Based on my projections this game has value on a under wager. (Late Steam)

NBA. Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, vs. division opponents are 56-28 under L/24 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHARLOTTE) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team aren30-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Both these sides style of play obviously leans towards a high scoring affair, but the number according to my projections is just to high, and should be closer to 239 which gives us some obvious value to the under with an almost 2 possession divergence. 

The Nets have not gone over the total in 12 straight games  with rest coming off a road win where they had 30+ assists.Under is 8-2 in Nets last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Washington.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better) against an average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%), hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or kore  of their shots are 30-6 UNDER  L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

My projections give us value with an under wager here in this matchup which says this Total should be closer to 219 which makes this a full ;possession divergence. 

HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER  after playing a home game this season.

HOUSTON is 11-3 UNDER  versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season with a combined average of 216.2 ppg going on the board. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (NEW ORLEANS) - vs. division opponents, off 2 or more consecutive home wins are 38-14 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 There is now way Oklahoma City can compete in a run and gun affair and that is why Im betting they do everything with their power to slow this game down, which Im betting results in a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-12 UNDER  when the total is 220 to 232.5  over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.7 ppg scored. 

The Thunder are 0-12 UNDER L/12 as a dog after they had 5 or fewer offensive boards last game , with non of the tilts going over this offered number. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (BROOKLYN) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog are 23-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Both sides are unrested and Im expecting a slower more deliberate game than many might expect. 

The Warriors have seen the L/6 meetings vs the Suns stay under the set total and have gone under in 8 of their L/9 as  division  road dogs  and have also seen  6 of their L/7 away games  stay under vs unrested foes . Mean while, the Suns have gone under 9 straight times as division  chalk including   5 straight vs  unrested division  opposition. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 220.5 (PHOENIX) - after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 90-51 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Boston really shot the lights out last time out in a 141-103 win vs the Cleveland Cavaliers and now a natural offensive regression is in the cards.  This in itself will help contribute to this tilts combined score staying on the low side of the total. Note:  BOSTON is 29-11 UNDER after a huge blowout win by 30 or more since 1996 with a combined 191.3 ppg scored. 

HC Donovan of the Bulls is 95-55 UNDER  as an underdog in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average lof 215.7 ppg scored. 


NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BOSTON) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 29-8 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

The pace and matchup comparisons suggest a score that stays on the low side of the number as was the case last night in a 107-104 Charlotte win. 

 NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (ORLANDO) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, with a losing record are 25-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHARLOTTE) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 30-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Orlando enters this game with the 22nd ranked pace, 28th in the league in ppg scored and have seen 9 of their L/12 games fail to eclipse the total. Meanwhile, Charlotte ranks 24th in ppg offence, and 10th in ppg allowed D, behind the 18th ranked pace. Both sides , play at a speed and style that points towards a combined score that stays below thsi offered number.

ORLANDO is 15-4 UNDER  in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 204.8 ppg scored.   

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHARLOTTE) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 33-10 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

Oklahoma City is ranked 27th in ppg offense to this point in the season, and are now dealing with the fact they are not a offensive juggernaut and must learn to slow down teams in transition, which Im sure is the game plan tonight. This Im betting results in a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers have projected.  OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-11 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons

OKLAHOMA CITY is 90-62 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70%or better  with a combined average of 204.7 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - a very good team (7  or more PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG differential) are 45-19 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 70% for conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 36-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

After a hard fought win vs Milwaukee last time out by the Lakers, Im betting on a bit of an emotional letdown situation here vs Chicago tonight, which will see the Lakers start slower than usual, and that will in turn effect the early flow of this game and subsequently the combined score that will end  up to be lower than the number expected   by the linesmakers. LA LAKERS are 10-1 UNDER   versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots over the last 3 seasons. LA LAKERS are 7-0 UNDER   in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season. LA LAKERS are 7-0 UNDER  in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season.   Vogel is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game as the coach of LA LAKERS with a combined average of 210.6 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

The Nets  are having some defensive issues and I expect them to ficus on   correcting some of their   issues Saturday night when they host the shorthanded Miami Heat. The Heat will be effected by a lack of cohesiveness because of their lack of a full compliment of players, This Im betting effect the score of this tilt to the low side of the number. Spoelstra is 135-103 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of MIAMI with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 201.1 ppg . 

NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BROOKLYN) - after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 46-17 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Mavs enter this game ranked 6th in ppg allowed defence, and 22nd in offensive output, behind the 22nd ranked pace. Needless to say they are playing a deliberate conservative  style of hoops, that has coincidently resulted in unders cashing for bettors in 9 of their L/12 trips to the hardwood, including going Under is 10-4 in Mavericks last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  Meanwhile, San Antonio is ranked. middle of the pack, ranking 17th in offensive output and 11th in defensive rating . Note:Defensive Rating (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 possessions. The Spurs have also been in a under groove going 5-1 to the low side of the number L/6 trips to the court. Considering both teams current form, Ill bet and recommend we take a lower scoring stance here.Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Play UNDER

 HC Nurse said his team's defense was at its worst of the season "times three" in the game and Im betting things dont get better here tonight in a game that is more wide open than the pundits might expect. 

 MIAMI is 19-8 OVER  when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.5 ppg scored. 

Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

 Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 overall.

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (MIAMI) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, with a losing record are 43-15 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Analysis to follow. Thank you for your patience.


NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against opponent after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 34-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

 teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better against opponent after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 32-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.

Minnesota and Orlando both are aiming to pull out of their funks Wednesday night in their matchup at the Target Center in Minneapolis and Im betting they come out here with all guns blazing in an attempt to get back into the win column. This Im betting results in a combined score that goes over the total.  

Over is 6-0 in Magic last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Over is 8-1-1 in Magic last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Over is 7-1-1 in Magic last 9 games as a road favorite.

The Timberwolves are 14-0 OVER L/14 at home after they had 3 or fewer double digit scorers last game with every game in the subset eclipsing this total with a combined average of 234.4 ppg scored. 

