10* UNDER 49ers/Chiefs (TOM)

Two great offenses. Two great defenses. Honestly, it would not be difficult for us to write a convincing argument for this to be a high-scoring game, but for a number of different reasons we are expecting Super Bowl 58 to be a very defensive affair. San Francisco averages 28.9 PPG, which ranks third, while allowing 17.5, which ranks third as well. Kansas City only averages 21.8 PPG though, which is 15th overall. The big news for the Chiefs in the postseason and throughout the regular season as well though has been their tough defensive play, as they enter the big game conceding 17.3, ranked second in the league. Despite having Patrick Mahomes under center, the last thing that KC wants to do here is to turn this into a "track meet" with the hungry 49ers. Instead they'll look to suffocate this offense and control the clock. Mahomes won't feel nearly as much pressure as his counterpart and should expertly be able to "control" the pace of this one. In our opinion Super Bowl 58 will be decided in the trenches and by field position and in a contest like that, the "under" becomes the savvy call as far as the total is concerned!

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10* 49ers (BLOCKBUSTER)

It's been an unreal year for the Lions this season. We think that for the most part they've overachieved now to this point. But for the 49ers, they were fully expected to be here before the season started. As great as Jared Goff and Detroit has been at times this year, this is just a bad matchup for the Lions. This San Francisco defense is tailor-made for this type of offense. And the Lions have struggled to contain strong run games this year, which also plays directly into the home side's hands. We're not only expecting San Francisco to win this game, we're looking for it to do so in blowout fashion; lay the points, the play is indeed on San Francisco!

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10* Chiefs/Ravens UNDER (BLOCKBUSTER)

Although this game definitely features two of the best QB's on Earth right now, we're expecting this contest to be won in the trenches and by field position. Whichever team establishes the run and looks after the football is going to come out on top. Each offense will be doing its best to limit the time the other unit is on the field, and that means establishing the run game throughout. The Chiefs beat the Fish 26-7 in the Wildcard at home, before holding on for the 27-24 win at Buffalo last weekend. We're anticipating more of a defensive lower-scoring battle like the Chiefs participated in the Wildcard. Baltimore held the Texans to just ten points, and the Chiefs' sub-par offense could be in trouble on the road here as well. In our opinion, this number is indeed high, so the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Chiefs/Bills (BLOOD-BATH)

These teams played in Kansas City back on December 10th and the Bills won a tight and lower-scoring battle by a score of 20-17. Will the Chiefs get their revenge here, or will the Bills take advantage of home field and pull out another win and cover? We're not 100% sure WHO will win and cover in this game, but we're for sure absolutely expecting another lower-scoring battle. Note that KC has seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite. We're expecting this one to be decided in the trenches and by field position and in a contest like that, the "under" is almost always the correct call as far as the total is concerned, and that's the case here in this divisional round matchup; in our estimation, this number is a little high, so the play is the "under!" 

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10* Lions (DIV. RND GOY)

At this point of the season, the oddsmakers lines are sharper than ever. There's only a few games left and their entire attention can be put onto these lines. It gets tougher and tougher to find any true value at this point, but in our opinion the home field advantage simply can't be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in the outcome of this contest. Both starting QB's got huge monkeys off their backs, but we just don't trust this Bucs offense on the road. The Lions are sitting pretty and poised to move on to the Conference Championship game and we're FULLY expecting the home side to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion; lay the points, the play is Detroit!

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10* 49ers (BLOCKBUSTER)

Green Bay managed the huge upset win at Dallas, but we're fully expecting Jordan Love and the visitors to predictably stumble here. Love's numbers in all indoor games are just crazy, but he's very average whenever he plays outdoors. Love destroyed the Cowboys great defense, but now they face another really difficult test here on the road. Green Bay's defense was poor and its going to have its hands full here vs. this well-rested and explosive home side; lay the points, the play is San Francisco!

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10* OVER Texans/Ravens (DIV. RND TOY)

With nearly 65% of the early public money on the Texans, most everyone here feels that CJ Stroud and company can keep the offensive momentum rolling here vs. this difficult Ravens defense. And why not though, as the Browns had the No. 1 defense in the league and were just torched for 45 points. And for Baltimore, it has had the advantage of having a week off to heal up. We're expecting LaMar Jackson to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. We base our picks on many different things, this particular one sets up really from a "situational" stand point in our opinion. Everything does indeed point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later in our opinion!

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10* OVER Eagles/Bucs (BLOCKBUSTER)

Both teams struggled down the stretch of the regular season after great starts. Regardless, here we are and in our opinion, everything points to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later. This playoffs has so far been anything but predictable. The Browns had the best defense in the league and they just gave up 45 points to the Texans, while the Dolphins leds the league in total offense, and only managed 7 points vs. a sub-par Chiefs' defense. And we absolutely believe that the oddsmakers are wrong in this case as well. Philadelphia held Tampa to just 11 points in a low-scoring win here earlier in the year, but note that Tampa has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in five of its last six in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. This number is a little low, the play is the "over!"

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10* Rams (WC GOY)

There are a lot of story lines going on in this Wildcard game, but the bottom line is that we feel that this one will be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, and in a case like that, we're grabbing the points. That said, Matt Stafford is in his old stomping grounds here and we like the Super Bowl winning QB to put on a show here. The Lions have been questionable on the defensive end since November, giving up 38, 26, 28, 29 and 28 points over their final five games. The only loss LA has had since Week 11 was an OT road affair to the #1 seed in the AFC. The Rams are 3-1 the L4 in this series and in our opinion their offense and defense are in fact superior here; grab the points, the play is LA!

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10* Dolphins (BLOCKBUSTER)

These teams are familiar with each other and in a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points. These teams met in Germany this season and KC won by a score of 21-14. Note that Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponnet. With the expected return of key players Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert, we do in fact think that the Fish have a legitimate shot at winning this one outright. The Dolphins have had their fair share of adversity this season, but so to has Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. With the cold temperatures playing a role in the outcome of this game and eliminating the crowd a lot in this one, we feel that the Chiefs' advantage diminishes in that department for sure. There's something "off" this year with Mahomes and the Chiefs. They looked REALLY bad at times this year. The Dolphins stumbled, but have all the pieces in place to pull off the outright; that said, let's grab the points with Miami!

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10* Browns/Texans UNDER (WILDCARD RND TOY)

They say defense wins championships, and in our estimation the team that plays the best on that side of the field and wins the war in the trenches and the field position battle will be the one that comes out on top. These teams will look to establish the run throughout as to limit the mistakes their QB's can make in this pressure packed situation. The Texans won the AFC South at 10-7, while Cleveland was second in the AFC North. This is the second meeting between the teams in the last three weeks, with the Browns getting the better of the Texans by a score of 36-22 on Christmas Eve. Note though that Houston has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponent. CJ Stroud didn't play in that game and while he'll be back in this one, as stated off the top, we're absolutely expecting each side to try and use the run game to set up the pass. These teams didn't get here because of their explosive offenses and unbelievable QB's. They got here because of their great defensive play. And that's what we're expecting, a lower-scoring defensive battle; the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* Dolphins (AFC EAST GOM)

Miami hammered the Jets 30-0 and then beat Dallas at home 22-20 on X-Mas Eve, but it fell flat last week in Baltimore, getting run over by a score of 56-19. The Dolphins not only look to atone for that setback, but they also play with the added incentive of revenge here after falling 48-20 at Buffalo on October 1st (and note that the Fish are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss vs. an opponent.) The Bills have won four straight, but we now finally predict that they'll come up short here in this difficult road venue. Miami is the more motivated team here on several different accounts and we expect it to hold on to the top spot in the AFC East; grab the points, the play is Miami!

