50* NCAAF PUBLIC MASSACRE PLAY OF THE MONTH (Baylor +3)

I'll gladly take my chances here with Baylor as a home dog against the Cyclones. I want to make it clear I love ISU head coach Matt Campbell and was on the Cyclones last week in their blowout win over ULM. I just think people are sleeping on this Baylor team. Matt Rhule has rebuilt this program the right way and we are now in year 3 of him at Waco. 

They went 1-11 in his first year and followed that up by going 7-6 with a bowl win. They got 15 starters back, including a talented jr QB in Charlie Brewer. People just haven't taken notice because of their easy schedule. They went through the motions in last week's 21-13 win at Rice. That was not as close as the final score. 

I think Baylor's defense will be the difference here. We saw Iowa State's offense struggle at home against both UNI and Iowa. BIg thing people overlook with that Iowa game is because of all the rain the Hawkeyes couldn't get a pass rush going with the sloppy field. That's their strength. The loss of running back David Montgomery and wide out Hakeem Butler are bigger than anticipated. The wrong team is favored here. Give me Baylor +3! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (C Michigan +17) 

I'll take my chances here with the Chippewas getting 17-points against in-state rival Western Michigan. I think we are getting an exceptional price on Central Michigan because they are down starting quarterback Quinten Dormady. I don't think it's a severe dropoff at all to backup David Moore, especially against what I think is a pretty weak Broncos defense. 

I actually Western Michigan has the bigger injuries on the offensive side of the ball. They are down their No. 1 wide out in D'Wayne Eskridge and their top back, Levante Bellamy is questionable to play. Central Michigan just held the Hurricanes to 17 points on the road, so there's more than enough reason to think they keep the Broncos from going off. Give me the Chippewas +17! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS KNOCKOUT (Vanderbilt -6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Vanderbilt winning by at least a touchdown at home against Northern Illinois. Definitely not paying a premium on a Commodores team that is 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS. Thing is, we knew this start was coming. Vandy has had to host two of the best teams in the country in LSU and Georgia and their lone road game was at Purdue. No question that the Commodores are better than what the numbers say. 

As for Northern Illinois, this is a team I was done on coming into the year. People might be willing to give them a pass for their 1-2 start considering their two defeats are at Utah and Nebraska. Thing is, they weren't competitive in either of those games. I also think people overlook that they were tied 10-10 in the 4th quarter with FCS foe Illinois State in their opener. 

Vandy might be the worst SEC team, but they are 7-points better than Northern Illinois. Especially with the game being at home and the team desperate for their first win of 2019. Give me the Commodores -6.5! 

50* NCAAF EARLY BIRD PLAY OF THE MONTH (Texas Tech +27.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Texas Tech as a near 4-touchdown dog against the Sooners. Oklahoma is getting all kinds of love right now. They are 3-0 with impressive wins over Houston (49-31) and UCLA (48-14). Red Raiders on the other hand are a team no one wants anything to do with coming off a 28-14 loss at Arizona and down starting quarterback Alan Bowman. 

It seems like Texas Tech has an endless supply of quarterbacks. They got two guys who can make plays in Jett Duffey and Jackson Tyner. Both are going to play and I think the uncertainty of what to expect will make it hard for Oklahoma to prepare for this game. 

Both teams are coming off a bye, but coming into 2019, the Sooners were just 1-3 under Lincoln Riley off a bye. That's a significant stat given they have only lost 4 games since he took over. Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells went 9-2 off a bye at Utah State. 

We know the Red Raiders are gonna bring it and I think it's really going to benefit them having just faced a similar quarterback to Jalen Hurts in Arizona's Khalil Tate. It could be something like 52-27 and we cash a winner with points to spare. Give me the Red Raiders +27.5! 

40* NCAAF NAVY/MEMPHIS ATS KNOCKOUT (Memphis -10.5) 

I'll take my chances here and lay the points with Memphis at home. I’m expecting Navy to be better than the team that went 3-10 last year, but I just don’t know that a couple of blowout wins over Holy Cross and East Carolina are enough for me to take them in this spot.

Not only might the Midshipmen be overvalued right now, but you have to think Memphis will be 100% locked in for this matchup. They have to be sick and tired of losing to this Navy team.

I really think having that extra week to prepare for the Midshipmen’s option attack is huge and I also feel like this might be one of the better defenses the Tigers have fielded under head coach Mike Norvell. I just don’t know that it’s as obvious to people who don’t watch this team week-to-week. Everyone thinks Cal has this amazing defense and the Golden Bears gave up 525 yards to Ole Miss. Again, Memphis held them to a mere 173 yards.

If you can keep an option team from sustaining drives and put points on the board, it’s really hard for that option team to get back in the game. Bad things tend to happen to run-first teams when they are forced to throw a lot.

Memphis has covered 5 of their last 6 at home, are 6-1 ATS last 7 inside AAC play and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 off a bye week. Navy is 2-5-1 ATS last 8 on the road, 2-6-1 ATS. Give me Memphis -10.5!

40* ND/GEORGIA PRIME TIME ATS DESTROYER (Notre Dame +14.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Fighting Irish at this price. The only reason I can think that the public isn’t on Notre Dame more, is because of all the talk with the Irish shouldn’t have made the playoffs, despite going 12-0. Georgia is one of those teams that thought they deserved that spot of Notre Dame and felt justified of that after the Irish lost 30-3 to Clemson in the semifinals. It's just assumed ND can't win the big game. 

I just think that makes a whole lot of sense. It would one thing if Clemson didn’t go out an embarrass Alabama in the title game. I have to think Notre Dame is sick and tired of hearing about how they didn’t deserve to make it. The Irish can quiet everyone with a strong showing against Georgia and I guarantee you they don’t just think they can keep it close. They believe they can win this game.

I don’t know if they can, but I definitely think they are good enough to keep it within 14. I mean the Bulldogs did only beat Vandy by 24 on the road and Notre Dame is way more talented than the Commodores. I also really like Ian Book at quarterback and when you got a talent like that under center you got a shot to win any game you play.

This isn’t the first time Georgia has been overvalued in this spot. Bulldogs are just 6-16 ATS last 22 at home after a cover as a double-digit favorite. Give me the Irish +14.5! 

50* OK STATE/TEXAS BIG 12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Texas -5) 

I think we all knew it was just a matter of time before Tom Herman had Texas back into the national spotlight. After going 7-6 in his first year they went 10-4 last year. With just 8 starters back, a lot of people were thinking Texas would struggle this year. 

After watching that game against LSU, that's not the case. As long as Sam Ehlinger is healthy, this team is going to be tough to beat. The defense is the only thing keeping them being a legit national title contender. 

I love Mike Gundy and I think they are definitely a team that came into this season undervalued. However, I don't think they got the goods here to win on the road with an inexperienced quarterback in Spencer Sanders. OK State won 40-21 at Tulsa last week, but were just 12 of 22 for 169 yards through the air. They aren't going to run on this Texas defense and I just don't see them keeping pace here. Give me the Longhorns -5! 

40* NCAAF UNDERVALUED DOG OF THE WEEK (South Carolina +9.5)

I'll gladly take my chances here with South Carolina getting almost double-digits at Missouri. I was really impressed with how well the Gamecocks played against Alabama last week. They were only down 24-13 with less than 10 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. 

There was some panic when starting quarterback Jake Bentley suffered a season-ending injury, but not anymore. Backup Ryan Hilinski went 36 of 57 for 324 yards and 2 scores against a team just about everyone expects to play for a national championship. 

I get Missouri rebounded from an ugly loss at Wyoming to start the year, but I don't think a team that loses to a middle of the pack MWC team should be laying this kind of number. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Gamecocks won outright. Give me South Carolina +9.5! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (SMU +9.5) 

I'll take my chances here as a near double-digit dog against the Horned Frogs. I really like what I've seen out of this SMU team and you know they are going to be jacked up for this one. Any time one of these smaller Texas schools gets to play one of the big boys, they give it all they got. 

Maybe the least talked about transfer QB is the Mustangs Shane Buechele, who went to SMU from Texas. Buchele has lived up to the hype in the first 3 games, throwing for 871 yards (66.3% completion rate) and 5 scores. SMU also has a dynamic back in Xavier Jones, who is averaging 5.4 yards/carry and has 7 TDs. 

TCU is a team people expected to be improved after going just 7-6 last year and they are off a convincing 34-13 win at Purdue. The thing is, the Boilermakers didn't have starting quarterback Elijah Sindelar and backup Jack Plummer was not good in relief. 

Horned Frogs rushing numbers look impressive, but they are only averaging 0.6 yards/carry more than what their opponents were giving up. SMU is only allowing 3.3 yards/carry against the run. I'm not saying they win the game, but I think they will have a shot to do just that. Take SMU +9.5! 

50* AUBURN/TEXAS A&M SEC GAME OF THE MONTH (Texas A&M -3.5)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Aggies as a small home favorite. Kyle Field is one of the toughest places to play, especially in a big game like this. They don’t call it the “Home of the 12th Man” for nothing.

I also think even though Texas A&M comes in ranked No. 17 and Auburn is sitting there at No. 8, I think the Aggies are the better team. The schedule is the only reason more people weren’t higher on Texas A&M coming into the year.

I love the fact that the Aggies let one get away last year. I think that only adds more motivation playing with that kind of revenge.

The other big thing for me is I think Bo Nix isn’t as good as the hype. He made a great throw to win the game against Oregon, but he was just 13 of 31 (41.9%) for a 177 yards with 2 interceptions. He only threw for 207 yards on 19 of 37 passing (51.4%) against Tulane and had just 161 yards against Kent State.

I just think he has to play great for them to win and I don’t see it happening. Not only is Kyle Field a tough place to play, but this going to be his first start in a true road game.

On top of that, Texas A&M is not letting team run on them. Aggies are only giving up 83.7 yards/game and we know they are legit against the run given they held Clemson to just 121 yards on 33 attempts (3.7 yards/carry). If they can get Auburn into some 3rd and longs, I think Nix will make a mistake or two that should give us the separation needed for the cover. Give me Texas A&M -3.5!

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Michigan +3.5)

I think it's worth a shot here on the Wolverines. Michigan was favored in this matchup prior to the season and now are getting over a field goal. Everyone seems to want to write this team off because they had a close call against Army. 

I get that expectations are high and they should beat the Black Knights comfortably, but that's not a fun team to play against. What about last year when they took No. 5 Oklahoma to OT. I think the Sooners turned out okay. 

I still love the talent at Michigan and while I think Wisconsin came into this season a bit undervalued, we don't even know if they are the best team in that much weaker West division of the Big Ten. 

Wisconsin has an experienced QB in Jack Coan, who I also think is a bit limited in his ability. He's had it easy so far in the first two games, as the Badgers have been able to run at will with Jonathan Taylor. I don't think they are going to be able to just run the ball down the Wolverines throats. I think we are going to see Michigan's offense get a lot of really good field position and that offense is going to breakout at some point. Give me the Wolverines +3.5! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS BLOWOUT (Iowa State -18.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Cyclones bouncing back in a big way from that tough loss at home to in-state rival Iowa. With the Big 12 portion of their schedule starting up next week, ISU needs to get some momentum going in their favor. 

I think they will have no problem laying one on ULM. There are going to be some that take the Warhawks because they see they almost beat Florida State on the road (lost in OT). However, they will ignore the fact that the Seminoles had a 24-7 edge at the half and just didn't show up after halftime. Matt Campbell's team will not make that mistake. 

The offensive numbers are good for ULM, but they are about to get a taste of a real defense in Iowa State. I think we are going to see Brock Purdy and that Cyclones offense go off for 40+ and easily cover the number here. Give me Iowa State -18.5! 

40* NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT ATS SLAUGHTER (Boise St -7.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Boise State winning by at least 8 at home Friday night. A lot of people were on Colorado last week and thought the Buffaloes would win easy. I think the public came away impressed with Air Force and see value with them getting more than a touchdown.

I get it, but I think this is a much tougher spot for Air Force than people realize. For those that don’t know, the Falcons campus is located in Colorado Springs, CO. That was the first time since 1974 that they got a chance to play Colorado. That’s was not just another game for this team. When you get that hyped up for a matchup, it can be tough to bring that same energy the next week, especially on the road with a short week of prep.

I really like what I’ve seen out of this Boise State team and I think the true freshman Bachmeier will have a big day here against a suspect Falcons secondary. I also expect an extra focused Broncos team with a lot of people picking Air Force as their biggest threat in the Mountain division.

The other thing here is that it’s no secret the Falcons offense is built around their ground attack. Boise State’s defense is built around their front 7 and are giving up just 3.5 yards/carry versus the run. The defense was outstanding in that earlier Friday night clash with Marshall, holding the Thundering herd to just 172 yards.

If Boise State can get up early, Air Force is not the team to play from behind. Give me the Broncos -7.5!

50* UTAH/USC PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (USC +4)

I'll take my chances here with USC as a home dog. The betting public is going to be all over the Utes in this one and the public side is typically not the side you want to be on in these prime time weekday matchups.

Not to mention there will be plenty of people who simply take the Utes here because of the fact that Utah won 30-12 at BYU and USC lost on the road to the Cougars. Much like turnovers cost the Trojans in their loss to BYU, Utah had a +3 turnover margin in their win against the Cougars. It was definitely a much more evenly matched game than the final score would indicate.

That was also not an ideal spot for USC last week. Not only did the Trojans get revenge on Stanford in a big way, they went from being a team people weren’t really talking a ton about to being in the Top 25. They also had this big game against Utah on deck, which a lot of people think will decide the Pac-12 South.

Another thing that can’t be overlooked is the atmosphere that comes with a big game like this, especially when it’s a night game in the national spotlight. The home team has dominated in this series winning the last 6, so it’s hard to not take the points in this one.

Lastly, I really like what I’ve seen from Slovis. I know the interceptions may have cost them a win last week, but that was his first start on the road. I think he bounces in a big way on Friday night. Give me the Trojans +4!

40* NCAAF HOU/TULANE ATS NO-BRAINER (Tulane -4.5) 

My early lean here would be to lay the points with Tulane at home. I just don’t think the betting public is responsible for the 2-2.5 point line move in favor of the Green Wave. While Houston comes in at 1-2, this is a program people are familiar with. They also got a big name head coach in Dana Holgorsen, a heisman contender in quarterback D’Eriq King and their two losses are both against ranked Power 5 teams.

As for Tulane, this is not a program that gets a lot of national attention and for good reason. Green Wave have posted just 3 winning seasons the last 10 years (40-83 overall). The thing is, they have been on the climb under 4th year head coach Willie Fritz.

Coming into the season this looked like it would be Fritz’s best team yet and it’s definitely looking like that. They have dominated in both wins and clearly are not a pushover if they are only losing by 18 on the road to a Auburn team that is now No. 8 in the country.

