The set-up: Florida is still in the playoff hunt at 7-1 after beating Kentucky 34-10 this past weekend. Tennessee's game against Vanderbilt was postponed, so the Vols come in fresh after their last game, a 30-17 setback at Auburn all the way back on October 21st. I like the Gators and Kyle Trask to keep the foot on the gas here from start to finish, as Florida is one win or one Georgia loss away from clinching the SEC East. Florida averages 43.4 PPG and it allows 25.9. 

The pick: Tennessee averages just 20.1 PPG, while allowing 30.1. In their last loss to Auburn, the Vols actually outgained the Tigers 464-385, but costly turnovers were the difference. Jarrett Guarantano comes in rested here for the home side though and I think the extra time off will translate into production on the field for the hungry home side. I think Trask will put on a show this afternoon and I like Tennessee to keep it competitive until late. This number is low.

This is a 9* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the OVER Florida/Tennessee.

The set-up: ULM is 0-8, while Arkansas State is 3-5. It's been a difficult year for both teams in many ways and I expect each to come out flat and disinterested here. Arknasas State won this game 48-41 last year, but that was then and this is now. Last year ULM averaged 31.6 PPG, but now the offense is sputtering along, averaging only 16.4 PPG. That's good news to Arkansas State's poor defense. The defense has been a mess for the Warhawks as well, but the Red Wolves' offense hasn't been anything to write home about this year. 

The pick: It's interesting to note that Arkansas State actually has the 13th ranked pass defense in the nation. Yes, these teams struggle defensively, but that's mainly against good teams. These are two bad teams and I expect that sloppy/awkward play to result in a solid, lower-scoring "under" once the final whistle sounds.

This is an 8* play on the UNDER ULM/Arkansas State.

The set-up: Tom Herman is coaching for his job here for Texas. The Longhorns' offense revolves around Sam Ehlinger, who will look to move to a perfect 4-0 against K-State ofr his career. The Texas defense has taken a hit, but fortunately that unit faces the poor offense of the Wildcats, which have averaged just 362.2 yards per game of offense, with backup Will Howard now directing the show after Skylar Thompson went down with injury. 

The pick: To make matters worst for K-State, its defense has been even worse than its offense, allowing 426.6 yards per game and almost 270 of those yards through the air. And that's the difference-maker here for me entirely, as I expect Ehlinger to have himself a day here. Texas still has a chance to finish 7-3 (with a game at home against the lowly Jayhawks to finish it off.) I expect Ehlinger to take over this game on Saturday afternoon - lay the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas.

The set-up: Both teams are in search of a victory. Both teams have lost to Coastal Carolina. App State bounced back from that loss to smash Troy 47-10 last weekend. QB Zac Thomas and the Mountaineers raced out to a four touchdown lead in the first half and then never looked back. Louisiana Lafayette has won five in a row after crushing UL Monroe 70-20 last weekend. Quarterback Levi Lewis had five touchdowns in the rout. App State's defense matches up well against the Cajuns option attack though, as it's allowing only 139 rushing yards per game. 

The pick: Both teams run the ball extremely well and in this very important contest, I expect each to run from start to finish. While both teams have played to some very high-scoring affairs of late, I expect this one to finally fall under (note that six of these team's last eight against each other have indeed fallen "under" the number.) 

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER UL Lafayette/App State.

The set-up: Air Force is 2-2 and Utah State is 1-1. Both teams are hungry for a victory and I believe that the competition level on the field of play will translate into offensive production. Air Force won this game 31-7 last year, but I expect a much higher-scoring contest here. Air Force has had three different games cancelled already in November. Overall the Falcons score 26 points per game and allow 18.3, but those numbers are skewed due to the small sample size. The Aggies dropped their first four games, but they finally broke through with a 41-27 win over New Mexico last time out. Utah State's offense broke out in a big way in that game and I expect the Aggies to build. And they'll have to, because their defense is terrible, conceding 35.2 PPG. 

The pick: Air Force will score at will here on the ground and the Aggies air attack is finally working. This one has "shootout" written all over it.

This is an 8* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Air Force/Utah State.

The set-up: Obviously TCU is the much better team. But it's not that much better. TCU is 3-4 and Kansas is 0-7. But with a game at Oklahoma State to end the season, I think the Horned Frogs take the foot off the gas in the second half. Kansas had its last game postponed, previous to that it lost 62-9 to Oklahoma. TCU had its two game win streak snapped in a 24-6 loss to WVU and I think it comes out flat-footed here vs. the lowly Jayhawks. Situationally speaking, this one sets up great for the home side in my opinion. TCU averages 24 PPG and it allows 26.7. Kansas has averaged 15.1 and allowed 48.4. 

The picks: I'm not going to try and tell you that the Jayhawks are going to win this game outright, as that's not going to be the case. I simply feel this is a really bad spot for TCU after last week's loss and with a bigger game next week vs. the Cowboys. This is the Jayhawks best shot at a win this year and I believe they play with pride and easily keep this one close with the large spread. Grab the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas.

The set-up: Northwestern is 5-0, while MSU is just 1-4. Clearly Northwestern is the better team, but I expect complacency to finally settle in here. Michigan State has had an extra week off to prepare as well for this one, so I expect the Spartans to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. The Wildcats are only allowing 12.6 PPG, but note that they're only scoring 25.8. Peyton Ramsey has been decent with eight TD's and our INT's, but I think the Wildcats take the foot off the gas in the second half. 

The picks: Rocky Lombard has seven TD passes and six INTs. MSU has allowed 33.8 PPG over the last four games, but I think the extra time off to prepare will help them here. They also benefit facing this non-explosive Wildcats attack. With a game at Minnesota up next, I think Northwestern does indeed get caught looking ahead. Look for Lombardi to have a bounce back game here and to keep this one close. Grab the points.

This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on Michigan State.

The set-up: No outright, but closer than expected! Ball State enters on top form, having won two straight. The Cardinals offense is balanced, averaging almost 480 yards of offense per game and 33.3 points. Ball State is allowing 437 yards of offense, but with Toledo QB Eli Peters injured (possibly out), the door is open for Ball State RB Caleb Huntley and company.

The picks: Carter Bradley could get the call here if Peter's leg injury keeps him out. Toledo has looked good on both sides of the ball, but note that the Rockets are still a poor 1-5 ATS their last six following an ATS victory, while the Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four when playing the role of underdog. I think this is a game that the visitors can win outright, but let's grab the points.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Ball State.

The set-up: Here is another great "situational" play. I think CMU is the better team in this matchup, but after falling 52-44 to rival Western Michigan in its last outing, I look for the visiting side to come out flat vs. the lowly Eagles. EMU is winless and it's hungry to get off the schneid (note that it's lost two of its games by seven points or less.) These two QB's are a "wash" as well, as CMU's Daniel Richardson and EMU's Preston Hutchinson have similar numbers. 

The pick: Note as well that CMU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after allowing 50 or more points in a SU loss in its last outing. The conditions are right for an outright upset here, but let's grab the points!

This is an 8* play on EMU.

The set-up:

The picks:

This is an 8* play on UNC

The set-up:

The picks:

This is an 8* play on USF.

The set-up: Iowa is 3-2. It started 0-2 and has won three in a row. Nebraska is 1-3 and it comes in under the radar here. Nebraska comes in off a poor showing at home against Illinois, so there is some overreaction here about how bad the Huskers really are in my opinion. Iowa comes in off a big win over Penn State on the road. Iowa's defense has been the difference maker though, as QB Spencer Petras has four INT's and three TD's this year. 

The picks: Nebraska has allowed 34.3 PPG in the early going, which obviously is poor. The Huskers catch a bit of a break facing this Iowa offense which averages 180 YPG on the ground. The Huskers' offense has put points on the board, averaging 21.3 PPG. Nebraska has two QB's in Adrian Martinez and Luke McCaffrey and I think they'll keep their team competitive late. No outright, but look for Iowa to take the foot off the gas in the second half, allowing the hungry visiting side to comfortably sneak in through the back door.

This is a 9* DESTRUCTION on Nebraska. 

The set-up: Iowa State is 6-1 in Big 12 play for the first time ever and suffice it to say, I expect a bit of a letdown here in this difficult road venue. Brock Purdy had 236 yards and two TD's in his team's blowout win over K-State last time out. Texas though is on a three-game win skein as well. Texas' defense is underrated, it looked good in the 17-13 win over WVU last time out. 

The picks: Texas last game was postponed due to COVID, so the Longhorns come in with an extra week of rest to focus and prepare. I'll give a big nod to Sam Ehlinger over his counterpart Purdy as well, as Ehlinger has been a difference-maker so far for his team. I'm laying the short points in this great situational play, but expecting a big rout.

This is a 10* BEATDOWN on Texas.

The set-up: Cincinnati has been great, but it has a big target on its back after all of the attention its gotten and I believe it finally stumbles this weekend in this difficult road venue. The Bearcats most recently thumped ECU 55-17 last Friday. The Knights won't at all be intimidated though obviously, they most recently hammered Temple 38-13 last weekend. This also sets up as a revenge game for the home side, which fell 27-24 in Cincinnati last season. These teams are evenly matched for the most part. Desmond Ridder and Dillon Gabriel are a "wash" at the QB position. Each team is also sharp defensively. I don't think the Bearcats will go undefeated though this year and note that they're just 2-8 ATS in their last ten after five or more SU victories in a row.

The picks: UCF on the other hand is 23-2 straight-up in its last 25 at home. This one has the feel of whichever of these two hungry teams has its hands on the ball last is going to win and in a scenario like that, I'm going to always grab as many points as I can. So that's what I'm doing here!

This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on UCF.

The set-up: I've grabbed the points, but I do expect Penn State to finally get into the win column here as well with a straight-up victory. With a spread like this, the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe that these teams are evenly matched. I do think that's the case also, but for me this comes down to motivation levels. Iowa is 2-2 and the Nittany Lions are 0-4. Iowa has once again been tough defensively, allowing just 14.8 PPG. QB Spencer Petras is a game manager, as RB Tyler Goodson is the focal point.

