9* NCAAF - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Minnesota Golden Gophers -6

The simple fact that we have an unranked Minnesota team favored on the road against No. 24 Illinois should be enough to have you strongly considering backing the Gophers. It would be one thing for Minnesota to be a 2-3 point favorite, but pushing a TD makes this one of the more head-scratching lines on the board this Saturday. 

This tells me the books not only think the Gophers win this game, but they are pretty confident it isn't going to be close. I'm with them. I've made a ton of money backing Illinois this year, but this is a really tough spot for the Illini. 

Not only are they coming off two huge wins, they are dealing with a ton of injuries. It's unlikely starting quarterback Tommy DeVito will be back for this game and there's a pretty noticeable drop off from him and backup Artur Sitkowski. They also figure to be missing wideout Isaiah Williams, whose 38 receptions are 16 more than the next best guy. 

With the gas tank on empty and down some really big pieces, I think this has the potential to be ugly. Minnesota is going to be a pissed off bunch coming into this game. Not only are the Gophers coming off a bye, the last time they played was that ugly 10-20 loss at home to Purdue. I don't think it was a fun two weeks of practice for this team, which I still think has the potential to be the best team in the Big Ten West. 

They also will not be overlooking this Illinois team after last year's 6-14 loss at home to the Illini as a 14.5-point favorite. 

It's also worth noting that Minnesota didn't have star running back Mohamed Ibrahim for that game against Purdue. He's expected to be back for this matchup. 

I just think with how hard it's going to be for Illinois to put up points, it's really not asking a lot of the Gophers to win here by at least a touchdown. Give me Minnesota -6! 

10* NCAAF Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH: Penn State Nittany Lions +7

I love the value here with No. 10 Penn State catching a full 7-points on the road against No. 5 Michigan. I'm shocked this line isn't closer to a field goal. Both of these teams are undefeated. Nittany Lions are 5-0 and the Wolverines are 6-0. 

I'm not saying Michigan isn't a really good team, I just don't think they are as good as the team from last year that won the Big Ten and made the playoffs. That team had to rally from behind in the final minutes of the 4th quarter to beat Penn State 21-17 last year. 

Wolverines couldn't have played an easier non-conference schedule with games against Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn. They have since gone 3-0 in Big Ten play, but only got by Maryland by 7 at home. They beat Iowa 27-14 on the road, but that's a Hawkeyes team that is historically bad offensively. Last week they beat Indiana 31-10, but that was a 10-10 game midway thru the 3rd quarter. 

Penn State was every bit as impressive as Michigan in non-conference, beating Ohio 46-10, Central Michigan 33-14 and going on the road and beating Auburn 41-12. They also won 35-31 at Purdue, who I think is better than all 3 of the Big Ten teams Michigan has played thus far. 

The Nittany Lions did just squeak by Northwestern 17-7 as a 25-point favorite last time out, but that was played in awful conditions and the offense turned it over 5 times. It was also two weeks ago. Penn State had a bye last week, giving them two full weeks to prepare for this game. 

I give the Nittany Lions a real shot at winning this game, but at the very least I think this a one score game in the 4th quarter. Give me Penn State +7! 

10* NCAAF Sun Belt PLAY OF THE MONTH: UL-Lafayette +10.5

I love the 10.5 with Lafayette in Wednesday's stand alone college football matchup. This being the only football game on the board, the books know this will be a heavily bet game. They also know the public will likely be looking to back Marshall, as that's a team the public remembers going on the road and beating then No. then No. 8 Notre Dame 26-21 as a 20.5-point dog. As a result I think we are seeing the Herd way overpriced in this matchup. 

Louisiana-Lafayette is just 2-3 and comes into this game having lost 3 in a row. However, they are far from a pushover. You could make a case that the Ragin-Cajuns' are a few plays away from being 5-0. They trailed Rice 14-19 going into the 4th quarter, led 17-7 in a 17-21 loss at ULM and lost on a last second field goal to South Alabama. 

They come into this game last in the Sun Belt West at 0-2 in league play. They have to be feeling like their season is on the line in this game. Hard to not like an underrated dog that feels like it's back against the wall. 

I'm also don't think Marshall is as good as what people think. Yes, the win over Notre Dame was impressive, but given what we have seen out of both the Irish and the Herd since that game, you got to think Notre Dame coming off that gut-wrenching loss to Ohio State in Week 1 had a little something to do with how that game played out. If this team was that good, they wouldn't have followed that game up with a 31-34 loss at Bowling Green (favored by 17) and a 7-16 loss to Troy, where they didn't go over 100 yards passing or rushing in the game. 

Let's also not ignore that upset of Notre Dame is their only win over another FBS team. Their other two wins are against Norfolk State and Gardner Webb. 

It's also worth pointing out that Marshall's style of play isn't really built to blow teams out. They are a run-first offense and are very sound defensively. The fewer the possessions the more valuable the 10.5 points become. Turnovers could also be huge in this game. Ragin Cajuns' have forced at least 2 takeaways in all 5 of their games. Give me Lafayette +10.5! 

10* NCAAF Big Ten PLAY OF THE YEAR: Illinois Fighting Illini -3

I love Illinois as a mere 3-point home favorite against Iowa. Illinois is a team I was extremely high on coming into this season. They were way better than expected in 2021, which was the first under current head coach Brett Bielema. They got a lot of key pieces back from that team and made a huge upgrade at quarterback with Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito. It was really all this team was missing, as they had a solid rushing attack and very underrated defense (allowed just 21.9 ppg last year) last year. 

Illinois has started out the 2022 season 4-1 and really should be 5-0. They couldn't have played much worse in a 20-23 loss at Indiana, yet still it took a 12-play 75-yard TD drive with less than a minute to play for the Hoosiers to win that game. They made a real statement last week, going on the road and beating Wisconsin 34-10. 

The biggest thing for me is that for as good as Iowa is defensively, they are even worse offensively. I don't know where the offense is going to come from for the Hawkeyes against this Illinois defense, which comes in allowing 8.4 ppg, 235 ypg and 3.9 yards/play. 

Keep in mind in Iowa's 27-10 win at Rutgers a couple weeks back, they were actually outgained 361-277 by the Scarlet Knights. If not for 2 defensive TDs, they very well may have lost that game outright. I also think it's a bit of a letdown spot for Iowa, who just played a Top 5 team at home, which also happened to be the same team they lost to in last year's Big Ten title game. Give me Illinois -3! 

8* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS Blowout: Washington Huskies -13.5

I got no problem laying 13.5-points on the road with Washington against Arizona State. I know this is a bit of a square play, but I just don't think the number here is near enough for the Sun Devils to cover. 

Arizona State is 1-4 to start the year with their only win coming at home against a FCS opponent in Northern Arizona. They do have a trio of losses against teams that are currently ranked in the Top 15 in Oklahoma State, Utah and USC. Thing is, they weren't competitive in any of those games. They were outgained 465-354 by the Cowboys, 465-267 by Utah (was 34-6 with less than 5 minutes to play) and 485-331 by USC. 

I just don't know how the Sun Devils are going to generate enough offense to keep this under a 14 point margin. On one side you have a Washington offense that is one of the best in the country. The offense wasn't at fault in their loss at UCLA last week. Huskies are scoring 41.6 ppg and averaging 507 ypg vs teams who on average are allowing 28.8 ppg and giving up just 413 ypg. 

Just to compare that with Arizona State's offense, the Sun Devils are scoring 23.2 ppg and putting up 345 ypg vs teams that are allowing 26.1 ppg and 373 ypg. Homefield is not a big deal in this one, as I think most of the Arizona State fans have given up on this team. I like a motivated Huskies team coming off their first loss to make a statement in this one. Give me Washington -13.5! 

9* NCAAF Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Texas Tech Red Raiders +9.5

I really think we are getting some big time value with Texas Tech as a 9.5-point road dog against Oklahoma State. I think it's worth noting that I cashed a 10* Top Play last week with the Cowboys as a 2.5-point road dog at Baylor.

The biggest reason I liked that play was the revenge angle for Oklahoma State after getting upset in the Big 12 title game last year by the Bears. The thing is, prior to that game I think people were a little hesitant on the Cowboys and how good they were given their easy schedule to start the year. 

I believe that validation now has them way overpriced against a Texas Tech team that I've really been impressed with this year. The Red Raiders are 3-2, despite having played 4 ranked teams in 5 games. Their two losses were a 14-27 loss at NC State, where they outgained the Wolfpack 353 to 270. The other loss was a 28-37 loss at K-State, where they outgained the Wildcats 473-459. 

Turnovers absolutely killed them in both of those games, as they turned it over 4 times in each loss. That's definitely a concern going into this game, but they are facing an Oklahoma State defense that despite a soft schedule has only forced 4 turnovers total in 4 games. 

I also think the Oklahoma State defense is not anything close to the defense that carried this team to the Big 12 title game last year. The Cowboys are giving up just 23.3 ppg, but that's come against teams who on the season are averaging just 23.9 ppg. They are allowed 397 ypg vs teams that total just 356 ypg. 

They face a Texas Tech offense that is scoring 35.0 ppg and averaging 476 ypg vs teams that only give up 27.2 ppg and 394 ypg. 

I also think there has to be a bit of a letdown concern here for Oklahoma State. I can't underestimate how big that game was to them against Baylor and they got what could be a massive road game on deck against undefeated and currently No. 17 ranked TCU. It would not surprise me at all if Texas Tech won this game. Give me the Red Raiders +9.5! 

9* NCAAF - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Purdue Boilermakers +3.5

I will take my chances with Purdue as a 3.5-point road dog against Maryland on Saturday. I just think it's time to sell high on the Terps. Maryland has started the season 4-1 and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games. I think a lot of people verify this start because Maryland went on the road and competed for 60 minutes in a 27-34 loss to Michigan. I get the Wolverines are ranked No. 4 in the country, but I'm not so sure they as good as people think. Michigan couldn't have started with an easier schedule in their first 3 games and while they got the win and cover last week at Iowa, they didn't dominate like you would expect. 

Maryland's two best wins are against SMU by 7 and by 14 at home to a down bad Michigan State team. One of the biggest things that gets overlooked with last week game against the Spartans is the Terps only managed to score 6 points in the 2nd against a Michigan State defense that can't defend the pass. 

As for Purdue, the Boilermakers are a couple of plays away from being 5-0 and at the very least ranked in the Top 15. Purdue lost 31-35 at home to Penn State in their opener, giving up a game-winning TD with less than a minute to play. Outgained the Nittany Lions 426-406. They also 29-32 at Syracuse, where the Orange scored a game-winning TD from 25-yards out with just 7 seconds to play. Last week Purdue reminded everyone how good they are by going into Minnesota and beating the Gophers 20-10 as a 8.5-point dog. 

I like the Boilermakers to do the same and win this game outright, but I also think that if Maryland were to win this game, it won't be via a blowout, which makes the 3.5 so valuable. Give me Purdue +3.5! 

9* NCAAF Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Indiana Hoosiers +23

I'm going to roll the dice with Indiana as a 23-point home dog against the Wolverines. I'm just not convinced Michigan is as good as people think. The Wolverines couldn't have played an easier 3-game start to their season with Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn on their schedule. They only won by 7 at home against Maryland as a 17-point favorite in their first real test of the season. While they did win and cover at Iowa last week as a 10-point favorite, they did not dominate that game like you would expect given the Hawkeyes horrific offense. 

I'm not saying they aren't going to beat Indiana on the road, I just don't think they are going to run away with this thing like the line suggests. The Hoosiers to be are still being viewed like the team that went just 2-10. Indiana is a much improved team this year. They are 3-2 with their only two losses coming on the road at Cincinnati and Nebraska. 

They are scoring 27.2 ppg, which is nearly a full 10 points more than they averaged last year (17.3 ppg). The defense is also been decent, giving up just 30.4 ppg vs teams averaging 32.8 ppg. 

This to me is also a bit of a flat spot for Michigan, who has be feeling pretty about themselves after that big road win at Iowa. Could have a hard time not looking ahead to next week's big home against an undefeated Penn State team that is ranked #10. Give me Indiana +23! 

8* NCAAF - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Texas Longhorns -7

I'm going to lay the 7 points with Texas in their annual matchup with Oklahoma, as the two teams face off at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas early Saturday. Even though the Sooners come in having just lost 34-41 at home to K-State and 24-55 at TCU, I still think the public looks at this line and gravitates towards a full touchdown with Oklahoma. 

I see it the opposite. In fact, I think Texas should be a bigger favorite than they are and I'd be surprised if this line doesn't get bigger as we get closer to kickoff. 

One of the big reasons I think the line will move, is I don't think Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel is going to play. Gabriel is listed as questionable, but he suffered a concussion on vicious hit while taking a knee on a run. It's pretty rare we see a guy take that kind of hit to the head and play 7 days later and I think it's even less likely given all that's taken place with Tua in the NFL the last two weeks. 

I don't know that Gabriel would have kept me from playing Texas in this game, but I do think him not being on the field only increases the likelihood that the Longhorns win this game by double-digits. Backup Davis Beville was just 7 of 16 for a mere 50 yards in relief of Gabriel last week against TCU. 

Considering this Texas defense is only giving up 3.3 yards/carry, holding teams 1.2 yards/carry under their season average, I really wonder how Oklahoma will score enough to keep this game close. 

The other big thing in this game that I don't think is getting enough hype is Texas getting back starting quarterback Quinn Ewers, who has not played since going out in the Alabama game. I could be jumping the gun here and giving Ewers too much respect on a small sample size, but I firmly believe Texas would have beat the Crimson Tide had he not got hurt and would be coming into this game 4-0 and ranked in the Top 10, instead of 3-2 and not ranked at all.

I think Ewers and this Texas offense is going to go up down the field against this Oklahoma defense. In their loss to K-State, they gave up 41 points and 509 total yards. The same Wildcats offense that could only manage 10-points and 336 yards at home against Tulane the game before. Then they give up 55 points and 668 total yards to TCU and were lucky to only give up that much. The Horned Frogs had 41 points and 479 total yards at the half of that game. 

The one thing that I think could be our downfall with this play is if Texas were to overlook this game because of how bad the Sooners have looked and Gabriel not playing. I just don't think that will be the case. The Longhorns haven't won in this series since 2018 and have sufferent some tough beats the last two years. They lost 45-53 in a 4OT thriller back in 2020 and then last year lost 48-55 after leading 28-7 in the 1st quarter (outscored 25-7 in the 4th quarter). Give me Texas -7! 

8* NCAAF Wednesday Night CFB ANNIHILATOR: SMU Mustangs +3 

Give me SMU +3 on the road Wednesday Night against UCF. This game was originally suppose to be played last Saturday. They pushed it back to Sunday because of the hurricane, but decided it was best to push it back a few more days to Wednesday. 

It can be hard predicting how a team will respond to a situation like this, but I just feel like there's too much value with the Mustangs at this price to pass up a wager on SMU. 

I've really been impressed with what I've seen out of the Mustangs so far this season. They went on the road to open their season and destroyed North Texas 48-10 and followed that up with a 45-16 win over Lamar. They have lost their last two games to fall to 2-2, but the losses were a 27-34 setback at Maryland and a 34-42 loss at home to TCU. 

Nothing to be ashamed with those two losses. Maryland is currently 4-1 with their only loss being a 27-34 defeat at No. 4 Michigan. SMU was not outmatched against the Terps. In fact, they outgained Maryland 520-439 with a 30-16 edge in first downs. TCU is 4-0 and fresh off an absolute beatdown of No. 18 Oklahoma. Horned Frogs only outgained SMU 487-476 with SMU holding a 27-21 edge in first downs. 

As for UCF, they are 3-1 to start the year. They have a 56-10 win over SC State, 40-14 win over FAU and most recently a 27-10 win over Georgia Tech. The lone loss being a 14-20 defeat at home to Louisville. At the time the loss to the Cardinals wasn't viewed as a bad loss, but Louisville has really been a disappointment this year. They are just 2-3 and just lost 33-34 at BC as a 14-point favorite. 

I just don't think UCF has the offensive fire-power to go score for score with this high-powered Mustangs offense. SMU has one of the best passing attacks in the country behind junior signal caller Tanner Mordecai, who has thrown for 1,385 yards and 12 TDs. SMU as a team is averaging 38.5 ppg, 506 ypg and 6.4 yards/play. 

The thing that I feel gets overlooked with SMU is their defense. They are only giving up 25.5 ppg, despite facing two potent offenses in Maryland and TCU. 

You might be saying UCF's defense is pretty good too. The Knights are only giving up 13.5 ppg and 315 ypg. However, the only offense they have faced with a pulse is Louisville and I just haven't been that impressed with the Cardinal offense. Give me SMU +3! 

8* NCAAF - Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER: Stanford Cardinal +17

This to me is just too many points to pass up with Stanford, who is a 17-point road dog against Oregon. The Cardinal are getting absolutely no love from the books or the public right now, as they have failed to cover the spread in all 3 of their games, including ugly losses in their big step up games against USC (lost 28-41 as a 9.5-point dog) and Washington (lost 22-40 as a 14-point dog). It to me has created a great buy low spot on Stanford, who has the offensive fire-power to put up points on this Oregon defense. 

