The set-up: Willie Taggert took over at USF in 2013, inheriting a team coming off a 3-9 season. The Bulls went just 2-10 in his first season and barely improved in 2014, going 4-8. However, the Bulls won their final four regular season games (averaged 51.0 PPG in their final three), to get a bowl invite at 8-4. Yes, USF lost to Western Ky 45-35 in the Boca Raton Bowl but with seven starters returning on both side of the ball, USF fans looked forward to the 2016 season. Those high expectations have been well-grounded, as USF has opened 6-1 and leads the AAC East at 3-0. Temple got great news after its 2015 season, when its highly sought after head coach, Matt Ruhle, deiced to stay in Philadelphia, after leading Temple to an appearance in last year’s AAC title game and a bowl appearance. Temple lost both of those final two games but the team’s 10-4 season marked just the second time in school history a Temple team had reached the 10-win mark (the Owls were 10-2 in 1979). Temple comes into this game 4-3 overall and 2-1 in the AAC East, so a win here is a must if the Owls have any hope of getting back to the AAC’s championship game USF: Junior QB Quinton Flowers has thrown for 1,535 yards (13 TDs / 5 INTs) plus leads the team in rushing with 655 yards (7.0 YPC), while scoring seven TDs. This explosive offense is scoring 44.1 PPG (8th) on 506.4 YPG (15th), which includes a running game which averages 269.1 YPG (8th) on YPC. RB Marlon Mack (592 yards on 7.0 YPC with 9 TDs), is a nice complement to Flowers’ dual skills. The USF defense allows 25.9 PPG (59th) on 436.1 YPG (62nd). Temple: The Owls’ senior QB Phillip Walker has completed just 56.2 percent on the year but he was 4-of-4 on Temple’s game-winning drive last Saturday, as the Owls eked out a much-needed 26-25 victory at UCF. Walker owns a 10-10 TD-to-INT ratio but while Temple doesn’t run it as well as USF, the RB duo of sophomore Ryquell Armstead and senior Jahad Thomas has combined for 760 yards and 14 TDs. Temple’s defense ranks second in the AAC in total defense, allowing 317.1 YPG (that ranks 16th, nationally). Temple allows 23.0 PPG, which ranks 38th, overall. The pick: Temple didn’t have just any “ordinary” comeback win last week at UCF, but rather the Owls battled back from an 18-point deficit to win on a last-second TD. “It showed the tremendous maturity of our kids,” Owls coach Matt Rhule told reporters of his team, which has won three of its last four and can tie USF for first place in the AAC East. “They just kept playing, playing, playing. I’m proud of them.” However, the Temple defense is up against an USF offense which has scored at least 35 points in each of its last 11 games! Temple fell 44-23 at USF last season, a game which started the Bulls’ scoring streak of 35 or more. Holding this offense in check is not likely and note that aside from the 55-point debacle against Florida State in USF's only loss, the Bulls’ defense has given up just 21.0 PPG. USF is an 8* play.

The set-up:  Boise St. has seemed more ‘mortal’ in recent years, going 8-5 in 2013 and then 9-4 last season. After all, the Broncos have gone to 14 consecutive bowls from 2002 through 2015, winning 11 or more games in 10 of those 14 seasons (finished in the final AP 15 in seven of those years). This year’s team is off to a 6-0 start and comes in ranked 14th in the latest AP poll. BYU opened the 2016 season having been to 11 consecutive bowls (starting in 2005) but after a season-opening two-point win over Arizona, the Cougars lost to Utah (by one point), to UCLA (by three points) and to West Va. (by three points). In danger of falling to 1-4, BYU beat Toledo 55-53, kicking a game-winning FG on that game’s final play. A 31-14 upset at Michigan St. and a 28-21 (2 OT) win at home over Miss. St has followed, meaning BYU enters this game at 4-3. BYU: Senior RB Jamaal Williams became the school's all-time leading rusher during Friday's 28-21 double-overtime victory over Mississippi State. He has 3,468 yards, surpassing Harvey Unga (3,455 from 2006-09) and has rushed for 942 yards (2nd-most nationally) on 5.7 YPC with 10 TDs this season. He complements senior QB Taysom Hill who has passed for 1,420 yards, while adding 324 yards and four TDs on the ground. However, Hill has just a 9-8 TD-to-INT ratio. BYU’s defense is no better than average, allowing 25.1 PPG (52nd) on 401.9 YPG (67th). Boise State: The Broncos own quite a QB/RB combo in Brett Rypien and Jeremy McNichols. Rypien threw for 3,353 yards with 20 TDs and 8 INTs last season but already has 1,622 passing yards in six games this season, along with 12 TDs and just 3 INTs.McNichols, a junior RB, had a career-best 217 yards in Saturday’s 28-23 win over Colorado St. (his second 200-yard outing of the season) and has run for 775 yards (5.2 YPC) with 11 TDs on the season. He also has 20 receptions and has added 3 TD catches. Boise State’s offense is averaging 35.3 PPG (36th) and its defense has allowed a modest 19.3 PPG (23rd). That’s a pretty sweet ‘daily double!’ The pick: Boise State has won four of the previous six meetings but won’t forget last year’s game, a 35-24 BYU win in Provo in Boise State’s second game of the season (before Rypien took over at QB). The Broncos were one play from a victory last season when Cougars QB Tanner Mangum threw a 35-yard, fourth-down 'Hail Mary' pass to Mitchell Juergens to give BYU a four-point lead with 45 seconds left.Then BYU added a 50-yard interception return to punctuate the unlikely 35-24 win. Boise State will surely not forget but revenge will not come easily for the Broncos Thursday night, even on their famous blue turf. SIX of BYU’s seven games this season have been nail-biters. Five games in which BYU has gone 2-3 have been decided by a combined total of just 10 points and last Saturday’s 28-21 win was of the double-OT variety. Take the points and make BYU a 10* play.

The set-up: Mark Richt spent 15 years at Georgia and led the Bulldogs to a 145-541 record and a bowl invite in each season but that was not good enough for him to keep his job. He was quickly scooped up by Miami-Fla and the Hurricanes opened the 2016 at 4-0, earning a No. 10 ranking in the AP poll of Oct. 2. However, the ‘Canes lost another tough one to FSU, falling 20-19 for a 7th straight time to the Seminoles. That defeat came at home, as did last Saturday's 20-13 loss to North Carolina, dropping Miami from the top-25. Va Tech also fell out of the top-25 last Saturday, with a shocking 31-17 loss at Syracuse, as more than a three-TD favorite. Miami: The “canes’ running game has produced just 201 yards rushing in their back-to-back losses (on 3.1 YPC), as Mark Walton (566 yards on 5.6 YPC and 8 TDs) and Joe Yearby (434 yards on 6.8 YPC and 6 TDs) have been kept in check with Walton gaining a modest 121 yards and Yearby only 113. QB Brad Kaaya is a talent but he was just 16 of 31 for 224 yards without a TD pass against the Tar Heels. Miami’s defense remains top-notch, allowing just 14.0 PPG (6th) on 313.5 YPG (15th). Va. Tech: The Hokies looked awful at Syracuse, allowing the Orange to roll up 561 yards and 32 FDs. QB Dungey passed for 311 yards (added 106 yards rushing) and Syracuse also connected on an 84-yard halfback-option TD pass. QB Jerod Evans (ACC-best 170.7 QB rating) has thrown for 1,352 yards with 17 TD passes with just 2 INTs, while rushing for 319 yards and two TDs. Note that despite its Carrier Dome meltdown, the Va. Tech defense ranks 7th in yards allowed (291.5 YPG) and 15th in points allowed (18.2 PPG). The pick: Richt lost three games in a row just once during his 15 years at Georgia and sure needs to avoid that happening here in Year-One of his stay at Miami. Justin Fuente (from Memphis) is in his first year at Va. Tech, taking over for the legendary Frank Beamer, and this game is likely to either jump-start or way-lay the remainder of the Hokies schedule. Much is on the line in this one and I believe two excellent defenses ‘rule’ the game. The Under is a 10* play.

The set-up: UNLV travels to Hawaii late Saturday to take on the resurgent Rainbow Warriors. The Rebels are 2-4 (1-1 in MWC play) but Hawaii, after opening 1-3 in non-conference action, has posted back-to-back wins of 38-17 at home against Nevada on October 1 and then 34-17 last Saturday at San Jose State 34-17. UNLV: The Rebels’ football program has been in shambles for quite some time now and second-year head coach Tony Sanchez (of Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas fame) saw his 2015 team go just 3-9. UNLV has opened 2-4 in 2016 but 0-3 on the road which can hardly be a surprise. After all, UNLV entered the 2016 having gone a woeful 7-52 SU in true road games over the previous 10 seasons. UNLV’s starting QB Johnny Stanton remains out with a knee injury and has been replaced by Dalton Sneed. In Sneed’s first-ever start (October 1 at home against Fresno St), he rushed for 147 yards and threw for 129 yards, as UNLV was turnover-free in a 45-20 win!   Hawaii: Dru Brown, a sophomore transfer from College of San Mateo, took over as starting QB in Hawaii’s MWC opener against Nevada. He’s led the Rainbow Warriors to back-to-back wins (see above), completing 76.5 percent of his passes for 509 yards with 4 TDs and zero INTs in those two contests. RB Diocemy Saint Juste leads the Rainbow Warriors in rushing with 502 yards but while Hawaii’s offense is clicking these last two games, the defense ranks 116th in yards allowed (479.7 YPG) and 115th in points allowed (38.5 PPG) on the season. The pick: UNLV beat Hawaii 41-21 last year in Las Vegas and in four games between the two teams, the final score has averaged 67.0 PPG. This will not be a defensive struggle and note UNLV’s offense, despite scoring just six points against San Diego St. last week, comes in averaging 31.2 PPG. The Rebels also own a running game which featured four players with more than 200 yards on the year, with the unit ranking 17th in the nation at 246.3 YPG while averaging 5.8 YPC. Hawaii as this much of a favorite? No way. UNLV is a 10* play. 

The set-up: Boise State has opened 5-0 (2-0 in MWC play) and hosts 3-3 Colorado State (1-1 in the MWC) on Saturday, having risen to No. 15 in the AP poll (Broncos were unranked at the beginning of the season). Colorado State: The Rams trailed Utah State last Saturday by 14 points but ended the game on a 21-0 run over the last two-plus quarters for a 31-24 victory. However, freshman QB Collin Hill (1,096 yards with 8 TDs and INTs) was lost for the season with a torn ACL in his left knee. "That's football. You're going to have injuries, you're going to have setbacks, you're going to have some adversity," Rams head coach Mike Bobo said at a press conference. Junior Nick Stevens has regained the starting QB position he lost after a poor season-opening performance by default. However, he wasn’t bad in 2015, passing for 2,679 yards and 21 TDs and 12 INTs. CSU is averaging a very modest 24.8 PPG (96th), while the defense is allowing 28.7 PPG (74th). Boise State: Sophomore QB Brett Rypien is flying under the radar but he’s coming off a career-best five TD passes in last week's 49-21 victory over New Mexico despite playing only 2 1/2 quarters. Rypien has passed for 1,415 yards with 11 TDs and 3 INTs, with WRs Sperbeck (19.1 YPC) and Wilson (18.8 YPC) each hauling in 5 TD catches apiece. RB McNichols (558 yards on 5.1 YPC with 9 TDs), leads a so-so running game averaging 154.4 YPG. The defense is allowing a modest 18.6 PPG (19th) on 370.6 YPG (46th). The pick: Boise State is no longer an elite national program (of years past!) but the weakness of the MWC may allow this team to go undefeated. The Broncos are a big favorite here (around 4 TDs) but they are coming off back-to-back revenge wins over Utah State and New Mexico. Boise St. also has a revenge game up next against BYU on a short week (Thursday, Oct. 20), so the Broncos may be a little flat for this one. The Rams’ 21-0 run to seal last Saturday’s win against Utah State (on Homecoming, no less), should give the Rams some confidence. This game may be closer that the pointspred indicates but as for me, it’s a 10* play on the Under.

The set-up: Arizona State (5-1, 2-1 Pac-12) visits Boulder to take on Colorado (4-2, 2-1 Pac 12). The two schools are currently tied atop the Pac-12’s South Division with Utah, so the winners will be no worse than tied at the top regardless of how Utah does at Oregon St. Arizona State: QB questions will be front and center this week as ASU saw its third QB, redshirt freshman Brady White, go down with a season-ending foot injury in the fourth quarter of last week’s 23-20 win over UCLA. The Sun Devils were able to bounce back nicely from a 41-20 loss at USC on October 1 but White being lost for the season puts a damper on that victory. Head coach Todd Graham was forced to pull the redshirt off of Dillon Sterling-Cole, as the Sun Devils’ regular starter, Manny Wilkins, has been out with a high-ankle sprain. However, the latest update is that Wilkins will play Saturday. Colorado: The Buffs’ redshirt freshman Steven Montez has played well in winning two of three starts after senior QB Sefo Liufau suffered an ankle injury September 17 against Michigan but Liufau’s now close to full health and head coach Mike MacIntyre likely will have a tough decision to make before Saturday’s game. The Buffaloes have made great strides on both sides of the ball in 2016, improving offensively from averaging 397 YPG and 24.6 PPG last season, to ranking 17th in offense at 504.4 YPG while scoring 38.8 PPG (28th). On the defensive side of the ball, Colorado's gone from allowing 417 YPG and 27.5 PPG to holding opponents to 331.8 YPG (23rd) and 20.7 PPG (31st). The pick: The return of dual-threat Wilkins (1,233 passing yards, 254 rushing on the season) is great news for ASU fans. Colorado fans (and maybe the Buffs themselves) have to be down after rolling to back-to-back wins 41-38 at Oregon and 47-6 at home to Oregon St, as Colorado was held under 28 points for the first time all season in last Saturday's 21-17 loss to USC. It also made Colorado’s stay in the AP’s top-25 rankings (at No. 21), its first since November of 2005, last just one week. Colorado’s home win over Oregon St. was somewhat of an outlier, as the victory was just the Buffs’ third home win in 23 Pac 12 home games going back to the start of 2011 when the school joined the Pac 12. What’s more, Arizona’s 48-23 win in Tempe in 2015 makes the Sun Devils 5-0 vs. the Buffs in the schools’ five Pac 12 meetings, with ASU winning by an average margin of 30.0 PPG. Arizona St. is a 10* play. 

The set-up: Western Kentucky (3-3, 1-1 in C-USA) visits Middle Tennessee State (4-1, 2-0 in C-USA) on Saturday. The home team sits atop the C-USA East, tied with Old Dominion and FIU, so the visiting Hilltoppers can ill-afford to lose here and fall to 1-2 (MTSU would be 3-0, ODU has a bye and FIU plays at Charlotte). Western Kentucky: The Hilltoppers trailed La. Tech 49-24 in the middle of the third quarter a week ago Thursday but made a furious rally, as a blocked punt and Mike White scoring passes of 31, 8 and 11 yards pulled WKU within three before it fell short, 55-52 WKU’s pass D was shredded in that contest, as  the Bulldogs’ QB, Ryan Higgins, passed for 454 yards and 5 TDs. That effort leaves Western Ky ranked 115th in pass D, allowing 290.7 YPG. QB Mike White has thrown for 1,707 yards while completing 65.8% with 14 TDs and just 3 INTs. He owns a pair of excellent wide-outs in Taylor (42 catches / 4 TDs) and Norris (36 catches / 8 TDs). Middle Tennessee State: The Blue Raiders also own a prolific QB in Brent Stockstill, who has thrown for 1,657 yards (in just five games) while completing 61.7% with 15 TDs and only 4 INTs. Multi-dimensional RB I’Tavius Mathers, an Ole Miss transfer, has run for 582 yards (6.3 YPC & 8 TDs) plus has 20 receptions and two more TDs. This offense can surely trade scores with Western Ky, as MTSU averages 37.6 PPG (32nd) but the Blue Raiders can also play some defense, allowing 23.0 PPG, which ranks 40th in the nation. The pick: It may look easy to say “over,” especially if one looks at last year’s game, a 58-28 Western Ky win. However, I expect the home team to dictate play here and for this contest rto stay below this huge number. The Under is an 8* play. 

The set-up: West Va. edged Arizona St. last year 43-42 in the Cactus Bowl to finish 8-5, the school’s best record since the Mountaineers went 10-3 in 2011. No. 20 West Virginia is off to a 4-0 start (1-0 in the Big 12) and will visit Lubbock to take on a Texas Tech team which has opened 3-2 (1-1 in Big 12 play). West Va. allowed 32 points to BYU but on the season has allowed a modest 20.0 PPG and will take on a Texas Tech team which averages 649.8 YPG in total offense (2nd), ranks first nationally in first downs and is second in third down conversion success (53 percent), while scoring 55.2 PPG (2nd). This is a classic offense vs. defense showdown. West Virginia: The Mountaineers may be bragging about their defense these days but they own a balanced offense led by QB Skyler Howard (65.8% for 1272 yards with 7 TDs and 4 INTs) and a running game averaging 187.2 YPG on 4.6 YPC. The RB duo of Crawford (331 yards on 5.5 YPC) and Shell (244 yards on 4.8 YPC) provides a nice balance for Howard. The kicking game is also in good hands, as PK Mike Molina is 14-for-14 on extra points and 5-for-6 on FGs.

Texas Tech: QB Pat Mahomes leads the nation in passing yards per game (454.8) and total offense (487.2 yards per game). He’s completed 166 of 228 passes for 2,274 yards with 20 TDs and four INTs, despite being bothered again by an injured shoulder. Mahomes gets very little help from a running game which averages 105.8 YPG (121st) on just 3.6 YPC. The Red Raiders’ biggest problem is a defense which allows 38.6 PPG (116th) on 445.0 YPG (99th). The pick: Texas Tech enters this game having averaged of 60.1 points during its last nine home games but takes on a West Va. defense has recorded more interceptions (five) than TD passes (four) so far in 2016. Kliff Kingsbury’s seat in Lubbock keeps getting hotter, as last week’s 44-38 loss to Kansas St. has become tiresome. Tech’s other loss in 2016 came when the team scored 55 points against Arizona St. but allowed 68 points. Texas Tech lost six times last year and now twice here in 2016. The team averaged 39.1 PPG in those losses and it’s getting old. West Va. is 10* play.

The set-up: San Diego State (4-1, 1-0 in MWC play) ended the 2015 season on a 10-game winning streak, finishing 11-3 after 42-7 win over Cincinnati in the Hawaii. The Aztecs opened the 2016 season with three more wins, as SDSU rose to 19th in the AP poll. However, a 42-24 loss at South Alabama on October 1st saw the Aztecs fall from the rankings. Fresno State (1-5, 0-2 in MWC play) plays host to SDSU Friday night, hoping to revive its 2016 season. San Diego State: The Aztecs are averaging 33.6 PPG, led by a running game averaging 236.8 YPG (22nd) on 5.2 YPC. RB Donnel Pumphrey ran for just 98 yards in the team’s opener against New Hampshire but has topped 100 yards in each of SDSU’s last four games (he now owns 26, 100-yard games in his career), including two efforts of over 200 yards. He has 891 yards (6.9 YPC) and nine rushing TDs. Balancing the offense is QB Christian Chapman, who has completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 912 yards and eight TDs with just two INTs. He’s a huge step up from the team’s QBs of the past two seasons. Fresno State: Tim DeRuyter took over at Fresno State in 2012 and led the Bulldogs to three straight bowl games, winning a combined 20 games his first two years at the school. However, the team fell to 3-9 in 2015 and has now opened 1-5, beating only Sacramento State. The offense averages just 23.5 PPG (102nd), while the defense allows 36.3 PPG (110th). The pick: The game may look like a mismatch on paper but remember the Aztecs’ game at South Alabama on October 1, in which the team lost by 18 points as a 18 1/2-point choice. The Bulldogs only lost 21-7 to the Aztecs last year and that game was played in San Diego. This huge home dog is very ‘live.’ Fresno State is a 10* play.

