40* TEXAS A&M/AUBURN NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Texas A&M -6.5)

’m going to lay the 6.5-points on the road with No. 5 Texas A&M as they visit Auburn. I just think there’s too much value here with the Aggies laying less than touchdown in this matchup. We can bank on Texas A&M being locked in for this game after pretty poor showing at home last week against LSU. It was just one of those games where the offense couldn’t get it going, but one thing this team has been able to do is not let bad performances stack on top of each other. 

There’s also a ton of incentive for Texas A&M to play well. Like it or not. They are No. 5 in the rankings and if they win out they got a decent shot of sneaking into the 4-team playoff because of their head-to-head to win against Florida. 

I know this is Auburn’s senior day and last home game of the season, but I just question how motivated the Tigers are going to be for this game. They just played their biggest game of the season last week against Alabama and have nothing left but pride to play for at this point. I don’t think the likely letdown from that game against the Crimson Tide is being factored enough into this line. 

I think it’s also worth pointing hut that I don’t think Auburn is as good as their 5-3 record would lead on. They have two double-digit wins against Kentucky and Tennessee that were much closer than the final scores would indicate, if not for a bad call they lose at home to Arkansas and they trailed Ole Miss late in the 4th quarter of a game they ended up winning by 7. 

Bo Nix hasn’t made that big sophomore jump that Auburn fans were hoping for. He’s thrown for more than 250 yards just twice in 8 games. He’s been sacked 18 times and has thrown just 10 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. 

I believe with Texas A&M’s talent up front defense, all the pressure is going to fall on Nix in this game and I will gladly take my chances that he doesn’t deliver. The Aggies rank 5th in the country giving up just 87.1 rushing yards/game. Give me the Aggies -6.5! 

40* TEXAS/K-STATE NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Kansas St +7.5)

This is one of those situations that I can't wait to play at the end of the season. If you look at the talent on the roster and the stats leading up to this game, it's going to tell you to play Texas. I just think you can throw out the numbers in this one. 

This is just a spot where it's almost impossible for a team like Texas to show up. The Longhorns are coming off a loss in the final minutes to Iowa State in a game they had to win to keep alive their hopes of playing in the Big 12 title game. Now there's nothing at stake and it only makes it that much harder to show up on the road. Not to mention K-State isn't a big rival or anything. 

I know the Wildcats have lost 4 in a row, but that almost makes me like them more in this spot. This is K-State's last game of the season, which means the last time these seniors will take the field at home. I know Texas isn't what Texas was, but these Big 12 teams still get up for the Longhorns. I really think K-State can not only cover, but win this game outright. Give me the Wildcats +7.5! 

40* ARKANSAS/MISSOURI NCAAF ATS ANNIHILATOR (Arkansas +3) 

I think the books are setting bait with Missouri as a slim 2.5 to 3 point home favorite against Arkansas. The Tigers have gone 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. Last time out they destroyed Vanderbilt 41-0 as a mere 14-point favorite. That's great and all, but I just don't think it's worth getting all that excited beating LSU, Kentucky Vandy at home and S Carolina on the road. 

Also, while Missouri still has a game on deck next week against Vandy (for now), this is it for the Razorbacks. Arkansas is going to be motivated to end this season on a strong note. This is the best the Razorbacks have looked in years. They had covered 6 straight to open the season before losing their last two. They got blown out by Florida, but only lost by 3 as a 1.5-point dog to LSU. 

Arkansas has had all kinds of time to prepare, as they have been off since Nov. 21. I just think their defense is built to slow down an offense like Missouri, who really wants to air it out. More than anything, I think the hogs are the better team and the books certainly agree given the line they set with the recent results that have taken place. Give me Arkansas +3! 

40* MISS ST/OLE MISS NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Mississippi St +10) 

I’m going to take the Mississippi State Bulldogs +10 in Saturday’s showdown with in-state rival Ole Miss. I not only think Mississippi State will cover the double-digit spread, but I give them a legit shot at winning this game outright. 

No one could have predicted how bad the Bulldogs offense would be after their season-opening 44-34 win at LSU. K.J. Costello threw for over 600 yards and there was all kinds of talk about how Mike Leach’s offense was going to torment the SEC. 

It went the exact opposite. Over Mississippi State’s next 4 games they would score just 30 points and turn the ball over 15 times. 

Costello would eventually get hurt and it’s opened up the door for true freshman Will Rogers to get his feet wet. Rogers has gotten better and better with each outing. Last week he was sensational against a Georgia team that was coming off a bye. Rogers completed 41 of 52 attempts for 336 yards, as Mississippi State narrowly lost 24-31 on the road to the Bulldogs as a 26.5-point underdog. In his 2 starts he’s completed 78% of his attempts and the Bulldogs offense didn’t have a single turnover in either start. 

He’s not the only freshman that’s been making noise on the offensive side of the ball. True freshman running back Dillon Johnson scored twice on the ground and true freshman wide out Jaden Walley had 7 catches for a team-high 115 yards, including a 51 yard TD pass. 

I’m pretty confident that the Bulldogs can keep this momentum on the offensive side going against Ole Miss. The Rebels are the worst defensive team in the SEC. They are giving up 40.9 ppg and 536 yards/game. The only team they have held under 33 points is Vanderbilt and that was a bit fluky as the Commodores scored just 21 points despite racking up over 400 yards. 

I know that Ole Miss has a great offense and are going to put up points, but defense hasn’t exactly been a weakness for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are only giving up 367 yards/game and 5.4 yards/play. 

I really think that you could make a strong case here that Mississippi State’s offense will have the easier time moving the football. No way should they be getting this many points. Give me the Bulldogs +10! 

40* KENT ST/BUFFALO NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Kent State +7.5) 

I will gladly take more than a touchdown with the Golden Flashes. I love this Kent State team. More than anything, I love their head coach Sean Lewis. Unfortunately for the Flashes, this is probably it for him. I would be shocked if he's not a head coach at a much bigger program after this season. 

Lewis installed what is known as the "FlashFast" offense when he arrived. It's working. Kent State has put up 52.7 ppg and 616 ypg. A big reason for those numbers is senior QB Dustin Crum, who is averaging 10.3 yards/attempt and has a 9-1 TD-INT ratio. 

This is a team coming into the year that I thought could win the MAC. So while they have benefited by playing their last two games against BG and Akron, you can't fault them for the schedule. There's every reason to believe they can not only hang but beat this Buffalo team. 

They did exactly that last year, beating the Bulls 30-27 as a 6.5-point dog. I just think this line should be closer to 3.5. Give me Kent State +7.5!  

50* MARYLAND/INDIANA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Maryland +12) 

This is a situational spot that I love to back. It's all about fading teams like Indiana that are off a crushing loss. It's so much about losing the game, it's the fact that with that loss they also lost any hope that they could shock the world and win the Big Ten East. 

That type of defeat also hurts that much more when you feel like you could have won the game. It didn't look good for Indiana early, as they trailed Ohio State 28-7 at the half. Hoosiers had the ball twice in the final minutes down just 7. 

I just don't see how this Indiana team can talk themselves into getting up for a game against Maryland. Given what we have seen out of the Terps in their last two games, they might win this one outright. Maryland beat Minnesota 45-44 as 17.5-point dog and then won 35-19 as a 27.5 point dog at Penn State. 

After a dreadful first start against Northwestern, Taulia Tagovailoa (Tua's younger brother) has been outstanding, throwing for 676 yards and 6 TDs in those two upset wins over the Gophers and Nittany Lions. Give me Maryland +12! 

40* STANFORD/CAL NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Stanford +1.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Cardinal at basically a pick'em against the Golden Bears. I think we are getting a great price on Stanford in this one. The Cardinal are a team I was really high on coming into this year. I'm still not sure they don't beat Oregon in their opener if Mills doesn't test positive for covid right before the game. 

The defense hasn't been great in their first two games, but they will be facing a Cal offense that is averaging a mere 4.3 yards/play in their two games against UCLA and Oregon State. This is also not the same Golden Bear defense to what we are use to seeing under Wilcox. Cal is giving up 224 yards/game and 5.3 yards/carry against the run and 6.1 yards/play overall. 

Also revenge angle here for Stanford, as Cal won this rivalry game last year for the first time in 10 years. Give me the Cardinal +1.5! 

50* NOTRE DAME/N CAROLINA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Notre Dame -4.5) 

I love the value here with the Irish laying less than a touchdown against the Tar Heels. I got a ton of respect for what Mack Brown is doing with this UNC program, but I just don't see the Tar Heels making a game of it. 

It all comes down to defense and only one of these teams play it. North Carolina has won two games this season giving up 45 or more points. They also lost a game against a bad Virginia team allowing 44. They certainly aren't slowing down a Notre Dame offense that has scored 40+ in 5 of their last 7 games, including each of their last two. 

I'm not going to say that the Irish will be able to keep UNC from scoring, but Notre Dame should at least be able to get some stops. The Irish are only giving up 16.6 ppg and 304 yards/game on the season. 

Also laying more than a field goal isn't as concerning in a game where a lot of points figure to be scored. Much more likely that if Notre Dame wins they do so by more than the number. Give me the Irish -4.5! 

40* NEBRASKA/IOWA NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Nebraska +14) 

This is just too many points to pass up with Nebraska in Friday's big rivalry game with Iowa. It just feels like we are seeing a bit of an overreaction here from last week's results with the Hawkeyes steamrolling Penn State on the road 41-21, while the Cornhuskers inexplicably lost 23-41 at home to Illinois as a 17-point favorite. 

I just think that poor showing against the Illini was more of Nebraska just not showing up ready to play that game. They aren't going to do that against Iowa. They are going to give everything they got to make a game of this and let's not forget they too beat Penn State and gave Northwestern all they could handle on the road. 

Each of the last two in this series have been decided by 3-points or less, including Nebraska's last trip to Iowa, where they lost 28-31 as a 8.5-point dog. I just think it's asking a lot here for Iowa to win by more than 2 touchdowns. Give me Nebraska +14! 

40* TENNESSEE/AUBURN NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Tennessee +10.5) 

I will gladly take the 10.5-points with the Volunteers on the road against Auburn. I think this is a great spot to buy low on Tennessee. The Vols come in having lost 4 straight and are 0-4 ATS in those 4 defeats. I expect a very motivated Tennessee team coming off a bye week.

While Auburn hasn't played a game in November, they might have a hard time getting up for this game. That's because the Iron Bowl against Alabama is looming next week. That's Auburn's Super Bowl. 

I also think Auburn's lackluster offense and subpar defense make this a great matchup for Tennessee. Look for the Vols to get their run game going in this one and I think that's the key to this offense having success. Wouldn't be shocked at all if the Vols won outright. Give me Tennessee +10.5! 

40* VA TECH/PITT NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Pittsburgh +3.5)

I'll take my chances here with Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point home dog against the Hokies. The Panthers snapped a 4-game losing streak last time they were out with a 41-17 blowout win at Florida State. I look for Pitt to carry over that momentum with a big showing at home against a reeling Virginia Tech team. 

Hokies ACC hopes have come crashing to a close, as Va Tech now has 3 losses in ACC play after last week's crushing 24-25 loss at home to Miami. That's one of those losses that are really hard to bounce back from. 

I also don't like this matchup at all for Virginia Tech. The Hokies are a run dominant team. They come in averaging 263 ypg on 43 attempts/game. That plays right into the strength of the Pitt defense, which is giving up just 79 yards/game and 2.2 yards/carry vs the run. Give me the Panthers +3.5! 

40* WISCONSIN/NORTHWESTERN NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Northwestern +7.5) 

I'm going to take the No. 19 ranked Northwestern Wildcats +7.5 at home against the No. 10 ranked Wisconsin Badgers. I just think the price is right with Northwestern as more than a touchdown dog at home against Wisconsin. I actually think the Wildcats can win this game outright.

Even though Northwestern comes in 4-0, ranked in the Top 25, I still think this team is flying under the radar. The Wildcats only went 3-9 last year, but with 19 returning starters and Indiana grad transfer Peyton Ramsey added in to be the new starting quarterback, this was a team that was primed to have a massive turnaround. 

Ramsey has really helped the offense improve over last year, when they averaged just 16.3 ppg and 297 ypg, but it's the defense that is what makes this Wildcats team special. Northwestern is allowing just 14.0 ppg, which is 11.9 ppg fewer than what their opponents are averaging. They are giving up just 3.6 yards/carry against the run and 4.8 yards per pass attempt. They are allowing just 302 ypg and 4.3 yards/play. 

I know Wisconsin's offense has looked great in their first two games, but they played an awful Illinois team and a Michigan team that just isn't very good and I believe lost a lot of their fight after how poorly they started the year. Freshman quarterback Graham Mertz was spectacular against the Fighting Illini, going 20 of 21 for 248 yards and 5 TDs. He was much more average against Michigan, going just 12 of 22 for 127 yards. 

I'm confident here that Northwestern's defense can hold the Badgers in check. Keep in mind last year when these two teams played, Wisconsin came into the game off a shocking 35-14 blowout win over then No. 11 Michigan and barely held on for a 24-15 home win over Northwestern. Badgers only managed 243 total yards, totaling just 130 rushing yards on 36 attempts. Note that was a Wisconsin team that was 3-0 averaging 48.3 ppg and 507 ypg. Give me the Wildcats +7.5

50* BIG TEN PLAY OF THE MONTH (Penn State +3) 

I will gladly take the points here with Penn State at home against the Hawkeyes. I believe this is the perfect time to buy low on the Nittany Lions, who have went from Big Ten title contender to a team that some are questioning if they will win a game after their 0-4 start. 

I jut think losing their opener at Indiana, a game they should have won and then losing the next week at home to Ohio State, really put this team in a bad spot mentally. I believe it played into losses to both Maryland and Nebraska. 

I got a feeling that being a home dog will light a fire under this team and have them ready to roll against a pretty mediocre Iowa team. Hawkeyes have dominated their last two games against Michigan State and Minnesota, but those are two bad teams. I don't see the Hawkeyes running at will against this Penn State defense and that could make it real hard for their offense to score. 

Another thing to note is I think the offense is going to get more of Will Levis at quarterback, though both him and Sean Clifford are expected to play. Either way I think the Nittany Lions offense will be able to move the ball. Give me Penn State +3! 

50* FLORIDA/ARKANSAS NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Arkansas +18) 

I'll take the points here with the Razorbacks, as we will gladly fade No. 6 ranked Florida after last week's huge 44-28 win over Arkansas. Not only do I love the situation here with the Gators primed for a letdown, but this Razorbacks team has been a money-making machine in 2020. 

