20*

Washington -10

Not over thinking this one. This game clearly is the "trap" game of the day. Washington State has EVERYTHING to play for here and Washington is out of the Pac-12 title picture. Washington State is also ranked higher and they're GETTING DOUBLE DIGITS! Think about that, the lower ranked team is not only favored in the rivalry game, they're expected to blow them out. Oddsmakers aren't stupid and this looks like a gigantic set up for everyone to jump on the dog here.

30*

South Carolina +13.5

Was waiting to see if it would go back to 14. Big time revenge angle for SC here as Dabo did a bit of rubbing it in last year during their blowout loss to Clemson. If there's one thing I know about these rivalry games, it doesn't matter what the records are...these games are battles and big upsets happen all the time. With two stellar defenses in this one, points will be at a premium so getting the two TDs is a no brainer.

20*

Oregon -26

30*

Atlanta Hawks +2

40* CBB VEGAS INSIDER

Arkansas +4

40* NBA VEGAS INSIDER

Miami Heat +3.5

This simply comes down to being the trap line. The Heat are only getting 3 points to the 16 in a row Boston Celtics? Boston is getting over 80% of the action at nearly every book, yet the line is starting to drop. The Heat should bounce back nicely here as well, since they got destroyed their last game. Miami is 15-6 ATS following a straight up double digit loss.

50* CBB UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

Texas-Arlington +11

Two of the most important factors to be successful on the road in College Basketball is being a great 3 point shooting team and having experience. Well, UTA boasts the 2nd best 3 point shooting team in the land and they start FIVE seniors. One of the biggest problems of Alabama is their FT shooting (#349) and leaving a ton of points at the line only hurts when laying points. UTA has done well covering the number against non-conference foes, going 20-7. This shows that they are constantly being under valued, mostly due from the fact they play in the Sun Belt.

30*

Vanderbilt +3

One of my favorite home field advantages in college basketball is Memorial Gym, Vanderbilt. The raised floor really messes with site lines of visiting teams. Also, the #10 team in the nation is nearly pick em to this unranked Vandy squad and I'll tell you why...Vandy is money making machines against the winning teams. They have covered the spread 17 of the last 22 and this is USC's first true road game of the season.

20*

Chicago Bears +3

Was waiting to see if we could get the 3.5.

We're going to be on the Cowboys too. Going to see if we can get a +7 and then we'll pounce for 3%. If it stays at 6, we'll play for 2%. 

20*

Virginia +18.5

20*

Michigan +7.5

20*

Temple +14

20*

UL-Monroe +36

20*

Texas +3.5

30*

Mercer +51

Play up to 49

30*

Utah -4

40* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK

New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

The situational clearly favors the Pelicans. The Raptors are now playing back to back and 3 road games in 4 nights. The two prior games were against two of the best teams in the league, Boston (came down to the wire) and Houston (lights out shooting.)

The Pelicans are playing their 3rd straight home game and had the night off last night. They are currently on a 5-1 win streak. Their only loss...to these Raptors just a few nights ago. Big time revenge angle for the Pelicans. The Raptors have also failed to cover the spread in 4 straight following a straight up win.

20*

Denver +11.5

20*

Lipscomb +14.5

30*

Iona +10

40*

College of Charleston +17

This game reminds me a lot of our Vermont selection last night that cashed. The spread just looks way too short/easy. Ranked teams typically lay nearly 20/30 points to these mid majors. This is the #7 Wichita State Shockers at home and they're only laying 17?! If you look closer, the head coach of CoC was an assistant under Marshall for 6 years and has familiarity with the program. Charleston also returns all 5 of their starters. 

30*

Providence -2

40*

Vermont +13

50* NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

Buffalo Bills +3

I am shocked we get the full FG here. To be honest, I was seeing if we could get lucky and snag a 3.5, but it's Saturday and we need to get this game out.

The situation clearly favors the Bills. They last played Thursday on the road, but it was still in New York (close to home), and looked awful against the Jets. Buffalo now gets the extra time to prepare and gets to play in their own building, where they are perfect on the season.

The stock couldn't be higher on the Saints right now and they are nearly unstoppable in New Orleans. However, its a completely different story on the road. They are just 1-7 ATS playing outdoors and to make matters worse, it's going to be damn near freezing in Buffalo on Sunday.

For all intents and purposes, this game is a must win for Buffalo. If you look at their remaining schedule, it'll be an uphill battle for the playoffs if they drop this one. Two against New England and on the road in KC. They also finish the season with two on the road.

30*

Utah +1.5

The Utes have the perfect squad to give the Cougars fits. They have an outstanding defensive line and the offensive line has been the achilles heel for Washington State. Utah also has a terrific home field advantage and they come to play when facing the good teams. Utah is now 6-0 ATS when facing a team with a winning record.