The picks: The Nittany Lions went 10-2 last year and note that they've never started a season 0-5 ever in their entire 100-year history of playing. Penn State lost 30-23 to Nebraska last time out, but it looked a lot better in the second half. Will Levis and Sean Clifford are going to keep this Hawkeyes defense on its heels today. Yes, Penn State has fallen off considerably from last year's team, but so too has Iowa. The Hawkeyes have been consistently inconsistent this year and after last week's win, I expect that trend to continue here vs. a Nittany Lions team which will be risking life and limb to try and finally get into the win column. As stated off the top, the outright is possible, but let's grab the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State.

The set-up: Obviously I'm not predicting an outright upset here. I simply believe that Florida will go up big early, and then take the foot off the gas in the second half as it prepares for Kentucky, Tennessee and LSU to finish off the season. 

The picks: Vanderbilt is winless, but it's been competitive in almost every game it's been in, most recently falling 38-35 at Kentucky, scoring 14 points in the fourth quarter. Kyle Trask could even be pulled in the second half, leaving the door open for Ken Seals and company to earn a solid backdoor cover. Just like UMass on Friday night, look for this spread to be too much for the favorite to cover here. 

This is an 8* ATS BLOWOUT on Vanderbilt.

The set-up: Coastal Carolina has a target on its back and I think that App State will give it everything it can handle on Saturday afternoon. The Mountaineers lost their opener, but they enter on top form after five-straight victories. Overall the Mountaineers allow only 16.9 PPG. Coastal Carolina has exceeded expectations for sure this year, as it's ranked and it's also beaten a ranked team. It allows only 16.3 PPG. App State won this game 56-37 last year, and while I'm not predicting an upset of that size this season, I do expect the hungry visiting side to deliver the goods.

The picks: The Mountaineers third ranked rushing offense will prove to be the difference maker here, as I expect it to keep Grayson McCall and the CC offense off the field of play more than usual. Look for App State's run game and defense to be the difference this afternoon, and grab as many points as you can.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Appalachian State.

The set-up: Minnesota is coming off a 33-7 loss to Iowa and it's now only 1-3, while Purdue enters off a 27-20 loss to Northwestern, falling to 2-1. If recent history is any precedence, then the Gophers have to be loving their chances as they've taken the last two in this series, including a 38-31 decision last season. Purdue only managed 262 yards of offense in its last outing. Overall the Boilermakers averages 25 PPG and they allow 23.7. Aidan O'Connell has 916 yards passing, seven touchdowns and only two interceptions. 

The picks: Tanner Morgan had two costly INT's in the Gophers loss last weekend. So far in the early going Minnesota is averaging 29 PPG, but it's conceding 35.8. Morgan has issues with his offensive line, but Purdue's defense isn't adept at rushing the passer, so this is a perfect opponent to get bounce back against. I'll point out as well that the Gophers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a 20 points or larger SU/ATS loss in their previous outing. This one has the feel of whichever teams has its hands on the ball last is going to win and in a scenario like that, I'm going to grab the points.

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Minnesota.

The set-up: The Rockets won this game 37-34 in OT last year, but I think they'll earn a much easier victory on Wednesday night. Toledo has averaged 38 PPG in the early going, but two late TD passes by WMU was too much to overcome in a close setback last weekend. QB Eli Peter was 30 of 46 and while the defense struggled, that unit catches a break this week facing the Eagles. 

The picks: EMU most recently lost 38-31 to Ball State. In the setback the Eagles posted 377 total yards of offense, with Preston Hutchinson accounting for 250 of those through the air. The Eagles though are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven following an ATS victory, while the Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record. I'm laying the points and expecting a decisive win and cover!

This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Toledo.

The set-up: These teams are only playing six games in the MAC this year, but I still think this sets up as a bit of a "look ahead" game for Buffalo. The Bulls are 2-0 and the Bowling Green Falcons are 0-2. But with a game at 2-0 Kent State up next, I believe the Bulls will be caught taking the foot off the gas in the second half. 

The pick: Buffalo likes to run the ball and the Falcons are poor at stopping the run. This one comes down to whether or not Bowling Green can get some points in garbage time and I believe it can, as even Northern Illinois put some points on the board in garbage time vs. the Buffs last time out. For all the reasons listed above, grab as many points as you can and expect a solid back door cover. 

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Bowling Green.

The set-up: UNLV will try to get off the schneid after starting the season 0-3. Most recently the Rebels fell 40-27 to Fresno State this past weekend. QB Max Gilliam has four touchdowns through three games. SJSU on the other hand is 3-0 after an upset 28-17 win over SDSU on Saturday. The Spartans were double-digit dogs, but QB Nick Starkel and company somehow managed the upset. Starkel left the SDSU game with a hand injury though and his status is up in the air here. 

The picks: The Spartans have only allowed 14.7 PPG in the early going, but winning leads to complacency. With a game vs. Fresno State up next as well, this also sets up as a "look ahead" spot for the home side. SJSU backup QB Nick Nash is capable, but the Runnin Rebels are desperate here. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

This is an 8* BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT on UNLV.

The set-up:

The picks:

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on New Mexico.

The set-up: Fresno is 2-1 and Utah State is 0-3. Fresno lost 34-19 to Hawaii to open the year, but the Bulldogs have rebounded to beat two bad teams in UNLV and Colorado State. Utah State's competition has been much greater, having lost to Boise State, SDSU and Nevada. After the 34-9 loss to Nevada, head coach Gary Anderson was fired, with assistant head-coach Frank Maile now stepping in as interim. I think the Aggies will respond on the field of play to this coaching change. 

The picks: Utah State is also 11-4 ATS in its last 15 at home, while Fresno State is is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after back-to-back SU/ATS victories. No outright, but look for the coaching change to help motivate the home side here as they at they very least, take this one rigth down to the wire. I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* MW GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah State.

The set-up: Does ECU have a shot at winning this game outright? Of course not. There's zero chance of that. Cincinnati has a favorable schedule and it appears to be on a mission. However, I think this is a great situational play, as I do think the Pirates will play hard on this nationally televised game, while I also fully expect the Bearcats to take the foot off the gas in the second half as they get ready for a much tougher game at UCF next weekend. Situationally, this one sets up great for the Pirates. 

The picks: Cincinnati has already blown out plenty of opponents this season and there's just zero reason for it do so again. We've reached the point of the season where it has to start looking ahead and I fully expect that to happen here. I base my picks on many things. Situations, trends, trying to go against public money/perception at times. For this one though, it's all about the overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one (it's also important to note that ECU is in fact 5-2 ATS in its last seven on the road as well.) Grab the points.

This is a 10* U OF THE U on ECU.

The set-up: Boise State enters off a terrible 51-17 home blowout loss to BYU, while Colorado State enters off an upset 34-24 win over Wyoming on Thursday. These teams have met nine times and the Broncos have won all nine games. That includes last year's 31-24 victory in Fort Collins. Suffice it to say, I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Colorado State is 1-1. The Rams are somewhat "lucky" though, as they did allow 465 total yards of offense last week, but they managed to hold in the red zone somehow, while also forcing three Wyoming turnovers. 

The picks: The Broncos were forced to play with their third-string QB vs. BYU and it showed. Cade Fennegan finished with 187 yards and two TD's. Expect to see a heavy dose of the run game from the home side as it looks to alleviate the pressure from Fennegan. This one sets up as more of a "chess match" than a "shootout" in my opinion. 

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER CSU/Boise State.

The set-up: EMU opened with a 27-23 loss to Kent State, while Ball State lost 38-31 to Miami Ohio. Preston Hutchinson was 21 of 35 for the Eagles in his opener, throwing for 241 yards, two TD's and two INT's. EMU's weak point last year was its defense and I think the unit will predictably struggle on the road here in this difficult venue. 

The picks: Ball State had an interesting season last year, as it won only five games, but it was just eight points away from an eight win season. The Ball State defense is also poor, but the offense has been great, led by senior QB Drew Pitt, who had 309 passing yards, one TD and one INT in the opener. Ball State's balanced offense will be the difference maker in the end though, as Caleb Huntley had 132 rushing yards and two TD's in last week's setback on the ground. Pitt and the Cardinals have a huge experience edge. They're also playing at home. I like Ball State to put the foot on the gas and keep it there until the final whistle. Lay the points.

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Ball State.

The set-up: Akron is coming off a 58-13 loss to WMU, while Ohio enters off a 30-27 setback to Central Michigan. Akron has lost two straight in this series. Last week Zach Gibson had 125 passing yards, one TD and one INT. The Zips struggled defensively last week, but the unit catches a bit of a break facing this run oriented Ohio offense. 

The picks: Bobcats' QB Kurtis Rourke had 231 passing yards and two TD's in last week's loss, while De'Montre Tuggle had 79 rushing yards and a TD. Ohio was caught flat-footed defensively last time out, but once again, the Bobcats defense catches a big break here facing this poor Akron offense. While the total went over in both team's first game of the year, and while the over has hit in the last three in this series, the overall circumstances finally point to a lower-scoring "under" in my opinion.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER in Akron/Ohio.

The set-up: WKU has lost three of its last four, but off a blowout loss to BYU, I like the Hilltoppers to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. FAU has had three games postponed due to Covid. It's been good in the early going, allowing only 13.3 PPG, but I think it comes out a bit flat to start here, and that's going to be the advantage we grab hold of and ride to a solid cover. Despite losing 41-10 to BYU, WKU had 166 rushing yards in the setback. QB Tyrell Pigrom had been great as well, as he has eight touchdowns and no interceptions. 

