The set-up: I think the 2-2 Bulls come to town complacent after their big upset win over Temple last week. This is the first conference game for both teams and I believe the Bulls stumble on the road. The RedHawks won’t be lacking for motivation here as they’re 1-3. A closer look at Miami-Ohio’s win/loss record though sees that it’s played the much tougher competition, including a humbling 76-5 loss to Ohio State last time out. Miami Ohio also plays with revenge here after falling 51-42 at Buffalo last season. 

The pick: Note though that the home team has covered in four of the last five games in this series. Buffalo’ QB Matt Myers was only 9 of 15 with no TD’s last week and was picked off once. The Bulls got 217 yards rushing and held Temple to only 31. But I like Miami Ohio’ QB Brett Gabbert at home here as he looks to bounce back after last week’s embarrassment. Gabbert still has 529 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s despite last week’s blowout setback. Miami has covered in eight of its last nine MAC games and in four of its last five at home. Look for the “hungrier” team to get the job done this afternoon.

8* play on Miami Ohio.

The set-up: Both teams have been playing well. Both teams are led by dynamic  QB’s. ASU is led by Jayden Daniels, while Cal is led by Chase Garbers. Daniels has looked poised early, but he’s still for the most part untested and that definitely changes tonight. Note that in the game vs. Michigan State, Daniels was only 15 of 26 for 140 yards and no TD’s in the 10-7 win. Cal sits 61st in the country in defense, allowing 366.5 YPG. The Bears’ secondary has given up just two passing TD’s as well through four games. 

The pick: Garbers has a 7:2 TD:INT thus far. He’s backed up by two competent RB’s in Christopher Brown Jr. and Marcel Dancy, who will keep the Sun Devils honest with Garbers (both have two rushing TD’s so far this season.) I give Cal the slight edge in all three phases and combined with the home field advantage, I’m going to confidently lay the points and expect a solid cover.

10* PAC-12 BEST OF THE BEST on California.

The set-up: This is an early key AAC West division battle and as such, I think we’re going to see a very competitive affair. Note that the Midshipmen lead the all time series 3-1, including last year’s 22-21 upset victory over the Tigers. Navy likes to slow the game down when on offense, which works against this fast-paced Memphis offense. Keep your eyes on Navy QB Malcolm Perry, who also leads the team in rushing yards and TD’s this year. Memphis has been fantastic early defensively, but I think that over time that the visitors attack will wear down the home side front. 

The pick: The Tigers’ numbers are skewed in my opinion due to the level of competition. After a poor offensive showing to open the year vs. Ole Miss, the Tigers put up 55 vs. FCS opponent Southern, while them going on to also beat South Alabama by 42 points. Note that Tigers’ QB Brady White has three TD’s and an three INT’s thus far. Last year it was a one point victory f and the year before that it was a three-point win for the Tigers. I’m grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Navy.

The set-up: Ball State is 1-2, most recently coming off a 41-31 loss to FAU. The Cardinals haven’t had any issues putting points on the board, but Ball State is unable to stop anyone. NC State won’t be lacking for motivation here as it comes in off an upset 44-72 loss at WVU. It was a bit of a shock considering how well NC State looked against ECU (34-6 win) and Western Carolina (41-0.) The Cardinals have gotten great production from QB Drew Pitt, with 11 TD’s and just three INT’s, but now Ball State faces its stiffest defensive competition to date. 

The pick: With the backing of the home crowd and playing with a chip on their shoulder, I definitely think that from a situational stand point, the Wolf Pack are the correct call here today. But note as well that Ball State is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as a road dog, while NC State is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after a loss ATS. Lay the points, expect a rout.

8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on NC State.

The set-up: It’s the annual Rio Grande Rivalry and I’m expecting some offensive fireworks. The Lobos are 40-14-3 at home against NMSU in Albuquerque. But note that the Aggies have won two of the last three in this series. With neither side lacking for confidence or motivation, this one definitely has more the feel of a wide open “shootout,” than a lower-scoring “chess match.” New Mexico State is led by Tevaka Tuioti, who was 6 for 13 for 132 yards vs. Notre Dame, and who is a legitimate dual threat QB. 

The pick: These two teams hate each other and I believe that extra factor is going to help in contributing to a higher-scoring shootout. Note as well though that New Mexico State has seen the total go over the number in six of its last eight after a loss by 17 points or more, while New Mexico has seen the total soar over in four of its last five as a home favorite of seven points or less. This number is a shade low.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the OVER New Mexico State/New Mexico.

The set-up: Temple comes in content in my opinion after its upset victory over Maryland and a 2-0 start to the year. Temple’ QB Anthony Russo has 686 yards, seven TD’s and two INT’s. Overall the Owl are averaging 561 yards of offense and 38 PPG this year. The Bulls though are a tough defense and I think the unit keeps the team in this game late. Buffalo is looking to bounce back after a 35-17 loss to Liberty last time out. Bulls’ QB Matt Myers has 481 yards, five TD’s and an INT, while Kevin Marks has 247 yards rushing. Overall Buffalo averages 385.3 yards and 22.7 PPG. 

The pick: Both of Temple’s wins have come at home and I have a hard time laying so many points on its first true road game of the season (despite how good its looked to his point). Conversely, both of Buffalo’s losses have come on the road. I’m banking on a competitive battle and will therefore be grabbing the ample points in this one.

8* PLAYBOOK on Buffalo

The set-up: I’m not predicting an outright upset. I just think that Ohio State will take the foot off the gas in the second half as it plays out the final game of the non-conference schedule. Miami Ohio lost to Iowa 38-14, beat Tennessee Tech 48-17 and then fell to Cincinnati 35-13. Who could fault the Buckeyes for looking past their lowly opponent after starting the year 3-0, with a 45-21 win over FAU, a 42-0 victory over Cincinnati and a 51-10 effort over Indiana last week. 

The pick: Justin Fields clearly has the advantage over Miami’s Brett Gabbert, but as mentioned, this is a situational play more than anything else. The RedHawks have plenty to work on in this game which they know they’re going to lose, while Ohio State can simply “go through the motions” and still get the job done before a difficult upcoming Big Ten schedule. I’m grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio 

The set-up: While likely not too high-scoring, I still think that MSU’s offense will have more than enough in the tank to distance itself from its lowly counterpart today. And note that clearly the Spartans won’t be taking anything for granted here as the Wildcats have taken three straight in the series and four of the last five dating to 2012. Michigan State is also out to atone for its inexplicable setback at home to Arizona State. MSU’ QB Brian Lewerke looked out of sorts last week, but he and RB Elijah Collins have dominated this series in the past and I expect that trend to continues here. Collins in particular already has 281 yards rushing and he had a TD last week as well. 

The pick: Northwestern has been terrible against the run, allowing 175.33 yards per game. Wildcats’ No. 1 QB TJ Green went down with injury in Week 1 and ever since then the Northwestern offense has been stuck in neutral with Hunter Johnson running the show (Wildcats are the only team in the Big Ten average ring fewer than five yards per play.) I expect a lot from the Michigan State defense and I expect nothing from the Wildcats offense. Look for Lewerke to take advantage and lay the points.

8* play on Michigan State.

The set-up: Both teams come in off victories, but neither looked very impressive. The Golden Bears had a 20-0 lead over UNT, only to hold on for the 23-17 victory, while Ole Miss posted an uninspiring 40-29 victory over FCS Southeastern Louisiana. Cal posted a 129 yards of offense in the first quarter last week, but then only 150 yards over the final three combined. Cal QB Chase Garbers was just nine of 22 and he was running for his life most of the time. 

The pick: Ole Miss has been aggressive on the defensive side of the ball, posting 27 tackles for a loss through three games, which is most in the SEC. Ole Miss has talent on the offensive side of the ball as well and scheduling is in its favor, as a 9 AM PST contest for a West Coast team which has a 1,700 mile trip before hand is never an easy task. Also note that the Bears finishing last week’s game without LB’s Chinedu Udeogu, Cameron Goode and Tevin Paul because of injury. The Grove is going to be electric in what is essentially a “must win” for the home side.

8* play on Ole Miss.

The set-up: Outright victory? Of course not. But after jumping out to an early insurmountable lead, I think the Crimson Tide takes the foot off the gas in the second half and I look for the lowly Southern Miss Golden Eagles to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Last week Alabama destroyed USC 47-23, with QB Tua Tagovailoa going for a career-high 444 passing yards. Southern Miss won’t be lacking for motivation here as it enters off a 47-42 road win over Troy. 

The pick: Golden Eagles’ QB Jack Abraham had 463 passing yards and two TD’s in last week’s win. Abraham leads the Conference USA in passing and he’ll be given the green light early and often this afternoon. I believe he’s a difference maker. Additionally note that Southern Miss is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non conference road games as an underdog of 35 points or more. Grab the points.

8* play on the Southern Miss

The set-up: USC is coming off a surprising Week 3 loss at BYU and I look for it to risk life and limb today as it tries to score the outright upset. Utah owns one of the best defenses in the country, but it does struggle against “air raid” offenses like Washington State and these very USC Trojans. USC held BYU to just 3.3 YPC, so containing mobile Utah QB Tyler Huntley is definitely possible. 

