This is a 10* on OVER

The big question this week is whether or not Patrick Mahomes is going to play. He left the Divisional Round win over Cleveland with a concussion. Mahomes was practicing again Friday after taking almost all the snaps in practice on Wednesday and Thursday. So it sure does look like he’s going to be the man under center for the Chiefs Sunday as they face the Buffalo Bills in a rematch from Week 6 of the regular season. Kansas City won in Buffalo, 26-17, in what was a hastily rescheduled game played on a Monday night. Since that time, the Bills have been beaten just once in 12 games and that came on the “Hail Murray” vs. Arizona. With or without Mahomes in there (we expect him to play), expect this game to be higher scoring than the one from the regular season. The Bills are averaging 30.3 points/game this year while the Chiefs are at 29.1. Last week was not indicative of what we’re used to seeing from either offense. KC ran for a season-best 245 yards against Buffalo the first time. Meanwhile, Buffalo is as pass happy as it gets.The Chiefs defense is the worst in the league in the red zone, so expect the Bills to score touchdowns, not field goals, when they get there. The Over is 12-5-1 in Bills games this season, one of the higher percentages in the league. Play on OVER

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This is a 7* on GREEN BAY

We’ve backed Green Bay pretty religiously this season, including playing them in one form or another each of the last three games. They’ve won all three games by at least 14 points, so we’re doing well. Therefore, we can’t deviate from the script here in the NFC Championship vs. Tampa Bay. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense rightly get all the headlines for averaging 33.2 points during a seven-game win streak. But don’t discount a defense that has held five of its last six opponents to 18 points or less. The Pack’s only loss in the L10 games was at Indianapolis where they held a 2 TD lead at halftime. Now they look to avenge one of their other two regular season defeats, and it was the worst one, 38-10 at Tampa Bay. That loss came after a bye and Rodgers threw two interceptions, which is something that almost never happens. One of them was returned for a touchdown and the other set the Bucs up at the 2-yard line for another easy score. This time the game is in Lambeau where GB has outscored teams by 12.4 points/game this year. Remember that the Packers just put up 32 points last week on a Rams defense that was considered to be the best in the league. They’ve had one more day of rest than has Tampa Bay, whose win over New Orleans should be credited to a +4 turnover differential. Rodgers takes better care of the football this time and goes on to his second Super Bowl.

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This is an 8* on NEW ORLEANS 

The old adage “it’s hard to be the same team three times in one season” is kind of a lie. Teams that swept the regular season games have gone 14-8 straight up in the playoff meeting. That’s the situation New Orleans is in here. They beat Tampa Bay 34-23 in Week 1 and then 38-3 in Week 9. They are playing this game at home where they just easily defeated Chicago in the Wild Card Round, 21-9. The only touchdown given up by the Saints defense came with no time left on the clock. The last three weeks have seen them allow just 212 rush yards total. They are giving up just 306.8 yards per game this year. The last two games, the Saints have allowed only 16 points. This defense always does a good job of containing Tampa Bay’s best receiver Mike Evans. Though it wasn’t a banner game for the offense against the Bears, they are now fully healthy on that side of the ball and should be better this week. Don’t see the Saints losing at home. They have covered the last four times as home favorites. In games against teams with winning records, the Buccaneers have lost four of five. Play on NEW ORLEANS 

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This is a 10* on OVER

The Browns were fortunate to jump out to a 28-0 lead on the Steelers last week and held on for a 48-37 win. Pittsburgh turning the ball over five times played a key role in how the game started and obviously the final result. It is unlikely Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City will be so generous. After watching the Browns defense give up over 500 yards passing last week, Mahomes has to be licking his chops. Cleveland’s pass defense has been very bad all year against the deep ball, on third downs and at stopping tight ends. The Chiefs offense is prolific in all those areas. The Browns allowed Mason Rudolph to throw for over 300 yards, for crying out loud! Bottom line is what you should expect here is a lot of points by KC, who is off a bye and rested most starters in Week 17. But the thing is Cleveland will score too. They’ve now had three 40+ point games in the last six weeks! With Chubb and Hunt, they have the best rushing attack in the league. The Chiefs’ defense is 31st (2nd worst) against the run. Also, the Chiefs defense has been very bad in the red zone, giving up a TD on 77% of all trips. That was the highest percentage in the league. The Browns offense scores a TD on 74% of its red zone opportunities, which is third best. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on OVER

Snow is a possibility Saturday night in Buffalo, but as we’ve seen countless times before, the public often overreacts to that when it comes to betting the total. Both the Ravens and Bills can score in bunches and we don’t think the “white stuff” is going to be able to stop either team. Baltimore averages 28.7 points/game on the year. They only scored 20 last week, but had averaged 37.2 the previous five games. Buffalo averages 31.1 points/game on the year. The Ravens defense did a great job last week containing Derrick Henry, but the Bills’ passing attack may prove more difficult to contain. Josh Allen was 4th in the league in completion percentage and has been exceptional against the blitz (which the Ravens like to do), throwing a league high 17 TD passes against it. But the Bills need to be concerned about their own defense, which just allowed 472 yards to the Colts last week. They gave up 163 rushing and 309 passing. Lamar Jackson is likely to have another big game this week after running for over 100 yards vs. the Titans. Bills games are 12-4-1 to the Over this season, which is the second highest Over percentage in the league. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on GREEN BAY

This is just a bad draw for the Rams as they head to the cold of Lambeau Field in Green Bay. While their top ranked defense was able to shut down Russell Wilson and the Seahawks last week, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have the advantage of coming off a bye. The truth is Seattle’s offense had been in decline for some time. Green Bay led the NFL in points scored with Rodgers having a MVP season. He’s 6-0 ATS in his career against the Rams. Los Angeles is really banged up - on both sides of the football. Aaron Donald will play, but is less than 100 percent and no offensive line succeeded more in both pass blocking and run blocking than the Packers. Them facing an injured Donald is a big break. So is the Rams QB situation from the perspective of the Green Bay defense. John Wolford has been ruled out, which means Jared Goff and his broken thumb gets the start. Goff was not particularly effective in last week’s Wild Card win and WR Cooper Kupp is questionable to play here. This will be the Rams’ 4th consecutive big game while the Packers are rested. Teams off an upset win in the Wild Card Round have gone just 25-35 ATS in the Divisional Round. Goff has never won a game in his career when the temperature was below freezing. Don’t forget the Rams lost to the Jets last month. The Packers are simply better. Play on GREEN BAY

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This is a 9* on PITTSBURGH

So the Browns, who could barely beat the Steelers at home with Mason Rudolph playing QB, now have to travel to Pittsburgh to face Big Ben and will do so without their head coach Kevin Stefanski (COVID list). That’s problematic. Cleveland was only 6-10 ATS in the regular season, the worst ATS record among the 14 playoff teams. That includes 0-6 ATS vs. division opponents. Baker Mayfield is just 9-14 ATS on the road in his career. Not only could the Browns barely beat Rudolph and some other Steelers backups last week, they lost 38-7 here in Pittsburgh. The Browns actually gave up more points than they scored in the regular season. They got here because of a 7-2 record in one-score games and beating plenty of bad teams. It can’t be understated how big of a disadvantage not having your head coach (who happens to double as the play caller) is. The Steelers’ defense is excellent at defending play action, which is when Mayfield is at his best. There will be Browns players out for this game as well including OL Bitoni and pass rusher Vernon. The facility was closed for much of the week. They’ve lost 17 in a row at Pittsburgh. Remember the Steelers were 11-0? Play on PITTSBURGH

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This is a 10* on OVER

So the Bears’ offense somewhat transformed down the stretch, really taking off once they settled back on Mitch Trubisky as the starting quarterback. While it was disappointing to see them score only 16 last week against the Packers, they’d previously gone over 30 points in four consecutive contests. We obviously know what the Saints’ offense is capable of doing. Since Drew Brees returned to the lineup, NO has scored 29, 52 and 33 points. That 52 came the last time Alvin Kamara played as he tied a record with six touchdowns. Scoring 33 without him last week was almost as impressive. Kamara has been activated for this Wild Card Game as has WR Thomas. So a slumping Bears defense is now set to face a Saints offense operating at full strength. But that Bears defense won’t be operating at full strength as their best player (LB Smith) has been downgraded to “out.” They are just going to have to hope the offense can continue its average from the L5 weeks, which was 31.2 points/game, tied (with the Saints) for sixth. The teams combined for 49 (with the game winning FG kicked in OT) in the regular season matchup. Five of Chicago’s last six games have gone over 50. Two of the Saints last three went over 60. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on WASHINGTON

No one thinks Washington belongs here, but that’s okay by us as we’re taking the points. The Football Team was really solid down the stretch, going 5-2 straight up and against the spread in their last seven games. Both losses were when Alex Smith did not start. While there will be much focus on what Smith can or can’t do in light of his injury, we are very bullish on what the Washington defense WILL do. They should get after Tom Brady and everyone knows that pressure is the way to limit Brady’s success. Seven straight Washington opponents have been held to 20 points or fewer. The Bucs may not have WR Mike Evans, who is a gametime decision. While everyone will call this a “mismatch,” big road favorites in the playoffs are rare and unprofitable. There have been only three instances of the road team laying more than six points since 1970. None of those three teams covered. They actually all lost outright! Since the 1982 strike, there have been only two 7-9 teams to make the playoffs (before Washington this year). Both won on Wild Card Weekend. Not saying the Football Team wins here, but they’ll definitely make it interesting. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is a 10* on SEATTLE

Division rivals Seattle and Los Angeles met twice during the regular season and the home team won both games. Both games were also low-scoring and stayed Under. The Rams won 23-16 the first time around with Seattle returning the favor 20-9 two weeks ago here at CenturyLink Field. The big story heading into this weekend’s rubber match centers around who will be playing quarterback for the Rams. Jared Goff recently underwent thumb surgery, causing him to miss the team’s final regular season game. While the Rams still won last week, that was against a flailing Cardinals team whose own QB was injured. Whether it’s Goff or John Wolford, the Rams have not scored an offensive touchdown in two weeks and they’ve scored only 71 points total the last four games. The Seahawks have Russell Wilson and while his second half numbers declined (after an amazing first half of the season), he is - by far- the better starting QB in this game. Don’t discount the improvement we’ve seen from the Seattle defense over the last eight games either. They have not given up more than 23 points to anybody in that stretch. Safety Jamal Adams, the reason for the improvement, has said he will play Saturday (his 1st playoff game). The Seahawks have won 11 straight playoff games when favored including all seven with Wilson. The Rams defense allows 10 points/game more on the road than they do at home. Play on SEATTLE

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This is an 8* on the OVER

The Bills haven’t won a playoff game in more than a quarter century, but this year’s team looks like the one that can break that streak. It’s the first time Buffalo has been favored in a playoff game since ‘96 and they come in having outscored their last six opponents by 119 points. They’ve averaged 38.2 points/game during the six-game win streak and just put up 56 last week when we told you to take the Over vs. Miami. (Went Over by themselves). For the Wild Card Round, the Bills draw an Indianapolis team that may not put quite as many points on the board, but the Colts have scored no fewer than 24 in any of the last eight games. This has all the makings of a shootout on Saturday as the Bills are an aggressive offense that likes to pass on first down while the Colts should have success running the ball with Jonathan Taylor, who just went over 250 yards rushing last week. Over the last four weeks, Indy allowed the third most passing yards in the league. The Over was 11-4-1 in Buffalo games during the regular season and that includes 3-1 when the total was 51 or higher. Take the OVER