The picks: FAU enters off a 24-3 win over UTSA. Nick Tronti had 382 passing yards, three TD's and one INT on the year. Note though that FAU is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven after holding a team to three points or less in a victory in its previous outing. I like the "hungrier" team to at least cover with the generous spread.

This is a 9* UNDERDOG BEST OF THE BEST on WKU.

The set-up: Minnesota is 0-2. Illinois is 0-2. Two teams enter, only one will leave with a victory. And that team will be the Gophers (and in resounding fashion!) Last year the Gophers annihilated the Illini 40-17 in this game and I expect a similar beatdown here. Last year Minnesota only lost two games total. Last time out Minnesota lost in OT to Maryland off a failed PAT. THe Gophers lost a lot of talent, but I like Tanner Morgan to help his team to bounce back here finally and get off the schneid. 

The picks: And here's the perfect team to do it against, as Illinois hasn't won a game since Nov. 23rd of last year. Overall the Illini allow 309 passing yards per game, which is second worst in the nation. QB Coran Taylor is a lone stand out on a poor team and I look for Minnesota to finally get untracked here (note as well that Illinois is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game.) I'm laying the points and expecting a blowout.

This is an 8* BLOWOUT on Minnesota.

The set-up: Cincinnati is 5-0 and Houston is 2-2. Clearly the Bearcats are the better team and I'm not going to try and convince you otherwise. Desmond Ridder leads an exciting and dynamic Bearcats offense and Cincinnati has also been great defensively. The Bearcats have a favorable remaining schedule as well, so a Championship berth is not out of the question if they can run the table. It's a shortened season, so it's definitely possible as well. 

The picks: Houston comes in under the radar though in my opinion (note that it's 4-1 ATS/SU in its last five on the road.) Houston fell apart in a loss to UCF last weekend. They also have a loss to BYU (43-26). They have big wins over Tulane (49-31) and Navy (37-21). I think the Bearcats take the foot off the gas in the second half. Expect a comfortable cover.

This is a 9* COACH'S CORNER on Houston.

The set-up: The Sooners are out of their fourth straight win here. There's no reason to run up the score in the second half though. It's true these teams have been playing to some pretty high-scoring affairs of late, but I believe the overall situation that each school finds itself in coming into this contest will finally lead to a lower-scoring affair. Oklahoma smashed the Red Raiders 62-28 last weekend, but I don't expect a repeat performance here, despite the Jayhawks' issues on the defensive side of the ball. Kansas is looking to get off the schneid, entering at 0-6, and looking to atone for a poor 52-22 setback to No. 17 Iowa State last time out. 

The pick: Another situational factor that leads me to believe that Oklahoma will take the foot off the gas in the second half is scheduling. The Sooners enjoy their bye-week next week, before finishing off the season vs. Oklahoma State, at WVU and at Baylor. The total has also gone "under" in four of these teams last six in the series. I base my picks on many things, but my O/U selections are primarily based on "situations." This one meets several of my personal criteria. This number is high in my opinion.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Kansas/Oklahoma.

The set-up: Syrause is a bad team, but I like it to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Boston College almost beat Clemson last week and because of that "near miss," I think the Eagles come out a bit flat here (of course, Trevor Lawrence wasn't playing in that one.) Overall BC averages 27.6 points per game, while allowing 26.3. Syracuse comes in off a 38-14 home loss to Wake Forest. The Orange actually played decently against Clemson as well, and Syracuse was the first to intercept Lawrence in his Collegiate career. Overall the Orange only average 19 PPG, while conceding 13.3. 

The picks: Yes, BC is the better team here. But the situation favors the hungry underdog home side. With a game at home against Notre Dame in another nationally televised contest, I expect BC to take the foot off the gas as well in the second half if it does in fact have a lead. I'll grab the points and expect a solid back door cover.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Syracuse.

The set-up: San Jose State is 2-0 and I think it'll give the Aztecs a run for their money on Friday night. Most recently the Spartans topped New Mexico 38-21 last Saturday, covering the 13.5 point spread. SDSU is also 2-0 after its 38-7 win over Utah State. SDSU won this matchup 27-17 last year and it has in fact won seven straight in this series. Can anyone say "revenge factor?!" Nick Starkel had three TD passes for SJSU last weekend. He also ran two in. SJSU averages 27.5 PPG and it concedes 13.5. 

The picks: SDSU got two rushing TD's from Greg Bell last time out. The Aztecs actually outgained the hapless Aggies 570-215. Overall SDSU averages 36 points and it allows just 6.3. Both teams have faced lesser competition, but that changes this weekend. SJSU has made significant strides on both sides of the ball and I think it's being severely underestimated here by the oddsmakers. I like Starkel to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on San Jose State.

The set-up: Wyoming is 1-1 after defeating Hawaii 31-7 last Thursday. Colorado State opened is season with a 38-17 loss to Fresno State. The silver-lining for the Rams was that they gained 372 yards on offense (unfortunately allowing 442 yards of their own.) Wyoming has to start the season with its backup QB in Levi Williams, who looked decent vs. a weak Warriors team last week. But it's still significant to note that the Cowboys are down signifcant pieces, including to starting quarterback Sean Chambers is out indefinitely with a fractured fibula. Others include RB Titus Swen and offensive lineman Alonzo Velazquez, while defensive end Garrett Crall is questionable.

The picks: Colorado State will settle down here at home. The defense has a big opportunity to bounce back here as well. The offense though looked great in the dual QB system with Todd Centeio and Patrick O'Brien. This is definitely one of those cases where we should not "overreact" after the Week 1 results. Look for the Rams depth to be the difference here and I also expect a much better defensive effort. Outright is possible, but let's grab the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Colorado State.

The set-up: Most of Buffalo's defense from last year returns. The unit would go on to give up less than three TD's in five of its last six games last year. NIU has QB Ross Bowers under center, but the Huskies are dealing with a huge turnover of players on both sides of the ball this season. Bower was sacked 18 times last year and he had more INT's than TD's. Buffalo is also 4-1 ATS the last five in this series. Buffalo also welcomes back its biggest offensive weapon in RB Jaret Patterson, who averaged 5.8 YPC last year. Buffalo QB Kyle Vantrease is also back, and he had 1,200 yards passing, eight touchdowns and only two interceptions. 

The picks: NIU is also only 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog, while Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a favorite. Buffalo had some issues with covid a few weeks ago, but I still think it'll easily pull away down the stretch vs. this Huskies team that is basically starting from scratch. I'm laying the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo.

The set-up: I like to wait to write my analysis until as close to game time as possible, as that allows all last information to come in. Today though I'm having major internet problems, so will not be able to give my full and proper analysis. I apologize for that, but I'm unable to access most of the information that I normally have access too.

The pick: Note that Mississippi State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a double-digit home loss, while Alabama is 2-8 ATS in its last ten following an ATS win. Alabama gets caught looking ahead to its bye week here, so grab the points!

This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on Mississippi State.

The set-up: I like to wait to write my analysis until as close to game time as possible, as that allows all last information to come in. Today though I'm having major internet problems, so will not be able to give my full and proper analysis. I apologize for that, but I'm unable to access most of the information that I normally have access too.

The pick: The "over" has hit in four of these teams last five vs. each other and I expect that strong trend to continue here. This number is low, the play is the over!

This is a 9* SITUATIONAL TOP TOTAL on the OVER App State/Louisiana Monroe.

The set-up:

The pick:

This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas.

The set-up: I like to wait to write my analysis until as close to game time as possible, as that allows all last information to come in. Today though I'm having major internet problems, so will not be able to give my full and proper analysis. I apologize for that, but I'm unable to access most of the information that I normally have access too. 

The pick: Iowa State is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a 25 points or higher favorite on the road and coming off a SU/ATS loss. I'm grabbing the points!

This is an 8* LIVE DOG DESTRUCTION on Kansas. 

The set-up: UNLV finished last in the Mountain West last year, going 4-8 overall and 2-6 in league play. The Rebels only won four games, but two of those wins came right at the end of the year. SDSU was second in the Mountainwest last year, going 10-3 and 5-3. UNLV QB Kenyon Oblad will have his hands full in this difficult venue, but he does come in with much more experience and with his top three wide receivers from last year. 

The pick: The Aztecs have a new QB in Carson Baker this season, last year he made just 24 passes. SDSU also has a new starting RB in Chance Bell. SDSU was No. 2 in the nation defensively last year, but the unit also had some turnover this year. With a game at Utah State on Halloween Night up next, I think the home side takes the foot off the gas in the second half, leaving the back door wide open for Oblad and company. Grab as many points as you can.

This is a 10* MOUNTAIN-WEST GAME OF THE YEAR on UNLV.

The set-up: I think Marshall gets caught looking past lowly FAU today. Marshall is ranked No. 22 in the country with a 4-0 record. Last time out it beat Louisiana Tech 35-17. The Thundering Herd have also had two other games postponed due to Covid 19 issues. FAU has only played one game so far this year, a 21-17 victory over Charlotte. The Owls have had to deal with sevreal Covid related issues as well. FAU is led by the dynamic play of dual-threat QB Nick Tronti. 

The pick: Marshall though is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following a 15 points or greater victory in which it also covered the spread, while FAU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after playing with two or more weeks of rest. I like the well rested Owls to sneak in through the back door down the stretch, after Marshall takes the foot off the gas in the second half. Grab the points.

This is an 8* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on FAU.

The set-up: Michigan State defeated Rutgers 27-0 as a 22-point favorite last year, but MSU has a new coach and a new QB and it has plenty of new faces on both sides of the ball. The Spartans lost almost all of their offensive talent from last season's team which struggled with offensive consistency. 

The pick: Rutgers was dead last in the Big Ten last year, but it returns seven starters on offense and eight on defense. Quarterback Noah Vedral doesn't have a lot of experience, but the transfer is decent and is a true dual threat. I look for MSU to get caught looking past its opponent. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

This is an 8* play on Rutgers.

