Detroit HC Dwane Casey exhausted his starters   in a game that started late last night. The Pistons then had to make the 90-minute flight into the San Francisco Bay Area, finally getting settled well into the morning on a day in which they're scheduled for an early (5:30 p.m. Pacific) start. The Pistons now on tired legs and dealing with unfortunate scheduling just wont be up to playing the physical brand of D, thye need to to be able to slow the Warriors down. Im betting on Golden State off a ugly 91 point output last time out to  really rev things up here and to put a boatload full of points on the board in a game I have pegged to go over the total. 

DETROIT is 7-0 OVER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. with a combined average o f223.9 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite of 10 points or more are 38-12 OVER L/5  seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DETROIT) - after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten game are 122-80 OVER L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Pacers are leagues No.1 team in ppg allowed at 104.2 and own the 23rd ranked pace and just 22nd in offence  and base all their successes and failures on their D and nothing will change tonight against a Denver team that is extremely tired as they play their 3rd road game in 4 days. Im betting on the Pacers defensive prowess and the Nuggets tired legs to contribute a muted total score that fails to eclipse this total. 

 
INDIANA is 7-0 UNDER versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 203.5 ppg scored.McMillan is 15-4 UNDER  in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) as the coach of INDIANA with a combined average of 205.7 ppg scored.

NBA home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (INDIANA) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in March games are 154-83 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER) - extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 51-18 UNDER  L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UNDER 

Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable for tonight and if he plays could see limited time thanks to some less than serious nagging ankle issues.The Bucks suffered another setback Saturday night with reports that center Pau Gasol will miss the rest of the regular season with an injured left ankle. This could take away  from the Bucks flow tonight which will directly effect overall offensive output, which in turn will help keep this score at the lower end of the spectrum. Also considering that the Bucks own the leagues No.1 defensive efficiency rate , a Cleveland team that ranks 29th in pace and and 29th in offensive output could easily find themselves dragging along here in a sleeper game than many expect.

MILWAUKEE is 11-3 UNDER versus lower tier teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game this season with a combined average of 220.3 ppg scored. 

CLEVELAND is 11-1 UNDER  after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 203.4 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

The Grizzlies are 7-3 in their last 10 home games and  it   began with a 108-106 victory  over Minnesota on Feb. 5.  Note: MINNESOTA is 12-1 OVER   revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season with a combined average of 238.5 ppg scored.With that said, Im betting the Wolves come here and force, and push the Grizzlies into a back and forth scoring fest , which the Grizzlies have looked comfortable in of late with their last four games seeing a combined 249.7 ppg scored with all four easily going over the set total.

Play on the OVER 

Utah ranks 2nd in defensive rating in the NBA  and just 19th in offensive output, thus making playing defensive hoops a priority. The Jazz have kept 4 of their L/7 opponents under the 98 point plateau and Im betting will be ready to once again play some staunch defensive hoops in this spot vs the Bulls. Considering the Bulls are ranked 27th in offence in the league this season behind the 20th ranked pace , I wont be surprised if their output is limited, which in turn will help keep this score on the low side of the total. 

 CHICAGO is 21-12 UNDER  when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHICAGO) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 69-33 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

It looks like LeBron James  will play tonight for the struggling Lakers, but even with him on the floor the team does not look motivated or very fluent offensively . It must be noted the Lakers failed to eclipse the 100 point plateau in 3 of their L/7 games. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is off a tenacious DD come from   behind victory vs Sacramento last time out for a win and will be in a natural letdown spot and on tired legs as they play their 5th straight road game. 

LA LAKERS are 21-5 UNDER  after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season with a combined average of 219.3 ppg going on the board.

BROOKLYN is 14-4 UNDER after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games this season with a combined average of 210.9 ppg scored. ( Prior to those games the Nets looked tired and failed to eclipse the 100 point plateau in their first two road games of this trip)

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BROOKLYN) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in March games are 71-31 UNDER L22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

It's no secret that Indianas successes and failures on their ability-to play a top tier brand of the hoops.  The Pacers rank 1 in ppg allowed in the NBA 24th and pace and 22nd in offence. Tonight against the explosive Warriors their D, and conservative transitional game Im betting will be on full display. INDIANA is 21-6 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots this season with a combined average of 211.2 ppg. INDIANA is 23-7 UNDER  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.9 ppg. 

As the Warriors prepare for the play offs Defence, has become very important as  is evident by  GOLDEN STATE going 8-0 UNDER L/8 in March games this season  and 20-8 UNDER (after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. 

The Warriors are 1-17 on the UNDER as a home 8+ favorite with less than two days rest facing an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game.

The Pacers are 0-10 L/10 UNDER as a road dog off a loss when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (INDIANA) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in March games are 69-31 UNDER  L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

CBB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in March games are 106-53 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 67% long term conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

The Bulls put up a nice defensive effort vs Phoenix last time out in a 116-111 win and Im betting they will continue to pay attention in transition, and force the run and gun Wizards out of their comfort zone with a more precise pace. This will result in a score that remains on the low side of the total.

The Wizards are 0-11 UNDER L/11 as a favorite with less than two days rest when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss at home with a combined average of 201 ppg scored.

Under is 4-0 in Wizards last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 11-5-1 in Wizards last 17 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 5-0 in Wizards last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.

CHICAGO is 13-4 UNDER  in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season with a combined average of 214.4 ppg. CHICAGO is 9-1 UNDER in home games after a non-conference game this season with a combined average of 208.4 ppg scored.The Bulls are 4-20-1 UNDER L/25 as a dog with rest off a win in which they had an assist percentage at least 10 worse than their season-to-date average with non of the games eclipsing this total.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (CHICAGO) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (47% or more ) after 42+ games, in a game involving two poor rebounding teams (-3 to -5.5 reb/game) are 26-4 UNDER L/22seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 204.6 ppg scored.

Play on the UNDER 

The Sixers took out the Milwaukee Bucks in a 130-125 offensive slugfest yesterday , and will now be in a natural letdown spot, and less than ready to run and gun vs a Charlotte side that is off a   93-75 loss at Miami on Sunday .The Hornets are 7-28 L/35  UNDER with rest off a loss in a road game in which they had more turnovers than assists wth a combined average of 190.3 ppg scored.

Im now expecting the Sixers a team that HC Brown has said needs to pay more attention to the defensive end as the play offs come closer to practice stringent defence in transition .  It must also be noted that the 76ers are 8-1 UNDER  in road games versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average 218 ppg scored.

The Seventysixers are 0-11-1 UNDER L/12 on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with rest after playing as a road dog facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with the combined average score of 205.3 ppg going on the board.

PHILADELPHIA is 18-6 UNDER  after a combined score of 245 points or more with a combined average of 205.5 ppg.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 41-14 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

The Portland Trail Blazers' starting lineup will  be missing a key cog Monday night when the Indiana Pacers come into Oregon.The Blazers will be without starting shooting guard CJ McCollum( knee injury) which will effect the flow of this game for the Blazers offensively. The guard averages 21.3 ppg .  This will in turn directly effect the total offensive output of this tilt vs a defensive minded eastern conference team in the Pacers. Note: INDIANA is 22-6 UNDER ( versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 206.4 ppg scored.INDIANA is 11-2 UNDER  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 197.7 ppg scored.

Under is 6-0 in Pacers last 6 overall.Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 road games.Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 games following a straight up loss.Under is 21-6-1 in Pacers last 28 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 10-3 in Pacers last 13 vs. NBA Northwest.Under is 23-8 in Pacers last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 22-8 in Pacers last 30 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 5-2 in Pacers last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 37-17 in Pacers last 54 games following a ATS win.Under is 64-30-1 in Pacers last 95 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 47-23 in Pacers last 70 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

The Trailblazers are 0-12 UNDER L/12 at home off a loss in which they had at least 15 more shots than their opponent with a combined average of 190.3 ppg scored

The Trailblazers are 4-21 UNDER L/25 as a home favorite off a loss in a road game in which they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers with a combined average of 189 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

This is Chicagos fourth game in week and their on tired legs , while, this is the Suns 3rd game in 4 nights, with their last game going into OT on the road. Fatigue here at this juncture of the season, as well as past trends in matchups like this give us value with a under wager. 

The Suns are 0-8 OU L/9 at home off a game as a dog in which they had overtime with a combined average of 202.7 ppg scored and  is 8-0 UNDER  versus struggling  teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 216.6 ppg scored.

CHICAGO is 23-12 UNDER  versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 211 ppg going on the board.The Bulls are 6-26 UNDER L/32 when the line is within 3 of pick off a road game in which their opponent shot over 50% from the field with a combined average of 189.1 ppg scored.

NBA team (PHOENIX) - off a road win by 3 points or less, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 94-53 UNDER L/64% L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHICAGO) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, in March games and are 105-52 UNDER  L/22 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Miami beat Charlotte at home Sunday, holding the Hornets to a season-low 75 points. Tonight however, on tired legs that kind of effort Im betting wont come close to happening, as the Thunder will bring out the big guns behind the 3rd ranked pace  in an effort not to play to the Heats preferred method of hoops which right now seems methodical ranking 25th in pace behind an offence that ranks 25th in offensive output.Note: Oklahoma City won the first meeting between the teams, 118-102, on Feb. 1 in Miami, and Im betting on a similar output here tonight. 

The Thunder are 12-1 OVER as a favorite off a loss as a favorite in which they had 3 or fewer double digit scorers with a combined average of 229.1 ppg scored. 

Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 vs. Western Conference.Over is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 vs. NBA Southeast.

Play on the OVER 

Im betting on a big time back and forth offensive battle here tonight with the total being eclipsed. Both these teams have played decent defence of late, but this will will morph out of control just because of the kind of energy that will be exerted here and the fact that after getting clobbered by Golden State 141-102 in an earlier meeting the Spurs will come out here with all guns blazing in ok coral revenge  style hoops . GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 OVER after game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 35% or less over the last 3 seasons which happened last time out vs Oklahoma City l, with the combined average score of those follow up games Clicking in at 236.7 ppg. The Warriors are also 9-0 L/9 OVER as a road favorite off a road win in which Stephen Curry attempted more three pointers than two pointers with a combined average of 244.8 ppg scored. 

Over is 9-3 in Spurs last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Play OVER 

These are two of the top teams in the NBA , and at this time of the season, play off bound sides like this like to play a top tier brand of defence, knowing that that will be key to any successes or failures they have in a quest for a championship ring. With that said, Im recommending a under wager in this spot.  

Under is 6-0 in Celtics last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Under is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 road games.Under is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 7-0 in Nuggets last 7 games following a straight up win.Under is 6-0 in Nuggets last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 12-1 in Nuggets last 13 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 10-1 in Nuggets last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 10-1 in Nuggets last 11 overall.Under is 10-1 in Nuggets last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 9-1 in Nuggets last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 9-1 in Nuggets last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Nuggets last 7 games following a ATS loss.