Duke: I guess one can make the case that the Blue Devils won 38-35 in South Bend against Notre Dame, running up 498 totals yards but these days, a win over the Fighting Irish is hardly anything to brag about. Duke (3-3, 0-2 in the ACC) is coming off a 13-6 win over Army, as the two teams played in torrential rain conditions brought on by Hurricane Matthew. QB Daniel Jones completed just 7 of his 15 pass attempts for 41 yards under extremely difficult conditions. However, the QB leads all freshmen nationally in pass completions (132) while ranking second among first-year players in passing yards (1,455) and total offensive yards (1,634) but has more INTs (eight) than TD passes (seven). Duke came into the 2016 season off four consecutive bowl appearances, averaging over 30 PPG each season. However, this year’s team is averaging just 24.5 PPG to rank 98th of 128 FBS teams. Louisville: The Cardinals haven’t played since October 1, when they lost 42-36 at Clemson. QB Lamar Jackson failed to account for at least five TDs in a game for the first time this season against Clemson but still accumulated 457 total yards. He ranks second in the country in total yardage (462.6) and leads the nation in rushing TDs (14). He’s passed for 1,625 yards (14-4 ratio) and run for 688 yards on 7.5 YPC. Louisville ranks first in both scoring (58.0 PPG) and total yards (659.2 per). The Cardinals' last home game was September 17 (a 63-20 win over Florida State), so this will be the team’s first home game in almost a month and its first since losing at Clemson. The pick: Louisville could have put an early stranglehold on the ACC with a win in Death Valley but Clemson rallied for two fourth-quarter TDs and sealed the win by stopping Louisville a yard short of a FD inside Clemson's five-yard-line with just about 30 seconds to play. Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino told reporters, “We understand we have zero room for error, we've got to take care of our business week in and week out and then maybe we'll still have that opportunity." Duke’s D allowed Notre Dame and Virginia to average 34.5 PPG on 482.0 YPG prior to the team’s game vs. Army (played in torrential rain conditions). Who knows how many points Jackson and Co. will run up coming off the team's loss to Clemson? Meanwhile, not counting playing in a downpour against Army, Duke’s offense averaged 464.0 YPG against ND and UVA. The Over is an 8* play. 

Appalachian State: The Mountaineers joined the Sun Belt in 2014 and opened their third season (2016) in the league having gone 13-3 in league games the previous two years. Appalachian State beat Ohio U 31-29 in last year’s Camellia Bowl and came into this season having won 17 of its previous 19 games. The Mountaineers almost defeated Tennessee in it season opener (lost 20-13 in OT) but fell big time 45-10 against Miami at home in Boone, N.C. The team comes in 3-2 overall and now 1-0 in SBC play after a 17-3 home win over Georgia State. Appalachian State is led by a very solid defense, allowing 226 PPG (38th). QB Taylor Lamb completes 61.7% and the rushing attack is good, averaging 213.0 YPG (36th), led by RB Moore (554 yards on 5.0 YPC). UL-Lafayette: ULL is coming off a 4-8 season in 2015 after going 9-4 each season from 2011 through 2014, ending all four seasons with a bowl victory. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 2-3 (1-1 in SBC play) and looking for some way to get back in the Sun Belt race. A win on Wednesday night would certainly help coach Mark Hudspeth’s team inch closer to a bowl berth in 2016. ULL scores better than Appalachian State averaging 27.6 PPG but also allows 11 points more at 33.6 PPG (105th). The rushing game averages 179.8 YPG but QB Anthony Jennings needs more consistency. The LSU graduate transfer has completed 60.7 percent of his throws but has throw six picks. He was benched in the last game against New Mexico State., replaced by Jalen Nixon but he suffered a season-ending injury. The starting job is now clearly Jennings’ hands. The pick: Appalachian State’s record in SBC play speaks for itself but after throwing 31 TD passes last season, QB Lamb has just six TD passes through five games, as he’s working with a revamped group of receivers. ULL lost 41-39 in four OTs at Tulane on September 24 and then in two OTs 37-31 at New Mexico St. on October 1. This is a “circle the wagons” game for the home team and I’m ‘biting’ on this big home dog. ULL is an 8* play.

Stanford: The Cardinal have won three Pac-12 titles in the past four seasons and if Stanford hopes to have a chance at a fourth one in five seasons, the Cardinal probably can't afford another conference loss. No. 15 Stanford is coming off a 44-6 loss at Washington, its worst defeat in coach David Shaw's six-year tenure. Stanford (3-1, 2-1 Pac-12) will try to pick up the pieces against Washington State on Saturday at Stanford Stadium. The 2015 Heisman runner-up (Christian McCaffrey) managed just 49 yards on 12 carries against Washington, his lowest output since a 2014 game against California. QB Ryan Burns has been so-so, completing 50 of 79 passes (63.3%) for 546 yards, with four TDs and two INTS but was held to 151 passing yards last week and was sacked six times! Stanford’s defense has been solid (20.0 PPG on 359.2 YPG) but the offense, which averaged 37.8 PPG on 436 YPG in 2015, has averaged just 20.2 PPG (114th) on 309.8 YPG (122nd). Washington State: The Cougars are 2-2 (1-0 Pac-12 play) and heavily rely on QB Luke Falk. He ranks fourth nationally in passing at 373.8 YPG, after going 36-of-48 for 371 yards without an interception in Washington State’s 51-33 win over Oregon. Falk’s completing 73.0 percent with 12 TDs and just two INTs plus is getting help from a running game which has doubled it’s output from 2015. After averaging 80 YPG on they ground in 2015, this year’s team is averaging 161.2 YPG on 5.4 YPC.  Defensively, the Cougars have improved from allowing 33.7, 32.5 and 38.6 PPG in Mike Leach’s first three seasons, to allowing 27.7 PPG in 2015 and after four games in 2016, 28.8 PPG. The pick: WSU is 13-3 ATS as a rod dog since the start of the 2013 season (Leach’s second at Pullman) but has also lost EIGHT in a row against Stanford. Yes, Stanford needed the Cougars to miss a 43-yard FG on the final play last year to escape with a 30-28 (-10 1/2) road win but note that the Cardinal had won the previous seven meeting all by at least seven points, with the average margin of victory checking in at 26.6 PPG. The Cardinal are 48-6 SU at Stanford Stadium since 2008 and have not dropped an October home game since 2007! Lay the points and make Stanford a 10* play.

Florida State: The Seminoles opened the season No. 5 in the AP poll and after opening 2-0, crept up to No. 2, behind Alabama. However, FSU lost 63-20 at Louisville on September 17 and then, after a big 55-35 bounce-back win at USF, lost 37-35 at home to North Carolina. The FSU defense was ravaged by Lamar Jackson (five total TDs ) and Louisville, allowing 530 yards and then again by North Carolina (538 yards allowed), as QB Mitch Trubisky threw for 405 yards and three TDs. Defense has become a real issue for the 'Noles, who are allowing 35.4 PPG (106th) on 438.4 YPG (94th). FSU’s last three opponents, Louisville, South Florida, and North Carolina, have combined to score 135 points (that’s 45.0 per!). FSU’s offense remains top-notch, averaging 41.4 PPG (22nd) on 508.8 YPG (17th). Miami: The Hurricanes are 4-0 (ranked 10th in the AP) and 1-0 in ACC play, as they get set to host FSU (0-2 in SEC play) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Mark Richt’s first season in Miami has gone as good as could have been expected and he would like to somewhat downplay this meeting saying, “You coach 33 years, it's not that big of a deal, Game 5." QB Brad Kaaya (935 YP with eight TDs / plus three rushing TDs) leads an offense averaging 47.0 PPG (4th) on 474.2 YPG (36th). The balance is excellent, with Miami rushing for 251.8 YPG (7.0 YPC!) and passing for 232.5 YPG. The Miami “D” has been just as good, holding opponents to 11.0 PPG (2nd) on 253.2 YPG (7th).  The pick: Recent roles are reversed for this FSU-Miami showdown, as Miami is ranked 10th and FSU 23rd (not sure why the Seminoles are still even ranked?). Is it time for Miami to break through? After all, these past two seasons, lesser Miami editions have taken the Seminoles to the final possession before losing close games. However, FSU is coming off a game in which the Seminoles just saw their streak of 22 straight home wins end (had been an FBS-best), so FSU is not about to see another streak end. What streak is that? The Seminoles last suffered back-to-back defeats in 2011 and their streak of 67 games without consecutive losses leads all current FBS schools. FSU is an 8* play. 

Hawaii: Nick Rolovich is in his first season as head coach at Hawaii and he’s touted as an offensive wizard. However, the Hawaii offense hadn’t done much before last Saturday night’s 38-17 home win over Nevada. QB Ikaika Woolsey completed 9-of-18 passes for 205 yards with four TDs in the team’s lone previous win, 41-36 over UT-Martin on September 11 but had struggled in Hawaii’s three losses. Dru Brown took over at QB last Saturday in Hawaii’s MWC opener and completed 15 of 18 passes for 222 yards with two TDs. RB Diocemy Saint Juste had a career-high 205 yards rushing, as the Rainbow Warriors piled up season highs of 344 yards rushing and 566 total yards. The Hawaii defense entered the game having allowed 49.2 PPG on 535.5 YPG but held Nevada to 17 points on 397 yards. San Jose State: The Spartans were one of three 5-7 schools to make a bowl trip last year (all three won), beating Georgia State 27-16 in the Cure Bowl. However, they are just 1-4 to open the current season, beating only FCS school Portland State, 66-35. QB Potter has an 8-3 TD-to-INT ratio and the RB duo of Zigler (311 yards on 6.2 YPC) and Cooper (297 yards on 4.3 YPC) is solid. The San Jose State defense allows 41.2 PPG on 484.0 YPG. QB Potter returned last week after missing the previous game with an injury and while the Spartans’ D couldn't handle the New Mexico offense in a 48-41 loss (allowed 446 rushing yards on 7.0 YPC), Potter played well, going 16 of 29 for 314 yards with three TD passes. The pick: I played on and won with Hawaii at home last Saturday, as the Rainbow Warriors were in a nice spot. However, the shoe is on the other foot here in San Jose. Let’s not forget how bad the Hawaii defense is, just because Nevada played a poor game in ‘paradise’ last Saturday night. Hawaii is back on the mainland and Hawaii was 1-7 ATS in MWC games last year. Meanwhile San Jose St has gone 8-2 ATS a favorite the last two seasons and is favored for the first time in 2016 in this one. San Jose State is a 10* play. 

Hawaii: Nick Rolovich is in his first season as head coach at Hawaii and he’s touted as an offensive wizard. However, the Hawaii offense hadn’t done much before last Saturday night’s 38-17 home win over Nevada. QB Ikaika Woolsey completed 9-of-18 passes for 205 yards with four TDs in the team’s lone previous win, 41-36 over UT-Martin on September 11 but had struggled in Hawaii’s three losses. Dru Brown took over at QB last Saturday in Hawaii’s MWC opener and completed 15 of 18 passes for 222 yards with two TDs. RB Diocemy Saint Juste had a career-high 205 yards rushing, as the Rainbow Warriors piled up season highs of 344 yards rushing and 566 total yards. The Hawaii defense entered the game having allowed 49.2 PPG on 535.5 YPG but held Nevada to 17 points on 397 yards. San Jose State: The Spartans were one of three 5-7 schools to make a bowl trip last year (all three won), beating Georgia State 27-16 in the Cure Bowl. However, they are just 1-4 to open the current season, beating only FCS school Portland State, 66-35. QB Potter has an 8-3 TD-to-INT ratio and the RB duo of Zigler (311 yards on 6.2 YPC) and Cooper (297 yards on 4.3 YPC) is solid. The San Jose State defense allows 41.2 PPG on 484.0 YPG. QB Potter returned last week after missing the previous game with an injury and while the Spartans’ D couldn't handle the New Mexico offense in a 48-41 loss (allowed 446 rushing yards on 7.0 YPC), Potter played well, going 16 of 29 for 314 yards with three TD passes. The pick: I played on and won with Hawaii at home last Saturday, as the Rainbow Warriors were in a nice spot. However, the shoe is on the other foot here in San Jose. Let’s not forget how bad the Hawaii defense is, just because Nevada played a poor game in ‘paradise’ last Saturday night. Hawaii is back on the mainland and Hawaii was 1-7 ATS in MWC games last year. Meanwhile San Jose St has gone 8-2 ATS a favorite the last two seasons and is favored for the first time in 2016 in this one. San Jose State is a 10* play. 

Clemson: The Tigers opened ranked second in the AP preseason poll, right behind Alabama, the team that beat them in last year’s CFP championship game. QB Deshaun Watson came into the 2016 season as the Heisman favorite but two games in, a 19-13 win at Auburn and a way closer than expected 30-24 home win over Troy, created angst in Clemson and doubters among poll voters. Clemson routed South Carolina State 59-0 (who cared?) but then rode an outstanding defensive performance to win 26-7 at Ga. Tech, followed by a breakout offensive effort in last Saturday’s 42-36 win over then-No.3 Louisville. Watson had his best game of the season with 306 passing yards (5 TDs) and 91 rushing yards, getting the better of Louisville’s TD ‘machine’ Jackson, who threw for 295 yards (one TD) and ran for 162 yards (two TDs). The now third-ranked Tigers’ (5-0, 2-0) victory over Louisville gave them a major leg up in their bid for a second straight ACC Coastal Division title and berth in the conference championship game. Boston College: The Eagles have stepped down in class the last two weeks, beating Wagner 42-10 and Buffalo 35-3. However, Boston College has to be pleased with its offensive production, averaging 445.0 YPG in those two games, after being held to just 124 yards of offense in a 49-0 loss at Va. Tech on September 17. Kentucky transfer Patrick Towles threw four TD passes with no interceptions in the wins over Wagner and Buffalo, after just two TD passes and four INTs in the first three games of the season. The Eagles lead FBS teams in total defense (202 YPG), including ranking seventh in rushing D (78.0 YPG) plus check in allowing 17.2 PPG on the season, which ranks 16th. The pick: BC should gain confidence from the fact that the Eagles have covered in each of the last three seasons when playing Clemson but as good as this team’s defense has played (last year and again in 2016), the question looms that if Va. Tech can run up 49 points on them (totaling 476 yards), what kind of number can Deshaun Watson and Co. ‘hang’ on BC in this one? The Eagles haven't beaten an ACC opponent since the 2014 season finale when they beat Syracuse 28-7 (their ACC losing streak has reached 10 straight!) and they won’t win here, either. Meanwhile, Clemson’s won 19 straight regular season games, which includes an 11-game streak in ACC play. That said, laying this many points on the road makes me nervous but playing over this reasonably low total is an 8* play. That’s the bet.

Western Kentucky: Jeff Brohm’s second season in Bowling Green, Kentucky was a major success, as the Hilltoppers capped the 2015 season by winning the C-USA championship game 45-28 over Southern Miss and then bested USF 45-35 in the Miami Beach Bowl. The graduation of QB Brandon Doughty (71.9% for 5055 yards with 48 TD passes) was a huge loss but RB Wales (1091 RY on 7.0 YPC) and WR Taylor (86 catches with 17 TDs) are both back. USF transfer Mike White seems capable at QB (63.5% for 1367 yards with nine TD passes) plus Wales (341 YR on 6.0 YPC with five TDs) and Taylor (33 catches for 18.2 YPC) are looking good. Western Ky is averaging 33.4 PPG (55). The Hilltoppers are 3-2 but note the losses have come at Alabama and a home to Vanderbilt. The ‘Dores are after all, another SEC team. Louisiana Tech: The Bulldogs have opened 2-3, led by QB Ryan Higgins (63.7 % for 1415 yards with 12 TDs and just two INTs) plus RB Jarred Craft (551 rushing yards on 7.2 YPC). La. Tech is averaging 36.0 PPG (44th) on 519.8 YPG (14th). The Bulldogs could be a C-USA West contender if they can take care of the football, as turnovers have been an issue for them. However, they were turnover-free in their 28-7 win over UTEP the last time out and that’s good news. The pick: Both teams can put points on the board but don’t be too quick to say “over.” The Bulldogs have three losses but they have all come by close margins, with Skip Holtz’s team almost knocking off Arkansas in the season opener (lost 21-20) and the Bulldogs battled hard against Texas Tech before falling 59-45. At first blush the over is the knee-jerk reaction but expect a tight game and for it to stay under, which is a 10* play. 

Temple: The Owls opened the 2015 season 7-0, rising to No. 22 in the AP poll. They then lost a heartbreaker at home to Notre Dame (24-20) and never quite reclaimed their mojo, losing the AAC title game 24-13 at Houston and 32-17 in the Boca Raton Bowl to Toledo, finishing 10-4. Head coach Matt Ruhle was a hot commodity but decided to stay in Philadelphia at Temple. The Owls are 3-1 (1-0 in AAC play) with questionable play from QB Walker, who is completing  just 55.1 percent with six TDs and seven INTs. The Owls do have a nice RB duo in Armstead (313 YR and six TDs) and Thomas, who also has six rushing TDs. The offense is averaging a modest 350.2 YPG (106th) but Temple is averaging 34.2 PPG (ranks 51st). The defensive numbers are similar to last year (20.1 PPG and 337.1 YPG), as Temple is allowing 20.4 PPG (34th) and 319.4 YPG (20th) so far in 2016. Memphis: Like the Owls, the Tigers jumped out of the gate well in 2015, sitting at 8-0 and ranked 13th before losing four of their final five games. The defense just got overwhelmed down the stretch, allowing 35.5 PPG in those four losses. However, unlike the Owls, Memphis was not able to hang on to its well-respected head coach, as Justin Fuente left for Va. Tech, taking over for the retiring Frank Beamer. Mike Norvell left Arizona State assistant coach) to take over at Memphis, his first-ever head coaching job. Memphis also lost QB Paxton Lynch, who has been replaced by JC transfer Riley Ferguson. Memphis opened 2016 at 3-0, while averaging 51.7 PPG, but then couldn’t stay with Ole Miss in Oxford, losing 48-28. Ferguson is completing 66.4% for 1186 yards with 11 TDs and five INTs, leading an offense averaging 45.8 PPG (6th) on 477.2 YPG (33rd). The defense is underrated, as despite the Ole Miss loss, Memphis has allowed just 18.8 PPG (25th). The pick: Temple handled Memphis at home fairly easily last year, wining 31-12. The Owls come in 3-2 SU on the season but Temple has covered four straight games, since getting upset 28-13 at home by Army in its season opener (Owls were two-TD favorites). Temple is 9-2 ATS its last 11 road games, while Memphis is just 3-9 ATS its last 12 at home vs. AAC opponents. Temple is an 8* play.

