At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots over the total.  The Patriots come into this game off 3 straight unders.  But the Pats have gone OVER the total 65% since 2010 if they were off 3+ unders.  Even better:  the Vikings were blown out last week by Dallas, 40-3.  But Minnesota has gone OVER the total 15 of 18 off a loss, including 7 straight off a double-digit loss.  Finally, the Over falls into two of my favorite Totals systems with records of 114-79 and 53-28.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over the Washington Commanders.  The Commanders upset the then-undefeated Philadelphia Eagles last week, 33-21, and are now 5-5 on the season.  But off that huge upset win, we'll fade Washington on the road against Houston.  Indeed, since 1980, NFL road favorites of less than 6 points (or PK) have covered just 29.6% off an upset win on Monday Night Football.  Even better:  Houston's 16-7 ATS at home off back to back losses, when not favored by more than 7 pionts vs. a foe off a win.  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Atlanta Falcons.  The Falcons are 6-4 ATS this season, but all six of their ATS wins have come when they were an underdog.  Today, Atlanta is favored.  And the Falcons have been horrible as a favorite, as they’re 28-50 ATS including 6-23 ATS as a home favorite when laying 3.5 or less points.  Take Chicago + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the New York Jets.  When we last saw the Jets, they were upsetting the Buffalo Bills as a 10.5-point road underdog.  We'll fade the Flyboys off that upset win, as winning NFL teams have cashed just 33% on the road since 1980 off a win as an underdog of more than 10 points.  Take New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Chicago Bears/Atlanta Falcons game.  Nine of the last 11 meetings between these clubs have gone UNDER the total, and we'll look for this game to follow suit.  It's true that the Bears come into this game off 4 straight Overs.  But NFL teams off 4+ Overs tend to go UNDER the total in their next game, and especially when the line was > 46 points.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Tennessee.  We played on the Packers last Sunday as our NFC Game of the Month, and were rewarded with an upset win over the Dallas Cowboys in overtime.  We'll come right back with Green Bay tonight, as it's 64-41 ATS with Aaron Rodgers under center, as a favorite of less than 13 points vs. a foe not off an ATS loss.  Even better:  with Rodgers, Green Bay is an awesome 30-11-2 ATS at home vs. a foe off a SU/ATS win.  And, finally, the Packers are 11-3-1 ATS in Thursday games with Rodgers, including a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. a foe off a win.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers + the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  We played on the Packers as a big underdog vs. Buffalo, and got the $$$$ with Aaron Rodgers & Co.  Unfortunately for Green Bay, it faltered last week as a favorite in the Motor City against the Lions.  Now, Green Bay has been installed as a home underdog, and we'll once again take the points with Green Bay.  Indeed, the Packers are 70-41-4 ATS in Aaron Rodgers' home starts, including 5-1-1 ATS as an underdog!  And they're 8-1 ATS (whether home or away) as an underdog off an upset loss.  Green Bay also falls into 306-202, 372-274 and 195-101 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams against superior opponents.  Finally, Dallas has covered just 33% since 1980 as a road favorite off a SU win, if they were matched up against a foe off an upset loss.  Grab the points with the Packers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears minus the points over the Detroit Lions.  The Bears come into this game off back to back losses to Dallas and Miami, while Detroit upset the Packers last week.  The good news for Justin Fields & Co. is that Chicago is 44-22 ATS at home off 2 or more losses, if the Bears weren’t favored by 3.5 (or more) points, including 23-6 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win.  Take Chicago minus the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over New York.  After pulling upset wins in five of their first seven games, the Giants finally came back down to Earth in their last game, and were blown out by the Seattle Seahawks.  This game against Houston will be the first time this season that the Giants are favored by more than a field goal in almost 2 years!  I hate laying a lot of points with teams that are unaccustomed to doing so.  And the Giants are a horrible 4-16 ATS at home when they owned a winning record, and were favored by more than a field goal (compared to 11-1-1 ATS their last 12 at home when NOT favored by more than 3 points).  Take Houston + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Tennessee Titans.  Last week, the Broncos had their bye week following their upset win against Jacksonville, 21-17.  Denver has historically been terrific in the regular season off its bye week, as it's 25-7 ATS, including 12-1 ATS when not laying more than 3 points.  Last Sunday night, the Titans almost pulled off a big upset at Kansas City, as a 14-point underdog, but ended up losing by 3 points, 20-17.  It's true that the Titans covered the spread for the 6th straight game last week.  But unrested NFL favorites, off 6 (or more) ATS wins, are a soft 56-71-2 ATS since 1980, including 6-15 ATS if they scored less than 20 points in their previous game.  Take Denver + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers over the New Orleans Saints.  The Steelers come into this game off a 22-point blowout loss at Philadelphia.  But the good news for Pittsburgh is that it has been dominant at home in the regular season in matchups between non-winning teams, if Pittsburgh was off a point spread loss, as it's gone 38-13 ATS, including 19-0 ATS if it lost its previous game by 18+ points.  Take the Steelers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + Detroit Lions to go UNDER the total.  Detroit's first four games this season were extremely high scoring, as they averaged 70.25 ppg.  But its last four games have seen a precipitous drop-off in points, as they've averaged a mere 35.25 ppg -- which is 50.1% of the number of points scored in the first four games.  Last week, Detroit played its lowest-scoring game yet, as it defeated Aaron Rodgers & the Packers, 15-9.  I look for this game to be relatively-low scoring as well.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over Minnesota.  QB Josh Allen has been upgraded to 'probable,' which is all I needed to pull the trigger on Buffalo this afternoon.  The Bills suffered an upset loss at the hands of the Jets last week.  But the Bills are 16-4 ATS at home off a SU/ATS loss, if they’re playing a non-division opponent off a SU win.  And they're 11-0-1 ATS vs. foes off a SU win, if the Bills owned a .600 (or better) win percentage, and were off back to back ATS losses.  Lay the points with Buffalo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 am, in a game played in Munich, Germany, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over Seattle.  The Bucs won last week, 16-13, vs. the LA Rams, but pushed against the spread.  And they have not covered since Week 2 vs. New Orleans.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks are 4-0 SU/ATS their last four.  I'll lay the points with Tampa, as teams off back to back wins have covered just 22% of NFL games played overseas (vs. foes not off back to back wins).  That doesn't bode well for Seattle.  Even worse, teams off 3 (or more) SU/ATS wins have covered just 27% vs. foes on a 6-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Lay the points with Tom Brady & Co.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Atlanta Falcons.  These two NFC South division rivals went to overtime two weeks ago, and the Falcons prevailed, 37-34.  We'll take the Panthers in this rematch, as revenge-minded home teams have cashed 67.3% since 1980 if the two teams previously met within the last 2 games, and the home team wasn't favored by 2+ points.  Even better:  the Panthers are 11-1 ATS at home off a loss by 16+ points, if their current opponent wasn't a winning team.  Take Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons to go UNDER the total.  A couple of weeks ago these two teams met, and Atlanta survived to win, 37-34, in overtime.  We'll take the UNDER in this contest, as competitively-priced NFC South division games, with point spreads < 3 points, have gone under 68% if the O/U line ranged from 42 to 53 points.  