame approach 30 points in this game? I think so. The most impressive thing about their upset victory against Clemson was the 90-yard drive they executed late in the game to force overtime after the Tigers had rallied in that game after their offense slowed down. The Fighting Irish scored less than 27 just twice this season. Perhaps head coach Brian Kelly will try to slow this game down by running the ball? Well, he didn’t try that against Clemson in that upset win. And playing conservatively fails as soon as a team trails by double-digits — so the Irish may not have a choice in how aggressive they play. Notre Dame has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 20 points in their last game. And while that game finished Under the 58 point total, the Irish have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Furthermore, the Irish have allowed their last two opponents to average 6.4 and 8.2 Yards-Per-Play — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 6.25 YPP.

FINAL TAKE: Alabama has seen the Over go 22-8-2 in their last 32 games when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total in January. Notre Dame has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing on the faster field turf rather than the grass field like at their home field. 25* CFB New Year’s Six Bowl Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (331) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (332). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (329) plus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (330) in the Citrus Bowl. THE SITUATION: Auburn (6-4) snapped a two-game losing streak on December 12th with a 24-10 win at Mississippi State as a 5.5-point favorite. Northwestern (6-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 22-10 loss to Ohio State as a 16.5-point underdog in the Big Ten Championship Game. This game will be played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Northwestern’s effort and final score against the Buckeyes is skewed to all the surprise players out for Ohio State because of the COVID outbreak that impacted that program. They played — and lost by 12 points (which should have been at least by another, infuriating, touchdown with that game ending on the Wildcats’ 1-yard line). This is an overvalued team. Remember, they lost by nine points at a Michigan State team that finished 2-5 (and we were on Sparty that day!). Northwestern won all three of their games decided by one scoring possession. Despite their 6-2 record, they only outgained their opponents by +9.8 net YPG. They have a profile of a 4-4 Big Ten WEST team. Not East. West Division. And whatever weight we could put on their elite defense that was 5th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 15.5 PPG (total defense: 338.8 YPG, ranking 21st in the nation), they will be out starting defensive end Eku Leota and cornerback Greg Newsome who opted-out of this game to enter the transfer window. Teams that have players transferring in lieu of their New Year’s Day bowl game usually lack the roster depth to just “plug-and-play.” As it is, Northwestern has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. The Wildcats possess a below-average offense that ranked 99th in the nation by averaging just 348.6 YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after not scoring at least 20 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not scoring at least 14 points in their last contest. Furthermore, this team has lost the turnover battle in three straight games which is a big red flag for this contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after losing the turnover battle in at least three straight games. Auburn has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss on the road. They also have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. And in their last 6 games played with at least two weeks of rest and preparation, they have covered the point spread in 4 of these games. This team lost their head coach when Gus Malzahn was fired. Boise State’s Bryan Harsin will take over next season with the interim head coach being Kevin Steele. I expect the Tiger players to rally around each other and their coordinators to make a statement after their head coach was sacked (the ole “don’t blame us, blame the idiot who got sacked” principle). Steele is feisty and should have his team fired up. And this entire coaching staff is using this game to audition for their next job. Auburn is dealing with opt-outs with running back Tank Bigsby joining wide receiver Anthony Schwarz and cornerbacks Christian Tuitt and Roger McCreary in choosing to not play in this game. Two things here: (1) these absences have been built into the line and (2) I trust the roster depth of Auburn far more than I do of Northwestern. The Tigers got some good news when safety James Sherwood confirmed he would play today.

FINAL TAKE: Auburn has a big edge at quarterback with Bo Nix having more talent and having played in many more big games than former Indiana transfer Patrick Ramsey for Northwestern. The Wildcats are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games outside the Big Ten while the Tigers have covered the point spread 6 of their last 7 games against non-conference foes. 10* CFB Citrus Bowl ABC-TV Special with the Auburn Tigers (329) plus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (327) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (328) in the Peach Bowl. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (9-0) maintained their unbeaten season on December 19th by defeating Tulsa in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game by a 27-24 score as a 13.5-point favorite. Georgia (7-2) closed out their regular season with a 49-14 win at Missouri as a 14-point favorite on December 12th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: We have seen this movie before: a Group of Five upstart feeling snubbed by the College Football Playoff Committee and the football punditry getting their opportunity to flex their muscles against a disappointed SEC team with questionable motivation experiencing a handful of opt-outs. Georgia will be without the following starters who have opted out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft: All-SEC right guard Ben Cleveland; linebacker (and heart of their defense) Monty Rice; cornerback Eric Stokes; running back James Cook; tight end Tre McKitty. The Bulldogs have also dealt with some tough injuries with starting defensive tackle Julian Rochester out with a knee and starting center Trey Hill out with his knee. Cornerback Richard LeCounte is questionable with a concussion. Those are a lot of starters not playing in this game — and it neutralizes the “SEC talent edge” against this Cincinnati team since the players Georgia will call on lack the big-time playing experience that helps make that conference the best in the country. I do appreciate that the Bulldogs’ offense is much better with former USC transfer J.T. Daniels under center. I considered this closely. Keep in mind that Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after scoring at least 35 points against an SEC rival in their last game. Daniels completed 16 of 27 passes for 299 yards with three touchdowns in the win against the Tigers — and he led a Bulldogs’ offense that racked up 615 yards. But Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. A powerful passing game is simply not the blueprint that has brought this program their best success under defensive head coach Kirby Smart. They beat South Carolina on the road in their previous game by a 45-16 score — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 42 points in two straight games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning their last two games on the road by double-digits. The red flag with this team is their pass defense that has allowed 253.4 passing YPG which is 92nd in the nation — and that is before their opt-outs on that side of the football. Behind junior quarterback Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati averages 242.2 passing YPG which is 48th in the nation. He leads a balanced offense that scores 39.3 PPG and averages 467.2 total YPG which is  15th and 20th in the nation. He completed 19 of 29 passes for 269 yards with a touchdown with the win over Tulsa. He also is a dangerous threat with his legs as he ran for 609 yards with 12 touchdowns on a 7.3 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Bearcats have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 6 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less against a conference rival. Cincinnati has an outstanding defense as well which has held their opponents to 16.0 PPG along with 310.8 total YPG which ranks 6th and 8th in the nation. This stout defense has helped them cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This game will be played in Atlanta — but I usually think the “home crowd edge” is overrated in bowl games even with stadiums at full capacity. Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games played on a neutral field with the total set in the 49.5 to 56 range. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the AAC. 10* CFB Peach Bowl ESPN Special with the Cincinnati Bearcats (327) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (328). Best of luck for us — Frank (PS: I will have a busy Friday card with at least one big 25* play in the CFB playoffs with likely the side and total in both games).

At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (211) and the Army Black Knights (212) in the Liberty Bowl. THE SITUATION: West Virginia (5-4) has lost three of their last five games after their 42-6 loss at Iowa State as a 6-point underdog on December 5th. Army (9-2) has won three straight games after their 10-7 upset win against Air Force as a 1-point underdog on December 19th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. Additionally, West Virginia has played 6 straight games Under the Total after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. The Mountaineers have scored only 14.8 PPG in those four road games. They are also scoring just 14.3 PPG in their last three games while averaging just 338.3 Yards-Per-Game during that span. West Virginia has a good statistical defense as they rank 5th in the nation by giving up just 297.2 total YPG. And while they gave up six touchdowns to the Cyclones in their last game, they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Mountaineers have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Army has played a decisive 36 of their last 51 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Black Knights have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They will bring an outstanding defense into this game that ranks second in the nation by both holding their opponents to 14.0 PPG and by allowing just 271.1 total YPG. The Black Knights have the best statistical defense in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 149.9 passing YPG. And while those numbers were improved by facing four triple-option teams this season, they picked off 13 passes this season. But the Army offense is limited as they have only scored 17.7 PPG in their last three contests while averaging just 240.0 YPG during that span. They have also played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total one playing on a neutral field as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Army has played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total in December — and West Virginia has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total in December. Even with the total in the low-40s, expect this game to stay Under in this battle of two stout defensive teams that can struggle in moving the ball on offense. 10* CFB Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (211) and the Army Black Knights (212). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (212) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (211) in the Liberty Bowl. THE SITUATION: Army (9-2) has won three straight games after their 10-7 upset win against Air Force as a 1-point underdog on December 19th. West Virginia (5-4) has lost three of their last five games after their 42-6 loss at Iowa State as a 6-point underdog on December 5th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: This bowl game presents the Mountaineers the opportunity to redeem themselves from an embarrassing loss — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after losing by at least four touchdowns on the road in their last game. West Virginia had covered the point spread in their previous three games before that bad loss to the Cyclones — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 0-4 with an average losing margin of -15.2 PPG. The Mountaineers have scored only 14.8 PPG in those four road games. They are also scoring just 14.3 PPG in their last three games while averaging just 338.3 Yards-Per-Game during that span. West Virginia has a good statistical defense as they rank 13th in the nation by allowing just 126.2 rushing YPG. But they have surrendered 183 rushing YPG over their last three contests in getting exposed by Texas, TCU, and then Iowa State. Now this Mountaineers team faces a triple-option rushing attack for the first time since 2015. Furthermore, they will face this challenge without one of their best defensive players in linebacker Tony Fields, Jr. who opted out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Army should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a contest where neither team scored more than 17 points. Additionally, Army has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They will bring an outstanding defense into this game that ranks second in the nation by both holding their opponents to 14.0 PPG and by allowing just 271.1 total YPG. The Black Knights have the best statistical defense in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 149.9 passing YPG. And while those numbers were improved by facing four triple-option teams this season, they picked off 13 passes this season.

