I think Nebraka is going to be a lot better this year, and I think that Minnesota is going to take a step back, but here in Week 1, I still think that the Gophers run game and re-worked defensive unit will be too much for Matt Rhule's team to handle down the stretch. QB Jeff Sims tranferred over from Georgia Tech for Nebraska and while he has plenty of talent, that chemistry will for sure take time to develop. The Gophers won this game 20-13 last year, but I'm expecting a bigger final discrepancy this time around. Minnesota does have a star in RB Sean Tyler as well. I see this one getting out of hand late, so lay the points on the Gophers.

Both of these teams disappointed last year, but especially Hawaii which finished 3-10. Vanderbilt wasn't much better at 5-7. These teams opened last year in Hawaii against each other, and Vanderbilt scored the 63-10 win. While I do believe this year's rematch will be considerably more competitive, I do in fact feel we'll see a similar final combined score, so because of that I'm going to be playing the over. Good news for Hawaii is consistency at the QB position from last year to this one, with Brayden Schager back under center. He finished second in the MW with 2,348 passgin yards. Defense was a weak point last year, allowing 34.69 PPG. The Commodores were even worse defensively, yielding 36 PPG. Look for these teams to open things up offensively and expect this total to eclipse the posted number once it's all said and done.

Here we go with another College Football season and I'll look to pick up right where I left off from last season. Jerry Kill and New Mexico State made their second bowl game since 2000 last year. Kill has a knack of turning programs around, and I see more progression this season. Here's a great opponent to hammer on early and work out some stuff. Last year Diego Pavia was a true dual threat QB, while the defense was the biggest surprise, finishing 30th overall in the country. New Mexico State is only ranked 122nd, and UMass is significantly lower than that. Look for the Aggies to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points with New Mexico State.

TCU seems like a pretty square dog to me. Including the semifinal win over Michigan, they have six wins by eight points or less. Give them credit for getting here, but the Horned Frogs are severely outclassed in this National Championship matchup with Georgia. 

Against Michigan, the Horned Frogs needed two pick-sixes and a pair of turnovers at the goal line. And they still only won by six! They were outgained for the game 528-488.

While Georgia did trail almost the entire game against Ohio State, they actually did outgain the Buckeyes 533-467. And OSU is a much better team than TCU, who may not have its starting running back for this game. 

The Bulldogs have not only won 10 straight times as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points, but they have covered the spread in 9 of those 10 wins. 

I think in a situation like this, it’s typically a good idea to fade the crowd and it’s pretty clear to me that vast majority of people are taking the points in this one. I think that’s a mistake. UGA wins big and repeats as National Champs. 10*

Utah is likely to be motivated here after losing last year’s Rose Bowl 48-45 to Ohio State. The Utes led most of that game, only to see QB Cam Rising get hurt. 

The Utes are once again Pac 12 Champs and even though TE Kincaid won’t play here, they should have no problem scoring on a Penn State defense that allowed 41 to Michigan and 44 to Ohio State. The Nittany Lions won’t have their top corner (Joey Porter Jr) here as well. 

Utah will be without CB Clark Phillips III, who is arguably their best defender. 

The Penn State offense is top 10 in the country at scoring touchdowns when inside the red zone. Conversely, the Utah defense was 110th at giving up TDs when opposing offenses get inside the 20. 

The market seems to believe we’re in store for a second straight high scoring Rose Bowl Game and so do I. The Over is 12-5 in Penn State’s last 17 non-conf games and 4-0 their last four games vs. Pac 12 opponents. 10* 

With the “skeleton crew” they’ll be trotting out, I don’t think you should expect many points from Purdue in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl. Among those missing in action on the offensive side of the ball for the Boilermakers will be: QB O’Connell, WR Jones and TE Durham. 

That’s why we’ve seen this line balloon over the course of the last couple weeks. Purdue will be without several defensive starters as well. But it’s the offense that I’m most worried about. Don’t forget that the Boilermakers also lost their head coach (Jeff Brohm) to Louisville. 

Brohm’s younger brother Brian will be the interim coach here. But how interested is he? Things are so dire at the QB position that famous alum Drew Brees has been tapped to mentor Austin Burton, who will be making just his second career start. 

LSU won’t have WR Boutee, who decided to opt-out. The Tigers also have opt outs on the defensive side, but because of their superior depth should have little problem shutting down Purdue’s depleted offense.

Unless the LSU offense goes completely wild in this game, which I don’t anticipate happening, then the Under looks like a formality. That’s the way the market is moving as well. 8*

I’m targeting the CFP semifinal between Ohio State and Georgia for my biggest O/U play of bowl season. 

Ohio State is 9-1 to the Over in its last 10 games. We all saw the defensive issues against Michigan. But the Buckeyes are still averaging 44.5 points/game themselves for the season.

Georgia should have no problem putting up points Saturday night. They scored 50 in the SEC Championship against LSU. They also gave up 30 though. 

As great as the Bulldogs’ defense is, I see them struggling to contain Buckeyes QB CJ Stroud, who led the country in passing efficiency.

Also worth noting is that the Over is 6-0 the last six times Ohio State has faced a team with a winning record. I may add to my analysis later, but definitely wanted to get this pick out ASAP so you can bet now. I expect the number will continue to rise. 10*

Our first New Year’s Six Bowl Game is a matchup of top 10 teams, but #6 Tennessee and #7 Clemson are in drastically different places heading into the Orange Bowl.

Tennessee’s season came crashing down with a 63-38 loss to South Carolina in the second to last game. Not only was that a humiliating result, but it cost the Volunteers a shot at the College Football Playoff. Adding injury to insult, QB Hendon Hooker suffered a season-ending injury. In addition to not having Hooker here, the Vols have seen their two top receivers opt out and they will be without offensive coordinator Alex Golesh, who is now the head coach at USF.

Clemson has some opt outs as well. But the big news for them is the switch at QB. Cade Klubnik is now the starter after an impressive ACC Championship Game performance where he completed 20 of 24 passes for 279 yards, sending DJ Uiagalelei packing. All of a sudden, an 11-2 season that was “disappointing” (by this program’s standard) has renewed enthusiasm. 

Hooker’s replacement is Joe Milton and you can look for him to struggle against what remains an outstanding Clemson defense (even with the opt outs). Milton is simply not very accurate on deep balls and was only 11 of 21 for 147 yards against Vanderbilt.

I think Clemson is the team that “wants” this game more. The Tigers have covered 11 of their last 14 bowl appearances and are 20-7-1 ATS vs. Top 10 opponents under Dabo Swinney. Lay the points. 10* 

Looking to go Over in the Pinstripe Bowl as Minnesota takes on Syracuse. It’s a very low total, one of the lowest of the entire bowl season.

This was set to be a battle of top tier running backs. But Syracuse’s Sean Tucker has opted out. That’s one of the reasons they are big favorites to the Golden Gophers, who will have Mohamed Ibrahim. 

The Orange closed the regular season poorly, by losing five of six after a 6-0 start. Minnesota, closed strong, winning four of five and has a defense that isn’t expected to give up many points to the Tucker-less Orange. But I expect Syracuse to pass the ball effectively in this game and catch the Golden Gophers defense off guard. 

On the other side, Minnesota should have its way on the ground against a Syracuse defense that is bad against the run. The Orange are 112th in rushing success allowed and 117th in line yards. 

Considering Syracuse allowed 38 or more points in three of its last five games, Minnesota won’t need much help getting this one Over the low total. Play Over. 10*

This matchup between Kansas and Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl should produce a ton of points. The first thing you need to know is that Arkansas’ defense will be very short-handed, due to players opting out. The most notable absences are at linebacker where Drew Sanders and Bumper Pool won’t play. 

The Kansas offense had no problem putting up points in 2022, especially when QB Jalon Daniels was healthy, which he is here. The Jayhawks’ offense will be the best unit on the field Wednesday and comes in averaging over 34 points/game against defenses that mostly cared. Not sure Arkansas’ defense cares here and there will be a ton of inexperience out there.

But the Razorbacks, who are favored, should score as well. The Kansas’ defense isn’t any good as it yielded over 33 points/game in the regular season. The last three Jayhawks’ opponents scored 47, 55 and 43 points. 

I think this has a good shot at being the highest scoring bowl we’ve seen thus far, topping last night’s Birmingham Bowl (82 points). Over is the clear call.

The Over has hit in five of Kansas’ last six games and six of Arkansas’ last eight games. 10*

The uncertain status of QB John Rhys Plumlee makes this handicap a bit difficult, but UCF is certainly not the play given the uncertainty and Duke is a team that really improved throughout 2022 and should be fired up to be here in the Military Bowl (played in Annapolis, MD).  

The Blue Devils won five ACC games this year. That’s after winning none last year. This is the program’s first bowl since 2018, meaning the first for virtually every current player. On the other side, UCF had higher aspirations for the season than this game. The line move reflects the respective motivations. 

Losing to Tulane in the AAC Championship Game cost the Knights a shot at playing in the Cotton Bowl. They come into the bowl on a three-game ATS losing streak. There was an outright loss to Navy and they only beat USF by 7. 

All of Duke’s losses this year were by one score, so they could have finished better than 8-4 and even been in the ACC Title Game. The three conference losses were by a total of eight points. 

Duke QB Riley Leonard accounted for the third most touchdowns in the entire FBS (31 - 20 passing + 11 rushing). This is an offense that can run the ball effectively.  So can UCF, but Plumlee not being 100%/possibly out would hurt them. There’s no opt-outs for Duke, who will be at full strength and that should give them the edge over a possibly disinterested UCF team. 10* 

This number is down to -7 and I think it’s time to hit Memphis, who should be favored by double digits here against Utah State in the First Responder Bowl, playing in Gerald J Ford Stadium (home of SMU) in Dallas, TX. 

The venue is familiar to Memphis as this is where they played their last regular season game, which ended up being a 34-31 loss to SMU. That was one of three losses by a field goal or less for the Tigers, who went 0-4 in one-score games this season. That’s pretty unlucky.

Utah State was last seen suffering the worst beat of this, or any other, College Football season. They were on the verge of being Boise State outright, but then fell apart and ended up not even covering as 17-point underdogs. But close calls mostly went the Aggies way this season; they were 4-0 SU in one-score games.

Close game records aside; Memphis is the much better football team here. I’ve got Utah State rated as one of the very worst teams in a bowl this year. Memphis will be motivated to win as they want to avoid their first losing season since ‘13. As a favorite, the Tigers are 6-1 this year and are winning by an average of 20 points/game.

The Utah State offense is going to be without its two top running backs due to opt out and injury. They will struggle to move the ball while Memphis should have no problem cashing in against an Aggies’ defense that is 94th in points per drive allowed when opponents get inside the 40-yard line. Lay the points in this one. 10*

These are two of the worst bowl teams, but neither New Mexico State nor Bowling Green will be lacking motivation. This is only the second bowl for NMSU since 1960 and they scrambled to get a 12th regular season game (crushed a FCS team) to get eligible for this game. Bowling Green will be making its first bowl appearance since 2015.

BG should have the edge in crowd support, given that we’re talking about only a 90 min drive from campus up to Detroit. I’d imagine the trip from Las Cruces, the day after Christmas, isn’t going to be a popular one for Aggies’ fans.

Both of these offenses are bad. New Mexico State posted three big point totals down the stretch, but two were against FCS teams. They are averaging only 17.7 points/game away from home this year. As for Bowling Green, they cannot run the ball effectively and scored 17 or points or less in 7 of their 12 games. 

The Falcons do have a pretty good defense though and actually rank in the top 10 nationally in sacks! 

BG’s offense ranked only 108th nationally in yards per play. The New Mexico State defense is top 20. I am looking for a low-scoring bowl game on Monday afternoon. Play the Under. 10* 

Wake Forest finished the regular season on a 1-4 slide, its only win coming against slumping Syracuse. But I do expect the Demon Deacons to “show up” for the Gasparilla Bowl against Missouri. QB Sam Hartman is just one touchdown away from tying an ACC record.

Missouri picked up a nice win over Arkansas in its last regular season game, which they needed to become bowl eligible. My concern with the Tigers is that they only averaged 18 points/game outside of Columbia. Now some of that is due to facing the gauntlet of SEC defenses. But, home or road, Mizzou scored 24 or less eight times this year.

I like what I’m hearing from Wake head coach Dave Clawson, who has said he’s happy with the matchup and wants to beat a SEC team. Clawson always seems to get his team to exceed expectations every year. Receiver A.T. Perry not opting out of the bowl is another plus. He’s Hartman’s favorite option to throw to.

Missouri’s defense, which is the strength of the team, is dealing with some opt-outs. The two top defensive linemen won’t play and neither will safety Martuez Manuel. 

On the offensive side of the ball, Mizzou has had to say goodbye to its playcaller (took another job) and receiver Lovett (led team in catches won’t play today either). In the end, look for Wake QB Hartman to be the difference for a Wake team that is on a 9-4 SU/ATS run in bowls. Lay it. 10*

It’s Houston vs. Louisiana in the Independence Bowl. Houston (8-4) comes in as a touchdown favorite against a 6-6 Louisiana team. Really, you could argue that both of these teams had disappointing seasons. 

Louisiana was 13-1 last season but lost a bunch of talent and their coach (Billy Napier to Florida). I’m not really surprised that the Ragin Cajuns fell off a bit this year. The offense really didn’t dip all that much (31.1 to 27.0 points/game) but be aware that they’ll come in with a backup QB for this game. 

Houston really didn’t have a problem scoring points, but their defense was bad. As a result, the Cougars are 9-2-1 to the Over this season, which is the highest Over percentage in the FBS. That includes a 4-0 record in non-conference games. 

That said, this number is too high. The top Louisiana receiver opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Houston coach Dana Holgorsen is never good in bowls, so I’m not expecting a great effort from the other side either. The Under is 4-0 in Houston’s last four neutral site games. 

Facing Houston’s pass-happy offense won’t intimidate Louisiana, who has one of the best secondaries from the Group of Five (15 interceptions). I would not be surprised if QB Tune and WR Dell don’t play the full game for UH. The number has moved down and I agree with that. 10*

I’m going to lay the points here with South Alabama in the New Orleans Bowl. Since making the jump to the FBS level a decade ago, the Jaguars have never won in a bowl. They’ve only been to two, the last one coming in 2016 (a 45-21 loss to Air Force in the Arizona Bowl). Motivation always has to be part of your handicap in these early bowl games. USA should be motivated to win here. 