Play OVER

HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER  against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.5 ppg scored and enter this game on a current 8 game streak of unders. Rinse and repeat here despite of a partially revamped new lineup. 


NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 51-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 31-11 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Yes, both these sides can light it up , but according to my Totals projection , the number should be closer to 234 , so with a full possession plus avaialble Im recommedning we take an under stance on a public line. 

Under is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 games as a favorite.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 110 points or more 4 straight games are 70-32 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - after scoring 110 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 43-19 UNDER  L/24 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The Pacers are are at the tail end of a 4 game west coast road trip, and will be prepared to pace themselves here vs a LA Clippers side that is well aware of their oppositions prowess. Im betting  on a offensive regression to the norm for the Clippers after running and gunning for 138 points last time out vs the Kings in a lopsided win. 

INDIANA is 48-23 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or kore  of their shots over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 212.1 ppg scored. 

The Pacers are 0-10 UNDER L/10 as a dog after their opponent shot under 40% from the field with a combined average of 206.3 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (INDIANA/LA CLIPPERS) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout win by 20 points or more are 57-15 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

 The Pelicans for the most part have payed attention to their defense and rank 7th in the league in ppg allowed while operating a pace that ranks 26th in the NBA. Here on the road Im betting on more disciplined hoops vs a Sacramento Kings group that plays has  shown very little discipline of late .Also  is the case with Van Gundy coached sides a consistent persistence on not losing control of the speed of game will continue to be implemented . This Im betting leads to a lower scoring game than the pundits might expect. 

Under is 5-2 in Pelicans last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Under is 5-1 in Pelicans last 6 road games.

Play UNDER

The last 3 meetings in this series here in the Mile High City have been fairly low scoring affakirs and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here in a game that will fail to eclipse the total according to my projections. 

Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 overall. Under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in Denver.

UTAH is 35-21 UNDER  when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 season with a combined average of 213.6 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (UTAH) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 110 points or more 3 straight games are 79-41 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - vs. division opponents, playing with 2 days rest are 82-45 L/24 seasons for a  66% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

The L/3 meetings in this series have seen non of the game eclipse this total and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here again tonight. LA CLIPPERS are 12-2 UNDER in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 216.5 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SACRAMENTO) - after allowing 130 points or more against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games are 52-25 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Golden State games have been according to my projections seeing added digits to the totals from the linesmakers  , which is showing value to the under. Thanks to those faulty numbers offered by the books we have seen 4 straight Warriors games go under the total. Warriors speedy pace, has influenced the linesmkaers, as has the presence  of their super star Curry. However, their off, because of a variation of reasons, and continue to hold value for under bettors.  


GOLDEN STATE is 27-11 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.4 ppg. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 230 (DENVER) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 50-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 27-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Both these sides have been playing top tier hoops of late,  with San Antonio winning 3 of their L/4 and the Thunder 4 of their L/5.  The Spurs did lose their last game, behind some lackluster shooting, but that has not been the norm for this side, and  Im betting on a offensive bounce back performance tonight. Note: The Spurs are 11-0 OVER as a favorite with rest off a road loss with the average combined ppg clicking in at 222.1 ppg.  SAN ANTONIO is 13-1 OVER  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 240.7 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Both these teams 

Indiana has played some fairly high scoring tilts this season, but their calling card remains their D, and here on the road behind a pace that ranks 20th in the league Im betting we will see them paying attention in transition. Meanwhile,  Sacramento was clobbered last time out, by Portland by a 125-99 count. In the recent past ,  the Under is 13-6 in Kings last 19 games following a double-digit loss at home as they tighten things up and focus more on basics. Everything points to a tilt that sees a combined score that remains on the low side of the total.

Under is 8-3 in Pacers last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (INDIANA) - average free throw shooting team (72-76%) against a poor free throw shooting team (69-72%), good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (14.5  or less TO's) are 24-4 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team (SACRAMENTO) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game are 54-23 UNDER L/5 seasons for a  70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Trailblazers  who rank 7th in pace 4th in offence and 25th in ppg games allowed on D, are off a win last time out on the road as a favorite which sets up a strong trend that has seen them go over 10 straight times by an average of more than 22 ppg,  with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at at a massive 249.9 ppg. Meanwhile, Toronto now playing in back to back games are on tired legs, and may have issues stopping the run and gun Blazers and will have to open up with some offensive fireworks of their own in what Im betting will be a fairly high scoring affair that eclipses this total. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PORTLAND) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 44-16 OVER L/24 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

This total is partly based on the Raptors dismal 3 point defence, but Im betting it will get better as the season progresses, including tonight. The Raptors are playing better lately overall, and have the veterans and coaching needed to know how to handle a Seth Curry lead offence. With that said, Im betting on the Raptors physicality to be in top gear and for the flow of this game to be slower than the number might suggest. Advantage under.

TORONTO is 16-6 UNDER  in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 212 ppg scored. TORONTO is 31-19 UNDER  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.5 ppg scored.

GOLDEN STATE is 26-11 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.5 ppg scored.


NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a blowout win by 20 points or more are 25-4 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average combined total of 220.5 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (TORONTO) - after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better against opponent after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 31-6 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 221.4 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

The Spurs are playing top tier hoops at the moment, and are off two consecutive upset victories. Note: SAN ANTONIO is 13-3  L/16 UNDER  off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog with the average combined score of 185.3 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 30-14 UNDER  after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 219.6 ppg going on the board. 

The Spurs are 0-14-2 UNDER L/16  as a road favorite with rest after a win in which they never trailed with a combined average of 191.5 ppg scored with non of the games in the subset eclipising this total. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more are 40-13 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA  team (MINNESOTA) - off 2 consecutive losses against division rivals against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog are 37-12 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER 

Utahs inconsistent play early on in the season continued last time out, as they lost as -6.5 road favs at NYK last time out. It must be noted   UTAH is 28-9 UNDER off a double digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more with a combined average of 191.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. It makes sense as teams who are in this role, look to get back to basics and play a more conservative style of getting back to basics basketball. Few teams try to run and gun with the Bucks, and Im betting the Jazz instead will try to slow things down a bit and play a more phsycial style of hoops which will keep this combined score on the low side of the number. 

