40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (UNC +10.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Tar Heels as a double-digit road dog against the Orange. North Carolina should have beat Virginia Tech last week. The Tar Heels led 16-7 midway thru the 3rd quarter and still had a 19-14 advantage late in the 4th, before giving up a TD with 19 seconds left to lose 22-19. UNC outgained a good Hokies team 522 to 375. I think they come into this game with a ton of confidence on offense and the Orange are a defense they can exploit. Syracuse is 96th in the country against the run and 69th agains the pass. It's not that I don't think the Orange are a bad team, but I think they are still overvalued from that 4-1 ATS start, which included that close call against Clemson. They followed it up with a loss to Pitt and the 4 wins are nothing to get excited about. They played Clemson close last year and followed it up by losing their final 5 games. They should be favored at home over UNC, but not by double-digits, as the Tar Heels could easily win this outright. Give me North Carolina +10.5! 

40* AIR FORCE/UNLV FRIDAY NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (Air Force -9.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Falcons laying less than double-digits against the Rebels. The matchup here heavily favors Air Force.

I also think we are getting a shorter number, due to this being a potential trap game for the Falcons off the big game against San Diego State and a home game against Boise State looming next week. Had they pulled off the win over the Aztecs I might by this being a flat spot, but with a 2-4 record, Air Force needs this game if they want a legit shot at becoming bowl eligible.

Offensively, these are two very similar teams in terms of how the majority of their yards are produced. Air Force is 13th in the country in rushing (248.3 ypg) and just 126th in passing (106.8 ypg). UNLV is 8th in the country in rushing (257.2 ypg) and 124th in passing (123.7 ypg). Neither team offers much in terms of passing, but Air Force has been the more effective of the two when throwing. The Falcons average 7.3 yards/pass attempt, where the Rebels only average 4.8 yards/pass attempt.

You have to think given the numbers, that the team who has the better success establishing the run will have the edge in this game. As far as which of these two teams is better at stopping the run, it’s not even close. Air Force is 8th in the nation, giving up just 101.2 rushing yards/game and are holding teams to 3.2 yards/carry. UNLV on the other hand is 104th in the country against the run, allowing 199 ypg and are giving up 5.2 ypc.  Note that Air Force dominated a run-heavy team in Navy, beating the Midshipmen 35-7 as a 2-point underdog.

I just think that due to the fact that both teams are sitting with a record of 2-4, we are seeing a much lower number than we should, as I think Air Force is without a doubt the superior team. The Falcons have 3 road losses against the likes of FAU, Utah State and San Diego State. UNLV’s only two wins are against UTEP and Prairie View and just a couple weeks ago lost at home to New Mexico by 36 points. I just don’t feel like it’s asking a lot for Air Force to win here by two touchdowns. Give me the Falcons -9.5! 

50* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Arizona St +3) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Sun Devils as a home dog. I just feel the value here is clearly with Arizona State, as Stanford has no business being a road favorite against the Sun Devils.

For me, I just don’t trust this Cardinal offense. With or without Bryce Love, Stanford has struggled to run the football. The Cardinal are 127th in the country in rushing at 85.7 ypg. In their last game against the Utes, they managed just 42 yards on 28 attempts. K.J. Costello threw for 381 yards, but had two interceptions and a lost fumble.

That struggling Stanford offense will be up against a talented Arizona State defense, that has not allowed a single team to score more than 28 points against them all season. A pretty impressive feat given they have played the likes of Michigan State, Washington, San Diego State and Colorado.

The only one of those that came at home was against the Spartans and they held them to just 13 points. Their run defense at home has been outstanding, as they are giving up just 2.9 yards/carry. They should be able to make Stanford one dimensional and the entire unit should feed off a rowdy home crowd under the lights.

The other key here is the Arizona State offense should be able to move the ball against a Stanford defense that has been torched in their last 3 games. The Cardinal gave up 31 points (should have been more) and 524 yards to Oregon, 38 points and 550 yards to Notre Dame and 40 points and 421 yards to Utah. During this stretch they have allowed 224 yards/game on the ground. Stanford is a mere 79th in the country in total defense and 108th in total offense. That’s not the numbers you expect to see from a road favorite in a game like this.

Arizona State is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss, 5-1 in their last 6 at home and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs a team with a winning record. They are also a dominant 18-2 ATS in their last 20 vs a team that can’t run the football (90 or less yards/game). Give me the Sun Devils +3!

40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT ATS SHOCKER (USC -7)

I'll take my chances here with USC at home against Colorado. It's just a matter of principal for me. When you have an unranked team laying a touchdown against a ranked opponent, you take the favorite. We played this exact scenario and won last week with Texas A&M hosting Kentucky. 

There's definitely a ton of talent at USC, but it shouldn't have come as a huge surprise they lost on the road against the likes of Stanford and Texas with the lack of experience they had on offense, especially at quarterback with true freshman J.T. Daniels starting. 

I think a lot of people wrote off this USC team after those losses, but I think they are only getting better. They got back on track with a win at home over a good Washington State team and Daniels shined with 241 yards and 3 scores. They then went on the road and beat Arizona 24-20, but that's a very misleading final, as the Trojans were up 24-0 in the 2nd half. 

This is a game USC has to have a legit shot at the Pac-12 South title and I think they expose this Colorado team. The Buffaloes are better than we expected, but let's not get carried away about a team that there best win is a 7-point win at home against Arizona State, where they trailed in the 4th quarter. 

They have also played just 1 true road game. That was at Nebraska and they trailed 28-20 in the 2nd half, were outgained 565 to 393 and barely won 33-28. Nebraska has since lost at home to Troy, by 46 to Michigan, by 14 to Purdue and by 17 to Wisconsin. 

I think Daniels and that offense are going to have a big day and a good USC defense will feed off the home crowd and slow down this overrated Buffaloes offense. Give me the Trojans -7! 

50* NCAAF 'BIG TEN' GAME OF THE MONTH (Michigan -9.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Wolverines winning by double-digits at home against the Badgers. This might seem like a big number, but given the spot and how these teams matchup, I think Michigan is going to make quite the statement in their first real big game since the opener against Notre Dame. 

I absolutely loves teams that have something to prove, who are playing at home in a prime time. The fans just take it to a different level when the game is played under the lights. I also think that while Wisconsin is a good team, they aren't quite as good as everyone thought. They were fortunate to win at Iowa and lost at home to a pretty average BYU team. 

What's even more concerning for me is how the defense just gave up 24 points and over 500 yards to Nebraska at home. The same Cornhuskers team that managed only 10 points and 132 yards at Michigan a couple weeks earlier. The injuries have really mounted up in the secondary for the Badgers and Nebraska's true freshman Adrian Martinez just threw for 384 yards and a 2-0 TD-INT ratio against them last week. 

I think that Michigan's defense is built to shutdown this Wisconsin offense and will be flying all over the field at home under the lights. Shea Patterson and the Wolverines offense are simply going to have the much easier time scoring. Eventually that Badgers defense is going to wear down and that's when this thing could get out of hand. Give me Michigan -9.5! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (California -6.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Golden Bears winning by at least a touchdown at home. This is the ideal spot to jump on Cal, who is desperate for a win after losing two straight following their 3-0 start. On the flip side of this, I believe this is also a great time to fade UCLA. This is a huge letdown spot for the Bruins, who gave everything they had in their upset bid of Washington last week.

This team just doesn’t have the talent or experience to come off a loss like that and play well on the road, especially in what’s going to be a hostile environment with this game being a prime time matchup under the lights. The even bigger key here is we know we are going to get a max effort from Cal in this one. Something I don’t think UCLA got from the Huskies last week. It felt like Washington was content just going through the motions after building up that 17-point lead at the half.

I’ve said this numerous times when talking about UCLA, it’s only a matter of time before Kelly has that program competing for conference titles. It’s just not going to happen this year and while the team should keep improving, they simply got a long way to go before they are going to win games on the road against the team the caliber of Cal.

There’s just not a lot to like about the Bruins on either side of the football. UCLA is 101st in rushing (138.6 ypg) and 94th against the run (185.8 ypg). They are also 101st in passing (195.4 ypg) and 95th against the pass (243.8 ypg). They have the 120th ranked offense in the country and the 102nd ranked defense.

Prior to the closer than expected final against Washington, they had lost by 22 on the road to Colorado, 24 at home to Fresno State and 28 at Oklahoma. Note that awful showing at home against the Bulldogs came the following week after their big game against the Sooners, so this wouldn’t be the first time they didn’t show up after playing a Top 10 opponent.

I also feel like we are getting a bit of a discount on Cal due to the fact that they just lost outright as a favorite against a Arizona team a lot of people are down on. The thing is, the Wildcats weren’t the better team, the Golden Bears simply beat themselves. Arizona’s only points in the final 3 quarters came via interception returns for touchdowns. Cal outgained the Wildcats 476 to 265 and had a 25 to 13 edge in first downs. I know turnovers have been a problem for the Bears in 2018, but the Bruins defense has just 5 takeaways in 5 games and 3 of those came against non-Power 5 opponents.

I look for Cal to easily score 30+ points in this game and that should be more than enough to get the cover, as UCLA is averaging just 18.4 ppg and haven’t scored more than 24 in a single game all season. Give me the Golden Bears -6.5! 

50* NCAAF 'ACC' GAME OF THE YEAR (Boston College -13) 

I'll take my chances here with the Eagles winning by at least 2 touchdowns against Louisville. Until the books start adjusting the Cardinals to the product they are putting on the field, I'll continue to keep looking to fade this team. 

I think Petrino has overstayed his welcome at Louisville and we are seeing just how much Lamar Jackson meant to that team the past couple of years. This team didn't come to play in a prime time weekday game at home, where most teams are chomping at the bit. They gave up 66 points and 542 rushing yards to a pretty mediocre Georgia Tech team. 

I just don't see them wanting any part of what is going to be a pissed off Boston College team. The Eagles have lost 2 of their last 3 following a perfect 3-0 start. The most recent being a 28-23 loss at NC State. Regardless if A.J. Dillion plays, I expect the Eagles to have their way in this one. 

Two years ago Louisville went into BC and laid it on the Eagles 52-7. Don't think for a second that Addazio has forgot about that game. I fully expect BC to pour it on if it gets out of hand and I think they win here by 20+ rather easy. Give me the Eagles -13! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS MASSACRE (Duke +3) 

I'll take my chances here with the Blue Devils getting points against the Yellow Jackets. I think Duke is the far superior team and have some massive advantages in this matchup. 

The Blue Devils were 4-0 with double-digit wins on the road against Northwestern and Baylor. They also had their way with a good Army team (won 34-14). The thing is, last time out they lost by 17 as a 7-point favorite against Va Tech. That loss really hurt the perception of this team. 

On the flip side, Georgia Tech just won 66-31 on the road against Louisville as a 5.5-point favorite. A game a lot of people watched, given it was played on a weekday. The game prior to that they won and covered 63-17 against Bowling Green. I think those two results have them way overvalued. Bowiling Green is awful and Louisville threw in the towel after that crushing loss to FSU. Georgia Tech has already lost twice as a small favorite this season and it's going to happen again. 

I love anytime we get Duke in the role of the dog under head coach David Cutcliffe, especially on the road. Blue Devils are 12-4 in their last 16 as a dog of 7 or less on the road and a perfect 6-0 when they are a dog of 3 points or less. 

I mentioned the dominant win over Army, where the held the Midshipmen to 14 points 168 rushing yards. Army runs basically the same triple-option offense as Georgia Tech and if you can stop the run against the Yellow Jackets, you can completely shut them down. Clemson held them to 146 rushing yards and they had just 7 points and less than 100 yards of offense with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Give me the Blue Devils +3! 

40* NCAAF SITUATIONAL ATS KNOCKOUT (Auburn -14.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Auburn getting things figured out at home against the Volunteers and I think we are getting a great price to back them. This is a big bounce-back game for the Tigers off that ugly loss at Mississippi State and this Tennessee is definitely one to let out some frustration against. 

The Vols only two wins are against E Tennessee State and UTEP. They lost by 26 to West Virginia, 26 to Florida and 26 to Georgia. The last two were against the Gators and Bulldogs and I just don't see this team having any fight left in them for this game. Coming off two division games and a game at home against No. 1 Alabama (Jeremy Pruitt vs Nick Saban), this could get ugly in a hurry. 

Auburn is going to want to show out offensively after scoring just 9-points against Mississippi State and Tennessee won't be able to stop them. On top of that, with how good the Tigers are defensively and how bad the Vols are offensively, Auburn is going to get to work with a lot of short fields and I would expect a defense that has forced 12 takeaways in 6 games will get at least a couple against a Tennessee offense that has turned it over 9 times in their last 3. 

Note that while the Vols did cover the 31 at Georgia last week, they are a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a game where they covered. Give me the Tigers -14.5! 

40* FRIDAY LATE NIGHT PAC-12 ATS MASSACRE (Utah -13.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Utes laying less than two touchdowns at home. I think a lot of people are going to be tempted to take Arizona at this price, as they are coming off that big upset of Cal at home and the week before lost by just 4 at home to USC. The thing is, those are two very misleading results.

Let’s start with the game against the Trojans. The final score makes it appear like Arizona was competitive, but in reality USC just let their foot off the gas. The Trojans were in complete control with a 24-0 lead in the 2nd half and outgained the Wildcats 450 to 330. As for the Cal game, the Golden Bears gave that game away. Cal had a 476 to 265 edge in total yards, but turned it over 4 times, leading to 17 of Arizona’s 24 points, with 14 points coming via interception returns for touchdowns.

I’m willing to take my chances here that Arizona isn’t as fortunate against the Utes. Utah is a team that I think is well deserving of being this big of a favorite. Their only two losses are a 21-7 defeat at home to Washington and a 24-28 loss at Washington State, where the Cougars only score in the 2nd half was a 89-yard TD strike late to give them the lead.

Having already lost two conference games, there’s no room for error for Utah if they want a chance to win the Pac-12 South, so there will be no looking past the Wildcats. On top of that, Rice-Eccles Stadium is one of the more difficult places for opposing teams to play, especially when it’s a prime time game.

I also love the matchup for Utah. Arizona quarterback Khalil Tate is a much bigger threat running than he is passing and teams have really figured him out this season. For the Wildcats offense to be successful, they need to be able to run the football. That’s where this becomes a problem for Arizona, as Utah comes in ranked 3rd in the country against the run, giving up just 75.4 ypg. They are holding teams to just 2.4 yards/carry and if they can take away the run, Tate is going to make mistakes in the passing game.

I also think this Utah offense is a lot better than people realize, as their offensive numbers are a bit skewed with all the strong defenses they have played. Arizona is 106th in the nation against the run (197.3 ypg) and 76th against the pass (231 ypg).

This Wildcats team is also not one you want anything to do with on the road. Arizona is a mere 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 on the road after the first month of the season. They are also just 2-8ATS in their last 10 after covering the spread in their previous game and 5-14 ATS in their last 19 as an underdog. Give me the Utes -13.5!

40* NCAAF TUESDAY NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (Appalachian St -10) 

I'll take my chances here with Appalachian State covering as a big double-digit road favorite. When the Mountaineers nearly pulled off the upset against Penn State in Week 1 (missed a field goal to win it at the end of regulation), I credited the close game more to Penn State just not being as good this year without Saquon Barkley. More than a month down the road, we know that the Nittany Lions are one of the most talent teams in the country, which makes that performance all the more impressive, especially given it was on the road.

Since that near upset the Red Wolves have beat Charlotte 45-9, Gardner Webb 72-7 and South Alabama 52-7. I know that’s a bunch of cupcakes, but the key thing is they absolutely dominated all 3 of those teams. Arkansas State has a couple of nice wins over Tulsa and UNLV, but in their big step-up game they lost by 50 points to Alabama.

Not only do I think Appalachian State is the better team, but I think the matchup here is heavily in their favor, as I think they will dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

There were concerns about the Red Wolves run defense coming into this season, as they only had one starter back on the defensive line and it’s been even worse than expected. Arkansas State ranks 124th in the country, giving up 244.4 ypg. In their conference opener against Georgia Southern, they let the Eagles rush for 348 yards on 49 attempts (7.1 yards/carry). Appalachian State has one of the best offensive lines in the Sun Belt this year and are 9th in the country in rushing at 269.5 ypg.

As for the Mountaineers defense, they are giving up just 104.3 rushing yards/game (12th) and 172.0 passing yards/game (14th). They are also allowing a mere 4.0 yards/play. The final score against Penn State makes you think it was a shootout, but the Nittany Lions had just 24 points with just under 12 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. They held Trace McSorley to just 229 yards passing and Miles Sanders to a mere 91 yards on 19 carries.

This defense is the real deal and while the Red Wolves have a legit quarterback in Justice Hansen, I don’t see Arkansas State being able to keep pace offensively to keep this one competitive. Give me the Mountaineers -10.

50* NCAAF SEC 'ATS' GAME OF THE YEAR (Texas A&M -5.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Aggies as a mere 5.5-point home favorite against the Wildcats. It doesn’t happen often, but whenever you have a team ranked in the Top 25 getting points against an unranked opponent, it’s usually a pretty good sign to fade the team that’s ranked. I couldn’t agree more, as I not only think Texas A&M wins this matchup, but I think they do so in blowout fashion.

The thing you have to keep in mind with the rankings this early in the season, is the overall record is really what the voters dial in on. So while I think it’s pretty clear that Texas A&M is one of best 25 teams in the country, their 3-2 record has them on the outside looking in for the time being.

The Aggies only two losses this season have come against arguably two of the top programs in the country in Clemson and Alabama. While they lost both of those contests, they were there with Clemson in a 28-26 defeat at home and while they lost by 18-points to Alabama, that’s the best any team has looked to this point against the Crimson Tide, who are the overwhelming favorites to win it all.

I’m also not the least bit concerned about their lackluster showing last week in a 7-point win over a bad Arkansas team as a 19-point favorite. That was a brutal spot for Texas A&M off that emotional loss to Alabama.

I expect a much more dialed in and focused Aggies squad, who are going to want to make a statement and get that first win over a Top 25 opponent under new head coach Jimbo Fisher. You also have to factor in just how difficult a place Kyle Field is to get a win, especially in a prime time night game.

