This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the OVER between the New York Jets and the Arizona Cardinals.

REASONING: We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

For this pick, we’re taking a plain old “common sense” approach. We think this is a great “situational” play. At 1-4, clearly the Jets are not where they’d hope they’d be at this point of the season. The same could be said of the Cardinals who are just 2-3. These were two good offenses last year, but so far both units have struggled with consistency. We think that finally changes tonight. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick has struggled with interceptions, but to be fair, many of those were backloaded when New York was playing catch-up, occurring at the end of games when the contest was already out of reach. 

Carson Palmer returns from a two game absence for the home side. Last year he was the general of the league’s No. 1 offense. The veteran has also struggled, but we think with the extra time off that Palmer will be a lot sharper tonight.

Also note that New York has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last ten non-conference games, while Arizona has seen the total sail above the posted number in nine of its last 15 against teams with losing records and in five of its last eight off a win against a division rival.

The bottom line: We’re expecting these teams to open up the playbook, to push the pace while on offense and for this total to indeed go OVER the posted number as it comes down the stretch.

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This is a 10* DIVISIONAL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans.

Setting the scene: Indianapolis comes in off a 29-23 win over Chicago last week, while Houston fell 31-13 to Minnesota. These division rivals split the series last year, with the Texans winning 16-10 in the last meeting.

The Colts: QB Andrew Luck is having a solid season, last week he threw for 322 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. He was sacked five times though. RB Frank Gore had his best game of the year, rushing for 75 yards off 14 carries. The offense is averaging 27.4 PPG. With the offense firing on all cylinders, it’s the defense which has been lacking, as the unit concedes an average of 29.6 PPG, ranked 30th overall. Indianpolis though has to be liking its chances against this struggling Houston offense tonight.

The Texans: Houston is becoming predictable on offense. QB Brock Osweiler has six TD’s to seven INT’s at this point. It’s not entirely his fault though, as the run game has been nearly non existent. So far Houston averages just 16.4 PPG, ranked 31st in the league. The defense hasn’t been at the same level as year’s past, but it’s still the teams’ strength, the unit is ranked 13th overall in conceding an average of 20.8 PPG. 

The bottom line: Divisional battles are always the most important. We think field position will play a big part in the final outcome of this “chess match” and look for this total to fall UNDER once it’s all said and done.

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This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on the Miami Dolphins.

Setting the scene: At 1-4, the Dolphins have little hope at making the playoffs. At 1-5 though, it would truly then be time to start looking ahead to next season. It’s do-or-die every week for Miami and while we’re going to stop short in calling for an outright upset, we do think that the intensity the home side brings today will prove to be the difference. 

The Steelers: Pittsburgh beat the Jets on Sunday to move to 4-1. The Steelers have looked unstoppable for the most part, except for their inexplicable 34-3 setback to the Eagles. 

The Dolphins: Miami lost 30-17 to the Titans last week. Ryan Tannehill and RB Jay Ajayi have got to get things figured out quickly, or heads are going to roll in South Beach.

The bottom line: Note that Pittsburgh is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road fav of 3 1/2 to seven points, while Miami is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU losses. This is a great situational play, as we believe the visitors are going to get caught in a classic “spot” scenario here, with a game against New England next week, followed by their bye-week, all signs point to the Steelers “looking ahead” to that much more important part of their schedule. Combined with the “do-or-die” mentality that the Fish have to bring tonight, all signs point to the points as the savvy move in this contest. Play on the DOLPHINS.

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This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the San Diego Chargers.

Setting the scene: It’s a classic strength against strength matchup tonight, as San Diego possesses one of the best offenses in the league, while the Broncos own one of the best defenses. They say “defense wins championships,” but there’s nothing on the line of that magnitude tonight. We think the hungry home side does just enough to pull off the slight upset this evening.

The Broncos: Denver comes to town on a short week and off its first loss of the year. It’s a prime situational “letdown” spot if we’ve ever seen one. In last week’s 23-16 loss to the Falcons, it was backup Paxton Lynch under center as Trevor Siemian was given the night off to recoup his non-throwing shoulder. It was a bigger loss than what the final score indicated, as Paxton would gain some production late when the game was already decided. Note that Paxton was sacked six times on Sunday. Siemian will be back directing the show tonight, so far he has six TD’s and three INT’s this season. 

The Chargers: San Diego could easily be 4-1 right now. Note that it entered Week 5 sitting at 1-3, having led every single game in the final two minutes. Clearly the team has defensive issues, but the unit catches a break in facing this vanilla Broncos offense, which has struggled with its ground game, turning the already one-dimensional offense even more so. But as mentioned above, the Bolts are in fact the AFC’s highest-scoring team with an average of 30.4 PPG. 

The bottom line: The short week always favors the home side. Not only does Denver have to worry about the four day turnaround, but head coach Gary Kubiak has been dealing with health issues all week after he was taken to hospital by an ambulance on Sunday night. This one has all of the situational factors in place for an outright upset, but in the end we’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can, play on SAN DIEGO.

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the San Diego Chargers and the Oakland Raiders.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based almost entirely on strong and relevant O/U ATS statistics:

Note that San Diego has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten against teams with winning records and in eight of its last 13 against division opponents, while Oakland has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five as a favorite.

The bottom line: These two teams are moving in opposite directions, as the Chargers are coming off back-to-back losses, while the Raiders enter off consecutive wins. We’re expecting this one to sneak UNDER this sky-high number.

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This is a 10* SHOCKER OF THE YEAR on the Cincinnati Bengals.

Setting the scene: No one thought Dallas would be 3-1 after the first four games when starting QB Tony Romo was injured in the preseason. So far Cincinnati has struggled with consistency, but we think the 2-2 Bengals will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Cincinnati: They come to town off a confidence building 22-7 home win over the Dolphins. LB Vontaze Burfict returned from suspension and made an immediate impact. Expect the unit to get a ton of pressure on Cowboys’ rookie QB Dak Prescott. Note that over their last two games the Bengals have giving up a total of just 114 rushing yards.

Dallas: Prescott was 23 of 32 for 245 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s in the win over the toothless 49ers last week. The Cowboys though are still without the services of Romo, No. 1 WR Dez Bryant, starting LT Tyron Smith and their top CB Orlando Scandrick. 

The bottom line: Note that the Bengals are 9-1 ATS in their last ten on the road and 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 following a SU victory, while the Cowboys are just 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 in front of the home town crowd. We think the injuries finally catch up to the Cowboys this weekend and that Cincinnati’s defense continues to shine. Play on the BENGALS.

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the Atlanta Falcons and the Denver Broncos.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based almost entirely on strong and relevant O/U ATS statistics:

Note that Atlanta has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last ten games played on a grass field, in six of its last nine against teams with winning records and in 13 of its last 18 on the road, while Denver has seen the total go UNDER in five of its last eight as a home fav in the 3.5 to 7 points range and in eight of its last ten non-conference contests.

The bottom line: Denver’s vaunted defense will have to be sharp today against Atlanta’s high-flying offense, but the conditions obviously favor the home side. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the Washington Redskins and the Baltimore Ravens.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based almost entirely on strong and relevant O/U ATS statistics:

Note that Washington has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of its last ten agasint teams with winning records, while Baltimore has seen the total dip below the number in 11 of its last 18 at home and two of its last three as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.

The bottom line: This has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a “track meet.” We’re expecting this one to sneak below the posted number.

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This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the New York Giants.

Setting the scene: Minnesota is 3-0 because of its tough defensive play. The offensive unit has been horrible though. While far from perfect, the Giants are much more balanced, with both their offense and defense ranking in the top 3rd. We think the skill players and overall depth of the visitors will prove to be too much for the over-achieving Vikings to handle tonight and while we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we’re going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

The Giants: New York had a mental lapse in last week’s 29-27 loss to the Redskins as Eli Manning was picked off three times. The offense would go on to finish with 28 first downs and 457 total yards (120 rushing). Manning was solid (other than the three INT’s), finishing with 350 yards on 25 of 38. WR Odell Beckham Jr. had 7 catches for 121 yards. So far the Giants average sixth in the NFL with 396.7 yards per game and 99 YPG on the ground. The defense isn’t far behind, allowing just 339.7 YPG, good for tenth in the league.

The Vikes: We think that Minnesota suffers a classic letdown tonight, especially after its 22-10 road win in Carolina last week. So far the defense has been great, allowing just 295 yards per game, ranked 6th in the league. The offense though has been terrible. Last week it had just 13 first downs and 211 total yards. Sam Bradford was an unimpressive 17 of 28 for 171 yards and a TD. Minnesota managed just 45 yards on the ground off 16 carries. With the injury to Adrian Peterson, it’s not surprising to learn that the Vikes rank last in the NFL in rushing yards per game (note that they’re also 28th in passing yards per game at 265.3). 

The bottom line: The Giants play with revenge tonight after getting thumped 49-17 in Minnesota last season. Ultimately we believe that the Vikes’ “luck” runs out this evening as we’re expecting the veteran Manning to at the very least, keep his team in this one down the stretch. Grab as many points as you can, play on NEW YORK (and consider sprinkling a little on the money line as well!).

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This is a 10 TOTAL BIG TIGER on the OVER between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Setting the scene: The 2-1 Chiefs get ready to battle the 2-1 Steelers on Sunday Night football and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, we’re expecting these teams to have played to a higher-scoring shootout.

The Chiefs: Kansas City dismantled the the Jets 24-3 last week, intercepting a normally steady Ryan Fitzpatrick six times. It was just one of those games for the defense and while performances like those don’t come around too often, it was still impressive. QB Alex Smith though was also dominant, finishing 25 of 33 for 237 yards and a TD with no INT’s. RB Spencer Ware rushed for a season-high 75 yards off 20 carries. All eyes will be on Jamaal Charles this evening.

The Steelers: Pittsburgh looks to atone itself after last week’s 34-3 loss to Philadelphia. It will also be out for a little revenge tonight after Kansas City beat it 23-13 last year. Ben Roethlisbeger has 816 yards on the season so far. The home side gets a huge boost today with the return of RB Le’Veon Bell, who has now served his three game suspension. Combined with WR Antonio Brown, who was a bright spot last week with 12 catches for 140 yards, the Steelers’ offensive unit will be playing with a chip on its shoulder tonight. But the defense also took a step back last week, allowing rookie QB Carson Wentz to go for over 300 yards with two TD’s. So far the Steelers allow 21.7 PPG, ranking the team 19th overall. 

The bottom line: Le’Veon Bell adds an entirely different dimension to the Steelers offense and we think that the Chiefs’ defense is going to have its hands full this week (note, the Chargers put up 27 points on KC already this year). Smith has been solid for Kansas City and he’ll also have his opportunities against this lower-third defensive unit of Pittsburgh’s. Note that Kansas City has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, while Pittsburgh has seen the total go OVER in six of its last seven as a home favorite in the same points range. Play the OVER.

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers.

Dallas has won two straight, but San Fran has dropped two in a row. The Cowboys beat up on an injured Bears team lst week 31-17, while San Francisco fell 37-18 to Seattle. Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott had his best game as pro, finishing with 19 of 24 passing for 248 yards and a score, while also running another one in himself. RB Ezekiel Elliot had 140 yards on 30 carries with the team going on to post 199 rushing yards overall. After beating the Rams 28-0 on opening night, San Francisco has predictably come back down to Earth as it was 0-6 on third down in the first half and most of its paltry 254 total yards came in the fourth frame when the game was already decided. A lone bright spot on the offense was Carlos Hyde, who had 103 yards on 21 carries to go along with two scores. Note that Dallas has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 14 after two more consecutive SU wins, while San Francisco has seen the total go UNDER in 14 of its last 17 at home and in eight of its last ten against teams with winning records. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the Denver Broncos and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Broncos come to town as one of five undefeated teams left in the league. They’ve been getting the job done with an offense that pounds the ball and limits its mistakes and which feeds off its league leading defensive unit. Tampa comes off a deflating 31-24 loss to the Rams last week, a game which was hlated for two hours because of a lightning storm. Denver QB Trevor Siemian threw for 312 yards and four TD’s last week. His counterpart today is Jameis Winston, who set a career high in yards last week (405). Clearly the Bucs’ defense will be out to atone after letting an LA offense score five TD’s, after the unit had mustered just nine points through the first two games. Note that Denver has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last nine non-conference games, while Tampa has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 14 after two or more consecutive SU losses. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the Cleveland Browns and the Washington Redskins.

Washington comes in banged up after its big 29-27 win at NFC East rival New York last week as LG Shaun Lauvao and center Kory Lichtensteiger left the game with injury. CB Bashaud Breeland and CB DeAngelo Hall also sustained injuries. The home side catches a break though in facing the 0-3 Browns, who are now down to their third string QB in Cody Kessler. Cleveland is set up for a letdown here after its heartbreaking 30-24 setback to the Dolphins last week, a contest which it could have won if not for a missed FG in the final moments of regulation. Note that Cleveland has seen the total in 11 of its last 18 on the road and in six of its last nine non-conference games, while Washington has seen the total go UNDER in two of its last three as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the Carolina Panthers and the Atlanta Falcons.