Georgia Southern: Tyson Summers is in his first season as Georgia Southern’s head coach and he has this program off to a 3-1 start, after losing its most recent game 49-31 at Western Michigan back on September 24 (team was off last week). The Eagles are already 2-0 in league play, defeating South Alabama 24-9 and ULM 23-21. The Eagles led the nation in rushing from 2014-15 under previous coach Willie Fritz and it comes as  no surprise that Summers isn’t deviating too far from that plan. Ga. Southern ranks fourth at 317.8 YPG on the ground (on 5.0 YPC). RB Matt Breida finished second in the Sun Belt with 1,608 yards in 2015 (7.9 YPC!) but he’s just third on the team this year after four games with just 237 yards. It should also be noted that Summers and the new staff are tweaking the offense a bit to work on the passing game. QB Favian Upshaw leads the Eagles with 254 rushing yards but he’s also completed 21 of 39 passes for 409 yards with four TDs and two INTs. Kevin Ellison also sees time under center, completing 12 of 18 with a one TD and no INTs plus with 227 rushing yards, gives the Eagles four players with more than 225 rushing yards this season. Arkansas State: Georgia Southern and Arkansas St, (both 9-4 in 2015) entered 2016 expected to be two of the top teams in the Sun Belt but while the Eagles are 3-1 (2-0 in SBC play), the Red Wolves are 0-4. The lone bit of good news is, ASU has yet to play a conference game. Arkansas State has been one of the Sun Belt’s top programs in recent years but overcoming an 0-4 start will be a big hill to climb. The team will play the next three games at home, then finish with four out of their last five games on the road. The Red Wolves finished second in the conference in scoring in 2014 (36.7 PPG) and led the league with an average of 40.0 PPG in 2015. However, the team is averaging only 16.8 PPG during its 0-4 start to rank 124th out of 128 FBS schools. The defense ranks 120th in yards allowed (494.5 per) and 107th in points allowed (36.0 per). The pick: This is the first meeting between Arkansas State and Georgia Southern on the FBS level and as Sun Belt foes. Strength of schedule has played a role in ASU poor numbers so far, as three of their losses have come against Toledo, Auburn and Utah State. The additional time to prepare and being at home should make for a positive atmosphere. After all, the Red Wolves opened the 2016 season 26-4 SU at Centennial Bank Stadium from 2011 through 2015. This home dog has a lot of bite. Arkansas State is a 10* play. 

Nevada: The Wolf Pack needed overtime to beat Cal Poly 30-27 in their 2016 opener. They then fell 39-10 to Notre Dame in South Bend, before winning 38-14 win at home over Buffalo. However, a trip to West Lafayette resulted in a 24-14 loss to Purdue, leaving Nevada 2-2 as it travels to Hawaii for a late-night Saturday game. Head coach Brian Polian is in his fourth season in Reno and has taken the school to a bowl game in each of his first three years. QB Tyler Stewart has completed 64.0% for a modest 640 yards with five TD passes and just one INT. The team's rushing attack averages 173.3 YPG on 4.3 YPC. Hawaii: Nick Rolovich is 1-3 in his first season as head coach at Hawaii and he’s touted as an offensive wizard. The Hawaii offense has yet to did much but defensively, it’s been a ‘nightmare.’ The unit ranks 126th (of 128 schools) in both scoring D (49.2 PPG) and total yards (535.5 YPG). Quarterback Ikaika Woolsey  played the best game he’s had this season when he completed 9-of-18 passes for 205 yards with four touchdowns in the team’s lone win and Hawaii does own a decent running game (168.0 YPG on 4.5 YPC). The pick: Nevada and head coach Polian own more experience but this marks Nevada’s third long trip in its last four games (at Notre Dame, at Buffalo and now at Nevada). The Nevada offense has scored just 10 points at Notre Dame and 14 at Purdue and will be looking for the team’s first road win of 2016 at Hawaii. Clearly, Hawaii’s defense will give the Wolf Pack more scoring opportunities but Nevada as a road favorite is a stretch. Yes, Hawaii is 1-3 but those losses have come against Cal (in Australia) and then at Michigan and Arizona. In the team's lone home game to-date, the Rainbow Warriors scored 41 points and QB Woolsey had four TD passes. Granted Nevada is a much tougher opponent than UT-Martin but beware the upset by the home ‘dog. Hawaii is a 10* play.

Oregon: The 2-2 Oregon Ducks come into this game after back-to-back losses, 35-32 at Nebraska and then 41-38 at home to Colorado. Oregon heads to Pullman to take on Washington State with its first losing streak since 2007 (had gone 70 games without back-to-back losses!). Oregon’s freshman QB Dakota Prukop is completing 66.7 percent for 1041 yards with eight TDs and one INT. Three Oregon RBs have run for 200-plus yards, as the team averages 275.8 YPG rushing on 6.3 YPC. Star RB Royce Freeman (325 yards on 8.8 YPC with four TDs) suffered a leg injury during the Ducks' 35-22 loss to Nebraska on Sept. 17 and did not play in Oregon's 41-38 setback to Colorado last week. However, he’s fully participated in practice this week and is expected to play. Washington State: The Cougars have an outstanding QB in Luke Falk (74.1% for 1124 yards with an 11-2 ratio), coming off a season in which he completed 69.4% for 4561 yards with a 38-8 ratio. However, the running game ranks 112th at 121.7 YPG on 4.6 YPC. The 1-2 Cougars rank 91st in total defense (421.7 YPG) and 124th in pass D (324.7 YPG). The Cougars routed Idaho 56-6 back on September 17 for their first victory of 2016, after opening the season with losses to FCS member Eastern Washington 45-42 and at Boise State 31-28. Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich told reporters. "Obviously with a bye week, Wash. St. might do something a bit differently. The Cougars have done some five-down stuff against us in the past and a lot of pressure the last time we were there." The pick: The natural tendency is to call for a high-scoring game but the over/number on this one is just way too high. Washington State stunned the Ducks 45-38 in double overtime last season to snap an eight-game slide to Oregon. I expect Oregon to not lose three in arow and avenge last year’s loss but the under is the stronger play and I’ll make it a top-rated 10*.

Missouri: The Tigers are at 2-2 (0-1 in the SEC), as they head to Baton Rogue to take on LSU on Saturday. Missouri can be an explosive team, as evidenced by the Tigers having have scored 140 points in their two victories. Missouri is fourth in the nation in passing yards per game (391.3), as sophomore QB Drew Lock has 14 TDs against just three interceptions (1508 yards, completing 59.3%). Missouri has the SEC's top offense (569.5 YPG), ranking fifth in the nation. The Tigers average 44.5 PPG (14th) and defensively are solid, allowing 18.8 PPG (29th) on 67.8 YPG (51st). LSU:  These Tigers (same nickname as Missouri) will take the field at 2-2 and without Les Miles on the sideline for the first time in nearly 12 years. LSU will be looking to recover from an 18-13 defeat against Auburn in which a final-play TD was overruled following replay, leading to the dismissal of Miles and the hiring of Ed Orgeron on an interim basis. "We're going to flip the script," said Orgeron, who was USC's interim coach in 2013, leading the Trojans to a 6-2 record. "We're going to do things different, we're going to do things that I've done in the past to re-energize this team." Junior RB Leonard Fournette leads the SEC with 128.7 rushing YPG (386 yards on 5.8 YPC) and has topped 100 in all three games he has played this season. However, it’s been quite some time since LSU has featured an effective passing game and 2016  has been no different. Danny Etling has completed 56.3% for only 433 with three TDs and one INT. The pick: Missouri joined the SEC in 2012 and finally gets to meet LSU, the only conference team that Missouri has not faced since joining the league. LSU has not lost an October game since 2009 and the change at the top ought to provide a spark dividends, at least in this first game. Lay the points and make LSU an 8* play.

Oklahoma: Good ol’ “Big Game Bob” hasn’t won many (if any) “big games” since he the led the Sooners to an unbeaten season and a BCS national title back in 2000. The Sooners opened the 2016 season ranked No.3 in the AP’s preseason poll and promptly lost to then-No. 15 Houston, 33-23. After a 59-17 home win over powerhouse UL-Monroe, the Sooners hosted then No.3 Ohio State in Norman and lost, 45-24. The popular refrain these days is that Oklahoma has nothing to play for after losing two of its first three games but Stoops feels winning the Big 12 title would rate as a YUGE accomplishment. QB Mayfield ha completed 64.7 percent for 797 yards with seven TDs and two INTs. RB Perine was expected to have a big year, coming off seasons of 1713 yards (21 TDs) and 1349 yards (16 TDs) but has just 149 yards rushing (a game-high of 60 yards!) on 4.5 YPC. The defense has allowed 401.0 YPG and 31.7 PPG (93rd). TCU: The Horned Frogs come in as the ranked team (at No. 21), against the now-unranked Sooners. QB Kenny Hill has thrown for 1487 yards (a modest six TDs with four INTs) and run for 166 yards (5.0 YPC) and six more TDs. The rushing attack (196.0 YPC on 5.7 YPC) complements a passing game (380.0 YPG ranks 6th) for an offense which is ranked fourth at 576.0 YPG. Hill is the A&M transfer who has led TCU to an average of 42.8 PPG. Gary Patterson’s Horned Frogs find themselves in must-win mode if they want to have any chance at becoming part of the College Football Playoff discussion. TCU’s three-point home loss to Arkansas ended a 14-game home winning streak for TCU. The pick: The Sooners, along with LSU (which fired its head coach Les Miles), ranks among September biggest flops (add in Notre Dame, as well). However, I feel that makes them very dangerous the rest of the season. The Sooners have won seven consecutive road games since losing at TCU back in 2014 and 18 of their past 20 true road games.Oklahoma is a 10* play.

Tennessee: The Vols won six straight games to end the 2015 season, including a dominating 45-6 Outback Bowl win over Northwestern. The Vols began the year at No. 10 in the AP preseason poll but almost saw their season ruined by Appalachian State, escaping with a 20-13 OT win. However, Tennessee has extended its winning streak to 10 in a row by winning three home games a a neutral site game at nearby Bristol Racetrack. No win this year has been sweeter than the Vols’ 38-28 win last Saturday over Florida, after the Vols fell behind the Gators 21-0, only to score the game’s next 38 points. The win ended an 11-game losing streak to the hated-Gators. QB Dobbs has thrown for 805 yards (10 TDs and five INTs) and run for 241 yards with four TDs. WR Malone has just 13 catches but averages 22.1 YPC and has five TD receptions. The “D” has been solid, allowing 21.0 PPG (37th) on 353.0 YPG (39th). Georgia: The Bulldogs moved to 3-0 to open the 2016 season with a 28-27 win at Missouri on September 17. However, Georgia was never in its game with Ole Miss in Oxford last Saturday, trailing 31-0 at the halftime break, before falling behind 45-0 in a 45-14 loss. QB Jacob Eason engineered the comeback against Missouri but played more like the freshman he is at Ole Miss. He is completing a modest 52.5 percent on the season with five TDs and three INTs. RB Nick Chubb returned from an injury-marred 2015 season to run for 222 yards in Georgia’s opener against North Carolina but he’s run for only 200 yards these last three games (3.9 YPC) and is struggling with a bad ankle. The pick: The Vols’ comeback win over Florida not only snapped an 11-game losing streak to the Gators but confirmed the Volunteers as the favorite in the SEC East. They can now solidify that position with a win over the Bulldogs. Tennessee snapped a five-game losing streak in this series by beating Georgia 38-31 at home in 2015 and now make it two wins in a row against an overrated Bulldogs team. Tennessee is 4-0 for the first time since 2003 and is riding its longest winning streak (10 in a row) since winning 14 in a row from 1998-99. Chalk up win No. 11 in a row right here. The Vols are a 10* play. 

Texas: The Longhorns scored on their first four possessions at Cal back on September 17 but in the end, lost 50-43 to the Bears. Texas had opened the season with impressive back-to-back wins over Notre Dame and UTEP but the defense surrendered 50 points on 507 yards. "We've got to get better fundamentally," Strong said. "We got to learn the concepts. ... And then we've got to devise a game plan where we can be successful." Freshman QB Shane Buechele has completed 66.3 percent of his passes for 720 yards and seven TDs (just two INTs) as the Longhorns have averaged 44.7 PG. The RB duo of D'Onta Foreman (288 yards, on 6.4 YPC and three TDs in just two games) and Chris Warren III (260 yards on 5.0 YPC three TDs) lead a rushing attack averaging 238.3 YPG (44th in the nation). Oklahoma State: The Cowboys are 2-2 to open 2016. QB Mason Rudolph has thrown for 1,296 yards and six TDs (just two INTs) but the team’s running game is sub-par, to say the least. OSU averages 126.2 YPG (109th) on 3.4 YPC. The defense is allowing 412.8 YPG but has forced a Big 12-best nine turnovers. However, OSU’s offense has turned the ball over eight times. Oklahoma State comes in off a closer-than-the-final-score-indicates 35-24 loss at No. 13 Baylor. The Cowboys faced a fourth-and-2 from the Baylor four-yard line but the Cowboys RB Rennie Childs was stuffed early in the fourth quarter with Oklahoma State trailing just 28-24. Another chance was blown when another running back, Justice Hill, lost a fumble deep in Baylor territory. The pick: Having a week off prior to this game, the Longhorns’ Big 12 opener, couldn’t have come at a better time for Texas. This has been a visitor dominated series, as the road team has won seven in a row, by an average of more than two TDs per game. Chalk up another road win, as the visiting underdog Longhorns win SU. Texas is an 8* play.

Toledo: The Rockets have opened the 2016 season at 3-0 and come into this Friday night game in Provo having not played last Saturday. Toledo is averaging 42.7 PPG (20th), led by QB Logan Woodside, who has completed 62.2 percent of his throws for 939 yards with 11 TDs and just one INT. He’s balanced by a solid running game, which averages 230.0 YPG on 5.6 YPC. RB Hunt, who had the 21st 100-yard game of his career in Toledo’s last game vs. Fresno St. (September 17), leads the team in rushing with 267 yards on 5.2 YPC. The Toledo “D” is allowing just 10.0 PPG (3rd) on 251.7 YPG (7th). BYU: The Cougars have been “through the ringer” in opening 1-3. After a season-opening two-point win over Arizona, the Cougars have lost to Utah (by one point), to UCLA (by three points) and to West Va. (by three points). QB Taysom Hill has completed 60.3 percent but has just four TDs against seven INTs. The running game averages 164.8 YPG on 4.7 YPC. After facing a gauntlet of above-average offenses early in the 2016 season, the BYU defense finds itself ranked No. 58 overall in total yards, allowing 382.3 YPG (261.5 passing / 120.8 rushing). However, BYU has faced a four-game stretch against teams with at worst, with above-average offenses. The pick: BYU has made 11 consecutive bowl appearances (starting in 2005) but if the Cougars fall to 1-4 with a loss here, the team's bowl hopes are all but ‘dead.’ Yes, the BYU defense has stood up to quality offense but guess what, that unit will face another excellent offensive team in Toledo. All five OL starters have been in the Toledo program for multiple years and after three games, that group has not allowed a single sack. Hunt is a highly-gifted RB and Woodside is making his mark as a quality QB. Junior WR Cody Thompson is currently ranked first in the NCAA in YPC, accounting for 32.8 yards on each of his 11 catches, with a touchdown in each game. A 12-0 regular season is not out of the question for the Rockets (pending a MAC title game) and note that Toledo takes a nine-game road winning streak into this game. However, BYU’s season is on the line here, a loss and it’s basically over. I not ready to count the Cougars out just yet. After four nip-and-tuck games, BYU wins one and by a double-digit margin. BYU is an 8* play.

Kansas: Not much has gone right with Kansas football since the team fired Mark Mangino after the 2009 season. The Jayhawks opened the 2016 season off an 0-12 season in 2015, the school’s seventh straight losing year. Kansas hasn’t won more than three games in each of its last six season and entered 2016 on a 15-game losing skid. That ended with a season-opening home win 55-6 over Rhode island but it’s been back to losing the last two games, 37-21 at home to Ohio U. and 43-7 at Memphis.  Kansas had last Saturday off and will need to start faster here (trailed Ohio U 22-0 and Memphis 19-0), if it has any hope of breaking what’s now become a 36-game road losing streak. Texas Tech: The Red Raiders are coached by Kliff Kingsbury and his “Air Raid” offense. QB Patrick Mahomes II leads an offense which ranks second in scoring 61.0 PPG and total offense (678.7 YPG), as well as leading the nation in passing yards (547.7 per). He’s completed 71.2 percent of his throws with 14 TDs and just two INTs. The talent surrounding him is outstanding and deep but the Texas Tech defense is giving up 531.3 YPG (124th) and 43.3 PPG (124th). Tech’s lone loss came 68-55 at Arizona St, marking the third time since the beginning of last year in which Tech has lost a game in which it had scored at least 52 points! The pick: Of course, no one is picking Kansas to win SU but the Jayhawks have some capable offensive weapons in QB Montell Cozart (68.6%  and five TDs) plus WR Steven Sims Jr, who has 11 catches for 253 yards (23.0 YPC) with four TDs. The Red Raiders have won 16 of 17 meetings against the Jayhawks, including nine in a row, but struggled to a 30-20 victory last year. Kansas staying within this YUGE pointspread will be no surprise. Make Kansas a 10* play. 

UConn: The Huskies are 2-2 but are clearly in over their heads here against No.6-ranked Houston (4-0). Making matters worse, Houston gets a chance to avenge its ONLY loss from last year (Cougars were 13-1) when it hosts Connecticut in an American Athletic Conference game Thursday night. Both starting QBs missed the majority of last year's meeting, a 20-17 UConn home victory but both are healthy for this one. However, Bryant Shirreffs of UConn is hardly a match for Houston’s Greg Ward Jr. Sherriffs is completing 66.9 percent for 819 yards but has only two TD passes, as well as two INTs. UConn is averaging a a modest 21.2 PPG (109th) on 354.5 YPG (103rd). The defense is solid though, holding opponents to a respectable 22.5 PPG (46th) on 381.0 YPG (55th).

Houston: Greg Ward Jr. was held out of Houston’s second game against Lamar (poor field conditions plus he was nursing an injured right shoulder) but in three games has 936 yards passing with five TDs and two INTs. The offense averages 44.8 PPG (12th) on 497.5 YPG (23rd), with great balance (274.2 YP and 223.2 YR). Ward has 113 yards rushing and four others have 125-plus-yards on the ground. This Houston team is for real and whether one wants to classify it as a "revenge game" or not, expect the Cougars to be looking for a little payback.

The pick: Houston takes a 10-game home winning streak into this contest and has averaged 41.8 PPG in that streak. Yes, UConn has a solid defense but the Huskies ruined the Houston's perfect season last year and I see no way the Cougars won’t at least score what they have averaged so far in 2016 (that’s right at 45 points). Make the Over an 8* play. 

