At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the New York Jets.  The Jets come into this game off back-to-back upset wins over Denver and Philly and have covered 3 straight overall.  But the Jets are now favored for the first time all season, and on the road no less.  (I understand the two teams share the stadium, but it's still a Giants home game, and the Giants' season ticket holders will be in the stands.).  I don't like playing on NFL road favorites following back to back upset wins, as they've cashed just 35.7% the past 42 years.  And the Jets are also a poor 16-28 ATS off 3 ATS wins.  Take the Giants + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans and Carolina Panthers Under the total.  First-year Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans is starting to mold the Texans in his image.  The Texans have given up just 13.3 ppg their last three games, and all three went under the total.  And, dating back to his stint as defensive coordinator of the 49ers, 20 of his last 33 games have gone Under.  The Under is also 3-0-1 in the last four meetings between these clubs, including a 24-9 win by Carolina two seasons ago.  Take the Under.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over Tampa Bay.  We played against Buffalo each of the past two weeks, and got the $$$ with New England last Sunday, and the New York Giants the week before.  We also played against Tampa Bay last week, and won our NFC South Game of the Year on Atlanta.  In this Thursday game, we will side with the homestanding Bills, and look for Josh Allen & Co. to bounce back from their disappointing game at New England.  Indeed, the Bills generally bounce back at home off losses, and especially in non-division games, where they've gone 55-31-4 ATS.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over Kansas City.  The Chargers are a sensational 111-61 ATS as a road underdog of +2 or more points, including 29-9 ATS within the division when the Chargers have owned a losing record.  Los Angeles has covered 5 of the last six in this series with its only point spread loss as a 3-point underdog in overtime, when it lost by 6.  Take Los Angeles.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + over Green Bay.  The Denver Broncos come into this game at Mile High Stadium with a 1-5 record (.167), while Green Bay is slightly better, at 2-3 (.400), for a win percentage differential of .233.  We’ll take Denver as a home dog, as it is a jaw-dropping 50-14-4 ATS at home when not favored by more than 2 points, if its opponent didn’t have a win percentage differential of .333 (or better), including a perfect 13-0-2 ATS if the Broncos’ win percentage was .333 (or less).  Additionally, home underdogs on 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks have covered 62% since 1980 vs. non-division foes off a loss.  Take the Broncos.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are 3-2 on the season, but it’s a phony 3-2, as they have been outscored by an average of 6.2 points per game, and they have failed to cover the point spread by an average of 4.5 points per game.  And they’ve been outyarded in every single game — even their three wins.  They defeated Cleveland by 4 points, but the Browns outgained them by 153 yards.  They won by 5 over the Raiders, but Las Vegas outgained them by 29 yards.  And then, in their last game, they defeated the Ravens by 7 but Baltimore outgained them by 46.  In contrast, the Rams have outscored their opponents by 3.5 points per game, and have covered the point spread by 5.16 points per game.  And they’ve outgained four of their 6 opponents, even the San Francisco 49ers, though they lost that game by 7.  I’ll lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Patriots have been installed as a big home underdog vs. their division rival.  And New England will be looking to snap a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak.  We'll grab the points, as New England is 28-5 ATS as an underdog of 4+ points, when its W/L percentage was .400 (or less), and it was not off an ATS win, including 12-1 ATS when playing with revenge.  Take New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over Cleveland.  The Browns stunned the previously unbeaten San Francisco 49ers last week, when they won, 19-17, as a 9.5-point underdog.  But off that huge upset win, we’ll fade Cleveland as a road favorite.  Indeed, since 1984, .500 (or better) road favorites have covered just 27.5 percent off an upset win as a 5-point (or greater) underdog.  The Colts also come into this game off a blowout loss, and they’re 54-30 ATS off a straight-up defeat.  Take the Colts + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  This is the first meeting between these NFC South Division rivals, and underdogs have been great in games between NFC South Division rivals when it was the first meeting of the season, as they've gone 37-19-1 ATS.  Tampa's 3-9-1 ATS its last 13 as a favorite, and also 7-25-3 ATS off a loss in competitively-priced games with point spreads less than 5.  Finally the Falcons are off an upset loss to Washington, and fall into a 163-105 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams with losing SU/ATS records off losses.  Take the Falcons + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints and Jacksonville Jaguars Over the total.  The Saints have played all 6 games in the 30s this season, and this Over/Under has been priced accordingly.  But the Jaguars have played four of their six games at 45+ points, with three topping 50 points, including last week's 37-20 victory vs. Indianapolis.  Jacksonville's gone OVER 13 of 18 games when the O/U line was 43 points or less.  And I look for a relatively high scoring game on Thursday.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over Jacksonville.  The Jaguars blew out Indianapolis last week for their 3rd straight win and cover, while the Saints were upset at Houston, 20-13.  We'll play against Jacksonville on Thursday, as road teams off 3 SU/ATS wins are an awful 16-37 ATS vs. foes that were upset on the road the previous week.  Additionally, the Saints are a super 67-34 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes off a win.  Take New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Bills come into this game off a loss last Sunday in London.  I will fade Buffalo, as NFL teams have gone 4-18 ATS in the United States following a game in London.  Moreover, the Giants have lost all five games ATS this season.  However, underdogs off 5 ATS losses have covered 64.8%, including 12-3 ATS when getting more than 11 points.  Grab the points with New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over Detroit.  The Lions come into this Sunday's game on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak.  But they will have to play a rested Tampa Bay team coming off its bye week.  We'll grab the points with Tampa, as Detroit is an ugly 3-26 ATS off a home win, if it owned a win percentage of .692 (or better), including 0-13 ATS vs. an opponent off a straight-up win.  Take Tampa Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  New England was shut out, 34-0, last week by New Orleans.  And that was the 4th time the Patriots have been shut out under coach Bill Belichick.  How did New England do after those three previous shutout defeats?  They went 3-0 SU/ATS, and scored 31, 40 and 33 points.  This week, they'll play a Raiders team off a SU/ATS win last Monday vs. Green Bay.  We'll grab the points with the Patriots, as they've gone 22-0-1 ATS on the road in the regular season off a loss when playing an opponent off a win.  And Las Vegas is 29-68-1 ATS as a favorite vs. a foe off a loss.  Take New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders Over the total.  The Patriots were shut out, 34-0, last week by the Saints.  And New England has scored just 18 points over its three previous games -- each of which went under the total.  