The set-up: CC has a target on its back as the only undefeated team in the Sun Belt. Georgia Southern won this game 30-27 last year. Georgia Southern comes in on top form as well after back-to-back wins, most recently routing UMass 41-0. Georgia Southern is ranked fourth in the country in rushing. JD King has 423 rushing yards so far. CC comes in off a 30-27 win over a ranked Louisiana team. Note though that CC's run defense gave up nearly 300 rushing yards in that one. 

The pick: Georgia Southern is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a road underdog in the +5.5 to +7.5 range and after back-to-back victories. I think Georgia Southern's strong running game is the difference here. Grab the points.

This is an 8* play on Georgia Southern.

The set-up: UNC is looking to lay a beating on NC State after a poor performance in Tallahassee. The Wolfpack are now ranked 23rd after three straight wins, including a 31-20 win over Duke last time out. NC State is led by the dynamic polay of QB Devin Leary, but he's now out for the rest of the season after breaking his fibula late in last week's victory. 

The pick: Florida State had a 31-7 lead over UNC, before the Tar Heels finally fell 31-28. Mack Browns team has all the pieces to bounce back big at home though, led by Heisman Trophy candidate Sam Howell. The Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS their last six at home as well, while the Wolfpack are just 2-8 ATS in their last ten on the road.

This is an 8* play on UNC.

The set-up: Wisconsin plays with revenge here after falling 24-23 to Illinois as a 30-point favorite last season. The Badgers lost their next game after that setback as well to Ohio State last season, but overall the Badgers had another great year. Wisconsin is without the services of starting QB Jack Coan, meaning that Graham Mertz will have his shot at proving himself tonight on the national stage. Wisconsin also doesn't have Jonathan Taylor running the ball anymore, but Nakia Watson is expected to fill in seamlessly. 

The pick: Brandon Peters is back under center for Illinois this year, but most of the pieces he had around him last season have moved on. Peters only completed 55 percent of his passes last season. Illinois' best player is likely kicker James McCourt. Note though that the home side is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series, while Illinois is 0-5 ATS in its last five "Friday night" contests. Look for the Badgers' superior defense to be the difference maker for us down the stretch, as I expect the home side to keep the foot on the gas, even if it has a large lead in the second half. Lay the points.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on Wisconsin.

The set-up: Arkansas State is 1-1 after a 59-52 win as a 3.5 point favorite against Georgia State last weekend. The Red Wolves though allowed 583 total yards of offense. Arkansas State enters first among the ten teams in the Sun Belt by averaging 496 yards of offense per game, but it's also dead last on the defensive end, allowing 481.8 yards. 

The pick: So far the MOuntaineers are 2-1 this season. App State has been off since September 26th and I expect the Mountaineers to come out and run the Red Wolves off the field with their superior play on both ends of the field. So far App State is averaging 31.3 PPG and it's conceding only 19.3. The Mountaineers have plenty of returning talent from last year and I think the extra time off just adds fuel to the fire for the home side. Conversely, after their last loss, I expect the Red Wolves to come out flat-footed here. I'm laying the points and expecting a rout.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on App State.

The set-up: Kentucky has been playing well and I think it'll take this one down to the wire. The Wildcats enter off a 24-2 win over Mississippi State, including posting six interceptions. The Vols enter off a disheartening 44-21 loss to Georgia and I expect them to get caught flat-footed here as well. Quarterback Jarrett Guarantano turned the ball over three times. 

The pick: I think Wildcats' QB Terry Wilson is going to have a big day here. He had 463 yards passing with two touchdowns, along with 221 rushing yards and three more TD's on the ground. The Vols are also just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after a ten points or greater road loss in their previous outing. With Alabama coming to town next weekend, this also sets up as a "look ahead" spot for the home side. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a "nail biter!" 

This is an 8* ROUT on Kentucky.

The set-up: Auburn won 30-28 as a 13.5 point favorite vs. Arkansas last weekend. South Carolina enters off a 41-7 road win over lowly Vanderbilt. Auburn has already beaten a tough Kentucky team 29-13 in its opener, before then falling to Georgia 27-6. It concedes only 22.7 PPG, but so far has only managed 21.7 PPG. That's due in large part to the level of competition it's faced in the early going though. I like Bo Nix to have a big game here. Last week Nix had 187 passing yards and a touchdown, along with 30 rushing yards and another major score. 

The pick: South Carolina comes in off its first win of the year and a letdown is imminent in my opinion. Collin Hill now faces the stiffest defense he's seen all year and I expect him to predictably struggle. While this is a money line wager, I still think it's significant to note that South Carolina is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five at home, while Auburn is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a team with a losing records. Auburn had a sub-par game against Arkansas and still managed to win. I think the Tigers are undervalued here.

This is a 10* MONEY-LINE BLOWOUT on Auburn.

The set-up: SMU enters out of its bye week. Tulane fell 49-31 to Houston last weekend. This is a revenge game for the Green Wave after falling 37-20 to the Mustangs in the final game of the regular season for each team last year. SMU QB Shane Buechele has gone 105 passes without throwing a pick for SMU. The Mustangs average 44 PPG and they allow just 23.3. But with a game at home against leading Cincinnati next weekend, there's no question that this sets up as a classic "look ahead" spot for Buechele and the Mustangs. 

The pick: The Green Wave offense stalled last weekend. The defense was sharp in forucing five turnovers. Michael Pratt was making his first start of his career and he has 141 passing yards and a touchdown. Tulane relies mostly on the run game on offense anyways though and so far it's averaging 37 PPG, while allowing 31. The Green Wave are also 6-1 ATS in their last seven following an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS as a home dog, while the Mustangs are just 1-5 ATS in their last six on the road. No outright, but down to the wire. Grab the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulane.

The set-up: Last season Georiga State upset Arkansas State 52-38 as a 6.5-point underdog and I think it has a legitimate shot at winning this contest outright as well. The Panthers opened the season with a 34-31 OT loss to Louisiana-Lafayette and then had their next contest postponed. On OCtober 3rd they beat ACC foe East Carolina 49-29 as a two-point underdog. Georgia State won the yardage battle 485-286. Cornelious Brown has four touchdowns and three INT's, but the Panthers have averaged 40 PPG, while allowing 31.5. 

The pick: Arkansas State enters off a 50-27 win over FCS opponent Central Arkansas. The Red Wolves won the yardage battle 573 to 411. Arkansas State utilizes two quarterbacks this year in Layne Hatcher and Logan Bonner. The Red Wolves though are 0-3 in their last three as a favorite vs. an FBS opponent, while Georgia State enters with a 6-3 ATS record out of its last nine when playing the role of underdog. The Panthers secondary already has five interceptions, so I think the Red Wolves have a difficult time moving the ball today. I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on Georgia State.

The set-up: The Ragin Cajun's blew the Chanticleers away in last year's 48-7 win, but I expect Coastal Carolina to be much more competitive this season. The Chanticleers went 5-7 last year. This season they're 3-0. Eight starters returned to the offensive side of the ball and in the early going they're averaging 44.3 PPG. CC had 38 in a win over Kansas to open the season. Grayson McCall had 322 yards and four TD's last week. Last year CC allowed 33.2 PPG, this season it's conceding just 22.3.

The pick: UL Lafayette hasn't played since September 26th because of Covid issues. The Ragin Cajuns went 11-3 last year and they're 3-0 this season. In their last game they held on for a 20-18 victory over Georgia Southern. GSU had 447 yards of offense, including 192 on the ground. Overall the Cajuns average 28.3 PPG this season. Coastal Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record though and 5-1 ATS in its last six following a straight-up win of more than 20 points, while Louisiana is 0-4 ATS in its last four conference contests. Revenge is on CC's mind here and while the outright is possible, in the end I'm grabbing up the ample points!

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Coastal Carolina.

The set-up: Mississippi State has a new coach in Mike Leach and they looked great in their season opening win over LSU. But they took a major step back in last week's 21-14 upset loss to Arkansas. The Bulldogs lost Kylin Hill as well last week to injury, last year he led the SEC in rushing. This type of inconsistent effort isn't going to get the job done on the road, especially vs. this incredibly competitive Wildcats team. 

The pick: Kentucky lost by 16 to Auburn, but the Tigers are ranked No. 8 nationally right now. Then last week they unfortunately fell 42-41 to Ole Miss in OT, giving up a late TD to send it into extra time. The Wildcats have a balanced offense and I think their defense will have a big day here vs. this struggling Bulldogs' offense. Mississippi State played sloppy last weekend and I think it's going to struggle again to keep up with this hungry home side as well on Saturday. The play is Kentucky on the money-line!

This is a 10* MONEY-LINE GAME OF THE YEAR on Kentucky.

The set-up: The Horned Frogs are 1-1 on the season and they'll be looking to build off their big upset win over Texas last weekend. Kansas State comes in off back-to-back big wins, winning outright in Oklahoma as a 27-point underdog, before then taking care of business vs. Texas Tech last weekend. These teams only combined for 41 points last year, but I expect a much more explosive affair this time around. K-State is averaging 392.7 YPG and it's allowing 492.3 (the Wildcats have been outgained in both their victories so far.) 

The pick: TCU has already played two really high-scoring affairs, losing 37-34 to Iowa State, before then pulling off the 33-31 upset victory over No. 9 Texas on Saturday. TCU is averaging 478 YPG, while allowing 405.5. While the last four head-to-head meetings between these teams have gone "under," these offenses are firing on all cylinders this year and I expect that trend to carry over into this one. This contest has "shootout" written all over it.

This is an 8* O/U DESTRUCTION on the OVER K-State/TCU.

The set-up: The Aggies look to regroup after last week's 52-24 loss to the Crimson Tide. The Aggies' issues are on offense though, as Kellen Mond has offensive line issues, which has led to him having zero chemistry with receivers at this point. Prior to the Bama loss, Florida struggled in a 17-12 win over lowly Vandy. The Aggies defense though has been fantastic, allowing just 3.2 yards per carry and a 44 percent third-down conversion rate. 

