This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the New York Giants.

The Eagles are only allowing just over 20 PPG, but the Giants are only allowing 21. Each offense has struggled to this point, but at 1-4, New York is still within striking distance of 2-2 Washington. Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense is struggling, which doesn’t bode well heading into this difficult road venue on the short week. Note that the Eagles are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games played on field turf and only 2-4 ATS in their last six as a road favorite of three points or less, while New York is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after two or more consecutive losses. We like the veteran Manning to take advantage. Play on the GIANTS.

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This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the New Orleans Saints.

We expect Drew Brees and the Saints to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night in this one. Brees needs just 201 passing yards to become the NFL’s all time passing leader (passing Peyton Manning.) The potent New Orleans’ offense got even more so this week with the return of RB Mark Ingram. The combination of Ingram and Kamara is a formidable one and it opens things up even more for Brees. The Redskins come out of their bye, but we think that rest will lead to rust. Note as well that Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four MNF games , while New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a home fav in the 3.5 to 7 points range and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU victories. Lay the points, play on the SAINTS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Kansas City Chiefs.

Jacksonville is 3-1 and it comes in off a victory over the lowly Jets last week, but we don’t think it’ll have enough in the tank this afternoon to hang with red hot Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes, who has a 14:0 TD:INT ratio. Mahomes is surrounded by a plethora of talent and while the defense is clearly the weak point to this point, there’s no question that that unit catches a break today facing this rather one-dimensional Jags offense. Jacksonville’s defense has been tremendous, but we’re expecting the unit to take a step back back in this difficult venue. Lay the points, play on the CHIEFS.

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This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the UNDER between the Colts/Pats.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Indianapolis has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last nine after two or more consecutive SU losses and in seven of its last 12 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while New England has seen the total go UNDER the number in ten of its last 13 against teams with losing records.

The bottom line: The Colts can’t afford to turn this one into a “shootout” and expect to hand with Tom Brady. Andrew Luck has been decent this season, but his No. 1 WR Ty Hilton is questionable here and if he does play, he clearly won’t be at 100%. On a short week, look for the visitors to try and control the clock while on offense. The Pats come in off the big win over the Dolphins last week, but consistency from game to game can’t be trusted yet at this point either in our opinion. We’re banking on this one staying UNDER once it’s all said and done.

AAA Sports

This is 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER Chiefs/Broncos.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that KC has seen the total go UNDER the number in 11 of its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU victories and in 18 of its last 28 as the favorite, while Denver has seen the total go UNDER in interestingly seven of its last nine games played in the month of October.

The bottom line: These are two teams which pride have in the past, prided themselves on their tough defensive play. But those days are gone, as each plays at much more up-tempo and frantic pace. But after their flawless start, we think KC finally takes a step back here in this difficult road venue. The Broncos’ defense isn’t what it used to be, but we think it can get in the back field today to throw Patrick Mahomes off his game. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* NFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between the Hawks/Cards.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Seattle has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last nine against clubs with losing records, while Arizona has seen the total go OVER in four of its last five after two or more consecutive SU losses.

The bottom line: It’s an important divisional battle for these struggling rivals. The situation and the numbers/stats to do indeed point to the OVER as the savvy move on the total in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the New England Patriots.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on common sense and strong/relevant ATS statistics.

As note that Miami is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 against the division, while New England is 15-10 ATS in its last 25 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, 8-4 ATS its last 12 against the division and 14-5 ATS in its last 19 against teams with winning records.

The bottom line: After starting the year 3-0, it’s a natural letdown spot for Miami. At 1-2 though, we’d argue that this is the most important game of Tom Brady’s career. If the Pats fall to 1-3, they’re almost virtually eliminated from playoff contention. Brady comes in off a horrible outing in Detroit and the critics are ready to jump all over the best QB in the World if he falters again here. The spot light is on Brady to execute and we expect the veteran to deliver. Lay the points, play on the PATRIOTS.

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This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the LA Rams.

Minnesota’s looked terrible. Kirk Cousins has looked decent at times and completely lost in others. The run defense was No. 1 last year, but it’s No. 15 this year. The Vikes looked “OK” in the Week 1 win over the 49ers, much better in its 29-29 tie with the Packers in Week 2, but downright terrible at home in a 26-7 loss to the Bills as a 17-point favorite last weekend. The defense is out of sync, the offense is out of sync and now that struggling unit hits the road on a short week to face the league’s No. 1 offense and one of the best overall defensive units as well. The Rams feature Jared Goff and RB Todd Gurley, along with many other skilled offensive weapons. LA’s offensive and defensive lines are two of the best as well. The Rams have a chance to all but eliminate the Vikes from Super Bowl contention here, as a 1-2-1 record is almost as difficult as 0-3. We’re banking on the Rams going for the jugular and embarrassing the Vikes on the National stage. Lay the points, play on the RAMS.

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This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the OVER Steelers/Bucs.

Pittsburgh’s season is on the line. RB Bell is out, meaning that everything falls onto Ben Roethlisberger’s broad shoulders. If the Steelers are ever going to win this games, it’s going to be on Big Ben’s arm. We expect Pittsburgh to open up the playbook through the air today, early often and throughout. Tampa is off to an unreal 2-0 start thanks to incredible play from QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (8:1 TD:INT) and an offense which is “firing on all cylinders.” And that’s bad news for a Steelers’ defense which has looked terrible this season, giving up over 40 points to the Chiefs last week. We’re expecting a high-tempo, high-scoring OVER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the UNDER between the Jets/Browns.

After a great opener, Sam Darnold and the Jets came back down to Earth in Week 2. The short week on the road isn’t going to help cohesion for this young team either in our opinion. On the offensive side of the ball that is. Defensively the Jets have been strong this year, allowing just 18.5 PPG. The Browns could easily be 2-0, but they’re not, they’re just 0-1-1. Cleveland continues to work through growing pains offensively, the strength being the running game which has posted 135 YPG average in the early going. Defensively the team has been sharp as well though in allowing just 21 PPG. Two young teams on a short week. Something has to give here and we believe it’ll be the offensive units. Look for the defenses to dominate the summaries tomorrow morning. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Chicago Bears.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

First off the Seahawks lost top WR Doug Baldwin to injury in last week’s 27-24 setback at Denver. Seattle’s offensive line is a mess as well, which doesn’t bode well facing the Bears’ aggressive front seven, which was unable to hold on in last week’s 24-23 setback in Green Bay. Chicago looked much more complete through all three phases and we think it’ll pull away down the stretch in this one.

Note as well that the Bears 6-2 ATS in their last eight MNF games, while the Hawks are 0-6-2 ATS in their last ten on grass. Lay the points, play on CHICAGO.

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This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER between the Rams/Raiders.

The last thing the Raiders can do here is get into a “shootout” and expect to win this against the league’s No. 1 offense from a year ago. Oakland traded away star player Kahlil Mack to the Bears for draft picks so the Rams have to be liking their chances tonight, but the Raiders catch a tiny break here in that none of the Rams starters saw any time in the preseason. For our Over/Under selections (in every sport), we are always on the look out for situations like this one to take advantage of. LA’s offense is rusty and the Raiders are going to want to slow this one down at every moment possible as they look to control the clock on offense, so as to limit the time the Rams’ offense is on the field of play. When you add it all up, this number is indeed a little high; play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Atlanta Falcons.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play has been released early and will have an updated analysis closer to game time. After making it to the Super Bowl and losing to the Pats, the Falcons endured an “up and down” season last year. The team’s core remains in tact and it’s made some significant moves in the offseason on the defensive side. The Eagles have a hang over in our opinion after their Super Bowl victory last season. While an outright win is not out of the question, we’re going to ultimately recommend to grab as many points as you can. Play on the FALCONS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Philadelphia Eagles.

Nick Foles isn’t Carson Wentz, but clearly the guy knows how to play. Often in games like this it simply comes down to execution and that’s all the Eagles will be asking of their competent back-up in this one. Tom Brady has a huge edge over Foles in experience, but let’s be fair, not in too many other departments at this stage of his career. Foles can pretty much match Brady throw for throw. Philadelphia has the stronger run game and the better defense as well and that top notch defensive play was on full display in their beatdown of the Vikings last weekend. The Patriots’ also looked sharp defensively in their victory over the Jags. These are two evenly matched teams, but we ultimately feel that Philadelphia’s defense is playing at such an extremely high level right now, that we have a hard time seeing Brady being as effective this week as he was last. That swings the value to the underdog. Grab as many points as you can, play on the EAGLES.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the OVER between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Jacksonville came up big defensively against the inept Bills, limiting them to just 263 total yards, including just 133 passing. The Jags though figure to have a much more difficult time in Pittsburgh, who will look to take Jacksonville out of its comfort zone by pushing the pace early and often. We think the Jags are going to be forced to play from behind today and therefore, they’re going to have to abandon the run and start airing it out. We also expect to see some defensive TD’s produced from both of these talented groups. Note that Jacksonville has seen the total go OVER the number in its last two as a road dog in the seven to ten points range, while Pittsburgh has seen the total go OVER the number in five of eight at home this season. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Tennessee Titans.

