At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens and NY Giants to go OVER the total.  Lamar Jackson & Co. have now scored 34, 47 and 40 points in their last three games.  Not surprisingly, each went 'over' the total.  And that's the way we will look in this game vs. New York, as five of the last six meetings between these teams have sailed 'over' the total.  It's true that the Giants' last few games have gone 'under,' but they've now gone 'over' 29-11 in games with O/U lines less than 48 points, if their two previous games went 'under.'  This will be a relatively-high scoring game.  Take the 'over.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over Miami.  The Dolphins upset division rival New England, 22-12, as a 1-point home dog last week.  And they've now been installed as a road favorite at Las Vegas.  We will go against Miami on Saturday night, as non-division road favorites have covered just 35.2% over the last 40 years if they were off an upset win at home over a division rival.  Even worse:  Miami has covered just 9 of 37 games, itself, off an upset win the previous week against a division foe, including 1-10 ATS its last 10 as a favorite of more than 2 points.  Take the Raiders + the points as a home underdog.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 'under' the total.  Last week, the Buccaneers spotted the Atlanta Falcons 17 points, and trailed 17-0 at the half, before storming back in the 2nd half for a 31-27 victory.  They're now installed as a double-digit favorite at Detroit, which lost 46-25 at Tennessee last Sunday.  Both of these teams have played their games predominantly over the total this season.  Detroit has gone 9-5 'over,' while Tampa has gone 8-6 'over.'  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game here.  But be careful, as NFL games between two teams whose previous games both totaled 58+ points have also gone 'under' the total 57% over the last 41 years.  The 'under' also falls into 102-47, 107-76 and 267-211 Totals systems of mine.  This will be a relatively-low scoring game.  Take the Lions and Bucs 'under' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals to go 'over' the total.  Both of these teams come into this Monday night game off a string of 4 unders in a row.  The Steelers' last four games have averaged 36 ppg, while Cincinnati's last four have averaged just 32 ppg.  Pittsburgh's problems have largely been on the offensive side of the ball, as they've not scored 20+ points in any of their last 3 games (after scoring 24+ in each of their first 10 games this season).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here.  But consider that NFL games have gone over the total 58% of the time over the last 41 seasons if both teams were riding an 'under' streak of at least four games.  That bodes well for the 'OVER' tonight.  As does the fact that the Steelers have sailed 'over' the total in 26 of 44 if they were on a 2-game (or worse) losing streak.   Take the Monday Night game 'over' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Cleveland Browns.  Each of these two teams had its four-game win streak snapped last week.  Cleveland fell at home, 47-42, to Baltimore, while the Giants also lost at home, 26-7, to Arizona.  Both of these teams remain in contention for division titles:  New York sits one game behind the 6-7 Football Team, while the Browns are two games behind the 11-2 Steelers.  However, Cleveland's path to the playoffs, as a wild card entrant, is much more secure, as the Browns currently are tied for fifth place in the AFC.  We'll take the points with the home underdog Giants, as NFL home dogs have cashed 61.1% of non-division games at Game 14 forward if they were off a SU/ATS loss.  Even better:  NFL home dogs have gone 69-42 ATS in the regular season if they were off a double-digit loss, but had won their four games previous to that defeat.  And, finally, the Browns are 0-6 ATS their last six as road favorites.  Grab the points with New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Kansas City.  Last week, the Saints were upset on the road at Philly.  But off that upset loss, I love New Orleans to bounce back against Kansas City on Sunday afternoon.  Indeed, in the 2nd half of the season, winning teams have cashed 64% over the last 41 years off an upset loss.  That's one reason I am going with New Orleans in an underdog role.  Another is that the Saints, with Sean Payton as head coach, have gone 57-24-3 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes off a straight-up win, including a perfect 10-0 ATS at home when not laying more than 2 points.  The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 5 games.  And defending Super Bowl champs are now 0-16 ATS their last 16 games as non-division road favorites vs. .550 (or better) foes, if the defending champs were off a SU win.  Take New Orleans + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Philadelphia.  The Cardinals bounced back off their 38-28 loss to the Los Angeles Rams by blowing out the NY Giants last Sunday, 26-7.  In the process, the Cards improved to 7-6, and are still alive for a post-season berth.  This weekend, they'll face another NFC East division foe, in Philadelphia.  The Eagles pulled off a major upset last week when they stunned New Orleans, 24-21, as a 7.5-point home underdog.  But off that big win, we will fade Philly this week.  Indeed, NFL underdogs of +6 (or more) points off a home upset victory over a .636 (or better) opponent, as a 6.5-point (or bigger) underdog, have generally had letdowns the following week, as they've covered just 12 of 50 games since 1991.  Even better:  if their opponent comes into the game off a straight-up win, then our system zooms to 19-3-1 ATS.  Take Arizona to blow out the Eagles.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Philadelphia/Arizona game.  The Cardinals' last four home games vs. non-division foes have gone 'over' the total, as have 29 of Philly's last 44 road games.  It's true that the Eagles had played six straight 'unders' before going over the total in last week's 24-21 victory over New Orleans.  But I consider that game a harbinger of things to come (at least, from an over/under perspective) as over the last 41 years, teams that finally go 'over' the total after 5+ unders, tend to go over the total a 2nd straight game more often than not.  Additionally, the Eagles and Cardinals fall into a Totals system of mine that has cashed 67% since 1980.  Take the Philadelphia/Arizona game OVER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Detroit.  As of this writing, Lions QB Matthew Stafford is questionable to play on Sunday.  Regardless, we're going to go against the Lions, and lay the points with Tennessee.  Detroit's 5-8 on the season, while the Titans are 9-4.  And the Lions were unable to win at home last week against their division rival, Green Bay.  So, it's difficult to make a case for it on Sunday, in their final road game of the season, against a motivated, non-division foe.  The technicals back this up, as losing NFL teams playing their final road game against winning, non-division foes, have covered just 35.5% over the last 41 years if they lost at home the previous week.  Meanwhile, this will be Tennessee's final home game of the season.  And, with two road games on deck, it takes on added significance for Tennessee, given it's currently tied atop the division with Indianapolis.  Since 1980, winning NFL teams playing their final home game have cashed 63.2% when installed as a double-digit favorite vs. foes off a SU loss.  Lay the points with the Titans.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Miami/New England game.  The Patriots have played each of their last five games 'under' the total.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here, especially given that the Patriots scored just three points last week, and that the last meeting between these clubs totaled just 32 points.  But teams off 4+ unders have tended to go OVER the total when the line was 42 points or less (349-298 OVER).  Moreover, New England has gone over in 11 of 13 after scoring less than 10 points.  And division match-ups have gone over 282-231 when the first meeting of the season totaled less than 33 points.  Take the Patriots and Dolphins to go OVER the total.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Las Vegas Raiders/Los Angeles Chargers game.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the 'over' tonight, given that the previous meeting totaled 57 points, and that each team has played a majority of its games over the total this season.  But we're going to run the other way, as six of the last eight (and 20 of the last 31) meetings between these two division rivals have gone 'under' the total.  Additionally, in its last game, Las Vegas combined for 71 points with the Indianapolis Colts (a 44-27 defeat).  But over the last 41 years, NFL division games have gone 'under' the total 66.1% of the time when the team's previous game totaled more than 58 points, and both the team's games, and its foe's games averaged 50+ points on the season.  Finally, the 'under' falls into 18-3, 101-46 and 123-84 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Steelers lost for the first time last week, 23-17, as a 5.5-point favorite, after 11 straight wins to open the season.  And it was the (now 5-7) Washington Football Team which handed Pittsburgh its first loss -- and at Heinz Field, no less.  In stark contrast, the Bills played, perhaps, their best game of the season, as they went out to the west coast (Arizona) to play a good 49ers team, and upset them, 34-24, as a 2-point underdog.  That was the first time the Bills won as an underdog away from home since the last time these two teams met (Dec. 15, 2019), when Buffalo won 17-10 at Pittsburgh.  Off those two results, we'll play on Buffalo as a small home favorite on Sunday night.  For technical support, consider that, in the last four weeks of the season (and the Playoffs), NFL home favorites off a SU/ATS win, in which they covered by more than 10 points, have cashed 64.3% vs. road underdogs off a SU/ATS loss, in which they failed to cover by more than 10 points.  And the Steelers are an atrocious 8-26-1 ATS on the non-division road, if they owned a .727 (or better) win percentage, and weren't getting 3+ points.  Take the Bills.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers over the Atlanta Falcons.  To say the Chargers played last week the worst game of this current NFL season would not be an overstatement.  After all, they were favored by 2.5 points against New England, but lost 45-0.  Not only was that the worst performance -- relative to the point spread -- of any team this season, but it was just the second time since 1980 that an NFL favorite failed to cover the spread by more than 46 points.  After the game, the Chargers' players were saying all the right things.  