FINAL TAKE: Army is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in December — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a neutral field. Head coach Jeff Monken will have his team ready to play. West Virginia is 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games in December and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight bowl games. Furthermore, the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games played on a neutral field when favored. 25* CFB Game of the Month with the Army Black Knights (212) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (211). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Ball State Cardinals (321) plus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (322). THE SITUATION: Ball State (6-1) looks to build off their 38-28 upset win against Buffalo in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game as a 12.5-point underdog on December 18th. San Jose State (322) remained unbeaten this season after they upset Boise State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game by a 34-20 score as a 6.5-point underdog. This game will be played on a neutral field at Arizona Stadium in Tuscon.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Ball State is a feisty veteran team that put it all together this season. Head coach Mike Neu got a two-year extension last year despite never posting a winning record in his first four years with the Cardinals program. Ball State finished 4-4 in the Mid-American Conference last season after losing three games in November by just eight combined points. Fourteen starters returned from that group — and after an opening loss to Miami (OH), this group rattled off six straight wins to get this opportunity to play in this bowl game. The Cardinals have covered the point spread 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Ball State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least two straight games against conference rivals. And while the Cardinals allowed 499 yards in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 405 yards in their last game. Ball State will not have running back Caleb Huntley who opted-out for this game but they have a capable backup in Tye Evans. Moving forward, the Cardinals have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. San Jose State may be due for a letdown after continuing their perfect season by upsetting Boise State. The Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after pulling off an upset loss to a conference rival as an underdog getting at least 6 points. San Jose State has also failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after pulling off an upset win by at least two touchdowns. And while the Spartans held the Broncos to just 258 yards of offense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. This San Jose State team may be too one-dimensional as they ranked only 85th in the nation by averaging 141.6 rushing YPG. I am skeptical of the strength of the Mountain West Conference this season — and this is the Spartans’ first non-conference game this season. San Jose State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference.

FINAL TAKE: Ball State has covered the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. The Cardinals have a gunslinger of a quarterback in Drew Plitt. Ball State should keep this game close against a San Jose team that is an unreliable favorite laying more than a touchdown. 10* CFB Arizona Bowl CBS-TV Special with the Ball State Cardinals (321) plus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (317) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (318) in the Armed Forces Bowl. THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (3-7) snapped a three-game losing streak on December 19th with a 51-32 upset win at home against Missouri as a 1-point underdog. Tulsa (6-2) looks to bounce back from a 27-24 loss at Cincinnati as a 13.5-point underdog on December 19th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOG PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): On paper, it may look easy to take a 6-2 team against the first-ever 3-7 team to play in a bowl game (I think … at least in my memory). Yet this Tulsa team was very fortunate to achieve six wins after winning three of their four games decided by one scoring possession. They pulled off a miracle comeback victory in double-overtime against Tulane. The analytics folks project a Golden Hurricane victory in the 7-point range — but the laptops do not have the benefit of a robust non-conference schedule to enrich its data. The anecdotal evidence so far in the bowl games does not suggest that the American Athletic Conference was strong this year. AAC teams have lost three of their four bowl games with a -34 net point differential in those games. The lone victor was Memphis who defeated Florida Atlantic representing Conference USA that is generally considered a step down in competition. The Golden Hurricane has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a loss by a field goal or less. And with senior quarterback Zach Smith completed only 13 of 30 passes against the Bearcats for just 166 yards with two interceptions in the loss, Tulsa has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last game. Tulsa has lost seven of their ten games — but these were all against SEC opponents. This is a team that upset LSU and played Georgia to just a 7-point loss in Athens. This is a roster of SEC talent which is generally a few notches above the quality of player in the American Athletic Conference. And the Bulldogs lost three of their four games decided by one scoring possession — this could have been a team with a 5-5 record with a couple of breaks. The offense improved under first-year head coach Mike Leach as he transitioned away from K.J. Costello to freshman Will Rogers at quarterback. Mississippi State scored 28.3 PPG while averaging 388.3 total YPG over their last three games which was +7.6 PPG and +41.1 YPG above their season averages. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a game at home where both teams scored at least 31 points. Mississippi State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games are losing five or six of their last seven games. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 5 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 4 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games in December. For Tulsa, this is their first bowl game since 2016 in the second-season under head coach Philip Montgomery. The weather will also be a bit dicey with rain expected and high winds in Fort Worth. The better athletes that were faced tougher tests this season will be on the Mississippi State sidelines — and Leach will want to go out a winner to build momentum for next season. 10* CFB Armed Forces Bowl ESPN Special with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (317) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (316) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (315) in the Cotton Bowl. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (8-2) won the Big 12 Conference Championship Game on December 19th with their 27-21 win over Iowa State as a 5-point favorite. Florida (8-3) lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game on December 19th by a 52-46 score as a 16.5-point underdog. This game will be played on a  neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Gators have seen eight players opt-out of this game as of this writing on Wednesday afternoon. The losses are significant. On offense, quarterback Kyle Trask has lost his top four targets in tight end Kyle Pitts and wide receivers Trevon Grimes and Kadarius Toney. Jacob Copeland is already out tonight due to COVID. These four players account for 174 receptions for 2778 yards with 34 touchdowns. Th cupboard is not dry for Trask — former Penn State transfer Brandon Shorter along with some intriguing freshman will get their opportunity in this game. But these are untested players. None of Trask’s targets tonight have caught more than 13 passes on third down or more than 13 passes of at least 20 yards. The Florida defense will be without leading tackler in linebacker Ventral Miller and senior nose tackle Kyre Campbell. They depart a disappointing Gators’ defense that allowed 28.6 PPG and 404.7 total YPG with both marks ranking 86th in the nation. These losses are simply too much to overcome for a team that got upset against LSU before being overrun by the Crimson Tide. As it is, Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games are losing two in a row to SEC rivals. The Gators surrendered 89 points in their last two games after giving up 37 to the Tigers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games. Florida has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a game where both teams scored at least 31 points. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Sooners have won seven games in a row after losing two of their first three games. This group is much better now at the end of December as compared to where they were in October. Redshirt freshman Spencer Rattler has steadily improved this season — he has completed 68.0% of his passes for 2784 yards with 25 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. Oklahoma also got back running back Rhamondre Stevenson and defensive end Ronnie Perkins in Game Six after both served five-game suspensions. Stevenson rushed for 479 yards with six touchdowns on a  5.8 Yards-Per-Carry average. Perkins registered 5.5 sacks. Under defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, this Oklahoma defense has made significant improvements. They ranked 19th in the nation by allowing only 334.6 YPG and they held their opponents to just 21.9 PPG. They will be without cornerback Tre Brown but he is their only opt-out as of this writing. Under Grinch, the Sooner rank in the top-ten in the nation in Havoc Rate.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma has lost three straight College Football Semifinals — they should be very motivated to get a win in a bowl game to end their season. The Sooners have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against SEC foes — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as a favorite. 10* CFB Cotton Bowl ESPN Special with the Oklahoma Sooners (316) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (315). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (312) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (311) in the Mayo Bowl. THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (3-3) evened their record at 3-3 on December 19th with their 20-17 win in overtime against Minnesota as a 10.5-point favorite. Wake Forest (4-4) looks to rebound from their 45-21 upset loss at Louisville as a 1-point favorite on December 12th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin enters this game having failed to cover the point spread in four straight games. While this has been disappointing to bettors, it does offer a good sign for this game. The Badgers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in four straight games. Additionally, Wisconsin has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 49 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. The Badgers’ defense will be the best unit in this game — by far. Wisconsin leads the nation by only allowing 263.5 total YPG. They are also 6th in the country by holding their opponents to just 15.7 PPG. Defensive coordinator Jim Leonard is one of the best in the business. The Badgers rank 5th in the nation in stopping both the run and the pass as they are allowing just 93.7 rushing YPG and 169.8 passing YPG. Redshirt freshman Graham Mertz began the season with a strong effort against Illinois before struggling the rest of the season. But this remains the Badgers’ most highly-coveted recruit at the quarterback position so his ceiling is high. Wisconsin should be playing better on offense than their 22.3 PPG scoring average suggests. The Badgers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the Big Ten. They also have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 bowl games played in December. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering an upset loss. Rust is a significant concern for this team as they have played only once since November 14th. Their strength of schedule also raises red flags. One of their four victories was against an FCS school in Campbell. Their three remaining wins against Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Syracuse were versus teams that did not end the year with a record over .500 — and those three teams combined for an 11-21 mark. Facing the Demon Deacons’ defense may be just what the doctor ordered for Wisconsin. Wake Forest allows 456.9 total YPG along with 31.6 PPG which ranks 107th and 77th in the FBS. Mertz should find success in the passing game against this Demon Deacons defense that allows 265.9 passing YPG which is 107th in the nation. Wake Forest ranks 93rd in the country in opponent’s Success Rate against the pass and the run. And in their four games away from home, the Demon Deacons allowed 40.8 PPG along with 469.8 YPG. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: There may be few head coaches that get more out of his talent that Dave Clawson — but he will be challenged in this game. Running back Kenneth Walker III and defensive end Carlos Basham, Jr. are both opting out of this game. 20* CFB Mayo Bowl ESPN Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (312) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Colorado Buffaloes (298) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (297) in the Alamo Bowl. THE SITUATION: Colorado (4-1) lost their first game of the season on December 12th with their 38-21 loss to Utah as a 3-point favorite. Texas (6-3) closed out their regular season on December 5th with a 69-31 win at Kansas State as a 7-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Alamodome in San Antonio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUFFALOES PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado has been one of the surprises of the season with first-year head coach Karl Dorrell taking this job in late February just a few weeks before COVID would shut things down but still leading his team to four wins in five games. The Buffaloes are 16th in the nation by averaging 218.4 rushing YPG. This will be a highly-motivated football team playing in just their second bowl game in the last 13 seasons. Colorado likes to recruit in Texas which was an important source of players back in their Big 8 conference days — so they will want to take full advantage of the opportunity to play in San Antonio. The Buffaloes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Pac-12. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Longhorns have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. And while the Texas offense exploded for 608 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 42 points in their last game. This team has been pretty fortunate with turnover luck. They rank 18th in the nation with a +0.78 net turnover margin per game mark. They forced three turnovers for a +3 net turnover mark against the Wildcats to help fuel that victory. But the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games are forcing at least three turnovers in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 55 road games after enjoying a +3 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Texas did not turn the ball over again Kansas State — and they have not turned the ball over more than once in five straight games. Yet the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not turning the ball over in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not committing more than one turnover in at least five straight games. Texas had turned the ball over seven times in a three-game stretch before this recent five-game run. The Longhorns run defense surrendered 274 yards to the Wildcats which is a dangerous sign when facing this Colorado team. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. And their pass defense ranks 115th in the nation by allowing 274.2 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Texas has also faced a handful of opt-outs in what has been a disappointing three-loss season. How motivated will they be to face a Pac-12 team that had three straight 5-7 seasons before this year? The Longhorns are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. 10* CFB Alamo Bowl ESPN Special with the Colorado Buffaloes (298) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (297). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (296) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (295) in the Cheez-It Bowl. THE SITUATION: Miami (8-2) gets to take the field again after being embarrassed in their last game on December 12th in a 62-26 upset loss to North Carolina as a 3-point favorite. Oklahoma State (7-3) comes off a 42-3 victory at Baylor on December 12th as a 6-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Miami should be motivated to get the bad taste out of their mouths in this bowl game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Their defense was simply a mockery against the Tar Heels as they surrendered 778 yards. The Hurricanes are dealing with some opt-outs with defensive linemen Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche not playing to prepare for the NFL draft. While those two players combined for 12.5 sacks and 30 tackles-for-loss, what Miami needs is a better effort from players who want to be on the field after the performance against North Carolina. The Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a game where at least 80 combined points were scored. The Tar Heels raced out to a 34-10 halftime lead in that game — but Miami has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after allowing at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. They also surrendered a remarkable 555 yards on the ground in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. The good news for the Hurricanes is that D’Eriq King will be playing in this game and returning for a final season next year. The quarterback has completed 64% of his passes for 2573 passing yards with 22 touchdowns while adding 526 rushing yards with another four touchdowns. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win against a Big 12 rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread after winning two of their last three games. The Cowboys did not cover the point spread in their win over the Bears — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not forcing a turnover in their last game. Oklahoma State will have their star wide receiver, Tylan Wallace, playing in this game but their star running back, Chuba Hubbard, has opted out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in  4 of their last 5 games as a favorite — and Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. The Hurricanes have only won one bowl game since 2006 — and with big motivation to redeem themselves from their bad loss against the Tar Heels and a geographical edge for this game being played in their home state, they should win this game (but take the points for some insurance!). 10* CFB Cheez-It Bowl ESPN Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (296) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (295). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Liberty Flames (283) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (284) in the Cure Bowl. THE SITUATION: Liberty (8-1) bounced-back from their 15-14 loss at North Carolina State to shut out UMass at home by a 45-0 score on November 27th. Coastal Carolina (11-0) remained undefeated this season with the 42-38 win at Troy on December 12th as a 12-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FLAMES PLUS THE POINTS: Liberty should build off the momentum of their shutout win as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a victory by at least 17 points. The Flames not only narrowly lost to the Wolfpack but they defeated Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. While the Chanticleers are getting all the Group of Five love for being undefeated, this Liberty team behind head coach Hugh Freeze wants more respect. They have averaged 513.7 total YPG over their last three games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 475 YPG in their last three games. Coastal Carolina had failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. The Chanticleers have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 31 points. Furthermore, Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when at least 80 combined points were scored. Quarterback Grayson McCall completed 24 of 29 passes for 338 yards in the win over Troy — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. And while Troy has averaged 484 Yards-Per-Game over their last three contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after averaging at least 450 YPG over a three game-stretch.

FINAL TAKE: Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Liberty has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Cure Bowl ESPN Special with the Liberty Flames (283) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UTSA Roadrunners (286) plus the points versus the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (285) in the First Responder Bowl. THE SITUATION: The University of Texas-San Antonio (7-4) has won three games in a row with their 49-17 win over North Texas as a 1.5-point favorite on November 28th. UL-Lafayette (9-1) has won six games in a row after their 24-21 upset win at Appalachian State on December 4th as a 3.5-point underdog. This game will be played on a neutral field at Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: I worry about the motivation for the Ragin’ Cajuns who entered the season trying to prove they were the best football team not representing a Power Five conference. They avenged two straight Sun Belt Conference championship game losses to the Mountaineers in their most recent game — and they had the chance to avenge their lone loss this season to Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. Yet that opportunity was canceled because of COVID leaving these players with a lackluster game against a four-loss UTSA team where they are two-touchdown favorites. Meh. But the Ragin’ Cajuns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning six games in a row. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by six points or less. And while UL-Lafayette has forced three turnovers in each of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after forcing at least three turnovers in two straight games. UTSA generated 624 yards in their win over the Mean Green in their last contest — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Roadrunners have got their offense cranking during their three-game winning streak as they are averaging 41.3 PPG over that stretch while averaging 509.3 total YPG. They also have held their last three opponents to just 19.3 PPG. They did not commit a turnover against North Texas — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not committing a turnover in their last game. Furthermore, UTSA has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a bye week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: UTSA has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. UL-Lafayette has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CFB First Responder Bowl ABC-TV Special with the UTSA Roadrunners (286) plus the points versus the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (285). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (287) plus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (288) in the Lending Tree Bowl. THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (5-6) has won three games in a row after their 37-19 win at Charlotte as a 3-point underdog on December 6th. Georgia State (5-4) has won three of their last four games after their 30-24 win against Georgia Southern as a 2.5-point favorite on November 28th. This game will be played at Ladd Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky should build off their momentum in this game. They have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after winning two games in a row — and they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, the Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games on the road after a point spread cover. Western Kentucky possesses an outstanding defense that is 17th in the nation in Success Rate against the pass and 7th in the FBS in opponent’s pass completion rate. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. They are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 58 games as an underdog, Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 39 of these games. Georgia State victory the Eagles flew Over the 51 point total — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. And while the Panthers’ surrendered a whopping 296 rushing yards to Georgia Southern while being outgained on the ground by -251 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after being outrushed by at least 150 yards in their last game. Additionally, Georgia State is just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and Western Kentucky is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in December. 10* CFB Lending Tree Bowl ESPN Special with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (287) plus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (279) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (280) in the Camellia Bowl. THE SITUATION: Marshall (7-2) has suffered two straight upset losses after losing in the Conference USA championship game last Friday night to UAB by a 22-13 score as a 4.5-point favorite. Buffalo (5-1) was also upset last Friday in the Mid-American Conference championship game by a 38-28 as a 12.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Cramton Bowl in Birmingham, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD PLUS THE POINTS: Marshall had won their first seven games this season before getting upset at home to Rice by a 20-0 score before the Conference USA championship game. The Thundering Herd should get their offense going again after two subpar games as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games. Marshall does have running back Brenden Knox opting out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft but they still have Sheldon Evans who ran for 248 yards with four touchdowns splitting time with Knox. The Thundering Herd still averaged 30.6 PPG this season. Redshirt freshman Grant Wells should play better in this bowl game after struggling in these last two contests. Marshall has only covered the point spread once in their last five games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Thundering Herd have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games as an underdog. They also have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 55 road games after playing at least three straight games against conference rivals. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games on the road against teams with a winning record. The Bulls’ live off running the football — they lead the nation by averaging 309.5 rushing YPG. They expect to have Jaret Patterson for this game despite an injured leg that limited him to only 47 yards on 18 carries last week. He may not be at 100% — and he may only see limited action this afternoon. Marshall is outstanding in stopping the run — they are second in the nation by allowing only 88.9 rushing YPG. They hold opposing rushers to just 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry — and Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who do not allow their opponents to rush for more than 2.75 YPC. The Bulls have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Mid-American Conference.