1-2 Carolina collides with 2-1 division rival Atlanta on Sunday afternoon and we think this one will sneak UNDER the number once it’s all said and done. Carolina comes off a 22-10 loss at home to the Vikes last week. Atlanta comes off a high-scoring blowout 45-32 win on Monday night over New Orleans, so it will be operating on the short week. However, if history is any precedence, then we can expect a lower-scoring defensive battle between these bitter foes, as Carolina would prevail 38-0 in the first game last year, while Atlanta held on for the 20-17 victory in the second. Carolina QB Cam Newton struggled behind a shaky offensive line last week and so far he’s thrown just five TD’s on the year to go along with five INT’s. Don’t read too much into Atlanta’s big performance against the inept Saints’ secondary as it was in fact the run game which stole the show, Devonta Freeman led the way with 152 yards on 14 carries. WR Julio Jones was shutdown, making just one catch off seven targets. Atlanta’s defense will now look to bounce back after getting torched by Brees. Ryan and company are about to face the best defense they’ve seen yet this year though, so we’re expecting the home side to have a much more difficult time moving the ball this weekend. Note that Carolina has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 12 against the division, while Atlanta has seen the total go UNDER in 13 of its last 15 against teams with losing records. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* play on the OVER between the Tenessee Titans and the Houston Texans.

These teams are quite similar in many respects. Both have struggling starting QB’s and offenses which have yet to find their respective grooves (both are averaging just 14 PPG through the first three games). Each though has a solid ground game. Are Marcus Mariota and Brock Osweiler as bad as their early season numbers would suggest? We think the answer is a resounding “no!” These are two guys that know how to play the game and we’re expecting a break out performance from each today. Note that the Titans have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last 12 against the division, while the Texans have seen the total go OVER in seven of their last 12 in the same position. We’re looking for this one to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. Play the OVER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER between the Miami Dolphins and the Cincinnati Bengals.

Setting the scene: Both teams are 1-2 SU, meaning they’ll be desperate for a victory. It’s a short-week and with little time to prepare and re-focus, we’re expecting a “chess match,” rather than a “track meet.” 

Miami: The Dolphins are very “lucky” to be at 1-2, as they blew an 11-point lead against the Browns last week and needed OT to pull away for the 30-24 win. Cleveland had a chance to end it in regulation, but the Browns would predictably miss it. QB Ryan Tannehill was 25 of 39 for 319 yards and three TDs, to go along with one INT. Note that he would have been under 300 yards passing and have just two TD’s if not for the extra frame. Tannehill has four INT’s so far this year. The Dolphins had success on the ground as well, with 115 total team yards. Defensively the team will be playing with a chip on its shoulder after the late letdown against Browns’ third string QB Cody Kessler.

Cincinnati: The Bengals defense will also be out to atone for a horrible performance last weekend, allowing Denver QB Trevor Siemian to throw four TD’s. Andy Dalton struggled against the Broncos ferocious defense, throwing for just 206 yards, zero TD’s and one INT. He was sacked four times. Dalton has been inconsistent over two games with just two major scores, with two INT’s. Note that he’s already been sacked 12 times this year. The run game finally got untracked though, as Jeremy Hill posted 97 yards and two TD’s. The run defense was good, holding the Broncos to just 52 total rushing yards.

The bottom line: Note that the Dolphins have seen the total go UNDER the number in ten of their last 17 on the road and 15 of their last 26 when playing with six or less days rest, while the Bengals have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four as a home fav in the 7 to 10 points range and in eight of their last ten against clubs with losing records. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys.

Setting the scene: The 0-2 Bears will be desperate today as they try to avoid falling into the dreaded 0-3 hole, but Dallas can smell the blood in the water. We’re expecting the home side to win all three phases of this contest and to ultimately pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. 

Chicago: A short week isn’t going to help the Bears, who fell at home to Philadelphia 29-14 on Monday night. QB Jay Cutler was just 12 of 17 for 157 yards, no TD’s and an INT last week, and then left in the second half with a thumb injury. Cutler will be a game time decision.

Dallas: Back-to-back divisional games are out of the way and the Cowboys could easily been sitting at 2-0 right now, but a one-point loss to the Giants in Week 1 has the team batting .500. Regardless, Dak Prescott has been good under center and the run game, the defense and special teams have all been solid. 

The bottom line: The Bears have major issues at the most important position. Prescott has yet to throw a TD, but he also hasn’t thrown an INT. But the stage is now set for Prescott as we think Chicago is ripe for the picking (note that the Bears are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven following a loss of more than 14 points).  Lay the points, play on DALLAS.

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This is a 10* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Setting the scene: Pittsburgh being at 2-0 SU/ATS to open the season comes as little surprise, but Philadelphia with the identical record definitely is. The Steelers rolled over Washington 38-16 in Week 1 and then pulled away for a 24-16 victory over Cincinnati last Sunday. The Eagles routed the Browns 29-10 in Week 1 and then cruised to a 29-14 win over the Bears on Monday night.

The Steelers: Both sides of the ball have looked great. The defense has held two dangerous opponents to a combined 32 points. Not perfect, but 16 PPG average is obviously very good. Especially when the offense puts up the kind of numbers that it has. Note that the defense held the Bengals to just 34 rushing yards on the first 16 carries, while QB Andy Dalton was just 31 of 54. Dynamic WR AJ Green was held to just two catches for 38 yards.

The Eagles: Rookie QB Carson Wentz has been fantastic over the first two games and he’ll look to keep the momentum rolling. Wentz has so far gone 43 of 71 for 468 yards, three TD’s and zero INT’s. Wentz has been carrying the load offensively, as the run game has stalled out of the gates, the unit averaging fewer than four yards per carry. 

The bottom line: Wentz faces his toughest test to date. How is he going to perform if Big Ben puts some points on the board and he’s forced to play from behind? With the run game struggling, we think Wentz is going to be overwhelmed this afternoon (note that the Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five Sunday games following a Monday night appearance the week before). We think that Wentz and the home side are getting too much respect and will therefore back the red hot STEELERS to keep things rolling in Week 3.

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This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Houston Texans.

Setting the scene: Both teams are 2-0 SU/ATS and something has to give. If you asked Bill Belichick if he’d take a 2-2 record after the first four games of the season, we think he’d likely have jumped on it. The Pats won last week, but Jimmy Garoppolo injured his throwing shoulder. New England was already without the services of star TE Rob Gronkowski, who along with Garoppolo, is a game-time decision this evening. While we don’t have a ton of faith in turn-over prone Brock Osweiler, there’s no question in our minds that this is an opportunity that highly favors the Texans, a deep offensive team, backed by a superb defensive unit.

New England: If Garoppolo does play, clearly he won’t be 100%. If Gronk does play, he also clearly won’t be in “game shape” right out of the gate. How effective can third string QB Jacoby Brissett be? Whoever gets the start, New England will clearly be looking to establish itself on the ground, LaGarrette Blount had 123 yards off 29 carries last week. The Patriots will also be hoping that their defense can once again answer the call, an above average unit, which has been a strength of the team early.

Houston: Osweiler was 19 of 33 with one TD, but he also had two INT’s in last week’s 19-12 win over the Chiefs. WR DeAndre Hopkins is back and already dominating this season, he had seven catches for 113 yards and a TD last week. RB Lamar Miller was a force on the ground as well, rushing for 83 yards last Sunday, after going for 106 in Week 1. The Texans looked deadly defensively, as JJ Watt continues to make his comeback, last week he had 1.5 sacks and five tackles. So far the defense has five forced turnovers through the first two weeks.

The bottom line: Belichick is a genius and is better than any coach in all of sports history in being able to get the most out of the least, but we think this is a hole too deep for even “The Hoodie” to get out of tonight. The short week favors the healthier Texans. New England has a game against division rival Buffalo next week, a much more important contest. We think that Belichick is already looking ahead to that one, making this a fantastic situational investment. Play on HOUSTON.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Chicago Bears.

Setting the scene: On a cold blustery night in Chicago in early September, we think these offensively challenged clubs will play to a classic lower-scoring “chess match.”

The Eagles: Philadelphia and rookie QB Carson Wentz came away with a 29-10 win over the Browns in Week 1. The defense was excellent, holding Cleveland to 168 yards passing and 120 yards on the ground. Dominating the Browns’ suspect secondary is one thing, doing the same thing on the road at Soldier Field is quite another. Bears’ head coach John Fox is going to throw the kitchen sink at Wentz today.

The Bears: Chicago looked “ok” in its season opening loss to the talented Houston Texans on Sunday. QB Jay Cutler wasn’t particularly impressive though, finishing 16 of 29 for 216 yards, a TD and an INT. Note that Cutler was sacked five times and took 13 hits overall. Look for the home side to once again lean heavily on RB Jeremy Langford, who finished with 57 yards on 17 carries and a TD. Chicago’s defense catches a break obviously in facing the rookie Wentz.

The bottom line: Note that Philadelphia has interestingly seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last eight games played in the month of September, while Chicago has seen the total go UNDER the number in ten of its last 16 at home and in four of its last six when playing the role of favorite. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings.

Setting the scene: Both teams come into this important divisional matchup sitting at 1-0. The Packers battled for a 27-23 road win at Jacksonville, while the Vikes started slow and finished strong in their 25-16 win over the Titans.

Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers was 20 of 34 for 199 yards and two TD’s through the air, while also running for another one. Rodgers has struggled against the Vikes in the past, but we’re expecting that trend to end this evening. Keep your eyes on WR Jordy Nelson, who returned from injury last week to catch six passes for 32 yards and a major score. 

Minnesota: Sam Bradford steps in as starting QB in Week 2 after Shaun Hill did an adequate job managing the offense. The defense stepped up big though with two defensive TD’s. Bradford won’t be asked to do too much more than what Hill did, although we can expect to see a few more deep balls down the field this evening. 

The bottom line: We think Rodgers will be a man possessed today, looking to start the season off 2-0 on the road and grabbing the critical divisional victory, while also “breaking the curse” against Minnesota. Minnesota should only be better offensively with Bradford under center, and RB Adrian Peterson will be out to establish himself today as well. In our opinion, all the ingredients are in place for a higher-scoring shoot-out, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER between the Miami Dolphins and the New England Patriots.

Setting the scene: Both teams are coming off lower-scoring affairs. Miami wasn’t able to hold on to a late lead in Seattle, succumbing 12-10 to the Seahawks in the end, while the Pats would hold on for a 23-21 win at Arizona last Sunday night. The last time these teams played, the total also went UNDER the number. Despite all of the lower-scoring games, we think the conditions are now finally right for a bit of a shootout and we expect this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch.

Miami: It was supposed to be a new up-tempo offense for the Dolphins this year, but Seattle’s tough defensive play shutdown the unit last week (the score was 6-3 heading into the fourth quarter). In the end Miami only produced 222 yards of offense, while giving up 352. 

New England: Jimmy Garoppolo looked great against a tough Arizona defense and will look to kick this Dolphins’ unit while its down. Garoppolo won’t have Gronk in the line-up, but that hardly mattered last week either. New England won the ground battle 106-102 and the overall yardage war as well, 363-344. WR Julien Edelman had seven catches for 66 yards, but was held out of the endzone. Keep your eyes on the explosive receiver today though.

The bottom line: Note that the Dolphins have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four as a road dog of 3 1/2 to 7 points, while the Patriots have seen the total go OVER the posted number in 17 of their last 27 vs. conference opponents and in seven of their last 12 vs. the division. Everything points one way, but we’re going the other. The Dolphins will be opening up the playbook today on the offensive side of the ball after the clunker in Week 1. These are two QB’s with something to prove, all signs point to this one sneaking OVER late.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER between the New England Patriots and the Arizona Cardinals.

Setting the scene: I played this total quite early (before the announcement that TE Rob Gronkowski would not be playing in this one) and got 48. The number has since dropped, but regardless, we still love this selection as we’re expecting New England’s Top 10 defensive unit to step up in this situation and slow down this high-powered Cards offense.

New England: What more can be said about the Pats at this point which hasn’t been said by every “talking head” in the nation. If you watch the NFL on any level, then you’re surely up to speed with everything that’s going on with New England. Brady is out and Garoppolo is in. Gronk won’t be making the trip to the desert, so the Pats are going to be leaning heavily on their defense to keep them in this one today. 

Arizona: Carson Palmer put together the finest campaign of his career last year. Can the veteran duplicate that performance this season? It’s hard to imagine. Peyton Manning had one monster year in Denver before steadily regressing after that and all signs point to a similar situation (possibly) happening in Arizona. Palmer has plenty of weapons to throw to and the Cards’ defense is also expected to be in the Top 10 again.

The bottom line: Garropolo will only be asked to “manage” this game as the Pats will be using the run to set up the pass. We expect a similar game plan from the home side as well. This number is just a little bit high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Denver Broncos.

Sometimes keeping it simple is the best way to handicap a game and that's the approach we're taking in Super Bowl 50. This top rated 10* GAME OF THE MONTH selection is based on what we feel to be a couple of key factors.

