50* NCAAF PRE XMAS BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR (SMU -3) 

I get that this is technically a home game for FAU, but I just don’t think that’s as big of an advantage as people make it out to be. Not to mention the Owls don’t have the biggest following to start with. I also don’t think there’s near as much hype around this team now that Lane Kiffin has left the program to be the new head coach at Ole Miss.  

Not only do I think Kiffin leaving is a big psychological blow to the Owls, but I think his departure really hurts them from an X and O standpoint. Kiffin is really good at game planning for opponents and he also was the guy calling the plays. I really think the FAU offense is going to be out of sync in this game and that’s a big time problem, because their only hope of beating SMU is to outscore them.  

Let’s not also look over the fact that FAU really didn’t beat anyone this season of note. Their best wins are against the likes of WKU, Southern Miss and UAB. In their two big step-up games in non-conference they got annihilated at Ohio State and lost 48-14 at home to UCF.  

As for the Mustangs, they went 10-2 with their only two losses coming by 6-points at Memphis and by 7-points at Navy. Two games they could have easily won, as they outgained Memphis and led Navy 21-10 at the half. I mentioned how FAU got rolled by a team out of the American in UCF, SMU destroyed North Texas out of C-USA 49-27.  

I really think SMU is going to put up 40+ in this game. A mark they hit 8 different times during the regular season. I just don’t think the Owls can come anywhere close to that without Kiffin’s guidance. Give me the Mustangs -3!

50* ARMY/NAVY SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Army +10.5) 

I'll take my chances with Army as a double-digit dog. I just think there’s a ton of value here with the Black Knights in this one.

Forget about how Army didn’t meet expectations this year. A win here and nobody will care about what they weren’t able to accomplish this season. They are going to bring it on Saturday and I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they pulled off the upset and won their 4th straight in the series.

The big thing to keep in mind with Army’s 5-7 record is they were on the wrong end of a lot of close games. In fact, their only loss by more than 9 points all season was their regular-season finale at Hawaii which saw the Rainbow Warriors return a pick 100 yards for a score. Instead of likely losing 38-45, they fell 31-52.

The numbers also suggest these two are a lot closer in terms of talent than the line would suggest. Both are elite rushing teams. Navy was No. 1 in the country in rushing and Army was No. 2. Both are also strong defensively. Midshipmen finished 33rd in total defense (324.5 ypg) and the Black Knights were 29th (337.8 ypg).

Something else to keep in mind is that while Navy went 7-1 in AAC play, they were very fortunate not having to play either UCF or Cincinnati out of the East. I just don’t think the Midshipmen are quite as good as people think. Give me Army +10.5!

50* CHAMPIONSHIP SATURDAY PLAY OF THE YEAR (Georgia +7.5) 

I'll take my chances with Georgia getting the touchdown and the hook in the SEC title game. I just think this is too good a price to pass up with Georgia in this matchup, as they are more than capable of winning this game outright.

All the talk is going to be centered around LSU quarterback Joe Burrow and the LSU offense and how Georgia won’t be able to keep pace. It’s hard to blame the public for their fascination with Burrow. He’s been exceptional and is a lock to win the Heisman Trophy.

My focus is on the other side of the ball, where I feel Georgia is the superior team. The Bulldogs are 2nd nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 10.4 ppg and are 4th in total defense, giving up just 257.0 ypg. They are No.2 in the country against the run (71.1 ppg) and No. 15 against the pass (186.0 ypg). Georgia hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in a single game this season and if they can keep that streak alive I think they win here outright.

I also like the fact that the Bulldogs have been in this spot before under Kirby Smart, as they have played in the SEC title game each of the last two years and were in the championship games just two seasons ago. I also think you can’t overlook the fact that this game means so much more to Georgia. The Bulldogs need to win to get into the playoffs, while LSU knows in the back of their minds that they are in even with a loss. Give me Georgia +7.5.

40* NCAAF CHAMP SATURDAY ATS SLAUGHTER (Cincinnati +10) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bearcats as a double-digit dog against the Tigers. The biggest thing you got to take into account with last week’s matchup between these two teams is that game meant everything to Memphis and next to nothing for Cincinnati. The Tigers had to win that game to clinch the AAC West, while the Bearcats already had their spot in the title game locked up.

Sure, Cincinnati put up a fight and wound up covering the spread, but there’s no doubt in my mind they held some things back that they are going to use in this game. They also used that game to give red-shirt freshman Ben Bryant his first start. Bryant did throw two picks in his debut, but he also had his moments. Bryant completed 63% (20-32) of his attempts for 229 yards and threw a 4-yard TD pass. He also rushed for a 12-yard score.

They gave Bryant the start to let starter Desmond Ridder rest his ailing shoulder, but it was such an encouraging performance that they are going with him again. Keep in mind that Ridder had not played well in the Bearcats previous two games, as he was just 18 of 43 (42%) for 140 yards in games against Temple and USF. Ridder had also not thrown for more than 172 yards in 5 straight games.

Giving up 34 points and 432 yards might not look all that great, but that was the Tigers lowest offensive output in total yards in their last 8 games. Memphis also benefited from running the opening kick by 94 yards. I expect Fickell to have an even better defensive gameplan in the rematch and I think we see a little more urgency out of the Bearcats defenders. Give me Cincinnati +10!

50* OREGON/UTAH PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Oregon +7) 

I just think we are getting too much value here with the Ducks getting a touchdown. Utah is simply overvalued because they have not only covered 8 straight games, but dominated in the process.

I also feel like Oregon’s lackluster performance against Oregon State has people hesitant to take them. That was 100% to be expected. In fact, the Beavers were my favorite play during Thanksgiving Week, simply because I knew the Ducks would struggle to play well off that loss to Arizona State.

I think the biggest thing here to Oregon putting that loss to the Sun Devils behind them is what’s at stake for Utah in this game. I think the Ducks can find all the motivation they need here playing spoiler and ruining the Utes hopes of making the playoffs. It’s also not the worst consolation winning here and getting to play in the Rose Bowl.

I think a lot of people look at Utah as being the far superior team, but I just don’t buy it. These two both went 7-1 against their 8 common opponents and the offensive numbers were almost identical in these games. Oregon averaged 34.5 ppg and 449 ypg, while Utah averaged 35.3 ppg and 448.6 ypg.

While the Utes did post slightly better defensive numbers in those games, I like how the Ducks matchup with the Utes offense. Utah has a pretty balanced offense, but the running game is what makes it all click. Oregon has a top tier run defense, as they are only giving up 106 ypg and 3.2 yards/carry against the run. Utah is also great at stopping the run, but the Ducks have an elite QB in Justin Herbert who can keep them on track. Give me Oregon +7!

40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS MASSACRE (North Carolina -10.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Tar Heels laying it on their in-state rivals and winning here by at least 2 touchdowns. UNC is going to be extremely motivated, as they need to win here to make a bowl, which is a pretty big deal given it's year one under new head coach Mack Brown. As much as NC State would love to play spoiler, they just don't have the talent to do so. These two teams have played the same 4 teams. UNC has a +2 scoring average in those 4 games and the Wolfpack own a -27 scoring average. This is a complete mismatch. Give me the Tar Heels -10.5! 

50* TX A&M/LSU SEC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Texas A&M +17) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Texas A&M as I just don't like this spot at all for LSU. The Tigers have already clinched a spot in next week's SEC title game against Georgia and a loss here does not hurt them in their hopes of making the playoffs. As long as they beat the Bulldogs they are in. I'm not saying they are going to lose this game, I just don't think they are going to be all that motivated to lay it on the Aggies. If they get up big, they are going to start looking ahead and I don't see Texas A&M quitting at any point. Aggies are arguably the best 7-4 team in the country, as their 4 losses have come against Clemson, Auburn, Alabama and Georgia. Their biggest setback in any of those games was a 19-point loss to Alabama and they were more competitive than that final score would indicate. Give me the Aggies +17! 

50* NCAAF IN-STATE RIVALRY PLAY OF THE YEAR (Oregon State +20)

I'll gladly take my chances here with Oregon State as a massive underdog. Usually I would look to fade a team like the Beavers off such a crushing loss like they suffered at Washington State last week, but not this time around. Oregon State is getting up to play Oregon no matter what the circumstances and they desperately need a win here to get bowl eligible.

While I’m 100% confident we get the best Oregon State has to offer, I got massive concerns here with Oregon showing up for this game. As tough as the Beavers loss had to be to swallow, it comes no where close to the heartache that the Ducks are dealing with from last week’s upset loss at Arizona State. That loss ended any hopes Oregon had of making the 4-team playoff.

With the playoffs out of the picture, there’s nothing for the Ducks to play for. They already got the Pac-12 North locked up and know they are going to be playing Utah in the Pac-12 title game with a chance to ruin the Utes hopes of making the playoff. This is such a bad spot for Oregon that I not only think they don’t cover, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they lost this game outright.

It reminds me a lot of a game I gave out a few years ago (2016) with Kentucky +27 at Louisville. The then Lamar Jackson led Cardinals were ranked No. 11 and were without a doubt the more talented team. However, they had just suffered their second loss of the season the week before at Houston, ending their hopes of making the playoffs. A 6-5 Kentucky team defeated their in-state rivals 41-38. Give me the Beavers +20!

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS SLAUGHTER (Michigan State -22.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Michigan State covering a big number at home against Maryland. I just don't think there's enough talent or fight left in this Terps team, which has been outscored 217-38 in their last 4 games. Michigan State snapped their losing streak with a 27-0 win over Rutgers last week and we can bank on a big effort in their home finale with them still needing one more win to get to a bowl game. Maryland has allowed 300+ rushing yards in 3 of their last 4, so I really don't have a lot of concern with the Sparty offense being able to move the ball. On the flip side, I wouldn't be shocked if the Terps didn't score a single point. Give me Michigan State -22.5! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Miami -8.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hurricanes covering the 8.5 at Duke on Saturday. I think this is the perfect spot to jump on Miami after an embarrassing loss to FIU last week as a 21-point favorite. Prior to that setback the Hurricanes had won and covered 3 straight. As for Duke, the Blue Devils are really struggling to get anything going. Duke has lost 5 straight and have not covered the spread since September. Miami is 17-5 ATS last 22 as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points and Duke is 0-6 ATS last 6 conference home games. Give me the Hurricanes -8.5! 