The Nuggets are 0-11 UNDER L/11 after they scored more than 50 points in the paint with a combined average of 214.9 ppg scored.

DENVER is 21-10 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season with the combined average score clicking in at 219 ppg. 

The Celtics are 3-21 UNDER L/24 when the line is within 3 of pick off a win as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 6 refereed turnovers per game with a combined average of 186.8 ppg going on the board with only 1 of the 24 games eclipsing this total. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DENVER) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in March games are 62-25 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.  

Play UNDER 

As the post season gets closer Utah a team that ranks 20th in ppg on offence bases its successes and failures on their ability to play top tier defence which is  what they currently doing  as they enter this tilt ranking 3rd in defensive efficiency in the NBA.  The Jazz have been particularly stingy of late as they have not allowed any of their L/4 opponents to breach the 100 point plateau with all 4 games remaining on the low side of the total. Meanwhile, Washington loves to run and gun, but if anyone can stall the Wizards it will be the Jazz, and thats what Im betting on here tonight in a tilt I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total. 

Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Washington.Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.

Under is 6-0 in Jazz last 6 Monday games.Under is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Under is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Jazz last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Jazz last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 9-2 in Jazz last 11 vs. NBA Southeast.Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 12-4 in Jazz last 16 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 6-2 in Jazz last 8 games following a straight up win.

Under is 13-3 in Wizards last 16 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 games following a ATS win.Under is 4-0 in Wizards last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.

The Wizards are 2-16 UNDER L/18 as a dog off a win in which their points increased by at least 25 from the game before with a .combined average score of 188.8 ppg scored.

The Jazz are 1-13 UNDER L/14 as a favorite with rest after playing as a home favorite facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average of 209.9 ppg scored.

Play UNDER

 Cleveland Cavaliers know they have to do a much better job containing the Detroit Pistons' front court duo of Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond as they try to avoid being swept in the season series, and will be out looking to play a much better brand of defense, something they know Detroit is very capable of doing. This Im betting leads to a lower scoring game then the linesmakers expect. Note:DETROIT is 10-1 UNDER when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season with a combined average of 201.6 ppg. Casey is 10-0 UNDER  when playing 8 or more games in 14 days as the coach of DETROIT with a combined average of 204 ppg.

The Cavaliers are 1-12 L/13 as a home dog with rest when they are off two games in which their opponent scored 10+ more points than their respective averages with a combined average of 189 ppg.

DETROIT is 25-10 UNDER  in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.5 ppg. The Pistons are 2-20 on the UNDER L/22 as a road favorite with no rest off a win in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers with a  combined average 176.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DETROIT) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, in March games are 80-43 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

 Last season, when these teams met here the  Clippers shot 52.4 percent in a 123-120 home win over the Nets on March 4, 2018. My projections estimate a similar score here again despite of partially different lineups. 

LA CLIPPERS are 11-2 OVER  after allowing 110 points or more 4 straight games this season with a combined average of 240.9 ppg.

The Clippers have the 9th fastest pace in the league and the 6th best offensive output and the 24th ranked D and will play at a speed that will force the Nets into opening up. 

LA CLIPPERS in 18  home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season have seen a combined average score of 235.9 ppg scored.LA CLIPPERS in 30  home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season have seen a combined average score of 233.4 ppg scored.LA CLIPPERS are 12-4 OVER  as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season with a combined average score of 233.3 ppg. 

The Clippers are 12-0-1 OVER as a favorite with less than two days rest off a home game in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers with the last 4 games in this trend from this season and last seeing a combined average of 240.5 ppg scored.

The Nets are 10-0-1 OVER on the road with no rest after they scored 10 or more points in the fourth than the first quarter with the L/6 in this subset seeing substantial totals record with the combined average score of 236.8 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

The Kings are coming off a 1-3 Eastern swing that ended with three straight losses and will highly likely still be on tired legs as they get reacquainted with being at home again. I see theKings being a little bit more conservative in their approach here, and for the Bulls who rank 20th in pace to be in no hurry to rush the explosive Kings. 

Kings smacked the Bulls by a  108-89 in Chicago in December and Im betting that type of winning formula could be implemented by the Kings here again tonight vs a light scoring opponent averaging just 105 ppg on the season for a 29th offensive efficiency ranking. 

The Kings are 0-16 /16 UNDER as a favorite with rest facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5 with a combined average of 204.3 ppg scored.The Kings are 0-13 L/13 UNDER as a home favorite with rest facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average score of 204.3 ppg scored.

The Bulls are 4-22 UNDER L/26 as a road dog with rest off a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 62 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average of 196.3 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHICAGO) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 47-18 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The last time these teams met on Detroit on March 3rd they won 112-107 in overtime . Im betting on this game being played at a similar speed this time around and for strong efforts D by both sides, to once again be key to this total staying under in what Im hoping is a regulation tilt. 

DETROIT is 11-2 UNDER when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season with a combined average of 202.6 ppg scored. he Pistons are 0-9 UNDER as a dog with less than two days rest off a win after allowing 50-plus points in the paint with a combined average of 196.7 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DETROIT) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, in March games are 94-47 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Miami leads the Orlando Magic and Charlotte by just one game in the Eastern Conference playoff standings - with the No. 8 seed likely to face the Bucks in the first round of the postseason. so this is an important game with post season implications, and will be played very physically, which will reflect on the scoreboard in what will be a muted effort according to my projections. Miami beat Charlotte 91-84 when they played on March 6th and similar type game is not out of the question.

The Heat are 1-13-1 on the UNDER with rest after playing as a home dog facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s with a combined average of 197.5 ppg scored.The Heat are 0-10-1 on the UNDER with less than two days rest off a loss as a dog in which their opponent had at least a 10 percent higher BAP with a combined average of 184.8 ppg scored.

CHARLOTTE is 14-4 UNDER  in road games after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 208.1 ppg scored.CHARLOTTE is 22-7 UNDER  revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 204.1 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Two western conference teams  off games last night and on energy deficient legs and , jockeying for post season positions , Im betting will take part in a hard fought physical game this evening which will see the combined score stay on the low side the total. 

The Spurs have gone under in 7 of the L/8 games. 

SAN ANTONIO is 24-12 UNDER L/36 in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.9 ppg scored.The Spurs are 1-14-1 UNDER L/15 as a favorite with less than two days rest off a win as a home favorite when playing on Saturday with no rest with a combined average of 185 ppg scored.SAN ANTONIO is 7-0 UNDER  in home games on Saturday games this season with a combined average of 204 ppg scored. The Spurs are 0-10 UNDER L/10 with no rest off a home game in which they shot over 50% from the field with a combined average of 192.2 ppg scored.

PORTLAND is 33-14 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 210.2 ppg scored. The Trailblazers are 4-21-1 OU (when the line is within 3 of pick after a game with 8+ lead changes with a combined average of 207.8 ppg scored.The Trailblazers are 0-9 UNDER on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest off a win facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws with a combined average of 203.7 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in March games are 59-20 UNDER L22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER 

The Cavaliers are allowing more than 114 ppg  on 49% shooting this season on the road and look ready to be taken advantage of again tonight in Dallas as they have allowed around a 50% FG conversion rate to competitors in a recent 5 game span. Meanwhile, I expect the Cavs behind Kevin Love to answer back offensively vs a host in Dallas that has allowed 113.6 ppg in their L/5 with teams clicking in with a 48+ FG conversion rate. Everything points to this matchup featuring a high scoring affair that eclipses this total. 

The Mavericks are 11-0 OVER L/11 after they had fewer than 10 turnovers in a previous game with a combined average of 234.8 ppg scored.

The Cavaliers are 16-3-1 OU with rest after playing as a road dog facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average of 219 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CLEVELAND) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 58-32 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. 

Play OVER 

Memphis is just playing out their season, and a lot of younger players are seeing floor time, and as result flow has been off. Meanwhile, Washington  is off playing last night and are on tired legs and will not be prepared to un and gun but rather play solid defensive ball as they chase theMiami Heat fro a final play off spot. With that said, Im betting on a combined score that stays on the low side the total.

Bickerstaff is 10-1 UNDER  after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games in all games he has coached

MEMPHIS is 26-7 UNDER after playing a road game this season and 19-4 UNDER L/22 off a road loss this season with a combined average of 201.7 ppg scored. The Grizzlies are 0-10 UNDER on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a loss in a road game with a combined average of 188 ppg scored. The Grizzlies are 0-9-1 UNDER on the road off a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s with a combined average of 202.4 ppg scored. 

MEMPHIS is 38-21 UNDER versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 205.5 ppg.

The Wizards are 0-12 UNDER L/12 as a favorite with less than two days rest off a home game after rebounding less than 20% of their own misses with a combined average of 203.2 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 60-24 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Chicago has been slumping of late losing 5 of their L/6 but  is expected to have leading scorer Zach LaVine back against the Clippers which Im betting significantly increases their ability to put points up on the board tonight in a tilt I have pegged to go over the set total. Note: The Clippers are ranked 6th in offensive output in the league averaging 114.4 ppg and at home have average more than 117 ppg, behind the 9th ranked pace and tonight vs a Chicago team ranked 25th in Defensive efficiency  Im betting the explosive Clippers will do a great deal of offensive damage again. The Bulls have allowed more than 115 ppg in their L/5 tilts overall as their defence remains their Achilles heel and I look for them to chase and score with reckless abandon here with LaVine back in the lineup.  Note: Clippers are ranked 23rd in D in the league and have allowed more than 115 ppg in their L/5 overall. There will not chants of DEFENCE, DEFENCE , DEFENCE in this one. 

LA CLIPPERS are 8-1 OVER in home games after allowing 110 points or more 3 straight games this season have seen a combine score of 235.7 ppg going on the board. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA CLIPPERS) - after allowing 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 225 points or more are 109-56 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (CHICAGO) - after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games are 117-63 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play OVER 

The Magic played a defensive minded game last night and ended up on the short end of a 100-90 defeat at the hands of the Washington Wizards. The Magic now even more desperate for wins as they pursue a play off spot should be ready to let loose here and leave nothing to chance while, the now capable Cavs behind Kevin Love should fire back in unison. This Im betting leads to a higher scoring tilt than the lines makers have projected. 

The Magic are 9-0 OVER  with no rest facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc with a combined average score of 233.5 ppg scored.

The Cavaliers are 14-1 OVER off a road game in which they scored 10 or more points in the fourth than the first quarter with a combined average of 222.5 ppg scored. 

CLEVELAND is 13-4 OVER off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 223.3 ppg scored. The Cavaliers are 27-7-1 OVER L/35 with rest after playing as a road dog facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s with a combined average of 224.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (ORLANDO) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 39-14 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

After struggling in February the Boston Celtics are back to playing a top tier brand of hoops, that centers around playing a strong brand of defensive basketball . The Celtics currently 4th   in ppg allowed and defensive efficiency in the NBA. Tonight against a Clippers team that they have revenge on board against the Clippers for uncharacteristically ugly loss at home by a 123-112 count  in feb when they were slumping, Im now betting on them playing a lock down style of defense that will directly effect the overall offensive ouptut of this tilt. 