The pick: USC QB Kedon Slovis looked great in Week 2 with 377 yards and three TD’s, but last week he had three INT’s. Utah has struggled in this arena in the past and I believe the circumstances are working against it here as well. USC has the offensive firepower to easily hang with the Utes and I think that’ll be more than enough to get the job done here, with a possible outright in the cards as well. That said, grab the points.

10* on USC

The set-up: Both teams come in undefeated. Boise State is the better team and it has the advantage, but the Falcons won’t be going down without a fight today. I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I do believe that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. The only way to beat these Boise State Broncos is by keeping them off the field! And that’s exactly what Air Force is designed to do as it looks to control the tempo of a contest with its strong run game, behind Tavin Birdow and Kadin Remsberg (note that the Falcons are second in the country in rushing with 353.5 YPG on the ground.) 

The pick: Boise State will be relentless in its attack as well with QB Hank Bachmeier, but I believe the Falcons’ improved defensive play, combined with their aggressive “run first” offensive attack will indeed keep this contest competitive until the final moments. Additionally note that AF is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as a dog, while Boise State is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 as a home favorite. I’m grabbing the points.

8* on Air Force.

The set-up: FIU was projected by many to contend for the Conference USA East Division title, but it’s dropped its first two games, which includes an upset setback to WKU at home to start C-USA play. The Golden Panthers earned their first win last week though vs. FCS New Hampshire last week (30-17), so they do come in with something to build off. Louisiana Tech has looked better than FIU, but not by much. It opened with a 45-14 loss at Texas, and then followed it up with a 20-14 win over FCS Grambling. It then beat Bowling Green 35-7 last week. FIU starting QB James Morgan is likely out for this one with an ankle injury, but back up Kaylan Wiggins looked impressive last week with 187 rushing yards on 14 carries, while also going 12 of 18 passing for 127 yards in the win. The Golden Panthers also have three quality backs in D’Vonte Prie, Napoleon Maxwell and Anthony Jones. 

The pick: The Bulldogs have a dynamic QB in J’Mar Smith, but FIU has a talented defense as well with LB Sage Lewis leading the way with 22 total tackles this year, while also posting an INT last week. Yes FIU has many question marks, but it has the talent to keep this one close down the stretch in my opinion. Grab the ample points.

8* play on FIU

The set-up: It’s the AAC Opener for both teams and I’m expecting a shootout. Houston is also looking to bounce back from a loss last week. Coach Dana Holgorsen likes to push the pace with an up-tempo air-raid blitz and his counterpart Wilie Fritz, who likes to mix things up, is going to have to match pace in my opinion. Houston has faced two decent teams in Oklahoma and Washington to open the season and QB D’Eriq King has been relatively quiet to this point. But the versatile back is poised for a monster game here in my opinion, as remember that the Cougars had the No. 16 passing offense in the nation last year. Tulane’s pass defense has been decent, but I look for King and company to be committed to the pass today from start to finish.

The pick: Tulane has gotten great play from QB Justin McMillan as well, who has 424 yards and two TD’s through the air and a team-high 154 yards and three TD’s on the ground as well. Keep your eyes on Green Wave receiver Darnell Mooney, who has 12 catches for 183 yards and a TD in the past three games. So far the Cougars’ defense hasn’t fared so well (stiff competition as noted above), but Tulane won’t be rolling over here either as it tries to take advantage of some big holes on the Houston defense. I expect a couple of defensive TD’s along the way as this total flies over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Houston/Tulane.

The set-up: TCU comes out of its bye week and I look for it to match pace with the home side. The Horned Frogs won’t be taking anything for granted after having lost three of their last four on the road dating to last year. TCU is 1-0 after beating up on Arkansas-Pine Bluff. So far the Horned Frogs have averaged 200 yards per game and allowed just seven points. But clearly TCU is in for a much stiffer test this evening. 

The pick: Purdue has won four of its last five home games. The Boilermakers have gotten 932 yards and nine TD’s from QB Elijah Sindelar and I look for the senior QB to open up the playbook tonight as well. He’ll have to, as note that Purdue is allowing 29 points and 447.5 YPG on the defensive side of things. TCU comes in rested and focused and knows it can’t rest on its heels if it has any hopes at an upset. Considering all of the above factors, I definitely feel this number is a little low.

10* totals play on OVER TCU/Purdue.

The set-up: Arizona State upset MSU last year and while I’m not calling for a repeat on Saturday afternoon, I do definitely think that the conditions are right for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. ASU admittedly faces a better team this year, but Herm Edwards’ side won’t be lacking for motivation or confidence. ASU QB Jayden Daniels had a 300 yard passing game last weekend. MSU is better against the run than the pass, so that plays into Daniels favor on Saturday. 

The pick: The Spartans rely heavily on their run game with Elijah Collins leading the charge, but QB Brian Lewerke still has a few question marks surrounding him in my opinion after a poor 2018 showing. With conference play starting next week, this also sets up as a natural “look ahead” spot for MSU. No outright, but closer than expected.

10* play on Arizona State.

The set-up: WKU is just 1-1 this year, but its been competitive in each contest. In Week 1 the Hilltoppers fell to Central Arkansas by a score of 35-28, before then rebounding with a solid 20-14 victory over FIU last weekend. Louisville has a 1-1 mark as well, falling 35-17 to Notre Dame, before then waxing EKU 42-0 last weekend. 

The pick: The trends DO NOT favor the favorite in this one though, as note that the Cardinals are a terrible 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral site affairs. WKU on the other hand is 27-17 ATS the last two years after holding its previous opponent to 14 points or less. Western Kentucky QB Steven Duncan matches Louisville QB Jawon Pass in my opinion and that means that I’m grabbing up the points.

8* play on WKU.

The set-up: NC State has outscored its first two opponents 75-6, including last week’s opponent Western Carolina 41-0. WVU won’t be lacking for motivation today though. The Mountaineers are 1-1, but they’ve looked terrible in both games. WVU narrowly defeated James Madison in Week 1, before then getting destroyed 38-7 by Missouri last weekend. WVU heads into Big 12 play next weekend, making this contest more crucial than ever. NC State Matt McKay hasn’t been challenged yet this season, but I believe that changes this afternoon. 

The pick: NC State had plenty of question marks heading into the season and while its first year QB and RB have looked solid to this point, clearly hitting the road to take on this motivated Power 5 opponent is an entirely different “animal.” In what I expect to be a very competitive battle, I’m grabbing the points.

8* play on West Virginia.

The set-up: Last weekend the Terps annihilated then No. 21 Syracuse 63-20 as an underdog and I believe it’s in line for a classic “letdown” here. Temple destroyed FCS Bucknell 56-12 in its opener, and then enjoyed last weekend off as its bye. Fresh and focused, I think the home side will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. And if recent history is any precedence, then the home side has to be loving its chances today, as note that in last year’s matchup at College Park, the Owls emerged with a 35-14 victory. 

The pick: Temple QB Anthony Russo started on the road vs. the Terps last year and was 15 of 25 for 228 yards, one TD and an INT. Maryland has plenty of offensive talent, especially at the QB position with Josh Jackson, but the overall conditions favor the hungry and rested home side in my opinion. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

8* play on Temple.

The set-up: It’s the Washington State Cougars vs. the Houston Cougars and if you like offense, then this game is for you! WSU is ranked No. 20 after starting 2-0 and averaging 58.8 PPG. Houston simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep up in my opinion. Note that WSU QB Anthony Gordon already has 884 yards and nine TD’s this season. Houston is 1-1, losing to Oklahoma in its opener, before beating Prairie View 37-17. 

The pick: Nine different players caught a pass for WSU last week. Keep your eyes on WSU RB Max Borghi as well, who is averaging 95 all purpose yards per game. D’Eriq King is a big time talent for the Cougars, but he lacks the talent around him to keep up down the stretch. Look for Gordon to keep up the blistering pace with his biggest game of the season. 

10* play on Washington State.

The set-up: UNC comes in quietly confident after starting the year 2-0 and getting past Coastal rival Miami last week. Wake is 2-0 as well after wins over Utah State and Rice. UNC has an extremely dynamic QB in Sam Howell and a competent back in Javonte Williams, who has 178 yards over two games. 

The pick: The Demon Deacons have been terrible vs. the past as well, currently ranked 123rd nationally. Also note that Wake’s star RB Cade Carney is once again listed as questionable for this game after missing last week as well. Jamie Newman has been great at QB as well for Wake, but his team’s weakness against the pass on the defensive side is the difference maker in my opinion. With FCS Elon up next, I think the home side gets caught “looking ahead” as well. Grab the points.

8* play on UNC.

The set-up: I’m making a play on both the side and the total in this game. If you’ve bought this package, then you know that I’m on the Tar Heels with the points here. After starting the year 2-0, I think that Wake is going to take a step back here. The Demon Deacons have a “cream puff” next weekend vs. Elon, before a gruelling upcoming schedule vs. Boston College, Louisville, Florida State and NC State. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!”

The pick: UNC has been better than advertised at 2-0 and I expect the visitors to once again lean heavily on RB Javonte Williams, who so far has 178 yards over two games. Additionally note that UNC has seen the total go under in its last five games after a win by six points or less in two straight games. This number is a shade high.

10* play on the under UNC/Wake.