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10* Texans (AFC GOW)

Houston is 9-7 straight up and third in the AFC South, while Indianapolis is 9-7 as well and second in the AFC South after holding the tie-breaker with Houston when the Colts won 31-20 on the road at the start of the season back on September 17th. The winner gets into the playoffs and the loser goes home empty handed. This one is for ALL THE MARBLES! So where does the value lie here? The oddsmakers are at least trying their best to lead us to believe that these teams are evenly matched with a spread like this, and obviously, they really are. Their offensive and defensive numbers are similar and their win/loss records are identical. But all that said, we think this one sets up well for the Texans to exact a little revenge, as note that they're 3-1 against the spread in their last four in trying to avenge a straight up and against the spread divisional home loss vs. an opponent. The Texans have also won each of their last seven road games against AFC South opponents and they have covered the spread in each of their last seven games as road underdogs against AFC South opponents as well. The Colts on the other hand have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games at Lucas Oil Stadium following a home win. We're going with Houston to get the job done at the end of the night!

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10* Vikings (ASSASSIN)

We think that home field advantage at this time of year will be the difference-maker for the Vikes today. Both teams are 7-8. Minnesota comes in as the "hungrier" team though after back-to-back competitive losses at the Bengals and to the Lions last week, who clinched the division on their home field. Clearly, they won't be happy about that at all. They beat Green Bay on the road 24-10 at the start of the year, and we're predicting a similar final score here as well. The Packers broke a two-game slide to save their season with a come from behind 33-30 win at lowly Carolina last weekend, but everything points to a predictable letdown here now in Minnesota. Both teams are dealing with plenty of injuries, but we like the Vikes to finally settle down here at home and get handle on their recent turnover issue; lay the short points, the play is Minnesota!

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10* Chiefs (AFC GOW)

Clearly, this is a big game for both teams, but a lot more so for Kansas City, which has lost five of its last eight, including a 20-14 setback here last weekend to the Raiders as 11-point favorites. Note though that the Chiefs are a near-perfect 7-1 ATS in their last eight after a SU/ATS home loss as a double-digit favorite. They barely squeaked by the Bengals 23-20 in last year's Playoffs, covering the 2-point spread, but now they face a Cincinnati team without Joe Burrow and off a poor 34-11 loss at Pittsburgh as a three-point favorite. Look for Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid to come out with a game-plan here to get back on track vs. this toothless Bengals' team; lay the points with confidence, the play is Kansas City!

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10* Lions (BLOOD-BATH)

Despite just clinching the NFC North, we're not expecting the Lions to take anything for granted here and taking into account the current form of the Cowboys, we feel that the visitors do in fact have a legitimate shot at winning this one outright. The Cowboys are 7-0 at home, but it's been against really weak competition, or teams dealing with major issues at the time. It's a "Fugazi" that home record. The time to play your best football of the year is right now and of course the Cowboys are regressing right on cue after back-to-back losses to Buffalo and Miami. The Lions are off back-to-back wins, including a 30-24 victory at Minnesota last weekend and they have even bigger plans for the rest of the regular season; as stated off the top, we feel an outright victory is a very real possibility, but in the end we'll recommend to grab as many points as you can, the play is Detroit!

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10* UNDER Jets/Browns (TOW)

This is an important game for both teams. To us, this is a great "situational" play on the "under." New York is 6-9 and hasn't thrown in the towel yet after a 30-28 win over Washington on X-Mas Eve. The 30 points scored is an outlier for sure though, as NY combined for just 14 points over its previous three games. Now on the road in this difficult venue, we can expect a return to form on the offensive end here, which is obviously really terrible. Cleveland is 10-5 and getting unreal play from veteran Joe Flacco, but after three straight SU/ATS victories in a row, soring 87 points in the process, we feel that the "short week" will benefit these defenses a lot more. This number is high, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* OVER Ravens/49ers (NON-CONF TOW)

Is this a possible Super Bowl preview here in Prime Time on X-Mas day?! Very possibly! Who knows for sure, but each side enters at 11-3. Each has dealt with injury issues this year and some off-field adversity. The Ravens are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS on the road, while the 49ers are 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS at home. These teams are very evenly matched for the most part, and we feel this line is very sharp. We're going to steer clear of choosing a side, and instead focus on the total. The 49ers just annihilated the Cardinals 45-29 and there's no reason not to think they can't carry over that offensive momentum here. The Ravens have won four straight, which included a 37-31 OT win over NFC West LA Rams just two weeks ago, and we're expecting a similar wide-open offensive battle here on the West Coast on X-Mas day as well; this number is a little low in our opinion, the play is indeed on the "over!"

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10* Eagles (NFC EAST GOW)

We base our picks on many different things, but this particular one is based on some very strong ATS trends that support our overall theory that Philadelphia is going to have no mercy on its overmatched opponent today. Philadelphia is 10-4, but it's lost three straight, both SU and ATS. That however is significant for us to take note of here, as the Eagles are a near-perfect 5-1 ATS in their last six after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. This is the first meeting of the year between the division foes. Philly then has a home game here next week vs. the Cards, followed by the regular season finale at the Giants. Clearly, there's no reason Philly can't now end the season on a three-game win streak, and that's what we're expecting, starting with a convincing blowout here at home; lay the points, the play is Philadelphia!

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10* Patriots (AFC NON-DIV GOM)

We're expecting a much tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting, as we look for New England to try and do everything it can to play "spoiler" here. The Pats are 3-11 and the Broncos are 7-7. The Pats beat the Steelers, then promptly lost 27-17 to a desperate Chiefs team last week. QB Bailey Zapp was 23 of 31 for 180 yards and a TD and we feel he can be effective here today as well. New England still concedes only 21.4 PPG. The Broncos are off a 42-17 loss to the Lions and have struggled with consistency from game-to-game all season long. Russell Wilson is the better QB here for sure in this matchup, but we think that Bill Belichick and his defense will be "hanging around late;" grab the points, the play is indeed on New England!

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10* Titans (ASSASSIN)

We're not expecting Tennessee to just roll over here and in a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points. Seattle is 7-7 and third in the NFC West, while Tennessee is 5-9, and looking to play spoiler and salvage pride after having already been eliminated. The Hawks are 20th in total offense and 28th in total defense. Seattle is really banged up coming into this game as well, including to QB Geno Smith. The Titans average 293.7 YPG, while allowing 339.3. Injuries have also been a concern for the Titans all year. Obviously its "next man up" for both teams. But Tennessee and its coaches are playing for their jobs and everything points to this one "coming down to the wire." As such, we're grabbing the points; the play is on Tennessee!

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10* Pittsburgh (AFC NORTH GOY)

They say that divisional contests are always the most important and that they almost always mean the most to the home side, and that's definitely the case here in our opinion, and while we clearly wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend to grab as many points as you can with the Steelers. The Bengals are 8-6 and the Steelers are 7-7. The Bengals have won three straight with Jake Browning, but note that Cincinnati is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten in after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row. Pittsburgh turns to Mason Rudolph to snap the three-game slide. With nearly 75% of the public money on the visitors, we're going the other way here and expecting Rudolph to step up and deliver the goods in this spot; grab the points, the play is indeed on the Steelers!

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10* Saints (ASSASSIN)

With nearly 80% of the public money on the Rams, we're going full on contrarian here and going the other way. This is an important game for both 7-7 teams. The Saints have won two straight, while LA has won four of its last five. New Orleans is now tied for the lead in the NFC South. The bottom line here is the Saints' defense is legit, allowing just 248 total yards per game over their last two games and 19.1 PPG overall this season. They have 30 INT's and 30 sacks already, which is fifth in each category. The offense hasn't been shabby either, Derek Carr averaging 26 PPG over their last two, and 22.1 overall. The Rams have allowed just 21.2 PPG over thier last five games. Overall LA averages 23.4 PPG this season. Both teams enter with momentum. Last year the Saints won this game by a score of 27-20 at home. While we feel an outright is possible, our official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is New Orleans!

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10* Seahawks (ATS BLOOD-BATH)

This is a big game for each team, but more so for the home side we'll argue. While we clearly feel the outright win is a very real possibility, our official call will be to grab as many points as you can. The Eagles are 10-3 and the Seahawks are 6-7. Philly is 5-2 away from friendly confines, but we think the Eagles are ripe for the picking after B2B losses, including a humbling 33-13 setback at division rival Dallas last weekend. With nearly 70% of the early public money on the visitors as well, we're natually going to gravitate towards the underdog anyways. But this is it for the Hawks essentially, almost in a "do or die" situation here. As stated off the top, a great situational play here on the desperate home side; grab the points the play is indeed on Seattle!