I also don't love the spot here for the Ducks. Oregon is coming into this game off a dramatic 44-41 win at Washington State. A game they trailed 15-27 going into the 4th and 22-34 with less than 5 minutes to play. The Ducks didn't take their first lead in that game until there was 1:21 left in the 4th quarter. Playing from behind like that for a full 60 minutes takes a lot out of a team. 

I think think with how everyone is calling for a blowout here by Oregon, it sets the Ducks up for a big letdown and you know Stanford is going to be up for this game given how poorly they have played their last two games and this being such a big rivalry. Give me the Cardinal +17! 

9* NCAAF Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Duke Blue Devils -2.5

I'm going to lay the 2.5 with Duke at home against Virginia. I just think this is way too good a price to pass up with the Blue Devils. Duke had started out 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS before losing and failing to cover last week in a 27-35 loss at Kansas as a 7-point dog. Even though they lost that game, I thought the Blue Devils were impressive in defeat against a much improved Kansas team. They just were able to slow down that Jayhawks offense. 

They aren't going to have that problem defensively against a bad and very overrated Cavaliers offense that gets way too much respect because they brought back a good QB in Brennan Armstrong. They just don't have the offensive line or playmakers on the outside that they had a year ago. 

They did manage to cover last week in a 20-22 loss at Syracuse as a 9.5-point dog, but were very lucky to do so. Syracuse settled for 5 field goals in that game. They had kicked 3 FGs from 32 yards or less in just the first half. They didn't find the endzone again after scoring a TD on their opening drive. 

Duke has a legit offense behind one of the best kept secrets in quarterback Riley Leonard. Thru 4 games, Leonard has completed 72 of 101 attempts (71.3%) and isn't just dinking and dunking it down the field. He's averaging 10.4 yards per attempt (T-6th) in the country. 

I just don't see this Virginia going on the road with that offensive line and being able to keep pace offensively with the Blue Devils. Give me Duke -2.5! 

9* NCAAF Smart Money ATS NO-BRAINER: Iowa State Cyclones -3

I really like Iowa State as a slim 3-point road favorite against Kansas. I've been on this Jayhawks team a decent amount here to start the season and they have really delivered, going a perfect 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS, which includes a 55-42 win on the road against West Virginia as a 14-point dog and a 48-30 win at Houston as a 8.5-point dog. 

They key here is the perception of Kansas has shifted dramatically. I believe they have come from being one of the most underrated teams to being way overvalued. 

The wins at West Virginia and Houston are impressive, but they far from dominated those games. They fell behind 7-21 to the Mountaineers before rallying and eventually winning in OT. They were outgained 511 to 419 in that win over WV. They were outgained 446 to 438 in their win over Houston. The win over Duke is nice, but even though the Blue Devils came into that game 3-0, that's not a Duke team that is any sort of threat in the ACC. 

Iowa State is the best team the Jayhawks have played and it's not even close. The Cyclones are 3-1 with their only loss coming last week in a 24-31 loss at home to Baylor. There were a few calls early in that game that really impacted the outcome of that game. 

I just look at the matchup. As good as Kansas' offense has been, there defense has been equally as bad. I don't see the Jayhawks being able to get off the field in this one. I just don't know if they can win a shootout with how good ISU is defensively. Cyclones are only giving up 14.5 ppg and 266 ypg and that's come against teams who are averaging 24.4 ppg and 350 yards/game. They are holding teams to 1.3 yards per rush under their season average (allowing 2.7 vs teams averaging 4). I like the Jayhawks to get a wakeup call in this one. Give me Iowa State -3! 

8* NCAAF Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Northwestern Wildcats +25.5

I like the 25.5 we are getting with Northwestern, as they go on the road to face No. 11 Penn State. I just feel this line has been inflated to where there's too much value with the Wildcats. No one is going to want to bet Northwestern, who has lost and failed to cover each of their last 3 games. All as favorites, two by double-digits. On the flip side, the public sees a ranked Nittany Lions team that is 4-0 and has covered 3 of the 4, with each of their last 3 wins coming in blowout fashion, including a 41-12 win at Auburn. 

All of those games for Penn State were non-confernece. Games are just played closer in conference. Let's also not ignore the fact that the Nittany Lions were extremely lucky to pull out a 35-31 win on the road at Purdue in their opener. 

I also don't think Northwestern is as bad as what people think. They outgained the Blue Devils 511 to 461 in a 23-31 loss to Duke. They outgained Southern Illinois 380 to 357 in a 24-31 defeat and outgained Miami (OH) 364 to 278 in a 14-17 loss. They got a decent QB in Ryan Hilinski and a very talented running back in Evan Hull, who has already accounted for 681 yards and 4 TDs. Give me Northwestern +25.5! 

10* NCAAF - Big Money PLAY OF THE MONTH: Oklahoma State Cowboys +2.5

I will gladly take the 2.5-points with No. 9 Oklahoma State on the road against No. 16 Baylor. I really like the price and the spot here with the Cowboys. This is without a doubt a game Oklahoma State had circled when the schedule was announced. The last time these two teams played was last year's Big 12 title game, which saw the Bears upset the Cowboys 21-16 as a 7-point dog. 

It's also a game that Oklahoma State has had two weeks to prepare for after a bye last week. That's a big advantage here, especially with Baylor coming off a huge road win at Iowa State last week. 

I also feel like even though the Cowboys are ranked in the Top 10, this is a team that is being undervalued right now. The only game they haven't covered is their 58-44 Week 1 win over Central Michigan as a 20.5-point favorite. They may have not covered, but they led 51-15 early in the 3rd quarter and called off the dogs, getting outscored 29-7 the rest of the way. That end to that game also greatly skewed the defensive numbers for this Oklahoma State defense. 

The other big thing I think getting overlooked with the Cowboys and maybe the biggest reason I think they are underrated is the improvement we have seen out of starting quarterback Spencer Sanders. He's completed 65.3% of his attempts with a 9.6 average. Both career highs. He's also got a 10-1 TD-INT ratio. His career high for a season in TD passes is 20. He's also rushed for over 100 yards and 3 scores. 

I just think the Cowboys are the better team on both sides of the ball and should be the favorites in this matchup. Keep in mind this line suggest that if this game was played on a neutral field the line would be around Oklahoma State -1 to -2. Give me the Cowboys +2.5!  

8* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: North Carolina Tar Heels -9

I just can't help myself here but to lay the 9-points at home with North Carolina against Virginia Tech. I think it's a great spot here to jump on the Tar Heels after last week's 32-45 home loss to Notre Dame, where everyone was calling for UNC to win that game. 

I'm also looking to fade this Virginia Tech team right now. I couldn't believe West Virginia (had a 10* play on Mountaineers) was only a 2-point road favorite against the Hokies last week. Mountaineers won that game 33-10, outgaining Va Tech 421 to 228. 

This is a really bad Hokies offense. They are scoring just 20.3 ppg and averaging 332 ypg against opponents who are giving up 26.6 ppg and 401 ypg. It's why I'm not overly concerned here with the struggles that UNC has defensively. This is also a Hokies offense that can't run the ball and could really be handcuffed if weather plays a role at all in this one. 

I don't think the Hokies defense is bad, but their numbers are without a doubt aided by the fact that they played 3 bad offensive team in their first 3 games in ODU, BC and Wofford. They are allowing just 85 ypg and 2.6 yards/carry on the ground, yet gave up 218 yards rushing to W Virginia. 

UNC comes in avarging 46.5 ppg, 502 ypg and 7.3 yards play. That's against teams who are allowing just 38.1 ppg, 447 ypg and 6.4 yards/play. They are averaging 194 yards and 5.3 yards/carry on the ground and putting up 308 ypg in the air. I think they easily get to 35 and I just don't see the Hokies getting into the mid 20s on the road. Give me North Carolina -9! 

10* NCAAF - Situational PLAY OF THE MONTH: Michigan State Spartans +8.5

I've taken it on the chin with Michigan State the last two weeks in ugly losses. First it was a 28-39 loss at Washington as a 3.5-point dog and then a 7-34 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point dog. Much like I did with the Huskies, I didn't give that Minnesota the respect they deserved. I

I'm confident I'm not making that same mistake here with Maryland, especially at this price. The Terps caught the eye of a lot of people last week, as they only lost 27-34 as a 17-point road dog at No. 4 Michigan. 

I just think some of them keeping that game close had to due with Michigan maybe being a little overconfident and untested after 3 cupcake games to start the season. Let's also not ignore the fact that Michigan led 34-19 in that game in the 4th quarter before Maryland scored a late TD in garbage time to make it appear closer. 

Another big thing here is the health of Terps' starting quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, who suffered a rib injury in the loss to Michigan. He did return after leaving that game, but clearly this family has a mindset of playing even when they are hurt after watching what's went down with his brother Tua the last couple of weeks. He's a game-time decision as of right now. 

So is leading wide out Rakim Jarrett, who is off to a great start after leading the team in receiving last year. 

I do have some concerns with the Michigan State secondary, but I just feel that a lot of their struggles the last couple of weeks were playing two of the better teams in the country in Washington and Minnesota. This also has to feel like a must-win for the Spartans, who after this play at home against Ohio State and Wisconsin before going on the road to face in-state rival Michigan. Give me the Spartans +8.5! 

8* NCAAF Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Kansa State Wildcats +13

My money is on Kansas State to cover as a 13-point road dog against Oklahoma. I think we got a perfect recipe for line value with last week's results for these two teams. On one side you had Kansas State lose 10-17 at home to Tulane as a 13-point favorite, while Oklahoma went on the road and embarrassed Nebraska 49-14 as a mere 10.5-point favorite. 

Anyone that was taking a wait and see approach with Oklahoma after losing head coach Lincoln Riley is now going to be sold that this Sooners team is going to run the table and fight for a playoff spot. I just don't think that's the case. Sure, I thought Nebraska would put up more of a fight in the first game after Scott Frost was fired, but that's not a surprising result to me. 

Maybe I'm wrong and Brent Venables is going to be this great new head coach, but I still think Oklahoma is not on the same level as they were with Riley calling the shots. 

One thing is for sure, that offense of there's will be facing a defense with any kind of a pulse for the first time this year. Kansas State is miles ahead of any team the Sooners have faced on the defensive side of the ball. 

I also think you have to ask yourself how much of the spot played into K-State's poor showing against Tulane. The Wildcats were fresh off a 40-12 win against Missouri against rival Missouri as a 7-point favorite. A game some thought they were to struggle to win. Then they had this massive game against Oklahoma looming on deck. I think it had a big impact. 

I also think you got to look at the track record in this series. K-State has won 2 of the last 3 meetings. One as a 23.5-point dog and the other as a 28-point dog. Two of their last 3 losses to Oklahoma have come by 7 or less and they are responsible for 3 of Oklahoma 6 losses at home in Big 12 play since 2012. Would it really shock you if they won this game outright. Not me. Give me the Wildcats +13! 

8* NCAAF Prime Time ATS SLAUGHTER: Wisconsin Badgers +19

I will take Wisconsin as a 19-point road dog against Ohio State. Nobody is giving the Badgers any shot in this game and I just feel like the line has gotten out of control. I get the Buckeyes came into this season as a consensus playoff pick and they have looked the part in their last two games against Arkansas State (45-12) and Toledo (77-21), but it's like everyone has just completely blocked out their opener against Notre Dame. A game they only won 21-10 as a similarly priced 17-point favorite. 

Wisconsin is a heck of a lot better team than Notre Dame. That's just not the perception people have. A big reason for that is the Badgers shocking 14-17 home loss to Washington State. Yes, they lost, but they were the better team. Wisconsin outgained the Cougars 401 to 253 with a 22-10 edge in first downs. 

I just think if Notre Dame's defense can give this Ohio State offense fits, there's no reason to think the Badgers' defense can't do the same. 

All Ohio State is going to hear going into this game is how good they are and how Wisconsin doesn't have the offense to compete. They kind of mindset is how upsets happen. The Badgers will not only being playing with a chip on their shoulder, but they got nothing to lose here. I could be dead wrong here, but at this price and how big the public is on Ohio State, I got to take the points. Give me the Badgers +19! 

9* NCAAF Sharp Money ATS KNOCKOUT: UConn Huskies +39

Yes, I'm taking the 39-points with UConn on the road against NC State. The same UConn team that has lost 14-48 at home to Syracuse (24-pt dog) and 0-59 at Michigan (47.5 pt dog) in their last two games. 

Most will just assume that with NC State sitting there ranked No. 12 in the country, they are just going to be able to name their score in this one. I just don't think that's going to be the case. Wolfpack are 3-0, but they have not impressed me in their two biggest games. They beat ECU 21-20 and the Pirates missed an extra point late, as well as a 42-yard field goal in the final seconds. They did just beat Texas Tech 27-14, were outgained 353-270 by the Red-Raiders. 

The other big factor here is the spot. NC State has their biggest game on their schedule looming next week at Clemson. A game that they probably have to win to have a legit shot at winning the ACC Atlantic. 

They aren't going to be out for style points in this game. Their primary focus is to win and keep everyone healthy. So even if they get up early, it's going to be extremely hard for them to win by 40+ with all their backups playing the entire 2nd half. Give me UConn +39! 

9* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Northern Illinois Huskies +26.5

I really like Northern Illinois to cover as a 26.5-point dog against Kentucky. To me this line doesn't make a lot of sense. In the Wildcats season opener they were a mere 15-point home favorite against Miami (OH). Northern Illinois and Miami (OH) both play in the MAC and the Huskies are the defending MAC champs with 18 returning starters. This line suggest that Northern Illinois would be a double-digit dog on a neutral to Miami (OH). No chance. 

It's also worth noting that while Kentucky won and covered against the RedHawks in a 37-13 win. They needed a last second field goal to go into the half with a 13-10 lead. They then flipped the script with a 100-yard kick return to open the 2nd half. They only outgained Miami (OH) by 63 yards. 

For them to win by 27 or more you would think they need to outgain Northern Illinois by 250+ yards. I just don't see that happening. Northern Illinois is going to fight. There's not many bigger stages for them than playing a Top 10 ranked opponent. 

I'm just not a believer that Kentucky is a Top 10 team and I think this is a bit of a tricky spot for them with a huge game on deck next week at No. 16 Ole Miss. Even if they get up big, they are going to pull their guys and go into conservative mode, which will leave the backdoor wide open. Give me Northern Illinois +26.5! 

10* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH: Arkansas Razorbacks +2.5

I love the Razorbacks as a 2.5-point dog in their neutral site showdown with the Aggies. For those that don't know, the game is being played at AT&T Stadium (home of the Cowboys). Sure Texas A&M was able to win and cover last week in their huge game against Miami, winning 17-9 as a 6.5-point favorite. They were lucky to do so, as they were outgained 392 to 264. 

There was hope that a switch to QB Max Johnson would spark the offense. It didn't It looked like the exact same offense that let them down in their upset loss at home to App State. If that wasn't a prime time night game under the lights, where that Texas A&M crowd is out of control, I don't know if they beat the Hurricanes. 

They aren't going to have that kind of crowd impact at AT&T Stadium and are playing their toughest challenge to date in Arkansas. I don't know what it is about the Razorbacks, but they just keep staying under the radar. They are now 8-1 in their last 9 games and their only loss was by a mere 7-points at Alabama. They got the best quarterback nobody talks about in KJ Jefferson, who is off to a great start. 

The gap in talent at the quarterback position alone in this game is enough that should have Arkansas favored. I just don't see the Aggies being able to do enough offensively to win this game and say what you want about Alabama looming on the schedule next week for the Razorbacks. They are not looking past this game. Give me Arkansas +2.5! 

9* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Arizona Wildcats +3

I will gladly take 3-points on the road with Arizona at Cal. I'm 1-1 on the Wildcats this year. I won with them in their 38-20 win at San Diego State as a 6.5-point dog. I lost with them in a 17-39 loss at home to Mississippi State as a 10.5-point dog. Looking back I just got a little too greedy with Arizona. Their a team I'm so high on this year and even though they are improved, they aren't quite ready to compete with the big boys. 

Cal is certainly not a big boy. The Golden Bears are 2-1. They were far from impressive in home wins over UC Davis and UNLV to start the year. They did however cover as a 13.5-point dog in a 17-24 loss at Notre Dame last week. 

It's a big deal going on the road and facing the Irish in South Bend. That was easily the biggest game on the schedule for Cal in the first half of their season. Regardless of how that game went, it was going to be tough for the Golden Bears to bounce back with a top tier effort in this game. I think it's even less likely after losing the way they did (led 17-14 going into the 4th). 

There's just nothing I've seen so far that makes me think in differently on Cal, who I didn't think was going to be very good. Golden Bears only returned 8 starters from a team that went 5-7 last year. 