California: Cal’s Jared Goff was the LA Rams’ first pick in the NFL draft but his replacement, senior transfer Davis Webb (Texas Tech), has been superb. He’s completing 63.9 percent after three games, throwing for 1359 yards (that’s over 450 per!) with 13 TDs and three INTs. The Bears opened with a 51-31 win over Hawaii (Aug. 26 in Australia), then lost 45-40 at San Diego State (note: the Aztecs own 13 straight wins). However, Cal took down then-No.11 Texas 50-43 last Saturday, as Webb threw for 396 yards with four TDs and zero INTs. WR Chad Hanson caught 12 passes for 196 yards and two TDs against Texas and leads the nation with a remarkable 40 catches in only three games! The Golden Bears have scored at least 40 points in each of their first three games (for just the third time in school history) but the defense has surrendered 39.7 PPG (117th) on 504.3 YPG (118th), despite holding Texas to just 10 second-half points last Saturday in that comeback win. Arizona State: The Sun Devils have opened 3-0, averaging 48.0 PPG (9th) on 525.7 YPG (18th). RB Kalen Ballage already has 10 TDs (nine rushing) and is paired with fellow RB Demario Richard, who leads the team in rushing with 282 yards. QB Manny Wilkins has passed for 795 yards plus added 199 yards rushing (5.8 YPC). The ASU defense has limited all three opponents to less than 100 yards and comes in allowing just 73.7 YPG on the ground (9th). However, the ASU pass D is allowing 397.3 YPG through the air to rank dead-last in the nation (128th). The pick: How can one lay points when ASU’s pass D is so porous, especially when facing Cal’s Webb (see his stats above)? Cal has won nine of the team's last 11 meetings with Arizona State and an added bonus is the Bears’ PK, Matt Anderson, who has converted 15 straight FG attempts and made 20 of his last 21. Cal is 7-3 ATS as a road dog since the beginning of 2014 and adds another notch to its belt in this one. Cal is an 8* play. 

UL-Lafayette: The Ragin’ Cajuns opened with a 45-10 loss at Boise State but rebounded with wins at home over McNeese St. and South Alabama. ULL now heads back on the road to play Tulane in New Orleans. Lafayette RB Elijah McGuire has 3,593 career rushing yards (36 TDs) and leads the way with 408 yards (on 7.3 YPC!) in 2016 for a team averaging 185.7 YPC on the ground. QB Jennings offers balance on offense, completing 67.5 percent for 612 yards with five TDs and two INTs.   Tulane: The Green Wave is 1-2 but the team can’t be too unhappy with its loses. Tulane lost 7-3 at Wake Forest to open the season and after a a 66-21 home win over Soutern, lost just 21-14 to Navy, a team which went 11-2 in 2015. Like ULL, Tulane favors the run and is even better at it, averaging 274.3 YPG to rank 12th in the nation. However, the Green Wave ranks dead-last in passing yards (55.7 per game) and is the only FBS team without a TD pass, so far. Tulane’s defense has been very good, allowing seven points to Vandy and 21 to Navy, the two FBS schools it has played. The pick:  This game will be a battle for bragging rights in Louisiana, taking place minutes from Bourbon Street. Expect it to be a fast game, with few clock stoppages as both teams will pound it on the ground. However, if Tulane falls behind, it doesn’t have the ability to throw. Tulane plays its third consecutive game at home in Yulman Stadium but ULL has the more balanced attack and rates the edge, especially as the underrdog. ULL is a 10* play.

Central Florida: UCF went winless in 2015 (0-12) but ended the school’s 13-game losing streak with a season-opening 38-0 home win over South Carolina State (FCS school). The Golden Knights then lost 51-14 at Michigan but impressed by taking Maryland to two OTs before losing in Orlando, 30-24. The Knights will be playing their last non-conference game of the season in Miami on Saturday night against FIU, as the team will open AAC play on October 1 at East Carolina. First-year head coach Scott Frost had his team on the brink of a win over a Power Five team against the Terps, even though surprise QB starter McKenzie Milton (a freshman), struggled in the contest. Milton had some decent moments against the Terps but he turned the ball over three times in the first two quarters and his fourth turnover helped the Terps win in the second OT. Florida International: The Golden Panthers enter 0-3 with losses to Indiana, Maryland (41-14!) and at UMass last week. Ron Turner is in his fourth season in Miami and checks in with a 10-29 overall record. FIU bested UCF 15-14 last season, as UCF completed one of just two, winless seasons among FBS schools (Kansas also went 0-12). In that game, Panthers QB Alex McGough completed 29 of 38 passes for 260 yards and a TD, while RB Alex Gardner rushed for 75 yards and a score. However,McGough is still looking for his first TD pass in 2016, after 90 attempts (he has four INTs). The lone bright spot for an FIU offense which is averaging 13.3 PPG (ranks 125th of 128 schools), is Gardner, who has run for 262 yards (5.3 YPC) and three TDs. The pick: Expect revenge-minded UCF to get the win and cover in this one. During a horrific 0-12 season, FIU was able to edge UCF just 15-14, holding on to win only when the Panthers blocked a 47-yard FG attempt in the game’s closing seconds. That loss ended a 10-game home win streak for the Knights, which was the second-longest in school history.  Lay the points and make UCF a 10* play. 

Mississippi State: The Bulldogs came close to upsetting now-No. 18 LSU on the road last Saturday. Miss. St. almost erased a 17-point fourth-quarter deficit before falling short, 23-20. Dan Mullen can’t be happy about the team's 1-2 start and this Saturday leads his Bulldogs on a trip to the Northeast for the first time since defeating Syracuse 24-17 back in 1986. Miss. St. is led by dual-threat sophomore QB Nick Fitzgerald, who has thrown for 298 yards (two TDs and one INT), as well as running for 219 yards, averaging an impressive 6.8 YPC (he ranks fourth nationally among QBs with 73.0 rushing yards per game). His favorite target is senior WR Fred Ross, who has 17 receptions and two TDs. However, the Bulldogs’ top RB (Holloway) has only 111 yards on 3.6 YPC. The Miss. St. D is solid, allowing 19.3 PPG (39th) on 338.0 YPG (41st). UMass: The Minutemen suffered through back-to-back 1-11 seasons in 2011 and 2012 but former head coach Mark Whipple returned to Amherst in 2014. He led UMass to the Division I-AA (now FCS) title in 1998 during his first stint at the school (1998-2003) but has only gone 3-9 in his first two season back at UMass. This year’s team is just 1-2 but despite ranking last in the country in scoring (11.7 PPG), UMass has been competitive in all three of its games this season (2-1 ATS). The key has been a defense allowing a modest 21.0 PPG (50th) on 340.7 YPG (43rd). The pick: Whipple had a string of jobs before returning to UMass, including that of QB coach for the Pittsburgh Steelers (2004-06), where he helped develop Ben Roethlisberger. He may have found a spark for his offense in sophomore QB Andrew Ford, who threw for 278 yards and three TDs in his first game, a 21-13 victory over Florida International last Saturday. Mississippi State is 25-4 in regular-season non-conference games under Mullen, including winning all seven on the road and 11 of its last 12 overall. However, a three-TD home dog is an inviting opportunity. UMass is a 10* play.

Florida State: The Seminoles visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the USF Bulls, fresh off an embarrassing 63-20 loss this past Saturday at Louisville. FSU was totally outplayed by the Cardinals last weekend, getting outgained 530-to-284 in yards. Louisville QB Jackson passed for 216 yards with a TD pass plus ran for 146 yards, adding four TDs on the ground. In all, Louisville ran for 314 yards on 6.8 YPC with seven rushing TDs. Meanwhile, FSU’s freshman QB Deondre Francois looked inept, completing 7 of 18 for 101 yards with a TD and an INT. Dalvin Cook, among a group of preseason Heisman favorites, had just 54 yards rushing and after three games, no longer has any Heisman hopes with 228 rushing yards and two TDs. South Florida: The USF Bulls are off to a 3-0 start for the first time since 2011, after rallying to win 45-20 at Syracuse last week. USF fell behind 17-0 after the first quarter last Saturday but then ran off 28 unanswered points in the second quarter. The Bulls are averaging 49.7 PPG (7th-best in the nation) after three games on 518.7 YPG (19th). Five players have run for 99 yards or more, including QB Quinton Flowers (150), who has also thrown for 716 yards with seven TDs and just one INT. Defensively, the Bulls have allowed just 19.0 PPG (38th) on 386.3 YPG (70th) but the team is well aware that it will face an FSU team which will be angry and focused after being embarrassed by Louisville. The pick: USF head coach Willie Taggart told reporters when referring to this game with FSU, “I think it will be big, just from a respect (standpoint) and getting national attention. We don’t want anyone to give it to us, we want to earn it, and it’s a hell of an opportunity for us to go out and do that this weekend.” The Bulls went just 6-18 in Taggert’s first two seasons at Tampa but last year’s team was 8-5, after losing 45-35 to Western Ky in the Miami Beach Bowl. The Bulls averaged 33.6 PPG last season (up from 13.8 and 17.2 in Taggert’s first two season) and as noted, is averaging almost 50 PPG to open 2016. The going will be much tougher against FSU but I expect the Bulls to hold their own. However, stopping FSU may be too much to expect. FSU head coach Jimbo Fisher is anxious to see how his Seminoles come back after suffering the worst loss in his seven-year stint with the 'Noles.  Note that in the past five years, FSU is undefeated in games following a loss. The Seminoles last suffered back-to-back defeats in 2011 and their streak of 66 games without consecutive losses ranks second nationally only to Oregon (70). I say the Over is an 8* play.

USC: The Trojans have opened 1-2, after beginning the season at No. 20 in the AP’s preseason poll. Redshirt junior QB Max Browne waited three seasons behind Cody Kessler for his chance, but USC has stumbled badly against No. 1 Alabama and No. 7 Stanford. The Trojans were beaten 52-6 by the Tide (gained just 194 yards on 11 FDs) and scored just 10 points in a loss to the Cardinal. Browne has thrown for only 474 yards in three games, with two TDs and two INTs. With a visit to current No. 24 Utah on tap Friday night, USC has decided to make a change at QB, inserting redshirt freshman Sam Darnold under center. However, it’s unfair to blame only Browne. After all, the school which earned a nickname of “Tailback U” for its outstanding stable of RBs through the decades, enters Friday’s game averaging a woeful 119.7 YPG on the ground (3.6 YPC). That ranks 111th among all FBS schools, despite USC owning one of the most experienced offensive lines in the country. Utah: The Utes began the season unranked (coming off a 10-3 season, which included a Las Vegas Bowl win) but wins over Southern Utah, BYU and San Jose State have the Utes cracking the rankings this week for the first time this season, at No. 24 in the AP poll. Utah is unbeaten, despite a struggling offense. Junior QB Troy Williams, a transfer from Washington and Santa Monica College, has completed 54 of 86 passes (62.8%) for 723 yards and four TDs but he also has been picked off four times. Utah has fumbled nine times, losing five. The Utes rank 122nd out of 128 teams with the nine lost turnovers. However, Utah has typically played excellent defense in recent seasons and this year is no different. The Utes are allowing 263.7 YPG (13th) and 12.0 PPG (10th). The pick: QB Darnold has dual-threat ability and the change at QB could be a bonus. However, he faces a defense which is very talented. Utah had 10 sacks in the team’s 34-17 victory against San Jose State last Saturday, as eight different players had at least one. Utah’s defense ranks second nationally with 15 sacks and the Utes are 8-1 SU here at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City since the beginning of 2015. USC had poor efforts vs. Alabama and Stanford and even a QB change won’t be enough to get them turned around against a talented Utah defense. Utah is an 8* play. 

Clemson: Last year’s national runners-up were unimpressive in victories against unranked Auburn (19-13) and Troy (30-24) to open the season, then hardly learned much about themselves in a 59-0 rout of undermanned South Carolina State last Saturday, a game that was mutually agreed on to be shortened to two, 12-minute quarters in the second half. Deshaun Watson opened the year as the preseason favorite for the Heisman Trophy but he’s hardly looked the part, passing for a modest 692 yards with seven TDs and three interceptions, while adding just 84 rushing yards without a score. Let’s not forget, he passed for 4104 yards (and 35 TDs), while rushing for 1105 yards (and 12 TDs) in 2015. Overall, Clemson’s running game, which averaged 223 YPG on 4.9 YPC last season, comes in averaging a modest 166.7 YPG on 4.2 YPC. However, the Clemson defense has shown no drop-off from last year’s outstanding unit, allowing 250.0 YPG (8th-best) and 12.3 PPG (11th-best). Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets opened 2-0 last year (winning by scores of 69-6 and 65-10) but Ga. Tech would lose nine of its last 10 games. Paul Johnson had led Ga. Tech to a bowl game in each of his first seven season in Atlanta, so the Yellow Jackets opened this season “on a mission of redemption.” The team opened 2016 by winning 17-14 over Boston College in Ireland (scoring the game-winning TD with only 35 seconds left in the game), then beat Mercer 35-10 at home but c’mon, Mercer is an FCS school playing in just its fourth season. Last Saturday’s 38-7 victory over Vanderbilt was better, as after that poor effort  vs. BC, the Yellow Jackets’ option attack has been in high gear the past two games. Ga. Tech has rolled up 955 total yards in lopsided wins over Mercer and Vanderbilt, including running for 653 yards on 6.7 YPC. Ga. Tech’s bend-don’t-break defense has allowed just 10.3 PPG, seventh-fewest in the nation. The pick: Clemson began the year ranked No. 2 but enters this game at No. 5 and as all are likely aware, have an October 1 home game with the Louisville Cardinals (currently No. 3 in the AP poll). Meanwhile, the 3-0 Yellow Jackets are just midway down the list of schools in the "Others Receiving Votes" section of this week's AP top-25 but Bobby Dodd Stadium has not been too kind recently to the Tigers, who haven't defeated Georgia Tech in Atlanta since 2003! In fact, the home team has won each of the last seven meetings, with the Yellow Jackets having won five straight against Clemson here in Atlanta. Georgia Tech is 7-2 SU at home against ranked opponents under Johnson, including wins over ranked Clemson teams in 2011 and 2014. I’m not ready to pull the trigger on an upset call here but like Clemson’s game at Auburn (a 19-13 win), the Under is the play. Make it a 10*.

full analysis soon

Texas: The Longhorns opened the 2016 season with a Sunday night (Sept. 4) home game against then-No. 10 Notre Dame. Texas was optimistic about the upcoming season, after going 11-14 in Strong’s first two years at Austin, as Texas returned 15 starters this season. However, since senior QB Tyrone Swoopes hadn’t shown the ability to really take command of the team these last two seasons, Strong gave the QB job to true freshman Shane Buechele. He became the first first true freshman to start for the Longhorns since Bobby Layne way back in 1944 and helped lead Texas to a 50-47 double-OT win over the Irish. Buechele threw for 280 yards and two TDs in his debut, although Swooppes ran for 53 yards and three TDs, including the game-winner. However, it was all Buechele in Texas’s 41-7 win over UTEP last Saturday, as he  completed 22 of 27 for 244 yards with four TDs and not a single INT. The game against UTEP was a “no contest” but questions remain about the Texas secondary after Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer threw five TD passes in the opener. California: Jared Goff was the LA Rams’ first pick in the NFL draft but his replacement, senior transfer Davis Webb (Texas Tech), has been superb. He’s completing 62.7 percent after two games, throwing for 963 yards with nine TDs and three INTs. The Bears opened with a 51-31 win over Hawaii (Aug. 26 in Australia) but lost last Saturday 45-40 at San Diego State. Cal graduated some key leaders across the table defensively from 2015 and it showed against the Aztecs, as Donnel Pumphrey ran for 281 yards and three TDs. Cal’s offense totaled 604 yards but needed a TD with under a minute to go in the game to sneak under the pointspread. The pick: Jared Goff (268 yards with three TDs and no INTs) helped lead Cal to a 45-44 win last year in Austin, and here in Berkeley, I expect Webb to give the Texas D fits. However, with Buechele (71.% / 6 TDs / 1 INT) now leading the Texas attack, the Longhorns are much better equipped to trade scores with Cal. Making Buechele’s job easier is the fact that Cal ranks 125th nationally defending the run (allows 291.0 YPG), which will make his play-action plays much more effective. Cal beat Texas last year in Austin (just barely, 45-44) and that Texas team was a mere shell of this one. Note that Texas had won the first five matchups against Cal by a combined score of 155-28! Texas is an 8* play.

Alabama: The defending national champs opened 2016 with a 52-6 thrashing of USC and followed with a 38-10 win over Western Kentucky but unsurprisingly, Nick Saban has been unhappy with his team’s play. Redshirt freshman Blake Barnett started the opener against USC at QB but it was fellow freshman Jalen Hurts (two passing TDs and two rushing TDs) , who made the greater impact. Although Hurts still hasn't been declared the starting QB (even after throwing for 287 yards and two TDs in a starting assignment last Saturday'), he is the likely starter. If anyone was worried that Alabama's defense, which returned a modest five starters from last year’s unit, they can forget about that. After two games, Alabama ranks 8th in scoring (8.0 PPG) and 6th in total D (216.5 YPG), which includes ranking 3rd in rushing D (43.5 YPG). In fact, the Crimson Tide's defense has scored more TDs (two) than it has allowed (one). Ole Miss: Having to play Florida State and Alabama in one’s first three games, is hardly the way any program wants to open the year. However, that’s the fate of this year’s Rebels, plus current No. 16 Georgia and Memphis follow at home, before a bye week. Coming out of the bye, Ole Miss visits current No. 24 Arkansas and then, current No. 20 LSU. Hugh Freeze has led Ole Miss to a bowl game in each of his first four years at the school (he’s won three of them) but after a 10-win season in 2015, it’s seems highly unlikely the Rebels will match that in 2016. Senior QB Chad Kelly has thrown for 532 yards and seven TDs in two games so far, plus fueled last year’s upset of Alabama in Tuscaloosa by passing for 341 yards and three TDs. The pick: Does Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze own a secret formula for defeating the Crimson Tide? He’s now beaten Alabama in back-to-back seasons, 43-37 last year and 23-17 here in Oxford in 2014. Alabama’s Nick Saban hasn't lost to the same team in three consecutive seasons during his 10 seasons at the school and after seeing the Ole Miss offense struggle in the second half against Florida State, I wonder how they’ll handle Alabama’s defense. Ole Miss ran for only 67 yards against FSU (2.7 YPC) and remember, Alabama has allowed just 43.5 YPG on the ground in 2016. Just maybe, Freeze has another upset “up his sleeve,” and let’s not forget, Alabama does have two freshman QBs. However, I’ll stay away from the side but will make the Under a 10* play.