Experience: Cam Newton has experience playing Football, he's been doing it his entire life at the highest level possible. From high school, to College and now as one of the elite in the NFL, there's very little at this point that the Panthers' pivot hasn't experienced in his "Football" career. However, there is one thing that he has yet to experience and that's the weight of expectations in playing in the Super Bowl. Newton has risen to every occasion to this point, but nothing can prepare him for the media blitz the next two weeks and all of the hype surrounding this game. Peyton Manning on the other hand has been here and done that, one Super Bowl victory, one Super Bowl loss. As gifted as Newton is physically, we're giving Manning the big mental edge in this matchup. This alone would be reason enough for us to make this selection, but there is one other key factor working in our favor as well. ADVANTAGE Manning.

Defense: They say defense wins championships. Both teams have excellent defenses, but we think the Broncos' unit is something special and believe it will ultimately prove to be the difference maker in Super Bowl 50. After jumping out to a 31-0 lead over the Seahawks in the divisional round, Carolina had to hold on for dear life in the second to pull off the 31-24 victory. Carolina of course looked a lot better against Carson Palmer and the Cards in the conference championship, but we think it'll once again have its hands full with Manning and company. Manning doesn't scramble like Russell Wilson, but they are both very much alike when moving the ball in no the huddle, with plenty of short crossing passes, combined with a steady dose of hard running. While they were able to get to Palmer, who is always looking to air it out down-field at almost every opportunity, the Panthers' defense has looked pretty ordinary vs. offensive units like the Seahawks and Broncos. Denver on the other hand has a defensive unit which can adapt to any style, the Broncos just shut down Tom Brady and the high flying Patriots and suffice it to say, we're expecting a similar type of smothering performance in this one as well. ADVANTAGE Broncos.

The bottom line: And that's it. Manning having more experience in these situations, combined with what we feel to be a better overall defensive unit are the reasons why we're taking the BRONCOS to win Super Bowl 50.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER between the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos.

Sometimes keeping it simple is the best way to handicap a game and that's the approach we're taking in Super Bowl 50. This top rated 10* SUPER TOTAL selection is based on what we feel to be a couple of key factors.

Best defensive units: The numbers don't lie, these teams would both finish among the league leaders on the defensive side of the ball. The Cardinals also had a great defensive unit, but it's certainly not the same calibre as the Broncos, who we feel will be able to get into the backfield and disrupt Cam Newton's rhythm throughout this game. Peyton Manning is clearly not the QB he once used to be, so there will be no big bombs down field in this one. Instead the Broncos will be running the ball and focusing on short-crossing routes.

Rest leads to rust: We've always been of the mindset that extended time off between games invariably favors the defense. We believe each team will come out a bit flat footed to start this one on the offensive side of the ball.

The bottom line: ATS statistics are pretty much useless in games like this and we won't bore you with a bunch of individual player matchups or coaching schemes, which we feel are also irrelevant in this situation. As stated off the top, we're keeping it simple in Super Bowl 50 and feel that the two factors listed above will ultimately result in a lower-scoring UNDER once the final whistle sounds.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Arizona Cardinals and the Carolina Panthers.

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

A full four quarter effort: It’s hard to imagine the Panthers jumping out to such an incredible lead against the Cards as they did vs. the Seahawks in the divisional round last week. And certainly the home side will be out to atone for its second half “brain fart,” almost letting the Seahawks claw all the way back from a 31-0 halftime deficit (note that the Panthers have seen the total go UNDER the number in six of their last seven home games where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points).

Deceivingly good defensive play: The Cardinals high-flying offense for the most part overshadowed what turned out to be one of the league’s toughest defensive units, one which finished fifth overall in allowing less than 20 points per game (note that Arizona has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of six this year vs. teams with winning records). Despite the tough second half, the Panthers looked good against Seattle overall defensively, they forced Russell Wilson to throw two INT’s and it was a unit which finished sixth in sacks during the regular season.

If history is any precedence: Then all signs point to a low-scoring battle rather than a shootout, Carolina would knock off the Cardinals 27-16 in last season’s wildcard round.

Strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Arizona has seen the total go UNDER the number in 14 of its last 21 when playing the role of underdog, while Carolina has seen the total stay below the posted number in 13 of its last 22 with a spread between +3 to -3.

The bottom line: Each team will be looking to control the clock while on offense so as to keep its counterpart off the field of play. This one has all the makings of a “chess match,” where field position will likely play a big part in the final score. Play on the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the New England Patriots.

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Quarterbacks: We love both of these veteran and proven pivots, but one is playing at the very top of his game, while the other can barely stand on his own two feet. Tom Brady threw 36 TD's to just seven INT's this season behind an offensive unit which was patched together for most of the year. That Patriots unit though is now almost back to 100% health. Peyton Manning had a tough season and missed a large chunk of it due to an injury; Manning looked particularly feeble vs. a wounded Steelers team in the divisional round, throwing for just 222 yards.

Offense vs. defense: Manning's shortcomings in the pocket were largely masked by the league's top defensive units and while the team obviously benefits from playing in front of the home town crowd, this strength is neutralized by the visitors truly dynamic offense, led by Brady, TE Rob Gronkowski and WT Julian Edelman.

Revenge: The Pats lost to the Broncos in Week 12, despite Brady tossing three TD's and with Edelman watching from the sideline with injury.

The bottom line: Brady and the Patriots are just too experienced to be overwhelmed by this situation. In the loss earlier in the season, the Broncos were able to run the ball, but we look for the visiting side to come out much more prepared today and when the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one, we do indeed look for NEW ENGLAND to comfortably pull away down the stretch for the ATS cover.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Denver Broncos.

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Rested and healthy: No need to overanalyze this one, while the health of starting QB Peyton Manning may be a bit in question, there's no doubt that both he and his team come into this one well rested and prepared after the crucial bye-week in the Wildcard round. Pittsburgh barely made it past the Bengals last week and the win cost them No. 1 receiver Antonio Brown because of a concussion. QB Ben Roethlisberger also sustained a shoulder injury.

Revenge factor: Pittsburgh just beat the Broncos 34-27 less than a month ago, there's no question that the home side will be looking to avenge that setback.

Home field advantage and superior defense: The Broncos finished amongst the league leaders in most statistical defensive categories and they'll have a major advantage of playing at home in these blustery conditions.

ATS statistics: Note that Pittsburgh is 0-3 ATS this year already after two or more consecutive victories and 3-5 ATS in its last eight off a win over a division rival, while Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last six after two weeks or more of rest.

The bottom line: The stage is set for Manning to return to form and take advantage of this banged up Steelers team, we're expecting perhaps the biggest lop-sided rout of the entire postseason to date as we simply can't see the wounded visitors matching pace down the stretch. Play on the BRONCOS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Seattle Seahawks and the Carolina Panthers.

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

The RB's are back, but…: Marshawn Lynch is back for the Seahawks, but he's hardly the focal point of this pass-heavy offense which is led by QB Russell Wilson and WR Doug Baldwin. Baldwin has 14 TD passes this year and all but two have come after Week 11. The Panthers welcome RB Jonathan Stewart, which makes QB Cam Newton even more dangerous, along with TE Greg Olsen; Newton threw 35 TD passes during the season, 20 of those 35 scores came at home.

ATS statistics: Note that Seattle has seen the total go OVER the number in five of seven vs. teams with winning records this year and in five of its last eight playoff contests, while Carolina has seen the total sail above the posted number in five of seven at home this season and in eight of 13 when playing the role of favorite.

The bottom line: The two most dynamic men on the field of play today are Wilson and Newton and there's no question in our minds that this one does indeed setup as a classic shootout between these two gunslingers. Whoever has the ball last is likely going to win this one and in our professional opinion, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots.

Both teams are banged up on the offensive side of the ball (Patriots are worrying about the health of TE Rob Gronkowski, while the Chiefs' top receiver Jeremy Maclin has sprained ankle), but the two most important men on the field are operating at 100% capacity as QB's Alex Smith and Tom Brady are set to square off in this AFC divisional matchup. Kansas City has ripped off 11 straight victories and looked downright dominant against the Texans last week. Houston is good on defense, while the Patriots are pretty mediocre. New England is 2-4 since a 10-0 start and Smith and company have to be pumped at a shot at exposing the home side even further. A bye-week couldn't come at a better time for the Pats though, they looked terrible in their loss in their regular season finale with the Dolphins, but the team definitely gets a big boost with the expected return of WR Julian Edelman. True Edelman hasn't played in over six weeks, but regardless, he demands attention from the Chiefs opportunistic defense and makes it stay honest. Note that Kansas City has seen the total go OVER the number in five of eight on the road this year and in both games in which it was an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while New England has seen the total sail above the posted number in four of its last six with two weeks of rest and in five of six this season vs. teams with winning records. We look for this one to be a classic QB battle and for this total to sail OVER the posted number as the game comes down the stretch.

AAA Sports     

This is a 10* play on the Cincinnati Bengals.

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

AJ McCarron: Obviously the QB has a big opportunity to finally break the Bengals playoff curse and since Andy Dalton went down, he has in fact been pretty sharp, completing 76 of 115 passes for 832 yards with six TD's, two INT's and a 97.4 passer rating.

DeAngelo Williams: The RB is out for the Steelers, which is massive to an offense which depends so strongly on the run to open up the passing game. The Bengals are tough against the pass AND the run, this turns the Steelers offense extremely one dimensional and thus, predictable. Note that Williams had a major impact vs. the Bengals this year, rushing for 201 total yards and two scores in the two games the team's split.

ATS statistics: Note that Pittsburgh is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight off a win vs. a division rival, while Cincinnati is a perfect 4-0 ATS this year when playing the role of underdog.

The bottom line: We can't understate how important we feel that home field advantage will be today and while we obviously wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can; play on the BENGALS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the OVER between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Houston Texans.

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Andy Reid and Alex Smith: The Chiefs started the season 1-5 due in large part to the injury to starting RB Jamaal Charles. A stout defense and the improved play from Smith turned the campaign around. Smith has 3,486 yards, 20 TD's and 7 INT's. And note, Smith would throw for more than 300 yards and had three TD's in Week 1 vs. Houston.

Brian Hoyer: Tom Brady's ex-back-up has had a tumultuous year, getting benched in the third quarter of Game 1, while also getting injured a few times. At one point in the middle of the season though he would go 4-1 and throw ten TD's and only three picks. Hoyer clearly has the trust of his team now and the Texans would rally down the stretch without their No. 1 RB as well (Arian Foster was injured early, lost for the season).

Over/Under ATS statistics: Despite these being a couple of the better defensive clubs in the league, note that this is in fact a position in which each has shown a penchant to play to the higher number as KC has seen the total go OVER the posted number in five of seven road games this season, while Houston has seen the total sail above the posted number in six of nine as an underdog and in eight of its last 14 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent.

The bottom line: The winner of this game will be the one that can move the ball and we definitely expect each team to come out firing, in our professional opinion, this number is indeed a little low. Play on the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the Kansas City Chiefs.

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Andy Reid and Alex Smith: Just like in our play on the OVER in this same contest, these two are a big reason behind our reasoning for this play as well. The Chiefs started the season 1-5 due in large part to the injury to starting RB Jamaal Charles. A stout defense and the improved play from Smith turned the campaign around. Smith has 3,486 yards, 20 TD's and 7 INT's. And note, Smith would throw for more than 300 yards and had three TD's in Week 1 vs. Houston.

ATS statistics: Note that Kansas City is 3-1 ATS this year off a win vs. a division rival and 5-3 ATS on the road, while Houston is just 2-3 ATS in its last five in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and only 2-3 ATS vs. teams with winning records.

The bottom line: Hats off to Houston for turning its season around under such trying circumstances, but there's no question that it benefitted greatly from playing in the weak division. KC made early season adjustments and comes into the playoffs as arguably the hottest team in the league. And certainly we're giving the nod to Smith over Brian Hoyer. We look for the visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night, play on the CHIEFS.

AAA Sports 

This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings.

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

- Adrian Peterson: the veteran back for the Vikings has been running roughshod over the league once again this year and that's not good news at all for Packers' backers today as Green Bay ranked 21st in the league in terms of rushing yards allowed per game.

- Dominant pass defense: the home side will clearly be leaning on QB Aaron Rodgers and his arm, but that strategy plays directly into the Vikings strength, who rank third in that regard for most of the year.

- Strong and relevant ATS statistics: note that Minnesota is 6-1 ATS on the road and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Green Bay is just 1-3 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records.

The bottom line: We think the combination of the Vikings superior defense and run will prove to be the difference in the outcome of this contest and while we clearly wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can on MINNESOTA.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

- Feeling the pressure: Carolina looked horrible in its loss to Atlanta last week, dropping the team to 14-1 and making this a must-win as far as securing home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The pressure is clearly on the home side, while Tampa Bay will have nothing to lose and would love nothing more than to play spoiler today.

- Redemption: Tampa has a shot at revenge today as well after losing an ugly game to the Panthers in Week 4.

- Motivation: Both teams are motivated, Tampa sits at 6-9 so a high playoff spot is not on the line; the Bucs will be just as hungry for a win today after dropping three straight and four of its last five.

