In game 5 of this series  in Ohio the Magic and Cavs took part in a very close 104-103 tilt that saw the Cavs come out of it with a narrow victory. Last time out in Orlando we saw another close game with the Magic pulling ahead very late for a 103-96 victory. Im betting on more grinding action but as this game winds down Im also expecting alot more aggressive offensive output in this do or die situation. My totals number for this game is 200 so a full possession edge to the over is my call. Bickerstaff in 13  all playoff games as the coach of CLEVELAND has seen a combined average of 198 ppg scored.Bickerstaff in 49  home games revenging a road loss vs opponent as the coach of CLEVELAND have seen a combined average of 220.6 ppg. Bickerstaff in 80  home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached has seen a combined average of 218.5 ppg scored.Mosley in 106 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of ORLANDO has seen a combined average of 220.7 ppg scored.

CLEVELAND is 11-3 OVER in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season with a combined average of 223.6 ppg scored.

Play over

The Minnesota Wolves and Denver Nuggets own two grinding defenses and slow paced attacks. But despite of this still have enough weapons to put a generous amount of points on the board. In a game Im betting will be close, my projections estimate both sides will put up +104 points which qualifies on an over wager. 

DENVER is 19-5 OVER  in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average  228.4 ppg scored.DENVER L/17 when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 215.2 ppg scored. 

Minnesota L/ 82 games as a road underdog have seen a combined average of 229.6 ppg scored. MINNESOTA is 25-12 OVER  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 229.9 ppg scored,

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - good offensive team - scoring 114+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 120 points or more 2 straight games in 498 games  spanning 27 seasons has seen a combined average of 232.9 ppg scored.

NBA team (MINNESOTA) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games have seen a combined average of 221.7 ppg scored spanning 5 seasons and 252 games.

These teams have gone over the total in 7 of the 9 games in the Mile High city. Only 1 times in the L/13 meetings in this series have seen these teams combined for less than this offered totals number. 

Play over

In the two games in this play off series played in Indiana the pace and combined  scoring outputs have produced exactly 239 points both times. Im now betting on a similar all out output, as the Bucks are on the verge of illumination and will have to be aggressive offensively against the NBAs No 1 offense that will be ready to run and gun their way to the next series. The Bucks upset the Pacers by a 115-92 count  at home last time out as the the visitors looked lethargic , but Im betting on a huge rebound here from the Pacers and an all out performance especially on offense where they usually thrive.  Note:INDIANA is 20-7 OVER after scoring 105 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 242.9 ppg scored. MILWAUKEE in 41 games after allowing 105 points or less over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average 232.8 ppg scored.

.INDIANA in 33 in home games versus sub standard defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or better this season have seen a combined average of 244..3 ppg scored. 

MILWAUKEE in 65 games versus sub standard defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more  this season with a combined average of 236.1 ppg scored.

***There are reports Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard will return for this game, but still not verified. Play or not Im still expecting offensive fireworks.

Play on the over

The Heat Im betting will be far more aggressive than they have been in their L/2 games vs the Celtics . Their defensive minded game plan utterly failed vs the Celtics and now they have to open up or be blown off the court. This Im betting leads to combined score that eclipses this total.  BOSTON L/35 as a favorite of 10 or more points this season has seen a combined average of 230.4 ppg scored. BOSTON 16 games after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half this season have seen a combined average of 231 ppg scored.

MIAMI in 20 games versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season have seen a combined average of 215.9 ppg scored. MIAMI in 29  road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36%  or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored. MIAMIs L/33 road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 217.3 ppg scored.

 NBA team (MIAMI) - after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or less 2 straight games are 66-27 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 224.4 ppg.

Play on the OVER 

Denver knows how to slow down run and gun teams like the Lakers, here in the Mile High City  behind the 6th ranked defense and 27th ranked pace. The Nuggets held the Lakers to 99 and 103 points in the first two games of this series here in Denver, behind a strong grinding D. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here and a combined score that stays on the low side of the offered total 

DENVER is 9-0 UNDER  in home games against Pacific division opponents this season with a combined average of 214.7 ppg scored. DENVER is 16-3 UNDER   after playing 2 consecutive road games this season with a combined average of 216.2 ppg scored. DENVER is 11-3 UNDER  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season this season for 215.2 ppg. 

NBAl teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER/LA LAKERS) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 5th game of a playoff series are 30-4 UNDER L/28 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Pacers were in true run and gun form in game 2 of this series winning by a 125-108 count. The Bucks will have to ramp up their attack here in game two or be blown of the court as Im betting the Pacers  on their own home floor will feed off the energy of the crowd and be in full flight. This will lead to a higher scoring affair than the linesmakers are estimating. INDIANA is 8-0 OVER in home games off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 263.3 ppg scored. Carlisle is 15-3 OVER in April games as the coach of INDIANA with a combined average of 245.3 ppg scored. 

INDIANA is 40-21 OVER \ when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 241.1 ppg scored. INDIANA in their L/43   when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 236 ppg go on the board.

MILWAUKEE  in 39  road games this season has seen a combined average of 234.7 ppg scored.MILWAUKEE iin 20 games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season have seen a combined average of 247.7 ppg scored.

These teams have gone over in 5 of the L/6 meetings here in Indiana.

Play on the over

My. projections estimate that both these teams will produce +114 points in what the linesmakers expect to be a very close game  .LA LAKERS are 31-0 OVER  where both teams score 114 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 253.2 ppg scored..DENVER is 16-2 OVER where both teams score 114 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 244.5 ppg scored.

LA LAKERS L/30 versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined score of 227.3 ppg scored.LA LAKERS  L/173 games versus good shooting teams - making 46%  or more of their shots over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 232.2 ppg scored. LA LAKERS in 48 games as a favorite this season have seen a combined average of 235.5 ppg scored.

DENVER 45 games this season  when playing against a team with a winning record has seen a combined average 221.2 ppg scored.

DENVERs 65 games  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season has seen a combined average of 222.9 ppg scored.

Play over

In game 1 of this series the  Celtics outscored the Heat 31-14 in the third quarter and led 91-59 entering the fourth. Needless to say, the Heats defense first  game plan did not work, and they now need to be more aggressive offensively or be blown off the court again. Tonight look for the Heat to try to speed their game up, and for more shots to drop and for a higher scoring game than the lines-makers expect.Mazzulla is 18-7 OVER after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half as the coach of BOSTON with a combined average of 234.2 ppg scored. MIAMI in 26 games as a road underdog this season have seen a combined average of 213.8 ppg scored.MIAMI is 5-13 ATS in 18 games revenging a road loss vs opponent this season have seen a combined average of 218.8 ppg scored.

Play over

Denver ranks 6h in-defense ppg allowed , and 14th in offensive production and 27th in pace.Slow and and easy is the defending campions modus operandi, and nothing will chan ge today in the high altitudes of Rockies. Im betting the Nuggets play gridning physcial game as they look to slow down the Lakers and make them work hard for every point, which will lead to a lower socring game than the linesmakers number suggests. 

DENVER is 10-2 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 215.3 ppg scored.DENVER is 16-6 UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots this season with a combined average of 219 ppg scored.DENVER is 17-8 UNDER (+8.2 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 216.7 ppg scored.DENVER is 8-0 UNDER  in home games against Pacific division opponents this season with a combined average of 216.3 ppg scored.

Five of the last eight games here in Denver have stayed under.

Play on the under

These teams have a recent history of playing very physical defensive games in the recent past and Im betting on nothing changing here tonight in game two of this series. Three of the L/4 meetings have failed to eclipse this Totals offering. 

NEW YORK in 26 games  when leading in a playoff series since 1996 have seen a combined average of 174 ppg scored.

PHILADELPHIA is 9-0 UNDER  when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent this season with a combined average of 204.6 ppg scored. 

NBA team (PHILADELPHIA) - a good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. offensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 105 points or less 2 straight games are 28-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the under 

The Kings are off a conclusive victory last time out, vs Golden State by a 118-94 count. Note: SACRAMENTO L/16 after allowing 105 points or less this season have seen a combined average of 222.5 ppg scored. Meanwhile, the Pelicans lost a 110-106 battle to the experienced Lakers last time out, but Im betting on them being more aggressive here tonight offensively which in turn will help us see the combined score eclipse this offering. Brown L/42 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of SACRAMENTO has seen a combined average of 230.2 ppg scored.

The nine most recent meetings in this series have all eclipsed this totals offering and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here again tonight. 

NEW ORLEANS L/72 games  versus sub par defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or worse 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 222.5 ppg scored.

SACRAMENTOs L/41 in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better  of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons haver seen a combined average of 232.8 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO L/24 in road games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored. 