Vanderbilt: The Commodores ended a long bowl drought in 2008 (last previous bowl was in 1982) and the school has been to bowls in 2011, 2012 and 2013. However, while Vandy plays in the SEC, let’s not mistake it for one of the league’s “football schools.” Head coach Derek Mason is in his third year at the school, coming off back-to-back 3-9 seasons. Vandy’s start in 2016 has not exactly been one to inspire confidence. The ‘Dores lost 13-10 at home to South Carolina, getting held to 242 yards. The team rebounded with a 47-24 win over Middle Tennessee State but got outgained 495 to 344 in yards.The bright spot was RB Ralph Webb, who gained 211 yards and scored two TDs. A worry has to be sophomore QB Shurmur, who has completed just 46.0 percent for 186 yards with one TD (good news being, no INTs). Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets are 2-0 to open 2016, winning 17-14 over Boston College in Ireland, then beating Mercer at home, 35-10. Paul Johnson led Ga. Tech to a bowl game in each of his first seven season in Atlanta but after opening last year 2-0 (winning by scores of 69-6 and 65-10), the Yellow Jackets would lose nine of their last 10 games. QB Justin Thomas completed just 41.7 percent last season and missed part of the Mercer game with what was described as a minor injury but is expected to start Saturday. He’s not much of a QB. The pick: The Yellow Jackets ran for 364 yards last week but Mercer is an FCS school playing in just its fourth season. Against a quality defense like Boston College, Tech ran for just 119 yards (on 2.7 YPC) and was only able to win when scoring a TD with only 35 seconds left in the game. Vanderbilt has gone a solid 11-5 ATS as a road dog since 2012 and I’ll make Vandy a 10 * play in this one. 

Florida State: The Seminoles are ranked No.2 and like the nation’s No. 1 team (Alabama) and its No. 3 team (Ohio State), FSU is playing a ranked team on the road this Saturday. FSU knows all about Ole Miss, beating the Rebels 45-34 in Orlando on Labor Day evening, then followed with a 52-8 rout of Charleston Southern which, coupled with then-No. 2 Clemson's narrow 30-24 escape against Troy, allowed the Seminoles to leapfrog their ACC rivals from No. 3 to No. 2 in the latest AP rankings. However, preseason All-American defensive back Derwin James suffered a cartilage tear in his left knee during the Charleston Southern game and could be out as long as 10 weeks, or as little as two, Seminoles coach Jimbo Fisher said. RB Dalvin Cook was among the preseason Heisman favorites but he’s counted for a modest 284 total yards and two TDs in limited action. Redshirt freshman QB Deondre Francois has been the offensive star so far for FSU, completing 69.0 percent for 681 yards with five TDs and just one INT. Louisville: FSU’s Francois has been terrific but no QB in the nation is off to a better start than Louisville’s Lamar Jackson. Jackson threw for six TDs and 286 yards and added 119 rushing with two more TDs in a 70-14 opening season win over Charlotte. He then set an ACC record with 610 total yards of offense last week versus the Orange (a 62-8 Louisville win) and became the first player in FBS history to record over 400 yards passing (411) and 175 yards rushing  (199) in the same game, helping the Cardinals set another school record with 845 total yards. Jackson and RB Brandon Radcliff (156) each topped 100 yards rushing, while receivers Jamari Staples (136) and James Quick (108) each went over 100 yards receiving, giving Louisville its first-ever pair of 100-yard rushers and 100-yard receivers in the same game. The Cardinals are averaging a FBS-best 754 yards of total offense, which is 138 more than Baylor's top-ranked offense from a season ago and 338 more than Louisville averaged in 2015. The pick: The marks the 17th meeting between the two teams but just the third as conference opponents. However, the Cardinals have won only two of the previous 16 meetings, going a modest are 1-5 at home against the Seminoles. Florida State has won the previous two meetings when playing as ACC foes but trailed in both games. The Cardinals jumped out to a 21-0 lead in the second quarter in 2014, before Heisman winner Jameis Winston rallied the Seminoles to a 42-31. The Cardinals led 7-6 at the half last year but the 'Noles turned the game into a 41-21 romp. What will be different this year? Yes, Lamar Jackson has compiled 1,015 yards of total offense and accounted for 13 TDs in less than two full games for Louisville, but these have regularly been the type of games FSU wins and Louisville loses. Bobby Petrino will have to wait for another situation for the biggest win of his second go-round at Louisville. FSU is a 10* play.

Arizona State: The 2-0 Sun Devils play on the road for the first time in 2016, heading to San Antonio off a record-tying performance by junior RB Kalen Ballage. Ballage matched an FBS record with eight TDs, scoring seven on the ground and adding a TD reception. Fellow junior Demario Richard has 187 yards in two games, after leading the team with 1098 rushing yards last year (Ballage had 653 RY in 2015). QB Berovici (3860 yards with 30 TDs and 9 INTs) needed to be replaced in 2016 and the job was won by sophomore Manny Wilkins, who played in four games but didn’t have a pass attempt as a red-shirt freshman last year. He’s thrown for 531 yards with two TDs and one INT while completing 75.0 percent after two games (has also rushed for 144 yards, averaging 6.0 YPC). ASU head coach Todd Graham knows improvement must come on the defensive side of the ball, where the Sun Devils have yielded a Pac-12-most 518.5 YPG to Northern Arizona and Texas Tech (that ranks 119th in the nation!). UTSA: The Roadrunners opened the season with a 26-13 home win over Alabama State but then lost at Colorado State last week, 23-14. Due to QB sacks, UTSA was held to minus-1 rushing yard by the Rams (RBs had just 56 yards on 24 attempts). RB Jarveon Williams, who rushed for 1042 yards last year and was a preseason C-USA pick, has been held to 39 in two games while battling an ankle injury. QB Dalton Sturm has thrown for 450 yards and four scores (two INTs), with 11 players having at least one catch. UTSA’s defense hasn’t faced an offense as powerful as ASU’s yet and this will be a huge test. The pick: Arizona State has scored 112 points in two home victories to open the campaign, after its 68-55 win against Texas Tech last week. The Sun Devils have scored at least 50 points 15 times since Graham took over in 2012 (had reached that mark just 10 times in the previous 10 years) and will be a tough matchup for UTSA. The Roadrunners’ D got worn down by CSU, which ran for 220 yards. Is there any way UTSA can slow down ASU’s running game? The Sun Devils’ defense is vulnerable but UTSA doesn’t have the ‘weapons’ to make Todd Graham’s defensive unit ‘pay.’ This will be Arizona State’s last non-conference tune-up before starting Pac-12 play against California at home on September 24. Graham saw growth between weeks one and two and said, “We have to figure out ways to win and this team has the heart and character to make it happen. I love coaching them.” Lay the points and make ASU an 8* play.

Arkansas State: The Red Wolves have opened 0-2, losing 31-10 at home to Toledo and then 51-14 at Auburn. The Arkansas State defense had its hands full with Auburn, as a seven-point deficit at the end of the first quarter quickly grew and the team was out of it by the half, trailing 38-7. ASU has offensive woes after just two games with only 384 passing yards without a TD pass and a modest 208 rushing yards on 2.8 YPC. Defensively, ASU is allowing 631.0 YPG (ranks 128th), on 323.5 YPG on the ground (127th) and 301.5 YPG through the air (115th). Utah State: The Aggies opened their season with a 45-6 win at home over Weber State (RB Mayes had 208 rushing yards and three TDs) but then caught an embarrassed USC team in LA, coming off a season-opening pasting by Alabama. Utah State was in the wrong place at the wrong time and got beat 45-7! Mayes got hurt and was limited to 24 yards on eight carries and after rushing for 428 yards (on 9.7 YPC) as a team against Weber State, the Aggies were held to 49 rushing yards on 26 attempts. The team’s defense was overmatched, allowing the Trojans 422 yards of total offense on 81 plays. The pick: Matt Wells is in his fourth season at Utah State and he's the first Utah State coach to lead the team to three straight bowl berths and the only Aggies coach to win back-to-back bowl games. The Aggies are 16-3 SU at home under Wells and hadn't lost in Logan going back to October 12, 2013 versus Boise State, before losing at home in last year’s regular season finale against BYU. However, ASU’s Blake Anderson is a quality head coach with plenty of FBS experience and in his first two seasons at Jonesboro, has led the Red Wolves to a bowl game. With Mayes questionable with an injury for Utah State, I’m taking the points. Arkansas State is an 8* play. 

Arkansas State: The Red Wolves have opened 0-2, losing 31-10 at home to Toledo and then 51-14 at Auburn. The Arkansas State defense had its hands full with Auburn, as a seven-point deficit at the end of the first quarter quickly grew and the team was out of it by the half, trailing 38-7. ASU has offensive woes after just two games with only 384 passing yards without a TD pass and a modest 208 rushing yards on 2.8 YPC. Defensively, ASU is allowing 631.0 YPG (ranks 128th), on 323.5 YPG on the ground (127th) and 301.5 YPG through the air (115th). Utah State: The Aggies opened their season with a 45-6 win at home over Weber State (RB Mayes had 208 rushing yards and three TDs) but then caught an embarrassed USC team in LA, coming off a season-opening pasting by Alabama. Utah State was in the wrong place at the wrong time and got beat 45-7! Mayes got hurt and was limited to 24 yards on eight carries and after rushing for 428 yards (on 9.7 YPC) as a team against Weber State, the Aggies were held to 49 rushing yards on 26 attempts. The team’s defense was overmatched, allowing the Trojans 422 yards of total offense on 81 plays. The pick: With Mayes questionable with an injury for Utah State, expect Utah State to attack ASU’s highly vulnerable defense through the air plus the Red Wolves’ offense should have its best game of the season against a so-so Utah State defense. This makes the Over a 10* play. 

Houston: The Cougars made a huge statement with their 38-24 Peach Bowl win over then-No.7 FSU last year and then made their case for possible admission to an expanded Big 12  by shocking the then-No.3 Oklahoma Sooners 33-23 on September 3 at NRG Stadium. QB Ward threw for 321 yards and two TDs (no INTS) plus the Houston defense held Oklahoma’s offense (which averaged 43.5 PPG in 2015) without a point until a meaningless TD with just over two minutes to go in the game. Houston moved to 2-0 on the season, after a 42-0 win over Lamar last Saturday, a game that was delayed 3 1/2 hours by lightning and torrential rain. Ward was held out vs. Lamar because of the conditions (as well as an iffy shoulder) and three players topped 100 yards rushing.  RBs Kevin Justice (111 yards, two TDs) and Mulbah Car (109 yards, TD) plus QB Kyle Postma (106 yards, two TDs). However, Ward is set to go against Cincy. Cincinnati: Tommy Tuberville’s Cincinnati team has opened 2-0, after a 38-20 win at Purdue last Saturday, the first for this school at a Big Ten site in 59 years! The Bearcats opened 2016 with a 28-7 against Tennessee Martin. Sophomore QB Hayden Moore (510 passing yards, five TDs, one INT, 71 rushing yards and two TDs after two games) accounted for five scores in  the road win at Purdue last week. Nate Cole (12 catches, 145 yards, three TDs) and Devin Gray (nine catches, 167 yards) lead a new group of receivers for Cincinnati after the Bearcats graduated six senior receivers. Linebacker Eric Wilson leads the AAC with 24 total tackles and the defense had five interceptions against Purdue, three by senior safety Mike Tyson. Cincinnati ranks second in the the AAC with 13.5 PPG allowed (23rd in the nation). The pick: Houston comes to town ranked No. 6 in the AP poll and as winners of 16 of its past 17 games. Houston is the first top-10 team to visit Nippert Stadium since then-fifth-ranked West Virginia played there on November 17, 2007 (Bearcats lost that one 28-23 but covered as a home dog). Houston owns a 14-10 advantage in the all-time series against Cincinnati but the Bearcats have won four of the last five games. Yes, Ward is 20-2 as the Cougars' starting QB but note that the Cougars prevailed just 33-30 last season in Houston. The past three meetings between the two schools (all AAC games) have been decided by a 17 combined points. It’s hard to argue against Houston too strongly but winning at Cincinnati is a tough chore. The Bearcats are 16-3 SU at home under Tuberville at home and 27-5 SU at home going back to 2011. As a home dog, I’m making the Bearcats a 10* play. 

Virginia: Virginia head coach Bronco Mendenhall came from BYU where he had plenty of success, winning 99 games in 11 seasons, with each year ending with the Cougars playing in a bowl game. He may have thought that his new team was ready of its first game against FCS foe Richmond but the Cavs surely weren’t, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Mendenhall installed his 3-4 scheme in spring and fall camps but in the opener, the Cavs allowed 524 yards and failed to force a turnover against the Spiders, who won 37-20 (ouch!) QB Kurt Benkert had 264 passing yards and three TDs in his first career start with Virginia but he had an interception, one of the team's four turnovers. Mendenhall brought OC Robert Anae with him to rebuild the Cavaliers but a visit to Autzen Stadium is not exactly a place for experimenting. Oregon: The 24th-ranked Ducks opened 2016 with a 53-28 win over UC Davis last weekend. Dakota Prukop threw for three touchdowns and ran for another in his QB debut for Oregon, which overcame a slow start against an FCS foe. Head coach Mark Helfrich said there were "tens of thousands, if not millions of things we can correct" when he broke down the game Sunday. Star RB Royce Freeman had two rushing TDs against UC Davis to become the fifth player in school history with 40 TDs. He wasn't needed much, with only 11 carries for 87 yards, snapping his streak of nine straight 100-yard rushing games. However, Oregon showed depth, rushing for 271 yards (12.9 YPC) with different six players scoring a TD (either rushing or receiving). The pick: These school’s last met back in 2013 in Charlottesville, with Oregon handing Virginia a 59-10 loss. Virginia is the first ACC team ever to play at Oregon and considering the Ducks opened the 2016 with a 59-9 SU record the previous decade at Autzen, the visit doesn’t figure to be a pleasant one. Want more? Virginia hasn’t won a road game since 2012 and will enter on a 15-game road losing streak! Loss No. 16 comes here and it won’t be close. Oregon is a 10* play.

Virginia Tech: Frank Beamer led the Hokies form 1987 until the 2015 season, which ended with a 55-52 Independence Bowl victory over Tulsa. He left as the winningest active coach at the FBS level and as the sixth winningest coach in history of the FBS. He led Va. Tech to a bowl berth in each of his final 23 seasons. New head coach Justin Fuente has a big pair of shoes to fill but kept DC Bud Foster around so the Tech defense remains the same. Tech opened with a 36-13 win over Liberty but the Hokies were hardly dominate, leading just 17-13 until scoring a TD with 24 seconds left in the second quarter to take an 11-point lead at the half. Losing four fumbles to the FCS foe is not the way to open a new era. "We need to get better at all three phases of the game," Fuentes said. "By and large, we tried to be intelligent with the football. Obviously, we made some mistakes but we were able to overcome them and win the game." Tennessee: The Vols opened the 2016 season ranked 9th in the AP preseason poll but needed OT (and some fortunate bounces) to escape 20-13 (OT) against Appalachian State. Tennessee actually trailed its SBC opponent 13-3 at the half, before pulling out the win and understandably dropped to 17th in Tuesday’s new poll. "Everyone in our program has to have a tremendous sense of urgency to make the progress that's necessary from Game One to Game Two," Tennessee head coach Butch Jones said. "Had an opportunity to watch a lot of football over the course of the weekend, and I know everybody strives for perfection, but it's far and few in between from it happening. That's why it's the first game. There are no preseason games so you find out a lot about your football team. We're still building our identity, but I thought there was a lot of things to really build upon from last Thursday night." The pick: The Hokies and Vols meet Saturday night before an expected crowd of 150,000 at Bristol Motor Speedway, in what is being billed as "The Battle at Bristol." The Volunteers enter on a seven-game winning streak (the school’s longest since 2001) but the offense needs to improve on its 319-yard effort vs. Appalachian State. QB Dobbs is one of two quarterbacks in a Power Five conference that passed for 2,000 yards and rushed for 600 last season (Clemson's Deshaun Watson is the other), so expect a huge bounce-back game from him and his teammates. As for Tech, while the Hokies are best-known for their defense, the Vols defensive unit will be the best one on the field and the opening week results keep this number manageable. The Voils are an 8* play. 

Utah St: Gary Andersen began the turnaround in Logan, earning bowl bids in 2011 and 2012 for the Aggies, the school’s first since 1997. He then left for Wisconsin with his assistant, Matt Wells, taking over at his alma mater. Wells has continued Utah State’s rebirth and has extended the school’s bowl run to five in a row, as he enters his fourth season. The Aggies opened the 2016 season with a 45-6 blowout home win over Weber St, outgaining the Wildcats 528-to-245 in yards. Meyers (16 TDs and 3 INTs in 2015) easily won the QB battle entering the season but was 11 of 17 for just 100 yards (0 TDs / 0 INTs) in the opener. However, led by Mays’ 208 rushing yards, the Aggies ran for 428 yards on 9.7 YPC. USC: The Trojans opened the season ranked 20th in the AP preseason poll but drew defending national champion Alabama in the opening week at “Jerry’s House.” It was a complete blowout, as the Crimson Tide won 52-6, handing USC its worst-ever season opening loss. USC was held to 194 total yards (11 FDs), including averaging only 2.1 YPC on 30 rushing attempts. Starting QB Max Browne completed 14 of 29 for 101 yards without a TD and threw one INT.  Adding insult to injury, not only was USC was battered by Alabama last Saturday night but the Trojans are also dealing with legal and disciplinary issues within the program. USC coach Clay Helton said LBs Osa Masina and Don Hill will not play against Utah State, as both remain under investigation for their roles in sexual assaults plus another linebacker, Jabari Ruffin, will sit out the first half after being ejected from the Alabama game for stomping on the groin of an opposing player. The pick: USC will host Utah State on Saturday, with the kickoff set for 11 a.m. local time. It marks the earliest for a USC home game since at least the early 1950s. Yes, Utah State is the only team outside of the Power 5 conferences to own a win over a ranked team in each of the last five seasons but I don’t expect an upset here. In fact, Utah State returns just three defensive starters from last year and USC is no Weber St! USC is currently unranked but the talent is there, hence the No. 20 preseason ranking. Off one of the school’s biggest-ever ‘whuppings,’ expect the Trojans to deliver a knock-out punch to Utah State in this one. USC is a 10* play.

North Carolina State: Dave Doeren is in his fourth season at NC State and after a 3-9 first year, he’s led the Wolfpack to back-to-back bowl appearances in 2014 and 2015. NC State averaged 30.2 PPG in 2014 and last year upped that to 33.2 per game. He’s handed the offensive ‘keys’ here in 2016 to new offensive coordinator Eli Drinkwitz, who learned the ropes under Gus Malzahn and was the OC at Boise State last year. Arriving along with Drinkwitz from Boise St. was QB Ryan Finley, who is a graduate transfer. Finley finished 17-of-21 for 174 yards with two TDs in NC State’s 48-14 win over William and Mary, while senior RB Matt Dayes added 138 yards on the ground with two scores. Doeren has most of  his own recruits in play now in Year 4 and just maybe, he can get improved play from a defense which has allowed 30.2, 27.0 and 25.8 PPG over the last three seasons. East Carolina: The Pirates have pretty much been bowl regulars with 15 appearances since 1991 and entered last year with eight bowl trips in the previous nine years. However, the team went just 5-7 and Ruffin McNeill was relieved of his duties, even though he had led East Carolina to four bowls in five years prior to last year’s losing record. Taking over in 2016 is Scottie Montgomery, who began his coaching career at his alma mater (Duke), where he served as the wide receivers coach for four seasons (2006–2009). Montgomery was then hired by the Pittsburgh Steelers in February of 2010 as the new wide receivers coach. He remained with the Steeler organization for three seasons. He returned to Duke as associate head coach and offensive coordinator in 2013 and Duke averaged 32.8, 32.4 and 31.5 PPG the last three season. East Carolina  named Montgomery its head coach on December 13, 2015, replacing Ruffin McNeil. Montgomery got his head coaching career off to a rousing start as East Carolina blasted Western Carolina 52-7 in the season opener last week. The pick: ECU has a new QB in Philip Nelson, who made 16 starts in two seasons at Minnesota. Nelson was 28-for-32 passing and tossed TD passes to four different players (had five in all) while setting a career high with 398 yards. RB Anthony Scott carried 11 times for 120 yards, leading a rushing attack which gained 275 yards on 7.2 YPC. The Pirates' 688 total yards of offense was its most since a 70-41 victory over North Carolina in 2014 and as noted already. NC State sure looks as it has plenty of offensive talent as well. These schools last met when ECU went into Raleigh and posted a 42-28 victory back in 2014 and Wolpack RB Dayes told reporters: “We remember what they did to us, so we’re going to try to return the favor this weekend.” The Over is an 8* play.

