40*

North Texas +18

20*

Louisville -19.5

Play this at anything less than -21. Louisville escaped a scare from Duke last Friday and I believe this will serve as a wake up call. This game could be key for Louisville in the polls. Clemson should have lost to NC State last week, but college kickers are college kickers. Most people will look at this game and say "Clemson beat Louisville and NC State almost beat Clemson, so NC State could beat Louisville. I don't think so. If Louisville can blow the doors off of NC State, their stock will clearly rise. NC State is now playing back to back road games at Clemson and at Louisville. That's as tough as it gets, for a scheduling stand point, in the game. Louisville has the type of offense to win by 40+. If NC State gets down early, this could get really ugly.

20*

Iowa +4

4* NFL BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK

Green Bay Packers -4

The Dallas Cowboys had their huge statement game last week against the Bengals. Dallas is a solid football team but now is the time to sell them this week. Their stock is high as ever right now and this line is too low. Let's not forget that the Cowboys have failed to covered the spread in 6 straight games facing a team with a winning record.

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are close to unstoppable at home. A big reason is that rush defense. They haven't allowed more than 50 yards in a game, are allowing only 1.99 yards a carry, and have allowed just 171 yards through 4 games. That's insanely good. This is going to force the Cowboys to throw the ball and this is where Dak could finally make a mistake. Dez Bryant being absent is going to have a noticeable effect here.

A little inside info for you guys (that hasn't been really covered on sports media outlets) is that Lambeau Field plays different than most fields. They have a special type of grass there which makes it difficult to jump off the line of scrimmage and get your footing. This make a WORLD of difference for defensive lineman. That half second jump time is the difference between a sack and a deep TD to Jordy Nelson. There's a reason Rodgers is superhuman at home and is very tough to sack.

5* NFL UNDERDOG OF THE YEAR

Kansas City Chiefs +1.5

Andy Reid off the bye week. He is 15-2 straight up and 12-5 against the spread. It's also a GREAT situational bet to back a team that goes into the bye week off an ugly loss. The last thing everyone remembers about the KC Chiefs is that embarrassing beatdown against the Steelers in primetime. KC has now had two weeks to stew over that defeat and prepare for the Raiders. They should come out focused and fired up.

Oakland is over-valued now. They have been fortunate to win some of these games and definitely should have lost last week against the Chargers, but the Chargers did what they always do, and shot themselves in the foot. Oakland is known for choking when they are supposed to win. This team has been as bad as it gets as the favorite. The Raiders are 7-23 ATS laying points and are 35-68 ATS at home.

4* CFB VEGAS INSIDER

Northern Illinois +2.5

Sources love the home dog here. Huge money has made this game drop from the key number of 3. CMU is 4-2 and Northern Illinois is 1-5 but this game is lined basically at pick? Nothern Illinois has had CMU's number, covering 7 of the last 9 meetings. 

4* 

San Diego Chargers +3.5

The Oakland Raiders are known for choking when they are expected to win. This team has been awful as a favorite. They are 7-22 ATS laying points and are 35-67 ATS at home. The underdog has covered in 12 of the last 14 meetings between these two. If San Diego didn't fall apart in the 4th quarter, the Chargers would be undefeated. I know that's a lot of "shoulda, coulda, woulda" but it shows that this team is better than their 1-3 record and certainly should not be over FG underdogs.  

5* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH

Baltimore Ravens -3.5

LOVE the Ravens to bounce back after their first loss of the season. Baltimore should own this Redskins defense. The Skins have a Bottom 3 defense. It is just awful. Washington is the WORST team on 3rd down this year, giving up nearly 9 yards a play. The Ravens are the 2nd BEST. More often than not, Football really comes down to two things; How you perform on 3rd down and turnovers. Well, the Redskins can't stop anyone on 3rd down, where the Ravens are getting off the field and Kirk Cousins is one of the most turnover prone QBs in the game. 

2*

Chicago Bears +5

This situation is AWFUL for the Colts. I can't believe the NFL didn't give Indy a week off after their London trip. The Bears clearly are responding better with Hoyer than Cutler. Chicago is a better team without Cutler and power ratings/the line hasn't been adjusted for that yet. Even though this is a road game for the Bears, they basically are going to their backyard where the Colts have to travel halfway across the globe. I'm expecting the public to hit Indy hard Sunday and this will be one of the games where they get buried.

3*

New England Patriots -10

There are two ways you could look at this game. 1: Brady will be rusty or 2: Brady will play with a huge chip on his shoulder. Honestly, I am expecting a bit of both. Yes, he may come out rusty, but this is the Cleveland Browns defense..not the Seattle D. He should settle in fine after the 1st quarter. If New England was still undefeated on the season and beat the Bills last week, than Cleveland may have been the right side. However, they are coming off an EMBARRASSING loss to their hated rivals. Not only was it a loss, it was a shut out at home. It's not often the Patriots lose by 14+ points but when they do, they cover their next game. They have covered the number 4 of the last 5 times. This has the makings of an annihilation. If this offense is clicking and Tom Brady is making his throws, New England should win this game by 2 TDs easily.

2*

California -13.5

4*

Idaho +5

3*

Kentucky -3

2*

Texas A&M -7

2*

North Carolina State -2.5

2*

Cincinnati -2.5

3*

Baltimore Ravens -3

The Ravens are flying completely under the radar right now. No one is talking about this team and they have quietly gone 3-0 to start this season. In my opinion, Harbaugh is the 2nd best coach in the league, behind Belichick. Coaching is so important in the NFL. Looking at their roster, the talent doesn't really pop out at you, but they make plays when it matters most and they are well disciplined. 

The Raiders are in a horrible scheduling spot. This is now their 3rd road game to start the season and back-to-back trips to the East Coast. The Oakland Raiders are 1-18 straight up in the Eastern Time Zone. Oakland has also been an awful bet coming off a SU + ATS win. They are 6-16 ATS following a win and have lost 5 straight meetings, against the number, in Baltimore. 