Budenholzer is 39-18 UNDER  in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average of 206.4 ppg scored.


NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 61-23 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (UTAH) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 41-16 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Suns enter this game as the top ppg defence in the NBA, behind the slowest pace. Im betting they dictate the pacde again vs a Detroit team that is trending lower in many categories including offencive rating where they rank 20th. Everything points to this being a lower scoring affair. 


NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DETROIT) - after trailing their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half against opponent after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more are 33-10 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

These teams have taken part in some physical grinding affairs of late when they have met and 5 of their L/6 meetings have resulted in the under cashing.Under is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 games as an underdog. Under is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Dallas HC Carlisle is 124-84 UNDER vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents in all games he has coached  with a combined average of 192.7 ppg scored in those tilts. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - off a win against a division rival against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more are 83-41 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - vs. division opponents, off 2 or more consecutive home wins are 37-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

I am betting Denver behind a 28th ranked pace, will dictate this game in the trenches, which will help keep this combined score on the low side of the total.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or better ) against an average shooting team (43.5-45.5%), after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 31-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 207.7 ppg. 

Play UNDER

Utah runs a pace that ranks 23rd in the NBA and now own the 8th best ppg defence and here tonight Im betting that we have value taking the under here vs a  Nets side that has gone under in 7 of their  last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 like the Jazz. 

Snyder is 30-15 UNDER L/45 versus poor ball handling teams - committing 16 or more  turnovers/game as the coach of UTAH with a combined average of 196.1 ppg per game going on the board.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 62-29 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better against opponent after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 30-6 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

I have charted how the Heat have performed recently against sides like Oklahoma City that are having a hard time competing. These following trends give us an indication of a strong factor favoring the over.  MIAMI is 16-4 OVER in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.7 ppg scored. MIAMI is 10-1 OVER versus struggling  teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.7 ppg scored. Also MIAMI is 20-6 OVER  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 225 ppg going on the board.  MIAMI is 13-3 OVER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Play OVER

Analysis to follow- thank you for your patience - All NBA wagers come with a full explanation of why and how I came to my conclusions. 

Alex Smart's moto  Alex's moto comes via the late Great Jimmy the Greek, "The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself".

Play on the UNDER

Analysis to follow- thank you for your patience - All NBA wagers come with a full explanation of why and how I came to my conclusions. 

Alex Smart's moto  Alex's moto comes via the late Great Jimmy the Greek, "The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself".

Play on the OVER 

Portland enters this game ranked 9th in offensive output and 23rd in defensive ppg against and 25th in defensive rating. Meanwhile, the Warriors rank 2nd in pace in the league, and 30th in ppg allowed. This current form for both teams sets up for a formula of big offensive numbers going on the board. 

PORTLAND is 14-2 OVER  after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 season with a combined average of 239.5  ppg going on the board. 

Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PORTLAND) - off an road win scoring 110 or more points, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 74-39 OVER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

My projections have made this game total 224 thus giving us value with an over wager. 


UTAH is 8-0 OVER in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 233 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (UTAH) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 32-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

My projections estimate that the Pacers will score 112+ points and will force the Knciks to chase . Note: INDIANA is 31-6 OVER  when they score 112 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.5 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (NEW YORK) - after scoring 90 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight game are 27-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.

Play OVER 

My projections make this total closer ot 229 thus giving us value with an under wager.


 HOUSTON is 16-3 UNDER  after allowing 110 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. HOUSTON is 33-17 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (HOUSTON) - after scoring 120 points or more against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 56-23 UNDER  L/23 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 105-58 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. 

Play on UNDER 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PHOENIX) - poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 or more  PPG), after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 44-18 OVER L/24 seasons  for an 71% conversion rate. 

Play OVER

 The Pelicans enter this tilt vs Oklahoma city ranked  last in pace in the league and , 29th in offense and have seen their first 4 games of the season stay under the set total . Meanwhile,  OKC when at full strength like they are expected to be tonight are a solid defensive side that must be respected. Under is 7-1 in Pelicans last 8 games as a favorite.Under is 12-2 in Pelicans last 14 overall . Under is 4-0 in Pelicans last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Under is 50-23-1 in Thunder last 74 games as an underdog.

Play UNDER 

These two sides just don't push for explosive offensive flow and have shown some conservative style here early this season, especially when attempting shots from downtown ranking bottom six in the league in beyond the arc attempts . Both sides are showing early signs of injury woes, and some key players are hobbled missing in action or less than 100%.

 INDIANA is 27-12 UNDER  in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 3 seasons.

On Tuesday night, the Bucks set an NBA record by sinking 29 3-pointers while crushing the Heat 144-97. Tonight in the rematch it will be difficult for the Bucks to exert the same energy while, the Heat will be primed to step up on defence and be more physical, which will translate Im betting into a lower scoring affair than yesterdays combined  score.   MILWAUKEE is 9-1 UNDER off a road blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.2 ppg  going on the board. 

  NBA team (MILWAUKEE) - a very good team (+7 PPG or more  differential) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG differential), after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games are 23-5 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate. 

Play on UNDER

The two most recents meetings in this series have seen 235 and 246 combined points go on the board and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here in this matchup. Over is 10-2 in Nuggets last 12 games as a road favorite. Over is 7-3 in Kings last 10 games as an underdog.

Play OVER 

My totals number projects at 221 thus giving us value on over wager. Orlando owns the 5th fastest pace early here this season. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City ranks 13th in pace and will be forced into a high energy flow here against a superior side, that can run and push the speed of this game to higher levels. 