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10* UNDER Ravens/Jags (SUPER TOTAL)

This total opened at 44, and it's since dropped. But it's not dropped nearly enough in our estimation, as we're expecting a very lower-scoring defensive "war of attrition." Baltimore if 10-3, including 4-1 on the road, while Jacksonville is 8-5, including 2-4 at home. Baltimore has won three straight, while Jacksonville has lost two straight. But after last week's 37-31 OT win over the Rams, we're expecting a more conservative game-plan from the Ravens here on the road. Overall the Ravens average 27.8 PPG, while allowing 16.8. The Jags have a QB issue right now with Trevor Lawrence injured. Backup Joe Flacco looked decent last week, but as we say, the QB situation isn't the greatest right now for the home side. Jacksonville averages 24 PPG, while allowing 22.3. With both teams coming off high-scoring affairs, in our opinion everything points to a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring battle this time around, where field position and taking care of the football will become the deciding factors on who comes out on top; this number is a little high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* Cardinals (NFC WEST GOY)

Are we suggesting an outright victory?! Of course not! But in a contest that we see a lot more competitive than what this spread is suggesting, we're going to recommend to grab the points. San Francisco is 10-3, including 5-2 on the road, but with a home date vs. the Ravens on X-Mas Day, there's no question that this sets up as a "look-ahead" spot. But how could it also not be a "letdown" spot after five straight SU wins? That includes an important win over Seattle last week. Can anyone say "Trap game?!" Arizona snapped a two-game slide with a spirited 24-10 road win at Pittsburgh last weekend and there's no reason not to think that the team won't bring that same "spoiler mentality" to this one as well. Outright win?! As we stated off the top, we're not calling for that, but the overall situation, numbers and trends are all pointing to this one being a "nail-biter;" grab the points, the play is Arizona.

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10* Lions (NON-CONF GOW)

Denver is 7-6 now, including 3-3 on the road, while Detroit is 9-4 overall, including 4-2 at home. The Broncos got back on track last week with a 24-7 win over the Chargers, but that was without Justin Herbert in the line-up. Detroit comes in as the hungrier team here after dropping two of its last three, including a listless 28-13 setback at Chicago as a three-point favorite last weekend (note though that the Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after a SU/ATS road loss as favorites.) With two of their next three to close out the year on the road, this puts added emphasis onto this game for Detroit as well. The overall situation, and also the trends all points to Detroit as the correct call here on Saturday night!

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10* Chargers/Raiders OVER (AFC TOW)

LA is 5-8 and it's lost its starting QB for the remainder of the year. Last week the Chargers fell 24-7 at home to Denver. Las Vegas is 5-8 and it's coming off a 3-0 home loss to Minnesota last Sunday. LA has lost four of its last five and it's averaged just 7.7 PPG over its last three. Overall though the Chargers average 21.7 PPG. The problem is, the defense is also conceding 21.7 PPG as well. Look for Easton Stick to be given the green light here and to improve upon his numbers from last week vs. Denver, where he finished 13 of 24 for 179 yards. The Raiders are only averaging 15.5 PPG, while allowing 19.9. Last week QB Aidan O'Connel went 21 of 32 for 171 yards. So far he's average 195 yards passing as a starter and has a 4:7 TD:INT. The Raiders though have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten though off a SU/ATS shutout home loss. Yes, these teams are messes, but the overall situation finally points to more of a wide-open offensive affair; this number is indeed a little low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* UNDER Eagles/Cowboys (NFC EAST TOY)

These two teams are steaming towards the finish line. Philadelphia is 10-2, including 5-1 on the road, while Dallas is 9-3, including 6-0 at home. Dallas has seen the total go "over" in five of its last six after last week's 41-35 victory over Seattle. The Cowboys play with revenge as well after a 28-23 loss at Philadelphia back in November, and note that Dallas has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss vs. an opponent. Philadephia's five-game win streak was snapped in last week's listless 42-19 loss at San Francisco, so we just feel that Philly will be extra cautious and we expect it to double down on the defensive end in this difficult road venue. Look for the rematch to be decided by field position and ultimately expect this total to stay well "under" the number once it's all said and done!

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10* Bills (UNDERDOG OF MONTH)

While clearly the outright win is a very real possibility, in the end our official call will be to grab as many points as you can. Buffalo is 6-6 and KC is 8-4. The Bills are off the 37-34 OT loss at Philadelphia, but had the last week off to regroup and prepare for this one. It was a back-and-forth start for the Bills, but the bye week came at a great time. KC has been playing terribly in losing two of its last three, including a 27-17 setback at Green Bay as a six-point favorite last week. No one is fearing this Chiefs' offense right now, and now the defense also looks shaky. As stated off the top, we firmly believe the outright upset is a possibility, but in the end we'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with Buffalo!

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10* OVER Broncos/Chargers (AFC WEST TOM)

Denver is 6-6 now after falling 22-17 at Houston last weekend. Previous to that Denver had won six straight. The Broncos now face divisional opponent LA, which snapped a three game slide with a 6-0 win at new England last time out. That however is very significant to note here as the Chargers have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after a SU/ATS road win in which they shutout their opponent. It's a super important divisional game and we're fully expecting this sense of intense competition to translate into offensive production on the field of play; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* Jets (ASSASSIN)

Houston appears to be the "flavor of the week" right now and we think it's now getting a little TOO much repsect here from the oddsmakers on the road. The Jets have lost five straight SU/ATS, but that's significant for us to take note of here, as NY has in fact gone 7-3 ATS in its last ten after five or more SU/ATS losses in a row. Houston has won four of its last five, including a 22-17 victory at home over Denver. The Texans are just 2-3 SU on the road though. With a game at division rival Tennessee the following week, the possibility of getting caught "looking ahead" is also there for the visiting side; we love how this one sets up for New York!

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10* Steelers (AFC GOW)

New England is 2-10, while Pittsburgh is 7-5. Pittsburgh has been trading wins/losses over its last four games and off the listless 24-10 loss at home to Arizona, we're expecting this pattern to continue. New England is just in shambles and the issues are greater than just the players on the field or the "X's" and "O's." With the loss of RB Rhamondre Stevenson, the Pats offense is a complete bust. Over their last three games the Pats have scored a combined 13 points, getting shutout twice already this season. Mitch Trubisky is the best player on the field of play in this one, so just take that into consideration. Either way, Pittsburgh's defense, which concedes 19.1 PPG, will be able to deliver the victory here in our opinion; so lay the points with confidence, the play is indeed on Pittsburgh!

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10* Bengals (ASSASSIN)

The Bengals are 5-7 and they come to town with Jake Browning under center. Are we calling for an outright upset?! No, we're not. But we do think the Bengals won't smiply "roll over" here. Instead, we're expecting this team to give its best shot over four quarters and to give the home side everything it can handle. Jacksonville is back on track at 8-3 and B2B victories, but note that Trevor Lawrence and company are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine after three or more ATS victories in a row. We're not counting out the Bengals quite yet. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points, the play is indeed on Cincinnati!

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10* Packers (NON-CONF GOM)

The Chiefs are 8-3, including 4-1 on the road. Green Bay is 5-6, including 3-2 at home. We think that the Chiefs will have their hands full and while we'll stop short in calling for an outright upset, in a contest that we see coming down to the wire, we're grabbing the points. The Chiefs offense is going in reverse, as they've averaged just 19.5 PPG over their last five games. The Chiefs have been held together by their tough defense which concedes just 16.5 PPG. Green Bay though has looked great of late, winning three of its last four, behind some great offensive play from QB Jordan Love. The defense has been sharp too, allowing just 20.4 PPG this year. With a home game vs. the Bills up next, look for the visitors to get caught "looking ahead" here as well; grab the points, the play is Green Bay!

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10* Saints (ASSASSIN)

New Orleans isn't out of the fight yet. The Saints though have lost two straight SU and three straight ATS after last week's 24-15 divisional loss to the Falcons. Detroit was last seen losing 29-22 to Green Bay on Thanksgiving. We'll point out though that the Saints have responded well in this spot for bettors, going a near-perfect 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more ATS losses in a row. In the loss to the Falcons, the Saints actually outgained Atlanta. Derek Carr was 24 for 38 for 304 passing yards. Despite some injuries, we're looking for the hungry home side to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably cover; so grab the points, the play is New Orleans!