BOSTON is 11-2 UNDER in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 201.1 ppg scored.

BOSTON is 13-2 UNDER  in road games versus lower tier defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 213.5 ppg scored.BOSTON is 8-1 UNDER  in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this seasonwith a combined average of 215.6 ppg going on the board.The Celtics are 7-34-2 OU UNDER  on the road with less than two days rest off a win as a favorite in which they scored fewer than 10 fast break points with a combined average score of 185.7 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

The Clippers are 0-12 UNDER with more than one day of rest off a win as a favorite in which they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers with a combined average of 195.2 ppg going on the board.

LA CLIPPERS are 15-4 UNDER L/19  in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season with a combined average of 221.5 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more against opponent off a home win are 36-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettor with a combined average score of 204.7 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

As Houston starts gearing up for the play offs, they are beginning to play lock down defence, which has been evident in their L/3 recent wins where they held Toronto, Dallas, and Philadelphia all under 95 points or less. Charlotte in their current form are alos a team the Rockets can easily shut down, and after playing last night wont be in the mood to run and gun anyway, which Im betting aids this game in staying under the set total. 

CHARLOTTE is 8-1 UNDER revenging a home loss vs opponent this season and is s 15-4 UNDER in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons. *Houston beat them 118-113 on Feb 27th in Charlotte. The Hornets are 0-13 UNDER L/13 on the road with rest off a road game when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home with a combined average score of 185.5 ppg scored.

The Rockets are 0-10 L/10 UNDER at home with no rest after playing as a road favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 6 refereed turnovers per game with a combine average of 193.5 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in March games are 49-14 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Detroit won 103-100 win in its season opener on Oct. 17, and Brooklyn claimed a 120-119 overtime victory on Oct. 31. Note: DETROIT is 10-2 UNDER   in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season with a combined average of 207.7 ppg scored.

These teams current form is different than it was back then, and according to my new projections this game should be played closer to the way the first game was played. With Detroit on tired legs having played yesterday, and this their 3rd game in 4 nights Im betting this Motown crew wont have enough energy to run and gun with the sometimes explosive Nets, and instead will rely on a more conservative defensive brand of basketball, something HC Casey has been unhappy with lately despite of getting victories. DETROIT is 12-3 UNDER  in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season and is  8-1 UNDER  when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season and 11-1 UNDER after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher over the last 3 seasons. 

Recently Brooklyn has seen 4 straight games stay under the total, so their trending to the low side, and are 13-4 UNDER  after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games this season which just happened. 

Under is 28-10-1 in Pistons last 39 games playing on 0 days rest.Under is 11-4 in Pistons last 15 road games.Under is 27-12-1 in Pistons last 40 Monday games.Under is 32-15-4 in Pistons last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Under is 4-0 in Nets last 4 overall.Under is 8-1 in Nets last 9 Monday games.Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BROOKLYN) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in March games are 49-13 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Im betting the Suns a team on a 3 game win streak, and off allowing their last opponent to score under 100 points will try to keep the blueprint of playing a tighter brand of defensive ball continue to take its course. Meanwhile, Portland off a run and gun gruelling OT game vs the Thunder last time out will have a bit of a reversion, which Im betting helps this combined score say under the Total. 

PHOENIX in 37 games when playing against a team with a winning record this season has seen a combined average score of 221.1 ppg. PHOENIX in 44 games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season have seen a combined average score of 223.2 ppg scored. 

The Trailblazers are 0-14-1 UNDER as a home favorite after a game as a home favorite in which they had an assist percentage at least 10 worse than their season-to-date average of 193.7 ppg going on the board. The Suns are 0-11-1 UNDER L/12 as a dog off a 10+ win as a favorite when the line is at least 12 points higher than their last game. 

None of the 5 most recent games in this series dating back to last season have eclipsed this totals number that is being offered. 

Play UNDER 

Indiana has one chance to stay competitive vs an explosive Milwaukee team here on the road and that is via a conservative style of defensive play. Thats what Im betting they try to implement , which will result in a lower scoring tilt than the linesmakers are expecting. ( More analysis to come thank you for your patience)

INDIANA is 25-9 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 201.3 ppg scored.INDIANA is 17-5 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots this season with a combined average of 211,2 ppg scored. INDIANA is 13-4 UNDER  in March games over the last 2  seasons with a combined average of 200.8 ppg. McMillan is 40-19 UNDER  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game as the coach of INDIANA with a combined average score of 210.9 ppg scored. The Pacers are 1-13 UNDER L/13 as a road dog after they had at least 30% of their points from threes with a combined average of 195.6 ppg scored.

The Bucks are 1-13 UNDER L/14 as a favorite off a game as a favorite in which they shot under 40% from the field with a combined average of 184.8 ppg going on the board.The Bucks are 2-15-1 UNDER at home with more than one day of rest off a game as a favorite after a game that was tied 5+ times ( which happened vs Phoenix last time out) with the combined average score of those games clicking in at 189.8 ppg.

Play UNDER 

These teams have absolutely nothing to play for other than stacking up personal stats, and Im betting it will be played wide open and loose as a result of this games lack of importance. When these played back in December of this season they combined for 238 points and a similar type output is not out of the question in this spot according to my projections. 

NYK ranks 27th in the league in defensive rating, while Phoenix ranks 29th in defensive rating. 

The Knicks are 13-0-1 OU  as a dog with rest off a loss in a road game when they are off two games in which they allowed 110+ points with the combined average score of those tilts clicking in at 239.1 ppg. ( NYK has allowed 125,115,128 points in their L3 games)

Play OVER 

Indiana enters this game ranked 2nd in both ppg allowed and defensive efficiency and 24th in pace. On offence they rank 22nd , which makes it obvious to me that they base all their successes and failures on their ability to play a strong transitional game that focuses on top tier defensive play. The Pacers have gotten away from that lately and have coincindetly lost 3 of their L/4, and Im betting a more concerted defensive effort here in an attempt to right tehir ship. Meanwhile, the visiting Chicago Bulls rank 28th in offense , behind the 21st ranked pace,  and despite of back to back freewheeling affairs against a no defense allowed  Atlanta team in their last two outings, should now revert back to their norm here in a division game I have pegged to be competitive .  

The Pacers are 2-20-1 UNDER as a home 8+ favorite with rest off a home game facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls-against per game and have gone under12 straight times overall under these perimeters with the average combined score of the 23 games clicking in at 181.5 ppg . 

The Bulls are 3-21-1 L/25 UNDER as a dog with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 62 ppg from 2-point range with the combined average of 187 ppg scored. 

INDIANA is 16-3 UNDER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season and is 15-2 UNDER in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 199 ppg going on the score board.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (INDIANA) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or better) against an average shooting team (43.5-45.5%), after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 27-6 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors on the bind. 

Play UNDER 

NYK HC Fizdale is 13-3 UNDER  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996. Im betting he once again implement a more methodical game plan here against a Kings side that loves to run and gun! 

SACRAMENTO is 24-10 UNDER as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 207.9 ppg. SACRAMENTO is 54-30 UNDER when the total is 220 to 230 with a combined average of 219.1 ppg.

NYK HC Fizdale is 13-3 UNDER  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996. 

SACRAMENTO is 15-6 UNDER in non-conference games this season with a combined avrage fo 223.3 ppg going on the board.

NEW YORK is 11-3 UNDER versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or less assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season with . combined average of 211.4  ppg going on the board .

The Kings are 0-14 on the UNDER as a rested favorite when they are facing a team with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.50 with a combined average of 203.6 ppg scored.

The Knicks are 0-10-1 OU  on the road with less than two days rest off a loss in which their opponent shot 50% or better from beyond the arc with at least 10 attempts with a combined average of 189 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SACRAMENTO) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, in March game are 183-111 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The host team Brooklyn in this matchup  is struggling overall and are allowing 121.7 points and 49.3 percent shooting during a recent 3 game run. Meanwhile, the visiting  Mavericks' are  allowing 114.9 points on 47.2 percent shooting in the last seven games overall. Both sides are exhibiting poor defensive abilities, and Im betting on this trend continuing here this evening.

The Mavericks are 9-0 OVER L/9 on the road off a loss in which they scored 15 or more points in the first than the second half with the combined average score of 228.1 ppg scored. 

 The Nets are 9-0 OVER L/9 with rest after they had less than 40% of the total rebounds  with the combined score of 234.3 ppg.

Play OVER 

I expect a young athletic Magic frontline that includes Aaron Gordon (25), Jonathan Isaac (21) and Nikola Vucevic (28) to come at the last place ranked D in the league ,Cleveland with both barrels loaded as they continue to push behind the momentum of a big road win last night in Indiana as underdogs. I expect for Cleveland to fire back with some explosive fireworks of their own in chase mode and give a score that eclipses this number. 

Note: Orlando has 18 underdog wins this season, and the average combined score of their followup tilt clicks in at 225.1 ppg.

The Magic are 11-0 OVER off a win as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s with a combined average of 230 ppg going on the board which was the case last night in their wn vs Indiana.The Magic are 13-1 OVER  off a win as a dog with a combined average of 228.3 ppg scored.

NBA team (CLEVELAND) - off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a division rival, a struggling  team (25% or less wins) playing a team with a losing record are 45-19 OVER L/22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Trail Blazers defeated the Raptors 128-122 in Portland on Dec. 14 and Im betting on a similar offensive output by both teams here tonight in TO. The Raptors are averaging more than 115 ppg at home this season, and the Blazers are averaging 113.5 ppg overall on offence. In Toronto's last five game they have seen a combined average score of more than 232 ppg go on the board, while Portland has scored more than 218 ppg on offence in their L/5 , and Im betting they wil force the Raps explosive attack to gear up in response , which will result in a high scoring slugfest according to my projections. 

The Trailblazers are 11-0 OU  L/11 with rest off a win in a road game in which their opponent shot worse than 25% from beyond the arc with at least 20 attempts.

Play OVER 

The last time these teams played  on Feb 23 Brooklyn took out Charlotte as road dogs by a 117-115 count, but  in the past when the Hornets are looking for revenge they have shown a propensity to be more methodical in their approach . Note: The Hornets are 1-20 OV/UNDER  on the road with rest when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home with a combined average of 198.8 ppg scored. Also the Hornets are 0-12 OU on the road with rest off a loss when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home which was the case in a loss the Rockets last time out in a ugly defensive display allowing 118 points and blowing a lead. This will make the Hornets even more concentrated on playing better defence here tonight. Meanwhile, the Nets are 0-13 OU with rest off a loss as a favorite in which they scored more than 50 points in the paint which was the situation vs Washington when they allowed 125 points in a back forth event and Im betting they will also be more diligent defensively in rebound mode. The Nets are also  0-13 OU L/13 as a home favorite off a loss in which they shot worse than 25% from beyond the arc with at least 20 attempts with a combined average of 187.5 ppg scored. With both teams needing better defensive play Im betting on a lower scoring output than the linesmakers expect.

