40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 148) 

*Analysis Coming* 

50* NCAAB SUN BELT PLAY OF THE MONTH (Coastal Carolina -3) 

I'll take my chances here with Coastal Carolina easily covering here as a small road favorite against Troy. The Chanticleers are 7-4 compared to the Trojans who come in at 4-7 and the big thing to note is that Coastal Carolina has played the tougher schedule. 

I just don't think people realize how good this Chanticleers team is. All you have to do is look at their resume, which includes a 22-point win over Utah and a mere 12-point loss to Baylor. They enter having won 4 straight and are absolutely lighting up the scoreboard at 84.2 ppg on 49% shooting. 

Coastal Carolina comes in 162nd in the latest NET ratings for college hoops and Troy is way back at 275th. The Trojans 4 wins have come against Carver Bible, Shorter, North Alabama and Jacksonville State, so there's no hidden value with them. I mention how well the Chanticleers have played against some Power 6 teams. Troy has faced one so far and they lost by 38 at Indiana, giving up 100 points to the Hoosiers. Give me Coastal Carolina -3! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 136.5) 

I'll take my chances with St. Mary's and Arizona State flying past the total of 136.5 in tonight's neutral site matchup in Phoenix. OVER is 6-1 in St. Mary's last 7 games as they continue to light it up from deep. The Gaels are No. 1 in the country in 3-point percentage, hitting 43.8% of their outside shots and average 9-made 3's a game. Arizona State has scored 70+ in four straight and just put up 79 last time out against Georgia. St Mary's defense has struggled of late. Last time out they let Cal shoot 50% and put 77 points. The game before they allowed 53.8% shooting an 78 points to Dayton on a neutral site. I just feel there's a really good chance both teams get to 70-points. Give me the OVER 136.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 130.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 130.5 as Cincinnati hosts Tennessee. Both of these teams are built around their defense and this is a huge game for both teams in trying to build up that postseason resume. Not to mention both teams are coming off a loss. Vols are only giving up 55.3 ppg and that's against teams that average 71.1 ppg. Cincy only averages 73.9 ppg. Bearcats are giving up 63.4 ppg and Tennessee only averages 68.6 ppg. I think there's a full 10-points of value with this total. Give me the UNDER 130.5! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (St Bonaventure -15) 

I'll gladly take the Bonnies to lay it on the Purple Eagles tonight. Since adding in juco transfer Jaren English in late November St. Bonaventure hasn't lost, going 5-0 and have covered each of their last 3. They did start out just 1-4 before English arrived, so it's why we are still getting value with them. Niagara is a team they should beat by 20+. I mean the Purple Eagles lost by 47 to Rutgers. In that game against Rutgers they let them shoot 59% from the field. Bonnies have shot 46% or better in 4 straight and should score at will here inside, as Niagara has no one to guard 6-10 Osun Osunniyi. Give me St Bonaventure -15! 

40* NCAAB LATE NIGHT ATS MASSACRE (Washington -16) 

I'll take my chances here with the Huskies cashing in a win by at least 20 points at home against the Redhawks. Washington is going to be licking their chops for this one, as they have had to sit around for 8 days following a loss at home to Gonzaga. Seattle simply has no shot here of keeping this close against a motivated Huskies team. Redhawks have already lost by 31 at Washington State and by 22 at Syracuse. 

It's also worth noting that Seattle is an awful 3-point shooting team and one of the worst in the country in assist rate. That's a big time problem, as those are arguably the two biggest keys to attacking Washington's 2-3 zone. Redhawks also like to foul a lot and the Huskies are 32nd in the country in free throw rate. All signs point to a blowout. Give me Washington -16! 

50* NCAAB NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 153) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 153 between Oklahoma and Creighton. These two teams can both light up the scoreboard. Creighton comes in averaging 78.5 ppg on 48% shooting and those numbers jump up to 83 ppg and 50% from the field at home. The offense figures to get even strong as mid-year transfer Denzel Mahoney is expected to make his debut tonight. Mahoney average 19 ppg and shot 43% from 3 last year with SE Missouri State. 

Oklahoma is scoring 76.3 ppg and only once all season have they failed to hit the 70-point mark. They should have no problem hitting that mark against a soft Creighton defense that has given up 75+ in each of their 3 games so far against a Power 5 opponent. 

OVER is 4-0 in the Sooners last 4 road games and 7-0 away from home in the month of December over the last 3 seasons. Give me the OVER 153! 

40* NCAAB VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (North Texas +16) 

I'll take my chances here with the Mean Green covering this big spread on the road against the Flyers. Dayton comes in ranked No. 13 in the country, have won 3 straight and are off an absolute beating of Drake 78-47 at home as a 15.5-point favorite. I just think it has the Flyers getting a little too much love in this spot. 

This North Texas team is a lot better team than their 4-6 record would lead you to believe and the books have been consistent undervaluing them here of late. Mean Green are 4-0 ATS in their last 4, which includes a mere 2-point loss to Oklahoma as a 6.5-point dog. NT will be ready to roll for this one with a full 9 days to prepare. As for Dayton, they just played on Saturday and have a big lookahead game on deck against Colorado at the United Center in Chicago. 

Flyers are also just 9-19 ATS last 28 off a home win and a mere 1-8 ATS last 9 at home off a home win by 10 or more. North Texas is 9-1 ATS last 10 on the road vs a good team that's outscoring opponents by 8+ ppg and 9-2 ATS last 11 as a dog of 10 or more points. Give me North Texas +16! 

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS SLAUGHTER (Pittsburgh -11.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Pitt covering the double-digit spread at home against the Huskies. Great spot to jump on the Panthers, as they are well rested and should be plenty motivated. Pitt hasn't played since a 18-point loss at Louisville on Dec. 6. Prior to that setback the Panthers had gone 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. Northern Illinois has been on since Dec. 7, but had played back-to-back games in California before the break and are scoring just 62.4 ppg and shooting 38% from the field on the road this season. Hard to see Northern Illinois getting their offense going against a motivated Pitt team that is holding opponents to just 59.4 ppg and 39% shooting. Give me the Panthers -11.5! 

40* NCAAB VEGAS ATS ODDSMAKERS ERROR (Arizona State -3.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Sun Devils cashing in a win and cover at home against Georgia. I just think the books have completely missed the mark here with this line, as I got Arizona State winning this one by double-digits. This is really the first big true road test for the Bulldogs and it's a long long way from home. Arizona State is 7-2 with their only two losses coming to Colorado and Virginia. I just think an inexperienced Bulldogs team is going to struggle to keep this close. Give me the Sun Devils -3.5! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Texas -14) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Longhorns covering the 14-point spread at home against Central Michigan. The Chippewas want to try to outscore their opponents and are doing a decent job of it against teams of their caliber. It hasn't quite worked against the big boys. They lost by 25 at Minnesota, by 13 at DePaul and by 22 at Valpo. Central Michigan allowed 82.3 ppg in those 3 losses, so look for Texas to score at will here. As for the Chippewas offense, they are averaging 90.0 ppg for the season, but just 62.3 ppg in those 3 road losses and Texas is giving up just 58.4 ppg. GIve me the Longhorns -14! 

40* NCAAB EARLY BIRD TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 137.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 137.5 in Saturday's big non-conference game that has Michigan hosting Oregon. The Wolverines are a really good offensive team and as is the case with most teams they are much better at home. Michigan is averaging 88.4 ppg at home and last time they played at the Crisler Center they scored 103 points against Iowa. Oregon comes in scoring 78.9 ppg and are scoring 76.8 ppg in their last 5. I just think both teams are going to hit at least 70 points and if they do we cash this thing easy. Give me the OVER 137.5! 