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This is an 8* on ARIZONA 

This is one of the more important games on the Week 17 slate. Whomever wins is in the playoffs. If the Cardinals lose, they are out. If the Rams lose, they would need the Bears to lose (at home vs. GB) to get in. Unfortunately for Los Angeles, they don’t have Jared Goff as he was forced to undergo surgery on his injured thumb. That means John Wolford will be making his 1st career NFL start. It’s a rough spot to debut in and complicating matters is the fact COVID has taken out several other Rams. This is a great chance for Arizona to end a seven-game losing skid to LA. The sense of urgency is greater on the Cardinals’ sideline and while they’ve REALLY struggled to cover games down the stretch, this is really a tailor-made spot with all the Rams absences. Play on ARIZONA

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This is an 8* on CAROLINA

We liked Carolina plus the points here even before it was announced New Orleans would be without RB Alvin Kamara. Kamara is a big loss for a Saints team trying to earn home field advantage in the NFC. He tied a NFL record with SIX touchdowns on Christmas Day! But even with Kamara it was rather unlikely the Saints were going to get the top spot in the conference. They need not just a win, but the Packers to lose and the Seahawks to win. The Panthers have nothing to play for (in terms of playoffs), but should relish the “spoiler” role. They just won at Washington last week and the Football Team was fighting for its playoff life. Obviously, there is a big difference between the Football Team and the Saints. But don’t be surprised if New Orleans “folds their tent” early here if they learn Green Bay is winning in Chicago. Carolina is 8-1 ATS its last nine games as an underdog and QB Teddy Bridgewater is 22-5 ATS as an underdog in his career. Play on CAROLINA

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This is a 9* on GREEN BAY

Green Bay can earn the #1 seed (and home field advantage) with a win over Chicago in Week 17. The Bears need a win (or Cardinals loss) to get in the playoffs. We look for Aaron Rodgers to continue his mastery over the “Monsters of the Midway” and lead his team to the top seed in the NFC. The Packers were our Game of the Month last week as they destroyed Tennessee 40-14 on Sunday Night Football. It was their fifth consecutive win and they are now 12-3. No clue how the Bears have worked their way back into playoff contention. This is a team that lost six in a row at one point. They’ve been favored just three times all season, one of those being last week against Jacksonville. When these NFC North rivals met the first time, it was all Pack in a 41-25 win that wasn’t even that close (another SNF game). The Bears’ offense has seemingly come alive after that loss with four straight games where they scored 30 or more points. But they faced a slew of bad defenses (Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, Jacksonville). Who do you trust more? Rodgers or Mitch Trubisky? Rodgers is 18-7 ATS all-time vs. the Bears. Play on GREEN BAY

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This is an 8* on LAS VEGAS

This will be the first time the Raiders are favored in Denver since 1995. Nothing is on the line but pride in this Week 17 AFC West matchup as both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. Denver has known its fate for a while now, but Las Vegas was officially eliminated last week with a painful loss to Miami. It was their third straight setback, all of them at home, so maybe getting away from Sin City will be good for them. Unless something drastic changes here, the Broncos will go the entire season without being favored a single time. That right there should tell you what the oddsmakers think of Vic Fangio’s team. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in division games this year and have covered the last five times they’ve faced Denver. It was a 37-12 win in the first meeting of 2020. The Broncos have the worst turnover margin in the league and possibly the longest injury list. A win here would give Las Vegas a .500 season and allow them to get Over the projected season win total of 7.5. Derek Carr is still projected to start, but even Marcus Mariota is capable of beating the lowly Broncos. Play on LAS VEGAS

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This is a 10* on OVER

So here’s the situation with this Week 17 matchup from the AFC East. Buffalo can guarantee itself the #2 seed with a win. That would mean at least two home playoff games. The worst they can finish is #3, which would require them losing this game and Pittsburgh (who is playing backups) winning at Cleveland. Miami’s situation is more tenuous as they need to win here just to get into the playoffs. They are not necessarily eliminated with a loss, but that’s a situation they’d obviously like to avoid. Obviously, so much here depends on how long the Bills play their starters. Matt Barkley is the backup QB to Josh Allen. But quietly, the Dolphins have put up 26, 22 and 27 points the past three games. Tua Tagovailoa will have to start here as Ryan Fitzpatrick tested positive for COVID. The Dolphins have gone Over their last five times playing on turf. This was already a low total and continues to get lower. There has been only one Bills game all year where less than 43 total points were scored. Even with backups, we’ll get there. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on BUFFALO

The Bills are AFC East Champs for the 1st time since 1995. They will be either the #2 or #3 seed once the playoffs begin. The #2 seed gets to play the Wild Card with the worst record, so there still is something to play for here. Not to mention a season sweep of the Patriots, which the Bills haven’t done since 1999. New England has fallen hard in 2020 as Cam Newton simply could not fill the shoes of Tom Brady. Not many though he would, but 6-8 isn’t what you’d expect from the Patriots. Buffalo’s primetime woes are now a thing of the past as they’ve won three straight night games. Now it’s time to exorcise some more demons. Giving Bill Belichick his 1st losing season since his 1st year in Foxboro would be something. New England has scored just 15 points - total - the last two games and averages only 20.6 per game for the year. Buffalo put up 48 points last week in a laugher over Denver (we had the Bills) and is putting up 29.1 points/game. It’s now the Patriots that are just 1-4 ATS in primetime this year and they also haven’t covered a game (in four tries) when playing with extra rest. Buffalo has covered six in a row and QB Josh Allen is peaking at the right time. The Bills defense has allowed less than 20 points three of the past four weeks. Play on BUFFALO

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This is a 10* on GREEN BAY 

A win Sunday night could give the Packers the coveted #1 overall seed in the NFC. Remember that only one team - per conference - receives a first round bye starting with this year’s playoffs. The possibility of getting that top seed should have Green Bay plenty motivated for this one. Now they’ll know if they can clinch by kickoff. If the Rams beat Seattle, then the opportunity is there. But even if that result doesn’t happen, a win would keep them in the pole position heading into Week 17 when they’d only need to beat the Bears at home. The Packers haven’t had much trouble winning, taking six of the last seven games and four straight. They haven’t committed a single turnover during the 4-game win streak. When you take out some garbage time scoring from Detroit and Chicago, Green Bay’s defensive numbers from the last seven games look really good. In those seven games, only the Colts have scored more than 25 points against them. It would be no more than 20, if you take out the garbage time scoring. The Packers are 19-4 SU their last 23 home games. Play on GREEN BAY

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This is a 9* on SEATTLE

The Rams lost to the Jets last week. So it’s tough to imagine them winning in Seattle. One week later, we’re quite proud of last week’s call on the Jets. While we didn’t expect them to win straight up, we did highlight many of the Rams shortcomings, which all seemed to come to light in the most embarrassing loss of the season. Meanwhile, the Seahawks handled their business in a 20-15 win over Washington. The week before, they beat the Jets 40-3, which was here at home. Having already suffered their own embarrassing home defeat (three weeks ago vs. Giants), Seattle doesn’t dare let its guard down again. They are looking to avenge a 7-point loss in LA from last month. They didn’t have their top two running backs for that game. The defense is also now a whole heck of a lot better with Jamal Adams running wild. No opponent has scored more than 21 against them during the last five games. The last four have scored only 52 points total. A win here would give the Seahawks the NFC West title, something they dearly want. The Rams are just a .500 team this season (5-5) when you factor out four games vs. the NFC East. Play on SEATTLE

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This is a 7* on LA CHARGERS 

This game will determine who finishes in the basement of the AFC West. For much of the year, the Chargers have occupied that dubious spot. But after last week’s wild 30-27 win in Vegas, Los Angeles has moved into a tie with Denver. Both are 5-9 coming into this game. Five wins is actually an achievement for Denver as they have yet to be favored in a single game this season. Anyone who saw them last Saturday vs. Buffalo knows this is not a good team. The 48-19 loss tells us the effort just isn’t there any longer. You may be thinking that the Chargers have no reason to try either, but they’ve got revenge for an unforgivable loss earlier in the season. In Denver, they led by 21 points only to end up losing 31-30. Anthony Lynn is very much coaching for his job right now. These teams may have the same record. But the Broncos have been outscored by 119 points while the Chargers have “only” been outscored by 62 points. The Chargers are the better team and we like them to win. Play on LA CHARGERS

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This is an 8* on BALTIMORE

Since Lamar Jackson returned to the lineup, the Ravens are averaging more than 40 points/game. The Giants have scored a grand total of 30 points over that same time frame. So expect this rematch of Super Bowl 35 to quickly deteriorate into a blowout. That the Giants are still vying to be the winner of the horrible NFC East carries little water for us. Baltimore is also trying to lock down a playoff spot and likely needs to win out to get it. So expect them to take no mercy in this home game. They are 34-0 SU all-time as a double digit favorite. So it’s just a matter of covering the spread. Considering the offensive numbers of the Giants (31st overall in yardage), who may be starting Colt McCoy, winning ATS should not be difficult. (By the way, we don’t consider Daniel Jones much of an upgrade from McCoy, so the play still stands if Jones does end up starting). Jackson has accounted for more touchdowns in the past three games than Giants’ QBs have accounted for all season! The Ravens are 23-8 SU in December home games under Harbaugh and 11-1 SU this month in games started by Jackson. This should be a two touchdown spread. Play on BALTIMORE

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This is an 8* on the UNDER

All of a sudden, Chicago has a shot at the playoffs. This after being “left for dead” when a 6-game losing streak had them at 5-7. But back to back wins have turned things around in a dramatic way. They still need to win out and have Arizona lose once. Winning this week should not prove difficult as they are facing Jacksonville, losers of 13 in a row. The Jaguars’ offensive numbers are just terrible. They average only 17.0 points/game at home. So whether it's Gardner Minshew or Mike Glennon starting at quarterback (looking like Glennon) is of little concern. Remember Jacksonville shouldn't want to win as they are line to get the #1 pick. But we wouldn’t dare lay this many points with a Bears team that is just 3-10 ATS its last 13 games as a favorite. While the situation may seem conducive for a big offensive game from Chicago, a 4th straight game from them with 30 or more points would be somewhat unprecedented. You’d have to go back to 1965 to find the last time a Bears team did that. Let’s be careful about anointing Mitchell Trubisky as anything special. The Bears are not a team that can send the game Over themselves, so let’s play Under as the Bears DEFENSE should be the stars Sunday. Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on ARIZONA

When Arizona “upset” San Francisco 24-20 in Week 1 (were 7 point underdogs!), it really set the respective paths these teams have taken in 2020. The Cardinals are one of the NFL’s most improved teams, winning 8 games already after a 5-11 campaign in 2019. The 49ers were in the Super Bowl last year, but won’t be back there this February as they’ve fallen to 5-9 SU coming into this Saturday contest. Arizona has had San Francisco’s numbers the last several seasons, winning 9 of the last 11 matchups and covering the spread in the past six. We expect those trends to continue Saturday. CJ Beathard is now the starting QB for the Niners, their third different starting QB of 2020. It’s been that kind of season for them. The Niners haven’t done a good job of protecting their other two QBs and Beathard figures to be under siege by an Arizona defense that has averaged seven sacks each of its last two games. The Cardinals have scored 59 points the last two games - both wins - as they make a playoff push. The 49ers have lost three in a row and six of seven. They are toast with a third string QB. Play on ARIZONA

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This is a 10* on UNDER

When Tampa Bay went out and signed Tom Brady, making the playoffs became not just a goal, but an expectation. With a win Saturday in Detroit, the 9-5 Buccaneers can officially realize that expectation and start concentrating on a Super Bowl. The 5-9 Lions don’t figure to offer much resistance, especially with interim head coach Darrell Bevell and defensive coordinator Cory Undlin set to miss the game because of COVID. Since Bevell also serves as the offensive coordinator, look for the Lions offense to struggle. QB Stafford has injured ribs and QB coach Sean Ryan will be calling plays, something he’s never done in a NFL game. Expect the Lions, who don’t have much success running the ball to begin with, to have virtually zero success doing so in this game. The Bucs have the best run defense in the league, yielding only 78 yards per game. On the offensive side of the ball, slow starts have been a problem all year for TB. The Lions are 11-5 Under L16 December games. Play on UNDER