CHARLOTTE is 8-0 UNDER  revenging a home loss vs opponent this season with the combined average score of 207.8 ppg scored.CHARLOTTE is 15-3 UNDER  in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.8 ppg going on the board. 

NBA road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHARLOTTE) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, in March games are 99-48 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind!

Play UNDER

The Golden Stare Warriors took part in a hard fought 126-125 loss last night vs the Miami Heat  and will enter todays game on tired legs. Now Im betting they will revert to a more defensive stance here tonight vs the Orlando Magic, because of their need to correct their  defensive lapses and their inability to go full tilt after playing last night .HC Kerr is 21-9 UNDER  in road games off a road loss as the coach of GOLDEN STATE with a combined average of 214 ppg scored. Meanwhile, Orlando ranks 25th in offensive output and  26th in pace and is usually methodical in their approach and tonight against a dangerous opponent could even be more conservative thus effecting the output of both sides.The Magic are 0-14 UNDER  at home off a loss when they lost at least three straight vs their opponent.( they lost in NY last time out and have lost 5 straight vs the Warriors) None of the 14 games came even close to this total with the highest output coming in 1t 217 combined points with the average combined score clicking in at 200 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

Boston Im betting will do what they  do best and that is play top tier defence in an effort to slow the high powered Raptors offence down. This has been Boston modus operandi for a while now when playing a road  against explosive sides like the Raptors. Note: BOSTON is 13-4 UNDER  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 204.4 ppg scored.

The Celtics own the 5th ranked ppg allowed and and defensive efficiency, along with the a 19th ranked pace. Meanwhile, the Raptors own the 7th ranked defensive efficiency and must not be underestimated in their ability to be physical . 

This tilt has the makings of gruelling defensive post season style affair that stays below the offered Total. 

The Raptors are 0-10 UNDER with less than two days rest off a 10+ loss in which they had at least 30% of their points from threes with a combined average of 198 ppg scored.The Raptors are 7-32-1 UNDER  ( as a favorite with rest off a loss facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws with a combined average of 196.7 ppg scored. 

The Celtics are 0-8-1 UNDER as a road dog off a loss as a favorite in which they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers with a combined average of 188.2 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

My own projections make this offered Total slightly bloated as my number is closer to 229. I know its just a few points, but from system vs system matchup chart I use the numbers suggest   a combined score in the vicinity of 225 via a variable chart that is also in place, thus giving us added value to the under. Note: CHARLOTTE is 10-2 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season. ( Charlotte is ranked 20th in pace and 18th in ppg scored and can only compete by being more physical, which will effect overall scoring output) 

The Warriors are 0-11 UNDER  on the road with rest off a loss when they are off two games in which their opponent had double-digit steals with the average combined score clicking in at 182.1 ppg . 

The Hornets are 0-11 UNDER as a dog with less than two days rest off a loss in which they scored 10 or more points in the fourth than the first quarter with a average combined score of 195.1 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

The Toronto Raptors are playing in top tier form at the moment and have won 7 straight games, and will be ramped up to deliver payback to a Orlando team that beat them by a surprising 116-87 count back in December . The Magic ,  however, won't be easily intimidated  as they have also been playing decent ball winning 5 of their L/6. What Im betting on here today is for the Raptors despite of the early start to be wide awake and to come out here running and gunning and to pour down points in revenge mode against the Magic and for the young men from Central Florida to fire back in chase mode in a game I have pegged to go over the set total. TORONTO is 11-3 OVER revenging a loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 227.7 ppg scored.

The Raptors are 8-0 OVER after a game as a home favorite in which they had fewer than 10 turnovers with a combined average of 233 ppg scored which was the case last time out vs San Antonio.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (TORONTO) - after 5 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 39-11 OVER L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 224 ppg going on the score board.

Play OVER 

Over the last two games, Thunder star Westbrook is averaging 43.5 points, is shooting 56 percent from the floor, and has a combined 10 made 3-pointers and Im betting his team feeds off that energy tonight against the run and gun Kings in a game I have pegged to go over the set total. Note: Sacramento runs at the 3rd fastest pace in the league and owns the 27th ranked defence. Meanwhile, the Thunder own the 2nd ranked pace , and the leagues 3rd best offensive output . This total might seem high , but the the speed these teams play and the way they can pour down points Im betting the Total gets eclipsed. 

Oklahoma City beat the Kings on the road this season by a 132-111 count. Im expecting Thunder to explode for close to the same amount this time around and for the Kings to eclipse their previous out put. 

SACRAMENTO is 12-1 OVER  as a road underdog on the opening line of 6.5 to 12 points this season.  

The Thunder are 14-1-1 OVER off a win as a home favorite in which their points increased by at least 25 from the game before.The Kings are 23-5-2 OVER as a dog with rest after a game as a road dog in which out scoring their opponent in the paint by double digits.

Play OVER 

The Heat base all their successes and failures on their ability to play gritty shutdown defence, and tonight against the explosive Philadelphia 76ers Im expecting more of the same action. With Philadelphia expected to play without the injured Joel Embiid ( knee) Im betting the Sixers ability flow freely in offence will also be hindered. This above combination has a high probability of making for a lower scoring game than the linesmkaers are expecting and thus Im recommending a under wager here . 

The Heat rank third in the league in points per game allowed (105.7 ppg) and 27th in point scored ( 105.1 ppg). MIAMIs L/20  road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 203.1 ppg scored.

Brown is 10-1 UNDER  in home games after 2 consecutive division games as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. (This occurred just before the all star break)

The Heat are 0-19  L/19 UNDER as a road dog with rest off a win as a dog facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average score 189.9 ppg scored. Non of the 19 games saw more than 213 combined points scored.

The 76er are 0-14 UNDER  off a 10+ win in a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average of 193.8 ppg scored. None of the 14 games eclipsed this total.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more are 36-12 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MIAMI) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog against opponent off a win against a division rival are 35-11 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the  UNDER 

Miami enters this game ranked 3rd in ppg allowed in the NBA behind the 24th ranked pace and 27th ranked offense. Needless to say the Heat play a methodical brand of hoops that has resulted in some lower scoring affairs. Here on the road in their 5th straight road game, Im betting the pesky Heat  gear down once again in turn this into a war in the trenches vs their hosts the Mavericks  which will result in a lower scoring tilt than the lines-makers might expect.  Note: DALLAS is 23-11 UNDER  in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score of 201.7 ppg being scored.

The Heat are 0-23-2 UNDER as a dog with rest off a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with the average combined score of 189.2 ppg scored.

The Mavericks are 0-18 UNDER when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest off a game as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game with the average combined score of 182.2 ppg going on the board.

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DALLAS) - teams with a offensive  output (102  or more PPG) against a  team  that allows(102 or more PPG), after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 34-11 L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Despite  of an explosive offensive lineup, coach Brett Brown's attention is now on defense and preparing for the playoffs. QUOTE: "All I think about is, 'How do you have a defense that can play in the playoffs?'" he said."Right now, the pace of the game made the game a little bit difficult. I think our defense right now is a B- or C+. We're OK. We turn it up; we turn it down. It needs to be better than it is. It's certainly going to have to be better against the Celtics. But the notion of what's the end game, it's always about the playoffs." END QUOTE: Meanwhile, Boston will come in here without Kyrie Irving, which will curtail their offensive abilities, and will make them more focused on playing top tier basketball in an effort to slow their ferocious opponent. Considering the circumstances, and both teams situations, Im expecting a play off type game here that is alot more physical than many might expect and as a result a much lower scoring game than the linesmakers might also expect. 

BOSTON is 10-0 UNDER in road games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 206.9 ppg scored. PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) in home games after a combined score of 245 points or more with a combined average score of 198.3 ppg . ( They beat the Lakers 143-120 last time out, setting off Brown on his defensive speech above)

Play UNDER 

 With Kevin Love back from injury and Brandon Knight now in the Cleveland lineup theirs alot more offensive firepower on the floor for the Cavs and Im betting that will show here tonight against the Knicks on the scoreboard. The Knicks also have a little more fire power with DeAndre Jordan now here after being traded and the top tier play of the young Mitchell who is averaging 13 ppg via  76.2 % shooting conversion rate in just 20.3 minutes over his last three games. With the Knicks desperate to end a 16 game losing streak, Im betting they come out here spitting bullets, and Im betting Cleveland reciprocates with some offensive fire works of their own in a  game I have pegged to eclipse this number which isn't reflective of the current rosters. 

Fizdale is 23-9 OVER in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average of 213.1 ppg scored. Over is 6-2 in Cavaliers last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - off a home loss, a terrible team (25% or less) playing a team with a losing record are 48-16 OVER L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the OVER 

These teams both played last night and this will be the Hawks 4th game in 5 nights, and the Magics 4th game in 6 nights. Needless to say both sides should show some factors of fatigue here this evening, and will not be ready to run and gun. This Im betting results in a lower scoring game than the lines makers expect. 

ATLANTA is 19-6 UNDER L/25 revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite with the combined average score of 205 ppg scored. ( Orlando beat Atlanta on Jan 21 this season)

The Hawks are 0-16 UNDER L/16 with no rest off a loss as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game with a combined average of 192.1 ppg scored.The Magic are 0-11-1 L/12 UNDER L/12 as a favorite off a game as a dog facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws and it is before the All-Star break with a. combined average of 198.1 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

  Defense is the name of the game for Utah and tonight against a run and gun type team like the Spurs Im betting the put the hammer down  and play some conservative lockdown D. Over the last 15 games, the Jazz have recorded a solid 105.5 defensive rating -- ranking second among NBA teams. San Antonio beat Utah 110-97 earlier this Eason but UTAH is 27-15 UNDER  revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.3 ppg scored.

UTAH is 11-2 UNDER  in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 195.7 pig scored. The Jazz are 0-12 UNDER as a home favorite with more than one day of rest facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws with a combined average of 189.6 ppg scored with none of the combined scores coming even close to this point plateau. The Jazz are 0-11-1 UNDER L/12 as a favorite with more than one day of rest off a game as a favorite facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average score of 192.9 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 219.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - excellent free throw shooting team - making 80% or more of their free throws, second half of the season are 47-23 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UNDER 

Washington usually runs and guns with reckless abandon and tonight against a more conservative Cleveland team nothing will change, thus automatically pushing the Cavalier to up their pace and to run with the Wizards in a gem I have pegged to eclipse this beatable number. 

The Wizards are 16-0 OVER L/16 with less than two days rest off a road game in which they shot over 50% from the field which happened in a loss vs the Milwaukee last time out. The average combined score of those 16 tilts clicks in at 231.2 ppg. 