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10* UNDER Hawks/Cowboys (TOW)

Dallas is 8-3 and it's won three in a row, scoring 127 points in that span. Clearly, if Seattle is going to have any chance in this game, then it's going to have to control the ball while on offense so as to limit the amount of time that Dak Prescott and company are on the field of play. We just think that on the short week, we're going to see a more conservative game plan from Dallas as well here as it looks to dictate the tempo. Dallas gets caught looking ahead here as well to its game vs. division rival Philly here the following week, while the visiting side does the same with a rematch vs. the 49ers. Normally high-scoring teams, expect this Thursday night matchup to go the other way; this number is a bit high in our estimation, so the play is the "under!" 

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10* Bears (NFC NORTH GOY)

The Bears play with revenge here after falling 19-13 at home back in Week 6. They were a 3-point dog in that one, and they're a 3-point dog here. But now they catch the Vikes at the exact correct time in our estimation. Note that the Bears are in fact 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a dog vs. an opponent as well. The Bears lost 31-26 at Detroit last weekend, but covered with the 7.5-point spread. Minnesota is coming off a close-but-no-cigar 21-20 loss at Denver and we think it's ripe for an upset here; that said, let's grab the points, the play is Chicago!

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10* Chargers (ASSASSIN)

Baltimore is 8-3, but we think it'll have its hands full here with this now desperate 4-6 LA side. The Ravens are off the 34-20 win over the Bengals, but with their bye week next week, all signs point to this team getting caught "looking ahead" in our opinion, as that's then followed by a fairly easy home game vs. the hapless Rams. the Chargers are for sure desperate here after two straight losses, but we think they catch the Ravens at a great time here, a late night West Coast game on the national stage and while we do absolutely believe the outright victory is a possibility, the official call is to grab as many points as you can; the play is indeed on LA!

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10* OVER Bucs/Colts (NON-CONF TOW)

Both teams have been involved in lower-scoring games of late, but we're finally expecting a bit of a shootout here between these non-conference opponents on Sunday afternoon. Tampa has lost five of its last six. This is a big game obviously. It's off the 27-14 road loss at San Francisco. The Colts have won two in a row, including a 10-6 victory over New Enland two weeks ago (note thought that the Colts have seen the total go "over" the number in three of their last four coming off their bye week.) Both teams are still in the mix for a Wildcard, but each needs to start stringing some wins together. With each pushing the pace like we anticipate and opening things up on the offensive end, look for this total to indeed eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch; the play is the "over!" 

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10* Texans (UNDERDOG OF WEEK)

Jacksonville is 7-3 SU/ATS, including 3-0 SU/ATS on the road. Houston is 6-4 SU, including 4-1 SU at home. It's 2-3 ATS in front of the home town crowd, but while we'll still be grabbing the points, we're expecting the home side to in fact find a way to win this one outright. Jacksonville bounced back with a 34-14 win over Tennessee at home last week after falling 34-3 at home to the 49ers. While only 1-2 ATS in its last three, Houston though is 3-0 SU. That includes an impressive win on the road at the Bengals as a dog. It's Houston which is still flying under the radar here, as we expect the Jags to finally take a step back on the road this season; grab the points, the play is Houston!

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10* Seahawks.

Seattle has been trading wins and losses over its last four games. It fell 17-16 at the Rams last week. It's the first game of the year vs. the 49ers, who have gotten back on track with B2B wins and once look pretty dominant. With a game at Philadelphia after this, followed by a home re-match vs. the Hawks, we say that San Fran gets caught "looking ahead." Seattle is 4-1 SU at home. San Fran is just 2-3 ATS on the road. We're not calling for an outright upset, but all signs point to this one being much more competitive than what this spread would suggest; grab the points, the play is San Francisco!

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10* Commanders.

As mentioned in the play on Green Bay, we're going "contrarian" here on Thanksgiving, taking all three dogs. Washington is 4-7 and it's lost two straight after an upset 31-19 setback to the Giants. Previous to that they fell short in a competitive 29-26 loss at Seattle as a six-point dog. We like the Commanders to bounce back here with their effort though after they got caught looking ahead to this one. These teams play in the Nation's capital in the final regular season game and we like the visitors to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Dallas has always had a way of playing down to the level of its competition in big moments, and we say that pattern of futility continues here on the short week. No outright, but way closer than expected; grab the points, the play is Washington!

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10* Packers.

We're going contrarian here. While the majority of the public goes one way on this early game on Thanksgiving, we're going the other. In fact, that's the theme of this three-game report, a Thanksgiving Contraian 3-Pak! Cleary, Detroit is the better team. After three straight wins, it's now in lines for its fourth. It beat Green Bay 34-20 back in September, but we're expecting a much better fight from their division rival here on the National Stage. Detroit was "lucky" to move past Chicago 31-26 last weekend. It plays its next two on the road, so it could be caught "looking ahead" here as well. Green Bay plays with revenge and it comes in off a huge 23-20 home win over the Chargers as three-point dogs. Everything points to a much tigher battle than what this line is suggesting in our opinion; grab the points, the play is indeed on Green Bay!

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10* Eagles (BLOOD-BATH)

The Eagles play with revenge after losing to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl last year. In a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points. If you're betting on this game, then you know the cast of characters on each side and you're also very familiar with each team's strengths and weaknesses. Despite the Chiefs being the defending champs though, Philadelphia "feels" like the more complete team to us at this point of the season. Honestly, it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these sides to take this one. We think the revenge factor will prove to be the difference-maker; grab the points, the play is Philadelphia!

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10* OVER Jets/Bills (AFC EAST TOY)

It's a big game for each side, and while both have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, including in their first meeting of the year back in Week 1 when the Jets upset the Bills at home by a score of 22-16 in OT. The Jets are 4-5 and the Bills are 5-5 and there are plenty of implications on the line for each team. Note though that the Bills have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Bills have lost two in a row after last week's 24-22 setback to the Broncos, and they've seen the total go "under" in three straight, but note that Buffalo has also seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. We're expecting a battle here, but one that flies OVER the number as the game comes down the stretch!

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10* Bucs (ASSASSIN)

Tampa isn't going to win this game outright, but it also won't be rolling over. Yes, the 49ers looked sharp in last week's 34-3 win over Jacksonville, bouncing back from three straight losses after their bye week, but we're expecting them to get caught "looking ahead" here to their divisional matchup in Seattle next week. And that's then followed by a game at Philadelphia, followed by two more straight divisional matchups. This really does feel like a "trap" for San Francisco. Tampa broke a four-game slide last week as well with a 20-6 home win over Tennessee. The Bucs have now covered in three straight, and we're expecting that trend to follow through one more time in this favorable "spot" as well; a great situational play on Tampa Bay!

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10* UNDER Bengals/Ravens (TOTAL BLOWOUT)

The Bengals are 5-4 and the Ravens are 7-3. Cincinnati got caught looking ahead to this one in last week's 30-27 home loss to Houston as a 5.5-point favorite, snapping a four-game win streak. Baltimore's four-game win streak was also snapped in last week's 33-31 home loss to Cleveland as a six-point favorite. The Bengals play with revenge after a 27-24 loss at home to Baltimore, and note that Cinncy has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. a divisional opponent. Expect the short week to also help in contributing to a lower-scoring defensive battle; this number is high, the play is the "under!"

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10* Broncos (ASSASSIN)

Denver is 3-5. It went into its bye week last week off two straight victories, including an impressive 24-9 win over Kansas City. With a week off to prepare, we think that the Broncos are poised for another big performance. Buffalo is just 5-4 and it's been more "miss" than "hit" of late, coming offa 24-18 loss at Cincinnati last weekend. Buffalo has lost five straight ATS, but with over 65% of the public money backing the home side, we are definitely going to play contrarian here and grab up all these points; and that's the play, Denver!