40* NCAAB IOWA/ISU IN-STATE ATS MASSACRE (Iowa +4) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hawkeyes getting points in this one. Iowa has one of the best players in the country that not many people are aware of in Garza. He's playing at an All-American level and it's why this Hawkeyes team is surprising a lot of people with how they have played against some good teams. ISU is off a big win at home against Seton Hall, but that was a rematch and the Pirates were down one of their better players. Iowa's defense isn't elite by any means, but they play a good zone defense and this Cyclones team doesn't exactly shoot it great from deep. I think Iowa wins here rather comfortably. Give me the Hawkeyes +4! 

40* NCAAB BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Rutgers -2) 

I'll take my chances here with the Scarlet Knights cashing in a win at home against Wisconsin. A lot of people will just take the Badgers here, as they are the more recognized program and are coming in off a 84-64 blowout win against a good Indiana team. However, that was at home, where Wisconsin is 5-0. The Badgers are 0-4 on the road with losses to the likes of St. Mary's, Richmond and New Mexico. Wisconsin also has been way overvalued by the books as whole. Prior to covering against Indiana they were just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. Rutgers is a better team than a lot of people realize and they showed that in a mere 12-point loss at Michigan State. Give me the Scarlet Knights -2! 

40* NCAAB VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (UConn +3) 

I'll take my chances here with UConn as a dog against the Hoosiers in Tuesday's big showdown at Madison Square Garden. I had some big concerns with Indiana finally leaving home after looking so good to start the year at home and they absolutely laid an egg in a 84-64 loss to Wisconsin. Badgers abused them inside and I look for UConn's Josh Carlton to do the same in this one. I really think the wrong team is favored in this one. Give me the Huskies +3! 

40* NCAAB LATE NIGHT ATS MASSACRE (Baylor -5.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bears covering the 5.5-point spread at home against Butler. I just think this is the perfect spot to fade undefeated Butler. The Bulldogs are often a one-man show with Kamar Baldwin and that really makes this a tough matchup for Butler, as they got a guy in Davion Mitchell who is a lockdown defender. Mitchell was outstanding against Arizona's Nico Mannion last time out. Other big key here is I don't think Butlers defense is as good as the numbers. Give me Baylor -5.5! 

40* LOUISVILLE/TX TECH ATS NO-BRAINER (Texas Tech +7.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Texas Tech as a pretty big dog on a neutral site against Louisville. Red Raiders are being way undervalued here after losing their last 3. The last two have been without their best player in Jahmi'us Ramsey. He's a game-time decision tonight and I feel there's a good chance he plays. Even if he doesn't Chris Beard will have his team ready to  put up a fight against the Cardinals. Louisville's only real impressive win is against Michigan and the Wolverines were in an awful scheduling spot. Upset is not out of the question. Give me Texas Tech +7.5! 

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Iowa -6) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hawkeyes laying 6 at home against the Gophers. Iowa continues to play better than expected and offensively this team is really good. Hawkeyes rank third in the country in offensive efficiency. Minnesota doesn't have a deep bench and the reserves they do have tend to get in foul trouble. I just don't think the Gophers will be able to keep pace offensively in this one. Iowa also needs to win here to avoid a 0-2 mark in Big Ten play. Expect a rowdy atmosphere in Iowa City tonight. Give me the Hawks -6! 

40* NCAAB LATE NIGHT ATS MASSACRE (Seton Hall +3)

I'll take my chances here with the Pirates cashing in a cover as a road dog against a Iowa State team they just beat by 8 at home a little over a week ago. I just don't think the Cyclones are that great and they have played 3 teams in the KenPom Top 64 and lost all 3. The staggering stat in those losses is those 3 teams have posted a 59% effective field goal percentage. Playing at home might help the Clones keep it close early, but I'm backing on the Pirates talent to win out in this one. Give me Seton Hall +3! 

40* NCAAB BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Washington +5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Huskies cashing in a cover at home against Gonzaga. I'll gladly take the points as insurance, but I fully expect Washington to win this game outright. Washington has a huge home court edge and the atmosphere is going to be electric with a top 10 team coming to town. Gonzaga's big make them a matchup nightmare for a lot of team, but the Huskies are well equipped inside. Give me Washington +5! 

40* NCAAB EARLY AFTERNOON ATS ANNIHILATOR (Oklahoma St -4)

I'll take my chances here with the Cowboys covering the 4 at home against the Shockers. Big bounce back spot for Oklahoma State after they laid an egg at home in Wednesday's 81-74 loss to Georgetown as a 11-point favorite. Prior to that the Cowboys had started out 7-0. Wichita State is a quality team, but have played a really soft schedule, lost by 14 to West Virginia and are playing their first true road game of the season. Give me Oklahoma State -4! 

40* NCAAB BIG TEN PLAY OF THE WEEK (Wisconsin PK) 

I'll take my chances here with Wisconsin at a pick'em on their home floor against Indiana. I was on the Hoosiers in their blowout win over FSU last time out. I like the talent with Indiana, but I also think they got a huge homecourt edge, which is why I liked them in that spot. I don't think things are going to go as smoothly on the road and I think the methodical pace of the Badgers and their ability to spread the floor with all those 3-point shooters really make this a tough matchup for Indiana, especially given it's their first game away from home all season. Give me Wisconsin! 

40* NCAAB SHARP MONEY ATS DESTROYER (NC State -5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Wolfpack going on the road and covering the spread against the Demon Deacons. NC State has been rock solid to start the year. They come in having on 6 of 7 with the only loss by 5 to Memphis on a neutral court. Wake Forest just isn't very good. They have played 3 teams from a power six conference and lost all 3, including a recent 22-point setback at Penn State. In those 3 games the Demon Deacons have shot a miserable 35% from the field. Not a good sign when you are facing a NC State offense that is putting in 81.7 ppg on 47% shooting. Give me the Wolfpack -5! 

40* NCAAB EARLY BIRD ATS KNOCKOUT (Butler -4) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs covering the small number at home against Florida. I just haven't been impressed at all with the Gators early on. The offense has not produced anywhere close to expectations and now they have to face a really good Butler defense on the road. Gators only other true road game they lost at UConn. Look for the Bulldogs to make a statement on Saturday. Give me Butler -4! 

40* NCAAB EARLY BIRD LINE MISTAKE (Baylor -4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bears covering the small number at home against Arizona. I've really liked what I've seen out of Baylor and while I think the Wildcats are a really strong team, they are dealing with some injuries and have the difficult task here of playing their first true road game of the season against a really good opponent. Give me Baylor -4.5! 

40* NCAAB PUBLIC MONEY ATS MASSACRE (Va Tech +7) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hokies covering the 7-point spread against the Blue Devils. Duke is coming off a big win at Michigan State, but we seen this team struggle to bring it on a consistent basis. I'm not saying they will lose here, but I think the Hokies will give them all they can handle. Va Tech is 4-0 at home, where they are outscoring teams by almost 30 ppg. Everyone knows about Duke's star freshmen, but the Hokies have a couple of legit freshmen studs. The most notable being Landers Nolley II, who is averaging 20 ppg and shooting 50% from deep. Give me Virginia Tech +7! 