The set-up: Forget the points in this one in my opinion, as I’m going to lay the reasonable mid-sized price on the home side to win this game straight up. Both BYU and Tennessee lost in Week 1, which makes home field advantage crucial here in my opinion. The Vols enter off a humbling loss to Georgia State this past weekend and suffice it to say, I think that the home side risks life and limb to redeem itself this time around. BYU looked horrible as well in its 30-12 home loss to Utah (QB Zach Wilson threw two INT’s in the loss.) 

The pick: Tennessee QB Jarrett Guarantano had over 300 yards and a pair of scores in last week’s loss to the Panthers and I think he’ll be a difference maker here. The Vols catch a break facing BYU’s offense this weekend as well. Expect Tennessee to get back on track and to punch its first victory into the win column once it’s all said and done.

Tennessee Moneyline 7* play

The set-up: SDSU managed a win over FCS opponent Weber State last week, but it was anything but dominant. UCLA comes in off a poor performance vs. Cincinnati, but I think that the Bruins bounce back in friendly confines. UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson struggled last week vs. the Bearcats, but I expect him to bounce back in friendly confines. That said, UCLA’s defense was a strength in the 24-14 setback. 

The pick: And that doesn’t bode well for SDSU QB Ryan Agnew, who last week completed only 16 passes for 108 yards. The Aztecs only managed 130 yards rushing last week as well. The Aztecs have history against them as well, as they’re 0-21-1 vs. the Bruins lifetime, getting outscored 695-241 in the process. I like Chip Kelly to settle down his troops and to deliver the goods at home. Lay the points.

UCLA 10* play

The set-up: No spoilers here, as I look for Iowa to lay the hammer down from start to finish. McClane Carter had 340 passing yards and two TD’s in Rutgers beatdown win over UMass, but clearly now the Scarlet Knights face an entirely different animal in the Hawkeyes. Also note that Carter was in fact picked off three times by the Minutemen. The Scarlet Knights looked good defensively in holding UMass to 14 points, but once again, clearly they’re going to have their hands full with this top tier opponent and in this difficult road venue. 

The pick: Iowa QB Nate Stanley was 21 of 30 for 252 yards and three TD’s and no picks last week. He was complimented by RB Mekhi Sargent, who also had four catches for 65 yards (overall the Hawkeyes had 213 yards rushing.) I think Rutgers takes a step back after last week’s “cream puff.” Lay the points.

Iowa 8* play

The set-up: This sets up as a classic “trap” for the Panthers. Pittsburgh lost to Virginia last weekend and now it faces a tough Ohio team at home, before heading for an in-state rivalry vs. Penn State. I believe the dangerous Bobcats are going to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Ohio QB Nathan Rourke had a good showing for Rhode Island last week and overall the Bobcats rushed for 278 yards last week. The Panthers looked decent defensively last week, but it averaged only 2.6 yards per rushing attempt while on offense (note that Pitt QB Kenny Pickett was just 21 of 41 for 185 yards, one TD and two INT’s. 

The pick: The Panthers are still reeling from last week’s pathetic performance and they’re also already worried and looking ahead to next week. Outright win? Possible, but in the end I’ll recommend to grab as many points as you can.

Ohio Bobcats 6* play

The set-up: Clearly I’m not calling for an outright victory, but for a number of different reasons I do indeed feel that this spread is too large for the Demon Deacons to cover under the Friday Night lights. Wake Forest came from behind to knock off Utah State 38-35 last weekend and I think it gets caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent today. Rice lost 14-7 to Army, but the Owls were impressive from start to finish and I think they carry that momentum over here. 

The pick: Wake Forest had 579 yards last week, but they ran 58 times and threw 47. That translates into only 5.51 yards per play, which ranked 75th in the country. Army ran for 231 yards vs. Rice, but the Owls held the vaunted Black Knights to just 4.1 yards per attempt, the third best in the country of the 26 FBS defensive units which gave up more than 200 yards on the ground last week. The Owls looked bad offensively last week, but Army is stout. Note that Wake Forest allowed 596 total yards of offense to Utah State, including 416 through the air. I’m grabbing the points.

Rice 10* play

The set-up: Big changes occurred for both teams in the off-season. Kyler Murray is gone from Oklahoma, and Ed Oliver has left for Houston. Both teams have new coaching staff as well. It’s interesting to note that when these two teams last battled, it was UH which scored the upset to open the 2016 season. While I’m not calling for the upset here, I do think that the stage is set for a more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. The Sooners have been terrible defensively for years, but their offense has masked its inefficiencies. Alex Grinch is the new defensive coordinator for Oklahoma, but I still think the Sooners will struggle on that side of the ball this season. 

The pick: D’Eriq King is back for the Cougars after suffering an early injury last year and he has top RB Patrick Carr back as well (also top WR’s in Courtney Lark, Keith Corbin and Marquez Stevenson.) OU’s defense has been a disaster and while QB Jalen Hurts, a transfer from Alabama should make the offense one of the best in the nation again, the question marks defensively are the difference maker for me in the end. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* COACH’S CORNER on Houston.

The set-up: No outright upset, but I think it’ll be much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Miami Ohio finished 6-6 SU last year, while the Hawkeyes were 9-4. Miami Ohio though finished strong and it’s got a versatile offense which averaged 202 passing yards and 202 rushing yards per game (in eight conference games.) The Hawkeyes averaged 32.7 PPG vs. conference foes, while conceding only 20.6. 

The pick: Miami Ohio though is a sharp 6-2 ATS in its last eight as an underdog, while Iowa is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight non-conference home games as a favorite of 21 points or more. This spread is a little large, grab the points.

Miami (OH) 8* play

The set-up: The Orange won’t be taking anything for granted in Week 1 after finishing 10-3 last year (6-2 in the ACC). Syracuse was invited the Camping World Bowl where it defeated WVU 34-18. The Flames finished 6-6 in 2018 and they still weren’t invited to go Bowling. Clearly Liberty will be out to score an early upset here after getting snubbed last season. 

The pick: The Orange were dominant defensively last year, but the unit has suffered turnover in the offseason. Syracuse has to deal with Maryland before a date vs. the Tigers, so I expect it to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully as a higher-scoring shootout (Note as well that the Orange have seen the total fly over the number in four of their last five as a road favorite.) This number is a little low.

Syracuse/Liberty OVER 10* play

The set-up: There’s no “warm ups” for these two teams as their ACC schedule kicks off in Week 1. BC will then face three straight teams which failed to make a bowl berth last year, so the “look ahead” angle definitely comes into play here for the home side in my opinion. The Hokies have ODU and Furman up next and I believe they come to play today. VT’s offense will have some work to do to catch up to its defense. 

The pick: And that’s bad news for BC’s offensive line, which is the biggest question mark heading into this season. The Eagles defense is also breaking in seven new starters. That doesn’t bode well for a team which had difficulties last year controlling the clock. VT has problems on the offensive side of things, but I believe it’s defense controls this game and I look for it to be the deciding factor in the final outcome. Lay the points.

Virginia Tech 10* play

The set-up: North Carolina welcomes back Mack Brown as head coach as he’ll look to re-ignite his former program. UNC turns to QB Sam Howell, while USC goes with Jake Bentley. This is a neutral site game, which levels the playing field somewhat. South Carolina has the advantage at QB, but otherwise I feel that UNC matches up well with the Gamecocks across the board. 

The pick: The Tar Heels have offensive weapons at RB and at WR and I think Howell can match pace with his veteran counterpart. Note as well that South Carolina is just 4-5 ATS in its last non-conference games, while UNC is interestingly 6-2 ATS in its last eight vs. the SEC. I’m banking on Brown’s guidance to keep this one closer than expected. Grab the points.

UNC 10* play

The set-up: I’m not predicting an outright upset today, but I do think that the writing is on the wall and much more competitive battle is in the cards between these in-state rivals. ECU sports a new coach in Mike Houston and he’ll look to take advantage of an NC State team which has lost several key players from last year’s team, including QB Ryan Finley (it’s interesting to note, that despite winning this game last year, the Pirates have won three of the last four in the series.) ECU hands the ball to Holton Ahlers, who had 1,785 yards and 12 TD’s in ten games for the Pirates last year (also had 592 rushing yards and another six TD’s on the ground.) ECU also has two veteran backs in Hussein Howe and Darius Pinnix. NC State on the other hand is starting a red shirt sophomore at QB today in Matt McKay. Last year he was 7 of 8 for 87 yards in six games (NC State also features all new RB’s.) 

The pick: The Pirates’ experience in the skill positions, especially at the QB spot make the visitors and the points the correct call in my opinion; grab the points!

East Carolina 9* play

The set-up: I think the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards in this one. The Buffs have a new head coach in Mel Tucker and he has 11 returning starters, including senior QB Steven Montez to build a foundation upon. Colorado State only had three victories last year and I look for the home side to take advantage of this favorable season opening matchup. 

The pick: Last year the Rams had one of the Nation’s worst defensive units, allowing 451.5 YPG and 36.8 PPG. Colorado has won four straight in this series (by an average margin of 21.5 points). Collin Hill is a talented QB, but he’s in over his head here in my opinion vs. the re-worked Buffs defense. I’m expecting a complete rout from start to finish. Lay the points.