Tulane is really strong up front and that’s evident by the fact that they are 28th in the country in rushing at 235.0 ypg and 49th against the run (115.5 ypg). The stat that really stands out to me is they held Auburn to just 20 rushing yards in the first half (wore down in the 2nd half with the offense not being able to get much going).

I know the numbers are a bit skewed for Houston’s defense having played two really good offenses in Oklahoma and Washington State, but they offered zero resistance against Jalen Hurts and the Sooners offense and the Cougars had 498 yards despite a very sluggish 1st half.

Even in their win over Prairie View they only outgained the Panthers  380 to 318. The big thing to keep in mind is the defense wasn’t really expected to be great. They only had 4 starters back from a unit that gave up 45 ppg in the second half last year. Give me the Green Wave -5!

50* NCAAF LATE NIGHT PLAY OF THE MONTH (Texas Tech -2) 

I'll take my chances here with Texas Tech as a small road favorite against the Wildcats. I think people are sleeping on the Red Raiders. I just think people wrote this team off and there's nothing to get excited about with blowout wins over Montana St and UTEP. 

I know Kingsbury is coaching in the NFL, but I loved the hire of Matt Wells from Utah State. Wells climbed his way through the ranks on the offensive side and last year the Aggies averaged 47.5 ppg and 497 ypg. He brought both his OC and DC with him from Utah State. 

He's got great talent at QB in Alan Bowman and the defense has been outstanding. They only gave up 8 first downs to Montana State and just 11 to UTEP. That's the sign of a team that's locked in. 

Arizona lost to Hawaii and then got in a shootout with Northern Arizona. They gave up 595 yards to the Rainbow Warriors and 442 to the Lumberjacks. Texas Tech is going to score a ton. I'm banking on that defense to create more than enough separation for an easy cover. Take Texas Tech! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS MONEY PLAY OF THE MONTH (Virginia -7) 

I'm going to take my chances here with Virginia. I'll be the first to admit that I thought Florida State was going to be a much better team in 2019. I loved the over on their win total. With that said, I don't have the same feelings about this team after watching them in their first two games. 

They lost the opener at home to Boise State 36-31, blowing a 31-13 lead. Given the expectations with that Boise State team, that was considered an okay loss. Not so much after the Broncos barely beat Marshall at home the following week. Then came the shocking 45-44 OT win at home against ULM. 

I got major concerns with Florida State's defense. The same Boise State offene that had 407 yards and 38 first downs against the Seminoles, managed just 14 points on their home field. ULM had 419 yards and 26 first downs. 

Virginia's defense is too good to allow their offense to score at will. I just don't see Florida State being able to do enough against the Cavaliers defense, especially on the road in what is going to a hostile environment in a night game. Give me Virginia -7! 

40* NCAAF SMALL CONF ATS BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK (La Tech -10) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs laying just 10-points at Bowling Green. I think this is a much bigger mismatch than the number would suggest, but we are getting a good number because of how poor La Tech has looked in their first two. 

The Bulldogs fell 45-14 at Texas in Week 1, failing to cover as a 19-point dog. They then only won 20-14 at home against Grambling as a 30-point favorite. I think that loss to Texas looked a lot worse at the time, as a lot of people were thinking the Longhorns might be down with just 8 starters back. After watching how well Texas played against LSU, I think La Tech more than held their own. 

The close call to Grambling gets a pass in my book. Grambling is only 5-miles from the Bulldogs Campus in Ruston. Those games always mean more to the little-brother in those fights. I think the close call could actually work in our favor and have them more focused than they need to be to roll the Falcons. 

Bowling Green is bad. They just lost 52-0 to Kansas State and managed just 5 first downs and 140 total yards. Wildcats called off the dogs up 38-0 at the half. I think it says a lot the Falcons weren't able to even add some garbage yards and first downs late in that game. 

If K-State can put 52 points with only 14 in the 2nd half, I have to believe La Tech can score 40 here. I don't think the Falcons get much more than 20. Give me the Bulldogs -10! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (USC -3.5)

I'll take my chances here with USC laying less than a touchdown on the road against BYU. I was high on the Trojans coming into this season and upset I didn't trust them more last week against Stanford. I just didn't know what to expect from Slovis in his first start. 

The guy didn't disappoint with 377 yards and 3 scores on 28 of 33 passing. I get it will be tough to top that, but if he sniffs 300 yards with 2 TDs and completes 60%, that's still pretty damn good. USC has some stud WRs that I think BYU will have a hard time hanging with. 

Let's also not overlook the fact that offense should be more explosive under new OC Graham Harrell. He's one of the bright offensive minds in the game. Did some really impressive things in his 3 years at North Texas. 

I hear a lot of people wanting to fade USC right away after that big win over Stanford. I'd much rather stay on the train and roll the dice they keep covering. BYU has to be exhausted after an emotional opener against in-state rival Utah and then playing in that OT thriller at home against Tennessee, which they won 29-26. 

I get the Vols are a storied SEC program and were expected to be better, but let's not get carried away with BYU beating a team that lost on their home field to a Sun Belt team in Georgia State. Give me the Trojans -3.5! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Indiana +17)

I'll take my chances here with the Hoosiers. Despite the fact that Indiana has lost 24 straight to the Buckeyes, they have consistently played them tougher than expected.

Last year they end up losing by 23 points, but it was a lot closer. Indiana had a 17-14 lead in the 2nd quarter and only trailed by 8 at the half and 9 at the end of 3 quarters.

It was a very similar type of game the last time they played in Bloomington (2017). Indiana had a 14-13 lead at the half and were up 21-20 with less than 5 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter. Buckeyes then go on a 29-0 run to win and cover. Note that's the only time Ohio State has covered in the last 8 meetings in the series.

This is the smallest the Buckeyes have been favored over Indiana since they were a 19-point favorite in 2012. Ohio State won by just 3-points in a 52-49 shootout.

I would like Indiana even more in this game if it was a little later kickoff. However, I'm still expecting a very rowdy home crowd backing the Hoosiers.

I also think there are some things here to be cautious with in Ohio State. This will be the Buckeyes first true road game of 2019. While Ohio State was 3-1 in true road games last year, but the lone loss was a 49-20 setback as a 12-point favorite at Purdue. They also only won by 1-point at Penn State and by just 1-point as a 14-point favorite at Maryland.

Another thing to note is that while FAU and Cincinnati are two well respected Group of 5 opponents, both might not be as good as we thought. The Owls got annihilated 48-14 by UCF at home in Week 2, while the Bearcats win over UCLA looked a lot less impressive after the Bruins fell 23-14 at home to San Diego State. Give me the Hoosiers +17!

40* NCAAF VEGAS ODDSMAKERS ATS SHOCKER (Kansas St +8.5)

I'll take my chances with Kansas State as a 8.5-point dog here. I would the line close to a pick’em on a neutral site, which means I would have the Bulldogs around a 3.5 to 4-point home favorite. Big time value at this number. 

It’s not a surprise that Mississippi State is a bit overvalued early on in 2019. You got a lot of SEC bias and while they haven’t looked great in their first two games, people will only focus on the outcomes.

Kansas State on the other hand is a team that I feel is flying under the radar. Last time Snyder left the program it went to shit and the Wildcats were just 5-7 last year. I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from the offense and the defense is a lot better than people think.

New head coach Chris Klieman won 4 FCS National Championships in his 5 years as the head coach of the Bison. He's the real deal. 

I also like the revenge angle for the Wildcats. This is a game they definitely had circled on the schedule and they got nothing to look ahead to with a bye week on deck. Mississippi State on the other hand has their SEC opener on deck with Kentucky coming to down in Week 4.

Lastly, we have a great system backing a play on Kansas State. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points are 43-15 (74%) ATS after scoring 42 points or more in each of their last 2 games. Give me the Wildcats +8.5!

50* NCAAF POWER 5 NON-CONF PLAY OF THE MONTH (NC State -6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with NC State laying less than a touchdown. I just don’t think the Wolfpack are going to have much trouble here. I think we got a NC State team that was flying under the radar coming into the season against a West Virginia team that is a lot worse off than people think.

I definitely think this line would be closer to double-digits if NC State had a better win on their resume. People just aren’t going to get excited about the Wolfpack beating the likes of East Carolina and Western Carolina. I get it, but at the same time they dominated both of those teams.

A lot of people will be talking about their new playmakers on offense, but I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from the defense. They held East Carolina to just 269 yards and that’s a Pirates offense people were high on behind sophomore QB Holton Ahlers. Western Carolina managed just 106 yards and 6 first downs.

I think the Wolfpack defense could pitch a shutout here against the Mountaineers. West Virginia is averaging a mere 232 yards/game and 3.7 yards/play. Just to compare, NC State is averaging 522 yards/game and 6.7 yards/play.

I’m sure some are giving WVU a pass for how they looked against Missouri last week, but let’s not forget that the Tigers lost 37-31 at Wyoming in Week 1.

The big problem I see with the Mountaineers offense is their inability to run the ball. West Virginia has attempted 56 rushes in their first two games and have a mere 64 yards to account for it. That to me spells serious offensive line problems. Mountaineers will routinely be playing behind the chains, which means a lot of 3 and outs, settling for field goals and turnovers. Give me NC State -6.5

50* UNC/WAKE FOREST SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Wake Forest -3) 

I'll take my chances with Wake Forest. Betting public is all over the Tar Heels in this one, which only makes the Demon Deacons more.

I was really big on Wake Forest coming into this season and I’ve liked what I’ve seen, especially from the offense. The defense still needs some work, but they should definitely get a boost from what figures to a rowdy home crowd.

Another thing here is this will be the first true road game for UNC's true freshman Sam Howell and he’s going to have to handle the noise without senior starting center Nick Polino. I think that along with the spotlight of playing a weekday game on ESPN and we see a little bit of the true freshmen mistakes come out.

That wasn’t the only big injury suffered for UNC. The Tar Heels lost starting corner Patrice Rene. That really makes it tough on the UNC secondary against Wake’s playmakers on the outside

I also think you can’t overlook the edge Wake Forest has not only with an extra day of rest, but also the fact that they had a much easier game last week. Give me the Demon Deacons -3.

50* NCAAF PRIME TIME ACC GAME OF THE YEAR (Miami -5) 

I'll take my chances here with Miami winning by at least a TD. I think we are getting exceptional value here with the Hurricanes. Miami had No. 8 Florida on the ropes in Week 0. This team wasn't ranked coming into the year and won't be after that loss, but I strongly believe they are a Top 25 team. 

I like what I saw from Jarren Williams at QB and the defense is going to be really good again. They forced the Gators into 4 turnovers. I like this team to bounce back in a big way against a North Carolina team that I think is getting too much respect after their upset of South Carolina. I was on the Tar Heels in that win, so I wasn't surprised by them winning that game. They really shouldn't have. They were down 11 going into the 4th quarter. I think the Canes roll. Give me Miami -5! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Tulane +17.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Mean Green surprising a lot of people and keeping it closer than expected. I say surprise because I see close to 75% action on the Tigers in this one. Auburn had a great come from behind win in Week 1 over Oregon, but are now primed for a letdown after playing in arguably the biggest game of the week. 

Everyone is singing the praises of Auburn freshman quarterback Bo Nix for his game-winning TD throw. It was a great throw. However, I'm more focused on the overall product and I think it was so-so. Nix only completed 42% (13-31) of his passes, had just 177 yards and threw 2 picks. 

Tulane is a team to watch out for. Willie Fritz has done a tremendous job building up this program. They are now in year 4 and have all the key pieces to be a successful team. I couldn't have been more impressed with how they manhandled a Butch Davis coached FIU team in Week 1. They made the Panthers look like a JV team. This is their chance to shine and I think they catch the Tigers sleeping. Give me Tulane +17.5! 

50* NCAAF CONF-USA GAME OF THE MONTH (FIU -7.5)

I'll take my chances here with FIU winning by at least 8 at home against Western Kentucky. I was on the Panthers in their lopsided loss at Tulane and I clearly underestimated Willie Fritz's team. That loss isn't going to keep me from backing this team in this spot and I actually think we are getting value because of how bad they looked. 

FIU should be a much improved team this year. They got 16 returning starters from a 9-win team. They got a good experienced senior QB in James Morgan and a legit head coach in Butch Davis. This team beat WKU 38-17 on the road last year and the Hilltoppers don't look all that improved from their 3-win campaign, as they just lost at home to Central Arkansas. Give me FIU -7.5! 

40* NCAAF ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (South Florida +6.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Bulls covering on the 6.5 at Georgia Tech. I'm actually shocked the Yellow Jackets are favored by this much. I get the USF loss to Wisconsin looks bad given the Bulls didn't score, but there's no doubt USF is better than that on the offensive side of the ball. They were just beat up in the trenches by a bigger Badgers team. 

Georgia Tech got rolled 52-14 at Clemson in Week 1 and that was with Trevor Lawrence not playing great. I also think the Tigers were holding back a lot in that game with Texas A&M on deck. That says a lot that it was that lopsided. 

More than anything here, there's every reason to think the Yellow Jackets are going to suck this year. They got bunch of players they recruited to play the option trying to learn and operate a pro-style offense. I not only think the Bulls cover, but win outright. Keep in mind USF beat Georgia Tech last year. Give me the Bulls +6.5! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS SHOCKER (Maryland -1.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Terps as a small home favorite against nationally ranked Syracuse. Any time you see a ranked team getting points against an unranked opponent, it's a pretty good indication the books are on to something. Since 2015 there have been 23 times in the regular-season that a team ranked 20th or lower was a dog against an unranked opponent. Those teams are a miserable 4-19 SU. That includes a mere 1-5 mark in the 6 times this came up last year.

Regardless of ranked vs unranked, I would like Maryland laying less than a field goal in this one. Terps are an afterthought playing in the same division as Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State. This team is more talented than their record suggest. Big thing that's been holding them back is consistent QB play. I think they will finally get that with Va Tech transfer Justin Jackson. 

I'm also not a big Syracuse believer. I think this team isn't as good as people think, especially this year without Eric Dungey at quarterback. Defense isn't great and I think we could see the Terps roll. Give me Maryland -1.5!  

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Missouri -13.5)

I'll take my chances here with Missouri bouncing back from that embarrassing Week 1 loss at Wyoming with a big win over West Virginia. Wyoming is a very well-coached team under Craig Bohl and I think Missouri went in thinking it was going to be an easy win. 

The good news is the offense looked good in the first game behind Clemson transfer quarterback Kelly Bryant. He went 31 of 48 for 423 yards and 2 scores. This team is going to put up points. I think they could light it up on the Mountaineers. 

West Virginia went into the 4th quarter tied 10-10 at home against FCS foe James Madison. People assume KU is the worst in the Big 12, but with Dana Holgorsen leaving and Les Miles joining the Jayhawks, that role may be reversed. The offense could only muster 294 yards and had a mere 34 rushing yards on 24 attempts (1.4 yards/carry). I think the Tigers have this covered by half and coast to a 20-point win. Give me Missouri -13.5! 