30*

Georgia Tech +3

This is a must win for the Yellow Jackets. With a game (they most likely lose) to Georgia left on their schedule, they need this game to go bowling. As mentioned in our picks with Iowa State and Duke, this game falls into the dream crusher theory (Virginia Tech) AND the triple option theory (Georgia Tech.) This looks like a serious flat spot for VT, coming off a huge loss to Miami and then having to deal with the triple option attack with just one week to prepare. To be quite honest, only reason this isn't a top play is because this is Virginia Tech. Everyone has those few teams that just find away to piss them off. This situation is just too good to pass up not to bet and since the underdog has covered 10 of the last 11 in this series and we'll play GT for 3%.  

40*

Duke -2.5

This line just stinks to me. A 4-5 Duke team is laying a FG on the ROAD to a 7-2 Army team that is 5-0 at home?! If you look closer, you will see that Duke has had two weeks to prepare for this game. It's almost always been successful to back the triple option teams with one week to prepare but you fade them when the opponents have the extra time. 

50* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR

Boston College +3

This game couldn't set up any better for the Golden Eagles. First off, BC has had since October 27th to get ready for this game. Furthermore, this is Boston College's last home game of the season. Motivation will be at an all time high and the atmosphere should be electric. 

NC State comes into this game off of two tough conference losses to ND and Clemson after starting the season 6-1. This team had ACC Title aspirations. It's going to be tough to get up for this game after playing two of the biggest programs in the country, especially after that nail biter at home against the National Champs. I expect a let down here from the Wolfpack. 

Bottomline is that Boston College has been money making machines of late, cashing 6 straight games against the number. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings at home against NC State.

40* TOP PLAY UPSET SHOCKER

Iowa State +7

This what I like to call the "dream crusher" theory. Oklahoma State is now out of the College Football Playoff hunt with a devastating loss to their arch rival last week. This also nearly evaporates any chance of Mason Rudolph winning the Heisman Trophy. I don't know if this team has the motivation to blowout Iowa State here.

Iowa State has one of the more underrated home field advantages in college sports. The Cyclones have proved that they can ball with anyone. They knocked off Oklahoma and TCU! Iowa State is also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Cyclones have the secondary to match up with the Cowboys. Grabbing the +7 in this game is a must.

30* NBA Friday BEST BET

Detroit Pistons -9

Atlanta just went through Murderer’s Row playing a 3 games in 4 nights sets against Boston, Houston, and an outright upset of the Cavaliers. They now have had 3 days off since then and I believe this will only hurt. The Hawks should be rusty as they are 5-13 ATS with 3+ days off. They face a Pistons team that is in an advantageous spot, having been playing at home since November 3rd winning 3 straight. The Pistons have always done well covering the number against the bad teams of the league (losing record) at home, going 13-3.

20*

Miami Heat -6

This play is based off the benching of Hassan Whiteside. I expect an inspired effort from Miami tonight, facing a Suns team that have OWNED in the past. Miami is 23-7 ATS which includes going 8-1 the last 9 in Phoenix. The Suns are also just 2-11 ATS when facing a team with a losing record.

20*

Green Bay Packers +3

50* NFL Situational GAME OF THE YEAR

Philadelphia Eagles -8

It's a very rare scheduling spot in the NFL but when it happens, I love to fade it. The Denver Broncos are playing their THIRD straight road game. What makes it even worse for Denver is that they are going from Los Angeles to Kansas City and now to Philadelphia, playing on a short week from Monday Night Football. This is a huge advantage for the Birds as they are playing their third straight HOME game and are plenty rested.

Brock Osweiler is getting the start for the Broncos. The only guy worse than this dude is Jay Cutler. Osweiler is SO bad that the CLEVELAND BROWNS are paying his salary (nearly $900,000) for this game against the Eagles. Think about that. A team that has been notoriously bad with QB play is PAYING you to play for different team. 

The Broncos are on a losing streak and they really aren't in a situation where they can afford to lookahead, but it's worth noting that they do have the New England Patriots on deck at home. 

FWIW, this is a fantastic teaser leg. I recommend the New Orleans Saints.

50* CFB GAME OF THE MONTH

Alabama -21

I love the fact that Alabama was ranked #2. It's so obvious that this team is the best in the country and are the cream of the crop. Don't be fooled by the non-sense. I am REALLY hoping its a Georgia/Alabama SEC Championship and we will be BLASTING Bama minus the points. The disrespect of the #2 ranking is going to have this team playing with a huge chip on their shoulder. Add in the fact that Bama is coming off their bye week, where they are a perfect 4-0 ATS, I feel sorry for the LSU Tigers. I expect Nick Saban to open up a huge can of whoop ass on these boys. Typically when LSU plays Alabama, the spread is in the single digits. Now we have a 3 TD spread?! There's a reason for this guys. This Alabama defense is ferocious and it's nearly impossible to score in the double digits against these guys. What's even more impressive is their current play at home. In their home games this season, the Tide has scored 66, 45, and 41 three times. I expect this game to get ugly.