WASHINGTON is 14-5 OVER  in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season with a combined average of 239 ppg scored.

Brooks is 16-5 OVER versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average score of 231 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CLEVELAND) - after a game where they covered the spread, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 95-44 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

 NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, on Friday nights are 36-13 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Minnesota enters this game banged up with Jeff Teague  downgraded to doubtful Thursday vs Orlando ( Foot ) [PG] 02/05/2019 - Derrick Rose is "?" Thursday vs Orlando ( Ankle ) [PG] 01/16/2019 - Tyus Jones is out indefinitely ( Ankle ) [SF] 01/03/2019 - Robert Covington is out indefinitely ( Ankle ). Needless to say Im projecting that the Wolves will hav problems scoring tonight, and will be out to play a more conservative survival type of game plan.Orlando is 8th in ppg allowed in the league behind the 25th ranked pace 27th ranked offensive output and have the ability to slow the Wolves down, and limit their scoring output , especially with Teague out. Orlando is also  off a run and gun affair last time out vs Oklahoma City (122-132) , on the road and are now on tired legs, as the all star breaks nears and the trade deadline rumours surrounding the team keep them off balance and Im betting directly effects their overall energy levels tonight.

Under is 6-1 in Magic last 7 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 36-17 in Magic last 53 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 36-17 in Magic last 53 games following a straight up loss.

The Magic are 0-17-1 UNDER with rest off a 10+ loss as a road dog in which they had at least 5 turnovers more than their season-to-date average with a combined average of 182.7 ppg scored with no game eclipsing this offered totals number.

Play UNDER 

Im projecting that the banged up and short handed Suns will have problems putting points on the road here tonight against a well rested Jazz team. Im betting this disheartened  Suns team will play closer attention to defense and just try to get out of here without being to embarrassed by the final score.  That will result in a total combined score that stays on the low side of the number.  UTAH has gone UNDER  in 19 of their L/24 off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more  with he combined average score clicking in at 192.7 ppg. 

The Suns are 0-9 UNDER L/9 as a road 8+ dog off a loss as a home dog when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent. The Suns have only twice score more than 100 points in those 9 games with the average combined output clicking in at 94.6 ppg. 

The Jazz are 0-12 UNDER L/12 at home with rest off a home game when they are off two games in which their opponent had double-digit steals and it is before the All-Star break with the average combined score of 183 ppg going on the board. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PHOENIX) - horrible team - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 33-11 UNDER  L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

This is a division game and Im expecting some physical action here , which Im betting results in a lower scoring game than the linesmakers are estimating. My own line projects a combined score of closer to 229 which gives us close to a two possession under situation. These teams have a recent history of playing fairly low scoring games with 7 of the L/8 staying under the total with the last game here in Washington back in early January ending with 212 combined points going on the board.

ATLANTA is 26-9 UNDER  vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons with the combined average score of 207.7 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (ATLANTA) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-4 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Two of the top teams in the NBA go head to head here this afternoon in Boston as the Celtics host the Oklahoma City Thunder. Both teams can put points up on the board in bunches when need be, but today in a game that could easily played like a post season affair, Im expecting both these heavyweights to be a little more cautious and to be fairly physical. This type of abattle could easily see this combined score stay on the low side of the total /It must be noted that the Celtics own the 3rd best points per game allowed in the NBA,  and are ranked just 13th in offensive production behind the 20th ranked pace. Meanwhile Oklahoma City owns the 3rd best defensive efficiency despite of playing at a fast temp behind top tier guard play. As far as the guard play is concerned the Celtics are one of the few teams in the league that can slow Westbrook and company which will also  effect this combined score to the low side of the number. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-1 UNDER  as an underdog this season with a combined average of 213.4 ppg going on the board and is 10-2 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 219.9 ppg scored. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 13-4 UNDER  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.7 ppg going on the board.BOSTON in 18 games when playing against a team with a winning record this season have seen a combined average of 221.8 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 44-12 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BOSTON) - average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 24-6 L/5 seasons for a80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER 

Dallas played a low scoring sleeper vs Detroit last time out losing 93-89 and now with a couple odf days rest will primed to rev things up again behind the hot hand of super euro rookie Luka Doncic .That last game saw the Cavs dealing with trade departures to NYK, but now re-engerized knowing they will have guards Tim Hardaway Jr. ( 19.1 ppg), Courtney Lee and Trey Burke (20 ppg) in the lineup I look for a big time effort in this spot vs a Cleveland team off two straight wins and playing with new confidence.  

DALLAS in 40 games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season have seen a combined average of 217.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DALLAS) - after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a struggling  team (25% or less) are 33-14  OVER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Miami enters this game 4th in points per game allowed and 25th in pace and  have not scored more than 99 points in 7 of their L/14 games, with 10 of those games staying under the total. The Heat ranked 26h in ppg offensive production . Meanwhile, Indiana enters this game ranked 23rd in pace and 2nd in ppg allowed in the league also struggling to score of late, ranking 22nd in scoring in a clash that has the makings of physical low scoring affair. 

 NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (INDIANA) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team ARE 43-18 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 67-37 UNDER  L/5 season for a 65% conversion rate on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

Both these teams enter this game knowing that they have to play again tomorrow. Thus I expect both will be out to make sure they don't take part in a run and gun hoops affair. This is Atlantas usually an all out take not prisoners team will now play theur fifth straight road game so their running on empty anyway. Meanwhile, Utah is one of the NBAs top defensive teams, that is off a a rare nasty Defensive performance last time out allowing 132 points to Portland in a DD loss, so they will want to settle things down in a hurry and get their defensive posture back in gear.This is the perfect type of team to get their mojo back against. The L/2 games these teams played last year resulted in low scoring affairs, (with 192 and 194 combined pointed scored an another lower scoring game Im betting will be on tonights agenda. The L/4 meetings here in Salt Lake City have gone under. Note: 

UTAH is 13-3 UNDER  in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46%  or better - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with he average combined score of those games clicking in at 199.1 ppg. Atlanta took park in a high scoring affair last time out, in a 113-135 loss to Sacramento, in their /15 games in  road games after a combined score of 245 points or more they have seen a their combined scores substantially curtailed as is evident by a 213 point combined output average. 

Play UNDER 

It's interesting to note that despite of how fast paced the Oklahoma City Thunder have played this season ( 4th in pace), they are a team that ranks 3rd overall in defensive efficiency, and must not be underestimated in their stopping abilities. Meanwhile, Miami is ranked 6th in defensive efficiency in the NBA, behind the 25th ranked pace and own the 26th ranked offensive output at 105.3 ppg and have failed to eclipse the 99 point plateau in 5 of their L/8 games. The Heat compete because of their D, and Im betting they will be especially vigilante in this spot vs a side that comes at opponents behind the  top tier  guard play of Westbrook .  With that said, Im betting on Miamis scoring woes to continue, and for Oklahoma City to not be as fluent as usual vs a stingy side that has the ability to both slow the pace, and the Thunders aggressiveness in transition. this Im betting leads to a combined score that stays below this Total. 

Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 8-0 in Heat last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-0 UNDER in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season with a combined average of 214 ppg scored.    MIAMI is 11-2 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 204.4 ppg scored. 

Thunder have gone under 5 straight times as 10 point or less road favs with 2 days rest and  4-19 UNDER  2/1 rest situation vs non-conference opposition . The Heat have gone under in 5 straight games and are 0-9 UNDER L9 vs the Thunder  and 0-6 UNDER as non-conference Home dogs and  4-19 UNDER with a  conference game  on deck  if they prepare to play on back to back days. 

Play UNDER 

No body and I mean no body and can beat the Warriors on their own home floor in a run and gun duel and Im betting Philadelphia wont try that here. Yes, there will be plenty of points going on the board here , but the Sixers need their defence to stand tall to compete  and Im betting they get down and dirty  in attempt to somehow disrupt their opponents flow and downtown shooting circus. This will directly effect what the combined fine score will be. It must be noted that 76ers HC   Brown is 14-1 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70% or better) - 2nd half of the season as the coach of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average of 198.8 ppg scored and is 12-2 UNDER  12-2 UNDER  in road games versus very good shooting teams - making 48%  or more of their shots with a combined average of 206.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHILADELPHIA) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 44-19 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

The NY Knicks are currently employing a more conservative transition based style of D, which has resulted in 4 straight UNDERs, including 5 UNDERs in their L/6 trips to the hardwood and in their L/3 have not scored more than 99 points, while holding their L/3 opponents to 109, 106, 101 points in downward trajectory fashion.  NYK know they will face a revenge minded team tonight and  will continue Im betting play a conservative brand of basketball in order to take their opponents out of their flow. This Im betting will result in a much lower scoring tilt than the lines makers might expect. DALLAS is 31-19 UNDER  revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. (Dallas lost to the Knicks 118-106 back in Nov at home)

Dallas lost to Toronto 123-120  last time out, in a run and gun affair, and will now be on tired legs after that event. 

Under is 9-0 in Mavericks last 9 games following a straight up loss.Under is 8-1 in Mavericks last 9 vs. Eastern Conference.

Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

The Mavericks are 0-15 L/15 UNDER as a favorite off a home game with a combined average score of 203.5 ppg scored.The Knicks are 0-11 L/11 UNDER at home with rest off a loss facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range and it is before the All-Star break with the combined average score of 204.5 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (NEW YORK) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games are 791-615 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 56% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The Magic slowed things down considerably in their two most recent games vs  Houston and Washington, scoring 91 and 98 points respectively, in low scoring affairs that saw them allow 103 and 95 points on defence. Today against an explosive Thunder side, I expect more of the same conservative hoops, and prolonged scoring droughts that has become synonymous with Magic basketball. 

The Magic are 0-19-1 UNDER with rest after playing as a road dog facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws.  None of the games eclipsed this Total.

The Thunder are 0-6-1 UNDER  with less than two days rest off a home game in which they shot under 60% from the free throw line with none of the games eclipsing this total. 

 Donovan L/20 games  after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY with a combined average of 203.3 ppg being scored. 

Play UNDER

My own  line of 227 on this tilt  is 6 points off of what is being offered thus using  my projections Im betting we have value with an under wager here today between two top tier teams. I see this line as pandering to public perceptions and what is  obvious high scoring offences. Note: MILWAUKEEs L/45 games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 3 seasons has seen high scoring games, but the average combined score only clicks in at 226.2 ppg which is right about where a place that total.   it must be noted that the Bucks have gone under in 7 of their L/9 games, while playing a top tier brand of defence  behind the No1 ranked top rated D efficiency in the league. Yes, Oklahoma City has been shooting the lights out of late, but it must be noted that  HC Donovan is 21-8 UNDER  after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY with the average combined score of those tilts clicking in at 207.1 ppg. Oklahoma City also owns the 4th ranked defensive efficiency in the NBA . 

.The L/5 meetings have gone under the total. 