3*

Carolina Panthers -3

The Carolina Panthers have always been a terrific bet coming off a loss. (I do give them a pass for last week with all those distractions going on in Charlotte. The best thing for this team is to go on the road and get away from all of that mayhem.) We were on them in Week 2 as they destroyed the 49ers after their Week 1 loss to Denver. They are sitting at 1-2 on the season but both their losses came to terrific defenses. That's how you beat this Panthers team by getting pressure on Cam Newton. The Atlanta Falcons can't do that. They have the "swiss cheese" defense. Don't think for a second that the Panthers have forgotten these Falcons ruined their perfect season last year. 

The Falcons are another one of those teams that are money burners for backers. They are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games and have covered the spread just once in their last 7 home games. They are playing on the short week, coming off Monday Night Football, where their offense was on fire. Atlanta's offense looked like world beaters against New Orleans. They also looked great against Oakland. Those two defenses are the worst in the league. I believe this has given us line value here because of the Falcons offense being overrated. This Carolina defense is world's above those two teams. 

3*

Cleveland Browns +8.5

Was REALLY hoping we would get +10 here. I wouldn't be shocked if this game went there Sunday. However, anything at 7.5 or above is a great bet, but 10+ would be a 5% play.

I have said this before, I am a Washington Redskins fan. I follow this team very closely. I truly believe this team should NEVER be favored, by over a touchdown, to ANYONE. There's one thing that the Redskins have always done. They play to the level of their opponent. Just look at this trend...The Redskins are 8-26 ATS at home facing a team with a losing record. This team does not have an ounce of a home field advantage. Fed Ex Field looks like a condemned building with all seats Dan Snyder has removed. 

The Cleveland Browns are still the Cleveland Browns. They are 0-3 but look closely at their games. The lost Week 1 to the Eagles, who now look like one of the best teams in the NFC. In Week 2, they jumped out to a 20-0 lead to the Ravens and in Week 3, they clearly should have earned a victory against the Dolphins. I usually don't like these trends but I believe this stat does provide some insight for this game. The Browns have covered 9 of their last 10 Week 4 games. I say this because we all know the Browns have been bad for a long time and they always start off the season slowly. People line up at the window by Week 4 to make some "easy money" against the Browns but they end up sneaking up on teams and getting the cover.

Kirk Cousins is still a turnover prone QB and the Skins defense is injured with a lot of holes. I do expect a lot of points to be scored in this game and the back door cover will always be open when the Washington Redskins are the favorite.

5* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Houston Texans -4

This line has dropped too much now and its time to strike. This opener was 7 and then the news came out about JJ Watt and it started to fall. We know JJ Watt is one of, if not, the best defensive players in the league. However, he isn't worth 3 points. He is worth 1 point MAX. He is a beast at the line of scrimmage but he isn't a QB or even a middle linebacker (who quarterbacks the defense.) Furthermore, I love backing teams when their star player is out. This works exceptionally well in the NBA also. It gives the players that extra motivation and they rally around eachother to pick up the slack. 

Everyone's last memory of the Texans is that awful performance they gave against the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football. Knee jerk reaction is that this team is terrible because they couldn't beat a 3rd string QB. The Texans have had 10 days to stew on that loss and it's usually a great bet to back a team off of their worst loss of the season. Just look the Rams. They were being called the "Worst team in the NFL" after their 28-0 primetime defeat against San Francisco. The Rams took out the Seattle Seahawks the next week and are now 2-1 on the season.

The Houston Texans have owned the Tennessee Titans and they have done it without a stud QB. Houston has covered 5 straight against Tennessee. They also are 20-8 ATS after scoring 2 TDs or less in their previous game. As for the Titans, this team has been the worst bet for several years now. In the past 3 and a half years, the Titans have covered the spread only 14 times. The are also just 3-21-3 in the AFC South division. 

3*

Boise State -21

3*

Navy +7.5

2*

Florida State -10.5

2*

North Carolina State -11

2*

Virginia +3.5

2*

Washington -3

5* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR

Pittsburgh Steelers -3

PLEASE READ:

There are two ways to attack this game. If you can't get the 3, buy the hook. Also recommend parlaying Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline with Miami Dolphins moneyline.

I have the Steelers as the 2nd best team in the NFL right now, behind the Patriots. This offense is the real deal and their defense has been stifling the first two weeks. One of my simple rules in the NFL is who has the better QB and who has the better coach. Well, Pittsburgh has both of them by a landslide. 

The Eagles and Wentz are getting way too much hype right now. I will admit, they did burn us on Monday Night, but I believe that game was lost by Jay Cutler (usually is) than Wentz winning the game. The Eagles only averaged 4 yards a play in that game. That will not get it done. They also benefitted from short fields due to turnovers. Think about who Philly has beaten. They won at home against the worst team in the league (Cleveland) and then beat arguably the 2nd worst team in the league, the Bears.

This is a monumental mismatch in all 3 phases of the game. I even say special teams because the Eagles had a horrific gaff (punting in the middle of the field on max protection) on a punt vs. the Bears that lead to a TD.

Even though this is a home game for the Eagles, the spots favors the Steelers. Pittsburgh played at home last week and going to Philadelphia is right in their back yard, so no travel issues there. The Eagles are playing on the short week, since they played MNF, and the Eagles are 0-5 ATS the following Sunday after playing Monday Night Football.

The Eagles true colors will show this Sunday. If they somehow take this one from the mighty Steelers, then I will be a true believer. However, I am expecting this game to get ugly. Barring turnovers, there isn't ANY reason why the Steelers don't punish the birds.

3*

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5

A situation I LOVE in the NFL is backing a team that just got their butts kicked against a team that just had their best performance of the season. Tampa Bay just got destroyed against the Arizona Cardinals. The Rams beat the Seahawks for their "game of the year" home opener. Let's not over react to the Rams. They are still dreadful. They haven't scored a touchdown in 2 games. Their offense can not move the ball whatsoever. Yes, they did beat the Seahawks, but they just have Seattle's number and it was a HUGE emotional spot for LA. The Rams also have to go all the way across the country for this game. With Tampa Bay looking to bounce back after a beat down and this being their home opener, look for the Bucs to win this game by 7+.