FINAL TAKE: Marshall has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 bowl games. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Camellia Bowl ESPN Special with the Marshall Thundering Herd (279) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (277) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (276) in the New Mexico Bowl. THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (4-4) has won two of their last three games with their 38-12 win over UNLV as an 18.5-point favorite on December 12th. Houston (3-4) has lost three of their last four games with their 30-27 upset loss at Memphis as a 7-point favorite on December 12th. The New Mexico Bowl was moved to a neutral field at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas, given COVID restrictions in Albuquerque.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: These are far from ideal circumstances for the Cougars. Houston has had eight games either canceled, postponed, or moved due to COVID this fall. This will be just their second game since November 14th so rust is a significant concern. As it is, this is a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two of their last three games. Head coach Dana Holgorsen is also experiencing a handful of opt-outs from some of his best players. Two-time All-American Athletic Conference wide receiver Marquez Stevenson will bypass this game to focus on the Senior Bowl. Defensive end Payton Turner with his team-leading 5.0 sacks along with linebacker Grant Stuard who led the conference with 8.7 tackles per game will not play in this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Houston holds a geographical advantage with this game being played about 265 miles from campus. But the Cougars were outscored by -5.0 PPG while outgained by -20.0 net YPG when playing away from home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a bye week. And after their upset loss to the Tigers, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in December. Hawai’i had their offense cranking against the Rebels as they generated 530 yards in that victory — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while Houston is 31st in the FBS by averaging 268.1 passing YPG, the Rainbow Warriors are 20th in the nation by limiting their opponents to only 190.6 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing a team from the American Athletic Conference. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams from the Mountain West Conference — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 bowl games. With this being the Rainbow Warriors’ first bowl game on the mainland since 2008 and with them being coached by a veteran in Todd Graham in his first year with the program, expect a spirited effort from the underdogs. 10* CFB New Mexico Bowl ESPN Special with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (277) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Florida Atlantic Owls (275) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (276) in the Montgomery Bowl. THE SITUATION: Florida Atlantic (5-3) aw their four-game winning streak snapped on December 10th with a 45-31 upset loss at home to Southern Mississippi as a 9.5-point favorite. Memphis (7-3) has won four of their last five games with their 30-27 upset win against Houston as a 7-point underdog on December 12th. This game is being played at Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: FAU has suffered two straight upset losses with their setback to the Golden Eagles preceded by a 20-9 upset loss at Georgia Southern as a 2.5-point favorite. These disappointments should ensure that head coach Willie Fritz will have his team ready to play in this bowl game. After his unceremonious departure from Florida State last season, Fritz cannot afford to let up in the slightest. As it is, Florida Atlantic has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after getting upset twice in a row. They also have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after losing two games in a row by double-digits. And in their last 9 games after a point spread loss, the Owls have played 7 of covered the point spread in 7 of these games. FAU should be able to slow down the Tigers’ offensive attack. With former South Florida head coach Jim Leavitt as his defensive coordinator, the Owls have been outstanding on defense for most of the season. They rank 9th in the nation by allowing only 16.5 PPG — and they rank 15th in the FBS by giving up just 326.4 total YPG. This strong defensive play has helped them cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. Memphis is 26th in the nation with a total offense that averages 451.5 YPG. But the Tigers have scored only 20.3 PPG in their last three contests while averaging just 296.7 total YPG. They managed just 300 total yards in their upset victory over Houston. Memphis has then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset win over an American Athletic Conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a narrow win by three points or less at home. Memphis goes back on the road for this bowl game where they have lost three of their four games this season while scoring just 17.0 PPG and averaging -80 YPG below their season average. Opt-outs have taken away some of the best skill position talents from the offense of Ryan Silverfield’s team in his first year as the head coach of the program. Running back Kenneth Gainwell along with wide receivers Damonte Coxie and John Williams are no longer with the team despite starting the year on the roster. The Tigers were outgained by the Cougars in their last game by -109 net yards but eked out that game with the help of an 85-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. The Memphis defense is sketchy as they are allowing 448.7 YPG which is 102nd in the nation. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games in December including five of their last six games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight bowl games. FAU has won and covered the point spread in 4 straight bowl games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games played on a neutral field. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Game of the Year with the Florida Atlantic Owls (275) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (274) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (273) in the New Orleans Bowl. THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (5-4) looks to rebound from a 52-10 loss at TCU as a 21-point underdog to close out their regular season on December 12th. Georgia Southern (7-5) has lost three of their last four games with their 34-26 loss at home to Appalachian State as an 8.5-point underdog on December 12th. This game will be played at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia Southern has serious injuries at quarterback. Their four-year starter, Shai Werts, is doubtful because of a shoulder injury that has kept him out of the last two games. I have waited on this game for updates on Werts status — as of 1:30 PM ET, I am seeing speculation that he is listed as number one on the depth chart but that could be a symbolic gesture. Even if he plays, he may not be at 100% and head coach Chad Lunsford may limit his time on the field. This is far from ideal for the Eagles even if he plays. The offense would be down to third-stringer Miller Mosley if Werts cannot go since second-stringer Justin Tomlin is out with an ankle. Werts has been the engine behind this offense for four years. Mosley completed only 5 of 14 passes in relief against the Mountaineer for 122 yards with a touchdown but two interceptions. He added 49 rushing yards but on 13 carries — he lacks the mobility of Werts and Tomlin. Georgia Southern managed only 349 yards against Appalachian State without Werts. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing three of their last four games. Furthermore, Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. And while the Eagles have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in at least four or five of their last six contests. Louisiana Tech will benefit from the time to prepare for the Georgia Southern shotgun/pistol spread offense. They surrendered 333 rushing yards to the Horned Frogs in their last game but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 333 rushing yards in their last contest. Three turnovers played a large role in that blowout loss to TCU — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after turning the ball over at least three times in their last game. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Louisiana Tech has only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. And while the Bulldogs have played three straight games Over the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 road games after playing at least two straight Overs. Head coach Skip Holtz will not have senior quarterback Luke Anthony available for this game given his leg injury but that just means the keys to the offense go to sophomore Aaron Allen who has split time under center this season. Allen has completed 64.1% of his passes for 561 yards with four touchdown passes but five interceptions. The game plan should be tailored to better take advantage of Allen’s dual-threat strengths. Frankly, Holtz may also give snaps to one of the two freshman quarterbacks on the roster. No matter what, we can be confident that Holtz will be taking this game very seriously. Louisiana Tech has won six straight bowl games which is the longest streak in the nation. His teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 bowl games and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing on a neutral field. Holtz’s teams have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games playing off a bye week.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia Southern won five of their seven games decided by one-scorning possession — and they were outscored by -4.0 PPG and outgained by -45.2 net YPG when playing away from home. Expect a close game. 10* CFB New Orleans Bowl ESPN Special with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (274) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Central Florida Knights (271) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (272) in the Boca Raton Bowl. THE SITUATION: Central Florida (6-3) enters this bowl game coming off a 58-46 win at South Florida on November 27th as a 25-point favorite. BYU (10-1) rebounded from their 22-17 loss at Coastal Carolina to defeat San Diego State by a 28-14 score on December 12th as a 16.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Central Florida has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. And while UCF raced out to a 31-14 halftime lead against the Bulls, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after leading by at least 17 points in the first half of their last game. The Knights saw 17 players opt-out from the team by October either from COVID concerns or legal problems — but head coach Josh Heupel has been able to roll with it with the deep roster he has assembled. Wide receiver Marlon Williams opted-out for this game to prepare for the NFL — but this group looks pretty much intact from the one that lost to Cincinnati by just three points. Heupel is 41-6 in his three seasons as the head coach of this program. It is rare that his team is not in a position to win in the fourth quarter. The Regression Gods were on his side early in his career here as the Knights enjoyed a five-game winning streak in games decided by one scoring possession during their 25-game unbeaten streak in 2017-18. The fickle Regression Gods were bound to make their presence known — and UCF lost all three of their games last year by seven combined points. These Gods were not done with the Knights this season as their three losses to Tulsa, Memphis, and Cincinnati were by just 12 combined points. UCF is now 1-7 in their last eight games decided by one scoring possession under Heupel. So don’t bet the money-line (PS: don’t do that anyway) — grab the points and be happy with cashing a winning ticket. The Knights have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog. They also have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 games against teams outside the American Athletic Conference, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. Led by sophomore quarterback Dillon Gabriel, UCF is second in the nation by averaging 585.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and they are fifth in the nation with a 44.3 PPG scoring average. Gabriel has seven games where he has passed for at least 300 yards — and he topped 400 passing yards in four of those games. BYU has thrived in being opportunistic on defense — they are 18th in the nation with a +0.82 net turnover margin. But the Knights have not turned the ball over more than once in six straight games. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning at least four or five of their last six games. And while BYU has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game, BYU is just 1-3-1 ATS. Junior QB Zach Wilson did pass for 310 yards with three touchdowns against the Aztecs — but they are just 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the total set at 70 or higher — and they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. BYU has failed to cover the point spread 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: The laptops love this BYU team — but those analytics are relying on limited data from non-conference games that serves to vet out relative conference strength (already the college basketball quantitative projections are much better given the much larger sample size even by December). Central Florida has a geographical edge with a short trip from Orlando to Boca Raton. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 bowl games. 10* CFB Boca Raton Bowl ESPN Special with the Central Florida Knights (271) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (270) plus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (269) in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. THE SITUATION: Nevada (6-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 30-20 upset loss against San Jose State (in the Spartans’ temporary home in La Vegas) as a 2.5-point favorite on December 11th. Tulane (6-5) has won four of their last five games after their 35-21 win over Memphis as a 3.5-point favorite on December 5th. This game is played on Boise State’s neutral blue field in Idaho.