SACRAMENTO L/12 in road games when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 229.2 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SACRAMENTO) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 65-37 OVER L/27 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the over

My own projections estimate a combined score in the 211-to 214  range giving us a 2 possession edge to the over. I know Miami is a defense first team, but when pushed- which they will be- can light up the scoreboard with some offensive fireworks of their own. Note: The Heat have gone over in 9 of their L/10 overall.  

MIAMI L/77 games as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 216.3 ppg scored. MIAMI in 7  road games revenging a home loss vs opponent this season have seen a combined average of 219 ppg scored ( Lost 109-105 to Phil on April 4th) MIAMI in L/ 44 games   when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 220.4 ppg scored. ( lost last two meetings)

MIAMI is 17-4 OVER  in April games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 226.3 ppg scored. 

Nurse in 27 games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season as the coach of PHILADELPHIA has seen a combined average of 215.9 ppg scored.

PHILADELPHIA is 17-7 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 234.7 ppg scored.

NBA team (MIAMI) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half have seen a combined average of 227.7 ppg scored during a current 65 game sample size over the L/5 seasons. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more have seen a combined average of 213.5 ppg scored over a 233 sample size going back 27 seasons.

Play over

My projections place this game total in the high 220s to low 230s, giving us at least one possession plus edge on this current totals offering. My estimates also suggest both sides will score +114 points- Note:LA LAKERS are 31-0 OVER where both teams score 114 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 253.2 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 15-1 OVER where both teams score 114 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 250.4 ppg scored.

The Lakers rank 6th in NBA in offensive production and a lowly 23rd in defensive ppg allowed and a speedy 4th in pace. Meanwhile, the Pelicans rank 13th in offensive production, and 8th in ppg allowed, behind the 17th ranked pace, but those numbers are a little deceiving as they have allowed  a 46.7 % FG conversion rate from opponents at home and in their L/5 overall games entering this game have allowed a 49.7 % FG conversion rate.

Pelicans have gone over in 3 straight games and 7 of their L/9 , while the Lakers have gone over in 4 straight and 6 of their L/7. 

LA LAKERS L/8 after scoring 120 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 234.8 ppg scored.

LA LAKERS are 23-13 OVER  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored. 

LA LAKERS are 9-1 OVER  in road games against Southwest division opponents this season with a combined average of 240.8 ppg scored. 

LA LAKERS are 22-7 OVER when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 239.4 ppg scored.

Ham  in 134 games vs sides like the Pelicans allowing a  46% or more defensive FG conversion rate  as the coach of LA LAKERS has seen a combined average of 236 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA LAKERS) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (45.5-47.5%), hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or  of their shots over a 143 game sample size have seen a combined average of 228 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (NEW ORLEANS) - average defensive team (108-114 PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG), after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 62-31 OVER L/27 seasons with a average combined score of 230.5 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW ORLEANS) - good offensive team - scoring 114+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 120 points or more 2 straight games have seen a combined average of 233.3 ppg over a 245 game sample size. 

Play over

My projections estimate a combined score in the mid 220s giving us a substantial edge on this totals offering to the over. In a recent meeting these teams combined for 238 points, and even though both teams may rest starters tonight Im betting on a loose game with very little physical defensive action which will help propel this score to higher limits than the linesmkaers expect.

HOUSTON L/33 games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season have seen a combined average of 232.1 ppg scored. HOUSTON L/29 in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season have seen a combined average of 228.3 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 7-0 OVER  in April games this season with a combined average of 237.2 ppg scored. 

LA CLIPPERS L/22 after playing 2 consecutive home games this season have seen a combined average of 234.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 2219.5 to 229.5 (HOUSTON) - extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 42-18 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play over

Im betting these NY NBA rivals play a fairly wide open game tonight that I project will be higher scoring than the lines-makers are expecting . I know Brooklyn will be short handed overall but their replacements will be playing loose and  looking for extended contracts, so I expect aggressive action. Meanwhile, the Knicks offense has been hitting on all cylinders, and according to my numbers will exceed the 120 point plateau in this event , even though they played last night in a win vs the Celtics. (. NYK has put 122, 128, and 118 points on the board  in their L/3 tilts) Even in a letdown situation, and with the Nets playing short handed we should get over this exaggerated totals offering. 

NEW YORK is 13-4 OVER in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 238.5 ppg scored. NEW YORK in 44 games as a favorite this season have seen a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored. 

BROOKLYN is 37-18 OVER   when the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored. BROOKLYN iin 43 games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season have seen a combined average of 223.2 ppg scored.BROOKLYN i n 36  road games this season has seen a combined average of 224.9 ppg scored.BROOKLYN in 43 games  revenging a loss vs opponent this season have seen a combined average of 221.8 ppg scored.NEW YORK  in 39 home games this season has seen a combined average of 215.9 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (BROOKLYN) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 53-21 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 231.6 ppg scored.

Play over

My. projections estimate a total closer to 224  which give us a more than 2 possession value on this offering to the over. The Bulls know they will play the Atlanta Hawks  as the Nos. 9 and 10 seeds in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament. Meanwhile,  the Pistons have lost five straight and 13 of their last 14 games and have nothing left to play for so they will play loose here tonight. With that said, Im betting there will be a lack of  physical intensity defensively tonight and a more wide open game most likely will be on the agenda which signifies a higher scoring output than expected by the linesmakers.

NBA team (CHICAGO) - after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or less 2 straight games are 63-27 OVER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate with a combined average of 224 ppg going on the board.

Play on the over

We all know that the Magic thrive in defensive type games, but Im betting tonight the run and gun Rockets who rank 11th in pace in the league will force them into a faster paced game, which will result in a combined score that eclispes this offering. Houston allows an average of 113 plus points per game on the season, and Im betting the Magic hitting that plateau while the Rockets chase that same output  here at home tonight . 

ORLANDO is 16-6 OVER in road games after allowing 105 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 226.8 ppg scored. ORLANDO iL/59 games  versus sub par defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46%  or worse this season with a combined average of 218.5 ppg scored.

HOUSTON is 11-3 OVER  when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season with a combined average of 239.5 ppg going on the scoreboard.  HOUSTONs L/25 games after 4 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 239 ppg go on the board. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (HOUSTON) - after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 54-20 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 222.1 ppg.

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (HOUSTON) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 55-21 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 221.8 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (ORLANDO) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 3 straight losses by 10 points or more are 29-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 237.4 ppg scored.

Play over

According to my projections the current totals offering is of by close to 2 possession which favors an over bet between the visiting 76ers and their hosts the Heat. Even the slightest edge will end up being a long term profitable approach to betting the NBA .

I know both sides run at a slower pace, but in what the linesmakers are expecting a close competitive game eclipsing the total is a viable opportunity as my projections estimate both sides will score +107 points.

The 76ers defensive rating registers at  115.2 (12th of 30) Net Rtg: +2.3 (14th of 30)

The Heats defensive rating registers at :112.8 (6th of 30) Net Rtg: +1.5 (16th of 30)

PHILADELPHIA is 28-13 OVER   when the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored.

Spoelstra is 82-59 OVER  in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 as the coach of MIAMI with a combined average of 216.8 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA) - after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 60-27 OVER L/5 seasons with the combined average of 233.8 ppg scored over the 87 game  sample.

Play over

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (NEW YORK) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 10 points or more are 47-26 OVER L/27 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Boston was upset last time out by a 120-118 score by this same Atlanta squad, and now redemption is at hand. Im betting on a merciless effort here from the Celtics and for the Hawks to have to open up with some offensive foireworsk of their own in chase mode which Im projecting will help easily eclipse this total.

BOSTON L/28 revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons has een a combined average of 233.4 ppg scored.

ATLANTA is 11-1 OVER  in home games versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 253.6 ppg scored. 

ATLANTA is 10-1 OVER  in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 252.5 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BOSTON) - after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, playing with 2 days rest are 67-29 OVER L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

 The last time these teams met the  Mavs smashed the Thunder by a 146-111 count as hosts  and now with revenge on board Im betting the home side will be primed for pay back and even if they have a substantial lead will not take their foot off  proverbial pedal. In response the explosive Mavs will have to fire back with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown off the court, which will lead to a fairly high scoring game. I know Mavs super star Doncic may. not play , but the Mavs still have a enough firepower to be fairly competitive and put points on the board in sufficient amounts to get us over the total. Yes, I  am also aware the Mavs  played last night, but it must be noted that the Thunder has gone 8-0 OVER L/8 at home vs unrested conference opposition . Dallas has also gone over in 8 of their L/9 as road dogs with no rest. 

 DALLAS is 7-0 OVER  in road games vs. sub par rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season with a combined average of 246.6 ppg scored.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 16-1 OVER  versus teams who attempt 39 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 249.3 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-1 OVER   in home games after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 246.4 ppg scored.