Boston College: The Eagles return from Ireland (a long way back) off a 17-14 loss to Ga. Tech. Kentucky transfer Patrick Towles won the starting QB job during the off-season and there was hope that the BC offense would improve on the 17.2 PPG it averaged in 2015. However, he did very little in his BC debut, completing 11 of 17 for 137 yards with zero TD passes and one INT. The good news was the return to health of RB Jon Hilliman, who ran for 102 yards (including a 73-yard TD run) in his first game since last September 26. Boston College ran for 176 yards on 37 carries overall. As expected, the BC defense which allowed just 15.3 PPG in 2015, held the Yellow Jackets to 17 points on 238 yards (12 FDs). Massachusetts: The Minutemen suffered through back-to-back 1-11 seasons in 2011 and 2012. However, former head coach Mark Whipple returned to Amherst in 2014. He had coached the Minutemen when the school was an FCS member from 1998-2003. Whipple led the school to a national championship in 1998 but left after 2003 to be an NFL assistant. UMass has gone 3-9 in each of the last two seasons under Whipple, running a pass-oriented attack behind QB Blake Frohnapfel. This year's offense features a dual-threat QB in sophomore Ross Comis. Comis threw for 141 yards and ran for a touchdown in a challenging first career start. The Minutemen were outgained 363-187 against the Gators in a 24-7 los but.remember, UMass was five-TD underdogs and its defense held Florida to a modest 24 points, after allowing six Power-5 schools to average 43.8 PPG the last two seasons. The pick: Boston College missed two FGs, turned it over three times and lost on a last-minute TD to Ga. Tech and will take a nine-game losing streak dating to last season into this contest (six of those losses have come by three points or fewer). Eagles head coach Steve Addazio knows his team needs a win and badly but laying points with such a poor offense is tricky. The "Battle of the Bay State" at Gillette Stadium will likely go to BC but not by the margin suggesteed by the pointspread. UMass is an 8* play.

Louisville: The Cardinals opened the season as the nation’s 19th-ranked team and its 70-14 win over outclassed Charlotte (coupled with a myriad of losses by other ranked teams) has the team at No. 13 in the latest AP poll. Sophomore QB Lamar Jackson delivered a record-setting season debut vs. Charlotte. He accounted for eight touchdowns (including six TD passes) in a mere one-half’s worth of work. Both of those marks tied ACC records and set new school records, prompting head coach Bobby Petrino to say afterward: "It was nice to get everybody involved. He read the coverage and delivered the ball, and let the players make the plays for you." Louisville racked up 663 yards of total offense (38 FDs), as 16 different players ended up catching a pass as the team posted its largest margin of victory in a season opener since 2007. Louisville also held Charlotte to 0-of-13 on third-down conversions, while the 49ers gained just 208 yards on 12 FDs. Syracuse: The Orange are coming off a 33-7 win over FCS team Colgate in the school’s first game under new coach Dino Babers. Babers began his head coaching career at Eastern Illinois (two playoff appearances in two seasons) before taking the Bowling Green job. He was 18-9 in two seasons, leading the Falcons to back-to-back bowl berths (did not coach in last year’s bowl game, after leaving for to take the Syracuse job). Syracuse QB Eric Dungey delivered 355 passing yards and two TDs against Colgate while combining with Zack Mahoney to complete 40-of-46 passes for the entire game. The pick: The Orange had 81 plays for 554 yards in total offense in beating Colgate last week but now step way up in class against a Louisville “D” which allowed just 208 yards on opening weekend. As for Louisville, the Cardinals now take to the road and off the the team’s 70-point outburst, could find the going much tougher against a Syracuse defense which returns its top seven tacklers from 2015. Dino Babers gave a call to arms of sorts during his weekly news conference Monday morning when asked about what he think of a crowd size just north of 30,000 vs. Colgate.  “I thought it was kind of loud, and we've got room for another 18-19,000 people to get in there," Babers said. "I think it can get really loud. We need all the fans to show up in orange, and we need to see a sea of orange out there. Loud when Lamar and Louisville have the ball and quiet when we have the football. If we can get that, it'll be a heck of a home-field advantage, and we're going to need all the help we can." Syracuse has planned an 'Orange Out' for this Friday night game with Louisville, encouraging all fans to wear orange to the game. The under is a 10* play.

Ole Miss: The Rebels are coming of a 10-3 season in 2015 (Ole Miss was the lone team to beat Alabama last season), including an impressive 48-20 victory over Oklahoma State in the Sugar Bowl. Hugh Freeze enters his fifth year at Oxford with a modest 10 starters returning. However, one of those starters is senior QB Chad Kelly (a top-ranked prospect according to NFLDraftScout.com), and Ole Miss opens the season ranked No. 11 in the AP's preseason poll. Florida State: The Seminoles played "second fiddle" to Clemson in the ACC last season, then got thumped 38-24 in the Peach Bowl by Group of Five school, Houston.  However, with all 11 starters returning on offense in 2016, FSU is ranked No. 4 in the AP preseason poll. Heisman-candidate Dalvin Cook, who ran for a school-record 1,691 yards and 19 TDs last year for the Seminoles, is the focus of the offense but FSU is also replacing starting QB Maguire with freshman Deondre Francois.

The pick: Heading into Sunday and Monday's last two games of CFB's opening weekend, five ranked teams have already lost. With Ole Miss and FSU both ranked, a sixth will have to lose Monday night plus if Texas upsets Notre Dame on Sunday, SEVEN top-25 teams could lose on opening weekend (a record). Two top-5 teams have already lost (No. 3 Oklahoma and No, 5 LSU) and if Ole Miss beats FSU (No. 4), that would make it three. Both head coaches are unbeaten in season openers, with Jimbo Fisher going 6-0 at FSU and Hugh Freeze 4-0 at Ole Miss. However, this Orlando site greatly favors FSU (Oxford is 627 miles away by plane and 150 miles longer when it comes to driving distance, while Orlando is just over 260 miles from Tallahassee). It sure doesn't temper my enthusiasm for FSU that the 'Noles have gone 8-0-2 when they have played in Orlando dating back to 1952. FSU is a 10* play.

Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish were viable playoff contenders until the team’s crushing 38-36 loss on November 28th at Stanford, when the Cardinal’s winning FG came on the game’s final play. Notre Dame then ended the year with a 44-28 loss to Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl, finishing 10-3. The Fighting Irish began 2015 with Malik Zaire as their starting QB but he was lost to a fractured ankle in the season’s second game. DeShone Kizer led Notre Dame to a miracle win at Virginia in Week 2, then QB’d the rest of the way. Remember, Notre Dame’s two regular-season losses last year came by a total of just four points! That said,  Brian Kelly has just nine returning starters in 2016. Texas: The Longhorns look like an improved team after closing the 2015 season with a 23-17 win at Baylor, as a three-TD underdog. Strong brought in a another good recruiting class and he’s clearly on the ‘hottest’ of ‘hot seats’ in 2016, after going 11-14 in his first two years at Austin. Texas returns 15 starters this season but senior QB Tyrone Swoopes hasn't shown the ability to really take command of the team these last two seasons. Strong hasn’t revealed his QB choice just yet but most feel that true freshman Shane Buechele will be the starter. I so, he’ll be the first true freshman to start for the Longhorns since Bobby Layne way back in 1944. The pick: ND head coach Brian Kelly apparently couldn't make up his mind about his QB, so DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire will split duties for the 10th-ranked Irish. "They have both have been outstanding, they both make plays," Kelly said. "They both are playmakers. We would just continue to practice and continue to see both of these guys make plays. So we're going to play both of them at Texas." These schools opened the 2015 season against each other as well, with the Irish winning 38-3 at South Bend, while outgaining the Longhorns 527-163. Swoopes got the start last season at Notre Dame and went 7-of-22 for 93 yards (0 TDs / 0 INTs), making it even more likely that freshman Buechele will “be the man.” Texas owns a huge revenge motive and as Texas defensive coordinator Vance Bedford told reporters, “The attitude of the team right now ­– offense, defense, special teams – is something we didn't have last year, in my opinion. Guys are focused, ready to go. They're ready to prove that last year was a fluke.” The Longhorns have won 15 consecutive home openers, so make Texas a 10* play.. 

New Mexico State: Doug Martin begins his fourth season at Las Cruces and I guess last year's 3-9 record is a step in the right direction after consecutive 2-10 seasons (the Aggies were 1-11 the year before he took over). The Aggies have had just four winning seasons since 1967 (48 years) and last made a bowl appearance back in the 1960 Sun Bowl, giving them the longest bowl drought of any program. That said, all three of New Mexico State's wins in 2015 came in the team's last five games. Don't expect a six-win season from the Aggies but more do expect more than the three wins they had last year.

UTEP: Sean Kugler, like NMSU's Martin, enters his fourth season with the Miners. His first team was just 2-10 but he led UTEP to a bowl game in 2014 (7-6 finish, after losing to Utah St.) and last year's team went 5-7. Kugler dumped both his offense and defensive coordinators after last season and this year's team returns 13 starters. UTEP avoids the top- three teams from C-USA's East division plus owns three winnable non-conference games, this being one of them.

The pick: I expect UTEP to be back 'bowling' in 2016 and while last year's team allowed 32.9 PPG on the season, UTEP allowed just 19.4 PPG in its five home games. UTEP gets seven home games this year (making my bowl prediction likely) and look for the Miners to keep a New Mexico State offense in check, as the Aggies will be without R LBarry Rose (hernia), who gained 1651 rushing yards last year (6.9 YPC) and 14 TDs. The Under is a 10* play.

Massachusetts: UMass suffered through back-to-back 1-11 seasons in 2011 and 2012. However, former head coachMark Whipple returned to Amherst in 2014. He had coached the Minutemen when the school was an FCS member from 1998-2003. Whipple led the school to a national championship in 1998 but left after 2003 to be an NFL assistant. UMass has gone 3-9 in each of the last two seasons under Whipple, running a pass-oriented attack behind QB Blake Frohnapfel. This year's offense will feature a dual-threat QB in sophomore Ross Comis. Defense remains an issue though, as last year's team allowed 31.4 PPG, which is the best since UMass allowed 27.9 PPG back in 2011. Florida: The Gators open 2016 ranked 25th in the AP's preseason poll, coming off a a 10-4 season, including capturing the SEC East title. However, after opening 10-1, Florida was outscored 97-24 in a season-ending, three-game losing streak. The 2015 season was Jim McElwain's first in Gainesville and even with the team's late-season fade (don't forget, it came vs. Florida St, Alabama and Michigan), the year had to be considered a big success considering Florida was a combined 11-13 in 2013 and 2014.

The pick: Florida's 2015 season turned after six games when starting QB Grier was suspended for the remainder of the year. The Gators averaged 32.2 PPG during its first six games but just averaged 12.8 PPG in its last six. Florida will likely want to open the 2016 season in a big way, much as the team did in 2015 (scored 61 points against New Mexico State in McElwain's debut). Is there any reason to think Florida won't take UMass "to the woodshed?" Florida is an 8* play.

North Carolina:The Tar Heels are off an 11-3 season and open at No. 22 in the AP poll. Head coach Larry Fedora enters his fifth season in Chapel Hill with seven starters returning on both sides of the ball. However, QB Marquise Williams has graduated (3072 passing yards with 24 TDs and 948 rushing yards with 13 TDs), after leading the Tar Heels to an ACC title-game appearance against Clemson plus North Carolina's first season of double digit wins since Mack Brown's final season (1997). The Tar Heels finished unbeaten in ACC play last season, winning 11 games in a row before falling to eventual national runner-up Clemson in the ACC championship game (also lost to Baylor in the Russell Athletic Bowl). The major question entering 2016 is can  junior Mitch Trubisky QB adequately replace Williams? He completed 40-of-47 passes in 2015 and has thrown 11 TDs while spelling Williams the past two seasons.

Georgia: the Bulldogs will take the field Saturday without Mark Richt as their head coach. Richt was at Georgia for 15 seasons and went 'bowling' every year (145-51 overall) but it wasn't good enough. He's now at Miami-Florida, with Kirby Smart, the former Nick Saban assistant, taking over. Smart's biggest decision is whether to start Jacob Eason right now at QB or is veteran Grayson Lambert the better choice to handle the first-game pressure? Smart returns home to coach his alma mater and the return to health of RBs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel should push Georgia toward the top of the SEC East.

The pick: North Carolina averaged 40.7 PPG last season and even with a less-experienced QB, expect the Tar Heels to have a potent offense. As for that North Carolina defense, yes seven starters return, Carolina's "D" has allowed more than 400 YPG each of the last three seasons. Smart's been a DC but the Bulldogs will be a potent offense this season (as long as everyone remains healthy) and this "showcase game" in the Georgia Dome will be "full of points." 10* play on the over.

Rutgers: Kyle Flood was the OL coach at Rutgers (since 2005) but replaced Greg Schiano as head coach in January of 2012 when Schiano left to become the head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Flood led Rutgers to bowl appearances  in three straight seasons (won just one) but last year's team was only 4-8 (1-7 in the Big Ten) and with all sorts of off-field distractions, Flood was fired after the season. Chris Ash spent the past two seasons as the co-defensive coordinator at Ohio State, helping the Buckeyes win the national championship in 2014. He also coordinated defenses at Arkansas and Wisconsin. Junior Chris Laviano kept his starting QB job (he completed 60.9% last year, throwing for 2,247 yards and 16 TDs), outlasting a trio of competitors. However, Rutgers' No. 1 WR ( Leonte Carroo) was drafted by the NFL. Rutgers opens the season with a shaky defense (34.9 PPG allowed in 2015), one which allowed 46 or more points on five occasions.

Washington: Head coach Chris Petersen had a long run of success at Boise State but is only 15-12 in two seasons with the Huskies. However, there is plenty of optimism in Seattle, as eight starters return from a defense that ranked as the best in the Pac-12 last year (allowed 351.8 YPG) plus the offense is led by QB Jake Browning (passed for 2,955 yards and completed 63.3% while starting 12 games as a true freshman) and RB Myles Gaskin, who rushed for 1,302 yards and 14 TDs as a true freshman.

The pick: The schools have never previously met (note: they will play again next season at Rutgers), with Rutgers coming off a four-win season, which matches its fewest over the past 13 seasons. No. 14 Washington enters a season ranked for the first time since 2003 but this number just seems too high. Note that Washington is only 17-17 as a home favorite the last 10 years! Rutgers is a 10* play.

Oklahoma: The Sooners' lone hiccup in 2015's regular season was a surprising 24-17 loss to Texas (Longhorns were more than two-TD underdog) in the 110th edition of the Red River Showdown. Oklahoma rebounded strongly after that loss with seven straight wins (6-1 ATS), before losing to Clemson in the semifinals of the College Football Playoffs. The Sooners open the 2016 season ranked No. 3 in the preseason AP poll. OU is led by Heisman-hopeful Baker Mayfield. The now junior QB threw for 3700 yards last year (36 TDs and just seven INTs), as Oklahoma averaged 43.5 PPG. Samaje Perine (1,349 rushing yards with a Big-12 high 16 rushing TDs) and Joe Mixon (753 rushing yards / 11 total TDs) are also both back, giving the Sooners a potent and balanced attack. Houston: Tom Herman’s first year at Houston as head coach was an unqualified success, with Houston winning the AAC title game and beating FSU 38-24 in the Peach Bowl to finish 13-1 off back-to-back 8-5 seasons (ranked No. 8 in the final AP poll). A balanced offense averaged 40.4 PPG (236 rush / 248 pass) led by dual-threat QB Ward (21 rush TDs / 17 passing TDs) and he returns. The defense has allowed 21.8, 20.6 and 20.7 PPG each of the last three seasons, so it looks as if that side of the ball has settled in.

The pick: Houston was one of four teams to play four ranked opponents and go unbeaten in 2015 but this Oklahoma team is loaded. Meanwhile, the Cougars return just 11 starters from last year. Yes, this game is at NRG Stadium (home of the NFL's Houston Texans), but the Sooners know their season could get derailed fast with a loss in this one. The last time Oklahoma faced a ranked opponent in the season opener and the then third-ranked Sooners lost 14-13 to No. 20 BYU in 2009. Forewarned is forearmed. The Sooners are a 10* play.

Colorado: The pressure is on the Buffaloes to win and win now, as the 2016 season opens. The Buffs last winning season was 2005 and their last bowl appearance was in 2007 (Colorado lost to finish 6-7). Colorado joined the Pac-12 in 2011 and the Buffs are a pathetic 5-40 in conference play. Mike MacIntyre enters his fourth season at Boulder and enters 2016 at 10-27 overall, including 2-25 in the Pac-12. However, there is talk that Colorado is close to having a breakout season. The Buffaloes lost five games last season by eight points or less. Colorado enters this season with one of the conference’s and nation’s most experienced rosters with 17 returning starters, including senior QB Sefo Liufau who has set or tied 75 program records.

Colorado State: The Rams enter Year 2 of the Mike Bobo era, who was the former Georgia offensive coordinator. Nick Stevens (21 TDPs and 12 INTs)  returns, as do RBs Dalyn Dawkins and Izzy Matthews (a combined 1,678 yards and eight TDs in 2015). However, Stevens has lost his best receivers. Also, the defense has plenty of question marks, as just four starters return and last year's unit ranked 106th in the FBS against the run (213.3 YPG).

The pick: This marks the 90th meeting of the Rocky Mountain Showdown, with the schools having met every year since1995. Bottom line is that the Rams are just 7-18 in this series since 1987 and I expect Colorado to win this year's game by a much bigger margin than last year's three-point OT win. If Colorado is to approach six wins in 2016, winning here and home to Idaho St. next Saturday, are musts. Lay the points and make Colorado an 8* play.

Ball State: Ball State opened 12-0 in 2008 (but finished 12-2) and as recently as 2013 was 10-3. However, the success of those teams seem far-removed from expectations here in 2016. Pete Lembo suffered through 5-7 and 3-9 seasons the last two years and resigned to become assistant head coach at Maryland. Mike Neu takes over and will be a head coach for the first time in his career (spent the last two seasons as the New Orleans Saints QB coach). The Cardinals return 15 starters but must play seven road games, not a good thing coming off going 1-5 SU on the road in 2015. Georgia State: Trent Miles took over in Atlanta with the Panthers going a combined 1-23 in 2013 and 2014 in his first two seasons. The Panthers opened 2-6 in 2015 but then went 4-0 SU and ATS down the stretch, earning the school's first-ever bowl berth. That game didn't go well, as Ga. St. lost to a 5-7 San Jose St team 27-16 in the first Cure Bowl. The Panthers return 16 starters but replacing QB Nick Arbuckle may be impossible. After all, he was the key ingredient in the school's four-game winning streak, finishing the year with 4,368 passing yards and a 28-to-12 TD-to INT ratio.

