The set-up: The 1-2 San Jose State Spartans will visit Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City to take on the 2-0 Utah Utes this Saturday night. The Utes are not ranked in the AP poll but do check in at No. 24 in the coaches' poll. The Spartans own a 43-13 home win over Cal-Poly but have lost 42-22 at home to USF (season-opener) and last Saturday lost 56-0 at Texas. The Utes opened with a 37-16 home win over North Dakota and then improved to 2-0 on the season by defeating BYU 19-13 at Provo this past Saturday. Utah jumped out to a 19-6 lead with 2:35 left in the 3rd quarter and were able to survive a late BYU comeback in the 4th.

San Jose State: The Spartans opened the season with a first-year head coach in Brent Brennan and have played three QBs so far with red-shirt freshman Montel Aaron making his first start in the loss to Texas. The Spartans are averaging only 18.7 PPG (110th) on 346.7 YPG (99th). The defense was gashed for 623 total yards by Texas, including 406 yards and six TDs on the ground. San Jose St. is allowing 37.0 PPG (115th) on 468.0 YPG (112th).

Utah: Tyler Huntley is the team's new QB and he's a true dual-threat. He has completed 73.5 percent of his passes for 527 yards (one TD / one INT) and is also he team’s leading rusher with 159 yards on 37 attempts (three rushing TDs). Huntley's top target is Oregon transfer Darren Carrington, who has 17 catches for 256 yards and a TD. The Utes are averaging a modest 28.0 PPG (87th) on offense but the defense has been excellent, allowing 14.5 PPG (30th) on 235.5 YPG (17th).

The pick: Utah holds a 7-1 lead in the series between these former WAC rivals, including a 34-16 road win last season in San Jose. The Utes are 23-1 in non-conference games since joining the Pac-12 in 2011. Utah hasn't had a breakout offensive effort yet but I expect one here vs. San Jose State, which was routed by Texas last week (see above) and as noted above, has allowed 37.0 PPG (115th) on 468.0 YPG (112th). The Over is an 8* play.

The set-up: Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney claims he loves playing in big games and his team's showdown against Louisville on Saturday night certainly qualifies. ABC will be on hand as current AP No. 3 Clemson (2-0) and the defending national champs, travel to Papa John's Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. to take on 2-0 Louisville, which is currently ranked 14th in the AP poll. Eventual Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson almost single-handedly lifted Louisville to victory in last year's contest at Clemson, totaling 457 yards and accounting for four TDs in a game that wasn't decided until Louisville came up one yard shy of a first down at the Clemson 3-yard line in the final seconds (Clemson won 42-36). Clemson has won all three previous meetings between the two schools, although each has been decided by six points or less.

Clemson: New Tiger QB Kelly Bryant has passed early tests (68.6% completions with one TD & one INT plus 136 yards rushing on 5.2 YPC with three TDs). However, after routing Kent State 56-3 (665 total yards), the Tigers gained just 281 yards in their 14-6 win over Auburn. So far, the key has been Clemson's defense. The Tigers' defensive front, anchored by All-America candidates Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence at tackle, plus Austin Bryant and Clelin Ferrell at end, may be the best in the country. Clemson had 11 sacks, one shy of the school record against Auburn last Saturday. The Tigers rank second nationally in total defense (118.5 YPG) and sacks and are in the top-10 in seven defensive categories. Clemson has not allowed a TD this season and held Auburn to 117 total yards (13 FDs), including 15 second-half yards! Amazingly, Clemson's allowing 4.5 PPG but that ranks just THIRD (?).

Louisville: Jackson's performance last season in “Death Valley” set up his "Heisman-push" (295 YP / 162 YR / 3 total TDs). Only Archie Griffin has won two Heismans (back-to-back in 1974 and 1975) but Jackson is not about to relinquish his Heisman without a fight after 525 yards of total offense at North Carolina. He enters this game with 771 passing yards and a 5-0 ratio plus 239 rushing yards with three TDs after just two games. Jackson has became only the second player in FBS history to have at least 300 yards passing and 100 yards rushing in consecutive games.

The pick: Clemson has won 10 consecutive games on opponents’ home fields but Louisville is still smarting from last year's loss in Death Valley. There is no doubt that Clemson's defense is special but it couldn't contain Jackson at home last year (see above). How can it do better here at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium in Louisville? "We've had three really good battles with them – had our opportunities and have come up short – so this is something that is really important to our players,” Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino told reporters. “First of all, we should have confidence that we're there and that we can play, but it is up to us to win the game.”I agree and will make Louisville my 10* CFB Game of the Year!

The set-up: SEC East rivals Tennessee and Florida square off in Gainesville at "The Swamp" on Saturday. The Vols come in 2-0 and ranked No. 23 in the latest AP poll, while the 0-1 Gators are still in the top-25, at No. 24. The Volunteers made a remarkable comeback vs. Ga. Tech on Labor Day evening in Atlanta, rallying from a two-TD deficit in the 4th quarter to send the game to OT. The Vols would win 42-41, when they squashed a Ga. Tech two-point try in the second OT. Win No. 2 came much easier, beating FCS Indiana State 42-7. The Gators canceled last Saturday's home game with Northern Colorado due to Hurricane Irma and could have really used the work. Florida opened its season with a marquee matchup against Michigan on September 2 in Arlington (Jerry's House) and were just awful. Michigan beat Florida 33-17 but the final is not the half of it! Both Florida TDs were scored on interceptions returned for a TD, meaning the Florida offense put just three points on the board. The Gators were held to 192 totals yards, gaining just 13 FDs (went 2 of 13 on 3rd down conversion attempts). The Volunteers come to Gainesville on Saturday after winning 38-28 at home last season, a victory which snapped an 11-game losing streak in the series.

Tennessee: The Vols are 2-0 but there is plenty of room for improvement, head coach Butch Jones said. "We have a lot of work to do with this football team, and that starts with our overall physicality," Jones said. "I didn't think we played to the level of physicality that's up to our standard and expectations." Joshua Dobbs in now in the NFL and it looks as Jr. Quinten Dormady is emerging as the Vols' full-time QB over Jarrett Guarantano. Dormady enters the week with a passer rating of 143.7 to go along with 415 passing yards, four TDs and an interception. The Volunteers are averaging 42.0 PPG (27th) thanks not only to the offense, but to strong work on special teams and defense. Freshman Ty Chandler returned the opening kickoff 91 yards for a touchdown last weekend, marking the team’s ninth punt- or kickoff-return TD since 2015.

Florida: QB Feleipe Franks will start against Tennessee after an up-and-down debut against Michigan. The red-shirt freshman completed 5 of 9 passes for 75 yards and showed some scrambling ability before being pulled after losing a fumble while going for a first down in the third quarter. If he can't do the job, though, coach Jim McElwain could turn to Notre Dame graduate transfer Malik Zaire (9 of 17 for 106 yards in the opener as a replacement for Franks) or even part-time 2016 starter Luke Del Rio, possibly in a two-minute situation. Regardless of which QB takes the most snaps, he could sure use more help from the running game, which gained only 11 yards on 27 carries in the opening loss to Michigan.

The pick: Sure, Florida is well-rested and anxious to redeem itself off that Michigan 'nightmare.' The Gators also have revenge from last year's 10-pont loss at Tennessee, which ended an 11-game winning streak in the series for Florida. However, the Gators are totally unsettled at QB and off the Michigan game, have little or no running game. Also, last year's win and cover by the home team (Tennessee), snapped a 6-0-1 ATS streak by the road team in this bitter rivalry. I want any points I can get. Make the Vols an 8* play.

The set-up: I wonder if Matt Rhule would like to reconsider taking the Baylor job and leaving Temple? Baylor has not only opened 0-2, the Bears have lost outright as a 33 1/2-point favorite against Liberty and then as a 12 1/2-point favorite against UT-San Antonio, both at home! Here, the Bears will take an eight-game regular season losing streak to Durham, North Carolina to face Duke. The Blue Devils took FCS foe North Carolina Central 'to the woodshed' 60-7 in their season-opener and then dismantled Northwestern 41-17 last week (out-gained the Wildcats 538-to191). This marks Duke's third straight home game and it's Homecoming!

Baylor: The Bears won 10-plus games in four of five seasons from 2011 through 2015 and opened 2016 at 6-0. Baylor entered Game 7 of the season at No. 8 when it lost 35-34 at Texas. The Bears ended the regular season on a six-game slide but then upset Boise State 31-12 in the Cactus Bowl, as about a TD underdog. Matt Ruhle was terrific at Temple, going 10-4 in 2015 and 10-3 last year, before taking the Baylor job prior to Temple losing its bowl game. Baylor is trying to recover from the sexual assault scandal that rocked the university and resulted in the firing of former head coach Art Briles in May 2016. Rhule has completely junked the Art Briles offense and Arizona transfer QB Anu Solomon has struggled, completing 43.6% in the team's first two games. Maybe there is some light at the end of the tunnel, as Baylor's pass defense yielded only 155 yards passing to UT San Antonio, after surrendering an incredible 447 yards in the opener.

Duke: The Blue Devils entered last season off four consecutive bowl appearances but stumbled to a 4-8 season. However, head coach David Cutcliffe's 10th season in Durham is off to a exciting start. Dual-threat QB Daniel Jones has completed 68.6% for 518 yards (4 TDs / 1 INT) and rushed for 127 yards (6.4 YPC) and three more TDs. Duke is averaging 50.5 PPG (10th) on 531.0 YPG (18th) plus a defense which allowed 28.2 PPG in 2016, has allowed 12.0 PPG (19th) on 174.5 YPG (7th).

The pick: Heading into this game, there can be no doubt that we have two teams heading in opposite directions. Baylor has more issues than most people realized, while Duke is simply cruising. The Blue Devils are a splendid 18-2 in their last 20 regular season non-conference games (the most successful streak in program history) but it's just hard to get may head around the fact that Duke, DUKE, is a two-TD favorite over Baylor. Rhule announced during the week that Arizona graduate transfer Solomon will be replaced by sophomore Zach Smith against Duke. Smith started four games last season and completed 116-of-196 passes for 1,526 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs. Take the points and make Baylor an 8* play.

The set-up: Illinois and South Florida are both 2-0 to open the 2017 season, although it's the lesser-known school from Tampa which is the ranked team, at No. 21 in the latest AP poll. Illinois is off a 3-9 season in Lovie Smith's first year as head coach and the Fighting Illini haven't had a winning season since their 20-14 bowl win over UCLA in 2011 allowed them to finish 7-6. Meanwhile, Willie Taggert rejuvenated the USF program, going 8-5 in 2015 and 11-2 in 2016, including an exciting 46-39 OT win over South Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl. Taggert used his success to land the Oregon job but Charlie Strong brings solid credentials to the program, despite his lack of success at Texas. USF had its game last week at Connecticut cancelled, due to complications with Hurricane Irma.

Illinois: Ilinois goes after its third straight victory to open the season and Lovie Smith will be returning to 'the scene of the crime,' as Tampa is home to the NFL’s Buccaneers, which was his previous job before landing at Illinois. The Fighting Illini opened with an unimpressive 24-21 home win over Ball State but then as a six-point home 'dog to Western Kentucky, won 20-7. Lovie's always been known as a defensive coach and through two games, Illinois is allowing 14.0 PPG (28th) on 309.5 YPG (48th). However, the team's offense is another story. Illinois averages a woeful 258.0 YPG (123rd), due to anemic passing attack with ranks 120th, averaging 126.0 YPG. In the most important offensive stat of all, points scored, Illinois is T-100th at 22.0 PPG.

USF: Taggert may be in Oregon but he left behind QB Quinton Flowers for Charlie Strong. Flowers threw for 2,812 yards with a 24-7 ratio last year, while rushing for 1,530 yards and another 18 TDs. He's not off to a Lamar Jackson-like start in 2017 (398 passing yards with 4 TDs and 1 INT plus 137 rushing yards with just 1 TD) but he has led the Bulls to 42 and 31 points. USF ranks 44th in scoring (36.5 PPG) and 51st in total yards (443.5 YPG). The defense, which allowed 31.6 PPG in 2017, is off to an excellent start, allowing 19.5 PPG (50th) on 308.0 YPG (42nd). That said, the competition has not been all that tough.

The pick: The Fighting Illini have proven to be offensively challenged so far but USF's early defensive numbers are a bit of a mirage. As for Illinois' defense, it gets a severe test here from USF, which has scored at least 30 points in 19 straight games! I believe USF will dictate this contest and with a total in the mid-50s (note: the lowest final score for an USF game in 2017 was 60 points!), the Over is an 8* play.

\The set-up: The New Mexico Lobos take their 1-1 record to Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho (home of the famous Blue Turf) to face the the 1-1 Boise State Broncos Thursday night in college football action on ESPN. New Mexico opened with a 38-14 home win over Abilene Christian but then lost 30-28 (again, at home) last Saturday to in-state rival New Mexico State. Boise State opened 2017 with a less-than-impressive 24-13 home win over Troy and then last Saturday night at Washington State, lost 47-44 in a three-OT thriller. What a contrast in both of last week's results. New Mexico trailed 30-5 into the 4th-quarter last week and its 23-point final period left them two points shy, when a two-point try failed. As for Boise, the Broncos held a 21-point lead midway through the 4th quarter but couldn’t hold onto that lead after the Cougars tied the game at 31 with just 1:44 left in regulation. Boise State then lost in three OTs.

New Mexico: The Lobos made a strong comeback but came up just short at NMSU. QB Lamar Jordan threw for a career-high 213 yards in the team's season-opening win and while no player ran for more than 65 yards, the Lobos ran for 259. However, against NMSU, Jordan was benched, as Tevaka Tuioti completed 10 of 19 passes for 151 yards and two TDs, while leading a comeback that just fell short. Jordan's starting job might be in jeopardy. Defensively, New Mexico is holding its opponents to an average of 22.0 PPG, not bad for a unit which allowed 31.5 PPG last year. However, the Lobos allowed Boise State QB Brett Rypien to throw for 391 yards and four TDs in a 49-21 loss in 2016.

Boise State: Like New Mexico, Boise State turned to its backup QB last weekend. Montell Cozart went 12-20 with 161 yards passing, two TDs plus added 72 yards and a TD on the ground, after starting QB Brett Rypien left the game early with an undisclosed injury. Although Rypien is coming off two excellent seasons, throwing for 3353 yards (20-8 ratio) as a freshman and for 3646 yards (24-8 ratio) as a sophomore, he was just 13 of 23 for 160 yards without a TD vs. Troy. He left with an early injury last week, after completing 7 of 8 passes for 76 yards. Boise State's defense allowed 433 passing yards against Washington State but only 22 rushing yards, on 27 attempts.

The pick: Brett Rypien is likely out for this game as he recovers from a head injury, so all eyes will be on Montell Cozart to take care of the ball against an opportunistic Lobos defense (Broncos got in trouble last week when the Cougars returned a fumble and an interception for TDs). The last time the Lobos came to Boise in 2015, New Mexico (a 31-point underdog) won 31-24 over a then 7-2 Broncos team. The Broncos are not the 10-3 team they were in 2016. Note that Boise Stae was 0-6 ATS at home in 2016 and barely covered against Troy as a 10 1/2-point choice in an 11-point win to open 2017. Take the points and make New Mexico a 10* play.

The set-up: The 1-0 Boise State Broncos will travel to Marin Stadium in Pullman, Washington to take on the 20th-ranked 1-0 Washington State Cougars this Saturday night. Washington State opened 24th in AP's preseason poll, just the third time in school-history that the Cougars were a top-25 team in the preseason. The team's 31-0 win over Montana State last Saturday marked the school's first season-opening win since Mike Leach took over in 2012 and the Cougars moved up to No. 20. Boise State is off a 10-3 season in 2016, one which included a 31-28 home win over Washington State. The Cougars rallied from 17 points down in the third quarter in that one and QB Luke Falk, who threw for 480 yards, had a last-second heave batted down. Boise State escaped with its 34th consecutive home win against a non-conference opponent at the time.

Boise State: The Broncos were unimpressive in last week's 24-13 at home win over Troy. QB Brett Rypien is coming off two excellent seasons, throwing for 3353 yards (20-8 ratio) as a freshman and for 3646 yards (24-8 ratio) as a sophomore. He was just 13 of 23 for 160 yards without a TD vs. Troy. He was sacked four times and threw an interception that was returned for a TD. In fact, backup QB Montell Cozart, a graduate transfer from Kansas, led the Broncos to both of their offensive TDs (he was 6 of 9 for 50 yards with one TD pass and 0 INTs plus had 36 rush yards). Boise State has had solid defenses through most of the team's recent outstanding successes and at least against Troy, looked good, holding the Trojans to 215 yards and 11 FDs.

Washington State: QBs like Sam Darnold (USC), Baker Mayfield (Okla), Lamar Jackson (Louisville) and JT Barrett (Ohio St) all get more Heisman hype but WSU's Luke Falk may be the best QB in college football. If that's not true, he may at worst, have the best numbers. He completed his first 20 passes last week and finished 33 of 39 for 311 yards with three TDs and zero INTs. I won't bore you. Check out his career stats. He'll finish his career among the very best in all of CFB history. Leach's first five defenses at Washington State have allowed 33.7 PPG, 32.5 PPG, 38.6 PPG, 27.7 PPG and 26.4 PPG. It's been a slight improvement these last two seasons and nine starters return. It's hard to judge after a home win over Montana State but the Cougars did allow just 143 yards, seven FDs and allowied Montana State to convert just 1 of 11 third downs.

The pick: Washington State is playing with a big revenge motive plus some say that there is a QB controversy brewing at Boise after HC Bryan Harsin yanked starter Rypien in favor of backup Cozart, However, Harsin reiterated earlier this week that Rypien's status as the starter has not changed. I don't see how one can trust Washington State as this much of a favorite over a Boise Stae team that hasn't been an underdog since meeting Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl after the 2014 season. BTW,...Boise State (+3) won that game, 38-30. Take the points and make Boise State an 8* play.

The set-up: No. 14 Stanford returns from a 62-7 rout of Rice (Aug. 26 in Sydney, Australia) to play No. 6 USC this Saturday at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Stanford dominated Rice on both sides of the football and had no trouble securing the victory after taking a 41-0 lead at halftime. The 4th-ranked Trojans had all they could handle against Western Michigan last Saturday but was able to pull away. USC found themselves in a battle as the game was tied at 21 all at the end of the 3rd quarter but a 14-point scoring outburst over a 36 second span late in the 4th quarter led to a 49-21 win.

Stanford: The Cardinal out-gained Rice 656-241 in total yards. RB Bryce Love had 180 rushing yards and a TD on just 13 carries (13.8 YPC) plus fellow RB Scarlett had 59 yards (7.4 TPC) plus three TDs. Stanford has to be very encouraged by the play of QB Keller Chryst, who was injured throughout spring practice. He completed 14 of 24 passes for 253 yards and 2 TDs. Chryst took over for Ryan Burns last year in late October and led Stanford to six straight wins, while throwing 10 TDs and just one INT. Stanford ranked 18th in scoring defense last year (20.4 PPG) and should once again be one of the better defenses in the country led by secondary of Justin Reid and Quenton Meeks. The Cardinal held Rice, which averaged 215 YPG passing in 2016, to just 95 passing yards.

USC: Heisman Trophy candidate QB Sam Darnold threw for 289 yards on 23 of 33 but did not throw a TD pass and was intercepted twice. RB Ronald Jones II ran for 159 yards and three TDs, as the Trojans did present a balanced offense (289 passing yards and 232 rushing yards). The Trojans allowed 24.2 PPG last year (38th) but despite returning seven starters in 2017, allowed 31 points to Western Michigan.

The pick: This is a possible preview of the 2017 Pac-12 title game. Stanford won three conference championships from 2012 to 2015 and last year 's 10-3 record marked Stanford's sixth season with 10-plus victories since 2010. USC entered 2017 as the Pac-12 favorite and Darnold as a Heisman-favorite. USC, after Darnold took over at QB, won its final nine games, capped by a thrilling 52-49 win over Penn St. in the Rose Bowl. This rivalry changed dramatically back in 2007, when Stanford, coached by Jim Harbaugh and a 41-point underdog at USC, pulled the shocking 24-23 upset. Stanford is 8-3 SU against USC since then, including three straight wins. However, USC's "close call" last week sets up as the perfect motivator for USC, which comes into this game having won 10 straight at home. This one will "make or break" USC's season. My bet says make USC a 10* play.

The set-up: The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders opened their 2017 season with a 28-6 loss at home to Vanderbilt and now visit the Syracuse Orange this Saturday at the Carrier Dome in search of their first win. Syracuse is home for a second straight weekend, romping 50-7 over Central Connecticut State to open its 2017 season. MTSU went 8-5 overall in 2016 (5-3 in C-USA play), including a 52-35 loss in the Hawaii Bowl to the home-standing Rainbow Warriors. Dino Babers used back-to-back bowl appearances at Bowling Green to get the head job at Syracuse but in his first season (2016), finished just 4-8 (2-6 in the ACC). The two schools are meeting for the first time as FBS members.

Middle Tennessee State: The Blue Raiders were shut down against Vanderbilt, falling behind 14-0 after the first quarter. MTSU didn't crack Vandy's end zone until the fourth quarter, well after the outcome had been decided. The offense was held to a modest 215 yards. QB Brent Stocksrtill, who threw for over 4000 yards (30-9 ratio) in 2015 and for 3233 yards in 2016 (31-7 ratio), was held to 166 yards with one TD and one INT. MTSU ran for only 49 yards on 26 attempts.

Syracuse: The Orange totally out-classed Central Connecticut State, opening up a 31-0 advantage at halftime, before coasting the rest of the way. The Orange had a dominant 586-167 advantage in total offense and racked up 34 FDs to Central Connecticut’s eight. QB Eric Dungey was outstanding, completing 28 of 36 passes for 328 yards with three TDs (he also ran 51 yards and two scores on the ground).

The pick: The Syracuse defense had no problem with Central Connecticut State but let's not forget that the Orange allowed 38.6 PPG. Yes, 10 starters return but the MTSU offense will be a much tougher test. The Blue Raiders were shut down by the Vandy defense but this team did average 39.7 PPG last season. The 'catch' here though is, the over/under number is currently in the mid-70s. MTSU struggled with Vandy's D (at home!), so while the Syracuse D is much 'softer,' this is a road game. Note that MTSU enters on a 3-19 run in road openers. Make the Under an 8* play.

The set-up: In-state bragging rights are at stake as the Iowa Hawkeyes visit rival Iowa State in Ames for the annual Cy-Hawk Trophy series. Both teams are coming off wins in the opening weekend, with Iowa man-handling the Wyoming Cowboys and potential NFL first-round draft pick QB Josh Allen in a 24-3 defeat in Iowa City, while Iowa State beat Northern Iowa 42-24, although it wasn't as easy convincing as the final score would indicate. This will be the 65th meeting in the series, with Iowa holding a 42-22 all-time advantage. The Hawkeyes are 18-8 all-time in games played in Ames, including winning two straight at Jack Trice Stadium.