With last week's come-from-behind win over Tennessee, Arkansas is now 3-3 in SEC play. A remarkable feat given they had a mere 1 conference win over the last 3 seasons combined. Last year they were outgained on average in SEC play by 179 yards/game. This year they are only getting outgained by 25 yards/game. 

You have to give credit for the turnaround to first year head coach Sam Pittman, as well as transfer quarterback Feleipe Franks. In 6 starts, Franks has completed 67% of his attempts for 1,428 yards with a 14-3 TD-INT ratio. Last year in 12 games, Arkansas quarterbacks completed just 49.6% of their attempts for 2,315 yards with a 14-15 TD-INT ratio!

I think Franks and that offense could expose a Florida defense that has been gashed a few times already this season. 

As for the Razorbacks defense, it's kind of built for Florida's high-powered pas attack. Arkansas is only giving up 222 passing yards/game and even more impressive just 6.0 yards/attempt, which is a full 1.2 yards under what their opponents average. Give me the Razorbacks +18! 

50* SMU/TULSA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Tulsa -2) 

Not only do I love Tulsa in this game, but this matchup falls into one of my favorite betting situations for college football. We got an unranked Tulsa team listed as the favorite against a ranked SMU (No. 19) team.

The public loves to back good teams, so no shocker they love to bet ranked teams. They simply won't be able to help themselves when it comes to backing SMU in this game. All they see is the No. 19 team needing to win outright against an unranked opponent. Right now over 60% of the action is on the Mustangs. 

While Tulsa has only been able to play 4 games, they are 3-1 with their only loss being a mere 16-7 loss at Oklahoma State. A game they could have easily won outright. Their very next game after that loss they went on the road and beat UCF 34-26 as a 20.5 point dog. 

What's crazy about Tulsa is their defense has been way better than expected. Golden Hurricane are giving up just 373 yards/game and 4.9 yards/play. Note that's against teams who are averaging 447 ypg and 5.8 yards/play. 

I know this SMU offense is really good behind former Texas quarterback Shane Buechele, but this is not the same explosive offense that we saw start the year, as they have lost an elite playmaker at wide receiver in Reggie Roberson Jr. 

His absence hasn't been felt a ton against most teams, but we did see Buechele and the Mustangs mange just 13 points and 215 passing yards at Cincinnati. Now I know the Bearcats' defense is really good and much better than Tulsa's, but I think it gives us hope with how well the Hurricanes have defended the pass this year. Give me Tulsa -2! 

50* NORTHWESTERN/PURDUE NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Northwestern -3) 

I will gladly lay a field goal with Northwestern on the road against Purdue. Both these teams are undefeated. The Wildcats are sitting at 3-0, while the Boilermakers are 2-0. I think it has them getting a little too much respect in a game where they are going to need to play perfect just to make a game of it. 

Purdue would be 2-1 if last week's game against Wisconsin wasn't cancelled because of Covid. They could have also lost their opener at home against Iowa, which they trailed 20-14 in the 4th quarter. What's even more concerning is in their other win, they barely squeaked by a bad Illinois team 31-24 and were actually outgained by the Illini 472 to 456. 

I not only think the Boilermakers offense is going to have a miserable time moving the ball against one of the Big Ten's best defenses in Northwestern, but I think their defense, which is giving up 466 ypg and 6.1 yards/play will also struggle. Give me the Wildcats -3! 

40* NOTRE DAME/BOSTON COLLEGE NCAAF SHARP STAKE (BC +14) 

I really like Boston College catching two touchdowns against Notre Dame. The Eagles have been better than expected and a big reason for that is first year starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec. 

BC's passing attack hasn't been this good since Matt Ryan was in town. He had the Eagles on the verge of a huge upset a couple weeks back against Clemson. While he only threw for 204 yards, he threw had 2 TDs and 0 picks. He also did it with the offense unable to establish any kind of running game. 

This game is all about Jurkovec, as he got tired of sitting behind Ian Book at Notre Dame and transferred from the program after last season. There's nothing this kind wants more than to show his old team they made a mistake letting him walk out the door. 

40* WAKE FOREST/N CAROLINA NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Wake Forest +14) 

Give me the Demon Deacons as a two touchdown dog against the Tar Heels. I think Mac Brown has the potential to do some big things going forward with this North Carolina program. I just wonder if people didn't get a little too high on this team a little too early in the process. This is still just year two under Brown. He's got another year or two before he's got a roster made up of only his recruits. 

They are off to a decent 5-2 start, but 4 of those wins have come against the likes of Syracuse, BC, NC State and Duke. The only real quality win was at home against Va Tech and they gave up 45 in the process. Hokies were also still dealing with Covid at that time. 

We have also seen UNC lose to teams they shouldn't. FSU beat them 31-28 as a 13.5-point dog and Virginia knocked them off 44-41 as a 8-point dog. 

I'm not saying they shouldn't be favored at home against Wake Forest, but two touchdowns? This is not a bad Demon Deacons team. They are 4-2 with a 3-point loss at NC State (before they lost their QB) and a mere 37-13 loss at home to Clemson (pretty good when you consider what Clemson does to most other ACC teams). 

They come into this game having won and covered in 4 straight games, as no one wants to give this team any respect. I love that head coach Dave Clawson can continue to play that card in this one. Give me Wake Forest +14! 

40* INDIANA/MICHIGAN ST NCAAF SLAUGHTER (Michigan St +7.5)

I'm going to take the Michigan State Spartans +7.5 at home against the No. 10 ranked Indiana Hoosiers. I just think this line has been inflated quite a bit after what took place last week with Indiana destroying Michigan 38-21 as a 3.5-point dog, while Michigan State got annihilated on the road 49-7 by an Iowa team that had started out 0-2. 

Props to Indiana for starting out 3-0, but I just don't think this is the 10th best team in the country. For starters, they had no business beating Penn State in their opener, as the Nittany Lions held a 488 to 217 edge in total yards. They then beat an improved Rutgers team on the road before crushing what has turned out to be a very overrated Michigan team. 

The same Michigan team that Michigan State went on the road an upset 27-24 as a 21.5-point underdog. For a team that didn't come into the season thinking Big Ten title, there's not a game on the schedule they wanted to win more than that game against Michigan. I'm pissed at myself for not seeing that and taking the Hawkeyes last week. There was just little to no chance the Spartans were going to play well in that game. 

Good thing is the victory hangovers usually are just a 1-week deal and that should definitely be the case here with the No. 10 ranked team in the country coming into your house. 

Going back to Indiana for a minute. I think there's a lot of red flags with the Hoosiers right now. Indiana is 27th in the country averaging 37.0 ppg, but are a mere 102nd in total offense at just 339 yards/game. They are only averaging 4.7 yards/play. They have shown no threat of a running game so far with just 89 yards/game and 2.6 yards/rush. They are actually getting outgained by 25.0 ypg. 

Michigan State actually has better offensive averages with 368 ypg and 5.0 yards/play, yet they are only averaging a mere 20.3 ppg. Spartans are also getting outgained on average in Big Ten play, but only by 9.7 ypg. 

Lastly, this is not a good spot for the Hoosiers. Not only are they coming off a massive home win over Michigan, but their biggest game of the season is looming next week in Columbus as they travel to take on Ohio State. A game that if Indiana were to win would put them in the drivers seat to shock everyone and win the Big Ten East. 

I just think it's going to be really hard for Indiana to show up with the right kind of mindset here to cover this spread and I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Spartans wound up winning this game outright. 

40* MIAMI/VA TECH NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Va Tech -1.5) 

This is one of those plays that you don't have to do a lot of research to get to the selection. This is where you just look at the line and trust the process. 

In this game we have No. 9 Miami as an underdog against an unranked Virginia Tech team. Any time you have an unranked team favored over a team that is ranked in the Top 25, it's nearly automatic that you take the favorite. 

Note this is not something I just do blindly. For example, last week Va Tech was -14 vs No. 25 Liberty and I did not play it. 

Just this season if you took the unranked favorite vs the ranked dog, you would be 58-40-2. That's an exceptional 59% win rate. 

As for the actual game, I like that Va Tech is coming off an upset loss. It's going to ensure that the Hokies are 100% locked in for this game. Not only that, but this is a good Va Tech team that can really run the ball. Khalil Herbert is one of the best backs in the country. He's already got 803 yards and is averaging a ridiculous 8.4 yards/carry on 96 attempts. They also got a QB that can burn you. Hendon Hooker has 515 yards and 8 TDs with a 6.3 average/carry. Note Hooker missed 2.5 games. 

Miami's got a good but not great run defense. Hurricanes are giving up 4.1 yards/carry and we have seen them struggle, giving up over 200 yards to both Louisville and Clemson, as well as 185 against Virginia. Give me the Hokies -1.5! 

50* E MICH/BALL ST NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ball State -8) 

I got no problem here laying single-digits with Ball State at home against Eastern Michigan. There's value here with the Cardinals due to how last week's games played out. Ball State wound up losing 31-38 at Miami,OH, despite outgaining the RedHawks 478 to 422. E Michigan on the other hand covered as a 5.5-point dog in a 23-27 loss at Kent State, but that was more of the Flashes not playing up to their potential. 

I just don't see the Eagles being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Ball State is going to score. The Cardinals have one of the better QBs in the conference in senior Drew Plitt, who threw for 309 yards against the RedHawks. This is one of the better offenses in the conference. 

On the flip side of the ball, Eastern Michigan's offensive line was dominated in their first game by Kent State's front. The Flashes racked up 5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss. Against a much better offense, Ball State had 3 sacks and 10 tackles for loss. You have to believe there's going to be a lot of negative plays for the Eagles, which should allow Ball State's defense to get off the field and create that separation needed to cover this number. Give me the Cardinals -8! 

50* KENT ST/BOWLING GREEN NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Kent State -20.5) 

I will gladly lay less than 3 touchdowns with Kent State against this Bowling Green team. Akron is without question the worst team in the MAC, but I don't think the Falcons are far behind the Zips. There's such a big gap between the those two and the next best team that I think we can sometimes find value going against them. 

I love this Kent State team. Not only do they got a star in the making in 34-year-old head coach (youngest in FBS) Sean Lewis, but they are loaded with talent. They got the best QB in the conference in Dustin Crum and while everyone is debating between Miami and Buffalo as the best team in the MAC East, it just might be this Kent State team. 

The Flashes didn't play well in their opener, but found a way to hold on for a 27-23 win over Eastern Michigan. Listening to the post game press conferences, it was clear they were not happy with how they played. They expected more out of themselves. 

I got a feeling Kent State is out to make a statement tonight. That could be bad news for Bowling Green. Last year the Flashes whooped up on the Falcons 62-10, accumulating 750 total yards with exactly 375 passing and rushing. 

I don't know how Bowling Green is going to be able to score to keep pace. Falcons starting quarterback Matt McDonald was just 8 of 30 for 128 yards against Toledo. BG clearly lacks a passing attack. That's a big problem against this Kent State defensive front Flashes limited E Mich to just 61 rushing yards on 32 attempts. They recorded 5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss. Give me Kent State -20.5! 

40* WASHINGTON ST/OREGON ST NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Oregon St -1.5) 

I will gladly take Oregon State at home at basically a pick'em against Washington State. I think these are two programs headed in different directions in 2020. The Beavers are now in year 3 under head coach Jonathan Smith. 

He took over a team that went just 1-11 and was off 4 straight losing seasons. They went just 2-12 in his first year, but improved to 5-7 last year with a 4-5 mark in league play (only had 6 conference wins over the previous 5 seasons). 

They lose some big pieces on offense, but this offense has performed well under offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren and have some talent to work with. They also have 9 starters back from a defense that made massive improvements last year. While they gave up 32.5 ppg and 446 ypg, they allowed 45.7 ppg and 537 ypg the year before. 

As for Washington State, they begin a new era after head coach Mike Leach left to take over at Mississippi State. They also lost their stud QB in Anthony Gordon, who threw for 48 touchdowns and over 5,500 yards. I just don't trust the plug-and-play approach that has worked so well without Leach and a new offense. 

They are also got a new DC who wants to play a more physical style when all the guys that were recruited were small and fast guys. I just think they are going to struggle on both sides of the ball,especially early on. Give me Oregon State -1.5! 

40* STANFORD/OREGON NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Stanford +10.5) 

I'm going to take the Stanford Cardinal +10.5 on the road against the No. 12 ranked Oregon Ducks. This is the first game for both teams, as the Pac-12 finally gets their 2020 season started. 

That's important to note, as this line feels like a big overreaction to last year, which saw Oregon go 12-2 and just miss out on the playoffs, while Stanford had one of it's worst season in decades with a record of 4-8. 

I'm going to start with Oregon. I just don't think this year's Ducks team is going to be anything close to last year. They lost one of the best players in the country in quarterback Justin Herbert, who threw for nearly 3,500 yards with a 32-6 TD-INT ratio. A loss that I feel has to be magnified even more when you look at how well Herbert is playing in the NFL. He's right there with Joe Burrow for rookie of the year. I just don't see anyway this offense mirrors anything to the unit that put up 35.4 ppg and 433 ypg.

And it's not just the loss of Herbert that has me thinking this. Oregon lost their left tackle, who many have rated as the best LT prospect for next year's draft. He was the only starter coming back on the o-line. I know the Ducks recruit well, but an inexperienced line and raw signal caller is usually a recipe for disaster. 

Also with starting corner Thomas Graham and safety Brady Breeze opting out, Oregon goes from having 4 of their top 6 tacklers back to only 2. Note one of the other guys they lost was All-American linebacker and leading tackler Troy Dye. 

As for Stanford, I'm putting my trust in David Shaw and his staff to get this team back to the level it was prior to last year's dip. Injuries played a massive role to them underperforming. They had to go thru 3 different starting QBs and had 3 true freshmen starting on the o-line. 

I like what they have in junior quarterback Davis Mills, but even more so the fact that they got 4 starters back on the 0-line. I also think we might see a dynamic duo emerge at running back with sophomore Austin Jones and true freshman EJ Smith. Both very highly touted of HS and for those that don't know, EJ is the son of NFL Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith. 

The defense doesn't figure to be elite like it had been for such a long time, but with 7 starters back and so many young guys getting experience last year because of injuries, this unit should be a much better version than last year's. Give me Stanford +10.5 

*Still recommend a play on the Cardinal at +7.5 or better. 

50* BAYLOR/ISU *BIG 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH* (Iowa State -13.5)

I will gladly lay less than two touchdowns with Iowa State at home against Baylor. I've faded the Bears each of the last 3 weeks with success. I just don't think people realize just how bad this Baylor team is. 

