The Nets pulled out a 106-105 overtime win over the Eastern Conference-leading Toronto Raptors on Friday night, and will now be on tired legs, and be less than ready to run and gun vs the NY Knicks here tonight. Meanwhile, the Knicks off shooting 39.6 percent shooting from the field in the loss, are a team that is struggling mightily to be consistent offensively. What was horrendous was the Knicks allowed the Celtics to shoot better than 53% in that loss, and now HC Fizdale will demanding his squad play better D, and to be more methodical with their approach. The above combinations Im betting will see this total combined score stay on the low side of the total. 

NEW YORK is 18-8 UNDER  when playing against a below .500 team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of 206.3 ppg scored.BROOKLYN is 28-14 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 212.6 ppg going on the board. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BROOKLYN) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 29-3 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Indiana is a big strong athletic team that bases their successes and failures on their ability to play top tier D, and are allowing just 97.5 ppg at home this season. On the season they are ranked first in ppg allowed and 2nd in defensive rating. I know the the Kings run and in gun in with reckless abandon, but Indiana has the ability to dictate the pace here especially at home. The Pacers are ranked 26th in pace  in the NBA and are methodical in their approach and nothing changes here today. 

INDIANA is 9-0 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons.

INDIANA is 15-5 UNDER in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 202.5 pig scored.INDIANA is 12-4 UNDER versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game this season with a combined average of 204.7 ppg scored.INDIANA is 22-8 UNDER L/30 in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game with a combined average of 200.7 ppg scored. 

  NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (INDIANA) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 39-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

Both these teams can light the scoreboard up, but when quality teams like this get together, a more physical brand of basketball is not unusual. GOLDEN STATE is 29-11 UNDER L/40  in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 with a combined average score of  224.6 ppg scored. Also HC 

Kerr is 20-8 UNDER  revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite as the coach of GOLDEN STATE with a combined average of 211.4 ppg scored. Golden State allowed Milwaukkee to smash them 134-111 at home in their last meeting an now Im betting on them playing down lock down defence and responsible transitional basketball. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MILWAUKEE) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more 38-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

San Antonio are on tired legs as they prepare to play their 6th game in 10 days and  enter this game ranked 29th in the league in  defensive efficiency and 11th in offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, the Lakers rank 9th in ppg in the league, averaging 113.1 ppg and 17th in ppg allowed at 111.1 ppg. When considering both sides current form, and system vs system analysis and player matchup trends, my projections estimate a high scoring affair that eclipses this total. Note: SAN ANTONIO is 8-1 OVER  when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season with a combined average of 233.8 ppg scored. 

These teams combined to put 235 ppg on the board in LA 2 days ato in their last meeting, which was  a back and forth affair, and Im betting on more of the same action here tonight deep in the heart of Texas. 

Over is 6-0-1 in Spurs last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 Friday games.Over is 5-0-1 in Spurs last 6 games following a straight up loss.Over is 8-0 in Spurs last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 7-0 in Spurs last 7 vs. Western Conference.Over is 6-0-1 in Spurs last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 10-1-1 in Spurs last 12 overall.Over is 9-1-1 in Spurs last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Spurs last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 18-7-1 in Spurs last 26 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA LAKERS) - after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games are 74-29 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Boston has been really lighting up the scoreboard of late, scoring 124,128, 118 in their L/3 trips to the floor. Tonight I expect they will continue to roll against a less than consistent NYK defence, that ranks 27th in D efficiency and 26th in points allowed ( 114.4 ppg). What Im betting is that for the Knicks to have no choice but the chase the Celtics and try to post some explosive offensive fire works of their own or be blown off the court in what Im betting will be a  fairly high scoring affair the eclipses this Total. 

My projections estimate that Boston will score within 115 to 121 points. Note: NEW YORK is 10-2 OVER when they allow 112 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 233.8 ppg scored.BOSTON is 8-1 OVER  when they score 112 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 228 ppg scored.

BOSTON is 16-4 OVER  after 4 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons ands 11-2 OVER  after scoring 110 points or more 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (BOSTON) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a bad team (25 to 40%) are 28-8 OVER L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Washington is on a two game win streak thanks to paying better attention to defence, and being much more careful in transition.WASHINGTON is 17-7 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.7 ppg scored. Meanwhile, Atlanta continues to struggle to score consistently, with the 30th ranked offensive efficiency despite of procuring the No 1 pace in the league  .  Im betting despite of Hawks trying to run and gun , their efficiency , thanks to missing one of their key offensive players Prince will see their flow thwarted as well as their total output.   Meanwhile, the Wizards will remain steadfast in their wish to play a better controlled brand of basketball. What Im betting on here is a lower scoring game than the hefty number might indicate. 

WASHINGTON is 9-0 UNDER  vs. struggling  rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 5+/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 202.7 ppg scored.WASHINGTON is 11-2 UNDER in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.6 ppg scored. 

ATLANTA is 22-7 UNDER  vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 210.2 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

Bulls take the court against the Pacers,  with associate head coach Jim Boylen  taking over as head coach after Hoiberg was tied yesterday. QUOTE "You might see a bit different style of the offensive end as we get going," Boylen told reporters at his introductory press conference Monday. "You got to put your hand print on it and make it yours. But you have to realize there's a level of shock that the players have to deal with." END QUOTE The shock that Boylen is speaking about Im betting will see the Bulls play a more methodical game plan, that will help keep this game slower paced then their used to and will result in a lower scoring game than the linesmakers expect. With Indiana on 3 days rest after a west coast road trip I expect they will be fresh enough to play some strong D, something the coaching staff have been emphasizing of late. 

Chicago has gone under in 10 of their L/13 games. Indiana has gone under in 3 straight. 

CHICAGO is 10-1 UNDER  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 207.9 ppg scored.INDIANA is 10-1 UNDER  in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 199.5 ppg going on the board.INDIANA is 20-5 UNDER  after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 204.2 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CHICAGO) - after playing 3 consecutive road games, playing with 2 days rest are 51-18 UNDER  L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

Washington topped New York 108-95 earlier this season at home, and Im expecting the same type of lower scoring affair once again . 

NEW YORK is 29-16 UNDER L/45  when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 208.3 ppg scored.WASHINGTON is 18-6 UNDER  in road games after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 209.4 ppg scored.

 HC Fizdale is 12-2 UNDER  in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games in all games he has coached with a combined average of 186.6 ppg scored.

NBA  teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (WASHINGTON) - in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%) are 60-20 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW YORK) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%) are 25-4 UNDER for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (NYK/ WASHINGTON) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%)are 24-4 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER 

The Clippers come at you in waves both from the starters and the bench  averaging 117.5 points per game, fourth in the league, and have been held to fewer than 100 only once. Im betting they force the Mavericks into a fast paced game via their 9th ranked pace. It must also be noted that the Clippers defence ranks 22nd in the NBA allowing 112+ ppg and Dallas behind an offence that averages more than 115 ppg at home should be successful converting against  their soft defence regularly tonight. Everything is pointing to this being a high scoring affair.

LA CLIPPERS are 8-1 OVER  after a combined score of 235 points or more this season with a combined average score of 233.3 ppg scored.

NBAVteams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA CLIPPERS) - after scoring 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 56-28 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

After Butler appeared in his last game with Minnesota on Nov. 9 at Sacramento, the Wolves were allowing 117.7 points per game on 47.4 percent shooting. In the last nine games, since Butler was traded the Wolves are now allowing just  99.3 points on 41.8 percent shooting. This is now a much better defensive team, and tonight against another top tier defensive team, the Boston Celtics  ranked 2nd overall in defensive efficiency (104)  in the league and 4th in ppg allowed 103.9 Im expecting a combined score that remains on the low side of the Total .

MINNESOTA is 11-1 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 212.9 ppg scored.BOSTON in their L/34 games after a huge blowout win by 30 or more have seen a combined average of 187.4 ppg scored. ( Celtics smashed Cleveland 128-95 last night and will now be on tired legs)

Under is 7-1 in Timberwolves last 8 games following a ATS win.Under is 12-2 in Timberwolves last 14 overall.Over is 6-1 in Timberwolves last 7 Saturday games.Under is 6-1 in Timberwolves last 7 games following a straight up win.Under is 6-1 in Timberwolves last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 6-1 in Timberwolves last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 home games.Under is 10-2 in Timberwolves last 12 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Timberwolves last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 6-2 in Timberwolves last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Under is 10-4 in Timberwolves last 14 games playing on 2 days rest. 

NBA team (BOSTON) - after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against opponent after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 50-12 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 190.6 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

These two teams are explosive offensively to say the least. The Raptors rank 3rd in offensive output in the league averaging 117 ppg and 2nd in offensive efficiency, behind the 11th fastest pace. Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors, rank 6th in  offence averaging 116 ppg and 3rd in offensive efficiency, behind the leagues 15th ranked pace .  there outputs and pace were slowed for a while as they got used to playing with super star Curry, but now their picking up their speed and play Dubs ball. The Warriors do have some key injuries with Draymond Green and Step curry, out, but lately the team is looking more cohesive,  and playing pretty good attack orientated ball , scoring 125,117,116 in consecutive games and will have no choice but to push the ball up court quickly vs a dangerous quick strike or be blown off the court.The Raptors have lost eight consecutive meetings with the Warriors, and knowing this Im betting they will be all business and ready to really lay down beating, and like I said above, the Warriors will have to respond. This will make Im betting for a high scoring affair that goes over this offered number.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (TORONTO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 62-24 OVER L/22 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 230.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 68-28 OVER for a  71% conversion rate for bettors  L/22 seasons with a combined average of 230.1 ppg going on the board. 

Play on OVER 

I have watching this Totals number for over night action and now this morning and  Im ready to act and recommend we take an under stance. Washington stayed at home and defeated the Houston Rockets, 135-131, in overtime Monday night. At the same time New Orleans was struggling in a 124-107 home loss to the Boston Celtics. Both need to correct deficient defensive issues , and both are working hard to do so especially  the Pelicans HC Gentry, who has finally realized  running and gunning out of the gate has been a catastrophe for a team that has lost 4 straight. The Pelicans have allowed an average of 36.3 first-quarter points in the last three games. HC Gentry response is as follows: "If you do that," Gentry said, "more than likely you're going to be playing uphill for the other 36 minutes. We've got to get off to better starts so that when we do go on a run, we're creating separation and not just pulling even." END QUOTE. Look for New Orleans to be more methodical in the first quarter tonight, and start this game concentrating on playing better D in transition, which will result in a lower scoring game overall than many might expect. 

WASHINGTON is 9-1 UNDER L/10  off 2 or more consecutive home wins over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.4 ppg scored.WASHINGTON is 12-3 UNDER in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 212.6 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 27-3 UNDER L/22 seasons with a combined average of 207.8 ppg going on the board. 

Play UNDER 

Los Angeles will take on the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday night in a game I have pegged to go over the set total. Its interesting that my own projections estimate that both these teams will score more than 105 points. Note:DENVER is 41-4 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 236.8 ppg going on the board.LA LAKERS are 43-9 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 235.5 ppg scored. Im basing tonights OVER call on my own estimations. 

The Lakers have averaged 114.4 ppg on offence on the road this season, while allowing 111.4 ppg . Meanwhile, Denver has scored an average of 113.8 ppg at home. 

Play OVER 

On Nov 11 the Spurs put 133 points on the board in a  fast paced win vs the Chicago Bulls ( ranked 23 in ppg allowed 113) . In the return matchup Im betting on the Spurs using a high energized attack to try to duplicate the last games successful results, which in turn will make for a higher scoring tilt than the lines makers expect. I know the Bulls are having problems scoring, but Im betting their going to be forced into chasing a team that matches up well again them  or be blown of the court and for this Total to be eclipsed. Note: San Antonio owns the 21st ranked Defensive efficiency in the league and not longer is a stalwart defensive team. ( Defensive Rating is for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 possessions)

SAN ANTONIO is 12-2 OVER  after allowing 120 points or more over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average score of 218.7 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 27-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 226.7 ppg scored with no score going below the 213 point plateau.

Play OVER 

The Knicks have been offensively better of late, but their underlying offensive problems, are Im betting still going to be an issue , especially today vs a physical and methodical Grizzlies team that works hard on grinding teams down and disturbing their flow.   The Knicks are averaging 108.9 ppg ranking 29th in the league, and a slower pace that ranks 20th overall.  Meanwhile, the the Grizzlies rank 30th in pace and 1st and Defence, and 30th in offence. The above combinations Im betting will result in lower scoring tilt that does not eclipse this total. Note:New York  has not scored  more than 100 points in any of its previous seven trips to Memphis and Im betting on a repeat performance here in this spot.MEMPHIS is 25-12 UNDER  in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 203.3 ppg going on the board. 