- Doug Martin: The Bucs are 5-1 when their dynamic back has 20 or more carries and he's already proven that he can run against the Panthers, he's just one of two players to rush for more than 100 yards against Carolina all year.

- Deceptively good defense: Tampa would allow Carolina to score 37 points in Week 4, but the Bucs did manage to limit the Panthers offense to just 244 total yards, while also holding Cam Newton to his lowest passing total of the season.

- Strong and relevant ATS statistics: note that Tampa is 4-3 ATS on the road this year and 3-2 ATS vs. the division, while Carolina is 0-2 ATS its last two off a loss vs. a division rival.

The bottom line: While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we do think there are enough significant motivational, situational and ATS statistics working in the visitors favor to warrant pulling the trigger on this one; play on the BUCCANEERS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the Buffalo Bills.

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

- Motivation: While his team won't be making the postseason and the entire campaign has to be viewed as a failure, Rex Ryan still has one last shot to cement a solid victory in front of the home town crowd, while also dealing a crippling blow to his old team at the same time. Buffalo will also be eager to stick it to former QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.

- Letdown Spot: As crazy as it sounds with a playoff berth on the line, we feel this does indeed set up as a classic letdown spot for the surging Jets, who have been lucky though to win five in a row: note that New York is just 1-2 ATS already this year off a divisional contest. Also just 1-2 ATS on the road this year.

Strong and relevant ATS stats for Buffalo: Despite some injuries on both sides of the ball, the Bills have performed extremely well in this spot for bettors, going 4-3 ATS at home this year, 3-1 vs. the division and 12-8 ATS in their last 20 vs. teams with winning records.

The bottom line: We think the wheels finally fall off the bus for New York, while Buffalo seizes the moment to play spoiler and take out its frustrations after another disappointing season. Play on the BILLS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Falcons.

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

- Motivation: Who is the more motivated team today? Neither will be playing in the postseason. We think the Saints will have a letdown here after beating the Jaguars 38-27 last week though. Conversely, the Falcons will be eager to post a victory for the home town crowd and to avenge a 31-21 loss to New Orleans at the Superdome earlier in the season.

- Injury: Mark Ingram was a huge part of the Saints success in the early victory, but the power back will be sitting this one out with injury.

- Strong and relevant ATS statistics: All signs point to this one being a blowout for the home side, as note that New Orleans is just 10-15 ATS in its last 25 on the road and is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range. While note that Atlanta has excelled in this spot for bettors, going 10-5 ATS in its last 15 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent.

The bottom line: This one opened at -2 and has since gone closer to -5.5 (we have -4), but regardless, the situational/motivational edges clearly favor the home side in our opinion, lay the points with confidence on the FALCONS!

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the Cleveland Browns.

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

- Pressure: The Steelers choked last weekend in falling to lowly Baltimore and even if they win this game, they may still not make the playoffs now, as they'll need the Jets to lose in Buffalo today as well.

- Relish The Spoiler Role: While the Browns have nothing to play for today and a loss would actually help them as far as the draft is concerned, we still think Cleveland's backups come to play today; note that even though Big Ben torched the Browns through the air earlier in the year, Cleveland's run defense was stout in holding DeAngelo Williams to 54 yards on 17 carries. Cleveland's own run game has actually been impressive down the stretch as well, as Isaiah Crowell has 56 carries and 318 yards in that span (may come as a surprise to learn that Cleveland is the 19th ranked run team in the NFL and 15th in YPC).

- Strong and relevant ATS statistics: All signs do indeed point to a Steelers letdown here, as note that Pittsburgh is just 1-2 ATS vs. teams with losing records this season and just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 off a divisional contest, while Cleveland is 9-7 ATS in its last 16 in revenging a loss vs. a divisional opponent.

The bottom line: A mountain of pressure and off-field distractions for the visitors leaves the back door open just enough for the home team to sneak through; play on CLEVELAND.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Carolina Panthers and the Atlanta Falcons.

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profit over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation and scheduling. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they without question help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. And that's the case with this play, which is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS stats: note that Carolina has seen the total go OVER the number in five of seven on the road this year and in three of four vs. division opponents, while Atlanta has seen the total sail above the posted number in eight of its last 14 when trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and in six of its last ten home games when the total in the contest is set between 45.5 and 49 points. Play on the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens.

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profit over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation and scheduling. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they without question help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. And that's the case with this play, which is based on strong and relevant ATS stats, as well as a slew of injuries to key players: note that Pittsburgh is without the services of RB Le'Veon Bell still, while Baltimore has to play without starting QB Joe Flacco, starting RB Justin Forsett and top WR Steve Smith. And note that the Steelers have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of four vs. division opponents this year and in four of six on the road, while Baltimore has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of six as an underdog this season and in three of four vs. teams with winning records. Play on the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Tennessee Titans.

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profit over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation and scheduling. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they without question help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. And that's the case with this play, which is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS stats: note that Houston is just 3-4 ATS on the road this season and only 2-3 ATS in its last five off a win vs. a division rival, while Tennessee is 3-2 ATS this season as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. While we wouldn't be shocked by the outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can with the TITANS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the San Diego Chargers.

Both of these teams are poor. The Chargers are 4-10, while the Raiders are 6-8. Each will miss the postseason. This is a revenge game for the Chargers though, who will look to take out their frustrations on their division rival after falling to them, 37-29 in Week 7. San Diego's secondary hasn't been horrible and we believe will have an opportunity to make some plays against the Raiders, who oddly enough have played much better on the road than at home this year. While San Diego's season has been an overall bigger disappointment, we actually think these teams are very evenly matched, but for this pick we're going to concentrate on the starting QB's and we'll give Philip Rivers the nod in this matchup over his younger counterpart Derek Carr. Also note that from an Against The Spread stand point, they simply don't get much stronger than this as the Chargers are 4-0 ATS the last two seasons as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range and already 4-2 ATS on the road this season, while Oakland is just 1-3 ATS this season when playing the role of favorite and just 2-5 ATS in front of the home town crowd. Grab as many points as you can with SAN DIEGO.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Cleveland Browns.

Can anyone say "letdown" spot? After four straight victories, including back to back blowouts on the road, the Seahawks finally return home to play the lowly Browns, before finishing the season with games vs. St. Louis and at Arizona. Russell Wilson has been absolutely dominating over that stretch, but the big question exactly is: how has he been doing it? WR Doug Baldwin is on a torrid stretch for the Seahawks, but the team was already without the services of TE Jimmy Graham and has now also lost both of its starting RB's to injury. Cleveland actually matches up very well across the board with Seattle and we think that Johnny Manziel does indeed have more weaponry around him to utilize. Clearly Seattle has the defensive and home field advantages, but these are somewhat negated due to the above mentioned classic letdown/look ahead spot. Also note that from an Against The Spread stand point, this one sets up fantastically as well as Cleveland is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games, while Seattle is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 in the same position. This is just a few too many points, so grab as many as you can with the BROWNS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the St. Louis Rams.

Tampa still has a mathematical shot at making the playoffs, so it'll be all hands on deck today as the team looks to open up the playbook and try to bury the floundering home side early. St. Louis is just 5-8 SU and is already looking ahead to next season, but that said, clearly the Rams won't be rolling over today as both the coach's and players get ready to battle and to try and save their spot on the team moving forward. With each team desperate for a win, we look for this combined determination to translate into production on the field today. Bucs QB Jameis Winston has been sharp of late, the rookie has posted a highly respectable 97.5 QB rating over the past four weeks; note that Winston and WR's Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans will all have an opportunity to make some noise today vs. this middle of the pack Rams defensive unit. Tampa has been sharp against the run this year, but will obviously be tested by the home side's star RB in Todd Gurley, who will look to alleviate the pressure from a Rams passing attack which is clearly a weak point; that said however, it's important to note that St. Louis has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last eight home games when the total in the contest is set between 38.5 and 42 points. Also note that Tampa has seen the total sail above the posted number in three of five this year vs. teams with losing records and in four of five this season in all games where the total is set between 35.5 and 42 points. Play on the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Buffalo Bills and the Philadelphia Eagles.

When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we're expecting this total to fall below the posted number. Both teams are battling for a playoff berth. Buffalo will once again be leaning heavily on RB LeSean McCoy, he'll be looking to make a statement against his former team; note that McCoy has 93 total touches over his last four games. Tyrod Taylor will have to be wary of a pumped up Eagles secondary which came up big against Tom Brady and the Patriots on the road last weekend. And Philadelphia is going to find it much harder to move the ball today as well, the Bills own the No. 16 road defense, allowing 115 rushing yards per game. Neither team can afford to make mistakes in this suddenly very important non-conference matchup, so with each putting an added emphasis on ball control and in establishing the run while on offense, there's no question that this one does indeed set up as more of a "chess match," than a "run and gun shootout." Also note that Buffalo has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of five on the road this year, while Philadelphia has seen the total fall below the posted number in five of eight as the favorite this season and in eight of its last 11 non-conference contests. Play on the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Atlanta Falcons.

While we won't be so bold as to call for the outright, straight-up victory, we do think that the weight of an undefeated season, combined with what we believe to be a classic "look-ahead/letdown" spot, will be enough of a distraction for the home side to let the visitors slip in through the back door down the stretch. Carolina gutted out a victory over a struggling Saints team last week, but only by the skin of its teeth. Things couldn't be more dire in Atlanta, a fifth straight loss against Tampa Bay last weekend means that the team is now in a do-or-die scenario every weekend, another loss and it'll be the nail in the coffin for Atlanta. Desperation breeds motivation. After opening the season 5-0, the Falcons have imploded; but that said, we think that Matt Rayan and company have a big opportunity today, as note that New Orleans' offense looked unstoppable last week, after being held to just six points in a 24-6 setback at Houston the week before. And with two road games, before a date at home vs. Tampa Bay at the end of the season, it's not too big a stretch to picture the home side "looking past" the lowly Falcons in some small way to the final part of its schedule. Also note that Atlanta is 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season, while Carolina is just 1-2 ATS vs. division opponents this year. Grab as many points as you can with the FALCONS.

AAA Sports 

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the San Diego Chargers.

While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the visitors to keep this one more competitive than what the oddsmakers would lead us to believe. The Chargers play for pride at this point, they'll also be looking to avoid being swept by the Chiefs for a second straight season. San Diego was just embarrassed 33-3 at home to Kansas City in Week 11. Philip Rivers and the offense looked pretty horrible in last week's 17-3 loss to the Broncos, but so do many offenses obviously, Denver possesses the No. 1 overall defensive unit in the league. And on the flip-side, the Bolts did look decent defensively. And for us, there's no question that this sets up as a classic "trap game," for the suddenly surging home side, which comes in off six-straight victories, including a 34-20 decision over the Raiders last week. The Chiefs remaining schedule is extremely weak, and while surely the team will be looking to take advantage, with games at Baltimore, and at home vs. Cleveland and Oakland to finish the season, it's not too hard to imagine them "looking ahead" to what the future could hold. From a situational stand point, this one sets up perfectly for us; also note that San Diego is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 7.5 to 12 points range and 13-9 ATS in its last 22 on the road, while Kansas City is just 10-11 ATS in its last 21 at home and already 0-1 ATS this season as a home favorite in the 7.5 to 12 points range. Play on the CHARGERS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Cleveland Browns.

We think that Johnny Manziel and the home side do just enough to slow down the suddenly surging Blaine Gabbert and the San Francisco 49ers. These teams are horrible, San Francisco is ranked 32nd overall on offense this year and 28th overall on the defensive side, while Cleveland ranks 26th overall on offense and 29th overall on defense. Manziel and Gabbert are playing for their future careers, so there's still a lot at stake for each pivot, despite their team's being out of the playoff picture. This sets up as a huge letdown spot for San Francisco in our professional opinion, which got a super-human effort out of Gabbert to snap a five-game road losing streak last week. Manziel is the better QB, he'll be plenty focused after being benched for two games for disciplinary reasons, the last time he suited up he had 372 yards vs. a vastly superior Pittsburgh defense back on November 15th. Also note that Cleveland will surely be looking to take out some frustrations after suffering its worst loss last week to the Bengals since 2005. Note that San Francisco is 2-4 ATS on the road this season and just 9-10 ATS its last 19 as an underdog, while Cleveland is 6-4 ATS in its last ten non-conference contests. Lay the short points on the BROWNS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Tennessee Titans.

We are not entirely convinced of the suddenly surging Ryan Fitzpatrick and the New York Jets and think the visitors can keep this one a lot more competitive that what the oddsmaker are leading us to believe. Tennessee has the offense to match Fitzpatrick and WR's Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall. After back-to-back victories, there's no question that this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for the home side, and with games at Dallas, vs. New England and at Buffalo to end the year, there's also no doubt whatsoever that this sets up as a classic look ahead spot for the Jets as well. Two classic betting spots that are clearly working in our favor. Tennessee has been getting progressively better over the last few weeks, culminating in a break-out 42-39 victory over Jacksonville last week. Marcus Mariota and company will be looking to play spoiler down the stretch, with games at New England next week and vs. Houston and at Indianapolis to end the season. Note that Tennessee is 6-4 ATS in its last ten as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while New York is just 4-5 ATS as a favorite this season and already 0-1 ATS after two or more consecutive SU victories. Play on the TITANS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the New Orleans Saints.