Play over

Milwaukee scored more than 120 points in their L/2 games and my projections estimate another top tier offensive effort tonight in Sacramento. The Bucks rank 6th in the league in pace and 2nd in offensive output and rank 19th in ppg allowed. Meanwhile, Sacramento, ranks 8th in ppg scored and 12rh in pace and 23rd in ppg allowed SACRAMENTO is 11-2 OVER in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 243.3 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO is 19-9 OVER  in home games this season with a combined average of 241.5 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO is 8-1 OVER  against Central division opponents this season with a combined average of 248.8 ppg scored. 

Bucks are 22-0 OVER L22 vs Sac!  Kings  12-1 OVER at home vs  a .500 or better  non-conf opponent and 19-3 OVER at home in 1/1 rest situation. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MILWAUKEE) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or more ) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or better ), after 2 straight games making 16 or more 3 point shots are 101-71 L/27 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors. 

My projections estimate both teams will score in the 118 plus range. Note:MILWAUKEE is 27-5 OVER  where both teams score 114 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 252.5 ppg scored.SACRAMENTO is 26-3 OVER   where both teams score 114 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 251 ppg scored. 

Play over

Im betting this Total is has been exaggerated past a threshold of being accurate according to my own projections. I know Charlotte is dealing with a boatload full of injuries and lack flow, but Im betting these two bottom feeders with no post season expectations will play a loose game, that will be higher scoring than the public, sharps and linesmakers expect. Note: The Pistons have allowed an average of 120 ppg at home this season, with the combined average of 232  ppg scored. Charlotte has allowed 118.2 ppg on the road, while scoring 106.1 ppg for a combined average of 224.3 ppg scored. When these teams played back on Jan 24th they saw a combined average of 219 points scored and Im expecting a similar output tonight. Clifford in his L/9 versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 120+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of CHARLOTTE has seen a combined average pf 218.4 ppg scored.CHARLOTTE L/12 against Central division opponents this season have seen a combined average of 219.8 ppg scored. CHARLOTTE L/30 when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 222.8 ppg scored.

Motwon is off allowing 142 points vs Dallas last time out in a wide open affair- it must be noted that  the DETROIT  Pistons in their L/14 after allowing 135 points or more over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 239.3 ppg go on the scoreboard.DETROIT  in their L/7 at home games versus lower tier teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game this season have seen a combined average of 224.6 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHARLOTTE) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 daysPlay on the over are 83-47 OVER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DETROIT) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a poor are 44-22 L/27 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

The Clippers Im betting will pace themselves here and be a fairly conservative in transition  with another early start on board tomorrow vs the Bucks.This Im betting directly projects to a failrly low scoring game that fails to eclipse this offered number. Add to that the Bulls propensity to play top tier teams with added defensive fervor as is evident by the following trends. CHICAGO is 10-1 UNDER   in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 216.1 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 23-9 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.7 ppg scored. 

LA CLIPPERS are 9-0 UNDER in home games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 season with a combined average of 216 ppg scored which was the case last time out vs Houston on the road. The Clippers have also gone under in 18 of 20  in 2/1 rest situation. 

Play on the under

As the post season comes closer the Bucks have toughened up on D, and are playing a more conservative style of hoops in transition. This has resulted in 10 straight unders with non of those combined scores eclipsing this totals offering. It must also be noted that the Bucks have seen their L/10  non -conference road games stay on the low side of the number. Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors have seen their L/7 games stay low, and 12 of their L/14 stay under the linesmakers total projections. Considering both teams current form and game plan tendencies a under wager he is a viable wagering opportunity. 

NBA team (GOLDEN STATE) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games are 136-92 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the under

Floor General and  All-Star guard Jalen Brunson is questionable tonight and if he does play will be less than 100% which will effect the Knicks effectiveness on offense. Meanwhile, the Hawks, will be without their top scorer Trey Young and this will effect their output as well. It must be noted that the Knicks rank 30th in pace and 3rd ranked D ppg,  in the league and will be even more focused on ball control and clock management in transition with Julius Randle also out for the Knicks. Everything points to this being a lower scoring affair. 

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 5 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New York's last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta. NYK has gone under in 11 of their L/12 vs .500 or less opposition. 

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games on the road.

Play under

My projections estimate a combined score in the low 230s giving us at least a 2 possession edge. 

The Bulls are 8-0-1 L9 vs Pacific Division opposition  and are 11-3 OVER  L14 non-conf road games..T he total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road.

Sacramento ranks 22nd in the NBA in ppg allowed and rank 8th in ppg scored.

SACRAMENTO is 8-0 OVER against Central division opponents this season with a combined average of 252.1 ppg scored. 

SACRAMENTO is 12-4 OVER  in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or better  this season.

SACRAMENTO is 16-6 OVER  as a home favorite this season with a combined average of 243.4 ppg scored.

Sacramento is  10-0 OVER as favs 4  or more  pts  playing with  2 days rest and  12-2 OVER L14 non-conference home tilts. 

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 6 games at home

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (CHICAGO) - in non-conference games, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 176-108 OVER L/27 seasons  for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (SACRAMENTO) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42 or more games are 310-124 OVER L/5 seasons for a 59% conversion rate.

Play over

Minnesota played in a low scoring grinding affair against the Clippers last night and will be ready to run and gun tonight in redemption mode after a 1 point loss. The Blazers will have no choice but to try to produce some offensive fiore works of their own or be blown of the court. This scenario Im betting favors a much higher scoring affair than the linesmakers expect. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MINNESOTA) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days against opponent extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days are 36-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.\

Play over 

My projected Total projects a combined score in the mid 230s giving us at least a 1 to 2 possession edge on this offering. 

After playing last night in a grueling and disappointing 121-119 loss to Cleveland Im betting on the Mavs being more conservative in their approach to this game and will focus on good technical play in transition especially on defense. Dallas has gone under in 4 straight tilts, entering last nights game in Cleveland , while the Raptors have gone under in 5 of their L/7 overall, and 18 of their 28 games at home this season.The last two meetings here in Toronto have gone under the total. 

DALLAS is 11-2 UNDER versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228 ppg scored. DALLAS is 20-7 UNDER after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 213.9 ppg scored. 

TORONTO is 11-3 UNDER in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better  of their attempts this season with a combined average of 223.2 ppg scored. TORONTO is 16-5 UNDER in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game this season with a combined average of 225.2 ppg scored. TORONTO is 8-1 UNDER  in home games in non-conference games this season with a combined average of 214.9 ppg scored.

 NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (TORONTO) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 47-18 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

Milwaukee has gone under in 6 straight games. Charlotte has gone under in 5 straight games thanks to both sides playing strong defensive ball.  The hornets have not allowed 3 of their last 4 opponents to to breach the 99 point plateau. Meanwhile, the Bucks have not allowed 3 of their L/6 opponents to eclipse the 98 point plateau. 

Charlotte has gone under in 4 straight vs .600 or better opposition and have gone under in 7 of their L/8 conference road games.

CHARLOTTE is 10-1 UNDER  in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220 ppg going on the board. CHARLOTTE is 21-7 UNDER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making  36% or better  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.7 ppg scored.  CHARLOTTE is 9-1 UNDER when playing 5 or less games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 210.7 ppg scored. CHARLOTTE is 8-0 UNDER after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 207 ppg scored. CHARLOTTE is 16-4 UNDER  after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 216.6 ppg scored.

Milwaukee has gone under in 6 straight as non division favorites and have gone under in 7 of their L/8 vs Charlotte and have gone under in 4 of their L/5 vs .333 or less opposition. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 34-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHARLOTTE) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more are 66-25 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

According to my projections the linesmakers have over shot this total by ate least 2 possessions. My number sits closer to 239-240 - which gives us a significant edge to the under. Raptors games have averaged a combined  231.6 ppg. Pacers tilts have averaged  246 combined points per game. 

Carlisle in 54 games  as a home favorite as the coach of INDIANA has seen a combined average of 235.1 ppg scored. Indiana has gone under in 3 of their L/4 at home. 

Rajakovic in 14  road games where the total is greater than or equal to 230 as the coach of TORONTO has seen a combined average of 240.2 ppg scored. Toronto has gone under in 5 of their L/6 overall. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (INDIANA) - extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days, in February games.NBA are 35-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 231.3 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (TORONTO) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days against opponent extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 48-21 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 232.3 ppg scored.

Play under

Cleveland was upset vs short handed Philly last time out as favs . They looked pretty tired in that tilt, and now with this being their 3rd game in 4 nights will not be in any condition to run and gun vs the Wizards. Thats not part of the Cavs Modus operandi any way. Note:
CLEVELAND is 14-3 UNDER   off an upset loss as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of  208.9 ppg scored.  With that said, Im betting on a concerted effort to get back to playing their usual brand of top tier defense that is ranked 2nd in ppg allowed and D efficiency, behind the 22nd ranked pace in the league . This Im betting will help keep this tilt below of the offered Totals number. Note: Cleveland has gone under 5 straight in a non division game.