ORLANDO is 17-3 OVER  after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 13-1 OVER  after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 235 ppg going on the board. Over is 6-0-1 in Magic last 7 games as a road favorite.Over is 4-0-1 in Magic last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Over is 4-0-1 in Magic last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Over is 13-2-1 in Magic last 16 games as a favorite.Over is 6-1 in Thunder last 7 home games. Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Play OVER

 The Bucks, now with two losses in their first three games, would love to get back on track against the Heat side that they have huge revenge against for play off ejection embarrasement. I just dont see the Bucks sitting back and trying to make this into a tight play off style game, and instead will be out looking to run and gun in angry fashion, which will turn this tilt into more wide open tilt than the linesmakers are expecting. MIAMI is 22-11 OVER in home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.1 ppg going on the scoreboard.  NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (MIAMI) - after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 227-114 OVER L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate. 

Play OVER 

Indiana is a defence first side and nothing will change tonight against top tier opponent Boston.  Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 games as a home underdog. Under is 7-1 in Pacers last 8 games as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Celtics play more conservatively on the road behind a solid D, as is evident by the following trends going  9-3-1 UNDER  in  their  last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. 
INDIANA is 15-4 UNDER  in home games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 204.1 ppg going on the baord. 

NBA  team (INDIANA) - a very good team (7  or more PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG differential), after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games are 54-19 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (INDIANA) - a very good team (7 or more PPG differential) against a terrible team (7  or less PPG differential), after a combined score of 215 points or more are 33-11 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER 

Washington plays a one way type of game, that is based on all out run and gun basketball with  little or no consideration for strong defensive play. Its all about entertainment in the new NBA and this is the type of hoops the fan base wants to see. Tonight Im expecting offensive fireworks at both ends of the court and for two defenses Chicago and Washington allowing an average of more than 121 and 125  ppg respectively to be left vulnerable again. 

Over is 7-2 in Bulls last 9 games as a road underdog.Over is 7-2 in Bulls last 9 road games.

WASHINGTON is 10-1 OVER  versus good foul drawing teams - attempting 27 or more  free throws/game over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 245 ppg going on the board.WASHINGTON is 11-2 OVER  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 244 ppg. 

Play OVER 

Both these sides can really light up the scoreboard when in a groove which Im betting both teams are. The Lakers just scored 138 and 127 points respectively in their L/2 trips to the hardwood, while the run and gun Blazers scored 128 points last time out. My own projections estimate, that this line is closer to 229, making this total high on the value perspective for over wager.  Over is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 Monday games.Over is 12-3 in Trail Blazers last 15 games following a straight up win. Over is 8-2 in Trail Blazers last 10 road games.Over is 10-4 in Trail Blazers last 14 games as a road underdog.Over is 10-4 in Trail Blazers last 14 games as a road underdog.

Play OVER

My projections make this total closer to the 214 mark, thus giviing us value with a under wager .

OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-8 UNDER  when the total is 218.5 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.9 ppg scored. 

The Jazz are 0-11-1 UNDER L/12  as a road favorite when they lost 2+ straight matchups vs this opponent with none of the games eclipsing this total. 

Play UNDER

Pierce is 27-12 OVER  after playing 2 consecutive road games as the coach of ATLANTA with a combined average of 135.5 ppg scored. 

The Hawks are 10-0 OVER L/10  at home coming off a road game going over by more than 23 ppg on average. 

Play OVER 

These are two play off contenders with tough defenses. The new version of the Pacers after lousy trey numbers last season will try to get going behind the arc more this season, but the Celtics own a strong 3 point D, and nothing is going to come easy from long range for the Pacers tonight. Meanwhile,  the Celtics themselves Im betting struggle for flow vs a physically bigger Pacers side that is well balanced and mean on the inside. Im betting on a combined score that fails to eclipse this total. 

 Under is 8-3-1 in Celtics last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Under is 8-3-1 in Celtics last 12 road games.

Under is 6-1 in Pacers last 7 games as an underdog.

INDIANA is 143-110 UNDER  at home when the line is +3 to -3 since 1996 with a combined average of 196.7 ppg scored. 

Stevens is 65-45 UNDER off a home loss as the coach of BOSTON with a combined average score of 205.7 ppg. 

Play UNDER

Sixers visit Cavaliers in battle of unbeatens. Defence is key to both sides and nothing will change today. Under is 4-1 in 76ers last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Under is 10-3 in 76ers last 13 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Under is 11-5 in 76ers last 16 games as a road favorite. Under is 13-3 in Cavaliers last 16 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Under is 11-5 in 76ers last 16 games as a road favorite.

The Kings posted a dramatic 124-122 overtime win over the host Denver Nuggets on Wednesday, while Phoenix held off the Dallas Mavericks for a 106-102 home win on the same night. What stood out to me was the Suns top tier defensive play and Im betting on more of the same type of hoops in this spot , which favors this score to stay on the low side of the total. 

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 67-32 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

late steam- under 

Atlanta plays a one way brand of run and gun basketball, and nothing should change with the full throttle Young leading the way. Meanwhile, Memphis must not be underestimated in their abiility to fire back with some offensive fireworks of their own in a tilt I have pegged to eclipse this total. ATLANTA is 37-25 OVER  when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.

Play OVER

Its still early on the season to use pace numbers, but I expect both teams will take part in a high octane type of affair rather than a defensive minded play off type game that they took part in during the recent bubble play off adventure both took part in. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a combined score of 225 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more with a combined average of 105-60 OVER L/24 seasons for a 64% conversion rate.

NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DENVER) - after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more against opponent after scoring 115 points or more are 155-97 OVER L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Im betting people maybe surprised at how much improvement New Orleans will make defensively this season under Van Gundy. Meanwhile, Miami bases their successes and failures on their ability to play top tier D, and tonight will be not differnet. 

Van Gundy is 187-141 UNDER  in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average score of 198.5 ppg scored. 

Spoelstra is 297-266 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of MIAMI with the average combiend score of this big sample size clicking in at 198 ppg. 