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10* OVER Jets/Raiders (AFC NON-DIVISIONAL TOY)

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games to open the season, but we're expecting a much faster-paced, and ultimately higher-scoring outcome than what this O/U line is suggesting. This is a big game for both teams and we expect this to translate into offensive production on the field of play. The Jets had won three straight before last week's 27-6 setback at home to the Chargers, but note that NY has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last nine off a SU/ATS home loss as an underdog in its previous outing. Las Vegas snapped a two-game slide with a 30-6 win over New York, and we think it can match that offensive out put this week as well. These teams haven't played since 2020, and in that game they combined 59 points. We see a similar final combined score here this time around as well, as the overall situation combined with the numbers/trends do indeed point to the "over" as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in our opinion!

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10* 49ers (ASSASSIN)

At the start of the season we believed that Jacksonville was really undervalued, but now we think the Jags are getting a little too much respect here vs. an underachieving 49ers team that's off three staight SU/ATS losses in a row. Note that San Fran is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. San Fran comes out of its bye week, and there are now no excuses. The Jags come in complacent off their sixth straight win, a 20-10 victory over a listless Pittsburgh side. Look for the "hungrier" team to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish here and to not only win this game, but do so in blowout fashion; lay the points, the play is San Francisco.

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10* Carolina (ASSASSIN)

Carolina is 1-7 and Chicago is 2-7. These teams stink, but in a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points. Carolina comes in off a 27-13 loss to Indianapolis, while Chicago comes in off a second straight loss, this time in a 24-17 setback at New Orleans. Both teams have struggled in every facet of the game, but this in our opinion is a great "situational" play. Bryce Young is the best player on the field and we feel he'll bounce back here on prime-time; grab the points, the play is the Panthers!

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10* Jets (BLOOD-BATH)

In a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has it hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points. The Jets believe they can beat anyone right now and the Chargers are going to have their hands full in our estimation. LA is just 3-4 overall, including 1-2 on the road. New York is 4-3 overall, including 2-2 SU at home and 3-1 ATS. The Jets have extreme momentum right now after three straight SU/ATS victories in a row, against quality teams and in difficult situations. The Chargers lost two straight before last week's 30-13 home win over Chicago, but with a home game vs. Detroit next week, we feel the visitors will also get caught "looking ahead" here; a great "situational" play on New York!

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10* Bills (UNDERDOG GOY)

After a dreadful start, the Bengals are suddenly the hottest team in the league after three straight victories and covers (4-3 overall)?! We think they're now overvalued here big time though (note that Cinncy is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row.) Buffalo is 5-3 after last week's 24-18 tougher-than-expected victory against Tampa. But when you look a little closer at the Bucs, they really are one of the better defensive teams. The same can't really be said about the Bengals. They did score the 31-17 upset win at San Francisco, but something is "fishy" with that 49ers offense all of a sudden, so we'll caution in reading too much into that victory. Buffalo has two favorable home games after this, so a three-game win streak is a very realistic goal for this hungry visiting side. And that's how we see this one playing out, the Bengals finally taking a step back here and the Bills finally taking a step forward; grab the points, the play is Buffalo!

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10* Packers (BLOOD-BATH)

It's a big game for both of these NFC opponents, but more so for the 2-5 Packers in our opinion. LA is 3-5. The Rams have lost two straight, last week falling 43-20 at Dallas, and we think they'll have difficulty containing this now desperate home side. The only win in LA's last four games came against Arizona. At home. This is a look ahead spot as well for the Rams, who have a bye next week, followed by b2b divisional contests. It's been four straight SU/ATS losses for the Packers, and that's why nearly 80% of the early public money is all over LA here. The good news for Packers fans? There is still time to try and turn things around. It's now or never, do or die for Green Bay in our opinion and we're expecting it to step up and play like that; lay the points the play is indeed on Green Bay!

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10* Seahawks (NON-CONF GOM)

Two good non-conference opponents collide in Baltimore on Sunday afternoon, and in our opinion, everything points to this one coming down to whichever of these talented sides has its hands on the ball last. Despite going 0-3 ATS in its L3, Seattle is 2-1 SU in that span, beating Arizona and Cleveland. The Hawks are 2-1 on the road as well. The Ravens are off three straight wins, but with B2B divisional home games starting next week, not only does this set up as as "letdown" spot for the Ravens in our opinion, but also a "look-ahead" position (and when you add those two factors together, you get "trap game.") This spread is definitely "off." Grab the points, the play is Seattle!

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10* Titans (AFC NON-DIV GOY)

Pittsburgh is 4-3 after a listless 20-10 home loss to Jacksonville last week, while Tennessee snapped a two-game slide with an impressive 28-23 home win over Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog. These teams are suddenly moving in opposite directions and now here on the short week, we're expecting those trends to continue here on Thursday night. Will Levis was 19 for 29 for 238 yards and four TD's for Tennessee last week. Zero INT's. Derrick Henry was rumbling as well for 101 yards on 22 carries. And WR DeAndre Hopkins caught four passes for 128 yards and three TD's. The Steelers lost starting QB Kenny Pickett to injury in their loss last week and Mitch Trubisky came in and finished 15 of 27 for 138 yards, one TD and two INT's. He was also sacked twice. As good as Pittsburgh's defense is, we're expecting the now "firing on all cylinders" visiting side to continue that progression here on the road; grab the points, the play is Tennessee!

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10* UNDER Raiders/Lions (ASSASSIN)

We're expecting a very tight and lower-scoring defensive battle here. Detroit for the most part has looked great this year, but its two losses were really suspect. Clearly the Lions can't be feeling great about their 38-6 loss at Baltimore last weekend, but they ran into the league's No. 1 defense on the road and just weren't able to get anything going. Regardless, now back at home I'm expecting Detroit and Las Vegas to play to more of a "war of attrition" here. The Raiders are off the 30-12 loss at Chicago and we expect them to have difficulty moving the ball on the road consistently once again; this number is a little high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* OVER Chiefs/Broncos (AFC WEST TOY)

Here is a great situational play on the total. These teams just played two weeks ago and the Chiefs pulled away for the awkward 19-8 victory as 10.5-point favorites. KC has won six straight, but it's also seen the total go "under" the number in six straight. And why is that important?! Because note that KC has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. And note that Denver has seen the total go "over" the number in three of its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss vs. an opponent. Denver comes in off a season-saving 19-17 win over Green Bay here last weekend and if it can somehow pull off an upset here, it'll still be in contention before heading into its bye week. The overall situation, combined with the above listed O/U ATS stats does indeed make the "over" the correct call in this one and qualifies as our one and only 10* AFC WEST TOY!

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10* Patriots (AFC EAST GOW)

New England salvaged its season last week with a huge 29-25 home win over Buffalo as an 8.5-point underdog and now New England can take another step towards relevance with another upset here on the road against another division rival. Miami lost 48-20 at Buffalo this year, and it lost 31-17 at Philadelphia last weekend. We feel these clubs are moving in opposite directions. MIami's defense needs to be questioned here and we simply feel this is a few too many points to be giving up to this improving and desperate Patriots team; grab the points, the play is New England!

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10* Bucs (GOW)

Tampa Bay is 3-3, while Buffalo is 4-3. Both teams come in off defeats. The Bucs fell 16-13 to the Falcons in a tight division battle, while Buffalo fell 29-25 at New England. Buffalo started the year posting some crazy defensive numbers, but the unit looked pretty terrible last week, and we believe that'll leave the door open for Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield, who has 1,363 yards passing, eight TD's and four INT's. His counterpart today Josh Allen has 1,841 passing yards and 15:7 TD/INT. With a much more high-profile game at Cincinnati next weekend, the Bills could very easily be caught "looking past" their lowly non-conference opponent here today at home. We're expecting Mayfield to fight until the bitter end; grab the points, the play is Tampa Bay!

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10* Vikings (ULTIMATE ROUT)

The 49ers are 5-1, and are off their first loss of the year in a shaky 19-17 setback at Cleveland. Now they're once again a huge road favorite, and once again they're facing a non-conference team that's completely desperate as the Vikes enter at 2-4. Minnesota though comes in on the opposite end of the spectrum to San Francisco though, entering off a solid 19-13 road win at Chicago as a 3-point favorite. It was a crucial divisional victory, and now the Vikes have a golden opportunity to continue to gain ground today. And with a home game vs. the Bengals next, we feel that the visitors could also get caught "looking ahead" here. Look for Kirk Cousins to do more than enough to keep his team competitive down the stretch; the play is Minnesota!