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Michigan -8) 

I'll take my chances here with Michigan laying it on the Hawkeyes in their conference opener at home. I would have liked the Wolverines to win by double-digits regardless, but I like it that much more that we are getting Michigan off an ugly loss at Louisville. That poor showing was to be expected given the spot, as the Wolverines had just played 3 games in 3 days against Iowa State, North Carolina and Gonzaga. Iowa has played well in their last 3 games against some decent competition, but I think it has them getting a little too much love here. They were a 7.5-point dog to Texas Tech on a neutral site and now are basically the same price against a much better Michigan team. Give me the Wolverines -8! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 139.5)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 139.5 between Mississippi State and La Tech in Thursday's college hoops action. These are two really good offensive teams. The Bulldogs are averaging 80.4 ppg and have scored at least 72 in every game. In their two step up games against Creighton and Indiana, they combined for 154 and 163 points, giving up 80+ in both matchups. Mississippi State just put up 81 on the road at Coastal Carolina and are shooting 49.7% from the field on the season. I think both teams could hit 75 in this one. Give me the OVER 139.5! 

50* NCAAB NON-CONF PLAY OF THE MONTH (DePaul +2) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with DePaul as a home dog against the Red Raiders. I was actually shocked to see the Blue Demons listed as a dog here. DePaul has been sensational in route to a perfect 8-0 start, which includes road wins over two quality Big Ten teams in Iowa and Minnesota. The same Iowa team that just recently had their way with Texas Tech in Vegas. I just think the Red Raiders are still being overvalued from last year's run to the title game. This is not the same caliber a team. Give me DePaul +2! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 144.5)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 144.5 between BYU and Utah. The Cougars come in ranked 26th nationally in offensive efficiency and senior Yoeli Childs will make his debut after being suspended for the first 9 games. Childs averaged 21.2 ppg and 9.7 rpg last year. Utah can also score, as they are averaging 81.4 ppg on the season and 97.7 ppg at home. They have shot a ridiculous 59.3% from the field at home and 47.9% from deep. Give me the OVER 144.5! 

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Iowa St -19.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Cyclones winning by 20+ at home over UMKC. With ISU having lost 2 of 3 and fresh off a loss at Seton Hall, I think we are poised to get a big effort here against an inferior team. UMKC has no business being on the same floor as the Cyclones. The Kangaroos lost by 18 at Drake to give ya an idea of their talent level. UMKC also wants to play slow and that's a problem as ISU is going to push the pace. Cyclones are also great at forcing turnovers, while UMKC has turned it over a lot early on. All these thing should allow ISU to turn this into a blowout. Give me the Cyclones -19.5! 

40* NCAAB VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Virginia +1) 

I'll take my chances here with Virginia winning on the road against the Boilermakers. I just think Purdue is destined for a down season, as they just don't have anyone on this year's team that can replace the production of Carson Edwards. They also lost a 3-point sharpshooter in Ryan Cline. They have played 3 legit opponents and lost all 3, including a 6-point loss at home to Texas. Virginia is not an ideal matchup for this team, as they built to grind out wins with their defense, which is how Purdue wants to play. I just don't see the Boilermakers being able to score enough to win. Give me Virginia +1! 

40* NCAAB BOOKIE ATS SLAUGHTER (UMass +2) 

I'll take my chances here with UMass as a home dog against the Gamecocks. I just think South Carolina isn't very good. They are just 5-3 to start the season despite playing the 332nd ranked schedule. The books just keep overvaluing them too, as they come in having failed to cover in 5 straight games. Now they got to play their first true road of the season against a hungry and talented UMass team that will be looking to snap a 3-game skid. All 3 of those losses came on the road and the Minutemen figure to struggle away from home with all the freshmen they are playing. This is also a big time home game for UMass, as they don't get to host many Power 5 teams. Give me the Minutemen +2! 

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Indiana -3) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hoosiers laying a short number at home against the Seminoles. I'm well aware that Indiana has played a soft schedule to start the year, but they pass the eye test for me and Assembly Hall is not an easy place to play. Not only that they have covered 4 of their last 5, so it's not like they are just squeaking by. I also like that Indiana hasn't left home all season. FSU on the other hand just played back-to-back games Friday/Saturday against two really tough teams in Tennessee and Purdue. They won both, but both were grueling 3-point wins. Only two days of rest before this one and I just think this is a big flat spot against a quality opponent. Give me the Hoosiers -3! 

50* NCAAB  VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Louisville -4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Louisville. Michigan has went from a nobody to the No. 4 ranked team in the country after knocking off ISU, UNC and Gonzaga in 3 consecutive days. I just wonder how much the Wolverines have left in the tank. They Battle 4 Atlantis got over on Friday, so they will have just 3 days off before this one. Louisville has been every bit as impressive to start and are going to be playing just their 2nd game in the last 9 days. This is just too good a price to pass up with the Cardinals at home, especially given the tough scheduling spot for Michigan. Give me Louisville -4.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 144.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 144.5 in Tuesday's Big 10/ACC matchup between Iowa and Syracuse. This is not your usual Orange powerhouse team. They just gave up 85 to Penn State and 86 to Oklahoma State. I think the defensive woes are going to be a lingering problem and Iowa is a team that not only loves to push the pace, but score the ball effectively. I also think they got the shooters to exploit the Cuse zone defense. I got both teams easily eclipsing 70 and this thing finishing closer to 155. Take the OVER 144.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 146.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 146.5 in Monday's ACC/Big Ten challenge matchup that has Miami visiting Illinois. The Fighting Illini have the looks of one of the most improved teams in the country and are absolutely on fire offensively to start out the new season. Illinois comes in averaging 88.3 ppg and that goes up to 93.3 ppg at home. They will be facing a Miami team that has not been able to stop any quality opponent from putting up a ton of points. Hurricanes allowed 87 to Louisville, 78 to Florida and 80 to UConn. All 3 of those teams shot 53% or better from the field. I would be shocked if Illinois didn't get 80 and that means we need just 70 from Miami to get us clear of the number. Give me the OVER 146.5! 

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS MASSACRE (Texas Tech -6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Red Raiders cashing in an easy cover here as a 6.5-point favorite against the Hawks in Las Vegas. I just think the Hawkeyes got no business being on the same floor as the Red Raiders. Iowa is 4-1, but in their only game against a decent opponent they got absolutely annihilated at home by DePaul 93-78. I think this could be every bit as lopside as that one. Give me Texas Tech -6.5! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Syracuse -3) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Syracuse laying a short number against the Cowboys. I just think Oklahoma State is getting a little too much love here against a really good Orange team. Cowboys are 5-0, but they haven't beat anyone. Their toughest opponent was Charleston. They are also just 2-3 ATS in those 5 games. Syracuse has been on a roll since losing their opener to Virginia and they look like an even better team since moving Joe Girard into the starting point guard spot in place of Jalen Carey. Offense has gotten better and better with each of his starts and the Orange aare elite an excellent defensive team. Take Syracuse! 

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS SLAUGHTER (Penn State -2) 

I'll take my chances with the Nittany Lions laying a short number against Ole Miss in the opening round of the NIT Tip Off. While Penn State failed to cover in their last game as a double-digit favorite against Yale, they did go on a ridiculous 16-2 run over the final 5:38 of regulation to get the win. I think the fact that they didn't cover has them a bit undervalued and I also think they are riding a wave of momentum off that win. Nittany Lion's Lamar Stevens should have his way against a soft Ole Miss defense. Rebels also off a much different rally, as they battled from 16 down against Memphis to lose by 1. Those are tough losses to swallow after fighting your way back. Give me the Nittany Lions -2! 