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach Jay Norvell should have his team ready to play in this game as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after suffering an upset loss against a conference rival — and this includes them covering the point spread in these last three situations. Nevada has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against a loss to a Mountain West foe. Additionally, the Wolf Pack is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Nevada is led by sophomore quarterback Carson Strong who is completing 69.4% of his passes for 2587 yards. The Wolf Pack did surrender 506 yards against the Spartans in their last game — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Norvell’s teams usually play well in situations like this. Nevada has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. They are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games in December. Additionally, the Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as an underdog — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games when they are an underdog on a neutral field. Tulane has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home. The Green Wave have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win against an American Athletic Conference opponent. Head coach Willie Fritz had to deal with instability in his coaching staff on both sides of the ball in preparation for this game. Offensive coordinator Will Hall left the program to take the head coaching gig at Southern Miss. Fritz dismissed defensive coordinator Jeff Curtis after the Memphis game. Tulane is also dealing with attrition on their defensive line with defensive tackles De’Andre Williams and Jeffery Johnson out for this game with injuries while Cameron Sample is questionable. The Green Wave registered 36 sacks this season but 10 of them were from another five came from Sample — and Williams is the straw that stirs the drink in the middle. Despite their winning record, Tulane was outgained by -23.1 net YPG. And in their six games away from Orleans on the road, the Green Wave were outgained by -92.5 net YPG. The Tulane pass rush has been their only salvation from a porous pass defense that ranks 115th in the nation by allowing 279.5 passing YPG. And this deficiency plays right into the hands of Nevada who rank 9th in the nation by averaging 325.1 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Nevada lost a close game to Ohio in last year’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl by a 30-21 score — so not only is this team familiar with the blue field in Boise but they have the opportunity to redeem themselves from that loss. The Wolf Pack are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games. Tulane has won their last two bowl games under Fritz so the urgency of this opportunity may not be as great. 10* CFB Famous Idaho Potato Bowl ESPN Special with the Nevada Wolf Pack (270) plus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (267) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (268). THE SITUATION: North Texas (4-5) became bowl eligible in this unusual COVID-ridden season with their 45-43 win at UTEP in their last regular-season game on December 11th as a 10-point favorite. Appalachian State (8-3) enters this game coming off a 34-26 win over Georgia Southern as an 8.5-point favorite on December 12th. The inaugural Myrtle Beach Bowl will be played at the home of Coastal Carolina at Brooks Stadium in Conway, South Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN PLUS THE POINTS: Appalachian State will likely be flat in this less than prestigious bowl game in this bizarre season. As it is, the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And while Appalachian State has only covered the point spread once in their last eight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not covering the point spread in at least three of their last four games. Additionally, the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 6 games as a favorite, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread 5 times. North Texas has not covered the point spread in three straight games as well as six of their last eight contests — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. And while the Mean Green have allowed their last three opponents to score at least 42 points, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 42 points in three straight games. North Texas should be able to score points — they are averaging 35.1 PPG along with 515.0 total YPG this season. Head coach Seth Littrell has been rotating quarterbacks this season between sophomores Austin Aune and Jason Bean — but with Aune declared out for this game, Bean should get the majority of snaps and a game-plan tailored to his skill set. This will be Bean’s sixth straight start — he is completing only 52.4% of his passes but he averages 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt with 12 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Bean is the more mobile of the two QBs as well — he has rushed for 336 yards this season. He will be without his best weapon in wide receiver Jaelon Darden who leads the nation with 19 touchdowns but the Mean Green have other options at the position that will get an opportunity. Appalachian State is the type of team that North Texas has success against. The Mountaineers average 23.5 first downs per game while being on offense for 32:40 minutes per game. The Mean Green has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams who average at least 32 minutes per game on offense while tallying at least 21 first downs per game.

FINAL TAKE: Appalachian State has won five straight bowl games but this will be the first one with veteran offensive line coach Shawn Clark will be the head coach in his first year with the program. North Texas has played in a bowl game in four of the last five seasons — but they missed out last year after losing to Utah State in the New Mexico Bowl in 2018. Littrell is on the hot seat in Denton in his fifth year with the program — he needs to end the year on a good note. I am not predicting an upset here — but I am very confident that this North Texas team is taking this game very seriously. Getting 21 or so points is too many to pass up. 10* CFB Myrtle Beach Bowl ESPN Special with the North Texas Mean Green (267) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (240) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (239). THE SITUATION: Florida (8-2) looks to rebound from their 37-34 upset loss at home to LSU last Saturday as a 24-point underdog. Alabama (10-0) completed their undefeated regular season last week with their 52-3 win at Arkansas as a 28-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GATORS PLUS THE POINTS: Look for this Florida team to play one of their best games of the season after getting embarrassed last week in a game that ruined their college football playoff aspirations. The Tigers were extremely fortunate to win that when considering that they were outlined by -291 net yards. The win probability metrics given the underlying stats are quite low for LSU after that game — and they needed that personal foul penalty resulting from a thrown shoe after a Florida defensive stop to keep their winning drive alive that culminated in a 57-yard field goal. The Gators have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after suffering an upset loss at home as a double-digit favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss to an SEC rival as a double-digit favorite. Florida has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing on the road after a loss by a touchdown or less to a conference opponent. The Gators were without tight end Kyle Pitts in that game but he is expected to play and is the most dangerous target in their passing game. I am not sure that Florida can slow down the Alabama offense — although they have held their last three opponents to only 22.0 PPG and 324.3 total YPG. But Florida should be able to keep this game competitive due to their explosive offense behind quarterback Kyle Trask. The Gators racked up a whopping 609 yards last week against LSU. They are scoring 41.2 PPG while averaging 513.5 total YPG. Florida has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in expected higher scoring games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Trask is completing 70.2% of his passes for 3717 yards with 40 touchdown passes and only five interceptions. Alabama is playing their third straight game away from home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games. And while the Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in seven straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Alabama offense appears unstoppable — but the Razorbacks did a decent job of holding them to 433 yards last week which is over 100 yards below their season average. One of their touchdowns came from an 84-yard punt return for a touchdown. And while the Tide has scored at least 42 points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 42 points in at least four games in a row. Alabama forced four Arkansas turnovers last week for a +3 net turnover margin — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 45 games after forcing at least four turnovers in their last game and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after enjoying a +3 or better net turnover margin in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games when playing on a neutral field as a favorite in the 14.5 to 17 point range. Too many points to pass up for a team that will likely put up a big number on the scoreboard tonight. 25* CFB CBS-TV Game of the Year with the Florida Gators (240) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (239). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (229) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (230). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (5-0) takes the field again after remaining unbeaten this season two weeks ago with their 52-12 victory against Michigan State as a 21.5-point favorite. Northwestern (6-1) comes off a 28-10 win over Illinois as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: I am not a believer in the Wildcats. Their 6-1 start is impressive — but I suspect this is a team we would have made money on when fading them in their late Big Ten conference games after a start like this. Instead, with the COVID-shortened season, they show up in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game. Maybe head coach Pat Fitzgerald’s team makes it to this game under normal circumstances — but that is a testament to the weakness of the Big Ten West where Northwestern compiled their impressive stats in this shortened season. The only team that the Wildcats have played from the Big Ten East was a bad Michigan State team — and somehow Sparty scored 29 points against this supposed elite defense! Nebraska tallied 442 total yards against this Wildcats’ defense as well. I suspect Ohio State is going to expose this unit. And Northwestern simply does not have the talent on offense to reach 30 points the way Indiana did against the Buckeyes to keep things relatively close. Their quarterback Patrick Ramsey transferred away from the Hoosiers because he was losing his job to Michael Penix, Jr. who is a dynamic dual-threat. Ramsey is a classic drop-back passer who lacks mobility. And while he has passed for 1218 yards, he is averaging only 5.8 Yards-Per-Attempt with only nine touchdown passes and six interceptions in his seven starts. Northwestern scored only 22.7 PPG in their last three contests — and they average just 283.3 total YPG in their three games away from Evanston. Those are all ominous numbers for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a point spread to cover as a double-digit favorite. They are also 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Wildcats did not force a turnover last week against the Illini — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not forcing a turnover in their last game. And while they rushed for 411 yards last week while tapping into their younger running backs on their depth chart like freshman Cam Porter, they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Ohio State’s defense has another level of athlete than what Illinois had to offer. The Buckeyes’ have been adjusting to life without Chase Young — but they still rank second in the nation in Expected Points Allowed per pass attempt. They are also holding opposing rushers to just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Ohio State has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game after holding Sparty to just 261 yards. They also have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Led by quarterback Justin Fields, the Buckeyes are an offensive juggernaut who is scoring 46.6 PPG while averaging 532.4 total YPG. Additionally, Ohio State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games played on a neutral field. Ohio State usually saves a few tricks for their rivalry game with Michigan that they still have yet to unveil since that game was canceled. And the Buckeyes need style points to ensure they are one of the four teams in the playoff. Expect a blowout where head coach Ryan Day never has his team take their foot off the proverbial gas pedal. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (229) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (230). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (231) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (232). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (7-2) has won six straight games after their 27-14 win over Baylor two weeks ago on December 5th as a 23-point favorite. Iowa State (8-2) has won five straight games with their 42-6 win against West Virginia as a 6-point favorite two weeks ago. This game will be played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma lost two of their first three games this season — including a 37-30 setback to the Cyclones on October 3rd as a 7.5-point favorite. There are three reasons why I am willing to give the Sooners a pass for that slow start. First, COVID has been a challenge for everyone — and it has had a disproportionate effect on many football programs. I think it particularly hit many outstanding football coaches who rely on their abilities to coach up talent — and being robbed of teaching time played a toll. Second, I think it is underappreciated how much some coaches nurture improvement from their players as the season goes on. If (and when) the College Football Playoff expands beyond four teams to allow for teams with more than one loss, we will likely witness more teams make deep postseason runs benefited from the improvement that comes from great coaching. We see this all the time in college basketball. Third, this Sooners team added two key players in the sixth game of the season in running back Rhamondre Stevenson and defensive end Ronnie Perkins who were both suspended for the first three games. Perkins has tallied four sacks in four games with a pressure rate per pass rush of 16% (for comparison's sake, Chase Young had an 18% clip last year with Ohio State). Stevenson has rushed for 557 yards in four games with six touchdowns and a 6.8 Yards-Per-Carry average. These two players are difference-makers who did not play in the first meeting between these two teams. Oklahoma should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a double-digit win against a conference opponent. Iowa State is just 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least four games in a row. Furthermore, the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while Iowa State outgained the Mountaineers by a 483 to 264 yardage margin, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing no more than 275 yards in their last game. The Cyclones hosted the first encounter between these two teams in Ames — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games played on a neutral field and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral field as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State lost to the Oklahoma State team that got easily defeated against this Sooners team a month later by a 41-13 score in mid-November. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the second half of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a favorite. 10* CFB Oklahoma-Iowa State ABC-TV Special with the Oklahoma Sooners (231) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (232). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (251) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (252) in the Pac-12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Oregon (3-2) has lost two straight games entering this game after their 21-17 upset loss at California as a 9-point favorite on December 5th. USC (5-0) remained unbeaten last Saturday with their 43-38 win at UCLA as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: Oregon was placed into this game on Monday when the COVID outbreak in the Washington program forced them to pull out of that game. The Ducks thought they were going to be given the chance to earn the opportunity to play in this game with a showdown with the Huskies their scheduled game last week — but that game was canceled given the COVID issues in the Washington program. That game offered Oregon the chance to redeem themselves from suffering two straight upset losses at Oregon State and then at California two weeks ago. While the circumstances are less than ideal, this game does offer the Ducks the opportunity to salvage their season. Expectations were high for this group with 12 starters back from the team that finished 12-2 after winning both the Pac-12 Championship Game and then the Rose Bowl with a victory against Wisconsin. Oregon has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a bye week. And while the Ducks have not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least three straight games. Oregon outgained the Golden Bears in their last game by +97 net yards but red zone problems and a -2 net turnover margin held the Ducks back. Regression was expected for this team in the turnover department this season after they enjoyed a +16 net turnover margin last year. However, the Regression Gods may have overcorrected with Oregon ranking 123rd in the nation with a -1.40 net turnover margin per game. The Ducks are averaging 34.2 PPG which is 27th in the FBS — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. Oregon has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. They also have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 road games with the total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Furthermore, the Ducks have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games on the road as an underdog of 3 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 48 of their last 72 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. USC was very fortunate to escape last week’s game with a victory as they were outgained by UCLA by -105 net yards. Over their last three games, the Trojans are being beaten in the yardage battle by -19.6 net YPG. The Bruins exposed a soft USC defense last week by amassing 549 total yards. The Trojans generated 364 of those yards allowed were in the air — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. USC has also failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after allowing at least 42 points in their last contest. Sophomore Kedon Slovis did complete 30 of 47 passes for 344 yards last week but the Trojans are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 8 games in December, USC has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games. The Trojans have been benefited from a +7 net turnover margin this season — so the Regression Gods can kill two birds with one stone tonight with some bounces that go the Ducks' way.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon will have plenty of confidence in this game as they crushed USC last season by a 56-24 score on the Trojans’ home field with a packed stadium. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with USC. Don’t be surprised if they pull the upset — but (always!) take the insurance with the points. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Year with the Oregon Ducks (251) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ball State Cardinals (197) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (198) in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Ball State (5-1) has won five games in a row with their 30-27 upset win over Western Michigan last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. Buffalo (5-0) remained unbeaten this season last week with their 56-7 win over Akron as a 33-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Ford Field in Detroit.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Ball State will have plenty of momentum and confidence entering this game. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a win by 3 points or less. Additionally, Ball State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. This is a team that returned 14 starters from a group that finished 4-4 in MAC play last year despite outgaining their opponents by +31 net YPG. Six of their returning players were all-conference. They have a dynamic quarterback back in senior Drew Plitt who leads a passing attack that is 23rd in the nation Passing Success Rate and 24th in the nation with an 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He leads an offense that scores 34.3 PPG while averaging 481.3 YPG in their three road games. The Cardinals did give up 491 yards last week but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, Ball State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning their last game by at least 28 points. And while the Bulls raced out to a 35-0 halftime lead last week against the Zips, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after owning a halftime lead of at least 24 points in their last game. Buffalo dominated Akron with a +302 net yardage edge — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. The Bulls’ numbers are a bit skewed by playing only five games with two of them against the woeful Akron and Bowling Green teams. They have played only one game against a team in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s top 100 in SP+ offense — and that Kent State team scored 41 points against them. The Buffalo defense ranks 75th in the nation in Expected Points Allowed per pass attempt and 83rd in the nation in Explosive Plays allowed. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: The underdog has covered the point spread in 5 straight games between these two teams. 10* CFB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Ball State Cardinals (197) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (198). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (207) and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (208). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (2-5) looks to bounce back from their 24-17 upset loss at home to Minnesota last Saturday as a 9-point favorite. Rutgers (3-5) looks to build off their 27-24 upset win in overtime at Maryland last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cornhuskers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Nebraska has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. This Cornhuskers’ offense averages only 22.4 PPG. They managed just 308 total yards against a Golden Gophers’ defense that has struggled this season. Their defense has played better as the season has moved on — they have held their last three opponents to just 25.7 PPG along with 347.0 total YPG which are much better numbers than the 30.6 PPG and 405.7 total YPG they have allowed for the season. They go back on the road where they have played 5 straight Unders. Nebraska has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total as a favorite. Rutgers has played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after an upset win — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home after an upset win as an underdog. The Scarlet Knights have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Rutgers rushed for 224 yards last week in the victory — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. And while the Cornhuskers surrendered 206 yards on the ground last week, Nebraska has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Scarlet Knights have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: It will be cold in New Jersey tonight with the temperatures starting in the low-30s. Expect a quick game tonight with plenty of rushing plays. 25* CFB Big Ten Total of the Year within the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (207) and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (208). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (195) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (196) in the Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: UAB (5-3) snapped their two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 21-16 win over Rice as a 7-point favorite. Marshall (7-1) was embarrassed the previous week against that same Owls team on December 5th in a 20-0 upset loss as a 24.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: UAB has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road after a win against a conference rival. And while the Blazers have not covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games. They are also 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a point spread loss. And while that game finished Under the 42 point total, UAB has then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. This team has played only once since Halloween — but this time off afforded them to get healthy again. Junior quarterback Tyler Johnston returned last week in that game against the Owls. The Blazers did lose senior wide receiver Austin Watkins who decided to opt-out the rest of the season. But UAB has depth at wide receiver and two pass-receiving tight ends to pick up the slack. This is a veteran team that has played in the Conference USA Championship Game in two straight seasons — and eighteen starters returned in the fall from the group that lost to Florida Atlantic last year. This team was just a couple of good bounces away from being 7-1 entering this game. They also have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games in expected low-scoring games with the total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. What happened to Marshall two weeks ago in their shocking shutout loss? For starters, their redshirt freshman quarterback, Grant Wells, threw five interceptions. This team has also been hit with injuries, particularly on their offensive line. This team may have peaked too soon for 11th-year head coach Doc Holliday. The Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. And while that game flew Under the 42 point total, Marshall has then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Thundering Herd do get to host this game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Coming off a shutout loss, a big Marshall bounce-back is certainly possible. This is why I look closely at team trends in an attempt to ascertain if there is a team personality or culture under a head coach that helps assess how a group will respond to specific circumstances. We have plenty of data to assess Holiday’s teams at Marshall. The Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games at home when favored. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB UAB-Marshall CBS Sports Network Special with the UAB Blazers (195) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (196). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (438) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (437). THE SITUATION: UCLA (3-2)looks to build off their 25-18 upset win at Arizona State last Saturday as a 3-point underdog. USC (4-0) remained undefeated last Sunday with their 38-13 win at home against Washington State as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: This appears to be a much improved team in Chip Kelly’s third year with the program at UCLA. They are outscoring their opponents by +7.8 Points-Per-Game — and they are outgaining these opponents by +57.3 net Yards-Per-Game. The Bruins’ two losses to Colorado and Oregon were by just nine combined points. UCLA has the opportunity to play the role of spoiler against their crosstown rivals — and they are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win while also 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread victory. They return home where are 2-0 this season with an average winning margin of +20.5 net PPG. The Bruins are averaging 228 rushing YPG which is 16th best in the nation. They have also not allowed more than 18 points in three of their last four games. A good running game along with strong defense is a good recipe to pull the upset. UCLA is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home as an underdog. USC is just 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Trojans have looked good in their last two games against Washington State and Washington — but they were shaky in their first two games. They needed to score two touchdowns in the final three minutes to get past Arizona State in their opening game — and then they only beat a terrible Arizona team by four points. The Wildcats have lost twelve straight games after their humiliating loss to the Sun Devils last night and the only time they stayed within single digits was against this Trojans team. USC has benefited from a +1.5 net turnover margin per game which is the second-best mark in the nation. The Trojans could not muster any semblances of a rushing attack last week against Washington State as they managed only five rushing yards. Quarterback Kedon Slovis did complete 25 of 32 passes for 287 yards with five touchdown passes last week but USC is just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Trojans are just 16-35-2 ATS in their last 53 games on the road — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when favored on the road. Head coach Clay Helton’s team has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The home team has fared well recently in this series as the home team has covered the point spread in 12 of the last 17 meetings between these two teams. USC has not covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the Rose Bowl playing at UCLA. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the UCLA Bruins (438) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (437). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (133) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (134). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (5-3) has won two games in a row with their 42-31 win at North Texas back on December 3rd as a 1-point favorite. TCU (5-4) comes off a 29-22 upset win against Oklahoma State last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: That was an impressive victory for Louisiana Tech last week as they had not played since Halloween given COVID issues. The Bulldogs held a Mean Green offense that averages 518.0 Yards-Per-Game to just 386 total yards. Head coach Skip Holtz is underrated — and his teams tend to improve as the season moves forward. Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win. His teams have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with eighth days of rest. Now this team stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games with the total set in the 49.5 to 52 point range. Furthermore, Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside Conference USA — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in December. TCU may be due for an emotional letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home over a Big 12 rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a point spread win. TCU turned the ball over five times in the win but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after turning the ball over at least three times in their last game. The Horned Frogs stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games. And getting fired up to play a Group of Five teams may be an issue as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams from Conference USA.