But off this string of low-scoring games, we'll look for a higher scoring game, here, as NFL games have gone Over the total 62.1% over the last 36 seasons, if a team scored 25 points or less over its three previous games, and each went under the total.  Even better:  the Patriots have gone Over 64% after not scoring 10 or more points in their previous game.  Take the Over.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over the Chicago Bears.  The Bears blew out Washington by 20 points for their first win of the season, while Minnesota also has just 1 victory, which was an 8 point win at Carolina two weeks ago.  The Vikings have been saddled with a difficult opening schedule, as their four losses have all been to teams that made the playoffs last season, including Philadelphia and Kansas City, the two Super Bowl participants.  But now, the Vikings will play the Bears who, like Carolina, is one of the worst teams in the league.  Minnesota is 15-9-1 its last 25 as road favorites, while Chicago is 1-13 SU and 3-10 ATS as home underdogs.  And NFC North division teams off a loss are 68-43 ATS vs. division rivals off a win.   Lay the points with the Vikings.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Miami Dolphins.  The Panthers are 0-5 straight-up, and 1-4-1 ATS, including 0-3 SU/ATS in their last 3 games.  I look for Carolina to break through with its first ATS win this season, as underdogs of more than 5 points have gone 121-79 ATS in non-division games off 3 SU/ATS losses.  Take the Panthers + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints and Houston Texans Over the total.  The Saints shut out the New England Patriots last week, 34-0.  And that game went under the total.  But off that shutout win, I'll look for a higher scoring game at Houston, as NFL teams off shutout wins have gone over the total 59% in games with O/U lines > 42.  Additionally, the Texans are 26-12 Over at home following back to back Unders.  This will be a high scoring game.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Seattle.  The Bengals got off the schneid last week when they blew out Arizona, 34-20, for their first point spread win of the season.  They'll now host the Seahawks, who had last week off following a 24-3 annihilation of the New York Giants.  The Bengals are still undervalued, in my estimation, and I'll lay the short number.  Cincinnati is a powerful 17-0-1 ATS when not laying 7 or more points, if its foe had a Win Percentage between .400 and .823.  And Seattle is 17-32 ATS off a win by more than 20 points.  Take the Bengals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over San Francisco.  It's unclear if Deshaun Watson will return from his rotator cuff injury this week.  If he can't go, then PJ Walker will start for Cleveland.  I'll take the points with the Browns, as I look for them to bounce back strong off their bye week.  Indeed, home underdogs of more than 5 points off their Bye week have gone 33-12 ATS vs. unrested foes.  And NFL home dogs (or PK) off blowout losses by more than 2 TDs have covered 61.8% vs. foes off blowout wins by more than 2 TDs.  Grab the points with Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Broncos are off to a 1-4 SU/0-4-1 ATS start, after last week's upset loss against the Jets, while KC is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS following a 27-20 victory vs. Minnesota.  We'll grab the points with the Broncos, as AFC West division teams with a losing record, have gone 144-84-7 ATS in division road games if they weren't favored by more than 3 points.  Even better:  Kansas City is 10-20-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite vs. losing teams.  And NFL teams off upset losses have cashed 63.1 percent since 1980 in Thursday games vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos and New York Jets Under the total.  The Jets have been installed as a small road underdog in this game.  And New York has gone under the total 9 of its last 10 games that have been competitively-priced with point spreads of 4 or less.  Meanwhile, Denver is 42-22-1 Under the total its last 65 as favorites, including 8-1 Under its last 9 when favored at home by 3 or less points.  Take the Under.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Houston.  I played on the Houston Texans each of the last two weeks, and was rewarded with upset wins over Jacksonville and Pittsburgh.  But I can't get behind Houston off those back to back upset wins.  Indeed, since 1980, NFL road underdogs off back to back upset wins have cashed just 37 percent vs. non-division foes off back to back losses.  I'll lay the points with Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts over Tennessee.  Last week, the Titans upset the Cincinnati Bengals, 27-3, as a 2.5-point home underdog.  But off that big upset win, I'll fade Mike Vrabel's men on the division road, as division road underdogs have covered just 41% since 1980 off a double-digit upset home win, including just 33% vs. foes off a home loss.  And the Colts are, indeed off a home loss.  Even better:  Indy is 53-30 ATS off a straight-up defeat.  Take the Colts.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection in on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  The Ravens/Steelers rivalry is among the best in the NFL.  And one of the things I love to do in this series is take the underdog if it owns the worse Won/Loss record.  Since 2010, the underdog in this situation has gone 12-0-1 ATS.  That bodes well for Pittsburgh as a home underdog.  As does that the fact that home dogs have cashed 61% off a loss by 15 or more points, if matched up against a division foe off a 15-point (or greater) win.  With the Steelers off a 30-6 blowout loss, and Baltimore off a 28-3 win, we’ll grab the points with Mike Tomlin’s men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the game between Houston and Atlanta.  The Falcons only scored 7 in their game in London, England last Sunday.  I look for a higher-scoring game back in the States, as teams have gone Over the total 60% following an international game.  Additionally, the Falcons have gone 26-6 Over the total after scoring less than 10 points, if the O/U line was between 36.5 and 44.5 points.  Take the Over.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints Over the total.  Both the Patriots and Saints come into this game off blowout losses.  New Orleans was upset at home by Tampa Bay, 26-9, while New England was blown out by the Cowboys, 38-3.  With both teams scoring less than 10 points last week, and averaging less than 16 points on the season, the knee jerk reaction might be to look for a low-scoring game here.  But I'll run the other way and take the OVER, as NFL games have gone Over the total 57% of the time if both teams failed to score 10 or more points in their previous game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Miami Dolphins.  Both of these teams come into this game off blowout losses:  New York fell, 24-3, on Monday night, at home, vs. Seattle, while Miami lost, 48-20, at Buffalo.  The difference, of course, is that Miami had covered the point spread in its first three games, while the Giants have yet to cover the spread this season.  The good news for New York is that NFL underdogs on 4-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks have covered 58% of non-division games since 1980.  Additionally, the Dolphins are 9-24 ATS when favored by 9+ points, including 4-18 ATS vs. foes not off an ATS win, while the Giants are 27-14 ATS when getting 9 or more.  We'll grab the points with New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the New York Giants over the Seattle Seahawks.  The Seahawks have won back to back games against the Carolina Panthers and Detroit Lions.  And they tallied 37 points in each victory.  I’m going to go against them on the road at New York, as teams off back to back 37-point games have covered just 37% over the last 44 seasons when playing on the road vs. a foe off a straight-up loss, including 20% ATS in non-division games.  