At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers minus the points over Atlanta.  These two teams met in Atlanta on Halloween, and the Panthers were installed as a 2.5-point road underdog.  We played on Carolina in that game, and were rewarded with a 19-13 upset victory.  Carolina dominated the game, as it outyarded the Falcons, 332-213, had more first downs (21-17), and controlled time of possession (35:23 to 24:37).  For today's game, the Panthers will have an advantage of playing with an extra week of rest following its 33-10 upset loss at Miami two weeks ago.  And the Panthers are a super 20-8 ATS in division games off an upset loss.  Even better:  they're 27-9-1 ATS off a double-digit loss, if they weren't getting 3+ points in their current game.  Take Carolina minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Seattle.  The Texans come into this game off a horrible offensive performance, which saw them net just 84 rushing yards and 57 passing yards.  And they scored 0 points.  That was Houston's 2nd straight loss (both at home), so this game will conclude its 3-game home stand.  Over the last 42 years, NFL home teams have done exceedingly well off back to back home losses, as they've cashed 61 percent, including the last seven in a row.  And if our home team lost by more than 23 points in its previous game, then they've gone a perfect 9-0 ATS.  The Seahawks are not deserving to lay this many points on the road.  Seattle is 1-3 SU/ATS since QB Russell Wilson returned from injury, and averaged just 14.5 ppg in those four games.  Seattle has a negative 0.83 scoring margin for the season.  And at Game 5 forward, NFL teams with negative scoring margins of minus 0.25 (or worse) are a horrid 0-16 ATS as road favorites of -7 (or more) points when playing an opponent off a loss by 7+ points.  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Vikes lost their last two games to fall to 5-7 on the season, but each of those two was on the road.  Tonight, Minnesota is back home, and home favorites have gone 80-53 ATS in weekday games if they played their two previous games on the road.  Even better:  the Steelers upset their biggest rival (Baltimore) last Sunday, and are now 6-5-1 on the season.  Unfortunately, winning teams have cashed 0 of 8 as underdogs of less than 6 points in Thursday games, if they were matched up against a losing opponent.  Minnesota is also 12-0-1 ATS at home off a loss when matched up against .375 (or better) non-division foes.  Lay the points with the Vikings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over New England.  Bill Belichick's men are currently riding a 6-game SU/ATS win streak, and have scored an average of 35.16 ppg (after averaging 20.83 ppg over their first 6 games).  Meanwhile, the Bills are 3-3 over their previous six games, and have seen their offensive output drop from 34.4 ppg prior to those six games to 25.66 ppg over their last 6 outings.  But I love Buffalo to bounce back on this Monday.  Indeed, the Bills won both meetings vs. New England last season, and scored 38 and 24 points in those two games.  And NFL teams (like New England) off 3 SU/ATS wins by 20+ points have covered just 1 of 14 regular season road games vs. winning opposition.  Take Buffalo minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Denver.  Going into Halloween weekend, each of these two teams was 3-4, and their prospects for reaching the postseason were diminished.  But Denver has won 3 of 4 since, while KC is riding a 4-game win streak.  So, the winner of this game will be atop the division (or tied), and be in control of its playoff destiny.  We'll lay the points with Kansas City, and go against a Broncos club off an upset win as a home underdog last week.  Since 1980, winning teams have gone 45-74-2 ATS on the road, if they were off a double-digit upset home win, and not favored by 7+ points in their current game.  Moreover, KC has gone 28-16 ATS vs. foes that covered the spread by more than 7 points in their previous game.  Lay the points with Patrick Mahomes & Co.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Arizona Cardinals.  In its last game, Arizona went into Seattle, and upset the Seahawks as a 4.5-point road underdog, 23-13.  But off that division upset win, we will fade Arizona as a non-division road favorite.  Indeed, the Cardinals have covered just 4 of 17 non-division games off an upset division win, in which they covered the spread by 10+ points (and NFL teams have covered just 186 of 430).  Meanwhile, the Bears are an awesome 9-0 ATS as a home underdog of +6 (or more) points if they didn't cover the spread in either of their two previous games.  With Chicago in off back to back ATS losses to Detroit and Baltimore, we'll grab the points with Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over Cincinnati.  The Chargers were upset by division rival, Denver, 28-13, last Sunday, while Cincinnati blew out its division rival, Pittsburgh, here at home, 41-10.  But off those results, we'll grab the points with the Chargers, as road teams have covered 72% of non-division games since 1982, if they were off an upset loss, and not getting more than 4 points from a foe off a home division blowout win by 15+ points.  Additionally, Los Angeles is an awesome 47-21-1 ATS as a road underdog vs. .666 (or worse) teams off a win.  Grab the points with the Chargers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Michigan.  Last week, we played on the Wolverines as a huge home underdog against Ohio State.  And the Wolves routed the Buckeyes, 42-27, to snap an 8-game losing streak to their rival.  But off that emotional, upset win, we will fade Jim Harbaugh's men on Saturday.  Indeed, Michigan is 0-10-1 ATS its last 11 games off an upset win, if Michigan was getting at least 4 points in that prior game.  That doesn't bode well for the Maize and Blue on Saturday.  And neither does the fact that the favored team has gone 2-7-1 ATS in Big 10 Conference Title games.  Or that Iowa is 17-5 ATS as a conference underdog of +7 (or more) points, if it owned a .666 (or better) win percentage.  Finally, Michigan falls into negative 22-52 and 74-122 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off upset wins, while Iowa falls into a very good 35-6 ATS post-season system of mine based on its season stats.  Take the Hawkeyes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Oklahoma State.  This game is a rematch of a game played back in October, in Stillwater.  The Cowboys were victorious at home in that game, 24-14, as a 3.5-point favorite.  Both teams were victorious last weekend.  The Bears edged Texas Tech, 27-24, as a 14-point home favorite, while Okie State outlasted its rival, Oklahoma, 37-33, as a 4-point home favorite.  We'll grab the points with Dava Aranda's Bears, as they're 15-3-1 ATS off a point spread loss, including 8-0-1 ATS away from home.  And they're also an awesome 13-2 ATS when playing with revenge, and not laying 7+ points.  Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 0-9 ATS away from home vs. .600 (or better) foes after playing their rival, Oklahoma, at home in Stillwater.  Take Baylor + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks + the points over Utah.  These two Pac-12 rivals met in Utah last month, and the Utes routed Oregon, 38-7.  We had a big play on Utah in that game, as that was a stellar situation for the home team.  But we will switch gears and take the revenge-minded Ducks in this rematch.  Utah is a wallet-busting 6-23 ATS when favored (or PK) against a .571 (or better) revenge-minded foe.  And Oregon is a powerful 24-7-1 ATS away from home as an underdog of +3 or less points, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in the post-season.  Take the Ducks + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners + the points over Western Kentucky.  Texas-San Antonio's 11-game win streak was snapped last weekend, when it lost, 45-23, as a 9.5-point road favorite to North Texas.  But the good news for UTSA is that it's back home in the Alamodome on this Friday evening, where it will host Western Kentucky, a team it defeated, 52-46, as a 3.5-point road underdog, in October.  And the Roadrunners have been installed as a home underdog for this rematch.  That bodes well for Texas-San Antonio, as it's 13-3 ATS its last 16 as an underdog, including 5-0 ATS when off a double-digit loss, and also a perfect 5-0 ATS when getting 4 points or less.  Even better:  home underdogs with a .700 (or better) win percentage, off a loss by more than 20 points, have cashed 64% the past 42 years against conference foes off a win, including a perfect 10-0 ATS if that foe was playing with revenge.  