Colorado 9* play

The set-up: I believe these non-conference opponents open up the playbook on Friday night and I expect this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. Purdue went 6-7 in 2018, while Nevada was 8-5. But the Boilermakers overcame an 0-3 start to win six of their final nine games. The Wolfpack also started slowly by going 3-3, but they went 4-2 the rest of the way. 

The pick: Both teams return plenty of starters from last season and each will clearly be looking to “hit the ground running” in 2019 after their respective slow starts last year. In the end Nevada scored 25 or more points in nine of its 13 games, while Purdue would average just under 30 PPG last season. For all the situational reasons listed above, play the over.

Purdue/Nevada OVER 10* play

The set-up: Utah State was 11-2 in 2018. A big difference between this year and last for Utah State though is that head coach Matt Wells bolted for the Texas Tech job, meaning that Gary Andersen will be tasked to duplicate that mark. The Demon Deacons were just 7-6 overall last year, but they started slowly and closed strong. And that included two big victories right at the end, smashing Duke 59-7 in its regular season finale, before then holding on for a 37-34 victory over Memphis in the Birmingham Bowl. Utah State benefits from having Jordan Love back at QB, but he now leads a mostly unproven unit moving forward. Wake has some issues on the defensive side, but it catches a break here in Week 1. Wake Forest is led by Jamie Newman and he has plenty of weapons at his disposal tonight as well. 

The pick: This is a “FIRST HALF” “money line” selection. I think Wake is going to find a way to get the job done in the first half. The Demon Deacons’ core group remains on both sides of the ball and I believe that’s going to translate into early success on the field of play. 

Wake Forest (vs. Utah St) 1st Half Moneyline 10* play

The set-up: The Utes are favored to win the Pac-12 Championship tho shear, with 15 returning starters from last years team. The Utes get the job done with a suffocating defense which has all four defensive linemen returning from a rushing defense which led the conference with just 1003 YPG. The Utes also have an experienced offense, with QB Tyler Huntley back under center, along with RB Zack Moss. 

The pick: BYU had a 20-point third-quarter lead over Utah a year ago, but it wound up losing 35-27 in the end. The Cougars have lost eight in a row in this series. BYU is once again led by QB Zach Wilson. The secondary for the Cougars took a hit with both Chris Wilcox and Troy Warner injured in camp. BYU has to keep Utah honest, so look for the home side to try and establish its run game throughout. When you add it all up, this one has “under” written all over it.

Utah/BYU UNDER 10* play

The set-up: Arizona State won’t be looking past Kent State here with what is expected to be a “wide open” Pac 12 South. Utah is the fav, but the Sun Devils will be pushing the pace from start to finish after watching Arizona blow its opener in Hawaii last weekend. Arizona actually finished second in the south last year, 7-6 overall and 5-4 in conference action. ASU has a tough matchup at No 18 Michigan State in Week 3, making this non-conference contest vs. the lowly Flashes that much more important. 

The pick: Kent State has zero bowl wins in its 99 year history. The Flashes were 1-7 in MAC action and 2-10 overall. Over the last six year they haven’t had a better record than 4-8. Ken State is led by Woody Barrett, who is a true dual threat. However, the tandem of QB Jayden Daniels and RB Eno Benjamin is going to prove to be too much for this porous Kent State defense to handle today in my opinion. Lay the points and expect a complete blowout.

Arizona St 10* play

The set-up: Outright upset? It’s not out of the realm of possibility at all in my opinion. After finishing 4-17 in 2017, the Gators went 10-3 in Dan Mullen’s first year as head coach. That included a win over Michigan in the Peach Bowl. While QB Feleipe Franks is back under center for Florida, the big question mark for the Gators (and I think it’s significant in Week 1), is that there are four new starters on the offensive line. 

The pick: Miami was just 7-6 last year. Manny Diaz is now the head coach for the Hurricanes and he went out and grabbed a top play-caller in Dan Enos. Jarren Williams beat out N’Kosi Perry and Tate Martell for the starting QB position for the home side. Williams had two of the ACC’s top receivers in Coral Gables and buffalo transfer KJ Osborn. The uncertain up front for Florida makes the Hurricanes the correct call in Week 1 in my opinion. Grab the points.

Miami Florida 10* play

The set-up: I won with Alabama last year and I think the Tide are going to roll again this season as well. This is the fourth straight year these teams have faced each other in the big game. Last year the Tide won 24-6. Clemson does come in off a nice 30-3 win over the Irish last Saturday, but the step up in competition on both sides of the ball will prove to be too much again for the Tigers again in my estimation. Clemson freshman QB Trevor Lawrence looked solid with 327 yards passing, three TD’s and no INT’s. The Tigers are no slouches defensively either, ranked fifth in allowing just 12.9 PPG. The Tide pulled away for a tougher than expected 45-34 win over Oklahoma last weekend. QB Tua Tagovailoa had 318 yards passing and four TD’s. The Tide dominate on both sides of the ball though, ranked second with 47.7 PPG and 12th in yards allowed per game. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Clemson is just 1-4 ATS this year in non-conference games, while Alabama is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after falling to cover the spread in two of its last three games. This has and likely always will be a “bad matchup” for Clemson. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Two teams that are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and up and down the line collide in the Sugar Bowl in Atlanta on Tuesday night and I’m expecting a war until the final moments. Georgia comes into this one still hung over and miserable after its crushing defeat in the SEC Championship game to Alabama. This is a consolation prize for the Bulldogs, while Texas will be looking to make the most of this moment, having not been in a New Year’s Six bowl game since 2014. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up great for the underdogs in my opinion (note that Texas head coach Tom Herman is 12-2-1 ATS as an underdog, with nine outright victories.) 

The pick: take it for what you will as well, but Georgia is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after a two weeks or more layoff and as a ten points or more favorite, while Texas is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine after a SU loss and 5-2 ATS in its last seven neutral site games. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: UCF enters at 12-0 and while it may leave here with a blemish on its record, I expect the Golden Knights to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Despite losing starting QB McKenzie Milton to injury, UCF would still go on to post a two TD win over Memphis. LSU comes in off a deflating loss to Texas A&M in its latest outing. In fact, the Tigers would play through seven OT’s,but still come up short vs. the Aggies. Players could barely stand by the end of the game they were so exhausted. 

The pick: The Knights looked just fine with Darriel Mack under center in their win over Memphis, throwing for 348 yards and two TD’s. Take it for what you will as well, but the Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last six as an underdog, while LSU is just 2-4 ATS as a favorite this year. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Two teams with a ton of momentum collide in the Gator Bowl from Jacksonville Florida on Monday night and in my opinion, points are going to be plentiful. NC State enters on a three-game win streak over Louisville, UNC and ECU, while Texas A&M also posted three straight wins to end the year over Ole Miss, UAB and LSU. NC State will be leaning heavily on QB Ryan Finley here, and he has 3,789 passing yards along with 24 TD’s. The Aggies weakness on defense is against the pass, allowing 262.7 YPG. Clearly Finley will be given the “green light” to air it out from start to finish. The Aggies are also down several defenders, including safety Donovan Wilson. The Aggies feature a potent offensive attack as well, featuring dynamic back Trayveon Williams, who had 1,524 rushing yards and 15 major scores.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but NC State has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine non-conference road games as an underdog in the 2.5 to 9.5 points range. This one has “shootout” written all over it, play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: Missouri was 8-4 in regular season play, but just 4-4 in SEC action. Oklahoma State squeaked into the Bowls with a 6-6 regular season record, including going 3-6 in the Big 12. Overall the Tigers are averaging 36.9 PPG and they’re allowing 24.4. Missouri QB Drew Lock finished with 3,125 passing yards and a 25:8 TD/INT. Oklahoma State took the foot off the gas in its final game after securing bowl eligibility in its second to last game of the season in an impressive 45-41 win over WVU. QB Taylor Cornelius had 3,642 passing yards and a 28:11 TD/INT.

The pick: The Cowboys’ offense is the difference maker for me in this one though. Oklahoma State averages just under 500 total yards per game and 38.4 points. Overall they’re allowing 32.4, but with extra time off to prepare, I definitely expect Oklahoma State to keep this one competitive. Take it for what you will as well, but OKS is 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games, while Missouri is only 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory. Grab the points.

10* BOWL GAME OF YEAR

The set-up: Stanford comes in on top form having won three straight. Pittsburgh comes in a bit deflated in my opinion though after falling to Clemson in the ACC Championship. Stanford’s final win of the year came over California. Pittsburgh relies on a strong run game and defense. Stanford does as well, but an injury to star RB Bryce Love shifted the focus of the offense this year to QB KJ Costello, who had 3,435 passing yards. 

The pick: The Cardinal closed strong and I think that momentum gets carried over here. Note that Stanford is 7-2 ATS in its last nine bowl games. Pittsburgh had a ton of momentum, but the humbling loss to Clemson carries over (note that the Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games.) Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Irish are 12-0 and the Tigers are 13-0. This is the Cotton Bowl, but the winner of this will move on to face either Oklahoma or Alabama in the National Championship Game. Notre Dame had to hold on for dear life in its regular season finale vs. USC, while Clemson easily steamrolled Pittsburgh in its ACC Championship title. Both teams feature elite defenses and I believe they’ll “steal the show” in this one. 