MEMPHIS is 10-1 UNDER  in home games after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 196.6 ppg scored.NEW YORK is 10-1 UNDER after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games with a combined average of 193.6 ppg scored, with NYK averaging just 96.6 ppg in offense. 

Play UNDER 

Minnesota is playing better without the traded Jimmy Butler but their offence does not have the explosiveness it did with him in the lineup. It must be noted that MINNESOTA is 9-1 UNDER in November games this season with a combined average of 213 ppg scored.   Meanwhile, Chicago is struggling offensively ,and as a result has gone under in 9 of their L/12 and have been held under 99 points in 7 of their L/9 games. the Bulls played last night scored 96 point sin a loss, and are on tired legs here and could easily find themselves muted offensively again. Everything points to this being another game where both teams keep a even pace and for the total combined score to stay on the low side of the number. 

The Timberwolves have gone under in 5 straight as a favorite with a combined average of 204 ppg scored.

Under is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.Under is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 Saturday games. Under is 9-2 in Bulls last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MINNESOTA) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%). are 51-19 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 211.5 ppg going on the board.

Play UNDER 

The Washington Post reported about on-court confrontations between John Wall and Jeff Green, and between Bradley Beal and Austin Rivers at a practice last week and that after those incidents Wall swore at Brooks and Beal sounded off to general manager Ernie Grunfeld. This report quantifies what is obvious and that is that this  Wizards team is in disarray, and playing wide open undisciplined basketball. Tonight I expect Torontos vaunted offence ranked 5th in the league behind the 10th fastest pace  to pound the stumbling  Wizards 29th ranked defence mercilessly while Washington behind 10th ranked offence and 7th fastest pace  will  have no choice but to chase and respond in run and gun fashion or be blown off the court. This Im betting results in a high scoring affair that eclipses this number.

TORONTO is 8-0 OVER  in home games after a game outrebounding opponent by 15 or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 233.6 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are 26-5 OVER L/22 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play OVER 

Orlando enters this game with a hot hand from the field converting at more than 50% with their FGs in their L/3 games, but in the past this has been a signal for downturn in offensive efficiency and production as is evident by the following trend: ORLANDO is 13-3 UNDER in home games after 3 straight games where they made 50% of their shots with a combined average of 193 ppg scored. Meanwhile, Toronto enters this game off a fine defensive performance last time out, allowing the Bulls just 83 points, as they paid alot of attention to their stopping abilities  in transition .  That stronger defensive performance stemmed from criticism they received after suffering a previous loss to the Celtics, that saw some in the media call them soft defensively  and portray them as reverting back to their old ways under former HC Casey. The truth is the Raptors are a solid defensive team  ranking 6th in the league in efficiency, and With that said, Im expecting more of the same stopping action from the Raptors in the spot vs a Magic team ranked 21st in offense in the league behind a 21 st ranked pace..  

TORONTO is 17-4 UNDER  in road games vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 202.1 ppg going on the board. ORLANDO is 24-12 UNDER  versus good passing teams, averaging 23  or more assists/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.7 ppg getting scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (TORONTO) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 38-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

The Boston Celtics and the Toronto Raptors are front runners for a Eastern Conference championship, and when these two hard nosed competitors meet this evening, Im expecting a very physical affair  that will base alot of action on each team focusing on  transitional defence. The Raptors rank 9th in defensive efficiency while the Celtics rank 1st in Defensive efficiency.  Im betting on  a post season type affair that will not be very free flowing and a end result of a combined score that remains on the low side of the Total. None of the L/5 meetings in this series have eclipsed the total.

TORONTO is 16-5 UNDER in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 200.9 ppg scored.  

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (TORONTO) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 4-0 UNDER this season and  36-14 UNDER  L/22 seasons for  a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Golden State Warriors and the Houston Rockets will bang heads tonight in what promises to be a physical affair. The Warriors will be without the often injured Step Curry but are expected to  have Draymond Green back in the lineup  but may not play a great deal becasue of a toe issue, which should slow their offensive production and see them more concentrated on sound defensive play. The Warriors as per news reports and obvious on court confrontations among themselves , are showing us what its like when this many big egos are put into the same dressing room. But when the game starts their still a team to contend with and Im betting come out here and play hard as a team. Meanwhile, the Rockets thanks to keeping pretty boy Carmelo Anthony on the sidelines , are a more rugged team , behind a under rated defense continues to improve as is evident by a 6th overall ppg defesnive ranking and a methodical calculated pace that is 29th in the league. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 73-31 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Portland has gone under the total in 7 of their L/8 games thanks to playing a top tier brand of defence, that has seen them hold 4 different opponents to 93 points or less. The Blazers own the leagues 5th best D ,both in points allowed  106.2 and efficiency 105.9 and will primed to grind the free wheeling Lakers down in this spot and not allow them flow. This Im betting takes a more than enough points off this totals number to seen this score stay on the low side of the digits. Note: Lakers games have had some bloated Totals attached to them which has resulted in 7 of their L/8 games and and 5 in row failing to eclipse the total . The L/7 meetings here in LA between these two teams have stayed under the total.

Under is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 overall.Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 games following a ATS win.Under is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Under is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 overall.Under is 5-0-1 in Lakers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 3-0-1 in Lakers last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 5-0-1 in Lakers last 6 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-0-1 in Lakers last 5 home games.Under is 6-0-1 in Lakers last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 vs. Western Conference.Under is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-0 in Lakers last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Lakers last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 7-2 in Lakers last 9 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 5-2-1 in Lakers last 8 Wednesday games.

 Portland is 13-4 UNDER  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.6 ppg scored.PORTLAND is 23-10 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 205.8 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PORTLAND) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 46-19 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA LAKERS) - after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games are 49-20 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

The Clippers' own a  defensive-minded backcourt buoyed by  Patrick Beverley and Avery Bradley. This duo and other parts of this team were put together, in part, to  deal with explosive backcourts like the one from the they will play tonight. However, that talented  backcourt of the Warriors has some injuries, and could possibly be without Curry tonight . Tonight Im betting , that the Clippers HC Head coach Doc Rivers  will use two full rotations of players, to be fresh enough to be physical and control the Warriors speed. This should mute some flow from this game, and thus scratch a few points off the expected combined score, in a game Im betting that will result in a under wager cashing for us in this spot. 

LA CLIPPERS are 117-85 UNDER  in home games after a non-conference game with the combined average score of 197.2 ppg scored.LA CLIPPERS are 80-49 UNDER in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game with a combined average of 198.1 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 38-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 216 ppg going n the score board. 

Play UNDER 

The Raptors can run and gun behind an explosive offense , but their defence is under rated and currently ranked 8th in DEF Rating efficiency (106.7 ppg)  behind the 10th ranked pace. Meanwhile, the Pelicans, in the early part of this season were seen as a all out one attacking team, that trys to outscore their opponents on the run. But their last two wins have been predicated by playing top tier brand of defence, that kept those opponents at 99 points or less. Im betting the success of those above mentioned outings and victories will see Gentrys troops alot more focused on playing top tier defence in a unfriendly road environment against a dangerous opponent. Look for an expect a more muted total combined score than the linesmakers number might suggest.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW ORLEANS) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 37-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a 216combined average score of 216 ppg going on the board.

Play on the UNDER 

Milwaukee comes at their opponents with a run and gun take no prisoners attitude, and essentially force any all opponents to partake with some offensive fireworks of their own this  or be blown off the court. The Bucks rank 4th in pace and 2nd in offence (121 .7 ppg) in the league a even though the Nuggets operate at a slower pace, Im betting they will have to up their speed or like I said get crushed by a high flying group. The Nuggets are on a couple days rest so they will be ready . One last thing, I know the thin air of Denver, can take its toll on visiting squads, but the Bucks are one of the leagues best conditioned teams and should have no problems with energy despite of playing last night. 

The L/2 meetings (lat season) have seem combined scores of 253 and 257 poinss going on the board. 

DENVER is 47-24 OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 227.5 ppg scored. MILWAUKEE is 13-4 OVER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or better ) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.7ppg scored. 

MILWAUKEE is 13-4 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.4 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 26-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a combined average of 226.5 ppg going on the board.

Play OVER 

This is a Kings team that will be playing the second night of a home back-to-back games, and Im expecting them to be more tempered in their approach tonight on tired legs. The Kings last 4 home games have stayed under the Total, and it must be noted that SACRAMENTO is 16-4 UNDER versus explosive offensive teams like the Lakers - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 208.8 ppg on the scoreboard. I know the Lakers on a couple days rest should be fresh, and ready to run but with addition of veteran Tyson Chandler into the Lakers lineup I expect the way the Lakers play will be more balanced with a greater respect and attention placed on playing good defence. The Lakers early season defensive inefficiencies and their explosive offensive weapons have seen recent games see high totals attached to their tilts, and as a result these over compensations have seen 4 straight games stay under the total, and tonight Im betting this Total is also to high. 

SACRAMENTO is 14-4 UNDER  after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons and overall is 24-9 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 3 season with the combined average score of the home games clicking in at 205.8 ppg. SACRAMENTO in their L/8 home games after allowing 110 points or more 3 straight games have seen a combined average score of 199.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SACRAMENTO) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 36-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Sixers played an intense game against Charlotte last night, winning 133-132 in OT and will now be playing their 5th game since Nov 3.  Needless to say the Sixers should be on tired legs and in not way or shape ready to run here tonight and will have to rely to an extent on  their defence to be competitive which is ranked 10th in the league in efficiency   Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are back to being a team that was feared prior to last season, behind a  top tier D , as is evident by having held 5 diff opponents under 97 points and rank No.1 in the league in points allowed   (100.6 ) and 30th in pace . Their  29th  ranked offense tells a story of a methodical side, that bases it successes and failures on defence and tonight Im betting nothing changes. 

MEMPHIS is 10-1 UNDER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 205.6 ppg scored.PHILADELPHIA in their L/40 in road games off a close home win by 3 points or less have seen a combined average score of 195.8 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MEMPHIS/PHILADELPHIA ) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in November games are 38-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 204.3 ppg going on the board. 

Play UNDER 

Portland can run and gun with the best of teams, but they can also be very tough to deal with defensively, as is evident by  having  held 3 of their L/6 opponents to 93 points or less. The teams they limited were Indiana ( 93) Houston (85) and Minnesota (81). Against this type of free wheeling Clippers team, Im betting behind their 5th best ppg D, and a pace that ranks 17th in the league they force the visitor to adapt to their pace, which will take the Clippers flow away and as result will effect the total offensive combined output of this affair. 

Under is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 overall.Under is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 5-2 in Clippers last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600

PORTLAND is 21-10 UNDER  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with at the average combined score clicking in at 205.8 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 36-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Chicago enters this road game  vs New Orleans banged up with Lauri Markkanen (elbow), Kris Dunn (knee), Bobby Portis (knee) and Denzel Valentine (ankle) all expected to miss Wednesday's game which should slow them offensively tonight in the Bayou. Note: Chicago ranks 22nd in offence in the league, and 25th in pace. Meanwhile, New Orleans is playing their first home game since embarking on a gruelling 5 game road trip against some explosive opponents that have seen a lot of  offense  ( Denver, San Antonio, Portland, Godlen St. Oklahoma City). Still recuperating and getting acclimated to playing at home again Im betting they won't be fresh enough to want to run and gun with wreck-less abandon and will be also out to make sure their defensive haemorrhaging stops which has them ranked last in the league ppg allowed. My projections estimate a projected combined score in the range of 224 which gives us value on this number. Ive also taken into consideration rule changes which have added to offensive outputs , so our cushion according to those estimations give us an edge to the UNDER. 

HC Gentry Pelicans   in their L/21  home games when playing against a struggling  team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%)  have seen a combined average of 220.4 ppg scored. Gentry L/19   in home games after playing 3 consecutive road games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS has seen he and his opponents coming to average 222.7 ppg in offensives output. 