Iowa: The Hawkeyes won their first game on defense, holding a Wyoming team which averaged 35.9 PPG on 435 YPG to three points and 233 total yards. QB Allen completed 23 of 40 for just 174 yards with two INTs. Iowa QB Stanley was only 8 of 15 for 125 yards but threw three TDs, RB Wadley ran for 116 yards.

Iowa State: Iowa State fell behind 7-0 in the 1st quarter against NIU but then twice intercepted Panther QB Dunne and returned each for TDs. Take away those two picks and the game was pretty even. Iowa State QB Jacob Park completed 77.1 percent of his passes for 271 yards with two TDs and one INT in last week's win. The running game had just 134 yards and the defense allowed 24 points on 378 yards (21 FDs).

The pick: Iowa has won its last two visits to Ames and last year in Iowa City, dominated Iowa State in a 42-3 win. The 'gap' between the two schools has not changed that dramatically since then. The Hawkeyes' D is the difference in this one with a modest pointspread. Make Iowa an 8* play.

analysis coming

The set-up: UCLA was ranked 16th in the 2016 preseason poll and opened its season at College Station with a game against unranked Texas A&M. The Aggies came away with a 31-24 upset in OT (the Bruins were favored by 3 1/2 points), a win which jump-started A&M's season. Texas A&M would open 6-0, rising to No. 6 in the AP poll before losing 33-14 at No. 1 Alabama. A&M's season unraveled from there, finishing 8-5 after a 33-28 Texas Bowl loss to Kansas State. UCLA never recovered from its season-opening loss to A&M. Things went from bad to worse when starting QB Josh Rosen suffered shoulder and leg injuries at Arizona State in a 23-20 loss. He never returned to the field of play and UCLA would finish 4-8, its first losing season under Jim More (he had led UCLA to a 37-16 record from 2012-1015). UCLA and Texas A&M meet in a season opener for the second consecutive season on Sunday, this time at the Rose Bowl. Neither team is ranked and both will be looking for strong starts after poor finishes last season (the Aggies lost four of their final five games, while the Bruins dropped six of their last seven).

Texas A&M: Former Aggies QB Trevor Knight is now trying to claim a roster spot with the NFL's Arizona Cardinals and the Aggies have yet to name a starting QB as Jake Hubenak, Nick Starkel, and Kellen Mond have continued to battle to earn the starting nod. A bigger loss is DE Myles Garrett, who was the NFL's overall No. 1 draft pick in April (Browns). He was a huge part in Rosen being pressure all game last season (Rosen was sacked five times and threw three INTs). Two key offensive performers do return, sophomore RB Trayveon Williams (1,057 yards 6.8 YPC and eight TDs) plus WR Christian Kirk for his junior year. He caught 83 passes last season (nine TDs), after making 80 receptions as a freshman. The defense returns seven starters but obviously can't replace Garrett.

UCLA: Naturally, the return of Rosen is a key for the Bruins. Expect him to be eager to play well after last year's injuries preventing him from improving on his 3,670-yard, 23-TD effort as a freshman (he garnered Heisman Trophy conversation at this time last year). A MUST for UCLA will be improving a rushing attack which averaged a pathetic 84.2 YPG on 2.9 YPC to rank 127th in the nation. In Mora's first four years in LA, his Bruin teams had averaged about 194 YPG on the ground..

The pick: It would be easy to say UCLA here, based strictly on the revenge motive. However, Mora replaced some of his top offensive coaches after last year's disappointing campaign but lo and behold, Noel Mazzone (former OC at UCLA) and former backup QB Jerry Neuheisel, are both now employed by A&M. Kevin Sumlin opens his sixth season at A&M and he owns quite a record against non-SEC teams in his tenure, going 18-2 SU. I'll take any points available and make A&M a 10* play.

Florida State: The Seminoles will not have RB Dalvin Cook, who was taken in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft by the Minnesota Vikings. However, QB Deondre Francois is back, after throwing for 3,350 yards and 20 TDs as a red-shirt freshman. Replacing Cook (FSU's all-time leading rusher) will not be easy but junior Jacques Patrick and freshman Cam Akers are talented. However, the OL needs to improve over last year’s bunch is FSU wants to be in the national title discussion. FSU's defense allowed 25.0 PPG last season, just the second time in the last seven years that an FSU defense had allowed more than 20 points. The good news is that nine regulars return on defense plus will have star safety Derwin James back at full strength after he played just two games in 2016 because of a knee injury.

The set-up: The Louisville Cardinals, ranked 16th in the AP's preseason poll, will open the 2017 season against the Purdue Boilermakers, led by new head coach Jeff Brohm. The game will be played at at Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis), the home of the Colts. It's only fitting that Brohm's first game as Purdue's head coach comes against his alma mater, where he was Louisville's starting QB for two seasons in the early 1990s.

Louisville: Bobby Petrino can coach (forget about the off-field stuff) and his Cardinals were 9-1 through 10 games last season (lone loss at Clemson by six points) and ranked No. 3, before imploding. However, a 36-10 loss at Houston was followed by an embarrassing 41-38 loss at home to Kentucky (as a nearly four-TD favorite) to end the regular season. Louisville was then man-handled by LSU, 29-9 in the Citrus Bowl. However, the team's late-season collapse didn't prevent QB Lamar Jackson from winning the Heisman (it shouldn't have). Jackson passed for 3,543 yards and 30 TDs last year while rushing for 1,571 yards and another 21 scores! Jackson lost a few key contributors but he's so talented, don't expect too much of a drop-off in 2017. That said, don't expect a second straight Heisman, either.

Purdue. Brohm come to Purdue from Western Ky, where he turned the the Hilltoppers into the nation's highest-scoring team at 45.5 PPG in 2016. David Blough is Purdue's returning starter at QB but Brohm says he likes three of his QBs and would not be afraid to use all of them with Blough struggling with a sore shoulder (he suffered a strained right shoulder during an August 12 scrimmage). To be competitive, Purdue needs to score, as its defense ranked 117th in the nation last year, allowing 38.3 PPG.

The pick: Brohm was an asistant at Western Ky when Petrino was hired as the Hilltoppers head coach. Petrino has said he is thrilled that Brohm landed a Power-5 conference coaching position. He expects his former assistant will turn around a Purdue program that has gone just 9-39 the past four seasons with only three victories in Big Ten conference play. However, that may be wishful thinking right now. Louisville has the best QB on the field (in the country?) but did lose a lot of key players, including most of the offensive line. It may take Louisville a few games to jell. The Boilermakers have lost nine of their last 10 non-home games and are a near-4 TD underdog here, so expect a loss. However, don't expect Petrino to run up the score and thisov er/under number is too high. Make Louisville/Purdue a 10* Under play.

The set-up: Two CFB superpowers open Saturday in this game at "Jerry's House" in Arlington, Texas, with No. 11 Michigan taking on No. 17 Florida. This marks the first time these two legendary programs have met in regular season, although Michigan has won all three bowl meetings, including a 41-7 beat-down of an injury-riddled Florida offense in the Citrus Bowl following the 2015 season.

Michigan: Jim Harbaugh took over Michigan in 2015, inheriting a team which was just 5-7 the previous year. His first team went 10-3, including that previously-mentioned bowl win over Florida and then last year's team again went 10-3. However, that doesn't tell the entire story. Michigan opened 9-0 and was ranked No. 2 in the nation when it lost 14-13 at Iowa. An unimpressive 20-10 win over Indiana followed and then Michigan lost a controversial double-OT at Columbus to Ohio State, 30-27. The Wolverines capped its season with a 33-32 loss to FSU in the Orange Bowl. Harbaugh's an intense coach and will be looking to quickly establish his team after last year's poor finish (three losses in its last four games). Harbaugh can easily rub people the wrong way. He refused to release his team's playing roster until Wednesday, declined to formally announce his quarterback and then went overboard by insinuating Florida coach Jim McElwain was the one playing games by initially not revealing his team's signal-caller. Harbaugh can play all the "head games" he wants but he needs to replace 10 starters off last year unit, which was one of the nation's best (allowed 14.1 PPG on just over 262 yards per). I'm still not quite sure who will be Michigan's starting QB for most of this year.

Florida: Jim McElwain begins his third season with the Gators, after going 10-4 and 9-4 in 2015 and 2016. He is dealing with two key issues in this contest. The big story is the suspension of seven players, including 2016 leading receiver and special teams stud Antonio Callaway (54 catches and 721 receiving yards with four TDs in 2016) and defensive lineman Keivonnis Davis, for misuse of school funds. The other question mark is who will start under center. RS freshman Feleipe Franks started the spring game for the Gators and played well enough to be considered for the starting job, while Luke Del Rio is recovering from off-season shoulder surgery and then there’s the wild card in Notre Dame transfer Malik Zaire. In the end, McElwain named Franks as the starter on Wednesday. Franks threw for 2,766 yards and 35 TDs during his senior season at Wakulla High School in Crawfordville, Fla. The defense took a big on hit, with only five starters returning from last season and don't expect the Gators to match last year's numbers of 16.8 PPG on about 293 YPG.

The pick: I'm no fan of either of Michigan's two QBs, Wilton Speight or John O’Korn and I believe Michigan's preseason ranking of No. 11 is based more on Harbuagh's notoriety. After all, Michigan had a school-record 11 players selected in the 2017 NFL Draft, meaning there are many new faces in new roles all over the field. Let me add that Florida has won 27 consecutive season openers, the best streak in the nation. The Gators will likely remember that recent Citrus Bowl loss to the Wolverines but after careful consideration I prefer to make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: The Ball State Cardinals will visit Memorial Stadium in Champaign-Urbana to take on the Fighting Illini of Illinois in Saturday college football action. The Illini are coming off a 3-9 season and last finished with a winning year back in 2011 (7-6). Ball State is off a 4-8 season and has won just 12 combined games the last three seasons, after going to back-to-back bowl games in 2012 (10-3) and 2013 (9-4). The two schools have met just once before, back in 2007 with Illinois winning 28-17 at home.

Ball State: The Cardinals return eight starters, although Jack Milas is replacing Riley Neal as the starting QB. Milas has 314 career pass attempts but the bulk of those reps came during the 2014 season, as he attempted only 38 passes in 2016 ((Neal attempted 394 in 2016 but had just 13 TDs and 12 INTs). While Milas gets back in the swing of things, he can rely on RB James Gilbert, who had 1,220 yards last season (5.3 YPC) and 12 TDs. The defense has just four returning starters but maybe that's a good thing, after allowing 35.8 and 30.1 PPG the last two seasons.

Illinois: Lovie's Smith first season at Illinois hardly went well, as the Illini were 3-9 (5-7 ATS) and just 2-7 in Big Ten play. There was a QB 'battle' in the spring and Smith has named inexperienced junior Chayce Crouch the starting QB. This year's offense can't be as bad as last year's, which averaged a woeful 19.7 PPG, getting held to 10 or less points four times last year. Crouch is more of a dual-threat and RB Kendrick Foster returns after rushing for 720 yards (5.7 YPC) and seven TDs. More will be expected from WRs Malik Turner and Sam Mays (especially Turner, who caught 46 balls with six TDs). Lovie must improve his defense, as the team allowed 31.9 PPG in Smith's first season, more than a TD higher than the 2015 unit did (23.9).

The pick: This line opened has high as minus-11 in some places but it's down to about a TD as of Friday afternoon. Not sure what the attraction of Ball State is, as the Cardinals are on a 3-18 SU run in true road openers. What's more, Ball State is 3-26-1 SU vs. current Big Ten teams with all three of those wins coming against Indiana (how the little school from Muncie, Indian has loved upsetting the boys from Bloomington!). Meanwhile, Lovie needs a win here, as high-scoring and dangerous Western Ky is up next, before a road game at ranked USF. Note that Indiana has won 19 straight home openers and the average margin of victory has been almost four TDs (26 points)! Ball State is a team the Illini can handle. Make Illinois an 8* play.

The set-up: The Washington Huskies will make the long cross-country trip to the East Coast on Friday night, where they will take on Rutgers in New Brunswick. Chris Peterson 'hit gold' in his third season at Seattle, leading the Huskies into the CFP, before they lost 24-7 to Alabama. Washington would finish 12-2 and has opened the 2017 season ranked No. 8 in the AP's preseason poll. Chris Ash, a key assistant under Urban Meyer at Ohio State, knew taking the Rutgers job wouldn’t be a 'walk in the park' but it's doubtful he anticipated the bottom falling out to the extent it did last season. Rutgers 2016 season opened with a 48-13 loss at Washington (Huskies led 48-3 into the fourth quarter) and after two home wins over Howard and New Mexico, Rutgers would go on to lose all nine games in Big Ten play to finish 2-10. I'm not sure Ash and Rutgers are all too happy to see Washington again, in the team's 2017 opener, even if it is in New Brunswick.

Washington: The Huskies' defense allowed just 17.7 PPG in 2016 (on 316.1 YPG) but lost five starters to the NFL. CBs Kevin King (Packers) and Sidney Jones (Eagles) plus S Budda Baker (Cardinals) all went in the top-43. Clearly, the Husky secondary needs some rebuilding. Washington also lost speedy WR John Ross (81 catches and 17 TDs), as he was chosen ninth overall by the Bengals. However, the Huskies are still deep in proven play-makers. That starts will QB Jake Browning, who threw for 3430 yards with 43 TDs and just nine INTs in 2016, helping the Huskies roll up a school-record 585 points (41.8 PPG on 456.9 YPG). RB Gaskin is off back-to-back 1300-yard rushing seasons. Ross is gone at WR but Dante Pettis and Chico McClatcher will keep Rutgers' secondary busy. Pettis is also an outstanding kick-returner, who has five career punt return TDs, one off the Pac-12 record held by California's DeSean Jackson.

Rutgers: Former Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill is the new OC at Rutgers and he gets a new QB in Louisville graduate Kyle Bolin and word is, he's fitting in well. Dangerous WR/KR Janarion Grant is back after missing the last eight games of last season with an ankle injury (when he went down, the Rutgers offense went 'south!'). Rutgers also owns a deep stable of RBs, the best of whom is Robert Martin. The defense was often over-matched last season (allowed 37.5 PPG and just over 450 YPG) but eight starters do return. With Kill on board to take over the offense, Ash (a DC under Meyer), will devote most of his energy on that defense.

The pick: It should be noted that Rutgers' defense suffered as a result of the team's offensive ineptitude last season, being forced to stay on the field far too long and in terrible field position. With a much better QB situation and the return of play-maker Grant, that should change in 2017. Can it change enough to compete with a team like Washington? If the question is, will there be an upset, the answer is no. However, while Rutgers has virtually no chance of winning, staying within this HUGE number is more than realistic. Make Rutgers a 10* play.

The set-up: The Buffalo Bulls kick off their 2017 season with a road trip to face the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Head coach HC Lance Leipold led the Bulls to a 5-7 season in his first year at the school but the Bulls clearly regressed in 2016, falling to 2-10, which included a season-opening home loss to Albany (as a three-TD favorite!). It would seem that there is no way to go but up in 2017. Minnesota has been to five consecutive bowl games, after back-to-back 3-9 seasons in 2010 and 2011. P.J. Fleck, who worked a minor miracle at Western Michigan, represents a 180-degree turn from previous “old school” coaches Tracy Claeys and Jerry Kill in Minneapolis. Fleck now moves to a bigger stage with his “row the boat” attitude.

Buffalo: Buffalo was terrible on both sides of the ball last season, ranking 126th in averaging 16.5 PPG, while allowing and 32.0 PPG. The good news is, 14 starters return (plus both kickers) but the Bulls do have a long way to go. QB Tyree Jackson returns and at 6-7, 245-lbs, he can be an imposing presence. It sure will help that four OL starters are also back. Eight starters return from LY's pourus defense. Is it a "glass half full" outlook or, “same-old, same-old?”

Minnesota: Fleck used his ingenuity on the field and his youthful enthusiasm on the recruiting trail to raise the Broncos to new heights. As noted, Minnesota's been to five straight bowl games and last year's nine wins marks the second-most wins in a season since the school entered the Big 10 back in 1953 (the 2003 team went 10-3). This is NOT a "re-build." The first hurdle for Fleck will be finding an answer at QB. Will it be RS senior Conor Rhoda for one season, 6-5 RS soph QB Demry Croft, or juco Neil McLaurin for a few seasons, or one of five freshmen QBs for down the road? RBs Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks combined for 1808 rushing yards and 21 TDs last season, the top two TEs are back and the left side of the OL is a wall with T Donnell Greene and G Garrison Wright. The Gophers ranked 22nd in points allowed (22.1 per) in 2016 but just five starers return. The key returnees are LBs Jonathan Celestin (2nd with 80 tackles LY) and Blake Cashman (led the team with 7½ sacks), plus safeties Duke McGhee and Antoine Winfield Jr.

The pick: I'll note that Buffalo is on a 2-17 SU run in road openers, with seven straight losses by an average margin of 19 PPG. However, please note that the line is this contest opened with Buffalo about a four-TD favorite. Sure, Minnesota was 6-1 SU last season at home but note that the Gophers were 0-5 ATS as a home favorite against FBS opponents in 2016. Take those 'monster' points and make Buffalo a 10* play.

The set-up: The Oregon State Beavers, coming off a 4-8 season, will play the Colorado State Rams (7-6 in 2016) at Fort Collins, in the Ram's new on-campus stadium (yet to be named). It's rare that a Pac-12 team visits a MWC school and this marks Oregon State's first-ever visit to Fort Collins, as the two schools meet for just the third time ever (last meeting was in Corvallis back in 1975!).

Oregon State: The Beavers are off a 4-8 season but that was an improvement from the 2-10 record the school posted in head coach Gary Anderson's first year at Corvallis (2015). However, the former Utah State and Wisconsin head coach is feeling quite optimistic heading going into 2017. The Beavers finished their season with impressive wins against Arizona and Oregon. The season-ending win over the University of Oregon, which allowed OSU to finish ahead of the Ducks in the Pac-12 North, provided a singular, long-lasting pleasure in Corvallis, which has helped fuel this year's optimism. Utah State transfer QB Darell Garretson started the first six games of 2016 for the Beavers, going 2-4 SU in a mixed performance (50.0% with three TDs and four INTs), before suffering a fractured ankle. That forced Marcus Maryion into action, with the then-sophomore also going 2-4 SU, but with a much stronger arm. He completed 59.4% with 10 TDs and five INTs. He threw five TD passes in the win over Arizona and had one TD pass plus 81 yards rushing in the win over Oregon). That said, Jake Luton, a JUCO transfer, has been named the starter for opening day. Oregon State will rely heavily on RB Ryan Nall, who finished last season with 13 TDs and 951 rushing yards. To compete in the Pac-12, OSU will have to improve offensively, after averaging 26.2 PPG (105th in the nation). The defense has allowed more than 30.5 PPG (last year's average) in four consecutive seasons, as well as an average of about 440.0 YPG in that span, as well.

Colorado State: The Rams have gone 7-6 in each of Mike Bobo's first two years at CSU, with both years ending in a bowl loss. The Rams finished the season strong winning four of their last five regular season games. The offense averaged 35.5 PPG on 462.5 (217.8 rushing and 244.7 passing). Dual threat QB Nick Stevens (64.2% with 19 TD passes) completed 75% in four straight games last year and accounted for five scores in 61-50 loss to Idaho in the Potato Bowl. WR Michael Gallup (76 catches for 1,272 receiving yards and 14 TDs) is Stevens' top weapon plus RBs Dalyn Dawkins (919 rush yards) and Izzy Matthews (734 yards & 13 TDs) are both back. The defense returns eight starters from a unit that allowed 30.4 PPG (81st) on 419.2 YPG (69th).

The pick: The Rams have won their last four home openers, as part of a current 20-3 run in home openers plus Oregon State visits Fort Collins looking to end a steak of 13 consecutive road losses. However, the modest pointspread alerts us to that fact that Oregon State is no longer a pushover. I'm a big fan of Gary Andersen and it was in his third year at Utah State that he got that program turned around. 2017 is his third year in Corvallis and I expect Oregon Sate to spring the minor upset, jump-staring what could be a 3-0 start for the Beavers in 2017 (home games with Portland St. and Minnesota are up next). Make OSU a 10* play.

The pick: Watson rolled up 478 yards and directed the Tigers to 40 points in last season's national championship loss to the Tide and he's back for more, specifically a ring. However, I can't help but believe that Saban's defense will be just as anxious to prove that it is much better than it showed against Clemson last Januray. Saban was also highly disappointed with the offensive showing against the Huskies (Kiffin played it "too cute by half") and he told Kiffin to get an early start with his new gig (head coach of the powerful FAU Owls), promoting offensive analyst Steve Sarkisian to offensive coordinator. It's a bold move but you want to doubt Saban at this stage! Make Alabama a 10* play.

The set-up: Florida lost 54-16 in the SEC championship game against Alabama, after losing 31-13 to Florida State in its regular season finale. The Gators take an 8-4 record into Monday's Outback Bowl at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla, up against the 8-4 Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa was punished 41-14 at Penn State but then earned a "signature" 14-13 win over then-No.3 Michigan on Nov 12, beat Illinois 28-0 and had a regular season-ending 40-10 rout over then-No. 16 Nebraska.

The set-up: The 12-1 Washington Huskies earned the 4th and final CFP playoff spot and their reward is a Peach Bowl matchup with 13-3 Alabama, the nation's top-ranked season every week since opening the year as No. 1 in all polls. Alabama takes 25-game winning streak into the national semifinals, as Nick Saban looks to win his fifth national championship in 10 seasons as the Tide's head coach. The Huskies have ascended quickly under third-year coach Chris Petersen and are enjoying their best season since the 1991 Don James-coached unbeaten squad shared the national championship with Miami.

Washington: QB Jake Browning completed 63.2 percent of his passes for 3,280 yards with 42 TDs and just seven INTs. RB Myles Gaskin is over 1,300 yards for a second straight season (1,339 on 5.9 YPC with 14 TDs) and his backup Lavon Coleman sports a 7.8 YPC average while rushing for 836 yards and seven TDs for a rushing attack averaging 210.0 YPG (36th). WR Ross totaled 76 receptions for 1,122 yards and 17 TDs for the Huskies, who average 44.5 PPG (4th). The defense allows 17.2 PPG (7th) on 316.2 YPG (11th) and features standout junior free safety Budda Baker (65 tackles, two interceptions) and senior outside linebacker Psalm Wooching (team-high six sacks). However, it remains without two of its top players in senior outside linebacker Joe Mathis (foot) and junior middle linebacker Azeem Victor (leg).