The Titans come in off a tough 22-21 road win over the Chiefs and while an outright upset today is likely out of the cards, we think the conditions are right for a much more competitive affair than what the bookmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota silenced the critics by leading his team back from a 21-3 deficit last week, finishing with 205 passing yards, two TD’s, one INT and 46 rushing yards. RB Derrick Henry posted 156 rushing yards in the victory. Tennessee looked exceptional on the defensive side of the ball as well in the second half, holding KC scoreless after the break. There’s trouble in paradise with the ownership, coaching and QB Tom Brady over on the New England side. But the off field issues likely aren’t going to slow down anything on the field this weekend. New England is the better team in this matchup, which has a major advantage with home field as well. But note that the Pats still own the 30th ranked pass defense. Note as well that Tennessee is 7-1 ATS in its last eight against teams with winning records, while New England is 1-2 ATS in its last three when playing with two weeks of rest. We look for TENNESSEE to leave everything it has on the field of play and to give the Pats a bit of a scare. Grab the points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER between the Atlanta Falcons and the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Eagles were among the league leaders in every offensive statistical category this year, but with starting QB Carson Wentz down with injury for the season, not many are giving his back up Nick Foles a chance. But with an extra week off to prepare, we expect the home side to put some points on the board tonight. The Falcons looked great in their Wildcard win over the Rams, capitalizing on mistakes and in the end getting solid production from their offensive veterans. Atlanta was decent defensively this year, but Philadelphia for the most part relied on its offense to carry the load most weeks this season. Philadelphia finds itself an underdog in this game. The Eagles aren’t going to get by the Falcons by “playing it safe.” We look for Philadelphia to come out and push the pace and in a game which we envision being very competitive until the final moments, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the savvy move.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the OVER between the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints.

New Orleans beat Carolina twice in the regular season (34-13 and 31-21.) The main thing we took out of those two games is that the Panthers are unable to slow down Drew Brees, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Carolina won’t be rolling over, it comes in averaging 22.7 PPG, while allowing 20.4. Cam Newton had a sub-par season (22:16 TD:INT), but he has a big opportunity to avenge the two regular season losses and wipe away doubters/haters with a big performance. We’re expecting the dynamic QB to be at his best today. The Saints average 28 PPG and allow 20.4. Brees had a tremendous year with a 23:8 TD:INT. Note that he was particularly impressive against the Panthers as well this year with 389 yards and a 4:0 TD:INT in two games. Note that Carolina has seen the total go OVER the number in four of seven as an underdog this year and in six of eight against teams with winning records, while New Orleans has seen the total go OVER the number in five of eight at home this season and in six of 11 as a favorite. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the LA Rams.

We think the Rams will prove to be too much for the Falcons to handle, on both sides of the ball. Atlanta got back into the playoffs with a 22-10 home win over Carolina in Week 17. The Falcons clearly aren’t the same team which had a late 28-3 lead over the Patriots in the Super Bowl last year though. Atlanta averages just 22.1 PPG this year. Matt Ryan finished with a mediocre 20:12 TD:INT. Julio Jones had a big year with 1,444 receiving yards, but the run game stalled. Defensively the Falcons are decent, allowing only 19.7 PPG. LA led the league in scoring with 29.9 PPG, while ranked 12th on the defensive side by allowing 20.6. QB Jared Goff finished with a fantastic 28:7 TD:INT. Both Goff and RB Todd Gurley sat out the Rams Week 17 loss to San Francisco, so each will be extra/rested and prepared for this one. Note that Atlanta is just 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road and 0-4 ATS in its last four road playoff games, while the Rams are 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a favorite and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 following a double-digit home loss. We’re expecting a complete rout. Lay the points, play on the RAMS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Pittsburgh is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road fav in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Houston is already just 1-3 ATS this year after two or more consecutive SU losses and just 2-4 ATS this season against teams with winning records.

The bottom line: Steelers’ star WR Antonio Brown won’t be playing in this game, which is a blow for Pittsburgh. But the Steelers should still be OK here facing a dejected Texans side that’s down to its third string QB this weekend. Pittsburgh had its eight game win streak snapped in last week’s controversial 27-24 loss to the Patriots, but with two games left against the Texans this week and at home against the Browns in their finale, the Steelers have a big opportunity to erase that setback from memory and destroy these two bottom feeding opponents before the playoffs. Lay the points, play on the STEELERS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Indianapolis Colts.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Indianapolis is already 2-1 ATS this year as an underdog of ten points or more and interestingly, it’s a perfect 3-0 ATS against the AFC North this season, while Baltimore is just 1-2 ATS against teams with losing records this season and just 9-12 ATS in its last 21 in front of the home town crowd.

The bottom line: The Colts have been out of the playoff picture for weeks, but will look to play spoiler here. The Ravens’ playoff hops for a wild card spot continued with last week’s win over the Browns, but we think Baltimore stumbles on the short week. Look for Jacoby Brissett and the COLTS to keep this one closer than what Las Vegas would like us to think.

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This is a 10* CASH BOMB on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Atlanta is just 2-4 ATS on the road this year and only 5-6 ATS when playing the role of favorite, while Tampa Bay is 2-0 ATS in its last two Monday Night contests.

The bottom line: So far the Bucs are 0-3 ATS this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. We think that changes this evening though. Tampa Bay won’t be competing in the postseason, but we think it shows up and competes today. There will be no love loss between these division rivals obviously and the home side does indeed play with revenge after falling 34-20 in ATL in late November. The Falcons are in a dog fight for the NFC South crown, with both Carolina and New Orleans sitting at 9-4. With a game at New Orleans next weekend, it’s definitely not too hard to imagine the visitors also in some small way getting caught looking ahead to that one. We expect a competitive affair, so grab the points. Play on TAMPA BAY.

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This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER between the LA Rams and the Seattle Seahawks.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that the Rams have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last five as a road dog of three points or less and in ten of their last 15 against clubs with winning records, while Seattle has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of eight as a favorite already this year and in all four against divisional opponents.

The bottom line: This is a pivotal game. LA is 9-4 and the Hawks are 8-5. Seattle already beat the Rams 16-10 in LA earlier in the year and we think another tight, lower-scoring defensive battle is in the cards in the rematch in the chilly Northwest. The conditions and the numbers all point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the OVER between the LA Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense: 

As note that LA has seen the total go OVER the number in two of its last three against clubs with winning records, while KC has seen the total go OVER the number in two of three off a division game and in five of its last seven against divisional opponents.

The bottom line: Say what you want about each of these teams, but both “go” how their QB’s “go.” Clearly this is a massive game with big implications for both of these 7-6 divisional foes (No. 1 in the AFC West is on the line.) We’re fully convinced that these veteran QB’s will be the main story line in tomorrow’s summaries. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relative O/U ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that New England has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of six on the road already this year and in both games it’s played in this season off a win against a division rival (23-3 stomping of the Bills), while Miami has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four as an underdog of ten points or more.

The bottom line: Miami kept its hopes alive with a 35-9 win over the Broncos. Denver has no real starting QB and its defense is a complete mess though. New England just shut down a much more talented Bills team on the road and we’re fully expecting a similar effort here as well. The Pats are without Rob Gronkowski, which does indeed put added emphasis onto the ground game for New England. When you add it all up, this total is a little high. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between the Seattle Seahawks and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Seattle has seen the total go OVER the number in in all three non-conference games that it’s played in this year, while Jacksonville has seen the total go OVER the number in in both of its non-conference contests this season.

The bottom line: It’s a non-conference game, but it’s an important one for both sides. Jacksonville is tied for the AFC South division lead, while Seattle is also at 8-4 and sitting one game behind the Rams in the NFC West. Plenty to play for between these two teams and we’re expecting each to open up the playbook. This number is just a little low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that New Orleans has seen the total go UNDER the number in its last two times that it’s played on a “Thursday” night, while ATL has seen the total go UNDER in nine of its last 16 as an underdog and in five of six already this season against teams with winning records.

The bottom line: This is a very important game for the Falcons, as a loss would almost assuredly see them fall out of playoff contention in the competitive NFC South. As explosive as Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones are, the last thing Atlanta can do is turn this one into a “track meet” with Drew Brees and company and expect to come out on the winning side. With the home side looking to “control” the tempo of this one while on offense and when taking into account the short week and above trends, all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the UNDER between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals. 

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go UNDER the number in all six of its road games this year and in seven of ten when playing the role of favorite, while Cincinnati has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of four already this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent (lost the first one in the season series to the Steelers 29-14 back on October 22nd) and in three of five in front of the home town crowd overall. 

The bottom line: Pittsburgh has been getting the job done all year with its defense. Cincinnati can ill afford to turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the Steelers down the stretch. The conditions and the numbers all point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a TOP RATED BLOCKBUSTER on the Carolina Panthers.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relative ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Carolina is already 5-1 ATS on teh road this yera, 4-0 ATS as an underdog and 2-0 ATS when trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while New Orleans is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after failing to cover the spread in back to back games coming in. 

The bottom line: New Orleans looks like its running out of gas now, suffering first loss in eight games in last week’s 26-20 setback to the Rams. And with a game at Atlanta next weekend, there’s no doubt that this sets up as a “trap” for the home side vs. the revenge minded Panthers. Carolina lost 34-17 in the first matchup against New Orleans, but it comes in on top form, having won four straight. We expect these trends to continue and while we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the PANTHERS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Buffalo Bills.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense:

As note the New England is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Buffalo is already 3-1 ATS at home and 2-1 ATS against teams with winning records.

The bottom line: The Bills went back to Tyrod Taylor last week and the result was perhaps a season saving 16-10 victroy over Kansas City. But now Buffalo once again finds itself with its back against the wall and clearly it can’t take anything for granted at this point. We think New England wins this one, but with tough upcoming games at Miami and then Pittsburgh, we believe the defending champs get caught “looking ahead” and leave the back door open wide just enough for the hungry home side to sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points, play on the BILLS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER between the Washington Redskins and the Dallas Cowboys.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense: 

As note that Washington has seen the total go OVER the number in 14 of its last 19 on the road (including in three of four this year) and in 13 of its last 17 against clubs with losing records, while Dallas has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last six home games when the total is set between 42.5 and 45 points range.

