The set-up: FIU finished with a 6-6 record and finished the regular season with an OT loss to Marshall. Arkansas State finished 7-5 and closed with a loss on the road to South Alabama. Arkansas State allows 228 YPG on the ground and FIU averages 168 YPG. FIU QB James Morgan finished with 2,248 passing yards and a weak 13:3 TD:INT. Arkansas State though has a top 20 passing offense, led by freshman QB Layne Hatcher. The Panthers allow over 200 YPG rushing as well, so the Red Wolves' strong run/pass attack is going to be the difference in the end in my opinion. 

The pick: Additionally note that FIU is a terrible 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games, while Arkansas State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss. I have a hard time seeing the Panthers keeping pace down the stretch vs. a Red Wolves offense which averages 36.7 PPG. Lay the points.

8* play on Arkansas State.

The set-up: This is a home game for the Owls, as this game is being played at FAU Stadium. SMU is enoying just its sixth ten win season in its 102 year history. The Mustangs won eight in a row before a blowout loss to Memphis, followed by a 35-28 setback to Navy. The Mustangs are averaging 43.2 PPG and allowing 31.8. However with the extended time off, I think that QB Shane Buechele's chemistry will be "off" to begin. FAU is stingy as well and it comes in on a six-game win streak after beating UAB 49-6 in the Conference USA Championship Game. The Owls average 2.5 takeaways per game and a +1.6 turnover margin per contest. 

The pick: Additionally note that SMU has in fact seen the total go under the number in its last five as a road favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range, while FAU has seen the total dip under in 14 of its last 20 at home, including in five of seven this season. This number is a tad high in my opinion. 

8* play on the UNDER SMU/FAU.

The set-up: Two teams that sputtered down the stretch of the regular season collide on Saturday in the Cure Bowl. The Flames are poor at stopping the run, and that's the Eagles strength. Funnily enough, Liberty's strength is its passing game, while Georgia Southern's weakness is against the pass. With a few weeks off to regroup, I think it's going to be Flames' QB Steven Calvert who shines in this one. Calvert had 3,000 passing yards, as well as a sharp 26:5 TD:INT. 

The pick: And that's bad new for an Eagles' pass defense which gave up at least 283 total yards through the air in three of their last four games. QB Shai Werts' numbers are his worst in the last three years due to significant injuries to his line as well. Finally note that Liberty is 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Georgia Southern is 7-3 ATS in its last ten off a home victory, including 3-1 ATS this season. I like the Flames' arial attack to be the difference in the end. That said, let's grab the points.

8* play on Liberty.

The set-up: Last year CMU was 1-11, but this year they lost to Miami Ohio 26-24 in the MAC Championship game. The Chips were 8-5 and they enter this contest with a balanced offense, ranked 40th in the country in both passing and running. SDSU was 9-3 on the year and finished behind Hawaii in the MWC West. The Aztecs only allow 12.8 PPG, but I think the unit will take a predictable step back here after the long lay off. Clearly CMU is going to be out to push the pace as it looks to take the Aztecs out of their comfort zone. QB Quinten Dormady is a senior for the CHips and he had 2,148 passing yards with a sharp 14:6 TD:INT. 

The pick: I'll point out as well that CMU has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six as an underdog this year, while SDSU has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four as a neutal field favorite of seven points or less. This number is a tad low.

10* play on CMU/SDSU OVER.

The set-up: I believe that the 7-5 Utah State Aggies will lay the hammer down on the 6-6 Kent State Golden Flashes. I think Kent State is just happy to be here, making only its third bowl appearance in program history. Aggies' QB Jordan Love will make his final appearance for his team today and I expect him to have a big game (most recently he had three TD's in his team's 38-25 win over New Mexico.) Note that according to Mel Kiper, Love is the seventh ranked QB going into the draft this summer. The Golden Flashes have QB Dustin Crum under center and he threw for 2,333 yards and 18 TD's on the year, but I believe he'll have a hard time keeping up to the Aggie's high-tempo pace with a lack of a run game. 

The pick: Addtionlly note that the Golden Flashes are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after a three game SU unbeaten streak, while the Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. I'm laying the points and expecting a complete blowout.

8* play on Utah State.

The set-up: I like 7-5 Buffalo to crush 7-5 Charlotte. Buffalo comes in with considerable momentum and I think the Bulls carry that momentum over after winning five of six and three straight ot end the regular season. Charlotte on the other hand is just happy to be here in my opinion, as the 49ers make their first bowl appearance ever in their five-year history. 

The pick: Both teams average 31.5 PPG. Charlotte concedes 32.6 PPG though (which dropped to only 19 over its final five games, but I still think the 49ers will have a hard time slowing down Kyle Vantrease and the Bulls.) Additionally note that Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a favorite, while Charlotte is just 5-13 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games. The Bulls are ranked No. 35 in the country on defense as well. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points.

8* play on Buffalo.

The set-up: For over a decade Navy domianted this series, but over the last five it's been Army that's had the decisive upper-hand. But that was then and this is now. These teams are moving in opposite directions coming into this one and I expect those trends to continue. Army finished 5-7 and it ended its campaign with a listless 52-31 road loss to Hawaii. Navy on the other hand finished 9-2 and it enters this contest on a two game win streak. 

The pick: Army averages 30.3 PPG and it allows 22.3. Navy averages 39.3 PPG and it allows 24.2. Both teams run the triple option, but Army allows 144 rushing yards per game. I think that Navy' QB Malcom Perry is going to have a big day here. Additionally note that the Midshipmen are 7-1 ATS in their last eight as a favorite and 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. teams with losing records, while Army is only 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss. I'm laying the points and expecting a blowout from start to finish.

10* SIDE WINNER on Navy.

The set-up: I think the high-paced, high-flying 12-0 Ohio State Buckeyes keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Ohio State has won nine of the last ten in this series and covered in eight. Wisconsin has won four straight after dropping two in a row to these very Buckeyes, and also inexplicably to Illinois. But Ohio State has overcome every challenge so far this year and now that it's gotten this far, I expect an even more focussed effort from QB Justin Fields (37 TD's and only one pick.) Keep your eyes on RB JK Dobbins as well. 

The pick: Wisconsin averages 35.8 PPG and it only allows 14.6. QB Jack Coan has 17 TD's and four INT's. The Badgers though are only 2-4 ATS in their last six as a dog and only 1-3 ATS this year off a win by ten points or more vs. a conference rival. Ohio State on the other hand is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a neutral field favorite. Look for Ohio State's experience and depth to once again prove to be too much for the Badgers to handle. Lay the points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State.

The set-up: Georiga is 11-1 and LSU is 12-0. Whoever wins will be off to the College Championship round. The Tigers have a dynamic QB in Heisman Joe Burrows, who has thrown for almost 2,000 yards in his last five games alone. This is the Bulldogs third straight SEC Championship Game appearance though and I believe their experience and depth will take this contest down to the wire. Georgia QB Jake Fromm has five TD passes and zero INT's in his last two SEC Champ games vs. Auburn and Alabama. Georgia's defense is conceding only ten points per game this year as well.

The pick: Ed Oregon's team has been a big surprise this year, but I think its lack of overall experience in this big situation will in fact come back to bite it here. Georgia is 3-0 ATS in its last three as a dog, while LSU is only 1-4 ATS in its last five off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival. I think the outright is possible, but in the end I'm grabbing the points.

9* PLAY-BOOK on Georgia.

The set-up: Oregon lost a game to ASU a couple of weeks ago. The Ducks likely won't be invited to the Playoff Championship with a win today, but Utah likely would. The Ducks are out to play spoiler and to pull off a big upset in the Pac 12 Championship and in a contest which I see coming down to the wire, I'm going to ultimately recommend to grab the points. Utah's only loss came against USC and since then it's been pretty much perfect, led by a tough defense. Oregon lost to Auburn in its opener and then posted nine straight wins. And with what I feel to be the best QB in the conference in Justin Hebert leading the way, I absolutely believe that the Ducks have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one (also note that the Ducks rank 10th in the nation in rushing defense.) 

The pick: Utah's been unbelievable, but it's had to "bend" and not "break" a couple of times (allowing 30 points to USC and 28 to Washington.) Additionally note that the Utes are just 1-3 ATS in their last four played on a neutral field, while the Ducks are 4-1 ATS this season following a home victory. I think that matters here as I look for Oregon to at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Oregon.

The set-up: Utah comes in off a 35-7 road win over Arizona. At 10-1, the Utes are now getting ready to play in the Pac 12 game and while I'm obviously not calling for an outright upset, I do think that the stage is set for 5-6 Colorado, which enters off one of the schools biggets upsets ever in taking down Washington 20-14 as a double-digit underdog for its second win in a row. 

The pick: I think Colorado senior QB Steven Montez can keep pace with Tyler Huntley and the home side today. Utah gets caught looking past its opponent today and I look for the hungry visiting side to take advantage and post at least the solid cover with the large spread it's been afforded tonight.  

9* PLAY-BOOK on Colorado.

The set-up: BC won't be guaranteed a bowl game if it wins today, but at 6-6, it'll become "eligible." Pittsburgh is 7-4 on the year and it's already thinking about its bowl contest. Pitt comes in flat as well after its 28-0 loss to VT last weekend. The Eagles defense is admittedly terrible, but there are two key players out on the Pitt offense today, which leaves the door open for the BC defense to step up and perform in this crucial contest. Overall BC's 457.7 YPG on offense rank it 23rd in the country. 

The pick: Pitt was in the ACC Championship Game last year, but the Panthers won't be making a repeat in that contest this season. Last time out Panthers' QB Kenny Pickett posted a QB rating of 4.8. Panthers' are hurt here today with the absence of RB Todd Sibley Jr and WR Maurice French. Pitt's defense is going to be tested here today and note that the Panthers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with a losing road record. In a game which comes down to the wire, let's grab up all these points.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on Boston College.

The set-up: App State is 10-1. Troy is 5-6. At 6-6, the Trojans wouldn't even necessarily be guarateed a bowl spot, but with a victory over the Mountaineers as part of that resume, they'd almost assuredly "get the call." App State has won three straight, while Troy's two game win streak came to an end with a loss to Louisiana Lafayette last weekend. Troy though has covered its last two in this series as a double-digit dog and with a bowl berth on the line, I think the Trojans can keep this one competitive late. App State is getting balanced production on both sides of the ball, led by QB Zac Thomas. 