2*

Miami Dolphins -9.5

This is a fantastic 7 point teaser position to Miami -2.5

The Miami Dolphins may be the best 0-2 team in the NFL. This team had to play at arguably the two toughest places in the game, Seattle and New England. They easily were the better team in the Seattle game and they showed a ton of grit almost coming back against the Patriots. This defense is ferocious and Cody Kessler is going to be running for his life in this one.

I watched Cody Kessler in the preseason. He was not impressive. This guy is so unaware that he actually ran out of the back of his own end zone and had zero clue on what he did. Let's face it, the Browns are a dumpster fire. They just lost another WR to injury this week and morale has got to be down after blowing a 20 point lead to the Ravens for their home opener. Miami should dominate in all phases of the game.

2*

Arkansas +6.5

Plain and simple, the Razorbacks have serious revenge on their minds after two straight OT losses at the hands of Texas A&M. Arkansas has been a dynamite money maker in recent years. They have covered the spread in 20 of their last 28 games. Head Coach, Bielema, is 9-3 ATS as a dog which includes winning 6 of those outright. 

2*

Marshall +28

With this hitting 28, we have to strike.

I know you have to be a little off your rocker to bet against the Louisville Cardinals after that dominating performance against Florida State. However, given the situation and the number ballooning to 28, it warrants a play. Everyone loves the Cardinals right now and they look like world beaters. It's one of the oldest rules in the book. Buy low and sell high. 

This is what we call the sandwich spot. For all intents and purposes, this is a metaphorical "foot long hoagie" spot. Louisville comes off playing the #2 ranked Florida State Seminoles at home, where they opened up a can of whoop ass. Just from that stand point, it would be tough not to suffer a letdown. After this Marshall game, The Cardinals have to travel to Clemson and take on the #5 ranked Tigers. It's a mix of a let down and a lookahead here. It's hard to imagine Louisville showing the same intensity against Marshall.

Marshall has been phenomenal at home in recent years. They are 15-2-1 ATS at home facing a team with a winning road record and they have covered 16 of their last 22 home games. Marshall is also 9-0-1 when catching 6 or more points. They have lost only TWICE at home in the last 26 years by more than 25 points. 

5* Big 10 GAME OF THE MONTH

Iowa -13

It's no secret on why we are taking Iowa here. This team just got beat by FCS, North Dakota State, on their home turf. This team HAS to bounce back. Iowa has been stellar on the road, against the number, in recent years. Iowa is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games, which includes a perfect 10-0 as a road favorite. The Hawkeyes still have a monster defense that will make it very difficult for the Rutgers offense to have any success.

I have Rutgers as one of the worst teams in the nation. This team fell behind 21-0 to NEW MEXICO! (I do like an Iowa 1st Half bet also for this game.) The Scarlet Knights have always been the doormat for the stellar Big 10 teams to lay a beat down. I could honestly list all these games but go ahead and look up recent performances of Rutgers against OSU, MSU, PSU, Michigan, etc. They have been DESTROYED! Under 2 touchdowns is cheap here and as long as the Hawkeyes are at least half awake, they cruise.

4* CFB GAME OF THE WEEK

Utah -3

The key here is home field advantage. The home team has won the last 5 meetings against the spread. Also, Utah plays in the altitude which is a big time factor. Visiting college kids always have a tough time adjusting to the thin air and it always shows in the 2nd half. USC has had it's problems in the higher elevation (Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, etc.) and has covered just once in their last 5 games played in the altitude. The Trojans are just 7-20 ATS on the road as well.

USC has had a BRUTAL schedule and it has taken its toll. This team is starting to break down. Add in the fact that this offensive line is struggling and their starting a new QB...this could be a disaster. Utah's defensive front is fierce and ranks #2 in the Nation in sacks. 

I'd also like to add that this team chemistry has go to be shot right now for the Trojans with the reports swirling around a player punching a coach. Can't be good for morale.

2*

New York Mets RL -1.5

I do lean over here as well.

BONUS MLB PLAY: San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 1st FIVE innings.

Dodgers are the worst team in the Majors by a wide margin against LHP. When Bum and Kershaw pitch against each other, they are always on top of their game. I like the FIVE innings play much better as we don't have to worry about those awful bullpens and Kershaw will be limited but surely will go at least 5 if he's in good form.

3*

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7

This is going to be the game that everyone and their mother teases Arizona down, thinking they will bounce back from Week 1. Arizona could or "should" win this game for that matter, but there is always one upset that destroys the publics teasers and I think this one has a great shot at spoiling those tickets. I'd love to see the upset, but we're taking the 7 points here.

I was high on Jameis Winston in the off-season and we backed him Week 1 against the Falcons. Well he lit the Dirty Birds up and I don't want to over-react to one game but this Arizona pass defense looks weak. Winston, Evans, and Jackson could be in for some big numbers. The Buccaneers aren't on people's radars yet and I believe they are under-valued still.

Carson Palmer is starting a downward spiral. I don't think he's going to have that great of a season. He is immobile as it gets. The great thing about getting the 7 points in the NFL, there are always back door, late scores in the 4th. Tampa could be down 10-13 points and Arizona may just hand them a TD late. They win but we'll get the cover and cash our ticket.

We are going to be on the Dolphins if it gets to +7. If you see a +7 pop up, grab it for 3%

4* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK

Carolina Panthers -13.5

From a situational stand point, this is a great spot for the Panthers and a terrible spot for the 49ers. The Panthers come off a tough loss on Thursday Night where the 49ers come off an impressive shutout victory on Monday Night. Immediate knee jerk reaction is that the Panthers might not be as good and that the 49ers are better than we thought. 

San Francisco did this exact thing on Monday Night Football Week 1 of last year, destroying the Vikings, but still ended up being one of the worst teams in the NFL. Well what did the 49ers do in Week 2? They got CRUSHED by the Steelers 43-18. The Steelers were also coming off a loss in Week 1 and played their home opener in Week 2, just like the Panthers do this season. I expect a similar result here. SF played on the short week (since it was MNF) and had to travel to the East Coast. The Panthers have had since Thursday to prepare off their heartbreaking loss and will no doubt want to lay a beat down to SF at home. 