Take the Roadrunners + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over the Green Bay Packers.  We played against Green Bay last week, and took Minnesota as a home dog, and were rewarded with an upset win.  And we'll once again go against Aaron Rodgers & Co. this afternoon -- primarily because the Rams are off back to back losses.  Los Angeles comes into this game off an upset defeat last week at San Francisco, and they lost to the Titans two games back.  And the Rams will also be playing this game with revenge from a loss to Green Bay in last year's playoffs.  This season, teams playing with revenge from a playoff defeat  have gone 6-1 ATS.  And over the last 42 years, teams playing with Playoff revenge have cashed 59% if they were matched up against a non-division foe, and were off a road loss in their previous game.  Even better:  if our revenger also lost two games back, then our 59% stat zooms to 13-1 ATS since 1980.  The Rams have been consistently very strong off losses under head coach Sean McVay.  Since his hiring in 2017, the Rams are 16-7 SU and 14-8-1 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 9-1 ATS when not laying 3 or more points, 9-3 ATS on the road, and 3-1-1 ATS off back to back losses.  Take the Rams.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over New England.  The Titans' offense has struggled the last two weeks without Derrick Henry in the fold, as they had two of their three lowest offensive outputs of the season, and failed to cover vs. New Orleans and Houston (and lost to Houston outright, as a 10.5-point favorite).  Meanwhile, the Patriots have been the hottest team in football, with five straight wins and covers, to move to 7-4 on the season.  Unfortunately for Bill Belichick's men, NFL teams off 5 SU/ATS wins have gone 69-90-6 ATS in the regular season when favored.  And teams -- like Tennessee -- off upset losses as favorites of more than 10 points, have gone 27-14 ATS, including 7-0 ATS when installed as an underdog of +4 to +9.5 points.  Take the Titans as a road underdog.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Houston.  The Texans snapped their 8-game losing streak last week when they upset Tennessee, 22-13, as a 10.5-point road underdog.  But off that huge upset win, we will fade the Texans as a home favorite this afternoon.  Since 1991, NFL teams off wins as a double-digit road underdog have gone 47-73-5 ATS, including 22-47-3 ATS vs. foes that don't have a winning record.  Additionally, the Texans are a poor 19-32 ATS off an upset win.  Take New York + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Atlanta/Jacksonville game.  The Jaguars have played their last five games Under the total, while the Falcons were shutout in their last game, so the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game this afternoon.  But teams off 5 straight unders have gone 'over' the total in their next game more often than not.  Additionally, when teams have gone 'under' in 4+ straight games, and their foe scored 7 or less in its previous game, those games have gone OVER the total 62.3% since 1980.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Jacksonville.  The Falcons are 4-6, and have dropped back to back games, as they lost by 40 to Dallas, and 25 to New England.  Yet they've been installed as a road favorite vs. Jacksonville.  On the surface, it may look difficult to lay points on the road with Atlanta.  But consider that NFL road teams have covered 65.3% over the past 42 seasons off back to back losses by more than 18 points, if their opponent was also off a SU loss.  That bodes well for Matt Ryan & Co. this afternoon.  As does the fact that .200 (or worse) teams, at Game 11 forward, have covered just 61 of 150 games if they weren't getting 4+ points.  Finally, the Jaguars are a wallet-busting 9-28-1 ATS as single-digit home dogs vs. non-division foes.  Lay the points with Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over California.  Last week, the Bruins smashed cross-town rival, USC, by 29 points.  And that succeeded a 24-point blowout of Colorado here, at the Rose Bowl.  Tonight, they'll welcome the Golden Bears, who also won in blowout fashion last week, 41-11, against rival, Stanford.  We'll lay the points with UCLA, as home teams off back to back blowout wins by 24+ points, have cashed 61.1% since 1980 vs. foes also off a blowout 24-point SU/ATS win.  That bodes well for UCLA here.  As does the fact that this will be the 3rd straight road game for Cal.  And, unfortunately for the Bears, single-digit dogs off a conference win, have cashed just 18.7% of conference games, if they were playing their 3rd straight road game, and their opponent was also off a win.  Take UCLA to blow out the Bears.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Kentucky.  The Cards come into tonight's rivalry game off their two best games of the season.  Two weeks ago, they routed Syracuse, 41-3, as a 3-point home favorite.  And then they followed up that victory with a 62-22 destruction of Duke, in Durham.  Faithful followers know I love playing on home teams that can score.  And NCAA Football teams have cashed 65.3% at home since 1980 vs. foes off a SU win, if our home team was off back to back SU/ATS wins in which it scored more than 40 points, and it wasn't favored by more than 3 points in the current game.  Take Louisville minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Kansas.  WVU is 5-6 on the season, and needs to win this afternoon to attain eligibility for a Bowl game.  Kansas has played great the previous two weeks, as it won, 57-56, as a 31-point underdog at Texas.  And then it covered the 21-point spread last week, in Fort Worth, vs. TCU (but lost 31-28).  We'll fade Kansas here, as underdogs of more than 14 points, off back-to-back covers as an underdog by more than 14 points, have cashed just 30.3% since 1980.  Take West Virginia to blow out the Jayhawks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks + the points over the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns.  On the surface, this looks like a mismatch, with the Warhawks on a 4-game losing streak, and the Cajuns on a 10-game win streak.  But this Sun Belt conference rivalry has been dominated by the underdog, and especially the ROAD underdog, which has gone a staggering 16-0 ATS since 1998!  And that's the way we'll look today, as Louisiana Lafayette also falls into a negative 80-153 ATS system of mine which fades certain .900 (or better) teams off point spread wins.  Take Monroe + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini minus the points over Northwestern.  These two cross-state rivals have met 114 times, with the Wildcats winning each of the last six.  But this is a great spot for Illinois to snap this losing streak, as it hasn't been favored by this many points since 2011.  Indeed, it's been an underdog in eight of the last nine meetings (and, more often than not, a double-digit underdog).  But this season, Northwestern is suffering through a down year, and enters this game on a 5-game losing streak.  We'll lay the points, as revenge-minded teams have cashed 60% since 1981 when playing their final home game of the season against an opponent on a 5-game (or worse) losing streak.  Take Illinois.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys minus the points over Hawaii.  The Rainbows upset the Colorado State Rams last week, on the Island, but now will play at Laramie, in their season finale.  Unfortunately for Hawaii, it's covered just 12 of 45 games off a win, if it was playing a conference foe also off a win.  And the Cowboys are 6-0-2 ATS their last eight vs. foes off an upset win, as well as 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS at home vs. Hawaii.  Take Wyoming.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over Ohio State.  The Buckeyes come into this game on a 9-game win streak, and have won their last two games by the scores of 59-31 and 56-7.  But I believe Jim Harbaugh's men are in prime position to snap their 8-game losing streak to the Buckeyes.  Michigan is 10-1 on the season, and has gone 9-2 ATS, while covering the spread by 8.18 ppg.  U-M has been installed as a big home dog, and we'll grab the points, as we note that .700 (or better) teams, playing their final home game of the season, have cashed 71.8% in their final home game of the season against a conference foe off a double-digit win, if our home team was getting 7 or more points.  Even better:  road teams off back to back 38-point (or greater) wins have covered just 23.8% since 1980 in their final game of the season when matched up against a conference foe.  Take Michigan + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates + the points over Cincinnati.  