No disrespect to Kentucky, who no one envisioned being 5-0 to start the season, but I just think the Wildcats are a bit overvalued right now. They have certainly benefited from playing 4 of their first 5 games at home and while the road win over Florida was impressive, I think it will be tough for them to keep this one close.

That’s because this is a really tough matchup for the Wildcats. Kentucky’s offense is built around star running back Benny Snell, as they come in ranked a mere 118th in the country in passing at  just 153 ypg. As good as Snell is, and he’s really good, Texas A&M has the defense to contain him.

The Aggies rank 3rd in the country against the run, giving up just 80.6 ypg. Keep in mind they held Clemson to just 115 yard rushing and only gave up 109 rushing yards on the road to Alabama, who currently has the 29th ranked rushing attack in the nation at 217.4 ypg. Texas A&M also has one of the best defensive coordinators in the game today in Mike Elko and you can bet his entire gameplan will be to not let Snell beat them.

I just don’t think Kentucky can keep this within a touchdown without Snell being a major factor and this Wildcats offense is certainly not one that is built to play from behind. Starting quarterback Terry Wilson hasn’t thrown for more than 165 yards in a single game this season and has just two touchdown passes to five interceptions. Give me the Aggies -5.5! 

40* BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS MASSACRE (Indiana +27)

I'll take my chances here with Indiana as a near 4-touchdown dog agains the Buckeyes on Saturday. It's amazing how the public can't help but betting the best teams, no matter the circumstances. 

I just don't think we are going to see the best Ohio State has to offer coming off that thrilling 27-26 win over Penn State, where they had to rally from 12 down in the final 8 minutes of regulation. Expecting this team to bring the same intensity they had against the Nittany Lions against a team like Indiana is crazy. It's not going to happen. On the flip side of this, this game means everything to the Hoosiers, as these middle of the pack teams live for these chances to upset a top team. 

I know the Buckeyes have a ton of talent on offense, but they struggled big time against Penn State. They only finished the game with 389 total yards and 174 of those came on there two 4th quarter scoring drives. Indiana's defense isn't on Penn State's level, but it's a solid unit. They are holding teams almost 7-points under their season average. As for the offense, that's where the less than 100% focused Ohio State team comes into play. 

We saw Indiana hang with the Buckeyes last year in a very misleading 49-21 loss, as they had a 21-20 lead in the 3rd quarter. All we need is for something like 45-20 to get a cover. Give me the Hoosiers +27! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT UNDERDOG KNOCKOUT (Texas +7.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Longhorns covering the spread. This just feels like the same old story we have seen the last 5 years in this series. Oklahoma has been over a touchdown favorite in this matchup each of the last 5 years, but have not covered a single spread during this stretch and have lost outright twice. All 3 wins for the Sooners have come by exactly 5-points. 

Not only do I think Texas keeps this close enough to cover, but I like the Longhorns to win this game outright. The only slip up on the schedule for Texas is that opening week loss to Maryland on a neutral field. A game they very easily could have won as they led 29-24 going into the 4th quarter and had 3 straight possessions end with a turnover in the 4th quarter with Texas trailing by just 5-points.

The less than impressive win over a Kansas State team that looks to be down this year doesn’t concern me the least. Much like they did against Tulsa in the week leading up to their big showdown with USC, they simply took their foot off the gas. It certainly didn’t impact their performance against the Trojans, who they rolled 37-14. Texas also followed up that blowout win over USC with an impressive 31-16 win over a very good TCU team the next week.

As for Oklahoma, I’m just not sold on the Sooners being as good as everyone thinks. I know Kyler Murray has stepped in and played extremely well in place of Heisman winner Baker Mayfield, but a lot of that has to do with a very easy schedule to start the year. The toughest opponent to this point for Oklahoma has been Iowa State and they only beat them by 10 with the Cyclones playing the game without their starting quarterback.

I believe the difference in this one is going to be the Texas defense, which has been lights out since giving up 34 to the Terps in the opener. They haven’t allowed more than 21 points in any game since. They come in giving up 19.8 ppg against teams that on average are scoring 26.7, which means they are holding teams to roughly a touchdown under their season average. They are only giving up 115 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry against the run and while they are allowing 218 ypg through the air, opponents are only completing 54.9% of their pass attempts against them.

Adding to this, Texas is a dominant 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs high-scoring teams like Oklahoma, who are averaging 37 or more points/game. You also can’t ignore how good Tom Herman coached teams have been in the role of the underdog. Herman is 11-1 ATS as a head coach in games as an underdog and I fully expect him to improve to 12-1 after Saturday. Give me the Longhorns +7.5! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD LINE MISTAKE (South Carolina +1.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Gamecocks as a home dog. This South Carolina is getting no respect at all right now, as there is no reason for Missouri to be favored on the road. The Gamecocks two losses are against Georgia at home and on the road against Kentucky. They won 37-14 at Vanderbilt in a similar spot, as they were only a 1.5-point road favorite against a much inferior opponent. 

Every year Missouri looks great against bad teams and struggles against the top half of the SEC. Their best win is a 3-point victory at Purdue, who is down this year. They had their chance last week against Georgia at home and lost 43-29. That's a tough game to bounce back from, especially with a game against No. 1 Alabama looming on deck. 

I think we get a pissed off South Carolina team and with that defense feeding off the home crowd, I look for Drew Lock and that Missouri offense to struggle to keep pace with what their defense gives up. Keep in mind they given up more than 1,100 yards in their last two games. Give me the Gamecocks +1.5! 

50* NCAAF MAC 'ATS' GAME OF THE MONTH (Buffalo -7.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Buffalo laying just 7.5-points on the road against the Chippewas. I love this spot for the Bulls, who are going to be itching to take the field after getting a reality check last week in a 42-13 loss at home to Army. 

That triple-option is brutal to prepare for and I think this Bulls team was feeling themselves a little too much after their 4-0 start, which included road wins over Temple and Rutgers, as well as a home win over a good Eastern Michigan team. 

Central Michigan has covered 3 straight and 4 of 5 overall, which I think has this line a lot lower than it should be. This is not a good Chippewas team and that's pretty evident by the fact that they lost by 24 at home to Kansas. The 15-point loss to Kentucky looks great on paper, but that game was a much bigger mismatch than the final score would lead on. Same thing with their 11-point loss last week to Michigan State, as they were trailing 31-3 going into the 4th quarter. 

I think given the talent that Buffalo has offensively and how much Central Michigan has had just picking up first downs (averaging 256 ypg and only 4.0 yards/play), there's no way the Bulls don't win here by double-digits. Give me Buffalo -7.5! 

50* FRIDAY LATE NIGHT SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Utah St +3) 

I'll take my chances here with the Aggies as a small road dog against the Cougars, as I think they win this game outright. Utah State was one of the most underrated teams in the country coming into the 2018 season and it’s shown by the fact that they are a perfect 4-0 ATS to start the season.

While BYU is also a much-improved team from last year, I think they are still getting a little too much love from that big upset win at Wisconsin. A victory they were very fortunate to get, as the Badgers outgained them by 83 yards and had a 20-14 edge in first downs. More than anything, I think the Cougars caught Wisconsin by surprise and that certainly seems to be the case after how poorly they played against Washington.

I know the schedule has been extremely difficult early on with 4 of their first 5 games coming against Power 5 opponents, but it’s hard to ignore the lackluster offensive numbers for BYU. The Cougars are 103rd in the country in rushing (132 ypg) and 116th in passing (163 ypg). Things could get even tougher on the offense if starting running back Squally Canada can’t go. He leads the team with 335 rushing yards and has accounted for 5 of the 12 touchdowns the BYU offense has managed to score this season.

Utah State has an emerging star at quarterback in Jordan Love, who you might recall torched a very good Michigan State defense for 319 yards earlier this season. This Aggies offense can also attack you on the ground, as they are averaging 5.5 yards/carry and that’s with them only managing 25 yards on 25 attempts in the opener against the Spartans.

The other big thing that will get overlooked is the advantage Utah State has in terms of scheduling. The Aggies will have had essentially two weeks to prepare for this game coming off a bye, while BYU has just 5 days to prepare for this contest and are coming off a very physical game against an elite Washington team.

Adding to this is the fact that Aggies head coach Matt Wells has gone an impressive 8-2 off a bye as the head coach at Utah State.  BYU on the other hand is a mere 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played on Friday night and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a game where they had less than 275 yards of total offense. Give me Utah State +3!

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Troy -15) 

I'll take my chances here with Troy cashing in a win as a big home favorite. The Trojans have clearly been undervalued by the books following that poor showing against Boise State in Week 1, as they covered 4 straight since that loss. I just don’t feel the number here has been set high enough and a bit surprised to see it drop like it has. It almost feels like people are giving Georgia State way too much respect off that blowout win as a dog in their last game against ULM.

I know the Panthers put up 46 points in that win over the Warhawks, but this is simply not a good offensive team. That was more of a result of just how bad ULM is defensively. Even after that offensive outburst, Georgia State is still ranked a mere 102nd in the country in total offense at just 361.2 ypg.

They are going to find it a lot harder to move the ball against a fast improving Troy defense, that has allowed just 18.5 ppg since giving up 56 in the opener against Boise State. Keep in mind last year the Trojans only allowed 6 points and 307 total yards to the Panthers.

I just don’t see Georgia State being able to score enough to keep this one close. Troy comes in averaging 41.3 ppg and 441 ypg at home. Expect more of the same against an awful Georgia State defense the is allowing 50.0 ppg and 610 ypg on the road. Adding to this, the Panthers are nearly giving up a first down every time the opponent runs a play on the road, as they are allowing 9.2 yards/play away from home.

The other big thing that can’t get overlooked here is how difficult is for the road team to play well in these weekday games on short rest. I believe it’s that much harder when you have a bad team like Georgia State, who simply doesn’t have a lot of talent to work with.

This is also a very young Panthers team that only returned 11 starters and has a true freshman at quarterback, so it’s really asking a lot for this team to keep this within 20 points against a good Troy team that is going to show up in a rare nationally televised game.

It’s also worth noting that Troy is a perfect 6-0 ATS after a game in which they scored 42 or more points, while Georgia State is a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 after accumulating 450 or more total yards in their last game and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Give me the Trojans -15! 

50* NCAAF LATE NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH (Cal +2) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Cal as a home dog against the Ducks. I really like this Oregon team and took the unfortunate loss last week in their game against Stanford, but this is not the spot to back the Ducks. I just have a really hard time seeing Oregon bouncing back from that crushing loss to the Cardinal.

The Ducks had a complete meltdown in the 2nd half. They got the ball first and had 1st and 10 on the Stanford 22 on the opening drive of the 3rd quarter. They lost 13-yards on the next 3 plays and had to punt. After the Cardinal went 3-and-out, Oregon had 1st and goal at the 1, only to fumble a few plays later and watch Stanford returned it 80 yards for a score.

After the Cardinal pulled within 3, the Ducks scored with 4:39 left in the 4th to take a 31-21 lead. They were still up 31-28 with the ball and just 51 seconds on the clock (Stanford had just one time-out left). Oregon inexplicably fumbled the ball on 2nd down and Stanford went 46 yards to kick a field goal to send the game into OT.

There’s not many worse ways to lose than that. Not only do they have to deal with emotionally overcoming that loss, but they have to travel to one of the more difficult places to play in the Pac-12, which is only magnified with this being a prime-time showdown under the lights.

You also have to factor in the huge motivational angle with Cal, who not only wants to continue their perfect start to the season, but is out for revenge. Plus, the Golden Bears have a massive edge in rest and preparation coming off a bye week. All of this is a perfect recipe for Cal to not only win this game outright, but potentially win here going away. Give me the Golden Bears +2.

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS SLAUGHTER (Mississippi St -7) 

I'll take my chances here with Mississippi State laying just a touchdown at home against Florida. The Bulldogs come in off a shocking 28-7 loss at Kentucky as a 10-point favorite, while the Gators are off a 47-21 win at Tennessee as a mere 4.5-point favorite. This is one of my favorite spots in terms of value, as we are getting a very average Florida team overvalued off their big cover and a really good Mississippi State team undervalued after laying an egg in their last game. 

Kentucky is clearly better than people thought, but the Bulldogs didn't play anywhere close to their potential in that contest. I think a lot of that has to do with them looking past the Wildcats to this game, as this one has a little extra meaning to it with former Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen now at Florida. Keep in mind Mullen wasn't fired, he left the team and the players are going to want to show him he made a mistake. 

More than anything I just think there's a massive gap here in talent and while Florida did win on the road at Tennessee, this is their first real big road test and I think this thing is going to get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Bulldogs -7! 

50* NCAAF POWER 5 GAME OF THE MONTH (Utah -1.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Utes as a short road favorite. I think this is the perfect spot to jump on the Utes for a lot of reasons. The biggest being that Utah is coming off a bye. The Utes have gone an impressive 20-6 SU and 17-8-1 ATS when coming off a bye under head coach Kyle Whittingham. 

Not only has Utah been great when they get an extra week to prepare for their opponent, but they have been great in the role of the road dog. The Utes are 10-2 ATS over the last 4 seasons as a road underdog. They are also 17-4 in their last 21 road games against a team with a winning home record.

On top of all that, I think this is an ideal bounce back spot for Utah off that loss to Washington and no question this team is going to be out for revenge from last year’s loss at home to the Cougars. As for Washington State, I think they will have a tough time here rebounding from that crushing loss to USC last week. I also don’t think this Cougars team is as good as their 3-1 record would lead you to believe.

I know the offense has looked great to this point, but things are about to get a heck of a lot harder for the Cougars against what I think is an elite Utah defense. The Utes have allowed just 4 touchdowns in 3 games and two of those came with the opposing team getting the ball on their side of the field.

Washington State’s offense is once again a one-dimensional passing attack and that plays right into the strength of this Utah defense. The Utes are No. 1 in the country against the pass, giving up just 93.0 yards/game. Sure that’s aided a bit by their schedule, but they held Washington’s Jake Browning to just 155 yards.

I know Utah’s offense hasn’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that they have played a really good defense in Northern Illinois and an elite defense in Washington. I think this will be a breakout game for the Utes offensively, as I’m just not all that impressed with Washington State’s defense. I just don’t think it’s asking a lot for Utah to win here by a field goal and I wouldn’t be shocked at all if this turned into a blowout. Give me the Utes -1.5.

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Nebraska +3.5)

I'll take my chances here with Nebraska as a 3.5-point home dog. The Cornhuskers couldn’t look any worse to start the season and no one is going to want anything to do with betting this team as a small home dog, especially after how bad they looked against Michigan and how great Purdue played in their win over Boston College.

Much like it was for the Boilermakers last week at home against the Eagles, this is a make or break point of the season for the Cornhuskers after an 0-3 start. Not to mention, no team in the country enjoys getting embarrassed the way that Nebraska did against Michigan. I expect the Cornhuskers to put everything they have into this week of practice and to lay it all on the line in front of their home fans on Saturday.

While this is a big time bounce back spot for Nebraska, this a tough spot for the Boilermakers. Purdue just laid it all on the line in their game against BC and given how bad the Cornhuskers have looked, it would be very easy for the Boilermakers to not take this team seriously.

I know some of it is bad luck, but you also can’t ignore the 0-3 start for Purdue. I also have a hard time trusting this Boilermakers defense on the road. I know they looked great last week at home against the Eagles, but I think BC may have came into that game a little over-confident after their 3-0 start. Keep in mind this is a Purdue defense that only returned 4 starters from last year and typically inexperienced defenses struggle on the road and this is the Boilermakers’ first game away from home this season.

Another thing you have to keep in mind with Nebraska’s 0-3 start is they have played a pretty tough schedule to this point with their 3 games against Colorado, Troy and Michigan. While they are only averaging 19 ppg, their opponents are only giving up 19.9 ppg. Same thing with the defense. The Cornhuskers are giving up 37.7 ppg, but that’s against teams that on average are scoring 39.1 ppg.

I just think given the spot and just how much Nebraska needs this game, the value is with the home team, as there is no way the Cornhuskers would have been a dog if you set this line before the season started. Give me Nebraska +3.5!

40* NCAAF UNDERDOG ATS MASSACRE (Pittsburgh +13.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Pittsburgh as a double-digit road dog against the Knights. I get the hype around this UCF team, especially after their 3-0 start, but they got no business being this big of a favorite against a decent Power 5 team. This is not the same caliber a Knights team as the one that went undefeated last year. 

Sure they have looked great to start out 2018, but they haven't played anybody. Their 3 wins are around UConn, who is downright awful, FCS foe South Carolina State and FAU, who they beat by 20, but it was a lot closer than the final score would indicate. Keep in mind they were a 14-point home favorite against FAU and are laying the same number against a Pitt team that is better than people think. 

No way I'm going to pass up with taking the points on the road, but I think there's a decent chance here that Pitt wins this game outright. This Pitt defense is without question the best defense UCF will have faced this season and they are going to come in hungry off a loss at UNC last time out. Note that while UCF is averaging 50 ppg, it's come against teams that on average give up 54.2 ppg. Same thing with the defensive numbers, as their opponents are only averaging 20.4 ppg. Give me the Panthers +13.5! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS SHOCKER (Texas Tech +4) 

I'll take my chances with the Red Raiders as a home dog. Texas Tech has showed us a lot the last two weeks in their wins over two quality opponents in Oklahoma State and Houston. I know they lost their opener to Ole Miss, but keep in mind starting quarterback McLane Carter was knocked out of the game with an injury in the 1st quarter.

The injury to Carter may have cost them that game against the Rebels, but it might have been a blessing at the same time. It opened the door for true freshman quarterback Alan Bowman, who has looked every bit the part of the next great Texas Tech quarterback. Bowman absolutely torched a decent Houston defense for 605 yards and 5 touchdowns two weeks ago and backed that up with 397 yards and 2 scores on the road against Oklahoma State.

I know the Texas Tech defense has some holes, but holding Oklahoma State to just 17 points is a very promising sign. If they get just a few more stops a game than they have in the past, it’s going to be extremely hard for teams to keep pace with that Red Raiders’ offense. Keep in mind that this was expected to be one of the best defenses Tech has fielded in quite some time, as they had 10 starters back from a unit that made big strides and was T-6th in the country with 29 takeaways.

