40* NCAAF WEDNESDAY MAC ATS KNOCKOUT (E. Michigan -2) 

I don’t think this line is going to make a whole lot of sense to a lot of people. Central Michigan is 3-2 inside conference play and fresh off a big upset win on the road over one of the top teams in the MAC in Western Michigan. Why would they be getting points at home against a Eastern Michigan team that is just 3-6 overall and just won their first conference game of the season?

Any time you have a line that looks wrong, it’s usually for a good reason. Especially this late in the season when the books are locked in on every team. However, the line isn’t the only reason I would lean towards taking the Eagles in this matchup. I actually agree with the books here and see Eastern Michigan as the better team.

If you take a closer look at the Eagles resume to this point, you will quickly see their record could look a heck of lot different if they caught a few breaks in close games. It’s bad enough to lose a two or three games by a touchdown or less. All 6 of Eastern Michigan’s defeats this year have come by 7 or less points, including 3 by 3 or less. They are 1-6 in games this season decided by a touchdown or less, while Central Michigan has caught all the breaks with a 3-0 record in these close games.

I also feel like this is a great matchup for the Eagles offensively. Eastern Michigan has a top tier passing attack behind senior Brogan Roback, which comes in ranked 30th in the nation at 276.8 ypg. Where they have struggled is on the ground, as they are 122nd at 108.9 ypg. That lack of balance has cost them in a lot of close games this year. They should be able to have a balanced attack here, as the Chippewas are 109th in the country vs the run, giving up 205.8 ypg. They allowed 300 or more yards on the ground for the third time this season last week against Northern Illinois.

This is also a much better Eagles defense than it gets credit for and that’s saying something, as they come in allowing just 20.3 ppg. What’s so impressive about that is their opponents on average are scoring 28.7 ppg. In comparison, Central Michigan is allowing 27.1 ppg against teams who on average put up 28.7 ppg.

Lastly, I like the spot here for Eastern Michigan, who need to win out to become bowl eligible. Central Michigan on the other hand needs to win just 1 of their final 3 to get to the 6-win mark and I think they are in a prime letdown spot here after the huge comeback win over their rivals last week. Give me the Eagles -2.

40* NCAAF TUES. NIGHT MAC ATS BLOWOUT (Miami-OH -6.5) 

I'll take my chances on the RedHawks winning at home by at least a touchdown on Tuesday against Akron. This line will likely surprise a lot of people, as the Zips are tied on top the MAC East division at 4-1, while Miami is just 2-3 in conference play. That right there tells you how misleading the books thinks the records are. 

Akron has done an outstanding job of winning ugly. The Zips are only averaging 332.8 ypg inside conference play, while giving up 452.6 ypg. To be outgained on average by roughly 120 ypg is more indicative of a 1-4 team than 4-1. In comparison, Miami is putting up 427.6 ypg and allowing just 378.4 ypg.

Unless the Zips catch all the break again, I think this one will turn into a blowout and easy cover for the RedHawks, who are going to be laying everything on the line here, as they need to win out to become bowl eligible. Give me Miami (OH) -6.5! 

40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT ATS SHOCKER (USC -7)

I'll be the first to admit that I didn't foresee USC coming out and playing as well as they did last week on the road against Arizona State after that crushing loss to Notre Dame the previous week, which all but eliminated them from the playoff picture. If they are going to show in that spot, I see no reason not to expect a huge effort here from the Trojans at home against Arizona, as these two teams sit on top the Pac-12 South with just 1-loss in conference play. 

No longer having to deal with the pressure of winning the national championship brought out the best in this team and I also think we saw a pissed off Sam Darnold in that game against Arizona State, as there's been all kinds of people doubting his ability with USC not living up to their potential. I think he has a big final few games of the season and helps the Trojans make easy work of a good but not great Arizona team at home. Give me USC -7! 

50* PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Arizona State -3)

I think we are seeing a big overreaction here based on last week's results of both of these teams. Colorado had one of their best games of the season in a 44-28 win at home against Cal, while the Sun Devils are off one of their worst performance of the season in a 17-48 home loss to USC. I think how well the Trojans came out after that ugly loss to Notre Dame surprised ASU, as a lot of people were calling for USC to struggle with their playoff hopes all but crushed. 

Prior to the loss to the Trojans, the Sun Devils had been playing some of their best football of the season, which included 4 straight covers as a double-digit dog, three of which they won outright, including that 13-7 win at home over Washington. My money is on Arizona State to bounce back in a big way here in a prime time night game at home against what I feel is a below-average Colorado team. 

That win over Cal was only the second in the last 6 games for the Buffaloes and the other was against the worst team in the Pac-12 in Oregon State and they barely won that 36-33. In their two games against top tier teams from the conference they were no match, losing by 27 at home to Washington and 28 at Washington State. While ASU isn't quite on that level, they should have no problem winning here by at least a touchdown. Give me the Sun Devils -3! 

40* NCAAF BIG MONEY ATS SLAUGHTER (Michigan -15)

I don't think many will be running to the ticket window to back the Wolverines, but I see some hidden value here with Michigan at home against the Gophers. The one thing that's been holding back the Wolverines is their offense, but I don't think that's going to be the case for long. Last week against Rutgers Jim Harbaugh finally went with red-shirt freshman quarterback Brandon Peters and the offense looked completely different with him under center. I think the move gives new life to this team and will have the Big House rocking under the lights Saturday. 

Michigan's defense is still one of the best in the country, ranking 8th against the run (104.1 ypg) and 2nd against the pass (151.4 ypg). They have had to shoulder the load and it can be hard on a defense to play up to their full potential when they don't have a lot of confidence in the offenses ability to put up points.

I think the QB switch also has a big positive impact on them and this Minnesota offense is one they can shutdown. The Gophers are 11th in total offense and offer little to no threat of a passing game. I see things spiraling out of control pretty quickly and wouldn't be surprised if they had a couple costly turnovers that put this one well out of reach early. Give me the Wolverines -15! 

40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS ENFORCER (Miami +3)

All the Hurricanes have heard this week in practice is how their 7-0 start isn't good enough and that they have been fortunate to win two of their games. I like that this team has shown the ability to win close games, especially since we are getting a field goal with them at home in a prime time night game. I expect Miami to come out with a chip on their shoulder and put together one of their best performances of the season. 

Virginia Tech is a good team, but in their only game against a top tier opponent in Clemson they were completely outmatched and let's not forget that was a prime time home game for the Hokies.

Much like they did against Clemson, I think Va Tech is going to have to ask too much of their red-shirt freshman QB in Joshua Jackson. I think Jackson and the Hokies find it hard to move the ball against the speed and athleticism of this Hurricanes defense. Give me Miami +3! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Texas +7)

When Tom Herman is getting points you have to roll the dice and back his team. Going back to his days as the offensive coordinator at Ohio State, the team he's coached has gone a perfect 14-0 ATS when listed as an underdog and that includes a perfect 3-0 ATS mark with the Longhorns this season. 

I also love the fact that Texas is coming in with serious revenge, as they have lost each of the last 3 in the series. TCU on the other hand is a team I think is going to struggle to pick themselves off the mat after last week's crushing 7-14 loss to Iowa State, which pretty much derailed any hopes they had of making the playoffs. 

In that game against the Cyclones, who have been playing great defense dating back to the 2nd half against Oklahoma, TCU's offense was non existent and when they did get into ISU territory, starting quarterback Kenny Hill had two costly turnovers. His confidence has to be shattered and it's not going to get any easier for him against Texas.

Hill is going to have to make plays, as TCU figures to have a tough time moving the ball on the ground against this Longhorns run defense, which is one of the best in the country, allowing just 71 ypg and 2.2 yards/carry at home. If Hill struggles like I think he will, this could get ugly. Give me the Longhorns +7! 

50* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH (Clemson -7)

I'll take my chances here with Clemson laying just a touchdown against rival NC State. I think this Tigers team is being greatly undervalued after the loss to Syracuse, where they lost their quarterback midway through the game. This is still the same team that whooped up some really good teams and if not for horrible weather they would have beat Georgia Tech by a lot more than 14 last week. 

NC State is a great story and I can understand why they are getting some respect, I just don't think they are good as people think. That certainly appeared to be true in last week's 14-35 loss to Notre Dame, who was primed for picking off after that big game against USC the week before. That's really the only elite team they have played so far. I see this one playing out very similar to that of the game last week against the Irish, where the offense struggles to put up points and the defense has their hands full against top tier talent on the other side. 

Under head coach Dave Doeren the Wolf Pack are just 2-9 ATS in 11 home games played in the 2nd half of the season, 2-11 ATS in their last 13 home games after playing their previous on the road and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after playing their previous two games on the road. Give me the Tigers -7! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Michigan State +9.5)

Penn State can say all they want about how they aren't going to let the Ohio State loss derail the rest of the season. I'm not buying it. They know just like we do that the loss to the Buckeyes all but ended any hope they had of making the playoffs and playing for a national championship, as they would need Ohio State to not just lose one but two games to sneak back into the picture as the Big Ten champs. 

That's going to make it near impossible for the Nittany Lions to bring the right mindset on the road after that crushing loss to the Buckeyes. At the same time, I don't think Michigan State is getting near the respect they deserve. This is one of the better teams in the country that no one is talking about and still have a ton to play for. In fact, if they win out, which would include a win at Ohio State next week, they would take home the Big Ten East title. 