Meanwhile, there’s an odd situation with Western Kentucky. Their QB Austin Reed, who was second in the country in passing yards (Penix of Washington #1), announced his intention to enter the transfer portal. But then there was an “about face” and Reed is back, set to start the bowl. Teammates are saying the right things, but it’s hardly ideal bowl prep.

The Sun Belt is already 3-0 in bowl games with Troy, Southern Miss and Marshall all victorious thus far. Conference USA is pretty weak and has already dropped two of three bowl matchups. The lone win was UAB against a MAC school (Miami OH). The MAC is the only conference I have rated lower than C-USA. 

South Alabama was 2-10 SU three years ago and now has “flipped” that record, entering this game with a 10-2 record. Their defense is excellent, allowing just 19.4 points and 303.7 yards per game. This matchup is all about the Jaguars’ defense vs. the Hilltoppers’ offense. 

Again, I’m playing the favorite here. USA’s only two losses this year were to Troy (Sun Belt Champs) and UCLA and they were by a combined five points! WKU also lost a close game to Troy and stayed within three at Indiana. But the Hoosiers aren’t a bowl team and the Hilltoppers also got blown out by North Texas and Auburn. USA’s motivation of trying to win their first bowl trumps all. 10* 

The MAC representative has generally not fared well in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, claiming just three wins since 2011. Now it isn’t always MAC vs. Mountain West, but when it has been, the MWC is 5-3 straight up. But for this year’s matchup between Eastern Michigan and San Jose State, I like the MAC team getting points.

Part of that is motivation. Coach Chris Creighton has really done a pretty good job at turning this EMU program around. The Eagles had been a doormat for years prior to Creighton’s arrival, but this is will be their fifth bowl appearance in his nine seasons. The thing is, they’ve yet to win one. The program’s last bowl win came all the way back in 1987,  in the California Raisin Bowl, against (you won’t believe this, San Jose State). It’s one of the longest bowl droughts in the FBS. 

Off a poor finish to the regular season, where they failed to cover their last six games, don’t see where the motivation for SJSU comes from. This also figures to be the rare cold weather bowl game. Temperatures are expected to be in the 30’s, something the Spartans are not accustomed with.

Eastern Michigan won its final three regular season games (scoring 31 or more every time) to finish 8-4. QB Powell had 581 yards passing and a 6-0 TD-INT ratio the last two games. In its last two games away from home, the San Jose State defense allowed 35 and 43 points. EMU can run as well. I expect them to put up a good number of points here. 

As for the San Jose State offense, it is led by QB Cordeiro, who ran hot and cold all year. Eastern Michigan was #2 against the pass in the MAC and won six of the seven games it didn’t allow 240+ pass yards. SJSU’s offensive line is bad, allowing too much pressure and there isn’t much of a ground game. 10*

Rice is a 5-7 team that only got to a bowl because there weren’t enough 6-win teams. For that reason, most will be writing off the Owls here in the Lending Tree Bowl vs. Southern Miss. But don’t discount the Owls’ motivation. This will be the program’s first bowl appearance since 2014. They will be out to win. So I’m taking the points.

Southern Miss is in a bowl for the first time since 2019. They won their final game (20-10 over LA Monroe) to get to 6-6. The Golden Eagles’ offense goes through RB Frank Gore Jr, who I concede could be a problem for a shaky Rice run defense (166.8 YPG allowed). 

These teams are quite familiar with one another as they were rivals in Conference USA up until this season when USM bolted for the Sun Belt. Rice has actually beaten Southern Miss each of the last two seasons, 24-19 and 30-6, both times as a one-point underdog. 

Half of Rice’s games this season were decided by seven points or less. The same was true of Southern Miss. With a low total, I think it just makes sense to take the points here. 

Turnovers were the Owls’ bugaboo this year. Only Northwestern coughed it up more. As long as they can protect the football, I have no doubt that they can cover this number and possibly win outright. 10* 

This is the more “marquee” bowl on Friday as we’ve got Troy taking on UTSA in the Cure Bowl, played in Orlando, FL. You’ve got to think the Roadrunners want this one badly. They’ve gone 0-2 in bowls the last two years and are 0-3 all-time in bowls in program history.

I won’t dispute the fact that Troy has the edge defensively heading into this game. But my concern for the Trojans is whether or not they have enough offense to keep up with UTSA. My gut says “no.” UTSA averages 38.7 points/game, which is Top 12 in the country and #1 among Group of Five teams.

UTSA QB Frank Harris leads the charge with 3,865 yards passing this season and 9,158 in his career. Him sticking around to play in this game is a major reason why I’m putting my money on the Roadrunners. 

Both teams won their respective conferences, Troy the Sun Belt and UTSA C-USA. Of the four combined losses, three were to ranked teams (at the time) and the other on a Hail Mary.

Troy is 10-2 ATS, tied for the best cover percentage in the FBS. But teams coming into the bowls with a ATS win percentage of .750 or higher are just 41% ATS over the last decade. I believe UTSA is the substantially better team, which is NOT reflected in the line. 10*

Double digit dogs in bowl games have been a valuable investment through the years. We’ve got one of those in our very first bowl game of the season as Miami takes on UAB in the Bahamas.

Now I wouldn’t be surprised if Miami ends up as a single digit dog by kickoff. That’s because on Thursday afternoon it was announced UAB stud RB DeWayne McBride is sitting this game out. UAB already was dealing with some upheaval as Trent Dilfer will be coming in as the next head coach. But it will be an interim (Bryant Vincent) coaching this game. Many of the players wanted Vincent to get the head coaching job on a permanent basis.

Both teams were 6-6 SU in the regular season. However, UAB didn’t cover the spread a single time away from home (0-6 ATS). McBride is a major loss as he led all of FBS in rushing yards (1,713) and touchdowns (19). 

Miami is a perfect 3-0 ATS in bowls under Chuck Martin and this will be the first time since 2003-04 that the program has gone bowling in consecutive years. The RedHawks defeated North Texas in the Frisco Classic last year. They have covered four straight bowls. 

I’d bet this one ASAP as I expect the line to go down. But, no matter the number, taking the points would be the right move. In fact, an outright upset wouldn’t shock me here. UAB is 0-3 ATS this season when playing with more than a week of rest. The Blazers’ defense has struggled against mobile QBs and Miami has one in Aveon Smith (with Brett Gabbert out). A double digit dog with a total this low is attractive. Take the points. 8*

Since 2005, no double digit favorite has lost a Power 5 Conference Championship Game (22-0 SU, 13-9 ATS). So Michigan should feel pretty comfortable about its path to the College Football Playoff. Honestly, even if they lost this game, they’d probably still end up in the top four.

I don’t think the Wolverines will lose this game outright, but I also don’t think we’ll be getting a repeat of last year’s Big 10 Championship Game where they destroyed Iowa 42-3 as a 12-point favorite.

As is the case here, Michigan was off a win over Ohio State and staring at a playoff berth going into last year’s title game. But they were also looking to make a statement on a national level and weren’t guaranteed a top four spot as they are here.

Last year, most looked at the number and thought Iowa was getting too many points. No one is saying that about an 8-4 Purdue team that sort of lucked into the Big West title. But I look for the Boilermakers to be competitive in this spot.  They are 7-6 SU vs. Top 25 opponents the last five years and have beaten Top 5 teams in the past. Also, teammates will rally around QB Aidan O’Connell, whose brother tragically passed away. 

Unranked underdogs have fared well recently in Conference Championships, going 14-6 ATS when matched up with a Top 25 opponent. Michigan is dealing with the distraction of felony gun charges being brought against DT Smith. RB Blake Corum is officially done for the season. Too many points here. 10* 

This is 1 of 5 regular season rematches this weekend. In case you were wondering, there’s been no real significant ATS edge for either team - the regular season winner or loser - in this situation. At least going back to 2005 there hasn’t been. That said, I do like Fresno State here to avenge a 40-20 regular season loss that took place right here on the blue turf.

The Bulldogs were 10.5-point underdogs when they came to Boise on October 8th. But some context must be provided. They were without QB Jake Haener and the drop off to the backup is significant. It was also FSU’s third straight road game and they’d been out East (UConn) the week prior. 

Fresno State hasn’t lost since, winning seven in a row and scoring 30 or more in each of the last six games. Haener is now back. The team won comfortably, 30-0, last week at home over Wyoming.

Boise State has also gotten a lot better since 10/8, thanks to Dirk Koetter being elevated to offensive coordinator and a change at QB to Taylen Green. The Broncos are 6-1 the last 7 games with the only loss coming out of conference, by a field goal, to BYU. However, they have been shaky in the last two games, winning by only three at Wyoming and then getting a miracle cover last week vs. Utah State. It’s rare that you can say that a team won by 19 points and maybe should have lost outright. But that was the case for the Broncos last week.

The underdog has covered in 7 of the last 8 MWC Championship Games. Fresno State is 4-0 ATS all-time in MWC Champ Games, three of those covers coming against Boise. Eight of the last nine times these teams have played, the underdog has covered. Underdogs have won seven of the nine “Group of 5” title games outright the last two seasons. Take the points here. 10*

Conference USA is up first on Conference Championship weekend as UTSA will HOST North Texas. These teams met in the regular season, here in the Alamodome, with UTSA winning 31-27. But North Texas still was able to cover as a 10-pt underdog. I like them to cover as an underdog again and possibly even win the game outright. The Mean Green are 9-3 ATS on the road since the start of last season.

There were three touchdowns scored in the final 2:36 of that previous meeting, two by UTSA, including the game winner with just 15 seconds left on the clock. So North Texas was THAT close to pulling the outright upset, despite being -19 in first downs (32-13) for the game. I don’t see that FD disparity repeating itself this time. 

Now UTSA comes into this C-USA Title Game on a nine-game win streak overall. They have won all 10 games this season in which they were favored and done so by an average of 16.0 points/game. But that’s a little bit misleading. They had three blowouts over Texas Southern (FCS), La Tech and Rice. As a home favorite this season, UTSA is just 1-4 ATS.

Last week, the Roadrunners had to rally from way back to beat UTEP, 34-31. UTSA admittedly had nothing to play for in that game, but ended up having to score the last 20 points just to get the win. They fell behind 24-0 and got back in the game with a long INT return for TD. 

Including the win over North Texas, UTSA has had a fair number of close calls this season. Five of their wins have come by six points or less, two of those requiring overtime. Unranked underdogs like North Texas are on a 14-6 ATS (70%) run in these conference title games. Give me the points here as underdogs that have failed to cover at least two in a row coming into conference title games (applies to North Texas) are on a 19-4 ATS run, covering the spread by an average of almost 11 points/game.  10*

Just pride on the line here as neither team is heading to the Mountain West Championship Game and both are already bowl eligible.

But Air Force will be motivated. Dating back to 2010, the Flyboys have lost nine straight times to San Diego State and are 2-7 ATS in those games. Most of the recent encounters have been close, however. Five of the last six have been decided by seven points or less. 

San Diego State’s offense has been reborn since a change at QB. However, Jalen Mayden has committed more turnover worthy plays than he has big time throws. Let’s also be honest. Those last two games, which saw the Aztecs score a combined 77 points, were against San Jose State and New Mexico.

Over their past five games, the Air Force defense has allowed just 7, 19, 7, 3 and 12 points. That’s only 48 points total or less than 10.0 per game. On the offensive side, the triple option is the last thing San Diego State wants to see this late in the season, playing a sixth straight game with nothing on the line.

Look for the AFA offense to control the ball in this one and the Falcons to end their long losing streak to SDSU. 8*

Both Notre Dame and USC have gone Over the total in their last five games. But I will be bucking that trend here with my biggest CFB total of the season.

Notre Dame has something that USC hasn’t seen much of this season, that being a good defense. The Fighting Irish are top 30 in scoring, holding opponents to only 20.3 points/contests. Also, no opponent has been able to reach 400 total yards against them. Not even Ohio State. Unlike UCLA, ND has an elite secondary. 

Notre Dame’s offense will also be able to control the football, thanks to the rushing attack. USC is very bad at stopping the run. One of the easiest ways to slow down the Trojans’ offense is to simply keep them off the field. I think the Fighting Irish will be able to do just that.

USC hasn’t beaten Notre Dame since 2016. In the last four meetings, they have been held to 16, 27, 17 and 14 points. As for the USC defense, Notre Dame does not have the kind of passing attack most teams in the Pac 12 do. The Trojans also excel at taking the ball away (#1 in FBS). 

Only two ND opponents have been able to score more than 26 points all season.  The previous high O/U line this season for them was 58.5 vs. Ohio State. That game easily stayed Under. This is only the fifth ND game all year with a total higher than 48.5.  Play the Under. 10*

Coastal Carolina is missing QB Grayson McCall and has the Sun Belt Championship on deck. So that is why the Chanticleers come in as two-touchdown underdogs at James Madison Saturday.

In its first season at the FBS level, JMU was not even eligible to win the Sun Belt nor go bowling. But that hasn’t stopped the Dukes from turning in a highly impressive 7-3 SU campaign and even earning a Top 25 ranking at one point. The only losses came to Louisville, Marshall and Georgia Southern, all in a row. QB Centeio missed the Marshall game due to injury and the offense turned it over five times while against Ga Southern, the Dukes had a 675-590 edge in total yards.

I fully expect JMU to treat this as their “bowl game.” 

The Dukes’ defense is allowing just 82 rush yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry. They allow only 18.6 points/game at home. With a backup QB, Coastal Carolina is really going to struggle to move the ball here. The backup QB (Jarrett Guest) is a huge dropoff from McCall and attempted only 14 passes against Southern Miss. 

Even if McCall were playing Saturday, I’d have the home team favored by a decent amount. They will want to show everyone just who the best team in the Sun Belt “really” is. Lay the points. 10* 

Now seems like a good time to fade Florida State, who has won and covered four straight. But this 4-0 SU/ATS streak has come against Georgia Tech (terrible team), Miami (also terrible), Syracuse (sinking fast) and Louisiana (bad). 

This just seems like a big number to lay in a rivalry game, especially since Florida should come in angry after outgaining Vanderbilt 445-283 last week, but losing on the scoreboard 31-24. The Gators previous four losses had all been to ranked teams and only one (Georgia) was by more than 10 points.

A mounting injury list is a tad bit worrisome for Billy Napier. It includes the Gators’ top two receivers. But I still say they stay within the number here. Look for a lot more designed runs for QB Anthony Richardson this week. Those were notably absent from last week’s playcalling, at least in the first half. By the way, Florida outgained Vandy 7.0 to 4.6 on a per play basis.

