At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Indianapolis Colts.  The Bears have been installed as a home underdog this afternoon, notwithstanding the fact that they're 3-0 on the season.  And one of the things I love to do is play on really good teams (that are at least 3 games over .500) as home underdogs (or PK) vs. .500 or better opponents that are off a win.  Since 1980, our strong home pups are 100-69 ATS.  Even better, the Bears are a super 45-25 ATS as home underdog of +3 or more points, while Indy is an awful 16-29-4 ATS when laying 3+ on the road.  Take Nick Foles & Co. + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  Last week, we played against the Rams, and took Buffalo as a small home favorite.  The Bills rewarded us with a last-second win, 35-32, which lowered L.A.'s record to 2-1 this season.  Los Angeles will now take on the 0-3 Giants, and the biggest difference between the two teams is on the offensive side of the ball.  LA is averaging 29.67 ppg, while New York has only scored 38 points this season, for a 12.67 ppg.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the offensively-challenged Giants.  But consider that NFL underdogs of +8 (or more) points have cashed 61.4% if they average 17 ppg less than their opponent.  And 0-3 teams have gone 25-10 ATS on the road vs. foes off a SU loss.  Finally, New York's 78-47-3 ATS on the road vs. NFC Conference foes, including 11-1 ATS their last 12.  Take the Giants.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the New York Jets/Denver Broncos game.  Through the season's first three weeks, the games have gone 'over' in 29 of the 48 games, with overall scoring up this year over last.  Neither of these teams has shown a propensity to stop their opponent's offense.  The Broncos have allowed 70 points over their first three games (and would have allowed much more, but for Titans' kicker Stephen Gostkowski missing several FGs and XPs in Week 1). Meanwhile, the Jets have given up 27, 31 and 36 in their first three games.  This over/under is the 2nd-lowest number of the 64 games scheduled thus far.  And, by my math, it's too low.  Indeed, the 'over' falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 72% since 1996.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over Denver.  In this match-up of winless teams, we'll take the homestanding New York Jets minus the points.  It's true that the Jets are 0-3 ATS, while Denver is 2-1 ATS.  But winless SU/ATS teams have cashed 65% over the last 40 years, at Game 3 forward, if they were matched up against a losing team with a .500 (or better) ATS record.  And on Thursday Night Football, teams that have yet to win a game have cashed 70% at home (and 81% if they weren't favored by more than 5 points).  Take the New York Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over the Green Bay Packers.  Last week, the Saints went into Las Vegas, and were upset the the Raiders, 34-24, as a 4-point road favorite.  Meanwhile, the Packers hosted (and bested) the Lions, 42-21.  Off those two results, we'll take Sean Payton's men tonight.  Indeed, NFL teams off upset defeats as a Monday Night Football road favorite have cashed 65.1% since 1980 when matched up against an opponent off a win.  And Sean Payton's teams have gone 56-23 ATS vs. .500 (or better) teams off a win.  Lay the points with the Saints.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Arizona.  The Lions are 0-2 (so, what else is new?) to start the year -- the 7th time in 15 seasons they've started 0-2.  But they've been able to move the ball, as they've scored 21+ points in both games (vs. Chicago and Green Bay).  And 0-2 SU/ATS teams have cashed 60% in Week 3 vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Even better:  Detroit is 37-11 ATS on the road off a loss by more than 12 points, while Arizona is 8-18 ATS at home vs. foes with a W/L percentage less than .140.  Finally, since 1980, road teams off back to back SU/ATS division losses have cashed 60% vs. non-division foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  Last week, the Patriots went into a difficult Seattle venue, and lost to the Seahawks, 35-30, as a road underdog.  Meanwhile, the Raiders christened their new Allegiant Stadium with a 34-24 comeback win over New Orleans.  Unfortunately for the Raiders, they will have to face an ornery Patriots team which will not want to fall to 1-2.  And New England is an awesome 10-0 SU and ATS off a straight-up loss when playing an .833 (or better) opponent off a win.  Finally, NFL road underdogs off back to back wins, in which they tallied more than 30 points, have cashed just 31.4% since 1980 vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the Patriots.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills over the Los Angeles Rams.  This line opened at -3, and has come way down -- to the point where I want to now step in and take the home team.  I had no interest in laying 3 points, but the value now squarely rests on the Bills.  Indeed, Buffalo falls into a great system of mine which is 74-33 ATS since 1981 which plays on certain winning teams not laying more than 1 points.  Yes, Buffalo failed to cover the spread last week in its win over the Dolphins.  But it still won, and is 2-0 on the season.  And the Bills also are 50-22 ATS at home off a point spread loss, if they're playing a foe off a SU win.  Meanwhile, the Rams are 2-0, following their upset win last week vs. Philly.  Unfortunately, winning teams are a soft 256-332 ATS on the road off upset wins, provided they weren't laying more than six points.  Take the Bills at home.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over New Orleans.  Last seasons, the Saints won 13 games.  But NFL teams that won 13+ games the previous season have covered just 43 of 108 road openers when installed as a favorite.  Last Sunday, the Raiders went into Charlotte, and defeated the Carolina Panthers, 34-30.  Off that win, we'll play on Las Vegas in its home opener tonight.  Since 1980, winning teams, off a SU/ATS win, have cashed 65.3% at home on Monday Nights.  Even better:  the Saints are 3-10 their last 13 road openers, and they're an awful 0-7 ATS their last seven road openers when favored by 3 or more points.  Take Las Vegas + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  Last year, the Ravens demolished Houston 41-7, as a 3.5-point favorite, which was Houston's worst loss in its franchise history when it had a winning record at the time of the game.  So, Houston's going to be out for revenge, here at home, on this Sunday afternoon.  We'll grab the points with the Texans, as they fall into a 62.7% ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams that had a winning record the previous season.  Additionally, since 1980, home dogs of +6 or more points have cashed 67% if they were off a 14-point (or worse) defeat in Week 1, and their opponent was off a 14-point (or greater) victory.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over Kansas City.  We played on the Chiefs in their home opener last week, and they rewarded us with a 34-20 victory over Houston.  And that extended the record of defending Super Bowl champs to 14-4-2 ATS in season openers since 2001.  Unfortunately, defending champs are a horrid 3-13 ATS in Week 2 as a road favorite after winning their season opener, including 0-6 ATS vs. foes off a straight-up win.  And .501 (or better) home underdogs have cashed 64.1% over the past 41 years when playing with revenge vs. an opponent off a SU/ATS win.  This is a perfect letdown spot for the Chiefs, and especially because Kansas City also has a Monday Night game next week vs. the Baltimore Ravens, their closest competitor for AFC Conference supremacy.  Take the Chargers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Washington.  Both of these teams pulled off upsets in Week 1.  The Cards took down a very good 49ers team, 24-20, while Washington defeated Philly, 27-17 (after initially falling behind, 17-0).  It's exceptionally hard to pull off back to back upsets to start the NFL season.  Indeed, underdogs of more than 5 points in Week 2, that won outright as an underdog of more than 5 points in Week 1, have gone 1-28 straight-up, and 10-18-1 ATS.  That doesn't bode well for Washington on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that, since 1980, NFL teams that won 25% (or less) of their games the previous season have gone 0-17 SU and 4-13 ATS as an underdog of 4+ points off an upset win in Week 1.  We'll lay the points with Arizona, as I look for the Cardinals to rout Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Green Bay.  The Packers upset the Vikings in Week 1, 43-34, while Detroit fell to Chicago, 27-23.  And that loss by Detroit was after it led by 17 points in the 4th quarter.  Green Bay is favored by almost a touchdown, but it's not defeated Detroit by 7 or more points in any of the last six meetings (and by more than 7 points in any of the last 10 games).  The Lions are 4-2 straight-up in the last six games, and won by an average of 12 points per game.  We'll grab the points with Detroit, as NFC North division teams are a fantastic 63-33-4 ATS off a loss when matched up against a division foe off a win, including 25-9 ATS on the road.  Even better:  the Packers are 1-9 ATS their last 10 off a SU/ATS road win.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over the New York Jets.  Last season, the Niners lost just three games.  So, it was a bit of a surprise last week when they were upset at home by the Arizona Cardinals.  The good news for San Francisco is that favorites in Week 2, off an upset loss in Week 1, have cashed 63% over the last 40 years, if they had a .750 (or better) W/L record the previous season.  Additionally, the Niners are 8-0 ATS as a road favorite of -5 (or more) points off an upset loss as a 3-point (or greater) favorite.  Take the Niners.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over Dallas.  Both the Falcons and Cowboys suffered Week 1 losses last Sunday.  Atlanta was upset, 38-25, at home by Seattle, while Dallas fell by three on the road to the L.A. Rams.  We'll grab the points with the Falcons, as road teams have cashed 65.9% over the past 40 years if they were upset in their season opener, and lost by 10+ points.  Additionally, the Falcons fall into 48-9 and 57-17 ATS systems of mine that play on certain road teams off blowout losses.  Take Atlanta + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Jacksonville.  The Titans have dominated their AFC South division rival in Nashville, as the Titans have won six straight (4-1-1 ATS), with the last two by margins of 22 and 21 points.  Since 1999, the Titans are 16-5 SU and 13-7-1 ATS at home vs. Jacksonville.  Last Sunday, the Jaguars stunned Indianapolis, 27-20, as a touchdown underdog.  We'll look for a letdown today, as NFL road underdogs off an upset win by 7+ points over a division rival, are a soft 83-128-4 ATS.  