Alabama: The superlatives surrounding the Crimson Tide are almost too many to mention. I'll start with a defense led by DEJonathan Allen, who won the Nagurski Trophy as the national defensive player of the year. The unit is No. 1 in points allowed (11.8 PPG), rushing yards (63.8 YPG) and total yards (248.2 YPG). Those numbers go just fine for a well-balanced offense averaging 247.2 YPG on the ground (5.7 YPC) and 224.1 YPG through the air, scoring 40.5 PPG (13th). Alabama QB Jalen Hurts is a multi-faceted player who runs nearly as well as he throws. Browning, a sophomore, passed for 3,280 yards and a school-record 42 touchdowns, while Hurts accounted for 34 scores (22 passing, 12 rushing) and is striving to join Oklahoma's Jamelle Holieway (1985) as the only true freshmen QBs to lead a team to a national title. "I'm a firm believer in age being nothing but a number," the 18-year-old Hurts told reporters. "And I feel like if you step up to any situation and you're able to play your game, be confident, have the poise you need to have, you'll be alright."

The pick: It seems like a foregone conclusion that Alabama is headed for the championship game and if the numbers provided above weren't enough, the Crimson Tide totaled 14 non-offensive TDs, matching Southern Mississippi (2011) for the most in FBS since 1996. However, while the Pac 12 didn't garner much respect this season, I will not overlook what Chris Peterson has done at Washington in just his third season. He also led Boise State to a bowl game in each of his eight seasons there, although he did not coach in that final one, leaving for the Washington job. Few will ever forget his 2006 Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma (43-42 in OT) or his 2009 Fiesta Bowl win (17-10) over then 12-0 TCU, completing a 14-0 season. No upset here but I'm taking the points and making Washington a 10* play.

The set-up: As good as the LSU defense is, I do not expect them to contain Jackson and Louisville (remember, Kentucky scored 41 points on 581 yards!) plus LSU won't miss Leonard Fournette all that much with Derrius Guice filling in (he has 1,249 yards and 14 TDs at 8.0 YPC). The Louisville defense is not in the class of Alabama's or Florida's, the two teams which beat LSU under Orgeron. In LSU's five wins after Miles was fired, the Tigers averaged 43.4 PPG. Make the Over an 8* play in this one.

The set-up: North Carolina went 8-4 and heads to El Paso for a Sun Bowl meeting with 9-3 Stanford.The biggest storyline heading into the game was Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey announcing on Twitter that he will sit out the Sun Bowl to focus on his NFL draft preparation (will this be trend). Stanford comes in with momentum (on a five-game winning streak) while North Carolina lost two of its final three, beating only the The Citadel.

North Carolina: Junior QB Mitch Trubisky is an emerging NFL prospect who threw for 3,468 yards while completing 68.9% with 28 TD passes and just four INTs. The running game is below average, gaining 148.2 YPG (99th). Overall, North Carolina averages 33.1 PPG (40th) and its defense holds opponents to 24.9 PPG (45th). The season was a roller-coaster, with wins over Florida State, Miami and Pittsburgh but it ended with disappointing late-season losses to Duke and North Carolina State. “We weren’t able to overcome all the emotions we created for ourselves,” coach Larry Fedora told reporters. “There were a few games down the stretch that we didn’t play up to our capability. We didn’t make the ordinary plays that we needed to make.

The pick:North Carolina has really been shown up in its last two bowl appearnces, losing 40-21 to Rutgers in 2014 and 49-38 to Baylor, last year. Carolina has not ben physical enough and it showed signs of wearing down defensively in losing to both Duke (allowed 467 yards) and NC St (492 yards in two of its last three games (41-7 win over The Citadel hardly counts). Stanford loves to play smashmouth FB and Chyrst has brought another dimension to the offense with his solid play. Led by Trubisky, the North Carolina offense will give Stanford's D all it can handle. The Over is an 8* play.

TCU: "Our standards have been very high at TCU, and being 6-6 is not something that we're that happy about," Patterson said. "But we're glad that we got back to a bowl game. I think that helps us, especially playing against a great opponent." TCU has only 13 seniors on this year's roster, one of the reasons they've fallen off dramatically from going 12-1 and 11-2 the [previous two years (note: TCU was 47-5 from 2008-11). The offense is well balanced, passing for 278.3 YPG and rushing for 196.7 YPG while averaging 31.7 PPG. QB Hill has thrown for 3,062 yards but with a modest 15 TDs and 13 INTs. He left the Horned Frogs' regular-season finale with Kansas State with a foot injury but returned to practice and is "running around," Patterson said. He's expected to play. TCU does not have a standout RB with Hicks the best of the group, running for 954 yards on 5.1 YPC with 12 TDs. The defense is no better than average, allowing 27.8 PPG (61st).

The pick: The transition season from the Mark Richt era to Kirby Smart did not go as planned. The offense simply never came together, with a deep and talented RB corps underachieving. QB Jacob Eason showed promise for the future but he's still a work in progress. TCU's 6-6 record speaks for itself but the Horned Frogs lost three games by six points or less, including two in overtime. They closed the regular season with losses in four of their final six contests. However, Patterson's teams have won eight of their last 10 bowl games and in this about pick'em game, I want the much more experienced head coach. TCU is a 10* play.

The pick: USF is obviously the more explosive team and likely the way better team. However, the coaching transition for USF may not be quite as smooth as other situations, as several assistants are on their way to Oregon and those that remain are unlikely to be kept on by Charlie Strong. That means the awkwardness of some of the guys in charge of game planning having are also shopping their resumes and thinking about other matters at this rather busy hiring/firing period. South Carolina has notable wins over Tennessee (24-21), Vanderbilt (13-10) and Missouri (31-21) plus also defeated East Carolina of the AAC, 20-15. The Gamecocks are bowl-eligible for the 12th time in 13 seasons and have won their last four bowl games and only Marshall’s five-game winning streak in bowl games is longer. Look for teh South Carolina defense to keep the Gamecocks in this one making the Under a 10* play.

The pick: After losing to Air Force for the third consecutive year and failing to make it into the conference championship for the second straight season, the Broncos are looking at a potential bowl win over a Big 12 team. "We're trying to finish this season the right way and take everything we've learned and apply it," coach Bryan Harsin told reporters. "And go out there and be a much better football team than we were in the last game."  However, one wonders if a win over a Baylor team in a total collapse will mean much? Also, one has to wonder if a vote were to be taken now, just how many Baylor players and coaches would say yes to continuing this VERY awkward campaign? The Under is a 10* play.

The pick: Preparing for Leach's "Air Raid" offense is tough enough under normal circumstances but with the distraction of players being suspended plus a possible bowl boycott costing the team a few practices, prep has been made even more difficult. I'll also note that Leach’s playbook is something that is foreign to what the Minnesota defense has faced in Big 10 Ten play. However, I believe motivation will be high on the Minnesota side ("win one for their teammates!") plus the Gophers' bowl experience is a big plua (5th straight appearance!). Minnesota's first-year head coach Tracy Claeys failed to record a single marquee victory during the regular season but he may get one here in San Diego. Take the big points and make Minnesota an 8* play.

The pick: It would be easy to say "under" in this one but "not so fast!" Both teams showed late-season success against notable opponents and it seems to have perked up the motivation for Vanderbilt and North Carolina State going into this game. With Vandy in particular, the Commodores averaged 13.2 points in going 1-5 in their first six SEC games but totaled 83 points in the final two games. RB Ralph Webb piled up 237 yards and five TDs on 41 carries while QB Kyle Shurmur threw for a career-high 416 yards in the win over Tennessee and threw four TD passes in the last two games.This is one of teh lowe over/under numbers of all the bowls and the Over is a 10* play.

The pick: Miami's Ragland was superb as a game manager but he won’t bring anything that an SEC defense has not seen before. As for Miami's solid defensive numbers, this a YUGE step up in class and how does one ignore the fact that Miami allowed 45 points to Iowa, the lone Power-5 team it played this season. Nick Fitzgerald figures to be too much for the Miami defense to handle, as Mississippi State’s offense stepped it up in the second half of the season, averaging more than 45 points in the five games that were not against No. 1 Alabama. Lay the points and make Miss. St. an 8* play.

The pick: Not sure how much Stockstill's return means, as the team scored an amazing 115 points in the season's last two games without him. He may be rusty and his return could be a negative. Hawaii is 6-7 but remember that last bowl season, all three sub-.500 teams which made the bowl field won and covered their games. Why not Hawaii as well? After all, they get the bonus of playing on their home field. Make Hawaii an 8* play.

The pick: These are two good defensive teams but the reasonably low over/number on the game makes the over very tempting. Ohio has not had much success in bowl games under Solich and in the team's last five bowl appearances, those finals have averaged 58.4 PPG. Troy QB Bandon Silvers can spread the field and find open receivers against a defense that did not see this style much. The Over is a 10* play.

The set-up: Western Kentucky (10-3) won the SBC championship game 58-44 over La. Tech and heads to its third straight bowl game (the Boca Raton Bowl) and will meet 8-4 Memphis of C-USA, which is also making a third consecutive bowl appearance. Memphis: The Tigers had a tough task replacing not only head coach Justin Fuente (who took the Va. Tech job) and QB Paxton Lynch (a first-round pick of the Denver Broncos) but they barely missed a beat behind new coach Mike Norvell and QB Riley Ferguson. Memphis won three of the last four games to improve its bowl position, including knocking off then-No. 20 Houston 48-44 in the regular-season finale. Ferguson completed 63.8% fro 3,e326 yards with 28 TDs and nine INTs. His to target was WR Miller, whoc caught 84 passes for 1,283 yards with 11 TDs. The running game does not have a standout back but three players topped 460 yards for a unit which averaged 166.9 YPG to rank 78th. The Tigers average 39.5 PPG (17th) on 461.8 YPG o(32nd) and just ask Houston how good the Tigers can be, as they rolled 555 yards of total offense in the win over the Cougars. Ferguson saved his best performance for last, passing for 409 yards with four TDs and no interceptions against Houston. Tigers freshman Tony Pollard was named the AAC's Special Teams Player of the Year after ranking third in the nation with 993 kickoff return yards and tied for third with two kickoff return TDs. Western Kentucky: The Hilltoppers closed out the season on a seven-game winning streak, capped by a 58-44 victory over Louisiana Tech in the C-USA championship game. Head coach Jeff Brohm led the Hilltoppers to their second straight C-USA championship this year but was hired by Purdue on Dec. 5 and defensive coordinator Nick Holt takes over in the interim for the bowl game. Junior Mike White, a transfer from South Florida, completed 67.4 percent of his pass attempts for 4,027 yards in earning C-USA Newcomer of the Year honors in his first season for the Hilltoppers. WR Taywon Taylor had 89 receptions for 1,586 yards and 16 TDs and fellow wideout Nicholas Norris had 73 for 1,253 yards and 13 scores. RB Anthony Wales finished with 1376 yards rushing (6.8 YPC) with 26 TDs (24 rushing). The Hilltoppers are second in the nation in scoring (45.1 PPG) on 517.4 YPG (7th). The pick: The Hilltoppers haven’t had much time off since its C-USA title-game win (played Dec. 3) and with Jeff Brohm leaving for Purdue and DC Nick Holt being elevated to head coach for this game, it might be a good thing this game is played sooner than later. Memphis could be a little flat off its upset of Houston and while the Tigers offense is very good, Western Ky’s is “as good as it gets!” The Hilltoppers averaged 52.1 PPG over their last nine contests. Lay the points and make Western Kentucky a 10* play.

The set-up: The New Mexico Bowl features a 6-6 Texas-San Antonio team appearing in its first-ever bowl game against an 8-4 New Mexico team in its 12th bowl game and in this New Mexico Bowl for the fourth straight time. The Lobos get to play on their home field, just like in 2006, 2007 and 2015. The Roadrunners, of C-USA, beat Charlotte 33-14 in their regular-season finale to earn a bowl invitation in their sixth season of play, matching the FBS earliest-bowl-bid record shared by South Alabama (2014) and Georgia State (2015). Meanwhile, the Lobos of the MWC will be making their second straight and fourth overall New Mexico Bowl appearance in the 11-year history of this post-season contest.    Texas-San Antonio: UTSA not only won its final game of the regular season but five of its last eight games to finish second in C-USA's West Division. Head coach Frank Wilson is in his first year with UTSA and knows more than a little about potent rushing attacks, as he was the running backs coach at LSU under Les Miles for five years before landing in San Antonio. The Roadrunners play a physical brand of football with the goal of dominating in the trenches, hallmarks of Wilson's LSU teams. The Roadrunners rely on a potent one-two RB combo in Jarveon Williams, the Roadrunners' all-time leading rusher, and Jalen Rhodes. Williams has 775 yards (4.1 YPC & 8 TDs) and Rhodes 756 yards (5.3 YPC & 9 TDs). QB Strum is no better than average, completing 58.2% for 2,052 yards with 18 TDs and five INTs. The defense allows 28.3 PPG. New Mexico: While UTSA is a good rushing team, New Mexico owns the nation’s top rushing offense, averaging 360.9 YPG. Bob Davie’s team worries little about the pass, averaging 109.3 YPG through the air, to rank 127th of 128 teams. Talk about 1-2 punches, Gipson has run for 1,209 yards (9.2 YPC & 12 TDs) and Owens for 1,084 yards (8.1 YPC & 7 TDs). Those two have the flashy numbers but McQuarley (588 yards) has a team-high 16 rushing TDs! Lamar Jordan and Austin Apodaca have shared time at QB but the Jordan is the more potent rushing threat. Defensively, New Mexico struggles, allowing 32.4 PPG. The pick: New Mexico  has gone 5-1 SU (just 3-3 AT) at home, averaging 44.5 points and 445.8 rushing yards per game on its home field but watch out for the Roadrunners.  UTSA hung with Colorado St. on the road during the regular season (lost 23-14)and at home vs. Arizona St, losing just 32-28 as three-TD underdogs. BTW...The Lobos’ 2007 New Mexico Bowl win over Nevada stands as the school’s only bowl victory since 1961. New Mexico will be happy with any kind of a win. Take the points and make UTSA a 10* play.

The set-up: San Diego State closed last season on a 10-game winning streak and sat at 9-1 (6-0 in MWC play) when it visited Laramie to play Wyoming back on Nov. 19. The Aztecs had won 19 of 20 games entering that contest and after a back and forth contest, scored on the game’s final play of regulation. SDSU chose to go for two and the win but lost 34-33. Then came an embarrassing 63-31 home los to Colorado St. but the Aztecs get a chance for redemption, as well as a second straight MWC title, Saturday night back in Laramie. Wyoming comes in 8-4 in head coach Craig Bohl’s third season. The Cowboys went 4-8 in his first season and a woeful 2-10 last year, so it’s been quite a turnaround in 2016! San Diego State:  The Aztecs have a mediocre QB in Christian Chapman, who has 19 TDs and just five INTs but also has just 1,781 passing yards. However, RB Donnel Pumphrey has 1,908 yards this year (6.3 YPC and 15 TDs) and with two games left in his career, should wind up No. 3 on the all-time NCAA career rushing list, behind only Tony Dorsett and Ron Dayne. Pumphrey’s backfield partnet, Penny, has 878 rushing yards on 8.0 YPC with nine TDs. SDSU averages 275.9 YPG on the ground to rank 7th. The defense let the Aztecs down in it’s the season’s last two games (34 points to Wyoming and 63 to Colorado St.) but the unit checks in 19th in points allowed (20.8 per)  on 318.9 YPG (11th). Wyoming: The Cowboys thought they would have to beat the Lobos last weekend but ‘backed in’ to the division title when Boise St. lost 27-20 at Air Force on the Friday after Thanksgiving. Therefore, Wyoming’s 56-35 loss at New Mexico last Saturday didn’t cost them an appearance in this game. QB Allen threw for 2,738 yards (23 TDs and 11 INTs) this season and led by RB Brian Hill (1,674 yards on 5.5 YPC with 21 TDs), the running game averages 218.9 YPG. However, while the offense scores 38.2 PPG, the defense pretty much gives it all back, allowing 35.5 PPG. The pick: San Diego State won last year’s MWC championship on its home field but doing so here in Laramie figures to be another story. After all, Wyoming is 6-1 SU and 5-1 ATS and still comes in as about a TD underdog. I believe SDSU is the better team and both teams rely on their running games and I’m looking for a much lower scoring game than we saw on this field back on Nov. 19th. The Under is an 8* play.

The set-up: Baylor opened the season ranked 23rd in the AP’s preseason poll while West Va. was unranked. The Bears opened 6-0 and rose as high as No. 9 in the AP poll but enters this game (its season-finale) on a six-game losing streak, needing a win to avoid a .500 finish (not likely, as more than a two-TD underdog). Meanwhile, the Mountaineers have been a surprise in the Big 12 here in 2016, entering this contest 9-2, including 6-2 in Big 12 play. West Virginia can do no better than 3rd in the Big 12 but the Mountaineers are 14th in the latest AP poll and 16th in the latest CFP rankings.

Baylor: The Bears comes in off an embarrassing 54-35 loss to a Texas Tech team that finished the season 5-7. It’s been a nightmarish year for the Bears, one which began with the firing of head coach Art Briles and a sexual assault scandal, featuring some sexual or physical assaults involving football players since 2011. That said, the school announced it still planned to play in a bowl game. “Our intent, at this time, is to accept a bowl bid for our student-athletes who have worked so hard to earn it over the course of this season," Baylor athletic director Mack Rhoades said in a statement provided to ESPN. "Our focus, as it has been throughout the season, is on our student-athletes and trying to finish strong against a great West Virginia team this weekend in Morgantown." 64-year-old interim head coach Jim Grobe announced on Monday that he will not return to coach after this season. “Honestly, football needs a fresh start," Grobe said. "All the other sports here are in great shape right now, and I would expect the next coach to have football competing for championships in a hurry. Whoever gets this job is going to be very fortunate."

West Virginia: The Mountaineers still have much to play for. A victory and West Virginia can win 10 games for just the ninth time in school history and  if the Mountaineers can also pick up a victory in a bowl game, Dana Holgorsen's team would match the school record with an 11-win season. Not bad for a team picked to finish seventh in the Big 12's preseason media poll. If that isn't enough to get West Virginia fired up, there's the 62-38 beating the Mountaineers took last year in Waco by the Bears! Defensive coordinator Tony Gibson told The Dominion Post, “We've had Dec. 3, 2016, marked down for a long time.” QB Skyler Howard has been under the radar nationally in a QB-rich Big 12 but he’s thrown for 3,083 yards with 24 TDs and 10 INTs, while rushing for eight scores. West Va. averages 33.4 PPG on 514.6 YPG (10th) and its defense is allowing a respectable 23.6 PPG (37th).

The pick: No doubt West Va. deserves to be this big of a favorite but while we haven’t seen it since Baylor’s losing streak began back on Oct. 29th with a 35-34 loss to Texas, the Bears have the talent to play with West Va. I’ll take the big points and make Baylor a 10* play.

The set-up: No. 20 Navy (9-2, 7-1) won the West Division of the AAC and will play the Temple Owls (9-3, 7-1), who won the AAC East, in the AAC championship game. The Midshipmen are playing for a conference title for the first time in the 136-year history of their program (Navy spent 134 seasons as an independent before joining the AAC last year), while the Owls have advanced to the AAC conference championship game for the second consecutive season (lost at Houston last year), riding a six game-winning streak. This game could have even more significance if Western Michigan was not able to beat Ohio U. Friday night in the MAC title game. Temple: The Owls enter this contest No. 3 in total defense, only Alabama and Michigan are better, allowing 273.8 YPG (3rd) and rank 10th in allowing 17.8 PPG. The offense is not bad (32.9 PPG) with QB Walker having his best season with 2,700 passing yards (18 TDs and 12 INTs). Thomas and Armstead are quite a RB duo, with Thomas gaining 856 yards (4.7 YPC / 12 TDs plus six TD receptions) and Armstead running for 842 yards on 6.1 YPC and 13 TDs. Walker has a bad ankle but he’s expected to play. That said, head coach Matt Rhule told reporters that backup Logan Marchi "has to be ready to play.” Navy: Tago Smith was the team's starting QB to open the year but was lost in Navy’s first game. Will Worth has stepped in to rush fo 1,181 yards and 25 TDs, leading the nation's second-best rushing unit at 342.0 YPG on 6.0 YPC. The Navy defense is suspect, allowing 30.1 (76th). However, with the offense controlling the ball and the clock, some od Navy’s defensive woes are covered up. Navy enters averaging 41.7 PPG, after scoring 141 points in its last two games! The pick: Temple comes in on a six-game winning streak and incredibly, an 11-game ATS winning streak, with covers in every game since it lost its season opener at home to Army, 28-13. However, that result is very relevant here, as Temple was helpless against Army’s option, as it ran for 329 yards! No reason to think Temple will have any more luck here against an even better option attack, run by the superb, Will Worth. Navy gets this game on its home field (Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium), where the Midshipmen will be going for a 15th straight home win. That’s the bet. Navy is a 10* play. 

The set-up: Washington (11-1) is No. 4 in the current CFP rankings but knows a win over No. 9 Colorado (10-2) does bot guarantee the Huskies a spot in CFB’s ‘Final 4.’ There was a lot of talk last Tuesday (when the rankings were released) about Washington’s pathetic non-conference strength of schedule, with wins over Rutgers (2-10 overall and 0-9 in the Big Ten), Idaho of the Sun Belt (7-4 overall) and over Portland St, an FCS school. The Buffs have zero ‘Final 4 ‘ aspirations but have to be thrilled with the team's worst to first in the Pac-12 South turnaround in 2016. Colorado: Mike MacIntyre’s Colorado team set a conference record with its seven-game conference improvement, going from 1-8 in 2015 to 8-1 in 2016. MacIntyre was an easy choice for Pac-12 coach of the year, as the Buffaloes had gone 2-25 in Pac-12 games in his first three seasons at Boulder. QB Sefo Liufau missed three starts due to a midseason ankle injury but still ranks fourth in Pac-12 total offense (263.3 YPG), completing 64.6 percent with 11 TDs and 3 INTs. RB Phillip Lindsay (1,136 yards / 5.4 YPC / 15 TDs) leads a rushing attack averaging 201.1 YPG (45th). Colorado is averaging 34.8 PPG (38th) but the big improvement has been on defense, as Colorado ranks 12th in total yards allowed (323.0 per) and 13th in points allowed (18.8 per). In McIntyre’s first three seasons, the Buffs had allowed 38.3, 39.0 and 27.5 PPG on about 450.0 YPG! Washington: Chris Petersen’s third season at Washington has been the ‘charm!’ Sophomore QB Jake Browning is third in the country in passing TDs (40), fourth in passing efficiency (181.6 rating) and ninth in yards per completion (14.78). He’s completed 65.0% with just seven INTs. He’s complemented nicely by a rushing attack averaging 205.4 YPG (40th) on 5.5 YPC, led by RB Myles Gaskin (1,180 yards on 6.0 YPC with 10 TDs). Washington is the conference’s highest-scoring team at 44.8 PPG (3rd in the nation) and has scored 31 or more in all of its 11 wins. Four Huskies appear on the All-Pac-12 first-team defense, which allows 17.8 PPG (11th) on 328.9 YPG (17th). The pick: The Buffaloes can match the Huskies in the trenches but Washington owns fairly significant edges in speed and depth. Washington know how to “make things happen” as well as any team in the nation (save Alabama), with 21 offensive TDs of either 40-plus yards or TDs scored by their defense or special teams. Washington has its sights on a spot in the four-team College Football Playoff and may just get one. However, what I like even better here, is a high scoring game. The Over is a 10* play.