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This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

Drew Brees returned to the starting lineup last week, but that wasn’t enough to prevent the Saints from losing a second straight game by exactly a three-point margin. It would be unwise to start writing off the Saints, however. Not only is Brees back, but the last time they lost two in a row (Weeks 2 & 3), they responded with a 10-game win streak. They also aren’t facing the Chiefs this week. Instead, it’s Minnesota, who just lost at home to Chicago. The Vikings have also lost two in a row and even worse they’ve failed to cover five straight games. New Orleans is looking to clinch the division with a win and we really like their chances playing at home on Christmas Day. The Saints have feasted on losing teams, going 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS their L15 such games, including 6-1 and 5-2 in 2020. It was just two weeks ago we were all speaking of their defense as being the best in the league. That unit should get back on track this week. Can’t say the same for Minnesota’s defense, which is giving up 27.7 points per game and 6.0 yards per play. The Vikings have just one win against a team with a winning record all year. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on UNDER

Neither the Steelers nor the Bengals have done much scoring lately. Pittsburgh, who was 11-0 but now is 11-2, has not scored more than 19 points in any of its last three games. While a matchup with 2-10-1 Cincinnati certainly seems like a recipe for success, the Steelers simply won’t have to score many points to come out ahead in this one. That’s because their defense - still one of the league’s best - figures to have one of easiest “days at the office” on Monday. The Bengals are starting Ryan Finley at QB tonight. He’s even worse than Bradon Allen, who quite frankly wasn’t very effective himself in filling in for the injured Joe Burrow. In the last five games, Cincinnati has scored just 50 points total, never more than 17 in any one game. How do you think they are going to perform with a third string QB going against the league’s #1 scoring defense? Pittsburgh won’t put up 30 in this game, simply because they “don’t have to.” Play on UNDER

This is an 8* on OVER

The Browns played a thriller Monday night, ultimately coming up short against Baltimore by a score of 47-42. It probably won’t be that high scoring again Sunday night, but we still like the Over vs. the Giants. The Browns have scored 83 points themselves the last two games, despite facing two probable playoff teams. So the fact the Giants have gone Under in four straight against winning teams and their last four overall doesn’t mean much to us, even if backup Colt McCoy is forced into a starting role again. Freddie Kitchens, the Browns former head coach, will be calling plays here for the G-Men. That’s interesting. He should know the opponent well. The Browns defense has given up 82 points the last two games. The Giants defense will be playing without its best cornerback, James Bradberry. The Browns are 4-0 Over the last four times they’ve been a road favorite. The Giants are on a 7-3 Over run after scoring 15 points or less their previous game. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on KANSAS CITY

Kansas City is the first team since the ‘86 Patriots to win five consecutive one score games while going 0-5 ATS. But this is the rare occasion where they are laying a short number. It comes in New Orleans against a Saints team that is off a shocking loss to the Eagles last week. Despite the 5-game ATS losing streak, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is still 19-11 ATS since the start of last season, the best cover percentage in the league during that time. He’s 30-18-1 ATS in his career (including playoffs). The Chiefs are also 41-21-1 ATS on the road since 2013. What we are saying is that you can lay the points with the confidence, even if Drew Brees returns for New Orleans. Kansas City has just one loss and should be regarded as the best team in the league right now. Can’t see them failing to cover for a sixth straight time. If not for an uncharacteristic four turnovers, they would have covered easily last week against Miami. The Chiefs are just better than the Saints right now. Play on KANSAS CITY

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This is an 8* on NY JETS

The Jets are very bad, but this is also a ton of points. It’s one of the highest spreads for any game this season. The Rams did just win by 21 here at home last week. But that was also their largest MOV this season. They’ve got only three wins this year by more than two touchdowns and, oddly enough, the other two were both on the road and early in the season. The Jets had been a lot more competitive before running into the Seahawks last week. Three of their previous four losses were by six points or fewer. As long as they are winless, they should stay motivated. No team of professionals wants to go winless for an entire regular season. This is the most points the Rams have been favored by in a game since the “Greatest Show on Turf” team of 2001. It won’t be pretty but the Jets will stay within three scores. Play on NY JETS

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This is a 10* on ARIZONA

Arizona got back on track last week with a 26-7 win against the Giants, our Game of the Week. For the second week in a row, the Cardinals are our top play. They host the Eagles this time. While Philadelphia pulled out a shocking 24-21 win against New Orleans, they still shouldn’t be taken very seriously with a rookie QB (Jalen Hurts). Arizona badly needs this game to improve its playoff chances. Philadelphia is just 1-5 ATS on the road this season. While all those games were with Carson Wentz at QB, we’re not buying Hurts as a big difference maker. The Eagles have not covered back to back games all year. The Arizona defense played really well last week and had eight sacks. Philadelphia has had 12 different starting offensive line combinations in the first 13 games, so good luck pass protecting in this one. We don’t see them having the same success running the ball that they did last week. The Eagles defense has really struggled against mobile QBs this year and Arizona’s Kyler Murray has rushed for 712 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Play on ARIZONA

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This is a 9* on INDIANAPOLIS

These teams met just two weeks ago with the Colts winning 26-20 in Houston. The game was decided when the Texans fumbled inside the 10-yard line in the closing minutes. While Indianapolis very much could have lost that first meeting, we like them to win the rematch - big - at home. They come into Week 15 tied with Tennessee for the AFC South lead. A win here and their playoff chances improve exponentially. Houston is 4-9 and has no shot of making the playoffs. An ugly 36-7 loss in Chicago last week indicates the Texans have pretty much “packed it in.” DeShaun Watson has been sacked 11 times the last two weeks, five of those coming against the Colts. Indianapolis is a team that is heavily respected by the oddsmakers. They’ve been an underdog only once all season. They are 8-2 ATS their past 10 games as a favorite. They’ve got a top ten offense and defense. The Texans are 6-14-1 ATS in December or later going back to 2016. They are also 1-6 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season. The Colts have covered seven of their last eight games vs. the Texans and that trend should continue here in what shapes up as a real mismatch Sunday. Houston is 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS as an underdog this year. Play on INDIANAPOLIS

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This is an 8* on SEATTLE

This is a big mismatch now that Dwayne Haskins has to start for Washington. There really is no debate that the Football Team got much better once Haskins was benched for Alex Smith. Now Smith is hurt at a most inopportune time. Haskins has to face one of the better teams in the league, one that just put up 40 points last week. There is no chance Washington is able to trade points in this one. The offense gained less than 200 total yards in last week’s 23-15 win against San Francisco. The Football Team is now vying to become the first team since Tampa Bay in 2016 to win four straight games, all as an underdog. Seems unlikely. The Seahawks defense has gotten much better since Jamal Adams came back. They’ve allowed 17 points or less three straight weeks. Play on SEATTLE

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This is an 8* on SAN FRANCISCO

We like this price quite a bit on a 49ers team that is better than its record. They might be only 1-4 the last five games, but all four losses were to division leaders. They did beat a very good Rams team, on the road, 23-20. Dallas is not a good team. In fact, the Cowboys have a -102 point differential, a NFC worst. A 30-7 win last week over a Bengals team with a backup quarterback (Brandon Allen) didn’t alter our view of the ‘Boys at all. The previous two games saw them lose by a combined 42 points to Baltimore and Washington. Even after a decent effort last week, the Cowboys defense is still allowing 5.1 yards per rush, worst in football. So look for San Fran to run the ball effectively in this one. The 49ers are 12-3 ATS in games with a spread of five points or less going back to the beginning of last season. They’ve also covered three in a row as road favorites. No team has been worse at the betting window this year than Dallas, who is 3-10 ATS. Play on SAN FRANCISCO

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This is a 10* on OVER

At 4-9, Carolina has no shot at making the playoffs. But we can count on them to score. In four of the last five games, the Panthers have scored at least 23 points. The problem is they have LOST all four of those games. The one win in that five-game stretch was 20-0 over Detroit. Good luck here shutting out Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay has been playing at an elite level of late, scoring 30 or more in four consecutive contests. That shouldn’t be a surprise though. Rodgers and the GB offense are averaging 31.5 points/game for the season. Packers’ games are averaging more than 55 points total, which easily exceeds the OU for this matchup. Other than that shutout of the Lions, which should be viewed as an anomaly, the Panthers defense has permitted 25 or more points in every game since 10/25. In the last four losses (and you figure they are going to lose this week), they have given up 33, 46, 28 and 32 points. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on BUFFALO

The Bills are definitely for real. That much we can say after they easily handled the Steelers Sunday. The 26-15 win improved Buffalo’s record to 10-3 and greatly increased their chances of winning the AFC East, something they have not done since Jim Kelly was their quarterback. Denver probably wishes Jim Kelly was their QB (more likely John Elway), but you get the picture. The Broncos simply are not on the Bills level. What really drives home the oddsmakers’ feeling towards Denver is the fact the Broncos are the only team in the league that hasn’t been favored in a single game all year. Give them credit for beating Carolina last week, 32-27, which improved their WL record to 5-8. But most of their wins have been against losing teams. Also, in six home games, the Broncos are averaging only 15.7 points/game. That simply will not cut it facing a Bills offense that has really hit its stride of late. Over the past five games, Buffalo is averaging 32.2 points/game. Their defense has allowed just 18.7 points/game the L3 weeks. Oh, by the way, Buffalo’s only loss in the last seven games came on a Hail Mary. Play on BUFFALO

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This is a 10* on LA CHARGERS

The Chargers finally won a close one on Sunday, beating the Falcons 20-17 as a one-point favorite. While they are only 4-9 on the year, LA has played much better than their record shows. They had a bad game two weeks ago vs. New England, but seven of their other eight losses have come in one score games. This Thursday night matchup vs. Las Vegas reminds us of how we handicapped the Monday night game between Baltimore and Cleveland. Our view of MNF was that despite the inferior won-loss record, the Ravens were the better team, an assertion backed up by various metrics. The same holds true here. Las Vegas may be 7-6, but they’ve actually been outscored by 41 points. Losers of three of their last four, the Raiders are clearly heading in the wrong direction down the home stretch. The only win in those last four games was a miracle against the winless Jets. The fact the Raiders have been favored only four times prior to this game shows that they’ve overachieved. The defense has been torched for 150 points in those last four games. Chargers QB Justin Herbert should have a big night here. Los Angeles is 8-4 ATS its last 12 Thursday games. Play on LOS ANGELES

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This is a 10* on BALTIMORE

Cleveland is 9-3. Baltimore is 7-5. But make no mistake about it. Baltimore is better. The Ravens have outscored their 12 opponents by 85 points this season, tied for the 5th best differential in the league. The Browns have been OUTSCORED in their 12 games, despite their record and a 4-game win streak. When these AFC North rivals met back in Week 1, Baltimore won handily 38-6. It’s probably also worth noting that Cleveland failed its other AFC North test, losing to Pittsburgh 38-7. So they haven’t really been able to “get it done” against the league’s elite. The keys for the Browns this season have been winning close (6-0 in one-score games) and beating bad teams. Three of the four teams they’ve beaten during this win streak were Houston, Philadelphia and Jacksonville, all of whom are sub-.500. Even when they jumped up big on Tennessee last week, they had to hold on for a 41-35 win. The Ravens looked like their old selves in a 34-17 win over Dallas on Tuesday, running for nearly 300 yards. They are now 6-0 ATS their L6 December games. The Browns are 1-10-1 ATS their past 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Ravens are 4-2 on the road this year, not to mention 14-6 ATS L20. Play on BALTIMORE