The bottom line: This is a very important game for both struggling teams. The Skins are off a less than impressive 20-10 win over the Giants on Thanksgiving, while Dallas has lost three straight with RB Ezekiel Elliot suspended. Desperation breeds motivation. We look for these teams to open up the playbook and for this one to sail OVER once it’s all said and done.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Baltimore Ravens.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Houston is just 1-2 ATS in its last three Monday Night games and only 3-4 ATS this season in all games it’s played on a grass field, while Baltimore is 2-1 ATS in its last three MNF contests and 4-3 ATS this year in all games played on grass.

The bottom line: Houston came out of its bye week and lost three straight, but somehow managed the 31-21 home win over Arizona last weekend. With a game at division rival Tennessee next Sunday, we think the visitors have a classic letdown here. Baltimore could have easily suffered a letdown itself in its first game back from its bye week, but instead it dominated in last week’s 23-0 victory at Green Bay. All signs point to another dominant effort from the Ravens defense. Lay the points, play on BALTIMORE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Chicago Bears.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense:

As note the Chicago is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 against teams with winning records and 9-6 ATS in its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU losses (ncluding 2-0 ATS this season), while Philadelphia is interestingly just 2-6 ATS in its last eight against the NFC North.

The bottom line: The Eagles are rolling, but with a three game road trip starting next week in Seattle, we think the home side comes in a bit complacent here. Mitch Trubisky has been getting better with each outing for the Bears and we think he and his defensive unit will keep his team competitive late. Grab the points, play on CHICAGO.

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This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the OVER between the Atlanta Falcons and the Seattle Seahawks.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Atlanta has seen the total go OVER the number in interestingly, five of its last six against the NFC Wet and in 17 of its last 30 played on turf, while Seattle has seen the total go OVER the number in nine of its last 14 against clubs with winning records and in its last two at home when favored by three points or less.

The bottom line: It’s a big game for both playoff hopefuls. Neither defense has been particulary dominant of late. We think these offenses will take center stage on Monday as the numbers/trends do indeed point to the OVER as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Washignton Redskins.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense: 

As note that Washignton is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and still 17-12 ATS in its last 29 when playing the role of underdog, while New Orleans is interestingly just 1-3 ATS in its last four against the NFC East.

The bottom line: It’s hard to say anything negative about the Saints, as they’re obviously the hottest team in the league right now. Drew Brees has been his normal self and now he has a run game and decent defense behind him. But Washington is desperate and it won’t be giving up on the season until its officially mathematically eliminated. The Saints have been fantastic to this point, but even the best have to have a letdown at some point. And New Orleans is far from “the best” quite yet. With a game at the dynamic LA Rams up next, the Saints could very well be caught “looking ahead” here as well. Grab as many points as you can, play on the REDSKINS.

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This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Atlanta Falcons.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics:

As note that Dallas is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog and only 9-17 ATS in its last 27 on “field turf,” while Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last six against the NFC East and 4-2 ATS in its last six against the conference overall.

The bottom line: Dallas has come out of its bye and posted three straight wins, but looks set up for a letdown here with a look ahead game against division rival Philly at home next weekend. Conversely, the Falcons have lost four of their last five and will clearly be risking life and limb today to try and stay in the playoff race. All things considered, we feel this line could be a little higher, swinging the value to the home side. Play on ATLANTA.

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This is a 10* AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between the LA Chargers and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that LA has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last eight as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven poitns range and in four of its last six against the AFC South, while Jacksonville has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last 11 as a favorite and in 11 of its last 17 at home. 

The bottom line: At 3-5, clearly the Chargers have some work to do with eight games remaining. LA comes out of its bye week focused though and with a game at home against Buffalo next week, there’s no question that the Chargers could be back to .500 before you know it. Jacksonville on the other hand has bigger plans on its mind sitting at 5-3 right now. The Jags came out of their bye and easily handled the Bengals 23-7 last weekend, but should figure to have a much more difficult time against this rested Chargers offense. All signs point to the one going OVER as the game comes down the stretch.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the UNDER between the Seattle Seahawks and the Arizona Cardinals.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Seattle has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of its last seven as a road favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range and in eight of its last 14 against the division (including in both such circumstances this year), while Arizona has seen the total go UNDER the number in 13 of its last 20 at home (including in two of three this season) and in nine of its last 15 against the division (including in all three this year.)

The bottom line: This is a big game for Seattle, as it comes off a disappointing 17-14 home loss to Washington. With a game at home against Atlanta up next, clearly the Seahawks can not look past their potentially dangerous divisional opponent today. And for the Cards, without Carson Palmer under center, it’s only so far they can go with Drew Stanton leading the charge. Arizona will be leaning heavily on RB Adrian Peterson, who had 150 yards rushing in his team’s win in San Francisco last week. There’s no doubt that this one sets up perfectly for a lower-scoring UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Green Bay Packers.

The Packers have Brett Hundley under center and clearly he’s no Aaron Rodgers. Hundley is no Matthew Stafford either. However, the game of football is played with three different units and in our opinion, Green Bay has the advantage in two of those three phases. Clearly the Lions have the advantage on offense with Stafford. He looked pretty average in last week’s 20-15 loss to the Steelers though, putting up 423 passing yards, but not able to find the endzone at all. Detroit is one-dimensional as well, averaging just 82.1 YPG on the ground, ranked 28th. Hundley will be leaning heavily upon RB Aaron Jones today, who had 131 yards on 17 carries in his team’s 25-16 home loss to New Orleans two weeks ago. It was Hundley’s first action as starter and he didn’t look too great, going 12 of 25 for 87 yards, no TD’s and a pick. But with a week off to properly prepare and focus, clearly Hundley is going to perform better today. The PACKERS are 4-1 ATS in their last five in this series and we expect that strong trend of dominance to carry over here.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Tampa is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range and interestingly, 6-3 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of November, while New Orleans is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven games played in November and just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a home fav in the 3.5 to 7.5 points range.

The bottom line: Tampa opened the year by winning three of four, but has since dropped four straight. Clearly the “panic button” has been pressed by the Bucs at this point. It’s been the exact opposite for the Saints, who opened the season with two straight losses, before then rattling off five straight wins. Losing breeds determination, while winning often leads to complacency. Divisional games are always the “toughest” and they almost always “mean more” to the home side, but in this case we feel this one does indeed set up as a classic “trap” for the contented Saints. The Bucs are reeling, but won’t be going down without a fight. While we wouldn’t be completely shocked by the outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on TAMPA BAY.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on the Detroit Lions.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics:

As note that Pittsburgh is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 after two or more consecutive SU wins and just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 following a divisional contest, while Detroit is 2-0 ATS in its last two following its bye week and 2-1 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive losses. 

The bottom line: The Lions are the most “desperate” team, while Pittsburgh looks primed for a letdown here. Grab the points, play on the LIONS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Baltimore Ravens.

After beating the Falcons 20-17 on the road last week, the injured Dolphins look ripe for the picking by the hungry Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore enters off a 24-16 loss at Minnesota. Dolphins’ QB Jay Cutler went down with injury and backup Matt Moore led his team to the comeback victory. Th Fish though rank just 32nd in total offense with just 261.8 YPG, while looking a better on the defensive end on allowing 18.7. The Ravens averages just 18.3 PPG, while ranked in the middle of the pack defensively. Joe Flacco didn’t have much help last week, but he still managed to go 27 of 39 for 186 yards, one TD and no picks. Note that Miami is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 against teams with losing records and only 4-7 ATS in its last 11 following a divisional contest, while Baltimore is 2-1 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive SU losses. Despite his struggles this year, I’m giving Flacco the nod in this QB matchup and to us, that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the home side. Play on the RAVENS.

AAA Sports

This is 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the Washington Redskins and the Philadelphia Eagles.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant Over/Under ATS statistics:

As note that Washington has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four against the division, while Philadelphia has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and in 11 of its last 18 in front of the home town crowd.

The bottom line: When these team’s met on September 10th it was the Eagles that scored the 30-17 victory. Suffice it to say, we’re fully expecting a similar hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring UNDER once it’s all said and done here as well. 

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

First off, both teams have been playing to quite a few “unders” already this year. The “Law Of Averages” is flawed in many ways, but we’ve always been of the belief that lop-sided trends/numbers have a way of naturally correcting themselves over the short, mid and long-term. Pittsburgh has seen the total go UNDER the number in every game it’s played this year (including all four preseason games,) while Cincinnati has seen the total go UNDER in two straight and in all but one of its games this season. And when these teams played last, the total also went UNDER the number. That’s a ridiculous amount of UNDERs, a extremely lop-sided trend which we foresee being broken in a big way this weekend.

Also note that Cincinnati has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last ten after two or more consecutive SU wins and in three of its last four as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while Pittsburgh has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last eight as a home fav in the 3.5 to 7 points range.

This number is just a little low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER between the Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based on strong/relevant ATS trends and common sense:

As note that Indinapolis has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 12 against the division, while Tennessee has seen the total go UNDER the number in two of its last three when playing on Monday night.

The bottom line: Brissett has been decent for the Colts, but Indy is still going to win games this year by running the ball and coming up with some defensive stops. The Titans should have Mariota back under center, but we can also expect the home side to concentrate on running the ball first. QB issues for both teams, combined with these strong O/U trends make the UNDER the correct call for us in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER between the New York Giants and the Denver Broncos. 

The 0-5 Giants have seen the Over/under go 3-2, while the 3-1 Broncos have seen it go 3-1. New York has issues, mainly injuries to key offensive players. Most recently the Giants fell 27-22 to the Chargers at home. Denver enters off its bye, most recently beating Oakland 16-10 at home back on October 1st. So far the Giants average just 16 PPG, while conceding 24.4. The Broncos average 24.5 PPG and allow 18.5. Denver was firing on all cylinders before the break, but one wonders if chemistry will suffer from the extra week off? Note that New York has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of its last seven following an ATS loss, while Denver has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last seven following its bye week. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” where field position becomes paramount, rather than a high-scoring shoot-out “track meet.” Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the UNDER between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Carolina Panthers.

