This is a 10* on the OVER

With the exception of the Monday night game vs. Kansas City, Baltimore has run roughshod over the rest of the league, winning four games by 14 points or more. This week they travel to Philadelphia to face a wounded Eagles team that’s 1-3-1 overall and just gave up 38 points to Pittsburgh last week. Seeing as how the Ravens have scored at least 27 points in all of their wins this year, we see this game going Over the total with little drama. The Ravens probably could have scored even more if they “wanted” last week, but with such a commanding lead over the Bengals, they clearly took their foot off the gas in the second half. The Eagles are likely to be playing “catch up” most of the way here and one positive for them is that they have increased their scoring from the previous week in every game this season. But a defense that’s given up an average of 29 points/game while facing some not very good offenses is in for a rough one this week. The Over is 4-0 for Philadelphia the last four seasons in Week 6. That trend stays alive this week. Consider how much scoring we’re seeing across the league this year, this number seems low. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on CAROLINA

Two overachieving teams meet in Charlotte this Sunday with the 3-2 Panthers hosting the 4-1 Bears. What’s really remarkable about those two won-loss records is that the teams have combined to be favored in just ONE game all year. That was when the Bears hosted the Giants and they did not cover the spread! Carolina has won as an underdog each of the last three weeks. We do not see an upset in this game. In three of their four wins this year (Giants being the exception), Chicago has come back from a double digit deficit. They gained just 4.1 yards per play against Tampa Bay last Thursday and were outgained by nearly 100 yards in the game. That they won should be considered a minor miracle. This is an offense that has failed to gain even 300 total yards in either of the two games Nick Foles has started. They have scored just 31 points in those two games. The Carolina defense has looked much improved during the three-game win streak, giving up an average of just 17.7 points/game. A 4-1 team that’s being outgained per play and per game would seem to be rather fraudulent. The Bears are just that and they are 0-5 ATS off their last five ATS wins. Play on CAROLINA

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

The 4-0 Bills and 3-0 Titans had to wait a couple extra days, but finally get to “hook it up” in a special TUESDAY night edition of the NFL. Tennessee did not play last week as it was a COVID-19 outbreak among their ranks that not only forced a cancellation, but the postponement here. Buffalo was originally going to host Kansas City this Thursday, but that game had to be bumped back to Monday due to the situation here. So by the time these teams do hit the field, there will have already been a lot of moving pieces dealt with. We don’t think either offense is going to be firing on all cylinders given the circumstance and will take the Under. Depending on what your closing line for last week’s game with Las Vegas was, there is a chance that you have the Bills at 4-0 Over. They’ve hit 30+ points three weeks in a row as the offense has greatly exceeded expectations thus far. Tennessee is off two straight 30+ point games, but those might as well have been last season. They are missing multiple receivers now including Corey Davis. This will be the highest total either team has faced so far this season. Under is 20-8-1 Bills L29 road games. Play on UNDER

This is an 10* on LA/NO Over

New Orleans has gone Over in every game thus far, scoring 30 or more points themselves three times. They’ve also given up 29 or more points in three straight games. Last week, they won a 35-29 shootout at Detroit. We had the Saints in that one and watched them score touchdowns on five consecutive drives after trailing 14-0 early. They had 29 first downs and this was without WR Michael Thomas, who could be back for this game. As long as Alvin Kamara is part of the offense, it will continue to score. He already has 557 total yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns. The Chargers had not gone Over in a game this year until last week’s 38-31 loss to the Buccaneers. That was a wild one and while LA lost, the offense is definitely in better hands with rookie QB Justin Herbert guiding it as opposed to veteran Tyrod Taylor. We think both teams are going to be able to move the ball up and down the field in this Monday nighter and given NFL games are averaging right around 51.5 points for the year, this total is too low considering the Saints are involved. The Over is 6-2 in New Orleans’ last eight MNF appearances, one of those coming three weeks ago vs. Las Vegas. The Over is also 10-4 the Chargers’ L14 games after allowing 30 or more the previous week. The Over is 5-0 the L5 times these teams have met. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on DALLAS 

The Cowboys are 0-4 against the spread. The only other winless ATS teams are: the Jets, Texans and Titans. The Titans have played only three games (but are 3-0 straight up!) while the other two teams on that list are both 0-4 SU. The Cowboys are lucky not to be 0-4 SU also. Their only win was a huge comeback at Atlanta. Dak Prescott and the offense are doing just fine, thank you (#1 in yards per game!). But the Dallas defense stinks right now as it is giving up the third most yards and most points per game. That’s where a matchup with the 0-4 Giants comes in. New York’s offense, minus Saquon Barkley, simply isn’t good enough to take advantage of the Dallas defense the same way previous opponents have. The G-Men are averaging the second fewest yards and the fewest points in the league right now. We faded Dallas last week (outright winner with Cleveland!) and while we don’t necessarily trust them to cover the full game spread this week, we expect a fast start. All they need to be is up a touchdown and that seems very doable against a side averaging just 5.5 points per game in the first half this year. Play on DALLAS 

AAA

This is a 10* on ARIZONA

Arizona seemed like it would be a “surprise team” in 2020 as they started 2-0, including a win over the NFC Champion 49ers. But the last two weeks have seen them lose as favorites to the Lions and Panthers. That’s just not acceptable if they wish to be taken seriously. Fortunately for Kliff Kingsbury, this week’s opponent is the Jets and that’s a team no one is taking seriously right now. The Jets might be the worst team in the league at this point. Sam Darnold wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire before getting hurt last Thursday vs. Denver. If he’s out, then the Jets would have to go with the ancient Joe Flacco at quarterback. In that Thursday night game vs. the Broncos, the Jets were +3 in turnovers and still lost by nine at home. That was to a winless team starting the undrafted Brett Rypien at QB on a short week! Arizona easily could have been 3-0 going into last week’s game. They played poorly at Carolina, plain and simple. But they are talented enough to bounce back with a big win here against a team that’s giving up almost 35 points per game over the L3 weeks. The Jets offense has no talent left at the skill positions and has lost every game by at least nine points. Play on ARIZONA

AAA

This is a 10* on TB

In a year where scoring is at an all-time record pace, the Bears seem to be a little “slow on the uptake.” They are averaging only 21.3 points per game, which ranks in the bottom quarter of the league, and that number would be even lower were it not for a couple of miracle 4th quarter comebacks against Detroit and Atlanta, two of the worst defensive teams in football. Switching to Nick Foles at QB produced a “one-week miracle” against Atlanta, but had no effect last week when the Bears faced the tough defense of the Colts. Up until a “garbage-time” drive late in the 4th quarter, Foles and the Bears offense had produced all of 3 points and 179 total yards vs. Indy. Now, on a short week, they must deal with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, who have won three straight (averaging 32.3 points/game) since a season-opening loss to the Saints (whom they held below 300 total yards). The Bucs had almost 500 yards of offense last week in a comeback effort over the Chargers. Brady threw TD passes to five different receivers. Chicago is 4-12 ATS its last 16 games and 0-6 ATS its L6 vs. teams with winning records. That 3-0 start was a total mirage as they beat three teams that are now a combined 1-11 SU. Play on TAMPA BAY

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Two playoff teams from last season both have their fair share of issues going into Sunday night. The 49ers are as banged up as any team in football right now, having already lost their QB, RB, top two receivers and top two defensive players. Some of those players could return this week though. TE George Kittle is the most likely (to return) while WR Samuel also could find his way back on the field. Regardless of the absences, the 49ers have found a way to score 30+ points in back to back games. Backup QB Nick Mullens is fine. Philadelphia is 0-2-1 with QB Carson Wentz struggling. But we can seem him getting things going this week against a 49ers defense whose numbers are skewed after facing the likes of Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones the last two weeks. Two of the Eagles three games have gone Over and had they not settled for a tie with the Bengals last week, the Over would be 3-0. This is a low total relative to the rest of this week’s card. The Over is 18-5 the L23 times Philly has been a road underdog. It is 6-2 Over the L8 times the 49ers have been home favorites. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on SEA

Seattle, for all its defensive faults, still has Russell Wilson and as long as they’re letting the early frontrunner for MVP “cook,” they’ll be just fine. A Miami team that’s off a very misleading 31-13 win over Jacksonville 10 days ago is simply no match here. The Dolphins actually gained less than 300 total yards in that Thursday night win, a number which simply won’t cut it against an opponent like the Seahawks that has put up 35+ points in every game. Wilson’s 14 TD passes through three weeks is an NFL record. The Miami defense really struggled against running QBs Cam Newton and Josh Allen the first two weeks. They gave up an alarming number of yards per play against Buffalo in Week 2. Early start times don’t bother the 3-0 ATS Seahawks, who have covered the number 7 of the last 9 times they’ve played at 1 PM ET (7-1-1). That includes a dominant win over Atlanta in Week 1 (they are the only team not to fall behind by double digits against the Falcons). Laying less than a touchdown is key here. Play on SEATTLE

AAA

This is a 8* on NO

New Orleans is off to a bit of a slow start. After beating Tampa Bay in Week 1, the Saints have subsequently lost to the Raiders and Packers, leaving them at 1-2 despite being a favorite all three times. They’re a favorite again here in Detroit against a Lions team that just won for the first time last week, a surprise upset at Arizona. This marks the first time the Saints have lost two straight in three years. They are expected to get WR Michael Thomas back, which is huge, and laying points shouldn’t concern you as the team’s 12-4 record as a road favorite is a league-best since 2016. Overall, they’ve covered 24 of their last 33 road games, also the best run in the league. There really is nothing wrong with the Saints offense as Alvin Kamara has a NFL-high six touchdowns and now gets to go against a Detroit defense that has really struggled for Matt Patricia. If not for a +3 turnover margin last week vs. Arizona, the Lions would likely be 0-3 coming into this game. Laying a short number seems like a real steal given the disparity in talent between the two teams. Play on NEW ORLEANS

AAA

This is an 8* on CLE

Even though the Cowboys are 1-2, they are still considered one of the more talented teams in this league. And the Browns needed five turnovers last week to beat Washington 34-20. So “the world” figures to be laying the points in this one. But we’re taking ‘em (the points, that is) as Dallas would be 0-3 right now had they not delivered that miracle comeback in Atlanta two weeks ago. They are 0-3 against the spread. In three games, they have had the lead for less than 14 minutes. The defense has given up 77 points the last two games and now faces a Browns offense that has scored 69 the last two weeks. Cleveland has a very good running game, thanks to perhaps the best duo of backs in the league, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. That Dallas defense is giving up over 400 yards per game including 128 on the ground. The Cowboys have covered just one of the last five times they have been the betting favorite. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is a 10* on DEN

Denver has made the decision to start Brett Rypien at QB this week. He’ll be their third starter in as many weeks. The Broncos are 0-3 and averaging just 15 points/game. They are off a terrible showing vs. Tampa Bay where they were beaten 28-10 at home and barely gained over 200 yards. BUT…. Thursday night they are up against the Jets, who have been the WORST team in the league through three weeks. The Jets are also 0-3, but all of their losses have been by 10 points or greater. At least you can say Denver has been competitive this year as they lost to Tennessee on a last second field goal and then hung with the Steelers (in Pittsburgh), losing by just five points despite Jeff Driskell being called into emergency QB duty. The Jets only average 12.3 points/game and each loss has gotten progressively worse as they’ve lost by 10, 18 and then 29. Denver is 10-3 ATS their L13 Thursday night games and a perfect 5-0 ATS after being held to 15 points or less in their last game. While the injuries remain a concern, the Broncos were expected to be competitive this year. Can’t say the same for the Jets as Adam Gase has proven himself to be a horrendous coach. Rypien will play well enough to win here. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is a 10* on KC