30*

Denver Nuggets -4

Going to give the Nuggets one more chance. They haven't been kind to us this year and if they can't take out the lowly Knicks in this terrific spot, it's time to stay away from them. 

Obvisouly this is a let down spot for the Knicks, as they creamed the Cavaliers last night at the Q, but this has been an awful spot for the Knicks lately and I'll tell you why. NY is just 1-6 ATS following a double digit straight up win, which means they get over valued. They are also just 1-6 ATS when scoring 100+ points. This means that they usually have a let down after a solid offensive performance. The Nuggets have covered 5 straight in this series and I expect that perfect run to continue tonight.

20*

Seattle Seahawks -6.5

This might sound a little ridiculous but I like this play based on the drama of the Texans organization right now. We all saw what happened to the Oakland Raiders on Sunday Night Football against the Redskins when they weren't all there mentally, due to the Anthem protests. Houston went into their bye week off a beat down performance and I typically like fading teams that go into their bye off a huge win and backing teams that go into their off week of a bad loss. The Texans are also just 1-6 ATS following a straight up win. I recommend this as a solid teaser leg with KC and New Orleans as well.

30*

New Orleans Saints -9

I love backing the Saints at home. This team is just like Seattle when playing in their own building. It's nearly impossible to beat them. I expect Mitch Trubisky to have an awful game here today. This offense won't be able to trade points with Drew Brees and company. The Saints have always done well against the teams they are supposed to beat. They are 7-1 ATS facing a team with a losing record. The Bears also have their bye coming up next week so if this team gets down big early, they could just lay down for the rest of the game and allow the Saints to run them out of the gym.

50* GT/Clemson MAX BET Parlay

Clemson -14

I know it's surprising for me to go against a triple option team but I believe this is the perfect spot to back the National Champs. We all know Clemson is coming off a loss but the key here is that they have had over two weeks to prepare, since they played on a Friday. I've always been a fan of backing the triple option teams when their opponents get them on a short week or just one week. However, I love to fade them when they go into their bowl game or teams have an extended period of time to prepare for them. The icing on the cake here is that it's Clemson and that fantastic defensive front.

How do you stop the triple option? Disrupt them right off the snap and Clemson has the big men on the DL to destroy the attack. The Tigers are also allowing only 13.6 points per game but just 7.5 at home. One of the toughest places in play in all of college football is Death Valley at night. I expect Clemson to just destroy GT by not allowing them to score and with GT having the rushing attack, it will take time off the clock and shortening the game, hence the under play as well.

40* NC State/Notre Dame BEST BET

NC State +7.5

We were on Notre Dame last week big but we'll be on NC State here for almost the same reasons. NC State (like Notre Dame last week) has two weeks to prepare for this game. Notre Dame played against their hated rival, USC, and put up the performance of the season. It's only natural for these guys to have a let down.

Even though FSU and Louisville are in down years, they were still ranked at the time NC State played them and the Wolfpack stepped up to the plate and took them out. This shows that this team does not back down and doesn't fear the big name program. I also love the fact that Notre Dame is just 6-14 ATS after a straight up win of 20 or more points. This shows that the Fighting Irish are usually over valued after a big win. Getting over the 7 is HUGE here and don't be surprised if this game comes right down to the wire.

20*

Ohio State -6

I'll be honest with you guys, we're playing this game solely on the line. This game reminds me a lot of our college basketball system. This line STINKS. The #2 team in the country, who just laid a beat down to Michigan for all to see, is catching a TD against Ohio State?! Something is up here. Nearly 70% of tickets at most shops are on Penn State. Like I've said before, we LOVE fading a public underdog. Look for Ohio State to get their revenge from last years lost in a big way.

40* NCAA BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK

Kansas State -24

There are certain games I look forward to every year and this is one of them. You can almost blindly take Kansas State against their in-state rival, Kansas, and make a killing. KSU has covered the number in 17 of the last 22 meetings. The reason why we're going heavy this season is because KSU let Kansas get the backdoor cover last year. I am expecting KSU to lay a total beat down this time around because prior to that, KSU has won by an average of 33 points per game. I also like KSU here because they sit at 3-4 on the season. A dominating performance puts them back at 4-4 and still alive for a bowl bid.

20*

West Virginia +7

This is an awful lot of a points to give the Mountaineers at home. OSU gets all the headlines with their offense leading the nation but WVU is right behind them at 5th in yards per game and 4th in scoring.