FINAL TAKE: TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 26 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (133) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (257) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Colorado Buffaloes (258). THE SITUATION: Utah (1-2) won their first game of the season last Saturday with their 30-24 win over Oregon State as a 14-point favorite. Colorado (4-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 24-13 win at Arizona as a 9.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Utah has been a consistent program under head coach Kyle Whittingham — and they have the opportunity to play spoiler for the Buffaloes Pac-12 Conference championship game aspirations. The Utes have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a win against a Pac-12 opponent. And while Utah did not commit a turnover last week, they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road after not committing a turnover in their last game. The Utes also rushed for 229 yards against the Beavers — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Utah has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Colorado has covered the point spread in all four of their last games this season including their last two as the favorite. But the Buffaloes have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in two straight games as the favorite. Colorado defeated a terrible Wildcats team (that has now lost twelve straight games while only one time staying within single digits) despite committing three turnovers. The Buffaloes have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after turning the ball over at least three times in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado has benefited from a soft schedule — the Utes will be the best team they played in this abbreviated season. The Buffaloes also have the pressure of needing to win this game to stay alive to play in the Pac-12 championship game pending the results of USC later tonight. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December. 10* CFB Utah-Colorado Fox-TV Special with the Utah Utes (257) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Colorado Buffaloes (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (114) minus the point(s) versus Wake Forest (113). THE SITUATION: Louisville (3-7) looks to bounce-back from a 34-27 loss at Boston College back on November 28th as a 1-point underdog. Wake Forest (4-3) takes the field again for the first time since November 14th when their four-game winning streak was snapped in a 59-53 loss at North Carolina as a 13-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS MINUS THE POINTS: Louisville lost to the Eagles despite outgaining them by +58 net yards. The Cardinals are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as a favorite. Despite their losing record, Louisville is outgaining their opponents by +72.2 net Yards-Per-Game this season. Wake Forest is being outgained by -10.0 net YPG this year due to their defense that is allowing 457.4 net YPG. The Demon Deacons surrendered a whopping 742 yards in their last game to the Tar Heels — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 525 yards in their last contest. Quarterback Sam Hartman did complete 29 of his 45 passes for 428 yards with four touchdown passes in a losing effort — but Wake Forest has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Demon Deacons have only committed one turnover in their seven games this season — but they have then failed to cover the 9 of their last 12 games after not committing more than one turnover in at least five straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Louisville Cardinals (114) minus the point(s) versus Wake Forest (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (377) and the Arizona Wildcats (378). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (0-2) looks to bounce back from a 25-18 upset loss to UCLA as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Arizona (0-4) has lost eleven games in a row going back to last season after their 24-13 loss at home to Colorado as a 9.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Sun Devils have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Arizona State has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Sun Devils were flat last week after not playing for three weeks given COVID issues. They started slowly with just a field goal in the first half before getting their offense going in the second half. Behind sophomore quarterback Jaylen Daniels, Arizona State did generate 442 yards of offense. Now the Sun Devils go back on the road where they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, Arizona State has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Wildcats were without sophomore quarterback Grant Gunnell who was injured on the first snap of their game with UCLA two games ago — but the word this afternoon from at least one Arizona beat writer is that he will return to the field tonight for this rivalry game. The Wildcats did gain 422 yards against the Buffaloes but struggled in the red zone. Arizona got 268 of those yards on the ground — and they have played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Even if Gunnell does not play and head coach Kevin Sumlin calls on freshman Will Plummer to be his quarterback tonight, the Wildcats should have success against this depleted Sun Devils’ secondary that is 118th in the nation by allowing 286.5 passing YPG. Arizona State lost safety Aashari Crosswell for the season when he decided to opt-out to prepare for the NFL (after being suspended by the team to start the season). Arizona stays at home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record overall. The Wildcats have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Kevin Sumlin’s seat is red hot when it comes to his future with the Arizona program. This is a must-win for him — so expect him to pull out all the stops in being aggressive. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Over the Total. 25* CFB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (377) and the Arizona Wildcats (378). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Florida Atlantic Owls (375) minus the points versus the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (376). THE SITUATION: Florida Atlantic (5-2) looks to bounce back from a 20-3 loss at Georgia Southern last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. Southern Mississippi (2-7) returns to action to play their final game of the season after the last playing on November 21st where they lost to UTSA by a 23-20 score as a 9-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS MINUS THE POINTS: FAU still has plenty to play for — they need to win this game while hoping that Marshall loses tomorrow to win the Conference USA East Division and play in the Conference USA Championship Game. The Owls have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. FAU has also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Owls are playing outstanding defense in the first year under head coach Willie Taggart. They rank 3rd in the FBS by allowing only 12.4 PPG while also ranking 6th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 300.6 Yards-Per-Game. Defense travels — FAU has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road while also covering the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored. Southern Miss has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. This team may not have much to play for at this point. They hired a new head coach in Will Hall after Jay Hopson resigned in September. The Tulane offensive coordinator takes over next season with Scotty Walden still serving as the interim head coach. The Golden Eagles are also down to their third-string quarterback after senior Jack Abraham entered the transfer portal and then Tate Whatley suffered a shoulder injury in their game against the Roadrunners. As it is, Southern Miss has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: FAU has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a Thursday — and the Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a Thursday. 10* CFB FAU-Southern Miss CBS Sports Network Special with the Florida Atlantic Owls (375) minus the points versus the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (376). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (444) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (443). THE SITUATION: Duke (2-7) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 56-33 upset loss at Georgia Tech as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Miami (7-1) takes the field again after last playing on November 14th when they upset Virginia Tech on the road by a 25-24 score as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: The Hurricanes have been hit by COVID which contributed to their last two games being canceled. Practices have been disrupted and it remains unclear what players will or will not be available for this game. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not playing for at least two weeks. And while the Hurricanes have won four games in a row, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning at least two games in a row. Miami is eking out close games — their last three victories have been by nine combined points despite being a double-digit favorite in two of those games. The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games as a favorite laying at least 14 points against FBS foes. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road as a favorite. Duke has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing at least two games in a row. Quarterback Chase Brice completed only 19 of 40 passes against the Yellow Jackets but he did generate 273 passing yards with two touchdown passes — and the Blue Devils are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Duke is scoring 36.7 PPG — they should keep up with this Miami who has allowed their last three opponents to score 35.3 PPG and 459.5 Yards-Per-Game. The Blue Devils return home where they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They are also 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Duke will be confident in this game as they have pulled the upset against the Hurricanes in each of the last two seasons. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 5 straight games in December under head coach David Cutcliffe — and the Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games in December. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Duke Blue Devils (444) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (443). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (402) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (401). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 17-7 upset loss at Northwestern two weeks ago as a 7-point favorite. Indiana (5-1) looks to build off their 27-11 win over Maryland as an 11.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin did not play last week after their game was canceled because of COVID issues. The extra week to rest and prepare should help the Badgers as they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a bye week. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Wisconsin defense is playing well as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. And while they held the Wildcats to just 263 yards, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing at least 275 yards in their last game. They return home to Madison where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite in their last game. They lost their dynamic dual-threat quarterback, Michael Penix, for the season last week to a torn ACL. Sophomore Jack Tuttle takes over under center — the Utah transfer is highly-regarded but he will not run the yardage that Penix did in this offense. The Hoosiers outrushed the Terrapins by +185 net yards last week but they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +125 yards.