Lay the points with New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over the Arizona Cardinals.  The Cardinals blew out the previously-undefeated Cowboys, 28-16, as an 11-point home underdog.  But off that win, I will fade Arizona at San Francisco.  Since 1980, road underdogs have cashed just 42% off upset wins as double-digit dogs.  Additionally, the 49ers are 32-20 ATS at home vs. foes that won outright as an underdog the previous week.  And the Niners are also 13-1 ATS their last 14 home games when installed as the favorite.  Take San Francisco minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens + the points over Cleveland.  The Ravens were upset at home, 22-19, by the Indianapolis Colts last week.  And Baltimore was a 7.5-point favorite in that game.  But off that defeat, we’ll take the Ravens as a division road underdog at Cleveland.  Indeed, division dogs, off an upset loss in which they failed to cover the point spread by more than 10 points, have covered 58% since 1980 vs. opponents that don’t have a better win percentage.  That bodes well for John Harbaugh’s men on Sunday.  As does the fact that the Ravens are 35-20-4 ATS on the road off an upset loss, including 14-3-1 ATS as an underdog vs. .666 (or better) foes.  Take Baltimore.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over Philadelphia.  The Commanders lost for the first time this season when the Bills blew them out, 37-3, in Buffalo.  But off that huge defeat, I’ll take Washington to rebound in this division game at Philly.  Indeed, since 2000, .666 (or better) teams have gone 13-1 ATS as underdogs of +6 (or more) points, if they lost their previous game by more than 15 points.  And the Commanders are also 27-13-2 ATS on the road off a home loss, if their win percentage was greater than .400.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Steelers are 2-1 following an upset win last Sunday night at Las Vegas.  They’re back on the road at Houston this week, and have been installed as a road favorite.  Unfortunately for the Black and Gold, .666 (or better) road favorites have covered just 41% since 1980 off an upset road win, if matched up against an opponent with a losing record.  Pittsburgh’s also a wallet-busting 26-52 as a non-division road favorite of minus 2 (or more) points.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the New Orleans/Tampa Bay game.  The New Orleans Saints (along with the New York Jets) have played the lowest-scoring games in the NFL this season, as they’ve averaged just 34.33 ppg.  Not surprisingly, all three have gone Under the total.  But off this string of low-scoring games, I’ll look for a relatively high scoring game on Sunday, as the Over falls into Totals systems of mine that have cashed 66% and 68% since 1980.  The Saints are also 46-27 Over at home off back-to-back Unders (including 17-8 Over off 3+ Unders).  Take Tampa/New Orleans Over the total.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Denver Broncos/Chicago Bears game.  Last Sunday, these two teams gave up an ungodly amount of points.  Chicago allowed the Chiefs to score 41, while Denver gave up 70 to Miami.  But off those two ugly defensive performances, I’ll look for a much better defensive effort given by both teams here.  And NFL games with Over/Under lines of 46 or more, have gone Under the total 63% the last 38 years, if both of the teams gave up 35 or more points in their previous game.  Take the Under

At 9:30 am, on Sunday, in a game played in London, England, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the points over Atlanta.  Last week, I played against the Jaguars, and got the cash with Houston, which blew out Jacksonville, 37-17, as a 7.5-point underdog.  After 2 straight home losses, maybe the Jaguars can find some better fortune across the pond, in England.  I will lay the points with the Jaguars, as NFL teams have covered 69% the last 38 seasons away from home, if they were off a double-digit division loss as a favorite of more than 7 points.  Additionally, the Falcons have only covered 3 of 16 (18.75%) away from home as an underdog of 3 or more points vs. an opponent off an upset loss.  Lay the points with the Jaguars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Eagles come into this Monday Night Football game with a 2-0 record after beating the Patriots and Vikings to start the season.  We'll go against Philly, as undefeated teams have cashed just 39.5% as a road favorite on Monday Night Football since 1980, including 2-11 ATS vs. opponents off a straight-up and against-the-spread win.  With Tampa, indeed, in off a 10-point victory over the Bears, I'll grab the points with the Buccaneers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Bears have started the season 0-2 SU/ATS, with an 18-point loss to Green Bay in Week 1, and a 10-point defeat last Sunday at Tampa.  Meanwhile, KC is 1-1 SU/ATS as it lost to the Lions at home, but rebounded to take down the Jaguars in Jacksonville last week.  I like taking underdogs in Week 3 off back to back double-digit losses, as they’ve covered 63% since 1980.  Take Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over the Green Bay Packers.  The Saints come into this week's game with one of the four best scoring defenses, along with Dallas, Baltimore and San Francisco.  New Orleans has allowed just 16 ppg in its wins over Tennessee and Carolina.  That bodes well for them in Week 3, as NFL teams have cashed 72.3% off a win in Week 2, if their defense was giving up less than 20 points per game, and their opponent was off a straight-up loss.  Even better:  New Orleans is a solid 68-49 ATS as a road underdog off an ATS loss/tie in its previous game.  Take the Saints.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Commanders are a surprising 2-0 following wins over the Cardinals and Broncos, and have been installed as a big home underdog vs. Buffalo, which blew out the Raiders by 28 points at home last week.  I'll take the home team, as winning home underdogs have gone 99-60 ATS since 1980 vs. foes off a 15-point (or greater) blowout home win.  Take the Commanders.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the New York Jets. The Patriots come into this divisional match-up off back to back home losses in which they were underdogs, and failed to cover the point spread.  I'll take New England on the road vs. New York as NFL teams that failed to cover their first two games as underdogs have cashed 62% as favorites in Week 3.  Also, the Patriots are 16-0 ATS in the regular season on the road off a straight-up home loss, when not favored by 7+ points.  And the Jets are a miserable 68-120 ATS at home vs. foes that don't own a winning record.  Take New England.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Jacksonville.  I'm not a big fan of laying a lot of points with teams that don't have a winning record.  And especially not against a winless team like Houston.  Consider that .500 or worse teams are 69-109-3 ATS when laying 9 or more points to winless opposition.  I’ll take the double-digits with Houston.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the San Francisco 49ers.  The Giants' defense has left a lot to be desired so far, this season.  New York allowed 40 points to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1, and then gave up 28 to the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday.  But off those two awful defensive games, I actually look for a much better effort in Week 3.  Indeed, NFL road teams not favored by 3 or more points, have gone 39-12-3 ATS in Week 3 if they allowed 62 or more points over their first two games, including a perfect 9-0-1 ATS off a straight up win.  Take New York + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants minus the points over Arizona.  The Giants laid a goose egg last Sunday, as they were shut out, 40-0, by Dallas.  