The set-up: 3-8 Utah State concludes a very disappointing season with a Saturday night game in Provo against 7-4 BYU, which is headed to a bowl game for the 12th consecutive year. Utah State center Austin Stephens will make his 39th straight start in the last game of his career and like the other 24 seniors in the program, he wants to taste victory one more time before leaving. However, it’s Senior Day for BYU and the Cougars figure to be primed to send senior QB Taysom Hill and senior RB Jamaal Williams out in style. Utah State: The Aggies will see their own bowl streak of five in a row end here in 2016. The offense averages a so-so 25.2 PPG with the defense allowing 29.5. Utah State has seen much success in its season, as it sits in last-place in the Mountain West’s Mountain Division at 1-7 (only school with a losing record). The Aggies had lost three games in a row before beating Fresno State at home on Oct. 22, 38-20 but Matt Wells’ team has fallen in four straight games since, losing to San Diego State, Wyoming and New Mexico before it was taken down 38-37 by Nevada last weekend, which rallied from a 13-point deficit in the final seven minutes and scored the game-winning TD with five seconds remaining. BYU was 4-4 after eight games, winning by 2, 2, 17 and seven points (in OT), while losing by 1, 3, 3 and 1 point. QB Hill has passed for 2,22 yards with 11 TDs and run for 554 yards with eight scores. RB Williams has run for 1,034 yards and 10 TDs, topping 1,000 yards for the second time in his four years at BYU. The defense has been solid all season, allowing just 20.3 PPG, to rank 18th. The pick: BYU leads the all-time series over Utah State, 47-35-3, after winning last year’s matchup 51-28 in Logan. Yes, Utah State hasn’t won in more than month (Oct 22nd, to be exact), but as noted the vast majority of BYU games have been close. Take the big points with Utah State and make the Aggies a 10* play.

The set-up: UCLA opened the season ranked 16th in the AP’s preseason poll but now wrap up the year with this game at Cal, just 4-7 overall, including 2-6 in Pac 12 play. Sonny Dykes’ first two seasons at Cal resulted in 1-11 and 5-7 records but led by Jared Goff, who would become the No.1 overall pick in the NFL’s 2016 draft, the Golden Bears finished 8-5  in 2016 after a 55-36 win over Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl. This season was expected to be a rebuilding year but after a 52-49 double-OT win over Oregon on Oct 21, the Bears stood at 4-3. However, Cal enters this season finale on a four-game slide and like UCLA, is 4-7, including 2-6 in Pac 12 action. UCLA: The Bruins opened the season with a young hot-shot QB in sophomore Josh Rosen but he’s missed five games because of a shoulder injury and has been done for quite some time now. Fifth-year senior Mike Fafaul will be starting his fifth game in place of Rosen on Saturday. Head coach Jim Mora has praised Fafual saying, "He played behind Brett (Hundley), and then Josh got the job, and he has hung in there. “He's everything that you want in a quarterback in terms of studying the game and it being serious to him. It's just great." Still, Fafual has just 11 TD passes (five came in one game) and 10 INTs on the season and gets no help from a UCLA running game which ranks 127th out of 128 FBS teams (84.3 YPG on 2.9 YPC). California: Goff may have been the NFL’s No. 1 pick but don’t blame QB Davis Webb (a Texas Tech transfer) for Cal’s woes in 2016. He’s completed 61.2% for 3,994 yards (Cal ranks 3rd in passing at 364.1 YPG) with 35 TDs and 12 INTs. Cal’s offense ranks 22nd in scoring (37.2 PPG) but its defense allows 45.5 PPG (128th out of 128 FBS schools), and 541.8 YPG to rank 127th! The pick:  The urge here is to go over but note that UCLA has been a huge underachiever all season on the road, going 1-4 SU and averaging a poor 18.4 PPG. UCLA likely left all it had in the tank on the season in the Rose Bowl last Saturday, in losing 36-14 to USC. With this high total, the under is a 10* play. 

Then set-up: Boston College may be just 1-6 in ACC play it’s 5-6 overall, meaning a win here at Wake Forest would give the team a 6-6 record, making them bowl-eligible. That would be quite a turnaround after the Eagles were just 3-9 in 2015. Wake Forest already owns six wins, coming in at 6-5 overall, including 3-4 in ACC play. "We're at six wins and we're going to try like crazy to get seven," Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson told the media. "We still have a lot to play for and I'm really proud of our guys." Boston College: The Eagles broke a 12-game ACC losing streak with a 21-14 win at NC State back on Oct 29 but that’s the team's lone ACC win here in both the 2015 and 2016 seasons, combined. Boston College had hoped QB Patrick Towles, a Kentucky transfer, would spark an offense which averaged just 17.2 PPG but that hasn’t been the case. Towles has completed just 51.8% for 1,505 yards with nine TDs and six INTs. The running game averages 151.6 YPG (95th) on 3.5 YPC, as the team's leading rusher is Hilliman, who has only 455 yards (3.1 YPC). BC comes into this game averaging 19.3 PPG (123rd) on 299.3 YPG, which ranks 127th out of 128 FBS teams. BC’s defense ranks 10th in total defense (312.4 YPG) but the Eagles are allowing 25.5 PPG (49th). Wake Forest: When the Demon Deacons have run the ball well they’ve won. When they have not, they’ve lost. RBs Colburn (528 yards) and Carney (475 yards) join QB Wolford (454 yards) combine eto run for 147.3 YPG (101st) on just 3.6 YPC. However, Wake Forest has averaged 202 rushing yards in the team’s six wins, compared to just 80.8 YPG on the ground in its five losses. Boston College allows just 102.6 YPG on the ground (7th-best), so Wolford may have]e to got to the air, although his numbers are no better than Towles, completing 56.7% for 1,454 with five TDs and seven INTs. Wake’s defense allows more yards than BC’s (388.5 YPG to rank 51st) but gives up fewer points at 22.3 PPG, to rank 31st. The pick: Only two of the last 13 meetings between BC and Wake have been decided by more than 10 points, with BC averaging 21.8 points and Wake 20.8 PPG. This “super-low” total makes the Over a 10* play.

The set-up: The 2016 meeting of Michigan and Ohio State marks the 113th of this legendary series. No matter what the records are, the annual border battle is intense for the players and fans. Bragging rights are a big deal, particularly in Ohio. This game means everything to the players. However, this year’s meeting has more than just bragging rights at stake. This will mark the 11th time in series history, and the first since the two teams met as the nation’s No. 1 and No. 2 ranked teams back in 2006, that both are in the top-5. Second-ranked Ohio State (10-1, 7-1 Big Ten) and No. 3 Michigan (10-1, 7-1) square off in Columbus and if Michigan wins, the Wolverines are headed to the Big Ten championship game. If Ohio State wins, the Buckeyes will need Penn State to lose at home to Michigan State, in order to play in that championship game. However, since Ohio State is currently No. 2 in the CFP rankings, it seems unlikely that with a win over Michigan, Ohio State would be any real danger not not being one of CFB’s “Final 4.” Michigan: The big question surrounding this game is a murky QB situation for Michigan. Starter Wilton Speight missed the 20-10 win against Indiana last Saturday with a shoulder injury and John O'Korn (who replaced him) have split the first-team reps in practice this week. O’Korn made 16 starts with Houston before transferring to Ann Arbor after his sophomore season but struggled mightily in his first career start for Michigan last weekend, finishing 7-of-16 for 59 yards, which was the lowest passing output by a Michigan QB since 2001. However, Speight wasn’t all that much better the week before in Michigan’s 14-13 loss at Iowa, completing 11 of 26 for 107 yards without a TD and one INT. Michigan averages 235.3 YPG (19th) on the ground, with four players gaining 400-plus yards, led by De'Veon Smith (750 yards on 5.2 YPC with 10 TDs), who was named the Big Ten's co-offensive Player of the Week after racking up a career-high 158 yards to go along with two TDs on Senior Day against Indiana. There are plenty of question marks offensively but we can be sure Harbaugh’s defense will show up, as the Wolverines rank 1st in points allowed ((10.9 per) and 1st in total defense (245.6 YPG). Ohio State: Head coach Urban Meyer declared after last Saturday's narrow 17-16 escape at Michigan State, "It's officially rivalry week. Our eyes are forward. Let's go." Ohio State is led by J.T. Barrett at QB, who has passed for 2,304 yards (63.4% completions with 24 TDs and 4 INTs) and run for 722 yards (4.4 YPC and 8 TDs). Ohio State runs for 263.1 YPG (98th) and is fifth in the nation in points scored (43.8 PPG). Mike Weber ran for 111 yards in the 17-16 win against Michigan State to become the third freshman in program history to rush for 1,000 yards (1,046 on 6.3 YPC with 8 TDs). No one tops Michigan’s D this year but Ohio State comes close, allowing 13.0 PPG (4th) on 283.8 YPG (5th). The pick: Ohio State has dominated the series in recent years, winning 11 of the last 12 meetings. The only Michigan victory in that span came in 2011 after Jim Tressel resigned as Ohio State coach in the wake of a scandal and Luke Fickell took over for one year before Meyer arrived. In Harbaugh's first year in 2015, the Wolverines didn't fare so well, losing 42-13 at home to the Buckeyes. However, Harbaugh's arrival has definitely injected some extra pizazz into the game. It’s expected that the Meyer-Harbaugh coaching matchup is reminiscent of the Woody Hayes-Bo Schembechler era when the series was in its heyday in the 1970s. Just can’t pass up this many points with the nation’s No.1 defense Michigan is an 8* play. 

The set-up: The Arizona–Arizona State football rivalry, sometimes known as the Duel in the Desert, sees the winner receive the Territorial Cup. It is not one of the longest college football rivalries but the Territorial Cup was created for the 1899 champion between schools in Arizona and the NCAA has certified it as the oldest rivalry trophy in college football. The Territorial Cup did not change hands as a regular part of the competition until 2001. The rivalry between the two schools continued after 1899, a semi-regular event until becoming an annual event from 1946 onwards. Arizona leads the all-time series, 48-40-1. This year’s game holds little significance outside the state of Arizona, with ASU coming in on a five-game losing streak (5-6) and Arizona on an eight-game slide (2-9.) Arizona State: The Sun Devils won last season’s meeting 52-37 in Tempe and a win Friday at Tucson would get ASU to 6-6, becoming bowl-eligible. ASU averages 33.2 PPG with Wilkins at QB (60.9% for just 1957 yards with 9 TDs and 8 INTs) and a sub-par running game, which averages 132.9 YPG (113th). Remember RB Kevin Ballage, who had eight TDs (seven rushing) in ASU’s 68-55 win over Texas Tech back on Sept ? He has just 523 rushing yards on the season with 13 rushing TDs and has not caught a single TD pass since that Texas Tech game. Then there is the ASU defense, which allows 38.4 PPG (119th) on 515.6 YPG (125th). Arizona: The Wildcats’ QB play has been shaky all season and it was subpar yet again in last Saturday’s 42-17 loss to Oregon State. Brandon Dawkins completed 10-of-17 passes for 106 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while Anu Solomon connected on 6-of-11 throws for 82 yards. Arizona is scoring just 21.9 PPG (113th) which makes for tough sledding when one’s defense allows 38.6 PPG (120th) on 467.3 YPG (113th). Dawkins has the ability to create with his legs (team-leading 761 yards rushing on 6.4 YPC and 8 TDs) and the Wildcats need him to do just that against the Sun Devils. Rich Rod won’t ask either QB to throw too much, as he won’t want to risk multiple interceptions giving Arizona State favorable field position. The pick: I realize bowl eligibility is on the line here for ASU, as the Sun Devils have been to five straight bowls, including all four of Graham’s previous seasons at Tempe. However, Arizona has not won a game since Sept. 17 against Hawaii and a loss here would see this team become just the second team in program history to finish winless in conference play, joining the 1957 squad that went 0-4 in the Border Conference. That’s some pretty heavy motivation in a rivalry game. Take the points and make Arizona a 10* play.

The set-up: 9-2 Nebraska (6-2 in the Big Ten West) goes into its final game of the regular season on Friday at Iowa (7-4, 5-3 in Big Ten) with several questions to be answered. The first is the QB situation. Starter Tommy Armstrong Jr. missed last Saturday's 28-7 win over Maryland with a hamstring injury and backup Ryker Fyfe took his place. However, he broke a bone in his left wrist and had surgery on Sunday to repair it. Armstrong is listed as probable and Fyfe, questionable. Nebraska is also playing for a chance at a Big Ten West Division co-championship and an outside shot at the conference championship game next week in Indianapolis. To get there, the Cornhuskers need to take care of business against Iowa and hope for a Minnesota upset of Wisconsin, leaving them alone atop the standings. Iowa is not in the conference mix but will he headed to a 14th bowl game in the last 16 years under Kirk Ferentz. Nebraska: Armstrong is expected to be able to play Friday but if and Fyfe can’t go, the Cornhuskers would be forced to turn to third-string sophomore Zack Darlington, who was once a top-15 dual-threat QB in high school before making the transition to receiver last spring. This year’s team is not a vintage Nebraska offense, averaging 186.3 YPG (55th) on the ground and 28.3 PPG overall (69th). The defense has played well, though, allowing 21.2 PPG (22nd) on 345.5 YPG (21st). RB Terrell Newby has run for 707 of his team-high 825 yards during conference play - including 364 in the fourth quarter alone - scored a career-high three touchdowns last weekend and is 175 yards shy of turning in the 36th 1,000-yard rushing season in school history. Iowa: Iowa’s offense has struggled most of the year, averaging a modest 25.5 PPG (87th) on a very poor 326.5 YPG, which ranks 121st out of 128 FBS schools. However, Ferentz’s teams always play excellent defense and this year is no different, with the Hawkeyes allowing just 18.6 PPG (15th). Iowa seems to have found itself the last two weeks, relying on a shut-down defense and a run-heavy offense. The Hawkeyes claimed their first Big Ten shutout since 2009 with a 28-0 victory at Illinois last Saturday, which followed the team’s stunning 14-13 upset of Michigan, handing the Wolverines their first and only loss of the season. In that two-game span, the Iowa defense has held its two opponents to just 398 yards, 24 FDs and 13 points. Iowa’s offense has run the ball 49 times in each of those games, churning out an average of 213.0 YPG. The pick: Iowa’s had highs and lows here at home this season, where the Hawkeyes are just 3-3 . The high being the upset of Michigan and the low being a loss at home to North Dakota St, an FCS school. A Nebraska win would give them at worst, a West Division co-championship but for the Cornhuskers to go to the Big Ten title game, they would Minnesota to upset Wisconsin in Madison, where the Badgers are two-TD favorites. However, a 10-win season would surely mean a lot to head coach Mike Riley, as it would be a significant turnaround from the 6-7 record of his first season in Lincoln (2015). The Hawkeyes won 28-20 in Lincoln to cap a perfect 12-0 regular season last year but Iowa is playing nowhere near that level this year. Turnabout is fair play. Make Nebraska a 10* play.

The set-up: LSU opened the season No. 5 in the AP’s preseason poll but a season-opening 16-14 loss to Wisconsin in Green Bay pretty much set the tone for the season. The Tigers fired Les Miles after a 2-2 start and while LSU won the first three games under interim head coach Ed Orgeron (averaging 41.7 PPG), the Tigers have lost two of their last three, getting shut out 10-0 by Alabama and losing 16-10 to Florida (both losses came at home!). Texas A&M began the year unranked but upset No. 15 UCLA 31-24 in OT in its season opener. When the first CFP rankings were released back on Nov. 1, the 7-1 Aggies were No. 4. However, at 8-3, Texas A&M was not in the latest CFP rankings (released Nov. 22). LSU: Orgeron was expected to spark the Tigers offense and as noted above, LSU averaged 41.7 PPG in his first three games. However, in getting shut out at home by Alabama, the Tigers were held to just 125 total yards and six FDs. Then last Saturday vs. Florida, Orgeron watched his team score just one TD in five goal-to-go chances on Saturday, including a goal-line stand that clinched the setback. "We shot ourselves in the foot and had a lot of opportunities in the red zone," Orgeron told reporters. "We didn't convert any points. Two turnovers were really costly in the football game. Guys fought the whole way, gave us a chance to win the football game." Now star RB Leonard Fournette, who was hobbled by an ankle injury that has plagued him on and off all season and was limited to 40 yards on 12 carries Saturday, is expected to miss Thursday night. Texas A&M: The Aggies are still a possibility for a Sugar Bowl berth, which would go to the second-highest ranked team from the SEC. A&M would finish in second place in the SEC West with a win on Thursday and an Auburn loss against Alabama. Texas A&M lost starting QB Trevor Knight to a shoulder injury in the loss to Mississippi on Nov. 12 and is still getting used to Jake Hubenak at QB. He threw for 248 yards and a touchdown in a 23-10 win against UTSA and has completed 58 of 97 this year for 598 yards with six TDs and two INTs. He will be helped by a running game averaging 247.5 YPG on 5.7 YPC. RB Williams (956 yards on 7.0 YPC) will go over 1,000 yards for the season in this one. The pick: LSU has nothing to play for, other than the Tigers could be playing for the well-liked Ed Orgeron's job. Texas A&M has averaged 35.1 PPG on the season but its defense has allowed 33.8 PPG over its last four SEC games. The Over is an 8* play.

The set-up: Central Michigan opened the year 3-0, including a controversial win at now-No. 10 Oklahoma St (in the AP poll). CMU got to 5-2 with a triple-OT win at Northern Illinois back on Oct. 15 but the Chippewas then lost three in a row while allowing 31.7 PPG. However, the Chippewas snapped their three-game losing streak (and became bowl-eligible at 6-5) with a 27-20 win over Ohio last Tuesday, which also prevented the Bobcats from clinching a trip to the conference title game. Eastern Michigan is also 6-5 but its record is a bigger deal. After all, EMU hadn’t won more than two games in any season since 2011, so second-year head coach Chris Creighton has to be quite pleased with the turnaround (Eagles were 1-11 in his first season, last year). Central Michigan:  The 2016 season appeared pretty promising but the Chippewas will travel to Ypsilanti with a 6-5 overall record and a 3-4 MAC mark but still have a chance to reach seven wins for the third straight season. CMU’s Cooper Rush entered 2016 as one of the MAC’s top QBs and is closing in on the conference record for most career passing yards. Rush has passed for 12,387 yards over the last four years and needs just over 800 yards (518) to pass former Chippewa Dan LeFevour for the No. 1 spot in the MAC record book. Rush has thrown for 3,043 yards with 23 TDs and 12 INTs ( he had 3,848 yards with a 25-11 ratio in 2015) but his completion percentage has dropped from 66.3 (2015) to 61.2 in 2016. CMU averages 28.3 PPG (70th) and will face an EMU defense allowing 31.2 PPG (89th). Eastern Michigan: Becoming bowl-eligible for the first time since 1995 is an accomplishment in itself for Eastern Michigan and coach Chris Creighton. However, EMU’s only pervious bowl appearance came way back in 1987. A 6-6 record may not get the Eagles into a bowl game in 2016. Truth be told, the Eagles should already have a seventh win. They led Northern Illinois 21-0 at halftime last week, only to allow 24 unanswered points on their way to a 31-24 OT loss. RB Ian Eriksen ran for 171 yards and two TDs (giving him 280 rushing yards the last two games with 4 TDs) but QB Brogan Roback threw two interceptions in one of his worst performances of the season. Roback is no Rush to be sure, throwing for a modest 2,039 yards and completing 57.8% (his 14-5 ratio is OK but just 14 TD passes in eight games is nothing to brag about). The pick: MAC schools don’t receive a lot of respect, so having seven wins is sure a much bigger appeal than a 6-6 team would be to a bowl committee. The Eagles have not defeated Central Michigan since 2011, so there’s plenty of motivation on the sideline for Creighton and this program but John Bonamego’s CMU squad will surely want to add to the program’s dominance over its in-state rival and a seventh win all but guarantees a third straight bowl trip for the Chippewas, as well as a fourth trip in five season. Central Michigan is a 10* play.  

The set-up: Both UCLA (16th) and USC (20th) opened in the AP’s top-25 preseason poll but both lost their season-openers, UCLA 31-24 in OT at Texas A&M and USC 52-6 to No. 1 Alabama at Arlington. Four games into the 2016 season UCLA was 2-2 and USC 1-3. However, the two Los Angeles-based rivals enter their annual showdown (Battle for the Victory Bell) in vastly different positions. UCLA ended its four-game slide with a 38-24 home win over Oregon State last Saturday and enters this contest just 4-6. Meanwhile, the Trojans won in Seattle last Saturday 26-13 over previously unbeaten and No. 4 Washington. USC’s six-game winning streak is its longest since 2008 and its 6-2 record leaves them a half-game back of 6-1 Colorado in the Pac-12 South, although the Buffs own the tiebreaker due to a 20-10 win over the Trojans. USC: The Trojan’s season turned around when redshirt freshman Sam Darnold was made the team's starting QB in USC’s fourth game at Utah. USC lost that game in Salt Lake City 31-27 but Darnold has led them to six wins in a row since. Darnold completed 22 of 33 passes for 287 yards, the most allowed by the Huskies this season, and two TDs in USC’s upset last Saturday. For the season, he’s completing 68.1% with 22 TDs and just six INTs. The USC running game has also done well, averaging 201.1 YPG (38th) on 5.4 YPC. USC’s defense allowed 25.7 PPG last year on 401.0 YPG but has cut that to 22.5 PPG (32nd) on 363.4 YPG (34th) here in 2016. Another area where USC has made great strides this year is wh=ith its special teams, as the Trojans lead the conference in punt return average and kickoff coverage. UCLA was the team which opened with the young hot-shot QB in sophomore Josh Rosen but he’s missed four games because of a shoulder injury and won't return this season. Fifth-year senior Mike Fafaul will be starting his fourth game in place of Rosen on Saturday, coming off a solid game in the win over Oregon St, completing 25 of 47 passes for 281 yards but without a TD and one INT. Head coach Jim Mora has praised Fafual saying, "He played behind Brett (Hundley), and then Josh got the job, and he has hung in there. “He's everything that you want in a quarterback in terms of studying the game and it being serious to him. It's just great." Still, Fafual has nine TDs (five came in one game) and 10 INTs on the season and gets no help from a UCLA running game which ranks 127th out of 128 Division I teams (87.2 YPG on 2.9 YPC). The pick: The Trojans are on a roll and have won 13 of the past 17 games against UCLA. However, last Saturday’s win at Washington sets up a huge let down situation in this long-time rivalry. UCLA may not win but I’m taking almost two TDs and making the Bruins a 10* play.