CLEVELAND is 7-0 UNDER  as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season with a combined average of 212.7 ppg scored. 

CLEVELAND is 15-4 UNDER  versus sub par teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score of 212.8 ppg scored. 

CLEVELAND is 21-6 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.8 ppg scored.

Washington has gone under in 9 straight games as a 13 or less point dog in a conference tilt. The Wizards have gone under in 4 straight at home vs .650 or better opposition. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (WASHINGTON) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days against opponent extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 105-64 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (CLEVELAND) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 49-19 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

My own projections estimate a total in the mid 230s range giving us a 2 plus possession edge to the under on this offered  Total. 

Daigneault  in 8  home games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY has seen a combined average of 235.1 ppg scored.  Oklahoma City in 27  home games this season has seen a combined average of 235.9 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is   in 17 home games versus sub par teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 229.1 ppg scored.

WASHINGTON is 8-1 UNDER versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 227.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 48-15 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 225.9 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 23-6 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate with a combined average of 226.7 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 60-28 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 231.6 ppg scored.

Play on the under

Coming out of the all star break Im betting these teams will not be as cohesive offensively as the line makers are expecting. Note: After being designated  as the unofficial host of All-Star weekend, Indiana Pacers star guard Tyrese Haliburton could easily find himself exhausted in this spot. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (INDIANA) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 23-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate with a combined average of 226.7 ppg going on board.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DETROIT) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 60-28 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DETROIT) - sub par team - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after a close win by 3 points or less 34-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 226 ppg scored. 

Play under 

The Nuggets have a few days rest under their belts and will the have the legs to be physical in transition here v vs the Bucks. Meanwhile, with the Bucks big three of Middleton, Lilliard , and  Antetokounmpo banged up with various injuries and playing at less than 100% Im betting on a lower scoring affair. Note: The Bucks last 3 home tilts vs the Nuggets have stayed on the low side of the total. 

Denver ranks 6th in the NBA in ppg allowed, and just 18th in ppg on offense.

DENVER is 12-2 UNDER after playing 2 consecutive road games this season with a combined average of 218.5 ppg scored.. DENVER is 15-7 UNDER  in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season with a combined average of 223.2 ppg scored. Nuggets have gone under in 9 of their L/11 overall. – The Nuggets have gone under in 6 straight non-conference away tilts  and have gone under in 5 straight  vs . .600  or better opposition. 

MILWAUKEE is 27-14 UNDER as an underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 223.2 ppg scored.Only 1 of the Bucks last 8 games has eclipsed the total. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). are 31-9 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 26-4 L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

Pelicans Zion Williamson will possibly miss this game or will play at less than 100% which should be a detriment to the New Orleans offense and with this being the Pelicans 4th straight road game the Bayou crew should be on tired legs and far from ready to run and gun. Meanwhile. Memphis continues to be ravaged by injuries, and have now lost 8 straight and struggle on most nights to put points on the board. With that said, Im betting this total will not be eclipsed. 

 MEMPHIS is 7-0 UNDER in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season with a combined average of 211.4 ppg scored.

NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 UNDER  vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.6 ppg scored. 

Note: Pelicans took a 93-84 decision at Portland last time out. Which sets in motion this key long term  league wide trend. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 37-5 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 215.1 ppg. 

Play Under

My projections estimate a combined score in the low to mid 230s giving us close 2 plus possession edge on the offered Total.

SACRAMENTO is 24-8 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231.2 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO is 26-10 UNDER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts over the last 2 seasons are 26-10 UNDER for a combined average of 231.3 ppg.  SACRAMENTO is 18-6 UNDER  as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 255 points or more are 36-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 50-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - after 3 or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (118 or more PPG) are 36-19 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

The Pelicans enter this  game ranked 9th in ppg allowed this season and 8th in defensive rating  and 17th in pace, while ranking 13thin offense. The Cajun birds   counter parts and hosts  tonight the Lakers rank 14th in offense ppg, and 20th in offensive rating, while ranking 6th in pace, which tells me that their not producing according to their tempo which bodes well here for a under bet cashing as my  projections estimate a combined score that does not beach the 231 point plateau giving us a one possession edge. 

Also the Lakers played last night so that high end pace could also slow significantly . Note: the Pelicans have gone under 7 straight times in  away tilts vs unrested conf opposition. Lakers have gone under at  home 7 of the L/8 times on back to back games and have gone under  in 6 of their L/6 at  home against the Pelicans. 

NEW ORLEANS is 10-1 UNDER L/11 in road games after 2 straight games committing 7+ less turnovers than opponents which is the case entering this game. /the average combined ppg in these tilts rings in. at 190.8 ppg scored.

NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 UNDER  after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 226 ppg scored. 

NEW ORLEANS is 16-4 UNDER in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or better assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.9 ppg scored.NEW ORLEANS is 33-16 UNDER  as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 223.7 ppg scored. 

LA LAKERS are 10-2 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season with a combined average of 225.3 ppg scored.

LA LAKERS are 10-2 UNDER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with a combined average of 227.1  ppg scored. 

Play under

New York may be without star guard Jalen Brunson (ankle) and if he does play will be less than 100%. Meanwhile, Julius Randle (shoulder), OG Anunoby (elbow) and Quentin Grimes (knee) will sit out. This Im betting forces the Knicks to be more defensive minded in transition and  to slow play down. Also on the flip-side visiting Dallas will see super star Doncic play with a face guard on because of a broken nose, and this could easily play havoc with his offensive production . I know these teams played a high scoring affair, last time they played with Dallas taking a 128-124 count but it must be noted that   NEW YORK is 7-0 UNDER in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 213.2  ppg scored. Thibodeau is 35-14 UNDER  in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent as the coach of NEW YORK with a combined average of 208.9 ppg scored in those 49 games.

DALLAS is 27-14 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 215.6 ppg scored.

NEW YORK is 22-12 UNDER  sub standard defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or worse this season with a combined average of 223.5 ppg scored. 

NYK has gone under in  L7 home games  vs Dallas.

Play on the under

The 76ers played a lazy brand of D in their L/ game vs the Brooklyn Nets losing by a 136-121 count as home favs . HC Nurse was not happy with his teams Defensive efforts,. note:Nurse is 12-1 UNDER  in home games off a home loss by 10 points or more in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average of 215.8 ppg scored. Also from my perspective it was the Sixers first game back home after a grueling 5 game road trip out west and they were jet lagged. Now rested after sleeping on their own beds  I expect tonights host to come out here with alot more fire especially in defensive  transition, and this Im betting helps keep this combined score on the low side of the offering. 

Also lots of key offensive cogs are expected to miss this game for both sides and if they do play see limited action as they are less 100%. 

Doncic for Dallas is questionable and Kyrie Irving is dealing with a thumb sparain and Embiid for 76ers is ruled out. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHILADELPHIA) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 255 points or more are 35-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the under

My projections estimate a combined score in the mid 220s. I know Memphis has a boatload full of injuries but some of the G league players that have been called up will be more than ready to prove themselves with all out performances, that Im betting lead to a much higher scoring out put than the lines-makers expect. Meanwhile the well rested Celtics will be trying to avoid back-to-back home losses. Boston is  off one of its worst performances of the campaign, losing 114-105  at home  to the Los Angeles Lakers, who played without Anthony Davis and LeBron James. Now Im betting on all out bounce back performance that could see a merciless amount of offensive production go on the board here vs a sub par Memphis side. 

BOSTON is 25-13 OVER in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231.2 ppg scored.

Jenkins is 28-15 OVER  in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of MEMPHIS with a combined average of 231.6 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BOSTON) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or worse), after 2 straight games making 16 or more 3 point shots are 55-17 OVER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate with a combined average 229.7 ppg. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BOSTON) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or worse), after 2 straight games making 16 or more 3 point shots 27-4 OVER L/27 seasons for a conversion rate of 87% with a combined average of 231.6 ppg. 

The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 8 games when playing at home against Memphis

Play on the over

The Pelicans wrap up a four-game road trip on tired legs here tonight after playing Milwaukee, Boston and Houston and Im betting they will not be in any condition to run and gun  against a another tired side, that is trying to focus on playing a more solid type of D, behind french phenom Wembanyama. Advantage to the under on this offered totals number.

.NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 UNDER   after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons wih a combined average of 226 ppg scored. 

NEW ORLEANS is 11-1 UNDER  vs. poor rebounding teams - out-rebounded by opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 211 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 23-9 UNDER in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 223.3 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 UNDER  in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 49-14 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play under

My projections estimate this total to be closer to the 231 plus giving us more than possession value on this number. 

SAN ANTONIO is 19-6 OVER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 236.8 ppg scored.SAN ANTONIO is 7-0 OVER  as a home underdog of 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 237.9 ppg scored.