Don't be fooled, the 49ers are still a bad team. If they get down early in this game, Goodnight San Francisco. They don't have the type of offense to scramble from behind, especially against this ferocious defense of the Carolina Panthers.

2*

Cleveland Browns +7

I know this isn't going to be a popular pick. The Cleveland Browns did look down right awful in their Week 1 road loss to the Eagles. However, this is their home opener. I don't care who you are playing, 7 points is a lot in the NFL especially getting them for your first home game of the season. The Browns also get an upgrade at QB. Josh McCown is better than Robert Griffin III. It might sound crazy but remember, I'm a Skins fan. I've seen him plenty over the years and still follow this guy. 

We did cash heavy on the Ravens in Week 1 but we are fading them here. Although they won and covered, the Ravens offense didn't look that great. I wanted to see how the Bills showed in Week 2 before making my decision on this game. Well the Buffalo defense got GASHED. This could be a sign that this Baltimore team may have some problems.

Last year with McCown at QB vs. the Ravens, he pulled out a 3 point OT victory IN Baltimore. The Browns did lose the 2nd meeting on a crazy blocked FG in the final seconds at home. My point is that these were very close games. Not enough to warrant a 7 point spread. Baltimore has covered the spread just once in their last 5 meetings against Cleveland. I will admit, this could be one of those games where the Browns get the crap kicked out of them cause, let's be real, Baltimore is a better team than Cleveland. But my gut tells me that this line is an overreaction and one thing's for certain, divisions games are always tough battles and we'll take the points here. 

5* Ohio State/Oklahoma MAX BET

Oklahoma +1.5

This line is a severe over-reaction. When "Games of the year" lines were posted back in July, the Oklahoma Sooners were touchdown favorites against the Ohio State Buckeyes. After two games into the young season, they are now 1.5/2 point underdogs. This is too big of an adjustment. This line has also made history as this is the first time in 16 years that the Oklahoma Sooners are underdogs at home. That should tell you something. Obviously this line has moved because of the loss they suffered against Houston in Week 1. Houston is a great team however. They also had the advantage of all off-season to prepare for Oklahoma so I will give the Sooners a pass on that one.

I will say this, Saturday's game is the season for the Sooners. If they lose this game, forget the playoffs. Oklahoma will move right back into the post-season picture with a win here. Now, I'm not going to say this game doesn't mean the same for Ohio State, but Ohio State can lose this game and they'll still be alright. If they lose but win out (including beating Michigan) and they'll be in the playoff.

Ohio State did crush Tulsa last week but they looked terrible in the first half. Dane Evans handed them 2 pick six touch downs in the final 5 minutes. The 2nd one was mind-blowing, where he or the coach decided to throw in a monsoon, instead of going into the half down 13-3. Now its 20-3, all their momentum was gone and they quit in the 2nd half. Before Evan's idiocracy, it was 6-3. Ohio State's offense only managed 6 points against Tulsa! Not having a lot of returning starters showed in that ball game for the Buckeyes. 

Bottomline is that this is the Sooners season. The players know it and maybe more importantly, the fans know it. Norman Oklahoma should be live and loud Saturday. Look for Oklahoma to keep their playoff hopes alive.

2* 

Texas State +30.5

Get the 31. There are still plenty of outlets that have 31. However, this play will be graded at 30.5

Arkansas coming off a huge double OT win against TCU and have Texas A&M on deck. This is a big time sandwich spot for Arkansas. Texas State has had a week off after their impressive win as 21 point dogs against a solid Ohio team in Week 1. Texas State is fresh and definitely has an offense that can keep it within this huge number. Even if Arkansas goes up big in this game, they could their foot off the gas because of their long game the previous week and their rivalry game next week, where even the coach has mentioned is one of the biggest games of the year for them.  

3*

Oregon +3

Although Nebraska has covered both games this season, it has been misleading. They played Wyoming and Fresno State. What's alarming is that both games were close at the half. They did pull away in the 2nd half but in Wyoming's case, they were coming off a triple OT in high altitude so no doubt they were tired. For Fresno, they were ultra motivated by the death of their punter and it was an emotional game for them in a great spot. They now have to face an Oregon team that has yet to cover a spread and that has given us value. The difference here is that Oregon blew out teams in the first half and took their foot of the gas where Nebraska had to wake up in the 2nd half.

The speed of Oregon is going to give the Cornhuskers fits. Oregon has also been outstanding when being a road underdog. They have covered 5 straight getting points on the road. In my opinion, the wrong team is favored here and the Ducks should win this game outright.

2*

Syracuse +14.5

Louisville blew the doors off of Syracuse on National TV for all to see. No one wants any part of the Orange. Typically that's when you want to jump on a team. What's odd is that this is the same line (14.5) that UL was laying. Oddsmakers are saying that USF is the same as Louisville, according to that number. I don't think so. The key here is that USF has Florida State on deck at home. I expect an inspired effort from Syracuse and a lookahead from South Florida and over two TDs is too much to lay in that situation.

2*

UNLV +13.5

Personally bought the hook to +14

Simply put, we are fading Central Michigan here after their ridiculous win against Oklahoma State last week. UNLV is much improved from prior years as well.

2*

Virginia +4.5

4* CFB Vegas Insider 

Appalachian State +3.5

2*

Detroit Lions +3.5

The public LOVES the Colts here, expecting a big bounce back from Andrew Luck. Also, the perception is that the Lions are going to be bad with the loss of Calvin Johnson. However, big money is coming in on the dog and has dropped this line 2 points; I expect it to drop even farther. 

Detroit finished the season going 6-2. They very easily could have been 7-1 but they lost on the Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary. This team also made big improvements on the offensive line, which will help Stafford pick apart the Colts. The Lions have had trouble on the road in the past when they play in outdoor venues. This is in the dome, where this up and down offense can excel. The Colts defense has been notoriously bad. They can't defend the run or pass. This line shows that they believe this is the Colts of old and not the actual Colt's team on the field. They are overvalued and have been overvalued in Week 1 in recent years. Indy has covered just once in the last 8 season openers.