50* WISC/MINN BIG TEN PLAY OF THE MONTH (Minnesota +3) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Minnesota as a home dog against the Badgers. I was really impressed with how the Gophers came out last week in a massive letdown spot against Northwestern and I think there's no way they should be a home dog in this one. We saw just how crazy the atmosphere can be at TCF Bank Stadium when Minnesota knocked off Penn State a few weeks ago. It's going to be even more electric with the Gophers now 1-win away from playing in the Big Ten title game. As for Wisconsin, I just think they have flatlined a bit in the 2nd half. The defense that was so good early on has allowed 21+ in 5 straight games and I just think they are going to have a hard time slowing down the Gophers on the road. Give me Minnesota +3! 

40* OHIO ST/MICHIGAN EARLY BIRD ATS KNOCKOUT (Michigan +9.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Wolverines covering as a near double-digit home dog against the Buckeyes. I really think Michigan has a decent shot at winning this game outright. We saw last week that Ohio State isn't invincible, as they only beat Penn State by 11 at home. As for the Wolverines, I think they have only got better with each passing week, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The underdog has covered each of the last 3 and 5 of the last 6 in this series. Give me the Wolverines +9.5! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Missouri -12.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Tigers cashing in a win here by at least 14 and I actually think they easily win by 20. This game to me feels like a lot like Nebraska at Maryland, where the Cornhuskers desperately needed a win and were laying a short number against an awful Terps team. Missouri is 5-6 and needs a win here to get to bowl eligibility. Arkansas has lost 5 straight by 30 or more an are now asked to lose by less than 14 in a game that means nothing to them. Give me the Tigers -12.5

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Iowa -5.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Iowa. I think with Nebraska coming off that blowout win over Maryland, the Hawks failing to cover last week against Illinois at home and the Cornhuskers needing this win to get to bowl eligibility has a lot of people talking themselves into backing Nebraska. I just think it's a bad matchup for the Cornhuskers. Nebraska's offense is built on their ground game and this Iowa defense is built to stop the run. Cornhuskers also aren't great at stopping the run. When the Hawks have success on the ground they are really tough to beat. Give me Iowa -5.5! 

50* VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Va Tech -2.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hokies winning by at least a field goal at in-state rival Virginia.  This is for all the marbles, as the winner of this game will win the Coastal and get a shot at Clemson in the ACC title game. Not only do I think Virginia tech is the better team, but they have owned their in-state rivals, winning every single meeting between the two programs since the Hokies joined the ACC back in 2004. Virginia Tech has been one of the best kept secrets over the 2nd half. Most people wrote off this team after a 45-10 loss at home to Duke, but they have won 6 of 7 since and put together one of the best turnarounds on the defensive side of the ball that I can remember. Hokies have covered 6 straight and I just see no reason why you would jump off the money train at this point. Give me Virginia Tech -2.5! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Ohio -27.5) 

There’s just no way I’m putting my hard earned money on the Zips. I don’t care that they are winless or that this will be their home finale (senior day). Ohio is hands down the better team and I just don’t think it’s asking a lot for them to win here by four touchdowns.

Don’t be fooled by Akron’s cover last week against the RedHawks. Miami (OH) had nothing to play for in that game, as they had already locked up the top spot in the MAC East and all they are focused on right now is being 100% ready to go for the MAC Championship Game next week. If there was a game the Zips were going to cover, that was it.

This would be a different story if Ohio was already bowl eligible and were just playing for pride, but that’s not the case. If the Bobcats didn’t care about getting to a bowl, they wouldn’t have showed up last week at Bowling Green. I see no reason not to expect a similar beatdown on the road this week.

Bobcats are going to be able to score at will. A big reason for that is they should be able to run at will. Ohio is averaging 213 yards/game and 5.5 yards/carry and will be facing a Zips defense that is allowing 210 ypg on the ground. Give me the Bobcats -27.5.

40* NCAAF BIG MONEY ATS KNOCKOUT (Wake Forest -7) 

I'll take my chances here with the Demon Deacons winning by more than a touchdown at home. I just think we are getting a great price here with Wake Forest due to the fact that they come in off a couple of blowout losses at Virginia Tech and Clemson. No explanation needed for the blowout loss to the Tigers, but that Virginia Tech team is playing unbelievable football right now. This is the ideal bounce back spot. Not only are we going to get a big effort coming off of those losses, but this is also their final home game and senior day. Duke is playing as poorly as any Power 5 team out there and just got routed at home by a bad Syracuse team 49-6. Give me the Demon Deacons -7! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Temple +10.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Owls as a double-digit dog against the Bearcats. I just don't agree with this number at all. I feel like we are seeing Cincinnati getting way too much respect because they come in at 9-1. They have not put away teams like you would want to see for a team laying double-digits, especially given how well Temple has been playing. The Owls have had the Bearcats number of late with 4 straight wins in the series and I wouldn't be the least bit shocked if they won this game outright. Temple is also a team that always seems to play their best this time of the year. They are 12-3 ATS last 15 in the month of number. They have also covered 39 of their last 55 conference games, while the Bearcats are 6-16 ATS last 22 vs a team with a winning record. Give me the Owls +10.5! 

50* NCAAF FAVORITE ATS PLAY OF THE MONTH (Louisville -9) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Cardinals winning by double-digits at home against the Orange. I've really liked what I've seen out of Louisville under first year head coach Scott Satterfield. He doesn't get near enough credit for what he's done in year one. Cardinals are sitting at 6-4 with two of their losses coming against Notre Dame and Clemson and the other two on the road against FSU and Miami. 

I don't see them having any problem winning here by 10+ on senior day at home. Don't be fooled by Syracuse's 49-6 win over Duke last week as a 10.5-point dog. Few teams are playing worse than the Blue Devils right now, especially at the Power 5 level. Prior to that the Orange had lost 4 straight and that's their only win this season against a Power 5 opponent. There defense will be exposed and I just don't see the offense doing enough to keep this close. Give me the Cardinals -9! 

50* NCAAF SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE YEAR (UCLA +14) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Bruins getting two touchdowns against USC. UCLA was my only loser on the college card last Saturday, but I’m not going to let that keep me from jumping back on the Bruins this week. The big thing for me is that UCLA was not nearly as bad as the 49-3 final score would lead you to believe against Utah. The Bruins had a number of opportunities to make a game of it, but just couldn’t get out of their own way. UCLA turned it over 5 times and quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson was sacked 5 times.  A bunch of those turnovers and sacks came in Utah territory, which took points off the board. 

Give credit to the Utah defense, which has one of the best defensive lines in the country. They hands down won that game for the Utes. The key here is USC doesn’t have near the talent in their front seven. Look for the Bruins to get back on track in the running game against the Trojans. Prior to being held to a mere 50 rushing yards against Utah, UCLA had put together 5 straight games with at least 200 yards on the ground. Each of the last 4 resulting in at least 31 points.  

USC is giving up 167 rushing yards/game and 4.6 yards/carry and had a game earlier this season where they let Notre Dame rush for 308 yards. I think with UCLA’s offense getting back on track, they not only have a great shot at covering the 14-points spread, but potentially winning this game outright.  

Note that while the Trojans have won their last two games, they are just 2-10 ATS the last 3 seasons when coming in off 2 or more consecutive wins and are losing in this spot by an average of 4.8 ppg. Keep in mind a bad UCLA team that won just 3-games last year beat USC 34-27 at home. With that win Bruins head coach Chip Kelly improved to 4-1 against the Trojans and his offense just always seems to give the Trojans problems.  Give me UCLA +14!  

40* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK (Texas A&M +13.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Texas A&M covering the big double-digit spread on the road against Georgia. I think the Bulldogs are way overvalued here. Sure they have bounced back from that upset loss to South Carolina with 4 straight wins, but the offense has continued to struggle. Bulldogs have gone 5 straight games scoring 27 or fewer. I don't see that changing against a solid Aggies defense. I know the Georgia defense has been great, but a lot of their success has come against run-first teams. Texas A&M can not only run the ball (200+ yards in 3 straight games), but they have a legit quarterback in Kellen Mond. You could argue that Texas A&M is the 4th best team in the SEC, as their 3 losses this season are to Clemson, Alabama and Auburn. I don't that they can pull off the upset, but I'm confident they make a game of it. Give me the Aggies +13.5! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOODBATH (Virginia Tech -3.5)

I'll take my chances here with Virginia Tech laying the short number at home against Pitt. One of my biggest bets from last weekend was the Hokies and they delivered in a big way with a 45-0 thrashing of Georgia Tech on the road. They are now 5-1 in their last 6 with their only loss coming by 1-point against Notre Dame where the Irish needed a late score to secure a win. The Hokies have covered all 5 games during this stretch with a line and are simply playing as well as any team in the country right now. I just think people are slow to jump on board and they just continue to show value. Pitt has won 6 of their last 7, but 4 of those wins were against the likes of Duke, Delaware, Syracuse and Georgia Tech. They needed OT last week to beat UNC at home and I just think they are going to struggle to keep this close on the road. Give me the Hokies -3.5! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS SLAUGHTER (E Carolina -14.5) 

I'll take my chances here with East Carolina winning by more than two touchdowns on the road against UConn. You aren't going to find many 3-7 teams laying 14.5 on the road, but that just speaks volumes to how bad this Huskies team is. Connecticut is 2-8 with one of those being a mere 24-21 win against Wagner at home and the other a win over a UMass team who is one of the worst teams in college football in recent years. It's also not like this team is losing a lot of close games, the majority are by a wide margin. ECU has covered 5 of their last 6, so don't be fooled by their 5-game losing streak that they aren't playing well. Those last 5 were against much better teams and in their last two they have only lost by 3 to Cincinnati and by 8 at SMU. They got one of the better QB's noone knows about and should put up 40+ in this one. Give me the Pirates -14.5! 

40* NC STATE/GA TECH THURS NIGHT ATS MASSACRE (Ga Tech -1) 

I'll take my chances here with the Yellow Jackets as a slim 1-point home favorite against the Wolfpack. I think the public perception here is that Georgia Tech has no business being favored in this one, as they are just playing for pride and NC State is sitting at 4-6 and needing to win their final two to make a bowl. 

I just don't buy in as much to team that need to win out to make a bowl. Sure there's motivation there, but at the same time, there's a reason they are in this spot. I know Georgia Tech didn't play well last week in their blowout loss to Va Tech, but this team had shown some improvements over the season. I also think pride is more than enough for this team, as they are trying to build some positive momentum to close out their first year under head coach Geoff Collins. It also helps playing at home in a prime time game. Give me the Yellow Jackets -1! 

40* NCAAF MAC ATTACK ATS MASSACRE (Eastern Michigan +5) 

I'll take my chances here with Eastern Michigan covering the 5-point spread at Northern Illinois.  I just think we are going to get a really big effort here from the Eagles in this one, especially with how close they have been to putting an end to this losing streak against Northern Illinois (lost 11 straight, last 3 decided by 7 or less).