NBA team (MIAMI) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, good team from last season (60% to 75%) playing a team who had a losing record last year are 53-24 UNDER  L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Im betting people maybe surprised at how much improvement New Orleans will make defensively this season under Van Gundy. Meanwhile, Miami bases their successes and failures on their ability to play top tier D, and tonight will be not differnet. 

Van Gundy is 187-141 UNDER  in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average score of 198.5 ppg scored. 

Spoelstra is 297-266 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of MIAMI with the average combiend score of this big sample size clicking in at 198 ppg. 

NBA team (MIAMI) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, good team from last season (60% to 75%) playing a team who had a losing record last year are 53-24 UNDER  L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Heat have never for one second stopped working hard, and are now getting more physical as the series progresses . Now with the noose tightening on the Lakers and the Heats confidence surging, Im betting on a absolute war here in game 6 with defense and hard core bone breaking action to take center stage. Look for almost every shot to be contested in a hardcore battle that results in a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. 

Play UNDER 

At their current paces this game projects off as being a tilt that reaches the 220 point plateau  which gives us an edge on this number to the OVER.  Im betting both sides score more than 108 ppg each. Note: LA LAKERS are 33-8 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season. MIAMI is 46-2 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 233.4 ppg. When these teams played earlier this season they combined for 223 points. 

MIAMI is 21-12 OVER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season with a combined average of 219.4 ppg. MIAMI is 20-9 OVER  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 226 ppg. M2IAMI is 18-8 OVER  after a combined score of 235 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 223.8 ppg. 

Play OVER 

Nothing in this series so far suggests that either teams offense will continue to average less than they have  so far. Anything is possible, but remember we are playing the odds based on the data at hand, which suggests from a projections stand point that both teams will score more than 106 points each in what the lines-makers expect to be a closely contested affair. Boston really pushed against the Heat in the 4th quarter last time, and Im betting knowing that the Heat will want to open up and push the pace to keep the Celtics from setting up in the half court. Advantage OVER. 

 MIAMI is 45-2 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with the combined average score of 233.3 ppg scored. BOSTON is 34-8 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of  234.1 ppg. 

MIAMI in 18 games  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of those tilts clicking in at 223.7 ppg. 

Miami in 18 Atlantic division affairs this season have seen a combined average score of 219.8 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MIAMI) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 75-40 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Miami has not been held to less than 106 points in any of these games vs Boston, and my projections estimate a similar out put here tonight and for Boston in desperation mode to also keep up offensively in more aggressive fashion and let it all hang out as elimination is a real possibility down 3 games to 1.  It must be noted that MIAMI is 44-2 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with the average combined score clicking in at 233.4 ppg.is 33-8 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 234.3 ppg scored. Note: The Celtics are averaging  114.6 points per 100 possessions this series, despite of their tentativeness at times.  Miami  has averaged 114.0 points per 100 possessions. 

MIAMI is 15-4 OVER when playing 5 or less games in 14 days this season with a combined average of 228 ppg going on the board. 

BOSTON is 8-0 OVER after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season with a combined average of 237.8 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

The Nuggets  came back from being down 3-1 twice in a row and looked wobbly in game 1 , and Im not sure they will be 100% energized here in this spot, but a better more aggressive effort is my bet. With top tier offensive talent and a never say die attitude scoring will be up for Denver after going just 9 for 26 behind the arc in game 1. Meanwhile, The Lakers in game 1 of this series, looked hungry and focused behind Antonio Davis and his 37 point output, and now I will expect  his Future HOF cohort James to pick up the pace in game two after only scoring 15 points and for the Lakers to push the pace. This Im betting leads to a fairly high scoring play off game that eclipses this total. 

Over is 6-2-1 in Nuggets last 9 games following a ATS loss.Over is 9-3-1 in Nuggets last 13 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.Over is 11-4-1 in Nuggets last 16 games following a straight up loss.

Over is 6-2 in Lakers last 8 Conference Finals games.

Over is 21-7-2 in the last 30 meetings.

Play on the OVER 

Two second half collapses by the Celtics have put them in a precarious place in this series down 2-0. The Celtics now have to leave everything on the floor today, and push forward in a more aggressive fashion, which Im betting opens this game up a little more, which in turn will help lift this combined score over the number. The first two totals came in at 208 and 209.5, and I feel that thats where they should be today, this giving us value on an over wager. Note:These teams are averaging 231.25 combined points per 100 possessions with a drum banging pace of  91.72, with top tier efficiency.

BOSTON is 7-0 OVER  after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season with a combined average score of 239.6 ppg. 

MIAMI is 12-3 OVER after a win by 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 229.5 ppg. 

Play OVER

Miami really was lights-out efficient in game 1 of this series offensively and now Im betting on a regression and for both these teams to settle into a much slower paced game here in game 2 after the game 1 OT affair. 

Under is 7-3 in Heat last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Under is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 

NBA teams where the Under is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.

 NBA teams with a total of  200 to 209.5 (BOSTON) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after scoring 115 points or more are 34-8 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

This is do or die for Houston and Im expecting them to leave everything on the floor today in aggressive fashion. Im betting the Rockets force the Lakers to open up and for this combined score to eclipse this total. 

LA LAKERS are 10-2 OVER  after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half this season with a combined average of 233 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (LA LAKERS/HOUSTON ) - in the second round of the playoffs are 144-68 OVER L/24 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

This series is getting slower as it progresses as is evident by pace (number of possessions)  as game one registered in  at  97.7 game 2 at 95.3 and game 3 at 89.5. Houston is small ball team, with top tier talent , but  a limited bench and that effects their offensive efficiency in flow when facing    the Lakers big men who are really putting a physical beating on their opponents.  Im betting nothing changes tonight. 

LA LAKERS are 13-2 UNDER vs struggling  rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 5+/game over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score clicking in at 216.5 ppg. 