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10* Broncos (NON-CONF GOW)

Two struggling teams collide here on Sunday afternoon in Denver, but in our estimation, the home field advantage simply can't be overlooked here in this matchup as being a very real deciding factor once it's all said and done. The Packers are off their bye week, and we don't think that the extra rest is going to help here at all. Green Bay is 2-3 SU, while Denver is just 1-5. The Broncos though have yet to even cover a spread, but that's going to change here finally in our opinion. Jordan Love has never been to Mile High, and we think he'll struggle in this difficult venue. It's been a complete disaster for Sean Payton and Russell Wilson once again this year, but we can expect the veteran pivot to get the better of his younger counterpart, who has been one of the worst in the NFL in terms of completion percentage. As mentioned off the top, the outright is clearly possible, but let's grab the points; the play is Denver!

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10* Patriots (AFC EAST GOM)

The Patriots are 1-5 SU and 0-3 SU/ATS at home, but we believe those streaks of futility will come to an end here this weekend. At least the ATS streaks, as we'll stop short in calling for the outright upset. That said, it's not entirely out of the question but in a contest that we seeing a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The Bills are clearly the better team here, but they've hardly been playing well at all of late, going just 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS the last two. They struggled to put away the Giants 14-9 at home last week. Now they face a division rival that's looking for any spark of positivity it can find. With a quick turn around and a game at home vs. Tampa Bay on Thursday night, not only does this set up as a letdown spot, but also a "look ahead" position for the visiting side; no outright, but closer than expected, the play is New England!

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10* Falcons (NFC SOUTH GOM)

While we absolutely believe the outright win is very possible, in the end we're recommending to grab as many points as you can in this important early divisional contest between two hungry teams. Atlanta is 3-3 and Tampa is 3-2. The Bucs have been hit or miss this year. Last week they fell 20-6 at home to Detroit. With a short week and a game at Buffalo on Thursday night, will Tampa get caught "looking ahead" here as well? It's very possible in our estimation. Same story for the Falcons with consistency this year, but after five straight ATS losses in a row after last week's 24-16 loss at home to Washington, we're finally expecting that streak to come to an end here (as note, the Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five after five or more ATS setbacks in a row!) As stated off the top, the outright is possible, but the official is to roll with the points; the play is Atlanta!

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10* Saints moneyline (NON-CONF. GOW)

The Jaguars are now 4-2 after winning their third straight in last week's 37-20 win at Indianapolis on Sunday. The Saints come in as the more motivated side here though after getting tripped up by Houston 20-13 last weekend. The Jags swept the Colts in the season series, but note that Jacksonville is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after three or more straight SU victories in a row. New Orleans' offense has been a work in progress all season, but Derek Carr is handling the pressure well and we expect him to move the ball here at home and the fact that this is a short week benefits the Saints as well. New Orleans defense has been great, and was the bright spot even in defeat last weekend. Look for Carr to finally have that break out game and for the Saints to indeed find a way to get the job done once it's all said and done at the end of the night! 

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10* Chargers (ATS BLOOD-BATH)

Dallas is 3-2 and coming off a humbling 42-10 loss at San Francisco last week. We think the Cowboys will once again struggle here on the road vs. the hungry 2-2 LA Chargers, who are coming out of their bye week ready and focused. Dallas only gained 197 yards last week and despite allowing a season-high 42 points in the setback, the defense still ranks No. 7 in the league. But Dak Prescott and the offense looked terrible as well and we just think that Just Herbert and company have a major advantage in every metric and on both sides of the ball here this afternoon. Look for "home field" to be a big advantage and prove to be a difference-maker for the Chargers on Monday night!

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10* Giants/Bills OVER (NON-CONF TOY)

The Bills are now 3-2 after falling 25-20 to Jacksonville in London last week. Note that Buffalo has seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last five after a SU/ATS loss as a favorite. The Giants are just 1-4, and another loss here will essentially be the final nail in the coffin for their 2023/24 campaign. Note that NY though has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after three or more straight losses in a row. Both teams are coming off losses, and each can't wait for the other to make the first mistake. With each side pushing the pace throughout like we anticipate, all signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* Bucs (BLOCKBUSTER)

Detroit is 4-1, while Tampa is 3-1. Home field will prove to be the difference here between these evenly matched teams in our opinion. The Lions do have the quality Week 1 win over the Chiefs, but their other victories haven't been super impressive, including last week's 42-24 win over Carolina. Jared Goff has been decent with 1,265 passing yards and a 9:3 TD:INT. The Lions concede 21.4 PPG. The Bucs enters focused and fresh out of their bye week. QB Baker Mayfield has 882 yards passing and a 7:2 TD:INT. But the Bucs have been downright awesome defensively so far, conceding just 17 PPG. Todd Bowles is a great defensive coach and in a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has it hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points; the play is Tampa!

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10* Browns (ULTIMATE CONTRARIAN)

As the title of this pick implies, the basis of this selection is us going against the general betting public, which has overwhelmingly backed the 49ers on the road here, because Cleveland will be playing without DeShaun Watson. Cleveland though comes out rested off its bye, and I think the Browns will be competitive here at home with tough defensive play. This game will be won in the trenches and by field position. Expect San Fran to be running the ball a lot today behind Christian McCaffrey. But the Browns allow the fewest yards in the NFL. PJ Walker will be a game manager, but we expect that to be more than enough for the home side to walk away with the comfortable cover; so grab the points, the play is indeed on Cleveland!

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10* Broncos (AFC WEST GOY)

Outright victory? Nah, we're not calling for that. But we do feel that KC will let the foot off the gas enough in the second half to allow the hungry Broncos to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what we feel is a large amount of points here. KC is 1-1 SU/ATS at home and returns home after two straight road victories at the Jets and Vikings. It's a potential letdown spot for the now surging Chiefs, who have another divisional home game next week vs. the Chargers. Denver is on the ropes. Clearly Sean Payton can't be too happy about the team he chose to come back to. It's do or die, now or never for Russell Wilson and the Broncos, who fell 31-21 at home to the Jets last weekend. The offense though is still a lot better than it was last year in averaging 24.2 PPG. The issue has been on the defensive side, allowing 36.2 PPG, including the 70-20 loss to Miami. We think Denver's defense won't have to worry about the Chiefs running up the score here, while at the same time we expect Wilson to be able to move the ball. This is just too many points; the play is Denver! 

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10* UNDER Packers/Raiders (BLOODBATH)

We're expecting a really defensive affair here. The Packers looked horrible in their loss to the Lions last week, especially offensively getting outgained 401-230. QB Jordan Love is struggling, ranked 34th in the league in completion percentage. The run game is still suffering without Aaron Jones, who may be back, but regardless, Green Bay will have to establish the run throughout here to alleviate the pressure off its struggling young pivot. Las Vegas should have Jimmy G back under center, but he'll be more of a "game manager" here. Look for Josh Jacobs to finally get involved more for LV as well this week; when you add it all up, this number is indeed a little high, so the play is the "under!" 

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10* Cowboys (NFC NON-DIV GOM)

Two really good teams collide here on Sunday night and in a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points. Dallas is 3-1, while San Francisco is 4-0. The 49ers beat Arizona at home last week, while the Cowboys hammered the Patriots at home. This is a revenge game for the visiting side, which fell 19-12 in the divisional round of last year's playoffs. So far Dak Prescott and the Cowboys average 31 PPG, while allowing only 10.3. Brock Purdy and the 49ers average 31.3 PPG, while allowing just 14.6. This really is a case of "Any Given Sunday," as it would not be hard to write a convincing argument for either of these sides to come out on top in this one. For all the reasons listed above, grab as many points as you can; the play is Dallas!