CHICAGO in its L/24 games  as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 216.5 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CHICAGO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a struggling team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 26-3 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

 These teams can be explosive offensively but the lines-makers are in my humble opinion over estimating total output . I base my own assumptions/projections on my power ranking systems, and head to head systems matchup analysis. They point to a total closer to 224 , which gives us value to the under on this current number. Yes, their have been some higher scoring variables because of some rule changes  in the NBA this season but I have calculated that into those above mentioned projections. 

PORTLAND is 20-9 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 207 ppg going on the board.MILWAUKEE in their L/25 games after after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 224.3 ppg go on the board. 

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Portland.

NBA team (PORTLAND/MILWAUKEE) - after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against opponent after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 48-12 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind with the average combined score clicking in at 189.6 ppg. 

Play on the UNDER 

 The Wizards enter this game ranked last in the league in points allowed (129.3)  and were booed off the floor this past Friday night by their fans after a ugly 134-111 effort.  I  now expect the Wizards a side that has a 25th ranked off Ranking (106.1) to bring some energy to this tilt and to be more attentive and methodical in transition which Im betting takes some points off what is expected by the lines makers from the Wizards and from both teams. Note: Under is 4-0 in Wizards last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.Meanwhile, the Knicks behind a young roster have settled down after a slow start and are playing more disciplined system, that has them ranked 9th in points allowed, behind a pace that is ranked 24th in the league (98.7) and a offence that is ranked 23rd in the league (107.3 ppg). What Im betting on happening here is for the Knicks to continue their current form, and for Washington to try to be more stout defensively, which will result in a score that does not eclipse this Total.

Under is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Under is 5-1 in Knicks last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Under is 4-0-1 in Wizards last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

NEW YORK is 45-29 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 209.8 ppg.

WASHINGTON's L/50 games  against Atlantic division opponents over the last 3 seasons has seen a combined average score of 218.2 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW YORK) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 23-3 UNDER 22 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.  

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - excellent free throw shooting team (79% or more) against a good free throw shooting team (76-79%) are 62-28 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Indiana is  a defence first team enters this game against Boston with the 3rd ranked points per game allowed D at 102.9ppg, while their offensive output is ranked at 22nd in the league (108.6 ppg) , Their pace is ranked 29 out of 30 teams (96.4). Meanwhile, the Cletics a team becomign well know for their defensive proficiencies, is ranked first in points allowed (99.5 ppg) and first in defensive rating (99.2) and 17th in pace (100.3) and just 28th in offensive output averaging (104.2 ppg). Today I expect two teams that key their defensive abilities o their successes and failures to continue on this course and for this contest to stay on the low side of the Total. 

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (INDIANA) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in November games are 34-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 203 ppg.

Play UNDER 

The NBA season started with a lot off fast paced games as the exuberance of a new season on fresh legs made for for some high scoring affairs. Now with a few games under them, I expect the league as a whole to start to centre some thought on playing a more energy saving type of hoops.

Focusing on these two teams  the Charlotte Hornets and the Toronto Raptors  in particular it must be noted that they have now played 3 games in less in 5 days so running and gunning at full tilt for long stretches may not be sensible option  tonight if the coaches of these teams hope to keep their troops fresh during what can be a gruelling extended schedule. Also knowing the Raptors current mind set about playing a more disciplined defensive style this season behind the leagues top two way forward Kawhi Leonard, it makes a lot of sense that they will be out to slow down a Hornets team that looks to be in an offensive groove at the moment, with a more methodical approach. 

My own projections for this game suggest a maximum combined total of 220 points being scored, and with a 6 point edge according to my own numbers I feel like we have enough value to take the under here.  Also from an extensive data base of league wide trends no average combined total from a 2000 games sample size went above my 220 point projections. While new  data can change in the flash of an eye and nothing is a sure bet, I still feel we have an edge on this slightly bloated Total. Its all about slight edges in our battle with the books and their astute line making abilities.

From the six combined games these teams have played only one has seen more than 225 points scored, and that was the Raptors 117-113 win vs Washington. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 105 points or more are 24-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind with a combined average of 211.5 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

Looking at last years matchups in this series , The Kings beat the Pelicans, 116-109 in overtime and 114-101, in New Orleans while the Pelicans prevailed in both games in Sacramento, 114-106 and 114-101. Im expecting a similar type combed score here tonight. I know both teams put up a boatload full of points in wide open tilts last time out, but a more muted effort after exerting that much energy  and converting at such a high level is a above average probability occurrence in this spot. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (NEW ORLEANS) - off a road win by 10 points or more, team that had a winning record last season are 27-6  UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking at 204 ppg. Also From an extensive data base of more than 2000 games played in the invoicing the Pelicans and other NBA teams the average of tonights  score in similar multiple trends situations is in range between 217 and 224 ppg. So despite of their being no obvious guarantees their still is evidence of this number being slightly bloated thus giving us value.

Play UNDER 

The public with a little bit of irrational exuberance  has hit this game hard to go over on the opening Total. However, I myself am expecting  a more constrained defensive effort from both teams as the game progresses despite of this being the opening game of the season on prime time tv. Both teams were ranked top 5 in overall efficiency and overall defensive stats last season, and both were proficient in limiting FG to under 50%. 

Looking at the Boston Celtics they are now introducing two new cogs into their lineup and it may slow them to an extent as Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward come back from injuries. Im betting both despite of being big time scorers  take time to  acclimated to the speed of the game  after being off for extended periods of time and it  will take time before they become more cohesive and  jell with their team-mates. Add to that the Sixers usually play at a much faster pace, so the Celtics who had a 102.9 defensive rating at home last season, will primed to slow these guys down as much as possible, in order to throw them out of rhythm and control the pace to their liking. Last years play off experience Im betting pays off here this evening. 

BOSTON L/62 games when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 201.3 ppg go on the board. 

These teams went under in 3 of 4 meetings last season. The one that did go over was on neutral court in London England. 

Play UNDER 

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - Golden St. leads 1-0

Both sides actually played decent defense in game 1 in an intense affair, where LeBron James stood tall as the Cavaliers top scorer and two way threat. The Cavs played well and still lost, so now I'm expecting the Cavs to take a no prisoners nothing to lose attitude and go balls to the walls in an all out  attack mode here ere in game 2 .  I'm also  betting defense takes a  back seat and instead an all out offensive explosion based on a fast transitional game to be the this agenda. Note: Cleveland  has gone OVER 6 straight times as a underdog off a game as a pup where  Lebron James was the high scorer, eclipsing the number by an average of 18 ppg with the total combined score clicking at 239+ ppg. Meanwhile, the Warriors  have gone over 8 straight times by more than 14 ppg with more than one day of rest off a 10 plus point victory  as   home chalk when facing a team they have beaten at least two straight times.

CLEVELAND is 30-17 OVER   off a road loss over the last couple of  seasons with a combined average score of 221 ppg getting scored.CLEVELAND is 17-8 OVER   after allowing 115 points or more this season with a combined average of 225.7 ppg.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - after scoring 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 60-24 OVER  L/21 years for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CLEVELAND) - revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more, playing with 2 days rest are 26-8 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1


This series very much favors the Golden State Warriors. The Cavs have shown a lot of weaknesses in these play offs, and the Warriors with a championship now clearly in sight will come at the Cavaliers with a take no prisoners attitude . The biggest weakness for the Cavaliers has been their defense this season, and I'm expecting we see the Dubs No.1 ranked offense to really show us how explosive they are here tonight. Note: Cleveland is ranked 29th in the NBA Defensive effecnicy rating ( 111.9) .

The Cavaliers no. 5 ranked offense (110.9 ppg) behind LeBron James will have no choice but to answer back or be blown off the court in humiliating fashion, which I'm betting will contribute to this combined score easily eclipsing this total.

Over is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 NBA Championship games.Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 NBA Championship games.

The Cavs have gone over 8 straight times as a 7+ point dog with two-plus days rest when facing a side that beat them two straight times, going over by an average of more than 15 ppg. The Warriors have gone OVER in 6 straight times by an average of 16.5 ppg with more than one day of rest off a road victory in a road game facing an opponent averaging fewer than four blocks per game.

CLEVELAND is 31-14 OVER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220+ ppg going on the board. GOLDEN STATEs L/69 home games as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points have seen a combined average score of 222.7 ppg scored. Five of the L/6 times these teams have met have seen this Totals number eclipsed.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CLEVELAND/GOLDEN STATE ) - in the 1rst game of a playoff series 28--8 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 219.4 ppg going on the board.

Play OVER

Game 7 - Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets (Tied 3-3)

Since this series started I have stated that it would be won by the best defense, and not the explosive offenses these teams have exhibited all season long. For the most part both teams have done a tremendous job of slowing each other down and the games have consistently stayed on the low side of the total and I'm betting nothing changes tonight. It must be noted that Golden State have only played two tilts all season in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted and they came during this series. Meanwhile, the Rockets have played only five contests this season where they have had fewer than 14 assists. Three of the five have happened during this series. These teams tell a story about the consistency of both these under rated defenses.

The Rockets have gone under 13 straight times at home off a game as a underdog going against an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game staying under by almost 18 ppg. The Warriors have gone under 7 straight times with less than five days rest after a game in which they had three-plus players with twenty-plus points going under by an average of 13.7 ppg.

Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 Conference Finals games.Under is 16-5 in Rockets last 21 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 35-16 in Rockets last 51 vs. Western Conference.Under is 34-16-1 in Rockets last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.



Under is 5-1 in Warriors' last 6 road games.
Under is 16-5 in Rockets' last 21 vs. NBA Pacific.
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.Under is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 Conference Finals games.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 92-49 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (HOUSTON) - after 3 straight games being outrebounded by opponent by 5 or more are 83-46 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3

I'm betting this deciding game 7 will be an all out nasty physical affair that stays on the low side of the number. Boston will be out to pressure James and with Love out with an injury  concentrate on making the super stars life miserable.  In this series, James has averaged 39 points per game at home, 27.7 per in the three games in Boston, which is more than 11 ppg less. .Cleveland's veteran core has struggled with their offensive game in Boston and the defense I expect to be ready to compete in what should be an all out hard-core defensive tit for tat punchem out  battle.  note: BOSTON is 12-3 UNDER  at home when the line is +3 to -3 over dating back to last season with the average combined score of 195.3 ppg scored. The Celtics have also gone UNDER 8 straight times, when the line is within 3 of pick off a defeat as an away dog when going against  an opponent averaging less than 4 blocks per game, staying under by more than 20 ppg.

Also the Celtics  have  gone under 8 straight times by more than 14 points  off a game as a underdog in which they scored less than 15% of their points from free throws .Meanwhile,  Cleveland has gone under 9 straight times as a pup off a win as a home chalk  in which their opposition shot under 60% from the free throw line. Shooting badly from the charity stripe is sometimes related to exhaustion issues , which both sides will exhibit here this evening and this will also contribute to a lower scoring affair than the linesmakers might expect.

Under is 4-1 in the L/5 meetings here in Boston. Cleveland has gone under in 15 of their 21 after an ATS win which happened in game 6.

Play UNDER

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - HOU Leads 3-2

This series is becoming intense and defense and not offense I'm betting will win this series. Golden State needs this game badly, or a surprising elimination from the post season will be on tomorrows media agenda. With that said, you can bet the Dubs will come out with all guns blazing, but the Rockets under rated D, will be primed to slow them down. On the other end of the court , Houston 's offense has been sputtering , and James Harden is slumping offensively and Chris Paul is out, so great deal of emphasis for the Rockets will center on their defense. Under the total is my call this evening.

 Golden State has gone under 16 straight times  as a rested favorite of at least five points when they are off a game in which they rebounded 15% or less of their own misses. Houston  has gone UNDER 11 straight times by an average of more than 13 ppg after a game with 8+ lead changes and has stayed under 8 straight times by more than 17.6 ppg with less than two days rest off a home win when they are facing a side that is averaging more than five blocks per game.

HOUSTON is 16-4 UNDER versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less  free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season with the combined average score of 201.2 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 14-3 UNDER after a win by 6 points or less this season with a combined score of  203.9 ppg scored.

GOLDEN STATE is 34-18 UNDER   in home games in all playoff games since 1996 with t combined average of 205.8 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 48-23 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - BOS Leads 3-

This is a big game, and neither of these teams want to make mistakes here. With that said, I'm betting on a methodical and  very physical game especially from the Celtics as they look to slow down the Cavaliers sometimes explosive offensive attack via newly implemented bigger lineup. But don't underestimate the Cavs ability to push back and push back hard as is evident by the following trends.Cleveland have gone under 16 straight times  with less than two days rest after a game as a road dog in which their opponent shot under 40% from the field. In their last eight tilts  under those perimeters the Cavaliers have  allowed an average of just  90.9 ppg. 

