This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Arizona is 2-3-1. The Giants are 2-4. All that enthusiasm surrounding the move to Daniel Jone at QB in the Big Apple seems to have quieted. The Giants have lost two straight games, though those were against the Vikings and Patriots, two of the better teams in the league (one of them THE best). Speaking of new QBs, the Cardinals obviously continue to roll with rookie Kyler Murray. He guided his team to a wild 34-33 win over Atlanta last week where the Cards were lucky that Falcons kicker Matt Bryant missed the potential game-tying extra point. The last two games have been Murray and the offense's best showings yet. Not coincidentally, Arizona won both games. But they were also facing two terrible defenses. The Giants defense isn't exactly what we'd call great, but neither is an offense which has scored 24 points the last two games. Actually, one of their two touchdowns last week came from the defenses. That game with the Patriots was a terrible beat for anyone with the Under as there were three non-offensive scores in the game (two by New England). Take those away and you wouldn't come close to approaching the number this week. The Giants have averaged just over 210 yards/game the last two weeks. Under is 6-1 for Arizona if they allowed 30 or more points the previous week. Play UNDER Arizona-NY Giants

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This is a 10* play on GREEN BAY

Green Bay needed some serious help from the refs to get by Detroit on Monday Night Football. The Lions still covered, which is all we needed. But a closer inspection of the box score reveals it was Detroit that may actually have been a bit lucky to leave with the cash. Sure, the officiating got all the headlines. But the Packers were +148 in total yardage. They turned it over three times and still won. Winning a game where you're -3 in the turnover department is not an easy thing to do. Take away those miscuses and there's probably no discussion of the referees at all. On a short week, the Packers turn around and are set to host the Raiders. Oakland is off a bye. The last two games have both been upset victories for the Silver and Black, first over Indianapolis, then over Chicago in London. We can't see a third straight upset though. They've lost and failed to cover the only other two times in the last three years they've been off two straight wins. They're also still just 4-14 SU and 5-12-1 ATS the last 18 road games. Gruden has them improving, but the Raiders still aren't ready to go on the road and beat Aaron Rodgers. They haven't beaten the Packers since 1987! Green Bay is 2-0 ATS after its last two times playing on MNF, so no need to worry about the short week. Play on GREEN BAY

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This is an 8* play on the COLTS

The Colts are coming off a bye and not getting enough respect here against the Texans. Both teams are 4-2. Before the bye, Indianapolis went into Kansas City and beat the Chiefs, holding them to only 13 points. We think they are certainly capable of doing the same to Deshaun Watson and Houston. The Texans don’t always do the best job at protecting Watson, who has been sacked 18 times in six games. The Colts defense typically does a tremendous job at pressuring the quarterback. In the three meetings last year, one of them a playoff win, the Colts sacked Watson a total of 15 times. Making matters worse for Houston, they lost their right tackle to a MCL injury last week. When the Colts offense is on the field, look for QB Brissett to have a big day. He had 10 TD passes in the first four games, throwing for at least two. The Texans defense is suspect through the air, allowing the second most completions in the league. Receiver TY Hilton has typically had big games against the Texans in his career. The Colts have won 13 of their last 19 games overall. They are at home and the bye week is a big advantage here. Play on INDIANAPOLIS

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This is a 10* on DENVER

Through four weeks, the Chiefs were 4-0 and the Broncos 0-4. But the last two weeks have seen a sudden change with Kansas City losing twice and Denver winning both of its games. So it's not a shock to us to see the line "tighten" as we get closer to kickoff. We very much give the Broncos a shot of winning here despite the fact you'd have to go all the way back to 2015 to find the last time they beat the Chiefs. It's a seven-game losing streak to the Chiefs, but before that Denver had actually beaten this division rival seven straight times. Kansas City has definitely been better in recent years but Patrick Mahomes is not 100% presently (ankle) and the offense has put up its two lowest point totals EVER with him as the starter the last two games. Denver's defense is playing well right now, having held the Chargers and Titans to 13 points and 450 yards total. Obviously, neither of those teams have the offensive firepower Kansas City does. But the Broncos defense is top four in the league in yards allowed and top seven in points allowed. They may not be as stingy as they were against the last two opponents, but they have the potential to keep Kansas City under 25 points. As for the Chiefs defense, it's never really been good. Last year, Mahomes and the offense were so productive that the defense was largely an afterthought. But now the defense is a problem for Andy Reid as it has given up 180 or more yards rushing each of the last four games. The Chiefs would be on a three-game losing streak right now if it wasn't for a last minute TD against Detroit. There have been only two games this year where Denver DIDN'T have the lead going into the final minute. We'll take the points. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

Kansas City has scored its two lowest point totals EVER with Patrick Mahomes as the starting QB the last two games. They lost both and now must face a Denver defense that's playing with some confidence following two straight wins, the last one coming in shutout fashion. But the Chiefs offense, even with Mahomes hobbled, is still far more dangerous than what the Broncos have faced the last two weeks. It's certainly reasonable to expect Kansas City to score at least 24 points in this game. That's something they've done every time but once with Mahomes as the starter. That one time was two weeks ago against Indianapolis. By kickoff, this could very well end up as the lowest O/U for any Chiefs game so far this season. Denver's offense is going to have to pick up some of the slack as well, but that shouldn't be a problem going against a KC defense that is struggling right now. A year ago, the Chiefs allowed the second most yards in all of football. It hardly mattered with Mahomes and the offense putting up record numbers. But now the defense is a problem for Andy Reid as it has given up 180 or more yards rushing each of the last four games. The Chiefs have given up 26 or more points four times this year. The Over is 17-5 the Chiefs past 22 road games and 3-1-1 the last five times the Broncos have been off a win by at least two touchdowns. Play OVER Kansas City-Denver

AAA

This is a 10* play on DETROIT

Historically speaking, the Lions have not fared well in their rivalry with the Packers. But the recent trends all seem to favor them. They are 4-0 straight up and against the spread the last two years vs. Green Bay. Three of those wins came as underdogs. The Lions are off a bye this week and they've covered six of the last seven years after a bye. Monday Night Football seems like a nice place to return to action as Matt Stafford is 7-3 ATS all-time on MNF including 5-1 on the road. Detroit is the better offensive team here as they average more points and yards per play. Green Bay, even though 4-1, is being outgained both on a per play and per game basis. They've been outgained in three of the four wins and were only +2 in yards in the other. They gave up 563 yards last week to Dallas, a win that was largely tied to being +3 in turnovers. The last time Detroit played, they held Patrick Mahomes to zero touchdown passes. They didn't win that game (lost 34-30), but still covered, something they've done three straight times - all as underdogs. The line move is telling for this one. Aaron Rodgers won't have his favorite receiver, Davante Adams. Play on DETROIT

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

It's been confirmed that the Steelers are starting 3rd stringer Devlin Hodges Sunday night as backup Mason Rudolph is still unable to return from last week's concussion. Of course, Ben Roethlisberger's season is over after an injury suffered in the second game. That's the current state of the Steelers, who are 1-4 after suffering a tough 23-20 home loss to Baltimore in overtime. They did score with Hodges in the game as he went 7 of 9 for 63 yards. In College, Hodges won the Walter Payton Award in 2018 while at Samford, meaning he was the best player at the FCS level. Maybe he has a higher upside than Rudolph? We do think the Steelers will be able to score on a Chargers defense that's giving up 6.3 yards per play. Take away the ugly opener in New England and Pittsburgh has scored at least 20 points in every game. Los Angeles is off a bad home loss to Denver last week in which they scored only 13 points. But they turned it over twice inside the 5-yard line, so there easily could have more points for them. Philip Rivers and company, while short-handed, should bounce back tonight. RB Gordon is back after a lengthy holdout. The Under is 4-0 the Chargers last four games, but the Over is 4-1 in the last five matchups with the Steelers. The key angle here is that this is the lowest total of the season for either team. Game goes Over. Play OVER Pittsburgh-LA Chargers

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This is an 8* play on DALLAS

Dallas started 3-0, but is now 3-2 after suffering losses to New Orleans and Green Bay. So the Jets will be a welcome sight this Sunday. Sam Darnold is making his return here for the Jets, but they are more than just a quarterback away from competing with this Cowboys team. Dallas has the #1 ranked offense in the league. The Jets are 32nd. Dallas is 2nd on defense in number of third down conversions allowed. The Jets offense is the worst at converting third downs. The Cowboys feasted on losing teams in the 3-0 start, beating the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins. QB Prescott is 13-5-2 ATS against losing teams. He's also 7-2-1 ATS as a starter when favored by more than six points. Prescott had a career-high 463 yards passing last week. The Jets have gained only 233  yards total the last two games. Play on DALLAS

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Atlanta is favored in this one, but it sure doesn't feel like they should be. That's cause they've lost three in a row and four of five to open the season. Arizona is now 1-3-1 after picking up its first win last week at the expense of winless Cincinnati. The Falcons completely fell apart late in the game vs. Houston last week and ended up giving up 53 points. It was a one-possession game going into the final two minutes but they ended up losing by 21. We expect a better defensive effort this week. At the same time, they hadn't scored more than 24 in a game themselves before last week. The Cardinals had been held to 20 points or less in the three games prior to last week's win. Two of their top offensive players - RB Johnson and WR Kirk - may not play Sunday. The Under is 22-9 the Cardinals last 31 home games. The Cardinals have been settling for far too many field goals this year. 14 of 22 scoring drives have ended with a FG rather than a touchdown. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan turns it over too often in the red zone. Play UNDER Atlanta-Arizona

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This is a 10* play on CINCINNATI

We don't expect the Ravens to lose here. But double-digit favorite isn't their best role. They are just 3 for their last 13 ATS in it. Also, John Harbaugh hasn't been good when laying points to the Bengals. Not only is he 4-11-1 including 1-6 L7 at the window, but he's gone just 7-9 straight up in those games, also losing six of the last eight outright. The Bengals are 0-5, but they've been a tougher out than you might think. Three of the losses have been in games decided by seven points or less. In all three, Cincy had a fourth quarter lead and two of them they were up at the two-minute warning. Two of the three close games were on the road where they're now on a 6-2 ATS run despite losing all eight games straight up. Baltimore may have success running the ball in this game, but that just means it'll be a "shorter" game with less big plays. Plus the Ravens defense has not been good recently, giving up 96 points the last three weeks. They are allowing 6.9 yards per play, which is worse than the Bengals much maligned defense. The last six meetings here in Baltimore have all been games decided by seven points or less. The Ravens have beaten Miami, Arizona and a Pittsburgh team that was down to its third-string QB. Two of those wins were by six points or less. Grab the points in this AFC North battle.  Play on CINCINNATI