The SEC is a much stronger league than the ACC obviously and that’s another reason why FSU probably shouldn’t be favored by this many. Feels like it’s the top of the market on them.

FSU has not beaten Florida since 2017. The Gators are 4-0 ATS as underdogs this season, tied with Ole Miss for the best such mark among SEC schools. Equally as impressive is that UF has also covered each of its last three times off a SU loss. Take the points. 10* 

The winner of this game will finish first in the AAC and host next week’s Conference Championship Game (likely against UCF). This is a spot Cincinnati is pretty familiar with, Tulane not so much. But I expect the Green Wave to come in and get the job done Friday.

Both teams are 9-2 straight up. But from a pointspread perspective, it is clear who has been better. Tulane is 9-2 ATS while Cincinnati is 3-7 ATS.

The Bearcats do have a 32-game win streak here at historic Nippert Stadium that they can lean on. But they are nowhere close to the team that made the College Football Playoff a year ago. Prior to last week’s 23-3 win over hapless Temple, where the Bearcats were +4 in turnovers, they had gone six straight games without covering. That includes narrow wins over East Carolina, SMU and USF that were by a total of 10 points.

Two weeks ago, Tulane lost 38-31 at home to UCF. But that is the only blemish on the Green Wave’s resume over the last two months. They bounced back in a major way from that UCF loss, crushing SMU 59-24 last Thursday. This is a team that went to Kansas State and won back in September! 

Cincy QB Ben Bryant is dealing with a foot injury and may not be able to go here. That seems pretty significant. Even if Bryant can go, I still expect Tulane to win handily. The Green Wave struggled with a mobile QB (Plumlee) vs. UCF. Cincy doesn’t have that element. 10*

Let’s go with the Under in the Egg Bowl. The number has come down, but I’m still seeing value north of 60 points. Eight of the last nine Egg Bowls, including the last five, have all stayed Under.

Those last five editions of this rivalry have all seen fewer than 60 combined points scored.

There’s disarray in Oxford right now with Lane Kiffin’s future seemingly in doubt. Maybe he stays? Maybe he goes? Regardless, Ole Miss is 1-3 its last four games and through three quarters last week had just six points on the board.

This Mississippi State offense can also run hot and cold. On the road, it’s been mostly the latter as they average just 19.5 points and all four games have gone Under.

In a rivalry like this, there won’t be a ton of points scored. 10*

Miami and Ball State are both looking to get bowl eligible tonight. Both are 5-6 and have struggled down the stretch. But Miami is off a win and (in my opinion) the team more likely to overcome a potential absence on Tuesday. Plus they are at home. 

Ball State lost RB Carson Steele to a concussion last week vs. Ohio. Steele leads the MAC in rushing yards (1376) and is ninth nationally. He has accounted for nearly one-third of Ball State’s total yardage this season. He’d be a huge absence for this offense. But even if he can go, Steele would be facing the MAC’s #1 rush defense. 

Miami won last week despite not having QB Brett Gabbert. Backup Aveon Smith accounted for three touchdowns (two rushing) against Northern Illinois and that was not the first time this season that the RedHawks prevailed with Smith under center. I’m far more confident in the Miami offense without Gabbert than I am Ball State without Steele

I think that the Miami defense will be the difference in this one. Over the last eight games, the RedHawks have allowed 24 points or less seven times. The lone exception was against Ohio, the top team in the MAC right now.

So lay the short number with the home team, who is 15-7 ATS its last 22 games in Oxford. 10*

UNLV is 4-6. That means they must win their last two games to go bowling for the first time since 2013. Facing Hawaii here and then hosting Nevada next week, the odds are in the Rebels’ favor. But can they cover a double digit spread on the road? I say “yes!”

Doug Brumfield is back at QB for UNLV.  This is key. The team is 4-1 when he got hurt on 10/7 vs. San Jose State. They haven’t won since (five straight losses). But they are 2-0 ATS since Brumfield returned, losing a pair of one possession games to San Diego State and Fresno State.

Now it took a late FG for the Rebels to cover last week. They’ll hope to avoid being on the wrong side of such a scenario here. I think they’re fine. Hawaii, even against a weak schedule, is just 2-9 and losing by an average of 17 points/game.

Defensively, Hawaii is atrocious, whether you’re taking against the run or the pass. Brumfield and this UNLV offense should have its way.

Despite the perception of there being some sort of advantage on the island, Hawaii has the second worst home ATS record in the country over the last decade. This game means nothing to the Warriors, who have lost four straight and given up 96 points the last two weeks.

This is a lookahead spot for Ohio State, who is laying four touchdowns with Michigan on deck. I know it’s hard to take a Maryland team you know won’t win, but I make this spread a full field goal lower.

The reason this spread is so large is because Maryland has really struggled the last two weeks, losing 23-10 to Wisconsin and 30-0 to Penn State. It’s now five straight ATS losses for the Terrapins and QB Tagovailoa hasn’t looked right.

But I’m willing to bet Tagovailoa and the Maryland offense can make enough plays this week to stay within a very generous number. The QB had been having a good season. His completion percentage is still at 68.3% with 2152 yards.

Over the last 12 years, Ohio State has covered only twice the week before facing Michigan.

The Buckeyes also just really haven’t faced anyone this season. Their two toughest games, Notre Dame and Penn State, saw them down at halftime. Not saying Maryland will ever be out in front in this game, but they’ll stay close enough. 10*

So here’s a pointspread for you. Army, who is 3-6, is laying two scores to a 6-5 UConn team that has covered seven in a row. If that doesn’t set off “alarm bells” in your head, not much will.

This is a classic letdown spot for a UConn team - that against all odds - is now bowl eligible. That’s something NO ONE expected at the start of the season. The Huskies just stunned a ranked Liberty team 36-33 as a two touchdown home dog for their biggest win in YEARS. I can’t see them coming out with the same intensity for this regular season finale.

Army has scored only 16 points the last two weeks while losing to Air Force and Troy. But on the bright side, the defense surrendered only 23 total points in those two games. The Cadets have allowed 17 or less three of the last four games.

If you’re worried about laying points, look back to the last time that Army was favored. That was four weeks ago against LA Monroe here in West Point. They won 48-24.

UConn was -166 in total yards last week and has gotten two wins against backup QBs this season. The other two wins were against UMass (worst FBS team) and Central Connecticut State (FCS team). Trust me - you’re going to want to LAY the points here. 10*

These are two of the bottom feeders in the AAC. In fact, USF is at the very bottom with an 0-6 record in conference play and 1-9 overall. Last week, they made a coaching change, firing Jeff Scott after a pretty awful run. I thought the Bulls had a somewhat inspired effort for interim Daniel Da Prato against SMU even though they didn’t cover the spread.

They would have covered if not for going for two (down 18). The Bulls are now 3-7 ATS, which is not good, but that’s the same record Tulsa has at the betting window. And USF obviously isn’t the team laying two touchdowns here.

USF was tied with SMU at the half 17-17 last Saturday. Like I said earlier, that’s encouraging as a coaching change typically leads to a short-term spark. The thing with Tulsa is that I don’t see where any spark comes from. They can’t get bowl eligible. They are 1-4 ATS as a favorite in 2022. 

The Golden Hurricane have not gotten much going offensively the last two games. Part of that is an injury to QB Davis Brin, who returned only to leave again last week. The Tulsa offense couldn’t even gain 200 yards against Memphis. 

This is a hold your nose situation, but I just don’t think Tulsa should be laying this many points to ANYBODY at this point of the season. The Golden Hurricane are 0-5 ATS their last five games with four double digit losses. 8*

This is a big game for Tulane. Not only is it their home finale, being played in front of a national TV audience no less, but the Green Wave are off a tough 38-31 loss here to UCF last week. To get a shot at revenge (at UCF) and a place in the AAC Champ Game, Tulane is going to have to win the last two games. I like their chances tonight and will be laying the short number.

Revenge must also be considered when handicapping this matchup. Tulane has lost to SMU seven straight times, but four of the last six losses have been by four points or less. It was a blowout in the Metroplex last season, but that was a much worse Tulane team (that finished 2-10 SU). 

This is Willie Fritz’s best team yet, one that is ranked in the Top 25 of the CFP Rankings. It was an unusually poor defensive effort that cost the Green Wave last week, not to mention falling behind 10-0 just four minutes into the game did not help. I expect a better effort on the defensive side of the ball here, from a group that is still only allowing 18.7 points/game at home. I think this Tulane defense can also limit explosive plays from Tanner Mordecai and the SMU offense.

SMU has won three in a row straight up and covered the number in four straight. But two of those three SU wins came against the bottom-feeders of the AAC (Tulsa, USF). The Mustangs’ defense is a liability coming into this matchup as it has given up 32.6 points/game for the season and 40.0 the L3 weeks. 

Even with the loss last week, Tulane has an excellent home record under Fritz, including 4-1 SU/ATS in finales. Overall, they are 26-10 ATS L36 home games. Two road games in six days is not a great spot for SMU, who was tied at the half last week vs. USF. 10* 

Eastern Michigan got bowl eligible with a 34-28 win against Akron last Tuesday. So from here on out, the Eagles are simply trying to move up the bowl pecking order. They can’t win the MAC West (Toledo has already clinched). 

Meanwhile, going into last week, Kent State knew that it had to win out to get bowl eligible. Well, “step one” was accomplished as the Golden Flashes went to Bowling Green and prevailed 40-6 as 2.5-point chalk. I had the Under in that game, which cashed. Going the same route again here

The Under is 7-3 in all of Kent State’s games this season. Since Oct 1, only one has seen more than 60 combined points scored and that at Toledo. While the Flashes are not where they want to be in the standings, they do have a defense that is very good at holding opponents to field goals (top 20 in red zone efficiency). 

The Eastern Michigan defense tackles well and does not give up a ton of big plays. Since October 1st, the Eagles have allowed more than 28 points only one time and that was a strange game vs. Northern Illinois. 

Each of the previous three seasons these teams met and the Under has gone 3-0. None of the three games saw more than 60 combined points scored. 8* 

The I-75 Trophy is on the line tonight at the Glass Bowl where Toledo hosts rival Bowling Green. Toledo has already wrapped up the MAC West, so these last two games don’t mean much to them. Bowling Green still needs one more win to become bowl eligible. 

Based on the recent history of this rivalry, BG is unlikely to get its sixth win tonight. They’ve lost 11 of the last 12 meetings vs. Toledo including 49-17 last season. The one win over the Rockets came in 2019, at home, as 26.5-point underdogs. Oddsmakers aren’t giving the Falcons much of a shot tonight either with a spread of more than two touchdowns.

Bowling Green’s offense has been very poor of late. Four of the last six games have seen them held to 17 points or less. Last week was a disaster as they got blown out 40-6 at home by Kent State. I cashed the Under in that game as well. 

Toledo was a 28-21 winner last week against Ball State, another game where I cashed in. I had Ball State plus the points. The Rockets are actually 0-3 ATS L3 games and have scored just 27, 27 and 28 points. 

Assuming the Toledo offense doesn’t go “wild” tonight, this game should easily stay Under the number. The BG defense had been pretty good prior to last week. The 40 pts allowed to Kent State matched the number allowed the previous three games combined (18, 13, 9). The Falcons are also among the nation’s leaders in sacks. But the BG offense still stinks and Toledo is allowing only 15.8 PPG at home. Take the Under. 10*

These two SEC programs are in very different places right now. Auburn just made a coaching change and certainly seems to be reinvigorated by interim boss Carnell “Cadillac” Williams. Texas A&M was supposed to contend for a national title this year. They are now 3-6 and look to be playing out the string.

Now Auburn shares that same 3-6 record. But they showed me something by coming back from an early three touchdown deficit to force overtime last Saturday in Starkville. Keep in mind Williams was on a short week and wasn’t even named coach until Monday. It’s amazing his team got to overtime against a team like Mississippi State.

The Tigers can put up points. They’ve averaged more than 31 the L3 games. Texas A&M can’t do anything offensively. They’ve been better recently, but have used three different quarterbacks and have yet to score more than 28 points in any game.

The A&M roster is severely depleted right now due to injuries and suspensions. This is the program’s first five-game losing streak since 1980. I am just not sure how much they care. Auburn is also on a five-game slide, but Williams seems to have them reinvigorated and being at home this week, it’s looking like “War Eagle.”

Auburn has covered seven of the last eight times they’ve been home chalk of 3.5 points or less. 10*

Ok. So UAB didn’t work out last week. But now QB Dylan Hopkins is set to return and I love the Blazers in this spot hosting North Texas.

With North Texas on a 6-0 ATS win streak, they have become overvalued. Conversely, UAB is on a 0-4 ATS losing skid and is approaching peak value. Before last week’s 2OT loss to UTSA, the Blazers were 11-0 ATS at home off a loss.

UAB had the 553-494 edge in total yards vs. UTSA. The return of Hopkins just makes the offense even more dynamic. 

With LSU on deck, UAB MUST win this game to have a shot at bowl eligibility. North Texas already has its six wins, most of them coming against bad teams.

Key here will be UAB’s ability to run the ball. On the road, North Texas is giving up 214 rush yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. 10*

Coming off a giant win over Clemson, this looks to be a classic letdown spot for Notre Dame, who is back in the CFP Top 25. While the Fighting Irish are 9-1 SU the L10 games vs. Navy, they are just 5-5 ATS. 

A service academy getting this many points is typically an attractive option as they will look to control the clock and thus it’s difficult for the favorite to build any kind of margin. The numbers bear this out as Army, Navy & Air Force are a combined 40-22-2 ATS when getting 14 or more points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, the total for this game is only 42. So getting more than two touchdowns feels like a real nice luxury to have. 

Yes, the Irish did just beat Clemson by three touchdowns. But as a double digit favorite, Marcus Freeman’s team is 0-4 ATS with outright losses to both Marshall and Stanford. They also failed to cover against UNLV and Cal.

By a variety of metrics, Navy’s defense is pretty strong against the run. Those metrics include yards per rush, line yards and stuff rate. Conversely, ND’s defense is a lot weaker against the run than the pass. We know what Navy will look to do on offense here. 

Notre Dame will almost certainly win this game. But look for it to be closer than the experts think. 10* 

East Carolina will come into historic Nippert Stadium (where Cincinnati has won 31 straight) on a three-game win streak and off a bye. Last time out they snapped a four-game Friday night losing streak with a 27-24 upset of BYU. It was the Pirates’ second straight win as a dog, having previously upended UCF 34-13 as a six-point home dog. 