2*

Cleveland Indians RL -1.5

5* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Baltimore Ravens -3

This one comes down to 4 major factors. Baltimore has the better QB, the better head coach, they are at home, and are looking to bounce back from one of the worst seasons in franchise history. I think the Ryan brothers are as over-rated as it gets, especially Rob Ryan. The big problem with the Ryan regime is discipline. Rex Ryan's teams have always been highly penalized on the field. You simply cannot afford to make dumb penalties on the road. All it takes is one personal foul or unsportsmanlike conduct penalty to extend a drive that allows the crowd to go berserk and it will give ALL the momentum to the home team.

Everyone is all over Tyrod Taylor this year. Even the TV show "Ballers" talks about how "great" he is at quarterback. I'm not buying it. I think he will regress this season. Let's not forget, Tyrod was on the Ravens for a good portion of his career, so they should know his tendencies pretty well. Bottomline here is that the Bills are still the Bills (the team that seems like they lose on purpose) and the Ravens are the team that are always in the playoff picture. Ravens roll at home.

4* NFL VEGAS INSIDER

Chicago Bears +6

2*

Washington State +11.5

3*

UNLV +26.5

3*

Notre Dame -28

Only reason this wasn't a top play for me is because Notre Dame is playing on the short week against the triple option. However, Nevada isn't very good. They just barely beat the FCS Cal Poly in OT, Week 1. In order for me to lay these kind of points, the team I'm backing needs to be explosive on offense and the Fighting Irish has that. Although they lost to Texas, they did manage to put up 47 points against a very stout Texas defense. This also gives us value because Notre Dame should bounce back, after their week 1 loss, in front of their home fans. Notre Dame needs a huge blowout performance here to raise their stock on the season. You could say they may be looking ahead to MSU on deck. If they managed to win against the Longhorns, they most likely would. But this is a big statement game for the Irish. If they blow the doors off Nevada and then beat the Spartans Week 3, they are right back in the College Football Playoff discussion.

2*

Akron +25

This is a lot of points for the Badgers to lay. This offense isn't the type to run up the score and blow you off the field. It's a conservative, time managing rushing attack. They don't have the up and down the field firepower to blow you out by nearly 4 touchdowns. It's most likely going to take a defensive shutout from Wisconsin to cover this number, because it may take over 40 points from the Badger offense for them to do so.  I believe Akron has enough on offense to put up a couple TDs to stay inside the spread. We also get the added bonus of the possible major letdown from Wisconsin, after their emotional upset with against LSU. Akron has been solid lately against the number, covering 5 of their last 6 on the road.

5* CFB NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH

Tulsa +29

This number is inflated due to the drubbing Ohio State put on Bowling Green last week. We did have the Buckeyes in that one and I knew if they took care of business, we were going to fade them here. Ohio State has a HUGE game on deck against the Oklahoma Sooners. 

I like Tulsa because they can definitely put up some points. They have former Baylor OC calling the plays, so they can score with anyone in the country. 4+ touchdown is a lot to give a team with a high powered offense. The Golden Hurricane has been fantastic against the number as well. They have covered 5 straight non-conference games and are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Look for Tulsa to keep it much closer than expected.

5* CFB UNDERDOG MAX BET

Massachusetts (UMass) +17 

Getting this one out now before it goes lower than 17. Make sure to get the 17.

What makes taking the points so special in this game is the fact that the total is set very low. At post this total was 41, but now has crept down to 39. Points are going to be tough to come by in this game and it's going to take a gigantic effort from an anemic BC offense, in a bad spot, to even score that many, let alone cover these points.

Boston College returns from Dublin without a week off for yet another road/neutral game. Terrible scheduling spot for them to prepare. The NFL finally woke up and gave the teams traveling to London a week off the following week, but not the NCAA. UMass played Florida to a 10-7 score through 3 quarters last week before losing 24-7. Florida is hands down a better team than Boston College and Massachusetts only lost by 17 IN Florida. If that game is any indication, then The Minutemen should easily stay inside this number Saturday.

4* TOP PLAY

Miami Marlins RL +1.5

I also LOVE the UNDER (3.5) 1st FIVE innings here.

This game is almost certain to be low scoring and a 1 run game either way. Taking the +1.5 with a projected low scoring game is the way to go. Kershaw has been known to get ZERO run support.

5* NFL Thursday Night Football MAX BET

Carolina Panthers -3

There's one simple rule for me when handicapping the NFL. Who's got the better QB and who has the better Coach. Well, CLEARLY Carolina has the better QB. The Broncos are in some real trouble at the quarterback position. I know they do have one of, if not, the best defenses in the game. but Carolina's defense is pretty darn good as well. The Denver defense isn't going to matter a whole lot when they're turning the ball over deep in their own territory. Cam Newton gets the monster 6 foot 6 Wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin back for this game. This is going to really open up this already potent attack.

I get the whole story about the Super Bowl hangover and the Super Bowl losers doing terribly ATS, but I believe this year is different. This is the first time the Super Bowl winner will have a change at QB in 15 years. Huge revenge angle here for Carolina. We know the Panthers only had 1 loss last year (besides the Super Bowl) and how did they respond...by covering the spread by 18 points. Rivera has always done well following a loss. This team also dominates when they are listed as the favorite. Since 2013, only the Vikings and the Packers have better winning percentages as a favorite than the Panthers do. Carolina also averages beating those spreads by nearly 5 points a game. 

Bottomline here is that Carolina is going to stack the box and make whoever starts for them (Denver) at QB to beat them through the air. As long as the Panthers don't get bit by the injury or turnover bug in this game, they cruise to a 7+ point victory.

(Still have a couple weeks before the season starts. Make sure to check back before game day to see if there are any added updates.)

**Trevor Siemian is starting at QB. Who knows, this guy could come out and become the next Tom Brady but I highly doubt it. He was awful his senior year at Northwestern. He completed just over 50% of his passes, had 11 INTs, and just 7 TDs. He also averaged just 5 YARDS PER PASSING ATTEMPT! At the end of the day, I realize this might be the "square" or "public" play, but how does a hungry Cam Newton looking to bounce back from his worst performance ever in the Super Bowl, not beat (what I'm calling) "The WORST starting QB for a defending Super Bowl Champion...of ALL TIME"

2*

Penn State -20

Get this before it goes to 21

Kent State was a train wreck last year. They have zero offense. 9 times they were held to less than 15 points and got shut out 3 times. I believe Penn State now has an upgrade at QB. Head Coach Franklin is now here for 3 years. Everything is set in place for him with his own recruits there for his system so it's his time to shine. They return a bunch of starters and it looks like as long as Penn State can score above 30 points, they cover this number.