Oklahoma State is in a terrible spot here. This is what the guys in the business like to call a sandwich game. Oklahoma State just played a grueling road game in Texas where they pulled out an OT victory and now they have to travel to West Virginia with their arch rival Oklahoma on deck. Bottomline here is that WVU has the offense to keep up with the Cowboys and getting a full TD here is a bonus.

30*

New York Knicks -2

One of our main handicapping angles is simply fading the “trap” line or the spread that looks too easy. The Nets just took out the mighty Cleveland Cavaliers and are the main surprise of the NBA season so far. However this is a tough spot for them playing 4 games in 6 nights and alternating home and away games. The Knicks are winless on the season but are favored. That should tell you all you need to know.

30*

Denver Nuggets -2.5

I love fading a public underdog. Also, there is a reason the Nuggets are favored on the road here folks. This game is a trend lovers dream. Denver is a combined 10-0 ATS on the road, facing a team with a a losing record and they are also 17-5 ATS following a straight up loss. Injuries have really hurt the Hornets to begin the season and to be quite honest, I love going against Dwight Howard. There are certain players I love betting on or hate betting against (Aaron Rodgers/Clayton Kershaw) and players I hate betting on or love betting against (Cutler/Anthony) and Dwight Howard is definitely one of them. He has that "I don't care" attitude and he can't buy a free throw to save his life.

50* NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

Denver Broncos +1

One of my favorite angles in the NFL is backing a team that laid a complete egg in primetime. The Denver Broncos got embarrassed on Sunday Night Football against the injury depleted Giants as 13 point favorites. Professional sports are all about motivation and if there is one team that has something to prove this week, it's the Denver Broncos. I also love the fact that this game is on the road. Usually when there are "problems" you want to get away from your home field to relieve some of the pressure. What makes this even better is that they're playing at the best place to play a road game in the NFL. The Los Angeles Chargers have ZERO home field advantage. In all honestly, I think they have a negative HFA. 

Like I said in the promo, this is just our 2nd 50* on an underdog this season. The first...The Chargers on Monday Night Football Week 1, catching 3.5. I must admit, we did get lucky to cover that game as Denver pretty much owned the Chargers from the get go. I expect an inspired performance from the Broncos this week and all it takes is one big mistake from Philip Rivers. He'll lose his cool and the Broncos will run away with this game.

UPDATE: This line has climbed all the way to -2 at some spots. I would still play this game for 5% at -2 or less

40* NFL TOP PLAY SHOCKER

Cincinnati Bengals +5.5

I am expecting a let down here from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh just did the near impossible and beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead. The Steelers have been the zig zag team of the year. They always follow a great performance with a crappy one. They're taking on a Bengals team that is fresh off their bye week. Cincy's offense has come alive since they made the switch of OCs and their defense has been lights out. They currently boast the #2 defense in the NFL. Bottomline here is that I still think there are severe locker rooms issues in Pittsburgh. It's one thing being an underdog with chemistry problems but when you're the favorite and you're expected to win, it's a whole different ball game.

UPDATE: This line has now dropped to 4 and even 3.5 in some spots. Try your best and get that +4. I would play for 3% under that.

40* USC/ND BEST BET

Notre Dame -3.5

Sorry for the late release but we have been waiting to see if we could get the 3 all week. We'll go ahead and play for 4% now.

There are three main factors for this selection. We have the obvious revenge angle for the Fighting Irish. The USC Trojans are DECIMATED by injuries right now, and Notre Dame has had the all important two weeks to prepare for this game. 

USC is 6-1 but they have been barely getting by week after week. Some of these final scores have been very misleading as the games were close throughout until the final few minutes. The problem with the Trojans is turnovers. They are FIFTH from the bottom in the FBS in turnovers! They have had at least two turnovers in each game this season. Guess which team is one of the best in the nation in turnover margin? Yup, its the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Like most games, turnovers play a huge part of who wins the game. I believe that a key turnover(s) will lead to the demise of the Trojans tonight. 

30*

Navy +8

I always have a soft spot for backing these triple option teams. The triple option is so hard to defend and if you are not used to it, you will be dominated in time of possession and you will look clueless. This is UCF's first trip to Navy. I don't know if they're going to be ready for this atmosphere/running attack. Navy has covered 15 of their last 20 home games. This is a TON of points to be giving Navy. I think anything at 7 or above is a total steal.

30*

Brooklyn Nets -1.5

30*

Milwaukee Bucks +2

50* NBA MAX BET

Los Angeles Clippers -6

There is a TON of value on the Clippers tonight. In the last few years, I have almost blindly taken the Clippers against the Lakers. The Clippers always want to lay a beat down to the Lakers because they are the "little brother." Typically this line has always been in the double digits. It's now down below the key number of 7 simply because of Chris Paul and the Lonzo Ball hype. Patrick Beverly is a more than capable replacement and is a terrific defender. I also love the fact that the public is in love with the Lakers here. My long term clients know that one of my favorite angles is fading a public underdog. Look for the Clippers to continue their domination of the Lakers.