If you want a break down on how well Carson Wentz is doing this year, or if Cam Newton is bouncing back this season, then go ahead and read the game preview by Yahoo Sports or CBS Sports or NFL etc (by the way, both Wentz and Newton are having great years, leading their teams to 4-1 records to this point.) For the most part individual player matchups don’t really enter into our equation when handicapping games, unless it’s a top 3 player like Aaron Rodgers or LeBron James etc. Otherwise, we primarily are basing our picks on emotion levels from each side, the overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into the contest in question, as well as taking into consideration lopsided trends and numbers. It’s a short week and we think both sides are going to be a bit “gassed” here after the blistering start to the 2017/18 campaign. The Eagles just torched the Cardinals 34-7, while Carolina is off a high-scoring 27-24 win on the road at Detroit. That’s back-to-back big road victories for the Panthers, who knocked off the Pats 33-30 in New England previous to that. Can anyone say, “letdown spot?!” Note that Philadelhpia has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Carolina has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last seven as a home favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER between the Minnesota Vikings and the Chicago Bears.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

The Vikes are coming off a poor 14-7 loss to the Lions, while the Bears are coming off a 38-14 setback in Green Bay. It would be easy to pull the trigger on the “under” in this one. Why not? Minnesota QB Sam Bradford is questionable and if he does play, how effective will he be (rookie RB Dalvin Cook is also out with injury)? Things are going so well in Chicago, that it’s scrapped starting QB Mike Glennon and moved onto rookie Mitch Trubisky. And so far the strength of each team has been on the defensive side of the ball to this point of the season.

But the NFL is anything but predictable and we think these offenses will have their opportunities on the national stage. Note that Minnesota has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four games when the total in the contest is set between 35.5 and 42 points, while Chicago has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last eight off a loss against a division rival. This number is just a little low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the UNDER between the New England Patriots and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

It would be easy to simply choose the “over” here. Why not? The Pats are coming off a crushing 33-30 home loss to the Panthers and will be eager to jump back into the win column with another big offensive performance. The Bucs are rolling too, they came from behind to knock off the Giants 25-23 at home last weekend. But the NFL is anything but predictable and in our opinion, the overall “situation” lends itself to more of a lower-scoring defensive battle. It’s a short week and each team comes in off an epic battle. Both of clubs are going to be “gassed.” New England wouldn’t be normally “looking ahead,” but a game at division rival New York Jets is on deck, so that factor also comes into play here. Up next are two road games for the Bucs, so the possibility of a letdown tonight isn’t too hard to imagine for the home side either. Note that New England has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten games played on a grass field and in three of its last four Thursday night games, while Tampa Bay has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and in five of its last eight non-conference contests. This number is just a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the New York Jets.

We had a play on the Jets last weekend in their 20-6 upset win at home over the Dolphins. We feel this is another great situational spot to take advantage of as the Jacksonville Jaguars come to town, fresh off their big 44-7 destruction of the Ravens in England last weekend (we also had Jacksonville in that one.) But now the team transitions back across the pond and in our opinion, there’s no question that this sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the road-weary Jags. Jacksonville won 29-7 at Houston in Week 1, only to then “lay an egg” in Week 2 at home against Tennesse. And with another tough road game at Pittsburgh next weekend, it’s also not too hard to imagine the visiting side in some small way getting caught “looking ahead” to that much more difficult matchup. Also note that the Jags are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven when playing the role of favorite, while the Jets are 2-0 ATS in their last two as a home dog in the 3.5 to seven points range. A great “situational” play on the NEW YORK JETS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Arizona Cardinals.

Both teams are 1-1 SU. Dallas is also 1-1 ATS, while Arizona is so far 0-2 ATS. Are the Cowboys as bad as their 42-17 loss at Denver last week would indicate? Of course not. But we still believe Dallas has issues. Arizona on the other hand lost its Week 1 matchup in Detroit, only to then bounce back in Week 2 with a 16-13 victory over the Colts. It’s been a bit of a grind for Carson Palmer and company to open the year, but it’s time to open up the playbook with their first game in front of the home town crowd. Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliot and the Cowboys’ offensive line all had a poor game last week. But the Dallas defense was supposed to be a strength again this year. Broncos’ QB Trevor Simien simply isn’t as good as what his numbers would indicate from last week’s blowout victory. While we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we’re going to grab the points with the CARDINALS, as we believe that Arizona is the more complete team right now through all three phases of the game.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER between the Seattle Seahawks and the Tennessee Titans.

Seattle has so far struggled to put points on the board this year, but we think that finally changes this weekend. Tennessee will be looking to put the foot on the gas from start to finish as well as it tries to get the Hawks’ elite defensive unit on its heels. An underachieving Seahawks offense matches up against a Titans team which rebounded off an opening week loss to smash the Jaguars 37-16 in Week 2. As good as the Hawks have looked defensively so far this year, there’s no question that the unit faces a stiff test in this dynamic Tennessee offense, led by Marcos Mariota. Mariota has a stable of backs and dangerous receiving weapons as well. Seattle’s defense is going to be taxed today in trying to stop all three phases, as Mariota is a legitimate dual threat himself. And speaking of dual threats, the Hawks’ Russell Wilson clearly can’t be happy the way his offense has been performing to this point. It’s been the red-zone offense as well, as the team had to settle for FG’s in its 12-6 win over San Francisco last weekend. Note that both teams have seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last eight non-conference games as well. With each team opening up the playbook and pushing the pace from the opening kickoff until the final whistle, we’re expecting this one to fly OVER the number sooner rather than later.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER between the Houston Texans and the Cincinnati Bengals.

Houston fell 29-7 at home to Jacksonville in Week 1 and will be starting a rookie QB in this one. Cincinnati came out flat and fell 20-0 at home to the Ravens last weekend. When these teams met last year the Texans held on for a low-scoring 12-10 victory. These are two teams which normally struggle to put points on the board, but we feel this number is still a little low.

The Texans: QB Tom Savage was a disaster and was sacked six times, while fumbling it twice. DeShaun Watson was thrust into the spot-light and did well in the difficult position, going 12 of 22 for 102 yards, one TD and one INT. With a full week off to prepare to be starter, we look for Watson to come out much more focused and prepared. We also think the more pressing concern for Houston is on the defensive side of the ball. The offense was supposed to go through some growing pains, but the defense was supposed to be a strength. Overall the defense allowed 155 rushing yards, while producing no sacks. and focuring zero turnovers.

The Bengals: Cincinnati was terrible on both sides of the ball last week as well. Andy Dalton threw four INT’s and also fumbled the ball, finishing 16 of 31 for 170 yards. Dalton has an eltie group of receivers and a strong group at RB and there’s no possible way the unit could do any worse that in it did in Week 1. Suffice it to say, we absolutely expect the Bengals’ offense to bounce back here. And note that Cincinnati’s defensive numbers are skewed, as Baltimore was up 17-0 at half and completely changed its game-plan to a much more conservative style in the second stanza. 

The bottom line: Note that Houston has seen the total go OVER the number in its last two off a loss against a division rival, while Cincinnati has seen the total go OVER the number in its last two as a home fav in the 3.5 to seven points range. We like these offenses to bounce back and we believe each will struggle again defensively. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Denver Broncos.

We’ve always felt that the addage “defense wins championships,” pertained more to the gridiron than any other sport. While nothing is on the line except a Week 1 win or loss, we still feel that the Broncos’ elite defense will prove to be the main story-line in tomorrow’s summaries. 

LA: A new city, building and head coach. Same old QB in Philip Rivers though. Rivers will be handing off to one of the best RB’s in the league in Melvin Gordon and the offense should once again be among the league leaders on that side of the ball. Defense was a major issue last year though, giving up an average of 26.4 PPG. 

Denver: The defense was fourth in points allowed last year and first against the pass in allowing only 185.8 YPG through the air. LA’s offense revolves around the pass, which doesn’t look too good on the road at Mile High tonight. The team used its top draft picks on the defensive side of the ball as well, so the unit is stacked. The offense is once again a question mark, but both Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch will be given the green light to air it out tonight against the Chargers’ suspect secondary.

The bottom line: Note that LA is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 in games where the line is set between +3 and -3, while Denver is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 in the same position. Play on the BRONCOS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* WEEK 1 TOP EARLY PLAY on the Tennessee Titans.

There is of course an inherent risk when releasing a play weeks/months ahead of time, but in this case, we feel that Tennessee is the correct call in this Week 1 matchup. Oakland seems like a “trendy” pick in Week 1 after Derek Carr’s break out season. But Carr would break his leg in Week 15 last year and the Raiders would then predictably fall in the Wildcard round. Many think the signing of RB Marshawn Lynch will take Oakland to the next level, but we’re not convinced. Lynch is a year removed from the NFL and in his final season with the Seahawks, was visibly set back with nagging injuries. Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota is in our opinion, just as good as Carr in every respect. We also think the Titans have a big advantage in the RB department, with DeMarco Muarry, Derrick Henry and newcomer Khalfani Muhammad. Oakland is just 2-6 in Week 1 since 2009 and all signs point to another letdown here. Play on TENNESSEE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOP PLAY on the UNDER between the New England Patriots and the Atlanta Falcons. 