Off that embarrassing defeat, we'll step in and lay the points with New York in Week 2.  Indeed, road favorites (or PK) have covered 64% since 1980 off a division shutout loss.  And the Giants are also a solid 42-23-1 ATS off a home point spread defeat.  Take New York minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over San Francisco.  The Rams pulled off a stunning Week 1 upset, when they blew out the Seattle Seahawks, 30-13, on the road.  They will now welcome the 49ers to SoFi Stadium.  We'll take the Rams as a huge underdog, as home dogs of +5 (or more) points have gone 72-53 ATS off a road upset win.  And San Francisco is a wallet-busting 35-58 ATS away from home off a win by 13+ points, including 5-18 ATS when priced from -4 to -10 points.  Take the Rams.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Tampa Bay Bucs.  Last week, the Bears were upset, 38-20, by their rival, Green Bay, while Tampa upset Minnesota, 20-17.  If one looks at the yardage stats, however, one will see that Chicago was only outgained by 18 yards (329-311), while Tampa was outgained by 127 (369-242).  The difference in the two games, of course, was turnovers.  Chicago committed 2 turnovers (vs 0 for Green Bay), while Tampa forced 3 turnovers, and didn't commit any, itself.  We'll fade Tampa off its upset win, as home favorites have covered just 31% since 1980 in Week 2 off an upset road victory, if its opponent was off an upset defeat.  Grab the points with Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over Detroit.  The Lions upset the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs to kick off their season.  But off that upset victory, we'll fade Detroit on Sunday.  Indeed, over the past 43 years, home favorites have covered just 30.7% off an upset win over the defending Super Bowl champs, if they were matched up against a foe off an upset defeat.  With Seattle in off an upset loss at the hands of the Rams, we'll grab the points with Pete Carroll's men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  Josh Allen could not have played worse last Monday, as he committed a key fumble, and also threw 3 interceptions.  We didn't mind, as we had a big play on the Jets.  But we'll switch gears, and take Buffalo to bounce back here, at home, in Week 2.  The Bills are a solid 20-6 ATS as a home favorite off a road loss, when playing an opponent off a win.  Lay the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons over the Green Bay Packers.  The Packers have been installed as a small road favorite following their upset win, 38-20, over division rival, Chicago.  We'll fade Green Bay, as road favorites have covered just 33% since 1980 in Week 2 off upset wins on the road over a division rival to start the season.  I look for Green Bay to have a letdown on Sunday.  Take Atlanta.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Jets are looking for big things this season behind newly-acquired QB Aaron Rodgers.  And it all starts tonight, in a Week 1 game against division rival, Buffalo.  We'll grab the points with New York, as Aaron Rodgers has gone 73-43-4 ATS at home in his career starts, including 6-1-1 ATS as an underdog, and 29-13 ATS in division games.  Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills are a wallet-busting 9-16-1 ATS as a division road favorite.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over the Miami Dolphins.  The Chargers are my Futures Pick this season at 25-1 odds to win the Super Bowl.  I expect a major leap forward for Brandon Staley’s men and one of my primary reasons is the hire of Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator.  When Moore was with the Cowboys the past 4 seasons, Dallas’s offense ranked among the Top 4 in the league over that 4-year stretch.  The Chargers added rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnson, who was their first round draft pick, and he’ll team up with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to give 4th year QB Justin Herbert a trio of quality receivers to throw downfield.  And, of course, the Chargers have Austin Ekeler in the backfield, so the pieces are there to make a Super Bowl run.  The Chargers are 15-2-1 ATS in season openers when not favored by 4+ points, including a perfect 10-0 ATS in non-division games.  Take Los Angeles to blow out Miami.   Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over Philadelphia.  The Patriots have been installed as a home underdog vs. the defending NFC Conference champs, and I’ll grab the points with Bill Belichick's men.  New England is 31-16-1 ATS as a home underdog (or PK), including 23-7 ATS vs. non-division foes, while Philly is a poor 10-22 ATS as a road favorite of -3 (or more) points, including 3-12 ATS in non-division games.  Even worse for the Eagles:  the teams that lost the Super Bowl the previous year have gone 12-32-2 ATS as a non-division road favorite of -4 or less points vs. non-division foes.  Finally, the Underdog is 8-3 ATS in this series.  Take the Patriots + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Cincinnati Bengals.  Division home dogs in the month of September are 51-29 ATS their last 80. And the underdog
in this Buckeye State rivalry has gone 20-11-1 ATS in the last 32 meetings, and 6-1 ATS in the last seven.  Take the Browns + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, on February 12, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles to go OVER the total.  The Chiefs were the #1 offensive team in the league this past season, as they scored 29.1 ppg.  The Eagles finished #3, with an average of 28.05 ppg.  But the Chiefs failed to reach 28 points in either of their two playoff games, and both went under the total.  Indeed, the Chiefs have now gone under the total in each of their last three games by 5.5, 5.0 and 8.0 points.  But off those three games, we'll look for a much higher scoring game on Super Bowl Sunday, as Andy Reid-coached teams have gone Over the total 63% off 3+ Unders.  Additionally, NFL games with Over/Under lines of 50+ points have gone OVER the total 84.2% since 1980 if a team averaged at least 23 ppg on offense, and each of its three previous games went UNDER the total by more than 4 points.  And, finally, NFL match-ups between two exceptional offensive teams with scoring averages at 27.0 ppg (or better) have gone OVER the total 75.8% since 2003 if neither team went OVER the total in its previous game.  This will be a high-scoring game.  Take Super Bowl 57 OVER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals to go OVER the total.  These two AFC powerhouses met three times in 2022.  The Bengals won all three meetings by a field goal.  And all three games went for a total score NORTH of 50 points, as they totaled 65, 51 and 51 points.  The Over/Under line for this AFC Championship game is south of 50 points.  And the Chiefs have gone OVER in 9 of 11 games when the O/U line was 50 points or less.  We'll look for a relatively-high scoring game on Sunday.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the OVER in the Philadelphia/San Francisco game.  NFC Championship games have largely been high-scoring affairs.  Indeed, the last 31 NFC Title games have gone OVER 21-8-2.  It's true that the 49ers only scored 19 points last week, and their game went Under the total.  But they've still gone OVER in 9 of 13 games since trading for Christian McCaffrey.  And they're 5-0 OVER since October 9 following a game which went Under.  Additionally, the Eagles are 14-4 OVER when matched up against .700 (or better) foes when the O/U line was 48 or less.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Dallas Cowboys/San Francisco 49ers game.  Since trading for Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers' offense has received a major lift.  Prior to the trade, the Niners averaged 20.33 ppg, and SF went Under in five of its six games.  But following the trade, the 49ers' offense has averaged 30.75 ppg, and nine of the 12 games have gone Over the total.   