Now ECU looks for its first win at Cincy since 2001. They’ve lost 10 of 11 overall to the Bearcats including four straight. It was a 35-13 final last year in Greenville. But that was of course to a Cincinnati team that went on to become the first “Group of Five” team to ever make the College Football Playoff.

This year has seen the Bearcats have real problems covering the spread. They are just 1-5-1 ATS the last seven games after failing to cover Saturday vs. Navy. They came in as 18.5-point favorites but won just 20-10. 

The Bearcats’ three games prior to that were all decided by four points or less. One of those saw them favored by 27 at home vs. a terrible South Florida team. Due to being one of the most penalized teams in the country, it’s been very difficult for Cincy to win by any kind of margin this year.

At this point of the season, I simply believe that East Carolina is the better football team here. They are certainly more than capable of ending Cincy’s long home win streak. QB Holton Ahlers has completed over 70 percent of his pass attempts for 2,632 yards. 

It has been a disappointing season for Louisiana, who was 13-1 in 2021. It’s not like a dropoff wasn’t expected. Billy Napier hightailed it for Florida and they had to replace their QB and four starters along the offensive line. But a 4-5 SU record through nine games is certainly NOT what the Ragin Cajuns were expecting.

Meanwhile, Georgia Southern has already exceeded last year’s win total (3) and now has its eyes on bowl eligibility for first year head coach Clay Helton. There has been a radical transformation on offense with Helton jettisoning the triple option for an “Air Raid” and the result has been 36.2 points/game. 

Both teams are coming off losses, though Louisiana is in worse shape having dropped five of seven overall. Georgia Southern looked to have South Alabama beat (were up 21-7 in the first quarter) but gave up two touchdowns in the fourth to lose 38-31. They only trailed for the final 5:50 of the game. 

Louisiana also fell apart late in last week’s loss, getting outscored 16-0 by Troy in the fourth quarter to lose 23-17.

So we’ve got two teams off disappointing losses, but Georgia Southern is clearly more enthusiastic about where it’s at right now. I’m taking the points here as I think the Louisiana defense is going to struggle at slowing down the Eagles’ offense. Except for one game vs. Arkansas State, the Ragin Cajuns have not gone over 24 points since September. Take the points. 10*

Buffalo had a five game win streak (SU and ATS) snapped last week in Athens as they fell to Ohio 45-24 as a 2.5-point road favorite. While it was a nice run, the Bulls are a team that has had some good luck go their way, whether you’re opposing quarterbacks being out or turnovers. 

Central Michigan picked up a much needed win last week, beating Northern Illinois 35-22 as a 4.5-point road underdog. The Chippewas still have a chance to go bowling, but that would require winning out. They must get better at protecting the football though. Each of the last two games have seen CMU turn it over four times.

I believe the home team will be able to control the trenches in this game. RB Lew Nicholls III returned last week but it was actually backup QB Jase Bauer that led the way with 109 yards rushing. On the defensive side, CMU has been one of the best teams at stopping the run. Buffalo’s defense is 89th nationally in yards allowed.

Not only did Central Michigan’s offensive line pave the way for 245 rushing yards last week against Northern Illinois, but they also did not give up a single sack. 

CMU is 5-0 ATS the last five times it has been off a game with 200-plus yards rushing. Buffalo is 1-7-1 ATS off its previous nine SU losses. 10* 

Bowling Green’s win over Western Michigan was not high-scoring to say the least. The Falcons won 13-9, the latest in a string of impressive defensive performances. The last three games have seen BGSU allow just 13, 18 and 9 points.

Kent State’s offense has been disappointing this year. They are putting only 20.0 points/game on the road (where they are 0-5). Injuries continue to play a role. The Golden Flashes’ top two receivers are both banged up right now. Dante Cephas did not play against Ball State last week and Devontez Walker left due to an injury. It is unknown if either will play tonight. 

Now the Bowling Green offense isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders either. In three of their last four games, they have not topped 17 points. The game where they scored 34 on Central Michigan, the Falcons forced four turnovers and returned a fumble for a touchdown.

Only one of Kent State’s last six games has gone Over. That was against Toledo, who put up 52 points on them. Bowling Green is not Toledo.

The Under is now 11-4 in Bowling Green’s last 15 games. 10*

The last two games for Toledo have seen wild comebacks, one go their way and one not go their way. Three Saturdays ago, they were up 27-10 on Buffalo heading into the fourth quarter. They ended up losing that game 34-27 due to six turnovers. The following week, with a backup QB, they came from behind to defeat Eastern Michigan 27-24. 

There is uncertainty over who is going to be the starting QB for the Rockets tonight. Dequan Finn, who got injured at the end of the Buffalo game and is in the running for MAC Offensive Player of the Year, is questionable. Backup Tucker Gleason threw three touchdowns last week vs. EMU. 

Regardless of who is playing quarterback, Toledo is clearly capable of putting points on the board. But tonight they run into a Ball State defense that has held four straight opponents to 21 points or fewer. The Cardinals picked up a huge 27-20 win last Tuesday at Kent State as seven-point underdogs. That sets this game up as likely to decide who represents the MAC West in the Conference Championship.

Ball State is 3-2 in conference play, one game behind Toledo, who is rightly considered the class of the conference. But I think this spread is too high given the uncertainty at QB. Even if Finn does return, there has to be some concern over how effective he can be. 

The area where I expect Ball State to be effective on offense is running the ball. If you remove a game vs. Central Michigan, this Toledo defense has poor numbers against the run. Four opponents have run for 200+ yards on them, including the likes of UMass and San Diego State. The Cardinals are also much better than the Rockets when it comes to not turning the football over. You’re going to want to take the points in this edition of Tuesday night MAC-tion. 9* 

Wake Forest and NC State are both Top 25 teams that come into Saturday sporting identical 6-2 straight up records. But at the betting window, it’s been a different story for these ACC rivals. Wake Forest is 6-2 ATS while NC State is 2-6 ATS. 

Two Thursdays ago, NC State found itself down 21-3 at home to sorry Virginia Tech. But thanks to a QB change, the Wolfpack rallied for the 22-21 win. MJ Morris was the spark, coming in and throwing for three touchdowns. Morris completed 69% of his passes for 265 yards in the second half alone vs. Va Tech. With Devin Leary out for the season, NC State looks to have found its answer at QB1. 

Wake Forest is coming off an awful 48-21 loss at Louisville where they turned the ball over eight times, including six in the third quarter alone. The Demon Deacons’ only previous loss was in double overtime to Clemson, but I am skeptical of this team. The offense remains one-dimensional (can’t run the ball) and I believe that the NC State defense can slow down QB Sam Hartman.

NC State should not be an underdog in this game. They have won 15 straight at home, which is the sixth-longest home win streak in the nation currently. Wake Forest hasn’t won here in Raleigh since 2018. 

The Wolfpack are undervalued right now due to a five-game ATS losing skid and not having Leary. But Morris looks to be the real deal and you should take the points here. 10*

Tennessee is the definition of a “public underdog” this week. I will look to take advantage of that perception and fade the undefeated Volunteers in this spot as they visit fellow unbeaten, and reigning national champion, Georgia.

We all know that Tennessee’s offense has been great in 2022. But when they faced Georgia last year, things did not go so well. QB Hendon Hooker averaged just 6.6 yards per attempt (he’s averaging 10.6 YPA this season, for a frame of reference) and the Vols lost 41-17.

Georgia did lose a great deal of production to the NFL, but they remain quite strong on the defensive side of the ball. They are fourth nationally in success rate and fifth in EPA. Opposing offenses average only 4.6 yards per play against them.

Look for Kirby Smart and the Georgia coaching staff to slow the tempo of this game way down. The Bulldogs are already bottom 25 in the country in tempo. They will look to play “keep away” from the Tennessee offense. 

The last time a top-two team was an underdog of at least eight points was Notre Dame in the 2020 ACC Championship Game. The Fighting Irish lost by 24 to Clemson. Georgia makes a statement here. 8*

UCF has definitely had Memphis’ number through the years, winning 14 of the 16 all-time matchups. But the last time the Golden Knights paid a visit to the Liberty Bowl, which was 2020, they lost an insane 50-49 game. For Memphis, that ended a 13-game losing streak to UCF!

UCF won last year at “The Bounce House” 24-7 as a two-point dog. They come into this year’s meeting off a thrilling 25-21 win over Cincinnati, ending their own long losing streak to the Bearcats. But that win came with a cost. Starter John Rhys Plumleee was knocked out of that game with a concussion. Backup Mikey Keene may have engineered a game-winning drive, but he’s a pretty clear downgrade from Plumlee. 

Even though they have lost three in a row, this is a great spot to take the points with Memphis, who is coming off a bye. Two of those three losses were by a total of three points, one of them a four overtime game. The other was a blown lead late against Houston that involved an onside kick. There probably is also no shame in losing by 10 at Tulane, who is #19 in the initial CFP rankings.

Tigers QB Seth Henigan has a 15-5 TD-INT ratio and has played well this season.

No matter who ends up playing QB for UCF here, give me the points. Memphis is a perfect 6-0 ATS as a dog going back to 2017. 10*

UAB and UTSA are the last two C-USA Champions. UTSA won the conference last season and along the way picked up a crazy 34-31 win (at home) over UAB with the game-winning touchdown coming in the final minute on a tipped pass. Previous to that, the Roadrunners had lost four straight times to the Blazers. They have never won here in Birmingham.

Heading into November, UTSA is sitting pretty atop the C-USA standings. They are the only team without a conference loss. UAB is just 2-3 in league play as a number of extenuating circumstances have gone against them.

With QB Dylan Hopkins sidelined with a concussion, UAB has lost two in a row. They still should have beaten Western Kentucky (lost 20-17) and then outgained Florida Atlantic in a 24-17 defeat. Yet they could very well go off as a favorite here, just as they have been for every game this season.

Hopkins is questionable for Saturday, which would mean Jacob Zeno under center again. That combined with the fact UTSA is coming off a bye will lead many to believe the Roadrunners are the “right” side here. I disagree. UAB’s offense should be able to move the ball effectively, no matter who the QB is. I like RB DeWayne McBride (#1 in the nation in yards per game) a lot. The Blazers’ defense will be the best UTSA has seen this season, besides Texas. 

UAB is a very unfortunate 0-4 in one-score games this season. No team in the country has fallen further short of their postgame expected win total. UTSA on the other hand is 3-1 in one-score games including 31-27 over North Texas two weeks ago. I think this is a get right game for UAB, who is a perfect 11-0 ATS at home when off a loss. 10*

Oregon State comes into Friday night ranked #23 in the country, but is a short underdog on the road to unranked Washington. Last season, the Beavers snapped a nine-game losing streak to the Huskies, winning 27-24 as 2.5-point favorites. Now they go for their first win in Seattle since 2008.

OSU opened 2022 with three straight wins and covers. But then they fell to both USC and Utah. No shame there as those are two of the 15 best teams in America. Since then, the Beavers have rallied for a second three-game win streak, albeit against Stanford, Washington State and Colorado.

Washington opened the season at 4-0 and was ranked in Top 25. They are also now 6-2 with the losses coming on the road to UCLA and Arizona State. The Huskies have been favored in every game. QB Michael Penix Jr leads the country in passing yards, but is likely to encounter some resistance here as OSU’s defense gives up only 230.6 passing yards/game. 

Oregon State’s offense is #1 in the conference in yards per pass attempt and #3 in rushing. I don’t think they’ll have much trouble moving the ball against a Washington defense that has allowed three of its last four opponents to score 39 or more.

Weather could be an issue here. But look for OSU to stop turning the ball over so much. They were -8 in TO’s in their two losses. Washington has forced just one turnover in its last four games. Take the points in a game where I've got the two teams rated pretty evenly. 10*

This is hardly the most ideal matchup for Friday night College Football (or any other day for that matter!) but the Under is absolutely worth playing here as UConn takes on UMass. 

These are two of the worst teams in the country, although UConn could actually end up in a bowl after winning three of their last four games to get to 4-5 on the year. All four of those games have stayed Under with the last one - a 13-3 win over Boston College - being the lowest scoring yet. 

UMass is the worst team in the entire FBS. The Minutemen’s lone victory was against FCS Stony Brook. There’s been just one game where they scored more than 20 points and only two where they topped 13. This Minutemen offense is not a threat to pass as they are dead last in the country with only 78.8 YPG. 

UConn gained only 280 yards in the win over Boston College, so they aren’t exactly going to be chucking the ball all over the field either. The Huskies are averaging just 17.6 points/game. Only two times have they scored more than 14 against a FBS team all season. 

UMass is 5-1 to the Under in its last six games while UConn is 4-0 its last four. It’s as simple as that with the two offenses combining to average just over 30 points/game. 8*

This Thursday night matchup out of the Sun Belt figures to turn into a shootout. Visiting Appalachian State comes in off back to back 42-point efforts and is averaging 36.9 points/game on the year. Host Coastal Carolina averages 31.9 points/game. Offense, not defense, is the strong suit for both of these teams.

The App State rushing attack is now in full force with both Nate Noel and Camerun Peoples healthy. The duo ran for 237 yards against Georgia State almost two weeks ago. Three of the last four games, the Mountaineers have run for at least 247 yards as a team. QB Chase Brice is also having a decent year.

But the ASU defense has struggled when not facing FCS opponents. They gave up 36 points in a loss to Texas State the last time they played on the road. They also allowed 32 in a loss to James Madison and don’t forget about the 63 points North Carolina scored on them.

Coastal Carolina has QB Grayson McCall, who is completing 68.8% of his throws in 2022. McCall has passed for over 2000 yards already with 19 touchdowns against only one interception. 

But, as is the case with their opponents, the Chanticleers’ defense is a concern. They allowed over 400 yards to Marshall in a misleading win last weekend and the game before that saw Old Dominion score 49 on them. 

Both of these teams should go over 30 points Thursday night. Play the Over. 

All three of Kent State’s wins this season have been at home. Fortunately for them, they are playing at Dix Stadium tonight against Ball State. But, having yet to cover a single spread in MAC play, I’m not about to lay a touchdown with the Golden Flashes in this spot. 

Nor am I all that interested in taking the points with Ball State. The Cardinals enter in at 4-4 SU, but the three wins over FBS opponents have come by a combined 11 points.