This is a line I would have liked the Spartans at even if Penn State would have beat Ohio State and weren't in such a horrible spot. Given the situation, I think Michigan State should be favored or at worse getting no more than 3 points. That makes this an easy play on the home dog. Give me the Spartans +9.5! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Purdue -14)

I was on the wrong end of the bad beat last week with Purdue, but that’s not going to keep me from laying the two touchdowns with the Boilermakers at home on Saturday. Purdue is so much better than what they have shown the last few weeks and this feels like the perfect spot for them to get back on track.

Illinois is the worst team in the Big Ten and are in a prime letdown spot off that home game against the Badgers. The Fighting Illini are 0-3 on the road, losing by an average of 20 ppg. They just don’t have the offensive fire-power to be competitive away from home. Illinois hasn’t scored more than 24 points in a single game and are averaging just 17.3 ppg on the season.

I think Purdue can hold them well below their average, as the Boilermakers are a lot better defensively than they get credit for. Purdue is holding teams roughly 10 points under their season average. Illinois on the other hand is allowing their opponents to score 10 points more than what they average when on the road. If that holds true, we are looking at final here of roughly 34-7. That’s more than enough to cover the 14-point spread.

There’s several key trends in play here that back a fade of Illinois in this spot. The Fighting Illini are a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games when they come in having lost 5 or more games in a row and have lost in this spot by more than 20 ppg. Illinois is also 15-31 ATS in their last 46 off a double-digit loss at home and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Purdue on the other hand is a solid 9-3 ATS in their last 12 after a game in which they failed to cover the spread. Give me Purdue -14! 

40* NCAAF BOOKIE ATS SLAUGHTER (Vanderbilt -9.5)

I got no problem backing the Commodores at home at this price. Vanderbilt should have zero problem winning by double-digits here against what I feel is one of the most overrated teams in the country in Western Kentucky. 

The Hilltoppers went 23-5 the previous two seasons under previous head coach Jeff Brohm, but he left the cupboard empty with just 10 returning starters and Brohm was such a big part in why they were so good. Just look at how much better Purdue is already in his first year there.

WKU does come in with a winning record at 5-3, including a 4-1 record over their last 5, but their wins have come against Eastern Kentucky, Ball State, UTEP, Charlotte and Old Dominion. Ball State is atrocious and the 3 teams they have beat inside C-USA are a combined 3-21 on the year. They also lost by 17 on the road against Illinois, who is the worst team in the Big Ten and no where close to as good as Vanderbilt. 

The Commodores would be a much bigger favorite if they weren't coming into this game having lost 5 straight with a 0-4-1 ATS mark during this stretch. The thing is, 3 of those losses came on the road and the other two at home were against Alabama and Georgia. This team can still make a bowl with home games against Kentucky and Missouri, plus a game at Tennessee left on the schedule. I look for Vandy to take out their frustration on an inferior opponent. Give me the Commodores -9.5! 

50* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH (Florida +3.5)

I love teams in this spot, where everything looks lost after they just fired their head coach and think we are getting great value on top of it, as I think the Gators should be favored regardless of the circumstances. Either way, we can bank on a great effort here from Florida in the first game under interim head coach Randy Shannon. 

One of things that Shannon did right away is name former Notre Dame quarterback (grad transfer) Malik Zaire the starting QB. I'm not sure what he did to piss off McElwain, but I think he should have been the starter from the start. I think he gives new life to a Florida offense that desperately needs a spark. 

It doesn't hurt that it's coming against a horrible Missouri defense that ranks 98th against the run (192.4 ypg) and 103rd against the pass (260.6 ypg). I also think the Tigers defense will be in for a long day here against a really good Gators defense that simply had a bad game last time out against Georgia. Prior to giving up 42 to Bulldogs, they had held been playing really well and we have seen this Missouri offense struggle against worse defense, including a 3-point effort at home to Purdue. 

Florida is 31-16 ATS in their last 47 road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games and Missouri is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 14 or fewer points in their previous game. Give me the Gators +3.5!

40* UCLA/UTAH LATE NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (Utah -6.5) 

October couldn’t have gone much worse for the Utes, who lost all 4 games during the month. It wasn’t exactly the easiest slate, as they had to play Stanford, USC and a red-hot Arizona State team in 3 consecutive weeks. They then had that clunker on the road against the Ducks. I know that’s not the same Oregon team without starting QB Justin Herbert, but Eugene is never an easy place to get a win.

I think it makes this a really good spot to back the Utes at home in a prime time game against rival UCLA. With Washington State and Washington still on the schedule, this is one Utah can’t afford to lose if they want to make a bowl for a 4th straight year. I expect the very best the Utes have to offer.

I can’t say the same for UCLA, who I think are just going through the motions to close out 2017 in what’s almost a sure thing to be the final year under head coach Jim Mora. The Bruins are also winless on the road at 0-4 with the average loss away from home coming by more than 16 points/game.

I also like the matchup here for the Utes, who have struggled to get their running game going. That won’t be a problem against this UCLA defense, which comes in 130th out of 130 FBS teams against the run, giving up a ridiculous 307.1 ypg. Factor in the short week of rest and playing on the road for a second straight week in one of the more difficult places to play and I think that Bruins defense gets exposed early and often.

UCLA’s offense can put up points, but I just don’t see the Bruins scoring enough here to keep this game close. Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 52.9% of their pass attempts when Utah is playing at home and UCLA relies as much as any team in the country on their pass attack. Give me the Utes -6.5! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Idaho +18) 

After a long hard look at this one, I think we are getting too much value here with Idaho as a 18-point dog. The Vandals are a much better team than their 3-5 record would suggest, as they have had some bad breaks in close games against good teams. I expect their best effort here against Troy, who is still getting love from the books for that improbable win on the road over LSU. 

The Trojans have had a horrible time covering spreads a big reason for that is the books keep inflating their lines. Troy is just 2-8 against the number in their last 10 games and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. Vandals on the other hand are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall,  8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games and 4-0 in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record. Give me Idaho +18! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Temple +8) 

I just don’t think Temple is getting near enough respect in this matchup. People were down on the Owls to start with, as they lost head coach Matt Rhule to Baylor. They made a good hire in Geof Collins, but only had 10 starters back. They got blownout at Notre Dame and USF during a 2-2 start and I think a lot of people wrote them off.

They have been competitive ever since that loss to the Bulls. They lost by 7 against Houston as a 11.5-point dog and followed it up with a 34-10 win at ECU as a slim 3.5-point favorite. Then came a 24-28 loss as a 10-point favorite against UCONN and the most recent defeat at Army. A big positive sign in those games is they outgained ECU by 236, Connecticut by 225 and Army by 117. This team is trending in the right direction and will surely be fired up in a nationally televised home night game on ESPN.

Another factor here that I like with Temple is they are going to be ready for Navy’s triple-option attack. They have essentially been practicing for this specific offense the past 3 weeks, as they played Army’s triple-option attack prior to their bye. The Owls also showed some very encouraging signs against the option when they played Army. They limited the Black Knights to 248 yards, which might seem like a lot, but that’s more than125 yards under Army’s average coming into that game, which was 378.4 ypg.

If they can have similar success against Navy, who enters leading the country at 376.1 ypg, they not only can keep this within the number, but win the game outright. That’s because Temple’s offense should have no problem moving the ball on Navy’s defense. The Midshipmen are 76th against the run, giving up 174.7 ypg and 82nd against the pass, allowing 235.6 ypg.

Owls starting quarterback Logan Marchi is out, but backup Frank Nutile was impressive in his place, throwing for 290 yards, while completing 20 of 29 attempts. I got no problem here if Nutile has to start this game and he might actually be the better option. While Marchi had thrown for 300+ in each of his previous two starts, he’s also got 8 interceptions in his last 4 starts.

Temple is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 vs teams who struggle in the passing game, averaging 150 or fewer yards/game. They are also 8-1 ATS vs teams what bad pass defenses, allowing their opponents to complete 58% or more of their attempts. Finally, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning record. Give me the Owls +8!

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Clemson -14) 

I know this looks like a big number for the Tigers to be laying against a Georgia Tech team that has played well so far this season. I just don’t think it’s going to be near enough for the Yellow Jackets to cover. Rarely do you want to be on the trendy underdog pick and that’s exactly what we have here with over 60% of the bets coming in on the Yellow Jackets.

I think it’s going to get ugly in a hurry Saturday night. This isn’t the first prime time night game on Saturday that Clemson has played. The previous two have been over shortly after they started and those were on the road. The Tigers had a 33-7 lead in a 47-21 win at Louisville and were up 24-3 going into the 4th quarter at Virginia Tech.

I think the only way Georgia Tech makes a game of this is if Clemson were to not show up to play and that’s just not going to happen after the loss to Syracuse. This is a statement game for the Tigers and a really bad matchup for the Yellow Jackets.

It’s no secret that the Yellow Jackets need to be able to run the ball to have success with the triple-option attack. Clemson has elite talent on the defensive line that’s going to make life miserable for Georgia Tech. Keep in mind they got a lot of the same guys back from last year’s unit that held the Yellow Jackets to 124 total yards (only allowed 95 rushing yards on 38 attempts). That’s going to keep Georgia Tech from eating up the clock with long drives and allow the Tigers offense to go to work and they won’t leave any doubt after losing to the Orange.

The Yellow Jackets are 0-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons when facing an elite defense that is giving up 310 or fewer yards/game and the Tigers are 18-9 ATS in their last 27 games vs a team that averages 200+ rushing yards/game. Give me the Tigers -14! 

40* NCAAF BIG MONEY ATS SLAUGHTER (Purdue -4.5) 

I know the Boilermakers laid an egg last week on the road against Rutgers, but that only makes me like them more in this spot. Purdue is one of the most improved teams in the country under first year head coach Jeff Brohm and Nebraska might be one of the most overrated.

If you look at the box score from last week’s game against the Scarlet Knights, you will see the better team lost that game. Purdue had 474 total yards to Rutgers 217 and a 25 to 8 edge in first downs. This is a team that on the season is outgaining opponents by nearly 17 yards/game. A big improvement over last year when they were outgained on average by 100 yards/game.

I’m well aware that the Cornhuskers are coming off a bye. I just don’t think it’s going to matter. Mike Riley isn’t a good fit for this program and it’s only a matter of time before he’s out the door. That’s a tough situation for everyone involved and my two-cents is that it will be UCF head coach Scott Frost in Lincoln for the 2018 season.

What can’t be overlooked here is the time this game is being played. Night games come with a whole different atmosphere and more times than not it’s a big advantage for the home team. I expect that to be the case here, as this is as excited the Boilermaker fan base has been about their football program in over a decade.

It’s also not just motivation and coaching that has me like Purdue in this spot. I love the matchup here. Purdue’s offense is better than people think. They had the fluke game last week where they had just 12 points on nearly 500 yards and a combined 19 against two of the best defenses in the country in Michigan and Wisconsin. Nebraska ranks 70th or worse against both the run and the pass.

I also don’t think people realize how good this Purdue defense has been. The Boilermakers are 49th in the country, allowing just 369 ypg. That’s not even the most impressive stat. They are allowing a mere 19.3 ppg against teams that are scoring on average 31.8 ppg. Give me the Boilermakers -4.5!

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Indiana -4.5)

I think the value here is clearly with the Hoosiers laying less than a touchdown against Maryland. You could make a pretty strong argument that Indiana is the best 3-4 team in the country. Their 4 losses have come against Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan and Michigan State, who are a combined 24-4 on the season.

They were also competitive in all of those games. They had 2nd half leads against everyone but Penn State and only trailed the Nittany Lions by 14 at the half. Indiana has also taken care of business against lesser opponents, winning 34-17 at Virginia and 52-17 against Georgia Southern.

Maryland started the season with that big road win over Texas, but are just 2-4 since and have lost 3 straight. The Terps looked to be in great shape with two dynamic quarterbacks, but both suffered season-ending injuries and while 3rd stringer Max Bortenschlager has been serviceable, he’s also completing just 49.3% of his attempts and lacks the running threat that made the top two guys on the depth chart so good.

I just don’t see the Terrapins being able to generate enough offense here against a very good Indiana defense. I’ve already mentioned some of the elite teams that Indiana has played and that only makes it that much more impressive that they are sitting 29th in the country in total defense, allowing just 342 yards/game. In comparison, Maryland is 106th giving up 439 yards/game.

There is a slight concern here with the fact that Indiana is coming off such a heartbreaking loss, but I think the fact that they are still searching for their first Big Ten win of the season is going to have them locked in from the start in this one. Give me the Hoosiers -4.5!

100* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR (Washington -17) 

I absolutely love this spot for the Huskies. Washington had won 5 straight by at least 27 points before that shocking 7-13 loss to Arizona State. With the Sun Devils crushing Utah on the road last week, that doesn't look so bad. I think more than anything the Huskies were caught sleeping and ASU came to play at home in a night game. 

I look for Washington to bounce back in a big way at home against the Bruins. UCLA is not a good team and while they come in off what looks like an impressive 31-14 win over Oregon, the Ducks are complete mess right now with Herbert sidelined. Clearly if they only put up 14 on this horrible Bruins defense. 

Washington defense was still top notch in the loss to Arizona State and have not allowed more than 14 points in a game this season. UCLA hasn't seen a defense anywhere close to as talented as the Huskies and I think they struggle to put points on the board. 

As for the Huskies offense, I expect them to put up a big number here, which is why I got no problem laying the 17 points. UCLA has allowed 40+ points in 4 of their 7 games and are giving up an average of 51 ppg on the road. 

All of this and I haven't even mentioned the advantage Washington has coming off a bye. An extra week for Chris Petersen and his staff to get his team ready should have this one over in a hurry. Give me the Huskies -17! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Ohio St -6) 

I’m going to lay the points with the Buckeyes in this one. Ohio State hasn’t suffered too many losses since Urban Meyer took over back in 2012. In fact, they have been beat just 7 times and that includes the earlier loss to Oklahoma. They only time they have suffered multiple losses in the same season is when they have lost their bowl game.

When you rarely lose, you don’t forget about the times you do and that loss to the Nittany Lions last year is fresh in the minds of these Ohio State players. I think the Buckeyes are coming into this contest to make a statement, much like Penn State did this past week against the Wolverines.

You also can’t discount the edge Ohio State has coming off a bye. Meyer is one of the elite coaches in the country and great coaches know how to use that extra time to prepare to their advantage. In his career as a head coach, Meyer’s teams are 24-8 ATS after a bye week.

That just really puts Penn State behind the 8-ball, as they got to somehow find a way to match the intensity they had last week at home against Michigan. Something that’s not easy to do away from home and it’s a spot where James Franklin coached teams have struggled. In his time here with Penn State and with Vanderbilt, teams coached by Franklin are just 2-10 ATS in road games when playing against a top level team that’s won more than 75% of their games.

I just think the home crowd combined with the extra time to prepare is going to make it hard for Penn State to keep this game close. Ohio State has looked like a completely different team since losing to Oklahoma and they have the talent up front to quiet Heisman hopeful Saquon Barkley. The Buckeyes are allowing 2.9 yards/carry on the season and that’s against teams that are averaging 5.0 yards/carry. They are also rushing for 1.4 yards/carry more than what their opponent is allowing on average. If the Nittany Lions aren’t careful, this could get ugly. Give me the Buckeyes -6! 

50* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH (Florida +14.5) 

I liked Florida even when this line was less than 2 touchdowns, but now that we are getting two touchdowns and the hook, I can't pass up on the value here with the Gators.

I know Georgia has been playing lights out and Florida has been a bit of a mess this year with all the injuries and players getting suspended. You just can't underestimate the underdog in a huge rivalry like this. Last time we had a double-digit favorite in the series was 2014, when Georgia was laying 11.5. Florida won that game 38-20. 

The biggest key here is think the Gators defense can keep the Bulldogs offense in check. For the most part the Bulldogs have been able to just run the ball down the throats of the opposition. The only time they weren't able to was against Notre Dame and they managed just 19 points. I think there's a good chance they keep Georgia under 21 and that means we just need Florida to muster up a mere 7 points to give us a great shot at the cover. Note that the Gators have scored at least 20 in each of the last 4 games in the series. 

While both teams are off a bye, it's worth noting that Florida is 6-1 ATS last 7 when they get two weeks to prepare for the opposition. They are also 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games when coming off a conference loss by 7 points or less. Give me the Gators +14.5! 

50* AMERICAN ATHLETIC GAME OF THE MONTH (Tulane +11)

I would ride the hot hand and back the Green Wave getting 10.5-points against the Tigers. Tulane didn’t look great early last week at home against USF, but you have to love how this team continued to fight. They turned a 27-point deficit into a 1-score game in the final minutes of the 4th quarter. I think they bring that same fight here against a ranked Memphis team.

With a 6-1 record and win over UCLA, I understand why the Tigers are ranked in the Top 25, but I don’t think this team is one of the 25 best in the country. In fact, Memphis is a few bad breaks away from potentially having a losing record. They got 3 wins by 6-points or less and another by just 8 at home against ULM. The best team they have faced is UCF and they lost by 27 on the road.

I not only think Tulane can keep it close, but an outright win isn’t out of the question. Tulane’s defense didn’t look good against USF, but a lot of that had to do with the play of star quarterback Quinton Flowers and his ability to turn a broken play into a big gain. While Memphis has a quality QB in Riley Ferguson, he doesn’t provide that same threat on the ground.

Ferguson and the Tigers come in with the 10th ranked passing attack at 333.4 ypg, but will face a talented Tulane secondary that ranks 29th against the pass, giving up 190.6 ypg. Keep in mind they are allowing less than 200 yards with giving up 434 yards through the air in one game against Oklahoma.

On the other side of the ball, there’s reason to believe the Green Wave can have success. Tulane has the 12th ranked rushing offense at 266.0 ypg and will be up against a Memphis defense that ranks 109th against the run, allowing 212.7 ypg. Look for the Green Wave to play keep away from the Tigers offense by grinding out long possessions. That should allow them to keep this came close and it makes those points that much more valuable. Give me the Green Wave +11! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Duke -8) 

I think we are actually getting value here with the Blue Devils, as I think they should be closer two a two touchdown favorite. This is the perfect time to jump back on Duke, who enters having lost 3 straight and failed to cover in all 3. They were a lot more competitive than the final looked in a 31-6 defeat to Miami at home. They then lost by 7 on the road against an improved Virginia team and underrated Florida State team. 

I think Duke is a lot closer to the top half of the league than people think. Keep in mind they rolled Northwestern at home 41-17. Pitt on the other hand is near the bottom half of the league this season. They are just 2-5 and the two wins have come against Rice and Youngstown St. They just lost by 18 at home to NC State and are also without starting quarterback Max Browne, who was one of the bright spots offensively, completing 71% of his attempts. 

Even when Browne was playing well the offense has not been anything close to what we saw a year ago under coordinator Matt Canada. He left for LSU and Pitt's only game this season with more than 30 points is against Rice, who is 114th in scoring defense (36.3 ppg). Backup quarterbacks Ben Dinucci and Kenny Pickett have both looked bad.

That's not good as this Duke defense isn't going to let them run the ball. The Blue Devils rank 16th in the nation against the run, giving up just 108.0 ypg. Pitts defense isn't good enough to be on the field the entire game. Give me Duke -8! 

100* NCAAF REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR (FSU -7) 

This might seem like a big number for FSU to be laying, even at home, against a team that beat them by 43 points last year. However, it’s that embarrassing loss last season that has me siding with the Seminoles in this one.

Keep in mind that win last year came with Florida State ranked #2. That’s also one of the rare times that the Seminoles were on the losing end of a blowout loss. You can bet that FSU has had this one circled on the calendar since the schedule was released.

Louisville got a lot of love coming into the season because of the fact they were returning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson at quarterback. While Jackson has continued to put incredible numbers, the rest of the team has not played up to their potential. Especially the defense, which is giving up almost a touchdown more per game. I mean they just let Boston College of all teams score 45 with 555 yards of total offense and 27 first downs.

I know this isn’t the same Florida State team without Deondre Francois, but there’s still a ton of talent on this team. We are also now in the 5th start for freshman James Blackmon. He showed some flashes and this could be his breakout game against a Cardinals secondary that has allowed 290+ yards four times already this season. They also have allowed 290+ yards on the ground twice, so it’s not like Blackmon will have to do it all.

At the same time, I think we are going to see Florida State’s defense show up in a big way for this one. A lot of the guys who will take the field got it handed to them by Jackson and the Cardinals. They are much improved on that side and come in ranked 28th in the country in total defense. Not to mention we have seen Jackson and the Louisville offense struggle against the better defenses they have faced.

FSU is 13-4-1 ATS after a game where they scored fewer than 20 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU win. Louisville is now 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss. Give me the Seminoles -7! 

50* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Iowa St +7.5)

The decision to hire Matt Campbell is paying off sooner than expected. After going just 3-9 in his first year on the job, Campbell has ISU sitting at 4-2 through their first 6 games and looking every bit the part of a bowl team.

Keep in mind they had a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter of an OT loss at home to Iowa and were right there with Texas at home in their other defeat.

This team is playing with all kinds of confidence right now and I look for them to not only go into Texas Tech and keep it close, but win this game outright.

While ISU is riding a wave of momentum, the Red Raiders will likely have a hard time picking themselves off the mat after blowing that 18-point 2nd half lead against the Mountaineers.

While neither team is great defensively, Iowa State comes in a respectable 42nd in total defense, giving up just 356 ypg (nearly 100 yards less than what they allowed last year). Texas Tech on the other hand is 101st in total defense, giving up 430.5 ypg.

There’s also a great system in play favoring a play on the Cyclones. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a conference win by 10 or more are 48-17 (74%) against the spread when matchup up with an opponent that is coming off a road game where both teams scored 31 or more points.

Iowa State is also a strong 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record, while the Red Raiders are a mere 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs a team that has a winning road record (ISU is 2-0 on the road). Give me the Cyclones +7.5! 

50* NCAAF MOUNTAIN WEST GAME OF THE MONTH (Nevada +7) 

I really like what I have seen out of this Nevada team the past two weeks. It would have been easy for the Wolf Pack to just throw in the towel after their 0-5 start, but they have continued to play well. 

They nearly won outright as a 24-point dog, losing at Colorado State 42-44. A game Nevada has to be wondering how they lost. The Wolfpack had 42 points and a 11-point lead with just over 3 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. They got their first win in their previous game against Hawaii as a 5.5-point dog.

Even though they let one get away against Colorado State, I think the confidence level is high right now. Keep in mind the schedule really didn’t set up well to start the year. They had to open at Northwestern, host a very good Toledo team and play both Washington State and Fresno State on the road.

As for the Falcons, I’m not really sure they deserve to be a near touchdown favorite on the road. Air Force is fortunate to not be 1-5 with their only win over a FCS program, but UNLV was nice enough to blow a 27-point lead. That doesn’t get me excited about this team, who I think is still getting a lot of respect for how good they have been in previous years. The Falcons won 10-games last year and have won 28 over the last 3, but only had 7 starters back for 2017.

My big concern with this team, especially on the road, is their defense. Air Force ranks 126th out of 130 FBS teams against the run, giving up 255.3 ypg. Opposing teams are averaging a ridiculous 6.2 yards/carry. That’s with the Falcons only giving up 55 yards on 28 attempts in their opener against VMI. Nevada’s rushing attack is ranked 100th, but they have topped 200 yards twice this season, including 268 two weeks ago against Hawaii.

This is also a good matchup for the Wolf Pack defensively. Nevada’s secondary has been used and abused this season, as they come in allowing 326.1 ypg (128th). They catch a breather here, as Air Force averages a mere 6 completions a game compared to 62 rushing attempts. The Wolfpack’s run defense isn’t great, but it is giving up less yards/carry than what their opponents are averaging. I think they can make enough stops here to not only keep this close enough to cover, but win the game outright. Give me Nevada +7! 

40* THURSDAY NIGHT SUN BELT ATS KNOCKOUT (Lafayette +13) 

The Ragin' Cajuns aren't going to take to kindly to being a double-digit dog against a team they beat last year at home as an underdog. Mark Hudspeth is in year seven with this team and doesn't get near the respect he deserves. Lafayette has a big scheduling edge here, as they last played last Thursday and Arkansas State played on Saturday. That extra time to recover and prepare are huge this time of year. I also don't think the Red Wolves should be laying this many points with how bad they are defensively. They come in giving up 449 yards/game and 6.1 yards/play. On the flip side of this, Lafayette's defense has really turned it on the last two weeks. I think they keep this close and wouldn't be shocked if the won outright. Give me the Ragin' Cajuns +13! 

50* PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Oregon +10.5) 

The Ducks are worth a look here as a double-digit underdog against the Cardinal. Sometimes it’s a star player like Stanford’s Bryce Love that can lead to the entire team being overvalued. I think that’s exactly what is happening here.

At the same time, I think now is the time to jump on Oregon after an embarrassing loss at home to Washington State. It will be hard for the public to back the Ducks given how much the offense struggled in the first game without starting quarterback Justin Herbert.

What can be overlooked is how good that Washington State defense is playing. The Cougars are 11th in the country, giving up 275.5 ypg and are exceptional in the secondary, holding teams to just 146.3 ypg. That makes it really hard to play catch up like Oregon was forced to do in that game.

Stanford is known for being a program that excels on the defensive side of the ball. You have to go back to 2006 to find the last time they allowed more than 28 ppg on this side of the ball. While they currently rank 55th, allowing 24.5 ppg, they have given up 42 to USC and 34 to UCLA. The more concerning numbers are that they rank 91st in the country against the run (182 ypg) and 101st against the pass (251.8 ypg).

Prior to getting completely shutdown by Washington State, Oregon was averaging 537.5 yards/game. Even after the poor showing they still come in 19th in rushing (239.3 ypg) and 50th in passing (254.7 ypg). The thing to keep in mind is the reason they had to start a true freshman against the Cougars, is their top two guys both got hurt the game before. While Herbert is still out, his backup Taylor Alie has been cleared to play. Alie has looked good when he’s got to play. He came in and completed 9 of 13 for 41 yards and also rushed 3 times for 17 yards. I think we see the Ducks offense return to form in this one.

As for Oregon’s defense and stopping Love, I think they can at least slow them down. Considering how bad the Ducks were defensively last year, it will probably surprise a lot of people to learn that they are currently 10th in the nation, holding teams to just 93.7 ypg. Teams are averaging just 2.7 yards/carry. Last week against Utah’s defense, which came into that game only giving up 87 ypg and 2.6 yards/carry, Love totaled just 152 yards on 20 attempts.

Add in the fact that these rivalry games can go either way and the Ducks with big time revenge, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Oregon win this game outright. Give me the Ducks +10.5!

40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT ATS BLOODBATH (Arizona St +17.5)

We are getting big time value here with the Sun Devils as a 3-score underdog at home against the Huskies. Playing at home under the lights is special against any opponent. The atmosphere really gets amped in these games when it’s against a team like Washington that is the defending conference champion and sitting undefeated at No. 5 in the country. 

The reason you don’t hear much about the Huskies in the media, is because they are one of the few highly ranked teams that haven’t played anybody. The schedule so far includes Rutgers, Montana, Fresno State, Colorado, Oregon State and Cal. Those 3 conference opponents are currently a combined 0-9 in league play and a Rutgers team they struggled with in the opener just lost 56-0 to Ohio State.

I’m not saying Washington isn’t a good team, I just think they are getting way too much respect here. The fact they are a Top 5 team and have covered 3 straight, the public will be on them here, which is why we are getting a line that I feel is all most a touchdown too high.

Arizona State might have a losing record at 2-3, but there 3 losses have come against San Diego State, Texas Tech and Stanford, all of which are currently ranked in the Top 25. The big key is they were competitive in each of those games. They also have a big win over Oregon, who came in ranked at the time they beat them.

The defense for Washington has put up some great numbers, but a lot of that has to do with who they have played. Three of their opponents rank outside the Top 100 in total offense and that’s not include the FCS opponent they faced. What they did to Cal last week was impressive, but they caught the Golden Bears in a horrible spot, as they just had nothing left after playing their previous 3 against Ole Miss, USC and Oregon.

I’m confident that the Sun Devils will be able to move the ball against this Washington defense. Arizona State ranks 23rd in the country in passing at 297.4 ypg and just rushed for more than 200 yards last week against Stanford. At the same time, I think the defense can hold their own against a Huskies offense that hasn’t exactly lit up the scoreboard as much as you would expect against that cupcake schedule.

Add in the fact that Arizona State is coming off a bye and I think we could see an outright win here by the Sun Devils. Note they are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 off a road cover where they lost as an underdog and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games with 2+ weeks to prepare for an opponent. Give me the Sun Devils +17.5! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Cincinnati +24) 

Cincinnati is worth a look here as a huge underdog against the Bulls. USF couldn't be more overvalued right now. The Bulls come in ranked No. 18 in the country with a perfect 5-0 record and have covered 3 straight. During this stretch they beat Illinois by 24 as a 16.5-point favorite, Temple by 36  as a 17.5-point favorite and ECU by 30 as a 21.5-point favorite. 

You might have noticed something, all of those wins where they covered in blowout fashion have come against some awful teams. Illinois is arguably the worst team in the Big Ten, Temple is a mess without Matt Rhule in charge and East Carolina has 4 losses by 20 or more points, including a 20-point loss to James Madison in their opener. USF's other two games are against San Jose State and Stony Brook. As you can see, the Bulls have played nobody good. To back this point even more, the teams USF has played this season are only averaging 3.1 yards/carry and completing 52.2% of their passes. 

Now the Bearcats aren't a great team by any stretch of the imagination, but they are hands down the best team USF has faced this season. The fact that's it's been so easy for the Bulls to this point is going to make it hard for them to give Cincinnati the respect they deserve. I think the Bearcats sneak up on the South Florida and make this a hard fought game that isn't decided for good until the 4th quarter.  Give me the Bearcats +24! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Purdue +17)

I have really liked what I have seen from Purdue in the first year under head coach Jeff Brohm and fully expect them to give Wisconsin all they can handle on Saturday.

The Boilermakers matched last year’s win total with their win and cover over Minnesota at home. A game they managed to win despite posting a -2 turnover margin. They have shown they are more than capable hanging with the top teams, as they were in it until the end against Louisville and had a 2nd half lead against Michigan. Their two other wins at home against Ohio by 23 and at Missouri by 32 are also impressive. I don’t think it’s asking a lot for them to keep it within 17 against the Badgers.

The thing with Wisconsin is they have played a very easy schedule to this point. Not a single one of their opponents they have beat currently has a winning record. They have especially had it easy on the defensive side of the ball, as 4 of their 5 opponents rank in bottom 50 in total offense and the lone exception is FAU, who has padded their offensive stats against some bad teams of late.

The biggest thing you need to be able to do to move the ball on the Badgers is be able to throw the ball, as you just aren’t going to run it down their throats with much success. Purdue ranks 40th in the nation in passing at 265.2 ypg. I think the Boilermakers are going to catch Wisconsin off guard and put together some scoring drives to keep this close.

The other big thing here is while it’s not elite, the Boilermakers defense has played well given they have played a pretty tough schedule so far. Purdue is holding teams almost a full yard under their average per play. In comparison, Wisconsin is giving up 4.4 yards/play against teams that average 4.5.

Wisconsin’s offense isn’t anything to get excited about. I know the numbers are decent, but the best defense they have faced statistically is Nebraska and that Cornhuskers defense isn’t anything to write home about. They gave nearly 500 yards and 36 points to Arkansas State and 42 points and 566 yards to Oregon. Purdue should be able to hold their own here and force the Badgers to work to get the ball in the end zone.

Wisconsin is 0-6 ATS under head coach Paul Chryst in home games off a cover as a double-digit favorite and Purdue is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games off a game against a conference opponent. Give me the Boilermakers +17!

40* S ALABAMA/TROY ATS KNOCKOUT (South Alabama +17) 

This line has been inflated on Troy with the Trojans coming in off that big win over LSU. Keep in mind that South Alabama was only a 11.5-point dog at Louisiana Tech in their last game. While they didn’t cover, they could have won that game outright had they been a little more efficient in the redone.

The fact that both teams didn’t play this past weekend, also favors the Jaguars and this big spread. Both teams have had plenty of time to prepare for the opponent, which typically leads to a lower-scoring game. The less scoring there is, the greater the chance South Alabama keeps this within the number.

Another key here is that I think the Jaguars are better than their record would indicate. You certainly can’t blame them for losing at Ole Miss and at home to Oklahoma State. Same thing with their loss at Louisiana Tech. I like what Joey Jones is doing here and expect this team to come out and lay it all on the line in one of the rare times they get to play in a nationally televised game.

Troy is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team that has a losing road record. Factor in that each of the last 4 meetings between these two teams have been decided by 14 or less and I think the smart play here is to take the points. Give me the Jaguars +17! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY NO BRAINER (Purdue -4) 

I’ve been really impressed with how much better Purdue is playing on both sides of the ball in the first year under head coach Jeff Brohm. The Boilermakers only two losses are against Louisville and Michigan and they had a chance to win both of those games. They cruised to a 44-21 win over an Ohio team that’s one of the favorites to win the MAC and dismantled Missouri 35-3 on the road.

While I’m also a big fan of Fleck at Minnesota, I think the Gophers were getting a little too much respect because of that hire. It certainly felt that way after watching them lose outright at home to a Maryland team that was down to 3rd string quarterback Max Bortenschlager.

I know this team started out 3-0, but the competition wasn’t all that challenging. Buffalo is a bottom-tier team out of the MAC, Oregon State’s only win in 2017 is a 3-point victory at home to Portland State and Middle Tennessee looks nothing like the team that won 8 games last year.

Minnesota is really struggling on the offensive side of the ball. They come in ranked 93rd in the country at just 368 ypg. That’s against opponents that on average are allowing 396 ypg. Purdue ranks similarly overall at 80th in total offense at 392 ypg, but are exceeding exceptions, as their opponents on average have only allowed 344 ypg. If not for that game against Michigan, the Boilermakers would have a lot better offensive numbers.

It’s not just the offense that is excelling early. Purdue is holding opponents to just 3.7 yards/carry on the ground, which is about 1.3 yards under what those teams are averaging. That’s important to note, because Minnesota’s offense is really built on their ground game. The Gophers are 58th in rushing (180.8 ypg) compared to just 100th in passing (187.0 ypg).

Another huge factor here that can’t be overlooked is that Purdue is coming off a bye. In his 3 seasons with Western Kentucky, he posted an impressive 5-1 record off a bye week. He was also 8-2 off a loss. A spot we already saw Purdue excel in earlier this season, in their win over Ohio after losing a heartbreaker to Louisville. I think the Boilers could turn this into a bit of a blowout, making this an easy call for me with laying the 4.5. Give me the Boilermakers -4! 

100* ACC (Side) GAME OF THE YEAR (Pittsburgh +3.5) 

I would have to take the field goal here with the Panthers, as I actually think Pitt should be favored in this game. Syracuse is getting a lot of love for close losses to LSU and NC State. That close call against LSU looks a lot worse after the Tigers just lost to Troy outright. They also caught the Wolfpack at the perfect time, as they were fresh off their win over FSU and had another huge game on deck at Louisville in just 4 days.

The win over Central Michigan isn’t anything to get excited about, as the Chippewas just lost by 20 to BC. What really concerns me about the Orange is the loss to Middle Tennessee, who has really struggled in 2017. They just lost by 18 to FAU and their only other win was by just 11 points against an awful Bowling Green squad.

I wasn’t the least bit surprised to see Pittsburgh roll Rice last week. The Panthers had an absolutely brutal first 4 games on the schedule. They opened with Youngstown State, who played in the FCS Championship Game a year ago. They then had to go on the road to face Penn State, host Oklahoma State, both of which were ranked in the Top 10 at the time. After that they had a road game against arguably the most underrated team in the country in Georgia Tech.

I know the talent has changed for both sides, but keep in mind that Pittsburgh was a 24-point favorite against Syracuse in last year’s meeting. I believe had these two teams opened the season against each other, Pittsburgh definitely would have been favored and maybe by even a touchdown. Now they are getting 3.5-points, as they continue be undervalued after their poor start. A win over Rice isn’t going to change that.

Syracuse is only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs a team with a losing record and a mere 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home. Underdog is also 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two schools. Give me the Panthers +3.5! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Duke +2.5) 

The fact that Virginia is coming off a bye and in their last game handed Boise State their worst home loss in more than 15 years, I think the public will be drawn to laying less than a field goal at home with the Cavaliers, especially with Duke off that ugly showing at home against Miami.

That has me looking the other direction and taking Duke, who I gladly would have taken as a dog prior to their loss to Miami. The final score doesn’t look great against the Hurricanes, but the Blue Devils were more than competitive in that game and were only outlined by 60 yards. Duke had the ball inside the Miami 20 three times in the first half and came away with two field goals.

That’s a very good Hurricanes team that returned 15 starters, is now in year two under Mark Right and added in Notre Dame transfer Malik Rosier at quarterback. This is still the same team that dominated Northwestern, Baylor and North Carolina in their previous 3 games.

Virginia’s offense is built around their passing attack, which ranks 17th in the country at 312.3 ypg. The problem is they don’t have much of a running game. This Duke defense is the real deal. They come in ranked 14th in the country in total defense, giving up just 291 yards/game. The most impressive stat being they are holding their opponents close 85 yards under their season average. Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 48.3% of their passes, which is more than 10% under what their opponents are averaging (60.4%).

The Cavaliers defense has played well so far in 2017, but the highest ranked offense they have faced in terms of yards/game is UConn, which is 31st, but have played two awful defenses in ECU and SMU. The other two FBS foes for Virginia were Indiana, who ranks 81st and Boise State, who ranks 101st.

Duke is 43rd in the country and that’s with having faced four Power 5 opponents. The strength of their offense being a rushing attack that ranks 29th at 218.2 ypg. Virginia have up over 200 yards on the ground to UConn a fews week back and I see them struggling here. Another thing with the Blue Devils offense is they are great with ball control, as they come in averaging more than 35 minutes in time of possession.

Duke is an impressive 15-5 ATS under David Cutcliffe in games where they are listed anywhere from +3 to -3 on the spread. The Blue Devils are also 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games in the month of October, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 off a loss by more than 20 points and11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games. Give me the Blue Devils +2.5! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Wake Forest +22.5) 

Any doubt the public had with this Clemson team was thrown out the window in their convincing win on the road over Virginia Tech. They will look to back this team no matter the price and this a great spot to take advantage of an inflated line on the Tigers. 

Clemson is going to have a hard time bringing that same intensity against the Demon Deacons, as they did last week against the Hokies on the road in a prime time night game. I think that's a big mistake, as this Wake Forest team is playing really well under Dave Clawson. They are 4-1 with their only loss coming to Florida State, where the Seminoles scored the game winning touchdown with less than a minute to play. What will get overlooked in that final is the fact that Wake outgained FSU by almost a 100 yards (367-270). 

This is Clemson's homecoming, but I think that only adds to the distractions for the Tigers and has them not 100% locked in on the task at hand. It's a spot they have struggled with in the past as well. Keep in mind Clemson was tied 7-7 with BC at home two weeks ago and Wake Forest rolled the Eagles by 24 in an earlier meeting this season. I think this is a game throughout and we easily cover here. Give me the Demon Deacons +22.5! 

50* NCAAF BIG TEN GAME OF THE MONTH (Iowa -17) 

This might seem like a lot of points to be laying on Iowa considering they have scored fewer than 20 points in each of their last two games. However, that was against two of the best defenses in the country. Penn State is currently ranked 13th in total defense, allowing just 289.2 ypg and Michigan State is 5th giving up only 248.3 ypg.

Look for the Hawkeyes offense to get back on track against an Illinois defense that comes in 99th in the country, allowing 427.5 ypg. They are equally bad against both the run and the pass. The Illini rank 92nd in run defense (179.5 ypg) and 94th in pass defense (248.0 ypg). Iowa should be able to move the chains with their rushing attack and hit some big plays down the field via play action to really break this thing open.

I also think this is a great matchup for Iowa’s defense, as Illinois clearly has some problems if they are only scoring 6-points at home off a bye against a pretty average Nebraska defense. There’s 130 FBS teams and the Illini ranks 113th in rushing (106 ypg) and 114th in passing (161.3 ypg). The Hawkeyes defensive front should have a field day in this game and I wouldn’t be shocked if Iowa shutout the Illinois for a second straight year.

It’s also worth pointing out that I think this is a great spot to back Iowa, who aren’t going to be overlooking Illinois off back-to-back losses. They have to feel like this is one they have to win and that’s the mindset we are looking for when it comes to covering a big spread like this. This is also homecoming for Iowa, so we can expect a packed house at Kinnick on Saturday.

Hawkeyes are an impressive 33-13 ATS under Ferentz off a road loss and 16-5 ATS after two straight games where they failed to rush for at least 100 yards. Illinois on the other hand is 8-22 ATS in their last 30 off two straight losses by 17 or more points. Give me Iowa -17! 

50* NCAAF NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Boise St -7.5) 

The Broncos will be returning from their bye week looking to bounce back from an ugly 23-42 loss at home to Virginia as a 14-point favorite. Boise State is just 1-2-1 ATS with the only cover coming in their heartbreaking 44-47 overtime loss at Washington State, where they blew a 31-10 lead with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. BYU comes in off a 24-40 loss to Utah State last Friday, failing to yet again as a 1.5-point favorite. The Cougars have lost 4 straight overall since beating Portland State in their opener and are 0-5 ATS.

BYU is broken right now and I just don’t know how you can back this team with any confidence. Boise State on the other hand has at least shown me something with that performance against Washington State, which looks a heck of a lot better after the Cougars upset USC.

BYU’s offense has been atrocious and that’s putting it nicely. There’s a 130 FBS teams and they rank 116h in rushing (104.0 ypg) and 118th in passing (152.6 ypg). It doesn’t figure to get any better. Starting quarterback Tanner Magnum is out indefinitely with an ankle injury and backup Beau Hoge is questionable with a head injury.

Not only is the offense struggling to get first downs, but they aren’t protecting the football. They have 12 turnovers in their last 3 games, including 7 last week against Utah State. It doesn't figure to get any better as they are down to 3rd string QB Koy Detmer, who was 7 of 20 for 91 yards and 0 TDs and 3 INTs in relief of Hoge last week.

This Boise State defense is a heck of lot better than what the Aggies brought to the table. Their strength being their run defense, which ranks 30th in the country, giving up just 115.8 ypg. If they can keep BYU’s running game in check, it’s hard to piece together how the Cougars are going to be able to sustain drives and put points on the board.

I also like that we are getting the Broncos off an embarrassing loss to Virginia. That one couldn’t have set well with the players. You can bet head coach Bryan Harsin had their full attention in practice over the bye week. This Boise State team has to be itching to get back on the field and put something positive together before their big game next week at San Diego State. As a head coach at Boise State and Arkansa State, Harsin’s teams have gone 7-2 SU after a bye. They are also 9-3 SU off a loss. I’m confident the trends continue and the Broncos leave Provo with a double-digit victory. Give me Boise State -7.5! 

40* LOUISVILLE/NC STATE BOOKIE ATS KNOCKOUT (NC State +4.5)

There’s no question that NC State has had this game circled on the calendar. Not only do they get a chance to go up against a Heisman winner, but they want revenge from that 41-point embarrassment last year.

It will be hard for the public to ignore that outcome and not lay the small number here with the Cardinals. I just don’t think this Louisville team is on the same level as last year. They struggled in a neutral site game against an improved, but still bottom of the pack Purdue team. They also trailed a down Tar Heels team 27-28 going into the 4th and got dismantled at home by Clemson.

This Wolfpack team has been looking up at FSU and Clemson for years, but the fan base continues to come out and support them with all they got. It’s why it’s never a sure thing when a team makes the trip to Carter-Finley, even when the Wolfpack are down. They aren’t down this year and you can count on an electric home crowd in this one. That’s going to have that NC State defense flying around the field and they need all 11 in full pursuit to keep Jackson in check.

I know the Wolfpack don’t have the overall talent on defense as Clemson, but both teams are built around dominant defensive lines and the Tigers front four really made life miserable for Jackson earlier this season. I think Bradley Chubb, Kentavius Street, BJ Hill and Justin Jones wreak havoc here and keep Jackson from having one of those video game type performances.

I also think with so much attention on Jackson, people are going to overlook the NC State offense and the fact that they should have a ton of success here against a Louisville defense that has struggled against better competition. The Wolfpack feature a balanced attack that comes in ranked 33rd in the country at 461.

The key matchup here being NC State’s 24th ranked passing attack (293.0 ypg) going up against Louisville’s 53rd ranked pass defense. That’s with the Cardinals holding Kent State and Murray State to a combined 72 passing yards in their previous two games. Prior to that they had allowed 293 passing yards to Purdue, 384 to UNC and 316 to Clemson.

I just feel that this line is based too much off what we saw last year and not the direction these two teams are heading. While I advise taking the points, I don’t hate a little extra action on the money line. Give me NC State +4.5! 

40* LATE NIGHT NCAAF ATS BAILOUT (Colorado +7.5) 

I was on Colorado in their loss last week at Washington and they were in it up until the 4th quarter. The offense just couldn't do enough and had 3 costly turnovers. That offense won't have any problem moving the ball against UCLA, who has been nothing short of atrocious on the defensive side of the ball this year. The Bruins just gave up 58 points and 553 yards to a Stanford offense that is as one dimensional as they come right now. 

Through the first 4 weeks, UCLA ranks 130th against the run, giving up a ridiculous 307.5 ypg. They are also 55th against the pass, allowing 217.3 ypg. There's no reason this team should be laying more than a touchdown against a quality team like Colorado with how they play defense. I actually think there's a really good chance the Buffaloes win this game outright. 

The Bruins get respect because of Josh Rosen and their passing attack, but Colorado just held Jake Browning to 160 yards on a mere 11 of 21 passing. I like the defense for the Buffaloes, which is quietly sitting 40th in the country, giving up 341.8 ypg. Give me Colorado +7.5! 

50* SEC SHARP MONEY GAME OF THE MONTH (Texas A&M -7.5) 

 I think a lot of people will see this matchup and see some value in almost getting double-digits with South Carolina. Part of that being they don’t quite trust Texas A&M after what happened against UCLA and the other being we have seen the Gamecocks pull off a big upset against a good team with that 35-28 victory over NC State in their opener.

I know we are only in Week 5, but this is not the same South Carolina team that we saw upset the Wolfpack and win big on the road at Missouri. The Gamecocks have been hit hard with the injury bug. None bigger than the loss of wide out and return specialist Deebo Samuel. He had 3 touchdowns in the win over NC State, including a 97-yard kickoff return for a score. He scored twice in a span of 15 seconds in their game against Missouri, turning a 0-10 deficit into a 14-10 lead.

Keep in mind that even with his help early on, the Gamecocks come into this game with the 101st ranked offense in the country, averaging just 350.3 yards/game. Let’s also not forget they were not the better team in their win over NC State, as the Wolfpack outgained them 504 to 246 with a 29-12 edge in first downs.

Clearly the offense isn’t in good shape if they can go 3 quarters and not score a point against a Louisiana Tech team from C-USA. As bad as Texas A&M’s defense looked last week against the Razorbacks, I think they will be able to slow down this South Carolina attack.

Samuel isn’t the only key player out. They lost one of their best defensive players in senior linebacker Bryson Allen-Wiliams. They aren’t expected to have starting right tackle Zack Bailey and right guard Cory Helms is questionable. Starting running back Rico Dowdle is also questionable.

I really like the way Texas A&M was able to win last week. That’s got a buzz back into the players and I expect this team to come out fired up for their conference home opener under the lights. True freshman Kellen Mond seems to be figuring out things as well. He threw for 216 yards and 2 scores, while also rushing for a team-high 109 yards in the win over the Razorbacks. I think he has a big day here and the Aggies get up early and pull away for a comfortable win and cover. Give me Texas A&M -7.5! 

50* AMERICAN ATHLETIC GAME OF THE MONTH (UCF -4) 

I really like what Scott Frost has done with this team. Last year was his first season and he took a team that went 0-12 the previous year and got them to a bowl (6-7). For those that don’t know, Frost comes over from Oregon (7 years) and brought with him that fast-tempo offense which they call “UCFast.” I think he’s a top notch coach that will could be moving on to a Power 5 program as soon as next year.

I know the defense caught a break in the game against Maryland, but the offense also did their part, scoring 38 points and racking up 428 total yards. Keep in mind that’s on the road against a Power 5 program and their first game in 3 weeks. I think the fact that the Terps did lose their QB early in that game, takes away from the win, so we aren’t see much of an overreaction here. Plus, that victory fails in comparison to Memphis’ win over UCLA.

I just trust this UCF team a lot more than I do the Tigers. I know it was a letdown spot, but that performance last week against Southern Illinois tells me this isn’t an elite team. Good teams aren’t losing at the half as a 30-point favorite to an FCS school. My biggest concern with Memphis is the defense, which ranks 116th in the country, giving up 483.7 ypg. That’s just not all from the UCLA game, they gave up over 400 yards to ULM in week 1 and 393 last week ago the Salukis.

I have a lot of confidence in that Knights offense being able to move the ball and put up points. I also think they can get some stops defensively here, allowing them to get that separation we are looking for with the cover. Memphis is a talented offensive team, but they have played all 3 of their games at home so far. More times than not, offensive production go down on the road and I’m expecting to see that here.

Even with Maryland’s QB situation, I was impressed with how they were able to shutdown the Terrapins dynamic duo out of the backfield with Lorenzo Harrison and Ty Johnson. The two had just 73 yards on 21 attempts. They had 177 on 23 attempts against Texas. Keep in mind under their new DC, Erik Chandler, the defense only gave up 24.6 ppg and 370 ypg a season ago and this program has historically been strong on that side of the ball.

I think there’s a realistic chance that UCF scores 40+ in this game and wins via a blowout. Give me the Knights -4! 

40* NCAAB BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK (Mich St -4) 

I’m going to take Michigan State minus the points at home over the Iowa Hawkeyes. I think a lot of people could be drawn to Iowa after they nearly upset Penn State in a crushing 19-21 loss at home, while Michigan State lost by 20 at home to Notre Dame. It’s a lot harder to bounce back from a blowout loss than it is a gut-wrenching defeat like the Hawkeyes suffered last week.  

You also have to factor in how big of a game that was and it being a nationally televised night game. That’s was Iowa’s chance to prove to everyone they are for real and they let the opportunity slip by. 

I’m not saying Michigan State wasn’t equally up for their home game against Notre Dame last week. I just like the fact we have a Mark Dantonio coached team off an embarrassing loss at home, playing at home against an Iowa team that is getting some love from their near upset. I also think the loss to the Irish isn’t as bad as some people think. Notre Dame is one of the elite teams in the country. 

Iowa had no business even being in that game against the Nittany Lions. The Hawkeyes had 273 total yards for the game to Penn State’s 579 (Iowa had just 61 total yards in 1st half). They ran a mere 45 plays to Penn State’s 99 and were out first downed 29 to 11. That could have just as easily been a game they lost by 40. 

In comparison the Spartans outgained Notre Dame 495 to 355 in their 20-point loss. That game really took a turn for the worse early when Brian Lewerke threw an interception that was returned 59 yards for a touchdown. Instead of Michigan State potentially driving to make it 7-7, they are down 14-0 less than 5 minutes into the game. 

Even with that loss last week, Michigan State is 56–18 at home since 2007. I just think it’s asking too much for Iowa to make this a game on the road. I also think people are still sleeping on this Spartan team after that 3-9 finish a year ago. I know it’s early, but they rank 36th in total offense and 9th in total defense. In comparison, Iowa ranks 93rd in total offense and 78th in total defense and have had the easier schedule. I think we look back at this one and realize this should have been closer to a touchdown. Give me Michigan State -4! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Boston College -10) 

I think it’s worth the risk here to lay the points with the Eagles. This is one of the better 1-3 teams you will find in the country. Not many teams play two of the best teams in the country in their first four. That’s what BC did the last two weeks with games against Notre Dame and Clemson.

The 24-point loss at home to Wake Forest is one that makes this team look worse than it is. The Demon Deacons aren’t considered a very good team, but are off to an impressive 4-0 start. The lone win came against Northern Illinois, who has a victory of their own against Nebraska.

Some teams might not show up after a stretch like BC has had, but not a Steve Addazio coached team. I expect the Eagles to take full advantage of this opportunity to beat up on someone else. This should feel like a walk in the park after the talent they have had to go up against the past two weeks.

I also think we have seen enough from this Central Michigan team to know that it’s a team the Eagles can move the ball against. That’s really the big key with BC, as the defense has been a strength for years. The Chippewas haven’t held a team under 27 points.

They could have easily lost at home to Rhode Island in their opener and got smoked by Syracuse. This just isn’t the same caliber a Central Michigan team as previous years, as they lost a big time talent QB in Cooper Rush. Michigan transfer Shane Morris only looked good against Kansas (467 yards, 5 TDs) and I see him struggling against this Eagles defense.

What will scare a lot of people off of this game, is Boston College’s starting QB, Anthony Brown is questionable. Even if he doesn’t play, I think they will have success offensively. Keep in mind backup Darius Wade has experience an has seen action in each of the last 3 games. Whoever starts will be able to take advantage of a Chippewas defense that is ranked 93rd against the run (183 ypg) and 110th vs the pass (275.8 ypg). That’s with only two games against Power 5 teams and those two being Kansas and Syracuse. Give me the Eagles -10! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (NC State -14) 

A lot of people were high on this team coming into the season. Many thought they were a sleeper in the ACC Atlantic. A 28-35 loss at home to South Carolina in their opener quickly put that hype to rest. The thing is, they were the better team in that game. They outgained the Gamecocks 504-246 and had a 29-12 edge in first downs.

They have looked the part of that sleeper team since that loss, but I don’t think people trust them just yet. They credit that win to Florida State not having their starting QB. The Seminoles’ James Blackmon went 22 of 38 for 278 yards with a 1-0 TD-INT ratio. It’s not like they got horrible QB play and that’s why NC State won. It wasn’t even a big enough win to get them in the Top 25. I don’t think that sits well with this team and they come out looking to make a statement against Syracuse.

I like the potential of the Orange under 2nd year head coach Dino Babers. I think they would have been a much bigger dog here had it not been for them keeping it close at LSU last week. Keep in mind they were getting more than 3 TD’s at LSU and are now laying getting less than 2 against a team that might be just as good, or even better.

That is the same LSU team that got embarrassed by a Mississippi State team that couldn’t hang with Georgia. At the same time, it’s not like Syracuse was all that impressive in their first 3 games. They lost at home to Middle Tennessee, who was outscored 62-9 in two games against Vanderbilt and Minnesota. They did beat Central Michigan by 24, but the Chippewas need OT to beat Rhode Island at home.

Last year each of Syracuse’s 8 losses were by 15 or more and they really struggled to keep it close against the top teams in the ACC. I just think the Orange are going to run in a buzz saw here with that dominant defensive line of NC State. Keep in mins that Syracuse likes to play fast and if the offense isn’t working, things tend to get ugly in a hurry.

We should also feel confident that NC State is able to move the ball against this Orange defense. Syracuse’s weakness is their pass defense, which just let LSU throw for more than 300 yards. The passing game is the strength of the NC State offense. The Wolfpack are just 87th in rushing (146.3 ypg) compared to 15th in pass (314.8 ypg). Give me NC State -14! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (USC -6) 

I think we are going to see a similar type of dominance here by USC to that of their blowout win at home over Stanford back in Week 2. A game they were only favored in by 3.5-points after struggling to take care of Western Michigan on the road. They failed to cover at Cal last week, but that was an awful spot for USC off two huge games against Stanford and Texas and they could have easily covered. This team is one of the best in the country and are on full alert of how good this Washington State team is. As big of an advantage as it is playing at home in these weekday night games, I think the Cougars are simply outclassed on the field. They are one dimensional offensively and the Trojans have the pass rushers and playmakers in the secondary to make life miserable for Washington State's Luke Falk. Give me the Trojans -6! 

50* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Colorado +12) 

I think this line is one the public will jump on Washington. Given what happened in last year’s title game and the fact that this is short number for a Top 10 team to be laying against an unranked opponent. That tells me the oddsmakers like this Colorado team to hang tough and so do I.

Revenge is a big time motivator on the collegiate level and this is the game that Colorado had circled on their schedule. It’s one thing to lose a close game. It’s another to get embarrassed like they did in the Pac-12 title game. Expect a fired up Buffaloes team that isn’t just coming into to keep it close, but win this game outright.

Washington is a talented team and a program that is headed in the right direction under Chris Petersen. I just don’t know that they aren’t getting a little too much respect off of last year’s trip to the playoffs. Especially on the road against what I think is a really good Colorado team.

People aren't giving the Buffaloes the respect they deserve. I don’t blame them. It’s hard to trust a team that's been horrible for so many years. Prior to last year’s shocking 10-4 finish, Colorado hadn’t qualified for a bowl (6 wins) since 2007.

Head coach Mike MacIntyre has done this before. Taking a miserable San Jose State program to a 12-win season in his 3rd year on the job. He’s finally recruited enough talent (had very little to work with when he got here) to compete and would expect them to be a threat in the Pac-12 going forward.

I also think we have seen some concerning signs for Washington, despite a lot of blowout wins. Their opener against Rutgers was a lot more competitive than the final score would indicate. The Huskies only outgained the Scarlet Knights 368-369.

The other big concern with Washington is their running game. The Huskies rank 96th in the country in rushing at just 129.7 ypg. That’s with them rushing for 213 yards against Montana. They had just 84 yards rushing against Rutgers and a mere 92 against Fresno State. That puts a lot of pressure on Jake Browning to do it all for the offense, which isn’t easy on the road.

I really think this is a game that Colorado can pull off the upset. Keep in mind that they went a perfect 6-0 at home last year. That included wins against two ranked teams. Add in the double-digit spread to work with and it certainly feels like the right side. Give me the Buffaloes +12! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS KNOCKOUT (Troy -15.5) 

Troy hasn't covered the spread yet in 2017 (0-3) and I just think it has them way undervalued here against an Akron team that isn't any good. The Zips list 52-0 at Penn State to open the year and that was 35-0 at the half. Last week they lost at home to an Iowa State team that will be lucky to make a bowl by a final of 41-14. The Trojans slow start has a lot to do with them having played on the road against a very good Boise State team and another road game last week against an up and coming New Mexico State team that held their own on the road against Arizona State. Troy's due for a breakout performance and I feel like this is the perfect spot for them to lay a beating on the Zips. Give me the Trojans -15.5! 

100* BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR (Michigan -10) 

I can’t say enough about how impressive a job Brohm has done in such a short period of time with the Boilermakers. I could see why people would be tempted to take Purdue here at home, given how well they have played and Michigan not playing all that great the first few weeks. I just think it’s asking a lot of the Boilermakers to keep it within single-digits here against the Wolverines.

Not to take anything away from Purdue, but I think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction here with this line. I believe most would have had this line closer to 21 than 10 prior to the season starting. I think the Boilermakers offense is going to be in for a rude awakening in this one. While the offense hasn’t performed up to expectation, the Wolverine defense has been outstanding once again. Michigan ranks 9th against the run (82.3 ypg) and 12th against the pass (125.7 ypg). While Purdue has played some good teams, the best defense they have faced statistically is Ohio, which ranks 66th and that’s with them allowing a mere 108 yards in a 59-0 win over Hampton in their opener.

As for the offensive struggles for Michigan, it’s really been about their inability to finish drives in the red-zone. They have been the worst in the country in converting red-zone trips into touchdowns. Last week they had 4 trips inside the 20 and all 4 times had to settle for field goals. That’s definitely a concern, but I just think a team as well-coached as the Wolverines will figure it out and once they do, look out.

A big key to this one could be Purdue’s offense not being able to sustain drives, which in turn will have their defense on the field for long stretches and likely out of gas come the 2nd half. I also don’t think that Harbaugh will allow Michigan to overlook Purdue given how strong the Boilermakers have started and how poorly the Wolverines have played. With a bye week on deck, there’s no excuse for Michigan to not lay it all on the line. Give me the Wolverines -10! 

40* NCAAF SMALL CONFERENCE ATS BLOODBATH (Miami, OH -1)

Love the RedHawks in this spot. Miami has gotten off to a disappointing 1-2 start, which makes this game feel like one they have to have. I don't think there's any question they are the better team and feel this line would have been closer to 7 if Miami's first few games would have gone a little differently. They lost by 5 at Marshall in their opener and that was with the Thundering Herd scoring 3 non-offensive touchdowns. They then blew a big lead late against Cincinnati last week. Central Michigan has a 17-41 loss to Syracuse and needed OT to beat Rhode Island at home. These two played last year and Miami won 37-17. The RedHawks have 17 returning starters from that team and should have no problem pulling out the victory. Give me Miami (OH) -1! 

50* UTAH/ARIZONA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY

Utah over recent years has been a team built on a more conservative rushing approach. They are really opening it up this year under new offensive coordinator Troy Taylor, who had Eastern Washington averaging 42 ppg and 530 ypg last year. Sophomore Tyler Huntley has really turned heads with his play on the field, as he's got the looks of one of the country's top dual threat QBs.  He's completed 72.1% of his attempts for 868 yards, while also rushing for a team-high 212 yards and 3 scores. He’s really enjoyed the addition of wide out Darren Carrington II, who transferred in from Oregon. Carrington all ready has 26 catches for 409 yards and 4 scores. The former Duck went as far as to compare Huntley to a young Marcus Mariota, who he played with. They just entered the Top 25 this week (had been ranked No. 22 last week in the coaches poll). I just don’t think the public or the books have quite caught on to how good this team is. I know it’s early, but they rank 39th in total offense and 12th in total defense. The big key here for more is the Utes run defense, which is 2nd in the country, allowing just 49.3 yards/game. Arizona really needs to be able to run the ball to have any success offensively. In their two wins they have 506 rushing yards against Northern Arizona and 326 against UTEP. In their loss to Houston, they had just 152. Give me the Utes -3.5! 

40* PRIME TIME NCAAF PUBLIC ANNIHILATOR (Texas +16) 

It's amazing how quickly everyone jumped off the Texas bandwagon after they got upset as a big favorite at home in their opener against Maryland. The Longhorns responded to that loss as well as you could, crushing San Jose State 56-0 with a ridiculous 623 to 171 edge in total yards and 32-8 advantage in first downs. I think the public would be on them against just about anyone than USC, who just routed Stanford. The Trojans are good, but this is a ton of points for a team coming off as big as win as USC is. They had that game against Stanford circled on the calendar after losing to them last year. We already saw the Trojans not bring it all against Western Michigan, allowing the Broncos to hang around in the 4th quarter. Texas has enough offense to make this a game. Give me the Longhorns +16! 

40* NCAAF BIG FAVORITE ATS BLOWOUT (Houston -22.5)

I really like the Cougars here. Houston is a team that I think is flying under the radar this season, as everyone has written them off after Todd Herman left to take over at Texas. There's a ton of talent still on this Houston team. That includes possibly the best defensive player in the country in defensive tackle Ed Oliver, who makes everyone around him better by his ability to live in the opponents backfield. The offense added Texas A&M transfer and former 5* QB recruit Kyle Allen to ease the loss of Greg Ward. Rice is a bad team that has struggled to adjust to the new era of spread offenses and were also no match against Stanford in the opener giving up more than 600 yards. I see the Cougars putting this away early and coasting to a win and cover. Give me Houston -22.5! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS LINE MISTAKE OF THE WEEK (W Michigan -20.5)

I have really been impressed with Western Michigan, as they have come out of the gates swinging and hung in there with both USC and Michigan State. Know one expected anything out of this team after P.J. Fleck left, but there's a ton of talent on this roster. Idaho was far from impressive in a 28-6 win against Sacramento State and then lost at home 16-44 to a UNLV team that lost 40-43 in Week 1 to Howard in the biggest upset in CFB history (based on spread). The Broncos aren't going to take this likely after their 0-2 start and this will feel like a walk in the park after the talent they have faced. Give me Western Michigan -20.5! 

40* NCAAF UNDER ATS SHOCKER (Northern Illinois +13)

This is a game that I wouldn't be surprised if the dog won outright. Northern Illinois has been down the past couple of seasons, but this is one of the top 'Group of 5' programs and they have already proven themselves against Boston College out of the ACC, nearly beating the Eagles on the road. Key here is Nebraska is primed for a letdown after the game against the Ducks last week in Oregon and homecoming/Big Ten opener on deck. The other key here is Nebraska's defense has been bad. They gave up 36 points and nearly 500 yards to Arkansas St out of the Sun Belt in their opener (outgained on the game). Northern Illinois is only giving up 104 ypg and 2.2 yards/carry against the run. If they can keep Nebraska from running all over, they will be in this thing until the end. Give me the Huskies +13! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD PUBLIC BLOODBATH (Air Force +23) 

I think this is too many points for Michigan to be laying at home. Air Force runs the triple-option and while the Wolverines defense has played well early, I could see them struggling against this attack. The other thing with the option offense is that it leads to a lot of drives that eat up clock and an even bigger key here is that the Wolverines can keep the Falcons from finishing those drives with touchdowns. Michigan's offense hasn't exactly looked great to start and I think they struggle to find a rhythm here. Also not a great spot against Michigan, as this is the easiest game in the first 4 before their bye, as they open up conference play next week. Give me the Falcons +23!