The pick: Both schools return nine defensive starters but the Georgia State offense is without Arbuckle and Ball Sate features a first-time head coach  who inherits an offense which averaged only 23.1 PPG last year. Georgia St won 31-19 at Ball State last season and while I expect the Panthers to win again this year (this time at home), I believe the winner won't score much more than 21 points this time around. The under is a 10* play.

Oregon State: Gary Andersen spent four years as Utah State's head coach (2009-2012) and in his final season, the Aggies went 11-2 after a bowl win. He used that as springboard to take the Wisconsin job and while the Badgers were 19-7 in his two seasons in Madison, he was supposedly frustrated with the school's high academic standards for athletes. He paid a $3 million buyout and took the open Oregon State job. His first year (2015) was a disaster, as the Beavers had no one to replace QB Sean Mannion and the team went 2-10, including 0-6 on the road while allowing 44.0 PPG.

Minnesota: Tracy Claeys joined the Minnesota staff on Dec. 10, 2010, when Jerry Kill hired him as defensive coordinator. He transformed the Gopher defense into one of the best in the Big Ten and was promoted to associate head coach prior to the 2014 season. Claeys filled in for Kill when Kill missed parts of three games in his first three years at Minnesota and for the entire game when Kill had a seizure before a game at Michigan in 2013. Claeys became interim head at Minnesota when Kill retired for health reasons on October 28, 2015 and now assumes the role as head coach in 2016.

The pick: Expect a turnaround for the Beavers in Andersen's second season, as he now has his systems in place. In particular, he's added QB Darell Garretson, a transfer from Utah St. He was recruited by Andersen when he was at Utah State and followed him to Corvallis after red-shirting last season. OSU owns a a deep receiving corps and look for Garretson to put up Mannion-like numbers. Claeys hopes to rely on the RB combo of Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith (the duo combined for 1,379 rushing yards and nine TDs in 20150 but Brooks is is doubtful for Thursday's game with a broken foot suffered in mid-August.The Gophers last had a QB selected in the NFL draft back in 1972 and don't expect senior Mitch Leidner to break that streak come April. The big points are awfully inviting. Oregon St. is a 10* play.

Tulane: The Green Wave went 7-6 in 2013 (head coach Curtis Johnson's second season), making it first bowl appearance since 2002. However, back-to-back 3-9 seasons followed and Johnson was let go. Tulane hits the reset button with new head coach Willie Fritz at the helm, as well as a new QB in Glen Cuiellette.Cuiellette took just one snap as a red-shirt freshman last season but beat out a trio of challengers for the starting job in camp and will run an offense that Fritz intends to mold to his personnel. The veteran coach came to Tulane after two seasons at Georgia Southern, where he guided an offense that led the nation in rushing last season with an option attack. It helps that Fritz has the luxury of three of the team's top-four leading rushers back from last season, including top RB Dontrell Hilliard (646 yards rushing). Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons know all about hitting the rest button, as the school did just that with the hiring of Dave Clawson (from Bowling Green) in 2014. However, Clawson has only put together consecutive 3-9 seasons on Tobacco Road. Clawson has sung the praises of his young receiving corps out of camp and the team is expected to make big progress on offense with junior John Wolford in his third season as starting QB plus the defense is said to be maturing.

The pick: Is it really a smart thing to be laying a huge amount of points with a Wake Forest team which went just 1-5 SU at home in 2015? That lone home win came over Elon and while Tulane is just 2-10 SU away from home the last two seasons, expect Fritz and his ball-control offense to easily stay within this huge impost. Tulne is a 10* play.

*10* MASSACRE on Alabama.

Both the Clemson Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide won big in their New Years Eve Playoff bowl games, but Alabama's defense looked particularly impressive in a shutout win over the Spartans. It looks like Alabama is in a class of it's own, and Clemson's likely to struggle to put points on the board.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Alabama Pass Rush - The Crimson Tide lead the nation with 50 sacks, and they limited Connor Cook to just 210 yards and two INTs on 19-of-39 passing in a 38-0 win in the Cotton Bowl.

2. Jake Coker - Alabama's perceived weakness was at the quarterback position. After Jake Coker threw for 286 yards and two TDs on 25-of-30 passing in the Cotton Bowl, the Tigers will have to think twice about stacking up the line of scrimmage to stop the run. Coker has thrown seven TD passes and no picks in his last four starts.

3. X-Factor - The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last seven versus teams with a winning record.

Selection: This is a play on the Alabama Crimson Tide (10*)

*10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona State.

The Arizona State Sun Devils failed to live up to lofty expectations this season, but they can go out on a positive note, with a win over West Virginia in the Cactus Bowl. The PAC12 has looked pretty strong this bowl season, with Stanford, Utah, Washington, Washington State and California all winning their games. I don't think a mediocre team from a soft BIG12 Conference is going to match-up well against an Arizona State team that was considered one of the favorites in the PAC12 before the season started.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Sun Devils Pass Rush - Only the Alabama Crimson Tide had more sacks among FBS teams than Arizona State this season. The Sun Devils got to the quarterback 44 times. Skylar Howard is going to be running for his life tonight. He was sacked 29 times during the season.

2. Home Cookin' - The game will be played at Chase Field, the home of MLB's Arizona Diamondbacks. It should be a pretty strong home crowd for the Sun Devils,

3. X-Factor - The Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games.

Selection: This is a play on the Arizona State Sun Devils (10*)

*10* Alamo Bowl TOP TOTAL on OVER TCU/Oregon.

The Oregon Ducks closed out the season winning their final six games, and during that span their offense was firing on all cylinders. When healthy, Oregon's quarterback Vernon Adams has been as good as anybody. The Horned Frogs are also a team with a prolific offense, but they couldn't score enough points to avoid losses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State down the stretch. My money is on the Ducks in the Alamo Bowl.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Ducks have done well in bowl games, covering the spread in five of their last seven. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games. The Horned Frogs on the other hand have failed to cover in five of their last six bowl games, and they've played four straight overs against PAC12 teams.

2. Oregon's Offense - Vernon Adams Jr. broke his finger early in the year, and the offense sputtered when he was not healthy. He returned to action in Week 7 after sitting out four games, and since then Oregon scored an average of 45 points while winning six straight. He threw for 21 TDs and just four INTs during that span.

3. X-Factor - The Over is 7-3 in Horned Frogs last 10 non-conference games.

Selection: This is a play on ORE@TCU to go OVER the total (10*)

*8* Liberty Bowl SIDE WINNER on Kansas State.

The Kansas State Wildcats will be a big underdog in the Liberty Bowl versus Arkansas, and I don't see a lot separating these two teams in terms of talent. The Wildcats were just 6-6, but they lost to Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State by a combined 16 points. I like their chances of keeping up with a Razorbacks team that won just seven games this season.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Kansas State Defense - On paper the Wildcats defense is awful, but I just don't think the numbers tell us the whole story. Take a look at their schedule, and you'll see that they faced Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. Few teams outside the BIG12 play so many teams with such a prolific offense. I don't think Brandon Allen and the Hogs really compare.

2. Coaching - The Wildcats haven't had a losing season since 2008, before Bill Snyder took over for his second stint in Manhattan. With both teams having such a long layoff, it allows the coaching staff plenty of time to draw up a game plan. I wouldn't be surprised to see Snyder out-coach Beilema in this game.

3. X-Factor - The Razorbacks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine neutral site games.

Selection: This is a play on the Kansas State Wildcats (8*)

*10* Sugar Bowl SIDE WINNER on Oklahoma State.

The Ole Miss Rebels will be a big favorite in the Sugar Bowl versus Oklahoma State, but my money is on the underdog here. The Cowboys won 10 games this year, and they were one of the highest scoring teams in the country. I think their brand of football is more suitable for bowl season.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Mason Rudolph - The Cowboys quarterback finished the season in fine form, throwing for 1,009 yards and nine TDs in his last three starts. He didn't throw a single pick in those games.

2. Emmanuel Ogbah - Oklahoma State's DE was 4th nationally with 13 sacks this season. He got to the quarterback four times in the last three games of the season.

3. X-Factor - The Rebels star DE Robert Nkemdiche will miss the Sugar Bowl due to a suspension.

Selection: This is a play on the Oklahoma State Cowboys (10*)

*10* Rose Bowl SIDE WINNER on Iowa.

The Iowa Hawkeyes won 12 straight games before losing a heart-breaker to Michigan State in the BIG10 Championship game, but they still punched a ticket to the Rose Bowl versus Stanford. They are getting a bunch of points here, and I think this is a far bigger game for Iowa than it is for Stanford.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Running Game - Christian McCaffrey finished as the runner-up for the Heisman, and he broke Barry Saunders total yards record. While the Cardinal have a big name in their backfield, the Hawkeyes have depth. Jordan Canzeri led the team with 976 yards and 12 TDs, but LeShun Daniels Jr., Derrick Mitchell Jr. and Akrum Wadley are all explosive.

2. Defense - The Hawkeyes have a stout defense that excels against the run. They limited opponents to just 114.9 rushing yards per game during the season. Stanford's defense ranks 71st nationally allowing opponents to average 375 total yards per game.

3. X-Factor - The Hawkeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Bowl games.

Selection: This is a play on the Iowa Hawkeyes (10*) 

*10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Alabama.

The Alabama Crimson Tide will take on Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl, and they'll be looking to put last year's loss to Ohio State behind them. This Spartans team isn't nearly as explosive on offense, and I think the Tide will completely shut down their running game. I'm expecting this one to be a blowout.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Derrick Henry - He won the Heisman Trophy for a reason. Henry ran for 1,986 yards and 23 TDs in 13 games this season, finding the endzone at least once in all 13 of those games.

2. Previous History - The Crimson Tide have covered the spread in five of their last six versus BIG10 teams, and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven versus teams with a winning record. Their last five victories all came by more than 10 points.

3. X-Factor - Alabama's defense ranks 3rd nationally, holding opponents to fewer than 15 points per game. They led the country in quarterback sacks with 46 on the season.

Selection: This is a play on the Alabama Crimson Tide (10*)

*10* Orange Bowl SIDE WINNER on Clemson.

The Clemson Tigers have yet to lose, and they come into the College Football Playoffs as an underdog to Oklahoma. While the public seems to like the Sooners, I just can't pass up on an opportunity to take the #1 team in the country as an underdog in a neutral site game. My money is on the Tigers to at least keep it close.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - These teams last met in 2014, and Clemson won that game by a score of 40-6, and the Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against BIG12 teams. Clemson owns the nation's longest winning streak at 16 games.

2. DeSean Watson - He finished third in Heisman voting after throwing for 3,512 yards and 30 TDs, and running for 887 and 11 more. He had himself a big game against North Carolina in the ACC Championship game, scoring five TDs.

3. X-Factor - The Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games.

Selection: This is a play on the Clemson Tigers (10*) 

*8* Belk Bowl SIDE WINNER on Mississippi State.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs will take on the North Carolina State Wolfpack in the Belk Bowl on December 30th, and I expect the Bulldogs to run away with this one. They were 8-4 during the season, with all four losses coming against teams ranked #14 or higher. The Wolfpack just don't have the firepower to keep up with an SEC powerhouse like Mississippi State.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Dak Prescott - The Bulldogs quarterback threw for 3,416 yards and 25 TDs, and ran for another 541 yards and 10 scores this season. He gained a total of 881 yards and 10 TDs (passing & rushing) in his last two games against Arkansas and Ole Miss.

2. Wolfpack Defense - North Carolina State lost it's final game of the season by a score of 45-34, and they surrendered a whopping 374 rushing yards in that defeat.

3. X-Factor - The Wolfpack faced three Top 25 teams this year, losing all three of those games by double-digits.

Selection: This is a play on the Mississippi State Bulldogs (8*)

*10* Texas Bowl SIDE WINNER on Texas Tech.

The LSU Tigers are a big favorite over the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Texas Bowl tonight, but I think Texas Tech is going to be a handful. The Red Raiders won their final two games of the season, beating Kansas State at home, and upsetting the Longhorns in Texas. LSU faded down the stretch, losing three of it's last four.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Quarterbacks - This is where Texas Tech has an undisputed advantage. Brandon Harris failed to impress, completing just 53 percent of his passes for 1,904 yards with 12 TDs and five INTs during the season. He was picked off five times in his last four starts. Patrick Mahomes threw for 4,283 yards with 32 TDs, and 14 INTs, and he also ran for 484 yards and 10 TDs.

2. Situational/Motivational - A win here would be huge for Kliff Kingsbury and the Red Raiders, while LSU doesn't have a lot to gain from this game. Their fans expect them to playing in a New Years Eve game, competing for a national championship.

3. X-Factor - The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games.

Selection: This is a play on the Texas Tech Red Raiders (10*) 

*8* SURE SHOT on North Carolina.

The North Carolina Tar Heels will face the banged up Baylor Bears in the Russell Athletic Bowl on Tuesday, and public money has been all over the Tar Heels. Baylor opened as a favorite, but since then it announced that three key players on offense will be out with injuries. I think this game is going to cost bookmakers a ton of money, as the Tar Heels are likely to steamroll the Bears.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Quarterbacks - The Bears lost their starter Seth Russell in Week on October 24th, and backup Jarrett Stidham filled in admirably, throwing for 1,265 yards with 12 TDs and just two INTs, winning two of his three starts. He missed the final two weeks of the season with an ankle injury, and Baylor lost both those games. That leaves Baylor with a third string quarterback that started the season playing wide receiver.

2. Injuries - The quarterback position isn't the only place where the Bears are hurting, they will also be without #1 RB Shock Linwood, and #1 receiver Corey Coleman.

3. X-Factor - The Tar Heels are 6-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record.

Selection: This is a play on the North Carolina Tar Heels (8*)

*8* Military Bowl SIDE WINNER on Navy.

The Navy Midshipmen finished the season with a 10-2 record, and were 7-1 in conference play. They will play at home in Annapolis, hosting the Pittsburgh Panthers in this year's Military Bowl. Pittsburgh got off to a hot start, but faded down the stretch, and I think they'll be in way over their heads here at Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Keenan Reynolds - The Midshipmen quarterback will play his final game for the Naval Academy, and he's had quite a career. He's smashed the record books, with an FBS best 85 career rushing TDs, and he needs just 81 yards to break the record for most rushing yards by a quarterback.

2. Home Cookin' - The Midshipmen won all six of their home games during the regular season, and they won their last home game versus Pittsburgh by a score of 24-21 back in 2013.

3. X-Factor - The Midshipmen are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Bowl games.

Selection: This is a play on the Navy Midshipmen (8*) 

*10* Foster Farms Bowl TOTAL ANNIHILATION on OVER.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers will take on the UCLA Bruins in the Fosters Farms Bowl on Boxing Day, and we might be in for a thrilling game. This will be the third meeting between the two teams since 2012, and the previous two games saw a combined 128 points. My money is on the total to go over.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Cornhuskers have gone over the total in six of their last seven non-conference games, and they surrendered an average of 33 points while losing three of their final games of the season.

2. The Rosen One - The Bruins quarterback was named Pac-12 offensive freshman of the year while throwing for 3,349 yards and 20 TDs this season. He's facing a Nebraska defense that ranked near the bottom of the FBS against the pass, allowing opponents to averaging 288 passing yards per game.

3. X-Factor - Nebraska ranked second among BIG10 teams in total offense, averaging 442 yards per game.

Selection: This is a play on NEB@UCLA to go OVER the total (10*)

*10* Independence Bowl SIDE WINNER on Tulsa.

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane will play Virginia Tech in the Independence Bowl, and Tulsa is a double-digit underdog. This will be Frank Beamer's last game on the sidelines for the Hokies, but my money is on the underdog to at least threaten to spoil the party.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Quarterbacks - Dane Evans threw for 3.958 yards and 22 TDs this season, while Hokies quarterback Michael Brewer posted rather pedestrian numbers in six starts for the Hokies.

2. Previous History - The Hokies are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games, and 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 non-conference games.

3. X-Factor - Tulsa has covered the spread in four of it's last five bowl games.

Selection: This is a play on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (10*) 

*8* Pinstripe Bowl SIDE WINNER on Indiana.

The 6-6 Indiana Hooisers and the Duke Blue Devils will meet in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl in New York on Boxing Day. The Blue Devils had more wins (7), but Duke faded down the stretch while Indiana closed the season with back-to-back road wins to become bowl eligible. My money is on the Hoosiers.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Indiana's Offense - The Hoosiers led the BIG10 in total yards, averaging just shy of 500 yards per game. Quarterback Nate Sudfeld threw for 755 yards and eight TDs on 41-of-64 passing in his last two starts.

2. Strength of Schedule - While Duke has the better record, Indiana had a much tougher schedule. They played three teams ranked in the Top 10, losing close games to Iowa, Ohio State and Michigan State. They also forced overtime in a 48-41 loss to a very strong Michigan team.

3. X-Factor - The Blue Devils will not have leading tackler, and ACC Defensive Player of the Year Jeremy Cash, who is sidelined after having surgery on an injured wrist.

Selection: This is a play on the Indiana Hoosiers (8*) 

*10* Sun Bowl SIDE WINNER on Washington State.

The Washington State Cougars exceeded expectations with an 8-4 record this season, including upset wins at Oregon and UCLA. They will face the Miami Hurricanes in the Hyundai Sun Bowl on Boxing Day, and I like Washington State as a slight favorite.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Luke Faulk - The Cougars quarterback threw for 4,266 yards and 36 TDs this season. He did not play in the final game of the season, a loss to Washington. "It was really tough to watch (the loss to Washington) and not be able to play," Falk said. "It's a game you're looking forward to all year." He led all FBS quarterbacks averaging 387 passing yards per game.

2. Previous History - Miami is 0-5 ATS in it's last five neutral site games, while the Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a winning record.

3. X-Factor - The Cougars will have the PAC12 Coach of the Year on the sidelines, while Miami has an interim coach in Larry Scott.

Selection: This is a play on the Washington State Cougars (10*) 

*8* Hawaii Bowl SIDE WINNER on Cincinnati.

The Cincinnati Bearcats will take on the San Diego State Aztecs in the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve, and the public money is all over the Aztecs who finished the season with 10 wins. Cincinnati was just 7-5 during the regular season, but they played a far tougher schedule in the AAC. My money is on the Bearcats.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Hayden Moore - both teams are dealing with injuries to their starting quarterbacks, but Cincinnati's backup Hayden Moore has proved himself to be more than capable. He threw for 557 yards and four TDs in a 53-46 loss at Memphis in just his second appearance of the season. He played in seven games, throwing for 1,683 yards and nine TDs.

2. Strength of Schedule - The Aztecs didn't face a single ranked opponent during the season, piling up 10 wins against minnows from the Mountain West. When playing outside of their conference, they haven't done well. In fact they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven non conferences games.

3. X-Factor - The Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games, while the Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.

Selection: This is a play on the Cincinnati Bearcats (8*)

*10* Poinsettia Bowl SIDE WINNER on Boise State.