What a matchup we have Monday night as it’s the Chiefs taking on the Ravens in a battle of the two top AFC teams. Winner here could very likely have an inside track on home field advantage for the playoffs, which is now more important than ever with the format having changed (only one team gets a first round bye). While Baltimore has won 14 straight regular season games outright (11-2-1 ATS!), all good things must come to an end as KC found out last week when their own 10-game ATS win streak ended with a close overtime victory in LA over the Chargers. The key here is the Chiefs being underdogs. They’ve covered 10 of the last 13 times getting points including 5-0-1 ATS with Mahomes as the starting QB. In the past 20 seasons, defending Super Bowl Champs getting points in the first three weeks of the season have gone a remarkable 11-1 ATS. Last week marked just the second time in Mahomes career that he didn’t cover in the month of September. In 12 career September games, he has an outrageous 28-0 TD-INT ratio! This matchup is a little bit of the “immovable object” against the “irresistible force” and we love the idea of getting points. Play on KANSAS CITY

This is a 10* on OVER

The Saints might be at home and favored, but the Packers are the team with all the momentum heading into this Sunday night matchup. Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay are 2-0, having put up two 40+ games so far. Now those came against Minnesota and Detroit, two teams that are a combined 0-4. But let’s not forget the Saints just allowed 34 points Monday night to Las Vegas. Even though the narrative is that New Orleans’ offense is “struggling,” that group is still averaging 29 points/game. Most teams would love for that to be considered “struggling.” The Over is a combined 4-0 in these teams games this season. Expect this to be another shootout as its two of the greatest quarterbacks of all time going up against some suspect defenses. Green Bay did allow a frightening number of yards per play against Minnesota in Week 1 (7.8). They also gave up touchdowns on the first two drives vs. Detroit.  This is one of those deals where the oddsmakers probably can’t make the total “high enough” as the Over is 23-11 in GB’s last 34 road games. The Over has also gone 7-1 the last eight times these teams have played. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on SEATTLE

This will be a big game in the 4PM (ET) window as the 2-0 Seahawks host the Cowboys. Dallas is very lucky not to be winless after two weeks. Last week, they had an incredible rally from a 19-point deficit that included 16 points in the final five minutes. It’s a good thing they were playing Atlanta as the Falcons seem like one of the few teams capable of blowing a lead like that. Seattle is a different story. Russell Wilson has this team looking very good. They didn’t have any problems with Atlanta, beating them 38-25 in Week 1. Then they came home to defeat New England 35-30 in the Sunday night game last week. The Seahawks offense is averaging 7.2 yards per play so far and it’s not like the Dallas defense has looked all that great. Mike McCarthy isn’t a great coach either. The Dallas offense, despite all the talent, tends to struggle on the road. Remember they lost to the Rams in Week 1 and scored only 17 points. That was the 4th straight road loss for Big D and the offense has failed to score a TD in two of those four losses. In its last 45 drives on the road, the Cowboys have found the end zone a total of five times and three of those were in the fourth quarter of a 31-24 loss at Chicago. They are just 2-7 ATS L9 games vs. a team that has a winning record. Play on SEATTLE

AAA

This is a 10* on the CHARGERS

Carolina wasn’t expected to be very good. But with the loss of their best player, things figure to get even worse. RB Christian McCaffery is out for at least the next three weeks. The Panthers have started 0-2 with losses to the Raiders and Buccaneers. Their defense has given up 65 points and now the offense, which turned it over four times last week, has been severely weakened. It is very difficult seeing Carolina breaking into the win column without McCaffery. As for the Chargers, they nearly beat the Chiefs last week and that was despite losing starting QB Tyrod Taylor shortly before kickoff. First round draft pick Justin Herbert stepped up and had a promising pro debut, throwing for over 300 yards. But perhaps more impressive was the defense holding Patrick Mahomes to 20 points in regulation. Were it not for TWO 58-yard field goals from KC’s kicker, the Chargers would have won that game. They’ll win this one - pretty easily in fact. With Carolina’s defense being so bad, the Chargers will have their highest point total to date. With McCaffery out, and the Chargers allowing just 18 PPG, the Panthers aren’t going to score much. Add it up and we’ve got a potential blowout on our hands. Going back to last year, Carolina has lost 10 straight games. They’ve covered just 5 of their last 16 road games. Play on LA CHARGERS

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

Two of the NFL’s three Floridian teams meet in the Week 3 opener Thursday night. Jacksonville was supposedly tanking this year, but at 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS has been surprisingly competitive thus far. Miami is 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, a disappointment to those who thought this team might be competitive in the AFC East this season. Thus far, the Dolphins defense has not played very well. Particularly last week when they surrendered 524 yards on a horrific 8.9 yard per play average against the Bills. Even though it's a short turnaround and they’re playing on the road, we look for Brian Flores’ D to turn it around this week. Jacksonville, despite averaging 28.5 points/game, lacks the kind of weapons that Buffalo and New England (Miami’s Week 1 opponent) have. With Miami, it should be pointed out that they had scored only 24 points through the first seven quarters of the season. The clock is clearly ticking on QB Tannehill as the fans want to see Tua. The Under is 9-4 in Jacksonville’s last 13 home games as well as 7-1 the L8 times they allowed 30 or more points the previous game. The Under is also 6-1 the last 7 times these teams have played. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

We’ve got two teams on Monday Night Football that scored 34 points last week. Both teams also gave up their fair share (of points) last week, so it was 2 for 2 when it comes to Overs. With New Orleans, both the quarterback and coach seemed dissatisfied with their performance. Brees and Payton are likely to be much more satisfied with themselves after facing this terrible Raiders defense this week. Last week Las Vegas gave up almost 400 yards to a Carolina team with a 1st year head coach and new starting quarterback. That’s really nothing new for the Raiders. Over the last three seasons, they have ranked second to last in points allowed and dead last in yards per play allowed. They allowed 6.1 yards per play last week vs. Carolina. Even though they won’t have WR Thomas, look for the Saints to move the ball up and down the field in this game. Las Vegas should put up a decent number too, in their brand new stadium. The Over is 5-2 in the Saints last seven Monday night games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on SEA

Seattle was one of the more impressive teams in Week 1. They beat Atlanta 38-25 and while the defense gave up plenty of yards, that hardly mattered with Russell Wilson playing as well as he did. Wilson threw 4 TD passes and completed 31 of his 35 attempts. The Seahawks won 11 games last year and brought back most of the key pieces. There’s no reason to believe they won’t have another successful season. New England is also accustomed to successful seasons, having had 20 years worth under Bill Belichick. Only now Tom Brady isn’t the QB. Cam Newton is. Newton had a solid start to his Patriots career, giving the offense a rushing dynamic it never had previously, but that was against Miami. Now they face a much stronger opponent and the Seahawks coaching staff still resents the Super Bowl loss from a few years back. This will snap the Patriots’ streak of 64 consecutive regular season games being favored. That makes a lot of sense given Seattle’s continuity plus it is very hard to win here at night. New England’s defense is set to take a hit this year. They lived off turnovers in 2019. While they forced three Miami TO’s last week, Seattle didn’t turn it over once in its opening game. The Patriots have failed to cover five straight times off a win. Play on SEATTLE

AAA

This is a 10* on SF

Yes, the 49ers have some injury concerns heading into Week 2. But we don’t think they’ll have much difficulty beating the hapless Jets on Sunday. You’ve got two teams that lost last week here. San Francisco’s loss was a surprise as they were 7-point favorites against Arizona. It really wasn’t a surprise to see the Jets go down in Buffalo though. Look past the 27-17 final in that one as the Jets were down 21-0 early in the second quarter and 27-10 before a late 86-yard drive was capped by a meaningless touchdown. Prior to that drive, the Jets had been outgained 404-168. QB Sam Darnold didn’t look very good at all and he lost RB Le’Veon Bell to injury. Coming off a loss, expect last year’s NFC Champs to take advantage. In the last 10 years, playoff teams that lost their season opener have bounced back to go 18-9 ATS in Week 2. The 49ers are 13-7 ATS L20 as road favorites. Furthermore, the old notion of West Coast teams struggling in 1 PM ET kicks appears to be a thing of the past. West Coast teams have won 13 of their last 16 such games while going 11-4-1 ATS. The Jets may be the worst team in the AFC. Lay the points. Play on SAN FRANCISCO

AAA

This is an 8* on NY GIANTS

The Giants lost on Monday Night Football, but actually played the Steelers pretty tough. Had it not been for a 19-play drive ending in a Daniel Jones interception early in the third quarter, the G-men would have likely covered the spread. As for Chicago, well, they pulled a rabbit out of the hat with a 27-23 comeback in Detroit. After looking terrible for three quarters, QB Mitchell Trubisky came alive with three 4th quarter TD passes. If you’re wondering how such a transformation could take place, look no further than the fact the Lions were down their three top cornerbacks. The Bears defense, usually reliable, gave up 426 yards. Really, it was a game that the Bears had no business winning. Adrian Peterson averaged 6.6 yards per carry against them, which is shocking, so look for Giants RB Saquon Barkley to bounce back from his poor effort against the Steelers. Chicago laying so many points is definitely an “eye-opener” as they are just 1-6 ATS the last 7 times as a favorite including 0-3 their L3. The Giants are 10-3 ATS as a road underdog the L3 seasons. Play on NY GIANTS

AAA

This is a 9* on GREEN BAY

Aaron Rodgers has to be licking his chops here. The Lions are down three defensive starters including both cornerbacks. It was those injuries at CB that allowed for Chicago to stun them last week with a trio of fourth quarter touchdowns. Injuries aren’t limited to the defense either. The Lions will be without WR Kenny Golladay and LG Joe Dahl as well. This is a team that just blew a 17-point 4th quarter lead, has lost 10 straight going back to last season and has multiple key injuries on both sides of the ball. Now they face one of the best QBs in the league, on the road. The Packers put up 43 points and 500+ yards at Minnesota last week. Since the beginning of last season, Detroit is 1-10 ATS off a loss. They are 0-5 ATS the last four games, four of which they were underdogs in. Somehow the Lions have covered six straight times against the Pack, but that streak comes to an end Sunday as Matt Patricia’s team is in no position to compete right now. Play on GREEN BAY

AAA

This is a 10* on CINCY

For the 16th consecutive season, Cleveland is winless entering Week 2. Now there’s no shame in losing Baltimore as the Browns did last week. But opening your season with a 38-6 loss is never good. QB Mayfield is on his third head coach in as many seasons and didn’t look any better, completing just 21 of 39 passes for 189 yards. He threw an INT on the very first drive. The offseason being what it was, teams with new head coaches and lots of personnel turnover are at a disadvantage. Cleveland fits that bill. Now after facing perhaps the best team in the league last week, the Browns now get to face the team that had the worst record in the league last year. But Cincinnati was at least competitive in its Week 1 loss to the Chargers. In fact, they had a chance to win at the end. Joe Burrow, the league’s top draft choice, threw two costly interceptions for the Bengals. Yet they still led most of the game. Cincy beat Cleveland in Week 17 last year, with a different QB obviously. With Burrow and a healthy AJ Green, the Bengals are going to be a much tougher “out” in 2020. They are 8-3 ATS L11 times as a road underdog. Cleveland is untrustworthy in the role of favorite. They lost outright five times as chalk last year including to the Bengals. Take the points Thursday night. Play on CINCINNATI

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Lots of line movement here as Tennessee has been bet to the role of favorite after opening as a 2-point dog. The total, which is what we’re playing, has also been on the move. It’s down to pretty low 40.5 as of press time, which would be the second lowest O/U on the board for NFL Week 1 (only Jets-Bills lower). Injuries have also become a factor in handicapping this nightcap of the Monday Night Football doubleheader. The Titans are going to be without three defensive starters: Adoree Jackson, Vic Beasley and Derrick Roberson. The Broncos have one major absence on the defensive side of the ball themselves, that being Von Miller, who has suffered a serious ankle injury. All those missing defensive players have us taking the Over here. Denver’s offense is going to be a lot better this year. The front office went out and made sure to surround QB Drew Lock with plenty of skill position talent. Let’s not forget Tennessee made the AFC Title Game in January on the back of RB Derrick Henry, who was the NFL’s rushing leader. They scored 20 or more points in their final 10 games last year. The Over is 4-0 the Titans L4 MNF appearances and 6-1 the L7 times they have been a favorite. The Over is also 8-2 Denver’s L10 season openers. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on DALLAS (MONEY LINE) - only needs to win straight up