The Bears only win this season came in their opener against Kansas, which they won rather convincingly 47-14. However, they only outgained the Jayhawks 352 to 328. They are better than Kansas, but I also think they are closer to Kansas in terms of talent than they are the rest of the Big 12. 

The biggest thing with Baylor is their offense is anemic. They are averaging 26.8 ppg, but only 300 ypg and that's against defenses that on average give up 374 ypg. In their last 3 games combined, they have scored a mere 24 points over the 1st three quarters of the game. 

Iowa State has one of the best defenses in the conference and we can count on the Cyclones being locked in the rest of the way. ISU wins out and they are going to be in the Big 12 title game. I wouldn't be shocked here at all if Baylor scores 10 or fewer. 

Iowa State averages 32.0 ppg and are coming in confident on offense after scoring 52 points and racking up 552 yards in a win over Kansas. If they score just 30 here they should cover with ease. Give me the Cyclones -13.5! 

40* PITT/FLORIDA ST NCAAF CASH COW (Pittsburgh +2.5) 

I was surprised to see the public backing Florida State as heavily as they are (close to 60% action on Seminoles), but that only makes me like Pittsburgh that much more in this one. I think people are holding on to FSU's big 31-28 upset win at home over then No. 5 North Carolina. 

If the Seminoles were the real deal, they wouldn't have followed up that win with a 48-16 loss to Louisville. A game they were only a 5.5-point dog in. Sophomore quarterback Jordan Travis has given this team some life since replacing James Blackman, but he's really a running back with a decent arm at quarterback. He's only completed 50.5% of his attempts with a 4-4 TD-INT ratio. 

I just think for the Seminoles offense to have success they have to be able to run the ball (241 rushing yards vs UNC). That's the problem. Pitt is a very strong defensive team that is built to stop the run. Panthers are allowing just 69 yards/game and 2.0 yards/carry vs the run. They are giving up just 298 yards/game and 4.4 yards/play. 

Just to put that in comparison, Florida State gives up 209 yards/game and 5.6 yards/carry vs the run and allow 490 yards/game and 7.0 yards/play. I know the Pitt offense is bad, but I feel like they are the only offense that will be able to move the ball. Give me the Panthers +2.5! 

50* FLORIDA/GEORGIA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Georgia -3) 

I love the value here with Georgia laying only a field goal against the Gators. I just think the Bulldogs are an elite team and are still a bit undervalued from that ugly loss to Alabama. One in which they didn't follow up well, beating Kentucky by a final of just 14-3 as a 17-point favorite. That was on the road and a bad spot with this massive game on deck. 

For me it's pretty simple. I think Georgia's defense is good enough to keep Florida's offense in check. Gators have lit up the scoreboard, but they also haven't played the toughest defenses to this point. Keep in mind Florida put up big points in most of their games last year and only managed 17 points in a 24-17 loss to Georgia. 

On the other side of the ball, I look for the Bulldogs to be able to move the ball against a Florida defense that has not been good. Gators are giving up 433 yards/game and 5.8 yards/play. That's with them only giving up 248 yards last week to Missouri. We saw them give up 500+ to Ole Miss and Texas A&M. I really think this line should be closer to a TD. Give me the Bulldogs -3! 

50* ARIZONA ST/ USC NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (USC -10.5) 

I think most people look at this line and immediately look to taking the points with Arizona State and that's definitely been the case so far, as close to 65% of the action is on the Sun Devils. Any time the public is on a dog in a big game, I love to go the other way and that's exactly what I'll do here. 

What people love about the points and Arizona State is they have a big talent at quarterback in Jayden Daniels coming back. What they overlook is an offense that lost star running back Eno Benjamin and two of their top 3 wide outs including a big time talent in Brandon Aiyuk. Those 3 players (including Benjamin) accounted for 152 of Daniels 205 completions last year.

Sun Devils also lost 3 starters on the o-line and while new defensive coordinator Marvin Lewis is a big name, he's transforming the D from a 3 man front to a 4 man front. 

I just don't see Arizona State keeping pace offensively with what is going to be one of the most explosive offenses in the country. When JT Daniels got hurt last year, it opened the door for true freshman Kedon Slovis and in 11 starts he threw for 3,500 yards with 30 TDs to 9 interceptions. 

USC does lose their top wide out in Pittman, but get basically the rest of the offense back. They also add in red-shirt freshman wide out Bru McCoy, who was the #1 rated WR in his class out of high school. Give me the Trojans -10.5! 

50* MIAMI/NC STATE NCAAF *ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH* (NC State +11)

I really like the value we are getting with NC State as a double-digit home dog against Miami. No one is giving the Wolfpack any shot in this game and I think it makes them a dangerous underdog at home in a prime time game. 

If you have followed this Miami team at all in recent years, they have a way of losing these games where they are favored to win easily. Just last year they lost outright as a 14-point favorite to Va Tech, 20-point favorite to Georgia Tech and 20-point favorite to FIU. The first of those two coming on their own turf. 

It would not shock me at all if they lost this game. I get Miami's 5-1, but their best wins are against the likes of Louisville, FSU, Pittsburgh and Virginia. All of those teams currently have losing records. 

NC State is 4-2 and while they aren't the same team they were before losing starting quarterback Devin Leary to a season ending injury, I think they could be alright. While junior Bailey Hockman figures to start, I think we could see more of true freshman Ben Finley, who is the younger brother of former great NC State quarterback Ryan Finley. 

Ben Finley got in their blowout loss against UNC and impressed and I expect him to play a good amount in this game. 

I also have confidence that we will see a better NC State defense in this one. Wolf Pack didn't tackle well at all (missed 27 tackles) against UNC. The defense took ownership of that poor effort and I think we see a defense that is flying around the field in this one. 

I also think it's big getting two weeks to prepare for this game, as it allows them to prepare better for the dual threat ability of Miami quarterback D'Erig King. 

Also, you want to fade Miami in this spot. Hurricanes are 0-7 ATS last 7 times they played a game coming off a home conference win. They are also 0-6 ATS last 6 times coming off a bye. Give me the WolfPack +11! 

40* UTAH ST/NEVADA NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Nevada -15) 

I'm going to lay the points with the Wolf Pack at home against Utah State on Thursday night. For me it's the simple fact that I don't see any way this Aggies offense can score enough to keep this close. 

Utah State's offense was expected to take a step back this year after losing a big time talent in QB Jordan Love. It looks like they may have fallen off a cliff offensively. Aggies only managed 13 points and 203 yards of total offense in a 42-13 loss at Boise State to open the year. That same Boise State defense just gave up 30 points and 484 yards last week to Air Force. The same Falcons offense that only managed 298 in their opener against San Jose State. 

In last week's game against San Diego State they totaled just 7 points and 215 total yards. Their only score coming on a Hail Mary type of play at the end of the 1st half. 

Defensively the Aggies gave up 42 points and 450 yards to the Broncos and 38 points aon 570 yards to the Aztecs. Now they face one of the most potent offenses in the MWC in Nevada. One that has a talented sophomore quarterback in Carson Strong, who threw for 420 yards and 4 scores against a good Wyoming defense in their opener and had another 350 yards and 2 scores last week at UNLV. Give me the Wolf Pack -15! 

50* E MICH/KENT ST NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Kent State -6) 

I will gladly take my chances here with the Golden Flashes laying less than a touchdown at home against Eastern Michigan. Kent State is a program on the rise under third year head coach Sean Lewis, who is the youngest HC at the collegiate level at just 34-years-old. 

When he took over in 2018 this team had 5 straight seasons with 4 or fewer wins. The Golden Flashes did go just 2-10 in his first year on the job, but improved to 7-6 last year. Their 5 conference wins were half what they had the previous 6 years (10). 

This year's team is even stronger. Kent State brings back 13 starters, including the best QB in the MAC in senior Dustin Crum. Last year Crum completed 69% of his attempts with a 20-2 TD-INT ratio. He also led the team in rushing with 707 yards and 6 scores. 

Note that in last year's 7-6 finish, 3 of their 6 losses were on the road against Arizona State, Auburn and Wisconsin. Their 3 conferences losses were all by 7 or fewer. 

Eastern Michigan is one of the least experienced teams not just in the MAC, but the country. On offense they lose their top RB, WR and dual threat QB Mike Glass. On defense they lose 3 of their top 4 tacklers from a unit that gave up 30.6 ppg and 430 ypg. 

I just don't think we are still getting value with Kent State and not a surprise as these teams that go from being awful to great tend to hold their value a little longer. Give me the Golden Flashes -6! 

40* OLE MISS/VANDY NCAAF SLAUGHTER (Ole Miss -16.5) 

One of our few losers last week in college football was a really tough break on Ole Miss +3.5 at home against Auburn. Rebels gave up a 58-yard TD pass with 1:11 left to play leading 28-27. If they don't give up the big play, worst case Auburn goes down and wins on a field goal 30-27. 

Those ones always sting a little more, but it's not enough to keep me from firing back with Ole Miss this week at Vanderbilt. I just don't feel like the number here is near enough. Vanderbilt played a surprisingly close game at Texas A&M in their opener, losing 17-12 as a 31.5-point favorite. 

They still only had 250 yards of total offense in that game. After scoring just 7 in each of their next two games, the Commodores have a whopping 26 total points scored in 3 games. They are averaging 3.9 yards/play and that's against teams that give up 6.4 yards/play. The fact that they could only score 7 points and total just 266 yards against LSU at home, tells you everything you need to know about how bad this offense is. 

The defense that was so good against Texas A&M, has given up 41 to both LSU and South Carolina. Ole Miss can score points and are going to be hungry having lost 3 straight. I just don't see Vanderbilt doing anywhere close to enough offensively to keep this respectable. Give me Ole Miss -16.5! 

50* TCU/BAYLOR NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (TCU -2.5) 

I have a feeling I'm going to be betting against Baylor a lot this year. I played against them last week with Texas and the Longhorns won 27-16 as a 8.5-point favorite (wasn't that close). In their previous game I played against them with West Virginia as a 3-point home dog and the Mountaineers won 27-21. 

I'll gladly lay less than a field goal with TCU on the road against the Bears this week. Baylor has one of the most anemic offenses of any Power 5 program. The only reason they are averaging 28.0 ppg instead of 18.0 ppg is because they have already played Kansas. 

They only had 256 total yards in their game against West Virginia and 316 last week against Texas. In both of those games they went into the 4th quarter with 7 or fewer points. 

TCU comes into this one having just got the doors kicked in by Oklahoma at home, losing 33-14 as a mere 7-point dog. Horned Frogs are now just 1-3 on the season, but could easily be 3-1. I think if Duggan plays the entire game and not just the 2nd half, they probably beat ISU at home and the loss against K-State could have also went their way. Outgained the Wildcats 342 to 289 with 20 first downs to 12. 

I just think this TCU team is so much better than their record and should be close to a TD favorite than a field goal. Give me the Horned Frogs -2.5! 

50* INDIANA/RUTGERS NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Indiana -11) 

I will gladly lay less than two touchdowns with Indiana against the Scarlet Knights. I think a lot of people are going to look at this and be tempted to take Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights did just win 38-27 as a double-digit dog at Michigan State last week. They also see this is a big letdown spot for the Hoosiers. 

I see it the opposite. I think this is the ultimate sell high on Rutgers off a win against a Michigan State program that is in a full on rebuilding mode and just might be the worst team in the conference. 

I also think because Rutgers just won, that actually makes Indiana less likely to overlook them. Keep in mind this is an Indiana team that believes they can shock the world and win the Big Ten this year. I'm not saying they are right, but they know if they want to be that team, they got to beat bad teams like Rutgers. 

Because it had been so long for Rutgers just winning a game in Big Ten play, I think people ignore the numbers. The Scarlet Knights only had 276 total yards against a Spartans defense that only had 3 starters back. They were outgained by almost 100 yards and benefited a ton from 7 Michigan State turnovers. 

I know the boxscore wasn't great for Indiana in their win over Penn State, but I still think that's a really really good Nittany Lions team. The fact that they didn't put up big numbers and were able to win, speaks to the potential of this team. 

I know Rutgers is improved, but so is Indiana and the Hoosiers beat the Scarlet Knights 35-0 last year with a 557 to 75 edge in total yards. Give me Indiana -11! 

40* KANSAS ST/W VIRGINIA NCAAF NO-BRAINER (W Virginia -2.5) 

This is one of those plays you just play no matter what. Any time you have a ranked team getting points against an unranked opponent, you play the unranked team. I'll do just that with the Mountaineers at home against No. 16 Kansas State. 

I played against West Virginia last week at Texas Tech, as I didn't feel they should be laying points on the road against a pretty equal opponent. We cashed a winner with the Red Raiders, but it just as easily could have gone the other way. WV ended up outgaining Texas Tech 438 to 348. Even though they lost, I came away impressed with the Mountaineers. 

West Virginia has really been strong defensively and I think they can make things really difficult here on a pretty limited K-State offense that is down their starting QB in Skylar Thompson. True freshman Will Howard has decent numbers, but half his attempts came against an awful Kansas defense last week. They were pretty lucky to beat TCU with Howard and no way they pull off that upset in Norman without Thompson. Give me West Virginia -2.5! 

50* HAWAII/WYOMING MWC *PLAY OF THE MONTH* (Wyoming +2) 

I love the value here with Wyoming as a home dog against Hawaii on Friday. I believe Hawaii is overvalued coming off a 34-19 upset win over Fresno State. At the same time, I think the Cowboys are undervalued off a 34-37 OT loss at Nevada as a 2.5-point favorite. 

There's no shame losing at Nevada. That's one of the most improved teams in the MWC. Wolf Pack probably should have been favored in that one. What I like about Wyoming is they were outplayed and yet still made a game of it. 

This is a very well coached Cowboys team under Craig Bohl and are one of the most experienced teams not just in the conference, but the entire country. When this team is playing well, they are tough to beat at home. Last three times they have finished the season with a winning record they have gone 17-3 at home with a perfect 6-0 mark last year. 

As for Hawaii, I think they are a quality team, but I also feel like they beat up on a bad Fresno State team. Bulldogs also made it easy on them with 4 turnovers (Hawaii +3 turnover margin). Warriors haven't had a winning road record since 2010. I just don't see them pulling off back-to-back road wins. Give me the Cowboys +2! 

40* MINNESOTA/MARYLAND NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Minnesota -19.5) 

I went against Minnesota last week and won easy with Michigan -3, as the Wolverines laid it on the Gophers 49-24. A lot of people liked Minnesota to in that game. I believe seeing them lose like that will have some hesitant to lay this big number. Which is saying something given how bad Maryland looked last week in a 43-3 loss at Northwestern. 