30*

Denver Nuggets +3

40* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE WEEK

Boston Celtics +3.5

I think the number alone tells us who the right side is here. The defending Eastern Conference Champions are at home and are nearly a pick em? I think Boston has more to prove. For one, we all know Kyrie Irving is looking to dish out a little revenge. Also, it's clear that Boston has the head coaching advantage. 

I don't want to say they don't care at all about the regular season, but Cleveland is built for the playoffs. This team could walk to the 8th seed and they would still find away to make it to the NBA Finals. Cleveland knows its not the end of the world if they lose this game. I think it's going to just be a LeBron/Wade hang out party for awhile, just having fun, while the Celtics will mean business. I think the points are just a bonus tonight and I really like the Celtics chances of stealing this one on the road.

50* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH

New Orleans Saints -4

There are certain teams/coaches you should always keep your eye on when coming off the bye week and you guessed it, the Saints are one of them. New Orleans is now 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 games having the extra week to prepare.

People have forgotten about the Saints as they started off the season slow at 0-2. But when you look closer, they had a real tough game in Minnesota and they moved the ball well against that fantastic defense but they shot themselves in the foot too many times in goal to go situations and it cost them. They then had to take on Patriots in one of New England's best spots, off a loss. The Saints have now bounced back nicely with two straight wins and their defense is a big part of that. New Orleans has allowed just 1 TD since September 24th.

Another reason this is a great play is that the public is ALL over the Lions here. I love going against a public underdog. This reminds me a lot of the Bills game last week. The public ran to the window to get points with Buffalo against the Bengals (who also started out the season 0-2.) Well, the public got buried there and I expect them to go down in flames here as well. 

50* NCAA GAME OF THE MONTH

Georgia Tech +6

I LOVE this play and to be quite honest, this would have been a GOY but the last two times we labeled a play "game of the year" they've been complete train wrecks. But that's just semantics and we'll play this game for 5%.

This is a situational dream for a sports bettor. We have Georgia Tech coming into this game with two weeks to prepare, while the Hurricanes come off a miracle win against their ARCH rival. A let down is almost inevitable for the U. It's extremely tough to prepare for this triple option that Georgia Tech runs in just one week, especially after you play the biggest game of your season. Another positive for Tech is that heavy rain is in the forecast. It's going to be hard to throw the ball in the bad weather. This gives GT a huge advantage as this will be a battle of the rushers and that's what the Yellow Jackets do, they beat you on the ground. 

It's gone under the radar but these Yellow Jackets have been money making machines. They have now covered the number in 8 straight contests. That's the kind of team I want my money on and I'm betting that they make it 9 in a row Saturday.

40* NCAA UPSET SHOCKER

Rutgers +3

The world is lining up right now to take Illinois and what's even more surprising is that this line has dropped from -3.5 PASSED the key number of 3 to 2.5 in some spots. That's some serious money on the dog. Rutgers also is in a terrific bounce back spot after getting blanked two weeks ago against Ohio State. I believe this game means more to Rutgers as they always have a very tough time winning games in conference play, so when they have a game that is winnable in the Big 10, they go all out.

30*

Carolina Panthers -3

Getting this game at 3 is a steal for me. I believe the Panthers are back to their terrific form of who they were two years ago. Last year was their Super Bowl hangover and now they are back with a vengeance. The Eagles did look great last week against the Cardinals but let's face it, Arizona is TERRIBLE. The Cardinals could easily be 0-5 right now. Cam did struggle early on and there was some question marks on his performance but he was getting over shoulder surgery and needed time to gel as he did miss the preseason. He now looks ready to go and it shows. Their offense has been lighting it up the past two weeks and they should again here against a banged up Eagles D. Bottomline is that the home team has been a dynamite bet on these Thursday Night games and we'll gladly lay the 3 with Carolina.

20*

Cincinnati Bengals -3

I'll be honest with you guys, this is one hell of a situation to back the Bengals here. However, if this was nearly any other team, this would be a huge play because I love this spot. I just don't like Andy Dalton. So given the fact this situation is just too good to pass up, we'll play for 2%.

We have a 3-1 team facing a 1-3 team but the 1-3 team (that only beat the Browns) is favored by -3. Most shops currently are getting a ton of Buffalo action and some even have the Bills as the most popular bet for the Sunday ticket. Well you know we love fading the favorite pick of the public. Just look at last week with the Jaguars.

30*

Tulane -4.5

30*

Dallas Stars -1.5

For what its worth, we also took Dallas Stars OVER 43.5 Wins. 