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10* Vikings (NON-CONF GOY)

Note that since 2018 with Patrick Mahomes as the full-time starting QB for KC, the Chiefs are are 17-19 ATS as a road favorite. Despite stumbling at home on Opening night, the Chiefs now enter Week 5 at 3-1. The Vikes though are on the ropes at 1-3, and clearly they'll be risking life and limb here to pull off the minor upset and avoid the 1-4 hole. After three straight losses the Vikes got back on track in last week's 21-13 road win at Carolina. A road game at division rival Chicago won't be easy the following week, so this becomes an almost "do or die" scenario for the Vikes already. KC has won three straight, but it certainly looked shaky in last Sunday night's 23-20 victory at the Jets as a 9-point favorite. With a quick turnaround and a Thursday night game up next at home vs. the Broncos, this not only sets up as a "letdown" spot for KC, but also a "look-ahead" position as well in our opinion, and when you add those two factors together you get "trap game." The outright win is possible, but let's grab the points; the play is Minnesota!

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10* FALCONS (ASSASSIN)

Both teams are 2-2, but we can't understate how important that we feel that the home field advantage will prove for the Falcons in the final outcome of this non-conference contest. Houston is off a 30-6 win at home over Pittsburgh, and we're expecting a predictable letdown hereon the road now. Atlanta is off a 23-7 loss in London to Jacksonville in its last outing. So far Houston has gotten great play from QB CJ Stroud with a 6:0 TD:INT. Overall Houston is averaging 24 PPG, while allowing 19.8. The Falcons are led by RB Bijan Robinson and a run game that averages 128 YPG. ATL has so far averaged only 15.5 PPG, while allowing only 19.25. Look for Desmond Ridder to settle down here at home and for ATL's elite defense to finally get to Stroud. While the rest of the public goes one way on this contest, we're going the other; the play is Atlanta!

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10* Giants (BLOOD-BATH)

In no way are we suggesting that New York will win this game outright, but we do however feel this is a great situational play as we expect the 1-3 Giants to catch the 3-1 Dolphins at the correct time to keep this one more competitive than what this lop-sided spread is suggesting. Miami beat Denver 70-20, but then came back down to Earth in last week's 48-20 beatdown division road loss at Buffalo. Daniel Jones has so far struggled for the Giants with a 2:6 TD:INT. He's been sacked 22 times already though. The defense hasn't been much better, so far allowing 30.5 PPG. Tua Tagovailoa as a 9:3 TD:INT, but the defense for the Fish is very worrisome, allowing 374.5 YAPG and 29.8 points per contest. This one takes on a very "do or die" feel for the Giants, who took a major step forward last year, but who have regressed so far this season. Look for Miami to take the foot off the gas in the second half and for the hungry Giants to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the large spread that they've been afforded here on the road in Week 5; grab the points, the play is New York!

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10* BEARS (GOW)

The Bears are 0-4, blowing a 21-point lead last week at home to the Broncos and falling 31-28 as 3-point dogs. It's do or die for Chicago this week. Essentially, the season is already over, but for all intents and purposes, there will be zero chance of the playoffs at 0-5. Washington is 2-2, but it's now lost two straight after also choking away a big lead on the road to the Eagles. Both teams come in off terrible losses, but we still believe that the Bears will be the more motivated side here. The Bears got the best game of the season out of Justin Fields last week, going 28 of 35 for 335 yards and 4:1 TD:INT. Sam Howell on the other hand has a 5:4 TD:INT so far this year. We're giving Fields the advantage here and we believe that Chicago has a legitimate shot at winning this one outright; that said, grab the points!

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10* UNDER Hawks/Giants (TOW)

This total has been bet up since the opening number, and we now feel its too high. We liked the opening number as well to go under the number. Either way, we're not expecting a shootout here, but instead we expect this game to be won in the trenches, and with field position, similar to what we saw on Sunday night between the Chiefs and Jets. Seattle is unbelievably 5-0 in this building, but after playing to B2B "overs," and with their bye week up next, we're expecting the Hawks to have their hands full here with this hungry home side looking to avoid falling to 1-3. With each team committed to establishing the run like we predict, we're indeed expecting a lower-scoring defensive battle here on Monday night; the play is the "under!" 

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10* Saints (NFC SOUTH GOM)

Both NFC South teams are 2-1, so the winner will have a big leg up in the division. New Orleans though gets ready to welcome back dynamic RB Alvin Kamara, and we feel he'll be a big difference-maker in the outcome of this one. Tampa was riding high after two games, but it sure came back down to Earth in last week's loss. Tampa's defense has been great, but we feel it'll finally struggle here to keep Mayfield from looking terrible. Derek Carr is out for the Saints, but that just means that his equal in Jameis Winston steps up to take over, super motivated here to now maintain this starters role. We expect Mayfield to take another predictable step back again here in this difficult road venue; the play is New Orleans!

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10* Texans (UNDERDOG GOM)

Pittsburgh is 2-1 SU, while Houston is 1-2. The Steelers are off an impressive 23-18 win at Las Vegas as 3-point dogs, but with a home game vs. division rival Baltimore next weekend, not only do we feel this sets up as a letdown spot after the upset road win, but also a look ahead spot. This is a "trap" game for Pittsburgh. Houston on the other hand comes in off its first win of the year, demolishing the Jaguars 37-17 as 7.5-point underdogs. While we do feel the outright win is possible, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can with Houston!

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10* Packers (NFC NORTH GOM)

They say that divisional games are the most important, and they almost always mean the most to the home side. Yes, Detroit may on paper have played the harder schedule to this point, but the bottom line here is that these teams are both 2-1. The winner of this game will have a clear leg up in the division. They'll play the reverse fixture in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day. We expect Jordan Love to continue his progression here though and to get the better of his counterpart Jared Goff on the road, who has been consistently inconsistent away from friendly confines. A great "situational" play on the Packers!

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10* UNDER Rams/Bengals (BLOCKBUSTER)

Two teams in desperate need of a win collide here on Monday night. Non-conference games are usually less intense defensively, but we're not expecting that to be the case here tonight though, as Cincinnati will be risking life and limb to not only win this game (as the Bengals enter 0-2), but to also control the pace throughout. With each side committed to establshing the run while on offense like we envision, all signs point to this one staying well "under" the number once it's all said and done!

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10* EAGLES FIRST HALF (ASSASSIN) (NOTE: We also like the Eagles for the ENTIRE game, so if you don't have access to a FIRST HALF line, we also like Philly for the overall ATS victory in this contest as well.) 

Both teams enter 2-0, but we're expecting the Eagles to really hammer Baker Mayfield and the home side from start to finish in this one. Philly has had a few extra days off after beating Minnesota 34-28 lats Thursday. Tampa is off a 27-17 win over the lowly Bears. Philadelphia has been involved in two one-score games, and because of that, we're expecting the visitors to take nothing for granted and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. With a road game at division rival New Orleans next weekend, the home side will also get caught "looking ahead;" the play is Philadelphia!

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10* Cardinals (U OF THE U)

The Cowboys are riding high at 2-0 after blowing out the Jets by a score of 30-10 last weekend, and we believe they'll get caught "looking ahead" here to their home game vs. the Patriots next weekend. Joshua Dobbs wasn't terrible in last week's 32-18 home defeat to the Giants. While 0-2 SU, the Cards have been great for bettors in the early going by going 2-0 ATS. Teams that start 0-3 in the NFL to open the season have virtually zero chance of making the playoffs. Expectations were extremely low for the Cards going into the season, but we're expecting Josh Dobbs best game so far; grab the points, the play is Arizona!

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10* Panthers (BEST OF BEST)

We base our picks on many different things. In our opinion, this is a great "situational" play. Carolina comes in desperate to snap its 0-2 slide to the season. Teams that start 0-3 have virtually no chance of even making the playoffs. It's hard to get a read on Seattle. It lost here terribly to the Rams in Week 1, before bouncing back with a 37-31 OT win at Detroit last week. With back-to-back high-profile road games at the Giants and Bengals, will Seattle get caught "looking past" its lowly opponent this weekend? The possibility is definitely there! It happened to the Hawks in Week 1. Whoever gets the start under center for Carolina, we expect this game to be decided in the final moments; grab the points, the play is the Panthers!