REASONING: The Patriots finished the regular season with the No. 1 ranked defense, one which conceded just 15.6 PPG. New England gave up just 16 points in its win over the Texans in the divisional round and then just 17 to the Steelers in the championship round. Atlanta would surrender just 20 points to the Seahawks in the divisional round and only 21 to Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in the conference championship. While defense has been the Falcons’ main weakness all year, the unit is clearly playing at its best at the most opportune of times. The Pats have Tom Brady, but clearly the team can ill afford to get into a “shootout” with the Falcons’ No. 1 ranked offense, so look for New England to control this one while on offense, so as to keep Matt Ryan and company off the field of play as much as possible. This is the highest total in Super Bowl history and it’s a little too large in our opinion. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

REASONING: Many sharps are likely on the Patriots today, but we think the Steelers can match pace with Tom Brady and company and while we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Ben Roethlisberger is as experienced as they come and he has the superior RB in Le’Veon Bell today, as well as the best receiver in Antonio Brown. The playing field is even on the offensive end in our opinion. The Pats have the better defense, but not by much. Pittsburgh looked sharp in its 18-16 win over the Chiefs last weekend, while it took New England a full half of football before finally kicking into full gear against the Texans. The Steelers will have their chances and that’s all they can ask for. Grab the points, play on PITTSBURGH.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Green Bay Packers and the Atlanta Falcons.

REASONING: What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams? For us it’s clearly Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan, two of the top passing QB’s in the league and of all time. Ryan leads the league’s top ranked offense, while Rodgers comes in on a massive hot streak and finished the regular season with 40 TD strikes, two more than Ryan. With the pressure on though, we think we’re going to see each team play it a bit more conservative tonight, trying to control the clock so as to keep the other side’s QB off the field of play for as long as possible. And from an Over/Under trend based stand point, they simply don’t get much better than this as the Packers have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while ATL has seen the total go UNDER in 35 of its last 60 games as a home fav in the 3.5 to seven points range. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports 

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Kansas City Chiefs.

REASONING: Are the trio of Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown the most feared in the league? There’s no doubt that they are a dynamic group, but something doesn’t add up when you look at Pittsburgh’s offensive stats, as the team averaged a pedestrian 24.9 PPG, ranked 11th overall. Defensively the Steelers concede an average of 20.4 PPG, ranked tenth. The Chiefs posted almost identical offensive numbers, 24.3 PPG which ranked them 13th. Defensively though the team was a cut above the Steelers, allowing 19.4 PPG, good for seventh overall. The Steelers beat the Chiefs 43-14 in Week 4 and suffice it to say, we think it’s payback time! KC is well rested and has a huge advantage of playing in front of the home town crowd tonight. Play on the CHIEFS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Dallas Cowboys.

REASONING: Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers have been on an unbelievable run to reach this point, but we think they’ll finally have a letdown here. The Cowboys aren’t the greatest in defending the pass, but overall the unit finished in the Top 5 in almost every statistical category. Rodgers won’t have Jordy Nelson in the lineup, which is very significant in this playoff game. His experience in these types of situations simply can’t be downplayed in our opinion. The Cowboys are dominating on both sides of the ball and come in refreshed and focused. Note that Green Bay is just 1-2 ATS in its last three on the road, while Dallas is 5-3 ATS at home. Lay the points, play on the COWBOYS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Houston Texans and the New England Patriots.

REASONING: Houston managed a win over the Raiders last week, but Oakland starting QB Derek Carr wasn’t playing after suffering a season ending injury in Week 16. Now the Texans travel from the safe and much warmer confines of home to play at frigid Foxborough against the league’s No. 1 defense. Note that the Pats have allowed an average of just 15.6 PPG. The Texans strength is clearly not on the offensive side of the ball. QB Brock Osweiler finished the regular season with a 15:16 TD:INT ratio. If the visitors have any shot at stealing this one, it’ll have to be on the back of RB LaMar Miller. Where Houston does dominate though is on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 20.5 per contest, which ranked 11th. For all of the reasons listed above, we’re expecting more of a “chess match,” rather than a wide-open “shootout.” Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Seattle Seahawks.

REASONING: You’d be hard pressed to find a team with as much playoff experience as the Seahawks over the last five years. Atlanta hasn’t won a playoff game since 2012. The Hawks come in with a ton of momentum after dismantling the Lions 26-6 last week. The defense allowed just two field goals and QB Russell Wilson finished 23 of 30 for 224 yards and two TD’s. Seattle finished the regular season allowing only 18.2 PPG, ranked third overall. Will “rest lead to rust” for Atlanta? Possibly. The Falcons finished with the No. 1 offense in the league with an average of 33.8 PPG. The defense though was a disaster, allowing an average of 25.4 PPG, ranked 27th overall. Seattle is too deep and experienced and while we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the SEAHAWKS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the New York Giants and the Green Bay Packers.

REASONING: New York can ill afford to get into a “shootout” with the red hot Aaron Rodgers, so we’re expecting the visitors to play it a bit conservative on the offensive end. And by that we mean we’re expecting Eli Manning and the Giants to try and control the clock as much as possible so as to limit the amount of time that Rodgers is even on the field of play. New York owns the second ranked defense, one which concedes just 17.8 PPG. When these teams met in Week 5, Rodgers was held to 259 yards passing, along with two TD’s and two INT’s. Manning had just 199 yards, one TD and no INT’s. Green Bay would win 23-16 in the end and we’re expecting a similar final outcome here as well. Note that New York has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of eight as an underdog this year, while Green Bay has seen the total go UNDER in four of six this season as a home fav of 3.5 to seven points. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Miami Dolphins and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

REASONING: Both teams come into the playoffs on hot streaks, as Miami won three of its last four, while Pittsburgh ran off seven straight victories to end the regular season. Miami managed a 30-15 home win over the Steelers in Week 6, the Dolphins would go on to hold Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger to 189 yards with one TD and two INT. Miami had huge success with RB Jay Ajayi, who went for 204 yards against the Steelers. There’s no question what the game plan will be for Miami’s offense today, especially with competent backup Matt Moore under center for the visitors now. In the end the Fish averaged just 22.7 PPG this season, ranked 17th, while allowing 23.8. Pittsburgh is out for a little revenge today, note that it finished averaging 24.9 PPG, while allowing 20.4. We’re expecting a similar combined final score at the end of this one as when these two first met earlier in the season, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between Oakland and Houston.

REASONING: Oakland’s worst nightmare came true when starting QB Derek Carr was knocked out for the rest of the season with a leg injury in Week 16. That means that the team turns to rookie Connor Cook. Clearly the pressure will be tremendous for the young man, so the Raiders will be leaning heavily on RB Latavius Murray from start to finish. Fortunately for Oakland, it faces one of the worst offenses in the league, as the Texans averaged just 17.4 PPG. QB Brock Osweiler has struggled in the starting role this year, he has a poor 15:16 TD:INT ratio. The home side will also be looking to establish its run game while on offense, so be prepared to see a heavy dose of LaMar Miller, who sat out the final two games of the regular season with an ankle injury. Neither team can afford to make a mistake on offense, so both of these QB’s will be on a leash. We expect this one to sneak UNDER the posted number once it’s all said and done.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NFC SOUTH TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

Note that New Orleans has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of six against teams with winning records and in five of eight when playing the role of underdog, while Atlanta has seen the total go UNDER in ten of its last 14 off a divisional contest and in two of three off a win against a division rival.

The bottom line: We think these two normally high-scoring teams play to more of a “chess match,” this afternoon, where field position ends up being a deciding factor. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Washignton Redskins.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that New York is just 1-3 ATS this year in revenging a loss against an opponent and only 2-4 ATS on the road, while Washington is 4-3 ATS at home and 4-0 ATS against teams with winning records.

The bottom line: The Giants will be resting the majority of their starters today, as win or lose, the team is locked into its current playoff position. The Redskins still have a shot at a Wildcard, but need to win today. We’re expecting the home side to win big. Play on WASHINGTON.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on the Dallas Cowboys.

REASONING: Detroit looked horrible in its loss in New York last week as QB Matt Stafford’s offense posted just six points. If the Lions have had one weakness this year, it’s clearly been their play away from friendly confines where they’ve gone just 3-4 this season. Dallas has already earned a first-round bye, but won’t be rolling over and will clearly want to finish off the season on a high note. Dallas has struggled against the pass this year, but catches a break in that Stafford’s offense isn’t what it used to be in year’s past. Dallas fell to the Giants for a second time this season, but then bounced back with a 26-20 win over the Bucs on Sunday Night Football last week. QB Dak Prescott was 32 of 36 for 279 yards, while Ezekiel Elliot had 159 yards and a TD. Note that Detroit is just 3-4 ATS on the road this year and only 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games played in the month of December, while Dallas is 4-3 ATS in its last seven in front of the home town crowd. We don’t see DALLAS taking the foot off the gas at this point of the season, so lay the points with confidence.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER between the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs.

REASONING: This is an important divisional battle and as such, we’re expecting a more wide-open affair and believe these teams will combine to do just enough to push this one OVER at the end of the night. Both teams will  be hungry today as each enters off losses. Denver fell 16-3 at home to the Patriots, while KC lost 19-17 to Tennessee last weekend. Broncos’ QB Trevor Siemian will be especially motivated after stalling the last two games. When these teams met back in Week 12 though, Siemian would throw three TD’s, while Chiefs’ QB Alex Smith had one in KC’s eventual 30-27 OT victory. The Broncos get the job done on the defensive end, allowing only 18.4 PPG. But Denver needs to put points on the board if its going to have any shot at defending its title this year. KC had a 17-7 halftime lead last week and then stumbled in the second half. The Chiefs look to rebound, note that they’re 15th overall on offense with 22.8 PPG, while allowing 19.6, good for eighth overall. Note though that Denver has seen the total go OVER the number in all four games this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while KC has seen the total go OVER in three of its last four when the total in the contest is set between 35.5 and 42 points. Each are desperate for a win and both are looking to erase their respective collapses from a week ago. It’s a perfect set of situational circumstances which we believe will lead to a higher-scoring OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* X-MAS DAY PRESENT on the Baltimore Ravens.