West Virginia has the dynamic 1-2 punch of quarterback Will Grier and wide out David Sills, but the book is still out on this Mountaineers team. The win over Tennessee doesn’t look near as good after the Vols got routed at home by Florida this past Saturday. There’s also nothing to be excited about with their win over Kansas State, who simply isn’t that great this year.

Texas Tech is without a doubt the more battle-tested team and you also have to factor in this being the first true road game of the season for West Virginia and Jones AT&T Stadium is one of the more difficult places to play, especially when the fan base is excited about their team, which is definitely the case right now.

I also like the revenge angle here for Texas Tech and the fact that they are a home dog. That all but eliminates any possibility of the Red Raiders not being 100% locked in for this game. They also have a bye week on deck, so there’s literally no excuse for them to not lay it all on the line. Give me Texas Tech +4!

40* UCLA/COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (UCLA +10) 

I'll take my chances here with UCLA to keep this within the number against the Buffaloes. It's been a difficult start to the season for the Bruins, who are 0-3 under new head coach Chip Kelly. No one wants anything to do with UCLA right now, but I like them in this spot. The Bruins aren't as bad as people think, as they have played about a brutal non-conference schedule so far with their first 3 against Cincinnati, Oklahoma and Fresno State, who are a combined 10-1. Colorado is 3-0, but have beat the likes of Colorado St, Nebraska and New Hampshire. They were also very fortunate to beat the Cornhuskers, as Nebraska had a 565 to 395 edge in total yards. It's also worth noting both teams are off a bye. Colorado head coach Mike MacIntyre is 1-5 SU off a bye with the Buffaloes and 1-8 SU overall as a head coach. Kelly went 8-2 off a bye in his days with Oregon and I wouldn't be shocked if the Bruins got their first win of 2018. Give me UCLA +10! 

40* UNC/MIAMI NCAAF ATS KNOCKOUT (Miami -17.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hurricanes covering the big number at home. A lot of people jumped off the Miami bandwagon after that ugly 33-17 loss to LSU in Week 1 and I think a lot of those same people will be quick to grab the points with a Tar Heels team that is coming off a solid win over Pitt. Not to mention UNC is getting 7 players back from suspension. Getting guys back is great, but most of those players returning won’t impact this game. 

It turns out that LSU is way better than anyone anticipated and you have to wonder if Miami didn’t go into that opener a little over-confident against a team they thought they would handle. The thing to keep in mind is that Miami came into this season thinking playoffs and with that loss they can’t afford to overlook another opponent. I certainly don’t see them looking past the Tar Heels given how tough UNC has played them of late. Not to mention this being their home opener and the excitement and energy that comes with playing at home in a nationally televised game. This is Miami’s shot to make a statement and get back some of the respect they lost in the defeat to LSU.

I know we don’t know for sure, but I would be shocked if Perry wasn’t the starter for this game. It’s not like he came in and just played a series to get some reps. He replaced Rosier for good in that game and with the offense was clearly better with him on the field. Anytime there’s a big change like this at a key position, especially quarterback, it can light a fire under the entire team and I expect Hard Rock Stadium to be electric.

You also have to look at the defense of North Carolina. The Tar Heels just aren’t very good on that side of the ball. They held Cal to just 24 points, but allowed 41 points and over 500 yards to East Carolina and another 35 points and 400+ yards to Pitt. Miami just has too much talent and speed for UNC to keep them from scoring early and often.

The key here for me, is I don’t see the Tar Heels offense being able to keep pace with what their defense allows. I know they looked good on that side of the ball last week, but this is still the same team that scored a mere 17 points at Cal and 19 at East Carolina. Miami’s defense loves to show off and they are going to be chomping at the bit for this prime time matchup.

Note that when the Hurricanes score a minimum of 28 points they have gone 14-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons and won these contests by an average of 28.3 ppg (43.4-15.1). Give me Miami -17.5!

40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS MASSACRE (Iowa +3.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Hawkeyes as a home dog. Kinnick Stadium is one of the most difficult places to play in college football and there’s something special about this place at night. Two years ago the Hawkeyes came out of nowhere to stun No. 2 ranked Michigan 14-13 as a 21-point underdog in a home night game. Last year they nearly upset No. 4 Penn State, losing 21-19 with the Nittany Lions scoring a touchdown on the final play of the game. 

I also think after watching BYU go into Madison and beat the Badgers, the talent gap between these two teams might not be as big as originally thought. BYU’s defense more than held their own against that Wisconsin offense and the Cougars rushed for 191 yards, while averaging 6.8 yards/carry. BYU is definitely improved this year, but I would argue Iowa is every bit as good as the Cougars and likely a little stronger. 

There’s going to be plenty of people calling out Iowa and their 3-0 start because of what looks like a soft schedule, but Northern Illinois is a team that was picked to win the MAC by a lot of people and nearly upset Utah the very next week. Iowa State on the other hand only lost by 10 at home to Oklahoma and they were without their starting quarterback. Even Northern Iowa is no pushover, as they came into the year ranked in the Top 15 of FCS programs. 

I think that with the electric atmosphere and Wisconsin being a team that wants to run to set up the pass, this Hawkeyes defense can really make things difficult on this Badgers offense. Iowa comes into this game ranked 2nd in the country, allowing just 42 yards/game rushing and out of the 24 points they have allowed, 21 have come in garbage time in the 4th quarter. They held the same ISU offense that put up nearly 450 yards on the Sooners to just 188 total yards and 11 first downs. 

The Iowa offense hasn’t been all that impressive, but a lot of that had to do with Stanley not playing up to his potential in the first two games. He looked like a different guy against UNI. I know lighting up a FCS defense is nothing to get overly excited about, but I think it was huge for his confidence going into this game. If he shows up and can keep Wisconsin from just loading the box, Iowa could runaway with this thing. Keep in mind BYU had just 120 passing yards in their win over the Badgers last week, so it’s not like he has to play well for the Hawkeyes to win this game. Give me Iowa +3.5.

50* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR (Oregon +3)

I'll gladly take my chances here with Oregon getting points at home against Stanford. I think the books had this one listed right when they opened it, as I just don’t think the Cardinal should be favored on the road. This Oregon team is no joke and I just think people have forgot about how big an advantage is to play at Autzen Stadium in a prime time night game like this.

I just don’t know how you trust this Stanford team on the road given the struggles they have had offensively. I know Bryce Love didn’t play last week, but he wasn’t anything special in the first two games. Thru 3 games the Cardinal have the 112th ranked rushing attack (115.3 ypg) are just 63rd in passing (243 ypg). That 14-3 win over USC doesn’t look nearly as good after the Trojans were embarrassed 37-14 at Texas this past weekend.

I know the defense has been great, but they played one of the most traditional offenses in the country in San Diego State, a USC team that lost a ton and was starting a true freshman at quarterback and a FCS foe in UC Davis. Note that Texas, who gave up 34 points and over 400 yards to Maryland in their opener, held USC to fewer yards (317) than Stanford did (332).

Simply put, this Oregon offense is the best unit that Stanford will have faced to this point in the season. The Ducks come in averaging 51 ppg (8th) and are averaging 503 ypg (24th). They have playmakers at both running back and wide receiver, plus a season veteran at quarterback in junior Justin Herbert, who already has thrown for 12 touchdowns.

I know the schedule has been soft, but the Oregon defense is better than people think, especially up front. The Ducks are sitting 9th in the country, allowing just 77 ypg and have allowed just 2.0 yards/carry. The defense should feed off what will be an electric crowd and I look for his entire Oregon team to come out with a chip on their shoulder after how bad they have been the last two years of this series. Give me Oregon +3!

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (TCU -3) 

I'll take my chances here with TCU as a short road favorite against the Longhorns.  I just don’t trust this Texas team. The win over USC looks great on paper, but that’s not a great Trojans team. I also still can’t get forget about that loss to Maryland in the opener.

Last year you could make the excuse that Texas was overlooking the Terps, but not this year. Not to mention that loss to Maryland looks even worse after the Terps were just annihilated at home by Temple 35-14. Note the Owls came into that came 0-2 with losses at home to Villanova and Buffalo. On top of that, the Tulsa team they struggled to beat two weeks ago lost at home to Arkansas State this past Saturday. 

Even though it came in a loss, TCU proved that they are for real. They lost by just 12-points, despite the Buckeyes scoring two defensive touchdowns. The yardage battle was almost identical, as Ohio State had 526 and the Horned Frogs had 511. Note that if you take away the two defensive scores, TCU held the Ohio State offense to just 26 points.

TCU’s defense is the best in the Big 12 and when you can get consistent stops on that side of the ball, you can go on the road and take down quality opponents. That defense is a big reason why the Horned Frogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.

You also can’t ignore the history of this series with the Horned Frogs winning 4 straight by at least 17 points. I know Texas head coach, Tom Herman, has been there for just one of them, but last year’s Longhorns team only managed 263 total yards against the TCU defense. Adding to this, the Horned Frogs have covered 4 of their last 5 trips to Austin.

It’s also worth noting that Texas has not been a good team to back when coming off a blowout win. The Longhorns are a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a win by more than 20 points. Give me TCU -3! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Oregon State +7)

I'll take my chances here with the Beavers getting a touchdown at home against Arizona. Oregon State is light years better than the team that finished 1-11 last year. They put up 31 points on a great Ohio State defense in Week 1, rolled Southern Utah at home and nearly upset Nevada on the road. 

A lot of people haven't heard of Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith, but he's doing some big things in year one, mainly on the offensive side of the ball. The Beavers only averaged 20.7 ppg and 334 ypg last year. Smith, who was the OC at Washington the last 5 years, has them at 38.0 ppg and 527 ypg early on in 2018. 

As for Arizona, this team was way over-hyped coming into the season and it's shown. They lost at home to BYU in their opener and were annihilated on the road by Houston. The lone win came against Southern Utah and it was a very similar outcome to when Oregon State played Southern Utah. I just think these two teams are a lot more evenly matched than a lot of people realize. The biggest thing with the Beavers and this line, is they have been so bad for so long that they are going to keep showing value even though they are clearly better. Give me Oregon State +7! 

50* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE MONTH (S. Carolina -2.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Gamecocks laying less than a field goal on the road against the Commodores. South Carolina has to be absolutely chomping at the bit to take the field. They have yet to play a game after that ugly Week 2 loss at home to Georgia, as last weeks game against Marshall was canceled due to the hurricane that hit the area. 

Not to take anything away from the Commodores, who are better than expected, but this is a horrible spot for them off that heartbreaking loss to Notre Dame. The offense that lit it up against Middle Tennessee and Nevada managed just 17 points against the Fighting Irish. That's not going to cut it against this South Carolina team, which I think is a lot better than they get credit for. 

It's also worth noting this series has been very lopsided. The Commodores have lost 9 straight by an average of 9 ppg. I'm not saying it won't be close, but I just think there's way too much value with South Carolina essentially just needing to win the game outright to get the cover. Give me the Gamecocks -2.5! 

40* NCAAF UNDERDOG ATS SHOCKER (Missouri +15) 

I'll take my chances here with Missouri as more than a two touchdown dog at home to the Bulldogs. Georgia has looked the part of a playoff team to this point an already have that impressive road win over South Carolina. With that said, I think this Missouri team is a lot better than people think, but don't get the respect because of how they struggled against the top teams last year. 

The Tigers just went on the road and beat a good Purdue team that desperately didn't want to start 0-3 and that was no easy spot given this massive game was on deck. Anytime you have a quarterback that is as talented as Missouri's Drew Lock, you don't just have a good shot at keeping games close, but it's not out of the question they could pull off the upset. 

A big thing here is I don't think Georgia has seen an offense as explosive as Missouri. They are giving up just 8 ppg, but that's against teams averaging just 19.3 ppg and 318 ypg. The Tigers are sitting at 43.7 ppg and 589 ypg.

The Bulldogs better bring their "A" game or they might be leaving Columbia with their first loss of 2018. Either way I think the Tigers keep it closer than expected. Give me Missouri +15! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (FAU +13.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with FAU as a double-digit dog against UCF. I know the Knights have looked great early on and will have a massive edge in rest with them having not played since Sept. 8th and FAU on just 5 days of rest. However, I just think this is too many points.

I think there’s a couple reasons we are seeing FAU undervalued in this matchup. The first being that ugly 63-14 Week 1 loss at Oklahoma, where they went off as a mere 21-point dog. The other being the fact that they haven’t covered a single contest. Clearly this team was getting too much respect against the Sooners, but keep in mind they lost 42-19 and 31-14 in their first two games last year against Navy and Wisconsin.

I just have a lot of trust in Lane Kiffin and the Owls offense to score enough here to keep this game competitive. After struggling to get anything going against Oklahoma, Florida Atlantic has amassed over 500 total yards in each of their last two games against Air Force and Bethune-Cookman. What I like is how they took advantage of what the defense gave them. They had just 54 rushing yards against the Falcons, but Chris Robinson threw for 471 yards. Against Bethune-Cookman they rushed for 376 yards, while only throwing for 183.

UCF’s defense looks great through the first two games, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that they have played UConn and South Carolina St. 

Despite playing some bad offenses the run defense has given up 220 yards to UConn and 177 last time out to South Carolina State.

As for UCF’s offense, they are going to score some points behind talented junior quarterback McKenzie Milton, but once again the big numbers through the first two games are more a result of who they played. I think FAU can get some stops and it wouldn’t shock me of the Owls pulled off the upset. Give me Florida Atlantic +13.5!

40* NCAAF THURSDAY NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (Tulsa +7) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Tulsa as a touchdown underdog against the Owls. Not only do I think the Golden Hurricane will keep it close enough to cover, but I believe they can win this game outright. I know Tulsa is coming off a home loss to Arkansas State, but this is a much better team than people realize. The Golden Hurricane are just 2 years removed from a 10-win season and are loaded this year with 15 starters back. 

Tulsa averaged just 29.3 ppg last year, but had put up 42.5 ppg in 2016 and 37.2 ppg in 2015. With 8 starters back and a talented sophomore quarterback in Luke Skipper leading the charge, I look for this Golden Hurricane offense to get back to averaging close to 40 ppg this year. 

Temple's defense couldn't have looked much better against the Terps, but they just loaded the box and made Maryland one dimensional. Not to mention it looked like the Terps were a little over-confident going into that matchup after their impressive 2-0 start. This is still the same Owls team that lost outright as favorites at home against both Villanova and Buffalo. Give me the Golden Hurricane +7! 

40* NCAAF PRIME-TIME ATS SLAUGHTER (Texas -3) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Longhorns laying just a field goal at home. I think even though USC is the team that lost last week, the public is just not a believer in this Texas team. So many people thought they were going to make that jump back to being elite in 2018, but that was thrown out the window in their Week 1 loss to Maryland and less than impressive showing against Tulsa to follow it up.

The 2nd half against the Golden Hurricane wasn’t great, but I liked how Texas started out that game. You almost had to wonder if they went into the half up 21-0 and started looking ahead to this game against USC. This is definitely one Texas had circled on the calendar after how they blew that game last year in Los Angeles. Add in this being a home game and it coming at night in front of what will be an electric crowd in Austin and I just don’t think it’s asking a lot for Texas to win this game by more than a field goal.

My biggest thing with USC is I think they are getting way too much respect coming into this season. I know the Trojans recruit well, but anytime you lose a quarterback the caliber of Sam Darnold, there’s going to be some setbacks. I really like the potential of Daniels, but he’s just a kid and we saw him not look nearly as good on the road against Stanford as he did in the opener at home. I think that’s a trend that will keep repeating itself as this season goes on, especially when USC plays on the road against a quality opponent. It’s also worth noting that while Daniels is expected to play, he’s a little banged up, as he suffered an injury to his throwing hand in the loss to the Cardinal.

USC is just 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 road games and are on a miserable 3-13-1 run ATS over their last 17 games. They have also failed to cover each of their last 6 non-conference games and are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games played in September. Give me the Longhorns -3.

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Auburn -10) 

While Auburn has a ton of big games on their schedule, there’s no question this is one they had circled. They haven’t forgot about that ugly collapse against LSU in Baton Rouge last year and revenge is definitely an angle I look to back in the SEC. Going back to 2000, a team that lost as a favorite the previous year is 125-89-7 (58%) ATS in the next meeting. You also have to factor in just how much home field has meant in the series. The road team has lost each of the last 5 meetings and only twice in the last 18 times these teams have played has the home team loss.

While motivation is a huge factor, it’s not the only reason I like Auburn to win here by double-digits. I think Auburn’s defense is going to make life miserable on the LSU offense. Despite winning comfortably against Miami, LSU only had 296 total yards in the win. They also managed just 335 against Southeastern Louisiana and looked lost at times against a FCS defense. Ohio State transfer, Joe Burrow is getting a lot of praise for leading LSU to two wins, but I haven’t been that impressed. It’s one thing to struggle against Miami (11 of 24 for just 140 yards), but to go just 10 of 20 for 151 yards against the Lions is a major concern for me.

I believe for LSU to effectively move the football in this game, Burrows is going to have to be a difference-maker in the passing game. That’s because Auburn has one of the best defensive lines in the country. They held Washington’s star running back, Myles Gaskin to just 75 yards as Washington was forced to attack them thru the air. I just don’t see LSU being able to establish the running game to the point where they can sustain drives without Burrows making some big plays with his arm. I think he’s going to have a really tough time playing well on the road and could see a couple costly turnovers that turn a close game into a blowout.

I also don’t think it’s a given that LSU’s defense is going to be able to contain this Auburn offense, which features one of the best signal callers in the SEC in junior Jarrett Stidham. Keep in mind while they only managed 21 points against Washington, Auburn had 420 total yards and 27 first downs against a Huskies defense that was considered to be one of the best in the country.

It’s also worth noting how these two teams have performed coming off a comfortable win. Auburn is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 off a win by more than 20 points, while LSU is just 1-3-1 in their last 5 off a win by 20 or more. The Tigers are also 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games played in September and Auburn is 15-5 ATS under Gus Malzahn after a game in which they scored at least 42 points. Give me Auburn -10.

50* NCAAF 'MAC' GAME OF THE MONTH (N. Illinois -14) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Northern Illinois laying just two touchdowns at home against a Central Michigan team that just lost at home to Kansas (Jayhawks had lost 46 straight on the road). While the Chippewas did lose by just 15 at Kentucky, that was a much bigger mismatch than the final score would lead on. Kentucky had a 427-255 edge in total yards. 