What I am interested in doing, however, is playing the Over. Both offenses are pretty good at doing one thing and the opposing defenses just so happen not to be very good at stopping that one thing.

Kent State was forced to turn to a true freshman backup QB in their last game, but this is an offense that will look to run the ball no matter what. Ball State is second worst in the MAC, allowing 185.4 rushing yards/game. Earlier in the season, the Golden Flashes posted nearly 800 total yards against Ohio.

Ball State’s offense will look to air it out and this is a good matchup to do that as the Kent State defense is second worst in the conference in passing yards allowed. Every FBS opponent has scored at least 27 points on the Golden Flashes. Play the Over in this one. 10*

South Carolina is now ranked after wins against Kentucky and Texas A&M. Kentucky did not have its starting quarterback and A&M got itself into an early 17-0 hole. But even after being up three scores just a couple minutes into the game, the Gamecocks could not pull away last week. They were outgained by more than 100 yards. 

Missouri should have won at Florida and Auburn. They stayed within four points of Georgia. Last week saw them finally break back into the win column, beating Vanderbilt 17-14. As 14-point favorites in that game, the TIgers obviously didn’t cover. But now we’re getting them as underdogs.

There’s a lot to like about the Mizzou defense. Over the previous five games, they’ve allowed less than 100 points. No one has scored more than 26. 

The last three times these teams played, Missouri has gone 3-0 SU and ATS. They went off as the favorite each time. This will be the first time South Carolina has been favored over Missouri since 2016.

An obvious letdown spot for the Gamecocks after their first ever win over Texas A&M. They are 1-5 ATS L6 and 0-3 L3 as a ranked team. Missouri is better than its record and its defense can keep SC (just 286 yards last week) in check. Grab the points. 

California has been very good as an underdog under Justin Wilcox. The Bears have covered 17 of the 20 times they’ve gotten 7 points or more from the oddsmakers. Overall, Wilcox boasts a 23-9-1 ATS record when catching points. He’s won 13 of those games outright, covered four straight times as a home dog and three straight times as a double digit dog. 

His team covered last week as a dog, only losing by 7 to Washington. That was also here in Berkeley. Earlier in the day, Oregon posted its signature win of the season, holding off UCLA 45-30 in Eugene. Does that result make this a bit of a letdown spot for the Ducks? Probably.

Cal has lost three straight and four of five. But only one of those losses was by greater than seven points. 

Oregon’s pass defense also isn’t great. You may not have noticed with all the points the offense has put up. But I expect Cal to put a decent number of points on the board. In two previous road games, the Ducks allowed a combined 63 points. They lost their last trip into Berkeley (back in 2020). 

The Cal defense is not bad! They held Washington without a touchdown for two-and-a-half quarters last week. Grab the points.

Rice had a 5-game ATS win streak snapped last week. They still won the game, 42-41 at Louisiana Tech, but were 2.5-point favorites. It was the first time all season that the Owls were favored to defeat a FBS opponent. Yet surprisingly, they come into this game with Charlotte sporting a 4-3 SU record.

Now the Owls are favored again, only this time by three scores. If you can’t remember the last time Rice was a favorite of this size, let me help you out. It was last year against Texas Southern. They were -34 and only won 48-34. Before that, it was the 2018 season opener against Prairie View A&M. They were -19 and won just 31-28. It’s been a very long time since a Rice team was a favorite of this size over a non-FCS team.

So who is Rice playing this week? That would be Charlotte, who is coming off a loss to FIU that got their head coach fired. The 49ers were actually a double digit favorite last week (-14) but turned it over five times in the 34-15 loss. You can’t say a lot of positive things about this Charlotte team. But they do bring the element of surprise with a new head coach into this game.

Recently, we’ve seen several schools turn in inspired efforts following a coaching change. Arizona State, Georgia Tech, Colorado and WIsconsin all won their first games. All but Wisconsin were underdogs. 

But at the end of the day, this is a clear fade on Rice. They shouldn’t be favored by this many points against anybody. Not even Charlotte.

This is a rough spot for Syracuse, who last week suffered their first loss of the season (at Clemson) and also probably saw their ACC Championship hopes go out the window as well.

The Orange had been favored in five of their first six games. But still it was a surprise to see them 6-0 and ranked #14 in the country heading into Death Valley last week It was a close game they ended up losing 27-21, but it seems pertinent to mention that ‘Cuse got outgained 450-291 and was -10 in first downs. If not for four Clemson turnovers, it probably wouldn’t have been much of a game.

Notre Dame started the year ranked in the Top 5. However, three losses have them out of the Top 25  entirely. The Fighting Irish are the only team in the country to lose two different games as a double digit favorite (Marshall, Stanford). Their other loss came in the opener at Ohio State. Nothing wrong with that one. The Irish even led 10-7 at the half in Columbus. It was a four-point game late into the fourth quarter. 

In terms of margin of victory, last week was Notre Dame’s biggest win of the season. They beat UNLV 44-21. But they didn't cover the 26-point spread. Now as an underdog though, they are worth backing. The Fighting Irish are 12-3 ATS the last 15 games against Top 25 opponents, including 2-0 this season. Wins over North Carolina and BYU were more impressive than they look, just judging from the final score. 

This will be the first time these teams have played since 2003. I expect ND to run the ball effectively. Since the start of 2020, no team in the country has a better ATS road record than the Fighting Irish, who are 8-2. They have covered each of the last three times as a road underdog. 10*

TCU lucked out with Kansas State having to use three different quarterbacks last week. At home, the Horned Frogs battled back from a 28-10 deficit to get the win and cover as 3.5-point chalk. But this is going to be the sixth straight Saturday TCU has been on the field. Four of the previous five have been close. Can they stay undefeated? Possibly. But I don’t like them laying this many points in Morgantown. 

West Virginia, the last time they played in Morgantown, beat Baylor 43-40. That’s the only time they’ve played at Neyland Stadium since mid-September. This will be the first Saturday game in Morgantown since 9/17.  Things got bad in a 38-10 loss last week at Texas Tech. But I believe that sets us up to get a great value here on the Mountaineers. 

I know that the WVU defense isn’t great. But TCU’s offense is coming off a stretch of five games where they had to come from behind to win three different times. They are just the second team since 1996 to come back from a 17-point deficit in consecutive weeks against Top 25 opponents. 

Plus, I’ve got to mention all the backup quarterbacks the Horned Frogs have gotten to face. Each of their last four games have seen the opponents’ starting QB get injured! 

Sonny Dykes has traditionally not fared well when his teams are ranked, on the road and facing an unranked opponent. He is only 1-10 ATS in that spot. West Virginia is on a 4-1 ATS run vs. Top 25 teams. TCU has also lost the last four meetings to WVU and failed to cover six straight. 

This is a tough trip for East Carolina, heading West for a non-conference game. The last two weeks have seen the Pirates win a 4 OT game over Memphis and then clobber Central Florida. This will be the Pirates’ ninth straight game without a bye. How much are they going to have left in the tank? 

BYU, on the other hand, is desperate for a win. They have lost four of their six games and just got embarrassed 41-14 at Liberty. They have failed to cover the spread in six consecutive contests. 

By virtue of being an independent, BYU plays a tough schedule. So far they have faced Baylor, Oregon, Notre Dame and Arkansas. ECU has played only one P5 team and that resulted in a one-point home loss to NC State. 

Because of Hurricane Ian rescheduling a game vs. USF, East Carolina has only had to play one true road game thus far. They lost it, 24-9 at Tulane. Don’t discount the high altitude at Provo as being a major factor tonight, in addition to this being a much further trip West than usual for the Pirates. 

Friday night would also seem to be an advantage for the home team. BYU is 5-0 ATS its last five Friday night contests while East Carolina is 1-9 ATS its previous 10. Lay the short number with the desperate home team. The Cougars need this one if they are to become bowl eligible. 10* 

Utah has seen five of its seven games this season go Over the total. Over the last three, the Utes have scored 42 or more twice while also allowing that many two different times in the same span. So it’s mostly been high scoring games for them.

Now the opposite can be said for Washington State, who comes into Thursday having seen six of its first seven games stay Under the total. The last two games have seen the Cougars score a total of just 24 points and they lost at USC and at Oregon State. 

Utah’s offense actually hasn’t been all that explosive, despite putting up a lot of points in recent games. Wazzu has the Pac 12’s #1 scoring defense as they allow only 20.7 points/game. Oregon and USC are the only teams to score more than 24 on the Cougs. 

While the Utes’ defense has been a tad bit disappointing in 2022, they are still #1 in the conference at defending the pass. Washington State’s offense is last (in the Pac 12) at running the ball, so it may be a struggle for them to move the ball in this one. They only average 24.6 points/game to begin with. 

So this Thursday night matchup has all the makings of an Under for me. Only one game involving Wazzu this season has seen more than 45 total points scored. 10*

You’ve all heard how much trouble Mississippi State has had scoring on Alabama in the past. Over the last 10 meetings, the Bulldogs have been held to single digits (9 pts or less) eight different times by the Crimson Tide defense. The most points MSU scored in any of those games was 24. 

But this isn’t the same Mississippi State offense nor is it the same Alabama defense. The Crimson Tide are wounded right now after losing 52-49 at Tennessee last week. MSU comes in averaging 35.4 points per game.

The Bulldogs also arrive in Tuscaloosa off a loss, 23-13 at Kentucky last week. But in each of the previous three games, they had scored 40 or more. In all five wins this season, they’ve scored at least 39. The two losses have been a different story, but with a generous spread this week, we’re not likely to need a 40-point effort to cover.

Alabama has already been in three games that came down to the final possession, all of them decided by four points or less. Then there’s this stat: Nine of Bama’s last 15 SEC games have been decided by single digits. That’s after the previous 53 saw just 9 such games. 

Saban is being overvalued off a loss here because of what he has done in the past. These teams are a closer than the spread would indicate. I’ve got the underdog comfortably staying within three touchdowns. 10*

Utah’s win over USC last week really opened up the Pac 12 race. Now the only two Pac 12 teams without a conference loss will meet in Eugene as #10 Oregon hosts #9 UCLA. The Bruins are a perfect 6-0 on the season while the Ducks have won five in a row since being blown out by Georgia in the first game.

UCLA is just 3-14 straight up the last 17 meetings with Oregon and has not won here in Eugene since 2004. So history is not on Chip Kelly’s side as he returns to his old stomping grounds. Also working against the Bruins is Kelly’s 0-5 record vs. Top 10 teams since coming to Westwood. They’ve lost those five games by an average of 23.6 points/game.

But this is obviously the best Bruins team we’ve seen in awhile. So I’m focusing on the total. 

Now both offenses come in averaging 41 points/game. So the expectation here will be for another Pac 12 shootout, like what we saw last week from USC & Utah. But with both of these teams coming off a bye, the defenses have had extra time to prepare and I believe this game is going to stay Under the total. The Under is in fact a perfect 6-0 the last six times Oregon has been off a bye.

Having such a high total is a boon. I just don’t see both offenses going for 35+ in such a marquee matchup where both coaching staffs have had two weeks to prepare. It may seem “contrarian” but Under is the call here. 8*

Similar to UCLA-Oregon, this is a very “contrarian” call, asking for these two SEC powerhouses to go Under. LSU just dropped 45 in a win at Florida last week while Ole Miss has now scored 100 points in its last two games.

Furthermore, the Over has cashed 12 times in the last 17 Ole Miss-LSU meetings. But not last year as Rebels won 31-17, ending a five-game losing streak to the Tigers. The total for last year’s game was a whopping 76.5! 

The number isn’t quite as high this year. But it’s still high for two teams that are going to be running the ball a lot. That means the clock will keep moving and, absent the big play, fewer scoring opportunities.

LSU’s defense did have problems allowing big plays against Florida, which is why they didn’t win in a more convincing fashion. But I still have a strong belief in the Tigers’ stop unit, which is still in the top 20 in terms of success rate against both the run and pass. Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart has had two big games, but those were against Central Arkansas and Georgia Tech. This will be the best defense that the Rebels have seen so far in 2022. 

LSU’s offense may have scored 45 points last week, but they scored just 34 in the previous two games combined. The Tigers are 5-0 to the Under the last five times they’ve been off a straight up win. Furthermore, the Under is 12-3 in Ole Miss’ last 15 games overall and while they struggled to stop the run vs. Auburn last week, the Under is 7-0 the L7 games where the Rebels allowed 200+ rush yards the previous week. 8*

The last five Wisconsin games have all gone Over the total. But unlike four weeks ago, when they allowed 52 points, they aren’t facing the Ohio State offense here. Nor are they facing the Northwestern defense, whom they scored 42 on two weeks ago, right after the coaching change. Last week’s final score vs. Michigan State, a 34-28 loss, is misleading as the game went to double overtime. It was 21-21 at the end of regulation.

The first three weeks of the season, admittedly vs. lesser competition, the Badgers defense allowed an average of just 8.0 points/game. The only other game of theirs I’ve yet to mention was the one that got Paul Chyrst fired. That was a 34-10 home loss to Illinois. That final score is less than the total here.

In fact, the only Wisconsin game to date with a higher O/U line than this one was against Ohio State. I realize that Purdue has put up some impressive offensive numbers of late, especially last week, but this number is too high. 

Purdue has lost 15 straight times to Wisconsin and their last win in Madison was back in 2003. So this has not been a successful matchup for them in the past. 

Despite all the offense, the Boilermakers didn’t cover the spread last week as they were 14-point favorites against Nebraska. The Under is on an 8-1 when this team is off an ATS loss. They’ve also gone Under in 19 of 28 road games. 

Only two of Wisconsin’s seven games have seen 50+ points scored in regulation. That was the loss to Ohio State and vs. a terrible New Mexico State team, whom they ran over for 66 points. Nothing like that here. 8*

Cincinnati is 5-1 all-time vs. SMU and has won all three meetings here in Dallas. With those six games averaging just 53 points, the Under is a perfect 6-0. 

Because of injuries, this could be another low-scoring affair between these teams. But despite being off a bye, Cincinnati, who became the first ever “Group of Five” team to make the College Football Playoff last January, is far more banged up than SMU is entering Saturday.

QB Bryant is dealing with a concussion and may not play. WR Scott is also injured. RB Corey Kiner missed the last game and on the defensive side, LB Pace was “dinged up” after facing USF. 

Now after a season-opening loss at Arkansas, the Bearcats have climbed back into the Top 25 with five consecutive victories. But while four of those have come by double-digits, they’ve been far from dominant. 