REASONING: This is essentially a contest for the AFC North Title. If the Steelers win, they go to the playoffs and win the division. If the Ravens win, they have to beat the Bengals on the road next weekend to claim the title. Baltimore comes off a 27-26 win over Philadelphia, while the Steelers held on for a 24-20 win over the Bengals last weekend. Both teams enter into this one on top form, but if recent history is any precedence, then the Ravens have to be loving their chances today, as they’ve won four straight and six of the last seven in the series. In the first game against the Steelers this year, QB Joe Flacco was 18 of 30 for 241 yards, one TD and a pick. The Ravens average 347.1 YPG on offense and are also ranked fifth overall in yards allowed per game at (312.6). For the most part the Steelers have been solid on both sides of the ball this year, but note that QB Ben Roethlisberger completed just 50 percent of his passes for 264 yards in the first game against the Ravens. And note that Baltimore is 4-0 ATS against the divsional already this season, while Pittsburgh is only 1-2 ATS this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. The RAVENS always play the Steelers tough and suffice it to say, we’re expecting another hard-fought battle that will likely come down to whoever has his hands on the ball last. Grab the points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL SUPER-BLOWOUT on the OVER between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Houston Texans.

REASONING: Cincinnati has been eliminated from playoff contention, but the team won’t be going down without a fight today and it will be relishing the role of spoiler tonight as Houston is still chasing a postseason berth. Last week the Bengals fell in a hard-fought 24-20 setback to the Steelers, while the Texans held on for a 21-20 win over Jacksonville. The Bengals’ Andy Dalton will be especially motivated in our opinion today. His team was just eliminated from playoff contention and he’s had a “down” year overall. It is the first time in six seasons that the Bengals will miss the playoffs. Dalton had just 157 yards, no TD’s and an INT last week and clearly he will be looking to end the season on a positive note and to bounce back big. And it’s basically do or die for the Texans tonight, a victory will almost assuredly mean that they’ll be headed to the playoffs for a second straight year. Backup Houston QB Tom Savage was 23 of 36 for 260 yards last week. Note that Cincinnati has seen the total go OVER the number in three of four this season following a divisional contest, while Houston has seen the total go OVER in three of four off a win against a division rival and in four of six against teams with losing records. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills.

REASONING: Miami comes in off a 34-13 beatdown road win over the Jets, while Buffalo smashed the Browns 33-13. When these teams played back in Week 7, the Fish managed the high-scoring 28-25 victory. RB Jay Ajayi had 214 rushing yards in that one for Miami, while Tyrod Taylor finished with 221 yards passing and a TD for Buffalo. For a couple of different reasons, we’re expecting a much more defensive affair in the re-match. Despite the big offensive outburst against a horrible Jets’ secondary, Miami still averages just 22.5 PPG, which ranks it 17th. Backup QB Matt Moore filled in admirably in place of the injured Ryan Tanehill, but we think he’ll have a much harder time on the road in what will clearly be a very hostile environment. It should be noted that Miami did look pretty good on the defensive end last week with three sacks and two INT’s. We can expect to see a heavy dose of Bills’ RB LeSean McCoy today as he’s putting together a career season, posting 1,129 rushing yards so far. The Bills have averaged 25.6 PPG so far, while conceding 22.4, ranked 14th in the league. We’re expecting both teams to put an added emphasis on the run game while on offense and look for this one to indeed fall UNDER the number once it’s all said and done.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Green Bay Packers.

REASONING: Green Bay needs to win its last two games for a shot at the postseason and it’ll be gunning for a fifth straight victory overall. We think Aaron Rodgers and the home side find a way to get the job done at the end of the night against this patchwork Minnesota Vikings team. The Packers most recently beat Chicago, while the Vikes enter having lost seven of their last nine after falling to the Colts last week. Minnesota is ripe for the picking, last week’s 34-6 loss to Indinapolis was its worst performance of the year. RB Adrian Peterson returned and looked horrible, going 22 yards on six carries and a lost fumble. The Vikes would need a miracle at this point to make the postseason. Rodgers was 19 of 31 for 252 yards, but had no TD’s last week. Rodgers though hasn’t thrown an INT since mid November, a span of five games. And note that the Vikes are just 1-4 ATS their last five on the road, while the Pack is 5-2 ATS in its last seven at home in this series. Over his last five games, Rodgers has ten TD’s and no INT’s. It’s hard to imagine the deflated an undermanned Vikes putting up much of a fight at Lambeau this afternoon. Lay the points, play on GREEN BAY.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER in the Carolina Panthers and Washington Redskins.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Carolina has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 games played in the month of December, while Washington has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four when playing on a Monday night.

The bottom line: Carolina has been relegated to playing spoiler at this point of the season, but with nothing to play for, we think the team will simply go through the motions today. Washington doesn’t want to turn this one into a track meet, so expect the home side to control the clock and be as effecient as possible. All signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the OVER between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Dallas Cowboys.

REASONING: Both teams are jockeying for a playoff spot and we’re expecting each to open up the playbook today. Tampa comes in off a 16-11 home win over New Orleans, while Dallas fell 10-7 on the road to New York on Sunday. Clearly neither side can be happy with the way its offense played and as such, we’re expecting a much more dynamic game tonight. Tampa averages 22.5 PPG, ranked 18th and allows 22.8, ranked 16th. Dallas averages 26.2 PPG, ranked sixth and allows 18.3, ranked fifth. But Dallas has struggled to defend the pass all year, conceding an average of 268 passing yards per game (ranked 28th). We expect Jameis Winston to be given the “green light” to air it out from start to finish. And there’s no question that Dak Prescott and company will be looking to bounce back after last week’s debacle and take advantage of this suspect Bucs’ secondary. Note that Tampa has seen the total go OVER in three of four already this year following a divisional contest, while Dallas has seen the total go OVER in all three of its home games this season as a favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range. This one has the feel of a shootout rather than a chess match, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER between the Detroit Lions and the New York Giants.

REASONING: This is a big game for both of these 9-4 teams. The Lions are aiming for their sixth straight win, most recently besting the Bears 20-17 last week. New York managed a 10-7 victory over the Cowboys last Sunday night. Neither can be happy on how it performed on the offensive end and as such, we’re expecting each to open up the playbook today and for this total to indeed fly OVER the number once it’s all said and done. So far the Lions average 22.7 PPG, which ranks them 17th in the league, while the defense concedes 20.6, ranked tenth. QB Matthew Stafford has almost 3,450 yards and a 22:7 TD to INT ratio. New York only averages 19.6 PPG, ranked 25th, while the defense concedes 18.8 PPG, ranked seventh. Eli Manning has 3,290 passing yards with a 23:13 TD to INT ratio. Note that Detroit has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after scoring 20 points or less, while New York has seen the total go OVER in five of its last six after scoring ten points or less. These are a couple of mediocre offenses going up against a couple of above average defenses and that’s why this number is so low. But we think the overall situation lends itself to a higher-scoring shootout, rather than a lower-scoring chess match. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the LA Rams.

REASONING: LA has many issues and after getting blown out 42-14 at home by Atlanta last Sunday, the team would fire head coach Jeff Fisher. Suffice it to say, we’re expecting the rest of the team to respond in a big way tonight. Don’t get us wrong, we don’t think that the Rams are going to be able to suddenly “throw a switch” now and become a fantastic team, but we do think that in this first game back, everyone on the field today will be shaken up by the drastic measure and we’re expecting that focus to translate into some positive production. When these teams met earlier in the year, LA managed a 9-3 win. At 8-4, the Seahawks have the division wrapped up for the most part, so it’s not too hard to imagine the home side coming in a bit complacent here as well. Seattle’s defense has been great this year, once again in the top 10, but the offense has been hit-or-miss all season and it certainly looked poor in last week’s 38-10 loss in Green Bay, one which QB Russell Westbrook threw a career high five INT’s. Note that LA is 5-2 ATS in its last seven against the division, while Seattle is just 3-6 ATS as a favorite this year. We aren’t going to predict an outright upset, but do think that the determined visitors can keep this one competitive. Play on the RAMS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on the New Orleans Saints.

REASONING: New Orleans is sitting two games back in the NFC South and a loss today would essentially be the “nail in the coffin” for the Saints. While we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. New Orleans will be desperate after losing three of its last four, most recently falling to the surging Lions 28-13. QB Drew Brees had an “off” night, but overall the veteran has been spectacular this season and we’re expecting a big time bounce back performance this afternoon. Tampa Bay on the other hand is poised for a letdown after four straight wins in our opinion. Most recently Tampa stormed back to take a seven point win in San Diego, QB Jameis Winston going for 280 yards, a TD and a pick. Note that New Orleans is already 2-1 ATS against the division and a perfect 4-0 ATS on the road, while Tampa is just 2-4 ATS at home this year. Grab as many points as you can, play on NEW ORLEANS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Arizona Cardinals.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics:

As note that Washington is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a road dog of three points or less and just 1-3 ATS in its last four “dome” games, while Arizona is 6-2 ATS in its last eight played in the month of December, just 2-1 ATS after two or more consecutive losses and interestingly, a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five against the NFC East.

The bottom line: This is a must win game for both teams to keep their already extremely slim playoff hopes alive, as each will essentially need to win-out for any chance whatsoever. We think that home field advantage can’t be overlooked in this position, so we’re laying the points. Play on ARIZONA.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Washington Redskins and the Arizona Cardinals.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Washington has interestingly seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five against the NFC West and in four of its last six “dome” games, while Arizona has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of its last eight games played in the month of December, in six of eight as a favorite this year and in all six games that it’s played in front of the home town crowd thus far.