Likewise, since QB Dak Prescott returned from injury, the Cowboys have averaged 32.33 ppg on offense, and seven of their 12 games have gone Over the total.  Last week, both the Cowboys and 49ers had high-scoring offensive performances in the Wild Card round.  Dallas defeated Tampa 31-14, while San Francisco bested Seattle, 41-23.  Since 1980, NFL Playoff games have gone OVER the total 63% if each team scored more than 30 points its previous game, and the O/U line was greater than 46 points.  And, finally, the 49ers have gone OVER 10-1-1 when priced as a favorite of -3.5 to -6 points, including 7-0 OVER at home.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals to go OVER the total.  When these two teams met in Cincinnati 20 days ago, the O/U line was 50.5.  And when the game was stopped in the first quarter, the in-game O/U line was 56.5.  Now, for this playoff game, the O/U line has been installed at a number less than the regular season meeting.  By my math, the value rests with the Over in this game.  Additionally, Bills have scored 32, 35, 35 and 34 points in their last four games, all of which went Over the total.  And the Bills have gone OVER in 11 of 14 home playoff games since 1980.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over the New York Giants.  This is the Giants' 3rd straight road game, while Philly will be playing at home for its 3rd straight game.  Since 1980, whether in the regular season or playoffs, NFL teams (like New York) playing their 3rd straight road game have covered just 32% vs. foes who were playing their 3rd straight home game.  (In the playoffs, the record of our road teams is 4-13-2 ATS, including 0-5 ATS vs. .700 (or better) foes).  Last week, the Giants took advantage of a defensively-challenged Vikings team.  Minnesota made the playoffs even though it had a negative scoring margin (minus 0.17), and was giving up 25.11 ppg.  Indeed, the Vikings were just the 12th team since 1980 to earn a playoff berth with a defense that gave up more than 25 ppg.  So, kudos to New York for pulling the upset.  But also take that win with a boulder of salt.  This will be a much more difficult match-up for the Giants, as Philly's scoring margin rates 7.76 ppg better than New York's.  And, had QB Jalen Hurts played in the Eagles' two losses to Dallas + New Orleans, then that 7.76 number would be likely larger.  Since October 30, the Giants have gone 4-6-1 straight-up.  And in their last 11 games, they did not earn a single win against a team with a positive season scoring margin.  Their 4 wins were against the Houston Texans (minus 7.7 scoring margin), Washington Commanders (minus 1.29 scoring margin), Indianapolis Colts (minus 8.11 scoring margin), and the Vikings (minus 0.17 scoring margin).  New York lost both games this season to Philadelphia by an average of 16 ppg, and I don't believe it will be up to the task on Saturday night.  Take the Eagles minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Jacksonville.  The Jaguars improbably roared back from a 27-0 deficit to stun the Los Angeles Chargers, 31-30.  That was the 3rd biggest comeback in the post-season (following Buffalo's comeback from a 32-point deficit on the Houston Oilers (Tennessee Titans) in the 1993 playoffs, and the Indianapolis Colts' comeback from a 28-point deficit on the Kansas City Chiefs.  And it was one of 26 comeback wins in NFL history by teams trailing by at least 24 points in the game.  However, when one looks at how those teams do the following week, they don't do very well.  Indeed, since 1980, they've covered the spread the following week just 30.7% of the time.  But that's not the worst part.  If a team came back from a 24-point (or worse) deficit, and was on the road in their next game, they've covered just 14%. And if they were playing a .615 (or better) opponent in their next game, then they've covered just 1 of 9.  And if they were an underdog of +4 (or more) points in their next game -- whether home or away -- then they've gone 0-6 ATS.  None of this bodes well for a Jaguars team playing a well-rested, Andy Reid-coached team.  In Reid's career, his teams have gone 29-6 SU and 22-13 ATS when playing with a week of rest, including 9-1 straight-up with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, and 13-0 straight-up when priced from -3.5 to -9.5 points.  It's true that the Jaguars are playing with revenge from a 10-point loss suffered here earlier this season.  But Reid's teams have gone 83-65-3 ATS against revenge-minded foes, including a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. foes off an upset home win.  Finally, the over/under line for this game is north of 50 points.  Unfortunately for Jacksonville, it's 0-16 straight-up and 2-14 ATS in games with an over/under line of 49+ points.  And it's 0-7 SU/ATS as an underdog of +13 or less points when matched up against an offense that scores > 27.75 ppg.  Take the Chiefs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs and Dallas Cowboys to go OVER the total.  These playoff games have all gone over the total thus far, and we'll look for the Bucs and Cowboys to make it a perfect 6-0 SWEEP for the Overs in the Wild Card round.  The Cowboys have played five of their last six (and seven of their last nine) OVER the total, while the Bucs have gone OVER in four of their last five.  And the OVER also falls into a 77-45 Totals system of mine.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Cincinnati/Baltimore game.  We played on the Over last week in the Bengals/Ravens game, and got the $$$ with Cincy's 27-16 win.  And we'll come right back with the Over in this Playoff game rematch.  Indeed, there have been 15 playoff games since 1980 where the teams also met in the final regular season game, and 12 of those 15 playoff games went Over the total.  Even better, the Bengals have gone Over the total 9 straight division games when the O/U line was between 38 and 44 points.  Take the Ravens/Bengals Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings Under the total.  The New York Giants went under the total in 10 of their 17 games this season, and have gone under 106-79-1 their last 186 games.  Even better:  when priced as an underdog of less than 4 points (or PK), New York has gone under 32-13-1, including 10-0 under its last 10.  And, finally, the Giants have also gone under in nine of their last 12 playoff games.  Likewise, Minnesota has gone under the total in nine of their last 12 playoff games.  This will be a low-scoring game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars Over the total.  The Jaguars come into this game off 3 straight Unders, and they also won each of those games SU.  But off that string of low-scoring victories, we'll look for a relatively-high scoring game on Saturday, as NFL teams off 3 straight wins, and 3 straight unders have proceeded to go OVER the total 69.2% since 1980.  Meanwhile, the Chargers flew over the total in their previous game by 20 points, as they lost 31-28 to Denver, when the O/U line was just 39.  That also bodes well for the Over, as teams off high-scoring games that went over the total by 20+ points have also gone Over in their next game in the Playoffs 59% of the time.  The meeting between these teams earlier this season went over the total by 2.5 points, and 11 of the 13 meetings in this series have gone Over.  We'll look for another high-scoring game on Saturday night.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Minnesota Vikings.  The Vikings were blown out last week, and they’re now a road favorite against Nathan Peterman and the Bears.  Unfortunately for Minnesota, it’s 0-12 ATS as a division road favorite of -3 (or more) points if Minnesota lost its previous game.  And it’s 0-2 ATS this year, and 2-9 ATS its last 11 when favored by more than 5 points.  Meanwhile, the Bears are 21-5 ATS as a home dog if they were off back to back losses, and failed to cover the spread by more than 3 points in their previous game.  