The Bearcats' undefeated record will be put to the test this afternoon, as the Pirates certainly have the wherewithal to pull off the outright upset.  ECU has won four straight, and has covered six of seven coming into this contest.  And they've scored 45, 30 and 38 in their last three games.  Faithful followers know I love playing on home dogs that can score.  And home underdogs off 3+ wins, in which they've scored 113+ points, have cashed 60% over the last 42 years, including 14-3 ATS their last 17 when getting more than 7 points from an undefeated team.  Take East Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs + the points over Boise State.  This game will be played bright-and-early on the West Coast -- a necessity since that was the only way for it to be televised by CBS.  We'll take the homestanding Aztecs as an underdog.  SDSU is 10-1 on the season.  And teams with a > .900 record have gone 74-46-5 ATS as home underdogs when matched up against opponents off a SU win, including 28-11 ATS if their opponent covered the spread by 10+ points in its previous game.  That bodes well for Brady Hoke's men today.  As does the fact that SDSU is 12-5 ATS in its final home game of the season.  Take the Aztecs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas minus the points over Eastern Michigan.  The Eagles pulled off a big upset last week, when they stunned Western Michigan, 22-21.  But they'll find the sledding tougher in Mt. Pleasant this afternoon, as the Chippewas are on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, and have covered the spread in those three games by 20.5, 21.5 and 17.5 points.  Dating back 42 years, home teams off 3 straight covers by double-digits have cashed 60% when matched up against a conference foe off an upset win.  Even worse:  Eastern Michigan is a wallet-busting 9-25 ATS on the road off a home win.  Take Central Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Ole Miss.  This Egg Bowl rivalry is one of the best in College Football, and one reason for this is that the state of Mississippi has no professional sports teams or major cities.  The rivalry dates back to 1901, when Mississippi St (then known as Mississippi A&M) defeated Ole Miss, 17-0.  Ole Miss currently leads the series 63-46-6, including a win last year, 31-24, in Oxford.  Tonight's game will be played in Starkville, and we'll take the revenge-minded Bulldogs.  The revenger in this series has done quite well, as it's gone 24-15-1 ATS, including 9-1 ATS its last 10 when it owned a win percentage of .600 (or better).  Even better:  the Bulldogs come into this game off momentum-building, back-to-back SU/ATS wins.  And they have covered the last five in a row, culminating in last week's 55-10 thrashing of Tennessee St.  The Rebels have struggled over the years in competitively-priced games with point spreads of 3 points or less, as they've gone 18-33-2 ATS, including 1-12 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes.  Take the Bulldogs minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over Dallas.  The Raiders sprinted out to a 5-2 start, including two impressive wins against Denver and Philadelphia following the Jon Gruden resignation.  But then WR Henry Ruggs caused real damage to the team (not to mention himself, and the woman he killed), and the Raiders proceeded to lose their next three games to the Giants, Chiefs and Bengals.  Las Vegas is 5-5, so it needs to win this afternoon to get back in the Wild Card hunt.  We'll take the points, as .500 (or better) NFL teams, off back-to-back games where they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points, have cashed 65.7% since 1980 vs. .700 (or better) opposition.  Additionally, the Cowboys have covered just 10 of 37 games as a home favorite vs. non-division foes, if that opponent entered off a home loss.  Take the Raiders + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the San Jose St Spartans + the points over Fresno St.  The Spartans suffered a 31-point upset loss at the hands of Utah St last week, 48-17, as a 4.5-point home favorite.  But prior to that loss, the Spartans had covered four straight games.  This afternoon, San Jose has been installed as a big home dog, and we'll grab the points, as we note that Mountain West Conference home dogs of more than 3 points have gone 41-20 ATS in their final home game of the season, including 3-0 ATS off an upset loss.  Take San Jose.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over the New York Giants.  We had our 2nd biggest play last week on the Washington Football Team as a double-digit dog vs. Tampa, and were rewarded with a huge upset win against Tom Brady & Co.  But Brady's teams have bounced back strong off losses in his career, as they've gone 58-31 ATS, including a perfect 4-0 ATS on Monday and Thursday night games, and 18-2 ATS vs. foes off back-to-back ATS wins.  With New York, indeed, riding a 3-game point spread win streak, we'll fade the Giants in Tampa.  Take the Buccaneers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Dallas.  To borrow a line from Mark Twain, the reports of Kansas City's death have been an exaggeration.  Yes, the Chiefs have not looked, at times, like the juggernaut from 2019-20, but their 41-14 dismantling of Las Vegas last week should serve as a reminder that they are a force with which to be reckoned.  And I believe the Chiefs are still woefully undervalued.  Last week, they laid just 2.5 points on the road vs. the Raiders (after being favored by 7.5, 7, and 14.5 points at the Raiders the three previous seasons).  Now, they're a short home favorite vs. an admittedly good Dallas team.  Still, Kansas City is 46-24 ATS in the regular season when not laying more than 7 points.  Meanwhile, Dallas is 14-33-1 ATS vs. winning opposition when not getting 3+ points.  Take the Chiefs to blow out Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings + the points over the Green Bay Packers.  Green Bay is 8-2, and has covered nine straight games (winning eight, straight-up), heading into this divisional match-up vs. Minnesota, which is 4-5 on the season.  Unfortunately, teams off 9 straight ATS wins have gone 0-5 ATS since Jan. 8, 2005.  And road teams, at Game 11 forward, have cashed just 1 of 14 divisional games vs. losing opposition, if our road team's ATS win percentage was greater than .750.  Take Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Miami.  The Dolphins pulled off a massive upset last week when they defeated the Baltimore Ravens, as an 8.5-point home dog.  Unfortunately, road teams have covered just 60 of 149 over the last 42 years following an upset win as a dog of more than 8 points, and just 37% when priced as a road favorite.  Take the New York Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over Oregon.  The Utes come into this home game off back to back win over Stanford (52-7) and Arizona (38-29).  I love playing on home teams that can score, and especially when I don't have to lay a lot of points.  Indeed, over the last 42 years in the regular season, home teams not favored by 4+ points have cashed 60% following back to back wins away from home in which they scored more than 35 points.  Lay the points with Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats over Baylor.  The Wildcats have dropped the last three meetings vs. Baylor, but that streak should end here, in Manhattan, on Saturday.  Kansas State is on a 4-game win streak (and 3-game ATS win streak) following its 34-17 victory last Saturday against WVU.  And while Baylor also impressed last week with an upset win, at home, vs. then-undefeated Oklahoma, I expect a letdown away from home this weekend, as teams generally do just that off such wins (and especially when installed as a short road favorite, as they're 27-42 ATS).  Even worse, over the last 42 seasons, revenge-minded teams playing their final home game of the season, off a 17-point win, have gone 16-0 ATS when not laying double-digits vs. foes off an upset home win.  Take Kansas State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs minus the points over Kansas.  The Jayhawks won their biggest game, perhaps, since 2008's Orange Bowl victory over Virginia Tech, when they upset Texas last week.  The Jayhawks won, 57-56, in overtime, as a 31-point road underdog, and it was the first time since October 4, 2008 that the Jayhawks won on the Big 12 road!  Unfortunately, Kansas is back on the road in this game at TCU, which will be looking to redeem itself after a 63-17 blowout loss at Oklahoma State last weekend.  We'll go against Kansas, as Big 12 Conference teams are 0-10 ATS on the road off an upset road win as a 6-point (or greater) underdog.  Take TCU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins + the points over Michigan.  