The bottom line: The Redskins feature one of the best passing attacks in the game, but we think the unit will struggle on the road in this hostile environment. It’s a big game for both teams, as each will essentially need to win-out to have any shot at a playoff berth. We’re expecting this intense focus and determination to lend itself to a classic lower-scoring defensive battle. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the New York Giants and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that New York has seen the total go OVER the number in ten of its last 16 against teams with winning records and in 17 of its last 29 games when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, while Pittsburgh has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last seven as a home favorite of 3.5 to seven points and in seven of its last 11 non-conference contests.

The bottom line: With Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger going head-to-head, we’re expecting a classic shootout as each of these veteran pivots will be given the green light to air it out today. Play the OVER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between Buffalo and Oakland.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Buffalo has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last six road games as an underdog of three points or less and in 16 of its last 23 as an underdog overall, while Oakland has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last eight games played in the month of December.

The bottom line: This is a big game for Buffalo, which can ill afford to turn this one into a “track meet.” We can expect the visitors to try and manage this one while on offense, so as to limit the time that Derek Carr and company have on the field of play. All signs point to this one sneaking UNDER the number once it’s all said and done.

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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Baltimore Ravens.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant ATS statistics:

As note that Miami is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of December and interestingly, just 1-4 ATS against the AFC North, while Baltimore is 7-2 ATS in its last nine off a win against a division rival and 4-1 ATS against the AFC East.

The bottom line: The Dolphins have reeled off five straight wins, but we think are ripe for a letdown here. The Ravens play in New England next weekend, meaning that this game becomes almost a “do-or-die” scenario for the home side. We’re laying the points, play on BALTIMORE.

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This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on the Minnesota Vikings.

REASONING: Dallas has been unbelievably impressive obviously, as the combination of a rookie phenom QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliot have the Cowboys at 10-1. Minnesota’s run game has been non-existent this season and QB Sam Bradford has been just adequate. The Vikes rank dead last in almost every offensive category. The defense and special teams have been exceptional though and are the main reason that Minnesota is 6-5 and still very much in playoff contention. Desperation breeds motivation and success often leads to complacency. So far everything has gone the Cowboys’ way this season, but we think the desperate home side will give them everything they can handle today. The Vikes have 28 sacks, which rank seventh in the NFL, and the secondary has 12 INT’s, ranked third. Bradford continues to be extremely effecient, as he’s completed 71.3 percent of his passes, with 12 TD’s to just three picks. Also note that Bradford catches a bit of a break today, as the Dallas pass rush is tied for 25th in the league in sacks. The Cowboys are just 1-3 ATS in their last four “Thursday night” games (including 0-1 this season), while the Vikings are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 at home, including 4-1 ATS this season and 11-6 ATS in their last 17 against teams with winning records. Bradford has been given the green light to go deep and he’s facing the perfect defense to do it against. Head coach Mike Zimmer is a defensive specialist and we think the Vikes can put significant pressure on Prescott tonight. Grab the points, play on the VIKINGS.

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This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Green Bay Packers.

REASONING: The Packers have lost four straight and will be risking life and limb today in trying to secure a victory. The Eagles come in off a 26-15 road loss to Seattle and we think they’re primed for another letdown tonight. The panic button has been pressed in Green Bay, but their is a silver lining in that the team still sits just two games shy of a tie atop the NFC North standings. Green Bay’s defense ranks in the lower third in passing yards allowed, but QB Aaron Rodgers continues to find ways to get the job done, he’s ranked eighth in the league in passing. In the Packers’ 42-24 loss to the Redskins, Rodgers had 351 yards passing and three TD’s. Philadelphis is now in last place in the NFC East, and the playoffs are almost assuredly out of the question at this point. The defense has been the Eagles strong point, conceding an average of just 18.7 PPG thus far. But clearly that unit is going to be tested by a motivated Rodgers this evening. Rookie QB Carson Wentz has looked pretty ordinary of late and I think he’ll have troubles against this Packers secondary which will clearly be playing with a chip on its shoulder after the recent stretch of poor play. Note that Green Bay is 5-3 ATS in its last eight against the NFC East, while Philadelphia is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven when playing the role of favorite. Grab as many points as you can, play on GREEN BAY.

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Indianapolis Colts.

REASONING: We played this one early and got 53.5. The total has since dropped to around 48 after it was learned that Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck was sidelined in the concussion protocol. If you were unable to get down before the line move, don’t worry, we still love this play. And for obvious reasons. When Luck went down last year, Matt Hasselbeck filled in seamlessly as he was in his third season as the team’s backup QB. Scott Tolzien was just signed in March and has never taken a regular-season snap for the Colts. He also saw limited time in the preseason and didn’t look overly impressive anyways. The home side is going to have to fall back on its run game today to take the pressure of Tolzien. And we’re now expecting Pittsburgh to try and “manage” this one while on offense. Note that the Steelers have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of five on the road this year, while the Colts have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last six at home. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the Washignton Redskins and the Dallas Cowboys.

REASONING: We jumped on this line early and got 48.5 and its since gone as high as 51.5 in some places. Regardless, we think these two normally high-scoring teams will have a bit of a letdown on the short week and on the national stage. Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott are leaders of two of the best offenses in the league. Neither team is extremely adept on the defensive end either. Washington plays with revenge today though after falling 27-23 in the first matchup from Landover. As primarily a “situationally based” handicapping service, these are exactly the types of matchups that we’re on the look out for. And from an O/U trend based stand point, they simply don’t get much stronger than this as the Redskins have seen the total go UNDER the number in two of three this year after two or more consecutive SU wins and in two of three away from friendly confines, while Dallas has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last six after two or more consecutive SU wins and in 12 of its last 20 in front of the home town crowd. We’re expecting an all out war on Thursday afternoon, where field position becomes paramount for success. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a “track meet,” play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* play on the OVER between the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions.

REASONING: These division rivals are both in the hunt for a playoff spot and enter into this one with idential records, each going 6-4 SU/ATS and 4-6 O/U. Minnesota comes in off 30-24 win over Arizona this past weekend, while the Lions have now won two in a row and five of their last six after holding on for a 26-19 victory over the Jaguars at home. When these teams played on November 6th, Detroit scored the 22-16 OT victory. Suffice it to say, we’re expecting a much higher-scoring affair this time around. Last week Vikes’ QB Sam Bradford was 20 of 28 for 169 yards and a TD. Defense and special teams for Minnesota would also both go on to score TD’s. So far the Vikes are third defensively and last in the offensive department. Detroit keeps finding ways to win, as note that it’s been down in all ten games this year in the fourth quarter. TE Eric Ebron had three passes for 70 yards and a TD last week. QB Matt Stafford has 18 TD’s and five picks with a 101.2 QB rating overall this season. Detroit so far ranks 25th in total offense and 19th on the defensive end. It’s important to note though that Minnesota has seen the total go OVER the number in its last two in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Detroit has seen the total go OVER in its last three “Thursday” contests and in four of its last six as a home fav of three points or less. This one is just a little bit low, play the OVER.

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This is a 10* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between the Green Bay Packers and the Washington Redskins.

REASONING: Green Bay is 4-5 and many are wondering if QB Aaron Rodgers’ personal problems are disrupting his on field play. Rodgers has looked decent at times this year, but also very pedestrian in others. His run game has been non-existent though, so we’re expecting the visitors put an added emphasis in establishing the ground attack this evening. Someone has to step up and alleviate some of the pressure off Rodgers, so there’s no question in our minds that this will have to be Green Bay’s game-plan coming in. James Starks had 33 yards on seven carries after returning from injury last week, but with that awkward outing out of the way, expect the veteran to be more productive in his second try. Washington comes in off a satisfying victory over the Vikes, not allowing Minnesota to score a single point over the final 30 minutes of play. The Redskins did engineer four scoring drives in the second half, all which resulted in field goals though. Note that Green Bay has seen the total go UNDER the number in two of its last three after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Washington has seen the total go UNDER in two of its last three against teams with losing records. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts.

REASONING: Indianpolis won the first game between these teams back on October 30th, leaving Nashville with a 34-26 victory. This time around we’re expecting more of a defensive battle. Colts’ QB Andrew Luck had 353 yards and three scores, while counterpart Marcus Mariota had 232 yards and two TD’s. After starting the year 1-3, the Titans are now 4-2 their last six. Last week Tennessee scored 47 points in its 22 point win over the struggling Packers. It was the most points the Titans had scored since 2009 and suffice it to say, we’re expecting a letdown from the unit this week. Like Tennessee, Indianapolis struggled early but has looked better of late, winner of two of its last three and entering this out of its bye. The Colts sit just two games behind Houston for the division lead with seven games left to go, so there’s still plenty of time to make a run at the title, but first things first. Note that the Titans have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four played on “field turf,” while the Colts have seen the total go UNDER in 12 of their last 20 in front of the home town crowd. We’re expecting these division rivals to slug it out and for this one to indeed sneak UNDER the number at the end of the afternoon.

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This is a 10* play on the OVER between the Arizona Cardinals and the Minnesota Vikings.

REASONING: Arizona was the highest scoring team in the league last year and with Carson Palmer successfully returning from injury, the team was supposed to have picked up right where it left off entering the 2016/17 campaign. Minnesota lost offensive stars Adrian Peterson and Teddy Bridgewater, but still managed to get out to a 5-0 start. The Cards simply haven’t lived up to expectations, while Minnesota is now in a free fall, having lost four straight. Clearly both teams are not where they’d hoped to be at this point of the season and we think this one all adds up to a perfect “situation” to exploit. So far each has seen the Over/Under go 3-6 on the year. So while each has struggled to put points on the board, we believe that the stage is now set for a more wide open affair as these two desperate teams open up the playbook and push the pace from start to finish. It’s a big game for both, as a victory would keep their respective seasons alive in the hunt for a playoff spot, while a loss will almost assuredly spell doom. This play is not about the contestants on the field of play, but about the “situation.” Also note that Arizona has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in 12 of its last 20 on the road, including in all three this year, while Minnesota has seen the total go OVER in two of its last three after two or more consecutive SU losses. Play the OVER.