BOSTON is 16-4 UNDER  in the 6th game of a playoff series since 1996 with the average combined score clicking in at 182.4 ppg. Boston has gone UNDER 10 straight times by an average of more 12 ppg  as a dog with rest after a game as a home favorite in which they scored a least 18 fast break points .

Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 games following a straight up loss. Under is 11-4 in Cavaliers last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CLEVELAND) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after scoring 90 points or less are 87-48 UNDER L/21 seasons for 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER

 Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

The last two meetings in this series have stayed under by more than 20 points. At the start of this series I suggested that the series would be won by the team that exhibited the best ability to control the others explosive offense. I'm expecting both sides to be physical tonight when defending and for them to move the ball around a lot when in the offensive end , which will result in a lot of clock eating taking place which I'm betting will result in a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers are obviously expecting. 
  
 The  Rockets have gone under 12 straight times with rest off a victory as a dog in which they shot under 40% from the field,  and have gone under 13 straight times at home    when the line is within 3 of pick after a win in which they made fewer field goals than their opponent. 
  Meanwhile, the Warriors have gone under 8 straight times with less than two days rest off a loss as a favorite when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home. 

HOUSTON is 15-4 UNDER  versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less  free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 201.7 ppg going on the board.HOUSTON is 21-8 UNDER  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14  or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 209.2 ppg. HOUSTON is 13-3 UNDER  after a win by 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 204.6 ppg getting scored. Houston's HC D'Antoni is 30-6 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average of 212.6 ppg scored.

Golden States HC Kerr is 18-5 UNDER  L/23 revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7or more with the combined average score clicking in at 209.6 ppg.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 27-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate on the blind for bettors.

Play UNDER
  
 
  
 

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

Cleveland had a hard time finding their scoring touch in the first two games of this series, here in Boston, but I'm betting they solved their offensive  problems and the way Celtics HC Stevens was playing them. With that said, I now expect the Cavs to continue with a cohesive attack, and for the Celtics to come back with some offensive fire works of their own here in their own building, where they play their best hoops,  in a tilt I have pegged to go over the number.  Note: Cleveland has seen a combined average of 217.8 ppg scored on the road this season while the Celtics have seen a combined average of 206.5 ppg scored on their won home court. I'm betting on the combined score to fall in between these to totals parameters tonight. Note: BOSTON is 15-4 OVER when they allow 100 to 105 points in a game this season with the combined average score clicking in at 208.8 ppg.

The Cavaliers have gone OVER 15 straight times by more than 18 ppg  with rest off a home game when their last four games are L-L-W-W and their opponent is off a loss. The Celtics have gone OVER 17 straight times  off a loss in which they had a basket-assisted percentage (BAP) of 80% or less, and at least nine percentage points higher than their opponent's BAP.

BOSTON is 22-10 OVER   in home games versus below defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of 221.7 ppg going on the board.BOSTON is 14-4 OVER   in home games in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of 214.9 ppg scored.

Play OVER

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - BOS Leads 2-0

I finally expecting for the Cavaliers to come out here in front of their own fans and leave everything on the floor as they make an effort to make a comeback in this series down 2-0. Last time out  James had 42 points for the Cavs,  and Love 22 ,but the rest of team looked old bored and worn out. Its not like they cant wake up as a group on occasion,  as was evident vs the Pacers and Raptors , because they can. With that said, tonight  I'm  now betting the Cavs as a whole  after that embarrassment  will be firing on all cylinders offensively and that they will force the Celtics into reciprocating with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown of the court. My own projections estimate that both teams will hit the 105 point plateau. Note: BOSTON is 20-1 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season and CLEVELAND is 24-7 OVER  in home games when they allow 100 to 105 points in a game over the last few seasons and are 35-6 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season.

CLEVELAND is 21-12 OVER revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season with a combined average of 225.7 ppg scored. CLEVELAND is 16-6 OVER in home games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.9 ppg going on the board. CLEVELAND  in 20 games  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season have seen a combined average score of 216.8 ppg scored.

BOSTON is 22-11 OVER off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211 ppg scored. BOSTON is 24-13 OVER L/37  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game with a combined average of 210.9 ppg scored.

NBA  team (BOSTON) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins against opponent off 2 consecutive road losses by 10 points or more are 49-22 OVER L/21 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the OVER

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0

 Golden State ratcheted up their D in game 1 and showed us how tough they really are. I cant bring myself to bet against the Dubs SU, no matter what the circumstances are if their completely healthy, which they are. Meanwhile, Houston must  also come out and play physical  D, if they have any chance of getting back into this series, which I also have my doubts about. What I am confident about is that this game will be more grinding then game one and much more physical. Houston owns the 6th ranked Defensive effecnicy in the league, and Golden State is very under rated from a defensive perspective but must be respected behind a boat load full of talent. Look for the Rockets to leave everything on the floor here and for Golden State to break the Rockets by  slowing  their opponents offensive flow down. This will result in a lower scoring game than the lines-makers are anticipating.

HOUSTON is 13-1 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 this season with the combined average score  of 205.9 ppg scored.

HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER    in home games versus very good shooting teams - making  48% or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last few seasons with a combined average of 214 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 15-3  L/18 UNDER   in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70%or better )  with a combined average of 207.3 ppg scored.

Golden State in their  27 games as a road underdog have seen a combined average of 205.5 ppg scored.GOLDEN STATE is 21-10 UNDER   after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.1 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 21-10 UNDER  off a road win this season with a combined average of 216.4 ppg scored.GOLDEN STATE is 12-4 UNDER    in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 214.6 ppg.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON/GOLDEN STATE ) - after having won 3 of their last 4 games, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 114-98 L/5  UNDER seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1

These explosive offenses Golden State and Houston have been off for a while after clinching their play off series in quick order . This will I'm betting effect their overall flow and effect the total combined score. I'm also expecting defense to win this series and not offense. It must be noted that the Rockets rank 7th in in points allowed and 6th in defensive rating, and their 13th in PACE. Meanwhile, The Warriors, 11th in defensive rating, and must not be underestimated in their ability to clamp down behind a boatload full of talent. With that said, I am recommending we take an under stance here in game 1 on what during the regular season may have seemed like a legitimate total, but here in play off action with so much on the line, Defense will reign supreme and the number looks high.

HOUSTON is 12-1 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 204.5 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 14-3 UNDER  in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70% or higher) with a combined average score of 206.2 ppg.GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 L/8 UNDER in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game with a combined average score of 217.8 ppg scored.

These teams have gone under in 5 of the L/6 meetings in Houston.. Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 road games..Under is 21-8-1 in Warriors last 30 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 10-1 in Rockets last 11 vs. NBA Pacific.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 46-16 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (HOUSTON) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins are 96-49 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - GSW Leads 3-1

The explosive Golden State Warriors with a chance to clinch this series vs the New Orleans Pelicans will come out here with all guns blazing, and the Pelicans who can also score in bunches will have no other choice but to open up with some offensive fire works of their own or be blown of the court. This game either goes back and forth as both feed off each others energy, or the Warriors romp and the Pelicans chase. Which ever of these likely scenarios emerges , the end result I'm betting will see the combined score  eclipse this Total.  It must also be noted that both teams are well rested , 2 days off, which bodes well for a high energy run and gun affair.

My own projections estimate that both sides will score north of +105 points. GOLDEN STATE is 35-11 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average score of 234.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 52-14 OVER L/22 seasons  for a 79% conversion rate for bettors  with a combined average of 232 ppg going on the board .

Play OVER

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 1

The Celtics and the Sixers will resume to long time rivalry in the first game of this 2nd round play off matchup this Monday night. I'm expecting the Celtics to make this a physically, grinding series as they look to slow down their opponents explosive offensive attack, and to be hell bent on controlling the boards, especially in their own end, where the Sixers have been rebound behemoths on offense this season. The Celtics base their successes and failures on their ability to play D, and here in game one with key contributor Jaylen Brown expected to miss or be less than 100% the Celtics are really going to depend on their superior defending capabilities vs the run and gun Sixers. It must also be noted that the Sixers have been off since Tuesday, and may show some rust here vs a side that I'm betting will be physical with them. Meanwhile, the Celtics are off a grueling 7 game series with the Bucks and will not have the legs or emotional drive to run here tonight. The above combinations should see this tilt remain on the low side of the Total.

Asked Sunday for keys to defeating the Celtics, Sixers coach Brett Brown said, "Just how you're gonna score. ... They're an excellent defensive team. We respect them with what they do defensively and I think they're clever offensively

BOSTON is 11-3 UNDER   versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season with a combined average of 198.7 ppg scored.Brown is 33-17 UNDER    in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game as the coach of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average score of 199 ppg scored. Stevens is 42-17 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of BOSTON with a combined average of 202.7 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 41-16 UNDER l/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Western Conference - Round 2 - Best of 7 - Game 1

Three of the four games these teams played against each other this season resulted in high scoring affairs. The two most recent games have seen 246, and 240 points scored. These teams are electric offensively and feed off of each others attacks in transition. I'm betting if Golden State wants to beat the streaking Pelicans their going to have to score in bunches, and I am equally confident   that the Pelicans can produce some offensive fireworks of their own in a opening game that I have pegged to go OVER the total. Note: New Orleans has scored 111, 119, 131 in their L/3 games.

NEW ORLEANS is 17-6 OVER  when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season with the average combined score of those games clicking in at 227.7 ppg.NEW ORLEANS is 22-12 OVER  after a combined score of 225 points or more this season with a combined average of 226.4 ppg scored ( NO beat PORT 131-123 L/time out)

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 54-14 OVER L/22  seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 233 ppg going on the score board.

Play on the OVER

San Antonio's defense  did not look good towards the tail end of the season and allowed 105 or more points in 7 off their L/10 games overall including 122 to New Orleans in their season finale. Over is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 road games.Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 Conference Quarterfinals games. Meanwhile, Golden State also struggled on defense for long stretches this season, ranking 18th overall allowing 107.5 ppg . Their saving grace was and always will be their offense , which was ranked first in the league this season (113.5 ppg) , behind the 5th fastest pace ( 99.6).
Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 home games.Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Golden State.
What I'm betting happens tonight is that the Warriors will come out in full attack mode, and force the Spurs into keeping pace with some offensive fireworks of their own  or be blown of the court. This will lead to a higher scoring tilt than the lines makers expect.

GOLDEN STATE L/20 games when playing against a team with a winning record have seen a combined average of 218.3 ppg go on the board.

SAN ANTONIO is 9-0 OVER  in road games in April games dating back to last season.GOLDEN STATE is 13-4 OVER L/17 in all playoff games with the total combined average of 225.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a playoff game, in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 24-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Miami is play off bound, and will want to sharpen up on their top tier brand of defensive basketball. I expect they will be very focused on being defensively responsible here this evening and for them not to be interested in a run and gun style of play, as they look to stay fresh for the post season. The Heat are 4th in in the league in points allowed and 27th in PACE. Meanwhile, NYK, despite of wanting to push for a more wide open attack tonight after suffering a ugly 97-73 set back last time out, will still have to contend with very good D, in a game I'm betting stays on the low side of the number.

The Knicks have gone under 14 straight times at home off a loss as a favorite in which they scored fewer than 80 points with the combined average score of those tilts clicking in at 171.9 ppg, with the highest combined score reaching just 188 points.

Under is 5-1-1 in Heat last 7 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 19-6-2 in Knicks last 27 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings.Under is 22-8 in the last 30 meetings in New York.

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more are 57-29 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors on the blind/

Play UNDER

Both Minnesota and Philadelphia are playing quality hoops at the moment, and with the play offs approaching will be concentrating on being a little more diligent in the defensive end of the court and in transition. I know both these teams can light up the scoreboard in a hurry , but with Jimmy Butler on the sidelines with an injury for the Wolves, and this being their 5th game in 8 days, I'm betting Minnesota won't be as fluid as the linesmakers expect vs staunch Philly D . It must also be noted   that the 76ers  are also in tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 5 night. These scheduling anomalies  I'm betting effect both sides offensive output here today, making this a viable under wager.

Minnesota is 24th in the league in PACE. Philadelphia is ranked 4th in PACE but are ranked 4th in defensive rating and are a highly under rated defensive side.