50* NOTRE DAME/LOUISVILLE LABOR DAY ATS MASSACRE (Notre Dame -18)

I'll take my chances here with the Fighting Irish winning by at least 20. I'm not sure why, but this Irish team is not getting near the love you would expect for a Notre Dame team that returns a lot from a team that just ran the table ni the regular-season. 

They did get rolled by Clemson in the semi's, which I think had some wondering if they deserved a playoff bid. If you feel that way about the Irish, Alabama lost just as bad to the Tigers and they definitely deserved to be there. 

Ian Book is a legit quarterback and while Louisville's defense will be improved, they gave up 44.1 ppg and 484 ypg last year. I just don't know that the talent is there for a quick turnaround. A lot of people like new head coach Scott Satterfield from App St. He's good, but keep in mind he went 4-8 in his first year with the Mountaineers (47-16 after). 

I think the Cardinals will find themselves behind early and I just don't trust Jawon Pass to keep them in it. He only completed 54% of his attempts last year with a 8-12 TD-INT ratio, plus he's being forced to learn a whole new offenes. Give me Notre Dame -18! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Oklahoma -22.5)

Oklahoma has started out strong under Riley. In 2017 they put up 56 and covered as 43-point favorites in the opener over UTEP and Week 2 beat Ohio State 31-16 as a 7-point dog.

Last year a lot of people thought FAU had a shot of going into Norman and winning. People couldn’t help themselves but back the Owls at +20. Oklahoma led 56-0 in the 3rd quarter before calling off the dogs and wrapping up a 63-14 win.

I think people are getting a little too caught up in comparing Hurts to both Mayfield and Murray. Will Hurts put up the passing numbers of those two? Probably not. The thing is, he’ll make up for it with his legs. I think because he was so bad in that 1st half against Georgia in the 2017 title game, people just don’t give him the respect he deserves. Guy got beat out by a future top NFL draft pick.

If anyone can make him great, it’s Riley and since he took over in 2015, Oklahoma has not averaged fewer than 43.5 ppg and 530 ypg (both of those in his first season with program).

I just rambled on about the offense, which is all everyone is talking about, but the real reason to be excited about the Sooners is the addition of defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. If this team had any kind of defense the last two year, they probably win it all.

Grinch was the DC at Ohio State last year and at Washington State the 3 years prior. I think the public perception is that the Buckeyes underperformed defensively last year, but they only 5 starters back, there was outside drama and I just don’t know that the kids were 100% invested.

I look more at what Grinch was able to do at Washington State. He took over a defense that had 6 starters back from a unit that allowed 38.6 ppg and got them down to 27.7. They continued to improve each year and when he left they were giving up 25.8 ppg and 323 ypg. Oklahoma has 8 starters back and will be greatly improved on that side. I could definitely see them giving King struggles.

Houston’s defense only brings back 4 starters and lose a ton of talent. They are also learning a new scheme on that side of the ball. Hurts and the Sooners will score at will. Give me Oklahoma -22.5!

50* NCAAF NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (USC -13.5) 

I just think the books are giving Fresno State way too much respect here. At the same, this is the least hyped Trojans team that I can remember (all the Pac-12 hype is centered around Washington, Oregon and Utah).

Sometimes you gotta hit a bit of a rough patch to motivate you to greatness. I’m hoping some of that takes place at USC this year. Not making a bowl with the talent they had, had to be extremely humbling. I think it’s going to have the Trojans playing with a chip on their shoulder in 2019.

Even with a revenge game on deck against Stanford, I expect USC to be 100% locked in on not just beating Fresno State, but sending a message to everyone that they are going to be a player in the Pac-12 this year.

I really think we are going to see J.T. Daniels develop into a star this year. He definitely flashed that “it” factor you love to see in his first year, but he also looked a bit lost. I think he’s going to be a different dude and the hire of Harrell only furthers my confidence in him in 2019.

Harrell did a tremendous job developing Mason Fine in his 3 years as the OC at North Texas. Fine went from completing 59% with a 6-5 TD-INT ratio as a true freshmen (also Harrell’s first year), to completing 63% with 31-15 ratio as a sophomore and 65% with a 27-5 TD-INT ratio as a junior. Fine is already the Mean Green all-time leading passer. In his first year as OC at North Texas, Mean Green improved by 9.6 ppg and in year two he improved by another 10.7 ppg (from 15.2 ppg to 35.5 ppg).

I just don’t see Fresno State being able to keep pace offensively in this one. I don’t have the same excitement over the Bulldogs new OC in Ryan Grubb, who got promoted after being the o-line coach the last two years. You also have a first year starter in senior Jorge Reyna who has only played in limited garbage time and will be working behind an offensive line that lost 4 starters. Not to mention the loss of star wide out KeeSean Johnson, who had 95 catches for 1,340 yards and 8 scores.  Give me USC -13.5!

40* NCAAF AFTERNOON ATS NO-BRAINER (Va Tech -4) 

I just feel like that the Hokies are the more complete team and are flying a bit under the radar to start out 2019. You can see how much respect the books have for this team, given they were a 2-point home dog to the Eagles at the end of last year and are now laying points on the roads.

I get the excitement around the BC offense with all their playmakers back, but you never really know how it’s going to go when you change up the offense. Bajakian was a quarterback coach the last 4 years in the NFL (Bucs). He did serve as the OC at Tennessee in 2013 and 2014. However, the offense regressed by 12.4 ppg (36.2 ppg to 23.8 ppg) in his first year and got better by 6.3 ppg when he left (28.9 ppg to 35.2 ppg).

Needless to say, I’m not convinced the Eagles offense is going to be humming along to start the year. I also think they are matched up here against a talented and hungry Hokies defense that will be out to make a statement.

I also feel like Boston College’s defense is headed in the wrong direction. Eagles only return 3 starters from a unit that gave up over 400 ypg for the first time in 5 years. It’s been a decline every year in yards allowed since the great Don Brown left to be the DC at Michigan in 2015.

That first road game in conference play can be a challenge for a lot of teams, but Virginia Tech has thrived in this spot. Hokies are 13-2 in their last 15 ACC road openers. That includes a 24-3 win at Florida State to open last year. Va Tech easily covered as a 7-point dog. I think they win here by 10+ rather easily. Give me the Hokies -4!

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS BLOWOUT (UNC +11.5) 

I just think the perception for most people when they look at North Carolina is that 2019 will be a rebuild and Brown will have them back to being a competitive force in 2020. I also think the public will see an SEC team against a middle of the pack ACC team and see an side with the SEC.

I look at these two teams and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if North Carolina won this game. No disrespect to South Carolina, but I just think the Tar heels are in a much better spot than people realize.

You never know what you are going to get out of a true freshman quarterback until you see them play, but there’s reason to be optimistic that Sam Howell (first ever true freshmen to start opener at UNC) will perform at a high level. The most obvious answer is his talent. Had Jimbo Fisher not left FSU, he probably would be enrolled in Tallahassee. The kid set the North Carolina high school record for passing yards.

Second, he’s not going to have to do it all. They got a decent 0-line with a future NFL left tackle in Charlie Heck. One that will be blocking for a trio of players at running back in Michael Carter, Antonio Williams and Javonte Brown.

Third, he’s got a bright offensive minded coordinator in Phil Longo, who made a name for himself with his up-tempo attack at Sam Houston State and spent the last two years guiding a potent Ole Miss attack. Rebels averaged 33.9 ppg and 511 ypg with him calling the shots in 2018.

Lastly, the Gamecocks are at a bit of a disadvantage in terms of they don’t know really what to prepare for. South Carolina on the other hand has returning coordinators, so they will be running a lot of the same stuff on both sides.

I also want to point out that I like South Carolina quarterback Bentley. I just think that offense is going to really miss the playmaking ability of Deebo Samuel . Keep in mind this team ranked T-107th in the entire FBS with a mere 15 rushing touchdowns last year. I’d much rather back the Gamecocks as an underdog. Give me the Tar Heels +11.5!

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS SHOCKER (Ole Miss +5) 

I understand why Memphis is getting so much love in this matchup, but I also think they got no business laying almost a touchdown against a SEC team, especially a team that has the talent that Ole Miss has.

I get it was on the road, but I can’t get past the whooping Memphis took in a road game at Missouri last year. They lost by a final of 65-33 as a 9-point dog. Note that given that line, that means the Tigers would have been around a 3-point dog at home to Missouri last year.

I think a big reason that Memphis is favored like they are is the talent they got at quarterback in Brady White. He put up fantastic numbers last year. However, the Tigers offense does lose an elite playmaker in running back Darrell Henderson, who rushed for 1,909 yards and 22 touchdowns. They also lose three multi-year starters on the offensive line.

I also think people are sleeping on Ole Miss red-shirt freshman quarterback Matt Corral. He actually got in 4 games as true freshman, none more impressive than his mop up duty against ULM, when he went 10 for 10, throwing for 143 yards and 2 scores.

I get he loses a ton of talent at wide receiver, but they have been recruiting extremely well at the position for years now. They might be a bit raw, but there are some real playmakers in the group. Ole Miss also has a ton of talent back at running back.

I don’t see Memphis being able to slow this offense down. On the flip side of things, I’m excited to see what MacIntyre can do with all that returning talent on defense.

Luke has already made it public that the Rebels are playing with a chip on their shoulder and you can bet he’s brought up the fact his team is an underdog against a non-power 5 opponent multiple times in fall practice. I love teams who I think have more talent that have something to prove. Give me the Rebels +5!

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (FSU -6.5) 

I think people are sleeping big time on Florida State. I get that Taggart isn’t on the same level as Fisher. There are still a ton of 4 and 5 star players on this roster. I also think there’s a lot of pride in Tallahassee. The players had to be embarrassed to not get to a bowl game. I have to believe it resulted in quite the chip on their shoulder. They have something to prove and will be out to send a message here.

The offense really is what kept this team from getting to a bowl. The defense actually played pretty good early on, but eventually wore down in the second half. Part of that was Deondre Francois and his lack of accuracy and poor judgement.

He’s gone and Blackmon is a kid that started 12 games as a true freshman in 2017. While last year was technically a red-shirt for Blackmon, he played in 4 and in his lone start threw for 421 yards against a NC State defense that only gave up 24.9 ppg in 2018.

On top of that, the offense is getting a massive boost here with new offensive coordinator Kendal Briles. Let me explain my excitement with Briles. He was the OC at Baylor in 2015 (48.1 ppg, 616 ypg) and 2016 (34.6 ppg, 523 ypg). In 2017 he was the OC at FAU and they put up 40.6 ppg and 498 ypg. The previous year they averaged 26.4 ppg and 398 ypg. Last year he was the OC at Houston. The Cougars averaged 43.9 ypg and 513 ypg after only averaging 28.3 ppg and 428 ypg the previous season.

Nothing is guaranteed in this world, but it would be foolish to not think this offense will be drastically improved given the talent Briles has to work with. The scary thing is the defense could be just as good as the offense. Every year there’s a team that isn’t ranked that ends up in the Top 10. Florida State would be my pick in 2019.

All of this and I haven’t even got to the fact that Boise State will be starting a true freshman. He could be great. You never know. However, chances are he will struggle in his first collegiate game against this kind of talent. Keep in mind the Broncos also lost leading rusher Alex Mattison (1,415 yards, 17 TDs) as well as their top two wide outs in Sean Modster and A.J. Richardson (122 catches, 1,803 yards, 16 TDs). Give me the Seminoles -6.5!

40* NCAAF WISCONSIN/USF MONEY MAKER (Wisconsin -12) 

I just think people are sleeping on this Wisconsin team in 2019.  Everyone is on the Nebraska bandwagon and several also have Iowa pegged ahead of them in the West (beat Iowa 28-17 on the road and Nebraska 41-24 at home before injuries derailed their season last year).

I think the biggest thing that scares people and what’s keeping the number lower than it should be is the uncertainty at quarterback for the Badgers. No one has been named the starter, but from what I’m reading, junior Jack Coan is the guy. Coan played in 6 and started 4 last year. Word is he’s a lot stronger and has more zip on the ball.

I’m not going to say the quarterback position isn’t important. It is. I just think it doesn’t matter as much with a predominant running team like Wisconsin. They have won a lot of games with pretty average QB play.

Speaking of the run game, the Badgers welcome back one of the best in the country in junior Jonathan Taylor. The lack of hype this kid is getting going into 2019 is crazy. After rushing for 1,977 yards as a true freshmen, he put up 2,194 yards as a sophomore. That’s 4,171 yards in his first two seasons. Melvin Gordon is 3rd all-time at Wisconsin with 4,915 yards and he played 4 years.

South Florida gave up 248 ypg and 5.1 yards/carry last year. They had 4 different games where they allowed 320+ yards. They only got 6 starters back on defense and have to replace two of their top 3 tacklers.

Wisconsin’s defense was as bad as it has been in a long time in 2018, which is crazy cause they gave up a mere 22.6 ppg and 344 ypg. Injuries were a big part of that. I expect them to return to form and while USF has some talent on offense, they are going to have a hard time moving the ball in this game.

Lastly, I don’t really trust Charlie Strong. He got a lot of praise for going 10-2 in his first year on the job, but those were Willie Taggert’s kids. He inherited 16 starters from a team that won 11-games the previous season. Give me Wisconsin -12!

40* NCAAF FIU/TULANE ATS KNOCKOUT (FIU +2) 

I'll take my chances here with FIU as a small road dog against Tulane. I expect a lot of people to be on the Green Wave as a small home favorite. Tulane is viewed as a team on the rise and many feel like this will be their best team under head coach Willie Fritz. 

I'm not arguing that, but I think Tulane isn't quite where people think. Keep in mind they had to convert a 2-point conversion in the final game of the season against Navy to just make a bowl and the Midshipmen were 1-9 to close out 2018. Factor in a couple more wins over 3-9 teams in Tulsa and East Carolina and that 7-6 record don't look so great. 

The bigger thing here is I love Butch Davis and think he's taking FIU to the next level. Last year the Panthers had just 11 starters back and were suppose to regressing from their 8-5 record in 2017. They instead went 9-4 with two of their losses to Indiana and @ Miami (covered both). 

Last year's team put up 34.6 ppg and 422 ypg. They got 8 starters back on offense, including senior QB in James Morgan. They also got 8 back on defense. I feel FIU has the better coach, better QB and is just as talented across the board. Give me the Panthers +2! 

50* UCLA/CINC NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER TOP PLAY (UCLA +3) 

The Bruins OVER 5.5 is one of my favorite win total bets this year and I think they win this game outright. I hate passing up points when I’m getting at least a field goal, but I’ll probably play the money line as well.

