At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Dallas/Washington game.  These two teams met earlier this season and scored 52 combined points in a Cowboys 33-19 victory.  That game continued the trend in this series where the game has gone 'over' the posted total (now 4-0 'over' since 2016).  Indeed, the last two games here at AT & T Stadium each generated 57 points.  And Washington's currently 7-0 'over' the total on the road vs. division rivals.  Of course, it's true that the Cowboys have played four straight 'unders' since that 33-19 game vs. Washington, and have scored just 50 points combined over those four games (including a 28-6 loss on Thanksgiving to the Chargers).  But NFL teams off 4+ unders, that scored less than 13 points in their previous game, have gone 'over' the total 59% since 1980.  Take the 'over.'  NFC East Total of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over Houston.  Baltimore's 5-5 on the season after shutting out Green Bay, 23-0, at Lambeau Field last week, while Houston comes in with a losing record, at 4-6.  The Ravens return home to M&T Bank Stadium after being on the road for their two previous games, but they did blow out the Dolphins, 40-0, in their last game here in Baltimore.  I look for another home victory on Monday, as NFL teams with a better record than their opponent have gone 45-7 SU and 38-12-2 ATS at home on Monday Nights, if they were on the road in their two previous games.  And Baltimore's 22-1 SU and 20-3 ATS as a home favorite since 1995 off a win by more than 18 points.  Lay it.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over New Orleans.  The Saints are off eight straight wins, and have scored 30+ points in each of their last three games, while the Rams come in off a loss to the Vikings.  But the Saints should get blown out this afternoon, as NFL road underdogs off 3+ wins, in which they scored 30+ points in each of those three games, have lost 78% ATS vs. non-division foes in the regular season since 1980.  Even better:  the Rams lost last season to New Orleans, 49-21.  But NFL teams off a straight-up loss, and playing with revenge, have cashed 78% since 1983 if they were favored (or PK), and gave up 44+ points to its opponent in the previous meeting!  Take the Rams.  NFL Payback Payday!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the 'Over' in the San Diego/Dallas game.  The Chargers erupted for 54 points last week, in a 54-24 blowout of the Buffalo Bills.  They'll now travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys, and I foresee another relatively high-scoring game on Thursday.  Dallas is giving up over 24 points per game, and the Chargers have gone 'over' in 30 of 46 road games vs. foes that surrender at least 24 ppg.  The last nine Dallas Cowboys games have also AVERAGED 51.33 points.  Take the 'Over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Minnesota.  The Vikings have won and covered each of their last five games.  And they've scored 24+ points in the last four of those.  But this win streak sets up our play against Minnesota on this Thanksgiving, as unrested NFL road teams off 4 SU/ATS wins in which they scored 24+ points in each game, have gone just 36% ATS since 1980 vs. .500 (or better) teams.  Even worse for Minnesota:  it's just 22-46 ATS as a road favorite of -3+ points, and has lost the last three meetings (both SU and ATS) in this series.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks over the Atlanta Falcons.  These two teams met in last year's NFL Playoffs, and the Falcons blew out the Seahawks, 36-20, as a 6.5-point home favorite.  But I love the Seahawks to avenge that defeat, as teams playing on Monday Night Football with revenge from a Playoff defeat the previous season have cashed 79% since 1999, including a perfect 9-0 ATS vs. foes with W/L records between .250 and .750.  Additionally, Seattle is 82-28 SU and 67-38-5 ATS at home since 2005, including 5-1-2 ATS on Monday Nights, and 16-8-1 ATS with revenge.  Finally, Atlanta is an awful 0-9 ATS when not laying 3+ points against a winning team, if its foe is playing with revenge.  Take Seattle.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over the New England Patriots.  Bill Belichick's men won by 25 points last week.  And that blowout victory has triggered an angle of mine which fades defending Super Bowl champions off 20-point (or greater) wins.  Since 1980, they've covered just 41% in this situation, including 2-13 ATS when priced from -3.5 to -7.5 points away from home.  Take the Raiders.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos minus the points over Cincinnati.  The Broncos are on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak, and have failed to cover the spread by 21 and 18 points in their previous two games.  But it must be noted that the Broncos' last three games were played against three of the very best teams in the league (Philadelphia, New England and Kansas City).  In contrast, Cincinnati has also been playing extremely poorly.  It is 1-3 SU/ATS in its last four games, but has not played an overly difficult schedule.  Indeed, Cincy's only win in its last four games was by a single point vs. Indianapolis, as an 11-point favorite.  And the Bengals' only pointspread cover was also by a single point -- last week at Tennessee.  Denver's recent failures have worked to create terrific betting value in this game, and the Broncos fall into a 105-53 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams on ATS losing streaks.  Lay the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins + the points over New Orleans.  The Saints have won and covered seven straight games.  And Drew Brees & Co. are getting it done both on the offensive side, as well as the defensive.  New Orleans is scoring 29.8 points per game, and giving up just 18.3.  And its defense has been especially stellar the past three weeks.  Last Sunday, New Orleans held the Bills to 10 points.  And it defeated the Buccaneers (30-10) and Bears (20-12) in the two weeks prior to that.  Unfortunately, for New Orleans, single-digit favorites that held each of their last three opponents to less than 13 points have covered just 26% in the regular season since 1980 vs. .363 (or better) foes, including 1-14 ATS their last 15.  Take the Redskins.  NFL Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans over the Arizona Cardinals.  Both of these teams are dealing with major injuries at the quarterback position.  Houston's Deshaun Watson is out with a knee injury, while Arizona's Carson Palmer broke his left arm, and 2nd string QB Drew Stanton sustained an injury last week to his knee.  Thus, the Cards will turn to 3rd stringer Blaine Gabbert, while Houston will use erstwhile starter Tom Savage.  We'll take the homestanding Texans, as they fall into 155-85 and 139-61 ATS systems of mine that are based on season statistics.  Also, Houston lost 33-7 last Sunday at the LA Rams.  And NFL home teams off a loss by 23+ points are 82.1% ATS over the past 17 years vs. .416 (or better) non-division foes also off a loss, provided our home team is not favored by 2.5+ points.  Take Houston. NFL Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Jacksonville.  The Browns may be 0-9 on the season, but they've actually been much more competitive against the pointspread of late.  Last week, they reached the 4-yard line with a great opportunity to cover the spread in the game's final minute, but turned the ball over.  Still, they only failed to cover the spread by 3.5 points.  The previous week, they also failed to cover -- by 6 points -- so they were within one score.  And three games ago, they did cover the spread by 2.5 points.  This week, they're getting a sizable amount of points at home, and we'll grab all we can with Cleveland, as winless home dogs of +7.5 or more points have gone 37-16 ATS if their record was 0-7 (or worse).  Take the Browns.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'Over' in the Los Angeles Chargers/Jacksonville Jaguars game.  The Jaguars have the league's best defense, and have held five of their eight opponents this season to less than 10 points (including Indy and Cincy in their last two games).   And, yes, it's true that neither of the Jaguars' last two games totaled more than 30 points.  But NFL teams have gone 'over' the total more often than not after playing two straight games that didn't total more than 30 points.  