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This is an 8* on MIAMI

Here it is. Perhaps the worst regular season matchup we've seen in some time. It's the 0-5 Redskins taking on the 0-4 Dolphins. The only reason Miami didn't lose last week is because it was off. They have been the league's worst team so far, getting outscored 163-26. Washington has the dubious honor of being the league's next worst team. They've scored just 10 points the last two games. They've given up at least 31 in four of the five games. Just to show how unique this matchup is, it's only the second time in the Super Bowl era that a team at 0-5 or worse has been listed as a road favorite. The first was the Redskins in 1998 and they lost the game outright. While Miami is off a bye, Washington just fired its coach (Jay Gruden). While there's no denying how dubious the Dolphins have been, a team as bad as the Redskins should never be a road favorite. They (the Redskins) haven't been favored in any game since Week 9 of last year. This will be the 12 time in the Super Bowl era that two winless teams are meeting after Week 5. The home team is 8-3 ATS the previous 11 matchups. 0-4 or worse teams coming off a bye are 26-10 ATS all-time. Bill Callahan is the interim Redskins coach and he ended up being a disaster in Oakland. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on NEW ENGLAND

Stop us when you've heard this one before. The Patriots are once again the class of the NFL. As one of the league's two undefeateds, they've outscored their five opponents by 121 points. Some of the competition can certainly be called into question. After all, they've faced the league's three worst teams - Dolphins, Jets, Redskins - who are a combined 0-13. But they've still only allowed two offensive touchdowns all season. One was a 65-yard run last week. Just to show how much they're in front of the rest of the league, this will already be the fourth time this year that they're being favored by at least two touchdowns. Thursday night's opponent is the Giants, who already had some of the wind taken out of their sails with last week's poor effort vs. Minnesota. After rookie QB Daniel Jones guided them to a couple victories, the Vikings game went a lot differently as the offense barely gained 200 yards in a 28-10 loss. New York easily could be 1-4 right now with the only convincing win coming against the winless Redskins. Rookie QB's traditionally do not fare well against Bill Belichick, so we'll call for Jones to struggle again this week. The Giants defense has already allowed 490 or more yards in three games and is giving up 6.8 yards per play. So good luck stopping Tom Brady. Lay the big number as New England is 40-17-2 ATS its last 59 home games. Play on NEW ENGLAND

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This is a 10* play on SAN FRANCISCO

While the Browns grabbed all the offseason headlines, it's been the 49ers starting 3-0 that has been the league's biggest surprise so far. Tonight, they host the 2-2 Browns, who are making their second appearance on MNF in three weeks. The first couldn't have gone much better as they routed the hapless Jets 23-3. But last week's 40-25 win in Baltimore was probably the most impressive we've seen Cleveland look all season. But we still have question marks about this team - on both sides of the ball. Over half of Nick Chubb's 166 yards rushing against the Ravens came on one play (88 yard touchdown run). The 49ers have a top five run defense, so look for Chubb to struggle to duplicate last week's success. QB Mayfield is often guilty of holding onto the ball for too long, leading to poor decisions or the offensive line breaking down. Again, look for the 49ers defensive front to be the biggest factor in this game. San Francisco is off a bye and West Coast teams typically have the edge over Eastern Time Zone opponents in these primetime games. So the situation definitely favors the home team. The 49ers offense, save for five turnovers against the Steelers, has been outstanding the last two games as they've rolled up over 1,000 yards! They've averaged over 6.5 yards per play during that time. That they still beat Pittsburgh, even though they were -3 in turnovers, is actually quite impressive. The defense held the Steelers to only 239 total yards. The Niners are a better team than the Browns and those "expecting" them to lose a game are going to be sorely disappointed. Play on SAN FRANCISCO

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This is an 8* play on the Over

We know the Chiefs are going to score as they've put up at least 26 points in all games started by Patrick Mahomes. They've gone over 30 in three of four this year. The one exception was a 28-10 win over Oakland where they scored all 28 points in a single quarter. The Colts defense just gave up 31 points in a loss to the Raiders last week, so this hardly seems like an ideal matchup for them. But of course, the Chiefs defense isn't very good either. They've given up 26 points or more to every opponent but the Raiders. Indianapolis should be good for at least 24 points by the end of this game as that's the threshold they've hit in three of four games, a matchup with Tennessee (top five scoring defense) the lone exception. The Over is 6-0 when the Chiefs gained at least 350 total yards in their last game. They gained 438 in last week's wild 34-30 win over the Lions. That game could have featured even more scoring were in not for turnovers by both teams. The Chiefs defense actually ended up giving up more than 450 yards. Three of the Chiefs games this year have seen at least 61 total points scored. This number is high, but the issue is oddsmakers just don't seem willing to open the number higher. Until they do, KC strictly remains an Over team. Play OVER Indianapolis-Kansas City

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*Bonus Pick Chiefs 1st Half

THis is an 8* play on ARIZONA

A battle of winless teams has "upset" written all over it, if you can even call it that. The 0-3-1 Cardinals are underdogs to the 0-4 Bengals, but it's the dog that's played better in our opinion. Cincinnati looked absolutely dreadful Monday night in a 27-3 loss to Pittsburgh. This team just doesn't have much. It was just 175 total yards gained against a bad Steelers defense. Two times in the first three weeks, the Bengals were game on the road. They came up one point short in Seattle and only four points short in Buffalo. But really the only "good" game was the Seattle one. They were shutout in the first half by the Bills before a second half rally proved futile. Cincy has gotten crushed by the 49ers 41-17, their only home game so far. Arizona was competitive the first two games, tying Detroit and losing by only six to Baltimore. But losing back to back home games by double digits was certainly disappointing. Still, we rate Arizona as the better team here. With them taking the points, it's an automatic play for us. Both teams have offensive line issues, but the Bengals are worse. Kyler Murray will make more plays than Andy Dalton. Cincy is not only 1-6 ATS off a division loss, they are 1-6 straight up. Play on ARIZONA

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This is a 10* play on the TITANS

The 2-2 Titans host the 3-1 Bills and the big story heading into this game is who will play quarterback for the road team. Josh Allen was knocked out of last week's 16-10 loss to the Patriots. For much of the week, there was speculation that Matt Barkley would have to start for Buffalo. But Allen has reportedly cleared concussion protocol and will be under center. We're still taking Tennessee. After back to back losses, the Titans looked good last week in a 24-10 upset of Atlanta. You wouldn't know it was an upset simply by watching as they controlled that game from start to finish. After playing three of their first four games on the road, it'll be nice playing at home this week. The Titans were 12-4 SU at home the last two years, but did lose here to the Colts in Week 2. But they were ahead in that game in the 4th quarter. Buffalo left a lot on the line last week in an unsuccessful bid to upset the Patriots at home. The Bills did win their first two road games, but those were against the Jets and Giants. Tennessee is better and should shut down the Bills offense. Turnovers could be a determining factor. Marcus Mariota is the only QB in the league to start every game and not have a turnover. Allen has six interceptions and two fumbles. Play on TENNESSEE

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

The Patriots could go Over this total themselves. Mark it down. One of the NFL's two 4-0 teams, New England heads to D.C. this weekend to take on the Redskins, who are one of the league's four 0-4 teams. Obviously, this is a gross mismatch. But the pointspread reflects that. What the O/U line doesn't reflect, however, it just how bad the Washington defense is. They gave up over 30 points the last three games, one of them against Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears (who were struggling to move the ball previous to that game) and then 24 more to the Giants last week. It easily could have been more than 24 points allowed last week, but the Giants turned it over four times. You can bet Tom Brady won't be that careless with the ball this week. The Patriots offense will also be eager to atone for last week's subpar effort, which came against a very good Bills defense. They go from facing one of the league's best defenses to one of its worst. Colt McCoy (yikes!) and the Washington offense probably won't do much here, but a single TD or maybe 10 points might be all we need here for an Over. Play OVER New England-Washington

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This is a 10* on LOS ANGELES

One bad loss to the Buccaneers and everyone seems to have 'jumped ship' when it comes to last year's Super Bowl runner-up. But the Rams still put up over 500 total yards of offense last week and were unbeaten entering the game. They had 36 first downs. Jared Goff hasn't looked great, but he'll be facing a Seattle defense that's largely gone untested in the first quarter of the season, thanks to facing a slew of subpar quarterbacks. The look ahead line for this game had the Rams favored, so there's definitely been a swing in perception. We will look to take advantage of that. The Seahawks are 0-2 ATS at home so far as they barely beat the Bengals and lost to the Brees-less Saints. Besides beating the winless Bengals, their other wins have been against the Steelers and Cardinals. Those three teams are a combined 1-10-1 with the only win occurring because the Steelers played the Bengals Monday night. Remember Seattle was the fortunate opponent of Pittsburgh when Ben Roethlisberger got hurt. This will be the first time the Rams have been an underdog in a regular season game since 2017. They've won 16 of the last 19 road games. Play on LOS ANGELES 

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

Neither team playing Monday night has done much of the way in scoring in 2019 and neither has done any kind of winning. The Bengals and Steelers both come in at 0-3 with the former averaging only 18.0 points/game while the latter is at just 16.3. The Steelers have the obvious excuse of not having Ben Roethlisberger, but they still put up 20 last week in a loss to San Francisco with Mason Rudolph at quarterback. While the Roethlisberger injury definitely altered our outlook on the Steelers season, more concerning in the interim is how poorly the defense has played. They've given up 28.3 points/game so far and could have given up a lot more than 24 last week were it not for the 49ers turning the ball over so much. Three of San Francisco's five turnovers came inside the red zone. So it definitely could have - and should have - been a lot worse for Pittsburgh last week. They allowed 446 total yards to the Niners. On the year, the Steelers are allowing 443 yards/game. The Bengals defense knows what it's like to be shredded by the 49ers as well. They gave up 572 total yards to them in 41-17 loss back in Week 2. On the bright side, Andy Dalton is actually averaging over 300 yards passing per game. The Over is 5-2 the Steelers last seven games on Monday Night Football and 7-2-1 in the Bengals last 10 division games. While the offenses have been struggling, this one could easily turn into a shootout with two struggling defenses that can't stop anybody. Play OVER Cincinnati-Pittsburgh