Even QB Justin Herbert defended his coach's much-maligned decision to keep his rookie signal caller on the field throughout the blowout since, as he put it, he just wants to "be out there and give everything [he has]."  I believe Los Angeles will bounce back strong off that debacle.  And, for technical support, consider that NFL home underdogs (or PK), off a 35-point (or worse) defeat, have gone 50-29-2 ATS.  Additionally, Atlanta is 1-7 ATS its last eight as a road favorite.  And losing teams (like the Falcons) are a soft 17-33-1 ATS the last four weeks of the season as road favorites vs. foes off losses by more than 15 points.  Take the Chargers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Green Bay/Detroit game.  The Packers come into this afternoon's game off back to back wins over Chicago (41-25) and Philadelphia (30-16).  Meanwhile, Detroit has played back to back high-scoring games its last two outings, as it lost 41-25 to Houston, and then defeated the Bears, 34-30, last week.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game here, as Green Bay's scored more than 70 points combined over its last two games, while Detroit's given up more than 70 points over its last two contests.  But over the last 41 years, NFL games have gone 'under' the total 58% when the underdog gave up more than 70 points over its last two games, and its opponent scored more than 70 in its last two.  Additionally, the 'under' falls into 127-77 and 62-28 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Las Vegas/Indianapolis game.  Through 12 games, both Las Vegas and Indianapolis own winning records, and are in contention for the playoffs.  But it's the last few weeks of the regular seasons that separate the contenders from the pretenders.  And all the teams understand how important defense is at this time of the year, as that old adage -- defense wins championships -- is actually very true when it comes to the NFL.  Not surprisingly, match-ups between winning teams in the final 6 weeks of the NFL season tend to go 'under' the total, and especially if the line is greater than 46 points, as those games have gone 'under' 60% of the time.  Take the 'under.'

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Seattle/New York game.  After scoring 10 points or less in four straight games (all of which went 'under' the total), the hapless Jets have quietly scored 27+ points in three of their last four games.  Not surprisingly, all three of those games sailed 'over' the total.  Now, New York will go up against a below-average Seahawks defense which is giving up 26.8 ppg (against foes that average 24.5).  So, New York -- which averages just 15 ppg -- will likely be able to exceed that number.  Still, defeating a Seattle team which was upset at home last week by the New York Giants will be a tall order.  And, since Pete Carroll was hired almost 11 years ago, the Seahawks have generally won and covered high-scoring games at home off a loss.  And 10 of 13 Seattle home games have gone 'over' the total if Seattle lost its previous game, and the line was greater than 43 points.  I look for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  Take the 'over.'

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Tennessee/Jacksonville game.  The Titans have played their last four games 'over' the total, including last week's 41-35 loss to Cleveland.  But each of those four games was against a winning, playoff-bound team.  Here, they're going to take on a Jacksonville team which has lost 11 straight games, and is averaging less than 21 points per game.  And, late in the season (the final four weeks), really bad teams -- with win percentages less than .200 -- have gone 'under' the total 77% of the time over the last 40 seasons when the O/U line has been greater than 46 points.  Even better:  the Jaguars have gone under in 18 of 29 home games.  And road favorites of -3 (or more) points, like Tennessee, have gone 'under' 76% of the time over the last 40 seasons when the line was 51+ points.  This will be a relatively-low scoring game.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over New England.  The Patriots come into Thursday night's game off back to back upset wins.  Two weeks ago, Bill Belichick's men upset Arizona, 20-17, in Foxborough, and followed that victory up with a 45-0 shutout of the Chargers, in Los Angeles.  They now will play the other Los Angeles team -- also on the road -- as they look to improve their W/L record to 7-6 in a last-ditch attempt to get back into playoff contention.  Unfortunately, they're not likely to find success.  First, from a technical standpoint, .500 (or better) NFL clubs off back to back upset wins, are a horrible 33-66 ATS on the road in non-division games.  Even worse:  the Patriots are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS as an underdog off back to back upsets, while the Rams are 11-3 SU and 9-4-1 ATS as a home favorite.  Take Sean McVay's team minus the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over Baltimore.  The Ravens have dropped their last three games, while Dallas was upset its last time out, on Thanksgiving Day, by the Football Team.  The final score of that game was Washington 41 Dallas 16, so it was a most embarrassing loss for Dallas.  I look for it to rebound tonight, as teams off upset losses by 20+ points have gone 108-69-4 ATS on the road.  Meanwhile, NFL teams, like Baltimore, off 3+ losses, have covered just 18 of 54 regular season games over the last 34 years.  This past weekend, the season-long trend of the underdogs cashing continued, as the dogs barked loudly, and went 9-5.  For the entire season, they're 110-81 ATS. And they've also gone 20-11 ATS this season on the weekday games, and 37-20 ATS off a home loss.  Take Dallas + the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers over the Buffalo Bills.  The Bills are 8-3 (.727), while the 49ers are 5-6 (.454), but the oddsmakers have made this game a near-PK'em.  It might look easy to take the team with the much better record, but be careful.  On Monday Night Football, when a team has owned a win percentage at least .200 better than its foe (at Game 12 forward), and it wasn't favored by more than 4 points, it's gone 1-13 SU/ATS.  That doesn't bode well for Buffalo on this Monday night.  And neither does the fact that the 49ers are an awesome 40-11 1 ATS on Monday Night Football when they weren't favored by more than 10 points, while Buffalo is 0-6-2 ATS on the Monday Night road when they were playing a non-division foe, and were not getting 7+ points!  Take the 49ers to blow out Buffalo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Kansas City Chiefs/Denver Broncos game.  The Chiefs have gone 'under' the total in 21 of their last 28 division games with over/under lines of 47+ points, while Denver has gone 'under' in 23 of its last 31 division games with an over/under line greater than 42 points.  Not surprisingly, then, this series has gone 8-1-1 'under' the total when the line has been 48+ points.  This game, in particular, has all the earmarks of an 'under.'  The Chiefs are a double-digit favorite against an offensively-challenged Broncos team, with a high over/under line.  And the technicals back this up, as games that involve a 7-point (or greater) underdog which scores less than 19.6 ppg, have gone 'under' 100-65-2 when the line was 47+ points.  Even better:  The Chiefs have gone 'under' the total in 22 of their last 27 home games against teams with a negative scoring margin of -1.8 (or worse), including 6-0 'under' when KC was favored by more than 11 points.  This will be a relatively-low scoring game.  Take the Chiefs/Broncos 'under' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers over the New England Patriots.  Los Angeles has dropped its last five games against the spread.  But I love it to get into the win column on this Sunday, as teams off 5+ point spread defeats have gone 62-34-4 ATS since 1980 if they owned a losing record, and were playing a non-division opponent off a SU win.  Even better:  the Patriots are 0-6 ATS their last six, and 2-10 ATS their last 12 vs. foes on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Take the Chargers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints OVER the total.  The Saints have gone 'under' in each of their last four games (after starting the season with seven straight 'overs,' while Atlanta's previous two games have gone 'under.'  So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a low-scoring game here.  Don't do it.  Generally speaking, teams off 4+ unders tend to go 'over' in their next game, including 58.3% since 1980 when the line was greater than 45 points and their opponent was also off an 'under.'  Take the 'over' in the Saints/Falcons game.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders to go OVER the total.  The Raiders generally go 'over' the total on the non-division road, including an 18-6-2 Over record when the line has been less than 49 points.  Likewise, the Jets have gone 18-8 Over at home in non-division games with lines less than 49 points.  Five of the last seven meetings between these teams have gone over the total, and we'll look for another high-scoring game here, as I believe the two teams will bounce back off their poor offensive performances last week.  The Jets only scored 3 vs. Miami, while Las Vegas managed just 6 at Atlanta.  But NFL games, with lines greater than 40 points, have gone over 62% of the time if the two teams combined for less than 10 points on offense their previous game.  Take the OVER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over New Orleans.  It always pains me to go against the Saints (who I selected in the preseason to win the Super Bowl (at 10-1 odds)).  But we've got to do it this afternoon, given their recent hot streak (8 straight wins, 4 straight covers), and absence of Drew Brees on the field.  And even though New Orleans dominated Atlanta in the 2nd half of the game two weeks ago -- to pull away for a 24-9 win -- we'll grab the points with the Falcons in the rematch.  In that game, which was at New Orleans, the Falcons were a 3-point road underdog.  Now, the line is the same, even though the Falcons are the home team.  There's point spread value on the Atlanta side.  Moreover, NFL teams off 8+ wins, and 4+ covers are 0-9 ATS their last nine, and 4-16 ATS their last 20!  That doesn't bode well for the Saints on Sunday.  And the Saints also fall into negative 75-140 and 34-69 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Falcons + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  I'm well aware that the Jets are a bad football team.  You don't start the season with 11 straight losses if you're not.  But I'm never averse to taking points with bad NFL teams.  However, what I'm loath to do is to lay a lot of points with bad teams.  