While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we do think the home side keeps this one competitive enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Carolina is primed for a letdown here after hammering the Dallas Cowboys 33-14 on Thanksgiving Day. Conversely, with rumors now swirling around the Super Dome that head coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees could be hurting the team, there's no question that the home side comes in desperate, hungry and with a chip on its shoulder, ready to play spoiler and prove the nay-sayers wrong. Indeed, do you think Brees has something to prove today? Last week's listless 24-6 loss to the Texans was the first time in 45 games that the veteran had failed to find the end zone. Note that Carolina is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven "dome" games, while New Orleans is already 3-0 ATS this year in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, 5-2 ATS in its last seven after two or more consecutive losses and 8-6 ATS in its last 14 when playing the role of underdog. Play on NEW ORLEANS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo is 5-6 and will look to bounce back here off a 30-22 loss to Kansas City last week, while Houston is surging, winner of four straight, it's now at 6-5. Most of those wins came at home though against some pretty weak competition and now the team hits the road to play in frigid Buffalo in the middle of December. Suffice it to say, as primarily a situationally based handicapping service, these are exactly the types of contests that we're constantly on the look out for. This is a do-or-die game for Buffalo, another loss will put the final nail in the coffin for its season, but a victory still gives Rex Ryan some hope. The Texans have been dominating defensively, but the offense is definitely no "World Beater," which means that the Bills beleaguered defensive unit will have a big opportunity at some redemption today (despite being banged up). Texans' QB Brian Hoyer isn't anything to write home about, expect the home side to isolate DeAndre Hopkins and to turn the visitors' already one dimensional offense, even more so. We're not saying this is going to be easy, obviously Houston's defense is one of the best in the league and Bills' QB Tyrod Taylor will have to be on top of his game, but we simply feel that the situation clearly favors the hungry home side. Also note that Houston is just 2-3 ATS on the road this year and 10-14 ATS in its last 24 when playing the role of underdog, while Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after two or more consecutive losses and 12-8 ATS in its last 20 home games. Play on the BILLS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Atlanta Falcons.

After dropping four in a row, this is a must win game for the Atlanta Falcons if they hope to keep their playoff hopes alive. Tampa is 5-6 and just beat the Falcons last month, making this an immediate revenge scenario which we can take advantage of today as well. With two dates vs. 11-0 Carolina still on the horizon, as well as arch rival New Orleans, which has already beaten the Falcons once this year, there's no question that the visitors will be risking life and limb to try and secure a victory today. We didn't jump on the Atlanta bandwagon when it started 5-0 and we also don't think the team is as bad as it looks right now after losing five of its last six. The situational factors working in favor of the Falcons are enormous here. Also note that from an ATS trend based stand point, they simply don't get much stronger than this as Atlanta is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and already 3-0 ATS this season when playing the role of underdog, while Tampa is just 2-3 ATS at home this season. Grab as many points as you can with ATLANTA.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the OVER between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions.

When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we look for this total to eclipse the posted number. Green Bay jumped out to a 6-0 start to the season, but the team has now lost four of its last five since its bye week. One of those losses included a listless Thanksgiving Day setback to these very Detroit Lions. Suffice it to say, after a couple of sub-par outings and because of the earlier loss to Detroit, we expect Packers QB' Aaron Rodgers to finally be on top of his game today. The offense is loaded with talent, but has been stalled the last few games. From a motivational stand point, they don't get much better for Green Bay and its clearly under-performing offensive unit. The Lions won't be rolling over and actually come into this contest as one of the hottest teams in the league after winning three straight. QB Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson and company are firing on all cylinders and will be pushing the pace of this game from the outset as they look to take advantage of familiar surroundings. Note that Green Bay has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last ten in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and in three of its last four "dome" games, while Detroit has seen the total sail above the posted number in four of six at home this season and in two of its last three vs. teams with winning records. Play on the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the San Francisco 49ers.

While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset in this one, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the home side to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. It's not too hard to imagine the streaking Cardinals coming into this one a bit complacent as well after winning four straight. To win this game outright, the 49ers will be looking to create turnovers, so far the team has only forced eight total. Note though that San Francisco has only committed nine total turnovers itself, so this is a team which knows how to protect the ball. This is also a big time revenge game for the 49ers after they were annihilated 47-7 in the first meeting between the teams. Note that the Cards defense is banged up, especially on the line as starter Frostee Rucker and backup Cory Redding will both be sitting. Ed Stinson is injured as well. CB Patrick Peterson is also injured. Note that Arizona is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a favorite in the 3.5 to 11.5 points range, while San Francisco is already 3-2 ATS at home this season. We think the Cards come in a bit complacent and come out a bit flat, leaving the back door open just enough for the 49'ERS to sneak through.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the New Orleans Saints.

While we obviously wouldn't be shocked by the minor outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the visitors to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and sneak in through the back door down the stretch. The Saints are horrible on the defensive side of the ball, ranking dead last in many statistical categories, but the unit catches a major break this week in having to face the anemic Texans offense. Offensively though, Drew Brees and New Orleans are firing on all cylinders and will be looking to take advantage of a Texans defense which we think can best be described as: "inconsistent." Brees ranks first in completion percentage this season, fifth in QB rating and fifth in yards per attempt when facing pressure. Note that New Orleans is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog and 2-0 ATS the last two season's following its bye week, while Houston is 8-9 ATS in its last 17 as a favorite and just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 non-conference contests. Play on the SAINTS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the Atlanta Falcons.

When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we look for the home side to find a way to get the job done. The 7-3 Vikings vs. the 6-4 Falcons. The Vikes offense has stalled, RB Adrian Peterson has been awesome this year, but Teddy Bridgewater has just two TD passes over his last three games. Defensively the visitors have been good, allowing 18.4 points on 334.9 yards per game, but the Vikes now face a desperate Falcons team which has lost four of its last five. QB Matt Ryan continues to be a bright spot, he's posted six TD passes in his last three games. Defensively the team allows 21.4 points off 335.7 yards per game average. Atlanta is on the cusp, its last three losses have been decided by three points or less. Minnesota can only go so far as its QB will take it and Bridgewater and company looked pretty horrible at home vs. the Packers last week. The FALCONS are the better overall team in this one and they are playing with desperation; that's good enough for us.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the Green Bay Packers.

We like the Packers to build off their best overall performance in weeks and bury the back-and-forth Bears once and for all on Thursday night. The 7-3 Packers ended a three-game slide with a big win over the Vikings last week; all three phases looked sharp, including QB Aaron Rodgers. The last time these team's met, note that Green Bay would pull away for the 31-23 victory in Week 1. Green Bay RB Eddie Lacy is coming off his best game of the season, breaking the 100 yard mark for the first time in 2015. Chicago gets back RB Matt Forte and WR Alshon Jeffrey, but the team is coming off a heartbreaking 17-15 loss to the Broncos and with a chance to put the final nail in the coffin, we love the home side to kick the Bears while they're down. Chicago though is dealing with many other injuries, up and down the line and on both sides of the ball, while the Packers come into this one healthier than they've been all year. Chicago ranks 22nd in the league in rushing the QB, suffice it to say, we think Rodgers will put up some huge numbers today. Note that the Bears are just 4-8 ATS in their last 12 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while the Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a home favorite of 7.5 to ten points and 5-2 ATS off a win vs. a division rival. A focused GREEN BAY team is the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys.

Tony Romo and the Cowboys are coming off a solid 24-17 win over the Dolphins and we believe they'll find a way to get the job done at the end of the night vs. the 10-0 Panthers. This is a do-or-die game for Dallas, who basically needs to win out to secure a spot in the playoffs. This is definitely not do-or-die for Carolina though, the team is already assured a playoff spot and it's not too hard to imagine the visitors finally having a letdown on the short-week. This is a fantastic situational factor that we're taking advantage of here and one which we believe the oddsmakers are not properly taking into account. Dallas possesses what many believe to be the best offensive line in the league and it also has the eighth-ranked rush unit. And now Romo is back. And the Cowboys have the advantage of playing at home as well. Additionally, it's not too hard to imagine the Panthers "looking ahead" to their game vs. division rival New Orleans next week. Desperation vs. contentedness. In our opinion, all signs do indeed point to DALLAS as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports 

This is a 10* play on the OVER between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Detroit Lions.

Both teams are having disappointing seasons, but the difference between the two is that despite playing horrible, the Eagles still have a shot because of their weak division. After a 1-7 start, the Lions have now won two straight, QB Matt Stafford is on pace to tie a career-high with INT's, but he has none over the last two outings. And now Stafford and the ever improving offense get to go up against an Eagles defense that just allowed 45 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Philadelphia ranks 28th against the rush, so this is a big opportunity for the Lions run unit to put up some decent numbers. Stafford has been getting fantastic protection and will be able to take advantage of an Eagles' secondary that's prone to giving up the big play. But as mentioned off the top, Philadelphia still has a shot at a postseason berth, the team can't afford to drop anymore though obviously, it's put up or shut up for Chip Kelly and his vaunted offensive schemes. Detroit will surely have its hands full with the Eagles run unit today, Philadelphia ranks 11th in the league on the ground, while Detroit ranks 24th against it. And that's good news for probable starting QB Mark Sanchez, who had three INT's in last week's blowout loss. Detroit lacks playmakers on the backend, so Sanchez (or Bradford), will also have the green light to go deep today. Note that Philadelphia has seen the total go OVER the number in 11 of its last 16 vs. teams with losing records and in its last three road games where the total is between 42.5 and 45.5 points. And note that Detroit has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 12 of its last 21 at home and in two of its last three home games where the total is between 42.5 and 45.5 points. These are two teams dedicated in getting their offenses untracked, in our professional opinion all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings.

When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we look for this total to eclipse the posted number. The 6-3 Packers will look to slow down the surging 7-2 Vikings and take control of the division again after a lacklustre couple of weeks. That said, Minnesota can surely smell the blood in the water and will be looking to kick the visitors while they're down. The Vikes have won five straight behind the second best run unit in the entire league and an ever improving second-year QB in Teddy Bridgewater. Last week Adrian Peterson had 203 rushing yards and a score in his team's 30-14 win over Oakland, upping his total for the season to 961 yards. And that's bad news for a Packers defense which is ranked No. 23 against the run. But you can never count out the Packers obviously, QB Aaron Rodgers is 10-4 vs. the Vikes lifetime, completing 71.2 percent of his passes for 3,490 yards, 31 TD's to four INT's, and a 119.0 passer rating which is highest vs. any division rival. The Green Bay run unit, which has struggled of late, has a big opportunity to get untracked as well as the Vikes are just No. 15 in the league against the run. Both teams have something to prove today and we believe this will translate into production on the field; and note that the Packers have seen the total go OVER the number in 13 of their last 21 on the road, in seven of their last 11 as an underdog and in nine of their last 14 vs. division opponents, while Minnesota has seen the total sail above the posted number in nine of its last 15 vs. the division. In our professional opinion, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the Atlanta Falcons

We think the bye week was the best thing that could have happened for the Falcons and look for them to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. After opening the season at 5-0, Atlanta has gone on to lose three of its last four, but comes out of its break rested and ready to take on a Colts team which will be without its starting QB. Indianapolis beat the Broncos before its bye week, but learned that Andrew Luck was lost to a lacerated kidney; note only that but the Colts also lost impressive rookie DE Henry Anderson for the season with an ACL tear. The Falcons though come back a lot healthier, the expected return of WR Leonard Hankerson will provide an immediate spark. Conversely, the Colts are once again forced to turn to 40-year old backup QB Matt Hasselbeck again this week, and while he's 2-0 in that role so far this year, he now faces his stiffest test, as note that those two victories came against struggling teams with losing records. And note that Indianapolis is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games, while Atlanta is 6-5 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU losses. Play on the FALCONS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Chicago Bears.

It's true that Denver has played well despite the fact that Peyton Manning hasn't been at his best, but with their starting QB sitting this one out, we believe that his backup, Brock Osweiler, who is making his first career start, will stumble terribly. Manning has been diagnosed with a torn plantar fascia, which resulted in a 29-13 loss to KC last week. The problem for Osweiler is that the Broncos have no running game whatsoever, the unit is ranked 29th in the league in averaging 86 yards and has totalled 104 in the losses to the Colts and Chiefs. And now Denver faces a surging 4-5 Chicago team which is looking for its first three-game win streak in two seasons. The Bears also have an advantage with head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase, both who were together in Denver the last four seasons. Chicago's defense has looked much improved, after allowing an average of 35 points during an 0-3 start, the Bears are yielding just 21.5 since. QB Jay Cutler threw for three TD's last week and no INT's, while rookie Jeremy Langford has 145 rushing yards, caught ten passes for 179 yards and scored three TD's while replacing RB Matt Forte. Denver's vaunted defensive unit is still banged up, DeMarcus Ware is expected to sit this one out as well; note that the Broncos have been gashed for 668 yards, including 226 on the ground, over the last two games. We're expecting a rout from start to finish, play on CHICAGO.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Cincinnati Bengals.