As for Arizona, they were a team I thought was poised to make a massive jump in 2022. Not only were they figuring to be improved in year two under head coach Jedd Fisch, but they brought in a ton of talent via the transfer portal, including nabbing last year's Pac-12 leading passer in quarterback Jayden De Laura. Simply put I think they are the better team and should be favored in this one. Give me Arizona +3! 

8* NCAAF Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: San Diego State Aztecs +3

I will gladly take the 3-points with San Diego State at home against Toledo. I think this is the perfect spot and price to buy-low on the Aztecs. San Diego State has not been impressive to start the year. They are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS. They lost 20-38 as a 6-point favorite at home to Arizona in their opener, beat Idaho State 38-7 as a 32.5-point favorite and then got annihilated 35-7 at Utah as a 22-point dog. 

Thing a lot of people don't realize is they really haven't lost a game they should have won. Yes, they were a favorite against Arizona in their opener, but that Wildcats team was being way undervalued coming into this season. Arizona is easily one of the more improved teams in the country. As for the loss to Utah, what did you really expect. That's a Utes team that a lot of people picked to make the playoffs. 

One thing to note about the poor offensive showing against Utah is they lost starting quarterback Braxton Burmeister in the 1st quarter. (poked in the eye) He didn't return, but head coach Brady Hoke has said he's going to be ready to go for Saturday. 

I just think that given how bad SDSU has looked and Toledo being one of the favorites to win the MAC has the wrong team favored. The Rockets might be the class of the MAC, but the MAC is also the worst conference in the FBS. 

The other huge factor for me is the spot. Toledo's biggest game on their schedule was last week at in-state big brother Ohio State (who they rarely get to play). So even though they got annihilated 71-21, it will be tough for them to bring that same level of energy to this game. Not only that, but keep in mind they are now back on the road and forced to go way out west against a hungry San Diego State. Last time the Rockies traveled to California for a regular-season game was 2018 against Fresno State. A game they lost 27-49 as a 9-point dog. Give me San Diego State +3! 

9* NCAAF Smart Money CASH COW: James Madison Dukes +7

I will once again fade Appalachian State and grab the 7-points with James Madison. Last week we backed Troy at +12.5 and the Trojans nearly won outright, losing on a hail mary in the final seconds. 

I faded App State in that game because of the emotional rollercoaster they had been on to start the year. First they lose 61-63 to UNC, scoring 40 points in the 4th quarter to nearly erase a 20-point 4th quarter deficit (missed 2-pt conversion with 9 seconds left). Then they pulled off a massive upset, beating Texas A&M 17-14 on the road. 

I just don't see them having anything left in the tank for this game and they are up against a very talented Dukes team. For those that don't know James Madison made the jump from FCS to the FBS this year. The assumption most have when this happen is they are going to struggle that first year after making the jump. 

I don't think that's the case at all. The Dukes are coming off a 12-2 season in 2021 and have won 9 or more games in 7 of the last 8 seasons. In their opener against Middle Tennessee they beat the Blue Raiders 44-7 as a 5-point favorite, outgaining them 548 to 119 in the process. They then destroyed Norfolk State 63-7. Very similar type of dominating performance to Marshall in their 55-3 win over Norfolk State. 

The other massive factor in this game is the fact that James Madison is coming off a bye week, which means they not only are going to have fresh legs, but have had two full weeks to prepare for this game. A game you know they had circled with how many people had App State picked to win the conference. The Dukes will be out to make a statement that they belong. I give them a real shot here to win this game outright. Give me the James Madison +7. 

10* NCAAF - Big 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH: Texas Tech Red Raiders +7

I absolutely love getting Texas Tech as a 7-point home dog against Texas. The Longhorns to be are being way overvalued right now. Texas is a public team and any time this team shows they might be back, everyone is so quick to jump on the bandwagon. Their 19-20 loss to Alabama completely flipped the script on the perception of this team. 

Unfortunately for Texas they lost starting quarterback Quinn Ewers, who looked like a real difference maker for this team. No disrespect to backup Hudson Card, but he's a big down grade. Card has attempted 14 more passes (8 more completions) than Ewers and still trail him in yards. I believe it makes them more one-dimensional with the run game. 

They wound up covering as a 13-point favorite with Card under center last week against UTSA, winning 41-20. However, they far from dominated that game. They only outgained the Roadrunners 459-408 and had just 21 first downs to UTSA's 29. 

I just think them winning and covering and then Texas Tech failing to cover as a 10.5-point dog in a 14-27 loss at NC State has created some line value here. Keep in mind the public was all over the Red Raiders as a double-digit dog against NC State. 

The key here is the public only cares about the final result. Texas Tech lost them money. Thing is, they probably shouldn't have. Red Raiders outgained NC State 353 to 270. I've really liked what I've seen out of this team in year one under head coach Joey McGuire. I also loved both their coordinator hires, bringing in Zach Kittley on offense and Tim DeRuyter on defense. 

I also see a very motivated Texas Tech team coming into this game after last year's embarrassing 35-70 loss to Texas, where they trailed 14-42 at the half and 28-63 after 3 quarters. While it's not a night game in Lubbock, Jones AT&T Stadium will be rocking for this game. There's not a game on the schedule the Red Raiders want more than this one and they haven't won in this series since 2017 (only 4 wins since 1999). I think this team is not only capable of making a game of it with Card at quarterback, I think they got a legit shot here to win outright. Give me Texas Tech +7! 

10* NCAAF - Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH: Michigan State Spartans +3

I love Michigan State as a 3-point home dog against Minnesota. I took it on the chin last week with the Spartans as a 3.5-point dog at Washington. I undervalued the Huskies, especially quarterback Michael Penix. I also gave way to much respect to the Michigan State secondary. I thought it was more improved than it was. 

The good news is that loss has created a good buy low spot with the Spartans. No way should they be a home dog to the Gophers. Minnesota is off to a 3-0 start. Not only have they won all 3 games they have played, they have covered the number. They covered with ease last week as a 28-point favorite against Colorado, winning by a final of 49-7. 

That's not a very good Buffaloes team. Colorado has lost 13-38 at home to TCU and 10-41 at Air Force in their other two games. Minnesota's other two wins are against New Mexico State and Western Illinois. 

I'm not saying the Gophers aren't a good team. I just think they are way overvalued right now and I think it's a bad matchup for them. 

The inability to stop top tier quarterbacks was the downfall of Michigan State in 2021. Clearly it's still a problem. What they haven't struggled to stop is the run. They are allowing just 90 ypg and 2.7 yards/carry. 

The Gophers' Tanner Morgan is a quality quarterback at the college level, but he's not going to carry this team with his arm. Minnesota's offense is built on their running game. They have ran it 50+ times in each of their first 3 games. They will also be handcuffed in the passing game going forward after losing wide out, Chris Autman-Bell to a season-ending injury. Autman-Bell led the team in catches (11), yards (214) and yards/catch (19.5). 

Minnesota's defense looks all world thru 3 games, giving up just 5.7 ppg and 170 ypg, but note the 3 teams they play combine to only average 9.3 ppg and 226 ypg. Gophers haven't even sniffed an offense as good as Michigan State. The defense will be solid, but not this good. They lost a ton up front from last year. I look for the Spartans to be able get the ground game going and pick up some big plays thru the air. Give me Michigan State +3! 

9* NCAAF Thursday Night VEGAS INSIDER: W Virginia Mountaineers -1

I'm taking West Virginia to cover as a slim 1 point road favorite against Virginia Tech. Even though the Mountaineers come into this game off a 65-7 blowout win over Towson, I think there's value stemming from the fact that they are 1-2 with a 42-55 loss at home to Kansas as a 14-point favorite. 

A couple of years ago losing at home to Kansas would be unacceptable, but this year's Jayhawks team is built different. They just went on the road and beat Houston last week 48-30 as more than a TD dog. It's worth noting that West Virginia did lead 21-3 and had a 511 to 419 edge in total yards in the loss to the Jayhawks. 

There other loss is a 31-38 setback on the road against a pretty good Pitt team. A game they led by 7 in the 4th quarter and eventually lost on a 56-yard interception return for a score. Mountaineers also outgained the Panthers 404-384. 

Those are two pretty talent offensive teams. Kansas has a Top 10 ranked rushing attack and Pitt had one of the top QBs in the country in Slovis. 

Virginia Tech doesn't do really do anything well offensively. In their two games so far against FBS opponents they have managed just 333 total yards against Old Dominion and 284 against Boston College. 

I'm also sure there's going to be talk about the great defensive numbers that the Hokies have thru 3 games. Something a lot of people will quickly buy into because they will just attribute it to first year head coach Brent Pry who came over after being the DC at Penn State. 

I'm not saying the defense isn't improved. I just don't think it's as good as people think. Boston College only had 312 total yards at home against Rutgers and Old Dominion had just 290 in a loss to ECU and 324 against Virginia. 

Adding on to the Old Dominion games that they have played since playing Virginia Tech. I mentioned the Hokies had just 333 total yards vs them. The Monarchs gave up 531 yards to East Carolina and 513 to Virginia. 

Look for JT Daniels and that Mountaineers offense to make some plays and I just don't see the Hokies offense being able to keep pace. This also feels like it's a season-saving type game for West Virginia. With Texas and Baylor on the schedule next, they need this win, which is why I'm not concerned about them looking ahead to that game with the Longhorns. Give me West Virginia -1! 

9* NCAAF Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER: Michigan State Spartans +3.5

I'll take my chances with No. 11 Michigan State catching 3.5 points on the road against Washington. Usually I look to go the other way when there's a ranked team catching points against an unranked opponent, but I think we are seeing Washington get a little too much respect after their 2-0 start. 

No one saw the Huskies going 4-8 last year. People were not only picking them to win the Pac-12, but make the 4-team playoff before the season started. It just feels like everyone wants this team to be good and I think people are jumping back on the bandwagon after watching them dominate their first two opponents. They beat Kent State 45-20 as a 24-point favorite and rolled Portland State 52-6 as a 30-point favorite. 

Not sure what beating either of those teams tells you about this team. To me there's still a lot this Cougars team has to do to prove they are for real.

Michigan State has also started 2-0 and yet it doesn't feel like anyone is taking this team all tha seriously despite their high ranking. A lot of that has to do with no one seeing a path for them to even win their own division in the Big Ten. It's all Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State. 

I really like the Spartans head coach Mel Tucker and the direction he has this team headed. There were some concerns with the offense coming into this season after losing running back Kenneth Walker. So far he hasn't been missed. Redshirt freshman Jalen Berger has 227 yards on 33 attempts and Colorado transfer Jarek Broussard has 135 on 25 carries. They got back starting QB Payton Thorne and a future NFL WR in Jayden Reed. 

The big problem last year was the Michigan State secondary and I'm sure those struggles against the pass are going to convince some to lay it with Washington given how good Indiana transfer Michael Penix has looked to start the year. However, the Spartans returned 9 starters on defense and are much improved in the secondary. I'll gladly take the points, but I'm going into this expecting the Spartans to win. Give me Michigan State +3.5! 

10* NCAAF - Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH: LSU Tigers +2.5

I will gladly take the 2.5-points with LSU at home against Mississippi State on Saturday. I think we got a good buy-low spot on the Tigers, who lost a lot of the hype around them in their Week 1 loss to Florida State. I also think it's a decent sell-high spot with Mississippi State, who has started 2-0 with two really easy covers, beating Memphis 49-23 at home as a 17-point favorite and going on the road and beating Arizona 39-17 as a 12.5-point favorite. 

I was on the Wildcats in that game last week and while I still feel like Arizona is going to be a good bet going forward, I think I got a little ahead of myself in that one. Wildcats still have a ways to go to compete with a talented SEC team like Mississippi State, especially on the defensive side of the ball. 

I think it's going to be a bit of a wakeup call for the Bulldogs offense in this one. LSU's defense didn't play great in the loss to FSU, but well enough to win. I expect them to be flying around the field at home in this one.

I also think people are sleeping a little on this LSU offense. They are so much better at the QB position than they have been the last two years with ASU transfer Jayden Daniels. Thru two games, he's completed 78% of his attempts with a 5-0 TD-INT ratio and has also rushed for 132 yards (6.9 yards/carry). 

I don't know if it's because LSU has been down some of late, but winning at Tiger Stadium in a prime time game like we have here (6 pm EST kickoff) is not easy. Let's also not forget that as bad as LSU was last year, they went into Starkville and beat Mississippi State 28-25. Brian Kelly is 13-5-1 ATS as a home dog in his 18+ years as a head coach (LSU was 2-0-1 ATS as a home dog last year). Give me the Tigers +2.5!

9* NCAAF - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Kansas Jayhawks +9

I will take my chances with Kansas as a 9-point road dog at Houston. Those that have followed this Jayhawks team closely would tell you that 2nd year head coach Lance Leipold is quietly taking Kansas from a doormat in the Big 12 to a team that can compete on the big stage against the top teams. 

We saw it unfold a little bit at the end of last season. In their last 3 games, KU upset Texas on the road 57-56 as a 31-point dog, lost by just 3-points on the road at TCU as a 21-point dog and lost by 6 to WV as a 15-point dog. 

It's continued into 2022. They annihilated Tennessee Tech 56-10 in their opener, covering as a 32-point favorite and then went on the road and beat West Virginia 55-42 as a 14-point dog. 

While the win over the Mountaineers certainly caught the attention of people, it's going to take a lot more than that for the value to go away with Kansas. Teams like the Jayhawks that have been so bad for so long will continue to show value. I could see there being value with KU the entire rest of this season. 

On the flip side of this, I came into this season thinking Houston was a big overrated and I really haven't seen anything to change my mind. Cougars are lucky they aren't 0-2. They trailed 7-21 going into the 4th quarter before narrowly escaping with a 37-35 OT win at UTSA in Week 1. They then lost 30-33 in 2OT at Texas Tech last week. They were outgained 468 to 354 by the Red Raiders and 441-346 by UTSA. 

You also got to wonder just how much gas Houston has left in the tank after going into overtime in each of their first two games. Kansas to me is a live dog in this one. Give me the Jayhawks +9! 

10* NCAAF Sun Belt PLAY OF THE MONTH: Troy Trojans +12.5

I love the value with Troy as a 12.5-point dog on the road against Appalachian State. This to me is the perfect spot to sell-high on the Mountaineers, who are getting all kinds of love after narrowly losing to UNC 61-63 in Week 1 and then pulling off the massive upset on the road last week at Texas A&M as a 18.5-point underdog. 

The betting public is going to be all over App State laying less than two touchdowns at home against a Troy team that hasn't really done anything to garner much attention, losing 28-10 at Ole Miss in Week 1 and then only beating Alabama A&M 38-17 as a 37.5-point favorite last week. 

I'm personally really high on this Troy team in 2022. They are one of the more experienced teams in the country with 18 starters back (9 offense, 9 defense). I loved the hire of head coach Jon Sumrall, who was a co-DC at Kentucky last year. 

This team more than held their own against the Rebels in the opener. They were only -87 in total yards (346-433) -4 in first downs (20-24). 

I think with App State poised for a letdown after playing two close games against Power 5 teams in their first two games, not only makes Troy the play here but I give them a legit shot at pulling off the upset and winning this game outright. Give me the Trojans +12.5! 

8* NCAAF No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER: Tulane Green Wave +14

I will take my chances with Willie Fritz and Tulane catching two touchdowns on the road against Kansas State. Everyone is jumping on the Wildcats bandwagon this week after watching them absolutely destroy Missouri 40-12 last week as a mere 7-point favorite. In easily my worst bet of the weekend last week, I took the points with the Tigers in that game. 

As much as I came away impressed with Kansas State in that game, I'm going against the Wildcats again this week. 

I still have some real concerns with the Kansas State offense. They have been able to do whatever they want on the ground, rushing for 297 yards in the opener against South Dakota and 235 against Missouri. It's masked up some real inefficiencies in the passing game. Wildcats have a mere 196 passing yards in their first two games combined. Adrian Martinez was just 9 for 20 for 101 yards in the win over the Tigers. 

The lack of passing game could really come back to haunt them in this game against a very underrated Tulane defense. They were the best defense in the AAC last year behind Cincinnati in the 2nd half of the year. They ended the year only giving up 3.9 yards/carry and return 9 starters on that side of the ball. 

I know they have played two cupcakes in UMass and Alcorn State, but they have allowed just 2.9 yards/carry against those two teams. I expect Tulane to load the box and force Martinez to beat them with his arm. 

I also think the Tulane offense came into this season under the radar. They brought back 9 starters on that side of the ball as well. As good as that K-State defense is, I think they will be able to put points on the board. 

Another important thing to note is this is not a great spot for the Wildcats. They got to be feeling really good about themselves after blowing out their rival Missouri and have a MONSTER game on deck at Oklahoma next week. Give me Tulane +14! 

8* NCAAF Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Ohio Bobcats +18.5

I'm going to roll the dice with Ohio as a 18.5-point road dog against Iowa State. I think we are getting some really good value here with the Bobcats catching this many points. It wasn't pretty last week for Ohio, who went on the road and got annihilated 46-10 at Penn State. It was every bit as ugly as the final score, as they were outgained 572 to 264. 