The set-up: It’s been a roller coaster ride for Arkansas its last four games, beating Ole Miss 34-30, losing 56-3 to Auburn, beating Florida 31-10 and then losing 38-10 last week to LSU. The 6-4 Razorback now visit Starkville to take on Mississippi St, a team which beat them last year 51-50, a game in which the teams combined for over 1,100 yards of total offense. The Bulldogs are just 4-6 in 2016 though, after losing 51-3 last Saturday to No. 1 Alabama. Arkansas: QB Austin Allen has thrown for 2,501 yards and 20 TDs (against 10 INTs) and was the SEC’s pass efficiency leader at midseason but he’s been inconsistent since suffering a knee injury in the Auburn loss back on Oct. 22. He’s completing 60.5% on the season but just 54.0% over his last three games, throwing just two TD passes with four INTs (he had 18 TD passes through seven games!). RB Rawleigh Williams III surpassed the 1,000-yard rushing mark last week for the Razorbacks (1,004 yards on 5.2 YPC) but he had just 22 yards against Auburn and 49 last week vs. LSU. Speaking of running the football, the Arkansas defense has plenty of soul-searching to do after allowing LSU to run for 390 yards last Saturday, on 6.3 YPC! Mississippi State: The Bulldogs miss Dak Prescott, who someone told me is doing just fine with the Dallas Cowboys. Sophomore QB Nick Fitzgerald is a dual-threat like Dak and already has 854 yards rushing on 5.8 YPC with eight TDs. However, while Dak completed 66.2% with a 29-5 ratio, Fitzgerald is completing only 53.3% with a 16-10 ratio. The Bulldogs average 214.2 YPG on the ground (30th) but neither Fitzgerald nor the running game was efficient against the Crimson Tide, failing to score a TD in nine trips into Alabama territory. The defense allows 31.9 PPG (92nd) on 434.6 YPG (84th). The pick: All four of Arkansas’ losses have come to ranked teams, No. 16 Auburn, No. 1 Alabama, No. 22 Texas A&M and No. 14 LSU. As for Miss. St, the Bulldogs are playing their first unranked opponent since Oct. 1, when they defeated Alcorn State (an FCS school). Miss. St. has won four straight meetings with the last three decided by seven points or less. Another close game is expected but unlike last year’s shootout, the Under is a 10* play in this one. 

The set-up: The Blue Raiders were 6-2 heading into their home game against UTSA two weeks ago, but the team's star QB, also the head coach’s son, was lost for the remainder of the regular season after breaking his right collarbone (non-throwing arm). Rick Stockstill had thrown for 2,801 yards with 27 TDs and just five INTs and his efforts still leave MTSU 11th in the nation in passing, averaging 329.2 PPG.  However, the Blue Raider lost 45-25 to UTSA and then got creamed last week 42-17 at Marshall. Charlotte is off a tough home loss last week, as Rice won its first C-USA game of the season after being down 21-0 midway through the second quartet at Charlotte, before pulling out a 22-21 victory. Middle Tennessee State: The Blue Raiders actually led 17-14 at the half but fell apart in the second half at Marshall last week, as the Thundering Herd used four TD passes by QB Chase Litton and 109 rushing yards from Anthony Anderson to claim a 42-17 win. Redshirt freshman John Urzua is now the new No. 1 for the remainder of the season. He was 25 of 37 through the air for 220 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions at Marshall last week. The good news is that RB  I’Tavius Mathers is one of C-USA’s top offensive threats, rushing for 1,190 yards on 6.4 YPC with 13 TDs, while also hauling in 54 catches for another three TDs. Charlotte: Charlotte is an improved team and had won three of its previous four games before last week’s loss. The offense looks much different with Klugh at quarterback, as he is able to create something out of nothing on broken plays. However, while the North Carolina A&T transfer is a very good runner ( 383 yards and five TDs), he leaves a lot to be desired as a passer. Last week’s loss at home loss to Rice (blew a 21-0 lead) was tough to swallow. It was even more troubling considering that the week before that, the 49ers rallied on the road for a 38-27 win behind the play of quarterback Hasaan Klugh, which was the young program’s best win since transitioning into FBS. However, the 49ers essentially gave back that good win with their collapse at home against Rice. The pick: The Blue Raiders are trying to get used to life after Stockstill but RB Mathers is coming off of his worse performance of the season, so expect a big bounce back effort from one of the best players in C-USA. Let’s not forget that in last year’s meeting between these two teams, the Blue Raiders won 73-14, as the 49ers had four first-half turnovers and seven overall. That gap has not been closed enough for this not to be a play on MTSU at this price. MTSU is an 8* play.

The set-up: Kansas State is 5-4 and Baylor 6-3, with both teams 3-3 in Big-12 play. The Wildcats are about where they were expected to be at this time of the year, looking to earn a sixth win for bowl eligibly (KSU finished 6-7 in 2015, after losing to Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl). However, much more was expected of Baylor, which opened 23rd in the AP’s preseason poll. The Bears opened 6-0 in 2016 but the team's 45-24 loss at Oklahoma last Saturday was the Bears’ third in a row and after 60 straight weeks in the AP top-25, the Bears were unranked when Sunday’s latest poll came out (Baylor hasn’t been part of the CFP rankings for the last two weeks). Kansas State: The Wildcats will likely get their sixth win at home against Kansas on Nov. 26 but it would be awful sweet for Bill Snyder’s team to win here at Baylor. Kansas St. has recorded three straight conference games with 200 or more rushing yards, its longest streak since 2003, and had 345 yards on the ground in a 43-37 loss at Oklahoma State two weeks ago. Junior QB Jesse Ertz averages 70 yards rushing per game, best among quarterbacks in the Big 12, and has had two straight 100-yard games. Kansas St. ranks 36th with 209.6 YPG on the ground. However, Ertz’s completed only 56.8% of his passes for a modest 1,165 yards (KSU ranks 117th with 156.8 YPG passing) with just 7 TDs and 4 INTs. The good news is that Kansas State’s defense leads the Big 12 in total D (392.8 YPG / 57th nationally) and rushing defense (110.9 YPG / 12th nationally). Baylor: QB Seth Russell suffered a season-ending ankle fracture in last week's 45-24 loss at Oklahoma, so true freshman Zach Smith will be making his first start. Smith stepped in and hit six of 15 passes for 144 yards, including a 62-yard TD pass and also ran for a 1-yard score, after Russell went down in the third quarter last Saturday. "I feel good about Zach," acting Baylor head coach Jim Grobe told the Waco Tribune. "When it was his turn to go, he didn't panic. He seemed really calm but focused. I was just impressed with the maturity he showed taking the field in a tough situation. Hopefully this week he'll get more work than he typically does. He’s just the kind of guy that you want." Senior RB Shock Linwood (school record 4,056 career rushing yards) will be back after serving a one-game suspension for an attitude issue. "I really don't have a lot of patience when guys aren't being good teammate kind of deals"  Grobe said -- but running back Terence Williams (team best 708 yards, 8 TDs) is iffy with a tendon issue. The pick: It looks as if Baylor has hit rock-bottom and Kansas State is 19-9 SU under head coach Bill Snyder when coming off an in-season bye. However, Baylor is 33-4 SU at home since 2011, best in the Big 12 and third-best nationally during that span.What’s more, Baylor has won five of the last six meetings including four in a row by margins of 28, 10, 11 and seven points, as favorites of 12 1/2, 17, 7 and 17 points. Baylor as a home dog? The Bears are a 10* play.

The set-up: UNLV is 3-6 and heading for another season without going ‘bowling,’ something Las Vegas fans have grown accustomed to. The Rebels have been to just four bowls in school history, including two since 2000. However, UNLV did Boise State a YUGE favor last Saturday, with a 69-66 triple-overtime home victory over Wyoming. That result revived the Broncos’ chances in the Mountain Division of the MWC conference. The 9-1 Broncos, who are currently the highest ranked Group of 5 school in the CFP rankings (at No. 20) but they are far from a lock to play in the MWC title game, tied with New Mexico and Wyoming at 5-1 UNLV: UNLV rolled up 653 yards of total offense, the second most in school history, and just pummeled the Cowboys rush D, running for 401 yards on 6.3 YPC.  Junior QB Kurt Palandech made his first start of the season and excelled by accounting for four TDs (three passing, one rushing) while establishing career highs for passing yardage (252) and rushing yardage (157). He will get the start again here but UNLV’s lone pass-catching threat, Devonte Boyd (45 receptions for 746 yards and four TDs), was lost for the season with a broken left arm. Nobody else on the Rebels has more than 13 receptions or reached the modest total of 200 receiving yards. Boise State: The Broncos have a quality QB in Brett Rypien (65.0% / 2,916 yards / 22-6 ratio) and a superb RB in Jeremy McNichols, who has run for 1.369 yards (fifth nationally) on 5.7 YPC with 18 TDs. He’s added 31 catches on 13.8 YPC with four TDs.His 22 TDs are tops in the nation. Unlike UNLV, Boise State owns two quality WRs in senior Thomas Sperbeck (62 catches for 1,023 yards) and junior Cedrick Wilson (44 for 827), who have both own nine TD receptions. The pick: Typically, a team traveling back from Hawaii is at a disadvantage (like Boise State is here) but that’s negated by UNLV coming off its stunning triple-OT win a vs. Wyoming, which was the third-highest scoring game in FBS history. UNLV intends to run the ball a lot and that could pose a problem for the Broncos who allowed a whopping 382 to New Mexico earlier this season. Also, the Broncos have just seven takeaways (five interceptions, two fumbles) on the season, tied for 126th nationally out of 128 FBS schools. That means the Rebels should score and no way Boise State doesn’t get its fair share against a UNLV defense that allowed this Boise State team 55 points on 705 yards last year in Las Vegas. Here on that famous “Blue Turf,” the Over is a 10* play.

The set-up. When Houston opened the season by upsetting Oklahoma 33-23 and Louisville opened its 2016 year with a 70-14 rout of Charlotte, led by Lamar Jackson accounting for eight TDs, this Thursday night game in Houston on Nov. 17 was already being talked about. Louisville, led by Heisman-favorite Lamar Jackson has held up its end, as the Cardinals enter 9-1 and ranked 5th in the latest CFP rankings but the same cannot be said for Houston. The Cougars lost 46-40 at Navy back on Oct. 8 and then two weeks later, lost 38-16 at SMU (Mustangs are currently a 5-5 team). Louisville: The Cardinal will likely not make the ACC title game, as they’d need Clemson to lose Saturday at Wake Forest, where the Tigers are favored by more than three TDs. However, Louisville secured its highest ranking ever in Tuesday’s announcement, at No. 5. If the Cards finish 11-1, they could just sneak into the “Final 4” with a little help on Championship Saturday. Then again, since Louisville needed a 34-point fourth quarter to subdue stubborn Wake Forest last Saturday, maybe the Demon Deacons can give them some help this Saturday. QB Lamar Jackson continues to shatter records on a near-weekly basis. He broke Teddy Bridgewater's single-season school record of 4,048 offensive yards and tied another single-season school mark with his seventh 100-yard rushing effort this past Saturday. Yes, the Heisman Trophy frontrunner was limited to season lows in total yards (298) and TDs responsible for (one) but he enters this game with 2,898 passing yards (27-6 ratio) and 1,334 rushing yards on 7.3 YPC with 19 TDs. RB Brandon Radcliff sparked Louisville's 41-point second-half explosion with a career-high three TDs and rushed for 141 yards, giving the Cardinals a pair of 100-yard rushers in the same game for a school-record third time this season. Houston: Following a 5-0 start, the Cougars climbed as high as No. 6 in the national polls and started eying this Nov. 17th game with Louisville as the team's chance to thrust themselves into the CFP conversation. However, as noted above, two loses in a three-week span not only snuffed those hopes but also put in peril a shot to win an American Athletic Conference title. Houston is 5-2 in the AAC West and Navy is 5-1 plus owns the tie-breaker, meaning the Cougars would need Navy to lose at both East Carolina and SMU for Houston to have a shot (Cougars still need to win at Memphis, or nothing will help). QB Greg Ward Jr. joined Case Keenum (20,114) and Kevin Kolb (13,715) as the only players in school history to amass 10,000 yards of total offense last weekend and he moved into a second-place tie with Kolb (26) for the most wins by a Cougars Q B. However, he hasn’t been 100 percent healthy recently (a short week can’t be helping the healing) and one wonders if Houston can match scores with Louisville,.

The pick: In Houston’s favor is the fact that the Cougars will take a 14-game home winning streak into this contest, with an average margin of victory of 19.3 PPG. However, this Louisville team still has CFP dreams alive and if one-dimensional Navy can rip the Cougar defense for 46 points, just what will Lamar Jackson and Co. be able to do? Louisville is a 10* play.

The set-up: Toledo is 8-2 overall (5-1 in the MAC West) as it gets set to host Ball State (4-6 overall, 1-5 in the MAC West) on Wednesday night at the Glass Bowl. Toledo football has maintained a winning standard for seven seasons (from 2010 through the current season of 2016) through three head-coaching changes and the departure of countless players. The Rockets have won nine games three times since 2010 and 10 games once but Toledo has not won a MAC championship since 2004. In fact, Toledo has yet to even reach a MAC title game since that 2004 championship year. Ball State won 12 games back in 2008 and 10 games in 2013 but needs to win its final two games of 2016 to avoid a third consecutive losing season (Cardinals were 5-7 and 3-9 the last two seasons). Ball State: The Cardinals visit Toledo off a heartbreaking loss a week ago Tuesday at home to Eastern Michigan. Ball State jumped out to a 21-3 lead early, rallied after falling behind 40-28, and ultimately landed on the wrong side of a 48-41 final. Eastern Michigan reached bowl eligibility for the first time in nearly two decades by virtue of the win, while Ball State needs to win its final two games to get bowl eligible after a two-year drought. The Cardinals' best bet to stay competitive with Toledo is to establish RB James Gilbert (1,196 yards on 5.4 YPC with 12 TDs) early, then throw in some low-risk passes to keep the Toledo defense honest. However, Gilbert suffered a leg injury against the Eagles and is listed as questionable. QB Neal runs well (359 rushing yards and 7 TDs) but is a mediocre thrower at best, passing for a modest 2,093 yards (Ball St. ranks 70th in passing yards) with 10 TDs and 11 INTs.  The Ball State defense allows 30.3 PPG (78th). Toledo: The Rockets own excellent offensive balance, as QB Logan Woodside completes 70.8% for 3,328 yards with 37 TDs and just six INTs. Those numbers rank among CFBs best. He's averaging more passing yards per game than Baker Mayfield (Okla.), has more TD passes than Patrick Mahomes (TT), and has a better touchdown-to-interception ratio than Luke Falk (Wash. St.). RB Kareem Hunt has 1,048 yards on the ground, averaging 5.2 YPC with 7 TDs. The Toledo defense has done a nice job this year, holding opponents to 22.9 PPG (34th). The pick: Toledo’s only losses have come on a last second FG by BYU in a 55-53 defeat and a five-point home loss to Ohio (the Bobcats’ first win in Toledo since 1967!). Toledo needs to win here so when it travels to MAC West-leading and No. 14-ranked Western Michigan the day after Thanksgiving, the winner of that contest would be off to the MAC championship game. However, Ball State may not be a pushover, as five of Ball State’s six losses have been decided by 10 points or less. Toledo may play this “close to the vest” and my play is a 10* on the Under.

The set-up: Frank Solich came to Athens, Ohio for the 2005 season and in his second year, led the Bobcats to a MAC East title and just the school’s third-ever bowl appearance. Solich is working his magic again. Ohio is 7-3 (5-1 in MAC play) after a 34-10 win over Buffalo on Nov. 3, giving the Bobcats six wins in their last seven games. One win in the team's last two games (or one loss by Miami, Ohio) and the Bobcats will be headed to their fourth MAC title game and regardless, Ohio is headed for an eighth bowl appearance in Solich’s 12 seasons. Central Michigan won its first three games, included a controversial 30-27 upset victory at Oklahoma State back on Sep. 10. CMU got to 5-2 with a triple-OT win at Northern Illinois back on Oct. 15 but the Chippewas have lost three in a row since, allowing 31.7 PPG. Tuesday night MACtion continues with Ohio traveling to Mount Pleasant to take on Central Michigan, as the Bobcats look to clinch the East title and the Chippewas look to clinch a sixth win (and bowl eligibility) in their fourth try! Ohio: Redshirt freshman Quinton Maxwell is 3-0 since taking over at QB for Greg Windham (ankle issues) as the team’s starter. These last wo games he’s led the Bobcats to a 31-26 win at Toledo (Ohio’s first win at Toledo since 1967) and then a 34-10 home rout of Buffalo, when he passed for 236 yards with two TDs and ran for 50 yards and one TD. RB Dorian Brown was the star at Toledo, rushing for a career high 212 yards in the win over the Rockets. This has been one of Solich’s best coaching seasons and as is typical, his defense has been solid, allowing 23.0 PPG to rank 35th in the nation: Central Michigan: CMU’s Cooper Rush entered 2016 as one of the MAC’s top QBs and is closing in on the conference record for most career passing yards. Rush has passed for 12,119 yards over the last four years and needs just under 800 yards (786) to pass former Chippewa Dan LeFevour for the No. 1 spot in the MAC record book. However, Rush isn’t having quite the statistical season he posted last year (3,848 yards with a 25-11 ratio) but the senior has still passed for 2,775 yards and 21 scores. Then again, his completion percentage has dropped from 66.3 (2015) to 59.6 in 2016. Most agree CMU has the better offense but the Chippewas are averaging 28.4 PPG to Ohio’s 29.3! The pick: The Chippewas have won six of the last seven meetings between the two schools and that includes two in the MAC title games (209 & 2011). Howevewr, while the Bobcats come in having won six of seven, the Chippewa limp in having lost five of seven, including three straight. Ohio’s defense has the ability to control the game in the trenches and QB Maxwell seems to be improving with each snap. Another edge Ohio has is that the Bobcats are second in the MAC with a plus-nine margin TO margin, while the Chippewas are eighth at minus-six. Ohio clinches the MAC East with a win, while the Chippewas will have to wait until Nov 22 (at Eastern Michigan) to secure bowl eligibility. Ohio is an 8* play.

The set-up: Cal is 4-5 overall (2-4 in the Pac-12 North) and will take an 0-4 road record to Pullman, Washington to take on the surprising Washington State Cougars (7-2 / 6-0 in the Pac 12 North). Washington State is ranked No. 23 in the latest CFP rankings, playing better than it has in many years. The Cougars opened 2016 with a 45-42 home loss to Eastern Washington and then lost 31-28 at Boise State but Washington State owns seven straight wins since (4-3 ATS). Cal comes in having lost three of its past four games, including a 66-27 loss to Washington on Saturday night, when it allowed 704 total yards! California: Cal’s "Bear Raid" attack is ranked second nationally, behind Texas Tech, with 463 pass attempts (51.4 per game). Washington State is third at 455. QB Davis Webb (a Texas Tech transfer) has seamlessly replaced Jared Goff (NFL’s overall No. 1 pick), ranking third nationally with 352.9 YPG passing. He’s completing 61.0 percent with 30 TDs and 11 INTs. WR Chad Hansen, the most prolific receiver in the country early this season, is back from an ankle injury and seems to be regaining his form.However, no FBS team allows more points than Cal (44.4 PPG) and the Bears rank 125th (of 128 teams) in allowing 527.9 YPG. Washington State: Cal head coach Sonny Dykes was a former assistant to WSU head coach Mike Leach at Texas Tech and says of his former mentor, "Mike does what Mike is going to do, and he does it well. And, he's done it well for a long time. He's always moved the ball, he's always scored points." QB Luke Falk threw for 311 yards in three quarters against Arizona last week, at one point completing 22 consecutive passes. The Cougars were 47 of 52 passing against the Wildcats. Falk is No. 2 in the nation with 359.7 passing YPG, completing 74.1% with 28 TDs and five INTs  His two WRs, seniors Marks (61) and River Cracraft (44), are in the top-five in the conference in receptions per game and receiving yards per game. Marks has 10 TD catches. The pick: Washington State's true heavyweight showdown does not come until the Apple Cup against rival Washington to end the regular season, as the two rivals enter this week as the only undefeated squads in Pac-12 play. Cal is 0-4 on the road this season but three of those losses have come by 10 points or less. Throw in that Cal has won 10 of the last 11 in the series, including a 60-59 decision in the last meeting in Pullman, and Cal is a 10* play.

The set-up: 9-0 Washington moved up to the No.4 spot in last Tuesday’s CFP rankings but the Huskies still have critics because of their strength of schedule. USC opened the season No. 20 in the AP’s preseason poll but a 52-6 loss to Alabama in its season-opener, as well as the team’s 1-3 start has kept the Trojans outside of the AP’s top-25 despite a five-game winning streak. However, USC was ranked No. 20 in the latest CFP rankings which is a bonus for Washington if the Huskies get earn their 12th straight win, going back to last season. Washington: Sophomore QB Jake Browning matched his own school record with six TD passes in last week's 66-27 win over California. He already owns the single-season mark of 34 passing TDs (in just nine games), throwing only three INTs in 220 attempts. He’s completing 67.7 percent for 2,273 yards, leading an offense averaging 48.3 PPG (3rd). RB Myles Gaskin (952 yards on 6.3 YPC with 8 TDs) leads a running game averaging 231.0 YPG (23rd), providing outstanding balance. Washington's defense does a nice job keeping opposing scores low, allowing just 17.0 PPG ((11th) on 329.8 YPG (18th). USC: Washington head coach Chris Petersen believes USC is for real. "USC is right back to being USC," he said. "You just watch the tape." USC's season turned when when head coach Clay Helton inserted redshirt freshman Sam Darnold as his starting QB in the fourth game, a 31-27 loss to the Utes, who scored in the final minute. However, the Trojans have ripped off five consecutive wins since (4-1 ATS), winning four by at least 21 points. Darnold is ranked seventh nationally (first among freshmen) in QB rating with a mark of 168.1. He has completed 146 of 215 passes for 1,874 yards, with 20 TDs and only four interceptions. USC ranks 38th defensively in both scoring 23.6 PPG on 373.1 YPG. The pick: Two of the best young QBs in the country will face off for the first time but Darnold will face the strength of the Washington defense, its pass D. The Huskies allow just 5.6 yards per pass attempt, the fifth-best mark in the country. USC held the Ducks to 288 total yards, their lowest total since 2009, in last week’s 45-20 win but slowing Washington’s offense is a ‘horse of a different color.’ The Huskies have scored 41 p;points or more in seven of nine games and I say they get their lucky 13th straight win with plenty of “margin of error!” Washington is a 10* play. 