30*

San Francisco 49ers +7

Yes, we're going with the 49ers and the Jets today. I know these will not be popular selections. However, the popular selections usually don't fare well. 

This is a great spot for the 49ers and a terrible spot for the Cardinals. San Francisco gets the extra time to prepare since they played on Thursday and they also get to carry that momentum from their near come back. 

Arizona played on Monday night and this team is a total mess. They started off the game great but like typical Cardinals fashion, they fell apart and their offensive line crumbled. This team should not be laying 7 to anyone right now. San Francisco is desperate for a win and they have done great ATS in Arizona covering 8 of the last 11. I believe the points are just a bonus here.

40* NFL UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK

New York Jets +3.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars are road favorites. Let me say that again. The JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS are road FAVORITES. Not only are they road favorites, they are laying OVER a field goal. The Jaguars haven't been road favorites in 44 games. What's even more surprising is that they are the most popular bet side right now at several shops.

This is a terrible spot for the Jags as they are returning home from London and they looked like world beaters against the Ravens. This team is prime for a letdown. As for the Jets, they played inspired ball last week and I look for that to carry over here. Remember, everyone wrote the Jets off this year. These players are playing like they have nothing to lose and that is a dangerous team to face.

30* 

Florida State -7

This is an ultra rare spot for the Seminoles. They are 0-2 on the season and took a real back breaking loss last week at home against NC State. One could expect a poor performance from them last week as they did have a very unusual scheduling spot. It was their first game in 3 weeks and first game for the true Freshman, James Blackman. Rust clearly was a factor last Saturday. Florida State HAS to bounce back today or you might as well wrap up the season. Wake Forrest is 4-0 this year and that is why this line is so short. However, Wake Forest has played Presbyterian, BC, USU, and App State. Hardly murderer's row.

50* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH

Vanderbilt +9

Yes, we did fade Vanderbilt last time out against Alabama and I knew that if the Tide "rolled" and Florida snuck by Kentucky this was going to be a TOP play on Vandy and it worked out perfectly.

The last two meetings between these two teams have been pure defensive dead locks. Last year Florida won 13-6 and the previous year Florida won 9-7. That's a combined 9 points. Now the Gators have to LAY that in this game?! One of the handicapping fundamentals of sports is you look towards taking the big points with a low total partly because if points are going to be really tough to come by, then it obviously makes it that much more difficult to cover the spread. 

Although Florida is a "winning" team at 2-1, this team is extremely lucky not to be 0-3. They were saved against Tennessee when their Hail Mary prayers were answered and they completed the miracle comeback against Kentucky last week, down 13 points. The Gators have been total money burner for backers lately. They have covered the number just twice in their last 11 home games and are 0-4 ATS at home against the Commodores. This number is only this high because of the beatdown Vanderbilt took last week. I look for a very inspired effort here from Vandy and this game should be tight throughout.

30*

Iowa State +5

Love the points here. Iowa State has one of the great under rated home field advantages in basketball AND football. Iowa State every year has that shocker in the Big 12 and I believe this could be the one. The Cyclones have been dynamite against the number at home, cashing 7 of 8 and they are a perfect 6-0 ATS when having the prime time Thursday Night special. Texas is getting way too much credit here laying this number on the road and it's inflated because of their notoriety.  

50* NFL Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR

Oakland Raiders -3

Most of my long term subscribers know this but I'm a Washington Redskins fan. I should say sort of a Skins fan. I do follow this team very closely. One thing I know for sure about this squad, is that you fade them when they play primetime games. That are an absolute laughing stock when playing under the lights. Yes this might be the "square" or "public" play but it all honesty, that doesn't matter when it comes to the Washington Redskins. This same thing happened last year on Monday Night Football when the Steelers were laying 3 at Fed Ex to the Skins. The Steelers absolutely crushed the Redskins. I expect a similar result here.

The Redskins defense, especially pass defense, has been borderline pathetic now for nearly a decade. I simply can't imagine what Derek Carr (who has done an excellent job at protecting the ball) is going to do to this soft secondary. To make matters worse for the Redskins, both teams are traveling from California this week. However, the Redskins were in a battle against a tough defense and their old offensive coordinator in LA. Whereas the Raiders had a "bye week" laying a beat down at home to the lowly Jets.

Getting this at a FG or less is a total bargain. I couldn't believe this even opened -2.5 at some shops. Picking the correct spots to bet against the Redskins is what I do. I believe this is going to be the best situation to go heavy against Washington and we'll make the Raiders our GOY.

Best of luck to us and thank you for being a customer. I truly appreciate it!

30*

New Orleans Saints +6

This is one of the great NFL handicapping angles of Week 3. Taking an underrated 0-2 team against an overrated 2-0 team. The Saints lost to the Vikings on the road and the best team in the NFL, the Patriots. On the other hand, the Panthers beat the awful 49ers and just snuck away from the Bills at home. When you look closer at the games, the Saints are that bad and the Panthers aren't that good. 