No disrespect to Cincinnati, who I feel is one of the better ‘Group of 5’ teams out there, I think UCLA is going to be light years ahead of where they were a season ago. The Bruins didn’t have to just learn a completely new offense last year, they had to learn how to play fast. The up-tempo style of play worked wonders for Chip Kelly at Oregon and there’s more than enough talent here.

I also love the revenge angle here and with that just how these two teams are coming into this season. UCLA is coming into this season with a chip on their shoulder. Cincinnati on the other hand has to be feeling themselves and I don’t know if they are going to give the Bruins the respect they should.

This is what we call a measuring stick game. What better way to prove that you are a better team than beat the team that knocked you off in the opener last year.

Let’s also not forget that was a 17-17 game going into the 4th quarter. The total yards were almost identical at the end of the game (304 to 306). I think UCLA is going to be better in ever aspect of the game than they were in last year’s contest and for Cincinnati they don’t have near the talent on the defensive side of the ball as they did a year ago. Give me the Bearcats +3!

50* ALABAMA/CLEMSON NATIONAL CHAMP ATS WINNER (Clemson +6) 

This is a pretty easy one for me, as I actually like the Tigers to win this game outright. I think Clemson has quietly been sitting there all season listening to everyone talk about how this Alabama team is the best team yet under Nick Saban and no one is getting in the way of them winning the title. I’m not about to say the Crimson Tide aren’t an elite team, I just think the Tigers are every bit as good and this line should be closer to a pick’em than a touchdown.

Both of these teams have elite young quarterbacks, who will be playing in the NFL before we know it, so for me it’s all about which defense I trust more to get off the field. I just think the edge has to Clemson on that side of the ball. Even with Dexter Lawrence likely unavailable, the Tigers still have three elite talents on their defensive line. While the guys up front get all the attention, and rightfully so, Clemson has some dudes in the secondary and I think they have the better defensive backs.

For me it just seems like Alabama gets these huge guys that are great at stopping the run, but aren’t the fastest in open space and struggle to play coverage. A big reason why I think a lot of linebackers who were stars at Alabama, have not had the greatest careers in the NFL. The biggest thing for me is how the Crimson Tide defense struggled in their last two games, giving up 301 passing yards to Georgia and 308 to Oklahoma. They also gave up 150+ rushing yards in both of those games.

Another thing for me is that while Tagovailoa put up great numbers against Oklahoma, I still don’t think he’s 100% and just doesn’t offer that scrambling presence that he did earlier in the season. He only rushed for 9 yards on 5 attempts against the Sooners. Not having that mobility against this Clemson defensive front could very well make all the difference in this game. Give me Clemson +6!

40* NCAAF SUGAR BOWL ATS MASSACRE (Texas +13.5) 

I get the Sugar Bowl is a big deal and it’s on New Year’s Day, but there’s no bowl game that’s going to be good enough for Georgia than the playoffs. The Bulldogs were 20 minutes away from upsetting the Crimson Tide and being in the playoffs. I just don’t know how this team can recover from blowing another 2nd half lead to the Crimson Tide, where the backup at the time came in and saved the day for Alabama. Beating Texas does absolutely nothing for this team.

On the flip side of this, I think this game is massive for Texas and their pursuit of getting back to being one of the elite programs in the country. Outside of their win over Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, this would hands down be the best win for the Longhorns under Herman.

You also can’t ignore the track record that Herman has had not only in bowl games with his 2-0 record (both blowout wins as a dog), but how his team has performed as an underdog in general. Herman’s team has been a dog 15 times and he’s posted a 12-3 record against the spread and won 10 of the games outright.

You also have to factor in that Georgia will be without corner Deandre Baker, who is skipping the game to prepare for the draft. Baker is an absolute stud and a lock to be a 1st round pick. I think that’s a massive blow in this matchup. Texas’ offense is built on their passing game and it will be a lot easier throwing the ball without the Jim Thorpe winner on the field. Give me the Longhorns +13.5!

50* NEW YEAR'S DAY BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR (Ohio State -6.5)

I just think this being the final game that Urban Meyer will coach at Ohio State makes this more than just another bowl game for the Buckeyes. 

In terms of talent, I think Ohio State is right there with the likes of Alabama and Clemson. It just seems like this team knows how good they are and has a problem with overlooking teams they should beat. I think it’s why we saw so many close games against mediocre teams and why we have also seen Ohio State suffer some ugly losses the last two years. In 2017 they got annihilated 55-24 at Iowa and this year they had a similar 49-20 loss at Purdue.

The thing is, the big games this team has almost always delivered under Meyer. Nothing speaks more true to that than the fact that Ohio State was a perfect 7-0 against rival Michigan under Meyer and their 4-1 bowl record over their last 5 bowl games.

Keep in mind they were in a very similar spot last year where they won the Big Ten title, but didn’t make the playoff and went out and beat USC 24-7 as a 8-point favorite in the Cotton Bowl.

The other big thing is that I just can’t get over how bad the Pac-12 has been in bowl games over recent years. You also have the struggles that Petersen has had in bowl games with this Washington team and the fact that they simply weren’t anywhere close to as good as what we were expecting. I think the biggest thing is Huskies senior quarterback Jake Browning hasn’t matured liked we all thought he would. He’s one of the most overrated quarterbacks in the country. I just don’t see him going toe-to-toe with Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins. Give me the Buckeyes -6.5!

50* TAXSLAYER GATOR BOWL SHARP TOP PLAY (Texas A&M -7) 

I think this might be one of the bigger mismatches this bowl season. I think Texas A&M is hands down the best 8-win team in the country and NC State might be one of the biggest frauds in the nation. I just don’t think it’s going to be close.

Not only are the Wolfpack a bit overrated coming into this game, but they got two of their best players sitting this out in wide out Kelvin Harmon and linebacker Germaine Pratt. Harmon had 81 receptions for a team-high 1,186 yards and 7 scores, while Pratt led the team in tackles. On top of that, NC State is also having to deal with a new look to their offense, as offensive coordinator Eli Drinkwitz has left to be the new head coach at Appalachian State.

The biggest thing here is I don’t see Ryan Finley and that NC State offense being able to keep pace here. Texas A&M has a really good defense and one that held teams almost 60 yards under their average. They are almost impossible to run against and I just think that defensive front will be living in the Wolfpack backfield.

As for the Aggies offense, they should be able to put up some big numbers here. While NC State’s defense only gave up 22.7 ppg, they really only played two legit offenses all year in Clemson and Syracuse. The Tigers had 41 points and nearly 500 yards, while the Orange put up 51 and 561 yards. Fisher worked wonders with Kellen Mond this year and I think he’s going to light it up in the bowl game. Give me the Aggies -7!

40* SUN BOWL NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Stanford -3.5)

Even with Bryce Love sitting this one out, I’m confident the Cardinal will be the more prepared team when these two take the field on Monday. Not to mention, Stanford is the more talented team and have key edges at quarterback and on the line of scrimmage.

Not to take anything away from what Pitt accomplished, but I do think they are getting some unwarranted love for winning a horrible ACC Coastal. Keep in mind we have already seen two of the better teams in the Coastal get absolutely annihilated in their bowl. Georgia Tech lost 34-10 to a very mediocre Minnesota team and Miami was embarrassed 35-3 by Wisconsin.

I get that the Panthers played Notre Dame tough on the road, but they also had just 242 yards in that game and were outgained by 100 yards and lost despite a +2 turnover margin. I get the Cardinal stunk it up at Notre Dame, but this team has at least shown they can compete with the top tier teams and I like how the finished the season strong.

Keep in mind that Stanford lost by 3-points to Washington State and by 4 points at Washington. Had they won those two, they would have won the Pac-12 North and likely been headed to the Rose Bowl.

Another key here is how the two teams matchup. Pitt is a very run dominated team. They averaged almost twice as many runs (41) as they did passes (22). Even though this wasn’t a great Stanford defense, they only gave up 3.9 yards/carry and just 141 ypg. Most of their struggles came against the pass. 

On the flip side of this, the Cardinal have a great solid quarterback in Costello, but really struggled to get the running game going. Pitt gave up almost 5 yards/carry. In their last two they gave up a combined 594 rushing yards to Miami and Clemson. Stanford didn’t lose a game when the rushed for at least 125. Give me the Cardinal -3.5!

40* CFB SEMIFINAL (NOTRE DAME/CLEMSON) ATS NO-BRAINER (Clemson -11.5) 

As much as the betting public loves to back the Tigers, most will convince themselves that this is too many points to pass up with Notre Dame. I could be completely wrong here, but I don’t think the Irish are anywhere close to being on the same level as Clemson, who I feel is right there with Alabama in terms of being in another class compared to the rest of college football.

Sure, the Fighting Irish played 10 teams from a Power 5 conference this year and coming into the season it looked like a pretty difficult schedule. Unfortunately the likes of Stanford, Virginia Tech, Florida State and USC were not as good as we thought. The win over Michigan looks great, but it’s not nearly as impressive as it was before we watched the Wolverines get annihilated by Ohio State in their regular-season finale.

Haven’t we seen this story before. Everyone was saying that 2012 was different and Notre Dame was going to knock off Alabama. It only took a couple series before we knew the Irish were frauds. Same thing last year when they were No. 3 and favorite at Miami. The Irish didn’t just lose, they got annihilated 41-8.

I’m not saying they are a bad team. There’s a lot of talent on this Notre Dame team. I just don’t think they have enough to hang with the juggernaut that is Clemson. The Tigers just aren’t an elite offensive team, they got some absolute studs on the defensive side of the ball, especially up front on the defensive line. There will be without star defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence.

Lawrence is an amazing player and it certainly will be easier on Notre Dame, but they got 3 other NFL draft picks that are going to be on the field and chances are they probably got a young backup or two that will be playing on Sunday’s down the road. I just don’t think the Irish offensive line is going to know what hit them. I just don’t think they will be able to score enough to keep this thing close. Give me the Tigers -11.5!

50* FLORIDA/MICHIGAN CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL TOP PLAY  (Florida +6.5) 

I’m not buying for a second that Michigan is excited at all about playing in this game. I’m pretty confident that for most of the Wolverines players and fans, the season ended with that ugly loss at Ohio State in the finale. A defeat that ultimately kept Michigan out of the college football playoffs. No disrespect to the Peach Bowl, which is a bowl that a lot of teams would love to be in, but it’s a letdown compared to what the Wolverines were hoping for.

I think just how little this game means to Michigan is pretty evident by the fact that they got 4 starters sitting this out to prepare for the NFL draft, including two of their best defensive payers in Rashan Gary and Devin Bush, as well as leading rusher Karan Higdon. Both Gary and Bush are considered Top prospects for the 2019 draft and Higdon is the 5th best running back on the board.

On the flip side of this, I think there’s a ton of incentive here for Florida to play well, as they are still in the early stages of their transition to new head coach Dan Mullen. I think Mullen will convince his team that this game is a measuring stick for the program with Michigan being ranked No. 7. There’s also no doubt that Mullen will be playing the underdog card with his team in this one. I also don’t think Harbaugh is the most liked guy in the SEC and there’s some seniors on this team that haven’t forgot about the whooping Harbaugh’s Wolverines handed them back in the 2015 Citrus Bowl.

You also can’t ignore the track record of these two coaches in bowl games. Mullens is 5-2 overall and won 3 straight to close out his tenure with Mississippi State, including a upset win over Louisville as a 6-point dog in last year’s TaxSlayer Bowl. You then have Harbaugh, who is 1-2 in bowl games with Michigan, having lost the last two outright as a favorite of at least a touchdown. Give me the Gators +6.5!

50* CAMPING WORLD BOWL SHARP TOP PLAY (Syracuse -3) 

I'll take my chances here with the Orange laying a mere field goal against the Mountaineers. I actually liked Syracuse to win this game outright as a 7-point dog with Will Grier still in the lineup. I think it's an absolute gift to get Syracuse at this price without Grier. Sure the backup could be great, but the odds say there will be a major dropoff in productivity at the most important position on the field. I just don't see how the Mountaineers are going to score enough to make a game of it. Syracuse has a legit QB and are scoring 40.7 ppg. They will be up against a West Virginia defense that is allowing 32.8 ppg on the road. Give me Syracuse -3! 

40* QUICK LANE BOWL ATS NO-BRAINER (Georgia Tech -6) 

I have Georgia Tech rated as the much better team and I just don’t think it’s asking a lot given the circumstances to win by at least a touchdown. 

I know Minnesota is going to be excited about playing in their first bowl game under P.J. Fleck, but the motivational edge has to go to the Yellow Jackets in this one. When Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson announced his retirement, this instantly became a lot more than just another bowl game. Johnson has been outstanding in his 11 years with Georgia Tech and these players are going to give everything they have to make sure he goes out in style.

On top of the motivational edge, I really like this matchup for the Yellow Jackets. No surprise behind the triple-option that Georgia Tech was a good rushing team. However, this was quite a season for them on the ground. The Yellow Jackets led the country in rushing at 334.9 ypg. The next best was Army back at 296.3 and we just saw the Black Knights put up over 500 yards in their bowl game against Houston.

It’s the most yards Georgia Tech has averaged in a season since they put up 342 ypg back in 2014. The year they won 11 games and lost a heartbreaker 37-35 to FSU in the ACC title game.

Minnesota wasn’t exactly great at stopping the run. In fact, they rank 75th in the country, giving up 170.7 rushing yards/game. The more staggering number for me is that they allowed 278 yards/game and 7.8 yards/carry away from home. Add in that they haven’t really faced any triple-option teams in recent years and you have to assume Georgia Tech is going to run wild.

I know the Yellow Jackets defense isn’t top notch, but they will be facing a pretty average Minnesota offense. One that ranked outside the Top 70 in both rushing and passing. Not to mention, averaged a mere 24 ppg on the road. Give me Georgia Tech -6! 

50* HAWAII BOWL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (LA TECH +1) 

I'll gladly back the Bulldogs in the Hawaii Bowl. As nice as it is for Hawaii to being playing a home game for their bowl, I don’t think the home crowd will be enough to overcome the gap in talent here.

At the time the season started it looked like Hawaii had pulled off a couple of nice wins over Colorado State and Navy, but turns out both of those programs were way down. The Rams finished 3-9 and Navy finished 3-10. In fact, the only win the Rainbow Warriors had was a 31-30 overtime win against San Diego State in the regular-season finale. That win looks less impressive given how much the Aztecs struggled in the 2nd half of the season and we just watched them get shutout by Ohio in their bowl game.

You can’t just discredit a team for playing an easy schedule, but the problem is Hawaii really struggled against the good teams they played. They lost by 26 to BYU, 18 to Nevada, 30 to Fresno State and 39 to Utah State. Both losses against Nevada and Utah State coming on their home field.

We also saw a Hawaii offense that was the talk of college football early on, manage to eclipse 30 points just once in regulation over their final 7 games. I think the Warriors will struggle to get that offense going against a solid Louisiana Tech defense. The Bulldogs finished 32nd in the country, giving up just 373 yards/game. They were also 30th against the pass, allowing just 193.6 passing yards/game.