It should also be a lot easier for Eastern Michigan bouncing back from a cupcake win over Akron than it will for Northern Illinois off that big game against Toledo.

The Eagles offense should put up a big number in this one. While they got the win over Toledo, the Huskies gave up 508 yards to the Rockets. That’s after they allowed over 600 yards the previous time out against Central Michigan. Eastern Michigan’s offense has scored 34 or more in 3 of their last 4 and had 498 yards last week against the Zips.

Eagles are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. They are also an impressive 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games and 23-10 ATS last 33 after a game where they had 450 or more yards of total offense. Give me Eastern Michigan +5!

40* NCAAF  PRIME TIME PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (UCLA +21.5) 

I'll take my chances here with UCLA covering as a massive 21.5-point dog against the Utes. The Bruins might be just 4-5 overall, but they have played one of the toughest schedules in the country. Just like they did a year ago, they have greatly improved as the season has worn along. 

Utes are way overvalued right now after winning and covering in each of their last 5 games. The books may have been slow to adjust the number, but they definitely have inflated it here. Just a few weeks ago they were a 21-point favorite at home against Cal and the week before only a 16-point favorite at home against Arizona State. I would take UCLA against both of those teams right now. 

UCLA head coach Chip Kelly has gone 16-5 ATS as a head coach when facing a top tier team that's won more than 75% of their games. Give me the Bruins +21.5! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Appalachian State -16.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Appalachian State covering the 16.5-point spread at home against Georgia State. The Mountaineers should have no problem putting up a big number here. The Panthers defense is one of the worst in the country. They are giving up 36.0 ppg and 464 yards/game. 

I just don't see them being able to keep pace offensively with starting quarterback Dan Ellington sidelined with a knee injury. Ellington is what makes the Panthers offense go. He's competed 66% of his attempts with an 18-4 TD-INT ratio, while rushing for 603 yards and 5 scores.

Home underdogs who are allowing 35+ ppg and coming off 2 straight games with 60 or more combined points scored are a mere 30-75 (29%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Give me the Mountaineers -16.5! 

40* NCAAF PRIME TIME BOOKIE CRUSHER (Texas A&M -11) 

I'll take my chances here with Texas A&M laying it on the Gamecocks and covering the 11-point spread at home. I just think we got a case here of the Aggies being better than what they are getting credit for and South Carolina still getting a little too much love for their earlier upset win against Georgia. 

The thing is the Gamecocks have just been decimated by injuries and simply don't have the talent to keep this close against Texas A&M. Aggies are 6-3 with their 3 losses coming against Clemson, Auburn and Alabama. We saw them priced similarly in their last home game against Mississippi State and they easily covered as an 11.5-point favorite.

Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TEXAS A&M) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-6 (82%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Give me Texas A&M -11! 

50* NCAAF ACC GAME OF THE MONTH (Va Tech -5.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hokies winning by at least a touchdown on the road against the Yellow Jackets. I was dead wrong playing against Virginia Tech last week, but I'm getting some of that money back and some with them this week. The Hokies are so much better right now than they were to start the season it's not funny. 

Georgia Tech just covered on the road against Virginia, but they also lost by 10 at home the previous week to a pretty average Pitt team. More than anything, I just think this is a bad matchup for the Yellow Jackets. While they aren't as run heavy as their triple-option days, they still don't offer much in the passing game. That's a problem against this Hokies defense, which is giving up just 86 yards/game on the ground in their last 5. 

Georgia Tech is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS at home this season. Hokies are 29-12 ATS last 41 as a road favorite of 7 or less and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 when coming off an upset win over a conference opponent. Give me Virginia Tech -5.5! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Indiana +15) 

I'll take my chances here with the Nittany Lions catching more than two touchdowns at Penn State on Saturday. I feel the public perception is that Penn State is just going to bounce back from their loss at Minnesota, which was their first of the season. It's just not as easy bouncing back from your first loss this late in the season and I'm also not convinced Penn State is as good as people think. They could have easily lost at Iowa a few weeks back and at home to Michigan. 

Add in the biggest game of the season on deck next week against Ohio State and I think it's asking a lot for the Nittany Lions to win here in blowout fashion. Indiana comes in having won 4 straight and while it's been against soft competition, this team shows up ready to give it their all on a weekly basis. They are going to have even more fire coming off their bye. Give me Indiana +15! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Texas Tech +3) 

I really like the value with the Red Raiders in this one. Texas Tech will be coming into this game with a ton of confidence after going on the road and laying it on the Mountaineers 38-17 as a slim 2.5-point favorite. I not only think they cover the 3-point spread at home, but I think there’s a decent chance they win this one going away.

Not only do I think this is an ideal spot to jump on Texas Tech, but I think it’s an even better spot to fade TCU. The Horned Frogs are coming off an absolutely gut-wrenching 29-23 triple-overtime loss at home to undefeated and No. 12 ranked Baylor last week. TCU led the entire way only to see Baylor tie the game in the final seconds on a 51-yard field goal and then had to watch their defense give up 3 touchdowns in OT after they had held the Bears to 3 field goals in regulation.

Simply coming off that loss would have been a challenge. Add in the fact that TCU has a massive game on deck against No. 10 Oklahoma, who every team in the Big 12 has circled on the schedule and I think it will be near impossible for the Horned Frogs to play in Lubbock this Saturday.

Texas Tech quarterback Jett Duffey torched West Virginia’s secondary for 354 yards last week and the Red Raiders as a team come in completing 66% of their pass attempts for an average 309 yards/game. Texas Tech as a whole averages 32.2 ppg. Those stats are important to note given the matchup, as TCU is 2-9 ATS the last 2 seasons when facing an offense that completes 62% or more of their pass attempts and the same 2-9 ATS when facing a team that averages 31 or more points/game.

Horned Frogs have also been a good fade off a loss, as they are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after a defeat. They are also 2-6 ATS last 8 on the road. Give me Texas Tech +3!

50* NCAAF BOUNCE BACK ATS GAME OF THE MONTH(Alabama -17.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Alabama winning by 20+ on the road against Mississippi State. Much like the Patriots in the NFL, you take the Crimson Tide when they are coming off a loss. With or without Tua, I look for Alabama to lay it on the Bulldogs. 

Mississippi State has shown nothing to make you think they can be competitive enough to keep this close. They lost by 19 at Texas A&M, by 23 at home to LSU and by 33 at Auburn. THey also lost by double-digits to Tennessee, which really tells you all you need to know. 

Alabama 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games when listed as a favorite of 14.5 to 21 points and have covered 4 of their last 5 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Give me the Crimson Tide -17.5! 

40* NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT ATS SLAUGHTER (San Diego State PK) 

I'll take my chances here with San Diego State at a pick'em on their home turf against the Bulldogs. I'm not sure why this Fresno State team is getting so much love right now. The Bulldogs are atrocious defensively and really have no choice but to try to outscore teams. Fresno has allowed 37+ in each of their last 3. They can't stop the run and that's the one thing you need to be able to do to slow down the Aztecs. San Diego State's defense is also top notch, allowing just 14.4 ppg and really matchup well with what the Bulldogs do well offensively. Give me the Aztecs PK! 

40* NCAAF UNC/PITT ATS KNOCKOUT (N Carolina +4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with North Carolina getting more than a field goal at Pitt. I just think this line is a bit of a reflection of these two teams records, as Pitt is 6-3 and UNC is 4-5. However, the Panthers have played the much easier schedule (there 3 conference wins are against Duke, Syracuse and GA Tech) and all 5 of UNC's losses have come by 8 or less, including a mere 1-point loss to Clemson. Mack Brown always seems to get his teams to play well off a bye and I expect North Carolina to win this outright. 

Home favorites (PITTSBURGH) - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are just 7-30, 19% ATS over the last 5 seasons. Give me the Tar Heels +4.5! 

40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS NO-BRAINER (Georgia -16) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs winning by 3 scores over Missouri. All the talk this week in SEC country is centered around the big showdown between Alabama and LSU. I just think Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs are going to be out to send a message in prime time at home against the Tigers. Georgia won by 14 last year at Missouri and the last time they hosted the Tigers they won by 25. Missouri comes in off a 21-14 loss at Vanderbilt and a 29-7 loss at Kentucky. I just don't see them flipping the switch on the road against a hungry and motivated Georgia team. Give me the Bulldogs -16! 

50* ALABAMA/LSU SEC GAME OF THE YEAR (Alabama -5.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Crimson Tide laying less than a touchdown against LSU at home. All signs point to Tua playing and I want to point out I think they could beat the Tigers by a TD without him. With him, I don't think it's going to be close, especially with everyone jumping on the LSU bandwagon for this one. Joe Burrow has been special for the Tigers, but Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide have had two weeks to prepare for him and we just saw LSU score just 20 at home against Auburn. I think Burrow struggles and more than anything, I think the Tigers defense won't be able to stop the Alabama offense. Give me the Crimson Tide -5.5! 

40* NCAAF SITUATIONAL ATS KNOCKOUT (Wake Forest -1.5) 

I just feel like this is too good a price to pass up with Wake Forest laying less than a field goal. I think a big reason why we are seeing a lower line than what we should be is because the Demon Deacons have that big game against Clemson on deck. I’m sure if you asked head coach Dave Clawson he would say the same thing. Next week’s game against the Tigers means absolutely nothing if they don’t win this one.

In fact, I think the team that will struggle to show up this Saturday is Virginia Tech. I gave out the Hokies last week against Notre Dame, but that was 100% situational. I saw a ton of value with a Hokies team that had been playing well of late coming off a bye against a deflated Irish team that just had their playoff hopes crushed the week before.

It played out just as I expected, as Notre Dame did everything they could to give that game away. The Irish had an interception in the red zone that took points off the board and then had that catastrophic fumble in the final second of the 1st half that Va Tech returned for a 98-yard score. Notre Dame also had another pick in Va Tech territory just outside the red zone and missed a chip-shot 35-yard field goal. Notre Dame finished with a 442 to 240 edge in total yards and 25 to 12 advantage in first downs.

My concern with the Hokies isn’t that they got outplayed and lost the game, it’s how they lost the game. There’s just some losses that sting more than others and losing in the final seconds of historic Notre Dame Stadium is not one they will soon forget. I also think the fact that they can lose this game and still win the Coastal makes it that much tougher on them to bounce back.

All of this and I haven’t even got to the most important part and that’s that Wake Forest is the better team. The Demon Deacons have something special going and for me this one is all about the matchup. Wake Forest’s offense is built around their passing game. It’s ranked 9th in the nation at 323.6 ypg and will be facing a Virginia Tech secondary that ranks 109th, giving up 261.5 ypg.

Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson has not let his teams suffer letdowns. Clawson is 11-1 ATS in the 12 times his team has come in off a conference blowout win by 21 or more points. Give me Wake Forest -1.5.

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Louisville +7) 

I'll take my chances here with Louisville getting a touchdown against Miami. This one is pretty easy if you ask me. Hurricanes are coming off a huge win over rival Florida State and there hasn't been a better time to fade Miami than after playing the Seminoles. Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS with 4 outright losses the last 6 times they have taken the field the week after playing FSU. On top of that they are getting Louisville off their bye and new Cardinals head coach Scott Satterfield has gone 11-1 SU off a bye as a head coach. Louisville is also a lot better than people realize. Last time out they beat Virginia as a 4-point home dog. They also have an outright win at Wake Forest as a 7-point dog. Give me the Cardinals +7! 

40* NCAAF BIG MONEY ATS SLAUGHTER (Stanford -3) 

I'll take my chances here with Stanford laying just a field goal at Colorado. I think a lot of people have forgotten about this Cardinal team, as they wrote them off after 3 straight losses, but to no surprise, David Shaw has right the ship. Stanford is 3-1 in their last 4 and the only loss was in a game against UCLA where they didn't have their top two QBs. KJ Costello returned two weeks ago against Arizona and guided the Cardinal to a 41-31 win. I look for this team to be even sharper out of their bye and Colorado is in a complete free fall. Buffaloes have lost 5 straight and clearly there's problems on offense as they have scored 14 or less in 3 of their last 4, including a mere 10 against Washington State and 14 against UCLA. Give me Stanford -3! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS BLOWOUT (Virginia -15) 

I'll take my chances here with Virginia laying it on Georgia Tech. I was really impressed with Virginia's win last week at UNC and there's just no way Bronco Mendenhall is going to let his team suffer a letdown going into their late season bye. It's not secret the Cavaliers have a great defense and that's where I think we get our separation. Georgia Tech's offense is bad and offer little to no threat in the passing game. That's a problem against a Virginia defense that gives up just 3.3 yards/carry against the run. People like to knock the Cavaliers offense, but they are averaging 30.8 ppg and that jumps up to 39.7 ppg at home. Yellow Jackets also give up 218 yards/game and 4.7 yards/carry vs the run. Virginia is outscoring teams at home by 21.7 ppg. Give me the Cavaliers -15! 

50* PENN ST/MINNESOTA BIG 10 GAME OF THE MONTH (Penn State -6.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Nittany Lions going into Minnesota and winning by at least a touchdown. It's crazy to me how everyone has fallen in love with this Gophers team after dogging them early for near losses against South Dakota State, Fresno State, Georgia Southern and Purdue. Sure they have since whooped Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers and Maryland, but those are all bad teams. Penn State has been battle tested with wins over Iowa, Michigan and Michigan State in their last 3. They have heard all the talk about the Gophers during their bye week and I look for them to make a statement on Saturday. Where I think this gets ugly for Minnesota is they rely so much on the running game and I just don't see them being able to run on this Nittany Lions defense. Penn State is giving up a mere 68 ypg and 2.0 yards/carry this season. They are holding teams over 60 yards and 1.7 yards/carry under their season average. Give me the Nittany Lions -6.5! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS SLAUGHTER (Tulsa +17.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Golden Hurricane covering the 17.5 at home against UCF. I think a lot of people will assume Tulsa wont' show up here because they no longer have a shot at a bowl, but I'm not buying it. They are going to come to play at home against a team like the Knights in a primetime weekday game. Tulsa has more than held their own against the top teams in the AAC. They only lost by 1 at home to Memphis, by just 11 at Cincinnati and by a mere 6 at SMU. Easily could have won all of those games. Give me the Golden Hurricane +17.5! 

40* TEMPLE/S FLORIDA THURS NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (South Florida +2) 

I'll take my chances here with Charlie Strong having the Bulls ready to pounce on Temple tonight. I really like how Strong has got his teams to play coming off a bye and I think this South Florida team is riding a huge wave of momentum right now. I get they had some ugly losses, but the talent is there. As for Temple, I don't get why people are so high on this team. They got a win over Memphis, but that was the Tigers beating themselves. The Owls showed their true colors in the last two against SMU and UCF. This is also a team that lost by 16 on the road to Buffalo team that isn't very good. I think the wrong team is favored. Give me USF +2!

40* NCAAF WEDNESDAY MAC ATS NO-BRAINER (Miami +7) 

This line basically says that Ohio would be a 3.5-point favorite on a neutral field. I would have it closer to a pick’em, making this an easy play on the RedHawks. 

It’s not the first time the line has been inflated on Ohio this season. It’s why the Bobcats come into this game with a 2-6 ATS record. I don’t blame the books, as the public is backing Ohio at this price, so why not set it higher than it should be.

I like Chuck Martin and what he’s done with this program and he’s well on his way to taking Miami to their 2nd bowl game in 4 years (note that they were just 1 win away from bowl eligibility in 2017 and last year were 6-6 and just didn’t get an invite). Note that when he took over the RedHawks had been to a grand 3 bowl games since 1986.

Let’s also not overlook the fact that Miami comes in at 4-4 with 3 of their losses coming on the road against the likes of Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State.

Another thing I don’t like about Ohio laying this big a number is the way their defense has played. Bobcats allowed just 21 to Ball State, but a lot of that had to do with mother nature making conditions unfavorable to pass. The previous two games they gave up 38 to Kent State and 39 to Northern Illinois. They also allowed 45 to Lafayette. Give me Miami +7!

40* NCAAF TUESDAY NIGHT MAC NO-BRAINER (Kent St +7) 

This could turn out to be some really good value, as Toledo starting quarterback Mitchell Guadagni and backup quarterback Carter Bradley are both listed as questionable. If they can’t go I would actually give Kent State a good shot at winning this game outright. Not that they can’t of Guadagni or Bradley are able to go.

The other thing I think that’s playing into this line is just the public perception of these two programs. Kent State is not a team that people have wanted to bet on for a while now. The Golden Flashes haven’t won more than 4 games since that magical 11-3 season in 2012. While they have played a tough schedule with 3 Power 5 road games and have shown well in MAC play, the public only sees that they are 3-5 with 3 wins over Kennesaw State, Bowling Green and Akron.

I really think that head coach Sean Lewis is a head coach on the rise. When they hired him last year, he became the youngest head coach in the FBS at 31. He’s an offensive minded guy, who spent 6 years under Dino Babers in Syracuse, serving as the co-OC his last two years. He took over a Golden Flashes offense that averaged just 12.8 ppg in 2017 and got them to 23.9 ppg in 2018. They also jumped from 275 ypg to 384 ypg. This year they are at just 23.9 ppg and 366 ypg, but a lot of that is playing those 3 games against Arizona State, Auburn and Wisconsin.

Toledo’s defense has also been a big problem of late. They gave up 52 points and almost 600 yards of total offense to Ball State and then allowed 34 points and 450+ yards to Eastern Michigan. Give me Kent State +7!

50* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR (Colorado +7) 

I love the Buffaloes here as a 7-point dog against UCLA. The Bruins are fresh off an impressive 42-32 upset win at home over Arizona State and I believe it has them way overvalued here. This is still the same team that lost by 17 at home to Oregon State. Colorado has lost 4 in a row, but have been down a few key guys to injury and played 3 of the top teams in the conference in Washington, Washington State and USC. Colorado is healthier than they have been and I wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. Give me the Buffaloes +7! 

40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS SLAUGHTER (Ole Miss +20) 

I just think there’s a ton of hidden value here with the Rebels, as this is an absolutely brutal spot for Auburn. The Tigers are coming off that emotional loss to LSU, a game they absolutely had to have to have any shot at winning the SEC West. Bouncing back from that would have been tough on its own, but they also got a massive lookahead game at home next week against No. 8 Georgia.

I think it’s asking a lot for Auburn to have win this game by three touchdowns, especially when you factor in how much this game means to Ole Miss. The Rebels have to win here to have a legit shot at making a bowl game. Another big factor in favor of Ole Miss is they are going to be well rested and prepared coming off their bye week.

There’s also a great system in play favoring a fade of Auburn. Explosive offensive teams that are averaging 34+ points/games vs average defensive teams (21-28 ppg) are just 14-40 (26%) ATS since 1992 if they are coming off a loss by 3 or less at least 7 games into the season.

Home favorites who have won 60% to 80% of their games are also just 38-76 (33%) ATS if they come in having lost two of their last three. Give me Ole Miss +20.

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Oregon State +6) 

I actually think Oregon State has a great shot at winning this game outright. Arizona is a complete mess. The Wildcats had to show their DC the door after giving up 51 to Washington, 41 to USC and 41 to Stanford in their last 3 games. Arizona could easily be 2-6 as they have a mere 5-point win over Colorado and a 3-point victory against UCLA. Beavers have covered 5 of their last 6 as the books just aren't adjusting properly. They are also a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road with a couple of outright wins as a dog. This offense should have a field day against the Wildcats. Give me Oregon State +6! 

50* UTAH/WASHINGTON SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Utah -3) 

I'll take my chances here with Utah laying just a field goal on the road against Washington. It feels like people are trying to find anything they can to take the Huskies as a home dog. I get it, but at the same time, I feel it's going to take a perfect game from Washington for them to win this matchup. I know the Huskies passing numbers are solid, but I think a lot of that stems from their run game and you aren't running the ball on this Utah defense. Utes are giving up a mere 2.5 yards/carry. They are also pretty good against the pass, allowing just 5.6 yards/attempt and 56% completions. Utah will simply have the easier time moving the football, making them a no-brainer at this price. Give me the Utes -3! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Oklahoma St -2.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Mike Gundy and the Cowboys laying less than a field goal at home against TCU. I'm not quite sure why the Horned Frogs are getting so much love in this one. TCU is coming off a nice win at home against Texas, but the Longhorns have been trending in the wrong direction. I was actually more impressed with Oklahoma State's win on the road against Iowa State as a 11-point dog. TCU has lost both of their Big 12 road games and this is definitely not an easy place to go and get a win. Give me the Cowboys -2.5! 

50* NCAAF NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Virginia Tech +17.5) 

I think the public perception is that the Irish are going to be pissed off from that ugly loss to Michigan and will bounce back at home. I just have a hard time seeing it. I just don’t see a ton of motivation for the Irish now that they are out of the playoff picture.

Not only do I feel like Notre Dame is getting way too much respect, I still think the public is slow to take notice to how much better the Hokies are right now compared to early on. This is a different team than the one that started 2-2 with those ugly losses to BC and Duke. There’s just a different feel to this team with Hendon Hooker at quarterback.