The Saints have been terrific against the number following back to back losses, going 15-6. New Orleans has covered 4 straight against the Panthers and 3 straight at Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers are especially known to be over valued after win with a 2-9 ATS record in their following game.

20* 

New York Jets +6.5

I know it's real tough to back the Jets but if there is a time to back them, here it is. How often do you get nearly a touchdown for your home opener? Just from that standpoint its worth a wager. Furthermore, the Jets are facing a team that is not very good in my opinion and in an awful spot. To be honest, Jay Cutler might be my least favorite QB of all time. I think he is just flat out terrible and he always lays an egg in the big moments. This game has a typical Jay Cutler meltdown written all over it.

30*

Auburn -17.5

Was waiting to see if we could get a 17.

30*

Air Force +3.5

40* NCAA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK

Alabama -18.5

30*

New York Giants -3

Sorry for the late release. Was waiting on the status of Odell Beckham Jr.

50* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH

Louisville +3.5

This line truly doesn't make any sense to me. Louisville was 2 point ROAD favorites last season and now they are 3.5 point HOME underdogs. Clemson got worse and Louisville got better. Obviously there's the huge revenge angle for the Cardinals. A lot has been made about this Clemson defense recording 11 sacks last week but that was against a joke of a QB. How do you beat this Clemson team? A running QB. Bottomline, Dabo Swinney is just 1-8 ATS when a road favorite of 7 or less. 

40* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

Mississippi State +7.5

30*

Kansas City Royals +1.5

A great situational play in sports is when teams go on long win streaks and then finally lose, you fade them in their next game. Most think that they will definitely bounce back but more often than not, they suffer another letdown. Normally i would just take the team ML but betting able to get the insurance at PLUS money is they way to go. 

20*

Central Michigan +10

40* UCLA/Memphis TOP PLAY

Memphis +3.5

This has the makings of the public burial of the day. The UCLA Bruins are the most popular bet at nearly every shop I have spoken with this week. Everyone is lining up for some easy money. Not so fast my friend. Memphis has had two weeks to prepare for these Bruins (Memphis is a perfect 4-0 ATS following a bye week) and it's a dreadful spot for UCLA. This is going to be a 9 am start time for them. Also, the UCLA rush defense has been just awful to start the year, allowing nearly 7 yards per carry on the ground. UCLA is a miserable 0-7 ATS following a straight up win of 20+ points (shows that they are over valued the next week) and are 1-6 and 3-13 ATS in non conference play.

20*

Pittsburgh +13

20*

Chicago Cubs RL -1.5

50* Monday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH

Los Angeles Chargers +3.5

I think the only thing Denver has going for them here is home field advantage. I believe that the Chargers are the better team. They are flying completely under the radar. I think there's serious trouble at the QB position for the Broncos. This new offense the Broncos are trying to run doesn't fit the mold of Siemian. They even went out and signed Brock Osweiler. Any team singing him is a desperate football team. 

The Chargers have always been a solid road team ATS and have done exceptionally well in Denver covering the number. Getting over a FG is the way to go.

50* NFL VEGAS INSIDER

Tennessee Titans -1.5

This is the quintessential "Pros vs. Joes" game. The world is going to jump all over the Raiders catching points here. One of my favorite things to fade is when the public loves a road underdog. Typically, people want to bet the over and the favorite (hence WHY they are the favorite) so when the public loves the underdog, especially the ROAD dog, you jump all over the other side. 

When you talk to wiseguys and sports book operators, there's a unanimous hate for Oakland. The numbers just don't add up with them and they are due to take a step back (hence why we also like Oakland UNDER 10 wins.) This team had the worst defensive unit in yards per play last season and benefitted greatly from turnover luck. Even their point differential shows that this team was more like an 8-8 team than a 12-4 squad.

The Titans have now lost back to back years to the Oakland Raiders, so this give us our double revenge angle. When looking closer at last season's game, you will see that turnovers is what killed the Titans. They were able to gash Oakland on the ground and I believe they will do the same this Sunday. 

Bottomline here is that betting is a numbers game. There's a saying that I love "You don't bet sports, you bet numbers." Oddsmakers more often than not will tell you the right side of a game simply by what line they set. Now obviously it doesn't work like that every time because again, they do have to actually PLAY the game and you never know about injuries or ridiculous calls, but I strongly believe 9 out of 10 times, the Titans roll in their home opener.

20*

Illinois +7.5

20*

Louisiana Tech +10

50* Auburn vs. Clemson MAX BET

Auburn +6

20*

West Virginia -24

40* NCAA Friday GAME OF THE WEEK

Ohio +4

Week 2 of College Football is one of my favorite weeks because of the over reactions of Week 1. Purdue played Louisville down to the wire at home and surprised a lot of people by easily covering the near 4 TD spread. Now they have a short week and have to get up for lowly Ohio. 