That to me is as bad as this Ohio offense can play and it came against what I think is a much improved Penn State team that is not as behind Ohio State and Michigan in the Big Ten East as some people think. 

Keep in mind we saw Ohio put 41 points and 476 total yards in their Week 1 win over FAU. Starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke threw for 345 yards and 4 scores in that game. 

As for Iowa State, this is a team that I think is down a notch or two from last year. Cyclones lost their starting quarterback Brock Purdy, one of the best running back in the country in Breece Hall and two stud tight ends. They also lost their top 4 tacklers on defense. 

On top of that, I think this is an ideal spot to fade Iowa State coming off their emotional 10-7 win over in-state rival Iowa last week. It snapped a 6-game losing streak to the Hawkeyes and was their first win over Iowa under head coach Matt Campbell. 

ISU's defense did hold Iowa to just 150 total yards, but don't read anything into that. That Hawkeyes offense is absolutely horrible. They are starting a guy at QB that I'm not sure would start anywhere else in the country. They also played one of the worst FCS teams in their opener in SE Missouri State. I really think the Bobcats are going to keep this score close and if they can manage to win the turnover battle, they could pull off the upset. Give me Ohio +18.5! 

9* NCAAF Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR: Purdue Boilermakers +1.5

I'm going to take Purdue as a 1.5-point road dog at Syracuse on Saturday. I came into this season with a lot of concerns with the Boilermakers. Most notably how they would replace losing a guy like WR David Bell on the offensive side of the ball and a guy like George Karlaftis on the defensive side. 

From what I've seen in the first two games, I don't see them as concerns at all for Purdue. Jeff Brohm has really built this program up and he's got one of the best non dual threat QBs in the country in Aidan O'Connell. He had over 3,700 yards and 28 TDs in 2021 and didn't start the first 4 games. He threw for 365 yards in the opener against Penn State. 

As for replacing Bell, Iowa transfer Charlie Jones has taken over that role as the No. 1 threat. Jones has 21 catches for 286 yards and 4 TDs. 

Defensively they don't have another Karlaftis on the field, but the overall talent is very good. I thought the defensive line more than held their own against a very good Nittany Lions offense. Most of the damage done by Penn State came via the passing game. Nittany Lions had just 98 rushing yards on 32 attempts. I know it was against a MAC team, but worth noting that Penn State had 234 rushing yards on 34 attempts against Ohio last week. 

Their ability to slow down the run game is a big reason I like them in this matchup. I know the Orange come in averaging 276 passing yards/game, but a lot of that was aided with the 309 yards they put up on an awful UConn defense last week. Syracuse is still a run first team behind Sean Tucker. They are averaging 46 rush attempts to just 26 pass attempts. I think if they get into a situation here where they have to pass playing from behind, this could really spiral out of control for them. 

Defensively the Orange look really good on paper coming into this game, as they are giving up just 10.5 ppg and 268 ypg. Again those numbers were aided by playing UConn, but they did hold Louisville to just 7 points in their opener. Some of that was Louisville beating themselves with turnovers, but we also saw the Cardinals offense struggle to produce last week against UCF. 

The other big thing for me is this Syracuse defense is built more to stop the run. Last year they gave up just 3.5 yards/carry vs the run, but allowed opposing QBs to complete 66% of their passes. In their two games this year against Louisville and UConn, they have given up a ridiculous 33 completions on 42 pass attempts, which comes out to a 78.6% completion rate. I think O'Connell and the Boilermakers elite passing attack will have a field day in this one. Give me Purdue +1.5! 

8* NCAAF - Late Night ATS SLAUGHTER: Arizona Wildcats +10.5

I will take my chances with the Wildcats as a 10.5-point home dog against Mississippi State late Saturday night. I backed Arizona as a 6.5-point road dog in Week 1 at San Diego State and they won that game 38-20. 

I mentioned in my analysis for that play that I thought Arizona was being extremely undervalued coming into this season and one win is not going to change that after last year's 1-11 campaign. The Wildcats could end up being one of the most improved teams in the country with the influx of talent they added to their roster and now being in year two under head coach Jedd Fisch. 

The biggest upgrade for the Wildcats came at quarterback, where they landed Washington State transfer Jayden De Laura, who led the Pac-12 in passing last year. He was outstanding in their win over the Aztecs, throwing for 299 yards and 4 scores. Arizona also had 162 yards on the ground. 

So while I think Mississippi State is a really good football team and poised to make improvements of their own in 2022, I think they are a bit overpriced coming into this one and if they don't play up to their full potential could easily lose this one outright. Give me Arizona +10.5! 

9* NCAAF - Sharp Money ATS NO-BRAINER: Virginia Tech Hokies -2.5

I'll take my chances with the Hokies as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against Boston College this Saturday. I think we are getting some exceptional value here with Va Tech off their upset loss in Week 1, where they lost 17-20 at Old Dominion. 

It certainly wasn't the way new head coach Brent Pry wanted to start his tenure in Blacksburg, but it wasn't all bad. Pry, who came over after his great run as the DC at Penn State the past 6 years, had the Hokies defense ready to play. Virginia Tech held the Monarchs to just 249 total yards with just 165 thru the air and 84 on the ground. 

They lost the game because they committed 14 penalties for 100 yards and had 5 turnovers. Those mistakes can be corrected and playing at home in Week 2 should certainly help in that department. 

I played against BC in their opener, as I had Rutgers +7 and the Scarlet Knights won that game outright 22-21. The Eagles could only manage 312 total yards and were one dimensional with just 29 rushing yards on 28 attempts. The defense wasn't a whole lot better, as they let Rutgers come into their stadium and put up over 200 yards (5.0 yards/carry) against them. 

Eagles in my opinion are getting too much respect from the books and the public because they have a decent QB in Phil Jurkovec. There's just not enough talent around him for BC to be a real threat in the ACC and I especially see them struggling this year on the road. Give me the Hokies -2.5! 

9* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Illinois Fighting Illini -4.5

I'll take my chances with Illinois laying 4.5 at home against Virginia. I'm really high on the Fighting Illini in 2022. They made massive improvements in year one under head coach Bret Bielema last year and I have all the confidence in him getting this team to a bowl game and pulling off an upset or two in the Big Ten this season. 

I had one of my strongest plays of the entire season on Illinois in Week Zero at home against Wyoming. I bet them at -10 roughly a month before the season even started and that one was never in doubt. The Fighting Illini won that game 38-6. 

I was tempted to go right back with them last week as a small dog against Indiana, but I felt it was going to be a bit of a tricky spot for them in their first true road game in a prime time Friday night matchup. It ended up being a good call, as Indiana won the game 23-20 on a late TD drive, but that's a game Illinois should have won. They outgained the Hoosiers 448 to 362 and dominated time of possession. They had 4 turnovers and were 0-2 on 4th down or they win that thing by double-digits. 

I believe that loss has created some value here with Illinois laying less than a touchdown against the Cavaliers. Virginia defeated Richmond 34-17 and put up over 505 total yards, but that's about how it should have gone. I know the Cavaliers return one of the top signal callers in the ACC in Brennan Armstrong, but only 3 other starters were back on the offensive side of the ball. They lost all 5 starters on the defensive line and that's where I think the struggles will start for them against a talented Illinois front. 

On the flip side of this, I think Illinois' offense will be able to do as they please against this Virginia defense. The Cavaliers lost 3 of their top 4 tacklers from a defense that struggled in 2021, giving up 31.8 ppg and 466 ypg. 

Something else to note about that defense, is how bad they played on the road. In their 5 true road games they gave up a staggering 46.8 ppg and 563.4 ypg. As long as Illinois takes better care of the football and they should, I think they easily win this game by double-digits. Give me Illinois -4.5! 

9* NCAAF - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Texas Tech Red Raiders -3

I will take my chances with the Red Raiders as a slim 3-point home favorite against No. 25 ranked Houston in Week 2. Any time you have an unranked team favored over a ranked team, it gets my attention, as the betting public will almost always take the points with the ranked team. It tells me the books really like what they see out of the favorite and I'm 100% on board with the books in this one. 

After struggling to put away FCS teams the past couple of seasons, Texas Tech opened the 2022 season with a 63-10 blowout win over Murray State. They lost starting quarterback Tyler Shough in that win, but backup Donovan Smith stepped in and played great. Smith went 14 of 16 for 221 yards and 4 scores. 

I'm expecting big things out of this offense under new offensive coordinator Zach Kittley, who did a remarkable job last year turning around a Western Kentucky offense. The Hilltoppers only managed 19.0 ppg and 290 ypg in 2020. With Kittley calling the shots they improved to 44.2 ppg and 535 ypg. 

Not only am I high on Texas Tech coming into the season, I'm also down on the Cougars. They were extremely fortunate to win their opener at UTSA, as they trailed 7-21 going into the 4th quarter before eventually winning 37-35 in 3OT. Cougars were outgained in that game 441 to 346. 

I look for Houston to have a hard time keeping pace with the Red Raiders on the road. Give me Texas Tech -3! 

10* NCAAF - Revenge PLAY OF THE MONTH: Tennessee Volunteers -6.5

I'll take my chances with Tennessee as a 6.5-point road favorite against Pittsburgh on Saturday. This line might seem a bit off to some. The Panthers are No. 17 in the country and fresh off a big win at home against West Virginia, yet are an underdog at home against No. 24 Tennessee. I couldn't agree more with the line. In fact, I think it's a bit of a steal getting the Vols at less than a touchdown. 

It's why you can't pay too much attention to the rankings this early in the season. Too much of it is based on what a team did the previous year. I think when it's all said and done, the Vols will be at the very least a Top 15 and maybe even a Top 10 team, while I could see the Panthers struggling to stay in the Top 25. 

I know Pitt got a great addition at quarterback in USC transfer Kedon Slovis to offset the loss of one of their all-time best quarterbacks in program history in Kenny Pickett, but I don't see this team coming close to the 41.4 ppg and 487 ypg they put up last year. They put up 38 in the win over West Virginia, but only managed 384 total yards and the defense scored 7 of those 38 on a 56 yd interception returned for a TD. If they don't get that pick six, they probably lose that game. 

As for Tennessee, I think they are the verge of taking a massive step forward after shocking everyone in 2021, going 7-6 in the first year under head coach Josh Heupel. That was with the roster in complete turmoil going into the season. 

Now they got 15 starters back, including one of the SEC's best signal callers in Hendon Hooker, who sparked quite a turnaround for the Vols offense last year. Tennessee went from averaging 21.5 ppg and 346 ypg in 2021 to putting up 39.3 ppg and 475 ypg. 

They looked to be in midseason form in Week 1, as they put up 59 points and 569 yards in a blowout win over Ball State and that was them calling off the dogs after taking a 45-0 lead early in the 3rd quarter. 

The defense did give up 29.1 ppg and 422 ypg last year, but keep in mind some of that is a result of just how fast the play on offense. Not many teams are going to be equipped to keep pace. Give me the Vols -6.5! 

8* NCAAF - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Missouri Tigers +8

I will gladly take my chances with Missouri as a 8-point road dog against Kansas State. These two will renew their rivalry (known as the Border War), as they have not played since 2011. Always like getting a dog who I think can win outright in a rivalry game and not only are we getting points, we are getting over a touchdown. 

Kansas State really did what we expected in their opener, cruising to a 34-0 win against South Dakota. Usually a 34-point win would suggest a massive edge in total yards, but the Wildcats only outgained South Dakota 392 to 270. The even bigger thing that stands out to me is 297 of those yards came on the ground. K-State had just 95 passing yards. 

Maybe they didn't want to put anything on tape, but I think some of it just speaks to the limitations that Nebraska transfer Adrian Martinez has throwing the ball. 

Missouri played a much tougher opponent in Louisiana Tech and won that game 52-24 with a 558 to 347 edge in total yards. Most of the damage for the Bulldogs came thru the air, as they had 336 yards passing. One thing to note is that while Missouri gave up a lot of yards, they did have 3 interceptions. 

They also held La Tech to just 11 rushing yards on 22 attempts. I don't think that's just them playing a bad team. Missouri added a lot up front. They brought in 4 transfers from Power 5 programs and a 2x FCS AA. Not to mention return one of the better SEC duos at DE in Isaiah McGuire and Trajan Jeffcoat. 

If Missouri's defense can hold their own, I like the offense to do enough to keep this thing close and give them a chance to win it in the 4th quarter. Give me Missouri +8! 

10* NCAAF Friday Night NO-BRAINER: Louisville Cardinals +6.5

I'll take my chances with Louisville covering the 6.5 on the road against UCF Friday night in Orlando. My only loser this past Saturday was on Louisville -4.5 at Syracuse and it wasn't close. The Orange ended up winning that game going away 31-7. 

With that said, Louisville did themselves no favors in that contest. Midway thru the 2nd quarter the Cardinals had 1st & Goal from the Syracuse 7 trailing 7-17. They ended up going for it on 4th down and failed to convert. They also had three straight possessions in the 2nd half with the game still within reach where they turned it over. The first two via interception and the other a fumble. The latter two of those turnovers resulting in the Orange scoring touchdowns on a short field to get to the final score of 31-7. 

It was about as bad as starting quarterback Malik Cunningham could play and you just have to wonder if there was a lack of respect from Louisville. Keep in mind they annihilated the Orange last year 41-3 late in the season. 

Not only do I think there's some value built into this line because of how bad it appears Louisville played last week, but also because of how good UCF looked. The Knights beat South Carolina State 56-10 with a ridiculous 600 to 91 edge in total yards. I think we are getting at least 3.5 points of value here, as my numbers make this UCF -3. Give me Louisville +6.5! 

10* NCAAF - Clemson/Ga Tech MAX UNIT Top Play: Clemson Tigers -23

I'll take my chances with Clemson as a 23-point favorite against the Yellow Jackets in Monday's Labor Day standalone game. Last year was a down year for the Tigers and they still managed to win 10 games. There's a lot of people wondering where Clemson will go in 2022 after losing two of the best coordinators in the country. Not me. Dabo Swinney has done a remarkable job of hiring coordinators in his tenure at Clemson and I like both new OC Brandon Streeter and DC Wes Goodwin. 

The offense simply can't be as bad as it was last year and people forget that this is an offense that scored 30 or more in 5 straight games to close out the regular-season. Whether it's DJ Uiagalelei or freshman Cade Klubnik, I expect much better play from the quarterback position. It will help facing what may be the worst defense in the ACC in Georgia Tech, who returns just 3 starters from a unit that gave up 33.5 ppg and 455 ypg in 2021. 

I also don't think there's enough talk about this Clemson defensive line. It's as good a unit as they have had, right on par with that elite group from 2018. That front will be going up against a inexperienced Georgia Tech offense and a quarterback in Jeff Sims that is more a threat with his legs than his arm. This to me has blowout written all over it! Give me Clemson -23! 

10* NCAAF Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH: Oregon State Beavers -2.5

I will gladly take my chances with the Beavers as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Broncos. Don't get me wrong, Boise State is one of the better teams in the Mountain West, but just because they got 17 returning starters I don't think it's a lock they are going to be this elite team that contends for a New Year's 6 bowl. 

Chris Petersen built quite the empire in Boise and they had a great hire to replace him in Bryan Harsin. I don't know if I feel the same way about 2nd year head coach Andy Avalos. Sure it was his first year, but he inherited a team that brought back 17 starters and only was able to muster a 7-5 record. 

Given all that, this is more a play on the Beavers at this price than anything. Oregon State was committed to the vision of head coach Jonathan Smith and it paid off with a 7-6 season in 2021. The first winning record for the Beavers since 2013. Smith and OC Brian Lindgren have really created a dynamic offensive attack and I think they could come close to replicating last year's team that finished with 31.2 ppg and 429 ypg. 

Defensively there is also a lot of optimism under new defensive coordinator Trent Bray, who sparked quite the turnaround after filling in as the interim DC last year after Tim Tibesar was let go. They got 9 starters back on that side of the ball and should be improved (allowed only 25.8 ppg and 387 ypg in 2021). 

If Oregon stumbles at all in the first year under new head coach Dan Lanning and Washington doesn't rebound like many are expecting, they could shock everyone and win the Pac-12 North. Give me the Beavers -2.5! 

10* NCAAF ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH: Louisville Cardinals -4

I'll take my chances with the Cardinals as a mere -4 favorite on the road against Syracuse in Week 1. I just think the Orange are getting a little too much respect in this one. Yes this is a team that improved a ton in 2021 going from a 1-10 season in 2020 to just missing out on a bowl at 5-7. Most will just assume another step in the right direction with 17 returning starters. One of those being one of the best backs in the country in Sean Tucker. 

I just think the offense was a little too dependent on Tucker and teams started to figure them out down the stretch (scored 21 or fewer in 4 of their last 5). They get back 8 starters on defense, but lose all 3 starters from a defensive line that was a huge strength last year. 

The other big thing for me is I really like the direction that Louisville is going under head coach Scott Satterfield. This was a team that had a very misleading 6-7 record in 2021. They had three different games where they lost on the final play. They also had a lead going in the 4th quarter of a loss at NC State. 