The Bucks are 0-16-1  UNDER as a dog with less than two days rest off a win in a home game in which they scored more than 50 points in the paint and it is before the All-Star break with a combined average score of 184.3 ppg scored with none of the games seeing more than 207 combined points scored. The Bucks are also 2-20-1 UNDER as a dog with less than two days rest off a win in a home game in which they scored more than 50 points in the paint with the average combined score of those games at 188.7 ppg with non going higher than 218 combined points. 

The Thunder are 3-26  UNDER as a favorite with more than one day of rest off a game as a favorite when they are off two wins as favorites with a combined average of 199 ppg scored and none of the game have seen more than 218 points go on the board.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-2 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average score of 218.1 ppg  scored and  is 8-1 UNDER after a game where they attempted 100 or more shots this season with a combined average of 212.9 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

With Joel Embidd and Jimmy Butler expected not to play tonight for the 76ers Im betting  their flow and offensive output will be great curtailed. Instead I expect HC Brown to implement a game plan that focuses on good defensive hoops, and fundamental ball control tactics.  That expected strategy I expect will lead to a lower scoring game than the linesmakers might expect between two top tier teams. Note:Brown is 40-22 UNDER in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots as the coach of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average of 207.4 ppg scored.

The Nuggets are 0-10 UNDER L/10 by more than 15 ppg  at home off a 10+ win in which they had at least 15 more shots than their opponent which was the case last night in their win vs Phoenix. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DENVER) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 41-18 L/22seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER 

Milwaukee is the NBAs  2nd most proficient offensive  team  averaging  117.6 points per game behind the 5th ranked pace. The Bucks do preach a defence first mentality, but tonight against a Charlotte team that has upped their offensive output of late, and looking fluid with their ball movement, Im expecting the Bucks to have to put points on the board in frequent fashion. This Im betting will lead to a fairly high scoring affair that eclipses this number. 

CHARLOTTE is 15-6 OVER  when the total is 220 to 230 this season.The Bucks are 11-0-1 OVER  as a 8+ favorite off a home game with a combined average score of 237.4 ppg scored.The Bucks are 10-0 OVER L/10 as a home favorite off a home game when they are off two wins as favorites with a combined average of 237.3 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

Without the injured Anthony Davis in the Pelicans lineup its obvious they are far less prolific offensively and instead are relying on a more conservative brand of basketball, as has been evident  in their last two games, where they saw fairly low scoring games, beating Memphis by a 105-85 count and then losing to 94-98 to Detroit. Here tonight against a explosive Oklahoma City team, Im betting on them playing a physical methodical brand of hoops that will base itself on paying attention to ball control in transition.  This Im betting will help keep this combined score on the low side of the Total. 

The Pelicans are 0-12 UNDER as a dog facing an opponent averaging less than 6 refereed turnovers per game with a combined average of 204.6 ppg scored, with the games going under by an average of more than 18 ppg. The Thunder are 0-6  L/6 UNDER off a home game when they shot better than 50 percent from the field their last two with a combined average of 196.5 ppg. 

HC Donovan in his L/52  as a favorite of 10 or more points as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY with a combined average of 211.2 ppg scored.

Play on the UNDER 

Washington is coming off its best defensive effort of the season, a 101-87 win over the Detroit Pistons on Monday. The Wizards held the Pistons to just 34 points in the opening half . That type of basketball will serve them well vs the leagues most explosive team the Golden State Warriors. I know the  Warriors defeated the visiting Wizards 144-122 on Oct. 24 in a wide open affair, but Washington has transitioned into a different team since then thanks in part to losing John Wall, and the often injured Dwight Howard. With that said, Im betting on the Wizards doing everything they can to slow the champs down, in an effort to compete and have an opportunity to pull off a unlikely upset. This combination of projected events will Im betting keep this score on the low side  of the Total. 

The Warriors are 1-14-2 UNDER with more than one day of rest off a road game when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road with a combined average of 206 ppg going on the board. None of the 17 tilts eclipsed this total. 

The Warriors are 0-10-1 UNDER  as a road favorite after their opponent shot under 60% from the free throw line with a combined average of 209.1 ppg scored. 

The Wizards are 0-15 UNDER by more than 17 ppg as a 8+ dog off a win as a favorite when the line is at least 12 points higher than their last game with the combined average score of 184.9 ppg scored.

GOLDEN STATE is 14-4 UNDER in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.8 ppg scored.

 GOLDEN STATE L/46  road games where the total is greater than or equal to 230 since 1996 have seen a combined average of 232.6 ppg scored. Kerr is 23-11 UNDER in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of GOLDEN STATE with a combined average of 221.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 43-10 UNDER  L/22  seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. None of the 53 games eclipsed this Total. 

Play on the UNDER 

Toronto is on tired legs after playing last night, and the Pacers are defence first team.  This combination Im betting leads to a lower scoring game than the lines-makers are projecting. 

INDIANA is 12-1 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season with a combined average of 207.2 ppg scored.INDIANA is 12-1 UNDER  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 196.9 ppg scored and s 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or kess turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 201.5 ppg scored.INDIANA is 12-2 UNDER  in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season.

The Pacers are 0-15 UNDER L/15 when the line is within three of pick off a win in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers with a combined average of 198.9 ppg scored. None of the games went over this total. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (INDIANA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 33-9 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Portland enters this game  on tired legs after a back and forth teeter totter affair last night in a game they won by a 109-104 score over the Utah Jazz  in Salt Lake City. Now exhausted they will be in the precarious position of having to deal with a explosive Oklahoma City squad. Needless to say I doubt the Blazers will want to run and gun here, and will be out looking to play a more conservative brand of transitional basketball instead which will see very few fast breaks which in turn will directly skew the total combined score to the low side. Note:  The Trailblazers are 0-9 L/9 UNDER off a game as a dog that had at least eight lead changes going under by more than 16 ppg with the average combined score clicking in at 202.3 ppg. Also PORTLAND is 10-1 UNDER off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 208 ppg scored.

In Portlands L/32 games when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons a combined average of 219.1 ppg were scored.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-10 UNDER  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 212.3 ppg scored. 

Under is 20-8 in Trail Blazers last 28 vs. Western Conference.Under is 20-8 in Trail Blazers last 28 vs. NBA Northwest.Under is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 road games.

Under is 4-1 in Thunder last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 38-16 in Thunder last 54 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.Under is 24-9-2 in the last 35 meetings in Oklahoma City.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (OKLAHOMA CITY/PORTLAND) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO's) are 34-14 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

My projected Totals estimate for this game, is closer to 215 thus according to those projections we have value with an under wager here. 

Utah is well rested and will be ready to play a free flowing Portland team physically here today in an effort to slow their offensive efficiency. The Jazz have held 4 of their L/6 opponents to 99 points or under, and are currently playing the kind of D we have come to expect from this hardcore blue collar group behind the 3rd ranked ppg allowed and 3rd best defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Portland owns the 18th rank pace, and when they are not allowed to flow and connect are a team that can falter, as was the case here in Utah when they visited here back in December scoring just 96 points which followed up scoring just 90 points against the Jazz at home a couple days earlier. Im betting on a repeat type of combined score here tonight in Salt Lake City.

UTAH is 14-6 UNDER  after playing a home game this season with a combined average of 205.7 ppg scored.UTAH is 15-5 UNDER  in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 season

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (UTAH/PORTLAND) - in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%), in January are 24-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 206.2 ppg scored.

Play on the UNDER 

The Clippers are currently in disarray, and are having problems at both ends of the court,  as is evident by 5 straight losses, and are now going to play todays games without forward Danilo Gallinari (back) and  guard Lou Williams (Hamstring). With the Clippers offence not clicking on all cylinders of late, and injuries slowing them, Im betting a more concerted defensive effort will be on tonights agenda vs a San Antonio Spurs side, that has gone under in 7 of their L/9 at home as favorites with the combined average score of 209.4 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Under is 5-0 in Clippers last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.Under is 7-1 in Clippers last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Clippers last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 road games.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games following a straight up loss.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Play UNDER 

This is a very high total, but for good reason, as these teams have a history of run and gun affairs with their L/9 games going over the set total with the most recent meeting seeing 256 combined points going on the board. The Warriors   are currently on a 6 game win streak and have not scored less than 119 points in any of the six victories on their winning run and are averaging 133.8 points over that stretch with the three pointers reigning down by the bucket  converting 18.6 treys per game during their current  blitz .  Im betting they come out running and gunning again, and for the Clippers to have no choice but to open up as well, in what will be another big time scoring fest. 

Warriors have gone over in 6 of their L/7 Dickson games  . Clips: 4-0 O/U in their  4th straight home game / 9-1 OVER L10 as div dogs  and have gone 6 of 7 times at home vs .600 or better opposition. LA CLIPPERS are 11-1 OVER  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 GOLDEN STATE/(LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 60-20 OVER L/23 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Chicago under their new interim head coach Jim Boylen originally wanted to implement a defence first system, but that plan looks like it has gone out the window as the Bulls are taking part in run and gun games on a consistent basis of late, with their L/5 going over the total, with a combined average of 231 ppg going on the board. Meanwhile, LAL since James went down with an injury has consistently struggled to score, and are averaging 99.2 ppg in tier L/5 to the hardwood. With the Lakers desperately trying to get their offence untracked, Im betting they will be more aggressive tonight vs a side that has allowed more than 123 ppg in their L/5 trips to the hardwood.The combination of the Bulls lack of D, and the Lakers need to up the ante on offence Im expecting a fairly high scoring affair that goes over the set total. 

NBA road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHICAGO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a below average defensive team (102  or PPG), after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 30-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 225.2 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER 

The Blazers played last night in the Mile High City in a hard fought affair, and will now be on tired legs which will effect their ability to run and gun with the one of the quickest pace teams in the NBA the Sacramento Kings. This Im betting will directly effect the total combined score of this tilt here in California's State Capital tonight. Note: The Kings have gone UNDER 4 straight with a 1/0 rest situation. 

SACRAMENTO is 12-2 UNDER versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 207.8 ppg scored.  

PORTLAND is 43-29 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213 ppg scored.

PORTLAND in their L/46 games when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 212.4 ppg scored. PORTLAND in their L/31 games when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 219 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO in their L/80 ages when the total is 220 to 229.5 have seen a combined average of 219.5 ppg scored.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SACRAMENTO) - in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%), in January games are 28-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 207.6 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

The Bulls are exhausted as they play their 3rd road game in 4 days, and must now deal with the thin air and altitude in Salt Lake City . The Bulls have had to deal with some explosive offensive teams of late, and have gotten out of a defence first system that has been implemented since Hoiberg was fired, and today on tired legs will have to revert back to being more conservative, which I'm betting results in a fairly low scoring affair. Note: Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CHICAGO) - after 4 or more consecutive overs against opponent after 1 or more consecutive unders  are 39-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

 The Houston Rockets had a huge 10 game winning streak snapped last time out vs the Milwaukee Bucks, but are still in top tier form, and hitting on all cylinders behind their star James Harden who is averaging 39.5 points per game, during a current 15-game span. Tonight I expect the Rockets to come out looking to bounce back and merciless fashion , and get revenge for a loss in their previous meeting with Cleveland  by a 117-108 on Nov. 24. There will be no mercy rule implemented by the Rockets vs a Cavs team that  ranks dead last in the league in efficiency, allowing 116.9 points per 100 possessions. The Cavs will have to muster up some offensive fireworks  of their own  vs the 26th ranked Defensive efficiency of the Rockets or be blown off the court in a game that I expect will surpass this number with ease. My projections estimate that the Rockets will score north of 116 here this evening, which  is a very good omen for our chances, as the Rockets are 18-0 OVER  when they score 112 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 239.1 ppg scored. 