HC D'Antoni is 36-17 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70% or more ) as the coach of HOUSTON with the combined average score registering at 218.2 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

The Nuggets have hounded Kawhi Leonard non stop so far in this series and that has effected the Clippers offensive flow and Im expecting more of the same here today in a game I have projected to stay under the total. 

LA CLIPPERS are 12-2 UNDER  in non home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season with a combined average of 217.1 ppg. LA CLIPPERS are 13-3 UNDER  in non home games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 season with the combined average score clicking in at 218 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA CLIPPERS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 59-19 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

This series has been fairly slow paced , with 97 and 95 possessions in Games 1 and 2 . Alot of turnovers have created alot of fast breaks points  but that Im betting  will regress , and what will remain is a more conservative type of affair here in game 3. 

HOUSTON is 17-6 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or better ) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 219.8 ppg scored. 

LA LAKERS are 14-6 UNDER against Southwest division opponents this season with a combined average of 221 ppg going on the board. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA LAKERS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 51-19 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

My projections estimate that both these teams will score +108 points here today based on pace and shooting algorithms. . It must be noted that MILWAUKEE is 35-8 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 240 ppg going on the board, while MIAMI is 41-2 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 234 ppg scored. 

MIAMI in 37 games with  the total of 210 to 219.5 this season have seen a combined average of 219.2 ppg going on the board. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI) - in the second round of the playoffs are 112-64 OVER L/24 seasons for a long term 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Rockets had the best defensive rating in the bubble at 101.7, and played decent defence against Oklahoma City. Now while expecting some small ball from the Rockets, I still believe the Lakers will return fire in transition a more tempered approach in an effort to take the Rockets off their game, which in turn will result in a lower scoring tilt that the linesmakers might expect. 

HOUSTON is 15-4 UNDER  in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 223.2 ppg scored.HOUSTON is 27-10 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or more ) over the last 3 seasons with combined average 218.2 ppg going on the board.HOUSTON is 33-17 UNDER as an underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 219.9 ppg scored. D'Antoni is 21-9 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or better ) - 2nd half of the season as the coach of HOUSTON with a combined average of 218.4 ppg scored. 

The Jazz  and Nuggets  are playing at the slowest pace during the play offs, averaging just over 93 possessions per 48 minutes. The reason why these games have been high scoring so far in this series is because of some absolutely insane shooting especially from downtown, but their due for a regression, and Im noticing that Denver is becoming more physical, and that Im betting  is going to create tighter spaces and some ugly shooting which in turn will have a direct effect on this game being lower scoring. Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (UTAH/DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 71-32 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Harden and company were on their way to a 3-1 series lead vs the Thunder last time out, but blew a DD lead. Now in redemption mode I expect a concerted two way effort from Houston and for Oklahoma city to regress offensively, which will result in a lower scoring game than expected by the lines-makers. 

HOUSTON is 11-2 UNDER  after a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 220 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-8 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with a combined average of 208.7 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 71-32 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA.teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 41-18 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

After getting upset 122-110 in the series opener, the Bucks have  gone into hyper drive  defensively and have subsequently recorded three straight wins that have put them on the doorstep of advancement in the East. Defense is now the calling card for the Bucks in this series, and nothing will change today . 

The Bucks rank first in the league in defensive rating. Orlando ranks 10th in D rating and 25th in pace and 24th in ppg scored. 

ORLANDO is 27-13 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% ) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 207.9 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 4 - Lake Buena Vista, F  

 The pace of the first 3 games of this series  registered at  98, 91, and 102  (with game 3 going into OT). Rinse and repeat here today. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-4 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog this season with as combined average of 211.2 ppg scored. 

HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER when playing their 4th road game in 7 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the UNDER

Torontos offense remains explosive and  been firing on all cylinders in this series, scoring 116.8 points per 100 possessions and they also love to transition at high pace, (19.25) while hitting at 55.8% effective field goal percentage rate. I know the Nets have not looked good offensively but with nothing left to lose I expect them to open and to just let loose as they hope to be competitive in what is likely their last play off game of the season.

Brooklyn in 27 games this season versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season have seen a combined average score of  225.2 ppg scored. 

Play OVER

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 3 - Orlando, FL

Key offensive numbers which give momentum to a lower scoring affair here center around the  Magic have the lowest percentage of shots at the rim in the post season bubble, and  the second-least corner 3s behind a offense that is not always flowing smoothly. Thanks to their offensive inefficiencies they  have registered  the second-worst expected eFG% during these playoffs. Considering how elite the Bucks D, is Im expecting more struggles today. Meanwhile, Orlando can play conssitent D, and when Gordon is on the floor they have a star defender to mobilize against  Antetokounmpo who he  limited to 8-for-21 shooting . With that said, Im betting on a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total.

ORLANDO is 11-2 UNDER versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 43%  or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 204.3 ppg.ORLANDO is 20-9 UNDER  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 209 ppg going on the board.ORLANDO is 18-7 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70%) or better  over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 205.7 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

The Rockets were in a great flow pattern in game 1 of this series recording 129 Offensive Rating in the half court. This was by far Rockets’ best performance in the half court against any playoff team this season and the Thunder’s absolute worst performance. Now Im looking for a regression back to the norm for the Rockets, and for the Thunder to really look to grind this down game in physical fashion behind a 22nd ranked Pace, and 7th ranked D, and lower tier D ranked 22nd in ppg offensive output which will help keep this game on the low side of the total. 

8 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons.

HOUSTON is 15-6 UNDER versus  teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.HOUSTON is 33-19 UNDER  in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 40-16 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Oklahoma City beat Houston the last time they met back in January in a 112-107 win and my projections estimate a similar total combined score here today. Note:  D'Antoni is 23-4 UNDER in non home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite as the coach of HOUSTON with the combined average score of 217.3 ppg going on the board. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 26-13 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 20-8 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.

HOUSTON is 15-3 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season. HOUSTON is 17-3 UNDER  revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Rockets are 0-6 UNDER L/6 as a dog.

