This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

For the most part we base our picks on "situations." Unless it's a Top 3 player, like a Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady etc, it doesn't matter to us whatsoever who is on the field of play that day, we make our picks based on situations, motivation and on lop-sided trends and numbers. This particular selection is a real beauty and deservedly gets our top ranked 10* rating for a number of great motivational and situational reasons. So here we go! San Francisco is coming off a hugely satisfying upset win on Monday night at home and now has to travel across the country on a short week to play an early EST game; also note that the 49ers have a tough divisional contest on the road in Arizona next week. Can anyone say classic "look ahead/let down spot?!" And for the Steelers, who come into this one on nine days rest after their opening day loss in New England, this has essentially become a "do-or-die" scenario, with super tough games upcoming at St. Louis next week, at home vs. Baltimore and then one the road at San Diego. It's as simple as that for us, it's a perfect storm of factors working in favor of PITTSBURGH this afternoon.

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This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Minnesota Vikings.

We played this game the moment we could and got a very favorable line, but if you can get -3 or better, we still love this selection. The Vikes looked fantastic in the preseason, finishing 4-1 SU/ATS, easily handling Pittsburgh 14-3 in the Hall of Fame Game, going into Dallas in the all important Week 3 "dress rehearsal" and beating the 'Boys 28-14 and only losing the finale, 24-17 in Tennessee against a then winless Titans team. Minnesota fans have a lot to feel good about this year, QB Teddy Bridgewater seemingly has gotten better after every game that he's played and now teamed with star RB Adrian Peterson, expectations are high to say the least for the Vikes. Bridgewater now has legitimate deep threats in Jarius Wright, Mike Wallace and Charles Johnson. The defense is expected to be much better as well, keep your eyes on LB Anthony Barr, who was a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate last year. And that's bad news for the 49ers who allowed 52 sacks last season and who lost coach Jim Harbaugh and many key players on both sides of the ball. Beleagured QB Colin Kaepernick will once again be under center, he'll be running for his life today because of his porous offensive line. Reggie Bush and Carlos Hyde round out a pretty mediocre offensive unit, while the defense is in shambles after the mass exit in the offseason. All signs do indeed point to a beatdown, play on the VIKINGS.

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This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER between the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys.

The last five games between these division rivals have flown above the posted number, including both last season; Dallas would beat the Giants at home 31-21 in mid November and 31-28 in New York a month later. Prime time NFL games have been flying above the number left and right over the last two years, but we're finally projecting these two normally offensive-minded clubs to come out a bit flat footed in the season opener and expect this total to finally fall below the posted number once the smoke clears. Also note that this is the largest posted total between the two teams over their last 20 games dating back to 2005. And as proficient as Dallas was in 2014/15, note that four of its last five games at home last season did indeed fall below the posted number. Our totals selections are primarily based on situations and we feel that there are enough significant factors that now point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest.

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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Miami Dolphins.

Washington has been embroiled in controversy throughout the off-season, while Miami has quietly and methodically gone about constructing a serious playoff contender. Suffice it to say, when the smoke clears at the end of this one, we're expecting the visitors to find a way to get the job done. Washington made a late preseason decision to bench RG III as starting QB and instead go with Kirk Cousins. It wouldn't matter who got the start today though in our opinion as we're expecting Miami's improved defensive unit, which is now anchored by Ndamukong Suh, to have a big day against this suspect Redskins offensive line. With Suh drawing double teams, it will open things up for Miami's talented pass rushers like Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon to inflict as much damage as possible on Cousins (note that the Redskins' offensive line would allow a deplorable 58 sacks last year, second-worst in the NFL). The Fish also have plenty to be excited about with steadily improving QB Ryan Tannehill and his revamped receiving corps. It obviously won't be a cake walk though, Washington has plenty to prove and Cousins does have threats in the form of DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, but this one ultimately boils down to the Redskins' poor offensive line and defensive unit. Miami can ill afford to look past its Week 1 opponent, with playoff aspirations going in, getting started on the "right foot" becomes paramount and we expect the team to take that first step today; play on the DOLPHINS.

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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Seattle Seahawks.

We chose the Seahawks to win the NFC this season in a futures wager. Here is that analysis:

So in the last two Super Bowls the Seahawks have outplayed their opponents for more than 119 of 120 minutes and have only one title and a lot of angst to show for it. This coming February they’ll get a shot at atoning for last season's mental boo-boo. Basically the same cast of characters is back, and adding TE Jimmy Graham to the mix only spikes the punch a bit. There really isn’t much standing in the way of another deep playoff run. Green Bay, maybe, if the Packers can finagle a title game in Wisconsin. Dallas, if the Boys can stop patting themselves in the back for a moment. And when the Seahawks do get in position to win the Super Bowl back, don’t write Marshawn Lynch out of the offense. Seahawks appear to be a bargain at +250.

Seattle will be looking to make a statement in this opening game, not only to the Rams and the rest of the NFC West, but also to the rest of the league. Surely the bitter defeat in Super Bowl XLIX has weighed heavily on the organization throughout the preseason and they'll now finally be able to take out their frustrations on a real opponent Sunday. And here's the perfect team to beat up on, the Rams looked horrible in the preseason and start new QB Nick Foles, whom they traded Sam Bradford for, from the Eagles. St. Louis is going to have a hell of a time slowing down the combination of QB Russell Wilson, RB Marshawn Lynch and TE Jimmy Graham (note that the 'Hawks are 3-0 SU/ATS in their last three away from friendly confines). And remember, the last time these team's met, Seattle walked away with the 20-6 victory, holding the Rams to just 245 total yards. St. Louis would allow 47 sacks, eighth most in the NFL last year and we predict this unit having their hands full today as well. While some may look at this as some sort of divisional "trap game" for the visitors, we don't see it that way at all; there's no Super Bowl hangover for SEATTLE, we like this team to come in focused and prepared on the task at hand and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.

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This is a 10* SUPER BOWL SUPER SIDE on the Seattle Seahawks.

For a number of different reasons I think that the Seattle Seahawks are going to repeat as Super Bowl Champions. What more can be said about these two teams’ strengths and weaknesses which hasn’t literally been said a million times by now by every talking head and analyst in North America. Both teams are extremely well coached. New England revolves around the play of veteran QB Tom Brady; simply put, if Brady has an “off” day, then the Patriots have no chance at winning this game, or any game for that matter. The Pats improved tremendously from last year though, they are a much more complete team overall, getting balanced running and a much more competent defense and secondary. The Seahawks also have one of the best QB’s in the league guiding them, as Russell Wilson is one of the NFL’s most dynamic overall pivots, able to make plays with both his arm and his feet. However, if Wilson has an “off day”, the Seahawks are still able to win games and it’s this factor which I believe will prove to be the difference here. Certainly Wilson was not at his best in the Conference Championship win over the Green Bay Packers, and while the Hawks may have been “lucky” to win that contest, a combination of the league’s best defense and a strong running game would support Wilson and give him a chance to redeem himself in the final moments. The Patriots simply don’t have the same ability whatsoever. To me, this game seems eerily familiar to last year’s Super Bowl when the Seahawks destoryed Peyton Manning and the Broncos and while the oddsmakers are giving the defending champs a lot more respect this time around, I definitely don’t think it’s enough. I won’t be throwing out any ATS stats or trends today, obviously in a game like this they are meaningless. I simply feel that SEATTLE is the better overall team and expect this incredible depth on both sides of the ball to prove to be the difference in the outcome.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots.

What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams? Obviously the first thing is: “Great starting QB’s”. Indeed, these are a couple of the highest-scoring teams in the league over the last two years, but I feel that the conditions are right for of a more “chess match” style of contest today, where field position becomes paramount and ultimately will expect this total to fall below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. It’s a great situational play; it will be a dark and stormy night, which obviously doesn’t always translate into lower-scoring games, in fact you’ll hear lots of handicappers claim that rain = OVER and wind = UNDER. Both teams are affected equally, although I think Andrew Luck and the Colts more so because of the “Dome” factor. Really, from a strength vs. weakness stand point, what more can be said about these two teams which hasn’t already literally been said millions of times by all the talking heads over the last two seasons? If you’re wagering on this game, you don’t need a professional sports handicapper to break down game tape and analyze individual player match-ups, you need me to find the edges in lines and uncover the safest overall investment opportunities. These are two great offensive teams, but note that this is actually a spot that both sides have played to numerous “unders” in, the most pertinent being that Indianapolis has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of three in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent this season and in eight of 11 in the same position over the last two, while New England has seen the total stay below the number in both Conference championship games that it’s played in the last three seasons. In my opinion, all signs point to this number being just a little high, play on the UNDER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Green Bay Packers and the Seattle Seahawks.

For a number of different reasons I expect this total to sneak below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. Seattle opened the season with a 36-16 win over Green Bay on September 4th. So what’s changed between now and then? Both teams were for the most part expected to be in this game, each overcame early adversity to reach this point. Seattle’s defense struggled to start the year, but the unit would turn things around in the second half and finish as the league’s best. The Packers for the most part are defined by Aaron Rodgers and their dynamic offensive unit, but it was Green Bay’s defense which would improve the most over the course of the campaign, allowing more than 21 points just once in its final nine games. Seattle catches a break though today as Rodgers is ailing from an injured calf, which means that the Packers will clearly be leaning heavily on RB Eddie Lacy today. Note that Rodgers’ 81.5 passer rating in the setback in September was his second-lowest of the season; also note that Lacy’s 34 yards vs. the Seahawks was a season-low as well. The Seattle offense gets its yardage in chunks, a combination of strong running and safe/secure short passing routes to move the ball down the field, invariably this type of offense eats up the clock. Note that the Packers have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four playoff games, while Seattle has seen it dip below the posted number in five of its last eight vs. teams with winning records. In my opinion, all of the conditions are right for a low-scoring UNDER in this one.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos.

These two teams are known for their high-scoring tendencies which is why we have such a sky-high total, but when the smoke clears at the end of this one I expect it to fall below the posted number. This is the third time that Broncos QB Peyton Manning has faced the Colts, losing 39-33 last year before holding on for a 31-24 home win on September 7th. "It's not the quarterback versus quarterback thing. We're not on the field at the same time," Colts’ QB Andrew Luck assessed earlier in the week. "I have a lot of respect for (Manning), what he does, what he still does is amazing. He's a stud. I'll worry about the Denver defense, that's what I worry about." Good news for Broncos fans, the team is much healthier with the extra week off, especially on the defensive side of the ball as leading tackler Brandon Marshall will be back after suffering a foot injury in Week 15. Note though, Manning definitely backed his way into the postseason, he posted a poor 76.8 passer rating with three TD’s and six INT’s while averaging just 247.5 YPG over the final four games; Manning will be leaning heavily on RB CJ Anderson today who would lead the NFL with 648 rushing yards and eight TD’s over his last six weeks of the regular season: “The biggest thing is stopping the run before you can get to (Manning)," Indianapolis DE Cory Redding said on Saturday. "We have to focus on that. That's where all our attention is going to go. Then when it's time to focus on 18, our coaches will draw up a good game plan, and we'll attack it the best way possible." Note that the Colts have seen the total go UNDER the number in six of nine vs. teams with winning records this year, while the Broncos have seen it dip below the posted number in three of their last five after two weeks of rest. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move here.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers.

When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect this total to dip below the posted number. It’s not going to be an “Ice Bowl”, but temperatures will be frigid (in the low 20’s), both teams will be effected: “It's all mental," Cowboys DE Jeremy Mincey assessed earlier in the week. "We've got to be mentally tough, which we are. Green Bay has to deal with it, too. You can never get use to 11-degree weather. I don't care who you are. (The "Ice Bowl" was a) legendary game and takes you back in history. Here it is, repeating itself again. And you've got a team that's ready for it." Dallas has every reason to feel confident, it’s 8-0 on the road this year. However, take note that Green Bay finished 8-0 at home. Dallas’ offense revolves around RB DeMarco Murray, QB Tony Romo has excelled as opponents are unable to key on the Cowboys oft-maligned pivot. However, take note that Green Bay’s rush defense has excelled down the stretch, after allowing 153.5 rushing yards per game over the first eight, the Packers have yielded an average of just 86.4 on the ground while winning seven of their final eight contests. And as good as Romo has been this year, note that he’s completed only 60.9 percent of his passes with a TD and an INT while being sacked eight times in losing both career postseason road games. Not to be outdone though, note the Dallas’ defensive unit also comes in hot, after allowing 155 yards while falling behind 14-0 to the Lions last week, Dallas would then hold Detroit to 242 the rest of the way. The Cowboys defense will have to be sharp to contain Packers QB Aaron Rodgers; note though, Rodgers is 5-4 as a playoff starter and just 1-2 at Lambeau, passing for 177 yards with a TD, while getting sacked four times in last year’s 23-20 wild-card home loss to the 49ers. Note that Dallas has seen the total fall below the posted number in five of nine this year after two or more consecutive SU wins and in four of six vs. teams with winning records. And note that Green Bay has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of its last three after playing with two weeks of rest. I think the writing is on the wall and a more methodical paced game is in the cards, in my opinion all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this one.

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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Carolina Panthers.

I bet against the Panthers last week, but that was then and this is now; while I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the visitors to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Making the playoffs and then succeeding in the postseason has a lot to do with timing and team chemistry. Seattle definitely looks like it has the pieces in place to make another run at the Super Bowl title, it enters the playoffs as arguably the hottest team in the league. After a slow start the Seahawks would finally find some chemistry at the midway point and have been virtually unstoppable since. Carolina on the other hand was in a dog fight all year in the lowly NFC South, but managed to finally put it all together in the last few weeks and also comes into this game with momentum and confidence. I simply don’t feel that the bookmakers are giving enough respect to Carolina’s defense or to QB Cam Newton who is reportedly near 100% health. Carolina has an effective run game, which will be useful in keeping the Seattle offense off the field. I think these teams are much more evently matched than what the spread is saying. Note that the Panthers are a perfect 4-0 ATS this year in revening a loss vs. an opponent (lost 13-9 at home to the Hawks back on November 26th); and note that Seattle is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a favorite of 10 points or more. In my opinion, this number is just a little high, play on CAROLINA.

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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the New England Patriots.

I played the Ravens last week and they would go on to upset the Steelers 30-17 in Pittsburgh. Pulling off another epic upset on the road is not in the cards in my opinion, I believe that home field advantage is a big factor today and expect the determined Patriots to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. What more can be said about these teams that hasn’t literally been said millions of times by all the “talking heads” across the nation for the last 15 years? If you are wagering on this game, you are clearly a fan of the NFL and don’t need to be told by me about the obvious strengths and weaknesses of each side. I am not a coach, a scout or a player evaluator. I am a professional sports handicapper. Some handicappers look at individual player matchups, while others (like myself), are “situational” prognosticators, which means that for the most part, it doesn’t matter who is on the field of play. And that’s definitely the case for me, 95% of the time I base my picks on “situations”, which includes motivational factors and scheduling etc. It’s hard to win on the road in the NFL and it’s extremely difficult to win away from friendly confines in the Playoffs. Are the Ravens a team of destiny? In my opinion, the answer is clearly: no! New England struggled to start the year but a rejuvinated Tom Brady would turn his performance around and the Pats would win 10 of their last 12 SU. Note that Baltimore is just 1-4 ATS this year after two or more consecutive SU wins, while New England is 8-2 ATS in its last ten as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the PATRIOTS as the savvy move in this one.

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This is a 10* WILD CARD BLOCKBUSTER on the Detroit Lions.

It’s been an unreal year for Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys, who would both ride RB DeMarco Murray into the Playoffs. But now Murray is about to run head first into the league’s best rush defense and I ultimatley feel that this factor will decide the outcome of this game. With Detroit effectively shutting down Murray today, the spot light will be on Romo to perform, this is the type of scenario that he’s failed in throughout his career and I expect that trend to continue today (note that Romo is just 1-3 in the postseason). The Lions would limit their opposition to 69.3 rushing yards per game with 133 tackles for a loss to lead the NFL in both categories this year. The Cowboys defense is hardly a “World Stopper”, certainly the talented Lions offensive unit has a big opportunity to put some points on the board; note that QB Matt Stafford threw for 488 yards (many to Calvin Johnson) in these teams last meeting together, a 31-30 Detroit win on October 27th, 2013. Johnson would finish with 14 receptions for 329 yards. Also note that Dallas’ defense suffered a blow in last week’s win over the Redskins when DT Henry Melton was lost for the remainder of the year with a knee injury. I think this is an offense that DETROIT is tailor made to stop, grab the points.

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This is a 10* WILD CARD BLOCKBUSTER on the Arizona Cardinals.

I jumped on this line right when it came out and got 4.5 and it’s since gone up to as high as 6.5 as of writing; regardless, I really like this play and think that the incredible depth of the Cardinals will prove to be the difference in the outcome of this contest. Obviously I think the outright win is a very real possibility and if so inclined, you may want to consider “sprinkling a little” on the money line as well. In my opinion, this one is going to come down to the wire and as such I will ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can. I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for Carolina; the Panthers battled in the worst division in the league and would gut out a victory over the hapless Atlanta Falcons for the right to represent the anemic NFC South in their final game of the year (I had Carolina in that one). I think Carolina is just happy to be here. Sure the Panthers have won three straight, but now they’re going to run smack dab into a hungry and determined Cardinals team which will be looking to take its frustrations out on someone after coming up just short down the stretch of the regular season. While the Cards are relegated to having to use their third string QB, which I will admit is a huge factor, I will just remind you that a “Football” team is more than just a single man, something that Arizona has proved throughout the year. Does Carolina even have a serious QB advantage here? In my opinion, no, Cam Newton has looked brilliant at times this year and extremely poor in others. He has supposedly been dealing with injuries and is healthier now than ever before, but if there’s one thing that Newton has proven throughout his career, it’s been that he’s extremely inconsistent from game to game. I think the QB “talent gap” is not as big as what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Ryan Lindley will have his hands full today with an improving Panthers secondary, but he has lots of talented weapons to lean on. And in my opinion, the Cardinals defense is superior overall. Arizona competed in the ultra competitive NFC West and despite its QB issues, I believe is still the better team today; play on the CARDINALS.

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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Carolina Panthers.

While I obviously think the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. It’s do or die, the winner of this game will go on to represent the surprisingly poor NFC South. These are a couple of bad teams. Atlanta remained alive in the race by beating the Saints 30-14 last Sunday, its first win in three games. Carolina needs to win or tie to clinch the division and will play with revenge here after falling 19-17 to the Falcons in Week 11: "We're in a great position," Panthers coach Ron Rivera assessed earlier in the week. "We have a chance to do something that's never happened in the NFC South and that's (win) back-to-back division titles." Carolina though is moving in the right direction to end the year, after giving up an average of 29 points during a six-game skid, the Panthers have won all three of their games this month, outscoring the opposition 77-40 in the process (it’s interesting to note that Carolina is 14-3 in the month of December since Rivera took over in 2011). Panthers QB Cam Newton has overcome season long injury issues to play a lot better of late, he threw for 201 yards with a TD, while also adding 12 carries for 63 yards and another score in last Sunday’s 17-13 win over the Browns. Also note that Carolina RB Jonathan Stewart has been a wrecking ball over the last month, he leads the league with 437 rushing yards in that span. A lone bright spot for Atlanta’s offense has been receiver Julio Jones, at least in the consistency department, but Jones can’t win the game by himself, I believe Carolina continues to make progressions on the defensive side of the ball today. I think this game should be a pick-em and as far as I’m concerned that means that the PANTHERS are indeed the sharp move in this pivotal contest.

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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the San Francisco 49ers.

With likely many of their jobs on the line, the 49ers still have something to play for today. San Francisco will also be relishing the chance to play spoiler today and to take its frustrations out on division rival and playoff bound Arizona. The Cardinals of course come in with their third string QB and now have more questions than answers on both sides of the ball. The conditions are certainly right for a lop-sided blowout in my opinion. Arizona has zero TD’s in its last two games and will have to put Ryan Lindley back under center; Lindley fell to 1-4 in his career as a starter after completing 18 of 44 passes for 216 yards with one INT in last Sunday’s 35-6 loss at home to Seattle. This is likely Jim Harbaugh’s swan song for San Francisco, added incentive for the home side to come out with a big effort. This is also a revenge game for the 49ers after falling 23-14 in Arizona on September 21st. San Francisco’s four-game slide is the club’s longest under Harbaugh and suffice it to say, I think the motivational and situational edges working in its favor will ensure that that streak of futility ends today. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to SAN FRANCISCO as the savvy move here.

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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the St. Louis Rams.

As good as Seattle has played of late and despite having to also win this contest to clinch the division, I believe this does in fact set up as a bit of a letdown/lookahead spot for the home side and believe that the Rams will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Interestingly, this will be the fourth time in five seasons that Seattle hosts St. Louis in Week 17. The Rams would beat the ‘Hawks 28-26 on October 19th: "It's a great place to play, it's a hard place to play and they have a great home-field advantage as everybody knows," St. Louis coach Jeff Fisher said of his team’s matchup this weekend. "We're going to have to go up there and play good football and not turn it over. They have a lot to play for so it's going to be an exciting game." A big reason the Rams won that first game was their ability to slow down RB Marshawn Lynch, holding the wrecking ball to just 53 yards on 18 carries. St. Louis’ defensive unit will also be extra motivated after giving up 514 yards in last week’s 37-27 loss to the Giants: "I mean, 500 yards of offense, you can't do that," linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar said. "I don't care who you're playing, you can't do that. It's disappointing for us to play like this." As focused as Seattle claims to be in this game, it doesn’t take too much of an imagination to picture the team in some small way “looking ahead” to the playoffs as it tries to defend its title; while I won’t go so far as to call for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that ST. LOUIS has enough situational and motivational factors working on its side to indeed pull the trigger on this 10* selection.

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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Green Bay Packers.

It all comes down to this. The winner of this game will clinch the NFC North with even more positive implications on the line as well. I simply can’t understate how important I think that the “home field advantage” will be today, and believe this factor will in the end prove to be the difference in the outcome of this contest. The Packers plus-15 turnover differential is the best in the league and their 11 turnovers committed could be the team’s best mark since 1941. And if history is any precedence, then Green Bay has to be loving its chances here, the Pack have won 22 consecutive regular-season home games vs. the Lions. Detroit will be playing in the postseason regardless of the outcome and with that satisfying fact at the back of its collective thoughts, I think the visitors come out a bit flat here. Note that this is also a revenge game for Green Bay after it fell 19-7 in Detroit on September 21st. And as good as the Lions defense has been to this point of the season, I think the unit runs into an absolute buzzsaw today as Green Bay is 7-0 at home so far, averaging a whopping 41.1 points and 425.6 yards per game in the process. QB Aaron Rodgers has been unstoppable in front of the home town crowd, but now the dynamic pivot also has a run game to lean on, the unit has rushed for 110 yards or more in nine of the Packers last ten games, including in seven straight. And those facts don’t bode well for a Detroit offense which ranks 20th overall in total offense on the road, QB Matt Stafford has posted a poor 72.8 rating away from friendly confines. Also note that Stafford will be without the services of center Dominic Raiola because of a one game suspension, meaning that rookie Travis Swanson will hand off to him, the first time in his career that he’ll be taking snaps from someone else in a regular-season contest. After taking all of the above situational factors into consideration, in my opinion all signs do indeed point to the PACKERS as the savvy move in this particular matchup.

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This is a 10* NFC EAST GAME OF THE YEAR on the New York Giants.

For a number of different reasons, I think the home side will find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon, pulling away down the stretch for a comfortable ATS cover. Philadelphia is out of the playoff picture after last week’s setback, making this a classic letdown spot for the visitors. Now also throw in the fact that the Giants play with revenge here and enter on a three-game win skein, there’s no question in my opinion that we’re getting fantastic line value today, the motivational and situational factors working in favor of the home side are as about as strong as you could possibly hope to ask for. Philadelphia has lost three straight and has nothing left to play for here. Many of the 6-9 Giants though are playing for their jobs next year, New York is looking for one last big effort, a top draft position is out of the question. Just listen to Eagles’ TE Zach Hertz: "It's very frustrating to us to control our destiny when we are 9-3 and to have this happen," Ertz lamented earlier in the week. "We're very disappointed. Ultimately, it falls on the players. We didn't execute the game, either of the three games. It's very disheartening." That sounds like a man who has given up on the season. QB Mark Sanchez looked decent at times this season, but a closer look reveals some more glaring weaknesses, the oft-maligned pivot has 14 turnovers in eight games. New York could care less about the Eagles’ issues though, this is a team clearly driven right now to finish the season strong, the late surge has likely saved coach Tom Coughlin’s job. Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. were on the same page in last week’s 37-27 win at St. Louis, the young receiver would finish with 148 yards and two scores on eight catches. New York would lose 27-0 in the first game vs. Philadelphia: "Sure, we have something to prove," right tackle Justin Pugh said. "We didn't score at all the first time." Manning was particularly effective last week, he was 25 of 35 for 391 yards and three TD’s with no INT’s and his 148.8 rating was the highest of his career (also note that Manning needs just one more win for 100 victories for his career). In my opinion, Sanchez will have to have the game of his career for Philadelphia to score the upset and I simply don’t see that happening, play on NEW YORK.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Denver Broncos and the Cincinnati Bengals.

For a number of different situational, motivational and strong trend based reasons, I look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. While the visitors have clinched a playoff berth, a first-round bye and home-field advantage are still at stake. With a victory today, the Broncos would secure the first round bye. "It's our goal every year. Everybody's hope and dream before the season is you'll be hoisting that championship trophy," Denver coach John Fox confirmed earlier in the week. "We got close last year and came up short ... Obviously, (the AFC West title) is a great accomplishment, but we still have more season left." The Bengals need a victory to punch their ticket to the postseason and come in with plenty of momentum and confidence after throttling the Browns 30-0 last Sunday. RB Jeremy Hill won AFC Offensive Player of the week after rushing for 148 yards and two TD’s. But beating the Broncos is obviously easier said than done, Peyton Manning is 8-0 in his career vs. Cincinnati and he comes in with momentum, bouncing back from his first zero-TD performance with Denver by going 14 of 20 for 233 yards and a TD in a win over Buffalo on December 7th. A date vs. the Bengals is just what the doctor ordered for Manning in my opinion, he’s owned Cincinnati throughout his career, throwing 20 TDs to just five INT’s lifetime. Also note that the Broncos are 4-0 in night games this year, most recently dismantling KC 29-16 on November 30th. If the Bengals passing game was ever going to get untracked, this would be the weekend the team desperately needs that to happen. The Broncos run defense is stout, but it will have its hands full with Hill no doubt, making this the perfect opportunity for Andy Dalton and AJ Green to step up and take advantage of. Denver is less than impressive against the pass and it’s definitely the weak point on that side of the ball. Note that Denver has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of 13 when playing the role of favorite this year, while Cincinnati has seen it sail above the number in four of its seven home games this year. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the sharp move in this one.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Seattle Seahawks and the Arizona Cardinals.

For a number of different situational, motivational and strong O/U trend based reasons, I am expecting this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. It’s a big game, both teams feel they have something to prove and despite them already having played to a very low-scoring contest this season, the conditions unquestionably are now ready to produce a much higher-scoring shootout in my opinion. The Cards will send QB Ryan Lindley onto the field as the home side will try to clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, while also hoping to help his team atone for a lackluster 19-3 loss in Seattle earlier in the year. A victory today would give Arizona a franchise record for wins and home field throughout the playoffs (and remember, the Super Bowl is being played at University of Phoenix Stadium this year). The Cards have to be feeling pretty confident, they’re 7-0 at home and will need Lindley to play well. Not fantastic though. Lindley was 4 of 10 for 30 yards while filling in against St. Louis last week. Drew Stanton though is expected to be back by the Playoffs. Obviously the visitors could care less about anything to do with their division rivals, other than making them hurt even more with another victory, the Seahawks come in with a ton of momentum in winning four straight and another SU victory would clinch their fourth playoff appearance in the last five years. The Hawks defense has rounded into form and is once again a serious threat to score on any opponents possession, but take note that Russell Wilson and company have also re-gained their chemistry, the dual threat pivot has posted a 101.2 passer rating over his last four games and was 17 of 22 for 211 yards and a TD, while also running 10 times for 73 yards in the win over the Cards. For Arizona, it will obviously be leaning heavily on RB Kerwynn Williams so as to eleviate the pressure from Lindley; Williams has 34 carries for 175 yards over the last two weeks. I think that it’s important to note that in the last game these team’s played against each other in Arizona, the ‘Hawks would walk away with the 34-22 victory last October 17th. And note that Seattle has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last five after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Arizona has seen it sail above the posted number in three of its last five off a win vs. a division rival. After taking all of the above factors into consideration, in my opinion this number is just a little low, play on the OVER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Buffalo Bills and the Oakland Raiders.

For a number of different reasons I expect this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Buffalo still has a mathematical shot at making the playoffs and as such, I am fully expecting the visitors to come in razor focused on the task at hand,which I believe will translate to some points being put on the board. It’s a do or die game for Buffalo, it must dispatch of the Raiders to remain in contention for a wild-card spot. The Bills come in with plenty of momentum and confidence as well after holding on for a 21-13 upset win at home over Green Bay last Sunday, their third victory in four games. Offensively the Bills will look to turn things around, so far the team ranks second to last in the league with 20 TD’s in 49 red-zone possessions: “We've got to do a better job," coach Doug Marrone confirmed earlier in the week. "We've got to protect better, got to run routes better, we've got to get a better rhythm." Note that the Bills offense will get a big boost today with the expected return of RB CJ Spiller; Spiller has been out with injury and ranks second among backs with 5.0 YPC since entering the league in 2010. Oakland would love nothing more than to play spoiler though, the Raiders would eventually fall apart and lose 31-13 at Kansas City on Sunday; rookie QB Derek Carr was 27 of 56 for 222 yards and a TD while being sacked four times. However, expect to see a heavy dose of the run game from the home side today as the Bills are giving up 5.0 yards per carry and 10 TD’s on the ground over their last eight games. Note that Buffalo has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five road games when the total in the contest is set between 38.5 and 42 points, while Oakland has seen it sail above the posted number in four of six home games this year and in five of eight vs. teams with winning records. In my opinoin, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the sharp move here.

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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Green Bay Packers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Packers and Bucs get ready to battle on Sunday afternoon and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I’m expecting this total to have eclipsed the posted number. With a chance of moving one step closer to securing the NFC North, I think that Green Bay comes to play today. In fact, the Packers still have a shot at the NFC’s No. 1 seed (with some help) and they’ll definitley be looking to atone for last week’s listless 21-13 loss at Buffalo; note that the setback snapped a five-game win streak for Green Bay and put it into a must win situation to avoid giving any ground to Detroit who is in last-place Chicago on Sunday: “Everything is right in front of us," Pack quarterback Aaron Rodgers assessed earlier in the week. "We win out, we still win the North." Rodgers will be particularly motivated here after the big egg he laid in Buffalo last week, posting a career-high 25 incompletions on 42 attempts, including two INT’s: “This is a road game we have to have," Packers coach Mike McCarthy said on Saturday. "We clearly understand the importance of winning in December, and we need to take it up a notch as a football team." Tampa Bay won’t simply roll over though, especially because it’s yet to win in front of the home town crowd: "We've come close quite a few times at home," Bucs coach Lovie Smith said yesterday. "Once we get it going – instead of talking about getting that first win, we should be talking about, 'Hey, we haven't lost at home.' ... We realize we have a couple of more opportunities, but what better week than (against Green Bay)?" But slowing down Green Bay will be easier said than done, the Packers are averaging 31.1 points and 383.6 yards per game; and that obviously doesn’t bode well for the porous Buccaneers defensive unit which is allowing an average of 26.2 points and 366.6 yards per game to rank 25th in the league in both categories. And things don’t get any easier for the home side as it will have to make due without the services of star DT Gerald McCoy, who sprained his right knee last weekend. Note that Green Bay has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its four vs. teams with losing records this year, while Tampa Bay has seen it sail above the number in three of its five vs. teams with winning records this season. When you add it all up, in my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the sharp move here.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the New York Jets.

While I won’t go so far as to call for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that the home side comes to play today as I’m expecting the Jets to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Pats would wrap up the AFC East last week and while they still need two wins to ensure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, I do believe this contest sets up as a bit of a mental letdown spot for the visitors. New York plays with revenge as well after falling 27-25 in New England back on October 16th. In fact, four of New York’s last five in the series have been decided by three points or fewer and the Jets won last season’s meeting in the Big Apple 30-27 in overtime. When you take a closer look at the numbers, it’s almost impossible to believe that New York hasn’t actually taken one of these contests as the Jets have held the Patriots to an average of just 283.3 yards and 22.3 points per game over the last three. The Jets have the sixth-ranked defense and are especially strong against the run, limiting the opposition to just 87.5 yards for the fourth-lowest average in the NFL. New York’s biggest issue is with offensive consistency, but through all of the tumult this season, the Jets’ run game has remained a bright spot, the unit has gained 166.6 YPG since the setback to the Patriots. And note that the Jets come in with some momentum and confidence as well after betting Tennessee 16-11 last Sunday, QB Geno Smith has two TD’s and two INT’s over his last three games. Note that New England is already just 1-2 ATS this year vs. teams with losing records, while New York is 2-0 ATS in its last two as an underdog of 10 points or more. When taking into account all of the above factors, all signs do indeed point to the JETS as the savvy move here.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Baltimore Ravens and the Houston Texans.

For a number of different situational, motivational and strong trend based factors, I’m expecting this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Baltimore actually controls its own fate, so with only one thing on its mind (winning), I’m expecting the visitors to come in razor focused on the task at hand. And with a mathemtical shot at still gaining entrance to the promised land, I’m also expecting Houston to be at its best today. So from a situational stand point, it simply doesn’t get much better than this. The Ravens are tied with AFC North rival Pittsburgh atop the standings and both teams are just one-half game behind the Bengals for the North lead. Baltimore has to be liking its chances, it’s offense is averaging 26.9 points to rank eighth overall int he league and it will be particularly motivated after barely holding on for a 20-12 win over Jacksonville last Sunday. Houston had won two in a row before losing two QB’s in last week’s 17-10 setback at Indianapolis; starter Ryan Fitzpatrick suffered a broken leg, while rookie Tom Savage suffered a knee injury. That means that either Thad Lewis or Case Keenum will get the start today; Keenum threw of 1,760 yards with nine TD’s and six INT’s in eight starts for the Texans last year. But whoever gets the call today will obviously benefit greatly from the expected return of WR Andre Johnson, who sat out last week with a concussion. From a trend-based angle, this play is also extremely strong, note that Baltimore has seen the total go OVER the number in five of seven road games and in three of its last four after two or more consecutive SU wins. And note that Houston has seen the total sail above the number in four of seven this year when playing the role of underdog. In my opinion, the conditions are indeed right for a higher-scoring shootout, play on the OVER.

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This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the OVER between the Tennessee Titans and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

For a number of different reasons I expect this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. I took this line right when it came out and got 40.5 and it’s since dropped, but regardless, I still love this selection. This is a revenge game for Jacksonville and QB Blake Bortles who fell to the Titans in Week 6. Tennessee has not won a single game since. Theses teams have been out of the playoff picture for a while now obviously and with the finish line in site, I think each can come into this game relaxed, an overall situation which I believe will lead to some points finally being put onto the scoreboard. Rookie QB Bortles will finish the season as starter, last week he’d go 21 of 37 for 210 yards and an INT. Tennessee will be using its third string QB today, Charlie Whitehurst was 10 of 24 for 203 yards after replacing an injured Jake Locker last week. Whitehurst was the starter in the 16-14 win over the Jags on October 12th. Bortles has to be liking his chances for a bounce back today though, in the setback to the Titans he threw for a season-high 336 yards and a TD, his team compiling 379 overall. Tennessee has dropped its last eight games, getting outscored by an average of 13.8 points during the slide; also note that the Titans have given up a whopping 33.7 during a six-game road skid. And from a trend based stand point, they don’t get much stronger than this, as note that Tennessee has seen the total sail above the posted number in three of four vs. division opponents this season, while Jacksonville has seen it go OVER the number in 15 of its last 28 after two or more consecutive SU losses. In my opinion, when taking into account all of the above factors, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the sharp move here.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the New Orleans Saints and the Chicago Bears.

For a number of different reasons I expect this total to fall below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. Both of these teams sit at 5-8, but the outcome of this game means much more to the Saints than the Bears obviously. New Orleans can take a firm grasp of the weak NFC South with a victory today after Atlanta fell at home to the Steelers yesterday. And with a game vs. the Falcons next week at home, New Orleans can ill afford “looking ahead” this week. Because of this, I think the Saints offense will look to control the tempo of this one from the outset. The Saints have uncharacteristically struggled at home, they leave New Orleans on an 0-4 losing streak, but they’ve won their last two road games at Carolina and Pittsburgh respectively. New Orleans though will need to shore up its defensive unit, it’s clearly once again been the team’s weakness all year as it’s allowed at least 27 points in five straight games: “Guys understand, hey, this is serious. It's their profession. It's our profession. It's going to be our job and the leaders of this team to lead. This is exactly when you find out who your guys are," head coach Sean Payton said of his defense earlier in the week. "If it's not happening ... then we're going to look at other options." The Bears defense can empathize, it’s allowed a league worst 29.1 PPG. But as I always like to say, desperation breeds motiviation, after giving up 75 points in back-to-back losses, I am expecting Chicago to come out with a collective chip on its shoulder today. The last time these teams played was approximately a year ago, and Bears QB Jay Cutler had just 7 points through 40 minutes vs. the visiting Saints, Chicago would eventually succumb 26-18. Cutler has once again been a turnover machine this season and because of that, we can definitely expect the home side to look to establish the run game early and often. The Bears have struggled in that department of late, but catch a break in facing a New Orleans unit which has given up an average of 183.8 during its 1-4 skid. Also note that Chicago will be without the services of star WR Brandon Marshall who was lost for the remainder of the season with a rib injury suffered in the loss to the Cowboys. In my opinion, when taking into account all of the above situational and motivational factors, this number is indeed just a little high; play on the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks.

For a number of different reasons I expect this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Seattle has turned things around of late and is once again positioning itself for a post-season push. The 49ers will need to sweep their remaining games and get some help if they have any shot at returning to the Playoffs. Despite two of the league’s best defenses going head to head today, I think the conditions are finally rigtht for a higher-scoring shootout. This is a revenge game for the 49ers after the ‘Hawks won 19-3 in San Francisco earlier in the year. San Francisco not only plays with revenge, but likely also for head coach Jim Harbaugh’s job, especially after the team fell 24-13 to the lowly Raiders last week. Seattle could obviously care less about the 49ers issues, the team is rolling on both sides of the ball and easily handled Philadelphia in last weeks 24-14 victory, outgaining the Eagles 440-139. QB Russell Wilson has thrown five TD’s and no INT’s and has a 110.6 passer rating during his team’s three game win skein. San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick has struggled this year and he’s always had difficulty vs. the Seahawks tough defense, but note that the 49ers have seen the total go OVER the number in both games that it’s played as an underdog this season and in seven of its last nine in the same position over the last two. And note that San Francisco has seen the total sail above the posted number in four of its six home games this season. In my opinion, when taking into account all of the above situational, motivational and trend based factors, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the sharp move here.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Kansas City Chiefs.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done here and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Despite losing three in a row, the Chiefs are still very much alive in the AFC playoff hunt. That said, the team can’t lose anymore and certainly will need to start building momentum if it has any chance of making a legitimate postseason run. Who better to face than the lowly Raiders then? This is also a revenge game after Oakland upset Kansas City for its first victory of the season a few weeks back. KC is one of five 7-6 teams still in the mix for the conference’s two wild-card spots which are currently occupied by the Steelers at 8-5 and the Chargers at 8-5 as well. Note that the Chiefs visit Pittsburgh next and then close the season vs. San Diego, which obviously puts added emphasis onto today’s contest. Oakland would promptly lose 52-0 at St. Louis after the victory over the Chiefs, but then rebounded for a 24-13 victory over the 49ers last week, but note that the Raiders are 2-20 away from home over the last three seasons and 0-6 so far this year. For me, this is simply a great situational play. After their win over KC, the Raiders immediately had a letdown in the loss to the Rams, I definitely am expecting the same thing here. KC is clearly motivated on a number of different levels, all signs do indeed point to the CHIEFS as the sharp move in this one.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Atlanta Falcons.

For a number of different reasons I look for this total to fall below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. Both teams are still in the playoff hunt, and as such I’m expecting a “playoff like” atmosphere. The Steelers are within one-half game of the Bengals for the AFC North lead after destroying Cincinnati 42-21 last Sunday. RB Le’Veon Bell had 235 yards from scrimmage and three TD’s: "We have a great opportunity in front of us, so I'm going to embrace it," Bell said afterwards. "This is the part of the year where things get a little tight, they get more exciting. Everybody in the locker room is excited about this last couple of weeks." Pittsburgh will obviously once again be leaning heavily on Bell today as it looks to control the pace and tempo of this contest throughout: “As long as he stays healthy, we'll keep feeding him," Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger said earlier in the week. "I've said for many, many weeks now that he's one of the best all-around backs in the game. I think every week he continues to prove that." The Falcons will surely have their hands full today, but at 5-8, they’re tied with New Orleans atop the NFC South still, and that’s despite falling 43-37 at Green Bay on Monday night. Note that the Falcons’ offense is very likely going to be without the services of star WR Julio Jones after he left with a hip injury in the fourth quarter vs. the Packers (if he does suit up, he definitely won’t be at 100%). With Jones sidelined, we can expect the home side to also lean on its RB, Steven Jackson and Atlanta average just 96.7 RYPG to rank 23rd in the league, but the team is 5-1 when running the ball at least 25 times. Note that Pittsburgh has seen the total dip below the posted number in both games that it’s played this year off a win vs. a division rival, while Atlanta has seen the total fall UNDER the number in two of three non-conference contests this season and in four of seven when playing the role of underdog. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the sharp move here.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns.

For a number of different reasons I’m expecting this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Both teams are still playoff hopeful, in this important divisional matchup I will expect each side to open up the playbook. The Browns are turning to rookie QB Johnny Manziel. Cleveland hopes that Manziel will one day be able to become its franchise QB: "I'm very excited to get out on the field with my teammates on Sunday and to have the opportunity to make the Dawg Pound proud," Manziel said after learning he’d get the start today. The Browns will certainly be motivated here after falling 25-24 at home to Indianapolis last Sunday: "We are trying to get the offense to perform at a higher level," said Browns coach Mike Pettine earlier in the week. "Johnny has worked very hard to earn this opportunity and it will be very important for every member of the offense to elevate their play for us to obtain our desired result." Manziel has seen limited action this year, but when he did he made the most of it on November 30th, finishing 5 of 8 for 63 yards, while also scoring on a 10-yard run in a 26-10 setback at Buffalo. The Bengals will obviously be equally as motivated today, especially after falling 42-21 at home to Pittsburgh last week. For a third time this year, Cincinnati would allow a franchise-record 500 total yards. Also note that the Bengals defense took a serious hit when Pro Bowl LB Vontaze Burfict was injured in last week’s loss. Cleveland can empathize with the defensive brain fart though as it would allow at least 23 points for a fourth straight game after blowing a 14 point lead to the Colts. Note that Cincinnati has seen the total go OVER the number in three of five vs. teams with winning records this year, while Cleveland has seen the total sail above the number in eight of its last 14 after two or more consecutive SU losses. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the sharp move here.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Miami Dolphins.

For a number of different reasons I think the Fish can keep this one close enough to at the very least, sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch which what I believe to be a healthy amount of points afforded to them. I jumped on this line right when it came out and got 9, it’s since come down a bit from that, but I still really love this selection regardless. Both teams come into this game highly motivated, Miami needs an outright win to keep its playoff hopes alive, while a victory for the home side will wrap up the division title. New England would survive a 23-14 effort in San Diego last week, bouncing back from a 26-21 loss at Green Bay the week before. But with cream puffs at the Jets next week and then at home to the Bills to end the year, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side “looking ahead” to those games. And that’s just the situational factor that Miami (and us!) is looking to take advantage of here. This is the second game between the two divisional rivals, Miami actually won 33-20 back on September 7th, Pats’ QB Tom Brady was 29 of 56 for 249 yards, while also losing two fumbles. Miami comes in motivated after last Sunday’s 28-13 setback to Baltimore: "I have a lot of faith and confidence in these guys," Dolphins coach Joe Philbin said earlier in the week. "We've got a huge challenge this week going up to New England. I told them in the locker room, we're going to find out a lot this week." Miami’s defense has been suspect the last few weeks but gets a big boost today with the expected return of Cortland Finnegan. And from a trend based stand point, this is about as strong a play as you could possibly ask for, note that the Dolphins are 4-2 ATS their last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while the Patriots are just 1-2 ATS vs. division opponents this season and only 6-8 ATS in the same position over the last two. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to MIAMI as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NFC WEST GAME OF MONTH on the St. Louis Rams.

For a number of different reasons, I like the surging home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Arizona is still clinging atop the NFC standings, but has definitely shown some cracks in the armor of late, one of which is its play on the road, losing its last two straight away from friendly confines. The Cardinals have been getting the job done with tough defensive play, as the offense has sputtered in recent weeks and simply put, I believe this fact will be the difference in the outcome of tonight’s contest. St. Louis will be looking to become the first team in 38 years to shut out three straight opponents. Since beating the Rams 31-14 on November 9th, Arizona has just four offensive TD’s in four games; QB Drew Stanton has thrown five INT’s in that span. Also note that the Cards are down top rusher Andre Ellingon, who was placed on season-ending injured reserved earlier this week. It’s hard not to imagine the Cardinals looking ahead to their game vs. Seattle next week as well, as remember, Arizona fell 19-3 in Seattle on November 23rd. This is as strong a “situational” play as you could possibly ask for. St. Louis is streaking, it’s outscored Oakland and Washington 76-0 over the last two weeks. St. Louis has dominated two pathetic teams in a row, but note that it’s won three straight in front of the home town crowd, beating Seattle 28-26 and holding Denver to its lowest point total of the season in a 22-7 win in the process. QB Shaun Hill has been pivotal, he’s completed 62 percent of his passes with six TD’s and two INT’s while starting the last four games. Note that Arizona is already 0-2 ATS this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while St. Louis is 2-1 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite. After taking all of the above factors into consideration, all signs do indeed point to ST. LOUIS as the sharp move here.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on the Atlanta Falcons.

For a number of different situational, motivational and trend based reasons, I think that the visitors can keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. One of the biggest reasons is “motivation.” Atlanta will be in firm control of the NFC South with an outright victory today and because of that, I am expecting the Falcons to give it their absolute best shot across the board. Obviously it’s not going to be easy, but when also taking into account that the Falcons do in fact come in with considerable momentum in having won three of their last four, this selection becomes stronger. The visitors are also expected to welcome back star WR Roddy White, who sat out last week with a minor ankle injury. And finally, I think that when you take into account that the Falcons are 3-1 ATS in their last four Monday Night contests and that the Packers are just 1-2 ATS vs. teams with losing records this year and 5-10 ATS in the same position over the last two, that there is no doubt that ATLANTA is the sharp move in this contest.

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This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the San Diego Chargers.

Philip Rivers is 0-5 vs. Tom Brady and while I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question tonight, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I think the home side takes this one down to the wire. The Patriots had their seven-game win streak snapped in last week’s 26-21 loss at Green Bay and I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot: “We've never played this Patriot team," Rivers said earlier in the week. "We're 0-0 against this group. There's a lot of guys in that locker room that have never played the Patriots in their life. You can't really say this team is 1-5 against them." Rivers is on fire this year and I think will be the difference. Surely he’s going to be motivated to finally get off the schneid vs. Brady, but he comes into this contest with an AFC-best 69.1 completion percentage and enters after his sixth three-TD performance of the season in last week’s thrilling 34-33 win at Baltimore (I had the Bolts in that one!). Obviously it won’t be easy vs. a determined Brady, who is also enjoying a resurgent season, but note that New England is just 3-4 ATS as a favorite this year and only 9-12 ATS in its last 21 away from friendly confines. And note that San Diego has excelled in this spot for bettors, it’s 4-2 ATS this year as the underdog and 3-2 ATS after two or more consecutive SU victories. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the CHARGERS as the savvy move here.

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This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the UNDER between the New York Giants and the Tennessee Titans.

For a number of different reasons, I believe this total will fall below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. Both of these teams came into the season with high expectations, but each has failed miserably. With 13 combined consecutive losses between the clubs, in my opinion, all signs point to the lower-number as the savvy move here. New York comes in off an extremely disheartening loss, it would blow a 21-0 lead to lose 25-24 to Jacksonville; the G-Men have now dropped seven straight. Note that the Giants are likely to be without the services of starting RB Rashad Jennings because of an ankle injury. New York’s defense has been a weak spot this year, but the unit remains resolute: "We're going to stay together no matter what," NY DE Jason Pierre-Paul said earlier in the week. "We're going to finish this season strong." The Titans can empathize, their 2-10 record is tied for the second-worst in the league. Tennessee has also struggled defensively of late, but I think that just adds fuel to the fire in this position and a date vs. the inconsistent Eli Manning and company is just what the doctor ordered in my opinion to get back on track on that side of the ball. The Titans will be extra motivated as well after last week’s debacle, falling 45-21 to Houston, allowing Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw a franchise-record six TD’s. Tennessee QB Zach Mettenberger has looked great at times this year and pretty pedestrian at others, he’ll have to move forward without the services of receivers Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright though, both now out with injury. From a trend based stand point, there is no question that this sets up as a solid selection, note that New York has seen the total go UNDER the number in 13 of its last 22 when playing the role of favorite, while Tennessee has seen it dip below the posted number in seven of its last 12 following a divisional contest. When taking into account all of the above factors, all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the sharp move here.

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This is a 10* SITUATIONAL ATS DESTRUCTION on the Washington Redskins.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I believe the home side will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. St. Louis is coming off a 52-0 win over Oakland last Sunday and suffice it to say, I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot. Conversely, the Redskins have not given up on the season and will be hungry for a victory here. It’s a perfect “situation” for us to exploit. Even during a 4-3 stretch, the Rams have remained pretty medicore offensively, their 348 yards vs. the Raiders was a season high. St. Louis has been leaning heavily on the run game, but Washington actually ranks ninth against it, limiting its opposition to 102.8 YPG, while the defense ranks 11th overall. Unfortunately, that hasn’t translated into victories for the Redskins. Yet! Certainly the home side’s defensive unit will be extra motivated here after allowing Andrew luck to throw for a season-high 487 yards in Sunday’s 49-27 loss in Indianpolis: “They've got to go out and make some plays," Redskins coach Jay Gruden said earlier in the week. "We need leaders to stand up defensively and take them by the throat, make sure they are playing fast." A bright spot for Washington last week though was the play of QB Colt McCoy who was 31 of 47 for 392 yards and three TD’s; McCoy has thrown just one INT in three games and his 1.1 INT percentage is among the best in the league. To say McCoy is motivated would be an understatement I think: "The most important thing is to find a way to get a win," McCoy told reporters on Thursday. "We're going back home this week, so I'll put my best foot forward and keep going." Despite last week’s offensive outburst, the Rams for the most part have been a work in progress on that side of the ball, QB Shaun Hill has started the last three games, while he was 13 of 22 for 183 yards and two TD’s last week, he had gone 18 of 35 for 198 yards, a TD and two INT’s for a 54.2 rating the previous game in a loss at San Diego. Note that St. Louis is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine when playing the role of favorite, while Washignton is 5-4 ATS in its last nine as a home dog of 3 points or less. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to WASHINGTON as the sharp move in this one.

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This is a 10* AFC EAST TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets.

While neither of these teams has been lighting up the scoreboard of late, I definitely feel the conditions are right for a higher-scoring shootout today and expect this total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. The Fish are coming off a couple of close losses and will be eager to take advantage of the hapless Jets, we can expect Miami to open up the playbook as it looks to establish the early lead. Miami would losi 39-36 at Denver last Sunday, it was its first loss after entering the fourth quarter with a lead of more than 10 in 14 years. Miami is still very much alive in the Playoff picture though, it sits one game behind a five-team group which is fighting for the two wild-card positions. If history is any precedence, then the Dolphins have to be loving their chances today as they’ve won five of the last six road meetings in the series. Miami QB Ryan Tannehill ranks third in the league with a 70.9 completion percentage and has thrown 12 TD’s to three INT’s in his last six games (it’s interesting to note that the Fish have outscored opponents 231-137 in the first three quarters). That doesn’t bode well for a Jets defense which ranks 30th in the league in giving up an average of 27.5 PPG. Last week New York lost 38-3 to the Bills in Detroit on Monday. The home side turns back to QB Geno Smith who hasn’t started since a 43-23 loss to Buffalo on October 26th. Smith will be leaning heavily on his running game, note that before managing just 92 last week, New York had averaged 170.5 rushing yards in a four game stretch (note that Miami gave up a season-high 201 rushing yards last week as well). Smith will also benefit from some timely injuries, as Miami CB’s Jamar Taylor and Cortland Finnegan are both out with injuries. Note that Miami has seen the total soar above the number in its last two Monday Night games, while New York has seen it go OVER the number in two of three vs. division opponents this season. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the savvy move here.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the OVER between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Both these teams are coming off a number of lower scoring games and I feel that the offensive units for both sides are prime for an explosion, giving us a number that will go easily over the posted number. The visiting Cincinnati Bengals will look to make it a third straight road win after dispatching New Orleans and Houston in strong offensive efforts. Wide receiver A.J Green is back and producing at a level that makes the entire Bengals offense explosive. Green has posted two big games in a row, catching 18 passes on 24 targets for 248 yards and one touchdown over that span. Cincinnati’s passing game should be a huge factor in this game against a Buccaneers team that is allowing the third-most passing yards per game this season, while only the Jets, Bears and Eagles have allowed more passing touchdowns The Bengals defense been impressive in slowing down the Saints and the Texans’ offense on this road trip but is due for a letdown playing a third straight road game in row. Tampa Bay ended a five-game slide with a 27-7 win over Washington on Nov. 16, but it committed four turnovers and blew a 10-point halftime lead in last week's 21-13 loss at Chicago. Believe it or not though, Tampa Bay is still in a playoff race with the overall ineffectiveness of the NFC South this season. Quarterback Josh McCown is looking for a bounce performance from last week and stated just how important this game is still: "Listen, it's crazy. I would say (no) team in our division expected to be where we're all sitting right now and it's unfortunate," McCown said. "But the reality of our division right now is that it is still up for grabs, and we're not in the favorable position but we're not out.” The Bucs offense against the Bengals defense is going to be a key in this game and McCown has the personnel to points on the board with massively talented Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson as wide receivers. Note the OVER is 7-4 in Tampa Bay non-conference games dating back three seasons now and 2-1 this season already. With this posted number being one of the lower ones we have seen for either team this past month, I think all signs point to a OVER total.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the San Diego Chargers.

The visitors come into this game as a large underdog and I feel they are getting well undervalued despite a good chance to win this game outright. In a close game, I recommend taking as many points as you can. The Chargers come in hot off two straight home wins over Oakland and St. Louis. The offense has struggled for the Chargers over the past few games but is starting to show some signs of life after putting up 27 points against a good Jeff Fisher led defense in the Rams. Philip Rivers was 29 of 35 for 291 yards, but it was the rushing attack that experienced the greatest awakening. Ryan Matthews led the way with 105 yards rushing on just 12 carries in his second game back. The Chargers team is starting to resemble the team we saw last season make a run at the end to earn a wild card spot thanks to good efforts as underdogs. I expect them to continue their run of good play here. Meanwhile, the home side Baltimore is also coming off two wins in row. The most recent was an impressive road win under the lights of Monday Night Football in New Orleans. Suffice to say, I am anticipating a letdown after winning on the big national stage. The Ravens will also have the disadvantage of a short work week to prepare for the Chargers in this spot. Philip Rivers really is the key in this game and I anticipate a big game from him as he goes up against a Ravens defense that ranks just 29th (264.6) against the pass in the entire league. We can’t forget a 16-13 game between these two teams last season in southern California that the Ravens managed to pull out. The Chargers will go for revenge as the underdog. Keep in mind they have been a profitable 14-10 as the underdog the past three seasons. With a close heavily contested game very likely here,  all signs point to the CHARGERS as the smart move here.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the OVER between the Carolina Panthers and the Minnesota Vikings.

The Panthers and the Vikings played a game last season that went higher than the posted number and I think we are set up for another offensive display in this situation. The visiting Panthers come into this game off a much needed bye week that should help the struggling offense. The Panthers offense managed to go above 20 points just once in the past five games. I expect Coach Ron Rivera and company made it big point of contention in the off-week. A boost to the Panthers offense will be the return of Mike Tolbert who ran for a touchdown score in the previous meetings between these teams last season. Tolbert is a pure fullback that should Cam Newton and the running games operate. The Panthers offense should have confidence against a team a Vikings unit it cut of 35 points in that game. Remember this is a still a massive game for the Panthers who still are looking to defend their division title despite only having a 3-7-1 record on the season. Carolina turned around its’ season with a victory in Minnesota last year, will be looking to do the same in 2014 by ending a six-game win less streak here. The home side Vikings come into this game having won two of three and encouraged with what they saw from rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater who had his best game as a pro last week in a divisional loss to Green Bay. Bridgewater tossed a season-best two touchdown passes and also rushed for a season-high 32 yards. The Vikings offense should have an even easier time against a Carolina defense that is allowing 27.3 points per game this year. Also note that the higher number is 4-1 in Carolina road games this season. An off week won’t be enough to solve all the problems the Panthers defense has had this year. With all signs pointing toward a higher scoring game, the OVER is a sharp move. 

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER between the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers.

To say this is an important divisional battle would be an understatement. There is no love loss between these two sides, I expect these playoff hopefuls to battle tough and look for this total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. These two teams hate each other, but neither can afford to dwell on what happened in the past, each must fully concentrate on what is going on right at this exact moment, this is the first of two meetings in 18 days. San Francisco is gunning for a sixth consecutive home victory over Seattle today. Of course, this is a revenge game for San Francisco after it lost 23-17 at Seattle in last season’s NFC title game. These teams have split the last four division titles and are both 7-4 and two games behind the first-place Cardinals, however coming off a 19-3 victory over Arizona on Sunday, Seattle holds the tiebreaker over the Lions and the 49ers for the final wild-card position. San Francisco is also coming off a victory, a 17-13 effort over Washington. Seahawks’ RB Marshawn Lynch has always played a big role in Seattle’s wins, he would run for 109 yards and a TD in the playoff victory over the 49ers last year and has gained 175 yards with a score on 39 carries in his last two at San Francisco. Not to be outdone, the 49ers Frank Gore gained 241 yards and averaged 7.3 per carry in his last two meetings in this series in the Bay area. These two teams are known for the defensive prowess, once again among the league leaders in that department, but note that Seattle has seen the total go OVER the number in three of five road games this year and in five of its last eight when playing with six or less days of rest. And note that San Francisco has seen the total sail above the number in 14 of its last 23 after two or more conecutive SU wins. I believe the conditions are finally right for a higher-scoring OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER between the Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions.

Both teams come in highly motivated, each is hungry for a win; suffice it to say, when the smoke clears at the end of this one I expect the total to eclipse the posted number as it comes down the stretch. Chicago has won a couple vs. weaker teams, but has really struggled in two straight road games vs. elite competition. The visitors will look to reverse that trend today and take advantage of a Lions team which will eagerly be trying to avoid a third-straight loss. It’s put up or shut up for the Detroit offense today, it’s been held to five field goals while dropping back-to-back road games to division leaders Arizona and New England: “If I knew what was wrong, I would have already fixed it," Lions’ receiver Calvin Johnson said following his team’s 34-9 loss to the Patriots last Sunday. "We still have time to get things going in the right direction." Detroit now trails the Packers by one game in the NFC North and is tied with San Francisco and Seattle for the final wild-card spot. Detroit needs to win this game and win big. Bears QB Jay Cutler actually summarized Detroit’s situation the most succintly: "Their offense is up and down at times but I'm sure they'll play well on Thursday," Cutler said yesterday. "They're reeling a bit, so we're going to get their very best shot. They're going to be ready for this one." Chicago has been dreadful on the road of late, especially defensively in giving up 106 points in its last two away from friendly confines. Note that defense will likely be without the services of LB Lance Briggs and CB Kyle Fuller to injury as well today. But Chicago does have momentum, it’s won two straight vs. Minnesota and Tampa Bay respectively and will look to surprise a stout Lions defensive unit today. So with that in mind, expect to see a heavy dose of RB Matt Forte, he’s tied for fourth in the league with 72 catches and third with 1,420 scrimmage yards; note that Forte posted 112 yards and rushed for two TD’s vs. the Bucs last week and has averaged 95.8 rushing yards and 5.4 per carry in his last five vs. the Lions. Chicago is also out for revenge today after losing both games vs. Detroit last year. Note that Chicago has seen the total go OVER the number in five of six road games and in six of seven as an underdog this season, while Detroit has seen it sail above the number in six of its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU losses. All signs point to the OVER as the sharp move here.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on the Baltimore Ravens.

I think the visitors are getting severely undervalued in this spot and while I do believe the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Home field advantage has been anything but for the Saints this year, they come into tonight’s game having lost two straight in New Orleans. Two weeks ago it was a 27-24 OT setback to San Fran, last week was a 27-10 loss to Cincinnati. Note that the home side will be down two starters today in receiver Brandin Crooks and safety Rafael Bush as well. Baltimore, like New Orleans, is in a divisional race of its own and ended a two-game slide with a 21-7 victory over Tennessee on November 9th, its bye-week coming at a fantastic time as the team has been able to heal up and focus for the final push: “Players took some time off and kind of emotionally and physically recharged a little bit," Ravens’ coach John Harbaugh said earlier in the week. "You don't realize how exhausted you are until you get a chance to take a deep breath and relax." RB Justin Forsett had a big game vs. the Titans, he rushed for 112 yards and two TD’s on 20 carries; and that doesn’t bode well for New Orleans as it is allowing 4.8 YPC and 146.3 RYP game over the last three weeks. Also note that the Saints have struggled against the pass virtually all year, ranking 24th at 255.2 YPG and they’re also tied for the fifth-fewest takeaways. The Ravens are equally as inept against the pass, but note that Baltimore is 3-0 ATS in non-conference games this year and 3-0 ATS vs. teams with losing records. And note that the Saints are already 0-2 ATS this year in non-conference games and just 2-3 ATS in front of the home town crowd. All signs point to the RAVENS as the sharp move here.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the New York Jets.

A great situational play as the Jets are finally coming off a convincing win and don’t even have to play the Bills in Buffalo; this is also a “revenge spot” after Buffalo annihilated New York earlier in the season. While the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The storm in Buffalo forced the Bills to miss practice on both Wednesday and Thursday. Note that Buffalo had last weekend off following a listless 22-9 loss at Miami on November 13th, the second straight setback has all but eliminated the team from playoff contention. Buffalo QB Kyle Orton was shaky in the game, completing 22 of 39 passes for 193 yards, failing to get the Bills into the endzone and also suffering a toe injury in the process. The Jets have a “new” QB under center as well as Mike Vick will once again get the start here, New York posted 275 total yards of offense in beating Pittsburgh 20-13 in Week 10 before entering its bye. Note that the Jets are 6-5 ATS in their last 11 in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while Buffalo is already 1-4 ATS this season when playing the role of favorite. All signs do indeed point to NEW YORK as the savvy move here.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Seattle Seahawks.

Here’s a huge divisional battle, Arizona is the best team not only in the competitive NFC West, but also in the NFL. The defending champions have struggled for the most part this year, but when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I look for the home side to take care of business and send the Cardinals a resounding message. This is also a revenge game for Seattle after Arizona handed the Seahawks their only home loss in 2013. Arizona has won six straight since losing to Denver in Week 5 and has continued its success despite some offensive issues, most notably in losing QB Carson Palmer to season-ending knee injury in Week 10; so far Drew Stanton has been decent, he’s now 3-1 as a starter this year. The Cards are coming off a 14-6 win over Detroit last week. Note that star WR Larry Fitzgerald suffered a sprained MCL on Sunday. I think that Arizona is going to be overwhelmed today though, the one two running punch of Marshawn Lynch and QB Russell Wilson is a formidable one. From a trend based stand point, there’s no question that this is a sound play as well, note that Arizona is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9 points range, while Seattle is a perfect 7-0 ATS its last seven as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. I think the Cardinals numerous injuries on the offensive side of the ball finally catch up to them here and the home side pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover; play on SEATTLE.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Cleveland Browns and the Atlanta Falcons.

Neither of these teams has been lighting up the scoreboard recently, but for a number of different reasons, when the smoke clears at the end of this one I look for this total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. Cleveland gets a big boost offensively today with the return of WR Josh Gordon, he’ll be looking to help his team avoid back-to-back losses for the first time this season. Certainly the Browns will be motivated here, last weeks listless 23-7 home loss to Houston on Sunday dropped them behind Cincinnati and Pittsbrugh in the AFC North, the setback snapping a three-game win streak. Note that Cleveland sustained significant injuries on the defensive side of the ball when LB’s Karlos Dansby and Jabaal Sheard fell; and note that the Browns were already missing DE Phil Taylor and linemen Armonty Bryant and John Hughes. The injuries were noticeable last week as Cleveland would give up a season-high 213 rushing yards vs. a Houston team which was playing without star RB Arian Foster. But as mentioned off the top, the return of the dyanmic Gordon will see Cleveland really open up the offensive playbook today, I’m expecting the visitors to put some points on the board (note that Gordon set a franchise-record with 1,646 receiving yards in 2013 and became the only player in NFL history with consecutive 200-yard games in the regular season). Gordon and company will look to take advantage of an Atlanta defense which allows a league-worst 281.2 passing yards per game. And to add insult to injury, while Atlanta does have seven INT’s to its credit over the past four games, three of those were courtesy of Robert Alford, who is now expected to miss at least two weeks with a wrist injury. The home side comes in with some momentum though, after losing five straight it’s now won back to back over Tampa Bay and Carolina. The Falcons are tied with New Orleans atop the dismal NFC South and are actually in control of their own destiny in having gone 4-0 in the division thus far: "We're now back in the driver's seat of our destiny," Atlanta RB Steven Jackson said earlier in the week. "That's where we want to be. Ultimately you have to continue to win. You can't look for anybody else to help you out." QB Matt Ryan is fifth in the league in averaging 279.3 YPG and has just one INT over his last four games. A couple of suspect defenses facing off against a couple of explosive offenses. Note that Cleveland has seen the total go OVER the number in three of four as an underdog this year, while Atlanta has seen it sail above the number in two of its three home games thus far. When taking all of the above factors into account, I feel that this number is just a little low; play on the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Oakland Raiders.

While I won’t go so far as to call for its first win of the season, I do think that Oakland will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and like the Raiders to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel is a healthy amount of points afforded to them here. Talk about two teams moving in opposite directions. The Chiefs have postseason aspirations and can ill afford a letdown here as they look to notch their sixth straight win. The Raiders are looking to avoid a 17th straight loss. KC is coming off a 24-20 win over Seattle and I think is primed for a letdown here. A short week on national television after beating the defending champs, I think Oakland can take advantage. Also note, this is a “look ahead” spot as well as Kansas City will play the Broncos in a revenge scenario under the lights in front of the home town crowd next week. KC is not unaware of the fact that this is a “trap” game, but despite how much teams say they are prepared for these types of contests, invariably they’re not. Think about it. You just beat the defending champs, a few days later you have to play the absolute dregs of the league while looking ahead to a prime time matchup vs. an arch nemesis. From a situational standpoint, it doesn’t get much better than this. It hasn’t been all doom and gloom for Oakland either, it’s actually allowed just 12 sacks this year, which ranks second fewest in the league. And that’s good news for the continued development of rookie Derek Carr, who has shown flashes of his College brilliance at times this year. Last week Carr was 16 of 24 for 172 yards in a chess match loss with San Diego. And to say this is a “revenge” game for Oakland would obviously be a massive understatement. A fantastic situational dual spot wager, play on OAKLAND.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts.

Neither of these teams are known for their defensive prowess, but I believe the conditions are right for a lower-scoring battle and definitely feel that the value in this contest lies on the UNDER. QB’s Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck face off in the Sunday nighter, but I think it will be the defenses and special teams which get the most recognition in tomorrow’s summary headlines. The Pats come in off their bye week after beating the Broncos at home. The Colts are coming off a 40-24 win over the Giants on November 3rd and are also coming into this contest off their bye week. As good as Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck has been, for some reason he’s had difficulties vs. the Patriots whenever he’s faced them and New England is coming off a great defensive performance vs. Peyton Manning, holding the prolific pivot to a season-low 80.9 passer rating. From a trend based stand point, there is no question that this is a sound play, note that the Pats have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five road games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5, while the Colts have seen it dip below the posted number in five of their last seven as a home favorite of 3 points or less and in 12 of their last 21 in front of the home town crowd overall. This can still be a higher-scoring game and fall below this sky-high number and that’s exactly what I’m expecting; play on the UNDER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Green Bay Packers.

These teams are known for their offensive proficiency, but for a number of different situational and trend based reasons, I feel this total will ultimatley stay below this sky-high number once the final whistle sounds. QB’s Aaron Rodgers and Mark Sanchez have their teams surging, but I think it will be the defenses and special teams which decide the outcome today and in a contest which will resemble a “chess match”, I envision field position will also be a big factor in the final result. This is an important game for both teams, Green Bay remains one point behind Detroit for the division lead, while Philadelphia has a half-game division lead after smashing Carolina 45-21 on Monday night. As good as the Packers have been offensively of late, note that they’ve given up just four passing TD while holding opposing QB’s to an NFL-low 64.2 rating at Lambeau this year. The Eagles have been susceptible through the air, but note that LB Connor Barwin has been a stand out, he’s tied for second in the NFL with 10.5 sacks after regestering 3.5 vs. the Panthers last week. Note, having already seen the total go UNDER the number in two of three this year after two or more consecutive SU victories, that the Eagles have seen it dip below the posted number in seven of their last ten in the same position over the last two. And note that Green Bay has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 11 off a win vs. a division rival. I believe there are enough significant situational and trend based factors which all do indeed point to the UNDER, to warrant pulling the trigger on a 10* top play for this one.

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This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the OVER between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins.

Both of these teams needs a win here today to keep their postseason dreams alive and as such, I’m expecting each to come out swinging for the fences and ultimately look for this total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. Note that both are coming off of losses as well and each sits at 5-4, tied for second in the AFC East. This is a revenge game for Miami after Buffalo beat it 29-10 on September 14th: “You lose three in a row to anybody, it's not going to feel good," Miami CB Brent Grimes said earlier in the week. "The Bills play us very well. It'll be a huge game. To get a win on Thursday night at home would feel great for us." Last week the Fish ran into a buzzsaw of a defense in their 20-16 setback at Detroit which snapped a three-game win skein. Miami struggled with the run last week, but will look to get untracked against a Bills unit which allowed 127 in their 17-13 home loss to Kansas City: "We definitely lost an opportunity," Buffalo coach Doug Marrone said afterwards. "Now we're going to have to fight our way back and find a way to win our next game." Buffalo has struggled in the red zone, but I think will have some opportunities today if it just cleans up its play, its currently tied with Miami for seventh in the league in turnover differential at plus-5. Note that QB Kyle Orton has looked decent since taking over for an ineffective EJ Manuel in throwing 10 TD’s to three INT’s. And note that Buffalo has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 14 vs. division opponents, while Miami has seen it sail above the number in three of four home games thus far. In my opinion, this number is just a little low, play on the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the Carolina Panthers.

For a number of different reasons I believe the Panthers can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Philadelphia Eagles would beat Houston 31-21 last Sunday and that victory coupled with the Cowboys 28-17 home loss to Arizona catupulted them into first place in the NFC East. But note, the win came at a big price as starting QB Nick Foles was lost with a broken clavicle. That means that oft-maligned Mark Sanchez will be under center for the home side; he’d finish 15 of 22 for 202 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s in place of Foles. The Eagles will also have to play without MLB DeMeco Ryans for the rest of the year after he tore his achilles on Sunday. Also note that RG Todd Herremans is also gone for the year with injury. Carolina has an opportunity to regain the division lead with an outright upset win today after the Saints lost in OT to the San Francisco 49ers. The 3-5-1 Panthers are still very optimistic: "I've been in a race like this before, we all have," coach Ron Rivera said earlier in the week. "It ends up being the team that comes back, that gets up and keeps fighting. The next thing you know, you're right in the thick of things." Note that the Panthers benefit from the expected return of linemen Amini Silatholu, Trai Turner and Byron Bell after all three sat with injuries to the Saints; and that’s obviously great news for QB Cam Newton, who is coming off a career-worst effort in the setback to New Orleans. Note though that Newton threw for 306 yards and two TD’s and ran for 52 with a pair of scores in a 30-22 win at Philadelphia back in 2012. Also note that Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7.5 points range and 5-3 ATS after two or more consecutive SU losses, while the Eagles are just 7-8 ATS their last 15 vs. teams with losing records and only 2-4 ATS their last six as a home fav in the 3.5 to 7.5 points range. You may want to also consider “sprinkling a little” on the money line as well, in my opinion all signs point to the PANTHERS as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers.

Divisional contests are always the most important, and as such, I believe these two teams battle it out on the national stage and for a number of different reasons ultimately expect this total to sneak below the posted number. Both teams are coming off their bye, I think chemistry will be an issue early, a perfect situational factor that we can take advantage of with this selection. Chicago has lost four of its last five. The Packers were man-handled in a 44-23 loss in New Orleans on October 26th. Certainly the Bears will be motivated here, they’re just 1-8 their last nine in the series. Note that the last time these teams got together, the Packers would prevail 27-20 on November 4th, 2013. Chicago will also be extra motivated after getting destroyed 51-23 in New England before its break. Chicago’s defense has been a disaster so far, but with a week off to re-focus and prepare, I think coach Marc Trestman will have his unit ready to play: “We will not quit on the season. We will not quit on ourselves. We're not going to quit on each other," general manager Phil Emery assessed earlier in the week. "We feel, without question, we built a work ethic, a system of doing things in this building is in place to have the consistency we need to win. We're disappointed because we haven't done that." Note that the Bears defense will benefit greatly from the return of LB Lance Briggs after sitting for three games with a rib injury. Also note that CB Kyle Fuller and Chris Conte are also expected to play today after missing the last few games with injury. When the Bears have the ball, expect to see a heavy dose of the run game, the Packers weakness is its rush defense, allowing a league-worst 153.5 per game. Note though that Chicago’s offense took a hit with TE Matellus Bennett going down with a rib injury. Note that Chicago has seen the total go UNDER the number in both games following its bye over the last two seasons, while Green Bay has seen it go UNDER the number in both games it’s played over the last two seasons following its bye. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the UNDER as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Miami Dolphins and the Detroit Lions.

These are two surging teams, both have been excellent defensively, and each has been equally as impressive on the offensive side of the ball. Miami is coming off a 37-0 destruction of San Diego, Ryan Tannehill posted a career-best 125.6 passer rating as the Fish would end up with a season-high 441 yards of offense. Tannehill has completed 68 percent of his passes over his past five games while averaging 8.2 YPA with a 104.1 rating. Miami has averaged the leagues fifth-most points (30.6), since Week 4. This week’s opponent is the best defensive team in the league, and while he’ll surely have a much more difficult time that he did vs. the Chargers vanilla unit, I still feel that Tannehill will have a productive day, he’s simply firing on all cylinders right now, making the right plays and looks fantastic overall. Detroit is coming off its bye after storming back for a 22-21 win over Atlanta in London two weeks ago. Matt Stafford had 325 yards and two TD’s and will welcome back big time play makers Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush. One other player to keep your eyes on today is Golden Tate, who has 55 receptions for 800 yards this year and who is coming off back to back 150 yard performances. Note that Miami has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten non-conference games, while Detroit has seen it eclipse the number in seven of its last ten in the same position. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the OVER as the sharp move in this one.

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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the San Francisco 49ers.

Desperation breeds motivation, San Francisco has looked brilliant at times this year and pretty pedestrian at others, but I think has a real shot at winning this one outright. Both teams are at 4-4. New Orleans though comes in a bit complacent I think today, its back to back wins have propelled it into first in the week division. San Francisco on the other hand has dropped two straight and finds itself three games behind West-leading Arizona and a game back of Seattle. The visitors will be especially motivated here after last week’s ugly 13-10 home loss to division rival St. Louis. QB Colin Kaepernick was sacked eight times last week after being sacked just six times in the first seven games; Kaepernick definitely catches a break this week though vs. this suspect Saints unit. New Orleans comes in off a 28-10 win over Carolina but the victory came at a cost; already down RB’s Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson, FB Austin Johnson was lost due to an injury. San Francisco gets a bit healthier defensively this week though with the expected return of LB Patrick Willis. Note that San Francisco is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last two seasons after two or more consecutive SU losses, while New Orleans is just 5-6 ATS the last two years after two or more consecutive SU victories. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to SAN FRANCISCO as the savvy move in this one.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the the UNDER between the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots.

I jumped on this total the very second it came out and got 56 and it’s since come down from that, but regardless, I still love this pick and believe that these two normally high-scoring teams will play to a more of a “chess match” style of game where field position becomes paramount in deciding the outcome and expect this total to ultimately fall below the posted number. "At the end of the day, it's Broncos versus Patriots," Denver coach John Fox said earlier in the week. This is a big game with many story lines for each side, but the bottom line is that that the best record in the AFC is on the line in this one. When these teams played last year, Denver would lead 24-0 at halftime, but Tom Brady orchestrated a late rally and New England would win 34-31 in OT. Both teams are coming off super high-scoring games as well, Peyton Manning had three TD’s in last week’s 35-21 win over San Diego, while Brady and company would destroy Chicago 51-23 last week. Despite these teams being unquestionable offensive juggernauts, it’s important to note that each has displayed a few strong UNDER tendencies in this position, most notably: Denver has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 14 after a divisional contest, while New England has seen it dip below the number in five of its last eight as an underdog. While the majority of the public jumps on the over, we’re going the other way, I think this game is going to be a scrappy, slower-paced affair and that all signs point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this one.

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This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Washington Redskins.

For a number of different reasons, I like the visitors to keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door with the large spread they’ve been afforded. Dallas is 6-1 and is one of the best team’s in the league. Hmm? Even at 6-1, do you feel like the Cowboys are in fact one of the league’s elite? I certainly don’t. RB DeMarco Murray and Tony Romo have been excellent thus far, but I think will finally take a step back here against a determined and hungry Washington team. The league’s top run game has obviously helped the oft-maligned Romo who has an NFL-high 69.2 completion percentage to date. But as I said off the top, I think the Redskins can surprise the home side today, they broke a four-game slide last week with a 19-17 win over Tennesee, backup QB Colt McCoy was inserted in relief of an ineffective Kirk Cousins and was 11 for 13 for 128 yards and a TD. Note, RG III could make an appearance today as well: “I’ve already made the decision. I've said it's going to be Colt," coach Jay Gruden said earlier in the week. "I've said Robert will be the wild card, possibly, if he's ready to go, and that still hasn't been decided yet." This is also a double revenge game after the Cowboys took both divisional contests in 2013. Note that Washington is in fact 8-6 ATS in its last 14 vs. divisional opponents, while Dallas is 0-2 ATS the last two years on MNF and just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 in front of the home town crowd. It’s true that Washington has dropped eight straight to NFC East foes, but streaks (both good and bad), were made to be broken; while I won’t call for an outright upset, I do definitely feel this is too many points to be giving up to the undervalued visiting side; play on WASHINGTON.

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This is a 10* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between the Green Bay Packers and the New Orleans Saints.

We have a couple of extremly proficient offensive teams going head to head on Sunday night, but for a number of different reasons I feel that this total will sneak below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. Green Bay has rolled to four straight victories behind the great play of QB Aaron Rodgers, most recently routing the Panthers 38-17 last week. However, the visitors will face a desperate and hungry 2-4 home side; note that a loss would give the Saints their worst seven-game start to a season under Sean Payton. Take note though, the Saints are still completely in the playoff picture as Carolina leads the NFC South as just 3-3-1: “That's a ton of football," Payton said. "Basically we're finished (with), I believe a third of the season, a little bit more than that. But the focus for us will be right on Green Bay." The home side will be especially eager to atone for last week’s 24-23 setback to Detroit in which it allowed the Lions to rally for two TD’s with just 3:38 left to play. So while most of the wagering public will be piling on the OVER (note that this total opened at 54.5 and has since been bet up to 56 at some places), I think the value is in going the other way. I believe Green Bay comes in a bit flat footed and the Saints intensity on the defensive side of the ball catches it off-guard; note the Packers have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their  last four as a road dog of 3 points or less, while New Orleans has seen it dip below the number in two of its last three as a home fav of 3 points or less. The situation, the numbers and the trends all do indeed point to the UNDER as the sharp wager in this contest.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Seattle Seahawks and the Carolina Panthers. 

When you think of these two teams, what’s the first thing that comes to mind? For most it would be smash mouth defensive play, but that’s not been the case this year, each comes in having played to numerous OVERS. Suffice it to say, I think that trend ends today and look for this total to sneak below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. Both teams come in hungry, the reigning champs are looking to avoid a three-game slide, something they haven’t had to endure in three years. Seattle lost 30-23 at Dallas at home, followed by a trade of WR Percy Harvin and then concluded with a 28-26 setback at St. Louis on Sunday: “We've got work to do, we've got work to do to get consistent," coach Pete Carroll said. Seattle’s defense ranked first last year but has given up at least 300 yards in four games and ranks just 19th overall this season. The Hawks have won three straight over Carolina, including last season’s 12-7 effort; Panthers’ QB Cam Newton completed only 53.8 percent of his passes for 266 yards and a TD. After throwing for two TD’s and running in another on the ground in a 37-37 tie with the Bengals on October 12th, Newton was held to 246 total yards in last Sunday’s listless 38-17 loss at Green Bay. Carolina was second in defense only to the Hawks last year but ranks 29th this season: "What are we going to do? Quit? Absolutely not," Newton assessed earlier in the week. "We have to keep going, keep fighting and we'll figure out a way to get out of this." Note that the Carolina offense is down a few key pieces because of injury including RB’s Fozzy Whittaker and DeAngelo Williams as well as WR Philly Brown. Note that Seattle has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five off a loss vs. a division rival, while Carolina has seen it dip below the number in five of its last six vs. NFC West division opponents. The situation, the numbers and the trends all do indeed point to the UNDER as the sharp wager in this contest.

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This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the New York Jets.

While they continue to lose, the Jets are looking much better on both sides of the ball and I think can put it all together today and take advantage of a Bills team which is now trending in the opposite direction; when the final whistle sounds, I like New York to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Buffalo comes in injured on the offensive side of the ball and I think that will be too much for it overcome. Buffalo actually ranked second with 144.2 rushing YPG last year, but the club has dropped to 19th in 2014 and the situation got a lot worst with co-starters Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller both going down in last week’s 17-16 home win over the Vikings on Sunday. This is going to put an inordinate amount of pressure on QB Kyle Orton and I like New York to finally take advantage today. After losing 31-0 at San Diego on October 5th and 31-17 to Denver the following week, the Jets took New England down to the wire last week and racked up 423 yards in the process. RB Chris Ivory had 107 rushing yards and a TD and had 98 yards and a second in the most recent meeting with Buffalo, a 37-14 road loss back on November 17th. QB Geno Smith is coming off his best outing of the season, he was 20 of 34 for 225 yards and a TD with zero INT’s. And now Smith has a new target to throw to in Percy Harvin. Note that Buffalo is 0-6 ATS the last two seasons as a road dog of 3 points or less, while New York is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 vs. division opponents. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the JETS as the savvy move in this one.

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This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the Houston Texans and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

I think these teams are going to play to a hard-fought UNDER on Monday night. Both clubs come in at 3-3, the Steelers have actually alternated wins and losses through their first six and will be extremely motivated to atone for a listless 31-10 setback at Cleveland last weekend. Tonight’s the night the Steelers can make their move though as this is the first of three straight in front of the home town crowd (note that Pittsburgh has won six of eight at Heinz): "There's no time to panic," said Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger earlier in the week. "You guys are waiting for us to panic. We're not panicking." Roethlisberger though has been his most inconsistent of his career so far this season, last week he posted a campaign-low 64.4 passer rating, going just 21 of 42 for 228 yards and an INT. “Big Ben” will need to be wary of Texans defensive star JJ Watt, who leads the league with 20 hits on QB’s so far, posting four of his team’s ten total sacks. Also note that Houston is expected to have rookie LB Jadeveon Clowney back in the line-up, out since Week 1 with a knee issue. The Texans has been plagued by slow starts this year and that was once again the case vs. the Colts last week, after falling behind 24-0 after one quarter, the team would storm back, only to come up short in the 33-28 setback; note that it was the fifth time this year that Houston has been shutout in the first quarter, including in four straight with the offense averaging a paltry 40.5 yards in the process. And that doesn’t bode well for the Texans as Pittsburgh has been giving up just 44.7 YPG in the first quarter so far this season. Houston’s main issue is a big one, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is in my opinion, not a long term solution for the team, he’s been particularly slow in the first quarters of games as well, he in fact ranks last in the AFC with a 58.9 passer rating in that frame (and note that that number drops to a miserable 21.8 over the past four games). Both of these defenses catch a break this week, neither team’s offense is playing with much chemistry or consistency right now: note that Houston has seen the total go UNDER the number in 15 of its last 16 when playing the role of underdog and in 12 of its last 13 after two or more consecutive SU losses. And note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go UNDER the number in 14 of its last 24 as a favorite and in both MNF games it’s played over the last two seasons. I think that the situation, the numbers and the trends all do indeed clearly point to the UNDER as the savvy wager in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Indianapolis Colts.

These are two teams which can put points on the board at a prodigious rate, but I feel the conditions are right for a slower-paced “chess match” style of contest where field position becomes paramount in the outcome, so in my opinion all signs point to this one falling below the posted number. I think the home side comes in a bit complacent here, and that’s going to be dangerous vs. this hungry Bengals team which will be desperate to turn things around after a sluggish patch. Cincinnati is coming off a couple of high-scoring games, a poor 43-17 setback to New England and then last week’s 37-37 tie with Carolina. However, it’s not all doom and gloom for the Bengals who still lead the AFC North: "I can't look behind. It does no good looking back," coach Marvin Lewis assessed earlier in the week. "There's too much ahead to look back all the time, and there's too much change in the future to look back. You're wasting your time look backwards." After back-to-back losses, the Colts have reeled off four-straight wins led by QB Andrew Luck who leads the NFL with 1,987 passing yards and 17 TD’s. Last week Indianapolis held on for a 33-28 win over the Texans on Thursday night. Note that Cincinnati will once again be without the services of star receiver AJ Green because of a toe injury; expect the team to lean even more on RB Giovanni Benard who had a career high 137 rushing yards on 18 carries last week. If Cincinnati has any shot at pulling off an upset, obviously it needs to tighten up on the defensive end, it’s been a weakness the last two games: "We really have to go back and just do our jobs on defense," Lewis said. "We're trying to do too much, and guys need to relax and do their thing, and keep doing your job consistently play after play after play." Note that the Bengals have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 14 as an underdog, while Indianapolis has seen it dip below the posted number in four of its last six as a home favorite of 3 points or less. I feel that the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the UNDER as the savvy wager in this contest.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Carolina Panthers and the Green Bay Packers.

Carolina has seen the total go OVER the number in four of six this year, including the last four straight and last week’s 37-37 tie with Cincinnati. Green Bay has seen the total go OVER the number in five of six, including three straight and last week’s come from behind 27-24 win over Miami. While they haven’t played against each other since 2011, it’s still significant to note that the total has gone OVER the number in the last four in the series. All of these OVER trends collide on Sunday afternoon, making the UNDER the sharp wager in this contest. "Any time you overcome adversity, you have this experience to build off. That's why you play. This is an excellent character win," said Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy after last week’s last second victory. "We knew this would be a tough game coming down in the heat. We said we weren't worried about it and we weren't worried about it, but the fact is we're from Wisconsin." QB Aaron Rodgers numbers are a bit skewed though, note that he is in fact averaging just 236.5 YPG so far. Cam Newton and the Panthers have also been putting up some big numbers, before last week’s high-scoring tie, they beat Chicago 31-24 in Week 5. Note that Newton is going to get some much needed help back this week with the expected returnt of RB Jonathan Stewart who has been out with a knee injury. Green Bay will also be looking to establish its run game, Rodgers has had to carry the load as the Packrs are averaging only 94.8 rushing yards to rank 24th in the league, down significantly from last season’s mark of 133.5; expect the home side to make this a point of emphasis today as the Panthers are giving up a league-worst 5.5 per attempt. While the majority goes one way, we’ll go the other, this total is higher than what it should be in my opinion, all signs point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the New Orleans Saints.

The Lions own the league’s best defensive unit, but I think are going to come back down to Earth today vs. a determined Drew Brees and company; while the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. And I think the Saints’ defense comes to play today, Detroit’s offense is stalled right now and I think will once again have its hands full this afternoon. Note that Brees is 4-0 as a starter vs. Detroit, completing 75.2 percent of his passes for an average of 379.3 yards with 14 TDs and one INT for a stellar 133.8 rating. While his 7.2 yards per attempt is his lowest mark in four years this season, note that Brees still ranks second in the NFL in averaging 314.8 YPG, not surprisingly then the Saints come in as the No. 2 offense at 442.8. Detroit amassed just 255 yards of offense last week but would still beat the hapless Vikings 17-3 last Sunday. Situationally, this is also a great play for us as New Orleans is coming off its bye following a momentum and confidence building 37-31 home win over the Bucs on October 5th. While New Orleans will likely be without the services of star TE Jimmy Graham again this week, note that they still put a season high for points and yards with 511 in the win over the Bucs without him as well. So while the Saints defense hasn’t been setting any records this year, there’s no question that it catches a break in facing the anemic Lions unit. Note that Detroit is likely to once again be without the services of star receiver Calvin Johnson because of an ankle injury; also note that RB Reggie Bush is still dealing with ankle injury as well. Note that New Orleans is 2-0 ATS the last two seasons following its bye week, while Detroit is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a victory over a division rival. I think Brees has one of his most productive games and his defense follows suit; play on the SAINTS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Oakland Raiders.

If you are a long time follower or client of mine, you know that I am primarily a situational handicapper which also likes to take advantage of lop-sided trends and numbers. Yesterday I had a play on North Carolina which was 0-5 ATS vs. Notre Dame which was 4-1 ATS; that was a great cover for me. Here is another such situation, this time on the pro gridiron: San Diego is 5-0 ATS while Oakland is 0-4 SU (just 2-2 ATS). With a week off to prepare for this game, I think the home side comes in focused and catches a complacent Chargers team off-guard, ultimately coming away with at least the ATS cover. San Diego comes in banged up, it’s going to have to start its fourth center after Doug Legursky went down with a knee injury in last Sunday’s 31-0 home win over the Jets. Note that the Bolts also lost backup RB Donald Brown to a concussion (starter Ryan Mathews has been out since Week 2). Slowing down red hot Philip Rivers will be top priority for Raiders’ interim head coach Tony Sporano, the Chargers pivot has thrown for an average of 345.8 yards in his last four road games vs. the Raiders. Expect to see a heavy dose of the run game today for the home side to help in trying to limit the time that Rivers is on the field, Sporano has already said he’ll make it a point of emphasis for his team which ranks last in the league. Rookie QB Derek Carr will once again be under center, he was an effecient 16 for 25 for 146 yards, one TD and one INT in the London game. Note that San Diego is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven “October” games, while Oakland is 2-0 ATS the last two season following its bye week. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to OAKLAND as the sharp wager in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the New York Jets.

The panic button has officially been “hit” in New York, I think the desperate Jets keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. This is a classic case of “David vs. Goliath” as Peyton Manning faces a New York defense which is tied with Jacksonville for the second-most TD’s through the air allowed. The Jets have also managed just one pick so far. Manning posted 479 yards in last week’s 41-20 win over Arizona. New York though does have some positives on the defensive side of the ball, as it’s tied with Buffalo for the league’s most sacks and has allowed just 320.8 YPG, including only 83 on the ground. Of course, that turns the one dimensional Bronco offense even more so; note that Denver ranks 29th in the league in rushing with an average of just 79.5. And note that starting RB Montee Ball has now been lost for a few weeks because of a groin injury. Jets’ coach Rex Ryan knows his job is on the line: "You're right, if that's the case and we don't get this thing on the right track, I don't think for a minute I'll be here," he said on a radio show this week. "I know I won't, but I believe this team will right itself and we'll find a way." Embattled QB Geno Smith will once again get the start despite his horrid first half vs. the Chargers (backup Mike Vick wasn’t much better). Note that Smith will definitely benefit from the expected return of receiver Eric Decker who missed last week with a hamstring issue. It’s important to note, already 0-1 ATS this year in games played on “turf”, Manning and company are just 2-7 ATS their last nine in the same position. And note that New York is 7-6 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 10.5 points range. I am not calling for an outright upset, but do expect the JETS to sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Houston Texans.

While the outright win isn’t out of the question in this game, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can on what I feel is an undervalued home side. This is a big game for both teams, but obviously Houston will be the hungrier; the Texans are coming off a dreadful 2013/14 season, but with a win tonight can take over sole possession of the AFC South and avoid a fourth consecutive loss in this series. The Texans will once again be leaning heavily on RB Arian Foster who had 157 yards and two TD’s in Sunday’s 20-17 OT loss at Dallas; Foster is second in the league in averaging 101.0 YPG thus far. Note that Foster has been money on the short week of work as well, he’s averaged 5.3 yards per carry while rushing for 343 yards and four TD’s in three “Thursday Night” contests: “It's a huge game for us," Texans’ offensive tackle Duane Brown said last night. "The good thing about the Colts is that we're very familiar with them. Of course you have a different game plan than we've had in years past, but as far as the personnel and things like that we kind of know what to expect. So that makes it a little bit easier, but it's never easy." Indianapolis has won seven straight “Thursday night” games, but I think runs into a buzzsaw today against this talented and revenge minded Texans’ defensive unit. If ever the Colts were going to have a letdown, I think this week qualifies, they’ve been playing at an extremely high level, they’ve outscored their last three opponents 105-47; a quick turn around on the road and a nationally televised divisional contest is asking a lot, even for QB Andrew Luck. Note, the Colts offense has taken a hit as well, as starting guards Hugh Thornton and Jack Mewhort will miss the game with injuries. One other player to keep your eyes on today is the home side’s Andre Johnson who has averaged 158.3 yards while totaling 27 receptions and five TD’s in his last three home games against the Colts. I think the situation favors the home side; play on the TEXANS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Seattle Seahawks and the Washington Redskins.

For a number of different reasons I look for this total to sneak below the posted number. Seattle returns to the Nation’s capital after a bye-week, it would hold on for a thrilling 26-20 OT win over the Broncos last time out: “I don't think anyone ever doubts Russell. He's just too good," Seattle tight end Zach Miller said of his Super Bowl Champion QB after the victory. Note, Washington will definitely have its hands full here, Seattle knows the importance of this game as it will now play 13 weeks in a row. It’s also important to note that Seattle has won eight straight on Monday nights. The Redskins will surely be hungry as well to atone for last week’s 45-14 home loss to the Giants on Thursday night, QB Kirk Cousins is coming off his worst start in getting picked off a career-high four times. Cousins and the rest of the Skins offense will be leaning heavily on RB Alfred Morris today, he’s fifth in the NFL with 316 yards thus far. Note that Seattle’s offense is not 100% right now, it will be without the services of Miller who underwent ankle surgery last week. And that means we can expect the visitors to also establish the run game today, Marshawn Lynch has 234 yards so far in 2014. Note that Seattle has seen the total go UNDER the number in two of its last three following a bye week, while Washington has seen it dip blelow the posted number in eight of its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU losses; the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the UNDER as the sharp wager in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on the New York Jets.

I jumped on this line when it first hit the board and was able to get 7.5. Most everyone would be able to at least get 7 though. Regardless, I beileve the hungry Jets will keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the backdoor once the final whistle sounds. San Diego is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS so far and I think will come in a little complacent here. If QB Philip Rivers is going to lead his team to a fourth-straight victory, he’ll have to do it by sending the Jets to their longest losing streak in seven years. Note that New York is 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS thus far. The Jets lone victory came in Week 1, a 19-14 effort over the Raiders. Obviously New York is going to be the “hungrier” team in this matchup, its season is on the line today, another loss and the Jets will be starting to plan for next year already. The Jets defense has actually been a bright spot and has kept the team in games so far, the unit will have its hands full today with Philip Rivers who owns a league-best 114.5 QB rating; Rivers is coming off his best start of the year in a 33-14 victory over Jacksonville last Sunday. Note though, Rivers got the job done against one of the worst units in the league and covered up for an anemic run game which will once again be without the services of Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead; I simply can’t see the home side getting away with that this week vs. this capable Jets front line and secondary which allow a league-low 63.3 rushing yards per game and which rank third in total defense at 291.2. This is also a “do or die” game for New York QB Geno Smith as the fan base has grown restless and would welcome the shift to backup Michael Vick; Smith was 17 of 33 for 209 yards and one TD and one INT in last week’s 24-17 loss to Detroit. Coach Rex Ryan is sticking with his man: "Because I believe in him," Ryan said of his beleagured pivot. "I believe that we're going to get it done and I believe that he's going to be one of the main reasons we get it done and get it turned. I don't anticipate us as a team continuing to struggle. I think this team needs a win in the worst way, and I think that will help us more than anything. We have guys that believe in each other and I think, to a man, that our team believes in Geno." The schedule ahead is an absolute beast as well for the visitors, with games vs. Denver and New England on the horizon, a step in the “right” direction starting this week is a necessity. Is a date on the road against lowly Oakland a reason to “look ahead” this week for San Diego? Probably not, but with a couple of cream puffs back to back, I can’t see how it won’t be a bit complacent today, in my opinion the savvy move is in grabbing as many points as you can in this one; play on the JETS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Denver Broncos.

Arizona is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, including having won the last two in a row (both SU and ATS). Denver is 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS. The Broncos have had a week off after falling short in a 26-20 OT setback in Seattle two weeks ago. When taking everything into consideration, in my opinion, one of these clubs is over achieving and one is under performing. Suffice it to say, when the smoke finally clears at the end of this one, I look for the home side to have pulled away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Note that Arizona is also coming off its bye week. Arizona has been getting the job done with a stout defense which has held the opposition to an average of just 15 PPG, but I think it will finally be exposed today vs. a confident, rested and hungry Peyton Manning. In fact, it’s hard to believe that the Cards are on the verge of a 4-0 start to the season as they’ve been playing with backup QB Drew Stanton who has completed only 51.6 percent of his passes. Denver doesn’t run the ball much, which is good as that’s a strength of the Cardinals. The home side finally gets a boost on the defensive side of the ball with the expected return of Danny Trevathan; Trevathan was the team’s leading tackler last season and has missed the first three games with injury. Manning has dominated at Mile High, he’s thrown 55 TD’s to just eight INT’s in 18 regular-season home games while going 16-2 in the procees. The thin air has been the Cardinals nemesis, they are 0-4 in Denver while getting outscored 106-32. Rejoice Bronco’s fans, this is the break out game you’ve been waiting for this year, look for the home side to lay the hammer down; play on DENVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the UNDER between Chicago and Carolina.

For a number of different reasons I expect this total to stay below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. What is the first thing you think of when you think about these two clubs? For me it’s “great defensive play.” True, the Bears defensive unit is not what it used to be, but the organization is not that far removed from being one of the most adept on that side of the ball; and certainly Carolina has established itself as one of the top defensive clubs in the NFL over the last couple of years. That’s why it may come as a surprise to learn that Chicago has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its four games so far this season, including three in a row, while Carolina has seen it eclipse the number in its last two. Note that the Panthers have also lost their last two games, both SU and ATS, most recently an embarrassing 38-10 setback in Baltimore last week; in the two games that Carolina has won (both SU and ATS), it’s held its opposition to a combined 21 points. Clearly if the Panthers are going to win this season, it’s going to be on the back of their defensive unit. If Chicago wins this contest, it will have won its first three games away from home for the first time in eight seasons, but of course handing Carolina its third straight loss is easier said than done. Chicago’s defense will once again have to carry the load here, QB Jay Cutler has been as inconsistent as ever this year, trading good games with bad. Cutler will also be leaning on a run game which suddenly found its footing in posting 235 yards last week, Matt Forte had 166 of them. Stopping the run is normally a strength of Carolina, but after the first four weeks it ranks a disappointing 27th in the league in that department: “Stopping the run is simple," Carolina linebacker Luke Kuechly assessed earlier in the week. "If you're not in your gaps, they are going to rush you. If you're in your gaps, they can't run the ball. It's cliche, and as easy as it sounds, that's what it comes down to." Note that the Bears will welcome back end Jared Allen, who was out last week with a bout of pneumonia; Chicago clearly struggled to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers last week after it had recored seven total sacks in its previous two games. And that is going to spell trouble for Carolina QB Cam Newton, who has just three TD’s through the air so far, while also being sacked nine times (note that Newton has also always had his hands full with the Bears whenever he’s faced them as well, he has a single TD to go along with three INT’s in two matchups, both which were losses). Note that Carolina has seen the total go UNDER the posted number in 12 of its last 19 as a favorite and in 12 of its last 19 in front of the home town crowd, while Chicago has seen it dip below the number in six of its last ten following a divisional contest. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the UNDER as the sharp wager in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the OVER between Buffalo and Detroit.

For a number of different reasons I believe these teams will combine to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch and will recommend a play on the OVER. So far Buffalo has seen the total go UNDER the number in all four of its games, while Detroit has seen it dip below the number in three of four, including three straight. While they haven’t played against each other since 2010, it’s still significant to note that the total has gone UNDER the number in five of these teams last five in the series. All of these completely lop-sided UNDER trends collide on Sunday afternoon and suffice it to say, I’m looking for a big time “correction” to occur here. As with most of my totals, this is a situationally trend based pick and it doesn’t matter who is on the field of play today. So that means, if Detroit star WR Calvin Johnson doesn’t play, I still love this selection; I am basing this pick on entirely different criteria than who is playing and who isn’t. For the record, I don’t do this with all of my picks, I use a wide variety of methodoligies and systems and believe that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to succeed in this industry. Detroit sits alone atop the division after its 24-17 victory over the Jets last week: "If anybody should know better than to get caught looking ahead, it's us," Lions’ RB Reggie Bush warned earlier in the week. "Last year is a perfect example of that." The Lions have been pretty stingy on the defensive side of the ball, but despite that and also the fact that the Bills will be starting a new QB today, I believe the conditions are right for a higher-scoring shootout. Buffalo turns to veteran Kyle Orton who takes over the controls for the 2-2 Bills. Orton will be tasked in helping an offense which currently ranks 27th overall, averaging 320.8 YPG; Orton though has plenty of talent surrounding him, RB’s CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson are an imposing duo to stop, while WR Sammy Watkins has big play potential as well. I think Orton and company come in focused and put some points on the board today, all signs point to the OVER as the sharp wager in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ATS BEATDOWN on the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Patriots offense is stagnant and I expect this team to falter on the road in this hostile environment; while the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can with the home side. The Pats defense has been uncharacteristically carrying the load so far this year, but it will now have to deal with the Chiefs starting RB Jamaal Charles. What’s up with Tom Brady and company? The Pats offense has failed to go over 300 yards in two of three games. Not surprisingly then, Brady ranks 30th in the league with a 5.54 yards per attempt and his poor 82.9 passer rating is 23rd. And get this…Brady is just 1 of 13 attempts of 21 yards or longer downfield thus far. How can the Pats be 3 to 3.5 point favorites in this spot?! It can’t be blamed entirely on the veteran though, his supporting cast is pretty weak, top receiver Julian Edelman leads the team in receptions, TE Rob Gronkowski has been a shell of his former self; also note that Brady’s patchwork offensive line has been a seive thus far in giving up seven sacks. The run game has also failed Brady, it’s averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, which ranks near the bottom of the NFL. As mentioned off the top, New England’s offense has definitely picked up the slack, but I think will have its hands full here with a suddently confident and under the radar Chiefs team. QB Alex Smith was 19 for 25 for 186 yards and three TD’s in a 34-15 win at Miami last week. Charles didn’t even play, Knile Davis would go for 132 yards on a career high 32 carries. This game means a lot more to Kansas City as it has to play at San Francisco and then San Diego after this home contest. Note that New England is 7-10 ATS in its last 17 on the road, while KC is already 2-0 ATS as an underdog this year. The situation, the trends and the numbers all point to KANSAS CITY as the sharp wager in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Blake Bortles era has arrived in Jacksonville, I think the rookie can do enough to keep this one competitive and look for his team to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. While it won’t be an easy task, I think this does set up as a letdown/look ahead spot for the home side; after a tough 18-17 loss in Arizona to open the season, San Diego would beat Seattle 30-21 in Week 2 and then would hold on for another upset win in Buffalo last Sunday in a 22-10 victory. Dating back to last season the Chargers have now covered five straight. Jacksonville on the other hand has lost six straight, both SU and ATS since last year. Bortles was inserted into last week’s 44-17 loss at Indianapolis at halftime when his team trailed 30-0 and would finish 14 of 24 for 223 yards and two TD’s, as well as 30 yards on two carries. Let’s face it, Jacksonville is a poor team, it had scored one TD in its last 10 quarters before Bortles was forced into action: “It was definitely good to get some game action before you go into the week of practice," Bortles said afterwards. "So I mean kind of taking it one day at a time, try to learn from everything, every experience, situation you get put in and move on." Not surprisingly, this sets up as a revenge game for the visitors who would fall 24-6 at home to San Diego last year. I played the Chargers last week, so far veteran QB Philip Rivers has been pretty good this year, he has five TD’s, no INT’s and a 74.2 completion percentage over his last two games. The visitors catch a break though in facing a depleted Chargers backfield; already without the services of starting RB Ryan Mathews, San Diego lost Danny Woodhead for the year after he suffered a broken leg in the win over Buffalo. That means that Donald Brown, who had 31 carries for just 62 yards last week, and undrafted rookie Branden Oliver will shoulder the load. Also note that Bortles and the offense also catch a break in not having to face LB Manti Te’o, who leads the team in tackles but who fractured his foot last Sunday. Note that Jacksonville is 3-2 ATS in its last five after a loss vs. a division rival and 6-4 ATS in its last ten as an underdog of 10 points or more. And note that San Diego is 6-7 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite, 0-1 ATS the last two years as a favorite of 10 points or more, just 8-9 ATS its last 17 in front of the home town crowd and a sub-par 6-8 ATS its last 14 vs. teams with losing records. I feel that the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to JACKSONVILLE as the sharp wager in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* AFC SOUTH ART OF WAR on the Tennessee Titans.

Indianapolis started the year 0-2, but QB Andrew Luck put together arguably the best outing of his career in a 44-17 win over Jacksonville last week, he matched a career-high with four TD’s to go along with 370 yards to help his team avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole. Luck has been helped with a strong run game, the Colts have totaled 313 yards on the ground thus far. Conversely, Tennessee looked shell shocked in last week’s 33-7 loss in Cincinnati on Sunday, but note that the club had heard about former kicker Rob Bironas’ death just a few hours before hand. That said, after a nice 26-10 win over Kansas City to open the year, the Titans have been outscored 59-17 in back-to-back defeats. Last week though it was clear that the team was collectively thinking about other things, it committed 11 penalties for 99 yards (note that Tennessee has been flagged 28 times in total this year for 239 yards). QB Jake Locker will be a game time decision, he hurt his wrist last week: "It was encouraging that we got to see Jake to a little bit, but that's what we anticipated," coach Whisenhunt said mid week. "Hopefully, it will progress more, and we'll see what we can do tomorrow and that will determine a lot." If Locker can’t go, it’s next man up in Charlie Whitehurst or sixth round pick Zach Mettenberger. The Titans know they are in tough, but if history is any precedence, the defense has to be liking its chances for a bounceback performance here, Luck has topped 240 yards in just one of his four career starts against Tennessee and has four INT’s to two TD’s in those matchups. Note that the Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Indianapolis is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a win vs. a division rival. This is a pivotal division matchup, Tennessee’s season is basically on the line here, I think the visitors come to play and keep it close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover; play on the TITANS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the New York Jets.

From a situational stand point, this play is as solid as you could possibly ask for, for a number off different reasons/factors I feel that the home side offers tremendous value in this spot. Let’s start off with the Bears: Chicago lost a heart breaker at home to the Bills in its opener, only to rally in the second half last Sunday night to beat the 49ers 28-20 as a 7.5 point underdog (I had Chicago in that one). The Bears would avoid the dreaded 0-2 hole and have to be feeling pretty good about that obviously. It’s tough playing on the road in the NFL, and it’s tough playing back to back contests away from friendly confines, not to mention two Nationally televised games in a row; I simply feel that it’s asking too much for this team to once again gut out a victory in another hostile environment and it will be especially tough I think against what I feel is a vastly under-rated home side. The Jets come into this game at 1-1 as well, they’d hold on for a 19-14 win over Oakland in Week 1, before letting a lead slip away in a hard-fought 31-24 setback to the Packers last weekend. Taking a closer look at tonight’s starting QB’s, Jay Cutler of Chicago has a 61.6 completion percentage, 14 TDs and three INTs in a 6-1 run on Monday nights. Geno Smith of New York was great in his lone Monday Night start as well, passing for 199 yards and three TDs while also compiling a career best 147.7 passer rating in a 30-28 win over Atlanta on October 7th. There is a possibility that Smith will not have the services of WR Eric Decker who will be a game time decision. However, the injury bug is much worse on the other side of the field, the Bears were unsure if top receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery would even play last week (both did, both are still ailing this week). But defensively is where Chicago really got pummeled, it was already playing without center Roberto Garza and LG Matt Slauson before also losing CB Charles Tillman, safety Chris Conte and tackle Jeremiah Ratliff in last week’s win; if any play tonight, don’t expect to see much production. Another weak point for Chicago was the run game, Matt Forte finished with 21 yards on 12 attempts, which is bad news as New York is giving up a league-low 52.5 yards and 2.8 per attempt. When Cutler is forced to pass and unable to rely on a run game to keep defenses honest is when he’s at his worst, I’m predicting a long night for the oft-maligned pivot who has a reputation of looking brilliant one week and absurdly horrible the next. Chicago looked pretty good on defense last week and it will once again have its hands full with a Jets run unit which ranks first in the NFL in averaging 179 YPG; one player you’ll want to keep your eyes on is RB Chris Ivory who has rushed for 145 yards and two major scores on a 6.3 per attempt average (note that the Bears are giving up a poor 5.4 YPC). Note that Chicago is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog, while the Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven as a home favorite of 3 points or less. There are a plethora of factors working against the visitors, all signs point to NEW YORK as the sharp wager in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SLUG-FEST on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Carolina is 2-0, it would beat Tampa Bay 20-14 on the road, before then beatting Detroit 24-7 last week. After opening Week 1 with a win, the Steelers will be looking to rebound here after a listless 26-6 loss at Baltimore on Thursday; Ben Roethlisberger was 22 of 37 for 217 yards. The Steelers defense will will be looking to take advantage of a Panthers team which is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, which is down significantly from last season’s 4.2 mark. So why the drop off you ask? A big reason why is because DeAngelo Williams has been out due to a thigh injury, Jonathan Stewart carried the ball 15 times for just 37 yards last week; note that Williams is likely going to play today, but certainly he won’t be at 100%. It’s a daunting task for any team in facing the stout Panthers defense, but the Steelers will hammer and test that front seven, RB Le’Veon Bell has proved to be a bright spot for the team in averaging 5.3 yards per carry and his 304 yards from scrimmage ranks second in the NFL. From a statistical standpoint, it’s important to note that Pittsburgh is 6-5 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog, while Carolina is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven non-conference contests. There was a lot of hype surrounding the upgrades to the Steelers offense in the offseason and so far they haven’t performed, but I think this is the perfect stage. I’m expecting a battle down to the end, and as such, will grab as many points as I can get; play on PITTSBURGH.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks.

Here we go. It’s the Super Bowl rematch (Seattle would hammer Denver 43-8 at MetLife Stadium in the most lopsided Super Bowl in over 20 years last season). Both of these teams got caught looking ahead to this contest, Seattle is coming off a straight up loss, while the Broncos would allow the wounded Chiefs to hang around in an eventual 24-17 win. Of course Denver is out for some “revenge” today, but lets not also forget that in a way, the Broncos already did get their revenge when these teams met in the Preseason. Both teams are going to be amped, each feels that it has something to prove. Denver will still be looking for revenge and its defense will certainly be playing with a chip on its shoulder. Seattle wants to prove that it’s still the best and that last year’s result was no fluke. Both team’s will also be looking to bounce back after their sub-par efforts last week: "I'm sure this is a really important game to them again. As it is to us," Seattle coach Pete Carroll confirmed earlier in the week. "I think there was something going on in the preseason. I think it was a big deal for them. I don't blame them one bit." The Seahawks vaunted secondary can’t be happy after Philip Rivers threw for a 124.2 passer rating in last week’s loss in San Diego, the highest against Seattle since 2010. While it’s 2-0, Denver has looked shaky at times this year, it would have to hold on vs. Kansas City last week and it would also barely survive a similar scare in Week 1 vs. Indianapolis, escaping with a 31-24 victory. I think it’s extremely significant to note that Denver is averaging just 343 yards of total offense this year compared to the 457.3 it put up last season. And that is significant, as Seattle is 18-1 at home with QB Russell Wilson as a stater and the Seahawks have held teams to an average of 13.3 points during those games, giving up more than 20 just twice. I think these two offenses come in amped up and that adrenaline works against them, look for the defenses to take center stage early and for this total to sneak UNDER the number once the final whistle sounds.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH on the Oakland Raiders.

It’s do or die for the Raiders, an 0-3 start and they’ll be looking ahead to next season. And unfortunately for them, that’s going to be reality, while I don’t foresee the visitors being able to take this game outright, I do think they’ll make it a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and look for them to sneak in through the back door with the large spread they’ve been afforded on Sunday. After losing their opener to Miami, the Patriots would bounce back with a 30-7 win over the Vikings last Sunday. There are things to be concerned about though if you’re a New England fan, the offense is stagnant, Tom Brady and company would finish with a total of 292 yards, the team was fortunate to get a blocked FG for a TD as well as four INT’s to avoid the 0-2 start to the season. Brady finished with a sub-par 149 yards and ranks 28th in the league in QB rating at 78.8, the lowest of his career. New England is in fact 25th or lower in a number of offensive categories, including yards per game. The Patriots have also been uncharacteristically sloppy, they have 24 infractions accepted against them for a league-high 263 yards so far. I’m not going to sit here and try to convince you that Oakland is a great team that just hasn’t lived up to expectations yet, that’s definitely not the case. But I do think that it’s better than what it’s shown so far. Certainly the Raiders will look to tighten up with their run defense, they gave up 188 yards to Houston last week and will be leaning heavily upon former Pro Bowlers LaMarr Woodley, Justin Tuck and Antonio Smith. The offense looked inept in its first game as rookie Derek Carr had just 158 yards in the Raiders opening loss to the Jets, but looked much better against Houston’s tough defensive unit, finishing with 364 last week. It’s significant to note that Oakland is a perfect 2-0 ATS the last two years as a road underdog of 10 points or more, while New England is 1-5 ATS in the same time frame as a favorite of 10 points or more. Simply too many points to be giving up to this desperate team in my opinion, play on OAKLAND.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Washington Redskins.

The Washington Redskins (1-1) got back on track last week with the insertion of Kirk Cousins and I think they do enough to at least cover the spread in Philadelphia.  The Redskins may have lost Robert Griffin in the 41-10 win over Jacksonville in Week 2 but the offense looked even better with backup Kirk Cousins under center. Cousins completed his first 12 passes and finished 22 of 33 for 250 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the woeful Jaguars. Alfred Morris ran for 85 yards, including two scores while Niles Paul had 99 yards to lead the team in receiving. Washington struggled in Week 1 vs. Houston’s dominant defensive play, but had no problems with the inept Jaguars in piling up 485 yards of total offense. The Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) are riding high after a come from behind 30-27 win on Monday night football over Indianapolis. Darren Sproles had seven receptions for 152 yards to go along with a touchdown run. The Eagles became the fourth team in 30 years to win consecutive games in which it trailed in the second half by 14 or more points. There is a lot of hype surrounding the Eagles right now, but I think this is a few too many points for them to lay in this situation; this definitely sets up as a classic letdown spot in my opinion. I am not the only one who thinks RG3’s injury is a blessing in disguise for Washington as Cousins is a far better fit for head coach Jay Gruden’s offense: "He's handled being a backup like a pro,” Gruden remarked of Cousins earlier in the week. "He's waited patiently, and now his time is going to come to really take this thing and run with it." The Redskins come into this contest with double revenge on their minds as well after losing both tilts to their division rivals last year (both SU and ATS). Keep in mind the Eagles are just 4-13 ATS in home games the last two seasons and only 1-3 ATS as home favorites of more than 3.5 points in the same span. Philadelphia will also be working on a short work week after the Monday Night game on the road. I think Washington has a lot to prove here and will play more desperately than a 2-0 Eagles team that has gotten away with some sloppy defensive play over the first two weeks. All signs point to a comfortable cover for WASHINGTON.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Chicago Bears.

Chicago comes into this game down a few pieces, but I think in the end can keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door once the final whistle sounds. Chicago suffered a bad beat at home in a 23-20 OT loss to the Bills last week and will be desperate to avoid an 0-2 start to the season; also note that there will be added incentive for a big effort here today as Chicago begins a stretch with six of its next eight away from friendly confines: “It's hard to win on the road in this league, so you want to start off the season with a win at home," said Bears’ RB Matt Forte afterwards. "It's just as simple as taking care of the ball a little better, and in the red zone scoring more points when we get down there." As mentioned off the top, Chicago may have to deal with the absence of receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. However, both are listed as game time decisions, each got in some minor work in Friday’s practice. Regardless, the Bears are still dangerous on the offensive side of the ball with the likes of receiver Santonio Holmes, TE Martellus Bennett and the ever dangerous Forte. And note, San Francisco comes into this contest with injuries on the defensive side of the ball as CB’s Tramaine Brock and Chris Culliver are out indefinitely after ailments suffered in last week’s win. Cutler though will clearly need to be careful with the ball, all he has to do is look at Tony Romo’s three INT’s last week; Culter though looked pretty solid in last Sunday’s loss, while he had two INT’s, he’d finish with 349 yards and two TD’s. Defensively the Bears know they have to be better: "You know San Fran is going to come out and run some of that zone-read," Chicago DE Willie Young said earlier in the week. "I wouldn't be surprised if we get that for the rest of the year. That's not just singling us out. It's across the league. Everybody's buying stock in that particular play so we're just going to have to be sound for stopping that zone read." From a situational stand point, could this be a “look ahead” spot for San Francisco? Perhaps, it’s definitely worth noting that the 49ers hit the road for their first divisional contest of the year in Arizona against a 1-0 Cardinals team which is favored in New York today. I won’t call for the outright upset, but do think that all of the strong situational and motivational factors I listed above are definitely working in favor of the visitors today, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can; play on CHICAGO.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Houston Texans and the Oakland Raiders.

As with most of my Over/Under plays (in all sports), I feel this is a great situational move, Houston looks to build off a successful opening victory while the Raiders will be pushing the pace in this one to avoid the dreaded 0-2 hole; when all is said and done, I look for this total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. The Texans beat the Redskins 17-6 last week: "It's a long season, but it was a good win," said new Houston head coach Bill O'Brien. "We'll enjoy it but it's (over) quickly that we'll move on to next week." Oakland definitely catches a break here though as defensive specialist Jadeveon Clowney was injured in the win over the Redskins and will be out for 4 to 6 weeks. However, there’s no doubt that Oakland needs to be careful, the Texans looked great defensively last week, JJ Watt blocked an extra point attempt, he had a sack, a fumble recovery and a pair of tackles for a loss as well (note that Houston would recover two fumbles in the red zone). The offense can’t be overlooked either, Houston QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was decent in finishing 14 of 22 for 206 yards and a TD, while RB Arian Foster had 103 yards on 27 carries. The Raiders will be hungry after their 19-14 setback to the Jets in Week 1, QB Derek Carr was 20 of 32 for 151 yards and a pair of TD passes. Houston though will be looking to spoil Carr’s chances, while it did break its 14-game overall losing skid from last year, it still needs to snap its seven-game road slide, a date in Oakland is just what the doctor ordered as the Raiders dropped their final four home games last year by an average of 19.5 points. It’s interesting to note that Houston has seen the total go OVER the number in both games that it’s played over the last two season as a road favorite of 3 points or less, while Oakland has seen it sail above the number in six of its last 11 when the total in the contest is set between 35.5 and 42 points. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the OVER as the sharp wager in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ATS BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on the Washington Redskins.

It’s only Week 2, but this has to be considered an almost a do-or-die game for the Redskins. A loss to the lowly Jaguars and an 0-2 record would be devastating and as such, I think it will be all hands on deck in the Nation’s capital and look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. Jacksonville looked decent in jumping out to an early 17-0 lead in Philadelphia but would then characteristically fall apart and ultimately get crushed 34-17. Washington didn’t look much better, but drew a tough opening game on the road with an equally as determined Houston team which would win win 17-6 in front of the home town crowd. Jacksonville comes in with some injury issues as well as top WR’s Marquise Lee and Cecil Shorts III are limited or unable to go with hamstring problems. There were a lot of expectations for the Redskins last year, but QB Robert Griffin III would take a major step back and the team would finish 3-13 SU, including losing its final eight in a row. It wasn’t all doom and gloom for Griffin and Co. last week though, the unit would generate 372 total yards; note that Griffin himself went 29 of 37 overall. The run unit looked great too and will look to take advantage of the Jaguars suspect line; note that Alfred Morris and Roy Helu would finish with a respectable 137 yards on 18 carries. I think Griffin can bounce back here, Houston’s front 7 is dangerous, while the Jags showed some life in the first half last week, the unit looked inept in the second. Conversely, I think Jags’ QB Chad Henne will have his hands full today with Washignton’s dynamic pass-rushing duo in Ryan Kerrigan and Brian Orakpo. Ultimately, I think WASHINGTON can come up with enough big plays like the Eagles did last week and look for the home side to take care of business.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on the Detroit Lions.

I think the home side and new coach Jim Caldwell find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Giants would open 2013/14 by going an NFL-worst 0-6 out of the gates, but then would go 7-3 the rest of the way. It’s a little surprising to me that New York recovered the way it did, especially when you dig a little deeper and take a look at some of the numbers, the Giants finished 28th in the league in scoring and had an NFL-high 44 turnovers. New York would bring in former Green Bay assistant Ben McAdoo at offensive coordinator, his job is to instal the up-tempo West Coast offense, something that veteran QB Eli Manning had difficulties with in the preseason: Don't get me wrong, we're ready for Week 1," Manning explained over the weekend. "But I think as a season goes on, you're always looking to improve, whether you've been in a system for 10 years or whether you have young guys and need guys to step up or you have new players, there's always room for improvement." That certainly doesn’t sound like a person that is 100% confident with what is going on. Detroit’s major issue the last few years has been consistency; both sides of the football are loaded with talent, but something has gone wrong as the group has severely under-performed. That said, Caldwell adopts a team which ranked third in the NFL in passing yards last season; Caldwell has been brought in to properly harness the talents of oft-maligned pivot Matt Stafford: “You can tell he has worked at it even during the summer," Caldwell said of his QB. "In every facet, I can see improvement. Footwork, accuracy, timing, command of the offense, all of those things. So now we get a chance to see if he can put it all together." To me, that sounds like a real assessment, Caldwell isn’t just blowing smoke up the media’s butts for a good soundbite in my opinion. Stafford’s favorite target will once again be star receiver Calvin Johnson, but will also welcome ex Seattle receiver Golden Tate. While New York did make some upgrades along its atrocious offensive line, I think the unit will have its hands full with Detroit’s opportunistic line and secondary; and that’s bad news for the declining Manning who again led the league in turnovers last year (and note that the Giants run game put up the worst numbers for the franchise in almost 70 years). Unfortunately for Manning and his patchwork run unit, they’ll once again be behind a poor offensive line; note that veteran Chris Snee retired in July, while guard Geoff Schwartz went down with a dislocated toe. New York also got hit on the defensive side of the ball when MLB Jon Beason was injured in OTAs. That’s bad news for the visitors, Stafford is coming off his third straight season of more than 4,500 yards passing and can turn to an electric run game which is led by Reggie Bush who had 1,006 yards on the ground in 2013. While the Giants have taken the last three meetings between the teams (2007, 2010 and last year), I think the conditions are finally right for Stafford and look for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover; play on DETROIT.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos.

Peyton Manning came up short against his old team last year but I think the prolific pivot will get his revenge tonight and guide the home side to a convincing victory once the final whistle sounds. Since being let go by the Colts, Manning has dominated in Denver, he’s led his team to back-to-back 13 win seasons and last year he’d set an NFL record with 55 TD passes and 5,477 yards. For the most part the Broncos rolled through the 2013 regular season, but their first loss came on Manning’s first visit to Indianapolis as an opponent, a 39-33 setback on October 20th. Both teams comes in with having to deal with some off-field non-sense, Denver will have to overcome the absence of Wes Welker for four games due to violating the league’s drug policy, while the Colts issues’ lie with owner Jim Irsay and his suspension due to a DWI; we’ll call this area a “wash” then. Manning still has plenty of weapons to utilize, including Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas and TD Julius Thomas. The Colts are coming off back-to-back 11 win seasons under the guidance of Andrew Luck who is going to have his hands full I think in this nationally televised contest, the Broncos upgraded their defense significantly in the offseason by acquiring DB’s Aqib Talib and TJ Ward as well as lineman DeMarcus Ware. After the way the Broncos lost in the Super Bowl, do you think the home side has something to prove tonight? You’d better believe it:”"Season opener, it doesn't get much bigger than this except for the postseason," Manning said. "I've always said that opening day is a playoff-type atmosphere." I like Manning to outduel his counterpart tonight; play on DENVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER” on the OVER between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins.

Division rivals means that we can take a look back over the last few years to see if we can find any trends to exploit. This one certainly falls into that category as they’ve played to four-straight UNDERS over 2012/13 and 2013/14; suffice it to say, I think this trend finally gets broken as each team comes into the current campaign filled with optimism. The Patriots won both games in 2012, while the teams would split their contests last season, each prevailing on its home field. The Patriots won 27-17 in November, the Fish returned the favor with a 24-20 win in December. There is reason to believe that both teams are going to be able to put some points on the board this year, and situationally we know that each will be feeling the pressure in this opening contest. It’s hard to win on the road, and doubly so against a division opponent in the season opener, the Patriots will be looking to build off what can only be considered a very successful 2013 performance. New England came within a single game of advancing to the Superbowl despite playing without its primary receiving corp. With a healty unit and some significant upgrades on both sides of the ball, it’s hard not to imagine New England being better this year. This is a big game for Miami too obviously, a straight up win against the division heavy-weight would give it a significant leg-up right out of the gate. This could be the ideal spot for Miami to steal one as well as it will be extremely hot in South Florida at the time, the Dolphins will obviously be more accustomed to the adverse conditions. I think the table is finally set for a higher-scoring affair.

Prediction: New England 27, Miami 24

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This is a 10* “TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER” on the OVER between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons.

When you think about these two clubs, what’s the first thing that comes to mind? For me, it starts and ends with the two men under center. The Saints’ Drew Brees will once again be a Top 3 QB pick in every Football pool this year, and while he had a rare off-season in 2013, the Falcons’ go as Matt Ryan goes. So it may come as a surprise to learn that three of these teams last four in the series have gone UNDER the posted number. New Orleans won 23-17 at home in September and 17-13 in Atlanta in late November. For a number of different reasons, I feel that this strong trend gets “bucked” in their 2014/15 opener. After going 7-9 SU in 2012, an effort which saw it miss the postseason for the first time in four years, New Orleans would storm out of the gate in 2013 by winning its first five. Brees was the focal point as he will be once again this season; note that the prolific QB would pass for 5,162 yards and a 68 percent completion rate in 2013 (it was his third season in a row with at least 5,000 passing yards). An 11-5 SU record saw the Saints return to the playoffs where they edged past the Eagles 26-24, stumbling finally in the divisional playoffs to the eventual champion Seattle Seahawks. New Orleans comes into the season as the overwhelming favorite to win the NFC South and is +1,800 to win its second Super Bowl in the last six years. It goes without saying that there is going to be pressure on New Orleans to perform out of the gate. Expectations will be a little less in Atlanta though, which doesn’t mean it won’t be hungry to send an early message and to steal one from the division heavy-weight. Atlanta was plagued by injuries in 2013 and fell from going 13-3 in 2012 to a disappointing 4-12 last year. But with a combination of players returning from injury on both sides of the ball, by holes filled via free angency and a high draft pick in each round, Atlanta has every reason to believe that it can steal this game as well.

Prediction: New Orleans 31, Atlanta 24

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This is a 10* “TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER” on the OVER between the Cleveland Browns and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

A couple of division rivals with big expectations collide to open the 2014/15 campaign and while these two teams have played to some traditionally lower-scoring affairs, I think their first game sets up as a higher-scoring shootout. Three of these team’s last four in the series have gone UNDER the number including both last season. Pittsburgh won 27-11 in late November, the total staying below the posted total of 40.5 in that one; the Steelers then also won at home 20-7 in late December, the total staying well UNDER the posted number of 44.5 in that one. However, I feel that all signs point to their opener eclipsing this tiny number. The Browns won just four games in 2013 but come in with optimism with a new head coach, a new front office and with what they hope will be their franchise QB for another decade. However, winning in Pittsburgh against an equally determined Steelers team is not going to be easy. As a situational handicapper, these are exactly the types of contests I keep my eyes open for, we can expect the visitors to air out it out today as they try to steal one from the division heavy weight. Pittsburgh closed the 2013 season 8-4 and missed the playoffs only because of a tie-breaker. Despite his age, Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger is still the premier pivot in the division and after the way it started last year, we can absolutely expect the home side to step on the gas from start to finish. All signs finally point to a higher-scoring affair.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Cleveland 20

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