For a team that finished 8-8, the Cowboys were pretty impressive last season. They had the league’s top ranked offense and +113 point differential. That they couldn’t even make the playoffs was an indictment on their coaching and ability to win close games. The coaching issue was rectified by replacing Jason Garrett with Mike McCarthy. A team’s record in close games can vary wildly. Just look at Dallas each of the last two years. In 2018, they were 10-4 SU in games decided by eight points or less. Last year, that record fell to 1-6! The core of that top-ranked offense is not only back, but additional pieces were added. QB Prescott should have a big season. As for the Rams, they are 1-8-1 ATS L10 as a home dog. The myth of the home dog in primetime has largely been debunked anyway. The Rams fell to 9-7 in 2019, a decline of four wins from the previous year. Despite having a better record than Dallas, their point differential was only +30. Unlike the Cowboys, the Rams roster looks a lot weaker this year and another decline in wins is likely. Look for Dallas to win going away. Play on DALLAS

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

This is probably the most anticipated game of the weekend as Tom Brady and the new look Bucs head into New Orleans to take on the always tough Saints. It’s the first time Brady will be an underdog in his last 75 regular season starts. Brady has been outstanding as an underdog (37-16-1 ATS) In his career and will obviously be motivated. He has much better weapons at his disposal here in Tampa than he did last year in New England. The Saints are the Saints. They are always going to score plenty. While the Bucs defense was actually underrated in terms of yards and stopping the run last year, the Over still went 12-4 in their games. In his last two home games vs. Tampa Bay, Drew Brees has completed over 80% of his passes with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. Over is 4-1 L5 meetings including 2-0 last year. Over is 6-0 in the Saints past six season openers. Over is 10-1 TB’s L11 conference games and 5-0 L5 times as a road underdog. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on PHI

Washington is a team without a nickname and also without much direction. The front office, as always, is a mess. Ron Rivera has been chosen to lead this sinking ship and it's probably going to take a while until “Riverboat Ron '' gets this one floating again. Second year QB Dwayne Haskins did not have a particularly good rookie season. The Football Team won just three games in 2019, none of them against the division. In fact, they are 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS the past six meetings with the Eagles. The Washington defense allowed points on more than 60% of the possessions it faced last year. There will be no home field edge here as no fans will be present. As we heard in the Thursday night game, even a reduced capacity can be noisy. It’s not just Philly that Washington struggles against. They have lost their last 10 NFC East games, covering the number just one time. No clue why this number has been bet down (as of Saturday). The Eagles own Washington and that figures to be the case again here. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is an 8* on KANSAS CITY

This is a rematch from the Divisional Round of the playoffs. That game started great for the Texans. They were up 24-0 early in the second quarter. But from that point forward, the Chiefs outscored them 51-7 and went on to win the franchise’s 2nd Super Bowl.  As the defending Super Bowl Champion, the Chiefs open the season at home on Thursday night. Save for last year, this has been the practice going back to 2004. The SB Champ has lost only two of the 15 times it has played on Opening Night. One of the losses was a weak Giants team (game was actually played on Weds due to Democratic National Convention). The other was three years ago when the Patriots lost … to the Chiefs. Not even spotting the Texans 24 points could prevent the Chiefs from winning by double digits in January. Houston figures to be weaker in 2020 as they lost Pro Bowl wideout DeShaun Watson, not to mention they were an extremely lucky 10-win team a year ago. They led at halftime in only six of their games and just two of their wins were by more than eight points. They went 5-1 SU in games decided by a field goal or less. Kansas City has covered its last eight games and should have its way with a weaker version of a team they beat by 17 points in the playoffs. Play on KANSAS CITY

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Both Super Bowl participants have seen their defenses get the job done over multi-game stretches. San Francisco’s defense didn’t allow more than 20 points in any of its first seven games. Then came a rash of injuries, which in turn saw them allow more points per game over the second half of the season. But they got healthy again just in time for the playoffs - and just like we saw over those first seven games - they have been an elite group. They held the Vikings and Packers to just 30 points, pitching a shutout for a half in each game. They’d allowed just 10 points through six quarters before Green Bay put some “garbage time” points up. The 49ers rank second in yards allowed and are a top 10 scoring defense. But surprisingly, the Chiefs are also a top 10 scoring defense and allow just 18.0 points in road games. They held Tennessee and Houston to basically nothing after the first quarter of each playoff game. In the final six regular season games, the Chiefs held every opponent to 21 points or less. Play UNDER 49ers-Chiefs

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Green Bay’s offense did next to nothing when it faced the San Francisco defense in the regular season. They were held to eight points, a pathetic 81 yards passing and just 2.8 yards per play. They’re bound to do better this time, but will the 49ers score 37 points again? Not likely. Since taking it on the chin from the 49ers, the Pack are an undefeated 6-0 and allowing just 15.7 points/game. San Francisco is giving up only 18.8 points/game (5th), GB isn’t far behind as it gives up just 19.8 points/game (9th). The Under is 5-1 the last six times GB has been an underdog. As it turns out, the regular season matchup between these two teams did stay Under a near identical total. The Packers were only three-point underdogs for that game. Including last week’s 27-10 win over Minnesota, the Under is 4-0 the 49ers past four playoff games. The Packers, as we predicted they would, went Over last week. But that was against a bad Seattle defense. Play UNDER Green Bay-San Francisco

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This is a 10* on TENNESSEE

Tennessee will seek to become the first 9-7 team to make the Super Bowl since the Giants in 2011. So far they have knocked off the Patriots and Ravens, both on the road. That’s the defending Super Bowl Champs and the team that finished with the best record in the league this year. Considering how well the Titans have played since Ryan Tannehill took over as the starting QB (gone 9-3), we just don’t think they should be getting this many points. We were dead wrong to go against them last week in Baltimore. A key edge for Tennessee against Kansas City is the running game with Derrick Henry. Henry has already run for 377 yards in two playoff games. He ran for 188 more in Week 10 over the Chiefs. In three career games vs. Kansas City, all of them wins, Henry has run well. The Chiefs defense has consistently been bad against the run this year as it ranks 26th in yards per game and 29th in yards per rush attempt allowed. Tennessee is 4-0 SU/ATS the L4 meetings vs. Kansas City including a playoff upset here at Arrowhead back in 2017. The Chiefs were able to storm back from a 24-0 deficit last week against Houston and score 51 points. But the Titans are much stronger defensively than the Texans are. Baltimore and New England combined for just 25 points against them. For the year, they give up just 19.8 points/game and were even better than that on the road. Not saying the Titans win outright, but they’ll cover the spread. Play on TENNESSEE

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Seattle got here by beating Philadelphia 17-9 in the Wild Card Round. As per usual, the Seahawks hardly looked impressive in achieving victory. They won by beating a 40-year old backup (Josh McCown) that was called into emergency duty when Carson Wentz was knocked out by a dirty hit from Jadeveon Clowney. Nevertheless, the Seahawks offense did gain an impressive 6.7 yards per play last week. Say what you will about Seattle's resume, but Green Bay has rode the same good fortune to get here, typically winning "ugly" and close. The Packers defense did play well down the stretch, but is unlikely to hold the Seahawks to 17 points this week. Over the final five regular season games, Green Bay faced four of the worst quarterbacks in the league (Jones, Haskins, Trubisky and Blough). So that's why you saw the defensive numbers improve. By the same token, Seattle goes from facing a 40-year old that had zero time to prepare to a rested Aaron Rodgers. By the numbers, this wasn't your normal Rogers-esque season. But the Packers offense did average 6.4 YPP at home and is going against a defense that allows 6.2 YPP on the road. Worth mentioning that the Over is 10-1 in Seattle's last 11 games as a playoff underdog. The Over is also 5-1 in Green Bay's last six playoff games. Play OVER Seattle-Green Bay

AAA

This is a 10* Play on BALTIMORE

Tennessee shocked a lot of people, including us, when they went into Foxboro last Saturday and upset New England. The 20-13 win saw them pass for only 71 yards, but run for 200+. They were slightly outgained and got a defensive TD in the final minute (went for 2 pt conversion and missed it) to put the game away. The Titans are now 8-3 SU since Ryan Tannehill became the starter but will need a lot more from him and the rest of the offense this week as they face a far greater challenge in Baltimore. Unlike the Patriots, the Ravens do not struggle to score. Led by likely MVP Lamar Jackson, they led the league in scoring at 33.2 points/game. The Ravens have not lost since Week 4 (to Cleveland!) and eight of those 12 victories have come by at least two touchdowns. Furthermore, the defense has given up over 20 points just two times in the 12-game win streak. We just can't see the Titans offense scoring enough, or the defense limiting the Ravens enough, to stay inside the spread Saturday. Tennessee had to win its last regular season game just to get into the playoffs. They are 4-11 ATS the last three years when coming off consecutive wins. The franchise is just 2-7 ATS its last nine chances in the Divisional Round and 6-seeds have really struggled in this round, going 5-19 SU all-time with eight straight losses. Play on BALTIMORE

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

This is a late add to our Saturday NFL Playoff card as we’ve been monitoring the total all week and like where the number is now. Going into Foxboro and winning a playoff game is definitely impressive. But the Titans didn’t do much offensively. Ryan Tannehill passed for only 71 yards, a number which isn’t going to win you many games. The running game was much more successful (201 yards), but gaining that kind of yardage against the Ravens is just not likely. Baltimore’s opponents gained an average of just 93 yards/game on the ground in the regular season, doing so at only 4.3 yards/carry. Remember the Titans had only 14 points last week before a late INT return for a TD. If Tennessee is to have any chance in this game, it will be because of a defense that allows 17.2 points/game on the road. They won’t hold the Ravens that low, but combined we don’t see both teams exceeding the number here. The Under is 6-1 in Tennessee’s last seven playoff games and a perfect 6-0 the Ravens last six playoff home games. Play UNDER Tennessee-Baltimore

AAA

This is an 8* on MINNESOTA

It seems like the Vikings win over the Saints on Wild Card Weekend caught a lot of people by surprise. They did it with defense. Aside from the gimmickery of Taysom Hill, who threw a 50-yard pass and ran for another 50, New Orleans was held to just 224 yards and they got three points off an early Minnesota fumble. A similar defensive effort will be needed this week against the top seeded 49ers, who are rested coming off their bye. San Francisco was the best team in the NFC during the regular season. But if you look at their defensive numbers down the stretch, cracks did begin to show. Over the first seven games, SF never allowed more than 20 points and gave up an average of just 11 points/game (started 7-0). Ever since, they've allowed 20+ in eight of nine games and an average of 25.8 points/game. They've also lost three times. While some of the 49ers players have postseason experience, many don't and this is their first playoff game together as a group. We think it's pretty clear Minnesota is still being undervalued despite last week's win, which was the first time ever under Mike Zimmer they'd been getting seven or more points in a game.  Say what you will about QB Kirk Cousins, but he played well last week. Play on MINNESOTA 

AAA

This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA

Due to injuries and an inferior record, the Eagles seem to be getting written off here. That's a mistake. They still have the home field advantage and that's big. Seattle did well for itself on the road this year, but has not done well in the playoffs when having to leave the Pacific Northwest. Eight of the franchise's last 10 playoff road games have ended in defeat and one of those wins was the infamous game in Minnesota where Vikings kicker Blair Walsh missed a chip shot field goal. Home underdogs are pretty rare in the NFL Playoffs and we haven't seen one in the Wild Card Round since 2015. But the Eagles are 5-0 STRAIGHT UP all-time in the postseason as a home dog and four of those wins have been by at least 13 points. Under Doug Pederson, they are 8-4 ATS getting points (regular season or playoffs) including 5-0 in the playoffs where they've won four of the five on the field. Since 1990, there have been eight instances of a team with a 9-7 or worse record hosting a team with at least 11 wins. The home team has gone 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 against the spread in those games. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

The 13-3 Saints host the 10-6 Vikings on Wild Card Weekend. Because of Drew Brees, New Orleans will always be known for their offense. But it has been a much improved defense that has helped guide them to back to back 13-win seasons. The Saints gave up an average of just 21.3 points/game this season. They'll need that defense to show up on Sunday because the Vikings actually allowed a fewer number of points per contest, coming in at 18.9. There are some incredible trends supporting the Under in this one. For starters, Minnesota has gone Under in its last five Wild Card games. They've also gone Under 15 of the past 22 times they've been an underdog. But the most eye-opening trend of all is that the last seven NFL Wild Card games with a spread of seven points or more have all stayed Under! We certainly don't expect Vikings QB Kirk Cousins to play well in this spot. So don't go expecting many points from the underdog. At the same time, Minnesota's defense can keep them in the game. Look for the defenses to rule the day and this one to go Under. Play UNDER Minnesota-New Orleans

AAA

This is a 10* on NEW ENGLAND

New England comes into these playoffs with the longest Super Bowl odds (20/1) that they've ever had during the Belichick/Brady regime. While it's true that the offense has not flashed the form we're accustomed to seeing, it's hard to pass up the opportunity to lay such a small number with the Patriots in Foxboro against Ryan Tannehill. The Pats still have the best defense in football even after laying an egg against Miami in Week 17. They gave up only 14.1 points/game and 275.7 yards/game. Both were league bests. They are also "money" as a home favorite of this season. The last three seasons have seen NE go 10-1 SU and 7-3-1 ATS when laying anywhere from -3.5 to -7 in Foxboro. If you go all the way back to 2001, Brady's first year as a starting QB, the team is 72-17 straight up and 61-24-4 ATS (71.8%!) laying seven points or less at home. We know Ryan Tannehill had a career year and made the Titans offense better. But he's still Ryan Tannehill and we're not about to bet that he can beat Tom Brady in the playoffs. Lay it! Play on NEW ENGLAND

AAA

This is an 8* on HOUSTON

This was probably the best possible Wild Card matchup for the Texans. They are facing an inexperienced QB and an offense that averaged just 19.6 points/game in the regular season. While Houston's defense nosedived in the second half of the season, that was directly tied to the loss of superstar JJ Watt. Watt is now back on the active roster and will play Saturday. So will QB DeShaun Watson after he sat out a meaningless final regular season game. Houston is simply more talented than Buffalo and is laying a short number at home. The Bills defensive numbers may look great, but realize they beat only one playoff team and that with the Titans before they made the QB switch from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill. That was also Week 5! The Bills offense has not scored more than 17 points in any of its last four games. They were held under 20 points in more than half their games. That simply won't get it done this time of year. Five starts against playoff teams this year yielded only a 51.6% completion percentage and 5.5 yards per attempt for Buffalo QB Josh Allen. The Bills averaged just 14 points in those games. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 10* on SAN FRANCISCO

The final Sunday night game of the NFL's regular season will decide who wins the NFC West and who will have home field advantage for the playoffs on the NFC side. If you ask us, San Francisco deserves both accolades. They have not only a much better point differential than Seattle; they have been the best team in the NFC all year. The 12-3 49ers have outscored opponents by 164 points. The 11-4 Seahawks have outscored their opponent by only 12 points. The key to Seattle's season has been a 10-1 record in games decided by eight points or fewer. The most critical of those wins came Week 10 in San Francisco, 27-24 in overtime. That has them in position to win the division because of head to head tiebreaker. But they have to win this game. We don't see that happening. The Seahawks have lost two of their last three games. Both losses were bad and against NFC West teams. They lost by two touchdowns last week to Arizona at home. Injuries have hit both of these teams hard late in the season, but Seattle's RB group is so decimated that they were forced to sign Marshawn Lynch! Niners TE George Kittle did not play the first time these teams met. Seattle's defense actually gives up 29.0 points/game at home. Play on SAN FRANCISCO 

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

You probably don't need us to tell you that the Over is almost always a more popular bet than the Under. This goes for any sport, but especially football. Every week, in virtually every NFL game, there are more bettors taking the Over as opposed to the Under. But this Pittsburgh-Baltimore game is an extreme example of the opposite taking place. We're not sure if we've ever seen a game where the public was so excited to play the Under. Baltimore, who will be the #1 seed in the AFC and has nothing to play for, is resting its starters. Robert Griffin III will start at quarterback in place of Lamar Jackson. Pittsburgh's last seven games have all gone Under, none of them seeing more than 40 points scored. Five have seen less than 30. But if you're not expecting effort in this game, well you're wrong. The Steelers have a chance to make the playoffs and John Harbaugh's approach to preseason games tells us he'll be coaching to win here as well. Play OVER Pittsburgh-Baltimore

AAA

This is a 10* on MINNESOTA

Barring the Packers losing both this week and next week, the Vikings are going to be a Wild Card team in the NFC. Seeing as Green Bay plays at Detroit next week (Lions have lost eight in a row), it's highly unlikely that they lose out. But Minnesota can accomplish half the task at hand simply by winning tonight as they host the Packers. Green Bay hasn't won in this stadium since it opened and despite their 11-3 record this season, there's a lot of reason to be suspicious of this team. Only four of their 11 wins have been by more than one score. Statistically, they rank in the bottom half of the league in rushing offense, passing offense, rushing defense and passing defense. The Vikings are 6-0 at home, winning those games by an average of nearly two touchdowns per game. It's not just Minnesota where GB has struggled either. They are 0-5 SU and ATS their last five dome games. The Vikings offense is averaging 29.4 points its last 10 games despite receiver Adam Thielen missing much of that time. So don't expect them to skip a beat with RB Cook sitting this week. The Vikings did lose at Lambeau Field back in Week 2, 21-16, but actually dominated that game statistically. This is their chance at revenge. Play on MINNESOTA

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

We know that Kansas City is capable of putting up a lot of points. Chicago not as much, but the Bears offense has at least been better of late. They still put up over 400 yards in a 21-13 loss to Green Bay Sunday. Mitchell Trubisky threw for over 300 yards for the second time in three games. The offense is now averaging nearly six yards per play those last three weeks. It's not like the Chiefs defense is very good. Disregard last week's performance as it was in the snow against a rookie quarterback. The Chiefs still give up 357.8 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play for the season. Recently, they have faced some struggling offenses. Patrick Mahomes had no issues with the snow last week. He threw for 340 yards. There were a lot of long drives that ended with field goals in that Denver-KC game. The road still sees KC averaging over 30 points/game. This number is just too low not to try the Over. Four straight KC games have gone Under, which is rare. Play OVER Kansas City-Chicago

AAA

This is an 8* on DETROIT

Detroit has definitely fallen on hard times. Seven straight losses (NFL's longest losing streak) amidst a myriad of injuries is tough. The team has actually lost 10 of its last 11 games since a 2-0-1 start. While we would be slightly surprised if the Lions were to win this week, we're also not about to lay a touchdown with a Denver team starting a rookie QB that is 5-9 and just lost 23-3. While the Broncos did win Drew Lock's first two starts, they did not look good last week. Yes, that was against the Chiefs. But here's the issue. This team is not accustomed to laying points. They've been an underdog eight straight weeks. They've been favored in only three games all year. Two of those three times resulted in losses. Not just ATS losses, but SU losses. Half of the Broncos games this year have been decided by seven points or fewer. Five of the seven that weren't were losses. So that's just two wins by more than a touchdown all year. We realize Detroit is struggling. But they can stay close here as they're facing a team that doesn't often blow teams out. The Broncos are 5-13 ATS the last 18 times they've been favored. Play on DETROIT

AAA

This is a 10* on CLEVELAND

Even for Baltimore, this is too many points to lay to a Cleveland team that has been favored each of its last seven games. Now the Browns haven't done all that well as chalk - at least when they were the road team. Last week they lost at Arizona, their fifth straight road loss. But they've won four straight games here at home. They've also already beaten Baltimore this year - on the road. That was the Ravens last loss - it was all the way back in Week 4 - and probably the Browns best played game of the year. It was 40-25 game where the Browns were a seven-point road dogs. Now they are 10-point home dogs. Not saying there shouldn't be some shifting by the oddsmakers for this rematch. After all, the Ravens are playing for homefield advantage in the playoffs while the Browns postseason hopes are on life support. But unless Cleveland is prepared to quit on coach Freddie Kitchens - and we don't think that's the case - this is too many points for the Browns to be getting at home. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is a 10* on LA RAMS

You have to feel a bit for the Rams. They've got the same exact point differential as Seattle (+26) yet are three games back in the NFC West, even though they split two games with the Seahawks. Things appeared to be trending up in LA after they beat Seattle 28-12 two weeks ago, on a Sunday night. But then came last week's result. In what was our 10* NFL Game of the Year, Dallas destroyed the Rams 44-21, all but ending the Rams hopes of making the playoffs. In taking the Cowboys, even we did not think it would be that easy as it would end up being. Two of the Rams touchdowns came in the final three minutes when the game was out of reach. But San Francisco lost last week too and that was far more surprising. The 49ers were at home and double digit favorites against a bad Atlanta team. This was the Niners third loss in the last six weeks after an 8-0 start. Seven starters missed last week's game due to injuries. CB's Sherman and Williams are both set to return this week, but we don't like the Niners laying this many points to a desperate Rams team. This is the first time since Week 4 of the 2017 season that a Rams team not resting starters has gotten at least six points. They won that last time outright. Play on LA RAMS

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

A critical game for both teams, though that's for different reasons. The Saints are still in play for the NFC's top seed. They are tied with the 49ers, Seahawks and Packers, all of whom also have just three losses. The Colts have lost three in a row, blowing leads in every game, to fall to 6-7 and see their own playoff chances go on life support. The fact that Indy has only been beaten once by more than one score means we won't be laying points Monday night. But the Over is something we can get behind after the way both of these defenses played last week. The Colts gave up over 500 yards in a 38-35 loss to the Bucs, almost all of it coming through the air. That's good news for the Saints' Drew Brees, who threw for 349 in a losing effort last week. The reason New Orleans lost last week was because their defense was torched for 8.2 yards per play by the 49ers. That was right here at home too. Over the last seven weeks, the Saints have scored at least 31 points every game except when facing the Falcons (familiar opponent). The Colts have allowed 69 points the last two games. Play OVER Colts-Saints

AAA

This is a 10* on DALLAS

The Cowboys have nosedived, losing three in a row for the second time this season. If they were in any other division, their playoff chances might be toast. But the NFC East is a different story. Dallas is still tied with Philadelphia atop the division despite both teams being just 6-7. Next week's game in Philly is likely to determine who makes the playoffs. But more pressing for the 'Boys is this week's home game vs. the Rams. Unlike their opponents, LA comes in with plenty of confidence. They just thwarted the Seahawks 28-12 on Sunday Night Football. But we're still willing to back the Cowboys in this one. The lookahead line had them laying four points. As a result of not only their loss last Thursday (to the Bears), but what the Rams did to Seattle, the line has moved considerably. A couple weeks ago, Dallas not being favored here would have been considered crazy. This is a team that's been an underdog just one time all season and that was at New England where they covered the spread. Remember it was only a few weeks ago when the Rams looked to have more questions than answers as they'd been held to just 35 points over a three-game stretch, which included a humiliating 45-6 home loss at the hands of Baltimore. The Cowboys probably played their worst game of the season last week in Chicago. They've had extra time to prepare here and were 2-0 ATS as a home dog last year, winning both games outright. They are healthy and lead the league in total offense. This is a classic "buy low" situation. Play on DALLAS

AAA

This is a 10* on TENNESSEE

Tennessee and Houston will play twice over the next three weeks and those two games figure to decide who wins the AFC South. The Titans have come back from the dead, led by Ryan Tannehill, to win six of their last seven games. Both teams are 8-5 on the year. Houston is off a very ugly loss to Denver last week, leaving real questions about where it stands right now. Though we're talking same records, the Titans have a much better point differential. They are +63 while the Texans are only +8. Which do you think is more indicative of a division winner? This first meeting is in Tennessee where the Titans have won four in a row. In Tannehill's seven starts, the Titans offense ranks #2 in the league in scoring. They have scored 31 or more points four straight games. Houston hasn't scored more than 31 points in its last seven games. The Titans have the better defense as well, which is even more true now that J.J. Watt is out for the Texans. Houston has failed to cover eight of the last nine times it has faced a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Play on TENNESSEE