My opinion really didn't change on Minnesota. They are good team with some decent talent, but they were not as good as their 11-3 record last year and it simply had them overvalued against a better team. 

I think the Gophers respond in a big way against the Terps. Minnesota destroyed Maryland 52-10 last year. I would be shocked if they didn't score 40+ in this one. Maryland's defense is clearly lacking talent in the front 7. They let Northwestern rush for 325 yards with 6 different players recording a rush of 10+ yards. 

Their offense wasn't any better. Tua's younger brother Taulia Tagovailoa went 14 of 25 for 94 yards with 0 TDs and 3 INTs. Maryland also rushed for a mere 64 yards on 21 attempts. This Minnesota defense isn't as good as Northwestern's stop unit, but it's still going to be able to get off the field. 

I just don't think it's asking a lot here for Minnesota to win by 20 or more points. Give me the Gophers -19.5! 

50* COLO ST/FRESNO ST NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Colorado St -1) 

I love the value here with Colorado State at basically a pick'em against Fresno State. While the Mountain West got started up last week, the Rams' game with New Mexico was canceled (had to do with New Mexico covid rate being too high). The Bulldogs were in action and were embarrassed 34-19 at home by Hawaii. Fresno State closed as a 2.5-point favorite in that game. 

The positive for the Bulldogs is they put up 409 yards. The negative was they had 4 turnovers, including 3 picks by new starting QB Jake Haener. Another big negative was the defense, which gave up 552 yards and 6.6 yards/play. Most notably allowing 323 rushing yards to the Rainbow Warriors. Not the debut Fresno fans were hoping for under new head coach Kalen Deboer. 

Colorado State also has a new coach, though it's a more formidable name in Steve Addazio, who spent the last 7 years at BC. I think the only reason this line isn't more, is because of the fact that the Rams only went 4-8 last year. 

They should be greatly improved and note that while they went just 3-5 in MWC play, they were +34 ypg in conference play (Fresno -85 ypg last year). Not only does Colorado State have 15 returning starters, but they have added in several transfers, including 3 offensive linemen from BC, who should all start. They also added Miami transfer Scott Patchan on defense, who should start. 

Former Nebraska signee Patrick O'Brien is back under center for Colorado State. Last year was his first with the team on the field and he started 9 games, completed 62% of his pasess for 2803 yards and 13 scores. Each of his top 5 targets from last year are back. 

I think there's a good chance this game gets ugly in a hurry. Give me Colorado State -1! 

40* MICHIGAN/MINNESOTA NCAAF STEAMROLLER (Michigan -3) 

I just feel the price here is too good to pass up with Michigan laying just 3-points on the road. It feels like this is the least hyped the Wolverines have been going into a season in the Harbaugh era. It's a little surprising, as it finally appears like they have found an elite QB to guide their offense after getting lackluster play at the position the last 5 years. 

All I hear is praise around Joe Milton and if what is being said holds true, Michigan could be a team to look out for in 2020. I know they lost some guys at wide receiver, but more times than not a good QB will make receivers look good and there's definitely talent at the position. It should also open up more running lanes. 

The other big thing for me, is I think Minnesota comes in way overvalued after finishing 11-2 last year. That was so much more about how easy the schedule was for the Gophers than them being elite. We saw that in their regular season finale, as they lost 38-17 at home to Wisconsin with a trip to the Big Ten title game on the line. 

Last year Minnesota's strength of schedule ranked around 60, while Michigan had one of the 10 toughest schedules in the country. Give me the Wolverines -3! 

50* W VIRGINIA/TEXAS TECH *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Texas Tech +3.5) 

The fact that this line is close to a pick'em says a lot, as the Red Raiders come in at 1-3, while the Mountaineers are sitting at 3-1. The thing with West Virginia and their 3-1 start is they had a cupcake game to open the season against EKU. Their other two wins are at home against Baylor and Kansas, who look like the two worst teams in the Big 12. 

The only decent team they faced was Oklahoma State and they lost by 14. Note that's a Cowboys team that while undefeated has not looked very good and was without starting quarterback Spencer Sanders. 

Texas Tech's first 3 conference games were at home against Texas (should have won,but lost in OT) and then on the road against K-State and Iowa State. This is going to be the best offense West Virginia has seen by a landslide, especially in terms of quarterback play. I really think the wrong team is favored in this one. Give me Texas Tech +3.5! 

40* BOSTON COLLEGE/GA TECH NCAAF ATS MASSACRE (Boston College -4)

I'll lay the short number here with the Eagles at home against the Yellow Jackets. Both of these teams are coming off a lopsided loss last week. Georgia Tech was obliterated at home by Clemson 73-7, while BC lost 40-14 at Virginia Tech. 

Thing is the Yellow Jackets 66-point loss was every bit as bad as it looked, and really could have been a lot worse. Clemson had 52-points at the half of that game and outgained Ga Tech by 567 yards. 

BC on the other hand was simply done in by turnovers, as they were -5 in that department against the Hokies. Eagles were only outgained 461 to 435 and had 24 first downs to Va Techs 23. Jurkovec is arguably the best QB in the country that not everyone knows about. He threw for 345 yards and 2 scores last week and ranks 5th in the country in passing in 2020 with 1,526 yards. 

Georgia Tech has faced two QBs ahead of Jurkovec in UCF's Gabriel and Clemson's Lawrence. Both times they gave up over 400 passing yards. I just don't think a turnover prone Yellow Jackets offense will be able to keep pace in this one. Give me Boston College -4! 

40* BAYLOR/TEXAS NCAAF ATS SLAUGHTER (Texas -8.5) 

I think this is the perfect time to buy low on Texas. The Longhorns come into this game off back-to-back heartbreaking losses. First it was a 31-33 defeat at TCU, where Texas had 1st and Goal with 2.5 mins to play and proceeded to fumble to all but end the game. In their next game they fell 45-53 in 4 OT against rival Oklahoma.  

The Longhorns have went from being ranked inside the Top 10 to not even ranked at all.  It’s like everyone has forgot about this team. Even the betting public wants nothing to do with them, as close to 70% of the early action has been on Baylor. Some of that has to do with the line, but the books aren’t stupid. I believe they set a big number here knowing the Bears are going to have a hard time keeping this close.  

I just don’t know what the public sees in this Baylor team. The Bears have only played two games because of covid. They opened with a 47-14 win over Kansas and then lost in 2OT 21-27 at West Virginia.  

Their 47-14 blowout win over the Jayhawks looks a lot like what others are doing against Kansas, but that was a misleading score. Baylor had 2 kickoff return TDs, a safety and scored a garbage TD up 40-14 in the final 5 minutes of the 4th quarter.  What really stands out to me is they only outgained Kansas 352 to 328. In the Jayhawks two other conference games, they were outgained 593 to 193 by Oklahoma State and 544 to 157 by West Virginia.  

Also, they were lucky to get to OT in their loss to the Mountaineers. They trailed 14-7 with 1:51 to play in the 4th quarter. At that time they only had 172 yards of total offense. Baylor caught a big break in that late scoring drive to force OT. Baylor would have had 4th and 10, but an unnecessary roughness penalty gave them a 1st down.

I just don’t think the Bears are going to be able to keep pace offensively in this one. Texas is going to score. Longhorns are averaging 49.5 ppg and 495 ypg. Note that’s come against opponents that are only giving up on average 30.4 ppg and 384 ypg. Give me Texas -8.5.  

40* IOWA/PURDUE NCAAF DOMINATION (Iowa -3) 

I like the price here with the Hawkeyes as a slim 3-point road favorite against Purdue. The Boilermakers will be without head coach Jeff Brohm because of Covid and I just think that's a big hurdle for them to overcome against an Iowa team that I think is flying a bit under the radar in 2020. 

The big question mark with Iowa is they go from a 3-year starter to an unknown at quarterback. Thing is, Iowa has what looks to be one of the better o-lines in the Big Ten and have great talent back at the skill positions. They are also rock solid on defense under Ferentz. Hawkeyes haven't allowed more than 20.4 ppg in each of the last 5 years. 

The other big thing here is the lack of fans. Only family members are being allowed to attend Big Ten games. I think it has the road teams showing some value, as this would be a much different handicap if it was going to be sold out Ross-Ade Stadium. Iowa is the better team on both sides. Give me the Hawkeyes -3! 

50* HOUSTON/NAVY NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Houston -14) 

I absolutely love Houston as a mere 14-point favorite against Navy. I think we are getting a great price on the Cougars after last week's 26-43 loss at home to BYU. The end result was not great, but they did lead No. 14 BYU 26-14 late in the 3rd quarter. That's a really good Cougars team that has a future NFL QB in Zach Wilson running their offense. 

I just think the talent gap between Houston and Navy is substantial and I would argue the Cougars are one of the better teams not ranked in the Top 25 right now. 

Navy has gone 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4, but could easily be 0-5 both SU and ATS. They beat Tulane 27-24 as a 5.5-point dog despite trailing 24-0 at the half. They squeaked out a 31-29 win over Temple as a 3.5-poing dog and defeated ECU 27-23 as a 3-point favorite. This team has also lost 55-3 to BYU (which I think is a great indicator for Houston) and 40-7 to Air Force. 

Key here is Houston has the guys up front to stop this Navy rushing attack in its tracks and should be able to score at will offensively, as the Midshipmen are giving up a ridiculous 274 yards/game and 6.1 yards/carry vs the run this year. Navy also can't play from behind, so the margin should only grow as this one goes on. Give me the Cougars -14! 

40* GA SOUTHERN/C CAROLINA NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Coastal Carolina -6) 

I'll take my chances here with the Chanticleers laying less than a touchdown at home against Georgia Southern. I've really been impressed with what I've seen out of this Coastal Carolina team in their last two games, which saw them knock off two of the top teams in the Sun Belt in Arkansas State and Louisiana. 

The Chanticleers are absolutely dominating the time of possession and should be able to do just that against the Eagles. Don't be fooled by Georgia Southern's defense coming in only giving up 19.0 ppg, as their opponents so far on average are only scoring 15.5 ppg. 

A lot of people want to point to how they almost won on the road against Louisiana, but I'm not as sold on the Ragin' Cajuns as others. The game I focus more on is the Eagles mere 27-26 win at home over Campbell. Note that Ga Southern trailed 20-6 in the 2nd half of that game. 

That's a Campbell team that Coastal dominated from the start and has since lost by 31 to App State (21-52) and 52 at Wake Forest (14-66). 

While traction is starting to grow on the Chanticleers, I still think there's value with this team right now. Give me Coastal Carolina -6! 

40* NC STATE/N CAROLINA NCAAF NO-BRAINER (N Carolina -14.5) 

I think the line here really says it all. You don't normally see a Top 25 matchup with a team laying more than two touchdowns, especially when both teams are ranked outside of the Top 10. More times than not, the big favorite not only covers, but wins going away. That's exactly what I expect to happen in this one. 

North Carolina is going to come out with a chip on their shoulder after last week's upset loss to FSU. Give credit to the Seminoles for getting that win, but the Tar Heels definitely shot themselves in the foot a number of times in that game. They nearly rallied from a 31-7 halftime deficit, as they lost 28-31. They outgained FSU 558 to 432. 

NC State is coming off a bit of a fluke win and cover over Duke, but the even bigger story is the injury suffered to starting quarterback Devin Leary. He had really been carrying this offense. Pretty big dropoff from him to backup Bailey Hockman and that's a problem because NC State must have success throwing to have any shot of keeping this close. 

That's because UNC is going to score at will against this NC State defense. While they haven't been terrible defensively in their last 3 games, those were against some sub-par offenses in Pitt, Virginia and Duke. In their first two games they gave up 42 to Wake Forest and 45 to Va Tech. I see the Tar Heels hitting 40+ in this one. Give me UNC -14.5! 

50* AUBURN/OLE MISS NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ole Miss +3.5) 

I love the value here with the Rebels catching more than a field goal at home against Auburn. I don't know why this Tigers team gets so much love, but to me they just aren't that great of a team. They had their hands full with Kentucky in their opener at home, were dominated at Georgia, should have lost at home to Arkansas and lost on the road at South Carolina. 

While Ole Miss is 1-3, two of their losses are two Alabama and Florida. They had a heartbreaking 1-point loss at Kentucky and last week lost 21-33 at Arkansas. The loss to the Razorbacks doesn't look great, but it was to be expected coming off that emotional loss to the Crimson Tide. Definitely didn't help matters that they turned it over 7 times. 

I look for Lane Kiffin's offense to get back on track in this one. Auburn has only forced 1 turnover in their last 3 games combined and are far from a juggernaut on the defensive side. Also, as bad as Ole Miss' defense is, I think they can get some stops against Bo Nix and that Tigers offense. Give me the Rebels +3.5! 

40* ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Illinois +19.5)

I think this is too good a price to pass up with Illinois. It's taken a minute, but Lovie Smith has the Fighting Illini trending in the right direction. While they lost to Cal in their bowl game to finish up with a losing record at 6-7, that was the first time since 2014 that they got to a bowl. Their 4 conference wins were their most since they won 4 back in 2010. 

One of those wins was a 24-23 upset over #6 Wisconsin as a massive 30-point underdog. With 14 starters back, including 9 on offense, this should be the best team to date in what will be the 5th year under Smith. 

I also think there's going to be some value with road teams in the Big Ten, as family members are the only fans that are being allowed in the stadiums. Home field is huge in the Big Ten and I got lot more confidence in Illinois keeping this close in a non-hostile environment. 

There's also a lot of hype with Wisconsin centered around red-shirt freshman quarterback Graham Mertz. Kid definitely has potential, but the Badgers offense is built for the run game. How much better can you really expect him to do than last year's starter Jack Coan, who completed 70% of his attempts with a 18-5 TD-INT ratio. Replacing the production of Jonathan Taylor won't be easy. Give me the Fighting Illini +19.5! 

50* TULSA/S FLORIDA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Tulsa -9.5)

This line has move up to Tulsa -10 at a lot of spots and I could see this thing continuing to climb as we get closer to this game. I think we are getting big time value with the Golden Hurricane laying single digits. 

Tulsa had their big game against No. 8 ranked Cincinnati postponed because of positive Covid tests for the Bearcats. Having nearly won at Oklahoma State and upsetting UCF on the road, there's no question they were excited for that game against a Top 10 team. I look for them to take out their frustration against USF. 

I played against the Bulls last week and lost. I laid double-digits with Temple and they ended up winning by just 2. The Owls did everything in their power to make that a game. USF had 31 points late in the 3rd quarter and only one scoring drive of more than 50 yards. 

This USF offense is not that good. They were shutout at Notre Dame and scored just 7 at Cincinnati. They also managed just 24 against ECU at home, who they lost to by 20. I think they are going to have a miserable time scoring against this Tulsa defense. Give me Tulsa -9.5! 