The pick: Each team will be trying to establish its run game throughout while on offense. And take it row what you will, but Notre Dame has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last ten after allowing 280 or more passing yards in its previous game and in four of its last five neutral site games, while Clemson has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last nine neutral site affairs on a three weeks or more lay off. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 

10* play

The set-up: I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one. The Cavs come in with zero momentum after losing three of their last four, including to Virginia Tech most recently. The Gamecocks upset the Wolverines in last year’s Outback Bowl and they won their final game of the year over Akron (28-3.) “You get a bunch of bowl gear, and if you lose the game, you damn sure don’t want to wear any of it,” SC coach Will Muschamp said recently. “I haven’t put anything on from the Birmingham Bowl, I’ll tell you that. …When you win the bowl game, it just makes everybody feel better about what’s going on, where the program is headed. …Our guys understand that coming off a win gives you a little more confidence in your program about where you are. But the 2018 team will close its book in Charlotte.” Virginia opened at 6-2, but the Cavs have stumbled unbelievably down the stretch and I think that carries over here. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, South Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. teams with winning records, 6-0 ATS in its last six neutral site games and 4-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss. Virginia is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven when playing on three or more weeks rest on a neutral field. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: No one expected the Orange to finish 9-3 overall and go 5-1 in their last six, but now they’ll look to continue to defy the odds and carry that momentum over into the Camping World Bowl. WVU comes in off back-to-back losses to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma and it’ll be without starting QB Will Grier, who will skip to focus on the draft. That just means that it’s “next man up” for the Mountaineers. And that next man is Jack Allison, who now has a golden opportunity to cement his role next year. WVU is loaded with other offensive weapons though and the Mountaineers will be hungry to finish up strong as well. From a situational stand point, there’s no doubt this one sets up as a “shootout” in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Syracuse has seen the total go “over” the number in five of seven as a favorite already this year, while WVU has seen the total go “over” in five of six already this season when the total is greater than or equal to 63. This number is a little low, play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: I think this one will sneak “over” the number once it’s all said and done. This is the Texas Bowl from NRG Stadium in Houston. Vandy became eligible by winning its final two games of the year over Ole Miss and Tennessee. Baylor’s also looking to cap a 6-6 season a high note after it broke a two-game skid with a bowl eligibility victory over Texas Tech back on November 24th. On offense, Vanderbilt will be leaning on Ke’Shawn Vaughn, who posted 1,001 rushing yards and ten TD’s on 144 carries this season. Baylor is susceptible against the run as well, allowing 172.8 rushing yards per game. Vandy also has a steady presence under center in Kyle Shurmur, who finished with 2,844 yards and 23 passing TD’s. After only one victory last season, clearly the Bears are very happy to be back bowling this year. Baylor’ QB Charlie Brewer finished with 2,635 passing yards and and 17 TD’s. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Vanderbilt has seen the total go “over” in three of its last four when playing with two weeks rest, while Baylor has seen the total go “over” in its last two non-conference games. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

10* play

The set-up: Two 7-5 teams collide in the Pinstripe Bowl on Thursday night and I’m expecting an all out war until the final whistle. Last year Wisconsin beat Miami in the Orange Bowl and I think a repeat performance is in the cards here as well. Note that this game is being played at Yankee Stadium and in three road games in relatively cold weather against Virginia, Georgia Tech and BC, the Hurricanes managed just 48 total points in those ones. Miami has a great defense, but the offense was middle of the road in averaging only 374.6 YPG. At 4-4 in the ACC, this was considered a poor year for Miami. Wisconsin finished 5-4 in the Big 10 West. The Badgers rely on a strong run game on offense and an above average defense which allows just 358.8 YPG. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU loss, while Miami is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven bowl games and only 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. the Big Ten. Grab the points.

8* play

The set-up: In what is expected to be a very low-scoring defensive battle, I like the Horned Frogs to pull away down the stretch for the victory. TCU was 3-5, but it closed the season strong by winning three of its final four, including a 31-24 home win over OK State in its regular season finale to make it to 6-6. I think the Frogs carry that momentum over here. Cal on the other hand maybe peaked too early, as it had won four of five before a loss to Stanford in its finale (a disastrous 10-6 setback.) Cal averages 22.8 PPG and it allows 21.2. TCU average 24.7 PPG and it allows 24.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Cal is just 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games, while TCU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following a win in which it scored 30 points or more and following a two weeks or more break. Play on the Horned Frogs.

10* play

The set-up: I think the Yellow Jackets’ option attack will prove to be too much for the Gophers to keep up to down the stretch in this one. Georgia Tech ended the year with a loss to Georgia, finishing 7-5 overall, while Minnesota was 6-6, managing to gut out the sixth win with a very satisfying victory over rival Wisconsin. Can anyone say letdown spot? In fact, that victory over the Badgers is much bigger than a win here could possibly mean. Georgia Tech couldn’t finish with an upset in its finale, but it had signature victories of its own over Miami, Virginia Tech and Virginia this season. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but GT is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games, while Minnesota is just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight following a SU victory. This one has blowout written all over it. Lay the points.

8* play

The set-up: Buffalo enters with a 10-3 record, while Troy finished 9-3. Buffalo averaged 34.8 PPG, behind a strong rushing offense which finished 45th in the country. The Bulls were above average defensively, allowing just 24.7 PPG, ranked 48th (Jared Patterson and Kevin Marks had 1,751 rushing yards combined). Troy only averaged 29.8 PPG, but it made up for it on the other side of the ball by allowing only 21.2 (ranked 23rd.) The Trojans had to make a shift at QB when No. 1 Kaleb Barker went down with injury and backup Sawyer Smith was average at best, finishing with a 10/6 TD:INT over seven games. Troy’s offense revolves around RB BJ Smith, who posted at least 100 rushing yards in five of his last eight games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Buffalo has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine after having lost two of its last three games, while Troy has seen the total go “under” in four of its last five following a two weeks or more period of rest. This number is high, play the “under.” 

8* play

The set-up: Mike Norvell is looking to lead the 8-5 Memphis Tigers to their first bowl win since 2014. Norvell has taken his team to two other bowl games, but he’s come up short each time. Wake Forest finished 6-6 and it could just be happy to be here after winning both the Military Bowl in 2016 and the Belk Bowl last year. Both teams are dealing with injuries to key offensive players. Wake Forest is likely without the services of Greg Dortch, who led the ACC with 1,750 all purpose yards, but who suffered a finger injury in the Deacons’ 59-7 rout of Duke in their finale (if he does play, clearly he won’t be at 100% health). Memphis averages 43.6 PPG, but it’ll be without star RB Darrell Henderson, who will move onto the NFL now. Regardless, the Tigers are still loaded with talent and I have a hard time seeing the Deacons keeping pace down the stretch.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Memphis is 7-3 ATS in its last ten following an ATS loss, while Wake Forest is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine vs. teams above the .500 mark. Lay the points and expect a rout.

10* play

The set-up: Both teams return to bowl action after missing last year. Both teams have a freshman QB under center today. Both were forced into the starters role in the middle of the campaign for different reasons. WMU is averaging 33.2 PPG, while allowing 33.2. Kaleb Eleby helped WMU end a three-gam losing streak with a 28-21 win over NIU in the regular season finale. Eleby finished with 285 passing yards. BYU is averaging only 25.4 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other end, allowing just 21.7. Zach Wilson finished with 1,261 yards passing with a 10/6 TD:INT over six starts for the Cougars. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but BYU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after playing with two weeks or more of rest, while WMU is 8-4 ATS in is last 12 following a home win. This one has competitive battle written all over it. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: South Florida opened the season 7-0, but it then lost five straight to finish 7-5. With a chance to erase the disappointing second half with a third straight bowl victory, I think the Bulls will pull off the minor upset today. Marshall last played on December 1st, a 41-20 loss to the Hokies which snapped a three-game win streak. A three week layoff isn’t going to help the Herds’ chemistry. USF will be leaning heavily on the RB duo of Jordan Cronkrite and Johnny Ford, shoe combined for over 1,800 rushing yards and 17 TD’s. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Marshall is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a road favorite and already 0-2 ATS this year when playing with two weeks or more of rest, while USF is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing with two weeks or more of rest and 3-1 ATS in its last four following a loss of 17 points or more. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: SDSU lost its final three games, but it comes in healthy to this one and it’s loaded with talent and experience. The bottom line is I think that the Aztecs are the more “complete” team through all three phases. Ohio comes in off two straight wins to end the regular season over Buffalo and Akron. The problem for the Bobcats’ high-powered ground attack, is that SDSU’s strength on the defensive side of the ball is against he run. In fact the Aztecs rank fourth nationally in stopping the run. In total SDSU allows just 94.5 YPG rushing. SDSU death with injury issues all year to key offensive pieces, but they’re both back healthy here (QB Christian Chapman and RB Juwan Washington). These two will have something to prove in this bowl.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SDSU is 3-1 ATS in its last four off an upset loss as a double digit fav, while Ohio is only 3-5 ATS in its last eight after a win by 21 points or more. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. UAB won the C-USA with a 10-3 record, while NIU was 8-5 overall. The Blazers ten wins were a school record and UAB got the job done with stifling defensive play. UAB has a question mark with its starting QB AJ Erdely, but the strength on offense is the run game behind Spencer Brown anyways. The UAB offense would only post 30 points four times this year, but the defense is allowing just 17.3 PPG. NIU also relies on its run game to generate offense, led by Tre Harbison. The Huskies averaged only 20.7 PPG and they allowed just 21.5. 