The Boise State Broncos closed out the season with an impressive win over San Jose State, while the Northern Illinois Huskies are coming off a loss to Bowling Green in the MAC Championship game. I like the Broncos to get the better of the Huskies in the Poinsettia Bowl.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Broncos have done well against teams from the MAC, covering the spread in each of their last five. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight non-conference games, and have covered in five of their last seven bowl games.

2. Quarterbacks - The Huskies lost starter Drew Hare to a season ending injury, and backup Ryan Graham was pretty pedestrian throwing for 653 yards with six TDs and three INTs in four starts. The Broncos are in much better shape with Brett Rypien, who threw for 2,976 yards 17 TDs and 7 INTs.

3. X-Factor - The Huskies are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.

Selection: This is a play on the Boise State Broncos (10*)

*10* Boca Raton Bowl Winner on Temple.

The Temple Owls finished the season with a 10-3 record, but they are coming off a tough loss to Houston in the AAC Championship Game. They will face Toledo in the Boca Raton Bowl tonight, and I like Temple to get the better of the Rockets in this one.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Temple Defense - The Rockets didn't face a defense as good as Temple's all year, and I think they will struggle to put points on the board here. Temple boasts the nation's 16th ranked defense, allowing opponents to average fewer than 20 points per game. They were particularly strong against the run, allowing just 128 rushing yards per game, and 3.8 yards per carry.

2. Coaches - The Rockets lost their head coach to Iowa State, and new boss Jason Candle will take over. The Owls on the other hand have signed Matt Rhule to a six year contract extension.

3. X-Factor - The Owls are 5-2 ATS in their last six versus a team with a winning record.

Selection: This is a play on the Temple Owls (10*) 

*10* Las Vegas Bowl Total on UNDER BYU/Utah.

The Utah Utes and the BYU Cougars both finished the season with a 9-3 record, and they will meet in the Las Vegas Bowl this Saturday. The Utes are a slight favorite, but I have my eyes on the total, as I expect this game to be a hard fought defensive battle. My money is on the under.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Utes have failed to reach the total in 19 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning record, while the Cougars have gone under in four of their last five neutral site games. These teams have played five times since 2008, and four of those five games saw fewer than 50 points scored.

2. Utes Backfield - Devontae Booker missed the last two games with a leg injury, but backup Joe Williams ran for 187 yards and a TD in a win over Colorado in the final game of the regular season. Expect Utah to continue to run the ball, burning time off the clock with every possession.

3. X-Factor - The Utes are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 versus a team with a winning record, and the Under is 11-5-1 in Utes last 17 games on field turf.

Selection: This is a play on BYU@UTAH to go UNDER the total (10*)

*10* MASSACRE on UNDER Army/Navy.

The annual Army/Navy game will be the highlight of the week on the college gridiron, and the Midshipmen will once again be the heavy favorite. Navy has won 13 straight versus the Black Knights, but three of the last four meetings have been close games decided by less than seven points. History suggests that this will be a tight low scoring battle, as the total has gone under in each of the last nine meetings.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Ground and Pound - All three military academy schools (Army, Navy, Air Force) use the triple-option offense, and all three rank in the Top 10 nationally in rushing. These teams rarely air it out, and that's a big reason why we've seen so many low scores in recent meetings.

2. Quarterbacks - The Black Knights were forced to start freshman Chris Carter at quarterback last week, with both their first and second string quarterbacks sidelined by injury. He only attempted six passes, throwing for 140 yards with a TD and an INT.

3. X-Factor - The Under is 12-2 in Black Knights last 14 neutral site games.

Selection: This is a play on Navy@Army to go UNDER the total (10*) 

*10* MASSACRE on USC.

The USC Trojans are coming off back-to-back losses to Xavier and Monmouth, but I like their chances of getting back on track when they visit UC Santa Barbara Guachos. This will be the fourth time this season the Guachos play an opponent from the PAC12, and they lost the previous three. Two of those losses came by a double-digit margin.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Trojans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine non-conference games, and they have covered the spread in four of their last five versus opponents from the Big West.

2. USC Offensive Superiority - The Trojans are averaging 84.5 points per game (20 more than the Guachos), and they are shooting 38.5 percent from three-point range (10 percent higher than the Guachos).

3. X-Factor - The Guachos have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five home games.

Selection: This is a play on the USC Trojans (10*)

*10* TOTAL OF YEAR on UNDER Florida/Alabama.

The Florida Gators are coming off a brutal home loss to Florida State, and that came a week after they struggled in a 20-14 overtime win over Florida Atlantic. Now they are up against Alabama in the SEC Championship game, and points aren't going to come easy. I expect Alabama to come in and run the ball, slowing down the pace resulting in a low scoring battle.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Quarterbacks - Neither of these two teams have much of a passing game, and Florida's quarterback Treon Harris has failed to throw for 150 yards in each of his last two starts. Jake Coker hasn't been much better, throwing for fewer than 200 yards in six of his eight games in conference play.

2. Alabama Defense - The Crimson Tide rank 3rd nationally allowing just 14.3 points per game during the regular season. They've held five straight opponents to fewer than 17 points.

3. X-Factor - The Gators have failed to reach the total in each of their last five games, and six of their last eight at a neutral site.

Selection: This is a play on the Gators@Tide to go UNDER the total (10*) 

*8* play on Temple.

The Temple Owls were undefeated prior to hosting the Notre Dame Irish on October 31. The Irish rallied to come from behind in the fourth quarter to win that game by a score of 24-20, but it was still an impressive result for Temple. They play the Houston Cougars in the AAC Championship Game, and I like the visitors getting points.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Common Opponents - The Cougars lost to Connecticut, trailed Memphis by 20 in the fourth quarter of a 35-34 comeback win, and beat Cincinnati by a field goal. Temple beat those three teams by a combined 51 points.

2. Temple Defense - The Owls rank 16th nationally in total defense, allowing opponents to average just 18.8 points per game during the season. They held Connecticut to just three points in a 27-3 home win last week.

3. X-Factor - The Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last six versus a team with a winning record, and they have covered the spread in five of their last seven road games.

Selection: This is a play on the Temple Owls (8*) 

*10* MASSACRE on UNDER Northern Illinois/Bowling Green.

The Bowling Green Falcons will be a double-digit favorite against Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game at Ford Field tonight. The Falcons certainly have the ability to light up the scoreboard, but they are facing a stingy Huskies defense that held them to just 17 points in the most recent head to head meeting. I think tonight's total looks a little inflated.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Falcons have failed to reach the total in four of their last five versus conference opponents, while the Huskies have seen the total go under in five of their last six versus opponents with a winning record.

2. NIU Quarterbacks - The Huskies quarterback situation is in shambles, with starter Drew Hare sidelined by injury, and backup Ryan Graham leaving last week's game with a leg injury. They may have to turn to third stringer Tommy Fiedler tonight.

3. X-Factor - The Huskies have gone under in 11 of their last 16 neutral site games.

Selection: This is a play on the Huskies@Falcons to go UNDER the total (10*)

*10* SURE SHOT on LSU.

The LSU Tigers will finish the season at home against Texas A&M, and this will be the Swan Song for head coach Les Miles. It comes as somewhat of a surprise that after so much success in Baton Rouge, the team has decided to take the program in another direction. You can bet that both players and coaching staff will be highly motivated to go out on a winning note.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Home Cookin' - Heisman hopeful Leonard Fournette is the nation's leading rusher, and he's run for roughly twice as many yards at home (1040), than he has on the road (542). He's also scored 11 of his 17 TDs this season at home.

2. Previous History - The Aggies are 0-5-1 in their last six versus LSU, and they've lost the last four meetings outright. They've also failed to cover in four of their last five games versus opponent's from the SEC.

3. X-Factor - The Aggies are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in November.

Selection: This is a play on the LSU Tigers (10*)

*10* Total MASSACRE on OVER UCLA/USC.

The USC Trojans host the UCLA Bruins on Saturday afternoon, and the winner will advance to the PAC12 Championship Game. Both these teams have the ability to put points on the board quickly, and I think we'll see a high scoring battle here in Pasadena.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Trojans Defense - USC ranks 108th nationally against the pass, allowing opponents to average over 268 passing yards per game. Last week they were torched for over 400 yards and six TDs by Oregon's Vernon Adams Jr.

2. Cody Kessler - The Trojans quarterback has thrown for almost 3000 yards and 25 TDs this season. He's been even  better at home, throwing for 1585 yards with 13 TDs and two INTs.

3. X-Factor - The over is 16-6-1 in Trojans last 23 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Selection: This is a play on the Bruins@Trojans to go OVER the total (10*)

*10* ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State.

The Ohio State Buckeyes had been showing signs of vulnerability all year, and finally they fell last week at home to Michigan State. As poorly as they played, they still lost by just three points on a last second field goal. I expect the defending champs to rebound with a far better effort this week against bitter rivals Michigan, and the price is right to back Ohio State.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Buckeyes have owned this rivalry in recent seasons, winning nine of the last 10 games outright, and covering the spread in seven of those nine victories. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to the Big House.

2. Ezekiel Elliot - The Heisman hopeful can't be blamed for last week's loss, as he only carried the ball 12 times against the Spartans. He should be a bigger part of the Buckeyes offensive game plan today, and last year he shredded the Wolverines defense for 121 yards and a pair of TDs on just 21 carries.

3. X-Factor - The Buckeyes are 39-16-1 ATS in their last 56 road games.

Selection: This is a play on the Ohio State Buckeyes (10*)

*10* MASSACRE on Tulsa.

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane will be on the road at Tulane in their final game of the regular season, and they need to win to qualify for a bowl game. The Green Wave have lost six of seven in conference play, and their one win came against the 0-12 UCF Knights. My money is on the visitors to get that all important "W".

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - Tulsa is 9-1 straight up, and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings with Tulane. Last year they won by a score of 38-31, but the previous eight wins all came by double-digits.

2. Dane Evans - The Tulsa quarterback ranks sixth nationally with 3,591 yards and 19 touchdowns. He's thrown for over 300 yards in seven of his 11 starts this season, and he should have plenty of success against this Tulane defense that ranks 106th in the country, allowing opponents to average over 35 points per game.

3. X-Factor - The Golden Hurricane are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Selection: This is a play on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (10*) 

*10* NCAAF GAME OF YEAR on Nebraska.

The 11-0 Iowa Hawkeyes will travel to Lincoln to take on the 5-6 Cornhuskers, and at first glance this might look like a mismatch. A closer look will reveal that almost all of Nebraska's losses have come in close games, including a pair of games decided on Hail Mary TDs. My money is on Nebraska as a home dog here in a big game for both teams.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Situational/Motivational - While the Hawkeyes need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive, Nebraska needs one more win to become bowl eligible. The pressure is really on the visitors here, and I think they will struggle against an underrated opponent.

2. Previous History - The Cornhuskers have won five of the last six meetings between the two teams, and that includes a 37-34 win at Iowa last year. Nebraska has covered the spread in seven of it's last 10 versus teams with a winning record.

3. X-Factor - The Hawkeyes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Selection: This is a play on the Nebraska Cornhuskers (10*)

*8* ANNIHILATOR on Miami.

The Pittsburgh Panthers will host the Miami Hurricanes on Friday, and both teams have played pretty well lately. Pittsburgh is being asked to cover a big number here, and I think it's going to be difficult to stop this Miami offense. My money is on the underdog getting the points.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Hurricanes have really owned Pittsburgh in the past, winning eight of the last nine in this series. They covered the spread in six of those eight victories. They've also covered in four of their last five trips to Pittsburgh.

2. Brad Kaaya - The Hurricanes quarterback has thrown for 300+ yards in each of his last two starts, and he can pass Bernie Kosar and Vinny Testaverde on the school's all time passing list. He needs just 103 yards to pass Testaverde.

3. X-Factor - Pittsburgh has failed to cover in five of it's last six home games.

Selection: This is a play on the Miami Hurricanes (8*)

*10* TOTAL Coach's Clinic on UNDER Texas Tech/Texas.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders will take on the Texas Longhorns on Thanksgiving Day, and the bookmakers are expecting this game to be a shootout. I think there's a little too much optimism about how many points these teams will score, and my money is on the under with this inflated total.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Texas Running Game - The Horns are averaging 213 rushing yards per game, ranking near the top in the country. They are likely to have success running against a soft Red Raiders defense, and I expect them to burn up plenty of clock with each possession.

2. Previous History - Texas has won six straight versus the Red Raiders dating back to 2008, and five of those six games failed to reach the total. The number in this year's game is far higher than it was in any of those previous contests.

3. X-Factor - The Red Raiders score plenty of points at home, but not so much on the road. They've failed to reach the total in four of their last five outside of Lubbock.

Selection: This is a play on TTU@TEX to go UNDER the total (10*)

*10* MAC ATTACK on Ohio.

The Northern Illinois Huskies are a big favorite in Tuesday night's battle versus MAC rivals Ohio. The Bobcats are on a roll, coming off a pair of big wins over Kent State and Ball State. Now granted that they are stepping up in class, I think they are catching the Huskies at a good time. Their offense has been putting points on the board, and I like their chances of covering this inflated number.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Bobcats have covered the spread in four of their last five meetings with Northern Illinois, and they won two of those games outright. Only one of those five contests was decided by more than 10 points, and that was a 35-23 Ohio win.

2. Huskies Quarterback Situation - With starter Drew Hare sidelined by an injury, backup Ryan Graham will be under center this week. He completed just 48 percent of his passes for 158 yards, two TDs and an INT in the win over Western Michigan last week.

3. X-Factor - The road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Selection: This is a play on the Ohio Bobcats (10*)

*10* Coach's Clinic on the UNDER Tennessee/Missouri.

The Missouri Tigers will host SEC rivals Tennessee on Saturday, and all indications point to another low scoring affair in Missouri. The Tigers have been pretty solid defensively, but have scored an average of just nine points while losing four of their last five games. My money is on the under.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Tigers simply don't play a lot of high scoring games at home, in fact the under is 16-5 in their last 21 home games. They've failed to reach the total in five of their last six versus opponent's from the SEC.

2. Tigers Defense - Missouri owns the nation's 5th ranked defense allowing opponents to average fewer than 15 points per game. They held the Vols to a field goal the last time Tennessee played here at Memorial Stadium.

3. X-Factor - The Under is 4-1 in Volunteers last 5 games on fieldturf.

Selection: This is a play on the Vols@Tigers to go UNDER the total (10*)

*10* Coach's Playbook on Mississippi State.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are coming off a humbling loss at home to Alabama last week, and a road game at Arkansas looks like another tough spot. The Razorbacks have been rolling, coming off consecutive upsets of Ole Miss and LSU. They should be primed for a let down here this week though, and I'll take the points with the visitors.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Dak Prescott - The Bulldogs quarterback threw for 304 yards and four TDs on 27-of-40 passing in a win at Missouri in his last road game. That's pretty impressive when you consider that Missouri's defense ranks 5th nationally allowing opponents to average less than 15 points per game.

2. Previous History - The Bulldogs have won three straight in this series, with one of those wins coming at Arkansas. Prescott threw for 331 yards in last year's meeting.

3. X-Factor - The Razorbacks have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five home games.

Selection: This is a play on the Mississippi State Bulldogs (10*)

*8* ANNIHILATOR on Utah.

The Utah Utes are coming off an overtime loss on the road at Arizona last week, but they can keep their PAC12 Championship hopes alive with a win at home over UCLA tonight. The Bruins are coming off a bad loss at home to Washington State, and I don't like their chances of bouncing back here on the road this week.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Home Cookin' - The Utes have not lost at home this season, and they have covered the spread in four of their last five versus UCLA.

2. Bruins Defense - The stats don't look too bad for UCLA, but they've allowed an average of 42 points in losses to Arizona State, Washington State and Stanford.

3. X-Factor - The Utes are 11-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Selection: This is a play on the Utah Utes (8*) 

*10* MASSACRE on LSU.

The Ole Miss Rebels come out of their bye week looking to get back on track after suffering a heart-breaking loss to Arkansas. They had the Razorbacks at 4th and 25 in overtime, but a miraculous desperation play allowed Alex Collins to get the first down which kept the game winning drive alive. The loss was reminiscent to last year's loss to Auburn, when the potential game winning score was reversed and ruled a fumble. They didn't respond well to that loss, losing 33-0 to Arkansas two weeks later. They host LSU on Saturday, and I like the visitors to record an upset in Oxford.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - Hugh Freeze hasn't had much success with this team coming out of a bye week, failing to cover in this spot in each of the last four seasons. They've also failed to cover the spread in four of their last five versus opponents from the SEC.

2. Leonard Fournette - LSU ran for 264 yards in a 10-7 win over Ole Miss last year, and Heisman hopeful Leonard Fournette ran for 113 those yards.

3. X-Factor - The road team is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 meetings between these teams.

Selection: This is a play on the LSU Tigers (10*) 

*8* SURE SHOT on Temple.

The Temple Owls are coming off a 44-23 loss to South Florida, but they will have a chance to get back on track at home this week against Memphis. The Tigers failed to hang on to a double-digit lead on the road at Houston last week, losing a thriller to the Cougars. As exciting as Memphis is, it's defense isn't good enough to compete with good teams on the road.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Home Cookin' - The Tigers are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games on grass, and the Owls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.

2. Paxton Lynch - The Memphis quarterback has only thrown three interceptions this season, but two of those have come in his last two games. His 278 passing yards last week were a season low. Lynch is facing a tough Owls defense, that has only allowed an average of 21 points per game, ranking 27th nationally.

3. X-Factor - The Owls defense ranks 7th nationally with 15 interceptions on opposing quarterbacks this season.

Selection: This is a play on the Temple Owls (8*) 

*10* MASSACRE on Boise State.

The Boise State Broncos will host the Air Force Falcons on Friday night, and the home team is a double-digit favorite. The Falcons are sitting in first place in the Mountain Division, but The Broncos have only lost three home games versus Mountain West teams since 1998. We should see Boise State take advantage of a shaky Air Force secondary.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Thomas Sperbeck - The Broncos junior wide receiver caught 20 passes for 281 yards last week against New Mexico. He's totaled more than 150 receiving yards in four of his last five games.

2. Situational/Motivational - Boise State lost an ugly game to New Mexico last week, failing to overcome four turnovers and several dropped passes. They have been a great bet coming off a loss though, going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 following a defeat.

3. X-Factor -

Selection: This is a play on the Boise State Broncos (10*)

*8* BLOWOUT SPECIAL on Texas State.

The 1-9 ULM Warhawks will be on the road at 2-7 Texas State tonight, in a battle of the bottom feeders in the Sun Belt. The Warhawks only win this season came against an FCS team, and they will likely be looking at another double-digit loss here tonight. My money is on the home favorite.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Home Cookin' - The Bobcats junior quarterback has thrown 10 TD passes this season, and eight of those have come at home. The Warhawks quarterback has thrown for 13 TDs, but just four of those have come on the road.

2. Robert Lowe - The Bobcats senior running back ran for 248 yards and three TDs in a home win over South Alabama a few weeks ago, and I expect him to have another monster game tonight against a soft defense.

3. X-Factor - The Warhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six conference games.

Selection: This is a play on the Texas State Bobcats (8*)