Now, an argument can be made that the Raiders aren't a "bad" team.  After all, they have a winning record, at 6-5 on the season.  BUT they've been outscored by 27 points this season, which is not the mark of a good team.  And NFL teams with negative scoring margins are 154-235-6 ATS as favorites of 7+ points vs. opponents that didn't win their previous game.  That doesn't bode well for the Raiders this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that New York's 26-10 ATS at home, if they lost at home the previous game, including 11-3 ATS when getting more than 3 points.  Finally, since 1980, winless teams off a SU/ATS loss are 65-35 ATS (at Game 6 forward) if they were an underdog against a non-division foe.  Take the points with the Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Baltimore was favored in the season's first meeting this year, but was upset by the Steelers, 28-24.  We'll grab the points in this rematch as, in match-ups between two teams with .500 (or better) records, underdogs of more than 4 points have cashed 71.1% when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home earlier in the season.  And the Ravens are also 21-11 ATS when installed as an underdog of +3 (or more) points, and playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take the Ravens.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the Seattle Seahawks.  Last season, the Seahawks defeated Philly twice -- both by identical 17-9 scores -- in the regular season, and then, again, in the Wild Card round of the Playoffs.  But with double revenge, we'll step in and take the points with the home underdog tonight.  Indeed, the Eagles fall into a 28-12 ATS Playoff revenge system of mine which plays on certain revengers, at home, vs. .750 (or worse) foes.  And the Eagles also fall into a more general revenge system of mine which is 149-88 ATS since 1980 which plays on certain teams in non-division games with revenge against winning opponents.  Last week, the Seahawks had a huge divisional battle with Arizona, and emerged victorious by a 28-21 score.  But off that huge win, which moved the Seahawks to the lead in their division, I look for a letdown at Philadelphia tonight, as the Seahawks fall into a negative 6-25 ATS angle which fades certain teams off big division victories.  Take the Eagles + the generous spot.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Both of these teams have hopes of reaching the Super Bowl, though the Chiefs' are playing closer to that reality than than the Buccaneers.  Last week, Tampa lost for the 2nd time in its last three games to fall to 7-4 on the season.  The good news is that its four remaining games following this contest are all against sub-.500 ball clubs, so if the Bucs can win today, they'll stand an excellent chance to finish on a 5-game win streak, and tally 12 wins for the season.  First things first, of course, and they'll need to upset a Chiefs squad which has won its last five games.  But off its loss on Monday Night Football to the Rams, I love Tampa to rebound this afternoon.  For technical support, consider that, at Game 12 forward, winning teams have cashed 35 of 45 non-division games off a straight-up loss, if they were an underdog (or PK) at home, including 14-1 ATS if its opponent was playing back-to-back road games.  And the Buccaneers are also 10-4 ATS as a single-digit home dog, if they had a winning record, and their opponent was off a SU win.  Take the points with Tom Brady & Co.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Miami Dolphins.  New York has yet to win a game this season.  But after dropping their first 10 games, we'll grab the points with the Flyboys as a divisional home underdog.  Last week, the Jets fought hard against the Chargers in 6-point defeat, but covered the 10-point spread.  And that was New York's 2nd straight ATS win.  Of course, it hasn't hurt New York that it finally has a full complement of wide receivers, with Perriman, Mims and Crowder all on the field of late.  And QB Sam Darnold will also be back for this game.  I look for New York to make it three-in-a-row this afternoon, as NFL teams that have lost 7+ games in a row have gone 27-10-2 ATS off a point spread win when they were matched up against a division opponent, and not favored by 3+ points (and 8-0 ATS off 10+ wins, as an underdog of +6 or more).  Likewise, winless teams with an 0-4 (or worse) record have cashed 70% over the last 35 seasons vs. winning division rivals, including a perfect 11-0 ATS when priced from +6.5 to +10.5 vs. foes off an ATS loss.  Additionally, New York falls into 240-146, 298-224 and 250-153 ATS systems of mine that play on certain losing teams against winning foes.  Take New York + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Tennessee Titans/Indianapolis Colts game.  These two teams met just two weeks ago, and the over/under line was a couple of points less, at 49, than it is for this game here.  Indianapolis won that game, 34-17, so it went over the total by 2 points.  Now, for this game, the oddsmakers have adjusted the over/under line.  I believe it's an over-adjustment, and will look for a lower-scoring game, especially since this game will be played at Indianapolis.  Indeed, the Colts have gone 'under' in 25 of 34 home division contests, including 7-0 'under' when the line was greater than 48 points.  And this game also falls into 19-0 and 57-33 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Cleveland.  The Jaguars won on Opening Day, but haven't won since, as they're currently riding a 9-game losing streak.  In an attempt to get back into the win column, coach Doug Marrone has tabbed veteran Mike Glennon to start at quarterback this afternoon.  The Jags have been installed as a 7-point home underdog against a Browns team that enters off two straight wins.  But those two wins both came at home; on the road, the Browns have only won 17 of 95 games (40-53 ATS), and they've cashed just 7 of 25 when not getting more than 3 points, including 0-6 ATS their last six.  Over the last 40 years, at Game 10 forward, underdogs of +7 (or more) points have gone 143-99 ATS if they were off back to back losses, and their opponent was off back to back wins.  Take the Jaguars + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins + the points over Dallas.  Last week, we played on the Cowboys as our NFL Game of the Month, and were rewarded with an upset win over the Minnesota Vikings.  But we'll switch gears, and go against Dallas today.  The Cowboys and Redskins, er, Football Team, have had a heated rivalry for decades.  And it's been profitable to take the underdog in this series, as the dog has gone 49-24-1 ATS.  Even better:  if the favorite (here, Dallas) was coming off a straight-up win, then the underdog has gone 31-10-1 ATS, 75.6%.  Additionally, teams with horrible defenses (like Dallas (31.8 ppg)) that give up more than 30.25 ppg have covered just 24 of 75 home games off a straight-up win.  Take the Redskins + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over Los Angeles.  Last week, the Rams had a HUGE divisional win against the Seahawks.  Seattle was atop the division at the time, with a 6-2 record.  But the Rams defeated Seattle, 23-16, as a 3.5-point home favorite.  Unfortunately for L.A., teams often suffer letdowns following a victory in division games between two strong teams, and especially when they go on the road to play a non-division foe.  Indeed, over the past 41 years, in the 2nd half of the season, .666 (or better) road underdogs of less than 5 points have covered just 18% in non-division games following a victory over a .666 (or better) division rival!  Even better, in his career, Tom Brady's teams have gone 10-1-1, 91% ATS as a single-digit favorite on Monday nights.  Lay the points with the Buccaneers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Las Vegas.  The Raiders upset the defending Super Bowl champs, 40-32, earlier this season at Arrowhead Stadium.  But I love KC to avenge that defeat, as defending Super Bowl champs, with a winning record, have cashed 82% over the last 41 years in the regular season when playing with revenge from a home loss earlier in the year.  And NFL favorites of more than 3 points have gone 11-0 ATS in the regular season since 2010 when playing with revenge from an earlier loss in the season as a 7-point favorite.  Take the Chiefs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders to go under the total.  The Chiefs were upset at home by Las Vegas, 40-32, as a 10-point favorite back on October 11.  Needless to say, Kansas City will be strongly motivated tonight to avenge that defeat.  And, generally speaking, NFL teams that were upset earlier in the season, and gave up 28+ points in that loss, do exact revenge, as they've covered the spread 55% of the time since 1984, including 10-0 ATS their last 10.  And a primary reason that our revengers do better against the spread in the 2nd meeting is that their defense plays much better.  Indeed, our games in this situation have gone 'under' 142-99-6.  Before giving up 40 to the Raiders in the last meeting, the Chiefs had allowed just 9, 10 and 3 points to the Raiders in the three meetings previous to that (all 3 went 'under').   Finally, six of KC's last seven road games have gone 'under,' as have 23 of the Raiders' last 30 division contests.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Jets are 0-9 on the season, which will keep many bettors away from them.  But not us.  Indeed, one of the things I love to do is play on winless NFL teams, as road underdogs.  And if I can avoid going against a strong opponent, with a win percentage of .666 (or better), then that's much preferred.  Fortunately for us, the Jets aren't playing a great team on Sunday, as the Chargers have won just two games, themselves, this season.  And, dating back to 1985, winless teams, at Game 4 forward, are 92-48 ATS as road underdogs vs. sub-.666 opponents.  Take New York + the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Miami.  Broncos QB Drew Lock has been upgraded to 'probable,' and that's all we need to pull the trigger on the home underdog this afternoon.  Last week, Denver was blown out by the Raiders in Las Vegas, 37-12, while the Dolphins won (and covered) their 5th straight with a 29-21 victory against the Chargers.  We'll take the points with Denver, as home underdogs that gave up more than 31 points in their previous game (and failed to cover by 15+ points in that defeat) have rebounded to go 161-111 ATS vs. .363 (or better) opponents.  Even better:  the Broncos have always been a great team at home when they weren't laying a lot of points.  Indeed, dating back to 1981, Denver is a spectacular 52-24-4 ATS at home when not laying more than 2 points!  I won't fade those numbers.  Take the home underdog + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over New Orleans.  This is a great spot for Atlanta, as it won't have to face Drew Brees this afternoon, after he sustained a rib fracture in his last game.  Thus, Jameis Winston will be under center for New Orleans, and it's a big drop-off from Brees to Winston.  Atlanta has played extremely well for its new head coach, Raheem Morris, including wins in both of their road games, at Minnesota (40-23) and at Carolina (25-17).  And the Falcons have now won 6 straight division road games (5-1 ATS), including a 26-9 victory here in New Orleans last season (as a 14-point underdog).  And Atlanta's 24-7 ATS as a road underdog vs. the Saints.  Take Atlanta + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over New England.  Last week, we played on both Houston and New England, and cashed each of them.  But, unlike New England, which won outright as a 7-point underdog vs. Baltimore, our win on Houston was most fortunate.  The Texans were a 4-point underdog, and down by 3 points with about a minute left in the game when Cleveland RB Nick Chubb scampered down the sideline for an apparent 60-yard TD run.  But instead of crossing the goal line for a 9-point Browns lead, Chubb chose to step out of bounds at the 1-yard line so the Texans could not get the ball back with 56 seconds left.  Of course it was technically a smart decision, even if Houston would have had much less than a 1% chance to score 10 points in 56 seconds.  But it was still unbelievably lucky, as not many in Chubb's shoes would have eschewed a 60-yard TD score.  Here, I don't think Houston will need such good fortune, as I believe they'll pull the upset over the Patriots as a home underdog.  One of the things I love to do when betting on the NFL is to go against road favorites in non-division games after pulling off upset wins as an underdog of +5.5 (or more) points.  These road favorites generally suffer letdowns, as they've covered just 23% over the last 41 seasons.  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals to go UNDER the total.  These two teams less than four weeks ago, and the Cardinals came away with a 37-34 victory, in overtime.  And the Cardinals have now scored 30+ points in five straight games (33.2 avg.), and have gone 'over' the total in three straight.  That has contributed to this over/under being a couple points higher than it was just a few games ago!  But consider that Arizona's last three games -- that each went 'over' -- were all at home (where it averages 30.6 ppg (compared to a lower amount on the road)).  And also consider that, of Arizona's four road games this season, it has yet to face a team with a winning record!  Arizona's four road games have come against teams with a combined record of 9-29.  So, this will be a much more difficult test for the 6-3 Cardinals' offense, notwithstanding the fact that Seattle's defense is allowing 28.5 ppg at home this season.  The Seahawks should be in an angry mood on Thursday, as they're coming off back to back losses, and will be playing with revenge from that overtime game in Arizona which they led by 10 with less than seven minutes to go.  For technical support, consider that the Seahawks have gone under the total 88% of the time since 1980 when playing with revenge from an upset loss in which they gave up 28+ points (holding their opponents to an average of 13.3 ppg in those games).  And all four of Arizona's road games this season have also gone UNDER the total.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Chicago.  The Vikings started this season 1-5, but have reeled off back to back wins to move their record to 3-5 on the season.  Last year, of course, Minnesota was 10-6, and qualified for the playoffs as the NFC #6 seed.  They upset New Orleans in the Wild Card round, before losing, 27-10, to San Francisco in the divisional round.  So, it was a bit of a surprise that the Vikes got 2020 off to such a poor start.  But they're trying to right their ship, and tonight's game will be critical if they're to make a push for this year's playoffs.  Last season, even though Minnesota won 10 regular season games, the Bears won both meetings.  The good news for the Vikings is that NFL single digit favorites, that owned a winning record the previous season, have gone 70-40 ATS when playing with revenge from two losses the previous season.  Even better:  NFL favorites off back to back wins, with a win percentage of .375 (or worse) have cashed 64.7% since 1983.  And winning teams (like the Bears), off 3+ losses, have cashed just 28% since 1994 if they were an underdog (or PK).  Take Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over Baltimore.  These two teams met last year in Baltimore, and the Ravens won 37-20, as a 3-point home underdog.  Now, however, it's the Ravens who are installed as the road favorite.  Last week, Baltimore upset the Colts in Indianapolis, 24-10, to move to 6-2 on the season.  Meanwhile, the Patriots struggled to defeat the winless Jets, 30-27, as a 9-point favorite, so they failed to cover the spread for the fifth time in eight tries.  Can the Ravens win (and cover) back-to-back road games?  It's not likely, as .666 (or better) teams have covered just 23 of 71 on the road off a road upset win, if they weren't getting more than 3 points, and their opponent was off a point spread loss.  Even worse, the Ravens have lost nine of 10 road games, straight-up, after pulling an upset on the road in their previous game.  And New England is 16-1 ATS in the regular season when playing with revenge from an upset loss, if they failed to cover the spread in their previous meeting by more than 10 points.  Finally, it's been dangerous over the years to give New England points -- even if they're not a great team.  The Patriots are 6-0 ATS their last six as home dogs of +7 (or more) points (and 11-2 ATS their last 13); and also 24-8 ATS their last 32 as a dog of 7+, regardless of the venue.  And when the Patriots have owned a win percentage of .400 (or worse), they're 26-6-1 ATS when getting more than 3 points, if they were not off an ATS win in their previous game.  Take New England + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Los Angeles Rams/Seattle Seahawks game.  From an Over/Under perspective, this will be an interesting game, to the extent it features two teams going in opposite directions.  The Seahawks own the league's worst pass defense, and have gone 'over' the total in their last three games, and six of their eight on the season.  In contrast, the Rams have gone 'under' the total in five straight, and also six of their eight games.  Generally speaking, when two teams with contrasting styles like this have met over the past 41 seasons, the 'unders' have cashed more often than not.  And that's the way we will play this game, as the 'under' falls into two Totals systems of mine that are 101-40 and 21-4 since 1980, as well as a 3rd Totals system which is 55-29 since 1983.  Even better:  the Seahawks have gone 'under' in 9 straight (and 17 of 22) after scoring more than 100 points over their three previous games, including 7-0 'under' when the line was greater than 45 points.  And the Rams have gone 'under' in 7 straight (and 12 of 14) in competitively-priced games with point spreads less than 4 points, if the O/U line was 50+.  Take the Rams/Seahawks UNDER the total.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Las Vegas Raiders/Denver Broncos game.  The Broncos come into this AFC West division battle off a 34-27 loss at Atlanta last Sunday.  And that was Denver's 3rd straight game that it surrendered 30+ points.  Not surprisingly, all three games sailed over the total.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game here, especially since Las Vegas checks in off a high-scoring, 31-26 win at the Chargers last Sunday.  But consider that teams that gave up 30+ points in each of their three previous games have gone 'under' 57% of the time since 1980, including 33-18 UNDER if their opponent scored 30+ in its last game.  Even better:  AFC West division games have gone UNDER 26-14 since 2017, while Denver's gone UNDER in nine straight road games after giving up more than 92 points in their three previous games.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always..Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Buffalo.  Last week, we had a big play on the Bills, and were rewarded with a blowout win over the then-NFC Conference-leading Seahawks.  On Sunday, the 7-2 Bills will attempt to win their third straight game vs. an NFC West foe this season, but they will face a Cardinals team in an ornery mood following its home loss to the Dolphins last week.  We'll lay the points with Arizona, as NFL teams off an upset defeat, in which they failed to cover by more than 8 points, have cashed 51 of 79 vs. .687 (or better) foes off an upset win.  That bodes well for Arizona on Sunday.  As does the fact that the Cardinals are a stellar 34-9 ATS at home off a straight-up home loss, when they're not laying 6+ points.  Take Arizona minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over Miami.  The Dolphins are 5-3 after back to back upset wins over the LA Rams and Arizona Cardinals.  But each of those wins were phonier than a 3-dollar bill, as Miami was outgained 471-145 by the Rams, and 442-312 by the Cardinals.  So, don't be surprised if the 2-6 Chargers knock off Miami on Sunday.  Indeed, the Chargers may be 2-6, but they've actually outyarded six of their eight opponents -- including the Broncos and Raiders (both of which they lost to) in their last two games.  This will be just the 2nd time the Dolphins have been favored this season (the first was against the 0-9 Jets), and Miami's a horrid 37-66-3 ATS at home when they weren't getting more than 3 points.  Meanwhile, the Chargers are 37-13-1 ATS on the road in the 2nd half of the season when not favored by 4+ points.  And Los Angeles also falls into 45-87 and 26-66 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams with losing records off SU/ATS losses.  Take the Chargers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over the Cleveland Browns.  The Browns are favored by more than a field goal vs. Houston, even though Cleveland has failed to cover its last three games, and has covered just 13 of its last 42 when favored by six points or less (and just three of 22 if the Browns owned a W/L percentage of .375 or better).  It's true that the Texans are 2-6 this season, and failed to cover last Sunday at Jacksonville.  But losing teams, playing their second straight road game, have gone 282-211 ATS off a point spread loss the previous week.  Take the Texans + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Green Bay.  The Packers won a huge revenge game their last time out when they defeated San Francisco, 34-17.  Last season, of course, the Packers lost twice to the 49ers, including a defeat in the NFC Championship game.  Off that emotional win, I expect a bit of a letdown on Sunday, as Green Bay will be facing a Jaguars team which has lost seven straight games.  Indeed, winning teams have covered just 47 of 120 as a home favorite, after winning a revenge game on the road, if they were now matched up against a losing team off a straight-up loss (and just five of 19 when favored by more than 13 points).  Additionally, road underdogs of more than 13 points are 178-139 ATS.  Take the Jaguars + the points.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over New England.  The Patriots are on their way to their first losing season since 2000 when they went 5-11.  They're scoring just 19.42 ppg, while they're giving up 23.85, for a -4.43 average margin of victory.  Given these numbers, it's difficult to make a case for New England as a large road favorite -- even against a team as hapless as the New York Jets.  Consider that, at Game 6 forward, losing teams, favored by 8+ points, are a wallet-busting 17-37 ATS if their defense surrenders 23.67 ppg!  Even worse:  favorites of more than 3 points, with a W/L percentage less than .310, have covered just 30.2% since 1980.  And teams with a negative scoring margin that are favored by 7+ points, have gone 154-231-6 ATS vs. foes not off a straight-up win.  Indeed, we saw this particular angle win yesterday when the Houston Texans (with a negative 7.28 margin of victory) failed to cover their 7-point spread vs. Jacksonville.  The bottom line is that when it comes to bad teams, it's generally better to take points than to lay them.  Take the Jets + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Tampa Bay.  As faithful followers know, we've been terrific over the year on our futures plays.  Already in 2020, we've cashed the Tampa Bay Lightning at 7-1 odds, and the Los Angeles Dodgers at 4-1 odds.  Our NFL preseason pick was the New Orleans Saints (at 10-1 odds).  New Orleans did get its season off to a fine start with a 34-23 win over these Buccaneers.  But, if truth be told, they've not impressed since, as they've not won a game by 7+ points since then.  Yes, New Orleans has won four straight games coming into this Sunday Night contest, but those wins were by 6 (Lions), 3 (Chargers), 3 (Panthers) and 3 (Bears) points.  They'll now face a revenge-minded division rival, in the Buccaneers.  And that will lead many bettors over to the Tampa Bay side, especially since the Bucs are on a 3-game win streak, including a noteworthy 38-10 victory over the Green Bay Packers -- a team which beat the Saints by seven, 37-30.  But we will step in and take the points with the underdog Saints, as I feel they're due for a breakout game.  Also, Sean Payton has coached the Saints to a 56-24-3 ATS record vs. .500 (or better) foes off a straight-up win, including 11-0-1 ATS their last 12 when getting more than 2 points.  I won't fade those numbers.  Take the Saints + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs and New Orleans Saints UNDER the total.  The Saints have played ALL 7 games over the total this season!  So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the over in this game tonight.  But consider that, at Game 7 forward, in games with an over/under line of 47+ points, NFL teams that had gone over the total in at least 84% of their season's games, have gone UNDER the total 64.2% of the time.  Indeed, we saw this last week with the Las Vegas Raiders against Cleveland.  Going into that game, Las Vegas had gone OVER the total 5-0-1.  But it played its first under of the season last week when that game ended with just 22 points -- 25.5 points below the posted total.  I look for the Saints to also play their first under of the season tonight.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the over in the Pittsburgh/Dallas game.  The Cowboys have the league's worst defense, as it's giving up more than 33 points per game.  It's true that Dallas only gave up 23 and 25 their last two games (vs. Washington and Philadelphia), but the Steelers should do better, as their offense produces north of 30 points per game.  I also expect Dallas to do better this week than it did last week behind rookie Ben DiNucci.  For this game, Dallas coach Mike McCarthy will start either Garrett Gilbert (6th round pick, 2014) or Cooper Rush (2017), both of whom have more NFL experience than DiNucci.  So, even though the Cowboys have been moribund on offense, with just 22 points scored over their previous three games, that doesn't necessarily portend a low-scoring game today.  One thing which will help is that Dallas is back home this afternoon.  This season, the Cowboys have averaged 31.2 ppg at home, but just 15 ppg on the road.  Not surprisingly, three of the Cowboys' four home games have gone over the total (compared to one of their four road games).  And, going back further, Dallas has played 14 of its last 20 home games over the total (compared to just nine of its last 25 road games).  Additionally, home teams that scored 25 or less combined points in their three previous games, all of which went under the total, have proceeded to go over in their next game 66% of the time since 1989.  And Dallas has gone 78-50 'over' at home when the line was greater than 38 and less than 45 points, including 8-1 OVER their last nine if they were off unders in each of their three previous games.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over Pittsburgh.  It's absolutely true that these two teams are going in an opposite direction.  Dallas is 2-6 straight-up, and a horrid 0-8 ATS.  Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has covered five straight games, and is the NFL's lone undefeated team, at 8-0.  The Steelers have been installed as a double-digit road favorite.  And, as I've often written, one of the last things an NFL bettor should do is take a double-digit road favorite.  Certainly, if an NFL team is installed as a double-digit home underdog, then it's bad.  Really bad.  That being said, these horrible teams have been one of the most reliable bets over the last 41 years.  They're 103-78-2 ATS their last 183, including a perfect 3-0 ATS already this season.  The most recent double-digit home dog was the New York Giants, when it caught 13 points from Tampa Bay on a Monday Night game.  The Giants took Tampa down to the wire, and lost by just two, 25-23.  Previous to that was Philadelphia, which almost upset Baltimore as a 10.5-point home dog.  And the other one was Washington, which covered as a 14.5-point home dog vs. the Ravens.  The Steelers are 29-52 ATS as a non-division road favorite, including 0-8 ATS when laying more than 9.  Take Dallas + the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the under in the LA Chargers/Las Vegas Raiders game.  The Raiders are 14-1 UNDER their last 15 division road games (and 62-35 UNDER their last 97).  Meanwhile, the Chargers are 79-32 UNDER their last 111 division home games, including 6-0 under their last six.  Take the UNDER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Seattle.  This is a great match-up between the 6-2 Bills and 6-1 Seahawks.  The Achilles' heel for Seattle this season is its defense.  It's giving up 28.4 ppg (against foes that score 25.1), and 6.3 yards per play.  So, it's hard for me to take Seattle in this situation, and lay points on the road to a very good team.  Indeed, really good NFL teams, with W/L percentages greater than .750, are a poor 11-30 ATS on the road if they don't own the better defense, and are laying 3 or more points.  That doesn't bode well for Seattle.  Nor does the fact that Buffalo is an awesome 51-22 ATS at home off a point spread defeat vs. foes off a straight-up win.  With Buffalo, indeed, off an ATS loss last week vs. New England, we'll take the points with the Bills on Sunday afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Minnesota.  The Lions announced that QB Matthew Stafford will be eligible to play today, after successfully completing the COVID protocols after being exposed to the virus.  That's enough for me to pull the trigger on the underdog Lions, as I want to go against Minnesota off its upset road win at Green Bay last Sunday.  Indeed, underdogs off a double-digit loss have covered 75% over the last 41 years vs. division rivals, if its foe owned a losing record, and was off an upset division win in its previous game.  Even better:  Detroit is a wallet-fattening 39-14-4 ATS on the road off a loss by more than 10 points, including a perfect 10-0 if it was getting more than 3 points vs. .350 (or worse) opponents.  Take the Lions + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Chicago.  After storming out of the gates with a 5-0 record, the Titans have dropped their last two games.  But one was against the undefeated Steelers, so it's hard to find too much fault.  Today, they'll welcome the 5-3 Bears to Nashville.  We'll lay the points, as NFL teams with a .700 (or better) W/L percentage, off back to back losses, have covered 61.6% over the last 41 years.  Take Tennessee.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Denver.  The Falcons were 0-5 when they fired Dan Quinn, and replaced him with Raheem Morris.  Since then, Atlanta has gone 2-1, but easily could be 3-0 if it had only not allowed the Lions to score a touchdown as time expired, in a 23-22 defeat.  In their last game, the Falcons went into Carolina, and upset the Panthers, 25-17.  We played on Atlanta in that game, and will take them again today, as they'll welcome a Broncos team which pulled off a division upset last Sunday.  Since 1980, road underdogs have covered just 63 of 155 non-division games off an upset division win at home.  Take Atlanta.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Sunday night game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.  It's true that the Cowboys' offense has sputtered without QB Dak Prescott.  Dallas' last two games have gone 'under' the total, as they've produced 48 and 28 points.  And Dallas' offensive problems is the reason for this relatively-low over/under number.  But, by my math, the oddsmakers' adjustment of the over/under number has been an overreaction.  The Cowboys' defense is still giving up TONS of points, as it's given up 25 or more points in each of its last six games (37.16 avg).  For the season, Dallas has allowed 34.7 ppg (against foes that score 25.6 ppg).  Meanwhile, Philly's defense has also been horrible, as it's surrendered 28 ppg (against foes that average 24.4 ppg).  Notably, each of Philadelphia's seven games this season have totaled 43+ points (51.2 avg), and five of the Eagles' seven games have soared 'over' the total.  Dallas has gone 'over' the total in 11 of 15 after playing an 'under,' while the Eagles have gone 'over' in 24 of 38 off an 'under.'  Take the Cowboys + Eagles to go OVER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over San Francisco.  The Niners come into Sunday's game off back to back upset wins over the Rams (24-16) and Patriots (33-6).  Can they pull off their 3rd straight upset?  It will be most difficult, as they catch division rival Seattle off an overtime upset defeat to Arizona, 37-34.  That was Seattle's first loss of the season (after five wins), and I love it to bounce back this afternoon.  Since 1980, winning home favorites are an awesome 57-33 ATS vs. foes off back to back upset wins.  Even better:  the Seahawks play this game with revenge from a loss here at home to the Niners in the season's final regular season game.  That handed last year's division title to San Francisco.  But revenge-minded NFL favorites, off an upset loss, are 107-67 ATS.  Take Seattle minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over New Orleans.  We played against the Bears last Monday, and were rewarded with a 24-10 SU/ATS win by the Los Angeles Rams.  But we'll switch gears this afternoon, and play on Chicago as a home underdog.  These two teams actually met here, at Soldier Field, last season, and the Bears were defeated 36-25.  But revenge-minded home underdogs, with a winning record, have cashed 65.6% over the past 41 seasons vs. non-division foes.  Indeed, we saw this situation just a couple of weeks ago when the Titans avenged their home loss to the Buffalo Bills last season with a 42-16 blowout as a 3-point home underdog this season.  The Chicago Bears are 12-4-1 ATS their last 17 as a home underdog, and 20-11 ATS as a home dog with revenge.  Take Chicago + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Steelers are the last remaining undefeated NFL team (at 6-0), and will attempt to tie the 1978 team (which went 7-0 to start its season) with the best start in franchise history.  The oddsmakers aren't giving the Steelers the respect of an undefeated team, as they've installed them as a sizeable underdog at their rival, Baltimore, this afternoon.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with Pittsburgh.  But consider that underdogs of more than 3 points have covered just 23 of 65 games, if they were on a 4-game (or better) win streak, including 2-15 ATS vs. division rivals.  That doesn't bode well for the Black-and-Gold on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that the Ravens are a powerful 16-4 ATS vs. .500 (or better) teams if the Ravens are priced between -3.5 and -6 points at home.  Last week, Baltimore had its bye week, following its 30-28 victory over Philadelphia.  The Steelers, meanwhile, upset Tennessee on the road for its 4th straight cover.  Unfortunately, in the regular season, unrested road underdogs off 3 SU/ATS wins are a soft 58-96 ATS vs. winning foes, including 14-28 ATS vs. division rivals.  And rested home teams with an .800 (or better) win percentage, are an awesome 12-0 ATS vs. unrested foes in the regular season, when not favored by 6+ points.  Take Baltimore.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Minnesota/Green Bay game.  This rivalry has typically produced low-scoring games, with nine of the last 12 meetings sailing 'UNDER' the total.  I look for another relatively-low scoring game this afternoon, with Minnesota looking to bounce back off its 40-23 upset loss to Atlanta, as a 3.5-point favorite.  And NFL teams that get upset, and give up 35+ points in that upset loss, tend to bounce back and cover the spread, while also going 'under' the total -- and especially when the line is greater than 39 points (204-152 under (57.3%)).  And Mike Zimmer's Vikings have gone 'under' 28-13 after going 'over' in their previous game.  Take the 'under.'

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Kansas City.  Last week, we played on the Jets as a double-digit home underdog vs. Buffalo, and got the cash in an 18-10 defeat.  That loss moved the Jets' straight-up record to 0-7.  Today, they'll take on the 6-1 (and defending Super Bowl champion) Kansas City Chiefs.  Understandably, the Chiefs are massive favorites in this game.  But don't be surprised if the Jets hang tough this afternoon.  Indeed, defending Super Bowl champs have not done well over the years as large home favorites.  Since 1980, they've covered just 12 of 33 when laying more than two touchdowns.  Moreover, winless teams -- like New York -- are an impressive 36-13 ATS at Game 8 forward when getting more than 8 points.  And underdogs of 19+ points -- though they've gone 0-19 straight-up -- have gone 13-6 ATS.  Take New York + the big number.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and New York Jets to go OVER the total.  The Chiefs are favored by 20 points, which is the largest point spread yet this season.  And, over the past 20 years, NFL games with large point spreads tend to go over the total.  Indeed, home teams favored by more than 15 points have gone OVER 62.7% of the time.  I look for another high-scoring game here, as the Chiefs have also gone 'over' the total 57% of the time in the Patrick Mahomes era, including 6-0-1 OVER after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Of course, it's true that the Jets come into this game off 3 straight unders.  But consider that, since 1980, NFL teams off 3 straight unders have proceeded to go OVER the total 60.4% of the time when the line was greater than 48 points!  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over the Bengals.  After starting the season 5-0, the Titans finally lost last Sunday -- 27-24 -- at home to the similarly undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers.  Off that loss, I look for the Titans to rebound this afternoon at Cincinnati.  Indeed, NFL teams that start the season with 5 (or more) wins have gone 8-0-1 ATS when priced from -6.5 to -13 points, if they suffered their first loss of the season at home in their previous game.  Additionally, the Titans should also be bolstered by facing a Bengals team which is 1-5-1 this year, and giving up 27.71 ppg.  Since 1980, road teams have gone 251-174 ATS vs. opponents off an ATS win that give up 26.22 ppg.  Take the Titans minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Thursday Night Football game between Carolina and Atlanta.  This match-up pits two losing teams from the NFC South division.  Atlanta checks in with a 1-6 record, while Carolina is two games better, at 3-4.  The Falcons' problem has been on the defensive side of the football, as they've given up at least 23 points in each of their seven games this season.  Overall, their defense gives up 29.57 ppg, and two of their three road games have sailed 'over' the total, including their last road game -- a 40-23 win at Minnesota, in Raheem Morris' first game as Atlanta head coach.  We'll look for another high-scoring game tonight, as losing teams, that give up at least 29.5 ppg, have gone 'over' the total in 33 of 44 road games vs. other losing teams, if the line was at least 47 points (including 20-2 'OVER' if the O/U line was greater than 49 points).  Additionally, the 'Over' falls into 69-41 and 94-65 Totals systems of mine.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over Carolina.  This is the second meeting between these two NFC South division rivals.  In the first meeting, Carolina upset Atlanta, 23-16, as a 2.5-point underdog.  We'll take the Falcons in the rematch, as revenge-minded teams that were upset at home in the previous meeting earlier in the season, have gone 76-42 ATS if they also lost their previous game, straight-up.  Even better:  Atlanta is 21-9 ATS as a road underdog vs. foes off back-to-back losses, including 7-0 ATS its last seven division games.  Take the Falcons + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over Chicago.  The Bears travel to the west coast off an upset win last Sunday at Carolina, and a 2nd upset win over Tampa Bay in their game before that.  Can the Bears pull an upset three weeks in a row?  It's not likely, as NFL teams playing their 2nd straight road game, are a poor 34.6% ATS off back to back upset wins, if they're playing a non-division foe, including 3-24 SU and 7-19-1 ATS when priced from +2.5 to +7 points.  That doesn't bode well for Chicago tonight.  Nor does the fact that the Bears are a horrid 0-12 ATS their last 12 (and 7-27 ATS their last 34) on the road vs. winning teams who were not off a SU/ATS win in their previous game.  With the Rams in off an upset loss last Sunday to the 49ers, we'll lay the points with Sean McVay's men tonight.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over San Francisco.  The Pats are 2-3 on the season.  Two of the three losses were somewhat expected.  New England was a 4-point underdog at Seattle, and an 11.5-point underdog at Kansas City.  But last week's upset loss, here in Foxborough, as a 7-point favorite vs. Denver was surprising.  After all, the Patriots had won 88 of their previous 100 home games as a favorite of 7+ points.  The good news for New England this afternoon is that it's cashed 90% over the past 17 years off an upset home loss where it was favored by 7+ points.  Even better:  the Pats come into this game off back to back ATS defeats.  But they're 24-6 ATS off two ATS losses when not favored by more than 12 points!  We played on the 49ers last week as a home underdog to the Los Angeles Rams, and were rewarded with an upset win by San Francisco, 24-16.  Unfortunately for the Niners, they're an awful 0-11 SU and 1-10 ATS off an upset home win when matched up against an opponent off a loss.  And if all this wasn't enough ammunition to play on Bill Belichick's men, New England also falls into 123-64, 120-55 and 44-22 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off upset defeats.  Take the Patriots minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars plus the points over Los Angeles.  The Jaguars come into this game off 5 straight losses (and 4 straight ATS losses), so the knee-jerk reaction might be to lay the points with the Chargers (notwithstanding the fact that L.A. has won just 1 game itself).  However, consider that NFL underdogs (or PK) have cashed 63.1% since 1980 in non-division games when they've lost their last five games, and were also on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, including a perfect 13-0-1 ATS over the last 3 years.  That bodes well for the underdog Jaguars on Sunday.  As does the fact that .300 (or worse) teams have covered just 11 of 38 (including 0 for their last 7) when laying more than 7 points, at Game 4 forward.  Take Jacksonville + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets to go OVER the total.  Buffalo's offense has taken a leap forward this season with 3rd year QB Josh Allen.  Buffalo has scored 27, 31, 35, 30, 16 and 17 points in its six games, and only one of the six has gone 'under' the total.  The only game which went 'under' was -- not coincidentally -- the only game which Buffalo wasn't favored to win.  But when the Bills are favored, they've actually gone 'over' 26 of their last 37 games.  In contrast, when the Bills are an underdog, they've gone 'under' 18-4.  In this game, the Bills are substantially favored, as they're laying double-digits to the Jets.  And Buffalo's 14-0 'over' when laying 4 or more points on the road!  These two teams met earlier this season, and that game went 'over' the total by 5 points.  And the 'over' also falls into a 164-111 Totals system of mine.  We'll look for another 'over' this afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Carolina/New Orleans game.  The Saints have played all 5 of their games OVER THE TOTAL this season.  But something will have to give today, as they'll be playing the Panthers, who have played UNDERS in each of their four previous games.  I actually look for a relatively-low scoring game here, as NFL teams have gone UNDER 60% of the time over the past 41 years when the line was greater than 49 points, if they played their previous four games over the total, and were playing an opponent which had played a majority of its games UNDER the total on the season.  Even better:  Sean Payton's Saints have gone UNDER 63% of the time over the past 13 seasons off 3+ overs.  And the UNDER also falls into one of my favorite Totals systems which is 98-59-2 since 1980.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys over the Washington Redskins.  Last week, the Cowboys played one of the worst games by any team in the league this season.  They were favored against Arizona on Monday Night Football, but were blown out, 38-10.  The result is that the opening number for this game (Dallas -3) is history, and the number is closer to PK'em.  I believe this was an over-reaction, and the value squarely lies on the Cowboys.  The Cowboys fall into 88-56, 153-69, 221-133 and 71-40 ATS systems of mine.  Let's take a look at our 88-56 ATS angle.  That plays on road teams in division games off exactly 1 upset loss, if they were defeated by double-digits in that upset.  Even better:  Washington is a horrible 32-54-1 ATS at home vs. division rivals, if Washington wasn't getting more than 3 points, including 14-32 ATS vs. foes off a loss.  Take Dallas.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Cleveland/Cincinnati game.  The Cleveland Browns have played three road games this season, and have scored 6, 7 and 49 in those three games.  Of course, that 49-point game was vs. the Cowboys, who are giving up 36.3 ppg, so that Browns effort must be taken with a grain of salt.  Still, even with that 49-point outburst, the Browns are only averaging 20.66 ppg on the road (compared to 33.66 at home).  Likewise, the Bengals have played much better defense at home this season, as they've given up just 20.5 ppg at home (compared to 29 ppg on the road).  We'll look for a low-scoring game here in Cincinnati on Sunday, as the 'under' falls into 60-25 and 125-74 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Dallas/Washington game.  The Cowboys' defense has given up 39, 38, 49, 34 and 38 points in their last five games.  But those five opponents all had better quarterbacks than does this Washington club.  Indeed, Washington has scored just 17, 10 and 19 points over its last three games.  And, outside of its first game vs. Philadelphia, where it benefited from three turnovers, it hasn't scored more than 20 points all season.  I fully expect Dallas' defense to play a terrific game on Sunday, especially since it will be "stepping down in class" by playing Washington.  And, for technical support, consider that teams whose games average 64+ points have gone under the total 57% when the O/U line 45 or less points.  Take the UNDER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans over Pittsburgh.  The Steelers will be the 2nd undefeated team that the Titans have welcomed to Nashville over the past 12 days.  Back on October 13, the Titans trounced the then-undefeated Bills, 42-16.  Last week, the Titans also scored 42 points, so we won't step in front of this freight train here, at home.  Indeed, over the last 18 years, teams off back to back 40-point outings have cashed 84% when not favored by 5+ points, if their opponent was off a SU win.  And Tennessee is 20-9 ATS off back to back 30-point games.  Take the Titans.  Finally, the Steelers are an awful 21-44 ATS when they owned a winning record, and were playing a non-division foe on the road, but not getting more than 2 points.  Take Tennessee.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Green Bay.  The Packers looked like gangbusters through their first four games.  But they laid an egg last week at Tampa Bay, and lost 38-10.  Now, they'll try to rebound at Houston, which owns just one win on the season.  Last week, the Texans lost a brutal game in overtime at Tennessee, 42-36.  We'll fade Green Bay as, road teams have covered just 33% over the last 41 seasons after being upset on the road by 27+ points.  Take Houston.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Buffalo.  It goes without saying that double-digit home underdogs are bad teams.  Actually, really, really bad teams.  But it's also true that double-digit underdogs have been one of the more reliable point spread plays in modern NFL history.  Dating back to 1980, they've gone 109-89-2 (55% ATS).  Last week, we saw the Eagles (+10.5) almost upset the Baltimore Ravens.  And earlier this month, the Redskins covered as a 14.5-point home underdog -- also against Baltimore.  This will be the 3rd double-digit home dog of 2020, and we'll take the points with the pitiful Jets, who are 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS on the season.  But winless ATS teams, at Game 7 forward, have covered 64% since 1980 when installed as an underdog.  Take New York + the points.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys over the Arizona Cardinals.  The Cowboys are 2-3 this season, but have yet to cover the point spread in any of their five games.  And, to make matters worse, they'll be without QB Dak Prescott for the rest of the season after he sustained a severe ankle injury in last week's 37-34 win over the NY Giants.  But if there's good news for Mike McCarthy's team, it's that they have a veteran backup QB in Andy Dalton.  And they play in the worst division in football, so they still should make the Playoffs -- even if they end up with a losing record.  Tonight, they'll welcome the 3-2 Arizona Cardinals to AT&T Stadium.  But Arizona's 3-2 record has largely come against the dregs of the league, as two of its three wins were against the 1-4 Washington Football Team and the 0-5 NY Jets.  We'll take Dallas as NFL teams on 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks have gone 98-49 ATS against non-division foes, provided our team wasn't favored by 3 or more points.  Even better:  this will be Arizona's 3rd straight road game, while Dallas hasn't had to travel in over 3 weeks, as this will be the Cowboys' 3rd straight home game.  Since 1980, NFL teams playing their 3rd straight on the road have covered just 9 of 30 games vs. foes playing their 3rd straight at home!  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals to go Under the total.  The Cowboys' defense has been a sieve thus far, as it's given up 36 points per game.  They've now played their last four games 'over' the total, which has led to an overwhelming majority of the tickets being written on the 'over,' and this number jumping a couple of points from the opener.  Certainly, as can be seen by the betting data, the knee-jerk reaction is to play a Cowboys game to go 'over' the total.  But consider that NFL teams that give up more than 28 ppg on defense, and have played their previous 4 games 'over' the total, have actually gone UNDER the total 72.5% of the time (29-11).  And teams playing on Monday Night Football have gone 9-0 UNDER if the line was at least 50 points, and none of their three previous games went under the total.  Take the Cowboys and Cardinals UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Kansas City.  Last Tuesday, we played against Josh Allen & Co., and were rewarded with a blowout win by underdog Tennessee, 42-16.  But off that blowout loss -- a game Buffalo failed to cover by 29 points -- we'll take the Bills to bounce back on Monday.  Indeed, NFL teams have gone 98-52-5 ATS in non-division games after failing to cover the point spread by more than 24 points, provided they weren't favored by more than 3 points.  That bodes well for Buffy this evening.  As does the fact that the Bills are 29-15 ATS at home off a straight-up loss, when the Bills owned a winning record.  Finally, defending Super Bowl champs are 0-8 ATS as road favorites of -4 (or more) points vs. winning opponents, if their opponent failed to cover the spread by 7+ points in its previous game.  Take the Bills + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  Last week, the Niners were embarrassed by the Miami Dolphins, 43-17, as an 8-point favorite.  It's not often that an NFL team -- much less, a defending Conference champion -- fails to cover the point spread by 34 points.  But that's exactly what San Francisco did last week.  We'll look for San Francisco to bounce back on Sunday night, as .350 (or better) home underdogs have covered 62% since 1980 off an upset loss by more than 10 points.  Take the Niners.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Green Bay Packers.  The Bucs lost their last game as a road favorite at Chicago, and will look to bounce back against the undefeated Packers.  We'll take Tom Brady & Co. as, Brady's teams have gone 12-0 ATS as an underdog (or PK) off a loss.  Also, over the last 41 years, winning teams have covered 64% as home underdogs off an upset loss as a road favorite the previous week.  Take Tampa Bay.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Miami.  On the surface, we have two teams going in opposite directions.  The Jets are 0-5 SU and ATS, and have lost each of their games by 9+ points.  Meanwhile, the Dolphins come into this game off an impressive 43-17 upset of San Francisco, and have covered three of their last four games.  However, Miami was an underdog in each of its five games this year, and now it's laying more than a touchdown.  That doesn't bode well for Miami, as it's covered just 36 of 105 at home when not getting more than 3 points!  And when laying more than 5 points, Miami's covered just 2 of its last 24 at home!  Even better:  winless teams, off back-to-back SU/ATS losses, have covered 60% over the last 41 years as road underdogs of more than 8 points.  Take New York + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over Baltimore.  The Eagles return home on Sunday after back-to-back road games vs. the 49ers and Steelers.  Philly will welcome the Ravens, who blew out Cincy last week, 27-3.  Baltimore's been installed as a huge road favorite, but the number is inflated, per my models.  One of the things I love to do is play on big home underdogs off back to back road games, and especially if they're playing an opponent off a home game, provided that opponent wasn't off a SU/ATS loss.  Since 1980, our big home dogs (of more than 9 points) have covered 86.2% of the time (25-4 ATS).  That bodes well for Philadelphia on Sunday.  As does the fact that the Ravens have covered just nine of their last 33 road games off a win by more than 18 points.  Take the Eagles + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans minus the points over the Tennessee Titans.  The Texans kicked off the Romeo Crennel era with an easy 16-point win, 30-14, over Jacksonville.  They'll try to make it two-division-wins-in-a-row on Sunday when they visit Nashville to take on the Titans.  Houston will have a scheduling advantage for this game, as Tennessee was forced to play this past Tuesday, so the Titans will be playing with two days less rest.  Even worse for Tennessee:  it's a nightmarish 8-38 ATS at home when favored by more than three points vs. an opponent off a SU win, including 0-6 ATS if the Titans were off an upset win.  And it's 5-21 ATS off an upset win, when it wasn't getting 4+ points in its current game.  Finally, Tennessee has covered just seven of its last 23 vs. Houston, including 1-7 ATS when the Texans were playing with revenge.  Grab the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers over Chicago.  The Bears upset Tom Brady and the Bucs, 20-19, as a 3.5-point home underdog 10 days ago, and are 4-1 on the season.  Meanwhile, the Panthers are a surprising 3-2 on the heels of a 3-game SU/ATS win streak.  And all three wins were of the upset variety.  This will be the first time this season that Carolina wasn't an underdog.  Oftentimes, I will avoid playing on such teams that are unaccustomed to laying points.  But I will make an exception here, given that it's a short number.  Additionally, .666 (or better) NFL teams (like Chicago) have cashed just 39% over the past 41 years as a road underdog (or PK) off an upset win as a 3.5-point (or greater) home underdog.  Finally, the Bears are a horrible 2-12 ATS off an upset win, including 0-7 ATS on the road.  In contrast, the Panthers are 18-4 ATS off an upset win, including a perfect 9-0 ATS their last nine.  Take Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over Indianapolis.  The Bengals have won just once, but have been extremely competitive this season, as they've lost just one of their five games by more than five points.  But that was last week's 27-3 defeat at Baltimore, which ranks among the four best teams in the NFL.  This week, the Bengals will take on the Colts who have sprinted out to a 3-2 record.  But two of Indianapolis' three wins were against 1-4 Minnesota (28-11) and 0-5 New York Jets (36-7).  So, Indianapolis' scoring margin of +7.6 should be taken with a grain (or, maybe, boulder) of salt.  I expect the Bengals to once again be competitive, as they fall into several of my very best systems that play on certain teams off blowout losses.  Those angles have records of 113-36, 133-57 and 148-68 ATS.  Even better:  NFL road teams that scored 3 or less points the previous week have gone 80-42-3 ATS vs. .650 (or worse) foes, if our road team wasn't getting 10+ points!  And the Bengals are 24-7 ATS on the road as an underdog vs. .650 (or worse) opponents.  Take the Bengals + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over Minnesota.  The Falcons are winless on the season, and will have a new coach (Raheem Morris) following the dismissal of Dan Quinn.  They hope to do what the previously-winless Houston Texans did last week following the firing of Bill O'Brien, and win their first game for their new head coach.  Atlanta will be in Minnesota to take on the equally-disappointing (1-4) Minnesota Vikings.  And, when it comes to betting on bad NFL teams, I would much rather take points than lay points with such clubs.  Indeed, NFL home favorites with a .200 (or worse) win percentage (at Game 4 forward), have covered just 110 of 245 games, including a soft 61-90 ATS vs. non-division foes.  Additionally, Atlanta falls into 158-76 and 110-61 ATS systems of mine that play on certain bad teams.  Take the Falcons + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns to go 'under' the total.  The posted total for this game is the biggest number in the history of the series.  Indeed, until this game, the highest over/under number for this rivalry was 47.5.  Last season, these two teams played extremely low-scoring games (21-7, 20-13) that each went 'under' the total.  But this year -- so far -- the two teams have been involved in high-scoring affairs.  Pittsburgh's last three games have gone 'over' the number (26-21, 28-21, 38-29), while Cleveland's last four have gone 'over' (35-30, 34-20, 49-38, 32-23).  However, since 1980, NFL games with over/under lines less than 56 have gone 'under' the total 60% of the time (86-58-6) if both teams played their two previous games 'over,' and each of those games generated more than 47 points.  Additionally, the Steelers have gone 'under' 8 straight times after playing a game with 50+ points scored, while Cleveland is 13-4 'under' after a game that produced 50+ points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Titans had 0 new infections today, so the NFL has given the green light for this rare Tuesday night game.  Tennessee comes into this game with a 3-0 record after not playing last week due to the outbreak of infections.  It will be missing several key players, including WRs Corey Davis and Adam Humphries, so I expect a heavy dose of RB Derrick Henry tonight.  Because of its hampered roster, the undefeated Titans have been installed as a home underdog vs. the similarly-unbeated Bills.  We'll grab the points with Tennessee, as rested home underdogs, with a .636 (or better) win percentage, have cashed 75 percent over the past 25 years.  Even better:  Tennessee is playing with revenge from a loss to the Bills last season.  And revenge-minded home underdogs have cashed 70% over the last 41 seasons vs. non-division foes, if our home dog had a winning record both in the previous and current seasons.  Take Tennessee + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Under in the New York Giants/Dallas Cowboys game.  The New York Giants have scored 9, 9, 13, and 16 points in their four games this season.  And three of the four have gone 'under' the total, with the lone game (NYG/SF) going 'over' the total by a single point.  But because of the propensity of the Cowboys to play high-scoring games (three of Dallas' four games have gone 'over'), the number for this game is the highest on a New York Giants game in almost two years, and the 2nd-highest in over 12 years.  We'll play on this game to go 'under,' as in the past 41 years, teams that have given up more than 31 points in each of their three previous games have gone 'under' the total 62.1% of the time.  And the 'under' also falls into 32-15, 69-43, 86-44, 61-28 and 84-41 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns over the Indianapolis Colts.  The Colts come into Cleveland off three straight wins and covers, on the heels of a staunch defense which has allowed just 29 points combined in those three games.  But those three victories included home games against the 0-4 Jets and 1-3 Vikings.  This will be a much more difficult test for the Colts, given that Cleveland has scored 35, 34 and 49 points in its last three outings.  We'll play against the Colts, as unrested NFL road teams off 3 straight covers are a dreadful 0-13-1 ATS vs. .750 (or better) foes off a SU/ATS win.  And NFL home teams have cashed 78% since 1980 after scoring 80+ points in their two previous games, provided that they are not laying more than four points.  And home teams have also cashed 64.8% since 2001 after scoring more than 48 points in their previous game.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Miami.  We played against the 49ers last Sunday, and cashed the Philadelphia Eagles as our Sunday Night Football Game of the Month.  The Niners were 8-point favorites in that game, but lost, 25-20.  If there was a silver lining for the 49ers, it's that they outgained the Eagles in yardage, 417 to 267.  But three turnovers by 2nd-string QB, Nick Mullens, doomed them.  San Francisco, though, will get its #1 QB, Jimmy Garoppolo, back for this game (he missed last week with an ankle injury).  The Niners are a fantastic 60-23 ATS off an upset loss, if they were favored by 3+ points in that defeat, including 29-5 ATS vs. foes off an ATS defeat.  San Francisco is 8-2-1 ATS its last 11 vs. the Dolphins, including 4-0 ATS when favored by 3+ points.  Take the 49ers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Arizona.  The Cardinals come into this game off back to back upset losses, after starting the season with wins over the 49ers and Redskins.  They'll look to get back on the winning track vs. the winless NY Jets.  Unfortunately, .500 (or better) teams off back-to-back upset losses, have cashed just 18 of 68 road games when not getting more than 2 points.  Yikes!  The Flyboys are 26-9 ATS at home off a home loss, including 11-1 ATS when priced from +3.5 to +10 points.  Take the New York Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons over the Carolina Panthers.  Atlanta's 0-4 on the season, with losses to Seattle, Dallas, Chicago and Green Bay (all good teams), while Carolina is 2-2 on the season, but has played the much easier schedule, with games vs. Las Vegas (L), Tampa Bay (L), LA Chargers (W) and Arizona (W).  We'll take the Falcons to break into the win column, as winless teams, with an 0-4 (or worse) record, have cashed 65% over the last 29 years when not getting 3+ points against foes off a straight-up win.  Additionally, teams (like Carolina) off back-to-back upset wins have covered just 56 of 140 games when matched up against opponents off back-to-back losses.  Take the Falcons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over San Francisco.  Both of these teams are ravaged by injuries, with the latest being 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo, who sustained an ankle injury.  The 49ers, though, have survived better than the Eagles, as the 49ers are 2-1, while Philly is 0-2-1 after tying the Bengals last Sunday.  Curiously, the Eagles have been favored by 5.5, 2 and 5.5 points in their first three, but have yet to break through with a win.  Still, we will take Philly on this Sunday night, as we note that winless NFL teams are 100-61-4 ATS if they were not an underdog in their previous game.  Even better:  the Eagles are 114-79 ATS their last 193 as a road underdog, while the 49ers have gone 0-13-1 ATS as a home favorite vs. a foe not off a win.  Take Philadelphia.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.