40* NCAAB LATE NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (California -11.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Golden Bears bouncing back with a big win and cover at home against UC-Davis. Cal had started out 4-0 before getting destroyed in back-to-back games by Duke and Texas. The Aggies are a good team for them to get back on track. UC-Davis is just 2-5 to start the season with 4 of those defeats coming by double-digits, including a 34-point loss at Loyola-Illinois. No surprise to see the Aggies struggling, as they brought back just 2 starters from a team that went 11-20 last year. UC-Davis is 5-16 ATS last 2 seasons as a dog and 4-12 ATS last 16 vs a team with a winning record. 

40* NCAAB PUBLIC ATS BLOODBATH (Louisiana Tech +11)

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs covering as a double-digit dog against the Hoosiers. I played an won on Indiana as a 18.5-point favorite in their last game against Princeton. They ended up winning going away 79-54, but that was a mere 4-point game at the half. I just don't see them pulling away from a good LA Tech team that has started 4-1 with their only loss coming by a mere 10-points at Creighton, where they only trailed by 2 in the final 5 minutes. They also take great care of the ball and I think if they do that against the Hoosiers they can not only cover, but win this game outright. Give me the Bulldogs +11! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bradley -2.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Bradley covering as a small favorite against Northwestern. I think it's going to be a long year for the Wildcats. They were one of the worst offensive teams in the country last year and lost their top 3 scorers from that team. They are a very young team and will be on the road for the first time this season, which is always a tough spot. Bradley put together an impressive run to close out last year and ended up winning the MVC tournament to get to the Big Dance. They got a lot of their key guys back from that team and are 4-1 to start the year. I think they win here going away. Give me the Braves -2.5! 

40* NCAAB BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS SLAUGHTER (Kansas St -3.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Kansas State covering the 3.5 point spread against the Panthers. Wildcats are off to a 4-0 start as Bruce Weber just keeps delivering. K-State has been exceptional on the defensive end, allowing just 53.7 ppg and teams are shooting just 37% from the field and 27% from deep against them. They will be taking on a Pitt offense that has struggled to get their offense going. Panthers are shooting just 40% from the field and 28% from deep. Pitt's already lost twice at home, including a 5-point loss as a 18.5-point favorite to Nicholls State. Wherever Weber has coached his teams have been a good bet to play well in these early tournament games, as his teams have gone 21-8. They get another win and cover tonight. Give me the Wildcats -3.5! 

40* NCAAB (Purdue -20) 

I'll take my chances here with the Boilermakers covering the big 20-point spread at home against the inferior Jacksonville State. Purdue is just 2-2 to start and I think it has them a bit undervalued here. It's not like they lost to bad teams, as their two losses came against Texas and Marquette. We just saw Jacksonville State get annihilated on the road at VCU 93-65 and I think this could be even more lopsided with the massive edge Purdue has on the inside. Give me the Boilermakers -20! 

40* NCAAB (Penn State -14.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Nittany Lions laying it on Penn and easily covering the 14.5-point spread. I've really been impressed with what I've seen out of this Penn State team. They are 4-0 and have dominated every team they have faced, including a 81-66 win at Georgetown and the Hoyas have since beat Texas and lost by just 8 to No. 1 Duke. Penn is already a far inferior team and may not have much in the gas tank after a grueling 100-89 overtime win against Siena last time out. This is also their 4th road game already this season. Give me the Nittany Lions -14.5! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Maryland -18) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Terps cashing in a win by at least 20 at home against the Patriots. George Mason comes in at 5-0, but it's come against a bunch of bad teams. All 5 of their wins have been against teams ranked outside the Top 200 in KenPom's rankings. 

George Mason did win a respectable 18 games last year, but they lost two of their better players from that team to transfers in Otis Livingston II and Jaire Grayer. They also lost their likely go-to-guy this year in senior guard Justin Kier to a season ending wrist injury. 

Maryland just doesn't lose at home in non-conference and are playing more of a full court press that I think will give the Patriots troubles. Too much talent and too much depth for the Terps for George Mason to keep it respectable. Give me Maryland -18! 

40* NCAAB AFTERNOON ATS SLAUGHTER (FIU -6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Panthers covering the 6.5-point spread against Eastern Kentucky. FIU is 3-0 ATS and covering against the number by almost 20-points game. I just think FIU has a big edge across the board in this one. Both these teams like to run and I just don't see the Colonels being able to keep pace. Eastern Kentucky lost their best player in Cick Mayo, who averaged 23.7 ppg. Turnovers have been a big problem for the Colonels and if they don't take care of the ball here this could get real ugly. FIU is shooting lights out from 3 (42.4%) and will give up no easy shots inside. Give me the Panthers -6.5!

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Arizona -23.5) 

I'll take my chances with Arizona covering as a massive 23.5-point favorite against South Dakota State. The Wildcats were one of the biggest disappointments last year, but you could see it coming. They just didn't have the talent as years past. That's not the case this year. Arizona is loaded and are a team on a mission to start the season. They have gone 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in their first 4. All 4 wins coming by at least 20 points, including a 21-point win over Illinois. 

The Jackrabbits are a very young team with primary a bunch of freshmen and sophomores in their rotation. They just don't have the talent to hang with Arizona, especially given they are playing out west on just 1 day of rest after hosting North Alabama on Tuesday. GIve me the Wildcats -23.5! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Texas -6.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Longhorns covering the 6.5-point spread against Georgetown in the opening round of the Empire Classic at Madison Square Garden. I've really been impressed with what I've seen out of the Longhorns to start this season. They are 4-0 and have a big road win as a 6.5-point dog at Purdue. 

Georgetown is 3-1, but in their long game against a Power 5 team, Penn State, they lost at home by 14 as a favorite. Big thing here is the Hoyas are a very limited offense and really rely on their ability to score inside, as they don't take or make many 3's. That's a problem against what I think is an elite Texas defense that will give them no easy looks inside. Give me the Longhorns -6.5! 

40* NCAAB LATE NIGHT ATS SLAUGHTER (Colorado St -12) 

I'll take my chances here with Colorado State laying 12 at home against Arkansas State. The Rams are a team I've been impressed with early on and could see them being a big time factor in the MWC. They are 3-1 to start the year with their only setback coming at Duke. Arkansas State is a fluky 4-1 as they have played a soft schedule. I think the RedWolves defense will get exposed here as teams have been able to score at will inside and the Rams have a big time talent in big man Nico Carvacho. This is also a tough spot for Ark St, as they will be playing their 4th game in 7 days. RedWolves are not a deep team either, playing just 7 guys and I think they run out of gas in this matchup at high altitude. Give me Colorado State -12! 

40* NCAAB PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Columbia +10.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Columbia as a double-digit dog against the Red Storm. The Lions bring back 5 starters, as well as senior guard Mike Smith. This is a better team than a lot of people will realize, especially after their 1-3 start. St John's rolled Mercer and Central Connecticut State, but didn't cover in a home win over New Hampshire as a big favorite and lost outright at home to Vermont as a favorite. Columbia has the experience and talent to handle St. John's pressure and I think an upset could be in the works. Give me the Lions +10.5! 