AAA

This is an 10* on BALTIMORE

After a couple of close calls with San Francisco and Buffalo, the Ravens should have little difficulty blowing past the Jets Thursday night. We say that knowing full well that QB Lamar Jackson has been bothered by a hamstring injury this week. But the MVP candidate still has more than enough support to get him through this game, against one of the league's worst teams. The Jets could barely get by the Dolphins last week. That's a team Baltimore defeated in Week 1 by a score of 59-10. It's been nine straight wins for the Ravens, five of those coming by 14 points or more. New York simply does not have the capability to hang with the league's highest scoring team. Yes, the Jets have had some big offensive games this year, but those were all against bad teams. This is a team that lost by 16 points to a winless Cincinnati team the last time it was on the road. They are 0-7 straight up and 2-5 against the spread as an underdog of 10 or more points. The Ravens are 1st in scoring and 2nd in total offense. The Jets are 29th and 31st. Total mismatch. Play on BALTIMORE

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

Eli Manning will be starting for the Giants this evening. Not by choice, but rather due to the fact his replacement (Daniel Jones) is injured. You may recall things were not looking so good for Eli at the start of the season. In two games, both losses, he posted a QBR of 38.4. The Giants offense scored just 31 points. Things haven't been looking good for the Giants for some time now. They did win Jones' first two starts, but have dropped eight in a row since. During that losing streak, they've been held to 18 points or less five times. To think Manning will come in and right the ship seems outlandish. The Eagles also have issues. Last week saw them suffer an embarrassing 37-31 loss to Miami. Not sure where that (lack of) defensive effort came from. The previous four games all saw the Eagles defense give up no more than 17 points. At the same time, we don't trust what the Eagles did on offense in that game either. The previous three weeks saw them score a total of 41 points. Three times in the last six games, they scored 10 points or less. Philadelphia obviously needs this game more as somehow they've remained in playoff contention. But don't look for them to put up many points either. Same with the Giants. Play UNDER Giants-Eagles

AAA

This is an 8* on PITTSBURGH

Because they are down to their third string quarterback, who is a rookie that came from a FCS school, the Steelers are not being taken all that seriously as playoff contenders. But compared to most teams, they are better suited to still make a run. They shouldn't have much trouble beating the 3-8-1 Cardinals this week. Pittsburgh's success starts with a defense that is allowing just 18.8 points/game. Only five teams allow fewer. Only four allow fewer than the 317.2 yards/game allowed. Now compare that to Arizona, who is last in the league at 426.3 yards/game allowed. Miami is the only team that has allowed more points.  Devlin "Duck" Hodges won the Walter Payton Award last year at Samford. That award is given out annually to the top offensive player in the FCS. Moving forward, Hodges is a better option than Mason Rudolph for Mike Tomlin.  The Cardinals have just three wins and they are by a combined 10 points. The last one came on October 20th. They aren't going to beat the Steelers. Play on PITTSBURGH

AAA

This is an 8* play on OVER

We also like this game to go Over the total. That may sound surprising given all that is true about this Steelers defense. But remember what we said about Arizona's defense. The Cardinals are last in the league at 426.3 yards/game allowed. Miami is the only team that has allowed more points. The 2-10 Giants are the only opponent that failed to reach 23 points on them. Five of the last six games have seen the Cards give up at least 30.  If Pittsburgh is able to get to 30, then we're looking at a pretty easy Over here. Arizona's offense was pathetic in a 34-7 loss to the Rams last week, but had averaged 26 points over its three previous games. They can score between 14 and 20 here, right?  The Under has hit in every Steelers road game so far (five of them). But three of those came against teams that have top four defenses (in yards allowed). Another was against the 31st ranked scoring offense (Cincinnati). Finally, the last one that needs accounted for was on a short week (Thursday night loss to the Browns). Weather won't be a factor this week either. Play OVER Pittsburgh-Arizona

AAA

analysis soon

This is a 10* on SAN FRANCISCO

It doesn't happen often, but both teams are 10-2. This is only the fifth such matchup in the last 35 seasons and the first since 2005. San Francisco lost a tough one last week to Baltimore to drop to 10-2. New Orleans won on Thanksgiving, though they didn't make it easy on themselves when they allowed Atlanta to recover two onside kicks. While the records may be the same, other numbers say the 49ers have been the more dominant team. Their point differential is +166, best in the NFC. The Saints point differential is only +50. The Niners outgained the Ravens 6.4 to 4.6 yards per play, which is substantial. The Saints were outgained by the Falcons, had half as many first downs, but managed to force four turnovers. The 49ers defense, which is #1 against the pass, does far better when not facing a mobile QB like Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson or Lamar Jackson. Against all other offenses, they have allowed 221.1 yards (total) and 10.6 points/game. Look for them to have success pressuring Drew Brees, who is not mobile. The better team is getting points and that's a combination we like. After falling from the #1 seed in the NFC because of last week's loss, a win here would put San Francisco right back in the driver's seat. Play on SAN FRANCISCO

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

The Browns saw their playoff hopes take a major hit with last week's loss to the Steelers. This game with the Bengals no longer looks like a cakewalk as for the first time all season, Cincinnati is off a win. At least the game is at home where the Browns have won three in a row. This offense is having all sorts of problems but did score 41 two weeks ago here vs. Miami. Browns home games are seeing a total of 46.2 points/game scored this year. That's up from 40.2 on the road. With Andy Dalton back as the starting quarterback for the Bengals, they are a far greater threat to put some points on the board. We saw this last week when they put up 22 on the Jets, ending what had been a 13-game losing streak dating back to last season. That may not sound like much, but it was the most points put up by Cincy since a Week 5 loss to Arizona, a game which Dalton also started. Going with Ryan Finley was not a terrible idea by a first year coach, but it was painfully obvious Finley wasn't very good. Dalton makes this a better offense as he's auditioning for a job (probably somewhere else) next year. The Under is 6-0 in Bengals road games, but this game puts an end to that streak. Play OVER Cincinnati-Cleveland 

AAA

This is a 10* on CHICAGO

The Bears, like the Cowboys, are 6-6. But they won on Thanksgiving. It was against a 3rd string QB mind you and by only four points, but a win is a win in this league. Dallas lost to Buffalo 26-15, which was their third setback in the last four games. They've lost six of the last nine games.  We just aren't of the mindset to be laying points with this Dallas team on the road right now. Just to illustrate how overvalued this team has been, they've been favored in all but one game this year. They have six losses.  This is the third straight week that the Cowboys are facing a top five scoring defense. Against New England and Buffalo, they managed just 9 and 15 points. The Bears have not allowed more than 22 points in any of their last six games. Chicago has only covered one of its last eight games, but what you may be surprised to learn is that this is only the third time they will be an underdog. Like Dallas, they've been an overvalued team much of the year. Not anymore. Trubisky has actually played better of late. He's thrown for 979 yards the last four games including a season-high 338 on Thanksgiving. Play on CHICAGO

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Both teams are 6-6 and coming off Thanksgiving Day games. Chicago won on Turkey Day, 24-20 over Detroit, while Dallas lost 26-15 to Buffalo. The Cowboys have lost three of their last four games and six of the last nine.  This is the third straight week the Cowboys are facing a top five scoring defense. Against New England and Buffalo, they managed just 9 and 15 points. The Bears have not allowed more than 22 points in any of their last six games. However, despite some of the recent struggles, Dallas still has the league's #1 ranked offense. We believe they'll find more success here against the Bears than they did vs. Buffalo or New England. The Bears defense has gotten to face some pretty weak opposing quarterbacks of late, third stringer David Blough being the most recent example. Dak Prescott is the NFL's leading passer. Speaking of quarterbacks, Mitchell Trubisky has actually played better of late. He's thrown for 979 yards the last four games including a season-high 338 on Thanksgiving. This total is just too low. Even if the final score is 24-21, the game goes Over. This could end up being the lowest total for any Dallas game this season. Play OVER Dallas-Chicago

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The Vikings come into this game at 8-3. The Seahawks are 9-2. It should be a good one at Century Link Field on Monday with two of the NFC's best teams looking to improve their respective playoff positioning. Minnesota is off a bye, which seems helpful. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has had his fair share of struggles on Monday Night Football (0-7 SU and ATS!), but he comes into tonight's game with the highest passer rating in the NFL. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is #2.  Both teams come in averaging roughly the same number of points per game. Minnesota is at 26.3 while Seattle is at 26.5. The Vikings defense allows about six points/game fewer.  The Vikings have scored at least 23 points in seven of the last eight games. There have been only three games this season where they failed to score 23 points. Five of the last six have gone Over including three straight. The Seahawks are coming off a low-scoring win over Philadelphia (17-9), but before that had scored at least 27 points in eight of nine games.  Really surprising is that Seattle allows 29.2 points/game at home. The Vikings defense has allowed an average of 6.2 yards/play the last three games, which isn't good. Play OVER Minnesota-Seattle

AAA

This is an 8* play on OVER

The Patriots have held every opponent but one to 14 points or less. That one exception was Baltimore, who hung 37. That's New England's only loss. Tonight, they face another dynamic, playmaking QB in DeShaun Watson. While the Patriots may very well win this game, expect them to give up more points than they usually do. The Texans are 7-4 and lead the AFC South by one game over Indianapolis and Tennessee. With those two teams playing each other this week, a loss here by Houston would guarantee a first place tie in the division. So this is a really important game for the Texans. Unfortunately, they've managed to beat the Patriots only one time in franchise history. Eight of the 11 all-time meetings have gone Over with New England scoring at least 27 in the last 10.  Houston has scored at least 20 points in every game but three. Two of those three came in the first four weeks. The other was vs. Baltimore. While they've gone Under in four straight, the only time the defense was really tested, they gave up 41 points. Much is being made of New England's recent offensive struggles. Even Tom Brady has been pretty vocal about it. But we expect a big game from Brady tonight. Houston's defense has allowed over 500 yards rushing in the three games since JJ Watt got hurt. Keep an eye on receiver N'Keal Henry, who caught a TD last week for the Patriots. Play OVER New England-Houston

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This is an 8* on WASHINGTON

We just don't see Carolina winning this game by double digits. Not after last week's tough 34-31 loss to New Orleans, their fourth loss in the past five weeks. Washington actually won last week, so there's at least some positivity for a 2-win team. The Panthers haven't been a double digit favorite in over three years. Believe it or not, they've been asked to lay this many only six previous times in franchise history! The only two times they were favored by more than a field goal this year came in home games against Atlanta and Tampa Bay. They lost both. There are two key injuries Carolina will have to deal with, both of them season enders. The bigger of the two is to DT Dontari Poe, who had been quite the disruptive presence. The other is along the offensive line with Greg Van Roten. The Redskins defense has actually done a somewhat admirable job recently. They've held four of their last six opponents below 20 points and only one scored more than 24. If they can do that again, then this should be an easy cover. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

We'll try this again. Nine straight Tampa Bay games have gone Over. At least this week, they've got an opponent that shouldn't do much in the way of scoring.Jacksonville has lost three straight (all division games) and averaged only 12 points/game in doing so. Since returning, Nick Foles hasn't meant much. Whether it's been Foles or Gardner Minshew II at quarterback, the Jaguars are still averaging less than 20 points/game this year. The Jaguars defense was gashed badly last week by Tennessee. At one point, they allowed four touchdowns in six plays. Now they are dealing with injuries on top of that. It looks bad and Tampa Bay's offense certainly has big play capability. But look for the Jags somehow, someway to be better on defense. Bucs QB Jameis Winston can certainly be a drive-killer with his turnovers. Jacksonville's offense isn't going to do much here and because of that, the game will stay Under. Each of the last three weeks, Tampa's games have not gone Over until the final minute. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Jacksonville

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This is a 10* on CINCINNATI

The Bengals are 0-11 (have lost 13 in a row going back to last year), are turning back to Andy Dalton (seems desperate) and are 0-4 ATS this year when getting less than six points. But we're still going to go with them. That may sound suicidal. But consider what we're fading here. The Jets are road favorites just three weeks removed from a 1-7 start. They have won three in a row, scoring 34 in every game. But they are 0-2 ATS as a favorite this season and lost outright both times. Going back more, they are 1-5 SU and ATS their last six times as a favorite. Cincy hasn't won this year, but they've been close numerous times. Over half their defeats have seen them come within one score.  In terms of trying to get a win, Dalton is probably better than the ineffective Ryan Finley. The coaching staff was right to see what they had in Finley, but it turns out it wasn't much.  Remember that the Jets lost in Miami. Before that, it had been two years since they'd been a road favorite. They lost that time too, 23-0. They have not closed higher than -3 on the road since 2011. Play on CINCINNATI