Take Chicago + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the New York Jets/Miami Dolphins game.  These two teams met in Week 5, and the Jets bombed Miami, 40-17, and went over the total of 46 by 11 points.  The Dolphins will have the same quarterback (Skylar Thompson) they did for that game, while the Jets will be led by Joe Flacco (who started New York's first three games this season) rather than Zach Wilson.  Thompson actually was not the starter in that game, but he took over for an injured-Teddy Bridgewater on Miami's 2nd offensive play.  Thompson was 19 of 33 for 166 yards and an interception in that game.  With Flacco under center, New York's first three games this season averaged 44.3 ppg, and I expect New York's offense to move the ball against a Dolphins' defense which has allowed 33, 23, 32, 26 and 23 points in its last five games.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens Over the total.  This is the lowest Over/Under the Bengals have had since last year's final regular season game, when they matched up against the Cleveland Browns.  For my money, the number is too low.  Yes, Baltimore's offense is greatly hampered by the absence of Lamar Jackson.  But there's two sides to every coin, and Cincy's offense is humming right now.  Even last week against a good Buffalo defense, Cincinnati scored a touchdown on its first possession, and was on its way to a touchdown or field goal on its second possession when the game was halted.  The in-game Over/Under line was at 56.5 at the time the game was stopped.  The Bengals have scored an average of 29.28 ppg over their previous seven games, and I believe they'll find the end zone often this afternoon.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  This will likely be the first of back-to-back meetings between these AFC North rivals, as Cincinnati will probably be seeded #3, while the Ravens will probably earn the #6 seed in the conference seedings.  Anything could happen, of course, but that's the most likely scenario.  If they meet next week, there would also possibly be a major change in the Ravens' on-field personnel, as QB Lamar Jackson would make his return from injury.  For this game, Baltimore will once again start Tyler Huntley.  That gives the decided edge in this game to Cincinnati, which is playing the best of any team in the league.  Last Monday, in the cancelled game vs. Buffalo, the Bengals had scored a touchdown on their first possession, and looked to be on their way to scoring at least a field goal, if not a touchdown, on their second possession.  When the Bengals/Bills game was halted, the in-game line was Cincinnati -3.5, with an over/under of 56.5.  I believe the Bengals would have gone on to win that game.  This Bengals team is just not one I want to step in front of right now.  They’ve covered 12 of their last 13, with their only loss coming on Monday Night Football in a horrible situation against the Browns, who were looking to snap a 4-game losing streak.  The Bengals are an incredible 9-0 ATS their last 9 (and 20-4 ATS their last 24) when playing a winning opponent, if the Bengals were not getting more than 5 points.  Take Cincy.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers OVER the total.  The Ravens come into this game off 4 straight unders, including a 17-9 win over the Atlanta Falcons last Saturday.  Lamar Jackson will once again be sidelined, so the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for yet another low-scoring game tonight.  And especially because the Steelers + Ravens went Under earlier this season in Baltimore's 16-14 win.  But the Steelers have gone Over the total 60% of their rematches the past 23 seasons if the previous meeting went Under the total.  And the Over also falls into Totals system of mine which is 102-55 since 1980.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Minnesota.  The Packers and Vikings met in Week #1.  Early in that game, rookie WR Christian Watson dropped a sure TD pass as he sprinted wide open down the right sideline.  That miscue was the key play in that game, and the Packers could never get their offense on track in the 23-7 loss.  Fast forward to mid-November, and Watson had still never hauled in a TD pass.  But he had his coming-out party in Green Bay's 31-28 overtime win vs. Dallas, as he caught 3 TD passes of 58, 39 and 7 yards.  The Packers snapped their five-game losing streak that afternoon, and have won three of their five games since to pull into the Playoff picture.  Should the Packers win today and next week, and the Commanders lose once more, the Packers would qualify for the playoffs.  So, today's game is huge for Aaron Rodgers & Co.  And the Packers are an awesome 72-42-4 ATS at home with Rodgers under center, including 29-10-2 ATS in the regular season vs. an opponent off a SU win.  Lay the points with Green Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Indianapolis/NY Giants game.  Last week, I had my Monday Night Football Total of the Year on the UNDER in the Colts/Chargers game, and was rewarded with a 20-3 Chargers victory.  The Colts managed just 69 rushing yards and 104 passing yards for the entire game.  I don’t see much more scoring here, as the Giants generally play Unders.  New York is 36-16 Under at home, including 18-5 Under when the line was less then 44 points.  And it's also 12-0 Under at home off a straight up loss.  Meanwhile, the Colts have gone 8-3 Under their last 11 on the road, and 31-18 Under off a loss.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Under in the Colts/Chargers game.  The Colts were stunned last week by Minnesota, which roared back from a 33-0 deficit to down the Colts, 39-36.  We'll look for a much lower scoring game on Monday, as Indy has gone Under the total 47-27 at home off a loss in which it gave up 30+ points.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Over in the Denver/Los Angeles Rams game. The Broncos opened the season with 11 unders in their first 12 games. And after that start to the season, the oddsmakers continually adjusted the Over/Under lines to get us to the point today where we are at. By my math, the value in Denver's Over/Unders has been on the Over the last two games, and not surprisingly, both went Over the total.  I think there's also value on the Over in this game, as the line is still just too low.  Indeed,it's been 11 seasons since the Rams have seen an Over/Under line this low. And it's tied for the lowest Over/Under line in a Broncos game over the past 11 seasons. Take the Rams & Broncos to go Over the total. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Philadelphia.  We played against the Eagles last week, and cashed our NFC Underdog of the Month on the Chicago Bears.  This will be Philly's 3rd straight road game, and underdogs playing their 3rd straight road game, off back to back wins, have gone 24-37-1 ATS since 1980.  Meanwhile, the Cowboys lost, 40-34, at Jacksonville.  But the Cowboys are 25–12-1 ATS off an upset road loss, if they were playing an opponent off a SU win, including 7-0 ATS if they allowed 34+ points in that upset loss.  Take Dallas minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders and San Francisco 49ers Over the total.  Since trading for Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers' offense has scored 23, 31, 22, 38, 13, 33, 35 and 21 points, for an average of 27 points per game.  Before getting McCaffrey, the Niners' offense averaged 20.33 ppg.    Not surprisingly, five of San Francisco's first six games went under the total, but since the trade, it has gone OVER the total in five of eight games.  I look for another high-scoring game on Saturday.  Take Washington & San Francisco Over the total