The Cavaliers are 15-4 OVER on the road with rest off a loss in a road game facing an opponent taking more than 30 percent of their shots from beyond the arc with a combined average of 226.4 ppg scored.The Rockets are 26-6 OVER as a favorite with less than two days rest after a loss in which they led by double digits with a combined average of 222 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER 

Detroit enters this game playing horrendous defence, allowing an average of 113 ppg in their L/7 trips to the hardwood. Tonight against a run and gun opponent in Sacramento Im betting their going to get torched again, and will have no choice but to offer up some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown off the court. This Im betting leads to a high scoring affair that eclipses this number. 

Note: The Kings have allowed an average of 116 ppg against this season ranking them 28th in the league, and scored an average of 115 ppg ranking 5th in the league with 13 of their 21 home games going over the set total. The Kings are also 2nd in pace in the league. 

The Pistons are 16-0-2 OVER L18 as a dog off a game as a dog facing an opponent making less than 16 free throws per game. The Kings are 19-4 OU L/23 facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game and it is before the All-Star break with a combined average of 237.7 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DETROIT) - after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half 31-8 OVER L/22 seasons for a 80% conversion rate with a combined average of 236.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

Play OVER 

The Celtics exploded for 135 points last night in a win vs the Indiana Pacers, and no I expect a reversion to the norm from a scoring output perspective , as they will be on tired legs after running gunning last night. I expect the Celtics to revert back to their usual conservative transitory system which has resulted in the 3rd best points per game defence in the league .Im also betting they stand tall, behind a fairly methodical 19th ranked pace. Meanwhile, Miami a defence first team with aggressive physical traits, owns the 6th best defensive  points  per game ranking behind a 22nd ranked pace and 25th ranked offense and should easily help contribute to a methodical clock burning snooze fest.  

MIAMI is 13-4 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons has seen a combine average of 203.9 ppg scored.

The Heat are 0-11 UNDER L/11 at home when the line is within 3 of pick with rest after they had fewer than 10 turnovers with a combined average of 178.2 ppg scored with no game exceeding 195 points. The Celtics are 0-13 UNDER  as a road favorite off a 10+ win in a home game facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with the combined average score clicking in at 185.4 ppg with no game exceeding 203 points. 

Play UNDER 

Brooklyn a team that ranks in the bottom half of the league in ppg scored and pace at 22nd,    enters this game on tired legs and will be in no shape to run and gun here tonight even though they go against a Atlanta team with the fastest pace and worst ppg allowed in the league. Note: BROOKLYN in 12 games  when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season have seen a combined average of 217.4 ppg scored. Because of the Nets fatigue factor Im betting this total is a on the high side and we have value with an under wager here.

The Hawks are 0-17 UNDER L/17 as a road 8+ dog with no rest after they had less than 15% of their points from free throws with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 185.9 ppg with the highest scoring game seeing 217 points go on the board.

The Nets are 0-8 UNDER L/8 as a 8+ favorite with rest off a 10+ loss when they won 2 straight vs current opponent with the average combined score of those games clicking in at 174 ppg with all the games seeing at least one side stay under the 99 point output plateau. 

ATLANTA is 13-2 UNDER in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 203.2 ppg scored.

Under is 6-0 in Hawks last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.Under is 10-2 in Hawks last 12 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 7-3 in Hawks last 10 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 36-16 in Hawks last 52 games following a ATS win.Under is 13-6 in Hawks last 19 Wednesday games.

Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Brooklyn.Under is 10-2-1 in the last 13 meetings.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (ATLANTA) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-4 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 These teams are both trending upward on a points per game chart that I am currently using. Everything points to this being a higher scoring affairs than the lines makers  are anticipating.  Yes, they are lower paced teams, but their offensive efficiency and point conversion rates are above normal.  Im projecting Brooklyn scores 105 + points while Bostons score 114 + points. BROOKLYN is 19-3 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 237.5 ppg scored. BOSTON is 16-0 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 231.6 ppg scored.

Brooklyns L/5 games has seen a combined average of 230.6 ppg scored and in division games has seem a combined average of 224.6 ppg scored. Meanwhile, Boston in their L/5 games has seen a combined average  222 ppg scored and on the season allowed an average of 105+ ppg at home and in division tits have seen a combined average of 219.8 ppg scored.

BOSTON is 13-4 OVER versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season with a combined average of 223.6 ppg scored. BOSTON is 20-7 OVER  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 221.9 ppg scored. 

BROOKLYN is 18-7 OVER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 225.8 ppg scored in those tilts.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (BROOKLYN) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 36-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Denver despite of slightly below average points output owns the 7th ranked offensive effecincy in the league, despite of being a slow paced squad and are capable of lighting opponents up in a hurry with shabby defences like the Hornets as is evident by a 112.3 ppg  offensive output at home. Meanwhile, the Hornets, are ranked in the bottom 15 teams in the NBA in defence, and allowing 115.1 ppg on the road this season, but ranked 9th overall in offensive output and  10th in efficiency and have scored 125 or more points in 3 of their L/5 games, and are 113.1 ppg on the road this season.

My projections estimate that Charlotte will put at least 106 points on the board, while Denver will score 114 points. Note: DENVER is 14-2 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 231.3 ppg scored.CHARLOTTE is 15-4 OVER  when they allow 112 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 233.6 ppg scored.

DENVER is 27-10 OVER versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of  227.4 ppg scored.DENVER is 20-8 OVER after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 221.8 ppg scored.  

 Hornets are 10-0 OVER L/10 off a game as a favorite in which they scored fewer than 10 fast break points and it is before the All-Star break with the average combined score clicking in at 236.3 ppg. The Nuggets are 10-0 OVER L/10 off a game as a favorite facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average of 231.2 ppg scored.

NBA  Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHARLOTTE) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 35-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

Cleveland enters this game ranked 28thin in scoring in the NBA behind a slow down system that ranks 29th in pace  having scored 94 points or less in 6 of their L/8 games overall and Im betting will have problems breaching that plateau again vs a  physical Jazz defence that is ranked 7th in ppg allowed and 5th in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, on the flip side, Utah has averaged only 105 ppg on the road this season and rank 21st in the league in points ouptut in the league, and 22nd in offensive efficiency behind a average pace ranked 14th overall. Also previous to going over in their L/2 trips to the hardwood they had gone under 8 straight times in grinding fashion. Note: The Jazz are 0-18 UNDER L/18 as a favorite off a road game when the line is at least 10 points lower than their last game and it is before the All-Star break with no combined score clicking in above 201 ppg, with the average combined score registering at 185.1 ppg. Bottom line : The Jazz will happily grind away on a Cavs team with very little fire power, in a game that I expect will see the combined score stay on the low side of the total. 

The Cavaliers are 0-13 UNDER as a dog with less than two days rest after a game as a home dog in which rebounding less than 20% of their own misses with the average combined score coming in at 198.4 ppg. The Cavaliers are 0-8 OU L/8 as a 8+ dog off a 10+ loss when they are off two games in which more than 65 percent of their field goals were assisted and it is before the All-Star break with a combined average of 201.1 ppg scored with non of the tilts exceeding this posted total. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CLEVELAND) - a offense that scores (+102 PPG) against a sub par defensive team (102 or more PPG), after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games are 90-46 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play under 

 Minnesota is on a 8 game OVER  streak,  and  Boston has gone over 6 straight times and the linesmakers know this, so they have bumped this number up , and have not  based this Total on the current matchup but on the streak itself, which according to my projections gives us value with an under wager on this offered total. 

Teams that have gone over in at eight or more straight games are 75-91-1 UNDER since the 2013/14 season.

NBA team (BOSTON) - after 5 or more consecutive overs, good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game are 224-142 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

Sacramento loves to run and gun with wreck-less abandon, but Portland knowing this will not allow them to flow, and will look to slow this game down. Blazers road games have seen a combined average of 222.1 ppg scored, but have recently played much better defensively which has resulted in 4 straight unders overall. None of the 4 most recent meetings in this series dating back to last season have seen more than 218 combined points scored and Im betting on this this one staying under the total as well. 

The Trailblazers have gone under 12 straight times as a road favorite with rest after a game in which they shot 50% or better from beyond the arc with the average combined score clicking in at 185.5 ppg with non of the 12 games seeing more than 210 ppg.

PORTLAND is 18-8 UNDER vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 201.1 ppg.PORTLAND is 27-12 UNDER  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 207.5 ppg scored. PORTLAND in their L/26 games when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over dating back to last season have seen a combined average score of 219.2 ppg going on the board. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SACRAMENTO) - in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%), in January games are 24-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 206.6 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

My head to head systems and performance charts are indicating a low scoring affair here this afternoon. When these teams met on Nov 7 they combined for 199 points in a 103-96 Pistons win. Im betting on a similar output here that remains on the low side of the number. 

 DETROIT is 33-16 L/49 UNDER  after allowing 120 points with a combined average of 196.7 ppg scored.

Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DETROIT)  - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are124-76 UNDER L/22 seasons for a long term 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Wizards enter this game on tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 4 nights , which Im betting translates into them playing at a slightly less elevated tempo , which will effect the total projected score to be much lower than the linesmakers expect. With the Wizards John Wall still out the  flow of the home side  will also being effected, as has been the case of late  as the Wizards have been unable to produce more than 95 points 3 straight games. I know the Hornets will come at the wounded Wizards hard, but the visitors have not been very good on the road this season going just 4-10 overall away from home, and have proven they are less than capable of controlling pace in most of their games on the road. 

The Wizards are 0-16 UNDER  off a home game when they are off two games in which they held their opponent to 10+ less than they usually allow and it is before the All-Star break with no combined  score exceeding 219 point plateau with the average combined score clicking in at 192.6 ppg. 

Under is 4-0 in Wizards last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.

WASHINGTON is 13-4 UNDER in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 203.9 ppg scored.

Play UNDER

Indiana really gets physical against run and gun uptempo teams like the Detroit Pistons especially at home. Note:I NDIANA is 11-1 UNDER in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average 199.9 ppg scored. 