The Cardinals bring back 14 starters and might have one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country in Malik Cunningham. He's not Lamar Jackson, but he's also not far off. Cunningham threw for almost 3,000 yards with a 19-6 TD-INT ratio and led the team with 1,031 rushing yards, scoring 20 rushing TDs and averaging 6.0 yards/carry. Playing behind one of the best o-lines in the ACC, I could see Louisville scoring 40+ ppg. 

The defense is what really held this team back in 2021. It didn't helped they lost two of their better defenders to injury in linebacker Monty Montgomery and corner Kei'Trel Clark. I think they are going to be improved on all 3 levels. If they can contain Tucker and force Syracuse to throw more than they would like, this could really get ugly. Either way I like the Cardinals to cash. Give me Louisville -4! 

8* NCAAF Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Arizona Wildcats +6.5

I'm willing to roll the dice with Arizona as a 6.5-pt road dog against San Diego State on Saturday. A lot of people are going to look at this line and without hesitation run to the ticket window to bet the Aztecs. Arizona is coming off a 1-11 season, while San Diego State is coming off a 12-2 campaign. 

What a lot of people don't realize is how much better this Wildcats team figures to be in 2022. A big part of that is the addition of transfer quarterback  Jayden De Laura, who comes over from Washington State. He led the Pac-12 in both touchdowns (23) and passing yards (2,789) during the regular season. They also added a very talented transfer WR in UTEP's Jacob Cowing. They also got experience back on the offensive line and at running back. 

Defensively they got what I feel is a big upgrade at defensive coordinator. They got rid of Don Brown and replaced him with UCLA's Johnny Nansen, who played a big role in the Bruins defensive revival the past few seasons. 

As for San Diego State, they got some nice pieces and figure to be one of the better teams in the Mountain West. I just think they are going to take a step back overall. Keep in mind they were on the right side of several close calls with 6 wins by 8 or fewer points. They also don't have the weapon that was punter Matt Araiza, who couldn't have made life any easier on that defense with how easily he could flip the field. Give me Arizona +6.5! 

9* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Arkansas Razorbacks -6.5

I got no problem laying the 6.5 at home with the Razorbacks as they open up the 2022 season against Cincinnati. Arkansas had one of the most unlikely and remarkable one-year turnarounds in the country last year. The Razorbacks went just 3-7 in the shortened 2020 season, which was also the first under head coach Sam Pittman. Most had them picked to finish last in the SEC West. They instead went 9-4, which included a bowl win over Penn State, a non-conference thrashing of Texas (40-21) and a upset win over a Top 10 Texas A&M team (20-10). 

A big reason for the turnaround was the emergence of quarterback KJ Jefferson, who threw for 2,676 yards with a 21-4 TD/INT ratio and led the team with 664 rushing yards. With Jefferson back and the Razorbacks expected to field one of the best o-lines in the country, I could easily see them topping last year's 30.9 ppg and 442 ypg. 

There are some questions on the defensive side of the ball, where just 4 starters are back, but I like their defensive coordinator (Barry Odom). After having to make do with what was left over from the previous regime in 2020, Arkansas allowed just 22.9 ppg and 367 ypg in 2021. 

As for Cincinnati, I think it's time to sell-high after last year's playoff run. This isn't Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State or Clemson where they can just reload. Their not going to fall off a cliff either, but regression has to be expected. On offense the Bearcats lose not only their star quarterback in Desmond Ridder, but also their top rusher and receiver. Defensively they lost 6 guys to the NFL and are surely going to take not just a small step back but a pretty big one. Give me Arkansas -6.5! 

8* NCAAF - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR (Rutgers +7) 

I think we are getting some big time value with Rutgers catching a touchdown on the road against Boston College in Week 1. I think at the most the Eagles should be laying a field goal in this game. Greg Schiano doesn't get near the respect he deserves for how quickly he's got the Scarlet Knights turned around in his second stint with the program. 

Schiano took over a team that had won just 9 games in 4 seasons under previous head coach Chris Ash. They went just 3-6 in Schiano's first year, but improved to 5-8. While they are still a long way from the top of the Big Ten, they were a much more competitive team than they had been. 

They might still be another year away from really breaking out, but I don't see them reverting back in 2022, even with some of the pieces they lost. 

As for Boston College, I just think they are a bit overrated coming into 2022. A lot of people like to look at the QB position and what a team has coming back to make their assessment of how good the team will be. The Eagles have a guy that deservedly garners some respect in Phil Jurkovec. The problem I have is the offensive line. BC lost 4 of their 5 starters up front. Something I think could prove to be a real issue in this game, as Rutgers strength defensively is their defensive line. Give me the Scarlet Knights +7! 

10* NCAAF Thursday Night VEGAS INSIDER: Penn St -3

I'm well aware of Purdue's track record as an underdog at home in big games, but I just have to take my shot with Penn State at -3 in this one. I think Purdue is getting way too much respect coming into this season after last year's 9-win campaign. 

While the Boilermakers return 14 starters, including quarterback Adan O'Connell, they lose their top 3 wide outs. One of those being their best offensive player in wideout David Bell. They also lose two of their best defensive players in linebacker Jaylan Alexander and defensive end George Karlaftis. 

I'm not saying Purdue will fall off a cliff like we saw with say Indiana last year, I just don't see them being as good. I also think Penn State might be one of the most underrated teams in the country. 

The Nittany Lions were ranked as high as #4 last year before starting quarterback Sean Clifford went down with an injury against Iowa. They lost a crazy 9OT game the next week against Illinois and lost the following time out against Ohio State. They later lost by 3 at home to Michigan and by 3 on the road at Michigan State. Of their 5 losses, 4 came against teams that were ranked in the Top 12 at the time they played them. 

Clifford is back and I think they are going to surprise some people on the offensive side of the ball. Defensively, they made a huge hire by bringing in Miami's Manny Diaz to be the new defensive coordinator. With the talent Penn State has on that side of the ball, I think that defense could be even better than the unit last year that only gave up 17.3 ppg. Give me Penn State -3! 

10* NCAAF Opening Week PLAY OF THE YEAR (Illinois -10) 

I will gladly lay the -10 with Illinois at home against Wyoming in Week Zero. I don't think this Illini team is getting anywhere close to the respect they deserve. They made some pretty sizeable improvements in year one under head coach Bret Bielema's first year on the job in 2021. They won 5 games with 4 of those wins coming in Big Ten play. They could have been even better with 3 close losses. 

I think they are ready to take another big step forward in 2022. Last year they featured a strong running game, but offered little to no threat in the passing game. The ground game should be just as good and they brought in Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito. He's nothing special, but a huge upgrade over what they had. 

Illinois also brought in UTSA's Barry Lunney to be their new OC. He had the Roadrunners ranked in the Top 10 in the country last year in scoring. He's not only going to pick up the pace, but it should lead to a few more big plays. 

Wyoming is coming off a solid 7-6 season in 2021, but lose a lot from that team. They only have 8 starters back total (4 on each side of the ball). They will have to replace their starting QB, leading rusher and top 2 receivers on offense. They lose 5 of their top 7 tacklers, including their leader in Chan Muma, whose 142 tackles were 52 more than the next best on the team. 

I not only think the Illini cover the 10, but I think this could get ugly in a hurry. Give me Illinois -10! 

50* (CFB) - National Championship MAX UNIT Top Play (Georgia -2.5) 

I love Georgia laying less than a field goal against Alabama in the title game. I was pretty set on being on the Bulldogs in this game, as I knew there was going to be great value with Georgia after how badly they lost to Alabama in the SEC title game. 

What everyone overlooks with how the SEC title game played out, was the fact that the Bulldogs weren't nearly as invested in the outcome as Alabama. Winning a conference title would be a big deal for a lot of programs, but Georgia is to the point that all they care about is winning the whole thing. They have been so close and came up short. 

To them, it didn't matter if they won that game. This is the only game that matters. I think we saw the difference in energy and effort from Georgia in their semifinal game against Michigan. This Bulldogs team was the best in the country this year and I think that defense will be much better prepared for Bryce Young and the Alabama offense the second time around. Give me Georgia -2.5! 

40* (CFB) - Texas Bowl ATS SLAUGHTER (Kansas St -3.5) 

I don't see how you don't roll the dice on the Wildcats laying this short of number against LSU (I put this play in last week before the line moved a ton. I still like K-State up to -7). I just don't think we are going to get a great effort or showing out of LSU in this game. The Tigers are going to be led by offensive line coach Brad Davis. Does he really know how to get a team ready for a bowl game? 

If that wasn't going to be hard enough, LSU's starting quarterback, Max Johnson, won't play after entering the transfer portal. They are going to be potentially be sending out a freshman or even a walk-on to play the most important position. 

Kansas State on the other hand is expected to have their starting quarterback, Skylar Thompson back from an injury that kept him out of the regular-season finale. I also am a big fan of Wildcats head coach Chris Klieman. I'm confident he will have his team ready to go and keep in mind while LSU is down, it's a big deal for these other Power 5 teams when they get a shot at a top-tier program like the Tigers. Give me Kansas State -3.5! 

40* (CFB) - Utah/Ohio St ROSE BOWL MASSACRE (Utah +4.5) 

I've made a lot of profit fading teams like Ohio State in bowl games and will gladly fade the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl against what I think is an underrated and motivated Utah team. 

Ohio State went into their regular-season finale against Michigan knowing that if they won, they needed to just beat Iowa in the Big Ten title game, which they would have, and they would be playing on New Years Eve in the College Football playoff. 

They aren't going to be excited about beating Utah. It's pretty evident they don't care with all the guys that opted out. 

On the flip side of this, the Utes are going to be extremely excited to solidify their Pac-12 title with a win over an elite program like Ohio State. Not to mention it's the first time they will be participating in the Rose Bowl under Kyle Winningham. With how much these bowl games comes down to who is the more motivated team, I not only think Utah covers, I like them to win the game outright. Give me the Utes +4.5! 

40* (CFB) Citrus Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (Iowa +3)

I don't think Iowa should be catching points in this one, so this was really an easy call for me with them getting a field goal. The Hawkeyes laid an egg in the Big Ten title game against Michigan. They competed for about a half, but in the end just got beat by a much better team. 

I think if Wisconsin would have beat Minnesota and not allowed Iowa to backdoor into the Big Ten title game, the outlook would be a lot different on this team. 

I also don't think there's going to be any kind of letdown from losing that game, as that wasn't a win and make the playoff scenario. If anything, I believe it will leave a sour taste in their mouth and have them excited to play on New Years Day. 

The other big thing is the matchup. Iowa's biggest weakness is a quarterback that can attack their zone, especially if they have a big time talent at wide receiver. That's not Kentucky. The Wildcats are a very run heavy team.

Slowing down the run game is what this Iowa defense does best and when they do that they tend to force turnovers in bunches. Don't be surprised if that Hawkeyes defense does just that in this game, as the Wildcats had 5 games this season where they had 3 or more turnovers. 

Iowa's top running back Tyler Goodson has opted out, but I don't think there's a huge drop off from him to the backups. Iowa has won and covered each of their last 3 bowl games, including a 27-22 win over Mississippi State in the 2018 Outback Bowl as a 7-point dog. Give me the Hawkeyes +3! 

50* (CFB) - Fiesta Bowl MAX UNIT Top Play (Notre Dame -1.5) 

I really like the Irish laying less than a field goal against Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl on Saturday. I'm usually a little skeptic on backing a team that lost their head coach, but Brian Kelly leaving for the job at LSU is not the end of the world. Notre Dame is in good hands with Marcus Freeman and these players seem to really enjoy playing for him. 

I also think this Notre Dame team is one of the most underrated teams in the country to end the year. The only blemish on the schedule for the Irish was a 13-24 loss to Cincinnati, who is in the 4-team playoff. This team closed out the season outscoring their final 4 opponents 131 to 21. 

The Irish will have to go to battle without running back Kyren Williams, but I don't think they need to be prolific offensively to win here by at least a field goal. The Notre Dame defense figures to make life miserable for a very average Oklahoma State offense. I'm not a big fan of quarterback Spencer Sanders. 

I also question how motivated the Cowboys are for this game. While they probably wouldn't of made it had they won, they went into their Big 12 title game against Baylor with an outside shot of making the 4-team playoff. Any time a team comes that close to the playoffs and doesn't get the invite, I don't know that there's any bowl game that will have them really excited to play. Give me the Irish -1.5! 

40* (CFB) - Georgia/Michigan ATS SLAUGHTER (Georgia -7.5) 

Hats off to John  Harbaugh for finally getting Michigan over the hump and into the 4-team playoff, but I'm not as bullish on the Wolverines chances in the playoffs as others.

I just think with how good Michigan looked in the win over Ohio State in the regular-season finale and against Iowa in the Big Ten title game, combined with how bad Georgia looked against Alabama in the SEC title game, it's got everyone wanting to take Michigan and the points. 

I don't really get it. Prior to losing to Alabama, most had Georgia on a pedestal above the rest of the teams. Everyone was  on them to win and cover against the Crimson Tide.

What everyone overlooked in that game, was the fact that it didn't mean near as much to the Bulldogs as it did Alabama. Win or lose Georgia was in the playoffs. Alabama had to win. 

I think it was a good loss for the Bulldogs, as it will have them refocused and ready to go in the playoffs. I also love the matchup here, especially for the Georgia defense. Michigan wants to attack you on the ground and that's just not how you attack this Bulldogs defense.

They gave up 82 ypg and 2.6 ypc in a really good SEC. Wolverines don't have a Bryce Young at quarterback or near the talent at wide receiver that Alabama had. Give me the Bulldogs -7.5! 

40* (CFB) - Alabama/Cincinnati ATS NO-BRAINER (Cincinnati +13.5)

Everyone is going to be on Alabama after how impressive they looked in their win over Georgia. I got to take the points with Cincinnati. I just don't think people take into account the level of motivation for Alabama and Georgia in the SEC title game.

The Crimson Tide had to win to get in, where the Bulldogs work had already been done. They knew win or lose they were in the 4-team playoff and with no home field advantage that's really all that mattered. You could just see it in the play. Georgia just wasn't themselves on either side of the ball. 

Cincinnati's defense may not be elite, but it's really good and when it's mattered the most this year they have showed up in a big way. They also got a brilliant defensive mind in Luke Fickell as their head coach. I think they can make it somewhat difficult for Bryce Young, who is down a big weapon in wideout John Metchie. 

The other thing that I think gives the Bearcats a chance is they got a quarterback who can make plays when they need it. Desmond Ridder threw for over 3,000 yards with a 30-8 TD-INT ratio. Cincinnati also has a back in Jerome Ford, who rushed for more than 1,200 yards and 19 TDs. 

You also got to love that Cincinnati is the team with nothing to lose in this thing. No one is giving them a shot. This team has overcome so much to get to the 4-team playoff. I think it makes them a dog with a serious bite. Give me the Bearcats +13.5! 

50* (CFB) - Music City Bowl MAX UNIT Top Play (Tennessee -6) 

I will happily lay the 6-points with the Volunteers as they take on Purdue in the Music City Bowl on Thursday. I was leaning towards taking the Vols when the bowl matchups were announced and it really caught my attention when it was learned that Boilermakers star wideout David Bell and star defensive end George Karlaftis were both going to opt out to prepare for the NFL Draft. 

Those are two massive losses. Easily the best player on each side of the ball. Bell had 93 catches for 1,286 yards and his loss will really magnify the Boilermakers lack of a running game. Losing a guy like Karlaftis impacts the entire defense, as you just don't have that relentless pressure on the opposing QB. 

I also think there's a lot to like about this Tennessee team. Not many were even picking the Vols to be good enough to make a bowl game this year and yet first year head coach Josh Heupel got them to 7-5. Three of those losses were to Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss, the other two were to Pitt and on the road against Florida before their season derailed. 

I think there will be a lot of motivation for Heupel and this team to cap off this first season with a bowl win and really get things going in the right direction for next year. Give me the Vols -6! 

40* (CFB) - Pinstripe Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (Maryland -3.5) 

We definitely missed the better number with the Terps, but I'm done betting games early until we stop seeing teams decimated by COVID. I still think there's more than enough value here with Maryland at -3.5. 

Virginia Tech is an absolute mess going into this game. Not only are they operating under an interim head coach after firing Justin Fuente, but they got multiple key players not playing.

The Hokies will be down to 3rd string quarterback Connor Blumrick after starter Braxton Burmeister and backup Knox Kadum both left for the transfer portal. Blumrick attempted just 16 passes during the season and completed just 43.8% with an anemic 2.6 average. He won't have top wide out Tre Turner or talented guard Lecitus Smith, who both opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. They also had 3 more of their top defenders opt out to prepare for the NFL. 

On the flip side, I think Maryland is really excited to be in a bowl game. It's the first they have made under head coach Mike Locksley and this program hasn't won a bowl game since beating ECU back in the 2010 Military Bowl. Give me the Terps -3.5! 

40* (CFB) - Guaranteed Rate Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (Minnesota -4) 

I'm going to take Minnesota -4 against West Virginia in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl on Tuesday. I think this Gophers team went into bowl prep riding a huge wave of momentum, as they closed out the season with a 23-13 win over No. 14 Wisconsin. A victory that kept the Badgers out of the Big Ten title game. 

The one big change for the Gophers following that game was the decision of P.J. Fleck to fire offensive coordinator Mike Sanford Jr.. Normally I would see this as a negative, but it's not like this Minnesota offense was doing anything on that side of the ball. A change could really help them. 

It's worth noting that the new offensive coordinator is Kirk Ciarrocca, who was the offensive analyst for West Virginia this season. Ciarrocca also has some ties to this program, as he was the OC/QB coach here from 2017 to 2019. 

While wide receivers coach Matt Simon will serve as the OC in the bowl, you have to wonder if Ciarrocca will be willing to give Fleck and his staff the book on the Mountaineers offense and how to best defend what they do. 

Either way West Virginia will have to play in the bowl game without one of their top offensive weapons, as running back Leddie Brown, who rushed for 1,065 yards and 13 scores, has opted out. No other player on the team had more than 300 rushing yards and the next best running back was sophomore Tony Mathis with a mere 256 yards. 

Not to mention the Gophers D was balling to close out the season. In Minnesota last 7 games they allowed just 17.3 ppg, while giving up only 151.7 passing yards/game and 116.7 rushing yards/game. 

Not saying it will be a blowout, but I feel confident the Gophers can win here by at least a touchdown. Give me Minnesota -4! 

40* (CFB) - Quick Lane Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (W Michigan -6.5) 

Have to roll the dice with the Broncos laying less than a touchdown against Nevada in the Quick Lane Bowl. I just don't know how you can expect much out of this Wolf Pack team given what they will have to work with. 

Star quarterback Carson Strong is sitting out, as is stud tight end Cole Turner. It also doesn't seem like they will have wide out Romeo Doubs and wide outs  Melquan Stovall and Justin Lockhart both went into the transfer portal. So did starting right guard Gray Davis, starting left tackle Jacob Gardner, 2nd-Team linebacker Daiyan Henley and corner A.J. King. 

That's just the players. Head coach Jay Norvell left for the Colorado State job. He took with him the offensive coordinator, offensive line coach, wide receivers coach, tight ends coach and special teams coach. Defensive coordinator Brian Ward left for the same job at Washington State. Give me Western Michigan -6.5! 

40* (CFB) - Camellia Bowl ATS SLAUGHTER (Georgia St -5.5) 

This is a game I originally wasn't going to play, but after talking it over with Jack Jones on the SportsCapping Podcast (he gave it out as a free play), I really think it's a strong play. You have the Sun Belt vs the MAC. The Sun Belt has been a great conference to back in these bowl games and the MAC has been one of the best to fade. 

Georgia State comes in at 7-5, but they were playing more like a 8 or 9 win team coming into this game. They closed out the season winning 6 of their final 7 games. They had a big upset win over Coastal Carolina during this run as a double-digit dog and only lost by 4 on the road against the Sun Belt's best team in Lafayette. 

As for Ball State, this is a team that was suppose to be better than they were, but it just never came together for the Cardinals in 2021. I don't think they are going to magically figured it out in this bowl game and wouldn't be shocked at all if this turned into a bit of a blowout. Give me Georgia State -5.5! 

40* (CFB) - Frisco Classic Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (North Texas +2.5) 

I'm going to take the 2.5 with the Mean Green as they take on Miami (OH) in the Frisco Classic Bowl in Frico, Texas. We have seen this line move in favor of North Texas, but I don't think it's moved enough, as I think the Mean Green should be favored. 

The MAC is awful and have just not performed well in bowl games when they get matched up with equal or better talent from other FBS conferences. I just don't know what the books see in this RedHawks team. 

On the flip side, North Texas is a team that closed out the regular-season on fire. The Mean Green were sitting at 1-6 going into a late Oct. game against Rice. They won that game 30-24 in OT and never looked back, closing out the year on a 5-game winning streak, which they concluded with a 45-23 blowout win over then No. 22 ranked UTSA. 

This North Texas team has quite the ground game. They averaged 246 ypg and 4.9 yards/carry for the season, but it only got better. They put up over 320 rushing yards in 3 of their last 4 games, including 340 against the Roadrunners in the finale. 

I like good running teams in bowl games, as it's a lot easier for them offensively to get back into a rhythm after not playing for an extended stretch. Miami (OH) wasn't great against the run and in their last game they gave up 303 rushing yards to Kent State. Give me the Mean Green +2.5! 

40* (CFB) Frisco Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (San Diego St -2.5) 

I'm going to lay the 2.5 with the Aztecs against the Roadrunners in the Frisco Bowl on Tuesday. This is a big game for San Diego State, as they try to win 12 games for the first time in school history. A mark they wanted to hit in the Mountain West title game, but weren't able to because a rash of Covid spread through the team. While there weren't a ton of key guys out, the Aztecs weren't able to get any good reps in practice in that week. 

On the flip side of this, UTSA seems to be satisfied with what they have accomplished, finishing the season 12-1, capped by a 49-41 win over WKU in the C-USA title game. Multiple guys are sitting out the bowl game to get ready for the NFL, including one of the nation's best backs in Sincere McCormick. 

I also like the matchup here. UTSA is still going to want to run the football without McCormick and this is not the defense to run against. San Diego State only gave up 78 ypg and 2.6 yards/carry vs the run. They were also great at defending mobile quarterbacks and getting out of the pocket and scrambling is a huge part of Roadrunners' quarterback Frank Harris' game. 

It's going to take a monster game from Harris for UTSA to put points on the board. I'll take my chances he doesn't have a monster a game and lay the short number here. Give me the Aztecs -2.5! 

40* (CFB) - LA Bowl ATS NO-BRAINER (Utah State +7.5) 

Give me the Aggies at +7.5! I'm shocked that we are getting this good a price on Utah State in this game. No one was picking Utah State to even sniff the Mountain West title game, let alone win it. There was optimism that first year head coach Blake Anderson, who did a remarkable job at Arkansas State before landing here, would get this program headed in the right direction. 

But those expectations were a bit limited given they did go just 1-5 in the shortened 2020 season. Anderson has clearly worked his magic quicker than anyone could have imagined, but a big reason for that is he was able to convince Logan Bonner to transfer alongside him from Ark St. Bonner had thrown for over 3,000 yards with a 30-9 TD-INT ratio with the Red Wolves. He threw for 3,560 yards with 36-11 TD-INT ratio this year. 

I think there's all kinds of motivation for the Aggies to end their season with a win over a Power 5 opponent. I also think they don't for a second think they should be catching this many points. 

Oregon State had a great year and were in the Pac-12 race right up to the end. I just think you got to take that with a grain of salt given how down that conference was this year. This is also a Pac-12 conference that has not showed well in bowl games of late. 

It certainly doesn't feel like it's as big a deal for Oregon State to play in this game. I mean they had to be hoping for a little more than getting a non-Power 5 opponent on the first Saturday of bowl season. 

I also think the Beavers not having stud linebacker Avery Roberts is a bigger deal than is getting made. Roberts not only led the Beavers with 123 tackles (next best 78), he led the entire Pac-12 conference. Give me Utah State +7.5! 

50* (CFB) - New Mexico Bowl MAX UNIT Top Play (UTEP +12.5) 

I will take my chances with UTEP as a 12.5-point dog against the Bulldogs. I'm not big on C-USA as a whole, but I got to take a shot here at this price with the Miners. This has been a breakout season for UTEP, who finished 4-4 in C-USA and 7-5 overall. 

It's just the 3rd bowl game they will attend since 2005 and the first since 2014. The Miners haven't won a bowl game since they took out Ole Miss in the 1967 Sun Bowl. It's also the first ever bowl game for head coach Dana Dimel, who deserves a ton of credit for getting this team to where it is. He took over a 0-12 team and went just 2-22 his first two years on the job. 

It's only about a 4-hour drive from El Paso to Albuquerque, so I would think there's plenty of fans who will make the trip. 

I don't think there's near the excitement surrounding this game for the Bulldogs. Fresno State had a really good season. They won 9 games and showed out in non-conference losing by just 7 on the road to then No. 11 Oregon and beating then No. 13 UCLA on the road. If not for a slip up in Hawaii (lost 27-27) they would have won the West and played in the MWC title game. 

You got to think they not only wanted to play in a better bowl than this, but also play a bigger program. What do they get out of beating UTEP? Not enough to keep head coach Kalen DeBoer around, as he left to be the new head coach at Washington. Also gone is offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, which I think is the bigger story here. Kirby Moore, who is the wide receivers coach, will call plays for the first time on Saturday. 

There's also no guarantee that starting quarterback Jake Haener is going to play. He said he was going to transfer to Washington to stick with DeBoer, then changed his mind. It's interesting that instead of just saying the job is Heaner's given he got the team to this game, they aren't going to announce a starter until kickoff. Two freshman are on the depth chart behind Haener. 

Even if he plays, I think that Fresno State offense will be out of sync with a new play-caller and this UTEP defense is sneaky good. The Miners only gave up 5.1 yards/play, allowed just 3.8 yards per rush and a mere 54% completion rate. Give me UTEP +12.5! 

40* (CFB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Appalachian State -3)

I really think the books have made a mistake here not making the Mountaineers a bigger favorite in this matchup. No disrespect to the Hilltoppers, who had one of the more remarkable turnarounds on offense you will see.

Last year WKU was one of the worst offenses in the country averaging just 19.0 ppg and 290 ypg. This year they put up 45.5 ppg and 528.4 ypg. The second best marks of every FBS team. Only Ohio State finished ahead of them.

For those that don't know, this big turnaround happened when they brought in Houston Baptists offensive coordinator, starting quarterback and three wide receivers. 

It's a great story and makes their games a lot of fun to watch, but there's a reason this team finished 8-5 with those ridiculous offensive numbers. The defense struggled to contain teams with a pulse offensively. We saw it in their loss to UTSA in the C-USA title game, where they put up 41 points and 568 yards and lost the game 41-48. You also got to take that final score with a grain of salt, as they railed 42-13 to the Roadrunners midway thru the 3rd quarter. 

Appalachian State is who they have been for years. They are a well coached team that wants to control the line of scrimmage on both sides. They finished the year a very respectable 10-3 with their only loss outside of conference coming by 2-points to Miami and both losses inside to a very very good Louisiana-Lafayette team. One they played much tougher in the Sun Belt title game than they did in the regular-season, which I also think speaks to a typical App State team that just keeps getting better as the season goes on. Might have something to do with why the Mountaineers are a perfect 6-0 in bowl games. 

I think the Mountaineers will be able to do as they please offensively and really wear down that Western Kentucky defense and I like their pass rush and secondary to make enough plays to get off the field and really make the Hilltoppers have to press the issue offensively. 

One last thing to note, in App State's 6-game bowl win streak, each of the last 3 have come against teams out of C-USA. Give me the Mountaineers -3!

40* (CFB) - Bahamas Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (Toledo -10) 

I don't think a lot of people realize how good this Toledo team is playing to close out the year. Everyone took notice when they played Notre Dame tough early in the year, but they lost the next week at home to Colorado State and then lost 3 of 5 to open up MAC play, all but eliminating them from the MAC title race in early November. 

A loss is a loss, but all 3 of their defeats in MAC play could have easily been wins. They lost by 2 to Northern Illinois, by 3 in OT to Central Michigan and by 3 to Eastern Michigan. 

One of the big things that transpired over the course of the season was the emergence of freshman quarterback Dequan Finn who has taken over the job under center from Carter Stanley. Not only does Finn provide a threat to run the ball (418 yards, 8 TDs), he completed 60% of his attempts with a 16-1 TD-INT ratio. 

Middle Tennessee is down to their 4th string QB and it's not by choice. Not a good sign for a team that struggled to run the ball, averaging just 120 ypg and 3.5 yards/carry. 

Toledo can build a lead here and keep it, as they provide a potent ground attack that averages 194 ypg and 5.3 yards/carry. Give me the Rockets -10! 

50* (CFB) - Army/Navy MAX UNIT Top Play (Navy +7.5) 

I not only think Navy is going to cover the 7.5, I think they have a really good shot here of winning this game outright. This is not as lopsided a matchup as the records for these two teams would suggest with Army coming in at 8-3 and Navy at 3-8. 

Navy has by far played the tougher schedule. They caught zero breaks in the AAC this year, having to play Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, SMU, UCF, Tulsa and ECU. They also played Notre Dame in non-conference. Some of the losses early were ugly, but 3 of their last 5 defeats came by 7 or less. 

Army played two Power 5 teams in Wisconsin and Wake Forest. Their other games against FBS teams were against the likes of Georgia St, WKU, UConn, Miami (OH), Ball St, Air Force, UMass and Liberty. 

You also got to love the fact that Navy is playing for revenge in this matchup. Not to mention the value of getting 7.5 points in a game where the total is a mere 34 points. Give me the Midshipmen +7.5! 

40* (CFB) - Big Ten Championship ATS SHOCKER (Michigan -10.5) 

I grew up in Iowa and a Hawkeyes fan, so I follow this team closely. As much as I would love for Iowa to stick it to Harbaugh and ruin Michigan's shot at making the 4-team playoff, I just don't see it happening. 

Iowa's only hope of keeping this game remotely close is by forcing turnovers and that's just not something you can bank on. Even with how good the Hawkeyes have been in that department. Michigan is also a team that takes great care of the ball. Wolverines haven't turned it over three times in any game this season and in 10 of their 12 games they had 1 or fewer turnovers. 

I also think that there's the perception that Michigan's offensive and defensive lines won't be near as dominant as they were against Ohio State against this Iowa team. Yes. Ferentz coached teams are always solid in the trenches, but the Hawks are not elite on either side of the ball. 

I just don't see how Iowa's offense is going to be able to do enough to keep this game close and if they get behind early, this could get ugly. Give me the Wolverines -10.5! 

50* (CFB) - Alabama/Georgia MAX UNIT Top Play (Georgia -6) 

I can't help myself but to lay less than a touchdown with Georgia in the SEC title game. I got nothing but respect for Alabama and what they have been able to accomplish under Saban, but much like the LSU team that had Joe Burrow, this Georgia team is just a step above the rest of college football. 

I just think if it didn't say Alabama on the jersey, this line would be pushing double-digits and I'm not sure that would be enough. It's just a nightmare matchup for the Crimson Tide, who are not anything close to what we have seen in the past on the defensive side of the ball and they got no ability to run the ball. 

Bryce Young is great, but he's going to have to throw it 50+ times for Alabama to even have a shot and I got big concerns with the Crimson Tide's pass protection after how bad the struggled against the blitz against Auburn. 

No one seems to be talking enough about how Alabama was being shutout through 3 quarters in a game they had to win if they wanted any shot at getting back to the college football playoff. I just think the Georgia defense is going to be too much to overcome. Give me the Bulldogs -6! 

40* (CFB) - Big 12 Championship VEGAS INSIDER (Oklahoma St -5.5) 

I'm going to lay the 5.5 with Oklahoma State as they face off against Baylor in the Big 12 Championship. The game will be played on the Dallas Cowboys home field at AT&T Stadium. 

I'm a little bit surprised we aren't seeing a heavier influx of money coming in on the Cowboys, but that's a good thing in my opinion. I would be a lot more hesitant to back Oklahoma State if this was a big public play. 

It feels like to me that there's just a lack of trust and belief in this Cowboys team and a lot of people aren't wanting to back them off that huge win over rival Oklahoma last week. I just don't think this is the spot to fade a team in that scenario. There's just no way Oklahoma State is looking past this opportunity. Not with what's happened to them in the past. 

To me that's really what this handicap comes down to. Whether or not we get the best the Cowboys have to offer, because their best is more than enough to beat this Baylor team by at least a touchdown. 

These two teams played in the regular season and while it looks like it was a competitive game with Oklahoma State only winning 24-14 at home, it wasn't nearly that close. The Cowboys had a 401 to 280 edge in total yards, 24-10 advantage in first downs and had the ball nearly 10 minutes more in time of possession. The only reason it was close is because OK State was -3 in the turnover department. 

Not that I wouldn't be fine with the same score on Saturday, I do think there's a strong likelihood that the Cowboys offense plays better than they did in the first meeting. I can't say the same for the Baylor offense. Not with how good this Oklahoma State defense is against the run and how depended the Bears offense is on being able to run the ball. Give me Oklahoma State -5! 

40* (CFB) Oklahoma/Oklahoma St Bedlam MASSACRE (Oklahoma St -4) 

I usually try to avoid taking a spread that I think is so obvious that something has to be wrong. I just can't help myself with Oklahoma State only being asked to lay 4 at home to a Oklahoma team that is on it's heels. 

The big reason for me not letting the line scare me away, is the fact that this is an Oklahoma State team that just hasn't gotten the respect or the oodsmakers this year. For them to be 10-1 and playing as well as they have, you think this team is happy about being ranked No. 7 in the country. I'm sure in their mind they feel like they should be No. 4 and at least in the Top 5. 