AAA

This is a 10* on ATLANTA

Everyone will be expecting the Saints to exact revenge for their shocking loss to the Falcons three weeks ago. That game saw New Orleans come in as a 14-point favorite and lose 26-9. The 31-point difference between the spread and the final outcome was one of the largest we’ve seen this NFL season. Winning is one thing, but covering the spread is a different outcome. For the Saints, beating anyone by more than a touchdown has been a problem despite their 9-2 record. A 34-31 escape against Carolina last week was the Saints sixth win this year by seven points or fewer. Atlanta had a great follow up to the win over New Orleans. They beat Carolina 29-3. But then last week, they looked more like the team that started the season 1-7. They lost at home to Tampa 35-22. They still haven’t won a home game since Week 2! Getting back to New Orleans lack of domination, they have a point differential of only +42. That might sound alright, but nine teams are better and not all of them have as many wins. Last week easily could have been a loss, but Carolina missed a chip shot field goal. This spread is just too high. The Falcons had been playing so much better before running into a Bucs team that caught fire for one game. Eventually, a home game will be won. Their pass rush swallowed up Drew Brees in the first game and the Saints offensive line is now weaker due to injuries. Atlanta is capable of beating New Orleans twice. PLAY ON ATLANTA

AAA

This is a 10* on LOS ANGELES

Baltimore is really rolling. A six-game win streak has included victories over Seattle, New England and Houston. Granted, they’ve also inflated their point differential at the expense of some bad teams. But there is no denying the Ravens are the hottest team in the NFL right now. But that distinction can often come with a price. That price is catching attention from the betting public. The public has driven this number up as the Ravens are laying a field goal to the Rams in LA. The Rams haven’t been home dogs in quite awhile. The only time it’s happened under Sean McVay was a meaningless Week 17 game back in 2017. The Rams are 3-0 ATS in primetime this year. They beat Cleveland on the road, covered at Seattle and then last week beat Chicago. West Coast teams, because of the body clock issue, have the edge over Eastern counterparts in night games. Over the last four games, the Rams defense has allowed just 44 points. That’s the fewest points allowed by any team the last four weeks. The run by the defense has coincided with the Jalen Ramsey trade. On offense, they’ll be getting WR Cooks back from injury tonight. Baltimore is due for an off game. Our raw number suggest this line should be a pick ‘em. Play on LOS ANGELES

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This is a 10* on TENNESSEE

This is a revenge game for Tennessee. They lost to Jacksonville in Week 3, on a Thursday night, 20-7. They were actually a small road favorite there as the Jags were 0-2 at the time. Jacksonville has not swept the season series since 2005. The Titans have won the last four home meetings and the home team is on a 12-5 ATS run in this rivalry. We’re not convinced about the long-term viability of Ryan Tannehill as the Titans quarterback, but he is 3-1 as the starter. Jacksonville has now dropped both games Nick Foles has started. They didn’t look good last week in a 33-13 loss to the Colts. Foles is 4-10 ATS as a starter in his career in games not with the Eagles. Jacksonville’s defense ranks 29th vs. the run. Titans running back Henry should have a big game. Play on TENNESSEE

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This is an 8* on CINCINNATI

As long as Cincinnati is winless, you can count on them to try. Though it’s happened twice in the 21st century, no team wants to go winless. The Bengals are 0-10. Half of those losses have been by 7 points or less though.  Pittsburgh is coming off the tumultuous game with Cleveland that ended with that ugly brawl. The Steelers also lost the game 21-7. There were players that took some blows that weren’t from Myles Garrett. Center Pouncey, RB Conner and WR Smith-Schuster will among those watching this one from the sidelines. The Steelers are averaging only 13.5 points/game on the road, making them an ugly favorite here. Cincinnati will stay motivated until they win, but this is a game they REALLY want. They’ve lost nine straight times to the Steelers. They’ve lost 12 games in a row period, but are 6-6 ATS in that time.  The Bengals average 17.5 points at home. That’s more than the Steelers do on the road. Take the points. Play on CINCINNATI

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER 

As long as Cincinnati is winless, you can count on them to try. Though it’s happened twice in the 21st century, no team wants to go winless. The Bengals are 0-10. Half of those losses have been by 7 points or less though.  Pittsburgh is coming off the tumultuous game with Cleveland that ended with that ugly brawl. The Steelers also lost the game 21-7. There were players that took some blows that weren’t from Myles Garrett. Center Pouncey, RB Conner and WR Smith-Schuster will among those watching this one from the sidelines. The Steelers are averaging only 13.5 points/game on the road, making them an ugly favorite here. But the Bengals actually average 17.5 points at home. This is a very low total, which isn’t surprising, but the public pounding the total down opens up an opportunity. It may seem odd to take the dog and the Over in the same matchup, but it’s the combo we like. Play OVER Pittsburgh-Cincinnati

AAA

This is an 8* play on OVER

Another Over we like. A Washington game finally went Over last week, but they were on the wrong side of a 34-17 final score. It stopped a six-game Under streak. On the bright side, it was the most points the Redskins scored in a game in almost a month. They haven’t topped 17 since Week 2. But rookie Dwayne Haskins is now the starting QB. This will be the weakest defense Haskins has faced in his pro career. Detroit gives up 412.7 yards per game as well as 27.2 points. Only once in the last five games have they allowed less than 26 points. Four of those games have gone Over. So Washington should have ample opportunity to score this week. Still no Matt Stafford for the Lions. But seeing as the Redskins just gave up 34 points to the Jets that shouldn’t be a problem. Play OVER Detroit-Washington

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

So Tampa Bay is on an eight-game Over streak. Some of the games have gone Over by a lot. But recently, the line between Over and Under has been a lot thinner. Last week’s Over with New Orleans was a 34-17 game with a 50-point total. It was a late pick-6 that sent things Over. Painful loss for us. Part of the reason we’re going to try the Under again this week is the defensive resurgence of the Falcons. The last two games have seen Atlanta hold the Saints and Panthers to just 12 combined points.The last four Falcons games have gone Under as well. While Atlanta’s defense has improved the last two games, their offense may be set for a decline. Injuries are starting to pile up as both RB Freeman and TE Hooper will miss this game. For what it’s worth, the Bucs defense has allowed the second fewest rush yards. Atlanta’s defense hasn’t allowed a TD since before the bye. They got a special teams TD last week, which probably isn’t happening again. These are two of the least efficient offenses in the red zone. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Atlanta

AAA

This is a 10* on HOUSTON

The Texans come into this game sporting the same 6-4 record as the Colts and a near identical point differential. Everything seemed to be going fine in Houston, that was until they ran into Baltimore last week and lost 41-7. That loss may leave a bad taste in a lot of bettors' mouths, but it is important to remember that it was just "one game." One game on the road, against a very good team. It was the first time in QB Deshaun Watson's pro or college career that he lost a game by double digits. It was also the first time this season that Houston failed to score in the first half. The Texans had won four of five before being blown out by the Ravens. That one loss was the Colts, so if Houston needed any more motivation coming into Thursday, they've got it. Remember the Texans were eliminated by the Colts in the playoffs last year as well. They've lost three straight times to them overall. Obviously, this is the biggest game of the year. While quarterback Jacoby Brissett returning for the Colts was a welcome sight last week, the real key in the team's 33-13 win over Jacksonville was having two 100+ yard rushers. One of them (Marlon Mack) injured his hand though and he'll miss this game. The defense of the Texans has been great at stopping the run anyway (before facing Baltimore). They allow just 87 yards rushing per game at home. The Colts won't run wild in this game. The Texans have not lost back to back games this season. They should rebound nicely on TNF. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 10* on KC

It seems logical that Kansas City would bounce back in this spot. They are off a loss in which they outgained the opponent (Tennessee) 530-371. They had nine more first downs than the Titans in that game. But they also had two late-game field goal snafus that ended up costing them dearly. We don't think we'll be seeing those same kind of mistakes tonight in Estadio Azteca as the NFL once again heads to Mexico City. The Chargers are also off a close loss, theirs coming to the Raiders last Thursday. Again, costly miscues were the culprit as they finished the game -3 in turnover margin. One of the turnovers was an INT return for touchdown and that was basically the difference in a 26-24 game. LA finished with more yards and first downs than Oakland, similar to KC in its loss to Tennessee. This one boils down to the fact the Chiefs are simply better. Patrick Mahomes showed no ill-effects from his injury, throwing for more than 400 yards last week. The Chargers, who only average 20.7 points/game, simply don't score enough to keep up with the high-powered Chiefs. Kansas City is 9-1 the last 10 meetings with Los Angeles and has covered 8 of the last 11. Same 'ol story "south of the border." Play on KANSAS CITY

AAA

This is an 8* play on the OVER

The Rams offense may not be what it was last year, but this total is too low. When they faced the Bears last year, oddsmakers had the total at 50.5. That's a big change in one year's time. Now Bears fans will certainly want to point out what their defense did to the Rams last year. They held them to a season-low 6 points in an impressive primetime victory. But just like the Rams offense, the Bears defense doesn't seem to be what it was a year ago. When they're not facing one of the league's elite defenses, the Rams still do pretty well. A few weeks ago, asking the offense to break 20 points would have seemed like the easiest thing in the world. The Over is 5-2 when the Rams are off an ATS loss.  This is the lowest total for any Rams game in the Sean McVay era. That matters. There have only been three at 43 points or less, all of which occurred in the first six weeks of his tenure, and the Over was 3-0 in those games. The Bears offense is pretty bad, but even it scored 20 points last week. Getting to at least 17 this week seems realistic. Play OVER Chicago-LA Rams

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This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA

You probably remember the last time the Patriots played the Eagles. It was in the Super Bowl two years ago and they lost a memorable game, 41-33, as Doug Pederson was able to do what few have done and that's outcoach Bill Belichick. We'd be kidding ourselves to think that Super Bowl loss won't be on the mind of the Patriots Sunday. But so will a more recent defeat, the one that occurred two weeks ago in Baltimore. It was the first defeat of the year for New England and they pretty well got their "lunch" handed to them by the Ravens, losing 37-20.  Before that, the Patriots defense had been unbelievable. But they've also faced a weak slate of opponents: the Jets twice, Miami, Washington and the Giants to name a few.  Philly is also coming off a bye week, so no advantage for the Patriots there. Before their bye, Philly had won two straight and looked like a team that could win the NFC East. Carson Wentz may not have Alshon Jeffrey at his disposal this week, but he still has TE Zack Ertz and New England's defense struggles to defend tight ends. Ertz had nine catches for 103 yards two weeks ago against Chicago. The Eagles offense can also run the ball effectively.  How about the Philadelphia defense? The last two games have seen them give up just 27 points and 417 yards. Grab the points here with the home dog. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

New Orleans just suffered what has to be the most shocking loss of the NFL season. As a two-touchdown favorite, they fell 26-9 to the Falcons last week. That was at home. They were dominated. Coming off a loss like that, you figure the Saints will be eager to take the field this week. But they are traveling to Tampa Bay to face a Buccaneers team that all of a sudden has some confidence following a last minute win over Arizona. Drew Brees is back but this Saints offense doesn't seem right. Last week was the 4th game this year in which they were held to 13 points or less. Some of that was with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. But slow starts have been the norm. New Orleans has scored just 25 points in the 1st quarter this year. Eventually that's going to catch up with them. It certainly did last week. Tampa Bay's last seven games have all gone Over. Some of them by a lot. But last week's only went Over when they scored the game winning touchdown in the closing seconds. The previous week's game went to overtime. The defense should get better this week with the return of CB Carlton Davis. Down a key offensive lineman (Andrus Peat), don't be shocked if the Saints again struggle to protect Brees. Also, Tampa Bay's defense is #1 in the league at stopping the run. But the Saints can probably count on their own defense in this game. They come in allowing just 20.2 points/game. Play UNDER New Orleans-Tampa Bay 