The pick: Kyle Trask and the Gators will have their hands full here. Trask so far has ten TD's and just one INT. The offense has averaged 44.5 PPG in the early going. Last week the defense held South Carolina to 329 yards. Florida head coach Dan Mullen though likes to run out the clock while on offense, to keep opposing offenses off the field. Expect a lot of running from both sides on offense and for this total to indeed stay well "under" once it's all said and done.

This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Florida/Texas A&M.

The set-up: Both teams enter at 1-2. I'm expecting a defensive affair. 15 projected starters returned for the Cardinals this year, so the team was expecting to improve upon its 8-5 showing from last season. Louisville will be desperate here to avoid an 0-3 start in ACC play. QB Malik Cunningham had 22 TDs and only five INTs last year, but he's already thrown five picks over his first three games this season. Despite getting outgained 376-223 to Pittsburgh last week, Louisville still only lost by three points. Louisville averages 29.7 PPG and it allows 30.3. 

The pick: The Yellow Jackets have struggled defensively as well in conceding 33 PPG, but their offense has been worse in averaging just 19 PPG. Georgia Tech's offense is still a work in progress though and I think it'll struggle here vs. this focussed Louisville side. GT has yet to score 20 points in a games this year, while Louisville has seen less than 57 total points scored in two of its first three this season. Neither QB has been great, so it's time for these defeneses to finally shine. This number is a tad hight.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Louisville/Georgia Tech.

The set-up: K-State beat Oklahoma last year as a big underdog, so I definitely thought that the Sooners would be out for revenge this season, but a late meltdown last week led to a second consecutive loss to the Wildcats as a 28 point favorite. Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler threw three interceptions, so that obviously didn't help. Iowa State was upset by the Ragin Cajuns two weeks ago, but the Cyclones held on for a 37-34 win over TCU last weekend. I am not going to over-react here to the Sooners "brain fart" last weekend..instead I will look at the positives and expect Oklahoma to bounce back this week. Rattler, while he did throw the three interceptions, he also threw for 375 yards and four touchdowns. It was Rattler's second consecutive four touchdown game. Drake Stoops, son of former coach Bob Stoops caught three passes for 93 yards and a touchdown. The Sooners looked poor defensively though, they allowed 334 passing yards and did not record a turnover. 

The pick: Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy had 211 yards passing and one touchdown, while Breece Hall had three rushing touchdowns in the win over the Horned Frogs last weekend. The Cyclones win came at a cost though, as two offensive linemen were lost in Trevor Downing and Robert Hudson. The Iowa State defense was a big of a mixed back, posting seven sacks, but also allowing 400 passing yards. I think that Rattler is going to be able to exploit this and I like the Sooners defense to bounce back after that atrocious fourth quarter last week. I'll finish off by pointing out that Iowa State is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four following a straight-up victory.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma.

The set-up: Cincinnati is 2-0 on the season after beating Army last time out. USF won its first game over Citadel 27-6, before then getting destroyed 52-0 by the Irish. Then last week the Bulls game vs. FAU was postponed due to Covid. South Florida will be running the ball a ton here and I think the home side gets caught "looking ahead" today. 

The pick: In fact, the Bearcats enjoy their bye-week after this. And finally note that Cincinnati is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after back-to-back ATS victories. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on South Florida.

The set-up: The Red Raiders play with revenge here after falling 30-27 in this game last year. Texas Tech comes in off a tough loss to Texas, but they were a massive underdog and they have to be feeling good about how they played. Now they get to take out their frustrations on a contented K-State team which just upset Oklahoma for the second time in two years as a 28 point underdog. In the end Texas Tech had 441 yards, with QB Alex Bowman throwing for five TDs. 

The pick: K-State trailed for the first three quarters, but a complete collapse by Oklahoma in the fourth proved to be the difference. It was a surprising result, considering that K-State has several players sidelined with Covid. Skyler Thompson had three rushing TD's and one passing. Both teams took their respective ranked opponents down to the wire, but one came away with the victory, while the other came up JUST short. Give me the hungrier dog in this fight and take the points in the process!

This is a 9* 'PLAY-BOOK' on Texas Tech.

The set-up: Texas won this game last year by a score of 49-24, but I think the stage is set for a much closer battle this time around. The Longhorns are 1-0 after beating UTEP 59-3, and the Red Red Raiders are also 1-0 after beating Houston Baptist by a score of 35-33. Texas is looking to improve upon its 8-5 record from last year. Sam Ehlinger is back under center to direct an offense which averaged 35.2 PPG. The weakness is on the defensive end though, as the unit allowed 27.5 PPG last season. That defense should be improved, but it now clearly faces a much tougher offense this week. 

The pick: Texas Tech will have its hands full through all three phases, but with QB Alan Bowman under center, I love the Red Raiders chances here. Bowman can keep his team in late. Last year he only played in three games, but he finished with 1,020 yards, six TD's and three INT's in that span. Texas Tech also welcomes back three of its top four receivers, led by KeSean Carter. Yes, the Red Raiders are destined to be terrible defensively again this season (they allowed 600 yards in th ewin over HBU), but the unit does return eight starters, so minor improvement is also expected. The Red Raiders' schedule doesn't easier either with games at K-State and Iowa State up next. Texas on the other hand will get caught "looking ahead" here with a game at home vs. TCU, follow by at Oklahoma, vs. Baylor and at Oklahoma State all on deck next. No outright, but much closer than expected in my opinion. Grab the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas Tech.

The set-up: I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the underdog to win outright in this NCAAF contest. Southern Miss is a disaster, it enters off a 32-21 loss at home to South Alabama as a 14 point favorite. Last year Louisiana Tech hammered the Golden Eagles 45-30 in this game. Louisiana Tech lost QB J'Mar Smith, which is significant, but his back up knows the system and is ready to go. Aaron Allen had 446 yard spassing with three TD's and one INT as a backup last season and he benefits from having almost 100% of the rest of last season's offense around him. And his defense looks better as well. 

The pick: The Golden Eagles' head coach Jay Hopson resigned after ten years after last week's loss. That's not good news for this fragile team in my opinion. Golden Miss only averaged 2.6 YPC last week and note that it's just 1-4 ATS in its last five games played in the month of September. Southern Miss just gave up 500 yards to a poor South Alabama team and I think it'll struggle again here vs. LA Tech as well this week. 

This is a 10* MONEY-LINE PLAY OF THE WEEK on Louisiana Tech.

The set-up: Last year OSU won this contest 40-21 on the road and I expect a similar final combined score here as well, as it sneaks "under" this sky-high number. Interesting to note, that Tulsa actually ahd a 21-20 lead at half time, but OCU scored 20 unanswered and locked down defensively in the second half for the big victory. Tulsa was only 4-8 last year and its offense revolves around its two senior RB's in Corey Taylor II and Shamari Brooks. QB Zach Smith had 3,279 yards passing last year, with 20 TD's and nine INT's. 

The pick: The Cowboys were 8-5 last year and averaged 32.5 PPG. OSU returns NCAAF's leading rusher in Chuba Hubbard as well. Spender Sanders had 16 TD passes and 11 INT's. Also note, the Cowboys return their entire defensive core. Two years ago OSU allowed 30-plus PPG. Last year it allowed 26.8. Now the Cowboys are once again expected to take a big step in a positive direction defensively. And that's bad news for this run first Tulsa side. This number is too high, the play is the under.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Tulsa/Oklahoma.

The set-up: This is a big game for Florida State. The Seminoles have endured back-to-back poor seasons under Willie Taggert, but he's out this season and Mike Norvell is in. Norvell was extremely successful as the head coach at Memphis last year, leading it to an AAC title while averaging 40.5 points in the process. Georiga Tech switched up its offense last year under then first year head coach Geoff Collins, but it's hard to imagine this rebuilding visiting side doing much better than it's 3-9 record from 2019. James Graham returns under center for GT, or does he? In fact, as of writing this the Yellowjackets haven't even named their starting QB. GT's defense was one of the worst in the country and while it should improve, it won't be too dramatically. Unfortunately this year GT is being thrown to the wolves this season, without any non-conference "cream-puffs" to warm up on. 

The pick: FSU has its No. 1 QB back (James Blackmon) and its top receiver in Tamorrian Terry back and ready to prove themselves. The Seminoles were poor defensively last year, but ten of 11 starters are back and I think that spells big trouble for the QB-less Jackets. GT is a "Power 5" team in name only, the product on the field today is going to be a sub-par and I think the Seminoles will take FULL advantage. Lay the points.

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on FSU.

The set-up: Yes UAB crushed Central Arkansas 45-35 at home last weekend, but I think the Blazers will have a much more difficult time vs. this Hurricanes team which went a sub-par 6-7 last year. Tyler Johnson III is a decent QB and Spencer Brown a good RB, but I believe they'll struggle here in this difficult road venue. 

The pick: Miami fans have a lot to be excited about this season, as D'Eriq King transferred over from Houston. King is a dynamic QB and he's going to want to prove himself here. The Miami Florida defense lost a few starters, but overall the unit remains a strenght of the team. I have a hard time seeing UAB keeping up to King and company down the stretch. Lay the points!

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Florida.

The set-up: Navy was 11-2 last year, but it enters having lost dynamic play-making QB Malcom Perry. Dalen Morris is now in charge of running the triple option, but he'll obviously need at least a few games under his belt to gain chemistry. Expect to see a heavy dose of Navy's two top RB's from last year in Jamale Carothers and Nelson Smith. The defense was also a strength last season, allowing just 22.3 PPG. 

The pick: BYU was 7-6 last year, but the Cougars should definitely improve with 15 starters returning, including eight on offense. That includes QB Zach Wilson, who will look to improve upon his 11:9 TD:INT. Look for BYU to also lean heavily on its running game here on offense, as its top three RB's return this season. Also note that the defense was strong for the Cougars last year, allowing just 25.5 PPG and that unit should be much stronger with 12 of its top 14 tacklers returning. This one screams "under," with both teams looking to establish the run while on offense. This number is high.