What tells a huge story is this current spread. 3.5's have popped up at several spots and "typical" home field advantage is 3 points. Oddsmakers are saying Purdue is nearly the same team as a MID MAJOR! The public has jumped all over the Boilermakers looking for some easy cash. However, the sharp bettors and market movers are ALL over the road dog here. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ohio win this game outright.

50* MONDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH

Georgia Tech +3.5

50* NCAA Football MAX BET

Florida Atlantic +10.5

Lots of things to like here about the Owls. It's typically a great bet to back these "lesser known" schools as home underdogs when they are playing under the lights in primetime. It's rare for them to get these games, so they get a big boost from the fans. 

Another key here is the triple option of Navy. For starters, they are breaking in a new QB on the ROAD which is always tough. Also, triple option teams do have the advantage when teams only have a week to prepare for them. FAU has had the entire summer to prepare for this attack.

30*

Raiders +2.5

30*

Buffalo +23.5

30*

Florida International (FIU) +17

20*

New York Jets +5.5

40* NFL Network TOP PLAY

Los Angeles Chargers -3.5

Long term subscribers are probably sick of hearing this by now but the NFL Preseason is about motivation and coaching. The Saints probably care the least of any team in the NFL during the preseason, having lost 10 straight. On the other side, you have the Chargers who have a big point to prove tonight. 

It's really hard to do in the preseason, but the Chargers got EMBARASSED last week against the Seahawks. The Chargers really need to give L.A. something to get excited about this week. First year coach, Anthony Lynn, will have to answer a lot of questions if they lay another egg. I expect an inspired performance from the Chargers Sunday night, while the Saints do what they always do and take it easy.

40* NFLX GAME OF THE WEEK

Philadelphia Eagles -4

I probably sound like a broken record by now but my recipe for success in the preseason is 3 factors. You look at the coaching, the back up QBs, and motivation. Well the Eagles have the advantage in all three tonight.

Coach Doug Pederson has shown he wants to win in the preseason. He went 4-0 last season but lost his first game this year, albeit on the road. It'll be a good spot to back him tonight as I expect him to want to put on a show for the home fans to build excitement for the new season and to bounce back from the loss last week. Jeffery and Darby are expect to suit up as well.

The Buffalo Bills are a train wreck. They have zero offense. I don't think Tyrod Taylor is a good QB, so that should tell you about how talented their back ups are in Buffalo. 

30*

Detroit Lions -1

20* Cowboys v. Rams BEST BET

Los Angeles Rams +3

Like we've mentioned before, NFL Preseason comes down to motivation, coaching, and the back up QBs. This pick is just like our 49ers play last night. We have a coach that doesn't care about the Preseason (Garrett is 3-10 SU his last 13) with a team that has nothing to prove. Now they have the added distraction of the Elliott suspension and I can see the Boys just going through the motions tonight. The Rams are breaking in the new regime with a 1st year head coach in McVay. This game means more to Los Angeles. We also are catching points at home, which is just an added bonus. 

30*

San Francisco 49ers +5

This is just too many points. Handicapping the NFL preseason basically comes down to 3 things. Motivation, Coaches, and the back up QBs. Typically the "bad" teams do well in the preseason and the "great" teams do awful. That's what we have here. Motivation should be high tonight for SF as they are breaking in a new regime and 1st year coaches have a lot to prove. Andy Reid and the Chiefs have absolutely nothing to prove. Reid has gone 9-10 S.U. in Week 1 of the Preseason and we're GETTING 5 points. 

20*

New York Yankees RL -1.5

50* One & Only NBA GAME OF THE YEAR

Golden State Warriors -8.5

I have been hoping for this since October and knew since the beginning of the season that if we got Game 5 in Oakland with the Warriors up 3 games to 1 that this would be the NBA GOY. Well our prayers were answered and let's hope it comes through.

We ALL know what happened last year. Golden State was up 3-1 and fell apart (thanks to several injuries and a Draymond suspension.) You KNOW that the Warriors have been foaming at the mouth for this situation to happen again. This team has the ultimate revenge angle and they're all healthy. This reminds me exactly like the Spurs/Heat series a few years ago. The previous year the Spurs had the championship in their grasps and let it fall through their fingers. What happened the next year? The Spurs went up 3-1 in the series and opened up a can of whoop ass at home versus LeBron and the Heat.

It's one of the oldest adages in the book..."History has a funny way of repeating itself." Just like the Spurs, I expect the Warriors to run the Cavaliers out of the gym tonight and get their sweet revenge in a big way.

20*

San Diego Padres RL +1.5