We believe the 8-0 Bengals come in focused on the task at hand and look for the team to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. It's true that the Texans still have a shot in the horrible AFC South race, trailing the Colts by just a half-game, but don't be mistaken, this is a horrible team. Cincinnati is too deep and too talented for the banged up visitors to compete with for a full four quarters; note that the Bengals dominate on both sides of the ball, averaging 28.6 PPG, they also possess the No. 4 ranked scoring defense, a unit which has allowed 20 total points in their last two contests. Texans' QB Brian Hoyer is one of the most inconsistent pivots in recent history and is completely outclassed in every department by his counterpart Andy Dalton today. Houston is completely one dimensional on offense as well as the running game is in shambles after the team lost RB Arian Foster for the season to injury, which puts added pressure onto an already swamped Hoyer. Ultimately we look for Dalton to shred this suspect Texans secondary and without enough weapons to match pace, all signs do indeed point to a long night for the visitors. Play on the BENGALS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on the Kansas City Chiefs.

We played this one the moment the lines first came out and got +7.5 and it's since dropped, but regardless, we love the visitors to take this one down to the wire and to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points they've been afforded. This is a revenge game for Kansas City after it let a late lead slip away in a 31-24 setback to the Broncos back in Week 2. And now it appears that the two teams are indeed moving in opposite directions, as KC has won two straight, while the injured and aging Broncos are coming off their first loss of the season. The reason Denver has been so good is because of its defense, as QB Peyton Manning has thrown a league-high 13 INT's as part of an offense which is ranked 22nd in the NFL based on yards per game. And now Denver's vaunted defensive unit comes into this one severely injured, as key components Aqib Talib and LB DeMarcus Ware are both sidelined. And that's good news for the Chiefs offensive unit, QB Alex Smith has 4 TD passes in his last two games, while RB Charcandrick West has a combined 207 yards on the ground with two TD's. Note that Kansas City is 7-6 ATS in its last 13 vs. division opponents and 12-9 ATS in its last 21 on the road, while Denver is 1-3 ATS in its last four following a loss after giving up 27 points or more. Play on the CHIEFS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Baltimore Ravens.

We expect this total to fall below the posted number once the final horn sounds. Baltimore is coming out of its bye week and has just two wins on the season and is still making noise that it can make a legitimate playoff run. The Ravens offense though has been pretty bad this year, Joe Flacco will now have to throw to someone other than Steve Smith Sr. after the wideout tore his Achilles two weeks ago vs. the Chargers. Have you ever even heard of Kamar Aiken or Chris Givens? Me neither. Jacksonville has sure looked a lot better than last season's team, but that's not saying much. The Jaguars have been historically brutal on the road and have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last five as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range. And note that Baltimore has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last seven as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Play on the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the UNDER between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets.

This is a big game and we're expecting a hard-fought, low-scoring battle between these divisional foes. This is a fight for second place in the division behind the Patriots. Both teams have looked great one week, only to look brutal in the next. The Bills' strength was supposed to be its defense this season, but so far that's not been the case, after dominating most defensive categories a year ago, Buffalo ranks in the middle of the pack in 2015/16. The damage has come through the air though, as the Bills are ranked 5th in the league in stopping the run, so this negates the Jets' offensive strength in RB Chris Ivory. Buffalo's defensive unit has to be liking its chances today though against veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. New York owns one of the best overall defensive units in the league, both against the run and the pass. Derrelle Revis and company will have no problem shutting down the Bills' biggest offensive threat in WR Sammy Watkins, making a one-dimensional Buffalo offense, even more so. Note that the Bills have seen the total go UNDER the number in six of its last nine road games where the total is set between 42.5 and 45 points, while the Jets have seen the total dip below the posted number in 12 of their last 22 in front of the home town crowd. Play on the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys.

When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we look for this total to eclipse the posted number. Both teams have losing records, but each still has a shot at making a postseason push with a victory today. Dallas can't afford to drop to 2-6, a loss this evening and the team can start planning for next season. Look for the home side to lean heavily on RB Darren McFadden as to alleviate some of the pressure off of Matt Cassel. The Eagles will be looking to revenge a 20-10 Week 2 loss in Philadelphia and come into this one fresh off their bye week. Philadelphia is 3-4 and can't afford to drop another one either, lucky to be in such a horrible division. Note that Philadelphia has seen the total go OVER the number in nine of its last 13 vs. teams with losing records and in ten of its last 19 on the road, while Dallas has seen the total sail above the posted number in eight of its last 14 vs. teams with losing records and in eight of its last 15 vs. division opponents. Ultimately we feel that the overall importance of this game will make each team open up the playbook, which will result in offensive production; play on the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Atlanta Falcons and the San Francisco 49ers.

When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Both teams have struggled with offensive consistency the last few games, which means both will be playing with an added incentive on that side of the ball today. San Francisco is just 2-6 on the season and is averaging just 13.6 PPG. Because of that, the team finally made the move to bench QB Colin Kaepernick and instead go with Blaine Gabbert, who will be given one more chance to revive his career; this is a great situational factor that we can take advantage of, Gabbert was horrible in Jacksonville, but he's a true pocket passer and will be taking shots down field from start to finish. Defensively San Francisco has been a mess all year, the unit is allowing 25.9 points and 403.8 yards per game. The 6-2 Falcons will look to take advantage and bounce back from a poor home loss to the Buccaneers. Despite a couple of shaky performances, Atlanta is averaging 26.6 points and 414.8 yards per game. Juilo Jones, Devonta Freeman and Matt Ryan are poised for a big day vs. this vanilla defense. Note that Atlanta has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four on the road when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 45 points and in seven of its last ten as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. And note that the 49ers have seen the total sail above the posted number in two of three already this season after two or more consecutive SU losses and in eight of their last 15 when playing the role of underdog. Play on the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the St. Louis Rams and the Minnesota Vikings.

Neither of these teams has played to many high-scoring affairs yet this season, but we now feel that the conditions are right for a higher-scoring shootout and expect this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The Rams are 4-3 and sit in second in the NFC West, while the Vikings are 5-2 and sitting in second in the NFC North. Both teams will be leaving everything they have on the field to secure another precious victory and we ultimately feel that this focus will translate into offensive production. A couple of the league's best RB's face off today, we can expect to see a lot of the Rams' Todd Gurley and of the Vikings' Adrian Peterson. Minnesota has an impressive offense, which is 3-0 at home; note that the Vikes have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in their last six home games when the total in the contest is between 35.5 and 42 points, while St. Louis has seen the total sail above the posted number in two of three when playing the role of underdog already this season. Play on the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Washington Redskins.

While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the visitors to keep this one closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Obviously we won't try to convince you that the Redskins are a great team which has gotten some unlucky breaks and that the Patriots are over-rated, we simply feel this is a great spot bet: after lowly Washington, New England has a prime-time game in New York next week, followed by a divisional contest vs. Buffalo and then a big game in Denver the week after that. It's not too hard to imagine the home side finally having a small mental letdown today as it looks ahead to the more gruelling part of its schedule (and note that the Patriots are 1-2 ATS their last three as a home favorite in the 10.5 to 14 points range). Washington on the other hand is coming out of its bye week focused on the task at hand and with some momentum of its own after beating Tampa Bay 31-30 in its last outing. Play on the REDSKINS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Cleveland Browns.

When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we're expecting the visitors to keep this one close enough to sneak in through the backdoor with the large spread they've been afforded. Note, not since 1990, before any of its current players were even born, has Cincinnati covered ATS while being favored by 11 points or more. QB Andy Dalton and the Bengals have looked great to this point, but this one has "letdown" written all over it. Note that the Bengals run game is averaging just 3.9 YPC with Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. Josh McCown or Johnny Manziel, as primarily a situationally based handicapping service, it doesn't matter who is under center for Cleveland as far as we're concerned tonight, it's the same thing. Note though that the Browns have dominated in this spot for bettors for quite some time, going 7-3 ATS in their last ten as road underdogs and 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 as dogs to the Bengals. Cincinnati has been decent against the run, but has injury concerns in its front seven; the pass defense has been poor this year, Cleveland TE Gary Barnridge and WR Travis Benjamin will have some opportunities to make some plays today. Grab as many points as you can with the BROWNS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Indianapolis Colts.

We think the visitors will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and while we wouldn't be completely shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Carolina is the hottest team in the league, but enters its toughest part of the schedule right now, with a game vs. the Packers next week. Conversely, the Colts are in trouble at 3-4 and desperately need a win to keep pace for a playoff spot. And with a date vs. the red hot Broncos next week, Indianapolis can ill afford to "look past" Carolina in this spot. Take a look at Carolina's victories thus far: Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Seattle and Philadelphia. Winning in the NFL is never easy, but none of the teams that the Panthers have beaten this year have played with any type of consistency from week to week whatsoever. Indianapolis was predicted by many to surpass the Patriots this year, but despite its 3-4 start, this is still a very good team and we think the real Andrew Luck and company finally show up tonight. If the Colts win this game outright and parlay that momentum to another victory next week at home vs. Denver, suddenly the team is in the drivers seat heading into its bye week. Conversely, if the Panthers lose tonight, it's certainly not a "do-or-die" scenario, they'll be able to move on and prepare for Green Bay next week without any worries or concerns. Desperation vs. contentedness. Note that Indianapolis is 6-4 ATS in its last ten as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, while Carolina is 5-6 ATS its last 11 as a favorite in the same points range. Play on the COLTS.

AAA Sports

WRONG PLAY SELECTED: This is a play on the OVER, we have made a mistake on the entry. Our sincere apologies for any mix-ups. Once again, this is a play on the OVER:

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Green Bay Packers and the Denver Broncos.

When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we're expecting this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Some have dubbed this the "biggest" game of the NFL regular season so far, as these team's bring a combined 12-0 record into this one. Green Bay is getting the job done on both sides of the ball, it has the No. 1 scoring defense in the league to this point. QB Aaron Rodgers already has 15 TD's to just two INT's; note that Rodgers has been particularly dominant in this spot throughout his career, winning all six of his games by at least seven points when coming off his bye-week. Denver ranks No. 2 in the NFL in points allowed and has created the most turnovers, a unit which has helped mask Peyton Manning's rather lacklustre campaign to date, but the bottom line is that no QB in league history has begun a season 6-0 as many times as the Bronco's pivot has. Denver's run game has been atrocious, ranking second to last in that department, so we can expect Manning to take some shots downfield from start to finish. We believe that this is a time for the offenses to shine, a non-conference contest, with no pressure on either team is the perfect spot for a defensive letdown. Note that Green Bay has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five as a road fav of three points or less, while Denver has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 10 of its last 11 in weeks 5 through 9. Play on the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the UNDER between the Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans.

There's no need to overanalyze this one, with Tennessee Titans' starting QB Marcus Mariota sitting this one due to injury, we're expecting a very low-scoring game as each of these AFC South rivals focuses on the ground game. Houston returns home after two weeks on the road, looking to get back on track after a brutal road loss to the Fish. A date vs. the Titans, who have lost five straight, including last week's 10-9 setback to the Falcons, is likely just what the doctor ordered for the struggling home side to get untracked. The Titans offense would struggle with Zach Mettenberger under center last week, managing just nine points after Mariota rolled his ankle. And that's good news for a Texans defensive unit which is ranked 28th in scoring defense and 30th in turnovers forced. Houston has been equally inept on the offensive side of the ball though, slow starts have led to two blowout losses in the past four outings and with starting RB Arian Foster lost for the rest of the season due to injury, we expect QB Brian Hoyer to endure another long day. Unbelievably, the 1-5 Titans and the 2-5 Texans are still contenders for the AFC South due to the Colts own issues. Note that Tennessee has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last eight as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, while Houston has seen the total stay below the posted number in 12 of its last 22 where the total in the game is set between 42.5 and 45 points. Play on the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the Miami Dolphins and the New England Patriots.

The Patriots are 6-0 and will likely be undefeated after this contest if they're able to concentrate on the task at hand. The Dolphins are surging under new head coach Dan Campbell and will be looking for the upset. Both teams are playing well right now, but on the short week we're expecting these heated division rivals to play to more of a "chess match" style of game and ultimately look for this total to sneak below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. Miami has looked better on both sides of the ball, most notably though on the defines where its vaunted front has produced ten sacks in the past two games. Of course, no one is better at picking up the rush than Tom Brady, so we can expect a lot of shorter crossing routes from the home side while on offense today. Ryan Tannehill has looked great the last two weeks for Miami, but this prime-time game in this incredibly tough atmosphere now has "letdown" written all over it. With an added emphasis put on ball and clock control in this big divisional game on the short week, there's no question that from a situational stand point, all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Baltimore Ravens.

AAA Sports will have their full analysis for this selection posted shortly. No later than 6 hours before game time.

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Raiders and the Chargers.