5* NCAA UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

South Alabama +31.5

Play for 4% at 28.5

2*

Western Michigan +6

2*

Ohio State -28

Get this before it goes over 28. No bet above 28.

We all know they lost a ton of starters from last year but I believe this has given us a cheap price on the Buckeyes. They also struggled to start the season last year and you know Meyer remembers these problems. I expect them to give the fans a big show and absolutely crush Bowling Green who has very little experience at ALL the coaching spots.

2*

Louisiana-Lafayette (UL-Lafayette) +20.5

Personally buying the hook to +21

ULL played at Boise two seasons ago and they were getting 17. Now they play at home and are getting 20. You can call that nearly a 7 point swing with a 4 point HFA for Boise. Huge home and road difference for BSU as the blue field has always been a nightmare for opposing teams. Boise as always been much weaker on the road. Now ULL gets all off-season to prepare in their building for Boise, that has to play a 10:00 clock in their minds (mountain time in Boise, Idaho.) 3 touchdowns is too much to lay to this very live home underdog.

4* FS1 TOP PLAY

Kansas State +16

It's always smart to back one of the best college coaches of all time, Bill Snyder, when he is catching points. He is 20-6 ATS his last 26 times as the underdog which includes 10 outright upsets. Frankly, this is too many points for a Stanford team to lay that has to replace their 4 year QB starter. They have said that they will be trying out two quarterbacks for this game, so this will hurt the rhythm of the offense and that's never a good thing when you have to win by 3 possessions to cover the spread. Bottomline here is that Bill Snyder has had the entire offseason to prepare for this game. This should be a grind it out type of game for both squads and we'll take the generous points every time in those match-ups.

2*

Colorado State +8

2*

Indiana -9

2*

Tulane +17

How is a team that averaged 17 points per game last year, LAYING 17 points?!

5* NFLX VEGAS INSIDER

Jacksonville Jaguars -1

The sharps and a couple of my top NFL guys LOVE Jacksonville tonight. The Jags are desperate for a win. They are 0-2 and have already lost 1 home game this preseason. Team's do NOT want to 0-4 and 0-2 at home in the preseason. This game means much more to the Jags than the Bengals. The Bengals come off a dominating performance against the Lions last week so I expect them to "take it easy" so to speak. There's a reason the Jags are favored here folks. The public is all over the dog and I almost always looks to fade the masses when they're on the dog because typically, the public like the favorite (hence, why they're the favorite.)

2*

Arizona Cardinals -105

4* NFLX TOP DOG

Tennessee Titans +3.5

Staying with the theme of taking the points. I don't think the Raiders are good enough to lay points in the pre-season, let alone over a field goal. Getting 3.5 here is a must bet. No one is going to Oakland games. They don't have a home field advantage for the preseason. I believe the key to this game is the rushing attack. Tennessee clearly has the edge in that department. Even though Carolina took it to them last week, they were able to rush the ball well against the best front 7 in the league. They should have a field day against the Raiders. 

3*

Pittsburgh Steelers +3

The Big 3 (so to speak) for the Steelers are expected to play tonight. The Steelers have been dreadful this preseason so I expect a solid effort from them tonight. A few sharp players have big plays on the Steelers tonight and I always like taking points in the preseason rather than laying them. So many of these games land on 1 point victories (ties refuse to tie) for either side and there are always back door covers.

3*

Kansas City Chiefs +1

KC comes off a gut wrenching loss in Week 1 and St. Louis comes off a crazy comeback at home vs. Dallas. Tremendous spot here to back Andy Reid and fade the Rams coming off their "primetime first home game in LA." 

There are a few things you want to look for in Week 2 of the Preseason:

-Mostly just look towards underdogs.

-Back teams that are coming off a loss in Week 1, especially facing a team off a Week 1 win.

-Typically teams that had very poor outings in the 1st week have more to prove and have more of an incentive to win rather than teams that had exceptional outings (in Week 1) that will sit back in the 2nd week and just evaluate lesser talent. 

4* NFLX GAME OF THE WEEK

New Orleans Saints +3

Another big key here is that the Saints have had 9 days off but the Texans have had only 6.

There are a few things you want to look for in Week 2 of the Preseason:

-Mostly just look towards underdogs.

-Back teams that are coming off a loss in Week 1, especially facing a team off a Week 1 win.

-Typically teams that had very poor outings in the 1st week have more to prove and have more of an incentive to win rather than teams that had exceptional outings (in Week 1) that will sit back in the 2nd week and just evaluate lesser talent. 

3*

Minnesota Vikings +3

I know this is the pre-season but you have to believe the Vikings remember getting beat at home in the playoffs last year. Seattle also comes off a ridiculously lucky win against KC and could be on cruise control for this week.

2*

Chicago Bears +4

There are a few things you want to look for in Week 2 of the Preseason:

-Mostly just look towards underdogs.

-Back teams that are coming off a loss in Week 1, especially facing a team off a Week 1 win.

-Typically teams that had very poor outings in the 1st week have more to prove and have more of an incentive to win rather than teams that had exceptional outings (in Week 1) that will sit back in the 2nd week and just evaluate lesser talent. 

2*

Oakland Raiders +3

2*

Cincinnati Bengals +2

There are a few things you want to look for in Week 2 of the Preseason:

-Mostly just look towards underdogs.

-Back teams that are coming off a loss in Week 1, especially facing a team off a Week 1 win.

-Typically teams that had very poor outings in the 1st week have more to prove and have more of an incentive to win rather than teams that had exceptional outings (in Week 1) that will sit back in the 2nd week and just evaluate lesser talent. 

3*

Oakland Athletics RL +1.5

Was oh so close to taking the Athletics outright, but we'll play it safe. This game is almost identical to the big underdog (+159) we cashed with the same pitchers a few weeks ago....