On the flip side of this, Hawaii’s lucky their offense was so good early, because they defense was a disaster. Hawaii was 101st in the country, giving up 438.7 ypg. They were manhandled up front, as they finished 106th against the run, allowing 207.5 yards/game.

Add in the fact that the Bulldogs are a perfect 4-0 in bowl games under head coach Skip Holtz and I think the wrong team is favored in this one. Give me Louisiana Tech +1.

40* ARMED FORCES BOWL ATS KNOCKOUT (Army -5) 

I'll take my chances with the Black Knights. I just think there’s something special about this year’s Army team and I just don’t see them losing this game. With a win this Black Knight’s team has the right to be considered one of, if not, the best teams in school history. Not to mention I think they feel obligated to play well in a bowl that’s basically name after them.

I’m sure there will be some that think Army is at a disadvantage here, because they haven’t had the same amount of time off. This game will be just two week after the Black Knights faced off against Navy. Houston on the other hand hasn’t played since the day after Thanksgiving. I think if you have two weeks to get ready for a game, that’s more than enough. In fact, I actually think they are at an advantage having just payed, as there’s going to be some rust with Houston.

I get that extra time to prepare for Army and the triple-option is a big deal, but this will not be the Cougars defensive front that everyone was raving about coming into the year. Star defensive tackle, Ed Oliver is not going to play and he’s really the guy that made this unit great. They also lost starting defensive ends Jerad Carter and Isaiah Chambers to season ending injuries. Same thing with one of their top backups in Payton Turner.

We’re also talking about a Houston defense that did a complete 180 in terms of stopping the run this year. In the Cougars first 6 games of the season they allowed a mere 116 yards/game. Over their final 6 games they gave up 278.2 yards/game. Note that one of those was against Navy, who basically runs the same offense and the Midshipmen had 344 rushing yards.

Army’s rushing attack is better than Navy. In fact, the only team that averaged more rushing yards than the Black Knights was Georgia Tech, as Army came in 2nd at 296.3 yards/game.

Not only does Army figure to be able to move the ball, but Houston’s offense will still be without star quarterback D’Erig King, who basically did it all for this team. King had just under 3,000 yards passing with a 36-6 TD-INT ratio. He was also second on the team with 674 rushing yards and his 14 rushing touchdowns were as many as the rest of the team had combined. Give me Army -5

40* GASPARILLA BOWL ATS NO BRAINER (Marshall -3.5) 

I think the fact that this game is being played on South Florida’s home field and they are a dog to a team from a perceived worse conference, tells you all you need to know. I'll gladly lay the small number with the Thundering Herd in a game I think they have a realistic shot at winning in a blowout.

I don’t think the poor finish to the season for the Bulls was any kind of fluke. If anything, I think it showed us just how much of a fluke their 7-0 start really was. In fact, if you look closer at the numbers, USF is lucky to even be in a bowl game. They were down 2 scores in the 4th quarter to both Tulsa and Illinois and somehow won both. They trailed 24-9 in the 1st quarter of a win over East Carolina. They were also outgained by almost 200 yards in a win over Georgia Tech, where they had two kick returns for a TD.

Let’s also not forget South Florida was expected to take a step back this year, as they only had 11 returning starters and had to replace one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country in Quinton Flowers. Not to mention their two top rushers behind Flowers, who combined for over 1,800 yards and 18 scores.

The addition of Alabama transfer Blake Barnett did help ease the loss of Flowers, but he struggled to take care of the ball, throwing as many interceptions (11) as he did touchdowns (11). He might not even play due to a shoulder injury. 

USF will also be going up against a tough Marshall defense. The Thundering Herd finished 23rd in total defense, giving up just 335.6 ypg. They were also exceptional against the run, allowing just 104 yards/game and a mere 2.9 yards/carry.

On the flip side of this, the South Florida defense was not very good at all this year. Opposing teams did as they pleased against them. More times than not, just running it down their throats, as the Bulls allowed 245 yards/game and 5 yards/carry against the run. Give me Marshall -3.5!

40* NCAAF FRISCO BOWL ATS ANNIHILATOR (San Diego St +3) 

I just think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction to San Diego State's poor finish to the regular-season. While a loss is a loss, the storyline for the Aztecs could be very different if a few breaks had gone their way. In their 1-4 finish to the season, all 4 losses came by single-digits with 3 decided by 4 or less. 

I think Long will definitely use the underdog card to get his team fired up and I'm pretty confident they are the better team. Not to take anything away from Ohio's 8-wins this year, but the MAC is way down from what it's been in previous years. I wasn't all that impressed with this team in non-conference. They were 2-2 with the two wins coming against Howard and UMass. What really stood out to me is their defense, which gave up 38.3 ppg (at least 32 in all 4).

The Bobcats offense has carried this team. They are averaging 41.2 ppg and 471 ypg. Impressive, but again, I think it has a lot to with the easy schedule they have played. San Diego State has been a defensive force under Long. They gave up a mere 21.7 ppg this season and that was their highest mark in 5 years.

The big key here is that Ohio's offense is built on their running game. They come in averaging 262 ypg and 6.1 yards/carry. That plays right into the strength of the Aztecs' defense. San Diego State allowed a mere 94 yards/game and 2.7 yards/carry this season. There were 3 times Ohio failed to reach 150 rushing yards against a FBS opponent and they were 1-2 with a mere 1-point win at Kent State. They had 9 turnovers in those 3 games, compared to just 8 in their other 9 games combined. Give me San Diego State +3!

40* NEW ORLEANS BOWL VEGAS ATS NO-BRAINER (Middle Tenn +7) 

I'll take my chances here with Middle Tennessee as they are a serious live dog in this one. 

I just think there’s an art to getting a team to play well in a bowl game and clearly Scott Satterfield had something figured out. I just think him leaving for Louisville really throws a wrench into things and takes some of the focus off the actual game.

You got a defensive line coach that has to handle a job he’s not exactly prepared for and get his team ready in less than two weeks. There’s got to be some players thinking about transferring and I’m sure they are all checking in daily to see who they will get to replace Satterfield.

As far as the value is concerned with the number. Appalachian State started out the year 8-2 ATS, but they were overpriced in their two big games to end the year. They were a 12-point favorite in a 11-point win against Troy and favored by 18 in a 11-point win over Lafayette in title game. I just think 7-points is a lot to ask them to lay without their head coach against a team as talented as Middle Tennessee.

Not only were 3 of the 5 losses for the Blue Raiders true road games against SEC opponents, but their other two losses came by a combined 5-points. I just feel like a lot of people look at their 8-5 record and think they aren’t that great of a team coming out of Conference USA.

One of the big reasons I like them in this game is senior quarterback Brent Stockstill, who came into this season already the all-time leading passer in Middle Tennessee history. He completed 71% of his attempts for more than 3,200 yards and posted a 28-8 TD-INT ratio. He’s the son of the head coach and I have to think the entire team is going to play their hearts out to make sure his final game is one to remember. Give me the Blue Raiders +7!

50* NEW MEXICO BOWL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (N Texas +8.5)

I like the value here with North Texas. I not only think they are good enough to cover more than a touchdown spread, I think they can win this game outright. This isn’t a knock on Utah State, as I was really high on that team coming into the year. I just think these are two evenly matched teams.

I also think North Texas might be the more motivated team in this one. The Mean Green, they have a chance here to do something no other team has done at North Texas in roughly 70 years, win 10 games in a single season. Not to mention the fact that they are still searching for that first bowl win under Littrell. Speaking of Littrell, he just turned down an offer to be the new head coach at Kansas State to stay with the program. I think that says a lot about how much he likes the team he has and you have to believe the players will want to show him he made the right decision to stick around.

As for Utah State, I think there’s a lot of factors working against them. They watched their head coach, Matt Wells, leave to take over the job at Texas Tech. He’s going to take with him several coaches, including both the Aggies offensive and defensive coordinator. While some of the assistants will stick around for the bowl, I just think it’s a lot of distractions to deal with. 

Keep in mind that Utah State couldn’t have ended the year on a much worse note. The Aggies only loss in Mountain West play was a costly one and it came in their very last game of the regular season. The Aggies were a perfect 7-0 in MWC play until they fell 33-24 at Boise State on Nov. 24. That knocked them out of the MWC title game, which is what this team had their hearts set on playing in. 

More times than not, teams who suffer a devastating loss to end their season, have a really hard time showing up in their bowl game. I think it will be that much harder without their head coach and the fact that they are playing in what’s viewed as a pretty meaningless bowl game against a team they are expected to have no problem beating. 

Another big thing here for me is the North Texas quarterback. Junior Mason Fine is one of the best kept secrets in the country. Fine completed 65% of his 457 attempts for 3,734 yards with 27 touchdowns to a mere 5 interceptions. He threw for 4,052 yards with a 31-15 TD-INT ratio as a sophomore.

While Fine is a big reason for their success, he’s got some playmakers working alongside him. Running back DeAndre Torrey has just 942 yards, but is averaging 5.9 yards/carry and has 14 rushing touchdowns. Rico Bussey Jr. has hauled in 68 passes for 1,017 yards and 12 scores. Jalen Guyton has 50 receptions for 702 yards and 5 scores and Jaelon Darden has caught 46 for 567 and 4 scores.

I think the fact that the Mountain West is viewed as a much stronger conference than C-USA and the fact that Utah State nearly won at Michigan State in non-conference play, is a big reason why this line is so high. I get Arkansas was one of the worst teams in the SEC, but North Texas whooped them 44-17 in Fayetteville. Give me the Mean Green +8.5!

50* ARMY/NAVY VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Navy +8) 

I'll gladly grab the touchdown plus with the Midshipmen. I just think this is too many points to pass up in a game that figures to be low scoring. I know the records are miles apart, but I don’t think there’s as big a gap in talent as a lot of people think.

I think a lot of people are going to fall into the trap of overreacting to the fact that Army’s only two losses were true road games against Duke and Oklahoma (lost in OT 28-21). The rest of their resume isn’t anything to get excited about and they easily could have lost a few more than they did.

Navy played the much tougher schedule and I think the Midshipmen showed some positives down the stretch. They went on the road and gave UCF a scare, losing by a final score of 35-24. They then knocked off Tulsa at home and nearly had that epic comeback last time out at Tulane.

I also think the roles are reversed here. Army has been the big underdog in this series for nearly two decades and now they are favored for the first since 2001. Underdog has covered the spread in this game 6 of the last 7 years and I don’t think it’s out of the question that we get our third straight underdog to win the game outright.

A lot of people are going to point to Navy’s defense as the big weakness that will allow the Black Knights to get the win and cover, but Army is a mere 11-25 ATS in there last 36 games vs teams who allow 34 or more points/game. Black Knights are also just 3-9 ATS last 12 vs a team with a losing record. Midshipmen are an impressive 23-7 ATS in their last 30 road games when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3. Give me Navy +8!

50* NCAAF CONF CHAMPIONSHIP GAME OF THE YEAR (Memphis +3.5) 

I’m going to take the Memphis Tigers +3.5 over the UCF Knights in the AAC Title game. I was already leaning toward taking the Tigers in this game prior to the injury to McKenzie Milton, so no way am I not taking Memphis as a dog without him on the field.

I have zero doubt that the Knights are going to play their hearts out in honor of Milton, but I don’t think they will be any more motivated than the Tigers. Memphis has has lost 7 games the last two seasons combined and 3 of them are against UCF.None more excruciating than the 31-30 home loss earlier this season, where they had a 30-14 lead, didn’t score in the 2nd half and botched the clock when they were driving for a potential game-winning field goal.

Sometimes teams can lose their edge when an opponent loses a player like Milton, but that’s not going to happen with the revenge that Memphis is playing with and a conference title on the line. They certainly didn’t let it affect them last week when they took on Houston without their star quarterback D’Eriq King.

I know there’s more to the Knights than Milton, but there’s no arguing the quarterback is the most important position on the field. When you go from a Heisman contender under center to a backup with little experience, more times than not things aren’t going to go well.

Darriel Mack Jr. will get the nod and he did start the win over ECU earlier this year and played the 2nd half last week against the Bulls. He’s arguably a better runner than Milton, but he’s only completed 49% of his pass attempts and hasn’t thrown a touchdown in 43 attempts.

Keep in mind that’s against two pretty bad defenses in USF and East Carolina, so hard to expect things to magically get better against MemphisI just don’t think the UCF defense will be able to hold up and you can count on the Tigers looking to score every time they touch the ball after blowing that big lead to UCF earlier this season.

I also think this Tigers team is riding a massive wave of momentum. It would have been easy for this team to just go through the motions after starting 1-3 in league play, but they rallied the troops and can win a title and finally put an end to this UCF winning streak.Give me the Tigers +3.5! 

40* MAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME ATS NO-BRAINER (Buffalo -3.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Bulls here, even though the public is pounding them. I just think Buffalo is hands down the more talented team and that’s no disrespect to Northern Illinois. I think the numbers really speak for themselves. They remind me a lot of FAU last year in terms of how the books could just never catchup to them. 

Buffalo outscored opponents in conference play by 10.9 ppg and outgained them by 88.1 ypg. Northern Illinois outscored opponents by 5.3 ppg and outgained them by 38 ypg. Some might want to point to that ugly loss for the Bulls down the stretch to Ohio (who lost to Northern Illinois), but note that the Bulls were in a position to lose that game and still win the division in a very favorable matchup with Bowling Green.

The biggest thing for me is I just don’t think Northern Illinois’ offense can keep pace in this one. Buffalo has shown they are capable of annihilating defenses if they aren’t ready. They got a special player in junior quarter back Tyree Jackson and a potent 1-2 punch out of the backfield in Jaret Patterson and Kevin Marks, who have combined for 1,607 yards and 23 touchdowns (Jackson also has 7 rushing touchdowns).

It’s going to take a perfect game-plan here for the Huskies just to keep this game competitive. I also think people are sleeping on Buffalo head coach Lance Leipold and his ability to guide his team to victory in big games. The guy went 109-6 in 8 years at Div III power Wisconsin-Whitewater, playing for the national championship in 7 of those 8 years and winning it 6 times.

Bulls are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against MAC opponent, while Northern Illinois is a mere 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games played on a neutral site and 0-6 ATS in their 6 games under head coach Rod Carey as a neutral site underdog. Give me the Bulls -3.5! 

40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS KNOCKOUT (Texas A&M -3) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Aggies laying just a field goal at home against the Tigers. I just think there's a huge home field edge here for Texas A&M and that's only magnified by this being a prime time game under the lights at Kyle Field. Not to mention the line really says it all here with the No. 7 ranked team in the country listed as a dog. 

The Aggies only home loss this season came at the hands of Clemson in a crushing 28-26 defeat. I think there's a lot of motivation for this team to finish strong and really build on what's been a positive first year under Jimbo Fisher. I just don't know that this game means as much for LSU, who really has nothing to play for at 9-2. 