PHILADELPHIA is 22-13 UNDER  L/35 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season with a combined average score of 211.1 ppg scored.PHILADELPHIA is 14-4 UNDER L/18 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average of 204.6 ppg scored. HC Brown is 10-1 UNDER  versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season as the coach of the Sixer's with a combined average of 202 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in March games are 40-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA/PHILADELPHIA) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins are 140-50 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive win are 44-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for  a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Both these sides have played some fairly high scoring back and forth games of late, but the Clippers still key on defense to get where they need to go, and have seen 3 of their L/4 stay under the total . The average combined score of the  Clippers road games clicks in at around 216 ppg.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma City also has been running and gunning on a consistent basis, but because of this the lines makers are attaching some slightly bloated Totals to their tilts which makes for value when looking at the under as is evident by 4 of their L/5 home tilts failing to eclipse the number. The Thunders home games have seen a combined average score of 209.6 ppg scored behind the 20th ranked pace in the league and the 8th best defensive rating. My projections make this Total closer to 219 which gives us value on the under.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 41-27 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record dating back to last season with a combined average score of 211.3 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-11 UNDER L/33 against Pacific division opponents with a combined average score of 213.1 ppg scored.

The Thunder are 0-20 UNDER at home with more than one day of rest when they won as a favorite in each of their last two games with the highest score in those games coming in at 218 total points with the average combined score clicking in at 193.7 ppg.

The Thunder are 0-19 UNDER at home with more than one day of rest off a double-digit win as a favorite with the highest score in those games not eclipsing the 216 point plateau.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in March games are 38-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with the combined average score of 211.6 ppg scored.

Play on the UNDER

 These two rebuilding programs have gone through a lot of struggles this season, and both have looked a little winded here late in the campaign. A team that is particular tired are the young Suns, as was evident against Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday, falling 124-116 despite 39 points from emerging star Devin Booker. QUOTE: "I think we probably fatigued a little bit," Phoenix interim coach Jay Triano told reporters afterward. "I don't know if our guys are used to playing at that level for that long of a period of time, but that's what we'll get to." END QUOTE. Today here in Atlanta I'm expecting their tired legs to effect the Suns, and they won't be up to taking part in a run and gun affair, which is just fine for a Atlanta side that prefers a slower pace behind a 26th ranked offensive effecnicy rating. With that said, I'm betting we see the combined score of this affair to stay below the number.
 
Four of the L/5 meetings in this series have stayed under including the L/4 here in Georgia.

Under is 11-2 in Suns last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 4-1 in Suns last 5 road games. Under is 20-9 in Suns last 29 games following a straight up loss. Under is 17-8 in Suns last 25 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 7-1 in Hawks last 8 vs. Western Conference. Under is 21-7 in Hawks last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

ATLANTA is 21-7 UNDER  L/28 when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average of 207.6 ppg scored. ATLANTA is 9-0 UNDER  versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average of 196.8 ppg scored .  PHOENIX is 16-7 UNDER  L/23 after a combined score of 225 points or more this season with a combined average of 213.2 ppg scored.

NBA All teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (ATLANTA/PHOENIX) - in a game involving two struggling teams (25% to 40%), second half of the season are 38-10 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 216.5 ppg going on the scoreboard.

Play on the UNDER

Houston enters this game against Denver having won  11 straight games  and  have notched victories in 18 of their  last 20 games. But  will play without Eric Gordon (18.5ppg) which I'm betting effects their offensive flow here in the high altitude of the Rockies  this evening.  Meanwhile, Denver has won 10 of 13 and are  7-1 SU in February and could find the sledding tough behind their 17th ranked PACE vs a Houston team that can also play some solid D, as is evident by holding 4 of their L/9 opponents to under 99 points and ranked 9th in the league in defensive rating. Despite both teams current explosive forms , this line according to my own projections is slightly bloated to the upside and gives us a viable opportunity to cash taking an under stance.

Under is 11-2 in Rockets last 13 vs. Western Conference.Under is 10-4-1 in Rockets last 15 road games.

HOUSTON is 22-10 UNDER  L/32 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average score of 217 ppg going on the board. HOUSTON is 16-5 UNDER  L/21  in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games with a combined average score of 216.2 ppg scored.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DENVER /HOUSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 37-9 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 214 ppg going on the board.

Play UNDER

Philadelphia plays their best defensive basketball at home this season , and in recent action have  not allowed 5 of their L/8 opponents to score more than 98 points when playing as hosts. Overall leading up to the all star break the Sixers allowed an average of just 94.8 ppg in 5 games all wins and are currently ranked 4th in the league in Defensive effecnicy .  They did take part in a high scoring affair in their first game after the break, but will now be prepared to clamp down defensively vs a inconsistent Orlando offense ( Ranked 19th in Off Effecnicy). I'm betting on a total combined score to remain on the low side of the total.

PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 UNDER  L/12  in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) with a combined average of 203.7 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 20-11 UNDER   revenging a road loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 213 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (ORLANDO) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins are 41-11 and 6-0 this season UNDER L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

After almost a weeks rest both these very capable offensive sides will be fresh and ready to run and gun here as they prepare to start the stretch drive towards the play offs in a game that my projections suggest will eclipse this number.

Cleveland Ranks 5th in offensive output in the NBA and 27th in points allowed and  29th in defensive effecnicy . Leading up to the all star game the Cavs registered 140,123, 121, 120 in offensive production  4 straight games.  Washington ranks 9th in offensive effecnicy and 15th in points allowed. Washington has scored 101 or more ppg in 10 straight games and have allowed 11 of their L/13 opponents to put 100 or more points on the board.

WASHINGTON is 8-0 OVER L/8 off 2 or more consecutive road wins with a combined average score of 230.5 ppg scored.  Washington  is 20-6 OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season, with a combined average score of 228.1 ppg scored.WASHINGTON is 15-4 OVER L/9 versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of  46% or more - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average score of 223.6 ppg clicking in on the score board. CLEVELAND is 17-6 OVER L/23  in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last few seasons with a combined average of 223.3 ppg going on the board.CLEVELAND is 10-2 OVER  after scoring 120 points or more this season with a combined average score of 223.7 ppp ringing in on the board.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (CLEVELAND/WASHINGTON) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (36.5% or better) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 28-4 OVER L/5 seasons and a 6-0 so far this season for dual 88% and 100% conversion rates for bettors.

Play OVER

With this being the last game before both sides launch their mini vacations during the all star break, I expect both will feel energized and ready to run and gun tonight, as they also know an extended rest is on the way.

Denver enters this game having won 5 of their L/6 behind an offense that is clicking on all cylinders, averaging more than 117.8 ppg during that stretch. The Bucks also rank 6th (110.6)  in the league in offensive efficiency and  22nd  ( 109.7) in defensive efficiency   Meanwhile, Milwaukee despite of being inconsistent, are ranked 12th in the league in offensive effecnicy  rating (108.9 ppg) and 16th in defensive efficiency ( 108.7 ) and in this type of matchup vs an explosive offense will have to speed up their pace, which in turn will have them go above their current ratings, which will translate in to a higher scoring game than the lines-makers expect.

DENVER is 38-21 OVER  L/59 when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 223.7 ppg scored.DENVER is 22-8 OVER  L/30  in road games after a combined score of 225 points with a combined average of score of 222 ppg scored. DENVER is 31-18 OVER  L/49 in non-conference games with a combined average of 222.4 ppg scored.Malone is 40-19 OVER  when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of DENVER with a combined average of 218.4 ppg scored.

Over is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 vs. NBA Central.Over is 14-4 in Bucks last 18 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 33-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 223.9 ppg scored.

Play OVER

Two banged up teams the San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets go head to head tonight in the Mile High City. The Spurs after playing last night in Utah wont; have the legs to run and gun tonight, and with key offensive weapons Leonard and Aldridge sidelined don't have as much scoring punch as usual.   Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets , continue to play without Paul Milsap, and have a bevy of walking wounded that are playing at less than 100%, and welcome the all star break that is on the horizon. This above combination of circumstances I'm betting will result in a much lower combined score than the lines-makers expect.

SAN ANTONIO is 15-7 UNDER   versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 200.6 ppg scored.SAN ANTONIO is 17-6 UNDER  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 198.2 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 21-7 UNDER   when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season of 194.7 ppg scored and 13-2 UNDER  in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 this season with a combined average of 191.7 ppg going on the board.

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 50-17 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

 The last time these teams played  they took part in  wild 148-124 shootout, that saw the Thunder shoot 58%+ FG, and the Cavs 51%.. However, it  seems both coaches were not happy with their own defenses, especially the Cavs Lue, and now I expect he makes sure his team is ready to be more physical, and more defensively responsible in transition, which I'm betting makes this a slower game than many expect.

CLEVELAND in their L/21  in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more have seen a combined average score of 217.2 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-8 L/29 UNDER  against Central division opponents with a combined average of 204.2 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA CITY is 18-8 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 220.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 34-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 217.6 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (CLEVELAND) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a road win are 42-14 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 755 conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 215.7 ppg.

Play UNDER

We all now how explosive Houston's offense is, but many do not notice that they are defensively efficient , as they rank 9th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  ie Defensive Rating (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 possessions. Recently the Rockets have been tough on opposing offenses holding 3 of their L/6 opponents to 97 points or less. Meanwhile, Minnesota despite of taking part in a lot of higher scoring affairs this season, remarkably owns the 23rd ranked pace, and tonight, I expect they will be even more deliberate in their approach, vs a powerful offense. With that said, and according to both teams expected style of play, and road vs home scenarios I'm betting on a total score that does not eclipse this total.

 Rockets are 5-0-1 UNDER  last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 9-1 in Rockets last 10 vs. Western Conference.Under is 10-3-1 in Rockets last 14 road games.Under is 34-15-2 in Rockets last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 5-2 in Timberwolves last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 this season and 7-0 on the road with a combined average score of the away games clicking in at 206.2 ppg. HC' DAntoni is 25-4 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average score  of 213.9 ppg on the board.  HOUSTON is 16-4 UNDER   in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games with a combined average of 215.3 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 32-11 UNDER  L/43 versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA) - excellent FT shooting team (79% or over ) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games 27-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

San Antonio is banged up with some key injuries but still have enough talent to put some points on the board here and keep track with the red hot Utah Jazz a team that is averaging 117.6 ppg  in offense over the L/7 games during their 9 game win streak. Considering the Jazz played last night I doubt they will be prepared to play a lot of defense here and I'm anticipating a much more wide open game because of this. With that said, I'm recommending we take an over stance in this spot.

UTAH is 21-7 OVER  L/28 against Southwest division opponents with a combined average of 204.5 ppg on the scoreboard. SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 OVER L/19 with a combined average of 200.1 ppg scored  in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points.

NBA teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (UTAH) - hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, playing on back-to-back days are 37-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 201 ppg going on the board.

Play OVER

The Dallas Mavericks visit a tired looking  Golden State Warriors team on Thursday night that has lost 3 of their L/4 overall. The last time the Mavs came to town  the Warriors took a  112-97 win and I'm expecting a similar output tonight. Note: Dallas has gone under in 7 of their L/8 while, the Dubs have gone under in 3 straight tilts.

GOLDEN STATE is 9-1 UNDER  L/10 when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average of 217.4 ppg scored.DALLAS is 15-7 UNDER   versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 207.2 ppg going on the board. DALLAS is 21-11 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 204 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 19-7 UNDER  L/26 after 3 or more consecutive unders dating back to last season with the combined average score of 215.3 ppg going on the board.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - excellent FT shooting team (79% or better) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games are 27-5 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 210.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - excellent free throw shooting team - making 80% or more  of their free throws, in February games are 43-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

 Portland as the season has progressed has reverted back to their old run and gun style of play and has improved its offensive production now ranking 15th in the NBA in offensive rating (105.2). The Blazers' defense has  also gotten progressively worse and after being in the top 10 for a long time  and are now  ranked 11th at 104.9. ppg. Meanwhile, Charlotte ranks 18th in points allowed, and 14th in offense, with a combined average of 212.8 ppg scored. (106.4 ppg in both categories). From  matchup perspective and a projections system I have used for 14 years,  I'm expecting both sides to play a faster paced game then usual, and for the this combined score to eclipse the number.

My projection has both sides scoring more than 105 points each- Note: PORTLAND is 20-0 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 230 ppg going on the board.CHARLOTTE is 49-2 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game with a combined average of 230.3 ppg scored.