I not only think Virginia Tech has the goods to keep this within the number, but I would give them an outside shot at winning this game outright. Notre Dame is 2-0 against teams from the ACC, but they only won by 18 at home to Louisville and by 15 at home against Virginia. Both of those games were a lot more competitive than the final scores would indicate. They only outgained the Cardinals by 40 yards and were outgained by 16 yards by the Cavaliers.

Another big factor here that can’t be overlooked is that while Notre Dame just played in arguably the biggest game of their season (they win that and they are in the driver seat to finish 11-1 and make the playoffs), while the Hokies were on a bye. Having two weeks to prepare for a team is huge, especially this late in the year.

Virginia Tech is 15-5 ATS last 20 off an upset win over a conference rival and 15-5 ATS last 20 on the road off a win by 6 or less. Notre Dame is just 16-31 ATS last 47 at home in the month of November and 4-13 ATS last 17 after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more at the half. Give me the Hokies +17.5.

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS KNOCKOUT (Michigan -21.5) 

I've really been impressed with how the Wolverines have looked the last two weeks. They didn't just beat Notre Dame last week, they absolutely destroyed them and they completely outplayed Penn State in the 2nd half the week before. 

A lot of people wrote this team off after that loss to Wisconsin and it was a mistake. Michigan is 4-1 ATS since that defeat and I just don't see Maryland being able to do enough offensively to keep this within the number. The Terps only had 128 total yards and were shutout at home by Penn State earlier this season. I don't know if Michigan shuts them out or puts 50+ on the scoreboard, but they should win here by 28 or more. Give me the Wolverines -21.5!  

40* W VIRGINIA/BAYLOR ATS SLAUGHTER (Mountaineers +18.5) 

You just have to believe we are getting value with the Mountaineers in this one. With this one of just two college games on the board Thursday, it’s going to get a lot of action. No way the public will want anything to do with West Virginia given their last two games ending in lopsided losses and Baylor sitting there at 7-0 and ranked No. 12 in the country.

Note that while the Mountaineers lost 38-14 at home to ISU, that was 14-14 at the half. They also only trailed Oklahoma 28-14 at the half before getting outscored by 24 in the final two periods. They only lost by 11 at home to Texas, despite a -3 turnover differential (outgained Longhorns 463-427). This team has what it takes to compete with Baylor.

I also don’t love how Rhule’s team has responded coming off a bye. Last year their only bye came the week before they got annihilated by West Virginia. This year they had an early bye before going to Rice and wound up winning 21-13 as a 27-point favorite.

Baylor has also been a horrible bet under Rhule as a home favorite. They are a mere 2-7 ATS as a home favorite since Rhule came to the program. That includes a 33-30 win at home over Texas Tech as 10.5-point favorite this year.

Another thing you have to keep in mind with West Virginia is they have played a brutal schedule. Six of their first seven opponents have been against Power 5 teams, as they played both Missouri and NC State in non-conference. Mountaineers are giving up 33.4 ppg, but their opponents offensive average is 32.0. They are giving up 408 ypg, which is actually under their opponents average of 447. Baylor’s opponents averages are just 27 ppg and 358.6 ypg, so you can see how much easier their schedule has been. Give me West Virginia +18.5!

50* NCAAF SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE MONTH (Notre Dame PK) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Fighting Irish. For me it’s all about the spot and how difficult it will be for Michigan to pick themselves up after that loss to Penn State and how big an edge it is for Notre Dame coming off a bye.

I think there’s a lot here that will tempt people to take the Wolverines. Michigan dominated the box score on the road against Penn State last week and I think it surprised a lot of people with how well they played. They were a dropped TD pass from tying the game at 28-28 with less than 2 minutes to play.

That’s great, but I’m looking at it from a psychological perspective. I believe the Wolverines had to win that game to keep any hopes of winning the Big Ten and making the playoffs alive. Given how good Ohio State looks, Michigan has to feel like they got no shot with 2 conference losses.

For a team that came into the season thinking not just winning the Big Ten, but playing for a national championship, where does the motivation come from right now? I get it’s a home night game against a Top 10 opponent, but is playing spoiler going to do the trick.

All of this and I probably would have been on Notre Dame at this price had Michigan won last week. Love that the Irish are coming off a bye and they have to have this one. A win and the Irish are looking at 11-1 and will at worst be in the conversation for a playoff spot. A loss and they will join the Wolverines as a team searching for motivation down the stretch run. Give me Notre Dame +1!

40* NCAAF (Texas Tech -4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Red Raiders cashing in a win and cover as a small road favorite against the Jayhawks. I think this is the perfect spot to fade Kansas, coming off a gut-wrenching 50-48 loss at Texas. I think they are getting way too much credit for how close they played the Longhorns. Let's not overlook the fact Texas was coming off their biggest regular-season game against rival Oklahoma. Kansas' only win vs an FBS opponent is still BC. This team lost at home to West Virginia and Coastal Carolina. Re Raiders are going to show up coming off 2 straight losses. This is also a must-win for Texas Tech to have a legit shot at a bowl game. Give me the Red Raiders -4.5!

40* NCAAF (North Carolina -3) 

My favorite play last week was Virginia and it wasn't so much cause I love the Cavaliers. It was 100% a fade of Duke. I don't think this Blue Devils team is that great. I thought they had a very misleading 4-2 record going into that Virginia game and it showed. They lost 48-14 and 65 of their 250 total yards came in a meaningless TD drive in the final minutes down 48-7. UNC has been better than expected in the first year under Mack Brown and I think they will have no problem winning here by more than a field goal. Give me the Tar Heels -3! 

40* NCAAF (Stanford -1) 

I'll take my chances here with Stanford. It's looking likely that K.J. Costello will play for the Cardinal, as head coach David Shaw said he's in between the questionable to probable state for the game. Having him back makes this a different team. Also, I think Stanford can win here even if he doesn't play. Arizona is nothing special and their only road win was a 5-point victory against Colorado. Last week they lost by 27 at USC. 

Stanford is 17-7 ATS last 24 after a SU loss and 10-4 ATS last 14 after totaling 275 or less total yards. Arizona just 7-19 ATS last 26 on the road and a mere 3-8 ATS last 11 road games vs a team that doesn't have a winning home record. Wildcats also just 1-4-1 ATS last 6 off a loss by 20 or more. Give me the Cardinal -1! 

40* NCAAF (Penn State -5)

I'll take my chances here with Penn State laying the 5. I think enough is being made about how awful a spot this is for the Nittany Lions having just played two huge games against Iowa and Michigan and catching the Spartans off a bye. I just don't think it's going to matter. 

Michigan State's offense is anemic. Last time out they were shutout at Wisconsin and the week before scored just 10-points at Ohio State. They also had just 7 points in a home loss to Arizona State. Penn State's defense is the real deal and while they could struggle to put up a big number, they won't need to. 

I also think some of the letdown for the Nittany Lions will be negated by the fact that they have lost the last two in the series as big favorites. Give me Penn State -5! 

50* NCAAF POWER 5 PLAY OF THE YEAR (Wisconsin +15) 

I'll gladly back the Badgers getting two touchdowns against Ohio State. I think a lot of people would have been all over Wisconsin at this line had they not just lost as a massive favorite against Illinois. I also think we are starting to hear a lot about how much better the Buckeyes are than the rest of the Big Ten. 

I'm not saying the Badgers are going to beat Ohio State, but I do feel pretty confident they can cover the spread. Wisconsin has an elite run defense. They are allowing just 2.2 yards/carry, holding teams almost 2 yards under their season average. Ohio State has rushed for 225+ yards in every game. I'm banking on that streak ending and for the Badgers to be able have some success with Taylor on the ground. 

Home favorites who are undefeated and have beaten the spread by 35+ points in their last 3 games are a mere 15-43 (26%) ATS the last 5 seasons. Badgers are also 32-14 ATS last 46 vs teams who average 450+ yards/game and have held these teams to an average of 24.2 ppg. Give me Wisconsin +15! 

40* NCAAF (Northwestern +10) 

I’m shocked that Iowa is laying double-digits on the road with how bad that offense has looked the last week weeks. I get struggling to move the ball against the likes of Michigan and Penn State, who both have elite talent on the defensive line. To have to grind the way they did against Purdue’s defense is not good.

You hear a lot about Iowa’s offensive line and the two NFL prospects they got at the left and right tackle spots. The problem is the interior three are not good. They barely averaged more than 3 yards/carry against the Boilermakers and that’s after totalying 71 rushing yards in the previous two combined.

Northwestern is giving up 187 rushing yards/game, but only 4.4 yards/carry and the numbers are a bit skewed because of their tough schedule. They have already faced Stanford, Michigan State, Wisconsin Nebraska and Ohio State, with 3 of those on the road. Their only easy game was at home against UNLV.

They only gave up 17 to Stanford, 24 to Wisconsin and 13 to Nebraska. They allowed 31 to Michigan State, but a lot of that was due to turnovers. Spartans only had 337 total yards.

It’s also looking like Iowa will be without leading receiver Brandon Smith, who is their best weapon on the outside. Another big injury for the Hawkeyes is on the other side of the ball, where leading tackler Kristian Welch might have to miss another game.

Add in how well Pat Fitzgerald’s team has done against Kirk Ferentz of late with 3 straight wins, two of those at Iowa, I don’t know how you don’t take Northwestern. Give me the Wildcats +10!

50* NCAAF PRIME TIME PLAY OF THE MONTH (Georgia -24.5) 

I'll gladly take Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs to lay it on Kentucky this Saturday. I was on the Gamecocks last week at +25 in the upset win at Georgia. It was a perfect storm for South Carolina with them coming off a buy and probably catching the Bulldogs by surprise. 

It happens, but lucky for Georgia their season isn't dead. If they win out they are in the playoffs. They don't turn it over 4 times they beat SC and I think this line is 30+. They outgained the Gamecocks 468 to 297. Kentucky is not good. They barely beat a bad Arkansas team at home. 

Kentucky has no passing game after losing Terry Wilson. That's a problem against a pissed off Georgia defense that is phenominal against the run. Bulldogs are giving up just 2.7 yards/carry and holding teams almost 1.5 yards under their average/carry. This has blowout written all over it. Give me Georgia -24.5! 

40* NCAAF (Oklahoma State)

This is easy. You have No. 18 Baylor sitting at 6-0 and getting not just a field goal but the hook as well against an unranked opponent. Whenever you see a ranked team as a dog against an unranked team, it's play the favorite or pass. I'm playing the Cowboys here. Bears are good, but this is a quality Oklahoma State team that really plays well at home, especially in big games. I also love that they had a bye to really get things right after that upset loss at Texas Tech. Give me Oklahoma State -3.5! 