The even bigger factor here for me is the matchup. LSU is very limited offensively and really need to be able to run the football effectively to stay on the field. That's not going to be easy against a Texas A&M defense that ranks 2nd in the nation against the run, giving up just 80.8 yards/game. It's no fluke, as they held Clemson to 115 yards, Alabama to 109, Benny Snell and Kentucky to 70 and Auburn a few weeks back to just 19. 

As far as the Aggies offense is concerned, they have faced a bunch of elite defenses and been able to put points on the board. I just don't see LSU being able to keep pace. Give me Texas A&M -3! 

50* NCAAF IN-STATE RIVALRY GAME OF THE YEAR (Kentucky -16.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Wildcats in this clash with in-state rival Louisville. I played against Kentucky in that first game after the devastating loss to Georgia and they to no surprise lost the game outright. Just a really horrible spot for a team going from playing for a spot in their conference title game to just having to finish out the season. They slopped it up against last week against Middle Tennessee, but I think we are going to see Kentucky revert back to that early season form against the Cardinals. 

If you check the quotes of these Kentucky players, they haven't forgot about that ugly 44-17 defeat Louisville put on them last year. Star running back Benn Snell was quoted saying "I've still got a bad taste in my mouth from last year" 

I just don't know what makes anyone think Louisville is going to magically figure this out. You typically see teams play well and with a lot of fight in the first game after their head coach was fired. Louisville went out and lost at home to a pretty average NC State by 42 points. With how atrocious the Cardinals are defensively and how dominant Kentucky is on the defensive side of the ball, the Wildcats should have zero problem turning this into a blowout and covering the spread. Give me Kentucky -16.5! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD UNDERDOG SHOCKER (UNC +7.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Tar Heels as 7.5-point home dog against the Wolfpack. I just think this number is a reflection of NC State coming into this game at 7-3 and UNC being at 2-8. I just don't think there's that big a gap between these two teams right now, as this line suggest NC State would be more than a double-digit favorite on a neutral site. 

This was just a tough year for the Tar Heels, who had all those suspensions early on and a bunch of really tough losses. I just think that while they are a 2-win team on paper, they are closer to a 6-win team in terms of talent and honesty I think this should be closer to a pick'em. NC State has been overvalued since their 5-0 start and we saw some of that in a 4-point loss at home to WaKe Forest as a 18.5-point favorite. 

You also have to factor in the motivation here for UNC. They have lost the last two in the series and there's some rumblings that a loss here might cost head coach Larry Fedora his job. Add in this being senior night and this team needing some kind of motivation going into next year and I really like the home dog win this one outright. Give me the Tar Heels +7.5! 

40* NCAAF UNDERDOG ATS MASSACRE (S Florida +14.5) 

I'll take my chances here with USF getting more than two touchdowns at home. As hard as it is to bet against the Knights, I just think this is way too many points for them to be laying on the road. 

I know USF is coming into this game not exactly playing well, but there are some positives mixed in their 4-game losing streak. They only trailed Houston by 7-points going into the 4th quarter of what turned out to be 21-point loss. They were only outgained by 2-yards in a shocking 41-15 loss at home to Tulane and had 2nd half leads in their last two defeats to Cincinnati and Temple. While the schedule was easy, you don’t go 7-0 without some decent talent and one of those wins was against a Georgia Tech team that is sitting at 7-4 (5-3 ACC).

No question this one was going to mean something a little more after losing that big game to UCF last year, but there’s that much more incentive for USF to lay it all on the line with the Knights perfect record on the line. No better revenge for the Bulls than snapping Central Florida’s 23-game winning streak.

I also think it’s pretty clear that the only way you are competing with the Knights is if you put points on the scoreboard. I think USF is definitely capable of doing that. They come in averaging 31.2 ppg and 458 ypg. I also think it’s worth looking back to an earlier road game for UCF at Memphis, where they were only a 4.5-point favorite. Not only did the Tigers cover as a mere 4.5-point dog, they should have won the game (led 30-14).

The fact USF is a 14.5-point home dog, says the Tigers would be a 10-point favorite over the Bulls on a neutral field. No way is that legit. I think it’s a clear indication of how inflated this line is. The most important thing to remember is you aren’t betting who will win, all we need is for South Florida to keep this within two touchdowns. Give me the Bulls +14.5!

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (E Carolina +19.5)

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Virginia -4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Virginia putting an end to the losing streak against their in-state rivals and covering this small number on the road. The Cavaliers haven't beat the Hokies since they won 35-21 at home way back in 2003. Virginia Tech has won 14 straight, but this is not your typical Hokies team. 

This season took a turn for the worse when starting quarterback Josh Jackson went down, then things really got ugly when the injuries started to pile up on a young and inexperienced defense. It's that Hokies defense that makes me extremely confident the Cavaliers can go into Blacksburg and get the win. 

Virginia Tech is giving up 40.3 ppg and 463 ypg (7.4 yards/play) over their last 3 games. They just gave up 38 points to a Miami team that was having all kinds of problems scoring. Virginia has scored at least 27 in 4 of their last 5 and I think they have no problem eclipsing 30 here (Hokies allowing 36 ppg at home). 

While the Cavaliers are piling on the points, I look for the Virginia Tech offense to have a hard time keeping pace against a very talented Virginia defense that is holding their opponents a touchdown below their scoring average on the season. Give me the Cavaliers -4.5! 

40* NCAAF EGG BOWL ATS NO-BRAINER (Miss St -12.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs covering the big number against the Rebels on Thanksgiving. I'm sure a lot of people will be quick to point out the fact that the last two years the outright winner has been a double-digit dog. However, I think that trends comes to an end, as I see this getting out of hand. Mississippi State will be out for revenge and any thoughts of this team throwing in the towel after that loss at Alabama, were thrown out the window in last week's 52-6 win against Arkansas. For me, I just think this Bulldogs defense is one of the best in the country and will be able to shutdown this Ole Miss offense. On the flip side of this, I think the Mississippi State offense is starting to come alive and should be able to move the ball at will against this awful Rebels defense. Give me the Bulldogs -12.5! 

50* NCAAF NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH (Syracuse +10.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Orange as a double-digit dog against the Fighting Irish. I really like what Dino Babers has done at Syracuse and I just don't think the experts give this team enough respect. They want to discredit them for their lack of quality wins. Their best win is probably a home victory against NC State. With that said, they had Clemson on the ropes and that was with Lawrence under center. They only lost by 4-points on the road. Their other loss is a mere 7-point loss at Pitt the very next week after that heartbreaking loss to the Tigers. While these are two ranked teams, all the pressure is on Notre Dame, who needs just a win here and a win at USC to lock up a spot in the playoffs. Syracuse has nothing to lose and everything to gain, as this would be another huge win for this program. I just think they got the talent to slow that Notre Dame offense down, which hasn't exactly had continuity at the quarterback position of late. I'm willing to be the offense does enough to keep this within single-digits and maybe even win outright. Give me Syracuse +10.5! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ODDSMAKERS ERROR  (Colorado +7.5) 

*Analysis Coming* 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Minnesota -2.5)

*Analysis Coming* 

40* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK (Baylor +1) 

I'll take my chances here with Baylor at basically a pick'em at home against TCU. I think the only thing keeping the Bears from being a bigger favorite, is the fact that TCU comes in at 4-6 and would need to win their final two games to make a bowl. This team has won 11 or more 3 of the last 4 years, fighting for a meaningless bowl game isn't that important to them. Not to mention, they have shown absolutely nothing on the field to make you believe they are going to turn things around. Baylor is in just year two under Matt Rhule and won just one game all of last year. Getting back to a bowl would mean a lot for this program and I expect this team to lay it all on the line. That should be more than enough for them to secure a win on their home field. Give me Baylor +1! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (North Texas -4) 

While the Owls do still need 1-more win to get bowl eligible, they got a home game against Charlotte on deck to secure it. I’m not saying they aren’t going to show for this game, I just don’t think they will be as motivated for this contest as North Texas.

This is a bit of a revenge game for the Mean Green, as FAU defeated them in last year’s C-USA Championship Game. In fact, the Owls handed North Texas their only two losses in conference play all of last year. Florida Atlantic outscored the Mean Green 110-48 in those two games.

I would be shocked if a team that returned 52 lettermen and 17 starters didn’t have this game circled as soon as the schedule was released. It might also have a little bit to do with their 2nd half collapse last week against Old Dominion. Not to mention the extra hype that comes with a weekday game and this being senior night (last home game). I expect them to give everything thing they got left in the tank for this one and I just don’t see the Owls matching that intensity.

Not to mention I think North Texas is the better team here. The Mean Green could very easily be sitting at 10-0 right now. They are outscoring teams 40.4 to 18.4 at home this season and FAU is getting outscored 26.0 to 37.8 on the road.

I think we are getting value not only from what happened last year in this series, but the Owls having covered 2 straight and North Texas having only covered 1 of their last 6. Give me the Mean Green -4!

40* NCAAF TUES NIGHT MAC ATS KNOCKOUT (Ball State +7.5) 

I just think the value is with the Cardinals at this price. Both teams will be without their starting quarterback. Western Michigan’s Jon Wassink is out indefinitely with an ankle injury and Ball State’s Riley Neal is out with a knee injury. I just think Wassink’s injury really levels the playing field in this one.

Prior to getting hurt, Wassink had basically completed 62% of his attempts for 2,000 yards with a 16-6 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for 162 yards and was second on the team with 6 rushing touchdowns. Backup Kaleb Eleby filled in nicely for Wassink against Toledo, but was just 10 of 19 for 152 yards with 2 picks last week vs Ohio.

I know there’s still hope of winning the MAC East, but I just think the life was kind sucked out of this team when Wassink went down. I’m banking on the Cardinals to show up for this one. I think backup Drew Plitt surprised people with how well he played in place of Neal against Toledo, throwing for 340 yards. While they lost the game by 32-points, they were within 100 total yards of the Rockets. This is also senior night for Ball State, so the effort should be there

I just think this one should be closer to a pick’em given the circumstances, which is why I would have to grab the touchdown and the hook with the home side. Give me the Cardinals +7.5!

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Tennessee +6 ) 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Miss St +24.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs at this price in this spot. Even the elite teams like Alabama are vulnerable to letdowns. I just think watching how excited Nick Saban and Alabama were with that win over LSU, that was a massive game to them and it should have been. That win locked up the SEC West and put Alabama in a tremendous position to make the CFB Playoff (yet again). 

I think the biggest takeaway for me with the LSU game was how the Tigers defense was able to at least slow down the Crimson Tide offense. I think Mississippi State has every bit as good a defense, if not better, than the Tigers. If they can hold Alabama to under 30 points, I'm willing to bet they cover this massive spread and even if the Crimson Tide score 30+, I think the defense is going to give up a few more big plays in this one and the backdoor cover will be wide open if needed. Give me the Bulldogs +24.5

50* NCAAF ACC GAME OF THE MONTH (Pitt -3 ) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Panthers winning at home against the Hokies. Pittsburgh leads the ACC Coastal at 4-1 and with a win here they would move dangerously close to securing a spot in the ACC Championship Game, as the only team without 3 conference losses would be Virginia and they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. 

I just think there's teams that the public struggles to buy into, regardless of what the record or numbers suggest. I believe Pitt is one of those teams, as they might have been the last team people picked to win this division and we have seen them lose badly to the likes of Penn State (51-6) and UCF (45-14).

Teams do improve over the course of a season and since that loss to the Knights, the Panthers only defeat is a 5-point setback at Notre Dame and they had a 14-6 halftime lead against the Irish. 

Virginia Tech is also no where close to on the same level as that Penn State team early in the year and UCF. The Hokies have quite the brand name and I think some of that is playing into this low number. 

This is not the same Virginia Tech team that started the year as a Coastal contender. They lost starting quarterback Josh Jackson and have had all kinds of injuries on a defense that was extremely young and inexperienced to begin with. 

In the Hokies last 4 games they have allowed 167 rushing yards to Notre Dame, 235 to North Carolina, 465 to Georgia Tech and 219 to BC. Pitt has the No. 20 ranked rushing attack in the country at 230.8 ypg. Add in home field and there's no way the Panthers shouldn't be a bigger favorite here. Give me Pittsburgh -3! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS NO-BRAINER (UNC +10.5) 

I'll take my chances here with UNC as 10.5-point dog. I can't believe we are getting 10 points + the hook, as I think this game is a complete toss up. Duke might be the better overall team and the records definitely suggest that, but keep in mind that the Tar Heels had a bunch of players suspended early and that really messed with the chemistry of this team. 

I know they come into this game having lost 5 in a row, with each of the last two coming by double-digits. The thing is, if you look back at the last 4 games during this stretch, UNC was in a great position to win every one of those games. I expect them to keep fighting until they break through and end this losing streak and you know they would love nothing more than to celebrate a win on their rivals home field. 

Duke just went on the road and beat Miami as a 9-point dog, but that Hurricane's team is in a bad place as they struggle to realize they aren't as good as they thought coming into the season. Regardless of what state the Hurricanes were/are in, that was a big win for the Blue Devils, as they don't celebrate many wins at Miami. Could be really hard for them to shake off that big win and give UNC their full attention with a much bigger game against Clemson on deck. Note that Duke is pretty much out of the ACC Coastal race and already bowl eligible at 6-3. Give me the Tar Heels +10.5! 

50* NCAAF SEC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH (Missouri -16) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Missouri to win by at least 17 at home against the Commodores. The Tigers might have the same 1-4 record as Vandy in SEC play, but there's no doubt Missouri is the better team. 

While both teams are getting outgained in SEC play, Missouri is only -55.8, where the Commodores are -149.6 ypg. Note that the Tigers have played Alabama and Vandy has not. If you just look at the 4 common opponents these two teams have played. Missouri has outgained these teams by 18.3 ypc and outscored them by 1.0 ppg. Vandy has been outgained by 185.7 and outscored by 17.0 ppg. 

Drew Lock and that Missouri offense have had their way with bad defenses. The only teams to keep them in check are Georgia, Kentucky and Alabama. They have scored at least 35 on every other team and that includes 38 last week at Florida. Vandy has allowed 35+ points in 4 of their last 6 and one of the exceptions is Tennessee State, who had 27. 

Missouri's defense is more than good enough to keep the Commodores from scoring enough to keep this within the number, especially at home. Give me the Tigers -16! 

50* FRESNO ST/BOISE ST MWC GAME OF THE MONTH (Fresno St -2.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs as a small road favorite against the Broncos. The fact that Boise State only comes into this game with one more loss than Fresno and are a home dog in a prime time game, tells you all you need to know. This Bulldogs team is the real deal and have one of the best defenses in the country that few know about. We saw Boise State managed just 13 points against a good San Diego State team in a 6-point home loss to the Aztecs (Broncos were favored by 13). I just don't see Boise being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Note that Broncos are now without leading tackler in linebacker Riley Whimpey, who tore his ACL in their last game against BYU. Add in revenge from last year's MWC title game and this could get ugly. Give me the Bulldogs -2.5! 

40* WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAC ATS KNOCKOUT (N Illinois -3) 

I'll take my chances here with the Huskies as a small home favorite. Northern Illinois has won 5 straight and are on a mission to take back control of the MAC. Keep in mind they are 6-3 overall and all 3 losses have come against Power 5 opponents (Iowa, Utah & FSU).

I just think because they aren’t a flashy team that puts up a lot of points, it has them still flying a bit under the radar. Hard for people to trust a Northern Illinois team that is averaging 19.2 ppg to beat a Toledo squad that comes in scoring 41.2 ppg.

The thing is, the Huskies have one of the best defenses in the country and while the overall numbers don’t show it, they are scoring a modest 26.8 ppg in conferences play. Going back to the defense, they rank 32nd in the country, allowing a mere 346.9 ypg and are strong up front. Northern Illinois ranked 13th against the run (103.8 ypg) and are giving up a mere 2.6 yards/carry.

While they are outgaining opponents in conference play by 51.4 yards/game, Toledo is actually getting outgained by 7.2 yards/game.

The Rockets simply don’t have a great defense and are forced to try to outscore teams to beat them. That works against a lot of teams, but chances are they will struggle to pull out wins against a team like Northern Illinois.

I know Toledo comes into this game off a couple of lopsided wins, as they won at Western Michigan 51-24 the week before crushing Ball State 45-13. What you have to keep in mind with those two wins, is Western Michigan lost starting quarterback Jon Wassink was injured early and they got Ball State without Riley Neal, who does it all for that team.

Even going up against inexperienced backups this Toledo defense struggled. Ball State’s Drew Plitt threw for 340 yards and Western Michigan’s Kaleb Eleby threw for 293 yards and 2 scores (next game at home against Ohio was 10 of 19 for 152 yards and 2 picks).

You always want to check the forecast this late in the season, and conditions here aren’t great for scoring, which I feel definitely favors the Huskies. It’s expected to be right around 32 degrees at kickoff with winds blowing at close to 10 mph. Give me Northern Illinois -3!

40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT ATS DESTROYER (Washington -10) 

I went against Washington a couple weeks ago with Colorado as a double-digit road dog and cashed a winning ticket. Some might think I would be considering taking Stanford as a double-digit dog, especially after just watching the Huskies lose at Cal as a 11-point favorite. Not a chance. I believe this line is telling you who the books think is going to show up on Saturday. The public is going to poor in on the Cardinal at this price. No way they make Stanford a double-digit dog if they think that's the right side. I think the big upset was lurking after Washington lost that shot at a national title with their second loss of the season against Oregon. However, now that they have hit rock bottom, I'm willing to be Chris Peterson will be able to get them to show up at home under the lights. This Stanford defense can be exposed and if Washington's defense brings the intensity, this won't be close. Give me the Huskies -10! 

50* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Texas Tech +13.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Red Raiders as a near two touchdown dog. I think a lot of people see Oklahoma as this unbeatable team in the Big 12 and capable of covering any spread they come across. I'm not saying they aren't good, but this is a big number for them to be laying against a quality Texas Tech team (better than they have been in years). The Red Raiders are actually tackling people and playing a little defense. With the way this team can score, especially at home, I see no reason to think they can't keep this within 10-points. With this game coming at night, I think it gives Texas Tech a very good shot of winning this game outright. Much like how LSU's Tiger Stadium turns into something different under the lights on Saturday night, the same thing happens in Lubbock with Jones AT&T Stadium. Give me the Red Raiders +13.5! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Michigan -12) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Michigan. To a lot of people this line will make no sense. They will think there's no way Penn State should be getting this many points, especially after how they beat them 42-13 last year. To me I see a much-improved Wolverines team that has been itching for two weeks to get their revenge on the Nittany Lions. A Penn State team I think is overrated and ready to be exposed. Michigan had this same mindset in their two previous games against Wisconsin and Michigan State. Both games they won and covered as a lot bigger favorites than a lot of people thought they should be. While Michigan is fresh, the Nittany Lions are banged up after a very physical game against Iowa. I also don't think this Penn State team is playing with the same edge after those back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Michigan State. While not out of it, it's really a long shot. They would still need Michigan to lose again and the only potential loss left on the schedule for the Wolverines is at Ohio State. The only way that matters is if the Buckeyes lose another game before that, as they are 1-game up on the Nittany Lions. Give me Michigan -12! 

50* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE MONTH (Kentucky +9.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Kentucky as a near double-digit home dog to Georgia. There's something special about this Wildcats team and they have absolutely embraced this underdog role. To rally the way they did last week against Missouri, is going to have this team as excited for a game as they have been in quite some time. The atmosphere under the lights at Kroger Field will be electric and we have already seen the Bulldogs crumble in a hostile environment at LSU. A game they lost by 20 as a 6.5-point favorite. Not to mention, if Kentucky wins this game they will simply need to beat Tennessee to lock up the East Division and a spot in the SEC Championship Game. There only loss all year came at Texas A&M in overtime by 6-points. I just don't think Georgia is like Alabama, where they are unbeatable, yet that's the feeling a lot of people had coming into this year. Give me the Wildcats +9.5 and sprinkle a little on that money line! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS SLAUGHTER (Purdue -2.5) 

I'll take my chances with Purdue laying less than a field goal at home to the Hawkeyes. ’m immediately drawn to unranked teams that are favorites against a team that is ranked in the Top 25. I think the books are tipping their hand to the side you should be taking and if you play them consistently, you are going to wind up on top. With that said, the line isn’t the only reason I’m taking the Boilermakers to win this game. I think Iowa’s loss to Penn State will be much harder for the Hawkeyes to rebound from than Purdue’s loss at Michigan State. 

40* NCAAF SITUATIONAL ATS KNOCKOUT (Texas -2) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Longhorns laying less than a field goal at home against West Virginia. I know the Mountaineers are sitting No. 13 in the country and tied with Oklahoma on top the Big 12 at 4-1. I know they got a great QB/WR duo with Grier and Stills. I just think it has them getting way too much respect. The best team West Virginia has played all year is Iowa State, who I think is the 3rd best team in the Big 12 behind Oklahoma and Texas. The Mountaineers didn't just lose to the Cyclones, they were completely outmatched on both sides of the ball. Iowa State held them to 152 total yards and 14 points (scored non-offensive TD). They also gave up 498 total yards to the Cyclones, who threw for 254 yards and 3 scores and ran for 244 yards and a score. Texas is better than they were last week at Oklahoma State and this team has been a force at home this season. This isn't just another game. The winner of this game not only has a shot at the regular-season title, but it really puts them in the driver seat to at least make the Big 12 title game, which is really what both these teams want. The atmosphere will carry Texas to a win. Give me the Longhorns -2! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Iowa St -14.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Iowa State laying just 14.5-points on the road against Kansas. I really like this Cyclones team and while I think they are getting some love from the experts and media (ranked in CFB playoff Top 25), I don't think the public is 100% on board. For a lot of people, they are going to just look at the Cyclones overall body of work and see they are 4-3 with good wins and some not so great performances. The thing is this team could easily be 6-1 and I'm not so sure they don't beat Oklahoma at home if Brock Purdy was the starter. Purdy is why this team is still showing value. This is a different team with him at quarterback.He took over in the win at Oklahoma State  and they haven't lost since destroying West Virginia at home and knocking of TCU. Kansas is better than they have been in a while and they are off a surprising upset win over TCU, which I think is also playing into this line. That Horned Frogs team is in a really bad place right now, so take that win however you want, but I'm not all that impressed. This team lost by 20 to Oklahoma St, 16 to W Virginia and 32 to Texas Tech. The same 3 teams ISU has beat since Purdy took over. I think the Cyclones have to play their worst and Kansas plays their best for this to even sniff being a two-touchdown game. Give me ISU -14.5! 

50* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Colorado +3) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Buffaloes going into Tucson and secure a win over the Wildcats. It doesn’t get much worse than losing a game where you have a 28-point lead in the 2nd half. There’s two ways to respond from a loss like that. It either cripples you or it lights a fire under you. I got a good feeling that Mike MacIntyre’s squad will be ready to go on Friday.

There’s a lot of guys in that locker room who remember what Tate did to them last year (set FBS quarterback rushing record, 327 yards). Not to mention they want revenge for loss they got handed on their home field. On top of that, they have to be thinking they might need this game to make a bowl, which is crazy given they were 5-0.

Their next two are at home against Washington St and Utah. Two of the best teams in the conference. They end the year at Cal, who just upset Washington at home. A win here also keeps them alive in the Pac-12 South race, which should be more than enough motivation on it’s own for them to show up.

As for Arizona, I’m just not buying a whole lot into their blowout win against Oregon. I think they caught the Ducks about as flat as you will find a team. Oregon had just lost 34-20 at Washington State to end a streak of 4 straight games against Top 25 teams. Two of which were the marquee 'GameDay' matchup. 

They clearly didn’t look like they were ready to play and the numbers kind of suggest that. No disrespect to the Arizona defense, but for the Ducks to only put up 270 yards says it all.

Even after that great performance against Oregon, the Wildcats come into this game ranked 93rd against the run (183.4 ypg) and 81st against the pass (238.2 ypg). I know Tate had a good game, but we have seen this Arizona offense struggle against better defensive teams.

Colorado is a respectable 46th against the run and 63rd vs the pass. This team held Washington to 351 total yards and 27 points on the road. If they simply do that against Arizona, they will be in great shape to win here by double-digits. Give me the Buffaloes +3!

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Temple +11) 

I'll take my chances here with the Owls as a big double-digit underdog. As impressive as this UCF run has been, the Knights are going to slip up at some point and I think it could be this game. Either way, I think UCF is way overvalued here against a very good Temple team. 

The Knights should have already lost, as they pulled off a miraculous 31-30 win at Memphis a few weeks back, where they trailed 30-14 in the 2nd quarter. They were outgained by the Tigers 490 to 461 and had a 27-18 edge in first downs. I just think that game is a good indicator of the type of team that can beat UCF and I definitely feel Temple fits that mold.

The Owls feature a great defense that has been battle tested. Temple is 25th in the country, giving up just 330 yards/game. They are giving just 4.2 yards/play against teams that average 5.5 yards/play. They are holding teams almost 75 yards under their season average and a touchdown under their scoring average. I know McKenzie Milton is expected to play, but he might be limited some with that ankle injury. Knowing that he’s just one wrong hit away from aggravating it, he might be hesitant to run, which is what makes him such a dangerous player.

I also think this UCF defense is one that Temple’s offense can expose. The Knights are giving up 448 yards/game in conference play and that’s a bit concerning given the only real team they have played is Memphis. The other 3 were against UConn, SMU an  ECU, who are a combined 2-10 in league play.

The other thing here is we can bank on a max effort here from the Owls, who not only want revenge from last year’s embarrassing loss, but they want to be the one that puts an end to the Knights win streak. I think they pull it off, but I’m confident they keep this within the number. Give me the Owls +11!

40* NCAAF TUESDAY NIGHT MAC KNOCKOUT (Miami +7) 

I'll take my chances with the RedHawks. I think a lot of people have been on this Buffalo team early on and the Bulls have rewarded them with a 6-1 ATS stretch, including three straight covers. Most will overlook the fact that Miami has covered 5 straight and just assume this 3-5 team won’t be able to keep it within a touchdown on the road against the Bulls.

I just don’t think there’s a whole lot that separates these two teams in terms of actual talent on the field. Buffalo is averaging 31.0 ppg in MAC play, while allowing just 18.7. Miami is averaging 37.2 ppg and giving up just 21.5. I know you can’t read too much into common opponents, but it is worth noting that the RedHawks lost to Army in double-overtime, while Buffalo lost 42-13 at home to the Black Knights. The Bulls also only beat Akron 24-6 at home, while Miami won 41-17 on the road against the Zips.

Both teams have big time playmakers at quarterback. The Redhawks have senior Gus Ragland, who has completed 60.6% of his attempts with a 14-3 TD-INT ration. Buffalo has junior Tyree Jackson, who despite a mere 56.6% completion rate, has a 20-8 TD-INT ratio.

Defensively both teams are really good, but strictly based off numbers, the Bulls hold a slight edge. Miami is 38th in the country (350 ypg) and Buffalo is 26th (331). However, both teams are giving up an identical 4.9 yards/play.

I would have this game listed as a pick’em on a neutral field, which means both teams would be around a 3 to 3.5 point home favorite. Not only is Miami showing great value at this price, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they won this game outright. Give me the RedHawks +7!

40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS MASSACRE (Mississippi St -1) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs as a small home favorite against Texas A&M. Texas A&M is a team I think a lot of people are taking notice of right now. They are now No. 16 in the country at 5-2 and their 2 losses are against Clemson and Alabama. Not to mention all the respect Jimbo Fisher gets as a head coach. 

This line is absolutely begging the public to take Texas A&M. Mississippi State just lost and failed to cover at LSU (scored just 3 points) and are just 1-3 in their last 4 games. I'm going the other way and taking the Bulldogs to win this one at home. 

While Mississippi State comes in struggling, there's no denying the talent that is on this team. They got one of the best defensive lines in the country and a dynamic quarterback who is really tough to stop when he's on his game. 

I expecting to see a pissed off and highly motivated Bulldogs team at home in what will be an electric atmosphere at Davis Wade Stadium under the lights on ESPN. The Aggies have won 3 straight, but could have lost all 3. They only won by 7 at home against Arkansas, by 6 at home against Kentucky and by 3 last time out at South Carolina. 

I think the fact that their only two losses are against Clemson and Alabama, has people thinking they are a little better than they are. They too might think that and it's just hard to win on the road in the SEC. Give me the Bulldogs -1! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Missouri -7) 

I'll take my chances here with Missouri at home in this one. Kentucky is 6-1 and ranked No. 12 in the country and getting 7 against a Missouri team that is 4-3 and 0-3 in the SEC. It makes no sense. Whenever I see a line like this, I'm almost always going to take the favorite, as I just feel the books are telling you what side to bet. 

Kentucky's defense is really good, but this Missouri offense is one of the more potent units in the SEC and has a big time quarterback in Drew Lock. Add in playing at home and I think the Tigers will be able to move the ball. 

The other key here is the Wildcats offense has zero threat of a passing attack and star running back Benny Snell is banged up. Missouri has the perception of being a bad defensive team, but they really matchup well here. The Tigers are awful against the pass, but are ranked 34th in the country, giving up just 131.6 ypg on the ground. 

I just have a hard time seeing the Wildcats keep pace offensively in this one and if the offense struggles to run, it greatly increases the chances of turnovers and Missouri getting the ball with great field position. I think the Tigers get the lead early and coast to a big home win. Give me the Tigers -7! 