PORTLAND is 23-11 OVER L/34 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last few seasons with a combined average score of 226.4 ppg clicking in on the board. PORTLAND is 12-2 OVER L/14  after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots with a combined average score of 223.3 ppg being registered.

Over is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 4-1 in Hornets last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

PORTLAND is 23-11 OVER (+10.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons

HC Stotts is 8-0 OVER L/8 vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game - 2nd half of the season  with a combined average score of 219.8 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHARLOTTE) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 43-14 OVER L/21 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 219.8 ppg scored.

Play OVER

The Knicks enter this game  having lost four games in a row and seven of their last nine and  are obviously in bad form, and to make matters worse they have to play without a key offensive cog because of an injury to Porzingis  and also to guard Ron Baker (right shoulder surgery) and center Enes Kanter (oral surgery). If Tim Hardaway Jr. plays for NYK he has been fairly unproductive and rusty and won't help their offensive cause much. This will of course effect the Knicks offensive flow tonight vs one of the leagues top teams the Toronto Raptors , which in turn will effect the total combined score of this tilt in downward fashion. The Knicks know they have to find a way to slow this game down and make it physical, and that's what I'm betting they will do which will aid us in cashing an under bet here. The Four most recent meetings in this series have all not eclipsed this Total.

Under is 6-0 in Knicks last 6 overall.Under is 8-2 in Knicks last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic.Under is 8-2 in Knicks last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic.

TORONTO is 16-7 UNDER   versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season with a combined average of 207.4 ppg scored. TORONTO is 8-1 UNDER   after a division game this season with a combined average of 198.7 ppg going on the board.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO) - revenging a loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 34-8 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors .

Play UNDER

The Rockets are off a win in Brooklyn last night by a  123-113 count  and now prepare to visit the Miami Heat on Wednesday night at AmericanAirlines Arena . The Rockets now  on tired legs  just won't have as much energy to run and gun as they usually do . Add to that they will play a very physical defensive side, lead by Hassan Whiteside,  that are  well equipped to slow the Rockets  down. With that said, I won't be surprised if the visitors  produce below their season offensive average in this spot.  On the flipside,  the Heat ranked 28th in pace and 5th in defensive efficiency,   and off a couple of dubious lackluster defensive  performances, will  be primed to bounce back and play solid D, in a building where they have held 3 of their L/4 opponents to 91 point or less. Houston must also not be underestimated in their ability to play solid D, as they have held 5 of their L/10 opponents to 99 or less points and rank 9th in the league in defensive rating. The above combinations bode well for this score staying on the low side of the Total.  

Note: Miami in 7 of their L/15 overall have seen them and their opponents fail to eclipse the 99 point plateau in a game. MIAMI is 8-0 UNDER  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season with a combined average of 193.2 ppg scored. The last two meetings between these teams here in Miami have remained on the low side of the number.

Under is 10-2 in Rockets last 12 overall.Under is 6-1 in Rockets last 7 road games.Under is 35-15-2 in Rockets last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 5-1 in Heat last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins are 40-11 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Utah is suddenly playing top tier hoops again as is evident by 5 straight wins. Their current top form must be attributed to their ability to play a very strong brand of defensive basketball that has resulted in allowing 4 of their L/5 opponents to score less than 99 points. This type of D, has been a mainstay of Jazz basketball for a while, and their now in a groove and closely following their regiment.  I know that the Pelicans have continued to play fairly high scoring games, despite of losing DeMarcus Cousns to an injury, but  their flow I'm betting will be inhibited tonight by a side that knows exactly how to slow opponents down, behind a 25th ranked pace and the 4th best D in the league.

Utah HC Snyder is 28-15 UNDER L/43   versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game - 2nd half of the season with a combined average of 194.6 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (UTAH) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games are 45-17 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Washington enters this game starting to shore up their defensive play and have held 3 of their L/6 opponents under the 98 point mark and overall  rank in the upper half of the NBA defensive numbers . Meanwhile, Indiana ha held 8 of their L/16 opponents to  99 points or less behind the 17th ranked pace. With that said, and considering my own power ranking matchup projections the lines-makers are slightly over weighted on the Total and thus I'm betting we have value with an under wager in this spot.

Indiana has gone under 17 of their L/28 home games this season. Washington has gone under in 17 of their 26 road games during this campaign. The combined average score of Wizards road games clicks in at a combined average of 210 ppg, while Indiana's home games have seen a combined average of 211.3 ppg. The two most recent games these teams have played here in Indiana have not eclipsed this total, and I'm once again betting on this Number not being breached.

WASHINGTON is 16-7 UNDER  L/23 after a game where they covered the spread this season with a combined average of 209.2 ppg scored. r

INDIANA is 25-9 UNDER  L/34  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record with a combined average 205.3 ppg scored. INDIANA is 11-3 UNDER in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 202.2 ppg scored.INDIANA is 19-8 UNDER L/27 at home when the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average of 208 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (WASHINGTON) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games are 45-17 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (WASHINGTON) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games are 55-20 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

New Orleans after losing DeMarcus Cousins for the seasons with a Achilles injury are now  Short-handed going in to this tilt against the Wolves . The Pelicans  did manage to shore up their bench by acquiring Forward Nikola Mirotic from the Bulls and  is expected to make his debut for New Orleans tonight. But his presence I'm betting slows down the offensive flow of the Pelicans that they  had with Anthony and Cousins patrolling the hardwood. From my own projections which considers the new personnel  I'm estimating that the Pelicans will score in the 100 point range , and attempt between 81 and 87 shots, which has resulted in them combining with their opponents to average 206.8 ppg in the recent past. Meanwhile, Minnesota despite of being able to put points on the board in bunches, have shown that they  have the flashes of having the  ability to play solid defense as well,  behind the 24th ranked pace in the league, which has resulted in them going under in 4 straight games, allowing two of their L/4 opponents to 97 and 87 points respectively. The combination of Minnesota's concerted focus on playing better  D, and the Pelicans getting acclimated to playing without key cogs and new pieces will culminate in tilt that stays under the total.

NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 UNDER  L/10  in road games versus  teams -  allowing an overall shooting pct defense of  46% or worse - 2nd half of the season dating back to their last campaign, with the combined average score of 207.9 ppg scored.NEW ORLEANS is 10-1 UNDER  in road games off an upset win as a road underdog  with a combined average of 199.6 ppg scored. ( The Pelicans upset Thunder 114-110 L/time out) MINNESOTA is 13-3 UNDER  after 2 or more consecutive unders this season.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA) - excellent FT shooting team (79% or more ) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games are 26-4 OVER L/21 seasons, for a 87% conversion rate for bettors ( with a combined average of 210.6 ppg going on the board).

 Play UNDER

When we think of  the Houston Rockets  we get the image of a run and gun offensive team that plays with one way reckless abandon. While their are times when they do look like this kind of side, overall this is not a true picture of what they have been trying to achieve or the way they play . Overall the Rockets are ranked 10th in the league in defensive efficiency, and on the road of late have held 5 of their L/9 opponents to under 99 points or less. Overall thanks to a decent defensive posture they have also seen 8 of their L/10 games remain on the low side of the number. On the road this season the Rockets have seen a combined average of 209.6 ppg scored. Now we enter this game against a Cleveland team, playing for the most part aggressive offensive ball  while looking like pylons on defense. The Cavs did however, come out last time out, and show us some metal in a 91-89 win vs Miami, and now on a couple of days rest, should be well prepared to use that winning formula for this  top tier  non conference showdown in a game I have pegged at staying under the slightly bloated  public total.

HOUSTON is 7-0 UNDER  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 206.2 ppg scored.

HOUSTON is 23-11 UNDER L/34  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season  with a combined average of 219.8 ppg scored. CLEVELAND  in their L/42  versus   teams - allowing 106+ points/game have seen an average of 224.7 ppg scored.

Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CLEVELAND) - excellent FT shooting team (79% or more ) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games are 26-4 L/21 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors  with a combined average of 201.6 ppg scored.

Play UNDER

The Washington Wizards  tried to run and gun with the red hot  Oklahoma City Thunder on the road last week and lost by a 121-111 count. Now in the rematch, I'm betting the Wizards slow things down a little bit, as they play without star guard John Wall in the lineup. This combination of expected strategy and key cog missing  will see their flow curtailed, which will also effect their   offensive output here , which in turn will effect the total combined score falling on the low side of the number.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-0 UNDER  L/8 in road games on Tuesday nights. ( This could just be an anomaly but still worth noting) OKLAHOMA CITY is also  19-5 UNDER   after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better with a combined average of 204 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-2 UNDER  L/14  after 5 or more consecutive overs with a combined average of 192.1 ppg scored.

Under is 25-12 in Thunder last 37 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 11-5-1 in Wizards last 17 vs. Western Conference.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 219.5/ 220 (WASHINGTON) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 34-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

The Rockets have no problem scoring points in bunches behind an explosive offense that averages 116.8 ppg at home this season, but its their defensive performances that are most troubling, as is evident by allowing 108.8 ppg as hosts. Needless to say, the Rockets are a one way offensive juggernaut and nothing will change today vs the visiting Phoenix Suns. The Suns are allowing more than 112 ppg this season, while the offense, has averaged 106.8 ppg on the road  ranking last in the NBA overall and also own the 4th fastest pace . This according to my own projections results in a high scoring affair that eclipses this fairly high but beatable Total.

My own estimates suggest that the Rockets will meet their season average offensive output of around 117 points today, which is a good omen for a over wager cashing as the  Rockets 46-13 OVER   when they score 117 or more points in a game with the combined average score clicking in at 236 ppg scored.

PHOENIX is 9-1 OVER  L/10 as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points wit a combined average score of 236.4 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 11-1 OVER as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points with a combined average of 145.3 ppg going on the board.

PHOENIX is 14-3 OVER  L/17 versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game of 130.6 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (HOUSTON) - in a game involving two good FT shooting teams (76-79%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 34-8  OVER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors  with a combined average of 234.4 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

The Celtics in a grueling physical game took out the Golden State Warriors  92-88 in a  home win in November. With that template having proven successful last time out, I'm betting on the Celtics preparing to play a similar type conservative affair. Boston's guards limited Golden State's  super star backcourt duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to a total of 22 points on 8-for-32 shooting in that game. I'm betting on a rinse and repeat situation here tonight in a much lower scoring game than the pundits might expect.

BOSTON is 10-1 UNDER  L/11 when the total is greater than or equal to 220 and is 9-1 UNDER   when the total is 220 to 229.5.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 33-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - excellent FT shooting team (79% or more ) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games are 25-4  UNDER L/21 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

This game between the visiting NY Knicks and their hosts the Phoenix Suns has the makings of a run and gun all out offensive affair. 

The Suns behind the 4th ranked pace in the NBA  are lead by explosive offensive  guard Devin Booker who is averaging 24.8 points a game but  also own  a lackluster D allowing  112.2 ppg the worst mark in the league. With this their first game home after an extended road trip, I'm betting they will be ready to take off here in their own digs. Note: Over is 19-7-1 in Suns last 27 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.Meanwhile, the Knicks  are allowing 110.3 ppg on the road this season, and are consistently taking part in back and forth wide open tilts as is evident by going over the Total in 9 straight and 11 of their L/12 games overall with the average combined score clicking in at 223.5 ppg . The Knicks are also on tired legs as they played last night, and won't have the energy to play physically in what should be a loosely played game. Over is 18-5 in Knicks last 23 games playing on  no  rest.

NEW YORK is 10-1 OVER  L/11 after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season with a combined average score of 224 ppg scored. NEW YORK is 7-0 OVER   versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 228.8 ppg scored.

PHOENIX is 23-11 OVER  L/34  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or less assists/game with a combined average of 225.5 ppg scored.

Play OVER

The Pelicans enter this game having seen a combined average of 217.4 ppg scored on the road this season. Meanwhile, Charlotte has seen a combined average  score of 211.5 ppg go on the board in their home games this season. These averages and a head to head matchup systems analysis has me projecting a total closer to 218.5 to 220, which gives us value on making a UNDER wager in this spot. The discrepancy between my numbers in the offered total is partially based on series history which has seen both sides take part in a high scoring affairs. But the lines-makers have stretched this number to its outer limits and there is value on the under considering my projections.

NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 UNDER L/29  in road games when playing against a team with a losing record with the combined average of 207.9 ppg scored.CHARLOTTE is 23-12 UNDER  L/35 versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game with t a combined average of 210 ppg scored.