Not very often you find a team playing this well that continues to have to play with a chip on their shoulder. As for the books, Oklahoma State has covered 9 in a row and most of them haven't ended even close to the number. 

Either the books aren't buying what they are seeing or the money just hasn't come in on Oklahoma State enough for them to inflate the lines. Regardless, it has them undervalued here. 

Say what you want about the offense. It's nothing that wows you. They don't really do anything great. What they do is take care of the ball (3 turnovers in their last 6 games). They also are a solid running team. 

It's been more than enough with the way they are playing defensively. If a team only gives up 23 points in a game, most see that as a really good game. Oklahoma State has allowed 23 points in their last 4 games combined. 

Oklahoma's offense has looked lost their last two games and it feels like they don't know who should be playing quarterback. I'm willing to bet it doesn't just magically click for them against this defense. 

If the defense can force some turnovers and the offense can avoid settling for field goals early, I think this could get out of hand. Give me Oklahoma State -4! 

40* (CFB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (W Virginia -15) 

I think we are getting a gift here with West Virginia only being asked to lay 15 against Kansas. To me. This is a sell high spot on the Jayhawks. In Kansas' last two games they have went on the road and beat Texas 57-56 as a 31-point dog and barely lose 28-31 at TCU this past week as 21-point favorites. 

If you just think about the fact that W Virginia went on the road and beat TCU 29-17, this line should be well into the 20's. 

It's one thing if a team has a couple of games like this after something has drastically changed (coaching change, injured player coming back, new starting QB, etc.). I just don't think there's anything different from this Kansas team and the one we saw go 1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in their previous 9 games. 

They beat Texas in the worst possible spot for the Longhorns, who were delivered the knockout blow on their season with a loss to ISU the week before. They also got TCU in a big letdown spot, as the Horned Frogs were coming off that emotional upset win against rival Baylor in the first game after their coach had been fired. 

I know West Virginia is just 5-6, but they could easily be sitting here at 7-4. They had multiple close losses early in the year that just didn't go their way in the 4th quarter. Big thing here is they need this win to get bowl eligible. 

What motivation does Kansas have? It's senior day? I guess. I just think senior day can get the crowd more involved, which the players feed off of. It's not going to be any more electric than a normal home game for the Jayhawks. Give me West Virginia -15! 

40* (CFB) - Smart Money ATS CASH COW (Wisconsin -7) 

I just can't help myself but to lay the 7 with the Badgers in this game. If this game plays out like I see it, the Badgers will cover this game easy. 

This Wisconsin team might be the best team that hasn't been in the playoff talk. That's only because the Badgers were all but eliminated from that conversation when they started 1-3. I just think ever since that start this team has been undervalued. They have won 7 straight and are 5-2 ATS. 

They aren't just squeaking by the numbers in those covers, the books haven't been close in a lot of their games. They won by 24 as a 12.5-point favorite at Illinois, by 17 as a 3.5-point favorite at Purdue and by 20 as a 3-point home favorite against Iowa. 

I just think this is a team on a mission and one that is dying for the chance to play Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. Minnesota is all that is in their way. I expect the best version of the Badgers on Saturday. 

They did fail to cover as 10-point favorites at home against Nebraska last week, but that line was a bit inflated. The Cornhuskers are a much better team than their record would suggest. 

I think it's a Nebraska team that is certainly better than this Minnesota team. This is also a matchup nightmare for the Gophers with how good Wisconsin is against the run. Sunstaining drives is going to be a challenge and scoring will not be easy. I'm not saying they won't score a lot, but I don't think Wisconsin needs to put up 30+ for us to cover this easy. Give me the Badgers -7! 

40* (CFB) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Oregon St +7) 

I'll gladly take the 7-points with Oregon State on the road in the Civil War against rival Oregon. I know that with a win the Ducks can secure the Pac-12 North title, but I'm not buying it's a real motivator. 

Prior to last week's 38-7 loss at Utah, Oregon was in a position that if they won out, they would have made the 4-team playoff. As great as it is to win a conference title, it's nothing compared to getting to that 4-team playoff and having a shot to win it all. I just don't think Oregon is going to be able to pick themselves up off the mat. 

On the flip side of this, Oregon State is a team that has made some big strides this year and they aren't going to care in the slightest about the situation that the Ducks find themselves in. They are going to be extremely motivated to not just keep it close, but to win the game outright. Something I strongly believe they can and will do on Saturday. Give me the Beavers +7! 

50* (CFB) - Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Penn State -1) 

The last week of the regular-season is all about motivation and it's 100% why you are seeing Penn State as a 1-point road favorite against the Spartans. The situation that we find Michigan State in this week is one of my favorite angles this time of year. I want to fade teams who just had all their hopes and dreams crushed the week before. 

It's pretty safe to say that the Spartans fall into that category. Going into last week's game against Ohio State, Michigan State was in the running to not just win the Big Ten East, a win in that game and they would be in line to make the college football playoff. 

They go from everything you could ever dream of being on the line to having absolutely nothing but pride to play for in a pretty meaningless game against Penn State. There's the exception to this every now and then, but you can't pick and choose who you think that will be. You just fade the team in this spot. Give me Penn State -1! 

40* (NCAAF) No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER (Arkansas -14.5) 

I got no problem laying the 14.5-points with the Razorbacks at home against the Tigers on Friday. I think a lot of people might be hesitant to lay more than two touchdowns with Arkansas in this spot, as they will be concerned of a letdown for the Razorbacks after a hard fought loss to Alabama. 

I'm not saying that won't be the case, but I feel pretty confident in Arkansas not letting that loss to the Crimson Tide carry over to this game. Some senior days mean more than others and I think it's really big for this Razorbacks' senior class. These are the guys that really stuck with the program and saw it get back to respectability this year. 

I also think there's motivation here for Arkansas to snap a 5-game losing streak to Missouri and finish the season 3-0 in their 3 trophy games. 

If we get the kind of effort I'm expecting from the Razorbacks, they should have no problem winning this game by 20+ points. Don't be fooled by Missouri's win over a Florida team that quit on their head coach last week. This is a bad Tigers football team and one that figures to have a horrible time keeping Arkansas out of the end zone. 

Missouri is giving up 36.3, 446.9 ypg and 6.5 yards/play in SEC games this year. They are especially bad against the run, giving up 235 yards/game and 5.5 yards/carry. That plays right into the strength of this Razorbacks' offense, which is averaging 222 yards/game and 4.9 yards/carry on the ground. 

On the flip side of this, Arkansas has a pretty good run defense and with how Missouri's passing game has struggled in the 2nd half of the season, this could get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Razorbacks -14.5! 

40* (CFB) Black Friday ATS NO-BRAINER (UTEP +13.5) 

I not only think UTEP will cover the 13.5 in Friday's game at UAB, I think the Miners are a live dog in this one. This is an absolutely a horrible spot for UAB. The Blazers come off a crushing 31-34 loss on the road to undefeated UTSA. UAB gave up a 1-yard TD pass with 3 seconds on the clock to lose that game. It was a crazy play, as there was a bad snap and the pass was tipped before falling into the arms of Oscar Cardenas. 

Had UAB won that game, they would have pulled even with UTSA in the West Division of C-USA and simply would have needed to beat UTEP to play in the conference title game. With the loss they are no longer able to catch the Roadrunners for the division crown. 

Even with it being senior day for the Blazers, I think it's asking a lot for them to show up with the right mindset to beat a quality team like UTEP. It would be one thing if this was an up and coming team, but this will mark the first time in 4 years that UAB will not be involved in the C-USA title game. 

On the flip side, I know you could argue that UTEP is in the same boat with nothing really to play for, but I don't see it that way. The Miners are in the midst of one of their best seasons in quite some time. They are 7-4 with a 4-3 record in conference play. They have a shot to win 8 games for the first time since 2005 and their first winning record in C-USA play since 2014. 

This is a team that had gone just 5-39 over their previous 4 seasons. They had a win total for the season of just 3 and conference only win total of 1. 

Needless to say I think UTEP is going to have no problem getting up for this game. They don't care about the situation for UAB. All they see is a chance to end the regular-season with a huge road win against a team that has really been the class of this conference the last few years. Give me the Miners +13.5!

50* (CFB) - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH (Nebraska -1) 

There's lines that stink and then there's this one. The betting public is going to think the bookmakers have lost their mind, making a 3-8 Nebraska team a favorite against an Iowa team that is 9-2 and ranked No. 16 in the country. Especially with the news that the Cornhuskers will be without starting quarterback Adrian Martinez. 

Anytime a line looks to be off this much, I instantly look to fade the obvious side, but I was going to be on Nebraska regardless in this one. 

No question this has not been the season that the Cornhuskers expected, but this has a team that has taken some really gut wrenching blows and continued to come out and play their hearts out. 

Given how much these two teams hate each other and the fact that Iowa has won 6 straight (last 3 decided by 6 or less), I see Nebraska treating this like it's their bowl game. 

I also love the matchup even without Martinez. This Iowa offense is one of the worst in the FBS and while it hasn't translated into a lot of wins, this Nebraska defense has played extremely well this year. I think they can do enough offensively with Logan Smothers, who is a talented freshman, to get the win at home. Give me Nebraska -1! 

50* (CFB) - Ole Miss/Miss St Egg Bowl MASSACRE (Mississippi St -2)

Most are going to look at this line an think the wrong team is favored and will just blindly back Ole Miss. They will completely overlook that all the action is coming in on the Rebels and yet this line is moving in favor of Mississippi State. 

It only makes me like the Bulldogs more, as I not only think they cover the short number, but put it on their in-state rivals in the Egg Bowl. 

While it's hard to say that Ole Miss isn't playing well when they have gone 6-1 SU and 4-2 ATS over their last 7 games, but I don't think it's the same Rebels team that we saw to start the year, especially not on the offensive side of the ball. 

In their last 4 games, Ole Miss is only averaging 26.8 ppg. That's after they put up 31 or more in 6 of their first 7 games, eclipsing 40 points in 4 of those games. 

Now that offense has to face a pretty good Bulldogs defense that is only giving up 25.0 ppg, 360.3 ypg and 5.4 yards/play. Everyone thinks Ole Miss is this pass happy offense, but they really want to run the ball and that's going to be a challenge against a Miss St defense that only gives up 3.3 yards/carry. 

I know the Rebels defense has been playing well of late, but they haven't exactly faced the toughest offenses during this stretch. I think they could revert back to their old ways here and really struggle to get off the field. Give me Mississippi State -2!

40* (CFB) - Tuesday Night MACtion NO-BRAINER (Ball St -6.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Cardinals winning by at least a touchdown at home against the Bulls. Not only do I think Ball State is the better team, but they should be the much more motivated team. 

The Cardinals come in at 5-6 and need to win this game to become bowl eligible. It's also going to be senior night for Ball State. 

Buffalo's hopes of making a bowl game came to an end in last week's crushing 27-33 OT loss at home at Northern Illinois. Bulls look like they were on their way to potentially pulling off the upset, but quarterback Matt Myers fumbled the ball away on third and goal from the 1-yard line in the Bulls first possession of OT and the defense gave up a 25-yard run on the Huskies first crack at OT to put it away. 

I just think it's going to be tough for Buffalo to get themselves up for this one after such an emotional setback last week. Let's also not overlook that while Ball State is just 3-4 in the MAC, their 4 losses have come against 4 of the better teams in the MAC in Toledo, Miami (OH), Northern Illinois and Central Michigan. Give me the Cardinals -6.5! 

40* (CFB) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Utah -3) 

This line is going to look off to a lot of people, as you have the No. 3 ranked Ducks as a 3-point dog against the No. 23 ranked Utes. Most just assume that because Oregon is ranked so much higher in the standings, they should be the ones laying points in this game. 

It just goes to show you why you can't invest too much into the rankings. The fact that the books know the money is going to come in on Oregon and still went ahead and made the Utes the favorites, tells you how they think this game is going to play out. To me, they are straight up telling you they think the Utes are going to win this game. 

I couldn't agree more. In fact, I've been waiting to play Utah in this spot for several weeks now. Ever since Charlie Brewer decided to leave the team and open the door for Cameron Rising to be the starter, the Utes have looked like a completely different team. Utah has gone 6-1 since Rising took over and he's been outstanding.

He's completing 63.5% of his attempts, averaging just under 225 passing yards/game and has a 14-2 TD-INT ratio. He's also added another element to their offense with his mobility, as he's carried it 45 times for 321 yards and 4 scores. That's an average of 7.1 yards/carry. He's also been sacked 3 times in 233 pass attempts, where Brewer was sacked 6 times in just 79 attempts. 

Not only can Utah throw the ball, they are averaging 214 ypg and 5.9 yards/carry on the ground. They come in having scored 34 or more points in 6 straight games. I feel really good about this offense being able to move the ball on this Oregon defense. 

The only real impressive win for Oregon this year came back in September when they stuned Ohio State on the road. A great win, but the Buckeyes aren't nearly as good defensively as they have been in years past. 

I really think it's going to be a challenge for this Ducks offense against this stingy front 7 of Utah. The Utes have had some trouble against the pass, but are really good against the run. They give up just 139 ypg and 3.9 yards/carry. It will be strength vs strength, as Oregon's offense is really built to run the ball. The Ducks are averaging 41 rush attempts to just 28 pass attempts. 

I really think the Utes defense is going to feed off the energy of the home crowd, as Rice-Eccles Stadium is one of the more difficult places to play and you can bank on it being electric with this being the prime time night game on ABC set to kickoff at 7:30 EST. Give me the Utes -3! 

50* (CFB) - ACC Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH (Va Tech +8) 

I really like the Hokies as a 8-point road dog against the Hurricanes. I'm always going to look to back a team in the first game after they fired their head coach. We have won in this spot multiple times already with the likes of USC and a couple weeks ago with TCU in that shocking win over Baylor. I really think we are going to see a spirited effort here from Virginia Tech after they just let Justin Fuente go. 

On the flip side of this, I hate this spot for Miami. The Hurricanes come into this game off a crushing 28-31 loss at rival Florida State. After falling behind 17-0, Miami rallied and had a 28-20 lead with less 5 minutes to play and were up 28-23 before giving up a TD in the final seconds to lose 28-31. 

Now the loss does leave Miami at 5-5 and still 1 win shy of bowl eligibility, but getting to 6-6 is just not as big a deal for a program like the Hurricanes. I do think it means a little more to Va Tech, who is also 5-5. I know other names are being thrown around, but you got to believe interim head coach J.P. Price wants to show what he can do and get this team to a bowl. Either way I don't think they need that motivational edge given they are going to already being playing hard after Fuente was fired. Give me the Hokies +8! 

50* (CFB) - SEC Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH (S Carolina +8) 

I love the Gamecocks catching over a touchdown at home against Auburn this week. This point of the season is all about motivation and figuring out which teams are going to show up. I don't know if there's an easier target to fade in Week 12 than the Tigers. 

Auburn comes into this game off a demoralizing 34-43 loss at home to Mississippi State. A game they led 28-3 before giving up 40 unanswered points to the Bulldogs. That game on it's own would be tough to come back from, but it also knocked he Tigers out of the SEC West race. Had they won that game and then beat South Carolina, they would of went into their finale against rival Alabama with a spot in the SEC title game on the line. 

Key here is that while the game against the Crimson Tide might not have the same meaning it could have had they beat the Bulldogs, that's still going to be a game that Auburn gets up for, knowing that if they win they will all but eliminate Alabama from a spot in the 4-team playoff. 

If all that wasn't enough, starting quarterback Bo Nix has been ruled out for this game with an ankle injury and their top wide out Kobe Hudson has been downgraded to doubtful. 

There's not a lot of numbers to dive into with South Carolina and while they will win, but we saw this team not only cover but win outright in a similar spot a couple weeks ago in their 40-17 win at home against Florida. Also, at 5-5, the Gamecocks still need a win to become bowl eligible and I don't think they want to leave that up in the air with Clemson on deck. Give me South Carolina +8! 

40* (CFB) - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR (Syracuse +11.5) 

I think we are getting some big time value with the Orange as a double-digit road dog against NC State this week. Not only are we buying low on Syracuse after their ugly 41-3 loss at Louisville last week, but we are also selling high on NC State after their near upset win on the road against Wake Forest. 

The even bigger factor for me is the horrible spot that the Wolfpack fall in after that crushing loss to the Demon Deacons. That game against WF was MASSIVE. It was basically to decide which of those teams would be in the driver seat to win Atlantic and play in the ACC title game. Had NC State won, both them and Wake would have been tied at 5-1 in the standings with the Wolfpack holding the tie-breaker. 

Asking this team to come out and play up to their true potential in a pretty meaningless game against Syracuse is asking a lot, especially to win by double-digits against what figures to be a very motivated Orange team. Not only does Syracuse want to bounce back from that ugly loss to Louisville, they still need 1 more win to become bowl eligible and have an equally tough game next week against Pitt. Give me Syracuse +11.5! 