Lay the points with the Titans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over Buffalo.  Each of these teams were involved in games with double-digit margins of victory last Sunday.  Miami lost by 10 to New England, while Buffalo won by 10 over the NY Jets.  The Bills, though, have been a horrible team off a double-digit win over a division rival, as they've covered just 12 of 50 since 1981.  Meanwhile, Miami falls into 133-70 and 295-223 ATS systems of mine that play on certain divisional home underdogs vs. unrested winning opponents.  Take the Dolphins + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over Cincinnati.  The Browns were roasted, 38-6, in Week 1 by the Baltimore Ravens.  But I love Cleveland to rebound on this Thursday night vs. its AFC North division rival, Cincinnati.  The last thing any NFL teams wants to do to start a season is go 0-2, and especially if each of its first two games are division contests.  Indeed, over the last 30 years, favorites have cashed 70.3% in division games in Week 2, if they lost to another division foe in Week 1, including 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS the last eight.  That bodes well for Cleveland tonight.  As does the fact that NFL teams that failed to cover the spread by 23+ points in Week 1, have rebounded to go 21-7 ATS in Week 2 vs. an opponent also off a loss, if our team was not getting 10+ points.  Take Cleveland minus the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Tennessee.  It's tough to make money going against the Broncos at home when they're an underdog, or a short favorite.  Indeed, since 1981, Denver's gone 50-22 ATS at home when not favored by more than 2 points.  Even better:  Denver's 28-11 ATS its last 37 home openers when not favored by double-digits, including 5-0 ATS as an underdog!  The Broncos have also dominated the Titans, with a record of 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Drew Lock & Co. to upset the Titans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Over the years, Pittsburgh has significantly underperformed as road favorites of -2 or more points vs. non-division foes.  Since 1980, they've covered just 24 of 76 games. Additionally, dating back to 1983, home underdogs of +5 or more points have cashed 59% in September if it was Week 1, or they were not off a straight-up loss.  Yesterday, we saw the two big home underdogs (Jacksonville, Washington) pull off major upsets.  And I look for another upset by the Giants on Monday Night Football this evening.  Take the points with New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons over the Seattle Seahawks.  These two teams met last season here in Atlanta, and the Seahawks came away with a 27-20 victory.  But Atlanta was ravaged with injuries for that game, and was actually installed as a 7.5-point home underdog.  The two teams are much more even in talent for this game, and I have 83-49, 66-35 and 86-53 ATS systems on the Falcons.  Moreover, the Seahawks have always done great in their home opener, and extremely poorly in their road opener.  Dating back to 1999, the Seahawks have covered just 4 of 21 road openers.  Meanwhile, they're 13-4 ATS their last 17 home openers.  Similarly, the Falcons are a fantastic 17-4 ATS their last 21 home openers, but 4-12 ATS their last 16 road openers.  I expect those two trends to stay true to form this afternoon.  Additionally, over the last 16 seasons, in Week 1, non-division home teams have cashed 63% when playing with revenge from a home loss to a non-division foe the previous season.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Green Bay.  Last year, both of these teams made the playoffs, but the Packers defeated Minnesota in both regular season meetings.  I love Minnesota to avenge those defeats, as they fall into a division double-revenge system of mine which is 23-6 ATS since 1987, including a perfect 15-0 ATS when priced from -2 to -7 points!  Even better:  the Packers are 1-7 straight-up, and 1-6-1 ATS when getting 2+ points from a division rival it defeated twice the previous season.  Finally, the Vikings are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS their last five home openers, while the Packers are a poor 4-7 ATS their last 11 road openers.  Lay the points with Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Houston.  Last January, these two teams met in the quarterfinals, and we had a play on Kansas City minus 8.5 points, and also had our NFL Total of the Year on the over 51.  The Texans jumped out to a 24-0 lead, but then collapsed, and lost 51-31.  One of the things I highlighted last season in my breakdown of that Playoff game was that Houston was the only team -- of the 12 that qualified for the post-season -- which had a negative scoring differential.  And they also had the 2nd-worst defense of any Playoff team, as they gave up 24.06 ppg in the regular season.  Yes, it's a new season, so Houston's defensive numbers don't carry over to this year.  Still, it's worth noting that the Chiefs have dominated teams that allow 23.66 points or more, as they're 32-8 SU and 26-13-1 ATS their last 40.  Some may look for a Super Bowl hangover in Week 1, but that theory has never actually been validated by the data.  Indeed, defending Super Bowl champs are on a 16-3 SU and 13-4-2 ATS run in Week 1 since 2001.  Kansas City also falls into 11-0, 47-14, 82-49 and 65-28 ATS systems of mine.  And it ended last season on an 8-0-1 ATS run.  I won't step in front of this freight train at home, even with most of the seats empty.  Lay the points with the Chiefs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Green Bay.  Last week, we played on the Packers and were rewarded with a 28-23 victory over Seattle.  And that was Green Bay's 6th straight win, overall.  Unfortunately, its win streak should come to a screeching halt this weekend, as it falls into a negative system, which is 5-35 SU and 9-31 ATS.  What we want to do is play AGAINST any underdog of +3 (or more) points off 5+ wins, if it's now playing a foe with a winning record.  And even though there's nothing wrong with 31-9 ATS, we can improve our situation to 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS by solely going against teams that don't average 24.85 points per game on offense.  It's absolutely true that Green Bay will certainly want to avenge its blowout loss here earlier in the season.  But revenge-minded NFL teams have performed very poorly in Conference Championship road games, as they've gone 16-28 ATS.  Also, the 49ers are 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS as home favorites priced from -3 to -7.5 points in the Playoffs.  And NFL favorites, priced from -3.5 to -9.5 points have gone 30-15 ATS in Conference Championship games.  Take the 49ers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Philadelphia/Seattle game.  These two teams met earlier this season -- here in Philly -- and the Seahawks won a very low-scoring game, 17-9.  And that's been par for the course for Philadelphia here, as the Eagles have now gone 'under' the total in their last six (and in 24 of their last 34) home games.  And they've also gone 'under' the total 7-1-1 in their last nine home NFL Playoff games.  Additionally, the 'under' is 33-18 in competitively-priced games with point spreads less than 3.  And this game (to go 'under') also falls into a 23-3 Totals system of mine, which is statistically-based.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Buffalo/Houston game.  The Buffalo Bills have now played six straight games that totaled 41 or less points.  And outside of their two games vs. Miami, none of their other 14 games equaled the posted total for this game.  And it's not just on the defensive side of the ball where points are hard-earned; the Bills, themselves, have scored just 6, 17, and 17 in their three previous games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for yet another low-scoring Buffalo game on this Saturday.  But knee-jerk reactions are often the wrong move.  Indeed, teams (like Buffalo) that scored 42 or less points over their three previous games have gone 'over' the total 75 percent of the time over the last 26 seasons.  And these two teams also fall into 57-33 and 53-32 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Baltimore.  The Ravens have won 10 straight games (their last loss was to these Browns), and are the odds-on favorite to be the #1 seed in the AFC Conference.  But the point spreads of really good teams tend to be inflated late in the season.  And this game is a perfect example, as Cleveland is getting double-digits at home (which is roughly the same point spread dealt in Baltimore's road game at then-winless Cincinnati in mid-October).  We'll grab the points with the Browns, as home underdogs of +9 (or more) points have gone 14-0 ATS in the season's final four weeks vs. .833 (or better) opponents.  Additionally, the Ravens have covered just 3 of 19 road games off a win by 18+ points, and have also covered just 16 of 41 vs. foes playing their final home game of the season.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Tennessee.  We had our biggest NFL play of the year-to-date two weeks ago when the Texans met the Patriots, and pulled off a 28-22 upset.  We then, not surprisingly, went against the Texans last week vs. Denver, as a letdown was in order, and they certainly had one, as they lost outright to the Broncos, as an 8-point favorite.  But I love Houston to bounce back this afternoon vs. the Titans.  Indeed, since 1980, divisional road underdogs, off an upset loss by more than 10 points the previous week, are 86-49-4 ATS.  It's absolutely true that Tennessee is red-hot, and on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak.  But unrested teams off 4 SU/ATS wins are a soft 107-138 ATS vs. winning opponents.  Finally, the Texans are 15-6 ATS their last 21 vs. Tennessee, including a perfect 8-0 ATS if the Texans failed to cover their previous game by more than 3 points.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Kansas City.  Last week, we had our strongest NFL play of the season-to-date on the Houston Texans + over New England.  And we easily got the $$$ in an outright right by DeShaun Watson & Co.  But we'll switch gears this Sunday, and take the Patriots off that defeat.  Indeed, there's no better coach in the business than Bill Belichick when it comes to readying his troops to rebound off a loss.  To wit:  the Patriots are 49-9 straight-up, and 42-16 ATS (72.4%) when coming off a loss (compared to 175-56 SU and 131-94 ATS (58.2%)) when coming off a win.  It's true that the Chiefs will be playing this game with revenge from last year's playoff defeat.  But New England is 5-1-1 ATS when priced from -3 to -6.5 against a foe which has revenge from a playoff loss.  Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 3-7 SU/ATS when playing with Playoff revenge.  Lay the points with New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over Minnesota.  