HC Clifford of Charlotte is Clifford is 21-9 UNDER in home games after a win by 6 points or less ( beat Sacramento 112-107 last time out) the combined average score of 195.1 ppg.

Under is 5-1 in Pelicans last 6 vs. NBA Southeast.Under is 6-2 in Pelicans last 8 road games.Under is 10-4 in Hornets last 14 vs. Western Conference.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CHARLOTTE) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins are 37-84 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. ( The combined average score of those games was 218.7 ppg)

Play UNDER

Indiana is on tired legs, as they are on the tail end of a 5 game western conference road trip. Their ability to play physical defense,  I'm betting will be hampered by fatigue. Meanwhile, the Spurs anxious to get back on a winning run and inflict payback for a previous loss to the Pacers earlier this season, will see the Spurs playing aggressively, and pushing the tempo of the game. This will force the Pacers to chase, and reciprocate with some offense of their own in game that I have pegged to over the set total. Note: INDIANA is 9-1 OVER L/10 in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) with a combined average of 224.8 ppg scored.

Pacers offense averages 106.5 ppg this season and on the road have also averaged  105.9 ppg on average , while the defense has allowed 105.7 ppg overall and 106.5 ppg. San Antonio has scored 107 ppg at home this season, and overall have seen a combined average of 204.6 ppg.

SAN ANTONIO is 18-7 OVER  L/25 revenging a same season loss vs opponent with a combined average of 208.7 ppg scored. NDIANA is 22-11 OVER  L/33 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a combined average of 216.7 ppg going on the board.

NBA Home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 PPG or more ), after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less are 23-4 OVER L/21 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play OVER

The Suns offense remains in issue as they have failed to eclipse the 99 point plateau in 3 of their L/5 and now the  defense is being scrutinized after allowing Portland to shoot over 50% from the field in game they  played Tuesday night. Some of the players blamed it on fatigue, but you can bet, HC Triano a master tactician won't take this sitting down, and will try diligently  to make sure his young team works harder on their transitional play and overall defense tonight vs a sometimes explosive Nuggets team. Something that might aid the Suns, in their attempt to slow down the Nuggets offense is the rash of nagging injuries the Nuggets are currently experiencing and the heavy schedule that will now have them playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Thanks to a array of issues  it must be noted that Denver has failed to score 99 or more points in 5 of their L/8 overall.The Nuggets  have gone under in 5 straight games and in 7 of their L/8 overall, and despite of some historical high scoring past meetings, I'm betting history is unlikely to repeat itself here under the current circumstances.

DENVER is 17-6 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record this season with a combined average of 205.4 ppg scored. DENVER is 15-7 UNDER when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season with a combined average of 208.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PHOENIX) - terrible team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game, after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half  are 55-20 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for totals bettors with the average combined score of these games clicking in a 209 ppg.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 71-38 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

Detroit enters this game ranked 25th in offense and 21st in pace, and own the 4th ranked D,  and I'm expecting those numbers to remain on average here tonight against the Wizards. Meanwhile, Washington ranks 13th in pace and 11 in defensive rating, and 11th in offensive rating. My numbers make the Total closer to 203-204 thus giving us value with the under here.

DETROIT is 8-0 UNDER  after 2 or more consecutive losses this season with a combined average of 193.5 ppg going on the board.DETROIT is 15-4 UNDER  L/19 after 1 or more consecutive losses this season with a combined average of 199.3 ppg scored.DETROIT is 11-2 UNDER  L/13 as a home underdog of 6 points or less dating back to last season with a combined average of with a combined average of 194.5 ppg clicking in.DETROIT is 15-6 UNDER when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (WASHINGTON) - after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 70-30 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play UNDER

When these teams played back in late November of this season, the Warriors took a 143-94 win vs their hosts tonight the Chicago Bulls. I'm sure that bad defensive performance still is a sore point for Hoiberg and company, and this time around I'm betting the Bulls despite of some decent offensive production of late won't allow themselves to get caught up in shoot out that they probably can't win. This I'm betting cuts into the lines-makers Totals projections. Add to that the Warriors are off a big win vs Cleveland last time out, and now in a an emotional letdown situation, their energy levels should be diminished , and their offensive output curtailed, which could lead to a much lower scoring game than expected.

HC Kerr is 21-9 UNDER L/30 in road games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season with the combined average score registering in at 214.6 ppg. Bulls HC Hoiberg is 31-16 UNDER L/47 in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent with a combined average score of 201.9 ppg scored.

Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 vs. NBA Central.Under is 7-1 in Warriors last 8 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Chicago.

GOLDEN STATE is 13-4 UNDER L/17 versus struggling defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average score of 214.7 ppg scored.CHICAGO is 30-18 UNDER versus teams - allowing 106+ points/game with the average combined score clicking in at 207.9 ppg.

GOLDEN STATE is 23-9 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 229.5 to 230 with a combined average of 225.1 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 27-10 UNDER L/37 in home games in non-conference games with a combined average of 198.9 ppg scored.


NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 33-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

Play UNDER

The Rockets enter this contest against the LA Clippers playing decently without super star James Harden ( injury). However, the Rockets still don't look like they have the same flow they had with him in the lineup. Yes, their offense remains productive, but I can see chinks in their armour, and I'm betting the Clippers find a way to slow them down a little bit on their own home floor. I know these teams took part in a high scoring 128-118 affair back in late December , that the Rockets won, but with the Clippers learning their lesson, I expect a different type of approach here. With that said,   the  Clippers  know its in their best interest to slow this game down if they want positive results. With LAC HC Rivers starting to look like a much better tactician than he was earlier in coaching career  ,   I'm also  betting Rivers will try to slug it out with Houston in a slower more grinding game, instead going head to head with them,   in a run and gun affair again. This will result in a lower scoring tilt than the linesmakers might expect.

LA CLIPPERS are 8-0 UNDER L/8 in home games after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half dating back to last season with a combined average of 195.4 ppg going on the board. LA CLIPPERS are 14-4 UNDER L/18 in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game with a combined average of 208.5 ppg scored.HOUSTON in their L/28 games in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game have seen a combined  average of 222.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS/HOUSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 31-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play UNDER

The Lakers  have had success of late and are on a 4 game win streak thanks to playing  much better defensive hoops and held the last three opponents to an average of 89.3 points. Tonight against a Memphis side that has only average 97.8 ppg in offensive production at home, I'm betting on them keeping their foes under wraps again. It must also be noted that the Lakers have failed to eclipse the 99 point plateau in 5 of their L/7 in slower paced affairs behind the 29th ranked offensive rating in the league. Meanwhile, Memphis is off scoring 78 points last time out in a hard fought defensive game in Denver (87-78), and I'm betting that Fizdale and company stick to this type of physcial hoops again, as they revert back to a slower paced game plan as they search for consistency.

Memphis is ranked 30th in Pace in the NBA while their  offense ranks 29th.

Under is 5-0 in Lakers last 5 games following a ATS win.

MEMPHIS is 15-7 UNDER L/22 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season. MEMPHIS is 10-1 UNDER  L/11 versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season .MEMPHIS is 16-5 UNDER in home games this season with a combined average of 198.5 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MEMPHIS) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a struggling  defensive team (102 PPG or more), after a combined score of 175 points or less are 39-10 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play on the UNDER

The Spurs key to success has always been a dominant D, but with a boatload full of injuries to key defensive players, ie ( K Leonard) I'm betting they will be at a disadvantage tonight, against a young LA Lakers team that despite of trying to play better D,  is still for the most part  a one way run and gun team. Earlier this season with Parker and Leonard out, the Spurs still played very competitive ball, and I'm betting nothing changes tonight, except maybe their ability to defend and be physical in the process, as they are also on tired legs, as they play their third road game in four nights. The Lakers offense has been a little stagnant of late, but with an opportunity to upset a big time opponent I'm betting we see these kids and their veterans in top form and ready to run. The above mentioned group of situations should contribute to a looser game than many might expect and a much higher scoring game than the lines-makers expect.

LAL ranks 29th in the league in D and own the No.1 pace.

Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Over is 19-9 in Spurs last 28 vs. NBA Pacific.Over is 6-1 in Lakers last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Over is 11-4 in Lakers last 15 overall.Over is 22-8-1 in Lakers last 31 vs. NBA Southwest.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SAN ANTONIO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a struggling  defensive team (102 PPG or more), after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 33-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for Totals bettors with a combined average of 225.6 ppg going on the board.

Play OVER

The Toronto Raptors are on tired legs after an  overtime victory over the Nets last  night. Not only will they be exhausted but  also maybe short handed after  All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry injured himself last night. If Lowry does not play or is less than 100% the Raptors flow will be interrupted and so will their offensive cohesiveness. Also after last nights affair this Raptors side will be in no condition to run and gun, which will also effect their output ratio. Another factor here is that  we may see the explosive TO crew curtail their aggressiveness  as coach Casey, was not impressed with their defensive play last night, and now wants a concerted effort in transition,  in their own end of the court. This Toronto team despite of being an offensive juggernaut when healthy , play solid D, and rank 6th in Defensive efficiency in the league and are more than capable of stepping up their stopping efforts. Meanwhile the Heat  despite of taking part in some fairly high scoring tilts of late, do their best work when their playing tough defensive ball behind Hassan Whiteside, and tonight I'm betting their prepared to be physical in their quest to some how slow down this explosive side  ( Heat Rank 27th in pace in the league and 7th in points allowed). These scenarios play well towards this total score falling below the posted Number. Note: The four most recent meetings in this series have all failed to eclipse the posted total with a combined average of 187.8 ppg scored.

MIAMI is 26-12 UNDER  L/38 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a combined average of 199.1 ppg scored during that span.MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER L/10  in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days with a combined average of 200 ppg going on the board.

Under is 60-29-1 in Heat last 90 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 4-0 in Heat last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 8-2 in Heat last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic.Under is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 home games.

NBA  team (MIAMI) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive wins are 36-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MIAMI) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive wins are 30-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Miami Heat  enter this home game playing some good hoops of late, winning three straight , and  now go against a inconsistent  slumping Utah Jazz team that has lost 12 of their L/15 games  this  Sunday afternoon  at American Airlines Arena.

Both these teams overall numbers on the season suggest they are comfortable playing slower paced hoops. But recent stats and style of play do not support the overall data. This giving us value playing the OVER.

The Jazz's biggest problem this season is their inability to play solid defense, something they have become respected for, until recently. That is evident by allowing more than 100 points in 12 of their L/15 tilts with the average  opposition offensive production coming in at 109.4 ppg in those above mentioned games . With the Heat hitting their offensive stride of late scoring , 117, 111, 107 points in their L/3 , in fast paced back and forth affairs, . Considering the Heats current blue print has been successful   I'm betting on another similar output this Sunday by the Heat as they force the Jazz into a faster paced game than they may want to participate in. It must also be noted that the Heat have allowed 6 of their L/7 opponents to eclipse the 100  point plateau allowing a average of 106.5 ppg in the 6 games. With that said,  my own projections, estimate both sides to eclipse the 100 point plateau, in this spot which makes taking an over wager a  very viable investment option.

Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Miami.

MIAMI is 11-1 OVER  L/12  in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49% with a combined average 216.6 ppg going on the scoreboard. UTAH is 14-1 OVER    in road games versus lower tier foul drawing teams - attempting  21 or less free throws/game with the combined average score of 205.6 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MIAMI) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games are 37-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MIAMI) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 54-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

The Rockets did well without the injured super star James Harden last night in a 116-98 win vs a downtrodden group in the Orlando Magic. Tonight, however, on tired legs  I'm betting their offense will be muted , vs a much better  and under rated defensive side , that is ranked 5th in defensive efficiency  in the league . With that said, I'm expecting the Rockets to take a much more conservative approach to this confrontation, vs the explosive Warriors than they usually would because of being short handed which will result in a slower paced game then expected. The Rockets are also no pushovers on defense as their efficiency ranking is 10th overall in the league and will be primed to play physical ball. Note:Defensive Rating (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA);  for players and teams... it is based on points allowed per 100 possessions.

Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Under is 6-1 in Rockets last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Houston.

The last meeting between these teams was high scoring ,a 122-121 shootout win for the Rockets as road dogs but 5 of the L/6 overall have stayed under the total . I'm expecting for these sides to revert back to those types of confrontations tonight.