The set-up: The Fighting Irish played Texas in Austin to open their 2016 season back on Labor Day night. Notre Dame was No. 10 in the AP’s preseason poll and lost to unranked Texas (coming off a 5-7 season) in a thrilling 50-47 double-OT contest. How the mighty have fallen, as Note Dame enters this game 3-6 and would need to win out over its final three games just to become bowl-eligible. Notre Dame comes into this contest against Army at San Antonio off a 28-27 loss last Saturday to Navy in Jacksonville. It marked just Notre Dame’s fourth loss to Navy since 1963. Army comes in 5-4 and the Black Knights are one away from that coveted sixth win and academy’s first bowl berth since 2010 (previous one before that was 1996!). Notre Dame: Brian Kelly was sitting atop the college football world back in 2012 when he led the Irish to a 12-0 regular season and a berth in the BCS championship game against Alabama. ND was outclassed in that contest (lost 42-14 and it wasn’t as close as the final score) and while the school has been bowling each of the last three years since that title-game loss, the school’s three-year run from 2013 through 2015 of 27-12 is good but hardly special. 2016 has been a frustrating season, but QB Kizer is completing 60.4% for 2,261 yards with 19 TDs and 7 INTs. He’s completed 67.7% the last two games, throwing five TDs without an INT. Notre Dame’s defense is hardly a vintage group, allowing 27.7 PPG (67th). Army:  Head coach Jeff Monken has done a great job of bringing this program back to prominence, as army will go ‘bowling’ with one more win. Army struggled to get its vaunted rushing attack going in a 31-12 loss to Air Force last Saturday but the Black Knights still rank third in the nation, averaging 320.3 YPG on the ground. Despite often being out-sized, Army’s defense ranks 13th in points allowed (18.1 per) on 288.1 YPG (5th). The pick: The Fighting Irish have claimed 14 straight meetings with Army but the schools have played just twice since 1998 and last met in 2010. Army's last win in the series was a 14-2 triumph at Notre Dame back in 1958! Notre Dame didn’t come close to stopping Navy’s option-offense last week, allowing 320 rushing yards, which is the same amount of rushing yards Army average per game. I believe Army can trade scores with Notre Dame and the Black Knights will have to if they expect to win, as Kizer and Notre Dame should score quite a bit in this one. The Over  is a 10* play. 

The set-up: Texas has won three of its last four, including back-to-back wins over Baylor (35-34) and Texas Tech (45-37) to reach 5-4. Beleaguered head coach Charlie Strong is now one win shy of bowl-eligibility, with home games against West Va. and TCU plus a road game at Kansas still left. Strong took control of the defensive play-calling four games ago and the Longhorns may have salvaged their season with some improved defensive play plus the outstanding play of RB D'Onta Foreman and the solid play of freshman QB Shane Buechele. The Mountaineers lone loss was a sloppy, three-turnover 37-20 defeat on the road against No. 17 Oklahoma State back on Oct. 29 (those turnovers led to 17 points). West Va. is 4-1 in the Big 12, trailing 5-1 Okla. St. and 6-0 Oklahoma. West Virginia: The Mountaineers recovered from their first loss with a 48-21 home victory over Kansas last week. QB Skyler Howard had a 260-yard, three TD game last week and has completed 65.1 percent of his passes (up from just 54.8% last year) for 2,293 yards and 16 TDs (6 INTs). The offense has great balance, averaging 287.1 YPG passing and 223.6 YPG rushing, while scoring 33.2 PPG (44th). The defense is excellent, allowing 20.6 PPG (20th) on 394.0 YPG (57th). West Virginia trails Oklahoma (6-0) and Oklahoma State (5-1) and those teams meet Dec. 3, but West Virginia also hosts Oklahoma on Nov. 19. A loss here vs. Texas would be a ‘killer.’ Texas: Foreman had 341 rushing yards and three TDs against Texas Tech last Saturday and has 591 yards and five TDs in Texas’ back-to-back wins. Foreman leads the nation in yards per game (180.8) and is second in total rushing yards (1,446). “Man, he's the real deal," Texas wide receiver Jake Oliver said about Foreman. "The stuff in the game doesn't even compare to what he does in practice. He's truly amazing every single day. As receivers, we don't just focus on catching the ball out there. We know he's going to bust big runs multiple times per game. Our job is to block on the perimeter for him and help on those big plays." Buechele has played well as a first-year starter at QB, leading an offense scoring 37.0 PPG (28th) on 506.7 YPG (12th). The defense is allowing 33.2 PPG on the season but since Strong took over the play-calling duties, it’s been cut to 25.3 PPG. The pick: West Va. is the better team but Texas is a PERFECT 4-0 SU and ATS here in Austin and that’s the bet. Texas is a 10* play. 

The set-up: Florida State lost 37-34 to Clemson on October 29th, falling to 5-3 on the season and to No. 19 in the AP poll. FSU then found themselves down 20-10 at NC State in the late third quarter last Saturday. A loss would likely mean the Seminoles would drop out of the next AP poll, ending a streak of 79 consecutive weeks in the rankings. A second straight defeat would also mark the first time FSU had lost back-to-back games since the 2011 season, a span of 71 games! However, Dalvin Cook ran for a 10-yard TD on the final pay of the third quarter and the Seminoles added a 4th-quarter TD as well, to pull out a 24-20. Streaks intact! 6-3 FSU (No. 20 in the AP poll and 18 in the CFP rankings) hosts 4-5 (1-5 in ACC play) Boston College on Friday night. Boston College: The Eagles kept finding ways to lose conference games, following up last year's 0-for-the-ACC (eight games) with four league losses this year. Boston College finally ended its 12-game ACC slide with a 21-14 win at NC State on October 29 but the Eagles could not follow up their first ACC victory versus Louisville, allowing Heisman Trophy-favorite Lamar Jackson 416 total yards and seven TDs accounted for in a 52-7 loss. BC’s offense is a work in progress, as QB Patrick Towles has completed only 51 percent of his passes for 1,293 yards (8 TDs / 6 INTs) and the Eagles rank only 88th in the nation in rushing yards  (157.6 YPG) on 3.7 YPC. However, despite the Louisville blowout, the defense is giving up 26.2 PPG(57th) on 322.1 YPG (14th), including only 106.1 YPG on the ground, which ranks 8th. Florida State: Freshman QB Deondre Francois has been sacked 26 times but overall, has had a pretty solid season. He’s completed 60.0 percent of his passes for 2,492 yards and while he’s thrown a modest 12 TD passes, he has just four INTs on 295 attempts, an excellent ratio for a first-year starter. The rushing attack ranks 49th with 190.9 YPG (4.8 YPC), led by Dalvin Cook’s 1,134 yards (5.8 YPC) with 12 TDs. The FSU defense is hardly a vintage unit, allowing 28.8  PPG (72nd) on 411.1 YPG (73rd).Cook owns 3,833 yards through three seasons and the junior is now 127 yards away from breaking Warrick Dunn’s record of career rushing yards (it’s a 20-year-old). Cook averages 126 YPG, so look out! The set-up: The Seminoles will be hosting a Friday game in Tallahassee for only the second time ever, and for the first since 1957. As noted above, this year’s FSU defense is not a vintage group (for reference, the team’s 2013 unit sent all 11 starters to the NFL!). I realize that BC's offense ranks 122nd in scoring (19.4 PPG) and 126th on 312.1 YPG but I see them putting up some points here. Cook has struggled against Boston College's defense the last two seasons but he'll be highly motivated with Dunn's record easilly attainable. Deondre Francois may not be Lamar Jackson but note that FSU is averaging 36.6 PPG this season in Tallahassee and I expect them to exceed that here, making the Over a 10* play.

The set-up: The Tar Heels lost their season-opener to South Carolina last year but then won 11 straight games (8-0 in ACC play) to earn a spot in the ACC championships opposite Clemson. North Carolina lost 45-37 to the Tigers and then lost 49-38 in a bowl game to Baylor. North Carolina enters this Thursday night contest 7-2 (5-1 in the ACC Coastal) at Duke (3-6 / 0-5 in ACC play) intent on staying even with Va. Tech (also 5-1), although the Hokies own the tiebreaker over the Tar Hells due to Va. Tech’s 34-3 win over North Carolina. Duke entered the 2016 season off four straight bowl appearances, averaging between 31.5 and 32.8 PPG each season. However, the 2016 edition of the Blue Devils is going nowhere this season, still searching for the team’s first league win while averaging just 24.1 PPG on the year. North Carolina: Junior QB Mitch Trubisky is completing 70.3 percent of his passes for 2,707 yards and 19 TDs with only two INTs and senior WR Ryan Switzer has 70 receptions. The running game is nothing special (152.9 YPG on 4.8 YPC) but North Carolina does have two solid RBs in Hood (644 yards on 6.0 YPC & 8 TDs) plus Logan (506 yards on 6.0 YPC & 7 TDs). Last year’s defense was the team’s Achilles’ heel (allowed 94 points in the ACC title game and in its bowl loss) but this year’s unit seems to be pulling together, allowing a modest 15.7 PPG during its three-game winning streak. Duke:  The Blue Devils lost starting QB Thomas Sirk before the season and leading rusher Jela Duncan went down a few weeks ago. Freshman QB Daniel Jones has done a decent job (62.0% for 2,037 yards with 11 TDs, 9 INTs and 375 rushing yards with 5 TDs) but he’s no Trubisky. Duke is the only ACC team without a conference victory and enters its home finale on a three-game losing streak. The defense has played reasonably well (23.9 PPG) but when the offense is getting just 24.1 PPG, a team tends to struggle. “We could have very easily won all three of those games, there's no doubt about that," head coach David Cutcliffe said about the team’s three-game slide. As for upcoming North Carolina? "We don't really look at their record, that's not something that we pay attention to, Fedora added. “We know we're going to get their best game and hopefully we're going to give them our best game." He then added, “There’s a reason we are 3-6.” The pick: This is Duke’s final home game and the Blue Devils are on an 11-5 ATS run as a home dog but North Carolina will take a nine-game road winning streak into this contest, including wins this season at then-No. 12 Florida State and then-No. 16 Miami-Fla. North Carolina is an 8* play. 

The set-up: The Bowling Green Falcons have dominated the MAC East under head coaches Dave Clawson and Dino Babers the last few years, reaching three consecutive MAC championship games. However, there will certainly not be a fourth straight title game appearance for Bowling Green, as the 1-8 Falcons have taken a monster step back under first-year head coach Mike Jinks. They are winless both in conference play and in fact, against all FBS competition, with the school’s lone win coming 27-26 over North Dakota back on Sept. 10. Akron is 5-5 overall and 3-3 in MAC East play. One more win earns the team bowl eligibility, which is no small feat. After all, last season’s 23-21 bowl win over Utah St. was the school’s first-ever bowl victory in just the school’s second-ever bowl appearance. Bowling Green: Falcons freshman QB James Morgan has a bright future ahead of him, as 13 of his 14 TD passes on the season have come in the team’s last four games, where he’s averaged 300.3 YPG through the air. He’ll face an Akron defense which is highly vulnerable, allowing 35.6 PPG (110th) on 497.0 YPG (121st). However, BG’s defense is a mess, ranking last (128th) among all FBS schools in allowing 45.1 PPG on 505.3 YPG (122nd). If things weren’t already bad enough for Bowling Green, the Falcons have committed 26 turnovers, second-most behind Kansas’ 29. QBs James Morgan and James Knapke have combined for 22 interceptions, the most of any one team in the nation. Akron: QB Thomas Woodson has thrown for nearly 2,076 yards, despite missing two games in MAC play with a shoulder injury. Prior to the injury, Woodson had three games with at least three TD passes but he's yet to break that mark since returning. He’ll go up against the sieve-like Bowling Green defense, which is allowing 278.2 YPG (122nd) through the air. The Zips’ MAC East title hopes are not yet ‘dead’ but back-to-back losses have put Akron in a tough spot. Making matters worse, the Zips weren’t all that competitive in either contest. Buffalo hadn’t won a conference game until beating Akron, 41-20 on Oct. 27, and Toledo outscored the Zips 45-7 over the final three quarters in a blowout 48-17 victory Nov. 2. However, the Zips can still win the East with some help. Akron must win here and would then need an Ohio U loss on Nov. 15th at Central Michigan. That would set up a showdown with the Bobcats in the regular-season finale on Nov. 22nd at home. The pick: This seems like it should (will?) be a high scoring game and I wouldn’t argue against that but just how high scoring is the question? Akron can’t control what happens with Ohio next week but a win here not only gets them bowl-eligible (again, a big deal) but keeps them alive for a shot at the MAC title game, at least until the result comes in from the Ohio U/Central Michigan contest in Mount Pleasant on Nov 15th.  This over/under number is YUGE and the Under is an 8* play.

The set-up: It’s once again Tuesday and of course some MACtion headlines the college football card. However, tonight’s Eastern Michigan (5-4 / 2-3 in the MAC West) at Ball State (4-5 / 1-4 in the MAC West) is hardly a marquee matchup. Then again, it should be mentioned that a win by Eastern Michigan would make the school bowl-eligible at 6-4 and with two home games remaining on its schedule, the Eagles could be heading to just the school’s second-ever bowl game (EMU’s only other appearance was a 30-27 win in the  1987 California Bowl over San Jose State). Eastern Michigan: The Eagles own an excellent passing game which ranks 27th in the nation at 282.4 YPG. QB Brogan Roback has taken over for Porter (shoulder), who had just seven TDs and nine INTs and he’s done great. He’s averaged 312.3 YPG over EMU’s last four games, topping 300 yards in each of his last three, while throwing six TDs and just two INTs (owns a 10-3 ratio on the season). Just why won’t he have success against a Ball State pass defense allowing 295.9 YPG (120th)? However, EMU’s rush defense allowed Miami-Ohio to run for 230 yards (5.3 YPC) in a 28-15 home loss last time out and in Ball State’s James Gilbert, the Eagles will feature one of the nation’s best under-the-radar RBs. Ball State: The Cardinals are 1-4 in league play but at 4-5 overall, getting to six wins is still a possibility. However, Ball State will finish with road games at Toledo and Miami-Ohio, so getting to six wins is hardly a likely scenario. That means winning here is a must and if Ball State is to do that, Gilbert will have to lead the way. He’s run for 1,142 yards on 5.4 YPC with 11 TDs. The sophomore RB has reached the 100-yard mark in each of the last five games, including 264 yards against Buffalo and 155 last week against Western Michigan. The pick: Both teams badly need a win, as after opening 4-1, EMU has lost three of four, while Ball State has lost four of its last five, including last week’s 52-20 loss at home against Western Michigan. I will note though, that Eastern Michigan was good enough to beat Wyoming 27-24 earlier this year (Cowboys are currently 7-2 and own a win over a ranked Boise State team) plus also won at Ohio U 27-20, as an eight-point dog (Bobcats are currently 7-3 and lead the MAC East at 5-1). History is on on Ball State’s side in this one, as the Cardinals have won 10 of the last 11 meetings (including five in a row) but this year’s Eastern Michigan team has a very realistic chance at the school’s second-ever bowl berth and a win here will all but lock that up. EMU is a 10* play. 

The set-up: To no one’s surprise Alabama, the AP’s No. 1-ranked team all season, earned the same ranking in the 1st CFP rankings of the 2016 season this past Tuesday. The Crimson Tide (8-0, 5-0 in the SEC West) had a bye last week and Saturday night travels to Baton Rogue to take on the 5-2 LSU Tigers (3-1 in the SEC-West.) LSU fired head coach Les Miles after a 2-2 start and are now 3-0 under Ed Orgeron, outscoring opponents 125-38 and found themselves at No. 13 in the first CFP rankings.It is not quite the annual "Game of the Century" that it has been in recent years but it is still LSU and Alabama, and there still is quite a bit at stake. Alabama leads the series 50-25-5 and has won each of the past five meetings. However, in the past five games at Tiger Stadium, each team has scored a total of 103 points and two of those games went into overtime. The Crimson Tide won three of the five. Alabama: No one questions Alabama’s No. 1 ranking, as the Tide enters averaging 43.9 PPG (8th) on 498.0 YPG (17th), while allowing 14.9 PPG (4th) on 275.1 YPG (4th). Freshman QB Jalen Hurts has accounted for 20 TDs (11 passing, nine rushing), passing for 1,578 yards and running for 521 yards (5.5 YPC). Sophomore RB Damien Harris has a team-leading 697 rushing yards (8.1 YPC) for a unit which averages 268.4 (10th) on 6.0 YPC. The defense ranks 1st in rushing yards allowed (70.8 per) and the defense and special teams have accounted for 12 non-offensive TDs (nine on defense, three on punt returns). LSU: The Tigers can tighten the race in the SEC West if they can upset the top-ranked Tide but LSU still a lot of regular-season work left after Alabama, with games against Arkansas, Florida and Texas A&M in a 13-day stretch. A win would greatly bolster Ed Orgeron's case to be named the permanent successor to Miles and the good news is that All-America RB Leonard Fournette is the healthiest he has been all season. He had a record-setting performance against Ole Miss in the Tigers' most recent game (284 yards rushing) and like Alabama, LSU had last weekend off, as well. QB Etling is completing 64.5% for 232.0 YPG with four TDs and two INTs in three games under Orgeron but trading points with Alabama will be tough. The pick: I just have no reason to go against Alabama in this price range, as Alabama's eight wins have come by an average margin of 24.1 PPG. I noted Alabama’s No. 1-ranked rush defense earlier and will add that the Crimson Tide stymied Fournette in their 30-16 win last season, holding him to 31 yards on 19 rushes. Alabama has forced 16 turnovers this season with nine resulting in defensive TDs and its balanced offense (268.4 rushing YPG / 229.6 YPG) will give the LSU defense (ranked 5th in allowing just 15.0 PPG), its toughest test of the season. Alabama has won the past five meetings and makes it six in a row. Alabama is an 8* play.

The set-up: James Franklin has led the Nittany Lions to bowl games in each of his first two seasons at Penn State but each season the team finished just 7-6. This year’s team has won four in a row entering this contest, including a “signature” 24-21 upset of Ohio State. Penn State is 6-2, 4-1 in the Big Ten East, trailing 8-0 (5-0) Michigan and tied with 7-1 (4-1) Ohio State. Penn St is No. 12 in the first CFP rankings of the season, as the Nittany Lions get set to host Iowa, which is 5-3, including 3-2 in the Big Ten West. Iowa was the favorite to win the Big Ten West Division before the season but the Hawkeyes trail Nebraska and Wisconsin by one game in the standings. Iowa: Senior C.J. Beathard has thrown for 1,380 yards with 11 TDs and four interceptions but the QB’s numbers are down across the board from last season when the Hawkeyes opened the season with 11 straight wins. Iowa’s running game averages 167.9 YPG with two solid RBs, Akrum Wadley (636 yards on 7.1 YPC and 8 TDs) and LeShun Daniels Jr. (624 yards on 5.2 YPC and 6 TDs). Penn State’s rush D allows 183.4 YPG to rank 81st, so it can be exploited. Iowa’s defense is always solid under Kirk Ferentz and this year is no different, allowing 18.9 PPG (16th). Penn State: The Nittany Lions come in off a 62-24 blowout of Purdue, which enabled coach James Franklin to empty his bench early in the fourth quarter for the first time in recent memory. RB Saquon Barkley had 207 rushing yards and added 70 more receiving yards. He leads the team with 888 yards on 6.0 YPC with 10 TDs. QB Trace McSorley threw three TD passes in the win, giving him a 12-3 ratio on the season but he’s completing just 55.2% of his passes. Under Joe Pa, one could always count on the Penn State defense but this year’s unit is nothing special, allowing 27.0 PPG (62nd) on 380.4 YPG (46th). The pick: This year’s Hawkeyes are not that far away from being undefeated, as they’ve had their chances to win in all three defeats, falling by two, seven and eight points. Iowa is far from an offensive juggernaut but the Hawkeyes have scored points on 26-of-28 trips to the red zone, including 20 TDs and six FGs. That 92.9-percent success rate is second in the Big Ten and No. 12 in FBS. However, Penn State is 5-0 SU at home in 2016 and has won 11 of its last 12 home games. “Happy Valley” is again indeed, “happy!” Penn St is a 10* play. 

The set-up: From 2009 through 2014., UCF made five bowl appearances in six years but coming off a 9-4 season in 2014, went 0-12 in 2015.  Meanwhile, after ending a bowl drought which extended back to 2012 by going to the New Orleans Bowl in 2013, Tulane regressed to past form by going 3-9 in both 2014 and 2015. Both schools made coaching changes prior to the 2016 season and when the two teams meet in Orlando on Saturday (a game rescheduled from Oct. 7 due to Hurricane Matthew), Tulane checks in at 3-5 overall (although 0-4 in AAC play) and UCF brings a 4-4 overall record into the game (2-2 in AAC play). Tulane:  Willie Fritz was the head coach at University of Central Missouri from 1997 to 2009, before moving to Sam Houston State University from 2010 to 2013, where he led the Bearkats to back-to-back national title game appearances in 2011 and 2012. He was the head coach at Georgia Southern University in 2014 and 2015, going 9-3 and 8-4. Last year’s team earned a bowl berth but he accepted the Tulane job before coaching the team in it. He’s quickly turned the Tulane offense around, as after averaging 16.0 and 19.7 PPG in 2014 and 2015, the Green Wave have averaged 28.4 PPG in 2016, despite being held to 14 points or less in three of eight games. Fritz has yet to win a conference game but it’s coming. UCF: Scott Frost was given his first-ever head coaching job at UCF prior to the 2016 season and ended the Knight’s 13-game losing streak with a 38-0 season-opening home win over South Carolina State. The Knights take the field 4-4 (2-2 in AAC play) and like Tulane, have turned things around offensively, averaging 31.1 PPG, after averaging only 13.9 PPG in 2015’s winless season. The Knights are kicking off a three-game homestand with this game on Saturday and would probably need to win all three to keep their division title hopes alive going into the finale at USF. That’s an unlikely scenario but reaching six wins to become bowl-eligible is reasonably attainable. The pick: UCF has failed to score more than 25 points in any of its last three games (has scored 24 twice and 25 once) but in its two previous contests, had rolled to 53- and 47-point efforts. Tulane visit Orlando having allowed 85 points in consecutive losses but has also scored 58 points in those two games. By game’s end, this over/under number should be in “the rearview mirror.” The Over is a 10* play.  