At 1 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Tennessee.  The Titans are 7-7, but mired in a 4-game SU/ATS losing streak.  They now will be hosting a Texans team which is 1-12-1, but still playing hard, as evidenced by their last two losses to the KC Chiefs (30-24, overtime) and Dallas Cowboys (27-23).  I don't want any part of a Titans team without its #1 signal caller, Ryan Tannehill, who underwent ankle surgery, and will be unlikely to play the remainder of this season.  Tennessee will be quarterbacked this afternoon by rookie Mailk Willis.  Houston will be familiar with Willis, as he led Tennessee to a 17-10 win at Houston earlier this season (his first-ever NFL start), as a 1.5-point road favorite.  But non-winning NFL teams off a loss have covered just 34% at home vs revenge-minded foes, if they were favored by less than 7 points (or PK).  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Baltimore/Atlanta game.  The Ravens come into this game off 3 low-scoring contests vs. Denver (10-9), Pittsburgh (16-14) and Cleveland (13-3).  And each went under the total.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game, here.  But NFL games have gone OVER the total 58% over the past 43 seasons if a team didn't score 17+ points in any of its three previous games, and those 3 games went Under the total, and totaled, in the aggregate, 80 or less points.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Detroit.  This is Carolina's final home game of the season, and they're off a loss to Pittsburgh where they failed to cover the spread by 11 points.  Meanwhile, Detroit’s off three straight wins, and has won 6 of 7.  We’ll take Carolina, as home teams have covered 59% of their final home games of the season if they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points in their previous game, and their opponent was off back to back wins.  Take the Panthers.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Washington/New York Giants game.  The Giants' last four games have averaged 51.75 ppg, and three of the four have gone 'over' the total.  We'll look for another relatively-high scoring game on Sunday night, as the Over falls into a 98-53 Totals system of mine.  Take the Over.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over Washington.  Last week, the Giants were mauled at home by the Philadelphia Eagles, 48-22.  New York now sits with a 7-5-1 record, and would earn the 7th (and final) NFC playoff berth, based on the current standings.  We'll grab the points with New York, as it's 14-4 ATS off a home loss by 20+ points.   And it's also 27-11 ATS as an underdog of +2.5 (or more) points vs. division rivals, if New York owned a winning record.  Take the Giants.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Tampa Bay/Cincinnati game.  We played on the Buccaneers to go Over the total last week, in their game against San Francisco, and were rewarded with a 35-7 49ers blowout.  We'll look for this game to go Over the total, as well, as Tom Brady's teams have gone OVER 11 of 14 games after scoring less than 10 points, including 6-0 OVER if they lost that previous game by 17+ points.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over the Cincinnati Bengals.  Last week, Tom Brady & Co. played about as bad a game as they could have, and were destroyed by San Francisco, 35-7.  But off that 28-point blowout loss, we'll take the Bucs to bounce back on this afternoon.  Indeed, over the last 43 years, home dogs of more than 3 points that scored 7 or less, and allowed 35 or more in their previous game, have covered 62%.  We saw this situation earlier this season when Pittsburgh was blown out, 38-3, by Buffalo.  They played these Bucs in their next game, and we had a huge play on the Steelers as a 9.5-point underdog.  They won outright, 20-18.  Coincidentally, that game marked the start of Tampa's decline this season.  The Bucs were 3-2 entering that contest, but have gone 3-5 SU and 1-6-1 ATS from that point.  Of course, the oddsmakers have significantly adjusted the numbers for Tampa, such that it's now installed as a home dog vs. Cincy.  I won't pass up this opportunity to play on Tampa, as Tom Brady's teams are 16-0 ATS their last 16 (and 25-2 ATS their last 27) off a straight-up loss, if they weren't favored by more than 1 point!  Take the Buccaneers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over New England.  The Raiders were upset by the Rams last Thursday night, as a road favorite, while New England won and covered as a road favorite at Arizona.  We'll take the Raiders, as teams off an upset loss as a road favorite have gone 54-33 ATS vs. foes off an SU/ATS win as a road favorite.

At 1:00 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over Philadelphia.  The Bears come into this game on a 6-game losing streak.  And they've also failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games.  We'll take Chicago as a big home dog, as it's cashed 83% over the last 43 seasons as a home underdog of +6 (or more) points, if it didn't cover the spread in its two previous games.  Even better:  the Bears had their Bye week last weekend.  And NFL teams off their Bye week have cashed 67.7% as a home dog of more than 5 points.  Take Chicago + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins to go OVER the total.  Yes, it's the month of December, and wintry weather conditions are afoot.  But the forecast for Saturday night isn't horribly bad.  There's a little bit of snowfall in the forecast, with winds in the 10 mph to 15 mph range, and a temperature of 22 degrees.  I like the Over in this game, as this is a relatively-low total for a Bills game.  Indeed, in the past three seasons only eight Buffalo games have had a lower number than what we currently see for this game.  And the Bills went OVER the total in six of those eight games.  Similarly, the Dolphins have played 30 games over the past two seasons.  Only 7 of those 30 had a lower number than this game, and Miami went Over the total in four of those seven.  Earlier this season, the number posted for the Bills game in Miami was 54; last year, the two games had lines of 48.5 and 48.  By my math, the value clearly is on the side of the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over Minnesota.  I continue to believe the Vikings are overrated.  Last week, I played on the Lions -2.5 over Minnesota as my NFC North Division Game of the Year, and the Lions shellacked the Vikings, 34-23.  This week, Minny returns home to face the well-rested Colts, who are off their Bye week.  Two weeks ago, the Colts were blown out by the Cowboys, 54-19.  But that was a highly misleading final, as the score was 21-19 with 14 minutes left in the game, before Dallas exploded for 33 points in the fourth quarter.  We'll take Jeff Saturday's men to bounce back, as Indianapolis is a wallet-fattening 32-8 ATS off a straight-up loss, if it failed to cover the spread by 8 or more points in that defeat.  Additionally, NFL teams that gave up more than 52 points in their previous game have rebounded to go 10-0 ATS their last 10 (and 21-3 ATS their last 24), provided they weren't playing a revenge-minded opponent which they beat in the same, or prior season.  Take the Colts + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over San Francisco.  The Seahawks received welcome news this week when RB Kenneth Walker III returned to practice.  And that's all we need to pull the trigger on Seattle, as it has been hampered without its top 2 running backs (Walker, Rashaad Penny) on the field.  The 49ers, of course, have their own injury problems.  WR Deebo Samuel went down last week, and will miss tonight's game.  QB Brock Purdy is questionable (though I assume he will play).  Last week, the Seahawks lost here, at home, to Carolina, as a 3.5-point favorite.  We'll take Seattle to bounce back, as winning teams are 62% ATS at home since 1980 off an upset loss, if their opponent won its previous game by more than 14 points.  With SF in off a 28-point blowout win over Tampa, grab the points with Seattle.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Tampa Bay/San Francisco 49ers game.  