In each of the last two games, the Cincy defense has needed a fourth down stop, deep in their own territory, to hold on for the victory. Against USF, who isn’t a good team, the Bearcats were actually trailing in the 4th quarter as a 26.5-point favorite. They were also able to pull away late against Indiana and Miami OH, the latter playing with a backup QB, in games that were closer than the final scores indicated.

Meanwhile, SMU suffered the ultimate “backdoor cover” last Friday against Navy, allowing a TD with just nine seconds left. The Mustangs still won mind you, 40-34, but as 12.5-point favorites it marked the fifth straight game where they failed to cover. 

The fact Cincinnati is off a bye means less with SMU having an extra day to prepare as well. 

The Bearcats have been very lucky so far in that their opponents are a FBS-worst 1 for 11 on fourth down attempts. SMU’s opponents are 11 of 18 on 4th down attempts. That “luck” is probably due to change.

Remember that Cincinnati lost three defensive backs from last year’s CFP squad to the NFL. SMU QB Mordecai is 11th in the FBS in passing yards and should exploit this secondary with or without WR Rice (missed practice on Wednesday).

Finally, Luke Fickell is just 7-12-1 on the road vs. fellow AAC teams. That includes 3-10 ATS as a favorite. Take the points. 10*

Temple was flat out embarrassed last Thursday night, losing at UCF by a score of 70-13. To say that was a shockingly bad performance by the Owls defense might be the understatement of the century. Consider that in the first five games, they’d surrendered less than 15 points/game! Luckily for this week, Temple faces a far less potent offense. 

Tulsa also got its doors blown off in its last game, losing at Navy 53-21. It was the third straight loss for the Golden Hurricane, whose only FBS win this season has been by three points over Northern Illinois. 

The Tulsa defense lost a lot from a season ago, namely nine starters and the coordinator. So it’s not a surprise to see them struggling on that side of the ball. As for Temple, I’m expecting a big bounce back from their previously stout defensive unit, which had been Top 15 in the country in yards per play allowed.

Now, led by QB EJ Warner (the son of Kurt), the Temple offense has been shaky to say the least. But Tulsa would have scored far fewer points themselves this season if not for tremendous red zone efficiency. Moving forward, the Golden Hurricane probably won’t be able to continue scoring TDs inside the 20 at the same rate they have been. 

I just don’t think that Tulsa is the kind of team that can cover a spread like this on the road. They are 0-3 ATS as favorites vs. FBS teams this season with two outright losses. Temple has the better ATS record on Friday nights through the years and is being undervalued in this spot because of the blowout loss it suffered last week. Take the points. 9*

It has been a wild season for Appalachian State, who has won on a Hail Mary (Troy) and upset Texas A&M in College Station. But they’ve also come up just short after a wild fourth quarter vs. North Carolina and blew a 28-3 lead to James Madison. But fair to say the Mountaineers’ nadir came two Saturdays ago when they were upset at Texas State.

ASU was a 19-point favorite heading into San Marcos, but lost 36-24 with a head-scratching performance that saw them down by as many as 27 at one point. A pick-six by Texas State early in the second half all but sealed the result there. 

Despite outgaining Texas State, it ended up being App State’s second-lowest scoring game of the year. This is an offense that is averaging 35.2 points/game overall and 42.5 at home. I don’t think they’ll have any problems scoring on Georgia State tonight.

Georgia State began the year 0-4 with three of the losses coming at home. But the Pathers have turned it around with back to back wins, beating Army 31-14 and rival Georgia Southern 41-33. Since the opener against South Carolina, they’ve scored an average of 33 points/game.

The Over is a combined 7-5 for these teams in 2022 and has hit in three of the last four meetings. All three Overs saw 61 or more total points scored. Both these teams run the ball well and neither is particularly great defensively. I think this number is too low. Take the Over

Going back to 2015, there have been 15 times where a team is 6-0 SU or better and getting points from a team with two or more losses. Those 15 teams have gone just 3-12 straight up. USC qualifies for the situation this week and, based on that history, I’m fading the Trojans in Salt Lake City.

Utah has taken two tough losses, to Florida and UCLA. Both were games where the Utes were favored on the road. At home though, they’ve lost just once in the last 12 tries. This is still a very good football team and obviously one you should respect, based on them being favored here.

USC has played a pretty light schedule so far with the only road games coming at Stanford and Oregon State. They were held to only 17 points and 359 total yards by Oregon State and were probably lucky to win that game. Even last week at the Coliseum, the 30-14 final over Washington State was a tad bit misleading. It was a three-point game deep into the third quarter but Wazzu’s special teams really betrayed them in that game.

Tough to win at Rice-Eccles at night and I just don’t see Utah losing for a third time as a favorite. Turnovers were a real killer against UCLA, but I don’t see that being a problem here. The Utes also have a great secondary, something a team needs to beat USC.

USC is just 3-12 ATS its last 15 games as a road underdog. That's the third worst in the FBS since 2015. Lay the points in this one. 9*

Clemson is #5 in the country while FSU is unranked, but this smells like an outright upset to me. 

Florida State was 4-0 before losing to Wake Forest and NC State the last two weeks. The Seminoles actually owned the edge in yards per play in both games they lost and should have beaten NC State last week. A terrible decision by QB Travis to throw the ball into the end zone, while down two and in field goal range, resulted in an interception and cost the team the game.

Though Clemson is ranked #5 in the country and a perennial power, this doesn’t feel like the same Tigers’ team we saw during all those runs to the College Football Playoff. Remember they needed overtime to win at Wake Forest. It was a one-score game with NC State two weeks ago.

This sets up as a real “fade the public” type game as the majority of bets are on Clemson, but the number has come down (as of Thursday). Regardless of any further line movement, I’m backing the underdog here. 

FSU definitely should have won on the road last week. The chance to end a six-game losing streak to Clemson should have the ‘Noles extra fired up for this Saturday night home game. The defense has been every bit as good as Clemson’s this year while the offense is averaging a full yard per play more than the Tigers. Take the points. 10*

The Big 12’s two remaining unbeatens collide Saturday afternoon in Fort Worth as #15 TCU plays host to #7 Oklahoma State. My view is that the better team is getting points.

Now TCU is playing at home and we have to respect that. But OSU has covered six straight conference road games and beat the Horned Frogs last season by a score of 63-17 (in Stillwater). 

Both teams were involved in close games last week. Oklahoma State ended up beating an aggressive Texas Tech team 41-31 while TCU outlasted Kansas on the road, 38-31. There’s probably going to be a lot of points scored in this one. But look for the Pokes to score more. The TCU defense has been pretty bad when it comes to allowing explosive plays and OSU QB Sanders is completing over 50% of his pass attempts of 20+ yards.

This is a tougher spot for TCU, who goes from playing on the road (where ESPN College Gameday was present) to now playing its first ranked vs. ranked home game in five years. OSU is more accustomed to these games as they were on the cusp of the CFP last year and have averaged nine wins per season over the last decade for head coach Mike Gundy.

I don’t think TCU should be the favorite here, even with homefield advantage. OK State is the better team and has gone 16-2 SU over its last 18 games with the two losses coming by a combined eight points. Gotta take the points here. 10*

How the mighty have fallen! Oklahoma has lost three in a row for the first time since 1998 and they are 0-3 ATS in those three games, missing the spread by a combined 99 points!  Rarely do we see a three-game stretch like that where the oddsmakers got it so wrong.

So it may be surprising to some that OU is favored here over a Kansas team that was unbeaten going into last Saturday. But here me out, who would have ever thought the Sooners would be a single digit favorite in Norman against a team they’ve beaten 17 straight times? Oh, by the way, the Jayhawks just lost their starting QB. 

All of those 17 straight victories have been by double digits. The last seven times these teams have met, Oklahoma has been favored by at least 32 points. 

Now this is a better Kansas team than usual. But losing QB Daniels is a massive blow to their season. The Jayhawks’ defense also isn’t very good, having allowed a total of 148 points the last five games.

Oklahoma expects to have its starting QB Dillon Gabriel back on the field Saturday. That’s a big plus as the offense clearly struggled without him. I think this is a “get right” game for the Sooners and will lay the points. 10*

Navy is on a 3-0 ATS win streak coming into Friday, all of the covers coming as underdogs. Twice during that stretch, the Midshipmen have won outright. As a 17.5-point dog, they won at East Carolina 23-20. The following week saw them lose 13-10 at Air Force, but they got the cash as 14-point dogs. Last week saw the Middies double their season point total with a 53-21 beatdown of Tulsa in Annapolis. 

That was Navy’s highest scoring game since 2018. Now they head to SMU to face a Mustangs team that has lost three in a row and failed to cover four in a row. 

SMU was outscored 31-6 in the second half by Central Florida last week. Before that, there were losses to TCU and Maryland. As if things weren’t already bad enough, two players have decided to sit out the remainder of the 2022 season with the intention of hitting the transfer portal. 

These offenses are very different. We know what Navy likes to do as they are #1 in the country in rushing attempts per game. SMU prefers to “air it out” and leads the country in passing yards. 

I believe the key to this game will be Navy’s ability to keep the ball away from the SMU offense. The Mustangs defense has been unable to stop the run during the losing streak, giving up close to 200 rush yards per game. So how do you think they’ll fare against Navy? Too many points to pass up tonight. 10* 

There are five Big 12 teams currently ranked in the Top 25. Baylor isn’t one of them, but they should be and I like the Bears laying a short number Thursday night in Morgantown.

Thus far, Baylor has taken a couple of tough losses at home, to BYU (overtime) and Oklahoma State. Those teams are a lot better than West Virginia, who may not even end up in a bowl this year as the Mountaineers are a solid candidate to finish last in the conference.

The WVU defense has allowed 38 or more points to three of the four FBS teams that they’ve faced. They’ve allowed 43.7 points/game in the three losses. Virginia Tech, a horrible offensive team, was the only FBS offense that the Mountaineers have been able to keep in check.

Baylor’s offense has been pretty good thus far, averaging 37.4 points/game. QB Shapen should have plenty of success through the air tonight against a bad WVU pass defense. Before running into OK State, the Bears’ defense had been getting the job done and I expect them to play well tonight. Baylor is 20-4-2 ATS off an ATS loss. 9*

This is a big game for Baylor, who has yet to win in Morgantown (0-5 all-time). But there’s a first time for everything and considering the state of West Virginia football right now, this seems like an obvious time for the Bears to get their first ever win here. WVU will also be without its leading rusher due to a concussion.

You probably don't know this, but Temple has been surprisingly strong on the defensive side of the ball. They rank Top 10 in the country in yards per play allowed! I believe the defense will keep the Owls in this game vs. UCF until the very end, so take the points.

If you only looked at the final score of Temple’s last game, you’d just assume they were dominated by Memphis as it ended up being a 24-3 loss. However, that’s not the case. The Owls shut Memphis out for more than a half with the first points allowed being a TD late in the third quarter. Two of Memphis’ TD drives began in Temple territory.

So as long as Temple’s offense takes better care of the football this week, count on them not giving up many points to UCF. For the season, they are allowing just 16.8 points/game and the most they’ve allowed to any one opponent is 30. With that kind of defense, it’s pretty crazy that we are getting more than three touchdowns here.

Now Temple’s offense is obviously not very good. But UCF was certainly struggling for a while there against SMU last week. The Golden Knights had just 10 points going into halftime before they caught fire coming out of the break. Despite winning 41-19, total yards were basically even in that game and SMU finished with seven more first downs.

UCF is not just 0-4 ATS following their previous four ATS wins, but they are also 0-5 ATS following a straight up win by 20 or more points. This is a good spot to fade them against what has been a surprisingly excellent defense. 10*

It’s an interesting Sun Belt matchup that we’ve got midweek as underachieving Louisiana travels to face a Marshall team that’s 0-3 ATS since their upset of Notre Dame. I’m going to lay the points with the Thundering Herd.

Louisiana has lost three in a row, two of them as favorites. They were 11.5 point favorites in a 33-21 loss at Rice where the offense gained only 275 yards. The following week saw the Ragin Cajuns go to LA Monroe and lose as 9.5-point favorites, 21-17, this time getting outgained by 65 yards. Two Saturdays ago, the Cajuns did cover, as 8.5-point underdogs, but they still lost 20-17 at home to South Alabama.

Now it’s back on the road facing a Marshall team that has an 83-10 scoring edge at home. Now both previous visitors to Huntington were FCS teams. But the Thundering Herd did beat Notre Dame. Louisiana has topped 24 points in only one game this season. Marshall has allowed more than 21 just once. 

This is a big revenge game for Marshall, who lost to Louisiana in the New Orleans Bowl last year, 36-21. This is a much worse Louisana team now though as Billy Napier left for Florida (the NO Bowl was the first game without him) and they had to replace half their starters, including QB, four OL and three LB. 

This is Marshall’s first year in the Sun Belt and they desperately want that first conference win after losing outright to Troy two games ago. The Herd have an excellent defense, one that shouldn’t give up many points to an anemic Louisiana offensive attack. The betting market seems to like the home team big and so do I. 10* Marshall

With Colorado State pulling an outright upset last night, there are only three teams left in College Football without an ATS win. Two reside out in the Pac 12. One of them is Stanford. I am taking the Cardinal plus the points at home in this late Saturday matchup.

Oregon State QB Chance Nolan is questionable to play here. The way he’s turned the ball over the last two games, perhaps the Beavers feel they’d be better off without him. In the losses to USC and Utah, OSU finished -8 in the turnover battle. Tough to win when that happens.

But when you’re Oregon State, it’s tough to win on the road, whether you are turning the ball over or not. The Beavers aren’t just 0-3 ATS as road chalk the last three seasons, they’ve lost all three games outright! And they are just 2-8 SU their L10 road games overall after getting beat 42-16 at Utah last week.

Stanford should not be confused with either USC or Utah, the two teams that beat OSU, but the Beavers aren’t USC, Washington and Oregon, who are the three teams that beat the Cardinal. That’s especially true if the road team has to turn to a backup QB. 

Eventually Stanford has to cover a spread, right? Going back to last year, it’s an inexplicable 0-10 ATS run. They are also due for some better turnover luck and sure enough here comes a team that’s given it away eight times in the last two games. Weird things happen in “Pac 12 After Dark” and I give the home team an excellent shot at pulling the outright upset here. 9*

Kentucky has a big question mark at quarterback as Will Levis (foot) is listed as a game-time decision. Regardless if Levis plays, I am taking South Carolina plus the points here.