Oakland started the season strong, but has now lost two straight. The Chargers also started the season on a high note but have since regressed. This is a situational factor that we'll look to take advantage of today as we expect each of these hungry sides to open up the playbook this afternoon and look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Oakland has to be feeling encouraged though after almost beating the Broncos in a 16-10 setback in Week 5. San Diego has nothing to hang its head about either as it's coming off a hard-fought 27-20 setback at Green Bay last Sunday. Note that Oakland has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU losses, while San Diego has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last six as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. Play on the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between the Cleveland Browns and the St. Louis Rams.

When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we look for this total to sneak below the posted number. St. Louis comes in rested here, it's interesting to note that it's lost outright each of the last four times it's been the favorite, while Cleveland is 6-1 ATS in it last seven as an underdog. Both teams have been playing to some pretty high-scoring affairs this year, but we feel that the conditions are now finally right for a lower-scoring defensive battle. Cleveland should be extra motivated today after the way it lost to Denver last week, falling 26-23 in OT; there were definitely some positives to take away as the Browns actually trailed 10-0 at the half. That said, it's not too hard to imagine Cleveland having a letdown here after playing to three three-point games in a row. The Rams quickly fell behind 14-0 to the Packers two weeks ago, but would then finish the rest of the game 10-10; note though that St. Louis would actually outrush the Pack 191-86, keep your eyes on rookie RB Todd Gurley who racked up 159 yards in the setback. QB Nick Foles continues to struggle though, his four INT's were just too much for the Rams to overcome in the end. Suffice it to say, we can fully expect the home side to concentrate on the run today as to alleviate some of the pressure from their beleaguered pivot (and note, the Browns are ranked dead last in the league vs. the run this year). Note that Cleveland has seen the total go UNDER the number in nine of its last 14 when playing against a team with a losing record, while St. Louis has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last 11 when playing the role of favorite. All signs point to a classic, low-scoring "chess match" of a battle, play on the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions.

Detroit is just 1-5, thanks in large part to a minus-8 turnover margin and 18 turnovers. That said, the Lions are coming off their best effort of the season and are loaded with star-quality talent; also note that Detroit has won two of the last three vs. the Vikes. Minnesota though will be looking to take advantage of a     Lions' defensive unit which is allowing opponents to complete a whopping 73.7 percent of their passes; that's a recipe for disaster for the home side as Minnesota can also pound the ball with star RB Adrian Peterson, suffice it to say we're expecting Detroit's defense to once again have its hands full today. But as mentioned off the top, clearly the Lions won't just be rolling over here, they play with revenge after a 26-16 loss to the Vikes at TCF Bank Stadium in Week 2; also note that Lions' star receiver Calvin Johnson has returned to form of late, exploding for 166 yards on six catches last week. We feel that the stage is definitely set for some offensive fireworks this afternoon; note that Minnesota has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last 11 vs. teams with losing records, while Detroit has seen the total sail above the posted number in six of its last ten in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. Play on the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Steelers have done extremely well without Ben Roethlisberger under center, but the team now clearly faces its toughest challenge thus far in facing this desperate home side and in what is considered one of the toughest venues in the league to play in. Pittsburgh is 4-2. Surprising because Roethlisberger has been out with injury since Week 2. Backup Mike Vick was injured last week as well, which means that Landry Jones is likely to get his very first start today. NOTE: There is a chance that Roethlisberger will get the nod in this one, head coach Mike Tomlin is waiting an hour or so before game time to 100% confirm this, but if he is playing, we still love this selection. Whether it's Jones, Vick or a less than 100% Roethlisberger under center, we expect whoever it is to have his hands full today. So far the Steelers defense has been a strength for the team, looking sharp in slowing down gunslingers in Philip Rivers and Carson Palmer the past two weeks respectively. On the other side of the field, the Chiefs are 1-5. Also surprising considering the way the team looked in the preseason (4-0), but note, the offense took a major hit with the loss of RB Jamaal Charles last week. Note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go UNDER the number in all three of its road contests this year and in 12 of its last 18 in the same position over the last three, while KC has seen the total dip below the posted number in 11 of its last 18 in front of the home town crowd and in 13 of its last 23 when playing the role of favorite. All signs do indeed point to a low-scoring UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Steelers have done extremely well without Ben Roethlisberger under center, but the team now clearly faces its toughest challenge thus far in facing this desperate home side and in what is considered one of the toughest venues in the league to play in. Pittsburgh is 4-2. Surprising because Roethlisberger has been out with injury since Week 2. Backup Mike Vick was injured last week as well, which means that Landry Jones is likely to get his very first start today. NOTE: There is a chance that Roethlisberger will get the nod in this one, head coach Mike Tomlin is waiting an hour or so before game time to 100% confirm this, but if he is playing, we still love this selection. Whether it's Jones, Vick or a less than 100% Roethlisberger under center, we expect whoever it is to have his hands full today. So far the Steelers defense has been a strength for the team, looking sharp in slowing down gunslingers in Philip Rivers and Carson Palmer the past two weeks respectively, but that's about to change this week. On the other side of the field, the Chiefs are 1-5. Also surprising considering the way the team looked in the preseason (4-0), but note, the offense took a major hit with the loss of RB Jamaal Charles last week. Obviously that's not a good thing, but with the return of top WR Jeremy Maclin, we're looking for the struggling Alex Smith to have a big day today as we finally expect head coach Andy Reid to give his veteran pivot the green light to air things out. Also note, it's not too hard to imagine the Steelers getting caught "looking ahead" to their matchup at home vs. division leading Cincinnati next week, while conversely, both Smith and Reid are playing for their future careers today. From a situational standpoint, they don't get much stronger than this,and it's the reason why this play has been stamped with "RD" status, play on the CHIEFS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers.

A couple of crummy teams from a crummy division get together on Thursday night and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, we're expecting this total to stay below the posted number. It's do or die for Seattle now, a team which many projected making it back to the Super Bowl will have to start planning for next season with another loss. Note that only 14 of 168 teams to start 2-4 have ever even reached the playoffs, with none ever making it to the Super Bowl. Amazingly, the Seahawks have led in the fourth quarter of all four of their losses, their 55 points allowed in the final frame are the fourth most in the league: ''It's frustrating only because I know we're not playing up to our potential,'' Seattle offensive tackle Russell Okung said yesterday. ''We're going to make our mistakes, but the best thing we've done in the past is overcome them. We haven't done that yet, but we will.'' The Seahawks have won three straight in this series, but the 49ers won't be rolling over today after ending a four game losing streak with a 25-20 win over the Ravens on Sunday: "I think we're a 2-4 football team that needs to get some more wins," quarterback Colin Kaepernick said. "We need this win on Thursday." Easier said than done if you're a 49ers fan though obviously, Kaepernick has been horrible this year, completing just 53 percent of his passes with three TD's, nine INT's while also being sacked 18 times to go along with a 54.1 rating while posting a 1-5 record as a starter vs. the Seahawks. We expect each team to establish the run today, the Seahawks just allowed a season-high 135 rushing yards to Carolina last week, leaving the door open for San Francisco RB Carlos Hyde to return to form, while Seattle will be leaning heavily on Marshawn Lynch, who has averaged 4.8 yards per carry while gaining 304 yards in his last three vs. San Francisco. Note that Seattle has seen the total go UNDER the number in its last two after two or more consecutive losses and in seven of its last 12 vs. teams with losing records, while San Francisco has seen the total stay below the posted number in 13 of its last 19 in front of the home town crowd and in eight of its last 14 vs. division opponents. Play on the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on the Indianapolis Colts.

Andrew Luck is back and he'll look to keep the momentum rolling for an Indianapolis team which has won two in a row in his absence. Matt Hasselbeck and the offense looked great last week vs. the Texans and we expect that chemistry to be carried over with the team's true leader under center. Remember, Luck has been the top fantasy QB the last three years and while that's not been the case so far this season, we're expecting the hungry pivot to be at his best this evening. Every facet of Indianapolis' game has improved after a couple of duds to open the season and we think that the oddsmakers are slow in recognizing that fact, instead everyone is focusing on Luck and the QB issues. But with the rest of the team coming together, the table is now finally set for Luck to dominate. What more can be said about the Patriots which hasn't literally been said a thousand times at this point. The team comes out of its bye week ready to continue the onslaught, but we feel that rest and complacency are a legitimate factor to open this game, issues which we believe will leave the back door open wide enough for the home side to sneak in through down the stretch. Note that the Patriots are in fact just 8-11 ATS in their last 19 on the road, while the Colts are 12-7 ATS in their last 19 in front of the home town crowd and 9-5 ATS in their last 14 off a win vs. a division rival. While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we do definitely expect this one to be a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and will ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can with INDIANAPOLIS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Minnesota Vikings.

For a couple of different situational reasons, we expect this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The first reason is because the Chiefs' starting RB Jamaal Charles has been lost for the rest of the season, meaning that Alex Smith and Andy Reid will be forced to open up the playbook and consistently take shots down the field. Smith finally hit Jeremy Maclin to break the wideout shutout streak, we're expecting the veteran to have a productive afternoon despite scuffling by going 16 of 30 for a season-low 181 yards last week. Minnesota though could obviously care less about the Chiefs' issues, it comes out of its bye well rested and ready take full advantage of the situation. This is the second reason why we feel the total will soar above the number. Teddy Bridgewater will definitely have some opportunities today, Kansas City has struggled both against the run and the pass. One other player to keep your eyes on today is Vikes' RB Adrian Peterson who has 341 yards over his last three games. Note that Kansas City has seen the total go OVER the number in all three road games so far this season, while Minnesota has seen the total sail above the posted number in two of its last three as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. In our professional opinion, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Washington Redskins and the New York Jets.

Both Washington and New York are encouraged, we're expecting a wide-open affair today as each guns for another victory. Both teams are centred around the run and that's significant for the visitors as it basically nullifies the Jets' advantage in defending the pass. Look for Kirk Cousins to lean heavily on Chris Thompson, who saw 34 snaps in the team's Week 4 win over the Eagles. Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets' offense also have a dynamic back to lean on in Chris Ivory, who will look to take advantage of a Redskins defensive unit which allowed the Falcons to rack up 176 yards rushing on just 32 carries in Week 5. Ivory will be especially fresh today as the team comes in rested and prepared out of its bye week. This play however is based mainly on strong O/U trends, as note that Washington has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last nine non-conference games and in seven of its last 12 vs. teams with winning records, while New York has seen the total sail above the posted number in its last two after a win vs. a division rival and in six of its last nine non-conference games. In our professional opinion, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the San Diego Chargers.

Both teams are 2-2 and two games back of the 4-0 division leaders. The big difference of course is that the Steelers are without their No. 1 QB for at least a few more weeks, while Philip Rivers and the Chargers are returning to full strength and will be looking to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Pittsburgh backup Mike Vick is averaging just 5.1 yards per attempt and has yet to complete a pass past 20 yards, clearly he'll once again be leaning heavily upon RB Le'Veon Bell. Note that Vick has fumbled twice on 87 snaps and has already been sacked six times on 44 dropbacks, his sack rate of 15.8 is the highest in the league. The Chargers rank third in the NFL with 21 gains of 20 yards or more, while Rivers is on pace to finish with a career-high 8.9 yards per attempt, which spells trouble for a Steelers defense which ranked in the bottom ten in football with 83 missed tackles last year and suffered a ton of losses in the offseason. We have a hard time seeing the visitors slowing down San Diego's dynamic TE's, Ladarius Green who is now complimented by Antonio Gates. who makes his season debut tonight. Also note that the Steelers have not won on the West Coast since 2005. This is essentially a do-or-die game for the home side who can't afford to look past its potentially dangerous opponent, we're laying the points and expecting a lop-sided destruction; play on the CHARGERS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the San Francisco 49ers.

We feel that the home side is set up for a letdown here after back-to-back victories, including a convincing win at Buffalo last week. The 49ers have had a rough start to the year, but the team had no delusions coming into the season, everyone knowing that this was going to be a rebuilding process. San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick is playing for his career this year, and while he's struggled at time this season, he does have the very competent Carlos Hyde to hand off to, who is averaging 4.5 YPC. Giants' QB Eli Manning has looked a lot better of late, but New York is already famous this season for a couple of fourth quarter meltdowns. Also, with a game at division rival Philadelphia next Monday night, it's not too hard to imagine the home side looking ahead to that one. And note that San Francisco is 11-8 ATS in its last 19 on the road, while New York is only 8-10 ATS in its last 18 in front of the home town crowd. While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we do feel that the 49'ERS can keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

We like the home side to bounce back and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. It's hard to win on the road. It's hard to play on the road period, just ask the Jaguars, who will be playing their third straight away from friendly confines. Last week the Jags blew a golden opportunity to beat the Colts in the 16-13 OT setback and suffice it to say, we feel this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visiting side today. In the loss to Carolina, Bucs' QB Jameis Winston threw four INT's, but did finish 26 of 43 for 287 yards and two TD's as well. There's no question that Winston catches a break facing Jacksonville's secondary this week, and note, for the most part he's actually been pretty impressive this season having already thrown for 965 yards and six TD's. And despite the team's 1-3 record, the Buccaneers defense has given up an average of just 107.3 yards so far this year, which is the 16th best run defense in the league (bad news for Jags' rookie phenom RB TY Yeldon!). But not to be outdone, note that Tampa's pass defense is tied for second in the NFL with the Jets at 185.5 per game. The Bucs are also tied for ninth in the league with nine sacks. We think the Jags are deflated, while the Bucs are motivated, all signs do indeed point to a lop-sided blowout; lay the points with confidence on TAMPA BAY.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Buffalo Bills and the Tennessee Titans.