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

Atlanta recorded what has to be considered the upset of the year, beating New Orleans last week 26-9 as a 14-point underdog. The Falcons came into that game at 1-7 and had not covered since a Week 2 win against Philadelphia. Having now beaten the likes of Philadelphia and New Orleans, the Falcons should be taken seriously - even at 2-7. This might be a lost season. But the team isn't bad. It's simply underachieved. Consider that they have gained more yards than they've allowed this season!  There was nothing fluky about the win in New Orleans either. What had previously been a non-existent pass rush even decided to show up as the Falcons sacked Drew Brees six times. Carolina's defense has looked real shaky of late. They gave up 51 points to the 49ers a few weeks back and are allowing 25.3 points/game for the year. The last three games have seen them allow 516 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. Despite having a better record than Atlanta, the Panthers (5-4) are being outgained this year. Matt Ryan has always had his way with Carolina, beating them 14 times in 22 tries. He and the Falcons are 6-1 the last seven meetings. Half of Atlanta's ATS victories the last two years have come in division games. Kyle Allen started to look like a backup in Carolina's 24-16 loss last week to Green Bay. Our guess is that his regression will continue. We'll take the points with the team that has the edge at QB. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on CLEVELAND

The underachieving Browns got back into the win column last week by beating Buffalo 19-16 as a 2.5 point favorite. Despite being just 3-6 on the season, the Browns do have reason for hope. Their upcoming schedule is among the easiest in the entire league. Remaining games for the Browns include: Arizona, Miami and two with 0-9 Cincinnati. But first they've got to beat long-time nemesis Pittsburgh Thursday night. The Steelers have definitely had the Browns number through the years. The last eight meetings have seen the Steelers go 7-0-1. The tie was last year. Pittsburgh comes into this game as the underdog, but has won four in a row. Most of the wins have been close though. Three were decided by seven points or less. The other, against a Miami team that was winless at the time, saw them fall behind 13-0. So the Steelers aren't exactly dominating. Another benefit the Steelers have enjoyed is that six of their nine games have been played at home. That includes the last three. The only road game they've played the last six weeks was against the Chargers, who have the one of the weakest home field advantages in the league. Despite winning that game, the Steelers were outgained. They've been outgained by an average of 146.8 yards in the three road games this season. The Browns have only scored 38 points the past two weeks despite getting into the red zone nine times. That's almost historic inefficiency. We look for the Browns' offense to finally have its breakthrough game Thursday night in front of what should be a rabid Dawg Pound. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER 

You have to wonder if the Over is set to make a "comeback" in these primetime affairs. The Under had been 13-4 in Sunday/Monday night games this year prior to last night's Over in Minnesota-Dallas. We had the Over last night and that's the way we're playing Monday night's game as well. It's not just about bucking a trend for us though. Both of these teams can certainly score. In their last home game, the 49ers put up 51 points. Seattle scored 40 last week in an overtime victory over Tampa Bay. The Seahawks will add Josh Gordon to their offense this week. The mercurial Gordon certainly has his share of off the field problems, but can be as talented a receiver as there is. Not that Russell Wilson needs much help these days. Wilson is having a MVP caliber season with 2,505 yards passing. That the Niners are without LB Kwon Alexander is huge. A rookie (Dre Greenlaw) is replacing him. San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo should have a big night as well. Seattle's pass defense ranks 28th, giving up 278 yards/game. They allowed 460 yards to a backup (Matt Schaub) two weeks ago and then 335 to Jameis Winston last week. The Over has hit in six of Seattle's last seven NFC West games. The same for four of San Francisco's last five NFC West games. This could easily turn into a high-scoring game. Play OVER Seattle-San Francisco

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

The numbers aren't good here for Kirk Cousins, whether it be his record on the road vs. winning teams (0-7-1 SU/ATS with Minnesota), his record on the road in primetime (1-7 SU, 1-6-1 ATS) or his record against Dallas (1-6 straight up, including 0-4 vs. Dak Prescott). But Cousins has either completed 80% of his passes or thrown 3 TD passes in five straight games. The Vikings did lose last week, 26-23 at Kansas City, but are 23-9-1 ATS off a loss under Mike Zimmer. They're getting Dallas on a short week. The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS after playing on Monday Night Football under Jason Garrett. So the trends aren't all against Minnesota Sunday night. Another trend that's interesting is the Under has gone 13-4 in Sunday & Monday night games this NFL season. That includes 8-0 when the home team is favored. But with two explosive offenses this week, we feel that trend is about to change. We've got two of the game's best runners facing off in Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott. Cook has 1232 yards from scrimmage and leads the league in rushing. The Vikings defense isn't the same away from home either as it has given up 56 points the last two road games. The Cowboys offense has scored 37 points in back to back games. They are averaging 6.8 yards/game and 436.6 yards/game. This total simply isn't high enough for a game that could quickly turn into a shootout. Play OVER Minnesota-Dallas

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This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY

Tampa Bay (2-6) has found a variety of ways to lose this year. Last week, it was blowing a 21-7 lead in Seattle. The Bucs couldn't even get the ball in overtime after the Seahawks missed the potential game-tying FG at the end of regulation.  This week finds the Bucs favored for just the third time all season. They've lost outright in the first two, one to San Francisco (back in Week 1) and then to the Giants in Week 3. Were they to lose for a third time as chalk this year, things could get real ugly for Bruce Arians in Tampa. We don't think they lose though. Despite its 2-6 record, the Bucs have actually outgained their opponents. They are better than what the record shows. This is also their first home game since blowing that big lead to the Giants back in Week 3. At 3-5-1, Arizona has been slightly better than expected. They actually played a really nice game last week in San Francisco with the offense gaining over 7.0 yards/play against the league's top defense. But this is a road game and an early start time to boot. The time has simply come for a TB victory. The Cardinals have three wins, but they've come by just 10 total points. The Bucs have lost four games by a total of 18 points. The home team should move the ball and will be playing some inspired defense. Play on TAMPA BAY

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

So Tampa Bay found another way to lose last week. It was blowing a 21-7 lead in Seattle and going down in overtime where they didn't even have a chance to possess the ball. A tough break for Bruce Arians team, which is now 2-6 on the year. This week find the Bucs favored for just the third time this season. They are hosting the 3-5-1 Cardinals who will be coming in with some confidence after taking the undefeated 49ers to the wire last Thursday. The Arizona offense even averaged over 7.0 yards/play against what is the league's top defense. With the Bucs on a six-game Over streak, the expectation here will clearly be for a high-scoring shootout. But be careful with expectations sometimes. This high number is something we can take advantage of this week.Tampa's run defense is actually #1 in the league this year, giving up only 78.1 yards/game. So hopefully they can make the Arizona offense one-dimensional. While Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has some of the same skill-set as Russell Wilson (who faced the Bucs last week), Murray just isn't the passer Wilson is - at least yet. The Under is still 15-7 in Tampa Bay's last 22 home games. Play UNDER Arizona-Tampa Bay

AAA

This is an 8* on the NY JETS

The state of professional football in New Jersey is downright putrid with the two teams occupying MetLife Stadium owning a combined 3-14 record. The Giants (2-7) have lost five in a row while the Jets (1-7) hit rock bottom last week by becoming the first team to lose to Miami. It's tough to decipher any real advantages in a matchup this bad. What's unique is this is a "neutral site game." But the Giants are on a short week. Things got away from them in the second half Monday vs. Dallas and they ended up losing 38-17. The short week definitely works against the Giants. The Jets are probably in even worse shape right now coming off the loss in Miami. But at least they can claim to have beaten a Dallas team that blew the Giants out twice. Coach Adam Gase seems to be in really "hot water" right about now. He could be done after one year if things continue to go south. The Giants offense has really not improved much with Daniel Jones as the quarterback. They've been held below 300 yards four times during the five-game losing streak. Before losing to Miami, the Jets were set to be favored this week. We see some value (believe it or not) in backing them as a dog in this all-ugly matchup. In the past five seasons, there have been 15 instances in Week 6 or later between two teams with winning percentages of .250 or lower. The underdog is 14-1 straight up and a perfect 15-0 ATS! Play on NY JETS

AAA

This is a 10* on OAKLAND

Either the Chargers or Raiders are likely to end up with 8 wins this year. Can't say that's something we would have expected to write just a couple of weeks ago. But both AFC West teams are off victories heading into Thursday night's matchup. The Chargers, now 4-5, surprised a lot of people by beating Green Bay on Sunday. That's a game where we had the Under. They held Aaron Rodgers to just 11 points. But as impressive as the win was, it's crucial to remember it was the best LA has looked all season. Oakland, who is 4-4, just beat Detroit 31-24. It was the first time all year that the Raiders were favored to win a game, so they've definitely overachieved. Interestingly, the Chargers were favorites in each of their first six games. The Raiders have not beaten the Chargers in awhile. They've lost all four meetings the previous two seasons and gone 0-4 ATS as well. But this is definitely the best they've been since Jon Gruden took over. All four TD's against the Lions were scored by rookies! It's the Raiders time (to beat LA) on Thursday. Before the Chargers beat the Packers, Oakland was set to be a slight favorite in this matchup. The Raiders are a solid 6-1 ATS the last 7 home games and we don't see a Chargers team that started 2-5 magically turning things around with what would be a third straight win. Play on OAKLAND

AAA

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This is a 10* on DALLAS

This is a line move that we don't agree with at all. All the trends support a play on the Cowboys as does all that we've seen on the field this year. Getting Dallas laying less than a touchdown here is a bonafide steal.Road teams are 23-12-1 ATS in division games this season. Furthermore, Dallas has gone 13-2 SU and ATS within its division the last 2+ seasons. This includes 5-0 SU and ATS vs. the Giants. The 'Boys are 7-0 SU/ATS L7 overall vs. the rest of the NFC East.The Giants are not a good home team. Going back to last year, they are just 2-9-1 ATS at MetLife Stadium including 1-7 as an underdog. The Cowboys really took it to the Giants in Week 1, winning 35-17. They come into this rematch well rested as last week was their bye. The Giants have lost four in a row. While only 4-3, Dallas has outscored opponents by 66 points (5th best margin) and they are outgaining opponents by 112.8 yards/game, also one of the top margins. The Cowboys have outgained all but one opponent this year. The Giants have outgained only two. Play on DALLAS

AAA

This is a 10* on BALTIMORE

Baltimore has clearly been the recipient of some sharp action for this Sunday night duel with New England. We almost never want to fade the Patriots unless its a large spread, but this is the rare time to do so. The Ravens are off their bye and have gone 8-3 ATS in this situation under John Harbaugh. They are also rarely a home dog. The last 18 games here in Baltimore, the home team has been the favorite. New England hasn't exactly faced a murderer's row thus far. They've played Pittsburgh, Miami, the Jets twice, Buffalo, Washington, the Giants and Cleveland. None of those teams have winning records and four of the games have been against the three worset teams in the league. Substantial turnover margins have really been helping the Patriots so far. Baltimore has zero turnovers in four of its seven games. In a game where points could be at a premium, we want to be on the underdog. Also be cognizant of the Patriots problems in the kicking game. Play on BALTIMORE

AAA

This is an 8* on DENVER

The 2-5 Browns have not lived up to expectations this season and quite frankly neither have the 2-6 Broncos. The loser of this game is going to be in real trouble, especially if it's Denver. Cleveland at least has an easy schedule to look forward to, although at 2-6 the chances of making the playoffs would be quite small. The line for this game has moved considerably. That's because Joe Flacco is injured and Brandon Allen will start in his place for the Broncos. The offense wasn't scoring a ton with Flacco in there though. We actually don't believe Denver's offense is in substantially worse shape heading into this game, making them a good value play on the Week 9 card. The public, which was in love with the Browns at the start of the season, can't help itself when it sees a backup quarterback. They want to take the other side. But remember when Carolina started Kyle Allen for the first time? They were underdogs at Arizona, a ridiculous line in hindsight and not just because the Panthers won that game 38-20. First time starting QB's have torn it up this year, going a perfect 8-0 against the spread. Look for Allen to make it nine straight covers. It's not like Cleveland has been very impressive. They did win in Baltimore, but their only other win was against a Jets team down to its third string QB. The Browns are -48 in point differential. Denver is the team whose record probably should be a lot better. They've lost three games on last second field goals, including last week. The Broncos defense is giving up only 18.9 points/game and 304.5 yards/game, both of which are top 10 marks in the league. Play on DENVER