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10* Falcons (ASSASSIN)

Here's the bottom line with this play. We feel that Atlanta is getting little respect from the oddsmakers are 2-0, and we also believe there's been WAY too much hype surrounding the Lions before the season even started, and certainly still right now at 1-1. The Lions squeaked by the Chiefs on opening night 21-20. It was a really good win, but then the defense fell flat in 37-31 OT loss at home to Seattle. With a short week and a road game at Green Bay on Thursday night, the 2-0 Falcons are going to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch; grab the points, the play is Atlanta!

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10* OVER Giants/49ers (TOW)

New York was shutout in Week 1 at home by the Cowboys, and then it went into its Week 2 matchup in Arizona down 28-0. The Giants then made the "mother of all half time adjustments" and came out and won the game by a score of 31-28. Working on a short week, and catching a contented 49ers team returning home from a 2-0 road start, we expect the visiting side to put some points on the board and keep that offensive momentum rolling here in San Francisco. This is a huge spread for San Fran to cover, but we're also note sure if NY will in fact be able to keep pace down the stretch. Either way, we do think NY will points on the board as it tries to keep pace with the red hot home side. This number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* Panthers (ASSASSIN)

We're going contrarian with this one. Carolina fell 24-10 at Atlanta in Week 1, while New Orleans held on for a 16-15 win over Tennessee at home, unable to cover the three-point spread. Honestly, both teams looked bad. Division rivals are always the most important though, and they almost always mean more to the home side. And that's the case here in our opinion. Derek Carr had 305 yards passing and a TD for the Saints, while Bryce Young was 20 of 38 for 146 yards, one TD and two INT's. With that awkward game out of the way though, we're expecting Young to settle down here at home. Carolina's defense held Atlanta to just 221 offensive yards. The Saints are still without Alvin Kamara as well. In a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points; the play is Carolina!

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10* Patriots (AFC EAST GOY)

Divisional matchups are always the most important and they almost always mean the most to the home side. And that's definitely the case here in our opinion, as we expect New England to win this game outright. That said, our official call is to grab as many points as you can. Miami fought tooth and nail with the Chargers on the road in Week 1 and it escaped with a thrilling 36-34 victory as a 3-point underdog. Now they face a New England team that comes off a tough 25-20 home loss to the high-powered Eagles. Lots of good things for Mac Jones and company though. The defense looked great and Jones finished with 315 passing yards. While the outright win is possible, the play is to grab the points with NEW ENGLAND.

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10* Lions (SUPER BLOWOUT)

The Seahawks surprised everyone last year, but in Week 1, they fell at home to division rival LA as a favorite. Now they're facing a confident and well-rested Lions team at home and all signs point to a big time blowout in our opinion. Hawks' QB Geno Smith was just 16 of 26 for 112 passing yads and a TD. The defense looked terrible, and we have a hard time seeing it slowing down Jared Goff and company in what will be a sold out Ford Field. Goff had 225 yards and a TD in their upset win on Opening night over the Chiefs. We're expecting a completely lop-sided blowout, so lay the points, the play is Detroit!

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10* Colts (ASSASSIN)

What do you base your picks on? We use many different methodologies and approaches. Sometimes we break a game wide open, looking at every player matchup and every statistic we can get. Other times though we like to "keep it simple." This week and for this game we're "keeping it simple" and giving this particular matchup the "eye test." We really liked what we saw out of the Colts in Week 1, as their young QB looks legit. The Texans looked inept in their 25-9 loss at Baltimore. Look for the Colts' progression to continue here and grab as many points as you can!

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10* UNDER Chiefs/Jags (AFC NON-DIV TOW)

The Chiefs looked shaky in Week 1 without Jason Kelce, and whether he's in the line-up or not, we feel KC will once again have difficulties moving the ball. Trevor Lawrence and company will look to win this game in the trenches and with field position. Weather could be an issue here as well, with Hurricane Lee ripping off the coast right now. We see this one being a really gritty, lower-scoring battle that indeed stays well "under" the number once it's all said and done.

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10* OVER Vikes/Eagles.

The bottom line here is that Mac Jones threw for 315 yards on the Eagles' secondary, and we just feel that Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson will also be able to take advantage here. Clearly the Eagles won't be rolling over here after that somewhat uninspiring performance at New England, which saw them go up early, and then for some reason take the foot off the gas. Perhaps they were caught looking ahead to this game?! Either way, we can expect Jalen Hurts and company to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in their home opener. This number is low, the play is the OVER.

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10* UNDER Bills/Jets (ASSASSIN)

It's going to take some time for Aaron Rodgers to develop chemistry with his new team. They'll be looking to run the ball heavily to open things up, to alleviate as much pressure off him as possible. The Jets will be better served keeping Josh Allen off the field of play as much as possible anyways. New York actually had one of the best defenses in the league last year, allowing the fourth least amount of PPG. THe last thing NY wants to do is turn this into a "shootout;" this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* Giants (SUPER BLOWOUT)

Both teams advanced to the second round of the playoffs last year before then falling. Dallas has some talent to replace on offense this season though, and we've never been a big fan of Dak Prescott's. Dallas looks poised for a big step back this year after flailing once again last season. The Giants exceeded expectations by finishing 9-8 and in a contest that we see being decided late, or by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points (but note, we wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset or anything either); the play is New York!

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10* Eagles FIRST HALF (NON-CONF FH GOW)

NOTE: If you don't have access to FIRST HALF lines, then we still like this game as well for the entire game.

Philadelphia was 14-3 last year and it then lost in the Super Bowl to the Chiefs by the slimmest of margins. The Pats were 8-9. Mac Jones and the Pats should do a lot better in his third year and with a new OC, but the Eagles are primed to hit the ground running in our estimation. What's the best way to take the crowd out of this game, which will be hyped becuase of a Tom Brady ceremony? Burying them in the first half. And that's exactly what we're expecting the dynamic Jalen Hurts and company to do; the play is Philadelphia!

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10* RAVENS FIRST HALF (ASSASSIN)

NOTE: We also like Baltimore for the entire game, so if you don't have half time lines available, we're also suggesting a play on Baltimore for the ENTIRE game.

The Ravens have had a busy off-season, including locking up Lamar Jackson, signing Odell Beckham Jr. among other moves. Houston has CJ Stroud, who could go on to become the next John Elway, but he's going to be in over his head here on the road in this difficult road venue; the play is BALTIMORE.

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10* Vikings (NON-DIV. NFC GOY)

Baker Mayfield's career is on the line here. It's now or never for Mayfield, and he'll likely be without his top receiver in Mike Evans. There's plenty of off-field drama going on in Tampa and we expect Minnesota to take advantage of that fact here in Week 1, coming in as the more prepared team will result in a decisive and lop-sided decision. The Vikes won the NFC North last year and while they have a few question marks here and there, everything points to a comfortable win and cover here at home in our opinion; lay the points, the play is Minnesota!

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10* Lions (BLOCKBUSTER)

The Lions finished 9-8 last year, while the Chiefs went on to win the Super Bowl, their second in the last four years. The Chiefs' QB Patrick Mahomes is always an X-Factor despite who is on his line-up, but with six key starters from last year's record-breaking offense gone, there's going to be a small amount of transition time here for the KC offense to find the same chemistry as it clearly had last season. The Lions' defense was their weak-point all year, but the unit made big strides in the second half of the season, allowing just 20.2 PPG. Detroit is ready to hit the ground running and won't at all be intimidated here. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points, the play is Detroit!

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10* GAME OF MONTH on the Eagles MONEY LINE (GOM)

The bottom line here with this one, just to cut right to the chase, is that I believe that the Chiefs are a very mediocre team against really good defenses. If you're wagering on this game, then you likely know the cast of characters on each team, both players and coaches. You know the strengths and weaknesses of each team. And if you don't, you just need to go to ESPN or google it and literally millions of "review" articles will get you caught up to speed on how each team got to this point. But as I said, Kansas City was really mediocre this season vs. good pass rushing teams. And the Chiefs' defense isn't instilling the "fear of God" into anyone either. I'm going to bypass the spread, and just play the Eagles to win the Super Bowl straight-up!

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