AAA

This is an 8* play on OVER

The competition has not been fierce, but the Cowboys have looked good so far. They are 3-0 and averaging 32.3 points per game. Kellen Moore is doing a very good job as the new offensive coordinator, QB Dak Prescott is playing as well as anyone in the league right now and RB Ezekiel Elliot hasn't skipped a beat. New Orleans will be the Cowboys toughest opponent yet, but of course the Saints are without Drew Brees. These teams played a Thursday night game last season and the Cowboys won 13-10. Expect this tussle to feature a lot more scoring. It took touchdowns from both the defense and special teams to get New Orleans to 33 points last week as they pulled the upset in Seattle. But now they are playing in the Superdome. We expect Teddy Bridgewater to play well here. The Over is 8-3 in the Saints last 11 September games. It's also cashed in the last five conference games for Dallas. The Saints defense, which isn't as good as it was last year, did just give up over 500 yards to Seattle. The only offenses Dallas has faced are the Giants (with Eli Manning), the Redskins and the Dolphins. So it wouldn't be fair to call them "good" just yet. The Saints always put up points at home. This time Dallas should be able to match them. Play OVER Dallas-New Orleans

AAA

This is an 8* play on SEATTLE

The Seahawks starting 2-0 was a little surprising, but probably less so compared to last week's home loss. Seattle had to like its chances going into last week as they were facing a Saints team without Drew Brees. Unfortunately, the joke was on them as they lost 33-27 despite almost a 2 to 1 edge in total yards (515 to 265). The problem was allowing the Saints to score two non-offensive touchdowns, one on a punt return and the other a fumble return. We like the Seahawks to bounce back from that defeat as they play Arizona this week. The Cardinals haven't won, but they did tie, with the primary problem being they always fall behind in games. Last week they lost 38-20 at home to a Carolina team that didn't have Cam Newton. Kyler Murray is running for his life as he's been sacked more times (16) than all but one other quarterback. He hasn't faced a ton of blitzes but is dropping back to pass at a very high rate with 137 attempts in three games. On defense, Arizona is missing both of its starting corners. Tough to really like anything about the Cardinals right now. Seattle is 5-0-1 in its past six trips to the desert. They should win this one handily after putting up so many yards last week. Play on SEATTLE

AAA

This is an 8* play on the UNDER

We like the Seattle-Arizona game to go Under too. Sure, we talked a good bit about the Seahawks putting up a lot of yards last week and the Cardinals defense being down both of its starting corners. But Seattle can't score enough to send this one over by itself. Their defense played better against the Saints than the final score indicated. We went through this in the analysis on the side. But New Orleans scored two non-offensive touchdowns. Arizona did give up 4 TD passes to Kyle Allen last week, but should play better this week. The offense hasn't scored more than 24 in regulation this year and their total points would look a lot worse if not for the 4th quarter comeback they had vs. the Lions. The Under is 21-9 in Arizona's last 30 home games. It is also 11-5 the last 16 times Seattle gave up 30 or more points in its last game. Play UNDER Seattle-Arizona

AAA

This is a 10* on NEW YORK

With the New York media tripping all over itself in an effort to fawn over rookie Daniel Jones, one might think this could be an ideal spot to fade the public sentiment and go against the Giants. Especially now, since RB Saquon Barkley is going to miss several games. With Barkley relegated to a spectator on the bench, Jones (in his 1st career start) led the Giants to an improbable come from behind 32-31 victory over the Buccaneers last week. But if there's a team (besides Miami) that the Giants deserve to be favored over in this spot, it's Washington. The Redskins are on a short week after a diastrous effort Monday night left them at 0-3. At home, they trailed the Bears 28-3 at the half and eventually lost 31-15. Washington is a complete mess right now. QB Keenum sprained his foot in the loss Monday night. He's expected to play, but backup Colt McCoy is hurt too. That could leave the Redskins own rookie, Dwayne Haskins, as the only option. But according to most, he's not ready to be a NFL starter yet. The same could be said for most players on the Redskins defense right now. They've given up at least 31 points in every game. So Jones should have another big game. Washington has won just 3 of its last 14 NFC East games. They are just 3-8 their last 11 visits to the Giants, getting outscored by 65 points in those games. They are a mess while the G-Men finally have some momentum. Not only should the Giants be favored, they'll cover. Play on NY GIANTS

AAA

This is a 10* play on NEW ENGLAND

The Patriots and Bills are both 3-0, but don't expect this early season showdown to necessarily be a playoff preview. Buffalo has beaten the Jets, Giants and Bengals so far. You definitely won't be seeing any of those teams in the postseason. Then again, the same could be said for New England's first three opponents, which includes Miami. Last week saw the Patriots play the Jets and while the final score was 30-14, it easily could have been 30-0. The New England defense has still not allowed a touchdown this year as the Jets two scores came from special teams and defense. Through three games, the Patriots have outscored teams by 89 points. The Bills have outscored opponents by just 19 points. That's why New England remains such a sizable road favorite in this spot. That and the fact they have dominated this AFC East rivalry, winning 42 of the 58 meetings since Tom Brady came onto the scene in 2001. They've also taken the last five meetings, winning all of them by at least 12 points. Josh Allen is just starting his second year as the Bills QB. He makes a lot of errors. New England has won 17 straight times when facing a first or second year starting QB. Prior to last week's win over Cincinnati, the Bills had been 0-4 SU and ATS when off two straight wins. They didn't cover against the Bengals, a winless team mind you, and almost lost the game. Again, the Patriots have allowed 17 points in three games. Play on NEW ENGLAND

AAA

This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA

The Eagles are 1-2, not to mention a banged up football team right now. Down both starting receivers last week, they lost at home to the Lions 27-24. But as you can see from that score, offense wasn't really the problem. Even with DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery out, the Eagles had more first downs than the Lions did and outgained them on the day. The problems were special teams and turnovers. Detroit returned a kickoff for a TD early in the game and would not have won without it. Philly also fumbled twice and both times it led to a Lions field goal. Then there was the Eagles failure to take advantage of a Lions special teams miscue. Late in the game, they blocked a Matt Prater field goal attempt. Despite starting at midfield, Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense could not move the ball into scoring position, instead turning it over on downs. Jeffery is expected back this week as is TE Dallas Goebert, who was limited to just nine snaps against the Lions. Green Bay is a perfect 3-0 straight up and against the spread, but a little lucky to be in this position considering they have been outgained in every game. Key for them is being +6 in turnovers as the defense has been much better than expected. But we don't see the Pack covering for a third straight time as home favorites. As an underdog, the Eagles are 9-4 ATS the last two seasons with eight outright victories. We'll take the points. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON

The Redskins will look to reverse the franchise's "curse" on Monday Night Football. Of all the things that have plagued this franchise in recent years, an 0-6 SU/ATS mark in the NFL's marquee primetime game is definitely one of them. This year, the team comes into its MNF appearance at 0-2 with a couple of division losses to Philadelphia and Dallas and in desperate need of a spark. Getting points against a Chicago team that struggles to score may be just what they need. The Bears are lucky not to be 0-2 themselves as they got a last second 50+ yard field goal to beat Denver 16-14 last week. That was after losing the season opener 10-3 to the rival Packers. After going 12-5 ATS last season (including playoff loss), the Bears are 0-2 ATS to start 2019. They were favored in both games. A second straight game as a road favorite seems dicey for a team with a struggling quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky has been very bad so far this year, ranking 32nd in both yards per pass attempt and passer rating. He's completing only 58.3% of his passes. As we saw in multiple games yesterday, 0-2 teams often show up in these situations and are good bets when taking points. Not sure if it means anything, but the Redskins have beaten the Bears seven straight times dating back to the 2003 season. They are 13-2 SU head to head since 1989. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND

Doesn't seem like there's many takers on the Browns this week, but they look like the right side to us Sunday night. Take away one bad quarter against the Titans and this defense has played really well so far. While it's certainly a big step up facing Jared Goff and the Rams, they'll have a fired up crowd rooting them on as this is the first Sunday night game in Cleveland in 11 years. The Rams had a close win (3 points) over Carolina in Week 1, then knocked Drew Brees out last week, turning a game with the Saints into an noncompetitive affair. Believe it or not, the Browns offense is actually averaging more yards per play (6.3) than the Rams are (5.7) through two games. Cleveland is 4-1 ATS as a home dog since last year began. After being such a popular team with the public to start the year, the Browns don't seem to have much support this week. But we think that's the perfect time to take them as we can smell a potential upset in this one. Grab the points. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY

Obviously, the big story here is the Giants moving on from Eli Manning and going with rookie Daniel Jones as the starting quarterback. Does it even matter though? The Giants are a bad team that has beaten by double digits in both games. Also, have we forgotten just how divisive of a draft choice Jones was? Many respected minds thought he was a HUGE reach at #6 overall. Two good preseason performances aren't enough to sway us. Something else not helping the Giants case here is that Tampa Bay is on extra rest. The Buccaneers picked up their first win of the season last Thursday by going to Carolina and upsetting the Panthers. Unlike the Giants, the Bucs defense seems a lot better this year. Credit goes to new coordinator Todd Bowles. Tampa is allowing 1.5 yards less per play compared to last year. They've also given up only 31 points in two games. The Giants have scored just 31 points in two games. New York has also lost 13 of 17 road games and is just 1-8 SU in the month of September (2-7 ATS). This is the 6th time in 7 seasons they've started 0-2. Jones alone isn't enough to save this Giants team, if he is even capable of saving anything. One could argue that the Giants may not even be salvageable. Lay the points. Play on TAMPA BAY