Interestingly, this will be the fourth meeting in the last four seasons between these two teams.  And each of the previous three meetings sailed 'over' the total, with an average of 51.67 ppg.  Moreover, the Chargers haven't scored less than 10 points in any of their last 27 games.  And they've averaged 23.33 ppg over this 27-game span.  So, I believe Philip Rivers & Co. will be able to put up some points on the Jags' #1-rated defense.  The OVER also falls into 82-53 and 99-68 systems of mine.  This will be a relatively high-scoring game.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Total of the Month!  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders minus the points over the Miami Dolphins.  Both of these teams come into this game off blowout losses:  Oakland fell, 34-14, at Buffalo, while Miami was annihilated by Baltimore, 40-0.  The Raiders now sit at 3-5 on the season, yet have been installed as a road favorite at 4-3 Miami.  We'll lay the points with Oakland as road favorites of -3+ points that have a worse record than their opponent, have covered 68.1% in the regular season (at Game 8 forward) over the past 17 years.  Additionally, Miami's an awful 31-64 ATS at home when not getting 4.5 or more points, including 12-40 ATS if the Dolphins' W/L percentage wasn't worse than their opponent's.  Take Oakland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Indianapolis Colts/Houston Texans game, as it falls into an 89-54 Totals system of mine.  The Texans started the year with QB Tom Savage under center, and lost on Opening Day, 29-7, to the Jaguars.  Savage lasted just 30 minutes before being replaced by Deshaun Watson, and the Texans were shut out in his 30 minutes of football.  With Watson as quarterback, the Texans' offense had hummed, as it scored 33, 57, 34, 33 and 38 points in Houston's last five games.  Unfortunately, he's out of the season, after sustaining an ACL injury in practice on Thursday.  So, the Texans will once again turn to Savage to lead the offense.  I look for a low-scoring game, as Indianapolis is offensively-challenged this season with its QB, Andrew Luck, sidelined, as it ranks just 25th in points scored (142).  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over New Orleans.  These two teams are going in opposite directions, as Tampa Bay is 2-5, and is on an 0-5-1 ATS losing streak, while New Orleans is 5-2, and has covered its last five games.  Of course, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the "hot" Saints, and against the "cold" Bucs.  But (as faithful followers might guess), that generally would be the wrong move.  Indeed, since 1980, NFL favorites off 5+ ATS wins have covered just 16% ATS vs. foes off 5+ ATS losses!  Also, New Orleans is a dreadful 39-78 ATS at home when not getting 6+ points, if they're playing an opponent off a SU loss (including 11-34 ATS vs. division rivals).  Take the Buccaneers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Philly.  It's true that the Eagles are red-hot, with six straight wins and five straight covers, including 34-24 and 33-10 blowout wins in their last two games.  And it's also true that Denver's offense has faltered lately, with three straight losses by scores of 23-10, 21-0, and 29-19.  But such streaks often create value in going against the hot team.  And Philly falls into a negative 40% ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams on 6-game win streaks (and 3-game ATS wins streaks).  And NFL teams off back to back losses where they scored 23 or less points combined in their previous two games, are a solid 65-42 ATS as underdogs vs. foes off 2 wins that scored 58+ points combined in those two victories.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over Jacksonville.  These two teams each played the Colts in their last game.  Jacksonville defeated Indy two weeks ago, 27-0 (and then had a Bye week), while Cincy barely got by Indy last Sunday, 24-23.  The fact that Cincy struggled vs. Indy, while Jacksonville blew Indy out has motivated a lot of bettors to plunk down money on the Jaguars this week.  But we'll go the other way, and take the points with the Bengals.  Indeed, the Jaguars have only been favored by more than three points once this season.  It was at the NY Jets, and we took the points with the Jets that game, and cashed when the Jets covered.  Moreover, the last time the Jaguars have been favored by this many points was December 26, 2010 -- almost 7 years ago -- and they lost outright to the Redskins!  And Jacksonville is 0-7 ATS its last seven when favored by 6+ points.  Take Cincy.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over Houston.  Deshaun Watson sustained a season-ending ACL injury in practice, on Thursday, so ex-Pitt Panther QB Tom Savage will get the start for Houston.  Savage actually started on Opening Day vs. Jacksonville, and was sacked six times in the first half, before giving way to Watson in the 2nd half.  His stats in that half of football were 7-for-13, for 62 yards passing, and two fumbles!  Houston was scoreless in that first half (and ended up losing, 29-7).  That doesn't bode well for the Texans on Sunday.  And the Colts also fall into a 236-147 ATS sytem of mine.  Take Indianapolis.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the NY Giants + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  The Rams weren't expected to be this good, while the Giants weren't expected to be this bad.  But the NFL is often a topsy-turvy league, so here we are, in Week 9, and the Rams are favored on the road vs. New York.  But the last time the Rams were favored by this many points on the road was over 12 years ago -- September 11, 2005 -- when the laid 7 points to San Francisco.  And they lost outright, 28-25.  Indeed, the Rams have lost outright each of the last three times they were installed as a road favorite of -4+ points (including once as a 12-point favorite).  And they're 3-12 ATS when priced as a favorite (whether at home or on the road) of -3 to -6 points.  Finally, rested home dogs (like New York) with a .333 (or worse) W/L percentage, are a super 47-27 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes.  Take the Giants.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Denver/Kansas City game.  Last week, in a Thursday game, the Kansas City Chiefs lost a heartbreaker to the Oakland Raiders, 31-30.  The Chiefs were winning, 30-24, but succumbed on the game's final play, a 2-yard touchdown pass from Derek Carr to Michael Crabtree.  That was Kansas City's 2nd straight upset loss, as Pittsburgh stunned it, 19-13, here at Arrowhead 15 days ago.  So, the Chiefs are now 5-2 on the season.  Likewise, the Broncos also suffered their 2nd straight upset defeat, as they lost, 21-0, at the Chargers last weekend.  I expect a high-scoring game tonight, as .700 (or better) teams have gone 'over' the total 65.5% over the past 28 years, if they're off an upset loss, and scored 28+ points in that defeat.  Also, these two teams met twice last season, and both games went 'over' the total, by 17 and 5 points, respectively.  And since 2001, 11 of the 16 meetings here in Kansas City have gone 'over.'  Look for this game to sail 'over' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Pittsburgh.   This Sunday night matchup features two teams with Playoff aspirations.  The Detroit Lions are 3-3, while the Pittsburgh Steelers are 5-2.  And I certainly have all the confidence in the Steelers, as they were my preseason pick (at 12-1 odds) to win this year's Super Bowl.  But this is a great spot to go against them as a road favorite at Detroit.  The Lions do come into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses, but gained an advantage by having last week off to rest, and re-group.  And rested underdogs off a loss have cashed over 57% vs. unrested foes off a win since 1991.  Likewise, in matchups between non-losing teams, it's been extremely profitable (67.5%) over the years to take a team off back to back SU/ATS losses vs. a foe off back to back SU/ATS wins, so that also bodes well for Jim Caldwell's crew on Sunday.  But the clincher for me is that Detroit has covered the pointspread by an average of 4.5 ppg this season, while the Steelers have failed to cover by an average of 0.85 ppg.  And home underdogs off a SU/ATS loss have cashed a staggering 63% of the time over the past 38 years if they also owned an average pointspread differential of +4.29 (or better).  