The last time we saw Levis, he was coughing up two key fumbles in the red zone last week against Ole Miss. The Wildcats ended up suffering their first loss and the SEC schedule will only get tougher from here on out. 

South Carolina seems revitalized after two straight 50+ point efforts. Granted, the competition was not tantamount to what they’ll face in the SEC. But the Gamecocks now have a lot of confidence heading into Lexington and are the healthier of these two teams. 

Kentucky is not exactly the most impressive 4-1 team in the country to begin with and certainly not the 13th best team in the country. They had to come from behind to win at Florida, couldn’t shake Northern Illinois and even wins over Miami OH and Youngstown State weren’t as dominant as the final scores indicate. Now they may be without their starting QB.

The way this line has been bet certainly tells me that Levis probably isn’t going to play. Either way, take the points with an improving South Carolina outfit. Don’t forget about their QB Spencer Rattler. When not facing Georgia, the Gamecocks have scored at least 30 in every game this season. 10*

So depending on what your closing number was for Michigan-UConn (either 58.5 or 59), the 4th ranked Wolverines are either 4-0-1 to the Under or 4-1. They won that UConn game 59-0. Each of Michigan’s first four games saw at least 58 total points scored. Then they played Iowa last week and it was 27-14.

So save for Iowa, this number is right in line with how previous Michigan games have ended up. The thing is, the Wolverines have played some terrible offenses thus far. Maryland would be the exception and they put up 27 on Jim Harbaugh’s defense. 

While I don’t think Indiana is going to challenge Michigan for an outright upset, I do see the Hoosiers putting up a decent number of points. This is because they play at the fastest tempo in the entire country, running a play every 17.5 seconds. Additionally, IU throws it at one of the highest rates in the country. As they are likely to be trailing most of this game, there’s no doubt QB Bazelak will be airing it out Saturday.

Michigan is scoring 45.4 points/game and should have no problem moving the ball against the Indiana defense, which has allowed 110 points in the last three games. JJ McCarthy is looking good at QB in Ann Arbor and even against Iowa’s good defense, the Wolverines averaged five yards/play.

Looking at the spread, all we need is three touchdowns from Indiana in this game to likely hit the Over. They have scored 21 or more in every game this year. Michigan’s defense isn’t as strong as it was in 2021. Take the Over. 10* 

Tennessee arrives in Baton Rouge ranked #8 in the country and fresh off a bye. But the 4-0 Volunteers are about to face their toughest test to date in the form of a LSU team that is a missed extra point away from being 5-0.

Since losing the opener to Florida State, Brian Kelly has really turned the Tigers around. Now should they have won last week at Auburn? Probably not! But picking up a big road win like that can do wonders for a team. 

QB Daniels is ready to go this week for LSU as is a defense that should offer plenty of resistance to Tennessee’s high-powered offense. Remember that the last time we saw the Vols, they barely escaped Florida, at home. It was a 38-33 final and UT gave up almost 600 yards.

That wasn’t Tennessee’s first close call either. They only won at Pitt by seven and needed OT to do so. This is by no means an impervious outfit coming out of Knoxville, despite the presence of QB Hendon Hooker. 

Here in Baton Rouge, LSU has already beaten a very good Mississippi State team. That’s a better win than anything on Tennessee’s resume. The Vols don’t come here to Baton Rouge often (last visit was 2010) and haven’t beaten LSU in more than 15 years. LSU is 4-0 SU/ATS L4 hosting the SEC East. 8* 

This UNLV-San Jose State matchup on Friday night should turn into a shootout, even with the Rebels down two of their top three receivers.

Just five weeks into the season, UNLV has doubled its win total from the previous two years. Their best way to attack the San Jose State defense in this one would be via the run as the Spartans allow 152 yards/game on the ground, 80th in the country. One of SJSU’s best defenders, Noah Wright, left last week’s game on a stretcher. So UNLV shouldn’t have much difficulty moving the ball in this one.

So far the Rebels are putting up an average of 37.8 points/game. They’ve scored at least 31 on everyone besides California.

But SJSU’s offense has come around with 67 points in wins over Western Michigan and Wyoming the last two games. QB Chevan Cordeiro has been quite effective for the Spartans, throwing for more than 1,000 yards so far and adding another 180 on the ground. Last week, New Mexico QB Miles Kendrick was able to run for 50 yards and two touchdowns. Cordeiro should have a big game.

But UNLV QB Brumfield is pretty good too. This could easily be a game where both teams score 30-plus points. The Over is 15-1 in the Rebels’ last 16 Friday games and cashed last week against New Mexico. The offenses are better than the defenses in this one, so let’s play accordingly. 10*

This game was supposed to be played last Saturday, then Sunday, but Hurricane Ian pushed it back to Wednesday night. SMU is 2-2 after suffering two straight losses while UCF is 3-1 after a win over Georgia Tech. Both offenses are potent in their own ways (SMU - passing, UCF - rushing), but I believe we’re in for a surprisingly “low-scoring” game tonight. By “low-scoring,” I mean Under is the play here.

UCF only racked up 333 total yards against a bad Georgia Tech team in its last game. Take away a blocked punt return and the Golden Knights scored just one touchdown in the game. They’ll mainly look to run the ball in this game, which means the clock is going to keep moving and that’s friendly to the Under cashing.

Now SMU is a pass-heavy offense. But they are likely to encounter some resistance from a UCF defense that has not allowed more than 20 points in any contest this year. The Golden Knights are giving up just 13.5 points/game. I do expect them to allow a season-high tonight, but not enough where this game goes Over.

Only one of UCF’s four games so far would have eclipsed tonight’s total and that was the opener vs. FCS South Carolina State where the Knights hung 56 on the board themselves. We won’t see that kind of offensive effort from them here, trust me. Against their two toughest foes - Louisville and Georgia Tech - the offense has produced just three total offensive touchdowns. This is the highest O/U line for any UCF game this season. 

Similarly, only one of SMU’s previous four games would have made it past tonight’s O/U line. That was the last one, against TCU, and we all saw (against Oklahoma) how good the Horned Frogs offense is. Play the Under. 10*

Western Kentucky is 3-1 but it has not been a challenging schedule for the Hilltoppers. They’ve beaten FIU and Hawaii, who are probably the two worst FBS teams in the country, plus a FCS team in Austin Peay. Austin Peay may be the “best” win of the three, even though it was 73-0 last week against FIU. 

Yes, WKU probably should have beaten Indiana too, but instead lost that game in overtime. Because of that close call and the 73-0 win last week, I think we’ve got some nice value to go against the Hilltoppers this week.

Troy is 3-0 ATS as an underdog thus far, going against Ole Miss, Appalachian State and Marshall. After losing the way they did against App State (hail mary), it would have been easy for the Trojans to fold the following week against Marshall. But instead they took the game outright, 16-7, as a three-point dog.

The Trojans were by no means dominated by Ole Miss, only getting outgained by 87 yards. There may be a unique advantage for them in this matchup. Backup QB Jarret Doege transferred from WKU right before the start of the season. Doege should certainly be able to share some intel with his new teammates. 

Defensively, Troy has a clear edge here. They just held Marshall (who upset Notre Dame, remember) to not just 7 points, but 174 total yards. Indiana put up 484 yards on the WKU defense, which also benefited from 10 turnovers in the first two games. Troy’s offense has averaged 437 yards/game the L3 weeks. 10*

So there are several reasons to like Mississippi State in this game. Let’s go through them!

One is that the situation is really against Texas A&M, who just played a down to the wire game against Arkansas and has #2 Alabama on deck. Mississippi State played Bowling Green last week and won easily, 45-14. 

The Alabama game is huge for A&M as they beat the Crimson Tide last season and there has been a lot of chatter coming from both coaches, recruiting-related and otherwise, all offseason. 

Last year, Mississippi State also faced A&M in an “Arkansas-Alabama sandwich.” They upset the Aggies 26-22 in College Station as seven-point underdogs with QB Will Rogers (no, not me) completing 46 of 59 passes for 408 yards and three touchdowns. Rogers also did not throw an interception in that game. 

A&M has been outgained in three straight games with the offense never scoring more than 17 points. Remember last week they needed a defensive score (and a missed field goal) for the win. Even worse for the Aggies offense is that they have lost WR Smith to an injury. I just don’t see how they keep pace with a Mississippi State offense that has scored 39 or more points three times. The Bulldogs also led LSU on the road 13-0 before collapsing in the second half. They desperately will want to avoid an 0-2 start to SEC play. Lay the points at home. 9*

This is a Top 25 matchup but oddsmakers clearly believe #23 Florida State is better than #22 Wake Forest. So do I. 

From 2012-18, FSU defeated Wake seven straight times. But they’ve lost the last two head to head meetings, both in Winston-Salem, including 35-14 last year. There have been some “lean” years in Tallahassee - by Seminoles’ standards - but early returns in 2022 have been promising for coach Mike Norvell.

The ‘Noles are 4-0, which is their best start since 2015 . This is also the first game that they’ll play as a ranked team in four years. Both the offense and defense are in the top 35 nationally in scoring. QB Jordan Travis threw for a career-high 321 yards (with just 16 completions!) in last week’s 44-14 win over Boston College.

While FSU remains unbeaten, Wake Forest is off its first loss of the season. It was a wild one for the Demon Deacons, a 51-45 double overtime loss at home to #5 Clemson. Their defense obviously got torched. Coming off a loss like that, WF is “ripe for the picking.” 

Wake Forest has not won here in Tallahassee since 2008. Their defense is a major concern, not just because of the Clemson game last week. The week before, the Deacons allowed Liberty to 36 points and that honestly could have been a loss as they were outgained and needed Liberty to miss a 2-point try in the final 70 seconds. FSU should roll here. 10* 

Here’s an interesting game in Conference USA as last year’s conference champs (UTSA) are laying a small number to a team that just blew out Miami FL on the road last week, Middle Tennessee. 

Going back to last season, UTSA has seen eight straight games go Over the total. But I’m thinking differently here. The number has been bet up and is now higher than any of the Roadrunners’ previous three games vs. FBS foes this season. Note they had two games go to overtime, one of which (37-35 loss to Houston) would not have gone Over without the extra time.

Middle Tennessee just put up 500 yards of offense in Coral Gables and there was really nothing misleading about that 45-31 upset last week where they came in as 25.5-point underdogs. But remember this is the same Blue Raiders team that scored just 7 points in the season opener vs. James Madison with only 119 total yards.

The 408 passing yards we saw from MTSU quarterback Chase Cunningham last week seems like an anomaly. He had not thrown for more than 266 in any of the first three games, all of which were against lesser competition. And it’s not like the Blue Raiders ran the ball well in any of those games. They’ve averaged only 75 yards rushing in the three FBS games.

The UTSA offense will have to be fearful of a Middle Tennessee’s defense that has forced nine turnovers in the last three games. UTSA is long overdue for the Under to hit, especially with this being a higher number than all but one of those last eight games. 10*

Houston is one of just eight FBS teams to have played four games and have all of them go Over the total. But, if you were an Over bettor in any of those four games, you got a little lucky. The opener vs. UTSA went to triple overtime. The game at Texas Tech went to double overtime. They let Kansas start two eventual TD drives inside the 25-yard line. There was a late fumble return for a TD against Rice.

Now in the case of the last two games, the Over would have still hit even without the randomness. But certainly a case can be made that Houston games shouldn’t be this high-scoring. I think we’re likely to see the scoring come to an abrupt halt this week when the Cougars host Tulane, a team that has yet to allow more than 336 yards in a game all season. The Green Wave defense gives up just 11.8 points/game! 

Tulane has certainly had an interesting last two weeks. They upset Kansas State on the road but then fell at home to Southern Miss. Neither game was high-scoring with the Green Wave offense averaging just 20.5 points. 

They did allow an interception return for a TD last week, which was the difference in the game. So really, Tulane’s defense has only given up 40 points in four games.

There seems to be a lot wrong with Houston at the moment, particularly along the offensive line, and I don’t see that being fixed against this great Tulane defense which is fourth in the nation against the pass. Time for the Cougars to go Under. 9*

Utah State is sitting at 0-4 ATS and 4-0 to the Under after four games. Obviously, they will not fail to cover AND go Under in every game this season. Which of these streaks are more likely to end Thursday night against BYU? I think it’s the Under streak. BYU should score a ton tonight, but look for Utah State to get their “fair share” as well.

BYU is a big favorite here, for good reason. The #19 ranked Cougars did get blown out in Oregon two weeks ago, but also hold a Top 25 win against Baylor here in Provo. Last week marked the second time in four games that the offense gained over 500 total yards. QB Hall, looking very much like a NFL prospect, has topped 300 yards passing in two straight games and is completing 71.4% of his passes this season. 

The Utah State defense has given up an average of 41.3 points the last three games. While one of those came against Alabama, the other two opponents were Weber State and UNLV and both of those teams scored 34. I would not be surprised if BYU scored 40 in this game.

But Utah State should move the ball as well.  The Aggies had 421 yards last week against UNLV,  but shot themselves in the foot with six turnovers. That was after turning it over four times the previous week. QB Logan Bonner was good last year, setting program records with 3,628 yards and 36 touchdowns. So I’m a little perplexed as to why he’s struggled so much (especially with turnovers) these first four weeks. 

The BYU defense has given up 20 or more in every game this season. I’ve got USU eclipsing that number Thursday night. This number has come down, but I’m liking the value on the Over, which has hit each of the last four times BYU has been off an ATS loss (did not cover -21.5 vs. Wyoming last week). 10*

This is a massive letdown spot for #18 Washington, who beat Michigan State 39-28 last week to move into the polls. The Huskies were an unranked favorite over a Top 25 team in that game. They are one of just five schools to be 3-0 ATS and favored in every game.

Now they’re laying double digits to a conference rival.

Following a loss to USC, Stanford had last week off. Going back to last year, the Cardinal haven’t covered a spread in nine consecutive games, tying them with Colorado State for the longest streak in the nation. But a bye week coupled with the fact they played USC tougher than you might think, have me believing they will stay inside the number this week.

Stanford is 5-1 straight up vs. Washington when the Huskies are ranked in the Top 25. I know that QB Michael Penix Jr (transfer from Indiana) has been a difference-maker for UW, but this spread seems too high after a marquee win like the one the team had last week. I’m not THAT sold on the Huskies just yet.