40* (CFB) - Public Money ATS BLOODBATH (Northwestern +11) 

I was a little hesitant to back Northwestern as a double-digit dog, but the more I looked into this game and how these two teams matchup, I have to roll the dice with the Wildcats on Saturday. 

While the game won't technically be a home game for Northwestern, it is being played in their backyard at Wrigley Field and I think the game being there will give this 3-7 Wildcats team something to get up for. 

In fact, I think if there's a team that struggles to show up, it will be the Boilermakers. Purdue has been through quite the Big Ten gauntlet the last 5 weeks. During this stretch they have played @ Iowa, home vs Wisconsin, @ Nebraska, home vs Michigan State and then last week's big showdown at Ohio State. 

They are now 4-3 in the Big Ten and while they are just a game back of Wisconsin for the West title, they lost the head-to-head with the Badgers and would need them to lose their last two games (home vs Nebraska & @ Minnesota) to overtake them. They also would need Iowa to lose 1 of their last 2 games. 

I just think it's going to be really tough for Purdue to get up for this game. I also think it's a bad matchup for their offense. The weakness of Northwestern's defense is stopping the run and Purdue is one of the worst in the country at running. Wildcats are only giving up 193 passing yards/game. Give me Northwestern +11! 

40* (CFB) - No Doubt ATS MASSACRE (Boston College -1.5) 

We cashed with Boston College as a 2-point road dog at Georgia Tech last week, despite a really sloppy start to the game by the Eagles. The Yellow Jackets led that game early 21-7 before a 2nd quarter BC explosion had them up 28-21. They would carry that over to the 2nd half and win the game 40-21. They ended up outgaining Georgia Tech 505 to 343. 

One of my biggest things in taking the Eagles in that game was I thought they weren't getting the respect they deserved since starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec returned from injury. He didn't put up great numbers in their 17-3 win over Va Tech in his first start back, but went 13 of 20 for 310 yards and 2 scores vs Georgia Tech. 

I think he's going to have another big game here against a Florida State defense that has given up over 300 yards passing in each of their last 2 games. I also think this is a big letdown/lookahead spot for the Seminoles after their crazy come from behind win over rival Miami last week and rival Florida on deck next Saturday. 

I know BC is already bowl eligible and FSU needs these last two games to get to 6-6, I just don't think it's as big a deal for a program like Florida State to play in a crappy bowl and it's always a big deal for these middle of the pack teams to play the Seminoles. BC also has to be itching for a shot at FSU after losing two close games to them the last two years. Give me the Eagles -1.5! 

50* (CFB) - Big Ten Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH (Rutgers +17.5) 

I love the value we are getting with Rutgers as a 17.5-point road dog against Penn State on Saturday. No one is going to overreact to the Scarlet Knights blowing out a fading Indiana team, while I think Penn State gained some respect by how well they played against Michigan, as a lot of people thought the Wolverines were going to win that game going away. 

I also think there's the struggles that Rutgers has had offensively and their 3 home losses to Ohio State (13-52), Michigan State (13-31) and Wisconsin (3-52) that are going to have some convincing themselves that laying the points is the right play. 

If this game was played a month ago and the Nittany Lions were still in it in the Big Ten East, I would probably agree. That's just not the case. At 3-4 in Big Ten play, there's no shot at making the Big Ten title game and they are already bowl eligible at 6-4. You also got the emotional letdown of losing a game to a Top 10 team on their home field after they rallied to take a late lead and another big game on deck against a Michigan State team that is currently in the Top 10 and potentially in the Top 5 if they somehow beat Ohio State. 

I just think it's a really tough spot to ask Penn State to win by 20+ points. In fact, if Rutgers can get their offense going or maybe force a couple turnovers, they could very well win this game outright. Scarlet Knights will definitely be motivated to get that 6th win and become bowl eligible. Give me Rutgers +17.5! 

40* (CFB) - Friday Night Lights ATS MASSACRE (Memphis +9.5) 

I'm going to roll the dice with Memphis as a 9.5-point home dog against the No. 24 ranked Cougars on Friday night. This line to me just feels like it's a few too many and I love that we are seeing the line go down with the public all over Houston. 

It's not been the year the Tigers had hoped for and they are coming off a crushing 29-30 OT loss at home to ECU, but I feel pretty good about the mindset of this Memphis team coming into this big game against Houston. The Tigers have some head scratching losses to some mediocre teams, but they also have outright wins over the likes of Mississippi State and SMU. 

I expect them to put their best foot forward against a ranked Cougars team. There's also motivation for Memphis to get a win here to become bowl eligible. 

Houston has won 9 in a row since losing their opener to Texas Tech 21-38, but there's a reason they are 9-1 and ranked just No. 24 in the country. They have played a cupcake schedule, which I believe has really aided in their overall numbers. 

The other big thing here for me, is that this game doesn't really mean much. The Cougars end the year next week with a non-conference game against UConn. They have already locked up a spot in the AAC title game with their 7-0 start to AAC play. Give me the Tigers +9.5! 

40* (CFB) Late Night ATS SLAUGHTER (Washington St +14) 

I think we are getting a great price here with the Cougars as a two touchdown dog against the Ducks. Say what you want about where you think this Oregon team should be ranked in the standings, the fact of the matter is, they just haven't been that impressive outside of their big win at Ohio State. 

It's a great win, but it was two months ago. You got to judge a team based on what they look like now, not what they looked like in September. Since that win, they barely beat Cal 24-17 at home, squeaked by UCLA 34-31 on the road, and had their hands full in last week's 26-16 win at Washington. The only two teams they have beat in Pac-12 play by more than two touchdowns is Arizona and Colorado, who are easily the two worst teams in the league. 

Washington State comes in with a record of just 5-4, but they have won 4 of their last 5 and covered 6 straight games against the spread. That includes a 21-6 win at Cal as a 7.5-point dog, 31-24 win over Oregon State as a 4.5-point dog and a 34-21 win at ASU as a 16.5-point dog. 

Cougars have also had two weeks to prepare for this game off a bye, while Oregon is in a bit of a sandwich spot. Ducks just played their biggest rival in the Pac-12 outside of Oregon State in Washington and have a MASSIVE game on deck next week at Utah. Give me Washington State +14! 

40* (CFB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (TCU +13.5) 

I was not the least bit surprised to see TCU pull off the upset last week at Baylor. We had the Horned Frogs +7 in that game. One of the biggest reasons I backed them in that spot, was not only because I knew they would be up to play Baylor, but teams almost always respond in a big way that first game after their head coach is fired (Gary Patterson was let go). 

I don't always come back with that team in the second game under a new coach, but I think it's more than worth a shot at this price. They should be up for this one, as they get a shot here to upset a Top 10 team in the country. 

However, the biggest reason I like TCU is they appear to have made a pretty big upgrade at quarterback going to freshman Chandler Morris. He came in relief of starter Max Duggan in the 2nd half of their loss to K-State and got the start against Baylor. He torched a good Bears defense, throwing for 461 yards and 2 scores, while rushing for 70 yards and a score. 

I think much like we have seen with Caleb Williams and the life he's given Oklahoma after replacing Spencer Rattler, we are going to see a similar thing with Morris and TCU. If Oklahoma State doesn't give TCU their full attention this week in practice, I really think the Horned Frogs could win this game outright. Give me TCU +13.5! 

50* (CFB) - SEC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Arkansas -2.5) 

We didn't get there with Arkansas -5 in last week's 31-28 win over Mississippi State, but that's not going to deter me in the slightest from jumping right back on the Razorbacks. I absolutely love this spot for Arkansas. I think they are still undervalued right now and in my mind the better team when these two take the field on Saturday. 

The reason I believe that this line is so low, is because everyone is scared to bet against LSU at home in a night game and everyone just saw this Tigers team only lose 14-20 as a 28.5-point dog at Alabama last week. 

I think the biggest mistake that people will make, is assuming LSU is going to bring that same intensity against Arkansas. I don't see it. There's no game the Tigers wanted to win more than last week's game against the Crimson Tide, which I think meant even more to them with how their season has transpired in the wrong direction. What motivation does LSU have here? You could say they need to win this to make a bowl, but I'm not a believer that program like LSU really cares about getting to 6-6 and going to a crappy bowl. 

On the flip side, this Arkansas program is a team that is trying to take that next step under 2nd year head coach Sam Pittman and winning on the road against LSU would be big for this team. It would also give them a legit shot at ending the year 4-4 in SEC Play, which is pretty big for a team that has 4 conference wins total the last 4 years. Give me the Razorbacks -2.5! 

40* (CFB) - Public Money ATS SHOCKER (Kansas +31) 

As difficult as it may be to bet on a team like Kansas, I just think you have to take a shot with the Jayhawks given this spot. It's not quite the same spot as we saw last week with Florida, who lost outright 40-17 as a 20.5-point favorite at South Carolina, but it does have some similarities. 

The two biggest differences being Florida was coming off that massive game against Georgia. Texas did just play a big game against ISU, but that game really didn't mean a whole lot for the Longhorns. THe other is Texas is at home, where Florida was on the road. 

The key here is the number we are getting is north of 30. There's nothing for Texas to play for. I know they still need two more wins to get bowl eligible, but going 6-6 and playing in a crappy bowl is not something a program like Texas gets excited about. 

I don't think there's any doubt that Kansas will be the more motivated team. Even though they aren't that good, everyone in the Big 12 is getting up to play Texas and Oklahoma with them leaving for the SEC. KU is also still trying to get that elusive first win in Big 12 play. 

Now I don't know if they can win the game, but with how little Texas figures to care about this game and how poor they are defensively, I don't think it's asking a lot for the Jayhawks to keep this within the number. Give me Kansas +31! 

40* (CFB) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (NC State +2) 

I think the price is right with NC State in this spot. Wake Forest just had their perfect 8-0 start to the season put to rest with a 55-58 loss at North Carolina. Now I know that defeat didn't count against their ACC record (it was a non-conference game), I still think losing that first game of the year will be a bit much for this team to overcome. 

I also was never really a big believer in this Wake Forest team. The biggest reason they got off to that 8-0 start was an easy schedule. They also were a bit lucky to have not lost before that with how bad they are on defense. 

They have given up more than 300 rushing yards in 3 of their last 4 games, the only exception coming against Duke. They are allowing 436 yards/game on the season. This NC State offense is going to be able to move the ball. 

On the flip side of this, you could make a pretty strong argument that this Wolfpack defense will be the best defense that the Demon Deacons have seen this year. 

This is also a massive game for both teams, as the winner of this game will be in prime position to win the ACC Atlantic. I just think NC State is the better team with the better defense. Give me the Wolfpack +2! 

40* (CFB) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Michigan St -13) 

I'm shocked the Spartans are less than a two touchdown favorite at home against a bad Maryland team. I just feel like it's a bit of an overreaction to last week's 29-40 upset loss on the road against Purdue, especially given how much the public was on Michigan State in that game. 

I stayed away from Sparty in that game for a couple of reasons. One was I thought that the Boilermakers were better than people thought and the other was the awful spot for Michigan State coming off that emotional come from behind win over rival Michigan the previous week. 

The big key with jumping back on the Spartans after that loss, is the fact that nothing really changed long-term for Michigan State. They still control their destiny. If they win out and somehow beat Ohio State on the road, they will win the Big Ten East and play in the Big Ten title game. Win that and it's hard to believe they will be left out of the playoff. 

So while that monster game against the Buckeyes looms next week, I don't see that being a lookahead type of deal for this team. Had they beat Purdue it would be a different story. They can't afford to look past Maryland and they know it. 

As far as the matchup is concerned, there's a lot to like with Michigan State. Maryland hasn't proven they can stop anybody in the Big Ten. The Terps are giving up 39.0 ppg, 452 ypg and allowing 6.2 yards/play. 

A few games back we saw them go on the road and give up 326 rushing yards to Minnesota. I just don't see a scenario where the Maryland defense goes on the road and is able to contain a great back like Kenneth Walker, who leads the country in rushing with 1,330 yards and is averaging 6.8 yards/carry. 

I think the big concern a lot of people will have with Michigan State is their defense and whether or not they can trust them after watching the Wolverines and Boilermakers march up and down the field on them. The thing is, it's not as bad as it appears. Even with those two bad games, the Spartans are still giving up just 23.7 ppg and 5.4 yards/play in Big Ten play. 

Maryland is also a pretty easy team to defend, as they are all pass and no run. It's not that they choose not to run, they just can't. Terps are averaging just 82 yards/game and 2.8 yards/carry on the ground in Big Ten play. Michigan State is going to be able to sit back and play zone and I think they are not only going to be able to get off the field, but I think they could rack up the turnovers and really make this thing ugly. Give me Michigan State -13! 

40* (CFB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Boston College +2) 

I'm a little surprised to see the Eagles as a dog in this game. Boston College just played arguably their best game in more than a month, as they defeated Virginia Tech 17-3 as a 1-point home dog this past Friday. Prior to that win, BC had lost 4 straight and failed to cover their previous 3. 

The thing I think that scares people with the Eagles is they don't like betting teams that can't score and this is a team that has not scored more than 17 points in each of their last 5 games. 

I believe that's going to change. Last week Boston College finally got back starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec, who hadn't played since early September. He's a guy that a lot of people think will end up in the NFL after his days in Chestnut Hill. 

He should have a field day against this Georgia Tech defense that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 65% of their attempts for 9.0 yards/attempt. The 9.0 yards/attempt is awful. 

On the flip side, this Eagles defense has quietly gone the radar this year. BC is only giving up 18.8 ppg, 334 ypg and 5.6 yards/play. I just don't see Georgia Tech scoring enough to make a game of this. Give me Boston College +2! 

50* (CFB) - American Athletic PLAY OF THE MONTH (UCF +7.5) 

I love UCF catching 7.5 on the road against SMU. A lot of people threw this Knights team under the bus when they lost star quarterback Dillon Gabriel, but I think they have really responded well to the injury. 

The offense hasn't been nearly as potent behind backup quarterback Mikey Keene, but he's been more than serviceable. Keene has completed 65% of his pass attempts for 1,089 yards and has a 12-6 TD/INT ratio. They also have a pretty good running back combo in Isaiah Bowser and Johnny Richardson. 

I think that UCF offense will be able to move the ball against a pretty average SMU defense. Mustangs are giving up just 25.7 ppg on the season, but do allow 415 ypg. They are also trending in the wrong direction, having allowed 32.7 ppg, 463 ypg and 6.0 yards/play in their last 3 games. 

However, the biggest reason I'm looking to fade SMU, is I hate the spot they are in. SMU has went from being 7-0 and thinking they could challenge Cincinnati for the AAC title to losing back-to-back games and all the sudden basically being eliminated from any shot of the ACC title (they would need to beat Cincinnati on the road next week and have the Bearcats lose to either USF or ECU). 

I just think with no clear path to the AAC title game, it's going to make it really hard for SMU to not be looking ahead to next week's big showdown with Cincy. Even if they don't think the Bearcats are going to lose one of those other two, they are going to be extremely motivated to end their perfect season and keep them out of the playoffs. Give me the Knights +7.5! 

40* (CFB) Thursday Night ATS NO-BRAINER (N Carolina +7) 

This is just too many points to pass up with North Carolina. The Tar Heels are catching a touchdown on the road against Pitt. It's not been the year that UNC was hoping for when they opened up as a preseason Top 10 team, but it's not been as bad as you might think with their 5-4 record. 

The Tar Heels have lost some games they shouldn't have. They had a bad showing in a road game against a pretty mediocre Georgia Tech team, but the other 3 losses were at Va Tech 10-17, home to FSU 25-35 and at Notre Dame 34-44. They outgained all 3 of those teams. 

They just put an end to Wake Forest's perfect season in last week's crazy 58-55 win over the Demon Deacons. 

I just don't think there's as big a gap between them and Pitt as what this number suggests. Yes, the Tar Heels defense is not very good, but neither is the Panthers. Pitt only giving up 22.7 ppg and 344 ypg is as misleading as it gets. Whenever this team has went up against a good offense they have struggled. Not many better offenses out their than what they will face in UNC. This line should be a field goal not a touchdown. Give me Pittsburgh +7! 

40* (CFB) - Prime Time ATS MONEYMAKER (Indiana +20.5) 

I've been down this road before with Indiana and it hasn't gone well. I played them at almost the exact same number at home a couple weeks ago against Ohio State and they lost the game 54-7. I just can't help myself by roll the dice with the Hoosiers, especially given the spot for the Wolverines. 

Michigan is coming off a devastating 33-37 loss to in-state rival Michigan State. That loss snapped the Wolverines perfect 7-0 start to the season and it's one that will be tough to get over. Not just from who the game was against, but how it played out with them leading by 30-14 in the 2nd half and not being able to hold on. 

You also got to take into consideration that they got a much bigger game on deck at Penn State next week, making this a bit of a sandwich spot for Michigan. Keep in mind that while Indiana got destroyed by the Buckeyes, they did only lost 15-20 at home to Michigan State the week prior. I just don't think the Wolverines are good enough offensively to win here by 3 or more touchdowns, especially given the big letdown hurdle they have to overcome. Give me the Hoosiers +20.5!