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over the Buffalo Bills, as Oakland falls into 145-67, 23-0 and 63-18 ATS systems of mine, based on various season statistics.  The Raiders are sitting on a losing, 3-4 record, in no small part due to an injury suffered by QB Derek Carr earlier this season.  But Carr is healthy, and back under center now.  And he led the Raiders to a thrilling, last-second win last Thursday vs. division rival, Kansas City.  Oakland still has much work to do if it is to get back into the Playoff picture, so it needs to go into Buffalo and get the upset win.  I believe it will, as Oakland is 28-17-1 ATS its last 46 as road underdogs, while Buffalo is a wallet-busting 7-21 ATS at home off a win, including 1-9 ATS vs. non-winning teams.  Take the points with Oakland.  NFL Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over Cincinnati.  Last week, the Colts were blown out, 27-0, at home by Jacksonville, while Cincy lost, 29-14, at Pittsburgh.  That 27-0 defeat, though, has triggered my very best "Blowout Bounce-back" system, which is 138-61 ATS since 1980 -- and 5-0 already this season, including a win two weeks ago on the Cardinals over the Bucs after Arizona was blown out by 27 in Philly the previous week.  For the season, the Colts are 2-5, and are certainly in the league's lower tier so long as QB Andrew Luck remains sidelined.  But they generally rebounc off losses, as they're 3-1 ATS already this season off a loss, and 29-9 ATS off their last 38 defeats (including a perfect 7-0 ATS when getting more than 6 points)!  Finally, NFL teams also tend to react well to being shutout at home in their previous games, as they're 57-36-2 ATS in that situation since 1980, including 33-9 ATS vs. non-division foes if our team isn't getting 13+ points.  Take the Colts.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 am, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Minnesota Vikings.  We played on the Browns last week, as a home underdog vs. Tennessee, and got the cash when Cleveland fell, 12-9, in overtime, as a 6-point dog.  This week, the Browns have been installed as an even bigger underdog vs. the Vikings, in this early game played in London, England.  In the NFL, it's extremely dangerous to lay this many points away from home.  Indeed, since 1995, NFL underdogs of +9 or more points have covered 61% of the time (107-69 ATS) at home, or on neutral fields, including 26-16 ATS if our underdog is (like Cleveland) winless on the season.  That doesn't bode well for Minnesota on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that the Vikings have covered just 32 of 90 when favored by 7+ points in the regular season.  Take Cleveland + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over New England.  These two teams met in last year's Super Bowl, and the Falcons absolutely blew the game, as they were up 28-3, but lost 34-28.  We had a big play on New England in that game, but we'll switch gears and take the points with the Falcons in this re-match.  Certainly, this is the most important game on the Falcons' schedule this season, as they no doubt want to avenge that stunning defeat.  And I believe they'll get it, as they fall into a 19-0 ATS Playoff revenge system of mine (the same angle I used as a basis for my play earlier this season on the Houston Texans +13.5 over New England).  Also, underdogs have cashed 83% when playing an opponent off a win, which defeated them in the Super Bowl in the previous meeting between the two teams.  Even better for Atlanta:  it falls into 87-34 and 151-66 ATS "bounce-back" systems of mine that play on certain teams to rebound off upset losses (Atlanta lost as a 14-point favorite to Miami last week).  Finally, road teams that lost outright as favorites of -11.5 (or more points) are an awesome 88% ATS since 1986 vs. non-division foes, provided they weren't getting more than 7 points.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Kansas City.  We played against the Chiefs last week, and got the $$$ with Pittsburgh.  And we'll play against them once again, tonight, in Oakland, as the Chiefs fall into negative 115-206, 208-281, 126-20, 156-240 and 67-147 ATS systems of mine.  Additionally, Oakland comes into tonight's game off an upset loss last week vs. the Chargers, and four straight losses overall (both straight-up and ATS).  Now, on the surface, this may not seem like a good thing.  But consider that home teams are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS on Thursday nights off back to back losses, if they were upset in their previous game, and now face a division rival.  Moreover, the Raiders are 25-14-1 ATS as AFC West division dogs off back to back losses, including 14-2 ATS when priced from +2 to + 6 points (and 9-0 ATS if their foe is also off a loss).  Finally, teams off 4 SU/ATS losses have cashed 67.9% the past 18 years if they won at least 10 games in the previous regular season, while teams with a current W/L percentage better than .300 have cashed 63.2% at home off 4 SU/ATS losses.  Take the points with the Raiders.  AFC West Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Indianapolis.  The Titans were upset in each of their last two games -- 57-14 at Houston, and 16-10, at Miami.  But they now return home to take on the Indianapolis Colts, who upended San Francisco last week, 26-23, as a 1-point underdog.  And one of the things I love to do is take favorites of more than 6 points on Monday Night Football that return home off back to back road games.  These teams have cashed 72% since 1980.  Even worse for the Colts:  they're a poor 35.7% ATS off an upset win vs. foes off an upset loss.  Take Tennessee minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over Kansas City.  The Chiefs have played superb football this season, as they're 5-0 SU and ATS (covering by an average of 9.1 ppg), including an opening week win at New England.  Pittsburgh, in contrast, has had an up-and-down season, as it's 3-2 SU, but 2-3 ATS (failing to cover by an average of 5.3 ppg), including a head-scratching home loss to Jacksonville last week.  In that game, The Steelers were favored by 7.5, but lost 30-9 to the Jaguars, so they failed to cover the spread by a whopping 28.5 points.  For the season, the Chiefs, then, have a pointspread differential of +14.4 compared to the Steelers.  But this strong relative success sets up our play, as the Steelers fall into a 79-33-2 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams with a poor pointspread differential, as well as a 21-0 ATS subset of that general angle (which hasn't lost since 1992).  Finally, the Steelers are 8-0-1 ATS when priced between +7 and -3 points after giving up 28+ points in their previous game.  Take the Steelers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over the Jacksonville Jaguars.  The Rams were upset at home last week by Seattle, and fell to 3-2 on the season.  Meanwhile, the Jaguars upset Pittsburgh, 30-9, as a 7.5-point underdog in their previous game, and also have a 3-2 record this year.  But that upset win has set up Jacksonville in several negative systems of mine, with records of 48-92 and 49-91 ATS since 1980.  Even worse for Jacksonville:  it's covered just 9 of 28 off upset wins since 2008, including five of 18 at home.  Finally, .600 (or better) teams off upset losses have cashed 60.3% over the last 38 years vs. .600 (or better) foes off upset wins.  Take the Rams + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over Tampa Bay.  The Cardinals have started the season 2-3, and were blown out by 27 points in their last game by Philadelphia, 34-7.  But one of the things I like to do in the NFL is play on home underdogs off blowout losses.  Indeed, we saw on Monday night the Chicago Bears rebound off their 21-point loss to Green Bay to cover the number as a home dog vs. Minnesota.  And, since 1980, teams off a loss by more than 20 points have gone 74-49 ATS as home underdogs if their opponent is also off a straight-up and against the spread loss.  Also, I don’t believe Tampa Bay’s performance warrants that it be favored on the road.  After all, it’s lost its last three games against the spread, and is just 2-2 straight-up this season.  And the Buccaneers have covered just four of their last 18 games when favored on the road.  