The Terps are 5-5 straight-up, but they've lost their last six to the spread.  And they need to win one of their final two games (Michigan, Rutgers) to attain Bowl eligibility.  It's true that Michigan has been a great point spread team this season, with an 8-2 ATS record.  But NCAA teams off an ATS win have gone 15-32 ATS vs. foes off 6+ ATS losses in a row.  And .500 (or better) teams off 6+ ATS losses have cashed 43 of 75 (57.3%), including 6-2 ATS as a home dog of +7 (or more) points.  With Michigan off a big road win against a good Penn State team, we'll look for a letdown this afternoon.  Take Maryland + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers minus the points over Arkansas State.  The Red Wolves won their 2nd game of the season when they upset Louisiana Monroe last week, as a 3-point road underdog.  But they'll be hard-pressed to make it two-upsets-in-a-row, as the Panthers have covered five straight (and seven of eight) heading into this game in Atlanta.  Last week's game was Georgia State's most impressive yet, as they won, 42-40, as a 12.5-point road underdog at Coastal Carolina.  And that bodes well for Georgia State here, as teams off a game where they covered the spread by 13+ points have gone 100-57 ATS as double-digit home favorites vs. foes off upset conference wins.  Lay the points with the Panthers.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Michigan State.  Michigan State is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS this season, yet Sparty finds itself installed as a massive underdog against Ohio State (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points but consider that, in matchups between unrested winning teams, underdogs of more than 14 points have covered just 28% since 1985, at Game 8 forward, when getting more than 14 in a regular season game, if they didn't own a worse W/L percentage!  That doesn't bode well for Michigan State, in Columbus on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that Ohio State is 34-12-1 ATS when not laying more than 20 points, if its opponent owned a better ATS win percentage.  Take the Buckeyes to blow out Michigan State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over Oklahoma.  The Sooners suffered their first loss of the season last week at Baylor, and are now 9-1 this season.  For all intents and purposes, that loss has eliminated Oklahoma from the National Title competition.  One of the things I love to do is play against certain teams that lose their first game late in the season, as they often suffer emotional letdowns following that initial defeat.  And this game vs. Iowa State is a very good place to step in and fade Oklahoma, as the Cyclones will play with revenge from a loss in last year's Big 12 Championship game.  Take Iowa State + the points.

At 8:20 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over the New England Patriots.  The Patriots have won and covered four straight games following their overtime defeat to the Dallas Cowboys.  And their last game was the most impressive, as they completely dismantled a good Cleveland Browns club, 45-7, as a 2.5-point favorite.  They'll now play a Falcons squad which was destroyed last week by Dallas, 43-3.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to lay the points with New England, given that it won by 38 last week, while Atlanta lost by 40.  But consider that home underdogs, priced from +3 to +14 points, have gone 85-59 ATS off a loss by more than 14 points, if their opponent was off a win by more than 14 points.  Even better:  if our home dog gave up 37+ points in that previous game, while our road favorite scored 37+ points in its previous game, then our 85-59 stat zooms to a perfect 11-0 ATS.  Take Atlanta + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over Denver.  Last Sunday, the Broncos blew out Dallas, 30-16, as a double-digit underdog.  We had a big play on Denver last week, but will go against them here, as a home favorite.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL teams with a win percentage greater than .300, off a double-digit win as a double-digit underdog, have covered just 10 of 40 games.  That doesn't bode well for Denver on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that the Broncos are a woeful 13-26 ATS as a home favorite of more than 2 points off an upset win.  Take the Eagles + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Arizona Cardinals.  The Cards will be without QB Kyler Murray, and WR Deandre Hopkins this afternoon.  And that's enough for us to pull the trigger on Carolina (which will be starting its own backup QB in PJ Walker).  The Cardinals pulled off an upset last week against division rival San Francisco.  And that upset win over a division foe has triggered a very good 110-48-4 ATS system of mine, as well as a 119-73 ATS angle.  The Panthers have won + covered 5 straight in this series, including 10-point and 18-point upset wins the past two seasons.  Finally, the Cardinals are a dreadful 10-28 ATS as home favorites vs. foes not off an ATS win.  Take the Panthers as a road underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Tennessee.  The Titans pulled off a stunning upset last week, as a 7-point road underdog, for their fifth straight victory and ATS win.  And their last four wins were all upsets, as they also upset the Colts, in overtime, two weeks ago, and the Chiefs and Bills before that.  Unfortunately for the Titans, favorites (or PK) off 3 straight covers have gone 0-9 ATS their last 9, and 22-53-2 ATS their last 75, while favorites off 4 straight upset wins have covered just 14% since 1980.  Meanwhile, the Saints suffered an upset loss at the hands of the Falcons.  But NFL teams off upset losses have covered 52 of 75 vs. .750 (or better) teams off upset wins, if our team off the loss wasn't getting 6+ points in the current game.  Take the Saints.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Cleveland.  The Browns upset division rival Cincinnati, 41-16, last Sunday, and will try to make it two upsets in a row when they take on the Patriots.  But underdogs are a wallet-breaking 60-94 ATS off upset wins by 20+ points.  And .500 (or better) teams have gone 6-24 straight-up, and have covered just 7 of 30 games, against the Patriots in Foxboro, if our road team wasn't getting more than 7 points.  Take New England to blow out the Browns.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Pittsburgh.  The Lions are winless (0-8) on the season.  But they've actually performed better "in Vegas" than the 5-3 Steelers.  Detroit has gone 4-4 ATS, while Pittsburgh is 3-5 ATS after its point spread defeat this past Monday vs. Chicago.  We'll take the points with the Lions, as winless teams have gone 70-39 ATS as road underdogs of +7 (or more) points, if they were matched up against an opponent off a point spread defeat.  Take Detroit.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Buffalo/New York Jets game.  The Bills were shocked last week by the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were a 14.5-point underdog, yet won, 9-6.  The Bills tend to bounce back from losses, and their games also tend to be relatively low-scoring.  Indeed, Buffalo has played its last eight games 'under' the total following a straight-up loss, and 18 of its last 24, including 9-0 UNDER if the line was 42+ points.  Take the Jets/Bills UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Football Team + the points over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  When these two teams last met, the Bucs ousted Washington from the Playoffs, in a 31-23 win, as a 13.5-point road favorite.  Once again, the Bucs are favored by a big number on the road, and we'll grab the points with the home underdog.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL teams playing with revenge from a playoff defeat in the previous season have covered 73.3% when installed as a double-digit underdog.  Even better:  home underdogs priced from +7 to +13 points have gone 43-16 ATS vs. defending Super Bowl champions.  Take Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Jacksonville.  Last week, Urban Meyer's Jaguars upset Buffalo, 9-6, as a massive 14.5-point underdog.  Can they pull off back-to-back upsets?  It's definitely not likely, for several reasons.  First, last week's game was at home, vs. a non-division foe, while this is on the road, against a division rival.  And NFL road underdogs of more than 4 points have gone 13-98 SU and 35-73-3 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog of more than 4 points.  Likewise, NFL teams off upset wins at home vs. non-division foes have gone 94-129 ATS on the road vs. division rivals, including 38-68 ATS vs. foes off a SU win.  