3* THE BIG UNDERDOG

Oakland Athletics +159

Fading the Texas Rangers along with the public here. Every spot I have checked, the Rangers are loved by the public right now. Everyone's lining up to get down with Darvish tonight. Well most of you know, when everyone loves one side, play the other.

When looking closer at this game, The A's have been Yu Darvish's kryptonite. Oakland has won 8 of their last 9 overall and 5 straight in Texas with Darvish on the mound. On the surface this looks like a big time pitching mis-match, but Manaea is actually in better recent form then Darvish. In their last 3 starts, Manaea has a WHIP of 1.00 and an ERA of 2.70 while Darvish is 1.37 and 2.93 as the Rangers have lost all 3 starts.

Bottomline here is that the A's are playing better ball than the Rangers right now. Oakland has won 4 of their last 5 games and the Rangers are 6-14 their last 20 games. 

2* (Holland Eredivisie)

Feyenoord Rotterdam -1.5

2*

Washington Nationals RL -1.5

2*

Colorado Rockies RL -1.5

50* MLB Run-Line GAME OF THE YEAR

St. Louis Cardinals RL -1.5

Nothing here says San Diego to me. St. Louis has now won 3 straight vs. the Padres, outscoring them 17-6 in the process. Thursday brings Game 4 of the series and San Diego has been extremely bad in Game 4's. They have won just 1 of their last 10. Just look at the pitching match-up here. Andrew Cashner? Yes, he had a solid outing against Bumgarner his last start but I expect a big time regression tonight. Cashner has lost 5 straight road starts against winning competition and is 1-4 following a Quality start. I love this stat for pitchers because it shows how well they do after a solid outing. Clearly Cashner can't put back to back good starts together. Guess who is 39-14 following a Quality start? Yup, Adam Wainwright.

The 2nd half of the season is where the St. Louis Cardinals shine. We see it year after year. The Red Birds turn it on and make an outstanding run into the post-season. Both long term and short term numbers show that St. Louis has always been great at taking care of business against the teams they should beat (opponents with losing record.) Wainwright has now won 5 straight home starts against San Diego and I fully expect him to be 6-0 after tonight. 

30* MLB BLOWOUT WINSDAY

Boston Red Sox RL -1.5

Well we cashed our GOW last night with the Red Sox -1.5 and we're going back to the well again with Boston and for almost the same reasons. Matt Cain, like Peavy, is ready to explode at any moment. He benefits greatly from pitching at AT&T. Fenway in the summer time is as close to a hitter's park as it gets. Furthermore, the Red Sox love to destroy mediocre pitching. They have now won 8 straight when facing a pitcher with a WHIP above 1.30. The Sox also dominate at home in inter-league play, winning 92 of 130.

Drew Pomeranz gets the nod for the Sox and you know he wants to give a great effort for his new club. I do like backing pitchers when they change leagues, almost blindly, but tonight is different because the Giants have seen him with his time with the Padres. However, with the exception to Posey, Pomeranz has owned the Giants lineup. Back in May, he pitched a 7 inning shutout gem against them, where they managed just two hits. 

With Matt Cain being 1-6 in his last 7 road starts and the Giants continuing their bad play on the road against winning competition (5-23) look for Boston to roll again tonight.

40* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK

Boston Red Sox RL -1.5

Consider laying part of your wager on the money-line. I like to do that when laying the RL because it's like you're getting -1 instead of -1.5.

Jake Peavy is a ticking time bomb. Every once in awhile he can pull out a solid performance, but more often than not, this guy gets lit up. He really needs to pitch in a big park. Fenway in the summer is the last place he needs to be. Peavy is 0-9 on the road facing a team with a winning record. Guess who is 9-0 at home? Yup, Porcello and the Sox. That's an 18-0 combined spot. The Giants are also just 5-22 on the road facing a team with a winning record. We have a team and pitcher that struggles mightily on the road facing a team that leads the league in offense and is dynamite at home...Red Sox big.

30*

San Francisco Giants RL -1.5

The best pitcher in the game against my favorite pitcher to fade in the game. My long term guys knew that we would be on this game tonight. Philadelphia has lost 6 straight starts of Hellickson's now and are 5-23 their last 28 games and 2-10 on the road. They have also been dreadful facing LHP, losers of 4 straight and have won just 3 on the road in their last 10. The Giants have won 6 straight home starts of Bumgarner's. I don't see how Bumgarner gives up more than 2 runs here. Giants should easily get 4 off Hellickson and this awful Phillies pen.

20*

Washington Nationals -1.5

20*

New York Mets -1.5

Consider parlaying both plays on the money-line. Also think using the Cubs in a money-line parlay is a solid bet too.

20*

Oklahoma City Thunder +7

I know this might be a trap but I don't care. You can't watch the last 2 games of this series and think that Golden State is the better team. The Thunder can do whatever they want, when they want. They're making the Warriors spectacular defense look like the 76ers. They have dropped 70+ in the FIRST HALF of the last 2 games. 

Yes, Golden State is going to get a HUGE boost from their fans at home but 7 points!? Come on now. I wouldn't be shocked to see OKC win this game outright. In order for Golden State just to WIN this game (not cover) they're going to have to shoot a ridiculous percentage from 3. In order for them to cover, OKC might just have to quit or someone get injured. From what we're seeing in this series, the Thunder look like world beaters and world beaters should not be getting 3 possessions in ANY game.

20* NHL GAME 7 BEST BET

Tampa Bay Lightning +1.5

I know his is a lot of juice for the puck line but if you're able to bet this today (Wednesday) possibly parlay it with Cleveland Cavaliers money-line.

If you can somehow find a 5 for the total, jump on the over immediately.

Tampa Bay has shown that they can play extremely well on the road in these playoffs, especially in this series. They have taken 2 of 3 games in Pittsburgh and their only loss was an OT thriller. Home ice doesn't mean as much as in the other sports, like the NBA. Road teams have done well in Game 7's in prior years. I think the Lightning have a great shot of winning this game outright. Getting the extra goal here is the way to go, because this game should be tight throughout and if this goes to OT, we win regardless.