The set-up: Clemson lost 45-40 in last year’s CFP championship game and opened 2016 at No. 2 in the AP’s preseason poll. The 2016 season’s 1st CFB rankings were released this past Tuesday and 8-0 Clemson was again No. 2 behind Alabama. However, Clemson’s trek to 8-0 has not been smooth, as five of the Tigers’ wins have come by seven points or less. Dino Babers is in his first year as Clemson’s head coach and the Orange are coming off an open date after getting to the .500 mark with consecutive victories over Boston College and ACC Coastal Division frontrunner Virginia Tech in their last two games (4-4, 2-2 in the ACC’s Atlantic Division), Syracuse: Dino Babers, 18-9 in two years at Bowling Green, has fashioned quite a turnaround with Syracuse’s offense in 2016. The 4-8 Orange averaged just 320.0 YPG last season but this season they are averaging 486.9 YPG (26th), including 357.1 YPG through the air (5th). QB Eric Dungey is completing 64.7% with 15 TDs and 6 INTs, while ranking seventh nationally in passing yards at 328.9 YPG (he has six 300-yard passing games). The Syracuse defense is a problem, allowing 31.6 PPG (93rd) on 450.8 YPG (105th). Clemson: The Tigers have been somewhat inconsistent in their ability to run the ball this season, as QB Watson is down from averaging 73.7 YPG rushing on 5.3 YPC with 12 TDs in 15 games to 41.4 YPG on 3.8 YPC with one TD in eight games. Clemson averaged about 223 YPG rushing last year but that’s down to around 165 YPG in 2016. Watson has averaged 291.0 YPG passing (averaged 273.6 YPG last year) and has a 22-10 ratio in eight games, compared to a 35-13 ratio in 15 games in 2015. Clemson’s defense is improved, down from 21.7 PPG to 17.6 PPG (11th). The pick: The Tigers have outscored opponents 86-6 in the first quarter and 167-43 in the first half but as noted above, own three wins by exactly six points, a 7-point win in OT and a three-point win. The Tigers are looking to win for the 21st consecutive time in Death Valley but the points (almost four TDs!) look ‘juicy!’ Syracuse is a 10* play.

The set-up: Temple’s Matt Rhule led the Owls to a 10-4 season last year and pleased all in Philly when he decided to not seek greener pastures in the offseason. There was a time last month when Temple had to question if it would even gain bowl eligibility this season but three straight wins have the Owls flying high heading into Friday's road game with UConn (Owls are 6-3 , 4-1 in the AAC East). Down 25-7 in the first half at UCF on Oct. 15, Temple shut out the Knights in the second half and won 26-25, with the game-winning TD pass coming with one second remaining. Temple followed with a 46-30 pasting of USF last Saturday, rushing for 319 yards. Then last Saturday, Temple ‘pitched’ another second-half shutout against Cincy, turning a 20-13 halftime lead into a 34-13 victory. UConn limps in (3-6, 1-5 in the AAC East), after getting embarrassed 41-3 by an East Carolina team that entered with a 2-5 record. Temple: QB Phillip Walker had 199 passing yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) but the running game was again the team’s strength, as the Owls ran for 275 yards. Ryquell Armstead ran ran for a career-best 210 yards against USF but last week it was his RB partner, Jahad Thomas, who was the star with 151 yards. Walker is limited as a passer (57.6% / 13-10 ratio) but the running game averages 181.0 YPG (4.5 YPC), with Armstead contributing 674 yards (6.2 YPC / 11 TDs) and Thomas 564 yards (4.8 YPC / 9 TDs). Temple’s defense has continued its fine play from last year, coming into this contest allowing 22.7 PPG (32nd) on 306.4 YPG (11th). UConn: Huskies QB Bryant Shirreffs has not thrown a TD pass in his last two games and hasn't completed more than 60 percent of his passes in a game since Week 2. He enters the game having completed 58.7% on the season with only seven TD passes (also just six INTs). The running game produces only 126.6 YPG (113th), so it’s no surprise that UConn’s 18.3 PPG ranks 126th out of 128 FBS schools. The pick: "To be able to be bowl eligible is a credit to our players and our players alone," Temple coach Matt Rhule said to the media after last week’s win. "They have battled and overcome adversity, they fought back. They have some quality wins this year (but) we have higher expectations than that." Temple is tied at 4-1 with USF but having beaten the Bulls, owns the tiebreaker. The last-place Huskies have lost three straight games by a total of 61 points and have dropped four of the last five matchups in the series, getting outscored the last two years 63-13! That said, there is a letdown potential for Temple in this one and the Owls are double-digit road favorites. UConn is 4-2 ATS as a home dog since the start of 2015 and I’ll make UConn a 10* play.

The set-up: UCLA visits Boulder to take on Colorado on the first Thursday in November and who would have predicted that one could make the following statement. “Colorado controls its destiny in the Pac-12 South Division!” This marks Mike McIntyre’s fourth season as the Buffs head coach and after years of going 4-8, 2-10 and 4-9, this year’s team is 6-2 overall, including 4-1 in the Pac 12’s South Division. Colorado made the AP top-25 poll back on October 2nd (at No. 21) for the first time since November of 2005. The Buffs fell out the following week but are back in at No.21 again this week. UCLA opened the season ranked No. 16 in the AP but the Bruins head to Boulder heading towards a ‘lost season,’ checking in with a 3-5 record. UCLA: QB Josh Rosen injured his throwing shoulder in the final minutes of an October 8 loss to Arizona State and it was announced just this past Tuesday that he will miss the rest of the season. Mike Fafaul, a fifth-year senior and former walk-on, will lead the Bruins the remainder of the way. He passed for 464 yards in UCLA’s most recent game, a 52-45 October 22nd loss to Utah. He threw five TD passes in that contest but also four INTs (plus lost a fumble). He’s thrown eight TD passes and eight INTs in his two starts (plus two relief appearances), while completing only 55.7 percent. UCLA’s running game ranks dead-last nationally (128th) at 85.5 YPG plus defensively, the Bruins allow 26.8 PPG (58th) on 368.8 YPG (37th). Colorado: Senior QB Sefo Liufau (67.4%, 1,179 yards & a 7-0 ratio) directs an offense that is 19th nationally with 495.8 YPG and checks in 33rd in scoring at 35.4 PPG. The running game has been strong all year, as the Buffs are averaging 216.0 YPG (32nd), led by RB Phillip Lindsay (745 yards, on 6.3 YPC with nine TDs). It’s been balanced by a passing attack averaging 279.8 YPG (30th). Defensively, Colorado ranks 13th in points allowed (18.1 PPG) and 12th in total defense (306.6 YPG). The pick: The Bruins have won all five meetings with Colorado in conference play since the Buffs joined the Pac-12 but that was then and this is now. McIntyre has developed a defense in his time at Boulder, as after Colorado allowed 38.3 PPG and 39.0 PPG in his first two seasons, the team dropped to 27.5 PPG allowed in 2015 and now to 18.1 PPG. That’s some improvement. The team’s offensive pass/run balance has been terrific but note that the running game has been pretty special. The Buffs have rushed for 247, 260, 260, 263, 315 and 224 yards in their six victories, while being held to 64 and 96 in their two losses. UCLA’s rush defense, which allows 178.0 YPG, will be severely tested. UCLA beat Colorado just 35-31 last year (Buffs were just 4-9) and 40-37 in double overtime in 2014, when the Buffs finished 2-10. The shoe is on the other foot here in 2016. Make Colorado an 8* play.

The set-up: Oklahoma is 12th in the latest AP poll and is also ranked 14th in the first CFP standings of the 2016 season (highest ranking of any Big 12 school). This contest at Ames, Iowa against Iowa State marks just the fourth time in the 18-year Bob Stoops era that the Sooners will be playing a non-Saturday game and is just the second time during that span that OU will be playing a game with a shortened week of preparation (Sooners beat the Jayhawks 56-3 this past Saturday). Iowa State limps into this contest just 1-7 overall (lone win over San Jose State), including 0-5 in the Big 12. Oklahoma: Most should remember that Oklahoma opened the season No. 3 in the AP preseason poll but promptly lost 33-23 to Houston (as 13 point favorites) and then two weeks later, were routed at home 45-24 by Ohio State. One wonders just how much longer Stoops will be able to hang onto the moniker given him after his first two seasons at Norman of “Big Game Bob?” After that 1-2 start, the Sooners have won five in a row but getting back into the discussion for a CFP berth is a long shot. Yes, the Sooners have averaged 51.4 PPG in that five-game winning streak but three times, they’ve allowed 40 or more points (46 to TCU, 40 to Texas and 59 to Texas Tech). QB Baker Mayfield (70.9% for 2,584 yards with 27 TDs and 5 INTs) leads an offense averaging 45.4 PPG (5th) on 568.1 YPG (3rd) but the defense is allowing 32.5 PPG (102nd) on 437.6 YPG (93rd). Iowa State: The Cyclones lost 31-26 at home last Saturday to Kansas State, the team's fourth straight loss since a 44-10 non-conference victory over San Jose State (currently a 3-6 team). QB Jacob Park passed for a career-high 301 yards, including 250 in the second half, against Kansas State and has one of the top freshmen wide WRs in the country to throw to in Deshaunte Jones, who has 19 catches for 282 yards and five TDs over the last five games, as well as steady junior Allen Lazard, who has caught a pass in a school-record 31 straight games. He’ll face an Oklahoma pass D which ranks 126th (of 128) in allowing 314.9 YPG. The Iowa State defense will have its hands full with Oklahoma, allowing 32.4 PPG (99th) on 453.0 YPG (107th). The pick: The Sooners have won 17 consecutive games in the series, with Iowa State's last win coming in 1990. The Cyclones haven't beaten the Sooners at home in 22 meetings, with their last win coming in 1960. However, the Cyclones are 10-3 in their last 13 Thursday night games and for those looking for a little karma, the first night game at Jack Trice Stadium was on Oct. 20, 1984 and Iowa State nearly pulled off the upset, falling to No. 2 Oklahoma, 12-10, on ESPN. Take note that while the Cyclones are in a slide, they are 5-1 ATS over their last six games. Iowa State is a 10* play.  

The set-up: November MACtion continues on Wednesday night as the Toledo Rockets (6-2 overall, 3-1 in the MAC West) travel to Akron to take on the Zips (5-4 overall, 3-2 in the MAC East). Both schools are coming off losses, Toledo losing at home to Ohio 31-26 and Akron coming off a loss 41-20 at Buffalo. This game qualifies as what could be described as the first knockout game of the MAC football season, as the loser will be all but mathematically out of their division race. The all-time series between Akron and Toledo is tied at nine victories apiece but the Zips have claimed two out of the last three meetings in this series. Toledo: The Rockets hosted Ohio last Thursday at 6-1, having lost only to BYU 55-53 back on Sept. 30 when the Cougars kicked the game-winning FG with no time remaining on the clock. QB Logan Woodside threw for 438 yards (three TDs and 1 INT), leading the Rockets to 560 yards of total offense but Toledo’s usually stingy defense allowed Ohio U 512 yards, including 212 rushing yards by Dorian Brown.The Rockets average 39.4 PPG (19th) on 544.4 YPG (4th), led by Woodside who has completed 71.0% for 2,715 yards with 31 TDs and 5 INTs. Despite ‘ugly’ efforts against BYU and Ohio U, Toledo’s defense allows 23.5 PPG (39th) on 377.0 YPG (42nd). Akron: The Zips average 31.2 PPG (51st) on 400.6 YPG (72nd) while the defense has allowed 34.2 PPG (1208t) on 483.1 YPG (118th). Akron QB Woodson is not in the class of Toledo’s Woodside, completing 62.0% for 1,763 yards with 16 TDs and 5 INTs, and the team's running game averages 135.3 YPG (109th) on 4.5 YPC. Meanwhile, Kareem Hunt (790 yards on 4.7 YPC) leads a Toledo running game averaging 197.2 YPG. That’s bad news against an Akron defense allowing 228.7 YPG (112th). Terry Bowden took over a school which had gone 1-11 in back-to-back seasons and went 1-11 in his first season. Two 5-7 seasons followed but he led Akron to an 8-5 season, including a bowl win, the school’s second-ever bowl appearance. The pick: As noted at the top, the loser can pretty much kiss their respective diviosn titles goodbye. Yes, Akron has won two of the last three meetings but none of those matchups have come over the previous two seasons, when Toledo went 9-4 and 10-2. The Rockets are an excellent road team, having won nine of their last 10 true road contests. Let me also point out that Toledo’s games at BYU and last week at home against Ohio U are truly outliers. In Toledo's other six games here in 2016, the Rockets are allowing a modest 17.0 PPG on 320.0 YPG, which mirrors a team which allowed 20.0 PPG in going 10-2 in 2015. The Under is an 8* play.

The set-up: P.J. Fleck was hired by Western Michigan in December of 2012, making him the youngest head coach in the FBS. The Broncos went 1-11 in his first season of 2013, the program's worst season since 2004. However, he then led the Broncos to consecutive 8-5 seasons with bowl appearances in 2014 and 2015, before 2016’s breakout season. WMU beat Northwestern 22-21 on the road and then in Week 3 beat Illinois 34-10 on the road, making it the first time in program history that WMU beat two Big Ten teams in a single season. WMU improved to 6-0 with a win against his alma mater Northern Illinois in the season’s sixth week, which was enough to get the Broncos into the AP’s top-25 poll (at No. 24) for first time in Western Michigan’s history. WMU is now 8-0 (ranked No. 17) as the Broncos head to Ball State (4-4 / 1-3 in the MAC) for this Tuesday night game. Western Michigan: The last time Western Michigan started 8-0 was back in 1941, when there were only five bowl games. The Broncos didn't participate in one that season but are sure to compete in one of the 41 scheduled this December and January. More importantly, they are in the driver's seat to play in a "New Year's Day" bowl game as the highest-ranked team from the group of five conferences. The Broncos average 44.6 PPG (6th) on 502.1 YPG (14th), while allowing 19.2 PPG (19th) on 353.0 YPG (27th). Senior QB Zach Terrell completes 72.2 percent of his passes with 20 touchdowns and one interception (WMU’s first TO of the entire season came in its seventh game!). Terrell's favorite WR is Corey Davis (49 catches, FBS-most 11 TDs) and the running game (252.8 YPG on 5.2 YPC) is led by Jarvion Franklin (909 yards on 5.8 YPC with seven TDs). Ball State: The Cardinals average 440.4 YPG and allow 440.2 YPG, scoring an average of 28.0 PPG while allowing 25.4 PPG. It’s not hard to imagine them being the .500 team they actually are. The Cardinals have a sophomore QB in Riley Neal, who has had an up-and-down season (60.2 percent completions with 7 TDs and 9 INTs). Senior WR KeVonn Mabon has a team-high 50 receptions but zero touchdowns. RB James Gilbert is tied for 10th nationally and leads the MAC with 11 rushing TDs, while ranking eighth in the country with 897 rushing yards. The Ball State defense enters this game after allowing a season-high 35 points to Akron on October 22. The pick: Western Michigan coach P.J. Fleck told reporters his team is going to get everybody’s “best shot” the rest of the way. “We have an enormous challenge on Tuesday night,” Fleck said, “and our players understand that.” That statement is the key to this pick.  The Broncos are 3-0 in MAC play but 1-2 ATS, laying spreads of 17 1/2, 14 and 25 1/2 points. As for Ball State, some may be surprised to learn that the Cardinals are a perfect 3-0 ATS as an underdog in 2016, winning outright as a 6 1/2-point dog while losing by 10 as a 16 1/2-point and losing by three as a 12 1/2-point dog. Ball State is a 10* play.

The set-up: Hawaii opened 1-3 but with Dru Brown, a sophomore transfer from College of San Mateo taking over at starting QB, Hawaii has won three of four MWC games to even its record at 4-4. New Mexico is 4-3 overall (2-1 in MWC play) and will travel to Honolulu for a late Saturday night game. The Lobos sit one game behind Boise St and Wyoming (both 3-0) in the Mountain Division, while the 3-1 Rainbow Warriors trail 3-0 San Diego State (which plays Friday night at Utah St) in the West Division. New Mexico QB Lamar Jordan is not asked to do much through the air (Lobos average a meager 110.1 YPG passing) but he can sure direct the team's option offense, one which leads the nation with 374.1 YPG on the ground, averaging 6.9 YPC. Four players have more than 300 rushing yards so far, including Jordan with 333 (5.5 YPC). Owens has 687 yards on 7.8 YPC, while Gipson has 623 yards on an amazing 13.0 YPC. McQuarly may have a modest 341 rushing yards on 4.9 YPC but he’s the TD leader with 10 rushing scores. New Mexico needs to score to win, as the defense allows 33.9 PPG (106th). Brown’s averaged 259.5 YPG through the air with nine TDs and just two INTs in leading Hawaii to a 3-1 start in conference play. Hawaii surely can’t match New Mexico success at running the ball but Diocemy Saint Juste (614 yards on 6.0 YPC) leads a rushing attack averaging 183.0 YPG on 5.2 YPC. Fellow RBs Harris (328 yards on 7.1 YPC) and Lakalaka (317 yards but 10 TDs), are nice complements. Hawaii’s defense is an issue, allowing 37.4 PPG (120th) on 477.8 YPG (118th). The pick: The Lobos’ starting QB Jordan is suffering from a hamstring injury and with backup Austin Apodaca still recovering from a collarbone fracture, JaJuan Lawson could get the start. The sophomore has attempted just five passes and run only 12 times in limited action over three games. Just maybe, New Mexico’s option will not be at peak efficiency. The Rainbow Warriors took to the air in beating Air Force last week but more use of the team's trio of RBs (see above) could control the ball and eat some clock. My 10* play is on the Under. 

The set-up: A&M trailed Alabama 13-0 but early in the third quarter, took a 14-13 lead. However, before long, the Tide were putting the finishing touches on a 33-14 victory. Those things happen when one plays Alabama, especially in Tuscaloosa. The loss to the Crimson Tide doesn't completely eliminate the Aggies (6-1, 4-1 SEC) from the West Division race but it does leave them in position of needing help (maybe too much help?). There will be no “scoreboard watching” this Saturday, as Alabama has a bye and the Aggies return home to College Station to take on the over-matched Aggies of New Mexico State, a 2-5 team playing out of the Sun Belt, which is coming off a 22-19 setback at home to Georgia Southern. New Mexico State: These Aggies own a senior QB in Tyler Rogers and he’s thrown for right around 285 YPG but completes only 55.6% with 11 TDs and almost as many INTs (10). Senior RB Larry Rose III missed the first three games of the season while recovering from a sports hernia but has rushed for 281 yards in four games since his return (he rushed for almost 1,700 yards last season with 14 TDs). New Mexico State ranks amongst the worst defensive teams in the nation, allowing 41.6 PPG (125th) on 504.6 YPG (124th). Texas A&M: The loss to Alabama didn’t hurt A&M much in the polls (fell from No. 6 to No. 9 in the AP) but a game like this means little to the team’s ranking and nothing its standing in the SEC-West. A&M was dominated on both the OL and DL lines vs. Alabama, rushing for a modest 114 yards while allowing 287 rushing yards, which came right after surrendering 282 on the ground in the previous game (a double-overtime victory over Tennessee). QB Trevor Knight completed a season-low 45.2 percent of his passes and rushed for a season-low 24 yard against the Tide, while RB Trayveon Williams, who ran for 217 yards against Tennessee, was only able to scratch his way for 23 yards on nine carries. Texas A&M had not allowed an opponent more than 24 points but has now surrendered 30-plus in back-to-back games. The pick: Obviously, the Aggies of New Mexico State are not in the class of the Aggies from Texas A&M, as evidenced by the fact that the last time New Mexico State met an SEC opponent, it lost 62-42 at Kentucky (Sept. 17). Kentucky is a mediocre SEC team while A&M is ranked in the nation’s top-10 but where’s the motivation for A&M to roll up the score too much in this one? Kevin Sumlin can be expected to get a lot of younger guys some “PT” in this one and I’m taking the YUGE points (more than six TDs?) and making New Mexico State an 8* play. 

The set-up: OOOps, the Red Raiders did it again last week. The Red Raiders put up 59 points against Oklahoma last Saturday, yet lost. Tech scored 55 points against Arizona State earlier this year and also lost. Throw in losses last season despite scoring 53 points in a loss against Oklahoma State and 52 points in a loss to TCU and the Red Raiders have now lost four times in less than two full seasons, despite scoring more than 50 points. Texas Tech (3-4, 1-3 Big 12) visits Forth Worth on Saturday to take on a TCU team which is 4-3, 2-2 in the Big 12. Texas Tech: QB Patrick Mahomes II equaled the FBS all-time record for passing yards in his last outing, throwing for 734 yards in last Saturday's 66-59 loss to Oklahoma. He leads the nation with 3,313 passing yards and is tied for third with 26 TD passes. He’s the key cog in producing a nation-best 640.3 YPG of total offense for a team which ranks second in scoring (50.3 PPG). Sophomore WR Jonathan Giles is tied for the national lead with 11 TD catches to go with 53 receptions for 917 yards. However, the defense has allowed an average of 52.7 PPG during a three-game losing streak and ranks 127th (out of 128 FBS schools) in both points allowed, 43.9 PPG, on 532.7 YPG. TCU: Junior QB Kenny Hill got off to a strong start for the Horned Frogs but he’s thrown a Big 12-worst nine INTs and a modest 13 TDs on the season. The TCU offense is averaging 35.9 PPG on 497.7 YPG but is coming off a 34-10 loss to West Va., in which the Horned Frogs set season lows for points and total offense (300 yards). There is clearly the potential for a huge bounce-back outing vs. the Red Raiders defense but.... The pick: Mahomes owns a huge edge over Hill in the QB ‘battle’ and despite a horrendous defense, I’m taking the points with the Red Raiders. Make Texas Tech an 8* play.

The set-up: Cincinnati is 4-3 overall (1-3 in AAC play) as the Bearcats visit Temple (5-3 / 3-1) on Saturday afternoon. The Bearcats have been postseason regulars, having made 14 bowl appearances since 1997, including all three years under current head coach Tommy Tuberville. However, while Cincinnati needs only two wins to reach six victories to go bowling again this season, the path will be difficult with road games at Temple (here) and UCF (11/12) plus home games against BYU (11/5) and Memphis 11/18) still left among the team's final five games. Temple’s Matt Ruhle led the Owls to a 10-4 season last year and pleased all in Philly when he decided to not seek greener pastures. Down 25-7 in the first half at UCF on Oct. 15, Temple shut out the Knights in the second half and won 26-25, with the game-winning TD pass coming with one second remaining. Temple followed with a 46-30 pasting of USF last Saturday, rushing for 319 yards. Cincinnati: The Bearcats ended a two-game slide with their first AAC win of the season last week, beating East Carolina 31-19. Former starter Gunner Kiel returned to the lineup at QB after losing his job and passed for 348 yards and four TDs (who expected that?). The Cincy defense held an opponent under 20 points for the first time since opening the season with a 28-7 win over UT-Martin but all in all, the defense has been pretty decent, allowing 24.4 PPG on the year. However, after averaging 30-plus PGG over each of the last five season, this year’s team is averaging just 24.1 PPG. Temple: With back-to-back league wins over UCF and USF, Temple is back in position for a second-straight trip to the AAC title games (lost last season at Houston). The Owls are tied atop the East with South Florida at 3-1 and would love for Navy to upend USF Friday night in Tampa. The Owls can’t control that outcome of that but Temple now owns the tiebreaker over the Bulls with last week’s win, so it’s just a matter of controlling one’s own destiny. RB Ryquell Armstead ran for a career-best 210 yards last week and starting QB Philip Walker did not throw an interception for just the second time this season. The pick: After back-to-back important wins, I expect Temple to play this one close to the vest, not asking Walker, a limited passer at best, to do too much, while depending on the team's very good RB duo of Armstead (613 yards / 9 TDs) and Jahad Thomas (413 yards / 9 TDs). Kiel lost his starting job earlier for a good reason, he hadn’t played well. I don’t expect him to come anywhere close to playing as well as he did last week, against a solid Temple defense, allowing 321.5 YPG to rank 16th in the nation. The Under is an 8* play. 