Northern Illinois comes in at 0-2, but that was almost to be expected given they opened up the season at Iowa and at home against Utah. They ended up losing 33-7 to the Hawkeyes, but that was just 3-0 at the half. They were down just 7-6 in the 4th quarter and were still in it until a late pick six by the Utes (lost 17-6). 

Sitting at 0-2 the Huskies are way undervalued and ready to lay a whopping on someone. Lucky for them the Chippewas are a team they can do just that against. Not to mention a team they want to beat badly after losing to them in the regular-season finale last year. 

Central Michigan only had 280 yards at home against Kansas and turned it over 6 times. This is one of the worst offenses in the FBS and I fully expect Northern Illinois to win here by 20+ points. Give me the Huskies -14! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS SHOCKER (Pitt +3.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with Pitt as a home dog against the Yellow Jackets. I think we are seeing a big overreaction to Pitt’s 51-6 blowout loss at home last week to Penn State. The outcome simply doesn’t do justice to the caliber a team the Panthers are. They were a couple breaks away early in that game from a much different outcome. As for Georgia Tech, I have a lot of concerns with this team’s performance against South Florida. The Yellow Jackets made the Bulls look a lot better than they actually are. Simply put, Georgia Tech should not be favored on the road, especially in conference play. 

The biggest key for me is the Panthers offense should have a field day against this Georgia Tech defense. The Yellow Jackets gave up 224 rushing yards and 3 scores on the ground against South Florida and Pitt showed their running game is for real with 245 yards against a good Penn State defense. I look for a big bounce back game from Panthers quarterback Kenny Pickett, who didn’t get to really showcase his arm against the Nittany Lions because of a steady rain.

Not only do I think Pitt will be able to put up points, but I also think the defense could make things difficult on a banged up Georgia Tech offense. The Panthers have their most talented defense since Pat Narduzzi took over and all those returning starters have prepared in years past for this Georgia Tech option offense. The Yellow Jackets lost starting B-back KirVonte Benson for the season in their loss to USF and Benson torched the Panthers last year for 196 yards and 2 touchdowns. Starting quarterback TaQuon Marshall is going to be playing at less than 100% and starting center Kenny Cooper is questionable to play with a foot injury.

I definitely like the revenge factor with Pitt losing last year’s meeting at Georgia 35-17, but I also think this is a really tough spot for the Yellow Jackets. It stings anytime you blow a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter and those games you feel like you should have won are the toughest to bounce back from. Add in the fact that they are hosting Clemson next week, easily their biggest home game of the season and I think there’s a good chance they come out flat against a hungry Pitt team. Give me the Panthers +3.5.

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Boston College -4.5)

As much as I don’t like road favorites in these weekday games, I would have to leans towards laying the points with the Eagles in this one. I just feel like Boston College is the far superior team in this matchup. I know they aren’t ranked right now, but I believe it’s only a matter of time before the Eagles crack the Top 25.

Not only is BC the more talented team, but I love that they are playing with revenge from last year’s ugly 24-point loss at home to Wake Forest. Another huge factor here is home field hasn’t exactly meant a lot in this series. In fact, the road team has won outright each of the last 4 years.

I also feel like this Boston College team is built to win games on the road. The Eagles can ground and pound you on offense and are very sound defensively. They have all 5 starters back on the offensive line and one of the best running backs in the country in sophomore A.J. Dillion. As for the defense, that side of the ball has been the strength of this team under head coach Steve Addazio and with 5 of their top 6 tacklers back from last year, they should be one of the best the ACC has to offer.

I also want to point out that the Eagles are more than capable of attacking teams through the air. Sophomore quarterback Anthony Brown started 10 games as a freshman and he’s got his top 6 receivers back. Not to mention, he’s going to really benefit from defenses having to load the box. This has the makings of the best offense in the Addazio era.

Wake Forest is a program on the rise under head coach Dave Clawson, but they figure to come into this fight short-handed. Projected starting quarterback Kendall Hilton won’t be available until next week, as he finishes up serving a 3-game suspension. They have already lost starting left tackle Justin Herron and  running back Arkeem Byrd to season ending injuries. Starting safety Cameron Glenn (last year’s leading tackler) and starting corner Ameri Henderson are also both questionable to play, as is one of their top returning wide outs in Scotty Washington.

The Demon Deacons were fortunate to leave New Orleans with a win over Tulane in their opener and while they ended up beating Towson by 31-points, they were tied 14-14 at the end of the 1st quarter and really didn’t separate themselves until Gerg Dortch returned two punts for touchdowns in the 2nd quarter. Turnovers have also been a problem, as Wake has already coughed it up 5 times after only giving it away 13 times all of last year.

All these things are going to make it very difficult for Demon Deacons to keep this game close. Give me the Eagles -6.5!

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS MASSACRE (Florida -13.5) 

There's been no shortage of talent in Gainesville and now they have a legit head coach in Dan Mullen, who did an amazing job developing and improving the talent he had to work with at Mississippi State. With 19 starters back and off an ugly 4-7 season, I think the Gators or primed to be one of the most improved teams in the country and got a legit shot at knocking off Georgia for the SEC East title. 

I got a lot of respect for what Mark Stoops has done with Kentucky, but they just don't have the talent to keep this game close on the road against a loaded Florida team. The atmosphere is going to be electric at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium and that's going to spell trouble for Wildcats first year starter Terry Wilson. Keep in mind we saw a similar priced game the last time Kentucky visited Florida in 2015 (+16) and the Gators won that going away 45-7. 

Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points who have 9 or more offensive starters returning and coming off a game where they gained 6.25 or more yards/play are 57-25 (70%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. These teams on average have won by 22 ppg and I fully expect the Gators to win here by at least 21 and all we need is for them to win by 14. Give me Florida -13.5! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Arkansas -13.5) 

I'll gladly back the Razorbacks laying less than two touchdowns against Colorado State. The Rams are way down this year, as they only bring back 9 starters from a team that only went 7-6 a year ago. The offense hasn't been good in the first two games and that's no surprise. They had just 7 points midway thru the 3rd quarter against a horrible Hawaii defense and managed just 13 points and 284 yards against Colorado in their second game. Not only did they lose one of their all-time passing leaders in Nick Stevens, but they lost a 1,400 yard back and receiver. 

Arkansas gets overlooked by a lot of people because they play in the loaded SEC West, but the Razorbacks are going to surprise some people in Chad Morris' first season. Arkansas has 17 returning starters back from last year. The put up 55 potions behind a high-powered passing attack that accounted for 353 yards in the opening win against Eastern Illinois. 

In Colorado State's first two games their secondary has been absolutely torched, giving up 418 passing yards to Hawaii and 338 against the Buffaloes (also allowed 258 yards rushing to Colorado). With the limitations of the offense, this team has no shot of keeping this game close. Give me the Razorbacks -13.5! 

50* NCAAF NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Nebraska -3)

I have really high expectations for Nebraska this season and just can't pass up on the Cornhuskers only laying a field goal at home against the Buffaloes. Especially given how fired up Nebraska is going to be for this game, as their opener was canceled because of weather. 

I think people are expecting a much improved Cornhuskers offense under new head coach Scott Frost, but I don't think people outside of Lincoln are aware of the talent they have at quarterback in true freshman Adrian Martinez. He's flashed in practice and was a Frost recruit. I think he's going to have the Nebraska offense firing on all cylinders. 

I know Colorado held Colorado State to just 13 points, but they held the Rams to just 3 points last year and would up being a pretty average defensive team. Keep in mind that's a Colorado State defense that had just 7 points midway through the 3rd quarter against an awful Hawaii defense. 

The other thing people are going to over look with Nebraska is their defense, which is coming off a horrific 2017 season, where they gave up 36.4 ppg and 436 ypg. New defensive coordinator Erik Chinander came over with Frost from UCF and in his first season with the Knights he took a defense that had allowed 37.7 ppg the previous year to allowing just 24.6 ppg. I think this one could get ugly. Give me Nebraska -3! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Mississippi St -7) 

As much as I don't like betting against Kansas State as a home dog, I don’t see anyway the Wildcats can keep this within double-digits. 

I thought the Bulldogs hire of Moorehead was one of the most underrated coaching hires of the entire offseason. Moorehead spent the last two years as the OC for Penn State and was the mastermind behind the Nittany Lions revival. When he took over at Penn State the Nittany Lions averaged just 23.2 ppg the previous year. In his first season he had them scoring 37.6 ppg. 

I don't think people realize just how potent this Mississippi State offense is going to be.A lot of people are going to shrug off the 63 points and over 600+ yards of total offense they put up in their opener because it came against SF Austin. Not me. The Bulldogs did all of that without starting quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, who was suspended for the first game. 

I just don’t see Kansas State being able to keep pace offensively in this one. The Wildcats were lucky to come away with a 27-24 win at home over South Dakota in their opener at home, as they were getting dominated basically the entire game. I just don’t know how this team is going to be able to move the football against this loaded Mississippi State defense.

For Kansas State’s offense to be effective they have to be able to run the football. I don’t see that happening against this loaded Mississippi State defensive line, which is right there with Alabama and Georgia as one of the best defensive lines in the SEC and not far behind the likes of Ohio State and Clemson. Give me the Bulldogs -7! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS NO-BRAINER (Georgia Tech -3) 

I'll gladly lay just a field goal with Georgia Tech against USF. The Yellow Jackets are coming off a 5-6 campaign, but rarely does this team struggle in back-to-back years. They went 3-9 in 2015 and followed that up by going 9-4. With 13 starters back, including 8 on offense, I expect Georgia Tech to be a much stronger team in 2018. 

They certainly looked the par in their 41-0 blowout win over Alcorn State in their opener. Georgia Tech piled on 543 yards, while the defense held the Braves to just 146 yards. I look for the Yellow Jackets to have no problem running all over a South Florida defense that only brings back 5 starters and had to replace 3 of 4 starters on the defensive line. 

I also think the Bulls are going to be way down offensively this year. Not only did they lose their do it all quarterback in Quinton Flowers, but they lost their top two running backs and No. 1 receiver. The thing is this team is still getting a ton of respect from going 21-4 over the last 2 seasons. Now is the time to fade the Bulls. Give me Georgia Tech -3! 

40* NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT ATS SLAUGHTER (TCU -22) 

I’m not a huge fan of playing big road favorites in weekday games. Especially knowing the public will be all over the same side and TCU having a massive game on deck against Ohio State next week. With that said, I can't help myself but lay the big number with the Horned Frogs. 

I just have a hard time seeing how SMU can keep this game close after how poorly their offense played against North Texas. A team they beat last year 54-32. The Mustangs finished the game with a mere 256 yards and most of that came in garbage time, as they couldn’t even get first downs the first 3 quarters of that game (208 of their 256 total yards came in the 4th quarter, It's also worth pointing out the offensive line allowed 9 sacks. 

I think that’s a really bad sign for SMU going forward, as the biggest thing for me with this team is how the offense would fair after losing Morris. I wasn’t a fan at all of the hire of Sonny Dykes and that performance against the Mean Green tells me this team is in some serious trouble in 2018.

If they can’t get first downs against North Texas, how in the heck are they going to move the ball against a TCU defense that many believe have the best defense in the Big 12. You have to think the Horned Frogs are going to score at will on this SMU defense. The Mustangs could score in the 20’s and still not cover the spread.

As far as this being a bad spot to take TCU because of the lookahead to Ohio State, I think there’s two key things that will keep the Horned Frogs from laying an egg. The first is this being the only game on the board. Players love showing out in nationally televised prime time games.

The other is they came out flat last year against SMU and found themselves luckily to only be down 19-7 early in the 2nd quarter. They ended up winning that game by a final score of 56-36. I have a hard time seeing Gary Patterson letting his team come out sluggish against the same opponent two years in a row. Give me the Horned Frogs -22!

It’s also worth noting that TCU is 34-18 ATS under Patterson off a win as a favorite where the team failed to cover the spread, while SMU is a mere 4-19 ATS in their last 23 home games off a contest where they were outgained by 225 or more yards. Give me the Horned Frogs -21.5!

40* FSU/VA TECH LABOR DAY ATS MASSACRE (Va Tech +7.5) 

I think the perception with Florida State is that they are going to bounce back in a big way in 2018, but I’m not completely sold on the Seminoles returning to elite status. I know Taggert has a great background, but there’s a bit of a learning curve when you making a coaching change. FSU is undergoing scheme changes on both sides of the ball. Simply put, I think the loss of Fisher is going to have a big impact on this team in a negative way.

I’m not saying the Seminoles shouldn’t be favored at home, but laying over a touchdown is a bit much against a Virginia Tech program that appears on the rise under Fuente. There’s been a lot of talk about how young the Hokies are going to be defensively and I think that’s scaring people away from this team. While they will be young, they still have a ton of talent and one of the best defensive coordinators in the game in Bud Foster.

While the lack of experience coming back on defense is getting a lot of publicity with Virginia Tech, people are overlooking how much Florida State lost from their stop unit. In fact, the Seminoles have fewer starters (4) coming back on defense than the Hokies (5). FSU lost their top 4 tacklers and 6 of their top 8 (3 players taken in first 4 rounds of NFL draft).

I know the Seminoles will have Deondre Fancois back at quarterback, but he could be working with a depleted receiving corps. Last year’s leading wide out, Nyqwan Murray is questionable with a knee injury and projected starter D.J. Matthews is questionable with a back injury.

I just don’t see Florida State running away with this game to where they can cover this number and wouldn’t be shocked if they lost the game outright. Give me the Hokies +7.5! 

40* NCAAF MIAMI/LSU ATS NO-BRAINER (Miami -3) 

Mark Richt has this program headed back to being a legit national title contender. With 14 starters back (7 offense, 7 defense), I believe they are fully capable of winning the ACC and making the 4-team playoff..

It’s hard to find a weakness with this Miami team. The offense should be even better than it was a year ago. They get back senior quarterback Malik Rosier, who threw for over 3,000 yards with 26 touchdowns and another 468 yards and 5 scores on the ground. Rosier won’t have to do it all, as Miami gets back talented running back Travis Homer and are loaded up front on the offensive line. The Hurricanes do lose their top 2 receivers, but have a ton of big recruits ready to step in.

Defensively Miami should field one of the best stop units in the country. They have their top 5 tacklers back from last year’s team that allowed just 21.0 ppg and 363 ypg. They know how to get to the quarterback (44 sacks last year) and were one of the best in the country at forcing turnovers. Miami only lost the turnover battle twice all of last season.

I know LSU recruits extremely well and have some nice talent on the roster, but I just don’t have a good feeling about this program. I’m not a fan of Orgeron and believe this will be his last year in Baton Rouge. The biggest thing for me is the lack of experience that LSU has coming back for 2018. Not only do they have just 10 starters come back, but they bring back just 47 lettermen (only Kentucky has fewer returning lettermen in the SEC).

While there’s a good chance the defense will be sharp, I have major concerns with the offense, which has to replace their starting quarterback, top 4 rushers and top 3 receivers from last year. I know people are excited about Ohio State transfer Joe Burrow taking over at quarterback, but I’m not sold on him stepping in and putting up big numbers. Give me Miami -3! 

40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT ATS DESTROYER (BYU +12) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Cougars as a double-digit dog at Arizona. The Wildcats are getting a ton of love going into the season because of all the hype surrounding quarterback Khalil Tate. On the flip side of this, BYU isn't exactly a team the public wants to back after they went just 4-9 last year. I believe it's created some big time value with the Cougars, who keep in mind beat Arizona in the opener a couple years ago as a 1-point favorite. 

Tate is a good player and his big runs can be exciting, but teams started to key on him more as last season progressed and his production declined. Arizona as a team went just 1-4 in their final 5 games. 

It's hard to explain the falloff for BYU last year, but you can't overlook the fact that they had to play LSU, Utah and Wisconsin in a 3-game stretch after opening with Portland St. Starting quarterback Tanner Magnum was banged up early and was never really himself, which had a lot to do with the team not living up to their potential. He's back healthy and the Cougars have 14 starters back. They also have 60 total lettermen returning, making them one of the Top 10 most experienced teams in the country.

I think this team is going to be greatly improved and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they won this game outright. Give me the Cougars +12! 

50* NCAAF PRIME TIME SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Michigan +1.5) 

Not to take anything away from Notre Dame, who I think is without a doubt one of the Top 25 most talented teams in the country, I just like Michigan that much more.

I know the Wolverines have struggled to win the big games since Harbaugh took over, but a lot of that had to do with the lack of talent he had to work with at the quarterback position. In his first year he had to rely on Iowa transfer Jake Rudock. In year two it was Wilson Speight and last year it was a combination of Speight, John O’Korn and Brandon Peters. I think the addition of Shea Patterson finally gives Harbuagh the talent at quarterback to not just win the Big Ten, but the national championship.

Keep in mind we saw Michigan average 40.3 ppg in 2016 with Speight at quarterback. With all of their top skill players back and a solid offensive line that will have three starters back, I have a hard time believing this won’t be the most prolific offense of the Harbaugh era in Ann Arbor.

If the offense rounds into the form most are expecting, it’s going to be extremely difficult for teams to score enough to beat this team. Michigan’s defense is absolutely loaded with NFL talent and just might be the best stop unit in the country. They have 9 starters back from a unit that only gave up 18.8 ppg and 271 ypg. Keep in mind they put up those ridiculous numbers last year with a mere 1 starter back from the previous season.

I just don’t see Notre Dame being able to generate enough offense to win this game. Wimbush is a much bigger threat to run the ball than he is to throw it. He only completed 49.5% of his pass attempts last year and will be working behind an offensive line that has to replace two 1st round draft picks. The Irish also lose leading rusher Josh Adams and his replacement, senior Dexter Williams, is suspended for the first 4 games. Give me the Wolverines +1.5! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (North Texas -4.5) 

I'll gladly take North Texas a mere 4.5-point home favorite against SMU. The Mean Green are coming off a surprising 9-win season and I see no reason for them not to build off that success, as they are now in year 3 under head coach Seth Littrell and have 17 starters back (one of the most experienced teams in the country). 

While North Texas is loaded and trending in the right direction, SMU is in a bit of flux, as they have to adjust to life without head coach Chad Morris, who parlayed his success with the Mustangs to a job at Arkansas. Sonny Dykes replaces Morris and I wasn't a huge fan of his in his previous stint at Cal. 