This is a great match-up tonight between two teams that still have an opportunity to get the #1 seed in the NFC.  These teams have met five times this decade, and the Seahawks have won each of those games, and covered all but one.  I look for them to extend their win streak in this series to 6 straight, as the Seahawks are 67-25 SU and 53-36-3 ATS at home their last 92, including 33-17-2 ATS when not favored by 7+ points.  Even better:  Monday Night home teams off back to back road wins have gone 26-9 ATS, while the Vikings have gone 0-8 ATS their last eight Monday Night road games. Take the Seahawks...Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Pittsburgh/Cleveland game.  This is a critical game for the AFC Playoff picture.  And the victor will be in a very good position to eventually snag the 6th, and final wild card spot.  Last week, the Cleveland Browns had their best offensive day of the season, when they scored 41 points vs. Miami.  And over his last three games, QB Baker Mayfield has been excellent, with seven touchdowns, and just one interception.  Over those three games, the Browns have averaged 27 ppg on offense.  The Steelers' offense has sputtered lately, so they've made a change at the quarterback position, and will start Devlin "Duck" Hodges, the former Samford star (and all-time FCS passing leader, with 14,584 career yards).  Hodges made one start earlier this season, and it was a positive one, as the Steelers went into Los Angeles, and upset the Chargers, 24-17.  I've liked what I've seen of Hodges when he's played this season (both in that start vs. the Charges, and as a relief QB).  And he's a definite upgrade over the erstwhile starter, Mason Rudolph.  This will be a relatively-high scoring game.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Buffalo.  The Bills are 8-3 on the season, yet have been installed as a big underdog at Dallas this afternoon.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to grab the points with Buffalo given that it's lost by more than six points just once this season.  But consider that .700 (or better) road underdogs of 5+ points, off back-to-back wins, have cashed just 22.5% in the regular season since 1986, at Game 12 forward.  That doesn't bode well for the Bills today.  Nor does the fact that they're 0-16-1 ATS off back-to-back point spread wins when matched up against a .666 (or worse) foe not off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over Washington.  After a promising 2-0-1 start, which included wins over the Chargers and Eagles, Detroit has dropped six of seven games.  Of course, it also must be noted that Detroit's one win in this stretch was against the Giants, who have a losing record, at 2-8.  And, for the season, Detroit's gone 3-1-1 in its five games against teams that currently have a .500 (or worse) record (Cardinals, Chargers, Eagles, Bears, Giants).  In contrast, Detroit's 0-5 vs. teams that currently have a winning record (Chiefs, Packers, Raiders, Cowboys, Vikings).  That bodes well for the Lions in this game on Sunday afternoon, against the 1-9 Redskins.  As does the fact that losing NFL teams, off back to back losses, have gone 40-15 ATS as road favorites of more than 3 points.  Finally, Washington's 15-31 ATS at home vs. teams that didn't own a winning record.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the KC Chiefs/Los Angeles Chargers game.  Kansas City's last three games have each gone 'over' the total, and those three games combined for 171 total points (55, 49 and 67).  But I look for a lower scoring game tonight, as NFL games have gone UNDER 167-117 (59%) since 1980, including 15-4 (79%) UNDER on Monday Night Football, when the O/U line was 47+ points -- provided one of the teams was off 3 OVERS, and its previous three games combined to exceed 160 total points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Los Angeles Rams/Chicago Bears game.  Both of these teams enter tonight's contest off a string of relatively-low scoring games.  The Bears' last three games have all gone 'under' the total, while the Rams have gone 'under' in four straight games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low scoring game here, especially since last season's game between these two teams only produced 21 points (Chicago 15 Los Angeles 6).  But, over the last 40 seasons, match-ups between two teams that have each gone 'under' the total in each of their previous three games actually go 'OVER' the total more often than not.  Even better:  the Rams have gone 'OVER' the total in 12 of their last 13 games when they had gone 'under' in each of their four previous games, and they've also gone 'over' the total 33 of 55 games if their opponent was off three 'unders.'  Likewise, since 1980, the Bears have gone 'over' the total 62% of the time if their opponent was off four 'unders.'  Finally, the 'OVER' falls into a totals system of mine which is 61-34 since 1980.  Take the 'OVER.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over Buffalo.  The Browns are 2-6 on the season, and lost as a road favorite last week in Denver.  Meanwhile, Buffalo is 6-2, and won and covered its last game -- at home -- vs. the Redskins.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the 6-2 Bills as an underdog, especially given that the Browns have lost their last four games.  But consider that NFL underdogs have covered 0 of 9 games in the 2nd half of the season if they owned a win percentage at least .400 greater than their opponent.  That doesn't bode well for the Bills on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that teams off 4+ losses, including an upset defeat in their previous game, have cashed 70% since 2001 when not getting more than 3 points.  Take Cleveland to blow out Buffalo.  Lay the points. NFL Favorite of the Month!  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys Under the total.  Each of these two teams come into this game off a string of relatively-high scoring games.  Dallas' last three games have produced 58, 46 and 47 points, while the New York Giants' last three games have generated 49, 48 and 57 points.   The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game, especially since the first meeting (in Week 1) between these two teams resulted in a 52-point game.  But match-ups between division rivals -- with Over/Under lines greater than 47 points -- have gone UNDER the total 62% of the time since 1980 if previous three games for each of the two teams resulted in 43+ points being scored.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens + the points over New England.  The Patriots are one of two undefeated teams in the NFL.  And they're 6-2 ATS.  But they've benefited from a ridiculously easy schedule.  Only one of New England's previous eight opponents currently has a winning record.  That would be the Buffalo Bills.  And New England didn't cover the point spread in that game, and was actually out-gained in yardage, 375-224, but was able to win because the Bills committed three more turnovers than did New England.  Baltimore will thus be the 2nd winning opponent which the Patriots will face this season.  The Ravens are 5-2, and come into this game off a bye week following their upset win, at Seattle.  That bodes well for them, as rested teams have gone 11-4 ATS as an underdog vs. New England if the Patriots were unrested.  Also, .700 (or better) teams have gone 17-8 ATS vs. New England as a home underdog.  Those team trends are nice.  But I also have many league-wide NFL systems against New England.  For example, .666 (or better) NFL home underdogs of +1.5 (or more) points have cashed 73% since 1980 off a road win, if they're playing an opponent off a home win.  And .666 (or better) home underdogs have cashed 60% of the time (at Week 7 forward) vs. non-division foes.  Admittedly, it's true that the Patriots have won and covered each of their last four games by wide margins (33-7, 35-14, 33-0, 27-13).  Unfortunately, .500 (or better) NFL teams, off 4 straight wins and covers, in which they scored 24+ points in each game, have covered just 30% of the time vs. .666 (or better) foes.   The Patriots win streak will end on Sunday night.  Take the Ravens + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over Pittsburgh.  The Dolphins are 0-6 on the season, but they've covered the point spread in their last two games.  We stayed away from playing on or against Miami for its first five contests, but stepped in last Sunday and took the points with it against Buffalo (and cashed).  We'll take the Dolphins once again tonight, as winless NFL underdogs of +7 (or more) points have gone 44-16-2 ATS (at Game 6 forward) on the road vs. non-division opponents.  Also, Monday Night Football underdogs of more than 9 points have gone 22-6-1 ATS.  Take the Dolphins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Indianapolis.  The Broncos were blown out, 30-6, as a 3-point home underdog last week.  But I love them to rebound on Sunday at Indianpolis.  The Colts come into this game off two huge victories:  a 19-13 win at Kansas City, who knocked them out of last year's playoffs, and a 30-23 win over division rival, Houston.  Last week's win moved Indy to 4-2 on the season -- and into first place in the AFC South -- a half-game ahead of the Texans, who fell to 4-3.  But NFL home teams have covered just 32% (at Game 5 forward) over the last 40 years if they were off back to back wins over .666 (or better) opponents.  That doesn't bode well for Indianapolis.  Nor does the fact that favorites off a division win have covered just 42 of 118 games vs. foes off a home loss in which they failed to cover the spread by more than 18 points.  Take the Broncos + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins + the points over Minnesota. These two teams are obviously heading in opposite directions.  Washington is 1-6 this season, and lost 9-0 at home to the 49ers last week (though it covered the 10-point spread), while the Vikes have won (and covered) each of their last three games.  And over its last two games, Minnesota has had its best offensive outputs (38, 42 points) of the season.  But before one walks to the window and plunks down some $$$ on Minnesota, consider that teams off a shutout defeat at home (like Washington) have gone 69.7% ATS since 2001.  And NFL teams off a win (like Minnesota), who have scored more than 60 points more than their opponent over their two previous games (Minnesota scored 80, Washington just 17), have gone 7-28 ATS if their opponent was off a loss.  Washington also falls into 153-69, 21-3 and 218-130 ATS systems of mine.  Grab the points with the Redskins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over New England.  Yesterday, we played on the Washington Redskins as a double-digit home underdog vs. San Francisco, and got the $$$$ in a 9-point loss.  Here, the Jets have also been installed as a large home underdog -- currently ranging from +9.5 to +10.5, depending on one's sports book, as of this writing.  