The set-up: The way Michigan lost to Michigan State last season is one of those indelible moments that will never be forgotten by Wolverine or Spartan fans, alike. Michigan was 10 seconds away from winning when punter Blake O'Neill bobbled a snap and inexplicably fumbled the ball into the arms of Michigan State's Jalen Watts-Jackson, who returned the ball 38 yards for the winning score as time expired. The ‘impossible’ 27-23 win by Michigan State in Ann Arbor marked its seventh victory in the last eight meetings. The teams meet again Saturday, this time in East Lansing and considering that Michigan opened the season ranked 7th and Michigan State ranked 12th, this “revenge game” for the Wolverines was expected to be a classic. Who’da thunk that when the teams  finally got around to playing on the final Saturday of October, that Michigan could possibly be more than a three-TD favorite on the road? Michigan: Sophomore QB Wilton Speight has thrown 13 TDs and been intercepted only twice, as Michigan has averaged 225.9 YPG through the air. That’s balanced by a running game averaging 25.1 YPG on 5.5 YPC, with four backs accounting for 300-plus yards on the season. Overall, Michigan is averaging 48.7 PPG (3rd), which when one considers that the Wolverines lead the nation in five different defensive categories (most notably in scoring at 10.0 PPG and allowing 207.0 YPG), is a deadly combo. The Wolverines cruised past Illinois 41-8 to improve to 7-0 for the first time in 10 years and enter having outscored their last two opponents 119-8, heading into this battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy, while looking (expecting?) to exact a measure of revenge for last year’s ‘nightmare.’ Michigan State: The Spartans’ season has unraveled quickly and dramatically, with five consecutive losses, four by double digits. MSU sure misses QB Connor Cook. Tyler O'Connor opened as the team's starting QB but he’s been replaced the last two games by redshirt freshman Brian Lewerke. He will be making his third career start against arguably the toughest defense in the nation. He completed only 11 of 24 for 156 yards last week without a TD throw and one INT in MSU’s 28-17 loss at Maryland. The Spartans have averaged 23.1 PPG (about 3 1/2 TDs per game less than Michigan), while allowing 29.7 PPG, almost three TDs more than the Wolverines. The pick: Michigan has won 12 of its last 13 games since losing to Michigan State last season and enter this contest having held four straight opponents to 10 points or less. At 2-5, MSU’s run of nine consecutive bowl games is clearly in jeopardy and a loss here would make it all but impossible for the Spartans to reach six wins. A quick look at the history book reveals that this line has been adjusted to a degree which one could only describe as a “staggering amount,” so I’m taking the YUGE points and making Michigan State a 10* play. 

The set-up: San Diego State ended the 2015 season on a 10-game winning streak, finishing 11-3 after a 42-7 win over Cincinnati in the Hawaii Bowl. The Aztecs opened the 2016 season with three more wins, as SDSU rose to 19th in the AP poll. However, a 42-24 loss at South Alabama on October 1st saw the Aztecs fall from the rankings. However, the Aztecs visit Utah State Friday night 6-1 overall and atop the West Division of the MWC at 3-0. Utah State is hoping for a sixth straight bowl appearance but has some work to do, sitting at 3-4 overall and at 1-3, is tied for last-place with Air Force in the Mountain Division of the MWC. San Diego State: The Aztecs are averaging 32.4 PPG (50th) led by a running game averaging 252.7 YPG (14th) on 5.3 YPC. RB Donnel Pumphrey ran for just 98 yards in the team’s opener against New Hampshire but has topped 100 yards in each of SDSU’s last six games (he now owns 28, 100-yard games in his career), including two efforts of over 200 yards. He has 1,246 yards (6.5 YPC) and 13 rushing TDs here in 2016. QB Chapman completes 64.0 percent but averages only 164.4 YPG passing with nine TDs but also has thrown only three INTs. The SDSU defense has been very good, despite an ‘ugly’ effort in the loss to South Alabama. The Aztecs are allowing just 17.6 PPG (13th) on 285.7 YPG (5th). Utah State: Gary Andersen began the turnaround in Logan, earning bowl bids in 2011 and 2012 for the Aggies, the school’s first since 1997. He then left for Wisconsin with his assistant, Matt Wells, taking over at his alma mater. Wells has continued Utah State’s rebirth and has extended the school’s bowl run to five in a row. A sixth straight bowl berth is in question, as without a win here (Utah State is about a six-point dog), the Aggies would need to win three of their final four games to reach six wins, with three of those four coming on the road. Junior QB Kent Myers is a dual threat, as he’s second on the team in rushing attempts (73) and third in rushing yards (272). Myers leads the MWC in completions per game (20.1), completing 59.0 percent for 1,480 yards but with just seven TDs (four interceptions). The running game averages 178.1 YPG (59th) on 4.9 YPC and Devante Mays (208 yards in the opener), who has been out most of the season with a leg injury, appears ready to return.Utah State’s defense is allowing 24.3 PPG (46th) on 359.6 YPG (35th). The pick: SDSU is the better team and Pumphrey one of CFB’s most overlooked stars, as he currently ranks 9th on the NCAA’s all-time rushing list (barring injury, he should close his career in the top-5). However, winning in Logan is no easy task. Consider this, Utah State is 26-4 in its last 30 home games, which includes a 17-2 record in MWC games. Utah State should be more than competitive in this one and with a fairly low total (for a CFB game), the Over is a 10* play. 

complete analysis by Thursday

The set-up: Both Va. Tech and Pitt are 5-2, with the Hokies 3-1 in ACC play and the Panthers 2-1. Va. Tech’s shocking 31-17 loss at Syracuse on October 15 caused the Hokies to fall from the AP top-25 rankings but the school’s decisive 37-16 victory over Miami (Fla.) on Oct. 20 returned them to the national rankings at No. 25. The unranked Panthers need a win to keep the pressure on the Coastal Division-leading Tar Heels (4-1), who hold the tiebreaker over Pitt because of a 37-36 win. Va. Tech: The Hokies are 1-2 away from Blacksburg and the trip to Pittsburgh represents their biggest road test of the season. Virginia Tech’s last road win over the Panthers was in 1999 in the old Pitt Stadium, when both teams played in the Big East. The Panthers have won all four meetings played at Heinz Field and have won six of the past seven meetings overall. QB Jerod Evans is a JC transfer and he comes off throwing for 259 yards and two TDs against Miami and added another 98 yards and a score on the ground. He has completed 62.9 percent of his passes for 1,611 yards with 19 TDs against just INTs. The Hokies typically have a strong defense and this year is no different, as Va. Tech allows 17.9 PPG (16th) on 302.0 YPG (11th). Pittsburgh: The Panthers also own a good QB in Nathan Peterman, who ranks fourth in the ACC in passer efficiency (150.3) with 11 TDs and two INTs plus he’s been sacked a conference-low five times. Pittsburgh owns a deep stable of RBs, the best of whom is James Connor (531 yards and 7 TDs). The unit ranks 20th in the nation with 239.1 YPG on 5.1 YPC. Pittsburgh’s rush D is in the class of Va. Tech’s (Pitt allows 96.6 YPG and Va. Tech allows 103.6) but overall, Pitt is allowing 31.4 PPG (90th) on 395.4 YPG (60th). The pick: Va. Tech’s road woes at Pitt is a concern but It’s hard to envision Pitt’s D handling dual-threat QB Evans (also owns 417 yards rushing on 4.9 YPC with 3 TDs), as Arizona State, Oklahoma and Texas Tech are the only Power 5 teams that have allowed more pass yards per game than Pitt (298.9). The Panthers are second in the ACC in scoring (38.4 PPG which ranks 23rd nationally) and have scored at least 36 points in six consecutive games, the longest active streak in FBS and a school record. The Hokies control their own destiny in the ACC’s Coastal Division by virtue of their 34-3 win over the Tar Heels and a win at Pitt will also give them a tie-breaker edge over the Panthers, as well. A victory would keep the 25th-ranked Hokies on track for an appearance in the conference title game Dec. 3 in Orlando. Make Va. Tech an 8* play.

The set-up: Mike Leach had 3-9 seasons in two of his first three years at Washington State but his 2015 team finished 9-4, after a 20-14 Sun Bowl win over Miami. However, the Cougars opened the 2016 season with back-to-back losses to Eastern Washington and Boise State, before rebounding to win four in a row (4-2, 3-0 Pac-12). Arizona St checks in at 5-2 (2-2 in the Pac-12 South) as the Sun Devils get set to host the Cougars on Saturday night. Washington State: Leach's "Air Raid" offense is led by QB Luke Falk who ranks fifth in the FBS in passing (352.2 yards per game), completing 70.6 percent with 16 TDs and 5 INTs. The offense is averaging 41.0 PPG (14th) on 509.5 YPG (18th). Washington State is off to a 3-0 start in conference play for the first time since 2003 and goes for a fifth straight win Saturday night in Tempe. Arizona State:  The Sun Devils got starting QB Manny Wilkins back from a foot injury at Colorado last week but he still didn't appear to be 100 percent.  He’s passed for 1,382 yards with a modest six TD passes (5 INTs) and run for 233 with four TDs. The RB duo of Demario Richard (122 carries, 495 yards, 2 TDs) and Kalen Ballage (68 carries, 324 yards, 9 TDs) is a big help plus WR Tim White has 44 catches. ASU comes in averaging 36.3 PPG. The pick. When one thinks of a Leach-coached team, his "Air Raid" offense is the first thing that comes to mind and Falk implements it well. However, WSU is off to that 3-0 start in the Pac-12 as much for its defense, as its passing game, as the Cougars have allowed only 37 points in wins at Stanford and home to UCLA over the last two Saturdays. It’s hard to forget ASU’s 68-55 win over Texas Tech back on Sep. 10, the one in which Ballage scored eight TDs (seven rushing). However, ASU has averaged just 19.7 PPG over the team's last three Pac-12 contests. The Under is an 8* play.

The set-up: Oklahoma opened the season ranked No. 3 in the AP’s preseason poll but as has happened so often since the Sooners won the 2000 national title, earning head coach Bob Stoops the nickname “Big Game Bob,” Oklahoma pretty much took itself out of serious CFP consideration with losses to Houston (September 3) and to Ohio State on September 17. The sooners didn’t just lose those two key games, they were beaten 33-23 by Houston (as almost a two-TD favorite) and at home by Ohio St, 45-24. Texas Tech comes in 3-3 (1-2 in the Big-12), after an embarrassing 48-17 home loss to West Virginia. Oklahoma: QB Baker Mayfield was named the Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year in 2013 when he played in eight games as a freshman walk-on for the Red Raiders, passing for 2,315 yards and 12 touchdowns while completing 64.1 percent of his passes. He eventually walked on at Oklahoma and now returns to Jones AT&T Stadium leading the 16th-ranked Sooners against his former team and head coach. Mayfield has flourished with the Sooners, passing for 3,700 yards with 36 TDs and 7 INTs last season and enters this game completing 70.6% for 1,803 yards with 16 TDs and 5 INTs. RB Samaje Perine suffered an unidentified muscle pull in last week’s 38-17 win over Kansas State and will be primarily replaced by Joe Mixon in this game. Oklahoma is averaging 202.7 YPG rushing to rank 38th in the nation. Texas Tech: Speaking of QBs, Patrick Mahomes II has become one of the most prolific QBs in the nation at Texas Tech. Mahomes enters Saturday's contest as the nation's leader in passing yards (2,579 yards, 429.8 YPG) and total offense (455.2 YPG). He also ranks second in points responsible for (168) and leads the Big-12 in TD passes (21). However, Tech averages only 93.8 YPG on the ground (124th) and while the offense averages 48.8 PPG (5th), the defense allows 40.2 PPG (124th). The unit also ranks in the FBS bottom-30 in total defense (479.2 YPG), rushing defense (204.8 YPG) and passing defense (274.3 YPG) while forcing only five turnovers. The pick: Texas Tech was held to a full 38 points below their per-game average last week against the Mountaineers in the 48-17 loss (Red Raiders entered averaging 55.2 PPG). The team’s 17 points last week marked a 22-game low and snapped the team’s NCAA-record streak of nine straight home games with at least 50 points. As for the Sooners, now that the team's CFP aspirations have been dashed, Oklahoma should be a hard team to beat the rest of the season. The Sooners have won their last eight true road games overall and will make it nine in a row here with plenty of room to spare. Lay the points and make Oklahoma an 8* play.

The set-up: Eight SEC teams made the most recent AP top-25 poll, released on October 18. Two of them, No. 17 Arkansas (5-2, 1-2 SEC) and No. 21 Auburn (4-2, 2-1 SEC) will meet on Saturday. In the 25 meetings overall, Auburn has outscored Arkansas by just 633-629, although 11 of the past 15 meetings were decided by 17 points or more. It took four overtimes last year before the Razorbacks escaped with a 54-46 win after the teams finished regulation deadlocked at 24-24. The Razorbacks have won four of their last six overall matchups with ranked opponents and three straight on the road. The Tigers are the third consecutive ranked opponent for Arkansas, which rebounded from a 49-30 loss to top-ranked Alabama with a 34-30 win over then-No. 12 Ole Miss last week. Arkansas: The Razorbacks come in 5-2 (1-2 in the SEC) featuring the SEC’s leading rusher in Rawleigh Williams III (785 yards on 5.6 YPC with 5 TDs), who had 180 yards against Ole Miss. Arkansas averages 179.7 YPG on the ground and QB Austin Allen is completing 63.0% for 1,861 yards with 18 TDs and just  6 INTs. Allen also leads the SEC in passing yards and TD passes plus is the only player in the nation with multiple TD passes in seven games this season. The Razorbacks have put up mediocre defensive numbers (27.9 PPG on 398.9 YPG) and have really struggled to stop top-flight offenses, allowing 41.3 PPG in SEC play. Auburn: The Tigers lost two of its first three games to a pair of highly ranked teams in Clemson and Texas A&M but Auburn has reeled off four straight wins, since.  Head coach Gus Malzahn credits a resurgence in the offense to the bounce-back by his team. QB Sean White (69.7% with 6 TDs and 2 INTs) is beginning to play with more confidence plus Kamryn Pettway (505 yards on 5.5 YPC with 4 TDs) is joining with starter Kerryon Johnson (538 yards on 5.1 YPC with 6 TD) to give the Tigers a one-two punch at RB (the Tigers average 262.8 YPG on the ground to rank 12th in the nation). Defensively, Auburn is allowing 16.0 PPG (11th) on 346.8 YPG (30th). The pick: Auburn has scored 96 points in its last two games and as noted above, the Arkansas defense has struggled in SEC play, allowing 45, 49 and 30 points. Auburn’s defense is top-notch but the Arkansas offense is well-balanced and has not scored less than 30 points in any of its last six games. Make the Over a 10* play.

The set-up: Alabama took apart Tennessee in Knoxville 49-10 last Saturday, outgaining the Vols 594-163 in yards, while rushing for 438 yards. The Tide added a 58-yard ‘pick-6’ and a 79-yard punt return TD, giving them 11 non-offensive TDs in 2016. Freshman QB Jalen Hurts has developed into star, accounting for 17 TDs (nine passing, eight rushing) while passing for 1,385 yards and rushing for 428. Alabama takes the nation’s longest active winning streak (19 in row) into a home game against a surprising Texas A&M on Saturday. The Aggies began the season unranked but after a 6-0 start, come into this showdown against the nation’s No.1-ranked team at No. 6 in the latest AP poll. Texas A&M: The Aggies lead the SEC in total offense (532.8 yards per game / that ranks 8th nationally) and rushing offense (274.3 / that ranks 7th nationally). Freshman RB Trayveon Williams (SEC-leading 704 rushing yards, five TDs) averages an amazing 8.6 YPC while senior QB Travis Knight (a former Sooner) has been effective as both a runner (502 yards, nine scores) and a passer (1,500 yards, nine TDs). Knight only completes 53.5% but he has sure been effective, as A&M is averaging 40.2 PPG (18th), almost two full TDs more than last year’s 27.8 average. The defense allows more yards (437.45 YPG) than coach Kevin Sumlin would like but the bottom line is A&M is allowing just 19.2 PPG (22nd). Alabama: Nick Saban has been devastating the SEC since arriving in Tuscaloosa 10 year ago and it would be impossible to find much wrong with this year’s edition. I talked about Hurts earlier but also note that RB Damien Harris has run for a team-leading 572 yards on 8.3 YPC, as Alabama averages 265.7 YPG on the ground (10), balanced by the team's 239.0 YPG average through the air. The Tide “D” allows 15.0 PPG (8th) on 274.7 YPG (5th), including 64.6 YPG on the ground (1st).  The pick: Alabama seeks its 12th straight victory over a ranked opponent and this marks its third ranked opponent in three weeks and fifth already this season. However, while Alabama is 29-2 SU at home since the start of the 2012 season, it is only 15-16 ATS in that span. I noted earlier that while A&M is giving up almost 450 yard per game, it’s allowing less than 20 points per game. That’s partly (primarily?) due to a defense which has seven interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries on the season. Upset alert? Maybe not but the points are YUGE! Take them and make Texas A&M a 10* play.  

The set-up: The Badgers opened 4-0 but have now lost hard-fought games to two of the nation’s top-3 teams, 14-7 at Michigan and 30-23 (OT) at home to Ohio State, with a bye week sandwiched between those games. No rest for the weary this Saturday, as the Badgers visit Iowa and are in desperate need of a win to remain in the Big Ten West race. A loss potentially would put the Badgers three games behind front-running Nebraska, which plays host to lowly Purdue this week. Iowa (5-2 / 3-1 in the Big Ten) can stay right in the West race by moving to 4-1 by beating Wisconsin. Wisconsin: Badgers head coach Paul Chryst is primarily concerned about bouncing back from last week's home loss to Ohio State (Wisconsin led 16-6 at halftime) and getting his team healthy. Wisconsin came out of the Ohio State game banged up. A long list of players are questionable on this week's injury report, including linebacker Vince Biegel, nose tackle Olive Sagapolu, wide receiver Robert Wheelwright, linebacker Zack Baun, offensive lineman Jon Dietzen, running back Taiwan Deal and safety Keelon Brookins. The Badgers ran for 236 yards against Ohio State last week as senior Corey Clement recorded a season-high 164 to push his total to 483 in five games. However, Wisconsin is averaging a modest 174.0 YPC on 4.0 YPC to rank 67th. Two QBs have a combined for seven TDs and eight INTs, while completing 58.7 percent of their passes. Freshman QB Hornibrook is the starter now, and finished with a career-high 214 yards passing versus the Buckeyes. Iowa: The Hawkeyes have rebounded from shocking home losses to North Dakota State and Northwestern but is now back in the thick of things in the Big Ten West, trailing only 3-0 Nebraska at 3-1. C.J. Beathard is a solid QB (60.1% with 11 TDs and 4 INTs) but nothing special. Wadley (592 / 7.4 YPC / 8 TDs) and Daniels, Jr (589 yards / 5.4 YPC / 6 TDs) equally contribute to a running game averaging 180.0 YPG (4.8 YPC). The defense is typically solid, allowing 189.1 PPG (21st). The pick:  The Heartland Trophy game between Iowa and Wisconsin is always hard-hitting and usually highly competitive. Iowa won in Madison 10-6 last year but the previous three meetings were all won by the Badgers, with all three being played in Iowa City. The knee-jerk reaction is to call for a Badger letdown off the back-to-back losses but remember Wisconsin’s three straight wins here in Iowa City plus the fact that since the start of the 2014, the Badgers are an impressive 8-2 SU in true road games. If North Dakota St. and Northwestern (on Homecoming, no less) can win in Iowa City, why not Wisconsin. The Badgers get to host Nebraska at home on Oct. 29 but losing here makes that meeting moot. Wisconsin’s defense, allowing 15.2 PPG (9th) is the difference and makes the Badgers a 10* play.

The set-up: Oregon fans thought things were bad when last year’s team finished just 9-4, after losing 47-41 (in 3 OTs) to TCU in the Alamo Bowl. I say “just 9-4,” because the Ducks had previously won 10 or more games each season from 2006 through 2014, sporting a combined 80-14 (.851) record. Oregon had last weekend off and that has to be good news because after opening with back-to-back home wins of 53-28 over UC-Davis and 44-26 over Virginia, Oregon has lost four in a row. Cal has also been a disappointment in 2016, going 3-3 and just 1-2 in Pac-12 play, despite the fact that Texas Tech graduate transfer Davis Webb has made fans hardly miss QB Jared Goff, the NFL’s overall No. 1 pick of the 2016 draft. Oregon: The Ducks have not just lost four in a row (three straight in Pac-12 play) but the defense has been shredded to the tune of allowing 49.3 PPG. QB Dakota Prukop completed 66.2% for 1,173 with 8 TDs and just 2 INTs but was been benched after the team’s third straight loss, replaced by freshman QB Justin Herbert. Prokop is probably wishing he had stayed at Montana State. Herbert is expected to make his second career start after completing 62 percent of his passes and throwing for 179 yards and a pair of TDs with one interception against an outstanding Washington defense which has allowed 14.2 PPG on 317.5 YPG on the season (one reason the Huskies are ranked no. 5 in the nation). California: Cal is also coming off a bye week but it came at a good time, after QB Davis Webb was limited against Oregon State with a hand injury back on October 8. Webb is expected to OK on Friday and as noted earlier, he’s thrown 2,256 yards with 22 TDs and 7 INTs, leading an offense which averages 42.3 PPG (12th) on 530.2 YPG (10th). However, Cal’s defense is as bad as Oregon’s (maybe worse?), allowing 40.0 PPG (123rd) on 494.7 YPG (121st). The pick: Oregon’s freshman QB will be helped by the Pac-12’s league’s top running game, averaging 257.8 YPG on 6.1 YPC. Friday’s game plan figures to be filled with a heavy dose of Royce Freeman (513 yards on 7.7 YPC  with 7 TDs) and Tony Brooks-James (331 yards on 7.0 YPC and 6 TDs) against a porous Cal run defense which ranks 127th (of 128 teams) by allowing 283.8 YPG! Eating up the clock will keep Oregon's “D” off the field, as well as Cal’s Davis Webb on the sidelines. Yes, the Ducks are off to their worst start in 30 years but they’ve won their last seven games against Cal. Oregon is a 10* play.