Additionally, Carolina has gone UNDER 32-8 at home vs. division foes when not getting 3+ points.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Tennessee.  The Chiefs had last week off after blowing out San Francisco, 44-23.  In coach Andy Reid's career, his teams are 22-12 ATS when playing with rest.  They'll welcome a Titans team which has won each of its last 5 games.  Unfortunately, underdogs of +6 (or more) points, off 4+ wins, have covered just 34.2% the past 15 seasons.  Take the Chiefs minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Arizona/Seattle game.  The Seahawks blew out the New York Giants last week, and will travel to Phoenix to take on the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.  Arizona has given up 34 points each of its last two games and, not surprisingly, both went over the total.  Seattle has gone OVER 81-46-1 after winning at home in its previous game and we'll look for another high-scoring game here.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over Atlanta.  The Falcons outlasted the Panthers last week, in overtime, 37-34, while the Chargers had last week off following an upset home loss, 37-23, to the Seahawks.  We'll fade Atlanta in this game, as the Falcons are 0-12 ATS as a home dog off a home win, if matched up against a winning foe.  Additionally, rested, single digit road favorites off a loss have cashed 77% since 1980 vs. non-division foes.  Finally, the Chargers are a super 50-27 ATS off an upset loss, including 14-0-1 ATS their last 15 when they lost by > 11 points in their previous game.  Lay the points with the Chargers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers + the points over Buffalo.  Green Bay lost as a road favorite at Washington to fall to 3-4 on the season.  And they've now been installed as a huge underdog at Buffalo.  This is the first time in Rodgers' career that he's been under center when the Packers were getting 9+ points.  But he's 5-2 ATS when getting more than 6 points.  And Green Bay is a super 7-1 ATS with Rodgers as an underdog off an upset loss.  And it's 5-0 ATS with Rodgers off 3 ATS losses, if Green Bay wasn't favored by more than 1 point.  Those stats bode well for Green Bay.  As does the fact that .375 (or better) NFL teams have cashed 66.1% as an underdog of more than 6 points off an upset road loss.  Take the Packers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over the Chicago Bears.  Last Monday, Chicago upset New England as an 8.5-point road underdog.  Unfortunately for the Bears, road dogs of +8 (or more) points, off an upset win as an 8-point (or greater) underdog, have covered the spread in just 33% of their games since 1980.  Dallas is 12-7 ATS vs. foes off an upset win, including a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS when favored by 4+ points.  Meanwhile, Chicago is a wallet-breaking 14-23 ATS off an upset win, including 2-9 ATS when getting 4+ points.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Detroit/Miami game.  After starting the season with four extremely high scoring games, the Lions have played back to back low scoring games.  But those two games were on the road against Dallas and New England -- teams that play good defense.  Today, Detroit is back at home, and it's gone OVER in 20 of 28 home games following a SU loss in a game which went under the total.  Even better:  Detroit is scoring 38.67 ppg at home, by itself.  And its home games have averaged 76.33 ppg!  Combine that with the fact that Miami's road games have averaged 59.67 ppg, and we have all the ammunition we need to take the OVER in this game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the New York Jets.  New York had a bittersweet victory last week in Denver.  Yes, the Jets prevailed in a tough, defensive game, 16-9.  But they lost RB Breece Hall for the season when he sustained a torn ACL.  To make up for Hall's absence, the Jets traded for Jaguars' RB James Robinson.  Meanwhile, the Patriots were shellacked, 33-14, Monday night, in an upset loss at the hands of the Chicago Bears.  But off that upset loss, we'll lay the points with Bill Belichick's men today.  For technical support, consider that New England is an awesome 21-0-1 ATS on the road in the regular season off a loss, if matched up against a foe off a win.  That bodes well for the Patriots today.  As does the fact that the Jets are a horrid 41-66-4 ATS at home vs. .500 (or worse) opponents.  Finally, the Pats have won 12 straight in this AFC East division series (8-4 ATS).  Take New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Baltimore Ravens.  The Bucs will surely be happy to be home on this Thursday, as they were blown out on the road last week by Carolina.  And they also suffered an upset road loss two weeks ago, at Pittsburgh.  The good news for Tampa tonight is that home teams have covered 65.2% over the last 43 seasons off back to back upset road defeats.  Additionally, Tom Brady's teams have gone 25-1 ATS in the regular season off a loss, if they weren't favored by 7+ points, and their opponent was off a straight-up win.  Take the Buccaneers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the New York Jets.  Russell Wilson won't be on the field today vs. the Jets, as he's out with a hamstring injury.  QB Brett Rypien will instead be under center for the Broncos.  But Wilson was the 25th-ranked quarterback through the first six weeks, so his absence won't be devastating to the Broncos.  We'll take Denver, as it's a stellar 52-19-3 ATS at home, priced from +4.5 to -2 points, including 10-0 ATS if it was off a division loss in its previous game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the points over New York.  The Jaguars come into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses, but have been installed as a home favorite vs. New York.  The Giants are headed in the opposite direction, as they're 5-1 SU/ATS after their 2nd straight upset win -- a 24-20 victory over Baltimore.   But off those two upsets, we'll fade New York at Jacksonville on Sunday.  Indeed, winning teams off back-to-back upset wins have covered just 39.2% on the road vs. losing teams over the last 40+ years.  And the Giants are a poor 4-8 ATS off back to back upset wins vs. a foe off a SU loss.  Finally, over the last 40+ years, NFL teams off 3 SU/ATS losses have covered 69.5% vs. foes off 3 SU/ATS wins if our play-on team (here, Jacksonville), was not getting more than 4 points.  Lay the points with the Jaguars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Dallas.  Dak Prescott will make his return this afternoon for the Cowboys, but we'll still go against them this afternoon.  Detroit had last week off following a shutout loss, 29-0, at the hands of New England.  The Lions are now 1-4, but rested underdogs of +6 (or more) points, with a win percentage < .333, have covered 64.5% over the past 43 years.  And Detroit has gone 16-0-1 ATS after losing by more than 26 points in their previous game, if they were installed as an underdog of 6+ points in their current game.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  The Ravens have not covered the spread in any of their three previous games, and are 1-8 ATS when favored by more than 3 points, dating back to last season.  This afternoon, they'll welcome division rival, Cleveland, to M&T Bank Stadium.  We'll grab the points with the Browns, as AFC North division teams have covered 64.8% if they were getting 6+ points against a division foe not off a SU/ATS win.  Additionally, the road team has gone 27-18-1 ATS in this rivalry, including 5-0 ATS vs. a foe off an upset loss.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over New Orleans.  The Saints are 2-4 SU/ATS this season, and have been outscored by 2.83 ppg, and have failed to cover the spread by an average of 3.33 ppg.  This will be New Orleans' 3rd road game of the season, and it's 0-2 ATS in the first two, with ATS losses to the Falcons and Panthers.  The Cardinals are also 2-4 straight-up, after being upset last week by the Seattle Seahawks.  And that was Arizona's 2nd straight defeat, as it also fell to the 6-0 Philadelphia Eagles, 20-17, two weeks ago.  But off those two losses, we'll step in and take Kliff Kingsbury's men on Thursday night.  For technical support, consider that the Cardinals are a sensational 36-13 ATS at home off back to back losses, if its opponent had a negative scoring margin.  Take Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Broncos are offensively-challenged.  They scored just nine points in last week's 12-9 loss to the Indianapolis Colts, and are averaging just 15.0 ppg this season.  