40* NCAAF (SMU -7.5)

I'll take my chances here with SMU winning here by double-digits. Books are begging you to take Temple here with this on the other side of 7. Owls are 5-1 and just won at home against Memphis. I just don't think Temple is that good. They had a nice win at Maryland early, but the Terps were not what we thought. They lost by 16 at Buffalo, where outgained by an awful Georgia Tech team and only won by 10 at a bad ECU team. SMU is off a bye and this Mustangs team is the real deal. I don't think it will be close for long on Saturday. Give me SMU -7.5! 

50* NCAAF ACC GAME OF THE MONTH (Virginia -3) 

I think this is the perfect time to buy low on the Cavaliers and sell high on the Blue Devils. I definitely feel like the number here is way too low given how I rank these two teams.I get that Duke is 4-2 and tied for the ACC Coastal lead, but I'm not really sure what they have done to make people think they are legit.

They have wins over North Carolina A&T, Middle Tennessee, Va Tech and Georgia Tech. You can't read anything into a FCS win, Middle Tennessee is not any good, Va Tech was a complete disaster before they made a QB change and Georgia Tech is by far the worst team in the ACC and maybe the worst Power 5 team in the country.They got annihilated by Alabama, which was to be expected, but they also were outgained 512 to 204. As for the 33-30 loss at home to Pitt, that doesn't look all that bad, but they trailed 26-3 in the 2nd half of that one.Virginia went on the road and beat that same Panthers team 30-14 and also have a nice win at home over Florida State.

Losing to Notre Dame by 15 and not covering is misleading, as they really beat themselves with 5 turnovers. They actually outgained the Irish 338 to 322 and led 17-14 at the half. As for the loss last week to Miami, they were without a doubt the better team, but you get that crazy stuff in weekday games where the better team doesn't always win.

I look back at how much this Blue Devils offense struggled to move the ball against Alabama and I just can't see how they are going to do enough offensively in this game to keep it close. Duke's only game against a FBS opponent with more than 188 yards passing was vs Middle Tennessee and they only had 237 in that one. 

That's a serious problem because Virginia ranks 11th in the country against the run, giving up just 90 yards/game (2.7 yards/carry).Lastly, you got to factor in the history of this series. Virginia has won and covered 4 straight. All 4 wins have come by at least 7 points. I get the Blue Devils are good as a dog, but I don't see much bit in the Blue Devils Saturday. Give me Virginia -3!

50* NCAAF BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR (Indiana -5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Hoosiers laying less than a touchdown against the Terps. It doesn't look right to see Indiana laying points on the road, but I don't see them having any problem winning this game. I don't think people quite realize how good this team is. A big reason for that is a 51-10 loss at home to Ohio State. Their only other loss is to Michigan State on the road, where they had a 24-21 lead in the 4th and were tied 31-31 with 2 minutes to go. They lost by 9, but only because Mich St returned a fumble on the final play. 

Maryland is down their No. 1 quarterback in Josh Jackson, No. 2 wide out Darryl Jones, two linemen and will likely not have starting running back Anthony McFarland. They just got annihilated 40-14 to a banged up Purdue team that looked awful the week before at Penn State and lost at home to TCU and Minnesota. Give me Indiana -5! 

40* NCAAF (Miami -18) 

I'll take my chances here with Miami winning by 20+ against Georgia Tech. Even though the Hurricanes are off a 17-9 upset win at home against a ranked Virginia team, the perception was that they didn't deserve to win. It was more about how the Cavaliers blew it. I think that's kept the hype off Miami and provided us with a ton of value. Yellow Jackets are bad man. Yes, they outgained Duke 379 to 373. Who cares. They were down 38-7 and did next to nothing offensively until the Blue Devils were up 31. Duke won by 18 scoring just 3 points in the final 33 minutes. Miami's feeling good right now and they are not out of the wide-open ACC Coastal. Give me Miami -18! 

40* NCAAF (Iowa -17.5) 

If you bet Iowa the last two weeks and a lot of people probably did, you probably can't even stomach thinking about backing the Hawks laying 17.5 at home to a Purdue team that just beat Maryland 40-14 at home. The Terps are banged up and a lot worse than people think, so let's not overreact to that win. Iowa's offense couldn't do anything against two elite defensive fronts in Michigan and Penn State. They will have no problem moving the ball against Purdue. The Hawkeyes defense hasn't given up more than 17 points in any games. I think Iowa looked similarly talented to Penn State and the Nittany Lions were a 28.5-point home favorite against Purdue. They won 35-7 and outgained the Boilermakers 460 to 104. Give me the Hawks -17.5! 

50* NCAAF C-USA PLAY OF THE MONTH (FAU -4.5) 

Books have repeatedly overvalued Marshall this season. The Thundering Herd are just 1-5 ATS and have failed to cover 4 straight.

Revenge is always a huge motivator in college football and the fact that the Thundering Herd embarrassed FAU in last year’s meeting only makes me like the Owls that much more. I also think FAU has a big edge here with playing at home on a short week of rest.

The other big thing for me when handicapping this matchup is quarterback play. FAU’s Chris Robinson is completing 64% of his attempts with a 13-2 TD-INT ratio. Marshall’s Isaiah Green is only completing 57.2% of his attempts with a 8-5 TD-INT ratio.

Another thing with Green is that he’s got a 1-4 TD-INT ratio in Marshall’s two true road games. Green’s inability to protect the football away from home is an even bigger concern when you factor in how good FAU’s defense has been at creating turnovers. The Owls have 11 takeaways during their 4-game winning streak.

FAU is also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing less than 20 points last time out. Marshall is just 1-8 ATS last 9 after allowing less than 20 points and 1-5 ATS lat 6 off a win. Give me the Owls -4.5!

50* S ALABAMA/TROY TUESDAY NIGHT ATS NO-BRAINER (S Alabama +16) 

Even though Troy has a losing record at 2-3 and been a terrible bet this season (1-4 ATS), they are the much more familiar team to the public. Just last year the Trojans won 10-games and have upset the likes of Nebraska and LSU the past two seasons.

South Alabama on the other hand is a team the public wants nothing to do with. The Jaguars are sitting at 1-5 with their only win against a FCS opponent. This is after they went just 3-9 last year and 4-8 in 2017. I got a hard time not thinking this line isn’t inflated in favor of Troy.

It’s not like the Jaguars haven’t been playing well. They only lost 13 at ULM (trailed by just 7 going in the 4th quarter) and should have won outright as a double-digit dog last time out against Georgia Southern.

The big concern with South Alabama is definitely the lack of offensive fire-power. Jaguars haven’t scored more than 21 against a FBS opponent this season. With that said, Troy’s defense has not been good. The Trojans have allowed 40+ on 3 separate occasions. They are horrible against the pass, allowing 10.2 yards/pass attempt. They are also giving up 6.3 yards/play.

You also can’t ignore the history of the series. Road team has won outright each of the last four and South Alabama is 3-1 ATS during this stretch. This is not the same Troy team as years past. Give me the Jaguars +16!

40* NCAAF (Iowa +3.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Hawkeyes covering the 3.5 point spread at home against the Nittany Lions. I get the line here with Penn State undefeated and Iowa off an ugly loss at Michigan, but I just think this Hawkeyes team should not be a dog in this fight. Penn State has looked impressive, but they haven't played anyone close to as good as Iowa. 

You also have to factor in the magic that's taken place at Kinnick in these prime time night games. It's going to be electric in Iowa City and I think a young Nittany Lions team will be a bit overwhelmed with the atmosphere. Keep in mind their only road game all season was at Maryland, which is not exactly a tough place to play. Give me Iowa +3.5! 

40* NCAAF (Louisville +7) 

I'll take my chances here with Louisville +7. I want to point out that Wake Forest OVER 6 wins was one of my favorite win total plays of 2019. I just think now that they are 5-0 and ranked No. 19, they are getting way too much respect against a decent Louisville team. 

I get the rankings are often based off a team's record, but it's not like the Demon Deacons have played the stiffest of competition. They needed a last second TD to beat Utah State at home 38-35. They only won by 6 at home against UNC and squeaked by with 3-point win at BC. 

Louisville's only two losses are against Notre Dame and on the road at Florida State. There's a lot more talent on this roster than people realize. They just remember how bad this team was late last year when everyone quit on Bobby Petrino. They got a legit head coach now in Scott Satterfield and I think this is a game they could easily win outright. Give me Louisville +7! 

50* USC/ND NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (USC +11) 

I'm surprised we aren't hearing more about USC as a legit threat to upset Notre Dame on the road this weekend. People just don't want to give the Trojans any love and that's a big reason why I like them.

Nore Dame is a quality team with a good QB in Ian Book, but I don't think this year's squad is playoff material. Sure they played Georgia tough on the road, but they were down 23-10 with less than 5 minutes to play. Georgia also hasn't looked as good as they have the past two years. 

USC has the good on offense, especially at wide receiver to move the ball against this Irish defense and the defense has been better. You also got the Trojans playing on two weeks of rest, while Notre Dame is not and the Irish have a big road game at Michigan next week. Give me USC +11! 

50* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE MONTH (Kentucky -6.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Kentucky laying less than a touchdown at home against the Razorbacks. I just think we are getting a very favorable line here with the Wildcats due to them coming in having lost 3 straight. 

This is not as talented a Kentucky team as last year, but it's definitely good enough to win at home in a prime time night game against a bad team like Arkansas. Keep in mind the Wildcats are coming off a bye, so they are going to be 100% locked in. The Razorbacks lost at home to San Jose State and by 14 on the road against Ole Miss. Give me Kentucky -6.5! 

40* NCAAF (Iowa State -10) 

I'll take my chances here with the Cyclones laying it on the Mountaineers. Iwas on ISU in the win and cover against ULM, I faded them in their loss at Baylor and backed them as a small home favorite in a blowout win over TCU. I like them to cruise in this one. 

West Virginia just played their hearts out at home against Texas and were down just 4-points going into the 4th quarter. They have to be thinking if they don't turn it over 4 times they win that game. Tough one to bounce back from. 

As for ISU they got no room for error after losing that game at Baylor, so we can expect a max effort. The Cyclones could easily be 5-0 and ranked inside the Top 15, as they blew both losses to Iowa and Baylor. Last year ISU beat West Virginia 30-14 and it should have been worse, as they outgained them 498 to 152. Give me the Cyclones -10! 

40* NCAAF (Baylor -10.5) 

It's about time the Bears got the respect they deserve. Baylor is 5-0 and finally ranked in the Top 25. You got to be impressed with how this team went on the road and whooped K-State 31-12 last week. The thing is, the public is all over Texas Tech here after their big upset win at home against Oklahoma State. 