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Indiana -18.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hoosiers winning by 20+ at home against the Tigers. Indiana didn't live up to expectations last year and I think it has them flying under the radar to start this season. They have started out 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. The only game they didn't cover was by a 1/2-point in a 19-point win as a 19.5 point favorite against Portland State. That 19 point is their smallest margin of victory on the season. Princeton is 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS. Tigers are allowing an effective fieldgoal rate of 60% and offer little to no rim protection. Indiana is averaging 93.5 ppg and shooting 54% from the field. Give me the Hoosiers -18.5! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UMass -6) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with UMass laying it on Rider and cruising to an easy win and cover at home. The Minutemen have started out a perfect 4-0 and their only non-cover was a 2-point win as a 3-point favorite at Fairfield. Rider opened up with road wins against Coppin State and Delaware State, but that was to be expected as those are two bad teams. They got a big test at ASU and failed miserably, losing 92-55. Rider doesn't shoot the 3 and gives up a ton of them, which is a recipe for disaster. I also think the Brons will be out of gas here. Rider is playing their 4th straight on the road and had just two days off from going way out west to face the Sun Devils. Give me the Minutemen -6! 

40* NCAAB BLOCKBUSTER ATS SLAUGHTER (Iowa St -18) 

I'll take my chances here with the Cyclones winning by 20+ at home against the Golden Eagles. Southern Miss isn't built to compete with Power 5 teams like ISU, especially on the road. Golden Eagles have almost no depth, as they basically play 6 guys. They need games to be played at a slower pace to have a chance and ISU likes to push the pace behind star point guard Tyrese Haliburton. Another thing here favoring the Cyclones is turnovers. Southern Miss does not take good care of the ball and ISU ranks in the top 40 in steal rate. If the Golden Eagles get into any kind of foul trouble with their lack of depth, this thing could get real ugly. Give me the Cyclones -18! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Northern Iowa -15) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Northern Iowa covering the big number at home against Tennessee-Martin. Not only is this a really tough matchup for the Skyhawks, they are in a horrible situational spot playing their 3rd straight on the road in just a span of 7 days. They had to play Wichita State on the road on just 2 days rest last time out and got annihilated 103-62 as a mere 16-point dog. UNI is off to a perfect 4-0 start. Defense will be the key in this thing getting out of hand. Panthers are a really good defensive team. They are allowing 58.5 ppg and holding teams to 16 points below their average. Tennessee-Martin is givin up 83.5 ppg and almost 13 ppg more than their opponents average. Give me UNI -15! 

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (FIU -7.5) 

I'll take my chances here with FIU winning by double-digits on the road against Cleveland State. I think this is the perfect buy low spot on the Panthers, who have started out 1-2, but those two losses have both come on the road against Power 5 teams in Mississippi State and NC State. They were competitive in both. They only lost by 8 as a 16.5-point dog at the Bulldogs and by just 9 as a 17.5-point dog at the Wolfpack. 

Cleveland State has started out just 1-3 with their only win coming against a non-D1 opponent. They two have played two power 5 teams on the road and lost by 35 at Minnesota and by 27 at South Carolina. They also lost by 20 at Missouri State. Give me FIU -7.5! 

40* NCAAB LATE NIGHT ATS MASSACRE (UCLA -8) 

I'll take my chances here with UCLA winning by double-digits at home against the Rebels. I just think this Bruins team is poised to make some noise under new head coach Mick Cronin and this also is an ideal spot to fade UNLV. The Rebels will be playing their 3rd game in a week span and each of the last two went to overtime with UNLV's star guard Amauri Hardy playing 40+ minutes in both games. I just don't see them being able to keep this close. Give me UCLA -8! 

40* NCAAB ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (Utah -4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Utes laying a short number at home against the Gophers. Minnesota is coming off a couple of losses and failed covers against Oklahoma and Butler. They shot the ball poorly in both games, hitting just 39% against the Sooners and 33% against the Bulldogs. They are getting next to nothing out of their bench and I always think it's tough for these midwest teams to travel out west, especially early in the season. Utah is also a team I think is a lot better than people realize. Give me the Utes -4.5! 

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS MASSACRE (Michigan State -6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Spartans cashing in a win and cover at Seton Hall. The Pirates are expected to be really good this year, but will be playing without their best player in Myles Powell, who suffered an ankle injury. I also think Michigan State is playing inspired for their star point guard Cassius Winston, who just lost his younger brother earlier this week. Give me the Spartans -6.5! 

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS SLAUGHTER (UConn -14.5) 

I'll take my chances here with UConn making easy work of St. Joe's tonight. The Huskies struggled in the first year under Dan Hurley last season, going just 16-17 overall and 6-12 in the American, but I'm expecting big improvements in year two under Hurley. Note that he went just 8-21 in year one with Rhode Island and by the time he left they finished 25-8. UConn was way undervalued in their opener, as they cruised to a 22-point win as a 16.5-point favorite against Sacred Heart. St. Joe's is in a full on rebuild, after losing 4 of their best players who combined for 54.4 ppg last year. Note the Hawks only averaged 70.5 ppg, so that's 77% of their scoring they must replace. Give me UConn -14.5! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Villanova +2.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Villanova going on the road and knocking off Ohio State. I think the Wildcats are one of the better teams people aren't talking about. All Jay Wright does is deliver great teams. I mean they went 26-10 and won both the Big East regular-season and tournament titles and yet it was considered a disappointing season. I was on the Buckeyes in their win and cover against Cincinnati in their opener, but Ohio State was extremely fortunate to cover that contest. The offense is really hard to watch and I just don't think the Buckeyes will be able to keep pace offensively in this one. Give me Villanova +2.5! 

40* NCAAB PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (VCU -2.5) 

I'll take my chances here with VCU as a small home favorite against No. 23 LSU. Anytime a ranked team is getting points against an unranked opponent, it's usually a good idea to take the favorite, especially if the public is on the road dog like they are here. The Rams went 25-8 overall and 16-2 in the A-10 last year (won the conf). They should be even better with 4 starters back. Will Wade is doing some nice things with LSU and there's a lot of talent there, but they are very young (basically entire roster is freshmen and sophomores). They lost 3 really good players from last year's team in Tremont Waters, Naz Reid and Kavell Bigby-Williams. I think that inexperience will be too much to overcome in their first road game of the season. Give me VCU -2.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 140.5)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 140.5 in tonight's big college hoops matchup between Oklahoma and Oregon State. Both of these teams are really strong on the defensive side of the ball. It's why the total is what it is when Oklahoma is averaging 78 ppg and Oregon State is scoring 83.5 ppg. UNDER is 13-3 in the Sooners last 16 non-conference games and 13-4 in the Beavers last 17 after scoring 75 or more in 2 straight games. Give me the UNDER 140.5! 

40* NCAAB BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (E Illinois -19)

I'll take my chances here with the Panthers winning by 20+ at home against Chicago State. Eastern Illinois did themselves no favors to start the season, as they opened up with road games at Texas Tech and Wisconsin. They just missed out on a cover against the Red Raiders, losing by 25 as a 22.5-point dog. They then only lost by 13 to the Badgers as a 19-point dog. 

I expect the Panthers to be 100% locked in for their home opener tonight. Chicago State is not good. The Cougars went just 3-29 last year and were winless in the WAC. Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points who were outscored by 12 or more points/game the previous season are a mere 5-25 (17%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Give me Eastern Illinois -19! 

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Drake +12.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs covering the big spread at Cincinnati. Drake had one of the more improbable seasons last year, as they went 24-10 and tied for the MVC top spot with Loyola, despite returning just two guys. All the credit goes to first year head coach Darian DeVries and I look for this team to be just as good this season with 3 starters back and some nice transfer additions. Cincinnati is also a team in transition after losing legendary Bearcats head coach Mike Cronin to UCLA. Give me the Bulldogs +12.5! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Xavier -19)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Musketeers covering the spread at home against Siena. Sure the Saints have a future NBA player in Jalen Pickett, but they are no match for a Xavier team that figures to be one of the most improved teams in the country this year. Musketeers did fail to cover in their opener against Jacksonville, but that was simply because they put it in cruise control after taking a 43-22 lead at the half. I could easily see Xavier having this thing covered in the 1st half tonight. Give me the Musketeers -19! 

40* NCAAB PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Davidson +2.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Davidson as a small dog against Auburn. I really like this year's Wildcats team. They got everyone back from a 24-win team that made the NCAA Tournament last year. The Tigers on the other hand figure to be down a notch or two. Auburn lost a ton from last year's Final Four team. Tigers lost 3 elite starters in Bryce Brown, Jared Harper and Chuma Okeke. They are going to have to rely a lot on guys that don't have a lot of experience and will likely struggle early because of it. Note they only won by 9 as a 14-point favorite in their opener against Georgia Southern. Give me Davidson +2.5! 

40* NCAAB VEGAS ATS SLAUGHTER (Ohio State -6) 

I was a big fan of the Buckeyes hire of Chris Holtmann a couple years back. Last year they got off to an incredible start before a disappointing 8-12 mark in Big Ten play. They did bounce back to win over No. 6 Ohio State in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament. Buckeyes have 3 starters back, several key role players and a star-studded recruiting class that was ranked tops in the Big 10 and 10th nationally. I think this team is going to be a lot better than people think. Cincinnati has some nice talent and welcomed the return of Jarron Cumberland, but lost the guy that made it all work in head coach Mick Cronin (now at UCLA). Last year Ohio State won by 8 at Cincinnati and  I think the Buckeyes are improved while the Bearcats are likely to take a step back. GIve me Ohio State -6! 

40* NCAAB PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Clemson -6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Clemson covering the 6.5 at home against the Hokies. Virginia Tech will be a team I'm looking to fade early until they show me something. I just think the Hokies are going to take a big step back after losing a great head coach in Buzz Williams and having to replace 4 starters and top 5 scorers. Clemson isn't a real threat in the ACC, but should be improved from last year and I like them to come out strong. Give me the Tigers -6.5! 

50* VIRGINIA/TEXAS TECH SHAPR MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 118) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER, as I just don't see any reason to overthink this one. You have arguably the two best defensive teams in the country facing off. Neither team likes to push the pace and both have their limitations on the offensive side of the ball. Texas Tech only combined for 112 in their win over Michigan State and Virginia's victory over Auburn saw just 125. I think this could be really tough to watch for those that don't like defense, as I think it could be a race to 50 points. Give me the UNDER 118. 

50* FINAL FOUR PLAY OF THE YEAR (Under 132) 

I'm shocked this total is in the 130's. I'll gladly take my chances it stays below the mark. Michigan State surprised everyone by beating Duke, but they only managed 68 points on 43% shooting in the win. The Blue Devils play good defense on just their talent. Texas Tech's defense is on a whole different level. 

All Michigan State has to do is ask their biggest rival in Michigan, who the Red Raiders held to a mere 44 points and 33% shooting. Michigan State's offense might be a little better than the Wolverines, but not by much. 

Spartans are also a very strong defense team and I just think it's going to be a struggle for both sides to reach 50 points and this total is basically asking both teams to score 66. Give me the UNDER 132! 

50* NIT SEMIFINAL *MAX BET* TOP PLAY (Over 150.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Tuesday's NIT semifinal action between  Wichita State and Lipscomb. For those that haven't watched the Bisons, they have one of the best players you haven't heard of in Garrison Mathews. The guy just put up 44 points against NC State. He can really do it all, as he made 14 shots in total, including 8 from behind the 3-point line. He's playing out of his mind in the NIT and I think the assumption here is that Wichita State is going to be able to shut him down. 

I don't think so and as long as Mathews plays well, this thing should easily eclipse this total. Not only is Mathews a prolific scorer, but this Lipscomb team plays at the 14th fastest pace in the country. They are also a very unselfish team (24 assists on 34 made field goals vs NC State). They have scored at leas 86 in all 3 NIT games and given up 80+ twice. 

Note that while the Shockers aren't giving up a ton in the NIT, they have played 3 teams that don't like to push the tempo in Indiana (216th), Clemson (252nd) and Furman (231st). The closest thing to Lipscomb that Wichita State has seen in terms of pace is Memphis (7th). Both meetings saw at least 159 points and both times Memphis got to 85 points. Also, Tigers won both of those games, so I would definitely lean Lipscomb for those wanting to play a side. I just see more value in the total. Give me the OVER 150.5! 

50* KENTUCKY/AUBURN ELITE 8 SHARP TOP PLAY (Kentucky -4) 

I'll take my chances here with Kentucky covering the short number against the Tigers. Wildcats already have beat Auburn twice this season, including a 80-53 thrashing of the Tigers in the most recent meeting. On top of that, Auburn suffered a huge blow with Chuma Okeke going down with a torn ACL. He was their leading scorer (20 points) against UNC and had a double-double with 11 boards. He's just one guy they couldn't afford to lose. The other thing here is Kentucky defends the 3-ball well and that's really the strength of this Auburn offense. Give me the Wildcats -4! 

40* VIRGINIA/PURDUE ELITE 8 ATS SLAUGHTER (Virginia -4) 

I'll take my chances here with Virginia covering the small 4-point spread against Purdue. It's been quite a run for the Boilermakers to this point, but I just think this is going to be a really tall task for them coming off that emotional and draining 99-94 overtime win against Tennessee and having to face a Virginia team that is going to grind you from the opening tip to the final whistle. Carsen Edwards has been great, but he played 45 minutes in that game and it's unlikely they get another 27 points from Ryan Cline, who went 7 of 10 from deep against the Vols. Give me Virginia -4! 

40* GONZAGA/TEXAS TECH ELITE 8 NO-BRAINER (Gonzaga -4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs covering the 4.5 point spread against the Red Raiders. I was really impressed with what I saw from Gonzaga in their win over Florida State, as I really thought the Seminoles were going to win that game. I just think this is a very similar match, as both Texas Tech and FSU are built on their defense. I get the Red Raiders might be a little better on the defensive side, but I also think this Gonzaga offense is a lot to handle and I like great offense over great defense. Give me the Bulldogs -4.5! 

40* SWEET 16 NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Duke -7) 

I'll take my chances here with the Blue Devils bouncing back from that near upset loss against UCF with a resounding blowout win over ACC rival Virginia Tech. I think that was the wake-up call that Duke needed. We saw it last year with Michigan, who beat Houston on a buzzer beater in the round of 32 and ended up playing in the title game. UCF was also just a bad matchup for Duke, as they had a 7'6 giant in the middle that you just can't prepare for. Va Tech beat the Blue Devils in the regular-season, but Duke was without Zion Williamson and they still shot 50% from the field. Give me the Blue Devils -7! 

40* NCAAB BLOCKBUSTER ATS MASSACRE (Oregon +8.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Oregon as a near double-digit dog against the Cavaliers. I think people are trying to talk themselves into Virginia, despite the fact that they have not impressed at all in the first two rounds and simply have not performed anywhere close to expectations in the NCAA Tournament under head coach Tony Bennett. I not only think they struggle to cover, but I could easily see them losing this game outright. 

You can't judge Oregon by their overall record and numbers. This has simply been a different team down the stretch. Dana Altman has the Ducks playing elite level defense and that alone makes them a candidate to win, as Virginia doesn't exactly light up the scoreboard. I could Oregon jumping out to an early lead and never letting go of that advantage. Either way, I don't see a blowout here by the Cavaliers. Give me the Ducks +8.5! 

40* NCAAB VEGAS ODDSMAKERS ERROR (Florida State +8) 

I think Gonzaga is a bit overrated. Sure they have the win over Duke, which is definitely nothing to ignore, but they also lost to Tennessee and North Carolina. They only beat Creighton by 11, Illinois by 6 and Washington by 2. I think if they played in the ACC they wouldn’t be much better than Florida State’s mark of 13-5. At the same time I think Florida State could easily come close, if not match the 16-0 record that Gonzaga had in the WCC.

Keep in mind the Seminoles come in having gone 15-2 over their last 17 and their only two losses are to arguably the two best teams in the country in Duke and North Carolina.  Simply put, I think this line should be closer to a pick’em, especially when you factor in what the Seminoles did to the Bulldogs in last year’s tournament. No. 9 seed Florida State beat No. 4 seed Gonzaga 75-60 as a 6-point dog.

There were 9 guys in that game for the Seminoles who played 14 or more minutes and 7 of those are back this year.  Florida State’s defense was instrumental in the win, as they held Gonzaga to just 34% shooting. They are really strong on that side of the ball again this year. They just held Morant and Murray State to 62 points on 33% shooting. The same Murray State team that put up 83 on 54% just 2 days earlier in a win over Marquette.  

There’s no doubt in my mind that the Seminoles coaches and players are aware of the line for this game. I don’t think they will have any beef with being the underdog, but this line suggests that these two teams aren’t even close in terms of talent. I love when the better team is the one playing with a chip on their shoulder. Give me Florida State +8

40* NCAA TOURN LATE NIGHT ATS MASSACRE (Oregon -4.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Ducks laying the short number against the Anteaters. UC-Irvine pulled off the upset of Kansas State in the first round, but that was a Wildcats team that lost their mojo and one of their best players late in the season. Anteaters come in having won 17 straight and that's worth noting, as teams seeded 13-16 in the NCAA Tournament, who are underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 and have won 5 or more consecutive games are just 19-48 (28%) ATS since 1997. Oregon has been playing outstanding basketball and are 100% locked in on the defensive side of the ball. While all the other Big Ten teams were advancing, the Ducks annihilated Wisconsin 72-54. Give me Oregon -4.5! 

50* NCAA TOURN SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Virginia Tech -8) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Hokies blowing out the Flames. I'm just not reading too much into the Liberty upset over Mississippi State. Flames shot lights out and had a guy go off that barely averages 13 ppg on the season. This is also a much better Virginia Tech team than people realize. Hokies have multiple NBA talent level players and just got back their senior leader at point guard. Give me Virginia Tech -8. 

40* NCAA TOURN VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Washington +12) 

I'll take my chances here with the Huskies covering as a double-digit dog against the Tar Heels. Washington plays a very effective zone defense and ranks 17th in the country in defensive efficiency. UNC isn't a great 3-point shooting team and I think they could have a hard time getting into a rhythm in this one. I don't think it will be enough for the Huskies to get the win, but I do like them to make a game of it and keep it within single digits. Bet Washington +12! 

40* NCAA TOURN PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Auburn -2) 

I'll take my chances here with Auburn advancing past the Jayhawks and on to the Sweet 16. Auburn won by just 1-point over New Mexico State, failing to cover as a 6-point favorite. However, they had that game in the bag and let the Aggies back in it late. I think that has Auburn undervalued here, especially with how good KU looked in their 34-point win over Northeastern. I just think Auburn is a tough team to play on short rest and the Tigers are simply the better team. Give me Auburn -2! 

50* NCAA TOURN VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Minnesota +10.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Gophers as a double-digit dog against the Spartans. Minnesota was impressive in Thursday's drubbing of Louisville. Gophers shot lights out in Des Moines and a big reason for that is it had to feel like a home game with all the Minnesota fans that made the short drive down for the game. I expect the same thing here. While Gophers looked great, Michigan State won by 11 over Bradly, but that was a dog fight 90% of that game. I think the loss of Kyle Ahrens is bigger than people are making it out to be. Give me Minnesota +10.5! 

40* NCAA TOURN BLOCKBUSTER ATS SLAUGHTER (Michigan -6) 

I'll take my chances here with the Wolverines laying the 6 against the Gators. Michigan impressed in their opening round win against Montana, as that Grizzlies team is better than people think. Florida upset Nevada, but after watching that game the Gators should have never been a dog. Wolf Pack really gave that game away with their sloppy play and poor shot selection. Michigan always play their best when it matters the most and they are extremely tough to prepare for on just 1-day of prep. Give me the Wolverines -6! 

50* NCAA 1ST ROUND TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 126.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Friday's matchup between Virginia Tech and St. Louis. I don't think either of these two teams are going to find it easy to score, as both of these teams are built on their defense. Both rank in the Top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency. St Louis also likes to grind things out and limit the number of possessions, which is ideal for unders. It's why the UNDER has cashed in 37 of the last 54 non-conference games for the Billikens. Give me the UNDER 126.5! 

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Mississippi St -6) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs covering the 6-point spread against the Flames. I love No. 12 over a No. 5 upset as everyone else, but I don't think it's happening here. Mississippi State is hands down the better team and will have no problem here winning by double-digits. Liberty lost to two SEC teams in Alabama and Vanderbilt by more than this number, including a 9-point loss to a Commodores team that didn't win a single game in the SEC. Mississippi State won by 16 on the road in their only meeting against Vanderbilt. Give me Mississippi State -6! 

50* NCAA TOURN VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Houston -12) 

I'll gladly take my chances with Houston. While I think most people are aware of what Houston had done, but I don't think the majority understand just how good this team is. The Cougars rank 19th in offensive efficiency and 15th in defensive efficiency. Georgia State in comparison ranks 102nd in offensive efficiency and 143rd in defensive efficiency. 

One thing that Georgia State does well is shoot the 3-pointer, but that's a big problem. Houston ranks 3rd in 3-point percentage D. I just think that this is going to be a blowout right from the start. Give me Houston -12! 

40* NCAAB UNDERDOG ATS SHOCKER (Colgate +17.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Raiders keeping this thing closer than expected against the Vols. Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting a win here for Colgate, but I think they can keep this close. 

That's because the Raiders can effectively score the basketball and are really good from behind the 3-point line. All five of Colgate's starters can shoot the 3. The worst of the bunch is Tucker Richardson and he shoots 36%. Tennessee only had 3 guys who play significant minutes that shoot better than Richardson. The Raiders will use the long ball to keep this close and the backdoor will be wide open if it comes to that. Give me Colgate +17.5! 

40* MARCH MADNESS ATS MASSACRE (Texas Tech -12.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Red Raiders making easy work of the Norse. Texas Tech is better than people think. The surprising loss to West Virginia in the Big 12 Tournament is the only reason they aren't getting more love. 

I'm confident that was more of them just not taking that game all that seriously, as they had beat West Virginia by 31 in the most recent meeting between the two. They had also won 9 straight prior to that upset, so it's not like that was a continuation of bad play. The fact that this team stood toe-to-toe with Duke in non-conference lets me know they are for real. Give me the Red Raiders -12.5! 

50* NCAA TOURN LATE NIGHT SHARP TOP PLAY (Montana +15) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Grizzlies covering the 15 against the Wolverines in the opening round. It's not suppose to happen, but the NCAA Tournament made a mistake and for the second straight year the same two teams will play in the 1st round of the tournament. Michigan won the meeting last year, but only by 14 points and it was a mere 3-point game at the half. 

That was also the same Wolverines team that made it all the way to the title game. I just this year's Michigan team is down a few notches from last year's squad, while Montana is a better version of themselves. Grizzlies did bring back their top 3 guys and 4 starters overall from last year's team. They also have one of the best coaches no one knowns about in Travis DeCuire. 

One thing that I really like is Michigan is not a team likes to push the pace, which is really what Montana struggles with. Grizzlies would prefer it be a half-court game. That's what their offense excels against. 

Another thing is Michigan offense is pretty unique and I think it's really tough on teams that haven't seen it before, which could be why they have had so much success in the Big Dance. Montana won't be caught by surprise. 

Lastly, I really don't like the mental state of Michigan after they blew yet another game against in-state rival Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament. It might not be pretty, but I think Montana keeps this thing a lot closer than expected. Give me the Grizzlies +15! 

40* NCAA TOURNAMENT SOUTH REGION ATS MASSACRE (Villanova -4.5) 

*Analysis Coming* 

50* NCAA TOURN 1ST ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR (Nevada -2) 

I'll gladly lay a mere 2-point with Nevada against a Florida team that I'm not so sure deserves to be in the field of 68. Florida was just 9-9 in the SEC and outside of a couple of wins over LSU, they really struggled against the top teams in the conference. They lost by 21 to FSU, were outplayed at home by Michigan State and lost to the likes of Butler and Oklahoma.

On the flip side of this, I think Nevada is one of the best kept secrets in the country. Very few have any idea that this team was ranked in the Top 25 all season long. They were No. 16 in the BPI, No. 18 in the new NET ranking and No. 23 in Kenpom, which tells me they are a lot closer to a 5-seed. 

Nevada is also a team that lost out on a trip to the Elite 8 in the final seconds against Loyola-Chicago. They have an all senior lineup that consists of 5 different transfers. They are a very athletic bunch that has plenty of size (all 5 starters is 6'7 or taller). Look for Nevada to get a lot of freebies in this one. Wolf Pack rank 19th in free throw rate, while Florida has the 310th ranked free throw rate D. 

Gators rely on turnovers. Ranke 11th in TO percentage D. That's really negated here, as Nevada has the 9th ranked TO percentage on offense. Only reason Nevada isn't a better seed and not a bigger favorite is the non-conference schedule wasn't overly challenging. Still they didn't lose a single game out of conference. Give me Nevada -2! 

40* NCAA TOURN PUBLIC ATS BLOODBATH (Northeastern +6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Northeastern covering the 6.5-points against the Jayhawks, as I really think the Huskies are capable of pulling off the upset. It's no secret that this is not the best Kansas team Bill Self has fielded in his time at Lawrence. Jayhawks failed to win the Big 12 regular-season title for the first time in forever, have lost multiple key players to injury or other reasons. 

Where Kansas really struggles is on the defensive end, especially at defending the 3-point shot. They ranked 136th in 3-point percentage D. Northeastern can light you up from downtown. Huskies have 3 different guys that are shooting better than 40% from behind the line and rank 15th in the country in 3-point percentage. 

This is also a veteran Northeastern team and I think that experience will really pay off big for this team against a young and short-handed KU squad. Not to mention the CAA has had it's share of teams from that conference who have played well in this thing. There's a reason why the Jayhawks aren't a bigger favorite here. Give me Northeastern +6.5! 

40* NCAA TOURN MIDWEST REGION NO-BRAINER (Auburn -5.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Auburn at this price all day. I think people are really sleeping on this Tigers team, which is kinda shocking given they just won the SEC Tournament, taking down No. 2 seed Tennessee by 20 in the title game.  

Auburn comes in having won 8 straight and there's no doubt they are playing their best basketball of the season at the perfect time. I not only think they cover the spread in route to a victory over New Mexico State, but this is a team I have picked to make the Elite 8 and wouldn't be shocked if they found their way to Minneapolis. 

Auburn is a very difficult team to prepare for. They really create chaos on the court for their opposition, as they were No. 1 in the country in defensive turnover rate. They not only get a lot of steals, but they protect the rim with a ton of blocks down low. Offensively this team likes to shoot 3-pointers and ranked 27th in 3-point percentage. Offensive as a whole was 12th in offensive efficiency. 

Props to New Mexico State for ending the year on a 19-game winning streak and making easy work of the WAC. I think it has the getting too much respect. Aggies lost 73-58 at home to a pretty average St. Mary's team, only beat Pac-12 bottom feeder Washington State by 6 at home. Their biggest claim to fame is a mere 3-point loss at Kansas, but Jayhawks had a big lookahead game against Villanova and had just played a good Wofford team. 

Also there were 9 times during their 19-game winning streak where they won by single-digits. Auburns only non-conference losses were a 6-point neutral site defeat to Duke and a road loss at NC State. They really had their way with everyone else and I expect the same here. Give me the Tigers -5.5! 

50* NIT VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Nebraska -4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Nebraska laying the small number at home against the Bulldogs. I think the public perception here is that the rumors regarding Fred Hoiberg will have a negative impact on this team. I think it will have the opposite. I think they come out inspired to send out their current head coach, Tim Miles, out in fashion. This is a Nebraska team that won 3 of their final 4 games, which included two victories over NCAA Tournament teams in Iowa and Maryland, as well as a mere 4-point loss to Wisconsin and they were playing their 3rd game in 3 days vs the Badgers (Wisconsin had a double-bye). Butler lost 5 of their last 6 and were just 4-9 in their final 13 games. Give me Nebraska -4.5! 

40* NIT VEGAS ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (Hofstra +9.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Pride as a near double-digit dog. The NIT has a lot of quality teams in it, but what people forget to factor in is whether or not teams actually are motivated to do well in it. Teams that were on the bubble and felt like they should have made the NCAA Tournament and ended up getting left out, often struggled to play well in this one, especially out of the gate. Hofstra is no joke of an opponent. This team only lost by 11 at Maryland and 2 at VCU in non-conference. Even if NC State was 100% locked in, I think the Pride could cover this number and given the spot I wouldn't be shocked if they won outright. Give me Hofstra +9.5! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Michigan -104) 

I'll take my chances here with the Wolverines on the money line in the Big Ten title game. I know the Spartans won both meetings in the regular-season, but that actually has me liking Michigan that much more in this one. The most recent meeting was at Michigan State, which the Spartans won by 12 and that's worth noting, as the Wolverines have covered 6 straight when revenging a road loss of 10 or more. Give me Michigan -104! 

40* NCAAB LATE NIGHT ATS MASSACRE (Washington +2) 

I'll take my chances here with Washington as a dog against the Ducks. No way should the Huskies be getting points in this one.  Sure Oregon just won on the road at Washington late in the year, but they were the team with something to play for, as the Huskies had already beat the Ducks and had the Pac-12 title on lockdown. Washington has been the best team in the conference all season and are a  dominant 13-4 ATS last 17 when coming off back-to-back wins. Give me the Huskies +2! 

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Villanova -3.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Villanova laying a small number in the Big East title game against Seton Hall. Villanova got revenge from a late season loss to Xavier on Friday, as they took down the Musketeers 71-67. Now it's time to get their revenge from a late season loss at Seton Hall (79-75). Wildcats are a ridiculous 17-3 ATS last 20 games played on a neutral site and 14-3 ATS last 17 tournament games. Give me Villanova -3.5!