ORLANDO in 9 games  versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 120+ points/game this season have seen a combined average of 236 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (ORLANDO) - off a road loss, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a sub par team (25% or less) are 29-5 OVER L/27 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 237.3 ppg going on the board.

Play over

Cleveland against lower tier teams like Detroit have a tendency of really playing hardcore D . Note CLEVELAND is 11-2 UNDER  when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or worse) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 212.2 ppg while allowing their opposition just 98.9 ppg in offensive production. Also CLEVELAND is 13-3 UNDER  versus struggling  teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 210.1 ppg scored . 

Detroit last time out pulled off a huge upset vs the Oklahoma City and will now Im betting will  be in a letdown spot . Note:DETROIT in their L/13 off a double digit win as a home underdog of 6 more have scored an average of just 96.7 ppg. 

Cleveland is also off a big DD win at home  vs the LA Clippers last time out.CLEVELAND is 15-3 UNDER   in home games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 207 ppg while once again not allowing their opposition to eclipse the 100 point plateau while allowing an average of just 98.3 ppg in offense. 

The Pistons have gone under in 6  straight vs the Cavaliers. .

The Cavs  have gone under in 12 of their L/13 vs .300 or less  opposition and have gone under  9 of their L/10 division home games  and another score that does not eclipse the total is what Im betting will be a high probability outcome.

Play under

My projections place this total at no higher than 236 which gives a full plus possession value edge on this number. 

DETROIT is 20-8 UNDER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 220.6 ppg scored. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games at home.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-1 UNDER   off 2 or more consecutive road wins over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220.4 ppg scored. Thunder have gone under in 6 of their L/9. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - a very good team (7 or more PPG diff.) against a struggling team (7 or less PPG diff.) after 42 or more games are 44-14 UNDER 27 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team (DETROIT) - struggling  team - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 47-23 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Detroit's last 19 games when playing Oklahoma City.The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City.

Play under

The Pelicans played last night  and playing strong transitional  defense  will now be a problem against a run and gun Milwaukee side Im betting will turn this into a more wide open tilt out of necessity for both sides. Milwaukee is also playing back to back, and the same holds true for them. Note: NO has gone over in 5 straight with  no rest vs non-conference  opposition like the Bucks and overall have gone over the offered number in a  13 of their L/14 tilts vs Milwaukee  .  The Bucks are  6-0 OVER L/6 Saturday home games. MILWAUKEEs L/39 games  versus good passing teams, averaging 23  or more assists/game this season with a combined average of 247 ppg scored. The two most recent meeting in this series have eclipsed this totals offering . Milwaukee scored just 100 points last night in a lazy 112-100 loss to the Cavs which will have them primed and ready to bounce back with a big offensive performance which they are very capable of having.MILWAUKEE is 13-4 OVER  after 1 or more consecutive unders this season with a combined average of 248.3 ppg scored.

Play over

Early Afternoon play will see these teams most likely starting slow, thus giving us an edge on a lower scoring game than the linesmkaers expect. Also from the wizards perspective they will be implementing a more physical defensive game plan going forward."Defense has to be our calling card," Washington new HC Keefe said. "We have to see improvement on that. That's going to be my first step. And I've always thought that. Basic tenets of the NBA -- I like unselfish basketball; I like spacing; I like making the simple play. But our focus right now, for us, is we've got to see growth defensively." Note: Unseld Jr in his L/42 road games after a non-conference game as the coach of WASHINGTON has seen a  combined average of 223.2 ppg scored. (Wash played Utah last time out)

DETROIT is 10-1 UNDER in home games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 228.9 ppg scored.

WASHINGTON is 13-3 UNDER  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less  turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 230.9 ppg scored. 

 NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 120 points or more are 52-15 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 221.6 ppg scored.

Play on the under 

These two teams the Pacers and the 76ers have a history of playing high scoring affairs with the last 5  meetings eclipsing the total with a combined average of 265.6 ppg scored. According to my projections this game once again sets up be a high scoring affair. 

PHILADELPHIA is 11-2 OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game this season with a combined average of 242.8 ppg scored.PHILADELPHIA is 11-2 OVER  versus sub defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or more  - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 244.6 ppg scored.

The Pacers lost to the Nuggets last time out by a 114-109 count as hosts.  INDIANA is 8-0 OVER off a home loss this season with a combined average of 264.4 ppg scored.

 INDIANA is 14-3 OVER in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 245.3 ppg scored.

Play over

San Antonio is ranked 28th in the NBA in offensive rating, and averaging just 109.4 ppg on the road this season. Philadelphia ranks 2nd in defensive rating, and Im betting they keep the inconsistent offense of the 76ers in control mode here helping us keep our under projection from being eclipsed.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games at home. San Antonio is 3-7-1 O/U L/11 overall. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 48-26 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) - after scoring 68 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after a combined score of 190 points or less are 123-70 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

When these two teams Cleveland and Milwaukee played in the last week in December they combined in for 230 points in a 119-111 Bucks  home victory.Im now projecting similar output here based on current pace and overall data. None of the L/5 meetings in this series has eclipsed this Totals offering. 

MILWAUKEE is 33-18 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 230.8 ppg scored.

CLEVELAND L/91 games versus sub standard  defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% plus over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 219.7 ppg scored. CLEVELAND is 31-13 UNDER (+16.7 Units) in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 210.1 ppg scored. CLEVELAND L/104 home games over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 216.4 ppg scored. Only 2 of the Cavaliers L/9 games have eclipsed the total.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (CLEVELAND) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 45-10 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (CLEVELAND) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 55-16 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (CLEVELAND) - extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-4 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after having won 3 of their last 4 games against opponent after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games are 61-31 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

Im betting on a high scoring affair tonight, with Milwaukee on tired legs after playing last night  and highly likely to not look good in transition on defense.  The Bucks inconsistent defensive play vs a redemption minded Kings side off a ugly offensive outing last time out should help dictate the pace. Sacramento ranks 20th in defense, and 9th in the league in offense, while Milwaukee  ranks 2nd in offensive output and 24th in defense ppg allowed. The Bucks rank 4th in pace and the Kings 11th. These teams have gone over the total  21 straight times  . The Bucks have eclipsed the total  11-0 straight times with the Cavaliers on deck next and are 17-4 OVER  as non-conference home chalk of 5 points or more on the opening line  and have gone over  4- L/5  with  no rest this season. My projections also estimate a 121 or more point offensive output from the Kings . Note:MILWAUKEE is 15-4 OVER   when they allow 121 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 254.7 ppg scored.  

NBA t eams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MILWAUKEE) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more are 212 -60 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

Philadelphia despite of a big output last time out vs Atlanta in a 139-132 loss have  been inconsistent offensively as is evident by failing to eclipse the 92 point offensive  threshold  twice in their L/5 games with 4 of those games remaining on the low side of the offered number with the average combined score clicking in at 224.8 ppg . After that huge output last time out Im betting now on immediate regression by the 76ers offense, vs a Sacramento side, that plays a strong defensive brand of hoops on the road, where they have seen 11 of 17 games fail to eclipse the total with a combined average of 227 ppg have been scored. Advantage under.

SACRAMENTO is 22-7 UNDER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better  of their attempts over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 225.8 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO is 15-3 UNDER as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with 224.4 ppg going on the board. SACRAMENTO is 16-4 UNDER  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 225.8 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). are 57-15 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 34-9 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

These teams have consistently played high scoring games in recent meetings .Indiana took a 150-116 decision the last time they met on Jan 5th and previous to that on Nov 12th of 2023 this season they combined for more than 300 points in a 157-152 battle that Indiana also won. Also in their final meeting last season these two take no prisoner offenses and forget about-it defenses  took part in a 143-130 Atlanta victory.  Im betting they continue to conduct all out attacks on each other with their defensive transitional  systems will be put  in down mode. Think all star game. Note: The L/4 games here in Atlanta has gone over.ATLANTA is 8-0 OVER ) in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season with a combined average of 255 ppg scored.INDIANA is 21-8 OVER   versus good shooting teams - making 46%  or better of their shots this season with a combined average of 254.4 ppg scored. Rinse and repeat over in play.

Play over

Utah is playing a better brand of competitive ball of late, thanks in part to more consistent defensive efforts and balanced pace. Here tonight against what must be perceived a s a superior side that they cannot run and gun against with success, Im betting on the Jazz being very stringent and transition which will result in a much lower scoring game than the lines-makers are estimating. The Jazz have seen 5 of their L/6 games stay on the low side of the offered total. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has seen 4 of their L/5 stay under the total. The L/2 meetings here in Milwaukee has stayed under the total.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games are 30-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 46-12 UNDER L/5 seasons fof a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - good rebounding team (+3 to +5.5 reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) are 91-49 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

Philadelphia lost to NYK last time 128- 92 while Utah lost to Boston 126-97. Now Two teams off blowout losses last time out, will be out for redemption here and a more focused effort in transition which Im betting results in a lower scoring affair.