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This is a 9* on PITTSBURGH

This line appears to be a bit of an overreaction towards the events of last Monday when the Steelers suffered their first loss of the season and the Bills beat down the 49ers 34-24. Sure enough, the original line for this matchup had Pittsburgh favored by a few points on the road. Now it’s swung in the other direction and we see value on a team that has lost ONLY ONCE this season. We know Pittsburgh hasn’t really looked impressive its last couple games, but remember that both were moved due to Baltimore’s COVID drama. While Buffalo’s offense has looked very good recently, the Steelers’ defense remains one of the best in the league as it is permitting just 17.6 points per game. While Pittsburgh did blow a 14-0 lead against Washington last week, that was more on the offense, which could not score a TD despite five chances from the 1-yard line. If they score there, the Steelers are still undefeated. There were two drives that ended with the Pittsburgh offense turning it over on downs inside the Washington 30-yard line. Mike Tomlin is 17-5 ATS as a road underdog facing a team with a winning record. Play on PITTSBURGH

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This is an 8* on the UNDER

The Saints have gone Under in their last five games. The Eagles have gone Under in their last six games. The total for this game being so low should not be a surprise then, especially because Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts will be making his first NFL start against a defense that has given up a total of just 44 points in its last five games. That New Orleans defense is 1st in the league in yards allowed, 2nd against the run, 4th against the pass and 4th in scoring. They also have the 3rd most sacks while forcing the 7th most turnovers. The Eagles have not scored more than 17 points in any of the last four games and stand little chance of doing so here. Over those last five games, the Saints’ D has allowed just two touchdowns and one was in garbage time last week vs. Atlanta. Remember that Taysom Hill is still the Saints starting QB, so they won’t be putting up a lot of points either. They can simply rely on the run game in what should be an easy victory that won’t require many points. Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on OVER

Indianapolis should put up a lot of points here against a Raiders defense that has allowed 35, 43 and 28 points the last three weeks. While the 28 points allowed last week were the fewest of the three games, Las Vegas was facing the winless Jets and nearly lost that game. The Colts have scored at least 26 points in four straight games and Baltimore is the only team to hold them below that number in the last seven games. The good news for Las Vegas is they’ve scored 31 or more in four of their last five games. So this should turn into a shootout Sunday in Sin City. The Colts defense had been really strong in the early part of the season, but injuries have started to take their toll. The last three games have seen them allow an average of 32 points. The Over is 9-3 in Raiders’ games this season, the second highest such percentage in the league. So high-scoring games are nothing new to them. Same with the Colts, who are 6-2 Over their last eight games. Both teams could easily go for 30+ here. The Raiders are on a 6-0-1 Over run as home dogs. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on ARIZONA

If not for the “Hail Murray” vs. Buffalo, Arizona would be on a five-game losing streak entering this week. They are 0-5 ATS those L5 games. It’s been a real “fall from grace” for a team that started the year 5-2. The Giants, now 5-7 on the season, are trending in the other direction. They’ve won four in a row with their defense holding all four opponents to 20 points or less. But despite the recent form of these two teams, we’re backing the Cardinals on Sunday. Colt McCoy may have to start again for the G-Men. While that shockingly worked out in Seattle last week, we don’t see that kind of success sustaining itself. If he does come back, Daniel Jones isn’t that great either. The Giants’ offense has only scored 36 points the last two games. Give them credit for that win up in Seattle, but before that it was a really favorable stretch of games. They were off a bye when they faced Cincinnati without Joe Burrow, but won that game by only two points. Arizona is still the better team here and we’ll lay the short number. The Giants’ special teams have given up a punt return and a safety the last two weeks. New York has had success as a dog this season, but is still just 3-12 ATS as a home dog the past three seasons. Play on ARIZONA

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This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY

Good situation this week for Tampa Bay to pick up a win. For starters, they are coming off a bye. Getting their bye so late in the season may prove advantageous for the stretch run. Perhaps they were running on fumes when they lost to the Rams and Chiefs by identical 27-24 scores in their last two games. Maybe it was a case of facing two really good teams. Whatever the reason, we don’t see the Bucs losing three in a row at home. While they’ve struggled against top teams in the league like the Saints, Rams and Chiefs, Tampa Bay has done well against everyone else. Minnesota is on a 5-1 surge, but their last four wins have been against Detroit, Chicago, Carolina and Jacksonville and most of those games were close. Remember they lost at home to Dallas. The most impressive win, over Green Bay, came after a bye. Tough matchup for Vikings RB Dalvin Cook this week as he faces the league’s top ranked run defense, which is allowing just 74 yards per game. Tom Brady is an incredible 46-19 ATS after a SU loss including 4-0 with the Bucs. The Vikings young secondary is likely to struggle against the Tampa receivers. Play on TAMPA BAY

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This is a 10* on LA RAMS

As we learned (the hard way) on Sunday, this Rams team is pretty good. They went into Arizona and beat the Cardinals 38-28. But really it wasn’t even that close as the Rams put up 463 total yards while allowing just 232. In terms of outgaining opponents on a per play basis, Los Angeles is one of the best teams in the league. They are now 8-4, tied with Seattle atop the NFC West standings. We like them to handle their business here against the Patriots. The Rams’ defense has allowed an average of just 15.0 points in five home games. No team has been stingier at home this season. While New England is off a 45-0 win against the Chargers, that point total was greatly aided by two special teams touchdowns. The Patriots offense is averaging only 235 yards the last two weeks despite winning both games. You may remember that the Rams beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl back in 2002. Well, they have not beaten them since, losing five straight times! That streak is put to bed here as the home team shows off its superiority Thursday night. Play on LA RAMS

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This is a 10* on OVER

Lamar Jackson is off the COVID-19 list, which means we can just assume he’s going to start tonight for the Ravens. That’s bad news for a Cowboys defense that’s already giving up 32.6 points/game, which is the most in the league this season. Particularly concerning for the Cowboys is a run defense which is last in the league, allowing 156.4 yards per game. Baltimore will get both Mark Ingram and JK Dobbins back this week after both missed last week’s loss in Pittsburgh. As a team, the Ravens have run for 100+ yards in 34 consecutive games. So they’re going to move the ball in this game. Last time we saw Dallas they allowed 41 against Washington on Thanksgiving Day. That horrid effort dropped them to 3-8 on the year. With Andy Dalton as the starting QB, you may not be expecting much from the Cowboys offense tonight. But they did put up 31 on the Vikings two weeks ago. Scoring only 16 against an excellent Washington defense (did you see last night?) should not be viewed as a big deal. The Ravens defense has given up at least 28 points in three of their last six games. The Over is 4-1 the last five times Baltimore has been off a loss. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on OVER

Because of Covid, the 49ers have lost their home field advantage. This game is being played in Arizona (Cardinals stadium) as will next week’s “home game” vs. Washington. That’s a pretty significant disadvantage for the stretch run, although the Niners did just go on the road and beat a very good Rams team last week. Buffalo has already played once here in Arizona and that’s a game they’d like to forget as they lost on the infamous “Hail Murray.” If you recall, that was a high scoring game (32-30) as are most Bills games with the average number of total points scored being 52.8. That’s noticeably higher than the total set for tonight. The 49ers average 27.2 points/game at home, which is up from what they are averaging on the road. A key for them last week was that WR Deebo Samuel, who leads the league in yards after catch, returned to the lineup. The Over is 7-3-1 for the Bills this season including 7-0-1 when they are off a win. (They put up 27 in beating the Chargers last Sunday). Play on OVER

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Ths is a 9* on KC

Kansas City has won three straight close games. They beat Carolina by 2, Las Vegas by 4 and Tampa Bay by 3. But really the only game they were in danger of losing was the one in Vegas. They never trailed in Tampa last week and failed to cover only because of a garbage time TD. We see the Chiefs having no problems beating a TERRIBLE Denver team this week. The Broncos infamously had “no QB” last week vs. the Saints and that went as well you’d expect. They lost 31-3 at home. Just to illustrate how far apart these two AFC West sides are - Kansas City has been favored in 10 of 11 games this year while Denver has been an underdog in all 11. The Chiefs have also beaten the Broncos 10 straight times including 43-16 earlier in the year. That was the third straight win by at least 20 in this division rivalry. KC is 8-1-1 ATS in those 10 meetings. It really doesn’t matter who plays QB for Denver this week, they simply are incapable of scoring enough to stay within the spread against the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes vs. Drew Lock is a major mismatch in favor of the home team. Play on KANSAS CITY

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This is an 8* on ARIZONA

Arizona is 6-5. But if not for a Hail Mary against Buffalo three weeks ago, they’d be below .500 and on a four-game losing streak entering this week. The Cardinals have struggled when favored this season, going just 2-5 ATS as chalk. So we were quite pleased at the early line movement for this NFC West showdown with the Rams. This is the first of two meetings between these teams. The Rams are 7-4, but they too suffered an upset loss last week - 23-20 to San Francisco. The Rams defense hasn’t been as good on the road (23.3 PPG allowed vs. 15.0 at home), which is good news for Kyler Murray and the Arizona offense. Back to the spread, the Cardinals are 12-6-1 ATS as an underdog for coach Kingsbury. We look for Arizona to snap its four-game ATS losing streak this week and probably its six-game (straight up) losing streak to the Rams. We don’t think that LA should be favored in this game. Play on ARIZONA

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This is a 10* on OVER

Even with Kyler Murray nursing a shoulder injury, we think there’s going to be plenty of offense in this game -- from both sides. The good news for Murray and the Cardinals is that this game is at home. The Rams defense just hasn’t been as good on the road as it's been at home. They give up 23.3 points/game on the road compared to just 15.0 in Los Angeles. Arizona is one of the best rushing teams as they lead the league in yards per attempt and are 4th overall in rushing yards. They and the Rams both run up-tempo offense, which is conducive to the game going Over. All five times that Arizona has covered as a home dog for Kingsbury, the game has gone Over. (We like the Cardinals to cover this week). The Rams may have the highest Under percentage in the league this season (tied with Chicago at 8-2) but something to keep in mind is the Under is 5-0 when they’re at home. Again, this game is being played in Arizona, not LA. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on TENNESSEE

Cleveland is an exceptionally weak 8-3 team. Let’s start with the fact they’ve given up more points than they’ve scored. Not even 4-7 Atlanta can say that! What the Browns have been doing is winning the games “they should” (i.e. when favored) and usually close. They are 7-1 SU as favorites in 2020. However their last four wins, which were against Jacksonville, Houston, Philadelphia and Cincinnati (all teams with losing records) have come by a combined 13 points (none by more than five points). The Browns are not favored this week against a fellow 8-3 team in Tennessee. They lost by 32 at Baltimore and 31 at Pittsburgh. That’s something that jumps out to us, as the Titans played both teams tough, even defeating the Ravens (with Lamar Jackson) on the road. The Titans looked GREAT last week in putting up 45 points on a short-handed Colts defense. Ryan Tannehill has proven himself to be a very good NFL QB (certainly better than Baker Mayfield) and a key to his success is not turning the ball over. Tennessee has the fewest number of giveaways in the league right now. They’ll win comfortably on Sunday. Play on TENNESSEE

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This is an 8* on CINCINNATI

Cincinnati’s straight up record is just 2-8-1. But this is a team that competes. They are 7-4 ATS with two of the non-covers coming vs. league heavyweights Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Just look at what they did last week. Playing for the first time without Joe Burrow (OFY), they were able to stay within the 6.5-point spread against the Giants, losing only 19-17. Now it took a special teams touchdown to do that, but give credit to a defense that has allowed 20 points or fewer in three of its last four games. We laid the points with Miami last week but did so against a completely inept (and winless) Jets team. This week’s spread is higher and we just don’t see the Dolphins as a team you’d want to lay double digits with. It’s only the fifth time Miami has been favored all season. Other than against the Jets, they have not had to lay more than four to any opponent. This is the first game where they’ve had to lay 10 or more in over a decade! We don’t know who the starting QB will be for the Dolphins, but will take the points anyway in what figures to be another close loss for Cincinnati. Play on CINCINNATI