AAA

This is an 8* play on KANSAS CITY

We used both of these teams in Week 1. The Ravens crushed the Dolphins 59-10. The Chiefs had no problem beating the Jaguars 40-26. Both are now 2-0. This will be hyped as an early season showdown in the AFC with the winner probably deemed as the conference's top challenger to the Patriots. But there is a reason to still be a little skeptical of Baltimore. They have played two poor teams to get to 2-0. Obviously, Miami is the worst team in the league. Arizona, who they barely beat last week, isn't far ahead and has a rookie QB. Had the Cardinals not settled for three field goals inside the Ravens' five-yard line last week, they easily could have pulled the upset.  The Chiefs two victims, Jacksonville and Oakland, aren't exactly great either. But we know the Chiefs can beat the Ravens with Lamar Jackson. They did it last year. Now that took overtime, but they did win. We expect a larger margin of victory this year. Strangely, the Chiefs scored all four touchdowns last week in the second quarter. They scored 68 points in the first six quarters of the year before shockingly hanging a "goose egg" in the second half vs. the Raiders. But one positive was the defensive pitching a shutout in the final three quarters. They held the Raiders to 5.2 yards per pass attempt The Chiefs are on a 9-0 ATS run in September and 16-5-1 ATS in Week 3. This is their home opener. Play on KANSAS CITY

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

The Vikings and Raiders have combined to go Under in all four of their games so far. But we anticipate a bit higher scoring affair for them as they meet in Week 3. Minnesota had a very efficient 28 points in a Week 1 win over Atlanta. That was at home and they return to TCF Bank Stadium this week. They should have scored more than 16 last week, but Kirk Cousins threw a BAD interception against the Packers, basically costing his team the game. The Vikings offense actually averaged 7.0 yards per play in that game, but went 0 for 2 in the red zone and turned it over a total of four times. The defense was torched by Aaron Rodgers early, but then kept the team in the game as long as they could. While Minnesota's D didn't allow any points over the last 44 minutes, Oakland failed to score at all in the final three quarters last week vs. Kansas City. That after a 10-point fourth quarter and efficient Week 1 win (over Denver) of their own. Strangely, the Raiders defense allowed four touchdowns in the second quarter vs. the Chiefs, but no points at all in the other three quarters. They still allowed almost 7.0 yards/play though. The Raiders are 4-0 Over their last four games on field turf. Play OVER Oakland-Minnesota

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

The Titans were oh so close to 2-0 last week, but couldn't finish the job against the Colts. They had a late 17-13 lead, but after a missed FG things quickly went awry. The Colts scored the go-ahead touchdown after a 55-yard run, but a missed XP by Adam Vinateri definitely left the door open for Tennessee, who was down only 19-17. But the Titans offense could muster nothing on its final two drives. Still, they're in better position than the 0-2 Jaguars, who went for 2 and the win against Houston (could have kicked XP and gone to OT instead). They obviously failed and it was a 13-12 loss. While it was a low-scoring game for both teams last week, let's go back to Week 1. Tennessee scored 43 while Jacksonville gave up 40. This will likely end up closing as the lowest total on the Week 3 board despite what happened in Week 1. There's definitely value on the Over in our estimation. The Over is 6-2 in the Titans last eight Thursday games and 4-0 when they are off an ATS loss. Jacksonville is 6-2 Over if they allowed 15 or less points in the last game. Play OVER Tennessee-Jacksonville

AAA

This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND

After a disastrous Week 1 performance, Cleveland has caught a major break here with Jets quarterback Sam Darnold being out due to mono. In his place, the Jets turn to Trevor Siemian, who was last seen guiding an anemic offense in Denver last season. It's not that Darnold is any kind of All-Pro, it's just that we think Siemian is that bad. But perhaps more concerning are the injuries on the defensive side of the ball for the Jets as LB CJ Mosley and DL Quennin Williams are both going to miss tonight's game. While it's true the Jets blew a 16-0 lead to the Bills last week, they were actually quite fortunate to even be in that position as Bills quarterback Josh Allen accounted for four first half turnovers. The Browns got a ton of offseason hype and know that another loss could mean the wheels will start coming off for rookie coach Freddie Kitchens. While the Jets may not have been as "unlucky" as you think they were last week, the Browns weren't as outclassed by the Titans as you might think in a 43-13 loss. It was still a two-point game very late in the third quarter. If they are able to cut down on their own mistakes (namely penalties!), we've seen how little a Darnold-led Jets offense can do. Now just imagine how poor they'll be with Siemian taking snaps. The Browns beat the Jets last year, thanks to Baker Mayfield coming in and leading a comeback. With him now fully embedded as the starter, look for a fast start by the Browns Monday night. Play CLEVELAND 

AAA

This is a 10* on JACKSONVILLE

With a game that has such a low total, this sure is a lot of points for the Texans to be laying. Sure, disaster struck Jacksonville with quarterback Nick Foles going down with a collarbone injury in Week 1. Foles, the team's key free agent signing in the offseason, was supposed to help transform an offense that wasn't very good in 2018. Now it's rookie Gardner Minshew (Wash St) calling the shots. Still, it's a lot points. Houston is on working on a short week as they played Monday night in New Orleans. They lost that game in heartbreaking fashion after Saints QB Drew Brees drove his team down for the winning field goal. That came right after DeShaun Watson drove the Texans down the field for a temporary lead. Given the situation, this is too many points to lay with Houston. What if Minshew turns out not to be a liability? Against Kansas City, he actually completed 22 of his 25 pass attempts for 275 yards. That was in an emergency situation. The road team is on an 11-4-1 ATS run in this AFC rivalry, so we'll take the points. Play on JACKSONVILLE

AAA

This is a 10* Play on the UNDER

Last week's game involving the Chargers should have been an Under as they led 24-16 with less than a minute to go. But the defense not only let the Colts drive down for a touchdown, but also gave up a two-point conversion that sent the game into overtime. Fortunately for Chargers fans, Philip Rivers got the ball first in OT and never let the Colts have a chance as LA scored a TD on its first possession. But the Chargers weren't the only team last week to have overtime ruin what looked to be a sure under. Detroit led Arizona 24-6 early in the fourth quarter before Cardinals rookie Kyler Murray awoke and led his team on a wild comeback. The game wound up going to OT, but unlike Chargers-Colts, there was no winner as it ended up a 27-27 tie. This week, the Chargers offense won't have TE Hunter Henry nor will they have him the rest of the season (fractured knee). That'll affect them drastically. They are already without RB Melvin Gordon, who is holding out. Austin Eckler had the game of his life starting in place of Gordon last week, but won't be repeating that performance here. Detroit's offense will probably look to run a lot here after the Chargers defense got gashed on the ground by the Colts. But we're not sure the Lions will have the same success. The Under hit in the last five Lions home games last year. Play UNDER Chargers-Detroit

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

We've seen this total skyrocket due to Baltimore putting up 59 points in Week 1. But such efficiency is highly unlikely two weeks in a row and even if the Ravens are successful again this week (and it's very likely they will be), they won't be scoring as much. With top overall draft pick Kyler Murray making his first career start, the Arizona offense looked pretty bad for three quarters last week. They scored only six points before a furious late rally forced overtime and ultimately earned them a tie with the Lions. Again, it's likely the Cardinals find themselves down entering the 4th quarter here. But the Ravens defense won't be nearly as generous as the Lions were. They gave up just 200 total yards to Miami. In the last 10 years, the Ravens have only lost to a rookie QB one time.  Baltimore won't be scoring 40+ every week, or even most weeks this season. Not all, but a good deal of their offensive performance last week had to do with whom they were facing. Arizona had the worst record in the league last year, but they're better than Miami. This will be a relatively low-scoring affair and best of all is that the number has been bet up several points, presenting us with a value situation. Play UNDER Arizona-Baltimore

AAA

This is an 8* play on MIAMI

It's only Week 2, but Miami already finds itself in a position where they are taking 18.5 points at home. If that seems preposterous, then you obviously missed last week's performance where they were clobbered 59-10 by Baltimore - at home. Getting matched up here with the Patriots, who looked as good as ever in wiping the mat with Pittsburgh last week (33-3 win), and it's no wonder Miami is one of the biggest single game underdogs we've seen in recent years. But they still are a professional team and this is way too many points NOT to take in the NFL. It was a few years ago that Jacksonville was getting even more points on the road against Peyton Manning and Denver. They easily covered the spread. Then there's this tidbit. New England has actually LOST five of the last six games in Miami (straight up) including each of the last two years. This is the biggest home dog we've seen since 2007 ... when New England failed to cover at Baltimore. The only larger September spread - of any kind - in NFL history was 1968 and the Jets (-20) actually the lost the game on the field to the Bills. You have to take the points in this situation. It's very hard to win on the road in this league, let alone by 20 points. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Compared to the early game, Denver-Oakland figures to feature little in the way of scoring. You've got two bad offensive teams, one starting Joe Flacco at quarterback and the other trying to pick up the pieces in the wake of the Antonio Brown debacle. The Raiders are a complete joke right now as acquiring Brown cost them draft picks and he didn't he play a game for them. It's a complete distraction heading into the season, which by the way will be their final one in Oakland. This Raiders team has averaged only 18 points/game each of the past two seasons. QB Derek Carr has regressed heavily during that time. Not only do the Raiders not have Brown at their disposal, also gone is TE Jared Cook, who had a career year in 2018. The Denver offense isn't going to be much better this year with the aging Flacco serving merely as a stop gap before someone else takes the reigns (Drew Lock?). Defense is the speciality of new Broncos coach Vic Fangio, so expect them to be stronger on that side of the ball. Their defensive front should overwhelm what is looking like a terrible Oakland offensive line here. The Under went 13-3 in all Denver games a season ago. The Under is also 16-5 the Raiders last 21 games on grass. Play UNDER Denver-Oakland