INDIANA is 8-0 UNDER in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season which happened last time out with a combined average of 200.1 ppg scored.NDIANA is 15-3 UNDER (+11.7 Units) after a combined score of 225 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 203.6 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (INDIANA) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent off a home win are 36-12 UNDER L/5 for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Both these teams played back forth exhausting games on Christmas day and could easily feel the effects of that this Thursday in a tilt that I have pegged to stay under the set total. Houston ranks 28th in pace while Boston ranks 18th in pace and 3rd overall in defensive efficiency in the league. 

Under is 19-7 in Celtics last 26 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Under is 40-19-1 in Rockets last 60 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

D'Antoni is 36-10 UNDER L/36  when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of HOUSTON with a combined average of 212.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

Long term these two franchises have a history of playing low scoring games with 15 of the L/19 staying under the total. 

Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Houston.

HOUSTON is 19-6 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 208.8 ppg scored.HOUSTON is 16-5 UNDER after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206 ppg. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (BOSTON) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 55-15 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 207.2 ppg.

Play the UNDER

 Both visiting Denver  Nuggets and their hosts the San Antonio Spurs  return from a five-day Christmas break for a contest at the AT&T Center in San Antonio. Both are slower paced teams but both are obviously on fresh legs and Im betting they  will be energized and ready run and gun here tonight just like of it were the beginning of the season. 

Over is 6-0 in Spurs last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Over is 20-8 in Spurs last 28 vs. NBA Northwest.Over is 12-5-1 in Nuggets last 18 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. These teams have gone over in their 2 most recent meetings last season, with a combined average of 231 ppg scored.

Note: Denver looked defensively deficient last time out ,  as they suffered a  132-111 setback at the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday. Note: DENVER is 21-7 OVER  in road games after allowing 115 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 222.3 ppg scored and 15-5 OVER  in road games after allowing 120 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 223.4 ppg going on the board.

Spurs home games have seen a combined average of 221.1 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread, playing with 3 or more days rest are 33-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Lakers held the Grizzlies to 88 in a 23-point win Dec. 8 in Memphis. Im betting the Lakers keep  a Memphis team that has failed to score more than 99 points in 8 straight and 10 of their L/11  to under the century mark again . Meanwhile, the Grizzlies behind the 30th ranked pace, and the 2nd best ppg allowed average to fight back in a methodical way, in effort to end a current cycle of 5 straight losses. This Im betting will see a muted combined score that remains on the low side of the total. 

Walton is 11-1 UNDER  in home games after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games as the coach of LA LAKERS with a combined average of 206.5 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (LA LAKERS) - an excellent offensive team (102 or more  PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 or more  PPG), after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight game are 47-19 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Dallas lost a hard fought 120-116 tilt   at Golden State Saturday night. That was the Mavericks 5th straight loss and their 4th straight game going over the total, with a combined average of 239.8 ppg scored . Now in desperation mode, and still reved up after that fairly fast paced affair, Im betting this well conditioned group behind Slovenia rookie Doncic come out running and gunning. Meanwhile, Portland enters the Mavericks game coming off its most one-sided home loss in 14 years, a 120-90 beatdown at the hands  of Utah Jazz on Friday and now rank 18th in defensive efficiency. The threes were raining down on the Blazers, and Im betting in their current form , nothing will change defensively. I do however, expect a much better bounce back offensive effort and a spirited affair that goes over the set total. 

 DALLAS is 21-8 OVER in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game with a combined average of 219.4 ppg scored.DALLAS is 11-2 OVER versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 225.7 ppg. 

NBA road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DALLAS) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team 33-9 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

The Bucks are off exerting alot of effort in last nights start to finish win vs Boston.  They were a team on a mission from the outset as they wanted badly to break the 6 game losing streak in Boston and get some revenge for last years play off series loss. Now in a bit of emotional letdown state Im betting they wont have the same energy as last night as they are now also on tired legs. What Im betting on here is for Miami in their usual physical fashion to control the pace of this game on their own home court , as they will have no choice but  to be diligent defensively against one of the leagues most explosive teams. Miami owns the 24th ranked offense in the league and the 9th best D, and they run at a 99 pace which ranks in the bottom 3rd of the league at 20. 

MIAMI is 11-0 UNDER  off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 198.9 ppg scored. Those two wins were also defensive gems not allowing Houston or New Orleans to breach the 99 point plateau. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MILWAUKEE) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 49-15 UNDER  L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

The Suns enter this game on a 4 game win streak, thanks to a much better brand of transitional basketball and overall defensive play, allowing two of the 4 opponents to 99 or less points. Now against a  Washington side, that they are not built to  run in gun with ranking 26th in the league in offence Im betting they will continue their diligent play and try to slow this game down behind their 17th ranked overall pace. Note: PHOENIX is 15-4 UNDER L/19  versus good passing teams, averaging 23  or more assists/game this season with a combined average of 212.4 ppg scored.

WASHINGTON is 10-1 UNDER  vs. struggling  rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 5+/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined score of 209.1 ppg scored. 

NBARoad teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHOENIX) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-3 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Golden State enters this game doing what they do best and that is put points up on the board in bunches, as is evident by their 3rd overall ppg output of 115.9 ppg  and 1st overall offensive efficiency.  You have to be able to score to compete with the Warriors, and they will actually force their opponent to playing a more wide open style of basketball under most circumstances. With that said, Im betting the defensive minded Jazz will be forced to ratchet up the pace here tonight and convert more consistently vs the Warriors 15th ranked D, as was the case when they lost to the Warriors in a hard fought 124-123 effort back on Oct 19 of this season here in Utah. Im bettong on a similar type  average combined offensive output in tonight Salt Lake City rematch.  

Note: My projections estimate both sides will score 109 or more points in this tilt. UTAH is 12-0 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 238.3 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 14-1 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 242 ppg scored. 

UTAH is 14-4 OVER after playing a road game this season with a combined average of 222.1 ppg going on the board. 

UTAH is 7-0 OVER  in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game this season with a combined average of 226.3 pig scored.GOLDEN STATE in  their L/25 road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 228.7 ppg go on the scoreboard. 

Play OVER 

Memphis has not breached the 99 point plateau in 5 straight games and 7 of their L/8 overall and are ranked 28th in the league in offensive output averaging 102.5 ppg behind the 30th ranked pace. The Grizzlies saving grace is their defence that is ranked 2nd in points per game allowed ( 102.1 ppg). Needless to say the Grizzlies are methodical in their approach to their games, and will be even more so, here this evening vs a explosive Golden State Warriors team, that when pushed can  out run and gun anybody in this league, but to this point in the season, have preferred a more systematic approach and rank just 11th in pace. Tonight Im betting the Grizzlies do everything in their power to make this a ugly grinding affair, and for this to result in a a lack of flow which results in a total score that remains on the low side of the offered Total. 

Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games are 31-7 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with  combined average 191.6 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

The Clippers have struggled to score consistently of late and have scored 99 points or less in 4 of their L/5 games. Im betting their offensive woes will continue tonight vs a Thunder team  that ranks 5th in defensive efficiency.  This will translate in a much lower scoring tilt than the lines makers estimate.OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-1 UNDER  versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 203.2 pig scored.OKLAHOMA CITY is 35-19 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 212.7 ppg and is 54-31 UNDER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts over the last 3 season s with a combined average of 211.9 ppg. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 47-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

Milwaukee ranks first in the NBA in offensive output ( 118.1 ppg) and the 4th fastest pace and a  defence, that ranks 11th in the league allowing 109.2 ppg. Meanwhile, Cleveland their opponents tonight rank 30th in the league in defensive efficiency (115.8 ppg) and are susceptible to being lit up like a Christmas tree vs a explosive offensive team like the Bucks. With that said, I expect the Milwaukee to do what they do best and that is run and gun, and for the Cavaliers to do what they do best,  and that is chase the scoreboard from a negative output perspective. This Im betting results in a higher scoring game than the lines-makers expect. 

MILWAUKEE is 20-9 OVER  when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - off a upset loss as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 30-7 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors wit a combined average of 227 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER 

The Spurs are currently up trending and have won 3 straight, and are showing increased  defensive efforts and efficiency especially In their L/2 games, holding the Suns to 86 points the Jazz to 97 points. Im betting they will continue to play a tougher brand of defense first basketball here tonight against a Clippers team that despite of playing good hoops this season, have scored 99 points or less in 3 of their L/4 outings. Considering both sides current form I expect a lower scoring game than the lines makers are estimating. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (/SPURS /LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO's) are 40-14 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 32-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 80%conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Slow starts on offence have been common of late as Utah in back-to-back losses to San Antonio and Oklahoma City averaged just 41.0 first-half points in the two games. Im betting the Jazz who ranked 24th on offence ( 107.2 ppg) have problems consistently putting points on the board tonight again vs a Miami side that currently playing some of their best defence of the season allowing 101.6 ppg in their L/6 overall while holding 3 of those opponents to 100 points or less. ( 5 of those 6 games failed to eclipse the total) The Heat rank 9th in the league defensive efficiency, and own the leagues 22nd ranked offence. These team played a tight 102-100 game earlier this season, and another similar style physical game looks to be tonights agenda. 

MIAMI is 13-2 UNDER versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of just 193 ppg scored. Miami  in their L/23 games  as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 207 ppg go on the board.

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) -   scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after a close loss by 3 points or less are 75-39 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

We have a high total here but it's completely justified. The last time these teams played the Thunder won 122-116 at  home on Nov.5th this season, and according to the way both teams systems and players matchup another high scoring affair will be on tonights bayou agenda.This tilt  for the Pelicans against Oklahoma City will be New Orleans' eighth game in 15 days. The Pelicans have not had more than one day between games since Nov. 8- and are now on tied legs and will be in no way ready to play D, and with that said, I am betting the tThunder will light them up offensively, but thanks to a group of talented shooters averaging 49% FG at home ,  the the Birds will keep up in what will be a high scoring game according to my projections. Note: New Orleans home games have seen a combined average of 237.4 ppg scored. 

 . Note: NEW ORLEANS I in 20 games  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season have seen a combined average 241 ppg go on the board. My estimates are higher than the +105 point plateau that this trend uses, giving us alot of value with a over wager here as associated with those outputs.

Play OVER 

HC Popovich of the Spurs , has been trying to make sure there has been a balance in the way his team is playing at both ends of the court. He has wanted to see an uptempo attack and concerted defensive effort in transition. Its been a work in progress, but last time out against Utah the Spurs finally played a complete game , winning as underdogs and holding their opponent to just 97 points. That was the Spurs second straight win as pups. With that success, and confidence on their sides, I once again expect for a strong defensive effort here vs a Suns team that has been held under 99 points in 6 of their L/7 overall, thanks in part to top scorer Devon Booker being out.  With that said, Im betting  the combined score here does not eclipse this number.

SAN ANTONIO is 14-2 UNDER off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog with a combined average of 178.6 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 31-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PHOENIX) - horrible team - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 30-9 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER