50* (CFB) - Big 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH (ISU -6.5) 

I really like Iowa State as a 6.5-point home favorite against the Longhorns. I think it's a really good buy low spot on the Cyclones off a shocking 31-38 loss at West Virginia. The absence of linebacker Mike Rose was definitely felt in the loss to the Mountaineers, but he will be back for this game. 

I know both of these teams have all but played their way out of the Big 12 title game, but there's still some hope that if ISU can win out they could sneak back into the mix. It's not crazy to think that Oklahoma St and Baylor could lose two more conference games and if ISU beats Oklahoma, they would need just one more setback by the Sooners to own the tie-breaker on them (OU still has to play at Baylor or OK State). 

It's a different story for Texas. After last week's 24-31 loss at Baylor, there really isn't a path for the Longhorns with 3 conference losses already, especially given they have already lost to Oklahoma, Oklahoma St and Baylor. 

All that's left for Texas is to play for pride and that can be tough for a program like the Longhorns who expect to be contending for National Championships. 

You also got to wonder if the way Texas has been losing doesn't set them up for an absolute meltdown. The Longhorns had a 21-10 lead in the 2nd half of their loss vs Baylor. The week before they were 17-3 early and 24-13 in the 2nd half of a 24-32 loss to the Cowboys. The game before that they blew a 38-20 halftime lead vs Oklahoma. Give me Iowa State -6.5! 

50* (CFB) - Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH (Iowa -12) 

I was clearly on the wrong side with Iowa +3.5 in last week's ugly loss at Wisconsin. So were a lot of others. I just think most will have a hard time coming back with the Hawkeyes as a double-digit road favorite against a Northwestern program that has given them problems in the past. I'm not only going to fire back on Iowa, I'm loading up on the Hawkeyes this Saturday. 

The biggest difference between Iowa's 6-0 start and their back-to-back ugly losses to Purdue and Wisconsin is turnovers. Iowa was winning the turnover battle at an alarming rate in their 6-0 start. They are -6 in that department in their last 2 games. You also got to look at the fact that they just played two really good defenses. 

I just think it has Iowa way undervalued here against an awful Northwestern team. The Wildcats were one of the few teams that didn't bring back a plethora of starters and they really didn't do anything in the transfer portal. You can see it in the numbers. The Wildcats are scoring just 19.0 ppg and are giving up 27.1 ppg. Numbers that get a lot worse if you just look at conference play, as they are only scoring 14.0 ppg and giving up 35 ppg in Big Ten play. 

Not only are they giving up a ton of points, they are allowing 457.8 ypg and giving up close to 6 yards/carry vs the run. If Iowa can run the football, they can move the ball and I just don't see that Northwestern offense being able to have the kind of success needed to keep this within two touchdowns. Give me the Hawkeyes -12! 

40* (CFB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Arkansas -5) 

I think a lot of people are going to be hesitant to take the Razorbacks in this game after just watching Mississippi State roll Kentucky 31-17 at home last week. You might remember that line stunk, as we had an unranked Bulldogs team listed as the favorite over the No. 12 ranked team in the country. 

Not only are people going to think twice about betting against Mississippi State, there's been a lot to get excited about with this Arkansas team after their 4-0 start that saw them knock off both Texas and Texas A&M. 

The biggest thing that brought the Razorbacks back to reality was the schedule. They had to play back-to-back road games against Georgia and Ole Miss before hosting a very underrated Auburn team that I think some people are starting to realize just how good they are. 

They snapped their 3-game skid, but it was against a cupcake in Arkansas-Pine Bluff. No one is going to read anything into that result. 

For me it's all about the eye test and I just think Arkansas is a really good football team and when you look at the matchup, there's reason to believe we are getting a great price on the Razorbacks. 

The strength of this Arkansas defense is their secondary. Going into the season, I had them as a Top 25 secondary in the nation. They have more than lived up to the hype. They rank 8th overall and 4th among Power 5 teams in passing yards allowed per game at 167.5. 

I just don't think it's the DNA of a Mike Leach offense to not throw the ball at all costs. Regardless if that's the best strategy to attack the defense you are playing. They remind me a lot of the Chiefs in the NFL. Even though teams are 100% playing pass, they continue to throw it when the running lanes are there. 

So while the passing yards may be there for Mississippi State in the end, I don't think they are going to be able to put a ton of points on the board. Keep in mind, it can be really hard to score in the redzone when you can't run and the other team has the talent to defend the pass. 

If a Bulldogs offense that is averaging 32.8 ppg, 465 ypg and 6.6 yards/play can give us anything, I see this being a very comfortable win for Arkansas. It also doesn't hurt that Arkansas comes into this game off a bye. Give me the Razorbacks -5! 

50* (CFB) - ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH (NC State -2.5) 

I love NC State laying less than a field goal on the road against Florida State. I think a lot of people are going to look at this line and wonder how it is that the Wolfpack are this shot of a favorite against a FSU team that is just 3-5.

I think when a line looks off like this, you can almost talk yourself into taking the other side and I've heard a heck of a lot more people picking FSU in this game than I have people siding with NC State. The fact that not everyone is screaming take the Wolfpack, makes me feel a lot more comfortable backing NC State. 

I think the biggest thing that gets lost with this handicap is the emotional letdown that has to come from last week's game at Clemson. A game they led 20-17 until giving up a TD to the Tigers in the final minute of regulation. I know Clemson is down, but these other ACC teams don't care. The Tigers are still the biggest game on the schedule. 

So while there will be those that play the card that FSU will want to play spoiler against NC State's quest to win the ACC Atlantic, I'm just not buying it. 

I also don't love the matchup at all for the Seminoles. FSU is a pretty one-dimensional offense that really needs to be able to run the ball and are going up against stingy NC State defense that is giving up just 18 ppg and 339.8 ypg in ACC play. Wolfpack also give up just 3.5 yards/carry vs the run. FSU's defense is giving up 30.2 ppg and 415.4 ypg in ACC play. Give me the Wolfpack -2.5! 

40* (CFB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Oklahoma State -2.5) 

I was lucky enough to get in on the Cowboys -2.5 before the line jumped to -3.5 and I would still recommend a play on Oklahoma State at -3.5. 

It took me some time to come around on this Oklahoma State team and while I think more and more are jumping on the Gundy bandwagon, I still feel like this Cowboys team doesn't get the respect they deserve. We have seen this week in and week out with this team, as they come in having covered 6 straight games. 

There's also been nothing fluky about it. Oklahoma State has outgained every team during this stretch, including the game they lost against ISU. Cowboys are outgaining teams on the season by 100 ypg and by 154.6 ppg in their 5 Big 12 games. W. Virginia is getting outgained by only 2 yards/game, but are giving up 400.2 ypg in Big 12 games. 

I also think you got to look at the two defenses in play. Oklahoma State is giving up just 17 ppg, 274.8 ypg and 4.8 yards/play in Big 12 games. The Mountaineers are allowing 26.4 ppg, 400.2 ypg and 6.4 yards/play in Big 12 games. 

Offensively I would say the two teams are pretty even, so it really comes down to me, who I think can get the stops needed and that's a pretty easy one. Just feels like to me the Mountaineers are getting a little too much respect from winning outright their last two games vs TCU and ISU.

I know you could say the Cyclones and Cowboys are even, but keep in mind that ISU didn't have the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Mike Rose in that loss to the Mountaineers. Give me Oklahoma State -2.5

40* (CFB) - Situational Public Money ATS MASSACRE (TCU +7)

I just got to take a shot here with TCU as a 7-point home dog against Baylor. These two teams from the state of Texas do not like each other, I think even more so there's a real hatred from the TCU side. 

I kind of had this game circled as a big effort game for TCU when I looked at the games Sunday and then we found out that head coach Gary Patterson was being let go. I just thought there was going to be motivation from the Horned Frogs not only from being a home dog, but also the chance to spoil one of their biggest rivals quest to make the Big 12 title game. 

Now we should get as big an effort as TCU can muster after Patterson leaving, as teams always seem to lay it all on the line in that first game after a coach gets fired. 

I'm also just not quite sold on this Baylor team. One thing that I think gets overlooked in their 7-1 start, is the fact that they have played just 3 true road games and two of those were cupcake opponents in Texas State and Kansas. The one good team they played was Oklahoma State and they lost 24-14 while getting outgained 401 to 280 (24-10 first downs). Give me the Horned Frogs +7! 

40* (CFB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (California -11.5) 

I got no problem laying the 11.5 on the road with Cal, as the Golden Bears will travel to Tucson to take on a winless Arizona team. I just think a lot of people will look and see that Cal is just 3-5 and will have a hard time trusting the Bears to cover double-digits on the road, especially after Arizona just covered their last two games as a double-digit dog. The Wildcats lost 16-21 at home to Washington as a 17.5-point dog and 34-41 at USC as a 21.5 point dog. 

Simply put, the market has adjusted some on Arizona after those results and now it's time to go the other way. I also think this Cal team might be one of the more underrated squads in the country. The Golden Bears are just 3-5, but a lot of that is some bad luck in close games. They are 0-4 in games decided by 7 or fewer points. 

They come in having covered 3 straight and have really done some impressive things offensively in this stretch. Over this 3-game span they are as balanced as it gets, averaging 207.7 rushing yards/game and 244.7 passing yards/game. This includes a road game at Oregon and a home game against a very good Oregon State team. 

Cal is also 3-5 despite outscoring their opponents by 1.6 ppg and outgaining them by 57 ypg. Arizona is 0-8 for good reason. They are getting outscored by 15.0 ppg and outgained by 30 ypg. Give me Cal -11.5! 

40* (CFB) - Early Bird ATS SHOCKER (Missouri +39) 

I'm will take my chances with Missouri losing by less than 40 in their game against No. 1 ranked Georgia on Saturday. I just think the public perception is that no matter what the line is, there's no way they are going to bet against the Bulldogs against a team like Missouri. 

I get it. Georgia has been incredible and certainly look like the best team in the country, but asking any team to win a conference game by 40+ is a lot. 

Now I know the Bulldogs defense has not allowed more than 13 points in a game this season, but if there's one game they might not be as locked in on that side, it's this one. Georgia just beat arguably their biggest rival last week in Florida, which many thought was their last real test leading up to the SEC title game. 

Just that game alone could spark a letdown, but it's really the 4th straight big game that the Bulldogs have played. It started with a home game against an undefeated Arkansas team back in early October. They then went on the road to Auburn before hosting another undefeated team in Kentucky. Ending with the game against Florida. Add in the massive spread and it's going to be hard for Georgia to take this one seriously. 

There's also no incentive anymore to blow teams out once they are up big. Georgia's path to the payoff is paved as long as they just win out. Given the schedule they have just played, this feels like a game where if it does get out of hand, the starters could get pulled a little earlier than normal. 

Even if Missouri only scores 13, I think they will be able to get to 20, it would take 60 points from Georgia to cover this game. Give me the Tigers +39! 

40* (NCAAF) - Friday Night ATS SLAUGHTER (Boston College +3) 

I'll take my chances with Boston College as a home dog in Friday's home game against Virginia Tech. This line is begging you to take the Hokies, as Virginia Tech comes in off a 26-17 win and cover as a 3-point road dog at Georgia Tech, while the Eagles enter on a 4-game losing streak. A horrific stretch offensively for the Eagles, who have scored just 13, 7, 14 and 6 points respectively. 

Simply put the line here stinks and when something smells this bad, especially in a weeknight game, you got to look the other way. Note that even with everyone running to place a bet on the Hokies, this line is not moving. That tells me the books have got some respected money on BC and do not want to give out the 3.5 to the wiseguys. 

I think the biggest thing that's getting overlooked with Va Tech, is prior to winning and covering against Georgia Tech this past Saturday, they were just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their previous 5 games. 

It's a great sell high spot on the Hokies, who have looked great offensively in their last two games and have taken great care of the ball. History backs this up. Virginia Tech is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after 2 straight games where they gained 6.25 or more yards/play and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 on the road after 2 straight games where they didn't have a single turnover. 

We also see that road favorites who are not good vs the run (allow 4.75 or more yards/carry) and have given up 5.5 or more yards/carry in each of their last 2 games are just 14-39 (26.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Give me BC +3! 

40* (CFB) - Wednesday MACtion MONEYMAKER (C Michigan +9.5) 

Give me the Chippewas as a 9.5-point dog against the Broncos in Wednesday's battle for the Victory Cannon. I like to lean to the dog in rivalry games like this, but this was a no-brainer for me. I don't understand at all why Western Michigan is laying more than a touchdown in this game. It just feels like to me that the market is a little high on this Broncos team and I think a lot of it has to do with that early season road win at Pitt. 

Central Michigan is just 4-4, but two of their losses were non-conference games on the road against SEC teams. Their 2 conference losses have been a 11-point loss on the road against a good Miami (OH) team and a 1-point loss to arguably the best team in the league in Northern Illinois. 

Central Michigan's offense is built around the passing game. They come in averaging 285 ypg thru the air. That's worth noting, as these kind of pass heavy offenses have given Western Michigan problems. The Broncos are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs a team that is averaging 275 or more passing yards per game. Give me the Chippewas +9.5! 

40* (CFB) - Sharp Money VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Louisville +7) 

I'm going to take the Louisville Cardinals as a 7-point road dog against the NC State Wolfpack. I just feel like this is way too many points for NC State to be laying in this game. I just don't get the love people have with this Wolfpack team. 

Everyone was on them last week as a short road favorite at Miami and they lost that game outright. It just feels like to me that when NC State had that 27-21 OT win at home against Clemson early in the year, the perception of this team went way up, when it turns out that it really wasn't that impressive of a win. 

Everyone wants to talk about how good the NC State defense is, but I'm not as sold on them being as elite as the numbers. The Wolfpack come in giving up just 16.7 ppg, 313 ypg and 4.9 yards/play. I just feel a lot of that is a result of who they have played. We saw La Tech put up 480 yards on this defense a few weeks ago and Miami with a backup QB had 420 last week. 

I just have a hard time seeing NC State being able to contain one of the most underrated players in college football in Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham. This guy has thrown for 1,684 yards and completed 63.4% of his attempts, while also rushing for 480 yards and 13 TDs. Those 13 TDS are tied for the most rushing TDs by any player in the country and he's had at least 2 on the ground in all but one game this season. 

The other thing to note about this Cardinals team, is they are a couple bad breaks away from coming into this game on a 6-game win streak. They lost on a last second field goal at Wake Forest, who is currently 7-0 and ranked No. 13 in the country. They also had a 33-34 loss at home to Virginia, where they had a 30-13 lead going into the 4th quarter. There only other loss was the opener against Ole Miss, where they played an awful 1st half of football. 

I just see these two teams as more of equals and feel the number here should be something more along the lines of NC State as a 3-point home favorite. Give me the Cardinals +7! 

40* (CFB) - Situational Mismatch ATS BLOWOUT (Wake Forest -16.5) 

Normally I would be hesitant to lay a number like this with a team like Wake Forest, who is getting all kinds of love with their 7-0 start that has them ranked No. 13 in the country. The thing is, I just think the books can be a little slower to inflate the numbers on a program like Wake Forest, who hasn't been in this spot before and really wasn't expected to be here. 

I just don't know how when you look at the matchup here, you don't feel good about the Demon Deacons winning this game by at least 17 points. Duke is 0-3 in ACC play and have been outscored on average in those 3 losses by a score of 39.0 to 11.3. 

The Blue Devils have shown zero ability to slow down a good offensive team and this Wake Forest team is really special on the offensive side of the ball. The Demon Deacons are averaging 43.1 ppg, 470 ypg and 6.6 yards/play and that's against teams who on average only give up 29.8 ppg, 384 ypg and 5.8 yards/play. Duke is giving up 31.6 ppg, 445 ypg and 6.3 yards/play. 

I know the Wake Forest defense has given up a lot of points in their last 3 games. They allowed 34 to Louisville, 37 to Syracuse and 56 to Army last week. The thing is, Louisville has one of the best QBs in the country, the Orange have one of the best RBs in the country and Army has that triple-option attack. In their 4 other games this season they didn't allow more than 17 points in any game. I think Duke could get to 20 points and still fail to cover by more than a touchdown, as I think WF is going to put up 40+. Give me the Demon Deacons -16.5! 

40* (CFB) - Vegas Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Syracuse -6) 

I will gladly lay the 6-points at home with the Orange against the Eagles. I just think we are still seeing BC get a little bit too much respect from their 4-0 start. They appeared to back up that strong start with a close 13-19 loss at Clemson, but that's proven to be more a result of the Tigers just not being very good. Since that game the Eagles have lost 7-33 at home to NC State and 14-28 at Louisville. That's now 3 straight games where BC has failed to score more than 14 points. 

That struggling offense will now be up against a good Syracuse defense that is giving up just 24.6 ppg, 325 ypg and 5.0 yards/play. It's also worth pointing out how much better the Orange D has played at home, where they are giving up just 288 ypg, 4.4 yards/play and 2.2 yards/rush. 

On the flip side of this, The Eagles defense doesn't match the numbers. BC is giving up just 20.7 ppg and 345 ypg, but a lot of that had to with their 3 non-conference games against Colgate, UMass and Temple. 

Just last week we saw Louisville rack up 331 rushing yards on this Eagles defense and now they must figure out a way to slow down one of the best backs in the country in Sean Tucker, who already has over 1,000 yards on the ground (1,060). Not to mention, they got a QB who can run it, as Garrett Shrader has 592 yards and he wasn't even the starter to start the year. Combined Tucker and Shrader have 22 rushing scores this season. I just don't think it's asking a lot here for the Orange to win this game by at least a touchdown. Give me Syracuse -6! 

40* (CFB) - Public Money BOOKIE MASSACRE (Washington St +16.5) 

I'm more than happy to take a shot here with Washington State as a 16.5-point road dog against the Sun Devils in Saturday's Pac-12 action. Everyone was running to bet against the Cougars last week when the news came out that Washington State head coach Nick Rolovich and several assistants were being let go because of them not willing to get vaccinated. 

While the Cougars did end up losing 19-21 at home to BYU, they cashed as a 3.5-point dog. That's now 5 straight covers for Washington State and I think they are way undervalued again, as the perception now becomes that the Cougars played their hearts out after losing their coach and are going to fall flat on their face on the road against a good Arizona State team. 

I'm just not buying it. I think if anything what happened with Rolovich has brought this Washington State even closer together as a team and they are going to go out and lay everything they have on the line in this game. 

I'm not saying they are going to be able to win the game, but I really like them to keep this within two touchdowns. Give me the Cougars +16.5! 

40* (CFB) - Big Money ODDSMAKERS ERROR (Iowa +3.5) 

I'm going against my traditional ways here, as I'm almost always included to tank an unranked team favored over a ranked opponent. I just don't think the line here is justified. Prior to the Hawkeyes losing that game against Purdue a couple weeks ago, the lookahead for this game was Iowa -2.5. 

I know the Hawkeyes looked bad in the loss to the Boilermakers, but this is still the same team that started out the season 6-0 and was ranked No. 2 in the country. Iowa also has a massive edge here in rest, as the Hawkeyes are coming off a bye (3-0 ATS L3 seasons off a bye), where Wisconsin had to play a physical game against Purdue last week. You also have to keep in mind that the Boilermakers are a team that has just had Iowa's number under Jeff Brohm. 

The biggest thing that Purdue was able to do in that game was throw the football. Aidan O'Connell threw for 375 yards with 240 of those yards going to wide out David Bell. Wisconsin just isn't going to be able to do anything close to that with Graham Mertz. The guy has had 10 or fewer completions in each of the Badgers last 4 games. 

I just feel like in a game that figures to be extremely low scoring and more than likely decided by a field goal, you can't pass up on the Hawkeyes catching over a field goal. Give me Iowa +3.5! 

40* (CFB) - Thursday Night VEGAS INSIDER (E Carolina -9.5) 

I got no problem laying 9.5 with the Pirates at home against South Florida on Thursday. I actually think there's some decent value here with East Carolina laying fewer than two touchdowns. It just feels like to me that we are getting a good price on the Pirates due to the fact that they come in off back-to-back losses, while the Bulls are fresh off a 34-14 blowout win against Temple as a mere 1.5-point favorite. 

I just think that game for USF was an aberration for this season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Prior to that game against the Owls, the Bulls had given up at least 32 in the 5 other games they have played against a FBS opponent. I just have a really hard time seeing South Florida being able to go on the road and keep a talented Pirates offense in check. 

On the flip side of this, I think it's going to be really hard for South Florida to go score for score with ECU to keep this game competitive. The Bulls are as one dimensional as it gets offensively for a team that isn't running the triple-option. USF is averaging 44 rush attempts compared to just 26 pass attempts a game. Last week against Temple they ran it a ridiculous 73 times. 

ECU is in no way an elite defensive team, but they also aren't as bad as the numbers would suggest. They give up 28.4 ppg and 430 ypg, but it's come against opponents that average 31.1 ppg and 431 ypg. They are only giving up 4.2 yards/carry vs the run and that drops to 3.3 yards/carry at home. They have also been better of late vs the run, giving up just 126.8 ypg over their last 4. Last week they went on the road and held Houston to just 87 rushing yards. If they can just get a few stops early in this game, this thing is going to get out of hand. Give me the Pirates -9.5! 

40* (CFB) Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Indiana +21) 

I'll take the 3 touchdowns at home with the Hoosiers, as they will host 5th ranked Ohio State under the lights at a sold out Memorial Stadium in Bloomington. I just think we are getting too good a price here with Indiana in this spot. 

No question it's been a disappointing season for the Hoosiers, who come into this game with a mere 2-4 record. However, it's not a big surprise to me. Indiana U7.5 was one of my favorite win total bets in college football this year. 

I don't foresee them winning this game, but I do think there's reason to believe they can keep it within the number. 

With Iowa getting upset last week at Purdue and the Buckeyes seeming to have figured things out since that loss to Oregon with 4 straight wins, the hype has returned in a big way around this Ohio State team. 

I know they have dominated in their 4-game winning streak, outscoring their 4 opponents in this stretch by an average score of 54.5 to 14.3 (40.2 ppg). The thing is, those 4 wins are against Tulsa, Akron, Rutgers and Maryland. 

Keep in mind the Buckeyes were only a 15-point road favorite at Rutgers a few weeks ago, so you can really see how the perception of this team has changed over the last month. 

The key here is that as disappointing as this season has been for Indiana, you know they are going to be up for this game. In fact, I think to them it's almost like it's their Super Bowl, as it's going to take a remarkable finish for them to get to a bowl with their schedule. They can only lose two more and on top of this game have road games at Michigan and Purdue. 

There's definitely some concerns with the Hoosiers offense without Michael Penix Jr under center, but as we saw in the Texa A&M/Alabama game, sometimes bad QBs can have one of those special nights. That's what I'm hoping for with backup Jack Tuttle. 

The even bigger thing for me, is I think this Indiana defense can give Ohio State some troubles. The Hoosiers are only giving up 333 ypg and 5.0 yards/play, which is pretty impressive when you take into account 4 of their first 6 games have come against Iowa, Cincinnati, Penn State and Michigan State. 

I also think it's worth pointing out the books have a history of over inflating the Buckeyes in this matchup. While Indiana is 0-10 SU in the last 10 meetings, they are 8-2 ATS during this stretch. Give me the Hoosiers +21! 

50* (CFB) Prime Time MAX UNIT Top Play (TCU -4.5) 

I love the Horned Frogs as a mere 4.5-point home favorite against the Mountaineers. I know it's been rough sledding for anyone that has been on TCU early in the year. The Horned Frogs are just 1-4-1 ATS and have lost 3 of their last 4, including a 34-42 loss at home to SMU as a 9.5-point favorite. 

I just think it's created some value here. It's not like they have lost to bad teams. Their 3 losses are against SMU, Texas and Oklahoma. I know they got destroyed by the Sooners last week, but that's a different Sooners team with Caleb Williams at quarterback and TCU was without their star running back Zach Evans (probable to play this week). 

I also don't understand the love for this West Virginia team. They are returning from their bye with a record of just 1-4, but if you look at the schedule there's reason to be cautious with this team going forward. 

The Mountaineers only win is against Virginia Tech at home 27-21 and the more we have seen out of the Hokies the less impressive they look. WV lost 24-30 to a bad Maryland team in Week 1, lost at home to an average Texas Tech team and got annihilated last time we saw them at Baylor 20-45. 

They did go on the road and give Oklahoma a major scare, losing by a final of just 13-16. However, that's back when the Sooners had Rattler at quarterback. You just can't overreact to that score. Give me TCU -4.5! 

40* (CFB) - Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER (UCLA -2) 

I'm pretty confident that if you were to bet unranked teams who are favored against a ranked opponent, you are going to profit long-term. There's 4 of them on the card this week (Wisconsin, ISU and Air Force are the other three). I'll have money on all 4, but the one I really like is UCLA as a 2-point home favorite against No. 10 Oregon. 

The Bruins have taken a big step forward in year 4 under Chip Kelly and it shows with UCLA's 5-2 ATS record thru their first 7 games. They are going to need some help from Arizona State, who they lost to outright in their head-to-head matchup (Sun Devils have a very favorable schedule going forward), but if they can win this game and upset Utah on the road next week, they got a legit shot at winning the Pac 12 South and playing in the title game. 

All I'm worried about is how they will play this week against the Ducks and I think they are going to deliver one of their better showings of the season. 

I'm just not a believer in this Oregon team. Part of it's my lack of trust in quarterback Anthony Brown, but even more so it's the injury to running back C.J. Verdell. If you remember back to their upset of Ohio State, it was Verdell that was the difference in that game. Hre rushed for 161 yards and 2 scores, while also leading the team with 3 catches for 34 yards and a score. 

I really think we learned a lot about Oregon going forward in last week's game against Cal at home. They won the game 24-17, but trailed 10-17 in the 4th quarter of that game. Keep in mind that was with the Ducks coming off a bye following a loss at Stanford. The right team is favored in this game. Give me UCLA -2! 

40* (CFB) - Oklahoma St/Iowa St Big 12 PLAY OF THE WEEK (Iowa State -7) 

I'm pretty confident that if you were to bet unranked teams who are favored against a ranked opponent, you are going to profit long-term. There's 4 of them on the card this week (Wisconsin, ISU and Air Force are the other three). I'll have money on all 4, but one I really like is unranked Iowa State as a 7-point home favorite against No. 8 Oklahoma State.

This line sticks out like a sore thumb. You got the No. 8 team in the country getting a full touchdown a week after they went on the road and upset No. 25 ranked Texas 32-24 as a 3.5-point dog. 

Keep in mind the public is taking the bait. Everyone is on Oklahoma State and yet we have seen this line go up from -6.5 to -7. The books are flat out telling you who they think is going to cover. 

I can definitely see why the books are putting their stock in this Iowa State team. Since Matt Campbell took over the program, this is a team that year in and year out has only gotten better as the season progresses. 

I thought they played one of their best games of the season last week on the road against a good K-State team. While a spot in the playoffs is likely out of the picture, there's definitely a path back to the Big 12 title game for the Cyclones if they beat the Cowboys. 

I just don't think Oklahoma State is as good as their 6-0 start. Their best win so far is last week's victory against Texas. A game they trailed 17-3 early and were getting Texas in a great spot after the Longhorns had that epic collapse the week before against Oklahoma. 

I just think the Cowboys are really limited offensively and that's a problem against an elite Iowa State defense. Cyclones are only giving up 16.3 ppg, 251 ypg and 4.4 yards/play. They also only give up 2.8 yards/carry against the run and this is not a good passing attack for Oklahoma State. 

I know the Cowboys have a pretty good defense of their own, but this is very good Iowa State offense. Cyclones are averaging 33.7 ppg and that's against opponents that on average only give up 25.4 ppg. If Brock Purdy plays anything close to like he did last week against the Wildcats, this game will not be close. Give me Iowa State -7! 

40* (CFB) - LSU/Ole Miss SEC PLAY OF THE WEEK (Ole Miss -9) 

This could completely backfire if Ole Miss ends up playing this game without starting quarterback Matt Corral, but I think this line tells you the books feel pretty confident that he will be out there on Saturday. It almost feels like it's more of Lane Kiffin just being a troll by listing him on the injury report and trying to throw off the Tigers. 

You might be asking how you can bet against LSU as more than a TD dog after watching them just upset No. 20 Florida last week 49-42 as a 12.5-point dog. I just think that was more of a result of Florida just not coming to play. With all the guys the Tigers were going to be missing, everyone was calling for a Gators blowout. If you remember, that line moved a ton in favor of Florida leading up to that game. 

I also wonder if the LSU players didn't go into that game thinking it might the last time they got to play for head coach Ed Orgeron. It certainly seemed to mean a lot more to them. 

It would have been one thing if he was fired, but instead it will be Orgeron that finishes out the 2021 season as the guy in charge. It just feels a bit awkward to me that he's sticking around. 

Either way, when a team plays with that kind of emotion and energy in a game like LSU did last week against Florida, it's really hard to come back the next week with that same intensity, especially on the road. 

I just don't see LSU being able to go score for score with Ole Miss in this game. The Tigers secondary hasn't been great this year and they haven't played anything close to the caliber a passing attack as what Ole Miss brings to the table. If we can just a few stops from the Rebels defense, this is going to get really ugly in a hurry. Give me Ole Miss -9! 

50* (CFB) Early Bird Saturday MAX UNIT Top Play (Syracuse +3.5) 

I'm a little shocked the Orange are catching more than a field goal on the road against the Hokies. It almost feels like there's this expectation that Syracuse is going to lay an egg after that tough loss to Clemson last week. 

I would maybe buy this being a letdown if they pulled off the upset, but the fact of the matter is they lost their third straight game and are now just 3-4 after starting out 3-1. Keep in mind all 4 losses have been by 10 or fewer. 

If the Orange are serious about making a bowl, this is one they really need to get and it's a game I think they should be favored to win. I don't like what I've seen out of this Hokies team this year. Virginia Tech has a so-so quarterback in Braxton Burmeister, no real threat of a running game and a injury-plagued defense. 

This is also a Hokies defense that has had problems stopping the run. That's a problem here. Syracuse has one of the best backs in the country in freshman Sean Tucker. He's rushed for 100 or more yards in each of the Orange's last 5 games and 6 of 7 overall, including 157 last week against an elite Clemson defense. They also recently made the move to Garrett Shrader at quarterback and he's shown he can run it. Prior to be helding in check by Clemson, he rushed for 178 against Wake Forest and 137 against FSU. 

That lackluster Va Tech offense will be up against a talented Syracuse defense that is giving up just 309 ypg and 4.7 yards/play. It just feels like the Hokies are getting a little too much respect here at home. Give me the Orange +3.5! 

40* (CFB) - C Carolina/App State ATS NO-BRAINER (Appalachian State +5.5) 

Everyone is on the No. 14 ranked Chanticleers as less than a touchdown favorite on the road against Appalachian State. Not only because of how great Coastal Carolina has looked in route to a 6-0 start, but a lot of people tuned into the Mountaineers game last week against Lafayette, as it was a stand alone game on Tuesday. A game App State lost 41-13 as a 4.5-point favorite. 

At this point in the season the books aren't going to just hang a bad number in a game they know is going to get bet with it being the only football game on the board Wednesday. That only makes me like the Mountaineers that much more with this too good to be true line the public is pounding with CC. 

Yes, this is a good Chanticleers team, but you couldn't have started the season with an easier schedule than what they have. Their six wins are against The Citadel, Kansas, Buffalo, UMass, ULM and Arkansas State. While most of those have been blowouts, they did just barely scrape by with a 28-25 win on the road against Buffalo. 

I think it might prove to be a challenge for Coastal Carolina to take this massive of a step up in competition, especially on the road against what's going to be a pissed off Mountaineers team. App State played one of their worst games of the season in the blowout loss to the Ragin' Cajuns. They turned it over a season-high 4 times (previous high was 2) and 3 of those 4 turnovers led to short field TDs for Lafayette. 

I expect a different looking Mountaineers team on their home field against a ranked team. App State has a pretty strong home field edge. They have only lost 5 times on their home field since 2015. Give me the Mountaineers +5.5! 

40* (CFB) - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER (Utah +1) 

I'll grab the +1 with the Utah Utes at home against the Arizona State Sun Devils. I think the line here tells you everything you need to know. You have the No. 18 ranked team in the country in Arizona State the smallest of favorites and even a pick'em at a lot of books against an unranked Utes team that has gotten off to a disappointing 3-2 start. 

I just think a lot of people wrote this Utah team off after their 1-2 start, which saw them lose back-to-back non-conference games on the road against BYU and San Diego State. At that same time they also had Baylor transfer quarterback Charlie Brewer up and leave the program. 

It's hard to explain why things didn't work with Brewer, but this Utah team has looked like the team we expected to see to start the season since he left. They got back on track with a 24-13 win at home against Washington State and then went on the road and rolled USC 42-26. Their first every win inside the Coliseum in LA. 

Backup quarterback Cameron Rising, had a breakout showing in that win over the Trojans, throwing for 306 yards and 3 scores, while also rushing for 27 yards and a score. He's a kid that plays with a ton of energy and passion. I think it's really lit a fire under this team. It wasn't just the offense, the defense really played one of their better games. 

I also think people overlook the fact that while Utah's playoff hopes were thrown out the window with those two early losses, their goals of winning the Pac-12 title are well within reach and a win here would really put them in the drivers seat to win the South. 

I'm also not as high as others on Arizona State. That's not to say I don't think the Sun Devils are a good team, I just feel like they are getting way too much respect on the road against a really good Utah team that has a ton of momentum working in their favor. 

Speaking of Utah and momentum, the Utes are 10-1 ATS last 11 off a conference win and are 8-1 ATS last 9 off a conference win by 2 or more. ASU is also 2-5 ATS under Herm Edwards as a road favorite and their only two wins came last year in a pandemic season where there were no fans at games. Give me the Utes +1! 

40* (CFB) - Prime Time ATS SLAUGHTER (Boston College +3) 

I'm going to take the field goal with Boston College at home against NC State. I know the Wolfpack are the No. 22 ranked team in the country and the Eagles aren't in the Top 25, but I do not think NC State should be favored on the road in this matchup. 

I think the Wolfpack are simply overrated because of their 27-21 2OT win at home against Clemson a few weeks ago. A great win, but let's not overlook how much the Tigers struggled. At the same time, BC went on the road and only lost 13-19 at Clemson and they had the ball inside Tigers territory twice in the final minutes, including a 1st & 10 on the Clemson 11 with 53 seconds to play (fumbled two plays later to end the game). 

The other thing with BC is I think they get knocked a little because they are down starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec. The thing is, senior backup Dennis Grosel has been more than serviceable in his absence. In his last start, against Clemson, he threw for 311 yards with BC offering no threat of a run game (46 yards on 34 attempts). 

Another thing with NC State that you need to take note of is they have played 4 of their first 5 at home. The only true road game they have played was at Mississippi State back in early September and they lost that game 10-24 as a 2-point road favorite. Wolfpack are just 18-36 ATS last 54 as a road favorite and are 2-12 ATS last 14 as a road favorite of 3-points or less. Give me the Eagles +3! 

40* (CFB) - Alabama/Miss St SEC PLAY OF THE WEEK (Mississippi State +17.5)

Most aren't going to think twice about laying the points with Alabama. Anytime the Crimson Tide lose, the first thing that comes to mind is there's no way they are going to lose two in a row. Chances are they won't, but the books know this kind of thought process and will inflate the line to create some massive value with the other side. 

There's not a lot of negatives you can say about the Alabama offense, but this is far from the Crimson Tide defense that we expected to see this year. At least to this point. Alabama is giving up 22 ppg. Nothing to be ashamed of for most teams, but they haven't allowed more than 20 ppg in a season since Nick Saban's first year on the job back in 2007. 

That defense has arguably been at it's worst in Alabama's two road games, where they gave up 29 points and over 400 total yards to Florida and the 41 points last week to a Texas A&M team that looked lost offensively this year. 

I feel pretty good about Mississippi State being able to move the ball. The Bulldogs are only scoring 27.8 ppg, but are putting up 429 ypg, which isn't too far off from the 472 ypg that Alabama averages. 

I also think the Bulldogs are sound enough defensively to at least make Alabama work for what they get offensively. Not only are they talented, but the energy in Davis Wade Stadium for a night game is going to only help the defense. 

The other thing to keep in mind, is that while Alabama may seem invincible to letdowns, this is far from an easy spot for them. They just put everything they had into their last two games against Ole Miss and and Texas A&M. It's not going to be as easy as most think for them to play their best in this spot. Give me Mississippi State +17.5! 

40* (CFB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Texas -4.5) 

Most will hesitate to lay the points with Texas coming off that big collapse against Oklahoma last week. No question that loss isn't going to sit well, but I don't think an undefeated Oklahoma State team is the kind of opponent that will result in a letdown. This is a massive game for both teams in terms of making that Big 12 title game. 

The other big thing for me, is I'm not buying the stock in this Oklahoma State team. This is by far the best team they will have faced this year as their five wins have come against Missouri St, Tulsa, Boise State, Kansas State and Baylor. 

None of those teams are even close to being on the same level offensively as this Longhorns team. So while the defensive numbers look great for the Cowboys, I don't think they are going to be able to slow down this Texas offense, especially on the road. Keep in mind last year, the Longhorns hung 41 on the road in a 7-point win at Oklahoma State. 

As for the Cowboys offense, there's nothing that really impresses me with what they do. Despite the easy schedule they have played, they only come in averaging 25.4 ppg and 305.2 ypg. So while Texas' defense has struggled at times, this is an offense they should perform well against. Give me the Longhorns -4.5! 

40* (CFB) - Sharp Money ATS MASSACRE (Texas A&M -8.5) 

I think the overwhelming perception with Texas A&M coming off that huge upset against Alabama is they are primed for a letdown. I get the thought process, but I'm not sure it's as big a concern given the spread and the opponent. 

It would be one thing if the books were asking the Aggies to cover more than two TDs, which I think they should be, but they aren't all we need is for Texas A&M to win by a TD and FG. 

I also would be a lot more worried if the Aggies were playing a SEC team with some upside like Ole Miss, Arkansas or Kentucky, but instead they are playing a Missouri team that I believe is only better than Vanderbilt in the SEC. 

I also think it's a perfect matchup for this Texas A&M offense that finally showed some life in their shocking win over Alabama. It was like a switch flipped for sophomore quarterback Zach Calzada in that game against the Crimson Tide. He went 21 of 31 for 285 yards and 3 scores. he had just 5 TD passes the previous 4 games, which saw him throw it 128 times. 

I think it can be hard to jump on a performance like that when you have seen so much bad leading up, but it's something I'll take a shot on against this awful Missouri defense. 

Not sure how much you have seen of this Tigers team, but they can't stop anything. Missouri is giving up 37.5 ppg, 499 ypg and 6.8 yards/play. They are giving up 288 ypg and 6.1 yards/carry vs the run and allowing 8.2 passing yards per attempt. That's with the Tigers 3 toughest games being against Kentucky, Tennessee and BC. 

I know the Missouri offense can score, but this is a very talented Texas A&M defense that hadn't allowed more than 26 points in a game before allowing 38 to Alabama. Mizzu aint even close to the Tide on the offensive side of the ball. I think the Aggies are going to win here along the lines of 37-20. Give me Texas A&M -8.5! 

50* (CFB) - Big Ten PLAY OF THE YEAR (Rutgers -2) 

I was dead wrong grabbing the points with Rutgers last week at home against Michigan State. As painful as that was to watch, it's not going to keep me from backing the Scarlet Knights at basically a pick'em on the road against Northwestern. 

I just don't think the books have adjusted enough for how down the Wildcats are this year. Northwestern is just 2-3 thru their first 5 games. There only wins are against FCS foe Indiana State and an awful Ohio team. They got blown out at home by Michigan State, were lucky to only by 7 on the road vs Duke and got absolutely steamrolled by Nebraska 56-7 last time out. 

As for Rutgers, this feels like a good buy low spot on them The excitement around this Scarlet Knights team has faded after 3 straight losses and back-to-back games where they didn't sniff a cover. This is a team that started 3-0 and covered their first 4, so there's been a lot of value betting them overall. 

You also have to factor in just how brutal a stretch their last 3 games were. They went on the road to face Michigan, before returning home to host Ohio State and Michigan State. It looked to me like they were just out of gas in that game against the Spartans and it probably had a lot to do with their defense giving up 4 60+ yard TDs in that game. 

I think they bounce back in a big way here against a Northwestern team that has struggled to score and aren't any good defensively. Wildcats are giving up only 27.2 ppg, but that's skewed big time by the 6 points they allowed in their games against Indiana State and Ohio. They gave up 326 on the ground to the Spartans, 208 to Duke (had 350 passing) and 427 to Nebraska.

Rutgers has covered all 3 games where they have rushed for 150 or more yards. Scarlet Knights have also been a road covering machine here of late. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road the last 2 seasons. Give me Rutgers -2! 

50* (CFB) - Friday Night MAX UNIT Top Play (North Texas +11) 

I really like the value we are getting with the Mean Green as a double-digit home dog against Marshall. Even though Marshall is just 1-3 in their last 4 games, they are going to get the money in this matchup. A lot of that being the fact that North Texas comes in just 1-4 with their only win coming in their opener against Northwestern St. 

What they overlook is the brutal schedule that the Mean Green have been up against to this point. Their other 4 games have come against SMU, UAB, La Tech and Missouri. The only one of those at home was against UAB. 

The other big thing that I believe has North Texas undervalued is they just recently made the full move to junior quarterback Austin Aune after splitting reps between Aune and fellow junior Jace Ruder. Don't get me wrong, neither is all that great, but Aune at least takes care of the ball. He has a 5/2 TD/INT ratio, where Ruder had a 3/5 ratio. 

Aune also seemed to play better as the main guy in that game, as he threw for 305 yards and 4 scores. Also rushed for 59 yards on 15 attempts. 

Another with Marshall and why they get some love, they got pretty good offensive numbers. Thundering Herd are scoring 34.8 ppg and averaging 515 ypg. As good as they might be, starting quarterback Grant Wells doesn't take care of the ball. He's got a 8/9 TD/INT ratio and if you only look at games vs FBS teams that ratio is 5/8. In his 3 road starts this season he has just 2 TD passes and 4 interceptions. Give me North Texas +11! 

40* (CFB) - Prime Time ATS NO-BRAINER (Va Tech +1) 

There's a lot here that makes me really like the Hokies as a slim 1-point home dog against the Fighting Irish. You got a Notre Dame team that's in a massive letdown spot after playing two massive games the last two weeks against Wisconsin and Cincinnati. They had that magical 4th quarter and were able to beat the Badgers 41-13 in a very misleading final and then lost 13-24 at home to Cincinnati. 

That game against the Bearcats was huge, as it now creates a massive roadblock for Notre Dame to the playoffs. If Cincinnati now goes undefeated and they probably should, there's no way they are taking the Irish over the Bearcats and I see no scenario where both could be an option. 

It's just not easy coming off two games as hyped up as Notre Dame's last two and play well when you just lost the last of those two. Not only that, they are playing a Virginia Tech team that has had two full weeks to get ready for this game coming off a bye. Throw in this being a night game in Blacksburg and the entire deck is really stacked against the Irish in this one. Give me the Hokies +1! 

50* (CFB) - TCU/TX Tech BIG 12 PLAY OF THE WEEK (Texas Tech +2) 

I'm shocked we are getting the Red Raiders as a home dog in this game. I just think the thing with Texas Tech, is people can't get how bad this team looked a couple weeks ago at Texas out of their head. The Red Raiders were annihilated 70-35 in a game where nothing went their way. 

You can't let that one game skew how you see a team. I was really impressed with how Tech responded from that ugly loss to the Longhorns by going on the road and beating a good West Virginia team 23-20. 

You also have a night game in Lubbock, which I think adds even more to the home field edge for Texas Tech in this game. 

As for TCU, I don't love them in this spot. The Horned Frogs just laid it all on the line at home against Texas last week and came up painfully short in a 27-32 loss. 

I also want to point out I think some of the value with Texas Tech comes from an overreaction to the fact that they are down their starting quarterback Tyler Shough. It's not all that bad, as the Red Raiders have a pretty good backup in senior Henry Colombi. He had 324 yards and 3 TDs in relief of Shough in the loss to Texas and 266 last week against WVU. I really think the wrong team is favored in this one. Give me the Red Raiders +2! 

50* (CFB) Vegas Line Mistake PLAY OF THE YEAR (East Carolina +10.5) 

I think we are getting an absolute gift here with East Carolina as a 10.5-point dog against UCF. The Knights have no business being a double-digit favorite in this spot. 

It's really been a disappointing start to the season for UCF. The Knights came into this season thinking they were good enough to dethrone Cincinnati in the AAC and play in a New Year's Six Bowl. 

That's no longer the case. Not only because they have started 2-2, but their star quarterback, Dillon Gabriel is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Gabriel was injured on the final play in a 35-42 loss at Louisville. First game without him the Knights go on the road and lose 30-34 to Navy as a 15-point favorite. Keep in mind that's a Navy team that had lost 49-7 to Marshall and 23-3 to Air Force. 

Backup Mikey Keene wasn't terrible, completing 16 of 26 for 178 yards and 2 scores against the Midshipmen, but there's a clear drop off at the most important position on the field. 

I think it really puts this Knights team behind the 8-ball, because their defense hasn't shown the ability to stop anyone with a pulse. In their 3 games against FBS teams, they have allowed 31 to Boise, 42 to Louisville and 34 to Navy. 

This ECU offense is no joke. The Pirates are averaging 32.2 ppg, 442 ypg and 6.2 yards/play, which becomes even more impressive when you consider the opponents they have played are only giving up on average 26.7 ppg, 387 ypg and 5.6 yards/play. This is a game the Pirates not only can cover, but I given them a legit shot here to win outright. Give me ECU +10.5! 

40* (CFB) - Situational Letdown SHARP PLAY (Illinois +10) 

I could be dead wrong here, but there's no way I'm passing up on the Fighting Illini as a double-digit home dog against Wisconsin. This is 100% a fade of the Badgers given what's taken place to this point. 

Wisconsin came into this season as the team most thought would win the Big Ten West and had a shot at winning the conference and making the 4-team playoff. That's not how it's played out over the first 4 weeks. The Badgers are 1-3 with two home losses, both in conference play. 

Their offense has been an absolute nightmare. Graham Mertz has been as big a disappointment as I can remember for a Big Ten QB. He might not be able to go and if they had a guy they thought could help them, he would have got a shot by now, which is why I got low expectations for junior Chase Wolf if he has to go. 

That's just one injury Wisconsin is dealing with. The Badgers got a laundry list of guys who are questionable to play. 

Hard to blowout teams on the road when you can't score and this Illinois defense hasn't been all that bad. Their biggest weakness is also stopping the pass, which is by far the weakness of that Wisconsin offense. 

This is also the first true road game of the season for Wisconsin. Their only other game away from home was that neutral site showdown with Notre Dame at Soldier Field. Give me Illinois +10! 

40* (CFB) Public Money VEGAS ATS SHOCKER (FSU +17.5) 

I'll take my chances with Florida State covering the 17.5-point spread against North Carolina on Saturday. I just think this is way too many points for the Seminoles to be catching in this spot. FSU finally got the monkey off their back last week and got their first win of the season. They beat Syracuse 33-30 on a last second field goal after they had blown a double-digit 4th quarter lead. 

This will be the most confidence that the Seminoles have had going into a week of practice since their Week 1 game against Notre Dame. 

One of the big decisions leading up to that game against the Orange was at quarterback. FSU decided to bench mistake prone McKenzie Milton with the dual threat Jordan Travis. While Travis only threw for 131 yards, he rushed for a team-high 113 yards, as the Seminoles put up 247 on the ground. 

I like the matchup for FSU with Travis under center. One of the big things that killed UNC in their shocking 22-45 loss at Georgia Tech was they couldn't keep Yellow Jackets' QB Jeff Sims in check. Sims had 10 carries for 128 yards and 3 scores. 

If FSU can get Travis and the run game going, it's going to help limit the possessions for UNC's Sam Howell, which in turns makes the amount of points we are getting more and more valuable. 

Last year a really bad Seminoles team upset the Tar Heels 31-28 as a 13.5-point home dog. It's not out of the question they do it again. Give me FSU +17.5! 

50* (CFB) - Virginia/Louisville ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK (Louisville -2.5) 

Some might be hesitant to lay the short number with Louisville coming off that crushing 34-37 OT loss at Wake Forest, but I love the Cardinals at this price. I've watched quite a bit of Virginia the last couple of weeks. I laid the short number at home against WF and paid the price, but didn't hesitate to go right back with them as a 6-point dog at Miami last week. 

The big thing to note with playing them against Miami, is that was more a fade of the Hurricanes, who were going to be without starting QB King than it was a play on the Cavaliers. 

I like Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong, but sometimes a great signal caller isn't enough. I think that's the case here. I think the Cavaliers are one of the worst defensive teams in the ACC and it will be an absolute nightmare for them trying to contain one of the most underrated players in the country in Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham. 

The guy has completed 64% of his attempts for 1,307 yards and has a 7-2 TD/INT ratio. He's also rushed for 309 yards and 10 scores. 

When you have a quarterback who is putting up those kind of numbers and that team isn't getting blown up by the media, it makes for a very underrated team. 

If we can just get some stops from that Louisville defense, this could get ugly. Cardinals definitely are prepared for what they will see with Armstrong, as they have already faced two QBs who are better than him in Ole Miss' Matt Corral and UCF's Dillon Gabriel. Give me the Cardinals -2.5! 

40* (CFB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Rutgers +5) 

I'm going to take the Rutgers Scarlet Knights as a 5-point home dog against the No. 11 ranked Michigan State Spartans. I think more times than not you can bank on an unranked team catching points against a ranked team, especially at home. I've watched both of these teams and I'm not so sure Rutgers shouldn't be favored here. I definitely don't think Sparty should be laying more than a field goal here. 

You talked about this quite a bit earlier in the season when you gave out Rutgers as a short road dog at Syracuse. This is a much improved Rutgers team from what we have seen in past years. They brought back 21 starters and were heading into year two under head coach Greg Schiano, who is in his second stint with the Scarlet Knights. 

I'm a big Schiano fan. He completely flipped this program his first go around in New Brunswick. In his last 7 seasons, Rutgers went 56-33 going to a bowl game in all but one of those years. Who knows where this program would be if he didn't leave to be the head coach of the TB Bucs back in 2012. 

I think some people might be hesitant to play Rutgers here after just going up against two of the Big Ten powers in Michigan and Ohio State. They kept it close in a loss at the Wolverines, but were completely dominated in a 52-13 loss last week to Ohio State. 

I would buy this being a letdown spot if they had pulled off the upset in one of those games, but this is a team that is still searching for their first conference win. I don't think they have any trouble here getting back up for an undefeated and ranked Spartans team. 

I did go against Michigan State a few weeks ago with Miami and that play went up in flames with the Spartans winning 38-17. I definitely wasn't giving the Spartans the respect they deserve, but I also think I was way too high on the Hurricanes. 

I just think we are far enough into the season, where people are buying into this Michigan State team. I'm just not one of them. The Spartans have played one of the easiest schedules in the country so far. 

I also think we really learned a lot about just how good this Spartans team is in their home night game against Nebraska a few weeks ago. Michigan State managed to win that game 23-20, but were lucky to do so. The Cornhuskers outgained them 442-254. Spartans didn't have a single first down in the 2nd half or OT. If they don't get a 62-yard punt return for a TD late in the 4th quarter, they lose that game. 

Nebraska was really able to shutdown Michigan State's star RB Kenneth Walker. He had just 61 yards on 19 attempts. I really think if you can limit him, this Spartans offense just doesn't have the playmakers on the outside to do a whole lot. A big reason why I think this Mich St team is in big trouble going forward. 

Rutgers did give up 208 rushing yards to Ohio State last week, but a lot of that is there's just so many freak athletes you have to account for with the Buckeyes. Even with that poor showing, if you want to call it that, they are still giving up just 3.8 yards carry against teams that average 5.2 yards/carry. 

I'm pretty confident here that Schiano and his staff will be able to put together a game plan to limit Walker and win this game rather comfortably Give me the Scarlet Knights +5! 

50* (CFB) - Temple/Cincinnati AAC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Temple +29.5) 

I absolutely love Temple catching 29.5 on the road against Temple Friday night. It's just a brutal spot for the Bearcats. Cincinnati just played it's two biggest games on their schedule the last two times out at Indiana and at Notre Dame (did have a bye between games). The bigger of the two being last week's 24-13 win over the Irish. On top of that, one of their toughest games left on the schedule is next week's home game vs UCF.

It's just going to be near impossible for the Bearcats to bring the kind of energy and effort needed to win in a blowout against a team they know they are much better than. 

I think a flat Bearcats team will allow the Owls to keep this much closer than expected in the 1st half and by the time Cincinnati gets it in gear it won't be enough to cover the massive number. At the same time, if by chance the Bearcats come out swinging, the back door figures to be wide open. 

Another thing that I think adds even more value here, is this isn't a bad Temple team and they are coming into this game with a lot of confidence after last week's 34-31 win over Memphis as a double-digit home dog. 

I really think there defense is underrated. It doesn't look good giving up 30.2 ppg, but a lot of that has been them getting put in bad spots. The Owls are only giving up 313 ypg and 4.6 yards/play. I know the Bearcats have played the tougher schedule, but it's worth noting that everyone thinks this Cincinnati defense is elite and they are giving up very similar numbers at 309 ypg and 4.3 yards/play. Give me the Owls +29.5! 

40* (CFB) - Thursday Night ATS MONEY-MAKER (Tulane +6) 

I'll go opposite of the public and grab the 6-points at home with Tulane on Thursday. Public has been coming in heavy on Houston in this one and the line hasn't really moved off of 6. That tells me the books are fine with needing the Green Wave in this one. 

Houston comes into this game 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS on the season. They have won 4 in a row since losing their opener to Texas Tech, covering in 3 of the last 4. 

What gets overlooked is the schedule the Cougars have played to this point. One of my favorite strength of schedule rankings has it 119th out of 130. That's a bad Navy team they barely scraped by against at home 28-20 and don't be fooled by last weeks' 45-10 thrashing of Tulsa. That's not a very good Golden Hurricanes team. 

*Note that game against Tulsa was a weekday game last week and a lot of people were on Houston as a short road dog. Hard to keep covering as a big public team, because the books just keep inflating the number. 

Tulane is 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS, having failed to cover in each of their last 3 games. Thing with the Green Wave is their schedule has been one of the toughest (19th toughest). They have played true road games at Oklahoma and Ole Miss, as well as a home game against a good UAB team and a road game against a up and coming East Carolina squad. 

I just think it has Tulane way undervalued here and I love them in this spot. The Green Wave have their backs full against the wall. They desperately need a win here to have any shot at making a bowl. 

I also think you got to bump up the home field edge in these weekday games. While it only seats 30,000, you can bet Yulman Stadium will be up for this prime time action. 

I'll take the points as insurance, but I got a good feeling here that the Green Wave win this game outright. Play Tulane +6! 

40* (CFB) - Late Night VEGAS INSIDER (Fresno St -10) 

I will gladly lay just 10-points on the road with Fresno State as they make the trip overseas to play Hawaii. It's never easy playing the Rainbow Warriors on the road, but I don't think the long trip is going to be enough to keep the Bulldogs from winning here by at least double-digits. 

Everyone is talking about BYU and Cincinnati as the two best non Power 5 teams this year, but I'm not so sure that's the case. Worst case Fresno State deserves to be in the conversation with what they have done. The Bulldogs went on the road and gave a really good Oregon team all they could handle in a 24-31 loss and later went on the road and beat a great UCLA team 40-37 as a 10.5-point dog. 

I know they laid an egg and only beat a bad UNLV team 38-30 last week and were trailing in the 4th quarter of that game. I just think that was a huge letdown spot for Fresno State off their big win over UCLA. 

I can't imagine head coach Kalen Deboer was thrilled in the slightest with how his team played against UNLV. After a tough week of practice, I think the Bulldogs come out here locked in from the start and if that's the case I don't think Hawaii has much of a shot of keeping this close. Keep in  mind we have already seen the Rainbow Warriors lost 44-10 at UCLA and 45-27 at Oregon State. They also scored just 13 points at home against San Jose State. Give me Fresno State -10! 

40* (CFB) - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT (UCLA -3) 

I really like what I've seen out of this UCLA team this year. The Bruins are off to a 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS start with their only loss coming in a crazy 37-40 loss at home to a really good Fresno State team. UCLA crushed Hawaii 44-10 as a 17.5-point favorite, beat LSU at home 38-27 as a 2-point dog and took down Stanford on the road 35-24 as a 4-point favorite last week. 

Arizona State is also 3-1, but have not been nearly as impressive. The Sun Devils didn't cover in their opener as a 45-point favorite against Southern Utah, winning 41-14. They then only beat UNLV 37-10 as a 35-point favorite and lose outright 17-27 as a 3.5-point favorite at BYU. They got their first cover of the season last week in a 35-13 win over Colorado. I know the Buffs had that near upset of Texas A&M, but they also lost to Minnesota 30-0 and we just watched the Gophers follow up that win with an outright loss at home to Bowling Green as a 30-point favorite. 

There's no denying that the Sun Devils have a great young talent at quarterback in Jayden Daniels, but he just doesn't have the playmakers at running back or receiver for this offense to really take off. Nothing speaks more to that than the fact that Daniels has just 2 TD passes in 4 games, especially when you look at who they have played. 

I just don't think Daniels and that Arizona State offense has the goods to keep up with UCLA's high-powered offense on the road. This line suggest these two would be a pick'em on a neutral site and that's just not close given what I've seen. This is the year to buy stock in Chip Kelly and the Bruins. Give me UCLA -3! 

50* (CFB) - Pac-12 PLAY OF THE MONTH (Oregon St -2) 

I will gladly take my chances with Oregon State laying less than a field goal at home against Washington. Who would have thought the Huskies would be an underdog on the road against the Beavers this early in the season. However, watching these two teams play, I not only think Oregon State should be favored, but I feel like we are getting quite the discount on the home team in this one. 

I get the Huskies have kinda right the ship after starting the season 0-2 with a shocking 7-13 loss at home to Montana as a 22.5-point favorite and getting steamrolled on the road by Michigan 10-31 as a 6.5-point dog. They have since crushed Arkansas State 52-3 as 17.5-point favorite and knocked off Cal 31-24 in a failed cover as a 7.5-point favorite. 

Biggest thing to keep in mind is that Arkansas State program is way down this year. They are 1-3 with their only win coming against a FCS team (their head coach and QB both left for Utah State). Cal is also 1-3 with their only win coming against a FCS team. 

This Washington offense does nothing to get you excited and the defense isn't nearly as good as the numbers show. Huskies are only giving up 17.8 ppg and 336 ypg, but we saw them give up 31 to Michigan, who looked pedestrian in their latest game against Rutgers. The Wolverines rushed for 343 yards against Washington. Cal had over 450 yards, as they rushed for 138 and threw for 319. Golden Bears outgained the Huskies 457 to 326. 

As for Oregon State, it's all really been building up to this season for them. They are now in the 4th year under head coach Jonathan Smith, who has really transformed that offense. The Beavers come in averaging 38.3 ppg and 474 ypg and that's against teams who on average are giving up 30.7 ppg and just 376 ypg. Chance Nolan is playing exceptional football at quarterback. He's completed 72.3% of his attempts for 847 yards and a 9-2 TD-INT ratio. He's also averaging 7.2 yards/carry on the ground. Just a tick better than their lead back B.J. Tayler, who has 422 yards and 7 TDs with a 6.9 ypc. 

The defense has really been the unit that has held the Beavers back in Smith's first 3 years. They are far from great on that side of the ball, but they definitely looked improved. Their run defense has been phenomenal, as they are allowing just 90 ypg and 3 yards/carry. They haven't allowed more than 30 points and have played road games at both Purdue and USC. This is a plus matchup against this putrid Washington offense and the defense should feed off what figures to be an electric crowd. Give me the Beavers -2! 

40* (CFB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Nebraska -11.5) 

I will take my chances with the Cornhuskers laying less than two touchdowns at home against Northwestern on Saturday. I think a lot of people, including myself, wrote off this Nebraska team after they opened the season with that ugly 22-30 loss at Illinois in Week Zero. 

That game is looking more and more like a fluke with how well the Cornhuskers have played in the games following. Nebraska took care of business against both Fordham (52-7) and Buffalo (28-3) at home. Then they nearly knocked off Oklahoma in a 16-23 loss as a 22.5-point favorite. They then lost in OT at Michigan State 20-23 in a game they should have won. This team is a lot closer to being 5-0 than people think. 

On the flip side of this, I think you could make a pretty strong argument that Northwestern is the worst team in the Big Ten this year. The Wildcats lost by 17 at home to Michigan State in their opener, giving up 326 rushing yards to the Spartans. They also lost 23-30 at Duke, where the Blue Devils had over 550 yards of total offense. Northwestern's two wins have come against Indiana State and Ohio at home, which isn't saying much. 

I would be shocked here if Nebraska didn't have more than 500 yards of offense in this game and if you have been watching this Cornhuskers team closely, their defense has really been playing well. I just don't see how the Wildcats keep this close. I would be shocked if Nebraska doesn't win this game by at least 3 scores. Give me the Cornhuskers -11.5! 

40* (CFB) - Public Money ATS MONEYMAKER  (Mississippi St +7.5) 

I will gladly take my chances here with Mississippi State catching 7.5 on the road against Texas A&M. I just don't know what Texas A&M has done to warrant being this big of a favorite against a quality team like the Bulldogs. 

It to me just feels like the Aggies are still being overvalued based on how good everyone thought they were going to be this year. There were all kinds of people talking about Texas A&M being good enough to dethrone Alabama in the SEC West. 

They just got their first real test of the season and failed, losing 10-20 to Arkansas in a neutral site game at Jerry's World. It really wasn't that close, as the Razorbacks outgained the Aggies 443 to 272. 

Texas A&M is really lucky they are 2-2 and completely out of it, as they need a late TD in the 4th quarter to sneak out a 10-7 win against Colorado. A game where they had just 288 total yards. 

So that's two games against Power 5 teams, where the offense hasn't scored more than 10 points or gained more than 300 yards. 

Let's also not overlook at what Colorado has done since nearly beating the Aggies. The very next week the Buffaloes lost 0-30 at home to Minnesota, who we just saw lose outright as a 30-point favorite to Bowling Green. They followed that up with a 13-35 loss at Arizona State and that Sun Devils team hasn't looked anything like what we thought. 

I get Mississippi State isn't a real threat in the SEC West, but I do feel like Mike Leach has this team headed in the right direction. I was on them and lost last week in their 25-28 loss to LSU. While the Bulldogs never really had a shot to win that game, they did outgain the Tigers 486 to 343 and if anything I feel like it's created a buy low spot on them. 

Keep in mind Mississippi State has that impressive 24-10 win at home over NC State, who we just saw upset Clemson and were robbed by the refs in a 29-31 loss at Memphis in a massive sandwich spot between that game with the Wolfpack and Tigers. Would not surprise me at all if the Bulldogs won this outright. Give me Mississippi State +7.5! 

40* (CFB) - Prime Time ATS SHOCKER (Oklahoma State -3.5) 

I'll be the first two admit that I didn't think this Oklahoma State team was going to be any good in 2021, but here we are a month into the season and the Cowboys are sitting 4-0 and have covered in each of their last two games. 

My big concern with Oklahoma State was the offense and my lack of trust with quarterback Spencer Sanders. While I'm not ready to make Sanders a Heisman contender, he couldn't have played much better than he did last week at home against K-State, throwing for 344 yards and 2 scores against a really good Wildcats defense. 

I think the Cowboys are a team that is playing with a ton of confidence right now and with a bye week on deck before they have to go on the road to face Texas and ISU, there's no reason for Oklahoma State to not be 100% invested in this game against Baylor, especially with this being a night game at Boone Pickens Stadium. 

On the flip side of this, I think this is a good spot to sell high on the Bears. Baylor is coming off a huge 31-29 upset win at home over then No. 14 Iowa State. A game they really had no business winning when you look at the box score, as the Cyclones had a 479 to 282 edge in total yards. I just think it's going to be tough for Baylor to come out with same kind of energy they had in that game at home against ISU. I just don't trust that offense on the road against a good Oklahoma State defense. 

Big overreaction in my opinion with the line, as we see Baylor go from being a 7-point home dog to a mere 3.5-point road dog against what I think is a very similar opponent in terms of talent. Give me Oklahoma State -3.5! 

40* (CFB) - Situational ATS MASSACRE (UTSA -21) 

I think we are getting quite the discount here with UTSA as a mere 21-point home favorite against a bad UNLV team. The value here stems from the fact that the Rebels are coming off a near shocking upset at Fresno State, where they only lost 30-38 as a 30-point dog and they had a 30-29 lead in the 4th quarter of that game. 

I just think given what we had seen out of UNLV in their first 3 games, you can really just pinpoint that near upset to the Bulldogs not playing up to their potential. Fresno State was coming off that huge 40-37 upset win over UCLA the week before and it just looked like they were sleepwalking for the 1st half of that game. Keep in mind UNLV jumped out to 14-0 lead in the 1st quarter and were outscored 38-16 the rest of the way. 

As for UTSA, this is a team that I think is a lot better than people think. They come into this game 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS. I know Illinois is not a great Power 5 program, but they beat them on the road early in the year and they just knocked off Memphis 31-28 on the road. 

I was really impressed with that win over the Tigers, as they fell behind 21-0 less than 8 minutes into the 1st quarter and went on to outscore Memphis 31-7 the rest of the way, winning the game on a last second field goal. 

UTSA is averaging 37.3 ppg and 444 ypg and are facing a UNLV defense that is giving up 39.5 ppg, 472 ypg and 6.7 yards/play. The Roadrunners are also giving up just 17.8 ppg and 285 ypg and prior to their good showing against Fresno, the Rebels had scored just 13 points on 285 total yards in their previous 2 games vs Arizona St and Iowa State. I really don't think this game will be close. Give me UTSA -21! 

50* (CFB) - SEC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Kentucky +8.5) 

I love Kentucky catching 8.5-points at home against the Gators. Even though Kentucky comes in 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, everyone is going to lay the points with Florida in this game. It all stems from how well the Gators played at home against Alabama, losing by a score of just 29-31 as a 14-point favorite. They also followed up that great showing with a win and cover against Tennessee, beating the Vols 38-14 as a 19-point favorite. 

The public is going to just assume this team is going to keep covering, but this is a bit of a letdown spot for them. Playing so well against Alabama and then getting the Vols at home under the lights last week. Now they go on the road against a Kentucky team they have owned. 

Florida hasn't lost at Kentucky since 1986. A streak that I think it's major jeopardy. This might be the best team Mark Stoops has had in Lexington. As has been the case for the last few years, Kentucky is really strong on the defensive side of the ball, especially up front. Wildcats are giving up just 2.9 yards/carry vs the run, holding teams 1.1 yards/carry under their season average. It's no secret that to have success against Florida, you got to stop the run. 

I know the Wildcats only scored 16 last week at South Carolina, but this is as balanced as Kentucky has been offensively in years. They got a legit weapon at wide receiver in Nebraska transfer Wan'Dale Robinson. He's got 25 catches for 402 yards. Kentucky leading receiver in all of 2020 was Josh Ali at 473 yards. 

I also think that while Florida isn't a bad defensive team, they aren't nearly as good on that side as they were a year ago. They just gave up 148 yards on the ground and 275 thru the air to Tennessee. 

Add in this being their first real road test (only other road game was at USF) and the energy that the Wildcats are going to get from playing in front of a rowdy home crowd under the lights and we got an upset in the making. Give me Kentucky +8.5! 

40* (CFB) - Ole Miss/Alabama SEC NO-BRAINER (Ole Miss +14.5) 

I got no problem taking my chances with Ole Miss as a 14.5-point road dog at Alabama. I just think the Crimson Tide have no business laying more than two touchdowns in this game. While I think it's not as strong as it was coming into the season, there's still quite a few people who think this Alabama team is a step above the rest of college football. 

Because of that, we are seeing the Crimson Tide asked to lay ridiculous numbers like this against really good teams. Just a couple of weeks ago they closed as a 14-point favorite at Florida, much higher than that in the days leading up to the game, and barely walked out of Gainesville with a 31-29 win. 

I know there's a lot of hype with that Gator team and they are ranked ahead of Ole Miss right now, but I think the Rebels should not only be ranked ahead of Florida, but much much higher. 

Say what you want about Lane Kiffin and his past, he's turned this Ole Miss program into a national power in the blink of eye. He's not only a great coach himself and offensive guru, he's done a remarkable job of bringing in great assistant coaches. 

It also helps he might have the best quarterback in the country in Matt Corral. He's looks even better than last year, when he threw for 365 yards and 2 TDs on his way to guiding the Rebels to 48 points and 647 total yards against Alabama. The Crimson Tide did manage to win the game 63-48, but let's not forget that Alabama only led 49-45 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. 

I'm confident that as long as Corral doesn't get hurt, the Rebels are going to be able to move the ball and put up points. 

The thing that really kept Ole Miss from the upset over Alabama last year was their defense. I know it's only been 3 games, but the eye test for me has me thinking they are greatly improved. 

The game the really stands out to me is their opener against Louisville, where Ole Miss pitched a shutout in the first half and didn't really give up anything to the Cardinals until it was well out of reach in the 2nd half. Since that game Louisville has put up 30+ points in 3 straight, including 42 on UCF. 

I also think it's worth pointing out that Alabama had those 3 straight TD drives to start out that game against Florida. They scored just 10 points the rest of the game. I don't think this is nearly as explosive an offense for the Crimson Tide as last year. 

Last thing for me on this game, which is a pretty big factor, Ole Miss has had two weeks to prepare for this game after a bye in Week 4. 

I'll definitely take the points with Ole Miss, but I'm definitely going to have a little bit sprinkled on the money line in this game. Alabama's only loss at home the last 5 years was in 2019 when Joe Burrow and LSU beat them 46-51 as a 6-point dog. Is it that crazy to think we might be seeing a similar run by Ole Miss this year? Give me the Rebels +14.5! 

50* (CFB) - BYU/Utah St MAX UNIT Top Play (Utah State +9) 

I really like the spot and the price we are getting with Utah State as a near double-digit home dog against BYU on Friday night. I not only think the Aggies will cover this game, but I think they got a legit shot at winning this game outright. 

Utah State is a team that I had my eye on coming into this season, as I thought they were going to be greatly improved from a year ago, when they went just 1-5 in the 6 games they played. I thought they made a great hire at head coach with Blake Anderson, who really did a great job in his 7 seasons at Arkansas State. 

Not only that, but Anderson was able to convince his QB at Arkansas State to come with him in Logan Bonner. This guy made 15 starters with the Red Wolves, threw for more than 3,000 yards with a 30-9 TD-INT ratio. 

He played about as poorly as he could in last week's 27-3 loss at home to Boise State, but that was not nearly as lopsided as the final score. In fact, Utah State outgained the Broncos 443 to 435. 

It really came down to just a brutal start to the game. Aggies first 4 drives saw them throw two interceptions, turn it over on downs and a missed field goal (blocked). 

As for BYU, I'll be the first to admit that the Cougars are faring way better than I expected after losing a guy like Zach Wilson at quarterback. They got two really impressive wins over Utah and Arizona State. 

One thing to point out here that I really like is that this will be BYU's first true road game of 2021. You also got the Cougars' star QB, Jaren Hall possibly playing at less than 100%. Hall injured his ribs late in the win over Arizona State and was unable to play last week against USF. His ability to run and create plays is a big part of what makes him great. He's rushed for 166 yards on just 20 attempts (8.3 yards/carry). I just wonder how confident he will be running the ball and risking reinjuring those ribs. 

No team is safe in college football this year and with the big home field edge that comes in these weekday games, this is just too good a price to pass up with the Aggies. Give me Utah State +9! 

50* (CFB) - Virginia/Miami ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK (Virginia +6) 

I love Virginia as a 6-point dog against Miami. This is the perfect buy low spot on the Cavaliers. Everyone was on Virginia as a slim home favorite against Wake Forest last Friday night. It couldn't have gone much worse for the Cavaliers. They trailed 20-3 at the half and would go on to lose 37-17. 

No question the Demon Deacons deserved to win that game, but it wasn't as bad as the score would lead on. Virginia actually outgained WF 506 to 473 with a 31-24 edge in first downs. 

As long as Brennan Armstrong is starting at quarterback, this Cavaliers offense is going to put up numbers. Armstrong is second in the country with 1,705 passing yards and has an incredible 13-3 TD-INT ratio. 

This just might be the team to back as a dog and not a favorite with how they can score. Either way, I like that offense against what I feel is an overrated Miami defense. We saw Alabama throw for 354 yards on them and Michigan State put up 193 on the ground with another 261 thru the air. 

I also don't love the Hurricanes offense. Sure they put up 322 rushing yards last week against CCSU. Big deal. They averaged just 105 rush/yards in their first 3 games against FBS defenses. They also aren't expected to have starting quarterback D'Eriq King for this game, leaving them pretty inexperienced at the most important position on the field. Give me Virginia +6! 

50* (CFB) Big 12 Conf PLAY OF THE YEAR (Kansas St +6) 

I absolutely love the value here with Kansas State as a 6-point road dog against Oklahoma State. I'm not 100% sure the right team is favored. I was way down on the Cowboys coming into this year and I still think they aren't a good team after their 3-0 start. To me, it's the perfect spot to sell high on this team. 

Oklahoma State only beat Missouri State 23-16 in their season opener at home. Really lucky the defense stepped up in the red zone and held the Bears to 3 field goals (two inside 35 yards). They then only beat Tulsa 28-23 and were trailing 7-14 going into the 4th quarter. Last week they somehow beat Boise State 21-20 after falling behind 7-20 in the 1st half. Cowboys are 3-0 and yet are outing teams on the year 337 to 329. 

K-State is also 3-0 and probably would be getting a little more respect if they didn't lose starting QB Skyler Thompson to a knee injury. This is a team that can without great QB play, as they run it extremely well and are outstanding on the defensive side of the ball. Wildcats are giving up just 1.9 yards/rush and if they take away the run from the Cowboys their offense is in major trouble. 

Adding to that, since Mike Gundy took over as head coach, Oklahoma State is 15-25 ATS vs teams who are giving up 3.25 or less yards/carry. K-State has covered 7 of their 10 road games under Chris Klieman and won outright in 4 of their 9 as a road dog. Give me the Wildcats +6! 

50* (CFB) - Big Ten Conf PLAY OF THE WEEK (Michigan St -4.5)

I'll be the first to admit that I greatly undervalued this Michigan State team in last week's game against Miami. They should have been the ones that were the near touchdown favorite. The Spartans won the game 38-17. 

Michigan State has one of the best players not everyone knows about in Wake Forest transfer running back Kenneth Walker III. He had 172 yards on 27 attempts (6.4 yards/carry). He leads the country with 493 rushing yards. 

Opposing defenses have no choice but to load the box to try and stop him from taking over the game and even then it's not enough. It's really opened up things for quarterback Payton Thorne. He's completed 62.3% of his attempts with a 9-0 TD-INT ratio. 

Nebraska is giving up 156 yards/game and 4.3 yards/carry vs the run, which to me is concerning. They have played 3 awful teams in Illinois, Fordham and Buffalo and the other was against an Oklahoma team that likes to throw it with their stud QB.

Speaking of the Sooners, I really feel like Nebraska is getting a lot of respect for keeping it much closer than expect in last week's 16-23 loss to Oklahoma. All you heard about that game was how the Sooners were going to roll them. I just wonder if the Oklahoma players didn't let some of that go to their head. 

Adrian Martinez has put up some decent passing numbers, but I think for him to really have success they need to be able to run the ball. Something that hasn't been easy to do on the Spartans. 

You also got to take into account the difficult spot here for Nebraska. It's not going to be easy playing their second straight on the road, especially after how much they put into that game against Oklahoma. On top of that, it's going to be a rowdy atmosphere under the lights in East Lansing. Give me Michigan State -4.5! 

40* (CFB) - Prime Time ATS SLAUGHTER (UCLA -4) 

I love the spot and the price here with UCLA as a slim 4-point road favorite against Stanford. I think it's a great buy low spot on the Bruins after last week's 37-40 loss at home to Fresno State as a 10.5-point favorite. That's a really really good Fresno State team that gave Oregon all they could handle earlier in the season. 

Same time, I think we are seeing the Cardinal getting a little bit of love after their last two games. The big one was two weeks ago when they went on the road and beat USC 42-28 as a 17-point dog. They followed that up with a 41-23 win at Vandy as a 12.5-point favorite. 

UCLA couldn't have looked much better in their first two games, rolling Hawaii 44-10 and upsetting LSU 38-27 at home. It might be taking a little longer than some thought, but Chip Kelly definitely has this Bruins program on the rise. 

I just don't think Stanford is going to be able to keep pace offensively with UCLA. The Bruins are averaging 4.8 yards/carry vs teams that allow 3.3. The Cardinal are giving up 5.9 yards/carry vs teams that only average 4.5. 

The Bruins are giving up 63 yards/game and 2.3 yards/carry. Stanford is only averaging 128 rush yards/game and in their lone loss, a 7-24 setback against K-State, they only had 39 rushing yards on 22 attempts. 

I give UCLA a big edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball. As long as the Bruins don't go out and turn it over a bunch, they should roll here. Give me UCLA -4! 

40* (CFB) Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Boston College +2) 

I'm going to take the Boston College +2 at home against Missouri. The Eagles come in 3-0, but I think they are still flying a bit under the radar. A lot of that has to do with the loss of starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec and the lack of quality wins they have on their resume.

I also think that while Missouri is far from an SEC power, a lot of people just see SEC vs ACC and automatically lay the short number with the Tigers without even looking into this game. 

The loss of Jurkovec is a tough blow for BC, but not all is lost with backup Dennis Grosel. I know he was a pedestrian 7 of 15 for 59 yards in last week's game against Temple, but I think that was a direct result of the Eagles feeling like they didn't need to throw with how they were running it and playing defense. That's how this team wants to win. They want to run the ball behind one of the best o-lines in the country and play solid defense. No surprise this is how they play under 2nd year head coach Jeff Hafley who worked his way up on the defensive side of the ball. 

Grosel was 11 of 14 for 199 yards the previous week against UMASS and if you remember back to last year he had that ridiculous game at Virginia to close out the year, going 32 of 46 for 520 yards and 4 TDs. If needed, I think he's more than capable of answering the call. 

As for the schedule, it's been 3 cupcake opponents for the Eagles with Colgate, UMASS and Temple. The most important thing is they dominated those games. They are +31 ppg, averaging 406 ypg and giving up just 256 ypg. Just because they haven't played anybody doesn't mean they aren't a good football team. 

As for Missouri, I got a lot of concerns with this team. They are 2-1 with wins over Central Michigan and SE Missouri St and a 28-35 loss at Kentucky. It's really what you would expect from this team if you were handicapping their first 3 games coming into the season. 

I just haven't been that impressed with how they have got there. They only beat the Chippewas 34-24 as a 14-point favorite. They needed a field goal in the final second of the 1st half to take their first lead 17-14 into intermission and they only led 24-21 midway thru the 4th quarter. That looks a lot worse after watching LSU just annihilate Central Michigan this past weekend. LSU was up 42-7 with about 10 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter before completely calling off the dogs in a 49-21 win. 

That game against Kentucky was also not as close as the score would indicate. The Wildcats outgained the Tigers 519 to 398 and if Kentucky doesn't fumble deep in Missouri territory that game is 28-7 early in the 2nd quarter. Missouri had to complete a 3rd and Goal from the 7 for their first score and scored on a 17-yard TD pass with 4 seconds on the clock in the 1st half. 

The other huge thing here with Missouri is their defense. I think there was some hope that they would be improved from last year, when they gave up 32.3 ppg and 408 ypg. It doesn't seem to be. While they are only giving up 31.3 ppg, they are allowing 456 ypg. They are giving up 269 ypg on the ground, 6.4 yards/carry. They also gave up over 300 yards passing to Central Michigan. 

That BC offensive line is going to dominate this game and I think the Eagles ball control offense could take Missouri out of their rhythm. Only Eastern Michigan is averaging fewer plays per game offensively than the Eagles through the first 3 weeks of the season. 

Lastly, I think there's some outside factors here favoring Boston College. First, you have Missouri head coach Eliah Drinkwitz saying how he wishes the Tigers were playing someone else out of conference and how he can't think of the last time Missouri even recruited a guy out of the state of UMass. He might not of meant it as a slight to the Eagles, but that's 100% how the players and coaches are going to see. 

This is also the first time that BC has got to host a SEC school since 1987. I know it's a 1 o'clock game out east, but I think it will be an electric atmosphere at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill. Give me the Eagles +2! 

40* (CFB) - Smart Money ATS SHOCKER (Texas Tech +8) 

I will gladly take my chances with the Red Raiders as a 8-point dog against the Longhorns Saturday night. I definitely think Texas should be favored at home, but no way should they be laying more than a touchdown. 

I was really high on the Red Raiders coming into this year. All signs pointed to them making a big jump from last year's 4-6 team. It's now year 3 under head coach Matt Wells, who is a guy I really like (two time MW COY). It's now a roster full of guys he's recruited for his style of play. 

Texas Tech is off to a 3-0 start. They have played a pretty easy schedule, but did beat Houston 38-21 as a 3-point dog on a neutral site. 

The Red Raiders are scoring 40.0 ppg and it's come against teams who on average allow just 27.2. They got a crazy good 7.6 yards/play, are averaging 5.7 yards/carry and completing 67.1% of their pass attempts. 

The defense is only giving up 291 ypg, 4.0 yards/play and allowing just 1.8 yards/carry vs the run. There's no reason Tech can't win this game outright and if I was making the number here it would be Texas -4. Give me the Red Raiders +8! 

50* (CFB) - SEC Conf PLAY OF THE WEEK (Miss St +2.5)

I love the Bulldogs as a home dog against LSU. The books are begging you to lay less than a field goal with the Tigers, but they got no business being favored in this game. I really think LSU is still overvalued from that title team with Burrow a couple of years ago. It's looking more and more like a fluke. 

As soon as Burrow and offensive guru Joe Brady left town, LSU has struggled to beat good teams. We already seen them lose by double-digits on the road against UCLA. That's a good Bruins team, but one a good LSU team should beat pretty handedly. 

Mississippi State is 2-1 with wins over La Tech and NC State. The lone loss was last week's 29-31 setback at Memphis. If you didn't see it, the Bulldogs got absolutely screwed in that game by a horrible call by the refs. The win that really stands out is the 24-10 victory against NC State. A game they closed as a slim home dog. 

I just really like what Mike Leach is doing in Starkville. As you would expect with a Leach offense, they sling it on just about every play. Defending the pass hasn't exactly been a strong suit of the Tigers. Last year Mississippi State had 623 passing yards in a 44-34 upset win at LSU. 

I also think the Bulldogs defense is very underrated. They are giving up just 5 yards/play, which isn't out of this world, but it's come against teams who are averaging 6.7 yards/play on the season. LSU has given up 4.6 yards/play and it's been against offenses that average 4.9 yards/play. Give me Mississippi State +2.5! 

50* (CFB) Friday Night CFB MAX UNIT Top Play (Virginia -4) 

I'll lay the 4-points at home with Virginia on Friday night. The Cavaliers will be hosting Wake Forest, who I think might be a bit overvalued coming into this game. The Demon Deacons are off to a 3-0 start and fresh off a 35-14 blowout win as a mere -4.5 point home favorite against Florida State. 

Good for them for whooping the Seminoles, but that's a bad Florida State team (I was completely wrong on the Seminoles...thought they would be much better). Their other two wins are against Old Dominion and Norfolk State. 

Not only will this be the first game that Wake is a dog, but it's also their first game away from home this year. I just think when a team plays 3 or more games at home to start the season, there's a really good chance they are going to be overvalued. Almost every team plays better at home than on the road. 

While the Demon Deacons are probably getting a little too much love, I think it's a decent buy low spot on Virginia after last week's ugly 39-59 loss to Sam Howell and the Tar Heels. That game was in North Carolina and while they had no answer for UNC's offense, their offense showed up and racked up 577 yards. 

I also think it says a lot about this team with how they responded in the 1st half. Virginia trailed 7-24 with more than 10 minutes to play in the 2nd quarter and managed to go into the half up 28-24. They just ran out of gas in the 2nd half. 

While I like Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman, the best QB in this game is Virginia's Brennan Armstrong. He went 39 of 54 for 554 yards and 4 TDs in that loss to UNC. His 1,298 passing yards in 2nd in the nation behind Fresno State's Jake Haener, who has played 1 more game. His 11 passing TDs also ranks 2nd in the country behind SMU's Tanner Mordecai, who has 16 with 7 of those coming against Abilene Christian. 

I definitely think there's an extra home field advantage in these weekday games. Not only do you get great atmosphere's in these night games with fans, but it's that much harder on the road team with 1 less day to prepare. Virginia is 11-3 ATS last 14 at home. 

Another factor for me in this game is revenge. Virginia wants to return the favor after losing 23-40 at Wake Forest last October. A game that was tied 23-23 in the 4th quarter before the Deacons scored 17 unanswered to close it out. Give me the Cavaliers -4! 

50* (CFB) - Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH (Arizona St -3.5) 

I love Arizona State as a slim 3.5-point road favorite against BYU. This is the ultimate let down spot for BYU off that shocking 26-17 home win over rival Utah as a 7-point dog. That was far from just another game for the Cougars. Beating Utah is everything to them and they had lost 9 straight in that series.

Simply put, that was BYU's Super Bowl. Even with a good Arizona State coming to town, one that's ranked ahead of the Cougars at No. 19 in the polls, it will be near impossible for BYU to bring that same energy and effort they put on display against the Utes. 

I know everyone was calling for Utah as the team to beat in the Pac-12 South, but I'm not convinced that's the case. It's not out of the question Herm Edwards' Sun Devils aren't a better team. Arizona State has looked sharp, crushing Southern Utah 41-14 and UNLV 37-10. 

I think the only thing holding people back on the Sun Devils is their schedule. Hard to get excited about a team beating up on bad teams. I think it has them flying a bit under the radar and I see them being extremely motivated in this game. They certainly won't be overlooking BYU after they just beat one of their biggest threats in the Pac-12 South. 

Let's also not forget that we are talking about a BYU team that is destined to be worse after losing a QB the caliber of Zach Wilson. The Cougars only beat Arizona 24-16 in Week 1 and were outgained in that game 426 to 368 by the Wildcats. The same Arizona team that got absolutely destroyed 38-14 at home by San Diego State last week. Give me the Sun Devils -3.5! 

40* (CFB) - Auburn/Penn St Prime Time NO-BRAINER (Penn St -6) 

I was on the Nittany Lions in their 16-10 upset win on the road against Wisconsin as a 5-point dog in Week 1. I will gladly back them laying just 6 at home against Auburn Saturday night. I was extremely high on Penn State coming into this season. I saw them as being one of the most improved teams from 2020. 

For them to win on the road against a very good Badgers team shows that. I was also impressed with how they came out and took care of business last week against Ball State 44-13 as a 22.5-point favorite. That was a massive letdown spot off the game against Wisconsin and this game against Auburn on deck. That to me further backs just how much better this year's Penn State team is. 

The other big thing here is the extra juice that the Nittany Lions get at home under the lights at Beaver Stadium. They do a "white out" once a year in a night home game and Auburn is the team they picked for it. This is 100% a statement game for Penn State. 

Auburn has started 2-0, but I think it's a bit of fools gold. They beat one of the worst FBS teams in the country in Akron 60-10 and ran it up on lowly Alabama State 62-0 in their second game. Talk about a massive step up in competition. 

Sure Tigers' quarterback Bo Nix has put up some decent numbers in his first two starts. Most Power 5 QBs would against those two teams. I just can't help myself go back to the last couple of years and all the poor games that Nix has played on the road. I just don't trust him in this spot, especially in this kind of chaotic atmosphere. Give me Penn State -6! 

40* (CFB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (USC -8) 

I see this is as the perfect buy low spot on USC, as they are only a 8-point road favorite against Washington State. The Trojans fell flat on their face last week at home against Stanford, losing outright 28-42 as a 17-point favorite. There's just not going to be many rushing to back USC laying more than a TD on the road, especially after the Trojans just fired head coach Clay Helton. 

Some might see the firing of Helton as a sign that the team is in turmoil just two weeks into the season, but I see it as a big positive. At least for this game. 9 times out of 10 a team will respond with one of their best efforts the first game after their head coach was fired. They just feel a bit responsible and they also want to play well for the new guy. 

In this case it will be associate head coach Donte Williams, who joined last year as their CB and pass game coordinator on defense. One thing to note about Williams, is he will be the first black head coach in USC history. That's a big deal to a lot of these kids. He's also an LA native, so the fans will be behind this. It's not like they were in love with Helton. 

As for Washington State, I don't think they have what it gots to keep it close against a motivated USC team, even at home. We already saw the Cougars lose outright at home to Utah State as a 18-point favorite. 

Not to mention, the Trojans destroyed Washington State 38-13 last year and it really wasn't that close. USC had a 35-6 lead at the half and put forth little to no effort in the 2nd half. I just don't see the Cougars keeping this to single digits. Give me the Trojans -8! 

40* (CFB) - Sharp Money ATS STEAMROLLER (Miami -6.5)

I’m going to take the No. 24 ranked Miami Hurricanes as a 6.5-point home favorite against the Michigan State Spartans. I always like to look for good teams that aren’t getting a lot of love. This Miami team is far from being hyped up. People were disappointed that they couldn’t keep it more respectable against Alabama in the opener. They lost 44-13 as a 19.5-pt dog. The same can be said about last week’s gut-wrenching 25-23 win at home against Appalachian State, where they closed as a 7-point favorite. 

You really can’t read too much in the loss to Alabama. The Crimson Tide have been doing that in Week 1 to other Power 5 teams for years now under Nick Saban. Even though they had no chance, I’m sure Miami coaches and players talked themselves into believing they could win that game. It should be expected that they come out flat against a team that they know they are more talented then. I’m not saying the Mountaineers had no shot, I just don’t think they got Miami’s best shot in that game. I also think it says a lot about how the Hurricanes were able to dig themselves out of a hole in the 4th quarter to win that game. I think winning a game like that in the final minutes can spark a team. With all the negative talk they are hearing about their start to the year, I feel really good about the mindset of the Hurricanes on Saturday. 

I know Michigan State is off to a 2-0 start with an impressive 38-21 win at Northwestern as a 3-point dog and a 42-14 win and cover at home against Youngstown State as a 27-point favorite, I just wonder if we aren’t overreacting a little bit with their first two games. Let’s not forget they are coming off a 2-5 season in 2020, where they only averaged 18.0 ppg and gave up 35.1 ppg. To think they are anything close to the team that is averaging 40 ppg and giving up 17.5 ppg thru their first two is crazy. 

I went back and took another look at the Michigan State/Northwestern game in Week 1. They couldn’t have had a better start to that game. The very first play of the game they score a TD on a 75-yard run. Northwestern drives down and misses a field goal. Spartans turn around and score again to make it 14-0. It completely changed how the Wildcats had to play and allowed the Spartans to play to their strength offensively with the run game. One thing that is worth noting from that game is they gave up 400 yards of offense to Northwestern. The same Northwestern offense that could only muster 275 total yards at home against Indiana State. I’m just not so sure this Michigan State defense is as good as what people might think after their first two games. 

On the flip side of this, I think this is really bad matchup for the Spartans offense. Michigan State is a run-first team and struggle to throw it when the run isn’t there. Miami’s always got a strong front 7 and have held their own against the run against two really good running teams. They are only giving up 3.6 yards/carry, almost a full yard better per carry than what their opponents average. If they are able to slow down that run game, their pass rush should have a field day, which in turn is going to lead to turnovers and quick scores. I also think if the Hurricanes can get out to any kind of lead, they can run with and really turn this into a blowout. I can’t believe this line is under a touchdown. Give me the Hurricanes -6.5! 

50* (CFB) - UCF/Louisville MAX UNIT Top Play (UCF -6.5) 

I'm going to lay it with the Knights Friday night on the road against Louisville. UCF owes me one after that 0.5-point loss we had on them in Week 1 in their 5 point win over Boise State. A game that should have been a blowout. 

UCF threw a 100-yard pick six to start the game against the Broncos. It rattled this team and they fell behind 21-0. They got their feet back under them and would go on a 36-10 run the rest of the way to win 36-31. They outgained Boise State 573 to 283. Dillon Gabriel threw for 318 yards and 4 TD's and the Knights had 255 on the ground. 

Everyone is saying it's Cincinnati that's the best Group of 5 team out there, but I'm not so sure that's the case. UCF was down last year and only lost 33-36 to Cincinnati. 

The Knights are an elite offensive team and greatly improved on the defensive side of the ball. I just don't know that Louisville has the offensive fire-power to keep pace. 

I laid the 9-points on a neutral site with Ole Miss against Louisville in Week 1 and a lot of the reasons I liked the Rebels holds true for this matchup. 

I didn't think that the Cardinals defense was going to be able to slow down the Ole Miss pasing attack. They didn't. I also had big concerns with the Louisville offense. Yes they brought back starting quarterback Malik Cunningham, but they lost their top RB and top two WRs. They couldn't get anything going against an Ole Miss defense that while improved, gave up 38.3 ppg last year. 

Cunningham is more of a running threat than he is a passing threat. I think he's in trouble against this UCF front. The Knights have allowed a total of 44 rushing yards in two games, giving up a mere 1.1 yards/carry. Cardinals just aren't built to play in a shootout where they have to throw for 300+ yards. Give me UCF -6.5! 

40* (CFB) - Vegas Late Night STEAMROLLER (Utah -7) 

I'm going to go in more detail, but this 100% a fade of BYU. I think the Cougars are going to be extremely overvalued this year. Not only did they lose one of the best quarterbacks to ever go through their program in Zach Wilson, they only got 11 total starters back in a year where everyone has 15+. 

I took what I think is going to be a pretty bad Arizona team as a mere 12-point dog against BYU last week. BYU won the game 24-16 and were a bit lucky to do so. The Cougars were outgained 426 to 368 and had just 18 first downs to the Wildcats 27. 

I know it's a rivalry, but asking this team to lose by less than a touchdown is asking way too much. I think Utah will be lucky to even make this semi-respectable. The Utes are one of the best teams in the country. They basically return everybody and add in a top tier QB in Baylor transfer Charlie Brewer. After all the hype BYU got last year, they will have no problem running it up against their rival. Give me the Utes -7! 

50* (CFB) SEC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Kentucky -5) 

I will gladly lay less than a touchdown with Kentucky at home against Missouri. I think the Wildcats might just be the biggest sleeper in the SEC this year. Kentucky has really been relative in the SEC since 2016. They have had a top tier caliber defense in this league more times than not of late. The thing that has held them back is offense. Most notably their inability to throw the ball. 

I don't think that's going to be a problem anymore. Kentucky made it clear it was an area they wanted to be better at and they showed it by going after Liam Coen to be their new offensive coordinator. Coen has spent the last 3 years learning under one of the better offensive minds in the NFL in Sean McVay. 

Say what you want about it being ULM that they thrashed 45-10 with a 564-87 edge in total yards. The Warhawks stink, whatever. That's not what I'm focused on. In year's past when Kentucky won a game like this, they had like 400 yards rushing. They THREW FOR 419 YARDS and only rushed for 145 in that win over ULM. Josh Ali, their top returning wide out had 5 catches for 136 yards. Nebraska transfer Wan'Dale Robinson had 5 for 125. 

I'm going to roll the dice and say this Kentucky team that only averaged 21.8 ppg in 2020, will add at least a TD on to that and probably more. 

Missouri was a team I expected a little more out of in Week 1. They got a 34-24 win against Central Michigan, but were actually outgained on the game 468 to 475. Chippewas had 27 first downs to the Tigers 22. 

Not that I don't think Missouri's offense won't be decent this year, but think about the atmosphere that offense will be up against in a road night game for the SEC opener. I really think this could get ugly. Give me Kentucky -5! 

40* (CFB) Public Money ATS MASSACRE (Nebraska -13.5) 

I'll admit, after watching Nebraska lose the way they did to Illinois in Week Zero, I didn't see myself trusting the Cornhuskers enough to even consider taking them. I guess that's how everyone else is treating this team, because it's not asking much for them to win by 2 TDs at home against the Bulls. 

Now the other big part of this is I think Buffalo is a team that is very overvalued right now. The Bulls have been one of the better teams out of the MAC the past few years and were fun to watch (averaged 30+ ppg each of the last 3 years, 43.4 ppg last year). They made a lot of people money on those weekday MACtion games (29-14, 67% ATS L3 Years). 

So while others might see last week's 69-7 blowout win over Wagner as a sign that Buffalo is just as good as they have been, I think it's fools gold. 

What most will overlook is the fact that their head coach Lance Leipold up and left this team after the spring to be the new head coach at Kansas. I think he's a really good coach. He took a lot of his assistants with him and they replaced him with Mo Linguist, who was the DB coach for the Cowboys last year (not exactly something to brag about). Not a single coach is back from last year and they had 10 players hit the transfer portal. 

The offense no longer has an All-American RB, as Jaret Patterson is gone. They also lost their Top 2 and 3 of their top 4 receivers. They got just 10 starters back in total, which is an extremely low number in this time of the super senior. 

I think Nebraska is playing with a chip on their shoulder and will be highly motivated to put Buffalo away early with a monster game at Oklahoma on deck. Give me the Cornhuskers -13.5! 

50* (CFB) - Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH (Colorado +17) 

This is way too many points for Colorado to be catching in this game. All we have heard about the last 3 months leading up to the season, was how good this Texas A&M team was going to be. Some even thought they could dethrone Alabama in the SEC West. 

I don't think that changed after their 41-10 win against Kent State. That's not a game too many had up on the TV. All they see is the final score. They won't know until it's mentioned in the game that they only led Kent State 10-3 at the half. 

Yes, they dominated the 2nd half, but it bothers me that they needed a half to play up to their potential in a season opener. If in fact this team is feeling itself a little too much, that's not going to change to them because they only led 10-3 at the half. All they see is the fact they went from No. 6 up to No. 5 in the country. 

I think it makes Colorado a very dangerous team on Saturday. I certainly don't have any doubts about the Buffaloes treating this like it's the biggest game of the year. I did a quick look thru their past schedules and I want to say the last time they face a SEC team was Alabama in the 2007 Independence Bowl. Either way it's a big deal to them. 

I also think Colorado already came into this season with a bit of a chip on their shoulder. It's almost like their 3-1 record in the Pac-12 was overshadowed by their ugly loss to Texas in the Bowl. The fact that it was with a first year head coach in the middle of a pandemic is a big positive for me. I think Karl Dorrell may have been a great hire. 

Add in the game being played in an NFL Stadium (Denver Broncos). That's a really big deal to a school like Colorado. 

Lastly, you have to consider the altitude of Denver. It's just not easy playing in altitude when your body isn't trained for it. I could definitely see the Aggies having a hard time adjusting. I think it not only sets Colorado up for an easy cover, but it wouldn't shock me if they won outright. 

40* (CFB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Pitt -3) 

I'm going to take the Pittsburgh Panthers as a mere 3-point road favorite against the Tennessee Volunteers. I was shocked to see how much love the Volunteers were getting in this spot. The consensus over at Covers show 65% of the ATS bets on Tennessee. 

This is not a good Vols team and a 38-6 win at home over Bowling Green in the opener doesn't change that. A big thing to note is that while they won the game by 22 points, they only led 14-6 at the half. 

You also got to look at how bad that Bowling Green program has been in recent years. They didn't win a game last year. They went 0-5 in the MAC, where they were outgained by 150 yards/game and lost by an average score of 45-11. 

I just think it would have been a lot more lopsided for me to think anything differently about this Tennessee program in 2021. It's simply put, a full on rebuilding year under new head coach Josh Heupel. 

I was much more impressed with Pitt's 51-7 win over UMASS. I know UMASS isn't any better of a program than Bowling Green, but its the matter in which the Panthers took care of business. After watching this team, I question myself on why I gave out a lean last week on Pitt U7 for their win total. 

With that said, I think it's worth noting how important it is to not hold onto your beliefs you had on teams before the season. You got reevaluate every team each week of the season. Teams are going to be better or worse than you think. 

I was really impressed with Pitt's offense. They had great balance with 375 thru the air and 223 on the ground. Usually when a team blows out a team like they did, they end up just running for like 300+ yards. How much they threw says a lot about the confidence and aggressiveness the Panthers have in their offense with Pickett and all those weapons at the skill positions.

Tennessee is a prime example of what I was just talking about in offensive numbers in blowouts. Vols had 326 rushing yards, but only had 145 passing yards. Pitt is always a strong team against the run and figure to continue to be under head coach Pat Narduzzi. They held UMass to 42 yards on 27 attempts. I would be shocked if they don't load the box and force Tennessee to beat them in the air. 

It really just comes down to the fact that I think the Panthers offense is going to be able to move the chains and I really question the Vols ability to keep pace. Let's also not forget that under Heupel, Tenn is going to play at a really quick tempo. That works if your offense is elite. It's a real problem when you struggle to score because your defense can't hold up for 4 quarters. Give me the Panthers -3! 

40* (CFB) Vegas Oddsmakers HUGE LINE MISTAKE (Minnesota -19.5) 

This isn't a game I thought I would be on, as I thought the Gophers would be way overpriced after how well they played against Ohio State. I think the thing that has kept that from happening is the news that Minnesota did in fact lose star RB Mohamed Ibrahim to a season-ending injury. 

Really unfortunate for the Gophers, but I don't think his absence is a big deal against a team like Miami (OH). I was really impressed with the Minnesota offensive line in that game against Ohio State. It's not going to matter who is at RB with the holes they are going to create against this RedHawks front 7. Cincinnati ran for 247 yards and 3 scores against Miami (OH) last week, averaging 8.0 yards/carry. 

I also thought there was some positives to take from that Gophers defense and how well it held up for the early part of that game. Ohio State only had 17 points with less than 6 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. The talent, size and speed of the Buckeyes was simply too much to contain for 60 minutes. 

The RedHawks totaled just 278 total yards. Starting quarterback AJ Mayer was 9 of 28 for 109 yards. I just don't think Miami (OH) is built to play from way behind and more times than not when they get down and have to press the margin is only going to get bigger. Give me the Gophers -19.5! 

40* (CFB) - Friday Night ATS SLAUGHTER (UTEP +27) 

I just think there's too much value with UTEP at +27. Boise State is just one of those small conference teams that the public holds above all the rest. Most people won't hesitate to lay the big number against a UTEP program that gone 5-39 the past 4 years. 

That's even after a 31-36 loss to UCF in Week 1. It certainly doesn't look bad to only lose by 5 to a team that's expected to be as good as the Knights. The problem is, a lot went right for Boise State in that game. They couldn't have got off to a better start, going up 21-0, all of it starting with a 100-yard INT return for a TD. 

UCF outgained them 573 to 283 (-290). That's really really bad. That tells me right away the Broncos might not be as good as we thought. They are in the 1st year of a new head coach (they have had so many good hires at head coach..they are bound to hit a dud). Could also be without their star RB George Holani. 

On the flip side, there's reason to believe this year's UTEP team will be a lot more competitive than the previous versions. UTEP is 2-0. They beat New Mexico State 30-3 in Week Zero and defeated Bethune-Cookman 38-28. 

Beating a FCS team by only 10 when you are a 20.5-point favorite doesn't look great, but they have a 470-333 edge in total yards. You also got to think they were looking forward to this game. UTEP doesn't get a lot of prime time exposure, certainly not against a team with the prestige of Boise. 

Head coach Dana Dimel has been building this thing from the ground up at UTEP. He's a disciple of Bill Snyder (was OC for 9 years prior to coming here). It's now year 4, which means pretty much the entire roster have been recruited to play his style. 

They got 11 starters back on offense and 8 more on defense. It's by far the best team Dimel has had since he's been here. Their 3 wins last year were more than they had the previous 3 years combined and 3 of their 5 losses were by 10 or less, including a 4-point loss at La Tech and 2-point loss at North Texas. 

Can they win this game? Probably not. It will be interesting to see how Boise State responds. That was such a massive game against UCF. If they seriously wanted to play in a New Year's 6 bowl (I'm pretty sure they did), they needed to win that game. It also adds to the importance of next week's game at home against the Big 12's Oklahoma State. I just don't see this ending up in a blowout. Give me UTEP +27! 

50* (CFB) - Louisville/Ole Miss MAX UNIT Top Play (Ole Miss -9) 

I'm will gladly lay the -9 with Ole Miss in Monday's Week 1 finale against Louisville. It's a neutral site game (Atlanta) and the big news here is that the Rebels will have to play without head coach Lane Kiffin (Covid). 

No question not having Kiffin on the sideline knocks Ole Miss down a notch, but I really feel like the line has already been adjusted. I think this game should have been closer to Rebels -13.5 with Kiffin. 

The biggest thing with Kiffin is he also serves as the OC and calls the plays. Luckily for the Rebels they got a bright OC that can fill the void in Jeff Lebby and a experienced and talented QB in Matt Corral. Ole Miss rushed for 211 ypg last year and with a deeper and more talent RB group running behind one of the better offensive lines in the SEC, they don't figure to need to call great plays to exploit this Louisville defense. 

The Cardinals only gave up 26.6 ppg and 369 ypg in 2020, but that's a bit misleading as they actually gave up 31 or more points in 5 of their 11 games, 3 times giving up 40+. They figure to a much weaker unit this year, as they lost 5 of their top 7 tacklers. 

Not only do I think Louisville will have a hard time slowing down the Rebels' offense, I also got big concerns here with the Cardinals offense. Louisville gets back a talented dual threat QB in Malik Cunningham, but he loses 3 of his biggest playmakers from last year in RB Javian Hawkins, WR Tutu Atwell and WR Dez Fitzpatrick. They will be up against what I think is going to be an improved Ole Miss defense that returns 9 starters and will now be in the second year under DC D.J. Durkin. Give me the Rebels -9! 

50* (CFB) - Notre Dame/Florida St MAX UNIT Top Play (FSU +7) 

I will gladly take my chances with the Seminoles as a 7-point home dog against Notre Dame on Sunday. I think the number here has been inflated quite a bit with the Irish, coming off their playoff run last year. Not to mention there's a lack of respect out there with Florida State after a 3-6 campaign in 2020. 

What people have to remember with last year's Seminoles team, they were transitioning to a new head coach during a pandemic. I got all the confidence in Mike Norvell getting this ship back on track after Willie Taggart nearly sunk it. 

Typically it's not until year 3 that a new coach really sees the fruits of his labor, but Norvell sped up the process by going out and getting a bunch of transfers that can help him win now. The biggest being fromer UCF star quarterback McKenzie Milton. If he's anything like what he was before that leg injury, this offense is going to be a lot of fun to watch. 

He also sprinkled several transfers on defense, including two SEC guys in Georgia's Jermaine Johnson and South Carolina's Keir Thomas to the defensive line. This d-line group has been the talk of practice. If they can slow down ND's run game, they can slow down the entire offense. 

The Irish brought in a transfer QB in their own in Wisconsin's Jack Coan. I know Coan had decent numbers with the Badgers, but so much of that was because of how much defenses had to respect the run. He's not bad, but he's playing to lose you the game. He's not the guy that puts your offense on his back. I also think he could be on his back a lot, as the Irish lost 4 starters on the o-line, 3 of which were taken in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft. 

Defensively they had to replace defensive coordinator Clark Lea, who left for Vandy. Everyone is raving about the hire of Cincinnati's Marcus Freeman. I'm not saying Freeman won't be good, but I need to see it to believe it. Luke Fickell is the defensive genius that has made the Bearcats so good on that side. Freeman came over with Fickell in 2017, so he's got to show me he can do it without the brains behind the scheme. 

I just think this more evenly matched the number would suggest, especially with this being a night game at Doak Campbell. It's going to be electric in Tallahassee tonight. Give me Florida State +7! 

40* (CFB) - Late Night Situational ATS MASSACRE (Arizona +12.5) 

I'm willing to take a shot with Arizona as a 12.5-point dog to BYU on a neutral site. I just don't think the Cougars should be laying double-digits, but they are because they just went 11-1 last year and Arizona didn't win a game at 0-5. 

A lot has changed for both teams. None bigger than the quarterback position at BYU, where they have to replace a big time talent in Zach Wilson. Just look at all the hype around Wilson already in his rookie year with the Jets. I just think the Cougars are poised to take a major step back offensively. 

Defensively, in a year where everyone is bringing back 8-10 starters on both sides, they only get back 4, losing 7 of their top 10 tacklers. They are going backwards on this side as well. 

I know Arizona has a lot of questions, but they can't be any worse than they were last year. I think there's reason to be optimistic they will be better under new head coach Jedd Fisch, who has spent the last few years in the NFL. They also snagged Don Brown after he was fired at Michigan to be their defensive coordinator and signed Pete Carroll's son Brennan Carroll to be the OC. 

I think the Wildcats are going to come out extremely motivated and I give them a pretty good shot here at pulling off the upset. Give me Arizona +12.5! 

40* (CFB) - Vegas Oddsmaker STEAMROLLER (Georgia +3) 

I will take my chances with Georgia as a 3-point dog against Clemson in an absolute monster game to open the season. I was all over the Bulldogs last year once J.T. Daniels took over at quarterback. I think with him under center and the defense that they got, Georgia is in prime position to run the table and win the SEC. 

It's hard to say a lot of bad things with Clemson, but I just wonder if he's as good as people think. I know he had that great game against Notre Dame, but I think that had a lot to do with the Irish mentally not giving the Tigers passing attack as much respect with Trevor Lawrence out.

Expecting him to be as good as Lawrence is expecting a lot. Not to mention, Clemson lost an elite back in Travis Etienne and their top two receivers (Etienne was 3rd in receiving). I just think the Tigers are going to struggle offensive in this game, while I think Georgia will be able to move the ball. Give me the Bulldogs +3! 

40* (NCAAF) - No Doubt Sharp Money ATS BLOWOUT (Iowa -3)

I’m going to take the Iowa Hawkeyes as a 3-point home favorite against the Indiana Hoosiers. I highly recommend betting this now, as I could see this moving to Iowa -3.5 across the board.

I just think Indiana is a bit overrated coming into the 2021 season. The Hoosiers had a magical 2020 season that saw them get as high as #9 in the country and finish an outstanding 8-0 ATS. They went 6-1 in Big Ten play last year, but were actually outgained by 4 ypg in conference play. They had a 36-35 win over Penn St where they were outgained 488 to 211 and a 14-6 win against Wisconsin where they were outgained 342 to 217. 

One thing I don’t think is getting enough attention is the fact that Indiana’s starting QB, Michael Penix is coming off an ACL injury he suffered in November. I have major concerns with him being able to play at the level needed at least to start the year. Not to mention he’s playing behind one of the least talented offensive lines in the Big Ten. 

Another factor for me is how Indiana’s offense matches up with Iowa’s defense. The Hoosiers were 12th out of 14 Big Ten teams in rushing and most of their big plays came via the passing game. I definitely see them being one-dimensional against a stingy Iowa defense that has been one of the better defenses in the country at stopping the run the last few years. Not to mention, passing on this Hawkeyes defense will be no easy task, as Iowa has one of the best secondaries not in just the Big Ten but the entire nation. 

Defensively Indiana is going to be solid, but I think they could have a hard time stopping what figures to be a balanced offensive attack. Iowa has one of the best backs in the Big Ten in sophomore Tyler Goodson to go along with an underrated offensive line. The only real question with the Iowa offense is sophomore QB Spencer Petras, but all signs so far in spring and fall practices is that he’s a much improved player. 

Let’s also not forget Iowa is a team that finished the year on a 6-game winning streak after suffering heartbreaking losses to Purdue and Northwestern by a combined 4 -points. They were only outgained in one game all season and that was by a mere 19-yards. 

Lastly, you got to factor in where the game is being played. Iowa has one of the better home field atmospheres in college football at Kinnick Stadium. Indiana did win 3 of 4 on the road last year with no fans, but historically have not been good, as they are just 18-33 away from home over the last 10 seasons. Give me the Hawkeyes -3!

50* (CFB) - Top Play (West Virginia -3) 

I love West Virginia laying a mere 3-points on the road against the Terps. I think the Mountaineers are a legit dark horse contender in the Big 12 this year. The Mountaineers went just 4-4 in conference play last year, but outgained opponents by an average of 89 ypg. 

West Virginia has a very young and talented offensive line, a very underrated signal caller in junior Jarret Doege, get back a 1,000 yard rusher and their top two wide outs. This will be as good a Mountaineers offense as we have seen under 3rd year head coach Neal Brown. 

They also have an outstanding defense that returns 8 starters from a unit that only gave up 20l.5 ppg and 291 ypg. 

Maryland is a Big Ten bottom feeder with a lot of question marks. I think people give the name a little too much respect when it comes to Tua's younger brother Taulia Tagovailoa. He was okay in his 4 starts last year, but if he was anything like his brother Alabama wouldn't have let him leave town. I also have a lot of questions with the o-line and lack of running game. 

Defensively they don't figure to be all that great. They are more experienced on the d-line, but lack talent. Same thing at linebacker and in the secondary. They gave up 32.0 ppg and 430 ypg last year and their 5 games were against Northwestern, Minnesota, Penn State, Indiana and Rutgers. I think they are way overmatched in this game. Give me the Mountaineers -3! 

40* (CFB) - Early Bird ATS SLAUGHTER (Penn St +5.5)

I think we are getting some really good value here with Penn State at +5.5. Nothing against Wisconsin, I just think the Nittany Lions are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country. 

They weren't as bad as their record would show last year. They had two losses to Indiana and Nebraska where they outgained them by more than 200 yards. They also finished with a -8 turnover margin, which was by far their worst since 2014. 

I think the offense is going to be greatly improved with Noah Cain back at running back and a veteran signal caller in junior Sean Clifford. Defensively they not only are one of the top units in the Big Ten, but the entire country. 

Wisconsin is getting a lot of hype behind redshirt freshman quarterback Graham Mertz, but he was really up and down last year. Badgers went 3 straight games against Northwestern, Indiana and Iowa where they didn't score in double-figures. Their defense is good and should dominate a lot of the teams in this conference, but I think they will struggle with the skill players of Penn State. 

I would have the Nittany Lions -1 on a neutral, which means this line should be closer to Wisconsin -2.5 or -3. Give me Penn State +5.5! 

40* (CFB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (UCF -5.5)

I got no problem laying -5.5 at home with UCF as they host Boise State Thursday in a clash of two of the better Non-Power 5 programs. I just think the Broncos name recognition has them getting a little more respect than they probably should in this matchup. 

I'm not saying Boise State isn't one of the top teams in the Mountain West. I just think UCF is on a different level. I loved UCF's hire of Gus Malzahn. He struggled to make Auburn a consistent contender, but that's every team's problem in the SEC West outside of Alabama. The guy went 68-35 in 8 seasons with the Tigers (3 wins over Alabama). 

He couldn't step into a better situation. UCF was down last year, but still managed to go 6-4 and weren't far off from a perfect regular-season. They went 6-3 with a 8-pt loss to Tulsa, 1-pt loss to Memphis and 3-point loss to Cincinnati. 

They got one of the best quarterbacks in the entire country in Dillon Gabriel and a Top 15 caliber offensive line. It's just offensive juggernaut after offensive juggernaut at UCF. The Knights have averaged over 40 ppg and more than 500 ypg each of the last 4 seasons. 

Boise State will also be in the first year of a new head coach, as they had to replace Bryan Harsin after he left for none other than Auburn. The new guy is Andy Avalos. He spent the last 2 years as the DC at Oregon. He's also a hometown guy having played here and served as an assistant coach. 

Unlike Malzahn, Avalos has no previous head coaching experience to fall back on. I know Boise had 9 starters back on an offense that put up 33.9 ppg, but a lot of that came against bad teams. Broncos had 40 or more in 4 games. One of those was a 52-21 win over Colorado State where they only had 291 total yards. They scored 20 or fewer 3 times. The defense gave up 30 or more in 4 of their last 6. Give me UCF -5.5! 

50* (CFB) - Saturday "Week Zero" PLAY OF THE YEAR (UTEP -9) 

I got no problem laying single digits with UTEP as they open the season on the road against New Mexico State. I really think the Miners are primed for a breakout season. While they went 3-5 last year, no one is expecting much from UTEP. The Miners haven't had a winning season since 2014 and were just 2-34 in the 3 years prior to going 3-5. 

Thing is, they are now in year 5 under head coach Dana Dimel. Given what he had to work with when he got here, it was going to take some time to turn this thing around. Big thing to note with last year is that they had a 17-21 loss to La Tech, 28-38 loss to Charlotte and a 43-45 loss to North Texas. A few breaks go their way and they could have easily flipped their record to 5-3. Keep in mind their only two home games last year were against FCS foes, so they had to play their 5 toughest games all on the road. 

This is by far the best team that Dimel has had at his disposal. They got all 11 starters back on offense and they are really high on sophomore quarterback Gavin Hardison. It's by far the best UTEP has been on both the offensive and defensive lines. This team is going to be a really tough out in C-USA play. 

As for New Mexico State, I just don't think they are any good. We are talking about a team that has won 12 games total against other FBS teams in the last 10 years. They are in year 9 under head coach Doug Martin, so there's not much reason to expect things to just magically get better. There's major questions at quarterback and what they will get out of it. 

Aggies did play 2 spring games against Tarleton State (lost 17-43 as 7-pt favorite) and Dixie State (won 36-29 as a 1-pt favorite), giving up close to 500 yards in both games. They also have just 3 returning starters, when every other team in the country seems to have 15+ guys back. I don't think this will be close. Give me UTEP -9! 

50* OHIO ST/ALABAMA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ohio State +9) 

I cashed in a huge profit with Ohio State +7.5 in their 49-28 win over Clemson in the Semifinals and I will unload on the Buckeyes once again as an even bigger dog against Alabama. I just think there's some big SEC bias going with this number. I just don't think the SEC was as strong from top to bottom this year as it has been. Florida was the second best team in the league and they only beat the Gators 52-46 in the SEC title game. Ohio State is a much better defensive team than the Gators and every bit as potent on the offensive side of the ball. 

I not only think the Buckeyes cover the number, but I think they got an excellent shot here of winning the game outright. It doesn't happen often, but when Ohio State is a dog you almost have to back them blindly. The Buckeyes are 15-3 ATS last 18 games they were listed as the underdog and have won outright 8 of the last 9 times they were a dog. Adding to this, Alabama is just 12-20 ATS last 32 times they have been listed as a single-digit favorite. Give me the Buckeyes +9! 

40* KENTUCKY/NC STATE GATOR BOWL VEGAS INSIDER (Kentucky -2) 

I think a lot of people are going to look at this matchup and wonder why a 4-6 Kentucky team is favored over a NC State team that finished 8-3 and are ranked No. 23 in the country. 

I’m not going to sit here and say Kentucky is a great team or anything like that, but I don’t think there’s any debate that the Wildcats played the much tougher schedule. NC State’s only win over a Power 5 team that finished the year with a winning record was a 30-29 victory at Pitt, who finished up at 6-5. A game they had no business winning, as they were outgained 503 to 398. 

In their 3 losses they  lost by 21 to Virginia Tech, by 27 to North Carolina and by 3 to Miami. While you might be thinking a 3-point loss to the Hurricanes is something to take note of, they were outgained in that game 620 to 410. 

Kentucky’s 6 losses all came against SEC teams. 4 of those were road games against Alabama, Florida, Auburn and Missouri, who all finished .500 or better in league play. They also lost at home to Georgia. The only bad loss if you want to call it that, is a 1-point loss at home to Ole Miss. I think NC State would have been lucky to win 2 games against the Wildcats schedule. 

I’m sure there’s concern with Kentucky’s offense, which only averaged 21.7 ppg and 312 ypg, but again you have to factor in the teams they played. When they played some of the weaker teams they were a lot more potent offensively. They scored 41 against Ole Miss, 34 against Tennessee, 38 against Vandy and 41 against South Carolina. I’m confident the Wildcats will be able to move the ball here against a NC State defense that gave up 40+ points in 4 games. 

The other thing I love with the Wildcats is that they got some NFL guys on this team that could have easily passed on this game, but instead the players have made it clear that they are 10% invested in winning this bowl game. 

Finding a way to get his team fired up for their bowl game is nothing new for Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops. The Wildcats beat Virginia Tech 37-30 last year as a 2-point dog. In 2018 they beat No. 13 Penn State 27-24 as a 6-point dog and in 2017 they lost 23-24 to No. 20 Northwestern as a 7-point dog. I think we are getting a gift here with Kentucky laying less than a field goal in this one. Give me the Wildcats -2!

50* OHIO ST/CLEMSON SUGAR BOWL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ohio State +7.5) 

I love the value here with Ohio State as a 7.5-point dog against Clemson. I believe we are seeing a big overreaction with this line because of how the Buckeyes struggled with Northwestern in the Big 10 title game, while the Tigers cruised to an easy win over Notre Dame. At least that's the story the media is portraying. I think Northwestern is a better opponent than people realize and Notre Dame is one of the biggest frauds out there. 

I really think this line should be 3 maybe 3.5 in favor of Clemson. I would not be surprised at all if Ohio State won this game. These two played last year in the playoffs and the line for that game was Clemson -2.5. The Tigers won by a final score of 29-23, despite the Buckeyes outgaining them by almost 100 yards. 

It doesn't happen often, but Ohio State has been money as a dog, going 20-7 ATS in their last 27 as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points and have won these games on average by a final score of 28.2 to 23.9. Give me the Buckeyes +7.5! 

40* CINCINNATI/GEORGIA PEACH BOWL SHARP STAKE (Georgia -6.5) 

I think we are getting a steal here with Georgia laying less than a touchdown against Cincinnati in the Peach Bowl. The Bearcats are 9-0 and blew a bunch of teams out early in the year, but you can't ignore who they played, especially in comparison to the Bulldogs. We also see Cincinnati barely hold on to beat UCF (won 36-33) in their regular-season finale, as well as Tulsa (won 27-24) in the AAC title game. 

The same Tulsa team that just lost to a Mississippi State team that went 3-7 in SEC play. Some might argue that Georgia won't be motivated to play, but I'm just not buying it. If that was the case they would have had more guys opt out than they did. 

This is a team that really elevated their play once JT Daniels took over at quarterback. I think it gave this team a big spark and they treating the end of this year as the first step to what they want to accomplish in 2021. Give me the Bulldogs -6.5! 

50* FLORIDA/OKLAHOMA COTTON BOWL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Oklahoma -2.5) 

I was quick to jump on Oklahoma at -2.5 once the news came out that Florida was going to be down their top 4 receiving threats in Kadarius Toney, Trevon Grimes, Jacob Copeland and Kyle Pitts. Those 4 guys accounted for 174 of the 296 receptions the team accounted for this season. Not to mention 34 of the 45 receiving scores. 

I also want to point out that I would have been on the Sooners here even if these guys were playing. I really like what I saw out of Oklahoma down the stretch. Freshman quarterback Spencer Rattler made huge strides over the course of the season, as did the Sooners defense. 

You have to factor in the emotional state for this Florida team. This is a Gators team that going into their Dec. 12th game against LSU was in the mix for a playoff spot. They found a way to get up for that game against Alabama in the SEC title game, but I just don't see them being interested at all in this game against Oklahoma. Give me the Sooners -2.5 and for those that missed out on the number, I would still take Oklahoma at -7, but it would be a 40* instead of a 50* bet. 

40* OK ST/MIAMI CHEEZ-IT BOWL VEGAS INSIDER (Oklahoma State -2)

I’m going to take the No. 21 ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2) against the No. 18 ranked Miami Hurricanes in Tuesday’s Cheez-It Bowl held at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL.  

After watching the effort that Miami put forth in their 62-26 loss to North Carolina in their regular-season finale, I just have a really hard time seeing this team showing up for this game against the Cowboys. All they are going to be thinking about is getting this season over with and figuring out their New Year plans for Thursday. 

Not showing up for bowl games is kind of thing for this program. Last year Miami was shutout 14-0 as a 7-point favorite against Louisiana Tech. They year before they lost 35-3 as a 2-point favorite to Wisconsin. 

In that finale against the Tar Heels they let UNC rack up 778 total yards with 554 of those yards coming on the ground. Almost all of those coming from two players, as the Tar Heels Michael Carter had 308 rushing yards and Javonte Williams wasn’t far behind with 236. 

That defense that was a complete no show has since lost two of their best defensive players in defensive ends Quincy Roche and Jean Phillips. 

I expect more of the same here with Oklahoma State running wild on this Miami defense. I know the Cowboys have had their star back Chuba Hubbard leave the team to prep for the NFL, but honestly he wasn’t producing up to expectations anyway. Junior Dezmon Jackson rushed for 235 yards against Texas Tech and 118 against TCU before he gave way to freshman Dominic Richardson in the finale and he responded with 169 yards and 3 scores on 23 carries against Baylor. 

I know the Oklahoma State defense had some bad showings, but for the most part they were solid. In fact, they held all but 3 of their opponents under 30 points this season. They only gave up 22.4 ppg, holding their opponents on average a TD under their scoring average. 

Lastly, Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy has a history of getting his team to show in bowl games, Oklahoma State has covered in 4 straight and 5 of their last 6 bowl games. That includes 3 outright wins as a dog. Give me the Cowboys -2! 

50* WKU/GEORGIA ST LENDINGTREE BOWL MASSACRE (Georgia St -3.5) 

I really like Georgia State as a small favorite in the LendingTree Bowl against Western Kentucky. The Sun Belt is way better than they get credit for and have really shown out so far in bowl play. C-USA on the other hand is way down this year. C-USA has already had 4 teams play in bowls and all 4 lost. Of those 4 teams, 3 failed to score more than 17 points. Two of those matchups came against Sun Belt teams with App St beating North Texas 56-28 and Georgia Southern beating La Tech 38-3. 

Georgia State doesn't get mentioned with the top dogs in the Sun Belt, but they probably should. Yes, they got annihilated by Coastal Carolina 51-0, but they took Lafayette to OT, before losing and had a lead late in the 4th quarter on the road against App State before losing. 

Western Kentucky went 5-6, but didn't have a FBS win against a team with a winning record as they beat Middle Tenn (3-6), Southern Miss (3-7), FIU (0-5) and Charlotte (2-4). 

Hilltoppers have one of they worst offenses in the country and will be playing without their top wide out. Panthers have an explosive offense that put up 32.7 ppg and can beat you with both the run and the pass. I just feel like this number should be closer to a touchdown not a field goal. Give me Georgia State -3.5! 

40* MARSHALL/BUFFALO CAMELLIA BOWL MASSACRE (Buffalo -4) 

This is a matchup of two teams that failed to deliver in their conference title game. Buffalo lost 28-38 to Ball State as a 12-point favorite, while Marshall fell 13-22 at home to UAB as a 4.5-point favorite. For me this was an easy play on the Bulls. 

I thought the 5 interception game against Rice for Marshall quarterback Grant Wells was something he would be able to move past from, but clearly that wasn't the case. Wells somehow looked even worse against UAB. He didn't complete a single pass in the 1st half of that game. With the Thundering Herd's top RB, Brendon Knox, opting out, I just wonder how this Marshall offense will score. 

The Herd do have a solid defense, but you could start to see the offenses inability to move the ball wear on them in that game against UAB. They gave up 216 rushing yards in that contest. If they aren't better against the run here they could be in trouble. Buffalo has a dynamic back in Jaret Patterson. It certainly won't help that Marshall's top linebacker Tavante Beckett decided not to play. He's really the heart and soul on that side of the ball. Give me Buffalo -4! 

40* GA SOUTHERN/LA TECH NEW ORLEANS BOWL VEGAS INSIDER (Georgia Southern -6) 

I will lay the 6-points with Georgia Southern in the New Orleans Bowl. This is quite the matchup, as you have both teams dealing with some serious quarterback problems. Both teams will be without their starters and the Eagles are also down their top backup. The fact that Georgia Southern is down to their 3rd stringer might seem like a big deal, but he's got some playing time and simply the quarterback position isn't as big a deal for them as it is most teams. 

The Eagles are a run-first team. They average 48 rush attempts to just 14 pass attempts per game. They also run it very well, averaging 262 yards and 5.4 yards/carry. That run game should be in full force against a Louisiana Tech defense that has allowed 300+ rushing yards twice in their final 3 games. 

As for the Bulldogs, they got no run game to speak of, as they come in averaging a mere 98 yards/game and 2.8 yards/carry on the ground. This is also a very strong Georgia Southern defense that was great against the run and can get after the QB. It's why I think them not having their starting QB is such a big deal. Give me the Eagles -6! 

40* UCF/BYU BOCA RATON BOWL STEAMROLLER (UCF +6.5) 

I actually like UCF to win this game, so backing the Knights at +6.5 was a no-brainer for me. I know BYU had this great season and come in ranked No. 16 in the country, but I'm sorry the Boca Raton Bowl is the last place this team wants to be.

The Cougars had their eyes set on a New Year's Six Bowl, but a loss to Coastal Carolina in their second to last game ended those dreams. They did bounce back with a 28-14 win over San Diego State, but were lucky to win that game, as the Aztecs blew several scoring opportunities and outgained BYU 399-384. 

UCF didn't have the season they were expecting, but it almost feels like people are sleeping on the Knights 6-3 record. UCF's 3 losses came to Tulsa by 8-points, Memphis by 1 and Cincinnati by 3. Everyone wants to talk about how good BYU's offense is, UCF averaged more points (44.3 ppg) and yards (586 ypg) and did so playing a much tougher schedule. 

While BYU could have a hard time finding motivation for this game, I think UCF will be extremely motivated to remind everyone just how good they are against a Top 20 opponent. Give me the Knights +6.5! 

50* TULSA/CINCINNATI NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Tulsa +14.5)

I absolutely love the value here with the Golden Hurricane as a 14.5-point dog against the Bearcats. No disrespect to Cincinnati and what they have been able to do this season, but I think the number here is extremely inflated. Not only is Tulsa good enough to cover, they can win this game outright. 

Everyone wants to talk about how good the Bearcats defense is and it's really good, but Tulsa isn't far behind. Cincinnati gives up 308 yards/game and 4.2 yards/play. The Golden Hurricane only allowed 328 yards/game and 4.5 yards/play. 

This is by far the best defense that Cincinnati's offense has faced this year, as they have played about as easy a schedule in terms of defenses faced as you can. I really think this is going to be a defensive battle and the fewer points scored the more valuable the 14.5 we are getting becomes. Give me the Golden Hurricane +14.5! 

50* CLEMSON/NOTRE DAME NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Notre Dame +10.5) 

I was shocked to see Notre Dame getting double-digits in this game. I know the Irish caught a huge break in the first meeting with Clemson, as the Tigers didn't have the services of Trevor Lawrence. Stil, I'm not buying Lawrence is going to make an 18-point difference. 

Last I checked Lawrence doesn't play defense and Notre Dame put up 518 yards and 47 points on the Tigers stop unit in the first meeting. I also don't know how much more Lawrence can do offensively than his backup Uiagalelei gave them, as he threw for 439 yards and 2 scores. 

I also think you have to note the edge the Irish have on both the offensive and defensively line. Clemson only managed to rush for 34 yards on 33 attempts in that first meeting, where Notre Dame had 208 yards on 40 attempts. I wouldn't be shocked if the Tigers found a way to win the rematch, I just don't think it will be by double-digits. With that said I definitely think Notre Dame can win this game. Give me the Irish +10.5! 

40* OLE MISS/LSU NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Ole Miss -2) 

I’m going to take the Ole Miss Rebels -2 on the road against the LSU Tigers. I got a feeling a lot of people are going to look at this line and wonder why the heck is LSU a home dog to Ole Miss after they just went on the road and upset No. 6 Florida last week. If you have been around this industry long enough, you know when something looks off there’s usually a good reason behind it. 

I definitely think that’s the case here. I just think the gas tank is going to be on empty for LSU on Saturday. After issuing a self-imposed bowl ban, it certainly felt like the Tigers treated last week’s game against Florida as their bowl game. It was also much more than that, as this team was sick and tired off all the negative media they were getting because of how they weren’t living up to the lofty expectations they set winning the National Championship last year. 

Regardless of the bowl ban and all that, I still would have looked to fade LSU in this spot. It’s going to be near impossible for the Tigers to bring that same energy and intensity they took the field with last week into this game. It’s just human nature to have a letdown after a game like that. Keep in mind that was the Tigers third straight week facing a Top 10 opponent, as they played No. 1 Alabama the week before and No. 5 Texas A&M the week before that. 

On the flip side of this, you have a hungry and motivated Ole Miss team that hasn’t played in 3 weeks, itching to get back on the field and get their crack at the defending champs. Not to mention a win here would go a long way in the Rebels securing a bowl bid. I think it’s a big deal for Lane Kiffin and his staff. Everyone missed out on a lot of practice time in the spring/summer because of Covid. It’s big for a first year coach to get those extra practices before a bowl game. 

This is also a great matchup for the Rebels high-powered offense. Ole Miss has one of the best passing attacks in the country and LSU has one of the worst secondaries in the country. Even in their big win over Florida they let Kyle Trask throw for 474 yards and that was with the Gators playing without the services of star tight end Kyle Pitts. I just think with the Tigers not all that interested in playing this game, this really has the potential to get out of hand. Give me the Rebels -2! 

*It's unfortunate that Ole Miss had two of their top receivers opt out for this game on Thursday, but I still like the Rebels in this matchup. I still think Ole MIss has the talent at the skill positions to make it work and I trust in Kiffin to get them in a position to succeed. More than anything I don't like the spot for LSU. 

40* OREGON/USC LATE NIGHT PAC-12 CHAMPIONSHIP (Oregon +3.5) 

I'm going to take the 3.5-points here with Oregon in the Pac-12 title game. The betting public is all over USC in this one, as the Trojans come in 5-0 and ranked No. 13 in the country. The Ducks are just 3-2 and only playing in this game because Washington, who won the North but doesn't have enough healthy guys to play. 

I just don't think USC is as good as advertised. They could easily be 2-3 instead of 5-0, as they snuck by Arizona State 28-27, barely knocked off a bad Arizona team 34-20 and squeaked by UCLA 43-38. They trailed by the Sun Devils and Bruins by double-digits in the 2nd half needed a TD with 25 seconds to play to beat Arizona. 

Oregon has the talent in the secondary to slow down USC's high-powered passing attack and should have no problem moving the ball against this soft Trojans defense. I'll take the field goal and the hook, but I'm confident the Ducks win this game outright. Give me Oregon +3.5! 

50* UAB/MARSHALL C-USA CHAMP *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Marshall -4.5) 

I love the value here with the Thundering Herd as a mere 4.5-point favorite against the Blazers. I really feel like Marshall has been the best team in C-USA this year and would have been closer to a touchdown favorite if not for a 20-0 home loss to Rice in their last game.

That was just an all-around bad showing by the Herd, who really had nothing to play for with a spot in the title game all but locked up. It was all them beating themselves, as they held Rice to just 213 total yards. The offense just kept getting in their own way with 5 turnovers, which is a bit crazy given they had a total of 6 turnovers in their first 7 games. 

UAB keeps finding a way into the C-USA title game, largely cause of the West Division being so bad. The Blazers 3 conference wins were against UTSA, Rice and Western Kentucky and only one of those was a blowout. It reminds me a lot of last year when this team had no business being in the title game and wound up losing 49-6 to FAU. Give me the Thundering Herd -4.5! 

40* SAN DIEGO ST/BYU NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (San Diego St +16.5)

I’m going to take the San Diego State Aztecs +16.5 on the road against the No. 18 ranked BYU Cougars. If you look at the statistics and compare the talent on the field, it won’t be hard to convince yourself that BYU can cover this spread. 

For me it’s not about the talent or the numbers, it’s 100% a play on the situation that BYU finds themselves in. First off, props for the Cougars taking that game last week against Coastal Carolina, but that loss completely ruined everything this team was playing for. 

BYU was thinking if they win that game they are going to be in a prime position to finish 11-0 and while it probably wouldn’t be good enough to make the playoffs, it would have ensured them at worst a New Year’s bowl, where they would be matched up against a top power 5 team and could prove to everyone they deserved more love in the rankings. 

There’s no more playoff talk, there’s no undefeated record at stake and they aren’t going to be in a New Year’s 6 bowl. I think it’s asking a lot from this BYU team to show up Saturday and lay it all on the line against the Aztecs. 

On the flip side of this, San Diego State is going to be excited about the opportunity to end their season with a win against a Top 20 team. It will be the first time this season the Aztecs will go into a game against a ranked opponent. 

I know the San Diego State offense leaves a lot to be desired, but defense is where a lack of motivation tends to really show. Defensively the Aztecs are stout as always and we just saw BYU’s potent offense struggle against a good Coastal Carolina defense. Really the only decent defense the Cougars have faced all year. 

Not to mention last year, BYU managed just 3 points in a double-digit loss to San Diego State. I love the Aztecs to cover the 16.5 and I give them more than a fighters chance to win this game outright. Give me San Diego State +16.5!

40* AUBURN/MISS ST NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Mississippi St +6.5)

I will gladly take my chances with Mississippi State as a near touchdown dog at home against Auburn. The Bulldogs have really shown some positive signs in their last 3 games. They beat Vandy and then lost by just 7 on the road to both Georgia and Ole Miss, covering in both games as big dogs. 

An offense that could barely do anything early on after that LSU game has come to life behind a bunch of talented freshmen. Most notably freshman quarterback Will Rogers. He completed 41 of 52 for 336 yards against Georgia and then went 45 of 61 for 440 yards against rival Ole Miss. 

Another thing to note here is Mississippi State has had two weeks to prepare for this game and because all these young guys are playing they should be motivated here. The same can't be said for Auburn. The Tigers are poised for a massive letdown after playing two Top 5 teams the last two weeks in Alabama and Texas A&M. With how much Bo Nix struggles on the road, I really give Mississippi State a good shot at winning this game. Give me the Bulldogs +6.5! 

40* DUKE/FLORIDA ST NCAAF ATS STEAMROLLER (Florida State -4.5) 

I just can't pass up on Florida State at this price. I know it's been another down year for the Seminoles and they will be playing for the first time since Nov. 14, but how do you not take a shot on them with what we have seen out of this Duke team down the stretch. 

To say the Blue Devils defense has been bad in their last 3 games would be an understatement. Duke gave up 56 points and over 500 yards to North Carolina. They then allowed 56 points and over 500 yards to a Georgia Tech that like FSU hadn't played in weeks. Last week they not only gave up 48 points and 500 yards to Miami, they also didn't score. All 3 games their opponent rushed for a minimum of 220 yards with both UNC and Georgia Tech eclipsing 335 yards. 

That's worth nothing. The one thing this Florida State offense can do well and really needs to do well to have success is run the football. They definitely should be able to do run here with dual threat quarterback Jordan Travis back in the mix. 

I know Duke might be able to move the ball here against FSU, but that's no guarantee. I certainly don't think they score enough to make up for what their defense is going to allow. Give me Florida State -4.5! 

50* WAKE FOREST/LOUISVILLE *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Wake Forest +1.5) 

I really like Wake Forest in Saturday's game at Louisville. I think we are getting a great price on the Demon Deacons because it's been almost a month since we last saw them play. Wake Forest last played at North Carolina on Nov. 14. A game they nearly won outright as a double-digit dog falling 53-59. 

The only other losses for the Demon Deacons came in their first two games when they lost to Clemson 37-13 and at NC State 42-45. This team is a couple plays away from being 6-1. 

Wake Forest can move the football and put up points. They come into this game averaging 39.3 ppg a full 8 points over what their opponents have given up on average (31.3). That offense will be up against a Louisville defense that has allowed 30+ points in 3 of their last 4 games. The only exception being a game against an awful Syracuse offense. 

While Wake Forest did allow a whopping 59 to UNC, they had gone 4 straight games prior to that matchup allowing 23 or less. Louisville's had one of their better wide outs opt out in November and just this week saw another opt out in Chatarius Atwell. 

Another huge concern I have with the Cardinals is there was a lot of players/fans that weren't happy with the fact that head coach Scott Satterfield talking to South Carolina about their open job, as he's only in year two with Louisville. I just don't see the Cardinals being motivated to play here. Give me Wake Forest +1.5! 

40* PITT/GA TECH NCAAF ATS STEAMROLLER (Georgia Tech +7) 

I'll take my chances here with Georgia Tech catching a TD at home against Pittsburgh. This will be senior night for the Yellow Jackets, as it's their last home game. Definitely will have Georgia Tech motivated to play, as will the fact that it's a prime time game at home. 

I also feel like we are getting value with the Yellow Jackets because of last week's 13-23 loss at NC State. That was a very misleading final score, as Georgia Tech repeatedly shot themselves in the foot. They actually outgained Virginia 412-397. 

Pitt is a quality team and will have an advantage in rest, but in the time since their last game against Clemson, they have had one of their best players opt out to prepare for the draft in likely 1st round pick Rashad Weaver. I just think Pitt is getting too much respect here. Panthers are just 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road this season, where their so-called great defense is giving up 32.8 ppg and just under 400 yards/game. Give me the Yellow Jackets +7! 

50* COLORADO/ARIZONA PAC-12 PLAY OF THE MONTH (Colorado -7) 

I don't know if it's because the Pac-12 started so late, but I'm not so sure people are taking notice to what Colorado is doing in the first year under head coach Karl Dorrell. The Buffaloes are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS and have been winning with both their offense and their defense. 

They do have a couple misleading scores. They beat UCLA 48-42, but had a 35-7 lead in that game. They also narrowly beat Stanford 35-32, despite leading in that game 35-16 with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th. 

I just don't think taking the foot off the gas will be an issue here against a struggling Arizona team that has started out 0-3. Wildcats are playing almost no defense. They are allowing 35.0 ppg, 460 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play. They have allowed 229 rush yards/game (5.2 yards/carry) and opposing QB's have completed 65% of their passes against them. Give me Colorado -7! 

40* TULSA/NAVY NCAAF VEGAS CASH COW (Tulsa -12) 

I think when some look at this game for Tulsa they see a big lookahead with Cincinnati, but I don't think that game is on their minds right now. The Golden Hurricane need to win this game against Navy to lock up a spot in the ACC title game. They don't want to have to go into next week's game needing to beat Cincinnati to play them again. 

I think if anyone is going to look past this game, it would be Navy. The Midshipmen have Army on deck and there's no game that means more to them than that one. With that said, even if Navy shows up to play I like Tulsa. 

That's because the Golden Hurricane are going to be ready for that option attack. They have had plenty of time to get ready having not played since Nov. 19 and their last game was against Tulane, who has a lot of option scheme to their offense. I'm pretty confident Tulsa will be the one establishing the ground game in this one, as they face a Navy defense that gives up a ridiculous 5.6 yards/carry (223 ypg). Give me Tulsa -12!