30*

Cleveland Cavaliers -11

Also lean over here.

I'm expecting another repeat of Games 1 and 2 here. The Cavaliers simply took their opponent for granted. They'll get a huge boost from their home crowd tonight and their 3's should start to fall. Home court advantage means so much to these squads as the home team is now 7-0 ATS the last 7 meetings. Toronto is a poor road team against the number and Lowry is a delicate flower. He has shown he doesn't have the mental fortitude to play on the road and he is KEY for this team's success. Look for Cleveland to frustrate Lowry all night and for Lebron to take over and drive all night to the rim.

20*

San Francisco Giants RL -1.5

I also think a great play for this game is to take San Francisco ML with either the Tigers ML or Red Sox ML. (ML= money-line)

All 3 plays are similar tonight. Hot teams facing bad pitching. The Giants have won 11 of their last 12 games and have had excellent success off Andrew Cashner. San Fran has won 6 straight home games with Cashner on the bump.

30*

Boston Red Sox RL -1.5

This one is simple. The Red Sox are the best offense in the game and beat up on southpaws. They get to face a lefty today that has an ERA of DOUBLE DIGITS! Boston has always been a phenomenal inter-league team, going 89-37 at home. They are also 11-2 at home their last 13 games at Fenway. Boston also beats the teams they are supposed to win against, going 9-1 their last 10. Pitching mis-match and the hotter lineup with the home team.

50* MLB Run-Line GAME OF THE MONTH

Detroit Tigers RL -1.5

My favorite pitcher to fade (Hellickson) against one of the hottest line-ups in the game. Detroit crushes RHP and have won 6 of their last 7 against righties. Verlander is in solid form of late with an ERA of less than 2 over his last 3 starts. Also, Philadelphia has lost 5 straight meetings in Detroit. This powerful Tigers lineup is averaging nearly 7 runs a game over their last 8 contests and they should DESTROY Hellickson here.

20*

Golden State Warriors -8.5

30*

Cleveland Cavaliers -11

40* NBA TOP PLAY BEST BET

San Antonio Spurs -7

I expect this game to be just like Game 1. A dominating performance by the Spurs. This series is tied up 2-2 but the line sits at -7. This shows how much better the Spurs are with that line alone. San Antonio has been outstanding coming off a loss. They are 18-6 ATS. The Thunder are the opposite coming off a win. They are 1-4 ATS.

I expect a huge showing from Tim Duncan. He got 4 quick fouls in Game 4 and was held scoreless for the first time in his career. This obviously benefited the Thunder greatly in the 4th quarter. Spurs are close to invincible at home and they have the best coach in the game. I look for a huge 2nd half run where the Spurs completely shut down the Thunder with their defense and use a 12-2 runs to blow this game open.

40* NBA VEGAS INSIDER

Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5

This is just like our Spurs bet and Warriors bet. Taking the home team in Game 1 with rest. The first two teams mentioned crushed their opponents and this game shouldn't be any different. The Cavaliers have owned the Hawks. This Hawk's front court is too soft for these Cavaliers. No one on this team is going to be able to stop all the threats the Cavaliers have. JR Smith, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love have been lights out from distance. We all know LeBron can do whatever he wants and when he drives and dishes to wide open looks, these guys will drain them. The Cavaliers need to send a message right away to try and deflate any confidence the Hawks have and end this series quickly. They know they need all the rest they can get leading up to the Finals to be able to compete with the winner from the West.

50* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR

Golden State Warriors -8.5

A system that I love in the NBA Playoffs is playing on the home team in Game 1 on rest. San Antonio blasted Oklahoma City in that spot and I am expecting a very similar result in this one. Most people are going to see that Portland beat this team once this year and that there is no Curry, so they can keep this one close. In my opinion, the Trailblazers aren't that good of a team, especially on the road. The Clippers trounced them in the first 2 games of the 1st Round but we all know injuries gave them life and they got extremely lucky to move on. Portland relies way too heavily on the 3 ball and if they are not falling, they can get destroyed. 

Without Steph Curry, the Golden State Warriors are still one of the best teams in the league. When this team gets to play in front of their home crowd, it's really fun to watch. Even when they are locked up in a battle for 3 quarters, they still go on a serious run in the 4th and win by 20. We have seen it time and time again. They have now covered 5 straight games at home, all with huge spreads.

Bottomline here is that this is a gigantic mis-match. Portland is terrible in their current spot and Golden State is dynamite in their situation. The Trailblazers are just 7-21 ATS at Golden State and have covered the spread just 8 times on the road, out of 29, facing a team with a winning record at home.

40*

San Antonio Spurs -6.5

50* NBA MAX BET

Portland Trailblazers -10

Well the Clippers are finished. They had a slim chance at winning the series if they could've grabbed Game 5 at home, but now all hope is lost. Portland is simply too good on their home floor and the Clippers have nothing left in the tank. They know their playoffs hopes are over. I expect little to no life coming from these players. If Portland jumps out to an early lead, I can see LA simply quitting. The Clippers have been dreadful in this spot (and this was when they were healthy) going 1-6 ATS after a loss and just 1-4 ATS on the road. Say goodnight to the Los Angeles Clippers as that franchise continues to have horrible luck. 

40* NBA VEGAS INSIDER

Golden State Warriors -9

20*

Indiana Pacers +1.5

This line looks a trap. The #2 seed is pick em' to the #7 seed. That is pretty rare folks. Indiana is a veteran playoff team with a great head coach and Raptors still have the stigma of struggling in the playoffs. These two teams are polar opposites in their current spot. Toronto has been dreadful coming off a SU + ATS win and Indiana has been fantastic coming of a SU + ATS loss. The Raptors are just 3-7 ATS coming off a SU win and 2-6 coming off an ATS win. The Pacers are a 8-2 ATS coming off a SU loss which includes going a perfect 4-0 ATS following a loss of double digits. Indiana really bounces back well after a poor performance. They are also 16-5 against the number playing on 2 days rest. These stats and trends show that this team prepares extremely well and that they are well coached. Look for Indiana to get it done tonight in front of the home fans.