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THIS IS AN 8* ON BALTIMORE

All hell has broken loose in Baltimore as the Ravens' COVID-19 outbreak began on Monday. All told, 12 players have been affected. The most notable being QB Lamar Jackson. This game has been moved twice, from Thursday to Sunday and then Sunday to Tuesday. This seemingly could not have come at a worse time for the Ravens as the team has dropped three of its last four games including back to back losses for the first time since early last season. Now they face the 10-0 Steelers who won 28-24 in Baltimore earlier this month. But we’re looking at this as a “buy low” situation on the Ravens. They led a good Tennessee team 21-10 in the third quarter last week before losing in overtime. The Ravens are 4-0 ATS the last four times they’ve been an underdog. The underdog is 19-7-3 ATS the past 29 meetings between Baltimore and Pittsburgh and the road team has covered six of the last eight. This is the first time in a long while that the public seems “down” on the Ravens. An interesting tidbit on the Steelers is that only three teams have punted more times: the Jets, Bears & Eagles. So it’s been a real “boom or bust” for Big Ben and that group. Other than the 4-point win over Baltimore and a 3-point win over Tennessee, Pittsburgh has faced only one other team with a winning record (Cleveland). They struggled to beat Dallas a couple weeks ago. Remember that all this has been just as disruptive to them. Take the points. Play on BALTIMORE

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This is a 10* on SEATTLE

The Seahawks and Eagles are very much “birds of a different feather” as the former comes with a 7-3 mark on the season while the latter is 3-6-1. But true to the insanity that is 2020, both could end up being division champs when all is said and done! That said, Seattle is so much better and should easily be able to take advantage of a wounded (and struggling) Philly team tonight. The Eagles just found out they’ll be without Lane Johnson for the rest of the year, which is a major loss. It’s not as if they were playing all that well with their top offensive lineman on the field anyway. This is an offense that struggles to score and Wentz seems to have really regressed. Completion percentage and passer rating are both career lows right now while he leads the league with 18 turnovers. Seattle’s defense, which had been a sore spot for them, has recently improved thanks to the return of Jamal Adams and the arrival of Carlos Dunlap. They just held the Rams and Cardinals to a combined 44 points. One group having no problems is the Seattle offense, which averages 31.8 points/game. Not only is Russell Wilson 5-0 all-time vs. Philly, the Seahawks have covered every game. Wilson is 23-12-1 ATS in his career in primetime games. Play on SEATTLE

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This is an 8* on GREEN BAY 

The Bears are one of several NFL teams this week really hurting at the QB position. Truth be told, it hasn’t mattered all season who they’ve had under center. Both Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky have really stunk up the joint. Now Foles is hurt so Trubisky is being called back into duty this week. Trubisky has had his own injury issues as well. Really, it’s a minor miracle that Chicago is 5-5 entering this game. They have lost four straight while averaging less than 16 points/game. In case you needed to be reminded, Green Bay does not have any issues at quarterback. Aaron Rodgers, who has a 16-2 TD-INT ratio the last five weeks, has dominated the Bears throughout his career. He’s 19-5 against them. With the Packers 5-0 ATS off a loss under Matt LaFleur, expect them to get off to a fast start Sunday night. Play on GREEN BAY 

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Note: This play was released and written up prior to the announcement on Denver's QB situation. Play still stands. 

This is a 10* on NO

Taysom Hill is 1-0 as a starter after leading the Saints to a 24-9 victory over Atlanta last week. The offense gained 378 total yards, which is right on the team’s season average with Drew Brees at quarterback. Now the Falcons defense is pretty bad. But the Saints defense is REALLY good. The last three games they’ve allowed just 25 points. We don’t see them giving up very many this week against a Denver offense that is averaging just 18.2 points/game at home. The Broncos still have yet to be favored in a game all year. Obviously they’re not going to be favored here, even though they are off a 20-13 upset over Miami last week. But the Saints aren’t the Dolphins. When Denver hosted Kansas City earlier in the year, they lost 43-16. That’s what we’re looking at here. Hill showed us last week he can be winning quarterback in this league as he completed 78% of his passes. But the real strength of the Saints right now is the defense. By the way, lots of injuries on the Denver defense. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is an 8* on ARIZONA

Arizona is 6-4 but off a 28-21 loss to Seattle. New England is also off a 7-point loss, 27-20 to Houston, but they are just 4-6. It is looking more and more likely that we are about to have an NFL Playoffs that doesn’t include the Patriots for just the second time since 2003. The sense of urgency for the Cardinals here is going to be greater due to the fact they have a much more realistic path to the playoffs. A loss here would not be good. An early start doesn’t seem to bother the Cards as they are 5-2 ATS in 1 PM ET games since Kliff Kingsbury took over. A key advantage for them this week is they’ve had a couple extra days to prepare as they played on Thursday last week. New England has covered the spread in just two of its previous seven games. Against the Jets was the only time in that stretch where they topped 23 points. Arizona averages 28.7 points/game and had hit 30 in each of the five games before facing Seattle. The Patriots allow 6.2 yards/play (30th) and 8.4 yards per pass play (last). Cardinals QB Kyler Murray will have a field day here. Play on ARIZONA

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This is an 8* on the GIANTS

The Giants should consider themselves quite fortunate. They play in the NFC East where no team has more than four wins. Now they get to face Cincinnati a week after Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending knee injury. The Bengals just aren’t going to do much offensively in this game with Brandon Allen or Ryan Finley at QB (Allen expected to start). Cincinnati has scored just 19 points its last two games and didn’t score at all after Burrow left last week. That was against a Washington team that the Giants have beaten twice in 2020. While the G-Men are just 1-7 SU in their other eight games, they are 7-3 ATS overall including 5-0 on the road. They’ve been one of the best teams to bet on this NFL season. Coming off a bye and facing a wounded opponent, we expect them to play their finest game of the season here. You could argue they played their best game two weeks ago when they beat Philadelphia 27-17. More bad news for the Bengals: Not only is Burrow out, their top two running backs are injured as well! Play on NY GIANTS

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This is a 9* on the OVER

The Titans and Colts meet for a second time in three weeks. Last time, on a Thursday night in Nashville, the Colts. They shut Tennessee out in the second half, which is quite the achievement, and the game really turned on a blocked punt that was returned for a touchdown. While the Colts probably can’t count on scoring another special teams touchdown this week, they also probably can’t count on shutting the Titans out for a half. That has us on the Over. The good news for the Colts is that they have scored 31 or more in four of the last five games. Tennessee always scores a lot with Ryan Tannehill manning the offensive ship. The 17 points against the Colts were a season-low for the Titans. They average 27.9 points/game for the year. Then there’s this gem: Tannehill is 17-3 Over his last 20 starts including 8-2 this season. The Colts defensive line, which has been such a strength this season, is depleted due to COVID. So Derrick Henry should have a big game as he wears the defense down late (as per usual). Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on the UNDER

We also like the Under in this game. Go to the writeup on the side and see all the reasons we cited why we don’t think the Bengals will score much here. Cliff notes: Joe Burrow is out for the season and the two top running backs are injured. (Gio Bernard MAY play after suffering a concussion last week). The Bengals have scored a total of 19 points the last two weeks and didn’t score any after Burrow left the game last week. The Giants defense has been pretty good over the last month, never giving up more than 25 points. They’ve allowed 20 or less four of the last seven games and this is the weakest offense they’ll face all year. However, with the Giants scoring between 20 and 27 each of their last five games, we shouldn’t expect them to “go off” either. They’ve topped 23 in just two of the last seven games. This will be a low-scoring game and a blowout win for the Giants. Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on MIAMI

Miami’s run ended last week with a disappointing loss in Denver. Before suffering the 20-13 loss, they’d won and covered five in a row. While Tua Tagovailoa is questionable to start here (because of a thumb injury), Ryan Fitzpatrick has certainly proven himself to be a capable starter in this league. The team is 3-2 this year with Fitzpatrick as the starter and the two losses were to New England and Seattle. No matter who ends up playing QB for the Dolphins this week, we like them to win big. That’s because they are facing the winless Jets. At 0-10, it’s only a matter of time before Adam Gase gets fired. New York is a total dumpster fire right now. Sam Darnold is set to return, but that hardly matters at this point. The Dolphins shut the Jets out 24-0 earlier this year in the last game Fitzpatrick started. While the Jets have stayed within eight points of three of their last four opponents, they won’t do so here. Miami has a really good defense that will keep the Jets under its YTD scoring average of 14.9 points/game. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on OVER

Washington and Dallas played five weeks ago and the Football Team emerged victorious by a score of 25-3. That may have been the low point of the season for the Cowboys. Backup Andy Dalton left the game with a concussion, rendering the offense helpless. But Dalton was back last week and led the team to a surprising 31-28 upset of the Vikings. A good sign moving forward is that Ezekiel Elliott had his first 100+ yard rushing game of the season. Dallas definitely will score more their second time facing the Washington defense. But of course their own defense remains a problem. It is giving up 31.8 points/game and has surrendered no fewer than 23 for nine straight contests. Washington is off a 20-9 win over Cincinnati and has looked really good over the last six quarters with Alex Smith playing QB. However, there is one caveat we’ve got to mention in regards to last week. The defense got real lucky with Bengals rookie Joe Burrow getting hurt. In the first half, Washington's defense didn’t force a single punt. The Over is 8-2 in the L10 meetings between these teams and 5-0 here in Dallas. Even though this is a battle of 3-7 teams on Thanksgiving, first place in the NFC East is on the line. The game will belong to the two offenses. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on HOUSTON

Detroit was just putrid last week in a 20-0 loss to Carolina. The offense was held below 200 yards as it gained just 3.4 yards per play. They had only 10 first downs for the game! There has to be some real doubt about Matt Patricia’s future as the head coach. That’s going to have an effect on the team’s motivation down the stretch. The Lions are 13-28-1 SU since he took over. The Panthers team that shut them out on Sunday was without its starting QB Teddy Bridgewater and star RB Christian McCaffery. PJ Walker, making his first ever NFL start, threw for 258 yards against the Lions defense. Injuries and COVID-19 have left the Lions short-handed on both sides of the ball. So look for the Texans to take advantage in this early Thanksgiving Day battle. We cashed Houston in a 27-20 win over the Patriots on Sunday as they improved to 3-7 on the year. With the likes of Deshaun Watson and JJ Watt, the Texans certainly look more formidable than the Panthers team that just embarrassed the Lions. Watson threw for 344 yards against the Patriots, his 5th 300-plus yard game of the season, and has a 11-0 TD-INT ratio the last five weeks. The Lions’ pass defense, as we saw last week against a 1st time starter, is poor. They rank 25th in the league, giving up 258.4 yards/game. Watt and the Texans defense were solid last week in allowing just 86 yards rushing. The Lions are just 4-12 on Thanksgiving since 2004 with eight losses by 10 or more. They are also on a 1-4 SU/ATS run as home underdogs of three points or less. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 7* on TB 

We’ve got a big game in the NFC Monday night with the 7-3 Bucs hosting the 6-3 Rams. Both teams had impressive wins last week. Tampa Bay pummeled poor Carolina 46-23 and finished with a substantial 544-187 edge in total yardage. Just as impressive was the Rams defense which held Seattle to only 16 points. When handicapping this matchup, it’s important to remember that the Bucs are 7-1 against everybody besides the Saints. That other loss was by a single point at Chicago and they probably should have won that game. The Rams are 4-0 against the horrible NFC East and  2-3 vs.everyone else. As impressive as beating Seattle was, that was a familiar foe at home. The Rams are 4-0 at home, but just 2-3 on the road (sense a pattern?). Left tackle Andre Whitworth got hurt last week and is going to miss the last six weeks. That’s a big loss for the Rams. Their offense has scored 24 points or less four of the last five games. Tom Brady and the Bucs have scored 38 or more in four of their last seven. Though 0-3 ATS in primetime this season, this one sets up well for Tampa Bay. The Rams defense forced three turnovers vs. Seattle. Don’t see that happening again. Play on TAMPA BAY 