With the addition of Dykes also comes scheme changes on both sides of the ball and it was Morris' schemes, especially on offense that got SMU back to being competitive. I look for the offense to struggle to get going on the road in the first game of the season. I know North Texas' defense wasn't great last year, but they got 8 starters back and added in some nice JUCO transfers. They will be improved. 

Morris improved the defense in his time at SMU, but it remained a weakness. I just don't see them being able to contain what I think will be one of the best offenses in the C-USA, which is saying something. Give me North Texas -4.5! 

50* NCAAF OPENING WEEK GAME OF THE YEAR (Louisiana Tech -10) 

I'll gladly take my chances on Louisiana Tech as a mere 10-point favorite against South Alabama. I'm extremely high on the Bulldogs in 2018, as they will be one of the most experienced teams in the country with 15 starters and 52 lettermen back from last year, including talented junior quarterback J'Mar Smith. 

It's the first time that Louisiana Tech head coach Skip Holtz will have his starting quarterback back, which is really amazing given this is his 6th year with the team. I think this year's offense will rival the 2015 Bulldogs, which put up 44.3 ppg and 515 ypg. 

I look for them to score at will here against the Jaguars. South Alabama is one of the worst teams in the Sun Belt, which is hands down the worst FBS conference. The Jaguars went just 4-8 last year and the defense struggled to contain the top offenses they faced. That included a game against Louisiana Tech, which they were lucky to only give up 34 points, as the Bulldogs had nearly 500 yards of offense. 

The other key here is Louisiana Tech is expected to have their best defense yet of the Holtz era and the stop unit is what will allow the Bulldogs to create separation. South Alabama only averaged 19.9 ppg and 334 ypg last year. They should be better, but will not be able to keep pace here. Give me Louisiana Tech -10! 

40* NCAAF UNDERDOG ATS SHOCKER (FAU +21) 

I just feel the Sooners are getting way too much respect given what they lost at quarterback. I know they have former Texas A&M transfer, Kyler Murray, ready to take over, but it’s ludicrous to think he’s going to put up anywhere close to the number of the Heisman winner. Mayfield completed a ridiculous 70.5% of his 404 pass attempts last year, throwing for more than 4,600 yards with a ridiculous 43-6 TD-INT ratio.

What also gets lost is how having a player as talented as Mayfield at quarterback makes everyone else around him look better. I’m not saying the Sooners offense won’t score a ton of points, but they aren’t going to be as prolific on that side of the ball. Let’s also not overlook this FAU defense, which has 10 starters back from a unit that only gave up 22.7 ppg and 390 ypg last year.

Oklahoma also lost some big pieces on the defensive side of the ball and you can bet that Kiffin will have the Owls offense well prepared for what they will see from the Sooners defense. I know FAU has just 5 starters back on offense and has to replace their starting QB, but they have two Power 5 transfers competing for the open job. One of those is former Oklahoma recruit Chris Robison, who Kiffin has compared to Johnny Manziel.

FAU also has one of the best running backs in the country in Devin Singletary, who is coming off a season in which he rushed for 1,920 yards and 32 touchdowns. While he’s unlikely to put up video game like numbers against a Power 5 defense, keep in mind he had 68 yards and a score on 17 carries last year against a stout Wisconsin run defense (only gave up 98 ypg rushing).

I also have some concerns here with Oklahoma not giving the Owls their full attention with a home game against UCLA on deck and a big revenge game the following week against Iowa State (beat them on their home field last year). As for FAU, they are going to give the Sooners every thing they got, as this is their only chance to show how good they are against a Power 5 team. I don’t think an outright upset is out of the question, but either way I’m confident they keep it within the number. Give me FAU +21! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Colorado -7.5) 

I'm really high on Colorado this season. I think they are going to be one of the most improved teams in the Pac-12. At the same time, I'm way down on Colorado State and recommended a play on Hawaii in "Week Zero" as a big dog and wasn’t the least bit surprised to see them lose outright. Simply put, I don’t think the spread is high enough. I would be shocked if Colorado didn’t win here by double-digits.

It’s interesting to note that this is a near identical scheduling scenario to last year, when Colorado State hosted Oregon State in “Week Zero” and had to turn around and play Colorado the following Friday. The Buffaloes ended up winning that contest 17-3. It continued a dominant stretch for Colorado in this in-state rivalry, as they have won 8 of the last 10 meetings, including all 3 since Mike Bobo replaced Jim McElwain at Colorado State.

I also don’t think people are factoring in just how bad a loss that was to Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors aren’t expected to be bowl eligible at season end and that’s a team they dominated a season ago by 30-points on the road.

While Colorado only has 4 starters back on offense from last year, there actually in a lot better shape than people realize. Not only do they have a talented quarterback in Montez, but they added in Virginia Tech transfer Travon McMillian at running back, which will ease the loss of Phillip Lindsay, who left as the school’s #2 all-time rusher. They also have a couple of Power 5 transfers in Juwaan Winfree (Maryland) and Tony Brown (Texas Tech) at wide receiver.

Keep in mind that while Colorado’s defense took a big step back last year, they only gave up a mere 3 points to a talented Colorado State offense that went on to average 33.4 ppg. All signs point to the Buffaloes being greatly improved on that side of the ball and I think we could end up seeing a similar outcome to when these two teams met in 2016, which Colorado won 44-7 as a mere 8-point favorite. Give me the Buffaloes -7.5!

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Tulane +6) 

The public will undoubtedly be drawn to playing Wake Forest. They see an ACC team that won 8 games last year going up against a team that has been to one bowl since 2002. They will gladly lay the points, as to them this line will likely seem to small.

I personally think there’s a ton of value with Tulane, as I believe they have a legit shot at winning this game outright. I think there’s going to be a buzz around this Green Wave team in New Orleans and I expect a rowdy home crowd for Tulane. They went 4-2 at home last year, including an upset win of Houston as a 9-point dog and a mere 28-34 loss to #16 USF.

I’m not sure everyone is aware that Tulane is running the option offense, but that’s definitely a factor here. Wake Forest only returns has to replace 4 starters in their front 7 on defense. Keep in mind they did have some troubles against the run last year, giving up 4.4 yards/carry and 186 yards/game. The Green Wave have 4 of their 5 starters back on the offensive line and a senior quarterback in Banks that knows how to operate the option offense.

I know Tulane’s defense loses a lot, but they have really taken some nice strides since Fritz took over. I think they will be better than expected and will feed off the home crowd in this one.

Another huge factor in favor of the Green Wave being able to hold their own is projected starting quarterback Kendall Hilton is suspended for the first 3 games of the season. Hilton was the clear-cut favorite to win the job, as he had previously beat out Wolford.

Talented backup running back Arkeem Byrd has also been lost for the year to a torn ACL and starting wide out Scotty Washington is doubtful with a shoulder injury. Washington's loss can't be overlooked, as the Demon Deacons already had to replace two guys who combined for more than 1,200 yards and 16 touchdowns. 

I think we could really see the Demon Deacons offense struggle to get going and if Tulane doesn’t fumble (rarely throw), they will have a good shot at winning the turnover battle. I believe the smart play here is to grab the points. Give me the Green Wave +6! 

50* NCAAF NATIONAL CHAMP SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Georgia +5) 

As much as respect what Saban and Alabama have been able to do, I just think there's too much value here with Georgia catching almost a touchdown in the title game. I personally think these are two very evenly matched teams and think that this should be closer to a pick'em than anything. I just think that the Bulldogs ability to lineup and take away the running game from Alabama is going to be the difference here. Keep in mind that Kirby Smart use to be the defensive coordinator at Alabama and few have a better idea of how to stop Alabama's offensive attack. On the flip side of this, I think the explosiveness and talent of Georgia's running backs are going to be the difference, as I just don't think the Crimson Tide can shut them down for 4 quarters. Give me the Bulldogs +5! 

50* ALABAMA/CLEMSON SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Alabama -3)

I'll gladly take my chances here with Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide laying just a field goal in the much anticipated rubber-match. I have nothing but respect for what Dabo Swinney has been able to do at Clemson, but I just think the Tigers are in for a long day against a pissed off Alabama team that is out for revenge for last year's loss in the title game. 

Sure Clemson has played the Tide tough each of the last two years, but let's not forget who was at quarterback for the Tigers. Deshaun Watson was the only reason they were in either of those games and the only reason they won last year. Yes, Kelly Bryant had a great season, but I think people are getting carried away with thinking that he's going to be able to do the same things that Watson did to this Alabama defense.

Bryant's numbers don't even come close to what Watson put up last year. He's thrown for 13 touchdowns and 2,678 yards. Watson going into last year's playoffs had thrown for 3,914 yards with 37 touchdowns. Clemson also had one of the best wide outs in the country in Mike Williams, who had caught 84 pass for 1,171 yards and 10 touchdowns. This year no Tigers wide out has more than 55 catches, 659 yards or 6 TDs. 

There's also another big difference here that I think is huge. Each of the previous two meetings came in the title game, where each team has just 1-week to prepare for their opponent, unlike the semifinals where you have close to a month. Last year in the semifinals, Alabama held Washington to just 7 points and the year before that they shutout Michigan State. 

As far as Alabama's offense is concerned, I also think people forget about Lane Kiffin getting the ax the week leading up to last year's game against Clemson. A move that very well could have cost them the game. All the talk leading up to this game has been about the Tigers defensive line and how great they are. That's only going to fuel the Alabama offensive line and I think they play well in this one. Give me the Crimson Tide -3! 

40* NOTRE DAME/LSU CITRUS BOWL KNOCKOUT (Notre Dame +3.5)

I know Notre Dame struggled down the stretch, but I think we are getting too good of a price here on the Irish to pass up. I think we are going to see an extremely motivated Notre Dame take the field, as this team should feel like it has something to prove. 

The SEC might have two teams in the playoffs, but overall the conference was down this year. I believe there was a substantial gap between Alabama, Georgia and Auburn from the rest of the league. Notre Dame played one of those elite teams and fared really well, losing by just 1-point to Georgia, which I think is a much better version of the Tigers. 

LSU finished the year strong and had that impressive 27-23 win over Auburn, but that was at home, where they have a massive home field edge. I just don't think they are that great of a team. This is still the same team that lost at home to Troy and by 30 on the road to Mississippi State. 

LSU scored just 21.8 ppg away from home this year and will be going up against a well-coached Notre Dame defense that has had ample amount of time to prepare for the Tigers attack. It's also worth pointing out there's some disfunction on the offensive side of the ball, as there are rumors out that offensive coordinator Matt Canada is going to be fired after the bowl game. Can't see Canada being completely locked into his job knowing the team is going to let him go. 

It's no secret that when it comes to the Notre Dame offense their success relies on their ability to run the football. While LSU finished the year 21st against the run, I think they are going to have their hands full against this elite offensive line of the Irish, especially given that they are without three of their top linebackers in Arden Key, Corey Thompson and Donnie Alexander, all of which were in the Top 10 in tackles. They also combined to account for 11 sacks and 13.5 tackles for loss. 

I think given how poorly the SEC has looked in bowl games so far and the circumstances for LSU on both sides of the ball, Notre Dame should be the ones favored here. Give me the Irish +3.5! 

50* LIBERTY BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (ISU +4) 

I know this is a home game for the Tigers, but I still see a ton of value with the Cyclones catching over a field goal. Note that ISU was an excellent road team this season, going 4-2, which included a 38-31 win at Oklahoma and 31-13 win at Texas Tech. It’s also worth noting that their two road losses at West Virginia and at Kansas State both were by 4-points or less. 

Memphis is one of those teams that get’s a ton of love for their ability to put up points. The Tigers finished 2nd in the country with 47.8 ppg and 4th in total offense at 548.2 ypg.  The biggest reason for that is the schedule they played.

The best defense in terms of yards allowed per game that they faced was Navy, who ranked 60th and the only reason Navy’s defensive numbers aren’t worse is they run the ball so effectively and limit the number of possessions by controlling the clock. The next best defense they faced was Houston at 88th. Every other team they played was 94th or worse, including 6 teams who ranked in the bottom 10 in the nation.  

Iowa State finished 45th in the country in total defense, giving up just 368.5 ypg, which is even more impressive given they play in the Big 12. This is the best defense Memphis will have seen all season and it’s not even close. I think it’s going to be extremely difficult for the Tigers to adjust to actually playing a team that knows how to tackle and doesn’t just let receivers run wide open. I also love the fact that all you keep hearing in the hype for this game is how good this Memphis offense is and how will the Cyclones stop them. I think that only adds fuel to the fire for an Iowa State team that has been playing with a chip on their shoulder all season.  

On the flip side of this, the Tigers have one of the worst defenses in the country. Memphis finished 99th against the run (196.8 ypg) and 123rd against the pass (279.4 ypg). I think they are going to have a tough time here slowing down the Cyclones passing attack, which finished 33rd in the country at 269.5 ypg. At the same time, I think this is also a defense that ISU can pick up big chunks of yards against on the ground behind 1,000 yard rusher David Montgomery, who averaged just under 5 yards/carry. 

Lastly, I think the Cyclones have a massive edge here in terms of coaching with Matt Campbell, who I think will be headed to an elite program sooner rather than later. Note that in Campbell’s final two bowl games with Toledo, the Rockets absolutely dominated their opponents, winning 63-44 over Arkansas State in the 2014 GoDaddy Bowl as a mere 3-point favorite and 32-17 over No. 24 Temple in the 2015 Boca Raton Bowl as a 2-point dog.

As for Memphis head coach Mike Norvell, I think he’s still benefiting largely from the players left over from Justin Fuente’s tenure and note that last year the Tigers lost by 20 as 7-point dogs to Western Kentucky in their bowl game.  I’ll take the points as some added insurance, but I fully expect the Cyclones to win this game outright. Give me ISU +4! 

40* SUN BOWL NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Arizona St +7) 

I'll gladly take a touchdown here with the Sun Devils against the Wolfpack in Friday's Sun Bowl. Arizona State is in a unique situation here where they have fired head coach Todd Graham, yet are letting him coach and keep his staff in place for the bowl game. These players absolutely love Graham and are going to do whatever it takes here to get a win here in his final game with the program. 

I just don't see the same level of motivation for NC State and it stems from star defensive player Bradley Chubb choosing to sit this game out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Chubb was the heart and soul of that defense and was named the college football Defensive Player of the Year. You simply don't lose a player like that and expect good results, as he's one of those guys that made everyone else around him better. I look for the Sun Devils, who are a good offensive team (scored 37 or more in each of their last 4 games) to move the ball at will here and I'll bank on the defense getting enough stops to not only keep this game close enough to cover, but for them to win outright. Give me Arizona State +7! 

50* HOLIDAY BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Michigan State -2) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Spartans laying less than a field goal against the Cougars. Michigan State was one of the most improved teams in the country, as they finished 9-3 after going just 3-9 a year ago. They are going to be excited about getting back to a bowl and they have thrived in postseason play of late under head coach Mark Dantonio. Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowls with the only loss coming in that blowout defeat to Alabama in the playoffs a couple season ago where they had no business being in the playoffs. 

A huge factor here is how this Spartans defense stacks up against the Cougars offensive attack. Washington State is as one-dimensional off a passing offense as you will find. The Cougars had the 2nd ranked passing attack (374.8 ypg) and the 129th rushing attack (71.7 ypg). That passing attack will be up against a Michigan State defense that finished 34th in the country, allowing just 196.5 ypg through the air, while holding opposing quarterbacks to a mere 53.7% completion rate. Making matters even worse for the Cougars is their top two wide outs (Tavares Martin and Isaiah Johnson-Mack) have both been dismissed from the team. If Michigan State can get anything going offensively in this one, they should runaway with this contest. Give me the Spartans -2! 

40* CAMPING WORLD BOWL ATS SLAUGHTER (Oklahoma St -5.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Cowboys winning by at least a touchdown over the Hokies in the Camping World Bowl on Thursday. I have a ton of respect for Justin Fuente, but I don't see how Virginia Tech is going to keep pace with this high-powered Oklahoma State offensive attack. The Cowboys featured a balanced attack. They led the country in passing at 392.3 ypg and were 46th in rushing at 183.3 ypg. The numbers suggest the Hokies are a great defensive team, but I believe a lot of that has to do with the schedule they played. The closest thing they have seen all year to what OK State brings to the table was their opener against West Virginia and the Mountaineers put up 31 points and 592 total yards. I also have major concerns here for Virginia Tech's offense, which will be without their biggest playmaker in wide out Cam Phillips, who led the team with 71 receptions and 964 yards. Next best was Sean Savoy with a mere 39 receptions and 454 yards. Note that this is also a Hokies team that struggled to run the ball, as they averaged just 3.8 yards/carry against teams that allowed an average of 4.4. Give me the Cowboys -5.5! 

50* FOSTER FARM BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Purdue +3.5) 

I was on the Boilermakers a lot this year as I loved their hiring of head coach Jeff Brohm, who got immediate results in his first year. He guided Purdue to a 6-6 record and their first bowl appearance since 2012. Keep in mind this is a team that had won a combined 9 games over their previous 4 seasons. He went a perfect 2-0 in bowl games with WKU and I believe he gives his team a huge edge with all the extra time to prepare. 

Arizona finished 7-5, but were just 1-3 in their final 4 games with the only win coming against Oregon State. The emergence of Khalil Tate helped spark the 7-win season for Arizona, but it felt like teams started to have a better game-plan for stopping him. Purdue made massive strides on defense this year, allowing just 370.9 ypg and their strength was stopping the run, as they finished 30th in the country, allowing just 133.3 ypg and that's going up against all those great running teams in the Big Ten, as well as non-conference games against Louisville, Ohio and Missouri. 

I think the Boilermakers will be able to slow down Tate and that Arizona attack and that should allow them create some separation and likely win this game outright. The Wildcats are not a good defensive team, as they finished 89th against the run (187.3 ypg) and 122nd against the pass (278.6 ypg). Look for Purdue to have some explosive plays and I wouldn't be shocked if they won via a blowout. Give me the Boilermakers +3.5! 

50* CACTUS BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (K-State -6.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Wildcats winning by at least a touchdown over UCLA in Tuesday's Cactus Bowl. The Bruins have had quite an offseason with the hiring of Chip Kelly to take over for the departed Jim Mora. Kelly brings big time excitement for this program going forward, but he's not taking over until after the bowl game. Offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch is serving as the interim head coach for this game. On top of that, star quarterback Josh Rosen, a potential 1st round NFL draft pick isn't expected to play. 