The pick: Troy has been much better at home than on the road (lost 53-3 at the Cajuns last weekend, but allowed an average of only 20 points in winning two straight previous home contests over South Alabama and Georgia Southern.) The Trojans won't be scared to throw here either, as QB Kaleb Barker has 3,300 passing yards this season with 30 TD's and nine picks. Note as well that App State is already 0-3 ATS this year off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival, while Troy is 4-1 ATS in its last five off a road loss. Expect a war unitl the end and grab the points with the Trojans.

10* BEST OF THE BEST on Troy.

The set-up: 3-8 Bowling Green meets 6-5 Buffalo with nothing on the line. Yes the Bulls could be eligible for a slightly better bowl game with a win today, but after becoming eligible last time out, a mental lapse is inevitable in my opinion. Bowling Green is just 3-8 and can't even use the role of spoiler as motivation today. Bowling Green was killed 66-24 by Ohio last time out and I have a hard time seeing it mustering that much offense this time around. Buffalo smashed Toledo 49-30 in its last game. 

The pick: The Bulls really do need one more win to solidy their positioning, but this is a contest in which it can sit back and control the tempo. Bowling Green is a run first offense and Buffalo ranks in the top ten in stopping the rush. Also note that four of Bowling Green's five games on the road this year have fallen under the number already. I expect a low-scoring defensive battle this time around.

10* MAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Bowling Green/Buffalo.

The set-up: Mississippi State is 5-6 and it needs to win this game to become eligible. Ole Miss is 4-7 and it's now out to play the role of spoiler. The Egg Bowl looks like a "shootout" out to me this year. Mississippi comes in off a game in which its defense just allowed 58 points to LSU. 

The pick: Mississippi State completely dominated this game last year, winning 35-3. This year Ole Miss is giving up nearly 300 yards per game through the air, so QB Tommy Stevens is primed for a big performance on the National stage in my opinion. Note that Ole Miss has seen the total soar over in four of five already this year after playing a game at home, while Mississippi State has seen the total eclipse the number in three of four this season following a SU victory. This number is a tad low.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Mississippi/Mississippi State.

The set-up: Ohio has everything to play for here at 5-6, but I look for the home side to make it tougher on the Bobcats than what this spread would suggest. The Zips don't want to go winless this year and last week they almost pulled off a massie upset, but they'd eventually fall 20-17 to Miami Ohio. Ohio is the much better team on paper, but the Zips have been playing much better of late and I like that progression (on both sides of the ball), to carry over in their final game in front of the home town crowd. 

The pick: Additionally note that Ohio is a poor 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a road favorite and only 1-3 ATS in its last four off a double digit road victory. Akron on the other hand is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a cover where it last as the underdog. A great situational play in my opinion. Grab the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on Akron.

The set-up: Washington is 6-4 and bowl eligible, while Colorado is 4-6 and desperate for a vitory here to keep its chances alive awith only two games to play. Washington has been hit or miss this year, as losses to Utah and Oregon State is expected, while a setback to the Cal is now considered a poor one. 

The pick: Colorado has some big wins over Nebraska and Arizona State, but it's also been extremely inconsistent from game to game as well. But the Buffs have been a "different" team at home, having beaten Nebraska and Stanford (and they haven't suffered a home setback by more than one score.) Also note that Colorado QB Steven Montez has a 139 passer rating at home with ten TD's and three INT's, compared to a 109.6 rating on the road with a 4:7 TD:INT. At home the Buffs are averaging 11.5 more points per game on offense (26.8 at home vs. 15.3 on the road) and allowing 8.2 fewer points per game on the defensive side. I won't call for the outright, but the stage is certainly set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.

10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado.

The set-up: Both teams are eligible for a bowl. Liberty is 6-4 and Virginia is 7-3. I'm expecting a hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring game between these two non-conference opponents, each looking to improve its bowl positioning. The Cavs won this game last year, but neither team was able to break the 400 yard barrier on the offensive side. Virginia also has to be wary here not to "look ahead" to its game vs. Virginia Tech in its regular season finale (note that three of Virginia's last five wins came by single digits.) 

The pick: Liberty QB Stephen Calvert has 23 TD's and just three INT's this season, but I think he'll have a difficult time here from this aggressive Virginia pass rush that can not afford to look past its opponent today. Note as well that Liberty has seen the total dip under the number in all four games it's played in already this year as the underdog, while Virginia has seen the total dip below in its last four after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. This total is a tad high.

10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Liberty/Virginia.

The set-up: At 4-6 and with only two games left, Colorado has to win out to become eligible. Colorado State has won three of its past four games and it enters with momentum to face a Wyoming side which started the year, but which enters having dropped three of its last five. Having already earned eligibility, the Cowboys are going to have their hands full today again in my opinion vs. this desperate visting side. The Rams lost at home to Air Force in their last game, but they've won two in a row on the road. QB Patrick O'Brien has led CSU to score at least 35 points in three of his past four games.  

The pick: The Cowboys once rosey start is firmly in the rear view mirror now. Note that Wyoming's secondary has completely fallen off the map now as it allows 281.2 yards per game through the air. Finally note that CSU is a sharp 10-2 ATS in its last 12 following a double-digit home loss. I think the outright is possible, but in the end I'll recommend grabbing the points. 

10* BLOOD-BATH on Colorado State.

The set-up: Georgia Tech is going to try and play the role of spoiler here, but I like the 4-6 NC State Wolfpack to get one more victory to eligiblity after tonight. NC State has lost four in a row, most recently a 34-20 setback to Louisville. Tech has lost four straight as well, most recently a 45-0 shutout loss at Virginia Tech. NC State though actually outgained Louisville 377 to 326 last week, but it was unable to convert red zone chances. But a date vs. the inept Yellow Jackets is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked finally in my opinion. 

The pick: NC State is the better team on paper and I think it'll be the much better team on the field of play as well. Finally note that Georgia Tech is 0-7 ATS in its last seven at home, while NC State is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four road games vs. teams with a losing home record. For all the reasons listed above, play on NC State.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State.

The set-up: Buffalo's three-game winning run came to an end in it's 30-27 loss at Kent State last weekend. The Bulls had a 27-6 lead in that one as well with 11:18 left to play, but uncharacteristically fell apart and lost. Now at 5-5, time is running out to punch their eligibility. Toledo on the other hand gained eligibility and the lost to Northern Illinois 31-28 last weekend. Toledo started backup QB Eli Peters in that one and he's also expected to get the call here. The Rockets of course would love to improve their bowl standing, but after last week's loss, conference title contention is now definitely out of the question. Toledo is also the MACs top rushing team and its No. 1 RB Bryant Koback was taken out of the NIU game with a lower leg injury.

The pick: The Bulls suffered a rare mental lapse last week, but I think they bounce back in this "must win" scenario. Before the disastrous third quarter Buffalo held Kent State to just six points. With all of the issues and injuries Toledo is having on the offensive side of the ball, I look for the home side to take full advantage and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points.

10* MAC-SPLOSION on Buffalo.

The set-up: Northern Illinois needs to run the table to become eligible. EMU is 5-5 and needs one more win to go Bowling. The Eagles killed lowly Akron 42-14 last weekend, but I think they'll have their hands full with this no surging Huskies side which enters off an impressive 31-28 win over Toledo to keep their slim chances alive. EMU is led by QB Mike Glass III and RB Shaq Vann, while NIU leans more on its run game than passing game. The Huskies are led by QB Ross Bowers, who has seven TD's and eight INT's thus far. But NIU RB Tre Harbison is a force to be reckoned with and I think he'll be a difference maker tonight (had 158 rushing yards last weekned.) 

The pick: Eastern Michigan is also only 1-5 ATS in its last six off a win by ten points or more over a conference rival, while NIU is 5-1 ATS in its last six off an upset win as a road underdog. I thik that "home field" is significant in this matchup, so I'm laying the points.

10* MAC-DESTRUCTION on NIU.

The set-up: USC is 6-4 and bowl eligible. Cal is 5-4 and in need of one more victory. If not now, when? The oddsmakers think this one will be close and so do I. The Cal QB situation got a boost from the return of Devon Modster last weekend and I expect that to pay dividends tonight. Note as well that USC comes into this one with 21 players on the injured list, with QB Kedon Slovis also listed as questionable. That means that backup QB Matt Fink will get the nod here and he's just 46 of 70 with four TD and four INT in limited time this season. 

The pick: Last week Cal's defense stepped up in the team's impressive 33-20 win over Wazzou. Cal is poised to pull off the upset here vs. this Trojans team that's down to its backup QB. Additionally note that USC is just 5-10 ATS in its last 15 on the road (including only 1-3 ATS this season), while Cal is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a home underdog. Don't be shocked if Cal pulls off the outright (that said, grab the points!)

8* play on California.

The set-up: Utah is 8-1 and I think it'll get caught looking past the 4-5 UCLA Bruins. And UCLA comes in under the radar after three straight wins. The Utes have won three straight and their tough defense will be put to the test today from a Bruins' offense which has posted 35.6 PPG over its last three. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been great of late and I think that progression continues here. 

The pick: The Utes held on for a 33-28 win in Washington, but I think their concentration wanes just enough here to allow the hungry visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. The Bruins are 3-1 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS vs. the conference, while the Utes are just 1-4 ATS in their last five off a road victory. Look for the "hungrier" team to keep this one interesting until the final moments and grab the points.

8* play on UCLA.

The set-up: Both teams are equally as "hungry" for a victory here. Louisville is 5-4 and NC State is 4-5. NC State though has the home field advantage today and in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I'll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Louisville was crushed by Miami last week, while the Wolfpack come in having lost three in a row. The Cardinals average 31.1 PPG, but they unfortunatley allow 34.1. Micale Cunningham passed for 219 yards and two touchdowns, but note that he's listed as "questionable" for this contest. 