The pick: Two defensive minded teams which rely on the run game collide in this one. Also note that UAB has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last five then the total is set between 42.5 and 49 points, while NIU has seen the total go “under” in ten of its last 15 when the total is set in the same points range. This number is high, play the “under.” 

10* play

The set-up: Arizona State closed the year strong under new head coach Herm Edwards, but I think the Sun Devils will struggle to keep pace with the Bulldogs. Fresno State was 11-2 overall, while ASU was 7-5. Arizona State has a couple of big time playmakers in QB’ Manny Wilkins and RB Eno Benjamin, but it lacks depth on the offensive side. Fresno State QB Marcus McMaryion is a difference maker here. McMaryion finished by completing 70 percent of his passes to go along with a sharp 25/3 TD:INT. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ASU is only 4-5 ATS in its last nine non-conference games and just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after scoring and allowing 30 points or more in its last game, while Fresno State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. Lay the points, expect a rout.

8* play

The set-up: Tulane was 6-6 and UL Lafayette finished 7-6. The Ragin Cajuns lost 30-19 to App State in the Sun Belt title game, but I think Lafayette will keep this one close. These teams played in 2016 and the Green Wave came from behind to post the 41-39 OT win. The Green Wave though average just 25.7 PPG. Tulane struggles against the pass defensively as well, allowing 265.2 YPG. UL Lafayette QB Andre Nunez has 2,136 passing yards and a 64.4 percent completion percentage. Overall Lafayette allows 33.7 PPG, but the unit catches a big break here facing the Green Wave’s impotent offensive attack. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UL Lafayette is 4-0 ATS in its last four after a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games, while Tulane is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after two or more weeks of rest. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Navy dominated this match-up for over a decade, but the Army Golden Knights come into this year’s match-up having won two straight. Army is 9-2 in 2018 and enters on top form, having won seven straight. Navy is just 3-9 and it’s gone only 1-8 in its last nine overall. The Midshipmen live for this game though and I’m expecting the underdog to push the pace from start to finish. This is the first time since 2002 that Navy will finish with a losing record, so it’ll have one last shot at redemption here as it looks to play spoiler on Army’s great overall campaign to this point. With both teams pushing the pace, from a situational stand point, there’s no doubt this one sets up as a higher-scoring shootout. 

The pick: Note as well though that Navy has seen the total go “over” the number in three of its last four as a neutral field underdog, while Army has seen the total go “over” in 14 of its last 20 as a favorite. Play the “over.”

10* play

The set-up: These two teams are very familiar with each other. Last year Boise State won this exact game vs. this exact opponent 17-14 and I believe we’ll see a much bigger final discrepancy this time around. Fresno State comes in at 10-2 after last week’s 31-13 win over San Jon Jose State. Fresno State averages 36.3 PPG and it allows 13.5. Boise State comes in on top form, having won seven straight, most recently a 33-24 win over No. 21 ranked Utah State last weekend to advance to the Championship game. Overall the Broncos are averaging 37 PPG and allowing 22.3. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boise State is already 4-2 ATS at home this year. These teams actually played at Albertsons Stadium earlier this season and the Broncos came out on top 24-17. This is a horrible match-up for Fresno State and I think that trend continues. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: It’s the AAC Championship between Memphis and UCF. The Tigers finished 8-4 overall, while the Knights come in at 11-0. UCF may be without its starting QB McKenzie Milton, but I think that Darriel Mack Jr. is “the next man up,” and will fill in seamlessly. The Tigers will be relying on the legs of RB Darrell Henderson, who had 24 carries for 178 yards and two TD’s in last week’s high-scoring 52-31 win over Houston. 

The pick: Mack is out to prove himself and he will be given the green light to air it out all night long. Memphis will be pushing the pace as well as it tries to pull off the upset. When you add it all up, this one has high-scoring “shootout” written all over it.

8* play

The set-up: Its the inaugural Sun Belt Conference title game and a trip to the New Orleans Bowl is at stake. Am I call for an outright upset? I am not. However, I do think the Ragin Cajuns can keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Louisiana Lafayette won its final three games to earn its spot here, while App State defeated Troy State to advance. Lafayette averages 33.7 PPG. Clearly it’s not going to be a cake walk as the Mountaineers have won four straight since a 34-14 setback to Georgia Southern. App State gets the job done with a strong run, averaging 242.5 YPG, while racking up 27 TDs. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but UL Lafayette is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a record above the .500 mark. Both will be looking to establish the run. This one is going to be much tighter than what Las Vegas wants us to think. grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: It’s the PAC 12 Championship and I’m expecting a blowout. The No. 17 Utah Utes face the No. 16 Washington Huskies. The Utes enter off a 35-27 win over BYU, while the Huskies earned a 28-15 road victory over a tough WSU team. The Huskies have dominated this series for a long time, going 11-1 the last 12, including a convincing 21-7 road victory back on September 15th. Utah had to come from behind to beat BYU last weekend and overall it’s averaging 30.8 PPG and allowing 19.2. Washington averages 28 PPG and it allows only 16.5. Veteran QB Jake Browning plays in his final PAC 12 game of his career and I believe his veteran experience in this situation can not be overlooked. The Utes are without RB Zack Moss and QB Tyler Huntley as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after two or more SU victories, while Washington is still 5-2 ATS in its last seen as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: This is an important game for both teams. The winner plays in the Big West title game. Utah State has won ten in a row and it plays with revenge after falling in this contest last year. The Aggies have a difficult task ahead of them and they were almost caught “looking ahead” to this one with a “close call” against Colorado State last weekend. Utah State has its eyes on a big bowl game, but it’ll have to take it one game at a time: “Survive and advance. Just like in the NCAA Tournament,” Utah State head coach Matt Wells said after the game, according to the Associated Press, via ESPN.com. “You know, I’m going to celebrate after a win like this. I’m going to let the players celebrate all the way until Monday. We have a special season going.”

Boise State looked decent offensively against a weak New Mexico defense last week, but the Broncos looked great defensively, holding the Lobos to only 14 points.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah State has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last six vs. teams with winning records, while Boise State has seen the total go “under” in four of five already this year after two or more consecutive SU victories. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: Arizona State lost 31-29 in Oregon last weekend and with that setback, it’s now out of contention for the Pac 12 championship. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? Arizona on the other hand desperately needs a victory to become eligible. After last week’s humbling 69-28 loss to WSU, I look for the home side to make the most of this one. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after allowing 67 or more points in its previous outing in a loss, while ASU is only 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following a SU victory. Grab the points.

The set-up: UCLA looks primed for a letdown here after it beat rival USC last weekend. Stanford smashed Oregon State last Saturday to become eligible, but I look for the Cardinal to keep the foot on the gas to end the the regular season. Stanford QB KJ Costello has thrown for over 300 yards in four of his last five games. Last week he had 342 passing yards and four TD’s. Defensively the Cardinal looked good as well, holding the Beavers to just 17 points. UCLA got a huge game from RB Joshua Kelley last week with 289 rushing yards and two TD’s, but QB Wilton Speight looked pretty ordinary, finishing with 166 passing yards and 1:1 TD:INT.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCLA is 2-6 ATS in its last eight at home while Stanford is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. teams with losing records. I don’t think Kelley will rush for nearly 300 yards again this week and because of that, I look for the Bruins to suffer another letdown. Lay the points.

The set-up: The SEC and the ACC collide on Saturday afternoon. The Gators enter off a satisfying 63-10 win over Idaho, while Florida State enters off a confidence building 22-21 home win over Boston College. FSU won this game 38-22 last year. Florida averages 33.9 PPG and it allows 21. Florida’s bowl berth will not be affected with a win or loss today. FSU though is 5-6 and it’ll be desperate for a win today. The Eagles are allowing 30.6 PPG this year, while averaging only 22.6. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Florida is just 2-3 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range, while FSU is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games. Grab the points.

The set-up: This is a big game for both teams, as the winner will go on to lay in the Big Ten Title game next weekend. The Wolverines enter off a 31-20 home win over Indiana, while Ohio State surveyed a 52-51 OT win in Maryland. Michigan has lost six straight in this series, but the Wolverines’ dominating defense this year is going to be the difference in my opinion. Michigan allows only 13.5 PPG, while averaging 26.6. Ohio State is averaging 41.6 PPG and allowing 24.6. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Ohio State is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven after scoring more than 40 in its previous game, while Michigan is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 following an ATS loss. I look for the Wolverines to finally get the monkey off their back. Lay the points.

The set-up: The winner of this game will play in the Pac 12 Championship. In a contest which I see coming down to whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. Washington always has a chance with QB Jake Browning under center. He’s played WSU three times over his career already and outscored it 131-41 combined. WSU has the highest-scoring offenses in the league, but the Huskies can match pace. Plus Washington’s defense is stout and it’ll be able to slow down the “Air Raid” at the end of the day.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 6-4 ATS in its last ten Pac 12 road games, while WSU is only 2-4 ATS in its last six a conference home fav in the +2.5 to +6.5 points range. Grab the points.