AAA

This is a 10* on KANSAS CITY

This is a big revenge game for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Back in Week 5 they lost to the Raiders 40-32. Going by the pointspread (KC was -10 in that game), that’s the biggest upset of the NFL season so far. Chiefs coach Andy Reid clearly hasn’t forgotten, going so far as to point out the fact the Raiders took a “victory lap” (in their team bus) around the stadium following the upset. Though it has won and covered three in a row, Las Vegas is not well positioned for this rematch as 10 of the 11 players currently on the reserve/COVID-19 list are from the defensive side of the ball. Mahomes should have a big night as the Raiders are already giving up nearly 28 points/game at home. Reid is 14-7 ATS in his coaching career coming out of a bye week and Mahomes is 11-5 ATS in division games. So it’s a good spot for the favorite that has already covered 22 of the last 32 times they’ve been asked to lay points on the road. The Raiders, despite their 6-3 SU record, have been outgained this season. Over the past 20 seasons, if a double digit division dog wins the first meeting of the season outright, they are just 5-9 ATS the second time around. The Chiefs have won six games by at least nine points so far and their average margin of victory is 11.5 points/game. Play on KANSAS CITY

AAA

This is an 8* on GREEN BAY

Like New England-Houston, this Green Bay-Indianapolis line also flipped. The Packers were favored on the look ahead line, but not anymore after they struggled to beat Jacksonville last week while the Colts beat the Titans 34-17. We’ll take advantage of the value we’re now getting with the Packers, who are 4-1 ATS on the road this season. That’s the second best cover percentage in the league. Under Matt LaFleur the Pack have gone 5-1 ATS as a regular season road underdog and all five covers were also outright wins. Green Bay is also the first team in NFL history to average more than 30 points through nine games while turning it over five or fewer times. They haven’t failed to cover back to back games all season either. Aaron Rodgers has averaged almost 300 yards passing his last four games indoors and won them all. Play on GREEN BAY

AAA

This is a 9* on UNDER

The Cowboys are having a season to forget as they are 2-7 straight up and 1-8 against the spread. For a while there, the Vikings seemed to be on a similar trajectory. But they have rallied for three consecutive wins and covers to get to 4-5 SU and 6-3 ATS. The most recent win came Monday night, 19-13 over the Bears. The next three weeks (including this one) have Minnesota playing at home and they figure to be a strong favorite in every game. But we would be wary of laying this many points with a team playing on a short week, especially considering Dallas is off its bye. The ‘Boys did show some life two weeks ago vs. Pittsburgh, but still scored only 19 points. That’s the most they’ve scored in the four games since Dak Prescott went down with an injury. All four of those games have gone Under. We don't think the return of Andy Dalton will matter much. We already mentioned that the Vikings are off a low-scoring game themselves. Mike Zimmer will probably play this one "close to the vest" as he isn’t likely to pull out many tricks. The Under is 10-4 in Dallas’ last 14 games as a road underdog. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on HOUSTON

This is one of a few games that saw the line “flip” early in the week. The look ahead line had Houston favored by 2.5, but things quickly changed once New England upset Baltimore last Saturday night. Now the Patriots are favored, a role they are quite accustomed to, but this isn’t your normal Bill Belichick team. Remember that they struggled to beat the winless Jets on the road and are just 4-5 SU on the season. They are 0-3 ATS this season against teams that have a losing record. They are also 0-4 ATS as a favorite of three points or fewer, losing all four games outright. That one goes back to last season. Houston hasn’t been very good this season and is just 2-7 ATS. But they are now a really good value compared to what the look ahead line for this game was. DeShaun Watson has not thrown an interception since Week 5. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

So the Saints are going with Taysom Hill here, not Jameis Winston, in place of the injured Drew Brees. That was a surprise to some, but we’re going to trust Sean Payton knows what he’s doing. The Saints should still be able to score plenty against a Falcons defense that is giving up 27.9 points/game and doesn’t really know what to expect from Hill. Remember that New Orleans started this season by going Over in every one of the first seven games. Atlanta can score too; they’ve averaged just over 30 points/game since Raheem Morris took over. The Saints strength on defense is stopping the run. The Falcons aren’t likely to run the ball very much here as Matt Ryan is going to test the Saints secondary. This is a game where the winning side is likely to score 30 and we think the loser will score enough to get it over the hump. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on SEATTLE 

We’ve got a three-way tie atop the NFC West with the Cardinals, Rams and Seahawks all 6-3. Seattle is trending in the wrong direction right now as they’ve lost back to back games for the first time this season. They are 1-4 ATS their L5 games. Arizona has already beaten Seattle once, in primetime no less (it was a Sunday night game), and comes off a thrilling 32-30 win over Buffalo where they completed a Hail Mary on the final play. They were obviously pretty lucky to win Sunday and truthfully were lucky to beat the Seahawks the first time too. They had to score at the end of regulation just to force OT. Seattle outgained them in that first contest 572-519 and never trailed until the game went final. Considering the Seahawks went off as the favorite at Arizona, they are looking like a really good value in the rematch. We’ll take them to win. Seattle hasn’t lost three in a row since the 2011 season. Arizona has trailed by at least 7 points each of the last three weeks. They were down 14 against Buffalo. It wasn’t too long ago that some considered the Seahawks the best team in the league. We’re not panicking over the recent results. Don’t see them losing again in an obvious revenge spot. Play on SEATTLE

AAA

This is an 8* on MINNESOTA

The Vikings have a real shot at erasing a poor 1-5 start to the season. They’re now 3-5 following wins over the Packers and Lions and after this week, they SHOULD be favored to win three consecutive home games (Dallas, Carolina, Jacksonville). The Bears are headed in the opposite direction as they were once 5-1, but have now lost three in a row. They have averaged just 16.7 points during the losing skid while the defense has given up 24.7. No longer can the defense carry this miserable offense in Chicago. Mitchell Trubisky wasn’t the answer at QB and Nick Foles isn’t either. There aren’t any other options right now. The big storyline for this game will be Kirk Cousins’ 0-9 record on Monday Night Football, but he’s better than what the Bears have at QB. Plus, Cousins has the luxury handing the ball off to Dalvin Cook, who has run for 369 yards the last two weeks with five touchdowns. The Bears rushing attack averages just 82 yards/game and they are 31st in third down success rate. The Vikings are 5-1 ATS L6 games and 40-22-1 ATS as favorites under Mike Zimmer. They continue their march back to .500. Play on MINNESOTA

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

It’s a low total this week on Monday Night Football, but that shouldn’t be a surprise with the Bears involved. They haven’t scored more than 23 points in a game since that improbable come from behind win over the Falcons back in Week 3. But in all fairness, they’ve been facing some strong defenses. Minnesota has allowed 20 or more in every game and 29.3 per game for the season. We don’t think the Bears will hit that latter number here, but they’ll certainly score enough to where this NFC North game goes Over the total. Then you’ve got a Minnesota offense that seems to have found its rhythm behind the running of Dalvin Cook. Cook has scored five touchdowns the past two games while running for 369 yards. The Vikings have scored at least 23 points in six straight games. Five of those games have gone Over. All six have seen at least 50 points scored. Something we found to be interesting is that all five NFC North games this season have seen the Over hit. Play on the OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on BALTIMORE

New England picked up an U-G-L-Y win Monday night against the Jets. The fact that they were trailing the Jets - by double digits - going into the 4th quarter should tell you all you need to know about the current state of the Patriots. Now on a short week they must turn around and play host to Baltimore, a team at the opposite end of the league’s spectrum. A 24-10 win over the Colts last week was hardly the Ravens “finest hour,” but they really dominated the second half which saw the defense pitch a shutout. That made it a 10-game road winning streak in which Lamar Jackson and the offense have averaged a very impressive 32.3 points/game. Remember that the Ravens destroyed a much better Patriots team around this time last season, 37-20. At the time, the Patriots were 8-0. Since then they’ve gone just 7-11 straight up. Their vaunted record as a home underdog is no longer really that applicable now that Tom Brady is in Tampa Bay. Baltimore has scored at least 20 points in 31 straight games and forced a turnover in 21 straight games. Play on BALTIMORE

AAA

This is a 9* on OVER

Pittsburgh is one of four teams that is 6-2 ATS, the best such record in the league. But Cincinnati happens to be one of the other three. Of course the Steelers’ 8-0 SU record is the envy of not just the 2-5-1 Bengals, but the rest of the league as well. On Saturday, Big Ben was activated from the COVID-19/reserve list and is expected to start Sunday. He should have plenty of time to throw against this Bengals defense that has generated only 11 sacks and recently traded Carlos Dunlap. On the other side, rookie Joe Burrow figures to be running for his life. The spread is larger than what we’d feel comfortable laying, but look for this AFC North game to go Over. Five of Cincy’s last seven, including three straight, have gone Over. The last three games have seen 58, 71 and 51 points scored. Pittsburgh averages 32.5 points/game at home. Last week’s poor effort (still a 24-19 win in Dallas) was their lowest scoring game to date. They are 16-6 Over L22 as a home favorite. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on SEATTLE

Seattle suffered its second loss of the season last week, 44-34 at the hands of Buffalo. That result surprised us as did the fact Bills QB Josh Allen threw for more than 400 yards against the Seahawks defense. Now it's not as if we were under the impression the Seahawks defense is one of the league’s best (far from it), but still it was jarring to see them give up 44 points. Now they face the Rams, who are off a bye, in a very important NFC West matchup. Look for Russell Wilson to lead the bounce back. Since Wilson was drafted, Seattle is 23-10-2 ATS as an underdog, the best such record in the league during that time. The last time the Seahawks were getting points was … last season. The Rams’ defense is second in the league in points allowed, but they’ve faced a slew of poor offenses. When they faced Buffalo, they gave up 35 points and were down big in the 1st half. The Seahawks offense leads the league in scoring at 34.3 points/game. The Rams are 5-3, but that includes 4-0 against the terrible NFC East. Take that away and their only win was against a Chicago team whose offensive capabilities couldn’t be further from Seattle’s. Play on LA RAMS

AAA

This is a 10* on ARIZONA

Buffalo picked up a big win last week. They beat Seattle 44-34 to move to 7-2 on the year. But that was at home. They are just 1-4 ATS L5 road games and hadn’t covered in four straight overall before last week’s upset of the Seahawks. Arizona is off a loss to Buffalo’s AFC East rival Miami, dropping them to 1-5 ATS as a home favorite since 2018. But the Cardinals are a good team and we don’t see them losing two in a row on their home field. Remember that they are the only other team (besides Buffalo) to defeat Seattle this year. Kyler Murray is putting up some really impressive numbers and the offense posted more total yards than Miami last week (442 to 312) despite losing last week. It was a three-point loss where the Dolphins scored a defensive TD. The Bills were able to beat the Seahawks largely because of a +4 turnover differential. They really don’t have the statistical profile of a typical 7-2 team. Besides two wins over the Jets, they have three wins by a field goal and another by a touchdown. They were dominated by two of the AFC’s better teams, Tennessee and Kansas City. This number is too short. Play on ARIZONA