The pick: Last week NC State was blown out at home by Clemson, but I think it'll bounce back here. Overall the Wolfpack average 23.2 PPG, while allowing 28.7. However note that NC State is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a double-digit loss, while the Cardinals are a poor 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a losing record. The only loss at home for NC State this year came last week to No. 5 ranked Clemson. The Wolfpack are 4-1 at home this year; look for the record to get added to here (but grab the points in case!)

8* play on NC State.

The set-up: The 4-5 South Florida Bulls have their work cut out for them this week to upset the 8-1 Bearcats and keep their slim bowl hopes alive. The Bulls are well coached though and they have a significant home field advantage. Note as well that USF has given up only 18.3 PPG over its last three games. 

The pick: THe Bearcats rely on their strong run game, which also plays into our hands here by grabbing the significant amount of points. Additionally note that the Bearcats are a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight on the road, while USF is a perfect 3-0 ATS already this season after a SU loss. No outright, but much closer than expected. Grab the points.

8* play on USF.

The set-up: I recently saw on Twitter someone posting a $5 bet on Rutgers to win this game SU at 5000 to 1 odds. Clearly I'm not going to suggest the same thing. I'd say, save your money and buy a couple hot dogs instead. But that said, these Ohio State spreads are now officially out of control in my opinion. Yes Ohio State is going to win this game yes the Buckeyes will win big. However, I love Rutgers here to comfortably sneak in through the back door. Last week Ohio State smashed Maryland 73-14, but I don't see the team running up the score on the road in back-to-back weeks. 

The pick: The bad news for Rutgers? It's 0-6 in conference play. The good news? It's 2-3 at home this season. Quarterback Johnny Langan is pathetic, but the strength on offense does lie in the run game. I believe this also plays into our hands, as the home side will be dedicated to the run throughout. Additionally note that Ohio State is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after a two-game home stand, while Rutgers is 3-1 ATS in its last four following its bye week. Grab all these points.

8* play on Rutgers.

The set-up:

The pick:

8* play on Ball State.

The set-up: WVU won this game by a score of 35-6 last year, it's third straight in the series. But that was then and this is now. K-State is ranked No. 24, but after becoming bowl eligible it lost to Texas 27-24 last weekend and I think it gets caught looking past the Mountaineers. WVU's bowl aspirations are firmly on the line here. The Mountaineers are desperate after losing five straight. WVU will be looking to keep this one on the ground and try to grind out a victory here vs. a K-State side which allows 172 rushing yards per game. WVU has two strong backs in Leddie Brown and Kennedy McCoy. 

The pick: The Wildcats have bigger aspirations than just finishing with six wins, but I think they get caught looking past their opponent today to their upcoming bigger contest vs. Virginia Tech. WVU is also a strong 9-3 ATS in its last 12 vs. teams with winning records, while K-State is 0-3 ATS this year after a two-game road trip. Expect the home side to stumble again here and look for the visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

10* play on WVU. 

The set-up: Both teams comes in off losses. Fresno State fell to Utah State and it's now 4-5, while 7-2 SDSU lost to Nevada. Last year the Bulldogs won this game by a score of 23-14. But Fresno State is running out of time and after back-to-back games in which its lost in the final seconds by FG, I think the Bulldogs finally get the job done here. Overall Fresno State averages 34.3 points behind QB Jore Renya, while allowing 32.4 PPG on the defensive side. 

The pick: SDSU only allows 14.4 PPG, but it only averages 20.8. Aztecs' QB Ryan Agnew has ten TD's and four INT's. The Aztecs are a run oriented offense, but I think they'll have a hard time keeping up with their high-flying opponent today. Additionally note that Fresno State is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 37 points or ore in its previous outing, while SDSU is 0-3 ATS in its last three after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games. Look for the Bulldogs' high-powered offense to be the difference tonight. 

10* BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST on Fresno State.

The set-up: UNC is 4-5 and it comes out of its bye week in need of a victory to keep its bowl aspirations alive. The Panthers became bowl eligible last time out by holding on for a 20-12 win over Georgia Tech last time out and I think a predictable mental letdown is imminent here. Last year the Tar Heels won a 38-35 shootout at home in this game and I expect a similarily hard-fought and ultimately competitive battle here as well. UNC has to be feeling confident as well with QB Sam Howell, who has 26 TD passes and only five INT's. So far UNC is averaging 27.6 PPG and conceding 27.1. 

The pick: The Panthers aren't the greatest on offense, but htey make up for it on the defensive side by conceding only 20.1 PPG. I'll point out though that UNC is 5-1 ATS in its last six after allowing 37 points or more in its last game, while Pittsburgh is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite. The conditions are right for a SU upset, but in the end I'll recommend to grab the points. 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on North Carolina.

The set-up: NIU is 3-6 overall and 2-3 in MAC play. It sits one game behind Toledo. The Rockets have won two in a row and they're now bowl eligible because of it. The Huskies' offense revolves around RB Tre Harbison, who has 741 rushing yards and seven TD's.  The Rockets are allowing almost 200 yards per game on the ground. 

The pick: Toldeo got a break out game from Shakif Seymour, as he'd explode for 175 yards and two TD's in the win over the Golden Flashes. I don't foresee Seymour duplicating that feat here. NIU is also 7-4 ATS in its last 11 as a road underdog (including 3-1 ATS this season), while Toledo is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine off a home win vs. a conference rival (including 0-2 ATS this year.) I like NIU's run game to be the main story line in tomorrow's summaries.

10* DESTRUCTION on Northern Illinois.

The set-up: The Western Michigan Broncos are 6-4 on the year after winning two straight. They're now bowl eligible after holding on for a 35-31 win at Ball State last weekend. Ohio though is just 4-5 on the year (3-2 in Conference action) and it'll be risking life and limb here to try and secure a victory with time now running out to do so. Last year the Bobcats broke a four game slide in this series with a convincing 59-14 win over the Broncos. Overall WMU averages 36 PPG and it allows 26.

The pick: Ohio averages 29 PPG and it allows 29 PPG. The Bobcats lost to division leader Miami Ohio last time out, but I think they'll take care of business here at home vs. this now contented WMU side. Note as well that WMU is a poor 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as a dog (including 0-3 ATS this year), while Ohio is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with a winning record. I'm banking on the desperate home side to step up here and deliver the goods.

10* DESTRUCTION on Ohio.

The set-up: Clearly I'm not calling for the outright upset here, but NC State can't afford to take the foot off the gas despite defeat being inevitable here. The Wolfpack are 4-4 and while this game is a "write off" as far as conceivably pulling off a SU victory, I do think it'll put up more than enough of a fight to easily get the job done with the ample points they've been afforded in this matchup. Clemson most recently annihilated the Wofford Terriers 59-14. 

The pick: But the Wolfpack come in hungry to atone for a 44-10 loss to Wake Forest in their most recent action. Both of NC State's wins over its last five games have come at home. The Wolfpack are also 25-10 ATS in their last 35 after posting less than 275 total yards in their past contest. Expect this one to be much closer than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.

8* play on NC State.

The set-up: Notre Dame just became eligible after its 21-20 win over Virginia Tech last weekend and I expect a bit of a letdown here. Duke is 4-4 and it's lost three of its last four. Clearly the Blue Devils will be risking life and limb here to pull off the upset with just a handful of games left. These are in fact two evenly matched sides, so in a contest which I think'll be decided late, I'm going to grab the handful of points. Note that the Irish have lost two of three on the road already this year and their one win over Louisville was hardly impressive.

The pick: Duke returns home after two straight on the road and it's also had its bye week off to prepare for this one. From a situational stand point, this one sets up beautifully for the home side. Additionally note that the Irish are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six on the road, while the Blue Devils are 8-1 ATS in their last nine following their bye week. Duke destroyed the Hokies by 35 earlier in the year, so the outright upset is in fact possible here as well. That said, I'm grabbing the points in the end.

10* play on Duke.

The set-up: UConn is going to lose this game badly, but I think it'll put up enough of a fight vs. a Bearcats team that's won six in a row and is already eligible. The Huskies come in off a 56-10 loss to Navy, but I don't think the home side will try to the score of this one up. QB Jack Zergiotis went 16 for 34, for 205 yards, one touchdown, and two INT's.

The pick: Cincinnati is rolling, but it has to be somewhat concerned after last week's 46-43 home win over ECU. Quarterback Desmond Ridder went 12 for 24, for 161 yards, one touchdown, and two INT's. Additionally note that the Huskies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after a loss by 35 points or more, while Cincinnati is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten off a win vs. a conference rival. After last week's "close call," I'm expecting the Bearcats to play a bit more conservatively in this game which they know they can control from the moment it starts. Grab the points.

8* play on Connnecticut.

The set-up: Louisville is 5-3 and Miami is 5-4. It's a big game, as the winner becomes bowl eligible. And as such, I don't think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Louisville has been off since October 26th when it beat UVA 28-21. Will rest lead to rust here? The Cardinals play three of their next four on the road and I think this one sets up as a classic "trap/letdown" spot. The Cards only had 360 total yards in that victory, but the defense came up big by forcing two turnovers. In all the Cardinals average 32.8 PPG and allow 31.9. 

The pick: Miami has won two straight, most recently a 27-10 victory over FSU last weekend. QB Jarren Williams now has ten TD's and three INT's on the year. The Hurricanes defense was particularly sharp though, posting a season-high nine sacks. The Hurricanes average 26.8 PPG and they allow only 18.6. Additionally note that Louisville is still just 7-14 ATS in its last 21 vs. the conference, while Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home favorite of seven points or less. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.

8* play on Miami Florida.

The set-up: Illinois is 5-4 and MSU is 4-4. These teams are moving in opposite directions and I expect that trend to continue here. Illinois has won three straight and Michigan State has dropped three in a row. Overall the Fighting Illini look solid offensively, averaging 30 PPG, behind 169 rushing yards per contest, good enough for 69th in the country. 

The pick: The Spartans on the other hand have scored just 17 points combined over their straight losses. Most recently MSU fell 28-7 to Penn State. Additionally note that Michigan State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss, while the Illini are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 after playing at home. No outright, but expect this one to come right down to the wire. Grab the points.

8* play on Illinois.

The set-up: At 7-1, Wake Forest is eligible and content. At 5-3, the Hokies need just one more win to become bowl eligible. The Demon Deacons enter off a 44-10 win over NC State and I think they finally take the foot off the gas here. Overall Wake averages 38 PPG. 