Big reason the Red Raiders were able to have success in that game is the Cowboys turned it over 5 time sand don't have the best defense. People think of Baylor as this fast-paced offensive taem that is okay defensively. Bears are a lot better than okay on defense under Matt Rhule. They are holding teams to 3.1 yards/cary and 5.9 yards/completion. 

In the Red Raiders two road games they have lost by 14 to Arizona and by 39 at Oklahoma. No reason not to think Baylor doesn't win here by at least 14. Give me the Bears -10.5! 

40* NCAAF (Texas A&M +17.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Texas A&M covering the 17.5 at home against the Crimson Tide. Few are giving the Aggies any shot in this game, but this the last team you want to count out at home. 

This is the game the Aggies have had circled all year. Jimbo Fisher is looking to be the first former Saban assistant to beat him. I don't know that they will, but I think they got the goods to at least keep it within the number. 

Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that have gained 475 or more total yards in 3 straight games and are outgaining teams on the seaon by 125+ yards/game are a mere 11-33 (25%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Give me the Aggies +17.5! 

40* NCAAF (Washington St +1.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Cougars as a small road dog against the Sun Devils. I believe the books are telling you exactly who they think is going to win this game by making No. 18 ranked Arizona State a mere 1.5-point home favorite against a Washington State team that has lost two straight and is off an ugly 38-13 loss at Utah. 

Arizona State has two impressive road wins over Michigan State and Cal. Two horrible offensive teams. Washington State can light up the scoreboard with that passing attack and the Sun Devils defense is much better at stopping the run than the pass. 

Road teams that are winning 51% to 60% of their games and off a loss by 21 or more to a conference opponent are 63-29 (69%) ATS since 1992. Give me Washington State +1.5! 

50* NCAAF UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE MONTH (Michigan St +10.5)

I love the Spartans as a double-digit road dog against the Badgers. Not only is Michigan State good enough to cover, but they can win this game outright. People have fallen in love with Wisconsin because of a blowout win against Michigan. It was impressive at the time, but the Wolverines look worse and worse each week. 

I get the Spartans just gave up 323 rushing yards to Ohio State, but the Buckeyes have a very mobile QB and are one of the best teams in the country. Even after that performance they are only giving up 3 yards/carry. That tells you how good they are on that side of the ball. Wisconsin had their hands full against a good Northwestern defense and without Jonathan Taylor going wild there's a lot to be scared of with the Wisconsin offense (3 straight games with less than 135 yards passing). Give me the Spartans +10.5! 

40* NCAAF (South Carolina +25) 

Gamecocks will be returning from their bye week looking to build on an impressive 24-7 win and cover at home against Kentucky as a mere 3-point favorite. South Carolina has  covered 3 of 4 since that upset loss as a double-digit favorite to North Carolina in the opener. The only non-cover came in a 20-point loss at Missouri as a 9.5-point dog and the Tigers had two non-offensive touchdowns in that win.

No question the books have inflated this number with Georgia being ranked No. 3 in the country and having just covered as a 24-point favorite at Tennessee. I just haven’t been as impressed as I thought I would be with the Bulldogs so far. The win over Notre Dame looks good at the moment, as the Irish are 4-1, but I could see them losing at least a couple more games.They are 2-0 in the SEC but have played the two worst teams in Vanderbilt and Tennessee. They were only up 21-6 on the Commodores at the half and trailed the Vols in the 2nd quarter.

I actually think with the Gamecocks coming off a bye and having two weeks to prepare, they could possibly give the Bulldogs a serious scare in this game. Georgia is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after covering a spread and the Gamecocks are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Give me South Carolina +25!

50* VIRGINIA/MIAMI FRIDAY NIGHT SHARP TOP PLAY (Miami -2) 

I'll take my chances here with Miami as a small home favorite. Unranked teams who are favored against a team ranked in the Top 25 have had an alarming amount of success against the spread. Anytime the books set a line like this that they know the public can't resist, especially in a weekday night game when it's going to be one of the biggest bet games, you just have to go against the public. I think Miami got a wake-up call in last week's loss to Va Tech. Manny Diaz is taking over more of the defense this week and Virginia's offense is limited. I think turnovers will be huge and I think Perry surprises some people. Give me the Hurricanes -2! 

40* NCAAF SYRACUSE/NC STATE ATS KNOCKOUT (NC State -4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with NC State laying less than a touchdown at home against the Orange. Syracuse has won their last two and are off a bye, but this is still the same team that lost 63-20 at Maryland. I like the QB change that NC State is going with in this one. Bailey Hockman should have a field day against this Orange secondary. Syracuse gave up 296 in the air to Maryland, 391 to Clemson and 356 to Western Michigan. Wolfpack's only two losses have come on the road against Power 5 opponents. They too are off a bye and while they lost 31-13 last time out at FSU, they actually outgained the Seminoles 370 to 369. I think the Wolfpack win and win big. Give me NC State -4.5! 

50* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (UCLA -5.5) 

Love UCLA laying less than a touchdown at home. I know there's a chance Dorian Thompson-Robinson doesn't play, but they are going up against a bad Oregon State defense. Beavers are allowing 428 ypg and 6.1 yards/play in 2019. Also, I think the UCLA offense is way better than people realize. The numbers are simply skewed because of a brutal schedule. They have played Cincinnati, San Diego St, Oklahoma, Washington State and Arizona. Three of those on the road with Oklahoma one of the two home games. Oregon State nearly upset STanford but lost in a gut-wrencher 31-28. Beavers are 0-1 on the road this year (lost at Hawaii) and are now 1-23 away from home since 2015. Give me UCLA -5.5! 

40* NCAAF (Pittsburgh +5) 

I think this is the ideal spot to fade Duke. People are falling in love with the Blue Devils because they destroyed Va Tech on the road. There's some serious problems with that Hokies team. Their only other wins are against N Carolina A&T and Middle Tennessee. They lost by 39 to Alabama and the Crimson Tide didn't play great. Keep in mind Duke was picked to finish in the bottom half of the Coastal. I just think the Blue Devils are a bit of fools gold right now. Pitt on the other hand, we know they are legit. I know they barely scarped by 17-14 at home against Delaware last week, but they actually makes me like them more in this spot. I think they win outright. Give me the Panthers +5! 

40* NCAAF (Oregon -17.5) 

This is one of those high-profile games where the number is drawing a lot of attention to the underdog. I think people see Cal with road wins over Washington and Ole Miss and think they can keep this within 17.5. Maybe if it was in Berkley. When Oregon is good, they are really tough to play against at home, especially in night games. I think they got a QB in Herbert that can dissect a good Golden Bears defense and if they get up early at all this will spiral out of control. Oregon needs to not just win, but win big in Pac-12 play if they want to get back in the playoff picture. They won't let off the gas. Give me the Ducks -17.5! 

40* NCAAF (Tulsa +13) 

It's been quite a start to 2019 for SMU, who is now ranked No. 24 to go along with being 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS. I just don't know that's warranted. They got a few wins against teams that I think we expected to be good but aren't (S Florida, North Texas). They also have that big road win over TCU, but that result didn't surprise me. I don't think the Horned Frogs are all that great this year. It can be tough for teams to handle the spotlight that comes with being in the Top 25. Tulsa is also no pushover. They have played Michigan State tough on the road and Oklahoma State tough at home. They got a defense that is a lot better than people realize. I think they give the Mustangs all they can handle. Give me Tulsa +13! 

40* NCAAF (Michigan State +21) 

I just got a gut feeling that now is the time to fade Ohio State. A lot of people, including myself, got burned backing Nebraska last week as a 17.5-point home dog to the Buckeyes. Will be hard for a lot of people to back a Michigan State team to keep this within 21. I get it, but I think this is the role that Sparty thrives in. Ohio State isn't going to be perfect every single time out. They are due for a let down. I know the offense isn't great for Michigan State, but the defense is lights out and I think they do enough on that side to keep this within the number. Give me the Spartans +21! 

40* NCAAF (Colorado -4)

Really like the Buffaloes to cover the 4-point spread at home against Arizona. Not only do I think Colorado is the better team, but the Wildcats could be without starting QB Khalil Tate and if he does play I don't expect him to impact the game like he has. Last year he got banged up and just simply didn't run at all. They also might be without running back J.J. Taylor. Wildcat are 3-1 and riding a 3-game win streak, but all were at home. Arizona is just 1-6 ATS last 7 on the road vs a team with a winning (.500 or better) home record. Also just 7-19 ATS last 26 road games overall. Give me the Buffaloes -4! 

50* NCAAF BIG TEN PLAY OF THE MONTH (Nebraska -7) 

This is an easy play for me on the Cornhuskers. I get Nebraska couldn't have looked much worse than they did at home against Ohio State. Clearly the Cornhuskers aren't at the level they want to be at under head coach Scott Frost. What people need to realize is Ohio State is really good. If this was later in the year and Nebraska was like 7-1 and lost this game I could see them not showing up the next week, but they still got a lot to play for at 3-2 and 1-1 in the Big Ten. Their goal has to be winning the west and getting another crack at the Buckeyes. Northwestern's offense is atrocious and the defense can only carry you so far. Not to mention a letdown for the Wildcats off a closer than expected loss to Wisconsin. Give me Nebraska -7! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (K-State -1)

I’ve really been impressed with what I’ve seen out of this K-State team under new head coach Chris Klieman. For those that don’t know, Klieman won 4 national championships in 5 seasons at the FCS level with North Dakota State.

There’s no denying that the Wildcats got outplayed by Oklahoma State, but winning on the road in Stillwater is not easy, especially in a night game. Cowboys were also playing inspired off a loss to Texas. I think we are going to see that script reversed this week with K-State feeding off the home crowd in a game we know we are getting their best after that ugly loss.

Another thing is the Wildcats defense simply had no answer for the Cowboys Chuba Hubbard, who had 296 yards on just 25 attempts. Hubbard leads the country with 938 yards (next best is J.K. Dobbins at 654). Baylor doesn’t have that kind of talent at running back.

The Bears come in averaging a healthy 216 rushing yards/game, but most of that came against Stephen F Austin and UTSA. They had just 124 rushing yards on 35 attempts against Rice and 104 yards in 34 attempts against ISU.

Charlie Brewer has been solid for the Bears, but K-State’s pass defense ranks 2nd in the country giving up just 127.3 ypg.

This is also the first real road test for Baylor. Their only other road game was at Rice and while they pulled off the dogs after getting up 21-0, they also only beat the Owls by a final score of 21-13. I just think the Bears are getting a little too much respect in this one. Give me the Wildcats -1.

50* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE YEAR (Iowa State -3) 

I think the books have made a huge mistake here only making Iowa State -3 at home against the likes of TCU. This line says that it would be a pick'em on a neutral field. Maybe even have TCU favored. Not buying that for a second. Cyclones are better on both sides of the ball. Usually you give TCU the head coaching edge with Gary Patterson, but I would rather have Matt Campbell as my head coach if I was starting a program today. If it comes down to QB play the Cyclones have a clear edge with Brock Purdy, who is one of the best kept secrets in the country. I just don't see Iowa State losing this at home and going to 0-2 in Big 12 play. Give me the Cyclones -3! 

40* NCAAF (Louisville -5.5) 

I think Louisville is in a lot better shape than people realize. Most just wrote off the Cardinals this year because they were coming off an ugly 2-10 campaign (really weren't competitive in a lot of games) and going to be in the first year of a new head coach. I think a lot of last year's struggles was the team quitting on head coach Bobby Petrino. I thought they looked like a completely different team in their opener against Notre Dame and again in a 24-35 loss at Florida State (led 24-21 in the 4th). I think they are going to be desperate for a win coming out of their bye. They are every bit as good offensively as BC, but are much better defensively and will have the home crowd to give them energy. Give me the Cardinals -5.5! 

40* NCAAF (Utah State +28) 

I think it's worth a shot to play Utah State as a 4-touchdown dog against the Tigers. I know the Tigers have whooped up on some bad teams the last couple of weeks and have covered some big spreads. I just think this is one of those spots where the Ed Orgeron fire isn't there. They are sitting at No. 5 and couldn't have looked better going into their bye. They know they are better than Utah State and have a huge home game against Florida (homecoming) on deck. Utah State has a really good quarterback in Jordan Love, who I think will be able to make some plays and keep this within the number. LSU defense hasn't exactly been great, giving up 38 at Texas and 38 to Vanderbilt. Give me the Aggies +28! 

40* UCF/CINCINNATI ATS MONEY-MAKER (Cincinnati +4.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Bearcats as a home dog against the Knights. UCF is a good team, but I think they are a bit overrated right now. We just saw them lose on the road to Pitt a couple weeks ago and their best win of 2019 is a 45-27 victory against a struggling Stanford team. 

Bearcats only loss of 2019 is a 42-0 whooping on the road to Ohio State. After watching what the Buckeyes just did to Nebraska, that don't look all that bad. They absolutely dominated a good Marshall team last week 52-14 on the road. This is an outstanding defensive team under Luke Fickell. I think being Physical is the way to beat this UCF team, so it's a great matchup. Add in the atmosphere of a home game at Nippert Stadium in this kind of spot. Give me the Bearcats +4.5! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Temple -11) 

I get East Carolina has a winning record at 3-2 and are off an upset win at Old Dominion, but I still think they are really bad. Two of their three wins were against Gardner Webb and William & Mary.

I also think we can learn a lot from their two losses. They got annihilated by NC STate 34-6 in the season opener. They were outgained in that game 505 to 269. Since we have seen the Wolfpack lose 44-27 at West Virginia and 31-13 at FSU. Losing at Florida State by only 18 isn’t horrible, but only scoring 13-points against that Seminoles D is. They also got destroyed 42-10 by Navy, getting outgained 468 to 222.

As for the win over Old Dominion. I question if that wasn’t more of the Monarchs just not having anything left in the tank after a couple of grueling road games against Power 5 opponents in Virginia Tech and Virginia. ODU was only down 24-17 in the 4th quarter at Va Tech and had a 17-0 lead in a 28-17 loss to Virginia.

You also can’t ignore how this series has gone with Temple having won and covered all 5 meetings between the two inside the AAC. Each of the last 3 have been decided by 24 or more points.

Pirates are a miserable 13-40 ATS in their last 43 versus a team with a winning record. They are also 2-8 ATS last 10 off a SU win. Temple is 22-6 ATS last 28 conference games and 7-3 ATS last 10 on Thursday. Give me the Owls -11!

40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT BAILOUT ATS MASSACRE (UCLA +7) 

I'll take my chances here with Chip Kelly and UCLA building off last week's incredible 67-63 win at Washington State. That is the definition of the type of win that can completely flip the script for a program. Let's also not forget that the Bruins 1-3 start is 100% a result of a brutal schedule. 

They lost the opener at Cincinnati 24-14 and could have easily came out on top in that game. They had some costly turnovers on the road in Week 1. It happens. They had letdown at home against Sand Diego State and ran into a buzz saw in Oklahoma. To respond the way they did last week after getting kicked in the teeth to start that game says a lot about the character of the UCLA players. 

Arizona is nothing special. Khalil Tate has been one of the most overrated players in the country for years now. He's a great running back playing quarterback. I think having faced Jalen Hurts will pay off big for UCLA defense in preparing for this game. I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this outright. Give me the Bruins +7! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK (North Texas -7) 

I'll take my chances here with North Texas laying a touchdown at home to the Cougars. It’s one thing to lose one of your best players to injury. It’s another to have two of your top players decide to just quit on their teammates because things aren’t going as well as they had hoped. For senior quarterback D’Eriq King and senior wideout Keith Corbin to pass on the final 8 games because they started out 1-3, is just not right. They are abusing the new rule where you can redshirt if you play 4 or fewer games.

With a defense that is not very good, I don’t know how the Cougars stay competitive the rest of the way without King under center. King is everything to Houston’s offense. He’s thrown for 663 yards and 6 touchdowns and leads the team in rushing with 312 yards and 6 scores. You go from a guy who was getting Heisman consideration to a guy with no experience.

They got a PAR rating that they do, which is a points above replacement value for players. King had the 4th best mark in the country at 18 points above replacement.

I just don’t see Houston’s offense being able to keep pace here with a potent North Texas offense that is led by one of the better quarterbacks you probably haven’t heard of in Mason Fine. Fine should have no problem here guiding the Mean Green offense against a Houston defense that is giving up 300 yards/game and 9.3 yards/pass attempt on the season.

The other big thing is I don’t see North Texas treating this game any differently because King isn’t playing. Mean Green haven’t won a game against Houston since 1975. North Texas head coach Seth Litrell already has 9 wins over in-state rivals in the 3+ years he’s been with the program. I think the Mean Green win and win big. Give me North Texas -7!

40* OHIO ST/NEBRASKA BIG TEN ATS DESTROYER (Nebraska +17.5)

I'll take my chances with Nebraska to cover as a 3-score home dog to Ohio State. I just think that we are seeing an inflated number here with the Buckeyes coming off 3 straight covers that really weren’t close. They covered the spread by 27.5 against Cincinnati, by 23.5 against Indiana and by 32.5 against Miami (OH).

It’s not like we haven’t seen the Buckeyes slip up in a similar spot the past two years. In 2017 they went on the road to face Iowa as a 18-point favorite and lost outright 55-24. Last year they were a 12-point favorite at Purdue and lost 49-20.

Even though Nebraska hasn’t looked as good as anticipated, there’s no question that the atmosphere for this game is going to be electric. This is a potential program defining game for Scott Frost.

With that said, I 100% believe the sloppy play and near upset at Illinois last week was a direct result of this game being on deck. One thing to note is that while the game was decided by just a few points, Nebraska was hands down the better team. The Cornhuskers outgained the Fighting Illini 673 to 299 (+374) with a 32-14 edge in first downs.

I know they haven’t seen anything like the talent that the Buckeyes have on offense, but I think it’s worth noting how good the Nebraska defense has been against the run. Cornhuskers are only giving up 117 yards/game and a mere 3.1 yards/carry. Considering Ohio State is averaging 262 rushing yards/game, if they can slow down the ground game I think they got a chance.

Buckeyes are just 2-10 ATS going back to 1992 after 4 straight games where they put up 450 or more total yards. Nebraska is also 16-4 ATS since 1992 after scoring and allowing 30 or more points in their previous game.

Home underdogs who have scored 42 or more in 2 straight games are 59-26 (69%) ATS since 1992. Also home dogs of 14.5 or more off 2 straight wins with a winning percentage of 60% to 80% are 29-7 (81%) ATS when playing a team with a winning record. Give me Nebraska!

50* NCAAF PRIME TIME PLAY OF THE MONTH (S. Carolina -3) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with South Carolina laying only a field goal at home against the Wildcats. I was impressed with the Gamecocks in their loss to Alabama a couple weeks back. I did lose with them last week as a 9.5-point dog at Missouri. They ended up losing by 20, but that's because the Tigers got two non-offensive touchdowns. It was a 17-14 game early in the 3rd quarter. 

I think backup quarterback Ryan Hilinski might actually be better than starter Jake Bentley, who they lost for the year. Hilinski threw 324 yards and 2 scores against Alabama and it's not like it all came in garbage time. Crimson Tide only outgained SC 571-459.  They were down just 11 in the 2nd half. 

Kentucky was the surprise of the SEC last year, but they have lost a lot and are also down their starting QB (Terry Wilson). I'm not all that impressed with backup Sawyer Smith, who is only completing 50.6% of his attempts with a 4-4 TD-INT ratio. Wildcats need to be dominant on the ground just to score and we saw the Gamecocks defense hold Alabama's rushing attack to just 76 yards on 25 attempts. Give me South Carolina -3! 

40* NCAAF SITUATIONAL PUBLIC ATS SHOCKER (South Florida +8)

I'll take my chances here with USF getting more than a touchdown at home against the Mustangs. I was on SMU as a near double-digit dog in last week's outright win at TCU. Now it's time to fade. I don't know that TCU was as good as people thought, which is why I liked SMU. 

SMU has gone from a team no one knew about to a team people are talking about. I think the Mustangs could be feeling themselves a bit right now and no one wants anything to do with this Bulls team. I think we get a huge effort from USF coming off their bye as a home dog. Charlie Strong is 4-1 SU off a bye at South Florida. Give me the Bulls +8! 

40* VIRGINIA/N DAME BIG GAME ATS SLAUGHTER (Virginia +11.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Virginia as a double-digit dog against the Fighting Irish. I was on Notre Dame last week in their cover at Georgia. That's because 14-points was way too many for them to be catching. 

Now it's the Irish who are being ask to lay too big a number against a quality opponent. Bronco Mendenhall has the Cavaliers going in the right direction. THey have gone from 2 to 6 to 8 wins in his first 3 years and with 14 starters back, this is the best team they have had since he came to town. 

I know they have had to rally to win a bunch of their games, but I think the 16-point win at Pitt and victory at home against a much-improved FSU team are great wins. Has to be some letdown here with the Irish off that loss to Georgia. There's also a ton of added pressure on ND, as another loss will all but eliminate them from playoff consideration. Give me Virginia +11.5!