In contrast, the Chargers enter tonight's game with a 24.4 ppg offensive average, and have tallied 34 and 30 points the past two weeks.  This vast offensive difference (LA is 9.4 ppg better) will keep a lot of gamblers off Denver, but not me.  Indeed, at Game 6 forward, NFL road teams that average 15 (or less) points per game, and at least 9.4 ppg less than their opponent, have gone 119-78-5 ATS, including 65-35-4 ATS if their opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  And if it's a division game, then our 65-35-4 stat zooms to 28-9-1 ATS.  That bodes well for Denver in this game.  As does the fact that AFC West division teams with a losing record have gone 141-83 ATS on the road vs. division rivals, if our road team was not favored by more than 3 points.  Finally, Denver is an awesome 11-0 ATS following games it failed to score 13+ points, if it was an underdog of 4+ points in the current game, and its opponent was off a win.  Take the Broncos.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  The Eagles had a winning record last season, yet lost both games to Dallas, 51-26 and 41-21.  But Philly now falls into several double-revenge systems of mine that have records of 53-28, 72-51 and 43-23 ATS.  Additionally, dating back to 1989, undefeated teams (like Philly) have cashed 63.7% at home off a point spread loss if they weren’t favored by 9+ points in their current game.  Take the Eagles minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs + the points over Buffalo.  The Bills blew out Pittsburgh last week, 38-3, to move to 4-1 this season.  KC is also 4-1 after outlasting the Raiders, 30-29.  The Chiefs are a super 23-9 their last 32 games, and are 10-1 SU their last 11 at home.  Yet they've been installed as a home underdog vs. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.  We'll grab the points with the Chiefs, as NFL teams that have won at least 23 of their previous 32 games, have gone 20-8 ATS when not laying more than 1 point, including a perfect 9-0 ATS if their opponent was off a win by 17+ points.  Take KC.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Arizona/Seattle game.  The Cardinals have reeled off four straight Unders after last week's 20-17 loss to the Eagles went under the total by 10.5 points.  And Arizona is also 15-4-1 UNDER on the road the past 3 seasons, including 8-0 Under when priced from -7 to +2.5 points.  It's true that Seattle surrendered 39 points to the Saints last week, and 45 to Detroit two games back.  But the Seahawks have gone under 7 of 8 after allowing 28+ points in their two previous games.  And competitively-priced NFC West division games, with point spreads of 3 points or less, have gone Under 45-18-3.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Los Angeles Rams/Carolina Panthers game.  After playing two of the NFL's best defenses the past two week (49ers, Cowboys), the Rams will be ecstatic to go up against a Panthers defense which has allowed 37 and 26 points its two previous games.  Los Angeles has gone Over the total 60.3% off three straight unders.  Meanwhile, the Panthers are 40-22 Over as road underdogs, including 11-0 Over when the OU Line was between 40 and 42.5 points.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Seattle.  The Seahawks' defense is giving up 30.8 ppg, which is the 2nd-worst in the NFL.  They’ve been installed as a home dog this Sunday.  But NFL home underdogs of +2 (or more) points have covered just 40.3%, at Game 5 forward, if they were giving up more than 30 points.  Take Arizona minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over the New York Jets.  The Flyboys pulled off their 2nd straight upset last week when they blew out division rival, Miami, 40-17.  And they went into Pittsburgh the previous week and upset the Steelers, 24-20.  Now, they'll try to make it three-upsets-in-a-row when they travel to Lambeau Field to take on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.  Unfortunately for New York, Green Bay's coming into this game off an upset loss to the New York Giants, 27-22, in London.  Green Bay's 24-11 ATS with Rodgers under center off an upset loss, including 5-1 ATS vs. a foe off an upset win.  Lay the points with the Packers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Cincinnati/New Orleans game.  Last week, the Saints scored 39 points in a 39-32 victory over Seattle.  And their game went over the total by 26 points.  We'll look for another high-scoring game on Sunday, as the Saints are 13-5 Over the total if they went Over their previous game.  And they're 58-42 Over as home underdogs.  Take the Over.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Indianapolis/Jacksonville game.  The first meeting this season was a low-scoring game, as the Jaguars won 24-0.  And that was the 4th straight meeting between these two division rivals that went under the total.  Also, each of these teams went under the total last week.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here.  But I'll take the Over, as NFL division games have gone Over the total 55% of the time if both teams went Under their previous game; the season's previous meeting went Under, as well as the teams' last 3 meetings overall.  Take the Over.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over Tampa Bay.  The Steelers were blown out by 35 points last week in Kenny Pickett's first start, which wasn't wholly unexpected.  But off that debacle, I'll grab the points with the Men of Steel, as NFL teams that scored less than 7 points, and lost by 35+ points have covered 63.9% since 1990.  Take Pittsburgh.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over New Orleans.  Cincinnati lost on the road last week to Baltimore, and it's back on the road this week.  It's been installed as a road favorite vs. the Saints, who won last week, 39-32, vs. Seattle.  The good news for Joe Burrow & Co. is that road favorites are 65.2% ATS off a road loss, if matched up against a foe off a win.  Take Cincinnati.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders over the Chicago Bears.  Washington has lost its last four games, including a heartbreaking 21-17 defeat last week vs. Tennessee.  The Commanders had the ball first-and-goal on the Titans' 1-yard line, with less than a half-minute to go in the game.  But they couldn't get the ball into the end zone and the game ended with an interception on the 3rd down play.  The Bears also lost last week to the Vikings, 29-22, but covered the 8.5-point spread.  We'll take Washington in this match-up, as road teams have covered the spread 62% since 2005 if they were off back to back losses, not getting more than 3 points, and were playing a non-division foe off an ATS win.  Even better:  the Commanders are 9-0 ATS their last nine meetings vs. the Bears in Chicago.  Take Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over Dallas.  Last week, the Rams were throttled by the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football, 24-9.  And that continued coach Sean McVay's point spread failures following back-to-back wins, as the Rams are now 11-28 ATS in that situation.  But the Rams excel following a straight-up loss, as they're 14-6 SU and 13-6-1 ATS in those games.  Even better:  defending Super Bowl champs have covered 72% following a road game where they failed to cover the spread by more than 10 points.  And Dallas is 2-9 ATS as a road underdog of more than 4 points off back to back ATS wins.  Lay the points with Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the San Francisco/Carolina game.  Both of these teams have been playing low-scoring games this season.  San Francisco's 4 games have gone under the total by 11.87 ppg, while Carolina's 4 games have gone under by 1.62 ppg.  This game is a technical play for me, as it falls into Totals systems that have records of 101-51, 78-53, 71-43, 64-34 and 40-12.  Additionally, the Panthers are 8-2 OVER the total following 3+ Unders, while the Niners are 6-2 OVER after 3 straight games under.  Take the 49ers/Panthers Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over San Francisco.  The Niners played an emotional game last week when they took down the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, 24-9, in San Francisco.  Off that big divisional win, I expect a letdown in this non-division road game.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL road favorites have covered just 37% vs. non-division foes off a SU/ATS loss, if our road favorite was off a Monday Night divisional contest.  Take Carolina + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs minus the points over the Atlanta Falcons.  