7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (HOUSTON) - in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 25-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 1 - Lake Buena Vista, F

Dallas’ defense is horrendous, and they dont have much or any play off experience  but this line is just a tad high according to my projections which gives us close to a two basket edge to the under. 

LA CLIPPERS are 14-4 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. LA CLIPPERS are 19-8 UNDER  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 24-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 1 - Lake Buena Vista, F

The Raptors defense is very deep and they have a size and physical edge in this series and have an ability to make shooters look bad.  This is evident by their 2nd ranked D vs opponents’ 50.3% eFG%. Also the Nets like to shoot 3s and the Raps will give them that opportunity , but it must be noted  , the Raptors are the best team at limiting opponents’ accuracy from downtown and the Nets Im betting will have issues converting. 

TORONTO is 23-14 UNDER  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season with the average combined score of those games clicking in at 217.8 ppg.

.NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BROOKLYN) - in a playoff game, in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 24-4 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

These teams have had 3 meetings this season with scores of 98-95 and 106-100, and than a Double OT game in the bubble that resulted in a flash card total of 134-132. Four the fourth meeting Im betting on another lower scoring affair, with no OT which will get us to the promised land of cashing an under ticket. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - playing with 2 days rest, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 67-34 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

-Western Conference - Play-In Game - Game 1 - Orlando, FL

Im betting Memphis will not play into the run and gun strength of the Blazers and instead play a more physical brand of basketball that gives them a chance to compete. This will result in a combined score that fails to eclipse this total.

MEMPHIS is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 season with a combined average of 203.9 ppg scored. 

MEMPHIS is 21-9 UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 222 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MEMPHIS/PORTLAND) - in a playoff game, in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 24-2 UNDER with a combined average of 208.5 ppg over the last 5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

Nets run the 10th fastest pace in the NBA while Orlando plays much slower. With the Nets short handed speed and small ball will be the name of the game which Im betting helps this game turn into a fast transitional affair that eclipses the total. After two straight losses Im expecting to a see an aggressive Magic side that will be primed to put points on the board. 

ORLANDO is 19-4 OVER   after a combined score of 225 points or more this season with a combined average of 230 ppg going on the board.

ORLANDO is 11-3 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with a combined average of 233.3 ppg going on the board. 

ORLANDO is 8-1 OVER  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season with a combined average of 228,7 ppg scored. 

Play OVER

Both teams rank in the top-10 in pace averaging  more than 105 possessions per game with the Clippers ranking 8th and suns 9th. Here in aneutral court environment Im betting they run and gun with wrecklaess abandon here today in a game that eclipses this total. 
The Suns are 13-1 OVER L/13 with less than two days rest off a win as a dog in which they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers with a combined average ppg total of 233.2 ppg scored.  

NBA teams are 12-0 OVER with more than one day of rest after they had at least 30% of their points from threes with a combined average of 252.7 ppg scored. 

Play over

Orlando, did a run and gun job on the Nets last time out byt no one played more than 26 minutes and they will be ready to run and gun again vs a Sacramento side, that  lost  129-120, despite 39 points from De'Aaron Fox. Today Im betting Fox continues his hot hand, and for the Magics array of young shooters to once again rain down some terror in what Im betting will be a back and forth affair. 

ORLANDO is 8-1 OVER   when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with a combined average of 236 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 7-0 OVER   after a combined score of 245 points or more this season with a combined average of 230.2 ppg scored. 

The Magic are 13-0 L/13 OVER after they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers with the average combined score clicking in at 236 ppg.The Magic are 13-0 L/13 OVER facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s with a combined average of 239.3 ppg scored. 

NBATeams like the Kings are 18-1 OVER L/19 on the road with less than two days rest off a loss as a favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average of 237.1 ppg scored. 

Play OVER

With key Pacers offensive cog not in the lineup here tonight vs Philadelphia, Indiana's offence Im betting will have flow problems. When Sabonis was healthy and playing earlier this season his team averaged 112 points per 100 possession and after he was injured the numbers fell to around 107 ppg points per 100 which is a huge drop in productivity . Im betting this has a direct effect on what  is a bloated tota considering the 76ers own the 4th best ppg average in the league behind a 19th ranked pace. On the flip side the Pacers own the 5th best ppg D, and rank 24th in pace, behind the 24th ranked offence. DEFENCE, DEFENCE and more DEFENCE here today.

l. Note: INDIANA is 11-2 UNDER  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 197.6 ppg scored.(8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons).

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Dallas   offense  ranks first in efficiency at 115.8 points per 100 possessions (one spot ahead ahead of the second-ranked Rockets)DALLAS is 11-2 OVER  on Friday nights this season with a combined average of 232.2 ppg scored. Both meetings this season were very high scoring affairs with a 128-121 result and a 137-123 score. Rinse and repeat on todays agenda. 

Play OVER

 These two teams have combined for at least 221 points in both head to head meetings this season, which includes 251 points in their last time they faced each other on the court. With a talented full compliment of players on the court for both teams Im expecting some  offensive fireworks .

Before the break the Bucks owned the number 1 pace in the league and the best offensive scoring output at 118.6 ppg .

Play OVER 

HP Field House - Orlando, FL

New Orleans is explosive offensively and run and gun at a very high speed. Look at data from their  last 15 games before the covid abruptly end the NBA season, the Pelicans had registered the second-fastest pace in the NBA (106.13). What makes them offensive converting machines is evident by a fourth-highest percentage of their points in transition (16.9%)  during the above time perimeters. Whether Zion plays or not today Im betting they go full throttle, and drag a capable Jazz into a fast paced affair that will eclipse this total. 

UTAH is 11-3 OVER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season with a combined average of 227.5 ppg scored. 

The Jazz won the season's first two meetings -- 128-120 at home and 128-126 on the road. The Pelicans won the most recent matchup, 138-132 in New Orleans on Jan. 16.