AAA

This is a 10* play on NEW ORLEANS

The Saints laying less than a touchdown at home, in primetime? We'll take it! As you'll likely hear from many places, New Orleans has excelled in that very situation through the years. They almost never lose in primetime here at the Superdome and no matter what the line is they almost always cover. In fact, they are 24-11 in all primetime games since 2006, 22-8 when you exclude Thursday nights. Now you'll also hear about how the Saints are just 1-9 SU/ATS the first two weeks of the season the last five years, including 0-5 SU/ATS in season openers. They did lose outright as a big favorite last year to Tampa Bay, here at home. But look for that streak to get snapped in a major way Monday night. The Texans are just 4-10 ATS all-time on Monday Night Football. Having just traded Jadeveon Clowney, there are questions with this Houston defense. Drew Brees isn't about to let them figure it out either. Brees even got a new target this year in TE Jared Cook, who is coming off a career year in Oakland. Expect the Saints to be highly motivated for this game after the way last season ended. Houston isn't exactly known for starting the season well. They opened 0-3 last year. Winning in this building is hard and we just don't see the Texans being able to do it. They are just 3-7-1 ATS their last 11 road games while the home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times these teams have met. Play on NEW ORLEANS 

AAA

This is an 8* Play on the Steelers (FIRST HALF)

Think the Steelers miss Antonio Brown at this point? Ha! Lost in last year's disappointing season was the fact the Black and Gold earned a rare win over the Patriots. They beat them 17-10 at home in Week 15. The win snapped a five-game losing streak to the Patriots. Having rid themselves of Brown's antics, the Steelers should be a more focused and better team this year. We look for them to cover the first half line here. Pittsburgh is the last time to beat New England. More worrisome then Ben Roethlisberger losing Brown is Tom Brady losing Rob Gronkowski. New England's offense just wasn't as productive the last couple years when Gronk was out. On defense, the Steelers may finally have found a replacement for Ryan Shazier by drafting Devin Bush. By the way, they were a perfect 5-0 ATS as underdogs last season, winning four of the games straight up. Among the areas Pittsburgh will be improved in is turnover margin. They were -11 last year. Teams with a bad turnover margin usually see that number improve the following season. Expect the Steelers defense to be better this year and the Patriots defense to be worse.  We expect the Steelers to be ahead at halftime, or at least covering. Play PITTSBURGH 1st Half

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Two teams looking to improve start the season against one another, so either Detroit or Arizona will be 1-0 after the first game. That's the good news. The bad news is one of them will be 0-1. For Arizona, there's lots of room to improve after finishing with the league's worst record in 2018. They brought in a new coach (Kliff Kingsbury), who will bring his "Air Raid" offense from the college ranks. It will be run by last year's Heisman Trophy winner, Kyler Murray. But this is going to be a work in progress and you shouldn't expect the Cardinals to put up big point totals early on in the season. They just don't have the offensive personnel as was obvious last year when they were last in the league in scoring at 14.4 points/game. As for the Lions, Matt Stafford is still here and he's (kind of?) got a running game now. But Detroit only averaged 20.3 points/game last year (25th) and stayed Under in each of its last seven games. That's what we look for here. Neither offense has improved enough to have this game go Over. The Lions defense was pretty good last year, ranking in the top 10 in yards given up and top 8 against the pass. The Under is 21-7 in Arizona's last 28 home games. Play UNDER Detroit-Arizona

AAA

This is an 8* play on BALTIMORE

Probably the easiest call on the first Sunday of the NFL season would be taking the Ravens to beat the Dolphins. Now there's a pointspread in play here obviously and that number has come up (by several points) since it opener. But Miami is going to be so bad that this year that the line move hardly scares us. Remember what happened in Week 1 last year? Baltimore was facing a Buffalo team that - at the time - many thought could be the worst in the league. The Ravens won that game 47-3! Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting for the Dolphins, which doesn't sound very promising. This team is clearly tanking this year, which is why it recently traded away Laremy Tunsil, Kiko Alonso and Kenny Stills despite not having adequate replacements. If all goes according to plan in Miami, they will end up with the first pick in the Draft next April. If all goes according to plan in Baltimore, they will be back in the playoffs. Lamar Jackson took over at QB in the middle of last season and that's when the Ravens went on their run. Jackson should have a big game here - both running and throwing - against a Miami defense that will struggle to stop anybody this year. Baltimore is on an 8-3 SU/ATS run in Week 1 games where it has allowed an average of just 14.9 points. Play on BALTIMORE

AAA

This is an 8* on KC Moneyline

It very well could end up being close, but we look for the Chiefs to beat the Jaguars in Week 1. Kansas City is coming off a tremendous year in which it hosted the AFC Championship Game (lost to the Patriots). Jacksonville went 5-11 a year ago, leading to wholesale changes. The most notable is that Nick Foles, the Super Bowl hero from two years ago, is now the starting QB. But the Jaguars are simply not on the Chiefs level - yet. These teams played last year - at Arrowhead Stadium - and the Chiefs won 30-14 after scoring on their first four offensive possessions. The Chiefs had one of the best offenses in league history last year. The Jaguars were one of the NFL's worst offensive teams. Foles alone cannot rectify the difference. The Chiefs have covered seven straight September games. Pat Mahomes is 6-2-1 ATS on the road. Kansas City wins this game as they are the better team. Play Kansas City (money line)

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

The Bears had a top flight defense last season, leading the league in interceptions with 27 while allowing a league-low 27 touchdowns. While they do have to replace defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, virtually all the same personnel returns for second year coach Matt Nagy, with one notable exception. That would be Adrian Amos, who will now start at safety for Green Bay! Interestingly enough, Amos' replacement is former Bear Ha-Ha Clinton Dix. The Packers defense should be better this year thanks to eight new starters. The offense is actually a more interesting deal. The numbers last year were not all that impressive even though Aaron Rodgers played a whole season. That was part of the reason Mike McCarthy is gone. New coach Matt LaFleur has installed a new offense and don't be surprised if, as great as he is, it takes Rodgers some time to adjust. The Packers, who don't run the ball that well to begin with, will likely struggle to run in this game. Chicago closed last season on a 5-0 Under run. Green Bay closed on a 7-3 Under run. Both meetings last year ended up with similar point totals, 47 and 41, and we don't think there will be more points scored here. Five of the last seven meetings have seen 47 or less total points scored. Play UNDER Green Bay-Chicago

AAA

This is a 10* play on the RAMS 

I like the Rams in this year's Super Bowl. I understand that the Patriots bring both experience and "name value," but neither of those qualities necessarily ensure that they will be the better team come Sunday. Having won with each team in their respective Conference Championship Games, I'm obviously impressed with both sides. In fact, I also won with both in their Divisional Round contests. But you can only pick one and the fact the Rams overcame an early deficit in the Superdome to win impressed me more than what the Patriots did at Kansas City. Also, note that being an underdog is foreign to both teams. Neither had been one in any game this year before two weeks ago. Under Sean McVay, Los Angeles has been a dog just six times. Factoring out Week 17 of last season (rested starters), they are 4-1 ATS, winning outright four times. Experience certainly didn't matter in last year's Super Bowl when the Eagles downed the Patriots. All eight of the Super Bowls New England has been in with Brady and Belichick have ultimately been decided by one possession. Only two (the last two years) have been decided by a margin larger than four points and one of those two was the OT game vs. Atlanta. So taking points, no matter how few, seems like the right call. Play LA RAMS

AAA 

This is 10* play on the UNDER for the Super Bowl.

The expectation for this year's Super Bowl is that two of the league's higher scoring teams won't have much trouble scoring in what will favorable (indoor) conditions at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta. New England certainly hasn't had much difficulty scoring in the postseason, averaging 39 points in wins over the Chargers and Chiefs. But Los Angeles had a terrible defensive gameplan and the Chiefs defense, at least statistically, is one of the worst in the league. But we should also remember that the Patriots had scored only 17 points through three quarters in KC before a wild fourth quarter took us to overtime. I was fortunate to have the Over in the AFC Championship Game, but will be going the other way in the Super Bowl as the Rams have the best defense NE has seen in some time. Also, while Los Angeles scored 33 or more points nine times in their first 11 games, they have done so just once in the last seven games. Super Bowls traditionally start slow. This one should be no different. This total will close as either the highest or 2nd highest for any SB in history. The previous high, set two years ago when the Patriots played the Falcons, only went Over because of overtime. Play UNDER Patriots-Rams

AAA

This is an 8* play on the PATRIOTS

It's somewhat ironic that both underdogs this week (New England, Los Angeles) have not been an underdog in any other game this season. With the Patriots, they haven't been a dog since Week 1 of the 2016 season when they played at Arizona and Tom Brady was suspended. They still won that game, mind you. The last time Brady was an underdog was Week 14 of the 2014 season and the Patriots lost to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, 26-21. But that's the only time in the last five tries New England hasn't covered as an underdog. They haven't been an underdog in the playoffs since the 2014 AFC Championship at Denver. This week will be just the 7th time in 39 playoff games with Brady & Belichick that the Patriots are underdogs. They have a far better playoff resume that Andy Reid and Kansas City and I think that matters. The Patriots also already own a win over the Chiefs this year, 43-40 in Foxboro. While they did need a last second Stephen Gostkowski field goal to win, New England led for all but all seven minutes of actual game time. They also rolled up 500 yards on the Chiefs defense. Last week, you saw how dominant Brady can be when he's doubted. The Patriots scored 35 points in the first half. They'll be motivated again here. Play on NEW ENGLAND.

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER between New England & Kansas City.

The Over on last Sunday's Chargers-Patriots game, my only play on a NFL total for the whole weekend, won easily. As you may have read when buying this selection, was a LOCK by halftime, a WINNER by the third quarter & ended up going Over by THREE touchdowns! New England had 35 points by halftime and then was able to take its foot off the gas. The amount of scoring done by the Patriots does decline greatly on the road. But the good news for this week is that they won't have to score nearly as many points this week for the game to go Over. Not when faced with Kansas City's offense, which ranked 1st in yards per game, per play and points during the regular season. When these teams met in the regular season, it was 43-40, a win for New England. Maybe this game isn't as high scoring. But I don't think they'll combined to score 30 less points, do you? The Over is 6-1 in the Patriots last seven playoff games. Play New England @ Kansas City OVER. 

AAA

This is a 10* Play on the RAMS.