Philadelphia in their L/34 games PHILADELPHIA is 28-13 UNDER   after a huge blowout loss by 30 or more have seen a combined average of 200.7 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 45-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

Play under

My projections estimate a combined score in the high 220s or very low 230 fange giving us a substantial edge on an under bet cashing according to to those projections. 

Memphis ranks 10th in the NBA in Defensive rating and have seen a combined average of 216.4 ppg scored in in their 13 games as hosts with 9 of their 13 games at home staying under the total. 

SACRAMENTO is 33-13 UNDER in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game over the last 2 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 14-3 UNDER  as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

MEMPHIS is 21-7 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.SACRAMENTO is 15-4 UNDER  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SACRAMENTO) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 44-14 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

Orlando has lost 5 of their L/6 overall and  scored 111 points or fewer in the five losses -- less than its season average of 113 per game. Im betting their offensive woes continue tonight against the Bucs , and because their struggling will press hard defensively in transition, this Im betting  will equate to a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers expect according to my projections. 

ORLANDO is 10-1 UNDER in road games off a home loss over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (ORLANDO/ MILWAUKEE) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 54-14 UNDER L/27 seasons for 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Under 

The Suns run the 27th ranked pace in the NBA , and rank 13th in defensive rating efficiency. Meanwhile, the Blazers rank 24th in pace and 29th in offensive scoring. With Portland on tired legs as they play their 3 rd game in 4 nights, Im expecting their pace and aggression to be at less than optimal . Meanwhile the Suns after an extended home stand will come out here a little bit more rested and will be ready to push down with a more aggressive defensive stance, which is their modus operandi - and that should translate to slower tilt as is projected by both teams pace numbers and tendencies.

PORTLAND is 31-17 UNDER  as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 224.7 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHOENIX) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 43-17 L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 221.9 ppg. 

Play under

My projections estimate a combined score in the 230s which gives us a one to two possession advantage to the under. The Lakers are currently playing a top tier brand of defensive hoops, as was evident by holding down the run and gun Indiana Pacers to just 109 points to win the in season tournament. Previous to that game the Lakers held the Pelicans to 89 points , and have allowed an average of just 106.3 ppg in their L/5 overall. After their big win last time out, Im also expecting the Lakers to be in a bit of an emotional letdown state, and to be maybe a little less aggressive offensively which adds up to a lower scoring affair against another side that likes to run and gun.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LAKERS/DALLAS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 41-7 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

 Los Angeles after smothering the Pelicans last time out ( allowing them just 89 points in. a big time victory)  will  once again be ready  to control an Indiana offense that has been the best in the NBA all season. Indiana leads the league with a 128.4 points-per-game average, but the senior laden Lakers Im betting have a plan to slow down the Pacers, and this will result in a much lower scoring tilt that the linesmakers are expecting. The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 49 games at home (+15.40 Units / 29% ROI)

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (INDIANA) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 43-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for. a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LA LAKERS) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 30-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

No way do I see Milwaukee allowing the Pacers to run and gun here in comfortable fashion, and instead I expect the Bucks to become very physical in their attempt to slow down this free wheeling group.Yes, I know the numbers attached to this tilt, favor a very high scoring affair, but in my humble opinion the lines-makers have over adjusted towards a public enticing Total.  This Im betting contributes to a combined score that fails to eclipse this total. MILWAUKEE is 29-16 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. are 33-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (INDIANA) - after scoring 115 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 125 points or more 2 straight games are 44-19 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play under

Dallas looked exhausted last night in a 108-94 loss to Memphis and now in back to back games will be even more tired and less likely to be in the shape to run and gun with this sometimes explosive visiting  Oklahoma City side. Recently the Mavs have been paying  better attention to D, and as a result have not been as proficient offensively, but it was a problem they needed address. Because of thier better defensive efforts they have seen 4 of their L/5 fail to eclipse the total. Here tonight on tired legs and going against  a Thunder side that can light the scoreboard up in a hurry another more disciplined D plan should be in place, which Im betting results in a lower scoring affair than the linesmakers expect. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-3 UNDER in road games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.4 ppg scored.

DALLAS is 41-26 UNDER  after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 223.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DALLAS/OKLAHOMA CITY ) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 41-5 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 218.2 ppg scored.

Play under

 Both of these teams rank in the top five in offensive rating and should easily both top the 109-114 point plateau according to my projections. BOSTON is 12-1 OVER  in home games when they allow 109 to 114 points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 232.7 ppg scored.PHILADELPHIA is 33-20 OVER  after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average with a combined average of 228.1 ppg. 

Play over

This is an important tournament game between division rivals , and Im betting it will be a hard fought physical affair that keeps this combined score to the low side of the offered total. 

SACRAMENTO is 25-14 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 232.7 ppg scored. 

GOLDEN STATE L/33 vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 229.8 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 41-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 222.5 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 63-30 L/27 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 229.9 ppg. 

Play under

New Orleans enters this game having gone under in their L/4 trips to the hardwood while Utah has gone under 3 straight times. I know New Orleans has been explicit about picking up their defensive play and you can see it in their play, and here tonight in the high altitudes of Salt Lake City Im betting on an even more stringent defensive effort , as their 5th game in a week. Advantage under.

NEW ORLEANS is 11-2 UNDER versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.3 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 17-6 UNDER  versus terrible defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or more  over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 225.4 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 33-5 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with the combined average score of 215.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (UTAH) - good offensive team - scoring 114+ points/game on the season, after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 48-21 UNDER L/5 seasons with a combined average score of 227 ppg going on the score board. 

Play under

The last four meetings between the Lakers and Jazz have all eclipsed this total with a combined average of 253.25 oog going on the board. My own projections for this contest come in the high 230s to the  low 240s giving us a significant edge to the over. Utah has consistently played run and gun ball with 7 of their L/9 going over the offered number  and Im betting they drag the Lakers into a wide open tilt here today that goes over the digits.Hardy is 10-1 OVER  vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents as the coach of UTAH with a combined average of 239.3 ppg scored.Ham in 36 games when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of LA LAKERS has seen a. combined average  of 237.1 ppg go on the board.UTAH in its L/57  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 237.2 ppg scored.UTAH L/22 against Pacific division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 242 ppg scored. 

Play over

The Dallas Mavericks ranked 4th in pace  have for most of the season run and gun at a high octane rating and Im sure nothing will change here except their oppositions ability to slow them down and grind away with more physical type of game plan. Im looking for a much more grinding type of affair between two strong teams, and a score that remains on the low side of the offered total. My projections estimate a combined score in the high 230s giving a 2 possession plus edge on the number to the under.  MILWAUKEE in their L/25 games home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 234.2 ppg scored. MILWAUKEE in their L/33 in home games versus good shooting teams - making  46% or better  of their shots over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 233 ppg scored.

MILWAUKEE is 29-8 UNDER L/37 in home games off a road blowout win by 20 points or more with a combined average score of 202.8 ppg scored.(Beat Charlotte last time out 130-99)

 DALLAS   in their L/33  non-conference games over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 229.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DALLAS/ MILWAUKEE) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%)  are 43-9 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 223.2 ppg. 

NBA eams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - after scoring 125 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more 2 straight games are 39-13 L/27 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score registering at 227.4 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 25-5 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with the average combined score of 225.6 ppg going on the board.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DALLAS) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 37-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 229.2 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DALLAS) - off a road win by 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 31-6 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 84% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 222.8 ppg scored.

Play under

The Lakers have lost two straight and have allowed 120 or more points in 3 of their L/4 and in 5 road games this season have allowed an average of 221.4 ppg. Meanwhile, the Suns have averaged 120.3 ppg at home this season while allowing 117 ppg. After the recent negative results from the Lakers Im betting on a very aggressive take no prisoners effort from them , and for the Suns to reciprocate with some offense fireworks themselves and for this offered total to be eclipsed.

 
Ham is 8-0 OVER  off 2 or more consecutive road losses as the coach of LA LAKERS with a combined average of 240.8 ppg scored. 

The suns have gone over in 5 of their L/6 overall

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHOENIX) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (14.5  or less TO's) are 60-25 over L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play over

Sometimes afternoon games have a tendency to see teams start slowly which effects offensive production . But according to my projections this line is still off and a tad to low. PHOENIX is 23-12 OVER  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.2 ppg scored.

Nurse is 57-34 OVER in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in all games he has coached in his career with a combined average of 224.3 ppg scored. 

PHOENIX is 36-23 OVER  when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more are 42-14 OVER L/27 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHOENIX) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or more ) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or more), after 2 straight games making 16 or more 3 point shots 52-15 OVER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

Play on the over

My projections estimate a total combined score that will reach the low 220s which gives us at least a 1 /2 possession edge on this offered number to the under. 