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This is an 8* on the UNDER

The Packers are 7-1 heading into this game and have won four straight. The Chargers are only 3-5, but did win last thanks to a missed field goal by the Bears. Even though they won, the Chargers offense gained only 231 total yards last week. They've scored more than 24 points in regulation just one time and that was against Miami. That's the only time since Week 1 that they've scored more than 20. The Under is 6-1 their last 7 games. The Over is 5-1 in Green Bay's last six games, so one of these teams O/U trends is going to cease. The Packers defense has been improved this year, giving up just 20.4 points/game. With Chargers games typically being so low scoring, signs point to that continuing this week. The Packers have faced a couple of bad offenses the last two weeks. The Chargers are giving up only 19.6 points/game. We love that the number has been bet up during the week. The Under is 5-2 for Green Bay following a game where they scored 30 or more points. Play UNDER Green Bay-LA Chargers

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Tampa Bay heads to Seattle desperate for a win. The Bucs are just 2-5 after blowing another lead and losing last week. Turning things around won't be easy though as the Seahawks are 6-2. We're calling for an Under. Seattle rarely blows anybody out. They have only one win by more than seven points all year. Last week's 27-20 win over Atlanta wasn't really that close though. The Seahawks led 24-0 at one point. The Falcons did much of their offensive damage in garbage time. Tampa Bay's last five games have gone Over. That has resulted in their highest O/U line to date. The same thing is true for Seattle. The number is too high. Tampa Bay has only gone over 26 points in two games. Seattle scored 27 last week, but just 16 the week before than and is actually scoring less at home where they are 0-4 ATS. The Seahawks lost their starting center for the season. That will have a major impact on the rest of the offensive line, if not the entire offense. One thing you shouldn't expect from this game is for Seattle to run the ball well. The Buccaneers are giving up only 69 yards rushing per game. That's the best mark in the league. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Seattle

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This is a 10* on PITTSBURGH

It's a short week for the 3-4 Steelers, who had to come from behind to beat the winless Dolphins on Monday Night Football. They host the 5-2 Colts, who have yet to play a game that wasn't decided by seven points or less. We think the Steelers are set to pull off a "surprise" win at home.  Pittsburgh didn't cover Monday's game, but did end up winning comfortably. After spotting Miami an early 14-0 lead, the Steelers scored the game's final 27 points. They ended up outgaining the Dolphins 394-230. It was Mason Rudolph's first game back after sustaining a concussion against Baltimore. He got better as the game wen along. We actually played against the Steelers last week. But that was as a big favorite. They are 8-2 ATS the last ten times as an underdog. It's a short line this week and who knows where it'll end up by kickoff. But the bottom line is that Pittsburgh is a much better value this week than they were vs. Miami. Indianapolis is 5-2, but has been outgained this year and has a weak scoring differential. Last week was the third time they won a game by three points or less. They should be commended for how they've done in the wake of Andrew Luck's shocking retirement, but this is far from a dominant team. Pittsburgh's offensive line could be key in this game. They've allowed the fewest sacks in the league and could push around a Colts run defense that ranks near the bottom of the league. Play on PITTSBURGH

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This is a 10* on ARIZONA

We'd be surprised if Arizona (3-4-1) won this game. However, it's a lot of points to be getting at home. The 49ers may be unbeaten (7-0), but there's been only one game this year where they were favored by more than six points. It was against Washington (-10) and they won 9-0. This is a division road game and a short week. As impressive as the Niners looked in Sunday's 51-13 beatdown of the Panthers, we disagree with the early line move. The Cardinals had won three in a row prior to facing New Orleans last week. While the Saints ended up beating them 31-9, it was actually a one-score game entering the 4th quarter. The 49ers have not beaten the Cardinals since 2014. They're on an eight-game losing streak in this NFC West rivalry. Only two of the last 11 meetings have been decided by greater than 10 points. Last week was San Francisco's highest scoring game of the season while it was Arizona's lowest scoring game of the season. Neither performance is really representative of what you're likely to see this week. The 49ers are 15-32-4 ATS their L51 games following a win by two touchdowns. Arizona is 8-2 ATS after giving up 30 or more points the previous game. Play on ARIZONA

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

The Dolphins were so bad at the start of the season that the idea of backing them in any situation just sounded gross. But we took them a couple of weeks ago, as a home dog vs. Washington, and they covered the spread. They actually almost won the game. A late touchdown pulled them within a point. Coach Brian Flores, seeing an opportunity to nab his first win, decided to go for the 2-pt conversion and the win. That failed, but we still respect the aggressiveness. Another Flores decision we concur with is starting Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. Since Fitzpatrick (permanently?) replaced Josh Rosen, the Miami offense has looked much better. Last week, the Dolphins gained a solid 5.8 yards per play against a Bills defense that had previously shut down Tom Brady. That Bills defense came in third in the league in yards per play allowed. The Miami defense has also gotten better in recent weeks. They held Buffalo to only nine points in three quarters. Two of the three touchdowns allowed in that game were not the fault of the defense as one came after a turnover inside their own 20-yard line another was a kick return. A 2-4 Steelers team should not be laying this many points with a backup quarterback coming off a concussion. Mason Rudolph is the first QB since 1995 to be laying two touchdowns with four or less career starts under his belt. Double digits favorites with a win percentage of .333 or worse are just 2-7 ATS all-time. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on KC

Kansas City won’t have Patrick Mahomes this week. However, they’ve had extra time to get Matt Moore ready as they played the Thursday game last week. Moore certainly appeared competent enough in that Thursday night win over Denver. Despite missing Mahomes for a large portion of the game, the Chiefs still won 30-6. They are 5-1 ATS the last six times as an underdog, a role they are now in for the first time this season. Green Bay is 6-1 but hasn’t been dominant. They’ve actually outgained only two of their opponents. The Chiefs defense allowed just 205 total yards last week, so don’t be surprised if they pick up the slack in Mahomes absence. Andy Reid is 15-8 ATS in regular season games when he’s had at least 10 days to prepare. Play on KANSAS CITY

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This is a 10* play on UNDER

Despite being a dog in all six games, Oakland is 3-3. Houston is 4-3. Both teams are off losses. The Raiders gave up 42 points to the Packers, a game which turned when QB Derek Carr fumbled the ball through the end zone. The Texans lost a key AFC South battle in Indianapolis as the Colts were off a bye. With the Raiders 4-0 Over the L4 games and the Texans 3-0 Over the L3 games, it’s not a shock that the total for this week has been bet up. But it’s too high in our opinion. The Under is 8-2 in Raiders games that have a total of 50 points or higher the last three seasons. This year, the Raiders have scored more than 24 points only once. The key here becomes the Raiders holding Houston under 30 points, which is certainly doable as the Texans have scored more than 28 just two times. The Under is also 16-7 in the Texans last 23 AFC games and 6-1 their last 7 home games. Play UNDER Houston-Oakland

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This is an 8* on TENNESSEE

Tennessee is 3-4, but would be 2-5 had Melvin Gordon not fumbled at the goal line last week. They host a Tampa Bay team that’s 2-4 and off a bye. The Bucs certainly could have won over in London two weeks ago, but seven turnovers vs. Carolina guaranteed they didn’t. This isn’t the best spot for Tampa Bay. Not only are they 0-7 the last seven games as a road underdog of three points or less, they’re also 1-8 ATS the last nine October games. The NFC may be the stronger conference, but the Titans are 7-2 ATS the last nine non-conference games. Ryan Tannehill is now the starting QB at Tennessee and with him under center, the offense had its most yards in a game last week (403). Now they face one of the worst defenses in the league. The Titans defense is 4th in the league in scoring. Jameis Winston still turns it over too much and he’s been sacked 13 times the last two games. Play on TENNESSEE

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This is an 8* play on CHICAGO

You get the feeling that both the Chargers and Bears are heading in the wrong direction. Both teams made the playoffs a year ago. The Chargers are now 2-5 while the Bears are 3-3. The Chargers have lost three straight (all by seven points or fewer) while the Bears have lost two straight. Something will have to give this week as LA is on a 13-5 ATS run on the road and Chicago is on a 13-6 ATS run at home. Bears QB Trubisky is under fire but is 9-3 ATS vs. teams that have a losing record. He’s facing a bad pass defense this week. The Chargers have a ton of injuries at key positions and the return of running back Melvin Gordon has done nothing. Gordon is averaging just 2.3 yards per rush. The Bears still have a strong defense even though it didn’t look good last week against New Orleans. Play on CHICAGOAAA

This is an 8* on JACKSONVILLE

The Jets were just humiliated Monday night by the Patriots. They aren’t likely to play that poorly again, but a short week isn’t likely to cure all that ills them. Jacksonville is 3-4 and has a chance to get to .500 with a win here. They beat Cincinnati 27-17 last week. Gardner Minshew II is doing a pretty good job at quarterback. He’s 3-0 ATS against losing teams. Jets QB Darnold is 5-10-1 ATS as a starter. Jets coach Adam Gase is 4-13 ATS in his career (includes Miami obviously) when getting five or more points and has won just one of the games straight up. The Jaguars defense is banged up, but fortunately the Jets offense isn’t good. There has been only one game where the Jets scored more than 16 points. The line has given up the second most sacks. Too short of a number. Play on JACKSONVILLE

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This is a 10* on WASHINGTON

Oddsmakers are expecting a blowout Thursday night when the 5-2 Vikings host the 1-6 Redskins. Washington has been very poor this year in all facets and was just shut out Sunday in the rain by the 49ers. It was a 9-0 loss. The Skins had won their first game for interim coach Bill Callahan, beating Miami 17-16. Then they covered at home vs. the 49ers. So there is some limited progress being made, at least on the defensive end. Three of the past four games have seen the Redskins allow 24 points or less. The only one they didn't was against New England. Minnesota has been impressive on offense its last two games, but they haven't always been great and Kirk Cousins still shouldn't be trusted. Something to keep mind ... Since 2009, Minnesota has been -14 or more just one time. It was last year vs. Buffalo and they lost the game straight up. None of their wins this year have been by more than 20 points. Very hard to win in this league by this amount. The underdog has covered 7 of the last 10 times the teams have met. Play on WASHINGTON 

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THis is a 10* on OVER 

New England and New York already played once this year and it was a 30-14 win by the Patriots. The Jets actually failed to score an offensive touchdown in that game (1 def, 1 ST), but that was with Luke Falk making his first career NFL start at quarterback. Falk is thankfully no longer around as Sam Darnold returned last week to throw for 300+ yards in an upset of Dallas. Darnold being on the field this time should automatically make the Jets more competitive. Despite not scoring an offensive touchdown in that first meeting, the Jets still covered. The game also went Over the total. If we can get an Over with one team not even scoring an offensive TD, it makes sense to come back with that same play for the rematch now that Darnold is the Jets QB. The Patriots average 31.7 points/game. So with the Jets likely to score more than they did the first go around with New England, all we need is an “average” type performance from the Patriots offense and this one should sail Over. The Over is 7-3 in the Jets past 10 home games. Play OVER New England-NY Jets

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This is an 8* play on DALLAS

Huge game in the NFC East this week as the winner will be in first place with a key head to head win. Dallas has lost three in a row, all as favorites. You’d have to go back to 1974 to find the last time they lost four in a row as favorites. While things haven’t been going well of late, they have beaten Philly three straight times. The Eagles certainly didn’t look good last week in an 18-point loss at Minnesota. Their secondary was shredded and remains a huge question mark. So Dak Prescott should have a big game tonight, especially with the Cowboys offensive line now healthy (Tyron Smith back). The Cowboys are 12-2 SU/ATS their L14 division games. Play on DALLAS

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