NBA team (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games are 28-7 UNDER  L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play UNDER

My own projections make this Total closer to 216 to 217, thus giving us value on a UNDER wager in this pot play between the Suns and 76ers.

HC Triano of the Suns has turned his team around and are playing better ball of late, thanks to increased concentration on playing solid defensive ball. Tonight against a sometimes explosive 76ers group you bet this coach has a game plan that is centered on playing a slower brand of basketball. This I'm betting will directly effect the Total combined score of this tilt to the low side of the number. Note: Suns have failed to breach the 100 point plateau in 4 of their L/6 and 5 of their L/7 have remained on the low side the Total.

Under is 7-0 in Suns last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 10-4 in Suns last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

PHOENIX is 21-6 UNDER L/27 after 2 straight games outrebounding opponent by 10 or more with a combined average score of 199.3 ppg going on the board. Suns HC Triano is 12-1 UNDER    in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game in all games in his career with a combined average of 209.5 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, tired team - playing their 4th road game in 7 days are 23-5 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a road win are 35-9 UNDER L/20 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHOENIX) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 40-14 UNDER L/21  seasons for a 74% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

Play on the UNDER

The Spurs  are the  healthiest they have been for a  long time  and had their entire available roster ready to play for the first time all season on Tuesday when they beat Brooklyn 109-97. Note: SAN ANTONIO is 13-2 OVER L/15 in home games after a cover as a double digit favorite with a combined average of 206.2 ppg going on the board. This Spurs group despite of playing a defense first brand of hoops,  is now explosive and ready to run, and will be motivated to get into an offensive rhythm as a team.  This I'm betting will in turn lead to some faster paced outings for a while for the Spurs, including tonight against a  Knicks group  that when pushed can light the board up behind the likes of Porzingis .

These teams have gone over 6 straight times in San Antonio.Over is 9-4-1 in Spurs last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Over is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 games playing on 0 days rest.Over is 8-3 in Knicks last 11 vs. Western Conference.Over is 6-2 in Knicks last 8 road games.

SAN ANTONIO in their L/62 in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season have seen a combined average of 205.5 ppg scored. NEW YORK in their L/46  games versus good shooting teams - making  46% or more  of their shots have seen a combined average score of 206.5 ppg scored.

 NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (NEW YORK) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 38-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

Play OVER

Denver and Minnesota are two teams exhibiting upper tier offensive production and lower tier defensive numbers. The Wolves rank 5th in offensive efficiency (112.4) and 25th  in defensive efficiency (110.2).  Meanwhile, the Nuggets ranked 7th in offensive efficiency (110.1) and  a 17th ranked defensive  efficiency rating of (108.3 ) . This combination of numbers adjusted to each team system and head to head matchup comparisons, project and estimated combined score of somewhere in the vicinity of 217 to 219 , thus giving us value with an over bet according to my numbers. Note: The only game between these teams this season saw a combined 216 points go on the board. My own projections estimate both sides will score at least 106+ points tonight. DENVER is 13-0 OVER  L/13 where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combine average of 235.4 ppg clicking in on the board.MINNESOTA is 12-2 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 227 ppg scored.

Over is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 overall.Over is 5-1-1 in Timberwolves last 7 vs. NBA Northwest.Over is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.

MINNESOTA is 13-5 OVER when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season with a combined average of 222 ppg scored.

DENVER is 31-11 OVER  versus lower tier  defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game with the combined average of 228.4 ppg scored and is 30-13 OVER  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game with a combined average of 228 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 38-11 OVER L/5 seasons for 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Chicago enters this game with offensive flow having eclipsed the 100 point plateau in 7 straight games but  have allowed more than 100 points in 15 of their L/18 overall. Now on tired legs after last nights rare strong defensive effort vs Orlando I'm betting they revert back to the norm and allow the explosive Cleveland Cavaliers to light them up for a boat load full of points tonight. Meanwhile, Cleveland has scored an average of over 111 ppg this season, ranking 4th in offense in the league, which includes a porous D, that has allowed 107.4 ppg ranked 23rd worst in the league. Tonight I'm betting on a fairly high scoring affair that eclipses this beat Total.

CLEVELAND in 16 games when playing against a team with a losing record this season have seen a combined average of 221.1 ppg go on the board. CLEVELAND is 15-4 OVER    in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread with a combined average of 227.1 ppg go on the scoreboard.

Over is 8-3 in Bulls last 11 games playing on 0 days rest.Over is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Over is 20-7 in Cavaliers last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHICAGO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a struggling defensive team (102 PPG or more ), after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 31-7 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

Play OVER

The Chicago Bulls enter this game against Orlando , with the 28th ranked offense, and the 13th ranked pace. The Bulls have scored more consistently of late,  but I'm betting they will revert to the mean eventually and more importantly tonight , because of key system discrepancies  which I have pinpointed from a matchup system I have formulated  .  Meanwhile, the Orlando Magic, own the 13th ranked offense and 7 th ranked pace. The Magic have also failed to eclipse the 95 point plateau on offense in 4 of their L/7, and are struggling to stay offensively consistent and I'm betting their production problems will persist  in this spot.

Under is 6-0 in Magic last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 4-0 in Magic last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-0 in Bulls last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 20-8 in Bulls last 28 home games.Under is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.

CHICAGO is 21-8 UNDER L/29 versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game with a combined average score of 201.2 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 30-18 UNDER  L/48 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game with a combined average score of 207.6 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 25-12 UNDER   as a favorite dating back to last season with a combined average 202.6 points per game on going on the scoreboard.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (ORLANDO) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins are 38-11 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

Play UNDER

The Jazz  played a physical game last night in the middle of a 6 game road trip and will now be exhausted  after beating the  Boston Celtics 107-95 on Friday. After last nights game they went out to the airport and  had to fly two hours to play a well  rested Cavaliers team  that has been home for almost a week. Needless to say their game plan tonight will be to survive via a slow paced effort which will effect the overall offensive output for both these teams.  It must also be noted that they Jazz  top big men got banged up last night as Favors (stitches above his eye)  and Gobert (left knee injury) if they play will be less than 100% which will also effect the Jazz offensive output in this spot. With that said, I'm betting on the Jazz third ranked D, and 24th ranked pace to be key elements in a stagnated combined offensive output vs an explosive opponent which will directly effect the combined score to fall below the posted Total.

UTAH is 38-19 UNDER  L/57  in road games versus lower tier defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game.  Under is 5-1 in Jazz last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 7-3 in Jazz last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.Under is 7-2-1 in Cavaliers last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (UTAH) - in a game involving two excellent free throw shooting teams (79% or better), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5 TO's or less) are 28-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play on UNDER

Charlotte enters this game having seen a combined average of 212.5 ppg go on the board in their home games this season. Meanwhile, the Blazers a have seen a combined average of 205 ppg get scored in their road tilts. My own numbers and matchup stats and projections put this total closer to 207, after considering both sides usual pace numbers, which gives us value to the over with this number we are betting into.

PORTLAND is 11-1 OVER in road games after a combined score of 185 points or less which happened in their 95-88 win vs the Magic yesterday. the combined average score of those tilts was 220.3 ppg.
 

CHARLOTTE  in 7 games  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing  14 or less turnovers/game this season, have seen a combined average of 217.9 ppg go on the board.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (CHARLOTTE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, a lower tier team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 40-13 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

The  Utah Jazz despite of owning one of the lower pace numbers in the league  and  strong D , are taking part in some fairly high scoring games of late, with combined scores of 213, 217, 203 combined points going on the board in their L/3 trips to the court. The Jazz themselves have scored 100 or more points in 9 of their L/10, and have allowed 100 or more points in 7 of their L/10. with that said, and this being the Jazz's third straight road game , fatigue will play a major part in more defensive breakdowns in this spot and a wider open game.  Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics despite of being a solid defensive team as well, are on tired legs after a high scoring run and gun affair vs the Denver Nuggets last time out taking, a 124-118 win, and won't have the energy to play hardcore physical hoops tonight, which I'm betting will make this a higher scoring game than many pundits might anticipate.

Over is 10-4 in Celtics last 14 overall.Over is 25-10-1 in Celtics last 36 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 7-2 in Celtics last 9 vs. NBA Northwest.

BOSTON in their L/20 games when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 204.3 ppg scored.

BOSTON is 19-6 OVER  L/25 in home games after a combined score of 235 points with a combined average of 212.8 ppg going on the board.

NBA Road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (UTAH) - after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 32-5 OVER L/21 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play OVER

The Lakers enter this game having scored 100 or more points in 12 of their L/13 overall games, in mostly wide open run and gun affairs as they rank No.1 in pace in the league (102.4). On the season the Lakers defense has allowed 108.9 ppg and rank 24th in the league. Meanwhile, Cleveland the Lakers hosts tonight, are ranked 3rd in the league in offense (111 ppg) and are ranked 23rd in defense, in what has become a wide open high scoring entertaining circus. Tonight I expect the Lakers young legs to try to keep up with the senior/star laden Cavaliers lineup in a game that I expect to eclipse the number.

CLEVELAND is 25-12 OVER  L/37 versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game with a combined average of 224.6 ppg scored.CLEVELAND in 7 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season have seen the combined average score click in at 224.4 ppg.

Over is 8-0 in Cavaliers last 8 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.Over is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CLEVELAND) - after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 3 straight games are  44-17 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

Play OVER

The Rockets' exerted a lot of energy in a  130-123 win over the New Orleans Pelicans on Monday night at Toyota Center , that will now have them on tired legs. Last night they had to come back ferociously with a small ball lineup after their defense was torched for the first three quarters, something that will concern the coaching staff , and will have the Rockets more vigilant in transition here this evening vs the Charlotte Hornets. Meanwhile, the Hornets will want to slow this game down, vs an explosive opponent, as their own offense has been very inconsistent this season,  ranking 20th in offensive rating (103.3) and rank in the bottom 5 in field-goal percentage (27th) and effective field-goal percentage (29th). Charlotte is  also 24th in 3-pointers made (nine) and attempted (25.3) per game. Needless to say, the slower the better, and after last nights run and gun affair, I'm betting the Rockets wont mind a slower paced affair either. Note: The two most recent meetings in this series this season have gone under the Total with 202 combined ppg going on the board in both tilts (Houston won both games).  I'm betting on a similar score tonight.

CHARLOTTE is 26-11 UNDER  L/37 revenging a home loss vs opponent with a combined average of 200.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CHARLOTTE) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a road win are 24-4 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Kings enter this game consistently showing slow starts to their games averaging only 23.0 points in the first 12 minutes and have been held below 20 nine times in their 26 first quarters. Meanwhile, the Suns are averaging nearly 24 points in the opening 12 minutes of their past five games, and that includes a 17-point opening quarter in the loss to San Antonio. With leading scorer Booker out, the Suns overall offensive production flow and energy should also be muted.  These  above mentioned kinds of starts can translate into lower scoring games than many might expect, and that's what I m betting on tonight.

SACRAMENTO is 23-12 UNDER  when the total is 210 to 219.5.Under is 6-1 in Suns last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 19-8 in Kings last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Under is 19-7 in Kings last 26 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PHOENIX) - lower tier team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game, after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 20-54 UNDER L/20 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

These teams have two of the top defenses in the league. Their numbers are obviously accumulated /calculated from playing all types of teams . However, when looking at a head on matchup, both can score consistently and offensive flow is something that just something that comes with matchups like this. The Celtics average more than 103 ppg on the road, while the Spurs average 106 + ppg at home. When these teams met earlier this season the Boston crew took out the men from San Antonio via a 108-94 ( 202 pts). Tonight I expect a little bit more scoring and a faster pace, as the home town team comes out looking for revenge. I'm betting the Spurs will come out here on fire, and for the Celtics to have to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown off the court. Even if the game staggers into a proverbial physical battle, both teams ability to light things up in transition will have this tilt eclipse the beatable number.

Over is 6-0 in Celtics last 6 road games.Over is 8-2 in Celtics last 10 overall.Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 6-1 in Spurs last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Over is 13-4 in Spurs last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

SAN ANTONIO is 22-10 OVER revenging a loss vs opponent with a combined average of 210.8 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 14-4 OVER L/18 versus good defensive teams - allowing 98 points/game or less with a combined average of 199.8 ppg going on the scoreboard.BOSTON is 14-4 OVER when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points with a combined average of 204.7 ppg going on the board.




NBA teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (BOSTON) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after a win by 10 points or more are 46-17 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

NBA teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, on Friday nights are 45-15 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play OVER