There's a lot of attention this week on the fact that the PATRIOTS are an underdog for the first time since the 1st week of the 2016 season. But the RAMS are the only other team besides the Patriots to have been favored in every game this year. That includes when they played here at the Superdome back in Week 9. Of course, they lost that game. It was their first loss all season (started 8-0) and while the final score ended up being 45-35 Saints, it was really never close as the Rams trailed virtually the whole game and were down 35-17 in the first half. Like New England, LA is now a dog for the 1st time all year when playing for its Conference Championship. I think the fact the line has moved so much for this rematch is significant when handicapping this game. The Rams actually closed at -2.5 for the regular season matchup. Are things really that different now? I understand that the Saints won easily the first time around and have never lost a home playoff game with Drew Brees as the starting QB. But, if anything is different this time around, it's that the Saints aren't looking as strong as they did just a few weeks ago. They trailed the Eagles last week, 14-0, before scoring 20 unanswered. But those 20 points did not come easy. Since they last faced the Rams, the vaunted New Orleans offense has been held to 20 points or less in four of seven games. I like the points here. Play on LA RAMS.

AAA

This is an 8* play on the Saints.

So I expected this line to come down a bit as the Eagles' playoff record with Nick Foles as the quarterback is well known. But it really hasn't and upon second thought, I have no hesitation in laying the points with the Saints at home. Foles' reputation may work against his team, which lost 48-7 on this field in the regular season. It's a different Eagles team now, but are they really four touchdowns better now than they were in November. I think not. New Orleans, off a bye, should be as strong as ever with Drew Brees leading the way. For a second year in a row, the Saints offense was top five in both rushing and passing. In the last five home games that Brees has played (remember, he sat the regular season finale), the Saints have averaged 40 PPG! The Saints aren't just all offense anymore though; they boasted the top run defense in the league this year, allowing only 80 YPG. The Saints have won their last five playoff home games, so homefield advantage is a very real thing in this Divisional Round matchup. As they showed in the regular season, the Saints are simply a much better team than the Eagles this year. Play on NEW ORLEANS 

AAA

This is a 10* play on the Over in Chargers-Patriots

The Chargers scored 23 points on the Ravens in the Wild Card Game, but they certainly didn't come easy. It was five field goals and a touchdown (with a 2-pt conversion). But keep in mind that was the best defense in the league they were facing. I got the distinct impression that had they been facing most other defenses, Philip Rivers and the offense would have scored a lot more points. Los Angeles averages 26.8 points per game and is one of the top teams in yards per play. So what I'm saying is that they should score more this week against the Patriots than they did last week vs. the Ravens. Of course, New England should score plenty as well. Tom Brady and the Pats offense were a lot more effective at home this year, so it's huge getting this game in Foxboro. They were the league's only unbeaten team at home (8-0) and a big reason for that is they averaged 32.9 PPG here. Only the Rams and Saints averaged more points at home this year. While each team has gone Under in its last three games, the Chargers had to play Baltimore twice (and a Denver team that isn't very good on offense) while the Patriots played two bad offensive teams (Jets, Bills) and a road game vs. the Steelers. Play OVER on Chargers-Patriots 

AAA

This is a 10* play on the Patriots 

The Chargers beat the Ravens in the Wild Card Round, but the win would certainly qualify as "ugly" with Baltimore's offense not doing much for the first three quarters save for gifting LA numerous opportunities to take advantage of. The Chargers scored just one offensive TD the entire game and got three fields on drives that went less than 20 yards, thanks to either Ravens turnovers or a key special teams plays. Tom Brady and the Patriots will not provide such opportunities. Off a bye and at home, this is an ideal price range to grab New England. Keep in mind that they are 24-4 SU the last 28 home games, also going 20-8 ATS. During that time, they are 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. This season saw them win all four games in that range. This is just the fifth time with Belichick & Brady that New England is laying less than six points in Foxboro. They are 3-1 SU and ATS the previous four. They are the only team that won all eight home games in the regular season. For what it's worth, the Patriots are also 4-0 SU and ATS the last four meetings with the Chargers. This is Los Angeles' second straight week playing an early start in the Eastern Time Zone. That does them no favors against a superior side. Play on NEW ENGLAND. 

AAA

This is a 10* play on the LA RAMS. 

Despite having Todd Gurley, don't expect the Rams to do what the Seahawks attempted (and failed) to do last week against the Cowboys. That would be run, run and run some more. Seattle OC Brian Schottenhiemer essentially taking the game out of Russell Wilson's hands was foolish to say the least and isn't something we're likely to see here from Rams coach Sean McVay and QB Jared Goff. As they're coming off a bye, I like the Rams at home quite a bit this week. It's been almost 25 years since the Cowboys won multiple playoff games in the same year. They have not won a playoff road game since 1993. Los Angeles will be extra motivated after losing last year's playoff game at home (to the Falcons). As we saw last week, the Dallas defense is good against the run, but they can be beat through the air. Wilson averaged 8.6 yards per attempt against them. No NFC team averaged more yards per play than the Rams did in the regular season. After the back door cover that affected most last week (not me as I bet Dallas -1), the Cowboys are 6-13 ATS against teams with winning records. Play on LA RAMS

AAA

My *10* NFL Playoff Game of the YEAR is on the BEARS. 

Don't be fooled into thinking that the 12-4 Bears drew some sort of "unfavorable" matchup here with the 9-7 Eagles. Sure, it would have been nice to play the Vikings against based on how easily the Monsters of the Midway dispatched of them (in Minnesota) in Week 17. But the amount of respect Philadelphia is getting here is based on LAST season, not this one when they were a very mediocre team. Yes, Nick Foles is back at QB and he led Philly to a Super Bowl last year. But, statistically, this year's Eagles are not close to last year's. They're also having to go on the road here. (Last year, they only need to win two home games to get to the SB. This year, they'd have to win three on the road). The Eagles were outgained both on a per game and per play basis in the regular season. Chicago comes in with perhaps the best defense in the league. They are allowing just 17.7 points per game and should give Foles and what remains a limited offense plenty of trouble. As for the Bears offense, coach Matt Nagy has done a great job at managing QB Mitchell Trubisky and he'll have plenty of chances to make plays against an Eagles defense that is still beat up on the back end. Chicago has been the far better team this year and has covered 9 of its last 10 games. The only non-cover was a FG loss in overtime. They are 16-4-1 ATS their previous 21 home games. The BEARS are my *10* Playoff Game of the Year. 

AAA

This is a 10* play on Over Chargers-Ravens

The 12-4 Chargers and the 10-6 Ravens just met two weeks ago with Baltimore holding LA to its worst offensive game of the season. The Bolts finished with just 198 total yards and no play went for more than 17. They scored only 10 points and their one touchdown came on a drive that started on Baltimore 17-yard line after a fumble. The Ravens ended up winning 22-10, sealing the deal with a defensive touchdown. Despite the inferior record, they get to be the home team this team by virtue of winning their division. Look for the sequel to be higher scoring than the original. Yes, Baltimore's defense is most definitely "for real," but the Chargers are one of the few (maybe the only?) team to play better on the road than at home. Philip Rivers posted the second best QBR in the league in road games this year. Also, Baltimore ran for "only" 159 yards in the first meeting. Though the Chargers are the first team that gets to see Lamar Jackson twice, don't expect their defense to have the same success the second time around. That previous rushing yardage total was the lowest for any of Jackson's seven starts and I expect the Ravens offense to be closer to 200, a number they've already cracked five teams with him as the starter. Play the OVER in Chargers-Ravens

AAA

This is an 8* play on DALLAS

The nightcap Saturday sees the 10-6 Cowboys hosting the 10-6 Seahawks. Dallas got the homefield advantage by winning the NFC East while Seattle had to settle for second in the NFC West. But the Seahawks did beat the Cowboys in the regular season, 24-13, all the way back in Week 3. But that game was in Seattle. Dallas played pretty poorly, turning it over three times and as a result trailed by double digits most of the way. But their defense did a good job, holding Russell Wilson and company to less than 300 total yards and just 113 rushing. The key to the Seattle offense is running the football as they led the league in that department. But the Cowboys defense was one of the best at stopping the run. They allow only 94.6 rush yards per game, which ranked 5th in the league. Really, the Dallas defense deserves more accolades as it was pretty great this year. A big reason America's Team was 7-1 in "Jerry World" this year was that the defense gave up only 18.5 PPG. Seattle's defense allowed at least 24 points in six of the last eight games. The Seahawks are only 1-5 ATS their last six playoff games. In both games Saturday, the better defensive team is playing at home. I expect both to win. Play on the COWBOYS.

AAA

This is an 8* play on the TEXANS

It's two AFC South teams matching up in our first Wild Card Game of the weekend. The 11-5 Texans host the 10-6 Colts. Saturday marks the third time they will have met this season and the road team has had the edge so far, winning and covering both games. But I think I would be foolish to think there's any kind of "edge" being the road team in the NFL playoffs. Indianapolis was only 4-4 on the road in the regular season as opposed to 6-2 at home. On offense, they are likely going to be reduced to a one-dimension attack here. They could not run on this Houston defense in either regular season meeting, totaling just 91 yards. That's going to put a lot of pressure on Andrew Luck. The Texans allow only 17 points per game at home. The Colts scored 24 in their visit, but that was actually the second most points by any visitor this year at NRG Stadium. I do not see them scoring that many this time. Something I find interesting is that Houston was actually a 1-pt favorite for the game in Indianapolis, then a 4-pt favorite for the last game here. Good value this third time around. The Colts are just 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff road games. I look for Houston QB Watson to make more plays than Luck on Saturday, getting his team the win. Play on the TEXANS

AAA

This is a 7* play on the Under in Colts-Texans.

In my writeup on the side of this game, I established that I don't the Colts offense is in for a very successful game Saturday in Houston. The Texans defense is very strong against the run as they allow 3.4 yards per carry, which was the best mark in the NFL. To reiterate, the two times these teams played in the regular season, Indianapolis ran for just 91 yards. That wasn't their average per game, mind you. That was the total number of rush yards in two games (50 + 41). In three of the last five games, the Colts ran for 50 yards or less. Houston allows only 17.0 PPG at home. While I obviously expect them to win this game, look for them to have a somewhat limited day offensively as well. Over the last seven games, the Colts gave up more than 21 points just twice. The Under was 5-2 in those seven games, including the one here in H-town. The Under is also 8-1 the last nine times the Colts have played a team with a winning record. It's 5-1 their last six Wild Card games as well. Houston has seen the Under hit in five of its last seven home games and 13 of its last 18 against AFC teams. Play UNDER on Colts-Texans.