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the Buffalo Bills and the Cincinnati Bengals.

REASONING: Here are two more teams which sit on the cusp as we enter the half way point of the season, with Buffalo at 4-5 and the Bengals at 3-5-1. A win will help these teams’ chances for a wild card spot, while a loss will likely mean looking ahead to next season. Unlike the Cards and the Vikes though, we’re expecting much more of a defensive battle today as these two desperate sides fight it for an elusive victory. Buffalo enters rested after its bye week, losing 32-25 to Seattle in Week 9, while Cincinnati comes in off a crushing 21-20 road loss to the Giants. The bottom line is, these two offenses have struggled with consistency all year for the most part, but the defensive units have been solid. Note that Buffalo concededs 22.6 PPG, ranked 13th overall, while Cincinnait allows 23.3, ranked 18th. And note that the Bills have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five as a road dog of three points or less, while the Bengals have seen the total go UNDER in seven of their last 11 home games where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between the Green Bay Packers and the Tennessee Titans.

REASONING: Tennessee is just 4-5 on the year, but it’s been putting up a good fight almost every week. In fact, it’s been a shootout almost every single time the team has stepped on the field, with seven of its nine games having gone OVER the number, including in six straight. But at 4-4, clealry the Packers are not where they’d hoped they’d be at this point of the season, with many pundits picking the team to come out on top of the NFC. This is a big game for both sides, one which could set the tone for the remainder of the year and as such, we’re expecting more of a “chess match,” than a “shootout.” Tennessee can ill afford to let this one go either with back-to-back tough road games at Indianapolis and Chicago respectively before its bye week. And for Green Bay, it will need to set the tone this afternoon, with three straight away from friendly confines on deck, with games at Washington and Philadelphia respectively. From a situational/motivational and scheduling stand point, this one does indeed set up perfectly for a lower-scoring affair. Green Bay’s offense is struggling and you have to look no further than QB Aaron Rodgers, who hasn’t looked like himself over the last month and a half. We’ll caution in reading too much into the Titan’s recent turnaround, as vicotries have come against lightweights, Miami, Cleveland and Jacksonville. Note that Green Bay has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 14 against teams with losing records and in three of its last four after two or more consecutive losses, while Tennessee has seen the total go UNDER in six of its last ten non-conference games. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between the Tennessee Titans and the San Diego Chargers.

REASONING: Both teams have seen the total go OVER the number in six of eight games this year, but we think the conditions are now right for more of a lower-scoring defensive battle in this particular matchup. Tennessee has won two of its last three with recent victories over Miami, Cleveland and Jacksonville, while San Diego looks to bounce back after a 27-19 loss to Denver last weekend. The Titans have been playing “over their heads,” as they’ve scored at least 26 points in four consecutive games for the first time in 13 years. QB Marcus Mariota has gotten progressively better and he’s been the beneficiary of a strong run game, last week DeMarco Murray has 123 yards and a major score off 21 carries. San Diego will also be leaning heavily on its star RB today, last week Melvin Gordon had 111 yards against a tough Broncos’ line. Note that Tennessee has seen the total go UNDER the number in both games that it’s played this year off a win against a conference rival and in ten of its last 17 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, while San Diego has seen the total go UNDER in six of its last ten home games when the total is set between 42.5 and 49 points. We’re banking on each side coming out with a concerted plan to establish the run game throughout, a factor which will ultimatley help in pushing this number UNDER the number once it’s all said and done.

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This is a 10* NFC SOUTH TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

REASONING: The Falcons are the league’s highest scoring team with an average of almost 33 PPG. The Bucs have been poor defensively, which obviously would lead many to make a play on the OVER in this particular matchup. But we think the conditions are right for a lower-scoring “chess match,” rather than another high-scoring “shootout.” We base most of our Over/Under picks on “situations” and trends and that’s the case with this one. Divisional contests are always the most important and in the wide open NFC South, this game clearly has big implications for both sides. Atlanta is playing with revenge after losing the season opener to Tampa Bay, a game which it had control of for the most part until a late collapse allowed the Bucs to successfully come from behind. ATL’s weakness is on the defensive side of the ball, but clearly the unit catches a break in facing Tampa’s middle of the road offense. It’s a short week and both teams are going to be “gassed” tonight, as Atlanta comes in off an OT win over the Packers, while Tampa was unable to hold on to a late lead in a disheartening setback in Oakland last week. Also note that Atlanta has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of its last ten as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Tampa has seen the total go UNDER in 11 of its last 16 as an underdog in the same points range. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* NFC EAST TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys.

Setting the scene: Divisional contests are always the most heated and there’s no question that tonight’s game has all the makings of a classic. The 4-2 Philadelphia Eagles are in Dallas to take on the 5-1 Cowboys and we think that everything points to a shootout between Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott.

Philadelphia: The Eagles broke a two-game slide with a 21-10 win over the Vikings last week. Wentz’ line looked great as it would hold Minnesota’s top ranked defense “sackless” on the night. Wentz looked shaky early, throwing two INT’s, but the rookie would recover to throw for 138 yards a TD. 

Dallas: The Cowboys have won five in a row after dropping their season opener 20-19 to New York. Prescott has gone 125 of 182 for 1,486 yards, seven TD’s and just one INT this season. 

The bottom line: Note that Philadelphia has seen the total go OVER the number in ten of its last 17 on the road (including in both games this year), in seven of its last 12 against the division and in four of its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Dallas has seen the total go OVER the number in nine of its last 14 against the division and in its last two following its bye-week. We believe these division rivals will post just enough production to push this total OVER the number as the game comes down the stretch.

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This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tennessee Titans.

Reasoning: These struggling divison foes get ready to play on the short-week and each is desperate for a victory. Neither has been very good on the defensive end, with Jacksonville allowing an average of 26.7 PPG and Tennessee conceding 23 PPG, but they’ve also both been horrible on the offensive side, with the Jags averaging 19.5 PPG (ranked 25th) and the Titans posting 20.9 PPG. Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota has played better than Jacksonville’s Blake Bortles, but he’s also been the beneficiariy of one of the better run games, as Titans’ RB DeMarco Murray had 107 yards and a TD last week and now has 633 yards with four TD’s overall, ranking him third in the league. Note that Jacksonville has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Tennessee has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last ten following a divisional contest. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the Houston Texans and the Denver Broncos. 

REASONING: Houston upset Indianapolis 26-23 in OT last week. The Texans erased a 14 point deficit with less than three minutes to play to force the extra quarter. It was a big emotional win over a division rival, setting the visitors up perfectly for a letdown this week. Houston’s offense is bad, it averages just 18 PPG, ranked 31st in the NFL. If ever Denver was going to be “up” to play an opponent, it would surely be against Houston and its QB Brock Osweiler, who left the Broncos in the offseason. Denver has lost two straight and will be in a foul mood tonight and we’re expecting its Super Bowl winning defense to be on top form. Note that the Broncos allow an average of 18 PPG, ranked seventh overall. But the reason Denver has dropped two in a row has not been because of its defensive play, but rather its been because of the struggling offense, which could only post 13 points against a poor Chargers defense last week. Trevor Siemian returned from injury and was unspectacular, finishing with 230 yards and a TD. Houston’s defense has been its strength, allowing an average of just 21.2 PPG, ranked 12th overall. Note that Houston has seen the total go UNDER the number in nine of its last 14 against teams with winning records, while Denver has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 following a divisional contest. Neither of these QB’s can produce unless his run game is “firing on all cylinders,” so each side will be looking to establish the ground attack throughout. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a “track meet.” Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on the Philadelphia Eagles.

REASONING: Both Minnesota and Philadelphia are better than we thought they’d be this year. The Vikings especially have been impressive considering the injuries to starting QB Teddy Bridgewater and to starting RB Adrian Peterson. QB Sam Bradford has been brilliant so far through four games for the Vikes, he’s yet to throw an INT. Minnesota comes into this one a perfect 5-0, but we think that rest is going to lead to rust for the Vikes, who are coming off their bye-week. Some times a bye week is very beneficial, but other times it can slow down the chemistry of a healthy team and that’s the scenario we see playing out today. Carson Wentz and the Eagles will be in a foul mood after last week’s lacklustre 27-20 setback to Washington. Minnesota has the No. 1 defense in the league, but Philadelphia is right behind, ranked third overall. Minnesota has been an ATS covering machine over the last calendar year, but we think the conditions are now finally right for a letdown. Grab as many points as you can, play on the EAGLES.

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This is a 10* SITUATIONAL SHOCKER on the Miami Dolphins.

REASONING: We had a play on Miami in its 30-15 win over the Steelers. At 2-4, the Dolphins chances of even making the playoffs are still extremely slim, but at 1-5, they would have already been looking ahead to next year. Now Miami has something to build off and another upset this week and especially against a division rival would put the Fish back in the conversation at the very least. Buffalo has rattled off four straight victories, but if ever a team was set up for a “trap” or a “letdown,” or being caught “looking ahead,” then this is it! After four straight victories, Buffalo comes to Miami, knowing that it has a huge showdown at New England next week, followed by a game at home against the Seahawks, before then enjoying its bye. We think there are enough situational factors working in favor of Miami today to warrant a play of this size and while we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Play on the DOLPHINS.

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