The is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER BYU/Navy.

The set-up: MTSU was 4-8 overall last year, while Army was 5-8. The Black Knights finished third in the country in rushing, as it lacked offensive punch through the air and struggled on the defensive end. MTSU's issues on offense were much bigger though and its inability to sustain drives would then lead to added pressure on the defense. MTSU uses a two QB system, with Asher O'Hara and Chase Cunningham splitting duties. 

The pick: Army averaged 28.5 PPG and it allowed 23 last season. Christian Anderson is the new QB, who will be leaning heavily upon returning RB Sandon McCoy, who had ten rushing TD's a year ago. MTSU should improve, but I think Army's relentless rushing attack, combined with its superior defense will see it pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover. Lay the points.

The is a 10* NON-CONF. BLOWOUT on Army.

The set-up: South Alabama was just 2-8 last year, but with QB Desmond Trotter back under center, along with most of the defensive unit, the Jaguars are expected to take a big step forward. Trogger had 820 yards passing with eight touchdowns and two interceptions in seven games. Four starters return to the offensive line as well. Trotter also has six of the Jag's top seven receivers returning. Also seven of the top eight defenders return.

The pick: Southern Miss was 7-6 last year and senior QB Jack Abraham is back after completing nearly 68 percent of his chances, with 19 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Abraham though lost five of his top seven pass receivers, and while the defense will be a strength of the team, the questions marks on the other side of the ball are a concern to open the season in my opinion. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

The is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on South Alabama.

The set-up: If you're watching and wagering on this game, then you know the story lines and strengths/weaknesses of each team. LSU has been an unstoppable juggernaut this year, but note that the underdog has covered in six straight National Championship Games. The defending champs can draw from experience here as well. LSU and Joe Burrow have been the "talk of the town," but this Clemson offense and defense has the talent (and as mentioned above, the experience in "the big game!") to not only cover this game, but to obviously win outright as well. We don't have to look further than some of the NFL upsets or near upsets etc. The Titans are a well coached team which has game-planned perfectly to advance to the Conference Championships. 

The pick: LSU has had some "close calls" as well this season (Texas, Auburn and Alabama.) On top of the underdog covering in six straight Nat Champ Games, note as well that Clemson is 5-1 ATS in its last six when playing on two weeks rest, while LSU is 0-4 ATS this year after posting 450 yards or more of offense in its prevoius game. I think Dabo Swinney still has something up his sleeve. Grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson.

The set-up: It's 8-5 Miami Ohio vs. 10-3 Louisiana Lafayette in the Lending Tree Bowl and in my opinion, this one has ATS blowout written all over it. Despite ranking 77th in the KemPom power rankings, Miami Ohio still made it to this bowl game. Lafayette ranks 11th in the KenPom rankings (and note that two of the Cajuns losses this year came from App State by a combined 17 points.) The RedHawks had an easy schedule this year and QB Brett Gabbert finished with an unimpressive 11:8 TD:INT. The Cajuns average 38.8 PPG, led by QB Levi Lewis who had a 24:4 TD:INT. 

The pick: Note that the RedHawks are just 2-10 ATS in their last non-conference games, while Louisiana Lafayette is already 3-1 ATS this season as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. Look for the high-powered Cajuns to dominate throughout all three phases and lay the points.

10* BLOWOUT on UL Lafayette.

The set-up: Tulane is 6-6 and I think it'll give 7-5 Southern Miss everything it can handle today. Both teams backed their way into this Bowl game and each has had plenty of time off to prepare. Tulane's best win of the year came against Houston, 38-31 this season. Overall the Green Wave average 455.2 YPG, which ranks 24th nationally. Tulane isn't terrible defensively either, allowing 378.9 YPG. The Golden Eagles also had some big wins, including a road victory over Troy. Back-to-back losses to end the year didn't help though, falling 28-10 to WKU and 34-17 to FAU. 

The pick: Tulane though is already 5-1 ATS this year as a favorite, while Southern Miss is just 1-3 ATS as an underdog. The Wave have a healthier team on the field today and I think that matters. I'm laying the points and expecting a rout.

10* BLOWOUT on Tulane.

The set-up: Ohio finished 6-6 and Nevada was 7-5. The Bobcats needed to win their last two games to become eligible. Ohio put up 66 and 52 points over its final two games, but I expect a more conservative score here once it's all said and done. The Bobcats rely on their run game on offense, one which actually ranks 22nd in the country by averaging 216.5 YPG. The Wolfpack had their three-game win streak snapped with a loss in their finale. QB Carson Strong was a bright spot in defeat, throwing for 351 yards, one TD and no INT's. 

The pick: Ohio's defense also improve down the stretch and that unit is going to be tested throughout by the powerful run game of Nevada. Additionally note that Ohio has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five after two straight wins by 21 or more points, while Nevada has seen the total dip below in 12 of its last 18 as an underdog. This one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than a "run and gun shootout." This number is a tad high in my opinion.

10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER Ohio/Nevada.

The set-up: The Vols went 7-5 and the Hoosiers went 8-4. Indiana' QB Payton Ramsey finished with 2,227 yards passing with 13 TD's in ten games. The Hoosiers averaged 444 yards per game on offense, including 308.7 per game through the air, which ranked 13th in the country. Indiana was also stout on the defensive side, allowing only 24.5 PPG, which ranks 49th. Vols' QB Jarrett Guarantano threw for 1,937 yards and a 16:6 TD:INT. A blow to Tennessee's offense today though is the loss of WR Jauan Jennings, who had 942 receiving yards and eight major scores, but who is suspended. 

The pick: Additionally note that Tennessee is a disturbingly poor 3-10 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite (including just 1-3 ATS this season), while Indiana is 7-3 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with winning records. I like Ramsey to take advantage of the Vols' suspect secondary. Grab the points.

8* BLOWOUT on Indiana.

The set-up: BC became bowl eligible after knocking off Pittsburgh in its regular season finale. Cincinnati was rolling along nicely until back-to-back losses to Memphis (losing in the regular season finale, as well as the Conference USA Championship game.)BC Head Coach Steve Addazio was let go, so that means that this one means a lot to interim coach Rich Gunnel. BC' QB Dennis Grosel stepped in admirably for Anthony Brown and I think he'll have his opportunities vs. this Bearcats' secondary which ranks 80th in the league vs. the pass. BC is going to have its hands full stopping Cincinnati's rush attack, which averages 198 YPG on the ground. QB Desmond Ridder had a week 17:9 TD:INT though. 

The pick: I'll point out as well that BC is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine as a dog in teh 3.5 to ten points range (including 5-0 ATS this year), while Cinncy is just 1-3 ATS in its last four when playing with two weeks or more of rest. I'm grabbing the points.

10* BLOWOUT on Boston College.

The set-up: Baylor is 11-2 and Georgia is 11-2. The Bears are the fifth ranked team in the country and the Bulldogs are the seventh. The Bears average 35.2 PPG and they allow 19.3. Georgia was in the Sugar Bowl last year and it lost. The Bulldogs will be especially motivated tonight. Georgia averages 31.2 PPG and it allows only 12.5, but I think the defense is pushed to the brink here by this Bears' high-flying offensive attack. 

The pick: Note as well that Baylor has seen the total fly over the number in three of its last four after two weeks or more of rest, while Georgia has seen the total fly over in five of its last seven neutral site affairs when the total is set between 41.5 and 45. This number is a tad low in my opinion.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Baylor/Georgia.

The set-up: I like the 11-2 Ducks and the points vs. the 10-3 Badgers. The Ducks upset Utah 37-15 in the Pac 12 Championship and I look for them to carry that momentum over here. That was a huge victory and it catapulted them immediately into this contest, while ruining the Utes' chances at a playoff spot. Perhaps the most impressive part of the victory was holding the powerful Utes to just 15 points. I think senior Justin Herbert wil be a difference maker here, as he enters with a sharp 32:5 TD:INT. The Badgers had a 21-7 lead over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game, but then the Buckeyes blew them out 27-0 in the second half. QB Justin Fields was a bright spot in the setback with 300 yards and three TD's, but I believe he'll have his hands full with a Ducks' defense which held six teams to single-digits in points this year.  

The pick: Note as well that Wisconsin is already 0-2 ATS this year off a loss vs. a conference rival, while Oregon is 4-1 ATS in its last five after a win by 21 points or more. I like Herbert and the Ducks' suffocating defense to build off their latest performance; grab the points.

8* BLOWOUT on Oregon.

The set-up: 10-2 Minnesota takes on 9-3 Auburn in the Outback Bowl and in my opinion, I think the Tigers have a clear upper-hand. Both teams looked pretty good overall this year. Minnesota lost 38-17 to Wisconsin in its finale. QB Tanner Morgan had a sharp 28:6 TD:INT this season, but I think he'll have his hands full here with this stingy Tigers' defense. Auburn comes in with a ton of momentum after holding on for an upset 47-45 win over Alabama in its finale. QB Bo Nix had a 15:6 TD:INT. The defense allows only 18.6 PPG. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is a poor 3-5 ATS in its last eight as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Auburn is a strong 6-2 ATS this season when playing the role of favorite. I think the Tigers' defense is the difference maker. Lay the points.

8* BLOWOUT on Auburn.

The set-up: It's 9-3 Michigan vs. 10-2 Alabama. Michigan QB Shea Patterson finished with a 22:6 TD:INT. The Wolverines allow just 3.03 YPC on the defensive side. For the most part Michigan looked pretty good this year, but it did struggle against its elite opponents, which led to the overall disappointing record once it was all said and done.