AAA

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Indianapolis Colts.

This is a big game, as the winner will advance with a wild card spot, while the loser will be going golfing. Andrew Luck and the Colts though annihilated the Titans 38-10 at home in the first matchup this year and we believe a similar result is in the cards here as well. Also note that Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota is questionable for this one and if he does play, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% health. Finally note that the Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning records, while the Titans are just 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. teams with winning road records. Lay the points, play on the COLTS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Suffice it to say, we’re expecting a beatdown from start to finish here. The Bengals come in off a 26-18 road loss to Cleveland, while Pittsburgh fell 31-28 on the road in New Orleans last Sunday. The Steelers have won seven straight in the series though, including a 28-21 road win in the first one this year. Bengals’ starting QB Andy Dalton though isn’t playing anymore and the Bengals have nothing to play for. Pittsburgh has to win this game and have the Ravens lose to Cleveland to make the postseason. We’re expecting the under-achieving home side to lay the foot on the gas from start to finish. Note that the STEELERS are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six following an ATS win, while Cincinnati is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a road loss vs. a division rival. Lay the points with confidence.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* O/U BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Broncos/Raiders.

With nothing to play for, not even the role of spoiler, we look for these teams to simply “go through the motions” tonight. Denver Broncos coach Vance Joseph will be reportedly fired at the end of the season, so the entire organization is in upheaval right now. Jon Gruden completely blew up his roster and the Raiders will be in rebuilding mode for a few years. As mentioned off the top, these teams have nothing to play. Note that Denver has seen the total go UNDER the number in 14 of its last 19 on the road, while Oakland has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five as a home underdog of seven points or less. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NON-CONF. SIDE OF THE YEAR on the Colts.

We’re not expecting any upsets here as we look for Indianapolis to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. Indianapolis is a team on a mission right now and it’ll be looking to build off its 23-0 home win over Dallas last week. The Giants tried their best to play spoiler last week, but they got destroyed by the Titans. With OBJ sidelined, we’re not giving the visitors much of a chance in this difficult road venue. With last week’s loss the Giants are now officially out of contention. The Colts though are firing on all cylinders and could be the team to beat in the AFC this year. Note that New York is just 4-10-2 ATS in is last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record, while Indianapolis is 32-14-1 ATS in its last 47 vs. teams with losing records. Lay the points; play on the COLTS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Texans/Eagles.

From a situational stand point, we think this one sets up great as a higher-scoring shootout. Both teams have struggled at times to put points on the board this season. Each relies heavily on its defensively play. Houston rebounded from a loss to the Colts to beat the Jets 29-22 last weekend. We look for DeShaun Watson and company to carry that momentum over here. Philadelphia enters off a much needed 30-23 road win over the Rams with Nick Foles under center last week. With nothing to lose, Foles and company will be given the green light today to test this tough Texans defense. Note though that Houston has seen the total go OVER the number in six of seven off a road win vs. an opponent, while Philadelphia has seen the total go OVER in 14 of its last 23 after a SU victory. This number is low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* O/U BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Ravens/Chargers.

This is a big game for both teams. The Ravens come in on top form, having won four of five since rookie QB Lamar Jackson took ver the job. Jackson isn’t asked to do too much, just to protect the ball, throw short crossing routes and use his legs when he gets into trouble. The Ravens rely on a strong run game and their No. 1 ranked defense. The Chargers are 11-3 and they come in having won four straight. Philip Rivers and company will be doing everything they can to get the defensive minded Ravens out of their comfort zone and with the home side pushing the pace at every moment possible while on offense, we’re expecting this total to sneak OVER sooner than later. Note as well that Baltimore has seen the total go OVER the number in its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while LA has seen the total go OVER in three of four already this year off a division game. This number is a little low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NFC SOUTH TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between the Saints/Panthers.

New Orleans is 11-2 and it still needs some victories to earn the bye with LA sitting with the identical record. The Saints own the tie-breaker, but clearly Brees and company can ill afford to take the foot off the gas at this point. Carolina opened the season 5-1, but at 6-7, it still is completely in the playoff hunt with three other clubs tied with an identical record. We’re fully expecting these “hungry” sides to open up the playbook and to push the pace from start to finish. Note as well that New Orleans has seen the total go OVER the number in its last three after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games, while Carolina has seen the total go OVER in five of six at home already. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

If you’re wagering on this game, then a “break down” of individual player match-ups, a history of what the two teams have done against each other and their strengths and weaknesses are well known to even the most casual NFL fan. It wouldn’t be hard to make a convincing argument for either of these teams. Both have looked unbeatable at times this season and they’ve also each looked pretty terrible in others. This time around though, we really do think that home field will prove to be a big difference maker this week. Note as well that New England is already only 1-3 ATS this year as a road favorite of seven points or less, while Pittsburgh is 3-0 ATS this season when playing the role of underdog. Play on the STEELERS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between the Packers/Bears.

Green Bay put on an impressive performance in its 34-20 home win over the Falcons, but consistency on the road has been a big issue for Green Bay. And now the Packers face a revenge minded Bears team (lost 24-23 in the first meeting), which comes off its best defensive performance of the year in its 15-6 home win over the Rams. Green Bay is averaging 24.2 PPG and its allowing 23.6, while Chicago is averaging 27.6 PPG and allowing 19. Note that Green Bay has already seen the total go UNDER in all three games that it’s played in this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Chicago has seen the total go UNDER in 13 of its last 22 at home. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the OVER between the Texans/Jets.

The Jets have nothing to play for this season, but the players have everything to play for for next year. The Jets will be trying to build some momentum and something positive for 2019 and they’d love nothing more than to play spoiler to the Texans, who are looking to rebound after their nine-game win streak was snapped last week against division rival Indianapolis. Houston once again has a great defense, but the big difference has been the improved play of QB DeShaun Watson, who has 3,298 yards and 22 TD’s this year. Jets’ rookie QB Sam Darnold returned last week vs. the Bills and New York broke a three-game slide with a 27-23 win. There’s no reason not to think that Darnold and company won’t carry that momentum over here. Note that Houston has seen the total go OVER in three of its last four after a loss by three points or less, while New York has seen the total go OVER in four of five already this season as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is a little low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the Chargers/Chiefs.

The Chiefs beat the Chargers in LA 38-28 in Week 1. The first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams is “high-scoring, gun-slinging” offenses. And why not? With Patrick Mahomes and Philip Rivers going head-to-head, there’s no doubt why this number has been posted so high. 

However, the short week and the extreme importance of the overall situation as far as playoff standings sets this up as more of a defensive affair in our opinion.

Additionally note that LA has seen the total go UNDER the number in ten of its last 16 vs. the division and in its last two Thursday night games, while KC has seen the total go UNDER the number in 17 of its last 24 at home and in three of its last four after a win by three points or less. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Seattle Seahawks.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Minnesota is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after scoring 14 points or less in its previous competition, while Seattle is already 3-1 ATS at home and when playing the role of favorite this year, but also 8-2 ATS in its last ten off a divisional contest.

The bottom line: This is an important game for both teams, but home field is a major advantage here. Expect Russell Wilson to deliver the goods; play on the SEAHAWKS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER between the Rams/Bears.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that LA has seen the total go OVER the number in 11 of its last 16 after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games, while Chicago has seen the total go OVER in three of its last four after an extremely close road loss of three points or less.

The bottom line: Both of these first place teams still need victories to lock down a top playoff spot. All signs point to a higher-scoring affair; play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Green Bay Packers.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Atlanta is just 1-3 ATS as an underdog already this year and 4-7 ATS in its last 11 off an upset loss as a favorite, while Green Bay is still 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a home favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range and 4-1 ATS in its last five after having lost five or six out of its last seven games. 

The bottom line: The loser is officially eliminated. Aaron Rodgers doesn’t go down without a fight, especially at home. Lay the points; play on the PACKERS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Tennessee Titans.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Jacksonville is just 1-3 ATS on the road this season and just 2-5 ATS in its last seven off an upset win as an underdog, while Tennessee is 12-8 ATS still in its last 20 at home and interestingly 6-2 ATS in its last eight in the final four weeks of the regular season.

The bottom line: The Jags won’t be playing in the playoffs and they enter off a very satisfying 6-0 win over the Colts. Can anyone say letdown spot?! The Titans still have hope to make an AFC Wild card game, but they have to start stringing some wins together. After last week’s late 26-22 win over the Jets, we think that TENNESSEE carries that momentum over at home on the short week; lay the points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Washington Redskins.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last six after having lost three of out if last four games SU and 11-5 ATS i its last six after one or more SU losses vs. the spread, while Philadelphia is just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.

The bottom line: With both teams desperate for this divisional victory, we’re grabbing the points and expecting it come down to the wire. Play on the REDSKINS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the LA Chargers.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that LA already 4-1 ATS on the road this year and 3-1 ATS in its last four after a two-game home stand, while Pittsburgh is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 as a home favorite of seven points or less and just 2-3 ATS in its last five after playing its last game on the road.

The bottom line: We’re grabbing the points, but not ruling out an outright upset; grab the points, play on the CHARGERS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on the Kansas City Chiefs.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that KC has is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 as a road favorite and 12-3 ATS in its last 15 vs. the division, while Oakland is a miserable 9-16 ATS in its last 25 as an underdog and only 1-3 ATS in its last four at home. 

The bottom line: The Raiders are lining up nicely for a top spot in the draft, while we look for a rested KC side to lay the hammer down from start to finish. Lay the points, play on the CHIEFS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the Saints/Cowboys.

Dallas has been getting the job done over its three game win streak with a strong run game and highly improved defensive play. The last thing the home side can do is try to match pace with Drew Brees and company, who are still looking to lock up the first round bye. But with the home side committed to try and control the pace of this one from start to finish, we do indeed expect a lower-scoring affair. Note as well that the Cowboys have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last nine home games following a three games or more SU unbeaten streak. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER Titans/Texans.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Tennessee has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of eight vs. conference opponents already this season and in three of four vs. teams with winning records, while Houston has seen the total go UNDER in six of its last nine after two or more SU wins and in three of its last four MNF contests.