MIAMI in their L/12 when playing against a struggling  team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.6 ppg scored.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - in a game involving 2 struggling  teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 125 points or more are 31-3 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 216 ppg going on the board. 

Play under

The Grizzlies are having problems scoring,  thanks in part the absence  of  Morant,  Steven Adams (knee), Brandon Clarke (Achilles), Luke Kennard (concussion) and Santi Aldama (ankle). The cohesiveness is just not there and that will once again hamper their point production here in Salt Lake City tonight . The Grizzlies is well aware of this and will be focused on good transitional D instead of trying to run and gun which will effect this total to the under. 

MEMPHIS is 15-4 UNDER against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 221.8 ppg scored, 

MEMPHIS is 13-4 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.8 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

MEMPHIS in their L/12 games versus struggling defensive teams - shooting pct defense of  50%  or worse, has seen a combined average of 221.7 ppg scored, MEMPHIS is 14-3 UNDER  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MEMPHIS) - in a game involving 2 struggling teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 125 points or more are 31-2 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

The Wolves have started out their campaign exhibiting very good defensive posture in transition, and Im betting they will continue that type of play here on the road vs a team that they know like to run and gun. Minnesota has allowed 97 and 90 points in their 2 games , and are more than capable of slowing down a Atlanta side, that Im betting is on tired legs playing their 3rd game in 4 night and that  will be in regression mode after a big upset win on the road vs the Milwaukee Bucks last time out.  It must also be noted that the Hawks HC coach Quinn Snyder, wants to see better defense from his team and has made that clear multiple times in press conferences . With that said, Im betting on a much more defensive affair here than the linesmkaers expect. 

MINNESOTA is 19-9 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 226.6 ppg scored. MINNESOTA is 17-7 UNDER off a home win over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.4 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 95 points or less against opponent after scoring 120 points or more are 44-18 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors with a combined 227.4 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (ATLANTA) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 33-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 212.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the UNDER

I know both these sides have been involved in high scoring games in both times they have been on the court thus far this season, but my own projections based on coaching tendencies and the type of usual hoops implemented Im betting on a more conservative affair. 

Lue is 34-19 UNDER off a upset loss as a favorite as the coach of LA CLIPPERS with a combined average of 217.6 ppg scored. (Clippers lost in Utah last time out as favs118-120 )

LA CLIPPERS are 15-4 UNDER in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.3 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SAN ANTONIO) - off a home win, sub par team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 27-6 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

My projections estimate that the Pistons will score between 103 and 108 points. Note: CHARLOTTE is 13-0 UNDER when they allow 103 to 108 points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 209.5 ppg scored. Im also projecting that Charlotte will score between 109 and 114 points. DETROIT is 12-2 UNDER   when they allow 109 to 114 points in a game over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of 214.6 ppg scored.

Advantage to the under based on my projections 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CHARLOTTE) - off a home win, bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 26-6 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 215.3 ppg scored.

Play under

I cannot see alot of defense being played by the Suns this season with Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal running and gunning with all out wreck-less abandon. Im betting your going to need to score at a high rate to compete with the Suns, and tonight thats what Im betting the capable Golden state offense will be up to doing. My own projections estimate both these sides will score 214 or more points . Note:PHOENIX is 23-0 OVER  where both teams score 114 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 246.9 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 31-4 OVER  where both teams score 114 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 248.9 ppg scored. 

Golden State had an average implied point total of 120.1 last season, which is 3.1 points higher than its implied total in Tuesday’s game (117).Last season, Golden State scored more than 117 points in a game 50 times.The 116.1-point average implied total last season for Phoenix is 1.1 more points than the team’s 115-point implied total in this matchup.

PHOENIX is 16-5 OVER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 241.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the over

Im betting Miami comes out here ready to leave everything on the floor in last ditch effort to stave off elimination and that alone will elevate their expected point total. Meanwhile the capable Nuggets playing on their own home floor with championship aspirations just a victory away will reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own in a game I have pegged to eclipse this total. 

MIAMI in their L/35 games when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 223.3 ppg scored.

 NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more are 26-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 37-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

Play over

When these teams played here in Miami back in Feb the Nuggets won 112-108 and my current line and total projections estimate a number closer to 219/220 giving us 3 full possession value with an over wager. I know the Heat will continue to be physical and try disrupt the Nuggets flow . However, with time to adjust and shake off some rust Im betting the Nuggets come out here in very aggressive fashion and force the Heat to reciprocate with some fire works of their own or be blown off the court, which will translate into a higher score than the lines-makers anticipate. DENVER is 18-7 OVER   off a home loss over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.9 ppg scored.  Malone is 15-5 OVER  off a close home loss by 3 points or less as the coach of DENVER with a combined average of 224 ppg scored. 

Over is 7-1 in Nuggets last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

MIAMI is 20-11 OVER  when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season with a combined average of 219.5 ppg scored. 

Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 11-4 in Heat last 15 home games.Over is 19-7 in Heat last 26 games following a straight up win.Over is 13-5 in Heat last 18 games following a ATS win.Over is 20-8 in Heat last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off an upset win as an underdog are 118-74 OVER L/27 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MIAMI) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games are 226-158 OVER L/27 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Play over

After a grueling 7 game series vs the Celtics the Heat will be on tired legs here and in an emotional letdown spot, that will have them unable to play a physical style of defensive ball. On the flip side the Nuggets are well rested and healthy and should come out here on fire ready to run and gun.   This combination Im betting will see this Totals offering eclipsed in more wide open game than the lines-makers are expecting. 

Over is 10-1 in Nuggets last 11 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Denver.Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - after 6 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 38-14 OVER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

Im betting game 7 of this series will be a grueling take no prisoners physical type of event that will have both sides focused on precise mistake free hoops out of transition. That Im betting will make for a lower scoring event that does not eclipse this total.BOSTON is 10-0 UNDER  when facing elimination in a playoff series over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA ( BOSTON/ MIAMI) - in a playoff game, in the 7th game of a playoff series is 60-26 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the under 

The Celtics in their last two games  are playing their best defensive basketball of the season, and Im betting they keep the pressure on tonight against a Miami Heat side that has regressed since game three of this series. Im expecting a very physical game here, as the proverbial  noose gets tighter around the neck of the Heat, and with elimination at hand for the Celtics for them to be even more attentive in transition, which will combine to keep this game on the lower side this offered totals number .BOSTON is 9-0 UNDER  when facing elimination in a playoff series over the last 2 seasons.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 149-94 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. 

The Celtics top tier D, was finally on display last time out holding the Heat to under triple digits and Im betting on more top tier defensive hoops from the Celtics in transition tonight and for the Heat to suffer further offensive regression after a top tier performance in game 3 of this series.BOSTON is 8-0 UNDER when facing elimination in a playoff series over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 201.3 ppg scored.MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER  in road games after scoring 100 points or less this season. with a combined average of 211.4 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 74-39 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

The Lakers are now 1 loss away from losing this series and suffering a sweep at the hands of the Denver Nuggets. Now in desperation mode Im betting on a hugely aggressive effort from the senior laden Lakers, that will see them leave everything on the floor . As has been evident of late,  the Nuggets just wont go away and give this game to the Lakers, but instead fire back with offensive fireworks of their own in a tilt that Im betting eclipses this total. 

LA LAKERS are 30-17 OVER  after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231 ppg scored. 

DENVER is 48-33 OVER  when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.9 ppg scored. Over is 6-1-1 in Nuggets last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 6-1-1 in Nuggets last 8 road games.Over is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 Conference Finals games.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 34-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA LAKERS) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 85-43 OVER  L/27 seasons for a  67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Over is 33-16-2 in the last 51 meetings.Over is 15-7-2 in the last 24 meetings in Los Angeles.

Play over

Because the Lakers are backed into the proverbial corner after going down 2-0 in this series Im betting they come here in aggressive run and gun fashion and the Nuggets will have no choice but  to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks  of their own or be blown of the court. Advantage to the over.

Note: LA LAKERS  in their L/36 games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 231.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 33-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 231.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the over

The Nuggets came out of gate in game 1 running and gunning , but looked a little weary in the 2nd half of that tilt with  the pace dropping perceptively and the Lakers adjusting on defense.  
Im betting on  a more even keeled game here with  key adjustments taking place on both sides of the court which Im betting results in a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total. 

Under is 6-2 in Lakers last 8 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 11-4-1 in Lakers last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Under is 11-3-1 in Nuggets last 15 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 8-3 in Nuggets last 11 home games.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA LAKERS) - an good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 43-18 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA play off Game 2’s after a Game 1 over result , have seen the  under go 41-26 for a 70% conversion rate for bettors  in the last five seasons. 