The set-up: This is an important game for both teams and that fact alone is the reason why I predict a high-scoring shootout. The Sooners will be playing in the Big 12 Championship Game next week no matter what, but clearly Oklahoma would like to win out with the hopes of somehow making it into the Playoff Championship. WVU needs to win this game and have Texas lose for its opportunity to play in the Conference championship and while the deck is stacked against them, clearly the Mountaineers are going to leave everything they have on the field on Seniors night. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a high-scoring game in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oklahoma has seen the total go “over” the number in eight of its last ten as a road favorite, while WVU has seen the total go “over” in five of its last eight as an underdog. This number is low, play the “over.” 

The set-up: Texas needs a win here to punch its ticket to the Big 12 Championship game and whether QB Sam Ehlinger plays or not, I think the Longhorns find a way to get the job done here. Texas is averaging 32.4 PPG and it’s allowing 25.9. The Jayhawks are averaging 24.5 PPG and allowing 30.5. 

The pick: Additionally note that the Longhorns are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five road conference games a favorite in the -14 to -17 points range, while Kansas is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 vs. teams with winning records. Lay the points.

The set-up: Ole Miss still needs one more win to become eligible. Clearly this game means “more” to the Rebels than to the 7-4 Bulldogs. Mississippi State looks primed for a letdown though after winning three of four, including a satisfying beatdown of Arkansas most recently. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Mississippi State is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Mississippi is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home dog in the 10.5 to 14 points range. Grab the points.

The set-up: WMU lost starting QB Jon Wassink three games ago and the Broncos have lost three straight. Both teams are already bowl eligible. NIU had won six straight before a tough 13-7 home loss to Miami Ohio last weekend. The Huskies were already eligible and they ran into a buzz saw in the Redhawks, who still need one more win to qualify, but who were fighting for their lives in that one and on a win streak of their own. The Huskies are averaging only 19.8 PPG, but they’re allowing just 20.3. The Broncos are averaging 33.6 PPG and they’re allowing 34.5. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WMU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home, while NIU is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: Arizona State has a chance to represent the South division of the Pac 12 with a win today, but Oregon will be doing everything in its power to prevent that. ASU will be going bowling for a second straight season though win or lose. QB Manny Wilkins has 2,449 yards, 16 TD’s and four INT’s. The Sun Devils defense took a hit this week with LB Merlin Roberson suspended after last week’s game against UCLA for a dirty hit. The Ducks are 6-4, but a couple more victories will elevate their bowl berth. QB Justin Herbert is the difference maker for me in this particular matchup though. Herbert has 2,621 passing yards and 25 TD’s thus far. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ASU is just 12-25-1 ATS in its last 38 as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Oregon is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 as a favorite in the same points range. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: This is a big game, as the winner will claim a share of second place in the conference. Iowa State is 6-3 and it’ll secure at least a fourth-place finish in the Big 12 with a win. The Cyclones are averaging 34.4 PPG during their five-game win streak. Texas avoided a three-game losing streak by besting Texas Tech 41-34 last weekend. QB Sam Ehlinger was sharp with 312 yards and a career high four TD passes and I think he’ll carry that momentum over here in this crucial game in front of the home town crowd. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Texas is 12-5-2 ATS in its last 19 vs. teams with a record above .500. The Longhorns secondary catches a break this week facing the run heavy Cyclones. I have hard time seeing Iowa State matching pace down the stretch. Lay the points.

8* play

The set-up: Outright victory? Of course not. UMass saw a two game win streak snapped in a loss to BYU, while Georgia tries to stay focused over a two-game non-conference stretch before the SEC Championship game. The Minute-Men do feature offensive talent as well, including WR Andy Isabella, who had two TD catches in a triple OT win over Liberty on Nov. 3rd. 

The pick: It’s a classic trap game for the Bulldogs and I believe they fall right in. Note that Georgia is just 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with losing records, while interestingly, UMass is 7-0 ATS in its last seven vs. the SEC. I’m grabbing the points.

 8* play

The set-up: It’s the No. 13 Syracuse Orange vs. the No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish from Yankee Stadium in New York on Saturday and in my opinion, this one has defensive battle written all over it. The Orange enter off a high-scoring 54-23 victory over Louisville, while the Irish come in off a 42-13 home beatdown of FSU. Overall Syracuse is averaging 44.4 PPG and allowing 27.6. Notre Dame needs to win today and next week against USC and it’ll be going to the College Football playoff. Overall the Irish average 34.5 PPG and they concede only 18.7. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Syracuse has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine road games after scoring 52 points or more in a victory in its previous outing. The neutral site affair helps turn this into a lower-scoring “under.”

8* play

The set-up: I’m clearly not calling for an outright upset, but I do definitely expect the visiting side to keep this one more competitive than what this line would suggest. Mississippi State went blow for blow with Alabama last Saturday but fell 24-0. The Bulldogs looked “ok” defensively, but overall it was a humbling loss. Arkansas nearly upset LSU last Saturday, as QB Ty Storey went for 200 yards and two TD’s. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arkansas is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 off a loss against a conference rival, while Mississippi State is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: SMU in first place in the West Division of the American with a 4-2 overall record, while Memphis just 3-3. When these teams played last year, it was the Tigers that destroyed the Mustangs 66-45 at home. Memphis has struggled against teams like Missouri and UCF, but it enters off back to back blowout wins (47-21 over Tulsa and 59-41 over East Carolina.) So far the Tigers are averaging 531.9 YPG. SMU has won two straight as well, but like its counterpart today, defense has been the issue all year. SMU’ QB Ben Hicks has a sharp 16/4 TD:INT, but I still think the Mustangs will struggle keeping pace with the now surging Tigers.

The pick: I think Memphis lays the hammer down here despite reaching the six win plateau last weekend. SMU needs one more victory, but it’ll have to wait one more weekend to try and get it. Lay the points.

The set-up: FAU comes in off an upset 35-14 victory over WKU, while North Texas suffered an upset loss in a 34-31 setback to Old Dominion. Note that this is a revenge game for the Mean Green after FAU posted the 69-31 home win over UNT last year. Despite last weeks win though, the Owls are still averaging only 31.1 PPG, while allowing 31.3. And despite last week’s loss, the Mean Green are still averaging 37.2 PPG and allowing 20.3. 

The pick: Note that UNT is 4-1 at home this year and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 after allowing more than 280 yards passing in its previous game, while FAU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records. This one has blowout written all over it. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Toledo enters off a 38-15 road loss to Illinois last Wednesday, while Kent State comes in off a 48-14 loss to Buffalo on the road last Tuesday. Toledo has won three in a row in the series, including a 38-7 victory at home last year. Toledo is averaging 38.6 PPG and it’s allowing 31.5. QB Mitchel Guadagni has 1,053 passing yards and 13 TD’s, while also adding 423 on he ground and another four TD’s. Kent Tate is averaging 23.3 points and it’s allowing 35.6. QB Woody Barrett has 1,932 passing yards with ten TD’s and eight INT’s with another 422 rushing yards and six TD’s on the ground.

The play: Note that Toledo has seen the total go “over” the number in two of its last three as a favorite, while Kent State has seen the total go “over” in eight of its last 14 at home. Both teams hungry for a win. This number is a low, play the “over.” 

The set-up: Buffalo is 9-1 and it’s won five straight. The Bulls have never opened a season 9-1 before and if they win today, they’ll clinch the division. However, I think the hungry Bobcats will battle hard and find a way to defend home turf. Previous to last week’s tough 30-28 loss to Miami Ohio, Ohio has been on fire. The Bobcats ran into an equally as hungry side in the Redhawks and they just didn’t have enough on the road. A little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered in my opinion though.

The pick: Note that Ohio is 6-1 ATS in its last seven against teams with winning records and 6-2 ATS in its last eight off a loss against a conference rival. Home field is the difference. Play on Ohio.

10* play

The set-up: WMU is already bowl eligible, but since losing QB Jon Wassink to injury, the Broncos have struggled on both sides of the ball. It appears the team has packed it in with just a few games remaining. The Cardinals will need to run the board to become eligible and while that’s likely not going to happen with an injury to their starting QB as well, the home side certainly won’t going down without a fight tonight.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WMU is already 2-4 ATS this year against teams with losing records, while Ball State is 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. Grab the points and expect a competitive battle.

The set-up: Oregon State enters off a 38-21 loss at home to USC, while Stanford comes in desperate, having lost two straight and four of five, most recently a tight 27-23 setback at Washington last weekend. Oregon State is averaging 417.1 YPG on offense, but it’s very weak defensively, allowing 262.3 YPG through the air and 274.8 YPG on the ground. Stanford is allowing 266.3 YPG through the air and it’s averaging 26.1 PPG overall. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Cardinal are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games after two or more consecutive SU/ATS setbacks. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: Auburn enters off a confidence building 28-24 home win over No. 20 Texas A&M on Saturday, while Georgia looks primed for a bit of a letdown here after clinching the SEC East title and a spot in the SEC Championship Game after beating No. 9 Kentucky 34-17 at home last week. This is a revenge game as well for Auburn after Georgia won 27-7 in the SEC title game on December 2nd, 2017. The Tigers enter averaging 28.3 PPG, while allowing 17.3. The Bulldogs enter averaging 38.1 PPG and allowing 16.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Auburn is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference road games as an underdog of two TD’s or more. I’m banking on a competitive affair. Grab the points.