The pick: Virginia Tech's three game win streak came to an end in its 21-20 loss to Notre Dame last weekend. The Demon Deacons have not done well in this spot for bettors though, going a poor 1-3 ATS in their last four as a road favorite and a poor 1-4 ATS in their last five off a home win by 17 points or more. Conversely, this is a spot in which VT has excelled in by going 7-3 ATS in its last ten as an underdog, including 3-0 ATS this season. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

8* play on Virginia Tech.

The set-up: Florida State is 4-5 and BC is 5-4. The Eagles can reach eligibility with a victory today and I expect the home side to deliver the goods. FSU made a coaching change mid week after its loss to Miami last weekend, while the Eagles come in off a massive win over Syracuse. How will FSU respond after firing Willie Taggart? No one knows for sure, but Odell Haggins, the former assistant now has his hands full. Last week the FSU secondary was crushed for 313 yards for a Hurricanes pass attack which is pretty lacklustre. The Seminoles also posted only 203 yards of offense themselves. 

The pick: BC smashed the Orange 58-27 last weekend, running the ball for 496 yards. AJ Dillon had three TDs on 242 rushing yards off 35 carries, while QB Dennis Grosel had 195 passing yards and three TD's. Note as well that FSU is a terrible 6-15 ATS in its last 21 vs. conference opponents and only 2-9 ATS In its last 11 road games, while BC is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 vs. the conference. This one has home side blowout written all over it.

8* play on Boston College.

The set-up: Washington has was seven straight in this series, including a decisive 42-23 win last year. Suffice it to say, I expect that trend to continue here as well. The Huskies are 5-4 and they're desperate for a win here after falling 33-28 at home to Utah last weekend. The Beavers are 4-4 and they come in off an upset 56-38 win over on the road over Arizona. In fact note that Washington has lost back-to-back games, but over some pretty stiff competition in No. 12 Oregon and No. 9 Utah. 

The pick: Oregon State allows 254 passing yards per game and Huskies' QB Jacob Eason has 2,297 passing yards with 20 TD's to just five INT's. The Huskies allow 257 passing yards and Beavers' QB Jake Luton has 19 TD's to just one INT. However note that the Beavers are a sub-par 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games, while the Huskies are interestingly 4-1 ATS in their last five after posting less than 100 rushing yards in their last outing. After losing two straight, expect Washington to lay everything on the line here and after winning two in a row, look for the Beavers to take a mental step backwards. Lay the points.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on Washington.

The set-up: Louisiana Lafayette has won six in a row and it's now bowl eligible after laying the hammer down on Texas State last week. But on the short week here and facing a 4-4 Coastal Carolina side, I think the Ragin Cajuns finally have a bit of a mental letdown in this spot. Coastal Carolina is coming off a much needed win over Troy and I like the home side to build off that victory and give their visiting side everything it can handle. 

The pick: QB Bryce Carpenter has been hit or miss for the Chanticleers, but Coastal Carolina is still putting up decent offensive numbers. Louisiana Lafayette's offensive and defensive numbers are much better than its hosts, but this a situationally based selection, which I believe highly favors the home side. I think the Cajuns have a letdown after six straight wins and with their eligibility achieved last weekend. Coastal Carolina on the other hand still needs two more wins to become eligible. Additionally note that Louisiana Lafayette is 0-3 ATS in its last three after a cover as a double digit favorite, while Coastal Carolina is 3-1 ATS in its last four off an upset win as an underdog. Grab the points and expect a battle until the final whistle.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Coastal Carolina.

The set-up: Miami Ohio won last year's contest 30-28 and I expect a similar hard-fought and ultimately higher-scoring game here as well. That victory snapped a five-game win streak in the series for Ohio. Miami Ohio is 4-4 and 3-1 in Conference play and it comes in confident after winning its last two games, including a 23-16 road victory over Kent State in its most recent. Ohio is also 4-4 overall and 3-1 in MAC play, most recently pulling away for a 34-21 victory over Ball State. The winner will take over first place in the MAC. Brett Gabbert is the QB for the RedHawks and he has 1360 passing yards and four receivers with 100 receiving yards. Note that the Bobcats allow 446.5 YPG on the defensive side. 

The pick: Ohio though has scored 78 points over its last two games (both victories) and I expect the home side to open up the playbook and push the pace again here as well. Bobcats' QB Nathan Rourke has 1,743 passing yards with ten TD's and five INT's so far. Note that Miami Ohio has seen the total go over the number in its last four after two straight wins over a conference rival, while Ohio has seen the total go over in 11 of its last 13 as a home favorite. This number is a tad low.

10* TOTAL BEATDOWN on the OVER Miami Ohio/Ohio.

The set-up: Both teams comes off their respective bye weeks. Ball State is 4-4 and in dire need of a couple more victories. WMU is 5-4 and it definitely wants to punch its ticket to eligiblity here and now. Ball State most recently got killed by Ohio 34-21, while the Broncos smashed Bowling Green 49-10 in their most recent action. The Cardinals are led by QB Drew Pitt, who has 17 TD's and six INT's. Ball State though ranks tenth in the MAC with just 11 sacks all year. 

The pick: The Broncos still have a shot at winning their division, but with their final two games of the season on the road, this has become a "must win" contest for Western Michigan. The Broncos have two experienced seniors on offense in QB Jon Wassink and RB leVante Bellamy (Wassink leads the conference with 2,273 passing yards.) Also note that WMU's defense is tied for first int he conference with 29 sacks so far. In this crucial game, I look for the home side to take advantage.

8* DESTRUCTION on Western Michigan.

The set-up: Toledo can become eligible with a victory today, while Kent State enters at 3-5. Both teams enter struggling, with Toledo having lost two of its last three, and Kent State having lost three of its last four. Kent State has faced some stiff competition this year and Dustin Crum has been decent under center for the Flashes. Toledo's strength on the defensive side is its pass defense though. 

The pick: Toledo enters off a 3-point OT win over EMU and I think that Eli Peters and company keep the foot on the gas in front of the home town crowd. Kent STate has struggled in this spot as well, going just 11-14 ATS in its last 25 as an underdog and only 1-3 ATS in its last four after a close lss by seven points or less to a conference rival. Conversely note that the Rockets have excelled in this position for bettors, going 9-2 ATS their last 11 as a home favorite. This one has "blowout" written all over it. 

8* DESTRUCTION on Toledo.

The set-up: The San Jose State Spartans are 4-4. Note that that's more victories than their last two season's combined. San Jose State needs two more wins to become eligible and I expect the home side to open up the playbook as it looks to pull off the upset. Boise State is 6-1 and ranked No. 21 in the country, but it'll be out to rebound here after a 28-25 loss to BYU last weekend. 

The pick: San Jose State QB Josh Love has been "under the radar" all season, as he comes in ranked No. 2 in the conference in passing yards and in eight games he's only thrown three INT's. The Spartans though are allowing the second most yards in the conference defensively (442.9), so Love has had to push the pace almost every weekend. Boise State has seen the total go over in eight of its last 12 on the road, while San Jose State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four after a road victory. The numbers and situation point to the over as the correct call in this one.

10* play on the OVER Boise State/San Jose State.

The set-up: Both teams are desperate for a win here. UVA is 5-3 and UNC is 4-4. The Cavs enter off a 28-21 loss to Louisville. Despite the hiccup, UVA still averages 30 PPG, while allowing only 20.8. QB Bryrce Perkins had 233 yards and a TD last week, while RB Wayn Taulapapa had 54 rushing yards and two TD's. 

The pick: UNC lost 43-41 to Virginia Tech two weeks ago and then bounced back with a 20-17 victory over Duke last weekend. UNC posted 432 total yards of offense, including 205 on the ground, led by Javonte Williams with 111 rushing yards. The Tar Heels average 27.5 PPG and they allow 25.8. UVA though is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a road loss, while UNC is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home favorite. I think the Tar Heels struggle vs. this tough UVA defense. Clearly the outright isn't out of the question, but grab as many points as you can in the end.

10* play on UVA.

The set-up: The Bears are 6-1 and now eligible and while I'm not calling for an outright win here, I do think that the 3-5 ECU Pirates won't go down without a fight this evening. The Pirates also play with the added incentive of "revenge" after they were humbled 56-6 to Cincinnati last season. The Bearcats were last in action when they posted the 24-13 win over Tulsa to become eligible. So will rest lead to rust? I don't think it's going to help the Bearcats here. 

The pick: Yes ECU is 0-4 in confernece play, but it's faced some heavyweights early in UCF and Navy. The Bearcats average 28 PPG and they allow 20, while the Pirates average 21 PPG, while allowing 28.5. However note that the Bearcats are a poor 2-5 ATS in their last seven on the road, wihle the home team is 6-1 ATS the last seven in this series. Expect the hungry revenge minded home side to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

8* play on ECU. 

The set-up: With a victory today UL Lafayette will move from 5-2 to 6-2 and therefore become eligible to play in a bowl game. Texas State is 2-5 and while it would love to draw motivation of playing "spoiler," I just don't see that happening today. With App State's outright loss last night, UL Lafayette will be extra motivated to run the table now as it looks to meet up with the Mountaineers in a revenge scenario in the championship game. 

The pick: The Bobcats are averaging only 18.1 PPG and QB Gresch Hensen will once again be sidelined with concussion after missing last week's loss to Arkansas State. The Cajuns have plenty of motivating factors working in their favor here, but also note that they're 4-1 ATS in their last five coference games and 4-0 ATS vs. teams with losing records, while Texas State is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four conference contests. In my opinion, this one has "blowout" written all over it. Lay the points.

8* play on Louisiana Lafayette.

The set-up: I like 5-3 Pittsburgh to come in and deliver the goods with its sixth win of the year vs. 2-5 Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets come in off their bye week, while Pittsburgh enters off a blowout loss to Miami. Note though that the Panthers are 3-0 ATS on the road this year and they're 2-1 ATS at Boyd Dodd Stadium since 2012. Pittsburgh is ranked 43rd in the country in pass defense, but it won't have to worry too much vs. the Yellow Jackets triple option attack. 