Prior to acquiring star running back, Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers' offense averaged just 20.3 ppg, their games averaged 35.1 ppg, and five of the six went Under the total.  Now, since the trade, their offense is averaging 26.6 ppg, while their games have averaged 43.5 ppg, and four of the six have gone Over the total.  So, while it's true that Tampa's last four games have been low-scoring, and have gone Under the total, Tom Brady's teams have gone Over the total 29-16 off back-to-back Unders, and 12-4 following 3+ Unders.  Take the Bucs and 49ers Over the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Kansas City/Denver game.  The Broncos have played their last 8 games under the total.  But I'll look for a high-scoring game on Sunday, as NFL teams off 6+ Unders have gone Over the total 55.4% since 1980 if the O/U line was 47 or less points.  Even better:  the Broncos have gone Over 55-32 at home when the line ranged from 42.5 to 45.5 points.  And the Chiefs have gone Over 13-5 their last 18 as a road favorite (and 70-47 Over their last 117 as a road favorite).  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over Minnesota.  The Vikings come into this road game off 3 straight home games.  And unrested road teams off 3 home games — including a SU/ATS win at home the previous week — have gone 67-96 ATS since 1980.  That doesn't bode well for the Vikings here, at Ford Field.  Detroit has quietly covered its last five games.  And, at home this season, the Lions have outscored their foes 223-195, even though its opponents have included the likes of four current playoff teams (Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, Seahawks), as well as the Commanders and Packers.  For the season, the Lions are 8-3 ATS, and have covered the spread by an average of 2.70 ppg (Minnesota has a negative point spread differential of -1.20).  At home, Detroit's spread margin improves to +6.71, while Minnesota's road point spread differential is minus 0.30.  The Lions lost a heartbreaker earlier this season, 28-24, but covered the number in defeat.  And they've won the last 4 ATS vs. the Vikings.  The revenge-minded team in this NFC North division rivalry which lost the season's earlier meeting has gone 26-13-2 ATS.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Eagles come into this game off back to back high-scoring home wins.  They defeated the Packers two weeks ago, 40-33.  And they blew out Tennessee, 35-10, last week.  But NFL road favorites have covered just 35.2% since 1980 off back to back home wins in which they scored more than 30 points.  That doesn't bode well for Philly in this divisional game.  Nor does the fact that the Giants are 63-40 ATS as an underdog vs. .700 (or better) foes.  Take the New York Giants + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over the Tennessee Titans.  Both of these teams were blown out last week.  The Jags lost by 26 to Detroit, while Tennessee lost by 25 to Philly.  This is the first meeting of the season between these division rivals.  They’ll also meet in the last week of the regular season.  The Titans shut out Jacksonville, 20-0, in the previous meeting last season.  And revenge-minded, road underdogs that were shut out in the previous meeting have gone 64-48 ATS in the regular season since 1980.  That bodes well for the underdog Jaguars this afternoon.  As does the fact that Tennessee is a horrible 34-54 ATS as a home favorite, priced from -3 to -12.5 points.  Take the Jaguars + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Buffalo/New York Jets game.  These two teams met earlier this season, and the Jets pulled off a huge upset, 20-17, and held the Bills to their season-low in points.  That game went Under the total of 46 by 9 points.  Today's number is lower, and the Over falls into a 113-69 Totals system of mine, which is the way we'll look here.  Additionally, the Bills are 82-55 Over the total when priced as a favorite of -4 to -11 points, while the Jets have gone Over the total 67% since 1987 when playing a revenge-minded foe it upset earlier in the year.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the OVER in the Tampa Bay/New Orleans game.  These two NFC South division rivals met earlier in the season, and the Bucs triumphed, 20-10.  The Over/Under line in that game was 43.5, so it went under the total.  I look for a much higher scoring game on Monday, as NFL games have gone OVER the total 11 straight games (and 60% since 2011) if the season's previous meeting totaled 38 or less points, and also went under the total.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  The Colts were upset on Monday Night Football by the Pittsburgh Steelers, 24-17.  But off that loss, we'll take Indy on Sunday night, as it's 33-8 ATS off a straight-up loss, if it failed to cover the point spread in that previous game by 7+ points.  Even better:  NFL double-digit underdogs have cashed 66.1% the past 43 years off back to back home losses, if they were playing an opponent off back to back wins.  Take the Colts + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Denver/Baltimore game.  The Broncos have played their last 7 games under the total.  But after playing 5 straight games where their defense held their opponents to less than 20 points, the Broncos have surrendered 22 and 23 points in their two previous games.  And this weekend, they're playing a Ravens team which is averaging 25.0 ppg, and has scored 20+ points in nine of its 11 games.  Baltimore will put points on the board.  And I expect a relatively-high scoring game, as NFL teams on a streak of 6+ Unders have proceeded to go Over the total 55.5%.  Take the Ravens/Broncos over the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Defending Super Bowl champions have never — at least not since 1980 which is when my database starts — been an underdog of +14 (or more) points….until now.  But they have done well as an underdog of +5 or more points, as they’ve gone 17-9 ATS.  And defending champs have also gone 28-15-2 ATS on the road off a loss vs. a foe off a win.  The Rams fall into two of my favorite systems, with records of 156-85 and 337-232 ATS, that play on certain losing teams off losses.  We'll grab the points with L.A.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Cards were blown out by San Francisco this past Monday in Mexico, 38-10.  But off that loss, we'll step in and take Kyler Murray & Co. this afternoon.  Indeed, home underdogs are 60.1% ATS if they gave up 38+ points in their previous game, and failed to cover the spread in that game by 10 or more points.  Additionally, Arizona is 12-0 ATS following a loss by 17 or more points, if it was playing a .500 (or worse) foe in its current game.  Take Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans over the Cincinnati Bengals.  When these two teams last met, the Bengals bounced the #1-seeded Titans out of the Playoffs.  We'll take Tennessee this afternoon, as home teams are 62% ATS when playing with revenge from an upset playoff loss, if they were off a win.  Even better:  Tennessee comes into this game off back to back SU/ATS wins over Denver and Green Bay.  And home dogs/pk are 121-90 ATS in non-division games off back to back wins.  Take the Titans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Denver/Carolina game.  The Broncos come into this game off six straight Unders, while Carolina enters off back to back Unders.  Last week, the Broncos scored just 16 points, while the Panthers scored just three.  The result is that this O/U line is the lowest Total for the Broncos in 11 seasons, and the lowest Total for the Panthers in 12 seasons!  By my math, it's too low.  Indeed, since 1980, at Game 11 forward, NFL teams that averaged less than 15.9 ppg on offense, and whose games totaled, on average, less than 32 ppg, have gone OVER the total 65.1%.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.