The bottom line: This is an important divisional contest and we’re expecting a classic, hard-hitting defensive battle. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Green Bay Packers.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Green Bay is still 9-4 ATS in its last 13 vs. teams with winning records, while Minnesota is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 vs. the division.

The bottom line: Green Bay will be out of the playoff picture if it loses today and because of that, we’re expecting another full four quarter effort from the visiting side. Grab the points, play on the PACKERS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SIDE OF THE YEAR on the Indianapolis Colts.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Miami is already just 1-3 ATS this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road, while Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.

The bottom line: The Dolphins come out of their bye week with Ryan Tannehill under censer, but we think they’re going to stumble here against this surging COLTS side. The line moved a couple points in favor of Miami with the news of Tannehill play, but we think he’s getting far too much respect here. Lay the points and expect a blowout.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the UNDER Falcons/Saints.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Atlanta has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four “Thursday night” games, while New Orleans has seen the total go UNDER in ten of its last 15 after two or more SU victories. 

The bottom line: The Falcons are desperate for a win, as one more loss will essentially seal their fate. The last thing Atlanta can do is turn this into a shootout and expect to hang with Drew Brees and company. New Orleans has been amazing, but the short week lends itself to a letdown here. This one has UNDER written all over it.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the UNDER.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS stats and common sense:

As note that KC has seen the total go UNDER in seven of its last nine non-conference road games in which the total is set at 57 or higher, while LA has seen the total go UNDER in nine of its last 13 non-conference home games when the total is 60 or higher.

The bottom line: While many will be expecting a “shootout,” we think these hungry sides will play to much more of a defensive affair on the National Stage. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the UNDER between the Panthers/Lions.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Carolina has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 11 vs. teams with losing records, while Detroit has seen the total go UNDER in five of its last seven after two or more consecutive losses.

The bottom line: Carolina comes in off a humbling loss in Pittsburgh, but it’s still in second in the AFC South. The Lions are only averaging 21 PPG and in our opinion, this one has UNDER written all over it.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Texans/Redskins.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Houston has seen the total go OVER the number in nine of its last 15 vs. teams with winning records and in both games that it’s played in following its bye week, while Washington has seen the total go OVER the posted number in eight of 12 vs. teams with winning records and in five of its last eight a home dog of three points or less.

The bottom line: We’re expecting a wide open “shootout.” Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Seattle Seahawks.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Green Bay is just 1-3 ATS on the road this year and only 1-2 ATS vs. teams with losing records, while Seattle is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 following a divisional contests and 2-0 ATS in its last two following two or more SU losses. 

The bottom line: The Pack come in off a win at home over the Fish, while the Hawks enter off a loss in LA. Seattle looked sharp last week though and we think it’ll find a way to get the job done here and defend home field. Lay the points, play on the SEAHAWKS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the New York Giants.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that New York is already 3-1 ATS on the road this year, 9-4 ATS in its last 13 after two or more consecutive SU losses and 6-3 ATS in its last nine off a loss against a division rival, while San Fran is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight as a favorite and only 8-10 ATS in its last 18 vs. teams with losing records.

The bottom line: New York comes in rested out of its bye and desperate to avoid a 1-8 start. The 49ers enter off a satisfying 34-3 win over the Raiders, but we think it’ll take a step back here against this talented and rested GIANTS’ defense. Grab the points.

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This is a 10* UPSET SPECIAL on the Cleveland Browns.

The Falcons have won three in a row and they come in off a big victory on the road last weekend, but we think they’ll finally stumble here against a Browns team hungry for a victory. Cleveland won’t be going to the playoffs, but it also won’t go down without a fight today. Cleveland rookie QB Baker Mayfield doesn’t have a lot to work with, but he’s kept his team competitive each week and he’ll be given the “green light” here today to open things up early and often. Atlanta’s defense has been horrible, so the home side is going to have its opportunities. Note that ATL is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 non-conference contests, while Cleveland is already 2-0 ATS in non-conference contests this season. Grab the points, play on the BROWNS.

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This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Indianapolis Colts.

Jacksonville opened the year with a big win over the Patriots, but since then it’s been mostly downhill. The offense has been terrible and overall the team has had to deal with injuries from Day 1. The Colts have had to deal with injuries as well, but veteran QB Andrew Luck has for the most part been excellent. The Colts remain competitive each week with Luck in the lineup and we expect him to push the tempo and open this one up whenever he can. The Jags’ lack of offensive fire-power in this difficult road venue turns out to be the difference ultimately in the end for us. Lay the points, play on the COLTS.

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This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER Panthers/Steelers.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Carolina has seen the total go UNDER in six of its last eight off a win against a division rival, while Pittsbugh has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 13 off a win against a division rival.

The bottom line: Both teams playing at a very high level and each coming off an emotional divisional victory and playing on a “short week.” This one has defensive battle written all over it; play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the OVER Titans/Cowboys.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Tennessee has seen the total go OVER the number in 11 of its last 18 against teams with losing records and in seven of its last nine non-conference contests, while Dallas has seen the total go OVER in six of its last nine as a home fav in the 3.5 to seven points range and in its last three following its bye week.

The bottom line: And both teams do indeed come out of the bye weeks. Both sides are desperate for victories and with each opening up the playbook, look for this one to fly OVER sooner, rather than later.

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This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the UNDER Packers/Patriots.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Green Bay has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while New England has seen the total go UNDER in three of four already this year as favorite in the same points range.

The bottom-line: The Pats’ defense looked dominant in last week’s win over the Bills. The Packers’ defense also looked great in defeat to the Rams. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH on the Cleveland Browns.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that KC is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a road favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Cleveland is already 4-2 ATS this year as an underdog. 

The bottom line: We’re absolutely expecting the Chiefs to have a bit of mental letdown in Cleveland today. The BROWNS remain competitive and won’t go down without a fight. Grab the points.

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This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the UNDER between the Raiders/49ers.

The Raiders have completely torn their team apart and their only mission will be to protect QB Derek Carr for the remainder of the season. The 49ers come in on a six game losing streak and struggled to put points on the board against a poor Cardinals defense last weekend. The short week clearly isn’t going to help these struggling sides. Note that Oakland has seen the total go UNDER the number in 14 of its last 23 as an underdog, while San Fran has seen the total go UNDER in five of its last eight off a loss against a division rival. Play on the UNDER.

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This is a 10* ATS BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on the New England Patriots.

The Pats may or may not have Rob Gronkowski in the line-up, but whether the offensive star plays or not, we like Tom Brady and the surging Pats to deliver the knock out blow to the lowly Bills, who are down to their backup with rookie Josh Allen sidelined with injury. The Patriots slow 1-2 start is now a distant memory after three straight convincing victories and with a chance to continue that run, we expect the perennial favorites to take full advantage. Note as well that the PATRIOTS are 9-1 ATS in their last ten as a favorite of ten points or more. Lay the points.

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the Saints/Vikes.

Two of the top teams in the league collide on Sunday night and while these two clubs normally play to wild, wide-open “shootouts,” we’re expecting more of a conservative affair between these hungry teams on the national stage. The numbers support that as well, as note that the Saints have in fact seen the total UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after two or more consecutive SU wins, while the Vikes have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 as an underdog. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* TV TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between the Dolphins/Texans.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U stats and common sense:

As note that Miami has seen the total go OVER the number in 19 of its last 28 games played on a grass field, while Houston has seen the total go OVER in eight of its last 14 against teams with winning records.

The bottom line: Houston will be looking to deliver the knock out blow here and continue its surge after four straight wins. The Dolphins are down to their final gasp, but Brock Osweiler is going to be given the green light to “air it out” all night long. In the end, we look for this total to soar OVER once the final whistle sounds.

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This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER between the Giants/Falcons.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS stats and common sense: 

As note that New York has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 11 against teams with losing records and in 17 of its last 24 games played on “turf,” while the Falcons have seen the total go UNDER the number in six of their last ten off a win against a division rival and in their last four against an NFC East division opponent. 

The bottom line: New York obviously can’t get into a “shootout” with Matt Ryan on his home field and expect to win this one. With the visitors putting an added emphasis on their run game while on offense and taking into account the above strong O/U ATS stats, this number is indeed a little high in our opinion. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Arizona Cardinals.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Denver just 2-4 ATS in its last ten as a road favorite of three points or less and only 4-8 ATS in its last 12 after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Arizona is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home dog of three points or less and 7-3 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records.

The bottom line: Home field turns out to be the difference between these two bottom feeders. Play on the CARDINALS.

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This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Green Bay Packers.

Both teams have plenty of issues. The 49ers come off their first win of the year, but Green Bay can deliver the knock out blow to their season with a bounce back victory here after a poor effort last week. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers’ detractors are out in force right now, but we look for the all star pivot to once again step up in this pressure packed situation and to deliver a signature performance on the national stage. San Fran is down to CJ Beathard running the show and we expect the backup QB to stumble. Note that the 49ers are just 13-16 ATS in their last 29 as an underdog, while the Packers are still 14-9 ATS in their last 23 as a favorite (and 10-5 ATS in their last 15 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range). Lay the points with confidence, play on GREEN BAY.

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This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between the Bucs/Saints.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on common sense and strong O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Tampa has seen the total go UNDER the number in nine of its last 12 after two or more consecutive losses, while Atlanta has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last six after three or more consecutive SU losses. 

The bottom line: Tampa comes out of its bye week off two wins and desperate for a victory. The Bucs have been atrocious against the pass in the early going, but with a week off to prepare I’m expecting a marked improvement. It’s a huge game for both teams and we believe the pressure, along with all of the above posted situational and trend based factors do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy call in this one.

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This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on the Chicago Bears.

Chicago enters off a 48-10 home win over Tampa Bay, while Miami comes in off a 27-17 road victory over Cincinnati. The Bears are getting fantastic play on both sides of the ball and I look for the team to continue that progression, averaging 27.8 PPG and allowing only 16.2. Miami enters off a 27-17 road loss in Cincinnati, unable to hold on to an early 17-0 lead. The Fish average only 19.8 PPG and they allow 23.4. Note as well that the Dolphins are just 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 following an ATS loss, while Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after posting more than 350 total yards in the air in its previous game. All signs point to a rout, play on the BEARS.

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