Take the Colts minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Colorado.  Last year, the Buffaloes upset UCLA, 48-42, in Boulder, as a 7-point home underdog.  But with revenge on its mind, we'll lay the points with the Bruins, as it falls into a 68-36 ATS system of mind, which plays on certain rested home teams vs. unrested foes.  Even worse, last week, the Buffaloes upset Oregon State, 37-34, as an 11.5-point home dog.  Unfortunately, over the last 42 years, unrested teams off home upset wins have covered just 32.4% on the road vs. rested conference foes.  Take UCLA to blow out Colorado.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Rebels + the points over Texas A&M.  The Aggies have won (and covered) four straight games, dating back to their stunning upset of then-undefeated Alabama.  We played on the Aggies in that upset win, but will step in and go against them as a road favorite in Oxford.  Texas A&M has gone 25-63 ATS away from home in the regular season vs. .636 (or better) foes, including 4-12 ATS as a favorite, if A&M won at home the previous game.  Take Ole Miss.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Fresno State Bulldogs minus the points over New Mexico.  The Bulldogs were shocked last week, 40-14, as a 4.5-point home favorite by Boise State.  But off that upset loss, in which they failed to cover the spread by more than 30 points, we'll look for Fresno to bounce back this evening.  This is Fresno's final home game of the year, and teams playing their final home game, off a loss by 20+ points, have gone 46-22 ATS when favored by 14+ points.  Take the Bulldogs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers minus the points over Stanford.  It's not often that one finds a team which has lost its last 11 meetings to an opponent also favored by more than 11 against that same opponent.  But that's our situation today, and we'll lay the points with the revenge-minded Beavers.  Oregon State comes into this game off back to back upset losses at California, and at Colorado.  The good news is that they're playing a 3-6 Stanford team which is off 4 straight SU/ATS defeats, including a 52-7 loss to Utah last Friday.  We'll lay the points with the Beavers, as NCAA teams off back to back ATS losses as a road favorite have bounced back to cover 60% since 1980 vs. losing opposition.  Take Oregon State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Purdue.  The Boilers will look to make it three-upsets-in-a-row when they visit the Big 10-leading Buckeyes in Columbus.  Last week, the Boilermakers knocked off then-undefeated Michigan State, 40-29, as a 2.5-point home underdog.  And the previous week, Purdue upset Nebraska, in Lincoln.  Unfortunately, NCAA teams fail to cover the spread more often than not following a win over an undefeated team (with a 5-0 or better record), including 31.5% when installed as a double-digit underdog vs. another good team, with a win percentage > .800.  Even worse for Purdue:  it catches Ohio State off back to back ATS losses to Penn State and Nebraska.  But the Buckeyes are 17-6 ATS vs. .666 (or better) Big 10 foes, if the Buckeyes were off back to back ATS losses to Big 10 foes.  Take Ohio State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns minus the points over Troy.  Billy Napier's men have won 8 straight games, and have sewn up their Sun Belt division championship.  Their next goal is to earn home field advantage in the Sun Belt Title game played next month.  To that end, I don't expect a letdown this afternoon vs. Troy.  Last week, the Cajuns failed to cover the spread vs. Georgia State.  But that sets up our play this afternoon, as Louisiana is 20-3-1 ATS on the road when not laying double-digits, if they were off a conference ATS loss in their previous game.  Finally, the Trojans are 0-6 ATS as a home dog priced from +3.5 to +9.5 points.  Take Louisiana Lafayette minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Iowa.  The Gophers stumbled last week at home vs. Illinois, but had won (and covered) four straight prior to that.  They'll now take on a scuffling Iowa team which has dropped its last three to the point spread.  And Iowa's offense has managed a meager 31 points combined in its three previous games.  I'm not a fan of playing on College Football teams that can't score.  Indeed, NCAA teams off 3 ATS losses, that have scored 31 or less combined points in those three games, have covered just 5 of 25 when not getting more than 17 points (and just 1 off 11 when installed as a favorite).  Take Minnesota + the points over Iowa.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over UAB.  Marshall comes into this game off 4 straight wins, and 3 straight covers, which sets them up in several 'momentum' systems of mine that have records of 93-50, 45-17 and 244-138 ATS since 1980.  Additionally, the Herd plays this game with revenge from a loss to UAB last season.  And Marshall is 15-3 SU and 12-6 ATS as a revenge-minded home favorite.  Lay the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Oklahoma.  The Bears are 7-2, but lost last week, 30-28, as a 7.5-point favorite in Fort Worth against TCU.  We played against the Bears as a road favorite in that game, but will switch gears, and take the points with Dave Aranda's men as a home dog against the 9-0 Sooners.  Indeed, over the last 42 seasons, home dogs of less than 8 points, with a > .750 win percentage, have covered 89% after getting upset on the road in their previous game.  And Baylor's 23-6 ATS at home vs. foes not off a loss, including 10-0 ATS if Baylor wasn't laying 2+ points.  Take the home dog Bears.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Pitt Panthers minus the points over the North Carolina Tar Heels.  Mack Brown's men handed Wake Forest its first loss in nine games, with a thrilling, come-from-behind, 58-55 victory in Chapel Hill last Saturday.  We played on North Carolina in that game, but will fade them in the Steel City tonight, as teams off wins over undefeated teams (with an 8-0 or better record) are a soft 38% ATS since 1980 on the road, including just 26% ATS vs. winning foes.  North Carolina is 0-11 ATS off a home win over a conference foe, and a dreadful 11-28 ATS on the conference road against foes with a better conference record, if the Tar Heels weren't getting more than 10 points.  Meanwhile, Pitt is 32-16 ATS vs. winning conference foes, if the Panthers defeated a conference foe in their previous game.  Take the Panthers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes + the points over Central Michigan.  We played on Kent State last week against Northern Illinois, and were rewarded with a 52-47 win (and cover).  And we also played on Central Michigan, as a 9-point road underdog vs. Western Michigan, and the Chips won that game outright, 42-30.  But off that huge road upset win, we'll fade the Chippewas tonight.  Indeed, Central Michigan has covered just 2 of 12 MAC Conference games following an upset win in a game they were an underdog of +3 (or more) points.  And they're 4-10 their last 14 games as home favorites vs. conference foes.  Meanwhile, Kent State is 6-0 ATS off a SU/ATS win, if its opponent is off an upset win.  And the road team has covered 5 of 7 in this series.  Finally, MAC teams off upset wins as a dog of more than 7 points, have covered their subsequent game vs. a conference foe just 39% of the time.  Grab the points with Kent State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls + the points over the Miami-Ohio RedHawks.  Bulls QB Kyle Vantrease left their previous game following a sack, but Buffalo coach Maurice Linguist stated last Thursday that he "fully expect[s] [him] to be ready."  But if Vantrease happens to be unavailable, then the Bulls will turn to back-up Matt Myers, who started five of Buffalo's games during the 2019 season.  In their last game, the Bulls were favored by 13.5, but were stunned by Bowling Green, 56-44.  And the Falcons not only came into the game ranked #119 in the country in scoring (19.5 ppg), but they hadn't won a conference game since November 2, 2019 - a string of 12 straight MAC defeats.  But off that embarrassing loss, I expect coach Linguist to have his players' full attention this week, especially since they need to win at least 2 of their final 3 games to attain Bowl eligibility.  For technical support, consider that NCAA teams off upset home losses, as a favorite of -13 (or more) points, to conference foes with an 0-4 (or worse) conference record, have bounced back nicely in their next game to cover the spread 73.9% of the time since 1980.  Grab the points with Buffalo.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over the Green Bay Packers.  This game should have been a showcase for the two best quarterbacks in the game, but Aaron Rodgers contracted COVID-19, so he's on the shelf.  Jordan Love will now start for the Packers, so there's quite a mismatch behind center.  Green Bay has been terrific with Rodgers starting at quarterback (127-86-5 ATS in his career), but has burned money when he's been sidelined (7-11 ATS).  It's true that the Packers are on a 7-game SU/ATS win streak.  But NFL underdogs of more than 6 points, off 4 (or more) wins, have gone 1-17 SU and 3-15 ATS in the regular season vs. foes not off a SU/ATS win.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points with Kansas City.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

t 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs OVER the total.  The Packers have played their last five games 'under' the total, while the Chiefs have played their last 3 'under.'  Now, with 2020 MVP Aaron Rodgers sidelined, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game with Jordan Love at quarterback for Green Bay.  But consider that games involving one team off 5+ unders vs. another team off 3+ unders have gone OVER the total 55% of the time, including 63% when the O/U line has been greater than 40 points.  And the Chiefs also fall into a 126-76 Totals system of mine which indicates that they will go OVER the total.  This will be a high-scoring game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Arizona.  We played on the 49ers in the first meeting, and lost as a 5-point underdog, 17-10.  We'll take San Francisco to avenge that defeat in this rematch, as it falls into several of my favorite NFL systems, which have records of 243-148, 40-19, 224-141, and 225-128 ATS since 1980.  Even worse for Arizona.  It lost its first game, as a 6.5-point home favorite, vs. Green Bay last week.  But, dating back to 1987, .680 (or better) teams, off an upset loss, have cashed just 33.9% vs. foes off a straight-up win.  That doesn't bode well for Arizona to bounce back.  Take the Niners minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  The Cowboys have covered each of their first 7 games.  Unfortunately, NFL teams that start the season with a 4-0 (or better) ATS record have covered just 39.4% at home vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  With the Broncos, indeed, off a SU/ATS win last week vs. Washington, the elements of our angle are satisfied.  Denver also falls into 224-121 and 191-97 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams with winning ATS records.  Grab the points with the Broncos.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Buffalo.  The Jaguars finally got into the win column two games ago, when they beat Miami, but then lost to the Seahawks, 31-7, last week.  The Jags have been installed as a double-digit home underdog vs. the 5-2 Bills.  And it's been very profitable over the years to take double-digit home dogs, and especially if they were competitive in at least one of their two previous games, and their opponent wasn't off a SU loss.  In this situation, our double-digit home dogs have gone 84-48-2 ATS.  Even better, home dogs off a 23-point loss have gone 178-122 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes.  Take the Jaguars + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Cleveland.  Last week, we played against the Bengals following their huge upset win at Baltimore.  So, it wasn't a surprise that they suffered the biggest upset of any NFL team this season when they lost, 34-31, as a 10.5-point favorite to the New York Jets.  But off that embarrassing defeat, we'll take the Bengals to bounce back strong in this division rivalry.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, teams that lost on the road as a double-digit favorite have bounced back to cover the spread 60% of the time, including 80% ATS if they weren't favored by 3 points in the current game!  Even better:  the Bengals are 16-4 ATS their last 20 division home games when priced from -2 to -5.5 points.  Take the Bengals minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over the New Orleans Saints.  Last week, we played on the Saints in their upset win, as a 4-point home dog, over the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers.  But teams generally suffer letdowns following such games, and are a wallet-busting 39% ATS after a home upset win over defending champions, including 10-24 ATS their last 24 if they were an underdog of 4+ points in that upset win.  We also played against the Falcons last week, and got the $$$ when Carolina upset Atlanta on the road.   But I expect a bounce-back here, as the Falcons are a super 24-9 their last 33 as a road underdog, including 15-3 ATS if they weren't off a win in their previous game.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over Southern Cal.  This is a horrible weekend for USC to make the trip to Tempe.  Last week, the Sun Devils were upset here, at home, by Washington State.  And Arizona State was a 16.5-point favorite in that game.  To say the Sun Devils will want to make amends for that embarrassing loss is an understatement.  Even worse, it was ASU's second straight loss, as they fell at Utah in their game before that.  It's true that Southern Cal has won the last two meetings in this series, and the last three meetings here, in Tempe.  But revenge-minded Pac-12 Conference teams, off back to back losses, and favored by 8+ points at home, have covered 13 games in a row.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Washington.  Mario Cristobal's Ducks are ranked #4 in the latest NCAA Football rankings, and will be out to prove they deserve this lofty position when they take on the Huskies tonight, in Seattle.  Last week, the Ducks fell short "in Vegas," as they won by 23 vs. Colorado, but failed to cover the 24.5-point spread.  Unfortunately for Washington, it's a horrid 7-29 ATS at home vs. conference foes off a conference point spread defeat.  Oregon also fits a very strong 279-189 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off ATS losses.  Lay the points with the Ducks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over South Carolina.  The Gators lost last week to #1-ranked Georgia -- their 2nd consecutive defeat -- and will no doubt want to take out their frustrations on the over-matched Gamecocks.  At 4-4 on the season, Florida needs two more wins to qualify for the post-season, and I expect it to go all out today in Columbia.  The Gators are big road favorites, but NCAA teams that are favored by 20+ points, have gone 27-12 ATS off back to back losses, if they failed to cover the spread in those two defeats by 9+ points.  Take Florida minus the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points over Houston.  We played on Houston last Saturday, and they rewarded us with a win over then-undefeated SMU.  But off that big, emotional win, I look for a letdown today.  Indeed, the Cougars fall into a negative 22-67 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off wins over top-tier opponents.  And the Bulls are in a great spot here, off their blowout loss at East Carolina, as they're 10-1 ATS off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the Bulls as a big home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over LSU.  Nick Saban's men come into this game with an extra week off to rest, and prepare for LSU.  The Crimson Tide are 23-10 ATS in the regular season when playing with an extra week of rest, and favored by 6+ points.  Meanwhile, the Tigers are 23-40 ATS in the regular season when playing a rested opponent.  Finally, 'Bama is 7-0 SU/ATS at home the past two seasons vs. SEC Conference foes.  Lay the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over NC State.  The Wolfpack won SU/ATS last season in Raleigh vs. these Seminoles, 38-22, as a 13-point home favorite.  But that triumph has triggered super 91-32 and 197-97 ATS revenge systems (that we also used last night on Boston College).  Additionally, the Wolfpack have struggled on the road in competitively-priced games with point spreads of 7.5 (or less) points, as they've gone 14-35-2 ATS, including 2-15 ATS vs. revenge-minded conference opponents.  Finally, Florida State is 7-1 ATS as a single-digit underdog, when playing with revenge against a conference foe.  Take Florida State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Baylor.  Gary Patterson's tenure as TCU head coach has ended mid-way through his 21st season, so veteran coach Jerry Kill will take over for the rest of the season.  TCU has nowhere to go but up, in my opinion, following three double-digit SU/ATS losses to Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Kansas State.  And this point spread is inflated following the news of Patterson's departure, so I like the value with the Horned Frogs.  TCU has covered 11 of the last 14 meetings against Baylor.  And Baylor's 11-25 ATS vs. foes off three losses, including 0-9 ATS away from home vs. non-winning foes.  Take TCU + the points.