The set-up: It’s the “Bedlam Series” this weekend and the Sooners wine this game on the road by a score of 62-52. I don’t think we’ll see such a high-scoring shootout this time around, but I do expect a similar final discrepancy in score once it’s all said and done. Oklahoma State comes in off a 35-31 road loss to Baylor, while Oklahoma enters off a 51-46 road victory over Texas Tech. Oklahoma State is averaging 38.3 PPG and it’s allowing 29.9. Oklahoma is averaging 49.1 PPG and it’s allowing 27.9. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Oklahoma is just 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records, while Oklahoma State is interestingly 6-2 ATS in its last eight after posting more than 450 total yards in its previous game. Also note that the road team is 5-1 ATS the last six in this series. Grab the points.

At 3:30pmET, my selection is one Michigan/Rutgers to finish OVER the total. As one of the lowest totals on the board, I believe that this game gives everyone great value on the OVER. Michigan may even enough to score higher than the total themselves as they average 37 PPG this season so far. The last time the Wolverines played in HighPoint.com Stadium, they scored a total of 78 points. Look for another high scoring game. Take the OVER.

The set-up: Wisconsin enters off a 31-17 win over Rutgers, while Penn State comes in dejected after a humbling 42-7 road loss at No. 5 Michigan last Saturday. While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I’m banking on a much tighter battle than what this spread would indicate. Wisconsin is averaging 31 PPG and it’s allowing 20.9. QB Alex Hornibrook has 1,343 yards with an 11/8 TD:INT. Penn State is averaging 37.2 PPG and it’s allowing 24.4. QB Trace McSorely has 1,711 passing yards and a 12/5 TD:INT. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Penn State is just 2-13-2 ATS in its last 17 following a SU loss and 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven after scoring less than 20 points in its previous game, while Wisconsin is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games vs. teams with winning home records. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

10* MSU

The set-up: Ohio State comes in off a tough 36-31 home win over Nebraska and I think it’ll have its hands full here as well in this difficult road venue. Michigan State enters off a 24-3 win over Maryland. This is a big time revenge game as well for the Spartans, as Ohio State has taken two straight in the series, including a 48-3 victory last November. Ohio State is averaging 42.2 PPG and it’s allowing 23.8, while MSU is averaging 23.4 PPG, while allowing just 19. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Ohio State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following a two games or more unbeaten streak and in which it’s a road fav in the -3 to -10 points range, while MSU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing three points or less in its previous contest. This one has the all the makings of whichever team that has its hands on the ball last is going to come out on top. Grab the points.

The set-up: Fresno State is 8-1 and 5-0 in MWC play, while Boise State is 7-2 and 4-1 in conference action. It’s a huge game for both teams. The Bulldogs have the advantage on the defensive side of the ball, but not by much. The Broncos sit only a game back of Utah, who just lost its starting QB last week. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a deciding factor in this one.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boise State is 3-0 ATS in its last three as an underdog. In a contest which I look to be decided by whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.

The set-up: Will struggling Louisville win this one outright? Of course not. I’m not suggesting that whatsoever. The Cardinals are coming off a humbling loss to the Clemson Tigers, but they’ll be eager to atone for that blunder for head coach Bobby Petrino. Clearly Syracuse is the better team, but in my opinion this sets up as a “letdown” spot in some small way after big wins over Wake Forest, NC State and UNC.

The play: Take it for what you will as well, but Syracuse is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. teams with losing records and just 8-10 ATS in its last 18 on the road. Look for Louisville to open up the playbook and keep this one competitive late. Grab the points.

Bonus: The set-up: Fresno State is 8-1 and 5-0 in MWC play, while Boise State is 7-2 and 4-1 in conference action. It’s a huge game for both teams. The Bulldogs have the advantage on the defensive side of the ball, but not by much. The Broncos sit only a game back of Utah, who just lost its starting QB last week. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a deciding factor in this one.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boise State is 3-0 ATS in its last three as an underdog. In a contest which I look to be decided by whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.

The set-up: Wake Forest comes in off a loss to Syracuse and it lost its starting QB for the season in the process. Can anyone say letdown spot?! After back-to-back defeats, NC State finally bounced back with a destruction of FSU at home in its latest action, becoming bowl eligible in the process. Wake forest is averaging 32.2 PPG, but with QB Sam Hartman went down with injury mid-way though and because of that, I’m expecting the Demon Deacons to struggle to keep up with the Wolfpack. NC State is giving up just 25.5 PPG, while averaging 32.5.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the home team is 18-4 ATS in the last 22 in this series, while Wake is now just 1-5 ATS in its last six conference contests. Wake has struggled against superior competition this year and nothing is going to change here. Lay the points. 

The set-up: Ohio is on a roll and that’s not going to stop this weekend facing the RedHawks, who just lost 51-42 to Buffalo. The Bobcats are rolling across the board, , most recently winning 52-14 and 59-14 over WMU as a three-point dog last weekend.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Ohio has seen the total go “over” the number in both games that it’s played so far this season as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range and in three of its last four off a win against a conference rival, while the RedHawks have seen the total go “over” in four of five as an underdog already this year (and in four of their last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range). The RedHawks desperately need a win here to keep their bowl hopes alive. With each team pushing the pace, I’m expecting this one to soar “over” sooner, rather than later.

Writeup: The set-up: Kent State comes in off a 35-28 road over Bowling Green, while Buffalo hammered Miami Ohio 52-41 in its latest action. Last year the Bulls posted the 27-13 road victory at Kent State. On paper, clearly the Bulls have the advantage (the Golden Flashes average 24.3 PPG and allow 34.2, while Buffalo is averaging 34.9 PPG, while allowing 23.4. 

The pick: But winning leads to complacency and I do indeed think the Bulls get caught “looking past” their opponent today. Note that Kent State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog in the 11 to 23 points range. Grab the points.

The set-up: The Irish look to remain undefeated after knocking off Navy last weekend. Northwestern has already knocked off two ranked foes this year, but I think the Wildcats will come up short here against Notre Dames complete team.

The teams: Notre Dame posted 584 total yards of offense against a hungry Navy team last weekend. A perfect season is in the Irish’s grasp, but they’ll have to stay focused now and take it one game at a time. 

Northwestern managed three fumble recoveries against Wisconsin, but RB Isaiah Brewer was one of the lone bright spots on offense with 117 yards and a TD. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Wildcats are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five following a victory, while the Irish are 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a win by 20 points or more. Notre Dame is on a mission and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas this weekend. Lay the points.

The set-up: Missouri comes in off a 15-14 loss to Kentucky last Saturday, while Florida enters off a 36-17 beatdown loss at the hands of Georgia. If recent history is any precedence, then Missouri has to be liking its chances today as in last year’s matchup it won 45-16.

The teams: Missouri is averaging 35.5 PPG and it’s allowing 28.9. QB Drew Lock has 2,144 passing yards with 16 TD’s and six INT’s. 

Florida is averaging 32.2 PPG and it’s allowing 19. QB Feleipe Franks has 16 TD’s and six INT’s so far this season. Last weekend the Gators came back down to earth, turning the ball over three times, while not forcing one themselves.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Missouri is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference road games in which it was held to points or less in its previous game and lost, while Florida is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine after scoring 17 points or less in a loss in its previous outing. Grab the points and expect a battle until the final moments!

The set-up: Cincinnati is 7-1 and it comes in complacent at home in my opinion, leaving the backdoor open for the 2-6 Navy Midshipmen, who come in off tough setbacks to SMU, Air Force, Temple, Houston and Notre Dame. 

The teams: It’s do or die for Navy, as it’ll have to run the board starting now to become eligible. An outright win? Likely not. But after four straight losses and with the season on the line, we do not have to doubt the Mids motivation levels this afternoon.

The Bearcats barely managed to get past SMU 26-20 in OT last weekend. Coach Luke Fickell has his team trending in the correct direction and while the Bearcats will most likely go on to win this game, I do indeed believe that the stage is set for a mental letdown. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Navy is 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Cincinnati is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. I’m banking on the desperation levels that the Mids bring to the table today to keep this one competitive late. Grab the points.

The set-up: If recent history is any precedence then Purdue has to be liking it chances today, because it would win this matchup last year on the road by a score of 24-15. Iowa comes in off a 30-24 loss to Penn State, while Purdue lost 23-13 to MSU on the road last weekend.

The teams: Iowa is averaging 29.8 PPG and conceding 16.1. QB Nate Stanley had a horrible game against PSU, going for 20 yards with no TD’s and two INT’s. 

Purdue is averaging 32.9 PPG and it’s allowing 22.8. Previous to last week’s loss at Michigan State, QB David Blough and the Boilermakers’ offense ha score 40-plus points in each of their previous three victories. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as all, but Purdue is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game, while Iowa is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing 30 points or more. I like the Boilermakers to bounce back at home after last week’s tough road loss. Lay the points.