I just think UCLA is going to have a really tough time here keeping this one competitive without Rosen. If not for his outstanding play this season, the Bruins wouldn't have been a bowl team. He repeatedly had to put this team on his back because of how poor the defense played. UCLA ranked 123rd out of 130 teams in total defensive, including posting the 129th ranked run defense. K-State might not be the most explosive offense, but they should have no problem here moving the ball and putting up points and while the Wildcats defense wasn't great, they are strong enough up front to take care of business against this Rosen-less UCLA offense. Give me Kansas State -6.5! 

40* IDAHO POTATO BOWL ATS SLAUGHTER (C Michigan +3.5)

The fact that Josh Allen is expected to play for Wyoming doesn't deter me the least bit from backing the Chippewas in this one. I think Allen's NFL hype has had the Cowboys drastically overvalued all season. Wyoming won 7 games and the only one that you can even consider as a good win came against Colorado State and a big reason they were able to win that game is it was played in rain and snow where both teams were basically relegated to just running up the middle, which is not the strength of Colorado State, who likes to throw the ball.

Central Michigan went 8-4 were arguably the 2nd best team in the MAC behind Toledo. This team tested itself early with non-confernce road games against 3-power 5 teams and it resulted in a 3-4 start to the season. They turned their season around with a 26-23 win at Ohio, which sparked a 5-game winning streak to end the year. Former Michigan quarterback Shane Morris has been a major spark plug in their turnaround and finished the year throwing for nearly 3,000 yards with 26 TD's. This is also a much better defense team that they get credit for and the best example of the talent on that side is when they held Toledo to just 30 points and less than 400 yards of offense. 

Even when Allen was healthy this Wyoming offense really struggles to move the ball, as they struggled to replace the production lost from running back Brian Hill, who rushed for 1,860 yards and 22 scores a season ago. The leading rusher in 2017 had just 474 yards. The offensive line is also a major weakness and I'm not expecting Allen to be sharp given he's coming off an injury and hasn't played in a game since Nov. 11th. Give me the Chippewas +3.5! 

40* GASPARILLA BOWL ATS KNOCKOUT (Temple -7)

I'll take my chances here with the Owls to win here by more than touchdown against FIU. The Golden Panthers are a great story, as Butch Davis has the program headed in the right direction, but I still think this is a team that is lucky to be sitting at 8-wins. Their resume was helped out a lot by getting to play the likes of Rice, Charlotte and UMass, plus a a cupcake FCS opponent. They do have wins over Western Kentucky and Marshall, but those teams are way down this year and we just saw the Hilltoppers lose to Georgia State by 10 in their bowl game. 

Big thing here for me is I just feel that the Owls are going to have the much easier time moving the ball. Temple was a completely different team down the stretch once Frank Nutile took over at quarterback, averaging 31.8 ppg in his 5 starts. He completed 61% of his attempts and will be facing a FIU defense that allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.4% of their attempts, while ranking 94th against the pass. 

Temple's defense wasn't up to their standards from previous year, but I love that defensive minded head coach Geoff Collins will have had ample amount of time to prepare for this FIU offense, which I don't think is anything special. The Owls run defense looks bad on paper, as they finished 84th giving up 181.8 ypg, but you to keep in mind they played both Navy and Army and actually on average held opponents below their season average. They were also great against the pass, allowing opposing QB's to complete just 58% of their attempts. Give me the Owls -7! 

40* FRISCO BOWL ATS ANNIHILATOR (Louisiana Tech +4)

I like the points here with the Bulldogs against SMU in the Frisco Bowl. The biggest thing here is SMU lost head coach Chad Morris to Arkansas and that's a massive blow to this program. Morris is the main reason that the Mustangs are relevant again. His biggest impact came on the offensive side of the ball and his ability to put that unit in a position to excel. Morris not only won't be calling the plays, but a good chunk of staff left with him for the Razorbacks. Graduate assistant GJ Kinne is being given the reigns as the play caller for this bowl game. I just think it's asking a lot for this offense to not miss a beat with a guy who has never called a game. At the same time, I question the entire motivation of this team in this game. 

As for the Bulldogs, this is a team that we can count on being prepared for this bowl game under head coach Skip Holtz, who has guided LA Tech to 3 straight bowl wins over the last 3 years. One of the impressive things with those wins is how well the offense performed scoring 35, 47 and 48 in those 3 wins. I think they put up another big number here against an awful SMU defense, which was one of the worst in the country this season. The Mustangs ranked 113th against the run (213.3 ypg) and 121st against the pass (273.4 ypg). Give me the Bulldogs +4! 

50* NEW ORLEANS BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Troy -6.5) 

I just think the books are giving North Texas way to much respect here. I thought the same thing in the Mean Green’s last game against FAU in the C-USA title matchup, as they were only an 11-point dog, despite all signs pointing to the Owls winning by 20+. That’s exactly what happened and it could have been a lot worse than the 17-41 final, as FAU led 34-0 in the 2nd half before North Texas finally scored.

For me, I just don’t think this North Texas team is anywhere close to as their record would suggest. However, the fact that they have 9-wins and just played in a conference championship game, they get some love. This was a very fortunate team, as they went a perfect 5-0 in games decided by 7-points or less, with 4 of those coming by a field goal or less. Also, when they did play good teams they struggle to make it competitive. They lost to SMU by 22 and Iowa by 17 in non-conference and also lost by 38 to FAU in the regular season.

While the die-hards know how good this Troy team is, I don’t know that the general public does. The Trojans weren’t far off from going undefeated. They lost their opener at Boise State 13-24 and were in that game until the very end. The other was a loss at home to a bad South Alabama team, but it was a horrible spot for Troy off that huge win over LSU. Since that loss to the Jaguars, they hasn’t looked back, winning 6 straight to close out the year.

North Texas comes in with an offense that looks to be potent on paper, as the Mean Green put up 35.9 ppg (20th) and 467 ypg (18th). A lot of that is who they played, as there’s a lot of bad defenses in C-USA. The best D in the conference was C-USA and they could barely get first downs against them. Not to mention they recently lost one of the best offensive players in running back Jeffery Wilson, who led the team with 1,215 yards and 16 touchdowns (also caught 24 passes).

Troy has a legit defense. The Trojans allowed just 17.5 ppg (11th) and 340.1 ypg (26th). We know they are the real deal by how well they played outside of league play in their two games against Boise State and LSU. On the flip side of all this, we have a not great but pretty good Troy offense against a bad North Texas defense. The Mean Green were abused on the ground, allowing an average of 208.1 ypg (108th). The Trojans are going to be able to put up points here and I just don’t see North Texas matching it to the point where they can keep this within a touchdown. Give me the Trojans -6.5!

40* ARMY/NAVY GAME ATS KNOCKOUT (Navy -2.5) 

It's been 15 years since the last time that Navy came into this game with a chip on their shoulder, as the Midshipmen had won 14 straight prior to last years 17-21 loss to Army. My money is on Navy to get their revenge and avoid losing two straight in the series. While the Black Nights have the better record, the Midshipmen played the tougher schedule. I know Navy closed out the season going just 1-5 in their final 6 games, but it was a brutal stretch that had them play Memphis, Temple, Notre Dame and Houston all on the road, as well as an elite UCF team at home. The big key for me is how Navy was in all of those games. No loss came by more than 10-points, with 3 of those by 8 points or less. A few breaks go their way and I think we would see a 8-3 Navy team be closer to a touchdown favorite here. Give me the Midshipmen -2.5! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Ohio State -5)

As much respect as I have for Wisconsin and what they have been able to accomplish this season, my money here is on Ohio State laying less than touchdown. While the Badgers can’t do anything about the schedule they were dealt, there’s no denying the fact that they have had it easy to this point. Their toughest game all season was at home against Michigan and while they won 24-10, it was a lot closer than the final score would indicate.

Wisconsin now takes a massive step up in competition this Saturday when they face Ohio State and I just have a hard time seeing them keep this one close. Offensively, the Badgers are a team that relies heavily on their ability to run the football. That’s a problem, because this Buckeyes defense is as good a unit against the run when they are on as you will find.

That means in order for Wisconsin to have success offensively, Alex Honibrook and the passing game will need to play a big role. I just don’t see it happening. The Badgers come in ranked 118th out of 130 FBS teams with a mere 182.8 yards/game through the air. So little was asked from Hornibrook that he only attempted more than 20 passes in one conference game. It’s also worth noting that he’s prone to mistakes. Prior to the Minnesota game, where he didn’t throw a pick, he had thrown at least one interception in 8 straight games. I expect him to add at least a couple more picks to his resume against the Buckeyes.

As for the Wisconsin defense, there’s no denying that they are strong on that side of the ball. However, I’m not quite convinced they are as good as the numbers would suggest. Over their 9-game Big Ten schedule the best offense they faced was Northwestern, which finished the year ranked a mere 59th in total offense, averaging 405.2 ypg. Six of their nine opponents ranked 85th or worse, with five 100th or worse. Ohio State is unlike anything they have seen, as the Buckeyes come in 4th in the nation averaging 529.8 ypg and can beat you with both the run (13th, 250.3 ypg) and the pass (27th, 279.5 ypg).

This reminds me a lot from the 2014 season when these two teams played in the Big Ten title game and Ohio State won 59-0 as a mere 4-point favorite. Keep in mind that was with a 3rd string starting at quarterback. It might not be quite that ugly, but I just don’t think it’s asking a lot of the Buckeyes to win here by at least a touchdown. Give me Ohio State -5! 

40* NCAAF SHARP MONEY ATS ANNIHILATOR (Fresno St +9.5)

I would have to take the points here with the Bulldogs against the Broncos. I think this line speaks volumes to how much more a public side Boise State is. Say what you want about last week’s game not meaning anything, Fresno State clearly outplayed the Broncos. Even after losing by a 11-points on the road, there’s those that will be willing to lay the 9-points here with Boise State simply because they trust them more and the game is being played on their home field.

I actually think it works in the Bulldogs favor here. Tedford and his staff can continue to use the disrespect hard to motivate their team, something that has fueled this team all season. Not only will they have the bigger chip on their shoulder, but they just might be the better team.

Fresno State’s defense is the real deal and has only gotten better as the season has moved on. Keep in mind they finished the season ranked 12th, allowing just 17.3 ppg, despite having to play both Alabama and Washington on the road in non-conference play.

One thing the Bulldogs did extremely well in the game last week against Boise State is shutdown the Broncos ground game. Fresno State held Boise to just 107 yards on 31 attempts (3.5 yard/carry). I like their chances of keeping the Broncos run game in check again and it’s a lot easier to play defense when you know the opponent can only beat you with the pass.

It wasn’t just the defense that shined, the Bulldogs put up 431 yards on a good Boise State defense. The Broncos simply didn’t have an answer for junior quarterback Marcu McCaryion, who threw for 332 yards and 2 scores, while also adding 27 yards on the ground. His favorite target was KeeSean Johnson, who had 6 catches for 119 yards and both of McCaryion’s touchdown passes. Jamire Jordan was also a factor, catching four passes for 91 yards.

The ability to attack this Broncos secondary is not only key to keeping this close enough on the road to cover, but it keeps open the backdoor if Boise happens to get off to a strong start. With all that said, I think Fresno State has an excellent shot at winning this game and simply feel that getting over a touchdown is a gift you can’t pass up on. Give me the Bulldogs +9.5!

50* NCAAF BIG 12 CONF CHAMP GAME OF THE MONTH (TCU +7.5)

I just feel like this is too big a number for TCU to be catching in a game they are more than capable of winning outright. Keep in mind that in that first meeting in Norman, Oklahoma closed as just a 5.5-point favorite. Based off that line, the Sooners would have only been around a 3-point favorite at that time on a neutral field.

There’s a couple of reasons the line has jumped so much from then to now. One is the outcome of the first game, where Oklahoma was in complete control from the start and won by 18. The other is the books know that based on that first outcome and how well the Sooners have been playing, the public is going to be on Oklahoma here.

I personally don’t think the line should be closer to what it would have been a few weeks back with the Sooners around a 2.5 to 3-point favorite. With that said, there’s simply too much value here with TCU to pass up.

I know the game was basically over at the half in the first meeting, but I think there’s a lot to be said about how the 2nd half played out. TCU’s defense, which didn’t play up to their potential in the 1st half, held Oklahoma scoreless over the final two quarters. I believe that’s something they can build on going into the rematch and let’s not forget this Horned Frogs defense has been one of the best in the country this season.

The other big key here is where this game is being played. While I expect a pretty even amount of fans from both sides, it’s a whole different story playing a team on a neutral field than it is on their home field. Oklahoma has only lost 8 times over the last 11 years on their home field, so for them to win at home in the first meeting shouldn’t have been a huge surprise.

Lastly, I like the fact that all the pressure is on the Sooners in this game. Even with a win here the Horned Frogs likely don’t have a path to the playoffs. Oklahoma on the other hand is likely in with a win. So not only is TCU going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder as they try to get revenge, they should be the more relaxed of the two teams in this matchup. Like I said earlier, I think the Horned Frogs have an excellent shot at wining this game and a great chance of keeping it closer than expected. Give me TCU +7.5!

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (FAU -11)

I don’t typically love taking the favorite in these same season revenge games, but I just think there’s more than enough here to feel pretty confident with backing the Owls. Note that this line has already jumped quite a bit, as FAU opened as a 8.5-point favorite. I wouldn’t be surprised if ended up closer to 14 by the time kickoff comes around.

A lot can change over a little time in college football and just because FAU dominated North Texas a little over a month ago, it doesn’t mean it will happen again. However, I think there’s a good chance this one isn’t close. The Owls simply did whatever they wanted offensively against the Mean Green, racking up a ridiculous 804 yards and 37 first downs. They scored on their first 11 possessions, which is absurd. Chances are they won’t be as dominant, but they don’t need to win here by two touchdowns.

The biggest thing for me is the injuries that North Texas has suffered leading up this rematch. The biggest being the loss of running back Jeffery Wilson, who leads the team with 1,215 yards and 16 touchdowns. On top of that, they could also be without wide out Jalen Guyton, who is questionable with a concussion. Guyton leads the team with 758 receiving yards and 9 touchdown catches. Even if Guyton is able to play, the loss of Wilson is going to make it tough for the Mean Green to keep pace. Backup Nic Smith did have 178 yards last week against Rice, but Rice’s defense is horrible. Smith got 8 carries in the first meeting with FAU and only had 25 yards (3.1 yards/carry).

One of the ways that North Texas could have kept this one closer than the first meeting is to establish the run and try to control the time of possession to limit the chances for FAU’s offense. I just don’t see them being able to do that with Wilson out o the picture. The Mean Green have no choice here but to try and go score for score with the Owls and I just don’t see them being able to keep pace over 4 quarters.

It’s also worth noting that North Texas has a history of not doing well against the spread in games that are expected to be high-scoring, as they are just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 with a total of 63 or more. They also have had a hard time keeping it close on the road against high-powered offenses like FAU, as they are just 4-16 ATS in their last 20 road games against teams who average 425 or more yards/game and have lost these contests on average by 25.1 ppg. Give me the Owls -11!

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SHOCKER (ULM +27)

This play comes down to the fact that I don't think Florida State has any interest in playing this game. What's been an absolute miserable season for a team that came in thinking they were legit national title contenders got even worse when head coach Jimbo Fisher decided it was time to pack up and head to the SEC, as he just accepted the head coaching job at Texas A&M.

I know they are just 1-win from being bowl eligible, but fighting for a crappy bowl game isn't something programs like FSU get all that excited about. In fact, I'm not convinced this team wants this season to last any longer than it has and if that's the case, they not only won't cover this huge spread, they could lose the game outright. 

I just feel that the line here doesn't factor into account the lack of motivation for Florida State and is set more based on what you would expect if this was the middle of the season. It's also worth noting that while the Seminoles could struggle to find an excuse to get pumped up for this one, the Warhawks are going to show up to play. ULM is just 4-7 and this is their last game no matter what. Even though FSU is down, this is still a potentially program changing win for the Warhawks. I think they treat this like their bowl game and at worst give the Seminoles a legit scare here. Give me ULM +27! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Memphis +7.5)

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Notre Dame -2.5) 

I believe the value here is with the Irish laying less than a field goal against the Cardinal. Notre Dame’s playoff hopes took a huge hit with their loss to Miami. I wasn’t the least bit surprised to see them struggle against Navy last week, in fact, I was all over the Midshipmen in that spot.

The key here that even though it’s a bit of a long-shot, Notre Dame is not out of the playoff picture just yet and I believe that’s the key to backing the Irish in this contest. If Notre Dame was completely out of it, there’s no chance I would take them on the road against a good Stanford team, but with a shot I think they not only win, but win comfortably.

I know the Cardinal just recently knocked off Washington at home, which was a great win, I just don’t think this team is as good as people think. That win over the Huskies is their only win against a top tier opponent. One thing that stands out to me is that both of these teams played USC and the results were the complete opposite. Stanford lost 24-42 to the Trojans, while Notre Dame dominated USC 49-14.

The two teams that were able to beat the Irish this season were Georgia and Miami, who are two of the best defenses in the country when it comes to stopping the run. Simply put, if Notre Dame can’t run the ball, the offense has a hard time moving the ball, as Brandon Wimbush just isn’t that polished of a passer.

This is not your usual dominant Stanford defense. In fact, it’s one of the worst in recent memory. One of their biggest struggles has been stopping the run, as they are giving up 171.7 ypg and 4.7 yards/carry. The last time that Stanford allowed more than 170 rushing yards/game was in 2006 when they finished 1-11. I look for Wimbush and star running back Josh Adams to make life miserable for the Notre Dame defense.

The other big key here is that Stanford’s offense is all about their ability to get Bryce Love going, but he’s just not been the same player since he suffered an ankle injury in the win over Oregon back in the middle of October. He might break one big run, but overall I look for the Irish to key on him and force Stanford to try and move the ball through the air. At the same time, I think Notre Dame still has an excellent shot at winning here even if Love has a big game, as I just don’t think their defense will be able to keep the Irish in check. Give me Notre Dame -2.5!