40* ARK ST/APP ST NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Arkansas St +14.5) 

Now that this line has creeped up over two touchdowns, I got no choice here but to take a shot with Arkansas State. I think this Red Wolves team is way undervalued because they use a two quarterback system. If you combine the stats of their two guys, people would be calling their signal caller a Heisman candidate. I know the defense hasn't looked great, but we have seen this team compete against some really good teams. They only lost by 7 at Memphis and won outright 35-31 at Kansas State. 

As for Appalachian State, this has been the best program in the Sun Belt for a while now, but as is the case with a lot of small schools, it can be hard to sustain that level of success. Scott Satterfield really built up this program, but he's now two years removed and last year's head coach Eli Drinkwitz left after one season. They are now on their 3rd head coach in 3 years. 

They beat Charlotte by 15 in their opener, but were only up 1 going into the 4th quarter. They lost ugly at Marshall, scoring just 7 points. That game against the Thundering Herd was on 9/19. They had a week off before playing Campbell, which is like having a bye. They haven't played since. It's been more than a month since this team has been tested on the field. If they aren't sharp, they could easily lose this game outright. Give me Arkansas State +14.5! 

40* GEORGIA/ALABAMA NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Georgia +4.5) 

I'm going to take the points to be safe, but I really like the Bulldogs to finally get that elusive win over Alabama that they have been so close to getting since Kirby Smart took over (both games they were up big and couldn't hold on). 

The big headline coming in is that Alabama won't have Nick Saban on the field, as he can't be with the team after testing positive for Covid 19. I know the line has dropped a couple points after the news came out, but I think this is a massive blow to the Crimson Tide's chances in this game. 

You also have to look at the line and think about how much people love to bet Alabama. Thing is, when the books make them a favorite of less than a touchdown, things typically don't go well for the Crimson Tide backs. Since 2017 Alabama has been a favorite of less than -7 on 6 ocasssions. They are just 2-4 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in those games. 

People are going to want to give the edge offensively to Alabama, but it's closer than you think. While Georgia is only scoring 36.0 ppg they have done so against teams that have allowed on average just 25.8 ppg (+10.2). Alabama is scoring 51.0 ppg but it's come against teams that on average allow 41.2 (+9.8). 

On the defensive side of the ball, Georgia has looked great and Alabama has looked a bit suspect. Bulldogs allowing just 12.3 ppg vs teams averaging 23.4 ppg (+11.1). Crimson Tide are allowing 30.3 vs teams averaging 31.4 (+1.1). 

We are going to find out just how good Mac Jones is as he finally faces a legit defense and one that is considered to have one of the best secondaries in the country. Give me the Bulldogs +4.5!  

40* TEXAS A&M/MISS STATE NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Miss State +7)

 After that big upset of LSU in their season opener, where the Bulldogs put up 44 points and over 600 yards of total offense, they have laid back-to-back eggs. First it was that ugly loss at home to Arkansas and last week they were rolled 24-2 at Kentucky. 

Turnovers have really plagued the Bulldogs. They had 4 turnovers against the Razorbacks and 6 last week against the Wildcats. They are now -9 in the turnover department thru 3 games. That’s about as bad as you can do with turnovers in 3 games. There should be some positive regression going forward.  

Note that if not for those turnovers Mississippi State might be 3-0. They outgained Arkansas 400 to 275 and Kentucky 295 to 157. In 3 SEC games they are averaging 443 yards/game and giving up 286 ypg.  

The big reason that I like them against Texas A&M, is we should see the Bulldogs air attack put up some big numbers against a suspect Aggies secondary. Opposing QBs are completing 71.6% of their attempts against this Texas A&M defense. Alabama had 435 passing yards on them and Florida put up 312. It’s also worth noting the Aggies defense has only forced 4 turnovers in 3 games.

I also give the motivation edge to the Bulldogs. This is a prime letdown spot for Texas A&M coming off two massive games against Alabama and Florida, both of which were ranked in the Top 5 when they faced them.

As for Mississippi State this is put up or shut up time, especially after getting called out by their new head coach Mike Leach. He basically came out and said that there’s going to be some changes. Guys who aren’t playing with the right attitude and effort aren’t going to see the field and might be kicked off the team. Give me the Bulldogs +7.  

50* OLE MISS/ARKANSAS NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Arkansas St +2.5) 

I absolutely love this spot with the Razorbacks as a small home dog against Ole Miss. Even though the Rebels come into this game off a loss, the hype around this team is sky-high after what they were able to do against Alabama. The Rebels went score-for-score with the Crimson Tide before eventually falling short 63-48. 

When you put up nearly 50 points and rack up 647 yards against Alabama, people take notice. I just think it has Ole Miss getting way too much respect on the road against a pissed off Arkansas team that has to feel a bit cheated with how things ended in last week's 28-30 loss at Auburn. 

Auburn QB Bo Nix fumbled the snap and then tried to spike it. You can't spike after a fumble and thus it was a backward pass. The ball was live and Arkansas recovered, however the refs ruled that because some players stopped pursuing the ball they couldn't award them the recovery. Tigers go down and kick the game-winning field goal with 7 seconds left. 

What people are going to overlook with Ole Miss and their great showing vs Alabama, is just how hard it's going to be for them to bounce back from that game. That is one Lane Kiffin and the Rebels had circled, as he use to be Saban's OC and there was all kind of talks about how Saban owns his former assistants. 

The other big thing is defense. Ole Miss doesn't play it. In their 3 games so far they have allowed 51 points to Florida, 41 to Kentucky and 63 to Alabama. They are giving up an average of 641 yards/game and 8.8 yards/play. Simply put, Arkansas is going to score and score a lot. 

The key here is the Razorbacks defense, which has flashed early under new DC Barry Odom. I think Arkansas will find a way to make enough stops against what I expect to be a sloppy and unmotivated Ole Miss team. Give me the Razorbacks +2.5! 

40* AUBURN/S CAROLINA NCAAF SHARP STAKE (S Carolina +3.5) 

I like the value here with the Gamecocks catching 3.5 at home against No. 15 Auburn.  I just don't feel that Auburn is as good as their ranking might lead people to believe.

They beat Kentucky 29-13 in their opener, but that was more evenly matched than the final score would indicate. UK had 1st and Goal from the 1 and didn't score before half (were trailing 8-7 at that time). Wildcats outgained the Tigers 384 to 324. 

Next time out they were absolutely no match for Georgia, losing 27-6 and getting outgained 442 to 216. They then were very fortunate to escape with a 30-28 win at home against Arkansas, as they were the benefit of a controversial call that had it gone the other way have ended the game with Arkansas winning 28-27. Instead they keep it and kick a FG to win it. Note Auburn only outgained the Razorbacks 446 to 437. 

South Carolina is just 1-2, but their two losses were a heartbreaker to Tennessee 31-27 and a 14-point loss to a very good Florida team. They got their first win last week in a 41-7 blowout win over Vandy. 

One of the big reasons I think Auburn is overvalued is Bo Nix has not made that big sophomore season jump that many were expecting. He's only completing 56.8% of his attempts. Last two games the Tigers have failed to reach 200 yards passing. They are going to have pto play right into the strength of South Carolina, which is much better vs the run than they are the pass. 

On the flip side of this, I've been impressed with Gamecocks QB Collin Hill and he should be in for a big day against a struggling Auburn secondary. Opposing QBs have completed 66% of their attempts with an average of 266 yards/game and 8.3 yards/attempt. Give me South Carolina +3.5! 

40* KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE NCAAF ATS SLAUGHTER (Kentucky +6) 

I see a ton of value here with Kentucky catching almost a TD on the road against the Volunteers. Even though the Wildcats come in off a 24-2 blowout win over Mississippi State, it still feels like the market is low on this team. Kentucky is just 1-2 overall, as they lost their opener 29-13 at Auburn and then lost 41-42 at home to Ole Miss. 

The game against Auburn was much closer than the 16-point margin. Kentucky beat themselves more than anything in that game. They then blew a 14-point 2nd half lead vs Ole Miss and lost the game because the kicker missed a PAT in OT. 

Tennessee's season has gone the opposite. They won their first two games, winning 31-27 at South Carolina and 35-12 at home vs Mizzu. Everyone was eager to see what they could do against a power like Georgia last week. It didn't go well. Vols lost 44-21 and it wasn't that close. Tenn was gifted 14-points off turnovers. They only finished the game with 214 total yards. 

Not only does that game show the Vols have a ways to go, but it's also a tough game for them to bounce back from. On top of the possibility of them hanging their heads from that loss, they also have a huge lookahead matchup with a home game against Alabama next Saturday. Give me Kentucky +6! 

50* BYU/HOUSTON NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Houston +5) 

I love the value here with the Cougars as a home dog against BYU. I not only think Houston will cover the number, but I like them to win this game outright. 

The Cougars come in ranked No. 14 in the country after their 4-0 start. While BYU does have a bunch of blowout wins on their resume, the schedule hasn't been all that tough with their 4 games against Navy, Troy, La Tech and UTSA. A far cry from what they were suppose to start the 2020 season with before covid hit (@ Utah, Mich St, @ Arizona St, @Minnesota. I like the talent on this BYU team, but this is not one of the 15 best teams in the country.

Houston had 5 different games postponed before finally getting to play their first game last week against Tulane. The Cougars showed some sloppiness early in that game, but ended up winning 49-31. A really remarkable win given they were -5 in the turnover department. 

When you see a score like 49-31, you instantly think their was no defense played. That wasn't the case. Houston's defense limited Tulane to just 211 total yards. Second year head coach Dana Holgorsen said last year he had the best defensive scout team in the history of college football. They definitely looked improved. 

That makes this a scary team with the talent they have on the offensive side of the ball. Give me the Cougars +5! 

50* GA STATE/ARKANSAS ST NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Arkansas State -3) 

*Analysis Coming* 

50* C CAROLINA/LAFAYETTE NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Coastal Carolina +7.5) 

This is an easy play on Coastal Carolina catching +7.5. The Chanticleers have been one of the big surprises early on in the Sun Belt. Coastal Carolina improved to 3-0 with a 52-23 win against Arkansas State. Note that's a Red Wolves team that was considered a contender in this conference. It's also an Ark Sate team that had just had just won at Kansas State and only lost by 7 at Memphis. 

Coastal Carolina is now in year 3 under head coach Jamey Chadwell. This was his best team coming into a year he's had and the Chanticleers got in all 15 spring practices. This team really believes they can make some noise in the SBC. No question they are going to be up for this one. 

Not to take anything away from the Ragin' Cajuns, who are now ranked No. 25 in the country. I just don't this is a Top 25 team. Sure they had a big upset win over ISU (31-14), but keep in mind they had two return TDs. They have since squeaked out a 34-31 win against Georgia State and 20-18 win over Georgia Southern. 

One big positive on the field that I see for the Chanticleers is they should be able to play to their strength offensively in the run game. CC comes in averaging 199 ypg and 4.6 yards/carry. Arkansas State's defense is giving up 191 ypg and 4.2 yards/carry. Give me the Chanticleers +7.5! 

40* ALABAMA/OLE MISS NCAAF STEAMROLLER (Ole Miss +24) 

All we keep hearing about with this game is how Nick Saban and Alabama have dominated when the Crimson Tide are facing a team that is coached by one of Saban's former assistants. This time it's Lane Kiffin with Ole Miss. 

Now I'm not giving the Rebels much of a shot of winning this game, but with the way they can put up points, I really like them to keep this within the number. Note we did see Alabama asked to cover a similar big number on the road against Missouri in their opener. They won the game 38-19 but didn't cover as a 28.5-point favorite. 

Another thing to keep in mind is this is a bit of a letdown spot for Alabama off that big game last week against Texas A&M. 

More than anything, I love that Ole Miss has the ability to play from behind and cover with the back door if things get out of hand early. Rebels feature one of the nations top passing attacks early on and we have seen the Crimson Tide pull off the dogs in the 2nd half (what they did against Missouri). Give me the Rebels +24! 

40* TEMPLE/NAVY NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Temple -3) 

The Owls are an easy play if you ask me. Temple is simply being undervalued because they have yet to play. We saw this on Thursday with Houston. The Cougars won and covered as 6.5-point favorites in a 49-31 win over Tulane and did so despite a -5 turnover margin, which tells you just how lopsided that was. 

With Houston's cover, teams who are playing their first game of the season against an opponent that has already played at least one game are 17-4-1 ATS this season. 

The other big thing here is how bad Navy has been. Outside of a good 2nd half against Tulane, where they rallied from a 24-0 deficit to win 27-24, this team has not been competitive. They lost their opener 55-3 at home to BYU getting outgained by the Cougars 580 to 149. They also lost 40-7 to Air Force getting outgained by the Falcons 410 to 241. 

This is not your typical Navy team that is one of the best in the country at running the football. Midshipmen are only averaging 138 ypg and 3.2 yards/carry. With how bad their defense is, Navy has no shot of being competitive if they can't run the ball. Give me the Owls -3! 

40* TEXAS TECH/IOWA ST NCAAF ATS SLAUGHTER (Texas Tech +12.5) 

Much like I played against Mississippi State last week coming off their big win over LSU, I want to fade the Cyclones off their big win over Oklahoma.  

It also has a lot to do with the number and the ability this Texas Tech offense has to put up points. It’s one thing for Iowa State to win the game, it’s another for them to win so by 13 or more points. 

 I definitely think this Texas Tech offense will be able to move the ball with their passing attack. Last week Oklahoma redshirt freshman Spencer Rattler went 25 of 36 for 300 yards and 2 scores. The week before TCU had 399 passing yards and would have had more if star quarterback Max Duggan played the entire game. He only played the 2nd half and had 241 yards and 3 scores.  

Texas Tech is currently 8th in the country in passing at 342.7 ypg. Starting QB Alan Bowman is questionable after being forced out of last week’s game against Kansas State with an ankle injury. With or without him I’m not to worried. Backup Henry Colombi replaced Bowman and went 30 of 42 for 244 yards and 2 scores.  

It’s also worth nothing that Texas Tech was in a really tough spot last week against K-State. They were doomed for a letdown after blowing that 15-point lead in the final 3 minutes of an overtime loss to rival Texas. They should be much more focused and motivated in this one.  Give me the Red Raiders +12.5! 

50* DUKE/SYRACUSE ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Duke -2.5) 

I'm going to gladly lay the 2.5 points with the Blue Devils on the road against the Orange. I just think we are getting an exceptional price with Duke because they come into this game at 0-4. Thing is, best case this team was going to be 1-3 with their schedule, as they have had to play Notre Dame Virginia and Virginia Tech. 