The pick: Georgia Tech allows 220 yards on the ground this week, so Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett can take advantage of what the defense gives him this week and get back to some play action as the game wears on. Note that Pittsburgh is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss vs. a conference rival, while Georgia Tech is 0-4 ATS in its last four after playing with two weeks or more of rest. I'm banking on the Panthers pulling away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover and their elusive sixth victory.

8* play on Pittsburgh.

The set-up: Liberty is 5-3 and UMass is 1-7. The Minutemen were just crushed by lowly UConn last time out and while they'd love to play "spoiler" to the Flames here, who need just one more win to become eligible, I just don't see it happening. Liberty comes in off a humbling 44-34 loss to Rutgers as a favorite last time out and it'll not be taking anything for granted after that embarrassing performance. The Flames have to contain UMass RB Bilal Ally, but beyond him the Minutemen are thin. 

The pick: On the flip side, Flames' QB Stephen Calvert will have no issues moving the ball vs. this porous UMass secondary (note that Calvert has 2,164 passing yards, with 16 TD's and only three INT's.) UMass is also just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home, while Liberty is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four after allowing 200 yards or more in its previous game. I like Liberty to come in focussed and to dominate in all three phases. Lay the points.

8* play on Liberty.

The set-up: UCF is 6-2 and eligible for a bowl, but 3-5 Houston has its work cut out for it here as it lays everything on the line over the last month to get the job done. The Cougars looked good though against No. 16 SMU last week, despite eventually falling 34-31. Houston averages 30.9 PPG, but it allows 31.1. QB Clayton Tune is finally starting to look better though after having to fill in for injured starter D'Eriq King. 

The pick: UCF comes in off a 62-21 blowout win over Temple and I think it comes in a tiny bit complacent here vs. its lowly opponent. The Knights average 46.6 PPG and they allow 21.6. Clearly on paper QB Dillon Gabriel and the UCF have a signficant advantage, but note that the Knights are a terrible 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a home favorite of 21.5 points or more. Conversely, note that the Cougars are a solid 4-2 ATS already this season as a dog and 3-0 ATS in their last three off a close loss by seven points or less vs. a conference rival. No outright, but grab the points and expect a competitive battle. 

8* play on Houston.

The set-up: Navy just became eligible after its 41-38 win over Tulane last weekend. UConn earned its first victory of the year in last week's 56-35 win over UMass. Malcom Perry and the Midshipmen are back in the bowls this season and after punching that crucial/important win, I believe that Navy does in fact come out a bit flat in this one. The Midshipmen average 37.9 PPG and they allow 19.7. 

The pick: UConn only averages 21.2 PPG, while allowing 37.8, but last week it posted 539 total yards of offense. Additionally note that Navy is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road favorite, while the Huskies are 3-1 ATS in their last four as a home dog in the 21 1/2 to 28 points range. I'm banking on a closer than expected battle here, grab the points.

10* TRAIN-WRECK on Connecticut.

The set-up: West Virginia is 3-4 and running out of time to become eligible. An outright win over 7-0 Baylor isn't likely going to happen, but I do definitely feel that the conditions are correct for a tighter battle than what this spread would suggest. The Mountaineers have lost three straight, but they come in off a much needed bye week and I think the extra time off to prepare for this one will help them in keeping this one relatively close until the final moments. 

The pick: The Mountaineers can score, but their defense has been terrible. The Bears are one of the highest scoring teams in the country, but with another "cream puff" with TCU up next, I think this does in fact set up as a bit of a "trap" for the home side as well. Finally note that WVU is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more straight losses vs. the spread, while Baylor is just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 at home and a poor 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. No outright, but closer than expected.

9* PLAY-BOOK on West Virginia. 

The set-up: Georgia Southern won't be going down without a fight vs. No. 20 Appalachian State. The Eagles enter off a 41-7 win over New Mexico State, while the 7-0 Mountaineers defeated South Alabama 30-3 last weekend. Georgia Southern's triple option is going to be something a bit different for App State today though. The Mountaineers average 140 rushing yards per game and the Eagles average 259 rushing yards per game.

The pick: Georiga SOuthern's defense is under-rated as well in my opinion, allowing only 209 passing yards per game, so QB Zac Thomas is going to have his hands full. Note that Georgia Southern is 4-1 ATS in its last five after scoring 37 points or more in its last game, while App State is already 0-2 ATS this year after a win by 21 points or more. No outright, but closer than what this spread would suggest.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Southern.

The set-up: Cal is 4-3 and desperate for a couple more victories. Utah is 6-1 and already bowl eligible. Utah though looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after getting its sixth win of the year in a 21-3 win over Arizona State. 

The pick: Cal has lost three in a row, but it's looked better of late. The Bears only concede 18 PPG, so they have the defense to hang with the home side today. Additionally note that Cal is 10-4 ATS in its last four and 5-1 ATS in its last six after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games, while the Utes are 0-2 ATS in their last two after allowing six points or less in their last outing. I'm grabbing the points. 

10* play on California 

The set-up: Obviously I'm not calling for an outright victory, but I do believe that the stage is set for BC to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Dennis Grosel ha had to fill the shoes of starter Anthony Brown, but thankfully the offense revolves mostly around RB AJ Dillon. BC is coming off a big win and it's also fresh out of its bye week. Overall the Eagles averages 34.6 PPG and they allow 28.1. 

The pick: The Tigers are 7-0 and ranked No. 4 in the country. On the year they're averaging 40 points and conceding only 12. Clemson leans heavily on RB Travis Etienne, who averages almost 8 yards per carry. It's interesting to note though that Clemson is just 2-5 ARTS in its last seven at home in this series, while BC is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. teams with winning records. Additionally note that the Eagles have failed to cover in just eight of their last 29 games overall. No outright, but expect a solid cover from a good team that won't be going down today without a fight.

8* play on Boston College. 

The set-up: Memphis is 6-1 and bowl eligible, while Tulsa needs to string some wins together at 2-5. The Tigers lost their first game of the year, but have since reeled of six straight to become eligible, including a 47-17 victory over Tulane last time out. But with a game against Conference leader SMU up next weekend, I have a hard time seeing Memphis not getting caught "looking ahead" to that much more high-profile contest. Memphis' QB Brady White threw for five TD's in his last game, but I think he and the rest of his team do indeed come in complacent here after their sixth win of the year. 

The pick: Tulsa is averaging only 21.9 PPG, and it's allowing 31. It's faced three straight difficult opponents though in SMU, Navy and Cincinnati, as QB Zack Smith had a 10:6 TD:INT thus far. Memphis though is a poor 6-10 ATS in its last 16 after scoring 42 points or more in its last game, while Tulsa is 5-2 ATS in its last seven off a loss by ten points or more to a conference rival. I think Tulsa plays with heart and takes the Tigers down to the wire. Grab the points.

8* play on Tulsa.

The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. Troy is 3-3 and desperate to string some wins together. Georiga State is 5-3 and can become eligible with one last victory. What better time than right now?! Troy enters off a 37-13 win over South Alabama, while Georgia State got the better of Army 28-21. Troy is led by QB Kaleb Barker and the Trojans are putting up a decent 449.2 yards of offense per game. Unfortunately though Troy has been an absolute train wreck on the other side of the ball, ranked 120th out of 130 FBS teams in stopping the pass, allowing 287.7 YPG. 

The pick: Georgia State is led by senior QB Dan Ellington, who had three TD passes vs. a tough Army defense last weekend. So far Ellington has a strong 16:3 TD:INT this year and I think he'll be the difference maker in this one. Also note that the Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games after posting 28 points or more in their previous game, while Troy is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games after scoring 35 points or more while also covering in its previous outing. This one has home side rout written all over it.

8* play on Georgia State. 

The set-up: Both teams have dropped four of their last five games. Illinois though is ocming off an epic 24-23 win at home over Wisconsin (which entered that game at 6-0 and as a 29 point favorite.) The Illini looked a lot better, especially on the defensive side of the ball and I think the team carries that momentum over here. 

The pick: Purdue will be tested by the Illini both on the ground and in the air. The Boilermakers allow 275 yards per game through the air. Is Boilermakers' QB Jack Plummer that much better than Illinois QB Brandon Peters? If we go by last week's results, the answer is no in my opinion. This one has the feel of an outright battle until the final whistle and because of that, I'm grabbing the points.

8* play on Illinois 

The set-up: Texas A&M is 4-3 overall and 2-2 in conference action, while Mississippi State is 3-4 overall and 1-3 in league action. Mississippi State comes in hungry here after back-to-back losses, most recently falling 36-13 to LSU. QB Garrett Schrader had 238 yards, one TD and one INT. He also had 66 rushing yards:

"We played our asses off today, and we fought," MSU head coach Joe Moorhead told Hail State. "Was it clean, was it precise, was it what we needed to be against this team? Absolutely not. But I know this – when I'm in that locker room and I look at that team and I saw how we fought; we're going to build off of this one. We're going to take the good things and correct the bad things, and be a football team that continues to fight for the rest of the year."

The Bulldogs average 25.4 PPG and they allow 26.4. 

The pick: Last week the Aggies beat Mississippi 24-17, but QB Kellen Mond did not look overly impressive, going 16 of 28 for 172 yards, one TD and two INT's. So far Texas A&M averages 31 PPG and it allows 22, however note that it's just 8-21 ATS in its last 29 home games vs. teams with a losing road record, while the Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five following a double-digit home loss. I think this is going to be a battle until the final whistle and as such, I'm grabbing the generous amount of points.

8* play on Mississippi State. 

The set-up: Bowling Green is 2-5 overall after giving up 38 points to CMU last weekend. WMU is 2-2 in league play, but its offense is ranked 27th in the nation, averaging 34.4 PPG. Also note that the Broncos play with revenge here after they fell 42-37 to the Green Falcons last year. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WMU is 4-0 at home and Bowling Green is 0-3 on the road. The Falcons just gave up 560 yards of offense to Central Michigan and QB's Darius Wade and Grant Loy continue to struggle. WMU senior QB Jon Wassink on the other hand already has 2,098 passing yards on the season (15 TD, 7 INT.) The Broncos also have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five at home and 4-0 ATS following a SU loss, while BG is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following an ATS loss. I don't expect the WMU defense to be the main story line tomorrow, but it won't have to with his Broncos' offense having its way with this porous Falcons' secondary. Lay the points with confidence.