AAA

This is a 7* on CLEVELAND 

This seems to be a bit of a curious line as Houston is getting a lot of respect despite being 2-6 straight up and 1-7 against the spread. Both Texans wins have come against Jacksonville, the second one last week by a score of 27-25. Cleveland was off last week (bye) and has failed to cover three in a row themselves. But the Browns are in a much better spot than the Texans right now, 5-3 and in the playoff hunt for the first time in over a decade. They get RB Nick Chubb back this week, which is a big deal. When Chubb got hurt, the Browns were leading the NFL in rushing yards -- averaging more than 200 per game. They’ve since “slipped” a bit (to 5th) but with Chubb back in the fold should find little resistance against a terrible Houston defense that gives up the most rushing yards per game in the league. The Texans haven’t covered a single road game this year (0-4 ATS) nor have they covered a single time as an underdog (0-5). There were COVID-19 concerns midweek for the Browns, but those all seem to be in the rear view mirror now. This is a game they HAVE to win if they want to end the league’s longest playoff drought. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

We expect a hot start from both offenses on Thursday when the Colts take on the Titans. Indianapolis actually dominated the first half against Baltimore last week, owning a huge edge in total yards. They didn’t make the most of it though and ended up losing the game 24-10. They are still scoring an average of 26.0 points as last week was their lowest scoring effort of 2020. Tennessee didn’t have its best offensive showing last week either. They were held to a season-low in yardage (224). It was actually the defense that led the way in a 24-17 win over Chicago. But be careful about putting too much stock in that performance. The Bears offense isn’t good. The Titans defense had really been struggling on third down this season before holding Chicago to 2 of 15. In the first seven games, the Titans were allowing opponents to convert at 62% on third down. The Colts defense has put up good numbers, but also faced a lot of bad offenses. Tennessee is 7th in the NFL in scoring offense at 29.0 points/game and they are averaging 33.0 at home. Play the OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

These Patriots aren’t the same Patriots we’re used to seeing. Bill Belichick is already missing Tom Brady as the team is an uncharacteristic 2-5 after seven games. Yet it could be worse. The Jets are 0-8 and easily the worst team in the league. New York is expected to turn to Joe Flacco tonight as Sam Darnold is dealing with a shoulder injury. But there’s no way we’re laying this massive number with a team (NE) that’s lost its last four games. We like the Over. With scoring at an all-time high in 2020, this total is just too low, even with Flacco as one of the starting QBs. While the Jets are last in offense, they do give up 29.8 points/game. We fully expect the Patriots to come through with their highest scoring game in over a month here. Last week they put up 21 on Buffalo and it would have been more had Cam Newton not fumbled late in the red zone. The Newton-led offense has scored 30 or more twice this year. For the Jets, their only other primetime game (Week 4 vs. Denver) produced their highest scoring game of the season and that was with Flacco playing most of the game. Play on OVER

AAA

THis is an 8* on the OVER

We had the Over when these teams met in Week 1 and had the Over in both of their games last week. All three Over bets were victorious. The Over is 7-0 in Saints games for the year. Given that, this number is way too low. Last week was the first Saints game this season where 50 combined points were scored. It was 49 and that was against an all defense/no offense team (the Bears). Saints games are averaging 57.5 points. Five of the seven have gotten to 57. Tom Brady and Tampa Bay are averaging 30.9 points/game. They are averaging 35.7 at home. It wasn’t their finest game Monday against the Giants. But that was on the road. The two weeks prior saw them score 45 (on the road) and 38. Also, look who’s back this week. New Orleans will welcome back WRs Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Chris Godwin is expected to play for Tampa Bay and they just signed Antonio Brown. The Over is 17-5 in Tampa Bay’s last 22 games, so they’ve been an Over machine as well. The Over is 4-2 when Brees faces off with Brady. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on ARIZONA

Two of the league’s surprises meet here as 4-3 Miami goes to 5-2 Arizona. Off their bye, the Dolphins beat the Rams last week 28-17. It was a nice win, but one that saw very little offense. With Tua Tagovailoa starting for the first time, the Dolphins offense gained just 145 total yards. They beat the Rams because they had a defensive touchdown, a punt return for touchdown and forced four turnovers, one of which led to a drive that started goal to go. It was the Rams that gained 471 yards. So Miami was outgained more than 3:1 and still won. The offense will have to be better this week against an Arizona team off its bye. Last we saw Kyler Murray, he was leading his team to an upset of Seattle two weeks ago. The Cardinals are the only team to beat the Seahawks. The offense has scored at least three touchdowns in 10 consecutive games. The defense ranks Top 10 against the pass, so look for Tua to have another rough day. The Dolphins have been favored in just one game all year, so its a real surprise they have a winning record. Play on ARIZONA

AAA

This is an 8* on SEATTLE (money line)

This looks to be a good game on paper with the 6-1 Seahawks taking on the 6-2 Bills. But even though both lead their respective divisions, we feel one side is clearly better than the other. Buffalo has actually been pretty mediocre in spite of its good record. They were a bit lucky to get by the Patriots last week as a 24-21 win needed a late Cam Newton fumble. It was the Bills’ 5th win by one score this season. Seattle, it could be argued, is in discussion for the league’s best team. They’re only loss this year came in overtime. They too have some close wins, but they’ve also scored at least 31 points in all but one game. Russell Wilson is on pace for what would be a record-setting season of 4900 yards passing and 600 yards rushing. His two leading receivers - Metcalf and Lockett - both already have 500+ yards and seven touchdowns! The defense has its issues, but Jamal Adams is set to come back. Buffalo has failed to cover four in a row. Seattle is 12-4-2 ATS in its last 18 games with a spread of three points or less. Plus they are 11-4-1 ATS L16 on the road. They will win this game. Play on SEATTLE (MONEYLINE)

AAA

This is a 9* on the OVER

Carolina-Kansas City is one of eight games on the Week 9 slate with a total of 50 or higher, matching a season-high. It’s a game that should end up even higher scoring than expected. The Chiefs offense, led by Patrick Mahomes, certainly needs no introduction.They are putting up 31.6 points/game. The last two games have seen them score 43 and 35. Mahomes has a 21-1 TD-INT ratio and COULD get Sammy Watkins back this week after the WR missed the last three games. With or without Watkins KC is gonna score on the Panthers defense which often fails to generate a lot of pressure. Carolina’s offense could be better, but the potential return of Christian McCaffrey would be the *chefs kiss* in going against a Chiefs defense giving up a ton of rush yards every week (29th in yards allowed). Like Watkins, McCaffrey’s possible return should just be treated as a “bonus.” We like the Over even if neither returns this week. The Over is on a 23-11 run when Carolina is a road underdog. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on HOUSTON

Houston has just one win in 2020. It was against Jacksonville. That’s who the Texans face again this week. This time the Jaguars will be starting a rookie quarterback named Jake Luton, a sixth round choice out of Oregon State. The Jags have lost their last six games and haven’t covered the spread in any of the last five. This is one of the worst teams in the league. Houston hasn’t played well and has the same 1-6 SU record as well as being 1-6 against the spread. But they have more talent than Jacksonville. Who would you rather have - Luton or DeShaun Watson? Watson is undefeated in five career starts vs. the Jaguars. It was 30-14 earlier this year as the Texans offense put up a season-most 487 yards. The Jaguars are 28th in rushing yards allowed. They’ve also given up 30 or more points in six straight games. The Texans are 11-2 L13 vs. Jacksonville and 16-4 L20. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is an 8* on GREEN BAY 

This is a significant revenge game on the Green Bay side. They lost twice to San Francisco last season. Neither game was really competitive either with final scores of 37-8 and 37-20. But it will be a much different 49ers team they face Thursday night. It won’t at all resemble the 2019 version. Really, it’s going to be quite the “skeleton crew.” Not only are there injuries to QB Garoppolo and TE Kittle, but the team is now dealing with a COVID outbreak that claimed the likes of WR Aiyuk (who had been playing well) and OL Trent Williams. The 49ers just don’t have much to offer here on a short week. The Packers won’t have much sympathy though. Coming out of a 28-22 loss to the Vikings last week, they know they can’t afford to lose this game. Wouldn’t you know the Packers are a perfect 6-0 ATS off their previous six losses. We took them in this exact spot against Houston two weeks ago, a game they won 35-20. They may be thin at running back, but Aaron Rodgers is still taking snaps and this offense put up 400+ yards in a loss last week. Don’t see Green Bay losing for a third time in four weeks as a favorite. Play on GREEN BAY

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Coming off a 45-point effort last week vs. Las Vegas and a 38-point effort the week before that (vs. Green Bay), Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay offense should be in for another big night Monday against the Giants. This Giants defense has struggled to defend the pass (21st in air yards allowed) even though they have already faced four backup quarterbacks! The Buccaneers are averaging 31.7 points/game for the year, so they’ll obviously do most of the scoring here. They are a huge favorite and for good reason. New York is already guaranteed to lose six of its first eight games for the fourth straight season. That’s the worst such active streak in the league right now. While the Giants don’t score much, they are averaging 17.4 points/game, which would be enough to help send this Over presuming Tampa Bay hits its own scoring average. The Buccaneers have allowed 20 or more points three of the last four games. The Over is 20-8 in the Bucs last 28 road games. Over is also 4-1 in the Giants’ last five as a road underdog. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

All the focus is going to be on the Cowboys offense in this one with Ben Dinucci, a 7th round rookie, making his first start. But you can’t forget about how bad this Dallas defense has been in giving up an average of almost 35 points/game. That’s the most in the league and really notable considering how low this total is Sunday night. The Eagles have given up 30 or more points three times themselves. They give up 28.0 points/game. Carson Wentz has played better the last three weeks, a stretch which has seen Philadelphia average 26.3 points. They had over 400 yards last week despite scoring only 22 vs. the Giants. No Eagles game has seen less than 43 points scored. We know it may not have been the case last Thursday vs. the Giants (when we won with the Under) but two bad teams can easily produce a high-scoring game with mistakes. Don’t be surprised if there’s a defensive touchdown in this game. Over is 5-0 for Philly the past five times they’ve been off a game with 350+ total yards. Over is 7-2 for Dallas off a loss by 14 or more points. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on OVER 

Taking the Bears Over may sound risky given that they didn’t score an offensive TD Monday night. But they are playing the Saints, who have gone Over in every game this season. As per usual, Drew Brees and the Saints offense are putting up a lot of points. They’ve scored at least 24 in every game and are averaging 30.0 per game. This is a very low total for a Saints game. Every single one of their games has seen at least 51 total points scored. The offensive production has come in spite of missing Michael Thomas most of the way. But Chicago does have a chance in this game and that’s because of the Saints defense, which is nowhere near as good as it was a year ago. That unit ranks near the bottom of the league in efficiency and has allowed six passes of 48+ yards the last four games. They’ve allowed the second most TD passes in the league, trailing only Atlanta. Nick Foles will make a couple big plays in this one. He threw an interception in the end zone last week. All we probably need from the Bears is 20-21 points and that’s basically what they are averaging this year (19.7). Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 7* on SEA 

Seattle lost last week, the first time all season that’s happened, but it took overtime. We don’t think this line should have dropped as far as it has, based on one loss. The Seahawks offense is still as good as any in the league. They’ll be facing a good 49ers defense here. But the issue for the Niners is their offense, which just won’t be able to keep up. Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t Kyler Murray, the quarterback that beat Seattle last week. The Seahawks defense is most susceptible to the pass, but we don’t see Garoppolo and the Niners taking full advantage of that. Despite the third shortest average pass distance, “Jimmy G” has the fifth highest interception rate since the start of last year. Making that many mistakes while playing it conservative is pretty rare. This is a home game for Seattle. They are 31-8 straight up the week after a loss and have covered 13 of the last 17 games with San Francisco. Play on SEATTLE 