As for Syracuse, I think we are seeing them overvalued off back-to-back covers. They first lost by just 11 as a 21.5-point dog at Pitt and then won outright 37-20 as a 7.5-point home dog to Georgia Tech. I just don't think this team is very good. They were outgained by Pitt 342 to 171 and by the Yellow Jackets 453 to 357. 

If not for the fact that Orange defense has created 10 turnovers (+6 turnover margin), this line would be a lot more. Duke also has a -7 turnover margin, so there's some positive regression coming for them. Even if the Blue Devils can keep it at -1 or even in the turnover departement, I think they win here by at least a touchdown. Give me Duke -2.5! 

40* FLORIDA/TEXAS A&M NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Texas A&M +7) 

I was shocked to see the Aggies getting this many points at home. I just feel like we are seeing a big overreaction to how Texas A&M fared in last week’s game against Alabama. A lot of people thought the Aggies could make a game of it against the Crimson Tide and cover the +18 spread. They didn’t do either, as Alabama rolled to a 52-24 win.  

I think that has a lot of people firmly off the Texas A&M bandwagon, especially this week against a Florida team that is off to an impressive 2-0 start. Most notably Gators quarterback Kyle Trask, who is completing 72% of his attempts with a 10 to 1 TD-INT ratio.  

Given how Alabama’s Matt Jones just carved up the Aggies for 435 yards and 4 scores, most will just assume Trask does the same. I’m not going to say Trask will have a bad game, but I don’t think this Florida offense is as potent as what the Crimson Tide have to offer. Also should see a better performance from the Aggies D on their home field.  

Another thing here is that because so much focus has gone on Trask and the Florida offense, people are overlooking how bad their defense has been. Gators gave up 35 points in their opener at Ole Miss and then allowed 24 to South Carolina last week. Keep in mind this  Florida team finished 2019 giving up just 15.5 ppg and 305 yards/game.  

It’s really hard to win on the road, especially in the SEC, when you can’t stop the other team from scoring. 

I know the Aggies are far from a bottom feeder in the SEC, but there’s a chance Florida doesn’t give this team the respect they deserve after their poor showing against Alabama. This becomes even more of a concern when you factor in their home game against LSU next week.

Everyone has LSU circled on their schedules, especially Florida, who lost a back and forth thriller to the Tigers last year. Give me Texas A&M +7! 

40* VA TECH/N CAROLINA NCAAF ATS MASSACRE (Va Tech +5.5) 

I have this game much closer to a pick'em, making this an easy play on the Hokies. Virginia Tech is 2-0, despite the fact that they have been hit hard with injuries. Starting quarterback Hendon Hooker is one of several players who have missed the first game. 

However, Hooker is listed as probable on the injury report and I would expect several other Hokies to be back in action. With Hooker back in action, this Virginia Tech offense is going to be tough to stop. Hokies rushed for 314 in their opener against NC State and then had 324 in their win at Duke. Teams knew they were only looking to run and couldn't stop it. Now they are really going to pay if they sell out to try to stop it. 

As for North Carolina, this is a team that I haven't been all that impressed with. Tar Heels slept walk through the 1st half of their 31-6 win at Syracuse and then only beat BC on the road 26-22. I'm not even so sure with the lack of homefield advantage this year that UNC should even be favored. I certainly don't think they are the No. 8 best team in the country. 

This is also a spot Virginia Tech has thrived in. Hokies are 15-5 ATS last 20 road games when off a conference win by 7 or less (beat Duke 38-31) and are also 15-5 ATS last 20 as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. Give me Virginia Tech +5.5! 

40* TULANE/HOUSTON NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Houston -6.5) 

It's been a crazy start to the season for Houston. The Cougars have not played a game yet in 2020, as they have seen opponent after opponent not be able to play because of Covid. They have had 5 different games on the schedule fall through. As much as this team wants to get on the field, the extra practice certainly can't hurt. 

There's no debating on what kind of effort we are going to get from Houston. The Cougars are going to be jacked up for this one. I think Dana Holgorsen's team is going to come out and make a statement.

Houston went just 4-8 last year, which I think is playing into the number here a little and giving us a decent price at less than touchdown. Thing you have to keep in mind is starting QB D'Eriq King shocked the team by redshirting after 4 games. Not only did they lose King, they had a bunch of injuries. 

Not only that, they had a number of transfers sitting out last year. Holgorsen, who is now in year two, called his scout team defense the best in CFB history. Clearly that's an exaggeration, but still a big plus. 

Tulane beat them last year, so there's also that for motivation. Green Wave come in 2-1, but two of those wins are against Southern Miss and South Alabama. They also blew a 20+ point lead in a loss to Navy (Midshipmen have been outscored 95-10 in their other two games). 

Tulane is down one of their top rushers in Tyjae Spears and are going with true freshman Michael Pratt as their starting QB. Give me Houston -6.5! 

40* OKLAHOMA/IOWA ST NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Iowa State +7.5) 

I see some great value here with the Cyclones as a 7.5-point dog at home to Oklahoma. I think we got a little too accustomed to seeing this Sooners offense plug in a new QB under head coach Lincoln Riley and dominate. They did it two years ago when Kyler Murray replaced Baker Mayfield and last year with Jalen Hurts. Thing is, both Murray and Hurts were veteran transfers. 

This year they are turning to a red-shirt freshman in Spencer Rattler. Kid is definitely talented and is more than likely going to be a star by the time he leaves Norman, but he's really raw. We saw his lack of experience show in their huge upset loss to K-State last week. He threw 3 interceptions and just looked rattled once things started to turn in the Wildcats favor. 

My big concern with Rattler in 2020, is the Sooners don't have the rushing attack that they have had in previous years. They only managed 130 rushing yards on 35 attempts against K-State. This is a team that's put up 240+ each of the last two years on the ground and 200+ in all 3 years under Riley. ISU has an outstanding run defense. 

I think the Cyclones defense will be able to put a lot of pressure on Rattler and I see him struggling in his first road start. Iowa State is not an easy place to play. I really think the Cyclones can win here. 

ISU has won and covered all 4 times they have faced OU under Matt Campbell and teams like Oklahoma that are coming off a home loss as a 23+ favorite, where they allowed 30 or more points are a dismal 1-15-1 ATS in their next game if favored against an unranked opponent. These teams are just 9-8 SU and failing to cover by more than 10 ppg. Give me Iowa State +7.5! 

50* AUBURN/GEORGIA SEC *PLAY OF THE MONTH* (Georgia -6.5) 

I love the Bulldogs laying less than a touchdown at home against the Tigers. If you were watching college football last week, many of you probably at least saw that Georgia struggled early against Arkansas. They didn't take their first lead in the game until a 3rd quarter score put them up 13-10. 

They would go on to win that game 37-10, just missing out on covering as a 28-point favorite. Still I think that slow start has some second-guessing this team. 

The big key here is there's reason to believe Georgia's offense will start much stronger in this game. Bulldogs offense took off when Stetson Bennett replaced starter Dwan Mathis. They could see a massive upgrade at the position if USC transfer J.T. Daniels shows enough in practice to win the job. However, I got confidence in Bennett if Daniels can't go. 

Another huge factor for me and laying the 6.5 is I just don't see Auburn's offense being able to do much against this Georgia defense. Many thought this Bulldogs defense was the most talented unit in the country coming into the year and they were dominant against Arkansas. Give me Georgia -6.5! 

40* ARKANSAS/MISS ST NCAAF ATS MASSACRE (Arkansas +18) 

I think this is an ideal spot to fade Mississippi State. The Bulldogs come in off a massive upset of No. 6 LSU. Mississippi State won the game 44-34. They went off as a 14.5 point dog, but were much higher. In fact I cashed a 50* Top Play on the Bulldogs +17. 

I would be lying if I said I thought they were going to put up 40+ and KJ Costello was going to throw for 600+ yards. However, I bet on Mississippi State in that game because of what I thought of LSU. 

 The Tigers couldn’t have been more overrated coming into this season. The dropped all the way back to No. 20 in the polls and with the talent in the SEC, I think they will struggle to have a winning record.  

Regardless of how overrated LSU was, that doesn’t change how motivated Mississippi State was for that game. Any time you get a shot at the defending champion, you show up with your best and that’s what they did.  Asking them to bring that same intensity into this game is asking a lot. After losing their opener to Georgia at home, Arkansas has now lost 20 straight conference games.  

Not to mention the Bulldogs have a 3-game gauntlet coming up as they go @ Kentucky, host Texas A&M and then go @ Alabama.  

I’m not just taking Arkansas because of the spot. I liked the hire of head coach Sam Pittman and even more so offensive coordinator Kendall Briles. They also brought in former Florida QB Felipe Franks to guide the offense. I know they only scored 10 against Georgia, but that’s a defense that many thought might be the best overall unit in the country this year.  

I’m confident the Razorbacks will be able to move the ball against this Mississippi State defense, that clearly still has some learning to do in their new 3-3-5 scheme. I’ll take my chances with Arkansas keeping it within 17 or less. Give me the Razorbacks +18 

40* TCU/TEXAS NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (TCU +13) 

Hats off to Texas for their crazy come-from-behind win against Texas Tech last week. Longhorns trailed by 15 with 3:13 to play. They managed to score twice to force OT and then won it in extra time. 

That's great, but it doesn't change the fact that they trailed Texas Tech by 15 with 3 minutes to play. Or that their defense gave up 56 points and 447 yards. The same Texas Tech team that only beat Houston Baptist 35-33 in their opener. 

I just don't think Texas should be laying almost two TDs against this TCU team. Horned Frogs lost their opener to ISU, but backup Matthew Downing started the game, before starter Max Duggan took over in the 2nd half. For those that don't know, Duggan had a heart problem and was clearly shortly before the game, so that's why he didn't start. 

TCU's offense scored just 7 points in the 1st half under Downing. They had 27 in the 2nd half under Duggan. He's a difference maker and played a big role in TCU's 37-27 win over Texas last year, throwing for 273 yards and 2 scores, while also rushing for 72 yards and a score. Give me TCU +13! 

40* BAYLOR/W VIRGINIA NCAAF ATS SLAUGHTER (W Virginia +3) 

I'm going to back the Mountaineers as a slim home dog against Baylor on Saturday. I played West Virginia last week at +6.5 against Oklahoma State. They didn't get there in a 27-13 loss, but were a bit unfortunate to not do so. They killed themselves falling behind 17-0 early, thanks in large part to a fumble that the Cowboys returned 56 yards for a score. 

West Virginia was able to climb back within 7 points in the 4th quarter. They ended up outgaining Oklahoma State 353-342. 

I like what I've seen out of junior quarterback Jarret Doege and I think we are going to see the Mountaineers offense show up in a big way against the Bears. 

Don't overreact to Baylor's 47-14 blowout win over Kansas in their first game. That Jayhawks team is trash and that's a very misleading score. Baylor only outgained Kansas 352 to 328. They got 16 points from their defense/special teams (safety and two kickoff return TDs). They also added a garbage TD up 40-14 late in the 4th quarter. 

Keep in mind Baylor is expected to be down some this year. They are in the first year of new head coach Dave Aranda, who is a defensive guy in a game that has gotten really offensive over the last decade. Baylor's defense only returned 2 starters and lost their 3 studs up front. I also think it's concerning that Brewer only went 15 of 23 for 142 yards against that KU defense. Give me West Virginia +3! 

50* NC STATE/PITT NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Pittsburgh -14) 

I played against Pitt last week against Louisville and was a bit fortunate to get a push with the Cardinals at +3. I didn't think that Panthers defense was going to look as good as it did. They made a really good QB in Louisville's Malik Cunningham look bad. Cunningham was just 9 of 21 for 107 yards with a 1 TD and 3 INTs. Cunningham had thrown for 300+ in each of his first two games, including 307 and 3 scores against Miami the week before. 

Pitt should have no problem getting enough stops against this NC State team to pull away an easily cover the two touchdown spread. The Wolfpack had more than their fair share of troubles moving the ball against the Hokies last week. They only had 10 points midway thru the 3rd quarter and trailed 37-10 at that point. They added two TDs the rest of the way, but you got to think some of that was the Hokies calling off the dogs. 

Key here is that while the Panthers offense is a bit limited, they should have zero problem putting up points against this NC State defense. They just gave up 45 to Virginia Tech and the Hokies played without their starting QB Malik Hooker. They could not stop the run, giving up 314 yards on 41 attempts. This is after they allowed 42 the week before against a bad Wake Forest offense. Give me Pittsburgh -14! 

50* VA TECH/NC STATE *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Virginia Tech -6.5) 

I love the value here with the Hokies laying less than a touchdown at home against the Wolfpack. I don't know if it's the fact that NC State put up 45 points in last week's season opener against Wake Forest, but I don't know what the books are seeing that makes them think the Wolfpack can make a game of this. 

NC State had 270 yards on 49 rushing attempts against the Demon Deacons. They aren't going to sniff those kind of numbers against the Hokies. Virginia Tech has 10 returning starters on a defense that only gave up 139 ypg last year. I know Bud Foster is gone, but the defense should be improved. 

I also think you got to look at how much better the offense was last year once Hendon Hooker took over at QB. They put up 34.3 ppg in his 8 starts and he completed 61% of his attempts with a 13-2 TD-INT ratio. 

Hokies should have a field day here offensively against a NC State defense that allowed 42 points to Wake Forest. The same WF team that had 3 points thru 3 quarters the previous week against Clemson. Give me the Hokies -6.5! 

40* TENNESSEE/S CAROLINA NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Tennessee -3) 

I think we are getting a gift with the Volunteers only laying a field goal on the road against South Carolina. If there's a team that no one is talking about that could make some series noise in the SEC this year, I think Tennessee has to be at the top of that list. 

Sure the expectations are high, but no one is giving this team a shot at winning the East. It's all Georgia and Florida. I'm not saying they will, but they beat Georgia last year and played Florida tough. 

Tennessee is now in year three under Jeremy Pruitt and will have 17 returning starters. With a healthy Jarrett Guarantano at quarterback, the offense should take a huge jump this year. As for the defense, it's only gotten better since Pruitt arrived. Vols allowed 27.9 ppg in his first year with only 6 starters back and 21.7 ppg last year with only 5 starters back. 

South Carolina went just 4-8 last year and should be improved, I don't think they are anywhere close in terms of talent. I also think it's a big deal that Williams-Brice has a fan limit on games. Give me the Volunteers -3! 

50* MISS ST/LSU NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Mississippi State +17) 

I will gladly take the 17-points with Mike Leach and Mississippi State against LSU. Last year was something special, but I'm just not buying the Tigers being anywhere close to what they were given what they lost. LSU has just 8 starters back from their title team. 