The Falcons come into this game with a 4-0 ATS record, and have won their last 2 straight up as underdogs vs. the Browns and Seahawks.  They're also covering the spread by an average of 5.12 ppg (Tampa's covering by just 1.37 ppg).  Unfortunately for the Falcons, Tom Brady's teams have gone 19-0 ATS off a straight-up loss, if they owned a worse point spread differential than their opponent, and their opponent was off back to back wins!  Take Tampa Bay minus the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Tennessee/Washington game.  The Commanders had trouble scoring in their last two games but they faced two tough defenses in Philadelphia and Dallas.  The Eagles are giving up just 17.5 ppg, while Dallas is surrendering just 15.5 ppg.  But the Titans are giving up 25.25 ppg, so I expect Carson Wentz & Co. to do much better on offense.  The Titans are 4-0 Over their last 4 (and 9-2 Over their last 11) as road favorites.  Take the Titans/Commanders game Over the total.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over Seattle.  The Seahawks won a thriller in Detroit last week, 48-45, and are an underdog at New Orleans this Sunday.  We’ll lay the points, as favorites have covered 64.3% since 1980 if their opponent was off an upset win, and scored 48+ points the previous week.  Additionally, the Saints are 10-0 ATS when favored in non-division games, if they were off a loss, owned a losing record, and their opponent was off a win.  Lay the points with the Saints.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over Tennessee.  Last week, the Titans upset the Indianapolis Colts, 24-17, as a 4-point road underdog, to move their record to 2-2 SU/ATS this season.  Washington is 1-3 SU/ATS after dropping a 25-10 decision to rival Dallas on the road.  We'll fade the Titans, as they're 0-9-1 ATS in non-division games following an upset win, if matched up against an opponent off a SU loss.  And Washington is a solid 37-21 ATS as an underdog of +10 (or less) points when playing a non-division foe off back to back wins.  Take Washington + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over the Carolina Panthers.  The Cardinals made the playoffs last season, but one of their not-so-good games came at the hands of the Panthers, who blew them out, 34-10, as a 7-point road underdog.  And, improbably, that was the sixth straight double-digit win (including 3 straight upsets) by Carolina over Arizona in this series.  The Cardinals have surely gotten off to a worrisome 1-2 start this year.  They know they can’t fall to 1-3 as that might be too deep of a hole from which to dig out.  Part of the reason Arizona is 1-2 is that it was saddled with a difficult opening schedule.  Indeed, its first 3 opponents (Chiefs, Raiders, Rams) also made the Playoffs last season.  But this week's opponent -- Carolina -- was just 5-12 last season, so it's a step-down in class for Arizona.  For technical support, consider that NFL underdogs with a losing record, that made the Playoffs the previous season, have gone 19-2 ATS in Week 4, if they were playing another losing team.  Take the Cardinals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over Houston.  The Chargers were upset at home by the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, 38-10.  But off that upset loss, I’ll look for Los Angeles to rebound here, as road favorites off 17-point (or worse) upset losses have covered 72% since 1998.  Even better:  the Chargers are 49-29-6 ATS off an upset loss.  And they're also 27-6-2 ATS on the road following a game where they scored less than 14 points, provided they weren't getting more than 10 in the current game.  Lay the points with the Chargers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars OVER the total.  The Jaguars are giving up just 12.66 ppg, and outscoring their foes by 15.33 ppg, while Philly is surrendering just 16.66 ppg, and outscoring its foes by 12 ppg.  I think this will be a high scoring affair.  At Game 4 forward, when you get a team (like Jacksonville) holding its opponents to 13 or less points per game, its games have gone Over the total 60.1% since 1980 if the Line was greater than 41 points.  And in matchups between two teams with scoring margins > 7 ppg, those games have gone Over the total 57% since 1980 when the line was greater than 43 points.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  Washington opened its season with a nice win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but lost to Detroit and Philly in Weeks 2 + 3.  In contrast, the Cowboys opened their season with a loss to Tampa, but rebounded in Weeks 2 + 3 with back to back upset wins, including a 23-16 victory at the New York Giants this past Monday.  Unfortunately for Dallas, NFL teams off a division upset win (and back to back upset wins, overall) have covered just 22% the past 43 seasons vs. division foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  That doesn't bode well for the Cowboys this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that this has been an underdog-oriented rivalry, with the dog going 50-26-1 ATS in the last 77 meetings.  Grab the points with Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Miami.  Last week, in a battle of undefeated, 2-0 teams, Miami bested Buffalo, 21-19, as a 4.5-point home underdog.  But after toppling the Bills from the ranks of the unbeatens, we'll fade Miami on the road tonight.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, at Game 4 forward, .500 (or better) NFL road dogs have cashed just 32.6% after knocking off an undefeated team, provided they weren't favored by 3+ points in that previous game.  And Miami is a miserable 11-31 ATS off an upset win over a division rival.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over the New York Jets.  Last year, the Bengals reached the Super Bowl.  This season, they've not yet found similar success.  Indeed, Cincy is 0-2 SU/ATS after its first two games.  But I love the Bengals to bounce back on Sunday.  Since 1980, NFL teams that made the playoffs the previous season have cashed 60% in Game 3 after starting the season winless SU/ATS.  That bodes well for the Bengals here.  As does the fact that the Jets are a horrid 66-116-6 ATS at home vs. foes that don’t have a winning record, including 13-32 ATS vs. foes off an upset loss.  Lay the points with the Bengals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over Kansas City.  The Colts were shut out, 24-0, by the Jaguars last Sunday.  However, off that embarrassing defeat, we'll take Indy as a big home underdog against the Chiefs.  The Colts are a solid 48-23 ATS off a straight-up loss, while KC has covered just 38 of 93 games as a favorite vs. foes off back to back losses.  And since 1980, NFL teams, like Indianapolis, that scored less than 6 points in an upset loss have gone 104-74-4 ATS in their subsequent game.  Take the home underdog Colts.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over the Chicago Bears.  Last week, we played on the Minnesota Vikings against Green Bay, and were rewarded with a 23-7 blowout win.  But off that loss, we'll take Aaron Rodgers & Co. to bounce back on Sunday.  And when they're playing the Bears, they generally do bounce back off losses.  Indeed, Green Bay is 19-1-1 ATS its last 21 (including 13-0 ATS its last 13) vs. Chicago if Green Bay failed to cover the spread in its previous game.  And with Aaron Rodgers under center, the Packers are a solid 63-37-3 ATS when not favored by 13 points against an opponent NOT off an ATS loss.  Take Green Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over Las Vegas.  The Cardinals were blown out by Kansas City, 44-21, in Week 1, while Las Vegas lost to the Chargers.  We'll look for Arizona to rebound on Sunday, as underdogs off a double-digit loss in Week 1 have covered 69.4% since 1991 if they owned a winning record the previous season.  Moreover, the Raiders are an atrocious 25-52-1 ATS as a favorite, including 0-9 ATS their last nine.  Grab the points with Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our NFC West Division Game of the Year is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Seattle.  The Niners were surprised by the Chicago Bears in Week 1, as they lost, 19-10, as a 7-point road favorite.  Meanwhile, Seattle upset Denver, 17-16, on Monday night.  We'll take the 49ers to bounce back strong on Sunday afternoon, as they're a spectacular 67-28 ATS off an upset loss as a 3-point (or greater) favorite.  Moreover, in week 2, NFL teams off a road loss in Week 1, that made the playoffs the previous year, have covered 68% since 1980 against foes off an upset win to start the season.  Finally, the Seahawks are a poor 6-16-1 ATS in their road openers.  Take San Francisco minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Tampa Bay.  Last week, the Buccaneers played the Cowboys in a match-up of two Playoff teams from the previous season.  Tampa emerged victorious, 19-3, and now travels to play the Saints, who also won its season opener.  We'll fade Tampa Bay, as road favorites have only covered 33% since 1980 in Week 2, if they won SU/ATS in Week 1 against a team that made the playoffs the previous season.  New Orleans is 17-5 SU and 14-8 ATS its last 22 games vs. Tampa Bay, including 2-0 last year, and 7-1 SU/ATS since Dec. 2018.  Take the Saints + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Bill Belichick's men were blown out, 20-7, by Miami in Week 1, while Pittsburgh upended Cincy, 23-20, in overtime.  But with New England off that loss, we'll lay the short number vs. the Steelers.  For technical support, consider that New England is 23-8 ATS its last 31 (and 10-0 SU/ATS its last 10) non-division games when not favored by 3+ points, if it was off a SU loss, and its foe was off a SU win.  Take the Patriots.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the New York Giants.  New York won a thriller last week when it scored a touchdown and two-point conversion to stun the Titans (who owned the AFC's #1 record last season), 21-20.  Unfortunately, Game 2 favorites, that defeated a Playoff team from the previous season in its opener, have covered just 42% against foes off a SU loss.  I look for New York to suffer a letdown on this Sunday.  Take Carolina + the points.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Patrick Mahomes & Co. racked up 44 points last week in a 23-point blowout win over the Arizona Cardinals.  But off that offensive explosion, we will fade KC at home tonight.  Indeed, NFL home teams off a win by more than 20 points to start the season are an awful 1-13-1 ATS.  And the Chargers are 30-14-5 ATS on the road vs. division foes not off a loss.  Grab the points with Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings + the points over the Green Bay Packers.  These two teams split the season series, 1 game apiece.  Minnesota won, 34-31, at home, but Green Bay blew out the Vikings at Lambeau Field, 37-10, in the next-to-last game of the season.  However, QB Kirk Cousins didn’t play in that game due to COVID-19, so Green Bay was installed as a 13-point home favorite, and coasted to an easy win.  After last year's home win, the Vikings have now gone 11-6 ATS as a home dog/pk vs. Green Bay.  And NFC North Division home dogs, as a whole, have gone 91-70-3 ATS in division games.  Finally, in Game 1 divisional matchups between two teams that won at least 8 games the previous season, home dogs have cashed 71% since 1981.  Grab the points with the Vikings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  The Bengals continue to step up against the league's best teams.  They're now 9-1 SU/ATS vs. winning opponents!  And that includes impressive upset wins over the Chiefs (twice), Titans and Ravens (with Lamar Jackson).  In contrast, the Rams are 4-6 ATS this season vs. winning opponents, including a horrid 1-6 ATS as a favorite!  And they're 6-12 ATS when laying more than 3 points, and 11-26 ATS off back to back wins under Sean McVay (including 5-19 ATS when the line was 7 or less points).  It's true that the Rams will be playing this game at their home stadium, but home teams are a soft 17-25 in the Playoffs since 2018 when favored by 3+ points.  Take the points with the Bengals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams OVER the total.  The Rams held Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers in check in the NFC Conference Championship game, which finished 20-17, and went under the total of 45.5 points by 8.5 points.  But the Rams have tended to go OVER the total when facing the better NFL teams, as they're 10-4 OVER when playing an opponent which averages more than 26.75 ppg, and 7-1 OVER when playing an opponent with a .650 (or better) win percentage.  Additionally, the Rams are now 5-0 OVER following an under in their previous game.  Even better:  NFL teams have gone OVER 67-42 in the Playoffs following a game it went under by more than 8 points, if such Playoff game had a line greater than 42 points.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers over the total.  These two teams met earlier this month, and the Niners upset the Rams here, in Los Angeles, to punch their ticket to the Playoffs.  That regular season game went OVER the total.  And we'll look for a similar result on Sunday, as the NFC Championship games have been extremely high scoring, for the most part, with the OVER cashing 21-7-2 since 1992, including 10-0 OVER if the line ranged from 45 to 54 points.  Even better, in the Playoffs, when the home favorite was playing with revenge from an upset loss earlier in the season, those games have gone OVER 24-11.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs OVER the total.  These two teams met just four weeks ago, and they played a high-scoring game, won by the Bengals, 34-31.  That game sailed over the total of 51 by 14 points.  We'll look for another high-scoring game on Sunday at Arrowhead, as playoff rematches of games that went over, also tend to go over the total, and especially if the O/U line is 50+ points, as those games have gone over 65% since 1990.  Kansas City has now played its last 7 games OVER the total, and is also 6-0 OVER with Patrick Mahomes at QB and playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Kansas City.  This is the 2nd match-up this season here, at Arrowhead Stadium, between these two teams, and the Bills won Round 1 by 18 points, 38-20.  My numbers rate the Bills as the AFC's best team, so we will happily take Buffalo as an underdog in this match-up with the back-to-back AFC Conference champion Chiefs.  Indeed, the Bills fall into 81-19, 123-58 and 93-52 ATS systems of mine based on their statistical profile, and also 28-9 and 37-19 ATS Playoff systems, based on this particular game's situation.  It's true that the Chiefs do enter this game on an impressive run, which has seen them win 10 of 11 straight-up, and cover seven of their last nine.  But the Bills are 20-5-2 ATS on the road vs. foes with a .500 SU/ATS record, including a perfect 5-0 ATS when the point spread was less than 3 points.  Admittedly, Kansas City does have one of the best NFL head coaches in Andy Reid.  But all of Reid's point spread profit (135-94 ATS) has been on the road and/or as an underdog.  When installed as a home favorite, Reid's team have gone just 82-83-4 ATS, including 2-14 ATS when priced as a revenge-minded home favorite of less than 4 points.  Last week's game vs. New England -- where Buffalo scored touchdowns on its first seven possessions (against a Patriots defense which was allowing just 17.82 ppg) -- put the league on notice about just how good this Bills team can be.  And this might be the last time in quite a while that we see Josh Allen & Co. priced as an underdog.  Take Buffalo + the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  We played on the Bucs here, at home, to end the regular season.  Tampa was a big home favorite vs. Carolina in that game, and in my analysis, I pointed out how the Buccaneers had played much worse on the road this season than at home.  And that's generally to be expected with defending Super Bowl champions, as they tend to mightily struggle on the road.  And these home/road splits carry forward into the Playoffs for defending Super Bowl champs, as they've gone 16-12-1 ATS at home, but just 7-9 ATS on the road.  The good news for the Bucs is this Playoff game is at home.  And Tampa's gone 7-2 ATS at home this season, and has covered the spread in those nine home games by a super 6.11 ppg.  In contrast, the Bucs were 3-6 ATS away from home (including a 34-24 upset loss to these Rams), and failed to cover the spread by -4.33 ppg (for a +10.44 relative home/road point spread differential).  Meanwhile, the Rams also performed better at home this season than on the road, and they failed to cover the spread away from home by -0.33 ppg.  None of this bodes well for Los Angeles in this road game.  And nor does the fact that Tom Brady's teams have gone 17-8 ATS in his career when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including 9-1 ATS if they lost that earlier game by 10+ points.  Take Tampa Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over the San Francisco 49ers.  With Aaron Rodgers as its starting quarterback, Green Bay has gone 131-90-5 ATS.  And while those numbers are certainly impressive, they get even better when one looks at how the Packers have done with Rodgers vs. WINNING opponents, when Green Bay was priced from -4 to -8 points.  In this situation, in Rodgers' career, he's led Green Bay to a 20-1 SU record, and 17-3-1 ATS!  The one straight-up loss was against Dak Prescott's Cowboys, on October 16, 2016.  And since that game, Green Bay's gone 10-0 SU/ATS when priced from -4 to -8 vs. winning opposition.  The Packers did lose their last regular season game, at Detroit, as a 3-point road favorite.  But Green Bay is a powerful 8-0 SU/ATS their last eight off an upset loss; and 35-14 ATS their last 49 off an upset road loss; and a perfect 4-0 ATS in the Playoffs off an upset loss.  Lay the points with the Packers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Los Angeles Rams/Arizona Cardinals game.  These two teams played high scoring games in the regular season, with each team scoring 30+ points in a road victory.  But this is the playoffs, not the regular season, and I expect a much better game today on the defensive side of the football.  And the Rams, especially, have tightened things up defensively following their mid-season three game losing streak.  Los Angeles gave up 28, 31 and 36 points in those defeats, and were being roundly criticized.  But since hitting that rock-bottom level, the Rams have gone 5-1, with their only loss coming in overtime.  And they have given up just 18.16 ppg in this stretch.  The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 9-1 UNDER on turf, and 11-3 UNDER off a SU loss.  Take the under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over San Francisco.  This is San Francisco's 2nd straight road game, as it played at Los Angeles last Sunday.  The 49ers upset the Rams, 27-24, in overtime for their second straight win, overall.  We'll go against San Francisco on Sunday, as NFL teams playing back to back road games, have covered just 25 of 73 playoff games if they were off an upset win, and not getting 8+ points in the current game.  Moreover, Dallas has covered the point spread by 7.06 ppg at home this season, while the 49ers have covered by just 1.44 ppg on the road.  And the Cowboys also own the better offensive and defensive scoring numbers, as they're 6.05 ppg better on offense, and 0.41 ppg better on defense.  For the season, Dallas has outscored its foes by 10.11 ppg.  And it's not often you get such a team in this price range, at home, in the playoffs.  But when you do, you should generally consider taking the home team, as they're 10-0 ATS in the Playoffs since 1980 when not laying 4+ points, when they've owned a scoring margin of 9.75 (or better).  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Las Vegas.  The Raiders come into this game off three straight upset wins, including a 35-32 overtime win at home last Sunday vs. the Chargers.  We'll fade Las Vegas on Saturday, as road teams have covered just 60 of 157 non-division game off back to back upset wins, including 3-12 ATS in the Playoffs.  And the Raiders are 1-13 ATS off an upset home win over a division rival.  Take Cincinnati minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over Carolina.  After ending last season on a 7-0 SU/ATS run to win the Super Bowl, and bringing back all their starters for this season, the expectation was that Tampa would win the NFC Conference, and compete with Kansas City for the league's best overall record.  But as we see time, and time again, defending Super Bowl champs don't always have great regular seasons.  And they surely don't have great seasons against the point spread.  The Buccaneers are 8-8 ATS this season and, like their defending champion predecessors, they struggled greatly as favorites on the road.  Tampa started out 2021 with five straight ATS defeats (including 0-4 ATS as a favorite) before finishing with a 3-1 ATS road mark (and 3-6 ATS overall).  But things were markedly better at home, where Tampa went 5-2 ATS.  This afternoon, the Bucs will look to bounce back off last week's poor game, where they failed to cover the spread by 10.5 points against the New York Jets.  The good news is that Tampa is back home to host the Carolina Panthers, who have lost  (both SU and ATS) six straight games.  And while it's true that teams on ATS losing streaks of 4+ games are essentially 50% plays toward the end of a season, they perform MUCH better at home than on the road.  And in the season's final week, they're especally BAD on the road, as they're 8-22-1 ATS, including 2-7 ATS if they were on a 5-game (or worse) losing streak.  We'll lay the points with Tampa Bay, as defending Super Bowl champs are a super 29-13 ATS after failing to cover the spread by 9+ points, if matched up against .375 (or worse) opposition.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Kansas City.  The Broncos will wind-up their season this afternoon in front of their home faithful.  And, although it's been a losing season, Denver's defense has played well, and has given up more than 23 points just four times this season.  That bodes well for them as a big underdog, as NFL teams that give up 21 or less points per game have gone 113-81 ATS in the regular season as an underdog of +10.5 (or more) points.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Minnesota.  We played on the Vikings in the first meeting, and got the $$$ when Minny upended Green Bay, 34-31, in a wild affair.  But this game should have not near that level of drama, as Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins has been sidelined.  Sean Mannion will replace Cousins, so that's a big reason for us to be pulling the trigger on Green Bay.  With Aaron Rodgers at QB, the Packers are a perfect 5-0 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, if they failed to cover the spread in their previous game.  And Green Bay is a virtually perfect 9-1 ATS when priced from -11.5 to -13 points with Rodgers, so that also bodes well for Matt LaFleur's men.  As does the fact that Green Bay is 38-13 ATS at home in the final four regular season games, if the Packers owned a win percentage greater than .625.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over New Orleans.  The Saints have scored a grand total of 12 points in their last two games combined.  Yet they're favored by more than 6 points this afternoon against a division rival which held them to 7 points in the first meeting.  Admittedly, Carolina is not a very good team right now, as it's lost five straight games (both SU and ATS).  But I still will happily take the points in this matchup.  Indeed, NFL teams off 5 SU/ATS losses have gone 103-68-3 ATS.  Moreover, New Orleans is a wallet-breaking 16-44-1 ATS at home vs. division foe off a loss.  And Carolina is 44-21 ATS as a road underdog vs. opponents that don't have a winning record.  Grab the points with the Panthers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Houston.  The Texans pulled off a massive upset last week, when they took down the Los Angeles Chargers, 41-29, as a 13-point underdog.  And that was Houston's 2nd straight upset victory, as it went into Jacksonville two weeks ago and surprised the Jaguars with a 30-16 triumph.  Generally, NFL teams are poor after winning a game as a 13-point (or greater) underdog, as they've gone 12-26 ATS their last 38.  And road teams off back to back upset wins are a soft 49-77-3 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes.  Take San Francisco minus the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers UNDER the total.  The Broncos come into this game off back to back unders, and they've also gone under in 12 of 15 games this season, including 6 of 7 road games.  Even better:  dating back 44 years, the Chargers have gone 'under' 81-34-1 at home vs. division rivals, including 18-5 'under' the past eight seasons, and 26-9 'under' when priced from 44 to 47.5 points.  This will be another low-scoring game.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Las Vegas.  The Raiders upset Denver at home last week.  Unfortunately, they're a poor 6-26 ATS off a home upset win, so that doesn't bode well for the Silver and Black today.  Also, this season, Indianapolis has been the best point spread team.  It ranks #1 (tied with New England) in average point spread differential (+6.40), but the Colts edge the Patriots' in ATS win percentage, as Indy is 10-5 ATS while New England is 9-6 ATS.  The Colts ATS percentage is tied (with Detroit) for 3rd, and only bettered by Green Bay (11-4 ATS) and Dallas (12-3 ATS).  I look for Indianapolis' success to continue this afternoon, especially since it received welcome news when QB Carson Wentz was upgraded to 'probable.'  Take the Colts.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Football Team to go UNDER the total.  These two teams played a mere two weeks ago.  Washington QB Taylor Heinicke missed that game, with Garrett Gilbert starting in his stead, and the over/under line was set at 39.5 points.  Heinicke is back for this game, so the over/under line has been adjusted higher.  But it's been adjusted a bit too much, very likely due to the two teams' most recent scores.  Philadelphia has played its last three games over the total, and has scored 33, 27 and 34 in its last three games.  Meanwhile, Washington gave up 27, 27 and 56 in its last three games.  But teams have gone 'under' the total in 11 of 15 games following a game in which they allowed 54+ points.  And the Eagles have played their last five UNDER following 3 overs (and 26 of their last 36 UNDER following 3 overs), including 14 of 17 UNDER it it was a division game.  Take Washington and Philly to go UNDER the total.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Seattle/Chicago game.  In its last game, the Seahawks managed to score just 10 points, in their 20-10 loss at Los Angeles.   But the Seahawks have gone OVER the total in 30 of 47 home games after scoring 10 or less points the previous week in a game which went under the total.  Additionally, this game falls into two totals systems of mine that are 96-52 and 38-16.  This will be a relatively-high scoring game.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills OVER the total.  The Patriots have gone 'over' the total in each of their last four home games, while Buffalo is 10-4-2 OVER the total its last 16 road games.  We'll look for a relatively-high scoring game on this Sunday afternoon, as the OVER falls into a 71-43 Totals system of mine.  Additionally, Buffalo was upset by New England in the season's first meeting, and scored just 10 points in that game.  And you would have to go back 55 games to find the last time Buffalo scored so few points in a home upset loss.  But NFL teams playing with revenge from an upset loss in which they scored 10 (or less) points tend to bounce back on offense in the season's next meeting, as 59% exceeded their offensive ppg average, and the OVER has cashed 66.1%.  Take the Bills and Patriots to go 'over' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Detroit.  We played on the Lions last week as our NFL Underdog Shocker of the Month, and easily got the $$$ as Detroit won outright, 30-12, as a 13-point home underdog.  But that was a perfect set-up for Detroit, as it was blown out by the Broncos the previous week.  And Detroit's now 5-0 ATS this season off a point spread defeat.  But it's also 55-83-4 ATS on the road off a SU win.  That doesn't bode well for the Lions on Sunday.  Nor does that fact that, at Game 7 forward, NFL teams with a .200 (or worse) W/L record have covered just 23.3% after beating the point spread by more than 7 points in their previous game.  These two teams met here last season, and Detroit upset the Falcons, 23-22.  But the Lions are an awful 7-19 ATS as an underdog of less than 8 points, if they were off a win, and playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars over the New York Jets.  Last week, the Jaguars lost at home to Houston, 30-16, which was their 6th straight loss and 5th straight ATS defeat.  We played on the OVER 39.5 in that game, so we were thrilled with the result.  This week, we'll take Jacksonville to finally break into the win column for the first time in seven weeks.  And our play is as much a play AGAINST New York, as it is a play ON Jacksonville.  Indeed, the Jets are a horrid 2-12 ATS their last 14 (and have covered just 65 of their last 186) at home vs. foe that didn't have a winning record!  And .333 (or worse) teams off 4 SU/ATS losses have gone 112-74 ATS.  Take Jacksonville.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over the Indianapolis Colts.  Last week, we cashed our NFL Game of the Month on the Colts, who snapped New England's 7-game win streak.  And we also cashed our NFL Underdog Shocker of the Month on the Lions against the Cardinals, when Detroit upset Arizona, as a 13-point underdog.  This week, we'll completely reverse course, and TAKE Arizona, and go AGAINST Indianapolis.  The Cardinals are a dominant 29-6-1 ATS at home when not laying 3+ points against a foe off a SU/ATS win, while Indy is 4-8 ATS as a road underdog off a win vs. foes off back to back losses.  And teams (like Indianapolis) off wins over foes that were on a 6-game (or better) win streak have gone 34-50 ATS in their next game when not laying 3+ points. 

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over Los Angeles.  The Rams come into this game off back to back wins over Jacksonville and Arizona.  And that victory over the Cardinals was an upset win as a 3-point road underdog.  The Rams have been very good since Sean McVay took over as head coach in 2017 when they have been off a loss (17-8 SU, 15-9 ATS), but awful when they've been off back to back wins (15-17 SU, 9-23 ATS), including 0-10 ATS their last 10 as a favorite off back-to-back wins.  That doesn't bode well for Los Angeles tonight.  Nor does the fact that the Seahawks will be playing with revenge from a 26-17 defeat to the Rams earlier this year.  And Seattle is 23-11 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including 12-2 ATS when catching 3+ points.  Finally, Seattle falls into a 76% ATS system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams against foes off wins.  Take the Seahawks + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings game.  Both teams come into this game off high-scoring affairs.  The Vikings tallied 36 last week in an 8-point win over Pittsburgh, while Chicago posted 30 in a 15-point loss at Green Bay.  And the aggregate points of each team's last two games, combined, have been 120 (Minnesota) and 130 (Chicago) points.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game tonight.  But NFL games have gone under the total 75% over the last 42 years if both teams' previous two games combined for 120+ points, with each game going 'over' the total, and each of the teams scored 28+ points in its previous game.  That bodes well for the 'under' tonight.  As does the fact that the Bears have gone 'under' the total in 23 of 33 division games when installed as a home underdog, including 12-0 UNDER when the line ranged from 42 to 48 points.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Arizona.  The Lions are 1-11-1, but they play extremely hard, and have covered the spread in eight of their 13 games, including four of their last five.  They were blown out, 38-10, by Denver last week, so that was one of the five instances they didn't cover the spread.  But, frankly, that was to be somewhat expected given that Detroit had actually won its first game of the season the previous week vs. Minnesota, while Denver was looking to redeem itself following its double-digit loss the previous week.  We had a play against Detroit last week, but we will switch gears and take it this afternoon.  Indeed, Detroit is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season off a point spread defeat (and also 4-0 ATS off a double-digit loss).  And it's 29-11 ATS as an underdog off a double-digit loss, when matched up against an opponent off a defeat.  Arizona does have the league's best record, at 10-3, but it did lose last week, at home, vs. the Rams.  Unfortunately, teams with exceptional W/L records have NOT bounced back off losses late in the regular season, as they've covered just 37.1% at Game 14 forward in the regular season.  And the league's worst teams -- with win percentages less than .150 -- have done great toward the end of the season, when installed as a home underdog vs. an opponent off a loss, as they've gone 35-20 ATS since 1980 at Game 12 forward.  Take Detroit + the double-digits.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans to go OVER the total.  The Jaguars fired Urban Meyer this week, and have named offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell as interim head coach.  Jacksonville's offense has been moribund of late, as it's scored just 64 points over its last seven games, including a shutout loss last week at Tennessee.  Not surprisingly, Jacksonville's last eight games have all gone 'under' the total.  But there is good reason to expect a different result this afternoon.  First and foremost, the over/under line is the lowest this season for a Jaguars game by 5 points (more than the 2nd lowest O/U line).  