8* play on Western Michigan

The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. USC is just 4-3 and still in search of eligibility. Time is running out for 3-4 Colorado as well though. The Buffs enter off a 41-10 loss to Washington State, their third straight conference set back. USC is off a 41-14 victory over Arizona at home. USC is in a tie now with Utah for the lead, but last week's victory came at a cost, as the Trojans come to Colorado suffering a number of injuries to key players: they lost starting RB Vavae Malepeai for the season. Junior RB Stephen Carr also hurt his hamstring against the Wildcats and isn't expected to play. Backup RB Markese Stepp is also out with an ankle injury. Defensive linemen Christian Rector and Drake Jackson are also slated as questionable, as are CB's  Olijah Griffin and Greg Johnson.

The pick: Colorado needs QB Steven Montez to show and produce tonight vs. this wounded Trojans' defense. Montez's ground game though has been decent of late, with Alex Fontenot running for over 70 yards in each of the last four games. I'll point out as well that USC is still only 9-15 ATS in its last 24 as a favorite, while Colorado is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two straight losses by 28 points or more to conference rivals. The situation favors the home side here, so grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on Colorado.

The set-up: SMU is already bowl eligible at 7-0, but Houston has some work to do at 3-4. An upset win at home over the surging Mustangs would certainly help get the ship directed in the correct direction. SMU comes in off a 45-21 home win over Temple. Shane Buechele has been superb so far for SMU, but I think he's going to have his hands full here vs. this motivated and hungry home side, which enters off a 24-17 win over UConn. Cougars' QB Logan Holgorsen and 123 yards and a TD. SMU allows 251 yards passing per game, so Holgorsen will have his opportunities. 

The pick: Note that SMU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten off a win against a conference rival, while Houston is is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four off a road win against a conference rival. I think the home side fights tooth and nail in this one and keeps it close as the game comes down the stretch. I'm grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston.

The set-up: A couple of 4-2 teams from the Mountain West collide late on Saturday night and when the smoke finally clears at the end of the night, I expect this total to sneak under the posted number. These are two effecient, but different offenses. The Falcons run the ball and the Warriors throw it. Air Force enters off a 43-24 win over Fresno State, while Hawaii enters off a beatdown loss to Boise State. While each played to a higher-scoring affair in their last outing, I expect more of a defensive battle here. 

The pick: The Falcons will be out to control while on offense and I believe that's going to help in pushing this total under the number. Additionally note that Air Force has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five after scoring 42 points or more in its previous contest, while Hawaii has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 63. This number is a tad high.

10* play on the UNDER AF/Hawaii.

The set-up: Boise State is 6-0 and BYU is just 2-4. BYU comes in desperate though after three straight losses. The Broncos are rolling, but I think they come out flat here after their 59-37 conference destruction of Hawaii. Yes Boise State posted 518 yards of total offense in the victory, but it also conceded 435. 

The pick: Both teams have injuries to starting QB's. BYU has the home field advantage and is the "hungrier" team here. I love this pick from an overall "situational" stand point, but also note that Boise State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after two straight wins by 17 or more points, while BYU is 4-1 ATS in its last five after a loss by six points or less. Grab the points.

10* play on BYU.  

The set-up: ODU is 1-5 and UAB is 5-1. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. ODU has been terrible offensively, but I think this sets up great from a situational stand point for the visitors. 

The pick: UAB is on the verge of eligiblity, but with its bye week up next before a game vs. the Vols and then Southern Miss, I believe the home side does indeed get caught "looking ahead." This is as situationally based selection on the visitors.

8* play on ODU. 

The set-up: I'm grabbing the points and expecting the 3-3 Terps to take the 4-2 Hoosiers down to the line. Indiana has won three of four, while Maryland has dropped three of four. The Terrapins are stout up front, allowing just 135 yards per game on the ground. The Terps can score as well, ranked in the top 50 as far as total yards of offense per game. 

The pick: Defense has been the weak point for the Terps, but Indiana has struggled as well, having allowed at least 28 points in eight of its last nine Big Ten contests. The Hoosiers are also a terrible 1-5 ATS in their last six as a road favorite, while the Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last six off a blowout loss vs. a conference rival of 21 point or more. Grab the points.

8* play on Maryland. 

The set-up: Minnesota is 6-0, while Rutgers is just 1-5. I think the Golden Gophers go up early in this one and then coast in the second half. The Knights are actually decent against the pass and the Knights only average 229.7 YPG through the air anyways. The Gophers dominate the run game, and Rutgers struggles against the rush.  

The pick: But I think that plays into our hands in here in grabbing the massive amount of points. It's back to back "cream puffs" for Minnesota, with Maryland at home up next. No need to do anything fancy here. Additionally note that the Gophers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six off a home win vs. a conference rival, while Rutgers is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home dog of 14.5 points or more. No titanic upsets, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

8* play on Rutgers. 

The set-up: Oregon State is just 2-4. Cal is 4-2, but it enters have lost two straight. Note that the Beavers play with revenge here as well after they fell 49-7 in this game last year. Last week the Bears managed just 256 total yards of offense, including only 66 on the ground. Yes the Bears only allow 18.3 PPG, but they only average 20.3 (ranked No. 116 in the country.) 

The pick: Beavers' QB Jake Lutton struggled vs. Utah last week, Oregon State still comes in averaging a very respectable 32 PPG. The defense has been the weak point in conceding 34 PPG, but it catches a break here facing the Bears vanilla offense. Finally note that Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road, while Oregon State is 0-4 ATS in its last four at home. I think the Beavers open up the playbook and keep this one competitive throughout. 

8* play on Oregon State.  

The set-up: I expect the 4-3 CMU Chippewas to lay the hammer down here on the 2-4 Bowling Green Falcons. Bowling Green has won two straight in the series, but I expect that trend to firmly go in the other direction after tonight. Previous to last week's win over Toledo, note that the Falcons had lst four straight, giving up 201 points and posting only 27 of their own in the process. The Chips come in off back-to-back victories, most recently taking care of winless New Mexico State. CMU won't be with QB David Moore, but senior Quinten Dormady had 134 yards passing and two TD's vs. the Aggies last week. 

The pick: Despite last week's win the Green Falcons are still averaging only 16 PPG. CMU is conceding 28 PPG, but so clearly the Chips' defense catches a break here as well. Finally note that CMU is a sharp 3-0 ATS in its last three as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Bowling Green is only 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog in the same points range (including 0-2 ATS this year.) Lay the points and expect a rout.

8* play on Central Michigan. 

The set-up: This is a big game for the 2-4 Boilermakers. Iowa is 4-2, but it comes in off a humblings 17-12 home loss to Penn State. Purdue on the other hand comes in off a momentum-building 40-14 victory over Maryland, with QB Jake Plummer throwing for 420 yards and three TD's. Iowa has the fifth ranked defense in the country, but Plummer won't be shy to try and get the ball down field whenever he can. The Boilermakers' QB has seven TD's and four INT's. Overall Purdue has six receivers with over 100 yards. 

The pick: Iowa' QB Nate Stanley had 286 passing yards in last week's loss, along with one TD and one INT. The Boilermakers' defensive numbers are poor, but it catches a break this week as note that the Hawkeyes have struggled in this spot for bettors, going a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight conference contests. Conversely this is a spot which the Boilermakers have excelled in by going 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. I'm grabbing the points.

8* play on Purdue. 

The set-up: Ohio State is 6-0 and Northwestern is just 1-4. Clearly I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do feel that the conditions are right for a tighter battle than what this spread would suggest. Ohio State ranks in the top in the country in almost every statistical category on both sides of the ball. Buckeyes' QB Justin Fields has 18 passing TD's and eight rushing. But with 6-0 Wisconsin at home next weekend, would anyone fault the visitors in looking past their lowly opponent in some small way today? 

The pick: Northwestern enters off three straight tough losses, but it also enters rested out of its bye. The Wildcats lost 31-10 to MSU, 24-15 to Wisconsin and 13-10 to Nebraska. Whether it's Aiden Smith or Hunter Johnson under center, I'm basing today's pick more on the situation than anything else. I will however note that NW is 4-1 ATS in its last five following its bye-week, while OSU is only 3-7 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with losing records. 

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on Northwestern.

The set-up: UL Lafayette's four game win streak was snapped in last week's 17-7 loss to App State. The Rajun Cajuns still average 38.2 PPG though and their rushing attack is ranked sixth with an average of 282.2 YPG. Arkansas State is averaging a whopping 40 PPG in the early going, but the Red Wolves defense has been atrocious. Arkansas State enters off a loss as well to Georgia State. 

The pick: UL Lafayette QB Levi Lewis is going to have a big day in my estimation and he comes in sporting a strong 9:2 TD:INT. The Red Wolves rank 117th in the nation against the run, so Cajuns' RB Trey Regas also looks primed for a huge night. Red Wolves' QB Layne Hatcher has four TD's and two INT's in each of his last two games, but his defense ranks second to last in D1. Finally onte that Arkansas State is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games, while UL Lafayette is 5-1 ATS in its last six following a SU loss. 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisiana Lafayette.

The set-up: South Alabama is 1-5 and Troy is slightly better at 2-3. Both teams enter off their respective bye weeks. A closer look at South Alabama's schedule though reveals a very difficult one in the early going (Nebraska, Memphis). Jaguars' second year coach Steve Campbell has his team moving in the right direction despite what the win/loss record says. Note that South Alabama held Nebraska to just 2.2 yards per carry. QB Cephus Johnson averaged 12.9 yards per throw and had two TD's and no INT's in his last game. Additionally note that South Alabama is 4-0 ATS in its last four conference contests. 

The pick: Troy senior QB Kaleb Barker is under center now after starter Brandon Silvers left before the season started, and in his last start Barker had only 92 yards passing on 26 attempts with two INT's. The Trojans rank 124th out of 130 FBS teams in passing yards allower per attempt at 10.22. Note as well that Troy is a terrible 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. In my opinion, this one has "nail-biter" written all over it. Grab the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on South Alabama.