Not only do they have to replace the Heisman winner in Joe Burrow, but WR Justin Jefferson and RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire both were 1st round picks in the NFL draft. It's not just the players either, LSU lost their passing game coordinator in Joe Brady and one of the best defensive coordinators coordinators in the country in Dave Aranda (head coach at Baylor). 

Say what you want about Leach, the guy knows how to coach offense and his teams at Washington State always seemed to be better than expected. I can think back to 2018 when they had only 10 starters back and went 11-2. I think he can do wonders with new quarterback K.J. Costello, who transferred in from Stanford. I also think the defense will be able to hold its own. It wouldn't shock me at all if the Bulldogs won this game. Give me Mississippi State +17! 

40* GEORGIA TECH/SYRACUSE CFB VEGAS INSIDER (Georgia Tech -7.5) 

The fact that Georgia Tech is laying more than a touchdown on the road against the Orange, tells you everything you need to know about how little the books think of this Syracuse team. 

I think a lot of people are going to look at this line and be inclined to take the points. Not me. As painful as it was to watch Georgia Tech commit turnover after turnover in their failed attempt to cover against UCF, they are 100% the better team in this matchup. 

Syracuse hung around at UNC in their opener, but the wheels fell off in the 2nd half and the Tar Heels wound up winning and covering 31-6. The Orange were able to cash in a cover as a 21.5-point dog against Pitt, but that was a lot more lopsided than the final. Panthers had a 342-171 edge in total yards 

I don't think Georgia Tech is getting enough credit for how good they have been given they had to start out the year against FSU and UCF. As long as they don't turn it over 5 times like they did against the Knights, I think the Yellow Jackets win here by double-digits without much problem. Give me Georgia Tech -7.5! 

40* LOUISVILLE/PITT NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Louisville +3) 

I think this is a prime spot to jump on the Cardinals after a disappointing showing at home against Miami. A lot of people were laying the -2.5 with Louisville in that game. Including myself.  It can be hard to back the same team that just cost you money the week before, especially when it never felt like Louisville was the right team the entire way.  

Cardinals took a 3-0 lead, but quickly fell behind 14-3 by the end of the 1st quarter. They would get it down to 7 twice in the 3rd quarter, only to give up a TD in a matter of seconds. First they gave up a 75 yard run, then it was a 75 yard pass.  I’m not about to say Louisville should have won that game. Even with a 516 to 485 edge in total yards and 29-19 advantage in first downs, Miami was the better team in that game.  

I do think Louisville hurt themselves in that game. Not finishing drives early and they were -3 in the turnover department. I just think Scott Satterfield and that staff will have the players full attention in practice.  I said this earlier in the season, the Cardinals have a bit time talent at quarterback in Malik Cunningham. They also got some really good playmakers at running back and receiver.  

Pittsburgh was suppose to field a great defense this year, at least until they lost 2nd-Team All-American defensive tackle Jaylen Twyman and one of their top secondary players in Damarri Mathis. Instead of 7 starters back they only return 5 and the loss of Twyman is big.  I get the defense shutout Austin Peay in their opener and held Syracuse to 10 points and 171 yards, but that’s nothing to be excited about. This is a massive step up in competition for them and we just saw what Louisville can do against a great defensive team. 

 I don’t love what I see out of the Pitt offense, especially given who they have played. While the Panthers are averaging 137 yards/game on the ground, they only managed 3.5 yards/carry. I think Louisville can really make them one dimensional and I just don’t see Pitt being able to keep pace. Give me the Cardinals +3.  

40* MIDD TENN/UTSA CFB SHARP STAKE (UTSA -6.5) 

I'm backing UTSA laying less than a touchdown at home against the Blue Raiders. I just don't know how Middle Tennessee's defense will be able to make enough stops to keep this close. The Blue Raiders lost 42-0 in their opener to Army and were outgained 368 to 184. That's a ton against a team like the Black Knights who don't throw the ball (shortens the game). They followed that up with a 47-14 loss to Troy, getting outgained 496-241. 

The books weren't even close with the spreads for either of those games. Middle Tennessee was only +3.5 against Army and the same +6.5 against Troy. I get UTSA isn't a great team, but they won their first two games and have a dual threat QB in Frank Harris (rushed for 155 yards and 5 scores in 2 games). Bad defenses against mobile quarterbacks, usually doesn't go well. Give me the Roadrunners -6.5! 

40* UAB/S ALABAMA NCAAF NO BRAINER (S Alabama +7.5) 

I played and won on the Jaguars in their 32-21 upset win at Southern Miss as a 12-point dog in Week 1. I've also played against UAB early on (@ Miami) and cashed. Hard for me to not take South Alabama catching more than a TD at home. I don't think it would be a shock at all if the Jags won this game. 

UAB gets a lot of love for what they have done, but last year's trip to the C-USA title game was real fluky. They weren't that good of a team and we saw that in the title game, which they lost 49-6 to FAU. They have been overpriced by the books in each of their first two, as they only beat Central Arkansas by 10 as a near 3 TD favorite in Week 1. Give me South Alabama +7.5! 

50* MIAMI/LOUISVILLE CFB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Louisville -2.5) 

We cashed on Scott Satterfield's Cardinals in Week 1. It wasn't the most lopsided of Covers. Louisville only won by 14 (35-21) as a 11.5-point favorite. Thing is the final score doesn't paint the right picture. Louisville dominated that game. They had a massive 487-248 edge in total yards with a 22-12 advantage in first downs. 

The good news is, I think it's helping us with the line on the Cardinals this week. It's not going to be much longer before people realize how good this Louisville team is. They got a star at quarterback in Malik Cunningham. He threw for 343 yards and 3 scores against the Hilltoppers. That kind of talent at QB with an experienced team is danger. 

Miami defeated UAB 35-14 as a 15.5-point favorite. A lot of people doubted the Hurricanes could cover that two+ TD spread. I think it now has the Hurricanes a bit overvalued. I had Miami in that game. I just didn't think the Blazers were all people were making them out to be. The Hurricanes had a talent edge across the board. They won't have that against Louisville. 

Also, that game was closer than the final score would lead on. Miami only led 17-14 midway through the 3rd quarter. I honestly expected a lot more out of the Hurricanes. I just don't know if Manny Diaz is the right guy at head coach for that program. Give me the Cardinals -2.5! 

40* UCF/GEORGIA TECH NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Georgia Tech +7.5) 

I couldn't have been more wrong with my assumption of Georgia Tech coming into this season. I just thought this whole transition from the triple-option to a more conventional offense would be a lot harder than it has. Head coach Geoff Collins has sped up the process. That's a good Florida State team that they just went on the road and beat. 

It wasn't just that the Yellow Jackets wanted it more against the Seminoles. They were the better team. It also feels like they have struck gold with true freshman quarterback Jeff Sims. He went 24 or 35 for 277 passing yards. He also rushed for 64 yards on 13 attempts. He did throw 2 picks, but for me he passed the eye test. He's why this team is a ahead of schedule. 

I know there's concern of a letdown off the big upset win, I just don't see it happening. I think Georgia Tech is playing with a chip on their shoulder and what better way to make a statement than back up that win with another win. This time against a top 15 team in UCF. One in which Collins has connections with (UCF assistant 2008-09). No way I'm passing up on the 7.5, but I like Georgia Tech to win this game. Give me the Yellow Jackets +7.5!

40* BOSTON COLLEGE/DUKE CFB VEGAS INSIDER (Boston College +6) 

The Eagles are a team I think is flying a bit under the radar in 2020. BC went out and hired Ohio State defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley to be their new head coach. Prior to that he spent 7 years as an NFL assistant. HE hired Frank Cignetti to be his OC and Tem Lukabu to be his DC. Both of which have coached at the NFL level.  

I know the offseason hasn’t been ideal for teams, but I just think the players are going to be all ears with these coaches and the Eagles are an experienced team with 15 starters back.  The big concern some might have is how they replace star running back A.J. Dillon and starting quarterback Anthony Brown.  One of the first things Hafley did was go out and get Notre Dame transfer quarterback Phil Jorkovec, who many considered a Top 5 option at the position coming out of HS.  

I know they haven’t named the starter, but I would be shocked if it’s not Jorkovec.  As for Dillon, BC has their next star back ready to burst onto the season in junior David Bailey. Guy quietly rushed for 844 yards and 7 scores as Dillon’s backup. He also averaged 5.7 yards/carry, a better mark than Dillon, who was at 5.3 ypc.  

Add in what should be one of, if not, the best OL in the ACC and an underrated receiving corps that will feature sophomore wide out Jaelen Gill, a transfer who followed Hafley here from the Buckeyes.  Defense has been a problem, but that’s where Hafley and Lukabu come into play. I think he’ll be able to put together a game-plan for Duke.

This is a letdown for Duke. It’s a big deal playing at Notre Dame and they went into South Bend thinking they could upset a Top 10 team in the Irish. Give me Boston College +5.5!  

40* W KENTUCKY/LOUISVILLE NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Louisville -11.5)

Few teams had a bigger positive turnaround from 2018 to 2019 than the Cardinals. Louisville finished 8-5, which they capped off with a 38-28 upset win over Mississippi State in the Music City Bowl.  

No one was expecting that after they finished 2018 a mere 2-10. They went from going without a single conference win to Tying for the 3rd best mark in the ACC at 5-3.  

They did all of this in the first year under head coach Scott Satterfield, who went 31-11 over his final 4 seasons at App St.  

Satterfield did step into a better situation than it may have appeared. A big reason they went 2-10 in 2018 is the players quit playing for previous head coach Bobby Pitrino.  Regardless, he proved that his success with the Mountaineers was no fluke.  

Louisville has a ton of talent back on both sides of the ball, including one of the top QBs in the ACC in Micale Cunningham. I’m really big on teams with a lot of continuity this year. I just think it makes all the difference with the lack of offseason work we had due to covid.  Cardinals also got in 7 spring practices. Might not seem like a big deal, but the ATS results early are definitely favoring teams that got to practice some in the spring. 

 I just don’t think people realize how good this team is. This is not say Western Kentucky won’t be a threat in C-USA this year, I just feel they are outclassed across the board in this matchup.  

They didn’t get any spring practices in and while there’s reason to be optimistic with Maryland grad transfer Tyrrell Pigrom at quarterback, the lack of an offseason will 100% make that transition a lot harder than it would have been in a normal year.  

These two teams played last year on a neutral site and Louisville won that game by 38-21 (led 31-7 and had a 415-288 edge in total yards.  I would be shocked if Louisville doesn’t win this game by at least 14 points. Give me the Cardinals -11.5! 

50* GA TECH/FLORIDA ST NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Florida St -12)

I got no problem laying less than 2 touchdowns on Florida State against the Yellow Jackets. I absolutely loved the hire of Mike Norvell as their new head coach. Norvell is an offensive genius that did some big things with Memphis. He's all kinds of talent to work with, as FSU returns 7 starters, including junior QB James Blackman. 

As for Georgia Tech, they are still in a major rebuilding phase. Last year under new head coach Geoff Collins, the Yellow Jackets parted ways with the option. That's a real tough transition as all the kids the recruited were for the option attack. This is a 3-4 year project before we see some real results. 

With Florida State returning nearly their entire defense and expected to have one of the top defensive lines in the country, I just don't know how the Yellow Jackets are going to score enough to keep this close enough to cover. FSU is simply more talented across the board on both sides of the football. Give me the Seminoles -12! 

40* UAB/MIAMI (FL) NCAAF STEAMROLLER (Miami -13.5) 

I was lucky enough to jump on the Hurricanes at -13.5 before it jumped to -14 and even -14.5. Clearly -13.5 is better than -14, but I still would recommend a play on Miami at the current line. 

Last year couldn't have ended much worse than it did. Miami closed the year on a 3-game losing streak. One of those a 24-30 loss as a 20-point favorite against FIU. They were also shutout in a 14-0 loss to Louisiana Tech in their bowl game. 

You don't think this team had a chip on their shoulder in the offseason. I absolutely love the addition of Houston transfer D'Eriq King at quarterback. In 19 starts with Houston he completed 62% of his pass attempts with a 50-10 TD/INT ratio. He also rushed for 1,426 yards (5.6 ypc). He gives this team the spark needed to get this thing turned around in Manny Diaz's second season. 

As for UAB, who played in last year's C-USA title game and are the favorite to win their division and get back there in 2020, I don't think this team is as good as people think.

They won 9 games last year, 8 of those were against the likes of Alabama St, Akron, South Alabama, Rice, UTSA, Old Dominion, UTEP and North Texas. None of those teams finished better than 4-8. Their only win vs a team with a winning record was LA Tech, but that was one of the games the Bulldogs had star QB J'Mar Smith suspended. Give me Miami -13.5! 

40* ARKANSAS ST/MEMPHIS CFB SHARP STAKE (Memphis -17.5) 

I know Memphis lost head coach Mike Norvell to Florida State. I also know they are up against an Arkansas State team that is one of the better squads in the Sun Belt. The Red Wolves also have a couple of solid option at quarter. 

I just don't think it's enough for Arkansas State to make a game of this. The big thing you have to keep in mind with Norvell's departure, is the fact that they hired within, promoting offensive line coach Ryan Silverfield. They also bring back offensive coordinator Kevin Johns. 

That continuity in the offense is huge. So is the return of senior quarterback Brady White. The loss of running back Kenneth Gainwell is a big blow, but they got talent at that position and should continue to get quality production out of the position with how much defenses will have to respect White and the passing game. 

The only thing that figures to slow down Memphis is turnovers. If they protect the ball, they should put up a big number in this game. Arkansas State has just 6 starters back (lost 7 of top 9 tacklers) on a defense that gave up 478 ypg and 34.2 ppg. 

The Tigers also don't figure to be all offense. I loved the hire of former Colorado head coach Mike MacIntyre as the new DC. MacIntyre will take over a unit that returns 8 starters from a unit that gave up just 26.4 ppg and 384 ypg. Both top marks in the last 5 years. Give me the Tigers -17.5! 

50* S ALABAMA/S MISS NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (South Alabama +15) 

I will gladly take the points with South Alabama in Thursday's matchup with Southern Miss. I'm just not that high on the Golden Eagles this year. There's a lot of hype around senior QB Jack Abraham, but he lost his top wideout and big deep threat in Quez Watkins (64 catches, 1,178 yards, 18.4 avg, 6 TDs).

Southern Miss also has a different offense now with offensive coordinator Matt Kubik coming over from ULM. Changing an offense can be tough to adjust to in one offseason and this has been anything but a normal offseason. 