40* NCAAF SITUATIONAL ATS KNOCKOUT (Houston -7.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Houston laying over a touchdown at home against undefeated and No. 21 ranked USF (7-0). Most are going to look at this line and not even hesitate to take the Bulls at 7.5. Anytime I see a line that looks this off, I'm going to take the side that doesn't make sense almost every time. 

This line tells me the books don't just expect the Cougars to win this game, but they expect them to blowout South Florida. A closer look and it's easy to see why Houston is the right side. The Bulls are simply 7-0 because of their schedule. Their best win of the season was a home victory over Georgia Tech, where they had two kickoff returns for touchdowns and were outgained by 176 yards (gave up 602 yards). 

Their other 6 opponents are Elon, Illinois, E Carolina, UMass, Tulsa and Connecticut. The offense is putting up 35.6 ppg, but it's come against teams that on average give up 36.0 ppg. In comparison, Houston is averaging 48.7 ppg against teams that only give up 34.8 ppg. 

Not to mention they are 86th in the country, giving up 410 ypg, which has come against teams that only average 378. The Cougars average 555 and 7.4 yards/play. This team is going to score at will against the Bulls at home and I just don't think USF can keep pace. Give me Houston -7.5! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Florida +7) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Florida as a touchdown underdog to the Bulldogs. I just think this thing should be closer to a pick'em with it being on a natural field. This Georgia team is still getting mad love from the public for what they did last year. 

Most are just tossing up that 36-16 loss at LSU as a bad game for Georgia, like they had last year with Auburn. That might be the case, but I personally just think it's a sign that this team isn't as good as everyone makes them out to be. Their two toughest games before that were at Missouri and at South Carolina, which are decent but not great teams. 

Florida isn't another middle of the pack opponent. This Gators team is the real deal. Dan Mullen has worked his magic in year one and has this team playing as well as we have seen in years. They beat the same LSU team that rolled Georgia 27-19. 

There's no doubt in my mind Florida is going to feed off the underdog role and I don't think they just cover. I fully expect them to win this game outright. Give me the Gators +7! 

50* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE YEAR (Iowa St -5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with ISU as a small home favorite against the Red Raiders. I think Iowa State might be one of the most underrated teams in the entire country right now and certainly don’t feel like they are getting near enough respect with this small line.

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS NO-BRAINER (Minnesota +2) 

I'll take my chances on the Golden Gophers as a home dog, as I think the wrong team is favored in this one. I just think we are seeing a big overreaction to how these teams played this past Saturday, with Indiana nearly upsetting a ranked team and Minnesota losing badly to a team that hadn’t won a game.

I think a lot of people are overlooking the fact that was a tough spot for the Gophers. Minnesota had just laid it all on the line the previous week in a loss at then No. 3 Ohio State. They were primed for a letdown after that big effort and it’s not like Nebraska was commanding a ton of respect. While the Gophers came out flat, the Cornhuskers were all-in, trying to get that first win of the season. Note that after falling behind 28-0, they pulled within 28-22 before running out of steam in the 2nd half.

I’m willing to bet P.J. Fleck is going to have his troops ready to go for this game and there’s no question he’s going to use the fact that they are getting no respect as a home dog to Indiana as a motivator.

As for the Hoosiers great showing against Penn State, you have to keep in mind that the Nittany Lions were coming off a crushing 21-17 loss at home to Michigan State, which all but ruined any hopes they had of winning the Big Ten East and making the 4-team playoff. I don’t think it will be the last time Penn State struggles against a lessor opponent down the stretch.

This will be the 3rd time Indiana has been a road favorite this season. They failed to cover either of the first two, winning by just 10 as a 13-point favorite at FIU and by a mere 7-points on the road against an awful Rutgers team as a 14.5-point favorite. Not to mention, I think this is a big letdown spot for the Hoosiers after laying it all on the line against the Nittany Lions and having to feel like they gave that game away.

Indiana is a mere 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road game and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a game where they covered the number. Gophers are 11-3-3 ATS in their last 17 off a ATS loss and 5-1 in their last 6 after giving up 40 or more points. Give me Minnesota +2!

40* NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (Miami -3.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hurricanes as a small road favorite against the Eagles. I simply think we are seeing a favorable number here with Miami, due to the fact that they come in off that loss to Virginia.

Boston College comes into this game at 5-2. Their 5 wins have come against UMass, Holy Cross, Wake Forest, Temple and Louisville. The two best wins are the road victory against the Demon Deacons and the home win over the Owls. While they won each of those by at least a touchdown, they yardage battle was basically even against Wake Forest and they were outgained by Temple.

In their two big step up games the Eagles lost 30-13 at Purdue and 28-23 at NC State. At the time the close loss to the Wolfpack looked solid, given NC State was undefeated and ranked in the Top 25. However, that loss looks a bit worse after the Wolfpack got annihilated 41-7 by Clemson this past Saturday.

The other thing to note is how bad Boston College’s defense has been in a lot of these games against better teams. They gave 512 total yards to Wake Forest, 372 to Purdue, 452 to Temple and 533 to NC State.

I know Miami’s offense has been hit or miss, but I like that head coach Mark Richt is going back to veteran quarterback Malik Rosier after turning over the reigns the last 4 games to red-shirt freshman N’Kosi Perry. While Perry provided a bit more in the passing game, he was careless with the football. He’s also not near the runner that Rosier is. Perry has 32 attempts for 51 yards and 0 touchdowns. Rosier has 32 attempts for 107 yards and 6 scores.

Even if the Hurricanes offense doesn’t put up a big number offensively, I still think they can win and cover with their defense. Miami has one of the best stop units in the country. They are giving up just 18.1 ppg (T-17th) and 236 yards/game (10th). Not to mention the defense is back to forcing turnovers, as they have 11 takeaways in their last 3 games, all of which have been against ACC opponents.

So much of what Boston College wants to do offensively is built around their running game and that’s not how you want to attack this athletic and fast Miami defense. We saw them only put up 85 rushing yards in that 30-13 loss to Purdue and I could see a similar type of outcome here with the Eagles offense struggling to get anything going. Note that BC’s star running back A.J. Dillion is questionable to play with a ankle injury and they really need him to play to have any shot at winning this game. Give me the Hurricanes -3.5!

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Va Tech -3) 

I'll take my chances here with Virginia Tech and lay the short number with the Hokies. I just feel the price is right to take a shot on Virginia Tech at home in a prime time game.

No question the Hokies were fortunate to get that win at North Carolina last time out, but sometimes stealing a game can really light a fire under a team. At the same time, I think that ugly win over the Tar Heels, has created the value we are getting in this matchup.

The big thing to keep in mind with the poor showing against UNC, is it came the week after the Hokies got annihilated by Notre Dame 45-23 at home. Not a big surprise to see them come out flat on the road against a Tar Heels team that had just lost by 37 to Miami in their previous game.

I think another thing that’s keeping the number down is the fact that Georgia Tech won last year’s game as an underdog. The big thing to remember about that contest, is the Yellow Jackets had to win that game to have a realistic shot at making a bowl (needed to win 2 of their final 3 and one was against Georgia). On the flip side, Virginia Tech was off a crushing loss to Miami, which ended any hopes of them defending their Coastal title.

Not only are the Hokies going to want revenge from last year’s loss to the Yellow Jackets, but I’m sure they haven’t forgot about two years ago when Georgia Tech beat them on their home field.

Another key thing to note is that both teams are off a bye. While that might seem like a non-factor with both teams getting extra time to prepare, I think it’s a big edge for the Hokies, getting those extra few days to prepare for that option offense of Georgia Tech, especially with all the young guys they got on the defensive side of the ball.

Keep in mind that Virginia Tech head coach Justin Fuente has gone 8-3 off a bye, which includes a 3-1 mark since he took over in Blacksburg. Fuente’s teams have also been great after a sluggish stretch of play, as he’s 10-2 ATS in his last 12 after his team failed to cover 3 of their last 4. Georgia Tech on the other hand is a mere 3-12 ATS under Paul Johnson when coming off an upset loss as a favorite to a conference opponent. Give me the Hokies -3! 

50* NCAAF BIG 12 'ATS' PLAY OF THE MONTH (Baylor +14) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Baylor as a two touchdown dog. I just think the perception here is that the Mountaineers are going to bounce back from that ugly loss to Iowa State. I'm not saying they won't win the game at home, but I think they are still way overpriced due to the fact that they are 5-1 and still ranked No. 13 in the country.

I just don't think West Virginia is the 13th best team in the county and won't be the least bit surprised when they finish the season out of the Top 25. Will Grier is a great quarterback and will likely be playing on Sunday's but the Mountaineers team as a whole is nothing to get excited about. Their best win is a road victory at Texas Tech, where they were fortunate to jump out to a 28-7 lead, as they were outscored 27-14 over the final 3 quarters.

As for Baylor, I think the Bears remain undervalued, despite the fact that they are one of the most improved teams in the country. Baylor went just 1-11 last season with their only win coming against Kansas. They already have 4 wins in 2018 and just gave Texas all they could handle on the road. They did lost by 33 at Oklahoma, but note that they were down just 12-points in the 3rd quarter of that game and were only outgained by 114 yards (had 33 first downs to Sooners 22).

The big thing here for me, is I think this Baylor offense is going to be able to move the football against this West Virginia defense. The Bears might have a more defensive-minded head coach in Matt Rhule, but they are still a very good offensive team. Baylor comes into this game ranked 18th in the country, averaging 475 ypg, behind the nation's 12th ranked passing attack.

The only two decent offenses the Mountaineers have faced all season are Texas Tech and Iowa State and they struggled big time in both. West Virginia gave up 463 yards and 34 points to the Red Raiders and 498 yards and 30 points to the Cyclones. Don't be fooled by the fact that the Mountaineers come in only giving up 20.5 ppg and 360 ypg.

Another thing to note is how West Virginia has struggled in similar spots as this one under head coach Dana Holgorsen. The Mountaineers are 5-15 ATS in their 20 games under Holgorsen off a bye, 5-13 in their last 18 off a loss by 10 or more and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after getting outgained by 225 or more total yards. As for Rhule, he's 16-4 ATS as a head coach against teams outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game and 21-9 ATS in the 30 games where he's faced a team with a winning record. Give me Bears +14! 

40* TUESDAY NIGHT SUN BELT ATS ANNIHILATOR (S. Alabama +13) 

I'll take my chances here with the Jaguars as a near two-touchdown home dog. I just think we are seeing Troy getting way too much love here after how poorly they played in the first game without starting quarterback Kaleb Barker, who tore his ACL in the Trojans win over Georgia State.

Backup Sawyer Smith was just 13 of 25 for 135 yards in the loss to Liberty and that’s a Liberty team that is currently ranked 120th in the country, giving up 488.4 ypg. The fact that Troy could only muster 293 yards against that defense really says a lot about how much they miss Barker.

I think the loss of Barker not only gives South Alabama a good shot at keeping this within the number, but makes them a live home dog. The thing to keep in mind with the Jaguars 2-5 start is they have played a pretty tough schedule. Four of their five losses have come on the road. One was against Oklahoma State, one was against Memphis and the other two against arguably the two best teams in the Sun Belt in Appalachian State and Georgia Southern. The only home loss was to Louisiana Tech and they lost by just 4 as an 11-point underdog.

I’m also not so sure Troy is as good as people think, as they have played a very favorable schedule to this point. The Trojans have a win at Nebraska (without Adrian Martinez), but the Cornhuskers were a complete mess to start the year. The only other decent team they played was Boise State at home and they lost by 36.

Troy comes in averaging 33.7 ppg, but have actually underachieved, as their opponents on average are giving up 36.8 ppg. The 207 rushing  ypg and 5.6 yards/carry look great, but’s that’s basically on par with what their opponents are allowing.

You also have to factor in just how well South Alabama has played against Troy in recent meetings. They have won 3 of the last 4 in the series and covered 3 straight as an underdog. The Jaguars clearly put quite a bit into playing well against their in-state rivals and I expect nothing to change this time around.

Note that South Alabama has covered 4 straight at home against a team with a winning record and are 3-0-1 in their last 4 at home. Give me the Jaguars +13!

50* NCAAF PRE-BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR (Kentucky -12.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Kentucky covering at home against Vanderbilt. I just don't think line is anywhere close to enough for this matchup. I don't having their perfect 5-0 start snapped in an overtime loss at Texas A&M is going keep this Wildcats team from returning right to the form that saw them open up 5-0 with a win at Florida and home wins over Mississippi State and South Carolina. They beat all 3 of those teams by double-digits. They could barely move the football against Texas A&M and still had a legit shot at winning the game. I had the Aggies in that game, as I just didn't know how Kentucky was going to be able to move the ball with how much they rely on the run and how good Texas A&M is at stopping it. Not to mention how hard it is to play at Texas A&M under the lights on Saturday night. Now it's Kentucky under the lights at home against a Vandy team that had Florida on the ropes and proceeded to get outscored 34-3. I just think they caught Florida sleepwalking through the start of that game. This team lost by 28 at Georgia and 23 at home to South Carolina. I think  motivated Kentucky team, coming off a bye will be too much for the Commodores to handle. Give me the Wildcats -12.5! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Clemson -16.5) 

I got no problems following trends with proven results and this play falls into one that hasn't lost in two decades. Favorites of two touchdowns or more against an undefeated team of 5-0 or better are perfect 8-0 ATS going back to 1994. I'll gladly take my chances here with Clemson making it 9-0. This Tigers team hasn't played anywhere close to their full potential early on. I think they are close and their 63-3 win on the road against Wake Forest was as impressive as it gets. They outgained the Demon Deacons 698 to 249. I know NC State has played Clemson close the last two times, but I just don't this Wolfpack team is anywhere close to as good as they were in those matches. Their best wins are home victories against Virginia and Boston College and they only beat the Eagles by 5. They haven't seen anything close to an offense as talented as Clemson and I got a feeling after that Wake Forest game, this Tigers defense is fed up with people saying they are underachieving and will be out to make a statement. Give me Clemson -16.5! 

50* NCAAF UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE MONTH (Colorado +17.5) 

I'l take my chances here with Colorado as a 3-score underdog against the Huskies. I just feel Washington is going to have a really tough time bouncing back from that crushing overtime loss to Oregon. The Huskies had their chances to seal the win in regulation. They passed up on a field goal to take a 3-point lead, going for it and failing to covert on 4th & 1 from the Oregon 26 early in the 4th quarter. After the defense forced Oregon to punt, Washington again drove it into Ducks territory, only this time to miss a short 37-yard field goal as time expired.

Another thing to keep in mind with Colorado’s poor offensive showing against USC, is the Buffaloes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after a game where they had 275 or fewer total yards. I think the books have once again undervalued this team in this spot. Give me the Buffaloes +17.5!