As for Stanford, after a bye, they figure to go “all out” in this game as they look to avoid an 0-2 start in Pac 12 play. The spread is up to two touchdowns and I just do not see the favorite winning by that kind of margin. Washington is only 2-9 ATS its last 11 conference games and 3-7 ATS the last 10 times it has been off a straight up win. 10*

The current 40.5-point spread for this game, if it holds, would be the largest for any SEC game going back to 1996. I have no interest in playing the spread, but the total did jump out to me.

Vanderbilt is 4-0 to the Over this year, starting with a 63-10 win over Hawaii. From there, the Commodores have beaten Elon 42-31, lost to Wake Forest 45-25 and then bounced back last week with a 38-28 come from behind win over Northern Illinois.

The Commies are putting up 42.0 points/game. Tonight in Tuscaloosa, they won’t even put up half that number.

The Alabama defense that Vandy is running into Saturday has allowed just 26 points - total - in three games and 19 of that came from Texas, a game that was played in Austin. 

The last two times these teams met, Vandy was shut out both times. Granted, those games were played in 2011 and 2017, but it’s not like the talent discrepancy has gotten any closer. Look for the Crimson Tide to completely shut down the Vanderbilt offense and not hang 50+ themselves. Nick Saban and the coaching staff, no matter what they say publicly, care far more about next week’s game at Arkansas. 10*

Over the last two weeks, both of these teams have been involved in a game that went Over the total, but shouldn’t have.

Two weeks ago Houston faced Texas Tech. The game went to overtime tied 20-20. That was after Texas Tech kicked the game-tying FG with three seconds left. From there, both offenses got on track and it ended up being a 33-30 final (Houston lost), just clearing the O/U line of 62.5. 

Last week, Rice upset Louisiana 33-21 as an 11.5 point home underdog. The total closed at 52. If not for an early pick-six by Louisiana, that game would not have gone Over. Rice’s defense played shockingly well, holding the Ragin Cajuns to 175 total yards and just nine first downs. One of the other Louisiana touchdowns came about after a turnover that set them up inside the red zone.

The Owls offense had a lot of big plays in that game and I do not think they’ll be able to hit those with such great frequency this week. Also, Houston shouldn’t have given up 48 points last week to Kansas. Two of the Jayhawks’ touchdown drives began inside the UH 25-yard line.

Even though the Over is a combined 6-0 for these two squads in 2022, the market is expecting the opposite result this week. So am I. Even with the number coming down several points, Under is the play here. 10* 

Few are going to give Maryland any shot of pulling the upset Saturday in Ann Arbor, even though the Terrapins come in at 3-0. It has not been a good run against Michigan the last several years with the Terps both losing and failing to cover each of the last six meetings.

Maryland did have a nice win last week (at home) against SMU. So it’s not like they haven’t played anyone. The same cannot be said for Michigan who has faced three of the worst teams in the country, Colorado State, Hawaii and Connecticut. Give the Wolverines credit for winning those three games by a combined score of 166-17. But they were also favored to win the three games by 132 points. All three lines were -31 or higher with the last two averaging -50.5! 

I know that Maryland was a bit lucky to get the win last week over SMU. But I think they’ve got the goods to stay within 17 this week. QB Taulia Tagovailoa is completing 77 percent of his passes and has accounted for seven touchdowns. This will quite obviously be the best offense Michigan has faced thus far. 

So let’s see how Michigan does once they actually “get punched in the mouth.” My view is that the weak non-conference slate did wonders for “stat-padding.” However, the team is likely now overconfident as they hit the Big 10 slate. The Wolverines are just 3-7 ATS their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  10*

UTEP isn’t going to get a lot of love from bettors here, especially with the Miners coming in at 0-4 ATS. But the Boise State team that comes to El Paso Friday night just isn’t as strong as we’re used to seeing. In their only “real” test thus far, the Broncos got run off the field in an embarrassing first half showing at Oregon State, a game they’d go on to lose 34-17.

Now Boise has bounced back with a couple of wins, over New Mexico and Tenn Martin, but that doesn’t convince me they are worthy of laying double digits on the road. The Broncos are 0-2-1 ATS in 2022 and pushed two weeks ago with a similar spread at New Mexico. I realize that UTEP just lost to New Mexico - by 17 - last week. But they turned it over SEVEN times in that game, one of them an INT that was returned for a TD. 

The UTEP defense has not been bad the last two games, giving up 313 total yards to New Mexico State and just 299 to New Mexico. Yes, those are two bad teams, but Boise State’s offense just isn’t what it used to be. Broncos QB Hank Bachmeier has been inconsistent and was shaken up in last week’s game. On other side of the ball, two starters in the Boise secondary also got hurt last week. So there may be hope for a couple of big plays in the passing game from this UTEP offense after all.

Boise State’s offense seems content to play “slower” compared to years’ past, so I do not see them running away with this game. For the record, the Broncos are 2-10 ATS following a straight up win, 0-5 if that win was by more than 20 points. Also, they could be looking ahead to next week’s game at San Diego State

For UTEP, this game will be treated as “their Super Bowl.” It’s a rare national TV game (CBS Sports) on a Friday night against a fairly marquee opponent. I had success with an "ugly dog" last Friday (Wyoming), so grab those points again. 9*

It’s back to back Friday night games for Air Force, who lost outright last week, on the road to Wyoming by a score of 17-14. As I did note in my analysis for that game, the Falcons’ high-powered rushing attack had been stymied in the past by Wyoming. It was “deja vu all over again” as AF ran for just 171 yards on 40 attempts in Laramie where they are now 0-4 L4 visits.

This week’s opponent, Nevada, has also played AF “tough” in the past as well. While the Falcons have the 4-2 SU edge as Mt West rivals, the last five meetings have all been one-score games with four of those decided by three points or less. Last year’s game went to OT with Air Force winning 41-39.

I think that after the debacle against Wyoming last week, the Air Force offense gets back on track here. Let’s not forget that the Falcons scored 89 points in their first two games of the season or that they have gone for 40+ in five of those last six games against Nevada.

And while Nevada has been a tough opponent for AF in the past, the Wolf Pack aren’t very good this year. The defense is young and most of the players on the field don’t have much experience defending the triple option. This is a Nevada defense that gave up 55 points to Incarnate Word, a FCS school, two weeks ago. 

With a low total and me looking for AF to put a lot of points on the board, I’m looking for this game to go Over. Nevada being shut out last week at Iowa was a case of facing a great defense. In their previous two games, the Wolf Pack had scored 79 points. I’d much rather bet the Over than lay the points in this game. The O/U line has been bet down and I’m seeing value at the current number. 10*

Coastal Carolina is 3-0, but it’s a shaky 3-0 as they barely escaped both Gardner-Webb and Buffalo. Even though QB Grayson McCall is still here and the offense is averaging 35.7 points/game, it has been nowhere near as efficient as the last two seasons. The Chanticleers are operating at a pretty slow tempo and have just five passing plays that have gone for more than 30 yards.

Georgia State is 0-3, but this is probably the best team in America without a win. Lots of miscues have cost them games against South Carolina, North Carolina and Charlotte. In the first two, the Panthers were underdogs, so you can make the case they weren’t expected to win. But against Charlotte, they were favored by almost three touchdowns. 

In the loss to South Carolina, Georgia State had two special teams touchdowns go against them. Both were blocked punts. North Carolina is team that put up 60+ points against Appalachian State, so holding them to “just 35” isn’t all that bad for the Panthers’ defense. I don’t know what happened last week vs. Charlotte, other than it was a sandwich spot between two games against Power 5 opponents and this, the Sun Belt opener. But still, Georgia State should not have lost last week.

There was also a fumble return for a TD by Charlotte. So that’s three non-offensive TD’s allowed by Georgia State in three games. I’ll make the case then that the defensive numbers are not as bad as they look. 

Coastal Carolina is not running the ball as effectively as they have in years past. This is the first road game for the Chanticleers and I expect the offense to struggle. The Under is 5-0 their last five road games. Georgia State is 4-1 to the Under its last five home games. Play the Under. 10*

Utah is out for revenge Saturday night in Salt Lake City, facing a San Diego State team that defeated them, 33-31 as eight-point underdogs, last season. The Utes are much bigger favorites this time, but I think the Aztecs keep it close. 

The bloom is off the rose a bit for SDSU as they lost 38-20 at home to Arizona in the opener. But they came back to beat Idaho State 38-7 last week. A well-coached team like this, that can run the football effectively, should be able to control the clock and stay within the generous number.

Let’s not forget Utah lost to Florida. Florida is obviously much better than SDSU, but the Utes defense did allow 451 yards in that game. 

I think that the revenge angle has inflated this line. Utah is also just 2-11 ATS in the month of September, not to mention 1-4 ATS following a straight up win of more than 20 points and 2-7 ATS its last nine non-conference games. 

And this is a spot where San Diego State typically steps it up. They are 5-1 ATS their last six games vs. Top 25 teams. Going back to 2016, they sport a 13-5 record vs. the number when catching points. 10*

The Over is 2-0 for Houston football this season with an average of 67.5 points scored in the two games. But this is highly misleading. There have been five overtimes in the two games, a 37-35 win at UTSA and a 33-30 loss at Texas Tech.

This week the Cougars open the home schedule against a Kansas team that is off a couple of strong offensive showings. Can’t remember the last time the Jayhawks have posted back to back 50+ point efforts, but that’s the situation here. Again though, it’s a little misleading. 

It was a very rare two touchdowns in OT from Kansas last week. After they scored to take the 49-42 lead, they returned an INT for a TD to make it 55. That was after WVU forced OT with a TD in the final minute of regulation.

The Houston-Texas Tech game probably shouldn’t have gone to OT either. The Cougars returned an INT for a TD in the fourth quarter, then each team made a FG in the final minute of regulation.

With both teams coming off games that ended up “misleadingly” high-scoring, I’ll back the Under here. Even with five overtimes, the Houston offense is only averaging 350 yards per game. The Kansas offense certainly won’t continue putting up the kinds of numbers we’ve seen in the first two games. 10*

The second Scott Frost was fired, bettors started piling on Nebraska, who is a home dog for this Noon ET matchup against #6 Oklahoma. I agree with the line move and will be taking the points.

Nebraska may be 0-3 ATS, 1-2 SU, but Frost is gone and the Cornhuskers have actually been pretty good as an underdog in recent years (12-8-1 ATS). Last year, they easily covered as 22-point dogs in Norman, losing by just seven points to OU.

The Sooners did win 33-3 last week, but that’s a little misleading when you consider they were down 3-0 to Kent State with under a minute to go in the first half. Just because they were able to pile it on in the second half there doesn’t mean they can do the same here.

Interim coach Mickey Joseph should have the Blackshirts fired up and ready to go Saturday morning. I just can’t see the home team being blown out here and remember no team has lost more close games the last few seasons than Nebraska has. All we are asking for here is for them to keep it close.

The offense seems just fine in Lincoln, averaging 36 points/game. Oklahoma has yet to face a good offense this year. I also wouldn’t be so certain that the Sooners can make it three straight games without a turnover. Grab the points. 9*

Air Force is probably the best team in the Mountain West right now. Going back to last season, the Falcons own the nation’s third longest active win streak at six in a row. They have also covered the spread in all six of those games. But Wyoming has always been a tough opponent and I’m liking the points in this Friday night matchup.

First off, Air Force hasn’t won here in Laramie since 2012. They’ve lost three times here since that last win and conference openers also seem to be a problem for the Falcons. They’re just 2-9 SU in MWC openers the last 11 seasons. They’ve also lost their first road game of the season each of the last three years.

Nobody runs the ball better than Air Force, but the past shows that the Wyoming defense has been fairly adept at slowing down the triple option. The last two years, Air Force has averaged just 186.5 rush yards vs. Wyoming. That still sounds like a lot, however, not when compared to what the Falcons usually rush for.

Wyoming is also 2-0, by the way. I know that an OT win over Tulsa and beating FCS Northern Colorado isn’t going to really impress anybody. But the fact they put up an average of 36.5 points in those two wins is encouraging. The Cowboys should have scored more than 33 last week, but settled for four field goals. 

The last 14 encounters between these Mt West rivals have seen an average of just over 42 points/game scored. That’s not very many. So, in what historically has been a low-scoring game, grabbing the points seems like the better option, especially with AF’s past struggles here in Laramie. 10* 

Even though Illinois is at home, coming off a loss to Indiana, they probably should not be favored here. 

Now the Fighting Illini’s season did get off to a great start as they blew out Wyoming 38-6 here in Champaign. But the last second loss to Indiana last week took the wind out of their sales pretty quick. It’s a game the Illini probably should have won, but four turnovers cost them dearly.

Virginia has the best offense that Brett Bielema’s team has seen yet. The Cavaliers are led by Brennan Armstrong, a dual threat QB that can beat you with his arm or his legs. Illinois’ defense will have all sorts of problems trying to contain Armstrong, who has his top three receivers back from last year.

It wasn’t the most impressive final score as Virginia beat Richmond last week 34-17. But the offense had over 500 yards and scored 28 points by halftime. They simply took their foot off the gas in the second half, probably not wanting to show Illinois much. 

These teams met last year and Virginia won 42-14 with Armstrong throwing for 400 yards. The line was -10.5 (in favor of Virginia) for that game. I just don’t see how it could be so different here. 10*

We’ve got a Top 25 matchup in Pittsburgh Saturday afternoon with the 17th ranked Panthers hosting #24 Tennessee. Despite Pitt being at home and the higher ranked team, they are the underdog here. The bloom really came off their rose with less than stellar showing against West Virginia in the opener. It was a 31-24 win, but the Panthers needed a late pick-six and did not cover the spread.

Tennessee did cover the spread in its first game, easily defeating Ball State by a score of 59-10. The Volunteers had 38 points by halftime and 52 by the end of the third quarter. Eight different receivers caught a pass in the first half. With last year’s top rusher Jabari Smith back and four returning offensive linemen, the Vols will be able to run the ball effectively here as well.

Cause for concern if you’re a Pitt fan - not only did Tennessee average more than five yards/carry last season and West Virginia just went for 5.6 yards/carry. 

No team in America played “faster” than Tennessee did last year. Under Josh Heupel, they averaged 3.12 plays per minute! This is what I like to see when betting the Over.

No one thinks Kedon Slovis is going to be able to “replace” Kenny Pickett at Pitt, but the USC transfer threw for 300 yards against WVU. Over the course of the game, the Panthers’ offense started playing faster as well.  This game should be a shootout! 9*