40* NCAAF VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Arizona St +2)

This is a much improved Arizona State team from last year and I’ve backed them numerous times over the last couple months with a lot of success. They continued to be undervalued by the books and are now 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.

Revenge is a big time motivator at the college level and there’s no doubt that the Sun devils have had their eyes set on revenge against in-state rival Arizona after last year’s embarrassing 21-point loss. I look for Arizona State to not only win here, but to win convincingly.

One of the reasons the Wildcats get a ton of love from the books, is everyone is drawn to the big numbers of Arizona quarterback Khalil Tate, who has rushed for 1,325 yards and 11 touchdowns. Tate is certainly fun to watch, but he was held in check last week by the Ducks, as he had just 32 yards on 14 carries. Look for Arizona State to try and use the same game plan that Oregon used to slow down Tate in this one.

Even if Tate has a big game, I still like the Sun Devils chances here to get the cover. That’s because Arizona State’s offense should be able to score at will here against a Arizona defense that is dealing with a number of injuries. The Wildcats lost 3 different defensive lineman to injury in last week’s game against Oregon and have several other defensive players either questionable or out for the year.

Arizona does have a 3-2 record on the road this season, but could very easily be 1-4, as they have a 3-point win at Colorado and mere 1-point victory at Cal. The only legit win came against an awful UTEP team, while the other two were blowout losses to USC and Oregon. Adding to this, is the fact that this will be the Wildcats second straight on the road and 3rd road game in their last 4 overall. That’s not an easy thing to overcome this late in the season.

Arizona is just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 road games in the 2nd half of the season and a mere 2-13 ATS in their last 15 vs a team like Arizona State, who is averaging more than 32 minutes of possession and 21+ first downs per game. The Sun Devils on the other hand are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games played on Saturday and 34-18 ATS in their last 52 at home against a conference opponent. Not only is the home team 4-0 SU in the last 4 meetings in this series, but they are also a perfect 4-0 ATS. Give me Arizona State +2!

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Minnesota +18) 

All those questions everyone had about whether or not Wisconsin was good enough to make the playoffs have quieted, as the Badgers have rolled off 3 straight impressive wins over Indiana (45-17), Iowa (38-14) and Michigan (24-10). Now everyone is all over Wisconsin, as the perception here is they will make easy work of the Golden Gophers. 

This Minnesota team hasn't performed like some were expecting in P.J. Fleck's first season, but they aren't going to go down without a fight, especially with the Gophers needing 1 more win to become bowl eligible. I look for Minnesota to come out like this is their Super Bowl and while it might not be enough to get the win, I think they put a huge scare into the Badgers and keep this well within the number. 

This being at home is huge for the Gophers, as I expect a rowdy crowd for this one and there's no question that Minnesota has played much better at home this year. The other big key here is that the Gophers have the defense to keep Wisconsin from running up the score. Minnesota is 28th in the country, giving up just 337 yards/game. That drops down to 322 ypg when they are at home. They also give up just 18.2 ppg at home and are holding teams to just 3.9 yards/carry against the run. I think this is a very similar defense to the one of Purdue, maybe even slightly better and the Boilermakers lost 9-17 on the road to Wisconsin. Wouldn't shock me if the Badgers struggled to score more than the spread. Give me the Gophers +18! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Georgia Tech +12) 

I'll gladly take 12 points with the Yellow Jackets at home against in-state rival Georgia. I think we are seeing a big overreaction here to how these two teams fared a week ago. The Bulldogs defeated Kentucky 42-13 and covered as a 24-point favorite. That was a lot closer game late than the final score would indicate, as it was only 13-21 midway through the 3rd quarter.

Georgia Tech on the other hand lost 20-43 at Duke as a 7-point favorite. That loss looks bad, but that was a tough spot for the Yellow Jackets off a big win at home as a dog against Virginia Tech and knowing they had this game against their rival on deck. I just don't think Georgia Tech had the right mindset going into that game and it shows with the fact that they allowed a season-high 319 rushing yards to a pretty sub-par Blue Devils offense. I expect to see a completely different mentality and focus for the Yellow Jackets in this one. 

The one thing we learned with Georgia in their loss to Auburn, is that if you can take away their running game the offense has a hard time moving the ball. I don't know that they can do what Auburn did to this Bulldogs offense, but I think they can hold their own. The Yellow Jackets come in ranked 29th in the country, giving up just 343 yards/game and have held their opponents to an average of just 95 yards and 3.1 yards/carry at home, where they are a perfect 5-0 SU on the season. I also think the triple-option has some success against the Georgia defense, allowing them to keep this close and potentially pull off the upset. Give me the Yellow Jackets +12! 

50* NCAAF RIVALRY GAME OF THE MONTH (Virginia +7.5) 

Bronco Mendenhall has done a tremendous job turning around this Virginia program, as he's already got them bowl eligible after they won just 2-games his first year on the job. He can really put a positive note on this season with a win over their rivals, as Virginia Tech has won the Commonwealth Cup 13 straight times. 

The Hokies just haven't been the same in year two under Justin Fuente and have struggled down the stretch. Virginia Tech is just 1-2 over their last 3 and have failed to cover 3 straight. While the Hokies have put up strong defensive numbers, I think they have a tough time containing Virginia's high-powered passing attack led by senior Kurt Benkert, who has thrown for nearly 3,000 yards with a 25-8 TD-INT ratio. 

The other huge factor here is that this game is being played at Scott Stadium under the lights on ESPN. The atmosphere in Charlottesville will be electric as the Cavaliers believe they got a shot at the upset. Win or lose, I see this one coming right down to the wire. Give me Virginia +7.5! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (USF +10)

It's almost as if people forgot about how good this South Florida team is. Not to take anything away from UCF, but this is just too big of a number for them to be laying against the best team they have faced all season. Not only do I think the Bulls are capable of keeping this close enough to cover, but I think there's a good chance to win the game outright and spoil the Knights quest for a perfect season. 

For the most part this season UCF has simply been able to just outscore their opponent, but that won't be so easy against the Bulls. USF not only has a high-powered offense that can go score for score with the Knights, but they are also a lot better defensively than they get credit for. The Bulls are only giving up 19.9 ppg and I think they are better than that, as they haven't exactly had to give their best effort in a lot of their games because of how lopsided the matchup was. 

UCF is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Bulls on the other hand have stepped up against the better competition going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Give me South Florida +10! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS KNOCKOUT (Houston -4.5) 

I'll lay the points here with the Cougars at home against the Midshipmen. I just think this is a tough spot for Navy after that big game against Notre Dame, where they had the No. 8 team in the country on the ropes. I know they have a week off after this game against Houston, but I also think it will be hard for the Midshipmen to not look ahead to their huge rivalry game against Army, which means a little more than normal after last year’s loss to the Black Knights.

As for Houston, I look for a big bounce back effort here after laying an egg on the road against Tulane last week. The Cougars will also be out for revenge, plus have a little extra motivation here with this being their final home game of the season (senior day).

The big key here is I believe Houston has the talent up front to really cause problems for Navy’s triple-option attack and it all starts with star sophomore defensive lineman Ed Oliver, who has helped guide the Cougars to the 39th ranked run defense, giving up just 142.7 yards/game. Note that last week they held Tulane, who is currently 22nd in the country at 237 rushing yards/game to just 166 yards on 47 attempts (only 3.5 yards/carry).

If they can keep the Midshipmen from running at will, it’s going to keep Navy from controlling the clock and let Houston’s offense pick apart a weak Navy defense. If the Cougars can get their offense going early, this could turn into a bit of a blowout, as the Midshipmen aren’t built to play from behind. Give me Houston -4.5! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Mississippi St -14.5) 

I would typically look to back the underdog in a rivalry game like we have here in what is known as the Egg Bowl, but I just don't see how Ole Miss keeps this game close. Sure, they haven't had anything to play because of a self-imposed postseason ban. I'm not saying that the Rebels won't show up for this one. That's not a doubt. I just don't think they are good enough to keep it close. 

You don't think this team wanted to beat Alabama when they played them? The Crimson Tide destroyed them 66-3. They also had a 21 point loss to Auburn and 16 points defeat at home to LSU. Those are the only 3 ranked teams they played and they weren't competitive in any of those. 

Mississippi State is just a step below the elite of the SEC, which in my opinion is Alabama, Auburn and Georgia. Right there with LSU. The Bulldogs had some struggles on the road against Georgia and Auburn early in the year, but those came on the road and this is a much better team at this point in the season, which is evident of their upset win over Alabama a few weeks back. 

While they did just fail to cover as a near two-touchdown favorite last week at Arkansas, they just didn't have the same fire coming off that loss against the Crimson Tide. They won't be lacking it against Ole Miss. 

Offensively the Bulldogs should have a field day, as the Rebels have had all kinds of problems stopping the run and slowing down dual-threat quarterbacks. Ole Miss does have some talent on offense, but this is a top tier Mississippi State defense that is going to feed off the home crowd under the lights in a prime time game. I think they can hold the Rebels to 21 or less, while scoring close to 40. Give me the Bulldogs -14.5! 

40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT ATS SLAUGHTER (Oregon PK)

I think we are getting some great value here with the Ducks at just a pick’em on their home field in a prime time night game on Saturday. I think a lot of people will be inclined to back Arizona here, as they have been the much better team of late. The Wildcats are 5-1 in their last 6 games with the only loss coming at USC. Oregon on the other hand is 1-4 in their last 5 with the only win coming at home against Utah.

My biggest concern here with the Wildcats is a lack of motivation, as there’s really not a lot at stake for Arizona. With USC’s win over Colorado last week, Arizona no longer has a shot at the Pac-12 South title. I think they could find it difficult to get up for an Oregon team that hasn’t been playing well, especially given that they got their huge in-state rivalry game against Arizona State on deck next week.

As for Oregon, they still need 1 more win to become bowl eligible, something that’s a bigger deal than normal given they didn’t qualify last year and are in the first season of new head coach Willie Taggart. I also think we get a very motivated Ducks team off of their bye after how poorly they played in their last game against Washington.

However, the biggest reason that I like the Ducks, is I feel there’s an excellent chance we see starting quarterback Justin Herbert return from injury. Some thought he was going to return in their last game against the Huskies, but it didn’t happen. While nothing is official, he was practicing with the first team during the bye week and Taggart mentioned in his press conference on Monday that he’s really close and hopeful that he’s going to be ready to play.

My money is on him playing and with him this is a completely different Oregon offense. Herbert had completed 68.3% of his attempts for 1,264 yards and 9 touchdowns (only 2 picks) before getting hurt. Backup Braxton Burmeister in comparison has thrown for 324 yards in 5 games, 4 starts.

If by chance Herbert doesn’t play, I still like the Ducks here, as they bring a potent rushing attack to the table, which is currently ranked 11th in the country at 255.2 ypg. Arizona just allowed 151 to a horrible Oregon State ground game last week and the week prior gave up 331 rushing yards to USC.

I also think the bye week is going to pay off huge for Oregon’s defense, which will have two weeks to put together a game-plan to slow down the Wildcats Khalil Tate. Note that the Ducks strength defensively has been stopping the run, as they are 30th against the run (130.5 ypg) compared to 98th against the pass (249.2 ypg).

Oregon is also a profitable 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games off a bye, while Arizona is just 3-12 ATS under Rich Rodriguez in road games off a cover and 0-6 ATS under Rodriguez in road games after scoring 31 or more points in 3 straight games. Give me the Ducks!

40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS BLOWOUT (Texas A&M +3)

Not only does Texas A&M have revenge on their minds from last year’s loss to Ole Miss, but they are the only team with something to play for down the stretch. Ole Miss is not eligible for postseason play, as they self-imposed a one-year ban.

It’s a big reason why the Rebels are just 5-5 with only 2 wins in SEC play. Keep in mind those two wins both came against teams out of the East in Kentucky and Vanderbilt. They are 0-3 against teams from the West, including a loss at home to Arkansas, which to this point is the Razorback’s only conference win.

I just have a hard time seeing Ole Miss matching the Aggies intensity in this one given the circumstances, especially with their huge in-state rivalry game against Mississippi State on deck.

While Texas A&M is just 3-3 in league play, all 3 of their losses have come against top teams out of the West in Alabama, Auburn and Mississippi State. I just feel they are the much better team in this matchup and actually would have them favored.

The biggest factor here for me is I can only trust one of these teams to get stops on the defensive side of the ball and that’s Texas A&M. Ole Miss has been atrocious on defense this year, as they come in 112th in points allowed at 35.6 ppg and are 118th in total defense, giving up 454.2 ypg. In comparison, the Aggies are only giving up 27.5 ppg and are a respectable 39th in total defense, allowing just 367.2 ypg.

Ole Miss is just 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games played in November, 3-8-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Give me the Aggies +3! 

50* NCAAF *BIG TEN* GAME OF THE MONTH (Purdue +8)

I'll take the points with the Boilermakers in this one. Purdue is a team that I have been on quite a bit this season and a big reason for that is the big improvements I was expecting under new head coach Jeff Brohm. While the wins have been tough to come by of late, this team could easily be sitting at 6-4 and 4-3 in league play. They only lost at Wisconsin by a final of 9-17 and have two conference defeats by a combined 3 points against Rutgers and Nebraska.

Not only do I think Purdue has a good chance of keeping this within the number, I wouldn’t be shocked if they won this game outright. That’s because this is not an ideal spot for Iowa coming off those two huge games against Ohio State and Wisconsin. Not to mention a big rivalry game on deck to close out the year at Nebraska looming next Friday. I just think it’s going to be hard for them to give the Boilermakers their full attention, especially given how lopsided the series has been.

Purdue on the other hand should lay it all on the line in this one. Sitting at 4-6, the Boilermakers need to win their final two games to become bowl eligible. Getting to a bowl game is a big deal for this team, as they haven’t been to one since 2012.

The other thing here is Iowa is a team that more times than not find themselves in close games and rarely do they blow teams out unless there’s a big gap in talent. I just don’t think Purdue is one of those teams that they have a massive edge against.

Lastly, there’s a good chance this is a low-scoring game, which makes the points that much more valuable. Sure Iowa put up 55 in their last home against Ohio State, but after watching the Buckeyes thrashing of Michigan State, I think that was clearly more of Ohio State not showing up to play. After their 14-points against Wisconsin, all via the defense, the Hawkeyes have now scored 17 or fewer points in 5 of their 7 Big Ten games. The only other exception against the worst team in the league in Illinois.

This is also a spot Iowa has struggled in, as they are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. On the flip side of this, Purdue is 10-2-2 ATS in their last 14 road games against a team with a winning home record. Give me the Boilermakers +8! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP PLAY (Navy +18) 

You can never be quite sure how a team will respond to a loss like the one Notre Dame suffered, but more times than not those teams struggle to play up to their potential the next time out. Especially in a situation like this, where the loss for the Irish all but eliminated them from a chance to make the 4-team playoff. Not only do I think it has Navy showing some great value here as a 3-score underdog, but I believe it gives them a legit shot at pulling off the upset.

While Notre Dame could find it difficult to pick themselves up off the mat, Navy is going to come out guns blazing against a what’s likely to be a Top 10 opponent. Not to mention they will be playing with a ton of confidence after that thrilling win over SMU.

Another thing here is that the Midshipmen are better than they get credit for. Their largest loss all season is by just 10-points at home against a very good UCF team and they were right there down just a field goal with less than 5 minutes to play. They also have a mere 3-point loss at Memphis who is a Top 20 team.

Navy is also a team that’s built to keep games close with their triple-option attack that eats up the clock and limits the opposing teams number of possessions. It’s also a very difficult offense to prepare for and you have to wonder just how motivated the Irish players are going to be in practice this week. If Notre Dame doesn’t come in with the right state of mind, Navy is going to torment that defense from start to finish.

Midshipmen are an impressive 30-18 ATS in their last 48 when listed as an underdog and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 off a home win by 3-points or less. The Irish on the other hand are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games against similar teams to Navy, who are a run first team (average 125 or less passing yards/game). Give me the Midshipmen +18! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Virginia +19)

As good as Miami looked against Notre Dame, this is a tricky spot for the Hurricanes. For most of this season Miami has been the team flying under the radar. They also had a chip on their shoulder as everyone kept doubting them. Now the roles have been reversed. Everyone is singing the Hurricanes praises and while the college football playoff rankings aren’t out just yet, they are up to No. 2 in both the AP and Coaches Polls.

This is the ideal letdown spot for Miami, as that win over the Irish was the biggest in quite some time for this program and no one is expecting Virginia to be a serious threat. As much as head coach Mark Richt will try to keep his team focused at the task at hand, it’s going to be very hard for the Hurricanes to do just that.

I’m not saying the Cavaliers are going to win this game outright, but I think they can do enough here to keep it within the number. Let’s not forget this Miami team has had several close calls this season. Not only did they have the two miraculous last-second wins over both FSU and Georgia Tech, but they also only beat the likes of Syracuse by 8 and North Carolina by 5.

I also think Virginia poses a difficult matchup. One of the reasons the Hurricanes were able to shutdown Notre Dame’s offense is the Irish didn’t have anything to fall back on when the running game wasn’t working. The Cavaliers likely aren’t going to have much success on the ground either, but senior quarterback Kent Benkert and this offense feature a potent passing attack. I believe it’s good enough to move the ball and put some pressure on this defense, it also keeps open the possibility of a backdoor cover if things do happen to get out of hand early.

Another thing is this Miami offense is still a work in progress. While they scored 41 against the Irish, they only put up 374 total yards in that game. The defense was as big a part of the offense than anything, as they had just 1 scoring drive more than 60 yards, with 4 scoring drives that started with the offense getting the ball on the Irish side of the field. Keep in mind that the Hurricanes had scored 28 or fewer points in each of their previous 5 games.

One last thing is this ridiculous rate that Miami is creating turnovers is simply not sustainable and there’s going to come a time when the breaks just don’t go their way. With a defense that figures to just be going through the motions off that big win, this could be the week they don’t rack up the turnovers and that not only would give Virginia a great shot at covering, but potentially pulling off the upset. Give me the Cavaliers +19! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS KNOCKOUT (Mississippi St -11.5)

I typically wouldn’t look to back a team like the Bulldogs off such a crushing loss in a big game, but I have a lot of faith in head coach Dan Mullen and his staff to get his team to bounce back with a big time effort. In fact, I believe that performance against Alabama will only add to the confidence of this Mississippi State team, who has had a chip on their shoulder from the start after getting picked by most experts to finish last in the SEC West. Not only are they not going to finish last, but they have a chance at a 10-win season if they can win their last two and their bowl game.

The other big thing here is this isn’t a good Arkansas team. The Razorbacks only win inside conference play came against Ole Miss, who is basically just going through the motions with no shot at postseason play. Arkansas is getting outscored in conference play by more than 20 ppg and have been no match against the top teams.

I also think it’s important to point out that LSU was in a very similar spot to Mississippi State, as they had just lost the week before to Alabama. That would have been an easy spot for the Tigers to lay down and yet they won the game by 23 points. Another factor that will get overlooked with the Bulldogs off that loss to the Crimson Tide is the revenge angle that Mississippi State has after last year’s loss to the Razorbacks.

The matchup is also one that I think favors the Bulldogs. Mississippi State’s defense has been outstanding outside of their 3 games against Auburn, Georgia and Alabama, who are easily the 3 best teams in the SEC. Even if the defense slips, the offense should be able to carry the load and do enough to get a win here by at least two touchdowns. Arkansas’ defense has been non-existent in SEC games this season, as the Razorbacks are allowing 43.5 ppg and have allowed at least 33 in all 6 of their conference games.

Arkansas is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs a team with a winning record and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. On the flip side of this, we see that Mississippi State is a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons when coming off a home loss. Give me the Bulldogs -11.5!

50* NCAAF *AAC* GAME OF THE MONTH (Temple +14) 

I love the Owls in this spot. UCF is a great team but because of their great start against the spread are way overvalued right now. I not only think they have a hard time covering this number against Temple, but I wouldn't be shocked if their perfect season came crashing to an end on Saturday. 

The Owls have been a different team since Frank Nutile took over as the starting quarterback. He's started just 3 games and already has 883 passing yards and is completing 65% of his attempts with a 6-3 TD-INT ratio. UCF has been exposed through the air on multiple occasions and I think his ability to make plays gives the Owls a great shot at the upset here. 

This is also a horrible spot for UCF. While they can see Temple has been playing better, they have already had the game next week at home against USF circled on the calendar. I just don't think they are going to have the right mindset here and it only gets harder to play up to your true potential when you get this deep in the schedule without a loss. One thing is for sure and that's the Owls are going to lay everything they have on the line here and that should be enough for them to cash a winning ticket. Give me Temple +14! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Buffalo -20.5)

I don’t know how you could even think about backing Ball State in this one. The Cardinal have shown no reason to think they can keep a game competitive. Their smallest margin of defeat inside MAC play is a 28-point loss at Akron. The other 5 have all come by at least 42 points. It’s really not asking a lot for Buffalo to win here by 3 touchdowns.

I believe that part of the reason we aren’t seeing a bigger spread is because the Bulls come into this game with a losing record at 4-6 and are just 2-4 in conference play. However, Buffalo’s not as bad as you might think. All 6 of their losses have come by 10-points or less, with 4 of them by 4-points or less. The Bulls could very easily have 7 wins right now and I think that’s how you have to treat them.

The big concern anytime you have a bad team like Ball State is the opponent not giving their full attention. I don’t see that being a problem. Not only are the Bulls going to be out for revenge from last year’s loss to the Cardinals (lost 3 straight overall), but they have to win out to become bowl eligible. Note that getting to a bowl is a big deal, as they haven’t been since 2013 and only been twice in program history.

Buffalo should also have zero problem here putting up a big number offensively. The Bulls come in 44th in the country 427 yards/game, behind a potent passing attack that ranks 24th at 285 yards/game. Not only will they be able throw it all over the Cardinals, but they should be able to run it at will, as Ball State has allowed 220+ rushing yards in each of their last 4 games.

At the same time, the Cardinals offer no threat of scoring when they have the ball. Ball State has scored 17 or fewer points in every single MAC game this season and Buffalo is no slouch defensively, as they have held 7 of their 10 opponents to 24 or less points. Give me the Bulls -20.5!

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Miami-OH -3) 

My money is on the RedHawks here at what I feel is a great line to back them given the circumstances. Miami (OH) is sitting at 4-6 and need to win their final 2 games to become bowl eligible. Given they got a gimmie win on deck against a horrible Ball State team, it really all comes down to this game for the RedHawks. That means we are going to get the very best this team has to offer and it only helps that they just recently got back starting quarterback Gus Ragland, who threw 3 TD's in last weeks' 10-point win over Akron, which looks a lot better after what the Zips did to Ohio last night. 

Eastern Michigan is a good team, much better than their 3-7 record, as they have 6 losses by a touchdown or less. The key here is that last week's loss to Central Michigan eliminated them from postseason play and now they have nothing to play for. I just don't see the Eagles matching the intensity of Miami in this one and wouldn't be shocked if this turned into a blowout. Give me the RedHawks -3! 

100* NCAAF *MAC* GAME OF THE YEAR (Ohio -13)

This game is for 1st place in the MAC East. No surprise here to see Ohio listed as the favorite, but by 13 on the road. I think this line is begging for you to take the home dog in this weekday game and it makes me like Ohio that much more. I'm also not buying any talk on the Bobcats suffering a letdown after their huge win over Toledo. This game is for the right to play in the MAC Championship Game. The Bobcats are coming to play. 

I think that's all we need here, as Akron is lucky to be in this spot. Two of their conference wins are against bad teams in Bowling Green and Ball State. They also have two 1-point wins over Buffalo and Western Michigan. Note they are the only team to 56 or more points against Ball State (scored 31) and the only to not win by 40 or more (won by 28). They also only outgained Ball State by 7 total yards . That's the only game against a FBS opponent where they won the yardage battle (ougained by 100 or more in 6 games, 200+ in 3). 

I also think it's important to note that this Ohio team has only gotten better as the season has progressed. Evident by their complete domination of a not just good but great Toledo team in their last game. Prior to that they beat Miami (OH) 45-28, Kent St (48-3) and Bowling Green (48-30). This is also not a fluke, as they were picked to win the division. I think this gets ugly. Give me the Bobcats -13! 

50* NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Notre Dame -3)

Miami head coach Mark Richt has done an amazing job getting the Hurricanes back in the national spotlight, but I think their perfect season comes to a crashing end on Saturday. In fact, I actually think we are getting some great value here with Notre Dame only laying a field goal.

Not to take anything away from the Hurricanes, who are a really good team, I believe the Irish are an elite team. Whether or not you agree likely depends on how a big a believer you are in Georgia, who handed Notre Dame their only loss of the season. I agree with the playoff committee and feel the Bulldogs are the best team in the country and given it took a late field goal for Georgia to beat Notre Dame 20-19, I feel Notre has to be treated like they are in the same class.

Let’s also not forget the Irish have not just beaten some other great teams, but won convincingly against them. That includes a 38-18 win at Michigan State, 49-14 win at home over USC and a 35-14 win at home over NC State. I don’t feel that Miami is in that same class. The Hurricanes could just as easily be 6-2, as they had miracle wins against both FSU and Georgia Tech. I also don’t think the win over Virginia Tech is as big a statement as others. In fact, I had Miami in that game, and a big reason why was I thought the Hokies were overrated.

I also like the matchup here. As good as Miami has been defensively, they haven’t seen anything close to what they are going to see from an offensive line like they will on Saturday from Notre Dame. This defense has pushed a lot of their opponents around and I think they have a hard time dealing with the fact that it’s them that’s getting pushed around on the field. As for Notre Dame’s defense, it is really good too and they do a really good job of not allowing the big plays and those big plays are really all that’s kept Miami’s offense from blowing this perfect season. Give me Notre Dame -3.

40* BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS BLOWOUT (TCU +7) 

I actually like TCU to win this game outright, but I'll gladly take the points as some added insurance. There’s several different factors here that make me like the Horned Frogs, but the biggest of them all is only one of these two teams plays defense and that’s TCU. As great as the Sooners win over Oklahoma State looks, they lose that game if the Cowboys have any sort of defense, as Oklahoma’s stop unit gave up 661 total yards, 32 first downs and 52 points in the victory.

While TCU has scored just 31-points in their last two games combined, it’s came against two of the better defensive teams in the Big 12 in Texas and Iowa State. Don’t let that fool you into thinking this team can’t produce on the offensive side of the ball. The Horned Frogs are still averaging a healthy 35.8 ppg and are more than capable of exposing this Oklahoma defense.

I also think it’s important to point out that Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are two very similar teams and we have already seen TCU make easy work of the Cowboys on the road. The Horned Frogs defeated Oklahoma State 44-31 on the road back in late September and it really wasn’t that close, as TCU had a 37-17 with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter.

As for the Horned Frogs defense, they are the exact opposite of what you have grown to see from Big 12 teams. TCU is giving up just 13.9 ppg, which is the 6th best mark in the country. They also rank 6th in total defense, allowing just 284.1 ppg. In their last 4 games they have allowed a whopping 27 points. Oklahoma hasn’t allowed fewer than 24 points in a single Big 12 game.

You don’t normally think of teams suffering a letdown in a game of this magnitude, but I think it’s asking a lot out of the Sooners to bounce back from that emotional roller-coaster win last week against their in-state rivals. I know they are at home, but it reminds me a lot of the spot Ohio State was just in this past week and their horrible showing against Iowa after their emotional win over Penn State.

Another thing I love here is just how little respect TCU is getting in this matchup and don’t think for a second they don’t know they are a touchdown dog here. Keep in mind that Horned Frogs head coach Gary Patterson has got his teams to play well in this role, as TCU is 30-19 ATS under Patterson when listed as an underdog. Horned Frogs are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Give me TCU +7!

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR Mississippi St +14

I’m anticipating the public will be all over Alabama in this one, but my money is on the Bulldogs catching two touchdowns at home. I know Mississippi State had a couple of clunkers earlier this season against two of the top SEC teams in Georgia and Auburn, losing 31-3 to the Bulldogs and 49-10 to the Tigers. The big reason I’m not investing a ton into those games is they both came on the road and Mississippi State has righted the ship with 4 straight wins, including an impressive 35-14 victory at Texas A&M prior to their game against UMass.

As for the poor showing against the Minutemen, that was to be expected off that big game against the Aggies and knowing they had Alabama at home on deck. I expect the very best the Bulldogs have to offer, as I don’t think there’s any doubt that this team believes they can knock off the Crimson Tide.

The biggest factor here for Mississippi State is that this is a home night game in prime time on ESPN. The cow bells will be out in full force, as the atmosphere at Davis Wade Stadium is going to be electric. I believe that gives the Bulldogs a fighting chance to win the game. It also doesn’t hurt that they are catching Alabama off their huge showdown last week at LSU. It’s the perfect spot for Mississippi State to pick off the SEC frontrunners.

I also like the matchup here for the Bulldogs, as they have the talent, depth and playmakers on the defensive side of the ball, much like LSU, to give this Alabama offense fits. As we saw last week against the Tigers (only 116 rushing yards), if you can keep the Crimson Tide from running at will, you can keep their entire offense in check.

I’m not expecting a ton of fireworks from the Mississippi State offense against this top notch Alabama defense, but I think they can score enough to keep this within the number. If there’s been a weakness for the Crimson Tide defense under Saban, it’s mobile quarterbacks that can extend plays with their legs. The Bulldogs have one of the better dual-threat QB’s in the country in Nick Fitzgerald, who leads the team in rushing with 801 yards and has also scored a team-high 12 rushing touchdowns. Give me the Bulldogs +14!

50* VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Georgia Tech +3)

When you get to this late in the season, you have to pay attention to what’s left for teams to play for. I believe it’s critical when handicapping this matchup and has the Yellow Jackets showing some great value here as a home dog.

Georgia Tech is sitting at 4-4 on the season and if they want to become bowl eligible, they have to win 2 of their last 3. Given one of those is a likely loss to in-state rival Georgia, this game against the Hokies is one they absolutely have to have. I think playing an extra game means something to Paul Johnson and his players. I expect a big time effort here from the Yellow Jackets at home against one of their Coastal rivals.

The same motivation simply isn’t there for Virginia Tech. While you could say the Hokies are going to be motivated for revenge from last year’s loss to Georgia Tech, I’m not buying it. Last week’s game against Miami was for 1st place in the Coastal Division. Not only did Va Tech lose, but the defeat eliminated them from any chance of defending their division title. That’s a tough pill to swallow and either way I would have expected some kind of letdown here after the big game against the Hurricanes.

I think it only makes matters worse for Virginia Tech that they have to go up against the triple-option attack of Georgia Tech, which is very difficult to prepare for on a short week of rest. To stop the option you have to be 100% locked in and have a very discipline approach. I just have a hard time seeing the Hokies players being fully invested in practice this week. At the same time, Va Tech’s defense has had their struggles against the run away from home, as they are allowing 4.7 yards/carry on the road. The Yellow Jackets are average 5.5 yards/carry on the season. Nearly 1.2 yards more per carry than what their opponents typically allow and that average climbs to 6.0 yards/carry at home.

Lastly, this Georgia Tech defense is no joke. While they gave up 40 last week at Virginia, they held the Cavaliers to just 357 total yards and 15 first downs. Virginia scored a ton of points off great field position and also had a 92-yard kickoff return for a TD. When facing top tier defenses the Hokies have struggled to put up points. Also, if you take away their 59-point outburst against UNC, they have averaged just 18.5 ppg in ACC play. Give me the Yellow Jackets +3.

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS KNOCKOUT (Duke -2.5)

It's time to put up or shut up for the Blue Devils, who at 4-5 need to win 2 of their final 3 games to get back to a bowl after missing out on postseason play a year ago. It looked like they would get to 6 wins without a problem, as they started the season 4-0, but have since dropped 5 straight.

I believe that has the Blue Devils way undervalued here in a very favorable matchup with Army. Duke has had a ton of success going up against the triple-option playing in the same division as Georgia Tech. They also have faced this Army team each of the last two years. They held the Black Knights to just 3 points in 2015 and 6 points last year. Their defense is even better against the run this season than it was last year, plus they have had two full weeks to prepare for the option coming off of their bye. 

Army is setting at 7-2 and you might think there's a lot to play for, but that's not really the case, as they have already accepted a bowl bid to play in the Armed Forces Bowl. The only thing that really matters to them the rest of the regular-season is the finale against Navy. On top of that, they just played another armed forces rival last week in Air Force, which they upset on the road 21-0.

Simply put, this game means a heck of a lot more to the Blue Devils than it does the Black Knights and we are getting great value with this short number. Note that Duke is 13-4 ATS under Cutcliffe in road games off a bye. Give me the Blue Devils -2.5! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ATS SLAUGHTER (Iowa St +7)

I was on the Cyclones as a 7-point dog in their 31-13 blowout win on the road against Texas Tech and again the next week when they beat TCU at home 14-7 as a 7-point dog. I laid off ISU in last week's game at West Virginia and it was the right call, as they failed to cover in a 16-20 loss. I'm jumping right back on the Cyclones bandwagon as they again are catching a touchdown, this time at home against Oklahoma St. 

This isn't just a play against the Cowboys off that crushing loss at home last week to Oklahoma, but it's definitely a big factor into this decision. That loss dropped Oklahoma State to 4-2 in the Big 12 and likely out of contention for the Big 12 title game. Regardless of what happens in Saturday's game between TCU and Oklahoma, the loser would still be 5-2 in league play and would hold the tie-breaker over the Cowboys. They would need whoever loses that game to lose again and that's just unlikely to happen. 

At the same time, this Iowa State team is the real deal, as Matt Campbell has turned this program around faster than anyone could have imagined. There's something special going on offensively behind senior walk-on QB Kyle Kempt and the defense is right there with Texas and TCU as the best in the league. Since limiting Oklahoma to 7-points in the 2nd half of their upset win in Norman, the Cyclones have held each of their last 4 opponents to 20 or less. 

As good as the Cowboys offense is, they struggled mightily against TCU and Texas. They ended up with 31 against the Horned Frogs, but had just 17 before a couple of late scores and that was at home. They only had 13-points on the road against the Long Horns. I think the defense steps up again and ISU wins this one outright. Give me the Cyclones +7! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Stanford +6.5) 

You can never underestimate the advantage that these teams have playing at home in a prime time weekday game. Even more so when it's against a highly ranked opponent like we have here with Stanford hosting Washington. To a lot of people this line isn't going to look like enough and will back the Huskies, but I actually think the Cardinal win this game outright. 

Stanford has had this game circled on the calendar ever since the schedule was released, as they have not forgot about the embarrassing 44-6 loss they suffered at the hands of these Huskies last year. I also think the Cardinal are a lot better than people think. I know they barely beat Oregon State and just lost at Washington state, but star running back Bryce Love didn't play against the Beavers and wasn't quite back to 100% against the Cougars. I believe he's going to be back to elite form here and he's the type of talent that can have success even against a top tier defense like Washington. 

This spot reminds me a lot of when USC had to go on the road earlier this season and face Washington State on a Friday night. The Cougars came away with the upset and I like Stanford to do the same. Note the Cardinal are a perfect 3-0 at home this season, improving their record to 55-14 at home going back to the 2007 season. They are also 6-0 ATS since 2005 as a home dog. Give me Stanford +6.5! 

40* NCAAF Thurs Night ATS NO BRAINER (Appalachian St -17.5)

I'm willing to lay the big number here with the Mountaineers at home against Georgia Southern. You have to sometimes worry about teams overlooking an opponent like the Eagles, who are winless on the season at 0-8, but that's not a concern for this one. Appalachian State is going to be a pissed off bunch and completely locked in after losing their last two games. If they want any hope of earning at least a share of the Sun Belt title they must win out and I believe it starts with a lopsided victory tonight. 

The key here is the Mountaineers should dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Appalachian State comes in averaging 4.9 yards/carry on the ground with an even better 5.6 average at home. Georgia Southern's defense is giving up 5.3 yards/carry on the season and a ridiculous 6.9 yards/carry on the road. On the flip side of this, don't be fooled by the Eagles averaging 204 rushing yards/game. They have no choice to run because they can't throw and are actually only averaging 3.8 yards/carry. Mountaineers are only giving up 3.6 yards/carry at home and should be able to top that knowing Georgia Southern can't throw (only average 106 passing yards/game). Give me Appalachian State -17.5!