At 3:30 pm our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish minus the points over Navy.  The Irish will welcome the Midshipmen to South Bend, as they look for their 4th straight win and cover following last week's 44-34 home victory over North Carolina.  Meanwhile, Navy upset Tulsa on the road last Friday, 20-17, as a 12-point road dog.  But that upset win has triggered several negative systems of mine that go against Navy, including one with a 94-36 ATS record since 1980.  The Irish are 14-3-3 ATS vs. foes off upset wins, if that foe also covered the spread by 15+ points in its upset victory.  Take Notre Dame.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers + the points over Oklahoma State.  WVU comes into this game off back to back wins over TCU and Iowa State.   And last week's win was most impressive, as the Mountaineers were a 7.5-point underdog against the then-22nd-ranked Cyclones.  This afternoon, WVU is once again a home underdog against #11 Oklahoma State, which enters on a 6-game ATS win streak.  Even though Okie State is red-hot, we'll grab the points with Neal Brown's men, as Big 12 Conference underdogs, off back to back wins, have gone 42-15 ATS at home, or on a neutral field, in the regular season when playing a conference foe which didn't fail to cover the spread in its previous game.  Take the Mountaneers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels minus the points over Wake Forest.  This is an odd situation, as it matches up two ACC schools, but -- because of scheduling limitations -- will be a "non-conference" game for the Conference standings!  We played on the undefeated Demon Deacons in their last road game -- a 70-56 rout of Army on Oct 23 -- but will now go the other way and play against them on Tobacco Road.  On the surface, it may look difficult to take North Carolina, given that it's off a double-digit loss to Notre Dame last week, and has failed to cover each of its last three games. But consider that undefeated teams, with a record of 5-0 or better, are a poor 38% ATS away from home the past 42 seasons vs. foes off three ATS losses.  Wake Forest's perfect season ends today.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11:30 am, in an EARLY game, our selection is on the Army Black Knights + the points over Air Force.  This game will be played on a neutral field, in Arlington, Texas.  And each of this teams come into this morning's game off losses to what was -- at least then -- an undefeated opponent.  Army was wiped out, 70-56, by unbeaten Wake Forest two weeks ago, while Air Force lost two weeks ago at home, as a 3-point favorite, to then-undefeated San Diego State.  Unfortunately, Air Force's upset defeat sets it up in a negative 43-115 ATS system today which goes against certain winning teams off upset losses.  Even worse:  the Falcons are 1-15 ATS their last 16 away from home off an upset loss!  Grab the points with Army.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles + the points over Virginia Tech.  The Eagles are 0-4 SU in ACC play, with blowout losses (by 14+ points) in each of their last three games.  That sets them up well for this game, as home teams that are off a SU/ATS loss, and are winless in conference play (with an 0-4 or worse record), have cashed 58.4% the past 42 years vs. foes off a point spread win.  Moreover, Boston College falls into a great 196-97 ATS revenge system of mine, based on their 40-14 loss at Virginia Tech last season.  Take the Eagles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts UNDER the total.  The Jets have played their last four games OVER, including a 34-31 upset of the Bengals last week.  Meanwhile, the Colts have played four of their last 5 OVER, including a 34-31 overtime loss to Tennessee last week.  So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a high-scoring game tonight.  But I don't see it that way, as my numbers project a relatively low-scoring game.  Indeed, games involving a team off 4+ overs, with over/under lines of 45+ points, have gone 'under' 57% majority of the time when their opponent was also off 2+ overs.  Likewise, in matchups between two teams that were each involved in high-scoring (59+ points) games their last time out, the 'under' has cashed 67.8% over the past 36+ seasons when the over/under line ranged from 45 to 52 points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes minus the points over Northern Illinois.  The Huskies won at Central Michigan in their last game, 39-38, as a 6-point road underdog.  Unfortunately, Mid-American Conference road teams have covered just 34% of conference games since 1999 as underdogs following an upset win over a conference foe as a 5-point (or greater) underdog.  Admittedly, the Huskies have dominated this series with 10 straight wins vs. Kent State.  But they were favored to win nine of those 10 games (by an average of 10.5 ppg), including -14.5, -7, -8, -25.5, -7 and -23 in the past six seasons.  Tonight, though, Kent has been installed as a home favorite for the first time in this series.  And they fall into an 81-44 ATS revenge system of mine.  Take the Golden Flashes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas + the points over Western Michigan.  The Chips come into this game off an upset home loss at the hands of Northern Illinois.  Central Michigan was favored by 6 points, but lost, 39-38.  Western Michigan also lost its last game, as it fell at Toledo, 34-15, as a 1.5-point favorite.  We'll take the points with the Chippewas, as Mid-American Conference teams are 35-10 ATS off an upset home loss, if they were playing an opponent also off a straight-up loss, including 20-3 ATS if our team was favored by 4+ points in their previous game.  Take Central Michigan + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Dallas.  The Cowboys have won five straight games, yet find themselves installed as a road underdog tonight, as they might be without their quarterback, Dak Prescott, who is a 'game-time decision.'  We'll lay the points with Minnesota, and play against Dallas, as .800 (or better) NFL underdogs, at Game 7 forward, have covered just 31% of non-division games since 1980 when matched up against a non-winning opponent.  Take the Vikings to hand Dallas its first loss since Week 1.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the ponts over Tampa Bay.  The defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers routed the Chicago Bears, 38-3, last weekend.  Unfortunately, defending Super Bowl champs have covered just 33% as road favorites the following week after winning by 20+ points.  Moreover, Sean Payton has gone 59-27 ATS as coach of the Saints vs. .500 (or better) foes off a SU win.  Take New Orleans + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams and Houston Texans to go OVER the total.  The Rams are averaging 29.57 ppg, and have scored 28, 38, and 26 over their last three games.  They will surely put up points against a Texans club which has surrendered 31, 31 and 25 over its last three outings.  And while it's true that Houston's offense has its own issues, it did put up 22 vs. a very good Patriots defense here in its most recent home game.  And it's averaging 22.66 ppg at home this season (compared to just 7.25 ppg on the road).  I expect Houston to put up a much better fight this afternoon in front of its home faithful than it did on the road the past two weeks.  And the OVER also falls into a 62-31 Totals system of mine.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals UNDER the total.  This is the Bengals 3rd straight road game, and they exploded for 34 and 41 points in their first two.  Unfortunately that offensive output is unlikely to occur for a 3rd straight road game, as NFL teams that scored more than 28 in back to back road games only average 15.75 ppg in the 3rd road game.  And those games have gone 'under' the total by an average of 5.06 ppg.  The UNDER also falls into a super 92-46 Totals system of mine, and we'll look for a low-scoring game on Sunday.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over Buffalo.  These two teams met earlier this season, and the Bills walloped the Dolphins, 35-0.  We'll take Miami in the rematch as a huge double digit underdog, as NFL teams that played with revenge from a shutout loss earlier in the season, have cashed 70% when getting more than 4 points.  