Play under

The L/3 meetings in this series during the current campaign have all eclipsed this total and my projections once again anticipate a score in the mid 220s which gives is a full possession advantage to the over. Considering the Lakers are a top tier side in  transition on offense while the Nuggets ae a weak transition defense you can bet the Lakers will press which will force the home side to be even more aggressive offensively and what could easily be a run and gun game 1. 

LA LAKERS are 17-6 OVER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 233 ppg going on the scoreboard.LA LAKERS are 23-14 OVER  as a road underdog this season with a combined average of 234.1 ppg scored. 

DENVER is 42-23 OVER  in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 229.7 ppg scored. 

Play on the over

My projections estimate that Golden State will allow 115+ points here tonight. GOLDEN STATE is 25-6 OVER   when they allow 115 to 120 points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 232.6 ppg. Meanwhile, the LA LAKERS are 13-4 OVER   when they score 115 to 120 points in a game this season with a combined average of 237 ppg going on the board. Advantage over.

Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games following a straight up win.Over is 38-15 in Warriors last 53 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 37-17-2 in Warriors last 56 road games.

GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 OVER  in road games after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season with a combined average of 241 ppg scored..GOLDEN STATE is 14-3 OVER  )on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 240.2 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 17-3 OVER  when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.

Ham is 41-26 OVER sub par  defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more  as the coach of LA LAKERS with a combined average of 236.5 ppg scored. Over is 11-2 in Lakers last 13 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Play over

This matchup according to my projections estimate a combined score that eclipses this totals offering and should be closer to 211. Thanks to the Knicks top tier defensive play against another defensive minded team the Cleveland Cavs in their last series this total is now a little tainted in my opinion and offers value for over bettors even if key offensive cog- Randle misses this game for the Knicks.  

NEW YORKs L/10 games  after 3 or more consecutive unders this season a combined score of 218.9 ppg have gone on the scoreboard.

NEW YORK is 17-7 OVER  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 238.3 ppg scored.

MIAMI is 10-2 OVER in April games this season with a combined average of 232.3 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - after allowing 100 points or less 3 straight games are 26-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. with a combined average of 215.6 ppg scored.

Play on the over

We are getting into clutch time in this series, and Im now betting we begin to see a more physical type of basketball that leans on the conservative side. My own projections make this game closer to a 231 which gives us almost two full possessions value on this line offering from the books to the under. 

Under is 20-8-1 in Kings last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 9-4-1 in Warriors last 14 home games.SACRAMENTO is 14-4 UNDER   in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combine average of 230.5 ppg scored.SACRAMENTO is 13-4 UNDER   in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season with a combined average of 227.9 ppg scored.

GOLDEN STATE is 10-2 UNDER  in home games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots this season with a combined average of 225.7 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 22-9 UNDER   in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game with a combined average of 223.9 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - terrible defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 41-19 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 71-28 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

I know these sides have eclipsed the total in 7 straight meetings and there are a ton of over trends. However, Im betting that the Heat will be in bubble mode tonight and will be conservative in transition knowing that the Bucks will come at them with everything they have. That in itself bodes well for a score that does not eclipse this total. 

The Heat are 2nd in ppg allowed and 29th in pace in the league and 30th in ppg production and  we  will see why these stats had been established this season, MIAMI is 14-6 UNDER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season with a combined average 212.6 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI/MILWAUKEE ) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 5th game of a playoff series are 30-4 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with the average score of those 34 tilts clicking in at 202.4 ppg. 

Play under 

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 4

Afternoon pro basketball can sometimes be a little bit slower and low scoring as it takes time for bodies that are used to playing most of their games in the evening to get acclimated to early starts . However, this total is just a little bit over done to the low side according to my estimates even though these two sides have taken part in 3 lower scoring affairs . ( My totals projection took into consideration that NEW YORK is 20-10 OVER  as a home favorite this season with a combined average of 232.3 ppg scored and that in Cleveland last  14 games  as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season have seen a combined average of 216.7 ppg scored. Also Bickerstaff  in 8 road games after a combined score of 185 points or less as the coach of CLEVELAND has seen a combined average of 213.9 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CLEVELAND) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 36-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. with a combined average of 213.1 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more are 25-5 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 215.2 ppg scored.

Play over

My projections make this total closer to 235 which gives us close to 2 full possession advantage to the  under. 

SACRAMENTO is 13-3 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 230.5 ppg scored . 

GOLDEN STATE is 11-3 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with combined average  off 228 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 UNDER  in home games after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better this season with s combined 216 ppg scored.  GOLDEN STATE is 15-3 UNDER   after 4 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons with the combined average of 219 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 54-16 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion. 

Play on the under

Philadelphia poured down 121 points in game 1 for the hefty DD win. The Nets will now have to become more aggressive offensively, while the Sixers will have not problem obliging them with a full blown offensive attack in response. BROOKLYN is 15-5 OVER  in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons.BROOKLYN is 28-9 OVER  when the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons.

PHILADELPHIA is 15-6 OVER  after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better this seasons with combined average of 231.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 77-36 OVER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BROOKLYN) - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 56-25 OVER L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

Entering the play offs Atlanta s offense is hitting on all cylinders averaging 123.6 ppg in their L/5 trips the court, and Im betting they will for the most part keep up that  tiop tier offensive pace tonight in Boston . We know Boston is a solid defensive side, but when pressured can turn up their offense, and thats what Im betting the Celtics will be forced into doing today. BOSTON is 8-1 OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 239.7 ppg scored.

ATLANTA is 11-3 OVER  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combine average of 244.6 ppg scored.ATLANTA is 15-3 OVER  after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season with a combined average of 242.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the over

Chicago has won 3 straight in this series, with all those games eclipsing this offered total.  Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation today. MIAMI is 8-0 OVER  when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.9 ppg scored.

Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 overall. Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 7-0 in Heat last 7 home games.

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CHICAGO) - after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, second half of the season are 41-15 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Miami.

Play on the over 

My projections estimate a combined score that reaches the mid 230s plus here.  With the Wolves defensive stalwart Rudy Gobert out because of suspension, Im betting the now healthy Lakers really push this pace and force a capable and willing Wolves group into a run and gun affair. 

The Lakers ranked 3rd in pace in the NBA this season and 6th in ppg offense and 20th in ppg allowed. (Lakers have gone over in 8 straight games)

The Wolves ranked 18th in ppg allowed and 8th in pace in the NBA and were in the top half of the league in scoring offense.

MINNESOTA is 7-0 OVER   in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season with a combined average of 247.9 ppg scored. (Lakers beat the Wolves 123-111 L/week)

MINNESOTA is 31-19 OVER in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more  over the last 2 seasons.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA LAKERS) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or more  of their shots are 30-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play over

The Bucks will be resting almost the entire core of their team, and Im betting that they will instead concentrate on playing a conservative defensive minded  game behind a coaching staff that recognizes the importance of being disciplined in transition entering post season play. This Im betting results in a lower scoring affair. Also with a depleted lineup last time out the Bucks allowed the Grizzlies to pound down 137 points, they will be more aware here defensively  in this spot play vs the Toronto Raptors who could also rest a big portion of their team.Under is 10-4 in Bucks last 14 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Under is 11-3 in Raptors last 14 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings.

Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Toronto.

Play UNDER 

Minnesota has been off since Tuesday, and will have plenty of energy to run and gun here tonight vs what is usually a poor Spurs defense ranked last in the NBA in ppg allowed and defensive efficiency. The Spurs  are off  129-127 win vs Portland last time out and run the 2nd ranked pace in the NBA and Im betting on more wide hoops tonight against a fresh Wolves side. 

Over is 7-3 in Timberwolves last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Over is 35-16 in Timberwolves last 51 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Over is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 10-4 in Spurs last 14 games following a straight up win.

Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in San Antonio. 

Play on the over

Phoenix has won a season-high seven straight games entering this meeting against the Lakers, and Im betting will push the home team hard today in a tilt I have pegged to be a back forth event that will see aggressive offensive action. With this being a back to back situation for the Suns Im sure they wont get physical and their defense positioning  will suffer. I do also expect the Lakers  James and Anthony to suit up despite of being questionable . The Lakers are trying to avoid playing play in game so all decks should be on the agenda tonight. the most recent meeting  in this series sae a combined 233 points scored. Rinse and repeat . 

Over is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 overall.

Over is 6-1-1 in Suns last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 6-1-1 in Suns last 8 road games.

Play over

My projections estimate a combined score of 225 ppg giving us almost a two two full possession edge on an under wager cashing. 

DALLAS is 12-1 UNDER  off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 204 ppg scored.

CHICAGO is 15-4 UNDER  in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored.

NBA team (DALLAS/CHICAGO) - in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%), in April games are 28-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DALLAS) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 19 or more 3 point shots are 36-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under