The pick: Talk about disappointments, the fact that the Tide weren't in the playoff was viewed by many as a major mistake. A loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl was the final nail in the coffin to their hopes. That said, I still think that Mac Jones is going to have his opportunities here. Additionally note that Michigan is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a dog (including only 1-2 ATS this season,) while Bama is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring and allowing 30 points or more in its previous outing. Lay the points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Alabama.

The set-up: I like the 11-2 Utes to lay the hammer down on the 7-5 Longhorns. Utah is out for redemption here as it fell 37-15 in the Pac 12 Championship Game to Oregon. Sam Ehlinger and Texas beat Texas Tech 49-24 in their finale. Overall the Longhorns average 35 PPG, while allowing 28.9. The Utes though are ranked sixth in the country on the defensive side of the ball, allowing only 13.2 PPG. Utah also possesses a strong offense, led by QB Tyler Huntley who has 2,966 passing yards and an 18:4 TD:INT. 

The pick: Note that Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records, while Texas is only 1-5 ATS in its last six following an ATS victory. The Utes' elite defense will be able to center in on Ehlinger here and I believe that Texas will have a hard time keeping pace down the stretch. Lay the points.

8* play on Utah.

The set-up: 7-5 Georgia State gets ready to pull off an upset over 7-5 Wyoming. The Cowboys though finised up terribly, losing three of their last four. Wyoming is very one-dimensional on the offensive end, ranked 27th in rushing and 125th with the pass. The Cowboys also only concede 17.8 PPG. Georgia State also stumbled down the stretch, losing three of four and just like the Cowboys, the Panthers rely on a strong run game on the offensive side of the ball, averaging 245.2 YPG, which is ranked 14th in the country. 

The pick: Wyoming only averages 24.3 PPG though, and that drops to just 15.3 PPG over its last four. The Panthers were terrible defensively down the stretch, but those numbers are skewed in my opinion due to the level of the competition. Georgia State' QB Dan Ellington had a sharp 21:7 TD:INT and I think he'll keep his team competitive late. Wyoming is sixth against the rush, but 111th against the pass. Look for Ellington and the Panthers to take advantage. Grab the points.

8* play on Georgia State.

The set-up: I like K-State to pull off the minor upset here today vs. 10-2 Navy. Kansas State finished 8-4 and won its last two games. The Midshipmen won eight of their final nine contests. Navy most recently crushed hapless Army, outrushing the Knights 395-123. K-State' QB Skylar Thompson though is a dual threat, throwing for 2,000 yards and 12 TD's, while running in for another ten on the ground. 

The pick: K-State held both Iowa State and Texas Tech to less than 80 rushing yards each in its final two victories of the year and I believe they're going to be able to slow down this run heavy Navy attack. Additionally note that K-State is 6-2 ATS already this year when playing the role of underdog, while Navy is already only 1-3 ATS this season after allowing 14 points or less in its previous outing. Grab the points.

8* play on Kansas State. 

The set-up: I think that 6-6 Florida State will have its hands full with 7-5 Arizona State. Both teams enter with some momentum. FSU though got crushed in its final game vs. Florida, while ASU, who has looked far from perfect, will still now be looking to build off its season closing 31-28 upset win over Oregon, which pushed it out of the championship. FSU is led by James Blackman and RB Cam Akers, who had 1,144 rushing yards and 14 TD's. At the end of the day the Seminoles averaged 29.1 PPG. ASU' QB Jayden Daniels had 400 passing yards and three TD's in the win over Oregon. Daniels is a difference maker here in my opinion, as the talented back finished with a sharp 17:2 TD:INT. 

The pick: Additionally note that FSU is a poor 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as a dog and 1-3 ATS in its last four after playing with two weeks or more of rest, while ASU is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 following a SU loss. I think the balance that ASU presents on both sides of the ball will be too much for FSU to handle down the stretch. Lay the points.

8* play on ASU.

The set-up: I like the 8-4 Virginia Tech Hokies to find a way to get the job done here. Kentucky is 7-5 and is reliant upon its ground game on offense, while VT has a much more balanced attack. Ultimately I believe it's this balance which will win the day on this one. VT had won three straight before then falling 39-30 to UVA in rivarly week. QB Hendon Hooker was decen this year with 1,445 yards passing and an 11:2 TD:INT. 

The pick: The Wildcats ended the season with a 45-13 win over Louisville, as Lynn Bowden Jr. had 284 yards and four TD's. I think VT though can slow down Bowden Jr and note that the Wildcats are just 1-5 ATS in their last six after covering the spread in six or seven out of their last eight games, while VT is 3-1 ATS in its last four after playing with two weeks or more of rest. Lay the points.

8* play on Virginia Tech.

The set-up: Virginia lost to Clemson in the ACC Title game and finished 9-4, while Florida wasn't quite as good as Georgia in the SEC, but still finishing 10-2. The Cavs fell 62-17 to Clemson in the title game, but overall UVA has been solid on both sides of the ball, averaging 32.4 PPG and allowing 26.5. The Gators are averaging 33 PPG and allowing only 14.4. I think UVA is going to have difficulties moving the ball again vs. this Florida defense which is ranked among the best in the nation. 

The pick: Note as well that UVA has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five following a two weeks or longer lay off, while Florida has seen the total go under in four of its last five vs. teams with winning records. Florida went over the number just four times this year and I don't expect that strong trend to change tonight. Play the under. 

10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER UVA/Florida.

The set-up: Outright win? It's possible obviously. But in a contest which I envision to be very competitive, I'm going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Both teams finished 6-6. Cal had to win its last two games to become eligible, while Illinois backed its way into this Bowl after losing its final two outings. Cal is stout defensively, allowing only 22.1 PPG. Unfortunatley it only averages 20.1 PPG, led by QB Chase Garbers. The Illini lost 19-10 to Iowa and then 29-10 to Northwestern. Illinois though averages 27.3 PPG, while allowing 25.4. 

The pick: Despite injuries, I like the Fighting Illini here. Note as well that they're 8-4 ATS in their last 12 off two straight loss against conference rivals (including 2-0 ATS this season,) while Cal is only 5-8 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite (including just 2-4 ATS this year.) Grab the points.

8* BLOWOUT on Illinois.

The set-up: Louisville finished second behind Clemson in the ACC Atlantic at 7-5. After three straight victories it dropped its finale 45-13 to Kentucky. The road to this bowl was more difficult for Mississippi State though, which finshed 6-6, including a close one in its finale vs. Ole Miss to finally become eligible. The Cards like to run the ball, but expect to see a heavy dose of QB Micale Cunningham, as the Bulldogs are allowing 241.3 passing yards per game. Mississippi State likes to run the ball as well, averaging 226.9 YPG and while the Cardinals have struggled against the run this year, Louisville isn't going to have to worry about much of a passing attack this evening, as the Bulldogs are outside the Top 100 in that category, averaging 176 passing YPG. 

The pick: Note as well that Mississippi State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a neutral site favorite and only 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory, while Louisville is 3-1 ATS already this season after allowing 37 points or more in its previous outing. I'm grabbing the points. 

8* BLOWOUT on Louisville.

The set-up: I like 7-5 Western Michigan to pull off the minor upset vs. 8-4 WKU. The Hilltoppers have a decent offense, but they're led by their defense which allows 20.1 PPG. WMU though will be especially motivated here in my opinion because of the way its season ended. The Broncos lost to NIU 17-14 in their finale, which cost them a shot in the MAC Title game. WMU's offense though is among the best in the nation, averaging 34.2 PPG, behind a 24th ranked rushing attack. WKU QB Ty Storey has a weak 12:5 TD:INT. WMU is 69th in the country in defending the pass and 94th vs. the run. 

The pick: I'll point out though that WMU is 6-0 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss and 9-4 ATS in its last 13 after scoring less than 20 points in its previous contest, while WKU is only 5-13 ATS in its last 18 as a favorite. WMU has a balanced offense as mentioned above, led by RB LeVante Ballamy, who has 1,412 rushing yards and 23 TD's. I'm expecting the outright, but in the end I'll grab the points.

8* BLOWOUT on WMU.

The set-up: Clemson is 13-0 and Ohio State is 12-1. If you're betting and watching and this game, then the overall story lines and cast of characters are well known to you. The strengths and weaknesses are also well known to even a casual NCAAF fan. I don't need to break down individual player matchups, because I don't think it's necessary. While both teams have been exceptional on the defensive side of the ball, both have also been unreal offensively and ultimately I think that the longer lay off will be more beneficial to each teams offense. The Tigers have averaged 54.2 PPG over their last six games and just put up 62 vs. a stingy Virginia defense in the ACC Title game. Not to be outdone though, Ohio State is ranked No. 1 in the nation by averaging 48.7 PPG behind the strong play of QB Justin Fields.

The pick: Note as well that Clemson has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games, while Ohio State has seen the total fly over the number in both games already this season in which it's had two weeks or more of rest in. This one has "shootout" written all over it.

10* BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Clemson/OSU.

The set-up: I'm not calling for an outright upset, but with nothing to loe, I like Oklahoma to keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Oklahoma is in its third playoff in a row and it's done it with three different QB's. This is a team which won't be intimidated in the "big moment." Jalen Hurts is a legit NFL prospect and I look for him to go down fighting. Ed Orgeron and QB Joe Burrow come into this game with an unblemished 13-0 record so far. In four of their last five games they've scored at least 46 points. But Hurts has the ability to keep this one close in my opinion. 

The pick: Oklahoma has been fantastic in this spot as wel lfor bettors, going 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog and 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference games, while LSU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival. Burrow has been amazing. The Tigers have a great defense as well. But the long lay off is going to cause some issues with chemistry in my opinion. I think the Sooners' overall experience in this big game pays dividends for the team here and helps in keeping this one much closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma.

The set-up: Iowa State was 7-5 and Notre Dame was 10-2. Iowa State lost a bunch of "close" games this year. QB Brock Purdy had 12 TD's and just two INT's over his final four games. 