NBA Teams like the Pelicans are 17-0 OVER L/17 on the road/neutral after they had 20+ turnovers during the playoffs with a combined average of 227.7 ppg scored. 

The Pelicans are 23-4-1 OVER L/28 as a favorite with rest off a win facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throw with a combined average 233.4 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

Atlanta's Hunter and DeAndre Bembry (abdominal) are questionable prior to Monday's game and if they play I doubt they are playing at 100%.  This will effect the flow of the Hawks. Meanwhile, Charlotte behind the 30th ranked ppg output and 30th ranked pace will in their usual fashion look to grind their opponents down via a very deliberate approach. Here against a run and gun style side like Atlanta a even more conservative approach will be in effect which will directly effect this total to the under.

The Hornets are 4-29-1 to the UNDER L/34 on the road with rest when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home with a combined average of 202.4 ppg scored.The Hornets are 0-9 UNDER L/9 as a road dog with rest off a game as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s with a combined average of 195.5 ppg going on the board.

The Hawks are 0-14-1 UNDER L/15 as a favorite with rest off a road game when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss at home with the average combined score clicking in at 188.6 ppg scored.The Hawks are 0-11-1 UNDER L/12 as a favorite with less than two days rest off a game as a dog in which they scored a least 18 fast break points with a combined average of 197.5 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CHARLOTTE) - tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%). are 49-16 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

As we come closer to play off time teams that expect to be the post season start to pay alot more attention to defence. Thus when I look at this game between what are arguably the best two teams in the west Im expecting we have an edge with an under wager. Im betting a slower paced game that will be more physical than usual for a regular season tilt, and for both to contest the rim repeatedly. 

The Lakers are 4-30 UNDER L/43 when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a win when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent with a combined average of 197.9 ppg scoredThe Lakers are 2-23 to the UNDER L/25  when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a win when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home with a combined average of 190.2 ppg going on the board. 

NBA Teams like the Clippers are 0-13 UNDER L/13 at home when the line is within 3 of pick with more than one day of rest off a 10+ win facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s with a combined average of 209.6 ppg scored. 

Play on the UNDER 

A depleted banged up and exhausted 76ers will play their  4th away game on this west coast road trip in  a week and now they will   be on tired legs and far from ready to run and gun which Im betting will help make this a lower scoring affair.   NBA teams like Philadelphia  0-17 to the UNDER L/17 on the road with less than two days rest off a win as a road dog in which they had at least 15 more shots than their opponent with a combined average of 205.3 ppg scored.

The Seventysixers are 0-12-1 UNDER L/13 with less than two days rest off a 10+ win in a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average of 198 ppg scored. 

The Warriors are 0-12-1 UNDER L/13 when the line is within 3 of pick off a game as a dog when seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road with a combined average of 199.1 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Denver enters this tilt having gone over in 11 of their L/14 games, while the Cavaliers have gone over in 3 straight, and have seen themselves and their opponents average 223+ ppg when playing as hosts this season  as they are here tonight. With Denver finally healthy Im betting they will continue to gear up for play off basketball by getting their offensive flow back, and for Cleveland with nothing to play for to be loose and to run the floor with wreck-less abandon in chase mode, which projects to a higher combined score than this current totals line suggests. 

Nuggets: 5-0 OVER L5 in non-conference road games while the Cavaliers are : 7-0 OVER L/7  in 2/1 rest situation. 

Over is 3-0-1 in Nuggets last 4 games following a ATS loss.Over is 8-0 in Nuggets last 8 games as a road favorite.Over is 7-1-1 in Nuggets last 9 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 10-2 in Nuggets last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Over is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Over is 4-1-1 in Nuggets last 6 overall.

Over is 5-0 in Cavaliers last 5 Saturday games.Over is 12-3 in Cavaliers last 15 games following a ATS loss.Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games as a home underdog.Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

The Nuggets are 20-3-1 OVER L/24 as a road favorite with rest off a road game in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers with a combined average of 234.5 ppg going on the score board. The Nuggets are 10-0 OVER L/10 as a road favorite with rest off a win in a road game in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers with a combined average of 224.9 ppg scored. 

NBA Teams like the Nuggets are 25-4-1 OVER with less than two days rest off a win in a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 15 turnovers per game with the average combined score of those games clicking in at 238.1 ppg. 

Play OVER 

 There is alot of offense in both these teams lineup, but Im expecting this heavy weight battle, to be like a post season tilt and be lower scoring because of both sides expected attention to playing solid defence and to be physical as well. It must be noted the Bucks own the 2nd best ppg D in the NBA, and the No.1 defensive rating. Meanwhile, the Lakers own the 3rd best defensive rating, behind a deliberate disciplined pace that ranks 12th in the league.

The Bucks are 0-15-1 UNDER L/16 as a dog with less than two days rest off a win in a home game in which they scored more than 50 points in the paint with a combined average of 191.6 ppg. 

The Lakers are 4-29 UNDER L/33 when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a win when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent with a combined average of 197.4 ppg going on the board. 

LA LAKERS are 18-5 UNDER  as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.7 ppg scored.LA LAKERS are 15-4 UNDER   in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.2 ppg scored.  

Play UNDER 

Miami is quite methodical in their approach to most games, behind the 26th ranked pace, and here against a explosive New Orleans team, that must be respected Im sure  HC Spoelstra  has a grinding game plan on his agenda. You have to remember this is the same Heat team that just held Milwaukee to 89s points recently. 

The Heat are 2-16-1 UNDER L/19 when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a win facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average score of 192 ppg going on the board with none of the games in the sub set going over this total. 

The Pelicans are 0-8 UNDER L/8 at home with rest when they are off two games in which they had twice as many assists as turnovers with the combined average score clicking in at 219.4 ppg. 

 NBA Teams like the Pelicans  are 0-15 UNDER L/15 when the line is within 3 of pick off a game as a dog in which they scored more than 50 points in the paint with a combined average of 211.6 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MIAMI) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 215 points or more are 27-5 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER