At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over Cincinnati.  The Chargers were upset by division rival, Denver, 28-13, last Sunday, while Cincinnati blew out its division rival, Pittsburgh, here at home, 41-10.  But off those results, we'll grab the points with the Chargers, as road teams have covered 72% of non-division games since 1982, if they were off an upset loss, and not getting more than 4 points from a foe off a home division blowout win by 15+ points.  Additionally, Los Angeles is an awesome 47-21-1 ATS as a road underdog vs. .666 (or worse) teams off a win.  Grab the points with the Chargers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over the Green Bay Packers.  We played against Green Bay last week, and took Minnesota as a home dog, and were rewarded with an upset win.  And we'll once again go against Aaron Rodgers & Co. this afternoon -- primarily because the Rams are off back to back losses.  Los Angeles comes into this game off an upset defeat last week at San Francisco, and they lost to the Titans two games back.  And the Rams will also be playing this game with revenge from a loss to Green Bay in last year's playoffs.  This season, teams playing with revenge from a playoff defeat  have gone 6-1 ATS.  And over the last 42 years, teams playing with Playoff revenge have cashed 59% if they were matched up against a non-division foe, and were off a road loss in their previous game.  Even better:  if our revenger also lost two games back, then our 59% stat zooms to 13-1 ATS since 1980.  The Rams have been consistently very strong off losses under head coach Sean McVay.  Since his hiring in 2017, the Rams are 16-7 SU and 14-8-1 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 9-1 ATS when not laying 3 or more points, 9-3 ATS on the road, and 3-1-1 ATS off back to back losses.  Take the Rams.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over New England.  The Titans' offense has struggled the last two weeks without Derrick Henry in the fold, as they had two of their three lowest offensive outputs of the season, and failed to cover vs. New Orleans and Houston (and lost to Houston outright, as a 10.5-point favorite).  Meanwhile, the Patriots have been the hottest team in football, with five straight wins and covers, to move to 7-4 on the season.  Unfortunately for Bill Belichick's men, NFL teams off 5 SU/ATS wins have gone 69-90-6 ATS in the regular season when favored.  And teams -- like Tennessee -- off upset losses as favorites of more than 10 points, have gone 27-14 ATS, including 7-0 ATS when installed as an underdog of +4 to +9.5 points.  Take the Titans as a road underdog.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Houston.  The Texans snapped their 8-game losing streak last week when they upset Tennessee, 22-13, as a 10.5-point road underdog.  But off that huge upset win, we will fade the Texans as a home favorite this afternoon.  Since 1991, NFL teams off wins as a double-digit road underdog have gone 47-73-5 ATS, including 22-47-3 ATS vs. foes that don't have a winning record.  Additionally, the Texans are a poor 19-32 ATS off an upset win.  Take New York + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Atlanta/Jacksonville game.  The Jaguars have played their last five games Under the total, while the Falcons were shutout in their last game, so the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game this afternoon.  But teams off 5 straight unders have gone 'over' the total in their next game more often than not.  Additionally, when teams have gone 'under' in 4+ straight games, and their foe scored 7 or less in its previous game, those games have gone OVER the total 62.3% since 1980.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Jacksonville.  The Falcons are 4-6, and have dropped back to back games, as they lost by 40 to Dallas, and 25 to New England.  Yet they've been installed as a road favorite vs. Jacksonville.  On the surface, it may look difficult to lay points on the road with Atlanta.  But consider that NFL road teams have covered 65.3% over the past 42 seasons off back to back losses by more than 18 points, if their opponent was also off a SU loss.  That bodes well for Matt Ryan & Co. this afternoon.  As does the fact that .200 (or worse) teams, at Game 11 forward, have covered just 61 of 150 games if they weren't getting 4+ points.  Finally, the Jaguars are a wallet-busting 9-28-1 ATS as single-digit home dogs vs. non-division foes.  Lay the points with Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over Dallas.  The Raiders sprinted out to a 5-2 start, including two impressive wins against Denver and Philadelphia following the Jon Gruden resignation.  But then WR Henry Ruggs caused real damage to the team (not to mention himself, and the woman he killed), and the Raiders proceeded to lose their next three games to the Giants, Chiefs and Bengals.  Las Vegas is 5-5, so it needs to win this afternoon to get back in the Wild Card hunt.  We'll take the points, as .500 (or better) NFL teams, off back-to-back games where they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points, have cashed 65.7% since 1980 vs. .700 (or better) opposition.  Additionally, the Cowboys have covered just 10 of 37 games as a home favorite vs. non-division foes, if that opponent entered off a home loss.  Take the Raiders + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over the New York Giants.  We had our 2nd biggest play last week on the Washington Football Team as a double-digit dog vs. Tampa, and were rewarded with a huge upset win against Tom Brady & Co.  But Brady's teams have bounced back strong off losses in his career, as they've gone 58-31 ATS, including a perfect 4-0 ATS on Monday and Thursday night games, and 18-2 ATS vs. foes off back-to-back ATS wins.  With New York, indeed, riding a 3-game point spread win streak, we'll fade the Giants in Tampa.  Take the Buccaneers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Dallas.  To borrow a line from Mark Twain, the reports of Kansas City's death have been an exaggeration.  Yes, the Chiefs have not looked, at times, like the juggernaut from 2019-20, but their 41-14 dismantling of Las Vegas last week should serve as a reminder that they are a force with which to be reckoned.  And I believe the Chiefs are still woefully undervalued.  Last week, they laid just 2.5 points on the road vs. the Raiders (after being favored by 7.5, 7, and 14.5 points at the Raiders the three previous seasons).  Now, they're a short home favorite vs. an admittedly good Dallas team.  Still, Kansas City is 46-24 ATS in the regular season when not laying more than 7 points.  Meanwhile, Dallas is 14-33-1 ATS vs. winning opposition when not getting 3+ points.  Take the Chiefs to blow out Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings + the points over the Green Bay Packers.  Green Bay is 8-2, and has covered nine straight games (winning eight, straight-up), heading into this divisional match-up vs. Minnesota, which is 4-5 on the season.  Unfortunately, teams off 9 straight ATS wins have gone 0-5 ATS since Jan. 8, 2005.  And road teams, at Game 11 forward, have cashed just 1 of 14 divisional games vs. losing opposition, if our road team's ATS win percentage was greater than .750.  Take Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Miami.  The Dolphins pulled off a massive upset last week when they defeated the Baltimore Ravens, as an 8.5-point home dog.  Unfortunately, road teams have covered just 60 of 149 over the last 42 years following an upset win as a dog of more than 8 points, and just 37% when priced as a road favorite.  Take the New York Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:20 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over the New England Patriots.  The Patriots have won and covered four straight games following their overtime defeat to the Dallas Cowboys.  And their last game was the most impressive, as they completely dismantled a good Cleveland Browns club, 45-7, as a 2.5-point favorite.  They'll now play a Falcons squad which was destroyed last week by Dallas, 43-3.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to lay the points with New England, given that it won by 38 last week, while Atlanta lost by 40.  But consider that home underdogs, priced from +3 to +14 points, have gone 85-59 ATS off a loss by more than 14 points, if their opponent was off a win by more than 14 points.  Even better:  if our home dog gave up 37+ points in that previous game, while our road favorite scored 37+ points in its previous game, then our 85-59 stat zooms to a perfect 11-0 ATS.  Take Atlanta + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over Denver.  Last Sunday, the Broncos blew out Dallas, 30-16, as a double-digit underdog.  We had a big play on Denver last week, but will go against them here, as a home favorite.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL teams with a win percentage greater than .300, off a double-digit win as a double-digit underdog, have covered just 10 of 40 games.  That doesn't bode well for Denver on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that the Broncos are a woeful 13-26 ATS as a home favorite of more than 2 points off an upset win.  Take the Eagles + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Arizona Cardinals.  The Cards will be without QB Kyler Murray, and WR Deandre Hopkins this afternoon.  And that's enough for us to pull the trigger on Carolina (which will be starting its own backup QB in PJ Walker).  The Cardinals pulled off an upset last week against division rival San Francisco.  And that upset win over a division foe has triggered a very good 110-48-4 ATS system of mine, as well as a 119-73 ATS angle.  The Panthers have won + covered 5 straight in this series, including 10-point and 18-point upset wins the past two seasons.  Finally, the Cardinals are a dreadful 10-28 ATS as home favorites vs. foes not off an ATS win.  Take the Panthers as a road underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Tennessee.  The Titans pulled off a stunning upset last week, as a 7-point road underdog, for their fifth straight victory and ATS win.  And their last four wins were all upsets, as they also upset the Colts, in overtime, two weeks ago, and the Chiefs and Bills before that.  Unfortunately for the Titans, favorites (or PK) off 3 straight covers have gone 0-9 ATS their last 9, and 22-53-2 ATS their last 75, while favorites off 4 straight upset wins have covered just 14% since 1980.  Meanwhile, the Saints suffered an upset loss at the hands of the Falcons.  But NFL teams off upset losses have covered 52 of 75 vs. .750 (or better) teams off upset wins, if our team off the loss wasn't getting 6+ points in the current game.  Take the Saints.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Cleveland.  The Browns upset division rival Cincinnati, 41-16, last Sunday, and will try to make it two upsets in a row when they take on the Patriots.  But underdogs are a wallet-breaking 60-94 ATS off upset wins by 20+ points.  And .500 (or better) teams have gone 6-24 straight-up, and have covered just 7 of 30 games, against the Patriots in Foxboro, if our road team wasn't getting more than 7 points.  Take New England to blow out the Browns.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Pittsburgh.  The Lions are winless (0-8) on the season.  But they've actually performed better "in Vegas" than the 5-3 Steelers.  Detroit has gone 4-4 ATS, while Pittsburgh is 3-5 ATS after its point spread defeat this past Monday vs. Chicago.  We'll take the points with the Lions, as winless teams have gone 70-39 ATS as road underdogs of +7 (or more) points, if they were matched up against an opponent off a point spread defeat.  Take Detroit.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Buffalo/New York Jets game.  The Bills were shocked last week by the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were a 14.5-point underdog, yet won, 9-6.  The Bills tend to bounce back from losses, and their games also tend to be relatively low-scoring.  Indeed, Buffalo has played its last eight games 'under' the total following a straight-up loss, and 18 of its last 24, including 9-0 UNDER if the line was 42+ points.  Take the Jets/Bills UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Football Team + the points over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  When these two teams last met, the Bucs ousted Washington from the Playoffs, in a 31-23 win, as a 13.5-point road favorite.  Once again, the Bucs are favored by a big number on the road, and we'll grab the points with the home underdog.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL teams playing with revenge from a playoff defeat in the previous season have covered 73.3% when installed as a double-digit underdog.  Even better:  home underdogs priced from +7 to +13 points have gone 43-16 ATS vs. defending Super Bowl champions.  Take Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Jacksonville.  Last week, Urban Meyer's Jaguars upset Buffalo, 9-6, as a massive 14.5-point underdog.  Can they pull off back-to-back upsets?  It's definitely not likely, for several reasons.  First, last week's game was at home, vs. a non-division foe, while this is on the road, against a division rival.  And NFL road underdogs of more than 4 points have gone 13-98 SU and 35-73-3 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog of more than 4 points.  Likewise, NFL teams off upset wins at home vs. non-division foes have gone 94-129 ATS on the road vs. division rivals, including 38-68 ATS vs. foes off a SU win.  Take the Colts minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over the Green Bay Packers.  This game should have been a showcase for the two best quarterbacks in the game, but Aaron Rodgers contracted COVID-19, so he's on the shelf.  Jordan Love will now start for the Packers, so there's quite a mismatch behind center.  Green Bay has been terrific with Rodgers starting at quarterback (127-86-5 ATS in his career), but has burned money when he's been sidelined (7-11 ATS).  It's true that the Packers are on a 7-game SU/ATS win streak.  But NFL underdogs of more than 6 points, off 4 (or more) wins, have gone 1-17 SU and 3-15 ATS in the regular season vs. foes not off a SU/ATS win.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points with Kansas City.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

t 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs OVER the total.  The Packers have played their last five games 'under' the total, while the Chiefs have played their last 3 'under.'  Now, with 2020 MVP Aaron Rodgers sidelined, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game with Jordan Love at quarterback for Green Bay.  But consider that games involving one team off 5+ unders vs. another team off 3+ unders have gone OVER the total 55% of the time, including 63% when the O/U line has been greater than 40 points.  And the Chiefs also fall into a 126-76 Totals system of mine which indicates that they will go OVER the total.  This will be a high-scoring game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Arizona.  We played on the 49ers in the first meeting, and lost as a 5-point underdog, 17-10.  We'll take San Francisco to avenge that defeat in this rematch, as it falls into several of my favorite NFL systems, which have records of 243-148, 40-19, 224-141, and 225-128 ATS since 1980.  Even worse for Arizona.  It lost its first game, as a 6.5-point home favorite, vs. Green Bay last week.  But, dating back to 1987, .680 (or better) teams, off an upset loss, have cashed just 33.9% vs. foes off a straight-up win.  That doesn't bode well for Arizona to bounce back.  Take the Niners minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  The Cowboys have covered each of their first 7 games.  Unfortunately, NFL teams that start the season with a 4-0 (or better) ATS record have covered just 39.4% at home vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  With the Broncos, indeed, off a SU/ATS win last week vs. Washington, the elements of our angle are satisfied.  Denver also falls into 224-121 and 191-97 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams with winning ATS records.  Grab the points with the Broncos.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Buffalo.  The Jaguars finally got into the win column two games ago, when they beat Miami, but then lost to the Seahawks, 31-7, last week.  The Jags have been installed as a double-digit home underdog vs. the 5-2 Bills.  And it's been very profitable over the years to take double-digit home dogs, and especially if they were competitive in at least one of their two previous games, and their opponent wasn't off a SU loss.  In this situation, our double-digit home dogs have gone 84-48-2 ATS.  Even better, home dogs off a 23-point loss have gone 178-122 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes.  Take the Jaguars + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Cleveland.  Last week, we played against the Bengals following their huge upset win at Baltimore.  So, it wasn't a surprise that they suffered the biggest upset of any NFL team this season when they lost, 34-31, as a 10.5-point favorite to the New York Jets.  But off that embarrassing defeat, we'll take the Bengals to bounce back strong in this division rivalry.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, teams that lost on the road as a double-digit favorite have bounced back to cover the spread 60% of the time, including 80% ATS if they weren't favored by 3 points in the current game!  Even better:  the Bengals are 16-4 ATS their last 20 division home games when priced from -2 to -5.5 points.  Take the Bengals minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over the New Orleans Saints.  Last week, we played on the Saints in their upset win, as a 4-point home dog, over the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers.  But teams generally suffer letdowns following such games, and are a wallet-busting 39% ATS after a home upset win over defending champions, including 10-24 ATS their last 24 if they were an underdog of 4+ points in that upset win.  We also played against the Falcons last week, and got the $$$ when Carolina upset Atlanta on the road.   But I expect a bounce-back here, as the Falcons are a super 24-9 their last 33 as a road underdog, including 15-3 ATS if they weren't off a win in their previous game.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts UNDER the total.  The Jets have played their last four games OVER, including a 34-31 upset of the Bengals last week.  Meanwhile, the Colts have played four of their last 5 OVER, including a 34-31 overtime loss to Tennessee last week.  So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a high-scoring game tonight.  But I don't see it that way, as my numbers project a relatively low-scoring game.  Indeed, games involving a team off 4+ overs, with over/under lines of 45+ points, have gone 'under' 57% majority of the time when their opponent was also off 2+ overs.  Likewise, in matchups between two teams that were each involved in high-scoring (59+ points) games their last time out, the 'under' has cashed 67.8% over the past 36+ seasons when the over/under line ranged from 45 to 52 points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Dallas.  The Cowboys have won five straight games, yet find themselves installed as a road underdog tonight, as they might be without their quarterback, Dak Prescott, who is a 'game-time decision.'  We'll lay the points with Minnesota, and play against Dallas, as .800 (or better) NFL underdogs, at Game 7 forward, have covered just 31% of non-division games since 1980 when matched up against a non-winning opponent.  Take the Vikings to hand Dallas its first loss since Week 1.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the ponts over Tampa Bay.  The defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers routed the Chicago Bears, 38-3, last weekend.  Unfortunately, defending Super Bowl champs have covered just 33% as road favorites the following week after winning by 20+ points.  Moreover, Sean Payton has gone 59-27 ATS as coach of the Saints vs. .500 (or better) foes off a SU win.  Take New Orleans + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams and Houston Texans to go OVER the total.  The Rams are averaging 29.57 ppg, and have scored 28, 38, and 26 over their last three games.  They will surely put up points against a Texans club which has surrendered 31, 31 and 25 over its last three outings.  And while it's true that Houston's offense has its own issues, it did put up 22 vs. a very good Patriots defense here in its most recent home game.  And it's averaging 22.66 ppg at home this season (compared to just 7.25 ppg on the road).  I expect Houston to put up a much better fight this afternoon in front of its home faithful than it did on the road the past two weeks.  And the OVER also falls into a 62-31 Totals system of mine.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals UNDER the total.  This is the Bengals 3rd straight road game, and they exploded for 34 and 41 points in their first two.  Unfortunately that offensive output is unlikely to occur for a 3rd straight road game, as NFL teams that scored more than 28 in back to back road games only average 15.75 ppg in the 3rd road game.  And those games have gone 'under' the total by an average of 5.06 ppg.  The UNDER also falls into a super 92-46 Totals system of mine, and we'll look for a low-scoring game on Sunday.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over Buffalo.  These two teams met earlier this season, and the Bills walloped the Dolphins, 35-0.  We'll take Miami in the rematch as a huge double digit underdog, as NFL teams that played with revenge from a shutout loss earlier in the season, have cashed 70% when getting more than 4 points.  Additionally, since 1980, NFL teams playing with revenge from a loss by 35+ points have covered 68.4% vs. .666 (or better) division foes.  Take Miami + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Tennessee.  The Titans pulled off a big upset last week, when they knocked off Kansas City, 27-3, as a 4-point home underdog.  And that was the 2nd straight upset win at home by Tennessee.  But they're now playing on the road, and against a division foe which will seek revenge from a 9-point loss in Nashville, in September.  We'll go against Tennessee, as unrested road underdogs have covered just 38.7% over the last 42 seasons following back to back home upset wins.  Take Indianapolis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Cincinnati.  The 5-2 Bengals come into New York off a huge divisional upset win over the Baltimore Ravens, as they snapped Baltimore's 5-game win streak.  But NFL road favorites have covered just 28% since 1980 after an upset win as a 6-point (or greater) underdog, if that upset win involved two teams with .666 (or better) win percentages.  I look for a big letdown by the Bengals on the road.  Take the Jets + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Atlanta Falcons.  Carolina has lost its last 4 games in a row, but now fall into a 37-11 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams on long losing streaks, as well as a 51-32 ATS angle which plays on teams off outright losses as a road favorite, when matched up against opponents off SU/ATS wins as a road favorite.  With Carolina, indeed, off an upset, 25-3, loss on the road at New York, and Atlanta in off a road favorite SU/ATS win over the Dolphins, we'll grab the points with Carolina this afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Indianapolis.  Jimmy Garoppolo will be back on the field for this Sunday Night game, and that's all we need to pull the trigger on the 49ers.  In their last game, the Niners started rookie Trey Lance and -- though he did some things well -- on balance, he underwhelmed, (15-for-29, 192 yds, 1 INT), and was stopped at the goal line on a key rush attempt.  The 49ers had last week off to regroup from that loss (and the two previous losses before it), so they'll try to snap their 3-game losing streak tonight.  Key stat:  rested teams off 3+ losses are 85-58-2 ATS their last 145.  Even better:  San Francisco 84-57-3 ATS when favored by 3.5 (or more) points off an ATS loss, and it is also 7-0 ATS after not covering the spread in any of their three previous games.  Take the 49ers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Arizona.  The Cardinals are undefeated, and outscoring their opponents by 14.16 ppg.  On the opposite end of the spectrum are the Texans, who are being outscored by 13.33 ppg.  Thus, the relative Total Scoring Margin is +27.5 ppg for Arizona, which explains why we have such a high point spread.  But in the NFL, it's tough to lay this many points, regardless of how good (or bad) a team is.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL teams getting more than 17 points have cashed 21 of 36 games (58.3% ATS).  But if our underdog's relative scoring margin ranged between -20 and -30.5 points, then our underdogs of more than 17 points have gone 17-1 ATS, including an outright win by the Jets (+17.5) over the Rams last December, and another outright win by the Dolphins (+17.5) over the Patriots in December 2019.  Take Houston as a huge underdog.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over Las Vegas.  The Eagles last played 10 days ago, when they lost (but covered) in a Thursday Night home game vs. the defending champion, Buccaneers.  And that was the 2nd straight ATS win for Philadelphia.  Meanwhile, the Raiders started the post-Jon Gruden Era with a 34-24 upset win over division rival, Denver.  Unfortunately for the Raiders, they've covered just 29 of 84 following an upset win, including just 14 of 48 if their opponent was off a SU loss.  And Philly is an awesome 62-35-1 ATS in non-division games off a SU loss, if it wasn't favored by 3 or more points.  We'll grab the points with the road underdog Eagles.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants UNDER the total.  After giving up 44 points to Dallas and 38 points to the Los Angeles Rams (both of which average more than 400 yards per game), the Giants will no doubt be happy to face a middle-of-the-pack offensive team like Carolina.  Over the last 42 years, the Giants have gone 'under' the total 75% of the time after giving up 34+ points in back to back losses.  And they've also gone under 59% after a loss by 27+ points.  Finally, the Giants have gone 'under' in 19 of 28 games as a home underdog, including the last 6 in a row, while Carolina is 9-2 'under' as a road favorite.  This will be a very low-scoring game.  Take the under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins + the points over Green Bay.  The Packers are sitting at 5-1, with five straight wins and covers following their season-opening blowout loss vs. New Orleans.  Meanwhile, Washington is off back to back SU/ATS losses.  That's led to this number being inflated, and we'll step in and take Washington + the points.  For technical support, consider that Washington is 46-25 ATS vs. non-division foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  And the Packers have covered just 2 of 12 games vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss, if the Packers were off 4 SU/ATS wins.  Finally, NFL teams off 5 SU/ATS wins have covered just 36% vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses since 1980.  Take Washington + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Tennessee.  We played on the Titans as a home underdog last Monday night, and were rewarded with an upset win over the Buffalo Bills.  But off that victory, we will fade the Titans here, at home, as an underdog against Kansas City.  The fact of the matter is that it's tough for teams to pull off two straight upset wins, when coming off a short week following an upset win on Monday Night Football.  Indeed, consider that, since 1994, at Game 3 forward, NFL home dogs of less than seven points have gone 0-13 SU/ATS after an upset win at home on Monday Night Football the previous week.  That doesn't bode well for Tennessee here.  Likewise, if the short week was Sunday thru Thursday, those teams coming off an upset home win have gone 5-11 ATS as an underdog of less than 7 points (so, 5-24 ATS combined).  Finally, since Andy Reid has been coach of KC, it has gone 27-13 ATS vs. foes that covered the spread by more than 7 points in their previous game.  Take the Chiefs minus the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Atlanta Falcons.  The Dolphins were upset in London by the previously-winless Jaguars, 23-20, last Sunday.  Atlanta also played in London in its last game -- two weeks ago -- and it was victorious against the New York Jets.  We'll take Miami to bounce back here at home, as it's been installed as a home dog this afternoon.  And home underdogs are 134-103, 57% ATS following an upset loss, if they're playing an opponent off a SU win.  Meanwhile, the Falcons are a wallet-busting 10-22 ATS when not favored by more than 3 points against a foe off an upset defeat.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in tonight's game between Denver and Cleveland.  These two teams were both upset last Sunday.  Denver had its worst defensive effort of the season, as it gave up 34 to Las Vegas in a 10-point loss.  And Cleveland's defense was even worse, as it was wrecked by Arizona, 37-14, in a 23-point upset home loss.  But off those upset losses, I expect both teams to play much better defense tonight.  Indeed, Denver is 14-3 UNDER its last 17 off an upset loss, while Cleveland is 23-13 UNDER its last 36 off an upset loss.  And matchups between two teams off upset losses, in which they each gave up 28+ points, have gone UNDER the total 77.4% over the past 33 seasons, including a perfect 5-0 UNDER since last season.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  Tennessee returns home off back to back road games vs. the Jets and Jaguars, which they split with a loss at New York, and a 37-19 victory at Jacksonville last Sunday.  The Bills also won last week, as they upset the defending AFC champion, Kansas City Chiefs, 38-20, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  But off that huge upset win over the team that knocked it out of last year's playoffs, we will fade Buffalo on the road against Tennessee.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL teams off 18-point (or greater) upset wins have cashed just 35% on the road vs. foes off a win.  Even worse, teams off upset wins have cashed just 20% on Monday Night Football since 1980 as road favorites vs. non-division foes.  Meanwhile, home teams have gone 73-38-3 ATS on Monday Night Football, if they were off a road win, and were not laying more than 5 points.  Take the Titans as a home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over Dallas.  The Cowboys are on a 4-game win streak after winning 3 home games vs. Philadelphia, Carolina, and the New York Giants.  But from Week 3 forward, the Eagles are 1-3, the Panthers are 1-2, and the Giants are 1-2.  So, not exactly "Murderer's Row."  That's not to imply the Cowboys are playing poorly -- they're not.  But the fact that Dallas has rolled up 41, 36 and 44 points over those last three home games should be taken with a boulder of salt.  They'll now travel to Foxborough to take on a New England team which is giving up just 18.4 ppg (again, a far cry from teams like Philadelphia (25.33) and the Giants (27.8)).  We'll grab the points with New England, as teams (like Dallas) off back to back home wins, are 38% ATS in the regular season after scoring more than 30 points in back to back games.  And > .750 NFL teams playing away from home, without the better defense, have cashed just 37%.  Meanwhile, Bill Belichick's men are 14-0 SU and 12-1-1 ATS at home when not favored by 7+ points vs. an .800 (or better) opponent.  Finally, New England also falls into 363-266, 240-147 and 121-57 ATS systems of mine.  Take New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over Arizona.  The Cardinals are riding high with a 5-0 record, but have been installed as an underdog against the 3-2 SU/ATS Browns, who lost a heartbreaker to the Chargers, 47-42, last Sunday.  The Browns easily could also be 5-0, as their other loss was to the defending AFC champion Chiefs, 33-29, in Kansas City.  I look for the Browns to rebound big here, as teams off losses, in which they scored 37+ points, have gone 37-13 ATS vs. .300 (or better) foes, including a perfect 12-0 ATS if our 'play-on' team (here, Cleveland) owned an ATS record of .550 (or better).  That bodes well for the Browns here.  As does the fact that they're 5-0 ATS their last five when favored vs. the NFC.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Ravens were my preseason choice (at 16-1 odds) to win this year's Super Bowl, and they've won three of four nail-biters (along with one blowout vs. Denver) to move to 4-1 on the season.  Also 4-1 is Los Angeles, which has lost to just Dallas in its first five games.  Los Angeles has won and covered its last three, but road teams off back-to-back SU/ATS wins are a poor 69-102 ATS in the regular season vs. .800 (or better) teams.  Additionally, the Ravens are 30-16 ATS at home vs. winning teams when the Ravens were off an ATS loss, and not favored by 3+ points.  Take Baltimore.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  We played on Philly last week as a road dog at Carolina, and got the cash with an upset win.  They're now a home underdog vs. the defending Super Bowl champs, and we'll grab the points with Philly tonight.  Indeed, defending Super Bowl champs are a horrid 0-13 ATS following a home win, when favored on the road by 7 or less points vs. non-division foes, provided their opponent wasn't off back-to-back losses.  Even better, home underdogs of +1.5 (or more) points, off a SU road win, have gone 142-87 ATS vs. foes off a SU home win.  Take Philadelphia + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Buffalo.  The Bills will enter Arrowhead on quite a roll, as they've scored 35, 43 and 40 points in their last three games -- all blowout wins by more than 21 points.  But that's not necessarily a good thing, as road underdogs are a soft 24-42-2 ATS after 3 SU/ATS wins, in which they scored more than 95 point combined.  And road teams off three SU/ATS wins by 20+ points are a horrid 2-15-1 ATS if they weren't favored by more than 7 points in their current game.  It's been years since the Chiefs have been priced this inexpensive at home (with a healthy Patrick Mahomes), and we will take full advantage.  Indeed, Kansas City is 46-19 ATS at home if it wasn't off a SU/ATS loss, and it wasn't favored by 3 or more points.  Take the Chiefs to blow out Buffalo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers + the points over Arizona.  Last week, the Cardinals stunned the Los Angeles Rams, 37-20, as a road underdog at SoFi Stadium.  But off that upset win, we will fade the unbeaten Cardinals as a home favorite.  Indeed, the Cardinals are a wallet-breaking 7-20 ATS as a home favorite, including 0-7 ATS vs. a division rival.  And they're 8-28 ATS at home vs. a foe not off a point spread win, including 0-10 ATS vs. a foe off an upset loss!  Meanwhile, the 49ers are a reliable 37-12 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against a .500 (or better) foe.  Finally, the Cardinals fall into a negative 24-62 ATS system of mine which goes against certain home favorites off upset wins, while the 49ers fall into 363-264 and 132-69 ATS angles that play on certain teams with inferior scoring margins than their opponent.  Take San Francisco.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Cleveland Browns/Los Angeles Chargers game.  The Browns held their two previous opponents -- Chicago and Minnesota -- to 6 and 7 points, respectively.  But neither the Bears nor the Vikings will be in the post-season.  Los Angeles, on the other hand, is looking every bit like a Super Bowl contender.  The Chargers' offense has tallied 30 and 28 points its last two games, and will put pressure on the Browns' defense.  Justin Herbert has completed 69% of his passes for 1178 yards and nine TDs.  I also believe Cleveland will find success on the ground behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, as the Chargers rank 29th against the run, and are giving up 140 yards per game, on a horrid 5.26 yards per carry!  For technical support, consider that NFL teams have gone OVER the total 61.1% of the time when the line was greater than 46 points, if they gave up 15 (or less) points combined over the previous two games.  Take the OVER!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Philadelphia Eagles/Carolina Panthers game.  After giving up just 6 and 17 points in their first two games, the Eagles' defense has been leaky of late, as it's given up 41 and 42 points the past two weeks -- both double-digit losses.  Likewise, Carolina's defense surrendered 36 points last week to Dallas (in a 36-28 loss), after giving up just 7 and 9 its two previous games.  I look for both defenses to return to form on this Sunday, and play much better than in recent weeks.  For technical support, consider that the Eagles have gone 'UNDER' in 56 of 80 games after playing a game where 58+ points were scored.  And NFL games have gone under the total 58% since 1985 if both teams were off a game where more than 60 points was scored.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos.  After starting the year with an impressive 23-16 win over (arguably) the AFC's most impressive team, the Steelers have stumbled badly, with three consecutive defeats to the Raiders, Bengals and Packers.  And they scored just 17, 10 and 17 points in those three games.  The good news here is that Pittsburgh tends to bounce back at home off back-to-back losses, as they're 37-17 straight-up, 33-21 ATS, and 34-18-2 OVER the total.  Pittsburgh's also 66-40 OVER the total when the line has been less than 40 points.  Likewise, the Broncos also stumbled on offense last week, as they lost 23-7 to Baltimore.  But the Broncos are 14-1-1 OVER the total after losing a game in which less than 33 total points were scored.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the New England Patriots/Houston Texans game.  The Texans were shut out last week, 40-0, by the Buffalo Bills.  So, clearly, their offense behind rookie QB Davis Mills is a mess right now.  Of course, the oddsmakers have made their adjustments, and the over/under line for this game is more than 7 points lower than either game each of these teams played last week.  From my perspective, the oddsmakers have over-reacted, and there's significant value in taking the OVER in this game.  For technical support, consider than NFL games have gone OVER the total 65.5% over the last 42 years, if both teams were coming into the game off an UNDER, and both teams had over/under lines more than 6 points greater in their previous game than the current game.  Take the OVER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the Carolina Panthers.  The Eagles come into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses, with each of their two previous defeats coming by double-digits.  But I love the Eagles this Sunday afternoon, as teams off 3+ losses have covered 60% vs. winning foes, if our team wasn't getting 4+ points.  And Philly is 39-21 ATS on the road off back to back defeats, including 22-8 ATS when the game was competitively-priced with a point spread less than 4 points.  Take the Eagles.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Las Vegas Raiders/Los Angeles Chargers game.  Each of these two AFC West division rivals has gone 'under' the total a significant amount of the time when playing a division foe.  To wit:  the Chargers are 80-33-1 UNDER the total when playing at home vs. an AFC West opponent.  And the Raiders are 62-37-1 UNDER the total on the road in division games.   And the 'under' also falls into a 20-1 Totals system of mine, as well as a 67-35 Monday Night Football Totals system.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over New Orleans.  New York is 0-3 to start the season.  But I won't pass up taking points from a Saints team which is an ugly 29-60 ATS as a home favorite vs. .500 (or worse) foes off a loss.  Moreover, winless teams are a superb 241-176 on the non-division road since 1980.  And, finally, the Giants are a wallet-fattening 17-0 ATS their last 17 NFC conference road games when they've owned a losing record.  Take New York + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Tennessee Titans to go OVER the total.  Both of these teams come into this game off low-scoring games.  The Jets were shutout, 26-0, as a 10-point road underdog in Denver, while Tennessee won, 25-16, as a 4.5-point home favorite vs. the Colts.  New York has played each of its three games under the total, while the Titans have played two of their first three under the total.  And this general paucity of scoring in the games played by these teams thus far has led to the number on this game moving 2 to 3 points down from the opener.  I think this is a severe over-reaction to the fact that the Jets have scored just 20 points this season.  Indeed, New York's first 3 opponents (Denver, Carolina, New England) currently rank #1, #2 and #5 in scoring defense!  The Titans, on the other hand, are giving up a whopping 28 points per game, and rank #25 in scoring defense.  I fully expect the Flyboys to be able to put up some points here, at home, on this Sunday afternoon.  Tennessee has played 7 of its last 8 (and 12 of its last 16) road games over the total, and has surrendered an average of 28.63 ppg in its last eight road games.  And it's 9-0-1 'over' the total its last 10 games off a home win.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Cincinnati.  Last week, the Bengals went into the Steel City, and upset Pittsburgh, 24-10, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  Unfortunately, the Bengals are a horrid 0-11 ATS as a favorite of more than 6 points off a division win by more than 6 points.  The Jaguars are off to an 0-3 start in the Urban Meyer era, and each loss has been by double-digits.  But we'll step in and take the Jags as a big road underdog in this Nationally Televised game.  Over the years, the league's worst teams have stepped up when the spotlight was on, as teams with a win percentage less than .200 are 15-4 ATS as underdogs of more than 7 points on Monday/Thursday night games.  Even better:  winless road underdogs are 212-152-6 ATS in non-division games, including 16-5 ATS if they were off three straight double-digit defeats.  Take the Jaguars + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over Tampa Bay.  The Buccaneers come into this game off a blowout, 48-25 win over Atlanta.  That was also the 10th straight win by the Buccaneers dating back to last season.  But defending Super Bowl champs have struggled off blowout wins by 20+ points, and especially on the road vs. non-division foes, as they've covered just 34.3% over the last 42 seasons.  That doesn't bode well for Tom Brady & Co. on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that NFL road favorites, off back to back wins, in which they scored more than 30 points, have covered just 48 of 125 vs. non-division foes.  Take the Rams as a home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  The Raiders come into this game off back-to-back upset wins to start the season.  And they've been installed as a home favorite over Miami, which was shutout last week by Buffalo, 35-0.  We'll play on the Dolphins to bounce back in this game, as .500 (or better) single-digit road underdogs are 91-59 ATS in regular season, non-division games since 1980 after failing to cover the spread by more than 14 points in their previous game.  Even better:  the Raiders have been huge money-burners as favorites, as they're 20-39-1 ATS their last 60 as chalk, including 10-33-1 ATS vs. foes that didn't have a winning ATS record.  The Dolphins are 11-4-1 ATS the last 16 meetings, including 6-1-1 ATS off a loss.  And they're 17-6 ATS their last 23 games as an underdog.  Take Miami + the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Denver Broncos.  This is the only match-up this week which pits a 2-0 SU/ATS team vs. an 0-2 SU/ATS team.  Many bettors might rush to the side of the Broncos, given that they will be playing their home opener off two impressive road wins to start the season.  But 2-0 NFL teams have only covered 28% as home favorites over the last 42 years vs. foes off to an 0-2 SU/ATS start!  And home favorites playing their home opener after starting the season with 2 (or more) road games have also been horrible, as they've gone 8-23-2 ATS since 2005 (and 39-61-3 ATS since 1980).  Take the points with the Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over the New York Giants.  Atlanta has opened the 2021 season with back to back blowout losses -- by 26 to Philly, and by 23 to Tampa Bay.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the Falcons here, as a small road underdog.  But consider that, in Week 3, NFL teams that lost their first two games each by 9+ points, and also failed to cover the spread in each game by 9+ points, have covered 70.9% as an underdog in Week 3.  The Giants have covered just one of their last eight games as a non-division favorite.  And they're 25-37-1 ATS as a home favorite vs. non-division foes off a loss, including 4-15-1 ATS when favored by 3 points or less.  Take Atlanta.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Football Team over the Buffalo Bills.  We played on the Bills last week, as it was a perfect "bounce-back" spot following their upset loss in Week 1, as the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers.  And Buffalo rewarded us with a 35-0 victory.  Unfortunately, NFL teams off shutout wins have covered just 73 of 181 games vs. .333 (or better) foes off a straight-up win, including just 3-23 ATS if our 'play-against' team (here, Buffalo) scored 35+ points in its shutout victory.  Grab the points with Washington.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over the Tennessee Titans.  The Colts should be starting QB Carson Wentz this afternoon, and that's enough for us to pull the trigger on Indianapolis as a road underdog.  Indianapolis has a brutal opening schedule this season (the hardest in the NFL), with its first five games against teams with winning records last season (Seahawks, Rams, Titans, Dolphins, Ravens).  The only other team to even come close to this difficult of an opening schedule is the Raiders, who opened with three teams that had winning records last season (Ravens, Steelers, Dolphins).  So, one shouldn't necessarily over-react to the fact that the Colts are 0-2 to start the season.  They'll play their first division contest of 2021 this afternoon when they travel to Nashville to take on the 1-1 Titans, who upset Seattle, 33-30, as a 6.5-point road underdog last week.  Unfortunately for Tennessee, teams off big upset wins over superior teams generally have letdowns when matched up against inferior teams in their next game, as they cover only 40.8% of the time since 1980.  And Tennessee has historically been a poor favorite, as it's 32-53-2 ATS when laying more than 3 points.  Meanwhile, Indy is 44-21 ATS off a loss, including 23-8-1 ATS on the road.  Take the Colts + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Detroit.  Last week, Aaron Rodgers played one of the worst games of his storied career.  The Packers were favored by 3.5 points against New Orleans, yet only scored three in a blowout loss by 35 points.  But one of the things I often like to do is play on teams that scored less points in an upset loss than they were actually favored by, as those teams have bounced back in their next game much more often than not.  Even better:  Green Bay is a jaw-dropping 34-6 ATS its last 40 (and 10-0 ATS its last 10) with Rodgers at QB, following a game in which it scored less than 23 points!  And Green Bay is also an awesome 50-21-1 ATS in Rodgers' starts when favored by less than 13 points against a foe off an ATS win, including 10-1 ATS if the Packers were upset in their previous game.  Lay the points with the Packers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens + the points over Kansas City.  Last week, the Ravens were upset, in overtime, by Las Vegas, while Kansas City eked out a 4-point win over a very good Browns team.  The good news for the Ravens is that NFL home teams off a upset road loss have cashed 60.3% since 1980 vs. foes off a straight-up win.  And Baltimore has cashed 76.4% as an underdog over the last 42 years off an upset loss, when matched-up against a non-division foe off a SU win.  Take the Ravens + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over the Miami Dolphins.  Last week, the Dolphins were out-yarded, 393-259, by New England, but benefited from two fumbles by the Patriots to escape with a 17-16 upset win.  This week, they'll take on a Bills team which is no doubt smarting from its 23-16 upset home loss to Pittsburgh last Sunday.  And the Bills also had tough luck, as they out-yarded the Steelers, 371 to 252, but lost the turnover battle (and the war).  Over the last 42 seasons, Game 2 road teams off upset losses have cashed 61% vs. foes off upset wins.  Even better:  Buffalo's 13-2 ATS vs. the Dolphins, if Miami was off an upset win in its previous game.  And the Bills are 33-13-1 ATS off a loss, if their opponent was off an upset win.  Take Buffalo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over the Houston Texans.  Houston pulled off one of Week 1's biggest shockers when they upset Jacksonville, 37-21, as a 3.5-point home underdog.  Unfortunately for Houston, double-digit road underdogs, off a double-digit upset win at home, have covered just 32.2% over the past 42 NFL seasons, including just 23% vs. a foe off a point spread win.  Take Cleveland to rout the Texans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the New Orleans Saints.  Last week, the Saints routed Green Bay, which was the #1 NFC seed in the previous season's playoffs.  But NFL road favorites (or PK) that upset an opponent in Week 1, which won 10+ games the previous games, have generally had a letdown in Week 2, as they've cashed just 38% since 1980.  Take the Panthers + the points over New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  Last season, the Raiders were a .500 ball club, and missed the playoffs, while Baltimore went 11-5, and reached the Divisional round of the playoffs.  Over the years, it's been unprofitable to back playoff teams from the previous season in Game 1, if they were matched up against non-playoff teams.  This is the 4th of such meetings this season, and the point spread result of the first three (Cowboys over Bucs, Cardinals over Titans, and Chargers over Football Team) all went the way of the team which failed to make the playoffs last season.  And when such Game 1 meetings have occurred on Monday Night Football, our non-playoff teams have gone 14-6 ATS.  That bodes well for Las Vegas today.  As does the fact that Vegas is 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 Monday Night games, and 16-11 ATS as a non-division home dog of +4 (or more) points, while Baltimore is a wallet-breaking 7-20 ATS as a non-division road favorite priced at -4 (or more) points.  Take the Raiders.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Miami.  When these two AFC East division rivals last met, the Dolphins pounded the Patriots, 22-12, as a 2-point home underdog.  That defeat prevented Bill Belichick's men from having their 20th consecutive winning season.  With revenge on their mind, I expect the Patriots to make a statement here, at home.  Indeed, New England is 20-4 ATS when playing with revenge against a division opponent which upset it in the previous meeting.  And it's also 8-1 ATS the last nine meetings at home vs. Miami, and 16-5-3 ATS in its home openers when priced from -3 to -10 points.  Lay the points with New England. 

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos minus the points over the New York Giants.  This past preseason, the Giants failed to win a game.  And that doesn't bode well for New York in this season opener, as NFL teams have gone 7-24 ATS their last 31 season openers after going winless in the preseason.  Even worse:  New York is 3-14 ATS its last 17 as a single-digit home underdog, including 0-8 ATS its last eight vs. non-division foes.  Meanwhile, Denver is 16-9-1 ATS in its season-openers vs. non-division opponents, and it's 19-12 ATS as a road favorite of -3 (or more) points.  Ultimately, this will be a difficult match-up for Daniel Jones, who will be without injured TE Evan Engram as an option.  Denver's secondary is going to give New York's receivers fits.  With guys like Callahan, Surtain and Fuller, the Broncos will contain Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton.  The Giants will no doubt lean heavily on Saquon Barkley this afternoon, but he is coming off major surgery, and could be on a snap count.  All in all, Denver has a clear advantage in this match-up, and should win the game going away.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our AFC South Game of the Month is on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the points over the Houston Texans.  Last season, the Jaguars won just one game (which enabled them to draft QB Trevor Lawrence in the Draft), while Houston wasn't much better at 4-12.  But the fact that the Jaguars are favored on the road in this season opener should tell you what most expect from the Texans this season (and it isn't much).  Last year, Houston won both meetings vs. the Jaguars.  Unfortunately, NFL teams have covered just 36% in Game 1 over the last 31 years if their opponent was a double-revenging division rival.  Take Jacksonville to blow out Houston on Sunday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Falcons have dominated their home openers over the years, as they're 17-5 ATS their last 22.  And this is a good set-up for the homestanding team, given Philadelphia's road woes, of late (0-6 SU/ATS last six).  Both teams will be breaking in new head coaches:  Arthur Smith in Atlanta, and Nick Sirianni in Phiily.  But Smith has the huge benefit of having a much more experienced quarterback in Matt Ryan.  And Ryan will be able to pick apart the Eagles' shaky secondary this afternoon, as I expect Calvin Ridley to torment Eagles CB Darius Slay.  And rookie TE Kyle Pitts also should be in for a big afternoon in his NFL debut, as the Eagles don't have anyone who can stay with him.  The Falcons are a solid 30-16-1 ATS when priced from -3 to -6.5 points when they didn't own a losing record.  Lay the points with Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 6:30 pm, on February 7, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over Kansas City.  These two teams played here, in Tampa, back in late November.  And the Chiefs won a 27-24 game, as a 3.5-point road favorite.  But that was the last game the Buccaneers have lost, as they've ripped off seven straight wins to reach the Super Bowl.  And they'll have the unusual benefit of playing the game in their home stadium, which will be the first time in Super Bowl history that a team has played the game in its home stadium (though others have played in their home region before).  The most impressive thing about Tampa's path to this game is that it had to win all three playoff games on the road.  And the Bucs scored 30+ points in each of their Playoff wins.  The win vs. Green Bay was especially impressive given that the Packers hadn't allowed an opponent to score more than 28 points at Lambeau Field in their previous 15 games.  The Chiefs, by virtue of their #1 seed, had a much easier path to this title game.  They played through an injury to Patrick Mahomes in their 5-point win over the Cleveland Browns.  And then they played, perhaps, their best game of the season when they routed a very good Buffalo Bills squad, 38-24, in the AFC Championship game.  Unfortunately, though, for Kansas City, NFL teams are a soft 23-37-1 ATS on the road after scoring 35+ points at home in their previous game.  And, even worse, in non-division match-ups between winning teams, favorites of 7 or less points (or PK) are a woeful 20-47-1 ATS away from home vs. revenge-minded clubs.  Certainly, Kansas City is the league's most dangerous offensive team, with Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce.  It averages 29.6 ppg, which is in line with last year's title-winning club (29.8 ppg).  But the Chiefs' defense dropped off a little this season, as it's giving up 22.38 ppg, which ranks as the 6th-worst such mark of the 82 teams over the past 41 seasons.  And that doesn't bode well for Kansas City, as NFL teams are 0-8 ATS in Super Bowls when priced from -2.5 to -6 points, if they give up 18+ points on defense.  Finally, Tom Brady's teams have gone 18-5 ATS when playing with revenge, and not favored by more than 1 point, including 6-0 ATS the last six at home, or on a neutral field.  Grab the points with Tampa Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills to go 'over' the total.  This play is largely technical in nature, as it falls into two very good Playoff totals systems of mine that are 33-15 and 73-38 since 1991.  And we'll look for a high-scoring game regardless of who is under center for Kansas City on Sunday.  For further technical support, consider that the Chiefs are 19-12 'over' the total in games after both they and their opponent went 'under' in their previous games, while Playoff games have sailed 'over' the total 62% since 1980 when the line was greater than 53 points, and the two teams averaged a combined 59+ points on offense.  Finally, NFL Conference Championship games have gone 'over' 63% when the line was greater than 46 points.  Take the Bills and Chiefs to go over the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Tampa Bay.  Two weeks ago, in the Wild Card round, we played on the Rams to upset Seattle as our #1 Side Play in the opening round of the Playoffs.  Then, last week, we tabbed Green Bay over the Rams as our top Side play in the quarterfinals.  For the semi-finals, we'll once again take the Packers as our #1 play, and go against a Buccaneers team playing its 3rd straight road game.  Last Saturday, the Ravens also were saddled with their 3rd straight road game, and they were annihilated by Buffalo, 17-3.  In the NFL Playoffs, since 1980, teams playing their 3rd straight game on the road are a woeful 22-40-3 ATS.  That doesn't bode well for Tampa Bay at Lambeau.  And neither does the fact that Green Bay is an awesome 11-0 ATS with Aaron Rodgers under center, if the Packers weren't favored by 13+ points, and their opponent was off a point spread win, and playing their 2nd straight road game.  Of course, it's true that Tampa Bay handed the Packers their worst loss of the seasons -- a 38-10 trouncing.  But Green Bay has gone 15-1 SU and 14-2 ATS with Rodgers at QB, when playing with revenge, and favored between -2 and -7 points. Take the Packers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over New Orleans.  This is a big revenge game for Tom Brady & Co., as they were blown out, 38-3, at home in the previous meeting.  We played on New Orleans in that game, but will take Tampa Bay this evening.  For technical support, consider that revenge-minded teams that lost by 30+ points earlier in the season, have gone 6-0 ATS as single-digit underdogs.  Even better:  Tom Brady's a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season by 13+ points, and 11-1 SU/ATS his last 12 games vs. division rivals when playing with revenge (regardless of the margin of defeat).  And, finally, NFC South division teams have gone 10-0 ATS since 2003 when playing with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) defeat earlier in the season.  Take Tampa Bay + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Cleveland.  Last week, the Browns won their biggest game in decades when they went into Pittsburgh, and upset their rivals, 48-37, as a 5-point underdog.  But off that huge win, we'll fade the Browns this afternoon.  In general, I prefer to go against teams off big offensive playoff wins.  And especially when such teams don't have great defenses to match their high-octane offenses.  And Cleveland does not.  The Browns are scoring 26.82 ppg this season, but also giving up the exact amount, on defense.  In contrast, Kansas City only gives up 22.62 ppg.  And to put the Browns' defense into context, consider that there have been just 6 NFL teams of 480 that made the playoffs over the last 41 seasons to have given up more than 26 points per game!  We'll go against Cleveland, as NFL teams that scored more than 38 points in their previous game are 0-11 ATS on the road if they didn't have a better defense than their opponent.  That doesn't bode well for Cleveland at Arrowhead this afternoon.   Nor does the fact that teams that covered the spread by more than 13 points the previous week have cashed just 16% in the Playoffs vs. defending Super Bowl champions.  And, finally, Andy Reid-coached teams have gone 67% ATS, including 6-2, 75% ATS in the Playoffs, when they were off a bye week, which gave Reid an extra week to prepare.  Take the Chiefs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Buffalo/Baltimore game.  Last week, the Ravens were favored by 3.5 points against Tennessee, and won a low-scoring game, 20-13.  And that was the eighth straight Playoff game (and 10th of the last 11) where the Ravens went 'UNDER' the total as a favorite.  But when the Ravens have been installed as an underdog (as they are, here), then it's been a completely different story, as they've gone OVER in those games 6-3-1.  Likewise, the Bills have gone OVER 29-14-1 as a favorite (compared to 18-8 'under' as an underdog).  We'll take the OVER on Saturday night, as each of these teams average more than 28 points per game on offense.  And in match-ups between two teams that average 28+ points, NFL games have gone 'over' the total 61% of the time since 1985.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Los Angeles.  We played on the Rams as our #1 Wild Card side selection last week, and were rewarded with an upset victory over division rival, Seattle.  But off that upset win, we'll fade Sean McVay's men at Lambeau Field on Saturday.  Indeed, NFL teams off upset Playoff wins are a dreadful 2-23 straight-up, and 5-20 ATS in the quarterfinals when priced from +4 to +8 points.  Even better:  the Packers are 11-6-1 ATS in the Playoffs with Aaron Rodgers under center, including a perfect 4-0-1 ATS vs. foes off an upset win.  And they're also an exceptional 61-35-4 ATS at Lambeau with Rodgers (whether regular season or post-season), including 12-1 ATS their last 13 vs. foes off SU/ATS wins.  Lay the points with Green Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Green Bay/Los Angeles Rams game, as it falls into a 52-24 Totals system of mine.  This game has all the earmarks of a high-scoring game.  The Packers are averaging 31.8 ppg, and will be playing at home following a Bye week last weekend.  And high-octane NFL offenses that average more than 31 ppg have gone 'over' the total 23-11-1 since 1985 when playing at home in the Playoffs.  Moreover, in his career, Aaron Rodgers has gone 'over' the total 32-14 when the Packers were favored from -4.5 to -7 points, including 14-2 'over' their last 16.  And, with Rodgers at the helm, Green Bay has gone 'over' the total in 12 of 18 playoff games.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Baltimore/Tennessee game.  The Titans have gone 12-3-1 'over' the total this season, including 3-0 'over' their last three, and 7-1 'over' their last eight.  The only game the Titans have played in the season's 2nd half which didn't go 'over' the total was their 31-10 victory over the offensively-challenged Jaguars (who averaged just 19.1 ppg this year).  But Tennessee will be playing the Ravens this Sunday afternoon.  And John Harbaugh's men have scored 29.25 ppg, including 37.2 ppg over their last five games.  For technical support, consider that, over the last 41 seasons, NFL teams that played 80+ percent of their games 'over' the total, have gone 'over' in their Playoff game 71% of the time.  Even better:  the Titans come into this game off a 41-38 win at Houston last Sunday.  And the Titans have now gone 'over' the total 10-0-1 off a win.  Finally, NFL Playoff games have gone 'over' the total 80% of the time over the past 20 years if a team's previous game totaled more than 76 points.  This will be a high-scoring game.  Take the Ravens/Titans 'over' the total.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Washington Football Team + the points over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The Football Team was fortunate it played in the NFC (L)East division this season, as it qualified for the Playoffs with a 7-9 record.  But every team is 0-0 when the Playoffs start, so there's no reason Washington can't find success in this tournament.  And, historically, mediocre teams have done VERY WELL in the NFL Playoffs, provided they played AT HOME.  Indeed, sub-.560 NFL teams have gone 5-0-1 SU/ATS at home in the NFL playoffs, including outright wins as a +7.5-point underdog (Denver/Pitt, 2012) and as a +10-point home underdog (Seattle/N.O., 2011).  In contrast, on the road, such teams have covered just 5 of 20 games.  The Buccaneers erupted for 44 points last week, in a 17-point win over Atlanta.  Unfortunately, NFL playoff teams have gone 34-51 ATS away from home after scoring 35+ points in their previous game (against an opponent which didn't score 35+ points in its previous game).  And Tampa's opponent last week -- Atlanta -- had a defensive average of 24.66 ppg, so it wasn't surprising the Bucs were able to post a lot of points.  But Tampa has struggled this season vs. foes (like Washington) with defensive averages of less than 21 ppg, as it's 0-4 ATS (compared to 9-3 ATS vs. foes with defenses that gave up 21+ ppg).  Meanwhile, Washington has excelled vs. high-octane offenses (like Tampa's) that score at least 28 ppg, as it's 4-0 ATS (compared to 5-7 ATS vs. foes with offense that don't score 28+ ppg).  And the Football Team held those 4 explosive offenses to just 17.75 ppg.  Take Washington + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Los Angeles Rams/Seattle Seahawks game.  These two teams met just two weeks ago, and Seattle held the Rams to just 9 points, in a 20-9 win.  But playoff rematches of games involving a team which scored less than 10 points in the previous matchup have gone over the total 61% since 1980 due, in part, to that team's offense being much more productive in the Playoff game.  And .600 (or better) teams -- like the Rams -- that managed to score no more than 50 points combined over their three previous games, have gone 'over' the total 59-33, including over the total in 7 of 8 Playoff games!  This will be a relatively-high scoring game.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over Seattle.  These two teams met two weeks ago in Seattle, and the Seahawks won, 20-9, as a 1.5-point home favorite.  The line for this game is slightly higher, given the injuries on the side of the Rams.  I like the underdog here, as revenge-minded NFL underdogs off a SU win have cashed 80% in the Wild Card round vs. division foes.  And the revenger in this NFC West division rivalry is 9-5 ATS, including 4-1 ATS as an underdog.  Even better:  the Rams own the superior defense, as it allows just 18.5 ppg (Seattle's defense allows 23.18).  And Playoff underdogs of +4 or less points, with a defense which rates at least 4.5 ppg better, have covered 71% over the last 41 years.  Take the Rams.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over Washington.  The Eagles suffered an upset loss to Dallas last week, as they succumbed 37-17, as a 4.5-point favorite.  But off that defeat, we'll take Philly as a home underdog on Sunday night.  Indeed, over the past 36 years, NFL underdogs (or PK) off an upset loss by more than 10 points have gone 123-78-5 ATS vs. division rivals.  And the Football Team has covered just 59 of its last 158 games as a favorite, including 19 of 63 vs. division foes.  Take Philadelphia.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Jacksonville.  It seems like ages ago, but the Jaguars won their first game of the season (and their ONLY game this season) when they upset the Colts in Week 1, as a big home underdog.  I expect the Colts to avenge that loss today with a big victory at home.  Indeed, favorites of more than 13 points have covered 86% over the past 41 years when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take the Colts minus the points.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  The Broncos have been terrific as home underdogs, or small favorites over the years.  And especially if their opponent wasn't off a momentum-building SU/ATS win.  In that instance, the Broncos have gone 31-7 ATS at home when not favored by 2+ points, including 21-1-2 ATS when matched up against an opponent with a .625 (or worse) record.  Meanwhile, the Raiders are a dismal 12-22 ATS in their final road game of the season, including 0-5 ATS as a favorite.  Take Denver to blow out Las Vegas.

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At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Indianapolis Colts/Jacksonville Jaguars game.  This should be one of those games where the Colts can "name their score." Certainly, a blowout at half-time would not surprise.  And first-half blowouts often result in the leading team taking its foot off the gas in the 2nd half.  Dating back to 1985, NFL games with point spreads of 14+ points have gone 'under' the total 65.7% of the time in the season's final two weeks.  Take the 'under.'

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Los Angeles Rams/Arizona Cardinals game.  These two teams met four weeks ago, and the Rams won a 38-28 shootout.  The line for that game was 55 points, so it sailed over the total by 11 points.  Yes, a lot of offensive pieces are missing for this game (e.g., Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp, Darrell Henderson, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, etc.), but the oddsmakers' movement of this number down to this level was a vast over-reaction.  The 'over' falls into a 28-7 Totals system of mine, and we'll look for a relatively-high scoring game on Sunday afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Kansas City will be resting most of its better players, so they have been installed as a home underdog today vs. its division rival, the LA Chargers.  We'll lay the points with the Chargers, as underdogs off 5+ wins -- like Kansas City -- are a wallet-breaking 13-33 ATS when installed as an underdog of 3+ points.  And defending Super Bowl champs are a poor 4-13 ATS off back to back wins, if they are an underdog vs. an opponent off a win, including 1-7 vs. division rivals.  Finally, road favorites have covered 63% over the previous 20 seasons in the final week of the season, if they owned a WORSE record than the home team.  Take the Chargers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the NY Giants over the Dallas Cowboys.  Both of these NFC East division rivals have hopes of making the Playoffs.  And we'll take the homestanding Giants this afternoon.  It's true that Dallas has a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, while the NY Giants are on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak.  But over the last 41 years, road favorites of 7 or less points (or PK) are an unsightly 25% ATS vs. foes that were on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak!  Even worse, the Cowboys are 0-16 ATS in their final road game of the season when the game was competitively-priced with a point spread of less than 4 points!  Take the Giants.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the under in the Minnesota/Detroit game.  Both of these also-rans have dismal defenses.  Minnesota gives up 29.3 ppg, while Detroit gives up 32.1 ppg.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a high-scoring game in this meaningless, final game of the season.  But final games of the NFL season that involve at least one team with a defense which give up 28+ points have gone 'under' 67.3% since 1981.  The 'under' also falls into 113-74 and 103-47 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the under in the Los Angeles Chargers/Denver Broncos game.  These two 5-9 teams are playing out the string at this point after having a disappointing season.  Last week, Denver was routed by Buffalo, 48-19, while the Chargers won, 30-27, in overtime against Las Vegas.  However, but for the overtime session, the Chargers game would have gone 'under' the total, which would have been its fourth straight 'under.'  We'll play on the 'under' in this penultimate game of the season, as the Chargers have gone under 79-33-1 at home vs. division rivals, including each of the last seven vs. the Broncos.  Even better: NFL games with O/U lines of 45+ points have gone 'under' 58.2% if one team's most recent game totaled more than 65 points, while its opponent's most recent game totaled 55+ points.  Finally, the 'under' also falls into a 129-77 Totals system of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points over Indianapolis.  After streaking out to an 11-0 record, the Steelers have dropped each of their last three games.  But the last two were both on the road, so I expect the Steelers to rebound at home this afternoon.  Indeed, since Dec. 20, 1981, winning teams have covered 69.0% at home, if they lost their two previous games on the road, and were favored by less than 10 points (or PK).  Take the Steelers.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over the Chicago Bears.  Last week, the Cincinnati Bengals seemingly did the Jaguars a favor when the upset the Steelers to move the Jaguars into the pole position to draft Clemson's star QB, Trevor Lawrence.  Of course, if the Jaguars upset the Bears this afternoon, those future plans would likely be dashed.  On the surface, it certainly looks like a tall task.  After all, the Jaguars have lost 13 straight games, while Chicago is making a late push for the playoffs.  But there's great risk in laying a lot of points with the Bears.  They have a negative scoring margin for the season.  And NFL teams with negative scoring margins are a horrid 1-19 ATS their last 20 on the road, when favored by 7+ points, at Game 6 forward, vs. an opponent not off a win.  Take the Jaguars + the points.