The pick: Ian Book didn't have nearly as good a season this time around as last for the Irish, but I still give him the nod in this spot. I also believe that the Irish easily have the defense to hang with Iowa State's vaunted unit. Additionally note that Iowa State is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more straight losses vs. the spread, while ND is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 10 opints range, including 3-1 ATS this season. I'm banking on a blowout from start to finish.

8* BLOWOUT on Notre Dame.

The set-up: Outright upset? Very possible! Memphis comes in with confidence and momentum after beating Cincinnati 29-24 in the AAC Championship Game. Memphis is led by QB Brady White, who had 3,560 passing yards with a 33:9 TD:INT. The Tigers average 39.3 PPG and they won't be lacking for motivation here after going 0-4 in their last four bowl games. The Nittany Lions are led by QB Sean Clifford, who has 2,561 yards passing and a 22:6 TD:INT. Penn State only averages 30.3 PPG. 

The pick: Of importance to note in my opinion is the fact that Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing with two weeks or more of rest, while Penn State is just 5-6 ATS as a favorite this season. The Tigers have played three ranked opponents since November and they're 3-0. I think the long lay off benefits the offense of the underdog here. That said, grab the points.

8* BLOWOUT on Memphis.

The set-up: These are two teams that want to actually win this game and I believe that focus and intensity will translate into offensive production on the field of play tonight. WSU is coming off a listless loss to Washington in its finale, held to just 13 points. Clearly this top 10 Cougars offense will be eager to get back on track here. Expect WSU to air it out early and often with dynamic QB Anthony Gordon today. 

The pick: The Falcons enter having won seven straight. Air Force has a top 40 offense and a top 20 defense. Donald Hammond III will have his opportunities today as well vs. a Cougars' secondary which allows nearly 290 passing yards per game. I think this has one has "track meet" written all over it.

10* play on the OVER WSU/Air Force.

The set-up: It's 8-4 USC vs. 9-3 Iowa. The Trojans are going to try and air this one out, while the Hawkeyes will try to slow it down and grind out a victory. USC averages 33.2 PPG and it allows 27.7. Iowa averages only 23.8 PPG, but it only allows 13.1. USC lost to heavy weights Notre Dame, Washington and Oregon this year and it's led by Kedon Slovis, who I think will be a difference maker today (28:9 TD:INT.) He benefits from throwing to one of the best WR's in the country in Michael Pittman Jr. 

The pick: Iowa QB Nate Stanley has a 14:4 TD:INT. The Hawkeyes are also just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a favorite, while USC is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog. I think the long time off to prepare benefits the USC defense and I like Slovis to push the pace from start to finish. That said, grab the points.

8* play on USC.

The set-up: OKS is 7-4 and A&M is 7-5. In a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to recommend grabbing the points. The Cowboys will use two QB's today in Spencer Sanders and Dru Brown. OKS' defense leaves everything to be desired, but I expect this Mike Gundy led team to keep it close with its relentless attack through the air. 

The pick: Jimbo Fisher's second year at A&M has been a disappointment. Kellen Mond lacks weapons. The defense is the bright spot for the Aggies, but I think it'll have its hands full with this Cowboys "air raid" offensive style. I'm grabbing the points and expecting this one to come down to the wire.

8* play on Oklahoma State.

The set-up: MSU became eligible after beating Rutgers and Maryland. Wake Forest ended it's regular season campaign by losing three of four, but it was competitive in each loss, including a 39-30 setback to the Orange in its finale. The Spartans are led by Brian Lewerke, who had nearly 600 yards passing over his final two games. But that was against some pretty weak competition that didn't have a whole month to plan for this game. The MSU run game is weak and I think its offense will struggle to keep pace down the stretch. 

The pick: The Deacons have a more balanced attack, led by a run game which averages 297.8 YPG. WF QB Jamie Newman is superior too in my opinion, he finished with a 23:10 TD:INT. Michigan State is also just 2-4 ATS in its last six when playing with two weeks or more of rest and a terrible 1-7 ATS in its last eight after playing a conference game, while WF is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog. Grab the points.

8* play on Wake Forest.

The set-up: It's 6-6 UNC vs. 8-4 Temple. I like the team from the ACC. The Tar Heels played the much tougher schedule and are in a much tougher conference. That didn't work out well for Miami last night, but that was partly because of the fact that they through in a new QB just before the game. UNC pivot Sam Howell had 3,347 passing yards with 35 TD's and seven INT's. Overall the Tar Heels average 285 YPG through the air. 

The pick: Temple QB Anthony Russo has a more pedestrian 21:12 TD:INT. The UNC run game is superior as well and I think this depth on offense will prove to be too much for Temple to keep up with down the stretch. Lay the points.

8* play on UNC.

The set-up: Pitt fell 26-19 to Boston College at home in its regular season finale, while EMU also lost its final game, falling 34-26 to Kent State. The Panthers though come in with zero momentum as they dropped their final two games of the year, including getting blanked by Virginia Tech in their second to last game. Pittsburgh averages only 20.1 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other end by allowing only 21.8. 

The pick: EMU averages 29.1 PPG and it allows 30.3. With a month off to prepare for this one though, I think that Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi can contain the Eagles' offense. The Panthers will indeed look to control the clock throughout this contest while on offense and in a scenario like this, the "under" is the correct call in my opinion. 

10* BLOWOUT on the UNDER Pitts/EMU.

The set-up: The Bulldogs went 9-3 this season and for their above average performance, they get the 6-6 Hurricanes in the Independence Bowl on Thanksgiving Day. Louisiana Tech went just 1-2 over its last three games though and I think it'll have difficulty with this team from the Power 5 Conference. Yes Louisiana Tech beat UTSA 41-27 in its finale, but in the two losses previous it scored a total of 24 points. Overall the Bulldogs average 34 PPG and allow 23.7. 

The pick: The Hurricanes lost their final 27-17 to Duke. Five of their six losses though have been by seven points or less. Overall Miami averages 27.8 PPG and it allows just 20.8. Louisiana Tech has had considerably more sucess in the Bowl Season than the Hurricanes over the last ten years, but I think the Bulldog's get overwhelmed on the defensive end from this hungry 6-6 Miami Florida team. I'm laying the points.

10* BLOWOUT on Miami Florida.

The set-up: The 7-5 BYU Cougars are in Hawaii to take on the 9-5 Warriors and in my opinion, this one has "shootout" written all over it. The Rainbow Warriors were 6-2 in Aloha Stadium this year, including victories over Arizona and Oregon State. Hawaii eventually fell 31-10 to Boise State in the Championship Game, but I think that Cole McDonald and company will bounce back here with so much time off to prepare. McDonald finished with 3,642 yards and 29 TD's this season. Overall the Warriors average 33.6 PPG, while allowing 31.7. BYU won five straight before a listless 13-3 loss at SDSU. Like Hawaii though, I think the extra time off to prepare for this one will be beneficial to the offense, which averaged 39.8 PPG during the five-game win streak. Overall the Cougars average 28 points and allow 24.4 per game. 

The pick: Note as well that BYU has seen the total go over the number in four of six on the road this year, while Hawaii has seen the total soar above the posted number in three of four home games already this season when the total in the contest is set between 61 and 70 points. I believe the only game in town tonight will feature a lot of offense, and not much defense. Play the over.

10* play on the OVER BYU/Hawaii.

The set-up: Marshall finished 8-4 overall, including 2-2 in non-conference play. Its two win were over Ohio (33-31) and VMI, while it lost to Boise State (14-7) and Cincinnati (42-17.) Marshall won this bowl 38-20 last year, but I think it takes a step back here. Overall the Herd average 24.8 PPG and allow 23.1. 

The pick: UCF lost 27-24 to Cincinnati, but it finished 9-3 overall. The Knights average a whopping 43 PPG, while conceding just 22.8. Marshall has struggled in this spot for bettors as well, both over the long and short-term, going just 2-4 ATS in its last six after a win by six points or less, including only 1-2 ATS this year. Conversely, UCF has been money in the bank in this position by going 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, including 2-1 ATS this season. I think Marshall gets smoked on both sides of the ball from start to finish. Lay the points.

10* BLOWOUT on UCF.

The set-up: UAB is 9-4 and App State is 12-1. The Mountaineers are big favorites in this one. In fact, a little too big in my estimation. App State has an explosive offense, but UAB allows only 20.8 PPG. And that's bad new for App State' QB Zac Thomas in my opinion. Thomas finished with a sharp 26:6 TD:INT, but I believe the extra time off will throw a predictable "monkey wrench" into his chemistry.

The pick: The Blazers use two QB's in Tyler Johnson II and Dylan Hopkins and they do indeed benefit from a defense which ranks 13th in the nation vs. the pass and 14th vs. the run. Also note that UAB is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five off a loss vs. a conference rival, including 2-0 ATS this season, while App State is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after covering the spread in four out of its last five games. No outright, but definitely closer than expected. Grab the points.

8* play on UAB.

The set-up: Washington is 7-5 and Boise State is 12-1. Head coach Chris Peterson has made it known that he'll be leaving Washington after this game and it's only fitting that he gets to try and beat his former team the Broncos. Washington topped WSU 31-13 in the Apple Cup, while Boise State got the better of Hawaii 31-10 in the MWC championship game. Washington is led by QB Jacob Eason, while Boise State is led by QB Jaylon Henderson. The Broncos allow 20.6 PPG, while the Huskies allow 20.4. 

The pick: I'll point out though that the Huskies have performed well in this spot for bettors, going 3-0 ATS in all non-conference games. Conversely, this is a position in which Boise State has struggled in for bettors, going just 1-2 ATS in non-conference games this season and 0-3 ATS in its last three after scoring 31 points or more in four straight games. The Huskies come from the tougher confernce and I think that Peterson will have his troops prepared to lay the hammer down. Lay the points.

8* play on Washington.