FINAL TAKE: Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in their last 4 games in Madison against the Badgers. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Wisconsin Badgers (402) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (401). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (412) plus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (411). THE SITUATION: Auburn (5-3) looks to rebound from their 42-13 loss at Alabama last Saturday as a 25.5-point underdog. Texas A&M (6-1) has won five games in a row with their 20-7 win over LSU last week as a 16-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Auburn should pick themselves off the mat after getting thrashed by their in-state rival in the Iron Bowl. The Tigers have bounced back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. They return home where they are a perfect 4-0 with an average winning margin of +17.0 PPG. Auburn has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home. And while they had covered the point spread in their previous three games before getting blown out by the Crimson Tide, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. It is not often that this program is getting the points at home — they have only been a home dog six times since 2016. Auburn has covered the point spread in 5 of those 6 games with four outright upset victories — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games when getting the points. Furthermore, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in December. Texas A&M managed only 267 yards against LSU last week despite having the football for 33:32 minutes. The Aggies averaged a mere 3.76 Yards-Per-Play in that game. Texas A&M has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to gain more than 275 yards in their last contest. With their 6-1 record, the Aggies are in the college football playoff hunt — especially with Ohio State at risk of not playing a minimum of five Big Ten games to qualify for the Big Ten Championship Game (although the conference will change their rules to give the Buckeyes eligibility for that game, if necessary). But the pressure could be too much for this Texas A&M team that only beat Vanderbilt by 5 points earlier this season. The Aggies did flex their muscles on defense by holding the Tigers to just 267 yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Now Texas A&M goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games with the total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: Texas A&M has only covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Auburn to play the Tigers. Expect a close game. 25* CFB SEC Underdog of the Year with the Auburn Tigers (412) plus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (411). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (393) minus the point(s) versus the TCU Horned Frogs (394). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (6-2) has won two of their last three games after their 50-44 win over Texas Tech last Saturday as a 12-point favorite. TCU (4-4) has won three of their last four contests with their 59-23 victory at Kansas last week as a 23-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINT(S): Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Oklahoma State offense got cranking by generating 539 yards of offense in the win. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 44 games after scoring at least 50 points in their last game. And while Oklahoma State has allowed at least 17 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after allowing at least 17 points in the first half of two straight contests. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games in December. TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Horned Frogs’ blowout over the Jayhawks was helped by two defensive touchdowns along with a 37-yard punt return for a TD. Yet starting quarterback Max Duggan competed only 3 of 11 passes for a mere 96 yards which is not going to get it done against this Cowboys team. The Horned Frogs return home where they are just 1-3 this season while failing to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games. TCU has been hit hard by COVID with at least 30 players being infected at one point. And while head coach Gary Patterson’s team would love to play spoiler against this Oklahoma State team with Big 12 Championship Game aspirations, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma State has thrived in expected close games under head coach Mike Gundy. The Cowboys have won ten of their last twelve games when listed in the +/- 3-point range while going 8-2-2 ATS in those contests. 10* CFB Oklahoma State-TCU ESPN2 Special with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (393) minus the point(s) versus the TCU Horned Frogs (394). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (327) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (328). THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (8-1) has won five straight games after their 70-20 blowout victory at UL-Monroe as a 28.5-point favorite last Saturday. Appalachian State (7-2) looks to build off their 47-10 win over Troy as a 14-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: UL-Lafayette has had this game circled all year after losing to Appalachian State for the second straight year in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game last season — and that loss was the fourth setback to the Mountaineers in the last two seasons after they also dropped the regular-season matchup between these two teams. The Ragin’ Cajuns have already punched their ticket to play in the conference championship for the third straight time in a row with the opportunity to avenge their only loss this season with a date against Coastal Carolina — but defeating this Appalachian State team remains a very high priority for head coach Billy Napier and the fourteen starters back from last season. UL-Lafayette should build off their momentum from last week as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 20 points. And while they generated 511 yards last week against the War Hawks, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. UL-Lafayette is averaging 5.8 Yards-Per-Carry which is 6th in the nation — and they have outrushed their last two opponents by at least +131 net rushing yards. The Ragin’ Cajuns have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after outrushing their last two opponents by at least +125 net rushing yards. This team is undefeated on the road with a 5-0 mark — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. UL-Lafayette has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games with the total set in the 49.5 to 52 point range. And in their last 11 games on the road as an underdog, the Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win at home by at least four touchdowns. Furthermore, while the Mountaineers enjoyed a 34-10 halftime lead last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after leading by at least 24 points at halftime of their last game. Appalachian State rushed for 275 yards last week which helped to fuel their 554 total yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Mountaineers have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. The scoring punch has been down this season for this team as their 32.8 PPG scoring average is -6.0 PPG below what they tallied last year even though eight starters are back from that unit. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 52 point range. And in their last 9 games as a favorite, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread 7 times.

FINAL TAKE: I waited to get the weather update today for Boone, North Carolina, because I would be less enthusiastic about the Ragin’ Cajuns if the temperature dropped below 32 degrees with rain expected. The weather reports call for temperatures in the 40s during the game with the wind not much of a factor — and that should help the UL-Lafayette passing game. The Mountaineers have a new head coach this year in Shawn Clark who was an assistant to the Scott Satterfield and Eliah Drinkwater coached-teams of the previous two seasons that have dominated the Ragin’ Cajuns. The motivational edge for UL-Lafayette should make the difference tonight. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Year with the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (327) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (328). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (323) and the North Texas Mean Green (324). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (4-3) returns to action for the first time since October 31st when they upset UAB in double-overtime by a 37-34 score as a 12-point underdog. North Texas (3-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 49-17 loss at UTSA as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread win. This Louisiana Tech offense averages only 334.4 total YPG which is 110th in the nation. They are only averaging 2.4 Yards-Per-Carry which is third-to-last in the FBS. They managed only 49 rushing yards last week — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 75 yards in their last game. This is not a big play offense as they are only averaging 6.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in their passing game which is 103rd in the nation. And the Bulldogs are converting in only 38.7% of their third downs which is tied for 87th in the nation. They go back on the road where they are averaging only 23.7 PPG along with 313.7 YPG which is -6.6 PPG and -20.7 net YPG below their season averages. Louisiana Tech has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total as an underdog. They also have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road after the first month of the season. And they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in December under head coach Skip Holtz. North Texas has played 9 straight games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while their game with UTSA finished just below the 68 point total, they have then played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game that finished Under the Total. The Mean Green has played two straight Unders with their previous 27-17 win over Rice finished well below the 65 total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. North Texas did allow a whopping 624 yards against the Roadrunners last week — but the Under is 16-6-1 in their last 23 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Mean Green have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Despite the bad defenses in this game, the value is with the Under given a total that is in the mid-60s. 10* CFB Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (323) and the North Texas Mean Green (324). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (297) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (298). THE SITUATION: Utah (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 31-17 upset loss at home to USC last week as a 1-point favorite. Washington (2-0) comes off a 44-27 win against Arizona last week as a 12-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES PLUS THE POINTS: That was just the first game of the season for head coach Kyle Whittingham with his team with COVID issues causing the cancellation of their games with Arizona and UCLA — and this game was rescheduled earlier this week after Arizona State had an outbreak. Look for this team to be much improved this week with a week of practice that can focus on the mistakes from last week — the proverbial coaching jump from Game One to Game Two. Whittingham returned an inexperienced team that has just nine starters back from the group that finished 11-3 last season. Whittingham tapped redshirt sophomore Cameron Rising as his quarterback — but the Texas transfer lasted about a quarter last week before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. Whittingham now turns to another transfer in Jake Bentley who came over in the offseason from South Carolina. He will benefit from the week of practice with the first unit along with a game-plan more tailored to his skill set. The defense should play better as well with nine new starters — they allowed the Trojans to gain 357 yards which was not a bad effort against that powerful offensive group. It was five turnovers and a -3 net turnover margin that hurt the Utes last week. They did hold USC to just 93 rushing yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. Utah is dangerous as an underdog as they are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a road dog. They have also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 games when getting 3.5 to 10 points. And in their last 31 road games against teams with a winning record at home, Utah has covered the point spread in 21 of these games. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win at home against a Pac-12 opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread victory. The Huskies have 12 starters back the team that finished 8-5 last season. But Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. They host this game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Huskies went from their expected rivalry game with Washington State in the Apple Cup to their most difficult opponent so far this season midweek with the Utes given the scheduling change. The Utah defense should keep this a close game. 10* CFB Utah-Washington ABC-TV Special with the Utah Utes (297) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (298). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (242) minus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (241). THE SITUATION: Ole Miss (3-4) has won two straight games with their 59-42 victory over South Carolina as a 12.5-point favorite two weeks ago on November 14th. Mississippi State (2-5) looks to rebound from their 31-24 loss at Georgia last Saturday as a 26.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS MINUS THE POINTS: Mississippi should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a victory. Quarterback Matt Corral completed 28 of 32 passes for 513 yards with four touchdown passes in the victory. Head coach Lane Kiffin can coach offense. This Rebels team is 11th in the FBS by averaging 6.9 Yards-Per-Play — and they rank 4th in the nation by averaging 10.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. They put up 42 points against Alabama — and they are averaging 42.5 PPG along with 603.0 total YPG when playing at home. Ole Miss did surrender 548 yards to the Gamecocks two weeks ago — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Rebels have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. Mississippi State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. It will be difficult for the Bulldogs to keep up with the Ole Miss offense even under first-year head coach Mike Leach. Mississippi State has failed to score more than 14 points in four of their seven games. The Bulldogs stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games against teams with a losing record at home (Ole Miss is 1-3 at home). Mississippi State has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Rebels will have revenge on their minds as well after losing last year’s Egg Bowl by a 21-20 score at Mississippi State. 20* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Mississippi Rebels (242) minus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (241). Best of luck for us — Frank.