These are two teams which have looked awesome at times this year and very pedestrian in others. Both also have big expectations for the remainder of the season. The Bills are 2-2, injuries and penalties have proven costly so far for the team, entering this game off a humbling 24-10 loss to the Giants. The Titans are 1-2, but come in rested off their bye-week. Buffalo was supposed to have one of the best defensive lines in all of football this year, but so far that's not proven to be the case, the unit has a total of just seven sacks heading into Week 5; remember, this was a team which produced an NFL best 54 sacks last year. Buffalo clearly catches a break though facing a Titans offensive line which has already given up 12 sacks through just the first three games. The Bills are unquestionably going to be able to make some plays, get into the backfield and disrupt the rhythm of QB Marcus Mariota. One thing working against Buffalo though is its depleted running back issue, LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams are both injured, meaning third string Anthony Dixon will shoulder the load. And that's good news for the Titans, putting the onus on QB Tyrod Tailor and turning the unit extremely one dimensional and thus, predictable. To make matters worse for the visitors is their overall sloppy play, last season they were the second most penalized team and this year they've already racked up 47 penalties for 428 yards, the absolute worst thus far. Note that Buffalo has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 13 when playing the role of favorite, while Tennessee has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last seven following a loss to a division rival. All signs point to a slower-paced, penalty filled, low-scoring "chess match," play on the UNDER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Cleveland Browns and the Baltimore Ravens.

These divisional foes enter this contest sitting with identical 1-3 records. A loss today will be the proverbial nail in the coffin, meaning we're expecting an absolute war. Baltimore is already on the ropes, it did manage a win last Sunday, but it was ugly as it needed OT and two missed FG's by the Steelers to escape with the victory. The home side also suffered more bad news with injuries to Steve Smith and Michael Campanaro, meaning that the team will be leaning heavily on RB Justin Forsett once again, he'd put up 150 rushing yards in last week's win. QB Joe Flacco will be throwing to an unproven receiving corps, which is bad news in having to face the Browns ninth-ranked pass defense. But Cleveland is also dealing with injury issues of its own and is still looking for an identity on the offensive side of the ball. With each team dealing with its own issues, we expect this game to be decided in the trenches. Both teams will struggle to consistently move the ball, so getting an early lead will be critical for one team to then dictate the flow down the stretch. Note that Cleveland has seen the total go UNDER the number in nine of its last 12 vs. division opponents, while Baltimore has seen the total dip below the posted number in 11 of its last 18 home games and in eight of its last 14 vs. division opponents. All signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest.

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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Washington Redskins.

We think that the red hot Falcons come into this one a bit complacent and leave the backdoor open just enough for the Redskins to sneak through. Washington sits atop the NFC East in a three way tie with the Giants and Cowboys, and could actually be 3-1 if not for one poor play. We primarily base our picks on "situations," and it's not too hard to imagine the Falcons, who are coming off a 48-21 annihilation of the Texans, having letdown in this spot (also note that this is also a "look ahead" scenario for the home side, which has a quick turnaround with a Thursday night game at division rival New Orleans). The Redskins have been getting the job done with their No. 1 ranked run game, led by Alfred Morris, Matt Jones and Chris Thompson, which is bad news for a Falcons unit which has yet to be really tested this year. This will be all about controlling the clock for the visitors as they look to keep the home side's potent offense off the field of play. Clearly the Redskins can't get into a shootout with Julio Jones and the high-flying Falcons, but note that Washington's secondary has been surprisingly resilient considering some of the injury issues. While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we do think this one will be a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, play on WASHINGTON.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Chicago Bears and the Kansas City Chiefs.

We have a hard time seeing the Bears moving the ball at Arrowhead this afternoon and ultimately expect this total to sneak below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. KC's defense is an area of concern for the team, but there's no doubt that the Chiefs catch a big break today in facing Chicago's horrible offensive unit. Look for the home side to control the pace of this one with a heavy dose of RB Jamaal Charles. This is a big game for both 1-3 teams though, each has lost to three very good clubs while beating a very mediocre one. The Bears are coming off a win and have starting QB Jay Cutler back, but they'll once again be without the services of Alshon Jeffery. Note that Chicago has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 13 vs. teams with losing records, while KC has seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of its last 17 in front of the home town crowd and in six of its last nine non-conference contests. All signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest.

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This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the New York Giants and the Buffalo Bills.

We mainly base our Over/Under picks on situations and this particular contest definitely falls into our wheel house, so let's break it down: after back-to-back heartbreaking defeats because of poor play calling, the Giants finally got off the schneid with a convincing 32-21 victory over the Redskins last week. Two of New York's three games have flown above the number and the last time the G-Men faced the Bills the total also sailed above the posted number. That was back in 2011 though, so it is completely irrelevant to this selection, but it's still noteworthy as Buffalo comes to town sitting at 2-1 overall and has seen its last two contests sail well above the number, including last week's 41-14 destruction at Miami. Suffice it to say, this is a big game for both teams. New York looked much better defensively last week and we expect the visitors to employ the same game-plan today, Tyrod Taylor is going to have his hands full vs. the Giants' rejuvenated pass rush this afternoon. And other than the loss to the Patriots, the Bills' strength this year has clearly been their tight defensive play, the unit will be looking for another productive day vs. this oft-maligned New York offensive line. Also note that from an Over/Under trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as the Giants have seen the total go UNDER the number in six of their last 11 vs. teams with winning records, while Buffalo has seen the total stay below the posted number in seven of its last 12 as a favorite and 11 of its last 16 in front of the home town crowd. All signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest.

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This is a 10* RIVALRY BLOWOUT on the Washington Redskins.

We played the Eagles last week and they'd barely hold on for the 24-17 win over the Jets, scoring all 24 points in the first half. Washington should have won in Week 1, but fell 17-10 at home to the Fish, before then trouncing the Rams 24-10 in Week 2, only to then fall 32-21 in New York last Sunday. Philadelphia looked poor offensively last Sunday, most of its points came from special teams and defensive play, we have a hard time seeing the Eagles getting a similar effort today vs. a Redskins team which plays much better in front of the home town crowd. This is essentially a do-or-die game for Washington as well and while we obviously wouldn't be surprised by an outright straight-up victory, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. And note that from an ATS trend based stand point, this play is very strong as Philadelphia is a poor 12-14 ATS in its last 26 when playing the role of favorite and just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 vs. division opponents, while Washington is 5-3 ATS in its last eight as a home dog of three points or less. Play on the REDSKINS.

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This is a 10* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on the Miami Dolphins.

Unbelievably just four weeks into the 2015 NFL campaign and Dolphins' head coach Joe Philbin is on the hot seat, if he doesn't deliver the goods in London this morning, it's possible he won't even have a job by the time he touches back on home soil. It's do-or-die for the Fish after they squeaked by the Redskins in Week 1 and then suffering disturbing losses to the Jags and Bills respectively. The Jets looked pretty good in their first two games, but definitely came back down to Earth in last week's 24-17 home loss to the Eagles. While it's true that New York is 5-1 ATS in its last six, it's just 5-13 SU in its last 18. The Jets looked horrible last weekend and we believe will suffer another classic letdown here; note that New York is a poor 5-6 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite, while Miami is 9-8 ATS in its last 17 when playing the role of underdog. Simply put, we don't think that the Jets are as good as their record would indicate and we definitely don't feel that the Fish are as horrible as they've shown to this point. Desperation breeds motivation, we expect the determination/focus in which the DOLPHINS play with today to ultimately prove to be the difference.

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This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Baltimore Ravens.

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any single handicapping methodology and believe that being flexible with one's approach is the best way to secure profit over the longterm. With some selections we like to completely dissect it, looking at situation, motivation, scheduling, ATS trends and individual player matchups, but in some instances we feel that a more common sense approach is the best way to handicap a contest and that's the case here. Revenge is a powerful motivating factor, but some times it can be over rated. And once again, that's the case here in our professional opinion. While it's true that the Ravens beat the Steelers 30-17 in last years AFC Wildcard game, the situation is such that that factor now becomes irrelevant in this case. Big Ben Roethlisberger is not suiting up for the home side, instead it will be journeymen Michael Vick under center. Also, Baltimore comes into this game at 0-3 SU/ATS and while history has shown that only a few teams have ever even made it to the playoffs after starting the season with that record, Baltimore clearly won't have thrown in the towel yet, this is a team which will be risking life and limb and leaving everything on the field as it battles tooth and nail for its first win of the season. Pittsburgh still has dangerous offensive weapons, but without Roethlisberger, who many feel is a Top 3 QB, it's simply not the same unit. We'll take Joe Flacco and the hungry RAVENS to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.

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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Seattle Seahawks.

No need to overanalyse this one, Seattle is obviously a popular wager among the general betting public and for good reason as the conditions are definitely right for a lop-sided beatdown of epic proportions. The Seahawks are 0-2 SU/ATS, losing 34-31 in OT at St. Louis and 27-17 at Green Bay in Week 2. Two incredibly tough games to open the season, Seattle now returns home with something to prove. And it couldn't have asked for a better opponent to take its frustrations out on as the wounded Bears come to town, also 0-2 SU/ATS, but without their starting QB and a few other key pieces on both sides of the ball. The Seahawks were favored to win the Super Bowl this year and that goal is still attainable, but the team needs to make a statement this week, a close victory over this pathetic Chicago team simply won't cut it, Seattle needs a signature victory, not just winning, but annihilating its opponent from start to finish. Note that the Hawks are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 home games, while Chicago is just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 away from friendly confines. We have a hard time seeing Chicago mounting any sort of offensive attack and look for SEATTLE to dominate in all three phases this afternoon, lay the points with confidence.

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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Philadelphia Eagles.

We don't believe the New York Jets are as good as their 2-0 SU/ATS would indicate. We also don't think that the Eagles are as horrible as their 0-2 SU/ATS record is leading us to believe. With a game at division rival Miami next week, there is no question in our minds that this one sets up as a classic "look ahead/letdown" spot for the over-achieving Jets. Conversely, this is obviously a do-or-die game for the Eagles, only a tiny percentage of teams throughout NFL history have ever even made the playoffs after opening the season 0-3. And with another road contest at division rival Washington next Sunday, this week's contest becomes even more important for the visiting side. Now throw in the fact that the Eagles are 3-0 ATS their last three as a road dog of three points or less, 5-3 ATS their last eight non-conference games and 3-2 ATS after two or more consecutive losses, while the Jets are 1-3 ATS their last four after playing on Monday Night Football, then you understand why we designated this selection with top rated 10* status; all signs do indeed point to PHILADELPHIA as the savvy move in this contest.

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his is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the OVER between the Washington Redskins and the New York Giants.

If you've followed us for any length of time, you know that we're a situationally based handicapping service and while we don't prescribe to any one single handicapping methodology, for the most part the actual players have little to do with our process whatsoever. Unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or an Aaron Rodgers, it doesn't matter whatsoever to us who is on the playing field, we base our selections on situations, motivation, scheduling and lop-sided trends and numbers. So for us, this is a great spot bet as we're expecting each of these hungry teams to open up the playbook and to take some shots down field whenever possible. For the home side, another loss would essentially be the nail in the coffin for the remainder of the year, only a small percentage of teams that have opened 0-3 have ever made even made the playoffs, for all intents and purposes this is obviously a "do-or-die" game, especially with a tough road contest at Buffalo the following week. And for Washington, which opened with a 17-10 loss to the Fish and then won in Week 2 with a 24-10 effort over the Rams, it will clearly be looking to carry the momentum it created from that victory over into this contest. It's also the Redskins first road game, before then returning home for a battle vs. division rival Philadelphia. As mentioned off the top, these are two "hungry" teams, desperate in fact. We're expecting this determination to translate into production on the field. Note that Washington has seen the total go OVER the number in 13 of its last 23 when playing with six or less days rest, while New York has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 13 vs. division opponents and both times that it's played on a "Thursday Night" over the last two seasons. The writing is on the wall and a shootout is in the cards, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the savvy move in this contest.

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This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the Seattle Seahawks and the Green Bay Packers.

We are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, which also takes into account motivation, scheduling and lop-sided trends and numbers. This one falls perfectly into one of our systems: both teams are coming off high-scoring games in their openers, the Packers would hold on for the 31-23 win over the Bears, while Seattle would lose 34-31 in OT at St. Louis. The last two times these have met, the total has also soared above the posted number, Seattle won 36-16 on September 4th and 28-22 in the playoff last season. While the "Law of Averages" is flawed in many ways, we love going against lop-sided numbers and trends and that's definitely the case here. Also note that Seattle has seen the total go UNDER the number in its last three games off a loss vs. a division rival and in nine of its last 17 on the road, while Green Bay has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last eight off a win vs. a division rival. This number is a little high, play on the UNDER.

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