We'll grab the points with the Flyboys, as home underdogs of more than 9 points have gone 83-47-2 ATS vs. foes off a home win, including 35-13-1 ATS if their opponent was also off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Even better:  the Jets enter this contest off an upset win over Dallas last week, 24-22, as a 7.5-point home underdog.  And Monday Night home dogs of +2 (or more) points have gone 20-4 ATS off an upset win, including a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS since 2011!  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Tennessee Titans/Los Angeles Chargers game.  On the surface, this looks like it will be a very low-scoring game.  The Chargers' last five games have averaged 36.8 ppg, while the Titans' last five games have averaged 10 points less, at 26.8 ppg.  And each of those 10 games have gone 'under' the total.  So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another 'under' here.  But such knee-jerk reactions are often wrong.  Indeed, over the last 40 years, NFL teams have gone 'over' 65% of the time if one team played its last 5 (or more) games 'under' the total, and its opponent played its last 3 (or more) games 'under' the total, and the Over/Under line was 42 or less points.  And the Titans have gone 57-30 'over' the total after scoring less than 14 points in their previous game, if the Over/Under line in their current game was 42 or less points.  Take the Chargers and Titans 'over' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Washington/Miami game.  These two teams have combined to go 0-9 this season, and are arguably the two worst teams in football.  It's true that each team lacks skilled offensive players, which would greatly explain why Miami has yet to score two touchdowns in a game, and why Washington (after QB Case Keenum's injury) has been unable to score twice in either of its two previous games.  Of course, it must also be noted that both teams have played strong defenses this season.  Washington has faced New England, Chicago, Dallas and Philly, while Miami has also gone up New England and Dallas, and played the Chargers and Baltimore, as well.  Thus, today's game is a significant departure for each team, as far as the defense it will face (Washington gives up 30.2 ppg; Miami surrenders 40.7 ppg).  I expect both offenses to move the ball, and for this game to be relatively high-scoring.  Indeed, since 1986, NFL match-ups (at Game 3 forward) between two teams whose defenses have each given up more than 30 points per game have gone 'over' the total 64.2% of the time.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over New England.  Last week, the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots blew out Washington, 33-7.  And that moved New England to 5-0 on the season.  On Thursday night, they will face the injury-riddled Giants, and have been installed as a favorite of more than two touchdowns.  It's always dangerous to lay this many points in the NFL, as double-digit favorites fail to cover the spread more often than not.  And we will happily take New York with the points in this game.  Indeed, defending Super Bowl champs have only covered 29% over the past 40 seasons if they were off a 20-point (or greater) road win, and matched up against an opponent off a loss.  And New England's 1-6 ATS when laying more than 17 points.  None of this bodes well for New England here.  Nor does the fact that the Giants are an awesome 25-9 ATS their last 34 when getting more than 9 points, including a perfect 11-0 ATS since December 18, 2004!  Finally, the Giants fall into 71-34, 231-140 and 76-32 ATS systems of mine based on the two teams' statistical profiles.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over Pittsburgh.  Last week, the Steelers blew out division rival, Cincinnati, 27-3, for their first win of the season.  Meanwhile, the Ravens also played a division rival, Cleveland, but were upset, 40-25, as a 7.5-point favorite.  That was Baltimore's 2nd straight defeat, as it also narrowly lost, 33-28, to Kansas City, which is one of the AFC's top two teams.  I love Baltimore to bounce back off those 2 losses, as NFL teams off an upset loss by more than 14 points have cashed 67% since 1980 vs. opponents off a win by 20+ points.  Also, the Ravens are outscoring foes by an impressive 8.75 points per game.  And the Steelers are 0-7 ATS their last seven at home vs. foes that owned a scoring margin of 5.5 (or better).  Finally, Baltimore is a solid 21-11-3 ATS on the road off a home upset defeat, including a perfect 4-0-1 ATS if it was favored by more than 7 points in its previous game.  Take Baltimore minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Both of these teams come into this Monday Night Football game with an 0-3 record.  And each team lost road games in Weeks 1 + 3, and a home game in Week 2.  But even though the profile of these two teams is similar, the Bengals have been the better team as far as the point spread is concerned.  Cincy is 2-1 ATS, while Pittsburgh is 1-2 ATS.  And the Bengals' point spread differential is 4.5 ppg better than that of the Steelers, while its margin of victory is 2.33 ppg better.  We'll grab the points with the Bengals, as winless home favorites have gone 10-20 ATS in Week 4 since 1983, while winless road underdogs have cashed 25 of their last 36 in Week 4.  Even better:  Monday Night Football favorites of 6 points or less have covered just 22% of the time since 1982, provided their win percentage was less than .300.  Take the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Arizona.  The Cardinals have been installed as a home favorite, notwithstanding the fact that they're winless on the season, and have covered just five of their last 18 games as a home favorite.  Yes, it's true that Carolina's #1 QB, Cam Newton, is sidelined with a foot injury.  But I don't view this entirely as a negative, as Newton was hampering his team with his horrible play.  In the first two games, he was 50-for-89 for 572 yards, but 0 touchdowns, and one interception.  On the ground, Newton was even worse, as he had 5 carries for minus-2 yards, and two fumbles.  His QB rating is 26.9, which ranks #29 in the league!  So, Ron Rivera's club will turn to Kyle Allen, a second-year QB out of the University of Houston.  Allen made one start last season, and was impressive in a 33-14 road victory over New Orleans.  Allen completed 16 of 27 passes for 228 yards, and accounted for three touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing).  That experience in front of a hostile crowd will stand him in good stead on Sunday, and I expect him to play extremely well.  The Panthers fall into several of my favorite NFL systems, with records of 135-63, 156-70, 107-43, 153-74, 63-25 and 40-19 ATS since 1980.  And the Panthers are also 39-18 ATS as a road underdog vs. foes that don't have a winning record, including 26-9 ATS vs. non-division opponents.  Take Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Kansas City.  The Chiefs opened up their season with a 40-26 win at Jacksonville, while Oakland upset Denver this past Monday night.  One of the things I love to do is go against teams that scored a lot of points in Week 1.  Indeed, since 1980, the majority of NFL teams that scored more than 38 points in Week 1 have scored less than 23 in Week 2.  So, it's not really a surprise that NFL teams have cashed just 28% in Week 2 as favorites of more than 4 points, if they scored more than 38 points in Week 1.  Last season, for example, the Saints scored 40 in Week 1, and were favored by 10 points vs. Cleveland in Week 2, but scored just 21, in a 3-point win, and failed to cover the point spread.  I look for KC's offense to be held in check by Jon Gruden's men.  Take Oakland + the points.  NFL High Roller Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings + the points over Green Bay.  The Packers opened their 2019 campaign with an impressive 10-3 upset win at defending NFC North division champ, Chicago.  On Sunday, the Packers will try to move to 2-0 within the division, as it tackles its other big rival, Minnesota.  Unfortunately, the Packers have gone 0-6 with one Tie after a straight-up win since Dec. 17, 2017.  And they're 0-6-1 ATS off their last seven point spread victories.  Yikes!  Green Bay also has gone 0-5-1 straight-up, and 1-5 ATS vs. the Vikings since 2016 when not favored by 6+ points.  And single-digit home favorites have covered just 41% in Week 2 off an upset victory in Week 1.  Take Minnesota.  NFL Division Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Pittsburgh.  These two teams met last season, and we had a huge play on the Steelers as a 3-point home underdog.  Pittsburgh played without Le'Veon Bell but still won that game, 17-10.  But that game was in the Steel City.  This Sunday night's game is in Foxborough, where the Patriots have never lost to Pittsburgh with Tom Brady at QB (Pittsburgh did win in 2008, but Matt Cassel was New England's QB that day).  With Brady under center, New England has gone 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS vs. the Steelers.  Even better:  Bill Belichick's Patriots have cashed 76.4% ATS when playing with revenge from an upset defeat, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when priced from -4.5 to -8.5 points.  And defending Super Bowl champs have cashed 85% since 1983 in Week 1 when they opened the season at home, and weren't favored by 6.5 (or more) points.  Take New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over Indianapolis.  The Chargers were a darling among bettors last season, and were widely touted, at the end of the regular season, to reach the Super Bowl from the AFC.  I wasn't as optimistic, as it's virtually impossible to win an NFL Championship as a Wild Card team.  Indeed, I had a big play against the Chargers when they went into New England in the quarter-finals, and was rewarded with an easy 41-28 win.  This season, I believe the Chargers will be one of the league's top teams again.  Unfortunately, they reside in a division with the equally-talented Kansas City Chiefs, so they might be a Wild Card entry once again.  Here, though, in the opening game of the season, they are a decided favorite vs. an Andrew Luck-less Colts team which will now be hard-pressed to earn a 2nd consecutive AFC South division title.  The Chargers have run roughshod over AFC South division foes over the years, as they're 29-5-1 ATS since 2002, including 7-2 ATS vs. the Colts.  And, going back further, one finds that the Chargers are 19-7 ATS vs. the Colts since 1981.  It's true that Los Angeles has stumbled out of the gate with losses in Week 1 each of the previous three seasons.  But they were road underdogs in two of those three games.  For this contest, they're a touchdown favorite.  And NFL teams favored between 6 and 7 points in Week 1, that won a Playoff game the previous season, have gone 12-0 straight-up since 2006, and 30-4 straight-up since 1981.  The Chargers also fall into several of my best Week 1 angles that are 57-28, 75-36 and 72-44 ATS since 1980.  Lay the points with Philip Rivers & Co.  NFL Elite Info Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over Tennessee.  The Cleveland Browns enter 2019 on an 11-season losing streak.  Since 2008, they've gone 45-130-1 straight-up, and 76-95-5 ATS!  The good news, though, for those on Lake Erie is that head coach Hue Jackson was fired midway through last season.  Freddie Kitchens was promoted to offensive coordinator for the season's final eight games.  And then he was named head coach 13 days after the season ended (ex-Tampa Bay offensive coordinator, Todd Monken, will take over as OC for the Browns).  This season, most observers believe the Browns will battle it out with Pittsburgh for the AFC Central division title (both teams are projected to win nine games), and I actually would give the edge to Cleveland in that race.  Notwithstanding Cleveland's poor history since 2008, it's still hard to make a case for Tennessee away from home.  Indeed, the Titans have routinely burned money on the road since 2013, as they're 15-29-1 ATS outside The Volunteer State, including 0-2 ATS vs. these Browns.  Meanwhile, Cleveland falls into several strong angles of mine, with records of 66-33, 61-21, 83-47, 81-47 and 65-26 ATS.  A lot of folks are still in a "wait-and-see" mode with Cleveland, after it added Odell Beckham, Jr. in the offseason to a young, and talented corps of offensive players (e.g., Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb).  I'm not waiting.  I'm "all in" right now.  Lay the points with Cleveland.  NFL Game of the Week!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.       

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  Last year, the Rams were my preseason pick (at 10-1 odds) to win the Super Bowl.  I also had the New England Patriots at 5-2 odds to win the AFC.  So, I came very close to being perfect on my preseason predictions.  This year, I went with the Saints (at 10-1 odds) as my preseason Super Bowl pick.  One reason I ultimately decided to not go with the Rams this season is that the loser of the Super Bowl has often struggled the following season.  We saw that last season with Atlanta, which had a losing record the year after it lost the Super Bowl, in overtime, to New England.  Another reason is that the Rams have a somewhat difficult non-division schedule this season, as they have to play road games at Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Atlanta and this game vs. the Panthers.  Last season, they had a relatively easy non-division road schedule, including games against the Raiders, Lions and Broncos.  The Panthers are 23-11 ATS at home vs. non-division foes (including 12-2 ATS when not favored by 3+ points), and they're also 6-2 ATS their last eight as a home underdog.  And they're 8-3 SU and 8-2-1 ATS their last 11 meetings vs. the Rams.  Finally, the Rams fall into negative 2-22 and 6-30 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams in competitively-priced games.  Take Carolina.  NFL High Roller! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Kansas City.  Two years ago, the Jaguars reached the AFC Championship game, and led New England with less than 3 minutes to go before succumbing to defeat, 24-20.  Last season, RB Leonard Fournette went down early with an injury, and the Jaguars' season unraveled from there.  This season, Fournette is healthy, and the Jaguars will also have a better signal caller, as Nick Foles has taken over the reins at QB.  The defense ranked #4 last season in scoring defense, and will once again be fierce, as most of last year's starters are returning.  And the Jaguars also drafted Josh Allen, who was the 2018 Defensive Player of the Year in College Football.  These two teams met last season at Arrowhead Stadium.  Yes, Kansas City won that home game, 30-14.  But it was not a good day for QB Patrick Mahomes.  He was 22 of 38 for 313 yards, and failed to complete a touchdown pass.  He also threw two interceptions, and had the lowest passer rating of his career in that game.  Jacksonville allowed an average of just 195 passing yards per game last season, and I expect it to once again have success vs. Mahomes.  Meanwhile, with Foles and Fournette on the field, Jacksonville should be able to move the ball very well vs. KC's lackluster defense.  Take the home underdog Jaguars.  NFL Roadkill Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the "OVER" in the Pro Bowl.  The line on this game opened signficantly higher, at 60 points, and has come down.  There is rain in the weather forecast for Sunday morning (40% chance), but it is expected to subside by the start of this game.  There's great value at this price, as six of the last nine Pro Bowls have gone 'over' the total, with the average combined score equaling 69.67 ppg. Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over New England, as the Chiefs fall into several of my very best Playoff systems, with records of 84-27, 25-6, 46-14, 91-35, 85-35 and 13-0 ATS since 1980.  We played on both the Chiefs and Patriots big last week.  And they both were able to take advantage of road-weary teams (Colts, Chargers) that were each playing their 3rd straight road game.  Not surprisingly, the home-standing Chiefs and Patriots rolled to easy victories.  For this game, however, the scheduling situation will work against the Patriots.  This will be New England's first road game in 35 days, as it's been at home ever since it traveled (and lost) to Pittsburgh on December 16.  Indeed, New England's been an awful road team this season.  It went 3-5 SU/ATS in its eight road games.  And its only impressive game of its three wins was at Chicago, where it survived to win, 38-31, as a 1-point favorite.  Its other two road wins were against two of the league's bottom-feeders, Buffalo and the NY Jets.  Its five losses were to the Jaguars, Lions, Titans, Dolphins and Steelers, and it failed to cover the spread in those five games by an average of 17.1 ppg.  So, now let's put the Patriots' 2018 road record into context.  In the previous two seasons, New England went 15-1 straight-up in its 16 road games, and 13-3 ATS (covering the point spread by an average of 6.18 ppg).  It's clear that this year's edition of the Patriots is a far cry from the last two seasons, when it reached the Super Bowl both times.  It's true, of course, that New England did defeat these Chiefs in Foxborough, in October.  But Kansas City still covered the 4-point spread.  And KC also has only lost one of its nine games straight-up in Arrowhead this season (29-28 vs. the Chargers), and covered the point spread at home this season by an average of 5.90 ppg.  Last week, the Patriots rolled up 41 points vs. the Chargers, which was just the 2nd time New England scored more than 38 points this season.  Unfortunately, New England also surrendered 28 to the Chargers.  And in this Conference Championship round of the Playoffs, road teams are an awful 0-9 SU/ATS after scoring 27+ points the previous week at home, if they failed to cover the spread by more than 10 points in that victory.  Even better:  NFL revenge-minded teams have covered 62% in the Conference Championship round if they were playing at home with revenge against its opponent.  Take the Chiefs to smash New England.  NFL Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots to go 'over' the total.  These two teams played in October, and the over/under was 59.5 points.  The Patriots won 43-40, and the game sailed OVER the total by 23.5 points.  Now, for this Playoff game, the Over/Under has opened a couple of points lower, which provides us with good value, in my opinion.  Moreover, NFL games, like this one, with very high totals (57 points or higher) generally go OVER the number, as they've gone 19-6-1 OVER since 1980, including a perfect 7-0-1 OVER if it's the last 4 weeks of the regular season, or the Playoffs.  Also, the Patriots have had a stark tendency to play high-scoring Playoff games.  Since 2010, they've gone OVER 14-6-1.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New England Patriots and LA Chargers to go 'over' the total, as it falls into Totals systems of mine that are 52-23 and 32-10.  After missing the Playoffs following their 2008 season, the Patriots have qualified for the post-season every single year.  And, even more impressively, they've owned one of the top 2 seeds (and, thus, at least one home game) in each of these 10 seasons.  And they've been a solid bet to go 'over' the total when playing at home, or on neutral fields.  And especially when the over/under line was greater than 43 points, as they've gone 'over' the total 13-4-1.  It's true that the Chargers have gone 'under' the total their last three games.  But they didn't face a quality offense in those three games (Ravens (twice); Broncos).  The last two times that the Chargers faced a potent offense (Chiefs, Steelers), they went 'over' the total in both games.  Finally, since 1980, in Playoff games between two teams that entered off 'unders' in their previous game, 58% have gone 'over' the total when the over/under line was 43+ points.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Total of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Indianapolis.  Certainly, the Chiefs' lack of playoff success (1-11 record since 1994) hangs like an albatross around their neck.  But from my perspective that factoid is a bunch of noise, and has worked to provide us with point spread value in this game.  Instead, the most important statistic for this game is that the Chiefs had the #1 offense in the league this season (425.6 yards), and scored the most points (35.3).  And if I can play on a rested home team, which has a proficient offense which scores 28+ points a game, and lay less than a touchdown against an opponent playing back-to-back road playoff games, I'm going to do it virtually every time.  Of course, Indianapolis isn't just playing "back-to-back" road games.  This will actually be its 3RD STRAIGHT game away from home.  And NFL road teams have cashed just 35.7 percent in the playoffs if they were playing their 3rd straight on the road.  Take Kansas City to blow out the Colts.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles OVER the total.  The Eagles had a great season last year, and also had a great Playoffs run, as they held the Falcons to 10 points, and the Vikings to just seven points in their two NFC wins before winning the Super Bowl, 41-33, vs. New England.  But without a doubt, the fact that they had the #1 seed, and home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs was a major factor in their success (and ability to hold the Falcons and Vikings to 17 points combined).  This season, it's a completely different story, as they won't play any of their games at home.  And that's problematic, as their defense didn't play well at all this season against teams that are currently in the Playoffs, and especially not on the road.  Philly had six regular season games against other current Playoff teams, and 10 games against teams that failed to make the Playoffs.  In those 6 games against Playoff competition, the Eagles' defense gave up 173 points for an average of 28.8 per game!  And on the road that defensive number ballooned to 33.3 ppg.  In contrast, the Eagles' defense gave up just 17.5 ppg vs. non-playoff teams (and just 16.8 in its road games vs. non-Playoff teams).  This will be a high-scoring game.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Conference Playoff Total of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans over Indianapolis.  This is a great playoffs match-up between two AFC South division rivals that rebounded strongly this season off 4-12 records last year.  These two teams split road wins in their two regular season match-ups, and we cashed tickets in both games.  In the first game, we had a huge play on the Houston Texans, who won, 37-34, at Indianapolis.  Then, in the more recent game, here in Houston, we played on the 'under' 49, and cashed when the Colts won, 24-21.  For this game, we'll take the homestanding Texans, and go against an Indianapolis team off a 33-17 win last Sunday, at Tennessee.  Unfortunately for Frank Reich's men, road teams off a SU/ATS win, with winning SU/ATS records, have fared poorly in divisional match-ups when priced from +1.5 to -6.5 points.  Since 1980, such road teams have covered just 41% of their games.  Even worse for the Colts, AFC South division road teams have covered just one of six Wild Card Playoff games since 2005.  And, finally, revenge-minded teams, like Houston, with win percentages between .600 and .750, that lost the season's previous meeting by less than 4 points, have cashed 94% (15-1 ATS) in the Playoffs.  Take Houston.  NFL Elite Info Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Chicago.  Chicago won the NFC Central, and owns a 12-3 record, while Minnesota is 8-6-1, and is fighting for the 6th (and final) NFC Playoff berth.  It's true that the Bears would like to win this game, provided the 12-3 Rams would be upset by the 49ers, but that eventuality is unlikely to happen.  Thus, Chicago will likely have to settle for a division title, and a Wild Card playoff game.  Minnesota, on the other hand, desperately wants to win this game, as that is its primary pathway into the Playoffs.  I love the Vikings to do just that, as NFL teams that have at least a 2-game (or worse) record than their opponent heading into the final week have cashed 61.2% since 1980 as favorites vs. opponents off a straight-up win.  Moreover, Minnesota is a super 10-0-1 ATS its last 11 regular season games when priced from -3.5 to -13 points.  Take the Vikings.  NFL Division Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders to go 'under' the total.  Both the Chiefs and Raiders have below average-defenses.  The Raiders are giving up a staggering 28.8 ppg, while KC is surrendering 27.9 ppg.  The Chiefs, though, have gone 'under' the total 12-0-1 as a home favorite when matched up against a defense which gives up 28.6 or more ppg.  And, yes, it's true that the Chiefs have played their last five games 'over' the total.  However, since 1980, teams off 5 (or more) straight 'overs' have gone 'under' the total more often than not, including 61.2% in their final regular season game.  I also have 166-99, 74-37 and 86-44 Totals systems on the 'under,' and I expect a relatively low-scoring game on Sunday afternoon.  Take the 'under.'  NFL Total of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Oakland.  The Kansas City Chiefs have been the league's biggest surprise this season, and will likely be the AFC Conference's #1 seed.  But they have not covered the point spread in any of their last six games (0-5-1 ATS).  I expect that to change this Sunday afternoon, as NFL home teams with a win percentage of .727 (or better) have covered 73% over the past 39 years off back to back losses.  Lay the points with the Chiefs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the New England/NY Jets game.  The last five meetings between these two teams have gone 'under' the total.  And that's the way we'll look in this game, as the 'under' falls into a 94-57 Totals system of mine.  Additionally, the Jets lost at home last week, in overtime, 44-38, to the Green Bay Packers.  The over/under line for that game was 47.5, so it went 'over' the total by 34.5 points.  But teams that go significantly 'over' the total one week, tend to play lower-scoring games the next.  And especially if they were at home for the (first) higher-scoring game, and are now on the road for the (second) lower-scoring game.  Indeed, NFL teams that went 'over' the total at home by more than 31 points in their previous game have gone 'under' the total 69.6% of the time on the road when the line was 42+ points.  Take the 'under.'  AFC East Total of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Atlanta Falcons.  This matchup is between two teams that both had disappointing seasons.  Tampa Bay is 5-10, with three straight losses coming into this game, while Atlanta is 6-9, though it's won its last two games.  Since 1980, NFL teams have cashed just 38.1% in their final road game of the season, if they won and covered their two previous games, while their opponent was off back to back losses.  Take Tampa Bay.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants minus the points over Dallas.  The Cowboys have clinched the NFC East Division title, and are locked into the #4 seed, so this game is meaningless for them.  Thus, the 6-10 Giants are favored by a healthy amount over the 9-6 Cowboys.  Obviously, this type of situation occurs every season in the NFL where really good teams have little incentive to play their top players in the final week or two.  And in the season's final two weeks, when teams with a win percentage at least .250 percentage points worse than their opponent's, are favored by more than three points, then our favored team has covered 70.5% of the time over the past 39 years.  Take the Giants.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Denver.  Last week, the Raiders were blown out, 30-16, by the Cincinnati Bengals.  But off that 14-point loss, we'll step in and take the points with Oakland as a home underdog.  Indeed, I have several very good systems that back the Raiders tonight.  First, consider that since 1980, home underdogs have gone 177-130-11 ATS at Game 14 forward, if they were off a SU/ATS loss.  And, second, teams playing their last home game of the season have gone 70.7 percent ATS since 1980, if they owned a W/L record less than .400 and their opponent's W/L percentage was less than .429.  Take the Raiders tonight + the points.   Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over Kansas City.  The Seahawks were upset last week by the 49ers in San Francisco.  That dropped Seattle's record to 8-6, so it needs to win to remain in the Wild Card hunt.  Seattle's been installed as an underdog vs. the AFC's top-seeded Chiefs.  But I love Seattle to pull the upset, as NFL home dogs (or PK) off an upset loss, with a win percentage between .501 and .667. have cashed 70.9% over the past 34 years vs. .687 (or better) opposition.  Moreover, the Seahawks have long had one of the best home fields in the league.  And Seattle's been especially strong toward the end of the season, as it is 70-39-7 ATS at home in their final three regular season home games (or the post-season) since 1983, including 24-7-1 ATS as a home underdog.  Take the Seahawks.  Sunday Night Football Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over Pittsburgh.  We had a big play on the Steelers last week over New England, and were rewarded with a 17-10 upset win.  Meanwhile, the Saints eked out a Monday Night Football win at Carolina, 12-9.  It's true that New Orleans' offense has been held in check in two of their last three games, as New Orleans also scored just 10 points at Dallas back on November 29.  But it's also true that New Orleans' last three games were all on the road.  At home this season, in six games, New Orleans has scored 228 points for an average of 38 ppg!  And the Saints have won and covered their last four home games.  Meanwhile, the Steelers haven't covered any of their last three road games, and even lost outright their last two -- as an 11-point favorite vs. Oakland, and as a 3-point favorite vs. Denver.  It's true that Ben Roethlisberger is a very good quarterback.  And he has some great weapons in Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster.  But Pittsburgh's offense isn't in the same league as the Saints' offense.  And Steelers coach Mike Tomlin can't hold a candle on the offensive side of the football to the Saints' Sean Payton.  Indeed, Payton may be the best offensive mind in the game.  And he's at his best when matched up against other teams whose offenses score more than 24 points per game.  Since 2008, with Payton as head coach, the Saints are a staggering 40-15 straight-up and 42-12-1 ATS vs. foes that score more than 24 points per game.  This will be another Saints Blowout.  Lay the points. NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers to go 'over' the total.  The Saints scored just 12 points last week.  But they generally bounce back on offense after such poor games.  And New Orleans has gone 'over' the total 86% under coach Sean Payton after not scoring 14+ points in their previous game.  And the Saints have also gone 'over' the total in 30 of 39 non-division home games vs. winning teams off a straight-up win.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Carolina/Atlanta game.  The Panthers have shelved star QB Cam Newton for their final two games of the season and will give backup QB Taylor Heinicke his first two career starts.  Heinicke has thrown just five passes in his NFL career, so it's an understatement to say nobody really knows what to expect from him this afternoon.  However, one thing I do expect is that Carolina's defense will play very well once again today.  Last week, it shut down the high-flying New Orleans offense, and held Drew Brees & Co. to just 12 points.  Nine of the last 11 meetings between these two teams have gone 'under' the total, including all five played here in Carolina.  And games between two losing teams (with win percentages below .450), in the final two weeks of the season, have gone 'under' the total 95 of 152 games (62.5%) since 1980.  Take the 'under.'  NFL Total of the Week!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Bucs to go 'over' the total.  Tampa Bay has generally played high-scoring games away from home, and low-scoring games at home.  To wit;  Tampa has gone 'over' the total in 13 of its last 16 road games (compared to going under in 14 of its last 18 home games).  I look for that trend to continue on this Sunday, and especially given that the Cowboys have gone 'over' the total in five of their last six home games.  Take the 'over.'

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals to go 'under' the total.  After giving up 134 points in a four-week stretch from October 14 thru November 4, the Browns defense has played very well, and has averaged just 20.2 ppg over their last five games.  Not surprisingly, four of those five games went 'under' the total.  Additionally, the last five games between these two teams played here in Cleveland have gone 'under.'  And the Browns' final home game of the season has gone 'under' 13-4-1 the past 18 seasons.  Take the 'under.'

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Buffalo.  The Bills have been awful over the years in their final road game of the season.  Since 1980, they've gone 12-24-2 ATS, including 5-16-1 ATS as an underdog.  That doesn't bode well for them this afternoon.  And neither does the fact that the Patriots have lost back to back games.  Since November 2002, the Patriots are 9-0 straight-up, and 8-1 ATS off back to back losses (with their only ATS defeat being by just 2.5 points).  Take New England.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Miami.  We played against Miami last week, and easily got the $$$ with the Vikings, who blew out the Dolphins, 41-17.  We will once again fade the Dolphins, as they're a horrid 35-65-3 ATS at home when not getting more than 3 points, including just 3-19 ATS when they're off a loss, and favored vs. non-division foes.  Take Jacksonville.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over New England.  Since 1980, home dogs from Game 14 forward, off back to back SU/ATS losses, are 93-59 ATS.  Take the Steelers to bounce back off their 3 straight losses.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over the Miami Dolphins.  Last week, the Dolphins won one of the more miraculous games in NFL history, ranking right up there with Pittsburgh's Immaculate Reception (1972) vs. Oakland, and last season's Playoff win by the Vikings over the Saints, when Case Keenum connected with Stefon Diggs on a 61-yard TD pass on the game's final play.  Of course, everyone remembers those historic plays, but it's also important to remember what happened to those teams the next week.  The Steelers, of course, lost to the Dolphins in the AFC Championship game, while Minnesota was blown out by the Eagles in last year's NFC Title game.  Miami's win did place it back in the playoff hunt for this season, but their euphoria should be short-lived, as I expect Minnesota to rout them this afternoon.  Since 1980, NFL road teams in non-division games have cashed just 30% off division upset wins when they were a 6-point (or greater) underdog in that upset win.  Even worse:  if our play-against team (here, Miami) owned a .500 (or better) SU/ATS record, then our negative 30% ATS system crashes to 16% ATS since 1980.  This will be a blowout.  Lay the points with the Vikings.  NFL Non-Division Game of the Month.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos over Cleveland.  Last week, the Broncos were upset on the road by San Francisco, while Cleveland won outright as a home underdog vs. Carolina.  Since 1980, NFL home teams have cashed 63% off an upset road defeat if their opponent was off an upset home win.  Take Denver to blow out the Browns on Saturday night.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Kansas City/Los Angeles game.  The Chiefs have gone 'over' the total in their last three games, while the Chargers have gone 'over' in two of their past three.  And both teams are scoring a lot of points this year, as the Chargers average over 28 ppg, and the Chiefs average over 36 ppg.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the 'over,' but consider that NFL games between two teams that each average 28+ ppg on offense have gone UNDER the total 64.8% since 1980, if at least one of the two teams played its three previous games 'over' the total.  The 'under' also falls into two other totals systems of mine that have records of 85-43 and 76-36 since 1980.  This game will be low-scoring.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over Minnesota.  These two playoff contenders are separated by a mere half-game, as Seattle is 7-5, while Minnesota is 6-5-1.  But, for my money, Seattle is the much more impressive team, as it's played a much more difficult schedule.  Compare Minnesota's home schedule to Seattle's.  Of Minny's 6 home games, four were against creampuffs (49ers, Bills, Cardinals, Lions), and it actually lost to one of them!  Seattle, on the other hand, has played just one weak opponent (49ers) so far at home, but has also played three playoff teams (Rams, Chargers, Cowboys) among its five home opponents.  And, even though Seattle has had a daunting home schedule, it's only lost both straight-up and ATS to one team (Chargers).  Meanwhile, Minnesota has covered just two (Eagles, Jets) of its six road games, though neither of those two opponents will be making the Playoffs this season.  Seattle falls into several of my favorite Monday Night Football Systems, with records of 117-55, 95-52, 80-37, 73-32, 68-28 and 57-21 ATS.  Lay the small number with the Seahawks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over Los Angeles.  The Rams will try to make it a 4-0 SWEEP over the NFC North teams, as they defeated Minnesota and Green Bay earlier this year at home, and then downed Detroit on the road last week, 30-16.  But winning and covering back to back road games will be difficult for the Rams.  The last time they pulled off that trick was in Weeks 3, 4 in 2016.  Since then, they've played back to back road games four times, but weren't able to win and cover each of the two games in those successive weeks.  I love Chicago in this home underdog spot.  The Bears were upset on the road last week, 30-27, as a 3.5-point favorite by the New York Giants.  But winning teams have cashed a staggering 82% at home the past 39 years as an underdog (or pk) vs. .670 (or better) foes, if our home team was upset in its previous game as a 3-point (or greater) favorite.  Take the Bears.  NFC Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over Dallas.  Last week, the Cowboys upset the New Orleans Saints by a score of 13-10.  And Dallas is now 7-5 this season, and has the NFC East division lead (by 1 game) over Philadelphia, which is 6-6.  Of course, the reason Dallas is one game ahead is because it upset the Eagles earlier this season, 27-20, as a 7.5-point road underdog.  I look for Philly to avenge that defeat, as NFL underdogs have cashed 65.7% since 1980 when playing with revenge from a loss where they were favored by 7+ points.  Lay the points.  NFL Division Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over Arizona.  The Arizona Cardinals had only defeated one other team (San Francisco, twice) before it stunned Green Bay on the road last week, 20-17, as a 13.5-point underdog.  So, it was no surprise that the Packers fired head coach Mike McCarthy following that loss.  Can Arizona make it two upset wins in a row?  It's not likely, as teams that won outright as a 13.5-point (or greater) underdog are 1-18 straight-up and 0-17-2 ATS since December 1995.  Detroit, meanwhile, lost 30-16 at home to the 11-1 Rams last week.  But Detroit is a super 35-10-3 ATS on the road off a loss by 13+ points.  Take Detroit. NFL Perfect 10 Club play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Pittsburgh.  The Steelers come into this game off back to back upset losses (at Denver Broncos; home vs. LA Chargers).  And the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the AFC North division leaders to bounce back in this critical game.  But winning teams have actually burned money on the road off back to back upset defeats, and especially when they've been favored by a touchdown or more, as they've cashed just 33% since 1980.  Take the Raiders as a double-digit home dog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers + the points over Denver.  The 49ers return home after getting walloped by Seattle, 43-16, in their last game.  But off that 27-point defeat, I love the Niners to rebound as a home underdog.  Indeed, since 1980, home underdogs have cashed 65% off a loss by 27+ points, if they were playing a .500 (or better) opponent off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Even better:  Denver is an awful 22-38-3 ATS on the road off a double-digit win when playing a non-division foe, including 1-10 ATS if that foe failed to cover the spread by 10+ points in its previous game.  Take the 49ers + the points.  NFL Roadkill play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens under the total.  The Chiefs have racked up 37 points per game, which is #1 in the NFL.  But they will find it much more difficult to score on Sunday afternoon vs. this Ravens defense, which ranks #1 in both yards (281.7) and points (17.8) per game.  To wit:  the Chiefs have played only one other team currently ranked among the Top 5 in defensive yards given up (Jacksonville), and that was the 2nd lowest-scoring game (30-14) that KC has played all season, and it easily went 'under' the total.  The Chiefs are 3-0-1 'under' the total in their last four home games, 8-1-1 'under' in their last 10 at home, and 19-6-1 their last 26.  Finally, the 'under' falls into a 59-27 Totals system of mine.  Take the 'under.'  NFL Total of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Houston/Indianapolis game.  After giving up an average of 27 ppg in their first four contests, the Texans have played MUCH BETTER defense over their last eight games.  Houston hasn't given up more than 23 points in any of its last eight, and has averaged just 15.8 ppg on defense.  Not surprisingly, five of these eight games have gone 'under' the total.  Last week, Indianapolis completely failed to score in a 6-0 shutout loss to Jacksonville.  And that was the 3rd straight game the Colts have played 'under' the total.  With NFL teams off shutout losses going 'under' in 28 of their last 42 games, I look for a relatively low-scoring game here.  Take the 'under.'

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Tampa Bay/New Orleans game.  After scoring an average of 43.7 points over their previous four games, the Saints' offense sputtered last week, when it tallied just 10 points, in a 13-10 loss at Dallas.  And that was the 3rd straight New Orleans game that went 'under' the total.  Likewise, Tampa Bay has been playing 'unders' lately, with 3 of its last 4 games going 'under.'  I look for a low-scoring game in Central Florida, as Tampa Bay has gone 'under' in 23 of 30 home games with lines of 47+ points, including 13-2 'under' if the Bucs were installed as a home underdog of 3+ points.  Additionally, the 'under' falls into a 163-97 Totals system of mine.  Take the 'under.'

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Jacksonville.  The Jacksonville Jaguars snapped their seven-game losing streak last week when they shut out Indianapolis, 6-0.  But with a 4-8 record, it's definitely a case of "too little, too late," as Jacksonville has virtually no chance to make the playoffs.  QB Cody Kessler will make his second start for the Jaguars this Thursday night.  But even though Kessler led the Jaguars to victory last week, he's still just 1-8 as a starter in his career.  And his team will also be facing a much better defensive club in the Titans than it did last week vs. the Colts.  Indeed, Tennessee ranks among the Top 10 in total defense, pass defense and scoring defense.  I look for the Titans to blow out Jacksonville, as losing NFL teams are an awful 9-29 ATS off a home shutout victory, including 1-12 ATS as underdogs of less than 7 points.  Take Tennessee.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over Washington.  The Eagles come into this game with a losing record (5-6, .454), and on a 3-game ATS losing streak, after defeating the NY Giants, 25-22.  Meanwhile Washington is a game better at 6-5 (.545), following its 31-23 loss to Dallas.  With the Cowboys leading the division with a 7-5 record, this game is ultra-critical for both clubs.  We'll lay the points with Philly, as defending Super Bowl Champs, not off a SU/ATS win, have cashed 68.9% at home since 1984 against division opponents off a loss.  Even better:  in weekday football games, favorites off back to back ATS losses have cashed 58.2% since 1980.  Finally, no team has performed worse than Washington on Monday Night Football.  The Redskins are 15-39 SU and 16-37-1 ATS on Mondays since 1980, including 2-14 SU the past 11 years, and 0-6 SU/ATS since 2015.  Philly also falls into 61-19 and 91-33 ATS Monday Night Football systems of mine.  Take Philadelphia.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Tennessee.  The Jets have lost their last five games -- both straight-up and ATS.  Meanwhile, Tennessee hasn't been much better, as it's off back to back blowout losses.  So, each team will attempt to right the ship on this Sunday afternoon.  We will side with the road underdog Jets.  One of the things I love to do is play on teams that are on long (5+ games) SU/ATS losing streaks, as one often gets good point spread value.  Indeed, NFL teams have cashed 66 of 101 non-division games when they've lost (both SU/ATS) their last five games.  Take the Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Detroit Lions/Los Angeles Rams game.  The Rams enter this game off 3 extremely high-scoring games (45-35, 36-31 and 54-51).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game, given that Detroit has also gone 'over' the total in a majority of its contests.  But consider that favorites (like Los Angeles) that gave up 100+ points on defense over their last three games, while going over the total in each by at least 5+ points, have then gone 'under' the total 80 percent (24-6) of the time.  Even better:  games involving double-digit home underdogs have sailed 'under' the total 24 of the last 31.  Take the 'under.'

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over Green Bay.  The Packers, at 4-6-1, have their proverbial backs against the wall, as they will need to win their last five games of the season if they are to have a chance at the post-season.  Arizona, of course, doesn't have that problem, as it is 2-9, and won't be playing in January.  The problem for Green Bay has been its defense.  Since shutting out the woeful Bills in Week 4, the Packers have given up 31, 30, 29, 31, 12, 27 and 24 points, for an average of 26.3 ppg over their last seven.  For the season, their number is not much better, at 24.3.  It's dangerous to lay a lot of points with bad defensive clubs, no matter the opposition.  Indeed, since 1980, favorites of -8 or more points, with a defensive ppg. average of 23.67, have gone 39-80 ATS at Game 6 forward.  Arizona's 10-1 ATS its last 11 off back to back losses, if it owned a losing record.  Take the points with the Cardinals.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  The Rams have scored 54, 36 and 35 points in their three previous games.  In contrast, the Lions have scored just 16, 20 and 22 points in their last three games — a total of 58 points, or 67 points less than the Rams’ aggregate total of 125 points.   Unfortunately for Los Angeles, NFL teams that scored 123 or more points over their three previous games have gone 0-9 ATS on the road since 2001 vs. opponents off a loss.  Even better:  Detroit's been installed as a double-digit home underdog.  And home dogs of +10 or more points have gone 70-34 ATS since 1982 vs. opponents off a home win.  Take the Lions + the points.  NFL Shocker of the Month!

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins minus the points over Buffalo.  The Dolphins are off back to back SU road losses to Green Bay and Indianapolis.  But they were big underdogs (+9 vs. Indy; +11.5 vs. GB) in those two road games.  That's not the case here, as Miami is favored at home.  Meanwhile, Buffalo enters off back to back upset wins at the New York Jets, and at home vs. Jacksonville.  But before one congratulates the Bills for those two wins, it's worth noting that the Jets are on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak, while Jacksonville has lost its last 7 games!  Since 1980, NFL home favorites of -3 or more points, off back to back road losses, have covered 72% vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  This season, the Dolphins 5-6 SU and 6-5 ATS.  But all six of Miami's losses came when they were an underdog of +3 or more points.  When Miami hasn't been an underdog of 3+ points, then it's 3-0 SU/ATS this season, and 10-3-2, 77% ATS its last 15.  Take the Dolphins to blow out Buffalo.  NFL Division Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Tampa Bay/Carolina game.  Tampa Bay has played 12 of its last 16 home games 'under' the total, including last week's 27-9 victory over San Francisco.  And since 1980, teams that held their previous opponent to less than 10 points have gone 'under' the total 71% of the time when the line was greater than 54 points.  Even better:  the Panthers have gone 'under' 57-33 when they've been favored by more than 3 points, including 26-9 when playing a division rival.  Finally, the 'under' falls into 162-97 and 55-24 Totals Systems of mine.  This will be a relatively low-scoring game.  Take the 'under.'  NFL Total of the Week!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Baltimore.  The Falcons are 4-7, and off three straight losses, while Baltimore enters this game off back to back wins.  Of course, their competition had much to do with the results.  Atlanta's last two games were against the Saints and Cowboys, among the league's hottest teams.  In contrast, Baltimore's two wins were vs. the Raiders and the injury-riddled Bengals.  We'll lay the points with Atlanta, as NFL home teams off 3+ losses have gone 92-53 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes off a double-digit win, if that foe also won two games back.  Take Atlanta.  NFL Roadkill Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.