Additionally, since 1980, NFL teams playing with revenge from a loss by 35+ points have covered 68.4% vs. .666 (or better) division foes.  Take Miami + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Tennessee.  The Titans pulled off a big upset last week, when they knocked off Kansas City, 27-3, as a 4-point home underdog.  And that was the 2nd straight upset win at home by Tennessee.  But they're now playing on the road, and against a division foe which will seek revenge from a 9-point loss in Nashville, in September.  We'll go against Tennessee, as unrested road underdogs have covered just 38.7% over the last 42 seasons following back to back home upset wins.  Take Indianapolis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Cincinnati.  The 5-2 Bengals come into New York off a huge divisional upset win over the Baltimore Ravens, as they snapped Baltimore's 5-game win streak.  But NFL road favorites have covered just 28% since 1980 after an upset win as a 6-point (or greater) underdog, if that upset win involved two teams with .666 (or better) win percentages.  I look for a big letdown by the Bengals on the road.  Take the Jets + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Atlanta Falcons.  Carolina has lost its last 4 games in a row, but now fall into a 37-11 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams on long losing streaks, as well as a 51-32 ATS angle which plays on teams off outright losses as a road favorite, when matched up against opponents off SU/ATS wins as a road favorite.  With Carolina, indeed, off an upset, 25-3, loss on the road at New York, and Atlanta in off a road favorite SU/ATS win over the Dolphins, we'll grab the points with Carolina this afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Houston Cougars over the SMU Mustangs.  This is a great Lone Star State match-up in the American Athletic Conference, as Dana Holgorsen's Cougars are 6-1, while Sonny Dykes' Mustangs are a game better, at 7-0.  The Ponies come into this game off a 55-26 blowout win over Tulane, as a 14-point favorite.  But SMU is an awful 9-28 ATS on the conference road off a win by 7+ points over a conference foe.  And it's 13-37 ATS as a road underdog of +10 points or less (or PK).  Meanwhile, Houston is a powerful 24-10 ATS its last 34 vs. conference foes that were undefeated in conference play, and it's also 9-1 ATS its last 10 vs. conference rivals that owned a .900 (or better) season W/L percentage.  Finally, SMU falls into a negative 6-31-1 ATS system of mine, which goes against certain undefeated teams.  Take Houston to blow out the Mustangs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Kentucky.  Mississippi State lost, 24-2, at Kentucky last season, so they'll be out to avenge that defeat on Saturday.  The task will no doubt be tough, as Mark Stoops' Wildcats are 4-1 in the SEC this season (and 5-0 ATS), and 6-1 overall.  Still, Kentucky finds itself the road underdog in Starkville this evening.  In their last game, they lost for the first time this season, as #1-ranked Georgia handed Kentucky a 30-13 setback.  Off that first defeat, we'll fade Kentucky on the road against 4-3 Mississippi State, as teams that sustain their first loss, following a 5-0 (or better) start to the season have covered just 43% over the last 42 years, including an awful 24 of 70 away from home vs. sub-.600 teams.  This season, there have already been 4 teams that fell into this general "bubble-burst" system, and those teams went 1-3 ATS, including Coastal Carolina not covering this past Thursday vs. Troy (as a 17-point favorite), and Penn State losing outright to Illinois last Saturday as a 24.5-point favorite!  The Bulldogs are also 16-8 ATS their last 24 at home vs. .857 (or better) opposition.  And they're also 26-14 ATS when favored, and playing with revenge.  Take Mississippi State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over Texas El Paso.  The Miners are no doubt having strong season, as they're 6-1, including 3 straight wins to open their Conference USA schedule.  But .833 (or better) road underdogs of more than 5 points, with a 2-0 (or better) conference record, have covered just 36.7% of conference road games over the last 42 years.  And double-digit dogs have covered just 32.1% off 4 SU/ATS wins, if they're matched up against a conference foe off a double-digit win.  Florida Atlantic has won its three home games this season by 29, 37 and 32 points, and has won 11 straight at home dating back to November 9, 2019.  Even better:  since 2017, it's 24-4 SU and 15-9 ATS at home (including 7-0 ATS when priced from -8.5 to -15), and has covered the spread at home by an average of 7.34 ppg.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Texas Tech.  The Sooners are a perfect 8-0 on the season, but struggled last week in a 12-point win at Kansas, as a 38-point favorite.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the Sooners, who are burning money this season, at 3-5 ATS.  But consider that NCAA teams, off wins by less than 13 points as 35-point (or greater) favorites, have bounced back to cover the spread in their next game 68.4% of the time since 1980.  Additionally, Oklahoma falls into one of my favorite systems which is 278-189-8 ATS which plays on certain teams off ATS defeats.   The Sooners have won 9 straight in this series and they're 7-1 ATS their last 8 at home vs. the Red Raiders.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Florida State.  Dabo Swinney's men have yet to cover the point spread this season.  The result is that we're now getting point spread value on the Tigers in this home game vs. Florida State, as they're favored by less than 10 points.  And winless ATS teams, favored by single digits, with a winning SU record, have covered 63.8% vs. conference foes off a SU win.  Even better:  the Seminoles are 1-6 ATS off a cover by 21+ points, if playing a conference foe off a loss.  And Clemson is 42-23 ATS at home vs. ACC Conference foes when not laying 10+ points.  Take the Tigers.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over Florida International.  The Panthers won their opening game vs. Long Island, but have lost all six games since, including a 34-19 defeat at home to Western Kentucky last Saturday.  Florida International is now 0-3 this season in Conference USA games; 0-8 SU since Nov. 9, 2010; and has covered just 3 of its last 13 conference games.  And, to make matters worse, Marshall had last week off to rest and prepare for this game.  That's key, as the Panthers fall into a negative 28-69 ATS system of mine that goes against certain losing teams vs. a rested foe.  Lay the points with Marshall.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Wisconsin.  Kirk Ferentz's men have had two weeks to lick their wounds following their 17-point upset loss at the hands of Purdue, in Ames.  Then, the week after that game, Wisconsin blew out that same Purdue team by 17 points.  We actually had a huge play on Wisconsin last week.  But we will switch gears, and go against the Badgers as a home favorite on Saturday.  Indeed, I love playing on great teams, with an .833 (or better) win percentage, off double-digit losses as double-digit favorites, as such teams tend to rebound off those horrid upset defeats more often than not, and especially when not laying 20+ points, as they're 76% ATS over the last 41 seasons.  Moreover, Iowa is 20-8 ATS in Big 10 games off an upset conference loss, if they own a winning record.  Take the Hawkeyes + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Pitt Panthers minus the points over Miami-Fla.  The Panthers are on a roll, with 4 straight wins and covers.  And they'll welcome the Hurricanes to the Steel City on Saturday after Miami pulled off an upset against NC State last weekend.  But Miami is a wallet-breaking 1-12 ATS off a home win, while the Panthers are 17-5 ATS in conference games at home off a double-digit conference win.  And Pitt also falls into 113-42 and 270-178 ATS systems of mine that fade certain road teams off upset victories.  It's true that the Panthers' star WR, Jordan Addison (670 Yds, 10 TDs), who suffered a concussion last week, is a 'game-time decision.'  But Addison practiced in pads on Thursday, so even though he'll need medical clearance, there's optimism that he'll be on the field.  Regardless, we'll take Kenny Pickett & Co. on Saturday to blow out Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points over Illinois.  Last week, the Illini won a 9-overtime thriller vs. Penn State.  And the Illini were 24.5-point underdogs in that game.  Unfortunately, home underdogs off upset road wins as 17-point (or greater) underdogs have covered just 37% over the last 42 years.  Take Rutgers minus the points.