The Golden Eagles 7-6 record is also a bit misleading. Their only win over a FBS team that finished with a record better than 3-5 was a 37-2 win over UAB, who I wasn't all that impressed with even though they made it to the C-USA title game (lost 49-6 to UAB). 

As for South Alabama, I like 3rd year head coach Steve Campbell. This team went just 2-10 last season, but played Nebraska tough in their opener (lost by 14 as a 35-point dog) and were a profitable 7-5 ATS on the season. 

The Jaguars have 15 starters back including sophomore quarterback Desmond Trotter, who started the last 4. Note that in the 8 games before Trotter took over SAU averaged just 14.6 ppg and 290 ypg. With him the offense improved to 26.0 ppg and 409 ypg. He's one of 8 starters back on offense. 

They also got 7 guys back on a defense that was better than expected last year. Despite only returning 4 starters, the Jags allowed just 30.7 ppg after giving up 38.8 ppg the previous year. 

I just think we are getting a great price on South Alabama because of their poor record. A couple breaks go their way and I could see them winning this game outright. Give me the Jaguars +15! 

40* NCAAF TENN/INDIANA GATOR BOWL NO-BRAINER (Tennessee -2.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Volunteers as a slim 2.5-point favorite against the Hoosiers in the Gator Bowl. What a remarkable turnaround by the Vols this season. I don’t think anyone was thinking Tennessee could get to a bowl game after their 1-4 start, which included upset losses at home to Georgia State and BYU, as well as blowout losses to Florida and Georgia.

Sure the schedule got a lot easier, but this team deserves a lot of credit for closing out the season with 5 straight wins. They were also a money-maker for those that backed them, going 6-1 ATS in their last 7. 

As great as it would be for Indiana to get their first bowl win, the Hoosiers 8-4 record is a bit fluky, as they didn’t beat a single FBS team that finished the year with a winning record. They also had 3 wins by 7 or less points.  I get Tennessee’s resume in terms of wins isn’t much better, but they did at least have a couple of wins over bowl teams in Mississippi State and Kentucky, as well as a win over Missouri who would have been in a bowl if not for being banned from postseason play.  

Another thing is the Vols defense is built for this Indiana offense. Hoosiers were 13th in passing compared to 100th in rushing and Tennessee’s defense ranked 17th against the pass this year (28th overall in total defense 29th in scoring).  Give me Tennessee -2.5! 

50* NCAAF SUGAR BOWL VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Baylor +5)

Given what I’ve said about avoiding teams in this spot (losing their last game to miss out on the playoffs), you might think I’m going to stay clear of this one. However, I really like Baylor in this matchup. Georgia’s at the point where it’s national championship or bust. Baylor wants to get to that point, but are not there. They are still in the midst of a massive turnaround under head coach Matt Rhule. I think they show up here. 

Keep in mind Baylor hasn’t played in a bowl of this magnitude since they faced off against Michigan State in the 2014 Cotton Bowl.  Also, we saw Georgia fail to play well in this spot a year ago, losing by 7 as a 12-point favorite to Texas.  This line has also moved quite a bit in favor of Baylor, as it opened Georgia -7.5.

Bulldogs got a lot of guys sitting out either with injuries or to prepare to the draft. They have been decimated at wide receiver all year and that’s still a major problem. They are also going to be down 3 offensive linemen. As good as Jake Fromm is, they don’t have the weapons around him to be successful and even when they played bad teams they struggled to score. I think Baylor holds them in check and likely wins outright.  Give me the Bears +5! 

40* NCAAF ROSE BOWL ATS MASSACRE (Oregon +3) 

I'll take my chances here with the Ducks as a 3-point dog against the Badgers. As much as the numbers suggest these two teams are even, I think Oregon is the more talented team and they just might have been the 4th best team in the country. I loved how they put that crushing loss to ASU behind them and went out and routed Utah in the Pac-12 title game. I think the Ducks are going to be looking to send a message. 

 As for Wisconsin, they still might be wondering what happened in that Big Ten title game to Ohio State, where let a 21-7 halftime lead turn into a 21-34 loss.  Also the Badgers’ offense really relies a lot on running back Johanthan Taylor and rightfully so, but I think he struggles to have a big impact in this game. Oregon was 12th in the country against the run. I see this coming down to QB play and Herbert is light years better than Wisconsin’s Jack Coan. give me Oregon +3! 

50* NCAAF ALAMO BOWL SHARP TOP PLAY (Texas +7.5)

I'll gladly take my chances here with Texas covering as a 7.5-point dog against Utah. This is one of those situational spots that I look for right away when I start handicapping bowl games and that’s teams who lost in their final game to basically eliminate themselves from the playoffs. As much respect as I have for Kyle Whittingham and I know his bowl record is great, this an awful spot for the Utes.  

For Texas it’s a second straight year getting a team in this spot. Last year they faced Georgia after the Bulldogs blew their shot at the playoffs with a loss to Alabama in the SEC title game. Longhorns went on to win that game 28-21 as a 12-point underdog. They also improved to 2-0 under Tom Herman in bowls, as they crushed Missouri 33-16 as a 3-point dog in 2017. Herman also won his own bowl while at Houston and that too was a dog, as the Cougars defeated FSU 38-24 as a 7-point dog.  

I’m simply not going to get too much into the numbers, because I just don’t think they matter. It’s just near impossible for a team like Utah, who lost in the Pac-12 title game to miss out on the playoffs, to find any kind of motivation in a game like this.  Give me the Longhorns +7.5! 

50* NCAAF LIBERTY BOWL SHARP TOP PLAY (Kansas State +3) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Kansas State getting points against the Midshipmen. I just don't think Navy is as good as people think. Midshipmen beat up on a lot of bad teams and when they took a step up in competition they often weren't up to the task, especially on defense. When Navy wasn't playing the likes of ECU, Holy Cross, Tulsa, USF, UConn and Army they gave up 37 ppg. 

Kansas State is a team to watch out for under head coach Chris Klieman. In his first year on the job he led the team to a win over Oklahoma and Mississippi State while also only losing by 3 to Texas. I just think this blue collar team will be locked in and have taken bowl practices 100%. I'm not saying they will completely shutdown Navy's option, but I think they can get enough stops to where their offense can create the separation needed to win here going away. Give me the Wildcats +3! 

40* NCAAF SUN BOWL ATS MASSACRE (Florida State +4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Seminoles cashing in as a 4.5-point dog in the Sun Bowl against Arizona State. I just don't get why the Sun Devils are laying this big of a number here. It's not like Arizona State is at full strength, as star running back Eno Benjamin and top wide out Brandon Aiyuk are both sitting out this game to prepare for the draft. Sun Devils also had a number of their offensive coaches get canned before the bowl, so there's just no chemistry for this offense going into this game. 

Florida State will be without stud running back Cam Akers, but I just feel like too much is being made of that. While he's a special player, they are poised to still have plenty of success in this one, as they had the nations 33rd ranked pass offense and will be up against a ASU defense that ranked 114th against the pass. Give me Florida State +4.5! 

50* NCAAF ORANGE BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Florida -14) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Gators laying it on Virginia. It's a joke that the committee even put the Cavaliers in a New Year's Bowl. They won 9 games, but almost all of those were against a watered-down ACC. They lost by 15 to Notre Dame and were absolutely destroyed by Clemson in the ACC title game. 

Despite going 10-2, I just think people don't realize how good this Florida team is. Everyone is raving about LSU and they had a 28-21 lead in the 2nd half against LSU. Their only other loss was a mere 7-point defeat to Georgia, where they played about as bad as they could. 

Virginia's defense is not that good and they could be in real trouble here. Cavaliers are much better at stopping the run than the pass. That's not going to help them against the Gators, as Florida brings in the nations 17th ranked passing attack. 

Virginia is also not built to play from behind which they surely will in this game, as the Cavaliers finished a mere 112th in passing. They were a respectable 37th in rushing, but I don't see them having much success in that department either. Give me the Gators -14! 

40* NCAAF REDBOX BOWL ATS NO-BRAINER (California -6) 

I'll take my chances here with the Golden Bears winning by at least a touchdown against the Fighting Illini. I think a lot of people are going to look at this line and have a hard time understanding why a mediocre Cal team is laying this many points with how much they struggle to score. 

What people fail to realize with the Golden Bears is they were a different team when quarterback Chase Garbers was healthy. They were 6-0 in games he started and finished and 1-5 when he either left with an injury or didn't play. The offense is still limited with him, but Illinois is a team they can have success against, especially considering the Illini ranked a mere 110th vs the run. 

As for the Illinois offense, it's hard to see them doing a lot against this stingy Cal defense, especially when you factor in that the Illini were 120th in the country in total offense, averaging just 319.7 ypg. They were 110th in passing and 93rd in rushing and will be facing a Cal defense that finished 26th against the run. Give me the Golden Bears -6! 

40* NCAAF CAMPING WORLD BOWL ATS NO-BRAINER (ISU +3.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Cyclones as a 3.5-point dog against the Irish in the Camping World Bowl. Notre Dame ranked No. 15 and 10-2 compared to ISU at just 7-5. 

 I think this line is begging for the public to take the Irish and from what I’m seeing that’s the case with more than 70% of the bets on ND.  I just don’t know that I’m quite a believer in this Irish team. Their best wins were against Va Tech, USC, Virginia and Navy. They trailed Virginia at the half, beat USC by 3 and Va Tech by 2. How motivated are the Irish playing in the Camping World Bowl after playing in the CFP last year and expecting to get back to it this year?

Iowa State definitely a lot better than their record. They were a 2-point conversion away from beating Oklahoma on the road and lost in the final seconds at Baylor, two teams who played for Big 12 title.  Notre Dame averaged 177 rushing yards and 253 passing yards, but was against teams that allowed 155 on the ground and 238 via the pass. Two good defenses ND faced in Georgia and Michigan they did next to nothing. Scored 17 points 321 yards against Georgia and 14 points 180 yards vs Michigan. Both games failed to rush for 50 yards. ISU 33rd vs the run giving up 133.8 ypg. only gave up 3.9 yards/carry.  

Cyclones are 15-3 ATS under Campbell vs teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game and 20-7 ATS as a dog, 6-0 ATS with 2 or more weeks to prepare. Give me Iowa State +3.5! 

50* NCAAF HOLIDAY BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Iowa -2) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hawkeyes laying less than a field goal against the Trojans. Very contrasting styles with USC being up tempo want to outscore teams, Iowa great defensive team want to grind out victories. My money is on the Iowa defense winning out. 

USC's big strength is their talent at WR. Want to attack deep, Iowa does a great job of keeping teams in front of them not giving up big play.  Trojans have no running game. Will be one dimensional.  

Trojans QB Slovis has been good, but had two games with 3 picks. He’s also not been protected well. Sacked 18 times last 7 games he’s played.  Iowa’s offense has held them back this year, but they were better down the stretch and I think there’s plenty of holes in this USC defense that was 83rd in total defense and ranked 76th against the run and 99th vs pass. Iowa favorite of -6 or less 13 times since 2015 won and covered all 13. Give me the Hawkeyes -2! 

40* NCAAF TEXAS BOWL ATS KNOCKOUT (Texas A&M -6.5) 

Jimbo Fisher 6-2 bowls (1-0 at Texas A&M) - Last year absolutely trounced NC State 52-13 as a similar priced 7-point favorite. Outgained Wolfpack 541 to 273. Aggies only went 7-5, but all 5 losses were against teams who at the time were ranked in the Top 10. Three different times they played the No. 1 team in the country (Clemson, Alabama and LSU).  While some of those were pretty lopsided, you could definitely argue this is the best 7-win team in the country.  

Mike Gundy 9-4 bowls, won 3 straight, last year beat Missouri 38-33 as a 8-point dog. However, Cowboys best win this season was at ISU in a game they probably shouldn’t have won, Outgained by 66 yards and had just 14 first downs to Cyclones 30. Only 3 scores came on TDs of 50 yards or more, also had a defensive score. OK State potentially without 2 best players in WR Tylan Wallace and QB Spencer Sanders. Do have an elite back in Chuba Hubbard, but I just wonder if he will be able to have success against a really good Aggies defense that was 29th against the run. Allowed just 4 yards/carry almost a full yard under opponents average.  Give me Texas A&M -6.5! 

40* NCAAF MILITARY BOWL ATS SLAUGHTER (UNC -4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Tar Heels making easy work of Temple. I just don't get the love for this Owls team. They went just 5-3 in the AAC and if not for a horrible start by Memphis in their upset win over the Tigers, they would have finished 4-4 and failed to beat any of the top teams. The defense for Temple was great against all those bad offenses they faced, but against the better offenses they struggled and this UNC offense is the real deal. 

Mack Brown has really changed things around with the Tar Heels in year one and he's got a very respectable 13-8 record in bowl games. No doubt UNC will be motivated in their first bowl game with him. As for Temple head coach Rod Carey, his teams have gone 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS in bowl games with the average loss by 25 ppg. Clearly he doesn't know how to get his team ready for postseason play and more than anything the Owls are outmatched in this one. Give me North Carolina -4.5! 

40* NCAAF INDEPENDENCE BOWL ATS MASSACRE (Louisiana Tech +6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs covering the 6.5-point spread against Miami in the Independence Bowl. I actually think Louisiana Tech is going to win this game outright. The Hurricanes closed out the regular-season with back-to-back losses to FIU and Duke, two teams they should have beat no problem. 

I just don't see them flipping the switch here against the Bulldogs. Miami's got several players skipping the bowl game to prepare for the draft. That includes 3 of their top guys in the front even, with senior linebacker Michael Pinckney and defensive ends Trevon Hill and Jonathan Garvin. 

Louisiana Tech will have no problem getting up and taking advantage of an uninterested Miami team. Bulldogs will have plenty of support with this feeling a lot like a home game with it being played in Shreveport. Not to mention the chance to beat a storied program like the Hurricanes. Give me Louisiana Tech +6.5! 

40* UCF/MARSHALL GASPARILLA BOWL ATS NO-BRAINER (UCF -15) 

I'll take my chances here with UCF now that this line has dropped down to 15. I just don't get why the public is all over Marshall in this game. The Knights are hands down the better team. UCF went 9-3, but were dangerously close to another 12-0 regular season, as those 3 losses came by 7-points or less. 

While not head-to-head, I do think it's worth noting that UCF beat the best team in C-USA, FAU, by a score of 48-14 and led 42-6 in the 4th quarter. Marshall lost to AAC runner-up Cincinnati by a final score of 52-14. The Knights also should benefit from this game being played so close to home, as it's in St. Petersburg. Give me UCF -15!