AAA

This is a 10* on LAC

The Chargers didn’t win any division games last year. They appeared well on their way to winning one earlier this year when they led the Chiefs by 11 in the second half of Week 2. But they lost that game in overtime. Close losses have haunted this franchise in recent years but the Bolts left nothing to chance last week when they defeated Jacksonville 39-29. While just their second win of the season, we think it’s the start of what looks to be a favorable stretch for the team. They are 4-1-1 ATS and this week are in Denver to face a Broncos team that has scored more than 21 points in only one game all year and that was vs. the Jets. Justin Herbert may be a rookie, but he’s already surpassed Denver’s Drew Lock, who has the league’s third worst QBR over the past two weeks. Since the start of 2017, LA is 7-2-1 ATS as an away favorite. The Broncos lost by 27 last week and while that was to the Chiefs, they are now 0-3 at home with two of those losses by 18 or more. They also have the league’s second worst turnover differential, so be on the look out for that. Play on LA CHARGERS

AAA

This is an 8* on TEN

Tennessee is off its first loss of the season, but it came by just three points (27-24) to a team that also came into last week unbeaten (Pittsburgh). The Titans are 16-7-2 ATS the past 25 times they’ve been off a loss. Our expectation here is they are going to put up a lot of points on a Cincinnati team that always seems to be close, but can’t get over the hump. The Bengals’ record is 1-5-1 after a 37-34 home loss to Cleveland last week where they gave up the game winning touchdown late. It was their fourth loss by five points or fewer this season. While the Bengals are 5-1 ATS the last 6 weeks (only loss to Baltimore), one of the league’s worst defenses is really going to struggle to contain Ryan Tannehill and a very good Titans offense that is averaging 36 points/game over the last three weeks. The Cincinnati offensive line does not do a good job at protecting rookie Joe Burrow and he figures to be running for his life in this one. The Bengals have allowed the most sacks in the league while the Titans lead in takeaways.  The Bengals defense is now worse after trading its best pass rusher, Carlos Dunlap. Play on TENNESSEE

AAA

This is an 10* on CAROLINA

Atlanta is a sinking ship right now, playing for a lame duck interim coach. It almost seems as if they invent new ways to blow games. They have blown fourth quarter leads in half of their six losses. The most recent being last week against Detroit where had Todd Gurley simply NOT scored a touchdown with 1:04 left, they could have kicked a game winning field goal with no time left. Instead, Gurley did score and that gave the Lions the ball back. They drove 75 yards down the field in 64 seconds and won the game 23-22. Now one loss where the Falcons did not blow a fourth quarter lead was against Carolina three weeks ago. They trailed in that one pretty much throughout and the 23-16 loss ended up getting Dan Quinn fired. We look for the Panthers to pull off the season sweep Thursday night. This time, they are likely to have Christian McCaffery in the lineup. In three road games, the Atlanta defense has yielded an average of 31.0 points/game. They are now on an 8-21 ATS slide in the month of October. Play on CAROLINA

AAA

This is a 10* on LAR

Chicago has been a clear overachiever to this point. In four of their five wins, they’ve gone off as the underdog. An outright win Monday night would match a record with five upsets wins in the first seven games. We don’t see that happening though. The Rams are off a loss at San Francisco where they went off as a three-point favorite. We took the 49ers in that one, feeling the line had moved too much. No such movement this week and we’re comfortable laying points with a team that is 14-8-1 ATS under Sean McVay when laying five or more points. The Rams are also 4-1 ATS the past five as a home favorite. One more trend in their favor is that they are 5-1 ATS off their last six straight up losses. The Bears offense just doesn’t do much. The defense has been bailing them out thus far, however the task will be too tall here as the Rams defense is giving up just 19.0 points/game. In two home games, they’ve allowed just 26 points. They beat the Bears 17-7 last year. Play on LA RAMS

AAA

This is an 8* on SEATTLE 

Arizona may have looked good last Monday (we had them!), but this is not a good situation to be facing the undefeated Seahawks. The Cardinals are working on a short week here. Seattle is off a bye. The Seahawks will not play the same kind of mistake-filled football Arizona saw in Dallas Monday night. Russell Wilson is having an MVP-caliber season right now. His team has covered seven straight when playing with AT LEAST seven days rest. They are 3-0 ATS the last three seasons off their bye. The Seahawks’ offense is averaging nearly 34 points per game and almost 7.0 yards per play! Remember that the Cardinals have lost to the likes of the Lions and Panthers, the former coming right here at home. The four teams they’ve beaten - San Francisco, Washington, the Jets and Dallas - aren’t exactly off to great starts. Excluding the 49ers, the other three teams Arizona has beaten are a combined 3-15 SU. They are not in the Seahawks league … yet. Play on SEATTLE

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

The Chargers are 1-4 but as is usually the case, they’re losing close. All four losses have been by seven points or less, three of them coming against the Chiefs, Saints and Bucs. Two of those three were in overtime! They are off a bye here and facing a Jaguars team that also has just one win, but has been a lot less competitive in doing so. Jacksonville lost 34-16 at home to Detroit last week, making it five straight games they’ve allowed 30 or more points. All five have been losses. The Chargers offense scored 31 and 27 against Tampa Bay and New Orleans as rookie QB Justin Herbert continues to perform better than expected. He very well could be in for his best day as a pro this week. He might have to be, seeing as the Chargers defense has given up 38 and 30 points in those last two games. Jacksonville’s Gardner Minshew has attempted 40 or more passes in each of the last five games. The Over is 7-3 in the Jags previous 10 conference games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on TB

Not sure how bumping this game UP helps the Raiders, who have had to place their entire starting offensive linemen on the COVID-19 list! We liked Tampa Bay BEFORE the unfortunate news hit Las Vegas’ ranks and now this sets up to be an even better spot to take the Bucs. They should overwhelm the Raiders up front. Honestly, the Raiders were going to struggle in pass protection even with their normal starting offensive line. Tampa Bay’s defense is #1 in the league in stopping the run and total yards allowed. They’ve got the second most sacks with 22. Just last week we saw the Bucs beat a previously unbeaten Green Bay team by four touchdowns. Since losing at New Orleans in Week 1, TB has gone 4-1 with that one loss coming by a single point on a Thursday night game. (They probably should have beaten Chicago too). Tom Brady is 21-12 ATS L33 as a road favorite. The Bucs have quietly scored the second most points in the league, are fully healthy on offense and are facing a defense that has given up 30 or more points in four of its five games. Play on TAMPA BAY

AAA

This is a 10* on NO

New Orleans is dealing with injuries at receiver, but not having Michael Thomas for most of their games hasn’t slowed them down thus far. They’ve scored 30 or more in all but one game this season. So even with Emmanuel Sanders set to be out, we still think the Saints will find a way to put up enough points on the Panthers this week. Look for the offense to lean on Alvin Kamara, who has four straight games of 100+ total yards and has way more receiving yardage than any other back in the league. Remember the Saints are off a bye here, so they’ve had two weeks to prepare for a Panthers team that is starting Teddy Bridgewater at QB. Bridgewater started five games for the Saints last year, so they know him well. Though only 3-2 straight up to this point, October is when the Saints get hot. They are 15-2 ATS in the month of October since 2016, which is the best record in the league over that span.  They’ve also covered 21 of the last 31 division games. Carolina didn’t look very good against Chicago last week and has topped 23 points in just two games, both times at home. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is an 8* on ATL

Atlanta finally won a game! They beat Minnesota last week, handily, 40-23 as a 4-point road underdog. That was the first game since firing Dan Quinn. Interim Raheem Morris now looks to make it two in a row as the Falcons are set to host Detroit this week. The Lions are similar to the Birds in that they too are off a win and probably should have a better record. The Lions have led in all five of their games including by double digits in all three losses! But Atlanta can top that as they held double digit 4th quarter leads in two of its losses. Detroit was off a bye facing Jacksonville last week, so that helped. The last time they won two straight games was when they started 2-0-1 last year. Since then, they’ve won just three of 18 games. They are 3-9 ATS their last 12 games as an underdog. The Lions’ defense is 4th worst in the league right now so look for Falcons RB Todd Gurley to potentially have a repeat of his performance two weeks ago when he went for 121 yards on 14 touches. Atlanta will win its first home game of the season. Play on ATLANTA

AAA

This is a 6* on GB 

Green Bay suffered its first loss of the season last week and it came in humiliating fashion, 38-10 at Tampa Bay. But despite giving up 38 unanswered points, the Packers were not necessarily dominated to the degree that you might think. Two Aaron Rodgers’ interceptions, one of which was returned for a TD, really swung that game in the Buccaneers’ direction. Prior to last week’s loss, GB hadn’t turned the ball over once all year. The offense scored 30+ points in each of the first four weeks. Now they’ll face a Texans defense that is in tatters after giving away the lead late last week and losing in overtime to Tennessee. Other than Jacksonville, all of Houston’s opponents have scored at least 28 points. The Texans are 30th in total yards allowed and last against the run. They’ve also allowed 13 passing TDs in six games. So Rodgers should have a nice bounce back game here. He’s already 5-0 ATS off his previous five losses. Houston has not covered (0-4 ATS) as an underdog this season. The Packers are 8-2 ATS L10 vs. AFC teams. Play on GREEN BAY

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

The NFC East is a total joke right now. Despite losing Dak Prescott for the year and getting blown out Monday night, Dallas is still in first place with a 2-4 record. Either the Giants or Eagles will join the Cowboys at 2 wins after Thursday. That is unless they tie, which Philly did earlier in the year against Cincinnati. The Giants were the last team in the division to record a win, doing so last week, appropriately against Washington. They scored just 20 points though and that was with a defensive score. New York is 31st in both yards and points per game offensively and their scoring average of 16.8 PPG would be significantly lower if not for putting up 34 points against the worst defense in the league (Dallas). The Eagles scored 28 last week against the Ravens, but a lot of that came in “garbage time.” Carson Wentz isn’t having a good year at all and TE Zach Ertz is going to be out for at least 3-4 weeks. Running back Miles Sanders will also miss this game. They aren’t turning things around on a short week. The only good news for Eagles fans is that the Giants have topped 16 points on offense in only one game this year (at Dallas), so they won’t be scoring much here. The Under is 5-1 for the Eagles, their last six games as a home favorite while it’s 4-1 for the Giants in their last five as a road underdog. Play on UNDER. 

This is a 10* on ARI

Dallas has struggled all season on the defensive side of the ball. Actually, to call it “struggling” would be putting things rather mildly. They have flat out stunk defensively. Even last week, when they won, they gave up 34 points to a Giants team that had previously not scored more than 16 points in any game this season. And the Cowboys needed two field goals in the final two minutes, including the game-winner with no time left, just to come out ahead. Through five games, America’s Team has given up more than 400 yards and 36 points/game. The numbers get even uglier when analyzing just the last four games. Only five defenses have given up more yards per game while no one has allowed more points. But of course, on top of that horrific defense, the bigger story is now the loss of QB Dak Prescott (broke his ankle) for the rest of the season. Prescott was putting up historic numbers and doing his best to counteract the defense. Now it’s Andy Dalton under center. Arizona is coming off an easy 30-10 win over the Jets and should again put up plenty of points on Monday night. The Cardinals are now 8-2-2 ATS L12 road games while Dallas is the only team in the league that hasn’t covered a single game this season. Play on ARIZONA

AAA

10* play on SF

So the 49ers played a terrible game last week. They lost 43-17 at home to Miami. It happens. Admittedly, San Francisco should be worried as the week before that they lost at home to Philadelphia. Now they face the prospect of a third consecutive home defeat as the Rams come to town Sunday night. Don’t look for that to happen though. This line “flipped” pretty quickly as it was San Fran that opened as a favorite. The line move has been pretty severe and an overreaction (our opinion) to what happened last week. The Rams are 4-1, but have beaten some pretty weak teams along the way. The last two weeks have seen them get to face the Giants and Washington, who are a combined 1-9. This is the first time all season that the 49ers will be an underdog. It comes at a time when the offense is the healthiest it's been all year. They defeated the Rams both times last year. Let’s just chalk up last week to a “one week thing” as SF should bounce back in primetime this week. They are 5-1 ATS their last six games as an underdog. Play on SAN FRANCISCO

AAA