Meanwhile, Arizona is 31-17 ATS its last 48 as home underdogs.  Take the Cardinals.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Houston.  It's true that the Browns are winless on the season.  But winless teams often confer value, and that's the case on this Sunday.  Indeed, since 1980, winless teams, with an 0-5 (or worse) record, are 63% ATS vs. foes that have a win percentage better than .250, provided our winless team didn't cover the pointspread in its previous game.  With the Browns off a SU/ATS loss to the Jets last week to fall to 0-5 this season, we'll grab the points in this game.  Take Cleveland.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Green Bay/Minnesota game.  With Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, the Green Bay Packers have gone 'over' the total more often than not.  But the one situation where they've consistently gone 'under' has been on the road vs. division rivals.  And especially when the over/under line has been between 40.5 and 45.5 points.  In that range, Green Bay has gone 'under' in 10 of 11 vs. NFC North rivals on the road.  Indeed, the last three games at Minnesota have all gone 'under' the total (with the games from the last two seasons also falling within our O/U range of 40.5 to 45.5 points).  Last season, Rodgers passed for a pedestrian 213 yards, and threw one interception in a 17-14 defeat.  Green Bay did win the previous two seasons (30-13 and 24-21), but neither game was particularly high-scoring, and each also went 'under' the posted total.  I love the 'under once again in this game, as it falls into an 87-53 Totals system of mine.  Also, Minnesota has gone 'under' the total in 16 of 20 games off a win, including 12-1 'under' vs. foes with a W/L percentage of .571 (or better).  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over Minnesota.  Last week, both the Vikings and Bears lost, as Minnesota was upset by Detroit, 14-7, while Chicago lost, 35-14, to Green Bay.  Chicago's now 1-3, so coach John Fox has decided to make a change at signal caller.  Thus, the Mitch Trubisky Era will start tonight at Soldier Field, and  I love Chicago in a home dog role, as it falls into a 136-61 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off losses by 20+ points.  Even worse for Minnesota:  .500 (or better) teams off an upset loss have cashed just 35.4% on Monday nights the past 38 seasons.  And the Bears are 25-7 ATS as a home dog (or PK) off a loss by 6+ points, if the Bears' win pct was less than .400.  Also, NFC North Division underdogs have cashed 64 of 107 division games off a loss.  Finally, the Vikings are a woeful 4-16 ATS at Chicago when not getting more than 3 points, including 0-9 ATS if the Vikings weren't off a SU/ATS win.  Take Chicago.  MNF Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Los Angeles Rams/Seattle Seahawks game.  The Rams have been a surprising offensive team this season, as they're averaging 35.5 points per game (after averaging just 14 ppg last season).  But the four teams that Los Angeles has played this year are giving up, on average, 26 points per game.  Seattle, on the other hand, will be the best defense the Rams have faced yet, as it's giving up just 19.25 ppg.  Over the previous seven seasons, 11 of the 14 meetings between these teams have gone 'under' the total.  And the 'under' also falls into a super 86-53 Totals system of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Baltimore/Oakland game, as it falls into a great Totals system of mine which has cashed 73.3% since 1980.  Additionally, Oakland has gone 'over' the total 21-6-2 in its last 29 home games, including 6-0 its last six, and also a perfect 10-0-2 'over' when priced from 40.5 to 44 points.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Miami/Tennessee game, as it falls into 59-27, 108-69 and 152-102 Totals systems of mine.  It's true that Miami's offense struggled last week, as it was shutout, 20-0, by New Orleans, and is averaging just 8.3 ppg.  But Miami should find the sledding easier against Tennessee.  After all, the Titans gave up more points (57) last week than any other team has given up in almost 5 years!  And that was against a Texans team which had averaged just 17.6 ppg coming into the game.  So, when viewed in that context, it was the most points any team had given up in 21 years vs. a team that averaged less than 18 ppg!  And, for additional technical support, consider that NFL teams (like Miami) have gone 'over' the total 70.2% since 1980 if they don't average more than 10 ppg on offense, and have gone 'under' the total in their 3 previous games.  Finally, seven of Miami's last eight home games, and nine of Tennessee's last 12 road games have sailed 'over' the total.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Total of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over the Buffalo Bills.  Last week, the Bills upset the previously undefeated Atlanta Falcons, 23-17, as an 8 point underdog.  That moved the Bills' record to 3-1 on the season.  But off that upset win, I look for a letdown in Cincy on Sunday.  Indeed, since 1981, .680 (or better) teams off an upset win on the road as an 8-point (or greater) underdog have cashed an atrocious 15% of the time on the road.  That doesn't bode well for the Bills on Sunday.  And neither does the fact that Buffalo is 1-9 ATS as an underdog of 6 points or less off a win as a dog of more than 3 points.  Finally, Cincy is 27-10 ATS when priced between +3 and -9.5 at home vs. a foe off an upset win, including 7-0 ATS if such foe was a dog of more than 6 points in its previous game.  Take the Bengals.  NFL Roadkill Play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over the New York Giants.  It's absolutely correct that the Chargers have burned money this season, as they're 0-4 straight-up, and 0-3-1 ATS.  But their three ATS losses came at home.  However, it's on the road where the Chargers have made friends in Vegas, as they're 44-22-5 ATS their last 71 when not laying 2+ points, including 29-6-4 ATS if the Chargers were not off a SU/ATS win!  Take the Chargers.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns over the New York Jets.  Last week, we played on the Jets as a home underdog vs. Jacksonville, and were rewarded with a 23-20 overtime victory.  That also was New York’s 2nd straight upset win as a home underdog.  Unfortunately, now the Jets go back on the road where they are 0-2 straight-up and against-the-spread this season.  And while it’s true that the Browns were blown out at home by 24 points last week, and have yet to win a game this season, consider that teams off back to back losses are an awesome 77-49 ATS vs. foes off back to back upset wins, including 30-12 ATS at home vs. non-division foes.  Moreover, home teams have also cashed 71% since 1980 off a home loss by 24 or more points when matched up against an opponent off back to back wins.  Take Cleveland.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles, as Arizona falls into a 67% ATS system of mine, which plays on certain road underdogs that didn't cover the pointspread in their previous game.  It's true that Philly is 3-1 on the season, but Arizona is a sensational 44-26 ATS vs. .750 (or better) teams, including 40-22 ATS as an underdog.  Take Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Tampa Bay.  Last week, the Pats lost at home to the Carolina Panthers.  But New England is the league's best franchise at bouncing back off losses.  Indeed, Bill Belichick's crew is 43-7 SU and 37-13 ATS since Dec. 29, 2002 following a defeat (and also fall into 30-0, 35-1 and 29-1 ATS variations of this general angle).  That's one reason to back Tom Brady & Co. on this Thursday.  Another is that defending Super Bowl champs are 19-5 ATS on the road off a loss vs. .615 (or better) foes off a win.  Take New England to blow out the Buccaneers.  NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Washington.  The Chiefs opened this season with a dominant 42-27 win over the defending Super Bowl Champion Patriots, and haven't looked back since.  They're now 3-0 SU and ATS following a win at the Chargers last Sunday.  Some might look for KC to have a letdown, but not me.  Indeed, since 1980, 3-0 NFL teams are 38-5 SU and 31-12 ATS at home vs. non-division foes, including 22-3 ATS if they happen to not be favored by 7+ points, and also 8-1 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take the Chiefs.  NFL Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Denver.  The Raiders were blown out by 17 points on the road at Washington last Sunday night.  And they went into that game as a 3.5-point favorite.  Interestingly, Denver also lost by double-digits on the road as a 3.5-point favorite.  I’ll grab the points with Derek Carr & Co., as AFC West division teams are 120-78 ATS as road underdogs in divisional games off a straight-up loss, including 63-32 ATS if their opponent is also off a loss.  And .666 (or better) teams have cashed 61% as road underdogs since 1980 off a loss by 14 or more points.  Finally, over the past 15 years, the Broncos are a wallet-busting 12-29 ATS as home favorites vs. foe off a loss, including 1-10 ATS if the Broncos are also off a loss.  Take Oakland.  NFL Road Warrior Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Jacksonville.  Last week, the Jaguars played the best game of any team over the past three years, when they won by 37 points (44-7), as a 3 point underdog, and thus covered by 40 points.  Unfortunately for the Jaguars, teams that cover the spread by 40+ points have sustained their ATS success in their next game just 33% of the time since 1989 (and just 21% if they weren't favored by 3+ points in their previous game).  That doesn't bode well for the Jaguars on Sunday.  And neither does the fact that the Jags are just 26.6% since 1999 as road favorites off an upset win.  Take the Jets.  NFL Underdog Shocker.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over the Buffalo Bills.  Last week, the Bills stunned Denver, 26-16, as a 3-point underdog.  But off that upset win, we'll fade the Bills on Sunday, as they fall into a wallet-busting 0-18 ATS system.  What we want to do is play against any winning team, as a dog of more than 7 points, off a home win by more than 8 points, provided they weren't favored by 2+ points in that previous game.  Take Atlanta. NFL Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers + Cincinnati Bengals to go 'over' the total.  The Packers lost WR Jordy Nelson early in last week's 34-23 loss at Atlanta, but Nelson has been a full participant in practice this week, so I expect him to play.  Randall Cobb, on the other hand, has been listed as doubtful.  But with both Nelson and Davante Adams on the field, I look for Green Bay's offense to hum on Sunday.  Indeed, off a loss, with Aaron Rodgers as its starter, Green Bay has averaged 28.57 ppg, and 27 of its 44 games have gone 'over' the total!  That bodes well for a high-scoring game on Sunday.  As does the fact that both of Aaron Rodgers' two previous starts vs. the Bengals have been extremely high-scoring (55 and 64 points).  Finally, Green Bay has gone 'over' the total 41 of 61 home games when priced between -7.5 and -13.5 points.  And the Packers/Bengals 'over' also falls into 58-27, 150-102 and 107-69 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'over.'  Total of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over Tennessee.  The Seahawks have gotten off to a slow start this season.  They lost, 17-9, at Green Bay in Week 1.  And then only scored 12 points vs. a poor San Francisco team last week, but eked out a 12-9 victory.  But we've seen this before with Pete Carroll's squad.  Indeed, just last season, Seattle scored just 15 points over its first two games.  And the previous year, it actually LOST its first two games outright, but still managed to go 10-6 that season.  So, it's not yet time to panic.  And, for technical support, consider that Seattle is an awesome 54-25-2 ATS after failing to score 20+ points in its two previous games, including a perfect 11-0 ATS under coach Carroll!  Additionally, Tennessee falls into negative 23-59 and 48-95 ATS systems of mine.  Take Seattle.  Road Warrior Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over New England.  These two teams met in the Playoffs last season, and the Patriots came away with a 34-16 victory.  And they also whitewashed Houston, 27-0, in the regular season last year.  But we'll grab the points with the Texans, as they fall into an 18-0 ATS Playoff revenge system of mine.  Moreover, New England's defense has greatly fallen off from last year's numbers.  In 2016, it gave up just 15.6 ppg in the regular season.  But through its first two games this season, New England is surrendering 31 ppg.  That certainly augurs poorly for them.  And with respect to this game, it's worth noting that favorites of -9 or more points are a soft 49-80 ATS since 1980 when they give up more than 24 ppg.  Take Houston.  Payback Payday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Atlanta.  The Falcons suffered a brutal loss in last year's Super Bowl, as they collapsed after being up by 25 points over New England.  And, generally speaking, the teams that lost the Super Bowl the previous season have a somewhat difficult time the next year.  So far, Atlanta hasn't shown any ill effects, as it's 2-0 straight-up and 1-1 ATS.  But I expect it to stumble on Sunday, vs. the undefeated Lions.  Indeed, teams that lost the Super Bowl the previous year are a poor 4-27-2 ATS as non-division road favorites priced from PK to -4, including 1-12 ATS if their win percentage was .700 (or better).  Even better:  home underdogs of +3 or more points, with a winning record, off a SU/ATS road win are 64% ATS since 1980 vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take Detroit.  NFL Roadkill. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers to go 'over' the total, as it falls into 57-27 and 106-69 Totals Systems of mine.  The Over/Under line on this game opened at 42, but has dropped considerably since then as a majority of bettors seem to be looking for a low-scoring contest.  It's true that both defenses have played well this season (SF is giving up just 17.5 ppg, while the Rams are allowing 18 ppg).  But I look for a relatively high-scoring game on Thursday, as NFL games have gone 'over' the total 314-231 (57.6) if the defenses of both teams gave up, on average, less than 18.5 ppg, and the over/under line was less than 40 points.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants minus the points over the Detroit Lions.  Last week, the Giants scored just three points in a 19-3 loss at Dallas, while Detrolt put up 35 points in an upset win vs. Arizona.  But I look for the Giants to bounce back at home, tonight, on Monday.  Indeed, losing teams off a straight-up loss, and an ATS defeat by 8+ points, have covered 68% when favored (or PK) vs. winning foes off a straight-up win.  Moreover, the Giants have cashed 67% as home favorites on Monday Night Football the past 34 seasons, while the Lions are an awful 27% the past 23 years on the road off an upset win, including 0-10 ATS if they covered the spread by more than 11 points in their previous game.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Baltimore.  Last week, the Ravens stunned the Bengals, 20-0.  Though that victory was no doubt impressive, the fact that the Houston Texans also embarrassed the Bengals at home, with a 13-9 victory this past Thursday, combined with the firing of Cincy's offensive coordinator, Ken Zampese on Friday, leads me to believe that Baltimore's victory was primarily a result of Cincy's internal problems.  Cleveland, meanwhile, lost by 3 points to the Steelers in Week 1, but covered the point spread.  And I look for the Browns to make it two straight covers in a row today.  It's true that the Ravens won and covered both meetings last season.  Unfortunately, home favorites off an upset division win have covered just 3 of 25 vs. revenge-minded division rivals not off an upset division win.  Take Cleveland.  NFL Division Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over New York.  The Cowboys received welcome news when they learned that RB Ezekiel Elliott will be available for this key divisional contest vs. the Giants.  And that was a key factor for me to pull the trigger on Dallas in this opener.  It's true that the Giants upset the Cowboys in both meetings last season, to hand Dallas two of its three regular season losses.  And it's also true that the Giants have won three straight in this series, overall.  But NFC East division teams playing with revenge from 3+ losses to division rivals have gone 105-84-3 ATS since 1981, including 59-45-1 ATS at home.  That bodes well for Jason Garrett's men on Sunday night.  Even better:  teams that won more than 10 games the previous season, and playing with revenge, have cashed 71% at home in Week 1 over the past 30 seasons, including 88% vs. division foes.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over Indianapolis.  It may seem strange that the Rams -- a team wich won just four games last season -- has been installed as a big favorite.  But the Colts will be missing several key offensive players in this season opener.  Chief among them, of course, is QB Andrew Luck.  But Chester Rogers, Erik Swoope, Ryan Kelly and Ian Silberman are also injured.  Frankly, I believe the Rams should be favored by even more points than they are.  So, we'll lay the points with Los Angeles, as they also fall into my very best opening week angle, which is 34-12 ATS its last 46.  Take the Rams.

Our selection is on Tennessee. (Analysis to follow.)

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Baltimore.  The Bengals suffered through a miserable 6-9-1 season in 2016, after winning the AFC North division in 2015.  But I love the Bengals to bounce back this season.  And they should get the 2017 campaign off on the right foot, as they've won five straight home meetings vs. Baltimore, while the home team in this series is 17-6 SU and 14-8-1 ATS the last 23 meetings.  Even better:  the Bengals are 23-12-2 ATS as favorites of -3+ points in the regular season, and they also fall into an opening week angle of mine which is 40-22 ATS since 1980.  Take Cincinnati.

At 6:30 pm, on Sunday Feb. 5, our selection is on the New England Patriots over the Atlanta Falcons.  We played on the Patriots vs. the Steelers as our NFL Game of the Year, and that play was largely motivated by New England's vastly superior defense (it was 4.08 ppg better than the Steelers' defense).  Well, here, the gap between the Patriots' defense and the Falcons' defense is much larger than that.  New England's given up just 15.72 ppg, while Atlanta's surrendered an ungodly (for a Playoff team) 24.83 ppg.  That doesn't bode well for Atlanta, as underdogs have covered just 3 of 15 Super Bowls since 1984 if matched up against a foe whose defense gives up less than 16.32 ppg.  And, yes, it's absolutely true that the Falcons have a fantastic offense.  They put up 44 points in their last game, and have scored 33+ points in each of their past six games, and average 34.44 ppg on the season.  Unfortunately for the Falcons, teams off a Playoff win, in which they scored more than 40 points, have gone 0-13 ATS if they also scored more than 100 points in their three previous games, and give up, on defense, at least 15 ppg.  It's often said that 'defense wins championships.'  And that's because we've seen great offenses flounder countless times on the biggest stage.  Indeed, there have been four teams that averaged at least 32.7 ppg to make the Super Bowl, and none has won or covered its game, or even scored 17+ points!  The Redskins lost 38-9 to Oakland; Dan Marino's Dolphins fell, 38-16, to the 49ers; the undefeated, 18-0, Patriots lost 17-14 to the Giants; and Peyton Manning's Broncos (arguably the best offense, ever) lost 43-8 to Seattle.  Combined, those 4 offensive juggernauts failed to cover the spread by an average of 20.6 ppg in the Super Bowl!  New England's now won nine straight games (8-1 ATS), and has given up more than 17 points just once (vs. Baltimore) in those nine games!  But even that game vs. the Ravens, in which New England gave up 23 points, must be assigned an asterisk, as 14 of the Ravens' 23 points were gifted to them on the heels of two fumbles by Patriot kick returners.  Until those two fumbles -- on back to back kickoffs -- the Pats had a 23-3 lead.  Baltimore's offense had been completely shut down by New England, so, without those two gaffes, Baltimore likely would have had just 3 points thru three quarters.  Finally -- and this is not a knock on Dan Quinn and Kyle Shanahan -- there's just not a better coaching staff in football than the Patriots' staff (HC Bill Belichick, OC Josh McDaniels, DC Matt Patricia).  And if you give Belichick & Co. an extra week to prepare, then you can rest assured they'll have a great game plan in place.  To wit:  New England's 27-9 SU when working with an extra week under Belichick, including 8-3-1 ATS its last 12 when not favored by 7+ points.  Take the Patriots.  NFL Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Pittsburgh/New England game.  We played on the 'over' in the Patriots/Texans game, and were rewarded with a 34-16 New England win.  That high-scoring game extended New England's 'over' run to 78-49 its last 127, and 8-2-1 at home in the playoffs.  Meanwhile, the Steelers have generally been an 'over' team in the Playoffs.  Since 1983, Pittsburgh's gone 'over' 27-12-1, including 10-1 'over' if its opponent's defensive ppg was less than 16.36.  New England, of course, is giving up just 15.64 ppg this season, but teams that give up less than 16 ppg have gone 'over' 57% in the Playoffs the past 37 years (and 67% if the O/U line was 46+ points).  The 'over' falls into 60-29, 37-14 and 50-24 Totals Systems of mine.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Patriots are a better team across the board.  They own the better offense (27.94 ppg vs 24.83 ppg), better defense (15.64 vs. 19.72), better win percentage (.882 vs. .722), better pointspread differential (5.17 vs. 1.05), better pointspread win percentage (.823 vs. .611).  They're also playing at home, and have been installed as a mid-sized favorite.  In the Playoffs, when you get a team (like Pittsburgh) playing away from home against an opponent which is superior in every single one of these categories, it's not very surprising to learn that our inferior teams don't do very well.  Of course, certain of our statistics bear more importance than others at this stage of the Playoffs.  And one of the things I love to do in the Conference Championship round is play on the teams that own the better defense.  Here, of course, that's New England.  The Patriots have given up just 15.64 ppg this season, and that rates 4.08 ppg better than the Steelers' defense.  And in the Conference Championship round, teams with a defensive ppg at least 1 point better than their opponent's defensive ppg, have cashed 100% (10-0 ATS) at home when priced from -2.5 to -6.5 points.   New England's 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS at home in the Playoffs since 2012.  And it's 10-3-1 ATS vs. Pittsburgh in the last 14 meetings (as well as 4-0 ATS vs. Pittsburgh in the last four post-season meetings).  Finally, road underdogs priced from +3.5 to +9.5 points are a dismal 6-17 ATS in the Conference Championship round if they pulled an upset win in the quarterfinals.   Take New England.  NFL Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Pittsburgh.  This is a very difficult situation for the Steelers, who will be playing their first road game after three straight home games.  And NFL road underdogs have gone 0-11 ATS since 1981 off a home playoff win, if they also were at home in their two games previous to that.  Even worse for the Steelers:  they blew out Kansas City 43-14 in early October.  But the Chiefs are a super 20-10 ATS at home their last 30 when playing with same-season revenge, including 10-0 ATS vs. .715 (or worse) foes off a win.  Take Kansas City.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Dallas/Green Bay game.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over the Green Bay Packers.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Houston Texans to go 'over' the total.  The Houston Texans score just 18.00 ppg, and give up just 20.11 (for 38.11 combined points per game).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a low-scoring game.  But NFL underdogs have gone 'over' in 24 of 32 Playoff games, if their games, on average, generated less than 39.3 ppg.  And teams that average less than 20 points on offense have gone 'over' in seven straight playoff games.  Additionally, six of the last eight meetings between these two franchises have gone 'over' the total.  And New England has gone 'over' in 77 of its last 126 games, including 7-2-1 'under' at home in the playoffs.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Total of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over the Seattle Seahawks.  Atlanta lost a 26-24 heartbreaker to the Seahawks earlier this year, when Steven Hauschka kicked the game-winner with 1:57 left to cap a 4th quarter rally which saw Seattle outscore the Falcons, 9-0, in the final frame.  But NFL teams, with a win percentage between .600 and .750, playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, have cashed 45 of 65 Playoff games, including a perfect 14-0 ATS if they lost by 3 points or less in that earlier game.  Also, Seattle falls into negative 27-75 and 38-88 ATS systems of mine, based on its relatively poor offensive stats.  To wit:  Atlanta's offense has been 11.39 ppg better than Seattle's this season!  And home teams with a much better offense (at least +3.0 ppg) have covered 62% in the Playoffs when not laying more than 7 points.  Take Atlanta.  NFL Divisional Round Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over New York.  Interestingly, these two teams have met seven times since 2008.  In the five regular season meetings, the home team covered all five, but in the two Playoff games, it was the road team (and both times, the New York Giants) that got the cash.  Still, I’m going to back the homestanding Packers in this game.  The Giants are in a horrid situation, as they will be playing their third straight road game, after having to play Philly and Washington away from home in the final two weeks of the regular season.  Unfortunately for New York, teams that ended their regular season with back-to-back road games have been awful on the road in their initial playoff game.  Since 1984, they’ve gone 3-14 straight-up, and have covered just four of those 17 games.  That’s one reason I’m going to fade New York.  Another is that it upset Washington, as a 9.5-point underdog.  And teams off an upset win as a 6-point (or greater) underdog in their final regular season game have covered just one of eight Playoff games over the past 30 years.   Finally, Green Bay is 87-57-4 in Aaron Rodgers’ career starts, including 26-8-1 ATS when priced between -3.5 and -6.5 points.  And while it’s easy to focus on the fact that the Eli Manning and the Giants upset the Packers in the Playoffs in 2012, Green Bay has still gone 8-4- ATS in the Playoffs with Rodgers, including 7-1-1, 88% ATS vs. a foe off a pointspread win.  Take Green Bay.  NFL Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points over the Miami Dolphins.  Earlier this year, Miami upset Pittsburgh, 30-15, as a 7-point underdog.  We had a huge play on Miami in that game, so the result didn't surprise us.  But we'll lay the points with Pittsburgh here, in this revenge spot.  The Dolphins, of course, are down to their 2nd string QB after Ryan Tannehill sustained ACL and MCL sprains last month vs. Arizona.  Miami's offense wasn't very good to begin with (it only scores 22.7 ppg).  Certainly, that's problematic.  But even more so because Miami's defense is below average, and gives up 23.7 ppg.  So, it won't be able to keep this game within reach should Miami's offense falter.  For technical support, consider that, since 1980, NFL favorites of -8 or more points, playing with revenge, have gone 15-0 ATS if their opponent's offensive scoring average was less than 23.7 ppg.  Also, Pittsburgh has cashed its last 5 Playoff games when playing with revenge, while Miami has gone 0-9 SU/ATS in the Playoffs as a dog of more than 2 points vs. .600 (or better) foes.  Take the Steelers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Seattle.  Detroit has failed to cover its last three games.  But NFL teams off 3 ATS losses to end the regular season have cashed 65.5% in the Playoffs the past 37 years!  With the pointspread up significantly from the opener, we'll grab the points with Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans minus the points over the Oakland Raiders.  The Texans were 9-7 on the season, and outscored by 49 points over the course of the season (-3.06 ppg), yet are the decided favorite against the 12-4 Raiders, who outscored their foes by 31 points this season (+1.94 ppg).  Obviously, it's because of Oakland's quarterback situation.  But the Texans shouldn't have to apologize for not having to face Derek Carr.  After all, last season, the Texans had to go into the Playoffs with Bobby Hoyer as their starting QB.  And he doomed Houston by throwing four interceptions.  And this season, they've been without J.J. Watt, their best player, since Week 3, when he suffered a herniated disk in his back.  So, even though the Texans have a relative scoring margin of -5.0 ppg compared to Oakland, we'll lay the points on Saturday.  And that's because teams favored by 3 or more points, off a loss in their last regular season game, have gone 8-0, 100% ATS in the Playoffs since 1980 if they owned a relative scoring margin of -1.38 ppg (or worse) to their foe.  Additionally, the Texans lost, 27-20, at home to Oakland in November.  But Houston falls into a 34-15 ATS revenge system of mine.  Finally, Houston's performed very well in the role of a favorite, as it's cashed 14 of its last 19.  Lay the points.  NFL Wild Card Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over the Green Bay Packers.  For the Detroit Lions franchise, which hasn't won a division title since 1993, this is the biggest regular season game in more than a generation.  Unless the Redskins lose to the Giants earlier in the day, the loser of this game will miss the Playoffs, while the winner will claim the division crown.  Certainly, the Packers are playing better football.  They've won five straight, including road wins at Chicago and Philadelphia.  But the Eagles are 6-9, while Chicago is 3-12.  And the Packers' only other road win this season came against the 3-12 Jaguars.  Detroit, though, has a winning record, at 9-6.  And the Packers have lost all four road games this season vs. opponents with a .466 (or better) record (Vikings, Falcons, Titans, Redskins).  And Green Bay's lost those four games by an average of 11 ppg.  It's true that Detroit lost its last two games -- 17-6 at New York, and 42-21 at Dallas.  But those two games were on the road.  At home, in Ford Field, the Lions have been dominant, and come into this contest on a 6-game home win streak (4-1-1 ATS).  And winning home teams, off back to back road losses, have covered 64 of 98 dating back to 1981.  Also, Detroit falls into a 31-4 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams off losses, in which they gave up 40+ points.  Before surrendering 42 to Dallas, the Lions' defense had not given up 21+ points in eight consecutive games.  It should rise to the occasion again, here, at home, in this critical game.  Take Detroit + the points.  NFL Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over Arizona.  We played on the Cardinals as an 8-point underdog last week, and they rewarded us with an outright win at Seattle.  But off that division upset, I look for a letdown on Sunday at Los Angeles.  And that's because .401 (or better) teams off an upset win the previous week as a 6-point (or greater) underdog generally do poorly against the spread.  And especially if they're favored against an opponent off a loss, as they're 86-43 ATS since 1980.  Even worse for the Cardinals:  teams favored on the road in their final game of the regular season, off an upset win, are 0-10 ATS since 1990 vs. an opponent off an ATS loss.  Finally, the Rams fall into a 71-22 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back losses.  Take Los Angeles.  NFC West Division Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over Dallas.  We played on Dallas last Monday in its 42-21 win vs. Detroit.  But we'll switch gears, and go against the Cowboys in this, their final road game of the season.  Dallas has a 13-2 record, so this game is meaningless with respect to Playoff positioning.  The Cowboys have earned the #1 seed, and will enjoy home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs.  But since 1990, NFL teams with a win percentage of .750 or better, have been horrid on the road in their final regular season game.  They've gone 9-21 straight-up and 7-22-1 ATS, including 1-7 ATS if our road team's W/L percentage was more than 40 percentage points greater than its opponent's W/L percentage.  Moreover, the Cowboys fall into a negative 15-52 ATS system of mine based on their high-scoring win last week.  Finally, road underdogs have covered just 21% over the past 36 seasons in their final game of the season, if they were working off a short week, due to playing on the previous Monday night.  Take Philly.  NFC East Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  Ryan Fitzpatrick will start at quarterback for New York, and he had his best game of the season back in Week 2 vs. the Bills, when he threw for 374 yards in a 37-31 victory.  Meanwhile, E.J. Manuel will start under center for Buffalo, rather than Tyrod Taylor, as the Bills couldn’t risk a serious injury to Taylor, which would trigger a guaranteed 27.5 million dollar payment for next season.  Last week, we had a big play on New England over the Jets, and were rewarded with a 41-3 blowout win.  But we’ll jump on the Jets this week, as home underdogs (or PK) off a loss by 23 or more points have gone 183-114 ATS since 1980 if they’re playing an opponent with a win percentage better than .400, including 57-23 ATS if that opponent lost its game the previous week.   Finally, the underdog in this rivalry has gone 42-25 ATS, including 31-12 ATS if it had a worse won/loss record.  Take New York.  NFL Underdog Shocker.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Detroit, as the Lions fall into negative 13-58 and 56-109 ATS systems of mine.  Even worse for Detroit:  last week, the Lions lost 17-6 to the New York Giants, while Dallas defeated Tampa Bay, 26-20.  And winning teams (like Dallas), priced from -3 to -12 points, have cashed 17 straight games at home on Monday Night Football vs. non-division foes, if such foe lost its previous game by 7+ points.  Take the Cowboys. NFL Elite Info Winner. Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the KC/Denver game.  Neither one of these two teams has been playing high-scoring games, of late.  The Broncos have gone 'under' in three straight, including 13-10 and 16-3 losses the past two weeks to Tennessee and New England, respectively.  And KC checks in off 'unders' in eight of 10 games, including their last two, a 21-13 win over Oakland, and a 19-17 upset loss to Tennessee.  But I look for a much higher scoring game tonight, as NFL games with O/U lines less than 40 points have gone 'over' the total 60.4% of the time if both teams come in off back to back games that didn't generate 37+ points.  Take the 'over.'  AFC Total of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Tampa Bay/New Orleans game, as it falls into a 160-101 Totals system of mine.  These two teams met just 13 days ago, and the Bucs won, 16-11, at home.  That game sailed 'under' the total by 25 points, and I look for another low-scoring game on Saturday, notwithstanding the fact that each was just involved in high-scoring games last week.  The Bucs come into this game off a 26-20 loss at Dallas, while New Orleans defeated Arizona, 48-41.  But teams (like New Orleans) that were involved in a game which produced more than 85 points have gone 'under' the total 64% since 1980 if their opponent's previous game generated more than 45 points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over the Seattle Seahawks.  Last week, the Seahawks demolished Los Angeles, 24-3, as a 15.5-point favorite, while Arizona lost, 48-41, at home to New Orleans.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Arizona on the road, given that it's off back to back SU/ATS losses, and Seattle's off a 21-point win.  But consider that the Seahawks are a miserable 15-42 ATS off a win by 21+ points if they weren't favored by more than 10 points in their current game.  Moreover, teams (like Arizona) that lost a game in which they scored 37+ points, have rebounded to go 31-10 ATS in their next game, including 8-0 ATS when priced from +6 to +10 points.  Take the Cardinals.  NFL Road Warrior Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Atlanta/Carolina game.  These two teams met earlier this season.  Atlanta led 17-10 at the half, but the two teams combined for 54 second-half points to send it 'over' the total.  But prior to that game, these two teams had played six straight 'unders' against each other, and I look for a return to form on this Sunday.  it's true that the Falcons have played all but 2 of their games 'over' the total this season (including their last four in a row).  But this history sets up our play, as teams off 4+ 'overs' have gone 'under' in 18 straight games vs. division rivals, if they weren't favored by more than 7 points, and the O/U line was > 50.5 points.  Additionally, the 'under' falls into 65-31, 186-131, 93-53 and 29-6 Totals systems of mine.  Finally, Carolina has gone 'under' 44-25-2 at home vs. division rivals.  Take the 'under.'  NFL Total of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the San Diego Chargers.  Admittedly, the Browns are a very bad football team.  But this is still a great situation to take the points with Cleveland as a home underdog.  It's Cleveland's final home game, after all.  And bad NFL teams -- with win percentages less than .400 — are actually very good bets in their final home game.  Since 1998, they've gone 98-74 ATS, including 40-17 ATS vs. other bad teams with win percentages less than .430 (and then 10-0-1 ATS in that subset since 2012).   Additionally, this is the first time in more than two years that the Chargers have been favored by more than 5 points, whether at home, or on the road!  And on the road, when favored by 4 or more points, the Chargers have covered just once in nine games dating back to 2009.  Take Cleveland.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee comes into this game off an upset win over Kansas City, and has been installed as a road favorite vs. the Jaguars.  Unfortunately for the Titans, they're a poor 5-17 ATS off an upset win, including 1-8 ATS when laying more than 3 points.  Jacksonville also falls into an 86-29 ATS late season system of mine.  Take the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the New York Jets.  New York is 4-10 on the season following its 21-point home loss to the Dolphins a week ago, while New England is 12-2.  This will be the Jets final road game of the year, and teams off a loss by more than 17 points, have gone 0-12 ATS in their final road games, when matched up against an opponent whose win percentage is at least .400 percentage points better.  That doesn't bode well for the Flyboys on Saturday.  And neither does the fact that New England is 26-10 ATS since 1980 in its final home game of the season, including 8-1 ATS if the Patriots' win percentage was at least .333 better than their opponent's.  Finally, the Patriots fall into 34-5, 97-50 and 45-13 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off losses.  Take New England.  NFL Conference Favorite of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Washington Redskins.  The Bears are 3-11, and won't be going to the Playoffs, but they're still competing at a high level.  Over their last five games, Chicago's 1-4 straight-up, but a perfect 5-0 ATS.  This is its final home game of the season, and I fully expect a great effort in front of its home faithful.  Also, the Bears are 42-14 ATS at home off back to back losses, when not favored by more than three points.  Take Chicago.  NFL Underdog Shocker.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over the Miami Dolphins as Buffalo falls into 56-20 and 33-11 ATS systems of mine.  Also, this is Miami's final road game of the season, and NFL underdogs of more than 3 points, with a better season record than their opponent, are a dismal 37% ATS in their final road games, if their opponent is playing with revenge.  With the Bills, indeed, playing with revenge from a 3-point loss at Miami earlier this season, we'll lay the points with Rex Ryan's club.  Take Buffalo. NFL Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the NY Giants.  Philly's dropped 5 in a row (though it covered the spread in last week's loss), while New York's won back to back games (both SU and ATS) vs. Dallas (10-7) and Detroit (17-6).  But we'll fade the G-Men on this Thursday, as the Giants fall into several negative systems of mine.  One is 118-65 ATS and fades certain teams that didn't give up 10 or more points in either of their two previous games.  And another is 86-48 ATS, and that system plays on certain teams off 3+ losses vs. foes off back to back wins.  The Eagles are 13-4 ATS the last 17 meetings with New York, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if the Eagles are off an ATS win.  Take Philly.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.