Indeed, four of Jacksonville's last eight games would have gone 'over' the total had the line been this low.  Additionally, NFL teams that scored less than 14 points in their previous game, and have gone 'under' the total six (or more) games in a row have gone OVER 65.1% since 1980 in games with lines less than 43 points.  I look for a relatively high scoring game this afternoon.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over New England.  Dating back to October 24, New England has ripped off seven straight wins and covers.  But only one of the seven teams it has defeated (Tennessee) has had a winning record in its games since October 24.  So, Indianapolis will represent a great challenge for New England, given that the Colts are 6-2 over their last eight games (and 7-3 ATS over their last 10).  Last week, the Colts accomplished an impressive feat, when it shut out the Texans on the road, 31-0.  And NFL teams off road shutout wins have gone 68-45-2 ATS since 1980.  Even better:  the Patriots had last week off following their big upset win at division rival, Buffalo.  But when a team is playing as well as New England, it can often be counter-productive in the regular season to have a week off.  Indeed, rested NFL underdogs off a division win (and 3 straight ATS wins overall) have gone 0-15 straight-up and 1-13-1 ATS in the regular season since 1980.  Take the Colts.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers Under the total.  These two AFC West division rivals both scored a lot of points in victory last week.  Kansas City tallied 48 at home vs. Las Vegas, while Los Angeles scored 37 at the New York Giants.  But we will look for a much lower scoring game at SoFi Stadium tonight.  Key Stat:  the Chargers have gone UNDER the total 81-33-1 at home vs. division rivals over the last 34 seasons, including 11-2 UNDER if the line was 49+ points; 30-8 UNDER if both went Over the total in their previous game; and 34-14 UNDER as an underdog.  This will be another low-scoring division game for Los Angeles.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals UNDER the total.  After giving up 28, 31 and 36 its three previous games, the Rams' defense surrendered just seven last week to the Jaguars.  And L.A.'s game went 'under' the total.  I look for another supreme effort by the Rams' stop unit on Monday, as it will be looking to redeem itself after giving up 37 points to the Cardinals when the two teams met in October.  The last three times the Rams gave up more than 28 points to a division foe in the season's first meeting, it rebounded to hold that foe to 10, 12, and 12 points in the rematch.  Seventeen of the last 27 meetings between these two NFC West division teams have gone 'under' the total, and we'll look for a relatively low scoring game on Monday.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos minus the points over Detroit.  After coming close to victory five times, the Lions finally broke through at their sixth opportunity when they scored on the final play to upend division rival, Minnesota, 29-27.  But off that emotional win, we will fade Detroit on the road this Sunday.  They'll have the tall task of facing a Broncos club which lost, 22-9, last week at Kansas City to fall to 6-6 on the season.  And Denver now sits one game behind 7th-seeded Buffalo for the final playoff berth in the bunched-up AFC Conference.  Towards the end of the season (Game 13 forward), it's been very profitable -- 64% -- to play on .500 (or better) teams at home off a loss, when matched up against losing opponents off an upset win.  Additionally, Denver's cashed 88% at home since 1980 off a loss by more than 7 points, if its opponent was off an upset win.  And road dogs have cashed just 37% off an upset division win at home, when matched up against a non-division foe off a SU/ATS loss.  Lay the points with Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers minus the points over Atlanta.  These two teams met in Atlanta on Halloween, and the Panthers were installed as a 2.5-point road underdog.  We played on Carolina in that game, and were rewarded with a 19-13 upset victory.  Carolina dominated the game, as it outyarded the Falcons, 332-213, had more first downs (21-17), and controlled time of possession (35:23 to 24:37).  For today's game, the Panthers will have an advantage of playing with an extra week of rest following its 33-10 upset loss at Miami two weeks ago.  And the Panthers are a super 20-8 ATS in division games off an upset loss.  Even better:  they're 27-9-1 ATS off a double-digit loss, if they weren't getting 3+ points in their current game.  Take Carolina minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Seattle.  The Texans come into this game off a horrible offensive performance, which saw them net just 84 rushing yards and 57 passing yards.  And they scored 0 points.  That was Houston's 2nd straight loss (both at home), so this game will conclude its 3-game home stand.  Over the last 42 years, NFL home teams have done exceedingly well off back to back home losses, as they've cashed 61 percent, including the last seven in a row.  And if our home team lost by more than 23 points in its previous game, then they've gone a perfect 9-0 ATS.  The Seahawks are not deserving to lay this many points on the road.  Seattle is 1-3 SU/ATS since QB Russell Wilson returned from injury, and averaged just 14.5 ppg in those four games.  Seattle has a negative 0.83 scoring margin for the season.  And at Game 5 forward, NFL teams with negative scoring margins of minus 0.25 (or worse) are a horrid 0-16 ATS as road favorites of -7 (or more) points when playing an opponent off a loss by 7+ points.  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Vikes lost their last two games to fall to 5-7 on the season, but each of those two was on the road.  Tonight, Minnesota is back home, and home favorites have gone 80-53 ATS in weekday games if they played their two previous games on the road.  Even better:  the Steelers upset their biggest rival (Baltimore) last Sunday, and are now 6-5-1 on the season.  Unfortunately, winning teams have cashed 0 of 8 as underdogs of less than 6 points in Thursday games, if they were matched up against a losing opponent.  Minnesota is also 12-0-1 ATS at home off a loss when matched up against .375 (or better) non-division foes.  Lay the points with the Vikings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over New England.  Bill Belichick's men are currently riding a 6-game SU/ATS win streak, and have scored an average of 35.16 ppg (after averaging 20.83 ppg over their first 6 games).  Meanwhile, the Bills are 3-3 over their previous six games, and have seen their offensive output drop from 34.4 ppg prior to those six games to 25.66 ppg over their last 6 outings.  But I love Buffalo to bounce back on this Monday.  Indeed, the Bills won both meetings vs. New England last season, and scored 38 and 24 points in those two games.  And NFL teams (like New England) off 3 SU/ATS wins by 20+ points have covered just 1 of 14 regular season road games vs. winning opposition.  Take Buffalo minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Denver.  Going into Halloween weekend, each of these two teams was 3-4, and their prospects for reaching the postseason were diminished.  But Denver has won 3 of 4 since, while KC is riding a 4-game win streak.  So, the winner of this game will be atop the division (or tied), and be in control of its playoff destiny.  We'll lay the points with Kansas City, and go against a Broncos club off an upset win as a home underdog last week.  Since 1980, winning teams have gone 45-74-2 ATS on the road, if they were off a double-digit upset home win, and not favored by 7+ points in their current game.  Moreover, KC has gone 28-16 ATS vs. foes that covered the spread by more than 7 points in their previous game.  Lay the points with Patrick Mahomes & Co.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Arizona Cardinals.  In its last game, Arizona went into Seattle, and upset the Seahawks as a 4.5-point road underdog, 23-13.  But off that division upset win, we will fade Arizona as a non-division road favorite.  Indeed, the Cardinals have covered just 4 of 17 non-division games off an upset division win, in which they covered the spread by 10+ points (and NFL teams have covered just 186 of 430).  Meanwhile, the Bears are an awesome 9-0 ATS as a home underdog of +6 (or more) points if they didn't cover the spread in either of their two previous games.  With Chicago in off back to back ATS losses to Detroit and Baltimore, we'll grab the points with Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.