The set-up: Both teams are 4-1, thanks in large part to suffocating defensive play. Wyoming has won three of the last four in this series. Last week SDSU picked up a big road win over Colorado State and there's no reason not to think that the Aztecs can't carry that momentum over here as well. SDSU also won't be taking anything for granted here after losing three of its last four in front of the home town crowd. 

The pick: Wyoming averages 31 PPG and it'll be playing to its strengths in this one. And that means a steady dose of airing the ball out whenver possible. SDSU will also be taking advantage of the fact that the Cowboys are terrible against the pass, ranked 127th in the country by allowing 329 yards through the air on average. The Aztecs' offense finally comes alive at home vs. this porous Wyoming secondary in my opinion. I also expect the visitors to push the pace from start to finish. When the smoke does finally clear at the end of the night, look for this total to sneak over this extremely low number. 

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Wyoming/SDSU.

The set-up: I like 4-2 Nebraska to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire with the 5-0 Golden Gophers. This is a big opportunity for the Huskers, who have two by weeks, bookended around two games vs. bottom feeders Purdue and Indiana. Nebraska has plenty of talent in RB Wan'Dale Robinson and QB Adrian Martinez. Note that Martinez leads the team in passing and rushing. 

The pick: Nebraska hammered Minnesota last year and I think the stage is set for an upset here as well. I think the Gophers 5-0 start is due to a weak schedule. Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan has 13 TD's and three INT's, but both RB Mohamed Ibrahim and Cam Wiley are listed as questionable. Note as well that Minnesota is a poor 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 following an ATS victory, while the Cornhuskers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. teams with a winning SU home record. I like Martinez to keep his team in this game. Grab the points.

10* COACH’S CORNER on Nebraska

The set-up: I think Kent State will bounce back big here after last week's tough 48-0 loss at Wisconsin. And who better to beat up on the lowly 0-5 Akron? The Zips tried their hardest last week, but ultimately succummbed 37-29 to UMass. 

The pick: The Golden Flashes have plenty of skilled players though, so keep your eyes on RB Jo-El Shaw, who has 300 yards rushing and two TD's. WR Isaiah McCoy has 21 catches and and three TD's. Akron averages only 14 PPG and it concedes over 30. The Zips are alos just 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. teams with losing records, while the Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last six after allowing 40 points or more in their previous outing. I'm laying the points and expecting a rout.

8* SMACK-DOWN on Kent State.

The set-up: The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 0-4 and they're down to their third string QB. They won't be lacking for motivation here though. Last week Rutgers lost 48-7 to Maryland. Overall the Knights average only 14.2 PPG, while allowing 36.2. 

The pick: But I think the well rested Hoosiers get caught "looking past" their lowly opponent today to their back to back road games at Maryland and Nebraska respectively. Last year Rugers lost this game 24-17 and I'm expecting a similar final here as well. Lastly not that Rutger is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 after playing two straight conference games, while Indiana is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten after one or more consecutive victories ATS (lost 40-31 to MSU two weeks ago, but easily covered with the large spread.) The stage is set for a more competitive battle than what this line would suggest.

9* PLAY-BOOK on Rutgers.

The set-up: Purdue is only 1-4 and it's off a big loss to Penn State. It's now or never for the Boilermakers if they have any shot at a late Bowl push. Maryland's been all over the place with its consistency this year, but it enters at 3-2. The Terps hammered the Orange 63-20, but since then they lost to Temple and then got destroyed 59-0 by Penn State. Maryland then responded with a 48-7 victory over a hurting Rutgers team. UPDATE: a big blow to Maryland today is that starting QB Josh Jackson is out with a high ankle sprain and back up Tyrell Pigrome is in.

The pick: Jeff Brohm is a great coach and the Boilermakers were supposed to be better than this this year. But here we are. Jake Plummer suffered seven sacks last week vs. the Nittany Lions, but he definitely catches a break at home this weekend. Note as well that Maryland is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 road games, while Purdue is 5-1 ATS in its last six after two or more conseuctive SU losses. The outright is possible obviously, but let's great the points.

9* SITUATIONAL SMOKE-JOB on Purdue. 

The set-up: Oregon is 4-1 and Colorado is 3-2. This is a big mid-season game for both Pac 12 Schools and because of that, I'm expecting more of a wide-open shootout. Colorado lost to Arizona last weekend, but it has a come from behind win over Nebraska and an upset road victory over Arizona State so far. The Ducks have looked great despite a collapse vs. Auburn in their opener, relling off four straight victories. This game features two of the best QB's in the conference and I believe they'll be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. 

The pick: The Buffs' Steven Montez is completing 67 percent of his passes this year and averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. Montez will be given the green light early and often here as Colorado's secondary is terrible. And that's good news for Oregon' QB Justin Herbert, as the Buffs are allowing 9.39 yards per attempt. The visitors have no choice but to try and keep pace. I think from a situational stand point, this one has high-scoring shootout written all over it.

10* play on the OVER Colorado/Oregon.

The set-up: This is a "must win" game for Colorado State if it plans to have any shot at a bowl berth at the end of the season. The Rams come to town off a poor 24-10 home loss to SDSU. New Mexico State enters having lost two straight, most recently a 32-21 setback to San Jose State. 

The pick: The Rams allow 36.5 PPG, but the Lobos concede 39.6. Colorado State has a decent QB in Patrick O' Brien, while New Mexico's offense is a complete disaster. Lobos' RB Ahmari Davis can't get the job done by himself today and I believe the home side is going to fade down the stretch. Note that the Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six following SU loss and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 following a double-digit loss at home. Meanwhile, the putrid Lobos are 0-5 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss. I'm laying the points and expecting a decisive victory for CSU.

8* play on Colorado State.

The set-up: I think rest leads to rust for 4-1 Virginia, which had its bye week last weekend after its loss to Notre Dame. Miami Florida comes in off a 42-35 shootout loss to Virginia Tech. Note as well that this is a big time revnege game for the Hurricanes after the Hoos beat Miami 16-13 in Charlottesville. Virginia' QB Bryce Perkins was sacked eight times by the Irish and I believe the pivot will have his hands full again here as well. 

The pick: This has essentially turned into a "must win" game for 2-3 Miami, which his 0-3 vs. Power 5 programs. Yes Miami spotted VT a 28-0 lead, but after that the Hurricanes completely outplayed the Hokies in last week's setback. Despite giving up 42 points to Tech (from five turnovers from the offense), the Hurricanes are STILL only allowing 21.2 PPG. Note as well that Virginia is just 1-3 ATS in its last four vs. teams with losing records, while Miami Florida is 3-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite of seven points or less. I think the hungrier/desperate revenge-minded home-side delivers the goods.

10* play on Miami Florida.

The set-up: Both teams are 3-2. Both are 0-1 in ACC action. Both are also coming out of their respective bye weeks. Syracuse is led by QB Tommy DeVito, who has 1,234 passing yards and 11 TD's (eight in the last two games.) The Orange defense has been decent, having posted 12 forced turnovers.  

The pick: NC State comes out of its bye week with a new face under center in Bailey Hockman, who is a four star FSU transfer. For his career he's 28 of 50 for 255 yards, one TD and one INT. Also note that the Wolf Pack will be without RB Ricky Person, as well as OT Justin Witt. Take it for what you will as well, but NC State is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. teams with winning records, while the Orange are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after scoring 40 or more points in their previous game. Clearly the outright isn't out of the question, but grab as many points as you can in the end.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse.

The set-up: Appalachian State is 4-0, while Louisiana Lafayette is 4-1. The Mountaineers were 11-2 last year and they'd go on to beat these very Rajin Cajuns in the Conference Championship game. Louisiana State's only loss came against Mississippi State.  App State QB Zac Thomas has been great for the undefeated Mountaineers, but the questions mark remain on the defensive side of the ball. If the Mountaineers have any hopes of progressing to a NY6 contest, then clearly they're going to have to get it figured out on that side of things. The Cajuns have been spectacular running the football though, so the home side will be sticking to its strength while on offense obviously. App State's strength on the defensive side is its run defense, which allows only 165 yards per game. 

The pick: Both teams have had extra time off to heal up and I believe this is going to be a battle until the final whistle. Additionally note that App State has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten following a cover as a double digit favorite, while LA Lafayette has seen the total go under in four of its last five after two or more SU victories. This number is a little high.

10* TOTAL BUTT WHOOPIN on the UNDER App State/Lafayette.

The set-up: Washington is 4-1 and Stanford is 2-3. The Huskies only loss cam to Cal in Week 2. Last week the Huskies beat USC, but QB Jacob Eason was only 16 of 26 for 180 yards and no TD’s. Stanford and head coach David Shaw have an uncharacteristically difficult start to the season, but they come in off a solid 31-28 Pac 12 win over Oregon State and I think the home side carries that momentum over here:

“The last three weeks have been tough,” said Shaw recently. “They’ve been really tough. We played against really good teams two of them on the road in very difficult environments.”

The pick: Stanford backup QB David Mills replaced KJ Costello, who has a thumb injury, and he went 18 for 25 for 245 yards and three TD’s last week. Look for this steadily improving Cardinal side to keep this one closer than what this spread would suggest. 

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Stanford.

The set-up: It’s No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 25 Michigan State and I’m expecting a hard-hitting, low-scoring battle until the end today. MSU is 4-1 and 2-0 in conference, while Ohio State is 4-0 and 2-0 in Big Ten play. While Ohio State has looked solid, MSU has some question marks surrounding it after losing at home to Arizona State and then barely holing on for the win vs. Indiana last weekend. The Buckeyes come into this one after a solid 48-7 win over Nebraska. 

The pick: MSU averages 31 PPG, but its strength is on the defensive side where it allows only 15. Ohio State has averaged 52 PPG, while allowing just 8.6. Look for each team to try and control this one while on offense as they look to limit mistakes. I expect these top notch defenses to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. 

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the UNDER MSU/Ohio State.

The set-up: Outright victory? Of course not. But I do think that the 4-0 Penn State Lions get caught “looking past” their lowly 1-3 opponent. The Boilermakers have struggled to this point. While they haven’t played since 2016, I still think its worthy to point out that Purdue has lost eight straight in the series. After smashing Maryland 59-0 last weekend, would anyone fault the Nittany Lions for having a bit of a mental lapse vs. Purdue at home? Purdue won’t be going down without a fight, last week it fell 38-31 to Minnesota. 

The pick: From an overall “situational” stand point, I think this one sets up great for the hungry Boilermakers. Clearly the Nittany Lions are the “better” team, but I think this is a classic “trap.” Also note that Purdue is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog, while Penn State is only 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

8* pick on Purdue.

The set-up: Obviously the outright upset isn’t out of the question, but in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last. Both Tulane and Army are 3-1. Tulane though I think is set up for a letdown here after its emotional come from behind win at home over Houston last weekend (was down 28-7 in the second half and it was decide by a 53 yard TD strike from QB Justin McMillan to WR Jalen McCleskey as time wound off the clock in regulation.) Can anyone say “letdown spot?” Army enters off back-to-back wins, but won’t be taking anything for granted here after demolishing the Morgan State Bears last weekend, behind a career-best day from RB Connor Slomka. 

The pick: Tulane’s offense is going to be put to the test here vs. Army’s 15th ranked overall defense which concedes 16.3 PPG. Army is a sharp 4-0-1 ATS in its last five following a bye week, while Tulane is a poor 3-8 ATS in its last 11 vs. teams with a winning home record. For all the reasons listed above, I’m on the Golden Knights.

8* pick on Army.

The set-up: I’m of course not calling for the outright upset, but I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. More than anything though, I think the Badgers get caught “looking past” their final non-conference opponent of the season this afternoon. Two weeks ago the Golden Flashes smashed Bowling Green 62-20 and in that contest QB Dustin Crum was 26 of 31 for 310 yards and three TD’s. Wisconsin followed up a statement win over No. 19 Michigan by pulling away for a lacklustre 24-15 victory over Northwestern. 

The pick: Kent State is a sharp 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road dog of 21.5 or more points, while Wisconsin is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten as a home favorite of 21.5 or more points. This spread is just a little large. Grab the points.

8* pick on Kent State.

The set-up: Iowa is 4-0, while Michigan is 3-1. The Hawkeyes demolished MTSU 48-3 last weekend, while Michigan rebounded from its first loss to smash Rutgers 52-0 last Saturday. This is an ultra important game for both teams and as such, I believe it’s going to be decided by whichever of them has their hands on the ball last. Iowa QB Nate Stanley had 965 passing yards and eight TD’s so far this year and his defense is allowing only 78 rushing yards per game. Michigan dominated last weekend because of its run game, but clearly that strategy isn’t going to work this weekend. 

The pick: The Hawkeyes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 after playing a home game, while the Wolverines are a terrible 3-6 ATS in their last nine after scoring 37 points or more in their last game. While I do think the outright is possible, in the end I’ll recommend to grab the points. 

8* pick on Iowa.

The set-up: Both teams enter at 1-3. USF has lost two two top 25 teams in Wisconsin and SMU by a margin of 38 points. The Huskies have lost to Illinois, Indiana and UCF by an average mating of 26 points. Both teams have similar offensive and defensive numbers, which makes the home field advantage that much more important for bettors in my opinion. 

The pick: USF starting QB Blake Barnett is listed as questionable as well. Additionally note that USF is just 6-12 ATS in its last 18 as a favorite, while UConn is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two straight losses by 21 points or more. I’m grabbing all these points.

8* pick on UConn.

The set-up: This is a big Mountain West Conference matchup, as both teams come in at 2-2. San Jose State already suffered a conference loss, falling 41-24 to the Air Force Falcons last week, while this will be New Mexico’s conference opener. And if recent history is any precedence, then the Lobos have to be liking their chances at an upset today, as the last time these teams met, New Mexico pulled way for the 48-41 victory. New Mexico comes in hungry as well after last week’s loss to Liberty. San Jose State averages just 25.1 PPG and New Mexico looked a lot better defensively last week, allowing only 17 points in the setback to Liberty. The Lobos have a QB issue, with Tevaka Tuioti and Sheriron Jones splitting time after the starter went down win injury in Week 1. 

The pick: San Jose State somehow managed a win on the road vs. Arkansas and QB Josh Love is a clear strength of the team. The Spartans though are an absolute disaster defensively, as the unit allows the 11th most yards in all of FBS college football at the moment. Note that New Mexico is 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing two straight non-conference games, while San Jose State is just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a favorite and only 6-7 ATS in its last 13 at home. Grab the points and expect a battle.

10* ULTIMATE SUPER SHOCKER on New Mexico.

The set-up: While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do definitely feel that the stage is set for a much closer battle than what this spread would suggest. ECU is coming off a 24-21 upset road victory over ODU and I believe the Pirates carry that momentum over here. Temple comes to town off a 24-2 win at home over Georgia Tech. Previous to that though the Owls were upset 38-22 on the road in Buffalo. 

The pick: ECU has won two in a row and three of its last four. The Pirates have been getting strong defensive play as well, allowing only 151.4 YPG, and note that ECU has had to face Navy as well this year. The Owls are a terrible 0-6 ATS in their last six as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while ECU is 5-1 ATS in its last six after playing a non-conference game. Grab the points and sit back and relax on this one.

10* NCAAF GAME OF THE WEEK on East Carolina.

The set-up: I think the desperate 1-3 Bruins will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire vs. the 2-1 Wildcats. UCLA managed a one-point victory in last year’s game. Arizona comes in having won straight at home, most recently over the hapless Texas Tech Red Raiders, but note that it’s still lost five of its last eight Pac 12 conference games overall. Arizona’s offense looks decent, but UCLA catches a break here facing suspect Wildcats’ QB Khalil Tate, who’s completed only 63 percent of his passes for six TD’s to four INT’s. 

The pick: The Bruins enter with momentum and QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson had five TD pass and two more on the ground. And that’s bad news for an Arizona secondary which has been torched by the pass this year, allowing 373 yards per game. The Bruins have been poor defensively, but note that they’re 6-1 ATS in their last seven after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games. Arizona on the other hand is just 1-3 ATS in its last four following its bye week. Grab the points and expect a closer than expected battle. 

10* NCAAF GAME OF THE YEAR on UCLA.

The set-up: Ohio State has won four straight in this series, including a 36-31 home win in 2018. The Buckeyes are 4-0 and they enter off a 76-5 win over Miami Ohio last Saturday. Nebraska clearly won’t be rolling over here as it’s 3-1 and most recently it beat Illinois 42-38. These two Big Ten title contenders have played to some high-scoring affairs of late, but I believe that this Week 5 matchup finally sets up as more of a defensive affair. 

The pick: Nebraska’s defense is under-rated here, it allowing only 116.7 rushing yards and 240 passing yards per game. But not to be outdone, the Buckeyes come in ranked as the second best defense in the country, conceding just 220 total yards per game. Additionally note that the Buckeyes have seen the total go under the number in four of their last six when the total in the contest is set between 63.5 and 70 points, while Nebraska has seen the total dip under in four of its last five after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. This number is a tad high in my opinion. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Ohio State/Nebraska under.

The set-up: I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I do think that the 0-4 Rice Owls will fight tooth and nail and at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Rice has fallen to four quality opponents though and I think it finally puts everything together here in front of the home town crowd. Note that these two teams have one mutual non-conference opponent this year, the Texas Longhorns.

The pick: And note that each team lost by the approximate same score, with Louisiana Tech falling 45-14 and Rice losing 48-13. The Bulldogs’ defense allowed nearly 400 yards passing to FIU’s QB last week. And that’s good news for Owls’ QB Tom Stewart, who has 414 passing yards, three TD’s and on INT’s. Rice has allowed 31 PPG so far, but again that number is skewed in my opinion due to the level of competition thus far. Additionally note that Louisiana Tech is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Rice is 2-0 ATS in its last two off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog. I’m grabbing the points but wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset. 

8* play on Rice.

The set-up: Outright victory? Most likely not. But I’m expecting a battle until the end here between these Big Ten rivals. Indiana comes in off a blowout victory over UConn, while MSU enters off a victory over Northwestern. The Hoosiers have lost nine of the last ten in this series, including last year’s contest 35-21. But last week Indiana posted 430 yards of offense, while holding the Huskies to just 145. Indiana QB Peyton Ramsey was 23 of 27 for 247 yards, three TD’s and an an INT. Overall Indiana averages 33 PPG, and it concedes 19. 

The pick: MSU is averaging 29 PPG and it’s conceding 11. The Hoosiers though are 6-2 ATS in their last eight following one or more consecutive SU wins, while MSU is just 7-10 ATS in its last 17 at home and only 2-4 ATS in its last six off a row win vs. a conference rival. I think the stage is set for a competitive battle.

8* play on Indiana.

The set-up: Coastal Carolina won’t be lacking for motivation here after winning three straight. Overall the Chanticleers are averaging 27 PPG and 181 passing yards, led by dual-threat QB Bryce Carpenter, who had 102 rushing yards and 104 passing yards in the blowout win over UMass. 

The pick: And would anyone blame App State for having a tiny bit of a mental letdown this week after its big 34-31 win over UNC at Chapel Hill last weekend?! It was the Tar Heels first victory vs. a Power Five opponent since 2007. App State has averaged 49 PPG this year, but I’m still unconvinced and think this one sets up beautifully for the surging visitors. Coastal Carolina is getting the job done by controlling the clock, averaging 200 rushing yards per game this year. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a competitive battle. 

8* play on Coastal Carolina.

The set-up: From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the visitors. The Badgers enter off a big win over Michigan last week and I think an imminent letdown is inevitable for the home side here. Northwestern’ QB Hunter Johnson doesn’t have anything to lose here after starting the season with four INT’s and just one TD. Keep your eyes on Northwestern WR Bennett Skowronek, who has caught a pass in 30 straight games. The Wildcats will have their hands full with Badgers’ RB Johathan Taylor, who leads the conference in rushing.

The pick: However with the home side looking to control the pace and limit mistakes, I think that also plays into the Wildcats’ hands today and the sizeable spread they’ve been afforded. Northwestern hasn’t been very good on either side of the ball, but the defense still leads Illinois, Minnesota and Purdue. I look for the Badgers to go up early and then take the foot off the gas. Grab the points, expect a solid back door cover.

8* play on Northwestern.